微軟 (MSFT) 2009 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Microsoft fiscal year 2009 first quarter earnings call.

歡迎參加 Microsoft 2009 財年第一季度財報電話會議。

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

Today's conference is being recorded.

今天的會議正在錄製中。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。

I will now hand off the call to Microsoft's Chief Financial Officer, Chris Liddell.

我現在將把電話轉給 Microsoft 的首席財務官 Chris Liddell。

Mr.

先生。

Liddell, please go ahead.

利德爾，請繼續。

Thank you and good afternoon, everyone and thanks for joining us today.

謝謝大家，大家下午好，感謝今天加入我們。

I want to start the call by introducing Bill Koefeod as the new General Manager, Investor Relations.

我想通過介紹 Bill Koefeod 為新任投資者關係總經理來開始電話會議。

Bill was previously the General Manager of Finance for our IT organization supporting our CIO here internally at Microsoft, and I'm delighted to have him on the team and I'll now turn the call over to him for our normal introduction.

Bill 之前是我們 IT 組織的財務總經理，在 Microsoft 內部為我們的 CIO 提供支持，我很高興他能加入團隊，現在我將把電話轉給他進行正常的介紹。

Thank you for the welcome, Chris.

謝謝你的歡迎，克里斯。

I'm excited to have this role and I'm looking forward to meeting with our analysts and investors in the coming weeks and months.

我很高興能擔任這個角色，我期待在未來幾周和幾個月內與我們的分析師和投資者會面。

We're also joined today on this call by Frank Brod, Corporate Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, and John Seethoff, Deputy General Counsel.

今天，公司副總裁兼首席會計官 Frank Brod 和副總法律顧問 John Seethoff 也加入了本次電話會議。

The format for today's call will be relatively unchanged from recent earnings calls.

今天電話會議的格式將與最近的財報電話會議相比沒有變化。

Chris will summarize some of the key take-aways for the quarter.

克里斯將總結本季度的一些關鍵要點。

I'll then provide details around our first quarter results and then hand it back to Chris for a more detailed discussion of our guidance for the second quarter and for the remainder of fiscal year 2009.

然後，我將提供有關我們第一季度業績的詳細信息，然後將其交還給克里斯，以更詳細地討論我們對第二季度和 2009 財年剩餘時間的指導。

After that, we'll take your questions.

之後，我們將回答您的問題。

Please be aware that we filed our Form 10Q today in conjunction with our earnings release.

請注意，我們今天連同我們的收益發布一起提交了表格 10Q。

Therefore, you have available the earnings release, MD&A, financial statements, and food notes.

因此，您可以獲得收益發布、MD&A、財務報表和食品說明。

We have also posted our quarterly financial summary slide deck, which is intended to follow the flow of our prepared remarks in order to assist you.

我們還發布了我們的季度財務摘要幻燈片，旨在按照我們準備好的評論流程為您提供幫助。

The slide deck offers highlights from the quarter, outlines our guidance, and provides a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will talk about today.

幻燈片提供了本季度的亮點，概述了我們的指導，並提供了我們今天將要討論的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間差異的協調。

You can find the earnings release, the Form 10Q, and the quarterly financial summary slide deck on the Investor Relations website at www.microsoft.com/MSFT.

您可以在投資者關係網站 www.microsoft.com/MSFT 上找到收益發布、Form 10Q 和季度財務摘要幻燈片。

Today's call will be recorded.

今天的通話將被錄音。

Please be aware that if you decide to ask a question it will be included in both our live transmission as well as any future use of the recording.

請注意，如果您決定提出問題，它將包含在我們的實時傳輸以及將來對錄音的任何使用中。

As always, shareholders and analysts can listen to a live webcast of today's call at the Microsoft Investor Relations website.

與往常一樣，股東和分析師可以在微軟投資者關係網站上收聽今天電話會議的網絡直播。

A replay of the call will be available at the same site through the close of business on October 23, 2009.

到 2009 年 10 月 23 日營業結束時，將在同一地點重播電話會議。

This conference call is protected by copyright law and international treaties.

本次電話會議受版權法和國際條約的保護。

Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of this report or any portion of it may result in criminal and civil penalties.

未經授權複製或分發本報告或其任何部分可能會導致刑事和民事處罰。

Any recording or other use or transmission of the text or audio of today's call is not allowed without the express permission of Microsoft.

未經 Microsoft 明確許可，不得對今天通話的文本或音頻進行任何錄音或其他使用或傳輸。

We will be making statements during this call that are forward-looking.

我們將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性聲明。

These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述基於當前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Any results could differ materially because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the risk factors section of our Form 10Q, our most recent Form 10K, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

由於今天的收益新聞稿、本次電話會議期間的評論以及我們的 10Q 表格、我們最近的 10K 表格以及其他報告和提交給證券公司的報告和文件的風險因素部分中討論的因素，任何結果都可能存在重大差異交易委員會。

We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.

我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

And now, I'll return the call over to Chris.

現在，我會把電話轉給克里斯。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

I'll begin with highlights from our first quarter performance and outlook for the rest of the fiscal 2009.

我將從第一季度業績的亮點和 2009 財年剩餘時間的展望開始。

We delivered strong first quarter financial results with revenue, operating income and earnings per share all meeting or exceeding the high end of our guidance despite what was obviously a very challenging environment.

儘管環境顯然非常具有挑戰性，但我們交付了強勁的第一季度財務業績，收入、營業收入和每股收益均達到或超過了我們指引的高端。

Let me just mention a few key items of our first quarter.

讓我只提一下我們第一季度的幾個關鍵項目。

Revenue from Microsoft Business Division and Server and Tools segments grew a combined $1.3 billion, or 19%, driven by healthy demand from enterprise customers.

在企業客戶健康需求的推動下，微軟業務部門和服務器和工具部門的收入合計增長了 13 億美元，即 19%。

Client revenue grew 2% with growth impacted by the expected reduction of Q4 channel inventory and a shift of the sales mix to lower price Netbook and the units sold in emerging markets.

客戶收入增長 2%，增長受到第四季度渠道庫存預期減少以及銷售組合轉向低價上網本和在新興市場銷售的單位的影響。

Consumer demand for the Xbox 360 resulted in the outperformance by Entertainment and Devices division.

消費者對 Xbox 360 的需求導致娛樂和設備部門表現出色。

Our Online Services business grew revenue a very good 15% in a challenging online advertising environment.

在充滿挑戰的在線廣告環境中，我們的在線服務業務收入增長了 15%，非常可觀。

We refreshed our product lineup with several important releases and we also increased the dividend by 18%, and announced a new $40 billion share repurchase authorization.

我們通過幾個重要版本更新了我們的產品陣容，我們還將股息提高了 18%，並宣布了一項新的 400 億美元的股票回購授權。

While we're pleased with the overall results, the macroeconomic environment clearly weakened throughout the quarter.

雖然我們對整體結果感到滿意，但整個季度的宏觀經濟環境明顯減弱。

Like many other companies we experienced deterioration in the spending environment over the last few weeks of the quarter, which has continued into October.

與許多其他公司一樣，我們在本季度的最後幾周經歷了支出環境的惡化，這種情況一直持續到 10 月。

Accordingly, we're updating our business outlook to reflect the increased risks and the likelihood of a continued economic slowdown.

因此，我們正在更新我們的業務前景，以反映風險增加和經濟持續放緩的可能性。

In July, we indicated that our guidance was based on an expectation that economic conditions would improve in the second half of our fiscal year, and this clearly now appears unlikely to occur.

7 月，我們表示我們的指導是基於對本財年下半年經濟狀況將改善的預期，而現在看來這顯然不太可能發生。

We're not economic forecasters and as such, there is a high degree of uncertainty in our outlook based on the state of the economy.

我們不是經濟預測者，因此，基於經濟狀況，我們的前景存在高度不確定性。

As a result, we've adjusted our guidance approach as follows.

因此，我們對指導方法進行瞭如下調整。

At the top end we're assuming a mild recession, and a relatively modest growth rate for all IT-based products.

在最高端，我們假設所有基於 IT 的產品都會出現溫和的衰退和相對溫和的增長率。

While at the bottom end we're assuming a deeper recession in the economy and (inaudible) lower growth for IT.

雖然在底部，我們假設經濟衰退更加嚴重，並且（聽不清）IT 增長放緩。

Clearly there is a possibility that the economy recovers faster than we predict or that it deteriorates more severely.

顯然，經濟復甦的速度可能比我們預期的要快，或者惡化的程度更嚴重。

In all scenarios we're focused on maintaining the positive delta in growth rates between our revenues and the overall IT environment.

在所有情況下，我們都專注於保持收入與整體 IT 環境之間的正增長增量。

We feel extremely good about our relative competitive position, our ability to continue growing faster than general IT spending and our ability to deliver value to our customers in this environment.

我們對我們的相對競爭地位、繼續以比一般 IT 支出更快的速度增長的能力以及在這種環境下為客戶創造價值的能力感到非常滿意。

We believe our exceptionally strong cash flow, high unearned revenue, and $25 billion in cash and investments on hand will allow us to weather any economic contraction in relatively better terms than most.

我們相信，我們異常強勁的現金流、高額未實現收入以及 250 億美元的現金和手頭投資將使我們能夠以比大多數人更好的條件抵禦任何經濟收縮。

It's also clearly important to keep perspective.

保持觀點也很重要。

We still foresee an increase in demand for our products and the potential to drive revenue and earnings per share growth from high single to low double-digits this financial year, which will be an exceptional performance in this environment.

我們仍然預計對我們產品的需求會增加，並且有可能推動本財政年度的收入和每股收益從高個位數增長到低兩位數，這在這種環境下將是一個非凡的表現。

So with those high level themes, I'm going to turn the call over to Bill now for more details on how we closed out the first quarter.

因此，對於這些高級主題，我現在將把電話轉給比爾，以了解有關我們如何結束第一季度的更多詳細信息。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

I'll discuss top line financial and business momentum points, followed by revenue performance for each of our business units.

我將討論頂級財務和業務動力點，然後是我們每個業務部門的收入表現。

Then I'll review the rest of the income statement.

然後我將查看損益表的其餘部分。

All growth comparisons relate to the comparable quarter of last year unless otherwise specified.

除非另有說明，否則所有增長比較均與去年可比季度有關。

In the first quarter, we met or exceeded our high end guidance for revenue, operating income, and earnings per share.

在第一季度，我們達到或超過了我們對收入、營業收入和每股收益的高端指導。

Revenue grew over 9% to $15.1 billion, approximately $150 million above our high end guidance.

收入增長超過 9% 至 151 億美元，比我們的高端指導高出約 1.5 億美元。

Our annuity sales mix, which is approximately 25% of our billed revenue, grew over 3 percentage points year-over-year.

我們的年金銷售組合約占我們賬單收入的 25%，同比增長超過 3 個百分點。

Enterprise agreement renewal rates were in line with historical trends.

企業協議續簽率符合歷史趨勢。

The remainder of our product billing for the quarter was approximately 35% from OEMs, about 20% from license-only sales, and the balance from our other businesses.

本季度我們剩餘的產品賬單大約 35% 來自 OEM，大約 20% 來自僅許可銷售，其餘來自我們的其他業務。

Our unearned revenue grew over 16% to $13.5 billion, but was down sequentially from the prior quarter.

我們的未實現收入增長了 16% 以上，達到 135 億美元，但比上一季度環比下降。

This sequential decline was in line with our guidance and followed normal seasonal patterns.

這種連續下降符合我們的指導並遵循正常的季節性模式。

Our contracted not billed balance increased both sequentially and year-over-year to over $13 billion.

我們的合同未開票餘額環比和同比均增加至超過 130 億美元。

When taken together with reported revenue, total bookings for the Company increased 6% this quarter on top of our over 30% total bookings growth reported in Q1 FY'08.

與報告的收入一起，本季度公司的總預訂量在 08 財年第一季度報告的總預訂量增長超過 30% 的基礎上增加了 6%。

Overall, changes in foreign exchange rates added about 3 percentage points to our revenue growth.

總體而言，外匯匯率的變化為我們的收入增長增加了約 3 個百分點。

Now I will provide revenue highlights by business segment starting with Windows clients.

現在，我將從 Windows 客戶端開始按業務部門提供收入亮點。

Client revenue grew 2% to $4.2 billion, missing guidance by 4 percentage points.

客戶收入增長 2% 至 42 億美元，低於預期 4 個百分點。

I'll review the main drivers behind client revenue that contributed to this performance beginning with PC unit growth.

我將回顧客戶收入背後的主要驅動因素，這些驅動因素從 PC 單位增長開始促成了這一業績。

We estimate that the PC unit growth rate for the quarter was between 10% and 12%.

我們估計本季度的 PC 單位增長率在 10% 至 12% 之間。

While this tracks to the overall forecast we provided in July, the underlying mix was different than we expected entering the quarter.

雖然這與我們在 7 月份提供的總體預測相符，但基本組合與我們進入本季度的預期不同。

Specifically, growth of traditional PC units was several points lower than we expected.

具體而言，傳統 PC 部門的增長比我們預期的要低幾個點。

This was offset by growth in the new low end Netbook segment.

這被新的低端上網本細分市場的增長所抵消。

From a geographic perspective, we estimate mature market traditional PC growth of flat to low single digits with Netbooks adding about 8 points to the growth.

從地域角度來看，我們估計成熟市場傳統 PC 增長持平至低個位數，上網本增加約 8 個百分點。

In emerging markets, we continued to see strong double-digit growth across all segments.

在新興市場，我們繼續看到所有細分市場的強勁兩位數增長。

During the quarter, our Windows OEM licensed units increased by 8%, a few points lower than the overall hardware market.

在本季度，我們的 Windows OEM 許可單位增長了 8%，比整體硬件市場低幾個點。

The shortfall between OEM unit growth and hardware growth was primarily driven by inventory reductions in the OEM channel.

OEM 單位增長與硬件增長之間的差距主要是由於 OEM 渠道的庫存減少所致。

As we mentioned in the last earnings call, we exited the fourth quarter with OEM channel inventory above historic norms, which were worked down during the quarter.

正如我們在上次財報電話會議中提到的那樣，我們在第四季度退出時 OEM 渠道庫存高於歷史標準，在本季度有所下降。

Despite healthy unit growth, OEM revenue declined 1% year-over-year as the average selling price declined.

儘管單位增長穩健，但由於平均售價下降，OEM 收入同比下降 1%。

This was primarily the result of two factors.

這主要是兩個因素的結果。

The mix shift to Netbook and continued mix shift to emerging markets, both of which have lower average selling prices than our historical average selling price.

混合轉向上網本並繼續混合轉向新興市場，這兩個市場的平均售價都低於我們的歷史平均售價。

At this stage it is too early to determine the extent to which the new Netbooks segment is cannibalizing the traditional consumer PC market sales or simply capturing a new market opportunity.

在這個階段，要確定新的上網本細分市場在多大程度上蠶食了傳統消費 PC 市場的銷售或只是抓住了新的市場機會，還為時過早。

So we believe that there are likely aspects of both.

所以我們認為兩者都有可能的方面。

That said, customers are increasingly opting for the value, diversity and choice that Microsoft Windows provides.

也就是說，客戶越來越多地選擇 Microsoft Windows 提供的價值、多樣性和選擇。

We have increased attach rates on these form factors to mirror the traditional PC market so we are well-positioned to participate in this segment.

我們提高了這些外形尺寸的附加率，以反映傳統的 PC 市場，因此我們已做好參與這一細分市場的準備。

The remainder of client revenue comes from commercial and retail licensing.

其餘的客戶收入來自商業和零售許可。

This portion of the business grew over 20% driven by continued strength in client annuity licensing as business customers recognize the value of our Windows Vista enterprise offering, including those that help them reduce costs by more efficiently managing their desktop infrastructure.

由於企業客戶認識到我們的 Windows Vista 企業產品的價值，包括那些通過更有效地管理其桌面基礎設施來幫助他們降低成本的產品，這部分業務增長了 20% 以上。

Our Server and Tools revenue grew 17% to $3.4 billion, marking the business' 25th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

我們的服務器和工具收入增長 17% 至 34 億美元，標誌著該業務連續第 25 個季度實現兩位數增長。

Annuity licensing grew faster than non-annuity licensing driving Server and Tools unearned revenue up over 28% from the prior year.

年金許可的增長速度快於非年金許可，推動服務器和工具的未實現收入比上一年增長了 28% 以上。

This reflects continued customer commitment to our long-term product road maps and underscores the increasingly critical role our server products perform in transforming customer's IT departments into strategic assets.

這反映了客戶對我們長期產品路線圖的持續承諾，並強調了我們的服務器產品在將客戶的 IT 部門轉變為戰略資產方面所發揮的日益重要的作用。

The releases during the quarter of SQL Server 2008 and Microsoft Hyper V Server 2008 demonstrated our ongoing commitment to help customers create more cost effective and flexible data centers.

SQL Server 2008 和 Microsoft Hyper V Server 2008 季度的發布證明了我們持續致力於幫助客戶創建更具成本效益和更靈活的數據中心。

Meanwhile, demand for our consulting and support services to deploy Microsoft technology remained strong, driving revenue growth of 19%.

同時，對我們部署微軟技術的諮詢和支持服務的需求依然強勁，推動收入增長 19%。

The Online Service business grew revenue 15% to $770 million.

在線服務業務的收入增長了 15%，達到 7.7 億美元。

Online advertising revenue also grew 15% with search revenue growing faster than display revenue.

在線廣告收入也增長了 15%，其中搜索收入的增長速度快於展示收入。

We continued to see healthy growth in our traffic with page views and query searches up both up on a sequential and year-over-year basis.

我們的流量繼續保持健康增長，頁面瀏覽量和查詢搜索量均按順序和同比增長。

During the quarter, we partnered with NBC to make the 2008 Beijing Olympics the largest ever media event on the web, showcasing Silver Light as it served up 70 million video streams and 600 million minutes of video content on NBCOlympics.com.

在本季度，我們與 NBC 合作，使 2008 年北京奧運會成為有史以來規模最大的網絡媒體活動，展示了 Silver Light，因為它在 NBCOlympics.com 上提供了 7000 萬個視頻流和 6 億分鐘的視頻內容。

As new online advertising models strive to increasingly differentiate based on user experience, Microsoft technologies like Silver Light become even more pivotal to our partner's success.

隨著新的在線廣告模式在用戶體驗的基礎上實現越來越多的差異化，Silver Light 等 Microsoft 技術對我們合作夥伴的成功變得更加關鍵。

Microsoft business division revenue was up 20% to $4.9 billion exceeding our high end guidance by 4 percentage points.

微軟業務部門收入增長 20% 至 49 億美元，超出我們的高端指引 4 個百分點。

Business revenue grew 16% driven by strong sales of enterprise agreements and client access license suites.

由於企業協議和客戶訪問許可套件的強勁銷售，業務收入增長了 16%。

Microsoft Office, SharePoint, Dynamics and Unified Communications all continued strong sales momentum.

Microsoft Office、SharePoint、Dynamics 和 Unified Communications 均保持強勁的銷售勢頭。

Consumer revenue grew 36% driven by higher than expected sales into the retail and OEM channels resulting from well received promotional pricing programs for the 2007 Microsoft Office system.

消費者收入增長了 36%，原因是零售和 OEM 渠道的銷售額高於預期，這是由於 2007 年 Microsoft Office 系統的促銷定價計劃廣受歡迎。

Entertainment and Devices division revenue declined 6% to $1.8 billion, but exceeded our high end guidance.

娛樂和設備部門的收入下降 6% 至 18 億美元，但超出了我們的高端指導。

The anticipated revenue decline due the comparison to the quarter a year ago that included the launch of Halo 3 was milder than expected due to stronger Xbox 360 console sales into the channel.

由於 Xbox 360 遊戲機銷售進入該渠道，與去年同期相比（包括 Halo 3 的推出），預期收入下降幅度低於預期。

We sold 2.2 million Xbox 360 consoles representing over 20% growth as retailers stocked inventory in front of the holiday season.

我們售出了 220 萬台 Xbox 360 遊戲機，增長超過 20%，因為零售商在假期前囤積了庫存。

Based on US MPD numbers released last week, Xbox 360 outsold PS3 by over 100,000 consoles during the quarter while achieving an industry leading game attach rate of 8.1.

根據上周公布的美國 MPD 數據，Xbox 360 在本季度的銷量超過 PS3 超過 100,000 台，同時達到了行業領先的 8.1 遊戲附加率。

Also, earlier this month at the Tokyo game show we announced that Xbox Live has over 14 million members, roughly doubling in membership for each of the last two years.

此外，本月早些時候在東京遊戲展上，我們宣布 Xbox Live 擁有超過 1400 萬會員，在過去兩年中每年的會員人數大約翻了一番。

In spite of console price cuts taken in the quarter and the absence of Halo 3, the Entertainment and Devices division increased operating income by 7%, expanding its operating margin by over a percentage point.

儘管本季度主機降價並且沒有 Halo 3，但娛樂和設備部門的營業收入增加了 7%，營業利潤率擴大了一個百分點以上。

Now for the rest of the income statement.

現在是損益表的其餘部分。

Cost of goods sold was $2.8 billion, and operating expenses were $6.2 billion.

商品銷售成本為 28 億美元，運營費用為 62 億美元。

Cost of goods sold as a percentage of revenue declined half a percentage point to 18.9%.

銷售成本佔收入的百分比下降了半個百分點至 18.9%。

This gross margin expansion was driven by lower console manufacturing, warranty and component costs, as well as a mix shift toward the lower cost Xbox 360 arcade console.

這種毛利率的增長是由較低的遊戲機製造、保修和組件成本以及向低成本 Xbox 360 街機遊戲機的混合轉變所推動的。

Operating income was $6 billion, up 3% from the year-ago period.

營業收入為 60 億美元，同比增長 3%。

Other income and expenses was an $8 million loss for the quarter as dividend and interest income was offset by asset revaluation.

由於股息和利息收入被資產重估所抵消，本季度其他收入和支出虧損 800 萬美元。

It should be noted that we continue to be pleased by our treasury team's performance in a very challenging capital markets environment.

應該指出的是，我們繼續對我們的資金團隊在極具挑戰性的資本市場環境中的表現感到高興。

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 27%, a percentage point lower than expected, driven by an earnings mix increased in lower tax jurisdictions.

我們本季度的有效稅率為 27%，比預期低一個百分點，這是由於低稅收管轄區的收益組合增加。

During the quarter, we repurchased 223 million shares or almost $6 billion of company stock and paid out a $1 billion in dividends to shareholders.

本季度，我們回購了 2.23 億股股票或近 60 億美元的公司股票，並向股東支付了 10 億美元的股息。

Of the $6 billion in share buybacks, approximately $3.3 billion was made under the new repurchase plan that we announced in September.

在 60 億美元的股票回購中，大約 33 億美元是根據我們在 9 月宣布的新回購計劃進行的。

Diluted shares outstanding were 9.2 billion, down 3.5% from the prior year as a result of the share repurchases.

由於股票回購，稀釋後流通股為 92 億股，比上年減少 3.5%。

Earnings per share were $0.48, at the high end of our guidance, representing growth of 7%.

每股收益為 0.48 美元，處於我們指導的高端，增長了 7%。

So, in summary, we had a good quarter with revenue above expectations, operating income inline with guidance, and earnings per share at the high end of guidance.

因此，總而言之，我們有一個不錯的季度，收入高於預期，營業收入符合指引，每股收益處於指引的高端。

With that, let me turn it back to Chris who will provide you with our second quarter and full year guidance.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回克里斯，他將為您提供我們第二季度和全年的指導。

I'm going to spend my remaining time on the call talking about what we're seeing in the market and providing additional details on the second quarter and the full year.

我將把剩下的時間花在電話會議上，討論我們在市場上看到的情況，並提供有關第二季度和全年的更多詳細信息。

As I mentioned, our guidance now assumes an outcome between a mild and a deeper recessionary environment.

正如我所提到的，我們的指導現在假設在溫和和更嚴重的衰退環境之間產生結果。

It's important that we give you some background, therefore, to what we're seeing in the marketplace.

因此，我們向您介紹我們在市場上看到的情況，這一點很重要。

Over the first two months of this quarter we experienced much the same economic conditions as we saw during the second half of fiscal 2008 with demand actually a little better than our historic seasonality.

在本季度的前兩個月，我們經歷了與 2008 財年下半年大致相同的經濟狀況，需求實際上略好於我們的歷史季節性。

However, in September, as the credit crisis unfolded, many partners and customers were faced with market uncertainty and credit restrictions which impacted the rate of which they purchased software.

然而，在 9 月，隨著信貸危機的展開，許多合作夥伴和客戶面臨著市場不確定性和信貸限制，從而影響了他們購買軟件的速度。

We've seen this behavior continue into October and while we're optimistic about the actions the government has taken to unfreeze the financial markets, there will inevitably be some spillover into the real economy.

我們已經看到這種行為一直持續到 10 月，雖然我們對政府為解凍金融市場所採取的行動感到樂觀，但不可避免地會對實體經濟產生一些溢出效應。

However, even in this environment of softening demand, recent third party research continues to call for growth in overall technology spending with the enterprise software portion of the spending expected to be up in the high single digit range.

然而，即使在這種需求疲軟的環境下，最近的第三方研究仍然呼籲整體技術支出增長，其中企業軟件部分的支出預計將在高個位數範圍內增長。

Our approach will be to tailor our business to whatever the economy brings, focusing on outperforming our competitors and in doing so, to outgrow the overall IT market.

我們的方法是根據經濟形勢調整我們的業務，專注於超越競爭對手，並在此過程中超越整個 IT 市場。

We will be agile, not only to customer demands in the changing environment, but also to our own patterns of spending.

我們將靈活應對不斷變化的環境中的客戶需求，以及我們自己的消費模式。

Given that, we have three main areas of focus.

鑑於此，我們有三個主要關注領域。

First, our philosophy of providing high value products at low total ownership costs is a competitive advantage in these times.

首先，我們以低總擁有成本提供高價值產品的理念在這個時代是一種競爭優勢。

Most IT leaders today are looking at their budgets and determining how to do more while spending less.

如今，大多數 IT 領導者都在關注他們的預算，並決定如何在減少開支的同時做更多的事情。

We expect Microsoft's low cost, standardized platforms and solutions will be particularly strong in the time when enterprises are unwilling to embark on complex customized IT solutions.

我們預計微軟低成本、標準化的平台和解決方案將在企業不願走上複雜的定制化 IT 解決方案的時代變得特別強大。

We believe we have some compelling products that will reduce our customers' costs.

我們相信我們有一些引人注目的產品可以降低客戶的成本。

We expect these to be particularly competitive in this environment.

我們預計這些在這種環境下將特別具有競爭力。

For example, virtualization with Windows Server Hyper V and system center management tools which allow customers to reduce hardware costs, increase server utilization rates and simplify system maintenance while lowering power and facility costs.

例如，使用 Windows Server Hyper V 和系統中心管理工具進行虛擬化，使客戶能夠降低硬件成本、提高服務器利用率並簡化系統維護，同時降低電力和設施成本。

We offer the lowest PCO in the industry with our solution about one-third the cost of our largest competitor.

我們提供業內最低的 PCO，我們的解決方案成本僅為最大競爭對手的三分之一。

This value proposition is already successful as evidenced in IDC's recent report which shows that in the second quarter Microsoft's share of the X86 server virtualization market climbed to nearly 25%.

這一價值主張已經成功，正如 IDC 最近的報告所證明的那樣，第二季度微軟在 X86 服務器虛擬化市場的份額攀升至近 25%。

Additionally, with our help customers can experience general cost savings and improved efficiency across their organization.

此外，在我們的幫助下，客戶可以在整個組織中體驗到總體成本節約和效率提升。

For example, using unified communication software and services, including Office Live meeting, which help improve collaboration and increase productivity while reducing travel and telephonic expenses.

例如，使用統一通信軟件和服務，包括 Office Live 會議，這有助於改善協作和提高生產力，同時減少差旅和電話費用。

And SharePoint improves the coordination across organizations, enables people to find and act on information anywhere within and across organizations and decreases IT support costs by empowering end users.

SharePoint 改進了跨組織的協調，使人們能夠在組織內部和跨組織的任何地方查找和處理信息，並通過授權最終用戶來降低 IT 支持成本。

The second area we're focused on in the current economic environment is internal operational efficiency and expense management.

在當前經濟環境下，我們關注的第二個領域是內部運營效率和費用管理。

In the near term, we're reassessing our business plan and pulling back spending in lower priority areas.

在短期內，我們正在重新評估我們的業務計劃並縮減在較低優先級領域的支出。

As a result, better than our guidance is a $400 million to $500 million decrease in operating expenses.

因此，比我們的指導更好的是運營費用減少了 4 億至 5 億美元。

This saving can be categorized as follows: lower headcount related costs as we've reviewed our hiring plans and making adjustments to our headcount growth; lower marketing expenses as we're adjusting our spending plans to correspond to our updated economic outlook; lower CapEx spend on data centers; and other general savings including travel expenses and vendor services.

這種節省可以分為以下幾類：在我們審查了我們的招聘計劃並對我們的員工人數增長進行調整時，降低了與員工人數相關的成本；降低營銷費用，因為我們正在調整我們的支出計劃以適應我們最新的經濟前景；降低數據中心的資本支出；和其他一般節省，包括差旅費和供應商服務。

These savings will progressively layer in, translating to economic savings in particular later this year and carrying forward into the next fiscal year as well.

這些節省將逐步增加，特別是在今年晚些時候轉化為經濟節省，並延續到下一個財政年度。

We are also putting in place other initiatives on a contingency basis that we can either dial up or down as we see economic changes unfold.

我們還在應急基礎上實施其他舉措，隨著我們看到經濟變化的展開，我們可以調高或調低這些舉措。

If macroeconomic conditions worsen then we will endeavor to reduce our operating expenses accordingly.

如果宏觀經濟狀況惡化，我們將努力相應地減少我們的運營費用。

Third, we'll focus our investment dollars in key strategic opportunities.

第三，我們將把投資資金集中在關鍵的戰略機遇上。

Continuing to manage our business for the long-term in anticipation of the eventual economic recovery.

在預期最終經濟復甦的情況下，繼續長期管理我們的業務。

While our short-term results will be impacted by the current economic environment, our long-term technology outlook remains strong.

雖然我們的短期業績將受到當前經濟環境的影響，但我們的長期技術前景依然強勁。

Long-term trends which power our business including the development of IT infrastructure and growing IT penetration in places like China, India, and other emerging markets remains intact.

推動我們業務發展的長期趨勢，包括 IT 基礎設施的發展以及在中國、印度和其他新興市場等地不斷增長的 IT 滲透率，仍然完好無損。

So with those comments, let's move to guidance.

因此，有了這些評論，讓我們轉向指導。

Looking to the second quarter, we expect revenue of 17.3 to $17.8 billion, which represents a year-over-year increase of 6% to 9%.

展望第二季度，我們預計收入為 17.3 至 178 億美元，同比增長 6% 至 9%。

For the full year, we're providing updated guidance for revenue of 64.9 to $66.4 billion, growing 7% to 10%.

全年，我們為 64.9 至 664 億美元的收入提供更新的指導，增長 7% 至 10%。

Let me provide you with some of our revenue guidance by segment and some additional details and the assumptions underlying it.

讓我為您提供一些按部門劃分的收入指導以及一些額外的細節和假設。

Beginning with our client division, we see second quarter growth of 7% to 10%, and full year growth of 2% to 6%.

從我們的客戶部門開始，我們看到第二季度增長 7% 到 10%，全年增長 2% 到 6%。

Underlying this guidance we see significant variability in the potential PC hardware demand.

在本指南的基礎上，我們看到潛在的 PC 硬件需求存在顯著差異。

As a result, we've made some adjustments to our forecast of PC units and now expect PC unit growth of 10% to 12% for the second quarter and 8% to 12% for the overall fiscal year.

因此，我們對 PC 銷量的預測進行了一些調整，現在預計第二季度 PC 銷量增長 10% 至 12%，整個財年增長 8% 至 12%。

You can see that we've widened our forecast range in the second half of our fiscal year as variability in the market demand clearly becomes more pronounced.

您可以看到，隨著市場需求的變化明顯變得更加明顯，我們在本財年下半年擴大了預測範圍。

The forecast also reflects continuation of the trends we saw in the first quarter, and assumes the following: traditional mature market PC units will grow in the low single digits, but with high potential variability; emerging markets units will continue to grow mid-to high teens; and sales in Netbooks will add about 5 percentage points of growth to the overall PC market.

該預測還反映了我們在第一季度看到的趨勢的延續，並假設如下：傳統成熟市場 PC 單位將以低個位數增長，但具有很大的潛在可變性；新興市場單位將繼續增長中高青少年；上網本的銷售額將為整個 PC 市場帶來約 5 個百分點的增長。

Moving on to our Server and Tools segment, we're now foreseeing revenue growth of 16% to 17% for the second quarter and 15% to 17% for the year.

繼續我們的服務器和工具部門，我們現在預計第二季度收入增長 16% 至 17%，全年增長 15% 至 17%。

Despite a more cautious IT spending outlook, and in particular lower forecasts for non-annuity license sales to smaller medium businesses, we continue to expect revenue to grow in strong double digits across our Server platform products and services, a reflection of the strength of the product portfolio and its relative value to customers.

儘管 IT 支出前景更加謹慎，尤其是對面向中小型企業的非年金許可證銷售的預測較低，但我們繼續預計我們的服務器平台產品和服務的收入將以兩位數強勁增長，這反映了產品組合及其對客戶的相對價值。

Microsoft Business division revenues should be up 7% to 8% in the second quarter and 12% to 13% for the year.

微軟業務部門第二季度的收入應增長 7% 至 8%，全年增長 12% 至 13%。

We expect to see continued healthy consumer and enterprise demand for our Office, SharePoint, Dynamics and Unified Communications offerings.

我們希望看到消費者和企業對我們的 Office、SharePoint、Dynamics 和統一通信產品的持續健康需求。

We forecast revenue in the Online Services businesses to increase 6% to 10% in Q2 and 10% to 13% for the year.

我們預計第二季度在線服務業務的收入將增長 6% 至 10%，全年增長 10% 至 13%。

This includes online advertising growth of about 15% for the year.

這包括今年約 15% 的在線廣告增長。

Still healthy in a more difficult advertising spending environment we expect.

在我們預期的更加困難的廣告支出環境中仍然健康。

Our display advertising business is probably the most economically sensitive of our revenue streams and therefore has the highest potential to either under or outperform depending on the state of the economy.

我們的展示廣告業務可能是我們收入流中對經濟最敏感的業務，因此根據經濟狀況最有可能低於或優於大市。

The Entertainment Devices division, we're forecasting revenue to be down 5% to up 1% for Q2 and down 3% to flat for the full year.

娛樂設備部門，我們預計第二季度收入將下降 5% 至 1%，全年將下降 3% 至持平。

Revenue growth is impacted by our recent Xbox 360 pricing cuts, that's offset by increases in console volume and lower costs.

收入增長受到我們最近 Xbox 360 降價的影響，這被遊戲機數量的增加和成本的降低所抵消。

As I outlined in July, we still expect the division to continue its profitability throughout this year.

正如我在 7 月份概述的那樣，我們仍然預計該部門將在今年全年繼續盈利。

Taken together, we still expect to grow revenue faster than the market.

總而言之，我們仍然預計收入增長速度將快於市場。

For example we're forecasting MBD in Server and Tools will grow revenue a combined 14% to 15%, about 6 points above Gardner's recent forecast for overall IT software spending of around 9%.

例如，我們預測服務器和工具中的 MBD 收入將增長 14% 至 15%，比 Gardner 最近對整體 IT 軟件支出約 9% 的預測高出約 6 個百分點。

As a result of the changes to our revenue and operating expense forecast, the operating income for the second quarter is expected to be between 6.1 and $6.4 billion, and for the year we expect operating income to be between 24.4 and $25.5 billion.

由於我們收入和運營費用預測的變化，第二季度的營業收入預計在 6.1 至 64 億美元之間，我們預計今年的營業收入將在 24.4 至 255 億美元之間。

For the second quarter, we expect EPS, earnings per share, of $0.51 to $0.53; and for the fiscal year we've updated our EPS guidance to be between $2.00 to $2.10; still achieving double-digit growth of 12% at the top end.

對於第二季度，我們預計每股收益為 0.51 美元至 0.53 美元；在本財年，我們將每股收益指引更新為 2.00 美元至 2.10 美元之間；高端市場仍實現 12% 的兩位數增長。

These earnings assume an effective tax rate of 26.5%, a 1.5 points lower than we expected in July.

這些收益假設有效稅率為 26.5%，比我們 7 月份的預期低 1.5 個百分點。

From balance sheet perspective, we expect total unearned revenue to finish fiscal 2009 up 2% to 5%, and when thinking about sequential changes in unearned revenue from Q1 to Q2, we expect the balance to be down sequentially.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們預計 2009 財年未實現收入總額將增長 2% 至 5%，而考慮到第一季度至第二季度未實現收入的連續變化，我們預計餘額將連續下降。

Contracted not billed should also finish 2009 up from current levels.

2009 年未開票的合同也應從當前水平上升。

I'm also pleased with our continued progress on capital structure and dividend policy.

我也對我們在資本結構和股息政策方面的持續進展感到高興。

During the quarter as you've seen, the board authorized a $40 billion share repurchase program.

如您所見，在本季度，董事會批准了一項 400 億美元的股票回購計劃。

We issued debt in the form of commercial paper for the first time.

我們首次以商業票據的形式發行債券。

We've been issuing that at an interest cost of less than 1%, and increased our dividend by 18%.

我們一直以低於 1% 的利息成本發行，並將我們的股息增加了 18%。

Given the uncertainty surrounding the current environment, it's important that you clearly consider some of the risks of this forecast which include the normal competitive legal, mix and execution risks; however in addition, there is also a high degree of uncertainty as to the path and economic demand, and that's reflected in the somewhat wider guidance range.

鑑於當前環境的不確定性，您必須清楚地考慮此預測的一些風險，包括正常的競爭性法律、組合和執行風險；但除此之外，路徑和經濟需求也存在高度不確定性，這反映在較寬的指導範圍上。

Before closing and taking your questions, I'd like to offer the following long-term perspectives.

在結束並回答您的問題之前，我想提供以下長期觀點。

We cannot control the economy, but we can control our relative performance versus the economy and versus overall IT spend.

我們無法控制經濟，但我們可以控制我們與經濟和整體 IT 支出的相對錶現。

We continue to forecast outgrowing the market regardless of the economic conditions.

無論經濟狀況如何，我們都繼續預測市場增長將超過市場。

On the spending front, we're carefully examining all of our businesses for opportunities to manage expenses and have already implemented some initiatives as I detailed earlier.

在支出方面，我們正在仔細檢查我們所有的業務，尋找管理費用的機會，並且已經實施了一些我之前詳述的舉措。

We will adapt our cost base to the evolving economy while simultaneously making appropriate investments to position ourselves for continued long-term success when the economy recovers.

我們將根據不斷發展的經濟調整我們的成本基礎，同時進行適當的投資，以在經濟復甦時為持續的長期成功做好準備。

On balance, I am happy that we're managing the Company with the right balance of short term earnings performance, and driving long term shareholder value.

總的來說，我很高興我們在短期收益表現和推動長期股東價值之間取得了適當的平衡來管理公司。

So with those comments, I'll hand the call over to Bill so we can get started taking some of your questions.

因此，有了這些評論，我將把電話轉給比爾，以便我們開始回答您的一些問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Let's now proceed to questions.

現在讓我們繼續提問。

We want to accommodate questions from as many people as possible, so please avoid multi-part questions and limit yourself to just one question.

我們希望容納盡可能多的人提出的問題，因此請避免多部分問題，並將自己限制在一個問題上。

Operator, will you please repeat your instructions?

接線員，請您重複一下您的指示好嗎？

Okay, thank you we will now begin the question-and-answer session.

好的，謝謝大家，我們現在開始問答環節。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Heather Bellini with UBS.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Heather Bellini。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Good afternoon, Chris and Kevin.

下午好，克里斯和凱文。

I had two quick questions for you, Chris.

克里斯，我有兩個簡單的問題要問你。

What are your assumptions for premium mix in the client business for the December quarter and for fiscal year '09?

您對 12 月季度和 09 財年客戶業務的保費組合有何假設？

That's been moving around a lot and obviously being impacted by the Netbook trend.

這已經發生了很多變化，並且顯然受到了上網本趨勢的影響。

And then the other question would be how should we expect client margins to be impacted by the trend going forward?

然後另一個問題是我們應該如何預期客戶利潤率會受到未來趨勢的影響？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

On the premium mix, it's in the mid-70s, Heather, and for Q2 and for the rest of the year we expect that to be about the same.

在優質組合上，它是在 70 年代中期，Heather，對於第二季度和今年餘下的時間，我們預計情況大致相同。

So somewhere in the 70% to 80% region, probably on balance, in the low 70s to mid-70s.

所以在 70% 到 80% 區域的某個地方，大概是在 70 年代低點到 70 年代中期。

That premium mix imbeds in it the Netbook sales as well, so that has both low end Vista and Netbook sales in it.

這種優質組合也包含了上網本的銷售，因此其中既有低端的 Vista 也有上網本的銷售。

In terms of margins, it's a difficult one to answer because you've got the weighted average of lots of growth factors in there.

就利潤率而言，這是一個很難回答的問題，因為你已經獲得了許多增長因素的加權平均值。

Clearly, the realization that we get from Netbook are lower than what we traditionally get from the consumer segment; and to the extent that they are relatively high growth then it does impact our overall revenue per license.

顯然，我們從上網本獲得的認識低於我們傳統上從消費者群體獲得的認識；如果它們的增長相對較高，那麼它確實會影響我們每個許可證的整體收入。

But to the extent that it is growth that we wouldn't otherwise have, had and that's the phenomena that I don't think any of us really know at this stage, how much of it is cannibalization of higher revenue per licenses and how much of it just simply new sales, then it's incremental sales even though it drags down the average.

但在某種程度上，這是我們本來不會擁有的增長，而這是我認為現階段我們中的任何人都不真正了解的現象，其中有多少是蠶食每個許可證的更高收入，有多少是其中只是簡單的新銷售，然後是增量銷售，即使它拉低了平均水平。

So, clearly some of it is partially cannibalization, some of it is a new phenomena.

因此，顯然其中一些是部分自相殘殺，其中一些是一種新現象。

When you look at the price points of some of the Netbooks, they're $300 to $400, clearly that is attractive for a lot of people in terms of adding a third or fourth PC to their homes so it's not just transference of higher end PCs as well.

當您查看一些上網本的價格點時，它們在 300 到 400 美元之間，顯然這對很多人來說很有吸引力，因為他們可以在家中增加第三或第四台 PC，因此這不僅僅是高端 PC 的轉移也是。

So it will affect the margins but some of that will be incremental growth that we wouldn't otherwise have had.

所以它會影響利潤率，但其中一些將是我們原本不會有的增量增長。

So will we start thinking of this business like we do your overall operating profit as growth in operating income and client as opposed to focusing on the absolute margin percentage?

那麼我們是否會開始考慮這項業務，就像我們將您的整體營業利潤視為營業收入和客戶的增長，而不是專注於絕對利潤率百分比？

Yes.

是的。

I think that's a good way of thinking about it and what we really have now is quite different segments inside the PC market.

我認為這是一種很好的思考方式，而我們現在真正擁有的是 PC 市場中完全不同的細分市場。

It's becoming more interesting in that sense, but you have quite different dynamics in the business market, the consumer, not Netbooks market, the consumer Netbooks market and the emerging country version of all of those as well.

從這個意義上說，它變得越來越有趣，但在商業市場、消費者而非上網本市場、消費者上網本市場和所有這些新興國家版本中，你有完全不同的動態。

Quite different growth rates, quite different realizations, and quite different dynamics driving that.

完全不同的增長率，完全不同的認識，以及完全不同的驅動力。

So it becomes--if you like more complicated from a forecasting point of view, but a more interesting marketplace.

所以它變成了——如果你喜歡從預測的角度來看更複雜，但更有趣的市場。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Brent Thill with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Brent Thill。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Just on the operating margin side, can you just walk through some of the metrics you're putting in or procedures you're putting in to control the cost.

僅在營業利潤率方面，您是否可以通過一些您正在投入的指標或您正在投入的程序來控製成本。

I think you mentioned CapEx and headcount.

我想你提到了資本支出和員工人數。

Are you still on track to do $4 billion on CapEx this year and I guess just from a headcount perspective, I think you ended last year at 91,000 employees, up 15%; do you expect to freeze or significantly slow that number?

您今年是否仍有望在資本支出上實現 40 億美元，我想僅從員工人數的角度來看，我認為您去年的員工人數為 91,000 人，增長了 15%；您是否希望凍結或顯著減慢該數字？

On the CapEx side I would expect us to spend upwards of $300 million less than what we were anticipating so if we were talking about 4 before, I would think 3.7 is probably a better number at this stage.

在資本支出方面，我預計我們的支出將比我們預期的少 3 億美元以上，所以如果我們之前談論 4，我認為現階段 3.7 可能是一個更好的數字。

That will all be in the data inside.

那將全部在數據裡面。

We will probably also slow our growth in some of the facilities that we have the people just by virtue of not having as many people as were expected as well, but that's likely to be more of an FY'10 phenomena.

我們可能還會因為沒有預期的人數那麼多而放慢我們擁有的一些設施的增長，但這可能更像是 10 財年的現象。

In terms of--I'm sorry, what was the second part of your question?

就--對不起，你問題的第二部分是什麼？

Just as it relates to headcount, you ended the year at 91,000 heads, up 15%.

正如它與員工人數有關，您在年底時有 91,000 人，增長了 15%。

Do you expect higher or slow that pace?

你期望更高還是更慢這個速度？

I don't see any scenario where we'll grow by that much this year, by 15%.

我認為今年我們不會增長這麼多，增長 15%。

It will certainly be less than that, and it will be less than what we expect them to grow in the year--coming into the year.

它肯定會低於這個數字，並且會低於我們預計它們在這一年的增長——進入這一年。

So what we've done is essentially gone right across the Company, every division and looked at areas where we can, if you like, spend less, have lower priority spending taken out.

因此，我們所做的基本上是整個公司、每個部門，並研究了我們可以在哪些領域，如果你願意，可以減少支出，減少優先級支出。

Some of that is headcount growth that we might have otherwise had, some of it is marketing spend in areas where there's not the demand that we're expecting, some of it's other, so it's non-people relating costs, spend or spend, travel, things like that.

其中一些是我們原本可能擁有的員工人數增長，其中一些是在沒有我們預期需求的領域的營銷支出，還有一些是其他的，因此與成本、支出或支出、旅行相關的非人員， 像這樣的東西。

So we're really cutting back on all of the areas which I consider--I'd call it non-priority or low priority.

所以我們真的削減了我考慮的所有領域——我稱之為非優先或低優先級。

In terms of where we might go further, we'll keep looking at those areas as the year develops.

就我們可能走得更遠的地方而言，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續關注這些領域。

From my point of view, in terms of the margin structure, for our core businesses as a result of the cuts that we will see and what we would have otherwise spent, the margins for our core business overall will stay broadly flat year on year.

從我的角度來看，就利潤率結構而言，由於我們將看到的削減以及我們本來會花費的費用，我們的核心業務的利潤率將與去年同期基本持平。

Entertainment and devices and OSB sort of will have their own dynamic, but all of those divisions will spend less than what they would otherwise.

娛樂和設備以及 OSB 都會有自己的動態，但所有這些部門的支出都將低於其他部門。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

And our next question comes from Charlie DiBona with Sanford Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自查理·迪博納（Charlie DiBona）和桑福德·伯恩斯坦（Sanford Bernstein）。

Hi, Chris.

嗨，克里斯。

I was wondering if we could turn maybe to unearneds.

我想知道我們是否可以轉向不勞而獲。

They were down sequentially by an unusually large amount from Q1 to Q4, and you're guiding to down sequentially next quarter which is different than your historic seasonality and even to--you're guiding to even sort of a weak increase year-over-year by the end of the year.

從第一季度到第四季度，它們的連續下降幅度異常大，並且您將在下個季度連續下降，這與您的歷史季節性不同，甚至 - 您將引導至較弱的增長-年到年底。

I understand there's an issue around undelivered elements, those will be sort of systemically coming down here.

我了解未交付元素存在問題，這些將系統性地降到這裡。

But even the VLA unearneds are down sort of an unusual amount.

但即使是 VLA 的非勞動收入也下降了一個不尋常的數量。

How should we interpret this?

我們應該如何解釋這一點？

What should we infer about your ability to replenish those balances in this environment?

我們應該如何推斷您在這種環境中補充這些餘額的能力？

And second, as you're pulling those revenues down, they should be extremely high margin.

其次，當你拉低這些收入時，它們應該是非常高的利潤率。

Maybe you could give us some color on sort of what that means for controlling for that what apples-to-apples margins really look like.

也許你可以給我們一些顏色，說明這對於控制蘋果對蘋果的利潤到底是什麼樣子意味著什麼。

Good question, Charlie.

好問題，查理。

In terms of quarter one relative to quarter four it was down, that's certainly true but obviously quarter four is a big billings quarter for us so you would expect it to be down year on year, it's down about the same as what we would normally expect.

第一季度相對於第四季度有所下降，這當然是正確的，但顯然第四季度對我們來說是一個很大的季度，所以你預計它會同比下降，與我們通常預期的下降大致相同.

During the course of the year and you've also got the Vista impact and undelivered elements so you need to net that out to look at the unearned part that is not associated with that.

在這一年中，您還獲得了 Vista 的影響和未交付的元素，因此您需要將其排除在外，以查看與此無關的不勞而獲的部分。

So there's a couple of factors there that you need to build in In terms of how we think about it going forward, and better than our guidance there's clearly some sense that we will have a more difficult economic environment and that's going to have to feed into the billings overall.

因此，您需要建立幾個因素就我們對未來的看法而言，並且比我們的指導更好，顯然有某種感覺，我們將面臨更加困難的經濟環境，這將不得不納入整體的帳單。

In the first quarter, interestingly, we continued our EA renewal rate of sort of traditional 2/3 or thereabouts.

有趣的是，在第一季度，我們的 EA 續訂率繼續保持在傳統的 2/3 左右。

So the first quarter we saw very good, but there's just going to be pressure.

所以第一季度我們看到非常好，但只會有壓力。

All of our customers are clearly going to be looking for opportunities to cut costs and so forth.

我們所有的客戶顯然都在尋找削減成本的機會等等。

So we're just being more cautious in terms of the rate at which we might have renewals or the rate at which we may start our new customers.

因此，我們只是在可能續訂的速度或我們可能開始新客戶的速度方面更加謹慎。

Now, all of our sales force, I sat in for half a day with our salesforce yesterday going through area by area and segment by segment.

現在，我們所有的銷售人員，昨天我和我們的銷售人員一起坐了半天，逐個區域、逐個地進行。

All of them are committed to their budgets, but you have to be realistic and say in this environment, we may not get the growth that we would have liked to have seen otherwise.

他們所有人都致力於他們的預算，但你必須現實並說在這種環境下，我們可能無法獲得我們本來希望看到的增長。

So I'm just generally more cautious and that will feed through to our unearned over time.

所以我通常會更加謹慎，隨著時間的推移，這將影響我們的不勞而獲。

One of the benefits we have in the areas like MBD and Server and Tools, about 40% of our revenue this year is from unearned coming through from last year.

我們在 MBD 和服務器和工具等領域的好處之一是，我們今年大約 40% 的收入來自去年的未賺到的收入。

So it's going to be an FY'10 impact as much as an FY'09 impact that I'm concerned about Charlie, and as we get through the second quarter and get much more visibility into that, I think we'll have to cut our costs for FY'10 depending on how we see the billings approach in the December period, which is much more significant, and then also going into potentially into the June re-signings as well.

因此，我對查理的擔憂將是 10 財年的影響和 09 財年的影響一樣大，隨著我們度過第二季度並對此有更多的了解，我認為我們將不得不削減我們在 10 財年的成本取決於我們如何看待 12 月期間的計費方法，這更為重要，然後也可能進入 6 月的重新簽約。

So it's an emerging issue.

所以這是一個新出現的問題。

I don't see it that significant just at the moment.

目前我認為這並不重要。

It's going to depend enormously on the environment that develops over the next three to six months and that's going to be an FY'10 sort of issue and upside, depending on where we get to.

這將在很大程度上取決於未來三到六個月發展的環境，這將是一個 10 財年的問題和上行空間，具體取決於我們的目標。

On the margin side, though, you're pulling this high revenue--you're pulling them down a little faster than you did last year.

不過，在利潤方面，你正在拉動如此高的收入——你拉低它們的速度比去年快一點。

Is that going to give you some cushion on the margin side?

這會在邊緣方面給你一些緩衝嗎？

I don't see cushion to the margin side.

我看不到邊緣側的緩衝。

It will help, if you like, it will help give us an underpinning on the revenue growth and to the extent that that revenue is effectively 100% margin that's already paid.

如果您願意，它將幫助我們為收入增長提供基礎，並且在某種程度上，該收入實際上是已經支付的 100% 利潤。

So as it comes through, it's just revenue that's there.

因此，當它通過時，它只是存在的收入。

It will help us with, if you like, the underwriting the revenue.

如果您願意，它將幫助我們承保收入。

I don't see it as high margin, per se.

就其本身而言，我不認為它是高利潤。

Thanks, Charlie.

謝謝，查理。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let's move to the next question, please.

請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Operator?

操作員？

Yes, and the next question comes from Sarah Friar from Goldman Sachs.

是的，下一個問題來自高盛的 Sarah Friar。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Two quick ones.

兩個快的。

Chris, just on the margin, back to margins, I know you don't like to guide to a margin but I think you made the comment that margins broadly flat year-over-year, given the cost focus that you have.

克里斯，就利潤而言，回到利潤，我知道你不喜歡指導利潤，但我認為你的評論是，考慮到你所關注的成本，利潤率與去年同期相比基本持平。

Why shouldn't Microsoft be thinking about margin expansion?

為什麼微軟不應該考慮擴大利潤？

Just given your size, the fact we're going into a downturn, it really gives companies an ability to go back in and cut not just kind of semi-discretionary, but really kind of cut back and think what a new operating model could look like with a slower top line growth for a couple of years.

考慮到你的規模，事實上我們正進入低迷期，它真的讓公司有能力重新進入並削減不僅僅是半自由裁量權，但真的有點削減並思考新的運營模式會是什麼樣子就像幾年來收入增長放緩一樣。

And then just if I could a follow-up on the EPS side, what buyback assumptions, if any, have you got within your EPS guidance as you think about the next couple of quarters.

然後，如果我可以在 EPS 方面進行跟進，那麼當您考慮接下來的幾個季度時，您是否在 EPS 指導範圍內進行了哪些回購假設（如果有的話）。

I think normally you say you don't want to give it, but it seems like there's not a lot in there just based on how the guidance stacks up.

我認為通常您會說您不想提供，但僅根據指導的疊加方式，似乎其中並沒有很多。

The way that we spend and the way that our revenue is recognized, really are two quite separate trends and we've talked about this before.

我們消費的方式和確認收入的方式，確實是兩個完全不同的趨勢，我們之前已經討論過這個問題。

So when I think about how much we save, I think about it in the context of what are the opportunities to save against the expense base that we have.

因此，當我考慮我們節省了多少時，我會考慮在我們擁有的費用基礎上有哪些機會進行儲蓄。

Not as against the revenue base that we have.

與我們擁有的收入基礎不同。

So the revenue of adjusted in terms of the economic conditions that we think for this year.

因此，根據我們認為今年的經濟狀況調整了收入。

The expense base we've adjusted to try and retain margins as much as possible, but more against the opportunities set of where we can take expense out.

我們已經調整了支出基礎，以盡可能地保持利潤，但更多的是針對我們可以支出支出的機會集。

In terms of our ability to expand margins in an environment like this, again, I would say that's an FY'10 and further.

就我們在這樣的環境中擴大利潤的能力而言，我想說那是 10 財年甚至更遠的時間。

That's the sort of discussions that we have and the strategy reviews as opposed to how we run the business in the short term.

這就是我們所進行的討論和戰略審查，而不是我們在短期內如何經營業務。

I made the comment in the commentary that I think we're making the right balance of taking cost out in the short term but still investing for the future.

我在評論中發表評論說，我認為我們在短期內降低成本但仍為未來投資之間取得了正確的平衡。

As we start to put our forecast for how we see the environment in fiscal year '10, '11 and so forth, then we have to start making some decisions about more structural change on the expense side as opposed to saving what we have already budgeted for this year.

當我們開始預測我們如何看待 '10、'11 等財年的環境時，我們必須開始就支出方面的更多結構性變化做出一些決定，而不是節省我們已經預算的東西今年。

So the two are clearly mathematically connected to each other, but in terms of the way we manage them are really quite separate.

所以這兩者在數學上顯然是相互聯繫的，但就我們管理它們的方式而言，它們確實是完全不同的。

On buyback, as you know, we don't forecast what buybacks are.

如您所知，在回購方面，我們不預測什麼是回購。

We did $6 billion in the quarter.

我們在本季度完成了 60 億美元。

Clearly, we have a new authorization in place now and we have the economic ability to continue the buybacks and share prices are certainly relatively attractive, but we don't forecast what we will do in any one particular quarter.

顯然，我們現在有了新的授權，我們有繼續回購的經濟能力，股價當然相對有吸引力，但我們不預測我們將在任何一個特定季度做什麼。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Sarah.

謝謝，莎拉。

Operator, next question, please.

接線員，請下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Kash Rangan from Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美林證券的 Kash Rangan。

Hi, thank you very much.

你好，非常感謝。

Two questions for you, Chris.

克里斯，你有兩個問題。

One is looking at the cash flow statement there is an unusual deduction in current liability and I was wondering if you could offer some perspective on that.

一個是查看現金流量表，當前負債中有一項不尋常的扣除，我想知道您是否可以對此提供一些看法。

Secondly, at a very high level, just doing some rough back of the envelope math here.

其次，在非常高的水平上，只是在這裡做一些粗略的數學運算。

Your revenue guidance compared to--revenue guidance now compared to where it was three months back is about 300 basis points lower and when I flowed through that incremental impact at a 70%, 75% contribution margin, which is what I would expect given that most of your core business products are at that margin, I would expect that a lot of that negative impact to earnings can be offset through your share buybacks and even if you slowed down your pace of share buybacks to do let's say 3 to 4 billion per quarter for the next three quarters, I would imagine that the EPS impact--the negative EPS impact should be largely offset, yet we do have cautious guidance, which I completely understand and appreciate given the economic environment.

您的收入指導與三個月前相比現在的收入指導低了約 300 個基點，當我以 70%、75% 的邊際貢獻率通過增量影響時，這是我所期望的您的大多數核心業務產品都處於該利潤率，我預計對收益的許多負面影響可以通過您的股票回購來抵消，即使您放慢股票回購的步伐，比如說 3 到 40 億美元在接下來的三個季度中，我認為每股收益的影響——負面的每股收益影響應該在很大程度上被抵消，但我們確實有謹慎的指導，鑑於經濟環境，我完全理解和讚賞。

But I just wonder as I go through the tradeoff, if there is a little bit more cautiousness that is built in than what meets the eye.

但我只是想知道，當我進行權衡時，是否存在比所看到的更多的謹慎。

That's it.

而已。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Fine.

美好的。

In terms of the unusual amount that you talked about, we did settle a past IRS exam for the years 2000 to 2003.

就你所說的不尋常數額而言，我們確實解決了 2000 年至 2003 年過去的 IRS 考試。

So that was a large one-off payment to the tax department, and it was actually lower than what we were expecting and recall that we released some of the provision last quarter.

因此，這是向稅務部門一次性支付的大筆款項，實際上低於我們的預期，並記得我們在上個季度發布了一些撥備。

So that was the large payment that you're alluding to from a cash flow point of view.

從現金流的角度來看，這就是您所暗示的大筆付款。

Secondly, on the margin side, you are correct that buybacks will certainly offset some of the loss of margin that we have at an operating income level.

其次，在保證金方面，你說得對，回購肯定會抵消我們在營業收入水平上的部分保證金損失。

One of the things that will dampen that to some extent is the investment income that we have.

在一定程度上會抑制這一點的一件事是我們擁有的投資收入。

We're more cautious in what we expect to get from our investment income line.

我們對預期從投資收益線中獲得的收益更加謹慎。

You saw it was essentially zero for this quarter and it's just a difficult environment, clearly, to make high returns or any significant returns from our investment portfolio.

您看到本季度基本上為零，顯然，這只是一個艱難的環境，要從我們的投資組合中獲得高回報或任何重大回報。

So that will offset a little bit of the buyback impact that you talked about.

所以這將抵消你談到的一些回購影響。

The other thing to point out is that as we lose sales in most of our businesses, whilst you applied our average margin, the marginal margin, if I can call it that, is probably higher than that.

需要指出的另一件事是，由於我們在大多數業務中都失去了銷售，而您應用了我們的平均利潤率，如果我可以這麼說，邊際利潤率可能會更高。

So some of the sales that we have really are 90% plus given the relatively low COGS associated with them.

因此，考慮到與之相關的相對較低的銷貨成本，我們的一些銷售額實際上是 90% 以上。

So if we lose revenue, our ability to take cost out in the short-term equal to that, to take--to keep our margins intact is very challenging.

因此，如果我們失去收入，我們在短期內將成本抵消的能力，以保持我們的利潤不變是非常具有挑戰性的。

Now, we're looking to do that and as I mentioned before in those three core businesses, I think we can retain margins year-over-year.

現在，我們正在尋求這樣做，正如我之前在這三個核心業務中提到的那樣，我認為我們可以保持同比利潤率。

But that's pretty difficult to make up from either cost reduction or from buyback overall.

但這很難通過降低成本或整體回購來彌補。

It will certainly offset it and we have the benefit of both strong cash flow and a strong financial position which helps us, but I don't see it being a total offset.

它肯定會抵消它，我們既有強大的現金流，又有強大的財務狀況，這對我們有幫助，但我不認為這會完全抵消。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks a lot.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Kash.

謝謝，卡什。

Operator, next question, please.

接線員，請下一個問題。

Next is John DiFucci with JPMorgan.

接下來是摩根大通的 John DiFucci。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Chris, you saw your client revenue go up about 2% this quarter and your guidance is for 2% to 6% growth for the year.

克里斯，您看到本季度您的客戶收入增長了約 2%，您的指導是今年增長 2% 到 6%。

But you expect 7% to 10% for the December quarter and you've talked about the beginning of this quarter seeing some weakness overall, you didn't specifically mention this business.

但是您預計 12 月季度的增長率為 7% 到 10%，並且您已經談到本季度初總體上出現了一些疲軟，您沒有特別提到這項業務。

I'm just curious, though, what gives you the confidence in this 7% to 10% growth for this quarter?

不過，我只是好奇，是什麼讓您對本季度 7% 到 10% 的增長充滿信心？

It's really--it's around as we go further out in the year we just get more uncertain so we've widened the range in particular in the back half of the year.

真的——隨著我們在這一年走得更遠，我們變得更加不確定，所以我們擴大了範圍，特別是在今年下半年。

So we think, particularly with Christmas coming up, that overall sales will be relatively good.

所以我們認為，特別是隨著聖誕節的臨近，整體銷售會相對較好。

We have reasonably good visibility into this quarter in terms of inventory positions.

就庫存狀況而言，我們對本季度的可見性相當好。

We feel pretty good about some of the initiatives that we have in the unlicensed area.

我們對我們在無牌領域的一些舉措感到非常滿意。

We've got channel inventory down to where we would like to see it.

我們已將渠道庫存降至我們希望看到的位置。

So our visibility is better in this quarter than it is in some of the later quarters.

因此，我們在本季度的能見度要好於後幾個季度。

So it's simply, as we go further out in the year, we just become more cautious.

所以很簡單，隨著我們在這一年中走得更遠，我們只會變得更加謹慎。

Okay.

好的。

And if I might just a quick follow-up, I just wondered if there's any potential for any channel issues?

如果我可以快速跟進，我只是想知道是否有任何渠道問題的可能性？

Entertainment and device really strong this quarter, but two years ago was really strong and then later on we found out there was some--the channel was over full I guess.

本季度的娛樂和設備真的很強大，但兩年前真的很強大，後來我們發現有一些——我猜頻道已經滿員了。

And I don't think it's related, but you had a big jump in inventory on the balance sheet by like over 60%; but are those two things related or can you just address those two?

而且我認為這沒有關係，但是資產負債表上的庫存大幅增加了 60% 以上；但是這兩件事是否相關，或者你能解決這兩個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We are feeling good about the overall level of inventory going into the Christmas period.

我們對進入聖誕節期間的整體庫存水平感覺良好。

We had a strong sell-in quarter you're correct, and we have got a reasonable amount of inventory on our balance sheet in terms of our own boxes.

我們有一個強勁的銷售季度，你是對的，我們的資產負債表上有合理數量的庫存，就我們自己的盒子而言。

Having said that, the price points that we're looking at for this Christmas at $199 for Arcade, $299 for Pro, $399 for Elite, are very good.

話雖如此，我們正在尋找今年聖誕節的價格點，Arcade 199 美元，Pro 299 美元，Elite 399 美元，非常好。

None of us know exactly how this economic situation is going to play out in terms of Christmas purchases.

我們誰也不知道這種經濟形勢在聖誕節購買方面將如何發展。

But when you look at those relative price points, either relative to our competition, we're sort of on absolute dollars relative to other things you people might purchase.

但是，當您查看這些相對價格點時，無論是相對於我們的競爭對手，相對於您人們可能購買的其他東西，我們都是絕對的美元。

It's nowhere near as significant as it was, say, last Christmas.

它遠沒有去年聖誕節那麼重要。

So clearly, we don't know what Christmas will look like; but given our relative position, I think we're in pretty good shape from an inventory perspective.

很明顯，我們不知道聖誕節會是什麼樣子；但考慮到我們的相對位置，我認為從庫存的角度來看，我們的狀況非常好。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Operator, next question, please.

接線員，請下一個問題。

And our next question comes from Adam Holt from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當霍爾特。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

I had a couple questions about currency.

我有幾個關於貨幣的問題。

I believe a lot of your non-U.S.

我相信你的很多非美國

business is actually billed in U.S.

業務實際上是在美國計費的

dollars, like some of the OEM business in some of the emerging markets.

美元，就像一些新興市場的代工業務。

Roughly what percentage of your revenue, if you have number, is actually in U.S.

如果你有數字，你的收入的大約百分之幾實際上是在美國。

dollars and what are your assumptions around currency for the rest of fiscal '09?

美元以及您對 09 財年剩餘時間的貨幣假設是什麼？

Think of it--the easiest way to think about it is three, lots of one-thirds.

想一想——考慮它的最簡單方法是三分之三。

So about a third of our business is in U.S.

所以我們大約三分之一的業務在美國。

dollars in North America, about a third of our business is in U.S.

美元在北美，我們大約三分之一的業務在美國。

dollars but sold in businesses outside of the U.S., and about a third of our business was sold in international currencies in countries outside the U.S.

美元，但在美國以外的企業銷售，我們約有三分之一的業務在美國以外的國家以國際貨幣銷售。

So you're correct, a large part and particularly the OEM sales is for units that are sold outside the U.S., but we bill in U.S.

所以你是對的，很大一部分，特別是 OEM 銷售是針對在美國以外銷售的單位，但我們在美國收費。

dollars.

美元。

That's the easiest way of thinking about it.

這是最簡單的思考方式。

So around a third is directly impacted by foreign exchange movements.

因此，大約三分之一的人直接受到外匯波動的影響。

In terms of the assumptions going forward, we are pretty much fully hedged for this year so regardless of the FX rate that you assume, the revenue guidance that we're giving is pretty solid.

就未來的假設而言，我們今年幾乎完全對沖，因此無論您假設的匯率如何，我們提供的收入指導都非常可靠。

It won't change much depending on currency.

它不會因貨幣而發生太大變化。

It will start to impact us more in fiscal year '10 as some of those hedges roll off.

隨著其中一些對沖措施的取消，它將在 10 財年開始對我們產生更大的影響。

But we went into the year 100% hedged so at the moment we're benefiting from a lower exchange rate in terms of those hedges being valuable.

但是我們進入了 100% 對沖的那一年，所以目前我們正從較低的匯率中受益，因為這些對沖是有價值的。

Terrific.

了不起。

If I could just ask a follow-up on the office business.

如果我能問一下辦公室業務的後續情況。

Another, obviously, good quarter in NBD with particular strength in the consumer side.

顯然，NBD 的另一個好季度在消費者方面具有特別的優勢。

Now the comparisons are easy for consumer for the next couple of quarters.

現在，在接下來的幾個季度中，消費者很容易進行比較。

You did mention some incentive programs this quarter.

您確實提到了本季度的一些激勵計劃。

What are your expectations around the consumer growth and any further incentives there?

您對消費者增長的期望是什麼以及那裡的任何進一步激勵措施？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Those incentives certainly helped drive growth in the first quarter.

這些激勵措施無疑有助於推動第一季度的增長。

To the extent they're not evident or they're not in existence in the second quarter, we're more conservative and that's embedded in the guidance in NBD for the second quarter.

如果它們不明顯或在第二季度不存在，我們會更加保守，這已包含在 NBD 第二季度的指導中。

We still think the overall customer proposition is very good, but we certainly saw a volume lift from some of those incentives in the first quarter.

我們仍然認為整體客戶主張非常好，但我們肯定看到第一季度其中一些激勵措施的銷量有所提升。

So you're correct there, but we don't think it's going to be a significant phenomena in the second quarter.

所以你是對的，但我們認為這在第二季度不會是一個重要的現象。

Thanks, Adam.

謝謝，亞當。

Operator, next question, please.

接線員，請下一個問題。

Next is Phil Winslow with Credit Suisse.

接下來是瑞士信貸的菲爾溫斯洛。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Just had a question on the PC outlook for the rest of the fiscal year and Q4.

剛剛對本財年剩餘時間和第四季度的 PC 前景有疑問。

I think you mentioned 10% to 12% year-over-year growth sort of just your PC shipment expectation.

我認為您提到的 10% 到 12% 的年增長率只是您的 PC 出貨量預期。

Kind of looking at what that is sequentially that's about 10 to 12% sequential uplift which is basically what we've seen in the past several December quarters.

看看那是什麼，大約是 10% 到 12% 的連續提升，這基本上是我們在過去幾個 12 月季度看到的情況。

Just wondering what you see on the outlook there that gives you the confidence that we have a similar type of uplift heading into the December quarter here.

只是想知道您對那裡的前景有何看法，這讓您相信我們在進入 12 月季度時會有類似類型的提升。

What I actually said was our outlook for the year is 8 to 12.

我實際上說的是我們對今年的展望是 8 到 12 年。

So I think I talked about 10 to 12 for the second quarter and 8 to 12 for the full year.

所以我想我談到了第二季度的 10 到 12 次和全年的 8 到 12 次。

Now, to the extent that the front half is around 10 to 12 and the year is 8 to 12, the implication just on simple averages is that the back half of the year we're saying 6 to 12.

現在，如果前半年大約是 10 到 12 歲，而一年是 8 到 12 歲，那麼簡單平均來看，我們說的後半年是 6 到 12 歲。

So that's a lot wider range and it's also on average lower.

所以這是一個更廣泛的範圍，而且平均來說也更低。

So we are more cautious as the year goes on about not only the overall level of growth, but also the variability in that growth.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們不僅對整體增長水平，而且對增長的可變性更加謹慎。

So if you take the average of that number, let's say 9% on the back half, that's a couple of points lower on average than the first half of the year and also with a much wider spread.

因此，如果您取該數字的平均值，假設後半部分為 9%，這比上半年平均低幾個點，而且分佈範圍也更大。

So we're pretty conservative on what the back half of the year might look like, and in particular, where the growth might come from.

因此，我們對下半年的情況非常保守，特別是增長可能來自何處。

So we think certainly Netbooks growth will continue to be relatively robust, emerging markets will be; but in the back half of the year, we're feeling pretty cautious about in particular mature markets, core PC growth.

所以我們認為上網本的增長肯定會繼續相對強勁，新興市場也會；但在今年下半年，我們對特別是成熟市場的核心 PC 增長感到非常謹慎。

That could be flat to single digits.

這可能是個位數。

And then just for the December quarter, just with the holiday season so forth, just the outlook heading into that, that's why I mentioned the 10% to 12%, sort of just the uplift that implies sequentially.

然後就在 12 月季度，就在假期等季節，只是前景進入那個階段，這就是為什麼我提到 10% 到 12% 的原因，這只是順序暗示的上升。

Sorry, it's 10% to 12% for the December quarter; and that would be, again, sort of single to mid-digits for the mature markets, solid double digits for the emerging markets and then probably about a 5 percentage point uplift as a result of Netbooks.

抱歉，12 月季度是 10% 到 12%；對於成熟市場來說，這將是個位數到中位數，對於新興市場來說是穩定的兩位數，然後可能會因為上網本而提高約 5 個百分點。

Is that the question you were asking?

那是你問的問題嗎？

That's perfect.

那很完美。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

Thanks, Phil.

謝謝，菲爾。

Operator, this will be our last question.

接線員，這將是我們的最後一個問題。

And our last question comes from Israel Hernandez from Barclays Capital.

我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊資本的 Israel Hernandez。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Chris, how should we be thinking about Microsoft's M&A strategy as we move through this downcycle?

克里斯，在我們度過這個下行週期時，我們應該如何考慮微軟的併購戰略？

Do you see an opportunity to perhaps accelerate the pace as valuations come in?

隨著估值的出現，您是否看到了加快步伐的機會？

I'm not talking necessarily specifically around the Yahoo!

我不一定要專門圍繞 Yahoo!

situation, but more generally with respect to enterprise software.

情況，但更普遍地涉及企業軟件。

Clearly, the benefit this environment has to us, if there is one, is in lower asset prices and we continue to be a net acquirer of businesses.

顯然，這種環境對我們的好處（如果有的話）在於降低資產價格，並且我們繼續成為企業的淨收購者。

Last year, as you know, we bought around 24, so two a month; and we will continue to buy in particular in the small and medium size businesses which are our real sweet spot.

如你所知，去年我們買了大約 24 個，所以一個月兩個；我們將繼續購買，特別是中小型企業，這是我們真正的最佳選擇。

I see our real constraint is not capital but simply our ability to integrate.

我看到我們真正的限制不是資本，而只是我們整合的能力。

I don't see us necessarily increasing the volume of acquisitions, and in fact a lot of people will see this as a difficult time to sell because they'll see their prices as being depressed; but to the extent that we do buy, which I think we will continue to, then it's likely to cost us less than it would have otherwise.

我認為我們不一定會增加收購量，事實上很多人會認為這是一個難以出售的時期，因為他們會認為他們的價格被壓低了；但就我們確實購買的程度而言，我認為我們將繼續這樣做，那麼我們的成本可能會低於其他情況。

So generally it's going to be a good environment for us and clearly relatively speaking we're still very cash rich.

所以總的來說，這對我們來說是一個很好的環境，顯然相對而言我們仍然非常富有。

So we're certainly not constrained from a capital point of view in buying companies.

因此，從資本的角度來看，我們在購買公司時當然不會受到限制。

It's very much around do they fit the product road map and do we have the people and management capability to integrate them.

它們是否適合產品路線圖以及我們是否有人員和管理能力來整合它們。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Great.

偉大的。

So that will wrap up our Q&A portion of today's earnings call.

因此，這將結束我們今天財報電話會議的問答部分。

Remember that you can access this call on the Microsoft investor central website at www.Microsoft.com/MSFT.

請記住，您可以在 Microsoft 投資者中心網站 www.Microsoft.com/MSFT 上訪問此電話會議。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

That concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Please disconnect your line at this time.

此時請斷開您的線路。