微軟 (MSFT) 2008 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Microsoft third-quarter earnings call.

歡迎參加微軟第三季度財報電話會議。

At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode.

此時所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的電話正在錄音。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。

I would now like to turn the meeting over to Colleen Healy, General Manager, Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係部總經理 Colleen Healy。

Ma'am, you may begin.

女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you, and good afternoon everyone.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。

This afternoon I'm joined by Chris Liddell, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Frank Brod, Corporate Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and John Seethoff, Deputy General Counsel.

今天下午，高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Chris Liddell 加入了我的行列； Frank Brod，公司副總裁兼首席會計官；和副總法律顧問 John Seethoff。

Today's call will start with Chris providing some key takeaways for the third quarter of fiscal year 2008 and an overview of expectations for what remains of the fiscal year.

今天的電話會議將首先由 Chris 提供 2008 財年第三季度的一些關鍵要點以及對本財年剩餘時間的預期概述。

I will then provide detail around our third quarter results and then turn it back to Chris for a more detailed discussion of our guidance for the fourth quarter and a preliminary outlook for fiscal year '09.

然後，我將提供有關我們第三季度業績的詳細信息，然後將其轉回給克里斯，以更詳細地討論我們對第四季度的指導和 09 財年的初步展望。

After that, we'll take your questions.

之後，我們將回答您的問題。

We filed our 10-Q today in conjunction with our earnings release.

我們今天在發布財報的同時提交了 10-Q。

Therefore, you have available the earnings release, MD&A, financial statements and footnotes.

因此，您可以獲得收益發布、MD&A、財務報表和腳註。

We have also posted our quarterly financial summary slide deck, which is intended to follow the flow of our prepared remarks in order to assist you.

我們還發布了我們的季度財務摘要幻燈片，旨在按照我們準備好的評論流程為您提供幫助。

The slide deck offers highlights from the quarter, outlines our guidance and provides a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will talk about today.

幻燈片提供了本季度的亮點，概述了我們的指導，並提供了我們今天將要討論的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間差異的協調。

You can find the earnings release, the 10-Q and the quarterly financial summary, slide deck, at the investor relations web site at www.Microsoft.com/MSFT.

您可以在投資者關係網站 www.Microsoft.com/MSFT 上找到收益發布、10-Q 和季度財務摘要幻燈片。

Today's call will be recorded.

今天的通話將被錄音。

Please be aware that if you decide to ask a question, it will be included both our live transmission as well as any future use of the recording.

請注意，如果您決定提出問題，它將包括我們的實時傳輸以及將來對錄音的任何使用。

As always, shareholders and analysts can listen to a live webcast of today's call at the Microsoft investor relations web site.

與往常一樣，股東和分析師可以在微軟投資者關係網站上收聽今天電話會議的網絡直播。

A replay of the call will be available at the same site through the close of business on April 24, 2009.

到 2009 年 4 月 24 日營業結束時，將在同一地點重播電話會議。

This conference call report is protected by copyright law and international treaties.

本電話會議報告受版權法和國際條約的保護。

Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of this report or any portion of it may result in civil and criminal penalties.

未經授權複製或分發本報告或其任何部分可能會導致民事和刑事處罰。

Any recording or other use or transmission of the text or audio of today's call is not allowed without the express permission of Microsoft.

未經 Microsoft 明確許可，不得對今天通話的文本或音頻進行任何錄音或其他使用或傳輸。

Because we will be discussing on this call our proposal to purchase all of the outstanding shares of Yahoo!, we're providing the following statement.

因為我們將在這次電話會議上討論我們購買雅虎所有流通股的提議，所以我們提供以下聲明。

This conference call does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or solicitation of any vote or approval.

本次電話會議不構成出售要約或徵求購買任何證券的要約或徵求任何投票或批准。

The material covered in this conference call is not a substitute for the prospectus or proxy statement Microsoft would have to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission if an agreement between Microsoft and Yahoo!

如果微軟和雅虎之間達成協議，本次電話會議中涵蓋的材料不能替代微軟必須向證券交易委員會提交的招股說明書或代理聲明。

is reached or for any other documents which Microsoft may file with the SEC and sent to Yahoo!

或 Microsoft 可能向 SEC 提交並發送給 Yahoo! 的任何其他文件。

stockholders in connection with the proposed transaction.

與擬議交易有關的股東。

Investors and security holders of Yahoo!

雅虎的投資者和證券持有人！

are urged to read any such document filed with the SEC carefully in their entirety when they become available because they will contain important information about the proposed transaction.

敦促在提交給 SEC 的任何此類文件可用時仔細閱讀它們的全部內容，因為它們將包含有關擬議交易的重要信息。

Statements on this communication that are forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

本通訊中的前瞻性陳述是基於當前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Actual results could differ materially because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release and the comments made during this conference call and in the risk factors and MD&A section of our Form 10-Q, or 2007 Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC.

由於今天的收益新聞稿中討論的因素和本次電話會議期間發表的評論以及我們的 10-Q 表或 2007 年 10-K 表的風險因素和 MD&A 部分以及其他報告和文件，實際結果可能存在重大差異。證券交易委員會。

Actual results also could differ materially because of factors such as Microsoft's ability to achieve the synergies and value creation contemplated by the proposed transaction with Yahoo!, Microsoft's ability to promptly and effectively integrate the business of Yahoo!

由於微軟有能力實現與雅虎擬議交易所設想的協同效應和價值創造，微軟有能力迅速有效地整合雅虎的業務等因素，實際結果也可能存在重大差異。

and Microsoft, the timing to consummate the proposed transaction and any necessary actions to obtain required regulatory approvals and the diversion of management's time on transaction-related issues.

和微軟，完成擬議交易的時間和任何必要的行動以獲得所需的監管批准以及管理層在交易相關問題上的時間轉移。

You may obtain copies of Microsoft's SEC reports and filings by contacting our investor relations department at 1-800-285-7772 or at our web site at www.Microsoft.com/MSFT.

您可以致電 1-800-285-7772 或訪問我們的網站 www.Microsoft.com/MSFT 聯繫我們的投資者關係部門，獲取 Microsoft 的 SEC 報告和文件的副本。

All information in this conference call is as of today, April 24, 2008.

本次電話會議中的所有信息截至今天，2008 年 4 月 24 日。

We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements to conform to statements to actual results or changes in the Company's expectations.

我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述以使陳述符合實際結果或公司預期變化的任何責任。

Okay, with that, let me know turn it over to Chris.

好的，有了這個，讓我知道把它交給克里斯。

Thanks, Colleen, and good afternoon everyone.

謝謝，科琳，大家下午好。

The strength of our third quarter results demonstrates the benefits of our diversified business model.

我們第三季度業績的強勁體現了我們多元化業務模式的優勢。

As you will see, our broad span across geographies, product categories and customer segments is a tremendous asset in any economic environment and produced third-quarter results of 14% revenue growth normalized for the tech guarantees and 27% earnings per share adjusted for the tech guarantee, legal charges and tax benefits, beating our earnings per share guidance by $0.02 to $0.04.

正如您將看到的那樣，我們跨地域、產品類別和客戶群的廣泛跨度在任何經濟環境中都是一筆巨大的資產，並產生了第三季度的業績，即技術保證正常化收入增長 14%，技術調整後每股收益增長 27%擔保、法律費用和稅收優惠，超過我們的每股收益指引 0.02 美元至 0.04 美元。

Let me mention a few highlights of our third quarter performance before turning to guidance.

在轉向指導之前，讓我提一下我們第三季度業績的一些亮點。

When looking at the drivers of revenue growth this quarter, it's clear that we are reaping the benefits of the diversification of our business.

在查看本季度收入增長的驅動因素時，很明顯我們正在從業務多元化中獲益。

In the first two quarters of the year, our core business of Client and the Microsoft Business divisions significantly outperformed our expectations, and this quarter the Entertainment and Devices division drove our results.

今年前兩個季度，我們的客戶端核心業務和微軟業務部門的表現大大超出了我們的預期，本季度娛樂和設備部門推動了我們的業績。

Despite a tough economic environment, this has allowed us to deliver consecutive earnings per share growth of 29%, 32% and 27% this year, adjusted for the tech guarantee, legal charges and tax benefits.

儘管經濟環境艱難，但這使我們今年的每股收益連續增長了 29%、32% 和 27%，並根據技術保證、法律費用和稅收優惠進行了調整。

Revenue growth in the Client and Microsoft Business divisions businesses were normalized for the prior-year results, for the impacts of the tech guarantee and retail launch spikes, have combined growth of $700 million, or 9%.

客戶和微軟業務部門業務的收入增長與上一年的業績相比正常化，因為技術保障和零售推出高峰的影響，合計增長了 7 億美元，即 9%。

Server and Tools had yet another quarter of double-digit revenue growth while kicking off our largest enterprise product launch in the Company's history.

服務器和工具在啟動公司歷史上最大的企業產品發布的同時，又實現了四分之一的兩位數收入增長。

Our consumer businesses of Entertainment and Devices division and online service business grew revenue a combined 57%, or over $850 million, and the Treasury Department continued its excellent work, delivering investment income exceeding our forecasts and managing to avoid any significant write-offs at our portfolio, despite the massive dislocation in the financial markets.

我們的娛樂和設備部門的消費者業務和在線服務業務的收入合計增長了 57%，即超過 8.5 億美元，財政部繼續其出色的工作，提供了超出我們預期的投資收入，並設法避免了我們的任何重大核銷投資組合，儘管金融市場出現了巨大的混亂。

In the fourth quarter we expect a strong finish to what has been an excellent year.

在第四季度，我們預計這一出色的一年將迎來強勁的收官。

Revenue, operating income and earnings per share guidance for the year remained largely in line with our January guidance and significantly above our expectations upon entering the year.

今年的收入、營業收入和每股收益指引基本與我們 1 月份的指引保持一致，並大大高於我們進入今年時的預期。

Since this time last year, our revenue outlook for fiscal '08 has increased by about $3 billion, operating income margins are expected to expand by over a point and earnings per share guidance is higher by $0.18.

自去年這個時候以來，我們對 08 財年的收入預期增加了約 30 億美元，營業利潤率預計將擴大一個百分點以上，每股收益指引將提高 0.18 美元。

On a more macro level, there has been some uncertainty regarding the strength of the IT spending environment, but our business has remained robust in the face of that uncertainty.

在更宏觀的層面上，IT 支出環境的強度存在一些不確定性，但面對這種不確定性，我們的業務仍然保持強勁。

While, clearly, no business can be immune from the impacts of an economic slowdown, we remain confident in the benefits of our diversified business model and the investment approach we have taken in recent years.

顯然，任何企業都無法免受經濟放緩的影響，但我們仍然對我們多元化的商業模式和我們近年來採取的投資方式的好處充滿信心。

We've delivered earnings per share results above the high end of our guidance every quarter this year and have raised our full-year earnings per share guidance in each quarter.

我們今年每個季度的每股收益都高於我們指引的高端，並且每個季度都提高了我們的全年每股收益指引。

We are now expecting earnings per share growth of 33% to 35% this year, normalized for legal charges and tax benefit, which is an outstanding achievement in the current economic environment.

我們現在預計今年每股收益將增長 33% 至 35%，將法律費用和稅收優惠標準化，這是在當前經濟環境下的傑出成就。

With those high-level themes, I'm going to turn over the call to Colleen for more details of our third quarter performance.

有了這些高級主題，我將把電話轉給科琳，以了解我們第三季度業績的更多細節。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

It was an excellent quarter with normalized revenue and operating income growth of 14% and 15%, respectively.

這是一個出色的季度，正常化收入和營業收入分別增長了 14% 和 15%。

Normalized EPS growth at 27% was 5 points above high end guidance.

標準化每股收益增長 27%，比高端指導高 5 個百分點。

Revenue growth was driven by continued enterprise customer demand for our core products as well as consumer demand for products and services in the Entertainment and Devices division and our online services business.

收入增長是由企業客戶對我們的核心產品的持續需求以及消費者對娛樂和設備部門以及我們的在線服務業務的產品和服務的需求推動的。

Let me provide you with details of our financial performance, starting with revenue.

讓我為您提供我們財務業績的詳細信息，從收入開始。

I'll discuss top line financial and business momentum points and then follow with revenue performance for each of the business units.

我將討論頂級財務和業務動力點，然後介紹每個業務部門的收入表現。

Then, I'll review the rest of the income statement.

然後，我將查看損益表的其餘部分。

All growth comparisons relate to the comparable quarter of last year, unless otherwise specified.

除非另有說明，否則所有增長比較均與去年可比季度有關。

Revenue was $14.5 billion.

收入為 145 億美元。

Adjusting the year-ago quarter by the $1.7 billion of revenue recognition primarily related to the Technology Guarantee Program for Windows Vista and Office 2007, total revenue grew 14%.

通過主要與 Windows Vista 和 Office 2007 的技術保證計劃相關的 17 億美元收入確認對去年同期進行了調整，總收入增長了 14%。

We estimate PC unit growth rates moderated from our January expectations by a couple of points in mature markets, partially offset by an extra point of strength in emerging markets, resulting in an estimate of approximately 8% to 10% for the entire PC market during the quarter.

我們估計成熟市場的 PC 單位增長率較我們 1 月份的預期放緩了幾個百分點，部分被新興市場的額外增長點所抵消，導致整個 PC 市場在四分之一。

Our mix of product billings for the quarter was approximately 30% from OEMs, 30% from multi-year agreements, 25% from license-only sales and the balance from our other businesses.

我們本季度的產品賬單組合約為 30% 來自 OEM，30% 來自多年協議，25% 來自僅許可銷售，其餘來自我們的其他業務。

Annuity sales mix continued to increase on both a year-over-year and sequential basis while enterprise agreement renewal rates were in line with historical trends.

年金銷售組合繼續同比和環比增長，而企業協議續簽率與歷史趨勢一致。

As we guided, our unearned revenue balance was consistent with historical seasonality patterns and remained roughly flat on a sequential basis at $12.1 billion, up 18% year over year.

正如我們所指導的，我們的未實現收入餘額與歷史季節性模式一致，環比基本持平，為 121 億美元，同比增長 18%。

Our contracted/not billed balance, remains above $11.5 billion and increased sequentially, up well over $1 billion from where we started the fiscal year.

我們的合同/未計費餘額保持在 115 億美元以上，並且比上一財年開始時增加了超過 10 億美元。

When taken together with reported revenue, total bookings for the Company grew 14%.

加上報告的收入，公司的總預訂量增長了 14%。

Now I will provide revenue highlights by business segment, starting with Client.

現在我將按業務部門提供收入亮點，從客戶開始。

Client revenue of $4 billion was down 24% or down 2% adjusted for the tech guarantees.

40 億美元的客戶收入下降了 24% 或根據技術擔保調整後下降 2%。

Adjusting that further for a retail launch bump from last year, Client revenue would have been up 4%.

進一步調整去年零售推出的衝擊，客戶收入將增長 4%。

Let's break down the main drivers behind Client revenue, first for OEM license units and then for OEM revenue.

讓我們分解客戶收入背後的主要驅動因素，首先是 OEM 許可單位，然後是 OEM 收入。

During the quarter our OEM license units increased by 5%, about 4 points lower than the overall hardware market.

在本季度，我們的 OEM 許可單位增加了 5%，比整體硬件市場低約 4 個百分點。

We believe this reversal of the OEM unit trend, outpacing that of the PC market, was primarily driven by three factors.

我們認為 OEM 單位趨勢的逆轉超過 PC 市場，主要是由三個因素推動的。

One, last year OEMs, particularly in the system builder channel, rebuilt inventory levels following the launch of Windows Vista, driving OEM unit growth over 20% during that quarter and making it a tough comp.

第一，去年 OEM，尤其是系統製造商渠道，在推出 Windows Vista 後重建了庫存水平，推動該季度 OEM 單位增長超過 20%，使其成為一個艱難的競爭。

Two, inventory levels at our OEM partners this year were higher than normal, exiting fiscal Q2, impacting this quarter's purchases.

第二，今年我們 OEM 合作夥伴的庫存水平高於第二季度，影響了本季度的採購。

Three, we believe there was an increase in shipments of unlicensed PCs, particularly in Asia.

第三，我們認為無牌個人電腦的出貨量有所增加，尤其是在亞洲。

While we generally feel good about the gains we're making against piracy for the year, piracy is a tough battle in an area where we will need to continue investing in order to make progress.

雖然我們通常對今年打擊盜版所取得的成果感到滿意，但盜版是一場艱苦的戰鬥，我們需要繼續投資以取得進展。

Looking past the individual quarters, PC market growth was up 12% to 14% year to date with OEM license units growing about a point faster, which is in line with our historical rate of progress against piracy.

縱觀各個季度，PC 市場今年迄今增長了 12% 至 14%，其中 OEM 許可單位的增長速度加快了大約一個百分點，這與我們打擊盜版的歷史進展速度一致。

OEM revenue declined 25% but grew a point when normalized for the tech guarantees in the prior year.

OEM 收入下降了 25%，但在上一年的技術保證正常化時增長了一個點。

The 4 percentage point difference between OEM license unit growth and revenue growth was caused by two roughly equivalent factors; namely, the increasing volume in emerging markets and the channel shift to large OEMs from the system builder channel.

OEM 許可單位增長與收入增長之間 4 個百分點的差異是由兩個大致相當的因素造成的；即，新興市場的銷量增加以及從系統構建商渠道向大型OEM的渠道轉移。

Partially offsetting these impacts was an increase in premium mix.

部分抵消這些影響的是保費組合的增加。

Premium mix grew 5 points during the quarter to 76%, driven by an increase in the consumer element of the mix while the business portion was unchanged.

保費組合在本季度增長了 5 個百分點，達到 76%，這是由於組合中消費者元素的增加而業務部分保持不變。

The remaining roughly 20% of Client revenue comes from the commercial and retail licensing portion of the business, which declined 18%, or was down 13% after adjusting for tech guarantees.

剩下的大約 20% 的客戶收入來自業務的商業和零售許可部分，下降了 18%，或者在調整技術保證後下降了 13%。

Normalizing last year's Windows Vista launch bump at approximately $225 million, growth would have been up 23%.

將去年 Windows Vista 的推出量正常化約為 2.25 億美元，增長率將達到 23%。

We continued to see healthy growth in the commercial portion of the business as sales of software assurance were once again strong, as evidenced by the 29% increase in the Client volume licensing portion of the unearned revenue balance.

我們繼續看到業務的商業部分健康增長，因為軟件保障的銷售再次強勁，未實現收入餘額的客戶批量許可部分增加了 29% 就是證明。

Since the launch of Windows Vista, revenue for the Client business has grown 16% with a license growth rate of 1 to 2 points above that of the PC hardware market.

自 Windows Vista 推出以來，客戶端業務的收入增長了 16%，許可增長率比 PC 硬件市場高 1 到 2 個百分點。

Over 140 million licenses of Windows Vista have been sold by -- to date and Service Pack One was released in the quarter.

迄今為止，已售出超過 1.4 億份 Windows Vista 許可證，並且在本季度發布了 Service Pack One。

Moving to Server and Tools, revenue up $3.3 billion represented an increase of 18%, marking its 23rd consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

轉向服務器和工具，收入增長 33 億美元，增長 18%，連續第 23 個季度實現兩位數增長。

Customers continue to gravitate towards premium versions of Windows Server and SQL Server, as well as to annuity contracts.

客戶繼續傾向於高級版本的 Windows Server 和 SQL Server，以及年金合同。

The increased billing mix of annuity contracts drove the unearned revenue balance for the division up by over 35% versus last year.

年金合同計費組合的增加使該部門的未實現收入餘額比去年增加了 35% 以上。

Our consulting and support services revenue increased 24% as we have experienced high demand following the recent launches across our product line.

我們的諮詢和支持服務收入增長了 24%，因為我們在最近推出的產品線後經歷了高需求。

The third quarter also marked the launch activities for the new versions of our flagship products in the Server and Tools division, namely Windows Server 2008, SQL Server 2008 and Visual Studio 2008.

第三季度還標誌著我們在服務器和工具部門的旗艦產品新版本的發布活動，即 Windows Server 2008、SQL Server 2008 和 Visual Studio 2008。

These products bring powerful new tools to our customers and partners looking to turn their IT departments into a strategic asset.

這些產品為我們希望將其 IT 部門轉變為戰略資產的客戶和合作夥伴帶來了強大的新工具。

For example, Windows Server 2008 with virtualization technology will help customers increase reliability and flexibility of their server infrastructure, reduce cost and increase security.

例如，採用虛擬化技術的 Windows Server 2008 將幫助客戶提高其服務器基礎架構的可靠性和靈活性，降低成本並提高安全性。

Online Services business grew revenue 40% to $843 million.

在線服務業務收入增長 40% 至 8.43 億美元。

This included $143 million from the addition of aQuantive.

其中包括來自 aQuantive 的 1.43 億美元。

Online advertising grew 39% or was up 29% excluding the $47 million of ad revenue from aQuantive.

在線廣告增長 39% 或增長 29%，不包括 aQuantive 的 4700 萬美元廣告收入。

Our Online audience continues to grow.

我們的在線觀眾繼續增長。

Live IDs increased 18% to $448 million while usage deepened with search queries and page views up from the prior year.

Live ID 增長了 18%，達到 4.48 億美元，而使用量隨著搜索查詢和頁面瀏覽量的增加而加深。

In the quarter, we announced a number of acquisitions including Caligari for collaborative 3-D modeling, YaData for customer micro segment management and Rapt for behavioral targeting.

在本季度，我們宣布了多項收購，包括用於協作 3-D 建模的 Caligari、用於客戶微細分管理的 YaData 和用於行為定位的 Rapt。

And of course, in February, we proposed to purchase Yahoo!.

當然，在二月份，我們提議收購雅虎！

Chris will go into more details about Yahoo!

Chris 將詳細介紹 Yahoo!

later in the call.

稍後在通話中。

Microsoft Business Division revenue was $4.7 billion, down 2% but up 9% adjusted for tech guarantees in fiscal year 2008.

微軟業務部門的收入為 47 億美元，下降 2%，但在 2008 財年經技術擔保調整後增長了 9%。

Adjusted for last year's retail launch bump of about $150 million, revenue would have grown 13% with business customer revenue growth of 17%.

對去年約 1.5 億美元的零售額進行調整後，收入將增長 13%，商業客戶收入增長 17%。

Our expanded portfolio of productivity products are thriving with share point revenue up over 35%, unified communications up over 20% and dynamic customer billings up 13%.

我們擴展的生產力產品組合蓬勃發展，共享點收入增長超過 35%，統一通信增長超過 20%，動態客戶計費增長 13%。

On the strategic front, we announced acquisition of Fast Search & Transfer to enhance our enterprise search offering.

在戰略方面，我們宣布收購 Fast Search & Transfer 以增強我們的企業搜索產品。

During the quarter, we also held our SharePoint and Convergence conferences, which both saw record attendance by customers and partners.

在本季度，我們還舉辦了 SharePoint 和 Convergence 會議，客戶和合作夥伴的出席率均創歷史新高。

And we expanded on our software plus services division by announcing that the beta of SharePoint online and Exchange online will be open to companies of all sizes.

我們還宣布，SharePoint online 和 Exchange online 的測試版將對各種規模的公司開放，從而擴展了我們的軟件和服務部門。

Entertainment and Devices division grew revenue 68% to $1.6 billion, over $300 million above our high-end guidance, driven by the sale of 1.3 million Xbox 360 consoles.

娛樂和設備部門的收入增長了 68%，達到 16 億美元，比我們的高端指導高出 3 億多美元，這得益於 130 萬台 Xbox 360 遊戲機的銷售。

High holiday demand for Xbox 360 consoles during the preceding quarter in which Xbox 360 outsold PlayStation 3 by over 1 million units in the US, led to a short channel inventory for much of this quarter.

上一季度對 Xbox 360 遊戲機的高假期需求，其中 Xbox 360 在美國的銷量超過 PlayStation 3 超過 100 萬台，導致本季度大部分時間渠道庫存短缺。

However, according to US NPD Data, by March Xbox 360 had reclaimed its monthly consoles sales lead over the PS3.

然而，根據美國 NPD 數據，截至 3 月，Xbox 360 已經重新奪回了其對 PS3 的月度遊戲機銷量領先優勢。

With retail inventory restored to more healthy levels, Xbox 360 is well-positioned as the industry anticipates next week's launch of Grant Theft Auto 4.

隨著零售庫存恢復到更健康的水平，Xbox 360 處於有利位置，因為業界預計下週將推出 Grant Theft Auto 4。

During the quarter, we announced acquisition of Danger, which closed last week, and announced the November target release date for Gears of War, the highly anticipated sequel to the fastest selling video game of 2007.

在本季度，我們宣布收購了上週完成的 Danger，並宣布了《戰爭機器》的 11 月目標發布日期，這款備受期待的 2007 年最暢銷視頻遊戲的續作。

Now for the rest of the income statement.

現在是損益表的其餘部分。

Cost of revenue increased by $370 million, primarily driven by higher Xbox 360 consoles sales.

收入成本增加了 3.7 億美元，主要受 Xbox 360 遊戲機銷量增長的推動。

growth in our consulting business, expansion of data center operations and the addition of aQuantive costs.

我們的諮詢業務增長、數據中心運營的擴展以及 aQuantive 成本的增加。

After adjusting the year-ago quarter for the impact of tech guarantees, cost of revenue held flat at 17% of sales.

在根據技術保障的影響調整了去年同期的季度後，收入成本佔銷售額的 17% 持平。

Operating expenses increased almost $1.9 billion or up 33%, primarily due to $1.4 billion of legal charges relating to the European Commission find assessed in February.

運營費用增加近 19 億美元或增長 33%，主要是由於與歐盟委員會在 2 月份評估的結果相關的 14 億美元法律費用。

Adjusting for that charge in the current quarter at $150 million of legal charges in the same quarter of last year, operating expenses increased $600 million, up 11%.

將本季度的該費用調整為去年同期 1.5 億美元的法律費用，運營費用增加了 6 億美元，增長了 11%。

This is favorable to our expectations, due to lower headcount-driven costs and some shift of marketing expense into the fourth quarter.

這有利於我們的預期，因為較低的員工成本驅動成本和一些營銷費用轉移到第四季度。

Operating income was $4.4 billion.

營業收入為 44 億美元。

After adjusting for the impact of tech guarantees and legal charges, operating income grew 15%, one point faster than revenue growth.

調整技術擔保和法律費用的影響後，營業收入增長 15%，比收入增長快 1 個百分點。

Investment income and other totaled $401 million for the quarter as the Treasury team continued to do an outstanding job in challenging capital markets.

本季度的投資收入和其他收入總計 4.01 億美元，因為財政部團隊在挑戰資本市場方面繼續表現出色。

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 9%.

我們本季度的有效稅率為 9%。

During the quarter, we settled a 2000 to 2003 examination with the IRS.

在本季度，我們與美國國稅局完成了 2000 年至 2003 年的考試。

As a result, we reduced our previously accrued tax provision by $1.4 billion, which was partially offset by the non-tax deductibility of the European Commission find, resulting in our adjusted effective tax rate for the quarter of 29%.

因此，我們將之前的應計稅款準備金減少了 14 億美元，這部分被歐盟委員會發現的非稅收減免性所抵消，導致我們調整後的本季度有效稅率為 29%。

During the quarter we repurchased 30 million shares or $1 billion of Company stock and paid out over $1 billion in dividends to shareholders.

在本季度，我們回購了 3000 萬股或 10 億美元的公司股票，並向股東支付了超過 10 億美元的股息。

Diluted shares outstanding for the quarter were 9.4 billion, down 4% from the prior year, as a result of share repurchases.

由於股票回購，本季度流通在外的稀釋股為 94 億股，比上年下降 4%。

Earnings per share for the quarter were $0.47, which was $0.02 to $0.04 above our guidance after adjusting for the offsetting impact of the $0.15 EPS charge from the European Commission find and the $0.15 EPS benefit from the resolution of the tax examination.

本季度每股收益為 0.47 美元，在調整了歐盟委員會發現的 0.15 美元每股收益費用的抵消影響和稅務檢查決議帶來的 0.15 美元每股收益後，比我們的指引高出 0.02 美元至 0.04 美元。

So, in summary, our diversification across geographies, product lines, customers segments and product lifecycles produced 14% top-line and 27% bottom-line growth.

因此，總而言之，我們在地域、產品線、客戶細分和產品生命週期方面的多元化帶來了 14% 的收入和 27% 的利潤增長。

This allowed us to generate over $7 billion of operating cash flow, the second highest level in the history of Microsoft.

這使我們產生了超過 70 億美元的運營現金流，這是微軟歷史上第二高的水平。

With that, let me turn it back to Chris, who will provide you with our fourth quarter guidance and our preliminary outlook for fiscal year 2009.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回到克里斯，他將為您提供我們的第四季度指導和我們對 2009 財年的初步展望。

I'm going to spend my remaining time on the call giving you a view of our expectations for the fourth quarter, followed by a preliminary view of fiscal 2009.

我將把剩下的時間花在電話會議上，讓您了解我們對第四季度的預期，然後是對 2009 財年的初步看法。

I also note that we have about twice the number of people on the call as normal, so for some of the newcomers I will also make some brief comments on our proposed acquisition of Yahoo!.

我還注意到，我們的電話會議人數大約是平時的兩倍，所以對於一些新來者，我還將對我們提議的收購雅虎做一些簡短的評論。

Let me begin by outlining some of our key assumptions for the fourth quarter.

讓我首先概述我們對第四季度的一些關鍵假設。

We've assumed the following macroeconomic conditions for the remainder of the year.

我們假設今年剩餘時間的宏觀經濟狀況如下。

We expect the software spending environment to remain mixed but positive overall on a global basis, especially for the positioning of our products and the value they offer.

我們預計全球軟件支出環境將保持喜憂參半，但總體上是積極的，特別是在我們產品的定位和它們提供的價值方面。

Like you, we're cautious on the reported economic softness in the US, but at this point we have not seen any significant spillover to our businesses.

和您一樣，我們對美國經濟疲軟的報導持謹慎態度，但目前我們還沒有看到對我們業務的任何重大溢出效應。

We continue to benefit from strong underlying growth in non-US and emerging markets, which has also been assisted by stronger international currencies.

我們繼續受益於非美國和新興市場強勁的潛在增長，這也得益於國際貨幣走強。

For the fourth quarter we expect PC hardware unit growth of 9% to 11%.

對於第四季度，我們預計 PC 硬件單位增長 9% 至 11%。

Growth will continue to be driven by strength in emerging markets while we're tempering our forecasted growth rates in mature markets.

新興市場的強勁增長將繼續推動增長，同時我們正在調整成熟市場的預測增長率。

To go with our detailed fourth quarter guidance and year-over-year growth rates, we expect revenue of $15.5 billion to $15.8 billion, representing excellent growth of 16% to 18% over fiscal 2007.

根據我們詳細的第四季度指導和同比增長率，我們預計收入為 155 億美元至 158 億美元，比 2007 財年增長 16% 至 18%。

Revenue guidance by business unit is as follows.

按業務部門劃分的收入指引如下。

For Client we expect revenue growth of 7% to 11% for the fourth quarter.

對於客戶，我們預計第四季度收入增長 7% 至 11%。

The guidance assumes OEM units will grow in line to slightly ahead of the PC hardware market, and underlying PC market dynamics in the consumer and emerging markets segments will drive OEM unit growth in excess of OEM revenue.

該指引假設 OEM 單位的增長將略微領先於 PC 硬件市場，而消費和新興市場領域的潛在 PC 市場動態將推動 OEM 單位的增長超過 OEM 收入。

Server and Tools revenue should grow 18% to 20% in the fourth quarter.

服務器和工具收入在第四季度應該會增長 18% 到 20%。

We expect corporate demand for our Server products to remain strong, which will drive double-digit growth across the breadth of our Server platform products and services.

我們預計企業對我們的服務器產品的需求將保持強勁，這將推動我們的服務器平台產品和服務的廣度實現兩位數的增長。

In the Online Services business we forecast revenue to be up 37% to 41% for the fourth quarter.

在在線服務業務中，我們預計第四季度的收入將增長 37% 至 41%。

Microsoft Business division revenue should grow 15% to 16% on continued demand for the 2007 Office Suite, SharePoint and Office Communications Server.

由於對 2007 Office Suite、SharePoint 和 Office Communications Server 的持續需求，Microsoft 業務部門的收入應該會增長 15% 到 16%。

Lastly, Entertainment and Devices division revenue is expected to grow 32% to 34%, driven by strong demand for Xbox 360 consoles and games.

最後，由於對 Xbox 360 遊戲機和遊戲的強勁需求，娛樂和設備部門的收入預計將增長 32% 至 34%。

Turning back to companywide performance, operating income for the fourth quarter is expected to be between $5.8 billion and $6.2 billion, representing 46% to 54% growth over the prior year, which included the Xbox 360 warranty charges.

回到全公司業績，第四季度的營業收入預計在 58 億美元至 62 億美元之間，比上年增長 46% 至 54%，其中包括 Xbox 360 保修費用。

Excluding those charges, operating income should grow a very healthy 15% to 22%.

不計這些費用，營業收入應該會增長 15% 到 22%，非常健康。

Fully diluted earnings per share are expected to come in at $0.45 to $0.48 for the fourth quarter, and this guidance assumes an effective tax rate of 30%.

第四季度完全攤薄後的每股收益預計為 0.45 美元至 0.48 美元，該指引假設有效稅率為 30%。

So, with our fourth-quarter guidance, we arrive at the following expectations for the full fiscal year 2008.

因此，根據我們第四季度的指導，我們對 2008 年整個財年的預期如下。

Revenue of $60.1 billion to $60.3 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 17% to 18%; operating income of $22.6 billion to $23 billion.

收入 601 億美元至 603 億美元，同比增長 17% 至 18%；營業收入為 226 億美元至 230 億美元。

Excluding the European commission fine of $1.4 billion (technical difficulty) quarter, operating income would have been $24 billion to $24.4 billion, and for fully diluted earnings per share we expect $1.87 to $1.90, representing growth of 33% to 35% when normalized for legal charges and tax benefits.

排除歐盟委員會 14 億美元（技術難度）季度的罰款，營業收入將在 240 億美元至 244 億美元之間，對於完全攤薄後的每股收益，我們預計為 1.87 美元至 1.90 美元，按法定標準正常化後增長 33% 至 35%收費和稅收優惠。

With the close of Fast Search & Transfer acquisition since the last time we provided you with guidance in January, we've updated our fiscal year '08 guidance to include an estimate of about $50 million of in-process R&D and integration costs related to the acquisition.

自從我們上次在 1 月份向您提供指導以來，隨著快速搜索和轉移收購的結束，我們更新了 08 財年的指導，包括估計約 5000 萬美元的過程中研發和與獲得。

From a balance sheet perspective, we're maintaining our previous forecast of total unearned revenue balance to finish fiscal 2008 up 14% to 16% over prior years.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們維持之前對未實現收入餘額總額的預測，到 2008 財年結束時將比往年增長 14% 至 16%。

Contracted/not billed should also finish 2008 up from current levels.

2008 年已簽約/未開票也應高於當前水平。

With that, let's turn our current thinking about the next fiscal year.

有了這個，讓我們改變我們目前對下一個財政年度的想法。

Remember this represents our preliminary view prior to complaining our internal budgeting and planning process, which occurs during the fiscal fourth quarter.

請記住，這代表了我們在抱怨我們的內部預算和計劃流程之前的初步觀點，該流程發生在第四財季。

This guidance does not include any impacts from our proposed acquisition of Yahoo!.

本指南不包括我們擬收購雅虎的任何影響。

Our current forecast for fiscal 2009 revenue is $66.9 billion to $68.0 billion, which represents growth of 11% to 13%.

我們目前對 2009 財年收入的預測為 669 億美元至 680 億美元，增長率為 11% 至 13%。

On an absolute basis, that represents an increase of approximately $7 billion to $8 billion of incremental revenue.

在絕對基礎上，這意味著增加了大約 70 億至 80 億美元的增量收入。

We expect operating income to be between $26.7 billion and $27.4 billion or growing 18% to 19%.

我們預計營業收入將在 267 億美元至 274 億美元之間，或增長 18% 至 19%。

Excluding the European Commission fine in fiscal 2008, operating income is expected to grow roughly in line with revenue growth.

剔除歐盟委員會在 2008 財年的罰款，預計營業收入將大致與收入增長保持一致。

Although the mix of our COGS and operating expense of the business is still preliminary, we expect operating income margins to remain generally flat year on year, which includes the impact of about $500 million of additional expenses related to recently announced acquisitions, including Fast and Danger, which were not in our forecast when we saw many of you in New York in February.

儘管我們的銷貨成本和業務運營費用的組合仍處於初步階段，但我們預計營業利潤率將同比基本持平，其中包括與最近宣布的收購相關的約 5 億美元額外費用的影響，包括 Fast and Danger ，當我們二月份在紐約見到你們中的許多人時，這不在我們的預測中。

We look forward to providing more detail on fiscal '09 investments on our fourth quarter earnings call and our fiscal analyst meeting on July 24.

我們期待在第四季度財報電話會議和 7 月 24 日的財務分析師會議上提供有關 09 財年投資的更多細節。

So, for the rest of the income statement, we expect investment income to be lower in fiscal '09 due to lower yields from the investment portfolio as a result of lower interest rate environments, but we're also modeling a decline in our tax rate to 28% in fiscal 2009, driven by a continued shift in our earnings mix towards lower tax rate jurisdictions.

因此，對於損益表的其餘部分，我們預計 09 財年的投資收入將較低，因為較低的利率環境導致投資組合的收益率較低，但我們也在模擬我們的稅率下降2009 財年這一比例達到 28%，這是由於我們的收入組合持續向低稅率司法管轄區轉移。

We expect fully diluted earnings per share of $2.13 to $2.19, representing growth of 14% to 15%.

我們預計完全攤薄後每股收益為 2.13 美元至 2.19 美元，增長 14% 至 15%。

As always, I'll remind you to think about the guidance that we've provided.

與往常一樣，我會提醒您考慮我們提供的指導。

You must also consider the risks.

您還必須考慮風險。

These include competitors, legal, execution and general market risks such as foreign exchange, [for example], fluctuations in PC and server hardware growth rates, IT spending, changes in the piracy rates of our products and customer acceptance of our new and existing products.

這些包括競爭對手、法律、執行和一般市場風險，例如外匯、PC 和服務器硬件增長率的波動、IT 支出、我們產品盜版率的變化以及客戶對我們新產品和現有產品的接受度.

Additionally, changes in the mix of our billings between annuity and license-only can have an impact on revenue, operating income and earnings per share by delaying revenue recognition into future periods.

此外，我們在年金和僅許可之間的賬單組合的變化可能會通過將收入確認延遲到未來期間來對收入、營業收入和每股收益產生影響。

I'd like to wrap up with a couple of final comments.

最後，我想發表幾點意見。

First, as you consider the performance we're delivering in fiscal 2008 and the preliminary view of fiscal '09, they're great examples of the growth model we've had for the Company, which I've outlined previously.

首先，當您考慮到我們在 2008 財年實現的業績和 09 財年的初步看法時，它們是我們為公司所採用的增長模式的絕佳示例，我之前已對此進行了概述。

It begins by focusing on the growth opportunities where we can differentiate ourselves through software and, particularly, business IT spending, but also increasingly online advertising and consumer entertainment.

它首先關注增長機會，我們可以通過軟件，特別是商業 IT 支出，以及越來越多的在線廣告和消費者娛樂來實現差異化。

Add to that a truly global approach to our sales with two-thirds of our revenue driven from users outside of the US and about 15% in high-growth emerging markets.

再加上我們真正的全球銷售方式，我們三分之二的收入來自美國以外的用戶，約 15% 來自高增長的新興市場。

These opportunities set the stage for healthy, broad-based revenue growth across our businesses.

這些機會為我們業務的健康、廣泛的收入增長奠定了基礎。

That revenue growth allows us to reinvest into our existing business, pursue both organic and inorganic growth opportunities, while continuing to grow operating profits.

這種收入增長使我們能夠對現有業務進行再投資，尋求有機和無機增長機會，同時繼續增加營業利潤。

Operating profits combined with reductions in our share count and improvements in our tax rate drive earnings per share growth.

營業利潤加上我們股票數量的減少和稅率的提高推動了每股收益的增長。

If we achieve the guidance we have outlined today over the three-year period through fiscal year '09 during one of the most difficult economic environments we have faced, we will grow earnings per share approximately 80%.

如果我們在我們面臨的最困難的經濟環境之一中，在截至 09 財年的三年期間內實現我們今天概述的指導，我們的每股收益將增長約 80%。

Lastly, before handing the call back to Colleen, I wanted to provide a brief update on our proposal to acquire Yahoo!.

最後，在將電話轉回給科琳之前，我想簡要介紹一下我們收購雅虎的提議。

With or without a Yahoo!

有或沒有 Yahoo!

combination, Microsoft is focused on the online advertising market, which is expected to double by 2010 to $80 billion.

結合起來，微軟專注於在線廣告市場，預計到 2010 年將翻一番，達到 800 億美元。

Although Yahoo!

雖然雅虎！

would accelerate our efforts, we have an existing strategy that is already centered on three key pillars -- drive innovation in search, increase value to advertisers and publishers through innovation and scale, and grow user engagement across our MSN and Windows Live properties.

將加快我們的努力，我們現有的戰略已經集中在三個關鍵支柱上——推動搜索創新，通過創新和規模為廣告商和出版商增加價值，以及在我們的 MSN 和 Windows Live 資產中增加用戶參與度。

We have an extremely talented engineering team, a great portfolio of advertiser and publisher tools and key assets in information content, communications and social networking.

我們擁有一支才華橫溢的工程團隊，擁有豐富的廣告商和發布商工具組合，以及信息內容、通信和社交網絡方面的關鍵資產。

Lastly, we're committed to compete in online advertising through organic investments, partnerships and acquisitions, such as aQuantive and Rapt.

最後，我們致力於通過有機投資、合作和收購（例如 aQuantive 和 Rapt）在在線廣告領域展開競爭。

With respect to Yahoo!, we have been clear, as is evidenced in the size of our offer premium, that speed is of the essence for the deal to make sense and get folded into our online strategy.

關於雅虎，我們一直很清楚，正如我們的報價溢價規模所證明的那樣，速度對於使交易有意義並融入我們的在線戰略至關重要。

Unfortunately, the transaction has been anything but speedy and has been characterized by what would appear to be unrealistic expectations of value.

不幸的是，這筆交易並不迅速，而且其特點是對價值的期望似乎不切實際。

Our initial offer was an extremely generous, more than 100% premium for Yahoo!'s core business and our view on value is shaped by the long-term value of the Company, and we intend to remain disciplined in our approach.

我們最初的報價非常慷慨，對雅虎的核心業務溢價超過 100%，我們對價值的看法是由公司的長期價值決定的，我們打算在我們的方法中保持自律。

The strongest argument that I've heard on why we should increase our bid, simply that we can afford to, is not one that I favor.

我聽過的關於為什麼我們應該提高出價的最有力的論據，僅僅是我們可以負擔得起的，我並不贊成。

We have yet to see tangible evidence that our bid substantially undervalues the Company.

我們尚未看到有形證據表明我們的出價大大低估了公司的價值。

In fact, we see the opposite.

事實上，我們看到的恰恰相反。

Yahoo!

雅虎！

continues to lose search share, and profitability continues to decline year on year.

搜索份額繼續流失，盈利能力同比繼續下滑。

The results that they announced on Tuesday were in line with the guidance that they gave on their last earnings call on January 29, after which their stock price closed at $19.05 and Wall Street analysts' consensus on value was significantly decreased.

他們週二公佈的結果與他們在 1 月 29 日最後一次財報電話會議上給出的指引一致，之後他們的股價收於 19.05 美元，華爾街分析師對價值的共識顯著下降。

As outlined in our recent letter to the Yahoo!

正如我們最近緻雅虎的信中所述！

Board, unless we made progress with Yahoo!

董事會，除非我們在 Yahoo! 上取得進展

towards an agreement by this weekend, we will reconsider our alternatives.

為了在本週末達成協議，我們將重新考慮我們的替代方案。

We will provide updates as appropriate next week.

我們將在下週酌情提供更新。

These alternatives clearly include taking an offer to Yahoo!

這些替代方案顯然包括向 Yahoo! 提出要約。

shareholders or to withdraw our proposal and focus on other opportunities, both organic and inorganic.

股東或撤回我們的提議並專注於有機和無機的其他機會。

So that being said, I'd like to remind you that we're here today to discuss our earnings, and we hope you understand that we can't go beyond, in the Q&A session, what I've just said.

話雖如此，我想提醒你，我們今天在這裡討論我們的收益，我們希望你明白，在問答環節，我們不能超越我剛才所說的。

With that, I'll hand the call back to Colleen so we can get started taking your questions.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給科琳，這樣我們就可以開始回答你的問題了。

Let's now proceed to questions.

現在讓我們繼續提問。

We want to accommodate questions from as many people as possible, so please avoid multipart questions and limit yourself to just one question.

我們希望容納盡可能多的人提出的問題，因此請避免多部分問題並將自己限制在一個問題上。

Operator, will you please repeat your instructions?

接線員，請您重複一下您的指示好嗎？

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Charlie DiBona, Sanford Bernstein.

（操作員說明）查理·迪博納，桑福德·伯恩斯坦。

Hi, Chris.

嗨，克里斯。

I know it's early, but I was wondering if we could maybe dive a little bit into your fiscal 2009 guidance.

我知道現在還為時過早，但我想知道我們是否可以深入了解您的 2009 財年指導。

In particular, you are calling for something around 12% revenue growth here.

特別是，您在這裡要求大約 12% 的收入增長。

With the US economy looking like it's getting weaker, it doesn't sound like you have included any kind of recession in your forecasting.

隨著美國經濟看起來越來越疲軟，聽起來您的預測中並未包含任何類型的衰退。

But can you maybe characterize your view of your business and how insulated it would be from a US-based downturn and how solid that number looks, if the economy starts to get weaker?

但是，如果經濟開始走弱，您能否描述您對您的業務的看法，以及它與美國經濟衰退的隔離程度以及該數字看起來有多可靠？

The first thing to comment on is in line with some of the prepared remarks that we made.

首先要評論的是與我們所做的一些準備好的評論一致。

One of the great things about our business from my perspective is the diversification and the diversification across geographies and across business types.

從我的角度來看，我們業務的一大優點是跨地域和跨業務類型的多樣化和多樣化。

So clearly, we, like everyone else, would be impacted by an economic downturn, if one was to get worse than where it is.

很明顯，我們和其他所有人一樣，都會受到經濟衰退的影響，如果情況比現在更糟的話。

But we have built in what we considered to be an appropriate level of conservatism at this stage for next year.

但我們已經在這個階段為明年建立了我們認為適當的保守主義水平。

I just remind you that two-thirds of our business is now outside the US, and some proportion, around 15%, [in] very strong growth emerging markets.

我只是提醒你，我們三分之二的業務現在在美國以外，還有一部分（大約 15%）在增長非常強勁的新興市場。

So a very good geographic spread, and also, clearly, a weak US dollar helps us from that perspective.

因此，非常好的地理分佈，而且很明顯，疲軟的美元從這個角度來看對我們有幫助。

The other thing to mention is, this year would be one year that most people would say has been one of relatively difficult economic conditions, so this is a year where, if we finish out along the guidance that we've talked about, we will have grown revenue by 17% to 18% and earnings per share by 33% to 35%.

另一件事要提到的是，今年將是大多數人會說的經濟狀況相對困難的一年，所以這是一年，如果我們按照我們談到的指導完成，我們將收入增長了 17% 至 18%，每股收益增長了 33% 至 35%。

So, if we can turn in a performance like that in what a lot of people are finding to be a particularly difficult year, then that gives me a lot of confidence in our business model going forward.

所以，如果我們能在很多人認為特別困難的一年裡表現出這樣的表現，那麼這讓我對我們未來的商業模式充滿信心。

Sarah Friar, Goldman Sachs.

莎拉·弗萊爾，高盛。

Chris, the FY 2009 EPS guidance is quite robust.

克里斯，2009 財年每股收益指引相當穩健。

So could you give us a sense for what does that assume in terms of the investment required for your goals in the Online Services business?

那麼，您能否讓我們了解一下您在在線服務業務中實現目標所需的投資是什麼假設？

And if, for whatever reason, you don't get Yahoo!, do you have to come back and revise down the margin for a build versus a buy decision?

如果，無論出於何種原因，你沒有得到 Yahoo!，你是否必須回來修改構建與購買決定的保證金？

There's a reasonable amount of additional growth in our expense line for the online already embedded into fiscal year '09, Sarah.

對於已經嵌入到 09 財年的在線業務，我們的支出線有合理的額外增長，莎拉。

So we'll obviously give you more detail in three months, because we haven't completed our internal budgeting.

所以我們顯然會在三個月內給你更多細節，因為我們還沒有完成我們的內部預算。

But if you look at the makeup of the expense growth, then it's around 20% to 25% of that growth will be to drive our Online Services division and for those final numbers to be determined in the next three months.

但如果你看一下費用增長的構成，那麼大約 20% 到 25% 的增長將用於推動我們的在線服務部門，最終數字將在未來三個月內確定。

The balance of will go into other high-growth areas in the other divisions, into things like building our sales force, in particular outside of the US.

其餘部分將用於其他部門的其他高增長領域，例如建立我們的銷售隊伍，特別是在美國以外的地區。

And then we're getting other impacts like FX and so forth coming in as well.

然後我們也得到了其他影響，比如 FX 等等。

But there is already a reasonably high proportion of expense growth allocated to the Online Services area.

但已經有相當高比例的支出增長分配給在線服務領域。

And also, in terms of CapEx, we're expecting to spend more next year, and that's embedded in our numbers as well, then this year.

而且，就資本支出而言，我們預計明年會花費更多，這也包含在我們的數據中，然後是今年。

So clearly, if Yahoo!

很明顯，如果 Yahoo!

was to happen, we'd have to overlay that impact.

會發生，我們必須覆蓋這種影響。

We would still think about spending, I would think, virtually all of that money in terms of organic growth, anyway.

無論如何，我們仍然會考慮將幾乎所有的錢花在有機增長方面。

If Yahoo!

如果雅虎！

wasn't to happen, could we consider other investments?

不會發生，我們可以考慮其他投資嗎？

Yes, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

是的，但是當我們到達它時，我們會越過那座橋。

The currency impact on the quarter -- could you just give us a sense for that?

貨幣對本季度的影響——你能給我們一個感覺嗎？

Yes, around 3% benefit, and -- both on the revenue and the expense side.

是的，大約 3% 的收益，而且——在收入和費用方面。

So if you like, in the expenses, that's a negative, but a 3% impact, broadly speaking, in both revenue and expenses.

因此，如果您願意，在支出方面，這是一個負面的影響，但從廣義上講，對收入和支出都有 3% 的影響。

Heather Bellini, UBS.

瑞銀集團的希瑟·貝里尼。

I know piracy is a difficult thing to solve for each quarter, but I know your comps here are getting tough in the second half of calendar year '08.

我知道盜版對於每個季度來說都是一件很難解決的事情，但我知道你的比賽在 08 日曆年的下半年變得越來越艱難。

So how should we think about your progress, your progress you made in the second half of '07?

那麼我們應該如何看待你的進步，你在07年下半年取得的進步？

How much of a tough comp does that give you for the Client business, then, in the second half of '08?

那麼，在 08 年下半年，這對客戶業務有多大影響？

Then my follow-up question was just about the buybacks.

然後我的後續問題只是關於回購。

I believe I read in your Q, you cut them to about $1 billion this quarter.

我相信我在您的 Q 中讀到，您本季度將其削減至約 10 億美元。

Should we expect that level to stay until we know the outcome of the Yahoo!

在我們知道雅虎的結果之前，我們是否應該期望該水平保持不變？

transaction?

交易？

Sure, okay.

當然可以。

Starting with piracy, you're right; on a quarter-by-quarter basis, and I've talked to you and other investors about this, it's difficult to look on piracy on a quarter-by-quarter because we can see individual enforcement actions make a big difference in any one quarter.

從盜版開始，你是對的；按季度計算，我已經與您和其他投資者討論過這個問題，很難逐個季度地看待盜版，因為我們可以看到個人執法行動在任何一個季度都會產生很大的影響.

So we had a very good performance in the first two quarters of the year, the first and second quarter of our fiscal year; a relatively weak performance -- in fact, it was a negative in this quarter.

所以我們在今年的前兩個季度，我們財年的第一和第二季度都有非常好的表現；表現相對較弱——事實上，本季度是負面的。

So overall for the year, we still think that we will drive unit growth 1% to 2% higher than underlying market growth as a result of our combating piracy.

因此，總體而言，我們仍然認為，由於我們打擊盜版，我們將推動單位增長比潛在市場增長高出 1% 至 2%。

But relative to the first couple quarters, when we had very good performance, that's a little lower.

但相對於前幾個季度，當我們有非常好的表現時，這要低一些。

So we still think it's a positive trend overall.

因此，我們仍然認為總體而言這是一個積極的趨勢。

But you are correct; it does get progressively harder.

但你是對的；它確實變得越來越難。

In this particular quarter, we had -- a couple of distributors had a particularly high distribution of unlicensed PCs in China, due to some market conditions there.

在這個特定的季度，由於那裡的一些市場條件，我們有幾個分銷商在中國的非授權 PC 分銷量特別高。

You can have that sort of one-off impact, so it's much better to look at it on a year-by-year rather than a quarter-by-quarter (multiple speakers).

您可以產生這種一次性的影響，因此最好逐年而不是逐季度（多個發言者）查看它。

Just to stay on that topic, because that means that in the September and December quarter of calendar year '08, you've got pretty good comps.

只是停留在這個話題上，因為這意味著在 08 日曆年的 9 月和 12 月季度，你有相當不錯的成績。

Is that the situation where we should expect your -- the OEM to be below PC shipments for you guys, for your revenue to grow less than PC shipments?

這是我們應該期待你們的情況 - OEM 將低於你們的 PC 出貨量，因為你們的收入增長低於 PC 出貨量？

Are you talking about for the fourth quarter, or for the year?

你說的是第四季度還是全年？

No; I'm talking about for September and December, given the tough comps you have -- September and December of '08, you've got tough comps in piracy versus September and December of '07.

不;我說的是 9 月和 12 月，考慮到你有艱難的比賽 - 08 年的 9 月和 12 月，與 07 年的 9 月和 12 月相比，你在盜版方面有艱難的比賽。

I think, for next year, but I just don't want to get into too much guidance.

我想，明年，但我只是不想接受太多指導。

We still think that we will grow units more than PC demand, but you'll get the same impact that you've seen for this year, which is, to the extent that it grows faster in emerging and mature markets, et cetera, then revenue will be slightly lower than unit growth, and that will probably wash out to mean that revenue will be broadly in line or just slightly below overall market growth.

我們仍然認為我們的銷量增長將超過 PC 需求，但您將獲得與今年相同的影響，即在新興市場和成熟市場等增長更快的情況下，然後收入將略低於單位增長，這可能意味著收入將大致符合或略低於整體市場增長。

But we still think that our unit growth will be higher than market growth.

但我們仍然認為我們的單位增長將高於市場增長。

And then just the buyback question?

然後只是回購問題？

On the buyback, yes, you are correct.

關於回購，是的，你是對的。

It was low this quarter, in particular because of the Yahoo!

本季度處於低位，尤其是因為雅虎！

transaction.

交易。

I want to maintain the most amount of flexibility for that transaction in terms of our cash buildup and how that -- the final transaction might work, if it does.

我想在我們的現金積累以及如何實現該交易方面保持最大的靈活性 - 如果確實如此，最終交易可能會奏效。

Therefore, I don't tend to get into quarter-by-quarter and I don't want to give specifics.

因此，我不傾向於逐季度討論，也不想提供細節。

But also, we -- just from a legal perspective it's difficult for us to be too active in the buyback market.

而且，我們 - 僅從法律角度來看，我們很難在回購市場上過於活躍。

So I would expect us to be relatively modest from a buyback perspective until we get clarity on Yahoo!, one way or the other.

因此，我希望我們從回購的角度來看是相對溫和的，直到我們以一種或另一種方式明確雅虎！

Kash Rangan, Merrill Lynch.

卡什蘭根，美林證券。

If you just look at the guidance philosophically, Chris, compared to the last couple of years, at the same time of year when we were giving guidance for the upcoming year, I think guidance has been generally below consensus or bracketing consensus, seemingly conservative, giving you that option really to outperform as you execute on your model.

如果你只是從哲學上看指導，克里斯，與過去幾年相比，在我們為來年提供指導的同一時間，我認為指導普遍低於共識或括號內的共識，看似保守，當您在模型上執行時，為您提供真正超越性能的選項。

I'm just curious this time around; I think the guidance test, certainly as -- I think as Charlie indicated in his question, assumes some US -- actually, a reasonable level of execution on the revenue side range of 12% growth.

這一次我只是好奇；我認為指導測試，當然 - 我認為正如查理在他的問題中指出的那樣，假設一些美國 - 實際上，在收入方面的增長范圍為 12% 的合理執行水平。

By I'm wondering, on the earnings side, if you are not giving enough flexibility for potential spending in the Online business, if the Yahoo!

我想知道，在收益方面，如果您沒有為在線業務的潛在支出提供足夠的靈活性，如果雅虎！

transaction were not to come through.

交易無法通過。

Just philosophically, I guess, my question is, how do you think about guidance related to the trend?

就哲學而言，我想，我的問題是，您如何看待與趨勢相關的指導？

It seems like there's a bit of a change here.

這裡似乎有一點變化。

I'm just curious what your thought process there is.

我只是好奇你的思維過程是什麼。

Sure.

當然。

There's a few trends you've referred to there, so I'd like to try and take them in turn.

您在那裡提到了一些趨勢，所以我想依次嘗試。

From a revenue point of view, as I mentioned to Charlie, I feel very good about our revenue forecast, 11% to 13% for next year.

從收入的角度來看，正如我向查理提到的那樣，我對我們的收入預測感到非常好，明年的收入預測為 11% 至 13%。

I think that's very good in the current economic environment.

我認為這在當前的經濟環境下非常好。

And as I see it, I think that is a testament to the strength of our particular investment model, business model, and also the fact that we have made a lot of investments in the past.

在我看來，我認為這證明了我們特定的投資模式、商業模式的實力，以及我們過去進行了大量投資的事實。

We have talked to investors about the benefits of those investments and I think that is starting to pay.

我們已經與投資者討論了這些投資的好處，我認為這已經開始奏效了。

Clearly, in this year, we've driven revenue by over 16%, and next year 11% to 13% feels very good.

很明顯，今年我們的收入增長了 16% 以上，明年 11% 到 13% 感覺非常好。

So I feel good on the revenue side.

所以我在收入方面感覺很好。

On the operating expense side, I think we're making, at this stage, plenty of provision for what I consider to be appropriate OpEx, not just in the Online Services but across the whole business.

在運營費用方面，我認為在這個階段，我們正在為我認為合適的運營支出做出大量準備，不僅在在線服務中，而且在整個業務中。

So I don't feel bad that we are leaving anything out there.

所以我不覺得我們留下任何東西在那裡。

Clearly, if we were to make another acquisition or to acquire Yahoo!, that does change the game.

顯然，如果我們要進行另一次收購或收購雅虎，那確實會改變遊戲規則。

But, in terms of allowing us to do what we want to do organically and through some level of acquisition, not only in Online Services but in other businesses, I feel good about the level that we have built in at this stage.

但是，就允許我們有機地做我們想做的事情和通過某種程度的收購而言，不僅在在線服務中，而且在其他業務中，我對我們現階段所建立的水平感到滿意。

And overall earnings per share are growing 14% to 15% -- there's some assumptions there about buybacks and investment income.

每股總收益增長了 14% 到 15%——那裡有一些關於回購和投資收入的假設。

I mentioned the tax rate is starting to come down, and I've talked about this, at the last couple of financial analyst meetings, that we're now in a period where you can expect to see our tax rate start to go down year after year, not only fiscal year '09 but in fiscal year '10 as well, as a result of the changes in our business model.

我提到稅率開始下降，我在最近幾次金融分析師會議上談到了這一點，我們現在正處於一個可以預期我們的稅率開始下降的時期一年之後，不僅是 09 財年，而且在 10 財年也是如此，這是我們業務模式變化的結果。

So if you look at the individual parts of guidance for fiscal year '09, at this stage I feel they are hanging together very well.

因此，如果您查看 09 財年指導的各個部分，在這個階段，我覺得它們很好地結合在一起。

And also, the bookings growth rate coming in at 14% -- do you think, Chris, that is more indicative of what we should expect over the few quarters?

此外，預訂增長率達到 14%——克里斯，你認為這是否更能說明我們在幾個季度內的預期？

Because I think, and right after the product launches, you had 30%, and then it looks like we've seen some deceleration.

因為我認為，在產品發布後，你有 30%，然後看起來我們已經看到了一些減速。

But is this the real run rate going forward, given that we're entering a more mature [aspect of the product segment]?

但是，鑑於我們正在進入一個更成熟的[產品領域]，這是否是未來的實際運行速度？

You would expect, over the long term, bookings growth and overall revenue growth to be broadly the same as each other.

您會預計，從長遠來看，預訂增長和整體收入增長大致相同。

So if we can continue to get bookings growth, excluding Vista unearned impact, but general bookings growth in the mid-teens, that would support low to mid-teens revenue growth.

因此，如果我們能夠繼續獲得預訂增長，不包括 Vista 的意外影響，但總體預訂增長在 10 歲左右，那將支持低至 10 歲左右的收入增長。

If that's a mature part of the cycle, then that's pretty healthy, from my perspective.

如果這是周期的成熟部分，那麼從我的角度來看，這是非常健康的。

John DiFucci, Bear Stearns.

約翰迪福奇，貝爾斯登。

I have a follow-up to Heather's question, and it has to do with anti-piracy efforts.

我對 Heather 的問題進行了跟進，它與反盜版工作有關。

First, the September-December quarters we saw some big benefits from that and actually seemed to take us by surprise and you by surprise.

首先，在 9 月至 12 月的季度，我們從中看到了一些巨大的好處，實際上似乎讓我們感到驚訝，而您也感到驚訝。

This quarter, that looks to have reversed.

本季度，這種情況似乎發生了逆轉。

Chris, you mentioned, I guess, government crackdowns, and we had heard some of those in the second half of last year.

克里斯，我猜你提到了政府的鎮壓，我們在去年下半年聽到了其中的一些。

Is there any other color you can give us on that because trying to understand this, and obviously it's going to be a fight as you move along.

有沒有其他的顏色你可以給我們，因為試圖理解這一點，很明顯，隨著你的前進，這將是一場戰鬥。

But if it's always going to be, you get a foot and you give up a yard kind of thing, just trying to figure out what you see in Asia this quarter, and why would it reverse?

但如果它總是這樣，你一腳就放棄了一碼之類的東西，只是想弄清楚你在本季度在亞洲看到了什麼，為什麼它會逆轉？

Secondly, on that, I'm just curious why you expect an acceleration of PC growth into the next quarter, especially given the macroeconomic backdrop?

其次，關於這一點，我只是好奇為什麼您預計 PC 增長將加速到下個季度，尤其是在宏觀經濟背景下？

Well, on piracy, or more particularly unlicensed shipments, which to a large extent become pirated, you are true that on a quarter-by-quarter basis it can move around quite a lot.

好吧，在盜版，或者更特別是未經許可的貨物，在很大程度上變成了盜版，你是真的，在一個季度一個季度的基礎上，它可以移動很多。

Hopefully you recall and particularly in the first quarter that I said don't take too much from this positive number.

希望你記得，特別是在第一季度，我說過不要從這個正數中拿走太多。

You can get an aberration like this on a quarterly basis, and you could have a negative one, by implication.

您可能每季度都會遇到這樣的異常，並且暗示您可能會遇到負面的異常。

That's what we've seen this quarter.

這就是我們本季度所看到的。

So again, I just reinforce, you really need to look at things like piracy on a long-term basis and average them out to really get a sense of how it's happening.

所以，我再次強調，你真的需要從長遠的角度看待盜版等問題，並將它們平均下來，才能真正了解它是如何發生的。

In the first quarter, in particular, we saw a very strong performance in our Russian subsidiary, which helped enormously when you spread that volume over the total business.

特別是在第一季度，我們在俄羅斯子公司看到了非常強勁的表現，當你將這一數量分散到整個業務中時，這有很大幫助。

In this quarter, in China, because of some specific market dynamics that happened in that country, you saw a relatively negative performance.

在本季度，在中國，由於該國發生的一些特定市場動態，您看到了相對負面的表現。

You've got to wash those things out, you've got to look at it on the course of the year.

你必須把這些東西洗掉，你必須在這一年裡看看它。

We still think, for the year, we're going to have PC unit growth of 11% to 13%.

我們仍然認為，今年我們的 PC 單位增長率將達到 11% 到 13%。

We think we're going to ship our units of 12% to 14%.

我們認為我們將運送 12% 到 14% 的單位。

So we still think we are going to pick up 1%, maybe 2%, of shipment growth relative to overall market growth and that washes out the unders and overs, and that's how I prefer to think about it.

因此，我們仍然認為相對於整體市場增長，我們將獲得 1% 甚至 2% 的出貨量增長，這會沖刷掉劣勢和劣勢，這就是我更願意考慮的方式。

Just to put that into a little more context, too, on the unlicensed PCs aspect, John, just keep in mind that when we were looking at the PC units to OEM units, that was one of three factors that we talked you through in bridging that.

只是為了更詳細地說明這一點，在未經許可的個人電腦方面，約翰，請記住，當我們從個人電腦單元到 OEM 單元時，這是我們在橋接過程中與您討論的三個因素之一那。

So that is one of three factors.

所以這是三個因素之一。

In terms of overall PC demand, what I would say is we started the year believing that we were going to have about 9% to 11% in terms of unit shipments.

就整體 PC 需求而言，我想說的是，我們在今年開始時認為，就單位出貨量而言，我們將擁有約 9% 至 11% 的份額。

The third quarter came in at 8% to 10%.

第三季度為 8% 至 10%。

So broadly speaking, it was in line with where we started the year.

所以從廣義上講，這與我們今年開始的地方是一致的。

It was a little bit weaker in mature markets, which I think picks up some of the economic issues that we're seeing, and particularly in the US, but it was stronger in emerging markets.

成熟市場的情況稍弱，我認為這反映了我們所看到的一些經濟問題，尤其是在美國，但在新興市場則更為強勁。

So the mix was different to what we thought, but the overall market was about in line, 1% lower, which is a rounding error, really, to where we started the year.

因此，組合與我們的想法不同，但整體市場大致一致，下降了 1%，這實際上是我們年初時的四捨五入誤差。

What we saw a really was a particularly strong performance in Q1 and Q2.

我們看到的是第一季度和第二季度特別強勁的表現。

So it's difficult to continue to extrapolate an outperformance.

因此，很難繼續推斷出優異的表現。

8% to 10% I don't feel bad about, and if we can end the year at 11% to 13%, which is how we feel relative to a starting point of 9% to 11%, we still feel that's a good, robust year.

8% 到 10% 我並不感到難過，如果我們能以 11% 到 13% 結束這一年，這就是我們相對於 9% 到 11% 的起點的感覺，我們仍然覺得這很好，強勁的一年。

But obviously, on a quarter-by-quarter basis, again, you can read too much into an individual quarter.

但很明顯，在逐個季度的基礎上，你可能對單個季度讀得太多了。

If you look at the year, it looks pretty good.

如果你看年份，它看起來很不錯。

But how could you -- given the macro backdrop, it just seems kind of odd that you would assume that PC sales would increase in this current quarter versus the 8% to 10%.

但是你怎麼能 - 考慮到宏觀背景，你會認為本季度的個人電腦銷量會增加，而不是 8% 到 10%，這似乎有點奇怪。

Well, we're talking about 9% to 11% for the fourth quarter relative to 8% to 10% for the third quarter.

好吧，我們說的是第四季度為 9% 至 11%，而第三季度為 8% 至 10%。

So it's a 1% change.

所以這是1%的變化。

Don't forget the third quarter, this quarter, lapped Vista launch last year.

別忘了第三季度，這個季度，比去年的 Vista 發布還要早。

So you've got some aberrations on a year-over-year basis.

所以你每年都有一些偏差。

But accelerating from 8% to 10% to a 9% to 11% third quarter to fourth quarter doesn't feel like it's -- we haven't got the foot on the accelerator very hard to achieve that.

但是從第三季度到第四季度從 8% 加速到 10% 到 9% 到 11% 感覺並不像 - 我們還沒有踩到加速器來實現這一目標。

Rob Breza, RBC Capital Markets.

Rob Breza，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the integration of aQuantive and I guess where does that sit relative to your estimates and how is that tracking I guess to your plan?

我想知道您是否可以談談 aQuantive 的集成，我猜這與您的估計相比在哪裡，我猜該跟踪對您的計劃有何影響？

Sure.

當然。

There's a number of ways of looking at how it's integrating.

有很多方法可以查看它是如何集成的。

The first and most important is from an employee integration point of view, given that the real revenue potential is some years out.

第一個也是最重要的是從員工整合的角度來看，因為真正的收入潛力還需要幾年時間。

From an employee point of view we couldn't have been happier.

從員工的角度來看，我們再高興不過了。

All of the key executives have remained.

所有主要高管都留了下來。

Brian McAndrews is doing a great job leading that and has taken a broader role inside Microsoft in terms of driving that part of the strategy.

布賴恩·麥克安德魯斯在領導這方面做得很好，並且在推動這部分戰略方面在微軟內部發揮了更廣泛的作用。

We've integrated, in my view, the cultures very well, and we have got people from aQuantive taking a broader role in Microsoft, people from the previous Microsoft working inside and helping drive aQuantive strategy, and they are very active in thinking about the way in which they can not only built aQuantive as it was but use the financial and other resources of Microsoft to make aQuantive go faster.

在我看來，我們已經很好地整合了文化，我們讓 aQuantive 的人在微軟擔任更廣泛的角色，來自以前的微軟的人在內部工作並幫助推動 aQuantive 戰略，他們非常積極地思考他們不僅可以按原樣構建 aQuantive，還可以利用微軟的財務和其他資源使 aQuantive 運行得更快。

So if you take that as a first determiner of how well things have gone, I'm extremely happy with that.

因此，如果您將其作為判斷事情進展情況的首要因素，我對此感到非常高興。

In terms of the underlying business, leading indicator would be just number of publishers we are getting onboard.

就基礎業務而言，領先指標只是我們加入的出版商數量。

Again, that's going very healthy.

同樣，這非常健康。

We pulled through the quarter.

我們度過了這個季度。

I think we've made a few announcements.

我想我們已經發布了一些公告。

There's 96, I believe, new publishers of various sizes, have switched onto the Atlas Publisher Suite in the last quarter.

我相信有 96 家不同規模的新出版商在上個季度切換到 Atlas Publisher Suite。

Since we announced.

自從我們宣布。

Actually, since we announced, sorry.

其實，既然我們宣布了，對不起。

So very good growth in the underlying dynamic of the business.

因此，業務的潛在動力增長非常好。

From a profitability point of view we're carrying the costs of the acquisition but we're managing to achieve the results that we talked about, despite the fact that, at this stage, it's early days for aQuantive when we're carrying, in particular, some of the non-cash charges associated with the acquisition.

從盈利能力的角度來看，我們承擔了收購的成本，但我們正在設法實現我們談到的結果，儘管事實上，在現階段，aQuantive 在我們承擔的時候還處於早期階段特別是與收購相關的一些非現金費用。

So the revenue growth is still ahead of us.

因此，收入增長仍然領先於我們。

From a cost point of view, we're in line, but it's a negative.

從成本的角度來看，我們是一致的，但這是負面的。

From a publisher business point of view, good early indicators and, from a people point of view, it's excellent.

從出版商業務的角度來看，良好的早期指標，從人們的角度來看，它非常好。

Kirk Materne, Banc of America Securities.

Kirk Materne，美國銀行證券公司。

Chris, operating margins for the fourth quarter appear to be going down just a tad versus the third fiscal quarter.

克里斯，與第三財季相比，第四季度的營業利潤率似乎略有下降。

Could you just explain some of the dynamics around that?

你能解釋一下這方面的一些動態嗎？

I realize you guys have just made some acquisitions.

我知道你們剛剛進行了一些收購。

Is it mainly headcount related?

主要與人數有關嗎？

Is there some mix shift going on between the businesses?

企業之間是否發生了一些混合轉變？

Anything to do with E&D?

和E&D有關係嗎？

Obviously, it's going to have a strong quarter with Grand Theft Auto.

顯然，俠盜獵車手將有一個強勁的季度。

I'm just trying to get the dynamics about that.

我只是想了解這方面的動態。

The problem looking at margins for the business overall is you inevitably get quite a lot of difference between the individual businesses and how they make up one quarter.

考慮整體業務利潤率的問題是，您不可避免地會在各個業務之間以及它們如何構成四分之一之間存在很大差異。

So that's the first statement, and it's best, again, to look at the year overall.

所以這是第一個聲明，最好還是從整體上看一下這一年。

We're looking at margin expansion, but if you look at the trends through the quarters, I think quarter one was 43%, quarter two was 39.6%, quarter three was 40.3%, quarter four was 37.6%, overall 40%.

我們正在關注利潤率擴張，但如果您查看各個季度的趨勢，我認為第一季度為 43%，第二季度為 39.6%，第三季度為 40.3%，第四季度為 37.6%，總體為 40%。

So in any one quarter, you can get quite different movements, and that reflects, A, the mix of businesses; and, B, if you have a strong Xbox quarter you get a lot of the COGS associated with that.

所以在任何一個季度，你都可以得到完全不同的走勢，這反映了，A，業務組合；而且，B，如果你有一個強大的 Xbox 季度，你會得到很多與之相關的 COGS。

That tends to decrease the margins.

這往往會降低利潤率。

Fourth quarter, we get a lot of marketing and sign-up costs associated with our enterprise businesses, which generally are buying annuities.

第四季度，我們獲得了大量與企業業務相關的營銷和註冊成本，這些業務通常是購買年金。

So we don't get a lot of the revenue associated with it.

所以我們沒有得到很多與之相關的收入。

We get some of the cost, but then we get the benefits of that revenue flying through for the next year.

我們得到了一些成本，但隨後我們從明年的收入中獲益。

So the short answer to your question is, there is nothing unusual in the fourth quarter.

所以你的問題的簡短回答是，第四季度沒有什麼不尋常的。

We typically see it as -- we typically see it, if you look back on previous years, it's a low-margin quarter relative to the first, second and third.

我們通常認為它 - 我們通常認為它，如果你回顧往年，相對於第一、第二和第三季度，這是一個低利潤率的季度。

There's nothing unusual about this fourth quarter; it's part of the normal cycle.

這個第四季度沒有什麼不尋常的。這是正常週期的一部分。

If I could just ask a really quick follow-up, actually, to John's question, just on the acceleration in PCs in the fourth quarter.

實際上，如果我能對約翰的問題提出一個非常快速的跟進，那就是第四季度 PC 的加速。

One of the comments you had about last quarter was just the inventory levels being a little bit higher heading into the third quarter.

您對上個季度的評論之一是進入第三季度的庫存水平略高。

I assume those have been drawn down to levels you feel more comfortable with heading into the fourth quarter?

我認為這些已經下降到您對進入第四季度感到更舒服的水平？

Yes, although just to be clear, I think John's question was PC units overall, and inventory levels tends to be a comment about our shipments to OEMs.

是的，儘管為了清楚起見，我認為約翰的問題是整體 PC 單位，而庫存水平往往是對我們向 OEM 發貨的評論。

So those are very tightly related to each other, clearly.

因此，很明顯，它們之間的關係非常密切。

But in answer to your question, yes, inventory levels are more normal.

但在回答你的問題時，是的，庫存水平更正常。

Although I will say, it's quite early in the quarter.

雖然我會說，現在這個季度還很早。

Sometimes we get that information over the next few weeks.

有時我們會在接下來的幾週內獲得這些信息。

But there's nothing -- again, there's nothing that we're seeing that's unusual going into this quarter, and that's embedded in our guidance.

但是沒有什麼 - 再說一次，我們在本季度沒有看到任何不尋常的東西，這已經包含在我們的指導中。

We're running out of time, but we do have time for at least one more question, please.

我們的時間不多了，但我們確實有時間至少再回答一個問題，拜託。

Brent Thill, Citigroup.

花旗集團的布倫特希爾。

Chris, just drilling into the Client line item, that was clearly probably the biggest disappointment relative to all of our models in understanding the licensing change.

Chris，剛剛深入研究了 Client 行項目，這顯然可能是相對於我們所有模型在理解許可變更方面最大的失望。

But when you drill into what's happening with Vista and XP, are you still happy with what you're seeing in the Vista upgrade cycle?

但是，當您深入了解 Vista 和 XP 發生的情況時，您是否仍然對在 Vista 升級週期中看到的內容感到滿意？

Are you still seeing more units of Vista -- or, sorry -- XP going than you would like?

您是否仍然看到比您想要的更多的 Vista 單元——或者，對不起——XP？

And that would obviously have an impact on the pricing.

這顯然會對定價產生影響。

With respect to the quarter, the third quarter in particular, there's really no Vista-related issues at all.

就季度而言，尤其是第三季度，根本沒有Vista相關的問題。

In terms of the impacts, firstly, the overall PC market, unlicensed PCs, which is not a Vista issue; emerging markets growing faster than mature markets, that's not really a Vista issue; a bit of channel shift to larger OEMs, again, not a Vista issue.

從影響上看，首先是整個PC市場，非授權PC，這不是Vista的問題；新興市場的增長速度快於成熟市場，這並不是 Vista 的問題；再次向更大的 OEM 轉移一點渠道，這不是 Vista 問題。

Obviously, if we sell a unit of XP relative to selling a unit of Vista, we still are relatively happy because of the realization.

很顯然，如果我們賣出一台 XP 相對於賣出一台 Vista 來說，我們還是比較高興的，因為實現了。

So there's nothing in the third quarter that is specific to Vista in terms of the walk-through from the overall PC market down to overall Client revenue.

因此，在從整體 PC 市場到整體客戶收入的演練方面，第三季度沒有什麼特別針對 Vista 的。

I guess the only Vista impact really is the launch last year and the very strong comparables that we have.

我想唯一的 Vista 影響確實是去年的發布和我們擁有的非常強大的可比性。

But that's not really a comment about this quarter, it's more a comment on the year-ago quarter and the comparable.

但這並不是對本季度的真正評論，更多的是對去年同期和可比季度的評論。

I think if you look at whether it's Vista rev rec or from a mix standpoint, we can let you know we are up a bit sequentially in terms of Vista mix, shared with you the 140 million licenses sold.

我認為，如果您看看是 Vista rev rec 還是從混合的角度來看，我們可以讓您知道我們在 Vista 混合方面的順序有所上升，與您分享了已售出的 1.4 億個許可證。

So I think things are tracking well, and as expected, from our perspective.

因此，從我們的角度來看，我認為事情進展順利，正如預期的那樣。

So with that, thank you all.

所以，謝謝大家。

I'll hand it back to Colleen to finish, but look forward to talking to a number of you in three months and, in particular, seeing a number of you at the financial analyst meeting a few days later.

我將把它交給科琳完成，但期待在三個月內與你們中的一些人交談，特別是在幾天后的金融分析師會議上見到你們中的一些人。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you and thanks, everyone, for your participation in today's call.

謝謝大家，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

If you have any further questions, please feel free to call me or my team directly.

如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時直接致電我或我的團隊。

As I mentioned at the beginning of this call, this conference call will be available on replay at our investor relations web site through close of business April 24, 2009.

正如我在本次電話會議開始時提到的，本次電話會議將在 2009 年 4 月 24 日營業結束前在我們的投資者關係網站上重播。

In addition, you can hear the replay by dialing 1-800-756-0715 or, for international callers, dial 203-369-3427.

此外，您可以撥打 1-800-756-0715 收聽重播，對於國際呼叫者，請撥打 203-369-3427。

The dial-in replay will be available through the close of business May 2, 2008.

撥入重播將在 2008 年 5 月 2 日營業結束前提供。

Thanks again for joining us today.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。