微軟 (MSFT) 2008 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Microsoft first quarter earnings conference call. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). Today's call is being recorded, and if you have any objections you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Colleen Healy, General Manager Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

歡迎參加微軟第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。今天的電話正在錄音中，如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係總經理 Colleen Healy。女士，您可以開始了。

Good afternoon everyone. Thanks so much for joining us today. This afternoon I'm joined by Chris Liddell, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Frank Brod, Corporate Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and John Seethoff, Deputy General Counsel.

大家下午好。非常感謝您今天加入我們。今天下午，高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Chris Liddell 加入了我的行列； Frank Brod，公司副總裁兼首席會計官；和副總法律顧問 John Seethoff。

Today's call will start with Chris providing some key takeaways for the first quarter of fiscal year 2008 and an overview of expectations for the rest of the fiscal year. I will then provide details around our first quarter results, and then turn it back to Chris for a more detailed discussion of our guidance for the full year and second quarter of fiscal 2008. After that we will take your questions.

今天的電話會議將首先由 Chris 提供 2008 財年第一季度的一些關鍵要點以及對本財年剩餘時間的預期概述。然後，我將提供有關我們第一季度業績的詳細信息，然後將其轉回給克里斯，以更詳細地討論我們對 2008 財年全年和第二季度的指導。之後，我們將回答您的問題。

We filed our 10-Q today in conjunction with our earnings release; therefore, you have available the earnings release, MD&A, financial statements and footnotes. We have also posted our quarterly financial summary slide deck, which is intended to follow the flow of our prepared remarks in order to assist you. This slide deck offers highlights from the quarter, outlines our guidance and provides a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will talk about today. You can find the earnings release, the financial highlights, and the quarterly financial summary slide deck on the Investor Relations website at www.microsoft.com/msft.

我們今天在發布財報的同時提交了 10-Q；因此，您可以獲得收益發布、MD&A、財務報表和腳註。我們還發布了我們的季度財務摘要幻燈片，旨在按照我們準備好的評論流程為您提供幫助。該幻燈片提供了本季度的亮點，概述了我們的指導，並提供了我們今天將要討論的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間的差異的協調。您可以在投資者關係網站 www.microsoft.com/msft 上找到收益發布、財務摘要和季度財務摘要幻燈片。

Today's call will be recorded. Please be aware that if you decide to ask a question it will be included in both our live transmission, as well as any future use of the recording. As always, shareholders and analysts can listen to a live webcast of today's call at the Microsoft Investor Relations website. A replay of the call will be available at this same site through the close of business on October 25, 2008.

今天的通話將被錄音。請注意，如果您決定提出問題，它將包含在我們的實時傳輸以及將來對錄音的任何使用中。與往常一樣，股東和分析師可以在微軟投資者關係網站上收聽今天電話會議的網絡直播。到 2008 年 10 月 25 日營業結束時，將在同一地點重播電話會議。

This conference call report is protected by copyright law and international treaty. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of this report, or any portion of it, may result in civil and criminal penalties. Any recording or other uses of the transmission of the text or audio of today's call is not allowed without express permission of Microsoft.

本電話會議報告受版權法和國際條約保護。未經授權複製或分發本報告或其任何部分可能會導致民事和刑事處罰。未經 Microsoft 明確許可，不得對今天通話的文本或音頻進行任何錄音或其他用途的傳輸。

We will be making statements during this call that are forward-looking. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, and the comments made during this conference call, and in the Risk Factors section of our 10-Q, our 2007 Form 10-K, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.

我們將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性聲明。這些陳述基於當前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。由於今天的收益新聞稿中討論的因素、本次電話會議期間的評論以及我們的 10-Q、2007 年 10-K 表格的風險因素部分以及其他報告和文件，實際結果可能存在重大差異。證券交易委員會。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, let me turn it over to Chris.

有了這個，讓我把它交給克里斯。

Good afternoon everyone and thanks for joining us. I will start today's call with highlights from our first quarter performance and how we see the rest of fiscal 2008 shaping up.

大家下午好，感謝您加入我們。我將在今天的電話會議開始時介紹我們第一季度業績的亮點以及我們如何看待 2008 財年剩餘時間的發展。

The first quarter represented an outstanding start to the fiscal year, with every part of the Company performing at or above expectations. In particular, we're very happy that consumer demand across our total product range propelled revenue, operating income and earnings per share growth by 27%, 32% and 29%, respectively.

第一季度是本財年的一個出色開端，公司各部門的表現均達到或超過預期。特別是，我們很高興消費者對我們整個產品系列的需求推動收入、營業收入和每股收益分別增長了 27%、32% 和 29%。

Also we successfully closed aQuantive, and a number of smaller acquisitions. And we continued setting the platform for future growth with the availability of products and services, such as an updated Live Search, BizTalk Server, Silverlight, PerformancePoint Server, Halo 3, and Office Communications Server.

我們還成功地完成了 aQuantive 和一些較小的收購。我們繼續利用產品和服務的可用性為未來增長搭建平台，例如更新的 Live Search、BizTalk Server、Silverlight、PerformancePoint Server、Halo 3 和 Office Communications Server。

In terms of our financial performance there are some key trends that I would like to highlight. On the revenue side, the benefits of our multiyear product cycle are obvious. Q1 was our fastest-growing first quarter in seven years, with revenue up 27%, or $3 billion over Q1 of last year. The performance was across all divisions, customer segments, channels and geographies.

就我們的財務業績而言，我想強調一些關鍵趨勢。在收入方面，我們多年產品週期的好處是顯而易見的。第一季度是我們七年來增長最快的第一季度，收入增長 27%，比去年第一季度增長 30 億美元。業績遍及所有部門、客戶群、渠道和地區。

Looking specifically at the growth coming from our various geographies, emerging markets continue to be a strength. The nations that make up the G7 grew 29% for the quarter, but even better was the over 40% increase turned in by the combined group of Brazil, Russia, India and China. A quarter like this demonstrates how enlarging our geographic presence has positioned us to benefit from the continued worldwide economic expansion.

具體來看來自我們各個地區的增長，新興市場仍然是一個優勢。組成 G7 的國家在本季度增長了 29%，但更好的是巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國合併後的 40% 以上的增長。像這樣的四分之一展示了我們的地域分佈如何使我們能夠從持續的全球經濟擴張中受益。

We also did a good job this quarter of converting revenue growth into profit growth. Operating income grew 5 percentage points faster than revenue, expanding our operating margin from 41% to 43%. Solid marketing and sales execution, combined with efficiency on operating expenses, kept costs in line with expectations.

我們本季度在將收入增長轉化為利潤增長方面也做得很好。營業收入比收入增長快 5 個百分點，使我們的營業利潤率從 41% 擴大到 43%。穩健的營銷和銷售執行，加上運營費用的效率，使成本符合預期。

Earnings per share was up 29% over last year to $0.45, assisted by our ongoing share buyback program. Given the start in the first quarter, the acquisition of aQuantive, and an improved outlook, we are increasing our revenue, operating income and earnings per share guidance for the year. We now expect revenue growth of 15% to 17% and this will put the top end of our revenue approaching nearly $60 billion, representing a $2 billion increase over our guidance in July. We are also increasing our operating income and earnings per share guidance, the latter to a range of $1.78 to $1.81, $0.08 to $0.09 higher than our previous Outlook.

在我們正在進行的股票回購計劃的幫助下，每股收益比去年增長了 29% 至 0.45 美元。鑑於第一季度的開始、對 aQuantive 的收購以及前景的改善，我們正在增加我們今年的收入、營業收入和每股收益指導。我們現在預計收入增長 15% 至 17%，這將使我們的最高收入接近 600 億美元，比我們 7 月份的指導增加 20 億美元。我們還增加了我們的營業收入和每股收益指引，後者的範圍為 1.78 美元至 1.81 美元，比我們之前的展望高 0.08 美元至 0.09 美元。

With those high-level themes for the quarter and 2008, I'm going to turn the call over to Colleen now for more details on how we closed out the first quarter.

對於本季度和 2008 年的這些高級主題，我現在將把電話轉給科琳，以了解有關我們如何結束第一季度的更多詳細信息。

As Chris mentioned, we're off to the fastest start for revenue and operating income growth of any recent fiscal year. Let me provide you with details of our financial performance, starting with revenue. I will discuss topline financial and business momentum points, and then follow up with revenue performance for each of the business units. Then I will review the rest of the income statement. All growth comparisons relate to the comparable quarter of last year, unless otherwise specified.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們的收入和營業收入增長是最近一個財政年度中最快的。讓我為您提供我們財務業績的詳細信息，從收入開始。我將討論主要財務和業務動力點，然後跟進每個業務部門的收入表現。然後我將審查損益表的其餘部分。除非另有說明，否則所有增長比較均與去年可比季度有關。

Revenue increased 27% to $13.8 billion, significantly exceeding our expectations by over $1 billion. Every business grew at double-digit rates, with particular strength in Client, the Business Division, and Server and Tools, which grew in excess of 20% combined, as well as growth of over 90% by our Entertainment and Devices Division.

收入增長 27% 至 138 億美元，大大超出我們的預期超過 10 億美元。每項業務都以兩位數的速度增長，尤其是在客戶端、業務部門以及服務器和工具方面的增長超過 20%，而我們的娛樂和設備部門增長超過 90%。

The underlying PC hardware market was strong, with estimated growth of 14% to 16% during the quarter, about 3 points higher than our expectations. From a customer segment standpoint, the business PC shipment growth rate increased almost three times to over 12%, while continuing to be outpaced by the Consumer segment.

基礎 PC 硬件市場強勁，本季度預計增長 14% 至 16%，比我們的預期高出約 3 個百分點。從客戶群的角度來看，商用 PC 出貨量增長率幾乎增長了 3 倍，達到 12% 以上，同時繼續被消費者部門超越。

From the geographical point of view, PC growth rates in emerging markets continued to outpace that of mature markets, driven by robust growth in Brazil, Russia, India and China, which grew a combined 20%.

從地域來看，在巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國的強勁增長推動下，新興市場的個人電腦增長率繼續超過成熟市場，這些國家合計增長了 20%。

Europe and Canada led the mature markets, while we began to see recovery in the U.S. and Japan.

歐洲和加拿大引領成熟市場，而美國和日本開始出現復甦。

Our mix of product billings for the quarter was approximately 35% from OEMs, 25% from multiyear agreements, 20% from license-only sales, and the balance from our other businesses. Non-annuity sales were particularly robust, which is consistent with the post-product-launch stage for Windows Vista and the 2007 Office System. Strong annuity licensing performance with Enterprise Agreement renewal rates consistent with historical trends drove our unearned revenue balance 15% higher to $11.6 billion.

我們本季度的產品賬單組合約為 35% 來自 OEM，25% 來自多年協議，20% 來自僅許可銷售，其餘來自我們的其他業務。非年金銷售特別強勁，這與 Windows Vista 和 2007 Office System 的產品發布後階段一致。與歷史趨勢一致的企業協議續訂率強勁的年金許可業績推動我們的未實現收入餘額增長 15% 至 116 億美元。

Our contracted not built balance increased sequentially to over $11 billion. When taken together with reported revenue, total bookings for the Company grew an impressive over 30%.

我們的合同未建餘額依次增加至超過 110 億美元。加上報告的收入，公司的總預訂量增長了 30% 以上，令人印象深刻。

I will close out the revenue overview by adding that changes in foreign exchange rates added about 2 percentage points to our overall revenue growth, and was slightly above our forecast heading into the quarter. Now I will provide revenue highlights by business segment, starting with Client.

我將通過補充說外匯匯率的變化為我們的整體收入增長增加了約 2 個百分點來結束收入概覽，並且略高於我們進入本季度的預測。現在我將按業務部門提供收入亮點，從客戶開始。

As Windows Vista became available for consumers, Client revenue has grown over 20% on average. This quarter a rapidly expanding personal computer market, progress against software piracy, and three quarters of Windows customers adopting premium versions, drove Client revenue to $4.1 billion, an increase of 25%.

隨著 Windows Vista 面向消費者推出，客戶收入平均增長了 20% 以上。本季度快速擴張的個人電腦市場、打擊軟件盜版的進展以及四分之三的 Windows 客戶採用高級版本，推動客戶收入達到 41 億美元，增長 25%。

OEM revenue, which makes up over 80% of Client revenue grew 25%. After adjusting for 3 points of revenue recognition from deferred revenue, OEM revenue increased slightly faster than OEM unit shipments of 20% due to a higher mix of premium Windows SKUs.

佔客戶收入 80% 以上的 OEM 收入增長了 25%。在調整遞延收入的 3 個收入確認點後，由於高級 Windows SKU 的組合更高，OEM 收入的增長略快於 20% 的 OEM 單位出貨量。

Consumer premium units grew over 150%, while business premium units grew closer to 11%. As a result, the OEM premium mix increased by 16 points to 75%, driven by a 19 point increase in the Consumer element of premium mix, and partially offset by a 3 point decline in the business element. Because business premium SKUs have a 5 to 1 pricing impact over consumer premium SKUs, these changes in the premium mix have largely offsetting impact to revenue.

消費者高端單位增長超過 150%，而商業高端單位增長接近 11%。因此，在高端組合的消費者元素增加 19 個百分點的推動下，OEM 高端組合增長了 16 個百分點，達到 75%，並被業務元素下降 3 個百分點所部分抵消。由於商業溢價 SKU 對消費者溢價 SKU 的定價影響為 5 比 1，因此溢價組合的這些變化在很大程度上抵消了對收入的影響。

Client commercial and retail licensing, which makes up about 20% of Client revenue, increased 23% as business customers continue to add Client products to their annuity agreements. During the quarter we saw a 27% increase in the Client volume licensing portion of the unearned revenue balance. We view this to be a positive leading indicator of intent by businesses to deploy Windows Vista.

隨著商業客戶繼續將客戶產品添加到他們的年金協議中，佔客戶收入約 20% 的客戶商業和零售許可增長了 23%。在本季度，我們看到未實現收入餘額中的客戶批量許可部分增加了 27%。我們認為這是企業部署 Windows Vista 的積極領先指標。

Server and Tools revenue increased 16% to $2.9 billion, driven by strong annuity license growth in Windows Server and SQL Server, which we're happy to see ahead of the upcoming new releases. More specifically, we saw healthy unit growth in our Windows Server business, particularly in our premium Enterprise Edition SKU, which grew by over 35%. And SQL Server unit and revenue growth each exceeded 15%.

服務器和工具收入增長 16% 至 29 億美元，這得益於 Windows Server 和 SQL Server 年金許可證的強勁增長，我們很高興在即將發布的新版本之前看到這一點。更具體地說，我們在 Windows Server 業務中看到了健康的單位增長，特別是在我們的高級企業版 SKU 中，增長了 35% 以上。而 SQL Server 的單位和收入增長均超過 15%。

During the quarter we released Silverlight, a Windows Home Server. We also gained significant product development momentum with beta releases of Visual Studio and SQL Server. Since the availability of the initial release candidate of Windows Server about a month ago, it has been downloaded over 1 million times, indicating high interest in the coming final product.

在本季度，我們發布了 Silverlight，一個 Windows Home Server。我們還通過 Visual Studio 和 SQL Server 的 beta 版本獲得了顯著的產品開發動力。自從大約一個月前 Windows Server 的初始候選版本發布以來，它的下載量已超過 100 萬次，這表明人們對即將推出的最終產品產生了濃厚的興趣。

Our consulting revenue increased 32%, as we have experienced higher utilization rates following the recent business product launches across the Company.

我們的諮詢收入增長了 32%，因為我們在公司最近推出的商業產品之後經歷了更高的利用率。

Online Services Business revenue grew 25% to $671 million, including $80 million for the half quarter of aQuantive revenues since close. Excluding aQuantive, consistent with the way we guided you back in July, growth was in line with our expectations. Online advertising growth for the quarter grew 33%, or 25% before aQuantive.

在線服務業務收入增長 25% 至 6.71 億美元，其中包括自收盤以來 aQuantive 半季度收入的 8000 萬美元。不包括 aQuantive，與我們在 7 月份引導您的方式一致，增長符合我們的預期。本季度在線廣告增長 33%，比 aQuantive 增長 25%。

Microsoft Business Division revenue grew 20% to $4.1 billion. As a result of our focus on delivering greater desktop value to business customers we achieved double-digit revenue growth across a broad range of products within our Office System, Unified Communications, and Business Solution areas.

微軟業務部門收入增長 20% 至 41 億美元。由於我們專注於為企業客戶提供更大的桌面價值，我們在辦公系統、統一通信和業務解決方案領域的廣泛產品中實現了兩位數的收入增長。

Looking at how the various customer segments performed, revenue from business customers jumped 25% over the prior year. We benefited from strong midmarket transactional sales and good Enterprise demand for business productivity infrastructure, such as SharePoint and Enterprise CAL.

從不同客戶群的表現來看，來自商業客戶的收入比去年增長了 25%。我們受益於強勁的中型市場交易銷售和企業對業務生產力基礎設施（如 SharePoint 和 Enterprise CAL）的良好需求。

Healthy sales through retailers for the back-to-school season helped drive consumer growth in the quarter.

返校季零售商的健康銷售有助於推動本季度的消費者增長。

Entertainment and Devices revenue grew over 90% to $1.9 billion, driven by higher than expected console sales and Halo 3, which achieved the biggest entertainment launch date in history. The strong demand for Halo 3 generated approximately $330 million of Microsoft revenue in the quarter, as well as significant consumer interest for the Xbox 360 console.

娛樂和設備收入增長超過 90% 至 19 億美元，這得益於高於預期的遊戲機銷量和 Halo 3，後者實現了歷史上最大的娛樂發布日期。對 Halo 3 的強勁需求在本季度為微軟帶來了約 3.3 億美元的收入，以及消費者對 Xbox 360 遊戲機的極大興趣。

Xbox 360 console units increased over 90%, with over 1.8 million units sold. This is driven by our August price cut, excitement around Halo 3 generating console demand, and an earlier ramp up to the holiday season in anticipation of the most compelling lineup of game titles available on any platform.

Xbox 360 主機銷量增長超過 90%，售出超過 180 萬台。這是由於我們 8 月份的降價、圍繞 Halo 3 產生的主機需求的興奮，以及提前進入假日季節以期待任何平台上最引人注目的遊戲陣容。

In addition to the success of Halo 3, Xbox 360 continued to lead third-party game sales against all current generation platforms, which is not only good for us and our gaming audience, but also good for our game developer partners and the Xbox ecosystem.

除了 Halo 3 的成功之外，Xbox 360 繼續領先於當前所有平台的第三方遊戲銷售，這不僅對我們和我們的遊戲觀眾有好處，而且對我們的遊戲開發商合作夥伴和 Xbox 生態系統也有好處。

For example, according to NPD for the U.S., all four of the current generation third-party titles in the top 10 last month were for the Xbox 360. In fact, over the last year game developers have seen their titles hit the top ten list 27 times for Xbox 360, compared to only twice for the PS3 and only once for the Wii. This helped Xbox 360 software attach rates remain at record levels for any console at this stage in its lifecycle.

例如，根據美國 NPD 的數據，上個月排名前 10 的當前一代第三方遊戲中的所有四款都是針對 Xbox 360 的。事實上，在過去的一年中，遊戲開發商已經看到他們的遊戲進入了前十名。 Xbox 360 為 27 次，而 PS3 僅為 2 次，Wii 僅為 1 次。這有助於 Xbox 360 軟件附加率在其生命週期的這個階段保持在任何控制台的創紀錄水平。

Now for the rest of the income statement. Cost of revenue increased 3 points to 19% of sales, primarily driven by the high volume of Xbox 360 unit sales, increased consulting business, and expanded Online Services operations. Operating expenses increased 11%, dropping from 43% of sales to 38% of sales. Expense growth was largely aligned to headcount growth, and is tracking to our expectations, despite the higher than expected revenue it generated during the quarter.

現在是損益表的其餘部分。收入成本增加了 3 個百分點，達到銷售額的 19%，這主要是由於 Xbox 360 的大量銷量、諮詢業務的增加和在線服務業務的擴大。營業費用增加了 11%，從占銷售額的 43% 下降到佔銷售額的 38%。儘管本季度產生的收入高於預期，但費用增長與員工人數增長基本一致，並且符合我們的預期。

Operating income grew faster than revenue at 32% to $5.9 billion, exceeding high-end guidance by $750 million and expanding our operating margin by 2 percentage points. Investment income and other totaled $298 million for the quarter. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 31%, 0.5 point higher than we previously guided.

營業收入增長快於收入，達到 32% 至 59 億美元，超出高端指引 7.5 億美元，並將我們的營業利潤率提高了 2 個百分點。本季度的投資收入和其他收入總計 2.98 億美元。我們本季度的有效稅率為 31%，比我們之前的指導高 0.5 個百分點。

Cash flow from operations increased 45% to $5.9 billion. Cash flow from operations outpaced operating income due to collections on the large volume of business closed at the end of the fiscal year.

運營現金流增加 45% 至 59 億美元。由於在本財年末關閉的大量業務的收款，來自運營的現金流量超過了營業收入。

During the quarter we repurchased 81 million shares, or $2.3 billion of Company stock. $2.9 billion settled in the quarter due to the high volume of repurchases at the end of fiscal year 2007. And we paid out $938 million in dividends to shareholders in the quarter.

在本季度，我們回購了 8100 萬股股票，即 23 億美元的公司股票。由於 2007 財年末的大量回購，本季度結算了 29 億美元。我們在本季度向股東支付了 9.38 億美元的股息。

Diluted shares outstanding for the quarter were $9.5 billion, down 5% from the prior year as a result of share repurchases. Earnings per share for the quarter were $0.45.

由於股票回購，本季度的稀釋流通股為 95 億美元，比去年同期下降 5%。本季度每股收益為 0.45 美元。

So in summary, we are extremely pleased with this quarter's performance. Revenue for the fiscal year is off to the fastest start in recent history, fueled by strength across our products launched over the last nine months. Operating expenses came in line with expectations, while generating significantly higher than expected revenue. This resulted in operating income growing faster than revenue at an impressive 30% clip.

總而言之，我們對本季度的表現非常滿意。在過去九個月推出的產品實力強勁的推動下，本財年的收入創下了近期歷史上最快的開端。運營費用符合預期，同時產生顯著高於預期的收入。這導致營業收入的增長速度快於收入，達到了令人印象深刻的 30%。

With that, let me turn it back to Chris, who will provide you with our second quarter guidance and outlook for fiscal 2008.

有了這個，讓我回到克里斯，他將為您提供我們對 2008 財年第二季度的指導和展望。

Before we get into the specific guidance, let me outline some of our key underlying assumptions. First, our fiscal 2008 forecast assumes stable macroeconomic conditions through the remainder of the fiscal year. We remain optimistic about the overall outlook for the IT industry. In mature markets we haven't seen a spillover from problems in other areas of the economy, although clearly the risk of an economic slowdown has increased.

在我們進入具體指導之前，讓我概述一些關鍵的基本假設。首先，我們對 2008 財年的預測假設本財年剩餘時間內宏觀經濟狀況穩定。我們對 IT 行業的整體前景保持樂觀。在成熟市場，我們還沒有看到其他經濟領域問題的溢出效應，儘管經濟放緩的風險顯然有所增加。

Emerging markets in particular appear healthy to us. Not only are we getting the benefits of strong growth offshore, but it is assisted by stronger international currencies. The FX impact alone we believe will add about 1 point to our yearly revenue growth.

新興市場對我們來說尤其健康。我們不僅從海外強勁增長中受益，而且還得益於走強的國際貨幣。我們認為，僅外匯影響就會為我們的年度收入增長增加約 1 個百分點。

Overall, our business is benefiting from our diversification across products, channels, geographies and customer segments.

總體而言，我們的業務受益於我們在產品、渠道、地域和客戶群方面的多元化。

We're increasing our expectation for PC unit growth for fiscal 2008 by 1 percentage point, to 10% to 12% for the year, and 11% to 13% for the second quarter. Growth rates in both the Asia-Pacific and EMEA regions appear to be stronger than we thought coming into the year. We estimate that the growth rates will continue to be higher in the Consumer segment than in the Business segment, and recent regional trends should continue, with growth in emerging markets outpacing that of mature markets.

我們將 2008 財年 PC 單位增長預期提高了 1 個百分點，全年增長 10% 至 12%，第二季度增長 11% 至 13%。亞太地區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的增長率似乎都比我們預期的要強勁。我們估計消費板塊的增長率將繼續高於商業板塊，近期的區域趨勢應該會繼續，新興市場的增長將超過成熟市場。

Now let me go through our detailed guidance. For the full year we expect our revenue to come in between $58.8 billion to $59.7 billion, growing 15% to 17%, up 4 percentage points from our last guidance. Full year forecast now includes revenue from aQuantive, which contributed approximately 1 point of revenue growth. The remaining 3 point increase from July is driven by an improved outlook for our three businesses of Client, the Business Division, and Server and Tools.

現在讓我來看看我們的詳細指導。對於全年，我們預計我們的收入將在 588 億美元至 597 億美元之間，增長 15% 至 17%，比我們上次的指導高 4 個百分點。全年預測現在包括來自 aQuantive 的收入，該收入貢獻了大約 1 個百分點的收入增長。與 7 月相比，其餘 3 個點的增長是由我們的客戶、業務部門以及服務器和工具這三個業務的前景改善推動的。

In the second quarter we expect revenue of $15.6 billion to $16.1 billion, which represents a year-over-year increase of 25% to 28%.

我們預計第二季度的收入為 156 億美元至 161 億美元，同比增長 25% 至 28%。

With that, revenue guidance in our divisions is as follows. For Client we expect full year growth to be 12% to 13% and second quarter growth to be 62% to 64%, or 13% to 14% excluding certain revenue deferrals in the prior year. For full year we expect OEM revenue to grow in line with the PC hardware market.

因此，我們各部門的收入指導如下。對於客戶，我們預計全年增長率為 12% 至 13%，第二季度增長率為 62% 至 64%，或 13% 至 14%，不包括上一年的某些收入遞延。全年我們預計 OEM 收入將隨著 PC 硬件市場的增長而增長。

On the commercial and retail side of the business we expect double-digit growth for the year from continued demand through our volume licensing channels. The Client growth rate benefits by 2 percentage points for the full year and by 4 percentage points in Q2 from recognition of undelivered elements, consistent with our guidance in July in both percentage and absolute dollars.

在業務的商業和零售方面，我們預計通過我們的批量許可渠道的持續需求，今年將實現兩位數的增長。由於未交付元素的確認，全年客戶增長率提高了 2 個百分點，第二季度提高了 4 個百分點，這與我們在 7 月份以百分比和絕對美元計算的指導一致。

Server and Tools revenue should be up 16% to 18% for the year, and 16% to 17% for the second quarter. We expect double-digit growth across our server platform products and services. The division is completing the new releases of Windows Server, SQL Server and Visual Studio in preparation for the upcoming launch of them starting in February. These products will allow IT departments to be more productive by providing them with secure, trusted and scalable and manageable platforms that will underpin growth in the Server and Tools business over the next several years.

服務器和工具收入今年應該增長 16% 到 18%，第二季度增長 16% 到 17%。我們預計我們的服務器平台產品和服務將實現兩位數的增長。該部門正在完成 Windows Server、SQL Server 和 Visual Studio 的新版本，為即將在 2 月開始的發布做準備。這些產品將為 IT 部門提供安全、可信、可擴展和可管理的平台，從而提高他們的生產力，這些平台將支持未來幾年服務器和工具業務的增長。

We forecast revenue in the Online Service business to increase 33% to 37% for the year, and 32% to 35% in Q2. This implies Online advertising growth in excess of 30% for the quarter and for the year. This guidance includes the revenue for aQuantive, which adds approximately 25 points of growth for Q2 and for the full year. Organic revenue guidance for the fiscal year is unchanged for both the business group and advertising.

我們預計今年在線服務業務的收入將增長 33% 至 37%，第二季度將增長 32% 至 35%。這意味著該季度和全年的在線廣告增長超過 30%。該指引包括 aQuantive 的收入，它為第二季度和全年增加了大約 25 個增長點。業務集團和廣告部門的本財年有機收入指引保持不變。

We are aiming to become one of the major players in the Online advertising space, and we are pleased by the progress we're making in putting the building blocks in place. For example, the launch of our new search product with much stronger relevance. Using industry standard measurement methodology our core algorithmic relevance is now on par with the market leader, and better than all other search engines in the U.S. market today.

我們的目標是成為在線廣告領域的主要參與者之一，我們對我們在構建模塊方面所取得的進展感到高興。例如，我們推出了相關性更強的新搜索產品。使用行業標準測量方法，我們的核心算法相關性現在與市場領導者相當，並且優於當今美國市場上的所有其他搜索引擎。

We saw solid growth, 23%, in our Display business. We saw record growth in our Live IDs, growing 19% to over 400 million. Our partnership, which we announced yesterday with Facebook, and the acquisition and the successful integration of aQuantive during the quarter.

我們的顯示業務實現了 23% 的穩健增長。我們的 Live ID 出現了創紀錄的增長，增長了 19%，達到 4 億多。我們昨天宣布與 Facebook 建立合作夥伴關係，以及本季度對 aQuantive 的收購和成功整合。

We will continue to invest in this business, as we have told you before. For example, in building differentiated search experience in the four high-value verticals of commerce, local search and mapping, entertainment and health, which collectively represent 40% of all global searches.

正如我們之前告訴過您的，我們將繼續投資這項業務。例如，在商業、本地搜索和地圖繪製、娛樂和健康這四個高價值垂直領域構建差異化搜索體驗，這些垂直領域合計佔全球搜索總量的 40%。

Microsoft Business Division revenues should be up 14% to 15% for the year, and 31% to 33% in the second quarter. Normalizing for the impact of the technology guarantee and preshipment deferrals in the prior year, the second quarter growth should be 15% to 16%.

微軟業務部門今年的收入應增長 14% 至 15%，第二季度將增長 31% 至 33%。將上年技術保證和裝運前延期的影響正常化，第二季度的增長應該在 15% 到 16% 之間。

Looking at the implied growth rate from the second half, I will remind you that due to last year's strong sales of the 2007 Microsoft Office system, we will have tough comparisons but are expecting double-digit growth nevertheless.

從下半年的隱含增長率來看，我會提醒您，由於去年 Microsoft Office 系統 2007 年的強勁銷售，我們將進行艱難的比較，但仍預計會有兩位數的增長。

2008 is another important product launch year for the Business Division as we roll out offerings in the important investment areas of Business Intelligence and Unified Communications. These two areas are projected to have a combined addressable market size of about $65 billion in 2009, representing sizable growth opportunities for the division.

2008 年對於業務部門來說是另一個重要的產品發布年，因為我們在商業智能和統一通信的重要投資領域推出了產品。預計這兩個領域在 2009 年的總可尋址市場規模約為 650 億美元，為該部門提供了可觀的增長機會。

PerformancePoint Server, which is our business intelligence offering, had over 10,000 customers on a CTP program, an amount larger than some competitors' installed bases. In Unified Communications, Office Communications Server, also has been gathering interest was over 80,000 beta downloads of the software.

PerformancePoint Server 是我們的商業智能產品，在 CTP 計劃上擁有超過 10,000 名客戶，數量超過了一些競爭對手的安裝基礎。在統一通信、Office Communications Server 方面，該軟件的測試版下載量也已超過 80,000 次。

In the Entertainment and Devices Division we're forecasting revenue growth of 15% to 20% for the full year, and flat to down 8% for Q2. Our Q2 revenue growth, however, should be viewed in conjunction with the earlier than expected ramp up of console sales in Q1 in preparation for the coming holiday season. If you look at our overall for the first six months, that is the first quarter and the second quarter combined, growth would have been above 15%.

在娛樂和設備部門，我們預計全年收入增長 15% 至 20%，第二季度持平至下降 8%。然而，我們第二季度的收入增長應該與第一季度控制台銷售早於預期的增長結合起來，為即將到來的假期做準備。如果你看看我們前六個月的整體情況，即第一季度和第二季度的總和，增長率將超過 15%。

(inaudible) in the quarter has historically comprised almost half of industry hardware and software sales. With competitively priced console bundles and accessories, combined with a great first and third-party software title lineup, we feel very good about our position getting into the holidays.

本季度（聽不清）歷來佔行業硬件和軟件銷售額的近一半。憑藉價格具有競爭力的控制台捆綁包和配件，再加上出色的第一方和第三方軟件標題陣容，我們對自己在假期中的地位感到非常滿意。

We also look forward to bringing more choice to digital music consumers with our expanded families of Zune devices and updated music Marketplace, and new software updates, such as podcasting support, new wireless [send] and sync functionality and an attractive user interface. And in appreciation of our early Zune adopters, the new software features will be updatable to current owners' devices as well.

我們還期待通過我們擴展的 Zune 設備系列和更新的音樂市場，以及新的軟件更新，例如播客支持、新的無線 [發送] 和同步功能以及有吸引力的用戶界面，為數字音樂消費者帶來更多選擇。為了感謝我們早期的 Zune 採用者，新的軟件功能也可以更新到當前用戶的設備上。

Turning back to Companywide performance, operating income for the year is expected to be between $23.3 billion and $23.7 billion, increasing 26% to 28%. Our higher revenue forecast is responsible for the improvement versus our July guidance, as we expect over half the incremental revenue to flow through to operating profit. For the second quarter we expect operating income to be between $5.9 billion and $6.1 billion.

回到全公司業績，全年營業收入預計在 233 億美元至 237 億美元之間，增長 26% 至 28%。與我們 7 月份的指引相比，我們較高的收入預測是改善的原因，因為我們預計超過一半的增量收入將流向營業利潤。我們預計第二季度的營業收入將在 59 億美元至 61 億美元之間。

As a result of the higher operating income guidance, we are increasing our full year earnings per share results to $1.78 to $1.81, including $0.01 impact from integration and deal costs associated with aQuantive. This is an increase of $0.08 to $0.09 on a GAAP basis, or $0.09 to $0.10 excluding deal cost. For the second quarter we expect $0.44 to $0.46. These earnings then assume, both for the year and for the quarter, an effective tax rate of 30.5%.

由於更高的營業收入指導，我們將全年每股收益提高至 1.78 美元至 1.81 美元，其中包括與 aQuantive 相關的整合和交易成本帶來的 0.01 美元影響。按公認會計原則計算，這增加了 0.08 美元至 0.09 美元，或者不包括交易成本，增加了 0.09 美元至 0.10 美元。我們預計第二季度為 0.44 美元至 0.46 美元。然後，這些收益假設本年度和本季度的有效稅率為 30.5%。

From a balance sheet perspective, we expect that total unearned revenues to finish fiscal 2008 up 8% to 10%, in line with our prior guidance. Excluding deferred revenue for undelivered elements, the remaining portion of unearned revenue should increase 14% to 16%.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們預計 2008 財年未實現收入總額將增長 8% 至 10%，與我們之前的指導一致。不包括未交付元素的遞延收入，未實現收入的剩餘部分應增加 14% 至 16%。

When thinking about sequential changes in unearned revenue from Q1 to Q2, we expect the balance to follow historical patterns and remain roughly flat. Contracted not billed should also finish 2008 up from current levels.

在考慮從第一季度到第二季度未實現收入的連續變化時，我們預計餘額將遵循歷史模式並大致保持不變。 2008 年未開票的合同也應從當前水平上升。

It is clearly important, especially in the current environment, that you consider some of the risks of this forecast. These risks include competitors, legal, execution, and general market risks, such as foreign exchange rate movements, fluctuations in PC and server hardware growth rates, and consumer acceptance of our new and existing products. Additionally changes in the mix of our billings between annuity and license-only can have an impact on revenue, operating income and earnings per share by delaying revenue recognition in a future period.

考慮到這一預測的一些風險顯然很重要，尤其是在當前環境下。這些風險包括競爭對手、法律、執行和一般市場風險，例如外匯匯率變動、PC 和服務器硬件增長率的波動，以及消費者對我們新產品和現有產品的接受程度。此外，我們在年金和僅許可之間的賬單組合的變化可能會延遲未來期間的收入確認，從而對收入、營業收入和每股收益產生影響。

So to wrap up, the first quarter was an outstanding start to the year. A strong PC and hardware market, healthy demand by business customers for our products, and overwhelming consumer response to the launch of Halo 3, helped propel us to the fastest Q1 revenue growth in seven years.

總而言之，第一季度是今年的一個出色開端。強勁的 PC 和硬件市場、商業客戶對我們產品的健康需求以及消費者對 Halo 3 推出的熱烈反應，幫助我們實現了七年來最快的第一季度收入增長。

To put that in context, our revenue base is about 2.5 times larger than it was the last time we grew this fast. The fact that we can beat the law of large numbers is a tribute to our product and sales teams.

綜上所述，我們的收入基礎比上一次增長如此之快時大了約 2.5 倍。我們能夠擊敗大數定律這一事實是對我們的產品和銷售團隊的致敬。

Product execution and cost discipline allowed the majority of our revenue upside to flow through to operating income. And for the balance of this year we will continue to deliver the strategies for shareholder value we outlined at our financial analyst meeting in July, in particular driving our topline growth, continuing to invest in technology offerings that will provide the platform for future growth, and using our strong cash flow and balance sheet to benefit shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

產品執行和成本紀律使我們的大部分收入增長都流向了營業收入。在今年餘下的時間裡，我們將繼續實施我們在 7 月份的財務分析師會議上概述的股東價值戰略，特別是推動我們的收入增長，繼續投資於為未來增長提供平台的技術產品，以及利用我們強勁的現金流和資產負債表，通過股息和股票回購使股東受益。

With that, I will hand the call over to Colleen so we can get started taking some of your questions. Thank you.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給科琳，這樣我們就可以開始回答你的一些問題了。謝謝你。

Let's proceed to questions. We want to accommodate as many questions as we can from as many of you, so please avoid multipart questions. And please limit yourselves to just one question.

讓我們繼續提問。我們希望盡可能多地回答你們中的盡可能多的問題，所以請避免多部分問題。請把自己限制在一個問題上。

Operator, can you please repeat your instructions?

接線員，您能重複一下您的指示嗎？

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). Heather Bellini, UBS.

（操作員說明）。瑞銀集團的希瑟·貝里尼。

Congratulations on the quarter. I was wondering if you could give us an update on your view of this adoption thus far, and in particular how the uptake of premium SKUs, both on the consumer side, and also with just the Enterprise, are tracking versus your original expectations? And how should we think about that going forward?

祝賀本季度。我想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關您迄今為止對這種採用的看法的最新信息，特別是在消費者方面以及僅在企業方面，優質 SKU 的使用情況與您最初的預期相比如何？我們應該如何看待未來的發展？

Clearly we're very happy with the Client Division overall. As you have seen since we launched Vista the revenue growth has been in excess of 20% three quarters in a row. So the overall hit [line number] very good.

顯然，我們對整個客戶部感到非常滿意。正如您所見，自從我們推出 Vista 以來，收入增長連續三個季度超過 20%。所以整體命中[行號]非常好。

In terms of the premium mix, also very happy about that. In this case premium mix brings in both Visa and XP premium sales as well. And that is tracking in the mid-70s, so 75% for the quarter. And that compares to, I believe, 59% in the equivalent quarter last year. So up 16 points year-over-year. And so we're very happy with the adoption of Vista Premium and also happy with the old XP media sales as well.

就高級組合而言，對此也感到非常高興。在這種情況下，高級組合也帶來了 Visa 和 XP 的高級銷售。這是在 70 年代中期跟踪的，因此本季度為 75%。我相信，與去年同期的 59% 相比。因此，同比增長 16 個百分點。因此，我們對 Vista Premium 的採用非常滿意，並且對舊 XP 媒體的銷售也很滿意。

The other thing I will point to is on the Client annuity agreements, which is probably the best leading indicator we can think of, of people's intention to adopt, it is still very early in the adoption cycle for businesses, but the volume licensing portion of our business was up 27% in the Client area. So that is a very good leading indicator from our point of view. And sort of finally as a wrapper, the [license]to date sales are now 85 million units for Vista, that compares to about 45 million for XP over the same period. So almost twice as much. It is still early days, but progress we're very happy with so far.

我要指出的另一件事是客戶年金協議，這可能是我們能想到的最好的領先指標，人們打算採用它，它仍處於企業採用周期的早期階段，但批量許可部分我們在客戶領域的業務增長了 27%。所以從我們的角度來看，這是一個非常好的領先指標。最後，作為一個包裝器，[許可證] 迄今為止，Vista 的銷量現在為 8500 萬台，而同期 XP 的銷量約為 4500 萬台。所以幾乎是兩倍。現在還處於初期階段，但到目前為止我們對進展感到非常滿意。

Just on the premium SKUs, would you say that they are tracking above what you guys had expected when you originally launched the product?

僅在高級 SKU 上，您會說它們的跟踪超出了你們最初發布產品時的預期嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Adam Holt, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的亞當霍爾特。

I will also echo the congratulations. I had two questions on the business uptake. In particular you had a meaningful acceleration on the Client side in terms of business units, and I was hoping maybe you could detail what you thought was behind that acceleration?

我也會表示祝賀。我有兩個關於業務吸收的問題。特別是在業務部門方面，您在客戶端進行了有意義的加速，我希望您能詳細說明您認為加速背後的原因是什麼？

And then on the Office front, still another quarter of better than 20% Office growth on the business front. Where do you think we are on the Enterprise upgrade cycle for Office?

然後在辦公室方面，在業務方面，辦公室增長仍然超過 20%。您認為我們處於 Office 企業升級週期的哪個階段？

We start with Client. The business sales were, to be honest, a function of an underlying demand. So the PC units came in at 14% to 16% for the quarter overall compared to our expectations of around 10% to 12%. We saw a good uplift in overall PC units, and that was both on the consumer and the business side.

我們從客戶開始。老實說，企業銷售是潛在需求的函數。因此，與我們預期的大約 10% 至 12% 相比，整個季度的 PC 單元占 14% 至 16%。我們看到整體 PC 單位出現了良好的增長，這在消費者和商業方面都是如此。

I think the benefit that we saw on the business aspect was probably most particular in some of the emerging markets. So we saw good strength in business, and that really helped us with the antipiracy and legalization aspect of our growth. So if PC units grew by 14% to 16%, and our shipped units that we were paid for grew by 20%, and all of that delta was effectively our fight against unlicensed PCs.

我認為我們在業務方面看到的好處可能在一些新興市場中最為特殊。因此，我們看到了良好的業務實力，這確實幫助了我們在反盜版和合法化方面的增長。因此，如果 PC 單位增長 14% 到 16%，我們支付的發貨單位增長 20%，那麼所有這些增量實際上就是我們與未經許可的 PC 的鬥爭。

So the growth that we saw in the Business segment, in particular internationally, really helped us in terms of overall unit sales. So I felt very good about that. And we still think that consumers will grow faster than businesses but overall a very good story on the Client side.

因此，我們在業務領域看到的增長，特別是在國際上，確實在整體單位銷售方面幫助了我們。所以我對此感覺很好。而且我們仍然認為消費者的增長速度將快於企業，但總體而言在客戶端方面是一個非常好的故事。

In terms of the Office, that has a slightly different impact, mainly because it is a much stronger impact from annuity there rather than non-annuity sales. Although interestingly, non-annuity sales, which typically go to smaller businesses, were strong as well, which is a very direct impact with Office.

就辦公室而言，影響略有不同，主要是因為那裡的年金而不是非年金銷售的影響要大得多。儘管有趣的是，通常流向小型企業的非年金銷售也很強勁，這對 Office 產生了非常直接的影響。

In the annuity sales, which tend to have a multiyear impact, you recall I spoke last quarter about how we saw a very strong signup for maturing agreements right at the top end of our expectations. And that was really a very good leading indicator of people's acceptance of -- or expectation that they would roll out Office, but also the other products in MBD. So it is clearly strong from our point of view that people are seeing not only a value in Office, but products that are related to Office, for example, in the Unified Communications and Business Intelligence area. So overall we're feeling good about the rollout.

在往往會產生多年影響的年金銷售中，您還記得我在上個季度談到了我們如何看到在我們預期的最高端到期的協議的非常強大的簽約。這確實是人們接受或期望他們將推出 Office 以及 MBD 中的其他產品的一個非常好的領先指標。因此，從我們的角度來看，人們不僅看到了 Office 的價值，而且看到了與 Office 相關的產品，例如在統一通信和商業智能領域，這顯然是很重要的。所以總的來說，我們對推出感覺很好。

Sarah Friar, Goldman Sachs.

莎拉·弗萊爾，高盛。

I think everyone is going to say congratulations, but it is quite an amazing quarter you put up. Just following on one more comment on the Client Vista adoption side, I think a lot of folks had thought SP1 would be the catalyst. Why do you think we saw it go up ahead of that, and do you have a timing update on SP1? And then I just have a quick follow-up question if I may after that.

我想每個人都會說祝賀，但這是你提出的一個非常了不起的季度。就在客戶端 Vista 採用方面的另一條評論之後，我想很多人都認為 SP1 將成為催化劑。為什麼你認為我們看到它在那之前上升了，你有關於 SP1 的時間更新嗎？然後我有一個快速的後續問題，如果我可以的話。

Vista adoption, as I say, is still early. I talked about intention to adopt rather than actual adoption. I think you are right that certainly some businesses will be waiting for SP1 to roll it out. But in terms of their willingness to sign up for the Client element of the multiyear agreements, their intention to roll out is, I guess, signaled by that. So it is still early days as to what the actual adoption numbers are. And we think it will increase during the year, and obviously will be helped to some extent by SP1. But some of the leading indicators are what we feel good about.

正如我所說，採用 Vista 還為時過早。我談到了採用的意圖，而不是實際的採用。我認為你是對的，當然有些企業會等待 SP1 推出。但就他們願意簽署多年協議的客戶元素而言，我想他們推出的意圖是由此發出的信號。因此，實際採用數字是多少還為時過早。我們認為這一年會增加，顯然SP1會在一定程度上有所幫助。但一些領先指標是我們感覺良好的。

Got it. And then just turning to the EDD division, it is in a great quarter. It seems like you do think there was some pull forward on consoles, just based on your guidance. Is there anything implied in your guidance on broader commentary about health of consumer spending in the fourth quarter? Are you leaving yourself a little bit more cushion there?

知道了。然後只是轉向 EDD 部門，這是一個很棒的季度。根據您的指導，您似乎確實認為控制台有一些進步。您對第四季度消費者支出健康狀況的更廣泛評論的指導是否暗示了什麼？你是不是給自己留了一點緩衝？

No, it is principally around the four quarters you mentioned. As I said in my prepared remarks, I tend to look at the business for the first six months rather than the quarters. In particular in the first quarter console sales were 1.8 million units, which is relatively small. It was ahead of our expectations, but it is a quarter where you can beat expectations because the volumes are small. I mean, Halo was obviously a clear beat. But in terms of consoles I would rather think of the volume over that six months, because there's a lot of stocking in anticipation of Christmas going on and movements like that.

不，主要是你提到的四個季度。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我傾向於關注前六個月的業務，而不是季度。尤其是一季度主機銷量為180萬台，比較少。它超出了我們的預期，但這是一個可以超出預期的季度，因為數量很少。我的意思是，Halo 顯然是一個清晰的節拍。但就遊戲機而言，我寧願考慮那六個月的銷量，因為有很多庫存可以期待聖誕節的到來和類似的活動。

I feel good about it. There is no particular signaling on weakness for Christmas. In fact, we feel very good about the lineup we have got, not only from the box itself, but obviously the games associated with it as well.

我對此感覺良好。沒有關於聖誕節疲軟的特別信號。事實上，我們對我們得到的陣容感覺非常好，不僅來自盒子本身，而且顯然與它相關的遊戲也是如此。

Charlie DiBona, Sanford Bernstein.

查理·迪博納，桑福德·伯恩斯坦。

I guess no surprise here, but I'm going to go back to the well on OSB. It was probably the only division that didn't really outperform significantly. Only about 10% growth excluding aQuantive. And the comp score share is back down to the lows that they were in your fiscal Q4.

我想這並不奇怪，但我要回到 OSB 上的井。它可能是唯一一個表現不佳的部門。不包括aQuantive，僅增長約10%。並且比較分數份額已回落至第四財季的低點。

Especially in light of yesterday's announcement around Facebook, maybe you can give us a little insight into the strategy and execution here. And is there any shift towards buying traffic in community rather than building it internally? And in general how do you go about balancing those two alternatives and valuing those two alternatives?

尤其是鑑於昨天圍繞 Facebook 的公告，也許您可以在這裡給我們一些關於戰略和執行的見解。是否有任何轉向在社區購買流量而不是在內部構建流量？總的來說，您如何平衡這兩種選擇並評估這兩種選擇？

Sure. First thing to note obviously is we met expectations, so it wasn't a beat, I agree, but it was a meet. So start with that. Underlying business growth or revenue growth, you mentioned the 10%, which is correct. Clearly in this case there is a negative from the Access business going away.

當然。首先要注意的是我們達到了預期，所以這不是一個節拍，我同意，但這是一個滿足。所以從那開始。基礎業務增長或收入增長，您提到了 10%，這是正確的。顯然，在這種情況下，Access 業務的消失會帶來負面影響。

But if you look at underlying revenue growth, underlying advertising revenue growth, it grew in the mid-20s, around 25% for the quarter year-on-year, which we think is acceptable. It is not certainly stellar. We would like to see it higher, but it is acceptable. And it is higher than where we guided at the start of the year roughly speaking.

但如果你看看潛在的收入增長，潛在的廣告收入增長，它在 20 年代中期增長，本季度同比增長約 25%，我們認為這是可以接受的。它肯定不是恆星。我們希望看到它更高，但這是可以接受的。粗略地說，它高於我們在年初指導的地方。

I think reasonable progress on the organic side of the business. In terms of putting the building blocks in place in how we trade-off organic growth through inorganic growth, it is both. The strategy has been both, and will continue to be both. So we are investing heavily in the organic aspects of the business. So a lot of investment in particular has gone into the search product itself. And we are clearly extremely happy with the improvements we are seeing on aspects like relevance, which are critical going forward.

我認為在業務的有機方面取得了合理的進展。就我們如何通過無機增長來權衡有機增長而言，它是兩者兼而有之。該戰略一直是，並將繼續兩者兼而有之。因此，我們在業務的有機方面進行了大量投資。因此，特別是對搜索產品本身進行了大量投資。我們顯然對我們在相關性等方面看到的改進感到非常滿意，這對未來至關重要。

We are putting a lot of investment into things like data centers, which are creating the platforms of the future and the experience. So we are increasing CapEx by considerably there. We're looking at CapEx overall for the year of $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion, about half of which is going into the OSB area. And we are putting investment in some of the verticals that I talked about on search organically and all the other areas as well, content on the display side.

我們在數據中心等方面投入了大量資金，這些東西正在創造未來的平台和體驗。因此，我們正在大幅增加資本支出。我們預計今年的資本支出為 32 億至 33 億美元，其中約一半將進入 OSB 領域。我們正在投資於我談到的有機搜索的一些垂直領域以及所有其他領域，以及顯示方面的內容。

So there is a strong organic side. There's a strong inorganic side. But clearly aQuantive is the most obvious representation of that. And we're particularly happy that we not only closed aQuantive, but we have retained all the employees. We think that integration has gone extremely well. And we believe that is going to generate some significant benefits going forward.

所以有很強的有機的一面。有很強的無機方面。但顯然 aQuantive 是最明顯的代表。我們特別高興的是，我們不僅關閉了 aQuantive，而且保留了所有員工。我們認為整合進行得非常好。我們相信這將在未來產生一些顯著的好處。

We also did some other smaller acquisitions, ones which we think are important for the Ad platform, like ECM during the quarter. And then the announcement yesterday on Facebook, which is a willingness on our part to make a commitment to a multiyear agreement with a partner who we think has got some tremendous growth opportunities.

我們還進行了一些其他較小的收購，我們認為這些對廣告平台很重要，例如本季度的 ECM。然後昨天在 Facebook 上宣布，這是我們願意與我們認為已經獲得巨大增長機會的合作夥伴簽訂多年協議的承諾。

So we're willing to do both. We are quite clearly willing to suffer an operating loss in that division as a result of those commitments, and we have foreshadowed that I think both at our financial analyst meeting and our guidance. But to date in terms of underlying financial metrics, we're on track. In terms of some of the other things that we wanted to do, if anything we're slightly ahead of where we would like to be.

所以我們願意兩者都做。由於這些承諾，我們很明顯願意在該部門遭受運營損失，並且我們已經預示了我認為在我們的財務分析師會議和我們的指導中。但迄今為止，就基本財務指標而言，我們正在走上正軌。就我們想做的其他一些事情而言，如果有的話，我們會稍微領先於我們想要的位置。

Brent Thill, Citigroup.

花旗集團的布倫特希爾。

Chris, I think your guidance for the fiscal year implies roughly a 40% operating margin, and clearly in Q1 it was higher than 40%. Why do you expect the operating margin will drift to that lower level for the year?

克里斯，我認為你對本財年的指導意味著大約 40% 的營業利潤率，顯然在第一季度它高於 40%。為什麼您預計今年的營業利潤率會下降到這個較低的水平？

Overall for the year we feel very good about the operating income growth relative to revenue growth, and it will still be an increase year-on-year. So there are some COGS impacts, for example, the mix of COGS during the course of the year. And we just saw an outstanding performance in the first quarter, some really, really strong growth in particular in Client and MBD. So we think that outperformance is going to continue, but not at the same rate.

總體來看，我們對營業收入增長相對於收入增長的感覺非常好，而且仍會同比增長。因此，存在一些 COGS 影響，例如，一年中 COGS 的組合。我們剛剛在第一季度看到了出色的表現，一些非常非常強勁的增長，特別是在客戶和 MBD 方面。因此，我們認為優異的表現將繼續，但不會以相同的速度。

Operating margins improved, but I think quarter one was just an outstanding one in terms of our ability to take the revenue outperformance and drive it to the bottom line. And as I say, there is a different COGS mix to the rest of the year which impacted it as well.

營業利潤率有所提高，但我認為第一季度只是一個出色的季度，因為我們有能力將收入表現出色並將其推向底線。正如我所說，與今年剩餘時間不同的 COGS 組合也對其產生了影響。

But overall, we are going to grow operating income faster than revenue growth this year, which means margins are going to expand. And the other impact, which you know I talked to you about, is we expect earnings per share to grow very fast as well. Taking out all of the one-offs, if you like, we think EPS is going to grow faster than 20% this year, which is the benefit of the operating margin expansion and also the benefit of things like share buyback flowing through. At this stage of the cycle for the Company, for a company our size to grow this year greater than 20%, up significantly from where we were, we feel good about as a mix.

但總體而言，我們今年的營業收入增長速度將超過收入增長速度，這意味著利潤率將會擴大。你知道我和你談過的另一個影響是，我們預計每股收益也會快速增長。剔除所有一次性的，如果你願意，我們認為今年每股收益的增長速度將超過 20%，這是營業利潤率擴大的好處，也是股票回購等流動的好處。在公司週期的這個階段，對於我們今年的規模增長超過 20% 的公司，比我們的水平顯著增長，我們感覺很好。

Just one quick one, if I could. Relative to Enterprise demand, it sounds like it has improved slightly over the past couple of quarters. Do you think it stabilizes from here or has room to improve even from here?

如果可以的話，就一個快速的。相對於企業需求，它聽起來在過去幾個季度略有改善。您認為它從這裡開始穩定還是從這裡開始還有改進的空間？

In terms of renewals, with respect to more traditional levels in the first quarter, and that is the two-thirds to three-quarters rank that we talked about. So we saw a particularly good renewal rate in the fourth quarter. We're back down to some more traditional levels, but levels which we feel obviously very good about. So I don't think -- we're not expecting an outperformance or an increase back to the very, very good levels that we saw in the fourth quarter. But if we can maintain traditional levels, and obviously start to sell the new product range that we have coming through to our existing clients, and hence get the benefits of all of the additional products that we've either launched or are going to launch, that sets us up very well from a business point of view in terms of overall billings growth.

在續約方面，第一季度比較傳統的水平，也就是我們說的三分之二到四分之三的排名。因此，我們在第四季度看到了特別好的續訂率。我們回到了一些更傳統的水平，但我們感覺顯然非常好。所以我不認為 - 我們預計不會表現出色或增長回我們在第四季度看到的非常非常好的水平。但是，如果我們能夠保持傳統水平，並且顯然開始向現有客戶銷售我們推出的新產品系列，從而獲得我們已經推出或即將推出的所有其他產品的好處，從整體賬單增長的業務角度來看，這使我們非常好。

John DiFucci, Bear, Stearns.

約翰迪福奇，貝爾斯登。

Just a follow-up question I guess to Brent. The margins were really impressive here, Chris. And even next quarter you have a meaningful impact -- a meaningful increase in revenue and a pretty, I guess, meaningful decline in operating margin. Is there any reason for us to think that you can't do a lot better than what you're saying here? I understand what you're saying about the COGS, but it looks like it is something that can continue.

我猜對布倫特來說只是一個後續問題。克里斯，這裡的利潤率真的令人印象深刻。即使在下個季度，你也會產生有意義的影響——收入顯著增加，我猜，營業利潤率顯著下降。我們有什麼理由認為你不能比你在這裡說的做得更好嗎？我理解你所說的關於 COGS 的內容，但看起來它可以繼續下去。

Probably the first thing to do is to normalize for aQuantive. So that may be distorting the numbers. But we're bringing that in for the first time, and that is bringing in revenue but no operating income. In fact with the amortization of intangibles, it will be a slight loss for the year. That is probably a drag on the margins that you might want to normalize for, at least give us the benefit of.

可能要做的第一件事是對 aQuantive 進行歸一化。所以這可能會扭曲數字。但我們是第一次引入這一點，那就是帶來收入，但沒有營業收入。事實上，隨著無形資產的攤銷，全年會出現小幅虧損。這可能是您可能希望正常化的利潤的拖累，至少給我們帶來好處。

If you take that out -- the way that I look at it is, what is our ability to meet our operating expenditure guidance and potentially outperform on the revenue side, as opposed to drive the business on a margin basis? And I would say I'm particularly happy with the fact that we delivered increased revenue in the quarter, while keeping operating expenditures virtually right on guidance.

如果你把它拿出來——按照我的看法，我們有什麼能力滿足我們的運營支出指導並在收入方面可能表現出色，而不是在利潤率的基礎上推動業務？我會說我對我們在本季度實現收入增加的事實感到特別高興，同時運營支出幾乎保持在指導水平。

You recall from last year I was certainly happy that we delivered the whole year right on operating expenditures. So I feel really good about the business groups' discipline, the salesforce discipline, to the large extent keeping operating expenses under control, which will allow us to, to the extent that we beat revenue, to drive it to the bottom line.

您還記得去年的情況，我當然很高興我們全年的運營支出都正確無誤。因此，我對業務團隊的紀律、銷售人員紀律感覺非常好，這在很大程度上控制了運營費用，這將使我們能夠在超過收入的情況下將其推向底線。

I can't promise that is necessarily going to significantly increase margins, but it will increase margins every dollar that drops through. And perhaps if you back out aQuantive that will give you a better comparison.

我不能保證這一定會顯著增加利潤，但它會增加每一美元的利潤。也許如果你退出 aQuantive，那會給你一個更好的比較。

From a fiscal year on fiscal year, if you're looking at organic, fiscal year '07 you are seeing us sort of a bit above the mid-30s. You pull out aQuantive and legal charges and tax, guaranteed bonds and the rest of it, for the year you are sort of in that 40% range.

從一個財政年度到一個財政年度，如果您正在查看 07 財政年度的有機，您會看到我們有點高於 30 年代中期。你拿出一個數量和法律費用和稅收，擔保債券和其他部分，你在這一年的 40% 範圍內。

And then of course with Q2, given that Xbox, with the hardware such a big driver for holiday, Q2 for the year in terms of the shape of the year you would probably see a dip. But year-on-year when you look at the true underlying organic, pulling out aQuantive and some of those other things, you're going to see I think pretty good margin there.

然後當然是第二季度，鑑於 Xbox，硬件是假期的重要推動力，就今年的形狀而言，今年第二季度你可能會看到下降。但是與去年同期相比，當您查看真正的潛在有機產品、提取 aQuantive 和其他一些東西時，您會看到我認為那裡的利潤率相當不錯。

On aQuantive, to help you, and obviously we have to give more detail as we go on, but aQuantive will add 5 to [$600] million of revenue for the year. We will pull out deal costs and IPR&D that we write-off of close to $100 million. But we will still leave in things like amortization of intangibles, which we know other companies tend to call out. We will leave those in, which means that will be a drag on the operating income of close to a couple of hundred million dollars for this year. So perhaps that will help you normalize for that.

在 aQuantive 上，為了幫助您，顯然我們必須提供更多細節，但 aQuantive 將在今年增加 5 至 [6 億美元] 的收入。我們將取消我們註銷的近 1 億美元的交易成本和 IPR&D。但是我們仍然會留下諸如無形資產攤銷之類的事情，我們知道其他公司傾向於呼籲。我們將保留這些，這意味著這將拖累今年接近幾億美元的營業收入。所以也許這會幫助你正常化。

Kash Rangan, Merrill Lynch.

卡什蘭根，美林證券。

Good to see a quarter like that, and more particularly the stock breakout into a multiyear high. It's got to look good. I just had a question on the Online business. It looks like you have done a good job restoring -- or bringing profitability to let's say to the Entertainment and Devices business. At what point are we in making similar progress in the profitability of the Online business, especially with aQuantive being integrated into the operations of the Company?

很高興看到這樣的季度，尤其是股價突破多年高點。它必須看起來不錯。我剛剛對在線業務有疑問。看起來您在恢復或為娛樂和設備業務帶來盈利方面做得很好。我們在什麼時候在在線業務的盈利能力方面取得了類似的進展，特別是在 aQuantive 被整合到公司的運營中之後？

And as follow-on, I was just also curious to get your thoughts on the Client side. I know you do sell-in, and correct me if I'm wrong and there has been some concerns in certain segments of Wall Street that there might be an inventory issue on Wall Street, especially on the PC side, and that Intel had a good quarter, or you guys had a good quarter, but with retail -- if that is sort of weakening or at least suspected to weaken during the holiday season, who knows. I am just wondering if you share that concern? And if you don't, what specifically sort of makes you feel that this inventory buildup could actually lead to sell-through in the Christmas holiday season?

作為後續，我也很想知道您對客戶端的想法。我知道你確實賣貨，如果我錯了，請糾正我，並且華爾街的某些部門擔心華爾街可能存在庫存問題，尤其是在 PC 方面，而且英特爾有好的季度，或者你們有一個好的季度，但零售 - 如果這在假期期間有所減弱或至少被懷疑會減弱，誰知道呢。我只是想知道你是否也有同樣的擔憂？如果你不這樣做，是什麼讓你覺得這種庫存積累實際上可能導致聖誕節假期銷售？

Sure. Entertainment and Devices and OSB are really at different parts of their business cycle. So it was a very strong commitment from our point of view to try and drive profitability in the Entertainment and Devices Division this year. And we feel like we are on track for that. So they are on, if you like, an upswing to a part of their business cycle where we believe we can be profitable.

當然。娛樂和設備以及 OSB 確實處於其業務週期的不同階段。因此，從我們的角度來看，今年嘗試提高娛樂和設備部門的盈利能力是一個非常堅定的承諾。我們覺得我們已經走上了正軌。因此，如果您願意的話，他們正處於上升到其商業周期的一部分，我們相信我們可以盈利。

In the OSB case that isn't the primary driver of the business at the moment. The primary driver is to invest in the right areas and create the platform for a very strong growth in economic value over the next few years. So it is not one where we are [fettered] but if we were profitable, but it is one where it is not going to be our primary determinant of success this year.

在 OSB 案例中，這不是目前業務的主要驅動力。主要驅動力是在正確的領域進行投資，並為未來幾年經濟價值的強勁增長創造平台。因此，這不是我們[束縛]的地方，而是我們是否盈利，但它不會成為我們今年成功的主要決定因素。

I will be keen to ensure that the expenses come in where they are. I will obviously be keen to see that our revenue growth is in line with expectations. But assuming we meet those two things, it is going to be a loss for the year. So they are just different. The businesses are at different parts of their business cycle, and so we have different tests against them.

我將熱衷於確保費用到位。我顯然很想看到我們的收入增長符合預期。但是假設我們滿足這兩件事，那將是今年的損失。所以他們只是不同。這些企業處於其商業周期的不同部分，因此我們對它們進行了不同的測試。

On the Client side, we are not seeing any significant inventory issues that we're aware of. So from our point of view, if you look at the guidance, we feel good about PC unit growth guidance of 11% to 13%. Anything in double digits or greater we think is good. That is like a sell-in number, using your terminology. We think that is good, and we think we should be able to drive OEM units in our area around that same level. There is no particular issues of significance that we're aware of.

在客戶端，我們沒有看到任何我們知道的重大庫存問題。所以從我們的角度來看，如果你看一下指導，我們對 11% 到 13% 的 PC 單位增長指導感到滿意。我們認為任何兩位數或更高的數字都是好的。這就像一個銷售號碼，使用你的術語。我們認為這很好，我們認為我們應該能夠在同一水平上推動我們地區的 OEM 單位。沒有我們意識到的特別重要的問題。

It just looks like the emerging markets in the BRIC countries, perhaps business there is accelerating, and that is why your OEM units are looking better than they have in the last few quarters.

看起來就像金磚國家的新興市場，也許那裡的業務正在加速發展，這就是為什麼您的 OEM 部門看起來比過去幾個季度更好的原因。

That is absolutely right. Those countries really did an outstanding job. Countries like Russia, the business overall grew there by greater than 100% in the OEM area, and Client grew by something like 50%. Some of those countries are growing at a tremendous rate, which is a function of the underlying economies growing well, but as we see business growth in those areas and a greater desire to obviously be -- have legitimate PCs, we are seeing good progress on piracy as well. And that is really helping us with our overall OEM units.

這是完全正確的。這些國家確實做得非常出色。像俄羅斯這樣的國家，OEM 領域的整體業務增長超過 100%，客戶增長了大約 50%。其中一些國家正在以驚人的速度增長，這是基礎經濟增長良好的一個功能，但是當我們看到這些領域的業務增長以及顯然更渴望擁有合法個人電腦時，我們看到了良好的進展盜版也是如此。這確實對我們的整體 OEM 部門有所幫助。

We have time for one, maybe two more questions please.

我們有時間回答一個，也許還有兩個問題。

Kirk Materne, Banc of America.

美國銀行的柯克·馬特內 (Kirk Materne)。

Maybe I might be jumping ahead a little bit here, but clearly you guys haven't seen any slowdown in terms of demand around either SQL Server or Windows Server 2008 in front of those launches. What is your expectation in terms of the impact of those launches on the growth rates? Do you think that we will see demand come in at a steady pace, or do you expect that as we get into the back half of the year that can help accelerate the growth rates in that division?

也許我可能會在這裡稍微領先一點，但顯然你們在這些發布之前沒有看到圍繞 SQL Server 或 Windows Server 2008 的需求出現任何放緩。您對這些發布對增長率的影響有何期望？您是否認為我們會看到需求以穩定的速度進入，或者您是否預計隨著我們進入下半年，這有助於加快該部門的增長率？

I think it will help continue the sort of growth rates that we have seen to a large extent. You have to realize that the structure of our business really has matured significantly to one that is driven much more around multiyear expectations. So people are -- to the extent we are seeing strength in annuity agreements now, it is an anticipation of those products. The fact those products launch [winding] itself drive an enormous amount of accounting activity. We will see that over a slow burden.

我認為這將有助於在很大程度上延續我們已經看到的那種增長率。您必須意識到，我們的業務結構確實已經顯著成熟到更多地圍繞多年預期驅動。所以人們 - 就我們現在看到年金協議的力量而言，這是對這些產品的預期。這些產品推出 [上鍊] 的事實本身推動了大量的會計活動。我們將在緩慢的負擔中看到這一點。

So that is the same phenomenon we talked about with Vista. These things will happen over time as people adapt and adopt the particular systems. But from a revenue and economic point of view, our relationship with our customers, our ability to continue to sign them up and drive growth is much more of a multi-tiered route than a single event-based phenomena. We just think a continuation of very strong products rolling out continuously quarter after quarter or year after year is the best way of driving that business.

這與我們在 Vista 中談到的現象相同。隨著人們適應和採用特定的系統，這些事情會隨著時間的推移而發生。但從收入和經濟的角度來看，我們與客戶的關係、我們繼續簽約並推動增長的能力更多的是一條多層次的路線，而不是單一的基於事件的現象。我們只是認為，一個季度又一個季度或年復一年地不斷推出非常強大的產品是推動該業務的最佳方式。

Just a really quick follow-up on Windows Server 2008. Is the beta for Veridian still expected to be released with a full-blown version released 180 days afterwards? Is that still on track?

只是對 Windows Server 2008 的快速跟進。Veridian 的測試版是否仍有望在 180 天后發布完整版本？這還在軌道上嗎？

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

Thanks so much. And our last question please, operator.

非常感謝。最後一個問題，請接線員。

Brendan Barnicle, Pacific Crest Securities.

Brendan Barnicle，Pacific Crest 證券。

I just had two quick ones. Chris, first on Premium Edition, obviously a great move year-over-year, up 75%. As we have SP1 Comm, where we potentially get more Enterprises pulling in, can we see that Premium Edition even move up higher still?

我剛吃了兩個快的。 Chris，第一個使用高級版，顯然是一個很大的同比增長，增長了 75%。由於我們有 SP1 Comm，我們可能會吸引更多的企業參與進來，我們能否看到高級版甚至更高？

And then just secondly, over on aQuantive have you given any thoughts again to the agency business, and whether that is something that stays within the business or else needs to be divested?

其次，在 aQuantive 上，您是否再次對代理業務有任何想法，以及這是否是留在業務中的東西還是需要剝離？

We're very happy with the agency business. That is continuing to do a great job. I mentioned before, I think the integration has gone extremely well. As far as we can tell the employees are very happy. We are running the agency business in particular on a fairly independent basis, and really letting them continue getting on with their lives. And we think it is a very good business, and no intentions to do anything other than continue to run it. On the Client side, just go over it quickly again. Sorry.

我們對代理業務非常滿意。這繼續做得很好。我之前提到過，我認為整合進行得非常好。據我們所知，員工非常高興。我們特別是在相當獨立的基礎上經營代理業務，並真正讓他們繼續生活。我們認為這是一項非常好的業務，除了繼續經營之外，沒有其他任何打算。在客戶端，再次快速瀏覽一遍。對不起。

The Premium Edition. You know 75%, very impressive, can we see it go to 85%?

高級版。你知道 75%，非常令人印象深刻，我們可以看到它達到 85% 嗎？

We are just looking -- in terms of our guidance and our thoughts and what is embedded, we believe we can continue to drive that at over 70%. But it is too early to predict anything higher than that.

我們只是在尋找——就我們的指導和想法以及嵌入的內容而言，我們相信我們可以繼續將這一比例提高到 70% 以上。但現在預測比這更高的還為時過早。

Would SP1 have any impact on accelerating that?

SP1 對加速有什麼影響嗎？

It might help, but those rates, 70%, are very high. So it might assist, but it may do simply -- just help us continue at that sort of rate. We're not predicting a particular pick-up as a result of that alliance.

這可能會有所幫助，但這些比率（70%）非常高。所以它可能會有所幫助，但它可能只是幫助我們以這種速度繼續下去。我們並沒有預測該聯盟會導致特定的回升。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Thanks everyone for joining us today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to call me or my team directly. As I mentioned at the beginning of this call, this conference call will be available on replay at our Investor Relations website through close of business, October 25, 2008.

感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時直接致電我或我的團隊。正如我在本次電話會議開始時提到的，本次電話會議將於 2008 年 10 月 25 日收盤時在我們的投資者關係網站上重播。

In addition, you can hear the replay by dialing 800-835-8067, or for international calls please dial 203-369-3354. The dial-in replay will be available through the close of business, November 2, 2007. Thanks again everyone for joining us today.

此外，您可以撥打 800-835-8067 收聽重播，國際電話請撥打 203-369-3354。撥入重播將在 2007 年 11 月 2 日營業結束時提供。再次感謝大家今天加入我們。

That concludes today's call. Thank you for joining.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。