微軟 (MSFT) 2007 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to the Microsoft 2007 fiscal year third quarter earnings conference call.

下午好，歡迎參加 Microsoft 2007 財年第三季度財報電話會議。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

Please be advised this call is being recorded.

請注意，此電話正在錄音。

If you have any objections please disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，請在此時斷開連接。

I would now like to turn the call over to Ms.

我現在想把電話轉給女士。

Colleen Healy, General Manager Investor Relations.

投資者關係總經理科琳·希利。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good afternoon everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。

This afternoon I am joined by Chris Liddell, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Frank Brod, Corporate Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and John Seethoff, Deputy General Counsel.

今天下午，高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Chris Liddell 加入了我的行列； Frank Brod，公司副總裁兼首席會計官；和副總法律顧問 John Seethoff。

Today's call will start with Chris providing some key takeaways for the third quarter of fiscal year 2007, and then an overview of expectations for what remains of the fiscal year.

今天的電話會議將首先由 Chris 提供 2007 財年第三季度的一些關鍵要點，然後概述對本財年剩餘時間的預期。

I will then provide detail around our third quarter results, and then turn it back to Chris for a more detailed discussion of our guidance for the fourth quarter, as well as a preliminary Outlook for fiscal year 2008.

然後，我將提供有關我們第三季度業績的詳細信息，然後將其轉回給克里斯，以更詳細地討論我們對第四季度的指導以及 2008 財年的初步展望。

After that we will take your questions.

之後，我們將回答您的問題。

We filed our 10-Q today in conjunction with our earnings release, therefore you have available the earnings release, MD&A, financial statements and footnotes.

我們今天與收益發布一起提交了 10-Q，因此您可以獲得收益發布、MD&A、財務報表和腳註。

We have also posted our quarterly financial summary slide deck, which is intended to follow the flow of our prepared remarks in order to assist you.

我們還發布了我們的季度財務摘要幻燈片，旨在按照我們準備好的評論流程為您提供幫助。

This slide deck offers highlights from the quarter, outlines our guidance, and provides a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will talk about today.

該幻燈片提供了本季度的亮點，概述了我們的指導，並提供了我們今天將要討論的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間差異的協調。

You can find the earnings release, the 10-Q, and the quarterly financial summary slide deck on the Investor Relations website at www.Microsoft.com/MSFT.

您可以在投資者關係網站 www.Microsoft.com/MSFT 上找到收益發布、10-Q 和季度財務摘要幻燈片。

This call will be recorded.

此通話將被錄音。

Please be aware that if you decide to ask a question, it will be included in both our live transmission, as well as any future use of the recording.

請注意，如果您決定提出問題，它將包含在我們的實時傳輸以及將來對錄音的任何使用中。

As always, shareholders and analysts can listen to a live webcast of today's call at the Microsoft Investor Relations website.

與往常一樣，股東和分析師可以在微軟投資者關係網站上收聽今天電話會議的網絡直播。

A replay of the call will be available at the same site through the close of business on April 26, 2008.

到 2008 年 4 月 26 日營業結束時，將在同一地點重播電話會議。

This conference call report is protected by copyright law and international treaty.

本電話會議報告受版權法和國際條約保護。

Unauthorized reproduction, or distribution of this report, or any portion of it may result in civil and criminal penalties.

未經授權複製或分發本報告或其任何部分可能會導致民事和刑事處罰。

Any recording or other use or transmission of the text or audio of today's call is not allowed without the expressed permission of Microsoft.

未經 Microsoft 明確許可，不得對今天通話的文本或音頻進行任何錄音或其他使用或傳輸。

We will be making statements during this call that are forward-looking.

我們將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性聲明。

These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述基於當前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Actual results could differ materially because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the Risk Factors section of our 10-Q, our 2006 Form 10-K, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

由於今天的收益新聞稿、本次電話會議期間的評論以及我們的 10-Q、2006 年 10-K 表格的風險因素部分以及其他報告和文件中討論的因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。證券交易委員會。

We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔任何更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, let me now turn it over to Chris.

有了這個，現在讓我把它交給克里斯。

Good afternoon everyone.

大家下午好。

Thanks for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We're going to use our prepared remarks this afternoon to share our third quarter results, discuss our outlook for the fourth quarter, and provide a preliminary view of fiscal 2008.

我們將利用我們今天下午準備好的講話來分享我們的第三季度業績，討論我們對第四季度的展望，並提供對 2008 財年的初步看法。

I'm extremely pleased with the Company's financial performance during the quarter, as revenue, operating income and earnings per share exceeded our expectations, and each grew at strong double-digit rates.

我對公司本季度的財務業績感到非常滿意，因為收入、營業收入和每股收益超出了我們的預期，並且都以兩位數的強勁增長速度增長。

Our results were primarily driven by strength in our core product.

我們的業績主要是由我們核心產品的實力推動的。

Windows Vista and 2007 Microsoft Office System will have a multiyear impact, and both are off to a very good start.

Windows Vista 和 2007 Microsoft Office System 將產生多年的影響，兩者都有一個很好的開端。

Revenue growth in the third quarter was 32%.

第三季度收入增長32%。

And even if you were to exclude the $1.7 billion in recognition of previously deferred revenue, associated predominately with our Technology Guarantee Programs for Windows and Office, our revenue growth would have been an extremely good 17%.

而且，即使您排除之前確認的 17 億美元遞延收入（主要與我們的 Windows 和 Office 技術保證計劃相關），我們的收入增長也將達到 17% 的極好。

Four of our five businesses delivered double-digit growth.

我們五項業務中有四項實現了兩位數的增長。

And we saw forward strength across all customer segments and channels.

我們在所有客戶群和渠道中都看到了前進的力量。

Excluding $0.01 in legal charges and a $0.02 tax benefit in the quarter, the revenue upside flows through the operating income and earnings per share, which came in at $0.03 to $0.04 higher than our guidance in January.

不計本季度 0.01 美元的法律費用和 0.02 美元的稅收優惠，收入的增長來自營業收入和每股收益，比我們 1 月份的指導高出 0.03 美元至 0.04 美元。

Cash flow from operations was also over $7 billion, indicative of the underlying strength of our business, and was a record for the Company.

運營現金流也超過 70 億美元，顯示了我們業務的潛在實力，並且是公司的記錄。

Lastly, we continue to execute on our financial strategy.

最後，我們繼續執行我們的財務戰略。

During the quarter we repurchased over $6.7 billion in Company stock, and paid out just under $1 billion in dividend.

在本季度，我們回購了超過 67 億美元的公司股票，並支付了略低於 10 億美元的股息。

This brings combined year-to-date repurchases and dividends to over $22.5 billion, which represents over 150% of our cash flow from operations over that same period.

這使年初至今的回購和股息合計超過 225 億美元，占我們同期運營現金流的 150% 以上。

Moving now to the full fiscal year, we expect a strong finish to what has been an excellent year.

現在進入整個財政年度，我們預計這一出色的一年將有一個強勁的收尾。

We are increasing our revenue, operating income and earnings per share guidance for the year on the strength of our new product launches.

憑藉我們新產品的推出，我們正在增加今年的收入、營業收入和每股收益指引。

Excluding certain legal charges and tax benefits in the prior and current years, we expect revenue growth in excess of 15%, and earnings per share growth in excess of 16%.

排除過去和當年的某些法律費用和稅收優惠，我們預計收入增長超過 15%，每股收益增長超過 16%。

For both high level themes for the quarter and for the full year 2007, I'm going to turn the call over to Colleen for more details on our third quarter performance.

對於本季度和 2007 年全年的高級別主題，我將把電話轉給科琳，以獲取有關我們第三季度業績的更多詳細信息。

As Chris mentioned, the results for Q3 were excellent.

正如 Chris 所說，第三季度的結果非常好。

Let me provide you with details on our financial performance, starting with revenue.

讓我為您提供有關我們財務業績的詳細信息，從收入開始。

I will discuss topline financial and business momentum points, and then follow-up with revenue performance for each of the business units.

我將討論主要財務和業務動力點，然後跟進每個業務部門的收入表現。

All growth comparisons I mention relate to the comparable quarter of last year, unless otherwise specified.

除非另有說明，否則我提到的所有增長比較都與去年的可比季度有關。

Revenue for the quarter grew 32% to $14.4 billion, which includes $1.7 billion in recognition primarily from Technology Guarantee Program.

本季度收入增長 32% 至 144 億美元，其中包括主要來自技術保證計劃的 17 億美元。

Excluding the recognition of these deferrals, revenue growth would have been 17%.

如果不計入這些延期，收入增長將達到 17%。

Growth this quarter was driven by sales in our Client and Microsoft Business Division, following the general availability of Windows Vista, and the 2007 Microsoft Office System in January.

在 Windows Vista 和 2007 年 Microsoft Office System 於 1 月全面上市之後，本季度的增長受到我們客戶和 Microsoft 業務部門的銷售的推動。

And Server and Tools had another solid quarter.

服務器和工具有另一個穩定的季度。

These three core businesses turned in notable performance, each growing at a double-digit rate, and collectively growing revenues 22%, or over $2 billion in absolute growth before the recognition of the Tech Guarantees.

這三個核心業務取得了顯著的業績，每個業務都以兩位數的速度增長，收入合計增長 22%，即在承認技術保證之前絕對增長超過 20 億美元。

We saw continued strength in the underlying PC hardware market, which we estimate grew 10 to 12% during the quarter, a bit faster than we had expected.

我們看到基礎 PC 硬件市場持續走強，我們估計本季度增長 10% 至 12%，略快於我們的預期。

Growth in emerging markets continues to outpace that of mature markets, and the consumer PC shipment growth outpaced business shipments.

新興市場的增長繼續超過成熟市場，消費 PC 出貨量增長超過商業出貨量。

Europe, Asia, excluding Japan and Latin America, maintained double-digit growth rates, while the remaining regions grew at single digits.

歐洲、亞洲（不包括日本和拉丁美洲）保持兩位數增長，其餘地區均保持個位數增長。

Our mix of product billings for the quarter was approximately 30% from OEMs, over 25% from multiyear licensing agreements, over 20% from license only sales, and the balance from our other businesses.

我們本季度的產品賬單組合約為 30% 來自 OEM，超過 25% 來自多年許可協議，超過 20% 來自僅許可銷售，其餘來自我們的其他業務。

The mix this quarter versus the same period in the prior year is higher in license only sales, primarily due to retail sales following the consumer launches of Windows Vista and the 2007 Microsoft Office System, and lower in our other businesses due to our core product making up a higher mix of revenue this quarter, as you would expect given where we are in our various product lifecycles.

本季度與去年同期相比，僅許可證銷售額較高，主要是由於 Windows Vista 和 2007 Microsoft Office System 面向消費者推出後的零售額，而由於我們的核心產品製造，我們的其他業務較低鑑於我們在各種產品生命週期中所處的位置，本季度的收入組合增加了，正如您所期望的那樣。

Our field salesforce saw broad strength across our customer segments and regions.

我們的現場銷售人員在我們的客戶群和地區看到了廣泛的實力。

Our small, midmarket and retail sales group actively engaged with our customers and partners, readying the market for the product launches.

我們的中小型市場和零售銷售團隊積極與我們的客戶和合作夥伴互動，為產品推出市場做好準備。

And the entertainment salesforce drove robust volume license sales, and entertainment and enterprise agreements renewal rates at the high-end of our historical range of 66 to 75%.

娛樂銷售人員推動了強勁的批量許可銷售，娛樂和企業協議續訂率處於我們歷史範圍 66% 至 75% 的高端。

We are delighted that the benefits and value proposition offered in the recent releases of our flagship product are resonating with customers.

我們很高興我們最近發布的旗艦產品所提供的好處和價值主張能引起客戶的共鳴。

As a result of a strong annuity licensing results, our unearned revenue balance ended the quarter at $10.3 billion, up 16% over the same period in the prior year.

由於年金許可業績強勁，本季度末我們的未實現收入餘額為 103 億美元，比去年同期增長 16%。

Our contracted not billed balance at the end of March was sequentially higher, and continues to exceed $9.5 billion.

我們在 3 月底的合同未開票餘額環比上升，並繼續超過 95 億美元。

Taking into account reported revenue and changes in the unearned and contracted not billed balances, bookings growth totaled 20%, with bookings in our core business of Client, Microsoft Business Division and Server and Tools growing 25%.

考慮到報告的收入以及未實現和未開票餘額的變化，預訂量增長總計 20%，我們核心業務客戶、微軟業務部門和服務器和工具的預訂量增長了 25%。

Before closing out the revenue overview, let me add that changes in foreign exchange rates added about 2 percentage points to our overall revenue growth rate in the quarter, and was generally in line with our expectations going into the quarter.

在結束收入概覽之前，讓我補充一點，外匯匯率的變化為我們本季度的整體收入增長率增加了約 2 個百分點，並且總體上符合我們進入本季度的預期。

Now I will provide revenue highlights by business segment.

現在我將按業務部門提供收入亮點。

Client revenue of $5.3 billion, an increase of 67%, includes the recognition of $1.2 billion from Tech Guarantees and preshipment.

客戶收入為 53 億美元，增長 67%，其中包括從技術擔保和裝運前確認的 12 億美元。

Adjusting for this impact, Client revenue would have been $4.1 billion, up 30%, driven by growth in all channels due to the successful consumer launches of Windows Vista during the quarter.

調整這一影響後，客戶收入將達到 41 億美元，增長 30%，這得益於本季度 Windows Vista 的成功面向消費者推出的所有渠道的增長。

OEM revenue increased 24%, excluding the recognition of the Tech Guarantee deferrals, driven by 20% growth in OEM license units.

OEM 收入增長 24%，不包括技術保證延期的確認，受 OEM 許可單位增長 20% 的推動。

The 8 to 10% point difference between OEM license unit growth and the overall PC market growth during the quarter is a result of a normal spike in license sales on the launch of a new operating system in our system builder channel, restocking of retail inventory levels by OEMs as a result of the consumer launch, and continued progress on unlicensed PCs under our existing program.

本季度 OEM 許可單位增長與整體 PC 市場增長之間存在 8% 至 10% 的差異，這是由於在我們的系統構建商渠道推出新操作系統、補充零售庫存水平後許可銷售正常飆升的結果OEM 廠商推出的消費者產品，以及我們現有計劃下未經許可的 PC 的持續進展。

Consistent with the results we saw last quarter and the relative strength in the Consumer segment following the launch, we continue to see a change within the mix of sales of our Premium Edition operating system.

與我們上個季度看到的結果以及推出後消費者部門的相對實力一致，我們繼續看到我們的高級版操作系統的銷售組合發生了變化。

OEM Premium mix was 71%, an increase of 18 percentage points from the prior year, driven by sales of Windows Vista Home Premium, while our other business editions of Windows declined a few points in the overall mix.

在 Windows Vista Home Premium 銷售的推動下，OEM 高級版組合為 71%，比上一年增加了 18 個百分點，而我們的其他 Windows 商業版在整體組合中下降了幾個百分點。

As we shared with you previously, Windows Vista business generates over five times the pricing [up less] of our Windows Vista Home Basic and of Windows Vista Home Premium.

正如我們之前與您分享的那樣，Windows Vista 業務的定價是我們的 Windows Vista Home Basic 和 Windows Vista Home Premium 的五倍多。

So the net result is that the increase in Premium mix added about 1 percentage point of growth to OEM revenue.

因此，最終結果是高級組合的增加為 OEM 收入增加了約 1 個百分點的增長。

Client, commercial and retail licensing grew 63%, excluding the recognition of prelaunch revenue deferrals, driven by strong sales to the retail channel following the consumer launch of Windows Vista and a very healthy commercial business.

客戶、商業和零售許可增長了 63%，這不包括對發布前收入遞延的確認，這是由於消費者推出 Windows Vista 後零售渠道的強勁銷售和非常健康的商業業務。

Server and Tools revenue of $2.7 billion grew 15%, primarily driven by double-digit growth in Windows Server, SQL Server and Visual Studio, as well as growth in our consulting and premier services.

服務器和工具收入增長 15%，達到 27 億美元，這主要得益於 Windows Server、SQL Server 和 Visual Studio 的兩位數增長，以及我們的諮詢和優質服務的增長。

Also, during the quarter we launched Systems Center Operations Manager 2007, which provides end-to-end management for the monitoring and reporting of Windows environments.

此外，在本季度，我們推出了 Systems Center Operations Manager 2007，它為 Windows 環境的監控和報告提供端到端管理。

In our Online Services Business we saw continued improvement in our advertising platform monetization, which resulted in advertising revenue growth of 23%.

在我們的在線服務業務中，我們看到我們的廣告平台貨幣化持續改善，導致廣告收入增長 23%。

Revenue for our Online Services Business overall increased 11% to $6.2 million, driven by the growth in advertising revenue, partially offset by an expected decline in access revenue.

在廣告收入增長的推動下，我們在線服務業務的整體收入增長了 11% 至 620 萬美元，但部分被訪問收入的預期下降所抵消。

Search revenue benefited from a higher number of search queries, and increased revenue per search on both a year-on-year and consequential basis.

搜索收入受益於搜索查詢數量的增加，以及每次搜索收入的同比增長和相應增長。

We are now monetizing more effectively in the U.S.

我們現在在美國更有效地獲利。

on our own Accessor platform than we had under third-party overture at this time last year.

在我們自己的 Accessor 平台上，比去年這個時候在第三方的提議下。

Our display growth was in line with what is a healthy market, driven by an increase in page views.

在頁面瀏覽量增加的推動下，我們的顯示增長與健康的市場一致。

This quarter we forged content partnerships with Newscorp, NBC and CBS to enhance MSN's premium video inventory.

本季度，我們與 Newscorp、NBC 和 CBS 建立了內容合作夥伴關係，以增強 MSN 的優質視頻庫存。

Microsoft Business Solutions revenue of $4.8 billion grew 34%, or 20% after adjusting for the Tech Guarantee.

微軟商業解決方案收入為 48 億美元，在調整技術保證後增長 34% 或 20%。

Growth was driven by both consumer and business sales of the 2007 Microsoft Office System following the recent launches.

近期發布後，2007 Microsoft Office System 的消費者和企業銷售均推動了增長。

The performance for the quarter was highlighted by a strong consumer response to the 2007 Microsoft Office System, which drove better than expected retail sales.

消費者對 2007 年 Microsoft Office System 的強烈反應突顯了本季度的業績，該系統推動了好於預期的零售銷售。

We are also pleased with the results of our Dynamics business which showed healthy performance across both the ERP and CRM productlines, driving a 20% increase in customer billing.

我們也對我們的 Dynamics 業務的結果感到滿意，它在 ERP 和 CRM 產品線中都表現出健康的表現，推動了 20% 的客戶賬單增長。

During the quarter we announced plans to acquire Tellme Network, bringing this industry-leading expertise and voice services to our existing speech platform and unified communications offering.

在本季度，我們宣布了收購 Tellme Network 的計劃，將這一行業領先的專業知識和語音服務帶入我們現有的語音平台和統一通信產品中。

Consistent with our guidance, Entertainment and Devices revenue decreased 21% as a result of lower Xbox 360 sales.

與我們的指導一致，由於 Xbox 360 銷量下降，娛樂和設備收入下降了 21%。

We sold over 500,000 Xbox 360 consoles during the quarter, bringing our life to date sell-in to approximately $11 million.

我們在本季度售出了超過 500,000 台 Xbox 360 遊戲機，使我們迄今為止的銷售額達到約 1100 萬美元。

Software and accessory attach rates remain at record levels in the U.S.

美國的軟件和附件附加率保持在創紀錄水平

per [NTV], and we have passed the 6 million member mark for Xbox Live.

根據 [NTV]，我們已經超過了 Xbox Live 的 600 萬會員。

Our Mobile and Embedded Devices business continued to turn in strong performance, with revenue growth in excess of 30%.

我們的移動和嵌入式設備業務繼續表現強勁，收入增長超過 30%。

During the quarter we unveiled Windows Mobile 6, the next version of our Windows Mobile software platform.

在本季度，我們推出了 Windows Mobile 6，這是我們 Windows Mobile 軟件平台的下一個版本。

We expect to see an increasing number of Windows Mobile 6 power devices coming to market through the rest of this year.

我們預計將在今年剩餘時間內看到越來越多的 Windows Mobile 6 電源設備進入市場。

Now for the rest of the income statement.

現在是損益表的其餘部分。

Cost of revenue increased 6%, primarily driven by data center cost, product costs associated with the launch of Windows Vista, and the growth in consulting services, partially offset by a decline in Xbox 360 consul sales.

收入成本增長 6%，主要受數據中心成本、與 Windows Vista 推出相關的產品成本以及諮詢服務增長的推動，部分被 Xbox 360 consul 銷售的下降所抵消。

Other operating expenses increased $928 million, or 20%, excluding legal charges of $154 million in the current quarter and $397 million in the same quarter from the prior year.

其他運營費用增加了 9.28 億美元，即 20%，其中不包括本季度 1.54 億美元的法律費用和上年同期的 3.97 億美元的法律費用。

This is favorable to our expectations, due primarily to shifting some marketing and product development costs into the fourth quarter.

這有利於我們的預期，主要是因為將一些營銷和產品開發成本轉移到了第四季度。

Operating income of $6.6 billion, or $5.1 billion after adjusting for the impact of the Tech Guarantee deferrals and legal charges, is up 18% from the prior year, driven by the 22% revenue growth in our core businesses of Client, Microsoft Business Division, and Server and Tools.

營業收入為 66 億美元，即在對技術保證延期和法律費用的影響進行調整後的 51 億美元，比上一年增長 18%，這得益於我們的核心業務客戶、微軟業務部門、和服務器和工具。

Investment income and other totaled $382 million for the quarter.

本季度的投資收入和其他收入總計 3.82 億美元。

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 29%, and was lower than expected due to a $195 million onetime tax benefit.

我們本季度的有效稅率為 29%，由於一次性稅收優惠 1.95 億美元，低於預期。

Cash flow from operations increased 60% to $7.3 billion.

運營現金流增加 60% 至 73 億美元。

During the quarter we repurchased 237 million shares, or $6.7 billion of Company stock, and paid out $976 million in dividends to shareholders.

在本季度，我們回購了 2.37 億股股票，即 67 億美元的公司股票，並向股東支付了 9.76 億美元的股息。

Diluted shares outstanding for the quarter were 9.9 billion, down 5% from the prior year as a result of execution against our share repurchase program.

由於執行了我們的股票回購計劃，本季度的稀釋流通股為 99 億股，比去年同期下降 5%。

Earnings per share for the quarter were $0.50, which includes the following non-recurring items -- $0.12 related to the impact of the Tech Guarantees, a tax benefit of $0.02 offset by $0.01 in legal charges.

本季度每股收益為 0.50 美元，其中包括以下非經常性項目——與技術保證的影響相關的 0.12 美元，0.02 美元的稅收優惠被 0.01 美元的法律費用抵消。

So in summary, the third quarter broadly exceeded our expectations, driven by the extremely positive consumer response to the launches of our flagship products.

因此，總而言之，由於消費者對我們旗艦產品的推出反應極為積極，第三季度總體上超出了我們的預期。

With that, let me now turn it back to Chris, who will now provide you with our expectations for the fourth quarter and a preliminary outlook for fiscal year 2008.

有了這個，現在讓我把話題轉回克里斯，他現在將為您提供我們對第四季度的預期和 2008 財年的初步展望。

Let me now outline some key assumptions that we have used in putting together the outlook for the fourth quarter.

現在讓我概述一下我們在匯總第四季度前景時使用的一些關鍵假設。

Firstly, we estimate that PC unit growth for the quarter will be 10 to 12%.

首先，我們估計本季度 PC 單位增長將在 10% 到 12% 之間。

Within the overall PC market we expect current trends to continue, with a consumer segment growth exceeding that of the business segment, and emerging market growth exceeding that of mature markets.

在整個 PC 市場中，我們預計當前趨勢將繼續下去，消費領域的增長將超過業務領域，新興市場的增長將超過成熟市場。

In contrast, third-party analysts have lowered their full year server hardware growth estimate to 4 to 6%.

相比之下，第三方分析師已將全年服務器硬件增長預期下調至 4% 至 6%。

And although Server and Tools revenue is impacted by many additional factors, we have incorporated that into our guidance.

儘管服務器和工具收入受到許多其他因素的影響，但我們已將其納入我們的指導。

Lastly, our guidance for the fourth quarter assumes that changes in foreign exchange rates will not have a significant impact on revenue growth rates for the quarter.

最後，我們對第四季度的指導假設外匯匯率的變化不會對該季度的收入增長率產生重大影響。

So now for our detailed guidance.

因此，現在為我們提供詳細的指導。

We expect fourth quarter revenue of $13.1 billion to $13.4 billion, growing 11 to 14%.

我們預計第四季度收入為 131 億美元至 134 億美元，增長 11% 至 14%。

Revenue guidance by business group is largely consistent with what we provided in January.

業務集團的收入指引與我們 1 月份提供的基本一致。

And so in the interested time I will simply provide you with the numbers.

因此，有興趣的時候，我會簡單地為您提供數字。

For Client we expect revenue growth of 14 to 15% for the fourth quarter.

對於客戶，我們預計第四季度收入增長 14% 至 15%。

For Server and Tools, 16 to 17%.

對於服務器和工具，16% 到 17%。

For Online Services, 10 to 15%.

對於在線服務，10% 到 15%。

Although excluding Access subscription and transactions revenue, this implies advertising growth of 19 to 27%.

儘管不包括 Access 訂閱和交易收入，但這意味著廣告增長 19% 至 27%。

For Microsoft Business Division, 13 to 14%.

對於微軟業務部門，13% 到 14%。

And finally, Entertainment and Devices revenue is expected to be down 2% to 11% in the fourth quarter.

最後，娛樂和設備收入預計將在第四季度下降 2% 至 11%。

Now moving on to operating income.

現在轉向營業收入。

For the fourth quarter we expect to generate between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion of operating income, representing 28% to 33% growth over the prior year.

對於第四季度，我們預計將產生 50 億至 52 億美元的營業收入，比上年增長 28% 至 33%。

Well, 17 to 22% when legal charges of $351 million from the year ago quarter are excluded.

好吧，如果不包括去年同期 3.51 億美元的法律費用，則為 17% 到 22%。

This was lower than the implied guidance from January due primarily to two factors.

由於兩個因素，這低於 1 月份的隱含指導。

The first is a shift in operating expenses from the third quarter, as our full year total remains consistent with what we said in January.

首先是第三季度運營費用的變化，因為我們全年的總額與我們在一月份所說的保持一致。

The second is higher COGS related to Xbox consul and Windows Vista retail sales.

第二個是與 Xbox consul 和 Windows Vista 零售相關的更高 COGS。

We now estimate a fourth quarter effective tax rate of 31.5% due to a greater mix of forecasted earnings in higher tax rate jurisdictions.

我們現在估計第四季度的有效稅率為 31.5%，原因是高稅率轄區的預測收益組合更大。

For diluted earnings per share we expect $0.37 to $0.39 for the fourth quarter.

對於稀釋後的每股收益，我們預計第四季度為 0.37 至 0.39 美元。

So with that fourth quarter guidance we arrive at the following expectations for the fiscal year.

因此，根據第四季度的指導，我們得出了對本財年的以下預期。

Revenue between $50.9 billion and $51.2 billion, representing growth of 15 to 16%.

收入在 509 億美元至 512 億美元之間，增長 15% 至 16%。

Operating income of $19.5 billion to $19.7 million, or excluding certain legal charges, $19.7 billion to $19.9 billion, representing growth of 12 to 13%.

營業收入為 195 億美元至 1970 萬美元，或不包括某些法律費用，為 197 億美元至 199 億美元，增長 12% 至 13%。

And for fully diluted earnings per share of $1.48 to $1.50.

每股完全攤薄收益為 1.48 美元至 1.50 美元。

Or adjusting for certain legal charges and tax benefits, $1.47 to $1.49, and representing growth of 16 to 17%.

或調整某些法律費用和稅收優惠，從 1.47 美元到 1.49 美元，增長 16% 到 17%。

We are clearly pleased that our strong performance in Q3 has allowed us to raise our revenue, operating income and earnings per share estimates for the full year.

我們很高興第三季度的強勁表現使我們能夠提高全年的收入、營業收入和每股收益預期。

From a balance sheet perspective, we expect unearned revenue to finish the year up 8 to 10%, an increase of 2 percentage points from our January guidance.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們預計全年未實現收入將增長 8% 至 10%，比我們 1 月份的指引增加 2 個百分點。

This increase reflects our growing confidence in multiyear contract billings in Q4, where the revenue opportunity, and undoubtedly risk, is the largest we have seen in two years.

這一增長反映了我們對第四季度多年合同賬單日益增長的信心，其中收入機會，無疑是風險，是我們兩年來看到的最大的。

The deal pipeline is robust.

交易渠道穩健。

The value proposition for multiyear contracts are strong.

多年合同的價值主張很強。

And the product portfolio is broad and deep.

產品組合廣泛而深入。

With that, let's turn to our fiscal year '08 preliminary outlook.

有了這個，讓我們轉向我們的 08 財年初步展望。

As is always the case at this time of year, we are providing you with our first look at the next fiscal year prior to finalizing our internal budgeting and planning process.

與每年這個時候的情況一樣，在最終確定內部預算和計劃流程之前，我們會為您提供下一個財政年度的初步了解。

Reflecting where we are in the planning cycle and consistent with our past practice, we're not currently in a position to give specific business group detail.

反映我們在規劃週期中的位置並與我們過去的做法一致，我們目前無法提供特定業務組的詳細信息。

I should also highlight that this guidance provides you with a view that balances both the risks and opportunities as we currently see them.

我還應該強調，本指南為您提供了一種平衡我們目前看到的風險和機遇的觀點。

For context, our expectations are based on a stable IT spending environment.

就上下文而言，我們的預期是基於穩定的 IT 支出環境。

2007 IT spending has been generally healthy.

2007 年的 IT 支出總體上是健康的。

And although we may see softening in select areas, such as server hardware growth, we're not expecting any significant changes on a regional basis in fiscal 2008.

雖然我們可能會看到某些領域的疲軟，例如服務器硬件的增長，但我們預計 2008 財年的地區性不會有任何重大變化。

Also, we're not modeling any significant impact to year-over-year revenue growth from changes in foreign exchange rates.

此外，我們沒有模擬外匯匯率變化對收入同比增長的任何重大影響。

The continuous product innovation we have been stressing for two years is driving our expected growth.

我們兩年來一直強調的持續產品創新正在推動我們的預期增長。

And our product cycle continues in the next 12 months with the launches of, for example, Longhorn Server, the next version of our CRM software and live CRM service, Halo 3, the next version of Visual Studio, new Windows Live Search and communication services, office communications server, Expression Studio, Office Performance Point Server, Forefront Client Security, and many other products and services from across the Company.

我們的產品週期將在接下來的 12 個月內繼續推出，例如，Longhorn Server、下一個版本的 CRM 軟件和實時 CRM 服務、Halo 3、下一個版本的 Visual Studio、新的 Windows Live 搜索和通信服務、辦公通信服務器、Expression Studio、Office Performance Point Server、Forefront Client Security 以及來自整個公司的許多其他產品和服務。

We expect our productline ought to generate revenue of $56.5 billion to $57.5 billion in fiscal '08, representing growth of 11 to 12%.

我們預計我們的產品線在 08 財年應能產生 565 億至 575 億美元的收入，增長 11% 至 12%。

On an absolute basis this translates into an increase of over $5.5 billion, an amount larger than the total annual revenue of some Fortune 500 companies.

按絕對值計算，這意味著增加了超過 55 億美元，超過了一些財富 500 強公司的年總收入。

As we have previewed with you since October, this guidance reflects the requirements for Windows Vista revenue recognition, which results in a relatively faster revenue recognition as compared to Windows XP, where we have stood at 5 to do 25% of license revenue.

正如我們自 10 月以來與您一起預覽的那樣，該指南反映了 Windows Vista 收入確認的要求，與 Windows XP 相比，這導致了相對更快的收入確認，在 Windows XP 中，我們的許可證收入為 5%，佔許可證收入的 25%。

We are committed to transparency on this, so I would like to provide you with our revenue guidance adjusted for the impact of Windows Vista revenue recognition.

我們致力於在這方面保持透明度，因此我想為您提供根據 Windows Vista 收入確認影響調整的收入指導。

We have included slide 20 in our earnings slide deck, which provide you with detail on the associated underlying balance sheet and P&L adjustments.

我們在收益幻燈片中包含了幻燈片 20，它為您提供了相關基礎資產負債表和損益調整的詳細信息。

Had we never deferred from delivered elements on Windows XP sales, our expected accounting revenue would be approximately $220 million lower in fiscal '07, and $660 million lower in fiscal '08.

如果我們從未推遲交付 Windows XP 銷售的元素，我們的預期會計收入將在 07 財年減少約 2.2 億美元，在 08 財年減少 6.6 億美元。

These figures represent the near annual amount of revenue we expect to recognize from the undelivered elements account on the balance sheet.

這些數字代表了我們預計從資產負債表上未交付的元素賬戶中確認的接近年度收入。

From a year-over-year growth perspective, this impact represents approximately 0.5 percentage point of consolidated corporate revenue growth in fiscal '07, and approximately 1 percentage point of consolidated corporate revenue growth in fiscal '08.

從同比增長的角度來看，這種影響佔 07 財年合併公司收入增長的約 0.5 個百分點，佔 08 財年合併公司收入增長的約 1 個百分點。

Applied specifically to the Client business in fiscal '08, we expect a 3 percentage point impact in year-over-year Client revenue growth as a result of the Windows Vista revenue recognition methodology.

特別適用於 08 財年的客戶業務，我們預計由於 Windows Vista 收入確認方法，客戶收入同比增長將產生 3 個百分點的影響。

Of course, the magnitude of revenue impact varies with the underlying sales mix between Windows Vista and Windows XP, our fiscal '08 guidance numbers assume a unit mix of 85% Windows Vista, and 15% Windows XP.

當然，收入影響的大小因 Windows Vista 和 Windows XP 之間的基本銷售組合而異，我們的 08 財年指導數字假設單位組合為 85% 的 Windows Vista 和 15% 的 Windows XP。

The amount of impact we have highlighted today could differ materially to the extent that transition to Windows Vista from Windows XP differs from our forecast.

我們今天強調的影響程度可能會因從 Windows XP 到 Windows Vista 的過渡與我們的預測不同而存在重大差異。

In other words, the faster the transition to Windows Vista, the bigger and more positive the impact will be in fiscal '08.

換言之，越快過渡到 Windows Vista，對 08 財年的影響就越大、越積極。

While on the subject of Client revenue, we recognize there's a lot of interest in our outlook for fiscal '08.

在客戶收入的主題上，我們認識到我們對 08 財年的前景很感興趣。

Although we won't be providing specific Client business guidance on the call today, I would like to briefly provide you with some directional expectations.

儘管我們不會在今天的電話會議上提供具體的客戶業務指導，但我想簡要地向您提供一些方向性的期望。

For your convenience, we have laid these out for you on slide 21 of our earnings slide deck.

為方便起見，我們在收益幻燈片的幻燈片 21 上為您列出了這些內容。

The starting point for any analysis in our Client business should begin with PC sales in mature markets, which we expect to grow in mid single digit range.

對我們的客戶業務進行任何分析的起點都應該從成熟市場的 PC 銷售開始，我們預計其將在中個位數範圍內增長。

We expect to get a modest uplift from emerging markets, where the underlying market growth is higher, and we have the opportunity to reduce piracy.

我們預計新興市場會出現適度的增長，這些市場的潛在市場增長較高，我們有機會減少盜版。

Offsetting this uplift is the successful launch of Windows Vista in 2007, which creates a difficult retail comp in fiscal '08.

抵消這一提升的是 2007 年成功推出的 Windows Vista，這在 08 財年創造了艱難的零售競爭。

Adding these together, our expectation is that Client organic revenue growth in fiscal '08 will be in line with, or slightly better than, the mid single digit growth rate for PC sales in mature markets.

將這些加在一起，我們預計 08 財年的客戶有機收入增長將與成熟市場 PC 銷售的中個位數增長率持平或略好。

And that Client GAAP revenue growth will be 3 percentage points higher than the organic growth rate, due to Windows Vista revenue recognition methodology.

由於 Windows Vista 收入確認方法，該客戶 GAAP 收入增長將比有機增長率高 3 個百分點。

We will provide our specific Client revenue guidance for fiscal '08 in July, but I hope this provide you with some insight into how we're thinking about our forecast, and assist you with your modeling.

我們將在 7 月提供 08 財年的具體客戶收入指導，但我希望這能讓您了解我們如何考慮我們的預測，並幫助您進行建模。

Now moving on to operating income.

現在轉向營業收入。

Operating income is expected to be between $22.0 billion and $22.5 billion.

營業收入預計在 220 億美元至 225 億美元之間。

Excluding certain legal charges in fiscal '07, operating income growth of 12 to 14% is slightly faster than revenue growth.

剔除 07 財年的某些法律費用，營業收入增長 12% 至 14% 略快於收入增長。

This guidance implies incremental year-over-year COGS, plus OpEx spending of between $3.3 billion and $3.6 billion, when you exclude legal charges in fiscal '07.

當您排除 07 財年的法律費用時，該指導意味著 COGS 同比增加，OpEx 支出在 33 億美元至 36 億美元之間。

Of these amounts, somewhat less than $2.7 billion is operating expenses, which is consistent with our commentary at the February analyst meeting in New York.

在這些金額中，運營費用略低於 27 億美元，這與我們在 2 月份紐約分析師會議上的評論一致。

I would like to take time here to provide you with some of the key drivers behind our COGS and OpEx spending in fiscal '08.

我想在這里花時間為您提供 08 財年我們的 COGS 和 OpEx 支出背後的一些關鍵驅動因素。

First, let's cover COGS.

首先，讓我們介紹一下 COGS。

Incremental COGS spending will be in excess of $600 million, driven primarily by two factors.

增加的銷貨成本支出將超過 6 億美元，主要受兩個因素驅動。

One, network infrastructure costs and delivering Online Services such as Windows Live, Office Live, CRM Live and Xbox Live.

一，網絡基礎設施成本和提供在線服務，如 Windows Live、Office Live、CRM Live 和 Xbox Live。

And, two, increased scale of our consultant services business.

第二，我們的顧問服務業務規模擴大。

Higher overall revenues and greater unit sales of Zune and Xbox 360 will have some impact as well.

Zune 和 Xbox 360 更高的整體收入和更大的單位銷售額也會產生一些影響。

In terms of incremental operating expenses, I would like to describe the underlying drivers using the same four categories we used for fiscal '07.

在增量運營費用方面，我想使用我們在 07 財年使用的相同四個類別來描述潛在的驅動因素。

The largest category remains our broad array of investments in high growth areas.

最大的類別仍然是我們在高增長領域的廣泛投資。

As we continue to stress, innovation drives long-term growth, and we intend to continue to invest in the best opportunities.

正如我們繼續強調的那樣，創新推動了長期增長，我們打算繼續投資於最好的機會。

This makes up over one-third of the incremental OpEx in fiscal '08.

這佔 08 財年增量運營支出的三分之一以上。

The second largest category is our investment in Services, which makes up about one-quarter of the incremental OpEx in the business.

第二大類別是我們對服務的投資，約佔業務增量運營支出的四分之一。

The Online Services area is also critical to our future success, and we have built up an appropriate level of potential future investment that reflects our current thinking.

在線服務領域對我們未來的成功也至關重要，我們已經建立了反映我們當前想法的適當水平的潛在未來投資。

The third category is marketing and field sales costs, which makes up about 25% of the total.

第三類是營銷和現場銷售成本，約佔總成本的25%。

The remainder of the incremental operating expenses are driven by general increases in costs, as well as unallocated spending related to small acquisitions that we may do during the year.

其餘的增量運營費用是由成本的普遍增加以及與我們可能在年內進行的小型收購相關的未分配支出推動的。

Now for the rest of the income statement.

現在是損益表的其餘部分。

We expect investment income to be lower in fiscal '08 due to lower cash balances resulting from our stock repurchases in fiscal '07.

由於我們在 07 財年的股票回購導致現金餘額減少，我們預計 08 財年的投資收益會降低。

We're also modeling a 30.5% tax rate in fiscal '08, driven by a higher mix of earnings in lower tax rate jurisdictions.

我們還在 08 財年模擬了 30.5% 的稅率，這是由較低稅率管轄區的較高收入組合推動的。

Our forecast for fully diluted earnings per share is therefore $1.68 to $1.72, representing growth of 14 to 15%, excluding legal charges and tax benefits in fiscal '07.

因此，我們對完全攤薄後每股收益的預測為 1.68 美元至 1.72 美元，增長 14% 至 15%，不包括 07 財年的法律費用和稅收優惠。

Similar to fiscal '07, we expect to grow earnings this year at a rate faster than revenue and operating income.

與 07 財年類似，我們預計今年的收益增長速度將超過收入和營業收入。

As always, I will remind you that as you think about the guidance we have provided you, also consider the risks.

與往常一樣，我會提醒您，在考慮我們為您提供的指導時，還要考慮風險。

Those risks include competitive, legal, execution and general market risks, as well as PC and Turbo hardware growth rates and customer acceptance of our product.

這些風險包括競爭、法律、執行和一般市場風險，以及 PC 和 Turbo 硬件增長率和客戶對我們產品的接受度。

Also, our emerging businesses are harder to forecast when compared to our mature businesses.

此外，與我們的成熟業務相比，我們的新興業務更難預測。

As they become a lighter part of the overall financial mix, they may contribute to increased volatility in our performance.

隨著它們成為整體財務組合中較輕的一部分，它們可能會導致我們業績的波動性增加。

I would like to wrap up today with two final and brief observations.

我想以兩個最後和簡短的意見來結束今天。

The first is that if we take a step back and look at the results we have delivered, as well as the guidance provided for fiscal '08, you find that we're going revenue, profits and earnings per share an impressive rate on both an absolute and relative basis for a company our size.

首先，如果我們退後一步，看看我們已經交付的結果，以及為 08 財年提供的指導，你會發現我們的收入、利潤和每股收益在兩個方面都令人印象深刻。我們規模的公司的絕對和相對基礎。

For example, excluding legal charges and tax benefits, our fiscal '08 guidance implies earnings per share growth of $0.41 to $0.45, or 32 to 35% over two years.

例如，不包括法律費用和稅收優惠，我們的 08 財年指導意味著每股收益在兩年內增長 0.41 美元至 0.45 美元，即 32% 至 35%。

The second observation is that I believe the third quarter results and the guidance we have provided are indicative of how we build long-term shareholder value in the Company.

第二個觀察是，我相信第三季度業績和我們提供的指導表明我們如何在公司建立長期股東價值。

We do so by driving robust revenue growth for our established cores in the desktop and server markets, as well as by building new cores in online services and entertainment.

為此，我們通過為台式機和服務器市場的成熟核心推動強勁的收入增長，以及在在線服務和娛樂領域建立新的核心來實現這一目標。

By translating that revenue growth into strong operating profits and cash flow, allowing us the flexibility to make significant investments to drive future growth.

通過將收入增長轉化為強勁的營業利潤和現金流，使我們能夠靈活地進行重大投資以推動未來的增長。

And finally by returning capital to shareholders through repurchases and dividends.

最後通過回購和分紅向股東返還資本。

We believe this is an optimal model for delivering long-term shareholder value.

我們相信這是實現長期股東價值的最佳模式。

And I'm pleased that our third quarter and our forward-looking outlook reflect our execution against this.

我很高興我們的第三季度和我們的前瞻性展望反映了我們對此的執行。

Thank you for your time today.

謝謝你今天的時間。

And I will now hand the call over to Colleen so we can take your questions.

我現在將把電話轉給科琳，以便我們回答您的問題。

Okay, let's now proceed to questions.

好的，現在讓我們繼續提問。

We want to accommodate questions from as many people as possible, so please avoid multipart questions, and limit yourselves to just one question.

我們希望容納盡可能多的人提出的問題，因此請避免多部分問題，並將自己限制在一個問題上。

Operator, will you please repeat your instructions?

接線員，請您重複一下您的指示好嗎？

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

Heather Bellini, UBS.

瑞銀集團的希瑟·貝里尼。

I actually had a question about the premium mix that you reported.

實際上，我對您報告的優質組合有疑問。

It seems to be coming in much better than what you guys had forecasted prior to Vista launching.

它似乎比你們在 Vista 發布之前所預測的要好得多。

I just wanted to get your sense for how you think this is going to track over time, and should we hold constant this type of Vista premium mix adoption?

我只是想了解一下你認為隨著時間的推移會如何跟踪，我們是否應該保持這種類型的 Vista 高級混合採用不變？

I guess the other question would be in terms of 85, 15 mix that you're forecasting between Vista and XP, how would that have compared to your expectations of what actually happens when XP launched?

我猜另一個問題是您預測的 Vista 和 XP 之間的 85、15 種混合，這與您對 XP 啟動時實際發生的情況的預期相比如何？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

In terms of the premium mix, you're right, it is coming in above our expectations then and are good.

就高級組合而言，您是對的，它當時超出了我們的預期並且很好。

Within that obviously you do have a shift between Pro and what was previously media standard.

顯然，您確實可以在 Pro 和以前的媒體標準之間進行轉換。

There's a mix shift within the mix.

混音中有混音變化。

We think that we are going to see in fiscal year '08 a continuation of the trend that we saw in fiscal year '07.

我們認為我們將在 08 財年看到我們在 07 財年看到的趨勢的延續。

So the numbers from a premium point of view will be broadly the same.

因此，從溢價的角度來看，數字將大致相同。

What we're thinking of doing probably for next year is to start to give you some more visibility into how that premium mix is made up.

我們明年可能正在考慮做的事情是開始讓您更多地了解這種優質組合是如何構成的。

Because, as we have talked about on previous calls, this is quite a different economic impact, depending on in this case whether it is Vista Premium or Vista Business, one being five times the economic benefit relative to the Other.

因為，正如我們在之前的電話會議中談到的那樣，這是一種完全不同的經濟影響，取決於在這種情況下是 Vista Premium 還是 Vista Business，相對於另一個而言，一個是經濟收益的五倍。

So we'll continue to give you the premium mix as we see, which you can think of as being broadly equal to fiscal year '07.

因此，我們將繼續為您提供我們所看到的保費組合，您可以認為它與 07 財年大致相同。

So a lot of the benefit that we are seeing.

我們看到了很多好處。

But will also start to give you some visibility into the split of that premium mix going forward as well.

但也將開始讓您對未來該優質組合的拆分有了一些了解。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

What was the second half of your question?

你問題的後半部分是什麼？

The second question was related to the -- you commented about a 85% Windows Vista mix, 15% XP.

第二個問題與--您評論了85% 的Windows Vista 混合，15% 的XP。

What did you see during the last cycle when XP launched, what was the mix?

在 XP 發布的最後一個週期中，您看到了什麼，混合了什麼？

It is not going to be terribly comparable just because of also the SKUs structure.

僅僅因為 SKU 結構，它不會具有非常大的可比性。

But generally speaking it is faster.

但一般來說它更快。

So 85, 15 that is very healthy.

所以85、15是非常健康的。

Now it obviously may vary on that, and it is going to depend on the consumer versus the business.

現在它顯然可能會有所不同，這將取決於消費者與企業。

Are you forecasting faster adoption of Vista than what you saw for adoption of XP, I guess, is the question?

你預測 Vista 的採用速度是否比 XP 的採用速度更快，我猜，這是問題嗎？

I guess we don't think of it that way.

我想我們不這麼認為。

We don't do a comparison back to that.

我們不會對此進行比較。

But if you look at the math of it, that is likely to be the result.

但如果你看一下它的數學，那很可能就是結果。

What we are looking at is the underlying trends we see in the business relative to Vista, regardless of what might have happened four years ago.

我們正在關注的是我們在業務中看到的與 Vista 相關的潛在趨勢，無論四年前可能發生了什麼。

And as we see the mix in consumer versus business, and as we see the overall growth rates, and as we see the current adoption, we think 85% is a reasonable starting point for next year.

當我們看到消費者與企業的混合，我們看到整體增長率，以及我們看到目前的採用率時，我們認為 85% 是明年的合理起點。

You know, obviously, the variable there that people look to is on the business side.

你知道，很明顯，人們關注的變量是商業方面的。

How quickly they're adopting.

他們採用的速度有多快。

And we feel like because this version, as you'll remember when was in beta was very widely tested, we feel like the tools and costs associated with it and ease of images, we are optimistic.

而且我們覺得因為這個版本，正如你會記得的那樣，在測試版中進行了非常廣泛的測試，我們覺得與它相關的工具和成本以及圖像的易用性，我們是樂觀的。

But we still don't want to get ahead of ourselves.

但我們仍然不想超越自己。

Charlie DiBona, Sanford Bernstein.

查理·迪博納，桑福德·伯恩斯坦。

Chris, you spent a lot of time clarifying client guidance and accounting, but I'm wondering if I could may be changed gears for a second and look at my favorite group, the Online Services group?

克里斯，你花了很多時間來澄清客戶指導和會計，但我想知道我是否可以改變一下，看看我最喜歡的組，在線服務組？

It seems like from your financial results this quarter and from some of the external metrics that you sort of maybe stopped some of the deterioration there.

從你本季度的財務業績和一些外部指標來看，你似乎可以阻止那裡的一些惡化。

And certainly any metrics more that you want to share there would be appreciated.

當然，如果您想在那里分享更多指標，我們將不勝感激。

But going forward now that you have sort of stabilized the patient, can you maybe talk strategically about how you want to get him up off the table and move in the right direction?

但是，既然您已經穩定了患者，您是否可以戰略性地談論您希望如何讓他離開桌面並朝著正確的方向前進？

And maybe also how you're going to build share and community, and how OSG relates in that process to the other business groups, both in building its business and then feeding back into those ones?

也許還有你將如何建立共享和社區，以及 OSG 在該過程中如何與其他業務組相關聯，無論是在建立業務還是反饋給這些業務方面？

There are lots to digest in that one.

有很多東西要消化。

But let me cover the ground, and then get back on the particular aspect.

但是讓我先介紹一下，然後再回到特定的方面。

You're absolutely right.

你是絕對正確的。

From a quarterly point of view this was a much better quarter for OSB.

從季度的角度來看，這對 OSB 來說是一個更好的季度。

If you exclude the access and subscription business, the advertising revenue, which is probably the single best metric to look at in terms of growth year-on-year, was up 23%.

如果排除訪問和訂閱業務，廣告收入增長了 23%，這可能是衡量同比增長的最佳指標。

And if you look at the guidance that we're talking about for next quarter, we're looking at greater than 20% again in the fourth quarter as well.

如果您查看我們正在談論的下一季度的指導，我們在第四季度也再次看到超過 20%。

That is a reflection of a number of factors.

這是多種因素的反映。

One is display growth revenue growing broadly in line with market.

一是顯示增長收入與市場大體一致。

The second is the benefits now (inaudible) are coming onstream.

第二個是現在（聽不清）的好處即將投入使用。

So we have talked with you about this a lot.

所以我們和你談了很多。

And we said that we would lap out previous monetization rate on adCenter at some stage this fiscal year.

我們說我們將在本財年的某個階段超越 adCenter 之前的貨幣化率。

Well, we did that in that third quarter.

好吧，我們在第三季度就做到了。

So we're a little ahead of ourselves.

所以我們有點超前了。

We were expecting more like fourth quarter, but we did that in the third quarter.

我們期待更像第四季度，但我們在第三季度做到了。

So we are ahead of where we were on the Overture platform of a year ago now.

所以我們現在領先於一年前在 Overture 平台上的位置。

And obviously on an appreciating trend.

並且顯然呈升值趨勢。

And when we look at the number of advertisers that we're getting on the platform, we're getting at or above the rates that we were expecting.

當我們查看我們在平台上獲得的廣告客戶數量時，我們獲得的價格達到或高於我們預期的速度。

And with considerably less advertisers on the Overture platform we're getting a higher monetization.

由於 Overture 平台上的廣告商大大減少，我們獲得了更高的盈利能力。

So we're feeling very good about the rates that we are seeing in terms of adCenter overall.

因此，我們對 adCenter 整體的費率感到非常滿意。

And that is feeding through to the revenue growth numbers that you see, if you exclude the access.

如果您排除訪問權限，這會影響您看到的收入增長數字。

And again, we will try quarter by quarter to give you that advertising number to give you a sense of the health of the underlying business.

同樣，我們將逐季嘗試為您提供廣告編號，讓您了解基礎業務的健康狀況。

To your broader question about strategy, from our point of view it is a continuation of what we have talked about, which is we're going to invest in this business because we see it as a long-term one.

對於您關於戰略的更廣泛的問題，從我們的角度來看，這是我們所討論的內容的延續，即我們將投資這項業務，因為我們將其視為一項長期業務。

We certainly -- we liked a lot of the growth that we are getting on the display side.

我們當然 - 我們喜歡我們在展示方面獲得的很多增長。

We are happy with it.

我們對此感到滿意。

On the communication side, you have got the growth in Hotmail and Messenger accounts, which we don't curly monetize to any great extent, but is still extremely healthy.

在通信方面，您的 Hotmail 和 Messenger 帳戶有所增長，我們並沒有在很大程度上利用它們獲利，但仍然非常健康。

And we're very happy with, for example, some of the relevancy in the underlying product in our Search.

例如，我們對搜索中基礎產品的一些相關性感到非常滿意。

We aren't happy, clearly, with the market share we have.

顯然，我們對我們擁有的市場份額並不滿意。

So some things we are happy with, some things that we're not happy with, or I would like to see a lot better.

所以有些事情我們很滿意，有些事情我們不滿意，或者我希望看到更好的東西。

But we are going to continue to invest.

但我們將繼續投資。

We're going to continue to invest in the infrastructure of the business.

我們將繼續投資於業務的基礎設施。

We will continue to invest in new products.

我們將繼續投資於新產品。

We will continue to invest in the Search relevancy side of things.

我們將繼續投資於搜索相關性方面。

And in terms of the infrastructure, that will support not only the online business, but it will support Office Live.

在基礎設施方面，它不僅支持在線業務，還將支持 Office Live。

It will support Xbox Live.

它將支持 Xbox Live。

That is another healthy statistic from our point of view, with greater than 6 million customers now on Xbox Live.

從我們的角度來看，這是另一個健康的統計數據，現在 Xbox Live 上有超過 600 萬客戶。

So that is a very good platform.

所以這是一個非常好的平台。

So the platform will support that area.

因此，該平台將支持該領域。

In terms of accounting to a large extent we bear the costs inside the Online Services area without trying to change accounting around.

在會計方面，我們在很大程度上承擔了在線服務領域內的成本，而不試圖改變會計。

We may try and give you more visibility into how it helps some of the other businesses, but certainly strategically it helps them quite a lot.

我們可能會嘗試讓您更多地了解它如何幫助其他一些企業，但在戰略上它肯定會幫助他們很多。

Adam Holt, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的亞當霍爾特。

My question is about the underlying strength in the Office business or the MBD category.

我的問題是關於 Office 業務或 MBD 類別的潛在優勢。

If you strip out the onetime events in the quarter, it looks like you still had about 20% growth in MBD.

如果剔除本季度的一次性事件，MBD 似乎仍有約 20% 的增長。

I guess what I'm trying to understand is, number one, what was the mix between what came off the balance sheet relative to what was new business?

我想我想了解的是，第一，資產負債表上的內容與新業務之間的混合是什麼？

Number two, understanding there's a little bit of retail spike here, how should we think about the Enterprise business feathering in over the next couple of quarters, particularly in the context of how you compare that to Vista?

第二，了解這裡有一點零售高峰，我們應該如何看待未來幾個季度企業業務的蓬勃發展，特別是在您如何將其與 Vista 進行比較的背景下？

I think it is great.

我覺得這很好。

We tend to get 90% of our questions about Client, and to a large extent the MBD business is a real success story in the third quarter.

我們傾向於得到 90% 的關於客戶的問題，並且在很大程度上 MBD 業務在第三季度是一個真正的成功案例。

We exceeded our revenue expectations by around $200 million.

我們超出了我們的收入預期約 2 億美元。

And that was on the back of, to a large extent just very good retail sales.

這在很大程度上是因為零售銷售非常好。

So sales of units out the door.

於是單位的銷售量就出來了。

We feel like that is a direct customer acceptance of a very good product.

我們覺得這是客戶對非常好的產品的直接認可。

It didn't result from any balance sheet movements.

它不是由任何資產負債表變動引起的。

In fact, we are slightly penalized because of the change in MBD revenue recognition inside that division.

事實上，由於該部門內部 MBD 收入確認的變化，我們受到了輕微的懲罰。

But to a large extent very good customer acceptance, very good retail sales inside the quarter.

但很大程度上客戶接受度非常好，季度內的零售額非常好。

In terms of annuities going forward, which is probably more of the case when you -- obviously we're not going to at this date give you fiscal year '08 numbers, but for the fourth quarter a continuation of very good revenue growth numbers inside that division.

就未來的年金而言，這可能更常見於您 - 顯然我們不會在這個日期為您提供 08 財年的數字，但對於第四季度，內部收入增長數字非常好那個部門。

And embedded inside fiscal year '08 we think the business will continue to do well.

並且嵌入到 08 財年，我們認為該業務將繼續表現良好。

I am happy, very happy with the retail acceptance of the product.

我很高興，對產品的零售接受度非常滿意。

From an annuity point of view and a business point of view, the stage is early days, but it is good as well.

從年金的角度和商業的角度來看，這個階段還處於早期階段，但也很好。

Just in terms of that housekeeping matter, we had that about $0.5 billion of Tech Guarantee.

就那件家務事而言，我們有大約 5 億美元的技術擔保。

Your 20% year-on-year is the normalized growth, and we think it speaks to the strength of the business and the launch in the quarter.

您的 20% 同比增長是正常的增長，我們認為這說明了業務的實力和本季度的推出。

But to be clear, 20% is excluding the Tech Guarantee impact.

但需要明確的是，20% 不包括技術保證影響。

If I could just ask a follow-up on that, if you were to look at this business, adding into the next quarter with respect to the small business segment of it, are you seeing small businesses gravitate towards long-term contracts, or do you think the small business activity is going to be principally more like licensing and more like the consumer?

如果我可以問一個後續問題，如果您要查看這項業務，並在下個季度增加它的小企業部分，您是否看到小企業傾向於長期合同，或者確實您認為小企業活動將主要更像是許可，更像是消費者？

We aren't seeing any marked difference in the pick up to any great extent.

在很大程度上，我們沒有看到任何明顯的差異。

The same split that we have seen in terms of 40% annuity, 40% license only is broadly speaking what we are expecting going forward.

我們在 40% 年金、僅 40% 許可方面看到的相同分裂大致上是我們對未來的預期。

Terrific.

了不起。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And just to add to that, the metrics -- certainly the 20% billings growth does speak to the Dynamics business, which targets more of that segment that you're talking about.

除此之外，這些指標——當然，20% 的賬單增長確實與 Dynamics 業務有關，它針對的是你正在談論的更多細分市場。

And then on the CRM side, we did announce in March reaching that milestone of 10,000 customers and 400,000 users.

然後在 CRM 方面，我們確實在 3 月份宣布達到 10,000 名客戶和 400,000 名用戶的里程碑。

And we're continuing to work the value proposition there.

我們將繼續在那裡開展價值主張。

John DiFucci, Bear Stearns.

約翰迪福奇，貝爾斯登。

Chris, you tell us what the impact of the Technology Guaranteed Program was on the Client business.

克里斯，您告訴我們技術保證計劃對客戶業務的影響。

But you also mentioned a couple of other events are different this quarter versus previous quarters.

但您還提到，本季度與前幾個季度相比，其他一些事件有所不同。

There was a revenue rec change and also the channel preparation for the launch.

收入記錄發生了變化，也為發布做了渠道準備。

Can you tell us what the growth would have been if you excluded both of those?

你能告訴我們如果你把這兩個都排除在外，增長會是多少？

And along the same lines, just to follow, on the revenue rec change, are you going to -- the numbers you threw out there seemed a little low to me, looking at the next -- the rest of this year and next.

沿著同樣的思路，就收入記錄的變化而言，你打算 - 你在那裡拋出的數字對我來說似乎有點低，看看下一個 - 今年和明年剩下的時間。

Are you going to give us what the impact has been on a quarterly basis?

您是否要按季度向我們提供影響？

We will certainly give you the Vista revenue recognition impact on a quarter by quarter basis.

我們一定會按季度為您提供 Vista 收入確認影響。

That is what we can mostly right at the start.

這就是我們一開始就可以做到的。

We are very happy to do it.

我們很樂意這樣做。

If you look at the chart that I referred to -- I'm not sure you had a chance to as I was speaking -- it gives you it in black and white.

如果你看一下我提到的圖表——我不確定你是否有機會在我說的時候——它會給你黑白的。

It is $220 million in fiscal year '07 and $660 million in fiscal year '08.

07財年為2.2億美元，08財年為6.6億美元。

Of that $220 million in fiscal year '07, it was broadly equal in Q3 and Q4.

在 07 財年的 2.2 億美元中，第三季度和第四季度大致相等。

And that would have had about 0.5% impact from a growth rate point of view.

從增長率的角度來看，這將產生約 0.5% 的影響。

That is just for the Vista revenue recognition impact.

這只是對 Vista 收入確認的影響。

And just for the Company overall and for Client it was around 3%.

僅對公司整體和客戶而言，約為 3%。

So we are certainly happy to work through the math.

所以我們當然很樂意完成數學。

I know there's a lot of moving parts, but we will give you total transparency to the extent we can.

我知道有很多活動部件，但我們會盡我們所能為您提供完全的透明度。

Even though in Q3 there was only two quarters that really had the impact -- I mean, two months of the three months in the quarter, you think it will be evenly split?

儘管在第三季度只有兩個季度真正產生了影響——我的意思是，這個季度三個月中的兩個月，你認為它會平分秋色嗎？

And then just the first question, if you included that impact, plus the channel preparation for the launches, I think either you or Colleen mentioned generally usually you see a spike in the revenue.

然後只是第一個問題，如果您將這種影響以及發布的渠道準備包括在內，我認為您或科琳通常會提到您通常會看到收入激增。

Just due to that, and during a launch quarter what would the Client growth have been?

正因為如此，在發布季度，客戶增長會是多少？

If I work through the math, if you start with PC unit growth in the quarter, it was around 10 to 12.

如果我通過數學計算，如果你從本季度的 PC 單位增長開始，它大約是 10 到 12。

We saw OEM unit growth of 20%.

我們看到 OEM 單位增長了 20%。

So the units grew in excess of PC units.

因此，單位的增長超過了 PC 單位。

And that is people stocking obviously or restocking, and some of the system builder channel impacts as well.

那就是人們明顯地進貨或補貨，以及一些系統構建商渠道的影響。

So unit growth of around 20%.

所以單位增長率在20%左右。

If you exclude the Vista and the Tech Guarantee, the OEM revenue grew broadly in line to 21% relative to 20% growth.

如果排除 Vista 和技術保證，OEM 收入大致增長到 21%，相對於 20% 的增長。

The commercial and retail, which this is obviously the retail spike, grew 67%.

商業和零售，這顯然是零售高峰，增長了 67%。

Sorry, I beg your pardon, 53%, then Client revenue overall would have grown 27%.

抱歉，請原諒，53%，那麼客戶總收入將增長 27%。

So if you exclude all the accounting impacts, that is probably the easiest way to work through it.

因此，如果您排除所有會計影響，那可能是最簡單的解決方法。

But it is still a very healthy quarter, up 27%.

但這仍然是一個非常健康的季度，增長了 27%。

Sara Friar, Goldman Sachs.

Sara Friar，高盛。

Maybe you could switch to just the Entertainment and Devices Division.

也許您可以只轉至娛樂和設備部門。

Could you just give us some clarity, Chris, on whether you are still expecting profitability for that division?

克里斯，您能否讓我們清楚地了解您是否仍期待該部門的盈利能力？

And finally, obviously that has been a big milestone.

最後，顯然這是一個重要的里程碑。

And then I think last quarter it seemed as if you were managing that inventory.

然後我認為上個季度你似乎在管理庫存。

But I assume that is somewhat ahead of a price cut.

但我認為這在一定程度上是在降價之前。

So any further color you could give us there would be great.

所以你能給我們的任何其他顏色都會很棒。

And then just one more on Halo 3 launch.

然後在 Halo 3 發佈時再做一次。

What are you expecting in terms of impact from Halo 3, and just overall attach rates as the cycle gets a little bit more mature?

你對 Halo 3 的影響有什麼期望，以及隨著周期變得更加成熟的整體附加率？

Sure, if I start with the second one first.

當然，如果我先從第二個開始。

So the sales during the quarter in terms of sell-in were around 500,000 consuls.

因此，本季度的銷售量約為 500,000 名領事。

The sell-through, that is what the retailers sells, was higher than that, so our inventory levels did come down.

零售商銷售的銷售額高於此，因此我們的庫存水平確實下降了。

And down to more around sort of normal levels we would expect.

並且下降到我們期望的更多正常水平。

We did a good inventory movement during the course of the quarter.

我們在本季度進行了良好的庫存變動。

In terms of profitability for next year that is certainly the target.

就明年的盈利能力而言，這當然是目標。

And we're working through our budgeting process now, but from my point of view, anyway, that is the starting point going into next year.

我們現在正在完成我們的預算流程，但從我的角度來看，無論如何，這是明年的起點。

Obviously, there's a lot of moving parts there in terms of our ability to take COGS of the system, how many units we sell, and factors like that.

顯然，就我們獲取系統 COGS 的能力、我們銷售的單位數量以及諸如此類的因素而言，那裡有很多活動部件。

But that is certainly the starting point.

但這肯定是起點。

In terms of Halo 3, that is clearly going to have a positive impact in two sense.

就 Halo 3 而言，這顯然會在兩個意義上產生積極影響。

One, it gives us more confidence with the number of consoles that we think we are going to be able to sell next year.

第一，它讓我們對我們認為明年能夠銷售的遊戲機數量更有信心。

In terms of a direct impact, obviously it is a third-party product, so it is reasonably profitable from our point of view.

就直接影響而言，顯然它是第三方產品，因此從我們的角度來看，它是合理盈利的。

And it will be several hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue next year.

明年的收入將達到數億美元。

Terrific.

了不起。

And no change competitively this quarter?

本季度沒有競爭變化？

It was just Sony and Nintendo?

只有索尼和任天堂？

I'm sorry, what was that?

對不起，那是什麼？

Any changes competitively from the other two big game vendors, Sony and Nintendo?

與其他兩大遊戲供應商索尼和任天堂的競爭有何變化？

No, nothing of significance.

不，沒有什麼意義。

We are obviously very happy from a competitive point of view with the response in the marketplace, but nothing of significance.

從競爭的角度來看，我們顯然對市場的反應感到非常高興，但這並不重要。

Kirk Materne, Banc of America Securities.

Kirk Materne，美國銀行證券公司。

Chris, you mentioned going into your fourth quarter you have a number of large multiyear deals up for renewal.

克里斯，您提到進入第四季度，您有許多大型多年期交易等待續訂。

Can you just give us some color perhaps around how many of those deals involves say up-selling a large enterprise from say the business version to get them on the enterprise version, which would also take them into a longer-term agreement with you guys around software assurance?

你能不能給我們一些顏色，也許這些交易中有多少涉及說從商業版本向上銷售一家大型企業以讓他們進入企業版本，這也將使他們與你們周圍的人達成長期協議軟件保障？

I'm just trying to get a sense on how many of those type of deals are still out there where a customer might be on software assurance for Office but not for Vista, for example.

例如，我只是想了解有多少此類交易仍然存在，客戶可能會為 Office 提供軟件保障，但不會為 Vista 提供保障。

Any color around that would be helpful.

周圍的任何顏色都會有幫助。

I can't give you a proportion, but I think if I talk about it the way the field thinks about it, every license that comes up for renewal is an opportunity to sell additional products.

我不能給你一個比例，但我認為如果我以業界的看法來談論它，每一個更新的許可證都是銷售額外產品的機會。

And when you think about it, it is a three-year anniversary generally speaking.

當你考慮它時，一般來說這是一個三週年紀念日。

So in the last three years if you think about the product we have launched, it is not just the obvious ones of Vista and Office.

所以在過去三年裡，如果你想想我們推出的產品，它不僅僅是那些顯而易見的 Vista 和 Office。

There's a significant amount of additional products that the field now has the ability to sell as part of an Enterprise agreement.

作為企業協議的一部分，該領域現在可以銷售大量附加產品。

So there is a significant amount of number of contracts coming up.

所以有大量的合同即將到來。

And clearly there is some risk to the extent those people now have an entitlement to Vista and Office, but there is an opportunity because of all the other products.

顯然，這些人現在有權使用 Vista 和 Office 存在一定的風險，但由於所有其他產品，存在機會。

I don't want to say there is an X percent where we think we will be successful.

我不想說我們認為我們會成功的百分之 X。

But we certainly feel good about maintaining the renewal rate of two-thirds to three-quarters, and in some instances they would be additional products as well.

但我們當然對維持三分之二到四分之三的續訂率感到滿意，在某些情況下，它們也是附加產品。

Kash Rangan, Merrill Lynch.

卡什蘭根，美林證券。

I just want to clarify on the EPS guidance, Chris or Colleen, for fiscal '08, that doesn't conclude the positive impact from the rev rec rate, so how would you quantify that if you look at the $1.68 to $1.72, that is $0.04 to $0.05 positive impact from the rev rec seem like a reasonable assumption?

我只是想澄清一下 08 財年的每股收益指導，克里斯或科琳，這並沒有得出轉速記錄率的積極影響，所以如果你看一下 1.68 美元到 1.72 美元，你將如何量化它，即rev rec 的 0.04 美元到 0.05 美元的積極影響似乎是一個合理的假設？

We give the specific number, so depending on how you treat it.

我們給出了具體的數字，所以取決於你如何對待它。

But if we look at the GAAP unearned income that comes off our balance sheet and flows -- we expect to flow through the income statement next year, it is $660 million.

但是，如果我們看一下資產負債表和流動的 GAAP 非勞動收入——我們預計明年將通過損益表流動，它是 6.6 億美元。

So that will equate to around $0.04 a share, if you take an after-tax and divide it by our number of shares.

因此，如果您將稅後稅後除以我們的股份數量，這將相當於每股約 0.04 美元。

So that number may go up or down slightly depending on our actual sales and the mix of Vista and XP.

因此，這個數字可能會根據我們的實際銷售額以及 Vista 和 XP 的組合略有上升或下降。

But if you just take our guidance as it sits, it would be around $0.04 a share.

但是，如果您只是按照我們的指導進行操作，則每股約為 0.04 美元。

What is the confidence level at this early point in the cycle, with 85% Vista, 15% XP assumption?

在這個週期的早期階段的置信水平是多少，假設 85% Vista，15% XP？

What we hear from our surveys is that a lot of the Enterprises seem to want to do an implementation of Vista in 2008.

我們從調查中得知，很多企業似乎都希望在 2008 年實施 Vista。

So how are you thinking about the confidence level in the 85, 15 mix between Vista and XP?

那麼您如何看待 Vista 和 XP 之間的 85、15 組合的置信度？

It is early days, so the standard deviation is quite high.

現在還處於早期階段，因此標準差相當高。

But I will just say that our fiscal year '08 picked up the first six months of calendar year 2008.

但我只想說，我們的 08 財年是 2008 年的前六個月。

So to the extent that some people are on the sidelines waiting, they may well be looking at a position of early next year.

因此，就某些人在場外等待的程度而言，他們很可能正在尋找明年初的位置。

And that would pick up our fiscal year.

這將加快我們的財政年度。

It could be a relatively high swing between 85, 15.

它可能在 85、15 之間有一個相對較高的波動。

From a revenue recognition point of view that might move around from an accounting perspective.

從收入確認的角度來看，從會計的角度來看可能會有所變化。

From a cash flow point of view, it is not really going to have a significant impact.

從現金流的角度來看，它不會真正產生重大影響。

Finally, the units on Vista you disclosed, I think one month after the launch, was 20 million.

最後，你透露的 Vista 上的單位，我認為在推出一個月後，是 2000 萬。

Any update on that during the quarter how many units of Vista?

本季度更新了多少台 Vista？

And if you could break that out between OEM, update and retail, that would be useful (inaudible).

如果您可以在 OEM、更新和零售之間打破這一點，那將很有用（聽不清）。

No, I don't have a number to give you today.

不，我今天沒有電話號碼給你。

I'm happy to talk to the Client people, and if there's a number they would like to give out, we will follow-up with that.

我很高興與客戶人員交談，如果他們想給出一個數字，我們會跟進。

We have time for one last question please, operator.

接線員，我們有時間回答最後一個問題。

Brent Thill, Citigroup.

花旗集團的布倫特希爾。

Next year for fiscal '08 on operating margins, I believe that implies roughly flat with '07.

明年 08 財年的營業利潤率，我認為這意味著與 07 年大致持平。

Can you help us reconcile, considering that you're headed in probably the strongest point of your product cycle in a number of years, how you expect that operating margin to play out with regards to what your long-term model looks like and where you were at a couple of years ago at much higher operating margins?

考慮到您可能正處於多年來產品週期的最強點，您能否幫助我們調和，您期望營業利潤率如何影響您的長期模型以及您的位置幾年前的營業利潤率要高得多？

I will start with just the guidance we have given you, at least on a GAAP basis.

我將從我們給你的指導開始，至少在公認會計原則的基礎上。

So we talk about revenue growth of 11 to 12, and operating income growth of 12 to 14.

所以我們談論收入增長 11 到 12，營業收入增長 12 到 14。

So you see a slight margin expansion based on that.

因此，您會看到基於此的利潤率略有增長。

Although some of that is obviously the Vista accounting impact, and obviously earnings per share growing at 14 to 15, so higher again.

儘管其中一些顯然是 Vista 會計影響，並且每股收益明顯增長了 14 到 15 倍，因此再次更高。

So a little bit improved margins in that respect.

所以在這方面稍微提高了利潤率。

When I look at next year, we are still in investment mode in Online Services.

展望明年，我們仍處於在線服務的投資模式。

We are looking at year-on-year growth on expenses broadly in line with what we have talked about.

我們正在考慮與我們所討論的大致一致的支出同比增長。

And we're talking about growing the Company's revenue base allow 11 to 12%.

我們正在談論將公司的收入基礎增長 11% 到 12%。

So if we can get margin expansion, I think that is tremendous.

因此，如果我們能夠擴大利潤率，我認為這是巨大的。

I think you have to look at the underlying businesses and look at them one by one.

我覺得你得看底層業務，一個一個看。

But if we can grow the Company topline 11 to 12% and maintain, or possibly slightly enhance, our margin structure, I think that is a good starting base for a company of our size.

但是，如果我們能夠將公司的收入增長 11% 到 12%，並保持或可能略微提高我們的利潤率結構，我認為這對於我們這種規模的公司來說是一個很好的起點。

I would just be curious to get your thoughts.

我只是想知道你的想法。

A number of the hardware companies have mentioned a sluggish March.

許多硬件公司都提到了低迷的三月。

It appears that you're not seeing that.

看來你沒有看到。

Maybe offer some thoughts in terms of what the difference is there.

也許就那裡的區別提供一些想法。

And also to follow-up on the business segment, you mentioned the consumer segment is tracking ahead of the business.

此外，對於業務部門的跟進，您提到消費者部門正在跟踪業務。

When do you expect the business segment to really expect to kick in?

您預計業務部門何時真正期望啟動？

Obviously we have a lot of different cycles from a hardware manufacturer, given the number of businesses that we're in.

顯然，鑑於我們從事的業務數量，我們與硬件製造商有很多不同的周期。

You have to look across the whole suite of our businesses.

您必須瀏覽我們的整套業務。

The thing that I would say is we're not seeing any significant slowdown in aggregate across our businesses.

我想說的是，我們的業務總體上沒有出現任何顯著放緩。

Individual businesses may have some, but certainly for the Company overall, given the multiplicity of businesses we're involved in, we are seeing healthy demand.

個別企業可能有一些，但對於公司整體而言，鑑於我們參與的業務的多樣性，我們看到了健康的需求。

And we have a good international business as well, which helps as well.

我們也有很好的國際業務，這也有幫助。

I assume your question was mainly around North America, but a large number of our sales are outside North America.

我想你的問題主要是在北美，但我們的大部分銷售都在北美以外。

And the economies are doing very well there.

那裡的經濟表現非常好。

And we're certainly seeing growth rates that are very good there as well.

我們當然也看到了非常好的增長率。

So no particular aspects there.

所以那裡沒有特別的方面。

What was the second part of your question?

你問題的第二部分是什麼？

Just in terms of when do you think the business segment starts to maybe eclipse the consumer segment, when you see that strength kicking in?

就你認為業務部門何時開始超越消費者部門而言，當你看到這種力量開始發揮作用時？

I think the business segment is probably going to continue to be broadly equal to what it is at the moment.

我認為業務部門可能會繼續與目前大致相同。

And so it is really around consumer growth, and whether that changes or not.

所以它實際上是圍繞消費者增長，不管這種情況是否改變。

But if the business growth continues in the sort of mid single digits, the consumer growth is probably growing in excess of 10%, so I don't necessarily see that inverting for the foreseeable future.

但如果業務增長繼續保持中個位數，消費者增長可能會超過 10%，所以在可預見的未來，我不一定會看到這種反轉。

I think customer growth would have to slide down quite a lot in order to dip below business growth, which I think is going to remain relatively healthy.

我認為客戶增長必須大幅下滑才能低於業務增長，我認為這將保持相對健康。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

And thanks to everyone for your participation in today's call.

感謝大家參與今天的電話會議。

If you have any further questions, please feel free to call me or my team directly.

如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時直接致電我或我的團隊。

As I mentioned at the beginning of this call, this conference call will be available on replay at our Investor Relations website through close of business, April 26, 2008.

正如我在本次電話會議開始時提到的，本次電話會議將於 2008 年 4 月 26 日收盤時在我們的投資者關係網站上重播。

In addition, you can hear the replay by dialing 866-479-2456, or for international calls dial 203-369-1531.

此外，您可以撥打 866-479-2456 收聽重播，國際電話撥打 203-369-1531。

The dial-in replay will be available through the close of business, May 4, 2007.

撥入重播將在 2007 年 5 月 4 日營業結束時提供。

Thanks again for joining us today.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This does conclude today's Microsoft conference call.

這確實結束了今天的微軟電話會議。

We thank you for your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。