微軟 (MSFT) 2007 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to the Microsoft fourth-quarter fiscal year 2007 earnings conference call. Your lines have been placed on listen-only until the question-and-answer session of today's conference.

下午好，歡迎參加 Microsoft 2007 財年第四季度財報電話會議。在今天會議的問答環節之前，您的台詞一直處於只聽狀態。

Please be advised this call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Colleen Healy, General Manager, Investor Relations.

請注意，此電話正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，請在此時斷開連接。我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係部總經理 Colleen Healy 女士。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. This afternoon I'm joined by Chris Liddell, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Frank Brod, Corporate Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and John Seethoff, Deputy General Counsel. Today's call will start with Chris providing some key takeaways for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2007 and an overview of expectations for fiscal year 2008. I will then provide detail around our fourth-quarter results, and then turn it back to Chris for a more detailed discussion of our guidance for the full year and first quarter of fiscal 2008. After that we will take your questions.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。今天下午，高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Chris Liddell 加入了我的行列； Frank Brod，公司副總裁兼首席會計官；和副總法律顧問 John Seethoff。今天的電話會議將首先由 Chris 提供 2007 財年第四季度的一些關鍵要點以及對 2008 財年預期的概述。然後我將提供有關我們第四季度業績的詳細信息，然後將其轉回給 Chris 以獲得更多信息詳細討論我們對 2008 財年全年和第一季度的指導。之後，我們將回答您的問題。

Our earnings release includes an addendum of financial highlights which contains more detailed information about revenue, operating expenses and other items. We have also posted our quarterly financial summary slide deck, which is intended to follow the flow of our prepared remarks in order to assist you. The slide deck offers highlights from the quarter, outlines our guidance, and provides a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will talk about today.

我們的收益發布包括一份財務摘要附錄，其中包含有關收入、運營費用和其他項目的更詳細信息。我們還發布了我們的季度財務摘要幻燈片，旨在按照我們準備好的評論流程為您提供幫助。幻燈片提供了本季度的亮點，概述了我們的指導，並提供了我們今天將要討論的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間差異的協調。

You can find the earnings release, the financial highlights and the quarterly financial summary slide deck on the investor relations website at www.Microsoft.com/MSFT.

您可以在投資者關係網站 www.Microsoft.com/MSFT 上找到收益發布、財務摘要和季度財務摘要幻燈片。

Today's call will be recorded. Please be aware that if you decide to ask a question, it will be included in both our live transmission, as well as any future use of the recording. As always, shareholders and analysts can listen to a live webcast of today's call at the Microsoft Investor Relations website. A replay of the call will be available at this same site through the close of business on July 19, 2008.

今天的通話將被錄音。請注意，如果您決定提出問題，它將包含在我們的實時傳輸以及將來對錄音的任何使用中。與往常一樣，股東和分析師可以在微軟投資者關係網站上收聽今天電話會議的網絡直播。到 2008 年 7 月 19 日營業結束時，將在同一地點重播電話會議。

This conference call report is protected by copyright law and international treaties. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of this report, or any portion of it, may result in civil and criminal penalties. Any recording or other use or transmission of the text or audio of today's call is not allowed without the expressed permission of Microsoft.

本電話會議報告受版權法和國際條約的保護。未經授權複製或分發本報告或其任何部分可能會導致民事和刑事處罰。未經 Microsoft 明確許可，不得對今天通話的文本或音頻進行任何錄音或其他使用或傳輸。

We will make forward statements during this call. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release and the comments made during this conference call, and in our 2006 Form 10-K, subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.

我們將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性聲明。這些陳述基於當前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。由於今天的收益新聞稿中討論的因素和本次電話會議期間發表的評論，以及我們 2006 年 10-K 表格、隨後的 10-Q 表格季度報告以及其他報告和提交給證券和交易委員會。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, let me now turn it over to Chris.

有了這個，現在讓我把它交給克里斯。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. I'll start today's call with highlights from last fiscal year's performance, and then give you an overview of our expectations for fiscal 2008.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。我將從上一財年業績的亮點開始今天的電話會議，然後概述我們對 2008 財年的預期。

Our quarter four performance kept an extremely strong year for our Company, and helped set the stage for fiscal 2008 to be another year of double-digit revenue, operating income and earnings per share growth. I'm extremely pleased with the traction our sales force and partners are experiencing with business customers, evidenced by billings growth in the quarter for Enterprise Agreements in excess of 25%, and non-annuity licensing up of over 15%. When you combine those figures with billings for OEM and Packaged Products, each growing 10% plus in the quarter, you'll see that demand was strong across all of our channels and customers.

我們公司第四季度的業績保持了非常強勁的一年，並為 2008 財年奠定了又一個收入、營業收入和每股收益兩位數增長的年份。我對我們的銷售團隊和合作夥伴對企業客戶的吸引力感到非常滿意，本季度企業協議的賬單增長超過 25%，非年金許可增長超過 15% 就是明證。當您將這些數字與 OEM 和包裝產品的賬單相結合時，本季度每個增長 10% 以上，您會發現我們所有渠道和客戶的需求都很強勁。

Looking at our full year results, fiscal 2007 was a year of $7 billion of revenue growth, fueled by robust customer acceptance of products in both our emerging and mature businesses, including Windows Vista, Microsoft Office 2007, SQL Server, Windows Server, and Xbox 360 consoles. Our core businesses accounted for $5 billion of absolute revenue growth, with the Business Division, Client and Server and Tools growing 13%, 14% and 16%, respectively, for the year.

從我們的全年業績來看，2007 財年的收入增長了 70 億美元，這得益於客戶對我們新興和成熟業務產品的強勁接受度，包括 Windows Vista、Microsoft Office 2007、SQL Server、Windows Server 和 Xbox 360 控制台。我們的核心業務帶來了 50 億美元的絕對收入增長，其中業務部門、客戶端和服務器以及工具分別增長了 13%、14% 和 16%。

Operating income for the year also grew double digits. We were able to achieve this while still be being able to make a number of significant investments in our businesses, for example, the launch of over 40 new products into the marketplace, as well as a number of updates and enhancements to our online service offerings, continued development of a number of upcoming products, such as new versions of Windows Server, SQL Server, and Visual Studio, the enhancement of our Online Service infrastructure by continuing to refine adCenter and increasing our database capacity, necessary investments in Xbox customer satisfaction. And we also announced eight strategic acquisitions, including aQuantive, to provide the advertising industry with a world-class, Internet-wide advertising platform; Tellme, for its voice response services; and Softicity for its application virtualization and streaming capabilities.

全年營業收入也增長了兩位數。我們能夠實現這一目標，同時仍然能夠對我們的業務進行大量投資，例如，向市場推出 40 多種新產品，以及對我們的在線服務產品進行大量更新和增強，繼續開發一些即將推出的產品，例如新版本的 Windows Server、SQL Server 和 Visual Studio，通過繼續完善 adCenter 和增加我們的數據庫容量來增強我們的在線服務基礎架構，以及對 Xbox 客戶滿意度的必要投資。我們還宣布了包括 aQuantive 在內的八項戰略收購，為廣告行業提供世界級的全互聯網廣告平台； Tellme，提供語音響應服務； Softicity 的應用程序虛擬化和流媒體功能。

Earnings for the year came in at $1.42, up 18% over last year, which was faster than both revenue and operating income. Finally during fiscal 2007 we made significant progress on our strategy of returning cash to shareholders. Last year at this time we announced authorization for programs to repurchase up to $40 billion worth of our stock over five years. Today, one year after that announcement, I am happy to say that we have passed the halfway mark on the program by repurchasing approximately $25 billion worth of our stock during the year. When you combine the share repurchases we made this year with the $3.8 billion worth of dividends paid, we returned about 175% of operating cash flow to shareholders.

今年的收益為 1.42 美元，比去年增長 18%，快於收入和營業收入。最後，在 2007 財年，我們在向股東返還現金的戰略上取得了重大進展。去年這個時候，我們宣布授權計劃在五年內回購價值高達 400 億美元的股票。今天，在宣布這一消息一年後，我很高興地說，我們在這一年回購了價值約 250 億美元的股票，這一計劃已經完成了一半。當您將我們今年進行的股票回購與價值 38 億美元的股息相結合時，我們將大約 175% 的經營現金流返還給了股東。

Now I would like to move to our outlook for fiscal 2008. Given the good exit from fiscal 2007, we're increasing our revenue, operating income and earnings per share guidance for next year on an absolute basis. We expect revenue growth of 11% to 13%, with operating income and earnings per share growing even faster than that. I'm particularly pleased that the high end of our guidance reflects each of our businesses growing revenue at double-digit rates for the year, especially given the robust performance in fiscal 2007.

現在我想談談我們對 2008 財年的展望。鑑於 2007 財年的良好退出，我們將在絕對基礎上提高我們對明年的收入、營業收入和每股收益的指導。我們預計收入增長 11% 至 13%，營業收入和每股收益增長速度甚至更快。我特別高興的是，我們的指引的高端反映了我們每項業務在今年以兩位數的速度增長收入，特別是考慮到 2007 財年的強勁表現。

Looking to our product lineup in 2008, next year represents another significant launch year for the Company. We will intensify our pursuit of important market opportunities for the Company with product launches in business intelligence, unified communications, security and business applications. By the time we exit next year, we will have refreshed a major portion of our server lineup within a period of 15 months with the addition of new versions of Windows Server and SQL. Additionally, the consumers will have a great lineup of first and third-party games heading into the holidays, led by the release of a Halo 3, plus continuing enhancements to our Windows slide services.

展望 2008 年的產品陣容，明年是公司又一個重要的發布年。我們將通過商業智能、統一通信、安全和商業應用等產品的發布，加強對公司重要市場機會的追求。到明年我們退出時，我們將在 15 個月內更新大部分服務器陣容，並添加新版本的 Windows Server 和 SQL。此外，隨著 Halo 3 的發布，以及對 Windows 幻燈片服務的持續增強，消費者將在假期前擁有大量第一方和第三方遊戲。

With those high level themes for 2007 and 2008, I am going to turn the call over to Colleen now for more details on how we closed out last year.

有了這些 2007 年和 2008 年的高級主題，我現在將把電話轉給科琳，以了解有關我們去年如何結束的更多詳細信息。

As Chris mentioned, the fourth quarter delivered a strong finish to the year with revenue near the high end of our guidance provided on the April earnings call. Specifically, demand for our offerings was excellent, with revenue growing 13% and core bookings increasing over 20%, characterized by high annuity revenue growth, driven by outstanding field sales force execution on Enterprise Agreement renewals.

正如克里斯所提到的，第四季度的業績表現強勁，收入接近我們在 4 月財報電話會議上提供的指引的高端。具體來說，對我們產品的需求非常好，收入增長了 13%，核心預訂量增長了 20% 以上，其特點是年金收入高增長，這得益於出色的現場銷售人員對企業協議續籤的執行。

This speaks not only to the healthy customer acceptance of the products recently launched, but also to the anticipation of our offerings still to come. Let me provide you with details of our financial performance, starting with revenue. I'll discuss topline, financial and business momentum points, and then follow-up with revenue performance for each of the business units. Then I'll review the rest of the income statement. All growth comparisons I mention relate to the comparable quarter of last year, unless otherwise specified.

這不僅說明了客戶對最近推出的產品的健康接受度，也說明了我們對即將推出的產品的預期。讓我為您提供我們財務業績的詳細信息，從收入開始。我將討論頂線、財務和業務動力點，然後跟進每個業務部門的收入表現。然後我將查看損益表的其餘部分。除非另有說明，否則我提到的所有增長比較都與去年的可比季度有關。

As I mentioned, revenue grew 13% to $13.4 billion, driven by Client, the Microsoft Business Division and Server and Tools. Online Services also had a good quarter. Each of these four businesses grew in the mid to high teens, and collectively at 16%. The underlying PC hardware market remained robust, with estimated growth of 11% to 13% during the quarter, about 1 point higher than our expectations. PC shipment growth rates in emerging markets continue to outpace that of mature markets, and consumer PC shipment growth outpaced that of the Business Segment. Every region, except the US and Japan, increased PC shipments at double-digit rates.

正如我所提到的，在客戶、微軟業務部門以及服務器和工具的推動下，收入增長了 13% 至 134 億美元。在線服務也有一個不錯的季度。這四家企業中的每一個都在中高齡增長，共同增長了 16%。基礎 PC 硬件市場依然強勁，本季度預計增長 11% 至 13%，比我們的預期高出約 1 個百分點。新興市場的 PC 出貨量增速繼續超過成熟市場，消費類 PC 出貨量增速超過業務板塊。除美國和日本外，每個地區的 PC 出貨量都以兩位數的速度增長。

Our mix of product billings for the quarter was approximately 30% from OEMs, over 40% from multi-year licensing agreements, around 15% from license-only sales, and the balance from our other businesses. Over the past couple of years we have seen a mix shift from license-only sales to annuity agreements, driven by standing adoption of Enterprise Agreements. Enterprise Agreement renewal rates exceeded the high end back of our historical range of 66% to 75%. We are delighted that the value proposition from our current product lineup and future roadmap beyond the recently launched flagship desktop product even are resonating with customers.

我們本季度的產品賬單組合約為 30% 來自 OEM，超過 40% 來自多年許可協議，約 15% 來自僅許可銷售，其餘來自我們的其他業務。在過去的幾年裡，在企業協議的長期採用的推動下，我們看到了從僅許可銷售到年金協議的混合轉變。企業協議續訂率超過了我們 66% 至 75% 的歷史範圍的高端。我們很高興我們當前的產品陣容和未來路線圖中的價值主張超越了最近推出的旗艦桌面產品，甚至引起了客戶的共鳴。

This strong annuity licensing performance drove our unearned revenue balance 16% higher to $12.6 billion. And our contracted, not billed balance was driven higher on both a sequential and year-over-year basis, exceeding $10 billion at the end of June. As a result, total bookings grew over 15%, and core bookings of Client, Microsoft Business Division and Server and Tools increased over 20%, as I previously mentioned. I'll close out the revenue overview by adding that changes in foreign exchange rates added about 2 percentage points to our overall revenue growth.

這種強勁的年金許可業績使我們的未實現收入餘額增加了 16%，達到 126 億美元。我們的合同未結算餘額在環比和同比基礎上均有所上升，截至 6 月底超過 100 億美元。結果，總預訂量增長了 15% 以上，而客戶、微軟業務部門和服務器和工具的核心預訂量增長了 20% 以上，正如我之前提到的。我將通過補充說外匯匯率的變化為我們的整體收入增長增加了大約 2 個百分點來結束收入概覽。

Now I will provide revenue highlights by business segment. Volume revenue grew 14% to $3.8 billion, characterized by strong OEM revenue growth, driven by continued demand for Windows Vista and a healthy PC hardware market. OEM revenue increased 15%, and includes 3 points of revenue recognition from undelivered elements. Adjusting for this impact, OEM revenue grew roughly in line with OEM unit shipments at 11%.

現在我將按業務部門提供收入亮點。銷量收入增長 14% 至 38 億美元，其特點是 OEM 收入強勁增長，這得益於對 Windows Vista 的持續需求和健康的 PC 硬件市場。 OEM 收入增長了 15%，其中包括未交付元素的 3 個收入確認點。調整這一影響後，OEM 收入增長與 OEM 單位出貨量大致一致，為 11%。

OEM premium mix was 72%, a 17 percentage point increase over this period last year. This was driven by a 20 percentage point increase in the consumer element of premium mix, and around a 3 percentage point decline in the business element. Given the over 5-to-1 pricing uplift we received from the business premium SKUs over consumer premium SKUs, these changes within the premium mix have largely an offsetting impact to revenue. For further background on this new disclosure, we have included a slide in the earnings guide on our website that illustrates these metrics, as well as lists the SKUs comprising each of the consumer and business premium mixes.

OEM 保費組合為 72%，比去年同期增長 17 個百分點。這是由於高端組合的消費元素增加了 20 個百分點，而商業元素下降了約 3 個百分點。鑑於我們從商業高級 SKU 中獲得的價格比消費者高級 SKU 提高了 5 比 1，因此高級組合中的這些變化在很大程度上對收入產生了抵消性影響。有關這一新披露的更多背景信息，我們在我們網站的收益指南中加入了一張幻燈片，說明了這些指標，並列出了構成每個消費者和企業溢價組合的 SKU。

Client, Commercial and Retail Licensing increased 7%. Businesses are recognizing the value that Windows Vista and Software Assurance provides them, as evidenced by high renewal and new annuity attach rates, driving about a 25% increase in the volume licensing portion of the unearned revenue balance.

客戶、商業和零售許可增長了 7%。企業正在認識到 Windows Vista 和軟件保障為他們提供的價值，如高續訂率和新年金附加率所證明的那樣，推動未實現收入餘額的批量許可部分增加約 25%。

Server and Tools revenue grew 15% to $3.1 billion, driven by SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio and Consulting Services revenue. Fiscal 2007 capped a decade of consecutive years of double-digit revenue growth for SQL Server. During the quarter significant product development momentum was achieved with beta releases of the upcoming versions of Windows Server and Visual Studio, and a community technology preview of SQL Server 2008.

在 SQL Server、Windows Server、Visual Studio 和諮詢服務收入的推動下，服務器和工具收入增長了 15% 至 31 億美元。 2007 財年 SQL Server 連續十年實現兩位數的收入增長。在本季度，隨著即將發布的 Windows Server 和 Visual Studio 版本的 beta 版本以及 SQL Server 2008 的社區技術預覽，實現了顯著的產品開發勢頭。

In our Online Services business we saw advertising revenue growth of 33%, exceeding our expectations. Search ad revenue benefited from both increased search queries and revenue per search, while display ad revenue enjoyed both increased number of page views and revenue per page view. Overall, Online Services business revenue grew 19% to $688 million.

在我們的在線服務業務中，我們看到廣告收入增長了 33%，超出了我們的預期。搜索廣告收入受益於搜索查詢和每次搜索收入的增加，而展示廣告收入則受益於頁面瀏覽量和每次瀏覽收入的增加。總體而言，在線服務業務收入增長 19% 至 6.88 億美元。

Microsoft Business Division revenue grew 19% at $4.6 billion, beating high-end guidance by over $150 million. Highlights in the quarter included solid revenue growth through Enterprise Agreements for Office, and continued momentum for share points. Enterprise Agreement momentum continued after the launch of the Office 2007 system, and renewal rates are higher now than they were a year ago.

微軟業務部門收入增長 19%，達到 46 億美元，超過高端指引 1.5 億美元。本季度的亮點包括通過 Office 企業協議實現的穩健收入增長，以及份額點的持續增長勢頭。企業協議勢頭在Office 2007 系統推出後繼續保持，現在續訂率高於一年前。

We are also pleased with the results of our Dynamic business, which showed healthy performance across both the ERP and CRM product lines, driving a 24% increase in Dynamic Customer billings. An impressive 85,000 new seats of our Dynamic CRM offering were sold during the quarter.

我們也對我們的動態業務的結果感到滿意，它在 ERP 和 CRM 產品線中都表現出健康的表現，推動了動態客戶賬單的 24% 增長。我們的 Dynamic CRM 產品在本季度售出了令人印象深刻的 85,000 個新席位。

Consistent with our guidance, Entertainment and Devices revenues decreased 10% to $1.2 billion as a result of lower Xbox 360 sales. Software and accessory attach rates remained at record levels, and we passed the 7 million member mark for Xbox LIVE. During the quarter, Halo 3 concluded beta testing, and on September 25th will lead the charge of hotly anticipated game titles into this 2007 holiday season. Entertainment and Devices achieved its goal of selling over 1 million Zune units on a self-in basis in its first eight months in the market.

與我們的指導一致，由於 Xbox 360 銷售額下降，娛樂和設備收入下降了 10% 至 12 億美元。軟件和配件的附加率保持在創紀錄的水平，Xbox LIVE 的會員人數超過了 700 萬。在本季度，光環 3 結束了 beta 測試，並將在 9 月 25 日帶領備受期待的遊戲進入 2007 年假期。娛樂和設備公司在上市前八個月內實現了銷售超過 100 萬台 Zune 的目標。

Licenses for Windows Mobile-based phones grew in excess of 75% to end the year with sales of over 11 million, and an increased unit market share in the smart phone category.

到年底，基於 Windows Mobile 的手機的許可增長超過 75%，銷售額超過 1100 萬部，並且在智能手機類別中的單位市場份額有所增加。

Now for the rest of the income statement. Positive revenue increased 52%, primarily driven by a charge relating to the current and enhanced Xbox 360 warranty policies that were announced earlier this month. At this time let me provide you with the details of that charge, now that they have been finalized.

現在是損益表的其餘部分。正收入增長了 52%，主要是由於本月早些時候宣布的與當前和增強的 Xbox 360 保修政策相關的費用。現在，讓我向您提供該指控的詳細信息，現在它們已經完成。

First, the total amount was $1.06 billion, within the range we provided a couple of weeks ago. Second, the makeup is largely consistent with the guidance we provided, with about half of the total charge driven by existing warranty policies and the other half driven by the new warranty enhancements. Of the total amount of the charge, approximately 35% is attributable to inventory valuation adjustment.

首先，總額為 10.6 億美元，在我們幾週前提供的範圍內。其次，構成與我們提供的指導基本一致，大約一半的總費用由現有保修政策驅動，另一半由新的保修增強驅動。在費用總額中，約 35% 是由於存貨估值調整所致。

Before the Xbox 360 charge, cost of revenue would have increased 5% year over year. Other operating expenses increased 13%, including legal charges of $351 million in the year-ago period. Expense growth was driven by headcount-related costs and sales support cost for our Enterprise Software Advisory Channel partners.

在 Xbox 360 收費之前，收入成本將同比增長 5%。其他運營費用增長了 13%，其中包括去年同期的 3.51 億美元的法律費用。費用增長是由我們的企業軟件諮詢渠道合作夥伴的員工相關成本和銷售支持成本推動的。

Operating income was $4 billion. Excluding the impact of the Xbox 360 charge and certain legal charges in the year-ago period, operating income for the quarter would have increased 19% to $5 billion. Investment income and others totaled $295 million for the quarter.

營業收入為 40 億美元。排除 Xbox 360 費用和去年同期某些法律費用的影響，本季度的營業收入將增長 19% 至 50 億美元。本季度的投資收入和其他收入總計 2.95 億美元。

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 29%, to align to our annual effective tax rate of 30% for fiscal 2007. Before nonrecurring items the effective tax rate for the year would have been 31%.

我們本季度的有效稅率為 29%，與 2007 財年 30% 的年度有效稅率保持一致。在非經常性項目之前，本年度的有效稅率為 31%。

Cash flow from operations increased 34% to $4.4 billion. During the quarter we repurchased 243 million shares, or $7.4 billion of Company stock, of which $7.2 billion settled in the quarter. And we paid out $952 million in dividends to shareholders.

運營現金流增加 34% 至 44 億美元。在本季度，我們回購了 2.43 億股股票，即 74 億美元的公司股票，其中 72 億美元在本季度結算。我們向股東支付了 9.52 億美元的股息。

Diluted shares outstanding for the quarter were 9.7 billion, down 6% from the prior year as a result of share repurchases. Earnings per share for the quarter were $0.31, which included $0.08 related to the Xbox charge. Before this charge, earnings would have been $0.39 per share.

由於股票回購，本季度的稀釋流通股為 97 億股，較上年同期下降 6%。本季度每股收益為 0.31 美元，其中包括與 Xbox 收費相關的 0.08 美元。在此收費之前，每股收益為 0.39 美元。

So in summary, during the quarter we made an needed investment into our Xbox business to assure customers that we fully stand behind our products. Before this charge, the fourth quarter was a strong end to fiscal 2007 with double-digit revenue, operating incomes and EPS growth, robust bookings and solid progress on the fiscal 2008 product pipeline.

因此，總而言之，在本季度，我們對 Xbox 業務進行了必要的投資，以向客戶保證我們完全支持我們的產品。在此次收費之前，第四季度以兩位數的收入、營業收入和每股收益增長、強勁的預訂以及 2008 財年產品線的穩健進展為 2007 財年畫上了圓滿的句號。

With that, let me turn it back to Chris, who will provide you with our expectations for the first quarter and all of fiscal 2008.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回到克里斯，他將為您提供我們對第一季度和 2008 財年整個財年的預期。

I'm going to spend my remaining time on the call talking about what we see for the full year ahead and first quarter. Before we get into the specific guidance, let me outline some of our key assumptions. The fiscal 2008 forecast generally assumed a continuation of the economic conditions and demand from where we exited in 2007. And our forecast did not include any significant unexpected impacts from foreign exchange rate movements.

我將把剩下的時間花在電話會議上，討論我們對未來全年和第一季度的看法。在我們進入具體指導之前，讓我概述一下我們的一些關鍵假設。 2008 財年的預測通常假設經濟狀況和需求將延續 2007 年的情況。我們的預測不包括任何來自外匯匯率變動的重大意外影響。

We expect PC unit demand to continue to remain healthy, with growth rates similar to what we saw in 2007. Specifically, we expect PC unit growth for fiscal 2008 to be 9% to 11% for the year and between 11% to 13% for the first quarter. We estimate that growth rates will continue to be higher in the consumer segment than in the business segment, and recent regional trends should continue, with growth in emerging markets outpacing that of mature markets.

我們預計 PC 單位需求將繼續保持健康，增長率與 2007 年相似。具體而言，我們預計 2008 財年 PC 單位增長率為 9% 至 11%，2008 財年為 11% 至 13%第一季度。我們估計消費領域的增長率將繼續高於商業領域，近期的區域趨勢應該會繼續，新興市場的增長將超過成熟市場。

Now let me go through our detailed guidance. For the full year we expect our revenue to come in between $56.8 billion to $57.8 billion, growing 11% to 13%. This represents a 1 percentage point improvement on the high-end, and is about $300 million better in absolute dollar terms from our April guidance. The $5.7 billion to $6.7 billion yearly represents yearly increases driven by expected solid performance across our five segments.

現在讓我來看看我們的詳細指導。我們預計全年收入將在 568 億美元至 578 億美元之間，增長 11% 至 13%。這比我們 4 月份的指導價高出 1 個百分點，以絕對美元計算高出約 3 億美元。每年 57 億至 67 億美元的增長是由於我們五個部門的預期穩健表現推動的。

In the first quarter we expect revenue of $12.4 billion to $12.6 billion, which represents an increase of 15% to 17%. With that revenue guidance in our divisions is as follows. For Client we expect full-year growth to be 9% to 10%, and quarter one growth to being 15% to 16%. For the first quarter we expect OEM revenue to grow faster than the PC hardware market due to a higher premium mix than the year-ago quarter and to be in line for the full year.

我們預計第一季度的收入為 124 億美元至 126 億美元，增長 15% 至 17%。我們各部門的收入指導如下。對於客戶，我們預計全年增長為 9% 至 10%，第一季度增長為 15% 至 16%。對於第一季度，我們預計 OEM 收入的增長速度將快於 PC 硬件市場，因為溢價組合高於去年同期，並且全年保持一致。

On the Commercial and Retail side of the business, we expect double-digit growth for both quarter one and the year from continued demand through our volume licensing channels. Combined growth rate benefits by 3 percentage points in Q1 and 2 percentage points for the full year from recognition of undelivered elements. As in our April call, we have included a slide in our slide deck containing additional information on the impact of Client revenue.

在業務的商業和零售方面，我們預計第一季度和一年的兩位數增長來自通過我們的批量許可渠道的持續需求。第一季度綜合增長率提高了 3 個百分點，全年提高了 2 個百分點，這得益於未交付要素的確認。與我們 4 月的電話會議一樣，我們在幻燈片中包含了一張幻燈片，其中包含有關客戶收入影響的更多信息。

Server and Tools revenue should be 14% to 15% for the year and 11% to 12% for the first quarter. Coming off another impressive year in fiscal 2007, Server and Tools is expected to, again, achieve double-digit revenue growth, while delivering the next wave of server innovation with the upcoming February launch of the new versions of Windows Server, SQL Server and Visual Studio. Together, these products form a highly reliable and secure next-generation Enterprise platform, which will fuel growth in the Server and Tools business over the next several years.

全年服務器和工具收入應為 14% 至 15%，第一季度為 11% 至 12%。 2007 財年又是令人印象深刻的一年，預計 Server and Tools 將再次實現兩位數的收入增長，同時隨著即將在 2 月推出的新版本 Windows Server、SQL Server 和 Visual 帶來下一波服務器創新工作室。這些產品共同構成了一個高度可靠和安全的下一代企業平台，將在未來幾年推動服務器和工具業務的增長。

We forecast revenue in the Online Services business to increase 10% to 13% for the year and 10% to 11% in Q1. This implies advertising growth in excess of 20% for the year and for the quarter. Fiscal 2008 will bring many important structural enhancements to our Online Services business. First, we expect to close both of our recently announced acquisitions for ScreenTonic and aQuantive in the first quarter. These acquisitions represent important next steps as we continue building out our vision of a centralized advertising platform that allows advertisers exposure across the various IP-enabled media.

我們預計在線服務業務的收入今年將增長 10% 至 13%，第一季度將增長 10% 至 11%。這意味著今年和本季度的廣告增長將超過 20%。 2008 財年將為我們的在線服務業務帶來許多重要的結構性改進。首先，我們預計將在第一季度完成我們最近宣布的對 ScreenTonic 和 aQuantive 的收購。這些收購代表了重要的後續步驟，因為我們將繼續構建集中式廣告平台的願景，該平台允許廣告商在各種支持 IP 的媒體中曝光。

Second, we will be making usability improvements by providing better integration between our Windows Live services. Third, we will continue to build out our data centers to provide capacity for Online Services that can be used across the Company.

其次，我們將通過在我們的 Windows Live 服務之間提供更好的集成來改進可用性。第三，我們將繼續建設我們的數據中心，以提供可在整個公司範圍內使用的在線服務能力。

I mentioned our acquisition of aQuantive, and I want to clarify that the guidance we are giving you for the Company and for [RSB] does not include the financial impact of aQuantive. We expect to close the aQuantive acquisition in August, sometime after the shareholder vote. Assuming a positive vote and a subsequent close, we plan to update our corporate guidance for the inclusion of that business on our next earnings call in October. As we stated in May, the transaction will have revenue and operating expenses, but we do not expect a significant effect to fiscal 2008 operating income and earnings per share, excluding transaction cost.

我提到了我們對 aQuantive 的收購，我想澄清一下，我們為公司和 [RSB] 提供的指導不包括 aQuantive 的財務影響。我們預計在股東投票後的某個時間，在 8 月完成對 aQuantive 的收購。假設一個積極的投票和隨後的收盤，我們計劃更新我們的公司指導，以將該業務納入我們 10 月份的下一次財報電話會議。正如我們在 5 月份所說，該交易將產生收入和運營費用，但我們預計不會對 2008 財年的營業收入和每股收益（不包括交易成本）產生重大影響。

Microsoft Business Division revenue should be 11% to 12% for the year and 14% to 15% in the first quarter. Q1 will continue to benefit from strong customer acceptance of the Microsoft Office system. Fiscal 2008 represents another important launch year for the Business Division, with the impending releases of Office Communications Server, Performance Point Server and new versions of Dynamic CRM. These products continue Microsoft's push into the field of unified communications, business intelligence and business application. While overall revenue growth remains healthy, growth comparisons for the second half of 2008 are more difficult due to our outperformance in 2007.

微軟業務部門全年收入應為 11% 至 12%，第一季度為 14% 至 15%。 Q1 將繼續受益於客戶對 Microsoft Office 系統的廣泛接受。 2008 財年是業務部門的又一個重要發布年，即將發布 Office Communications Server、Performance Point Server 和新版本的 Dynamic CRM。這些產品延續了微軟在統一通信、商業智能和商業應用領域的進軍。雖然整體收入增長保持健康，但由於我們在 2007 年的出色表現，2008 年下半年的增長比較更加困難。

For the Entertainment and Devices Division, we're forecasting revenue growth of 10% to 19% for the full year and 30% to 40% for Q1. Growth in our most profitable revenue streams will be a key driver in achieving our goal of segment profitability in fiscal 2008. We had the best deals and third-party software title lineup we have ever had, highlighted by the launch of Halo 3 this September. These games, combined with Xbox accessory attach, and an expanding line of Xbox LIVE installed base, set us up for an excellent year in our Xbox business.

對於娛樂和設備部門，我們預計全年收入增長 10% 至 19%，第一季度增長 30% 至 40%。我們最有利可圖的收入流的增長將成為我們在 2008 財年實現部門盈利目標的關鍵驅動力。我們擁有有史以來最好的交易和第三方軟件產品陣容，今年 9 月推出的 Halo 3 突出了這一點。這些遊戲與 Xbox 附件連接以及不斷擴大的 Xbox LIVE 安裝基礎系列相結合，為我們的 Xbox 業務創造了出色的一年。

2008 will be another year of continued momentum for our Mobile Communications business as well. We expect to sell over 20 million licenses for Windows Mobile-based phone as our carrier and OEM partners roll out a broad and compelling lineup of devices based on Windows Mobile 6.

2008 年也將是我們移動通信業務繼續保持動力的一年。隨著我們的運營商和 OEM 合作夥伴推出基於 Windows Mobile 6 的廣泛而引人注目的設備陣容，我們預計將銷售超過 2000 萬份基於 Windows Mobile 的手機許可證。

Getting back to Companywide performance, operating income for the year is expected to be between $22.2 billion and $22.7 billion, increasing 20% to 22% and 12% to 15%, excluding certain charges in fiscal 2007. The high revenue forecast is responsible for the improvement versus our April operating income guidance. For the first quarter, we expect operating income to be between $5 billion and $5.2 billion.

回到全公司的業績，本年度的營業收入預計將在 222 億美元至 227 億美元之間，增長 20% 至 22% 和 12% 至 15%，不包括 2007 財年的某些費用。高收入預測是造成與我們 4 月份的營業收入指引相比有所改善。對於第一季度，我們預計營業收入將在 50 億美元至 52 億美元之間。

As a result of the higher operating income guidance, we have increased our full-year earnings per share results by $0.01. Therefore diluted earnings per share for the year are expected to come in at $1.69 to $1.73. For the first quarter we expect $0.38 to $0.40. These earnings assume an effective tax rate of 30.5%.

由於更高的營業收入指導，我們將全年每股收益增加了 0.01 美元。因此，預計本年度每股攤薄收益為 1.69 美元至 1.73 美元。我們預計第一季度為 0.38 至 0.40 美元。這些收益假設有效稅率為 30.5%。

From a balance sheet prospective we expect total unearned revenue to finish fiscal 2008 up 7% to 10%. Excluding undelivered elements, the remaining portion of our unearned revenue should increase 13% to 16%. Contracted, not billed should all show also finish 2008 up from current levels. When thinking about sequential changes in unearned revenue from quarter four 2007 to quarter one 2008, we expect a sequential decrease from the fourth quarter to be about 10%, due to the large amount of billings in that fourth quarter.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們預計 2008 財年未實現的總收入將增長 7% 至 10%。排除未交付的元素，我們未實現收入的剩餘部分應增加 13% 至 16%。 2008 年已簽約的，未開票的應該都顯示在當前水平之上。在考慮從 2007 年第四季度到 2008 年第一季度未實現收入的連續變化時，我們預計第四季度的連續下降約為 10%，因為該第四季度的大量賬單。

When thinking about the guidance we just provided you, I would suggest that you consider some of the risks. These risks include competitive, legal, execution and general market risks, as well as customer acceptance of our new and existing products, and fluctuations in PC and server hardware growth rates. Additionally, changes in the mix of our billings between and annuity and license-only can have an impact on GAAP revenue, operating income and earnings per share by delaying revenue recognition into future periods.

在考慮我們剛剛為您提供的指導時，我建議您考慮一些風險。這些風險包括競爭、法律、執行和一般市場風險，以及客戶對我們新產品和現有產品的接受程度，以及 PC 和服務器硬件增長率的波動。此外，我們在年金和僅許可之間的賬單組合的變化可能會通過將收入確認延遲到未來期間來對 GAAP 收入、營業收入和每股收益產生影響。

So to wrap up, fiscal 2007 was an excellent year from our perspective. Launches of Windows Vista, the 2007 Microsoft Office System, Exchange 2007, Zune, and Windows Mobile 6 brought new capabilities into the marketplace. That is exciting to see them off to such strong starts.

總結一下，從我們的角度來看，2007 財年是出色的一年。 Windows Vista、2007 Microsoft Office System、Exchange 2007、Zune 和 Windows Mobile 6 的推出為市場帶來了新的功能。看到他們取得如此強勁的開端，真是令人興奮。

Many of the same factors that helped us be successful in 2007, such as a healthy PC hardware market, customer acceptance of our new versions of Office and Windows, an impressive lineup of new product offerings, as well as solid execution by our R&D and sales and marketing teams will help propel us into the next fiscal year.

幫助我們在 2007 年取得成功的許多相同因素，例如健康的 PC 硬件市場、客戶對我們新版本 Office 和 Windows 的接受度、令人印象深刻的新產品陣容，以及我們研發和銷售的紮實執行力和營銷團隊將幫助推動我們進入下一個財政年度。

In 2008 we're looking to deliver another year of double-digit revenue, operating income and earnings per share growth. Next year product releases represent significant improvements over our existing products, as well as continued push into new areas for the Company. Given the operational backdrop and our ability to generate meaningful free cash flow for the Company, we will look to continue to execute on our strategy of returning cash to shareholders.

2008 年，我們希望實現又一年實現兩位數的收入、營業收入和每股收益增長。明年的產品發布代表了對我們現有產品的重大改進，以及繼續推動公司進入新領域。鑑於運營背景和我們為公司產生有意義的自由現金流的能力，我們將尋求繼續執行我們向股東返還現金的戰略。

This brings me to the end of my financial comments. I'm very much looking forward to catching up with many of you at our financial analyst meeting next week. As a result of your feedback, we have made some slight adjustments to the overall flow of the day. There will still be presentations by Bill, Steve and the senior management team, but we have also allowed more executive interactions than in prior years, with Q&A sessions throughout the day with all the speakers.

這使我的財務評論結束。我非常期待在下週的金融分析師會議上與你們中的許多人見面。根據您的反饋，我們對當天的整體流程進行了一些微調。比爾、史蒂夫和高級管理團隊仍將進行演講，但與往年相比，我們也允許更多的高管互動，全天與所有演講者進行問答環節。

So we have left some time now for your questions. And I will hand the call over to Colleen so we can get started. Thank you.

因此，我們現在為您的問題留出了一些時間。我會把電話轉給科琳，這樣我們就可以開始了。謝謝你。

Let's now proceed to questions. We want to accommodate questions from as many people as possible, so please avoid multi-part questions, and limit yourself to just one question. Operator, will you please repeat your instructions?

現在讓我們繼續提問。我們希望容納盡可能多的人提出的問題，因此請避免多部分問題，並將自己限制在一個問題上。接線員，請您重複一下您的指示好嗎？

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). Charlie DiBona with Sanford Bernstein.

（操作員說明）。查理·迪博納與桑福德·伯恩斯坦。

Chris, I guess it will come as no surprise that I have a question about the Online Services Group. I know you promised more metrics next week. But more generally, you have had some solid results here and a good recovery of search share by all the independent metrics in the last month, both sequentially and year over year. But there has been some speculation that those gains were driven by special programs. And now your Q1 guidance points to a relatively significant deceleration of that business. Can you talk a little bit about the strategy here and about the sustainability of particularly last month's momentum?

克里斯，我想我對在線服務組有疑問也就不足為奇了。我知道你承諾下週提供更多指標。但更一般地說，你在這裡取得了一些可靠的結果，並且上個月所有獨立指標的搜索份額都有很好的恢復，無論是按順序還是同比。但有人猜測，這些收益是由特殊計劃推動的。現在，您的第一季度指導指向該業務相對顯著的減速。你能談談這裡的策略以及特別是上個月勢頭的可持續性嗎？

Yes. Let me talk about the quarter and then how it flows through to the year. From the quarter point of view, the underlying advertising revenue was up 33%. The good news from my perspective was that really it was across the board. So we had good search volumes. We had good monetization of those search volumes. So we are lapping the transition to adCenter, so we're getting some benefit, if you like, from revenue per search uplift, as well as the overall volumes. And better than that growth rate is also on our Display business, which doesn't tend to get talked about as much. But that was up a healthy number in terms of volume and monetization as well. So it was a good quarter all around.

是的。讓我談談這個季度，然後談談它是如何流向這一年的。從季度來看，基礎廣告收入增長了 33%。從我的角度來看，好消息是它確實是全面的。所以我們有很好的搜索量。我們對這些搜索量進行了很好的貨幣化。因此，我們正在過渡到 adCenter，因此，如果您願意，我們將從每次搜索提升的收入以及整體數量中獲得一些好處。我們的顯示業務也比這個增長率更好，這往往不會被談論太多。但這在數量和貨幣化方面也是一個健康的數字。所以這是一個很好的季度。

Vis-a-vis next year, inside the guidance is revenue growth in advertising of greater than 20%. Now the comparables start to get harder because we're off a bigger base, obviously, and we don't have for the full year quite as strong a momentum in terms of the adCenter transition. I would just say mid 20s or higher is a good result for the business overall. And I think that clearly if we can do better than that, that's great, but that's not a bad result.

與明年相比，指導意見是廣告收入增長超過 20%。現在，可比性開始變得更加困難，因為顯然我們的基礎更大，而且在 adCenter 過渡方面，我們全年沒有那麼強勁的勢頭。我只想說 20 多歲或更高對整體業務來說是一個不錯的結果。我認為很明顯，如果我們能做得更好，那很好，但這不是一個壞結果。

In terms of the last part of your question, on how much were we assisted in the fourth quarter by some of the one-off impacts, we were certainly helped by that. But I think the interesting thing from my point of view, is not necessarily the sustainability of that, because that was one or two months. It's just that when we put a new product into the marketplace, it is capable of shifting share. So I'm certainly not going to extrapolate that through next year. But I think it is interesting from, if you like, an experiment point of view that when we tried something different we were able to get some movement in the market in a relatively short period of time.

關於你問題的最後一部分，關於我們在第四季度受到一些一次性影響的幫助有多大，我們當然得到了幫助。但我認為，從我的角度來看，有趣的事情不一定是可持續性，因為那是一兩個月。只是當我們將新產品投放市場時，它能夠轉移份額。因此，我當然不會將其推斷到明年。但如果你願意，我認為從實驗的角度來看很有趣，當我們嘗試不同的東西時，我們能夠在相對較短的時間內在市場上取得一些進展。

I haven't built a lot of that into next year, and we will wait to see if other, more sustainable products have some influence. But overall, I think next year having revenue, our advertising growing at greater than 20% off a higher base is at least a good starting point at this stage.

明年我還沒有建立很多，我們將拭目以待，看看其他更可持續的產品是否有一些影響。但總的來說，我認為明年有收入，我們的廣告在更高的基礎上增長超過 20% 至少是現階段的一個很好的起點。

Heather Bellini with UBS.

瑞銀的希瑟·貝里尼。

I was wondering if you could comment on two things. One, where do you think the premium mix could go, going from 71%, I believe, to 72% this quarter? Again, that is much higher than what you have forecasted before you went into the Vista cycle. But where do you think we could go, especially if we get into the heart of consumer spending maybe more around back to school and holiday?

我想知道你是否可以評論兩件事。一，你認為溢價組合會去哪裡，從我相信的 71% 到本季度的 72%？同樣，這比您進入 Vista 週期之前的預測要高得多。但是你認為我們可以去哪裡，特別是如果我們進入消費者支出的核心，可能更多地回到學校和假期？

Then also could you comment on the significance of SP 1 for Vista adoption, and do you have any comments on timing?

那麼您能否評論一下 SP 1 對於採用 Vista 的意義，您對時間安排有何評論？

Sure. On the premium mix we think that sort of level is sustainable through next year. However, we would expect the same sort of premium mix next year as for this year. And we will see a difference in business premium versus consumer premium. As we talked about last quarter, we thought we would give you more visibility into what is happening in those two different segments, or those two different components of the premium mix, because they have such different monetization impact. The business premium having much more significance than the consumer premium.

當然。在溢價組合上，我們認為這種水平在明年是可持續的。但是，我們預計明年的保費組合與今年相同。我們將看到商業溢價與消費者溢價的差異。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們認為我們會讓您更清楚地了解這兩個不同細分市場或高端組合的這兩個不同組成部分的情況，因為它們具有如此不同的貨幣化影響。商業溢價比消費者溢價更重要。

So Colleen shared with you the makeup of those numbers. In terms of next year, because we expect Consumer growth to be higher than Business growth in terms of PCs, we would still expect a mix shift in the premium segment towards the consumer premium, but the overall premium mix for the Company to be relatively healthy and high in the 70%-odd range. So we think that is sustainable at that level, but with a change inside Business and Consumer.

所以科琳與你分享了這些數字的構成。就明年而言，由於我們預計個人電腦的消費者增長將高於業務增長，我們仍預計高端市場將轉向消費者高端，但公司的整體高端組合相對健康並且在 70% 的範圍內很高。所以我們認為這在那個層面上是可持續的，但隨著企業和消費者內部的變化。

In terms of SP 1, and clearly there will be an SP 1, but at this stage were not talking about exactly when that is. We don't see it as a massive driver of uptake in its own right. It's early days yet, and we are broadly happy with how we are seeing Vista adoption in both the Consumer and the Business point of view. And we have always expected -- and I think we have talked about this for the last two or three quarters -- that the Business uptake would be driven by their needs rather than by the availability of Vista, per se. So that is going to be progressive over the next 12 to 18 months, and I think will be relatively independent of when the first service pack comes out.

就 SP 1 而言，顯然會有一個 SP 1，但現階段並沒有談論確切的時間。我們並不認為它本身就是一個巨大的吸收驅動力。現在還為時過早，我們很高興看到從消費者和企業的角度來看 Vista 的採用情況。我們一直期望——而且我認為我們在過去兩三個季度已經討論過這個問題——業務的吸收將由他們的需求而不是由 Vista 本身的可用性驅動。所以這將在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內逐步推進，我認為這將相對獨立於第一個服務包何時發布。

Sarah Friar with Goldman Sachs.

高盛的莎拉·弗萊爾。

In the Entertainment and Device area, that guidance for fiscal year 2008 is quite a wide spread. Chris, could you just talk us through what the major swing factors will be? Also you did say profitability in the segment for FY 2008. But can you give us any sense on timing? Could Halo 3 launching at the end of September help drive profitability as early as December?

在娛樂和設備領域，2008 財年的指導非常廣泛。克里斯，你能告訴我們主要的搖擺因素是什麼嗎？您還提到了 2008 財年該細分市場的盈利能力。但是您能告訴我們時間安排嗎？光環 3 於 9 月底推出是否有助於最早在 12 月推動盈利？

Yes, it's profitability overall for the year, and that's the key from my point of view. Because of the seasonality in that business, you could see some quite different swings in profitability on a quarter-by-quarter basis, not only because of Halo 3 that you mentioned, but obviously the Christmas quarter is a substantial one from a console and gaming point of view. So it won't necessarily be a linear improvement during the course of the year, although in terms of COGS it will help. So that the COGS will progressively decrease through the year, but the volumes will go up and down as the quarters. So the profitability overall for the year, but it will be nonlinear in the way that it rolls out during the course of the year.

是的，這是今年的整體盈利能力，從我的角度來看，這是關鍵。由於該業務的季節性，您可能會看到每個季度的盈利能力出現一些完全不同的波動，這不僅是因為您提到的 Halo 3，而且顯然聖誕節季度是來自遊戲機和遊戲的重要季度觀點看法。因此，它不一定是一年中的線性改進，儘管就 COGS 而言它會有所幫助。因此，銷貨成本將在全年逐步減少，但數量會隨著季度的增長而上升和下降。因此，今年的整體盈利能力，但它在一年中推出的方式將是非線性的。

In terms of the width of the guidance, I just say is purposeful. It's one of those businesses which, from a demand point of view is relatively hard to anticipate. Obviously, console demand in itself is a big variable there. But the other thing, and better than that is, to be honest with you, we have a pricing strategy for the next 12 to 24 months that is embedded in that, and our console strategy as well. Those two are related to each other. And at this stage we are keeping relatively quiet about that because from a competitive point of view, we really don't want to signal anything. So that will become more clear as the year comes through. But at this stage we are keeping, if you like, a relatively wide range to accommodate that.

就引導的寬度而言，我只是說是有目的的。從需求的角度來看，這是相對難以預料的業務之一。顯然，控制台需求本身就是一個很大的變量。但另一件事，比這更好的是，老實說，我們有一個嵌入其中的未來 12 到 24 個月的定價策略，以及我們的控制台策略。這兩者是相互關聯的。在這個階段，我們對此保持相對安靜，因為從競爭的角度來看，我們真的不想發出任何信號。因此，隨著這一年的過去，這一點將變得更加清晰。但是在這個階段，如果您願意，我們會保留一個相對較寬的範圍來適應這種情況。

Could I ask one more quick follow-up? Just on the macroenvironment, a number of other technologists have alluded to a much better spending backdrop. I would just loved to hear your quick thoughts on any changes you're seeing in the various geographic areas, where you're seeing strength and weakness?

我可以再問一個快速跟進嗎？就宏觀環境而言，許多其他技術專家都提到了更好的支出背景。我很想听聽您對您在各個地理區域看到的任何變化的快速想法，您在哪裡看到優勢和劣勢？

We are certainly seeing strength in all of the emerging markets. For example, countries like Russia, which is just had a phenomenal year for us. So some of those Eastern Europe countries, South America and obviously the Asian countries it's very strong from our perspective, albeit off a relatively small basis.

我們當然看到了所有新興市場的實力。例如，像俄羅斯這樣的國家，對我們來說剛剛度過了非凡的一年。因此，從我們的角度來看，其中一些東歐國家、南美和顯然的亞洲國家非常強大，儘管基礎相對較小。

In terms of overall level of spending, we aren't seeing a significant positive there. The thing we are saying that we believe that we are seeing is a higher share of wallet from some of our customers, and that is reflected in the relatively high renewals that we're getting and people's uptake of the products. So from our field's point of view, we're seeing a really healthy and encouraging trend from just being a desktop software provider to being much more of an infrastructure provider to enterprises. So we are not necessarily seeing the amount of their spending going up, but we believe that the amount that they are spending with us on the suite of products that we have got, not only the ones obviously that we've launched in the last couple of years, but the ones that are coming up, is increasing in what we consider to be a promising way.

就整體支出水平而言，我們沒有看到明顯的積極因素。我們所說的我們相信我們看到的是來自我們的一些客戶的更高份額的錢包，這反映在我們獲得的相對較高的更新和人們對產品的接受度上。因此，從我們領域的角度來看，我們看到了一個非常健康和令人鼓舞的趨勢，從僅僅成為桌面軟件提供商到更多地成為企業的基礎設施提供商。因此，我們不一定會看到他們的支出增加，但我們相信他們與我們一起在我們擁有的產品套件上花費的金額，不僅僅是我們在上一對明顯推出的產品幾年，但即將到來的，正在以我們認為有前途的方式增加。

Brent Thill with Citigroup.

花旗集團的布倫特希爾。

Chris, on the Client guidance for fiscal 2008, it seems it's fairly prudent considering the industry is expecting a reacceleration in PC unit growth in the second half of this year. Can you just talk through some of the characteristics of why you're expecting that line to slow down more than any of the other lines that you've given guidance for the year?

克里斯，關於 2008 財年的客戶指導，考慮到行業預計今年下半年 PC 單位增長將重新加速，這似乎是相當謹慎的。您能否談談為什麼您期望該線路比您今年提供指導的任何其他線路減速更多的一些特徵？

If you start with PC unit growth rates, and that's clearly the main driver inside there, we're expecting for next year, as I mentioned on the call, around 9% to 11%. So we're expecting very much in line with industry expectations.

如果你從個人電腦單位增長率開始，這顯然是其中的主要驅動力，正如我在電話會議上提到的，我們預計明年將達到 9% 到 11% 左右。因此，我們的期望非常符合行業預期。

We think we can grow OEM units at the top end of that range because of our continued progress that we make in piracy. So we think we can grow units at the top end of that range. And then we will be assisted to some extent by the Vista revenue recognition that we talked about on the last couple of calls.

我們認為，由於我們在盜版方面取得的持續進展，我們可以在該範圍的高端發展 OEM 單位。所以我們認為我們可以在該範圍的高端增長單位。然後，我們在最近幾次電話會議中談到的 Vista 收入確認將在一定程度上為我們提供幫助。

But because of the premium mix change, and this is something that Steve obviously alluded to in February and we have talked a bit about in the last few calls, we will lose a couple a of percentage points between OEM unit growth and OEM revenue growth. You know, the strong drive in emerging markets -- growth in emerging markets, and consumers will take a little bit of a shaving relative to -- from revenue relative to units.

但由於溢價組合的變化，這顯然是史蒂夫在 2 月份提到的，我們在最近幾次電話會議中談到了一點，我們將在 OEM 單位增長和 OEM 收入增長之間損失幾個百分點。你知道，新興市場的強勁驅動力——新興市場的增長，以及消費者相對於——收入相對於單位數量的增長將有所減少。

Then lastly, from our perspective in terms of revenue growth, the Commercial and Retail will have a strong comparable in FY 2007. So the growth rate will be relatively hard to repeat, given the [FTP] spike that we had in fiscal year 2007.

最後，從我們的收入增長角度來看，商業和零售在 2007 財年將具有很強的可比性。因此，鑑於我們在 2007 財年的 [FTP] 飆升，增長率將相對難以重複。

So there's a lot of moving parts in the way that we look at it. But if you start with PC unit growth, we think we can grow OEM units at the top end of that. And we think we can grow Client revenue overall broadly equal to OEM units at around that 9% to 10% mark. So we think that will be a good, healthy result from our perspective. But in order to get outperformance on that, we would have to see PC unit at stronger levels than that.

所以我們看待它的方式有很多活動部分。但是，如果您從 PC 單位增長開始，我們認為我們可以在最高端增長 OEM 單位。而且我們認為我們可以將客戶收入總體上大致相當於 OEM 單位的 9% 到 10% 左右。因此，從我們的角度來看，我們認為這將是一個良好、健康的結果。但為了在這方面表現出色，我們必須看到 PC 部門的水平比這更高。

Just a quick follow-up. Longhorn is still on track for calendar year 2007 ship?

只是快速跟進。 Longhorn 是否還在為 2007 日曆年發貨？

No update on the Longhorn. You can expect second half calendar 2007 for RTM.

Longhorn沒有更新。您可以期待 RTM 的 2007 年下半年日曆。

John DiFucci with Bear Stearns.

John DiFucci 與貝爾斯登。

I have a question, Chris, on cash flow. It looks like other current assets are down a little bit. And there's a note right at the end of the press release on your -- or the report on your website. I just want to make sure I understood it.

克里斯，我有一個關於現金流的問題。看起來其他流動資產略有下降。在您的新聞稿或您網站上的報告的末尾有一條說明。我只是想確保我理解它。

It looks like this year, relative to a year ago, benefited by $1.2 billion because you were not building Xbox inventory. So just -- if you could confirm that that's actually true. And is that -- and we know that you had some channel issues where there was an oversupply to the channel in the December quarter. But this 35% of that $1 billion charge due to inventory valuation adjustment, is this at all related to that? And what exactly are you adjusting here? Is that in any way allude to what you were talking about as far as your pricing strategy going forward? Or do you have to go in and fix all these things? Does that have to do with the three flashing light issue or just any issue? Sorry for such a long one there.

與一年前相比，今年似乎受益了 12 億美元，因為您沒有建立 Xbox 庫存。所以只是 - 如果你能確認那是真的。就是這樣 - 我們知道您在 12 月季度出現了一些渠道問題，即渠道供過於求。但是，由於庫存估值調整，這 10 億美元費用中的 35% 與此有關嗎？你到底在這裡調整了什麼？就您未來的定價策略而言，這是否暗示了您所談論的內容？還是你必須進去修理所有這些東西？這與三個閃光燈問題或任何問題有關嗎？對不起，那裡有這麼長的一個。

Let me try and strike all the components, and hope that I get them all. In terms of the cash flow impact, yes, there's a difference between a build inventory a year ago and a declining inventory situation this year. So that is certainly true from the cash flow point of view.

讓我試著敲擊所有的組件，並希望我能把它們全部搞定。就現金流的影響而言，是的，一年前的庫存與今年的庫存下降之間存在差異。所以從現金流的角度來看，這當然是正確的。

In terms of the write-down component of the charge associated with Xbox, that is a write-down on the balance sheet of the holding costs of those Xbox. So that's a non-cash charge, clearly, but it does have an influence on the overall carrying costs of the boxes that are associated with that. So that is a direct charge to that.

就與 Xbox 相關的費用的減記部分而言，這是在資產負債表上減記這些 Xbox 的持有成本。所以這顯然是一項非現金費用，但它確實會影響與之相關的箱子的整體運輸成本。所以這是直接收費的。

In terms of the linkage between that and the three flashing red lights, it's not so much a direct linkage, there is obviously an indirect linkage in the sense that because of that, people returned them and we need to repair them. But this is very much -- the inventory write-down is very much a write-down of the inventory that we have had returned to date that we believe that we will not be able to sell as a repaired unit, and hence it is impaired from a valuation perspective. It is clearly all part of the same manufacturing issue, but it slightly different from a physical and accounting perspective.

就那和那三個閃紅燈的聯動來說，與其說是直接聯動，倒不如說是間接聯動，就是因為這個，人家退貨了，我們要修。但這非常 - 庫存減記在很大程度上是對我們迄今已退回的庫存的減記，我們認為我們將無法作為維修單位出售，因此已減值從估值的角度。這顯然是同一個製造問題的所有部分，但從物理和會計的角度來看略有不同。

Did I grab all the parts of your question?

我抓住了你問題的所有部分嗎？

I think you did, but one of the things here with this write-down and some of those other components, the other 15% -- I'm having a hard time understanding why this is like a special charge and it's taken out of the non-GAAP numbers for you.

我想你做到了，但是這裡有一個關於這個減記和一些其他組成部分的事情，另外 15%——我很難理解為什麼這就像一個特殊費用，它被從非公認會計準則數字為您服務。

I think the important thing from my point of view is the visibility of what we did, and what we tried to do a couple of weeks ago -- I would be happy to go over it again -- is give people all of the components of the charge and what they were. Then, obviously, people can treat them as they see appropriate.

我認為從我的角度來看，重要的是我們所做的事情的可見性，以及我們幾週前嘗試做的事情——我很樂意再回顧一遍——給人們提供收費和他們是什麼。然後，顯然，人們可以按照他們認為合適的方式對待他們。

I think the important thing is that they relate effectively to boxes that have already been produced, so have been produced in the fiscal year 2006 or fiscal year 2007 area. And from a GAAP point of view it is clearly a charge. And the important thing from my perspective is that people understand the magnitude of the charge, and the major components of it in terms of what people can expect in the future will be a cash cost and what is simply an accounting charge against balance sheet items now. So people, depending on whether they are looking at cash flow, like it sounds like you are, or balance sheet, or overall GAAP accounting, they have got, hopefully, all of the major components to slice and dice it the way they want to.

我認為重要的是它們與已經生產的盒子有效地相關，因此已經在 2006 財年或 2007 財年地區生產。從公認會計原則的角度來看，這顯然是一項收費。從我的角度來看，重要的是人們了解收費的幅度，就人們對未來的預期而言，它的主要組成部分將是現金成本，而現在僅僅是對資產負債表項目的會計收費.所以人們，取決於他們是否在關注現金流，就像聽起來一樣，或者資產負債表，或者整體 GAAP 會計，他們希望所有主要組成部分都可以按照他們想要的方式進行切片和切塊.

Adam Holt with JP Morgan.

摩根大通的亞當霍爾特。

I have two questions about expenses and operating margins. You had relatively significant growth in headcount-related expenses, both in the quarter as well as for the year. Could you talk a little bit about what we should expect for headcount growth as we look into next year?

我有兩個關於費用和營業利潤率的問題。無論是在本季度還是在本年度，與員工人數相關的費用都有相對顯著的增長。您能否談談我們對明年員工人數增長的預期？

And secondly, if you look at the midpoint of the guidance for next year, you're looking at maybe 60, 70 basis points of operating margin expansion year on year. How should we think about your strategy or your medium-term market expansion goal, say, over the next several years?

其次，如果您查看明年指導的中點，您可能會看到營業利潤率同比增長 60 到 70 個基點。我們應該如何考慮您的戰略或您的中期市場擴張目標，例如，在未來幾年內？

We will talk more extensively in terms of the years other than next year at FAM. So if I can leave the sort of longer-term picture to then, and then talk of last year and this year, and hopefully that will give you some flavor.

我們將在 FAM 明年以外的年份進行更廣泛的討論。所以，如果我可以把這種長期的畫面留到那時，然後談談去年和今年，希望這會給你一些啟發。

In terms of headcount growth, from my point of view the good trend that we're seeing is a slowing of the headcount growth. So I'm certainly keen to see us grow from lower rates of headcount growth than we have seen in the last couple of years. We got down, on a year-on-year basis in the last quarter, to around 10%. Now that's still relatively high, but relative to, say, our level of revenue growth its much more -- I'm much more comfortable with that than the mid-teen levels that we were seeing six to twelve months ago. So headcount growth is in a better shape than it has been, from my perspective.

在員工人數增長方面，在我看來，我們看到的良好趨勢是員工人數增長放緩。因此，我當然很希望看到我們從比過去幾年更低的員工人數增長率中成長。我們在上個季度同比下降到 10% 左右。現在這仍然相對較高，但相對於我們的收入增長水平要高得多——我比六到十二個月前看到的青少年水平要舒服得多。因此，從我的角度來看，員工人數的增長情況比以往更好。

In terms of next year embedded inside the guidance, as you can imagine, is both headcount growth and cost per head at those more moderated levels. That is going to vary quite differently between the different divisions, though. So, for example, we're building headcount in our Online business, and headcount is relatively flat in our prime business. So you're seeing quite different trends in where the hands are being added, adding up to the overall picture.

正如您可以想像的那樣，就指導中嵌入的明年而言，在那些較為溫和的水平上，員工人數的增長和人均成本都是如此。不過，不同部門之間的情況會大不相同。因此，例如，我們正在在線業務中增加員工人數，而我們主要業務的員工人數相對持平。所以你會看到在添加手的位置上有完全不同的趨勢，加起來就是整體情況。

It's a little similar comment to the margin structure. From my perspective in terms of margins, I think of the business in three parts. There's, if you like, our core businesses of Client, MBD and Server and Tools. Next year, collectively, you should expect their margins to be broadly equal to this year, which I think is a good result when you see what the growth rates are inherent in those businesses. You see EDD moving to profitability, so clearly that's a margin improvement. But obviously, still being very much in an investment phase, so it will be in a loss position, and hence a negative margin next year. Some of the improvements that we're making in EDD, effectively we're reinvesting in other space.

這與保證金結構有點相似。從我的利潤角度來看，我認為業務分為三個部分。如果您願意，我們的核心業務是客戶端、MBD 以及服務器和工具。明年，總體而言，您應該預計他們的利潤率將與今年大致持平，當您看到這些業務固有的增長率時，我認為這是一個很好的結果。您會看到 EDD 轉向盈利，因此很明顯這是利潤率的提高。但顯然，仍處於投資階段，因此將處於虧損狀態，因此明年的利潤率為負。我們在 EDD 中所做的一些改進，實際上是在對其他領域進行再投資。

But mid overall, as you say, midpoint of the guidance will be a slight improvement in margins next year. I'll talk a little bit more next week about how I feel overall for margins longer-term.

但總體而言，正如您所說，指導的中點將是明年利潤率的小幅提高。下週我將更多地談談我對長期利潤率的總體感覺。

Jason Maynard with Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的傑森梅納德。

Chris, Client and Server and Tools both came in a little bit lower than your guidance range. And I was just curious, if you would attribute that maybe to the stronger-than-expected strength in the EAs, or if you think maybe some of the chatter around the timing of SP 1 might have had an impact, or any commentary on what virtualization is going to the server market?

克里斯，客戶端和服務器以及工具都比您的指導範圍低一點。我只是好奇，如果你認為這可能是因為 EA 的實力強於預期，或者你認為圍繞 SP 1 時間安排的一些閒聊可能會產生影響，或者任何關於什麼的評論虛擬化將走向服務器市場？

Actually, Client was very much in line with our guidance. It might have been a shade off, and to the extent that the Vista revenue recognition was a little lower than what we had indicated, but that was in the $20 million to $30 million category. Other than that, it was pretty much online.

實際上，客戶非常符合我們的指導。這可能是一個陰影，並且在某種程度上，Vista 的收入確認比我們所說的要低一些，但那是在 2000 萬美元到 3000 萬美元的類別中。除此之外，它幾乎是在線的。

Server and Tools, you are correct, was a little light, and was for the reasons that you mentioned. But we had a very strong annuity mix of revenue inside Server and Tools, which helped us, obviously, from an unearned perspective; that's one of the reasons why our unearned was so strong, and also one of the reasons, consequently, why we flowed that through to higher revenue for next year. But in the quarter, it hurts us in the sense that when shipping license only that we recognize it all upfront to annuity that we recognize over the length of the contract, we don't get quite as much of a pop. So that is the principal reason why Server and Tools was at the light end of what we guided.

服務器和工具，你是對的，有點輕，是因為你提到的原因。但是我們在服務器和工具內部有非常強大的年金收入組合，這顯然從不勞而獲的角度幫助了我們；這是我們的非勞動收入如此強勁的原因之一，也是我們將其轉化為明年更高收入的原因之一。但是在本季度，這對我們造成了傷害，因為當我們僅在合同期限內承認所有提前年金的許可證時，我們並沒有得到那麼多的流行。這就是為什麼服務器和工具處於我們所指導內容的輕量級的主要原因。

Maybe just a follow-up on that then. When you take into consideration your guidance around unearneds for next year, are you assuming more normal historical type of EA mix rates, or do you think it's going to continue on this path that you saw in Q4?

也許只是一個後續行動。當您考慮您對明年未賺取收入的指導時，您是假設更正常的歷史類型的 EA 混合率，還是您認為它會繼續沿著您在第四季度看到的這條道路？

I think it could well continue. I think that the really interesting trend underlying this, and the strength of the product suite and offering that we have to customers, and their desire and willingness to stay on Enterprise Agreements for all sorts of reasons. Firstly, obviously, the product that we have; secondly, the ones that we have coming out. And people are clearly focused on Vista and Office as the big products that we've launched.

我認為它很可能會繼續下去。我認為這背後的真正有趣的趨勢，以及我們為客戶提供的產品套件和產品的實力，以及他們出於各種原因繼續遵守企業協議的願望和意願。首先，很明顯，我們擁有的產品；其次，我們已經出來的那些。人們顯然將 Vista 和 Office 視為我們推出的大型產品。

But when you look at next year, which most people wouldn't have thought was a big launch year, and you think about new versions of Visual Studio, new versions of Windows Server, new visions of SQL Server, you have Performance Point, our business intelligence coming out, CRM LIVE -- there's a lot of different products that are appealing from a customer point of view. And staying on annuity also helps them from an administration and cost perspective.

但是當你看到明年，大多數人不會認為這是一個重要的發布年，你會想到 Visual Studio 的新版本、Windows Server 的新版本、SQL Server 的新願景，你有 Performance Point，我們的商業智能的出現，CRM LIVE——從客戶的角度來看，有很多不同的產品很有吸引力。從管理和成本的角度來看，保持年金也有助於他們。

So I think there's lots of good reasons to think that we're seeing a potentially more sustainable trend on annuity mix, which hurts us a little bit in terms of upfront revenue recognition, but in terms of the overall health of the business, it is very positive from my perspective.

因此，我認為有很多充分的理由認為，我們正在看到年金組合可能更可持續的趨勢，這在前期收入確認方面對我們造成了一點傷害，但就業務的整體健康而言，它是從我的角度來看非常積極。

Kash Rangan with Merrill Lynch.

卡什蘭根與美林證券。

Just an observation; I'm just looking to get your explanation behind it. The rev rec positive change to the Client businesses seems to have changed relative to your earlier guidance. I'm looking at the presentation; it says $540 million. The previous guidance was for $660 million of positive change from the rev rec. Does that mean that you've made any changes in your assumptions of Vista relatives to XP in your mix for fiscal 2008 Client guidance?

只是一個觀察；我只是想得到你的解釋。相對於您之前的指導，客戶業務的 rev rec 積極變化似乎發生了變化。我正在看演示文稿；它說5.4億美元。之前的指導是從 rev rec 中獲得 6.6 億美元的積極變化。這是否意味著您在 2008 財年客戶指南的組合中對 Vista 相對於 XP 的假設進行了任何更改？

And as it relates to that, maybe if you could comment on, Chris, how are you seeing adoption of Vista in the Enterprise? Because it occurs to me that I think you have given us a very neat explanation as to how you get to the Client guidance. You have parsed out different elements. But the one piece that could be a swing factor is the business adoption seems like if we get better business adoption going into 2008, you might have a positive swing factor. I just was wondering if you had any comments on what kind of update we should expect that could cause the business premium mix to shift towards the positive. So it is really a two-part question there. Sorry about that.

與此相關，如果您可以評論一下，克里斯，您如何看待 Vista 在企業中的採用？因為在我看來，我認為您已經給我們一個非常簡潔的解釋，說明您如何獲得客戶指導。您已經解析出不同的元素。但是，可能是一個搖擺因素是業務採用似乎如果我們在 2008 年獲得更好的業務採用，你可能會有一個積極的搖擺因素。我只是想知道您是否對我們應該期待什麼樣的更新有任何意見，這可能會導致業務溢價組合轉向積極。所以這實際上是一個由兩部分組成的問題。對於那個很抱歉。

I'll cover both of them, if I can. In terms of the unearned, you're absolutely right. As we went from target seating, which we do around the March timeframe, the budgeting which we do -- last month, we fine-tuned the Vista/XP mix for next year. And we changed it from 85% to 78%. Now it's a lower number, but it's still a very high number overall from our perspective. So 78% Vista mix in terms of sales next year.

如果可以的話，我會涵蓋他們兩個。在不勞而獲方面，你是絕對正確的。當我們從目標座位開始時，我們在 3 月的時間範圍內進行，我們在上個月進行的預算編制，我們微調了明年的 Vista/XP 組合。我們將其從 85% 更改為 78%。現在它是一個較低的數字，但從我們的角度來看，它仍然是一個非常高的數字。所以 78% 的 Vista 組合明年的銷售額。

Because of that change, then the amount of undelivered element that comes from Vista is slightly lower than it would be otherwise. The underlying sales are still exactly the same, but that accounting impact, as you correctly say, decreases from $660 million to $540 million. So from our point of view it's good that our outlook has pretty much exactly the same revenue overall, but the composition as a result of the accounting recognition is slightly different.

由於這種變化，來自 Vista 的未交付元素的數量會略低於其他情況。基本銷售額仍然完全相同，但正如您正確地說的那樣，會計影響從 6.6 億美元減少到 5.4 億美元。因此，從我們的角度來看，我們的前景總體上具有幾乎完全相同的收入是很好的，但由於會計確認而導致的構成略有不同。

In terms of the adoption from Business that is a slightly different parameter. Obviously, those two are liked to each other. And it's early days here, And we're seeing what we consider to be good customer response. But the next 12 to 18 months is really going to be the time when people are going to be looking seriously to roll it out. Looking out at the first stage, we think it's early days, but it's good. Could there be some upside there if we see businesses adopt it, not necessarily earlier, but had a refresh cycle which is a bit stronger than it is, and hence we get a bit more business premium relative to customer premium? Yes. That's not so much a rollout thing because we tend to get paid either way for XP or Vista. But it could help with the overall premium mix that I talked about a few minutes ago.

就業務的採用而言，這是一個略有不同的參數。很顯然，這兩個人是互相喜歡的。現在還處於早期階段，我們正在看到我們認為是良好的客戶反應。但接下來的 12 到 18 個月確實將是人們認真考慮推出它的時候。展望第一階段，我們認為現在還為時過早，但還不錯。如果我們看到企業採用它，是否有一些好處，不一定更早，但更新周期比它強一點，因此我們獲得的業務溢價相對於客戶溢價更多？是的。這並不是一個推出的事情，因為我們傾向於從 XP 或 Vista 中獲得報酬。但它可以幫助我幾分鐘前談到的整體優質組合。

That's a lot different than the fiscal 2008 forecast, right?

這與 2008 財年的預測有很大不同，對吧？

Correct, yes.

正確，是的。

We have time for one last question, please, operator.

我們有時間回答最後一個問題，請接線員。

Kirk Materne with Bank of America.

美國銀行的柯克·馬特恩。

And maybe this is a little bit just on a follow-up on Kash's question. But on the business premium mix, can you give us an idea of what is in your forecast? It seems that your assumptions for the actual unit side of the business are pretty conservative in light of what you all have seen. Have you made any assumptions in terms of the premium mix getting better? It seems -- I think it was down 3% this quarter. Is that forecast to get a little better as we head into fiscal '08, or are you assuming it sort of stays at the same rate? And if it does get better that is sort of upside to what you are looking for?

也許這只是對 Kash 問題的後續跟進。但是關於業務溢價組合，您能否告訴我們您的預測是什麼？鑑於你們所看到的情況，您對業務實際單位方面的假設似乎相當保守。您是否對保費組合變得更好做出任何假設？看來——我認為本季度下降了 3%。隨著我們進入 08 財年，這個預測會變得更好，還是你假設它會保持相同的速度？如果它確實變得更好，那對你正在尋找的東西有好處嗎？

In terms of the overall premium mix, I'd say it's going to be in line with fiscal year 2007, which was 58% for the year. So plus or minus a percentage here or there, I think it's going to be broadly in line next year with what it was this year.

就整體保費組合而言，我認為這將與 2007 財年保持一致，該財年為 58%。所以在這里或那裡加上或減去一個百分比，我認為明年將與今年大致一致。

As we have with our forecasts, and clearly external ones may differ, in terms of the Business and Consumer mix we would see business premium being down slightly and consumer premium being up. So it's the same trend that we saw this year. That's entirely driven by the fact that we expect the Consumer segment to grow faster than the Business segment, so therefore by definition the percentage will increase in favor relative to the customers.

正如我們的預測一樣，顯然外部預測可能會有所不同，就商業和消費者組合而言，我們將看到商業溢價略有下降而消費者溢價上升。所以這與我們今年看到的趨勢相同。這完全是因為我們預計消費者部門的增長速度將快於商業部門，因此根據定義，相對於客戶而言，該百分比將增加。

That could change around a bit. We're relatively conservative, I think, on Business growth overall, but I think it's appropriately conservative. We are seeing Consumer sales consistently outpacing Business sales for a number of years now, and I think that's the right starting place. Now obviously I would love to see some upside there, to the extent that we get a good price for business premium, but we have built-in what I think is an appropriate mix going forward.

這可能會有所改變。我認為，我們在整體業務增長方面相對保守，但我認為這是適當的保守。多年來，我們看到消費者銷售額一直超過商業銷售額，我認為這是正確的起點。現在很明顯，我希望在那裡看到一些好處，在某種程度上我們可以獲得一個好的商業溢價價格，但我們已經內置了我認為未來的適當組合。

Maybe just one follow-up on that. In terms of the business premium, is there any gating factors from, say, a technology or cost standpoint, meaning I think the Enterprise Edition comes along with Software Assurance. Is there anything structurally that's keeping people from going to a higher premium mix on the business side, or is it simply just an adoption issue?

也許只是一個後續行動。就業務溢價而言，是否有任何來自技術或成本角度的限制因素，這意味著我認為企業版與軟件保障一起出現。有什麼結構性的因素阻止人們在業務方面採用更高的溢價組合，還是僅僅是採用問題？

Well, you have two impacts. Consumers tend to buy Consumer, and Businesses tend to buy Business SKUs. So you've got that mix impact. Inside businesses, there's nothing structurally which is stopping them from buying one particular SKUs or another. You are right, the Software Assurance gets the Enterprises Edition, which most large businesses would favor. But it's about the features; it's not about the, if you like, the technology that probably drives the decision as to which SKU to take.

好吧，你有兩個影響。消費者傾向於購買消費者，而企業傾向於購買商業 SKU。所以你有那種混合影響。在企業內部，沒有什麼結構可以阻止他們購買一個或另一個特定的 SKU。您是對的，軟件保障獲得了大多數大型企業都會青睞的企業版。但這是關於功能的；如果您願意，這與可能推動決定採用哪個 SKU 的技術無關。

Thanks to everyone for your participation in today's call. If you have any further questions, please feel free to call me or my team directly. As I mentioned at the beginning of this call, this conference call will be available on replay at our Investor Relations website through close of business, July 19th, 2008.

感謝大家參與今天的電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時直接致電我或我的團隊。正如我在本次電話會議開始時提到的，本次電話會議將於 2008 年 7 月 19 日收盤時在我們的投資者關係網站上重播。

In addition, you can hear the replay by diving 866-517-3727 or, for international calls dial 203-369-2039. The dial-in replay will be available through the close of business, July 27th, 2007.

此外，您可以通過潛水 866-517-3727 或國際電話撥打 203-369-2039 來收聽重播。撥入重播將在 2007 年 7 月 27 日營業結束時提供。

Thanks again for joining us today. And we look forward to seeing you next week at financial analyst meeting.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。我們期待在下週的金融分析師會議上見到你。

Thank you. This does conclude today's Microsoft conference call. We thank you for your participation.

謝謝你。這確實結束了今天的微軟電話會議。我們感謝您的參與。