Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the MPC Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Sheila, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Kristina Kazarian. Kristina, you may begin.

    歡迎參加 MPC 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫希拉,我將擔任您今天通話的接線生。 (操作員說明)請注意,本次會議正在錄製中。我現在將把電話轉給克里斯蒂娜·卡扎里安。克里斯蒂娜,你可以開始了。

  • Kristina Anna Kazarian - VP of Finance & IR

    Kristina Anna Kazarian - VP of Finance & IR

  • Welcome to the Marathon Petroleum Corporation Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. The slides that accompany this call can be found on our website at marathonpetroleum.com under the Investors tab. Joining me on the call today are Michael Hennigan, CEO; Maryann Mannen, CFO and other members of the executive team. We invite you to read the safe harbor statements on Slide 2. We will be making forward-looking statements today. Actual results may differ. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included there as well as in our filings with the SEC. References to MPC's refining utilization for the third quarter as well as fourth quarter guidance now include the addition of approximately 40,000 barrels a day of capacity related to STAR in our Gulf Coast region.

    歡迎參加馬拉松石油公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。本次電話會議附帶的幻燈片可以在我們的網站 marathonpetroleum.com 的「投資者」標籤下找到。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是執行長 Michael Hennigan; Maryann Mannen,財務長和執行團隊的其他成員。我們邀請您閱讀投影片 2 上的安全港聲明。我們今天將發表前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能有所不同。可能導致實際結果不同的因素包含在此以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。 MPC 第三季煉油利用率和第四季指引現在包括在墨西哥灣沿岸地區增加與 STAR 相關的每天約 40,000 桶產能。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.

    然後,我會將電話轉給麥克。

  • Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

    Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Kristina. Good morning. Thank you for joining our call. Beginning with our view on the refining environment. In the third quarter, we saw strong demand and global supply tightness supporting refining margins. Diesel cracks led the barrels inventories remain tight and European distillate production ran below capacity. Globally, oil demand is at a record high as the need for affordable and reliable energy increases throughout the world. In our system, both domestically and within our export business, we are seeing steady demand year-over-year across the gasoline and diesel and demand for jet fuel continues to grow.

    謝謝你,克里斯蒂娜。早安.感謝您加入我們的通話。從我們對煉油環境的看法開始。第三季度,強勁的需求和全球供應緊張支撐了煉油利潤。柴油裂紋導致桶庫存依然緊張,歐洲餾分油產量低於產能。在全球範圍內,隨著世界各地對負擔得起且可靠的能源的需求不斷增加,石油需求創下歷史新高。在我們的系統中,無論是國內還是出口業務,我們看到汽油和柴油的需求逐年穩定,並且對航空燃油的需求持續成長。

  • Global supply remains constrained and global capacity additions have progressed at a slow pace. In the regions where we operate, seasonal butane blending has increased gasoline supply. However, we expect typical seasonal turnarounds to be supportive of cracks. To that end, we have seen 3.5 million barrels of gasoline inventory drawn out of the U.S. system over the past several weeks. OPEC Plus has reduced production adding pressure to medium sour differentials. While crude differentials have generally been narrowing, we have seen WCS widen and we're strategically situated to run heavy Canadian crude at our refineries across pads 2, 3 and 5. As we look towards 2024, we believe an enhanced mid-cycle environment will continue in the U.S. due to the global supply-demand fundamentals and the relative advantages over international sources of supply, including energy costs, feedstock acquisition costs and refinery complexity.

    全球供應仍受到限制,全球產能增加進展緩慢。在我們經營的地區,季節性丁烷混合增加了汽油供應。然而,我們預計典型的季節性轉變將支持裂縫。為此,過去幾週我們已經從美國系統中抽出了 350 萬桶汽油庫存。歐佩克+減產增加了中等含硫量差異的壓力。雖然原油價差普遍在縮小,但我們看到 WCS 正在擴大,而且我們的戰略定位是在 2、3 和 5 號煉油廠運行加拿大重質原油。展望 2024 年,我們相信改善的中期環境將由於全球供需基本面以及相對於國際供應來源的相對優勢,包括能源成本、原料採購成本和煉油廠複雜性,美國的石油供應持續在美國持續成長。

  • Turning to our results. In the third quarter, we delivered strong cash generation across our business. In Refining & Marketing, strong margins, 94% utilization and solid commercial performance led to segment adjusted EBITDA of $4.4 billion or $16.06 per barrel. Our midstream segment delivered durable and growing earnings. This quarter, it generated segment adjusted EBITDA of over $1.5 billion. Year-to-date, our midstream segment EBITDA is up 6% compared to the prior year period. The strength of MPLX's cash flows supported its decision to increase its quarterly distribution by another 10%. With this increase, MPC is expected to receive $2.2 billion of distributions from MPLX annually. MPLX is strategic to MPC's portfolio. Its current pace of cash distributions fully covers MPC's dividend and more than half of our planned 2023 capital program.

    轉向我們的結果。第三季度,我們在整個業務中實現了強勁的現金產生。在煉油和行銷領域,強勁的利潤率、94% 的利用率和穩健的商業業績導致部門調整後 EBITDA 達到 44 億美元或每桶 16.06 美元。我們的中游部門帶來了持久且不斷成長的效益。本季度,其部門調整後 EBITDA 超過 15 億美元。今年迄今為止,我們的中游部門 EBITDA 比去年同期成長了 6%。 MPLX 強勁的現金流支持其將季度分配再增加 10% 的決定。隨著這一增長,MPC 預計每年將從 MPLX 獲得 22 億美元的分配。 MPLX 對 MPC 的產品組合具有戰略意義。目前的現金分配速度完全涵蓋了 MPC 的股息和我們計劃的 2023 年資本計劃的一半以上。

  • We expect MPLX's cash distribution to continue growing as it pursues growth opportunities, which will further enhance the value of this strategic relationship. We believe MPC's current capital allocation priorities are optimal for our shareholders. In the third quarter, we returned $3.1 billion to MPC shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. Last week, we announced an additional $5 billion share repurchase authorization and a 10% increase to MPC's quarterly dividend. With this increase, we have grown our quarterly dividend at over 12% compound annual rate over the past 5 years, which has led our refining peers.

    我們預計 MPLX 在尋求成長機會的同時,其現金分配將持續成長,這將進一步提升此策略關係的價值。我們相信 MPC 目前的資本配置優先事項對於我們的股東來說是最佳的。第三季度,我們透過股利和股票回購向 MPC 股東返還 31 億美元。上週,我們宣布額外授權 50 億美元的股票回購,並將 MPC 的季度股利增加 10%。隨著這一增長,我們的季度股息在過去 5 年中以超過 12% 的複合年增長率增長,這領先於我們的煉油同行。

  • Our overall capital allocation framework remains consistent. We will invest in sustaining our asset base while paying a secure, competitive and growing dividend, we intend to grow the company's earnings and we will exercise strict capital discipline. And beyond these 3 priorities, we are firmly committed to returning excess capital through share repurchases to meaningfully lower our share count.

    我們的整體資本配置架構保持一致。我們將投資維持我們的資產基礎,同時支付安全、有競爭力和不斷增長的股息,我們打算增加公司的收益,我們將實行嚴格的資本紀律。除了這三個優先事項之外,我們堅定地致力於透過股票回購返還多餘資本,以有意義地減少我們的股票數量。

  • Let me also share some of the progress on our low-carbon initiatives. The Martinez renewable fuels facility is being delivered safely, on time and on budget. And by the end of 2023, the facility is expected to produce 730 million gallons per year. At that point, Martinez will be among the largest renewable diesel facilities with a competitive operating profile, robust logistics flexibility and advantaged feedstock slate and should benefit from the global strategic relationship with Neste. Our Dickinson renewable diesel facility is operating well. The facility processed 75% advantaged feed in the third quarter. The nearby Spiritwood soybean processing plant, which is owned through a joint venture with ADM is expected to deliver enough vegetable oil to produce approximately 75 million gallons per year of renewable diesel.

    我還想分享我們在低碳倡議方面取得的一些進展。馬丁內斯再生燃料設施正在安全、按時、按預算交付。到 2023 年底,該工廠預計每年生產 7.3 億加侖。屆時,馬丁內斯將成為最大的再生柴油工廠之一,擁有具有競爭力的營運概況、強大的物流靈活性和優勢的原料板,並應受益於與 Neste 的全球戰略關係。我們的迪金森再生柴油設施運作良好。該工廠第三季加工了 75% 的優勢飼料。附近的 Spiritwood 大豆加工廠是與 ADM 合資擁有的,預計將提供足夠的植物油,每年生產約 7500 萬加侖的可再生柴油。

  • Additionally, we are advancing early-stage developments through our interest in low carbon intensity RNG and other small-scale investments. We believe through these projects, we're taking a disciplined steps to advance our goal to lower the carbon intensity of our operations and the products we manufacture and supply to a growing and evolving market, while operating our current asset base to deliver superior cash flow and meet demands.

    此外,我們也透過對低碳強度 RNG 和其他小規模投資的興趣來推進早期開發。我們相信,透過這些項目,我們正在採取嚴格的步驟來推進我們的目標,即降低我們的營運以及我們為不斷發展的市場製造和供應的產品的碳強度,同時運營我們現有的資產基礎以提供卓越的現金流並滿足要求。

  • At this point, I'll turn the call over to Maryann.

    此時,我會將電話轉給瑪麗安。

  • Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

    Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Mike. Moving to third quarter highlights. Slide 5 provides a summary of our financial results. This morning, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $8.14. This quarter's results were adjusted to exclude a $106 million gain on sale of MPC's 25% interest in the South Texas Gateway Terminal as well as $63 million of response costs associated with our unplanned outage at Garyville. These adjustments reduced our reported adjusted earnings by $0.14 per share.

    謝謝,麥克。轉向第三季亮點。幻燈片 5 提供了我們的財務表現摘要。今天早上,我們報告調整後每股收益為 8.14 美元。本季的業績經過調整,不包括出售 MPC 南德州門戶碼頭 25% 權益而獲得的 1.06 億美元收益,以及與加里維爾計劃外停運相關的 6,300 萬美元響應成本。這些調整使我們報告的調整後每股收益減少了 0.14 美元。

  • Adjusted EBITDA was $5.7 billion for the quarter, and cash flow from operations, excluding favorable working capital changes, was over $4.3 billion. During the quarter, we returned $297 million to shareholders through dividend payments and repurchased over $2.8 billion of our shares. And from May 2021 through October 27, we have repurchased 285 million shares or approximately 44% of the shares outstanding.

    本季調整後 EBITDA 為 57 億美元,營運現金流(不包括有利的營運資本變動)超過 43 億美元。本季度,我們透過股利支付向股東返還 2.97 億美元,並回購了超過 28 億美元的股票。從2021年5月到10月27日,我們回購了2.85億股股票,約佔已發行股票的44%。

  • Slide 6 shows the reconciliation between net income and adjusted EBITDA, and as well as the sequential change in adjusted EBITDA from second quarter 2023 to third quarter 2023. Adjusted EBITDA was higher sequentially by approximately $1.2 billion driven by higher R&M margins. Corporate expenses were higher sequentially by $40 million, primarily due to a charge related to valuation of existing performance-based stock compensation expense. The tax rate for the third quarter was 22%, resulting in a tax provision of approximately $1 billion.

    投影片6 顯示了淨利潤與調整後EBITDA 之間的調節,以及從2023 年第二季到2023 年第三季調整後EBITDA 的連續變化。由於R&M 利潤率上升,調整後EBITDA 連續增加約12 億美元。公司費用比上一季增加了 4000 萬美元,主要是由於與現有基於業績的股票補償費用的估值相關的費用。第三季的稅率為22%,稅金撥備約10億美元。

  • Moving to our segment results. Slide 7 provides an overview of our Refining & Marketing segment. Our refining assets ran at 94% utilization, processing nearly 2.8 million barrels of crude per day at our 13 refineries. Sequentially, per barrel margins were higher across all regions driven by higher crack spread. Capture was 93%. Refining operating costs were $5.14 per barrel in the third quarter, flat sequentially. We did have unplanned downtime during the quarter, impacting our 2 largest refineries which resulted in lost crude throughput of 4.7 million barrels due to the Galveston Bay reformer outage and 2.1 million barrels at Garyville.

    轉向我們的細分結果。幻燈片 7 概述了我們的煉油和行銷部門。我們的煉油廠資產利用率為 94%,我們的 13 家煉油廠每天處理近 280 萬桶原油。隨後,由於裂解價差擴大,所有地區的每桶利潤均較高。捕獲率為93%。第三季煉油營運成本為每桶 5.14 美元,與上一季持平。本季我們確實發生了計畫外停機,影響了我們最大的兩家煉油廠,由於加爾維斯頓灣重整器停運,導致原油吞吐量損失470 萬桶,加里維爾原油吞吐量損失210 萬桶。

  • Additionally, this downtime resulted in a headwind to our overall capture. We began construction activities on the reform or repair about 3 months after the event, once regulators gave us clearance and we were able to finalize the required repairs. Since then, repairs have progressed as planned and during this outage, we pulled forward turnaround work into the third and fourth quarters which had been scheduled in the first quarter of 2024.

    此外,這次停機對我們的整體捕獲造成了不利影響。事件發生後大約 3 個月,監管機構給予我們許可並且我們能夠完成所需的維修後,我們開始了改造或維修的施工活動。此後,維修工作按計劃進行,在這次停電期間,我們將原定於 2024 年第一季進行的周轉工作推遲到了第三和第四季度。

  • Slide 8 provides an overview of our refining and marketing margin capture this quarter, which was 93%. Our commercial team executed effectively despite weak secondary product pricing and refinery downtime, which weighed on capture this quarter. Capture results will fluctuate based on market dynamics. We believe that the capabilities we have built over the last few years will provide a sustainable advantage. This commitment to commercial performance is foundational, and we expect to continue to see the results.

    投影片 8 概述了本季我們的煉油和行銷利潤率,為 93%。儘管次級產品定價疲軟和煉油廠停工,這對本季的捕獲造成了壓力,但我們的商業團隊仍有效執行。捕獲結果將根據市場動態而波動。我們相信,我們在過去幾年中建立的能力將提供可持續的優勢。這種對商業績效的承諾是基礎性的,我們期望繼續看到成果。

  • Slide 9 shows the change in our Midstream segment adjusted EBITDA versus the second quarter of 2023. Our midstream segment delivered strong third quarter results. Segment adjusted EBITDA was flat sequentially and 3% higher year-over-year, primarily due to higher throughput and rates. Year-to-date, our midstream segment EBITDA is up 6% compared to the prior year period. As Mike mentioned earlier, the growth of MPLX's earnings supported its decision to increase its quarterly distribution by another 10% to $0.85 per unit and MPC expects to receive $2.2 billion in cash from MPLX on an annual basis. Our midstream business continues to grow and generate strong cash flows. We are advancing high-return growth projects anchored in the Marcellus and Permian Basin.

    投影片 9 顯示了我們的中游部門調整後 EBITDA 與 2023 年第二季相比的變化。我們的中游部門第三季業績強勁。部門調整後 EBITDA 環比持平,年增 3%,主要是由於吞吐量和費率提高。今年迄今為止,我們的中游部門 EBITDA 比去年同期成長了 6%。正如麥克之前提到的,MPLX 盈利的增長支持了其將季度分配再增加 10% 至每單位 0.85 美元的決定,MPC 預計每年將從 MPLX 獲得 22 億美元的現金。我們的中游業務持續成長並產生強勁的現金流。我們正在推進以馬塞勒斯和二疊紀盆地為基礎的高回報成長項目。

  • Slide 10 presents the elements of change in our consolidated cash position for the quarter. Operating cash flow, excluding changes in working capital, was over $4.3 billion in the quarter. Working capital was a $609 million tailwind for the quarter, driven primarily by increases in crude oil prices. Year-to-date, working capital has been $1.4 billion source of cash. Capital expenditures and investments totaled $486 million this quarter, consistent with our 2023 outlook. MPC returned nearly $3.1 billion via share repurchases and dividends during the quarter. This represents an approximately 72% payout of the $4.3 billion of operating cash flow, excluding changes in working capital, highlighting our commitment to superior shareholder returns.

    投影片 10 介紹了本季我們綜合現金部位的變動要素。本季營運現金流(不包括營運資本變動)超過 43 億美元。本季營運資金增加 6.09 億美元,主要是由於原油價格上漲。年初至今,營運資金已成為 14 億美元的現金來源。本季資本支出和投資總額為 4.86 億美元,與我們 2023 年的展望一致。 MPC 在本季透過股票回購和股息返還了近 31 億美元。這相當於 43 億美元營運現金流的約 72%(不包括營運資本的變化),凸顯了我們對卓越股東回報的承諾。

  • As of October 27, we have approximately $8.3 billion remaining under our current share repurchase authorization, which includes the additional $5 billion approval announced last week. At the end of the third quarter, MPC had approximately $13.1 billion in consolidated cash and short-term investments. This includes approximately $1 billion of MPLX cash.

    截至 10 月 27 日,我們目前的股票回購授權尚剩餘約 83 億美元,其中包括上周宣布的額外 50 億美元的批准。截至第三季末,MPC 的合併現金和短期投資約為 131 億美元。其中包括約 10 億美元的 MPLX 現金。

  • Turning to guidance on Slide 11. We provide our fourth quarter outlook. We expect crude throughput volumes of over 2.6 million barrels per day, representing utilization of 90%. Utilization is forecasted to be lower than third quarter levels due to turnaround activity, having a higher impact on crude units in the fourth quarter. In the Gulf Coast, with respect to the Galveston Bay reformer, repairs have progressed as planned, we anticipate starting the unit back up in mid-November. Production is expected to ramp over the next several weeks. And guidance anticipates returning to full operating rates by mid-December following advanced turnaround activity.

    轉向幻燈片 11 的指導。我們提供第四季度的展望。我們預計原油吞吐量將超過 260 萬桶/日,利用率為 90%。由於週轉活動,預計利用率將低於第三季度水平,這對第四季度原油產量的影響更大。在墨西哥灣沿岸,加爾維斯頓灣重整器的維修已按計劃進行,我們預計該裝置將於 11 月中旬恢復運作。預計產量將在未來幾週內增加。指導預計,在周轉活動提前推進後,到 12 月中旬將恢復全面開工率。

  • And as I mentioned earlier, during this outage, we plan to continue progressing and complete turnaround work that was previously scheduled for 2024. As a result, planned turnaround expense is now projected to be approximately $300 million in the fourth quarter. Operating cost per barrel in the fourth quarter are expected to be $5.60 higher sequentially due to higher energy cost, particularly on the West Coast as well as higher project-related expenses associated with planned turnaround activity. Distribution costs are expected to be approximately $1.4 billion for the fourth quarter. Corporate costs are expected to be $175 million, representing the sustained reductions that we have made in this area.

    正如我之前提到的,在這次中斷期間,我們計劃繼續推進並完成原定於 2024 年進行的周轉工作。因此,目前預計第四季度的計劃週轉費用約為 3 億美元。由於能源成本上升(特別是在西海岸)以及與計劃週轉活動相關的項目相關費用增加,預計第四季度每桶營運成本將比上一季增加 5.60 美元。第四季的分銷成本預計約為 14 億美元。公司成本預計為 1.75 億美元,代表我們在這一領域的持續削減。

  • With that, let me pass it back to Mike.

    接下來,讓我把它傳回給麥克。

  • Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

    Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

  • In summary, we will continue to prioritize capital investments to ensure the safe and reliable performance of our assets. We'll also invest in projects where we believe there are attractive returns. Through the third quarter, we've invested over $1.7 billion in capital and investment, which includes $390 million of maintenance capital as well as over $900 million on refinery turnarounds in 2023.

    綜上所述,我們將持續優先安排資本投入,確保資產安全可靠。我們還將投資於我們認為具有有吸引力回報的項目。截至第三季度,我們已投入超過 17 億美元的資本和投資,其中包括 3.9 億美元的維護資本以及超過 9 億美元的 2023 年煉油廠週轉資金。

  • Our focus on safety, operational excellence and sustained commercial improvement will position us to capture the enhanced mid-cycle environment, which we expect to continue longer term, given our advantages over marginal sources of supply and growing global demand. MPLX remains a source of growth in our portfolio. Partnerships is expected to distribute over $2.2 billion to MPC annually and is MPLX continues to grow its free cash flow we believe it will continue to have capacity to increase its cash distributions to MPC. We believe MPC is positioned as the refiner investment of choice with the strongest through-cycle cash generation and the ability to deliver superior returns to our shareholders, supported by our firm commitment to return capital.

    我們對安全、卓越營運和持續商業改進的關注將使我們能夠抓住增強的中期環境,鑑於我們相對於邊際供應來源和不斷增長的全球需求的優勢,我們預計這種環境將長期持續。 MPLX 仍然是我們投資組合的成長來源。 Partnerships 預計每年向 MPC 分配超過 22 億美元,如果 MPLX 繼續增加其自由現金流,我們相信它將繼續有能力增加向 MPC 的現金分配。我們相信,在我們對資本回報的堅定承諾的支持下,MPC 被定位為煉油廠投資的首選,具有最強的全週期現金產生能力,並有能力為股東提供卓越的回報。

  • With that, let me turn the call back over to Kristina.

    接下來,讓我把電話轉回給克里斯蒂娜。

  • Kristina Anna Kazarian - VP of Finance & IR

    Kristina Anna Kazarian - VP of Finance & IR

  • Thanks, Mike. (Operator Instructions) And with that, Sheila, we're ready for them.

    謝謝,麥克。 (操作員指示)希拉,我們已經準備好了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Manav Gupta with UBS.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔(Manav Gupta)。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Mike and Maryann, when we look at the refiners, they look at themselves and outperform on different performance metrics. Some look at refining capture. You guys really focused on EBITDA margin per barrel. And when we look at that metric, it looks like for a second year in a row, you will be on top of that table outperforming your peers. So help us understand a little better what's allowing you to drive this outperformance and deliver such strong results when it comes to EBITDA margin per barrel in your refining system?

    麥克和瑪麗安,當我們觀察煉油廠時,他們會審視自己,並在不同的績效指標上表現出色。有些人著眼於精煉捕獲。你們真的很關注每桶 EBITDA 利潤。當我們查看該指標時,您將連續第二年位居榜首,超越您的同行。那麼,請幫助我們更了解是什麼讓您能夠在煉油系統的每桶 EBITDA 利潤方面取得如此出色的表現並取得如此強勁的業績?

  • Rick D. Hessling - SVP of Global Feedstocks

    Rick D. Hessling - SVP of Global Feedstocks

  • Manav, it's Rick. First of all, thank you for the perceptive call out. I will tell you, we are over focused on EBITDA and our results compared to others, and our team will certainly greatly appreciate your call out on this as they've been working on this consistently for years now, Manav, and you're seeing it pull through to our results. So kudos to the team there. I will kind of backtrack and state what we've stated in past quarters, Manav, we've made structural improvements throughout our entire commercial value chain to capture value from the front end, all the way through the back end. And specifically, we're doing so in a way today that is -- it is creating a mindset change within our teams. And we are, I would say, taking more calculated risk with our approach and how we look at everything. There isn't a rock that we're not overturning to see what's under it. And we're assuming Manav, we do everything wrong. And with that mindset, you can create a lot of value in looking at things you haven't looked at in the past.

    馬納夫,我是瑞克。首先,感謝您敏銳的呼籲。我會告訴你,與其他公司相比,我們過度關注EBITDA 和我們的業績,我們的團隊一定會非常感謝你對此的呼籲,因為他們多年來一直在這方面持續努力,馬納夫,你看到它會影響我們的結果。所以對那裡的團隊表示敬意。我將回顧我們在過去幾季中所說的內容,Manav,我們在整個商業價值鏈中進行了結構性改進,以從前端一直到後端獲取價值。具體來說,我們今天這樣做的方式是——在我們的團隊中創造思維方式的改變。我想說的是,我們正在透過我們的方法和我們看待一切的方式來承擔更多經過計算的風險。沒有一塊石頭我們不可以推倒,看看下面有什麼。我們假設馬納夫,我們所做的一切都是錯的。有了這種心態,你就可以在研究你過去沒有研究過的事物時創造很多價值。

  • In the Midwest, specifically, I will really pivot on a couple of things. We have a fully integrated system. We have 4 great refineries in the Midwest. In the third quarter, as you know, they ran very well. We have access to advantaged feedstocks, both Canadian and domestic. And then Brian's team has created exceptional optionality for product placement. So when you combine all those factors together, Manav, you really get to an end result that has been consistent, as you stated over the last several quarters, and we expect it to continue.

    具體來說,在中西部,我將重點放在幾件事上。我們有一個完全整合的系統。我們在中西部有 4 家大型煉油廠。如你所知,第三節他們跑得很好。我們可以獲得加拿大和國內的優勢原料。然後布萊恩的團隊為植入式廣告創造了非凡的選擇性。因此,當馬納夫將所有這些因素結合在一起時,您確實會得到一致的最終結果,正如您在過去幾個季度中所說的那樣,我們預計這種情況會持續下去。

  • Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

    Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

  • Manav, it's Mike. The only thing I would add to what Rick said is we start with the EBITDA per barrel. We want to make sure we're generating as much earnings as we can as we run our assets. Ultimately, though, I care the most about cash generation. I mean it starts with EBITDA per barrel, but the bottom line is, are we generating a significant amount of cash to give us the flexibility to drive shareholder returns. So I think you hit the starting point with EBITDA per barrel, the ending point is generating cash and then having that flexibility.

    馬納夫,是麥克。我對里克所說的唯一要補充的是,我們從每桶 EBITDA 開始。我們希望確保在營運資產的同時產生盡可能多的收入。但歸根究底,我最關心的是現金的產生。我的意思是,它從每桶 EBITDA 開始,但底線是,我們是否能產生大量現金,使我們能夠靈活地推動股東回報。所以我認為你的起點是每桶 EBITDA,終點是產生現金,然後有靈活性。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Perfect. A quick follow-up here. You guys are known for your strong operational performance, 3Q was a little unusual. You had some unplanned incidents. And despite those who delivered a pretty strong beat, but I'm trying to understand, let's say, those incidents would not have happened. Would we have got even a stronger quarter, if you could talk about that.

    完美的。這裡快速跟進。你們以強勁的營運業績而聞名,第三季有點不尋常。你遇到了一些意外事件。儘管那些人表現得相當強勁,但我試圖理解,比方說,這些事件不會發生。如果你能談談這一點的話,我們的季度會不會更加強勁。

  • Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

    Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thank you. It's Maryann, and thanks for the question. You're right. As we shared with you, we did have a couple of unplanned downtime events in the quarter that impacted the Gulf Coast. One, the most significant in terms of its contribution is the Galveston Bay reformer. And then obviously, we had our Garyville. Had we not had those 2 impacts and happy to share a little bit more about those in a moment here. Our capture would have been 6% higher than what we reported, with the lion's share of that capture event, obviously, being the reformer. As I mentioned, 4.7 million barrels in the quarter that we lost.

    是的。謝謝。我是瑪麗安,謝謝你的提問。你說得對。正如我們與您分享的那樣,我們在本季度確實發生了幾起影響墨西哥灣沿岸的計劃外停機事件。一、最重要的貢獻是加爾維斯頓灣重整器。顯然,我們有我們的加里維爾。如果我們沒有受到這兩種影響的話,我們很高興能在這裡分享更多關於這些影響的資訊。我們的捕獲量將比我們報告的高出 6%,顯然,該捕獲事件的最大份額是改革者。正如我所提到的,我們在本季損失了 470 萬桶。

  • And then on Garyville, it's about 2.1 million barrels as we operated at about half rate for just under a week. It took us about -- just back to Galveston Bay for a moment, it took us about 3 months before we were able to begin our work as we -- as the regulators got through their work and then we determined where all the repairs needed to be. So we were about 3 months to the start of getting those activities launched? I hope that answers the question.

    然後在加里維爾,大約有 210 萬桶,因為我們在不到一周的時間內以大約一半的速度運作。我們花了大約 3 個月的時間開始工作,因為監管機構完成了他們的工作,然後我們確定了所有需要維修的地方是。那麼我們距離開始啟動這些活動還有大約 3 個月的時間呢?我希望這能回答這個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we will hear from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

    接下來,我們將聽取美國銀行 Doug Leggate 的演講。

  • Douglas George Blyth Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

    Douglas George Blyth Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

  • Maryann, that last response was actually one of the key things we wanted to hit. So let me try 2 more, if I may. First of all, Mike, in your opening remarks, you talked about demand in your system is pretty strong. I wonder if I could ask you to isolate that to export demand because obviously, that's a fairly big swing factor for the U.S. market in particular. How does outlook in your system?

    瑪麗安,最後的回應實際上是我們想要實現的關鍵目標之一。如果可以的話,讓我再嘗試 2 個。首先,麥克,在您的開場白中,您談到您的系統需求非常強勁。我想知道我是否可以要求您將其與出口需求分開,因為顯然,這對美國市場來說是一個相當大的波動因素。您的系統中的 Outlook 效果如何?

  • Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

    Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Doug, I'll let Brian comment on that.

    是的,道格,我會讓布萊恩對此發表評論。

  • Brian K. Partee - SVP of Global Clean Products

    Brian K. Partee - SVP of Global Clean Products

  • Doug, this is Brian. Good question. So really our theme on demand, both domestically and internationally, is stable and steady. It's been that way really throughout the year. In the quarter, we exported roughly 250,000 barrels a day out of our system in the Gulf Coast despite some operational challenges as noted. About 2/3 of that is distillate. The balance, of course, is gasoline. The demand center in Latin America and the Caribbean really has been strong and resilient and growing throughout the year. They import roughly 2.3 million barrels a day into the system. The U.S. has been about 65% of that. We have come off a little bit in terms of our share into Latin America and the Caribbean in exchange for share into Europe. So we are seeing growth in European imports, as you've probably seen as well, roughly 200,000 barrels a day in the quarter from the U.S. into Europe.

    道格,這是布萊恩。好問題。因此,無論是國內還是國際,我們的需求主題確實是穩定的。一整年都是如此。儘管存在如上所述的營運挑戰,本季我們在墨西哥灣沿岸的系統每天出口約 25 萬桶石油。其中約 2/3 是餾分油。當然,餘額是汽油。拉丁美洲和加勒比地區的需求中心確實強勁且富有彈性,並且全年都在成長。他們每天向該系統進口約 230 萬桶石油。美國約佔其中的 65%。我們在拉丁美洲和加勒比地區的份額有所下降,以換取在歐洲的份額。因此,我們看到歐洲進口量有所增長,正如您可能也看到的那樣,本季度從美國到歐洲的每天大約有 20 萬桶。

  • The one cautionary tale there, it is the one weakest spot that we see throughout our network, which is distillate demand in Europe. Our team sees it is roughly 4% to 6% off year-to-year with expectations and a bit of hope that as we get into the colder weather season here later this year, we'll see a pickup in demand in Europe. But that is the one soft spot that we're seeing.

    那裡的一個警世故事是我們在整個網路中看到的一個最薄弱的環節,即歐洲的餾分油需求。我們的團隊認為,與去年同期相比,價格大約下降了 4% 至 6%,並希望隨著今年晚些時候進入寒冷的天氣季節,我們將看到歐洲的需求回升。但這是我們看到的一個弱點。

  • Douglas George Blyth Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

    Douglas George Blyth Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

  • Okay. That's helpful. And Mike, I apologize for this one, but I guess somebody has got to ask it. So there is speculation overnight about the CITGO process and Marathon been mentioned as a potential bidder. So I wonder if you could frame whether that is, in fact, a consideration that you thought about what the rationale would be and how you would see something like that fitting in with your portfolio high-grading focus that you've had over the last several years?

    好的。這很有幫助。麥克,我為此道歉,但我想必須有人問這個問題。因此,隔夜有人猜測 CITGO 流程,並且 Marathon 被提及為潛在競標者。所以我想知道你是否可以框架一下這實際上是否是你考慮的基本原理是什麼以及你如何看待類似的事情符合你過去的投資組合高評級重點幾年?

  • Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

    Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Doug. I'm going to let Dave start, and then I'll come back afterwards.

    謝謝,道格。我會讓戴夫先開始,然後我再回來。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Doug, so I appreciate the question. We anticipated that. So and Mike said in the past, we like to and do look at everything out there as a general comment. But I think we're more focused currently on -- and Rick touched on this a little bit on opportunities to build out our competencies and increase our competitive advantages along our existing refinery value chains. And when we say that, that's inclusive of MPC and MPLX, so from well head to wheel as a way to think about it. So with that said and on the current environment, we believe that M&A within refining, refining M&A is one of the more challenging ways to create value. And with all that said, I would not anticipate us or you shouldn't anticipate us participating in the current auction process for the CITGO assets.

    道格,所以我很欣賞這個問題。我們預料到了這一點。因此,麥克過去說過,我們喜歡並且確實將所有內容視為一般性評論。但我認為我們目前更關注的是——里克(Rick)談到了在現有煉油廠價值鏈上建立我們的能力並提高我們的競爭優勢的機會。當我們這麼說時,這包括 MPC 和 MPLX,因此從井口到車輪都是一種思考方式。話雖如此,在當前環境下,我們認為精煉領域的併購是創造價值更具挑戰性的方式之一。話雖如此,我不會預料到我們,或者你也不應該預料到我們會參與當前的 CITGO 資產拍賣過程。

  • Douglas George Blyth Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

    Douglas George Blyth Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

  • Mike, did you have a follow-up?

    麥克,你有後續行動嗎?

  • Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

    Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

  • I don't know where the rumor came from, but we're not interested in the auction process...

    我不知道謠言從何而來,但我們對拍賣過程不感興趣...

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

    我們的下一個問題將由豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng 提出。

  • Paul Cheng - Analyst

    Paul Cheng - Analyst

  • Maybe this is Maryann or maybe for Rich. For the West Coast marketing margin transition that seems to be very strong, and you do have a terminal network there. So just curious that in the third quarter, how much is the West Coast contribution coming from that piece of the business? Is it growing? Or that -- what's your plan over there? That's the first question.

    也許這是瑪麗安,也可能是里奇。對於西海岸的營銷利潤率轉型來說,這似乎非常強勁,而且那裡確實有一個終端網絡。所以我很好奇,在第三季度,該業務對西海岸的貢獻有多少?它在增長嗎?或者說——你那邊有什麼計畫?這是第一個問題。

  • Brian K. Partee - SVP of Global Clean Products

    Brian K. Partee - SVP of Global Clean Products

  • Yes, Paul, this is Brian. I'll take that one. Really, very limited impact in the quarter from our marketing business on the West Coast. We actually saw prices increase pretty substantially on the West Coast in the quarter due to some unplanned outages in the system. And when that occurs, we actually see just the opposite. We see a lot of pressure on the margin out in the West Coast and other markets. So not a big contributor there in the quarter. Now as we look ahead to 4Q as market comes off, we would expect to see some recovery and some margin expansion in the fourth quarter. But to your other question, we are absolutely actively engaged and growing and continuing to grow that network. We've put up really good numbers last year and this year and look at it as a strategic component of our position out in the West Coast.

    是的,保羅,這是布萊恩。我會接受那個。事實上,我們在西岸的行銷業務對本季的影響非常有限。實際上,由於系統出現一些意外中斷,本季西海岸的價格大幅上漲。當這種情況發生時,我們實際上看到的恰恰相反。我們看到西海岸和其他市場的利潤率面臨很大壓力。因此,本季的貢獻並不大。現在,隨著市場的回落,我們展望第四季度,我們預計第四季度會出現一些復甦和利潤率擴張。但對於你的另一個問題,我們絕對積極參與並發展並繼續發展該網絡。去年和今年我們取得了非常好的成績,並將其視為我們在西海岸的戰略組成部分。

  • Paul Cheng - Analyst

    Paul Cheng - Analyst

  • Brian, do you have any rough estimate you can share that how many stations that you're trying to grow it on an annual basis over the next several years there?

    布萊恩,您是否可以粗略估計您在未來幾年內每年將嘗試增加多少個電台?

  • Brian K. Partee - SVP of Global Clean Products

    Brian K. Partee - SVP of Global Clean Products

  • Really don't want to forecast a station growth expectation, Paul. We're really focused on value growth. So it's really -- it's a PV optimization, looking at volume and margin. So it's not driven by station growth or volume alone.

    真的不想預測電台的成長預期,保羅。我們確實專注於價值成長。所以這其實是一種光伏優化,著眼於銷售和利潤。因此,它不僅僅由電台增長或數量所驅動。

  • Paul Cheng - Analyst

    Paul Cheng - Analyst

  • Okay. Mike -- I know maybe it's still a little bit early. Can you talk about that the plus and minuses on the variable for the CapEx outlook for the next several years comparing to this year. Are we expecting a pretty steady program or that you are looking for opportunity to grow both in the maybe refining in terms of improving the yield or reducing energy and MPLX. So can you just give us some idea that how the trend is going to look like in the CapEx and (inaudible) level?

    好的。麥克——我知道也許現在還太早。能談談與今年相比,未來幾年資本支出前景變數的優缺點嗎?我們是否期待一個相當穩定的計劃,或者您正在尋找機會在提高產量或減少能源和 MPLX 方面實現可能的精煉成長。那麼您能否給我們一些關於資本支出和(聽不清楚)水準的趨勢的一些想法?

  • Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

    Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure, Paul. It's Maryann. Let me talk a little bit about CapEx in general, and then I'll pass it to Mike, and he'll share some incremental thoughts as well. But as you know, one of our principles, if you will, our strategic pillars is strict capital discipline. And I think that has -- hopefully, you've seen that we have implemented that principal well over the last few years. When you look at 2017 to 2020, our consolidated CapEx averaged about $3.5 billion. And as you look '21 to '23, that's averaged $2.1 billion. So again, that premise of strict capital discipline, ensuring that we're delivering the returns has been an important piece of the work that we've been doing. I think in refining, we continue to look for cost reduction type projects, those that can enhance reliability, margin enhancement type projects that we would be continuing to evaluate.

    當然,保羅。這是瑪麗安。讓我大致談談資本支出,然後我會將其傳遞給麥克,他也會分享一些增量想法。但如你所知,我們的原則之一,如果你願意的話,我們的戰略支柱是嚴格的資本紀律。我認為,希望您已經看到我們在過去幾年中很好地實施了這項原則。縱觀 2017 年至 2020 年,我們的綜合資本支出平均約為 35 億美元。從 21 歲到 23 歲,平均為 21 億美元。再說一次,嚴格的資本紀律的前提,確保我們提供回報,一直是我們一直在做的工作的重要組成部分。我認為在精煉方面,我們將繼續尋找降低成本的項目,那些可以提高可靠性、提高利潤的項目,我們將繼續評估這些項目。

  • And there are several of those projects that we'll evaluate. In terms of the timing, we're a bit early for 2024, frankly, even 2025 guidance. But let me pass it to Mike because I think he wants to give you some incremental color on how he's thinking about it.

    我們將評估其中幾個項目。就時間安排而言,坦白說,我們對 2024 年的預測有點早,甚至對 2025 年的預測也有點早。但讓我把它轉給麥克,因為我認為他想給你一些關於他如何思考這個問題的增量資訊。

  • Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

    Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

  • I think, Maryann, you answered it very well. Paul, the way we think about it is on the MPLX side of the house, we've been spending roughly about $1 billion and growing those cash flows. If you listen to the MPLX call, we're still very comfortable with those cash flows growing that will continue to kick over to MPC via distribution. And then Maryann said it well. On the refining side of the house, we're still very optimistic that we have some good projects that enable us to either increase reliability, which will hit the bottom line or enhance our margins in such a way that we talked about earlier that will generate more EBITDA per barrel.

    我認為,瑪麗安,你回答得很好。 Paul,我們的想法是在 MPLX 方面,我們已經花費了大約 10 億美元並增加了這些現金流。如果你聽過 MPLX 的電話會議,我們仍然對這些現金流的成長感到非常滿意,這些現金流將繼續透過分配轉移到 MPC。然後瑪麗安說得很好。在煉油方面,我們仍然非常樂觀,我們有一些好的項目,使我們能夠提高可靠性,這將達到底線,或者以我們之前討論過的方式提高我們的利潤率,這將產生每桶EBITDA 更高。

  • So we have a pretty fulsome look at where we think we're going to invest and like Mary just gave you the numbers over the last couple of years, you're spending $2 billion to $3 billion overall on a consolidated basis. We think that's a nice base case to have. And then we always look to optimize around that. When we do that, we generate sufficient free cash flow that we can still return capital via dividends and buybacks. And as you've seen in this enhanced margin environment, that's part of DNA to return capital to shareholders.

    因此,我們對我們將要投資的領域進行了非常全面的了解,就像瑪麗剛剛向您提供的過去幾年的數字一樣,您在綜合基礎上總共花費了 20 億至 30 億美元。我們認為這是一個很好的基礎案例。然後我們總是尋求圍繞這一點進行優化。當我們這樣做時,我們會產生足夠的自由現金流,我們仍然可以透過股利和回購來返還資本。正如您在這種利潤率提高的環境中所看到的,這是向股東返還資本的 DNA 的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Sam Margolin。

  • Sam Jeffrey Margolin - MD of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Sam Jeffrey Margolin - MD of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • Questions on the buyback, and it's kind of conceptual just sort of how you think about the stock when you do your internal process. But when you are looking at an MPC share, the question is really how do you view it? Or what does it represent to you? Is it representative of just the parent company and a repository for MPLX distributions? Or do you kind of analyze it as a consolidated entity where something like 40% of it is like a synthetic MPLX share. And the reason I asked is because -- we do get a lot of questions about sort of your price sensitivity in the buyback. And I think the methodology maybe is important.

    關於回購的問題,這是一個概念性的問題,就像你在進行內部流程時如何看待股票一樣。但當您查看 MPC 份額時,問題實際上是您如何看待它?或者它對你來說代表著什麼?它僅代表母公司和 MPLX 發行版儲存庫嗎?或者您是否將其作為一個合併實體進行分析,其中 40% 左右就像合成 MPLX 份額。我問這個問題的原因是——我們確實收到了很多關於回購中價格敏感性的問題。我認為方法論也許很重要。

  • Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

    Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sam, it's Maryann. Let me give you a few thoughts on that, and I can pass it to Mike in case he's got some added value. I mean there are several things that we look at as we are making decisions about the level of share buyback. And certainly, when we're looking at intrinsic value, there's a couple of approaches. So we'll look at some of the parts. We'll look at discounted cash flows, we use a series of reviews, obviously, looking at our EBITDA multiples of their respective businesses. But typically, when we are making the decision about an MPC buyback, that intrinsic value assumes the discounted cash flows, as I just shared. There are several constraints as we look at that, that we evaluate each time we go to buy back stock, none the least of which obviously is market, cash flows, where we think the quarter is going to be where we think our cash balances are. And we've worked pretty diligently to try to outperform the market here. Hopefully, you've seen that over the significance of the buyback that we've done. But we do look at it in a holistic approach.

    山姆,這是瑪麗安。讓我給你一些對此的想法,我可以將其傳遞給麥克,以防他有一些附加價值。我的意思是,在做出有關股票回購水準的決定時,我們會考慮幾個因素。當然,當我們考慮內在價值時,有幾種方法。所以我們將看看其中的一些部分。我們將查看貼現現金流,我們使用一系列評論,顯然,我們會查看各自業務的 EBITDA 倍數。但通常情況下,當我們做出有關 MPC 回購的決定時,正如我剛才分享的那樣,內在價值會假設貼現現金流。當我們看到這個問題時,我們每次回購股票時都會評估這些限制,其中最重要的是市場、現金流,我們認為本季的現金餘額將達到我們認為的水平。我們非常努力地工作,試圖超越市場。希望您已經了解我們所做的回購的重要性。但我們確實以整體的方式來看待它。

  • Let me pass that back to Mike and see if he wants to add any color.

    讓我將其傳回給麥克,看看他是否想添加任何顏色。

  • Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

    Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Sam, here's the way I think about it. As you know, we don't control the margins. So as the quarter progresses, we don't have a specified amount that says we're going to do x in this quarter, other than we've been trying to be as aggressive as we possibly can within the constraints that the SEC puts on us, such as daily volume traded limitations or blackout periods, et cetera, et cetera. So we've been -- because it kind of looks like it's been consistent just because we've been trying to be as aggressive as possible, once we generate the cash, as we talk to Paul's question, we have our dedication that we want to invest capital in. And then we want to be returning capital to shareholders as quickly as we can.

    是的,山姆,這就是我的想法。如您所知,我們無法控制利潤。因此,隨著本季度的進展,我們沒有具體的金額表明我們將在本季度做某事,除了我們一直在努力在 SEC 施加的限制範圍內盡可能積極地採取行動我們,例如每日交易量限製或封鎖期等等。所以我們一直 - 因為它看起來一直是一致的,只是因為我們一直在努力盡可能地積極進取,一旦我們產生現金,當我們談論保羅的問題時,我們就會有我們想要的奉獻精神然後我們希望盡快將資本返還給股東。

  • At the same time, I will tell you that we also still try to beat the market. One of our goals is to be as aggressive as we can on return capital, but take advantage of the volatility that's within the quarter. And since we started this program, we've ended up reducing the share count by about 40%. It's a rough number. And during that process, we've kind of beat the market by about $4. So if you say, hey, we've reduced somewhere around 270 million shares at around $4, it's roughly about $1 billion of value creation just in our execution. But it starts with, obviously, generate cash, figure out how much we can return to shareholders as quickly as we can within those constraints and then try our best to beat the market during that execution. I hope that helps.

    同時我也會告訴大家,我們仍然在努力跑贏大盤。我們的目標之一是盡可能積極地回報資本,但要利用本季的波動性。自從我們開始這個計劃以來,我們最終減少了大約 40% 的份額數量。這是一個粗略的數字。在此過程中,我們比市場高出約 4 美元。因此,如果你說,嘿,我們已經以 4 美元左右的價格減持了約 2.7 億股,那麼我們的執行就創造了約 10 億美元的價值。但顯然,首先是產生現金,計算出在這些限制內我們可以盡快向股東回報多少,然後在執行過程中盡力擊敗市場。我希望這有幫助。

  • Sam Jeffrey Margolin - MD of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Sam Jeffrey Margolin - MD of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • Yes, very much so. And my follow-up is just more of a straightforward ops question, but it's about the West Coast. And TMX has been delayed. But once it starts up, it might be impactful to fundamentals on the West Coast. And it seems noteworthy because of your comments about how the Midwest is this integrated system with shipper status for WCS and you're able to move things around. And so I wonder in the context of TMX, if there's -- if you see any analogs there with building out sort of a full value chain or commercial integrated platform.

    是的,非常如此。我的後續行動只是一個更簡單的操作問題,但它是關於西海岸的。 TMX 也被推遲了。但一旦啟動,可能會對西海岸的基本面產生影響。這似乎值得注意,因為您對中西部如何成為具有 WCS 托運人狀態的整合系統的評論,並且您能夠移動東西。所以我想知道在 TMX 的背景下,是否有 - 如果你看到任何類似的東西來建立完整的價值鏈或商業整合平台。

  • Rick D. Hessling - SVP of Global Feedstocks

    Rick D. Hessling - SVP of Global Feedstocks

  • Sam, it's Rick. Your analogy is spot on. So when TMX comes online, we'll not only see benefits in the Pacific Northwest, specifically at Anacortes and at L.A. So the way we look at it is you're going to get access to an advantaged barrel more so than what you do today. And we believe that barrel will compete very well, especially on the West Coast. We believe TMX will have some start-up issues. They have some well-publicized marine hurdles they need to get over. And with that being said, having that barrel clear all the way to Asia will be difficult. And sitting on the West Coast, we have a structural advantage from a transportation cost perspective. So we do see that playing into both of our assets, one in the Pacific Northwest and L.A. on the West Coast.

    山姆,我是瑞克。你的比喻很到位。因此,當 TMX 上線時,我們不僅會看到太平洋西北地區的好處,特別是在阿納科特斯和洛杉磯。因此,我們看待它的方式是,您將獲得比今天更多的優勢桶。我們相信桶裝將具有良好的競爭力,尤其是在西海岸。我們認為 TMX 將會遇到一些啟動問題。他們需要克服一些廣為人知的海洋障礙。話雖如此,讓這桶油一路暢通無阻地運往亞洲將是困難的。而且我們位於西海岸,從運輸成本的角度來看具有結構性優勢。因此,我們確實看到這對我們的兩個資產都產生了影響,一個是太平洋西北地區的資產,另一個是洛杉磯西海岸的資產。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, you will hear from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

    接下來,您將聽到富國銀行羅傑·里德的演講。

  • Roger David Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Roger David Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. Can you hear me all right?

    好的。你聽得到我說話嗎?

  • Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

    Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

  • We got you, Roger.

    我們找到你了,羅傑。

  • Roger David Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Roger David Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • All right. I'd like to come back around on the renewable diesel. We heard from others and seen some stories about permit issues. Just curious you can kind of walk us through the way we should be thinking about that as we head into start-up kind of year-end and in early part of '24.

    好的。我想重新使用再生柴油。我們從其他人那裡聽到並看到了一些有關許可證問題的故事。只是好奇你能帶我們了解一下當我們進入年底和 24 年初的新創公司時我們應該思考這個問題的方式。

  • James R. Wilkins - SVP of Health, Environment, Safety & Security

    James R. Wilkins - SVP of Health, Environment, Safety & Security

  • Roger, this is Jim Wilkins. We're working with the county on one issue related to our land use permit. That issue, we expect will get resolved in the upcoming months, and it's related to our odor mitigation plan. The resolution of that matter won't impact our ability to construct or operate the facility.

    羅傑,這是吉姆威爾金斯。我們正在與該縣合作解決與我們的土地使用許可證有關的一個問題。我們預計這個問題將在未來幾個月內得到解決,這與我們的氣味緩解計劃有關。該問題的解決不會影響我們建造或營運該設施的能力。

  • Roger David Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Roger David Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Does it change at all the feedstock that you'd be able to use early on.

    它會改變您早期能夠使用的所有原料嗎?

  • James R. Wilkins - SVP of Health, Environment, Safety & Security

    James R. Wilkins - SVP of Health, Environment, Safety & Security

  • No.

    不。

  • Roger David Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Roger David Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I'm not terribly experienced with this, but I know that some of the feedstocks are -- well, let's just say they're not what you would want to smell, I guess.

    我對此沒有太多經驗,但我知道有些原料——好吧,我猜它們不是你想聞的味道。

  • James R. Wilkins - SVP of Health, Environment, Safety & Security

    James R. Wilkins - SVP of Health, Environment, Safety & Security

  • No, Roger. So we actually have an approved odor mitigation plan with the Air Quality division. And actually, what we're doing is circling back to the land use permit where we said we'd develop an odor mitigation plan and embedding the plan that's already been approved.

    不,羅傑。因此,我們實際上已經與空氣品質部門批准了一項氣味緩解計劃。事實上,我們正​​在做的是回到土地使用許可證,我們說我們將製定一項氣味緩解計劃並嵌入已經批准的計劃。

  • Roger David Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Roger David Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. So -- and just to be absolutely clear, no other regulatory hurdles that need to be cleared for startup.

    好的。完美的。因此,需要明確的是,啟動不需要清除其他監管障礙。

  • James R. Wilkins - SVP of Health, Environment, Safety & Security

    James R. Wilkins - SVP of Health, Environment, Safety & Security

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Royall with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾。

  • John Macalister Royall - Analyst

    John Macalister Royall - Analyst

  • So I had -- my first one is a follow-up on the buyback. You've now gotten through another quarter with a really solid crack environment in 3Q and another quarter where you aren't drawing any cash. And in fact, you build cash by about, I think, $1.5 billion which I wouldn't characterize as a problem by any stretch, but you've talked about getting that cash balance down closer to $1 billion longer term. And Mike talked about the constraints to doing more on the buyback. And now we're seeing a worsening environment in 4Q. So my question is, given all your excess cash, should we think about the buyback is not particularly sensitive to the crack environment? And would you expect to start drawing cash from here?

    所以我——我的第一個是回購的後續行動。現在,您已經度過了第三季度的一個真正穩定的破解環境的季度,以及您沒有提取任何現金的另一個季度。事實上,我認為你累積了大約 15 億美元的現金,無論如何我都不會認為這是一個問題,但你已經談到從長遠來看將現金餘額減少到接近 10 億美元。麥克談到了在回購方面採取更多行動的限制。現在我們看到第四季的環境正在惡化。所以我的問題是,考慮到你所有的多餘現金,我們是否應該考慮回購對破解環境不是特別敏感?您希望從這裡開始提領現金嗎?

  • Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

    Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

  • John, it's Maryann. So a couple of things. Yes, you're absolutely right. As you see, we said a little over $13 billion at the end of the quarter. And again, just keeping in mind, about $1 billion of that belongs to MPLX. And then obviously, there is some working capital sensitivity as we have timing of our liability payments. We would expect to see a bit of that unwind as normal. We'll see some of that happen in the fourth quarter and then again in the first quarter. Having said that, your point is accurate. We've said we're quite comfortable with $1 billion on our balance sheet. The nice part about having the cash on the balance sheet today versus if we were sitting here a year ago is we're generating close to $0.5 billion in interest income as we're holding on to that cash.

    約翰,這是瑪麗安。有幾件事。是的,你說得完全正確。正如您所看到的,我們說本季末的收入略高於 130 億美元。再次強調一下,其中約 10 億美元屬於 MPLX。顯然,由於我們有負債支付的時間,因此存在一些營運資金敏感度。我們預計會像往常一樣看到一些放鬆。我們將在第四季度看到其中一些情況發生,然後在第一季再次發生。話雖如此,你的觀點是正確的。我們說過,我們對資產負債表上的 10 億美元感到滿意。與一年前相比,今天資產負債表上有現金的好處是,我們持有這些現金,從而產生了近 5 億美元的利息收入。

  • Certainly, when we are looking at the amount of share buyback that we want to do in any particular period of time, and I think Mike articulated it as well, we're looking at several factors. The fact that we've got cash on the balance sheet to allow us to take advantage of volatility, I think, is a plus. We remain committed to share repurchase and the return of capital. We've got some priorities, obviously, safe and reliable operation of our assets gets it first. We're committed to our dividend, as we just shared with you. And we're looking for opportunities to put that capital to work in order to be able to grow the business and particularly earn the types of returns that you all expect. And we continue to see share buyback as an efficient return of capital. So again, we'll look at all factors as we head into any particular quarter and try to be as opportunistic as we can and be sure that we are doing our best to beat the market and taking advantage of the volatility where we can.

    當然,當我們考慮在任何特定時期內我們想要進行的股票回購數量時,我認為麥克也明確表達了這一點,我們正在考慮幾個因素。我認為,我們的資產負債表上有現金,可以讓我們利用波動性,這是一個優點。我們仍然致力於股票回購和資本返還。我們有一些優先事項,顯然,我們資產的安全可靠運作是第一位的。正如我們剛剛與您分享的那樣,我們致力於派發股息。我們正在尋找機會將這些資本投入使用,以便能夠發展業務,特別是賺取大家期望的回報。我們仍然認為股票回購是一種有效的資本報酬。因此,再次強調,當我們進入任何特定季度時,我們都會考慮所有因素,並盡可能地抓住機會,並確保我們正在盡最大努力擊敗市場,並盡可能利用波動性。

  • John Macalister Royall - Analyst

    John Macalister Royall - Analyst

  • Great. And then Maryann called out some turnaround work pulled in from next year to the second half of this year. And so just thinking about next year, any early look on what 2024 could look like from a turnaround perspective. I think you had some catch-up over the past 2 years, and now this work pulled into '23. So is it reasonable to think it might be kind of a below average year?

    偉大的。然後瑪麗安宣布從明年到今年下半年將進行一些扭虧為盈的工作。因此,只要想想明年,從轉虧為盈的角度來看,2024 年會是什麼樣子。我想你在過去的兩年裡有所趕上,現在這項工作已經進入了 23 年。那麼認為今年可能低於平均是否合理?

  • Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

    Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

  • John, Maryann again. So in general, notwithstanding the impact of COVID, if you look over an average period of time, our turnaround is pretty similar we're operating 13 refineries, fossil fuel and 2 renewable diesel. And at every point in time, there is some level of turnaround. You're absolutely right. One of the things that we did, notwithstanding the unplanned downtime on the reformer is pull forward some turnaround that we expected to do in our 2024 plans into 2023. But again, absent the period of COVID, you can see the level of turnaround being pretty similar watching those.

    約翰,又是瑪麗安。因此,總的來說,儘管有新冠疫情的影響,但如果你觀察平均一段時間,我們的周轉情況非常相似,我們經營 13 家煉油廠,使用化石燃料和 2 家再生柴油。在每個時間點,都會出現一定程度的轉變。你是絕對正確的。儘管改革者出現了計劃外停機,但我們所做的一件事是將我們預計在2024 年計劃中實現的一些週轉時間提前到2023 年。但同樣,如果沒有新冠疫情期間,您可以看到週轉水平相當不錯類似的看那些。

  • In the fourth quarter also, you may have noticed in our guidance, West Coast utilization we do have turnaround activity there. We've got 2 locations in LAR. We are trying to get those turnarounds done ahead of the driving season next year, just as an example, if you're looking at activity in the fourth quarter as well. I'll pause there.

    同樣在第四季度,您可能已經在我們的指導中註意到,西海岸的利用情況我們確實在那裡進行了周轉活動。我們在 LAR 有 2 個地點。舉個例子,如果您也在關注第四季的活動,我們正努力在明年的駕駛季節之前完成這些週轉。我會在那裡暫停。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Gabelman 和 TD Cowen。

  • Jason Daniel Gabelman - Director & Analyst

    Jason Daniel Gabelman - Director & Analyst

  • A decent amount of focus on the buyback. I wanted to ask about the dividend raise of 10%. Last year, the dividend raise was higher in line with the amount you had repurchased over the trailing 12 months this year, that wasn't the case -- and it's also, I guess, lower than the incremental cash you'll be receiving from MPLX with their higher distribution. So the question is, how do you think about kind of that dividend raise? How did you come up with that 10%? And then how do you think about it moving forward, especially in light of the commentary that you expect the refining environment, the mid-cycle environment to be higher, and I would expect the dividend moving higher would be a good way to message that earnings power to the market.

    相當多的注意力集中在回購上。我想問一下股利增加10%的事。去年,股息上漲幅度與您今年過去 12 個月回購的金額一致,但事實並非如此 - 而且我猜,它也低於您將從中獲得的增量現金MPLX 具有較高的分佈。所以問題是,您如何看待股利增加?這10%是怎麼得來的?然後,您如何看待未來的發展,特別是考慮到您預計煉油環境、中期環境會更高的評論,我預計股息上漲將是傳達盈利信息的好方法給市場的力量。

  • Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

    Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

  • Jason, it's Mike. I'll start, and I'll let Mary jump in. Yes, I think what you're referring to is we had a bigger increase before because the way we looked at it is most in our industry kind of paused around COVID during that tough year of cash. So we made a bigger jump. And now what we're showing this year is we're trying to show the market that we believe in a growing dividend that is part of our capital allocation we want it to be competitive. But at the same time, I often say that it's more tax efficient to go return capital through share repurchases. And the sheer quantum of dollars in each case is pretty different. So overall, we want the market to know, yes, we're going to grow the dividend. We're going to consistently do that. We want it to be competitive. We want to show that we're going to grow earnings, that comes back to investing capital and all the self-help that we can do. But at the same time, we're going to earn more on the side of share repurchases because we think it's more tax efficient and a better way to return capital.

    傑森,是麥克。我會開始,我會讓瑪麗插話。是的,我想你指的是我們之前有過更大的增長,因為我們行業中大多數人的看待方式是在那段時間圍繞新冠疫情暫停了。現金困難的一年。所以我們邁出了更大的一步。現在我們今年要展示的是,我們試圖向市場表明,我們相信股息不斷增長,這是我們資本配置的一部分,我們希望它具有競爭力。但同時,我常說,透過股票回購返還資本更節稅。而且每種情況下的美元金額都大不相同。總的來說,我們希望市場知道,是的,我們將增加股息。我們將始終如一地這樣做。我們希望它具有競爭力。我們想表明,我們將增加收入,這又回到了投資資本和我們能做的所有自助。但同時,我們將透過股票回購賺取更多收入,因為我們認為這更具稅收效率,也是資本回饋的更好方式。

  • Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

    Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Jason, it's Maryann. The only thing that I would add to Mike's comments are the dividend is only one part, as you said, of the capital allocation strategy. But having said that, we think this increase is peer leading at 12% CAGR over the last 5 years. So we hope you see it that as well.

    傑森,這是瑪麗安。我對麥克的評論唯一要補充的是,正如您所說,股息只是資本配置策略的一部分。但話雖如此,我們認為這一增長在過去 5 年中以 12% 的複合年增長率領先於同行。所以我們希望您也能看到這一點。

  • Jason Daniel Gabelman - Director & Analyst

    Jason Daniel Gabelman - Director & Analyst

  • Got it. And then my follow-up is on one of the growth projects that I think you have for next year, the hydrogen hub project that was selected for funding from the DOE. I was hoping just to get more color on exactly what Marathon's participation is in that project, how it could benefit the company? Any thoughts around capital spending that you would have to contribute there?

    知道了。然後我的後續行動是我認為明年的成長計畫之一,即被選擇由美國能源部資助的氫中心計畫。我只是希望能更多地了解 Marathon 參與該專案的具體內容,它會為公司帶來什麼好處?關於您必須在那裡做出貢獻的資本支出有什麼想法嗎?

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Yes, Jason, this is Dave. I'll touch on that. So start with high level. Number one, there are 7 hubs that were approved for funding from the DOE for $7 billion. We mean MPC/MPLX we're involved in 2 of them. So 1 in Appalachia and 1 in the Heartland area. So when we think about the involvement of MPC and MPLX, they're a little bit different. On the MPLX side, it's more around storage of hydrogen and transportation of CO2 on pipelines. From an MPC perspective, it is inclusive of lowering the carbon intensity of via hydrogen production. And when you think about it in the Heartland area do the location of it very -- the proximity very close to our Dickinson renewable diesel facility. So of course, anytime you can lower the CI of the base product you're making from renewable diesel, you can get that pull-through value of that asset that we already invested in. So the best way to think about it, like we do everything, these are bolt-on type investments that can create value up and down the value chains.

    是的,傑森,這是戴夫。我會談到這一點。所以從高水準開始。第一,有 7 個中心獲得美國能源部 70 億美元的資助。我們指的是 MPC/MPLX,我們參與了其中的兩個。因此,阿巴拉契亞地區有 1 個,中心地區有 1 個。因此,當我們考慮 MPC 和 MPLX 的參與時,它們有點不同。在 MPLX 方面,更多的是圍繞氫氣儲存和管道運輸二氧化碳。從MPC的角度來看,它包括透過氫氣生產來降低碳強度。當您想到中心地區時,您會發現它的位置非常靠近我們的迪金森再生柴油設施。因此,當然,只要您可以降低由可再生柴油生產的基礎產品的 CI,您就可以獲得我們已經投資的資產的拉動價值。因此,最好的思考方式是,就像我們一樣盡一切努力,這些都是補強型投資,可以在價值鏈上下創造價值。

  • Jason Daniel Gabelman - Director & Analyst

    Jason Daniel Gabelman - Director & Analyst

  • Okay. When should we see those benefits start to accrue when do the projects come online?

    好的。當專案上線時,我們什麼時候應該看到這些好處開始產生?

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Yes. So that's great. So we are -- while this DOE funding was a major milestone for all of us that got granted, some funding from this, it's in the very early stages. So to think about it, next phase of this is a negotiation with the DOE on the funding and the contractual commitments around that funding requirement, then you've got to design and build the facility. So from a capital spend and associated benefit to the company, I think you're looking into late 2024, 2025 timeframe. So it's still a ways out there.

    是的。那太好了。所以我們 - 雖然能源部的這筆資金對我們所有人來說都是一個重要的里程碑,但其中的一些資金仍處於非常早期的階段。所以想一想,下一階段是與能源部就資金和圍繞資金要求的合約承諾進行談判,然後你必須設計和建造該設施。因此,從資本支出和公司的相關利益來看,我認為您正在考慮 2024 年末、2025 年的時間表。所以還是有出路的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Theresa Chen with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的Theresa Chen。

  • Theresa Chen - Research Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up on Sam's question related to TMX for which MPC has a known commitment. And I was just wondering if you could update us with where you think the toll may settle out at given the discussion with the pipeline owner and the bid ask currently? And related to that, how much do you think really it can tighten WCS differentials for your Mid-Con assets given that Coast holds are comparable to going to the U.S. Gulf Coast versus Burnaby?

    我想跟進 Sam 提出的與 TMX 相關的問題,MPC 對此有已知的承諾。我只是想知道,考慮到與管道所有者的討論和目前的投標要求,您是否可以向我們提供最新信息,告訴我們您認為通行費可能會在哪裡解決?與此相關的是,考慮到海岸持有的資產與前往美國墨西哥灣沿岸與本那比的資產相當,您認為它實際上可以在多大程度上縮小您中型資產的 WCS 差異?

  • Rick D. Hessling - SVP of Global Feedstocks

    Rick D. Hessling - SVP of Global Feedstocks

  • Yes. Theresa, it's Rick. So on the first part of your question, I'm just really not in a position to comment on the toll or speculate what it may end up at. On the second part of your question, the guidance I'd give you is as we look at the forward curve on WCS, so today, WCS sits at about a $26 discount. In Q1, it's plus or minus $25. And in Q2, if TMX comes online there, and I think the market is still questionable on that. The forward curves $15 to $18 discount. So still a pretty significant discount, and we'll just have to see where it goes from there.

    是的。特蕾莎,是瑞克。因此,關於你問題的第一部分,我真的無法對通行費發表評論或推測其最終結果。關於你問題的第二部分,我給你的指導是我們觀察 WCS 的遠期曲線,所以今天,WCS 的折扣約為 26 美元。第一季度,正負 25 美元。在第二季度,TMX 是否上線,我認為市場對此仍然存在疑問。遠期曲線折扣 15 美元至 18 美元。所以仍然是一個相當大的折扣,我們只需要看看它的方向。

  • Theresa Chen - Research Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Research Analyst

  • Got it. And going back to Mike's earlier comments about additional investment opportunities, RNG being one 1 of them. Can you just give us an update on progress related to the LF Bioenergy assets after the Q1 acquisition announcement, how that's trending? And do you expect to use this as a launch pad for additional RNG investments? Or is this going to be more of a roll up strategy from here?

    知道了。回到 Mike 之前關於額外投資機會的評論,RNG 就是其中之一。您能否向我們介紹第一季度收購公告後 LF Bioenergy 資產相關進展的最新情況,趨勢如何?您是否希望將此作為 RNG 額外投資的啟動平台?或者這將更像是一個匯總策略?

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Yes, Theresa, this is Dave again. I'll touch on that. So yes, the LF Bioenergy investment, that joint venture is progressing as we planned. We are building out the facilities. The plan is to build out 13 of those RNG facilities collecting a very low CI dairy RNG and then monetizing that, again, as I touched on a little bit with the hydrogen hub taking that RNG into our renewable diesel facilities such as Dickinson and Martinez, will lower the CI of that base renewable diesel product coming out. So relative to the relationship and the investment, we're very happy with the investment, the management team there, the projects we've -- that they're identifying, they've got a good runway of portfolio projects and they're coming online as planned.

    是的,特蕾莎,這又是戴夫。我會談到這一點。所以,是的,LF Bioenergy 投資,該合資企業正在按我們的計劃進行。我們正在擴建設施。該計劃是建造 13 個 RNG 設施,收集 CI 非常低的乳品 RNG,然後將其貨幣化,正如我談到的氫氣中心,將 RNG 引入我們的可再生柴油設施,如 Dickinson 和 Martinez,將降低即將推出的基礎再生柴油產品的CI。因此,相對於關係和投資,我們對投資、那裡的管理團隊、我們正在確定的項目非常滿意,他們有一個良好的投資組合項目跑道,而且他們按計劃上線。

  • So -- and the second part of your question, is this a one-off or a foundation for subsequent investments in renewable diesel space or the renewable natural gas space. So we continue, as I said earlier, we look at a lot of stuff. There are some opportunities out there. But we -- the key to this one was we got in early. And didn't overpay for a built-out system. So when we think of subsequent investments, I think of them that way. If there's one that we can step in early and participate in the build-out of the infrastructure and integrate it with our business rather than paying for a built-out system, we'll continue to evaluate those opportunities.

    那麼,你問題的第二部分是,這是一次性的還是為再生柴油領域或再生天然氣領域的後續投資奠定基礎。所以我們繼續,正如我之前所說,我們研究了很多東西。那裡有一些機會。但我們——這件事的關鍵是我們很早就介入了。並且沒有為內建系統支付過多的費用。因此,當我們考慮後續投資時,我是這樣考慮的。如果有一個我們可以儘早介入並參與基礎設施的建設並將其與我們的業務整合而不是支付建設系統費用的機會,我們將繼續評估這些機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Matthew Blair with TPH.

    我們的下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matthew Blair。

  • Matthew Robert Lovseth Blair - MD of Refiners, Chemicals & Renewable Fuels Research

    Matthew Robert Lovseth Blair - MD of Refiners, Chemicals & Renewable Fuels Research

  • Maybe sticking with the renewables. For some operators, the next leg of the RD story is moving into SAF, is that an option for Martinez? And if so, any thoughts on timing or cost to add that flexibility?

    也許會堅持使用再生能源。對於一些運營商來說,RD 故事的下一站是進入 SAF,這是 Martinez 的一個選擇嗎?如果是這樣,對於增加彈性的時間或成本有什麼想法嗎?

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Yes, Matthew, this is Dave again. So yes, there is no question both from a Dickinson and Martinez, both those have the opportunity to convert to SAF. And (inaudible) SAF is one of the most cost competitive on a CapEx per barrel basis for SAF production. With that said, the challenge in SAF is the premium associated to justify the investment. And while the IRA has been communicated, there's a lot of unknowns out there and a lot of clarity that still needs to be determined relative to the IRA, not only from the sliding scale and the CI benefit of it, but also the long-term duration. Right now, it ends in 2027, as far as the documented incentives relative to that. So it's hard to make multi-hundred million dollar investments without that clarity going forward. So lack of clarity and lack of premium from airline industry makes it very difficult to justify those investments at this time.

    是的,馬修,這又是戴夫。所以,是的,迪金森和馬丁內斯毫無疑問,他們都有機會轉為新加坡武裝部隊。而且(聽不清楚)SAF 是 SAF 生產中每桶資本支出最具成本競爭力的國家之一。儘管如此,SAF 面臨的挑戰是證明投資合理性的相關溢價。雖然 IRA 已經被傳達,但相對於 IRA 來說,還有很多未知因素和很多清晰度需要確定,不僅是從滑動比例和 CI 收益來看,而且是從長期來看。期間。目前,就相關的記錄激勵措施而言,該計劃將於 2027 年結束。因此,如果沒有這種明確性,就很難進行數億美元的投資。因此,航空業缺乏透明度和溢價,使得目前很難證明這些投資的合理性。

  • Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

    Michael J. Hennigan - President, CEO & Director

  • Matthew, it's Mike. I'll just add to your and to Theresa's question. I think what you're trying -- or hopefully, what you're seeing from us is we're tentative to this whole low-carbon world, whether it's investment in RNG, like Theresa talked about or as Dave just mentioned, SAF, in my opinion, is going to happen at some period as Dave said, there's a little bit of wrangling around the economics of it at this point. But when those opportunities present themselves to us, we'll continue to optimize our portfolio. So I think if you take a stair step over time, you're going to see us continue to be conscious of that, at the same time, recognizing that the base business is still the majority of what we do.

    馬修,是麥克。我只是補充你和特蕾莎的問題。我認為你正在嘗試——或者希望你從我們身上看到的是我們對整個低碳世界的嘗試,無論是對 RNG 的投資,就像 Theresa 談到的,還是 Dave 剛才提到的,SAF,在我看來,正如戴夫所說,這將在某個時期發生,目前圍繞著它的經濟學存在一些爭論。但當這些機會出現在我們面前時,我們將繼續優化我們的投資組合。因此,我認為,如果你隨著時間的推移邁出一步,你會看到我們繼續意識到這一點,同時認識到基礎業務仍然是我們所做的大部分工作。

  • But over time, we're going to continue to look, whether it's RNG, whether it's SAF, whether it's continued build-out in some other areas, those are things that we continue to evaluate. Dave and his team is constantly looking at it, and we'll make some investment there. But we're not looking for the big splash of a major investment, as Dave just said, we're not looking to buy something that's already been proven out. We're looking to get ourselves in and grow with those opportunities.

    但隨著時間的推移,我們將繼續關注,無論是 RNG,無論是 SAF,還是在其他一些領域繼續建設,這些都是我們繼續評估的事情。戴夫和他的團隊一直在關注這個問題,我們將在那裡進行一些投資。但我們並不尋求大筆投資,正如戴夫剛才所說,我們不打算購買已經被證明有效的東西。我們希望能夠利用這些機會並不斷成長。

  • Matthew Robert Lovseth Blair - MD of Refiners, Chemicals & Renewable Fuels Research

    Matthew Robert Lovseth Blair - MD of Refiners, Chemicals & Renewable Fuels Research

  • Sounds good. And then do you have any early thoughts on refining margin capture into the fourth quarter? Do you think it would be up on tailwinds from things like butane blending and getting the reformer back for at least part of the quarter.

    聽起來不錯。那麼您對第四季提高利潤率有什麼初步想法嗎?您認為至少在本季的部分時間裡,它會受到丁烷混合和重整器恢復等因素的推動嗎?

  • Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

    Maryann T. Mannen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Matthew, it's Maryann. Yes, I think it's hard for us to project capture. But when you talk about the things you did, obviously, as we shared, the reformer we expect will begin to come back up mid-November, our guidance reflects the fact that it will be operational at planned rates mid-December. We talked about some secondary headwinds. We talked about marketing margins changing. You heard Brian talk about that as well. Those things clearly have a positive influence on capture. But as you know, it's difficult to predict where capture what otherwise go. But certainly, those things point to improving capture from the third quarter.

    馬修,這是瑪麗安。是的,我認為我們很難進行專案捕捉。但當你談論你所做的事情時,顯然,正如我們所分享的,我們預計改革者將在 11 月中旬開始恢復,我們的指導反映了它將在 12 月中旬按計劃運行的事實。我們討論了一些次要的阻力。我們討論了行銷利潤的變化。你也聽到布萊恩談論過這一點。這些事情顯然對捕獲有正面的影響。但如您所知,很難預測捕獲的內容會去往何處。但可以肯定的是,這些事情顯示第三季的捕獲量有所改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question will come from Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

    我們的最後一個問題將由瑞安·托德和派珀·桑德勒提出。

  • Ryan M. Todd - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Ryan M. Todd - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. Maybe if I could I have one follow-up on the Martinez conversion project. Can you talk about where you are from an operational point of view there? Maybe how much throughput you had in during the third quarter from Phase 1 of the project? And maybe as we think about startup of Phase 2 of that project by the end of this year, is there any ramp that we should associate with it, either in terms of total throughput or in terms of the type of fees that you anticipate working their way into the system. So how should we think about the progress from an operational point of view from -- for that asset?

    偉大的。如果可以的話,也許我可以跟進馬丁內斯改造計畫。您能從營運角度談談您的狀況嗎?也許您在專案第一階段的第三季有多少吞吐量?也許當我們考慮在今年年底啟動該專案的第二階段時,是否有任何我們應該與之相關的斜坡,無論是在總吞吐量方面還是在您預期工作的費用類型方面方式進入系統。那麼,我們該如何從營運角度考慮該資產的進展?

  • Timothy J. Aydt - EVP of Refining

    Timothy J. Aydt - EVP of Refining

  • Okay. Ryan, this is Tim Aydt. Thanks a lot for the question there. I would say that, first off, the project is going exceptionally well, both from a safety and on-time and on-budget standpoint. The team's really done a great job, and I do want to give them a shout out because it really kind of demonstrated one of Marathon's key strengths here and that's that they can execute on a complex project. We did, as you likely know, we start up the pretreatment unit in late second quarter, and it is operating very well. We're able to pretreat the entire production that comes about with the Phase 1 Martinez capacity. And now we're going to be looking to ramp that pretreatment capacity with the production of RD that's coming on toward the end of the year when we finish the project. And as Maryann said earlier, when we do finish the project, we're going to be able to produce 730 million gallons annually, and that should happen by the end of the year. So all in all, operationally and project wise, we're moving forward, wrapping it up, and we'll be ready at the end of the year.

    好的。瑞安,這是提姆艾特。非常感謝您的提問。我想說,首先,從安全、按時和預算的角度來看,該專案進展得非常順利。團隊確實做得非常出色,我確實想對他們大喊一聲,因為這確實展示了 Marathon 的關鍵優勢之一,那就是他們可以執行複雜的專案。正如您可能知道的那樣,我們在第二季末啟動了預處理裝置,並且運作良好。我們能夠對第一階段馬丁內斯產能產生的整個產品進行預處理。現在,我們將尋求透過 RD 的生產來提高預處理能力,RD 的生產將在今年年底完成該專案時進行。正如瑪麗安早些時候所說,當我們完成該項目時,我們將能夠每年生產 7.3 億加侖,這應該會在今年年底實現。總而言之,從營運和專案角度來看,我們正在向前推進,完成工作,並將在今年年底做好準備。

  • Kristina Anna Kazarian - VP of Finance & IR

    Kristina Anna Kazarian - VP of Finance & IR

  • All right. With that, thank you so much, everyone, today for your interest in Marathon Petroleum Corporation. Should you have additional questions or would you like clarification on topics discussed this morning, please reach out, and our team will be available to take your calls. Thanks so much for joining us.

    好的。在此,非常感謝大家今天對馬拉松石油公司的關注。如果您還有其他問題或希望對今天上午討論的主題進行澄清,請聯絡我們,我們的團隊將隨時接聽您的電話。非常感謝您加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

    謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連線。