Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the MPC fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Amanda, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

    歡迎參加 MPC 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫阿曼達,今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。(操作員指示)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。

  • I would now turn the call over to Kristina Kazarian. Kristina, you may begin.

    現在我將電話轉給克里斯蒂娜·卡扎里安。克里斯蒂娜,你可以開始囉。

  • Kristina Kazarian - Vice President - Finance and Investor Relations

    Kristina Kazarian - Vice President - Finance and Investor Relations

  • Welcome to Marathon Petroleum Corporation's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. The slides that accompany this call can be found on our website at marathonpetroleum.com under the Investor tab. Joining me on the call today are Maryann Mannen, CEO; John Quaid, CFO; and other members of the MPC and MPLX executive team.

    歡迎參加馬拉松石油公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。本次電話會議的幻燈片可以在我們網站 marathonpetroleum.com 的「投資者」標籤下找到。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有執行長 Maryann Mannen;約翰‧奎德(John Quaid),財務長;以及 MPC 和 MPLX 執行團隊的其他成員。

  • We invite you to read the safe harbor statements on slide 2. We will be making forward-looking statements today. Actual results may differ. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included there as well as in our filings with the SEC.

    我們邀請您閱讀投影片 2 上的安全港聲明。今天我們將發表前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能有所不同。可能導致實際結果不同的因素都列在其中,以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。

  • I wanted to quickly highlight our new segment reporting, which includes a renewable diesel segment. We believe this expanded level of reporting will enhance our comparability with our peers and provide you with more insight into our financial performance and capital allocation decisions.

    我想快速強調一下我們的新分部報告,其中包括再生柴油分部。我們相信,擴大報告範圍將增強我們與同行的可比性,並讓您更深入了解我們的財務表現和資本配置決策。

  • Previously, the results of the renewable diesel business were included in our Refining and Marketing segment. For your reference, slides 24 and 25 provide illustrations of this reporting change, and we have provided recast historical financials in our investor packet available on our website.

    此前,再生柴油業務的表現納入我們的煉油和行銷部門。供您參考,投影片 24 和 25 提供了此報告變更的說明,並且我們在網站上的投資者資訊包中提供了重鑄的歷史財務數據。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Maryann.

    說完這些,我將把電話轉給瑪麗安。

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Kristina, and good morning. Let me take a moment to highlight a few elements of our performance that we were -- that were most relevant to our results.

    謝謝,克里斯蒂娜,早安。請容許我花點時間來強調我們表演中與我們的表現最相關的幾個因素。

  • In 2024, we executed on our strategic commitments. First and foremost, we achieved our lowest company-wide OSHA recordable injury rate and strongest environmental performance in the last five years, demonstrating our commitment to safety and reliability.

    2024年,我們履行了戰略承諾。首先,過去五年來,我們實現了全公司最低的職業安全與健康管理局記錄傷害率和最強勁的環境績效,證明了我們對安全和可靠性的承諾。

  • Over the full year, we delivered Refining and Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA per barrel of $5.33. Our commitment to operational excellence, commercial performance and peer-leading profitability per barrel in each of the regions in which we operate drove our strong results with refining utilization of 92% and commercial capture of 99%. Our Midstream segment, which is where we report MPLX's results, grew adjusted EBITDA by 6% year over year.

    全年來看,我們煉油與行銷部門調整後的每桶 EBITDA 為 5.33 美元。我們致力於在每個營運地區實現卓越的營運、商業績效和同業領先的每桶獲利能力,這推動了我們取得強勁的業績,煉油利用率達到 92%,商業捕獲率達到 99%。我們的中游部門(也就是我們報告 MPLX 績效的地方)調整後 EBITDA 年成長 6%。

  • In 2024, MPLX increased its quarterly distribution by 12.5%, driving an annualized cash distribution to MPC of $2.5 billion. This was the third consecutive year of distribution growth of 10% or greater. This was the fourth consecutive year of MPLX generating mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth. Since 2021, we've grown adjusted EBITDA at a compound annual rate of 7%.

    2024 年,MPLX 的季度分配增加了 12.5%,推動 MPC 的年度現金分配達到 25 億美元。這是連續第三年分銷量成長率達到或超過 10%。這是 MPLX 連續第四年實現中等個位數調整後 EBITDA 成長。自 2021 年以來,我們的調整後 EBITDA 以 7% 的複合年增長率成長。

  • Our full year net cash from operations was $8.7 billion. This enabled peer-leading capital return of $10.2 billion and a 23% capital return yield for our shareholders, in a business where there is significant value and the ability to return capital to shareholders.

    我們全年經營淨現金為 87 億美元。這使得我們的資本回報率達到同業領先水準的102億美元,並為股東帶來23%的資本回報率,而我們的業務具有重大價值,並且能夠向股東返還資本。

  • The global macro environment continues to deliver refined product demand growth and we expect 2025 will be another year of record refined product demand in our domestic and export businesses, we have seen steady year-over-year demand for gasoline and diesel and growth in demand for jet fuel. Fourth quarter refining margins exhibited their typical seasoned weakness. We expect margins will improve in the second half of this year as announced to refinery closures offset recent capacity additions.

    全球宏觀環境持續推動成品油需求成長,我們預期 2025 年將是我們國內和出口業務成品油需求再創紀錄的一年,我們看到汽油和柴油的需求同比穩定,航空燃料的需求則有所增長。第四季的煉油利潤率表現出典型的疲軟態勢。我們預計今年下半年利潤率將會提高,因為宣布的煉油廠關閉抵消了近期產能增加。

  • Leveraging our fully integrated refining system and geographic diversification across the Gulf Coast, Mid-Con and West Coast regions, we are well positioned to perform in this dynamic market environment. Longer term, we believe fundamentals support an enhanced to mid-cycle environment for refining as we expect demand growth to exceed the net impact of capacity additions and rationalizations through the end of the decade.

    利用我們完全一體化的煉油系統和遍布墨西哥灣沿岸、中部地區和西海岸地區的地理多樣化,我們在這個充滿活力的市場環境中佔據有利地位。從長期來看,我們認為基本面因素支持煉油業進入中期週期,因為我們預計到本世紀末,需求成長將超過產能增加和合理化改造的淨影響。

  • We expect the US refining industry to remain structurally advantaged over the rest of the world, mainly due to the availability of low-cost energy. We remain steadfast in our commitment to safely and reliably operate our assets and protect the health and safety of our employees, business partners and the community in which we operate.

    我們預計,美國煉油業仍將比世界其​​他地區保持結構性優勢,這主要得益於低成本能源的供應。我們堅定不移地致力於安全可靠地運作我們的資產,並保護我們的員工、業務合作夥伴以及我們所在社區的健康和安全。

  • Our high complexity refining assets in our domestic and international logistical and commercial capabilities further increase our global competitive advantage. We are committed to achieving peer-leading profitability in every region in which we operate. And over the past several years, we have acted to advance on this commitment.

    我們在國內和國際物流和商業能力方面擁有的高度複雜的煉油資產進一步增強了我們的全球競爭優勢。我們致力於在我們經營的每個地區實現同業領先的獲利能力。過去幾年來,我們一直致力於履行這項承諾。

  • We have made sustained structural changes to improve our cost competitiveness while maintaining safe and reliable operations. Throughout our commercial organization, we are improving value chain optimization with a more integrated an advanced approach to our execution.

    我們進行了持續的結構性變革,以提高我們的成本競爭力,同時保持安全可靠的營運。在我們的整個商業組織中,我們正在採用更一體化、更先進的方法來改善價值鏈最佳化。

  • We made disciplined investments in our refining and marketing value chains targeted to enhance margins, reduce cost and optimize systems. Across all three of our regions, we see the results of these actions. Along the US Gulf Coast, where 42% of our capacity exists, we have more than 1.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity, which leverage feedstock and logistics flexibility to provide a wide range of products to meet US and export demand.

    我們對煉油和行銷價值鏈進行了嚴格的投資,目的是提高利潤率、降低成本和優化系統。在我們所有三個地區,我們都看到了這些行動的成果。我們的煉油能力有 42% 分佈在美國墨西哥灣沿岸,那裡的煉油能力超過 120 萬桶/天,充分利用原料和物流的靈活性,提供廣泛的產品以滿足美國和出口的需求。

  • 40% of our capacity is defined as our US Mid-Con regions. We have eight refineries with a total capacity of 1.2 million barrels per day, which capture market opportunities by leveraging our access to advantaged feedstocks, logistics and optimization of our large integrated value chain in the region.

    我們的 40% 容量被定義為美國中部和北部地區。我們擁有八家煉油廠,總產能為每天120萬桶,利用我們在該地區的優勢原料、物流和大型綜合價值鏈的最佳化來抓住市場機會。

  • The remaining 18% of our capacity resides along the US West Coast anchored by our 365,000 barrel per day Los Angeles Refinery and its fully integrated value chain, which benefits from feedstock and product optionality and a highly competitive marketing business. Our commitment to safe and reliable operations, operational excellence and commercial performance position us to deliver peer-leading financial performance, irrespective of the market environment.

    我們剩餘的 18% 產能位於美國西海岸,以每天 365,000 桶的洛杉磯煉油廠及其完全整合的價值鏈為支撐,該價值鏈受益於原料和產品的可選性以及競爭激烈的營銷業務。我們致力於安全可靠的營運、卓越的營運和商業績效,這使我們能夠在無論市場環境如何的情況下提供同業領先的財務表現。

  • Our disciplined capital investments have also strengthened our competitiveness in each of the regions in which we operate. Looking into 2025, we believe our planned capital investments will further enhance MPC's position well into the future. MPC's capital outlook for 2025, excluding MPLX, totals $1.25 billion.

    我們嚴謹的資本投資也增強了我們在每個經營地區的競爭力。展望 2025 年,我們相信我們計劃的資本投資將進一步增強 MPC 未來的地位。MPC 對 2025 年的資本預期(不包括 MPLX)總額為 12.5 億美元。

  • Underpinning our commitment to safety performance and environmental stewardship, sustaining capital is approximately 30% of capital spend. Investments in our Refining and Marketing segment are focused on value-enhancing and cost reduction opportunities with expected returns averaging around 30%.

    作為我們對安全績效和環境管理承諾的基礎,維持資本約佔資本支出的 30%。我們對煉油和行銷部門的投資主要集中於增值和降低成本的機會,預期回報率平均約為 30%。

  • Renewable diesel capital spend in 2025 is limited and will be focused on sustaining current operations. I'll provide some details on three of our major multiyear projects that meet our criteria for investment. We are progressing the distillate hydrotreater project at Galveston Bay, where we are investing to construct a 90,000 barrel per day high-pressure distillate hydrotreater.

    2025 年再生柴油資本支出有限,將集中於維持目前營運。我將詳細介紹符合我們投資標準的三個主要多年期項目。我們正在推進加爾維斯頓灣的餾分油加氫處理項目,我們將在那裡投資建造一座日產 90,000 桶的高壓餾分油加氫處理裝置。

  • Once in service, the new distillate hydrotreater will upgrade high sulfur distillate to ultra-low sulfur diesel, allowing us to place product in this higher-value market. This project is expected to be completed by year-end 2027 and generate a return of over 20%.

    一旦投入使用,新的餾分油加氫處理裝置將把高硫餾分油升級為超低硫柴油,使我們能夠將產品投入這個更高價值的市場。該項目預計2027年底完工,回報率超過20%。

  • The Los Angeles Refinery is a core asset in our West Coast value chain and one of the most competitive refineries in the region. This low carbon refining investment once completed, is expected to further enhance its competitiveness by integrating and modernizing utility systems to improve reliability and increase energy efficiency.

    洛杉磯煉油廠是我們西海岸價值鏈的核心資產,也是該地區最具競爭力的煉油廠之一。這項低碳煉油投資一旦完成,預計將透過整合和現代化公用事業系統來提高可靠性和提高能源效率,從而進一步增強其競爭力。

  • Additionally, a portion of the improvements address a regulation mandating emissions reductions for all Southern California refineries. The improvements are expected to be completed by the end of this year. We expect to generate a return on our investment of approximately 20%.

    此外,部分改善措施還涉及要求南加州所有煉油廠減少排放的規定。預計改進工程將於今年底完成。我們預計投資回報約為20%。

  • The Robinson product flexibility project is expected to further extend the competitive position of our Mid-Con value chain by shifting yields to higher-value products. This investment will increase the Robinson refinery's flexibility to maximize jet production to meet growing demand. We expect the project to be completed by the end of 2026 and generate a return of approximately 25%.

    羅賓遜產品靈活性計畫有望透過將收益轉移到更高價值的產品來進一步擴大我們 Mid-Con 價值鏈的競爭地位。這項投資將提高羅賓遜煉油廠的靈活性,最大限度地提高噴射燃料產量,並滿足日益增長的需求。我們預計該項目將於 2026 年底完工,並產生約 25% 的回報。

  • The strategic investments at our Galveston Bay, Los Angeles and Robinson refineries ensure we provide the clean burning fuels of the world demand and further strengthen the competitive position of our US Gulf Coast, West Coast and Mid-Con value chains.

    我們對加爾維斯頓灣、洛杉磯和羅賓遜煉油廠的策略性投資確保我們提供滿足世界需求的清潔燃料,並進一步加強我們美國墨西哥灣沿岸、西海岸和中部地區價值鏈的競爭地位。

  • This morning, MPLX also announced its 2025 capital outlook of $2 billion, including $1.7 billion of growth capital and $300 million of maintenance capital. Approximately 85% of its growth capital will be allocated to investments to grow MPLX's natural gas and NGL businesses in support of expected increased producer activity.

    今天上午,MPLX也宣布了2025年20億美元的資本預期,其中包括17億美元的成長資本和3億美元的維護資本。約 85% 的成長資本將用於投資發展 MPLX 的天然氣和 NGL 業務,以支援預期增加的生產活動。

  • MPLX is investing to expand its Permian to Gulf Coast integrated NGL value chain, progressing long-haul pipeline projects and grow Permian and Marcellus processing capacity. MPLX anticipates mid-teen returns on its growth capital outlook, which will extend the durability of its mid-single-digit growth profile.

    MPLX 正在投資擴大其從二疊紀到墨西哥灣沿岸的綜合 NGL 價值鏈,推進長途管道項目,並提高二疊紀和馬塞勒斯的加工能力。MPLX 預計其成長資本前景將獲得中等水準的回報率,這將延長其中位數成長前景的持久性。

  • Over the last four years, on average, we have grown our midstream segment adjusted EBITDA by almost 7% per year. The growth of MPLX's cash flows, combined with its strong distribution coverage and low leverage, provides MPLX considerable financial flexibility. We believe MPLX is positioned for additional distribution increases like the 12.5% announced in 2024 in the future.

    在過去四年中,我們中游部門的調整後 EBITDA 平均每年增長近 7%。MPLX 現金流的成長,加上其強大的分銷覆蓋範圍和低槓桿率,為 MPLX 提供了相當大的財務靈活性。我們相信 MPLX 未來能夠實現額外的分銷成長,就像 2024 年宣布的 12.5% 一樣。

  • MPLX reached a significant milestone in its NGL wellhead to water value chain strategy with the announcement of a project to construct the Gulf Coast fractionation complex and export terminal. MPLX's fully integrated NGL value chain connects the Permian to the Gulf Coast and will supply growing global demand for LPGs.

    MPLX 宣布啟動墨西哥灣沿岸分餾綜合設施和出口終端建設項目,標誌著其 NGL 井口至水價值鏈策略取得了重要里程碑。MPLX 完全整合的 NGL 價值鏈將二疊紀盆地與墨西哥灣沿岸連接起來,並將滿足全球對 LPG 日益增長的需求。

  • The multiyear $2.5 billion investment in the fractionation complex and export terminal complements MPLX's existing asset base and leverages existing infrastructure. MPLX will build and operate the Gulf Coast fractionation complex, consisting of two 150,000 barrel per day fractionation facilities and a 400,000 barrel per day LPG export terminal, all of which will be located adjacent to MPC's Galveston Bay refinery.

    對分餾綜合設施和出口終端的多年 25 億美元投資補充了 MPLX 現有的資產基礎並利用了現有的基礎設施。MPLX 將建造和營運墨西哥灣沿岸分餾綜合設施,包括兩個日產 15 萬桶的分餾設施和一個日產 40 萬桶的液化石油氣出口終端,所有分餾設施均位於 MPC 加爾維斯頓灣煉油廠附近。

  • MPLX has entered into joint venture agreements with ONEOK for the export terminal and the bidirectional purity pipeline between Mont Belvieu and Texas City. ONEOK will market its 200,000 barrels per day and provide connectivity to Mont Belvieu storage, enhancing the competitiveness of the terminal.

    MPLX 已與 ONEOK 簽訂了合資協議,共同建造出口終端和蒙特貝爾維尤與德克薩斯城之間的雙向純度管道。ONEOK 將銷售其每天 20 萬桶石油,並提供與 Mont Belvieu 儲存設施的連接,從而增強該終端的競爭力。

  • We also believe this strategic partnership with ONEOK will create additional optionality and value for our customers. We also see it as a platform for future collaboration and growth across our Gulf Coast assets.

    我們也相信,與 ONEOK 的策略合作夥伴關係將為我們的客戶創造額外的選擇和價值。我們也將其視為未來跨墨西哥灣沿岸資產合作與成長的平台。

  • MPLX plans to market methane production from the fracs to both existing and new customers. Leveraging our strategic relationship with MPLX, MPC plans to contract with MPLX to purchase the remaining LPG production from the frac, which MPC will market globally through its existing market businesses via the new export terminal.

    MPLX 計劃向現有客戶和新客戶推銷壓裂生產的甲烷。利用與MPLX的戰略關係,MPC計劃與MPLX簽訂合同,購買壓裂產生的剩餘液化石油氣,然後MPC將通過新的出口終端,利用其現有的市場業務在全球範圍內銷售這些產品。

  • The fractionation facilities are expected to be in service in 2028 and 2029, and the export terminal is expected to be in service in early 2028. We anticipate mid-teen returns on the project, which is expected to begin generating EBITDA when placed in service in 2028 and will ramp through the end of 2030. Additionally, we believe the expansion of our Gulf Coast NGL value chain will create a platform for optimization and incremental growth opportunities.

    分餾設施預計將於 2028 年和 2029 年投入使用,出口終端預計將於 2028 年初投入使用。我們預計該專案的回報率將達到 15% 左右,預計 2028 年投入使用後將開始產生 EBITDA,到 2030 年底將逐步實現。此外,我們相信墨西哥灣沿岸 NGL 價值鏈的擴張將為優化和增量成長機會創造一個平台。

  • Our capital allocation priorities remain consistent. Our number 1 priority is sustaining capital. We remain steadfast in our commitment to safely operate our assets and protect the health and safety of our employees and the communities in which we operate.

    我們的資本配置重點保持一致。我們的首要任務是維持資本。我們堅定不移地致力於安全運營我們的資產並保護我們員工和我們經營所在社區的健康和安全。

  • We are committed to paying a secure, competitive and growing dividend. We will invest where we believe there are attractive returns, which will enhance our competitiveness, and position MPC well into the future. Beyond these three objectives, we will return all excess capital through share repurchases.

    我們致力於支付安全、有競爭力且不斷成長的股息。我們將在我們認為有可觀回報的地方進行投資,這將增強我們的競爭力,並為 MPC 的未來做好充分準備。除了這三個目標之外,我們還將透過股票回購歸還所有過剩資本。

  • As of the end of the year, we had $7.8 billion remaining under our share repurchase authorization, highlighting our commitment to superior shareholder returns. The durable and growing cash flow of MPLX differentiates MPC from peers. MPLX is strategic to MPC's portfolio, and therefore, its value proposition.

    截至年底,我們的股票回購授權餘額為 78 億美元,這突顯了我們對卓越股東回報的承諾。MPLX持久且不斷成長的現金流使MPC從同行中脫穎而出。MPLX 對於 MPC 的產品組合而言具有戰略意義,因此對其價值主張也具有戰略意義。

  • We expect distributions from MPLX in 2025 will cover MPC's dividend and stand-alone capital outlook. Operating cash flow generated by our Refining and Marketing and Renewable Diesel segment, are expected to be available for capital return through share repurchases.

    我們預計 2025 年 MPLX 的分配將涵蓋 MPC 的股利和獨立資本前景。我們煉油和行銷以及再生柴油部門產生的營運現金流預計將透過股票回購用於資本回報。

  • With our highly advantaged refining business and the $2.5 billion annualized distribution from MPLX, we are positioned to lead peers in capital returns through all market cycles. Let me turn the call over to John.

    憑藉我們極具優勢的煉油業務以及 MPLX 提供的 25 億美元年化分紅,我們有能力在所有市場週期內在資本回報方面領先於同業。讓我把電話轉給約翰。

  • John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Maryann. Moving to the fourth quarter and full year highlights, slide 14 provides a summary of our financial results.

    謝謝,瑪麗安。轉到第四季度和全年亮點,投影片 14 提供了我們的財務表現摘要。

  • This morning, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.77 for the fourth quarter and $9.51 for the full year. Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $2.1 billion for the quarter, and $11.3 billion for the year. Refining and Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA per barrel was $2.03 for the quarter and $5.33 for the year.

    今天上午,我們報告第四季度調整後每股收益為 0.77 美元,全年調整後每股收益為 9.51 美元。本季調整後 EBITDA 約 21 億美元,全年調整後 EBITDA 約 113 億美元。煉油與行銷部門調整後的季度 EBITDA 每桶為 2.03 美元,全年為 5.33 美元。

  • Cash flow from operations, excluding working capital changes, was $1.7 billion for the quarter and nearly $8.2 billion for the year. And during the quarter, we returned $292 million to shareholders through dividends and repurchased nearly $1.3 billion of our shares.

    不包括營運資本變動的營運現金流本季為 17 億美元,全年接近 82 億美元。本季度,我們透過股息向股東返還了 2.92 億美元,並回購了近 13 億美元的股票。

  • Slide 15 shows the sequential change in adjusted EBITDA from third to fourth quarter 2024 and the reconciliation between net income and adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was lower sequentially by approximately $400 million, driven by decreased results in our Refining and Marketing segment, slightly offset by improved results for our midstream and renewable diesel segments. The tax rate for the quarter was 12%, largely reflecting the earnings mix between our R&M and midstream businesses.

    投影片 15 顯示了 2024 年第三季至第四季調整後 EBITDA 的連續變化,以及本季淨收入與調整後 EBITDA 之間的對帳。調整後 EBITDA 環比下降約 4 億美元,主要由於煉油和行銷部門業績下降,但中游和再生柴油部門業績改善略微抵消了這一影響。本季的稅率為 12%,主要反映了我們的 R&M 與中游業務之間的獲利組合。

  • Moving to our Refining and Marketing segment results for the fourth quarter on slide 16, lower crack spreads, mainly in the Mid-Con region were the primary driver for lower R&M margins in the fourth quarter. Our refineries ran at 94% utilization, processing nearly 2.8 million barrels of crude per day and refining operating costs were $5.26 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

    查看投影片 16 上第四季煉油行銷部門的業績,裂解價差下降(主要是在 Mid-Con 地區)是第四季度 R&M 利潤率下降的主要原因。我們的煉油廠利用率為 94%,第四季每天處理近 280 萬桶原油,煉油營運成本為每桶 5.26 美元。

  • Turning to slide 17, solid commercial execution as well as typical seasonal tailwinds drove fourth quarter capture of 119%. We leveraged the scale of our fully integrated system in all three regions to capture margin opportunities across our entire value chain from feedstocks to products. We are committed to improving our commercial performance and believe we are building capabilities that will provide sustained incremental value and will produce results that can be seen in our financials.

    轉到第 17 張投影片,穩健的商業執行以及典型的季節性順風推動第四季的捕獲率達到 119%。我們利用三個地區的全面整合系統的規模,抓住從原料到產品的整個價值鏈中的利潤機會。我們致力於提高我們的商業表現,並相信我們正在建立能夠提供持續增量價值並產生可以在我們的財務中看到的結果的能力。

  • Slide 18 shows our Midstream segment performance for the quarter. Our Midstream segment continues to deliver cash flow growth as segment adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was up nearly 5% sequentially. MPLX, which is the largest portion of our Midstream segment remains a source of durable growth as it progresses its mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth strategy.

    幻燈片 18 展示了我們本季的中游部門業績。我們的中游部門持續實現現金流成長,本季部門調整後 EBITDA 較上季成長近 5%。MPLX 是我們中游部門最大的一部分,隨著其中等個位數調整後 EBITDA 成長策略的推進,它仍然是持久成長的來源。

  • Slide 19 presents the elements of change in our consolidated cash position for the fourth quarter. Operating cash flow, excluding changes in working capital, was $1.7 billion in the quarter, driven by both our Refining and Midstream businesses.

    投影片 19 展示了我們第四季綜合現金狀況的變化因素。本季營運現金流(不包括營運資本變動)為 17 億美元,主要得益於煉油和中游業務的推動。

  • Working capital was a $497 million source of cash for the quarter, primarily driven by benefits from inventory reductions and a decrease in refined product prices. Capital expenditures, investments and acquisitions were $935 million for the quarter. Cash was utilized to repay $1.15 billion of MPLX senior notes that matured in December.

    本季營運資金為4.97億美元的現金來源,主要得益於庫存減少和成品油價格下降。本季的資本支出、投資和收購為 9.35 億美元。現金用於償還 12 月到期的價值 11.5 億美元的 MPLX 優先票據。

  • And MPC returned almost $1.3 billion through share repurchases, exclusive of excise tax payments and $292 million in dividends during the quarter. At the end of the year, MPC had approximately $3.2 billion in consolidated cash, including MPC cash of $1.7 billion and MPLX cash of $1.5 billion.

    本季度,MPC 透過股票回購返還了近 13 億美元,不包括消費稅支付和 2.92 億美元的股息。截至年底,MPC 擁有約 32 億美元的合併現金,其中包括 17 億美元的 MPC 現金和 15 億美元的 MPLX 現金。

  • Turning to guidance. On slide 20, we provide our first quarter outlook. We are projecting crude throughput volumes of just over 2.5 million barrels per day, representing utilization of 85%. Turnaround expense is projected to be approximately $450 million in the first quarter with activity focused in the Gulf Coast and West Coast regions.

    轉向指導。在幻燈片 20 上,我們提供了第一季的展望。我們預計原油日產量將略高於 250 萬桶,利用率為 85%。預計第一季的周轉費用約為 4.5 億美元,活動主要集中在墨西哥灣沿岸和西海岸地區。

  • For the full year, turnaround expenses are expected to be similar to last year at around $1.4 billion. For the quarter, operating costs are projected to be $5.70 per the barrel. Distribution costs are expected to be approximately $1.5 billion and corporate costs are expected to be $220 million.

    就全年而言,預計扭虧為盈的費用與去年持平,約 14 億美元。本季的營運成本預計為每桶 5.70 美元。分銷成本預計約 15 億美元,公司成本預計為 2.2 億美元。

  • With that, let me pass it back to Maryann.

    說完這些,讓我將其交還給瑪麗安。

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, John. We are unwavering in our commitment to safe and reliable operations, operational excellence, commercial execution and our cost competitiveness yields sustainable structural benefits and position us to deliver peer-leading financial performance in each of the regions in which we operate. To deliver this, we will optimize our portfolio to deliver outperformance now and in the future.

    謝謝,約翰。我們堅定不移地致力於安全可靠的營運、卓越的營運、商業執行和成本競爭力,從而產生可持續的結構性效益,並使我們能夠在我們運營的每個地區提供同行領先的財務業績。為了實現這一目標,我們將優化我們的投資組合,以便現在和將來實現卓越的績效。

  • We'll leverage our value chain advantages and ensure the competitiveness of our assets while we continue to invest in our people. Our execution of these commitments position us to deliver the strongest through-cycle cash generation.

    我們將利用我們的價值鏈優勢,確保我們資產的競爭力,同時繼續投資我們的人才。我們對這些承諾的履行使我們能夠實現最強勁的全週期現金創造能力。

  • Durable midstream growth is expected to deliver cash flow uplift and expected to deliver distribution increase going forward, a differentiator from our peers. Investing capital where we believe there are attractive returns will enhance our competitiveness now and in the future.

    持久的中游成長預計將帶來現金流的提升,並有望帶來未來分銷的成長,這是我們與同行的不同之處。在我們認為能夠帶來可觀回報的地方進行資本投資將會增強我們現在和未來的競爭力。

  • We are committed to leading in capital allocation and will return excess capital through share repurchases. MPC is positioned to create exceptional value through peer-leading performance, execution of our strategic commitments and its compelling value proposition.

    我們致力於引領資本配置,並將透過股票回購返還多餘的資本。MPC 致力於透過同業領先的績效、履行策略承諾和引人注目的價值主張創造卓越的價值。

  • Let me turn the call back over to Kristina.

    讓我把電話轉回給克里斯蒂娜。

  • Kristina Kazarian - Vice President - Finance and Investor Relations

    Kristina Kazarian - Vice President - Finance and Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Maryann. As we open the call for your questions, as a courtesy to all participants, we ask you limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. If time permits, we will reprompt for additional questions. We will now open the call to questions.

    謝謝,瑪麗安。當我們開始回答您的問題時,出於對所有參與者的尊重,我們要求您將提問限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。如果時間允許,我們將再次提示其他問題。我們現在開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員指示)高盛的 Neil Mehta。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • I guess the first question is just on the Refining side. There was a $543 million positive capture impact in the quarter, 119% capture. I'm curious how much of that was seasonal, typically 4Q, you didn't capture well versus commercial. Anything you can do to unpack it either regionally or in terms of what the underlying drivers of that capture beat?

    我想第一個問題只是關於煉油方面。本季的正捕獲效應為 5.43 億美元,捕獲率為 119%。我很好奇其中有多少是季節性的,通常是第四季度,與商業相比你沒有很好地捕捉到。您能做什麼來從區域角度或從捕獲這種勝利的根本驅動因素角度來解決這個問題?

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Neil. So look, as you know, and if you look back over our last several fourth quarters over the past few years, our fourth quarter tends to be one of the strongest quarters. I think if you look at it over the last several years, we've averaged in a range of about [115 to 116].

    是的。謝謝,尼爾。所以,如你所知,如果回顧過去幾年的第四季度,我們的第四季往往是最強勁的季度之一。我認為,如果你回顧過去幾年,我們的平均值大約是[115至116]。

  • In general, as you know, when we look at capture, there are clearly things that we don't have control over. And then there are the things that we do have control over.

    總體來說,如你所知,當我們考慮捕獲時,顯然有些事情是我們無法控制的。還有一些事情我們確實可以控制。

  • As we've been sharing, our objective is to approach 100%. This year, on average, we reached 99% in the refining and marketing opportunity there. So clearly, some things that we believe have been structural in the work that we've been doing, we've been sharing over the last couple of quarters.

    正如我們一直分享的,我們的目標是接近 100%。今年,我們在那裡的煉油和行銷機會平均達到了 99%。顯然,我們認為一些在我們所做的工作中具有結構性的東西,我們在過去幾個季度中一直在分享。

  • And obviously, some of those that have just fourth quarter normal activity. But I'm going to pass it to Rick because I think you've got a few things that we'll give you some specifics on.

    顯然,其中一些公司在第四季才恢復正常活動。但我要把它交給里克,因為我認為你有一些事情需要我們具體說明。

  • Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

    Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, Neil, let me start by saying thank you for calling this out. This is obviously a significant focus for us and the team executed extremely well in the fourth quarter. So just a couple of nuggets for you. On the export side, Neil, we've been stating quarter after quarter that we're leaning into our export strategy.

    是的,尼爾,首先我要感謝你提出這個問題。這顯然是我們關注的重點,而且球隊在第四季的表現非常出色。我只給你們幾點小建議。在出口方面,尼爾,我們每季都在聲明我們正傾向於我們的出口策略。

  • And the fourth quarter was a great example of that. Our assets ran extremely well across the board, and we were able to lean into our export strategy and set records on volume and margin. So that's a piece of the puzzle, Neil.

    第四季就是一個很好的例子。我們的資產全線運作良好,我們能夠依靠我們的出口策略並創下銷售和利潤的記錄。這就是謎題的一部分,尼爾。

  • And then secondly, an area that we don't speak much of is asphalt, but I will say we had great execution on the asphalt front, allowing us to take advantage of improved asphalt spreads and execute our strategies driven by strong asphalt retail sales. So those are just a couple of nuggets, Neil. There's many more, but I'll just leave you with those two.

    其次,我們很少談論的一個領域是瀝青,但我要說的是,我們在瀝青方面的執行非常出色,這使我們能夠利用改進的瀝青價差,並在強勁的瀝青零售銷售的推動下執行我們的策略。所以這些只是一些要點,尼爾。還有很多,但我只留下這兩個。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Thank you, Rick. and the follow-up is just on MPLX and the wellhead-to-water strategy. The mid-teens returns that you're targeting on this, can you talk a little bit about some of the underlying assumptions?

    謝謝你,里克。後續工作只是關於MPLX和井口到水戰略。您所瞄準的十五六成的回報,能否談談一些基本的假設?

  • And is it fair to say that even though capital is coming in a little higher at the midstream side of the business, given the framework that you laid out here, where the buyback is coming from the Refining and Renewable Diesel business, higher MPLX spend won't impact the outlook for your ability to return capital?

    是否可以這樣說:即使中游業務的資本流入略高一些,但考慮到您在此處列出的框架,即回購來自煉油和再生柴油業務,更高的 MPLX 支出不會影響您回報資本的能力前景?

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, Neil, certainly, let me try to answer those questions for you. So first and foremost, when we think about this NGL wellhead-to-water strategy, you're right, we do expect mid-teens returns. You may know that over the last several quarters, we have been talking about the opportunity set.

    是的,尼爾,當然,讓我試著為你回答這些問題。因此,首先,當我們考慮這種 NGL 井口到水策略時,您是對的,我們確實預計會有中等程度的回報。您可能知道,過去幾季我們一直在談論機會集。

  • But frankly, we've been looking at this project for a period of time. So underlying assumptions with respect to overall capital that we need to spend, timing of that markets that we will serve, cost to get implemented or all things that we have considered and evaluate it to be sure that when we look at this project that we're confident in these mid-single-digit returns.

    但坦白說,我們已經關注這個專案有一段時間了。因此,關於我們需要花費的總資本、我們將服務的市場時機、實施成本或我們已經考慮和評估的所有事項的基本假設,以確保當我們審視這個項目時,我們對這些中等個位數的回報充滿信心。

  • I think the next project -- sorry, question that you asked was really about capital. And whether or not the capital that we would be spending in MPLX has implications for MPC. So the answer to that is no. As you know, MPLX has really solid balance sheet flexibility.

    我認為下一個項目——抱歉,您問的問題實際上是關於資本的。我們在 MPLX 上投入的資本是否會對 MPC 產生影響。所以答案是否定的。如您所知,MPLX 的資產負債表彈性確實非常強。

  • One, when you look at the debt-to-EBITDA ratio, we've talked about our ability to be in the range, plus or minus 4 times. We're somewhere in the range of three. So we absolutely have balance sheet flexibility there. Really all of that $2.5 billion multiyear capital in MPLX is largely MPLX. There's a $70 million piece that is MPC.

    首先,當你查看債務與 EBITDA 比率時,我們已經討論了我們能夠處於該範圍內的能力,即正負 4 倍。我們處於三個範圍之內。因此我們的資產負債表絕對具有彈性。實際上,MPLX 的這 25 億美元多年資本主要都用於 MPLX。其中有價值 7,000 萬美元的是 MPC。

  • And then the last part of that is as we continue to grow that MPLX distribution, you've heard me talk about the 12.5% increase. That's a $2.5 billion distribution to MPC. It covers the 2025 MPC dividend and the 2025 capital that we just announced of [1.25].

    最後一部分是,隨著我們繼續擴大 MPLX 分銷,您已經聽到我談到 12.5% 的成長。這意味著向 MPC 分配了 25 億美元。它涵蓋了我們剛剛宣布的 2025 年 MPC 股息和 2025 年資本[1.25]

  • Therefore, giving MPC the flexibility to return capital via share buyback. So balance sheet flexibility and MPLX will support the growth of those MPLX projects. I hope that gets you.

    因此,MPC 可以靈活地透過股票回購來返還資本。因此,資產負債表靈活性和 MPLX 將支持這些 MPLX 項目的成長。我希望這能對你有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

    道格‧萊格特(Doug Leggate),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Doug Leggate - Analyst

    Doug Leggate - Analyst

  • Fantastic result in Refining despite breakeven. We actually see that bullish. So well done. My question is, I hate to ask the obvious one, but we've got a 30-day delay now potentially on -- I don't know if it's posturing or not, but the tariff situation, you guys are obviously a large consumer of heavy barrels. My question is, what would be your -- how are you planning for the contingency?

    儘管收支平衡,煉油業務仍取得了出色的成績。我們確實看到了這種看漲情緒。做得太好了。我的問題是,我不想問這個顯而易見的問題,但我們現在可能有 30 天的延遲——我不知道這是否是姿態,但關稅情況,你們顯然是重型桶的大型消費者。我的問題是,您如何制定應急計畫?

  • What would the impact be, I'm thinking specifically about how does your plant adapt to a different diet of crude if you had to? Frame it for us in whatever way you like, but we're obviously all trying to struggle with what it would actually mean if the tariffs were in fact introduced?

    這會產生什麼影響?您想以何種方式來為我們建立框架,但我們顯然都在努力思考,如果真的徵收關稅,這到底意味著什麼?

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Doug, thanks for your question. Yes, it's interesting, studying tariffs has been at the top of the list of things that we've been doing among many others like running the business, right?

    道格,謝謝你的提問。是的,這很有趣,研究關稅一直是我們在經營企業等眾多事務中最重要的事情,對嗎?

  • But -- so when we think about the impact of tariffs, one, if they were to be imposed or not, still a variable question, we've got a highly integrated system, and we've got a lot of optionality, and we'll use that optionality.

    但是——當我們考慮關稅的影響時,首先,是否徵收關稅仍然是一個可變的問題,我們有一個高度整合的系統,我們有很多可選性,我們將使用這些可選性。

  • Having said that, as you state, we do process a significant amount of heavy crude. And therefore, we think it's likely if tariffs will be to put in place, seeing 30-plus days or not that we would see cost increases. We believe that the majority of that will ultimately be borne by the producer and then, frankly, to a lesser extent, the consumer.

    話雖如此,正如您所說,我們確實處理了大量重質原油。因此,我們認為,如果關稅實施,無論是否超過 30 天,我們都會看到成本增加。我們認為,其中大部分最終將由生產者承擔,其次,坦白說,由消費者承擔。

  • We, MPC will use our integrated system, our commercial excellence, our operational performance to really minimize the best that we can, the margin impact to our financial results. That's our goal. And we'll continue to evaluate.

    我們,MPC 將利用我們的整合系統、我們的商業卓越性和我們的營運績效,盡最大努力減少利潤率對我們財務表現的影響。這就是我們的目標。我們將繼續評估。

  • We're working with the administration, and we're working with agencies as well as the trade associations to be sure that the right people understand the implications of these decisions. But with that, let me pass it to Rick and he can give you a little more color on our diet.

    我們正在與政府、機構以及行業協會合作,以確保合適的人理解這些決定的含義。不過,說完這些,讓我把它傳給瑞克,他可以給你多一點關於我們飲食的資訊。

  • Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

    Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, Doug, a very timely question. As we have run scenario planning for every facility and market that we have coast-to-coast, so we're well versed in this, as you might expect. And Maryann hit it well when she touched on our integrated system, our knowledge, our commercial performance, we believe we're in as good or better shape than anyone in the industry to absorb a tariff, if it were to ever get put into place.

    是的,道格,這是一個非常及時的問題。由於我們對全國範圍內的每個設施和市場都進行了情境規劃,因此正如您所期望的那樣,我們對此非常熟悉。當瑪麗安談到我們的綜合系統、我們的知識、我們的商業表現時,她很好地闡述了這一點,我們相信,如果關稅真的實施,我們能夠像業內任何人一樣,甚至比任何公司更好地吸收關稅。

  • And maybe a good example of that, that I would want to unpack for you is in the Mid-Con, we have worked tirelessly for a long time on our logistics capability and connectivity. So many of our refineries in our Mid-Con region, we could look to pivot to alternative crudes because of our logistics capabilities, and we're quite unique that way.

    也許我想為您解釋的一個很好的例子就是在 Mid-Con,我們長期以來一直不懈地致力於提高我們的物流能力和連通性。由於我們的物流能力,我們位於中部和北部地區的許多煉油廠都可以考慮轉向替代原油,在這方面我們非常獨特。

  • And I would give you crudes to think of such as Bakken, Rockies, Utica, Marcellus as a few. So I want to leave you with every region is different. Every refinery is different, but we believe that we have done the scenario planning to make this as least painful as possible and in fact, we believe at the end of the day, in most regions, if not all, that we operate in, we'll have a competitive advantage against others who are running significant amounts of Canadian grades.

    我會給你舉幾個例子,像是巴肯、洛磯山脈、尤蒂卡、馬塞勒斯等。所以我想告訴大家的是,每個地區都是不同的。每家煉油廠的情況都不同,但我們相信,我們已經做好了情境規劃,盡可能減少痛苦。

  • Doug Leggate - Analyst

    Doug Leggate - Analyst

  • Rick, I appreciate the detailed answers from both of you. I wonder if I could just do a quick part beyond that. If you did displace heavy with a Bakken or similar crude, would that require utilization reduction?

    里克,我很感謝你們兩位的詳細回答。我想知道我是否可以只做一點簡單的工作。如果您確實用巴肯原油或類似原油取代重質原油,是否需要減少利用率?

  • Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

    Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

  • It may shift yields more than anything, Doug, and it could potentially impact utilization. However, I would lean you -- maybe ask you, as you look at yesterday as it played out.

    道格,它可能會比任何事情都更能改變收益,並且可能會影響利用率。然而,當你回顧昨天發生的事情時,我會傾向於——也許會問你。

  • The market was quickly sending signals that it would quickly respond and absorb a lot of the indicators that would continue to make potentially a heavy barrel economic to run. As Maryann said, we do believe the producer will bear a large part of the impact. So I would say, a light switch within our system, we believe would have minimal impact.

    市場迅速發出訊號,表明它將迅速做出反應並吸收大量指標,這些指標將繼續潛在地推動重桶經濟的運作。正如瑪麗安所說,我們確實相信生產商將承擔很大一部分影響。因此我想說,我們相信,我們系統內的燈開關的影響將微乎其微。

  • Doug Leggate - Analyst

    Doug Leggate - Analyst

  • Maryann, I've got a very quick follow-up, which is I wanted to pick on one of your comments at the end of your prepared remarks. We will optimize our portfolio. I wonder if you could care to elaborate on what that means. And I'll leave it here.

    瑪麗安,我有一個非常快速的後續問題,我想挑選一下你在準備好的發言結束時提出的一條評論。我們將優化我們的投資組合。我想知道您是否願意詳細說明這是什麼意思。我就把它留在這裡。

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, certainly, Doug. You know for the last several years, one of our strategic pillars is to ensure the competitiveness of all of our assets that has been in place historically and will continue to be in place. We need to be sure that every one of our assets is delivering the cash flow that we expect and is part of our long-term scenario for how we will operate in the future. So we'll continue to look at that all the time.

    是的,當然了,道格。您知道,在過去幾年中,我們的策略支柱之一就是確保所有資產的競爭力,而這策略支柱一直存在並將繼續存在。我們需要確保我們的每一項資產都能產生預期的現金流,並且是我們未來長期營運規劃的一部分。因此我們會一直關注這個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Maryann, I wanted to congratulate you. I think when you took over the CEO, one of your key goals was that to fully fund the dividend and CapEx at MPC through MPLX. And our model got you there, but we got to do more in '26 and '27. We didn't have you getting there in 2025. So congratulations on that.

    瑪麗安,我想祝賀你。我認為當您接任執行長時,您的一個主要目標是透過 MPLX 為 MPC 提供全額股息和資本支出資金。我們的模型已經幫你達到了這個目標,但我們要在 26 年和 27 年做得更多。我們沒有想到你在 2025 年就能到達那裡。對此我表示祝賀。

  • My question here is we think about MPC's buybacks as funded by R&D and Refining with MPLX funding the dividend and CapEx, but the projects that you announced today could put you on a distribution growth path of 12% for four or five years. So starting 2026, is it possible that MPLX distribution is not only funding the CapEx, the dividend, but also possible buybacks at MPC?

    我的問題是,我們認為 MPC 的回購資金來自研發和煉油,而 MPLX 則負責提供股息和資本支出資金,但您今天宣布的項目可能會讓您在四到五年內實現 12% 的分銷增長率。那麼從 2026 年開始,MPLX 分配是否不僅可以為資本支出和股利提供資金,還可以為 MPC 提供回購資金?

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Manav. So we have been trying to demonstrate that our cash flows being generated at MPLX are durable, and that we can put together capital as well as small M&A bolt-on that can support mid-single-digit growth for a period of time. And hopefully, today, the announcement of our NGL strategy, wellhead-to-water value chain isn't yet another example of that in addition to some of the investments that we made in 2024, expansion of Bangal.

    謝謝你,Manav。因此,我們一直在努力證明 MPLX 產生的現金流是持久的,並且我們可以整合資本以及小型併購附加措施,以在一段時間內支持中等個位數的成長。希望今天宣布的 NGL 策略、從井口到水的價值鏈不是我們在 2024 年進行的一些投資(Bangal 擴張)之外的另一個例子。

  • As an example, our Summit acquisition in the Utica and Wintoebster. That 12.5% distribution increase that we announced in November of 2024, we also said we thought had the ability to be sustaining in similar nature for the next several years.

    例如,我們在尤蒂卡和溫托布斯特收購了 Summit。我們在 2024 年 11 月宣布的 12.5% 的股利成長,我們也表示,我們認為未來幾年能夠維持類似的成長動能。

  • So as we continue to grow, we certainly believe that distribution coming back to MPC gives us flexibility for peer-leading capital allocation. We think it's a differentiator. And certainly, we believe that, that growing distribution to MPC will allow us to increase our share repurchase in the future.

    因此,隨著我們的不斷發展,我們堅信回歸 MPC 的分配將為我們帶來領先同業的資本配置彈性。我們認為這是一個差異化因素。當然,我們相信,增加對 MPC 的分配將使我們能夠在未來增加股票回購。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Perfect. My quick follow-up is a little bit on the West Coast. Another refinery is probably going to go down at the year-end. There are some reports of an unplanned refinery downtime also in first half now.

    完美的。我的快速跟進是在西海岸。年底可能會有另一家煉油廠關閉。目前有通報上半年煉油廠也出現了計畫外停工的情況。

  • So just trying to understand from your perspective, the dynamics on the West Coast, understanding that the regulatory environment may not be the best, but from the perspective of supply/demand, the region might still work for you?

    所以只是想從你的角度了解西海岸的動態,了解監管環境可能不是最好的,但從供需角度來看,該地區可能仍然適合你?

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Actually, I think you said it well. As you know, we have made some commitments and investments. I talked about one of them here on the call this morning for our Los Angeles asset. One, we think it is a really efficiency capital investment.

    是的。其實我覺得你說得很好。如您所知,我們已經做出了一些承諾和投資。今天早上我在電話會議上談到了我們洛杉磯資產的其中一個。首先,我們認為這是一項真正有效率的資本投資。

  • We also think, obviously, it meets the required NOx reduction emission requirements going forward, and gives us incremental efficiency and profitability, particularly in a low carbon environment.

    我們也認為,顯然它滿足了未來所需的氮氧化物減排要求,並為我們帶來了更高的效率和獲利能力,特別是在低碳環境下。

  • Certainly, we understand the challenges of doing business in this environment. You know this well. I mean we have evaluated our ability to participate in this region for many, many years. Hence, the decision that we made back in 2020 to close Martinez as a fossil fuel refinery and then in early in '21, the decision to convert it to renewable diesel.

    當然,我們了解在這種環境下開展業務的挑戰。你很清楚這一點。我的意思是,我們已經評估了我們參與該地區事務的能力很多年了。因此,我們早在 2020 年就決定關閉馬丁內斯化石燃料煉油廠,然後在 21 年初決定將其轉變為再生柴油。

  • We're working closely with the agencies in the state to ensure that we understand and in similar fashion, as I mentioned earlier, through our trade associations also really trying to understand and, frankly, influence be of help so that those making the regulatory decisions and the legislative decisions in the state have the facts that they need to make good decisions.

    我們正在與州內各機構密切合作,以確保我們理解,並以類似的方式,正如我之前提到的,透過我們的行業協會也真正試圖理解,坦率地說,影響力會有所幫助,以便那些制定監管決策和立法決策的人在該州掌握做出正確決策所需的事實。

  • We continue to believe our asset on the West Coast is one of the most competitive, particularly when you look at the integrated nature of it, the MPLX as well as its ability to process various crudes, et cetera. So yes, we continue to believe in the long-term viability of that asset.

    我們仍然相信,我們在西海岸的資產是最具競爭力的資產之一,特別是當你考慮到它的綜合性質、MPLX以及它處理各種原油的能力等等。所以是的,我們仍然相信資產的長期可行性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

    加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

  • Paul Cheng - Analyst

    Paul Cheng - Analyst

  • Maryann, this year, I think you guys saying that your turnaround cost is about $1.4 billion, similar to last year, which is quite high. So trying to understand that average for the cycle, what's considered as a normal turnaround cost for you guys? Is $1.4 billion the new normal or this is considered somewhat a high yield?

    瑪麗安,我想你們今年的轉虧為盈成本約為 14 億美元,與去年相似,這個成本相當高。那麼,試著了解週期的平均值,對你們來說,正常的周轉成本是多少?14 億美元是新常態嗎,還是這被認為是相當高的收益?

  • John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Paul, it's John. I'll maybe start with that, and then we'll see what follow-ups you might have. Certainly, like you said, we're looking at $1.4 billion for this year, similar to last year's. If you look back over the last several years, it gets a little bit hard to see a run rate, right? You would have had COVID where we really would have slowed down, that would have pushed some turnarounds to the right, if you will into future years.

    保羅,我是約翰。我可能會從那裡開始,然後我們再看看你可能有什麼後續行動。當然,正如您所說,我們今年的預期收入為 14 億美元,與去年差不多。如果回顧過去幾年,會發現運行率有點難看出,對嗎?如果你願意的話,如果發生了新冠肺炎疫情,我們真的會放慢腳步,這將推動未來幾年出現一些改善。

  • We also continue to invest in our assets and change the capacity of what we have. I mean, interestingly, if you go back pre-COVID and post either shutting down or converting refineries, we're almost back to the same or more capacity than we were previously.

    我們也將繼續投資我們的資產並改變現有資產的產能。我的意思是,有趣的是,如果你回到 COVID 之前,並在關閉或改造煉油廠後,我們的產能幾乎恢復到與以前相同或更多的水平。

  • So I think all of those things are driving that number. And again, and Tim and the team can speak to this, right? Those are scheduled outages that we have on the cycle that we're managing to that we need to get done. I think, though, I was trying to give you some factors, though, that are maybe driving the $1.4 billion we're seeing for this year.

    所以我認為所有這些因素都在推動這個數字。再說一次,提姆和團隊可以談論這一點,對嗎?這些都是我們在管理週期內需要完成的計畫停機。不過,我想我試圖給你一些因素,這些因素可能是推動我們今年看到 14 億美元收入的原因。

  • Paul Cheng - Analyst

    Paul Cheng - Analyst

  • John, thank you for that. However, about what consider from internally your guys' standpoint will be more of a normal cycle, say, average for the cycle?

    約翰,謝謝你。但是,從內部來看,你們認為什麼樣的週期比較正常,比如說,平均週期?

  • John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Paul. I don't know if it's helpful to get into. There's lots of things that can move that on the asset portfolio, where we are in the schedule. I think we're -- we've even stepped into here just recently giving you the number for the year. We used to just give you the number by quarter.

    是的,保羅。不知道進入之後有沒有幫助。有很多因素可以影響資產組合,這是我們計劃中的事。我想我們——我們最近甚至還來到這裡向你們提供了今年的數字。我們過去只是按季度向您提供數字。

  • So I think if you're okay with it, we might just stick with what we're looking at for this year, and then we'll speak to it as the year progresses.

    因此,我認為,如果您同意的話,我們可能會堅持今年的目標,然後在今年晚些時候再討論。

  • Paul Cheng - Analyst

    Paul Cheng - Analyst

  • Okay. The second question, I want to go back into the margin capture. California actually have done really well. Yes, I mean, we stay and took out renewables, so that improved or that helped the margin, but still is very good. Typically that I think for the butane branding, California doesn't really benefit that much.

    好的。第二個問題,我想回到保證金捕獲問題。加州實際上表現非常好。是的,我的意思是,我們留下來並採用可再生能源,這樣可以提高或幫助提高利潤率,但仍然非常好。通常我認為,對於丁烷品牌來說,加州實際上並沒有受益太多。

  • So trying to understand that, I think Rick mentioned about export and some of that. Is there any one-off item in California. For this quarter, we should be aware? Or will that -- I mean, is there any other factor that you can point us to why that there seems to be performing really well?

    為了理解這一點,我想里克提到了出口和其中的一些內容。加州有任何一次性物品嗎?對於本季度,我們應該注意什麼?或者那 — — 我的意思是,您能指出其他什麼因素,說明為什麼它看起來表現得很好嗎?

  • John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Paul, it's John. I'll start and maybe then turn it over to Rick. I think one of the things we would call out, really, I'll start with Tim and his team and how we ran the facilities in the quarter, strong utilization really positioning us to then turn to Rick and his team to take that production to market across our really competitive value chain.

    保羅,我是約翰。我先開始,然後可能將其交給 Rick。我認為我們要指出的一件事是,首先要從蒂姆和他的團隊開始,談談我們在本季度如何運營設施,強大的利用率確實使我們處於有利地位,然後我們轉向里克和他的團隊,將產品推向市場,覆蓋我們真正具有競爭力的價值鏈。

  • So at a high, high level, I think that's what you're seeing. And maybe I'll turn it over to Rick for any other details.

    所以從高層次來看,我認為這就是你所看到的。也許我會把它交給 Rick 來了解其他細節。

  • Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

    Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, Paul, maybe just to address the export comment. When I referenced our exports earlier, think of that as predominantly US Gulf Coast. It's not that there weren't some exports going out of the West Coast, but they were minimal in terms of our overall portfolio. The only item that I would add to John's commentary is we often talk fully integrated value chain and our advantages in California.

    是的,保羅,也許只是為了解決出口評論。當我之前提到我們的出口時,請認為主要是美國墨西哥灣沿岸。並不是說西海岸沒有出口,但就我們的整體產品組合而言,這些出口量微乎其微。我唯一想補充約翰評論的是,我們經常談論完全整合的價值鏈以及我們在加州的優勢。

  • And in-house, we talk refinery to retail. And we are one of the few out there that takes the value chain all the way to the end consumer. And that is a value driver that I think -- that we believe is showing up and capture that others aren't able to capture. So we see it as a differentiator, Paul.

    在公司內部,我們討論從煉油廠到零售店的問題。我們是少數的能夠將價值鏈延伸至最終消費者的公司之一。我認為,這是一個價值驅動因素——我們相信它正在顯現並抓住其他人無法抓住的東西。因此我們認為這是一個差異化因素,保羅。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

  • Roger Read - Analyst

    Roger Read - Analyst

  • To come back to your comments on the macro and the demand may exceed capacity as we see more closures within the industry. What's your view here looking at '25 in terms of demand as we think about gasoline, jet fuel, and then diesel, particularly we finally got a plus 50 on the ISM manufacturing for this past month?

    回到你對宏觀的評論,隨著我們看到行業內越來越多的企業關閉,需求可能會超過產能。當我們考慮汽油、航空燃料和柴油時,您對 25 年的需求有何看法,特別是上個月 ISM 製造業終於獲得了 50 的正成長?

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Sure, Roger. I'd say, look, you've heard us share our views, really no different. As we look at the long term, we absolutely remain constructive over the long term. We think 2025 is going to be another year of growth in refined product demand, and we see that continuing through the decade.

    是的。當然,羅傑。我想說,看,你已經聽過我們分享我們的觀點了,真的沒有什麼不同。長遠來看,我們絕對會保持長期建設性的態度。我們認為 2025 年將是成品油需求再次成長的一年,我們認為這種趨勢將持續整個十年。

  • As you know, in 2025, there's -- we've got supply coming online, two of which we know we've talked about Dangote, Das Bocas. Clearly, some challenges, particularly in the first quarter here, even in the fourth quarter with first quarter here and even in the fourth quarter with Das Bocas.

    如你所知,到 2025 年,我們將有供應上線,其中兩個我們知道我們已經討論過,分別是 Dangote 和 Das Bocas。顯然,存在一些挑戰,特別是在第一季度,甚至是與第一季相同的第四季度,甚至是與 Das Bocas 相同的第四季度。

  • And then there's probably about 800,000 barrels a day that we think will be coming offline. One of them we know happening in the first quarter, another one happening in the fourth quarter, which probably won't have much impact in 2025.

    我們認為每天大概會有 80 萬桶石油停產。我們知道其中一個發生在第一季度,另一個發生在第四季度,這可能不會對 2025 年產生太大影響。

  • And then there's a few in -- well, I think one in Germany, a couple in Scotland, Europe. And then there's always really what happens with respect to China.

    然後還有一些——嗯,我認為有一個在德國,幾個在蘇格蘭,歐洲。然後總是會發生與中國有關的事情。

  • So back half of the year, when we look at 2025, we think we should see improvement. We should see margins expanding. Frankly, we're beginning to see a little bit of that as seasonal unwind begins to occur. In our system, gasoline year over year has been fairly steady, diesel up slightly.

    因此回顧今年上半年,當我們展望 2025 年時,我們認為我們應該看到改善。我們應該會看到利潤率擴大。坦白說,隨著季節性放鬆,我們開始看到一些這樣的情況。在我們的系統中,汽油價格比去年同期相當穩定,柴油價格略有上漲。

  • And to your point, we've actually seen jet demand growth, which is what you would expect as well. So overall, we remain constructive long term. I think the back half of '25 could look better. China always an interesting dynamic to the extent that's better than we anticipate could be an accelerator.

    正如您所說,我們實際上已經看到了噴射機需求的成長,這也是您所期望的。因此整體而言,我們長期仍保持建設性態度。我認為 25 年的後半段可能會更好。中國始終是一個有趣的動態,比我們預期的更好,可能是個加速器。

  • Obviously, some of the decisions that are being debated here with China would mute that, and we'll have to wait and see what happens there. So I think that's how I would characterize it, Roger.

    顯然,正在與中國討論的一些決定會抑制這種情緒,我們將不得不拭目以待,看看接下來會發生什麼。所以我想這就是我對它的描述,羅傑。

  • Roger Read - Analyst

    Roger Read - Analyst

  • Appreciate that. And then maybe as an unrelated follow-up. Obviously, a lot of things going on with the Trump administration on the tariffs and all. But there's also in any executive orders, a lot of things to rolled back a lot of, let's call it, pro sustainable energy or clean energy as it was advertised. What are some of the key things you're watching on that progress that may or may not be made during 2025?

    非常感謝。然後或許作為不相關的後續行動。顯然,川普政府在關稅等方面發生了很多事情。但是,任何行政命令中也有很多內容要撤銷,我們稱之為支持永續能源或清潔能源,正如它所宣傳的那樣。您關注的 2025 年可能取得或不可能取得的進展的關鍵事項有哪些?

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Roger, here's what I would say. When we look at our sustainability initiatives, you look at Scope 1, Scope 2 and even our Scope 3 absolute, we remain committed to those. And frankly, last year, we actually increased our target because we were making progress particularly on methane as an example.

    是的。羅傑,我想說的是。當我們審視我們的永續發展計畫時,您會看到範圍 1、範圍 2 甚至範圍 3,我們仍然致力於這些。坦白說,去年我們實際上提高了目標,因為我們取得了進展,特別是在甲烷方面。

  • So we'll continue to remain focused on delivering Scope 1, Scope 2. We'll evaluate what opportunities we have as we look at Scope 3.

    因此,我們將繼續專注於實現範圍 1 和範圍 2。當我們研究範圍 3 時,我們會評估我們有哪些機會。

  • The whole concept around renewable diesel, you heard me mention perhaps in my remarks that our focus in the short term is limiting the amount of capital that we're putting to work in renewable diesel, we'll certainly do what we need to, to ensure the sustainability and the reliability of that asset came up to nameplate capacity in the fourth quarter, as we said. And we believe that as we look at 2025, that asset will be profitable.

    關於再生柴油的整個概念,您可能聽到我在我的演講中提到,我們短期內的重點是限制我們在再生柴油上投入的資本量,我們肯定會盡我們所能,確保該資產的可持續性和可靠性在第四季度達到額定產能,正如我們所說的那樣。我們相信,到 2025 年,該資產將實現盈利。

  • But again, as we look at, we'll watch the variables just really in the whole renewable space, that is certainly one that we'll be looking at carefully as well. I'm going to pass to Jim and see if there is anything that Jim feels that I've missed in --

    但是,我們再一次觀察,我們會真正關注整個可再生領域的變量,這當然也是我們會仔細觀察的變數之一。我要轉交給吉姆,看看吉姆是否覺得我遺漏了什麼--

  • James Wilkins - Senior Vice President - Health, Environment, Safety and Security

    James Wilkins - Senior Vice President - Health, Environment, Safety and Security

  • Roger, I agree with what Maryann said. I think we're going to remain steadfast the middle of the fairway on our sustainability goals and metrics and watch some of the variables.

    羅傑,我同意瑪麗安所說的。我認為我們將堅定不移地堅持永續發展目標和指標,並專注於一些變數。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

    傑森·加貝爾曼(Jason Gabelman),TD Cowen。

  • Jason Gabelman - Analyst

    Jason Gabelman - Analyst

  • The first one on the buyback and the ability to generate cash beyond cash from ops at the parent company. I think you're going to be refinancing $750 million of debt at the parent. So should we think about that being available for use towards buybacks? And then any opportunity for buyback -- or sorry, for drop-downs from the parent down to the MLP? Is that still an arrow in your quiver that you could use?

    第一個是關於回購以及從母公司營運中產生除現金以外的現金的能力。我認為你將為母公司再融資 7.5 億美元的債務。那麼我們是否應該考慮將其用於回購?那麼有沒有回購的機會——或者抱歉,從母公司下拉到 MLP 的機會?這還是你箭筒裡的一支箭,你可以使用它嗎?

  • John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Jason, it's John. Yes, you're spot on the cash balance and that maturity, right? That was one that matured in September, we decided to pay it off and mentioned at that time, we'll be looking to refinance that at the right time, right?

    傑森,我是約翰。是的,您清楚現金餘額和到期日,對嗎?那是一筆九月到期的貸款,我們決定將其還清,並在當時提到,我們會在合適的時間尋求再融資,對嗎?

  • So you've got $750 million of cash that's coming back on to the balance sheet. That's available for allocation. I'll let Maryann speak to the drops.

    因此,你有 7.5 億美元現金重新回到資產負債表上。可供分配。我會讓瑪麗安談論這些滴劑。

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, Jason, with respect to the drops, there is a few assets that sit on the MPC side that we believe ultimately belong rightfully so in the midstream business. When we or if we consider these drops, in the past, they have certainly not been a priority for several reasons that you know well.

    是的,傑森,關於下降,有一些屬於 MPC 方面的資產,我們認為最終應該屬於中游業務。當我們考慮這些下降時,在過去,它們肯定不是優先事項,原因有幾個,你們都知道。

  • But if and when we consider these drops, we want to be sure that we're clear these drops would not count, if you will, with respect to our commitment for MPLX to have mid-single-digit growth. This EBITDA is currently in the system. We would make that drop to be sure that the assets are positioned properly in the business.

    但是,如果我們考慮這些下降,我們希望確保我們清楚這些下降不會計算在內,如果你願意的話,這對於我們對 MPLX 實現中等個位數成長的承諾。此 EBITDA 目前已存於系統中。我們做出這項削減是為了確保資產在業務中處於正確的位置。

  • Having said that, that cash on the MPC side, could certainly be used to continue to buy back stock, in particular, when we look at the valuation today versus our long-term opportunity set and the value creation that we think we can generate in MPC, that cash could be put to good use on the MPC side, but would not count.

    話雖如此,MPC 方面的現金當然可以用來繼續回購股票,特別是當我們將今天的估值與我們的長期機會集以及我們認為我們可以在 MPC 中創造的價值進行比較時,這些現金可以在 MPC 方面得到很好的利用,但不會計算在內。

  • We would not do that, it would not count against MPLX's mid-single-digit growth objective because that EBITDA is already in our system. I hope that helps.

    我們不會這樣做,這不會計入 MPLX 的中位數個位數成長目標,因為 EBITDA 已經在我們的系統中。我希望這能有所幫助。

  • Jason Gabelman - Analyst

    Jason Gabelman - Analyst

  • Yes. Got it. Understood. Do you have an estimate for the amount of EBITDA that could potentially be dropped down?

    是的。知道了。明白了。您對 EBITDA 可能下降的金額有何估計?

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Jason, when we -- if and when we do a drop, we'll be sure that we give you good clarity so you understand how not to include that in the growth, but we'll share that with you when the time comes.

    傑森,如果我們確實下降了,我們會確保給你一個清晰的說明,讓你明白如何不將其納入成長中,但我們會在適當的時候與你分享。

  • Jason Gabelman - Analyst

    Jason Gabelman - Analyst

  • All right. Great. And my follow-up is just a quick one. I noticed in the press release, there wasn't a quarter-to-date buyback figure for 1Q '25. I think that's the first time you've excluded that figure in the press release for a handful of quarters, if not two years.

    好的。偉大的。我的後續問題只是簡短的。我注意到新聞稿中沒有公佈 2025 年第一季迄今的回購數據。我認為這是你們第一次在新聞稿中排除幾個季度甚至兩年內的該數字。

  • Do you have that figure handy? And was there a reason that you decided to exclude it this quarter?

    您手邊有這個數字嗎?您決定本季將其排除在外的原因是什麼?

  • John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Jason, it's John. Let me try and answer that for you. And maybe too, it's where you were going a little bit of history. Certainly, if you go back in time, post the Speedway sale, post a significant change in margins, we were returning a significant amount of capital and really wanted to lean in and share with you all what that first month of the quarter looked like.

    傑森,我是約翰。讓我試著回答你這個問題。或許,這也是你要了解一點歷史的地方。當然,如果回顧過去,在 Speedway 出售之後,在利潤率發生重大變化之後,我們就會返還大量資本,並且非常希望能夠與大家分享本季第一個月的情況。

  • As we've approach to a more normalized balance sheet, even as we continue to provide that, you've also heard us say, hey, one month isn't really indicative of what the repurchases might be for the entire quarter. So I think just as we're pivoting now, we decided maybe now is the time that, that number may be isn't as useful as it had been in the past. So hopefully, that you can understand our change in view there.

    隨著我們逐漸接近更標準化的資產負債表,即使我們繼續提供這份資產負債表,您也會聽到我們說,嘿,一個月的數據並不能真正反映出整個季度的回購情況。因此我認為,正如我們現在所轉變的那樣,我們決定也許現在是時候了,這個數字可能不再像過去那麼有用了。所以希望你能理解我們的觀點的改變。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Royall, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的約翰‧羅亞爾 (John Royall)。

  • John Royall - Analyst

    John Royall - Analyst

  • So my first question is on 2024 MPC level CapEx. The $1.52 billion for '24 came in a bit above the original $1.25 billion guide, and it looks in particular like a big 4Q. I was just hoping you could help us bridge the difference between the guide from a year ago and where you ended up?

    所以我的第一個問題是關於 2024 年 MPC 級別的資本支出。24 年的 15.2 億美元略高於最初 12.5 億美元的預期,而且看起來尤其像是第四季的一個大數字。我只是希望您能幫助我們彌合一年前指南和您最終得出的結論之間的差異?

  • John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    John Quaid - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • John, it's John. Let me try and give you a little bit more color there. Really, I think what we saw were a couple of things. And I'll start with -- you've heard Rick talk about how we're going to market in our fully integrated value chain. And frankly, we saw some really strong opportunities to invest some capital to drive cash flow in the marketing side of our business.

    約翰,我是約翰。讓我嘗試給你更多詳細資訊。確實,我認為我們看到了幾件事。首先,您已經聽過里克談論我們如何在完全整合的價值鏈中進行行銷。坦白說,我們看到了一些非常好的機會,可以透過投資一些資本來推動我們業務行銷的現金流。

  • That was probably the majority -- or a larger portion of what drove that. But we also had some opportunities across the refining base where we saw some projects that we could put money to. So I'd just give you that as some color where again, we saw those opportunities and wanted to take advantage of them as we continue to look to drive cash flow growth of the Refining and Marketing business.

    這可能是造成這現象的大多數原因,或者說是更大一部分原因。但我們在煉油基地也看到了一些機會,我們看到了一些可以投資的項目。因此,我只是想向您介紹一下,我們看到了這些機會,並希望利用它們,因為我們將繼續尋求推動煉油和行銷業務的現金流成長。

  • John Royall - Analyst

    John Royall - Analyst

  • Okay. And then my next question is on Renewable Diesel margins. There's a lot of uncertainty in the regulatory environment right now. I was just hoping for your thoughts on R&D margins early in 2025 and how you think the 45Z could ultimately play out?

    好的。我的下一個問題是關於再生柴油的利潤。目前監理環境存在許多不確定性。我只是想知道您對 2025 年初研發利潤的看法,以及您認為 45Z 最終會如何發展?

  • Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

    Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. John, this is Rick. So with Martinez fully online, as we stated earlier, we continue to expect EBITDA contribution going forward. As you saw in the release, we were positive $28 million in fourth quarter. So we really have a good stable environment, and we have a great team executing our feedstocks and our product distribution.

    是的。約翰,這是瑞克。因此,正如我們之前所說,隨著馬丁內斯完全上線,我們將繼續期待未來的 EBITDA 貢獻。正如您在新聞稿中看到的,我們第四季的利潤為 2800 萬美元。因此,我們確實擁有一個良好且穩定的環境,我們擁有一支優秀的團隊來執行我們的原料和產品分銷。

  • With that being said, as you said, there remains a lot of uncertainty in this space, and it continues to evolve, right? When you think of our new administration, how does 45Z get implemented or does it and at what pace? And then when you have the BTC expiry.

    話雖如此,正如您所說,這個領域仍然存在著許多不確定性,而且還在繼續發展,對嗎?當您想到我們的新政府時,45Z 將如何實施,或者它將以什麼樣的速度實施?然後當你有 BTC 到期時。

  • I would tell you, I would not make a prediction, but here's what I would say. We will control what we can control, and from a feedstock optimization perspective, we're procuring advantaged feedstocks with low CIs and then placing them as you would certainly expect us to in the highest-margin market as possible.

    我想告訴你,我不會做出預測,但這就是我要說的。我們將控制我們能夠控制的,從原料優化的角度來看,我們正在採購具有低 CI 的優勢原料,然後將它們放置在盡可能利潤率最高的市場中,正如您所期望的那樣。

  • So won't pretend to say we have a crystal ball in the future. I think we'll watch this closely, but we feel very good about our asset base and our execution.

    所以不要假裝說我們擁有未來的水晶球。我想我們會密切關注這一點,但我們對我們的資產基礎和執行力感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Can you talk about how much LPG export currently exists within your system, just off of your refining assets in the Gulf Coast and maybe the West Coast. And following the FID of the NGL infrastructure projects and MPC's role in marketing those LPGs, what economic uplift would you expect just to bring to MPC either in terms of cash or EBITDA?

    您能否談談目前貴公司的液化石油氣出口量是多少,僅依靠墨西哥灣沿岸和西海岸的煉油資產?在 NGL 基礎設施專案最終投資決定和 MPC 在 LPG 行銷中發揮的作用之後,您預計這將為 MPC 帶來什麼樣的現金或 EBITDA 方面的經濟提升?

  • Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

    Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Theresa, it's Rick. Thank you for the question. So when we look at our current footprint, what I'll do, without giving you specific numbers is tell you that our footprint and our ability to export once the dock is fully commissioned and we're up and running will be significant.

    特蕾莎,我是瑞克。感謝您的提問。因此,當我們審視我們目前的足跡時,我會告訴您,雖然不會給您具體的數字,但一旦碼頭完全投入使用並開始運營,我們的足跡和出口能力將是巨大的。

  • We will attack global buyers, and we will go to market in a diversified approach. And what I mean by that is, is we'll go turn, we'll go spot a percentage term, percentage spot, a percentage FOB versus delivered.

    我們將攻擊全球買家,以多元化的方式進入市場。我的意思是,我們會進行轉變,我們會發現一個百分比術語,百分比現貨,一個離岸價與交貨價的百分比。

  • And then from an EBITDA perspective, we have a variety of ranges. It depends on what the market is at that point in time, but we are bullish in this environment with the Chinese PDH units in the global worldwide demand. I would say we have a very optimistic view forward.

    然後從 EBITDA 角度來看,我們有多種範圍。這取決於當時的市場狀況,但我們對中國PDH裝置在全球需求中的環境持樂觀態度。我想說我們對未來持非常樂觀的看法。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Got it. And as a quick follow-up, are you -- is MPC also marketing Oneok portion of the terminal facility volumes coming out of the terminal facility? Or is it just MPLX's 50% interest?

    知道了。順便問一下,MPC 是否也在行銷來自終端設施的 Oneok 部分終端設施流量?還是僅僅是 MPLX 的 50% 權益?

  • Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

    Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

  • MPC is just marketing the 50% of the dock. Oneok will be marketing their own barrels.

    MPC 僅銷售 50% 的碼頭。Oneok 將銷售他們自己的酒桶。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Blair, Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

    馬修布萊爾、都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特。

  • Matthew Blair - Analyst

    Matthew Blair - Analyst

  • Congrats on the strong results. You mentioned record product exports. And we are seeing things like industrial production improve and in several Latin American countries with, I guess, the exception of Mexico.

    恭喜您取得的優異成績。您提到了創紀錄的產品出口。我們看到工業生產情況正在改善,拉丁美洲的幾個國家(我想墨西哥除外)都是如此。

  • My question is, could you contrast demand trends in the US versus your overseas market? And if you have any a split between gasoline and diesel, that would be helpful, too.

    我的問題是,您能比較一下美國和海外市場的需求趨勢嗎?如果您對汽油和柴油有任何區分的話,這也會很有幫助。

  • Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

    Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, Matt. So what I would tell you is where we're seeing significant demand signals is all things Latin America and Europe. Those are the biggest signals we're seeing. Demand growth is more robust than we have seen in a while. And then when you look at where we are from a split perspective, gas versus diesel, I will tell you, diesel has been pretty steady, but we are seeing a significant uplift in gas export demand.

    是的,馬特。所以我想告訴你的是,我們看到的顯著需求訊號是拉丁美洲和歐洲的所有事物。這些是我們看到的最強烈的訊號。需求成長比我們先前看到的更為強勁。然後,當您從天然氣和柴油的細分角度來觀察我們所處的位置時,我會告訴您,柴油一直非常穩定,但我們看到天然氣出口需求顯著提升。

  • Matthew Blair - Analyst

    Matthew Blair - Analyst

  • Sounds good. And then turning back to the Renewable Diesel segment. With the 45Z coming in, does this change anything in regards to your RD feedstocks? And I guess, in particular, are you looking to run less vegetable oils going forward? And do you run any imported EUCO? And if so, would you scale that back going forward?

    聽起來不錯。然後回到再生柴油領域。隨著 45Z 的推出,這會對您的研發原料產生什麼改變嗎?我想,您是否希望將來減少使用植物油?你們有經營任何進口的 EUCO 嗎?如果是的話,您會在未來縮減這一規模嗎?

  • Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

    Rick Hessling - Chief Commercial Officer

  • So great question. I would tell you, so what we're looking to do is maximize low CI stocks, feedstocks. And with that, that plays right into the 45Z on what would be the most maximum feedstock we could run and get credit for and apply towards the 45Z. So I think that's the best way to share that, Matt.

    這個問題問得真好。我會告訴你,我們想要做的是最大限度地利用低 CI 庫存和原料。這樣,我們就可以利用 45Z 來運行最大原料,並獲得信用並應用於 45Z。所以我認為這是分享這一點的最好方式,馬特。

  • Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Maryann Mannen - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Matt, it's Maryann. Just maybe one other comment, if I could. When we think about Martinez as well. As I mentioned earlier, we brought the asset to full nameplate capacity in the fourth quarter, that's 48,000 a day. We share that now with Neste, one of the advantages of being at full nameplate is our ability to operate the PTU.

    馬特,我是瑪麗安。如果可以的話,我還有另一則評論。當我們也想到馬丁內斯。正如我之前提到的,我們在第四季將資產的產能達到了最大限度,也就是每天 48,000 噸。我們與 Neste 分享此訊息,採用完整銘牌的優勢之一是我們能夠操作 PTU。

  • And part of the strategic rationale with our developing this long-term relationship with Neste, in particular for Martinez, was to be able to optimize the feedstock. And so we think that will be a value driver as well into 2025 as we're now able to look at -- given the amount of volume that's in place, but be able to look at where those opportunities exist through the commercial lens in addition to the incentives that are obviously still critical for profitability. Hope that addresses your question, Matt.

    我們與 Neste 建立長期合作關係的策略性原因之一,特別是對 Martinez 而言,是為了能夠優化原料。因此,我們認為這將成為 2025 年的價值驅動因素,因為我們現在能夠看到——考慮到現有的交易量,但除了顯然對盈利能力至關重要的激勵措施之外,還能夠透過商業視角來看待這些機會存在的位置。希望這能回答你的問題,馬特。

  • Kristina Kazarian - Vice President - Finance and Investor Relations

    Kristina Kazarian - Vice President - Finance and Investor Relations

  • All right. With that, thank you for your interest in Marathon Petroleum Corporation. Should you have more questions or want clarification on topics discussed this morning, please contact us, and our team will be available to take your calls. Thank you for joining us today.

    好的。最後,感謝您對馬拉松石油公司的關注。如果您有更多問題或想澄清今天上午討論的主題,請聯絡我們,我們的團隊將隨時接聽您的電話。感謝您今天加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

    今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。