奧馳亞 (MO) 2014 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2014 second-quarter earnings conference call.

Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session.

(Operator Instructions).

I would now like to turn the call over to Miss Sarah Knakmuhs, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services.

Please go ahead, ma'am.

Good morning and thank you for joining us.

We are here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's Chairman and CEO, and Howard Willard, Altria's CFO, to talk about Altria's 2014 business results for the second quarter and the first half.

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we are comparing results to the same period in 2013.

Earlier today, we issued a press release regarding our second-quarter and first-half results.

For a detailed review of Altria's business results, please review the earnings release on our website at altria.com.

Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results.

Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

Altria reports its financial results in accordance with US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis, which excludes items that affect the comparability of reported results.

Descriptions of these measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and are available on our website.

Now I will turn the call over to Marty.

Thanks, Sarah.

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call.

In the first half of 2014, Altria delivered adjusted, diluted EPS growth of 5.2% and we made good progress against our full year plans.

Our Company's leading premium brands and the strength of our diverse business model continue to deliver value for shareholders.

Here are the highlights for the second quarter and first half of 2014.

The smokeable product segment delivered adjusted operating companies' income growth of 3.6% in the second quarter and 4.9% in the first half while maintaining modest retail share growth on Marlboro.

In the second quarter, Marlboro achieved excellent retail share of 44 points, up 0.3 from last year.

For the first half, Marlboro's share grew 0.1 to 43.8 share points.

Adjusted operating companies' income margins also increased both in the quarter and the first half, with pricing as a key driver.

So year to date, the smokeable product segments performance has been strong.

In smokeless, in the first half of 2014, USSTC focused on strengthening the Skoal value equation in part by better managing price caps on Skoal Classic.

On a sequential basis, Skoal's retail share was unchanged versus the first quarter.

Copenhagen and Skoal delivered second-quarter retail share of 51.1 share points, up 0.4 from last year, and the highest combined share since we acquired UST.

For the first half, Copenhagen and Skoal delivered combined retail share of 51 points, an increase of 0.3.

Operating company's income grew 5.6% in the second quarter and 6.5% in the first half while operating company's income margins expanded to 66.6% and 64.5%, respectively.

Our smokeless business continues to perform well in the competitive environment in line with its strategies.

Turning to innovative products, Nu Mark began a national expansion of MarkTen e-vapor products in June in the western half of the US.

MarkTen achieved strong distribution in over 60,000 stores.

These stores account for more than 70% of cigarette industry volume in the Western US where MarkTen is distributed.

Nu Mark is also making good progress, integrating Green Smoke into its business, starting with the well-established supply chain that Green Smoke adds to Nu Mark.

Altria continued to reward shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

Altria paid shareholders almost $1 billion in dividends in the quarter and nearly $2 billion in the first half.

As of July 18, our annualized dividend yield of 4.6% surpassed the S&P 500 yield of 2% and the 10-year treasury yield of 2.5%.

We expect to return a target payout of 80% of adjusted diluted EPS in the form of dividends.

In the second quarter, Altria repurchased $132 million of its common stock at an average price of $40.72.

We expect to complete our current $1 billion share repurchase program by the end of the third quarter of 2014.

Further, Altria's Board recently authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value.

We expect to complete this new program by the end of 2015.

Timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors.

And, of course, dividends and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of our Board.

Based on our results so far and expectations for the remainder of 2014, we are narrowing guidance for both adjusted and reported diluted EPS.

We now expect to deliver adjusted diluted EPS growth of 7% to 9% in a range of $2.54 to $2.59 off an adjusted base of $2.38 per share in 2013.

We also expect to achieve full year reported diluted EPS in the range of $2.54 to $2.59.

We expect stronger adjusted diluted EPS growth in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter, driven by various factors including lower fourth-quarter costs in the smokeable product segment due to the end of the quota buyout payments and a significantly lower fourth-quarter effective tax rate compared to the year-ago period resulting from our 2013 debt tender offer.

So in all, we are pleased with the progress we are making against our strategies and financial goals and the momentum we are carrying into the second half of the year.

Howard will now provide additional details on the quarter and the first six months.

Thank you, Marty.

Good morning, everyone.

Altria grew second-quarter adjusted diluted EPS by 4.8%, primarily driven by higher adjusted operating companies' income in the smokeable and smokeless product segments, lower interest and other debt expense, and fewer shares outstanding.

These factors were partially offset by the investments we are making in innovative products and comparatively lower operating companies' income in the financial services business.

As Marty mentioned, the smokeable products segments adjusted operating companies' income grew 3.6% to $1.8 billion in the second quarter and 4.9%To $3.3 billion in the first half.

In both periods, higher pricing was the driver, partially offset by lower cigarettes shipment volume.

As we anticipated in the second quarter, the trade reduced inventory levels they built during the first quarter.

After adjusting for trade inventory fluctuation and other factors, PM USA estimates that its second quarter and first-half cigarette shipment volume declined approximately 4%, and that industry volume declined approximately 4.5% for both periods.

PM USA grew total retail share by 0.3 to 51 share points in the second quarter and 0.2 to 50.8 share points in the first half of 2014.

In addition to Marlboro's strong retail share, L&M continued to grow retail share despite declines in the industry's discount share.

John Middleton also contributed to our solid first-half smokeable segment results.

Middleton cigars shipment volume increased 11.1% in the second quarter and 6% for the first six months, supported by Black & Mild in the tip segment and the expansion of Royal Comfort in the untipped segment.

While the competitive environment remains challenging, Black & Mild's retail share was essentially flat for the first half of the year.

In smokeless, operating companies' income increased 5.6% to $285 million in the second quarter and 6.5% to $524 million for the first half of 2014.

Through the second quarter, USSTC and PM USA achieved a 55.1 share of the category, benefiting in part by continued momentum on Copenhagen Long Cut Wintergreen.

Changes to Skoal's promotional strategy resulted in trade inventory shifts that negatively affected smokeless shipment volume in the first half of the year.

After adjusting for trade inventory changes in calendar differences, USSTC and PM USA estimate that their smokeless product shipment volume grew 3.5% in both the second quarter and the first half.

And the smokeless category volume grew approximately 4.5% over the past 12 months.

In the wine segment, operating companies' income was up 12% in the second quarter and 11.1% for the first-half 2014.

Shipments increased 1.9% in the quarter and 1.5% in the first half.

In both the quarter and the half, strong volume performance by Chateau Ste.

Michelle and 14 Hands was mostly offset by lower shipments of Columbia Crest and other brands.

That wraps up our operating results.

Marty and I will now take your questions.

While the calls are being compiled, let me cover a few second-quarter housekeeping items.

Marlboro's price gap versus the lowest effective price cigarette was 33%.

Marlboro's net pack price was $5.93, up $0.15 from the second quarter of 2013.

The lowest effective price cigarette was $4.47, up $0.17 from the second quarter of 2013.

The cigarette discount segments retail share was 24.8%, down from 25.2% in the second quarter of 2013.

The estimated weighted average cigarette state excise tax at the end of the second quarter was $1.48 per pack, up $0.06 from the end of the second quarter of 2013.

Wholesale inventory changes are one factor PM USA uses to estimate adjusted PM USA and industry volumes.

PM USA estimates that for 2014, wholesale inventories were approximately 2.1 billion units at the end of the second quarter and 2.5 billion units at the end of the first quarter.

Last year PM USA's wholesale inventories were estimated to be approximately 2.2 billion units at the end of the second quarter and 2.3 billion units at the end of the first quarter.

PM USA estimates that for 2014, cigarette industry wholesale inventory levels were 4.8 billion units at the end of the second quarter and 5.5 billion units at the end of the first quarter.

Last year, we estimate that wholesale inventory levels were 5.6 billion units at the end of both the second and first quarter.

Copenhagen's price gap versus the leading discount brand was 31%.

Copenhagen's retail price was $4.10, up $0.06 from the second quarter of 2013.

The price of the leading discount brand was $3.12, up $0.14 from the second-quarter 2013.

CapEx was $33 million and ongoing depreciation and amortization was $50 million.

For the first half, CapEx was $60 million and ongoing depreciation and amortization was $100 million.

Operator, do we have any questions?

(Operator Instructions).

Michael Lavery, CLSA.

Good morning.

I wanted to actually talk about a hypothetical a little bit and just in terms of looking at SAP and if somebody were interested in trying to buy that asset.

Can you help us understand a couple of things?

One, first in the mechanics.

Is it right to assume that every shareholder, yourself included, would be treated the same so that for instance you couldn't get shares and somebody [else] cash?

And then especially if a cash deal is the proposal, how do you think about what would make it interesting for you in terms of -- do you just look at accretion, does it -- measure economic profit differences or how do you think about the valuation creation or potentially dilution that comes with that?

Sure.

This is Howard.

I think any acquisition is going to be governed by UK takeover law which has a number of protections in place to try and ensure that shareholders are treated fairly.

And so, I think at the highest level that would certainly govern the transaction.

I think with regard to a cash deal, I think we would evaluate that the way we would any potential transaction for SAB.

And we would evaluate it through the eyes of the Altria shareholder and determine whether or not we thought that provided significant enough increment of value to warrant giving up the strong performance that we have gotten on an ongoing basis from SABMiller.

And I think that we would vote our shares based on that view.

Okay.

That is helpful, thanks.

And then one last question, smokeless -- at least I think I do it on the servings equivalent which is loose, but it is around 7% of your volumes and 14% of EBIT.

Certainly those margins are fantastic.

E-cigarettes are sort of getting all the attention on the margins these days, but with two very different margin profiles in those businesses.

And, of course, different potential long-term opportunities.

How do you think about allocating resources or are we are making those investments in terms of if those compete for resources with each other at all?

Yes, that is a good question.

We allocate resources obviously based on the core businesses that we have today.

You mentioned one, which is smokeless.

Of course, we have smokeable and wine and we obviously have strength in our core businesses.

They are terrific businesses with leading positions, great shares, great margins and so forth and so on.

With respect to innovative products, the way that we are going about that, Michael, is to have a disciplined approach to innovating our way forward.

You saw that, for example, about the way we handle test markets in Indiana and Arizona before we determined to do a national launch.

So it is a little early, as everyone keeps saying, to know about margins in the e-vapor business, but we are focused on the adult tobacco consumer and if they are interested in these kind of innovative products, we want to make sure we are developing positions there.

And in any category which emerges, we intend to be the market leader.

That's great.

Thanks very much.

Judy Hong, Goldman Sachs.

Good morning, everyone.

Marty, obviously we have the major announcement last week which, if the deal does go through, potentially changes the competitive landscape with two of your competitors getting bigger and obviously Imperial getting bigger in the US market as well.

So wanted to get your thoughts on what you think the competitive implications might be and how you are thinking about your strategy going forward in maybe a different competitive environment.

Thank you for your question.

As I'm sure you can understand, I am not going to comment on a transaction that has been proposed by others.

I think the questions there are best directed to them.

But I can tell you that at Altria we are the market leader today.

We would be the market leader after any transaction has been proposed.

We are really focused on maintaining our market leadership.

That is what we've told our organization and that is how we are thinking about it.

Okay.

That's fair.

And then maybe in terms of the cigarette industry trends, Marty.

I guess this year the industry decline -- declining of 4.5% is probably a little bit worse than what we have seen and then maybe the pricing at the same time, though, is getting better.

So is that how you characterize the environment, maybe the overall volume is a little bit softer, but you are -- the industry is getting actually pretty healthy pricing and the competitive dynamics are a little bit more rational and that is the balance that we are seeing at this point?

Yes, so let's talk about those in turn.

Good questions, both.

The volume, our estimate, of course, is 4.5.

I would counsel folks not to overread one estimate in one quarter.

If you go back and you look at the historical line rates, say for the last three years, actually you see an average rate over that period of about 3.5%.

And it has been as high as 4. It has been as low as 3. So they bounce around a little bit which is why we always say and believe that we should read them over time.

So it is higher at 4 or 5, but I wouldn't overread, again, one estimate.

Certainly, PM USA had very nice pricing realization.

In fact it is having quite a strong first half.

Its income is up nearly 5%.

Its margin is growing, price realization is strong.

So I would tell you that at least from our perspective, I think what PM USA is doing is spot-on strategy.

We are trying to maximize the income.

We are trying to keep modest share momentum on Marlboro, and I think that the dials that they have been moving at PM USA in the first half have really worked very, very well.

Okay.

And lastly, Howard, just in terms of your guidance change, the low end's coming up by $0.02.

What is driving that change?

I think probably the biggest driver of that is the performance we have had in the first half.

We feel like we have had a good performance in the first half.

Our strategies have been progressing quite nicely and, frankly, the risk of anything upsetting those strategies in the first half has kind of passed now and we feel like we are in a position to narrow the range that we think we can hit for the year.

Got it.

Okay, thank you.

Owen Bennett, Nomura.

Hello, Owen, are you there?

It seems that line has disconnected.

David Adelman, Morgan Stanley.

Hello, David, are you there?

Operator, could we check our connections please to make sure people are in the queue?

Vivien Azer, Cowen & Company.

Good morning.

My first question has to do with Marlboro.

Clearly the share momentum is good with share gains accelerating sequentially in to the second quarter.

I know you guys don't comment on specific lines of the Marlboro brand family that drive outside performance, but if you could offer any color at all in terms of the share gains, that would be helpful.

You're right, Vivian, we don't offer specific insight into lines of the Marlboro business.

But, sure, I think that what you see is that the Marlboro franchise overall is performing very well.

Since we put in the Marlboro architecture, and in particular with the new platform of Marlboro Black, which has been quite successful.

What you see is that Marlboro really has continued to perform very well.

I think that speaks to the strength of the architecture, to big brand and we have now opened it up, I think, to the possibilities that it has in terms of marketing slightly different lead to different segments within the franchise, attracting competitive smokers while all the time, all the time being faithful to Marlboro's positioning.

And I think that is what we are seeing play out in the marketplace.

Fair enough.

Very early days on MarkTen to be sure, but any kind of initial color that you would like to offer in the first month of the national expansion?

Well, we are pretty encouraged.

It is early, but we have achieved strong distribution.

It is now in 60,000 stores which is quite a lot in a short period of time.

It has been enthusiastically received by the trade, Vivian.

And as you know we have a lot of confidence in that product.

So we are very, very pleased to be able to roll this out nationally and we will be moving eastward as the year goes on.

But we are off to a good start, is what I would say.

Okay.

Fair enough.

And last thing, I know you guys weren't a party to the lawsuit against TPSAC and the resolution that was announced yesterday.

But do you have any comment on how you think that might impact the FDA's view of menthol and the science as they publish their report?

I haven't read it yet.

I just saw the press reports, but I would say that the press reports are consistent with the position that our regulated companies took with the FDA really for the last four years.

Our position was the composition of the TPSAC was flawed by appointment of people that had conflicts of interest.

We thought it was inconsistent with the statute and we have been calling on FDA, as you know, if you look at the filings that are available on our website, consistently, to try to correct that.

So I am sure that we are trying to be a constructive partner at FDA, but it is important for the integrity of this system that everybody play by the rules.

So I am sure FDA is assessing what it will do and I haven't seen anything from them yet this morning.

Fair enough.

Thank you very much.

Bonnie Herzog, Wells Fargo.

Good morning.

I have a follow-on question on MarkTen.

So you mentioned you have distribution over 60,000 retail points since you began the national rollout.

So how quickly do you anticipate getting to full distribution?

And then it seems like the focus right now is expanding the distribution.

So I would like to hear how big of a priority technology and innovation are for you.

Yes.

Good question.

So our plan as we described previously is to have a rolling launch.

We started that in June in the 25 states in the western part of the country.

Obviously, as you are building a new brand and you are building capacity, you want to roll this out over time.

You want to be cognizant of having product in the store so that people can get it, no out of stocks and the like.

So we will be rolling eastward as we go through the summer and into the fall and that is how we are thinking about the distribution.

Distribution is important, but it is not the only thing and you have touched on a couple of others obviously.

I continue to be very encouraged by the product development pipeline I see out of Nu Mark and the e-vapor space.

So as everyone knows, I know, and many have written, that the consumer continues to move around unsurprisingly in a new category about what they want out of these products.

So we are hard at divining those consumer insights and having products available for them.

So while we are excited about MarkTen, I don't think it is the last thing that anyone should expect either from us or others.

Okay, that is helpful and then I had a quick question on your SG&A expense in the quarter.

It was up 21% year over year.

It was almost 14% of sales.

So I guess I am assuming this is primarily due to the roll out of MarkTen, but could you talk about any other potential factors for this being high?

And then really how we should think about your SG&A going forward?

I think certainly one of the drivers in the quarter was, as you pointed out, the rollout of MarkTen.

Given that this was the quarter that we did the Western launch that was an impact.

But I would also say, too, that historically you have seen some movement quarter to quarter in the amount of SG&A expense and we tend to budget that on a full year basis.

So, I think that you'll get a better idea of the trend by looking at that on the full-year basis.

And I think, while certainly, the innovative products space is going to have an impact, we continue to have quite a focus on reducing costs in the core and you should continue to see us focus quite sharply on that.

But that is going to probably reveal itself on a longer-term basis looking at annual trends.

Okay and then if I may, I had one final question, a little bit of a follow-up.

And given the expected changing industry dynamics, maybe you could remind us of your priority in terms of how you are going to continue to strike the optimal balance between growing market share and defending your turf while trying to maximize profitability.

Well, again, I am not going to comment with regard to any proposed transactions.

But I will tell you, I guess, two things.

One is strategy in the smokeable segment remains the same.

We are trying to maximize income while making sure we have modest momentum on Marlboro.

That has been the winning strategy for decades and that is not going to change.

The other thing I just would observe is that change is constant in business and we at Altria prepare for all scenarios.

I think that is the way to think about it.

Which is, we are prepared to compete today and we are prepared to compete tomorrow.

All right.

Thank you for that.

Chris Growe, Stifel.

Good morning.

I had two questions for you, if I could.

I wanted to get a little better sense around the fourth-quarter expectations.

I think we have known all along it is going to be a pretty strong quarter for you.

With the MSA cost reductions and as well as the tax rate decline year-over-year.

I don't know if maybe, Howard, can give a little more color on the tax rate decline.

Is that still expected to be down?

I think you used the word significant in the press release.

I want to get maybe a little more flavor for how much it could be.

But then just understand your thoughts on MSA cost savings and any change in your view, given the competitive conditions in that category.

It looks like a lot of that could come to the bottom line.

Sure.

I will ask Howard to comment on that for you, Chris.

Sure.

I think we have communicated that our full-year tax rate is expected to be about 35%.

And if you compare that to the back half of last year, you see that that's significantly lower.

And in the fourth quarter, I think, last year's tax rate was a little in excess of 37%.

So that gives you an idea going from 37% to 35%, that is a pretty significant impact.

And then with regard to the FETRA payments discontinuing in the fourth quarter, on an annual basis, our FETRA payments have been about $400 million.

So on a quarter's impact, that would be estimated to be about $100 million.

Okay.

And if I could ask a question and thanks in advance for the inventory information you gave today.

It was very good.

I want to get a sense of where you think the -- your inventory levels are and perhaps for the category are currently, just a base case, based on the numbers you have given.

So in that they are down a lot year-over-year in the second quarter for the industry, is that considered a low level or is that a level that you think is pretty normalized going forward?

I would say at the end of the second quarter.

The one thing to remember always is that they tend to wash themselves out over the year, Chris.

So they do go in and out a little bit for the quarter.

But at least for PM USA, the inventory levels tend to wash themselves out over the year.

And the other thing to understand is as industry cigarette volume does come down over time, you would expect for wholesale inventories to come down with them, but I don't think there's anything particular to call out about ending inventories in the second quarter.

Okay.

Thank you for the time.

David Adelman, Morgan Stanley.

Good morning.

A couple of quick things for me.

First, out of curiosity, given the prospect of real competitive change amongst your competitors in the US cigarette market, going into the prospect of that transaction closing, or those transactions closing and the subsequent aftermath.

Are there particular strategies to try to be opportunistic?

Could there be some disruption that you have already planned for or even starting to implement?

I guess what I would say, David, is what I said once or twice already this morning is that I am not going to comment on the transaction that has been proposed by others.

What we do at Altria is we focus on our business.

We are the market leader today.

We have the leading positions, the leading brands, I think, superior infrastructure.

I would expect for all of that to obtain.

It is true that the competitive environment changes and you take that into account (technical difficulty) when you said strategy.

And it will be unsurprising to you to know that Altria has examined lots of scenarios over time to examine how best we might compete.

So all of that work has been done.

But I think it is both premature and inappropriate for me to say what those might be.

Okay.

Second question.

If Lorillard and rentals do combine as planned and are successful in achieving the cost synergy that they envision, that combined company would have per pack controllable costs that are considerably lower than where PM USA's per pack costs are today.

That company would be smaller than you are and it would have a more diverse brand portfolio than you currently have.

And I am curious, if they are successful in achieving that, would that cause you to take a fresh look at your overall cost structure?

Do you think that that would indicate that there are further opportunities to make sizable cost reductions at PM USA?

David, I admire your persistence and I am sure you will appreciate my answer, which is I am not going to comment on a transaction by others.

But I would say this.

I would say this, we look at our costs all the time.

And you have seen where PM USA is in terms of its controllable cost and I don't think anybody should have reason to think that we won't continue to have that kind of focus on controlling our cost.

It is part of the algorithm for growth.

Okay.

And then, lastly, a question about the -- with -- during this quarter the Price verdict was reinstated.

And I am curious as a result of that, was there any change in the policy or the timing and the magnitude of intercompany cash, cash flows from PM USA to Altria?

Yes, David, I really don't think it had any impact.

We continue to have a strategy to address the reinstatement of that verdict and we have been managing our businesses much the way we have over the last several quarters.

Okay.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions).

Michael Felberbaum, Associated Press.

I am curious as far as your MarkTen e-vapor products go.

How do you see Altria's ability to become a market leader in that category when the Company is the last of the majors to enter the category on a national level?

And what differentiates your product that will help that growth?

I would say the following.

One is it is very important to remember that the e-vapor category is just really beginning.

It is emerging.

It is very early days.

There's very little brand equity that has been built by anyone.

The products continue to change over time.

So I think the idea that the category is somehow fully developed and we are late to the game is not the right way to look at it in our view.

I would say the second thing that gives us confidence in our ability to move to market leadership in the e-vapor category is the fact that we are the market leader in every category in which we compete virtually.

So whether it is cigarettes or smokeless or our wonderful wine company, what we have done is we have built terrific brands with superior products and satisfied adults in a way that allow us to build our businesses.

So that is how we are thinking about it.

This is the business we were in, these are the consumers that we set out to satisfy and if consumers are interested in e-vapor products, we want to be the best at it.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions).

Thank you.

At this time I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs for closing remarks.

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call this morning.

If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.

Thank you.

This does conclude today's conference.

You may now disconnect.