奧馳亞 (MO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

So good morning, and thank you for joining us.

早安，感謝您加入我們。

This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's fourth-quarter and full-year business results.

今天上午，奧馳亞集團執行長比利吉福德 (Billy Gifford)；我們的財務長 Sal Mancuso 將討論奧馳亞第四季和全年的營運表現。

Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，介紹了我們的結果。

The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com.

新聞稿、簡報、季度指標和我們最新的企業責任報告均可在 altria.com 上找到。

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2023.

在今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，我們都將結果與 2023 年同期進行比較。

Our remarks contain forward-looking statements, including projections of future results.

我們的評論包含前瞻性陳述，包括對未來結果的預測。

Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

請查看今天收益報告末尾的前瞻性和警告聲明部分，以了解可能導致實際結果與預測有重大差異的各種因素。

Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of our Board of Directors.

未來的股利支付和股票回購仍由董事會決定。

We report our financial results in accordance with US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

我們根據美國公認會計原則報告財務結果。

Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis.

今天的電話會議將包含報告和調整後的各種營運結果。

Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results.

調整後的結果不包括影響與報告結果比較的特殊項目。

Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com.

這些非 GAAP 財務指標的描述以及與最可比較 GAAP 財務指標的對帳均包含在今天的收益報告中和我們的網站 altria.com 上。

Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older.

最後，今天的演講中所有提及菸草消費者或特定菸草類別或細分市場的消費者均指 21 歲或以上的現有成年菸草消費者。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給比利。

Thanks, Mac.

謝謝，麥克。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. 2024 was another pivotal year for Altria, headlined by meaningful progress toward our vision, strong financial results, and significant cash returns to our shareholders.

早安，感謝您加入我們。 2024 年對奧馳亞來說又是關鍵的一年，這一年我們在願景方面取得了重大進展，取得了強勁的財務業績，並為股東帶來了豐厚的現金回報。

Our company's leading brands and talented teams enabled our core tobacco businesses to deliver solid income growth and margin expansion while we strategically invested in our future.

我們公司的領先品牌和優秀團隊使我們的核心菸草業務實現了穩健的收入成長和利潤擴大，同時我們對未來進行了策略性投資。

For the full year, we grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by 3.4% and continued our long history of rewarding shareholders with over $10.2 billion in dividends and share repurchases.

全年而言，我們的調整後每股攤薄收益成長了 3.4%，並延續了我們長期以來回報股東的傳統，以超過 102 億美元的股息和股票回購回報股東。

As the year progressed, our innovative smoke-free products, NJOY and on!, demonstrated encouraging performance through volume and share growth in their respective categories.

隨著時間的推移，我們的創新無菸產品 NJOY 和 on! 在各自類別中的銷售和份額均有所增長，表現令人鼓舞。

And we hit meaningful milestones that helped solidify our smoke-free portfolio and position us for sustained success in the US nicotine space including: NJOY receiving the first and only marketing granted orders from the FDA for menthol e-vapor products; submitting PMTA applications to the FDA and for next-generation NJOY and on!

我們達到了有意義的里程碑，這些里程碑幫助我們鞏固了無菸產品組合，並使我們在美國尼古丁領域取得持續成功，包括：NJOY 獲得 FDA 第一個也是唯一一個薄荷醇電子蒸氣產品行銷授權訂單；向 FDA 提交 PMTA 申請以及下一代 NJOY 等等！

products; continuing preparations to commercialize Ploom through our joint venture with JT; and advocating for a responsible and well-regulated marketplace, including stepped-up enforcement against illicit market activity.

產品;繼續準備透過與 JT 的合資企業將 Ploom 商業化；並倡導建立負責任且監管良好的市場，包括加強對非法市場活動的執法力度。

My remarks this morning will focus on our view of the US nicotine space, our smoke-free progress, and our earnings guidance for 2025.

我今天早上的演講將重點討論我們對美國尼古丁領域的看法、我們的無菸進展以及我們對 2025 年的獲利預測。

I'll then hand it over to Sal, who will provide an update on consumer and industry dynamics, further detail on our smokeable business and financial results.

然後我將把它交給薩爾，他將提供有關消費者和行業動態的最新信息，以及我們的可吸煙業務和財務業績的進一步詳細信息。

Let's begin with the operating environment and our view of the nicotine space.

讓我們從操作環境和對尼古丁領域的看法開始。

The potential for tobacco harm reduction in the US is significant, and consumers are seeking smoke-free alternatives at a faster pace than we've seen historically.

美國減少菸草危害的潛力巨大，消費者尋求無菸替代品的速度比歷史上任何時候都快。

In fact, over the past year, the estimated number of adult consumers in the e-vapor and oral tobacco categories grew to approximately 28 million, nearly as large as the adult smoker population.

事實上，在過去的一年裡，電子煙和口香菸草類別的成年消費者數量估計增長到約 2,800 萬，幾乎與成年吸菸者的數量相當。

We estimate that smoke-free alternatives represented approximately 45% of the total nicotine space, up 5 percentage points from the prior year.

我們估計無菸替代品約佔尼古丁總量的 45%，比前一年增加了 5 個百分點。

For the total nicotine space, industry equivalized nicotine volumes increased for the second consecutive year and grew by approximately 2% over the past five years on a compounded annual basis.

就總尼古丁領域而言，該行業等效尼古丁量連續第二年增加，並且在過去五年中按年複合增長率增長約 2%。

The growing adoption of smoke-free alternatives is encouraging and directly aligned with our vision and the growth aspirations of our smoke-free businesses.

無菸替代品的日益普及令人鼓舞，並且與我們的願景和無菸業務的成長願望直接一致。

In addition, decades of deliberate actions to prevent youth tobacco use are yielding results, and underage tobacco usage rates are at historic lows.

此外，數十年來預防青少年吸菸的刻意行動正在取得成效，未成年人吸菸率處於歷史最低水平。

Together, these trends are very encouraging for public health and the harm reduction opportunity.

總的來說，這些趨勢對於公共健康和減少危害的機會來說是非常令人鼓舞的。

However, the primary driver of industry and smoke-free growth continues to be the widespread availability of illicit disposable e-vapor products, which is jeopardizing the long-term opportunity for tobacco harm reduction.

然而，非法一次性電子蒸氣產品的廣泛普及仍然是產業和無菸成長的主要驅動力，這危及了菸草危害減少的長期機會。

We estimate that the e-vapor category grew by approximately 30% in 2024 and that illicit products represent more than 60% of the category.

我們估計，2024 年電子煙類別將成長約 30%，其中非法產品佔 60% 以上。

At year end, we estimate that there were 20 million vapers, up nearly 20% from the prior year, driven exclusively by disposable vapers.

截至年底，我們估計電子煙使用者數量為 2,000 萬，較上年增長近 20%，主要由一次性電子煙驅動。

Our data also showed that approximately 40% of the growth in disposable vapers came from those with no prior cigarette usage.

我們的數據還顯示，一次性電子煙使用者成長中約 40% 來自之前從未使用過香菸的人。

It has become clear that two markets exist in the US, one for those who operate within the regulatory framework and one for those who flagrantly violate and evade the rules.

顯然，美國有兩個市場，一個是那些在監管框架內運作的企業的市場，另一個是那些公然違反和逃避規則的企業的市場。

In the simplest terms, we believe the regulatory structure is broken, and the tobacco marketplace is not operating as Congress intended.

簡單來說，我們認為監管結構已經崩潰，菸草市場並沒有按照國會的設想運作。

The FDA has not authorized enough smoke-free products to meet consumer demand with legal products, and regulators are not holding bad actors accountable.

FDA 核准的無菸產品不足以滿足消費者對合法產品的需求，而監管機構也沒有追究不良行為者的責任。

Illicit product manufacturers, distributors, and retailers have yet to experience any material consequences for violating federal laws and regulations.

非法產品製造商、分銷商和零售商尚未因違反聯邦法律法規而遭受任何重大後果。

This dynamic continues to make the operating environment challenging for responsible manufacturers and retailers and is confusing for consumers seeking FDA-authorized products.

這種動態繼續使負責任的製造商和零售商的經營環境面臨挑戰，並讓尋求 FDA 授權產品的消費者感到困惑。

In 2023, we introduced our 2028 enterprise goals to more clearly define where we are headed.

2023年，我們推出了2028年企業目標，以更明確地明確我們的發展方向。

We believe our deep understanding of adult tobacco consumers, our comprehensive smoke-free portfolio, and our industry-leading capabilities would help make them a reality.

我們相信，我們對成年菸草消費者的深刻理解、我們全面的無菸產品組合以及我們領先業界的能力將有助於實現這些目標。

When we established these goals, we were aware of a small illicit e-vapor market not dissimilar from a list of markets in other tobacco categories throughout our history.

當我們制定這些目標時，我們意識到存在一個小型的非法電子蒸氣市場，它與我們歷史上其他菸草類別的市場名單並沒有什麼不同。

However, the illicit e-vapor market has grown to a size and scale beyond our expectations.

然而，非法電子煙市場已經發展到超出我們預期的規模。

We believe this dynamic compromises our ability to achieve our 2028 smoke-free volume and revenue goals.

我們認為，這種動態會影響我們實現 2028 年無菸量和收入目標的能力。

In addition, we believe it compromises our ability to achieve the NJOY specific financial targets we established in connection with that transaction.

此外，我們認為這會損害我們實現與該交易相關的設定的 NJOY 特定財務目標的能力。

As a result, we are reassessing these smoke-free goals and NJOY targets and anticipate providing updates when we have more clarity on how the legitimate e-vapor market may evolve.

因此，我們正在重新評估這些無菸目標和 NJOY 目標，並期待在對合法電子煙市場如何發展有更清晰的認識時提供更新。

We will be looking for signs of material progress, such as a decline in the illicit growth -- in the growth of illicit products, a meaningful increase in the number of illicit products prevented from entering the US, and DOJ or state AGs bringing litigation against illicit manufacturers, distributors and importers.

我們將尋找實質進展的跡象，例如非法成長的下降——非法產品的成長，被阻止進入美國的非法產品數量的顯著增加，以及司法部或州檢察長對非法製造商、分銷商和進口商。

Encouragingly, earlier this month, nine state AGs and the District of Columbia announced various actions against illicit e-vapor importers, distributors, and retailers.

令人鼓舞的是，本月早些時候，九個州檢察長和哥倫比亞特區宣布對非法電子煙進口商、分銷商和零售商採取各種行動。

We also believe the FDA can restore order to the market by authorizing more PMTAs to establish a legal market of alternatives for consumers and by partnering with other federal agencies to prevent illicit products from entering the country.

我們也相信，FDA 可以透過授權更多的 PMTA 來為消費者建立合法的替代品市場，並與其他聯邦機構合作來防止非法產品進入美國，從而恢復市場秩序。

I am optimistic that these issues can and will be addressed.

我樂觀地認為這些問題能夠而且將會得到解決。

Let me be clear, we remain steadfast in our commitment to our vision and to building a portfolio of FDA-authorized smoke-free products for adult smokers and adult consumers currently using smoke-free products.

我要明確一點，我們始終堅定不移地致力於實現我們的願景，並致力於為成年吸煙者和目前使用無菸產品的成年消費者打造一系列 FDA 授權的無菸產品。

This update to our 2028 enterprise goals does not impact our corporate financial goals or long-term growth goals.

我們對 2028 年企業目標的更新不會影響我們的企業財務目標或長期成長目標。

And our progress on our goals can be found in the earnings release we issued this morning.

我們在實現目標方面所取得的進展可以從我們今天早上發布的收益報告中看到。

Let's now transition to our smoke-free performance beginning with NJOY. 2024 was a year of growth and learning for NJOY, and we are pleased with its performance in the context of the broader e-vapor market, as NJOY grew volume and share in a competitive pod segment.

現在讓我們從 NJOY 開始轉向無菸表現。 2024 年是 NJOY 成長和學習的一年，我們對其在更廣泛的電子煙市場中的表現感到滿意，因為 NJOY 在競爭激烈的煙彈領域實現了銷量和份額的增長。

NJOY's progress was driven by several actions taken throughout the year, which I'll briefly highlight.

NJOY 的進步得益於全年採取的多項行動，我將簡要介紹這些行動。

In 2024, NJOY expanded distribution of ACE to over 100,000 stores, secured premium position at retail in more than 80% of contracted stores through NJOY's first trade program, executed a variety of trial-generating activities with compelling results, and introduced a new brand equity campaign with impactful consumer messaging.

2024年，NJOY將ACE的分銷範圍擴大到10萬多家門店，透過NJOY的首個貿易計劃，在80%以上的簽約門市獲得了零售領域的優質地位，開展了各種試用活動，取得了令人矚目的效果，並引入了新的品牌資產向消費者傳達具有影響力的訊息的活動。

As a result of these efforts, NJOY consumables shipment volume grew by more than 15% to 12.8 million units in the fourth quarter.

由於這些努力，NJOY消耗品出貨量在第四季成長了15%以上，達到1,280萬台。

Consumables shipment volume for the full year was 46.6 million units.

全年耗材出貨量4,660萬台。

And NJOY device shipment volume for the fourth quarter grew by more than 22% to 1.1 million units and was 5 million units for the full year.

第四季NJOY設備出貨量年增超過22%，達到110萬台，全年出貨量為500萬台。

In the fourth quarter, NJOY's retail share of consumables was 6.4 share points, up 2.8 share points versus the year ago period.

第四季，NJOY消費品零售市佔率6.4個百分點，較去年同期上升2.8個百分點。

NJOY grew its share of consumables by 0.2 of a share point sequentially, while the retail price increased by over 20%, indicating strong demand for the brand.

NJOY 消耗品份額環比增長了 0.2 個百分點，零售價格上漲了 20% 以上，顯示該品牌的需求強勁。

Before moving on, I'll mention the litigation before the US International Trade Commission.

在繼續之前，我想提一下美國國際貿易委員會的訴訟。

Yesterday, the ITC issued its final determination in Juul's case against NJOY.

昨天，ITC 對 Juul v. NJOY 一案作出了最終裁定。

The ITC agreed with Juul's claims with respect to the four patents in this case.

ITC 同意 Juul 關於本案四項專利的主張。

We disagree with the ITC's decision and continue to believe that Juul's patents are invalid, and that ACE does not infringe on these patents.

我們不同意ITC的決定，並繼續認為Juul的專利無效，且ACE沒有侵犯這些專利。

As a remedy, the ITC issued an exclusion order and cease and desist orders barring the importation and sale of ACE.

作為補救措施，ITC 發布了排除令和停止令，禁止進口和銷售 ACE。

The ITC's decision is currently under a 60-day review period by the Office of the US Trade Representative, which could reject the ITC's decision.

目前，美國貿易代表辦公室正在對國際貿易委員會的決定進行為期 60 天的審查，美國貿易代表辦公室可能會拒絕國際貿易委員會的決定。

NJOY continues work on its product solution that addresses all of the patents at issue in the event the ITC's decision is not projected.

如果 ITC 的決定不被接受，NJOY 將繼續致力於開發解決所有相關專利的產品解決方案。

This decision would severely limit FDA-authorized choices, including the only FDA-authorized menthol e-vapor products, and undermines public health, especially in context of a market that is overrun by illicit products.

這項決定將嚴重限制 FDA 授權的選擇，包括唯一獲得 FDA 授權的薄荷醇電子蒸氣產品，並損害公眾健康，尤其是在非法產品氾濫的市場情況下。

Regarding NJOY's case against Juul, in December, the administrative law judge issued an initial determination finding that Juul's products did not infringe on NJOY's patents.

關於NJOY起訴Juul的案件，12月，行政法官發布初步裁定，認定Juul的產品沒有侵害NJOY的專利。

We have petitioned the ITC to review and reverse the ALJ's initial determination.

我們已請求 ITC 審查並撤銷 ALJ 的初步裁決。

We expect the ITC to issue a final determination in early April.

我們預計 ITC 將於 4 月初做出最終裁決。

Moving to the oral tobacco category, in the fourth quarter, oral nicotine pouches grew 9.6 share points versus the prior year and represented over 45% of the category.

談到口服菸草類別，第四季度，口服尼古丁袋比去年增加了 9.6 個份額點，佔該類別的 45% 以上。

Oral nicotine pouches were the primary contributor to the estimated 8% increase in oral tobacco industry volume over the past six months.

口服尼古丁袋是過去六個月口服菸草業銷售預計成長 8% 的主要原因。

Helix continued to participate in the category growth, as on!

Helix 持續參與品類成長，正如！

reported shipment volume grew by more than 44% year over year to nearly 44 million cans in the fourth quarter. on!

報告顯示，第四季出貨量年增逾 44%，達到近 4,400 萬罐。在！

performed well at retail, growing its share of the oral tobacco category by two share points year-over-year to 8.9% in the fourth quarter. on!

該公司在零售市場表現良好，第四季度在口服菸草類別中的份額同比增長了兩個點，達到 8.9%。在！

retail share was unchanged sequentially despite reduced promotional investments and increased competitive pressure.

儘管促銷投入減少且競爭壓力加大，零售市佔率仍比上一季持平。

Consumer loyalty for on!

消費者忠誠度不斷提高！

continues to build an approximately 800,000 consumers regularly purchased on!

繼續打造約80萬消費者定期購買的平台！

in the fourth quarter, an increase of more than 40% versus the prior year.

第四季度，年增超過40%。

This growth included increased sourcing from competitive pouch brands. on!'s

這種成長包括增加來自競爭性袋裝品牌的採購。上！

performance was enabled by a variety of strategic investments Helix made throughout the year, including a new trade program that created broader visibility and secured premium fixture position for nearly 80% of on!'s

業績的實現得益於 Helix 全年進行的多項戰略投資，其中包括一項新的貿易計劃，該計劃提高了知名度，並確保了近 80% 的 on! 的優質固定位置

volume and a fresh new look for on!

音量和全新面貌！

packaging and the IT'S ON!

包裝和 IT'S ON！

equity campaign to further differentiate the brand.

資產活動來進一步區分品牌。

As a result of these efforts, Helix achieved profitability for the first time in the fourth quarter, ahead of its 2025 goal.

由於這些努力，Helix 在第四季度首次實現盈利，提前實現了 2025 年的目標。

And we anticipate Helix will be profitable for the full year 2025.

我們預計 Helix 將於 2025 年全年獲利。

Outside of the US, on!

在美國以外，繼續！

PLUS is competing in the nicotine pouch space in Sweden and the United Kingdom.

PLUS 正在瑞典和英國的尼古丁袋包裝領域競爭。

In both markets, on!

在兩個市場都繼續！

PLUS has been incremental to our total portfolio, sourcing mainly from competitive brands. on!

PLUS 已成為我們整體產品組合中的增量，主要從競爭品牌採購。在！

PLUS's FLEX TECH pouch offers a unique product experience, and we are encouraged by the steady momentum that on!

PLUS 的 FLEX TECH 小袋提供獨特的產品體驗，我們對其穩定的發展勢頭感到鼓舞！

PLUS is building at retail and on e-commerce.

PLUS 正在拓展零售和電子商務業務。

We are using consumer insights to inform our plans as we are launching two new flavors: raspberry lemon and watermelon mint in both markets to appeal to evolving consumer preferences.

我們正在利用消費者洞察來指導我們的計劃，因為我們將在兩個市場推出兩種新口味：覆盆子檸檬和西瓜薄荷，以滿足不斷變化的消費者偏好。

We look forward to bringing on!

我們期待繼續！

PLUS to the US once authorized.

一旦獲得授權，即可向美國出口。

In heated tobacco, we believe we are developing a portfolio of products that will appeal to adult smokers seeking innovative inhalable alternatives to e-vapor products.

在加熱菸草領域，我們相信我們正在開發一系列產品，這些產品將吸引那些尋求創新可吸入電子蒸氣產品替代品的成年吸菸者。

We are moving forward with regulatory preparations to bring heated tobacco stick products to the US through Horizon, our joint venture with JT.

我們正在推進監管準備，透過與 JT 的合資企業 Horizo​​n 將加熱菸草棒產品引入美國。

During 2024, we made great progress towards our PMTA and accelerated our work on an MRTPA submission for Ploom.

2024 年，我們在 PMTA 方面取得了巨大進展，並加快了 Ploom 的 MRTPA 提交工作。

We now expect to make a combined submission in midyear 2025.

我們預計在 2025 年中期提交一份綜合報告。

And in December, we commenced a small-scale test launch of SWIC, our heated tobacco capsule product, through e-commerce in Great Britain.

12月，我們開始在英國透過電子商務小規模試銷加熱菸草膠囊產品SWIC。

We expect to use consumer insights from the test to further inform our strategies.

我們希望利用測試中的消費者洞察來進一步引導我們的策略。

Turning to our 2025 financial outlook, we remain committed to tobacco harm reduction in the US and continue to believe there is a significant opportunity to shift millions of smokers to FDA-authorized smoke-free alternatives.

展望我們的 2025 年財務展望，我們仍然致力於減少美國的菸草危害，並繼續相信有很大機會讓數百萬吸菸者轉向 FDA 授權的無菸替代品。

Our planned investment areas include market activities in support of our smoke-free products and continued smoke-free product research, development, and regulatory preparations.

我們計劃的投資領域包括支持我們的無菸產品的市場活動以及持續的無菸產品研究、開發和監管準備。

We believe the external environment will remain dynamic in 2025.

我們認為2025年的外部環境仍將保持動態。

And we will continue to monitor the economy, including the cumulative impact of inflation, tobacco consumer dynamics, including purchasing patterns and adoption of smoke-free products, illicit product enforcement, and regulatory litigation and legislative developments.

我們將繼續監控經濟，包括通貨膨脹的累積影響、菸草消費者動態（包括購買模式和無菸產品的採用）、非法產品執法以及監管訴訟和立法發展。

Considering these factors, we expect to deliver 2025 full year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $5.22 to $5.37. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 2% to 5% from a $5.12 base in 2024.

考慮到這些因素，我們預計 2025 年全年調整後攤薄每股收益將在 5.22 美元至 5.37 美元之間。此範圍代表 2024 年調整後的稀釋每股盈餘成長率從 5.12 美元的基數成長 2% 至 5%。

Our guidance includes the impact of one fewer shipping day in 2025, which occurs in the first quarter, assumes a limited impact on combustible and e-vapor product volumes from enforcement efforts in the illicit e-vapor market, and includes the reinvestment of anticipated cost savings related to our previously announced Optimize & Accelerate initiative.

我們的指導包括 2025 年第一季運輸天數減少一天的影響，假設非法電子煙市場執法力度對可燃和電子煙產品數量的影響有限，並包括預期成本的再投資與我們之前宣布的「優化和加速”計劃相關的節省。

In addition, the guidance range includes lower expected net periodic benefit income.

此外，指導範圍包括較低的預期淨定期福利收入。

I'd also like to welcome Rich Stoddart to our Board of Directors as announced this morning.

我還要歡迎 Rich Stoddart 加入我們的董事會，正如今天上午宣布的那樣。

Mr. Stoddart's extensive global marketing and executive leadership experience will be a tremendous asset to Altria.

斯托達特先生豐富的全球行銷和高階主管領導經驗對奧馳亞來說將是一筆巨大的財富。

I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide additional detail on our business and financial results.

現在我將把話題交給薩爾，讓他提供有關我們的業務和財務結果的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Billy.

謝謝，比利。

Our core tobacco businesses generated solid financial performance again this year in a challenging external environment.

儘管外部環境充滿挑戰，我們的核心菸草業務今年再次取得了穩健的財務表現。

The smokeable products segment delivered on its strategy of maximizing profitability while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of smoke-free products.

可吸菸產品部門實施了最大化獲利能力的策略，同時適當地平衡了對萬寶路的投資與對無菸產品成長的資助。

The segment grew its adjusted operating company's income by 5.5% in the fourth quarter and by 2% for the full year.

該部門調整後營運公司的收入在第四季度增長了 5.5%，全年增長了 2%。

Adjusted OCI margins expanded to 61.2% and 61.6% for the fourth quarter and full year, respectively.

第四季和全年調整後的 OCI 利潤率分別擴大至 61.2% 和 61.6%。

This performance was supported by robust net price realization of 11.3% for the quarter and 10.1% for the full year.

這一業績得益於本季 11.3% 和全年 10.1% 的強勁淨價實現率。

Smokeable products segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 8.8% in the fourth quarter and 10.2% for the full year.

吸菸產品部門報告稱，第四季度國內捲菸銷量下降 8.8%，全年下降 10.2%。

When adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movements, domestic cigarette volumes for the fourth quarter and the full year declined by an estimated 11%.

經日曆差異和貿易庫存變動調整後，第四季和全年國內捲菸銷量估計下降了 11%。

At the industry level, we estimate that adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by 8% in the fourth quarter and 9% for the full year.

從行業層面來看，我們估計調整後的國內捲菸銷量在第四季度下降了 8%，全年下降了 9%。

As Billy described, the pace of change within the nicotine space has been rapid over the past two years.

正如比利所描述的，過去兩年來，尼古丁領域的變化速度很快。

These changes have resulted in significant shifts in adult tobacco consumer preferences, with an increasing number of adult consumers entering the nicotine category, primarily through smoke-free products.

這些變化導致成年菸草消費者偏好發生重大轉變，越來越多的成年消費者進入尼古丁類別，主要透過無菸產品。

We have been monitoring these shifts and their effects on cigarette industry decline rates and are making two updates to our latest cigarette category decomposition estimates.

我們一直在監測這些變化及其對菸草產業衰退率的影響，並對我們最新的菸草類別分解估計進行了兩次更新。

First, we believe that the cigarette category secular decline estimate of 2.5% represents the impact to cigarette industry volume due to the decline in adult smokers, excluding any cross-category movement.

首先，我們認為，捲菸類別長期下降2.5%的估計值代表了成年吸菸者數量下降對捲菸產業銷售的影響，不包括任何跨類別的變動。

Second, we estimate cross-category impacts contributed approximately 3% to 4% to the cigarette industry decline over the last 12 months.

其次，我們估計跨類別影響對過去 12 個月菸草產業下滑的貢獻率約為 3% 至 4%。

Turning now to share dynamics, total discount segment share grew by 1.7 share points in the fourth quarter and by 1.3 share points for the full year, with most of the growth coming from deep discount.

現在來看看份額動態，第四季度折扣板塊總份額增長了 1.7 個百分點，全年增長了 1.3 個百分點，大部分增長來自大幅折扣。

Marlboro retail share of the cigarette category declined one share point in the fourth quarter and 0.3 share points sequentially, consistent with the recent historical seasonality in the fourth quarter.

萬寶路在捲菸類別的零售份額在第四季度下降了 1 個百分點，比上一季下降了 0.3 個百分點，與第四季近期的歷史季節性一致。

Within the highly profitable premium segment, Marlboro expanded its share of premium to 59.4% for the fourth quarter, an increase of 0.1 share point year over year and sequentially.

在利潤豐厚的高端菸草市場，萬寶路第四季的高端菸草市場佔有率擴大至59.4%，較上一季及去年同期成長了0.1個百分點。

For the full year, Marlboro grew its share of premium to 59.3%, an increase of 0.4 share points versus the prior year.

就全年而言，萬寶路的高端菸草市佔率成長至59.3%，較前一年增加0.4個百分點。

We believe that Marlboro remains the aspirational brand in the cigarette category, and we are encouraged by its performance in 2024.

我們相信萬寶路仍然是香菸類別中令人嚮往的品牌，我們對其在 2024 年的表現感到鼓舞。

In cigars, reported shipment volume increased 2.9% in the fourth quarter.

就雪茄而言，第四季的出貨量成長了 2.9%。

Middleton continued to contribute to smokeable products segment financial results, and Black & Mild remain the leader in the highly profitable machine-made large tip cigar segment.

米德爾頓 (Middleton) 繼續為吸煙產品部門的財務業績做出貢獻，而 Black＆Mild 則繼續在利潤豐厚的機制大尖頭雪茄領域保持領先地位。

The oral tobacco products segment reported strong fourth-quarter results.

口服菸草產品部門公佈了強勁的第四季度業績。

Adjusted OCI and adjusted OCI margins increased, and on!

調整後的 OCI 和調整後的 OCI 利潤率有所增加，並且繼續！

grew its retail share of the oral tobacco category year over year.

口香煙草類別的零售份額逐年增長。

For the fourth quarter, adjusted OCI grew 13%, and the segment expanded adjusted OCI margins to 69.5%, an impressive increase of 6.4 percentage points versus the prior year.

第四季度，調整後的 OCI 成長 13%，該部門調整後的 OCI 利潤率擴大至 69.5%，較上年同期大幅成長 6.4 個百分點。

For the full year, the segment grew adjusted OCI by 5.2%, with adjusted OCI margins of 67.8%, up 0.4 percentage points.

全年該部門調整後 OCI 成長 5.2%，調整後 OCI 利潤率為 67.8%，上升 0.4 個百分點。

Total segment reported shipment volume decreased by 0.4% and 1% for the fourth quarter and full year, respectively.

該部門報告的總出貨量第四季和全年分別下降了 0.4% 和 1%。

When adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences, segment volumes were essentially unchanged for the fourth quarter and declined by an estimated 2% for the full year.

經貿易庫存變動和日曆差異調整後，第四季分部銷售量基本保持不變，全年銷售量預計下降 2%。

Oral tobacco products segment retail share declined by 3.1 percentage points in the fourth quarter, as declines in our MST brands were partially offset by on!

口服菸草產品部門零售份額在第四季度下降了 3.1 個百分點，因為我們的 MST 品牌的下滑被部分抵消了！

share gains.

分享收益。

Within the MST category for the fourth quarter and full year, Copenhagen remained the undisputed leader, and approximately one in every two MST cans purchased was a US STC brand.

在第四季度和全年的 MST 類別中，哥本哈根仍然是無可爭議的領導者，購買的每兩罐 MST 中，大約有一罐是美國 STC 品牌。

Turning to our investment in ABI, we recorded $159 million of adjusted equity earnings for the fourth quarter, down 8.1% versus the prior year.

談到我們對 ABI 的投資，我們第四季度的調整後股權收益為 1.59 億美元，較上年下降 8.1%。

These earnings reflect the impact of a lower ownership interest compared to the year ago period due to the partial sale of our ABI investment last year.

這些收益反映了由於去年我們部分出售了 ABI 投資而導致的所有權權益與去年同期相比下降的影響。

We continue to view the ABI stake as a financial investment, and our goal remains to maximize the long-term value of the investment for our shareholders.

我們繼續將 ABI 股份視為一項金融投資，我們的目標仍然是為股東實現投資的長期價值最大化。

We demonstrated our commitment to returning significant value to shareholders and maintaining a strong balance sheet during 2024.

我們展示了向股東回報重大價值並在 2024 年保持強勁資產負債表的決心。

For the full year, we returned over $10.2 billion of cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

全年我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了超過 102 億美元的現金。

We paid $6.8 billion in dividends, and our Board raised our dividend by 4.1% in August, marking our 59th increase in the last 55 years.

我們支付了 68 億美元的股息，董事會在 8 月將股息提高了 4.1%，這是我們 55 年來第 59 次增加股息。

We also completed our previously authorized share repurchase program, repurchasing 73.5 million shares for $3.4 billion, representing our largest single year share repurchase in over two decades.

我們也完成了先前授權的股票回購計劃，以 34 億美元回購了 7,350 萬股，這是我們二十多年來最大的單年股票回購。

Our share repurchases were supported by the proceeds from our partial sale of our investment in ABI.

我們的股票回購由我們出售對 ABI 部分投資的收益支持。

We effectively balanced our capital allocation priorities during the year, and we maintained a strong balance sheet.

我們在這一年中有效平衡了資本配置重點，並維持了強勁的資產負債表。

Our total debt-to-EBITDA ratio as of December 31 was 2.1 times, in line with our target of approximately 2 times.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的總負債與 EBITDA 比率為 2.1 倍，與我們約 2 倍的目標一致。

Moving to 2025, I am pleased to announce that our Board authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of this year.

展望 2025 年，我很高興地宣布，我們的董事會批准了一項新的 10 億美元股票回購計劃，我們預計該計劃將在今年年底前完成。

With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions.

我們的討論就到此結束，我和比利很樂意回答你們的問題。

While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory, and other items.

在匯總電話會議的同時，我會提醒您，今天的收益報告和我們的非 GAAP 對帳單可在 altria.com 上查閱。我們還發布了常規季度指標，其中包括定價、庫存和其他項目。

Let's open the question-and-answer period.

讓我們開始問答環節。

Operator, do we have any questions?

接線員，我們還有什麼問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Matt Smith, Stifel.

（操作員指示）馬特史密斯（Matt Smith），Stifel。

Billy, maybe to start out, the guidance for the year, the 2% to 5% EPS growth, can you talk about the phasing of earnings growth?

比利，也許首先，今年的預期是每股盈餘成長 2% 至 5%，您能談談獲利成長的階段性嗎？

You have lower MSA costs in the first three quarters, but one less shipping day in the first quarter.

前三個季度的 MSA 成本較低，但第一季的運輸日數減少了一天。

So just as we can consider the shape of the year, can you help us with -- in terms of phasing?

那麼，正如我們可以考慮今年的情況一樣，您能否在分階段方面幫助我們？

Yes.

是的。

Matt, we don't guide to the quarter.

馬特，我們不指導該季度。

But I think as you think about the year, nothing is really distorting in 2024 as we look forward to 2025.

但我認為，當你回顧這一年時，當我們展望 2025 年時，2024 年並沒有什麼真正扭曲的事情。

You remember '24 to '23, we ramped up spending in NJOY because we had a half year to a full year ownership of that brand.

您還記得，從 24 年到 23 年，我們增加了在 NJOY 上的支出，因為我們擁有該品牌半年到一年的所有權。

Nothing like that would stand out for 2025 as we go forward.

隨著我們不斷前進，2025 年將不會再出現類似的事情。

We did want to highlight the one less shipping day in the first quarter.

我們確實想強調第一季的運輸日減少了一天。

So just to make sure people understood that that was occurring in the first quarter.

所以只是為了確保人們了解這是在第一季發生的情況。

Thank you, Billy.

謝謝你，比利。

As my follow-up, Marlboro continues to perform well in terms of market share of the premium segment, but discount share trends picked back up in the fourth quarter.

我的後續關注是，萬寶路在高端菸草市場的份額持續表現良好，但折扣菸草市場的份額趨勢在第四季度有所回升。

You called out continued discretionary income pressure on adult tobacco consumers.

您呼籲成年菸草消費者繼續承受可支配所得的壓力。

Can you talk about the trends you're seeing in those adult consumers?

您能談談您在成年消費者身上看到的趨勢嗎？

Is there incremental pressure?

是否有增量壓力？

Or is this continued cumulative impact over time and a mix shift given the proliferation of cigarette alternatives?

或者說，隨著時間的推移，這種影響會持續累積，並且隨著香菸替代品的激增而發生混合轉變？

And how do you see that playing out through 2025?

您認為到 2025 年這一情況將如何發展？

Yes.

是的。

And that's one of the things we'll continue to monitor, Matt, to your point.

馬特，正如你所說，這是我們將繼續關注的事情之一。

We do see the cumulative impact really affecting our consumers.

我們確實看到累積影響確實影響了我們的消費者。

And you can see it outside of the tobacco industry.

你也可以在菸草業之外看到這種情況。

You can see it in credit card, late payments, things of that nature and the amount of credit card that the consumers are carrying.

您可以從信用卡、延遲付款等性質的事情以及消費者持有的信用卡數量中看到這一點。

So the consumer continues to feel that pressure, and it really, we believe, is the cumulative impact of inflation.

因此，消費者繼續感受到壓力，我們認為，這實際上是通貨膨脹的累積影響。

So we'll see how that shapes up in 2025, but we feel good about the guidance we gave.

因此，我們將觀察 2025 年的情況，但我們對我們給予的指導感到滿意。

And as you know, we take very many things into consideration before we provide that range, but it is something that we'll monitor.

如您所知，在提供該範圍之前，我們會考慮很多事情，但我們會對其進行監控。

As far as cross category, we're continuing to see that pressure.

就跨類別而言，我們繼續看到這種壓力。

We try to highlight that in our decomposition of cigarette industry volume.

我們試圖在菸草業產量分解時突出這一點。

It really is -- and you heard in my remarks, the illicit e-vapor market flooding the market with flavors.

事實確實如此——正如你們在我的評論中所聽到的，非法電子煙市場充斥著各種口味。

If you step back, you can take an optimistic view.

如果你退一步，你就能保持樂觀的眼光。

It's what we've been saying that consumers are ready to move if they can find alternatives.

我們一直在說，如果消費者能夠找到替代品，他們就願意採取行動。

We just need a regulatory system that authorizes legal products and enforces against illegal products.

我們只需要一個授權合法產品並打擊非法產品的監管體系。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格 (Bonnie Herzog)。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I was hoping you could provide a little more color on the possible options you have for NJOY?

我希望您能詳細介紹一下 NJOY 可能提供的選項？

And what a potential settlement with Juul be on the table, I guess?

我猜想 Juul 可能會達成什麼樣的和解？

How are you guys thinking about playing in the e-vapor category right now, especially given how the market has evolved with illicit, et cetera.

你們現在如何考慮進軍電子煙領域，尤其是考慮到市場非法活動等的發展。

Billy, you did discuss some of this, and also asking, given your comments about no longer being able to hit your targets for NJOY.

比利，你確實討論過其中的一些問題，並且還詢問了你關於不再能夠實現 NJOY 目標的評論。

So is it maybe not worth being in e-vapor right now and possibly better to prioritize and protect the profitability you have in smokeable, drive growth in nic pouches with on!

因此，現在涉足電子煙領域可能不值得，而最好優先考慮並保護您在可吸煙產品方面的盈利能力，推動尼古丁袋的增長！

as well as pursue H&B while at the same time, returning cash to shareholders with your strong dividend and buyback program?

以及追求 H&B，同時透過強勁的股息和回購計劃向股東返還現金？

So just kind of love to hear your thoughts on all of this.

所以我很想聽聽你對這一切的想法。

Yes.

是的。

You brought up a lot of good points, Bonnie.

邦妮，你提出了很多很好的觀點。

I'll try to give you a concise answer, but if I missed anything or you have a follow-up, please do.

我會嘗試給你一個簡潔的答案，但如果我遺漏了任何內容或你還有後續問題，請告訴我。

I think when you step back as far as pathways, there are a number of pathways, there are still some steps in the process.

我認為，當你回顧路徑時，會發現有很多路徑，而且過程中仍有一些步驟。

I talked about the review of the trade representative.

我剛才講了貿易代表的審查。

While that has been -- you look back in history, it's been very rare.

然而，回顧歷史，這種情況非常罕見。

I think there are special circumstances here.

我認為這裡存在一些特殊情況。

If you think about public health, you have a market that's flooded with illegal vaper products, specifically disposables that have completely shirked the regulatory process are in the market, while you have NJOY, which authorized on the tobacco flavors and the only authorized thus far on the menthol side.

如果你考慮一下公共健康，你會發現市場上充斥著非法的電子煙產品，特別是那些完全逃避監管程序的一次性電子煙產品，而NJOY 是迄今為止唯一一家獲得煙草口味授權的電子煙製造商。

So when I think you think about that from a public health perspective, I really believe public health and the improvement of public health through time should be a determining factor as we go through that process.

因此，當我從公共衛生的角度考慮這個問題時，我真的相信公共衛生以及公共衛生隨著時間的推移而不斷的改善應該成為我們經歷這一過程的決定性因素。

But you mentioned settlement.

但您提到了解決方案。

And you mentioned the factors that we'll be considering.

您提到了我們將考慮的因素。

One, you need a reasonable party on the other side.

一，你需要對方有理性的一方。

We're going to be disciplined about it.

我們將嚴守紀律。

When you think about the e-vapor market, the pods segment declining at roughly 15%, you have to be -- and we will be disciplined on what you consider reasonable.

當你考慮電子煙市場時，你會發現煙彈部分的市場份額下降了大約 15%，你必須——而且我們會根據你認為合理的程度進行約束。

I think when you think about what's winning in the marketplace is illegal disposable products.

我認為，當您考慮市場上獲勝的是什麼時，您會想到非法的一次性產品。

And that's clearly the winner in the marketplace.

這顯然是市場上的贏家。

The brands may change names, but that is what's winning.

品牌可能會更改名稱，但這正是成功的關鍵。

So we're certainly taking that into consideration as we consider pipeline products to meet consumer demands in the e-vapor space.

因此，當我們考慮管道產品以滿足電子蒸汽領域消費者的需求時，我們肯定會考慮到這一點。

There are a number of avenues to continue.

有多種途徑可以繼續下去。

We've shared with you previously, we filed SE exemptions for three patents where we work -- our engineers worked to not infringe on the patents.

我們之前曾與大家分享過，我們在工作中為三項專利申請了 SE 豁免權——我們的工程師努力不侵犯這些專利。

And I think when you come to the bottom line from the patent standpoint, nothing changes that goes into the product, and nothing changes that comes out to the consumer.

我認為，從專利的角度來看，產品本身沒有任何變化，消費者得到的產品也沒有任何變化。

It's really some modifications to the device itself.

這實際上是對設備本身的一些修改。

And so I'll pause there and see if I hit all of your points, but that's how we're thinking about it.

因此，我會在這裡暫停一下，看看是否觸及了你的所有觀點，但這就是我們對此的看法。

No, I think that's helpful.

不，我認為這很有幫助。

But to your point about the SEs, I mean, I think what's maybe missing is that fourth, right?

但是對於您提到的 SE，我的意思是，我認為可能缺少的是第四個，對嗎？

And it doesn't solve for the fourth patent, I guess.

我想，這並不能解決第四項專利的問題。

So I think you may be

所以我認為你可能是

--

--

Yes, I hear you, Bonnie, and our engineers are vigorously working on that final, if you will, change that would allow us not to infringe on the determination by the ITC.

是的，我聽到了，邦妮，我們的工程師正在積極努力地進行最終的變革，如果你願意的話，這將使我們不侵犯 ITC 的裁決。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then maybe just another quick question for me, just on your guidance.

然後也許我還有另一個快速問題，僅供您參考。

First, I did want to verify that your guidance includes the likely potential you're going to have to pull NJOY ACE from the market at the end of March?

首先，我確實想核實您的指導中是否包括您可能在 3 月底將 NJOY ACE 撤出市場的可能性？

I think it does.

我認為是的。

I just want to double check.

我只是想再確認一下。

And then second, assuming that happens, is it realistic to think about your ability to hit the high end of your EPS guidance range or just that being more likely given that NJOY is still operating at a loss and therefore, has been a drag on earnings?

其次，假設這種情況發生，您是否有能力達到 EPS 指導範圍的高端，或者只是更有可能，因為 NJOY 仍在虧損運營，因此拖累了盈利？

And if it's pulled, that would actually boost your income this year?

如果取消的話，今年你的收入真的會增加嗎？

Bonnie, we run, as you know, a number of scenarios as we're thinking about 2025.

邦妮，如你所知，我們在考慮 2025 年時設想了許多情景。

There are always puts and takes across the plan.

計劃中總是會有一些變數。

And that's why we provided a range related to the EPS guidance.

這就是我們提供與每股盈餘指引相關的範圍的原因。

So we'll see how the year plays out.

因此，我們看看今年的情況如何。

Obviously, we've got a lot of levers that we can pull to deal with anticipated variability in the marketplace.

顯然，我們可以採取許多措施來應對市場預期的變化。

So we feel good about the guidance we've provided.

因此，我們對所提供的指導感到滿意。

If there's anything to update as the year progresses, of course, we will.

如果隨著時間的推移有任何需要更新的內容，我們當然會更新。

Faham Baig, UBS.

瑞銀的 Faham Baig。

Good morning, guys.

大家早安。

I just have one follow-up and then maybe two actual questions.

我只想問一個後續問題，然後可能還有兩個實際問題。

Just going quickly back to the question on NJOY and the fourth patent that your engineers are furiously working behind.

我們再快速回到關於 NJOY 的問題以及你們的工程師正在努力研發的第四個專利。

If you are able to successfully navigate that patent and are able to submit an SE application for that, by when do you expect to receive approval for that SE application and thereby, you could be able to bring that NJOY product back on the market?

如果您能夠成功獲得該專利並且能夠為其提交 SE 申請，那麼您預計何時能夠獲得該 SE 申請的批准，從而您可以將該 NJOY 產品重新投放市場？

The second question that I have was just on the Q4 results.

我的第二個問題是關於第四季的業績。

And particularly in the smokeable division, your controllable costs in the final quarter was up around 13%, which is a sharp movement, particularly from the previous quarter.

特別是在可吸煙部門，最後一個季度的可控成本上漲了約 13%，這是一個急劇的變化，尤其是與上一季相比。

Could you just maybe explain the dynamics in the fourth quarter which resulted into that as well as how we should think about controllable costs going into 2025?

您能否解釋一下第四季的動態，以及我們應該如何考慮 2025 年的可控成本？

And the final question is on nicotine pouches.

最後一個問題是關於尼古丁袋的。

I was a bit surprised that the oral tobacco category didn't grow faster in '25 versus -- sorry, in '24 versus '23, given the rapid growth.

考慮到快速的成長，我有點驚訝口服菸草類別在 25 年的成長速度竟然沒有比 23 年更快——抱歉，是 24 年的成長速度比 23 年更快。

But how do you see the growth of nicotine pouches in 2025 and particularly the competitive dynamics from both your legal players as well as some of the illicit ones?

但是，您如何看待 2025 年尼古丁袋的成長，特別是來自合法參與者和一些非法參與者的競爭動態？

Yes, I will answer the question on the fourth patent and the nicotine pouches, and then I'll let Sal answer the one on smokeable costs.

是的，我將回答有關第四項專利和尼古丁袋的問題，然後我請薩爾回答有關可吸煙成本的問題。

I think when you think about that fourth patent, it really depends on the final lockdown of the change that we would make to be able to not infringe on the Juul patent.

我認為，當您考慮第四項專利時，它實際上取決於我們所做的最終變更，以便能夠不侵犯 Juul 專利。

If it follows the other three, it would be due to the SE exemption process.

如果它遵循其他三個，那將是由於 SE 豁免程序。

And as you recall, the SE exemption process is the more rapid -- while not predictable, a more rapid process to get authorized by the FDA.

您還記得，SE 豁免流程更為快捷——儘管不可預測，但卻是獲得 FDA 授權的更為快捷的流程。

As far as nicotine pouches, I think as you see introductions of new categories, they always have fits and starts as far as growth, depending on what consumer base they're reaching.

就尼古丁袋而言，我認為，當你看到新類別的推出時，它們的成長總是會時斷時續，這取決於它們所涵蓋的消費者群體。

I think you saw nicotine pouches grow so rapidly in the introduction because you had the traditional moist smokeless tobacco consumer moving over who was used to putting, if you will, tobacco or nicotine enjoyment products in their mouth.

我認為，您看到尼古丁袋在推出時增長如此迅速，是因為傳統的濕無菸煙草消費者已經習慣將煙草或尼古丁享受產品放入嘴裡。

And so that's intuitive.

這是直觀的。

I think what will continue to grow is if it can speak to and consumers can make the change from other forms of nicotine such as cigarettes over to nicotine pouches.

我認為，如果它能夠引起消費者的興趣並且消費者能夠從香菸等其他形式的尼古丁轉​​向尼古丁袋，它就會繼續增長。

And so while we don't guide on volume, we think we have a great product with on!, we're looking to on!

因此，雖然我們沒有對音量進行指導，但我們認為我們擁有一款出色的產品！ ，我們期待著！

PLUS to be authorized so that we can bring that to market and continue to engage the consumers to switch them over to smoke-free products.

獲得授權後我們就可以將其推向市場並繼續吸引消費者轉用無菸產品。

Yes.

是的。

And in terms of costs, I think when you look at the fourth quarter, I would just point to timing.

就成本而言，我認為當你看第四季度時，我只會指出時間問題。

I think you got to look at costs over a longer period than just one quarter.

我認為你必須考慮更長時期內的成本，而不僅僅是一個季度的成本。

So timing definitely a factor in Q4.

因此，時機絕對是第四季的一個因素。

As far as 2025, we don't guide at that granularity of a level for controllable costs.

就 2025 年而言，我們還沒有以這種精細的水平來指導可控成本。

I will tell you though, obviously, we're -- the smokeable category is a declining category.

不過我要告訴你，顯然，可吸食類別是一個正在衰退的類別。

We are going to be disciplined in how we think about resource allocation.

我們將嚴格思考資源分配的方式。

I guess one other thing I would point to when it comes to cost management, there are controllable costs.

我想說的是，談到成本管理，還有一件事我要指出，那就是成本是可控的。

And then, of course, we are using data analytics and the revenue growth management tools to allow us to be more efficient with how we continue to allocate our promotional resources in support of our cigarette brands.

當然，我們正在使用數據分析和收入成長管理工具，以便我們更有效地繼續分配促銷資源來支持我們的捲菸品牌。

So there's more than just controllable costs when we think about financial discipline.

因此，當我們考慮財務紀律時，不要只考慮可控成本。

Gaurav Jain, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So a few for me.

對我來說就幾個了。

So the first is on on!.

因此第一個是 on on!。

The pricing was up nicely in Q4.

第四季價格大幅上漲。

And despite that, the volume growth remains impressive.

儘管如此，銷量成長仍然令人印象深刻。

So is that something now -- how we should think of on!

那麼現在該怎麼辦呢──我們該怎麼考慮！

that you can keep pricing up given especially the spread which it still exists with the market leader and yet your volumes can continue to compound at the rate at which industry is growing?

考慮到與市場領導者之間仍然存在的價差，你們可以保持較高的價格，而你們的銷量卻可以繼續以行業增長的速度增長？

Yes, I appreciate the question.

是的，我很感謝你提出這個問題。

I think when you think about the nicotine space, it's getting more and more competitive both with illicit product in the marketplace as well as what we see is the FDA is applying enforcement discretion against synthetic nicotine products in the marketplace that had filed a PMTA, even though it appeared that the statute was pretty clear.

我認為，當你考慮尼古丁領域時，它變得越來越有競爭力，無論是市場上的非法產品，還是我們看到的FDA 正在對市場上已提交PMTA 的合成尼古丁產品實施執法自由裁量權，甚至儘管看上去該法規非常明確。

So I think their application of enforcement discretion has bled over to the synthetic in that area.

因此我認為他們對執法自由裁量權的運用已經蔓延到了該領域的合成領域。

I think when you think about on!, I think it's the product itself, it resonates with the consumer.

我認為當你考慮！

We certainly have gotten a bit sharper with how we put promotional spending in the marketplace.

我們在如何將促銷支出投入市場方面確實變得更加敏銳了。

It allows us to continue to generate trial while being able to increase, if you will, the profitability of the product in the marketplace.

它使我們能夠繼續進行試驗，同時能夠提高產品在市場上的獲利能力。

We were extremely pleased to be able to meet our profitability target ahead of time.

我們非常高興能夠提前實現獲利目標。

And we'll continue to use data analytics to get sharper to generate trial, but to keep loyalty with the brand as well.

我們將繼續使用數據分析來更精準地產生試用，同時也保持對品牌的忠誠度。

And you heard in the remarks, the loyalty percentage of the consumers year-over-year who are returning to purchase on!, we feel like is very impressive.

您在評論中聽到了，同比去年回來購買的消費者忠誠度百分比！ ，我們覺得非常令人印象深刻。

Then a follow-up on -- actually, your comments on the synthetic nicotine market.

然後是後續問題——實際上，您對合成尼古丁市場的評論。

So clearly, your competitors who have launched in the nicotine market, they are seeing the market differently in terms of what the FDA can do or cannot do.

顯然，已經進入尼古丁市場的競爭對手對 FDA 能做什麼、不能做什麼有不同的看法。

So isn't that a market you also want to participate in, not only on the nicotine pouch side, but also on the e-cigarette side?

那麼這是否也是您想參與的市場，不僅是尼古丁袋市場，還有電子煙市場？

Because if a lot of new companies, have large products using synthetic nicotine, then you should also be evaluating that.

因為如果許多新公司大量使用合成尼古丁的產品，那麼你也應該對此進行評估。

Certainly, and we have been evaluating it all along.

當然，我們一直在評估它。

We were surprised with the application of enforcement discretion in that area based on what we felt like was clarity in the statute when it was passed.

當該法規通過時，我們認為其明確性，因此對於該領域執法自由裁量權的運用感到驚訝。

But certainly, with them applying enforcement discretion is something that's moved up on our radar.

但可以肯定的是，他們運用執法裁量權已經引起了我們的注意。

Sure.

當然。

And lastly, on the cigarette market share losses, I think we all have discussed it over the years that you want to maximize profitability in cigarettes.

最後，關於香菸市場份額的損失，我想我們多年來都討論過這個問題，即最大限度地提高香菸的盈利能力。

But is there -- like now your share losses are worsening versus where the industry growth rate is.

但是，現在您的份額損失相對於行業成長率而言正在加劇嗎？

So does that start confirming you at some point of time?

那麼這是否會在某個時間點開始確認你的觀點？

I think when you back up, Gaurav, we've been highlighting for you that when you look historically, when the consumer is under pressure, they react to their current economic situation, and you see some down trading that takes place.

我認為，當您回顧時，Gaurav，我們一直在向您強調，當您從歷史角度看時，當消費者面臨壓力時，他們會對當前的經濟狀況做出反應，並且您會看到一些下跌的交易發生。

I think when you look at it historically, what you see is we certainly want to give consumers a safe place to stick with Marlboro because Marlboro is the aspirational brand.

我認為，當你從歷史角度回顧時，你會發現我們當然希望為消費者提供一個安全的地方來堅持使用萬寶路，因為萬寶路是一個令人嚮往的品牌。

And you see us apply those tools.

您會看到我們運用這些工具。

I think you see with the growth in premium through time of Marlboro, that we've been applying those tools correctly.

我想你會看到，隨著萬寶路高端香菸的不斷增長，我們一直在正確地運用這些工具。

Certainly, as I highlighted, it's something that we'll continue to monitor.

當然，正如我所強調的那樣，我們會繼續監控此事。

I think the other thing is, as we saw -- we've been highlighting for you, illicit vape and that whole distribution process.

我認為另一件事是，正如我們所看到的——我們一直在向您強調非法電子煙及其整個分銷過程。

We've been highlighting that it bled over to nicotine pouch.

我們一直在強調它會滲入尼古丁袋。

And we're seeing it to begin to bleed over into cigarettes as well as we're seeing, I'll call it, white label product, but it's a product that's legal outside of the US, but is starting to bleed into the US

我們看到它開始滲透到香菸中，我們也看到，我稱之為白色標籤產品，但它是一種在美國以外合法的產品，但開始滲透到美國

Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的埃里克·塞羅塔。

Great.

偉大的。

Just wanted to circle back on the EPS guidance for 2025.

只是想回顧一下 2025 年的每股盈餘指引。

You called out one less -- well, there's obviously one less day in the first quarter.

您說少了一天——嗯，顯然第一季少了一天。

But you called out a somewhat lower tax rate and lower pension income.

但您呼籲降低稅率和退休金收入。

Are there any other items that we should think of?

我們還應該考慮其他事項嗎？

And can you help us quantify the pension income?

您能幫助我們量化退休金收入嗎？

Just trying to bridge to mid-single-digit EPS algo, given you do have a benefit from the tax rate that kind of offset by the pension income?

只是試圖銜接至中等個位數 EPS 演算法，鑑於您確實從稅率中獲得了收益，而這種收益又被退休金收入所抵消？

Yes.

是的。

I'll start this off, and then I'll ask Sal to just mention on tax rate.

我先開始這個，然後我會請 Sal 提一下稅率。

I think when you think about it, look, every time you start a year, you have puts and takes, and you see that historically through time.

我想，當你思考這個問題的時候，看，每當你開始新的一年的時候，你都會有所得和所失，而且你會隨著時間的推移從歷史角度看到這一點。

What we tried to highlight is the things that we incorporated into that range of scenarios that we look at for the EPS growth rate.

我們試圖強調的是，我們在研究每股盈餘成長率時將一系列情境納入其中。

When you think about it, that last -- that bunch shipping day is in the first quarter, but it's a total year impact.

如果你仔細想想，最後的一批運輸日是在第一季度，但它對全年都有影響。

When you think about -- we wanted to highlight from enforcement, we don't really see any impact of stepped-up enforcement in 2025.

當你思考——我們想從執法角度強調，我們實際上並沒有看到 2025 年加強執法會帶來任何影響。

We mentioned net periodic pension income.

我們提到了淨定期退休金收入。

That's really just the performance in the marketplace of the asset that's related to the pension investment.

這其實只是與退休金投資相關的資產在市場上的表現。

And then I'll let Sal speak to the tax rate.

然後我會讓薩爾談談稅率。

Yes.

是的。

And the only thing I would add to the pension is we have a very well-funded pension plan.

關於退休金我唯一想補充的是，我們有一個資金充足的退休金計劃。

So we feel really good about the management of the overall defined benefit plan.

因此，我們對整體固定收益計畫的管理感到非常滿意。

Tax rate is favorable on a year-over-year basis.

與去年同期相比，稅率較為優惠。

You're right to call that out.

您這麼說是對的。

If you look at the past few years, you have seen variability in the adjusted tax rate.

如果回顧過去幾年，你會發現調整後的稅率有變化。

It's been driven by various factors, including tax credits, changes in state taxes, and other business activities.

這是由多種因素推動的，包括稅收抵免、州稅變化和其他商業活動。

So the guidance we've provided for the tax rate is our best estimate based on the 2025 plans that we've put in place, and we'll continue to monitor it.

因此，我們提供的稅率指導是我們根據制定的 2025 年計劃做出的最佳估計，我們將繼續監控它。

You also asked about the mid-single-digit algorithm.

您也詢問了中間個位數演算法。

I would tell you, if you think about those goals for EPS, it is a compounded annual growth rate.

我想告訴你，如果你考慮每股盈餘的目標，它就是一個複合年增長率。

We knew and we expected that would be some variability year to year as you're making investments in the long-term vision and in the smoke-free product.

我們知道並且預計，由於您正在對長期願景和無菸產品進行投資，因此每年都會出現一些變化。

So we feel really good about the guidance we were able to provide today.

因此，我們對今天能夠提供的指導感到非常滿意。

Okay.

好的。

And then hoping to get some color as to what you're seeing in terms of the tobacco consumer.

然後希望能夠了解一下菸草消費者的情況。

It seems we've seen a modest pickup or a moderate pickup in sort of low-end consumer spending in the convenience channel, kind of from the depth of the summer to kind of October and then post-election.

我們似乎看到便利商店通路的低端消費者支出出現了溫和或適度的回升，這種現像大概是從盛夏到十月份，然後是選舉後。

We've seen that in a number of other categories in the channel overall.

我們在整個頻道中的許多其他類別中都看到了這種情況。

Wondering if you have any color as to what you're seeing with respect to your consumer in those channels?

您想知道您是否了解在這些管道中看到有關消費者的情況嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, there are always headwinds and tailwinds.

我的意思是，總是有逆風和順風。

I would tell you that the biggest headwind is the cumulative impact of inflation.

我想告訴你，最大的阻力是通貨膨脹的累積影響。

When you look historically, and I mentioned this earlier, the consumer -- our consumer specifically is at the lower end of the socioeconomic status.

如果你回顧歷史，正如我之前提到的，消費者——特別是我們的消費者處於社會經濟地位的較低端。

And so they react immediately to their current economic situations.

因此他們會立即對當前的經濟狀況做出反應。

If things stay steady for a period of time, they adjust to that.

如果情況在一段時間內保持穩定，他們就會適應。

It's been this cumulative impact of inflation that they haven't been able to adjust to.

正是通貨膨脹的累積影響讓他們無法適應。

And that's why we highlighted, look, we'll continue to watch the economy and that impact of cumulative inflation, if it continues to compound, we would expect our consumer to stay under pressure.

這就是為什麼我們強調，我們將繼續關注經濟和累積通膨的影響，如果它繼續加劇，我們預計我們的消費者將繼續承受壓力。

If it will moderate, we expect the consumer to be able to adjust to that through time.

如果情況有所緩和，我們預期消費者將能夠隨著時間的推移而適應。

And that's what we'll continue to watch.

我們將持續關注此事。

Emma Rumney, Reuters.

艾瑪·拉姆尼，路透社。

I wanted to hear a little bit about your expectations for policy changes under the new administration.

我想聽聽您對新政府政策變化的期望。

So first of all, on combustibles, obviously, the menthol ban has been scrapped.

首先，關於易燃物，薄荷醇禁令顯然已被取消。

What about the proposed nicotine cap?

那麼提議的尼古丁上限又如何呢？

Do you see any prospect of that being picked up by the Trump administration?

您認為川普政府有可能採取這項措施嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We'll wait and see on that.

我們將拭目以待。

We will certainly be excited to hear the outcome of that.

我們當然會很高興聽到這個結果。

I would remind you that was a proposed rule at the time.

我要提醒你，這是當時提出的一項規則。

We see it as completely technically not feasible.

我們認為這在技術上完全不可行。

And we provided detailed comments to the FDA.

並向FDA提供了詳細的意見。

And we really believe that the future should be harm reduction.

我們確實相信未來應該減少危害。

And you heard me mention in my remarks earlier, we believe the regulatory system is broken and really not functioning in the way Congress intended.

正如您剛才聽到我所提到的，我們認為監管體系已經崩潰，並沒有按照國會所希望的方式正常運作。

If you step back and think about what that regulatory system was designed to do, it was to have a third-party look at the science, authorize products and enforce against illegal products, and none of that is really happening to any scale thus far.

如果你退一步思考該監管體系的設計目的是什麼，你會發現它是為了讓第三方審查科學、授權產品並打擊非法產品，但迄今為止，這些措施尚未真正大規模實施。

So what I believe we expect from the current administration is that they will look at this and really get the agency function in the way it was intended to function.

因此，我相信我們對現任政府的期望是，他們會關注這個問題，並真正讓該機構按照其預期的方式運作。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Well, that was kind of my next question on the policy around vapes or new nicotine products and the FDA's approach.

嗯，這是我關於電子煙或新型尼古丁產品的政策以及 FDA 的做法的下一個問題。

I mean, it sounds like you think the sort of the change in administration is an opportunity to sort of push for some change.

我的意思是，聽起來你認為政府的這種改變是推動某種改變的機會。

What kind of possible scenarios do you think they're considering or are you sort of preparing for?

您認為他們正在考慮哪些可能出現的情況或正在為哪些情況做準備？

Yes.

是的。

What we would like to see is that -- very similar to what I just mentioned, which is an agency.

我們希望看到的是──與我剛才提到的非常相似，也就是一個代理商。

We know that the adult cigarette consumer, at least slightly over half of them are looking for alternatives that satisfy them.

我們知道，成年香菸消費者中至少有一半以上正在尋找令他們滿意的替代品。

And so what we need is an agency that is expedient, diligent but expedient on authorizing products and an agency that enforces against illicit products in the marketplace.

因此，我們需要一個在授權產品方面既快速、又勤勉、但又便捷的機構，以及一個在市場上打擊非法產品的機構。

I think you can go to a majority of the states across the US and see a plethora of these products that have just basically thumb their nose at the agency and the federal government and are being sold throughout the US.

我想你可以去美國大多數州看到大量這樣的產品，它們基本上是對機構和聯邦政府嗤之以鼻，但卻在美國各地銷售。

And so you need better authorization of legal products and enforcement against illegal.

因此，你需要更好地授權合法產品並打擊非法產品。

That's what we would be looking for.

這正是我們所尋找的。

We think that's sets the US up for harm reduction through time.

我們認為這將為美國長期減少危害做好準備。

Yes.

是的。

And is there a risk, though, that the administration could just say let's just scrap this PMTA process altogether if the FDA can't meet its own deadline, sort of if you've got a pending application go ahead and market kind of thing?

但是，是否有這樣的風險：如果FDA 無法在規定的期限內完成任務，那麼政府可能會說，讓我們完全放棄這個PMTA 流程，就好像你有一份待處理的申請，那麼就繼續將產品推向市場一樣？

Is that a threat?

這是威脅嗎？

We would certainly prefer, as we supported the FDA all along, passing of it as it was intended is that you have a third party really regulate the marketplace.

由於我們一直支持 FDA，因此我們當然更希望該法案的通過能夠由第三方來真正地監管市場。

So that it's -- you have manufacturing standards, you have a science standards for legitimate products in the marketplace.

這樣，你就有了製造標準，有了針對市場上合法產品的科學標準。

And so we would continue to want to see the FDA have authority over nicotine products in the marketplace, so it doesn't turn into what we were seeing in the e-vapor market early on, which is a Wild, Wild West and continues because of lack of enforcement.

因此，我們將繼續希望 FDA 對市場上的尼古丁產品擁有權威，這樣它就不會變成我們早期在電子煙市場看到的那樣，這是一個狂野的西部，而且會繼續下去，因為缺乏執行。

We just need an agency to function as it was proposed to function.

我們只是需要一個按照提議的方式運作的機構。

Okay.

好的。

And just, sorry, lastly, the other sort of policy uncertainty is around tariffs, which I assume would impact Altria's vaping business mostly, although correct me if I'm wrong on that point?

最後，抱歉，另一種政策不確定性與關稅有關，我認為這將對奧馳亞的電子煙業務產生最大影響，但如果我在這一點上錯了，請糾正我？

It would be great to know if there would be an impact there, how you might be able to mitigate it?

如果知道是否會有影響，如何才能減輕影響，那就太好了？

Would it be through price?

是透過價格來體現嗎？

Or could you do anything in terms of shifting production?

或者你能就轉移生產做些什麼嗎？

It'd just be great to know what options you're considering if tariffs do come into force.

如果關稅真的生效，了解您正在考慮哪些選擇就太好了。

Yes.

是的。

There has been a lot of tariffs mentioned in the media.

媒體已經多次提到關稅問題。

I haven't seen any pass.

我沒看到任何通行證。

I think if you're referring to e-vapor, we've heard some comments where everything is sourced out of China.

我想，如果您指的是電子蒸汽煙，我們聽到一些評論說所有產品都來自中國。

We would have limited impact to any tariffs that were put in place on China.

我們對針對中國徵收的任何關稅的影響都是有限的。

Okay.

好的。

And sorry, could you explain why?

抱歉，您能解釋一下原因嗎？

Because I thought NJOY was produced in China, but again, I might be wrong.

因為我以為NJOY是在中國生產的，但是，我可能錯了。

No, we actually have alternative production facilities that we utilize that are outside of China.

不，實際上，我們在中國境外有替代生產設施。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Is that in like, Indonesia?

那是在印尼嗎？

Yes, I'm not going to get into specifics for competitive reasons, but we have other manufacturing facilities around the globe.

是的，出於競爭原因，我不會談論具體細節，但我們在全球還有其他製造工廠。

And there appears to be no further questions at this time.

目前似乎沒有其他問題。

I would like to turn the call back over to Mac Livingston for any closing remarks.

我想將電話轉回給 Mac Livingston 來做最後演講。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, everybody, again, for joining us, and have a great day.

再次感謝大家的參與，祝福大家有愉快的一天。

This concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect at any time.

您可以隨時斷開連線。