奧馳亞 (MO) 2013 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group third-quarter 2013 earnings conference call.

Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session.

(Operator Instructions).

Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks.

I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services.

Please go ahead, ma'am.

Thank you.

Good morning and welcome to Altria's third-quarter earnings conference call.

We are here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's Chairman and CEO; and Howard Willard, Altria's Chief Financial Officer.

This morning we will only be discussing Altria's business results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013, and we will not be discussing the status of tobacco litigation.

Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results.

And I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of our earnings release for review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

Time periods referenced in these remarks are to the relevant 2013 period, unless another year is identified.

Similarly, comparisons are to the comparable year-ago periods unless otherwise stated.

For a detailed review of Altria's business results, please review the earnings release that is available on our website, altria.com.

Altria reports its financial results in accordance with US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis, which excludes items that affect the comparability of reported results.

Descriptions of these measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings press release, and are available on our website.

Now I will turn the call over to Marty.

Thanks, Sarah.

Good morning, everyone.

In the first nine months of the year, Altria continued to execute against our long-term objectives of delivering consistent, adjusted diluted EPS growth in the range of 7% to 9%, and maintaining a strong and growing dividend.

Strong third-quarter results, driven by contributions across our businesses, helped produce adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9% for the first three quarters.

Also during the third quarter we increased our dividend by 9.1%, marking the 47th dividend increase in the last 44 years.

Overall, our businesses are on track against their full-year objectives, and Altria remains focused on creating long-term value for shareholders.

During both the quarter and the first nine months, our strategies and diverse business model continued to produce strong results.

Our tobacco operating companies grew adjusted operating companies' income behind their leading, premium tobacco brands; and our alcohol assets also delivered income growth.

Additionally, we used our capital structure to reward shareholders through share repurchases, and we expanded our buyback program.

In the smokeable product segments, PM USA balanced income growth with share gains in a competitive environment.

Higher pricing helped drive income growth in both the quarter and for the first nine months.

PM USA grew its total retail share in both periods, and held Marlboro's retail share flat versus its strong performance in both periods a year ago.

The Marlboro Black family continues to contribute to the brand success.

And later this month, PM USA will expand distribution of Marlboro Edge nationally.

Marlboro Edge offers adult smokers bold, smooth flavor.

In the third quarter, PM USA benefited from stronger shipment volume, as volume declines moderated versus the previous quarters of 2013.

PM USA's reported cigarettes shipments grew 1.2% for the third quarter.

After adjusting for calendar differences and changes in trade inventories, PM USA estimates that its third-quarter domestic cigarette shipment volume was down approximately 3%, less than the estimated 3.5% decline rate for the total cigarette category.

Also, after adjusting for trade inventory changes, PM USA estimates that both its cigarette volume and total category volume declined approximately 4% for the first nine months.

This decline rate is consistent, with the 3% to 4% category decline rate we've seen for the last couple of years.

Altria's smokeless product segment continued to perform well, as higher pricing and higher volume drove strong adjusted operating companies' income growth for both the quarter and first nine months.

USSTC grew Copenhagen and Skoal's combined volume and retail share for both reporting periods.

In addition to producing strong results in our core businesses, we are developing innovative tobacco products for adult tobacco consumers.

In August, Nu Mark introduced MarkTen e-vapor products into a lead market in Indiana, and we are pleased with the results so far.

Further, Nu Mark plans to expand distribution of MarkTen to approximately 2,000 stores across Arizona in December.

We're pleased with Altria's results for the first nine months.

Based on our performance to date and our expectations for the rest of the year, we are reaffirming Altria's guidance for 2013 full-year adjusted diluted EPS to be in a range of $2.36 to $2.41.

This represents a growth rate between 7% and 9% from an adjusted diluted EPS base of $2.21 in 2012.

I'll now turn things over to Howard, who will discuss our business results in more detail.

Thank you, Marty.

Good morning, everyone.

In the smokeable product segment, third-quarter reported operating companies' income grew by 11.5%, primarily due to higher pricing; the previously disclosed NPM arbitration panel decision; and higher reported shipment volume.

These factors were partially offset by higher promotional investments; higher resolution expense; and higher selling, general, and administrative cost, due to the timing of spending.

For the first nine months of 2013, the smokeable products segments reported operating companies' income grew by 16%, primarily due to PM USA's NPM adjustment settlement, the NPM arbitration panel decision, and higher pricing.

These factors were partially offset by lower reported shipment volume and higher resolution expense.

Excluding the special items identified in our earnings press release, adjusted operating companies' income for the smokeable product segment grew by 3.1% to approximately $1.7 billion for third quarter; and increased by 2% to approximately $4.8 billion for the first nine months.

PM USA grew its total retail share by 0.2 of a share point, to 50.7% for the third quarter; and by 0.3 of a share point, to 50.6%, for the first nine months.

Marlboro's retail share was unchanged versus both prior-year periods, at 43.7% for the quarter and 43.6% for the first nine months.

PM USA's discount share was 3.9% for both periods, up 0.3 of a share point for the third quarter, and up 0.5 of a share point for the first nine months.

L&M contributed to PM USA's discount share gains in both periods.

Cigar shipment volume increased 6% for the third quarter, and decreased 6.6% for the first nine months.

Black & Mild's retail share decreased 1.1 share points for the third quarter, and 1.6 share points for the first nine months.

Turning to the smokeless products segment, reported operating companies' income for the third quarter increased 12.6%, primarily due to higher volume, higher pricing, and 2012 restructuring charges related to the current cost reduction program.

These factors were partially offset by higher promotional investments and higher selling, general, and administrative expenses.

For the first nine months of 2013, the segments reported operating companies' income increased 13.4%, primarily due to the same factors that drove growth for the quarter, partially offset by higher promotional investments, and unfavorable mix due to the growth in products introduced in recent years at a lower popular price.

When adjusted for the special items identified in our earnings press release, the smokeless products segments operating companies' income grew 9.1% for both periods.

For the third quarter, USSTC and PM USA's combined reported domestic smokeless products shipment volume increased 9.5%, primarily due to one extra shipping day and volume growth for Copenhagen and Skoal.

For the first nine months, USSTC and PM USA's combined reported domestic smokeless products shipment volume increased 6%, due to volume growth for Copenhagen and Skoal, partially offset by declines for the other portfolio brands.

Copenhagen and Skoal's combined reported shipment volume increased 10.5% for the third quarter, and 7.2% for the first nine months.

After adjusting for an extra shipping day, trade inventory changes, and other factors, USSTC and PM USA estimate that their combined domestic smokeless products shipment volume grew approximately 4% for third quarter.

After adjusting for trade inventory changes and other factors, USSTC and PM USA estimate that their combined domestic smokeless products shipment volume grew approximately 5% for the first nine months, in line with estimated volume growth for the smokeless productss category over the 12 months ending September 30, 2013.

For the third quarter and first nine months, Copenhagen and Skoal's combined retail share increased 0.1 and 0.4 of a share point, respectively.

USSTC and PM USA's combined retail share for the third quarter and first nine months decreased 0.3 and 0.2 of a share point, respectively, as retail share losses and Skoal and other portfolio brands were mostly offset by retail share gains for Copenhagen.

Ste Michelle grew operating companies' income by 7.7% for the third quarter, due to improved premium mix and higher pricing, partially offset by higher selling, general, and administrative expenses and lower shipment volume.

For the first nine months, Ste Michelle grew operating companies' income by 15.9% due to higher shipment volume, improved premium mix, and higher pricing, partially offset by higher selling, general, and administrative expenses.

Ste Michelle's shipment volume decreased 2% for the third quarter, primarily due to changes in trade inventories.

For the first nine months, Ste Michelle's shipment volume grew 4.7%, primarily due to increased distribution of 14 Hands.

During the third quarter, Altria paid $883 million in dividends and purchased shares valued at approximately $156 million.

Marty and I will now take your questions.

While the calls are compiled, let me cover a few housekeeping items.

As a reminder, the tobacco product pricing and retail share figures are from the tracking services we introduced in the first quarter of 2013.

We will also provide you with restated figures from the third quarter of 2012, so you will be able to compare the periods.

Marlboro's price gap, versus the lowest effective priced cigarette, was 34% in the third quarter of 2013, and 35% in the third quarter of 2012.

Marlboro's net pack price in the third quarter of 2013 was $5.86, while the lowest effective price cigarette was $4.36.

For the third quarter of 2012, Marlboro's net pack price was $5.77, while the lowest effective price cigarette was $4.27.

The cigarette discount category's retail share was 25.3% for the third quarter of 2013, flat versus the third quarter of 2012.

The estimated weighted average cigarette state excise tax as of September 30, 2013, was $1.47 per pack, an increase of $0.06 per pack versus the third quarter of 2012.

This includes the $1.60 per pack increase that took effect on July 1 in Minnesota; the $1 per pack increase that took effect on July 31 in Massachusetts; and the $0.10 increase that became effective August 1 in New Hampshire.

For the third quarter of 2013, Copenhagen's retail price was $4.06, and its price gap versus the leading discount brand was approximately 36%.

For the third quarter of 2012, Copenhagen's retail price was $4.02, and its price gap versus the leading discount brand was approximately 37%.

CapEx was $49 million for the third quarter, and $90 million for the first nine months of 2013.

Ongoing depreciation and amortization was $52 million for the third quarter.

We estimate that 2013 full-year ongoing depreciation and amortization will be approximately $215 million.

Thank you for your time this morning.

Operator, do we have any questions?

(Operator Instructions).

David Adelman, Morgan Stanley.

Hello, good morning, everyone.

Marty, I was surprised in the discrete third quarter that the smokeless division margins were down, with volume and pricing up.

Can you just speak to that, what the factors were?

And there was this allusion to the timing of expenses.

What exactly was going on there?

Yes, it's just that costs come in and out of the quarter at different times, David.

I think the better number to look at the margin question is really the nine-month period.

You can see there that actually the margin for that segment is up 0.6 of a percentage point, to 42.2%.

So that's how we look at it over time.

Again, for sort of a larger reference point, if you look back to the period 2008 to 2012, as you know, the segment really grew its margin quite substantially, by more than 7 percentage points.

So, I think a quarter is really too short a period to look at this.

There's nothing particularly significant, except for timing.

Okay.

And then on e-cigarettes, I'm curious -- having MarkTen in the marketplace, what do you know now about the product, about consumers' reaction to it in terms of consumers' overall view towards e-cigarettes, that you might not have known prior to actually being in the marketplace?

Yes, that's a terrific question.

Thank you for asking that.

We're having a very successful lead market in Indiana.

It's too early, obviously, to be rummaging around, I think, in numbers; but here's what we know.

It was very enthusiastically received by the trade.

We were shooting to get coverage, as you know, across where cigarette volume is.

We've got coverage in more than 3000 stores, covering about 85% of cigarette volume.

We've gotten very good consumer feedback about the product.

And we had a learning plan -- the particulars of which I won't go into, as you might expect, for competitive reasons -- but we had several questions that we wanted to ask about our offering.

And I think the lead market, Indiana, has given us excellent insight into the consumer; into the offering we have; its competitive position; how it's being received at the trade.

And so, as our announcement says this morning, it's onto Arizona.

We've taken those learnings; we've incorporated them into our offering that we will have in Arizona.

Our aspiration there is to cover about 2000 stores, and that's how we're trying to learn our way in this emerging category.

We have new consumers and new products, and we think that's the right way forward.

But we're really pleased with what we've learned in Indiana.

Great.

Thank you very much.

Thanks for calling in, David.

Thilo Wrede, Jefferies.

Good morning, everybody.

Marty, your competitors this week have talked about the promotional environment in cigarettes being less promotional.

Is that a view that you share?

I think I would refer to what we have typically said about the segment.

It's a competitive space.

It has been competitive; it remains competitive.

I think what we have observed, obviously, as new products come in and out of the market and people try to get consumer awareness of those, you see promotions from time to time, and that's what we would observe.

So, I interpret that as that you don't see much of a change, then?

I think it's about what it has been -- which is to say, competitive.

Okay.

Given that environment, is there any opportunity for you to accelerate your price increases in smokeables?

Well, that's our strategy always, is to improve our profitability in the smokeable segment.

We look at that regularly, as you know.

That's done through a combination of factors, including list price increases and changing our promotional levels as is appropriate.

As we've discussed previously, we can do that, not necessarily on a national level.

But we can go into regions and states, and even markets, to adjust those promotional levels.

That is certainly our strategy.

We're trying to maximize income, while always making sure that Marlboro's share in particular remains in good form with some moderate momentum.

Okay.

Thanks a lot.

Thank you for calling.

Chris Growe, Stifel.

Hello, good morning.

Hello.

Just want to, first of all, on keeping though wide range of EPS for the year, and, therefore, has implications for the fourth quarter -- is there anything unique to the fourth quarter we should consider, be at the low end or the high end of the range -- anything unique to the comparisons?

There's one that I would mention, Chris, which is that there's one fewer shipping Monday in the smokeless business.

As you know, a lot of volume goes out on our Mondays, and there's one fewer of those in the fourth quarter than there was in the third quarter, so that's a factor.

We're investing, obviously, in our e-vapor business, so those are two factors I might bring to your attention.

Okay.

And I wanted to ask, with the stronger volume performance this quarter, not only for on an adjusted basis but on a reported basis, the OCI for the smokeable segment came in a little below my expectations.

So I'm just curious if, again, there was anything unique to the costs this quarter, or maybe even the phasing of the cost savings.

Any factors you can help us understand the margin performance for that division?

No.

Again, I think the best way to understand that, Chris, is that this is best understood over time.

We're trying to maximize income; we look at that over time.

If you look back at some other figures again for context, you know that they are higher in the -- 2012, I think was 4.2.

So, we are making investments in Marlboro.

We continue to roll out the Marlboro architecture.

We've improved the website.

We've got digital technology for our marketing platform now.

So I think that's the way to understand it.

Howard, you may want to say more.

Yes, I think just two comments on the third quarter.

When you look at year-over-year pricing, the price realization was affected by the comp from last year.

And then, there were more expenses in the third quarter, from a year-over-year trend perspective, than there were in the first half.

But I don't think that that is a -- particularly a change in trend.

It's just that they happen to fall more heavily in the third quarter.

And, certainly, part of that is related to the phasing in the cost reduction program.

We got more of the cost savings earlier in that program.

But I still think to go back to the nine-month number is probably more reflective of the overall trend.

Okay, that's very helpful.

If I can just one quick follow-up to the e-cigarette question that David asked about, and your comment on how you've made some changes -- some learnings from Indiana.

Was there any change to the actual physical product that you're selling in Arizona?

I'm not going to get ahead of what we're going to do in Arizona, but I can tell you that we're always looking at the product.

I think we've talked earlier that for this product, Chris, it's on the earlier part of the technology curve, probably, than the later part of the curve.

So we're consistently looking at that product to see if we can improve its acceptability to the adult tobacco consumer.

And, as you know, the way we think about going to market is through our value equation, with not just product, but price and promotions and packaging and the like.

We're looking at all of that to make sure that our total bundle and offering to the consumers is the best we can offer.

We'll have more to say about that as we get closer to December.

Okay, thank you.

Vivien Azer, Citi.

I wanted to circle back on the timing of the investment spending.

I heard you loud and clear that more investment to come on the e-vapor business.

So should part of the investment timing that we saw drive the increase in the SG&A reverse out in the fourth quarter?

Or is there more incremental spending to come in 4Q?

Well, I think, specifically, looking at our investment in e-vapor, there's been a ramp-up in the back half.

And I think probably a further ramp-up in the fourth quarter, obviously, with a new test market being opened up.

I think as it relates to expenses in the rest of the business, I think that that is more of a third-quarter phenomenon.

Okay, understood.

And on your smokeless business, it looks like maybe Copenhagen is finding its footing from a price gap perspective, kind of holding steady at 36%, and potentially finding an inflection point in the average price per tin.

Can you comment on how you view Copenhagen from a price gap perspective today, and where it can go from here?

Well, I guess I'd start again with the strategy, which is -- we're trying to make sure that Copenhagen and Skoal are growing together.

And you saw that in the numbers, both through the quarter and the nine months.

Together, they are growing their volume quite nicely.

They are growing their retail share.

Copenhagen, as you know, we put some SKUs there, Vivien, that really have taken off.

That includes products that compete at the popular price level, and it's that mix, I think, that you may be referring to.

We're pretty happy overall with Copenhagen's performance in the marketplace.

It's a very highly differentiated product, and we like its performance.

Terrific.

And one last one on the smokeless business.

It looks like Skoal's market share declines are accelerating.

And can you dive a little bit deeper into what's driving that?

Yes, I think as we've discussed previously, we've been working hard at Skoal.

That's a brand that required some further work on its positioning at the time that we acquired that brand.

We've been hard at work at Skoal.

Obviously, we started first with Copenhagen.

Copenhagen has really taken off as we have given it its SKUs and gotten it positioned correctly in the marketplace.

The strategy, I think, continues to work quite effectively because of the combination.

But there is no denying that we would like to see Skoal's share stabilized.

And we're working very hard to make sure that that happens.

Fair enough.

Thank you very much.

Bonnie Herzog, Wells Fargo.

Good morning.

Hello, Bonnie.

Hello.

In terms of Edge, you mentioned you're rolling it out nationally later this month.

So could you talk about this national rollout, relative to your recent rollout of Marlboro NXT?

And what are the similarities and potential differences of your rollout plans?

And which line do you believe has the most upside potential?

Sure.

Good question.

I think it's best understood in the context of expanding the Marlboro Black family.

And so we -- we know how we do this, right?

We look for places in the market where there may be an unmet need; where there is a place in our portfolio to look for attracting competitive smokers to our brands; Edge is but the latest of that.

It's very similar, actually, to the approach with NXT, which is, we try to put the market in front of the consumer.

We try to learn if it's successful; we try to expand it; we tried to raise awareness through some introductory pricing.

And then we try to move it on to the promotional platform that's best.

But I think it's best understood as part of the Marlboro architecture; and in this case, Marlboro Black in particular.

Okay.

And then, Marty, I'm curious how you think broadly about line extensions.

And maybe what the right number of line extensions there should be on any of your brands, and if there is a point where there might be too many extensions that could possibly hurt Marlboro's brand equity.

I just want to understand your thinking there.

It's a good question.

You always want to be thoughtful about your brand portfolio, and we examine that rigorously.

We never bring an SKU to market simply for the sake of bringing it to market.

We have to satisfy ourselves, generally speaking, that there is a consumer need for it, and that it fits in with our overall brand strategy.

And in Marlboro's case, in particular, we always want to make sure that any SKU we bring to the market is going to enhance its equity and its premiumness.

And we don't bring anything out on the Marlboro portfolio until we've gone through those filters.

And Marlboro Edge is a good example, I think, where we have satisfied ourselves.

We have high expectations for Edge to add to the overall portfolio, as well as to contributing to Marlboro's equity.

But you're right -- you have to be thoughtful about your portfolio.

And we try to do that, particularly on Marlboro, but certainly on all our brands.

Okay.

Then just my final question on MarkTen, just a bit of a follow-on question.

How did it perform, relative to your internal expectations?

And what have your repeat purchase trends been in this state?

And then I'm curious if you're seeing quite a bit of dual usage with cigarettes.

Just any other consumer trends.

Again, I think it's too early to talk about the numbers, because I just don't think that they're well developed enough to share and to be confident in them.

But I can tell you that with respect to who is trying the products in e-vapor generally, we do know that there is dual use.

And, in particular, as adult smokers try e-vapor products, we know that some of them are satisfied; others are not.

Some of them use them situationally.

We have a pretty robust -- as you might expect -- consumer research program into who adult vapers are; their patterns of use; how they may be segmenting; the products that we want.

And that's all part of our learning plan in Indiana.

And, again, for proprietary reasons, I'm not going to discuss that at this time.

But I can tell you that we've learned a lot.

It has informed our judgment about moving forward in Arizona.

And we're very excited about being able to move this platform forward.

All right, thank you.

Judy Hong, Goldman Sachs.

Thanks, good morning.

Good morning, Judy.

First, I just wanted to get clarification on the wholesale inventory level at the end of the third quarter.

I think some of your competitors have also noted a movement to really limit inventory loading in fourth quarter, ahead of the price increase speculation.

So, just wondering if you expect a similar limitation to put on wholesalers; and that potentially limits some of the volatility that we continue to see on a quarter-to-quarter basis on the inventory movement.

Well, we have an allocation program that we've had for a long time, so that's hardly anything new to us.

And with respect to the third-quarter inventory levels, I think we referenced there's a bit of a build.

But there's nothing really very significant in cigarette inventory levels from third quarter to third quarter a year ago, in our observation.

Okay.

And then a couple of questions on the e-cigarettes.

I think this is more of a broad category question.

And now that you have participation in the category, I'm just curious to your observation about the pace of category growth that you're seeing at this point versus maybe a year ago.

Sequentially, it looks like the pace of that category growth is a little bit more modest.

Just curious to what you think is driving that, and whether we really need something -- a bigger innovation, or better consumer acceptance -- to really accelerate at category growth.

And then, related to that, just in terms of how your dialogue with some of the regulators -- both at the FDA level and at the state legislators -- are evolving, as you now have a stake in the category with your product.

Thanks.

Those are all excellent questions.

Let's talk, first of all, about the category.

Obviously, the category has grown very quickly off a very low base.

Whether it will continue to grow at that trajectory, of course, no one knows yet.

We have identified, I think, the factors that are likely to be contributing to that, and we've run scenarios against these.

We talked about these previously, I think.

One is the product itself.

As the products get better and become more acceptable to adult smokers, you would expect for perhaps greater transition to the product.

Second is regulation; if they are regulated very heavily by the FDA in ways that don't encourage adult smokers to try them or switch to them, depending on what the FDA says about that, that certainly is going to have a big effect on the category growth.

And then, of course, we have to deal with excise taxes.

We have engaged with all of the stakeholders in those questions for some time now, including, I would say, before we even had entered Indiana.

We have strong views on this.

We think that the FDA should regulate on a scientific basis.

And we have been communicating with FDA regularly about both the category and our product.

The same as been true with respect to excise taxes.

I think you know, we have a robust government affairs organization.

We have a lot of experience here.

We're trying to help legislators think about the correct excise tax approach; which, in many ways, is bound up in the same question as the regulatory approach.

And so, we are fully engaged on this.

And, I think, as to how fast it grows or how slow it grows, those will be the factors in our view that will determine that, largely.

Okay, great.

Thank you.

Philippe Geason, Mitsubishi Securities.

Yes, good morning, Marty.

Thanks for taking my call.

A couple of questions as well on e-cigs, if I may.

One of your competitors stated yesterday they see e-cigs as actually a global opportunity, hence their acquisition of a player in the UK market.

Is there an understanding between yourselves and PMI as to your ability to enter that space as well globally, if that is what you would decide to do at some point in time?

Well, I think you're referring back, obviously, to the spinoff of PMI.

And there were arrangements in place, of course, dealing with the existing businesses at that time, which was cigarettes.

Obviously, e-cigarettes and e-vapor as a category -- that has emerged since that time, so the answer is no.

Okay.

And then secondly, probably still too early to tell; but based on your current read with regard to the potential of e-cigs now in the US, do you think that at some point in time this could start cannibalizing the smokeless category as well?

Well, we'll have to see, I guess.

We haven't really been -- the question usually comes in the form of whether it's going to take some volume away from cigarettes.

And what we've said there, of course, is that it's still small.

It's hard to tease that out.

We know that some adult smokers are certainly trying e-cigarettes, and so it will have some effect on volume, but you can't tease it out.

We haven't seen very much about that on smokeless, but I guess time will tell.

Okay, great.

Thanks very much, Marty.

Michael Lavery, CLSA.

Good morning.

When you're launching Marlboro Edge now, does that have any impact on the rest of how you think about discounting and promotions on the rest of Marlboro Black?

And has it allowed you to dial back any of the discounting levels on other SKUs there?

Well, Marlboro Edge is a premium product, and it's in the premium family of Marlboro.

What we try to do there is to offer introductory pricing to try to attract competitive adult smokers to it.

So that's, I think, the best way to understand that, which is it's a premium offering.

We do offer some promotions to try to get some awareness, and certainly trial.

Because we think if they try it, they'll like it.

Yes, I guess what I'm getting at is you've had some of these similar launches over the last couple of years now, and some of these ones that are one or two or more years old.

How long does introductory pricing last?

Is there some color you can give on what the discount levels are doing on these ones that have had introductory pricing?

Is that passing the baton to Marlboro Edge now?

Or do some of those still have more extended periods of an introductory pricing level?

Well, I think the way to think about it is is the total competitive set.

So you want to have introductory pricing to try to make sure that the product has awareness; that it's out there; that it's a new product, and that it's available.

We also offer -- as you grow brands -- and, as you know, in this category, brands don't grow overnight.

And particularly when you have a big share like we do in Marlboro; bigger than the next 10 brands combined.

These are trends that take place over time.

And so we have promotional plans in place for them that we evolve over time, but it's always designed to how we are doing against the competitive set of adult competitive smokers.

And that's how we think about it.

And, as you've heard us discuss many, many times, we take the long view in this business and with this segment; and we're patient.

Okay, thanks.

And then just looking at the other segment, there was the help in the -- what used to be PMCC, plus other line from what looks like an asset sale.

Can you give any sense of how much impact that might have had, or what that run rate would have looked like without that there?

Yes, we're not breaking out the other between the various contributors.

But certainly within the third quarter, you had a contribution from PMCC.

And then the other item in there is our investments in the e-vapor category.

And so that results from a combination of the two.

All right.

And then you mentioned on 4Q -- is it just one less shipping day specifically for the smokeless segment?

Or is that for everything?

Smokeless only.

Okay.

And just following up on Judy's question on the inventory, is there a build -- it looks like you might have had a modest build into -- or at the end of 3Q.

Is there much of an impact you would expect that to have on 4Q shipments to make up for it?

Yes, I don't think that -- we did have a modest build in the third quarter, and that compares to the prior year, when there was a modest drawdown in inventory.

But I wouldn't expect that it's going to have much impact on the fourth quarter, but it's too soon to tell.

I think we're going to have to see how things shake out in the latter part of the quarter.

Okay.

Thank you very much.

And at this time, we have now reached the media portion of our question-and-answer session.

Chris Burritt, Bloomberg News.

Hello, good morning.

Thanks for taking my call.

Marty, I wanted to ask about e-cigs; kind of a broader question.

As they gain popularity around the country, I'm guessing that companies are beginning to look into whether to allow vaping in the workplace.

How do you see that playing out?

And what are the factors -- FDA regulation and others -- that's going to direct or -- considering -- I'm sorry.

What factors are going to guide how vaping in the workplace plays out?

Okay, thanks for your question.

Our view on that is it should be guided by the science.

As the science develops around vaping -- and, in this case, your question really goes to the heart of, is there any risk from secondhand vaping, if you will.

And as FDA looks at all of these questions, I think that there you need a scientific and an evidence-based approach to that.

What we would like to see in the short term is that regulations should have good reason for its basis.

And in the absence of a reason, or knowledge about that, we would like obviously to have FDA to have an opportunity to do the work that's required.

So I think it will follow from the science; it will follow from the evidence.

And we are engaging with FDA and other regulators about that.

Thank you very much.

Thomas Russo, Gardner, Russo.

Hello, good morning.

Couple of questions on excise taxes.

At the cigarette excise tax level, any upcoming planned increases?

And, if not, what are the prospects for any federal excise tax activity?

Second, as for the smokeless category, where do you stand in the process of converting states from ad valorem to specific?

And what's the general level of excise taxes, looking out for the next 12 months, for the smokeless?

Okay, let me take those in turn.

Let me start with the FET.

Tom, as you know, there is a proposal that was floated in the budget.

And there is some activity trying to persuade people to get behind that.

We oppose that, as you know.

Yes.

These taxes are aggressive.

There was a huge increase in 2009.

You know, so far, there has not been a lot of traction on that.

But we're monitoring that carefully with our Federal Government Affairs Team.

Good.

Second question, Tom, was about smokeless and ad valorem.

We continue, obviously, to advocate where it's appropriate to do so, to move to weight-based.

We think that's a much fairer system.

There are opportunities that present itself in the states from time to time to advance that argument.

And we do that forcefully when we have opportunities to do that.

I would say the SET outlook generally is -- Howard, in his remarks, I think covered what we've seen so far, both with respect to -- really with respect to cigarettes.

And we're always guarded.

The state budgets are better than they were.

But they still have gaps in them, and we're watchful.

You may have seen, there was a media report on a proposal for an excise tax increase in the City of Chicago, so these things pop up from time to time.

And our approach to them is to try to get in there and advocate for why they are unfair on our adult tobacco consumers.

Good.

Thank you.

Thanks for calling.

And, presenters, there are no further questions in queue.

At this time, I would now like to turn the call back over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs for closing comments.

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