奧馳亞 (MO) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2020 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加奧馳亞集團 2020 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括奧馳亞管理層的講話和問答環節。我現在想將電話轉給奧馳亞客戶服務投資者關係副總裁 Mac Livingston 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thanks, Nicole. Good morning and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO, will discuss Altria's first quarter business results; Sal Mancuso, our CFO; and Murray Garnick, Executive Vice President and General Counsel, will join Billy in our Q&A session.

謝謝，妮可。早上好，感謝您加入我們。今天上午，奧馳亞的 CEO Billy Gifford 將討論奧馳亞的第一季度業績； Sal Mancuso，我們的首席財務官；執行副總裁兼總法律顧問 Murray Garnick 將與 Billy 一起參加我們的問答環節。

Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation and quarterly metrics are all available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor app.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，提供了我們的結果。發布、演示和季度指標均可在我們的網站 altria.com 和奧馳亞投資者應用程序上獲得。

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2019. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

在我們今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們會將結果與 2019 年同期進行比較。我們的評論包含前瞻性和警示性陳述以及對未來結果的預測。請查看今天收益發布結束時的前瞻性和警示性聲明部分，了解可能導致實際結果與預測存在重大差異的各種因素。

Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Share repurchases also depend on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles.

未來的股息支付和股票回購仍由奧馳亞董事會酌情決定。股票回購還取決於市場條件和其他因素。奧馳亞根據美國公認會計原則報告其財務業績。

Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com.

今天的電話會議將包含報告和調整後的各種運營結果。調整後的結果不包括影響與報告結果比較的特殊項目。這些非公認會計原則財務措施和對賬的描述包含在今天的收益發布和我們的網站 altria.com 上。

We're also conducting today's call from our respective remote location. As such, there may be brief delays or small technical issues during the call. We thank you in advance for your understanding.

我們也在各自的遠程位置進行今天的通話。因此，通話期間可能會出現短暫的延遲或小的技術問題。我們預先感謝您的理解。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給比利。

Thanks, Mac, and good morning, everyone. To begin, I'd like to thank you for joining us this morning, and I hope that you and your families are safe and healthy. The past 2 months have been challenging and have changed the way we live and work. Yet, our exceptional organization has risen to the challenge and demonstrated compassion, grit and resilience.

謝謝，Mac，大家早上好。首先，我要感謝您今天早上加入我們，並希望您和您的家人安全健康。過去的兩個月充滿挑戰，改變了我們的生活和工作方式。然而，我們卓越的組織已經迎接挑戰並表現出同情心、勇氣和韌性。

Over the past 2 months, I connected with our teams and their families, children and sometimes 4-legged friends who have popped up on the video frame. I'm more than impressed by the dedication and resourcefulness of our employees who are balancing significant work responsibilities with many personal commitments. We'll get through this challenging time together and grow stronger as a team because of it.

在過去的 2 個月裡，我聯繫了我們的團隊及其家人、孩子，有時還聯繫了視頻畫面中出現的四足朋友。我們員工的奉獻精神和足智多謀給我留下了深刻的印象，他們在重要的工作職責和許多個人承諾之間取得平衡。我們將一起度過這個充滿挑戰的時期，並因此而作為一個團隊變得更強大。

I'd also like to thank Howard for his leadership and dedication to Altria for nearly 30 years, and we wish him well in his retirement. It is truly an honor to lead this great company, and I believe we have a very bright future ahead of us.

我還要感謝霍華德近 30 年來對奧馳亞的領導和奉獻，我們祝愿他退休後一切順利。領導這家偉大的公司真的很榮幸，我相信我們的未來非常光明。

The first quarter brought out the best in Altria's employees as we navigated the dynamic tobacco environment and the unprecedented effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. I've been fortunate to work here for over 25 years. And in that time, I've learned that we rise together as a company to face our challenges.

第一季度，隨著我們在動態的煙草環境和 COVID-19 大流行的空前影響中航行，奧馳亞的員工表現出了最好的一面。我有幸在這里工作超過 25 年。在那段時間裡，我了解到我們作為一家公司共同崛起以應對我們的挑戰。

We've approached the challenges of COVID-19 by focusing on the health and welfare of our employees, maintaining business continuity and supporting our communities. In addition to implementing remote working and social distancing protocols, our teams are working tirelessly with critical businesses and trade partners to limit disruptions to our supply chains and distribution systems.

我們通過關注員工的健康和福利、保持業務連續性和支持我們的社區來應對 COVID-19 的挑戰。除了實施遠程工作和社交距離協議外，我們的團隊還在與關鍵企業和貿易夥伴進行不懈的合作，以限制對我們的供應鍊和分銷系統的干擾。

As you know, last month, we temporarily suspended operations at our Richmond manufacturing center after 2 of our employees tested positive for COVID-19. We have since reopened the manufacturing center under enhanced safety protocols. And currently, all of our manufacturing facilities are producing products for our adult consumers.

如您所知，上個月，在我們的 2 名員工的 COVID-19 檢測呈陽性後，我們暫時停止了列治文製造中心的運營。此後，我們根據增強的安全協議重新開放了製造中心。目前，我們所有的製造工廠都在為成年消費者生產產品。

We're also focused on supporting the communities where we live and work. We committed an initial $1 million to support COVID-19 relief efforts for our employee and grower communities. Many of our valued nonprofit partners have been hard hit by COVID-19, with disruptions to critical programs and funding streams. To help them through this time, we're providing additional flexibility with the use of grant and sponsorship dollars to support general operating needs. We're also accelerating some payments and relaxing reporting requirements, considering their stretched capacity.

我們還專注於支持我們生活和工作的社區。我們最初承諾了 100 萬美元，用於支持我們的員工和種植者社區的 COVID-19 救援工作。我們許多重要的非營利合作夥伴都受到了 COVID-19 的重創，關鍵項目和資金流中斷。為了幫助他們度過這段時間，我們提供了額外的靈活性，使用贈款和讚助資金來支持一般運營需求。考慮到它們的容量不足，我們還在加快一些付款並放寬報告要求。

Additionally, we've also donated supplies, and we're running an employee giving campaign to support 5 nonprofit organizations on the front lines of the pandemic. To date, our employees have donated more than $100,000 to this campaign. Like many other companies, we're tackling the challenges of COVID-19 with our key stakeholders in mind, and of course, that includes our investor base. Given the unprecedented circumstances, some investors may be less interested in our recent results and more focused on our outlook, but we believe it's important to discuss some of the first quarter dynamics to set the context for the balance of the year.

此外，我們還捐贈了物資，我們正在開展一項員工捐贈活動，以支持 5 個處於大流行前線的非營利組織。迄今為止，我們的員工已為該活動捐贈了超過 100,000 美元。與許多其他公司一樣，我們在應對 COVID-19 的挑戰時考慮到了我們的主要利益相關者，當然，這也包括我們的投資者基礎。鑑於前所未有的情況，一些投資者可能對我們最近的業績不太感興趣，而更關注我們的前景，但我們認為討論第一季度的一些動態以設定今年的平衡背景是很重要的。

To start, first quarter adjusted diluted EPS grew by 18.5%, driven by excellent performance from our core tobacco businesses, with double-digit adjusted OCI growth in both the smokeable and oral products segments. In February, we announced our new 10-year vision to responsibly lead the transition of adult smokers to a noncombustible future. And we discussed the strategies that will drive our vision forward related to corporate responsibility, our product portfolio and science-based policy. Today, we'll focus our remarks on our product portfolio strategies.

首先，在我們核心煙草業務的出色表現的推動下，第一季度調整後的攤薄每股收益增長了 18.5%，可吸煙和口腔產品領域的調整後 OCI 均實現了兩位數的增長。 2 月，我們宣布了新的 10 年願景，以負責任地引領成年吸煙者向不可燃未來過渡。我們討論了將推動我們與企業責任、我們的產品組合和基於科學的政策相關的願景的戰略。今天，我們將重點介紹我們的產品組合策略。

Let's begin with our combustible product strategy, which is to maximize profitability while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of noncombustible products. The smokeable products segment delivered outstanding first quarter results, growing its adjusted OCI by more than 20% and expanding its adjusted OCI margins to 55.3 percentage points. Higher pricing and higher volume more than offset higher resolution expenses to drive profit growth in the quarter. This segment also delivered strong quarterly net pricing of 9.2% due in part to its continued use of revenue growth management.

讓我們從可燃產品戰略開始，即最大限度地提高盈利能力，同時適當平衡對萬寶路的投資與為不可燃產品的增長提供資金。可吸煙產品部門在第一季度取得了出色的業績，其調整後的 OCI 增長了 20% 以上，並將其調整後的 OCI 利潤率擴大到 55.3 個百分點。更高的定價和更高的銷量足以抵消更高的分辨率費用，以推動本季度的利潤增長。該部門還實現了 9.2% 的強勁季度淨定價，部分原因是其繼續使用收入增長管理。

Our reported domestic cigarette shipment volume increased by 6.1% in the first quarter due to several factors, including increases in trade inventories, 1 extra shipping day and consumer pantry loading due to COVID-19. When adjusted for the traditional factors of trade inventories, calendar differences and other factors, our domestic cigarette volume decreased by 3.5%. However, we believe that our preliminary estimates of consumer pantry loading should be an adjusting factor to reported volumes due to its high likelihood of near-term volume payback.

我們報告的第一季度國內捲煙出貨量增長了 6.1%，原因有幾個因素，包括貿易庫存增加、1 個額外的運輸日以及由於 COVID-19 導致的消費者食品儲藏室裝載。調整貿易庫存、日曆差異等傳統因素後，國內捲煙銷量下降3.5%。然而，我們認為我們對消費者食品儲藏室裝載量的初步估計應該是對報告數量的一個調整因素，因為它很可能在短期內收回數量。

When adjusted for these traditional factors and the estimated consumer pantry loading, our domestic cigarette volume decreased by 5%. We estimate that U.S. cigarette volumes decline by 2% in the first quarter when adjusted for trade inventory movements, calendar differences and other factors. With the additional adjustment for consumer pantry loading due to COVID-19, we estimate that industry volumes decline by 3.5% in the quarter.

在對這些傳統因素和估計的消費者食品儲藏室進行調整後，我們的國內捲煙銷量下降了 5%。我們估計，經貿易庫存變動、日曆差異和其他因素調整後，第一季度美國捲菸銷量下降 2%。隨著 COVID-19 對消費者食品儲藏室裝載量的額外調整，我們估計本季度行業銷量下降 3.5%。

To estimate the impact of consumer pantry loading, we analyze shipments to retail and retail sales data and compare them against recent and historical trends. During the first few weeks of March, we observed stable retail foot traffic and elevated tobacco expenditures per transaction. However, in late March, retail foot traffic decreased significantly as stay-in-home orders were enacted, but tobacco expenditures remained high. As we said before, it's difficult to identify trends based on short time periods. This is especially true in such a fluid environment. We'll continue to monitor marketplace dynamics, and we'll update our estimates next quarter as more data becomes available.

為了估計消費者食品儲藏室裝載的影響，我們分析了零售和零售數據的出貨量，並將它們與近期和歷史趨勢進行比較。在 3 月的前幾週，我們觀察到穩定的零售客流量和每筆交易的煙草支出增加。然而，在 3 月下旬，隨著居家令的頒布，零售客流量顯著下降，但煙草支出仍居高不下。正如我們之前所說，很難根據較短的時間段來識別趨勢。在這種流動的環境中尤其如此。我們將繼續監控市場動態，隨著更多數據的可用，我們將在下個季度更新我們的估計。

We maintain our full year 2020 adjusted industry decline rate estimate of 4% to 6%, and we'll continue to monitor additional factors, including e-vapor regulatory developments and the impact of the Federal Tobacco 21 law. Marlboro's first quarter retail share of the total cigarette category was 42.8%, down 5/10 versus the prior year, but it's share of premium cigarettes remain flat versus the prior year at 56.9%.

我們將 2020 年全年調整後的行業下降率估計維持在 4% 至 6%，我們將繼續監測其他因素，包括電子蒸汽監管的發展和聯邦煙草 21 法的影響。萬寶路第一季度在總捲菸類別中的零售份額為 42.8%，比上年下降 5/10，但其在高檔捲菸中的份額與上年持平，為 56.9%。

Over the last several months, we've observed an increase in the number of aged 50 and older smokers in the cigarette category. We believe these smokers have previously switched to e-vapor products but recently returned to cigarettes due to negative publicity and regulatory and legislative developments in the e-vapor category. Based on our adult smoker demographics, smokers over the age of 50 have a greater propensity to purchase discount cigarettes than younger adult smokers.

在過去幾個月中，我們觀察到捲菸類別中 50 歲及以上的吸煙者人數有所增加。我們認為，這些吸煙者之前已經轉向電子蒸汽產品，但由於電子蒸汽類別的負面宣傳以及監管和立法的發展，最近又重新開始捲菸。根據我們的成年吸煙者人口統計數據，50 歲以上的吸煙者比年輕的成年吸煙者更傾向於購買折扣捲菸。

In the first quarter, gross shipment volumes to retail moderated for the premium and branded discount segments, declining by 1.5% and 3.8%, respectively. However, we observed a significant increase in deep discount volumes as its growth rate nearly doubled from the prior quarter to 14.4%. We believe this rapid rise in deep discount volumes is partially due to the influx of older adult smokers, returning to the cigarette category and contributed to Marlboro's first quarter retail share performance.

第一季度，高端和品牌折扣細分市場的零售總出貨量放緩，分別下降 1.5% 和 3.8%。然而，我們觀察到大幅折扣量顯著增加，因為其增長率比上一季度幾乎翻了一番，達到 14.4%。我們認為，大幅折扣量的快速增長部分是由於老年吸煙者的湧入，回歸捲菸類別，並促成了萬寶路第一季度的零售份額表現。

We're continuing to strategically prioritize investments in Marlboro and have focused our resources while maintaining its leadership position within the premium segment of the category. We believe investments behind our leading loyalty programs, such as Marlboro Rewards; and product expansions like Marlboro Bold Ice, with its innovative resell pack, best position the brand within the premium segment and maximize its long-term profit potential.

我們將繼續戰略性地優先考慮對萬寶路的投資，並集中我們的資源，同時保持其在該類別高端市場中的領導地位。我們相信我們領先的忠誠度計劃背後的投資，例如萬寶路獎勵；以及像萬寶路 Bold Ice 這樣的產品擴展，憑藉其創新的轉售包裝，使品牌在高端市場中處於最佳位置，並最大限度地提高其長期利潤潛力。

Looking at the discount segment, we saw our retail share increase, up 8/10 versus the prior year, primarily driven by the deep discount segment. We're continuing to monitor the dynamics within the discount segment, including interaction with premium brands and the impacts of adult smoker movement across tobacco categories.

在折扣部分，我們看到我們的零售份額增加，比上年增長 8/10，主要是受到深度折扣部分的推動。我們將繼續監測折扣領域的動態，包括與優質品牌的互動以及跨煙草類別的成年吸煙者流動的影響。

PM USA continues to profitably compete in the branded discount segment. In addition to its L&M brand, PM USA recently refreshed Chesterfield to serve as a complementary discount offering, focused on adult smokers aged 40 and older.

PM USA 繼續在品牌折扣領域進行有利可圖的競爭。除了其 L&M 品牌外，PM USA 最近更新了 Chesterfield 以作為補充折扣產品，專注於 40 歲及以上的成年吸煙者。

In cigars, Middleton's reported volume increased 13.1% in the first quarter, outpacing the machine-made large cigar category. We believe Middleton is the best-positioned cigar manufacturer to navigate the FDA framework. The company has already received premarket authorization for nearly 90% of current volume and expects to submit the remainder of its substantial equivalence applications by the new deadline of September 9.

在雪茄方面，米德爾頓報告的第一季度銷量增長了 13.1%，超過了機制製造的大型雪茄類別。我們相信米德爾頓是最能通過 FDA 框架的雪茄製造商。該公司已獲得近 90% 的當前數量的上市前授權，並預計將在 9 月 9 日的新截止日期前提交其餘的實質等效申請。

Let's now turn to the second product portfolio strategy and our new vision. Over the next 10 years, we will develop and expand our portfolio of FDA-authorized, noncombustible products and actively convert adult smokers to them. Currently, we're focused on the 3 most popular noncombustible platforms: oral tobacco, e-vapor and heated tobacco. We believe oral tobacco will play a significant role in adult tobacco consumer transition from cigarettes and that our unmatched portfolio will play a leading role in that transition.

現在讓我們轉向第二個產品組合戰略和我們的新願景。在接下來的 10 年中，我們將開發和擴展我們的 FDA 授權的不燃產品組合，並積極將成年吸煙者轉變為這些產品。目前，我們專注於 3 個最流行的不可燃平台：口腔煙草、電子蒸汽和加熱煙草。我們相信口腔煙草將在成年煙草消費者從捲菸轉型中發揮重要作用，我們無與倫比的產品組合將在這一轉型中發揮主導作用。

Our product offerings within the Copenhagen, Skoal and own brands provide adult tobacco consumers with a wide range of satisfying flavors and strengths within both the MST and oral nicotine pouch categories. Our oral tobacco Products segment performed exceptionally well in the first quarter, growing its adjusted OCI by over 13% and expanding its adjusted OCI margins to 73 percentage points. As a reminder, the oral tobacco segment includes our MST, snus and oral nicotine pouch products.

我們在哥本哈根、Skoal 和自有品牌中提供的產品在 MST 和口服尼古丁袋類別中為成年煙草消費者提供各種令人滿意的口味和優勢。我們的口腔煙草產品部門在第一季度表現異常出色，調整後的 OCI 增長了 13% 以上，調整後的 OCI 利潤率擴大到 73 個百分點。提醒一下，口服煙草部分包括我們的 MST、鼻煙和口服尼古丁袋產品。

Higher pricing and higher volume more than offset investments in on! to drive OCI growth for the quarter. We estimate that U.S. oral tobacco industry volumes increased 6% over the last 6 months as the rapid growth in oral nicotine pouches more than offset volume declines in MST and snus. When adjusted for estimated retail and consumer pantry loading due to COVID-19, we estimate that U.S. oral tobacco industry volumes increased by 5% over the past 6 months.

更高的定價和更高的銷量足以抵消對 on 的投資！推動本季度 OCI 增長。我們估計美國口腔煙草行業的銷量在過去 6 個月中增長了 6%，因為口腔尼古丁袋的快速增長抵消了 MST 和鼻煙銷量的下降。根據 COVID-19 對估計的零售和消費者食品儲藏室負荷進行調整後，我們估計美國口腔煙草行業的銷量在過去 6 個月中增長了 5%。

First quarter retail share for the oral tobacco segment was 50.4%, and Copenhagen continues to be the market leader with a 32.4% retail share. Segment share declined by 2.8 share points due to the continuing mix shift between oral nicotine pouches and traditional MST. We remain pleased with Copenhagen's increased profitability and the performance within the MST category.

第一季度口腔煙草細分市場的零售份額為 50.4%，哥本哈根繼續以 32.4% 的零售份額保持市場領先地位。由於口服尼古丁袋和傳統 MST 之間的持續混合變化，細分市場份額下降了 2.8 個份額點。我們仍然對哥本哈根增加的盈利能力和 MST 類別的表現感到滿意。

on! sold in over 28,000 stores at the end of the first quarter, including the top 5 convenience store chains by volume. The newly redesigned on! cans are now available for purchase, and we're enhancing its retail visibility through premium fixture space in most stores. We believe on! is a compelling proposition for both adult dippers and smokers.

在！第一季度末在超過 28,000 家門店銷售，包括銷量排名前 5 的連鎖便利店。全新重新設計！罐頭現在可供購買，我們正在通過大多數商店的優質固定空間來提高其零售知名度。我們相信！對於成年人和吸煙者來說，這都是一個令人信服的提議。

Although it's early days, we're encouraged by the momentum that on! is building at retail, and we're continuing to test several go-to-market approaches. For example, here are the results of promotional programs that we recently ran in 2 large convenience store chains in different states. In both chains, on! sales volume accelerated during the promotional period, and more importantly, maintained much of that momentum throughout the first quarter.

雖然還處於早期階段，但我們對這種勢頭感到鼓舞！正在建立零售業，我們正在繼續測試幾種進入市場的方法。例如，以下是我們最近在不同州的 2 家大型連鎖便利店運行的促銷計劃的結果。在兩條鏈中，上！促銷期間銷量加速，更重要的是，在整個第一季度保持了大部分勢頭。

To date, we believe the pace at which adult tobacco consumers are adopting on! is related to the duration of Zyn's time in market. For example, in Colorado, we expected a competitive environment as Zyn has been available since 2016. But we're quite pleased that on! has doubled its velocity within the chain in just a few short months. In North Carolina, where Zyn has only been sold for 12 months, we observed faster adoption of on! and continued momentum after the promotional period.

迄今為止，我們相信成年煙草消費者採用的速度！與 Zyn 在市場上的時間長短有關。例如，在科羅拉多州，我們預計自 2016 年以來 Zyn 就會出現競爭環境。但我們對此感到非常高興！在短短幾個月內，其在鏈內的速度翻了一番。在 Zyn 僅售出 12 個月的北卡羅來納州，我們觀察到 on! 的採用速度更快！並在促銷期後繼續保持勢頭。

We're preparing a strong PMTA submission to the FDA for the on! portfolio, and we expect to file our application in May. We're encouraged by the results of our research studies, and believe that our package of scientific evidence demonstrates that the marketing of on! is appropriate for the protection of public health. After finalizing the PMTA submission, our regulatory and science teams will pursue plans for a modified risk application for on!.

我們正在準備向 FDA 提交一份強有力的 PMTA 文件！投資組合，我們預計在五月提交我們的申請。我們對我們的研究結果感到鼓舞，並相信我們的一攬子科學證據表明 on!適合保護公眾健康。在完成 PMTA 提交後，我們的監管和科學團隊將尋求修改 on! 風險申請的計劃。

Turning to e-vapor. The category continues to remain dynamic, in light of ongoing regulatory and legislative developments. In the first quarter, total e-vapor estimated volumes declined by 12% sequentially and 10% versus the prior year. We believe the e-vapor volume decline is partially due to the ENDS guidance issued by the FDA in January, which bans all nontobacco or menthol-flavored pod products.

轉向電子蒸汽。鑑於持續的監管和立法發展，該類別繼續保持動態。第一季度，電子蒸汽總估計量環比下降 12%，與去年同期相比下降 10%。我們認為電子蒸汽量下降的部分原因是 FDA 在 1 月份發布的 ENDS 指南，該指南禁止所有非煙草或薄荷味的豆莢產品。

With our minority investment in JUUL, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission recently announced its decision to file an administrative complaint challenging the transaction. The FTC alleges that our minority investment is anticompetitive due to our decision to close the Nu Mark operating company in the fourth quarter of 2018. We intend to vigorously defend the investment. In the meantime, we're continuing to provide regulatory affairs services to JUUL, including support for their PMTA filing.

由於我們對 JUUL 的少數投資，美國聯邦貿易委員會最近宣布決定提起行政訴訟，質疑該交易。 FTC 稱，由於我們決定在 2018 年第四季度關閉 Nu Mark 運營公司，我們的少數股權投資是反競爭的。我們打算大力捍衛這項投資。與此同時，我們將繼續為 JUUL 提供監管事務服務，包括支持他們的 PMTA 申請。

In heated tobacco, we remain excited about the opportunity to introduce IQOS to U.S. adult smokers. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 outbreak has caused us to adjust our IQOS commercialization plans. We've had to temporarily close our Atlanta and Richmond stores and pause our interactive marketing efforts to limit person-to-person contact. We'll be guided by public health authorities as to when we'll reopen the stores and resume our interactive marketing approach.

在加熱煙草方面，我們仍然對有機會向美國成年吸煙者介紹 IQOS 感到興奮。不幸的是，COVID-19 的爆發導致我們調整了 IQOS 商業化計劃。我們不得不暫時關閉我們的亞特蘭大和里士滿商店，並暫停我們的互動營銷工作以限制人與人之間的接觸。我們將在公共衛生當局的指導下重新開放商店並恢復我們的互動營銷方式。

In the meantime, we're continuing our digital marketing efforts to generate awareness and drive product education through the IQOS website. Also, HeatSticks remain available for sale in more than 500 retail stores across Atlanta and Richmond, and we believe we currently have sufficient on-hand inventories.

與此同時，我們正在繼續我們的數字營銷工作，以通過 IQOS 網站提高知名度並推動產品教育。此外，HeatSticks 仍然在亞特蘭大和里士滿的 500 多家零售店出售，我們相信我們目前有足夠的庫存。

Additionally, we pushed back the Charlotte launch due to COVID-19 concerns. Our Charlotte expansion will include several enhancements from earlier launches, including a more disruptive retail look and a greater emphasis on flexible marketing units, such as pop-ups and pods. We believe our enhanced retail fixtures will aid awareness, as both the IQOS brand and its proposition of real tobacco, no ash and less odor will be prominently displayed at the point of purchase.

此外，出於對 COVID-19 的擔憂，我們推遲了夏洛特的發射。我們在夏洛特的擴張將包括早期發布的幾項改進，包括更具顛覆性的零售外觀和更加強調靈活的營銷單元，例如彈出窗口和豆莢。我們相信，我們增強的零售裝置將有助於提高知名度，因為 IQOS 品牌及其真正煙草、無灰、少氣味的主張都將在購買時突出顯示。

We're encouraged that Philip Morris International has recently submitted a supplemental PMTA for IQOS 3. This enhanced device has a more modern look and charges faster than the currently authorized 2.4 version. PMI's MRTP application for IQOS 2.4 remains pending with the FDA, and we continue to be optimistic about its authorization.

令我們感到鼓舞的是，菲利普莫里斯國際公司最近為 IQOS 3 提交了補充 PMTA。這款增強型設備的外觀更現代，充電速度也比目前授權的 2.4 版本更快。 PMI 對 IQOS 2.4 的 MRTP 申請仍在 FDA 等待中，我們繼續對其授權持樂觀態度。

Let's now discuss the performance of our adjacent alcohol and cannabis assets. The first quarter was challenging for our alcohol assets as both Ste. Michelle and our equity investment in AB InBev underperformed versus the prior year.

現在讓我們討論一下我們相鄰的酒精和大麻資產的表現。第一季度對我們的酒精資產來說是一個挑戰，因為這兩個 Ste。 Michelle 和我們對 AB InBev 的股權投資與去年相比表現不佳。

In wine, Ste. Michelle is experiencing headwinds due to evolving adult consumer preferences and increased uncertainty in the demand for its products. These dynamics have been further negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, Ste. Michelle recorded first quarter charges of $392 million, consisting of a write-down of excess wine inventory and an estimated loss on noncancelable future grape commitments. We treated these charges as special items, and they were excluded from underlying results. Ste. Michelle's first quarter adjusted OCI decreased more than 13% due to lower shipment volume, including lower on-premise sales due to COVID-19.

在葡萄酒方面，Ste。由於成人消費者偏好的不斷變化以及對其產品需求的不確定性增加，米歇爾正面臨逆風。這些動態進一步受到 COVID-19 大流行的負面影響。結果，Ste。 Michelle 記錄第一季度的費用為 3.92 億美元，其中包括對多餘葡萄酒庫存的減記以及對不可取消的未來葡萄承諾的估計損失。我們將這些費用視為特殊項目，並將它們排除在基本結果之外。聖。 Michelle 第一季度調整後的 OCI 下降超過 13%，原因是出貨量下降，包括 COVID-19 導致的本地銷售下降。

In beer, first quarter adjusted equity earnings from ABI were $190 million, down nearly 24%, representing Altria's share of ABI's fourth quarter 2019 results. As described in our press release, these results now exclude our share of ABI's mark-to-market activity, relating to certain financial instruments associated with its share-based compensation program. These amounts were previously included in our adjusted results, but beginning this quarter, we'll be treating them as special items and will be excluded from our adjusted earnings. We've recast our prior period results to reflect this change.

在啤酒方面，ABI 第一季度調整後的股本收益為 1.9 億美元，下降近 24%，代表奧馳亞在 ABI 2019 年第四季度業績中的份額。如我們的新聞稿中所述，這些結果現在不包括我們在 ABI 的按市值計價活動中的份額，這與與其基於股票的薪酬計劃相關的某些金融工具有關。這些金額之前已包含在我們的調整後業績中，但從本季度開始，我們將把它們視為特殊項目，並將被排除在我們調整後的收益之外。我們已經重鑄了前期的結果以反映這一變化。

Turning to cannabis. Cronos recently disclosed the results of its Audit Committee review of certain revenue transactions, which resulted in a financial restatement of the first 3 quarters of 2019. As a major shareholder, we expect Cronos to consistently maintain adequate internal controls and financial reporting processes. All these -- although these restatements were immaterial to us, we take these matters seriously and believe that Cronos is implementing the appropriate remedial changes. In the first quarter, we recorded an adjusted loss of $25 million related to our Cronos investment, which primarily represents our share of Cronos' fourth quarter 2019 results. We continue to believe that Cronos' asset-light strategy is prudent, given the evolving nature of the global cannabis market.

轉向大麻。 Cronos 最近披露了其審計委員會對某些收入交易的審查結果，這導致了對 2019 年前三個季度的財務重述。作為主要股東，我們預計 Cronos 將始終保持足夠的內部控制和財務報告流程。所有這些——儘管這些重述對我們來說並不重要，但我們認真對待這些問題，並相信 Cronos 正在實施適當的補救性變更。在第一季度，我們記錄了與 Cronos 投資相關的調整後虧損 2500 萬美元，這主要代表了我們在 Cronos 2019 年第四季度業績中的份額。鑑於全球大麻市場不斷變化的性質，我們仍然認為 Cronos 的輕資產戰略是謹慎的。

Finally, let's discuss capital allocation and guidance. As the quarter progress, we develop liquidity strategies to manage through the impacts of COVID-19. We're fortunate that our businesses are highly cash generative and convert income to cash at over 90%. However, we believe it was prudent to take additional actions to preserve financial flexibility in this environment.

最後，讓我們討論一下資本配置和指導。隨著季度的進展，我們制定了流動性策略以應對 COVID-19 的影響。我們很幸運，我們的業務具有很高的現金生成能力，並將收入轉化為現金的比例超過 90%。然而，我們認為在這種環境下採取額外行動以保持財務靈活性是謹慎的做法。

In the first quarter, we halted share repurchases and fully drew down our $3 billion revolving credit facility as a precautionary measure. This week, the Board rescinded our existing share repurchase program, which had a $500 million balance, to further strengthen our liquidity position. After funding today's dividend, we have approximately $2 billion of cash on hand. And for the coming quarters, we expect to maintain a higher cash balance than normal to manage through potential disruptions.

在第一季度，我們停止了股票回購，並充分提取了 30 億美元的循環信貸額度作為預防措施。本週，董事會取消了我們現有的股票回購計劃，該計劃餘額為 5 億美元，以進一步加強我們的流動性狀況。在為今天的股息提供資金後，我們手頭有大約 20 億美元的現金。在接下來的幾個季度，我們預計將保持比正常水平更高的現金餘額，以應對潛在的中斷。

Due to the uncertainties related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic recovery scenarios, we're withdrawing our 2020 full year adjusted diluted EPS guidance. Let's walk through the factors that led us to that decision. As you know, ABI has withdrawn its 2020 financial forecast due to the impacts of COVID-19. ABI is a significant contributor to our earnings, and we believe there would be misalignment to provide our financial forecast without greater clarity on ABI's expected performance.

由於與 COVID-19 大流行的影響和經濟復甦情景相關的不確定性，我們將撤銷 2020 年全年調整後的稀釋後每股收益指引。讓我們來看看導致我們做出這個決定的因素。如您所知，由於 COVID-19 的影響，ABI 撤回了其 2020 年的財務預測。 ABI 是我們收益的重要貢獻者，我們認為，如果 ABI 的預期業績沒有更明確的說明，提供我們的財務預測將會出現偏差。

From a macroeconomic perspective, we anticipate a recessionary backdrop and increased financial pressure on adult tobacco consumers. We've observed a rise in unemployment rates that we expect to persist throughout the year. There's also a wide range of economist predictions for the peak level of unemployment and economic recovery.

從宏觀經濟角度來看，我們預計經濟衰退的背景和成年煙草消費者面臨的財務壓力增加。我們觀察到失業率上升，我們預計這一趨勢將持續到全年。經濟學家對失業率和經濟復甦的峰值水平也有廣泛的預測。

For our adult tobacco consumers, we expect an increase in down-trading within both the cigarette and MST categories. The degree of down-trading will depend on several factors, including the depth and duration of higher unemployment and the severity of the COVID-19 impacts, with potential offsetting factors of lower gas prices, increased unemployment benefits and government stimulus payments. For our tobacco businesses, we believe we have the right tools to help navigate through a difficult and uncertain time as we manage the business for long-term success.

對於我們的成年煙草消費者，我們預計捲菸和 MST 類別的降價交易都會增加。下行交易的程度將取決於幾個因素，包括失業率上升的深度和持續時間以及 COVID-19 影響的嚴重程度，以及天然氣價格下降、失業救濟金增加和政府刺激支付等潛在抵消因素。對於我們的煙草業務，我們相信我們擁有正確的工具來幫助我們度過艱難和不確定的時期，因為我們管理業務以取得長期成功。

Due to the combination of these factors, we decided to withdraw our EPS guidance until the COVID-19 situation stabilizes. We're continuing to monitor the impact of the virus, and we expect to reestablish guidance at the appropriate time. As a result of withdrawing guidance for 2020, we've also withdrawn our 3-year compounded annual adjusted diluted growth objective. Please reference our earnings release and our Form 10-Q that we filed today for additional disclosures related to the business impact of COVID-19.

由於這些因素的綜合作用，我們決定在 COVID-19 局勢穩定之前撤回我們的 EPS 指導。我們將繼續監測病毒的影響，並希望在適當的時候重新建立指導。由於撤銷了對 2020 年的指導，我們還撤銷了 3 年復合年度調整後的稀釋增長目標。請參考我們今天提交的收益發布和我們的 10-Q 表格，以獲取與 COVID-19 的業務影響相關的額外披露。

Turning to dividends. We understand that our dividend is important to our investors, and it remains a top priority for us. Our objective continues to be a dividend payout ratio target of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS. Since we have withdrawn our full year EPS guidance due to the impacts of COVID-19, we wanted to provide investors with a greater transparency on how we will approach the dividend this year. For 2020, we expect to recommend a quarterly dividend rate to our Board that reflects, among other things, our strong cash generation and the strength of our balance sheet.

轉向股息。我們了解我們的股息對我們的投資者很重要，並且仍然是我們的首要任務。我們的目標仍然是股息支付率目標約為調整後稀釋每股收益的 80%。由於受 COVID-19 的影響，我們已經撤回了全年每股收益指引，因此我們希望為投資者提供更大的透明度，讓他們了解我們今年將如何處理股息。對於 2020 年，我們預計將向董事會推薦季度股息率，以反映我們強勁的現金產生和資產負債表的實力。

That concludes our remarks, and we will be happy to take your questions. Operator, do we have any questions?

我們的發言到此結束，我們很樂意回答您的問題。接線員，我們有什麼問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) The first question will come from the line of Michael Lavery for Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自 Michael Lavery 為 Piper Sandler 提出的問題。

And congrats, Billy and Sal, on your new roles.

恭喜，比利和薩爾，你們的新角色。

Yes. Good morning, Michael, and thank you for that.

是的。早上好，邁克爾，謝謝你。

Just on the category outlook, you've given some adjusted numbers on the slide and in your releases that show a steady improvement since 2Q '19. I realize you've got the 4% to 6% outlook still in place for the year. Can you give a little bit of how you're thinking about that? Obviously, that first quarter was a bit better, at least on factoring in the adjustments that would normalize it. Is it fair to say that the macro uncertainty is some of the biggest wildcard? And can you tell us, historically, when the consumers faced some pressure? What you tend to see more of? Is it a volume hit or down-trading? And to the extent it's maybe a mix of both, how do those compare to each other?

就類別前景而言，您在幻燈片和您的版本中給出了一些調整後的數字，顯示自 19 年第二季度以來穩步改善。我意識到你對今年 4% 到 6% 的展望仍然存在。你能談談你是怎麼想的嗎？顯然，第一季度要好一些，至少考慮到使其正常化的調整。可以說宏觀不確定性是最大的通配符嗎？你能告訴我們，從歷史上看，消費者何時面臨一些壓力？你更傾向於看到什麼？是成交量下跌還是下跌？在某種程度上它可能是兩者的混合，它們如何相互比較？

Yes. Great question, Michael, and thank you for the question. I think when you look at, historically, and you can look back, whether it's the 2001 recession or the 2008, 2009 recession, what you really saw was pressure on down-trading. And I think when you look at 2008, 2009, you see we have the right tools to navigate that type of environment. It really is about having the financial flexibility and some more data on where -- how much pressure the consumer is going to be under and how long. And we wanted that flexibility to be able to respond, when appropriate, to what we're seeing in the marketplace.

是的。很好的問題，邁克爾，謝謝你的問題。我認為，從歷史上看，當你回顧過去時，無論是 2001 年的經濟衰退還是 2008 年、2009 年的經濟衰退，你真正看到的是下行交易的壓力。而且我認為，當您查看 2008 年和 2009 年時，您會發現我們擁有正確的工具來駕馭這種類型的環境。這真的是關於擁有財務靈活性和更多關於哪裡的數據——消費者將承受多少壓力以及持續多長時間。我們希望這種靈活性能夠在適當的時候對我們在市場上看到的情況做出反應。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just one more on on!. Can you give a sense of -- you touched on the capacity expansion maybe having potential delays from any COVID-19 disruptions. Is that something that you're seeing already or just recognizing as a risk? And how do you think about that playing out over the course of the year?

好的。這很有幫助。然後再開一個！您能否給出一種感覺——您談到了產能擴張可能會因任何 COVID-19 中斷而導致潛在的延遲。這是您已經看到的還是只是將其視為風險？您如何看待這一年的發展？

Yes. So related to on!, we're currently at a capacity, call it, around 25 million packs. You remember, we previously stated we would be at 50 million packs by midyear and 75 million by the end of the year. We have seen a little bit of slowdown as we go through machine installation in the current COVID environment. But we're -- we've got the best engineering teams on it, and we're moving as fast as we can. I mentioned earlier, we're in 28,000 stores. We're seeing good interaction with the consumer base, both in -- with smokers and dippers. So we're extremely excited to be able to get that out and expand distribution.

是的。所以與 on! 相關，我們目前的產能，稱之為，大約 2500 萬包。你還記得，我們之前說過我們將在年中達到 5000 萬包，到年底達到 7500 萬包。在當前 COVID 環境中進行機器安裝時，我們已經看到了一些放緩。但我們 - 我們擁有最好的工程團隊，我們正在盡可能快地行動。我之前提到過，我們有 28,000 家商店。我們看到與消費者群體的良好互動，無論是吸煙者還是吸食者。因此，我們非常高興能夠將其發布並擴大發行範圍。

That's great. And just a quick follow-up on on!. You've mentioned that you've got the PMTA submissions just ready to go. Is that the existing portfolio? And if so, would you consider additional flavors or nicotine strengths as part of your PMTA submissions as well?

那太棒了。并快速跟進！您提到您已經準備好提交 PMTA。那是現有的投資組合嗎？如果是這樣，您是否也會考慮將其他口味或尼古丁強度作為您提交 PMTA 的一部分？

Murray, you want to take that one?

默里，你想拿那個嗎？

Sure. Our PMTA submission that we're planning on filing in May covers our existing portfolio of products, both strength and flavors. At this time, it's going to be limited to that. But as time moves on, we'll consider other SKUs.

當然。我們計劃在 5 月份提交的 PMTA 提交涵蓋了我們現有的產品組合，包括強度和口味。在這個時候，它將僅限於此。但隨著時間的推移，我們會考慮其他 SKU。

The next question will come from the line of Vivien Azer from Cowen.

下一個問題將來自 Cowen 的 Vivien Azer。

I'll echo the congratulations that Michael offered. Congrats on your new roles.

我會回應邁克爾提供的祝賀。恭喜你的新角色。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

You bet. So Billy, can we just talk about the outlook from a macro perspective? So I think it seems prudent that you're anticipating down-trading, given the drop of numbers that we're seeing, including this morning. If we you look back to the financial crisis, are you thinking about that as a potential analog? And if so, can you just remind us how price elasticity has evolved? Obviously, there was a very disruptive FET so maybe it's not perfectly comparable, but any color on how you're thinking about that?

你打賭。那麼比利，我們可以從宏觀角度談談前景嗎？因此，鑑於我們所看到的數字下降，包括今天早上，我認為你預計下跌交易似乎是謹慎的。如果我們回顧金融危機，您是否認為這是一個潛在的類比？如果是這樣，您能否提醒我們價格彈性是如何演變的？顯然，有一個非常具有破壞性的 FET，所以也許它不是完全可比的，但是你是怎麼想的？

Sure. Thanks for the question. And you're right, it is a bit different this time, but we do take our learnings from the 2008, 2009. I think if you look back at the last -- what we -- everybody refers to as the Great Recession, you did see the FET increase that you mentioned as well as you saw gas prices at a different base in that economic downturn. The other thing is you see unemployment -- and benefits have been enhanced as well as government stimulus pretty quick into the market this time. And even the segments of the employee base that have been impacted is slightly different from the last downturn.

當然。謝謝你的問題。你說得對，這次有點不同，但我們確實從 2008 年和 2009 年吸取了教訓。我想如果你回顧最後一次——我們——每個人都稱之為大衰退，你確實看到了您提到的 FET 增加，並且您看到在經濟低迷時期汽油價格處於不同的基數。另一件事是你會看到失業——這一次，福利得到了提高，政府的刺激措施也很快進入了市場。甚至受到影響的員工群體也與上次經濟衰退略有不同。

So when we look at it, we feel like we have the right tools in place, and we've even enhanced those tools, Vivien. As you remember, we've been talking about our advanced analytics. So we had the tools in place and now they're supported by our advanced analytics. So it's really a matter of having some more data of how our consumers could be impacted and then applying those tools at the appropriate time.

所以當我們看到它時，我們覺得我們擁有正確的工具，我們甚至增強了這些工具，Vivien。您還記得，我們一直在談論我們的高級分析。因此，我們擁有了適當的工具，現在它們得到了我們高級分析的支持。因此，這實際上是一個關於我們的消費者如何受到影響的更多數據，然後在適當的時候應用這些工具的問題。

That's helpful. Just to follow-up on that, though. Like -- so underpinning some of the scenarios that you guys are contemplating, are you considering that price elasticities might degrade in this backdrop?

這很有幫助。不過，只是為了跟進。就像——作為你們正在考慮的一些情景的基礎，你們是否考慮在這種背景下價格彈性可能會下降？

Yes. Thank you for following up. On price elasticity, as we told you before, that has held for decades. Sometimes you see slight disruptions if it's related to an FET in a given state, but we -- and then it recovers. And so we haven't seen anything -- and we peel back underneath that price elasticity and haven't seen anything from a trend break that would lead us to have anything different.

是的。感謝您跟進。關於價格彈性，正如我們之前告訴過你的，這種情況已經持續了幾十年。有時，如果它與給定狀態下的 FET 相關，您會看到輕微的中斷，但我們 - 然後它會恢復。所以我們沒有看到任何東西——我們從價格彈性之下剝離，沒有看到任何會導致我們有任何不同的趨勢突破。

Okay. That's helpful. And just 1 more for me. Can we talk about Marlboro's Special Blend? And I know you guys haven't historically disclosed how big of a mix piece of the business it is. But like any color on how you're thinking about using Special Blends to defend the overall Marlboro market share against a down-trading environment?

好的。這很有幫助。對我來說只有 1 個。我們能談談萬寶路的特殊混合嗎？而且我知道你們從來沒有透露過它在業務中的規模有多大。但是，就像任何關於您如何考慮使用特殊混合物來保護萬寶路整體市場份額以抵禦下跌交易環境的顏色一樣？

Yes. Thank you. I won't speak to specifics, but that is one of the tools in our tool bag to be able to pull out. You remember we used that, to a large extent, in the previous downturn. And what we saw was if the consumer was under pressure, they really wanted to smoke Marlboro. We wanted to give them a safe landing place. And we think it worked extremely well because, through time, we've been able to close, if you will, the gap between Special Blends and Marlboro Mainline. And so that's certainly a tool in our tool bag that we have at our disposal.

是的。謝謝你。我不會說具體細節，但這是我們工具包中能夠拉出的工具之一。你記得我們在很大程度上使用了它，在之前的經濟衰退中。我們看到的是，如果消費者有壓力，他們真的很想抽萬寶路。我們想給他們一個安全的著陸點。我們認為它的效果非常好，因為隨著時間的推移，我們已經能夠縮小（如果您願意的話）Special Blends 和 Marlboro Mainline 之間的差距。因此，這肯定是我們工具包中可供我們使用的工具。

Our next question will come from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Bonnie Herzog。

Congratulations from me, too.

我也祝賀你。

Thanks.

謝謝。

You're welcome. I wanted see if we could get a sense from you how things are trending in April, so far? I mean you've walked through the different weeks in March for us, but I'd be curious to hear if you're certainly starting to see a lot of the, I guess, deloading or pantry depleting from the consumer. It's sort of what I'm hearing and seeing. We're seeing it in the Nielsen results. So any more color on that in April, so far, would be helpful.

不客氣。我想看看我們能不能從你那裡了解一下，到目前為止，四月份的情況如何？我的意思是你已經為我們走過了三月份的不同幾週，但我很想知道你是否確實開始看到很多，我猜，卸貨或食品儲藏室從消費者身上耗盡。這就是我所聽到和看到的。我們在尼爾森的結果中看到了這一點。因此，到目前為止，四月份的任何更多顏色都會有所幫助。

Sure. You're exactly right. The early data in April would indicate payback of some of that pantry loading. And I think, while it's still early yet, the data would support our estimate of the consumer pantry loading that we put forward in the first quarter, but we'll continue to monitor it. Two things that we're watching is really how that will impact our shipments as both retailers and wholesalers make decisions of their inventory levels they want to carry through the remainder of the year.

當然。你完全正確。 4 月份的早期數據將顯示部分食品儲藏室裝載的回報。而且我認為，雖然現在還為時過早，但數據將支持我們對第一季度提出的消費者食品儲藏室裝載量的估計，但我們將繼續對其進行監測。我們正在關注的兩件事是這將如何影響我們的出貨量，因為零售商和批發商都在決定他們希望在今年剩餘時間內保持的庫存水平。

And I think, also, it's important to remember that we've seen some shopping behavior change with our consumer. Our consumers used to go and shop either every day or every other day. And we've seen it and heard from our large retailers that they've seen the consumer shopping more on a weekly basis. And I think we'll have to see if that continues for a period of time or whether that, as restrictions are lifted, goes back to more of a normal situation.

而且我認為，重要的是要記住，我們已經看到消費者的一些購物行為發生了變化。我們的消費者過去每天或隔天去購物。我們已經看到並從我們的大型零售商那裡聽說，他們看到消費者每週購物的次數更多。我認為我們必須看看這種情況是否會持續一段時間，或者隨著限制的解除，這種情況是否會回到更正常的情況。

Okay. That makes sense. And then I wanted to ask about Marlboro, just maybe hoping for just a little bit more color as to why we're seeing some retail share loss and really trying to get a sense from you of how worried you might be about this. I know you certainly touched on the older vaper returning to the category, not necessarily going to Marlboro.

好的。這就說得通了。然後我想問一下萬寶路，也許只是希望稍微了解一下為什麼我們會看到一些零售份額損失，並真正想從你那裡了解你可能對此有多擔心。我知道你肯定提到了回到這個類別的老電子煙，不一定要去萬寶路。

So first, on that, I'm curious, do you think we're going to continue to see more of those older vapers returning to smoking? Or just wondering if most of that has already happened? And then is there anything else that you're seeing within the Marlboro franchise? And maybe what you're doing to kind of shore that up and then improve the brand equity, i.e., for instance, I think the loyalty program that you have, I think you've maybe increased that and moved that forward given everything going on. So anything you can share with us would be helpful.

所以首先，我很好奇，你認為我們會繼續看到更多的老電子煙用戶重新吸煙嗎？或者只是想知道其中大部分是否已經發生？然後你在萬寶路特許經營中看到了什麼？也許你正在做的事情是為了支持這一點，然後提高品牌資產，例如，我認為你擁有的忠誠度計劃，我認為你可能已經增加了這一點並推動了這一點，因為一切都在發生.因此，您可以與我們分享的任何內容都會有所幫助。

Sure. I think when you think about Marlboro and really -- we really believe it's related to that consumer movement across categories. And so as we saw those older -- especially that 50 and older consumer move back from e-vapor into cigarettes, we know from demographics that, that consumer has a higher propensity for discount brands. And so that's why we wanted to show -- you see Marlboro's rock steady is its share of premium. It is something that we'll continue to monitor and make sure there's nothing else there, but we believe that's what occurred -- the majority of that in the first quarter.

當然。我認為當你想到萬寶路時，我們真的相信它與跨類別的消費者運動有關。因此，當我們看到那些年長者——尤其是 50 歲及以上的消費者從電子煙轉向捲菸時，我們從人口統計數據中得知，消費者對折扣品牌的傾向更高。這就是我們想要展示的原因——你看到萬寶路的堅如磐石是它的溢價份額。這是我們將繼續監控並確保沒有其他東西的事情，但我們相信這就是發生的事情——大部分發生在第一季度。

From the standpoint of the tools, I'm not going to get into specific tools. I did mention, look, we do have Marlboro Bold Ice out in the marketplace. We believe that, with the innovative resale pack, it's important to keep the brand relevant and fresh for consumers in the marketplace. And then you mentioned the loyalty program. And so we're going to continue to invest in the brand behind the things that we see work.

從工具的角度來看，我不打算討論具體的工具。我確實提到過，看，我們確實在市場上有萬寶路 Bold Ice。我們相信，借助創新的轉售包裝，保持品牌對市場消費者的相關性和新鮮感非常重要。然後你提到了忠誠度計劃。因此，我們將繼續投資於我們認為有效的事物背後的品牌。

And 1 final question from me, if I may. A lot of companies right now in this environment are talking about their ability to kind of lower spending or pull back on some of the spend, and I'm just trying to think about your business.

如果可以的話，我還有最後一個問題。現在在這種環境下，很多公司都在談論他們降低支出或縮減部分支出的能力，而我只是想考慮一下你的業務。

You mentioned what's going on with IQOS and understood that a lot of that is being delayed given this environment. So maybe any of the planned spending that you had for IQOS this year, are you redeploying it potentially into your smokeable business? Or is that something that you're leaving as a cushion, possibly letting it flow to the bottom line? Just trying to get a sense of your spending levels this year in light of everything?

您提到了 IQOS 的情況，並了解在這種環境下，很多事情都被推遲了。因此，也許您今年為 IQOS 進行的任何計劃支出，您是否可能將其重新部署到您的可吸煙業務中？或者是你作為緩衝留下的東西，可能讓它流到底線？只是想了解一下你今年的支出水平嗎？

Yes, sure. Yes, it's a great question, Bonnie. I mean we've certainly seen some with everybody, all of our salaried workforce, absent those that need to be in the labs or need to be supporting manufacturing or working from home. And so when you're working from home, naturally, there is some favorability that would fall out, and so we're seeing some of that.

是的，當然。是的，這是一個很好的問題，邦妮。我的意思是，我們當然已經看到了一些人，我們所有的受薪勞動力，沒有那些需要在實驗室或需要支持製造或在家工作的人。因此，當您在家工作時，自然會有一些好感度下降，因此我們看到了其中的一些。

We feel like, as we entered the year, we're very excited about both the opportunity with IQOS and on!. And we felt like we had the right investment plan behind those. So certainly, as we progress through the year, we may see some favorability until we can get the restrictions, if you will, lifted, and the economy start getting back, to consumers being able to move around. But we feel good about the level of investment and are excited about the prospects related to those.

我們覺得，當我們進入這一年時，我們對 IQOS 和 on! 的機會都感到非常興奮。我們覺得我們背後有正確的投資計劃。因此，當然，隨著這一年的進展，我們可能會看到一些有利因素，直到我們能夠解除限制（如果你願意的話），並且經濟開始恢復，讓消費者能夠四處走動。但我們對投資水平感覺良好，並對與之相關的前景感到興奮。

Good morning, Bonnie, this is Sal. I would just remind us that we went through a major restructuring last year, where we eliminated some headcount, reduced costs. So we feel like we have a pretty efficient operation now and that last year's restructure was very helpful in that.

早上好，邦妮，我是薩爾。我只想提醒我們，去年我們進行了重大重組，我們裁減了一些員工，降低了成本。所以我們覺得我們現在的運營效率很高，去年的重組對此非常有幫助。

The next question will come from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.

下一個問題將來自 Chris Growe 和 Stifel。

And I'll add my congratulations, both Billy and Sal. Look forward to working with you.

我要祝賀比利和薩爾。期待與您合作。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Yes. Let me ask, first of all, if I could. As you look at the first quarter, I think what's more difficult for us to model is what happens in the second quarter. So it's sort of like in terms of how much upside do you think you saw, say, the EPS in the first quarter?

是的。讓我先問一下，我是否可以。當您查看第一季度時，我認為對我們來說更難建模的是第二季度發生的情況。所以這有點像你認為你看到第一季度的每股收益有多大的上漲空間？

And I guess, is it a reasonable operating assumption at this point that you'd give that back in the second quarter? Is that purely determined on much inventory is actually in this system, be it the consumer or retailer? And then how much is given back in Q2? Is that the main determining factor for the second quarter?

而且我想，在這一點上，您會在第二季度將其歸還，這是一個合理的運營假設嗎？是否純粹取決於大量庫存實際上是在這個系統中，無論是消費者還是零售商？然後在第二季度返還多少？這是第二季度的主要決定因素嗎？

Yes. That will be it, Chris. You nailed it. And it really will be how both retail and wholesalers decide to manage that inventory in the current environment and how long this environment lasts. And yes, I mentioned earlier, we did see some of the consumer payback in the early data in April. We'll just have to see if they go back to a more normal shopping behavior or if they stay on this, I call it, staggered or less frequent shopping occasions and reload some of their -- just some of the payback that we've seen. So you're right, it's a matter of having some more data because it's so early yet in this process, but having some more data of both the inventory levels as well as what the consumer's shopping behavior is going to be.

是的。就是這樣，克里斯。你搞定了。這將取決於零售和批發商如何決定在當前環境中管理庫存以及這種環境持續多長時間。是的，我之前提到過，我們確實在 4 月份的早期數據中看到了一些消費者的回報。我們只需要看看他們是否會恢復到更正常的購物行為，或者他們是否繼續這樣做，我稱之為交錯或不那麼頻繁的購物場合，並重新加載他們的一些 - 只是我們已經獲得的一些回報見過。所以你是對的，這是一個擁有更多數據的問題，因為它在這個過程中還很早，但是擁有更多關於庫存水平以及消費者購物行為的數據。

In a scenario where the consumer goes once a week instead of once every day or every other day, do they consume less than that period in a normal, as best you can tell?

在消費者每週去一次而不是每天或每隔一天一次的情況下，他們的消費是否比正常情況下的那個時期少，你能說得清楚嗎？

Yes. The data we have, we haven't seen where we've seen any breaking trends. But again, it's so early yet, but we haven't seen anything that would indicate any change in behavior.

是的。我們擁有的數據，我們還沒有看到我們看到任何突破趨勢的地方。但同樣，現在還為時過早，但我們還沒有看到任何表明行為發生任何變化的東西。

And then just to understand, if I think about the growth you had in volume, if there's a roughly -- it looks like a sort of a 4-point contribution from inventory being up year-over-year. You got a couple of points and less shipping day. It suggests somewhere around 5 points or so of sort of consumer and retailer inventory hoarding. Would that be a reasonable proxy for the amount of sort of volume that has to come out in the second quarter, theoretically, or over the rest of the year?

然後只是為了理解，如果我考慮一下你在數量上的增長，如果有一個粗略的 - 它看起來像是庫存同比增長的 4 點貢獻。你得到了幾分和更少的運輸天數。它暗示了大約 5 個點左右的消費者和零售商庫存囤積。從理論上講，這是否可以合理地代表第二季度或今年剩餘時間必須出現的交易量？

I think that's a fair estimate. It might be just a bit more than that. But again, it's going to depend on how quickly it comes out, of how quickly the environment shifts back from the environment we're in to more of a -- whether you call it a new normal or normal environment for the -- both the retailers, wholesalers and the consumer.

我認為這是一個公平的估計。可能還不止這些。但同樣，這將取決於它出現的速度，以及環境從我們所處的環境轉變回更多的環境的速度——無論你稱之為新的正常環境還是正常環境——兩者零售商、批發商和消費者。

The next question comes from the line of Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自於 RBC Capital Markets 的 Nik Modi。

Billy, Sal, congrats from me as well.

比利，薩爾，我也祝賀你。

Thanks, Nik.

謝謝，尼克。

You bet. A couple of questions. First, I mean, I can appreciate the visibility is low, right? It is for everyone. But is there anything that you see on the horizon that would compromise your ability to deliver within your existing targets? I'm just trying to think of, are there costs that you see that we may not see right now? Is there -- I understand the demand dynamics between March and April. But if we just went into a regular recession, let's just assume COVID-19 never happened and we were in a recession, would you have pulled your targets? Or lowered your targets?

你打賭。幾個問題。首先，我的意思是，我可以理解能見度很低，對吧？它適合所有人。但是，您是否會看到任何會損害您在現有目標範圍內實現目標的能力？我只是想一想，您是否看到了我們現在可能看不到的成本？有嗎 - 我了解 3 月至 4 月之間的需求動態。但是，如果我們只是陷入常規衰退，讓我們假設 COVID-19 從未發生過，而且我們正處於衰退之中，你會取消你的目標嗎？還是降低了目標？

Yes. I'm not going to speak to the hypothetical, Nik. I think we point to the 2 main reasons that we saw. One was related to ABI because they represent such a large portion of our earnings, and then the -- it's just the uncertainty. And you've seen probably the range of scenarios I've seen from economists about whether it's -- some are calling it a Z, some a W, some a U, some an L. And so we would like a little bit more data on that. We feel like we -- again, we have the right tools, it's just a matter of how much of and the appropriate timing of that, depending on how our consumer feels in this economy.

是的。我不會談論假設的，尼克。我認為我們指出了我們看到的兩個主要原因。一個與 ABI 有關，因為它們代表了我們收入的很大一部分，然後 - 這只是不確定性。你可能已經看到了我從經濟學家那裡看到的各種情景——有些人稱其為 Z，有些人稱其為 W，有些人稱其為 U，有些人稱其為 L。所以我們想要更多數據在那。我們覺得我們 - 再次，我們擁有正確的工具，這只是多少和適當時機的問題，這取決於我們的消費者在這個經濟中的感受。

Great. And then just talking about those tools. I mean relative to the last downturn we had in '08 and '09, you have the Marlboro Rewards program, and then you have your data intelligence tool in helping more local SKU assortment. Can you just talk about that, and how you plan to use those in an event we have a downturn or more severe downturn?

偉大的。然後只是談論這些工具。我的意思是相對於我們在 08 年和 09 年的上一次經濟低迷，你有萬寶路獎勵計劃，然後你有你的數據智能工具來幫助更多的本地 SKU 分類。你能談談這個嗎，以及你打算如何在我們經濟衰退或更嚴重的衰退中使用它們？

Sure. I think it's important to remember that the tools that we have -- so every pack of Marlboro leaves their doors at the same price. And so we have price promotions where we can buy down the price of Marlboro, let's say, Michigan and not affected in Texas. We had especially marked packs with the data analysis that we have now that we can do down to the ZIP code level.

當然。我認為重要的是要記住我們擁有的工具——所以每包萬寶路都以相同的價格離開他們的大門。所以我們有價格促銷活動，我們可以降低萬寶路的價格，比如密歇根州，德克薩斯州不受影響。我們特別標記了數據分析包，我們現在可以進行到郵政編碼級別的數據分析。

And then with our extensive database, both of our consumers and competitive consumers, we can send couponing out. With Marlboro Rewards, the highest redeemed item is coupons, and we actually appreciate that because that means there's a big sign of loyalty because they're going to come back and buy Marlboro again. So we have the tools, and now we have the data to be able to precisely put that in place in the marketplace.

然後通過我們廣泛的數據庫，我們的消費者和競爭消費者，我們可以發送優惠券。在萬寶路獎勵計劃中，兌換率最高的項目是優惠券，我們真的很感激這一點，因為這意味著忠誠度很高，因為他們會再次回來購買萬寶路。因此，我們擁有工具，現在我們擁有能夠將其準確投放市場的數據。

And the last question I had was, obviously, there's a lot of stuff going on with JUUL with the FTC's ruling. How do you guys think about your strategy there? What if they make you unwind it and you don't win in court? How do you think about reentering the traditional e-cigarette category, given that you had to get rid of MarkTen prior to the JUUL deal?

我的最後一個問題是，顯然，在 FTC 的裁決下，JUUL 發生了很多事情。你們如何看待你們在那裡的策略？如果他們讓你放鬆，但你沒有在法庭上獲勝怎麼辦？鑑於在 JUUL 交易之前您必須擺脫 MarkTen，您如何看待重新進入傳統電子菸類別？

Yes, Murray, do you want to start that from a legal standpoint? And I'll follow-up with the business side.

是的，默里，你想從法律角度開始嗎？我將跟進業務方面。

Sure. Well, as we indicated, our focus right now is in defending the transaction. The process -- the administrative process will take a number of years. So we have a hearing date set in March. Right now, it's been staid. So by the time we get through the hearing and get to the commission and then the appeal, easily, that's a process that could take 2 or 3 years. So what you're asking is -- it's pretty hypothetical.

當然。好吧，正如我們所指出的，我們現在的重點是捍衛交易。過程——行政過程將需要數年時間。因此，我們將聽證會日期定在 3 月。現在，它一直保持不變。因此，當我們通過聽證會並到達委員會，然後很容易提出上訴時，這可能需要 2 或 3 年的時間。所以你要問的是——這是非常假設的。

Yes. I think from a business standpoint, Nik, when you back up and not make it specific to JUUL, we believe the noncombustible space is going to play an important role going forward. And that's why you've seen us apply the portfolio strategy. So we have our traditional MST. We have on! now with the nicotine pouches. We have the exclusive right to IQOS in the U.S. in heat-not-burn. We do believe e-vapor will play an important role going forward. As it goes through, I'll call it a 2- to 3-year speed bump as the e-vapor manufacturers are navigating the FDA submissions and approvals and all of that process, and so we'll certainly be focused on it. But as Murray said, we feel good about our case, and we'll rigorously defend it.

是的。我認為從商業的角度來看，Nik，當你備份而不是專門針對 JUUL 時，我們相信不可燃空間將在未來發揮重要作用。這就是您看到我們應用投資組合策略的原因。所以我們有我們傳統的MST。我們有！現在有了尼古丁袋。我們在美國擁有加熱不燃燒 IQOS 的專有權。我們相信電子蒸汽將在未來發揮重要作用。隨著它的進行，我將其稱為 2 到 3 年的減速帶，因為電子蒸汽製造商正在瀏覽 FDA 的提交和批准以及所有這些過程，因此我們肯定會專注於它。但正如默里所說，我們對自己的案子感覺良好，我們將嚴格捍衛它。

Our next question is from the line of Adam Spielman with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的亞當斯皮爾曼。

Once again, congratulations from me, too.

再一次，我也祝賀你。

Thanks, Adam.

謝謝，亞當。

So can I come back to the question about the removal of the guidance? Now I think we all get why you've removed guidance with relation to ABI. That's very clear. But in the past, even in 2008, 2009, you managed to keep your guidance despite the FET increase, which is a big uncertainty. And in the past, you always used to argue that, fundamentally, you could lift prices enough to offset volume declines even if mix went against you.

那麼我可以回到關於刪除指南的問題嗎？現在我想我們都明白為什麼你刪除了與 ABI 相關的指導。這很清楚。但是在過去，即使是在 2008 年、2009 年，儘管 FET 增加了，你還是設法保持了你的指導，這是一個很大的不確定性。過去，你總是爭辯說，從根本上說，即使混合對你不利，你也可以將價格抬高到足以抵消銷量下降的程度。

And now, we're in a situation where you have actually even better tools, as you've said, to very specifically target things efficiently with your data analytics, your Marlboro Rewards and so forth. And so I'm wondering what's different now? And I'm just talking about the tobacco side of the business. About why the uncertainty in the economy now is not allowing you to sort of retain visibility and operating income, whereas in every previous recession, you have been able to do that.

而現在，正如您所說，您實際上擁有更好的工具，可以通過您的數據分析、萬寶路獎勵等非常具體地有效地針對事物。所以我想知道現在有什麼不同？我只是在談論業務的煙草方面。關於為什麼現在經濟的不確定性不允許你保持知名度和營業收入，而在之前的每一次經濟衰退中，你都能夠做到這一點。

Yes. It's a good question, Adam. And you're exactly right to point out tobacco is resilient, especially the cigarette category, and that's why we maintain that 4% to 6% volume decline. I think what's different this time is just the nature of it. It came on so fast. And it was really led to businesses not being able to operate versus the normal of you have some unemployment and then you start having some people hired back.

是的。這是個好問題，亞當。您指出煙草具有彈性是完全正確的，尤其是捲菸類別，這就是我們維持 4% 到 6% 的銷量下降的原因。我認為這次不同的是它的性質。它來得太快了。這確實導致企業無法運營，而正常情況下，你們中的一些人失業，然後你開始重新僱用一些人。

The difference here is just how long and then how deep. I mentioned earlier, and I'm sure you've seen it, Adam, the range of scenarios of how deep the unemployment is going to be, and then how long and what the recovery period would look like. It's a bit more unpredictable this time from the external factor of the recession and how it's going to impact the consumer. And that's why I believe it's a bit different.

這裡的區別是多長，多深。我之前提到過，我相信你已經看到了，亞當，失業將有多深的情景範圍，以及復蘇期的時間和長度。這次經濟衰退的外部因素以及它將如何影響消費者的情況更加難以預測。這就是為什麼我認為它有點不同。

And if I could ask a follow-up question to that. You talked about some of the tools you've got to address the problem, so more of a Special Blend, maybe promote that or make that a bigger focus, very targeted data analytics, targeted pricing. Do you think it will -- if it's -- is one of the tools to simply increase prices less in 2020 than perhaps you were planning at the start of the year before this puffing appeared?

如果我可以問一個後續問題。你談到了一些你必須解決問題的工具，所以更多的特殊混合，可能會促進或使其成為更大的焦點，非常有針對性的數據分析，有針對性的定價。你認為它是否會——如果是的話——是在 2020 年簡單地提高價格的工具之一，可能比你在這種膨脹出現之前的年初計劃的要少嗎？

Yes. I'll be careful not to talk about future pricing too much. I think everything is on the table. With any pricing decision, there are a number of factors that go into that. It's the health of the consumer. It's what these competitive pressures look like. What is the health of the brand?

是的。我會小心不要過多地談論未來的定價。我認為一切都擺在桌面上。對於任何定價決策，都有許多因素會影響到這一點。這是消費者的健康。這就是這些競爭壓力的樣子。什麼是品牌的健康？

So we don't go into the year with a pricing plan and just stick to it. We evaluate that as we progress through the year. But we certainly feel very confident about the tools we have available and now supported by the advanced analytics.

所以我們不會帶著定價計劃進入這一年，而是堅持下去。我們會隨著這一年的進展進行評估。但我們當然對我們現有的工具非常有信心，並且現在得到高級分析的支持。

Our next question is from the line of Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉考夫曼。

Congratulations, Billy and Sal, on the new roles.

祝賀 Billy 和 Sal 擔任新角色。

Thanks, Pamela.

謝謝，帕梅拉。

I was hoping that you could clarify your comments on the dividend. Should we take it as the dividend payout may exceed the 80% target this year if your reported EPS may be impacted by ABI, but that's not necessarily as significant of a contributor to your cash flow generation?

我希望你能澄清你對股息的評論。如果您報告的每股收益可能受到 ABI 的影響，我們是否應該將其視為今年的股息支付可能超過 80% 的目標，但這不一定對您的現金流產生有重要影響？

Yes. You're right. ABI, after they reset their dividend in the last period, represents a smaller portion of our free cash flow. I really think what we were trying to do is allow our investors to see -- now that we pulled full year guidance for the current year, to share with them how we would approach or recommend to the Board -- it's ultimately a Board decision, but recommend to the Board our dividend policy.

是的。你說得對。 ABI 在上一期重置股息後，僅占我們自由現金流的一小部分。我真的認為我們試圖做的是讓我們的投資者看到——既然我們取消了本年度的全年指導，與他們分享我們將如何接近或向董事會推薦——這最終是董事會的決定，但向董事會推薦我們的股息政策。

And it really is, look, our 2 tobacco businesses convert income to cash at over 90%, and that's extremely high. And then we have -- we feel like very well positioned and strong balance sheet. And so those factors will weigh into those recommendations, absent any full year guidance so that the investor base would know where we were headed with our dividends.

真的，看，我們的 2 家煙草企業將收入轉化為現金的比例超過 90%，這非常高。然後我們有 - 我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置和強大的資產負債表。因此，在沒有任何全年指導的情況下，這些因素將影響這些建議，以便投資者群知道我們的股息將走向何方。

And then given the uncertainty in ABI's outlook and their reduction in their dividend, I guess, how are you thinking about your commitment to holding on to this asset beyond the lockup expiration next year? Have there been any changes in your -- how you're thinking about maintaining the stake in both in ABI and Ste. Michelle?

然後考慮到 ABI 前景的不確定性及其股息的減少，我想，您如何看待您在明年鎖定到期後繼續持有該資產的承諾？您對維持 ABI 和 Ste 的股份的想法是否有任何變化？米歇爾？

Yes. Sal, why don't you take that?

是的。薩爾，你為什麼不拿那個？

Sure. You are right, our lockup in the ABI shares expires in 2021. And look, at that time, we'll evaluate whether it's the best use of capital and make our determination.

當然。你說得對，我們對ABI股票的鎖倉到2021年到期。你看，到時候我們會評估是否是最好的資本使用，然後下定決心。

Okay. And then, just last, are you seeing any shift in your channel mix due to people driving less, maybe a shift away from convenience stores? Does this have any implications for your sales strategy and retailer relationships? And are there any differences in profitability by channel?

好的。然後，最後，您是否看到您的渠道組合因人們開車減少而發生任何變化，也許是從便利店轉移？這對您的銷售策略和零售商關係有什麼影響嗎？不同渠道的盈利能力是否存在差異？

Yes. So from a standpoint of shifting, it's a bit too early to tell, but we haven't seen anything that would indicate any significant shift between channels. It's very important to us that both C-stores and supermarkets have remained open under the various governor executive orders by state. And so we have a good plan in place, and we'll continue with that plan. We'll certainly keep an eye on if we see anything shifting, but we haven't seen anything to note.

是的。因此，從轉變的角度來看，現在說還為時過早，但我們還沒有看到任何跡象表明渠道之間有任何重大轉變。對我們來說非常重要的是，根據各州州長的各種行政命令，C 商店和超市都保持營業。所以我們有一個很好的計劃，我們將繼續這個計劃。如果我們看到任何變化，我們當然會密切關注，但我們還沒有看到任何需要注意的地方。

Our next question will come from the line of Gaurav Jain from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

Congratulations, Billy and Sal.

恭喜，比利和薩爾。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

I have a few questions. So #1 is on Tobacco 21. We have now had 4 months of that law being implemented. So we should have some initial read and some of that impact should have already been in the numbers. So what can you share on that?

我有幾個問題。所以#1 是煙草 21。我們現在已經實施了 4 個月的該法律。因此，我們應該進行一些初步閱讀，其中一些影響應該已經體現在數字中。那麼你能分享什麼？

Yes. You're right that we -- so remember, about 50% of the population in the U.S. within jurisdictions at the middle of last year that we're already at 21 or older. Certainly, in the current environment with the COVID impact, it's a bit hard to tease out exactly what's taken place in the first quarter. As we mentioned, consumers were potentially lagging. So it's something that we'll watch, but you're right to say that some of it was in our numbers last year, and we expect to see the remainder of that come out this year.

是的。你是對的，我們 - 所以請記住，去年年中，美國約有 50% 的司法管轄區人口已經 21 歲或以上。當然，在當前受到 COVID 影響的環境中，很難準確地梳理出第一季度發生了什麼。正如我們所提到的，消費者可能落後。所以這是我們會關注的東西，但你說得對，其中一些是去年我們的數字，我們預計今年會看到剩餘的數字。

Sure. My next question is on the U.S. oral tobacco market, which the growth has accelerated per your slides and it's now plus 5%. So what has accounted for it? Is it new consumers? Or is it mainly existing consumers and cigarettes and e-cigarettes switching into oral tobacco?

當然。我的下一個問題是關於美國口腔煙草市場，根據您的幻燈片，該市場的增長已經加速，現在增長了 5%。那麼是什麼原因造成的呢？是新消費者嗎？還是主要是現有消費者和香煙和電子煙轉向口腔煙草？

Yes. I think it's a mixture of consumers shifting. You can see, we were excited about on! interacting with both cigarettes -- and the consumer group you left out were MST, traditional MST consumers. And there is the potential that e-vapor consumers as they want to stay in that alternative space. If they've loved cigarettes, and they're in the alternative space and previously it was e-vapor, that they could take it up. And so that's why we're so excited about getting that into the distribution and expanding that. So that's in the consideration set of our consumers as they're making these different choices.

是的。我認為這是消費者轉變的混合體。你可以看到，我們很興奮！與這兩種香煙互動——而您遺漏的消費者群體是 MST，傳統的 MST 消費者。電子蒸汽消費者有可能希望留在這個替代空間。如果他們喜歡香煙，並且他們在替代空間中並且以前是電子蒸汽，他們可以接受它。這就是為什麼我們對將其納入發行版並擴展它感到如此興奮的原因。所以這是我們消費者在做出這些不同選擇時的考慮因素。

My next question is on the supply chain issues. So you have 1 factory which was shut for 2 weeks. So -- and you know COVID is still with us and there could be -- anything can happen here. So how do you approach that? Like do you build excess inventory? Do you partner with some manufacturers so that there is some buffer capacity? Can you just share your thoughts on that?

我的下一個問題是關於供應鏈問題。所以你有 1 家工廠關閉了 2 週。所以——你知道 COVID 仍然在我們身邊，而且可能有——這裡可能發生任何事情。那麼你如何處理呢？比如你建立多餘的庫存嗎？您是否與一些製造商合作，以便有一些緩衝能力？你能分享一下你的想法嗎？

Sure. I had the honor of being able to run that organization for a period of time in my career. And I will tell you that, that manufacturing team is extremely strong. They had business continuity and plans in place for years. And so I always got to see them run those business continuity plans kind of in a test environment. Now I'm getting to see them execute it for real.

當然。我有幸能夠在我的職業生涯中管理該組織一段時間。我會告訴你，那個製造團隊非常強大。他們多年來一直在製定業務連續性和計劃。所以我總是看到他們在測試環境中運行那些業務連續性計劃。現在我要看到他們真正執行它。

We were able to build inventory and take the voluntary position to shut down for 2 weeks once we had a couple of cases pop up. And that was really to prevent community spread amongst the employee base, and we think that was the right decision. We've put in very enhanced protocols, so really extremely communicating to the employee base about social distancing.

一旦出現幾個案例，我們就能夠建立庫存並自願關閉 2 週。這實際上是為了防止社區在員工群中傳播，我們認為這是正確的決定。我們已經制定了非常增強的協議，因此與員工群體就社交距離進行了非常深入的溝通。

For instance, we actually have the employees go through a temperature check before they report in. We have some shift separation that takes place. So previously, if I were running the machine, I would -- the next operator would show up a little bit before so the machine could run full speed. Now we actually have separations, so I would actually bring that machine down in disciplined fashion to idle. I would leave the building, and the next operator would come in and be able to bring that back up.

例如，我們實際上讓員工在他們報到之前進行了體溫檢查。我們進行了一些輪班分離。所以以前，如果我在運行機器，我會——下一個操作員會稍早出現，這樣機器就可以全速運行。現在我們實際上有分離，所以我實際上會以有紀律的方式讓那台機器閒置。我會離開大樓，下一個操作員會進來並能夠將其恢復。

We think what that does for us is -- if you -- I think you've been in the MC or manufacturing center. If you really think about it, it's smaller factories within a very large complex. And so now that we've restricted some of the movement around the manufacturing center, if we should have the unfortunate incidence of another case popping up, we would be quarantining one shift of employees related to that one bay. We would do extensive cleaning, and then we would be able to run the next 2 shifts in that bay.

我們認為這對我們來說是——如果你——我認為你一直在 MC 或製造中心。如果你仔細想想，它是一個非常大的綜合體中的小工廠。因此，既然我們已經限制了製造中心周圍的一些活動，如果我們應該不幸發生另一起案件，我們將隔離與那個海灣相關的一個員工班次。我們會做大量的清潔工作，然後我們就可以在那個隔間運行接下來的 2 個班次。

So with the enhanced protocols we put in place, we believe we've greatly mitigated the need to have to shut down the entire facility as we move forward into the future. I would say, as we start to bring it back up, again, with the strength of our manufacturing team, we've already started rebuilding inventories.

因此，通過我們實施的增強型協議，我們相信我們已經大大減少了在我們邁向未來時必須關閉整個設施的需要。我想說，隨著我們再次開始恢復生產，憑藉我們製造團隊的力量，我們已經開始重建庫存。

And sir, if I can sneak in 1 last question. So we had this news yesterday that JUUL is restructuring its operations, and you have a number of lawsuits against it. So if you were to need more capital to settle some of these lawsuits, would you be contributing more to maintain your equity stake?

先生，如果我可以偷偷回答最後一個問題。所以昨天我們有這個消息，JUUL 正在重組其業務，你有很多針對它的訴訟。因此，如果您需要更多資金來解決其中一些訴訟，您是否會為維持您的股權而做出更多貢獻？

Yes. I think that's something that we'll have to decide if we're faced with that. Look, we'll go through our normal M&A analysis and make the decision at the appropriate time. And that's the way we'll approach anything like in that realm of possibility.

是的。我認為這是我們必須決定的事情，如果我們面臨這個問題。看，我們將進行正常的併購分析，並在適當的時候做出決定。這就是我們在這種可能性領域中處理任何事情的方式。

Our next question will come from the line of Robert Rampton with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的羅伯特·蘭普頓（Robert Rampton）。

Congratulations to you both from me as well.

我也祝賀你們倆。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I've got 3 questions on my end. The first is that you flagged that macro factors were a 20 bps tailwind to volumes in 2019. Could you help us understand what the range of outcomes -- scenarios you're thinking about for that one in 2020 is?

我有3個問題。首先是您指出宏觀因素是 2019 年成交量的 20 個基點。您能否幫助我們了解結果的範圍——您在 2020 年考慮的情景是什麼？

Yes. We -- yes, I'm not going to share that at this point in time just because the ranges are so wide. As I saw, and I'm sure you're seeing, there's a number of predictions around how this is going to impact the economy and how long it's going to last. We'll certainly try to provide transparency as we move into the future. But it's a bit early.

是的。我們——是的，我不會因為範圍太廣而在這個時間點分享它。正如我所看到的，我相信你也看到了，有許多關於這將如何影響經濟以及它將持續多長時間的預測。隨著我們走向未來，我們肯定會努力提供透明度。但這有點早了。

It's only a couple of weeks, so far, that we've really seen the unemployment numbers jump. And so it's something that we're watching. We sure are running a number of scenarios so that we'll plan about how we're going to approach those range of scenarios. But I think it's too early to really put a range around it.

到目前為止，只有幾週的時間，我們才真正看到失業人數激增。所以這是我們正在關注的事情。我們肯定會運行許多場景，以便我們計劃如何處理這些場景。但我認為現在確定一個範圍還為時過早。

Fair enough. I guess my second question is then on -- in terms of -- you commented on volume trends over April. And how is down-trading looking over April? I'm trying to understand in the context of the 3% to 4% retail price increases, how big the risk is to kind of your net revenue per stick.

很公平。我想我的第二個問題是 - 就 - 你對 4 月份的成交量趨勢發表了評論。 4 月份的下行交易情況如何？我試圖了解在零售價格上漲 3% 到 4% 的背景下，每根棍子的淨收入的風險有多大。

Yes. I think, again, it's so early in the data. I did want to share that we saw some of the payback happening. I think it's too early, really, to call a trend on or any pressure from a down-trading standpoint. But we wanted to highlight for you that we believe that's going to happen. And we think we have the right tools in place. It's just a matter of when we deploy them or if we need to deploy them, depending on as we see the pressure on the consumer and where it's necessary.

是的。我再次認為，數據還為時過早。我確實想分享我們看到了一些回報的發生。我認為，從下跌交易的角度來看，現在說趨勢或任何壓力還為時過早。但我們想向您強調，我們相信這將會發生。我們認為我們擁有合適的工具。這只是我們何時部署它們或是否需要部署它們的問題，這取決於我們對消費者的壓力以及在哪裡需要。

Okay. That makes sense. And then, sorry, my final question is just on IQOS. Any updated thoughts on how receptive you think the U.S. consumer is to the proposition?

好的。這就說得通了。然後，對不起，我的最後一個問題只是關於 IQOS。關於你認為美國消費者對這個提議的接受程度有什麼更新的想法嗎？

Yes. It's a great question. Look, we were extremely excited with what we were seeing in Atlanta and Richmond. Unfortunately, it was a bit affected by those COVID pandemic, but we're excited to get right back on it. We did delay Charlotte, as I said earlier, but we're excited with what we were seeing, and we're excited to be able to get back to it.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。看，我們對在亞特蘭大和里士滿所看到的感到非常興奮。不幸的是，它受到了那些 COVID 大流行的影響，但我們很高興能重新開始。正如我之前所說，我們確實推遲了夏洛特，但我們對我們所看到的感到興奮，我們很高興能夠回到它。

We'll really be guided by health authorities as they release the restrictions or remove some of the restrictions to be able to get back to that person-to-person interaction. We think we've learned some things. I've mentioned earlier, we really wanted to bring forward the social benefits of no ash and less odor. That was one of the things we learned in Atlanta is people who were very aware of the brand but were less aware of the social benefits. And so our team moved so quickly in analyzing that, and so we're going to bring that to light as we expand it once we get the permission to do that from government authorities.

我們真的會得到衛生當局的指導，因為他們會解除限製或取消一些限制，以便能夠恢復人與人之間的互動。我們認為我們已經學到了一些東西。前面已經提過，我們很想把無灰、少臭的社會效益發揚光大。這是我們在亞特蘭大學到的一件事，就是人們非常了解這個品牌，但對社會效益卻知之甚少。因此，我們的團隊在分析這一點時採取瞭如此迅速的行動，因此一旦我們獲得政府當局的許可，我們將在擴展它時揭露這一點。

The next question is from the line of Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Priya Ohri-Gupta。

Congratulations, Billy and Sal. We look forward to working with you on your new roles.

恭喜，比利和薩爾。我們期待在您的新角色上與您合作。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Just a quick one. So your revolver draw has helped you guys get through sort of your peak cash in use period. How should we think about the need to potentially replace those borrowings and then possibly shore up liquidity going forward, just given some of the uncertainty that you've talked about in the current environment?

只是一個快速的。因此，您的左輪手槍抽獎幫助你們度過了使用現金的高峰期。考慮到您在當前環境中談到的一些不確定性，我們應該如何考慮潛在地替代這些借款並可能支撐未來流動性的必要性？

Yes. Take that one.

是的。拿那個。

Sure, Billy. Thanks for the question. You are correct. April is a large month for cash outlays, and we drew down the full $3 billion revolver in March. Typically, we'd be in the capital markets for commercial paper. Obviously, this year was a different year. And I think the way you think about the revolver is we will continue to monitor the market and evaluate our business needs, and we'll be happy to update you at the appropriate time in terms of when we pay the revolver off.

當然，比利。謝謝你的問題。你是對的。 4 月是現金支出的大月，我們在 3 月動用了全部 30 億美元的左輪手槍。通常，我們會在資本市場上購買商業票據。顯然，今年是不同的一年。我認為您對左輪手槍的看法是，我們將繼續監控市場並評估我們的業務需求，我們很樂意在適當的時候向您更新我們何時還清左輪手槍。

As far as capital markets, I really won't get into specifics of when we access the capital markets. But again, we monitor the market. We monitor what our business needs are, and we will make the appropriate capital allocation decisions at that time.

至於資本市場，我真的不會詳細說明我們何時進入資本市場。但同樣，我們監控市場。我們監控我們的業務需求，屆時我們將做出適當的資本分配決策。

Just as a follow-up, it sounds like the CP market for Tier 2 is -- opened up substantially more recently. Could you comment on sort of how that looks in terms of meeting some of your short-term needs, and whether we should think about CP as a possible source to help replace some of those revolver borrowings? Or would long-term debt be more attractive, just as we think about the relative cost?

就像後續行動一樣，聽起來第 2 層的 CP 市場 - 最近才大幅開放。您能否就如何滿足您的一些短期需求發表評論，以及我們是否應該考慮將 CP 作為可能的來源來幫助替換一些左輪手槍借款？或者，就像我們考慮相對成本一樣，長期債務會更有吸引力嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the follow-up. Look, I really don't want to get into specific capital markets decisions. But we will monitor the economy, the markets and our business needs very closely, and we will make the appropriate decision on how we allocate our capital decisions.

是的。感謝您的跟進。聽著，我真的不想涉及具體的資本市場決策。但我們將密切關注經濟、市場和我們的業務需求，我們將就如何分配我們的資本決策做出適當的決定。

Yes. The only thing I would add, I think you're right, the CP market for Tier 2 is starting to loosen up a little bit. It's been a very recent phenomenon. It was very choppy early on. And that's why we went ahead with the utmost cautionary measures to go ahead and draw the revolver.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，我認為你是對的，Tier 2 的 CP 市場開始有點鬆動。這是最近才出現的現象。早期非常波濤洶湧。這就是為什麼我們採取了最謹慎的措施來繼續抽出左輪手槍。

Look, we're very comfortable with the CP market when it's there. But that's what the revolver was for, is to back up when CP markets dry up. And that's what we were seeing, at least in Tier 2, for quite a while through the pandemic. If it stays deep, I mean, we could certainly lay out some in the CP market if we see that it's going to remain that way for a period of time. But as Sal said, we'll make those decisions. We monitor the markets on a daily basis, and we'll make those decisions based on what we're seeing in the marketplace.

看，我們對 CP 市場非常滿意。但這就是左輪手槍的用途，是在 CP 市場枯竭時提供支持。這就是我們在大流行期間所看到的，至少在第 2 層中是這樣。如果它保持深度，我的意思是，如果我們看到它會在一段時間內保持這種狀態，我們當然可以在 CP 市場上佈局一些。但正如薩爾所說，我們將做出這些決定。我們每天監控市場，我們將根據我們在市場上看到的情況做出這些決定。

We would now like to open the conference to media questions. (Operator Instructions) We have a question from the line of Jennifer Maloney with Wall Street Journal.

我們現在想向媒體提問。 （操作員說明）我們有一個來自《華爾街日報》的 Jennifer Maloney 的問題。

I wanted to follow-up on JUUL, given the fact that they've recorded a $1 billion loss for 2019 and are planning significant staff cuts. I wonder what your thoughts are on the outlook for the company?

我想跟進 JUUL，因為他們在 2019 年錄得 10 億美元的虧損，併計劃大幅裁員。我想知道您對公司的前景有何看法？

Yes. I think from a standpoint of -- just a reminder is because we -- once we convert or make the decision to convert, we would go onto the equity method, but we choose the fair value option. So really, what gets recorded to the P&L is any impairments going forward and dividends received. So it's a bit different than what we do for ABI and Cronos, where we record their share of -- our share of their income. So I think that's just important to remember.

是的。我認為從一個角度來看 - 只是提醒一下，因為我們 - 一旦我們轉換或決定轉換，我們將採用權益法，但我們選擇公允價值期權。所以真的，記錄在損益表中的是任何未來的減值和收到的股息。所以這與我們為 ABI 和 Cronos 所做的有點不同，我們記錄他們的份額——我們在他們收入中的份額。所以我認為記住這一點很重要。

I think from the outlook of JUUL, look, we think they're making the right decisions. I think details around that are best asked of JUUL. But outside looking in, we feel like the overhead had gotten a bit ahead of itself. And we -- it's unfortunate it's in the middle of this COVID crisis, but we certainly believe the reduction in overhead and that type of spending is a smart move to make.

我認為從 JUUL 的前景來看，我們認為他們正在做出正確的決定。我認為最好向 JUUL 詢問這方面的細節。但在外面看，我們覺得開銷有點超前了。而且我們 - 不幸的是，它正處於這場 COVID 危機的中間，但我們當然相信減少管理費用和這種類型的支出是明智之舉。

And with that, we show no further audio questions at this time.

有了這個，我們目前沒有進一步的音頻問題。

All right. Thanks again for joining us. And please contact our Investor Relations team if you have any further questions. And on behalf of all of us at Altria, we hope that everyone remains safe and healthy. Thanks very much.

好的。再次感謝您加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。我們代表奧馳亞的所有人，希望每個人都保持安全和健康。非常感謝。

This does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝您的參與，並要求您斷開線路。