奧馳亞 (MO) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2019 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到奧馳亞集團 2019 年第三季度收益電話會議。

Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session.

今天的電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括奧馳亞管理層的講話和問答環節。

Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks.

電話會議上的投資界和媒體代表將能夠在準備好的發言結束後提問。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services.

我現在想把電話轉給奧馳亞客戶服務投資者關係副總裁 Mac Livingston 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thanks, Tasha.

謝謝，塔莎。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。

We're here this morning with Howard Willard, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, our CFO, to discuss Altria's 2019 Third Quarter and First 9 Months Business Results.

今天早上我們和奧馳亞的首席執行官霍華德威拉德一起來到這裡；和我們的首席財務官 Billy Gifford 討論奧馳亞 2019 年第三季度和前 9 個月的業務結果。

Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，提供了這些結果。

We're also including slides to accompany our remarks, and all this information is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor App.

我們還在我們的評論中附上了幻燈片，所有這些信息都可以在我們的網站 altria.com 上和通過 Altria Investor App 獲得。

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2018.

在我們今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們會將結果與 2018 年同期進行比較。

Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results.

我們的評論包含前瞻性和警示性陳述以及對未來結果的預測。

Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

請查看今天收益發布末尾的前瞻性和警示性聲明部分，了解可能導致實際結果與預測產生重大差異的各種因素。

Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board.

未來的股息支付和股票回購仍由奧馳亞董事會自行決定。

Share repurchases also depend on marketplace conditions and other factors.

股票回購還取決於市場狀況和其他因素。

Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles.

奧馳亞根據美國公認的會計原則報告其財務業績。

Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis.

今天的電話會議將包含報告和調整後的各種運營結果。

Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results.

調整後的結果不包括影響與報告結果比較的特殊項目。

Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com.

這些非 GAAP 財務措施和對賬的說明包含在今天的收益發布和我們的網站 altria.com 上。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Howard.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給霍華德。

Thanks, Mac, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，麥克，大家早上好。

We are in the midst of a remarkable transformation within the tobacco industry.

我們正處於菸草行業的顯著轉型之中。

Once predictable, the industry has become increasingly dynamic and complex.

一旦可以預測，這個行業就會變得越來越動態和復雜。

And while this evolution may pose short-term challenges, we believe tobacco harm reduction is a significant opportunity for the industry and adult tobacco consumers.

雖然這種演變可能會帶來短期挑戰，但我們認為減少煙草危害對煙草業和成年煙草消費者來說是一個重要機會。

We believe that in the next decade, noncombustible products can surpass combustibles as the preferred choice among adult tobacco consumers.

我們相信，在未來十年內，不可燃產品將超越可燃產品，成為成年煙草消費者的首選。

We intend to lead this historic transformation with our unmatched portfolio of noncombustible products and investments.

我們打算通過我們無與倫比的不燃產品和投資組合來引領這一歷史性變革。

Before moving to our strong third quarter performance, I'd like to provide you with our perspective on Altria's strategy and the key noncombustible platforms.

在轉向我們強勁的第三季度業績之前，我想向您提供我們對奧馳亞戰略和關鍵不可燃平台的看法。

Over the last 2 years, we believe we've built a business platform with the ability to deliver strong long-term results across a variety of future industry scenarios.

在過去的 2 年裡，我們相信我們已經建立了一個業務平台，能夠在未來的各種行業場景中提供強大的長期成果。

We understood that no single product would likely satisfy all adult smokers looking for alternatives, and that the regulatory environment for noncombustible products would continue to evolve.

我們知道，沒有一種產品可能會滿足所有尋找替代品的成年吸煙者，並且不燃產品的監管環境將繼續發展。

We assessed our portfolio and believe that we have addressed gaps with investments in e-vapor and oral nicotine pouches as well as an adjacent investment in cannabis.

我們評估了我們的投資組合，並相信我們已經解決了對電子蒸汽和口服尼古丁袋的投資以及對大麻的相鄰投資的差距。

Today, we believe we have the strongest portfolio across multiple tobacco platforms and are well positioned for future growth in a rapidly evolving U.S. tobacco industry.

今天，我們相信我們在多個煙草平台上擁有最強大的產品組合，並為在快速發展的美國煙草業中實現未來增長做好了充分準備。

Turning to the key noncombustible platforms, the e-vapor category faces a critical inflection point.

轉向關鍵的不可燃平台，電子蒸汽類別面臨著一個關鍵的拐點。

We must address underage use, while also preserving options for the more than 20 million adult smokers who are interested in less harmful tobacco products.

我們必須解決未成年人使用問題，同時還要為超過 2000 萬對危害較小的煙草產品感興趣的成年吸煙者保留選擇。

We continue to believe that raising the legal minimum age to purchase all tobacco products to 21 at the federal and state levels is the most effective action to reverse the rise in youth vaping.

我們仍然認為，在聯邦和州一級將購買所有煙草產品的法定最低年齡提高到 21 歲是扭轉青少年吸電子煙人數上升趨勢的最有效行動。

Today, more than 50% of the U.S. population is governed by Tobacco 21 laws.

今天，超過 50% 的美國人口受煙草 21 法管轄。

And while there is strong momentum behind this change, more activity is required from the federal government and remaining states to enact Tobacco 21 laws nationally.

儘管這一變化背後的勢頭強勁，但聯邦政府和其餘各州仍需開展更多活動，以在全國范圍內頒布《煙草 21 條》法律。

We also [urge] swift action from the FDA and other public health authorities to take the appropriate actions regarding flavored e-vapor products and to identify the sources of the recent vaping injuries.

我們還 [敦促] FDA 和其他公共衛生當局迅速採取行動，對調味電子蒸汽產品採取適當行動，並查明最近電子煙傷害的來源。

We believe that these actions could reset the course for the e-vapor category and preserve its long-term potential for harm reduction.

我們相信，這些行動可以重新設定電子蒸汽類別的路線，並保持其減少危害的長期潛力。

We are also excited about the opportunity that heated tobacco presents to adult smokers.

我們也對加熱煙草為成年吸煙者提供的機會感到興奮。

Based on third-party research, approximately 40% of U.S. adult smokers have tried but ultimately rejected e-vapor products.

根據第三方研究，大約 40% 的美國成年吸煙者嘗試過但最終拒絕了電子蒸汽產品。

We believe heated tobacco could be an appealing alternative for these adult smokers.

我們相信加熱煙草可能是對這些成年吸煙者有吸引力的替代品。

Unlike e-vapor products, these systems contain real tobacco and offer a sensorial experience closer to that of traditional cigarettes.

與電子蒸汽產品不同，這些系統包含真正的煙草，並提供更接近傳統香煙的感官體驗。

The IQOS heated tobacco system is the first and only heated tobacco product that's received premarket authorization from the FDA, and it also has a pending MRTP application.

IQOS 加熱煙草系統是第一個也是唯一一個獲得 FDA 上市前授權的加熱煙草產品，它還有一個待處理的 MRTP 申請。

We believe that heated tobacco systems and IQOS specifically, are well positioned to meet the preferences of adult smokers who are looking for, but have not found, a satisfying alternative to cigarettes.

我們相信，加熱煙草系統，特別是 IQOS，能夠很好地滿足正在尋找但尚未找到令人滿意的香煙替代品的成年吸煙者的偏好。

Finally, we believe that oral tobacco can provide a compelling alternative for adult smokers.

最後，我們相信口腔煙草可以為成年吸煙者提供一種令人信服的替代品。

In moist smokeless tobacco, we filed a modified risk application with the FDA for Copenhagen Snuff based on decades of available science.

在潮濕的無菸煙草中，我們根據數十年的可用科學向 FDA 提交了哥本哈根鼻煙的修改風險申請。

Additionally, we have invested in the rapidly growing oral nicotine pouch segment, which offers adult tobacco consumers convenient nicotine satisfaction.

此外，我們還投資於快速增長的口服尼古丁袋裝產品，為成年煙草消費者提供便捷的尼古丁滿足感。

Ultimately, the adult tobacco consumer and the regulatory framework will dictate which categories grow and at what pace.

最終，成年煙草消費者和監管框架將決定哪些類別增長以及增長速度。

We believe our broad portfolio, investments and leading capabilities position us to win in multiple future scenarios.

我們相信，我們廣泛的投資組合、投資和領先的能力使我們能夠在未來的多種情況下取勝。

Turning to third quarter performance, Altria continued to deliver excellent results driven by our core tobacco businesses.

談到第三季度的業績，奧馳亞繼續在我們的核心煙草業務的推動下取得出色的業績。

We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share over 10% in the third quarter, with both of our core tobacco segments delivering double-digit adjusted operating company's income growth, expanding their adjusted operating company's income margins and maintaining momentum on their leading premium brands.

第三季度，我們調整後的稀釋每股收益增長了 10% 以上，我們的兩個核心煙草部門都實現了兩位數的調整後運營公司收入增長，擴大了調整後運營公司的利潤率，並保持了領先高端品牌的發展勢頭。

The smokable products segment delivered another remarkable quarter, growing its third quarter adjusted operating company's income 12.6% and increasing its year-to-date adjusted operating company's income growth to 8.1%.

可吸煙產品部門又一個出色的季度，其第三季度調整後的運營公司收入增長了 12.6%，並將其年初至今調整後的運營公司收入增長了 8.1%。

Higher pricing and the impact of our cost reduction efforts more than offset lower cigarette volumes to drive income growth in both the third quarter and the first 9 months.

更高的定價和我們降低成本的努力的影響遠遠抵消了捲菸銷量的下降，從而推動了第三季度和前 9 個月的收入增長。

PM USA is pleased with Marlboro's performance with 8 consecutive quarters of stability since the end of 2017.

美國總理對萬寶路自2017年底以來連續8個季度穩定的表現感到滿意。

In discount, L&M is performing in line with expectations, and we are pleased with its increased profitability over time.

在折扣方面，L&M 的表現符合預期，我們對其盈利能力隨著時間的推移而增加感到高興。

We believe discount category dynamics continue to primarily reflect the churn between branded discount and deep discount offerings.

我們認為折扣品類動態繼續主要反映品牌折扣和深度折扣產品之間的變化。

Overall discount category retail share was flat sequentially in the quarter at 24.2% and remains in line with historical share levels.

本季度整體折扣品類零售份額持平，為 24.2%，與歷史份額水平保持一致。

We estimate that U.S. cigarette industry volumes declined by 5.5% in the third quarter and first 9 months when adjusted for trade inventory movements, calendar differences and other factors.

我們估計，根據貿易庫存變動、日曆差異和其他因素調整後，美國捲菸業銷量在第三季度和前 9 個月下降了 5.5%。

We continue to believe that increased adult smoker movement to e-vapor and high levels of exclusive e-vapor category usage were the primary drivers of the accelerated decline rate over the past year.

我們仍然認為，越來越多的成年吸煙者轉向使用電子蒸汽和高水平的獨家電子蒸汽類別使用是過去一年加速下降的主要驅動因素。

Based on our 12-month moving data, we estimate there are now 12.6 million adult vapers 21-plus as of September 2019, up from 10.3 million at the end of 2018.

根據我們 12 個月的移動數據，我們估計截至 2019 年 9 月，現在有 1260 萬 21 歲以上的成人電子煙用戶，高於 2018 年底的 1030 萬。

Importantly, that growth trend coincides with a trend toward more exclusive usage in the category.

重要的是，這種增長趨勢與該類別中更多獨家使用的趨勢相吻合。

According to our adult consumer tracking data, we estimate that 6 million adults 21-plus vape and do not smoke as of September 2019, which is the highest number of exclusive users since our study began in 2014.

根據我們的成人消費者跟踪數據，我們估計截至 2019 年 9 月，有 600 萬 21 歲以上的成年人吸電子煙並且不吸煙，這是自我們 2014 年開始研究以來的最高數字。

Adult tobacco consumer movement across tobacco spaces remains highly dynamic, and we will continue to monitor these trends.

跨煙草空間的成人煙草消費者流動仍然非常活躍，我們將繼續監測這些趨勢。

Over the past 12 months, U.S. cigarette industry volumes declined by an estimated 5.5% when adjusted for trade inventory movements, calendar differences and other factors.

在過去的 12 個月裡，根據貿易庫存變動、日曆差異和其他因素調整後，美國捲菸行業的銷量估計下降了 5.5%。

We reaffirm our full year 2019 U.S. cigarette industry adjusted volume decline estimate of 5% to 6%.

我們重申我們對 2019 年美國捲菸行業調整後銷量下降 5% 至 6% 的估計。

We also maintained our 4% to 6% adjusted decline rate estimates through 2023 until more information is known about how adult tobacco consumers will respond to e-vapor category dynamics including regulation and legislative developments.

我們還維持到 2023 年 4% 至 6% 的調整後下降率估計，直到了解更多有關成人煙草消費者將如何響應電子蒸汽類別動態（包括監管和立法發展）的信息。

Turning to our smokeless products segment results.

轉向我們的無菸產品部分結果。

USSTC is successfully executing against its strategy of maximizing income while maintaining momentum on Copenhagen over time.

USSTC 成功地執行了其收入最大化戰略，同時隨著時間的推移保持哥本哈根的勢頭。

The smokeless products segment continued its strong 2019 performance, growing its adjusted operating company's income by 10.2% in the third quarter, and 9.7% for the first 9 months of 2019.

無菸產品部門延續了 2019 年的強勁表現，其調整後的運營公司收入在第三季度增長了 10.2%，在 2019 年前 9 個月增長了 9.7%。

Copenhagen's category-leading retail share was 24.7% for the third quarter, up 0.1 sequentially and up 0.2 versus the year-ago quarter.

哥本哈根第三季度的零售份額為 24.7%，環比增長 0.1%，比去年同期增長 0.2%。

USSTC's smokeless volumes decreased an estimated 3% in the first 9 months of the year, when adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences.

根據貿易庫存變動和日曆差異進行調整後，USSTC 的無菸卷在今年前 9 個月估計下降了 3%。

In the last 6 months, smokeless industry volume decreased by an estimated 1.5%.

在過去 6 個月中，無菸行業的銷量估計下降了 1.5%。

We believe these declines reflect increasing adult tobacco consumer interest in both e-vapor products and oral nicotine pouches.

我們認為這些下降反映了成年煙草消費者對電子蒸汽產品和口服尼古丁袋的興趣增加。

In e-vapor, we participate in the category through our 35% economic investment in JUUL.

在電子煙方面，我們通過對 JUUL 的 35% 經濟投資參與該類別。

We made the investment based on our belief that JUUL's product development strength, early signs of brand equity and potential to convert adult smokers set it apart from all other e-vapor products in the market.

我們的投資基於我們的信念，即 JUUL 的產品開發實力、品牌資產的早期跡像以及轉化成年吸煙者的潛力使其有別於市場上所有其他電子蒸汽產品。

We also believed that the investment would enhance Altria's growing portfolio of noncombustible product offerings.

我們還相信，這項投資將增強奧馳亞不斷增長的不燃產品組合。

Given the dramatic shifts in the current e-vapor regulatory and marketplace environments, we have revised our transaction assumptions.

鑑於當前電子蒸汽監管和市場環境的巨大變化，我們修改了我們的交易假設。

In preparing our financials this quarter, we performed a valuation analysis on our JUUL investment, which considered multiple regulatory and marketplace scenarios.

在準備本季度的財務報告時，我們對 JUUL 投資進行了估值分析，其中考慮了多種監管和市場情景。

In aggregate, we're now projecting lower e-vapor category volumes in the U.S. versus our original estimates, which resulted in a third quarter noncash impairment charge of $4.5 billion related to our JUUL investment.

總的來說，我們現在預計美國的電子蒸汽類別數量將低於我們最初的估計，這導致與我們的 JUUL 投資相關的第三季度非現金減值費用為 45 億美元。

Also factoring into this determination were other changes to our original assumptions.

考慮到這一決定的還有我們最初假設的其他變化。

For example, we expect it may take longer for JUUL to realize the strong margin performance that we previously communicated.

例如，我們預計 JUUL 可能需要更長的時間才能實現我們之前傳達的強勁利潤率表現。

We've also revised our estimates of JUUL's international business due to recent market developments.

由於最近的市場發展，我們還修改了對 JUUL 國際業務的估計。

Despite this impairment charge, we remain committed to JUUL's success.

儘管有這項減值費用，我們仍然致力於 JUUL 的成功。

We are pleased with the recent decisions by JUUL to change leadership and we are optimistic about JUUL's focus and prioritization in key areas, such as establishing industry-leading responsible practices and pursuing regulatory authorization of their products.

我們對 JUUL 最近改變領導層的決定感到高興，我們對 JUUL 在關鍵領域的關注和優先次序持樂觀態度，例如建立行業領先的負責任的做法和尋求其產品的監管授權。

Finally, regarding antitrust clearance, we've certified substantial compliance with the FTC's second request, and we expect a resolution in the first quarter of next year.

最後，關於反壟斷審查，我們已證明基本符合 FTC 的第二項要求，我們預計明年第一季度將有一項決議。

Turning to heated tobacco, PM USA is executing a robust marketing strategy for IQOS in the Atlanta lead market.

談到加熱煙草，PM USA 正在亞特蘭大鉛市場為 IQOS 執行強有力的營銷策略。

The first U.S. IQOS store opened in September and has since been supplemented by additional retail touch points, including a mobile pop-up unit and IQOS corners located within select stores.

美國第一家 IQOS 商店於 9 月開業，此後增加了更多零售接觸點，包括移動快閃店和位於精選商店內的 IQOS 專櫃。

We've also recently opened a second IQOS boutique in the Mall of Georgia.

我們最近還在喬治亞購物中心開設了第二家 IQOS 精品店。

Of course, responsible marketing is the foundation for all our consumer interactions.

當然，負責任的營銷是我們所有消費者互動的基礎。

IQOS is intended only for adult smokers and IQOS boutique entrants must be 21 or older.

IQOS 僅適用於成年吸煙者，IQOS 精品店的參賽者必須年滿 21 歲。

The performance of IQOS in Atlanta and other lead markets will be an important input to our future commercialization plan for the brand.

IQOS 在亞特蘭大和其他主要市場的表現將成為我們未來品牌商業化計劃的重要投入。

The primary goals of the lead markets are to determine how best to communicate with adult smokers and how to scale our efforts.

領先市場的主要目標是確定如何最好地與成年吸煙者溝通以及如何擴大我們的努力。

PMI's MRTP application for IQOS remains pending with the FDA, and we are optimistic about the prospects of IQOS receiving this modified risk authorization.

PMI 對 IQOS 的 MRTP 申請仍在等待 FDA，我們對 IQOS 獲得這一修改後的風險授權的前景持樂觀態度。

Additionally, we are encouraged that the FDA's draft PMTA rules include a special pathway for technological changes to previously authorized products, which could support bringing newer versions of the IQOS device to market.

此外，令我們感到鼓舞的是，FDA 的 PMTA 規則草案包括對先前授權產品進行技術更改的特殊途徑，這可以支持將更新版本的 IQOS 設備推向市場。

Finally, we are excited to announce that IQOS will be expanding to Richmond, Virginia beginning next month, with an IQOS store opening in the Carytown District.

最後，我們很高興地宣布，從下個月開始，IQOS 將擴展到弗吉尼亞州里士滿，並在 Carytown 區開設一家 IQOS 商店。

Altria has a sizable employee base in Richmond and deep connections with the community that could accelerate early adoption of IQOS.

奧馳亞在里士滿擁有龐大的員工基礎，並且與社區有著深厚的聯繫，可以加速 IQOS 的早期採用。

We also anticipate distributing heat sticks to approximately 150 retail outlets within the area and deploying a similar marketing strategy as the Atlanta lead market.

我們還預計將向該地區約 150 家零售店分發熱棒，並部署與亞特蘭大領先市場類似的營銷策略。

We are pleased to expand IQOS availability as an alternative to adult smokers and look forward to sharing more details in the future.

我們很高興擴大 IQOS 的可用性，作為成年吸煙者的替代品，並期待在未來分享更多細節。

In oral nicotine pouches, we are pleased to announce that the on!

在口服尼古丁袋中，我們很高興地宣布，上！

transaction closed during the third quarter.

交易在第三季度結束。

Now that the transaction is complete, we'd like to update you on our plans to pursue leadership in this new and fast-growing category.

現在交易已經完成，我們想向您介紹我們在這個快速增長的新類別中尋求領導地位的最新計劃。

We are focused on engaging adult tobacco consumers through both traditional retail and digital experiences.

我們專注於通過傳統零售和數字體驗吸引成年煙草消費者。

We launched a premium branded website for on!, where age-restricted adult tobacco consumers can explore the brand and will soon be able to purchase the product online.

我們為 on! 推出了一個優質品牌網站，有年齡限制的成年煙草消費者可以在該網站上探索該品牌，並很快能夠在線購買該產品。

We expect to begin production of on!

我們期待著開始生產！

in our Richmond manufacturing center beginning first quarter next year.

明年第一季度開始在我們的里士滿製造中心。

In 2020, we are targeting annualized capacity of 50 million cans by midyear and 75 million cans by year-end with additional capacity available, if necessary.

到 2020 年，我們的目標是到年中年產能達到 5000 萬罐，到年底達到 7500 萬罐，並在必要時提供額外產能。

In addition, our strong regulatory affairs team is preparing PMTAs for the on!

此外，我們強大的法規事務團隊正在為 on! 準備 PMTA！

portfolio for the May 2020 deadline.

2020 年 5 月截止日期的投資組合。

As a reminder, Altria owns 80% of the Helix Innovations joint venture that will commercialize on!

提醒一下，奧馳亞擁有 Helix Innovations 合資企業 80% 的股份，該合資企業將在 ！

globally.

全球範圍內。

on!

在！

has a product portfolio consisting of 35 unique SKUs, 7 flavor varieties across 5 nicotine strengths.

擁有一個產品組合，包括 35 個獨特的 SKU、5 種尼古丁強度的 7 種口味。

We believe the breadth of nicotine strengths and flavors is a tremendous competitive advantage, as both adult smokers and dippers can find satisfying options within the on!

我們相信尼古丁強度和口味的廣度是一個巨大的競爭優勢，因為成年吸煙者和吸食者都可以在其中找到令人滿意的選擇！

portfolio.

文件夾。

As I mentioned at the beginning of the call, we continue to believe the evolution of the tobacco industry represents a significant opportunity for Altria.

正如我在電話會議開始時提到的那樣，我們仍然相信煙草業的發展對奧馳亞來說是一個重要的機會。

We've marked major milestones in our transformation journey this year, including launching IQOS and completing the on!

我們在今年的轉型之旅中取得了重大里程碑，包括推出 IQOS 並完成了！

transaction.

交易。

We believe that with current adult smoker trends and e-vapor disruption, it's an opportune time to expand the availability of these options.

我們認為，隨著當前成年吸煙者的趨勢和電子蒸汽的中斷，現在是擴大這些選項可用性的好時機。

We believe that incremental investment behind our noncombustible portfolio will best position Altria for long-term industry leadership.

我們相信，我們的不可燃產品組合背後的增量投資將使奧馳亞處於長期行業領先地位。

In light of these considerations, we are replacing our long-term adjusted diluted EPS growth aspiration of 7% to 9%, with a compounded annual adjusted diluted EPS growth objective of 5% to 8% for the years 2020 through 2022.

鑑於這些考慮，我們將 2020 年至 2022 年的 7% 至 9% 的長期調整後攤薄每股收益增長目標替換為 5% 至 8% 的複合年度調整攤薄每股收益增長目標。

We believe this new growth objective provides us the flexibility to make investments in noncombustible offerings for the long term, generate sustainable income growth in our core tobacco businesses and return cash to shareholders through a strong dividend.

我們相信，這一新的增長目標使我們能夠靈活地長期投資於不燃產品，在我們的核心煙草業務中產生可持續的收入增長，並通過高額股息向股東返還現金。

We also expect to maintain our dividend payout ratio target of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS during this period.

我們還預計在此期間將我們的股息支付率目標維持在調整後攤薄每股收益的 80% 左右。

We will provide specific full year 2020 adjusted diluted EPS guidance in January when we announce our fourth quarter 2019 results.

我們將在 1 月份公佈 2019 年第四季度業績時提供具體的 2020 年全年調整後攤薄每股收益指引。

Turning to 2019 earnings, we reaffirm our guidance for full year adjusted diluted EPS to be in a range of $4.19 to $4.27, representing a growth rate of 5% to 7% from an adjusted diluted EPS base of $3.99 in 2018.

談到 2019 年的收益，我們重申我們對全年調整後攤薄每股收益的指引在 4.19 美元至 4.27 美元之間，較 2018 年調整後的攤薄每股收益基數 3.99 美元增長 5% 至 7%。

Altria's 2019 success to date can be attributed to our resilient core tobacco businesses and our talented employees.

奧馳亞 2019 年迄今的成功可歸功於我們富有彈性的核心煙草業務和我們才華橫溢的員工。

Our employee base has embraced industry disruption with focus and dedication.

我們的員工群以專注和奉獻的精神迎接了行業顛覆。

Our business results show what I see every day that our people propel our success, and I thank them for that.

我們的業務成果表明我每天都看到我們的員工推動了我們的成功，我為此感謝他們。

I'll now turn it over to Billy to provide more detail on our performance in other investments.

我現在將其轉交給比利，以提供有關我們在其他投資中的表現的更多詳細信息。

Thanks, Howard, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，霍華德，大家早上好。

We'll begin with additional color on our smokable products segment.

我們將從可吸煙產品部分的其他顏色開始。

Reported domestic cigarette volume decreased 6.6% in the third quarter, primarily due to the industry's rate of decline, retail share losses and trade inventory movements, partially offset by 1 extra shipping day.

第三季度報告的國內捲煙銷量下降 6.6%，這主要是由於行業下降速度、零售份額損失和貿易庫存變動，部分被 1 個額外的運輸日所抵消。

When adjusted for calendar differences, trade inventory movements and other factors, smokable products segment cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 7% for the third quarter and 7.5% for the first 9 months.

根據日曆差異、貿易庫存變動和其他因素進行調整後，可吸產品部門的捲煙銷量在第三季度和前 9 個月分別下降了 7% 和 7.5%。

In the third quarter, the smokable products segment expanded adjusted OCI margins by 4.9 percentage points to 55.3%, driven by higher pricing and lower controllable cost.

第三季度，受更高定價和更低可控成本的推動，可吸煙產品部門將調整後的 OCI 利潤率擴大 4.9 個百分點至 55.3%。

In the smokable products segment, excellent price realization reflects both pricing actions and greater efficiency in use of promotional resources thanks to investments made in trade programs, data analytics and consumer data.

在可吸產品領域，由於對貿易計劃、數據分析和消費者數據的投資，出色的價格實現既反映了定價行為，也反映了促銷資源使用效率的提高。

Net price realization was 9.6% in the third quarter and 8.4% for the first 9 months of 2019.

第三季度淨價實現率為 9.6%，2019 年前 9 個月為 8.4%。

Marlboro's performance continues to be supported by its leading brand equity bolstered by investments in product expansion, packaging innovation, digital loyalty and trade programs.

萬寶路的業績繼續得到其領先品牌資產的支持，該品牌資產受到產品擴展、包裝創新、數字忠誠度和貿易計劃投資的支持。

Specifically, the Marlboro Rewards program continues to resonate well with adult smokers and drive visits to marlboro.com.

具體而言，萬寶路獎勵計劃繼續與成年吸煙者產生良好共鳴，並推動對 marlboro.com 的訪問。

Enrollment continued to grow in the third quarter, and the program now has 2.5 million participants, and 150 million pack codes have been entered since the program launched in January.

第三季度報名人數持續增長，該計劃目前已有 250 萬參與者，自 1 月該計劃啟動以來已輸入 1.5 億個包代碼。

In cigars, volume grew 4.1% in the third quarter, outpacing the industry, and Black & Mild continued its strength in the premium tipped cigar segment.

在雪茄方面，第三季度銷量增長了 4.1%，超過了整個行業，而 Black & Mild 在高端雪茄領域繼續保持強勢。

In the Smokeless product segment, adjusted OCI margins expanded by 2.5 percentage points to 71.9% in the third quarter primarily driven by higher pricing, lower promotional investments and lower controllable costs.

在無菸產品領域，調整後的 OCI 利潤率在第三季度增長了 2.5 個百分點，達到 71.9%，這主要是由於更高的定價、更低的促銷投資和更低的可控成本。

USSTC's third quarter retail share was 53.9%, up 0.1 sequentially and down 0.4 versus the prior year.

USSTC 第三季度的零售份額為 53.9%，環比上升 0.1，比去年同期下降 0.4。

Turning to our alcohol assets.

轉向我們的酒精資產。

In wine, the premium segment continues to be highly competitive.

在葡萄酒領域，高端市場的競爭依然激烈。

Ste.

Ste。

Michelle delivered adjusted operating company's income of $16 million, down nearly 45% in the third quarter, primarily due to higher promotional investments and lower shipment volume.

米歇爾第三季度實現調整後運營公司收入 1600 萬美元，下降近 45%，主要原因是促銷投資增加和出貨量下降。

And in beer, adjusted earnings from our equity investment in ABI were $238 million in the third quarter, up more than 6% year-over-year, reflecting Altria's share of ABI's second quarter results.

在啤酒方面，第三季度我們對 ABI 股權投資的調整後收益為 2.38 億美元，同比增長超過 6%，反映了奧馳亞在 ABI 第二季度業績中的份額。

The cannabis space remains very active, and Cronos is making progress in executing against its growth strategy.

大麻空間仍然非常活躍， Cronos 在執行其增長戰略方面正在取得進展。

Cronos closed on its acquisition of Redwood Holdings during the third quarter, which provides Cronos with a leading U.S. hemp-based products platform.

Cronos 在第三季度完成了對 Redwood Holdings 的收購，這為 Cronos 提供了一個領先的美國大麻產品平台。

Redwood manufactures and sells hemp-derived CBD-infused skincare and other consumer products under the Lord Jones luxury brand name.

Redwood 以 Lord Jones 奢侈品牌生產和銷售大麻衍生的 CBD 注入護膚品和其他消費品。

We believe the acquisition fits well into Cronos' strategy of building differentiated brands and disruptive intellectual property.

我們認為，此次收購非常符合 Cronos 建立差異化品牌和顛覆性知識產權的戰略。

We're very excited about the future prospects of the cannabis industry and the opportunity for Cronos to position itself for long-term leadership.

我們對大麻行業的未來前景以及 Cronos 為長期領導地位定位的機會感到非常興奮。

Moving to our capital allocation.

轉向我們的資本配置。

We continue to return a significant amount of cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks.

我們繼續以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還大量現金。

In August, we marked our 50th year of dividend increases.

八月，我們迎來了增加股息的第 50 個年頭。

We are proud of our dividend growth history and remain focused on providing long-term value to shareholders through dividends.

我們為我們的股息增長歷史感到自豪，並將繼續專注於通過股息為股東提供長期價值。

With the recent increase, Altria's current annualized dividend rate is $3.36 per share, which represents an annual dividend yield of 7.3% as of October 28, 2019.

隨著最近的上漲，奧馳亞目前的年化股息率為每股 3.36 美元，這意味著截至 2019 年 10 月 28 日的年股息收益率為 7.3%。

We paid $1.5 billion in dividends in the third quarter, and we still expect to complete our previously announced $1 billion share repurchase program by the end of 2020.

我們在第三季度支付了 15 億美元的股息，我們仍然希望在 2020 年底之前完成我們之前宣布的 10 億美元的股票回購計劃。

Altria's businesses generate significant cash flow.

奧馳亞的業務產生大量現金流。

In fact, we've generally produced about $1 million of cash annually in excess of our dividend payments, which provides flexibility to repurchase shares, finance debt maturities and invest strategically in the business.

事實上，我們通常每年產生約 100 萬美元的現金，超過我們的股息支付，這為回購股票、為債務到期融資和戰略投資業務提供了靈活性。

Our cost reduction program remains on track, and we still expect to realize approximately $575 million in annualized cost savings by the end of 2019.

我們的成本削減計劃仍在進行中，我們仍預計到 2019 年底將實現約 5.75 億美元的年度成本節約。

Our savings continue to build from the second quarter into the third.

從第二季度到第三季度，我們的儲蓄繼續增加。

And as the year progresses, this offering is more -- this is offsetting more of the incremental interest expense we incurred in connection with our investments in Cronos and JUUL.

隨著時間的推移，這種產品更多——這抵消了我們在 Cronos 和 JUUL 的投資中產生的更多利息支出。

As a reminder, the program includes savings from workforce reductions, third-party spending reductions and closure of our Nu Mark operations.

提醒一下，該計劃包括通過裁員、第三方支出削減和關閉我們的 Nu Mark 業務而節省的資金。

With that, we'll wrap up, and Howard and I will be happy to take your questions.

至此，我們將結束，霍華德和我將很樂意回答您的問題。

While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com.

在編制電話時，我會提醒您，今天的收益發布和我們的非 GAAP 對賬可在 altria.com 上獲得。

We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items.

我們還發布了我們通常的季度指標，包括定價、庫存和其他內務管理項目。

With that, I'll open up the question-and-answer period.

有了這個，我將打開問答期。

Operator, do we have any questions?

接線員，我們有什麼問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We will take questions from the investment community first.

我們將首先回答投資界的問題。

Our first question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.

我們的第一個問題來自 Chris Growe 與 Stifel 的對話。

I just wanted to lead out with a question in relation to your new medium-term, if I can call that EPS growth outlook.

如果我可以稱之為 EPS 增長前景，我只是想提出一個與你的新中期有關的問題。

And I just wanted to better understand the basis for that change, and you gave some color on the call.

我只是想更好地了解這種變化的基礎，你在電話中給出了一些顏色。

I guess I would just ask does your -- I assume it does -- your 4% to 6% volume growth outlook remain the same.

我想我只想問你的——我想是的——你的 4% 到 6% 的銷量增長前景是否保持不變。

And then embedded within that EPS growth outlook, how much of this is about -- obviously, it's become a pretty fast-changing environment in this category, a lot of new products, obviously, with IQOS and on!

然後嵌入到 EPS 增長前景中，其中有多少是關於 - 顯然，它已經成為這一類別中一個非常快速變化的環境，很多新產品，顯然，IQOS 等等！

How much of it's about investment as opposed to some varying outlook in volume or that kind of thing for your business?

其中有多少是關於投資的，而不是一些不同的數量前景或對您的業務的那種事情？

Sure.

當然。

I think, first of all, our current midterm cigarette volume decline estimate remains the same at 4% to 6%.

我認為，首先，我們目前的中期捲菸銷量下降估計保持在 4% 至 6%。

Although, certainly, as we indicated before, if the environment changes our view of that, we would update you on that in the future.

當然，正如我們之前指出的那樣，如果環境改變了我們對此的看法，我們會在未來向您介紹最新情況。

I think there are a variety of reasons why we replaced our 7% to 9% EPS growth with a 5% to 8% EPS growth through 2022, two that I think are worthy of calling out.

我認為有多種原因導致我們在 2022 年之前將 7% 至 9% 的每股收益增長替換為 5% 至 8% 的每股收益增長，我認為有兩個原因值得一提。

First of all, I think it gives us flexibility to increase our investment over the next couple of years in expanding both IQOS and on!

首先，我認為這讓我們可以靈活地在未來幾年增加我們在擴展 IQOS 及其他方面的投資！

at a time that, I think, that adult tobacco consumers would be particularly interested in those products and we could build a strong business that would contribute to EPS growth over the long term.

我認為，在那個時候，成年煙草消費者會對這些產品特別感興趣，我們可以建立一個強大的業務，從長遠來看有助於每股收益的增長。

The second thing is that while we don't yet have the final FDA guidance on e-vapor, there is certainly the possibility that the e-vapor category could see its growth rate significantly slowed down or even see the category contract in relation to that FDA guidance.

第二件事是，雖然我們還沒有關於電子蒸汽的最終 FDA 指南，但電子蒸汽類別肯定有可能看到其增長率顯著放緩，甚至看到與之相關的類別合同FDA 指南。

And the 5% to 8% EPS growth gives us the opportunity, if necessary, to push out some of the contributions from JUUL that we expected on our equity income line beyond next year.

每股收益 5% 至 8% 的增長讓我們有機會在必要時將 JUUL 的一些貢獻推出，我們預計明年以後我們的股票收入線。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just another question in relation to IQOS.

然後是另一個與 IQOS 有關的問題。

Obviously, you're adding Richmond.

顯然，您要添加里士滿。

Should we expect you to continue to just methodically add new locations?

我們是否應該期望您繼續有條不紊地添加新位置？

Or is there an idea that you have to establish some learnings in these markets, and then think about expanding this to other markets?

還是有一個想法，你必須在這些市場中建立一些經驗，然後考慮將其擴展到其他市場？

I'm just trying to get an idea of the phasing.

我只是想了解分階段。

I know we can't get exactly, but the phasing, how to think about incremental locations for IQOS?

我知道我們無法準確了解，但分階段，如何考慮 IQOS 的增量位置？

Yes, it's a great question, Chris.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，克里斯。

The way we're thinking about IQOS is we certainly want to get the learnings of the U.S. consumer and their interaction, what really resonates with them as far as the learning the product and engaging with the product.

我們對 IQOS 的思考方式是，我們當然希望獲得美國消費者的知識和他們的互動，就學習產品和與產品互動而言，真正引起他們共鳴的是什麼。

We are excited about the launch that we had in Atlanta.

我們對在亞特蘭大舉行的發布會感到興奮。

We're excited about being able to expand it to Richmond.

我們很高興能夠將其擴展到里士滿。

I think the pace will really matter from a standpoint of we want to go as quick as we can, but we want to be disciplined about it.

我認為從我們希望盡可能快地進行的角度來看，步伐真的很重要，但我們希望對此保持紀律。

And we want to garner those learnings so that we're efficient when we have future expansions.

我們希望獲得這些經驗，以便在未來進行擴展時提高效率。

Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Owen Bennett 與 Jefferies 的對話。

Yes.

是的。

Just a couple of questions, please.

請問幾個問題。

First one, I was just wondering on your volume guidance industry-wise for this year, seeing as we've seen a slowdown in industry vapor volumes recently, I was just wondering why you've not [operated] that industry guidance?

第一個，我只是想知道你今年在行業方面的銷量指導，鑑於我們最近看到行業蒸汽量放緩，我只是想知道你為什麼沒有 [operated] 該行業指南？

And then secondly, you mentioned that you've revised some of your international growth expectations around JUUL.

其次，你提到你已經修改了一些圍繞 JUUL 的國際增長預期。

I was just hoping you could give a few more specifics on what has changed in terms of your international outlook for JUUL, exactly?

我只是希望你能更具體地說明你對 JUUL 的國際前景發生了什麼變化？

Sure.

當然。

I'll take the first question, and then I'll ask Billy to comment on the second one.

我將回答第一個問題，然後請比利評論第二個問題。

Our expectations for cigarette industry volume declines this year are between 5% and 6%, and we're right at the midpoint of that 9 months through the year.

我們對今年捲菸行業銷量下降的預期在 5% 到 6% 之間，而我們正處於今年 9 個月的中點。

So we remain confident that the decline rate will fall within that range.

因此，我們仍然相信下降率將落在該範圍內。

I think as you pointed out, the year-over-year growth rate of the e-vapor category in the third quarter slowed down a bit from the second quarter, but we don't think any impact that, that might have on the cigarette category is going to move us outside that range.

我認為正如您所指出的，第三季度電子蒸汽類別的同比增長率比第二季度有所放緩，但我們認為這不會對捲菸產生任何影響類別將使我們超出該範圍。

Billy, why don't you comment on JUUL?

比利，你為什麼不評論 JUUL？

Sure.

當然。

The -- when you think about the international markets, I think you've seen several countries take action on e-vapor based on what they were seeing take place in the U.S. And so we make sure -- we made sure we factored that into the scenarios as we were looking at the -- revising the assumptions.

當你想到國際市場時，我想你已經看到幾個國家根據他們在美國看到的情況對電子蒸汽採取行動，所以我們確保 - 我們確保我們將其考慮在內我們正在研究的場景——修改假設。

Your next question is from the line of Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Pamela Kaufman。

Earlier this year, you laid out key assumptions around JUUL's 5-year outlook.

今年早些時候，您圍繞 JUUL 的 5 年展望制定了關鍵假設。

Can you elaborate on how these assumptions have changed?

您能否詳細說明這些假設是如何發生變化的？

I think previously, you believed that the return would exceed your 8% WACC within 5 years.

我認為以前，您認為回報率會在 5 年內超過您的 8% WACC。

So how long do you think it will now take for JUUL to exceed this hurdle?

那麼您認為 JUUL 現在需要多長時間才能突破這個障礙？

And when do you think that JUUL can approach U.S. and international cigarette margins?

您認為 JUUL 什麼時候可以接近美國和國際捲菸利潤率？

And is this still a realistic target?

這仍然是一個現實的目標嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think, Pamela, it's too early to update those.

我認為，Pamela，現在更新這些還為時過早。

I think we tried to revise the assumptions.

我認為我們試圖修改假設。

Remember, we ran a range of scenarios because we're still waiting on the FDA to issue final guidance.

請記住，我們運行了一系列場景，因為我們仍在等待 FDA 發布最終指南。

You'll recall that JUUL took unilateral action in the marketplace, but all of these products are still available.

您會記得 JUUL 在市場上採取了單方面行動，但所有這些產品仍然可用。

So we're waiting to see what that final guidance is and see what -- how the consumer is going to be at play and what restrictions around product availability there will be, and then we'll -- we can refresh those.

因此，我們正在等著看最終指南是什麼，看看消費者將如何發揮作用以及對產品可用性會有哪些限制，然後我們將更新這些指南。

So what we did is we ran a range of scenarios so that we would make sure that we had accounted for the various assumptions and changes in those assumptions that could take place across a range of outcomes.

因此，我們所做的是運行一系列場景，以確保我們已經考慮了可能在一系列結果中發生的各種假設和這些假設的變化。

And Pamela, the primary drivers of the change in value of our investment in JUUL, as we laid out in the release, was that we reduced our expectations for overall e-vapor category volume growth over the next several years, and obviously, that impacted JUUL's volume.

正如我們在新聞稿中所闡述的那樣，Pamela 是我們對 JUUL 投資價值變化的主要驅動因素，是我們降低了對未來幾年電子蒸汽類別整體銷量增長的預期，顯然，這影響了JUUL 的音量。

And we also expect that as JUUL responds to slowing volume in the e-vapor category and the likely impact of the FDA final guidance, it could push out, a year or 2, their ability to achieve the kind of margins that we talked about here in the U.S. I think probably the most important next set of information we're looking for is to see the FDA's final guidance and how consumers react to that.

我們還預計，隨著 JUUL 對電子蒸汽類別的銷量放緩以及 FDA 最終指南可能產生的影響做出回應，它可能會推遲一兩年實現我們在這裡談到的那種利潤率的能力在美國，我認為我們正在尋找的下一組最重要的信息可能是查看 FDA 的最終指南以及消費者對此的反應。

And how do you feel about having to so materially reduce your estimate of such a large investment so quickly after being completed?

對於在完成後如此迅速地大幅降低對如此大的投資的估計，您有何感想？

And how will this experience impact your future approach to M&A versus internal investment?

這種經歷將如何影響您未來的併購與內部投資方法？

Sure.

當然。

Of course, we're not pleased to have to take an impairment charge on the JUUL investment.

當然，我們不樂意對 JUUL 投資計提減值費用。

And certainly, while we had a range of scenarios when we made our investment in JUUL, we did not anticipate this dramatic a change in the e-vapor category.

當然，雖然我們在投資 JUUL 時有多種情況，但我們並沒有預料到電子蒸汽類別會發生這種巨大變化。

Certainly, the lung injury, I think, was something we had not predicted.

當然，我認為肺部損傷是我們沒有預料到的。

And the pretty dramatic potential regulatory change that may occur next year, I think, was on the extreme end of what we might have expected.

我認為，明年可能發生的相當顯著的潛在監管變化超出了我們的預期。

However, all that said, in the third quarter JUUL had a 48% share of the e-vapor category in the U.S. The category, at least through the 9 months of this year, was growing quite dramatically with JUUL as the primary driver of that growth.

然而，儘管如此，在第三季度，JUUL 在美國的電子蒸汽類別中佔有 48% 的份額。至少在今年的 9 個月裡，該類別的增長非常顯著，而 JUUL 是該類別的主要驅動力生長。

And so we continue to believe, first of all, the bold action to address usage of e-vapor products is appropriate, and we encourage bold action by FDA.

因此，我們仍然相信，首先，解決電子蒸汽產品使用問題的大膽行動是適當的，我們鼓勵 FDA 採取大膽行動。

But we also believe that JUUL is set up in the longer-term to continue to be the winner in e-vapor.

但我們也相信，從長遠來看，JUUL 將繼續成為電子蒸汽的贏家。

And because of that, we continue to be supportive of JUUL's business and look forward to them working through the changes in the e-vapor category and being a contributor to our equity income line going forward.

正因為如此，我們將繼續支持 JUUL 的業務，並期待他們努力應對電子蒸汽產品類別的變化，並為我們未來的股權收入線做出貢獻。

Your next question is from the line of Nik Modi with RBC.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Nik Modi。

Just 2 questions.

只有2個問題。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

First, when you talk about this '20 to '22 earnings CAGR, can you help us understand the kind of the puts and takes in terms of how consistent that number will be?

首先，當你談到這個 20 到 22 年的收入複合年增長率時，你能幫助我們了解看跌期權的類型和數字的一致性嗎？

Like, should we expect some really heavy investment period in the upfront as you kind of invest behind on!

就像，當你在後面投資時，我們是否應該期待一些非常大的前期投資期！

and IQOS' national expansion.

以及IQOS的全國擴張。

So any clarity around that?

那麼對此有任何澄清嗎？

I'm not asking for 2020 guidance, I'm just trying to get a better sense of kind of how you think about it philosophically.

我不是在尋求 2020 年的指導，我只是想更好地了解您如何從哲學上思考它。

And then the second question is really helping to understand the Marlboro franchise.

然後第二個問題確實有助於理解萬寶路特許經營權。

And my understanding is that the nonpromoted portion of Marlboro is actually doing very well, helped by the rewards program.

我的理解是，在獎勵計劃的幫助下，萬寶路的非促銷部分實際上做得很好。

So I was just hoping you can give us some context around how the Marlboro trademark is performing.

所以我只是希望你能給我們一些關於萬寶路商標表現的背景信息。

Sure.

當然。

Let me first dive into the question around the expected consistency we would have for our annual EPS growth between '20 and 2022.

讓我首先深入探討一下我們在 20 年到 2022 年之間的年度每股收益增長的預期一致性問題。

When we replaced our long-term objective with this 3-year objective, you'll notice we widened the range of EPS growth a bit.

當我們用這個 3 年目標取代我們的長期目標時，您會注意到我們稍微擴大了 EPS 增長的範圍。

And I think that was by design.

我認為這是設計使然。

When we established our 7% to 9% EPS growth objective, it was at a time when volumes across the various tobacco categories in the U.S. were quite predictable.

當我們確定 7% 至 9% 的每股收益增長目標時，美國各種煙草類別的銷量是完全可以預測的。

And there wasn't as much movement between categories.

類別之間沒有那麼多的變動。

And it was also at a time when our SABMiller investment didn't have near the volatility that we have with the ABI investment.

也是在我們的 SABMiller 投資沒有接近 ABI 投資的波動性的時候。

And so I think we really felt better having a 3% range for that midterm EPS growth objective.

因此，我認為中期每股收益增長目標設定在 3% 的範圍內，我們真的感覺更好。

And I would also say that, I think many of you that have invested for a long time know that we had a 7% to 9% growth aspiration, but we tended to deliver about 8% each year.

我還要說的是，我想你們中的許多人已經投資了很長時間，他們都知道我們有 7% 到 9% 的增長願望，但我們往往每年實現大約 8% 的增長。

I think that -- we purposely, I think, want the flexibility to make higher or lower investments over each of the 3 years based on market conditions in the U.S. market.

我認為——我認為，我們有意希望根據美國市場的市場狀況，在 3 年的每一年中靈活地進行更高或更低的投資。

So you might see a little bit more movement within that range, and we were really looking to create that level of flexibility.

因此，您可能會在該範圍內看到更多的移動，我們真的希望創造這種靈活性。

I'll turn it over to Billy for the Marlboro question.

關於萬寶路的問題，我會轉交給比利。

Yes, Nik, we appreciate you recognizing the strength of the Marlboro brand.

是的，Nik，我們感謝您認可萬寶路品牌的實力。

First, I would applaud both the Marlboro team and the data analytics team.

首先，我要為萬寶路團隊和數據分析團隊鼓掌。

The Marlboro team put together a great Marlboro Rewards program, really based on analyzing the data we have on our consumer to drive higher interaction of our Marlboro consumer with the brand itself.

萬寶路團隊制定了一個偉大的萬寶路獎勵計劃，真正基於分析我們擁有的消費者數據，以推動我們的萬寶路消費者與品牌本身更好地互動。

And what that has allowed is with the data that we're capturing in the data analytics to be much more efficient around the use of -- and targeted with the use of promotions in the marketplace.

這使得我們在數據分析中捕獲的數據能夠更有效地使用 - 並且有針對性地使用市場促銷活動。

Your next question is from the line of Gaurav Jain with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

I had a couple of questions.

我有幾個問題。

One was on the recent discussions with Philip Morris and why they were called off.

其中之一是關於最近與菲利普莫里斯的討論以及他們被取消的原因。

And in particular, the value of your core tobacco business was around 8x PE, which would suggest that the business is on decline.

特別是，您的核心煙草業務的市盈率約為 8 倍，這表明該業務正在下滑。

So can you help us triangulate the multiple that you put on your own tobacco business and the growth outlook that you are now offering, which is still quite a healthy growth outlook.

那麼，您能否幫助我們對您對自己煙草業務的倍數和您現在提供的增長前景進行三角測量，這仍然是一個非常健康的增長前景。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'll comment first on our breaking off negotiations for a merger with PMI.

我將首先評論我們中斷與 PMI 合併的談判。

I think as we communicated at the time, we thought that merger between PMI and Altria had the potential to generate significant revenue and cost synergies under the right terms.

我認為，在我們當時的溝通中，我們認為 PMI 和奧馳亞之間的合併有可能在合適的條件下產生顯著的收入和成本協同效應。

We did negotiate to try and come to terms, and ultimately, we were unsuccessful.

我們確實進行了談判以試圖達成協議，但最終我們沒有成功。

And so as we communicated recently, we're now very focused on our stand-alone business prospects and continue to have a partnership with PMI that we're very excited about to commercialize IQOS in the U.S.

因此，正如我們最近溝通的那樣，我們現在非常關注我們的獨立業務前景，並繼續與 PMI 建立合作夥伴關係，我們非常高興能夠在美國將 IQOS 商業化。

With regard to the multiple that we ascribed to our core tobacco business, certainly people on the call are aware that the multiple that the stock price has ascribed to our overall business has come down quite dramatically over the last 3 years, I think, partially driven by concern about the regulatory pressures here in the U.S. We continue to believe that our stock is undervalued.

關於我們賦予核心煙草業務的倍數，當然，電話會議的人都知道，在過去 3 年中，股票價格賦予我們整體業務的倍數已經大幅下降，我認為，部分原因是由於擔心美國這裡的監管壓力，我們仍然認為我們的股票被低估了。

And when we look at the 5% to 8% midterm EPS growth guidance, the ability to build a strong platform of noncombustible tobacco products, to continue to generate income over the long-term and our strong core combustible and smokeless tobacco business, we think that the stock price has significant upside.

當我們看到 5% 到 8% 的中期每股收益增長指導、建立強大的不可燃煙草產品平台的能力、繼續長期創造收入以及我們強大的核心可燃和無菸煙草業務時，我們認為認為股價有明顯的上漲空間。

Sure.

當然。

And a follow-up on that.

並對此進行後續跟進。

So you have valuable stakes, and particularly in ABI, which are probably not accurately reflected in the current stock price.

因此，您擁有寶貴的股份，尤其是在 ABI 中，這些股份可能無法準確反映在當前的股價中。

So if this discrepancy were to persist, would you think of taking any actions to unlock the value.

因此，如果這種差異持續存在，您是否會考慮採取任何行動來釋放價值。

Yes, thank you for the question.

是的，謝謝你的提問。

I think you'll recall, as part of that transaction, we had a lockup.

我想你會記得，作為該交易的一部分，我們有一個鎖定期。

That was a 5-year lockup that would expire in 2021.

那是一個 5 年的禁售期，將於 2021 年到期。

And then after that, you can expect us to go through the same analysis we did with SAB, which is to look at that capital that's allocated towards the investment, make sure it's the right choice to keep it locked up in that investment, and then make decisions, the appropriate decisions at the time.

在那之後，你可以期望我們進行與 SAB 相同的分析，即查看分配給投資的資本，確保將其鎖定在該投資中是正確的選擇，然後做出決定，在適當的時候做出決定。

Our position on the ABI investment is that it was a great investment.

我們對 ABI 投資的立場是，這是一項偉大的投資。

It put 2 powerhouse breweries together.

它把 2 個強大的啤酒廠放在一起。

It's the first really global platform for beer in the world, and we feel good about the investment.

這是世界上第一個真正意義上的全球啤酒平台，我們對這項投資感到滿意。

But you can expect us to go through the analysis when the lockup expires.

但是你可以期待我們在鎖定到期時進行分析。

One thing I might add to that is back when we were debating what to do with the SABMiller stake, one of the concerns we had was that given its low tax basis, any sale at that time would have resulted in quite a significant tax bill.

我可能要補充的一件事是，當我們討論如何處理 SABMiller 的股份時，我們擔心的一個問題是，鑑於其低稅基，當時的任何出售都會導致相當大的稅單。

And as you may recall, with the federal tax reform here in the U.S., I think that while we still continue to have a relatively low basis on that asset, I think that we're facing a much lower tax rate if we ever did decide to sell that in the future.

你可能還記得，隨著美國的聯邦稅制改革，我認為雖然我們在該資產上的基礎仍然相對較低，但我認為如果我們決定，我們將面臨更低的稅率將來賣掉它。

Your next question is from the line of Vivien Azer with Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Vivien Azer 與 Cowen 的合作。

So Howard, I was hoping that we could just revisit the cigarette volume outlook for the U.S., please.

所以霍華德，我希望我們可以重新審視美國的捲煙銷量前景。

While I appreciate that year-to-date, you're at the midpoint of your 2019 guidance.

雖然我很欣賞今年迄今為止，但您正處於 2019 年指導的中點。

The year-to-date trends are skewing towards the more unfavorable end of your longer-term guidance.

今年迄今的趨勢正朝著您的長期指導中更不利的一端傾斜。

And when I look at Slide 13, very helpful, in your presentation and look at the fact that the cross-category movement impact has increased 5x in less than 12 months, holding a 4% to 6% outlook suggests that not only does that not get worse, in theory it gets a little bit better.

當我查看幻燈片 13 時，非常有幫助，在您的演示文稿中看到跨類別移動影響在不到 12 個月內增加了 5 倍，持有 4% 至 6% 的前景表明這不僅不會變得更糟，理論上它會變得更好一點。

Is that how you guys are thinking about it?

你們是這麼想的嗎？

Any color there would be very helpful.

那裡的任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

Yes, thank you for the question, Vivien.

是的，謝謝你的提問，Vivien。

I think when you look at that, that's certainly a 12-month moving.

我認為，當您查看時，這肯定是 12 個月的變動。

And you'll recall that when you look at the e-vapor category, going from second to third, it's virtually flat.

你會記得，當你查看電子蒸汽類別時，從第二位到第三位，它幾乎持平。

And then we have the proposed regulation that's going to hit the marketplace.

然後我們提出了將投放市場的擬議法規。

So at this point, we still feel very comfortable with the 4% to 6% on that midterm volume.

所以在這一點上，我們仍然對中期交易量的 4% 到 6% 感到非常滿意。

And so we'll certainly monitor it and keep track of it as we move forward.

因此，我們當然會在前進的過程中對其進行監控和跟踪。

But this period that we're showing you on Slide 13 is the period that you saw the huge growth in the e-vapor category.

但我們在幻燈片 13 上向您展示的這段時間是您看到電子蒸汽類別大幅增長的時期。

And Vivien, this is Howard.

薇薇安，這是霍華德。

What I might add is that certainly, we don't have the final FDA guidance on its impact on e-vapor.

我可能要補充的是，我們當然沒有關於其對電子蒸汽影響的最終 FDA 指南。

But I think that there's a reasonable possibility that, that's going to cause a slowdown in the e-vapor category growth.

但我認為有一種合理的可能性是，這將導致電子蒸汽類別的增長放緩。

And of course, that will cause some of the adult cigarette smokers that otherwise might have gone to e-vapor to evaluate that decision probably differently.

當然，這將導致一些成年吸煙者可能會以不同的方式評估該決定，否則他們可能會使用電子蒸汽。

We'd like to have quite robust offerings on IQOS and on!

我們希望在 IQOS 和其他平台上提供非常強大的產品！

available for them.

可供他們使用。

But certainly, that could have an impact on the historical decline rate for cigarettes.

但可以肯定的是，這可能會對捲菸的歷史下降率產生影響。

And then I would also point out that we've had quite rapid growth in the e-vapor category, starting in the third and fourth quarter of last year and through the first 3 quarters of this year.

然後我還要指出，從去年第三和第四季度開始，到今年前三個季度，我們在電子蒸汽類別中的增長非常迅速。

But that growth rate on a year-over-year basis had been slowing down.

但同比增長率一直在放緩。

And I think given that there are not new e-vapor products coming into the marketplace, at least until FDA authorizations take place, we would expect that there would be a natural slowing down in the growth of e-vapor here over the next year or 2. And certainly, that's what happened when IQOS was introduced in Japan.

而且我認為，鑑於沒有新的電子蒸汽產品進入市場，至少在獲得 FDA 授權之前，我們預計明年電子蒸汽的增長將自然放緩，或者2. 當然，這就是 IQOS 在日本推出時發生的情況。

And so I think you also have to factor that into the calculation.

因此，我認為您還必須將其納入計算。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

Certainly, the slowdown is apparent in the scanner data as well.

當然，掃描儀數據也明顯放緩。

My second question is on IQOS.

我的第二個問題是關於 IQOS。

Have you guys established a target on when you might achieve profitability on that platform in the U.S.?

你們是否制定了目標，確定何時可以在美國的該平台上實現盈利？

And a second question to that, in the near term, it seems like the promotional spending is aggressive, perhaps appropriately so, given the bundle is priced at $80, it would imply that the device itself is going for about $25.

第二個問題是，在短期內，促銷支出似乎是激進的，也許是適當的，鑑於捆綁包的價格為 80 美元，這意味著該設備本身的價格約為 25 美元。

Are you guys funding that promotional investment independently?

你們是獨立資助促銷投資嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So we have not communicated a time line for when IQOS would be profit positive.

因此，我們還沒有就 IQOS 何時盈利為正給出時間表。

And we really feel like at this point, it's a bit premature.

我們真的覺得在這一點上，現在還為時過早。

I think we are going to learn a lot about the most efficient way to scale IQOS in markets across the country.

我認為我們將學到很多關於在全國市場上擴展 IQOS 的最有效方法。

And I think based on that learning, we'll have a much better understanding of what the cost structure would be going forward.

我認為基於這種學習，我們將更好地了解未來的成本結構。

And I would say that you are right, that our level of spending in the Atlanta market is probably higher than it will be on a market basis going forward.

我會說你是對的，我們在亞特蘭大市場的支出水平可能高於未來的市場水平。

But Atlanta is really designed for us to try a broad spectrum of tools to create awareness, trial and purchase of IQOS.

但亞特蘭大真的是為我們設計的，可以嘗試廣泛的工具來提高對 IQOS 的認識、試用和購買。

And then based on that learnings, we'll design a more efficient, less costly plan to expand it around the country.

然後根據這些經驗，我們將設計一個更有效、成本更低的計劃，在全國范圍內推廣它。

And I think that, that means that it may take us a few more months to start expanding it, but we think that the benefit we'll get in efficiency and ability to scale a winning platform is well worth it.

而且我認為，這意味著我們可能需要幾個月的時間才能開始擴展它，但我們認為我們在效率和擴展成功平台的能力方面獲得的好處是非常值得的。

Your next question is from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Jaffray.

你的下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 與 Piper Jaffray 的合作。

Can you just talk about your approach to how you think about the IQOS rollouts?

你能談談你對 IQOS 推出的看法嗎？

And obviously, now you've already announced a second city.

顯然，現在您已經宣布了第二個城市。

But as you look ahead, how much did your learnings from Atlanta and now Richmond determine how you might adjust or update the tactics and the go-to-market approach?

但展望未來，您從亞特蘭大和現在的里士滿學到的東西在多大程度上決定了您可以如何調整或更新策略和進入市場的方法？

Or does it also drive your thinking on the magnitude and timing of the push that you might make?

或者它是否也促使你思考你可能做出的推動的幅度和時間？

Yes, I think the primary driver of our ultimate national rollout strategy and the tactics we use to cost effectively drive consumer trial awareness and purchase, the primary driver of that is going to be the results in Atlanta and now Richmond.

是的，我認為我們最終的全國推廣戰略的主要驅動力以及我們用來經濟有效地推動消費者試用意識和購買的策略，其主要驅動力將是亞特蘭大和現在里士滿的結果。

We had enough time to revisit, revise and improve the Atlanta promotional plan several times, so we feel quite good about it.

我們有足夠的時間對亞特蘭大的促銷方案進行了數次的重新審視、修改和完善，所以我們覺得還不錯。

But we have no doubt that we're going to learn things in Atlanta that allow us to be much more efficient as we roll it out nationally.

但我們毫不懷疑，我們將在亞特蘭大學到一些東西，讓我們在全國推廣時更有效率。

But I would say also that given the likelihood that there's going to be some disruption in the e-vapor market, we also wanted to step up the speed with which we would expand IQOS.

但我還要說，鑑於電子蒸汽市場可能會出現一些中斷，我們也想加快擴展 IQOS 的速度。

So while we are going to learn how to best expand it nationally, we have also set aside the resources now with our 5% to 8% EPS guidance to ramp that up much more quickly on a national basis, once we do learn probably from Atlanta.

因此，雖然我們將學習如何最好地在全國范圍內擴展它，但我們現在也已經預留了資源，我們的 5% 到 8% EPS 指導可以在全國范圍內更快地提高它，一旦我們可能從亞特蘭大學習.

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And on the outlook for next year just at a very high level in broad strokes, is there some uncertainty around the speed of traction just given that it's so early around the IQOS launch, such that you might have several scenarios potentially in mind for how next year unfolds?

就明年的前景而言，總體上處於非常高的水平，考慮到 IQOS 發佈時間太早，牽引速度是否存在一些不確定性，因此您可能會想到幾種可能的情況年展開？

And could the guidance for next year possibly even be wider than your growth objective?

明年的指導是否可能比您的增長目標更廣泛？

Yes, I won't get ahead of ourselves on guidance for next year.

是的，我不會在明年的指導上超前。

Certainly, as I said, I think that our learnings in the Atlanta test market are going to inform the plan we have for expanding IQOS, and we'll have similar learnings on on!, which will also inform it.

當然，正如我所說，我認為我們在亞特蘭大測試市場的學習將為我們擴展 IQOS 的計劃提供信息，並且我們將在 on! 上進行類似的學習，這也將為它提供信息。

Although I have to tell you that we think that the new midterm EPS growth guidance range gives us a lot of flexibility for a variety of scenarios.

儘管我必須告訴你，我們認為新的中期 EPS 增長指導範圍為我們提供了針對各種情況的很大靈活性。

But ultimately, I'll leave that for January.

但最終，我會把它留到一月份。

I do want to follow-up, I think I failed to answer one part of your question earlier, Michael, which is you are right that in Atlanta, in order to encourage adult cigarette smokers to purchase the device, we are offering quite a competitive price on a bundle that includes the device and HeatSticks, and that is a promotion that we're incurring the cost for.

我確實想跟進，我想我之前沒有回答你問題的一部分，邁克爾，你是對的，在亞特蘭大，為了鼓勵成年吸煙者購買該設備，我們提供了相當有競爭力的包含設備和 HeatSticks 的捆綁包的價格，這是我們承擔費用的促銷活動。

But when you look at somebody who purchases that bundle and then converts to IQOS over the course of a year, it's a relatively small investment for the significant income stream that creates.

但是，當你看到有人購買該捆綁包，然後在一年內轉換為 IQOS 時，對於由此產生的重要收入流來說，這是一筆相對較小的投資。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And just one last one on -- obviously, your smokeless segment operating margins are extremely high.

最後一個 - 顯然，您的無菸部門營業利潤率非常高。

How does this compare?

這比較如何？

And how do you see it evolving over time, if they're different already today?

如果他們今天已經不同了，你如何看待它隨著時間的推移而演變？

Yes, one of the real benefits of our participation in the Nicotine pouch category with on!

是的，我們參與尼古丁袋類別的真正好處之一是！

is that we think after a period of initial investment to build the business.

是我們認為經過一段時間的初始投資來建立業務。

We think that the margins on on!

我們認為利潤率就對了！

are likely to be similar to the, kind of, margins we have in the smokeless tobacco business.

可能類似於我們在無菸煙草業務中的利潤率。

It shares many of the same manufacturing characteristics that we've developed on smokeless tobacco.

它與我們開發的無菸煙草具有許多相同的製造特性。

So that could be a very high profit business going forward.

所以這可能是一個非常高利潤的業務。

And your next question is from the line of Robert Rampton with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robert Rampton。

Probably just 3 questions from me.

可能只有我的 3 個問題。

Sorry to just labor a point, but just to be clear, when you say a 5% to 8% CAGR over 3 years, do you mean in any given year 5% is the floor?

很抱歉只是強調一點，但要明確一點，當你說 3 年的複合年增長率為 5% 到 8% 時，你是說任何一年的底線是 5% 嗎？

So our intention with that is that the base year would be 2019 and that the CAGR between 2019 and 2022 would be between 5% and 8%.

因此，我們的意圖是基準年為 2019 年，2019 年至 2022 年的複合年增長率將在 5% 至 8% 之間。

Okay, that's very clear.

好的，這很清楚。

And then, sorry, my second question, could you give a bit more color on how that underlying 5.5% evolved over the course of the quarter?

然後，抱歉，我的第二個問題，你能否更詳細地說明 5.5% 的潛在增長率在本季度是如何演變的？

Obviously, the press around FDA income was more towards the tail end.

顯然，圍繞 FDA 收入的新聞更接近尾聲。

So I'll be interested to hear how that evolved?

所以我有興趣聽聽這將如何演變？

Sure.

當然。

I won't get into the details within the quarter.

我不會在本季度內詳細介紹。

But I think as you looked at that trend, obviously, we had a 5.5% cigarette category decline rate down from 6% in the second quarter.

但我認為，當你看到這一趨勢時，很明顯，我們的捲菸類別下降率從第二季度的 6% 下降到 5.5%。

And certainly, when you look at the sequential growth of e-vapor, instead of ticking up sequentially in the third quarter, it was largely flat from the second quarter.

當然，當你觀察電子蒸汽的連續增長時，它在第三季度沒有連續上升，而是與第二季度基本持平。

So I think we'll see what happens in the fourth quarter.

所以我認為我們會看到第四季度會發生什麼。

But I think the fourth quarter impact on e-vapor, which might have some impact on cigarettes, is likely to be based on what happens in the regulatory environment.

但我認為第四季度對電子蒸汽的影響可能會對捲菸產生一些影響，這可能取決於監管環境中發生的情況。

Very clear.

非常清楚。

And sorry, my final question is, so certain states have taken action on flavors earlier than possible by the FDA.

抱歉，我的最後一個問題是，某些州比 FDA 更早地對口味採取了行動。

Any early indications about what that's doing to cigarette volumes and so on and so forth?

關於這對捲菸量等有何影響的任何早期跡象？

I think it's fairly early days on some of those state actions and some of them, I think, have been held up with court challenges.

我認為其中一些國家行動還處於早期階段，我認為其中一些行動因法院挑戰而受阻。

So I think we'll have a much better read on that in the fourth quarter.

所以我認為我們會在第四季度對此有更好的了解。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗的 Adam Spielman。

So you said that you've already revised some of your marketing strategies in Atlanta for IQOS.

所以你說你已經為 IQOS 修改了你在亞特蘭大的一些營銷策略。

And so clearly, you've already got some learnings there.

很明顯，你已經在那裡學到了一些知識。

And I was just wondering if you could, at a very high level, share what you've learned so far and what those changes have been in your marketing strategy?

我只是想知道您是否可以在非常高的層次上分享您到目前為止所學到的知識以及您的營銷策略中的這些變化？

Sure.

當然。

When I referenced the fact that we had changed and improved our IQOS marketing strategy, I was really referring to the fact that we were ready to launch more than a year ago.

當我提到我們已經改變和改進了我們的 IQOS 營銷策略這一事實時，我實際上指的是我們在一年多前就已準備好推出這一事實。

And because the authorization of the product took longer than we had expected, our marketing team has been meeting with PMI, learning from their experiences overseas and making adjustments to improve the marketing plan.

並且由於產品的授權時間比我們預期的要長，我們的營銷團隊一直在與PMI會面，學習他們在海外的經驗，並做出調整以完善營銷計劃。

I would say that we really haven't made significant changes versus our original launch plan, since the product was placed in the market.

我要說的是，與我們最初的發布計劃相比，我們確實沒有做出重大改變，因為該產品已投放市場。

And I think that's largely because it's really only been 4 to 6 weeks since the launch of the product.

我認為這主要是因為自產品推出以來實際上只有 4 到 6 週。

And I think it's too soon.

而且我認為現在還為時過早。

We'll probably learn more over the next 2 to 3 months that will cause us to fine-tune the strategy.

我們可能會在接下來的 2 到 3 個月內了解更多信息，這將使我們對策略進行微調。

But I was really referring to prelaunch changes and improvements rather than post launch.

但我真正指的是發布前的更改和改進，而不是發布後。

Okay.

好的。

I'm sorry to have misunderstood.

很抱歉誤會了。

But I guess following from that, when we get to the 4Q results, will you be able to give us, I guess, what PM has always done, which is some indication of market share for IQOS in the relevant geography?

但我想從那以後，當我們得到第四季度的結果時，我猜你能不能給我們，我想，PM 一直在做什麼，這表明 IQOS 在相關地區的市場份額？

And any discussion about what you're learning.

以及有關您正在學習的內容的任何討論。

I'm quite intrigued about whether -- I'd like you to be able to say that you will update us on, frankly, how it's going in Atlanta.

我很想知道是否 - 我希望你能夠坦率地說，你會向我們介紹亞特蘭大的最新情況。

Certainly, we're going to provide what we think is appropriate to fill you in on how we think it's improving and where we're going to go from there.

當然，我們將提供我們認為合適的內容，讓您了解我們認為它正在如何改進以及我們將從那裡走向何方。

We'll decide what those appropriate metrics are as we move along.

隨著我們的前進，我們將決定那些合適的指標是什麼。

But certainly, we're going to give you some insight into how it's performing.

但可以肯定的是，我們會讓您深入了解它的表現。

Our biggest focus for the next 3 months or so is to measure our ability to drive awareness of the product in Atlanta, to drive trial and then ultimately to deliver purchase and conversion.

在接下來的 3 個月左右，我們最大的重點是衡量我們在亞特蘭大提高產品知名度、推動試用以及最終實現購買和轉化的能力。

I think at this stage, we're less focused on market share, and we're more focused on some of those earlier precursors to generating market share in the market.

我認為在這個階段，我們不太關注市場份額，我們更關註一些早期的先驅，以在市場上創造市場份額。

In a year's time, what sort of market share would you say would represent a success for IQOS in Atlanta?

一年後，您認為什麼樣的市場份額代表 IQOS 在亞特蘭大取得成功？

So if we were talking about December 2020, what would you hope to achieve by then?

那麼，如果我們談論的是 2020 年 12 月，您希望到那時實現什麼目標？

Yes, I'm going to hesitate to comment on that.

是的，我會猶豫對此發表評論。

I think that's really what we're interested in learning from the Atlanta market.

我認為這真的是我們有興趣從亞特蘭大市場學習的東西。

What I would say is that certainly the biggest success that IQOS has had is in Japan.

我要說的是，IQOS 取得的最大成功當然是在日本。

And I don't expect that we'll achieve those levels, although that's what we're going to try and learn in Atlanta.

我不指望我們會達到這些水平，儘管那是我們將在亞特蘭大嘗試和學習的。

But I do believe that when you compare to some of the PMI experiences in Western Europe, I do think we have an advantage in that we have fairly large convenience stores with modern retail, and it really provides a platform to billboard the product.

但我確實相信，當你與西歐的一些 PMI 經驗進行比較時，我確實認為我們的優勢在於我們擁有相當大的便利店和現代零售，它確實提供了一個宣傳產品的平台。

And we also have quite good database resources to reach out to adult tobacco consumers.

我們也有很好的數據庫資源來接觸成年煙草消費者。

So I would say we are optimistic about the progress we can make in the U.S. versus some of PMI's markets, but I'll hesitate to make a speculation.

所以我想說我們對我們在美國相對於 PMI 的一些市場取得的進展持樂觀態度，但我會猶豫是否做出推測。

And one final question for me and changing the subject completely, coming back to your comments about JUUL overseas outside the U.S., you said one of the reasons you took down your assumptions overseas, because -- is because some markets, let's say, India, have just said we're not going to allow e-vapor.

最後一個問題，完全改變話題，回到你對美國以外海外 JUUL 的評論，你說了你取消海外假設的原因之一，因為 - 是因為一些市場，比方說印度，剛剛說過我們不會允許使用電子蒸汽。

But I was wondering also if there was any evidence that in the markets where JUUL is being available, let's say, Western Europe, Korea, the sales performance had been as good as you'd hoped or worse than you'd, sort of, originally hoped or better than you'd hoped.

但我也想知道是否有任何證據表明在可以使用 JUUL 的市場中，比方說，西歐、韓國，銷售業績和你希望的一樣好，或者比你希望的更糟，有點，最初希望或比你希望的更好。

And whether that performance in the markets where it's actually been launched affected your assumptions about your scenarios for international rollout of JUUL.

以及它在實際推出的市場中的表現是否會影響您對國際推出 JUUL 的情景的假設。

Sure.

當然。

The primary driver of the adjustment we made in the JUUL international business valuation was more driven by the overall e-vapor category situation in various countries.

我們在 JUUL 國際業務估值中做出調整的主要驅動力更多是受到各國整體電子煙品類情況的驅動。

It was not related to individual country performance based on JUUL's early launch results.

根據 JUUL 的早期發布結果，這與個別國家/地區的表現無關。

And I have to say that it's now in many, many countries.

我不得不說它現在在很多很多國家。

But I would say it's still quite early to assess which countries it's going to have a real success in.

但我要說的是，現在評估它將在哪些國家取得真正的成功還為時過早。

So it was more driven by the overall e-vapor category environment than it was specific JUUL performance.

因此，它更多地受整體電子蒸汽類別環境的驅動，而不是具體的 JUUL 性能。

Your next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

Howard, I just wanted to take a moment and maybe revisit your opening comments surrounding the notion that the industry used to be predictable but now has become more dynamic and complex.

霍華德，我只是想花點時間，也許可以重新審視一下您關於行業過去是可預測但現在變得更加動態和復雜的概念的開場評論。

I think we all realize that there's been significant volatility, especially in the last couple of years, and that similar rate of volatility is likely to continue for some time.

我想我們都意識到存在顯著的波動，尤其是在過去幾年，而且類似的波動率可能會持續一段時間。

But is long-term predictability no longer Altria's base case to the degree it might have once been?

但是，長期可預測性是否不再像以前那樣成為奧馳亞的基本案例？

And then how is that changing your approach to the market and the company's strategic considerations going forward?

那麼這將如何改變您對市場的態度和公司未來的戰略考慮？

Maybe just elaborate a bit on that, that would be helpful.

也許只是詳細說明一下，這會有所幫助。

Sure.

當然。

If you go back 10 years and think about the first 5-year period of the last 10 years, we had very predictable and quite high EPS growth.

如果你回到 10 年前，想想過去 10 年的前 5 年，我們的每股收益增長非常可預測且相當高。

And the primary driver of that was strong operating company's income growth from our MST business and from our combustible cigarette business.

其主要驅動力是來自我們的 MST 業務和我們的可燃捲菸業務的強勁運營公司收入增長。

And the volume decline rate in cigarettes was quite consistent.

捲菸的銷量下降率非常一致。

And while we were making some investments in other categories, they really weren't having much of an impact on the decline rate of cigarettes.

雖然我們在其他類別上進行了一些投資，但它們對捲菸的下降率確實沒有太大影響。

And that generated quite a predictable and quite a satisfying level of EPS growth.

這產生了相當可預測且令人滿意的每股收益增長水平。

I think that we believe that at least over the next 3 or 4 years, you could have some variability in the decline rate of the cigarette category, as some of these noncombustible tobacco product categories are launched, are invested in and start to build a larger base business.

我認為我們相信至少在未來 3 或 4 年內，捲菸類別的下降率可能會有一些變化，因為其中一些不可燃煙草產品類別已推出、投資並開始建立更大的市場基地業務。

And it could take -- over the next 3 years, it could take some time for the volume switching between categories to become more predictable.

並且可能需要 - 在接下來的 3 年內，可能需要一些時間才能使類別之間的音量切換變得更加可預測。

And certainly, we saw an accelerated decline in the cigarette category this year.

當然，我們看到今年捲菸類別加速下滑。

But I would point out that it was -- the step-up in that decline was almost wholly driven by more rapid e-vapor category growth.

但我要指出的是——這種下降的加劇幾乎完全是由更快速的電子蒸汽類別增長推動的。

So the good news for the long-term success of the cigarette industry in the U.S. is consumers in the U.S. are still interested in satisfying nicotine products.

因此，對於美國捲菸業的長期成功來說，好消息是美國消費者仍然對令人滿意的尼古丁產品感興趣。

They're just finding a variety of different ways to satisfy their desire for satisfying nicotine products.

他們只是在尋找各種不同的方式來滿足他們對令人滿意的尼古丁產品的渴望。

I do believe that we will enter probably a more predictable phase here, maybe in the later part of the next 10 years, because I do think, eventually, we're going to get to the point where you've got larger and pretty well marketed noncombustible tobacco product platforms that would include heated tobacco.

我確實相信我們可能會在這裡進入一個更可預測的階段，也許是在未來 10 年的下半年，因為我確實認為，最終，我們將達到更大、更好的地步銷售包括加熱煙草在內的不可燃煙草產品平台。

I think e-vapor will get through this short-term disruption and return to a more predictable path.

我認為 e-vapor 將度過這一短期中斷並回到更可預測的路徑。

And then, of course, oral tobacco, including oral tobacco-derived nicotine pouches are likely to also end up with a larger base business.

然後，當然，口腔煙草，包括口腔煙草衍生的尼古丁袋也可能最終擁有更大的基礎業務。

So we think in the long term, the predictability and the profit growth that was provided largely by combustible cigarettes, that can be provided in the future, but it's likely to be from a portfolio of products that provide nicotine satisfaction.

因此，我們認為，從長遠來看，主要由可燃香煙提供的可預測性和利潤增長可以在未來提供，但很可能來自提供尼古丁滿意度的產品組合。

And we believe we built a very compelling set of brands in each of those key categories that should generate nice EPS growth over the longer term.

我們相信我們在每個關鍵類別中都建立了一系列非常引人注目的品牌，這些品牌應該會在長期內產生不錯的 EPS 增長。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And maybe sort of related -- maybe to build on some of the earlier questions.

也許有點相關——也許是基於之前的一些問題。

As e-vapor has come under increasing public scrutiny these past few months, I think everyone's looking for a noticeable change in trend in adjacent categories.

隨著電子煙在過去幾個月受到越來越多的公眾關注，我認為每個人都在尋找相鄰類別趨勢的顯著變化。

And you've spoken a bit about that regarding smokable demand.

你已經談到了一些關於可吸煙需求的問題。

But do you anticipate any potential impact on smokeless as well as we think about what may or may not transpire over the next couple of quarters?

但是，您是否預計對無菸的任何潛在影響以及我們對未來幾個季度可能發生或可能不會發生的事情的思考？

Sure.

當然。

I think if changes in the e-vapor growth rate are going to have an impact on other categories, I think we're more likely to see it probably in the first quarter or second quarter of next year.

我認為如果電子蒸汽增長率的變化會對其他類別產生影響，我認為我們更有可能在明年第一季度或第二季度看到它。

And I think you are right to point out that if that growth rate changes or if the category goes through a decline next year, I would expect to see it potentially reflected in changing growth rates in combustible cigarettes, also moist smokeless tobacco.

我認為你指出的是正確的，如果增長率發生變化，或者如果該類別明年出現下降，我希望看到它可能反映在可燃捲菸和濕無菸煙草的增長率變化上。

And you might also see a more favorable volume trend for IQOS and tobacco-derived nicotine pouches, driven by 2 things: if there's some e-vapor consumers that find their product of choice is no longer available, they may look to other product alternatives.

您可能還會看到 IQOS 和煙草衍生尼古丁袋的銷量趨勢更為有利，這受到兩件事的推動：如果有一些電子蒸汽消費者發現他們選擇的產品不再可用，他們可能會尋找其他產品替代品。

And then a big driver of the growth of e-vapor this year was cigarette -- adult cigarette smokers, JUUL using and then moving to that category.

然後，今年電子蒸汽增長的一個重要推動力是香煙——成年香煙吸煙者使用 JUUL，然後轉向該類別。

If they're not moving to vapor anymore, they'll likely stay in cigarettes or move somewhere else.

如果他們不再移動到蒸汽中，他們可能會留在香煙中或移動到其他地方。

And your next question is from the line of Petros Voulgaris with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Petros Voulgaris。

Two questions for me.

我有兩個問題。

Can you give some color into how you think about the continuum of risk with respect to how you weigh the differences and the probability of removal of menthol in e-cigs versus the probability of removal of menthol in cigarettes?

關於您如何權衡差異以及電子煙中薄荷醇去除的可能性與香煙中薄荷醇去除的可能性，您能否給出一些顏色來說明您如何看待風險的連續統一體？

And I guess as a follow-up, can you shed a little light into what cohorts in terms of demographics might be exhibiting a slower rate of decline with respect to cigarette shipment volumes.

我想作為後續行動，你能否闡明哪些人群在人口統計方面可能表現出較慢的捲煙發貨量下降速度。

Sure.

當然。

Let me try and address your first question, and I'll have Billy comment on your second one.

讓我嘗試解決您的第一個問題，我會讓比利評論您的第二個問題。

I think that our expectation is that the FDA is going to provide further information on their final guidance in the e-vapor category.

我認為我們的期望是 FDA 將提供有關電子蒸汽類別最終指南的更多信息。

And I think our expectation is that, that is going to impact flavored products in the e-vapor category.

我認為我們的期望是，這將影響電子蒸汽類別中的調味產品。

We don't have any indication that FDA is going to communicate in the near term here any further perspective on removing menthol cigarettes from the market.

我們沒有任何跡象表明 FDA 將在短期內就從市場上移除薄荷醇捲菸的任何進一步觀點進行交流。

And that would require a completely different process that's really not underway at this point in order to support that.

為了支持這一點，這將需要一個完全不同的流程，目前還沒有進行。

I really think our expectation is that in the next couple of months we're going to hear really about flavors in e-vapor.

我真的認為我們的期望是，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將真正聽到有關電子蒸汽口味的信息。

Could I ask you to just clarify the second part of the question?

我可以請你澄清問題的第二部分嗎？

I'm not sure I completely understood it.

我不確定我是否完全理解它。

Yes.

是的。

I mean -- I know you look at the market at 21 and over.

我的意思是——我知道你在 21 歲及以上看市場。

I don't know if there's like the age group from 20 to 30 is exhibiting a different rate of decline with respect to some of the older cohorts or how you cut it out.

我不知道從 20 歲到 30 歲的年齡組是否表現出與某些年齡較大的人群不同的下降速度，或者您如何將其剔除。

I was wondering if you could just shed a little light into the demographics and how there's changing dynamics within the -- and how that's impacting cigarette shipment volumes?

我想知道您是否可以稍微了解一下人口統計數據，以及內部動態如何變化——以及這如何影響捲菸出貨量？

Yes, I don't think there's any significant skew in age cohorts for cigarette shipment volume.

是的，我認為捲菸出貨量在年齡組別方面沒有任何顯著差異。

You'll recall, as we talk about the e-vapor category, it has certainly been more attractive to that younger age cohort, call it, 21 to 39.

你會記得，當我們談論電子蒸汽類別時，它對 21 到 39 歲的年輕人群更具吸引力。

So they're more interested in the alternative product categories to a little bit higher extent than the older adult smoker above that 39 age group.

因此，與 39 歲以上的老年吸煙者相比，他們對替代產品類別的興趣略高一些。

But as far as overall decline, absent them moving to other categories, we don't see any significant skew by age cohort.

但就整體下降而言，如果他們沒有轉向其他類別，我們看不到年齡組有任何顯著差異。

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now invite the media to participate in questions.

女士們，先生們，我們現在請媒體參與提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from the line of Angelica LaVito with CNBC.

（操作員說明）你的第一個問題來自 CNBC 的 Angelica LaVito。

I just wanted to ask, have you considered the possibility that the FDA does not authorize JUUL's PMTA?

我就想問一下，你考慮過FDA不授權JUUL的PMTA的可能性嗎？

Sure.

當然。

I think that with the filing date for the PMTA's move from 2022 to May of next year, I think that creates a more challenging situation on both filing and filing approvable applications for all the e-vapor companies.

我認為，隨著 PMTA 的申請日期從 2022 年移至明年 5 月，我認為這會給所有電子蒸汽公司的申請和提交可批准的申請帶來更具挑戰性的局面。

However, I believe that JUUL is highly likely to end up filing a successful application and ultimately, having their products authorized because they have a significant amount of resources applied against that task.

但是，我相信 JUUL 極有可能最終提交成功的申請並最終獲得他們的產品授權，因為他們有大量資源用於該任務。

And I think that one of the benefits they have going for them is that within the e-vapor category the JUUL product, I think, has distinguished itself compared to other e-vapor products as having quite a significant success at convincing adult cigarette smokers to convert ultimately to exclusive use of e-vapor.

我認為他們為他們帶來的好處之一是，在電子蒸汽產品類別中，我認為與其他電子蒸汽產品相比，JUUL 產品在說服成年吸煙者吸食香煙方面取得了相當大的成功，因此脫穎而出。最終轉變為獨家使用電子蒸汽。

And I think that's one of the things that the FDA is going to consider in debating whether or not to approve an application.

我認為這是 FDA 在辯論是否批准申請時要考慮的事情之一。

Your final question is from the line of Jennifer Maloney with Wall Street Journal.

你的最後一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的詹妮弗·馬洛尼 (Jennifer Maloney)。

I wonder if you could share your understanding of JUUL consumers' willingness to switch flavors.

我想知道您是否可以分享您對 JUUL 消費者更換口味意願的理解。

The company did get to observe how consumers reacted when they pulled many of their flavors out of retail stores last year.

該公司確實開始觀察消費者去年從零售店撤出許多口味時的反應。

A lot of people switched from mango to mint.

很多人從芒果轉向薄荷。

So based on those observations and others, what is your best projection of what may happen if their flavors are limited to tobacco only?

因此，根據這些觀察和其他觀察，如果他們的口味僅限於菸草，您對可能發生的情況的最佳預測是什麼？

Jennifer, thanks for the question.

詹妮弗，謝謝你的提問。

I have to tell you that I'm probably the wrong person to answer that question.

我必須告訴你，我可能不是回答這個問題的人。

I'm aware of the same trends that you referenced when some of their flavors other than tobacco, menthol and mint were restricted in the marketplace.

當他們的一些口味（煙草、薄荷醇和薄荷除外）在市場上受到限制時，我知道你提到的相同趨勢。

But given that we don't operate the JUUL business, I don't really have access to that kind of research.

但鑑於我們不經營 JUUL 業務，我真的無權進行此類研究。

That's probably best directed to JUUL management.

這可能最好針對 JUUL 管理層。

At this time, I would like to turn the call back to management for closing comments.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉回給管理層徵求意見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

To close, we believe we are the best-positioned company to successfully navigate through the current tobacco environment.

最後，我們相信我們是成功度過當前煙草環境的最佳公司。

We have excellent profit growth and cash generation from our core tobacco businesses and we have built a diversified business platform of noncombustible products that can satisfy adult tobacco consumers and provide future profitability under many different future marketplace scenarios.

我們的核心煙草業務有出色的利潤增長和現金產生，我們已經建立了一個多元化的不燃產品業務平台，可以滿足成人煙草消費者的需求，並在未來許多不同的市場情景下提供未來盈利能力。

Thanks again for joining us, and please contact our Investor Relations team if you have further questions.

再次感謝您加入我們，如果您有其他問題，請聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。

Thank you for participating in today's conference call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

You may now disconnect your lines.

您現在可以斷開線路。