奧馳亞 (MO) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2019 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到奧馳亞集團 2019 年第二季度收益電話會議。

This call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session.

此電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括奧馳亞管理層的講話和問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Paige Magness, Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications for Altria Client Services.

我現在想把電話轉給奧馳亞客戶服務投資者關係和傳播副總裁 Paige Magness 女士。

Please go ahead, ma'am.

請繼續，女士。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。

We're here this morning with Howard Willard, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, our CFO, to discuss Altria's 2019 second quarter and first half business results.

今天早上我們和奧馳亞的首席執行官霍華德威拉德一起來到這裡；和我們的首席財務官 Billy Gifford 討論奧馳亞 2019 年第二季度和上半年的業績。

Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，提供了這些結果。

We're also including slides to accompany our remarks and all this information is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor App.

我們還在我們的評論中附上了幻燈片，所有這些信息都可以在我們的網站 altria.com 上和通過 Altria Investor App 獲得。

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2018.

在我們今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們會將結果與 2018 年同期進行比較。

Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results.

我們的評論包含前瞻性和警示性陳述以及對未來結果的預測。

Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our projections.

請查看今天收益發布末尾的前瞻性和警示性聲明部分，了解可能導致實際結果與我們的預測存在重大差異的各種因素。

Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board.

未來的股息支付和股票回購仍由奧馳亞董事會酌情決定。

The share repurchases depend on marketplace conditions and other factors.

股票回購取決於市場狀況和其他因素。

Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles.

奧馳亞根據美國公認的會計原則報告其財務業績。

Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis.

今天的電話會議將包含報告和調整後的各種運營結果。

Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results.

調整後的結果不包括影響與報告結果比較的特殊項目。

Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com.

這些非 GAAP 財務措施和對賬的說明包含在今天的收益發布和我們的網站 altria.com 上。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Howard.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給霍華德。

Thanks, Paige, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，佩奇，大家早上好。

Altria delivered excellent second quarter results, driven by the performance of our core tobacco businesses.

在我們核心煙草業務的推動下，奧馳亞第二季度取得了出色的業績。

We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share nearly 9% in the second quarter with each of our core tobacco segments delivering double-digit adjusted operating companies income growth, expanding their already impressive adjusted operating companies income margins and maintaining momentum on their leading premium brands.

我們在第二季度將調整後的稀釋後每股收益增長了近 9%，我們的每個核心煙草部門都實現了兩位數的調整後運營公司收入增長，擴大了其本已令人印象深刻的調整後運營公司收入利潤率，並保持了其領先高端品牌的勢頭。

The strong second quarter was a big step-up from the first as the negative smokable inventory impact in the first quarter reversed to a benefit in the second.

強勁的第二季度比第一季度有了很大的進步，因為第一季度的負面吸煙庫存影響在第二季度逆轉為有利。

The second quarter also saw the benefits of our cost-reduction program ramp-up, and we expect these will continue to build through the year.

第二季度還看到了我們的成本削減計劃的好處，我們預計這些好處將在全年繼續增加。

In the second quarter, we made important progress further enhancing our business platform in noncombustible product offerings for adult tobacco consumers.

在第二季度，我們取得了重要進展，進一步加強了我們為成人煙草消費者提供不可燃產品的業務平台。

In April, FDA authorized PMI's IQOS product for U.S. commercialization in the heated tobacco category.

4 月，FDA 批准 PMI 的 IQOS 產品在美國商業化加熱煙草類別。

And in June, we signed an agreement to acquire 80% ownership of the companies that will globally commercialize on!, a leading product in the rapidly growing oral nicotine pouch category.

6 月，我們簽署了一項協議，收購將在全球範圍內商業化的公司 80% 的所有權！，這是快速增長的口服尼古丁袋類別中的領先產品。

We also saw an acceleration of consumer trends that we believe further validate the strategic actions that we've taken over the years.

我們還看到了消費者趨勢的加速發展，我們相信這進一步驗證了我們多年來採取的戰略行動。

We believe that with our leading premium brands -- with our leading premium tobacco brands, U.S. commercialization rights to IQOS, the leading global heated tobacco product, our investment in JUUL and pending transaction for on!, we're best positioned with a strong and resilient combustible business and the best noncombustible portfolio in the U.S. tobacco market.

我們相信，憑藉我們領先的優質品牌——憑藉我們領先的優質煙草品牌、全球領先的加熱煙草產品 IQOS 在美國的商業化權利、我們對 JUUL 的投資以及即將進行的交易！彈性可燃業務和美國煙草市場上最好的非可燃產品組合。

Let's turn first to our smokeable products segment.

讓我們首先轉向我們的可吸煙產品部分。

The smokeable products segment generated strong adjusted operating companies income growth of 11% in the second quarter, primarily driven by the benefit of higher pricing and the impact of our cost-reduction efforts.

可吸煙產品部門在第二季度產生了 11% 的調整後運營公司收入強勁增長，這主要是由於更高定價的好處和我們降低成本的努力的影響。

For the first half, the smokable segment delivered 5.7% adjusted operating company's income growth.

上半年，可吸煙部分實現了 5.7% 的調整後運營公司收入增長。

PM USA is pleased with the Marlboro's continued stability with retail share of 43.3%, unchanged versus the year-ago quarter and up 0.2 sequentially.

PM USA 對萬寶路的持續穩定感到滿意，零售份額為 43.3%，與去年同期相比持平，環比上升 0.2。

Marlboro's performance continues to be supported by its leading brand equity bolstered by investments in product expansions, packaging innovation and digital loyalty and trade programs.

萬寶路的業績繼續得到其領先品牌資產的支持，該品牌資產受到產品擴展、包裝創新以及數字忠誠度和貿易計劃投資的支持。

In discount, L&M is performing in line with expectations, and we are pleased with its increased profitability over time.

在折扣方面，L&M 的表現符合預期，我們對其盈利能力隨著時間的推移而增加感到高興。

We believe discount category dynamics continue to primarily reflect a churn between branded discount and deep discount offerings.

我們認為折扣品類動態繼續主要反映品牌折扣和深度折扣產品之間的變化。

The overall discount category grew 0.1 sequentially in the quarter to 24.2%, and the discount category remains essentially line with historical share.

本季度整體折扣類別環比增長 0.1% 至 24.2%，折扣類別與歷史份額基本保持一致。

Turning to cigarette volumes.

轉向捲菸量。

The first half of 2019 saw large inventory fluctuations.

2019年上半年庫存波動較大。

Wholesalers depleted PM USA inventories by 400 million units in the first quarter and rebuilt inventories by 500 million units in the second quarter.

批發商在第一季度消耗了 PM USA 庫存 4 億件，並在第二季度重建了 5 億件庫存。

The net result being a 100 million-unit benefit to reported volumes in the first half compared to a 400 million-unit depletion in the first half of 2018.

與 2018 年上半年的 4 億單位損耗相比，上半年的淨結果是報告銷量增加 1 億單位。

We estimate that the adjusted industry decline rate in the second quarter was 6%, up from 5% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and first quarter of 2019.

我們估計第二季度調整後的行業下滑率為 6%，高於 2018 年第四季度和 2019 年第一季度的 5%。

Over the first half, the adjusted cigarette industry decline rate was an estimated 5.5%.

上半年，調整後的捲煙行業下降率估計為 5.5%。

Let me provide you with some perspective on the factors driving category volume declines.

讓我為您提供一些關於導致類別數量下降的因素的觀點。

Over the past 12 months, U.S. cigarette industry volumes declined by an estimated 5%.

在過去的 12 個月裡，美國捲菸業的銷量估計下降了 5%。

This represents a 0.5% increase versus the 12 months ended in the first quarter of 2019, which we estimate as primarily due to increased adult smoker movement to the e-vapor category.

這比截至 2019 年第一季度的 12 個月增加了 0.5%，我們估計這主要是由於成年吸煙者轉向電子蒸汽類別。

We believe this reflects both increased availability of satisfying e-vapor products that began midyear 2018 and higher levels of exclusive e-vapor use.

我們認為，這既反映了從 2018 年年中開始令人滿意的電子蒸汽產品的可用性增加，也反映了更高水平的獨家電子蒸汽使用。

After considering the latest information, we are revising our 2019 estimate of U.S. cigarette industry volume decline rate to 5% to 6% from a range of 4% to 5%.

在考慮了最新信息後，我們將 2019 年美國捲菸行業銷量下降率的預估從 4% 至 5% 修正為 5% 至 6%。

We have also considered the combined effects of the current acceleration in adult smoker movement across categories and the recent strong national momentum behind raising the legal age to purchase all tobacco products to 21 and our estimated cigarette declines through 2023.

我們還考慮了當前成年吸煙者跨類別流動加速的綜合影響，以及最近將購買所有煙草產品的法定年齡提高到 21 歲背後的強勁勢頭，以及我們估計到 2023 年香煙數量下降的綜合影響。

Specifically, we expand our 5-year compounded annual average rate of category decline estimate to 4% to 6% from our previous range of 4% to 5%.

具體而言，我們將 5 年復合年均類別下降率估計從之前的 4% 至 5% 範圍擴大至 4% 至 6%。

It's informative to compare smokable business results versus historic category volume declines.

將可吸煙業務結果與歷史類別銷量下降進行比較是有益的。

In the first half, adjusted category volumes were down 5.5%, and the smokable segment grew adjusted operating companies income 5.7%.

上半年，調整後的品類銷量下降了 5.5%，可吸煙部分的調整後運營公司收入增長了 5.7%。

By comparison, over the past 4 years, adjusted category volumes declined approximately 3% on a compounded annual basis and the smokable segment grew adjusted operating companies income 5.2%.

相比之下，在過去 4 年中，調整後的類別銷量按複合年率下降了約 3%，而可吸煙部分調整後的運營公司收入增長了 5.2%。

We believe this demonstrates how our strong and resilient smokable platform can deliver profit growth in the current volume decline environment.

我們相信這表明我們強大而有彈性的可吸煙平台如何在當前銷量下降的環境中實現利潤增長。

Solid profit growth is also demonstrated in our smokeless product segment results.

我們的無菸產品部門業績也證明了穩健的利潤增長。

USSTC is successfully executing against its strategy of maximizing income while maintaining momentum on Copenhagen over time.

USSTC 成功地執行了其收入最大化戰略，同時隨著時間的推移保持哥本哈根的勢頭。

USSTC is one of the most profitable noncombustible tobacco businesses in the world and offers a portfolio of satisfying products with the potential for harm reduction.

USSTC 是世界上最賺錢的不燃煙草企業之一，提供一系列令人滿意的具有減少危害潛力的產品。

USSTC grew its adjusted operating companies income by 10.8% in the second quarter and 9.4% for the first half, reflecting consistently strong results so far this year.

USSTC 調整後的運營公司收入在第二季度增長了 10.8%，上半年增長了 9.4%，反映了今年迄今為止的一貫強勁業績。

And Copenhagen's category-leading retail share grew by 0.3 to 34.6% in the second quarter.

第二季度，哥本哈根的類別領先零售份額增長了 0.3%，達到 34.6%。

USSTC's smokeless volume decreased an estimated 2% in the first half when adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movement.

根據日曆差異和貿易庫存變動調整後，USSTC 的無菸卷在上半年估計下降了 2%。

USSTC estimates that smokeless industry volume decreased 1.5% in the last 6 months.

USSTC 估計過去 6 個月無菸行業的銷量下降了 1.5%。

We believe these declines reflect increasing adult tobacco consumer interest in both e-vapor and oral nicotine pouches.

我們認為這些下降反映了成年煙草消費者對電子蒸汽和口服尼古丁袋的興趣增加。

In June, we announced an agreement to acquire 80% ownership of the companies that will commercialize on!, oral nicotine pouches, through helix innovations, the newly-formed operating company, on!

6 月，我們宣布了一項協議，將通過新成立的運營公司 helix innovations 收購將在！口服尼古丁袋商業化的公司的 80% 所有權。

offers a total of 35 SKUs, representing the broadest oral nicotine pouch portfolio in the U.S. market today.

總共提供 35 個 SKU，代表了當今美國市場上最廣泛的口服尼古丁袋產品組合。

We expect the transaction to close in the second half of this year.

我們預計該交易將在今年下半年完成。

In advance of closing, Altria Group Distribution Company began expanding availability of the on!

在關閉之前，Altria Group Distribution Company 開始擴大 on!

portfolio to select retailers this month.

本月選擇零售商的產品組合。

Upon closing, our focus for on!

關閉後，我們的重點放在！

will include further expanding retail distribution and visibility, building U.S. production capacity, building the on!

將包括進一步擴大零售分銷和知名度，建設美國生產能力，繼續努力！

brand through adult tobacco consumer engagement and preparing PMTAs for the on!

通過成人煙草消費者的參與和準備 PMTA 來打造品牌！

portfolio.

文件夾。

We're excited about adding on!

我們很高興加入！

to our business platform and pursuing a leadership position in this new and rapidly growing category.

到我們的業務平台，並在這個快速增長的新類別中尋求領導地位。

Also in noncombustibles, IQOS has shown to be a leading product internationally.

同樣在不可燃物方面，IQOS 已被證明是國際領先的產品。

We're pleased to have access to an inhalable alternative that represents to the first next-generation tobacco product to receive FDA premarket authorization.

我們很高興能夠獲得代表第一個獲得 FDA 上市前授權的下一代煙草產品的可吸入替代品。

We're ready to begin commercializing IQOS in the U.S. and are committed to its success.

我們已準備好開始在美國將 IQOS 商業化，並致力於取得成功。

We expect the first IQOS store to open in Atlanta in September, along with the other retail touch points, including mobile retail units and retail kiosks, all restricted to adult smokers.

我們預計第一家 IQOS 商店將於 9 月在亞特蘭大開業，以及其他零售接觸點，包括移動零售單位和零售亭，所有這些都僅限於成年吸煙者。

We plan to have the IQOS website live in August where adult smokers will be able to preorder their IQOS devices for pickup at the IQOS Atlanta store.

我們計劃在 8 月上線 IQOS 網站，成年吸煙者將能夠預訂他們的 IQOS 設備，以便在 IQOS 亞特蘭大商店取貨。

Initially, we expect HeatStick distribution to be in approximately 500 Atlanta area stores.

最初，我們預計 HeatStick 將分佈在亞特蘭大地區大約 500 家商店。

We are very excited to bring IQOS to adult smokers in the U.S. and intend to capitalize on this first-mover advantage.

我們很高興將 IQOS 帶給美國的成年吸煙者，並打算利用這一先發優勢。

Turning the e-vapor.

轉動電子蒸汽。

The category continues to grow as adult smokers increasingly find satisfying options in the category.

隨著成年吸煙者越來越多地在該類別中找到令人滿意的選擇，該類別繼續增長。

We, of course, participate in the e-vapor category through our investment in JUUL.

當然，我們通過對 JUUL 的投資參與電子蒸汽產品類別。

After initial trial and experimentation with e-vapor, adult vapor participation in the category declined from 2014 to 2016.

在對電子蒸汽進行初步試驗和實驗後，成人蒸汽參與該類別從 2014 年到 2016 年有所下降。

The number of adult vapors reaccelerated upon the availability of more satisfying pod-based products.

隨著更令人滿意的基於豆莢的產品的可用性，成人蒸汽的數量再次增加。

Based on our 12-month moving data, we estimate there are now 13.8 million adult vapers as of June 2019, up from 12.2 million at the end of 2018.

根據我們 12 個月的移動數據，我們估計截至 2019 年 6 月，現在有 1380 萬成人電子煙用戶，高於 2018 年底的 1220 萬。

Importantly, that growth trend coincides with a trend towards more exclusive use in the category.

重要的是，這種增長趨勢與該類別更多獨家使用的趨勢相吻合。

According to our adult consumer tracking data, we estimate more than 7 million adults vape and do not smoke as of June 2019.

根據我們的成人消費者跟踪數據，我們估計截至 2019 年 6 月有超過 700 萬成年人使用電子煙但不吸煙。

In the first half of 2019, we estimate that e-vapor category volume grew by approximately 40% year-over-year across open and closed systems at all trade classes.

在 2019 年上半年，我們估計所有貿易類別的開放式和封閉式系統的電子蒸汽類別銷量同比增長約 40%。

Since 2017 and even considering more recent competitive product expansions, our data indicates that JUUL has driven nearly all of the category growth.

自 2017 年以來，甚至考慮到最近的競爭產品擴展，我們的數據表明 JUUL 推動了幾乎所有類別的增長。

JUUL share of the category across both open and closed systems grew to 48% in Q2, up from 44% in the first quarter and its full year 2018 share of 33%.

JUUL 在開放式和封閉式系統類別中的份額從第一季度的 44% 和 2018 年全年的 33% 增長到第二季度的 48%。

JUUL continues to be the category leader despite the removal of certain flavors at retail that caused the first quarter sequential volume slowdown.

JUUL 仍然是該類別的領導者，儘管零售中取消了某些口味導致第一季度連續銷量放緩。

While competitors have responded by increasing the availability of nontraditional flavors, we believe their tactics will ultimately be addressed with full implementation of FDA's ENDS guidance later this year.

雖然競爭對手通過增加非傳統口味的可用性來應對，但我們相信他們的策略最終將隨著今年晚些時候 FDA 的 ENDS 指南的全面實施而得到解決。

Internationally, JUUL continues to make progress, expanding to additional markets.

在國際上，JUUL 繼續取得進展，擴展到更多市場。

Since April, JUUL launched in several new markets, which include Ireland, South Korea, Austria and the Philippines.

自 4 月以來，JUUL 在幾個新市場推出，包括愛爾蘭、韓國、奧地利和菲律賓。

JUUL plans to launch additional markets by the end of this year, it's still early days for JUUL international distribution.

JUUL 計劃在今年年底前推出更多市場，JUUL 國際分銷仍處於早期階段。

However, we are working to establish a measurement system that appropriately captures trade channels in overseas markets and provides a more complete view on consumer takeaway.

但是，我們正在努力建立一個衡量系統，以適當地捕捉海外市場的貿易渠道，並提供更完整的消費者外賣視圖。

Providing thoughtful solutions to address youth e-vapor use is a top priority.

提供周到的解決方案來解決青少年電子蒸汽的使用問題是重中之重。

We know that the future viability of these products is at risk unless more is done to reverse the underage e-vapor use trend.

我們知道，除非採取更多措施來扭轉未成年人使用電子蒸汽的趨勢，否則這些產品的未來生存能力將面臨風險。

We strongly believe that raising the legal age nationwide to purchase all tobacco products to 21 is one important step toward addressing this issue.

我們堅信，將全國范圍內購買所有煙草產品的法定年齡提高到 21 歲是解決這一問題的重要一步。

So far, our advocacy has helped drive significant progress at both the federal and state levels.

到目前為止，我們的宣傳已幫助推動聯邦和州層面取得重大進展。

Earlier this month, Ohio became the 18th state to make 21 the legal age of purchase.

本月早些時候，俄亥俄州成為第 18 個將 21 歲定為法定購買年齡的州。

And now over half of the U.S. population is covered by legislation requiring 21 as the minimum age.

現在，超過一半的美國人口都受到要求 21 歲為最低年齡的立法的保護。

Bipartisan federal legislation has also been introduced with broad support so the effort has strong momentum.

兩黨聯邦立法也得到了廣泛支持，因此這一努力勢頭強勁。

We believe it is critical to preserve e-vapor products as an option for the more than 13 million adults who use them and the millions more adult smokers who are interested in noncombustible alternatives.

我們認為，將電子蒸汽產品作為超過 1300 萬使用它們的成年人和數百萬對不可燃替代品感興趣的成年吸煙者的一種選擇，這一點至關重要。

Earlier this month in the case pending against FDA and federal court in Maryland, the court revised PMTA deadlines for new tobacco products on the market as of August 8, 2016, to be May 2020.

本月早些時候，在針對馬里蘭州 FDA 和聯邦法院的未決案件中，法院將 2016 年 8 月 8 日新煙草產品上市的 PMTA 截止日期修改為 2020 年 5 月。

According to the court order, new products for which applications have not been filed within this period will be subject to FDA enforcement discretion.

根據法院命令，在此期間未提交申請的新產品將受到 FDA 執法自由裁量權的約束。

We expect the new time lines to present a challenge for all of our companies impacted by the court's ruling.

我們預計新的時間表將對我們所有受法院裁決影響的公司提出挑戰。

JUUL has invested significant resources in preparing their applications and we are offering regulatory consulting services.

JUUL 投入了大量資源來準備他們的申請，我們提供監管諮詢服務。

In summary, our 2019 plans remain on track.

總之，我們的 2019 年計劃仍在進行中。

We're operating at a rapidly changing industry.

我們經營的行業瞬息萬變。

We've long anticipated consumer adoption of new types of products with potentially lower risk.

長期以來，我們一直預計消費者會採用風險可能較低的新型產品。

This is one of the main reasons we supported FDA regulation many years ago to facilitate this change and it's why we've invested in the leading noncombustible products.

這是我們多年前支持 FDA 監管以促進這一變化的主要原因之一，也是我們投資領先的不可燃產品的原因。

The dynamics during the first half of the year further validate our strategy.

今年上半年的動態進一步驗證了我們的策略。

With increasing success migrating adult smokers to noncombustible products, we're pleased that our strong core businesses are well positioned to provide profit growth through this transition.

隨著成年吸煙者越來越成功地轉向不燃產品，我們很高興我們強大的核心業務能夠通過這一轉變提供利潤增長。

We continue to believe that we're building a business platform that enhances our ability to deliver solid performance and returns to shareholders over time and across a variety of scenarios.

我們仍然相信，我們正在構建一個業務平台，該平台可以增強我們隨著時間的推移和在各種情況下為股東提供可靠業績和回報的能力。

We reaffirm our guidance to deliver full year 2019 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $4.15 to $4.27.

我們重申我們的指導意見，即實現 2019 年全年調整後攤薄每股收益 4.15 美元至 4.27 美元。

This range represents a growth rate of 4% to 7% from a 2018 adjusted diluted EPS base of $3.99.

該範圍表示從 2018 年調整後的攤薄每股收益基數 3.99 美元增長 4% 至 7%。

I'll now turn it over to Billy to provide more detail on our performance and other investments.

我現在將其轉交給比利，以提供有關我們的績效和其他投資的更多詳細信息。

Thanks, Howard, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，霍華德，大家早上好。

We'll begin with additional color on our smokeable products segment.

我們將從我們的可吸產品部分添加顏色開始。

Reported domestic cigarette volume increased 0.3% in the second quarter as trade inventory dynamics more than offset the industry rate of decline and year-over-year retail share declines.

第二季度報告的國內捲煙銷量增長 0.3%，因為貿易庫存動態抵消了行業下降率和零售份額同比下降的影響。

And adjusted for inventory movements and other factors, smokeable products segment cigarette volume declined by an estimated 7% for both the second quarter and first half.

並根據庫存變動和其他因素進行調整後，第二季度和上半年的可吸產品部門捲菸銷量估計下降了 7%。

In the second quarter, the smokable products segment expanded OCI margins by 1.8 percentage points to 54.4%, driven by higher pricing and lower controllable cost, partially offset by higher resolution cost.

第二季度，受更高定價和更低可控成本的推動，吸煙產品部門的 OCI 利潤率擴大了 1.8 個百分點，達到 54.4%，但部分被更高的分辨率成本所抵消。

In the smokeable products segment, strong price realization reflects both pricing actions and greater efficiency and use of promotional resources, thanks to investments made in trade programs, data analytics and consumer data.

在可吸產品領域，由於在貿易計劃、數據分析和消費者數據方面的投資，強勁的價格實現反映了定價行為以及更高的效率和促銷資源的使用。

Net price realization was 7% in the second quarter and 7.7% for the first half.

第二季度淨價實現率為 7%，上半年為 7.7%。

The mobile rewards program continue to resonate with adult smokers and drive visits to mobile.com.

移動獎勵計劃繼續引起成年吸煙者的共鳴，並推動對 mobile.com 的訪問。

In July, PM USA hit a terrific milestone with over 2 million enrollees and more than 100 million pack codes entered since the program launched in January.

7 月，PM USA 達到了一個了不起的里程碑，自該計劃於 1 月啟動以來，已有超過 200 萬註冊者和超過 1 億個包裝代碼輸入。

Beginning in April, PM USA expanded Marlboro Smooth Ice in the resale pack nationally, which is now distributed in over 113,000 retail stores.

從 4 月開始，PM USA 在全國范圍內擴大了 Marlboro Smooth Ice 的轉售包裝，目前在超過 113,000 家零售店銷售。

Marlboro Smooth Ice continues to receive positive feedback from adult smokers and the trade.

Marlboro Smooth Ice 繼續收到成年吸煙者和行業的積極反饋。

Between July and September, adult smokers can earn up to 3x their rewards points for every pack of Marlboro Smooth Ice entered.

在 7 月至 9 月期間，成年吸煙者每購買一包 Marlboro Smooth Ice 即可獲得高達 3 倍的獎勵積分。

We expect this offer to encourage trial of Marlboro Smooth Ice and drive repeat purchase among adult smokers.

我們希望此優惠能夠鼓勵試用 Marlboro Smooth Ice 並推動成年吸煙者重複購買。

Building on its early success in the Western U.S., Nat Sherman expanded Nat's to all 50 states in the second quarter.

基於其在美國西部的早期成功，Nat Sherman 在第二季度將 Nat's 擴展到所有 50 個州。

Nat's competes in the super-premium segment and offers adult smokers a unique cigarette proposition of simply tobacco and water.

Nat's 在超高端市場競爭，為成年吸煙者提供一種獨特的香煙產品，僅含煙草和水。

And in cigars, volume grew 2.6% in the second quarter and Black & Mild continued its strength in the premium tip cigar segment.

在雪茄方面，第二季度的銷量增長了 2.6%，而 Black & Mild 繼續在優質尖頭雪茄領域保持強勢。

On the legislative front, we continue to monitor cigarette state excise tax increases.

在立法方面，我們繼續監測捲菸州消費稅的增加。

On July 1, SET increases in 2 states.

7 月 1 日，SET 在 2 個州增加。

Illinois and New Mexico went into effect, bringing the weighted average SET as of July 1 to $1.82 per pack, up $0.03 from $1.79 per pack when compared to both year-end 2018 and the first half of 2019.

伊利諾伊州和新墨西哥州開始生效，使截至 7 月 1 日的加權平均 SET 價格從每包 1.79 美元上漲 0.03 美元，與 2018 年底和 2019 年上半年相比，每包 1.82 美元。

In smokeless, USSTC expanded adjusted OCI margins by 4.1 percentage points to a remarkable 74% in the second quarter driven by higher pricing and lower costs.

在無菸產品方面，受價格上漲和成本降低的推動，USSTC 在第二季度將調整後的 OCI 利潤率擴大了 4.1 個百分點，達到驚人的 74%。

USSTC's retail share declined 0.2 in the second quarter to 53.9%.

USSTC 的零售份額在第二季度下降了 0.2% 至 53.9%。

Copenhagen's retail share grew 0.3 share point to 34.6% and Skoal's retail share declined 0.6 share point to 15.8%.

哥本哈根的零售份額增長 0.3 個百分點至 34.6%，乾杯的零售份額下降 0.6 個百分點至 15.8%。

In May, USSTC opened the Original Snuff Shop in downtown Nashville.

5 月，USSTC 在納什維爾市中心開設了原始鼻煙店。

The Original Snuff Shop allows adult dippers to immerse themselves in Copenhagen's rich 200-year heritage and reinforces the brand's already strong equity among adult dippers.

Original Snuff Shop 讓成年鼻煙客沉浸在哥本哈根 200 年豐富的傳統中，並加強了該品牌在成年鼻煙客中的強大資產。

Turning to our alcohol assets.

轉向我們的酒精資產。

In wine, the premium segment continues to be highly competitive.

在葡萄酒領域，高端市場的競爭依然激烈。

Ste.

Ste。

Michelle delivered adjusted operated companies income of $19 million, down 29.6% in the second quarter, primarily due to higher costs and unfavorable premium mix.

米歇爾第二季度實現調整後運營公司收入 1900 萬美元，下降 29.6%，這主要是由於成本增加和不利的保費組合。

To help reinvigorate its portfolio, Ste.

為了幫助重振其投資組合，Ste。

Michelle is making investments to modernize its marketing approach through digital and packaging innovation, including the first quarter launch of 14 Hands and aluminum cans.

Michelle 正在投資通過數字和包裝創新實現其營銷方式的現代化，包括第一季度推出的 14 Hands 和鋁罐。

In beer, adjusted earnings from our equity investment in ABI were $212 million in the second quarter, up more than 35% year-over-year reflecting Altria's share of ABI's first quarter results.

在啤酒方面，第二季度我們對 ABI 股權投資的調整後收益為 2.12 億美元，同比增長超過 35%，反映了奧馳亞在 ABI 第一季度業績中的份額。

I'll turn briefly to our investment in cannabis.

我將簡要談談我們對大麻的投資。

With its well-capitalized balance sheet, we believe Cronos is making good progress in executing against its growth strategy.

憑藉其資本充足的資產負債表，我們相信 Cronos 在執行其增長戰略方面取得了良好進展。

Cronos continues to focus on augmenting its management with top talent and investing in intellectual property and differentiated brands.

Cronos 繼續專注於通過頂尖人才加強其管理，並投資於知識產權和差異化品牌。

Cronos also recently announced its agreement to purchase a state-of-the-art production facility in Canada to advance its partnership with Gingko Bioworks and ultimately support large-scale cannabinoid production and efficiency.

Cronos 最近還宣布同意購買加拿大最先進的生產設施，以推進與 Gingko Bioworks 的合作夥伴關係，並最終支持大麻素的大規模生產和效率。

We continue to be excited about the global potential of the rapidly growing cannabis category and believe that U.S. federal legalization is inevitable.

我們繼續對快速增長的大麻類別的全球潛力感到興奮，並相信美國聯邦合法化是不可避免的。

We also believe Altria's capabilities will help Cronos establish a leadership position in such scenario.

我們還相信奧馳亞的能力將幫助 Cronos 在這種情況下確立領導地位。

Moving to our capital allocation.

轉向我們的資本配置。

We continue to return a significant amount of cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks.

我們繼續以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還大量現金。

In the second quarter, we paid $1.5 billion in dividends and have a highly attractive dividend yield.

第二季度，我們支付了 15 億美元的股息，股息收益率極具吸引力。

Altria's current annualized dividend rate of $3.20 per share represents an annual dividend yield of 6.4% as of July 26, 2019.

截至 2019 年 7 月 26 日，奧馳亞目前的年化股息率為每股 3.20 美元，年股息收益率為 6.4%。

In the second quarter, we also repurchased 3.7 million shares for a total cost of $195 million, which concluded our $2 billion share repurchase program.

在第二季度，我們還回購了 370 萬股股票，總成本為 1.95 億美元，完成了我們 20 億美元的股票回購計劃。

Yesterday, the Board authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of 2020.

昨天，董事會批准了一項新的 10 億美元股票回購計劃，我們預計該計劃將在 2020 年底前完成。

Our previously announced cost-reduction program remains on track and we still expect to realize $575 million in annualized cost savings by the end of 2019.

我們之前宣布的成本削減計劃仍在進行中，我們仍然預計到 2019 年底將實現 5.75 億美元的年度成本節約。

The program includes savings from workforce reductions, third-party spending reductions and closure of our Nu Mark operations.

該計劃包括通過裁員、減少第三方支出和關閉我們的 Nu Mark 業務而節省的資金。

Workforce reductions were largely completed in the first quarter so our second quarter results reflect cost savings offsetting more of the incremental interest expense we incurred related to our transactions in the fourth quarter of last year.

裁員在第一季度基本完成，因此我們第二季度的業績反映了成本節約抵消了我們去年第四季度與交易相關的更多增量利息支出。

With that, we'll wrap up and Howard and I will be happy to take your questions.

至此，我們將結束，霍華德和我將很樂意回答您的問題。

While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available in altria.com.

在編制電話時，我會提醒您，今天的收益發布和我們的非 GAAP 對賬可在 altria.com 上獲得。

We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items.

我們還發布了我們通常的季度指標，包括定價、庫存和其他內務管理項目。

With that, I'll open up the question-and-answer period.

有了這個，我將打開問答期。

Operator, do we have any questions?

接線員，我們有什麼問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Judy Hong。

So Howard, I guess, I had a question around the cost category movement that seems to be accelerating, which is driving your reduced volume forecast for the cigarette industry.

所以霍華德，我想，我有一個關於似乎正在加速的成本類別運動的問題，這正在推動你對捲菸行業的銷量預測減少。

If you look at, I guess, a lot of the movement last year, a lot of that came at the back half of the year.

如果你看一下，我猜，去年的很多運動，很多都是在今年下半年發生的。

So I guess, comparisons are probably getting a little bit easier just from that perspective.

所以我想，從這個角度來看，比較可能會變得更容易一些。

So are you expecting kind of that run rate, 1.3% negative category cost movement, on the cigarette volume to stay constant?

那麼，您是否期望捲菸銷量保持不變，即 1.3% 的負麵類別成本變動？

Why do you think that, that number doesn't necessarily fade if you're kind of comping against a tougher comparison in the back half of the year?

你為什麼認為，如果你在今年下半年進行更嚴格的比較，這個數字不一定會消失？

Yes.

是的。

I think you make a good point.

我認為你說得很好。

When you look at the growth that's occurred in the e-vapor category, it really started to grow strongly at the beginning of 2018.

當您查看電子蒸汽類別的增長時，它確實在 2018 年初開始強勁增長。

And certainly, you had a much larger base in the second half of '18 that will compare against in the second half of 2019.

當然，與 2019 年下半年相比，18 年下半年的基數要大得多。

So it certainly could result in a slowdown in the percentage growth of the category.

因此，這肯定會導致該類別的百分比增長放緩。

And frankly, that's why when we look at our annual estimate for the decline rate of the cigarette category, it's a range because I think it would take that into account.

坦率地說，這就是為什麼當我們查看我們對捲菸類別下降率的年度估計時，它是一個範圍，因為我認為它會考慮到這一點。

And then can you just provide a bit more color just in terms of taking down kind of the medium-term guidance, down 4% to 6%, and your level of confidence that, that range is comfortable enough just given that, that projection has come down in the last 2 quarters?

然後你能不能提供更多的顏色來降低中期指導，下降 4% 到 6%，以及你的信心水平，這個範圍足夠舒適，鑑於這個預測已經最近兩個季度下降了？

Sure.

當然。

I think that we originally had a 5-year compound annual decline rate of the cigarette category of 4% to 5%, and we provided that at the end of last year.

我認為我們最初有 4% 到 5% 的捲菸類別的 5 年復合年下降率，我們在去年年底提供了這一數據。

And our thinking was that we knew that there was an acceleration in the growth rate of the e-vapor category, but we also knew from experience, both overseas and in the U.S., that typically an acceleration of the growth rate of a category driven by newly available or more broadly available products tends to run its course in a year or 2. And so we felt fairly good at that point given the activity in the marketplace at 4% to 5%.

我們的想法是，我們知道電子蒸汽類別的增長率正在加速，但我們也從海外和美國的經驗中了解到，通常由以下因素驅動的類別的增長率加速新產品或更廣泛使用的產品往往會在一兩年內完成它的進程。因此，考慮到市場活動在 4% 到 5% 之間，我們在這一點上感覺相當不錯。

In the second quarter of this year, a couple of things have happened that caused us to increase the top end of that decline range.

今年第二季度，發生了幾件事，導致我們提高了下降範圍的上限。

First of all, IQOS was approved.

首先，IQOS獲批。

And I think that IQOS is going to be on a nice growth trajectory as it expands nationwide over the next couple of years.

而且我認為 IQOS 將在未來幾年內在全國范圍內擴張，從而保持良好的增長軌跡。

So that's an additional influence on the cigarette category decline rate.

所以這是對香菸類別下降率的額外影響。

And we also made our investment in on!.

我們還對 on! 進行了投資。

We think it's got a very strong portfolio of nicotine-containing pouches, and of course, it will have access to our infrastructure.

我們認為它有一個非常強大的含尼古丁袋產品組合，當然，它可以訪問我們的基礎設施。

And then on top of that, we've also had increased momentum behind increasing the minimum age to purchase to 21.

最重要的是，我們將最低購買年齡提高到 21 歲的勢頭也越來越大。

We've now got 50% of U.S. population in jurisdictions where the minimum age to purchase to 21.

我們現在有 50% 的美國人居住在最低購買年齡為 21 歲的司法管轄區。

So we thought, given that range of changes, that it made sense to broaden the decline range for the cigarette category over the next 5 years.

因此，我們認為，鑑於變化範圍，擴大未來 5 年捲菸類別的下降範圍是有意義的。

Okay.

好的。

And then my last question, Howard, just on JUUL.

然後我的最後一個問題，霍華德，就在 JUUL 上。

So in December -- or I guess, in February, you laid out your key transaction assumptions around JUUL, both U.S. and internationally.

所以在 12 月——或者我猜，在 2 月，你圍繞美國和國際的 JUUL 制定了你的關鍵交易假設。

So now that you obviously have invested in the business for 7 months or so, can you provide us with some color on how those assumptions have changed, if at all and whether the PMTA deadline being pulled forward impact some of those assumptions going forward?

因此，既然您顯然已經對該業務進行了 7 個月左右的投資，您能否為我們提供一些關於這些假設如何改變的顏色，如果有的話，以及 PMTA 截止日期的提前是否會影響其中的一些假設？

Sure.

當然。

I think if you looked at our assumptions, I think we expected that JUUL would have a quite strong revenue growth following our investment.

我想如果你看看我們的假設，我認為我們預計 JUUL 在我們投資後會有相當強勁的收入增長。

And I think we also had a belief that there was quite an attractive opportunity at the gross margin line as well.

而且我認為我們也相信毛利率線也有相當有吸引力的機會。

I have to say in the first half of this year, JUUL has performed quite strongly against both of those assumptions, and we feel very good about their performance there.

我不得不說，在今年上半年，JUUL 在這兩個假設下的表現都非常強勁，我們對他們在那裡的表現感到非常滿意。

With regard to developing operating companies income, both domestically and overseas, I think it's -- we're not yet at a stage where we've got the information necessary to judge that.

關於在國內和海外發展運營公司的收入，我認為 - 我們還沒有達到判斷這一點所需信息的階段。

There's still a bit investment spending mode, both domestically and overseas.

還是有點投資消費模式，國內外都有。

And I think it's simply too soon to make a judgment on the progress they're making overseas, that's more of early days there.

而且我認為現在對他們在海外取得的進展做出判斷還為時過早，那是早期的事情。

With regard to your question about the change in the filing date for their PMTA, there is no question that the due date for filing a PMTA and all the e-vapor products being moved to May of next year represents a significant challenge for all the companies that are impacted by it.

關於您關於更改 PMTA 申請日期的問題，毫無疑問，提交 PMTA 的截止日期和所有電子蒸汽產品的截止日期都被移至明年 5 月，這對所有公司來說都是一個重大挑戰受其影響的。

And certainly, JUUL is very focused on continuing to work on that, continuing to ramp up their resource investment, and we're providing them with consulting resources in the regulatory space as well.

當然，JUUL 非常專注於繼續致力於此，繼續增加他們的資源投資，我們也在監管領域為他們提供諮詢資源。

But that certainly raised the pressure on, I think, all the companies in the e-vapor space.

但我認為，這無疑給電子蒸汽領域的所有公司帶來了壓力。

With that said, I think the way that JUUL's performance has evolved here over the last several months, they should have a very strong case to make in their PMTA.

話雖如此，我認為 JUUL 過去幾個月在這裡的表現演變的方式，他們應該在他們的 PMTA 中有一個非常有力的理由。

If you look at their response to the increase in youth usage, JUUL took very aggressive action in the third quarter of last year by removing their nontraditional flavored products from retail.

如果你看一下他們對年輕人使用量增加的反應，JUUL 在去年第三季度採取了非常積極的行動，將他們的非傳統風味產品下架。

They are really the only major player to have done that, and I think that was a big step forward in demonstrating their responsibility and their concern for the issue.

他們確實是唯一這樣做的主要參與者，我認為這是在展示他們的責任和對這個問題的關注方面向前邁出的一大步。

In addition, they have also been very supportive of raising the minimum age to purchase to 21.

此外，他們也非常支持將最低購買年齡提高到 21 歲。

And a lot of those laws kicked in July 1, and so we're going to start to see the impact of that going forward.

很多這樣的法律在 7 月 1 日生效，所以我們將開始看到它對未來的影響。

And so I think that when you compare them to other players in the e-vapor category, they've been more aggressive in addressing the youth issue.

所以我認為，當你將他們與電子蒸汽類別中的其他玩家進行比較時，他們在解決青年問題方面更加積極。

Secondly, I think they are also the primary driver of increased switching of adult cigarette smokers to the e-vapor category.

其次，我認為它們也是成年吸煙者越來越多地轉向電子蒸汽產品的主要驅動力。

And of course, that's something that the FDA is going to consider in looking into PMTA as whether or not the company who's filing for the PMTA is having a significant impact on moving people down the continuum of harm.

當然，這也是 FDA 在調查 PMTA 時要考慮的事情，因為申請 PMTA 的公司是否對使人們遠離傷害連續體產生重大影響。

So I think they have a very good science and evidence to support their application, but there is no doubt that the shortened time line represents an increased challenge for everybody.

所以我認為他們有很好的科學和證據來支持他們的申請，但毫無疑問，縮短的時間線對每個人來說都是一個更大的挑戰。

Your next question comes from Vivien Azer of Cowen and Company.

你的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Vivien Azer。

So my first question is on the cigarette volume outlook as well.

所以我的第一個問題也是關於捲菸銷量的前景。

I just wanted to be entirely clear, Howard.

我只是想說清楚，霍華德。

As you guys have revised to down 5% to 6%, what does that assume in terms of the evolution of cross-category conversion?

你們已經將降幅下調 5% 至 6%，這對跨類別轉化的演變有何假設？

Well, I think given that the range is 5% to 6% and for the first half, we are at a 5.5% decline rate, it actually covers quite a broad range of scenarios in the back half of the year.

好吧，我認為考慮到範圍是 5% 到 6%，而上半年我們的下降率為 5.5%，它實際上涵蓋了下半年相當廣泛的情景。

It would still be supportive even if the volume in the back half of the year for the cigarette category declined at a lower rate.

即使今年下半年捲菸類別的銷量下降速度較低，它仍然會起到支撐作用。

And certainly, that could happen, it was raised earlier on in the call, that there is certainly a tougher comp for the e-vapor category in the back half of last year.

當然，這可能會發生，在電話會議的早些時候有人提出，去年下半年的電子蒸汽類別肯定會有更艱難的競爭。

So it certainly allows for a slowdown in the decline rate of the cigarette category.

所以它肯定允許捲菸類別的下降速度放緩。

And it also allows for a continuation of the strong growth in e-vapor.

它還允許電子蒸汽繼續強勁增長。

I have to say that I don't believe we're going to have a significant impact in the second half of this year from IQOS because it's going to be in a limited geography, that's probably more of a future year impact.

我不得不說，我不相信我們會在今年下半年對 IQOS 產生重大影響，因為它會在有限的地理範圍內，這可能更多是未來一年的影響。

But the benefit of having a 5% to 6% range covers quite a broad set of scenarios for the second half of the year.

但 5% 至 6% 的範圍的好處涵蓋了今年下半年相當廣泛的情景。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

But suffice it to say then, if the first half is down 5.5%, at the midpoint of your now revised full year guidance, it does not contemplate a meaningful step function or in terms of the cross-category movement, like you're not expecting cross-category movement to become an even bigger headwind in the back half, is that fair?

但我只想說，如果上半年下降 5.5%，在你現在修訂的全年指導的中點，它不會考慮有意義的階躍函數或跨類別運動，就像你沒有期望跨類別運動在後半部分成為更大的逆風，這公平嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think that's largely fair.

我認為這在很大程度上是公平的。

And I think that given the much larger second half last year number of e-vapors and the larger volume of e-vapor in the back half of last year, I think we thought that was prudent.

而且我認為，鑑於去年下半年的電子蒸汽數量和去年下半年的電子蒸汽數量更大，我認為我們認為這是謹慎的。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

I agree with that, for sure.

我當然同意這一點。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just my other question is on the moist smokeless tobacco category.

然後我的另一個問題是關於潮濕無菸煙草類別。

So we've seen category volumes decline for 6 consecutive quarters now.

因此，我們已經看到品類數量連續 6 個季度下降。

You called out the impact of both e-vapor as well as other oral tobacco products.

您提到了電子蒸汽和其他口腔煙草產品的影響。

So can you just offer some color on how you're thinking about that category through the rest of the year?

那麼，在今年餘下的時間裡，您能否就您對該類別的看法提供一些顏色？

And perhaps on a 5-year basis, cause seemingly the outlook for moist smokeless tobacco has changed in line with cigarettes?

也許在 5 年的基礎上，似乎濕無菸煙草的前景已經隨著捲菸的變化而變化？

Yes.

是的。

I mean I think the change in growth trajectory of the smokeless tobacco category has largely occurred over the last 4 or 5 years.

我的意思是，我認為無菸煙草類別的增長軌蹟的變化主要發生在過去 4 或 5 年內。

We'll remember back 4 or 5 years ago, the smokeless tobacco category was growing 4% to 5% a year.

我們會記得 4 或 5 年前，無菸煙草類別每年增長 4% 至 5%。

And I think the reason for that was that it was the primary recipient of adult cigarette smokers that were looking for an alternative and they were moving to moist smokeless tobacco.

我認為其原因是成年吸煙者的主要接受者正在尋找替代品，他們正在轉向潮濕的無菸煙草。

I think with the increased availability and attractiveness of e-vapor products, and certainly, also now most recently these nicotine-containing pouches, I think that folks that used to go to the moist smokeless tobacco category and drive nice growth there are primarily going to the e-vapor category and I think in the future will have an additional option in nicotine-containing pouches.

我認為隨著電子蒸汽產品的可用性和吸引力的增加，當然，還有最近這些含尼古丁的小袋，我認為過去使用濕潤無菸煙草類別並推動其良好增長的人們主要會e-vapor 類別，我認為未來將在含尼古丁的小袋中有一個額外的選擇。

And so I think that we expect that the category is going to remain kind of at a small decline rate going forward, although we haven't made a precise projection.

因此，我認為我們預計該類別未來將保持小幅下降，儘管我們還沒有做出精確的預測。

I would point out that even given the slowdown in the growth rate of the category, it's still generating quite nice profit growth.

我要指出的是，即使該類別的增長率放緩，它仍然產生了相當不錯的利潤增長。

Your next question is from Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的邦妮赫爾佐格。

I actually wanted to ask about your model, again, in the context of your weaker outlook for the industry cig volumes.

實際上，在您對行業香煙銷量前景不佳的背景下，我實際上想再次詢問您的模型。

Just trying to think about this, if anything has changed with your model in terms of your ability to deliver profit growth over the long term and maybe you could touch further on the different levers you have to pull to offset the ongoing cig volume pressure such as pricing.

試想一下，如果您的模型在您實現長期利潤增長的能力方面發生了任何變化，也許您可以進一步觸及您必須採取的不同槓桿來抵消持續的捲煙銷量壓力，例如價錢。

And Howard, also I'm not sure but I don't think you mentioned price increases negatively impacting your outlook for industry volume, but I imagine that's a factor, too?

霍華德，我也不確定，但我認為你沒有提到價格上漲會對你的行業銷量前景產生負面影響，但我想這也是一個因素？

Sure.

當然。

I think as we look at the opportunity to deliver against our long-term aspiration of 7% to 9% EPS growth, we continue to feel good about the tools we have at our disposal to deliver that over the long term.

我認為，當我們看到實現 7% 至 9% 每股收益增長的長期願望的機會時，我們繼續對我們擁有的長期實現這一目標的工具感到滿意。

And I think it starts off with we think quite a healthy and resilient combustible business.

我認為這始於我們認為相當健康且有彈性的可燃業務。

I think you saw in the first half of this year how the profit growth was quite strong in that business despite the fact that there was a stepped-up decline in the overall industry volume.

我想你在今年上半年看到了，儘管事實上整個行業的數量在逐步下降，但該業務的利潤增長非常強勁。

And of course, the 2 contributors of that -- to that nice profit growth were price increases coming from both list price and improved promotional efficiency and cost reduction in the category.

當然，這兩個貢獻者 - 對這種良好的利潤增長來說，價格上漲來自標價和提高促銷效率以及該類別的成本降低。

And I think we have long believed that, that business is quite resilient and can deliver nice profit growth even in an environment where the industry volume declines step up a bit.

而且我認為我們長期以來一直相信，該業務具有很強的彈性，即使在行業銷量下降的環境中也能實現可觀的利潤增長。

Now of course, in addition to the profit growth opportunity we have with our core businesses, we also expect, once we get HSR approval, to have equity income from JUUL.

當然，現在除了我們核心業務的利潤增長機會外，我們還期望一旦獲得 HSR 批准，就可以從 JUUL 獲得股權收益。

And given JUUL's strong revenue and volume growth this year, we would expect that going forward, in addition to having now the profit growth from our core tobacco businesses, we'd get an equity income contribution from JUUL, and we think that the sum of the growth from our combustible tobacco business plus the 35% contribution to our equity income from JUUL, we think that, that sets us up very well to deliver in the future.

鑑於今年 JUUL 的強勁收入和銷量增長，我們預計未來除了核心煙草業務的利潤增長外，我們將從 JUUL 獲得股權收入貢獻，我們認為總和我們認為，我們可燃煙草業務的增長加上 JUUL 對我們股權收入的 35% 貢獻，這為我們在未來實現目標奠定了良好的基礎。

And then, of course, as their international business develops, that is a further incremental opportunity for profit growth as a 35% economic interest brings that to our equity income line as well.

然後，當然，隨著他們國際業務的發展，這是利潤增長的進一步增量機會，因為 35% 的經濟利益也將其帶入我們的股權收入線。

So I don't know that we feel that our model has really changed on how we would deliver, although I have to acknowledge we've widened the range a bit, but we still feel very comfortable about our long-term 7% to 9% EPS aspiration.

所以我不知道我們是否覺得我們的模型在交付方式上真的發生了變化，儘管我不得不承認我們已經稍微擴大了範圍，但我們仍然對我們的長期 7% 到 9% 感到非常滿意% EPS 吸入。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then speaking of JUUL, is there anything you can share with us in terms of the improvements maybe you've been seeing in JUUL's business, either sequentially or year-over-year?

然後說到 JUUL，就您在 JUUL 業務中看到的連續或同比改進而言，您有什麼可以與我們分享的嗎？

And you touched on their expansion internationally and that seems to be going quite well, but they have been investing quite a bit to build that growth.

你談到了他們的國際擴張，這似乎進展順利，但他們已經投入了大量資金來實現這種增長。

So just how should we think about JUUL's model, I guess, over the long term?

那麼我想，從長遠來看，我們應該如何看待 JUUL 的模式？

Obviously, we don't have a lot of visibility yet, but maybe you could shed a little bit of light on that for us, please?

顯然，我們還沒有太多的知名度，但也許你可以為我們闡明一點，好嗎？

Sure.

當然。

I think there's been quite a bit of change in the marketplace in the e-vapor space in the U.S. for the first half of the year.

我認為今年上半年美國電子蒸汽市場發生了相當大的變化。

So JUUL withdrew their flavors.

所以 JUUL 撤回了他們的口味。

There was a slowdown in their volume growth in the first quarter, although they went back to strong volume growth in the second quarter.

儘管他們在第二季度恢復了強勁的銷量增長，但第一季度的銷量增長有所放緩。

So I think that's the first thing I would say, is that despite their withdrawal of nontraditional flavors from retail, they still seem to have a healthy growth profile, which I think it's a positive.

所以我認為這是我要說的第一件事，儘管他們從零售中撤出了非傳統口味，但他們似乎仍然有健康的增長前景，我認為這是積極的。

And that's occurring despite the fact that the other major pod-based manufacturers have not decided to withdraw their flavors from retail.

儘管其他主要的基於豆莢的製造商尚未決定從零售中撤回他們的口味，但這種情況仍在發生。

As a matter of fact, they've increased availability and they've been growing the flavored volume that they have at retail.

事實上，他們已經增加了可用性，並且他們一直在增加零售量。

So certainly, that has an impact on JUUL, but they still had a nice healthy growth rate in the first half of the year despite that.

所以當然，這對 JUUL 有影響，但儘管如此，他們在今年上半年仍然有一個不錯的健康增長率。

And I would expect that JUUL will have a benefit when the FDA finalizes their ENDS guidance and those other players have to join JUUL in restricting the availability of flavors at retail.

我希望當 FDA 最終確定他們的 ENDS 指南並且其他參與者必須加入 JUUL 限制零售口味的可用性時，JUUL 將受益。

So I think that's another -- a positive that is likely to come in the second half of the year.

所以我認為這是另一個 - 可能會在今年下半年出現的積極因素。

So I think overall, in the U.S. market, I think it's been a strong performance for vapor overall and certainly for JUUL.

所以我認為總的來說，在美國市場，我認為蒸汽整體表現強勁，當然對 JUUL 來說也是如此。

I think overseas, it's still early days.

我認為在海外，還為時過早。

And I think it's probably going to take another year to really get the same kind of positive assessment that we're able to get for the U.S. market today.

而且我認為可能還需要一年的時間才能真正獲得與我們今天能夠獲得的美國市場相同的積極評估。

But certainly, their expansion is going well, and I think with the passage of time, we'll see how they do overseas.

但可以肯定的是，他們的擴張進展順利，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們會看到他們在海外的表現。

Your next question is from Michael Lavery of Piper Jaffray.

你的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Michael Lavery。

Can you just touch on what, if anything, you have included for on!

你能不能談談你已經包括在內的內容，如果有的話！

in guidance in the second half?

在下半場指導？

I think it's important to remember, Michael, that we expected to close in the second half.

我認為重要的是要記住，邁克爾，我們預計會在下半場結束。

So from a standpoint of anything material, we don't expect anything material this year from on!.

因此，從任何物質的角度來看，我們預計今年不會有任何物質！

And any more specific on the timing?

還有更具體的時間嗎？

Is that imminent later in the second half?

這會在下半場晚些時候迫在眉睫嗎？

Do you have a sense of when that might happen?

你知道什麼時候會發生嗎？

No.

不。

We're working with the other side, but we expect to close in the second half.

我們正在與另一方合作，但我們預計會在下半年結束。

I would put down, Michael, though that we have agreed in advance of closing that AGDC is going to provide distribution services to expand the product availability at retail that started this month.

我會放下，邁克爾，儘管我們已經在關閉之前同意 AGDC 將提供分銷服務以擴大本月開始的零售產品可用性。

So we are getting the benefit of starting to expand its availability in the marketplace in advance of closing, which I think is a real plus.

因此，我們受益於在關閉之前開始擴大其在市場上的可用性，我認為這是一個真正的好處。

And does that have service revenues related to it?

那有與之相關的服務收入嗎？

Or is it just position the brand to be in -- does it just set up the brand to be in a better position once it closes?

或者它只是定位品牌 - 它是否只是將品牌設置為在關閉後處於更好的位置？

Yes.

是的。

I wouldn't think the service revenues is being at all material, it's really -- the real benefit is that the business is going to get a chance to ramp up so that it is much better positioned to compete with other players post closing.

我不認為服務收入是重要的，它真的 - 真正的好處是業務將有機會增加，以便在關閉後更好地與其他參與者競爭。

And then just looking at Cronos, do you have any involvement in helping partner to shape their plans?

然後看看克羅諾斯，你有沒有參與幫助合作夥伴制定他們的計劃？

Or as far as that contribution to your equity income, is it just sort of you're left with whatever you get?

或者就對您的股權收入的貢獻而言，是否只是您得到什麼就剩下什麼？

No, I think we have quite a bit of influence on their strategy going forward.

不，我認為我們對他們未來的戰略有相當大的影響。

We have the majority of the seats on the Board, and we work very closely through our Board representatives at helping Cronos think through their plans going forward.

我們在董事會中擁有大多數席位，我們通過我們的董事會代表密切合作，幫助 Cronos 思考他們未來的計劃。

And I think we invested in them because we thought they had an excellent management team and a good strategy to begin with.

我認為我們投資於他們是因為我們認為他們擁有優秀的管理團隊和良好的戰略。

And I have to say, we work very well together and I think we're making real progress.

我不得不說，我們合作得很好，我認為我們正在取得真正的進步。

Although we acknowledge in the cannabis space overall, it's early days.

儘管我們總體上承認在大麻領域，但現在還為時尚早。

No, it sounds like good line of thought.

不，這聽起來不錯。

That's nice.

那很好。

And then just on your medium term now 4% to 6% decline outlook for the cigarette category.

然後就中期而言，香菸類別的前景下降 4% 至 6%。

You mentioned the revision having some consideration for things like IQOS being approved and your expansion of distribution for on!

你提到修訂有一些考慮，比如 IQOS 被批准和你的分銷擴展！

and of course, the vapor momentum we're seeing.

當然，還有我們看到的蒸汽動量。

Is it fair to assume that if IQOS had stronger momentum than in some markets more, something like Japan perhaps, clearly, that would be a very different number.

可以假設如果 IQOS 的勢頭比某些市場更強，比如日本，顯然，那將是一個非常不同的數字。

At the moment, you have -- it seems like a pretty modest -- conservative expectation for that will do.

目前，你對此有——這似乎是一個相當溫和的——保守的期望。

How are you thinking about the 5-year view for that?

您如何看待 5 年的觀點？

Yes.

是的。

I think I would say that, that provides an opportunity for kind of a midrange performance on IQOS.

我想我會說，這為 IQOS 的中檔性能提供了機會。

I can tell you if we had a Japan-like performance, we would be delighted.

我可以告訴你，如果我們有像日本那樣的表現，我們會很高興。

And at some point, we might be considering whether or not to step up the decline rate again.

在某個時候，我們可能會考慮是否再次提高下降率。

We feel like there's a fair amount of opportunity for IQOS to grow even within that 4% to 6% decline range.

我們認為，即使在 4% 至 6% 的下降範圍內，IQOS 仍有相當大的增長機會。

Because our assumption is that given the rapid growth rate we've seen in e-vapor in 2018 and in the first half of 2019, we think that the e-vapor products are broadly available throughout retail and have been for over a year.

因為我們的假設是，鑑於我們在 2018 年和 2019 年上半年看到的電子蒸汽的快速增長，我們認為電子蒸汽產品在整個零售領域廣泛可用並且已經存在一年多了。

And at some point, we think that you're going to reach a saturation point on e-vapor.

在某些時候，我們認為您將達到電子蒸汽的飽和點。

And you might even see an impact from the shakeout of many of the e-vapor products next coming out of the market next year.

您甚至可能會看到明年上市的許多電子蒸汽產品的淘汰所產生的影響。

So I wouldn't necessarily draw a straight line for growth on the e-vapor category and I think that leaves plenty of opportunity for a strong growth on IQOS.

因此，我不一定會為電子蒸汽類別的增長畫一條直線，我認為這為 IQOS 的強勁增長留下了很多機會。

And I think oral nicotine pouches, their overall impact is likely to be smaller than either e-vapor or heat-not-burn.

而且我認為口服尼古丁袋，它們的總體影響可能小於電子蒸汽或加熱不燃燒。

But we do believe that these clean white oral nicotine pouches are likely to appeal, first and foremost, to MST users, but I think are also a good alternative for adult cigarette smokers.

但我們確實相信，這些乾淨的白色口服尼古丁袋可能首先會吸引 MST 用戶，但我認為它們也是成年吸煙者的一個很好的替代品。

And they are much more approachable than traditional moist smokeless tobacco pouches or even snus pouches.

而且它們比傳統的濕潤無菸煙草袋甚至鼻煙袋更容易接近。

Your next question is from Paula Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的保拉考夫曼。

It's Pam Kaufman.

是帕姆·考夫曼。

I just wanted to follow up on the questions about your updated long-term rate of decline of 4% to 6%.

我只是想跟進有關您更新的 4% 至 6% 的長期下降率的問題。

If we assume that your volumes will decline at 5% annually, which is the midpoint of your outlook for the industry through 2023, your volumes would be about 20% to 25% below where they are today.

如果我們假設您的銷量將以每年 5% 的速度下降，這是您對 2023 年行業前景的中點，那麼您的銷量將比今天低 20% 至 25%。

What gives you confidence that you can sustain your long-term growth algorithm and generate -- continue to generate pricing growth in excess of those volume declines?

是什麼讓你有信心維持你的長期增長算法並產生 - 繼續產生超過這些數量下降的定價增長？

And I guess, based on the frequent rate of downward revisions recently for the industry for this year, what should give investors confidence that your outlook for the midterm won't go lower?

而且我猜想，根據今年該行業最近頻繁的向下修正率，應該如何讓投資者相信您的中期前景不會下降？

Sure.

當然。

I think the confidence we have that we can continue to generate nice profit growth out of our combustible segment is driven by the experience we've had in driving profit growth in that business through both pricing and cost management.

我認為，我們有信心可以繼續從我們的可燃物部門產生可觀的利潤增長，這是由我們通過定價和成本管理推動該業務利潤增長的經驗推動的。

And certainly, when we've seen in prior periods a step-up in the decline rate of a volume, typically, we've had the opportunity to continue to drive similar profit growth by utilizing those tools slightly differently going forward.

當然，當我們在前期看到銷量下降速度加快時，通常情況下，我們有機會通過在未來略微不同地利用這些工具來繼續推動類似的利潤增長。

But certainly, in the event that we see a modest slowdown in our ability to grow profit in the combustible segment because of a higher rate of volume decline, we would have a further offset to that to further accelerate profit growth of our EPS coming from the equity income contribution from JUUL.

但可以肯定的是，如果我們看到由於銷量下降率較高而導致可燃部分利潤增長的能力適度放緩，我們將進一步抵消這一影響，以進一步加速我們每股收益的利潤增長來自來自 JUUL 的股權收入貢獻。

And we feel strongly that the sum of our combustible profit growth, added to the equity income we get from JUUL, that, that ought to compare favorably to our ability to grow profit in the past.

我們強烈認為，我們可燃利潤增長的總和，加上我們從 JUUL 獲得的股權收入，應該與我們過去的利潤增長能力相提並論。

With regard to your question about how comfortable are we with 4% to 6% as a 5-year compound annual growth rate of cigarette volume declines, we feel like that's a wide range that covers a whole variety of scenarios, and at this point, we feel quite comfortable giving conditions in the marketplace.

關於你的問題，我們對捲菸銷量的 5 年復合年增長率下降 4% 到 6% 有多滿意，我們覺得這是一個涵蓋各種場景的廣泛範圍，在這一點上，我們很樂意在市場上提供條件。

But I would point out that one of the reasons that we've worked so hard to build the leading portfolio of noncombustible tobacco products is that our belief is that it's hard to predict with precision the pace at which adult cigarette smokers may switch to noncombustible tobacco products in the future.

但我要指出的是，我們努力打造領先的不可燃煙草產品組合的原因之一是，我們相信很難準確預測成年吸煙者轉而使用不可燃煙草的速度未來的產品。

And so what we've done is we've essentially built a product portfolio of noncombustible tobacco products such that if the movement of adult cigarette smokers out of cigarettes into these other product categories accelerates, we have the opportunity to benefit from that movement with profitable products that lead their categories.

因此，我們所做的是，我們基本上已經建立了一個不可燃煙草產品的產品組合，這樣，如果成年吸煙者從香煙轉向這些其他產品類別的速度加快，我們就有機會從這一趨勢中獲益，並獲得盈利引領其類別的產品。

And essentially, if there's a step-down in our ability to grow profitability in the combustible business, we would expect to make it up either in -- with IQOS and heat-not-burn, with on!

從本質上講，如果我們在可燃業務中提高盈利能力的能力有所下降，我們希望通過 IQOS 和加熱不燃燒來彌補它！

and oral nicotine pouches or through our equity income from JUUL.

和口服尼古丁袋或通過我們從 JUUL 獲得的股權收入。

So we think we've hedged that opportunity.

所以我們認為我們已經對沖了這個機會。

Although I have no reason to believe that, that 4% to 6% range is inadequate based on the current market conditions and our understanding of what the future is going to bring.

儘管我沒有理由相信，根據當前的市場狀況和我們對未來的理解，4% 到 6% 的範圍是不夠的。

Also, it seems like there may be a number of regulatory developments coming up this fall.

此外，似乎今年秋天可能會出現一些監管方面的進展。

What do you expect from the next wave of the National Youth Tobacco Survey?

您對下一波全國青年煙草調查有何期待？

And would you expect this to impact JUUL's PMTA approval prospects?

您認為這會影響 JUUL 的 PMTA 批准前景嗎？

And then separately, the FDA indicated that it plans to publish a proposed nicotine rule later this year.

然後，FDA 分別表示計劃在今年晚些時候發布擬議的尼古丁規則。

Do you believe that they'll all stick to this target?

你相信他們都會堅持這個目標嗎？

Sure.

當然。

You're right, we do expect probably in the third quarter to get another update on youth usage of e-vapor products.

你是對的，我們確實預計可能在第三季度再次獲得有關年輕人使用電子蒸汽產品的最新信息。

I think it's hard to determine what exactly those figures will show, but it would not surprise me if you saw youth use of e-vapor products continue at the prior year level or even take a step-up because there's been a number of actions taken to drive down youth use of e-vapor products.

我認為很難確定這些數字究竟會顯示什麼，但如果您看到年輕人對電子蒸汽產品的使用繼續保持上一年的水平，甚至因為採取了一些措施而有所增加，我也不會感到驚訝減少青少年使用電子蒸汽產品。

But I don't know that we've had the time that is passed to get the impact of that.

但我不知道我們是否有足夠的時間來獲得它的影響。

Even the FDA's ENDS guidance on restricting flavors to -- at retail hasn't been finalized yet.

甚至 FDA 關於限制零售口味的 ENDS 指南也尚未最終確定。

And while there's been a benefit from JUUL withdrawing their flavors, the other manufacturers have expanded the availability of flavors.

雖然 JUUL 撤回他們的口味有好處，但其他製造商已經擴大了口味的可用性。

So I think you're going to have to wait until FDA finalizes that guidance and enforces against the other players to get the impact.

所以我認為你將不得不等到 FDA 最終確定該指南並對其他參與者強制執行才能產生影響。

There's been good progress on raising the minimum age to purchase to 21, but I would say the bulk of that impact is at July 1 and moving forward kind of impact, so that's going to take a while.

在將最低購買年齡提高到 21 歲方面取得了很好的進展，但我想說大部分影響是在 7 月 1 日，並且會產生某種影響，所以這需要一段時間。

So I think the expectation is that a lot of the actions that -- and frankly, the FDA has expanded their advertising campaign to discourage youth from using e-vapor products.

因此，我認為期望的是很多行動 - 坦率地說，FDA 已經擴大了他們的廣告活動，以阻止年輕人使用電子蒸汽產品。

There's a lot going on.

發生了很多事情。

I just think that the expectation would be that it's going to have a significant impact going forward, I just don't know that I would expect that it's been a long enough period of time for those actions to see it in the September numbers.

我只是認為人們期望它將對未來產生重大影響，我只是不知道我是否希望這些行動已經有足夠長的時間才能在 9 月份的數字中看到它。

With regard to FDA issuing further guidance on their nicotine regulation, they had indicated that they may publish something later this year.

關於 FDA 發布有關其尼古丁法規的進一步指南，他們表示可能會在今年晚些時候發布一些內容。

Given the past track record, I think that means that it may or may not come out.

鑑於過去的記錄，我認為這意味著它可能會或可能不會出來。

But I think we've communicated before, we think that, ultimately, any implementation of a nicotine [ceiling] on cigarette products we think is a very long-term action, and it would take quite some time for FDA to finalize that regulation and implement it.

但我認為我們之前已經溝通過，我們認為，最終，我們認為對香煙產品實施尼古丁 [上限] 是一項非常長期的行動，FDA 需要相當長的時間才能最終確定該法規和實施它。

And of course, we don't think that what they have proposed in the past is feasible today and we don't think it's supported by the science.

當然，我們不認為他們過去提出的建議在今天是可行的，我們認為它沒有科學依據。

So we may expect to see some short-term progress there, but we think it's a long-term impact.

所以我們可能期望在那裡看到一些短期進展，但我們認為這是一個長期影響。

Your next question is from Chris Growe of Stifel.

你的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

I just had 2 sort of follow-up questions.

我只有兩個後續問題。

I guess, first, have you given any kind of update on receiving FTC approval for your JUUL investment?

我想，首先，你有沒有提供任何關於你的 JUUL 投資獲得 FTC 批准的最新消息？

And I know that your guidance incorporates, you said some modest profit contribution from your investments this year.

而且我知道你的指導包含了你今年投資的一些適度利潤貢獻。

It would seem like you have some profit built in for the year.

看起來您今年已經積累了一些利潤。

Is that presumably in the fourth quarter because we don't have an update yet from -- on this FTC approval?

這大概是在第四季度，因為我們還沒有關於 FTC 批准的最新消息？

Yes.

是的。

Chris, on the FTC, we still expect the approval latter part of this year, beginning of next.

克里斯，關於 FTC，我們仍然希望在今年下半年、明年年初獲得批准。

And I think what we had said previously about both Cronos and JUUL is we had no material impact in our guidance.

我認為我們之前對 Cronos 和 JUUL 所說的是我們對我們的指導沒有實質性影響。

Okay.

好的。

And then in relation to IQOS, it launched in September.

然後關於 IQOS，它於 9 月推出。

I just want to get a sense of the -- is there is a step-up of investment that occurs in the quarter to accommodate the launch of the product because we're thinking about the phasing of earnings?

我只是想了解一下 - 由於我們正在考慮收益的階段性，本季度是否會增加投資以適應產品的推出？

Or are a lot of those expenses already been sort of realized or undertaken as part of the P&L?

或者作為損益表的一部分，這些費用中有很多已經實現或承擔了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

When we issued guidance, we said we incorporated the IQOS lead market.

當我們發布指南時，我們說我們納入了 IQOS 領先市場。

Certainly, there are always puts and takes, but we run various scenarios when we have that range of guidance, and that's all incorporated.

當然，總是有投入和投入，但當我們有這樣的指導範圍時，我們會運行各種場景，而這一切都被納入其中。

Okay.

好的。

Just one final question, which is in relation to the June price increase that occurred in combustible.

最後一個問題與 6 月份可燃物價格上漲有關。

Are there -- do you believe inventories are the right level today?

有沒有 - 你認為今天的庫存水平合適嗎？

Or was there any kind of build given that came a bit of a surprise that occurred around that pricing they might have to work through in the third quarter?

還是考慮到他們可能必須在第三季度完成的定價出現了一些意外，是否有任何類型的構建？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's informative to look at where the inventories ended the second quarter.

我認為查看第二季度結束時的庫存情況會提供很多信息。

Compare that to historical levels and they're essentially in line with historical levels of inventory.

將其與歷史水平進行比較，它們基本上與歷史庫存水平一致。

Your next question is from Owen Bennett of Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Owen Bennett。

Just one question from me.

我只有一個問題。

I just -- if I saw that right on the slide, you said that JUUL is basically driving all the additional adult vapor use.

我只是——如果我在幻燈片上看到這一點，你說 JUUL 基本上推動了所有額外的成人蒸汽使用。

I mean that seems kind of very impressive but I was just wondering in the context, I mean, those competition that haven't removed all their flavors, competition as well spending a lot of money doing TV adverts, et cetera.

我的意思是這看起來有點令人印象深刻，但我只是想知道在上下文中，我的意思是，那些沒有消除所有味道的競爭，競爭以及花費大量資金做電視廣告等等。

What do you think is actually just driving that success of JUUL and actually being a contributor to all that additional growth?

您認為是什麼推動了 JUUL 的成功，並為所有額外的增長做出了貢獻？

You're right.

你說得對。

I think JUUL has had an impressive first half and they've had some challenges that they've taken on that the other participants haven't.

我認為 JUUL 上半場表現令人印象深刻，他們遇到了一些其他參與者沒有遇到的挑戰。

And frankly, I think it's further evidence of the fact that amongst adult tobacco consumers, I think JUUL has real brand equity and I think it has a superior product.

坦率地說，我認為這進一步證明了一個事實，即在成年煙草消費者中，我認為 JUUL 擁有真正的品牌資產，而且我認為它擁有優質的產品。

And I think that as more and more adult tobacco consumers are exposed to the product, I think, increasingly, folks are adding JUUL to their tobacco product use.

而且我認為，隨著越來越多的成年煙草消費者接觸到該產品，我認為越來越多的人將 JUUL 添加到他們的煙草產品使用中。

And as you saw from the numbers, that they're setting down their cigarettes and moving over exclusively to e-vapor, I think, in increasing numbers as well.

正如你從數字中看到的那樣，我認為，他們正在放下香煙並完全轉向電子蒸汽，而且人數也在增加。

So I've been very pleased by it.

所以我一直很高興。

Certainly, there's a high level of competitive activity in the marketplace, but I think that JUUL has performed quite admirably in the first half of this year despite all that activity.

當然，市場上存在高水平的競爭活動，但我認為儘管存在所有這些活動，但 JUUL 在今年上半年的表現還是相當令人欽佩的。

Okay.

好的。

And just one more follow-up in terms of you said there's a likely continued increase in youth usage and I'd imagine, obviously, that's going to be a key focus over PMTA.

還有一個跟進，你說年輕人的使用可能會持續增加，我想，很明顯，這將成為 PMTA 的重點。

So all the players will need to go grasp it, potentially how much of their volumes are coming from youth?

所以所有的球員都需要去把握它，他們的銷量中有多少可能來自年輕人？

So I mean, obviously, JUUL driving all the additional adult use, if youth usage is going to increase, I mean, have you got any sort of idea of how much share of that JUUL is taken or whether that's dropping off now?

所以我的意思是，很明顯，JUUL 推動了所有額外的成人使用，如果年輕人的使用量要增加，我的意思是，你是否知道 JUUL 的使用量有多少，或者現在是否正在下降？

Yes.

是的。

I really don't, and I don't know that I'm in a position to be able to forecast what the youth numbers are going to show in the third quarter when they come out.

我真的不知道，我不知道我是否能夠預測青年數據在第三季度出來時會顯示什麼。

I just know from experience back in the late '90s, when you had a step-up in youth use of cigarettes, a similar very comprehensive effort was put in place to drive down youth usage of cigarettes.

我只是從 20 世紀 90 年代後期的經驗中了解到，當青少年捲菸使用量增加時，一項類似的非常全面的努力已經到位，以降低青少年捲菸的使用量。

It was ultimately quite successful.

它最終非常成功。

But the impact of all that activity, it didn't happen in a quarter or 2, it happened over the following 1 to 3 or 4 years.

但是所有這些活動的影響並不是在一個季度或兩個季度內發生的，而是在接下來的 1 到 3 年或 4 年內發生的。

And so I think I just steeled myself to the fact that despite all the progress that's been made, including raising the minimum age to purchase to 21 and jurisdictions with over half the population in progress at the federal level, I sort of just looked at the past.

所以我想我只是讓自己堅定了一個事實，儘管已經取得了所有進展，包括將最低購買年齡提高到 21 歲，並且聯邦一級人口超過一半的司法管轄區正在進步，但我只是看了看過去的。

And I've steeled myself to the fact that even if we're winning that battle, it may take a bit of time for the results to materialize.

我已經堅定地認識到，即使我們贏得了這場戰鬥，也可能需要一些時間才能實現結果。

Okay.

好的。

And has that been a risk we need to see in part by or May next year when the PMTAs got in?

當 PMTA 進入時，我們是否需要在明年或明年 5 月部分看到這種風險？

So 3 to 4 years is not really kind of what's needed in this instance?

那麼 3 到 4 年真的不是這種情況下需要的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Certainly, really, all the e-vapor companies that are now going to be filing in May of next year, they're going to have less time will have passed to allow youth e-vapor rates to decline.

當然，實際上，所有現在將在明年 5 月提交申請的電子蒸汽公司，他們將有更少的時間讓年輕人的電子蒸汽率下降。

So I think that's a risk really across the category for people to file.

因此，我認為這確實是人們提出申請的整個類別的風險。

But I would point out that FDA, I think, has indicated that they appreciate the impact that the e-vapor category is having on converting adult cigarette smokers down the continuum of harm.

但我要指出的是，我認為 FDA 已經表示他們讚賞電子蒸汽類別對使成年吸煙者降低危害連續性的影響。

Clearly, that switching and particularly the switching to e-vapor use without continuing to use cigarettes is accelerating.

顯然，這種轉變，尤其是在不繼續使用香煙的情況下轉向使用電子蒸汽的速度正在加快。

So I think, ultimately, FDA is going to have to balance that favorable adult movement down the continuum of harm, which is quite strong and quite favorable, against the fact that youth e-vapor rates have not yet stepped down.

因此，我認為，最終，FDA 將不得不在危害連續體中有利的成人運動與青少年電子蒸汽率尚未下降的事實之間取得平衡，這種運動非常強大且非常有利。

But I think FDA certainly has access to a lot of expertise and I think they can certainly assess whether or not the step-down is coming and consider that as they review those PMTAs.

但我認為 FDA 肯定可以獲得大量專業知識，我認為他們當然可以評估是否會降級，並在審查這些 PMTA 時考慮這一點。

Your next question comes from Adam Spielman of Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Adam Spielman。

I've got 2 questions, if I can.

如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。

The first one concerns down trading in the existing cigarette business.

第一個涉及現有捲煙業務的低價交易。

So one of the things that clearly you're doing is you're taking prices up and price gaps are widening.

所以很明顯你正在做的一件事就是你在抬高價格並且價格差距正在擴大。

But at the same time, you presented data and it's not the first time.

但與此同時，你提供了數據，這不是第一次了。

But so it's really, there's very little down trading.

但實際上，很少有下跌交易。

That's mainly churn at the bottom end.

這主要是底部的流失。

And I'm really intrigued by that because I don't think it's the historic pattern.

我對此很感興趣，因為我認為這不是歷史模式。

I sort of wonder why it is.

我有點想知道為什麼會這樣。

Is it maybe that actually within, let's say, Marlboro, there are more people buying cheaper variants?

是不是真的有更多人購買更便宜的萬寶路？

Or is there somewhat of an explanation about why there isn't down trading?

或者是否有某種解釋為什麼沒有下跌交易？

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Sure.

當然。

I think you are right that the strength of the premium category in the U.S. has been persistently strong, really, since 2011 when we launched the new Marlboro architecture.

我認為你是對的，自 2011 年我們推出新的萬寶路架構以來，美國高端產品的實力一直很強勁。

And as a matter of fact, since 2011, the overall discount category is down more than a share point.

事實上，自 2011 年以來，整體折扣類別的跌幅超過一個份額點。

So the U.S. market has been quite strong in that regard.

因此，美國市場在這方面一直相當強勁。

In the premium category, it's much larger in the U.S. market than it is in many markets overseas.

在高端類別中，它在美國市場的規模比在許多海外市場要大得多。

So I wouldn't say that this phenomenon that is occurring today is unusual compared to the last 6 or 7 years, I think it's actually more the pattern.

所以我不會說今天發生的這種現象與過去 6 或 7 年相比是不尋常的，我認為它實際上更像是一種模式。

The price gap over the last year or 2 has gone from 29% to 31%.

過去一兩年的價格差距從 29% 上升到 31%。

So it's had a small increase, but I would say that's not a material increase.

所以它有小幅增長，但我想說這不是實質性的增長。

And I think that the strong equity of the premium brands in the category I think has an impact on consumers deciding they'd rather pay a bit more to get their brand of choice rather than move down into discount.

而且我認為，我認為該類別中高端品牌的強大資產會影響消費者決定他們寧願多付一點錢來獲得他們選擇的品牌，也不願降價到折扣。

So I think it's a sign of a very healthy premium category.

所以我認為這是一個非常健康的高端類別的標誌。

Now with regard to whether or not there's movement within the Marlboro portfolio.

現在關於萬寶路產品組合中是否有變動。

Certainly, in the period during the great recession and shortly thereafter, there was an increased movement between both premium price part of the Marlboro portfolio and the special blend.

當然，在經濟大衰退期間和此後不久，萬寶路產品組合的溢價部分和特殊混合產品之間的變動有所增加。

But given the strength of the economy today, there's really not an appreciable movement into that part of the portfolio.

但鑑於當今的經濟實力，投資組合的這一部分確實沒有明顯的變化。

And of course, the pricing that we share each year takes into account the change in the weighted average price across the Marlboro portfolio, so that's factored into the numbers.

當然，我們每年分享的定價都考慮了萬寶路產品組合中加權平均價格的變化，所以這也被計入了數字。

Okay.

好的。

And I just wanted to follow up briefly on an answer you gave to other in the call.

我只是想簡單地跟進一下你在電話中給其他人的回答。

So you said that in 2Q, this is a question about JUUL, that you said in 2Q that JUUL was growing very, very nicely.

所以你說在第二季度，這是一個關於 JUUL 的問題，你在第二季度說 JUUL 的增長非常非常好。

But I was wondering, I know you're not going to quantify that to the last decimal place, but I was wondering, is it relative to the run rate in the second half of last year?

但我想知道，我知道你不會將其量化到小數點後一位，但我想知道，它與去年下半年的運行率有關嗎？

Are we sort of talking volumes up 20%, up 50%, up 100%?

我們是不是說通話量增加了 20%、50%、100%？

Any sort of ballpark in that direction or 10%?

那個方向的任何類型或 10%？

You have to give some sort of ballpark figure for that sort of growth.

對於這種增長，你必須給出某種大概數字。

Sure.

當然。

In the first half of 2019, the category growth was 40% for the overall vapor category, and it was 195% for JUUL, and that's on Slide 18.

2019 年上半年，整體蒸汽類別的類別增長為 40%，JUUL 為 195%，在幻燈片 18 上。

And of course, we also referenced JUUL's share growth on the second quarter compared to the first quarter and the full year 2018.

當然，我們還參考了 JUUL 第二季度與第一季度和 2018 年全年相比的份額增長。

Their share growth was 48% in Q2, up from 44% in Q1 and up from 33% in full year 2018.

他們的份額在第二季度增長了 48%，高於第一季度的 44% 和 2018 年全年的 33%。

Your next question is from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

So following up on your comments related to the PMTA process and the need for filers and the FDA to balance youth usage against the efficacy of e-vapor to convert adult smokers.

因此，請跟進您對 PMTA 流程的評論，以及申報者和 FDA 平衡青少年使用與電子蒸汽轉化成年吸煙者的功效的需求。

I guess I'm looking for a little bit more color on how that factors in to how you may consult JUUL specifically in its PMTA application process.

我想我正在尋找更多關於如何影響您如何在其 PMTA 申請過程中專門諮詢 JUUL 的顏色。

Because on the one hand, it's leading that adult conversion so that's a positive.

因為一方面，它正在引領成人轉變，所以這是積極的。

Yet, on the other hand, it's -- their current product is clearly associated with underage usage and the potential lack of data on the efficacy of their steps to reduce that usage.

然而，另一方面，他們目前的產品顯然與未成年人使用有關，並且可能缺乏關於他們減少使用的步驟的有效性的數據。

Just being in hand by the time approval needs to be granted it just seems a potential liability.

只是在需要獲得批准時就在手，這似乎是一種潛在的責任。

So what's your perspective on those dynamics as it relates to JUUL and how that might impact how they apply or their application in general?

那麼，您對這些與 JUUL 相關的動態有何看法，以及這可能如何影響它們的應用方式或一般應用？

Yes.

是的。

I don't know that I have more to say on that topic.

我不知道關於那個話題我還有更多要說的。

I think the youth usage of e-vapor products is a challenge that every filer is going to have to deal with.

我認為電子蒸汽產品的年輕人使用是每個申報者都必須應對的挑戰。

And I think, ultimately, FDA is going to have to take all of that onboard.

我認為，最終，FDA 將不得不接受所有這些。

I think we have the benefit though that the FDA can approve a product through the PMTA process, and then require the filer to do post-market surveillance.

我認為我們有好處，儘管 FDA 可以通過 PMTA 流程批准產品，然後要求申報者進行上市後監督。

And if they find that the favorable outcomes they expected to come from that product don't materialize in the years that follow, they can withdraw their approval.

如果他們發現他們期望從該產品中獲得的有利結果在接下來的幾年中沒有實現，他們可以撤回批准。

So I think that in a situation like we're faced here with e-vapor where there's very strong conversion of adult cigarette smokers, but we don't yet know whether or not youth rates are going to go down quite rapidly and what the timing will be, that might very well be a situation where post-market surveillance was, frankly, designed for that situation and FDA can approve certain products, require post-market surveillance to essentially change their view based on what happens in the years that follow.

所以我認為，在我們面臨電子煙的情況下，成年香煙吸煙者的轉化率非常高，但我們還不知道年輕人的比例是否會迅速下降，以及何時下降將是，這很可能是一種情況，坦率地說，上市後監督是為這種情況設計的，FDA 可以批准某些產品，要求上市後監督根據隨後幾年發生的情況從根本上改變他們的觀點。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

Yes, that's clear.

是的，這很清楚。

I guess the second question I have is just another follow-up on JUUL and your comments earlier.

我想我的第二個問題只是 JUUL 的另一個跟進和你之前的評論。

I know you said that JUUL has been performing impressively and quite strongly against your going-in expectations year-to-date.

我知道你說過 JUUL 的表現令人印象深刻，並且與你年初至今的預期相比非常強勁。

But just to be clear, is it fair to say it's running above expectations, at least as it relates with the U.S. because I'm just trying to triangulate between the lowering of your smokable volume outlook and the primary role that e-vapor is playing in that and presumably the role that JUUL is playing in that conversion.

但要明確一點，說它超出預期是否公平，至少與美國有關，因為我只是想在降低可吸量前景和電子蒸汽發揮的主要作用之間進行三角測量在這方面，大概是 JUUL 在這種轉變中扮演的角色。

So you just either -- it either suggested JUUL is trending above expectations, your own expectations, or that you've seen better-than-expected performance from some of the other e-vapor brands?

所以你只是 - 它要么表明 JUUL 的趨勢超出預期，你自己的預期，要么你已經看到其他一些電子蒸汽品牌的表現好於預期？

So just maybe can you clarify those dynamics, please?

那麼，也許你能澄清一下這些動態嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I would say that in the first half of the year, JUUL is generally performing in line with our expectations.

我想說，今年上半年，JUUL 的表現總體上符合我們的預期。

I know we had a range of expectations, so I don't know that it's substantially exceeding those expectations.

我知道我們有一系列的期望，所以我不知道它是否大大超出了這些期望。

I would say that one factor that did occur, particularly in the first half of this year that I think probably has an impact on the cigarette category decline rate, is that not only did we see the number of adult vapers increase as we expected it to, going to 13.8 million compared to 12.2 million from June to the end of last year, we also saw a pretty good step-up in the number of adult vapors that are no longer smoking.

我想說的是，確實發生了一個因素，尤其是在今年上半年，我認為這可能對捲菸類別的下降率產生了影響，那就是我們不僅看到成人電子煙用戶的數量如我們預期的那樣增加，從 6 月到去年年底的 1220 萬增加到 1380 萬，我們還看到不再吸煙的成人電子煙數量有了相當大的增長。

And certainly, if somebody goes from smoking to dual using cigarettes and e-vapor then moves all the way to exclusive e-vapor use, that could have a modest step-up on the cigarette decline rate.

當然，如果有人從吸煙轉變為雙重使用香煙和電子蒸汽，然後一路轉向只使用電子蒸汽，這可能會適度提高香煙的下降率。

So certainly, that happened in the first half.

當然，這發生在上半年。

I don't know that we had a hard and fast view on what would happen there but certainly it stepped up.

我不知道我們對那裡會發生什麼有一個嚴格而快速的看法，但肯定會加強。

And compared to history, it's at a higher level than it's been since 2014.

與歷史相比，它處於比 2014 年以來更高的水平。

Okay.

好的。

So just to clarify, so it sounds like JUUL and the industry performing at the higher end of your going-in expectations plus maybe a bit more full conversion, full cessation of smoking than was implied in the baseline, is that a good summary?

所以只是澄清一下，聽起來 JUUL 和這個行業的表現比你預期的更高，而且可能比基線中暗示的更完全轉換，完全戒菸，這是一個很好的總結嗎？

Yes, I think that's right.

是的，我認為這是對的。

Your next question comes from Gaurav Jain of Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

So I have a question on your smokeless tobacco business, where margins are 74%, EBITDA north of $2.

所以我有一個關於您的無菸煙草業務的問題，該業務的利潤率為 74%，EBITDA 超過 2 美元。

So could you expand on there is a risk that you cannibalize your own smokeless business unless the margins are on the scale similar to your current smokeless business?

那麼，除非利潤率與您當前的無菸業務規模相似，否則您能否擴大自己的無菸業務的風險？

So how do we think about that dichotomy?

那麼我們如何看待這種二分法呢？

Yes.

是的。

You're exactly right.

你完全正確。

We're very pleased with the high margins that we're able to achieve in the smokeless category.

我們對我們能夠在無菸類別中實現的高利潤率感到非常滿意。

From a standpoint of on!, we think through time, they will achieve tobacco-like margins.

從 on! 的角度來看，我們認為隨著時間的推移，他們將獲得類似煙草的利潤。

So by tobacco, you mean smokeless-like margins?

所以你說的煙草，是指無菸的邊緣嗎？

That is correct.

那是對的。

Sure.

當然。

Now coming to cigars, I'm aware that it's a very small part of your business.

現在談到雪茄，我知道這只是你們業務的一小部分。

But every year, clearly, there's a three-pronged approach here to flavored cigars.

但是，很明顯，每年都有一種三管齊下的調味雪茄方法。

They will finalize the draft guidance by October '19.

他們將在 19 年 10 月之前完成指南草案。

There will be a PMTA by May 2020.

到 2020 年 5 月將有 PMTA。

And then there's a rule-making process as well.

然後還有一個規則制定過程。

So how should we think about the cigar business long term?

那麼我們應該如何長期考慮雪茄業務呢？

Sure.

當然。

I think we feel good about our cigar business.

我認為我們對我們的雪茄業務感覺良好。

You are right that the FDA has said they're going to finalize some guidance on flavors in cigars later this year.

你是對的，FDA 已經表示他們將在今年晚些時候最終確定一些關於雪茄口味的指南。

I think we, along with others in the industry, have stated that we don't think they have very good signs and evidence base to restrict the availability of flavored cigars.

我認為我們和業內其他人已經聲明，我們認為他們沒有很好的跡象和證據基礎來限制調味雪茄的供應。

So we think, ultimately, that is going to be challenged and we feel that there's a very strong case to challenge that.

所以我們認為，最終，這將受到挑戰，我們認為有一個非常有力的理由來挑戰它。

Secondly, you're right that for products that don't already have a market order because they are grandfathered or have received an SE, they're going to have to file PMTAs on this new accelerated deadline of May of next year.

其次，你是對的，對於那些因為祖父或已經收到 SE 而沒有市場訂單的產品，他們將不得不在明年 5 月這個新的加速截止日期前提交 PMTA。

So for some cigar companies, that could pose a significant issue for them and they may lose the ability to sell some of their cigar products.

因此，對於一些雪茄公司來說，這可能會給他們帶來重大問題，他們可能會失去銷售部分雪茄產品的能力。

By and large, that doesn't apply to us.

總的來說，這不適用於我們。

The vast majority of our cigar products have market orders either because they're grandfathered or have received FDA notices.

我們的絕大多數雪茄產品都有市場訂單，因為它們已經過時或已收到 FDA 通知。

And then, of course, with regard to any rule-making they might make in the longer term relating to flavors or other things, again, they're going to have the obligation to support that with science and evidence.

然後，當然，關於他們可能在長期內製定的與口味或其他事物相關的任何規則制定，他們將再次有義務用科學和證據來支持它。

And we feel good about our ability to make case that our cigar products, in any case, are responsibly participating in the marketplace.

我們對自己有能力證明我們的雪茄產品在任何情況下都以負責任的方式參與市場感到滿意。

Sure.

當然。

And if I can ask one last question.

如果我可以問最後一個問題。

So on cigarettes, what we have seen this year is that pricing has gone up above expectations and volumes have come in below expectations, and that substitute product, which is e-cigarettes, they aren't really taking any pricing and they haven't taken any pricing for 2 years.

因此，在香煙方面，我們今年看到的是價格上漲超出預期，銷量低於預期，而替代產品，即電子煙，他們並沒有真正採取任何定價，也沒有採取任何定價 2 年。

So as we look out, does the e-cigarette cannibalization increase over time as price gaps keep widening?

因此，正如我們所看到的那樣，隨著價格差距不斷擴大，電子煙的蠶食是否會隨著時間的推移而增加？

And what has been your experience over the last 2 years?

在過去的 2 年裡，您的經歷是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

I'm not going to speculate on future pricing.

我不打算推測未來的定價。

I think that consumers are moving into e-vapor because of significant benefits that those products have unrelated to price, and I'm not going to speculate on future pricing.

我認為消費者正在轉向電子蒸汽，因為這些產品具有與價格無關的顯著優勢，我不打算推測未來的定價。

Your next question comes from Petros Voulgaris of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Petros Voulgaris。

We've discussed IQOS's inclusion in MSA before and how that operates as a tax.

我們之前討論過 IQOS 包含在 MSA 中，以及它如何作為一種稅收運作。

But I'm wondering, with respect to how IQOS is counted towards the MSA, will one HeatStick be equivalent to one cigarette or will there be some other measurement?

但我想知道，關於 IQOS 如何計入 MSA，一根 HeatStick 相當於一根香煙，還是會有其他測量方法？

And as a follow-up, are there ways through different product iterations or some other modification for IQOS not to be included in the MSA?

作為後續行動，是否有辦法通過不同的產品迭代或其他一些修改使 IQOS 不包含在 MSA 中？

Yes.

是的。

I think when you think about it, one HeatStick would be the equivalent of one cigarette because the definition incorporates it that way.

我認為當您考慮時，一根 HeatStick 就相當於一根香煙，因為定義就是這樣包含的。

And I'm not going to speculate on what future product iterations could be inside or outside of the MSA.

而且我不打算推測未來的產品迭代可能在 MSA 內部或外部。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Jennifer Maloney of Wall Street Journal.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自華爾街日報的詹妮弗馬洛尼。

I wonder if you can give us an update on direct mailings to your cigarette consumers and onserts or inserts in cigarette packs on behalf of JUUL.

我想知道您是否可以代表 JUUL 向我們提供有關直接郵寄給您的香煙消費者以及香煙包裝中的插入物或插入物的最新信息。

How many have you sent out?

你發了多少？

And what are the redemption rates looking like?

贖回率是什麼樣的？

Yes.

是的。

We don't share level of that detail.

我們不分享那個細節的水平。

Both direct mailings and onserts to date have occurred.

迄今為止，直接郵寄和插入都已經發生。

And I know that there is further activity that's planned between now and the end of the year communicating about the benefits of JUUL, but we haven't shared numbers or fine details on that.

而且我知道從現在到年底之間計劃進行進一步的活動來交流 JUUL 的好處，但我們還沒有分享這方面的數字或細節。

Broadly speaking, have the results of those changed your estimates for sort of what cannibalization you expect to see specifically on your brands from JUUL?

從廣義上講，這些結果是否改變了您對您期望從 JUUL 看到的具體品牌蠶食的估計？

No, it hasn't.

不，它沒有。

I don't think we've seen anything that caused us to change our views on JUUL's growth rate or the cannibalization of our products.

我認為我們沒有看到任何讓我們改變對 JUUL 增長率或我們產品蠶食的看法的事情。

Your next question is from Robert Rampton of UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅伯特·蘭普頓。

Just to follow up on that cannibalization question.

只是為了跟進那個蠶食問題。

So could you give us some more color on what is the cannibalization rate of e-cigarettes?

那麼你能給我們更多關於電子煙的蠶食率是多少的顏色嗎？

Say for every 100 puffs, how many are coming from cigarettes?

假設每吸 100 口煙，有多少來自香煙？

One of your peers put that number at 25%.

您的一位同行將這個數字定為 25%。

Would you be -- would you disagree with that?

你會 - 你會不同意嗎？

Yes, I don't know that I've got a precise point of view on that.

是的，我不知道我對此有一個準確的觀點。

I think we think about it more along the lines of how the category growth rate in e-vapor is developing, and then we take into account all the impacts on the overall cigarette category.

我認為我們更多地按照電子蒸汽類別增長率的發展方式來考慮它，然後我們考慮對整個捲菸類別的所有影響。

I don't know that we've kind of looked at it that way, and I don't know that I have any greater precision to share with you.

我不知道我們是否以這種方式看待它，我也不知道我有更精確的方法可以與您分享。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

So second question, just on IQOS.

那麼第二個問題，關於 IQOS。

Your earlier comments seem to infer that your expected range is between 0 and Japan at 20 and you're at the midpoint so I'm guessing around 10%.

您之前的評論似乎推斷出您的預期範圍在 0 和日本 20 之間，而您處於中點，所以我猜大約是 10%。

Can you give us some color on what your expectations for IQOS in the U.S. are based of?

你能告訴我們你對美國 IQOS 的期望是基於什麼嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I don't know that we've firmed up an expectation for IQOS.

不知道我們已經堅定了對IQOS的期待。

I think our belief -- certainly, we know the experience in a variety of markets overseas.

我認為我們的信念——當然，我們知道在各種海外市場的經驗。

I think our belief is that that's one of the key things we're going to learn in going into the Atlanta test market.

我認為我們的信念是，這是我們在進入亞特蘭大測試市場時要學習的關鍵內容之一。

And I think we'll know probably in the next 6 to 9 months kind of what the U.S. experience is with IQOS.

而且我認為我們可能會在接下來的 6 到 9 個月內知道美國對 IQOS 的體驗。

And of course, we're going to put significant resources and significant activity behind it in order to drive it towards the high end of what it can do in the U.S. But I don't know that we've got a precise answer as to how we think it's going to compare in the U.S. to overseas, but we do know that we're going to put the resources behind it to make sure that it does as well in the U.S. as is humanly possible.

當然，我們將在其背後投入大量資源和大量活動，以推動它走向它在美國所能做的事情的高端。但我不知道我們是否已經得到一個準確的答案我們認為它將如何在美國與海外進行比較，但我們確實知道我們將投入資源以確保它在美國盡可能地發揮作用。

At this time, I would like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉回給管理層作結束語。

Thank you, Christie.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂。

To close, we're on track to deliver against our 2019 earnings guidance.

最後，我們有望實現 2019 年的收益指引。

We believe Altria is well positioned through the combination of excellent profit growth from our core tobacco businesses and strategic positions in key noncombustible product categories to lead our industry through a period of evolution, just as we have in the past.

我們相信，奧馳亞憑藉核心煙草業務的出色利潤增長和在關鍵不可燃產品類別中的戰略地位相結合，處於有利地位，可以像過去一樣引領我們的行業經歷一段發展時期。

Thanks again for joining us, and please contact our Investor Relations team if you have further questions.

再次感謝您加入我們，如果您有其他問題，請聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's conference call.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。