奧馳亞 (MO) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2019 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加奧馳亞集團 2019 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。

Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and the question-and-answer session.

今天的電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括奧馳亞管理層的講話和問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mac Livingston, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services.

我現在想將電話轉給奧馳亞客戶服務部投資者關係副總裁 Mac Livingston 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thanks, Brandy.

謝謝，白蘭地。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。

We're here this morning with Howard Willard, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, our CFO, to discuss Altria's 2019 fourth quarter and full year business results.

今天早上我們和奧馳亞的首席執行官霍華德威拉德在一起；和我們的首席財務官比利·吉福德（Billy Gifford）討論奧馳亞 2019 年第四季度和全年的業務業績。

Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，提供了這些結果。

The release, presentation and quarterly metrics are all available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor App.

發布、演示和季度指標均可在我們的網站 altria.com 和奧馳亞投資者應用程序上獲得。

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2018.

在我們今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們會將結果與 2018 年同期進行比較。

Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results.

我們的評論包含前瞻性和警示性聲明以及對未來結果的預測。

Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

請查看今天收益發布結束時的前瞻性和警示性聲明部分，了解可能導致實際結果與預測存在重大差異的各種因素。

Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board.

未來的股息支付和股票回購仍由奧馳亞董事會酌情決定。

Share repurchases also depend on marketplace conditions and other factors.

股票回購還取決於市場條件和其他因素。

Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles.

奧馳亞根據美國公認會計原則報告其財務業績。

Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis.

今天的電話會議將包含報告和調整後的各種運營結果。

Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results.

調整後的結果不包括影響與報告結果比較的特殊項目。

Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com.

這些非公認會計原則財務措施和對賬的描述包含在今天的收益發布和我們的網站 altria.com 上。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Howard.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給霍華德。

Thanks, Mac, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，Mac，大家早上好。

2019 was a dynamic year for the tobacco category.

2019 年是煙草品類充滿活力的一年。

For Altria, it was a year characterized by 2 distinct stories: the outstanding performance of Altria's core tobacco businesses and significant progress advancing our noncombustible business platform alongside disappointing performance from our JUUL investment.

對於奧馳亞來說，這一年有兩個截然不同的故事：奧馳亞核心煙草業務的出色表現和推進我們的不可燃業務平台的重大進展，以及我們對 JUUL 投資的令人失望的表現。

Across our businesses, our employees accomplished more with less and responsibly delivered outstanding results.

在我們的業務中，我們的員工事半功倍，並負責任地交付了出色的成果。

Despite unexpected challenges with our investment in JUUL, which led to impairment charges and reported losses, we grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by 5.8% and continue to reward our shareholders with growing cash dividends.

儘管我們對 JUUL 的投資面臨意外挑戰，導致減值費用和報告虧損，但我們調整後的攤薄每股收益增長了 5.8%，並繼續以不斷增長的現金股息獎勵我們的股東。

In 2019, we paid $6 billion in dividends to shareholders and increased the dividend for the 54th time in 50 years.

2019 年，我們向股東支付了 60 億美元的股息，這是 50 年來第 54 次增加股息。

Our core tobacco businesses delivered strong financial performance, with each of the smokeable and smokeless product segments delivering high single-digit adjusted operating companies income growth, significantly expanding their adjusted operating companies income margins and maintaining strength on their leading premium brands.

我們的核心煙草業務實現了強勁的財務業績，每個可吸煙和無菸產品細分市場都實現了調整後運營公司收入的高個位數增長，顯著擴大了調整後運營公司的收入利潤率，並保持了領先高端品牌的實力。

In fact, if you look at the performance of our smokeable and smokeless products segments on a combined basis over the past 5 years, 2019 was a high watermark for combined adjusted OCI and margin expansion.

事實上，如果您綜合考慮過去 5 年我們的可吸煙和無菸產品細分市場的表現，2019 年是調整後 OCI 和利潤率擴張的高水位線。

In addition, we exceeded our $575 million cost reduction target, made significant progress advancing and building our noncombustible business platform with the launch of IQOS in 2 lead markets and the completion of the on!

此外，我們超過了 5.75 億美元的成本削減目標，在推進和建設我們的不燃物業務平台方面取得了重大進展，在兩個領先市場推出了 IQOS 並完成了 on!

transaction.

交易。

And we successfully advocated for moving the legal age to purchase all tobacco products to 21 to address social access concerns among youth.

我們成功地倡導將購買所有煙草產品的法定年齡提高到 21 歲，以解決青年人的社會准入問題。

Turning to JUUL.

轉向 JUUL。

We are disappointed in the performance of our JUUL investment in 2019, and we recorded a second impairment of the JUUL investment, which Billy will discuss in more detail shortly.

我們對 2019 年 JUUL 投資的表現感到失望，我們記錄了 JUUL 投資的第二次減值，比利將在稍後更詳細地討論。

It's a critical time for the e-vapor category, and we believe manufacturers must take responsible steps in the short-term to protect the long-term opportunity that the category presents for adult smokers looking for alternatives.

對於電子煙品類而言，這是一個關鍵時刻，我們認為製造商必須在短期內採取負責任的措施，以保護該品類為尋找替代品的成年吸煙者提供的長期機會。

We believe that the e-vapor category in its current form needs a reset, and we believe the most important next steps to create a sustainable path forward are FDA's review and ultimate decisions on PMTA filings and driving down youth usage of e-vapor.

我們認為當前形式的電子蒸汽類別需要重新設置，我們認為創造可持續發展道路的最重要的下一步是 FDA 對 PMTA 申請的審查和最終決定，並降低青少年對電子蒸汽的使用。

This morning, we announced that we've reached an agreement with JUUL to revise some of the terms governing our investment.

今天早上，我們宣布我們已與 JUUL 達成協議，以修改一些管理我們投資的條款。

We've agreed with JUUL to continue providing regulatory affairs services, including supporting JUUL's efforts to prepare and submit its PMTA filings by May 2020.

我們已與 JUUL 達成協議，繼續提供監管事務服務，包括支持 JUUL 努力在 2020 年 5 月之前準備和提交其 PMTA 文件。

And we will discontinue all other services by the end of March 2020.

我們將在 2020 年 3 月之前停止所有其他服務。

Our regulatory affairs team is working collaboratively with JUUL on its PMTA effort and we're committed to helping JUUL achieve this critical milestone.

我們的監管事務團隊正在與 JUUL 合作開展 PMTA 工作，我們致力於幫助 JUUL 實現這一關鍵里程碑。

We also agreed that JUUL will create a new or independent board structure after we receive antitrust clearance from the FTC.

我們還同意，在獲得 FTC 的反壟斷許可後，JUUL 將創建一個新的或獨立的董事會結構。

We believe the new board structure will provide diverse perspectives and independent expertise to help JUUL's management team successfully and responsibly navigate the very dynamic e-vapor market going forward.

我們相信新的董事會結構將提供多元化的視角和獨立的專業知識，以幫助 JUUL 的管理團隊成功並負責任地駕馭未來充滿活力的電子蒸汽市場。

For Altria, we remain committed to preventing kids and non-tobacco users from using tobacco products.

對於奧馳亞，我們仍然致力於防止兒童和非煙草使用者使用煙草產品。

According to the 2019 Monitoring the Future, underage use of cigarettes is at a historic low at 3.7%, down more than 85% from its 1997 peak.

根據 2019 年監測未來，未成年人使用捲菸的比例處於 3.7% 的歷史低位，比 1997 年的峰值下降了 85% 以上。

Although this is significant progress, we're troubled by the alarming rise in youth e-vapor use.

儘管這是一項重大進展，但我們對青少年電子蒸汽使用的驚人增長感到不安。

This is why in early 2019, we launched a national campaign to raise the minimum tobacco purchase age to 21 and worked persistently with state and federal lawmakers to support this legislation.

這就是為什麼在 2019 年初，我們發起了一項全國運動，將最低煙草購買年齡提高到 21 歲，並與州和聯邦立法者持續合作以支持這項立法。

In December, Congress enacted landmark federal legislation, moving the legal age to purchase all tobacco products to 21.

12 月，國會頒布了具有里程碑意義的聯邦立法，將購買所有煙草產品的法定年齡提高到 21 歲。

We have much more work ahead of us in reversing the youth e-vapor trends, and our efforts will not stop at Tobacco 21.

在扭轉青少年電子煙趨勢方面，我們還有很多工作要做，我們的努力不會止步於 Tobacco 21。

We must continue to advance harm reduction.

我們必須繼續推進減害。

There are approximately 40 million adult smokers in the U.S. today, with more than half interested in alternative products.

如今，美國約有 4000 萬成年吸煙者，其中一半以上對替代產品感興趣。

While JUUL forges its way in an ever-changing e-vapor category, we remain highly focused on our portfolio approach with alternative products like IQOS and on!.

雖然 JUUL 在不斷變化的電子蒸汽類別中脫穎而出，但我們仍然高度關注我們的產品組合方法，包括 IQOS 等替代產品！

We want our organization, including our sales force, to most effectively and responsibly advance the noncombustible portfolio options we're building, and we're moving forward on these opportunities responsibly and with increased resources.

我們希望我們的組織，包括我們的銷售人員，以最有效和負責任的方式推進我們正在構建的不可燃產品組合選項，我們正在負責任地利用這些機會並增加資源。

With IQOS, we're encouraged by early interest from adult smokers and excitement from the trade.

有了 IQOS，成年吸煙者的早期興趣和行業的興奮讓我們深受鼓舞。

HeatSticks are now distributed across more than 500 retail stores in Atlanta and Richmond combined.

HeatSticks 現在分佈在亞特蘭大和里士滿的 500 多家零售店。

Both launch markets include an innovative retail ecosystem that focuses on the consumer journey of awareness, engagement, trial, purchase and conversion.

這兩個啟動市場都包括一個創新的零售生態系統，該生態系統專注於消費者的認知、參與、試用、購買和轉化之旅。

We now have more than 100 trained IQOS professionals to provide guided trials.

我們現在有 100 多名訓練有素的 IQOS 專業人員提供指導試驗。

We continue to advance our commercialization plans and are gathering insights from our lead markets to inform them going forward.

我們繼續推進我們的商業化計劃，並從我們的主要市場收集見解，為他們提供信息。

Philip Morris International's MRTP application for IQOS remains pending with the FDA, and we remain optimistic about its authorization.

菲利普莫里斯國際公司的 IQOS MRTP 申請仍在 FDA 審理中，我們對其授權保持樂觀。

Additionally, PMI plans to submit a supplemental PMTA in the coming months for IQOS 3. The device offers a more premium and modern design and a rapid charge battery compared to the currently authorized 2.4 device.

此外，PMI 計劃在未來幾個月為 IQOS 3 提交補充 PMTA。與當前授權的 2.4 設備相比，該設備提供了更優質和現代的設計以及快速充電電池。

We plan to capitalize on our first-mover advantage while considering the opportunities presented by an FDA-authorized reduced risk claim for IQOS 2.4 and the launch of a more modern device.

我們計劃利用我們的先發優勢，同時考慮 FDA 授權的 IQOS 2.4 降低風險聲明和推出更現代的設備所帶來的機會。

In oral nicotine pouches, we're advancing our plans quickly in this rapidly growing category, focusing on regulatory, manufacturing and distribution efforts.

在口服尼古丁袋方面，我們正在這個快速增長的類別中快速推進我們的計劃，重點關注監管、製造和分銷工作。

First, our Helix subsidiary expects to submit its PMTAs for on!

首先，我們的 Helix 子公司預計將提交其 PMTA！

by the May 2020 deadline.

到 2020 年 5 月的最後期限。

Second, our best engineers are building manufacturing capability for on!

其次，我們最好的工程師正在為 on 打造製造能力！

at our Richmond manufacturing center, and we expect to begin manufacturing there this quarter.

在我們的里士滿製造中心，我們預計本季度將在那裡開始製造。

We are targeting annualized manufacturing capacity of 50 million cans by midyear and 75 million cans by the end of 2020.

我們的目標是到年中達到 5000 萬罐的年生產能力，到 2020 年底達到 7500 萬罐。

on!

上！

can be purchased on its premium branded website through a robust age verification platform and is now sold nationally in 15,000 stores, including Circle K, Sheetz and Murphy USA, representing 3 of the top 5 retail chain accounts for smokeless volume.

可以通過強大的年齡驗證平台在其高級品牌網站上購買，現在在全國 15,000 家商店銷售，包括 Circle K、Sheetz 和 Murphy USA，代表無菸量排名前 5 位的零售連鎖店中的 3 家。

The on!

開！

brand team will use our adult tobacco consumer database to communicate responsibly with adult tobacco consumers about on!

品牌團隊將使用我們的成人煙草消費者數據庫與成人煙草消費者進行負責任的溝通！

and its broad portfolio.

及其廣泛的產品組合。

In addition, the on!

另外，上！

team plans to enhance the packaging to build brand equity and increase the visibility of the broad range of nicotine strengths and flavors to address the varying preferences of adult smokers and dippers.

團隊計劃加強包裝以建立品牌資產並提高廣泛尼古丁強度和口味的知名度，以解決成年吸煙者和吸食者的不同偏好。

As e-vapor goes through a period of transition, we believe it's an opportune time to further invest in our plans in heated tobacco and oral nicotine.

隨著 e-vapor 經歷一段過渡期，我們認為現在是進一步投資於加熱煙草和口服尼古丁計劃的好時機。

The strength of our core tobacco businesses provides us with the financial flexibility to make these investments as we capitalize on our first-mover advantage in heated tobacco and on!'s compelling proposition and broad portfolio.

我們核心煙草業務的實力為我們提供了財務靈活性來進行這些投資，因為我們利用了我們在加熱煙草方面的先發優勢以及！的引人注目的主張和廣泛的產品組合。

We enter 2020 with continued focus on harm reduction and preparing for a future where adult tobacco consumers overwhelmingly prefer noncombustible products over combustible products.

進入 2020 年，我們將繼續關注減少危害，並為未來成年煙草消費者偏愛不可燃產品而不是可燃產品做準備。

We look forward to sharing more at CAGNY.

我們期待在 CAGNY 分享更多內容。

Let's turn to our financial outlook.

讓我們轉向我們的財務前景。

For our JUUL investment, we now expect HSR resolution in the first half of 2020.

對於我們的 JUUL 投資，我們現在預計 HSR 將在 2020 年上半年得到解決。

Upon antitrust clearance, we expect to account for our equity investment in JUUL using the fair value option.

在獲得反壟斷許可後，我們預計將使用公允價值選項對我們在 JUUL 的股權投資進行會計處理。

Under this option, Altria's income statement will include any cash dividends received from the investment and quarterly changes in the fair value of the investment.

在此選項下，奧馳亞的損益表將包括從投資中獲得的任何現金股息以及投資公允價值的季度變化。

Quarterly changes in the fair value of the investment will be treated as a special item and excluded from adjusted diluted EPS.

投資公允價值的季度變動將作為特殊項目處理，不計入調整後的攤薄每股收益。

We don't currently expect to receive equity earnings contributions from JUUL over the next 3 years.

我們目前預計不會在未來 3 年內收到 JUUL 的股權收益貢獻。

Therefore, we've lowered our 2020 through 2022 compounded annual adjusted diluted EPS earnings growth objective to 4% to 7% from our previously announced objective of 5% to 8%.

因此，我們已將 2020 年至 2022 年復合年度調整後攤薄每股收益增長目標從之前宣布的 5% 至 8% 的目標下調至 4% 至 7%。

For our 2020 guidance, we expect to deliver full year adjusted diluted earnings per share of $4.39 to $4.51.

對於我們的 2020 年指導，我們預計全年調整後的攤薄每股收益為 4.39 美元至 4.51 美元。

This range represents a growth rate of 4% to 7% from a 2019 adjusted diluted EPS base of $4.22.

該範圍代表 4% 至 7% 的增長率，從 2019 年調整後的攤薄每股收益基數 4.22 美元開始。

The 2020 guidance includes increased investments in our noncombustible platform and 1 extra shipping day in the first quarter.

2020 年的指導包括增加對我們不可燃平台的投資以及第一季度額外的 1 個運輸日。

We'll remind you that in 2019, the benefits from our annualized cost reduction program were uneven and ramped up as the year progressed.

我們會提醒您，在 2019 年，我們的年度成本削減計劃帶來的收益是不均衡的，並且隨著時間的推移而增加。

I'll now turn it over to Billy to provide more detail on our 2019 performance.

我現在將把它交給比利，以提供有關我們 2019 年表現的更多細節。

Thanks, Howard, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，霍華德，大家早上好。

We expect the tobacco category to remain dynamic with continued evolution in adult tobacco consumer preferences and tobacco regulation.

我們預計隨著成年煙草消費者偏好和煙草監管的不斷發展，煙草類別將保持動態。

We believe we're well positioned to deliver steady performance in this environment and that our enhanced business platform allows us to continue to deliver strong financial results and generate significant cash return to shareholders, commercialize noncombustible tobacco products to provide satisfying alternatives for adult tobacco consumers and participate in the adjacent and emerging cannabis category through our investment in Cronos.

我們相信我們有能力在這種環境下實現穩定的業績，我們增強的業務平台使我們能夠繼續提供強勁的財務業績並為股東帶來可觀的現金回報，將不可燃煙草產品商業化，為成年煙草消費者提供令人滿意的替代品，以及通過我們對 Cronos 的投資參與相鄰和新興的大麻類別。

As Howard mentioned earlier, in 2019, our core tobacco segments were resilient and delivered excellent performance against their stated objectives.

正如霍華德早些時候提到的，在 2019 年，我們的核心煙草部門具有彈性，並在其既定目標方面表現出色。

In the smokeable products segment, the segment grew adjusted OCI by 8.6% and expanded its adjusted OCI margins by 3.9 percentage points to 54.5%.

在可吸煙產品部門，該部門調整後的 OCI 增長了 8.6%，調整後的 OCI 利潤率擴大了 3.9 個百分點至 54.5%。

Higher pricing, significant cost savings and more efficient promotional spending more than offset lower cigarette volume to drive strong income growth for the year.

更高的定價、顯著的成本節約和更有效的促銷支出抵消了較低的捲煙銷量，從而推動了今年的強勁收入增長。

The smokeable products segment's price realization was up 8.4% for the year.

可抽吸產品部門的價格實現全年上漲 8.4%。

More efficient promotional spending, enabled through data analytics, contributed to the segment's strong net pricing.

通過數據分析實現的更有效的促銷支出促成了該細分市場的強勁淨定價。

Marlboro retail share remained stable at 43.1%, down 0.1% versus prior year.

萬寶路零售份額保持穩定在 43.1%，比去年下降 0.1%。

Product expansions, with innovative reseal packaging and other brand equity investments, continue to support Marlboro's performance.

產品擴展，創新的再密封包裝和其他品牌資產投資，繼續支持萬寶路的業績。

The Marlboro Rewards equity program, launched nationally a year ago, continues to exceed our expectations, with over 2.6 million adult smokers enrolled and 200 million pack codes entered since its launch.

一年前在全國推出的萬寶路獎勵權益計劃繼續超出我們的預期，自推出以來已有超過 260 萬成年吸煙者註冊，並輸入了 2 億個包裝代碼。

Marlboro coupons are driving repeat purchases and remain the #1 redeemed item.

萬寶路優惠券正在推動重複購買，並且仍然是排名第一的兌換商品。

At the industry level, we estimate that U.S. cigarette volumes declined by 4.5% in the fourth quarter and by 5.5% for the full year when adjusted for trade inventory movements and other factors.

在行業層面，我們估計美國捲菸銷量在第四季度下降 4.5%，在調整貿易庫存變動和其他因素後全年下降 5.5%。

We continue to believe that accelerated movement of adult smokers to other categories, primarily e-vapor, and increased exclusive e-vapor category usage drove the incremental year-over-year decline.

我們仍然認為，成年吸煙者加速轉向其他類別，主要是電子蒸汽，以及獨家電子蒸汽類別使用量的增加，推動了同比下降。

For cigarette price elasticity, we'll remind investors that this component of the decline rate is based on retail price changes that include excise taxes, manufacture pricing and trade margin changes.

對於捲菸價格彈性，我們會提醒投資者，下降率的這一部分是基於零售價格變化，包括消費稅、製造價格和貿易利潤變化。

For the full year 2019, cigarette industry prices at retail increased by approximately 4%.

2019 年全年，捲菸行業零售價格上漲約 4%。

When this is multiplied by the elasticity coefficient of negative 0.3%, the result is a volume impact of 1.2% for the year.

當這乘以負 0.3% 的彈性係數時，結果是 1.2% 的全年銷量影響。

Given the recent regulatory and legislative developments in e-vapor and the national move to 21 as a legal age to purchase all tobacco products, we expect cigarette industry volume trends to remain dynamic.

鑑於最近電子蒸汽的監管和立法發展以及國家將 21 歲作為購買所有煙草產品的法定年齡，我們預計捲菸行業的銷量趨勢將保持動態。

Taking these factors into account, we project full year 2020 adjusted industry cigarette volumes to decline 4% to 6%.

考慮到這些因素，我們預計 2020 年全年調整後的行業捲菸銷量將下降 4% 至 6%。

However, due to our expectations for continued volatility across tobacco categories, we're no longer providing a multiyear forecast for U.S. cigarette industry volume declines.

然而，由於我們對煙草類別持續波動的預期，我們不再提供美國捲菸行業銷量下降的多年預測。

In discount, we estimate the total discount category share was up 0.4% for the full year but remained in line with historical share levels at 24.2%.

在折扣方面，我們估計全年折扣類別的總份額增長 0.4%，但仍與 24.2% 的歷史份額水平保持一致。

While we have ceded some share in branded discount, PM USA continues to be pleased with L&M's performance and its increased profitability over time.

雖然我們放棄了一些品牌折扣份額，但 PM USA 繼續對 L&M 的業績及其隨著時間的推移增加的盈利能力感到滿意。

In cigars, JMC had a great year, with 3.1% volume growth exceeding the machine-made large cigar category.

在雪茄方面，江鈴今年表現出色，銷量增長 3.1%，超過了機制大雪茄類別。

We're pleased with the continued strength of Black & Mild and the profitable tipped cigars segment and the cigars business's contribution to smokeable segment adjusted OCI growth.

我們對 Black & Mild 的持續實力和有利可圖的雪茄部門以及雪茄業務對可抽吸部門調整後的 OCI 增長的貢獻感到滿意。

Our smokeless products segment performed well in 2019, delivering more than $1.6 billion in adjusted OCI and maintaining strength behind Copenhagen.

我們的無菸產品部門在 2019 年表現良好，調整後的 OCI 超過 16 億美元，並保持在哥本哈根之後的實力。

The smokeless products segment's adjusted OCI increased by 9.7%, and adjusted OCI margins expanded by 3 percentage points to 71.7% as higher pricing, more efficient promotional spending and lower costs more than offset lower volume.

無菸產品部門的調整後 OCI 增長 9.7%，調整後的 OCI 利潤率增長 3 個百分點至 71.7%，原因是更高的定價、更有效的促銷支出和更低的成本抵消了銷量下降。

Copenhagen continued to lead the category and grew its share by 0.3% for the year to 34.8%.

哥本哈根繼續領跑該類別，全年份額增長 0.3% 至 34.8%。

When adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences, adjusted smokeless volumes declined by an estimated 3% in 2019.

根據貿易庫存變動和日曆差異進行調整後，調整後的無菸銷量在 2019 年估計下降了 3%。

In the last 6 months, total smokeless industry volume decreased by an estimated 1%.

在過去的 6 個月中，無菸行業的總銷量估計下降了 1%。

We continue to believe that adult dipper interest in the oral nicotine pouch and e-vapor categories impacted smokeless volumes.

我們仍然認為，成人對口服尼古丁袋和電子蒸汽類別的興趣會影響無菸量。

Moving to e-vapor.

轉向電子蒸汽。

The e-vapor category experienced rapid growth through the first 9 months, growing volume approximately 35%.

前 9 個月，電子菸類別經歷了快速增長，增長量約為 35%。

The category's growth was driven almost entirely by JUUL.

該類別的增長幾乎完全由 JUUL 推動。

Late in the third quarter, news of vapor-related illnesses and deaths and the release of government survey data showing a significant rise in use -- e-vapor use drove legislative and regulatory action.

第三季度末，與蒸汽相關的疾病和死亡的消息以及政府調查數據的發布顯示使用顯著增加——電子蒸汽的使用推動了立法和監管行動。

Several states moved to ban flavored or all e-vapor products.

幾個州開始禁止調味或所有電子蒸汽產品。

In the fourth quarter, the e-vapor category declined nearly 8% sequentially, and growth slowed to 3% year-over-year.

第四季度，電子煙品類環比下降近 8%，同比增長放緩至 3%。

Also, in the fourth quarter, we estimate JUUL's share of the market declined sequentially to 44% from 48%.

此外，在第四季度，我們估計 JUUL 的市場份額從 48% 下降到 44%。

In preparing our quarterly and year-end financials, we performed a valuation analysis of our investment in JUUL.

在準備我們的季度和年終財務報告時，我們對我們在 JUUL 的投資進行了估值分析。

As a result of this analysis, we recorded an additional $4.1 billion impairment to our JUUL investment, primarily driven by the increased number of legal cases pending against JUUL and the expectation that the number of legal cases against JUUL will continue to increase.

作為該分析的結果，我們記錄了對 JUUL 投資的額外 41 億美元減值，這主要是由於針對 JUUL 的未決法律案件數量增加以及預期針對 JUUL 的法律案件數量將繼續增加。

Since our last quarterly earnings announcement on October 31, 2019, the number of cases pending against JUUL has increased by more than 80%.

自我們於 2019 年 10 月 31 日發布上一個季度收益公告以來，針對 JUUL 的未決案件數量增加了 80% 以上。

For a brief review, in the third quarter, we adjusted expected cash flows from JUUL to reflect slower future e-vapor category growth due to likely regulatory action in the U.S. and various e-vapor bans in the U.S. and internationally.

簡要回顧一下，在第三季度，我們調整了 JUUL 的預期現金流，以反映由於美國可能採取的監管行動以及美國和國際上的各種電子蒸汽禁令，未來電子蒸汽類別增長放緩。

In the fourth quarter, as a result of the legal environment we just described, we increased the discount rate to reflect greater uncertainty around JUUL's future cash flows.

在第四季度，由於我們剛剛描述的法律環境，我們提高了貼現率以反映 JUUL 未來現金流的更大不確定性。

The latest impairment brings the current value of our investment to $4.2 billion.

最新的減值使我們目前的投資價值達到 42 億美元。

As we said earlier, we're disappointed in the performance of the past year and hope JUUL can move forward more constructively.

正如我們之前所說，我們對過去一年的表現感到失望，希望 JUUL 能夠更有建設性地前進。

Turning to our strategic cannabis investment, Cronos.

談到我們的戰略大麻投資， Cronos 。

They are executing against a strategy of building differentiated brands and disruptive intellectual property.

他們正在執行建立差異化品牌和顛覆性知識產權的戰略。

Last year, Cronos entered the rapidly growing U.S. CBD market through its acquisition of Redwood Holdings, which manufactures and distributes the Lord Jones luxury brand.

去年，Cronos 通過收購生產和分銷 Lord Jones 奢侈品牌的 Redwood Holdings 進入了快速增長的美國 CBD 市場。

Cronos has been preparing for cannabis legalization of derivative products, including vaporizers.

Cronos 一直在為包括蒸發器在內的衍生產品的大麻合法化做準備。

Cronos also made significant progress with talent acquisition, hiring and filling critical business roles.

Cronos 在人才招聘、招聘和填補關鍵業務角色方面也取得了重大進展。

We believe the U.S. cannabis market, if reasonably regulated and legalized at the federal level, presents a tremendous opportunity, and we're pleased with Cronos' progress in building these key capabilities and business platform.

我們相信，如果美國大麻市場在聯邦層面得到合理監管和合法化，將提供巨大的機會，我們對 Cronos 在構建這些關鍵能力和業務平台方面取得的進展感到高興。

In alcohol, the results of our -- in our wine segment reflect ongoing challenges in Ste.

在酒精方面，我們在葡萄酒領域的結果反映了 Ste 的持續挑戰。

Michelle's business, which they continue to work to address.

米歇爾的業務，他們將繼續努力解決。

Adjusted OCI for the year was $73 million, down nearly 30%, driven primarily by higher cost and promotional investments.

全年調整後的 OCI 為 7300 萬美元，下降近 30%，主要受成本和促銷投資增加的推動。

Ste.

聖。

Michelle continues to invest in innovative packaging, digital marketing and brand optimization.

Michelle 繼續投資於創新包裝、數字營銷和品牌優化。

For example, 14 Hands is now the #1 selling premium canned wine in 7-Eleven stores.

例如，14 Hands 現在是 7-11 商店中銷售優質罐裝葡萄酒的第一名。

In beer, ABI delivered $875 million in adjusted equity earnings, representing an increase of 8.7% for the year.

在啤酒方面，ABI 實現了 8.75 億美元的調整後股本收益，同比增長 8.7%。

ABI also contributed nearly $400 million in cash dividends in 2019.

ABI 還在 2019 年貢獻了近 4 億美元的現金股息。

Turning to capital allocation.

轉向資本配置。

We repurchased $500 million in shares in the fourth quarter.

我們在第四季度回購了 5 億美元的股票。

We had $500 million remaining under our previously announced $1 billion share buyback program and expect to complete the program by the end of this year.

在我們之前宣布的 10 億美元股票回購計劃下，我們還有 5 億美元剩餘，預計將在今年年底前完成該計劃。

And last August, we increased our dividend for the 54th time in the -- 50 years.

去年 8 月，我們在 50 年來第 54 次增加了股息。

Our current annualized dividend rate of $3.36 per share represents a dividend yield of 6.8% as of January 27, 2020.

我們目前的年化股息率為每股 3.36 美元，截至 2020 年 1 月 27 日，股息收益率為 6.8%。

That wraps up our results.

這總結了我們的結果。

Howard and I will be happy to take your questions.

霍華德和我很樂意回答你的問題。

While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com.

在編譯電話時，我會提醒您，今天的收益發布和我們的非 GAAP 對賬可在 altria.com 上獲得。

We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items.

我們還發布了我們通常的季度指標，其中包括定價、庫存和其他內務管理項目。

With that, I'll open up the question-and-answer period.

有了這個，我將打開問答時間。

Brandy, do we have any questions?

白蘭地，我們有什麼問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

I just wanted to ask a question, if I could, first on -- just looking at volume, particularly in the cigarette category, you had a number -- but since you've a number of puts and takes to volume in 2020 as we look ahead, I guess I wanted -- so I understand you had a little stronger performance for the category in the fourth quarter.

我只是想問一個問題，如果可以的話，首先——只看銷量，特別是在捲菸類別中，你有一個數字——但由於你在 2020 年有很多看跌期權和成交量，因為我們展望未來，我想我想要 - 所以我知道你在第四季度的該類別的表現要強一些。

As you look ahead, you have Tobacco 21, which could be a drag on volume.

展望未來，您會看到 Tobacco 21，這可能會拖累交易量。

I guess I'm curious about like the cross-category movement.

我想我對跨品類運動很好奇。

It seems like we're seeing a pretty marked deceleration in e-cigarettes, which has been a big drag there.

似乎我們看到電子煙出現了相當明顯的減速，這一直是一個很大的拖累。

So maybe Tobacco 21 and the hikes with the e-cigarette category, the performance in 2020 and then just to understand how that's going to help affect the volume for cigarettes in 2020.

因此，也許煙草 21 和電子菸類別的上漲，2020 年的表現，然後只是為了了解這將如何幫助影響 2020 年的捲煙銷量。

Sure.

當然。

I think when you look at cigarette volume declines, our range is 4% to 6%.

我認為當你看到捲菸量下降時，我們的範圍是 4% 到 6%。

With regard to Tobacco 21, in the first half of last year, we estimated about 2% of cigarette industry volume was legal age to 20.

關於 Tobacco 21，去年上半年，我們估計約 2% 的捲煙行業數量是 20 歲以下的法定年齡。

And so certainly, that's going to be an impact this year going forward.

因此，可以肯定的是，這將在今年產生影響。

But I would say that you already had a certain number of states that were already at a legal age of purchase of 21 before we made that measurement.

但我想說，在我們進行測量之前，您已經有一定數量的州已經達到了 21 歲的法定購買年齡。

And some of that got factored in as more than 50% of the U.S. volume was covered by 21 by midyear.

其中一些已被考慮在內，因為到年中時，美國超過 50% 的銷量被 21 所覆蓋。

So some of that decline is in the base of the decline rate.

因此，其中一些下降是在下降率的基礎上。

I think with regard to e-vapor, it's hard to precisely predict what's going to happen to that category.

我認為關於電子蒸汽，很難準確預測該類別會發生什麼。

But if you just turn to the fourth quarter of this year, its year-over-year growth rate was only 3%.

但如果只看今年第四季度，它的同比增長率只有 3%。

And I think that we really expect that we're going to see a continued slowdown or even maybe a decline in the e-vapor category over the next couple of years.

而且我認為我們真的預計在接下來的幾年中，我們將看到電子蒸汽類別的持續放緩甚至可能下降。

And I think that's going to result in less pressure on the cigarette category.

我認為這將減少對捲菸類別的壓力。

The other products that potentially could impact the cigarette category though, of course, are IQOS and heat-not-burn and the tobacco dry nicotine pouch business.

當然，其他可能影響捲菸類別的產品是 IQOS 和加熱不燃燒以及煙草干尼古丁袋業務。

Okay.

好的。

Just one other follow-up question, which is in relation to the cost savings you achieved in 2019, you noted that you hit about a $600 million annualized rate as you exited the year.

還有一個後續問題，與您在 2019 年實現的成本節約有關，您指出，當您退出這一年時，您的年化率達到了大約 6 億美元。

So just to be clear, does that put you around $150 million in the fourth quarter?

所以要明確一點，這會讓你在第四季度賺到大約 1.5 億美元嗎？

And is there any way to discuss what you have left in 2020 coming through from the actions you undertook in 2019?

有什麼方法可以討論您在 2019 年採取的行動中在 2020 年留下了什麼？

Yes, Chris, you're right.

是的，克里斯，你是對的。

We were ramping up as we went through the year 2019.

隨著我們度過 2019 年，我們正在加速發展。

The biggest annualization will come from the headcount reduction related dollars because remember that most of the headcount exited towards the end of the first quarter.

最大的年化將來自與裁員相關的美元，因為請記住，大部分員工人數在第一季度末退出。

So that will be the biggest part of the annualization.

所以這將是年化的最大部分。

And are you willing to say or able to say really how much is left in terms of savings you expect in 2020?

您是否願意說出或能夠說出您在 2020 年預計的儲蓄還剩多少？

Yes, I probably won't go into that level of detail.

是的，我可能不會深入到那個級別的細節。

But I think the $600 million is a good number from an annualized run rate.

但我認為從年化運行率來看，6 億美元是一個不錯的數字。

Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Vivien Azer。

So I wanted to just touch base on some of your market share aspirations given how dynamic the cigarette industry volume backdrop has proven to be.

因此，鑑於捲菸行業的銷量背景已被證明是多麼活躍，我想談談您對市場份額的一些期望。

So Howard, as you think about possibly a worse outlook relative to what you guys used to think, it's not a 3% to 4% anymore.

所以霍華德，當你考慮到相對於你們過去認為的可能更糟糕的前景時，它不再是 3% 到 4%。

Does that change how you think about holding or modestly growing your cigarette market share?

這是否會改變您對持有或適度增加捲菸市場份額的看法？

I have to say that we were pleased with our performance last year.

我不得不說我們對去年的表現很滿意。

We had stability on Marlboro.

我們對萬寶路很穩定。

We had a modest step-down in our share on L&M, but it's at a much higher level of profitability and we had strong profit growth from the cigarette category.

我們在 L&M 的份額略有下降，但盈利水平要高得多，而且捲菸類別的利潤增長強勁。

So we believe that the performance we had last year was quite strong and quite acceptable.

所以我們認為我們去年的表現相當強勁，也相當可接受。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And just a follow-up on JUUL, can you comment at all about what your expectations are now for revenue mix over the next few years for JUUL domestic versus internationally?

只是對 JUUL 的跟進，您能否評論一下您現在對未來幾年 JUUL 國內與國際收入組合的預期？

Yes.

是的。

Vivien, from a standpoint of that JUUL has announced, we know there's a reset that's taking place in the U.S., and they've had some announcements, some resets that they're in the process of making internationally.

Vivien，從 JUUL 宣布的角度來看，我們知道美國正在進行重置，他們已經發布了一些公告，他們正在國際上進行一些重置。

We certainly incorporated both into the valuation analysis, but I'm going to be hesitant to go into the level of detail of the split-up between both international and the U.S. until we see the continuation of their planned rollout.

我們當然將兩者都納入了估值分析，但在我們看到他們計劃推出的繼續之前，我會猶豫是否要深入了解國際和美國之間拆分的詳細程度。

Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Nik Modi。

Howard, can you maybe talk about this ceasing of -- helping JUUL with other areas outside of regulatory?

霍華德，您能否談談停止幫助 JUUL 處理監管之外的其他領域？

Is that just an anticipation of FTC review?

這只是對 FTC 審查的預期嗎？

I mean, can you just provide any context around that?

我的意思是，你能提供任何相關的背景嗎？

And I'm assuming that means no coupons and some of the shelf spacing that you've previously discussed?

我假設這意味著沒有優惠券和您之前討論過的一些貨架間距？

And then just thinking about 2020, your overall thoughts on just areas that we should be watching out for potential excise tax increases.

然後想想 2020 年，你對我們應該注意潛在消費稅增加的領域的總體看法。

I haven't reviewed some of the data out there, but maybe you could just give us any areas that you guys are looking at in terms of big tax hikes.

我還沒有查看那裡的一些數據，但也許你可以給我們任何你們正在考慮的關於大幅增稅的領域。

Sure.

當然。

With regard to the change in the services that we're providing to JUUL, it's not related to the FTC review.

關於我們向 JUUL 提供的服務的變化，它與 FTC 審查無關。

We've agreed to continue to provide them with regulatory affairs services, where the 2 teams are working together, I think, quite effectively.

我們已經同意繼續為他們提供監管事務服務，我認為這兩個團隊正在非常有效地合作。

And I think that's one of their most important priorities, to file a complete and compelling application in May of 2020 this year.

我認為這是他們最重要的優先事項之一，即在今年 2020 年 5 月提交一份完整且引人注目的申請。

As you may recall last year, there were a number of services that we offered them.

您可能還記得去年，我們為他們提供了許多服務。

Some of them, they turned down and built their own infrastructure.

其中一些，他們拒絕並建立了自己的基礎設施。

And then in other places, they built their own infrastructure but on an ad hoc basis utilized some of our services such as the sales force.

然後在其他地方，他們建立了自己的基礎設施，但臨時使用了我們的一些服務，例如銷售人員。

What we found was that having both JUUL personnel and Altria personnel that were sometimes involved in executing for JUUL at retail, that it created confusion and that it wasn't really an effective way to get the most out of the Altria sales organization.

我們發現，讓 JUUL 人員和 Altria 人員有時參與零售業 JUUL 的執行，這會造成混亂，而且這並不是充分利用 Altria 銷售組織的有效方式。

So we ultimately agreed with JUUL that they'd continue to provide a number of the services exclusively and that we'd pull back.

因此，我們最終與 JUUL 達成一致，即他們將繼續獨家提供一些服務，我們將撤回。

And I think that gives us the opportunity to really invest in our sales and distribution organization and having them focus on our 2 core tobacco segments as well as the expansion of IQOS and on!.

我認為這讓我們有機會真正投資於我們的銷售和分銷組織，讓他們專注於我們的 2 個核心煙草領域以及 IQOS 的擴張等等！

And we know the kind of impact they can have when they are the sole supporter of our sales and distribution effort, and we're pleased to have some of that capacity back for our other businesses.

我們知道，當他們成為我們銷售和分銷工作的唯一支持者時，他們會產生什麼樣的影響，我們很高興能夠為我們的其他業務恢復部分能力。

Your next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Pamela Kaufman。

So Billy touched on pricing elasticity in his comments, which do not have appeared to have changed.

因此，比利在他的評論中談到了定價彈性，但似乎並沒有改變。

Are you surprised that there have not been changes to pricing elasticity in the cigarette category given the availability of lower-priced alternatives?

鑑於低價替代品的存在，捲菸類別的定價彈性沒有發生變化，您對此感到驚訝嗎？

And do you see any risk to your ability to continue to increase your realized pricing at a high single-digit rate?

您是否認為以高個位數繼續提高已實現定價的能力存在風險？

Yes, Pamela, when we look at price elasticity and you'll recall, we've had significant price increases.

是的，帕梅拉，當我們查看價格彈性時，您會記得，我們的價格大幅上漲。

If you go back in history, whether it was related to MSA or excise taxes in a given state, and the price elasticity is held at that negative 0.3% coefficient.

如果你回顧歷史，無論是與特定州的 MSA 還是消費稅有關，價格彈性都保持在 0.3% 的負係數。

From a standpoint of alternative products, when we talk to consumers, pricing doesn't really factor into their top reasons for switching out.

從替代產品的角度來看，當我們與消費者交談時，定價並沒有真正成為他們放棄的主要原因。

There are other reasons mentioned.

還提到了其他原因。

So it is not surprising that, that hasn't changed.

因此，這並沒有改變也就不足為奇了。

I'm going to be a little bit reluctant to talk about the future pricing.

我會有點不願意談論未來的定價。

I will note that pricing is an important part of our algorithm, but there are also puts and takes across the P&L, and we'll assess that as we move forward.

我會指出，定價是我們算法的重要組成部分，但損益表中也存在看跌期權，我們將在前進的過程中對其進行評估。

Okay.

好的。

And I also wanted to ask about your outlook for JUUL's PMTA submission.

我還想問一下您對 JUUL 提交 PMTA 的看法。

Is there any evidence of an improvement in JUUL's youth usage trends based on recent surveys?

根據最近的調查，是否有任何證據表明 JUUL 的青少年使用趨勢有所改善？

And would you expect to see a meaningful improvement in JUUL's performance in the next Youth Tobacco Survey?

您是否希望在下一次青年煙草調查中看到 JUUL 的表現有顯著改善？

Yes.

是的。

I don't know that there's been government data released since about the second quarter of last year.

我不知道從去年第二季度開始有政府數據發布。

But I do expect before the filing deadline of May, there is going to be -- that second quarter survey will be completed.

但我確實預計在五月的提交截止日期之前，將會完成第二季度的調查。

And while it won't be available publicly for a bit of time, it will certainly be available publicly before I would expect the FDA to make any decisions on the PMTAs that they accept as filed.

雖然它不會在一段時間內公開發布，但在我期望 FDA 對他們接受的 PMTA 做出任何決定之前，它肯定會公開發布。

I think that there is reason to be optimistic that there is going to be an improvement or a reduction in youth usage of e-vapor products because of, I think, 2 very significant developments: The first one is that we now have a minimum age of purchase of 21 nationwide, and I think that will be in effect for a full 3 months before that survey starts to measure youth usage.

我認為有理由樂觀地認為，青少年對電子蒸汽產品的使用會有所改善或減少，因為我認為有兩個非常重要的發展：第一個是我們現在有一個最低年齡在全國范圍內購買了 21 台，我認為這將在該調查開始衡量青年使用情況之前的整整 3 個月內生效。

And then secondly, the FDA has now provided nationwide guidance that's in effect that is going to restrict, certainly for pod-based e-vapor products, the availability of flavors to tobacco and menthol.

其次，FDA 現在已經提供了全國范圍的指導，該指導實際上將限制基於豆莢的電子蒸汽產品，煙草和薄荷醇香精的可用性。

I think that should have a positive impact on driving down youth usage rates.

我認為這應該對降低青年使用率產生積極影響。

And certainly, I would expect that the JUUL usage would decline as well.

當然，我預計 JUUL 的使用率也會下降。

I think how fast it goes down, I think we're going to have to wait and see.

我認為它下降的速度有多快，我認為我們將不得不拭目以待。

Your next question comes from line of Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Priya Ohri-Gupta。

Just a quick follow-up on that last question, around how you expect sort of disposable products to potentially mitigate some of the benefits from e-cigarette youth usage.

只是對最後一個問題的快速跟進，圍繞您期望一次性產品如何潛在地減輕電子煙青少年使用的一些好處。

And then secondly, you guys had a $1 billion bond that came due earlier this month.

其次，你們有本月早些時候到期的 10 億美元債券。

Just wanted to understand if we should expect you to refinance that or given sort of your healthy cash flows, expect you to just have paid that down.

只是想了解我們是否應該期望您再融資或考慮到您的健康現金流，期望您已經支付了這筆款項。

Sure.

當然。

I think you're referencing the fact that when the FDA implemented their guidance, restricting the availability of flavored products, they were quite clear that for pod-based, closed-system products, that they were going to enforce against any product in the market other than tobacco and menthol, and they were not as clear with regard to some of the other product formats.

我認為你提到的事實是，當 FDA 實施他們的指導，限制調味產品的可用性時，他們非常清楚，對於基於豆莢的封閉系統產品，他們將對市場上的任何產品強制執行除了煙草和薄荷醇，對於其他一些產品形式，它們還不是很清楚。

But I think that they also were -- I think they were also quite specific that any product they found that was contributing to youth usage of e-vapor products, they were certainly going to enforce regardless of the product format.

但我認為他們也是 - 我認為他們也非常明確，他們發現任何有助於青少年使用電子蒸汽產品的產品，無論產品形式如何，他們肯定會強制執行。

So I think if you see huge usage switch to other product formats other than pod-based products, I would expect the FDA to step in and enforce against those products as well.

因此，我認為，如果您看到大量使用轉向除基於 pod 的產品以外的其他產品格式，我希望 FDA 也會介入並對這些產品實施執法。

I'll turn it over to Billy on your bond question.

關於你的債券問題，我會把它交給比利。

Yes, you're exactly right.

是的，你完全正確。

With the strong generation of the cash from our core businesses, we paid debt with available cash.

隨著我們核心業務產生大量現金，我們用可用現金償還了債務。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

On the JUUL equity income expectation now that, that would not have any contribution over the next 3 years -- 3 or 4 years, is that more related to the accounting treatment recording cash dividends?

現在關於 JUUL 的股權收益預期，這在未來 3 年（3 年或 4 年）不會有任何貢獻，這是否與記錄現金股息的會計處理更相關？

Or is that -- or does that reflect your expectations for what those earnings might look like?

或者是 - 或者這是否反映了您對這些收入的預期？

Yes, Michael, when you look at the fair value option, you have 2 components that come through.

是的，邁克爾，當您查看公允價值期權時，您有兩個組成部分可以通過。

You only record, if you will, equity income related to dividends.

如果您願意，您只記錄與股息相關的股權收入。

And then you have, if you will, the change or adjustment to the fair value on a quarterly basis.

然後，如果您願意，您可以按季度對公允價值進行更改或調整。

And so since that equity line would include only dividends, we don't have any expectations that we would receive dividends over the next 3 years.

因此，由於該股本線僅包括股息，因此我們不期望在未來 3 年內獲得股息。

That's a helpful clarification.

這是一個有用的澄清。

And on the FTC review, obviously, you'd said you thought it would be resolved in the first quarter and now it's pushed out to the first half.

在聯邦貿易委員會的審查中，很明顯，你說過你認為它會在第一季度得到解決，現在它被推遲到了上半年。

Can you just give some color there?

你能在那裡給點顏色嗎？

Is that delay any cause for concern?

這種延遲是否值得擔心？

I don't think it is a cause for concern.

我不認為這是令人擔憂的原因。

There's a significant amount of activity going on and there were some scheduling delays that pushed it likely out of the first quarter.

有大量的活動正在進行，並且有一些日程安排的延遲，可能會將其推遲到第一季度。

But I don't think it's driven by anything more than that.

但我不認為它是由除此之外的任何東西驅動的。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then just lastly, on the buybacks, you did the $500 million in the fourth quarter and now are guiding to $500 million for the full year.

最後，在回購方面，你在第四季度完成了 5 億美元，現在全年目標是 5 億美元。

Is there any reason why that pace would change?

有什麼理由會改變這種速度嗎？

Or should we expect maybe a little bit of upside against that?

或者我們是否應該期待可能會有一點上漲？

How should we think about the outlook from here?

我們應該如何看待這裡的前景？

Yes.

是的。

I think, Michael, as far as share repurchase, I'm not going to speak to the pace, we really look at the market and make those decisions.

邁克爾，我認為，就股票回購而言，我不會談論步伐，我們真的會關注市場並做出這些決定。

All we -- we're in the current share repurchase program, and we'll assess what the pace is and whether we make any changes to that in the future.

我們所有人 - 我們都在當前的股票回購計劃中，我們將評估步伐是什麼，以及我們是否會在未來做出任何改變。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗的亞當·斯皮爾曼（Adam Spielman）。

I have a couple of questions.

我有一些問題。

Can I start with the Tobacco 21?

我可以從煙草 21 開始嗎？

In the states where you've seen that imposed for quite a while, can you say if there's been a difference in the volume run rate, I guess?

在您已經看到實施了很長一段時間的州，您能說一下我猜的成交量運行率是否存在差異？

That would be my first question on Tobacco 21.

那將是我關於菸草 21 的第一個問題。

Thanks for the question, Adam.

謝謝你的問題，亞當。

I think when you look at the individual states, they differ in the way that the impact of that has happened.

我認為，當您查看各個州時，它們的影響方式有所不同。

And so it's a bit early.

所以有點早了。

I know you're referring to a couple of states that went much earlier, but it's tough to tease out.

我知道你指的是幾個更早的州，但很難梳理出來。

We will certainly be able to see that now with the nationwide -- on a federal level, the 21.

我們現在肯定能夠在全國范圍內看到這一點——在聯邦層面上，21。

So we'll be able to provide better input to that as we move forward.

因此，隨著我們的前進，我們將能夠為此提供更好的輸入。

Also related -- so also related to that, I guess, the Tobacco 21 has 2 impacts.

也相關——我猜也與此相關，煙草 21 有 2 個影響。

Firstly, you might have fewer people almost immediately because they just can't buy it.

首先，您可能幾乎立即就會有更少的人，因為他們就是買不到。

But also, you might think that the run rate of volume declines might get worse because, I guess, you're recruiting fewer smokers potentially in the future.

但是，您可能會認為銷量下降的速度可能會變得更糟，因為我猜您將來可能會招募更少的吸煙者。

And I was just wondering whether -- how you think about that second point, whether you think tobacco, not only does it have an impact this year in 2020 but also whether it alters the ongoing volume decline in the U.S.

我只是想知道是否 - 你如何看待第二點，你是否認為煙草不僅會在 2020 年對今年產生影響，而且還會改變美國持續的銷量下降趨勢。

Yes, I think as we think about the impact of Tobacco 21, I don't know that we divide it up the way you looked at it.

是的，我認為當我們考慮 Tobacco 21 的影響時，我不知道我們是否按照您看待它的方式來劃分它。

Clearly, there are legal age to 20 tobacco users that were legal to purchase the product before that are no longer legal.

顯然，合法購買該產品的 20 歲煙草使用者的法定年齡不再合法。

And we hope that they fall out of the category and end up obeying the law.

我們希望他們不屬於這一類並最終遵守法律。

I think secondly, we actually don't advertise to non-tobacco users, but certainly, Tobacco 21 could cause people to delay their consideration of entering the tobacco category.

我認為其次，我們實際上不向非煙草用戶做廣告，但可以肯定的是，煙草 21 可能會導致人們推遲考慮進入煙草類別。

And while that might have a future impact on category volumes, we don't do research on that.

雖然這可能會對未來的品類數量產生影響，但我們不會對此進行研究。

Okay.

好的。

And then just if I can come back to the agreement of -- a change of the agreements in JUUL.

然後，如果我可以回到 JUUL 中的協議變更協議。

And obviously, you're now going to provide them with less services than you had previously agreed to provide.

顯然，您現在要為他們提供的服務少於您之前同意提供的服務。

And I was just wondering if JUUL has got anything in return for what looks like less value to them.

我只是想知道 JUUL 是否有任何回報，以換取對他們來說價值較低的東西。

Well, I think as you looked at the agreement with JUUL, I think that ultimately, there were a number of changes to the agreement.

好吧，我認為當您查看與 JUUL 的協議時，我認為最終協議發生了一些變化。

I think we both felt like that was an agreement that provided value to both sides, and that's ultimately why we agreed to it.

我認為我們都覺得這是一個為雙方提供價值的協議，這就是我們最終同意它的原因。

Fine.

美好的。

And just one final question.

最後一個問題。

I noticed that the growth of the deep discount category, the sort of non-branded discount category, in terms of market share was slightly higher in 2019 than it was in previous years, so as I'm talking about incrementally.

我注意到，深度折扣類別（非品牌折扣類別）在 2019 年的市場份額增長略高於前幾年，所以正如我所說的增量。

Do you -- why do you think that was?

你——你認為這是為什麼？

And do you think we should continue -- we will continue to see that in -- that increase switching to non-branded discount going forward?

您是否認為我們應該繼續——我們將繼續看到——增加轉向非品牌折扣的趨勢？

Yes, Adam, I think related to that, we had been talking about it being churn for most of the year.

是的，亞當，我認為與此有關，我們一直在談論它在一年中的大部分時間裡都在流失。

And I think that's primarily what occurred in the year.

我認為這主要是這一年發生的事情。

You're right, in 2019, it stepped slightly outside of just churn.

你是對的，在 2019 年，它略微超出了剛剛流失的範圍。

I think as we see the aging of adult smokers, they tend to skew a bit more into the discount category.

我認為隨著我們看到成年吸煙者的老齡化，他們傾向於更多地傾向於折扣類別。

But I think there's always present in the consumer base a group of consumers that are looking for the, if you will, the cheaper or cheapest cigarette in the store.

但我認為，在消費者群體中，總有一群消費者在尋找商店中更便宜或最便宜的香煙，如果你願意的話。

And as you've seen us and others take profitability on branded discount, you're seeing that consumer move-down to the, if you will, the [AUM] of the deep discount.

正如您已經看到我們和其他人從品牌折扣中獲利一樣，您會看到消費者正在向深度折扣的 [AUM] 下移，如果您願意的話。

Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Owen Bennett。

Just a question around the non-compete obligation and if the scenario did happen where you release from that.

只是一個關於競業禁止義務的問題，以及這種情況是否確實發生在你從中解脫出來的地方。

Just a few questions around that.

只是幾個問題。

Is it -- would it be right in assuming, therefore, that it'd be MarkTen that you'd try to get back on the market?

是否 - 因此，假設您將嘗試重新進入市場是 MarkTen 是否正確？

And then also, are you in a good spot where you could get a PMTA in with MarkTen pretty quickly?

然後，您是否處於一個可以很快通過 MarkTen 獲得 PMTA 的好地方？

And then finally, would you need to get a PMTA in first before you can get it onto the market?

最後，您是否需要先獲得 PMTA 才能將其投放市場？

Or is MarkTen available, like for instance, in some little part of the U.S., which has not completely been rid of the shelves so you could run that up again pretty quickly?

或者 MarkTen 是否可用，例如，在美國的一些小地方，它還沒有完全擺脫貨架，所以你可以很快再次運行它？

Sure.

當然。

I wouldn't read too much into our renegotiation with JUUL that in the future potentially gives us more flexibility to compete.

我不會過多解讀我們與 JUUL 的重新談判，這可能會在未來為我們提供更大的競爭靈活性。

And I don't think that we have a well-defined plan if we were to decide to execute that.

如果我們決定執行該計劃，我認為我們沒有明確的計劃。

Certainly, we had some e-vapor products, although I would point out that they were not performing at a level that we found to be particularly satisfying.

當然，我們有一些電子蒸汽產品，儘管我要指出它們的表現並沒有達到我們認為特別令人滿意的水平。

And certainly, any product that would be placed on the market would need to go through PMTA authorization, assuming that it was put on the market after May of 2020.

當然，任何將要投放市場的產品都需要經過 PMTA 授權，前提是它是在 2020 年 5 月之後投放市場的。

Your next question comes from the line of Gaurav Jain of Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

Okay.

好的。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

Yes.

是的。

I guess, going back a little bit to the -- just the cigarette category and market share dynamics.

我想，稍微回到捲菸類別和市場份額動態。

I guess just an update, if we could, about your satisfaction with the Marlboro brand in terms of its standing versus -- and just overall brand equity.

如果可以的話，我想這只是關於您對萬寶路品牌在地位與整體品牌資產方面的滿意度的更新。

And clearly, we saw some share loss this year.

很明顯，我們今年看到了一些份額損失。

We've discussed it in the past.

我們過去討論過它。

But is there anything that you see there that causes you any concern relative to what you discussed in the past that may need corrective action?

但是，您在那裡看到的是否有任何與您過去討論的內容相關的問題，可能需要採取糾正措施？

No, we're very pleased with the Marlboro brand.

不，我們對萬寶路品牌非常滿意。

We think that PM USA team has done a fantastic job and really presented us with stability around the brand.

我們認為 PM USA 團隊做得非常出色，並真正為我們提供了品牌的穩定性。

They've had some excellent equity programs.

他們有一些出色的股權計劃。

I mentioned Marlboro Rewards earlier.

我之前提到過萬寶路獎勵。

I think that's really driving repeat purchases with those consumers that want to be engaged with Marlboro.

我認為這確實推動了那些想要與萬寶路互動的消費者的重複購買。

Yes, we saw 0.1%.

是的，我們看到了 0.1%。

I wouldn't necessarily consider that a huge decline.

我不一定認為這是一個巨大的下降。

I consider that stability.

我認為穩定。

And if you look back, and we provided it over the call, with the last 7 to 8 quarters, you've seen very strong stability in the Marlboro brand itself.

如果你回頭看，我們在過去 7 到 8 個季度的電話會議上提供了它，你已經看到萬寶路品牌本身非常穩定。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

And then I guess, secondly, the decision to remove your long-term cigarette volume outlook.

然後我想，其次，決定取消你的長期捲菸量展望。

Does that simply reflect just a lack of visibility on your part?

這是否僅僅反映了您缺乏知名度？

Or is the action more intended to maybe focus us on other metrics that you kind of see as more important as you work towards managing to optimize profit growth across the portfolio?

或者該行動是否更旨在讓我們關注您認為與您努力優化整個投資組合的利潤增長一樣重要的其他指標？

I'm just trying to understand the -- I guess, the motivation and impetus behind removing that number from your communication?

我只是想了解——我想，從你的溝通中刪除這個數字背後的動機和動力？

Sure.

當然。

I think that we feel like it's -- we're probably in a better position to forecast the 1-year trend than we are for the 3-year trend.

我認為我們感覺是——我們可能比預測 3 年趨勢更能預測 1 年趨勢。

And I think that if we're going to provide forecasts, we like to do it with a reasonable level of confidence about falling within it.

而且我認為，如果我們要提供預測，我們希望對落入預測有合理的信心。

And we've just found that based on our past experience and based on the number of things that are impacting cigarette volumes going forward that we thought we were better off not continuing to provide that.

我們剛剛發現，根據我們過去的經驗和影響未來捲菸數量的因素的數量，我們認為最好不要繼續提供。

Your next question comes from Robert Rampton of UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的羅伯特·蘭普頓。

My first question is, so it looks like JUUL volumes were down 15% quarter-on-quarter.

我的第一個問題是，看起來 JUUL 的銷量環比下降了 15%。

How much of that came from after JUUL pulled mint pods?

其中有多少來自 JUUL 拉出薄荷豆莢後？

I'm trying to think about the implications of the imminent cartridge ban for the rest of the market.

我正在嘗試考慮即將實施的墨盒禁令對其他市場的影響。

Sure.

當然。

I don't -- I really can't break down how much of that volume decline for JUUL came after their November announcement of withdrawing mint and how much came before.

我沒有——我真的無法分解 JUUL 的銷量下降有多少是在他們 11 月宣布撤回鑄幣廠之後發生的，以及之前有多少。

But I think you are right that the primary driver of that volume decline was the impact of them removing mint from the market.

但我認為你是對的，銷量下降的主要驅動因素是他們將薄荷從市場上撤出的影響。

And while that impacted JUUL in the fourth quarter, I think there's likely to be a volume step-down for the other companies that didn't proactively remove their flavored products and instead waited for FDA to force them to remove those products, and that, of course, will be an impact in the first quarter.

雖然這在第四季度影響了 JUUL，但我認為其他沒有主動移除調味產品而是等待 FDA 強迫他們移除這些產品的公司的銷量可能會下降，而且，當然，第一季度會受到影響。

Okay.

好的。

And then -- so my next question is assuming e-cigarette sales decline year-on-year for 2020 in total.

然後——所以我的下一個問題是假設 2020 年電子煙銷量總體同比下降。

I mean, looking at your estimate of 2-point drag this year for 2018 -- '19, is the implication that, that 2-point drag disappears?

我的意思是，看看你對今年 2018 年 2 點阻力的估計——19 年，這是否意味著 2 點阻力消失了？

Or am I interpreting that incorrectly?

還是我解釋不正確？

Well, I think that it's a little bit hard to measure precisely.

嗯，我認為精確測量有點困難。

We've given you our estimate of 4% to 6% volume decline for cigarettes.

我們已經為您提供了我們對捲菸銷量下降 4% 至 6% 的估計。

But I think that if you had an e-vapor category that declined, I think that the -- any stepped up decline in cigarettes related to e-vapor would probably go away.

但我認為，如果您的電子蒸汽類別有所下降，我認為與電子蒸汽相關的捲煙的任何加速下降都可能會消失。

The question would then be, what are the potential impacts of either heat-not-burn or other movement to other categories?

那麼問題是，加熱不燃燒或其他運動對其他類別的潛在影響是什麼？

And then, of course, you'd have to factor in the impact of Tobacco 21.

然後，當然，您必須考慮煙草 21 的影響。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, sorry, my final question on IQOS.

然後，對不起，我關於 IQOS 的最後一個問題。

Any color on how that's going on the spectrum of Germany to Japan?

從德國到日本的情況有什麼顏色嗎？

Are you happy to give any more color on where you think the U.S. will fall?

您是否樂意就您認為美國將走向何方提供更多色彩？

Yes, it's still a bit early, and I know you're expecting us to say that.

是的，現在還為時過早，我知道您希望我們這麼說。

But I think what we're looking at is getting the learnings.

但我認為我們正在研究的是獲得知識。

We had learnings in Atlanta, and we've started some adjustments both in Atlanta and our subsequent launch in Richmond.

我們在亞特蘭大吸取了教訓，我們已經在亞特蘭大和我們隨後在里士滿的發布中開始了一些調整。

We do have future plans, and we'll be sharing much more at CAGNY.

我們確實有未來的計劃，我們將在 CAGNY 分享更多內容。

We will now take questions from the media.

我們現在將接受媒體的提問。

Your first question comes from the line of Jennifer Maloney of Wall Street Journal.

您的第一個問題來自華爾街日報的 Jennifer Maloney。

Howard, my question is for you.

霍華德，我的問題是給你的。

You personally made the case for this big bet on JUUL.

您親自為 JUUL 的這個大賭注提出了理由。

You made the case to shareholders, to your own board members.

您向股東和您自己的董事會成員提出了理由。

And I wonder what your feelings are now in this moment.

我想知道你此刻的感受。

Are you feeling frustrated that JUUL didn't act sooner to address regulators' concerns?

您是否對 JUUL 沒有盡快採取行動解決監管機構的擔憂感到沮喪？

Are you feeling regret for having invested in JUUL in the first place?

您是否為當初投資 JUUL 感到遺憾？

I have to tell you I'm highly disappointed in the financial performance of the JUUL investment.

我必須告訴你，我對 JUUL 投資的財務表現非常失望。

And I think that, that is reflected in the most recent valuation, which is substantially below what we had expected.

我認為，這反映在最近的估值中，大大低於我們的預期。

I think as you look at the drivers of that, there were a number of unexpected outcomes in the year.

我認為，當您查看其驅動因素時，這一年出現了許多意想不到的結果。

Probably the one that I think was hardest to have forecast was the appearance of the serious lung injury.

可能我認為最難預測的是嚴重肺損傷的出現。

Essentially, you had the CDC recommending to all e-vapor consumers, both THC and nicotine consumers, that they stop vaping.

從本質上講，您讓 CDC 向所有電子煙消費者（包括 THC 和尼古丁消費者）建議他們停止吸電子煙。

It took quite a bit of time to get clarification that the serious lung injury was primarily driven by THC black market products.

花了相當長的時間來澄清嚴重的肺損傷主要是由 THC 黑市產品驅動的。

So I think it's a disappointing performance.

所以我認為這是一個令人失望的表現。

I would, however, note that JUUL was the market share leader and the volume growth leader in 2019.

但是，我要指出的是，JUUL 是 2019 年市場份額的領導者和銷量增長的領導者。

And I think while there's going to be a reset in the category, that I think is an appropriate reset to drive down youth usage, I do think that they are well positioned following the reset to have more success in the future.

而且我認為雖然該類別將進行重置，但我認為這是降低青年使用率的適當重置，但我確實認為他們在重置後處於有利位置，可以在未來取得更大的成功。

And one more, if I may.

如果可以的話，還有一個。

This new revised agreement gives you an out on the noncompete, and it acknowledges that JUUL might be taken off the market by federal law.

這項新修訂的協議為您提供了競業禁止條款，並承認 JUUL 可能會根據聯邦法律退出市場。

So do you see that as a higher possibility now than you did before?

那麼你認為現在比以前更有可能嗎？

I don't think that our change in the agreement to have additional optionality if certain things happen in the future were necessarily driven by a change in our view of what might happen to JUUL.

我認為，如果將來發生某些事情，我們對協議的更改以具有額外的選擇權，不一定是由於我們對 JUUL 可能發生的事情的看法發生了變化。

But clearly, we decided that there's always a chance that something like that could happen.

但很明顯，我們認為這樣的事情總是有可能發生。

And we thought having the option to elect, under those circumstances, to be able to go back into the market and compete, we thought that had value.

我們認為在這種情況下可以選擇重新進入市場並參與競爭，我們認為這很有價值。

But I have to tell you, right now, our primary focus is on helping JUUL file a compelling and complete PMTA with the FDA by the May 2020 deadline.

但我必須告訴你，現在，我們的主要重點是幫助 JUUL 在 2020 年 5 月截止日期之前向 FDA 提交一份引人注目且完整的 PMTA。

Your next question comes from the line of Tiffany Kary of Bloomberg.

您的下一個問題來自彭博社的 Tiffany Kary。

Howard, question for you.

霍華德，問你。

How are you calculating the litigation risk from JUUL?

您如何計算 JUUL 的訴訟風險？

And are there steps you can take to isolate yourself given the way the deal was structured in terms of indemnification agreements or agreement not to indemnify?

鑑於交易是根據賠償協議或不賠償協議的方式構建的，您是否可以採取一些步驟來隔離自己？

Sure, why don't I let Billy take that?

當然，我為什麼不讓比利接受呢？

Yes.

是的。

So if you look at the way we assessed it is, it was really a change in the discount rate for the fourth quarter impairment.

因此，如果你看看我們評估它的方式，這實際上是第四季度減值貼現率的變化。

We really looked at assessing -- we did not assess the merits of the cases, whether they would be successful or not against JUUL.

我們真的考慮過評估——我們沒有評估案件的優劣，無論他們是否會成功反對 JUUL。

We really looked at assessing the risk of the uncertainty related to litigation.

我們確實著眼於評估與訴訟相關的不確定性風險。

You'll recall, if you go back even in our tobacco history when we were facing the AG suits and similar suits, the market itself put a higher level of discount on our share price compared to the S&P.

你會記得，如果你回顧我們的煙草歷史，當我們面對 AG 訴訟和類似訴訟時，與標準普爾相比，市場本身對我們的股價有更高的折扣。

Subsequent to that, that has gone from our share price.

在那之後，這已經從我們的股價中消失了。

But that's what was reflected in the fourth quarter impairment.

但這就是第四季度減值所反映的情況。

As far as the structure of the agreement, I would remind you, we do assess the merits of the cases that we're named in.

至於協議的結構，我要提醒你，我們確實評估了我們被指名的案件的案情。

And we think they're meritless, and we will be filing for a motion to dismiss.

我們認為他們毫無價值，我們將提出駁回動議。

And one more thing, if I may.

還有一件事，如果可以的話。

PMI has just made another deal with a Korean company.

PMI 剛剛與一家韓國公司達成了另一筆交易。

You're already moving on to IQOS 3. Would you ever sell in the U.S. other sorts of products that your sister company, Philip Morris, is selling overseas?

您已經轉向 IQOS 3。您是否會在美國銷售您的姊妹公司菲利普莫里斯在海外銷售的其他類型的產品？

We're always open-minded, but I won't comment on that at this time.

我們總是思想開放，但我現在不會對此發表評論。

Your next question comes from the line of Gaurav Jain of Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

Apologies for the drop.

為下降道歉。

So I had a couple of questions.

所以我有幾個問題。

Number one was just on the cadence of volume through the year.

排名第一的是全年的銷量節奏。

So Q4 '19 industry volumes were minus 4.5% when Q4 '18 comp was minus 5%.

因此，當 Q4 '18 comp 為負 5% 時，Q4 '19 行業銷量為負 4.5%。

And Q1 '19 to Q2 '19 comps are very easy when industry volumes were down 7%.

當行業銷量下降 7% 時，19 年第一季度到 19 年第二季度的比較非常容易。

So should we expect that volumes will be much better in the first half and Tobacco 21 impacts in the second half and that's how volumes progress through the year?

那麼，我們是否應該期望上半年的銷量會好得多，而煙草 21 會在下半年產生影響，而這就是全年銷量的進展情況？

Yes.

是的。

I don't know that it's possible to predict each quarter's cigarette volume decline with that level of precision.

我不知道是否有可能以這種精確度來預測每個季度的捲煙量下降。

I think we've provided you with kind of our perspective on what the puts and takes might be.

我認為我們已經為您提供了我們對投入和投入可能是什麼的看法。

But I would hesitate to forecast on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

但我會猶豫按季度進行預測。

Sure.

當然。

My second question is on on!, that you mentioned you will be filing a PMTA.

我的第二個問題是關於！，您提到您將提交 PMTA。

But would you also be thinking of filing an MRTP?

但是您是否也會考慮提交 MRTP？

And could you also remind us where you are with the Copenhagen MRTP as well?

您能否也提醒我們您在哥本哈根 MRTP 中的位置？

Sure.

當然。

Right now, our first priority is to file the PMTA by the May deadline.

目前，我們的首要任務是在 5 月截止日期之前提交 PMTA。

But you are right to point out that, that is a product that I think has potential to receive an MRTP.

但是您指出這是對的，我認為這是一款有可能獲得 MRTP 的產品。

And I think we'll turn to that task after we get the May filing competed -- completed.

我認為我們將在完成 5 月提交的文件後轉向該任務 - 完成。

And you are also right that it's been about a year since the TPSAC hearing on Copenhagen.

你也說得對，TPSAC 哥本哈根聽證會已經過去了大約一年。

We thought that we had a good hearing with regard to Copenhagen as a potentially reduced risk product, and we would expect to hear on Copenhagen anytime now.

我們認為我們對哥本哈根作為一種潛在的降低風險的產品有很好的了解，我們希望現在隨時可以聽到關於哥本哈根的消息。

I'll now turn the floor back over to management for any closing comments.

我現在將把發言權轉回管理層，以徵求任何結束意見。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

In summary, while the JUUL investment and e-vapor category remained challenging, our core tobacco businesses are strong and resilient, delivering significant cash and providing us with the flexibility to invest in our noncombustible business platform.

總而言之，雖然 JUUL 投資和電子蒸汽類別仍然具有挑戰性，但我們的核心煙草業務強勁且有彈性，提供了大量現金，並為我們提供了投資於我們的不可燃業務平台的靈活性。

We continue to believe that Altria's enhanced business platform best positions us to succeed under various future category scenarios.

我們仍然相信，奧馳亞增強的業務平台最能幫助我們在未來的各種類別情景下取得成功。

Lastly and most importantly, I want to thank our employees for their accomplishments and relentless dedication over the past year.

最後也是最重要的一點，我要感謝我們的員工在過去一年中所取得的成就和不懈的奉獻。

Because of them, I have even greater confidence in our ability to succeed into the future.

因為他們，我對我們未來取得成功的能力更有信心。

Thanks again for joining us, and please contact our Investor Relations team if you have further questions.

再次感謝您加入我們，如果您還有其他問題，請聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

That does conclude today's conference call.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。