奧馳亞 (MO) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2020 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加奧馳亞集團 2020 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。今天的電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括奧馳亞管理層的講話和問答環節。電話會議上的投資界和媒體代表將能夠在準備好的發言結束後提出問題。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給奧馳亞客戶服務投資者關係副總裁 Mac Livingston。請繼續，先生。

Thanks, Laurie. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's fourth quarter and full year business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation and quarterly metrics are all available on our website at altria.com.

謝謝，勞裡。早上好，感謝您加入我們。今天上午，奧馳亞的 CEO Billy Gifford；我們的首席財務官 Sal Mancuso 將討論奧馳亞第四季度和全年的業務業績。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，提供了我們的結果。發布、演示和季度指標都可以在我們的網站 altria.com 上找到。

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2019. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com.

在我們今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們會將結果與 2019 年同期進行比較。我們的評論包含前瞻性和警示性陳述以及對未來結果的預測。請查看今天收益發布結束時的前瞻性和警示性聲明部分，了解可能導致實際結果與預測存在重大差異的各種因素。未來的股息支付和股票回購仍由奧馳亞董事會酌情決定。奧馳亞根據美國公認會計原則報告其財務業績。今天的電話會議將包含報告和調整後的各種運營結果。調整後的結果不包括影響與報告結果比較的特殊項目。這些非公認會計原則財務措施和對賬的描述包含在今天的收益發布和我們的網站 altria.com 上。

Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older.

最後，今天的評論中對煙草消費者或特定煙草類別或細分消費者的所有提及均指 21 歲或以上的現有成年煙草消費者。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給比利。

Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Altria delivered outstanding results in 2020 and managed through the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our tobacco businesses were resilient, and our employees demonstrated unwavering commitment to their work, colleagues and communities. Our employees continue to move Altria forward, and we believe we're making steady progress towards our 10-year vision to responsibly lead the transition of adult smokers to a noncombustible future.

謝謝，麥克。早上好，感謝您加入我們。奧馳亞在 2020 年取得了出色的成績，並成功應對了 COVID-19 大流行帶來的挑戰。我們的煙草業務具有韌性，我們的員工對他們的工作、同事和社區表現出堅定不移的承諾。我們的員工繼續推動奧馳亞前進，我們相信我們正在朝著我們的 10 年願景穩步推進，以負責任地引導成年吸煙者向不可燃的未來過渡。

We continue to execute against the strategies we previously shared, including maximizing profits in our combustible businesses, responsibly expanding our noncombustible products, and demonstrating science-based leadership in the external environment. We remain active in our communities, supporting relief efforts for the pandemic and the West Coast wildfires. We're committed to driving positive change and addressing racial and economic inequities.

我們將繼續執行我們之前共享的戰略，包括最大化可燃業務的利潤，負責任地擴展我們的不可燃產品，以及在外部環境中展示基於科學的領導力。我們繼續活躍在我們的社區，支持大流行和西海岸野火的救援工作。我們致力於推動積極的變革並解決種族和經濟不平等問題。

Change starts from within, and our employees are leading our efforts to build a more diverse inclusive and equitable organization. Our 11 employee resource groups are helping promote cultural awareness and diversity in our workplace and within our communities. Two of these organizations, Mosaic and C, were recently recognized for their contributions by the national LGBT Chamber of Commerce and by the Virginia Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, respectively. We also acknowledge the importance of addressing environmental challenges, and we've established ambitious goals for 2030. Last month, we were among the 1% of companies awarded a AA rating from CDP for climate and water stewardship. We're proud of these efforts, and I look forward to sharing more details about our ESG initiatives next month at CAGNY.

變革從內部開始，我們的員工正在帶領我們努力建立一個更加多元化、包容和公平的組織。我們的 11 個員工資源小組正在幫助提高我們工作場所和社區內的文化意識和多樣性。其中兩個組織，馬賽克和 C，最近分別獲得了國家 LGBT 商會和弗吉尼亞西班牙裔商會的認可。我們也承認應對環境挑戰的重要性，並為 2030 年制定了雄心勃勃的目標。上個月，我們是 CDP 授予氣候和水資源管理 AA 評級的 1% 的公司之一。我們為這些努力感到自豪，我期待下個月在 CAGNY 分享有關我們 ESG 計劃的更多細節。

2020 was a dynamic year in the tobacco industry, with notable changes in each category. Tobacco consumers continue to adopt noncombustible alternatives to cigarettes. Most significantly in the oral tobacco space, with rapid growth in oral nicotine pouches off of a small base and a return to moderate volume growth in moist smokeless tobacco.

2020 年是煙草行業充滿活力的一年，每個類別都發生了顯著變化。煙草消費者繼續採用不燃燒的香煙替代品。最顯著的是在口腔煙草領域，口腔尼古丁袋從一個小底座快速增長，而潮濕的無菸煙草則恢復到適度的體積增長。

The heated tobacco category also showed encouraging signs of smoker interest, though it remains in its early stages. The e-vapor category, however, which has been the biggest driver of smoker conversion over the last several years contracted in 2020 as it continues to undergo a transition period, pending FDA market determinations. And in combustibles, cigarette volumes were a little changed from 2019 as the COVID-19 pandemic alter smoker behaviors and purchasing patterns.

加熱煙草類別也顯示出令人鼓舞的吸煙者興趣跡象，儘管它仍處於早期階段。然而，過去幾年一直是吸煙者轉變的最大推動力的電子蒸汽類別在 2020 年收縮，因為它繼續經歷過渡期，等待 FDA 市場決定。在可燃物方面，由於 COVID-19 大流行改變了吸煙者的行為和購買模式，捲菸數量與 2019 年相比略有變化。

Looking at the tobacco space in total, estimated equivalized volumes remained stable. In fact, over the last 5 years, we estimate that total tobacco volumes have only decreased by 1% on a compounded annual basis. While 2020 represented a pause in some industry trends away from combustible products, our plans to achieve our 10-year vision remains centered around building a deep understanding of evolving tobacco consumer preferences, meeting these preferences by expanding the awareness and availability of our noncombustible product portfolio and when authorized by the FDA, engaging with smokers to educate them, on the benefits of switching to alternative products.

從總體上看煙草空間，估計的等效數量保持穩定。事實上，在過去 5 年中，我們估計煙草總銷量每年僅下降 1%。雖然 2020 年代表了一些行業趨勢遠離可燃產品的暫停，但我們實現 10 年願景的計劃仍然圍繞著深入了解不斷變化的煙草消費者偏好，通過擴大我們的不可燃產品組合的意識和可用性來滿足這些偏好並在獲得 FDA 授權時，與吸煙者接觸，教育他們改用替代產品的好處。

Let's now turn to our 2020 business results. Altria's full year adjusted diluted earnings per share grew 3.6%, driven by strong performance from our tobacco businesses. We also returned nearly $6.3 billion in cash to our shareholders in the form of dividends. And our Board increased the dividend for the 55th time in the past 51 years.

現在讓我們轉向我們 2020 年的業務成果。在我們煙草業務強勁表現的推動下，奧馳亞全年調整後的攤薄每股收益增長了 3.6%。我們還以股息的形式向股東返還了近 63 億美元的現金。我們的董事會在過去 51 年中第 55 次增加了股息。

Our Smokable Product segment continues to be the engine that powers our 10-year vision. Generating significant cash that can be invested in noncombustible products and return to shareholders. This segment has demonstrated strong profit growth in a variety of marketplace conditions. Over the last 5 years, smokeable segment adjusted OCI has grown by 5.5% on a compounded annual basis, and its segment has delivered excellent financial performance across varied volume and market share dynamics. We continue to be pleased with the performance of our combustible businesses, and Sal will provide more details on this segment in his remarks.

我們的可吸煙產品部門仍然是推動我們 10 年願景的引擎。產生可投資於不可燃產品並回報股東的大量現金。該部門在各種市場條件下均表現出強勁的利潤增長。在過去 5 年中，可吸煙部門調整後的 OCI 年復合增長率為 5.5%，其部門在不同的數量和市場份額動態中取得了出色的財務業績。我們繼續對可燃業務的表現感到滿意，Sal 將在他的講話中提供有關該細分市場的更多詳細信息。

Moving to our noncombustible offerings. We're pleased with the continued strength of USSTC's most smokeless tobacco business and the encouraging results from our other noncombustible products. We believe our products and investments with the oral tobacco, e-vapor and heated tobacco categories present compelling options for the millions of U.S. smokers looking for alternatives to cigarettes.

轉向我們的不可燃產品。我們對 USSTC 最無菸煙草業務的持續實力以及我們其他不可燃產品的令人鼓舞的結果感到高興。我們相信，我們在口腔煙草、電子蒸汽和加熱煙草類別方面的產品和投資為數百萬尋找捲菸替代品的美國吸煙者提供了令人信服的選擇。

In oral tobacco, we believe we have an unmatched portfolio of MST and all nicotine pouch products. Copenhagen remains the leading oral tobacco brand and delivered strong volume and profit performance for the year. We're also excited about the potential for on! and believe it's a satisfying product for both smokers and dippers.

在口腔煙草方面，我們相信我們擁有無與倫比的 MST 和所有尼古丁袋產品組合。哥本哈根仍然是領先的口腔煙草品牌，並在本年度實現了強勁的銷量和利潤表現。我們也對 on 的潛力感到興奮！並相信它對吸煙者和吸食者來說都是令人滿意的產品。

Helix made significant progress in its first full year of operations. Over the last 12 months, our talented regulatory affairs team assist the Helix and falling PMTAs for the on! portfolio, which we believe demonstrate that the products are appropriate for the protection of public health. Our highly skilled engineers and machine operators supported Helix in establishing a manufacturing footprint for on! in our Richmond facility, and Helix has reached annualized capacity for on! of 50 million cans.

Helix 在其第一個全年運營中取得了重大進展。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們才華橫溢的監管事務團隊一直在協助 Helix 和下降的 PMTA！產品組合，我們認為這表明產品適用於保護公眾健康。我們技術精湛的工程師和機器操作員支持 Helix 在 on! 建立製造足跡！在我們的里士滿工廠，Helix 已達到年產能！ 5000萬罐。

The team continues to install a machinery, and Helix expects unconstrained manufacturing capacity for the U.S. market by midyear 2021. And the Helix brand management and AGDC sales teams collaborated to steadily increase the retail distribution of on! during the year and executed innovative trial generating promotions that demonstrated the ability for on! to gain traction with smokers and dippers.

該團隊繼續安裝機器，Helix 預計到 2021 年年中美國市場的製造能力將不受限制。Helix 品牌管理和 AGDC 銷售團隊合作穩步增加 on!在這一年中，並執行了創新試驗產生的促銷活動，證明了 on!以吸引吸煙者和吸食者。

on! was sold in approximately 78,000 stores at the end of 2020, up nearly 40% from the third quarter and more than 5x the store count from the end of 2019. In stores with distribution, on! achieved a retail share of 2.4 percentage points of the oral tobacco category in 2020, with significant growth coming into the second half of the year.

上！截至 2020 年底，在約 78,000 家門店銷售，比第三季度增長近 40%，是 2019 年底門店數量的 5 倍以上。在有分銷的門店中，加油！ 2020年實現口菸類零售份額2.4個百分點，進入下半年顯著增長。

Helix has strong plans for the year ahead and is focused on removing capacity constraints, reaching its retail distribution targets, building brand equity and converting smokers. We're confident in the on! proposition and believe its satisfying range of nicotine strengths and flavors and unique packaging position it well for success in the rapidly growing nicotine pouch space.

Helix 為來年制定了強有力的計劃，專注於消除產能限制、實現零售分銷目標、建立品牌資產和轉變吸煙者。我們有信心上！主張並相信其令人滿意的尼古丁強度和口味範圍以及獨特的包裝使其在快速增長的尼古丁袋空間中取得成功。

Moving to e-vapor. We estimate that total category volumes decreased by 10% for the full year. The category continues to undergo a transition period as FDA prepares to make market determinations on the thousands of PMTAs filed by the September 2020 statutory deadline. We continue to believe that e-vapor products can play an important role in tobacco harm reduction and that sustainable e-vapor category will be one that consists solely of FDA authorized products. We believe the category's long-term trajectory will be determined by regulatory decisions, legislative and tax policy and innovation that best addresses smoker and vapor preferences.

轉向電子蒸汽。我們估計全年總類別數量下降了 10%。隨著 FDA 準備對 2020 年 9 月法定截止日期前提交的數千份 PMTA 做出市場決定，該類別將繼續經歷一個過渡期。我們仍然相信電子蒸汽產品可以在減少煙草危害方面發揮重要作用，可持續電子蒸汽類別將僅由 FDA 授權產品組成。我們認為，該類別的長期發展軌跡將取決於最能解決吸煙者和蒸汽偏好的監管決策、立法和稅收政策以及創新。

In the heated tobacco category, PM USA continues to expand IQOS and Marlboro Heatsticks responsibly and in a disciplined manner. PM USA's 2020 accomplishments included: Launching in Charlotte with a more disruptive retail fixture; expanding the retail distribution of Heatsticks to approximately 1,000 total stores; introducing devices into select Charlotte convenience stores; developing an array of new digital tools, including mobile video chat capability, which gives p.m. USA's customer care experts, a virtual option to build connections and support age-verified smokers through their conversion journey and communicating with smokers using the FDA-authorized reduced exposure claim about the benefits of switching from cigarettes.

在加熱煙草類別中，PM USA 繼續以負責任和有紀律的方式擴展 IQOS 和萬寶路加熱棒。 PM USA 2020 年的成就包括： 在夏洛特推出更具顛覆性的零售設備；將 Heatsticks 的零售分銷擴展到大約 1,000 家商店；將設備引入精選的夏洛特便利店；開發一系列新的數字工具，包括移動視頻聊天功能，它可以讓 p.m.美國的客戶服務專家，這是一個虛擬選項，可以建立聯繫並支持經過年齡驗證的吸煙者的轉換過程，並使用 FDA 授權的減少接觸聲明與吸煙者交流關於戒菸的好處。

We're excited that the FDA has authorized the IQOS 3 device for sale in the U.S. The new device offers several enhancements compared to the current 2.4 version, including a longer battery life and a faster recharging time. PM USA expects to begin selling the new device shortly and it will be available across all existing retail channels in the Atlanta, Charlotte and Richmond markets. PM USA also recently introduced new packaging for Heatsticks and has renamed the 3 currently authorized heatstick SKUs as Amber, Blue menthol and Green menthol. The new packs feature a cleaner look, and PM USA believes the naming convention will facilitate heatstick line extensions in the future should additional variants be authorized by the FDA.

我們很高興 FDA 已授權 IQOS 3 設備在美國銷售。與當前的 2.4 版本相比，新設備提供了多項增強功能，包括更長的電池壽命和更快的充電時間。 PM USA 預計將很快開始銷售新設備，並將在亞特蘭大、夏洛特和里士滿市場的所有現有零售渠道上銷售。 PM USA 最近還為 Heatsticks 推出了新包裝，並將目前授權的 3 個 heatstick SKU 重命名為 Amber、Blue menthol 和 Green menthol。新包裝具有更簡潔的外觀，PM USA 認為，如果 FDA 授權其他變體，命名約定將有助於將來擴展加熱棒產品線。

PM USA is focused on expanding the availability and awareness of IQOS, achieving its contractual performance requirements and remains on track with its 2021 plans to expand IQOS and heatsticks into 4 new metro markets and surrounding geographies. We believe that P.M. USA has the right approach to maximize its store mover advantage while we're responsibly positioning the U.S. heated tobacco category for long-term growth and profitability.

PM USA 專注於擴大 IQOS 的可用性和知名度，實現其合同性能要求，並繼續按照其 2021 年計劃將 IQOS 和加熱棒擴展到 4 個新的地鐵市場和周邊地區。我們相信 P.M.在我們負責任地定位美國加熱煙草類別以實現長期增長和盈利的同時，美國有正確的方法來最大限度地發揮其商店搬運優勢。

Let's now turn to our financial outlook for 2021. Our plans for the year ahead include accelerating investments in support of our 10-year vision, which we expect to fund through the financial strength of our tobacco businesses. The external environment remains dynamic, however, and we're monitoring various factors, including unemployment rates, fiscal stimulus, tobacco consumer dynamics, including stay-at-home practices, disposable income, purchasing patterns and adoption of noncombustible products, regulatory and legislative developments, the timing and breadth of COVID-19 vaccine deployment and expectations for adjusted earnings contributions from our alcohol assets.

現在讓我們談談我們對 2021 年的財務展望。我們未來一年的計劃包括加快投資以支持我們的 10 年願景，我們希望通過煙草業務的財務實力來提供資金。然而，外部環境仍然充滿活力，我們正在監測各種因素，包括失業率、財政刺激、煙草消費者動態，包括居家實踐、可支配收入、購買模式和不可燃產品的採用、監管和立法發展、 COVID-19 疫苗部署的時間和廣度以及對我們酒精資產調整後收益貢獻的預期。

Taking these factors into consideration, we expect to deliver 2021 full year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.49 to $4.62. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 3% to 6% from a $4.36 base in 2020. Our 2021 guidance incorporates planned investments to drive smoker conversion to noncombustible products, including continued marketplace investments to expand the availability and awareness of our noncombustible offerings, building an industry-leading consumer engagement system that enhances data collection and insights in support of conversion and increased noncombustible product research and development. We expect our 2021 adjusted EPS growth to come in the last 3 quarters of the year, primarily due to prior year comparisons, which includes 1 fewer smokable products shipping day in the first quarter. Altria's tobacco businesses delivered excellent results over the past year, and I'd like to thank our employees for their hard work. Their dedication drives their strong performance, and it's their passion and commitment that makes me excited for Altria's future.

考慮到這些因素，我們預計 2021 年全年調整後的攤薄每股收益將在 4.49 美元至 4.62 美元之間。該範圍代表調整後的稀釋後每股收益增長率從 2020 年的 4.36 美元基數為 3% 至 6%。我們的 2021 年指導包括計劃投資以推動吸煙者轉換為不可燃產品，包括持續的市場投資以擴大我們不可燃產品的可用性和知名度，建立行業領先的消費者參與系統，增強數據收集和洞察力，以支持轉換和增加不可燃產品的研發。我們預計 2021 年調整後的每股收益將在今年最後 3 個季度實現增長，這主要是由於與去年同期相比，其中包括第一季度可吸煙產品的發貨天數減少了 1 個。奧馳亞的煙草業務在過去一年中取得了優異的成績，我要感謝我們員工的辛勤工作。他們的奉獻精神推動了他們的強勁表現，正是他們的熱情和承諾讓我對奧馳亞的未來感到興奮。

I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our financial performance.

我現在將把它交給 Sal，以提供有關商業環境和我們財務業績的更多細節。

Thanks, Billy. Let me begin by providing an update on U.S. tobacco consumers. Economic conditions remain challenging for consumers in the fourth quarter as unemployment rates remain high and the enhanced benefits from the original pandemic assistance package were fully exhausted. However, we believe consumers continue their stay-at-home practices in the fourth quarter, contributing to more tobacco usage occasions and higher tobacco discretionary spending.

謝謝，比利。首先讓我介紹一下美國煙草消費者的最新情況。由於失業率居高不下，而最初的大流行援助計劃所帶來的更多好處已完全用盡，第四季度的經濟狀況對消費者來說仍然充滿挑戰。然而，我們認為消費者在第四季度繼續他們的居家習慣，導致更多的煙草使用場合和更高的煙草可自由支配支出。

At retail, we estimate that the fourth quarter, the number of tobacco consumer trips to the store was slightly lower than prior levels. But tobacco expenditures per trip remained elevated versus the year ago period.

在零售方面，我們估計第四季度煙草消費者前往商店的次數略低於之前的水平。但與去年同期相比，每次旅行的煙草支出仍然較高。

Turning now to our businesses. The Smokable Products segment delivered excellent financial and marketplace results in 2020. The segment grew full year adjusted OCI by over 10% and expanded its adjusted OCI margins by almost 2 percentage points. The Smokeable segment also achieved robust net price realization of 6.7% for the year, with PM USA's revenue growth management framework continuing to enhance the segment's top line performance.

現在轉向我們的業務。可吸煙產品部門在 2020 年取得了出色的財務和市場業績。該部門全年調整後的 OCI 增長了 10% 以上，調整後的 OCI 利潤率提高了近 2 個百分點。可吸煙部門今年也實現了 6.7% 的強勁淨價實現，PM USA 的收入增長管理框架繼續提高該部門的收入表現。

Smokeable segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 0.0 -- I'm sorry, 0.4% in 2020 versus the prior year. When adjusted for trade inventories, calendar differences and other factors, we estimate that full year segment cigarette volumes declined by 2%.

可抽吸部分報告稱，國內捲煙銷量下降了 0.0 - 對不起，2020 年與上一年相比下降了 0.4%。在對貿易庫存、日曆差異和其他因素進行調整後，我們估計全年部分捲菸銷量下降了 2%。

At the industry level, we estimate that full year domestic cigarette volumes were unchanged versus the prior year after adjusting for the same factors.

在行業層面，我們估計在調整相同因素後，全年國內捲煙銷量與上年相比沒有變化。

Looking ahead, we expect 2021 cigarette industry volume trends to be most influenced by smoker stay-at-home practices, unemployment rates, fiscal stimulus, cross-category movement, the timing and breadth of COVID-19 vaccine deployment and consumer purchasing behavior following the vaccine.

展望未來，我們預計 2021 年捲菸行業的銷量趨勢將受到吸煙者居家實踐、失業率、財政刺激、跨類別運動、COVID-19 疫苗部署的時間和廣度以及消費者購買行為的最大影響。疫苗。

Due to the uncertain timing and magnitude of each of these dynamics, we're not providing a cigarette industry outlook. We believe the degree of cross-category movement will be influenced by several factors, including consumer perceptions of the relative risk of noncombustible products compared to cigarettes, FDA determinations on PMTA filings and legislative actions. We'll continue to monitor these factors and update you on the pandemic driven and underlying smoker behaviors that we observe in the category.

由於這些動態的時間和幅度都不確定，我們沒有提供捲菸行業的前景。我們認為跨類別流動的程度將受到幾個因素的影響，包括消費者對不可燃產品與捲菸相比的相對風險的看法、FDA 對 PMTA 申報的決定和立法行動。我們將繼續監控這些因素，並向您介紹我們在該類別中觀察到的大流行驅動和潛在的吸煙者行為。

Turning to marketplace performance. Marlboro's fourth quarter retail share was 43.3%, up 2/10 versus the prior year and unchanged sequentially. Marlboro continued to benefit in the fourth quarter from smoker preferences toward familiar products during disruptive times and continued lower promotional spending among competitive brands versus the first half of 2020.

轉向市場表現。萬寶路第四季度的零售份額為 43.3%，比上年增長 2/10，環比持平。萬寶路在第四季度繼續受益於吸煙者在顛覆性時期對熟悉產品的偏好，以及與 2020 年上半年相比，競爭品牌的促銷支出繼續下降。

For the full year, Marlboro's retail share declined 3/10 to 43%. Marlboro's full year share performance was impacted by the movement of older consumers coming back into cigarettes from e-vapor, which we observed at the beginning of 2020. This demographic has a greater tendency to purchase discount cigarettes than the category average, which increased discount segment share to start the year. We continue to be pleased with Marlboro's performance and believe its leading brand equity positions the brand well to deliver on its long-term profit potential.

全年，萬寶路的零售份額下降 3/10 至 43%。萬寶路的全年份額表現受到老年消費者從電子煙重新吸食捲菸的影響，我們在 2020 年初觀察到這一點。這一人群購買折扣捲菸的趨勢高於同類平均水平，從而增加了折扣部分分享開始新的一年。我們繼續對萬寶路的表現感到滿意，並相信其領先的品牌資產使該品牌能夠很好地發揮其長期盈利潛力。

In discount, total segment retail share was 24.5% in the fourth quarter, unchanged versus the year ago period and up 2/10 sequentially. For the full year, discount segment retail share increased 3/10 to 24.5%, driven by the cross-category movement observed at the beginning of 2020 and growth in deep discount products.

折現後，第四季度總零售份額為 24.5%，與去年同期持平，環比增長 2/10。全年，折扣細分市場零售份額增長 3/10 至 24.5%，這得益於 2020 年初觀察到的跨品類運動和深度折扣產品的增長。

Moving to cigars, Middleton provided a strong contribution to the smokable segments financial results and continue to successfully navigate the regulatory environment. Reported cigar shipment volumes increased 9% for the year. And Black & Mild remain the leading Tip cigar brand. Middleton has also received market orders or exemptions from FDA, covering over 97% of its volume.

轉向雪茄，米德爾頓為可吸煙部門的財務業績做出了巨大貢獻，並繼續成功地駕馭監管環境。報告的雪茄出貨量今年增長了 9%。 Black & Mild 仍然是領先的 Tip 雪茄品牌。米德爾頓還收到了 FDA 的市場訂單或豁免，佔其銷量的 97% 以上。

Turning to noncombustibles. We're very pleased with the performance of the Oral Tobacco Products segment. Segment adjusted OCI increased 7.3% for the year. And it maintained its strong adjusted OCI margin of 71.7 percentage points despite increased investments behind on!. Reported oral tobacco segment volumes increased by 1.2% in 2020, driven by on! oral nicotine pouches. In MST, Copenhagen reported shipment volumes were unchanged versus the prior year.

轉向不可燃物。我們對口腔煙草產品部門的表現感到非常滿意。分部調整後的 OCI 全年增長 7.3%。儘管投資有所增加，但它保持了強勁的 71.7 個百分點的調整後 OCI 利潤率！在 on!口服尼古丁袋。在 MST，哥本哈根報告的出貨量與去年相比沒有變化。

When adjusted for calendar differences, trade inventory movements and other factors, full year oral tobacco segment volumes increased by an estimated 1%. Full year 2020 retail share for the oral tobacco segment was 49.8%, down 2.7 percentage points due to the increased adoption of oral nicotine pouches. We remain pleased with the performance of Copenhagen in the MSC category, and we're excited about the growth potential of on! as we continue to expand capacity and distribution.

在對日曆差異、貿易庫存變動和其他因素進行調整後，全年口服煙草部分的銷量估計增加了 1%。 2020 年口服煙草細分市場的全年零售份額為 49.8%，由於口服尼古丁袋的採用率增加，下降了 2.7 個百分點。我們仍然對哥本哈根在 MSC 類別中的表現感到滿意，我們對 on! 的增長潛力感到興奮！隨著我們繼續擴大產能和分銷。

In alcohol, the pandemic negatively impacted the 2020 financial performance of both Ste. Michelle and our equity investment in ABI. Ste. Michelle's full year adjusted OCI decreased approximately 30%, driven primarily by lower on-premise and direct-to-consumer sales, partially offset by higher pricing. And in beer, we recorded $157 million of adjusted equity earnings in the fourth quarter, representing Altria's share of ABI's third quarter 2020 results, and a decrease of more than 19% from the same period last year.

在酒精方面，大流行對兩個 Ste 的 2020 年財務業績產生了負面影響。 Michelle 和我們在 ABI 的股權投資。聖。 Michelle 的全年調整後 OCI 下降了約 30%，主要是由於內部和直接面向消費者的銷售額下降，部分被較高的定價所抵消。在啤酒方面，我們在第四季度錄得 1.57 億美元的調整後股本收益，代表奧馳亞在 ABI 2020 年第三季度業績中的份額，比去年同期下降超過 19%。

For the full year, we've recorded $540 million in adjusted equity earnings from ABI, down over 36% from 2019. In our all other operating category, we recorded $172 million in adjusted losses for the year, more than half of which related to noncash reductions and the estimated residual value of certain assets at Philip Morris Capital Corporation. As of year-end 2020, the net finance assets balance for PMCC was $320 million. We expect to continue reducing this balance in 2021 through rent and asset sales and fully -- and expect to fully complete the PMCC wind down by the end of 2022.

全年，我們從 ABI 錄得 5.4 億美元的調整後股權收益，比 2019 年下降 36% 以上。在我們所有其他經營類別中，我們錄得 1.72 億美元的調整後虧損，其中一半以上與菲利普莫里斯資本公司的非現金減少和某些資產的估計殘值。截至 2020 年底，PMCC 的淨金融資產餘額為 3.2 億美元。我們預計將在 2021 年通過租金和資產出售繼續減少這一餘額，並完全 - 並預計到 2022 年底完全完成 PMCC 的關閉。

Moving to capital allocation. Our balance sheet remains strong, and our tobacco businesses are highly cash generative. Dividends remain our primary vehicle for returning cash to shareholders. And our long-term objective is a dividend target payout ratio of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted earnings per share. We believe our dividend target payout ratio provide significant shareholder return while allowing for flexibility in our capital allocation. We perform rigorous analysis to determine the best use of excess cash, including evaluating options for reinvesting behind our 10-year vision, refinancing our long-term debt and repurchasing shares. Yesterday, our Board authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by June 30, 2022. The new authorization reflects the significant value the Board believes exists in our shares today.

轉向資本配置。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，我們的煙草業務具有很高的現金生成能力。股息仍然是我們向股東返還現金的主要工具。我們的長期目標是股息目標支付率約為調整後稀釋每股收益的 80%。我們相信，我們的股息目標派息率可提供可觀的股東回報，同時為我們的資本分配提供靈活性。我們進行嚴格的分析以確定多餘現金的最佳使用方式，包括評估我們 10 年願景的再投資選擇、為我們的長期債務再融資和回購股票。昨天，我們的董事會批准了一項新的 20 億美元的股票回購計劃，我們預計該計劃將在 2022 年 6 月 30 日之前完成。新的授權反映了董事會認為今天我們的股票存在的重要價值。

With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items.

這樣，我們就結束了，比利和我很樂意回答你的問題。在編譯電話時，我會提醒您，今天的收益發布和我們的非 GAAP 對賬可在 altria.com 上獲得。我們還發布了通常的季度指標，包括定價、庫存和其他項目。

Operator, do we have any questions?

接線員，我們有什麼問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 RBC 的 Nik Modi。

Yes. Just 2 questions. Just 2 questions from my side. Just if you guys can give us maybe a state of the union of what you're seeing from the excise tax front, that would be helpful. And then the broader question is just on Marlboro. I mean, very good share performance, which could be surprising given some of the stimulus was kind of -- was over. We didn't -- we had kind of an air pocket in terms of government stimulus. What really drove that? I mean, you spoke in your prepared comments about well recognized brands, but I'm just trying to get underneath that there's other drivers like price gap management or the Marlboro Rewards program and how that played a role in terms of kind of shifting the share trajectory because it's been losing share for a number of quarters now.

是的。就2個問題。我這邊只有 2 個問題。如果你們可以給我們一個關於你從消費稅方面看到的工會狀態，那將是有幫助的。然後更廣泛的問題只是關於萬寶路。我的意思是，非常好的股票表現，考慮到一些刺激措施已經結束，這可能令人驚訝。我們沒有——就政府刺激而言，我們有一種氣袋。是什麼真正推動了這一點？我的意思是，您在準備好的評論中談到了知名品牌，但我只是想深入了解還有其他驅動因素，例如價格差距管理或萬寶路獎勵計劃，以及它如何在份額轉移方面發揮作用軌跡，因為它現在已經失去了幾個季度的份額。

Yes. Nick, we'll take them in the order. On the excise tax front, I would remind you that we had 2 state excise tax increases happened at the beginning of this year. Certainly with the build that the states have racked up responding to COVID, certainly it'd be a little bit more challenging excise tax environment. We have a great government affairs team, as you know, Nik, and they engage on both sides of the aisle across the states and really know how to engage on that.

是的。尼克，我們會按順序來的。在消費稅方面，我想提醒你，今年年初我們有兩次州消費稅上調。當然，隨著各州對 COVID 的反應越來越大，消費稅環境肯定會更具挑戰性。正如你所知，我們有一個很棒的政府事務團隊，尼克，他們在各州的過道兩邊都參與其中，並且真的知道如何參與。

From that standpoint, though, I think right now, most governments are focused on how to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control. And so there's a little bit of chatter across the states. But nothing to point out at this point. But certainly, it will be a challenging environment as they look to pay the bills related to their response to COVID-19.

不過，從這個角度來看，我認為現在大多數政府都專注於如何控制 COVID-19 大流行。因此，各州之間存在一些喋喋不休。但在這一點上沒有什麼要指出的。但可以肯定的是，這將是一個充滿挑戰的環境，因為他們希望支付與應對 COVID-19 相關的賬單。

On Marlboro, Nik, I think what you saw was -- and Sal highlighted in his comments. People were concerned at the beginning of the year. We tried to highlight for the analyst and investor community that what we saw was consumers moving back from e-vapor back into cigarettes and both premium brands and discount brands benefited from it, but because it tended to skew older adult smoker coming back, we know that they have a proclivity towards discount brands. We didn't panic when that was taking place. We knew what -- we felt like we knew what was behind that. And I think you've just seen the strength of the mobile brand through time. Certainly, there were some competitive premium brands that had some extra resources in the marketplace at the beginning of 2020. We saw those lessen as we progress through 2020.

關於萬寶路，尼克，我認為你看到的是——薩爾在他的評論中強調了這一點。年初，人們很擔心。我們試圖向分析師和投資者群體強調，我們看到的是消費者從電子煙重新回到捲菸領域，高端品牌和折扣品牌都從中受益，但由於它往往會導致老年吸煙者回歸，我們知道他們有折扣品牌的傾向。發生這種情況時，我們並沒有驚慌。我們知道什麼——我們覺得我們知道這背後的原因。而且我認為您剛剛看到了移動品牌的實力。當然，在 2020 年初，一些有競爭力的高端品牌在市場上有一些額外的資源。隨著我們到 2020 年的進展，我們看到這些資源減少了。

And to your point, the programs we have in place and the Marlboro brand team do an excellent job of engaging with the consumers and really building loyalty through time, whether you mentioned the rewards program but other programs as well. And I think that's the strength of the mobile brand, and we're excited about where it stands.

就您而言，我們現有的計劃和萬寶路品牌團隊在與消費者互動方面做得非常出色，並且隨著時間的推移真正建立了忠誠度，無論您提到獎勵計劃還是其他計劃。我認為這就是移動品牌的優勢所在，我們對其所處的位置感到興奮。

Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Bonnie Herzog。

So I guess my first question is on your EPS guidance. I guess I'd be curious to hear, what does your guidance assume in terms of the tax increases that you just touched on? I mean I'm wondering, Billy, if it does consider a potential federal excise tax increase maybe at the low end?

所以我想我的第一個問題是關於你的 EPS 指導。我想我很想知道，您的指導對您剛剛提到的增稅有何假設？我的意思是我想知道，比利，如果它確實考慮可能在低端增加聯邦消費稅？

And then I guess I'm a bit surprised you were unable to provide even a wide range for your cig volume expectations this year. I certainly understand there's a lot of uncertainty right now in our world. But you must have, I guess, some sense of the range of your SIG volumes, again, given your EPS guidance. So maybe you could touch on that for us a bit, just at a high level, whether or not you expect cig volumes this year will possibly revert back to historical declines, maybe below historical declines given the tough comps and the potential for greater excise tax increases?

然後我想我有點驚訝你無法為你今年的 cig 量預期提供更廣泛的範圍。我當然明白現在我們的世界存在很多不確定性。但是，我想，再次，鑑於您的 EPS 指導，您必須對您的 SIG 卷的範圍有所了解。因此，也許您可以在高水平上為我們談一談，無論您是否預計今年的香煙銷量可能會恢復到歷史下降水平，考慮到艱難的競爭和更高消費稅的潛力，可能低於歷史下降水平增加？

Bonnie, and we'll take those in turn as well. On the EPS guidance, really, when you think about the EPS guidance, and I know you're including kind of the cigarette volume in that, look, we run a range of scenarios around that. We really look at what do we -- our base expectations, we have a very strong forecasting group. They forecast across the various categories. And then we run a range of scenarios around that, upside and downside. And we think about, okay, what do we feel confident about in providing a short range of EPS guidance for the year. And that's where we landed.

邦妮，我們也會輪流接受這些。關於 EPS 指導，真的，當你考慮 EPS 指導時，我知道你在其中包括了某種捲菸量，看，我們圍繞它運行了一系列場景。我們真的看看我們做了什麼——我們的基本預期，我們有一個非常強大的預測小組。他們預測各個類別。然後我們圍繞它運行一系列場景，包括上行和下行。我們想，好吧，我們有信心在今年提供短期每股收益指導。這就是我們降落的地方。

As far as cigarette volume, it wasn't the -- that we didn't have a forecast for volume. We feel very good about the way we go about forecasting volume. But to your point, there are a lot of uncertainties and a lot of fluidness in the environment, whether that's the consumer and how they're engaged with some of these noncombustible categories as they continue to grow or to the things we've highlighted in our remarks, whether it's unemployment or the fiscal stimulus if the government passes that. So there are a range of factors there. What we think really focusing on the consumer, and that's what we try to do and are trying to do is really give more information about how we're focused on the consumer and want to win where they go. And that's exactly why we implemented the portfolio strategy is really looking at the consumer is going to make different decisions, depending on where they're at in their journey and how do we really focus on the consumer and have the best products and best brands in each of those categories as they make decisions.

就捲菸量而言，我們沒有預測捲菸量。我們對預測交易量的方式感覺非常好。但就您而言，環境中存在很多不確定性和流動性，無論是消費者，以及隨著這些不可燃類別的持續增長，他們如何參與其中，還是我們在其中強調的事物我們的言論，無論是失業還是政府通過的財政刺激措施。所以那裡有一系列因素。我們認為真正關註消費者的事情，這就是我們試圖做和正在嘗試做的事情，是真正提供更多關於我們如何專注於消費者並希望贏得他們去的地方的信息。這正是我們實施投資組合戰略的原因，它真正著眼於消費者將做出不同的決定，這取決於他們在旅程中所處的位置以及我們如何真正關註消費者並擁有最好的產品和最好的品牌他們做出決定時的每一個類別。

Don't get me wrong. This cigarette, as I said in my remarks, really fuels. It's the engine for fueling the 10-year vision. But we think what you should hold us accountable to is our success in meeting the consumer where they're at regardless of what category they're in.

不要誤會我的意思。正如我在講話中所說，這支香煙真的很燃。它是推動 10 年願景的引擎。但我們認為，您應該讓我們負責的是，我們成功地滿足了他們所在的消費者，無論他們屬於哪個類別。

Okay. That's helpful. And then speaking of your 10-year vision, I did want to just maybe ask you to help us with that and maybe update us on where you're out with it. I know it's in the beginning, but are there any guideposts you could share with us that you're expecting to see for your business, maybe even the next 3 to 5 years. And I'm asking because, obviously, per your guidance and your comments, you're entering a period near-term here where you're stepping up spend to kind of accelerate this plan. So it would help us to understand maybe some targets, like for you to convert your business to the noncombustible products, as you mentioned, is it fair to assume 20%, 25%, for instance, in the next, I don't know, again, 3, 5 or 5-plus years?

好的。這很有幫助。然後談到你的 10 年願景，我確實想請你幫助我們，也許可以讓我們了解你的最新進展。我知道這只是一開始，但是您是否可以與我們分享您希望在您的業務中看到的任何指南，甚至可能是未來 3 到 5 年。我問這個問題是因為，顯然，根據你的指導和評論，你正在進入一個近期的時期，你正在加緊支出以加速這個計劃。因此，這可能有助於我們了解一些目標，例如讓您將業務轉變為不可燃產品，正如您所提到的，假設 20%、25% 是否公平，例如，在下一個，我不知道，又是 3 年、5 年還是 5 年以上？

And then as you execute on that vision, are you also open to or considering future M&A to even accelerate this further? Or should we just assume this will all be done organically? And then I do want to hear about how you're incentivizing your employees to execute.

然後，當您執行該願景時，您是否也願意或考慮未來的併購以進一步加速這一進程？還是我們應該假設這一切都會有機地完成？然後我確實想听聽您如何激勵員工執行。

Sure. Look, I'll think of a reverse order. As far as the employees, they have such passion, but you're right, incentivizing them in the right direction certainly directs that passion. We've shared that 10-year vision that we have and how we expect to progress through time with our employee base. They're passionate about it. They're excited to support that. And we think we have the right incentive program in place to warrant that excitement.

當然。看，我會想一個相反的順序。就員工而言，他們有這樣的熱情，但你是對的，在正確的方向上激勵他們肯定會引導這種熱情。我們已經與我們的員工群分享了我們擁有的 10 年願景以及我們期望如何隨著時間的推移而進步。他們對此充滿熱情。他們很高興支持這一點。我們認為我們有適當的激勵計劃來保證這種興奮。

As far as milestones, again, I won't go into a specific numerical value. Remember, from an overall objective, we're looking to balance strong growth -- EPS growth for investors and the associated cash involved with that but, at the same time, making investments over the long-term to advance our noncombustible portfolio. And so what we're really trying to do is have that balance. And so we're certainly going to share with you, through time, how we're making progress, but it's really about the journey of the consumer.

至於里程碑，我不會再談一個具體的數值。請記住，從總體目標來看，我們正在尋求平衡強勁的增長——投資者的每股收益增長和與之相關的相關現金，但同時進行長期投資以推進我們的不可燃投資組合。所以我們真正想做的是保持這種平衡。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們當然會與您分享我們是如何取得進展的，但這實際上是關於消費者的旅程。

So if you think about really driving awareness of the consumer for new categories, incenting trial, ultimately purchase and then, at the final stage, conversion to these new categories. That's the way we're thinking about the consumer journey. And we're really investing to get to as close to the consumer as we can because each consumer is going to be at a different point in that journey and make different decisions across the categories. And that's exactly the portfolio approach.

因此，如果您考慮真正提高消費者對新品類的認識，鼓勵試用，最終購買，然後在最後階段轉換到這些新品類。這就是我們思考消費者旅程的方式。而且我們確實在投資以盡可能接近消費者，因為每個消費者都將處於該旅程的不同階段，並在各個類別中做出不同的決定。這正是投資組合方法。

And different actions are taken, whether they're regulatory actions, whether they're consumers really enjoying the category is being able to be agile enough to not starve any category that's growing and make the appropriate investments there. So that's how we're thinking about the consumers' journey. And you'll see us share more through time of how we're progressing with those consumer journeys.

並且採取了不同的行動，無論是監管行動，他們是否是真正喜歡該類別的消費者，都能夠足夠靈活，不會讓任何正在增長的類別挨餓並在那裡進行適當的投資。這就是我們考慮消費者旅程的方式。隨著時間的推移，您會看到我們更多地分享我們如何在這些消費者旅程中取得進展。

Okay. Just maybe quickly on the M&A. Would you be open to that as -- and I guess I'm thinking about in the next years, if there's a way to just further accelerate that, whether you've developed it internally? Or would you be open to looking outside?

好的。可能很快就併購了。你會對此持開放態度嗎？我想我會在未來幾年考慮，如果有辦法進一步加速這一點，你是否已經在內部開發了它？還是你願意向外看？

Yes. We'll keep our eyes open for everything, but we're extremely excited about the portfolio of products that we have currently. And it's really a focus on execution. And to your point, that's exactly why we talked about the investments in our product development, is making sure that we're staying abreast with the consumer and really keeping pace and meeting their needs and desires.

是的。我們將密切關註一切，但我們對我們目前擁有的產品組合感到非常興奮。這真的是對執行的關注。就您而言，這正是我們談論產品開發投資的原因，確保我們與消費者保持同步，真正跟上並滿足他們的需求和願望。

Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Vivien Azer。

So I wanted to also switch base on combustibles, please. So if we're looking at wholesale inventories for both you and the industry, they remain elevated at year-end relative to where you guys closed out each of the last 2 years. I appreciate that some of that probably is just safety stock because of COVID. But how should we think about inventory levels as we head into 2021, please?

所以我也想換掉可燃物的基地，拜託。因此，如果我們正在查看您和整個行業的批發庫存，相對於你們過去 2 年每年關閉的庫存，它們在年底仍然處於較高水平。我很欣賞其中一些可能只是由於 COVID 的安全庫存。但是，當我們進入 2021 年時，我們應該如何考慮庫存水平呢？

Yes. Vivien, I think you nailed it. I think it was as wholesalers and retailers are making decisions around where they stood with the COVID-19 pandemic and what -- because in different parts across the U.S., the surges that are taking place and different state government decisions about shutdowns and the consumer mobility in the marketplace. And so I think, certainly, there was a slight level of increase over what you've seen in previous years as they took those things into consideration.

是的。薇薇安，我想你成功了。我認為這是因為批發商和零售商正在圍繞他們在 COVID-19 大流行中的立場以及什麼做出決定——因為在美國的不同地區，正在發生的激增以及州政府關於停工和消費者流動性的不同決定在市場上。所以我認為，當他們考慮到這些因素時，肯定會比你在前幾年看到的略有增加。

Certainly, as we've always said, through time, those wholesale inventories tend to balance out. And so we'll see as we progress through the COVID-19 pandemic and the vaccination rollout how wholesalers and retailers decide to what levels are appropriate for them.

當然，正如我們一直說的那樣，隨著時間的推移，這些批發庫存往往會趨於平衡。因此，隨著我們在 COVID-19 大流行和疫苗接種推廣中取得進展，我們將看到批發商和零售商如何決定適合他們的水平。

Understood. And my follow-up question is on oral tobacco. So (inaudible) suggested industry volume growth in the quarter and the year. I was wondering whether you could unpack that at all and provide some color on what -- how much of that growth came from modern oral so we could have a better sense of what's happening with underlying MST.

明白了。我的後續問題是關於口服煙草的。因此（聽不清）建議該季度和當年的行業銷量增長。我想知道您是否可以完全解開它並提供一些顏色 - 這種增長中有多少來自現代口語，以便我們可以更好地了解潛在的 MST 正在發生什麼。

Yes. I would say, look, both pieces of that category did grow during the year. But certainly, the vast majority was the onset of the novel oral products, whether it be on! or Zyn or other products in that space. And so that's the vast majority, but both segments of that category did grow. So we feel good about the offerings we have in brands in the traditional MST. And Copenhagen continues to lead that category, and we feel great about its position.

是的。我會說，看，該類別的兩個部分都在這一年中增長。但可以肯定的是，絕大多數是新型口服產品的發作，無論是在！或 Zyn 或該領域的其他產品。所以這是絕大多數，但該類別的兩個部分都確實增長了。因此，我們對我們在傳統 MST 品牌中提供的產品感覺良好。哥本哈根繼續在該類別中處於領先地位，我們對其地位感到非常滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

Could you just talk a little bit about what you're seeing with IQOS and what engagement is really proving the most effective, whether it's in the stores or digital or mail or anything else? And how does the IQOS 3 launch impact any of your marketing approach?

您能否簡單談談您在 IQOS 上看到的情況以及真正被證明是最有效的參與方式，無論是在商店、數字、郵件還是其他任何方式？ IQOS 3 的發布對您的營銷方式有何影響？

Yes. It's a great question, Michael. Look, we're very excited about what we've experienced in the first 3 lead markets. From a standpoint of the exact way to engage with the consumer, what's most important we found is the consumer education, that they understand what the IQOS device delivers and the Marlboro HeatSticks, what flavor expectations they can have and then really how to use the device.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，邁克爾。看，我們對我們在前 3 個領先市場的經歷感到非常興奮。從與消費者互動的確切方式的角度來看，我們發現最重要的是消費者教育，讓他們了解 IQOS 設備和萬寶路 HeatSticks 提供什麼，他們可以有什麼樣的口味期望，然後真正如何使用該設備.

So from that standpoint, we're trying many things. Because remember, we launched in densely populated areas. So you have one strategy there. But then as you move from those densely populated areas out, that's exactly why we were testing the device sales in convenience stores to really meet consumers where they are. And as you get to more rural locations, really having an outlet to engage with the consumer.

所以從這個角度來看，我們正在嘗試很多事情。因為請記住，我們是在人口稠密的地區推出的。所以你有一個策略。但是，當您從那些人口稠密的地區移出時，這正是我們在便利店測試設備銷售以真正滿足消費者所在位置的原因。當你到達更多的農村地區時，真的有一個與消費者互動的渠道。

We actually use all of those measures that you mentioned, whether it's direct mail, whether it's retail stores, the devices in the convenience stores, whether it's corners in various places or whether it's the mobile units. And certainly, in Charlotte, we have used the mobile units to a larger extent because what we found is as you meet a certain capacity, you can actually move those mobile devices -- mobile units from one location to another and really maximize the number of consumers you're engaging with.

你提到的這些措施，我們實際上都使用了，無論是直郵，無論是零售店，還是便利店的設備，無論是各個角落的角落，還是移動設備。當然，在夏洛特，我們在更大程度上使用了移動設備，因為我們發現當你滿足一定的容量時，你實際上可以將這些移動設備——移動設備從一個位置移動到另一個位置，並真正最大限度地增加移動設備的數量。與您互動的消費者。

Now, certainly, in the COVID world, we had some challenges there because there's a lot of engagement 101 with the consumer, but our team implemented digital tools. We talked about the mobile chat capability that they installed. And so we're excited to continue to expand, and we'll have more to say on that.

現在，當然，在 COVID 世界中，我們在那裡遇到了一些挑戰，因為與消費者有很多接觸 101，但我們的團隊實施了數字工具。我們談到了他們安裝的移動聊天功能。因此，我們很高興能夠繼續擴展，我們將對此有更多話要說。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then could you just give your latest thinking on Cronos? And would you expect to take full control if federal law were to change?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後你能談談你對 Cronos 的最新想法嗎？如果聯邦法律發生變化，你會期望完全控制嗎？

Yes. I'm not going to speak to taking control or any M&A activities. Certainly, we think Cronos as -- is positioning themselves well to take a role in the U.S. if it becomes federally legal. I think it's important to step back and really state what we believe. We believe it should be legal at the federal level, but it's got to have the right regulatory framework. So if you think about that total framework, what it should address is it should address underage use. It should establish industry product standards, and that includes safety standards. It really needs to be guided by the science so that from a standpoint of everything should be science driven. And it really should deal with the social justice issues that are involved in that space. And so we believe it should be federalized at legal level. We support that. We're engaged with that, but it's got to have the right comprehensive framework surrounding it.

是的。我不會談論控制權或任何併購活動。當然，我們認為 Cronos 將自己定位良好，如果它成為聯邦法律，可以在美國發揮作用。我認為退後一步並真正說明我們的信念很重要。我們認為它在聯邦層面應該是合法的，但它必須有正確的監管框架。因此，如果您考慮整個框架，它應該解決的是它應該解決未成年人的使用問題。它應該建立行業產品標準，其中包括安全標準。它確實需要以科學為指導，以便從任何事情的角度來看都應該以科學為導向。它確實應該處理該領域所涉及的社會正義問題。因此，我們認為它應該在法律層面實現聯邦化。我們支持這一點。我們參與其中，但它必須有正確的綜合框架圍繞它。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

I just had a question for you, first of all, on -- you've had an elevated rate of price realization in the cigarette business, in particular. And as we enter the year, certainly as you lap increases that occurred in 2020 as well as presuming you take increases in 2021 beyond what you've done already, it would seem to provide the backdrop for an even stronger rate of profit growth. So I want to understand, without getting into numbers, I realize that's going to be hard to get into, but just understand the concept of the desire behind the higher level of pricing and what you can do with that? So is that -- is there a heavier rate of investment in the business? Is this going to help fund more of your expansion of on! and the noncombustible sort of part of the 10-year vision. I'm just trying to understand the pricing strategy as it's evolving here.

我剛剛有一個問題要問你，首先，你在捲菸行業的價格實現率提高了，特別是。隨著我們進入這一年，當然，當你在 2020 年發生的單圈增長以及假設你在 2021 年的增長超過你已經完成的工作時，這似乎為更強勁的利潤增長率提供了背景。所以我想了解，不涉及數字，我意識到這將很難進入，但只需了解更高水平定價背後的願望概念，以及你能用它做什麼？那麼，是否有更高的業務投資率？這是否有助於為您的擴展提供更多資金！以及 10 年願景中不可燃的部分。我只是想了解定價策略，因為它正在這裡發展。

Yes. I appreciate the question. I'll be careful, Chris, as you mentioned, not to get into the future pricing strategies. Look, we recognize that pricing is an important part of the algorithm. I would remind you that the strategy for the combustible segment, both cigarettes and cigars is to maximize profitability over the long-term while balancing investments in Marlboro and the funding the growth of our noncombustible portfolio. So certainly, profitability in the traditional tobacco space is what we're using to invest in the future in these noncombustible product arena.

是的。我很欣賞這個問題。正如你所提到的，克里斯，我會小心，不要進入未來的定價策略。看，我們認識到定價是算法的重要組成部分。我想提醒您，捲菸和雪茄等可燃領域的戰略是在長期實現盈利能力最大化的同時，平衡對萬寶路的投資和為我們的不可燃產品組合的增長提供資金。因此，可以肯定的是，傳統煙草領域的盈利能力是我們用來投資這些不可燃產品領域的未來。

And so certainly, we look at that from a standpoint of -- when you look at pricing, a couple of the factors that we think about pricing as we move forward is really, where are our consumers on an economic standpoint. What are they feeling? How do they feel? What are they thinking about? It's the strength of our brands, how do we think about our brands and the strength in the consumer's mind. And then certainly, business performance and objectives factor into that.

所以當然，我們從一個角度來看 - 當你看定價時，我們在前進時考慮定價的幾個因素實際上是，從經濟角度來看，我們的消費者在哪裡。他們有什麼感覺？他們感覺怎麼樣？他們在想什麼？這是我們品牌的實力，我們如何看待我們的品牌以及消費者心目中的實力。當然，業務績效和目標也是其中的一個因素。

I think when you look at price realization over the past couple of years, I think it's important to remember that's not all list price. It also has the price efficiencies we've been able to garner from the advanced analytics that we put in place. And so with the amount of data that we get in and the advanced analytics that we've invested in, I think you're seeing the benefit in price realization of being more efficient, but just as effective, if not, more in the marketplace with the promotional spend that we have. So it's a combination of both, and we are extremely excited about what our advanced analytics team has been able to accomplish.

我認為當您查看過去幾年的價格實現時，我認為重要的是要記住這並不是所有的標價。它還具有我們能夠從我們實施的高級分析中獲得的價格效率。因此，隨著我們獲得的數據量和我們投資的高級分析，我認為你看到了價格實現的好處，即更高效，但同樣有效，如果不是，在市場上更有效與我們擁有的促銷支出。所以這是兩者的結合，我們對我們的高級分析團隊能夠完成的工作感到非常興奮。

Okay. I had 1 other question. That's -- and I hope it's not too general, but this is the -- I'm just curious as I look at like the cross-category movement, which was a modest factor throughout 2020. Is that more difficult to forecast in 2021? Again, I hope that's not having it meaning that. But I guess what I'm getting to is this a year where your categories such as modern oral or heated tobacco, especially as they grow and become larger, could have a larger effect on the cigarette category, as an example. So is this a year where you see the potential for that transition or acceleration in some of those categories that could further influence cigarette volumes in 2021? Or is it just too soon for that?

好的。我還有 1 個問題。那是——我希望它不是太籠統，但這就是——我只是好奇，因為我看著跨類別運動，這是整個 2020 年的一個適度因素。在 2021 年更難預測嗎？再說一次，我希望這不是那個意思。但我想我會在這一年中，例如現代口腔或加熱煙草等類別，特別是隨著它們的增長和變大，可能會對捲菸類別產生更大的影響。那麼，在這一年，您是否看到了某些類別的轉變或加速的潛力，這些類別可能會進一步影響 2021 年的捲煙銷量？或者現在還為時過早？

Yes. I don't think it's too soon for that, Chris. I'm hesitant to try to get much more on cigarette volume guidance. I think you're exactly right, though. The success of those categories and our success in them will certainly impact the cigarette category. It's in line with our vision. But when you step back, Chris, that's exactly why we really went with this portfolio approach of products. It's about meeting the consumer where they're at. Each consumer is going to make different decisions. And that's that objective we have of balancing strong growth in the associated cash for our investors and investing in these categories. As we progress through the year and we see a consumer following of 1 of these categories, we want to make sure we're not starting it for investments. So it provides us the flexibility we need to -- we feel to make the right decisions as we progress through the year.

是的。克里斯，我認為這還為時過早。我對嘗試獲得更多關於捲菸量的指導猶豫不決。不過，我認為你是完全正確的。這些類別的成功以及我們在其中的成功肯定會影響捲菸類別。這符合我們的願景。但是當你退後一步時，克里斯，這正是我們真正採用這種產品組合方法的原因。這是關於與他們所在的消費者會面。每個消費者都會做出不同的決定。這就是我們平衡投資者相關現金的強勁增長和投資這些類別的目標。隨著我們這一年的進展，我們看到消費者關注其中一個類別，我們希望確保我們不是為了投資而開始的。所以它為我們提供了我們需要的靈活性——我們覺得隨著一年的進展，我們會做出正確的決定。

Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Owen Bennett。

Just a quick one for me on -- you note the increase in the R&D spend around noncombustibles. I'm assuming this obviously can't be around vapor given and the agreement with JUUL. So I was just wondering what this R&D centers on. Is it your own heated product? Is it advancements in modern oral? Is it something else entirely?

對我來說只是一個快速的 - 你注意到圍繞不可燃物的研發支出的增加。我假設這顯然不能圍繞給定的蒸汽和與 JUUL 的協議。所以我只是想知道這個研發中心是什麼。它是您自己的加熱產品嗎？是現代口語的進步嗎？完全是另外一回事嗎？

Yes. You're exactly right, Owen. You're exactly right from an e-vapor standpoint. With the agreement we have in JUUL, we're not looking at product development in that space. But it really is staying -- the key focus is on the consumer and staying where the consumer is going. And so it's across these categories that are growing is where we want to have product development, to make sure we're keeping pace with the consumers' needs and desires. And so I think any CPG having a strong product development is important. And that's why we think it's important for us to invest in that area.

是的。你完全正確，歐文。從電子蒸汽的角度來看，您是完全正確的。根據我們在 JUUL 中的協議，我們不會考慮在該領域進行產品開發。但它確實是停留 - 關鍵焦點是消費者並停留在消費者要去的地方。因此，在這些不斷增長的類別中，我們希望進行產品開發，以確保我們跟上消費者的需求和願望。因此，我認為任何具有強大產品開發能力的 CPG 都很重要。這就是為什麼我們認為投資該領域對我們很重要。

Okay. And would that be, I mean, even kind of potentially looking at developing your own heated products? Is that a possibility in the future?

好的。那會是，我的意思是，甚至可能會考慮開發自己的加熱產品嗎？未來有這種可能嗎？

Yes. I'm not going to get into specifics. Know that it's in the noncombustible space is where we're investing. And it's really about looking how the investor is, what they're desiring and what needs are unmet and developing against that. And so that's about as far as I'm going to go today. I think as we make progress in that space and we feel excited about the progress we made thus far, we'll share more when it's appropriate.

是的。我不打算進入細節。知道它在不可燃空間是我們投資的地方。這實際上是要了解投資者的狀況，他們的願望以及未滿足的需求以及與之相適應的發展。這就是我今天要講的內容。我認為隨著我們在該領域取得進展並且我們對迄今為止取得的進展感到興奮，我們將在適當的時候分享更多信息。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

So Billy, when you -- I guess when you step back and you sum up the elective investments that you seem to be prioritizing in '21, both towards the vision of a noncombustible future and the new product development but also just the enhanced analytics around consumer insights and revenue growth management, is there a related dimension, maybe even just relative to similar investments in prior years, whether you are -- whether we should be viewing '21 as a year of acceleration, investment acceleration on those fronts? Or is it -- would you frame it more as a steady state glide path if you drew a line to the last few years?

所以比利，當你——我想當你退後一步，總結一下你在 21 年似乎優先考慮的選擇性投資時，既是為了實現不可燃的未來和新產品開發的願景，也是為了增強分析消費者洞察和收入增長管理，是否存在相關維度，甚至可能只是相對於前幾年的類似投資，您是否——我們是否應該將 21 年視為加速的一年，這些方面的投資加速？或者是——如果你畫一條線到過去幾年，你會把它更多地描繪成一個穩定的滑行路徑嗎？

Yes. I hate to characterize it either way, Steve. We feel like we've made the appropriate investments. Certainly, it stepped up. But I wouldn't say that we're just gliding along. We're going to move where the consumer moves. And so it's that keen focus on the consumer. It's about driving the portfolio that we have. And so if you think about investments around on! and in the heated tobacco space with IQOS and Mobile Heatsticks, it's about driving investments there, driving awareness, getting the distribution we desire at retail and having it in the consumers' consideration.

是的。我討厭用任何一種方式來描述它，史蒂夫。我們覺得我們已經進行了適當的投資。果然，它一步步走高了。但我不會說我們只是在滑行。我們將移動到消費者移動的地方。所以它是對消費者的敏銳關注。這是關於推動我們擁有的投資組合。因此，如果您考慮圍繞投資進行投資！在帶有 IQOS 和 Mobile Heatsticks 的加熱煙草領域，它是關於推動投資、提高意識、在零售中獲得我們想要的分銷並將其納入消費者的考慮範圍。

When you go to the next category about this digital platform, it's really about thinking about how do you -- we make great strides in analytics, and I think you've seen the benefit in the performance of our businesses. Now it's about those insights being really focused on the consumer and how do we get as close to the consumer and understand where each consumer is at on their journey to conversion for whatever category they're choosing and making sure that we're able to communicate and keep pace with them in that journey.

當你進入關於這個數字平台的下一個類別時，它實際上是在思考你是如何做到的——我們在分析方面取得了長足的進步，我認為你已經看到了我們業務表現的好處。現在是關於那些真正關註消費者的見解，以及我們如何盡可能接近消費者並了解每個消費者在他們選擇的任何類別的轉換過程中所處的位置，並確保我們能夠溝通並在旅途中與他們保持同步。

And then the final one is as we've seen in all of these categories, continued development around the product space is extremely important to the consumer and investing there to make sure we're keeping pace with the consumer. So that's how we're thinking about it. We're extremely excited about the portfolio we have. It's about getting it there to have it in the consumer consideration set, meeting them where they're at and communicating with them along the journey and then making sure that our products keep pace with the consumers' future wants and desires.

最後一個，正如我們在所有這些類別中所看到的那樣，圍繞產品領域的持續發展對消費者而言極為重要，並在那裡進行投資以確保我們與消費者保持同步。所以我們就是這麼想的。我們對我們擁有的產品組合感到非常興奮。這是為了將其納入消費者考慮範圍，在他們所處的地方與他們會面並在整個旅程中與他們溝通，然後確保我們的產品跟上消費者未來的需求和願望。

Okay. Okay. If I could just maybe -- I think this is probably for Sal. Just a couple of cleanups. Just as I think about the 2020 cost base, clearly, there were some incremental COVID related costs in that base and yet also some COVID related savings. As you think about the move into '21, is there a way to net out those dynamics in your base case?

好的。好的。如果可以的話-- 我想這可能是給Sal 的。只需進行幾次清理。正如我想到 2020 年的成本基礎一樣，顯然，在該基礎上增加了一些與 COVID 相關的成本，但也有一些與 COVID 相關的節省。當您考慮進入 21 年時，有沒有辦法在您的基本案例中消除這些動態？

And then also, any -- if there's any way, any advice you might have for us on the outside as to how we should think about the earnings impact as we go forward just as you continue to wind down the PMCC business, just how we should think about that flowing through the P&L?

然後還有任何 - 如果有任何方法，你可能對我們有任何建議，關於我們應該如何考慮我們前進時的收益影響，就像你繼續結束 PMCC 業務一樣，我們如何應該考慮通過損益表流動嗎？

Sure, Steve. As far as the cost base, in 2020, remember, we were lapping the cost reduction program that we implemented in 2019. And of course, cost management remains top of mind for us. When you think about 2021, we think we have the right structure for the business and the right size of the business. It's really about reallocating our spending, right? So we're moving spending from the combustible business as we invest into the noncombustible business. And our employees do a terrific job of thinking about efficiencies on their infrastructure and their processes and how that frees up resources to reinvest in our 10-year vision and in our noncombustible platform. So the right-sized organization, we feel really good about it. We have terrific employees. They've done a wonderful job of continuing to provide productivity during the pandemic. And so that's how I would think about 2021 costs.

當然，史蒂夫。就成本基礎而言，請記住，我們在 2019 年實施了 2019 年實施的成本削減計劃。當然，成本管理仍然是我們的首要任務。當您考慮 2021 年時，我們認為我們擁有適合業務的結構和合適的業務規模。這真的是關於重新分配我們的支出，對吧？因此，當我們投資於不可燃業務時，我們正在將支出從可燃業務轉移。我們的員工在思考他們的基礎設施和流程的效率以及如何釋放資源以重新投資於我們的 10 年願景和我們的不可燃平台方面做得非常出色。因此，規模合適的組織，我們對此感覺非常好。我們有很棒的員工。他們在大流行期間繼續提供生產力方面做得非常出色。這就是我對 2021 年成本的看法。

As far as PMCC, the folks at PMCC over the last many years have done a wonderful job of really unwinding that business. And it has been lumpy at times. We're selling assets. When you think about '21 and '22, we've got the net finance assets at a low level. It's significantly lower than when we began to wind down that business. And really, it's about rents received and the sale of assets. So there might be some lumpiness in there, but we feel good about the portfolio that remains and the ability to unwind the business. And we expect to be completely wound down in 2022.

就 PMCC 而言，PMCC 的人們在過去的許多年裡在真正解除該業務方面做得非常出色。而且它有時是塊狀的。我們正在出售資產。當您考慮 21 年和 22 年時，我們的淨金融資產處於較低水平。這比我們開始關閉該業務時要低得多。實際上，這與收到的租金和資產出售有關。因此，其中可能存在一些混亂，但我們對剩餘的投資組合和解除業務的能力感到滿意。我們預計將在 2022 年完全結束。

Your next question comes from Gaurav Jain of Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

I have 3 questions. So first is on the EPS guide for next year, which is 3% to 6%. And in that, there is some component of share repurchases, about 1% to 2%. So your pretax PBT, your PBT guidance for 2% to 5% growth. So how are you incorporating the ABI equity income in that? Because that fell off quite a lot this year. And if I just look at consensus numbers, they asked for a very steep bounce back in ABI net income. So could you just help us understand that?

我有 3 個問題。首先是明年的每股收益指南，即 3% 到 6%。其中，有一些股票回購的成分，大約在 1% 到 2% 之間。所以你的稅前 PBT，你的 PBT 指導為 2% 到 5% 的增長。那麼，您如何將 ABI 股權收入納入其中？因為今年下降了很多。如果我只看共識數字，他們要求 ABI 淨收入大幅反彈。那麼你能不能幫助我們理解這一點？

Yes. Gaurav, I want to be careful not to get into the particular components. There is always puts and takes across the P&L. I think what's most important is, as I stated earlier, is this objective to have strong growth but then make appropriate investments in these -- or in our noncombustible portfolio. And so as you think about as we progress through the year, if 1 area or another proposed well, well then that affords us as we're progressing through the year to make changes if necessary, but it also affords us the opportunity to invest in areas that we're seeing the consumer gravitate towards so that we're not starving any particular category for investments.

是的。 Gaurav，我要小心不要進入特定的組件。損益表中總是存在看跌期權。正如我之前所說，我認為最重要的是，這個目標是實現強勁增長，然後對這些——或我們的不可燃投資組合進行適當的投資。因此，當您考慮我們在這一年中的進展時，如果某個領域或另一個領域提出了良好的建議，那麼這使我們在這一年的進展中可以在必要時進行更改，但它也為我們提供了投資的機會我們看到消費者被吸引到的領域，這樣我們就不會因為任何特定類別的投資而挨餓。

Sure. That's helpful. Now second is on the price increases in the U.S. industry recently. So your primary competitor is now pricing before you, and it doesn't seem you are following all the price increases in all the states. But does -- I mean, is there a risk that the pricing balance in the industry could deteriorate as you go forward?

當然。這很有幫助。其次是最近美國工業的價格上漲。因此，您的主要競爭對手現在在您之前定價，而且您似乎並未關注所有州的所有價格上漲。但是——我的意思是，隨著你的發展，行業的定價平衡是否存在惡化的風險？

Yes, Gaurav. To be quite honest, we really don't pay attention to who goes first, who goes second or what order. Really, and I mentioned this earlier, that the major factors that go into our pricing considerations, nothing from a competitive standpoint. It's really about how our consumers are from their economic position. What are they feeling? How are they positioned? And how do they feel about their future prospects?

是的，高拉夫。老實說，我們真的不關心誰先，誰後，什麼順序。真的，我之前提到過，從競爭的角度來看，我們定價考慮的主要因素是什麼。這實際上是關於我們的消費者如何從他們的經濟地位。他們有什麼感覺？他們是如何定位的？他們如何看待自己的未來前景？

The next is the strength of our brands. How do we feel about our brands in the marketplace and in the consumer's mind. And then it is around business performance and objectives. Those are the 3 factors we think about when we build our plan around pricing. And that's what drives our pricing decisions.

其次是我們品牌的實力。我們如何看待我們在市場和消費者心目中的品牌。然後是圍繞業務績效和目標。這些是我們在圍繞定價制定計劃時考慮的三個因素。這就是推動我們定價決策的原因。

Sure. That is very helpful. And my last question is just on this IQOS packaging, which you shared on Slide 15. So I don't see any of the MRTP risk messages that were authorized by the FDA. So would there be a new packaging, which will incorporate that? And is Philip Morris involved in the feed design? Or is this under your sort of consideration that you could put whatever branding and packaging that you would like?

當然。這很有幫助。我的最後一個問題是關於你在幻燈片 15 上分享的這個 IQOS 包裝。所以我沒有看到 FDA 授權的任何 MRTP 風險信息。那麼會有一個新的包裝，其中將包含它？菲利普莫里斯是否參與了飼料設計？或者您是否考慮過可以放置您想要的任何品牌和包裝？

Yes. Certainly, we collaborate with PMI, but those decisions are ours. And so from that standpoint, we wanted to make sure we had the flexibility as we move forward. We will be communicating the MRTP with consumers, and we want to do it in the most effective way that has an impact on them. And so we'll be rolling that out, and we've started that process in some of our markets. And what we saw in research is it does bear into the consumer's mind of deciding to engage with the concept of IQOS and the Marlboro Heatsticks as well as their desire to stick with it. And so we're looking forward to bringing that MRTP, and we'll use the avenues that we think are most advantageous for us to get that message across to the consumer.

是的。當然，我們與 PMI 合作，但這些決定是我們的。因此，從這個角度來看，我們希望確保我們在前進的過程中具有靈活性。我們將與消費者溝通 MRTP，我們希望以對他們產生影響的最有效的方式進行。所以我們將推出它，我們已經在我們的一些市場開始了這個過程。我們在研究中看到的是，它確實體現了消費者決定參與 IQOS 和萬寶路加熱棒的概念以及他們堅持使用它的願望。因此，我們期待推出 MRTP，我們將使用我們認為對我們最有利的途徑將該信息傳達給消費者。

Laurie, before we go to the next question, we're aware that we've had a technical issue on the webcast and just want to make sure that investors listening on the webcast are aware that we're going to work to get our transcript and the replay up very quickly following the call. So we appreciate your patience on that.

Laurie，在我們進入下一個問題之前，我們知道我們在網絡廣播中遇到了技術問題，只是想確保收聽網絡廣播的投資者知道我們將努力獲取我們的成績單並在通話後很快重播。因此，我們感謝您對此的耐心等待。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Rampton of UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的羅伯特·蘭普頓。

Three questions from me. The first is, so looking at -- over the quarter, I mean, for the first time, it seems like the lowest effective price and the net packed price moved in opposite directions. Curious to understand what drove this? Does it mean you're broadening the Marlboro price ladder? And if so, interested to hear why now?

我的三個問題。第一個是，所以看 - 在本季度，我的意思是，第一次，似乎最低有效價格和淨包裝價格朝相反的方向移動。想知道是什麼推動了這一切？這是否意味著您正在擴大萬寶路的價格階梯？如果是這樣，現在有興趣聽聽為什麼嗎？

Yes. I think when you think about our pricing decisions, we -- as I mentioned earlier, the things that factor into our pricing decisions. And then -- and that price realization is really around the list price increases we take and the efficiencies garnered across our promotional spend. I think when you look at the rest of the pricing decisions, they're independent of us as manufacturers make those pricing decisions. And then, of course, you have state excise taxes that get added to that and then how retailers themselves are competitive in the marketplace. So there are a lot of factors that go into that. And we feel good about where we're at.

是的。我認為，當您考慮我們的定價決策時，我們 - 正如我之前提到的，是影響我們定價決策的因素。然後 - 價格實現實際上是圍繞我們採取的標價上漲以及通過我們的促銷支出獲得的效率。我認為，當您查看其他定價決策時，它們獨立於我們，因為製造商會做出這些定價決策。然後，當然，你有州消費稅被添加到其中，然後零售商本身如何在市場上具有競爭力。所以這裡面有很多因素。我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。

Okay. Cool. The second question. So in your -- in the Annex, you suggest that macro factors were a 4% tailwind to industry volumes for 2020, which you said was primarily driven by stay at home. In the event stay at home ends, I'm just trying to get an understanding of how that evolves. Does it go to minus 4% or 0? I mean, I'm not looking for a guide here. I'm just trying to better understand what you think the sensitivities are around the big uncertainties that you flagged, if you could -- anything you can share here. Maybe the experience in given states would be very helpful.

好的。涼爽的。第二個問題。因此，在您的附件中，您建議宏觀因素對 2020 年的行業銷量有 4% 的順風，您說這主要是由呆在家裡推動的。如果待在家裡結束，我只是想了解它是如何演變的。它是負 4% 還是 0？我的意思是，我不是在這裡尋找指南。我只是想更好地了解您認為圍繞您標記的重大不確定性的敏感性，如果可以的話 - 您可以在這里分享的任何內容。也許給定州的經驗會很有幫助。

Sure. And so really, what we think drove that was exactly what you mentioned, and we had highlighted, which was stay-at-home practices, which consumers themselves face less social friction. And also -- they also were benefiting from more discretionary income related to those stay-at-home practices. So less discretionary, whether it be movie tickets or going out to eat or even gas. And so as we progress through the year, as we see consumers respond to how they -- their behavior is related to how comfortable they feel returning to some of those discretionary other items or even they decided to go fully back to work versus work remotely, it's something that we'll be monitoring.

當然。所以說真的，我們認為推動這一切的正是你提到的，我們已經強調了，那就是呆在家裡的做法，消費者自己面臨的社會摩擦更少。而且 - 他們還受益於與那些留在家裡的做法相關的更多可自由支配的收入。所以少了點自由裁量權，不管是電影票還是出去吃飯甚至加油。因此，隨著我們這一年的進展，當我們看到消費者對他們的反應時——他們的行為與他們對返回某些可自由支配的其他物品的感覺有多舒服有關，甚至他們決定完全重返工作崗位而不是遠程工作，我們將對此進行監控。

And whether the consumer decides to adapt their life a bit to those changes or whether they go back to, I'll call it, a completely normal state pre-COVID, and so that's something that we'll be monitoring. But certainly, in our guidance, we ran a range of scenarios and feel comfortable that we have levers across the business to be able to respond to that, regardless of whether those scenarios occur.

消費者是否決定讓他們的生活適應這些變化，或者他們是否回到我稱之為 COVID 之前的完全正常狀態，因此我們將對此進行監控。但可以肯定的是，在我們的指導中，我們運行了一系列場景，並且對我們在整個業務中擁有能夠對此做出響應的槓桿感到滿意，無論這些場景是否發生。

Okay. And then sorry, my final question, just on heated tobacco. Any chance you can give us an update on the tax reductions you've secured in terms of number of states and the magnitude?

好的。然後對不起，我的最後一個問題，只是關於加熱的煙草。您是否有機會向我們提供有關您在州數量和幅度方面獲得的減稅的最新信息？

Yes. So our government affairs team has been able to secure that reduction in 6 states. And then, of course, there's a slight definition change in the State of Virginia. So if you count that as a reduction, it would be 7 states, but 6 that are part of, if you will, want to receive designation from the FDA, a step down taxation.

是的。因此，我們的政府事務團隊已經能夠在 6 個州確保減少。然後，當然，弗吉尼亞州的定義略有變化。因此，如果您將其算作減少，那麼將有 7 個州，但如果您願意，有 6 個州希望獲得 FDA 的指定，即減稅。

And sorry, just a quick follow-up on that. Is that -- because I understand there was a kind of tiering element there with some saying 25 to 50, depending on what type of MRTP you get. Is that still a fair way of thinking about it?

抱歉，只是對此進行快速跟進。是嗎- 因為我知道那裡有一種分層元素，有人說25 到50，這取決於您獲得的MRTP 類型。這仍然是一種公平的思考方式嗎？

It is. It varies by state, but that is a fair way to think about it.

這是。它因州而異，但這是一種公平的思考方式。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗的亞當·斯皮爾曼（Adam Spielman）。

Just a handful of questions, really. So just to make sure I understand what you said, the first one is talking about Slide 10 of the presentation. That's the one where you have -- it's about on! and the heading is building on! momentum. And I just want to make sure I've understood it. I think the left-hand side is saying there are more stores where you sell on! On the right-hand side, it's saying within stores, you have a higher market share. So I should -- the question is, am I right to believe this is sort of double effect. So obviously you've got a high percentage in more stores, and therefore, it's a sort of multiplicative effect. And overall, it looks better than you ever 2 charts alone. Is that the right way of thinking about that slide?

只是幾個問題，真的。所以為了確保我理解你所說的，第一個是在談論演示文稿的幻燈片 10。這就是你所擁有的——它即將開啟！標題正在建立！勢頭。我只是想確保我已經理解它。我想左邊是說有更多的商店在那裡你賣！在右側，它表示在商店內，您擁有更高的市場份額。所以我應該——問題是，我相信這是一種雙重效果是否正確。所以很明顯，你在更多商店中的比例很高，因此，這是一種乘法效應。總體而言，它看起來比單獨的 2 個圖表要好。這是思考那張幻燈片的正確方式嗎？

That is the right way of thinking about it, Adam. What we show on the left side is cumulative distribution in stores. And then on the right side, what we're showing is the quarterly share in those stores with distribution. So yes.

這是正確的思考方式，亞當。我們在左側顯示的是商店中的累積分佈。然後在右側，我們展示的是那些有分銷的商店的季度份額。所以是的。

Fine. And then on the slide -- I forget what number it is. There's a slide on the sort of extra pack you give that shows oral tobacco industry volume growth estimates. And in Q4, it's 6% versus Q3, it was 7%. So it's grown and then shrunk again. And I was just wondering if there's any explanation about why it's slightly lower in Q4.

美好的。然後在幻燈片上——我忘記了它是什麼數字。您提供的那種額外包裝上有一張幻燈片，顯示了口腔煙草行業的銷量增長估計。第四季度為 6%，而第三季度為 7%。所以它長大了，然後又縮小了。我只是想知道是否有任何解釋為什麼它在第四季度略低。

Yes. I think you'll see fluctuations through time, Adam. Nothing grows in a straight line, and so you're going to have distribution efforts that will accelerate that in periods of time. And then you'll have, as distribution levels out in some areas, you'll have fluctuations. I think we try to provide this. But if you think of this more as a line through time is the better way to think about continued distribution and growth in oral. I think it shows the desire of the consumer to find a noncombustible product that satisfies them. And as they move to those, you're going to see, through time, growth in these categories.

是的。我想你會看到時間的波動，亞當。沒有什麼是直線增長的，因此您將在一段時間內進行分發工作以加速這一過程。然後，隨著某些地區的分佈趨於平穩，您會遇到波動。我想我們試圖提供這個。但是，如果您將其更多地視為時間線，則更好地考慮口頭的持續分佈和增長。我認為這表明消費者渴望找到一種滿足他們需求的不燃產品。隨著他們轉向這些，隨著時間的推移，你會看到這些類別的增長。

And fine. And just a final quick clarification question. I think Sal said, I just want to make sure I've got this right, that although there is clearly an incremental investment in 2021 in noncombustibles, we should think about this mainly as a reallocation from expense that would have been spent on combustibles as, for example, some of the sales force transition across to spend more time.

很好。最後一個快速澄清的問題。我認為 Sal 說過，我只是想確保我做對了，儘管 2021 年對不可燃物的投資顯然會增加，但我們應該主要將其視為對可燃物支出的重新分配，因為例如，一些銷售人員跨過過渡要花更多的時間。

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Adam, I would -- let me clarify for you. We are increasing some of our investments in our noncombustible. Some of that will be offset through reallocation, but I don't want you to take away from my comments that it's 100% funded by reallocation. So it helps us be more efficient across the full P&L. But as we stated in our earlier remarks, we are increasing our investment to achieve our 10-year vision.

亞當，我會 - 讓我為你澄清一下。我們正在增加對不可燃材料的一些投資。其中一些將通過重新分配來抵消，但我不希望你從我的評論中拿走它 100% 由重新分配資助。因此，它有助於我們在整個損益表中更有效率。但正如我們在之前的評論中所說，我們正在增加投資以實現我們的 10 年願景。

Okay. And if I could just -- that was very helpful. Very clear. Can I just come back to clarify an answer that I didn't really understand before. I know you're not going to give me the precise number of dollars and cents. But is the -- if I think about the increments in investment in 2021, is that roughly the same as the increment of investment in 2020 in the noncombustible area? Or is it more or less?

好的。如果我可以 - 那非常有幫助。非常清楚。我可以回來澄清一個我以前並不真正理解的答案。我知道你不會給我確切的美元和美分數量。但是，如果我考慮到 2021 年的投資增量，這是否與 2020 年不可燃領域的投資增量大致相同？還是更多或更少？

In other words, is the investment accelerating or moving at the same speed? Or are we moving to sort of a more steady state situation?

換句話說，投資是在加速還是在以同樣的速度移動？還是我們正在轉向一種更穩定的狀態？

Yes. Adam, I will be hesitant to compare it. We think we're making the appropriate investments. And it goes back to really balancing strong growth for the investor and the related cash and the appropriate investments there. And so we're going to make the appropriate investments. We're never going to starve a category for investment that we think we're making significant progress in. And so we're going to make the appropriate investments. I hesitate to say because the timing can be different during the year, and so 1 quarter compared to our previous quarter or vice versa. But certainly, we feel good about the investments we've made.

是的。亞當，我會猶豫比較它。我們認為我們正在進行適當的投資。它可以追溯到真正平衡投資者的強勁增長和相關現金以及那裡的適當投資。因此，我們將進行適當的投資。我們永遠不會餓死一個我們認為我們正在取得重大進展的投資類別。因此，我們將進行適當的投資。我不敢說，因為一年中的時間可能會有所不同，因此 1 季度與上一季度相比，反之亦然。但可以肯定的是，我們對我們所做的投資感覺良好。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Priya Ohri-Gupta of Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Priya Ohri-Gupta。

I was wondering if you could walk us through how we should think about your cash balance just given the elevated nature of it at year-end? You have a few sort of things that are earmarked for that use. So you have $1.5 billion of maturity coming up, the share repurchase program, increased investments behind the noncombustible side. So how should we think about each of those relative to the elevated cash balance and sort of that cash balance getting back to more normalized levels?

我想知道你是否能告訴我們我們應該如何考慮你的現金餘額，因為它在年底的性質有所提高？您有一些指定用於該用途的東西。所以你有 15 億美元的到期日，股票回購計劃，增加了不可燃方面的投資。那麼我們應該如何考慮與升高的現金餘額相關的每一個，以及現金餘額恢復到更正常的水平？

This is Sal. I think you characterized it fairly. We do have an elevated cash balance, and we have had typically, Billy and I have talked about throughout 2020 the desire to have an elevated cash balance as we manage through the pandemic. Remember, last year, the Board of Directors receded the share buyback program, and we were very focused on it. And I think you've articulated the uses of cash for this year. We're excited that the -- and really pleased that the Board of Directors authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by June 30, 2022. So we're excited about that. I think it's the appropriate level. It reflects the value in our shares and enhances shareholder value, but we also maintain capital allocation flexibility.

這是薩爾。我認為你對它的描述很公平。我們確實有較高的現金餘額，而且通常情況下，比利和我一直在談論在整個 2020 年期間，我們希望在應對大流行期間擁有較高的現金餘額。請記住，去年，董事會取消了股票回購計劃，我們非常關注它。我認為你已經闡明了今年現金的用途。我們很高興 - 並且非常高興董事會批准了一項新的 20 億美元的股票回購計劃，我們預計該計劃將在 2022 年 6 月 30 日之前完成。所以我們對此感到興奮。我認為這是適當的水平。它反映了我們股票的價值並提高了股東價值，但我們也保持了資本配置的靈活性。

We remain committed to the 80% target payout ratio for our dividends against adjusted earnings per share. And when you think about our cash position, in a typical year after paying the dividend, making the necessary investments, capital investments in our business, we traditionally have about $1 billion in excess cash. And we will run through our capital allocation analysis to determine the best use of that cash.

我們仍然致力於將股息與調整後每股收益的比例保持在 80% 的目標支付率。當您考慮我們的現金狀況時，在支付股息、進行必要投資、對我們的業務進行資本投資後的典型年份，我們通常擁有約 10 億美元的超額現金。我們將通過我們的資本分配分析來確定現金的最佳用途。

That's helpful. And I guess if we think that about sort of refinancing versus using the cash to pay down your upcoming maturity, could you walk us through some of the considerations that go into that specific decision?

這很有幫助。我想，如果我們考慮到再融資與使用現金來償還即將到期的債務，您能否向我們介紹一下該特定決定中的一些考慮因素？

Yes. And I don't want to get ahead of myself on how we think about debt refinancing or debt retirement. What I would tell you is that we take into a lot of factors, as many companies do, market conditions, best use of capitals to enhance shareholder value. So we have a very talented treasury team. They work really hard on staying ahead of our debt maturities and thinking about capital allocation and the best use of our capital going forward.

是的。而且我不想在我們如何看待債務再融資或債務退休方面超越自己。我要告訴你的是，我們考慮了很多因素，就像許多公司一樣，市場條件，資本的最佳利用來提高股東價值。所以我們有一個非常有才華的財務團隊。他們非常努力地保持領先於我們的債務到期，並考慮資本配置和未來對我們資本的最佳利用。

Okay. That's helpful. One final just follow-up for me. How do you think about share repurchases in an accelerated manner versus sort of at an ongoing rate over the course of sort of the next 18 months?

好的。這很有幫助。最後一次只是對我的跟進。您如何看待在未來 18 個月內以加速的方式進行股票回購，而不是以持續的速度進行股票回購？

Yes. I don't think it's helpful for me to share how quickly or the pace that we buy our shares back in a share repurchase program. I would tell you that we have communicated that it's an 18-month program, and we will buy our shares. And you're right. It does depend on market conditions when it comes to the pace of share buyback. But I really don't think I should really provide much more detail than that.

是的。我認為分享我們在股票回購計劃中回購股票的速度或速度對我沒有幫助。我會告訴你，我們已經傳達了這是一個為期 18 個月的計劃，我們將購買我們的股票。你是對的。在股票回購的速度方面，它確實取決於市場狀況。但我真的不認為我應該提供比這更多的細節。

Your next question comes from the line of Jennifer Maloney of The Wall Street Journal.

您的下一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的 Jennifer Maloney。

I wonder if you could talk about how you think consumer behavior may or may not change? I know that you've talked about different scenarios that you could envision, but a lot of consumer goods companies say that they expect there to be some permanent change in the way we behave moving forward even after the vaccine. People might continue to snack more or they'll work home part of the week. So what's your best guess as to how much of this change in consumer behavior is sticky and how much we go back to the way things were?

我想知道您是否可以談談您認為消費者行為可能會或可能不會改變的方式？我知道你談到了你可以設想的不同情景，但許多消費品公司表示，他們預計即使在疫苗接種後，我們的行為方式也會發生一些永久性的變化。人們可能會繼續吃更多零食，或者他們會在一周的一部分時間裡在家工作。那麼對於消費者行為的這種變化有多少是粘性的，以及我們有多少回到原來的樣子，你最好的猜測是什麼？

Yes. It's a great question, Jennifer. It is something that we're going to monitor, engage with our consumers on a regular basis to be able to assess that. When you think about our consumer, they tend to be a bit at the lower end of the economic status. And so from that standpoint, they definitely need to be able to work. It depends on their trade of what they are participating in the workforce end of how readily available they can choose to be completely remote versus having to report in at times. So I think it's going to vary greatly. And it remains to be seen how much they adjust their lifestyle back to, I'll call it, normal pre-COVID to now even past a COVID pandemic, how much they adapt and change. So I think it remains to be seen, and it's something that we'll be engaged with our consumers to be able to assess through time.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，詹妮弗。這是我們將要監控的事情，定期與我們的消費者互動以便能夠對其進行評估。當您考慮我們的消費者時，他們往往處於經濟地位的低端。所以從這個角度來看，他們肯定需要能夠工作。這取決於他們對他們參與勞動力的交易，以及他們可以選擇完全遠程而不是有時不得不報告的容易程度。所以我認為它會有很大的不同。他們在多大程度上調整自己的生活方式，我稱之為 COVID 之前的正常狀態，甚至在 COVID 大流行之後，他們適應和改變了多少，還有待觀察。所以我認為這還有待觀察，我們將與消費者互動，以便能夠隨著時間的推移進行評估。

If people are smoking more now and their discretionary spending goes down because they want to spend more at the movie theater, how much of a lever is the discretionary spending? And how much of a lever is the fact that they are now sort of accustomed to and dependent on a higher number of cigarettes per day and that might be difficult to cut back moving forward?

如果人們現在吸煙更多，並且他們的可自由支配支出下降是因為他們想在電影院花更多錢，那麼可自由支配支出有多大的槓桿作用？他們現在已經習慣並依賴於每天更多數量的香煙並且可能難以減少向前推進的事實，這在多大程度上是一個槓桿？

Yes. I mean, I think you can go back to '15, 2015. And if you look at that, really, what we saw take place was that the precipitous drop in gas prices gave our consumers extra discretionary spend. So to be able to answer your discretionary spend, I would go back in time.

是的。我的意思是，我認為你可以回到 2015 年 15 月。如果你看一下，真的，我們看到的是汽油價格的急劇下降給了我們的消費者額外的可自由支配支出。因此，為了能夠回答您的可自由支配支出，我會及時返回。

And so as we saw them adapt to that, certainly, they added occasions to their day. But then they adapted those occasions back out. I think it's important to remember, the underlying trend of prevalence, that trend is pretty steady. It hasn't changed. So it really is extra tobacco usage occasions in their day. And it goes back to your first question is how do they adapt their lifestyle? How quickly do they return to other types of discretionary spend, depending on -- that would be dependent on how they think about their usage occasions in a day.

因此，當我們看到他們適應了這一點時，當然，他們為他們的一天增加了一些場合。但後來他們調整了這些場合。我認為重要的是要記住，流行的基本趨勢是相當穩定的。它沒有改變。因此，在他們的日子裡，這確實是額外的煙草使用場合。回到你的第一個問題是他們如何適應他們的生活方式？他們以多快的速度恢復到其他類型的可自由支配支出，這取決於他們如何看待一天中的使用場合。

At this time, I would like to turn the call back to management for closing comments.

此時，我想將電話轉回管理層以結束評論。

Thank you, Laurie. Altria's tobacco businesses have a track record of delivering strong and consistent financial performance in challenging environments. Our outstanding 2020 results demonstrate the resilience of our business, and we continue to reward our shareholders by returning a significant amount of cash in the form of dividends. We have strong plans for 2021 in pursuit of our 10-year vision and believe our tobacco business platform has the winning brands and is unmatched. Thanks again for joining us. Please stay safe and contact our Investor Relations team if you have any further questions. Thanks very much.

謝謝你，勞裡。奧馳亞的煙草業務在充滿挑戰的環境中提供強勁和一致的財務業績方面有著良好的記錄。我們出色的 2020 年業績證明了我們業務的彈性，我們繼續通過以股息形式返還大量現金來回報我們的股東。我們為 2021 年制定了強有力的計劃，以實現我們的 10 年願景，並相信我們的煙草業務平台擁有獲勝的品牌並且是無與倫比的。再次感謝您加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題，請保持安全並聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。非常感謝。

Thank you for participating in the Altria Group 2020 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

感謝您參加奧馳亞集團 2020 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。