3M (MMM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

3M 第三季財報電話會議業績強勁,非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 1.98 美元,有機收入成長 1%。該公司提高了獲利指引,並概述了推動成長和改善營運績效的優先事項。

他們公佈的調整後總銷售額為 61 億美元,其中亞太地區和工業部門實現成長。 3M 專注於營運轉型、供應鏈生產力和利潤擴張。他們的重組計劃正在按計劃進行,並擁有強大的資本結構。

該公司正在投資於創新、改進預測並推動超越 GDP 的成長。他們也專注於向市場推出新產品並提高產品組合的活力指數。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

    女士們先生們,謝謝你們的支持。

  • Welcome to the 3M third quarter earnings conference call.

    歡迎參加 3M 第三季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded Tuesday, October 22, 2024.

    (操作員說明)謹此提醒,此通話的錄音時間為 2024 年 10 月 22 日星期二。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Bruce Jermeland, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at 3M.

    我現在想將電話轉給 3M 投資者關係資深副總裁 Bruce Jermeland。

  • Bruce Jermeland Jermeland - SVP, IR

    Bruce Jermeland Jermeland - SVP, IR

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter earnings conference call.

    謝謝大家,大家早安,歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。

  • With me today are Bill Brown, 3M's Chief Executive Officer; and Anurag Maheshwari, our Chief Financial Officer.

    今天和我在一起的有 3M 執行長比爾布朗 (Bill Brown);以及我們的財務長阿努拉格·馬赫什瓦里 (Anurag Maheshwari)。

  • Bill and Anrak will make some formal comments, then we'll take your questions.

    比爾和安拉克將發表一些正式評論,然後我們將回答您的問題。

  • Please note that today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call are posted on the homepage of our Investor Relations website at 3m.com. Please turn to slide 2.

    請注意,今天的收益發布和伴隨本次電話會議的幻燈片演示已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站 3m.com 的主頁上。請翻到投影片 2。

  • Please take a moment to read the forward-looking statement.

    請花一點時間閱讀前瞻性聲明。

  • During today's conference call, we will be making certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M's future performance and financial results.

    在今天的電話會議上,我們將做出某些預測性陳述,以反映我們目前對 3M 未來業績和財務表現的看法。

  • These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

    這些陳述是基於對未來事件的某些假設和預期,這些假設和預期存在風險和不確定性。

  • Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-Q lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.

    我們最新的 10-Q 表的第 1A 項列出了一些可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的最重要的風險因素。

  • Please note, throughout today's presentation, we will be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

    請注意,在今天的演示中,我們將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

  • Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in the attachments to today's press release.

    非公認會計原則措施的調節可以在今天新聞稿的附件中找到。

  • With that, please turn to slide 3, and I'll hand the call off to Bill.

    接下來,請翻到投影片 3,我會將電話轉交給 Bill。

  • Bill?

    帳單?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Bruce, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,布魯斯,大家早安。

  • First, I'd like to take a moment and welcome Anurag to his first 3M earnings call.

    首先,我想花一點時間歡迎 Anurag 參加他的第一次 3M 財報電話會議。

  • Anurag recently joined 3M in early September after serving as CFO of Otis.

    Anurag 在擔任奧的斯 (Otis) 財務長後於 9 月初加入 3M。

  • I've had the pleasure of working with Anurag off and on over the past 20 years and look forward to his leadership and partnership as 3M's CFO.

    在過去的 20 年裡,我很高興與 Anurag 斷斷續續地合作,並期待他作為 3M 財務長的領導和合作。

  • Earlier today, we reported strong third quarter results with non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.98, up 18% on 1% organic revenue growth.

    今天早些時候,我們公佈了強勁的第三季業績,非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.98 美元,有機收入增長 1%,增長 18%。

  • Our overall company margins increased 140 basis points to 23%, and free cash flow was $1.5 billion, with conversion of 141%, and we returned $1.1 billion to shareholders during the quarter via dividends and share repurchases.

    我們公司的整體利潤率成長了 140 個基點,達到 23%,自由現金流為 15 億美元,轉換率為 141%,本季我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還 11 億美元。

  • These results extend our strong 2024 operating performance with non-GAAP earnings per share over the first three quarters, up 30% on 1% organic revenue growth.

    這些業績延續了我們 2024 年強勁的經營業績,前三個季度的非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長了 30%,有機收入成長 1%。

  • As a result of the team's strong operational performance and disciplined capital deployment, we raised the bottom end of our full year earnings guidance by $0.20 to a range of $7.20 to $7.30, versus a prior range of $7 to $7.30 per share.

    由於該團隊強勁的營運業績和嚴格的資本部署,我們將全年盈利指引的下限上調了 0.20 美元,達到 7.20 美元至 7.30 美元的範圍,而之前的範圍為每股 7 美元至 7.30 美元。

  • During our Q2 earnings call, I described our top three priorities: number 1, driving sustained top line organic growth through both reinvigorating innovation and improving commercial excellence; two, improving operational performance across the enterprise; and three, effectively deploying capital.

    在第二季財報電話會議上,我描述了我們的三大優先事項:第一,透過重振創新和提高商業卓越性來推動持續的營收有機成長;二、提高整個企業的營運績效;三是有效配置資本。

  • As I mentioned in July, getting more productivity out of our R&D investments is going to take some time, but we're beginning to make progress on both R&D effectiveness and efficiency.

    正如我在 7 月所提到的,從我們的研發投資中獲得更高的生產力需要一些時間,但我們已經開始在研發有效性和效率方面取得進展。

  • A lot of our recent efforts have focused on the basic blocking and tackling and improving the fundamentals of our R&D and commercialization processes.

    我們最近的許多努力都集中在基本的阻礙和解決上,並改善我們研發和商業化流程的基礎。

  • For example, we've taken actions to improve enterprise-wide visibility on specific investments in our product development pipeline.

    例如,我們已採取行動提高整個企業對產品開發管道特定投資的可見度。

  • And we're driving new rigor and discipline into product launch calendars and raising accountability for post-launch sales performance.

    我們正在對產品發布日曆推行新的嚴格性和紀律,並提高對發布後銷售業績的責任。

  • We're fast-tracking projects for low-risk product line extensions, eliminating nonvalue-added activity from our engineers workload by offloading or outsourcing administrative tasks and increasing pipeline velocity through efforts as simple as reducing the time to set up an SKU from 100 days on average last year to about 60 days this year.

    我們正在快速追蹤低風險產品線擴展項目,透過卸載或外包管理任務來消除工程師工作量中的非增值活動,並透過將設定 SKU 的時間從 100 天縮短到提高管道速度去年平均為60天,今年則為60天左右。

  • And to address bottlenecks and drive productivity in the product development process, we're shifting capital spending within our existing budget to fund upgrades of R&D facilities to allow us to scale rapidly from lab to pilot to manufacturing.

    為了解決產品開發過程中的瓶頸並提高生產力,我們正在將現有預算內的資本支出轉移到研發設施的升級上,以便我們能夠快速從實驗室擴展到試點再到製造。

  • And finally, we're shifting about 100 people within R&D to focus on new product development, including those who are rolling off PFAS-related projects and adding more than 50 new engineers in the fourth quarter to high priority focus areas such as specialty materials and films for the automotive, aerospace, electronics and semiconductor markets.

    最後,我們將在研發部門調動約100 名人員,專注於新產品開發,其中包括那些正在推出PFAS 相關專案的人員,並在第四季度增加50 多名新工程師,以關注特種材料和特種材料等高優先重點領域。

  • After a decade-long slide in new product introductions, we bottomed out and are starting to turn the corner with new product launches expected to be up about 10% this year with a further acceleration next year.

    新產品推出量經歷了長達十年的下滑之後,我們已觸底反彈,並開始扭轉局面,預計今年新產品推出量將成長約 10%,明年將進一步加速。

  • I recognize these are only initial steps on a long journey toward bending the organic growth curve.

    我認識到這些只是彎曲有機成長曲線的漫長旅程的第一步。

  • And in the meantime, we have to improve how we execute at the customer interface.

    同時,我們必須改進在客戶介面上的執行方式。

  • We're working through the details of how we staff, train and incentivize our sales force, price our products, leverage our distribution network and capture cross-sell opportunities, and we'll share those details as they evolve.

    我們正在研究如何招募、培訓和激勵我們的銷售人員、為我們的產品定價、利用我們的分銷網絡和抓住交叉銷售機會的細節,我們將在這些細節的發展過程中分享這些細節。

  • But one area where we've seen continued progress is delivering on on-time in full or OTIF to our customers.

    但我們看到持續進步的一個領域是按時全額或 OTIF 向我們的客戶交付。

  • I know we've lost business and have paid fines due to poor delivery performance, and I'm encouraged by the steady improvement we're making, ending Q3 at 89% OTIF, up 5 points since the beginning of the year and 10 points above Q4 of 2022.

    我知道由於交付表現不佳,我們已經失去了業務並支付了罰款,我對我們正在取得的穩步改進感到鼓舞,第三季度結束時的OTIF 為89%,比年初提高了5 個百分點,提高了10 個百分點高於 2022 年第四季。

  • As we push harder on OTIF, we're getting more visibility on the weak links in the value chain from the performance in our factories, to our suppliers and to our logistics providers.

    隨著我們加強對 OTIF 的力度,我們可以更清楚地了解價值鏈中的薄弱環節,從我們工廠的績效到我們的供應商和我們的物流提供者。

  • In our factories, we're looking harder at the reliability of our assets and our capacity to surge.

    在我們的工廠中,我們更加重視資產的可靠性和激增的能力。

  • And we've now implemented a common metric to measure operating equipment efficiency, or OEE, across the major assets in our 38 largest facilities.

    我們現在已經實施了一個通用指標來衡量 38 個最大工廠的主要資產的營運設備效率 (OEE)。

  • Utilization on these machines going back to the beginning of the year averages around 50%, well short of best-in-class companies, importing opportunities to free up capacity to better respond to quick turn orders by optimizing changeovers and improving maintenance practices.

    自年初以來,這些機器的利用率平均約為 50%,遠低於一流公司的水平,這為釋放產能提供了機會,可以透過優化轉換和改進維護實踐來更好地響應快速週轉訂單。

  • When it comes to our suppliers and contract manufacturers, we're implementing more rigorous standards and expectations for on-time performance, which has been running in the low 60% range for the past few years, and is now in the low 70s.

    對於我們的供應商和合約製造商,我們正在實施更嚴格的準時率標準和期望,過去幾年準時率一直在 60% 左右,現在則在 70% 左右。

  • A common theme in all of these discussions is the need for significantly higher demand visibility and forecast accuracy, which has been running in the mid-60% range. 10 to 15 points below expectation and well below best-in-class companies.

    所有這些討論的一個共同主題是需要顯著提高需求可見度和預測準確性,其範圍一直在 60% 左右。比預期低 10 到 15 個百分點,遠低於一流公司。

  • We recently kicked off a project to redesign our forecasting process, and we're in the early stages of a 15-week sprint to test and tune our demand plan for two large divisions using different analytical tools.

    我們最近啟動了一個重新設計預測流程的項目,目前正處於為期 15 週衝刺的早期階段,旨在使用不同的分析工具測試和調整兩個大型部門的需求計劃。

  • Initial results through the new model show a lot of promise in improving forecast accuracy, which will allow us to level load our factories, reduce inventory throughout the value chain and improve on-time delivery to customers.

    新模型的初步結果表明,在提高預測準確性方面有很大希望,這將使我們能夠平衡工廠的負載,減少整個價值鏈的庫存,並提高對客戶的準時交付。

  • As I mentioned in July, this is a back to basics focus on fundamental approach that lays the groundwork for a more holistic look at network complexity.

    正如我在 7 月提到的,這是對基本方法的回歸基礎,為更全面地看待網路複雜性奠定了基礎。

  • While we've closed facilities in the past, and have a few more in flight today, gaining maturity in our OEE metric will allow us to take a fresh look at consolidation opportunities at both the site and the work cell level over time.

    雖然我們過去已經關閉了一些設施,並且今天還有一些設施正在運行,但 OEE 指標的成熟將使我們能夠隨著時間的推移重新審視現場和工作單元層面的整合機會。

  • A critical enabler of our OpEx agenda is the depth and capacity of our operations leadership team, and we continue to onboard new talent, particularly in the areas of quality, materials planning and continuous improvement.

    我們營運支出議程的關鍵推動因素是我們營運領導團隊的深度和能力,我們將繼續招募新人才,特別是在品質、材料規劃和持續改進領域。

  • These efforts are all part of a broad operational transformation at 3M, the foundation of which is a safety-first culture.

    這些努力都是 3M 廣泛營運轉型的一部分,其基礎是安全第一的文化。

  • While our injury rate has improved versus last year, it's not where we want it to be.

    雖然我們的受傷率比去年有所改善,但還沒有達到我們想要的水平。

  • Earlier this month, we launched a company-wide campaign called Journey to Zero that engages every employee in our drive towards an injury-free workplace.

    本月早些時候,我們在全公司範圍內發起了一項名為「零傷害之旅」的活動,讓每位員工都參與實現無傷害工作場所的努力。

  • Turning to capital deployment.

    轉向資本配置。

  • Through nine months, we've generated $3.5 billion of adjusted free cash flow with conversion of 102%, after investing $1.7 billion in R&D and CapEx.

    經過 9 個月的時間,在研發和資本支出投資 17 億美元後,我們產生了 35 億美元的調整後自由現金流,轉換率為 102%。

  • We've returned $2.7 billion to shareholders including share repurchases of $1.1 billion.

    我們已向股東返還 27 億美元,其中包括 11 億美元的股票回購。

  • Our balance sheet remains strong, and we're actively reviewing our portfolio with a few small businesses now in the early stages of a sale process.

    我們的資產負債表仍然強勁,我們正在積極審查我們與一些處於銷售過程早期階段的小型企業的投資組合。

  • So overall, we're making progress on the three priorities that I've laid out, and I'm encouraged by the energy and desire of our team to win by delivering for our customers and creating value for our shareholders.

    總的來說,我們在我列出的三個優先事項上取得了進展,我們團隊透過為客戶提供服務、為股東創造價值來取勝的精力和願望讓我深受鼓舞。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Anurag to provide more details on the quarter and our updated guidance.

    接下來,讓我將其轉交給 Anurag,以提供有關本季度和我們更新的指導的更多詳細資訊。

  • Anurag?

    阿努拉格?

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Bill.

    謝謝你,比爾。

  • Starting with overall company third quarter performance on slide 4.

    從幻燈片 4 上的公司第三季整體業績開始。

  • Total adjusted sales were $6.1 billion, with organic growth up 1% or up 2% excluding geographic prioritization and product portfolio initiatives.

    調整後總銷售額為 61 億美元,有機成長 1% 或成長 2%(不包括地理優先順序和產品組合計畫)。

  • These results reflect end market trends that were largely in line with expectations, including mixed industrial markets, strong growth in electronics, a decline in automotive OEM build rates and continued softness in consumer retail discretionary spending.

    這些結果反映了基本符合預期的終端市場趨勢,包括工業市場混合、電子產品強勁增長、汽車原始設備製造商建造率下降以及消費者零售可自由支配支出持續疲軟。

  • Looking geographically, adjusted organic growth was led by Asia Pacific, up mid-single digits, driven by our electronics business.

    從地理來看,調整後的有機成長由亞太地區引領,在我們的電子業務的推動下,成長了中個位數。

  • The US was flat with strength in home improvement and commercial branding and transportation, offset by a tough comp in personal safety as self-contained breathing apparatus benefited from significant supply recovery last year.

    美國在家居裝修、商業品牌和運輸方面表現持平,但由於自給式呼吸器受益於去年供應的大幅復甦,個人安全方面的強勁表現抵消了這一影響。

  • And EMEA was down low single digits due to the decline in global car and light truck builds.

    由於全球汽車和輕型卡車產量下降,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的產量下降了低個位數。

  • Adjusted operating margins expanded 140 basis points to 23%, driven by benefits from improved organic growth, continued productivity and restructuring.

    受有機成長改善、持續生產力和重組的推動,調整後營業利潤率擴大 140 個基點至 23%。

  • This strong operating performance, along with benefits from below-the-line items resulted in adjusted EPS of $1.98, up 18% or $0.30.

    強勁的經營業績,加上線下專案的效益,調整後每股收益為 1.98 美元,成長 18%,即 0.30 美元。

  • Turning to revenue by business group on slide 5.

    轉向投影片 5 中按業務組別劃分的收入。

  • Safety and industrial sales were $2.8 billion with organic growth of 0.9%.

    安全和工業銷售額為 28 億美元,有機成長 0.9%。

  • The growth was primarily driven by the industrial adhesives and tapes division, which saw particular strength in bonding solutions for electronic devices.

    這一增長主要是由工業粘合劑和膠帶部門推動的,該部門在電子設備粘合解決方案方面表現尤為突出。

  • In addition, we saw growth in roofing granules and electrical markets, while the balance of the divisions was down slightly due to ongoing market softness and unfavorable prior year comps.

    此外,我們看到屋頂顆粒和電氣市場的成長,而由於市場持續疲軟和去年不利的比較,這些部門的平衡略有下降。

  • Transportation and electronics adjusted sales were $1.9 billion, up 2% organically.

    運輸和電子產品調整後銷售額為 19 億美元,有機成長 2%。

  • Our electronics business delivered high single-digit organic growth as consumer electronics OEM customers ramp production volumes ahead of the upcoming holiday season.

    隨著消費性電子產品 OEM 客戶在即將到來的假期季節之前提高產量,我們的電子業務實現了高單位數有機成長。

  • Automotive and aerospace division organic growth was down mid-single digits in the third quarter.

    汽車和航空航天部門第三季的有機成長下降到中個位數。

  • The auto OEM business declined in line with global car and light truck builds, while aerospace delivered strong growth driven by bonding and acoustic solutions.

    汽車 OEM 業務隨著全球汽車和輕型卡車製造的成長而下降,而航空航太業務在黏合和聲學解決方案的推動下實現了強勁成長。

  • Year-to-date, our total auto OEM business was up 4% versus a 2% decline in global car and light truck build rates.

    今年迄今為止,我們的汽車 OEM 業務總量成長了 4%,而全球汽車和輕型卡車製造率下降了 2%。

  • We continue to gain penetration with adhesives, tapes, display films and electronic materials on multiple new auto OEM platforms.

    我們繼續在多個新的汽車 OEM 平台上滲透黏合劑、膠帶、顯示薄膜和電子材料。

  • Looking at the rest of the transportation and electronics, advanced materials grew high single digits with strong glass bubble demand for lightweighting applications in transportation and oil and gas markets.

    看看其他運輸和電子產品,先進材料成長了高個位數,運輸和石油和天然氣市場對輕量化應用的玻璃泡棉需求強勁。

  • Commercial branding and transportation was up low single digits driven by demand for graphics and pavement markings.

    受圖形和路面標記需求的推動,商業品牌和交通運輸成長了低個位數。

  • Finally, the consumer business sales were $1.3 billion.

    最後,消費者業務銷售額為13億美元。

  • Organic sales declined 0.7%, which included a 2.3 percentage point headwind from portfolio prioritization.

    有機銷售額下降 0.7%,其中包括投資組合優先順序帶來的 2.3 個百分點的阻力。

  • Home improvement delivered mid-single-digit growth driven by new products in our command portfolio, introduced for the back-to-school and holiday seasons.

    在我們為返校季和假期推出的指揮產品組合中的新產品的推動下,家居裝修實現了中位數的增長。

  • The remaining divisions within the consumer business declined due to portfolio prioritization actions as well as retail customers continuing to be price-sensitive and value focused.

    由於投資組合優先行動以及零售客戶繼續對價格敏感和注重價值,消費者業務中的其餘部門出現了下滑。

  • Through the course of the year, the consumer business has improved, and we expect the trend to continue in the fourth quarter.

    今年以來,消費者業務有所改善,我們預計第四季度趨勢將持續。

  • Turning to slide 6.

    轉到投影片 6。

  • As mentioned, on an adjusted basis, we delivered Q3 operating margins of 23%, up 140 basis points and earnings per share of $1.98 or an increase of $0.30.

    如前所述,在調整後的基礎上,我們第三季的營業利潤率為 23%,成長了 140 個基點,每股收益為 1.98 美元,即成長了 0.30 美元。

  • Operational performance, including organic growth, along with ongoing benefits from productivity and restructuring contributed 160 basis points to margins, while foreign currency was a headwind of 20 basis points.

    包括有機成長在內的營運績效,以及生產力和重組帶來的持續效益,為利潤率貢獻了 160 個基點,而外幣匯率則是 20 個基點的阻力。

  • These items, combined with acquisition and divestiture impacts, contributed $0.14 to earnings.

    這些項目加上收購和剝離的影響,為收益貢獻了 0.14 美元。

  • The remaining $0.16 of EPS growth was driven by last year's high tax comp, along with benefits from net interest and a lower share count.

    剩餘的 0.16 美元每股收益成長是由去年的高稅收補償以及淨利息和較少股份數量帶來的好處所推動的。

  • Turning to cash.

    轉向現金。

  • We generated solid adjusted free cash flow of $1.5 billion in the quarter, driven by strong income generation and positive working capital flows while continuing to invest capital to support growth and sustainability.

    在強勁的創收和積極的營運資本流動的推動下,我們本季產生了 15 億美元的穩定調整後自由現金流,同時繼續投資資本以支持成長和永續發展。

  • Conversion for the quarter was 141%.

    本季的轉換率為 141%。

  • Overall, we have had very strong year-to-date operating performance, we have expanded margin 380 basis points, grew EPS by 30% on 1% organic growth and generated $3.5 billion of free cash flow with conversion of 102%.

    總體而言,我們今年迄今的經營業績非常強勁,利潤率擴大了380 個基點,每股收益在1% 的有機增長的基礎上增長了30%,並產生了35 億美元的自由現金流,轉換率為102%。

  • Based on this performance, we are updating our full year 2024 guidance on slide 7.

    根據這一表現,我們正在更新幻燈片 7 上的 2024 年全年指導。

  • We expect our full year adjusted organic growth to be approximately 1%, with business group estimates unchanged, with safety and industrial flat to up low single digits.

    我們預計全年調整後的有機成長約為 1%,業務部門的預期保持不變,安全和工業業務持平,成長較低的個位數。

  • Transportation and electronics, up low single digits; and consumer down low single digits.

    交通運輸和電子產品上漲低個位數;和消費者下降低個位數。

  • Full year adjusted operating margins are expected to be up 250 to 275 basis points versus the prior range of 225 to 275, driven by continued momentum from productivity.

    在生產力持續成長的推動下,全年調整後營業利潤率預計將比先前的 225 至 275 個基點成長 250 至 275 個基點。

  • The operational benefit, combined with lower net interest expense and share count, gives us confidence to raise the lower end of our EPS guidance by $0.20 to a range of $7.20 to $7.30.

    營運效益加上較低的淨利息支出和股票數量,使我們有信心將 EPS 指導的下限提高 0.20 美元,達到 7.20 美元至 7.30 美元的範圍。

  • Finally, our expectation is that we will continue to deliver robust cash flow with strong working capital performance in the fourth quarter.

    最後,我們的預期是,我們將在第四季度繼續提供強勁的現金流和強勁的營運資本表現。

  • With year-to-date conversion at 102%, we expect that the adjusted free cash flow conversion performance will be 100%-plus for the full year.

    由於年初至今的轉換率為 102%,我們預計全年調整後的自由現金流轉換績效將達到 100% 以上。

  • Before we turn to Q&A, I want to take a moment to thank the 3M team for the warm welcome.

    在我們進行問答之前,我想花點時間感謝 3M 團隊的熱情歡迎。

  • I'm excited for the opportunity ahead of us and look forward to working with the team as we execute the priorities Bill has laid out.

    我對我們面前的機會感到很興奮,並期待與團隊合作,執行比爾制定的優先事項。

  • With that, let's open the call for questions.

    接下來,讓我們開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Scott Davis, Melius Research.

    (操作員說明)Scott Davis,Melius Research。

  • Scott Davis - Analyst

    Scott Davis - Analyst

  • Good morning, everybody.

    大家早安。

  • Bill and Anurag and Bruce, and congrats to all on a good start here.

    比爾、阿努拉格和布魯斯,恭喜大家在這裡取得了良好的開端。

  • Yeah, I want to talk a little bit about this operational transformation.

    是的,我想談談這個營運轉型。

  • It seems like a pretty heavy lift, but obviously, you're making some progress.

    這似乎是一項相當繁重的工作,但顯然,您正在取得一些進展。

  • But last quarter, you spent some time on supply chain, not in prepared remarks, not as much this quarter.

    但上個季度,您在供應鏈上花了一些時間,而不是在準備好的評論中,本季沒有那麼多。

  • How big of an opportunity?

    機會有多大?

  • Is that kind of step 2 or step 3 down the road and kind of getting the supply chain reoriented?

    這是接下來的第 2 步或第 3 步以及對供應鏈進行重新定位嗎?

  • And how big of an opportunity do you think that is, Bill, now that you've had a little bit more time in the seat?

    比爾,既然你在座位上有了更多的時間,你認為這是一個多大的機會?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • So Scott, thanks for the question.

    斯科特,謝謝你的提問。

  • Look, we continue to make good progress across all of the elements in our operations.

    看,我們在營運的所有方面都繼續取得良好進展。

  • Our cost of goods sold is $13 billion, a piece of it -- a big piece of it is supply chain.

    我們的銷售成本是 130 億美元,其中很大一部分是供應鏈。

  • So obviously, that is a high degree of focus.

    顯然,這是高度關注。

  • We're looking to drive 2% net productivity, so 2% net of inflation across all those elements, including in supply chain.

    我們希望將淨生產率提高 2%,即所有這些要素(包括供應鏈中的要素)扣除通貨膨脹後的淨生產率提高 2%。

  • We have about 25,000 direct suppliers, including 4,000 contract manufacturers.

    我們擁有約 25,000 家直接供應商,其中包括 4,000 家合約製造商。

  • Our teams are working hard to consolidate that, drive performance, and we continue to do a good job on this.

    我們的團隊正在努力鞏固這一點,提高績效,我們將繼續在這方面做得很好。

  • I think we're at the front end of what I would say to be a long journey.

    我認為我們正處於一段漫長旅程的前端。

  • I think we get a lot of value out of basic negotiations.

    我認為我們從基本談判中獲得了很多價值。

  • I think we have a lot more opportunity as we think more about value engineering in our product, that's a relatively small component of our overall supply savings.

    我認為,當我們更多地考慮產品中的價值工程時,我們有更多的機會,這在我們整體供應節省中只佔相對較小的組成部分。

  • So the teams are working, I think, very, very hard on this.

    所以我認為團隊正在為此非常非常努力地工作。

  • Again, as I step back across all the $13 billion, if you drive and get 2% net, you're talking $650 million more or less of $250 million, $260 million worth of net productivity.

    再一次,當我回過頭來回顧這130 億美元時,如果你開車並獲得2% 的淨生產率,那麼你所說的是價值2.5 億美元、2.6 億美元的淨生產力,或多或少有6.5 億美元。

  • There's a lot of value there that we can capture year-over-year.

    我們可以逐年捕捉到很多價值。

  • I spent a little time in my prepared remarks talking about one of the key levers because I think it's both a growth and an operations level, and that's delivering on time in full.

    我在準備好的發言中花了一點時間談論其中一個關鍵槓桿,因為我認為這既是成長又是營運水平,而且是按時全面交付。

  • And we're getting -- doing very well -- very good job in our factories.

    我們的工廠做得非常好。

  • The team is performing well, but it's pointing out some opportunities to drive better supplier performance, and we're really, really focused on that.

    團隊表現良好,但它指出了一些提高供應商績效的機會,我們真的非常關注這一點。

  • We've seen some improvements over the last year.

    去年我們看到了一些改進。

  • But I think a lot more to do in terms of driving the full value chain performance improvement, including with our supply base.

    但我認為在推動整個價值鏈績效改善方面還有很多工作要做,包括我們的供應基地。

  • Scott Davis - Analyst

    Scott Davis - Analyst

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And Bill, you talked a little bit about needing to change the incentive structure a little bit.

    比爾,您談到了需要稍微改變激勵結構。

  • Will you -- do you think you'll have a new incentive structure and comp plan in place for 2025?

    您認為您會在 2025 年制定新的激勵結構和薪酬計畫嗎?

  • And what does that really mean?

    這到底意味著什麼?

  • Does that mean kind of increasing the variable component?

    這是否意味著增加可變成分?

  • Can you really, dialed in, kind of to where you want it this quickly?

    您真的能這麼快撥通電話到達您想要的地方嗎?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • So good question, Scott.

    問得好,史考特。

  • I think before we get to the comp plan, I think what's going to be more important for us is to make sure we have very clear objectives across the management team, deep in these organizations.

    我認為在我們制定薪酬計畫之前,我認為對我們來說更重要的是確保我們在這些組織深處的管理團隊中有非常明確的目標。

  • So we all understand what we're accountable to achieve to shareholders and to one another.

    因此,我們都明白我們有責任為股東和彼此實現什麼目標。

  • I think that's step 1.

    我認為這是第一步。

  • And I do think we have an opportunity to get a little more crisp on our objective setting process.

    我確實認為我們有機會更清楚地了解我們的目標設定過程。

  • But of course, the back end of that is comp plans, I think you will see some adjustments in our '25 comp plan.

    但當然,後端是補償計劃,我想你會看到我們 '25 補償計劃的一些調整。

  • We are out speaking with shareowners about that based on the results we had earlier this year in our AGM.

    根據我們今年稍早在年度股東大會上獲得的結果,我們正在與股東討論這個問題。

  • But yeah, we'll continue to look at our comp plans, not just at executives, but as it flows into the organization.

    但是,是的,我們將繼續關注我們的薪酬計劃,不僅僅是高階主管,而是它流入組織的情況。

  • And importantly, with our between 5,000 and 6,000 salespeople out there, we'll continue to look at, do we have the right incentive structure to drive the right behaviors across the full 60,000-plus people in the company.

    重要的是,我們有 5,000 到 6,000 名銷售人員,我們將繼續關注是否有正確的激勵結構來推動公司 60,000 多名員工採取正確的行為。

  • So Scott, there's going to be changes that will be made.

    所以斯科特,將會做出一些改變。

  • We'll talk more about that as they come to fruition in the coming months.

    當它們在未來幾個月取得成果時,我們將更多地討論這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

    安德魯‧奧賓,美國銀行。

  • Andrew Obin - Analyst

    Andrew Obin - Analyst

  • I guess I'll ask two questions, follow-up on Scott's question.

    我想我會問兩個問題,跟進斯科特的問題。

  • Just, Bill, what are your views on centralization inside 3M?

    只是,Bill,你對 3M 內部的集中化有何看法?

  • I know Mike pushed for a lot of centralization, which was a departure from what his predecessor Inge Thulin has done, which ran the company in very, very decentralized way.

    我知道麥克推動了高度的集中化,這與他的前任英格·圖林的做法背道而馳,後者以非常非常分散的方式管理公司。

  • So I just would love to hear how your operating philosophy has evolved since you joined the company.

    所以我很想聽聽自從您加入公司以來您的經營理念是如何演變的。

  • That's part one.

    這是第一部分。

  • Part 2, we're just getting a lot of questions on insurance recovery related to PFAS and combat arms, particularly given the new side of carrier where they indicated that perhaps, they could indicate, they could recover insurance in excess of their costs.

    第 2 部分,我們剛剛收到很多有關 PFAS 和戰鬥武器相關保險賠償的問題,特別是考慮到承運人的新方面,他們表示,也許他們可以表明,他們可以收回超出其成本的保險。

  • These are public statements.

    這些是公開聲明。

  • So any sort of publicly available updates on where you are in the process on insurance recovery would be helpful?

    那麼,任何有關您在保險賠償過程中的進展情況的公開更新都會有幫助嗎?

  • Congratulations on a good quarter.

    恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Great, Andrew.

    太棒了,安德魯。

  • Thanks for the questions.

    感謝您的提問。

  • I mean, first of all, I think about 2.5 years ago.

    我的意思是,首先,我想到了 2.5 年前。

  • Mike did consolidate all of our factories and supply chains under a common leader, under Peter Gibbons, I think it was the right thing to do.

    麥克確實將我們所有的工廠和供應鏈整合到了彼得·吉本斯的共同領導之下,我認為這是正確的做法。

  • It allows us to look across 110 plus or minus factories and close to 100 -- to an 80 and 100 distribution centers and really look at performance, performance metrics, how they compare with one another.

    它使我們能夠查看 110 多家工廠和近 100 家工廠,甚至 80 和 100 個配送中心,並真正了解績效、績效指標以及它們之間的比較。

  • It's a network, they flow together.

    這是一個網絡,它們一起流動。

  • So artificially separating them that by a business group or by geography did not make a lot of sense.

    因此,按照業務集團或地理位置人為地將它們分開並沒有多大意義。

  • So you'll get the power of the whole by looking at all of the operations together.

    因此,透過一起查看所有操作,您將獲得整體的力量。

  • So if you call it centralization, I call that global coordination.

    因此,如果你稱之為集中化,我稱之為全球協調。

  • I do think that was the right step and it was smart to do that, and we're reaping the benefits of that.

    我確實認為這是正確的一步,這樣做很明智,我們正在從中受益。

  • And I think going forward, the value we'll be able to get out of operations is because of that operational, that organizational change.

    我認為,展望未來,我們能夠從營運中獲得的價值是因為營運、組織變革。

  • So I think it was the right step.

    所以我認為這是正確的一步。

  • I think the move to globally coordinating business units, depending upon the business that we run globally, some we run regionally, but all within those three broad business groups, I also think that was good.

    我認為向全球協調業務部門的轉變,取決於我們在全球範圍內運營的業務,有些是在區域內運營的,但都在這三個廣泛的業務集團內,我也認為這很好。

  • There'll some adjustments in how we structure the BGs over time, perhaps within the three business groups.

    隨著時間的推移,我們可能會在三個業務集團內調整 BG 的結構。

  • There are certain geographies that stand out that we're really focusing heavily on and we want to put a little more attention on.

    有一些地區非常突出,我們確實非常關注,並且希望給予更多關注。

  • But generally, I think Michael was taking the right steps and particularly in the supply chain area.

    但總的來說,我認為麥可採取了正確的步驟,特別是在供應鏈領域。

  • So that's on that piece on sort of your point about centralization.

    這就是您關於集中化觀點的那篇文章。

  • On insurance recoveries, just quickly, you'll see this in the Q. In Q3, we've covered $54 million in insurance recoveries between combat arms and public water suppliers.

    關於保險賠償,您很快就會在 Q 中看到這一點。

  • Year-to-date, it's over $175 million.

    今年迄今為止,這一數字已超過 1.75 億美元。

  • Recovery efforts continue.

    恢復工作仍在繼續。

  • I know it's top of mind given what other folks are talking about.

    我知道考慮到其他人正在談論的內容,這是最重要的。

  • We're active in arbitration and litigation with multiple insurers.

    我們積極與多家保險公司進行仲裁和訴訟。

  • We intend to ramp up our recovery efforts in the coming days and weeks.

    我們打算在未來幾天和幾週內加大復原力度。

  • And we do expect our insurers to honor their policy obligations to us in full.

    我們確實希望我們的保險公司能夠充分履行對我們的保單義務。

  • The difference with others is our liability that we settled for is quite a bit higher than our insurance -- total insurance value.

    與其他人的不同之處在於,我們所解決的責任比我們的保險(總保險價值)高得多。

  • So it's a little bit different than others, but we're ramping up our efforts and we're starting to recover, and we'll recover more over time.

    所以這與其他人有點不同,但我們正在加大努力,我們正在開始恢復,而且隨著時間的推移,我們會恢復得更多。

  • We'll update investors each quarter and through our Q as we recover more on insurance.

    隨著我們透過保險獲得更多回報,我們將每季並透過 Q 向投資者通報最新情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

    奈傑爾·科,沃爾夫研究中心。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • And Bill, thanks for the update.

    比爾,謝謝你的更新。

  • These are really helpful.

    這些確實很有幫助。

  • On the insurance point, I just wondered could you maybe clarify what the total coverage would be from a point perspective.

    關於保險問題,我只是想知道您能否從點的角度澄清一下總承保範圍是多少。

  • Understand that you're working on ramping up the recoveries there.

    了解您正在努力提高那裡的恢復率。

  • But my first question is really around the 2 points of net productivity.

    但我的第一個問題實際上是圍繞淨生產力的 2 個點。

  • You've got a lot of initiatives in play here.

    你們這裡有很多倡議正在發揮作用。

  • You've got the supply chain nationalization, OTIF target improvements, OEE improvements and a lot of other things as well.

    您還獲得了供應鏈國有化、OTIF 目標改進、OEE 改進以及許多其他內容。

  • Any sense on what's more important here?

    你知道這裡更重要的是什麼嗎?

  • What is the supply chain driving the bulk of that 2 points in the next two or three years?

    未來兩三年推動這 2 個點大部分成長的供應鏈是什麼?

  • I mean any sense there?

    我的意思是有什麼意義嗎?

  • And do we need some heavy lift structuring to achieve those targets?

    我們是否需要一些重大的結構來實現這些目標?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • So thanks for the question, Nigel.

    謝謝你的提問,奈傑爾。

  • I don't think I can say much more on the insurance recoveries or how much we're getting, I mean, other than what we've captured to date.

    我想我不能對保險賠償或我們得到的賠償說太多,我的意思是,除了我們迄今為止所捕獲的以外。

  • So I think we'll update you on that as we go.

    所以我想我們會及時向您通報最新情況。

  • We expect that to ramp a bit better.

    我們預計情況會好一些。

  • But look, when I step back, I mean look at $13 billion worth of cost of goods, half of that is going to be -- roughly is supply chain.

    但是,當我退後一步時,我的意思是看看價值 130 億美元的商品成本,其中一半大約是供應鏈。

  • So you'd expect the bigger parts of our productivity is going to come out of supply chain.

    因此,您可能會期望我們的生產力的大部分將來自供應鏈。

  • We have seen restructuring benefits flow through in our factories.

    我們已經看到重組帶來的好處在我們的工廠中流動。

  • That is also a factor.

    這也是一個因素。

  • We continue to drive lean activities on our factories and you're seeing the benefits of lean production, lean operations across our factory network.

    我們繼續在工廠中推動精益活動,您將看到我們工廠網路中精益生產和精益運營的好處。

  • We're seeing benefits in our transportation cost and our logistics expense as running through our distribution centers.

    我們看到了透過我們的配送中心運輸成本和物流費用的好處。

  • Last time, I spoke quite a bit about the amount of waste we generate in our company.

    上次,我談了很多關於我們公司產生的廢棄物量的問題。

  • It's -- or yield loss, however you want to characterize it, 5% of cost to be.

    無論你想如何描述它,它都是成本的 5%,或稱產量損失。

  • So it's quite substantial.

    所以這是相當可觀的。

  • We are getting at that.

    我們正在解決這個問題。

  • You're not going to get big, big dollars every year.

    你不會每年都賺到大筆的錢。

  • You get it in tens of millions and chunks over time.

    隨著時間的推移,你會得到數以千萬計的數據。

  • But we're at it.

    但我們正在努力。

  • We're running Kaizen events continuously to go get it. we've more than doubled the number of Kaizen events this year over last, and we expect that to continue going into next year.

    我們不斷舉辦 Kaizen 活動來實現這一目標。今年我們的 Kaizen 活動數量比去年增加了一倍多,我們預計這種情況將持續到明年。

  • So all of these pieces will drive that net productivity the team is pushing hard I would say stepping back, the biggest put is going to come out of the biggest part of cost base, which is supply chain.

    因此,所有這些部分都將推動團隊努力推動的淨生產力,我想說的是,最大的投入將來自成本基礎的最大部分,即供應鏈。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Bill, that's helpful.

    比爾,這很有幫助。

  • And then maybe Anurag, congratulations on the new role.

    然後也許是阿努拉格(Anurag),祝賀你擔任新角色。

  • Just wanted to maybe get a bit more color on 4Q, especially it looks like 1% organic growth very much on trend, but it looks like the 4Q margins come in about 20.5% at the high end, quite a big step down Q to Q. I just want to make sure that's the right math.

    只是想在第四季獲得更多的色彩,尤其是看起來1% 的有機成長非常符合趨勢,但看起來第四季的利潤率在高端約為20.5%,比上一季下降了相當大的一步我只是想確保這是正確的數學。

  • And any below-line color would be helpful.

    任何線下顏色都會有幫助。

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thanks a lot, Nigel.

    非常感謝,奈傑爾。

  • I think you covered it.

    我認為你涵蓋了它。

  • The Q4 margins are pretty much in line with what we expected.

    第四季的利潤率與我們的預期基本一致。

  • Sequentially, Q4 has been lighter than Q3 margins by about 300 to 350 basis points due to seasonality, which translates into lower sequential revenue of about $200 million, lower under absorption in the factories due to shutdowns, inventory management and timing of cost and investments.

    由於季節性因素,第四季的利潤率比第三季低約300 至350 個基點,這意味著連續收入減少約2 億美元,由於工廠停工、庫存管理以及成本和投資的時間安排,吸收率較低。

  • So overall, it's pretty much in line with what we expected.

    所以總的來說,它與我們的預期非常一致。

  • But if you kind of take a step back, we raised the bottom end of the guide by $0.20; at the midpoint by $0.10 and that is largely because of the focus on productivity.

    但如果您退後一步,我們將指南的底端提高了 0.20 美元;中間值提高了 0.10 美元,這主要是因為對生產力的關注。

  • We've seen good -- really good progress on that.

    我們已經看到這方面取得了很好的進展。

  • Plus the share -- benefits of share repo and the higher cash flow generation, which is leading to a higher interest income or lower net interest expense.

    再加上股票——股票回購的好處和更高的現金流產生,這會導致更高的利息收入或更低的淨利息支出。

  • So putting all of that together, making progress across all these areas, and Q4 pretty much in line.

    因此,將所有這些放在一起,在所有這些領域取得進展,第四季度幾乎是一致的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

    Jeff Sprague,垂直研究夥伴。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • Welcome aboard, Anurag.

    歡迎登機,阿努拉格。

  • I just wanted to come back a little bit in the neighborhood of some of these earlier questions.

    我只是想稍微回顧一下之前的一些問題。

  • Predominantly, I just want to get a sense of the fact we're kind of at the tailend of the prior restructuring.

    主要是,我只是想了解我們正處於先前重組的尾聲這一事實。

  • I think you did $165 million of spending in the first half and had something like $110 million to go in the second half.

    我認為上半年支出為 1.65 億美元,下半年支出約為 1.1 億美元。

  • So I'm trying to get a sense if that is still on track.

    所以我想了解這是否仍在正軌上。

  • And then, Bill, of these very numerous and granular things that you're laying out here, are we seeing much benefit from that in 2024?

    然後,比爾,在您在這裡列出的這些數量眾多且細緻的事情中,我們在 2024 年是否能從中看到很多好處?

  • Or is this really sort of laying the groundwork for 2025, and a lot of the margin expansion in 2024 is really the underlying prior restructuring plan.

    或者這真的是在為 2025 年奠定基礎嗎?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Jeff, it's good questions.

    傑夫,這是個好問題。

  • I mean, first, on the restructuring, we are on track.

    我的意思是,首先,在重組方面,我們已步入正軌。

  • Your numbers are right, $165 million in the front half and about $110 million or so in the back half of the guidance, so $275 million for the year.

    你的數字是正確的,指導的前半部分為 1.65 億美元,後半部分約為 1.1 億美元左右,所以今年為 2.75 億美元。

  • That's about where we're at.

    這就是我們現在的處境。

  • And there's a little bit more that will tail into next year to complete the program.

    明年還要完成更多工作才能完成該計劃。

  • And yeah, some of the gross margin and net margin improvements this year coming from restructuring, they're coming from a lot of productivity programs that have been in flight, some are ramping up and have more focus and effort in the last five or six months.

    是的,今年的毛利率和淨利潤率的一些改善來自重組,它們來自許多已經實施的生產力計劃,有些正在加速,並且在過去五六年裡更加關注和努力幾個月。

  • But a lot of these things are going to be realized over time.

    但隨著時間的推移,其中許多事情都會被實現。

  • This is a football metaphor, it's couple of yards and a pilot dust in a lot of ways to get ground game going on operational excellence.

    這是一個足球比喻,它是幾碼和飛行員在許多方面的灰塵,讓地面比賽繼續卓越運作。

  • It's a multi-quarter, multiyear journey.

    這是一個跨季度、跨年的旅程。

  • So the way I look at this, I think we're still, Jeff, in the early innings of becoming operationally excellent.

    因此,從我的角度來看,傑夫,我認為我們仍處於卓越營運的早期階段。

  • And I think the bulk of the opportunities are ahead of us, which is why I think as I look out the next one, two, three years, we should continue to see margin growth coming out of a lot of what's happening across our factory network.

    我認為大部分機會就在我們面前,這就是為什麼我認為,當我展望未來一年、兩年、三年時,我們應該繼續看到我們工廠網路中發生的許多事情帶來利潤成長。

  • There's a lot of levers to pull there's no big winners, no big hitters here that drive a big onetimer in a particular quarter, but it's getting better at all of these things every quarter, quarter after quarter, and then extending that sort of philosophy on operational excellence across the rest of the enterprise.

    有很多槓桿可以拉動,沒有大贏家,沒有大人物在特定季度推動大單,但每個季度、每個季度在所有這些事情上都在進步,然後將這種理念延伸到企業其他部門的卓越運營。

  • There's no reason why being good and reducing waste and improving throughput doesn't extend to how we run R&D, how you run a legal function, HR function, finance.

    做好事、減少浪費和提高吞吐量沒有理由不延伸到我們如何運作研發、如何運作法律職能、人力資源職能和財務。

  • And I think when you do it across the whole enterprise, you really start to become a much better company.

    我認為,當你在整個企業中這樣做時,你真的開始成為一家更好的公司。

  • And I think between now and then, we've got a lot of room to go and a lot of opportunity ahead of us.

    我認為從現在到那時,我們還有很大的發展空間,前面還有很多機會。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Understood.

    明白了。

  • And then just thinking about kind of the capital deployment question, you stepped up on buyback a bit in the quarter in spite of writing a sizable liability check.

    然後,只要考慮一下資本部署問題,儘管您寫了一筆相當大的責任支票,但您在本季度還是加大了回購力度。

  • How should we think about just managing kind of the outflow of cash on repo and/or dividend against the backdrop of sort of the schedule of liability payments?

    在債務支付時間表的背景下,我們應該如何考慮管理回購和/或股利的現金流出?

  • I mean maybe it's kind of a question about what's the comfort level on minimum cash or something like that as you're operating going forward?

    我的意思是,也許這是一個關於最低現金或類似的東西在你未來運營中的舒適度是多少的問題?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • So I'll start, and this is Jeff, and I'll turn it over to Anurag, as the new CFO to offer his thoughts because I know he's been putting a lot of time on this.

    所以我要開始了,這是傑夫,我會將其轉交給新任財務長阿努拉格,以提供他的想法,因為我知道他在這方面投入了大量時間。

  • But yeah, I mean, we did step up here in Q3 on repurchases.

    但是,是的,我的意思是,我們確實在第三季加強了回購。

  • It's at about $700 million.

    大約是7億美元。

  • It's $1.1 billion year-to-date.

    今年迄今已達 11 億美元。

  • Look, we're generating good cash flow.

    看,我們正在產生良好的現金流。

  • We don't see, on the horizon going out through next year, big liability payments that aren't already on our balance sheet.

    我們預計明年不會有尚未出現在我們資產負債表上的巨額負債付款。

  • So we've got an opportunity to deploy capital.

    所以我們有機會部署資本。

  • I think we were smart in doing that here in Q3.

    我認為我們在第三季這樣做是明智的。

  • We've got capacity.

    我們有能力。

  • We ended Q3 with a pretty hefty cash balance.

    我們在第三季結束時擁有相當可觀的現金餘額。

  • Our leverage ratios remain pretty attractive.

    我們的槓桿率仍然相當有吸引力。

  • We've got an open authorization from the Board.

    我們已獲得董事會的公開授權。

  • So look, we took advantage of that here in the third quarter.

    所以看,我們在第三季就利用了這一點。

  • We've got more capacity to do more.

    我們有更多的能力去做更多的事情。

  • And so I feel pretty good about where we stand today.

    所以我對我們今天的處境感到非常滿意。

  • But maybe Anurag, as the new CFO, can comment on his thoughts on just the strength of the balance sheet.

    但也許阿努拉格作為新任財務官,可以就他對資產負債表實力的想法發表評論。

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Jeff, I really believe that our capital structure is actually solid from a cash balance, leverage, cash flow generation and optionality perspective, which allows the optimal capital deployment and allocation.

    傑夫,我真的相信,從現金餘額、槓桿、現金流產生和選擇性的角度來看,我們的資本結構實際上是穩固的,這可以實現最佳的資本部署和分配。

  • As Bill mentioned, we have a very hefty -- a good cash balance.

    正如比爾所提到的,我們有大量的現金餘額。

  • We ended the third quarter at $7.3 billion, which is more than 2 times of the working capital requirements of the business.

    截至第三季末,我們的營收為 73 億美元,是公司營運資金需求的兩倍多。

  • On leverage, it was a net leverage of 0.8 times at the end of the third quarter and more importantly, maintaining a strong investment grade rating with ratings of A3 or A minus.

    槓桿方面,第三季末的淨槓桿率為0.8倍,更重要的是,維持了A3或A-的強勁投資評級。

  • And as we've seen through the quarter and the course of the year, the cash flow generation has been robust.

    正如我們在本季和全年所看到的,現金流的產生一直很強勁。

  • For the first nine months, we generated $3.5 billion of cash flow and that's after investing $1.7 billion in R&D and CapEx.

    前 9 個月,我們產生了 35 億美元的現金流,這是在研發和資本支出上投資 17 億美元之後的結果。

  • And we do expect in years to come the cap -- as earnings grow, we make progress in working capital, especially in the area of inventory, this will increase our cash flow and keep the conversion higher than 100%.

    我們確實預計幾年後就會達到上限——隨著盈利的增長,我們在營運資本方面取得進展,特別是在庫存領域,這將增加我們的現金流並使轉換率保持在 100% 以上。

  • Also, we have optionality in terms of the 19.9% stake in Solventum and any other future portfolio reshaping we do.

    此外,我們還可以選擇持有 Solventum 19.9% 的股份以及我們所做的任何其他未來投資組合重塑。

  • So putting all of that together, it's a strong capital structure.

    因此,將所有這些放在一起,就形成了一個強大的資本結構。

  • We have optionality, flexibility to invest in the business to drive growth, and also to return capital to shareholders.

    我們擁有選擇性、靈活性來投資業務以推動成長,並向股東返還資本。

  • So that's an active discussion we're having and we'll probably come more about it, talk more about it over the next few months.

    所以這是我們正在進行的積極討論,我們可能會在接下來的幾個月裡更多地討論它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

    朱利安米切爾,巴克萊銀行。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • Good morning and welcome, Anurag.

    早安,歡迎光臨,阿努拉格。

  • Maybe, Bill, a lot of very good color on the -- some specific sort of tools around driving operational excellence.

    比爾,也許,關於推動卓越營運的一些特定類型的工具有很多非常好的色彩。

  • But maybe trying to tie it together, I think at a conference for about 6 weeks ago or so, you talked about getting gross margins for 3M into the high 40s.

    但也許試圖將其結合在一起,我想在大約 6 週前的一次會議上,您談到了將 3M 的毛利率提高到 40 左右。

  • Right now, you're sort of 42-ish or so rate, including some charges.

    現在,你的費率大約是 42 左右,包括一些費用。

  • So is the right way to think about the medium term, maybe sort of 400 or 500 points of gross margin uplift on the sort of total enterprise level?

    那麼,考慮中期的正確方法是,也許在企業總體水平上提高 400 或 500 個點的毛利率?

  • And then operating expense inclusive of SG&A and R&D, that's sort of staying relatively stable in the low 20s as a share of sales as you sort of squeeze out more efficiency and returns from the R&D?

    然後,包括 SG&A 和研發在內的營運費用,當你從研發中擠出更多的效率和回報時,它佔銷售額的比例是否保持在 20 左右的相對穩定?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • So Julien, it's a good question.

    朱利安,這是一個很好的問題。

  • We are running kind of in the low to mid-40s right now and gross margin in the 43%, 44% range, plus or minus.

    我們現在的營運水準在 40 多歲左右,毛利率在 43%、44% 左右,上下浮動。

  • There are points in time in the past where we were high 40s.

    過去有些時候我們已經40多歲了。

  • That's excluding healthcare.

    這不包括醫療保健。

  • So in our -- the way we have our business structure today, it's certainly achievable.

    因此,按照我們今天的業務結構方式,這當然是可以實現的。

  • As I laid out sort of the math there and earlier in this conversation, $13 billion worth of cost of goods.

    正如我在本次對話早些時候所闡述的那樣,商品成本價值 130 億美元。

  • If we do 2% net productivity, it's more or less $260 million.

    如果我們計算 2% 的淨生產率,則大約為 2.6 億美元。

  • If we did it every year, it's sort of a point a year of gross margin.

    如果我們每年都這樣做,那麼每年的毛利率就相當於一個點。

  • Of course, there's lots of dynamics here.

    當然,這裡有很多動態。

  • You've got mix happening in the business.

    業務中存在混合現象。

  • You have new products coming in.

    您有新產品上市。

  • We've got kind of -- as next year, middle of next year as we exit PFAS manufacturing, you have some under-absorbed costs within those factories we've got to take care of.

    我們有這樣的情況——明年、明年年中,當我們退出 PFAS 生產時,我們必須照顧那些工廠內的一些未充分吸收的成本。

  • Eventually, Solventum is going to move some of their production away or in the TSAs will wind down.

    最終,Solventum 將把部分生產轉移出去,或者 TSA 中的生產將逐漸減少。

  • We've got to absorb that.

    我們必須吸收這一點。

  • So there's going to be lots of puts and takes.

    所以將會有很多的投入和採取。

  • So it won't be a linear journey over the next number of years, a growing gross margin.

    因此,未來幾年毛利率的成長不會是線性的。

  • But I do see that that's a big focus of ours.

    但我確實看到這是我們的重點。

  • We've got to be really pushing that hard to drive gross margin improvement over time.

    我們必須真正努力推動毛利率隨著時間的推移而提高。

  • Our R&D level is about 4.3%, 4.4%.

    我們的研發水準大概是4.3%、4.4%。

  • I mean it could drift up, could drift down a little bit in the 10s of basis points.

    我的意思是它可能會上升,也可能會在數十個基點內略微下降。

  • It's not in -- or tens of basis points, it's not a big mover.

    它不是一個或幾十個基點,它不是一個大的推動力。

  • SG&A could see some leverage over time just based on volume.

    隨著時間的推移,SG&A 可能會根據交易量發揮一定的槓桿作用。

  • But I think the bigger driver in the future is going to be coming out of gross margin.

    但我認為未來更大的推動力將來自毛利率。

  • And I remind you, I'm focusing on growth and margin expansion for sure, working the pedals across both of them.

    我提醒你,我肯定會專注於成長和利潤擴張,並在這兩個方面發揮作用。

  • But as I step back, driving growth is also a margin driver because of a high drop through we get on incremental volume.

    但當我退後一步時,推動成長也是利潤驅動因素,因為我們的增量數量大幅下降。

  • So that's kind of the way I see the future playing itself out.

    這就是我對未來發展的看法。

  • I don't think today, I'll get much more specific.

    我想今天我不會說得更具體。

  • We'll lay this out a little bit more clearly to investors as we turn the corner in '25, and come back and host an Investor Day towards the end of February.

    當我們在 25 年度過難關時,我們將向投資者更清楚地闡述這一點,並在 2 月底回來舉辦投資者日活動。

  • I think we'll have a little more clarity in laying this out a lot more clearly to investors at that point.

    我認為屆時我們會更清楚地向投資者闡述這一點。

  • But anyway, that's the math as I see it today, Julian.

    但無論如何,這就是我今天看到的數學,朱利安。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And just circling back on your top line comment just there, so you're moving at about sort of a point of organic growth through the second half year-on-year.

    回到你最上面的評論,所以你在下半年正處於同比有機增長的點。

  • Just wondered how you're looking at the overall sort of demand environment into next year.

    只是想知道您如何看待明年的整體需求環境。

  • And when we think about the netting off of NPIs picking up versus your pruning efforts about 100 points this year, how are you thinking about the net of those two items over the next 12 months?

    當我們考慮非營利組織的淨額回升與您今年的修剪努力相比增加約 100 點時,您如何看待未來 12 個月這兩項的淨額?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Look, 1% organic this year isn't what we should be aspiring to.

    看,今年 1% 的有機率並不是我們該追求的目標。

  • Again, it's the middle of the range we set a couple of months ago.

    同樣,這是我們幾個月前設定的範圍的中間值。

  • It's traveling in the order of where the market happens to be.

    它按照市場所在的順序移動。

  • IPI is running around 1%, 1.1%.

    IPI 運作在 1%、1.1% 左右。

  • It's 1.2% for the year.

    今年是1.2%。

  • Steps up a little bit going into next year.

    進入明年,會稍微進步一點。

  • GDP in the 2.5%, 2.7% range.

    GDP在2.5%、2.7%區間。

  • Again, that's kind of in the same on next year.

    同樣,明年的情況也是如此。

  • So it's low single digits.

    所以它是低個位數。

  • And I think overall, we're performing kind of in line with that, including auto build, semis, electronics.

    我認為整體而言,我們的表現與此一致,包括汽車製造、半成品、電子產品。

  • All this consumer, all that together, trending in line.

    所有這些消費者,所有這些一起,趨勢一致。

  • I look at NPI, and as that matures, early good signals were up 10% on numbers of launches this year over last.

    我觀察了 NPI,隨著 NPI 的成熟,早期良好的訊號今年的發布數量比去年增加了 10%。

  • We see that rate accelerating 25%.

    我們看到這一速度加快了 25%。

  • But stepping back, we're still in order of magnitude less than we were at the peak days in terms of how many products we've launched in the marketplace.

    但退一步來說,就我們在市場上推出的產品數量而言,我們的數量級仍然低於高峰時期。

  • So we've got to get that R&D engine moving again.

    因此,我們必須再次啟動研發引擎。

  • That is going to be essential to improving on our growth rate and starting to hit and then outgrow the market.

    這對於提高我們的成長率並開始衝擊並超越市場至關重要。

  • That will start to bear fruit into next year, maybe the end of next year and into '26.

    這將在明年開始結出碩果,也許是明年年底,直到 26 年。

  • And that's why it took a lot of care last time and earlier to say we've got to get better at selling what we have on the market today, which means we got to work our sales force and all those pieces of it.

    這就是為什麼上次和早些時候我們非常小心地說我們必須更好地銷售今天市場上的產品,這意味著我們必須調動我們的銷售團隊和所有這些部分。

  • Do we have gaps in our sales force coverage?

    我們的銷售人員涵蓋範圍是否有差距?

  • Do we have the right incentive structures?

    我們有正確的激勵結構嗎?

  • The right training?

    正確的訓練?

  • The right people in the field, the right distributors?

    該領域合適的人員、合適的經銷商?

  • Are we pricing correctly?

    我們的定價正確嗎?

  • Do we have cross-sell opportunities?

    我們有交叉銷售機會嗎?

  • All of these things will drive growth.

    所有這些都將推動成長。

  • And I think we've got to pull all those levers.

    我認為我們必須拉動所有這些槓桿。

  • And it's why I came back earlier on in this conversation.

    這就是為什麼我早些時候回來參加這次談話的原因。

  • It really doubled down on OTIF because we are losing business if we're not delivering it on time and full to customers.

    這對 OTIF 來說確實是雙倍的損失,因為如果我們無法按時、完整地向客戶交付產品,我們就會失去業務。

  • We know it.

    我們知道。

  • We see it every single day.

    我們每天都會看到它。

  • So that is the nearest-term lever we can pull is getting better and on time and full.

    因此,我們可以拉動的最近期限槓桿正在變得更好、按時、充分。

  • And as I step back and you put all that stuff together and turn the quarter into '25, we should see better growth.

    當我退後一步,將所有這些內容放在一起並將本季變成 25 世紀時,我們應該會看到更好的成長。

  • That would be my expectation.

    這將是我的期望。

  • But -- it's not going to happen overnight.

    但是——這不會在一夜之間發生。

  • These efforts do take some time, and we'll lay this out a lot more clearly to investors as we turn the quarter into '25.

    這些努力確實需要一些時間,當我們進入 25 季時,我們將向投資者更清楚地闡述這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

    妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase),德意志銀行。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Maybe just a little bit more on some of the portfolio review comments you made at the beginning, Bill.

    比爾,也許只是對你在開始時提出的一些作品集審查意見進行更多的闡述。

  • I guess any thoughts on like what types of businesses could be considered noncore?

    我想知道什麼類型的企業可以被視為非核心企業?

  • And if there's anything chunky coming or if these are all kind of like smaller divisions or businesses that you're looking at?

    如果有什麼大的事情即將到來,或者這些都是你正在考慮的較小的部門或業務?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Nicole, thanks for the question.

    是的,妮可,謝謝你的提問。

  • Look, I mentioned last time, I did very purposely that we're going to take a fresh dispatch and look at the portfolio, as you would expect, I would do coming into this new company.

    聽著,我上次提到過,我非常有目的地這樣做,我們將採取新的調度並查看投資組合,正如您所期望的那樣,我將進入這家新公司。

  • But let me step back.

    但讓我退後一步。

  • I mean, the lens that I'm looking through is a strategic lens at the moment to think about the portfolio.

    我的意思是,我目前正在考慮的鏡頭是思考投資組合的策略鏡頭。

  • And it's really on where we can leverage technology and innovation to differentiate to win at the customer interface.

    這實際上取決於我們如何利用技術和創新來實現差異化,從而在客戶介面上獲勝。

  • When it came to 3M, it's very clear to me, very clear all those 6,000 people that have been here that technology is what differentiates 3M.

    當談到 3M 時,我非常清楚,所有在場的 6,000 名員工都非常清楚,技術是 3M 的獨特之處。

  • People join the company because of innovation.

    人們因為創新而加入公司。

  • So I'm really looking through a lens of can we leverage investments and the capabilities we have in material signing to technology to make something different versus competitors and solve a need that others can't.

    因此,我真的在審視我們是否可以利用投資和我們在技術材料簽名方面擁有的能力來做出與競爭對手不同的東西,並解決其他人無法解決的需求。

  • And that's the lens that I'm really looking at here.

    這就是我真正關注的鏡頭。

  • So we have a few businesses that are small.

    所以我們有一些小型企業。

  • If and when we transact on them, you won't notice it in the overall report.

    如果我們對它們進行交易,您不會在總體報告中註意到它。

  • There are a couple of points of revenue.

    有幾個收入點。

  • So it's relatively small, but it's a start.

    所以它相對較小,但它是一個開始。

  • It's the things that I thought were near term and the ones that we could take advantage of today.

    我認為這是近期的事情,也是我們今天可以利用的事情。

  • But our evaluation continues.

    但我們的評估仍在繼續。

  • Again, as I turn next year, we come up in front of investors I'm expecting that I'll be standing in there talking about a matrix, which has something looking like what parts of our portfolio perhaps don't fit to us over time.

    再次,當我明年到來時,我們會出現在投資者面前,我希望我會站在那裡談論一個矩陣,其中包含一些看起來像我們投資組合中的哪些部分可能不適合我們的內容。

  • And at the same time, it's not for today, but looking at what other things do belong with us that aren't currently owned by 3M.

    同時,這不是為了今天,而是看看還有哪些屬於我們但目前不屬於 3M 的東西。

  • So it's a pretty holistic assessment.

    所以這是一個非常全面的評估。

  • We're in the very, very early days, Nicole.

    我們還處於非常非常早期的階段,妮可。

  • But a couple of deals that we're pushing on right now, early stages, but it's the direction we want to head in over time.

    但我們現在正在推進一些處於早期階段的交易,但這是我們隨著時間的推移想要前進的方向。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • That's clear.

    很清楚。

  • And then maybe just on the business trends, what did you guys see in China in the quarter?

    然後也許只是就商業趨勢而言,你們在本季在中國看到了什麼?

  • And any thoughts on 3M's ability to benefit from stimulus activity happening there?

    對於 3M 從那裡發生的刺激活動中受益的能力有何想法?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • So China for us is a pretty good size market.

    所以中國對我們來說是一個相當大的市場。

  • It's about 10% of our sales.

    這大約占我們銷售額的10%。

  • Year-to-date, we're up about 11%, more or less, a little bit higher than that in the first half, a lot of it driven by automotive.

    今年迄今為止,我們成長了約 11%,或多或少,比上半年高一點,其中很大一部分是由汽車推動的。

  • Up mid-single digits here in the third quarter, pretty much in line with, I think, where the market is in China.

    第三季實現中個位數成長,我認為與中國市場的情況基本一致。

  • So we feel pretty good about what's happening there, ligand, a lot of it is driven by automotive.

    所以我們對那裡發生的事情感覺很好,配體,其中很多都是由汽車驅動的。

  • Roughly half of what we do in China is for export, export out of the country and roughly half stays within China.

    我們在中國所做的大約一半是出口,出口到國外,大約一半留在中國境內。

  • And both are performing reasonably well.

    兩者的表現都相當不錯。

  • We'll see as we get into next year, the outlook for the overall economy, we can read where the GDP happens to be forecast for next year.

    當我們進入明年時,我們會看到整體經濟的前景,我們可以看到明年的 GDP 預測。

  • But there's a lot of stimulus activity, a lot of conversations around geopolitical issues.

    但有許多刺激活動,有許多圍繞地緣政治議題的對話。

  • We'll see as we turn the corner where China is going to be.

    當我們拐過彎的時候,我們就會看到中國將走向何方。

  • But we're bullish on the economy there.

    但我們看好那裡的經濟。

  • We're bullish on our team there, our ability to compete.

    我們看好我們的團隊以及我們的競爭能力。

  • We have more than 5,000 people on the ground, 7 factories, and I think we have a good ability to be a strong participant over time in China.

    我們在當地有超過 5000 名員工,7 個工廠,我認為隨著時間的推移,我們有能力成為中國的強大參與者。

  • Bruce Jermeland Jermeland - SVP, IR

    Bruce Jermeland Jermeland - SVP, IR

  • Nicole, just to quickly clarify.

    妮可,我只是想快速澄清一下。

  • The strength has been in electronics in China, not automotive.

    中國的優勢在於電子業,而不是汽車業。

  • All in, we're up about 11% year-to-date.

    總而言之,今年迄今我們上漲了約 11%。

  • Ex-electronics, we're up roughly about 3% organically.

    不包括電子產品,我們的有機成長約為 3% 左右。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (technical difficulty) is open to

    (技術難度)開放給

  • --

    --

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Sorry, didn't come through very clearly.

    抱歉,沒說清楚。

  • Can you hear me now?

    現在你能聽到我說話嗎?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, we hear you.

    是的,我們聽到了。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Sorry about that.

    對此感到抱歉。

  • Anurag, thanks, congratulations and looking forward to working with you here.

    Anurag,謝謝、恭喜並期待與您合作。

  • Just wanted to delve into price a little bit more in this algorithm of productivity and gross margin.

    只是想在生產力和毛利率的演算法中進一步研究價格。

  • Where does price play into that?

    價格在哪裡發揮作用?

  • And are you expecting to get back to that kind of a positive margin price cost spread going forward?

    您是否期望未來能恢復到那種正的利潤價格成本價差?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, it's a good question.

    嗯,這是一個好問題。

  • I mean this year, we are seeing positive price.

    我的意思是今年,我們看到了積極的價格。

  • It's about half our organic growth, more or less, plus or minus 5% or thereabouts.

    這大約是我們有機成長的一半,或多或少,正負 5% 左右。

  • We are covering material inflation this year, it were back to where we were kind of pre-pandemic level is a little bit higher than that in -- during pandemic because, obviously, inflation was spiking there.

    今年我們正在報告物質通膨,它回到了大流行前的水平,比大流行期間的水平略高,因為顯然,那裡的通貨膨脹正在飆升。

  • But as I step back on this, we should get pricing, particularly as we drive new product introductions and bring differentiated products into the marketplace.

    但當我退一步討論這個問題時,我們應該獲得定價,特別是當我們推動新產品推出並將差異化產品推向市場時。

  • We do expect that.

    我們確實希望如此。

  • I see it in two pieces.

    我看到它分成兩部分。

  • I think one is we have an opportunity to get better at more surgical pricing, so pricing to volume generated.

    我認為其中之一是我們有機會在更多的手術定價方面做得更好,因此根據產生的數量進行定價。

  • I made a comment last time that we've got some opportunities to tie volume rebates, discounts, et cetera, to price.

    我上次發表評論說,我們有一些機會將數量回扣、折扣等與價格掛鉤。

  • And that's something that we're working very, very hard on, as well as tightening down on what we call gross to net and all the pieces between that, volume discounts, market development funds, rebates, those kinds of things, that could be quite substantial.

    這是我們正在非常非常努力地努力的事情,同時也收緊了我們所說的毛​​淨值以及其中的所有部分,批量折扣、市場開發基金、回扣,諸如此類的事情,這可能是相當可觀。

  • And I think we've just had a better opportunity to get pricing.

    我認為我們剛剛有了更好的定價機會。

  • But as I look forward into next year, we should continue to be able to cover at least the material cost inflation in our price.

    但當我展望明年時,我們應該能夠繼續至少在價格中彌補材料成本的上漲。

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And just to add to that, Steve, as Bill mentioned, our price should cover cost and inflation, for us -- inflation and the cost going forward.

    除此之外,史蒂夫,正如比爾所提到的,我們的價格應該涵蓋成本和通貨膨脹,對我們來說——通貨膨脹和未來的成本。

  • The 1 way to kind of think about the margin expansion moving forward, clearly, volume is the biggest driver for us in terms of operating leverage that we have, and the net productivity that we are driving.

    考慮未來利潤率擴張的第一種方法是,顯然,就我們擁有的營運槓桿和我們正在推動的淨生產力而言,銷售是我們最大的驅動力。

  • So volume in that productivity should be critical margin expansion drivers.

    因此,生產力的提高應該是利潤擴張的關鍵驅動因素。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • And that -- you view price cost as separate from that productivity, I would assume?

    我認為,您認為價格成本與生產力是分開的?

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, correct.

    是的,正確。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • In the bridge?

    在橋上?

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • So then I'm just wondering like if you got like good guys going your way and assuming like the economy doesn't like go to hell, what is the -- like R&D flat, you should get SG&A leverage.

    那我只是想知道,如果你有像好人一樣走自己的路,並假設經濟不喜歡陷入困境,那麼什麼是——比如研發單位,你應該獲得SG&A槓桿。

  • You're talking about this productivity, price cost is not a headwind, like what is the headwind to margins going forward?

    你談論的是這種生產力,價格成本不是一個逆風,例如未來利潤率的逆風是什麼?

  • Like, what's the negative?

    比如,有什麼負面影響?

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • So the negative is essentially inflation that we will see over there, which is a wage inflation moving forward.

    因此,負面影響本質上是我們將在那裡看到的通膨,即未來的薪資通膨。

  • But besides that, you shouldn't see any more, of course, FX is there, which we don't know which way that could move.

    但除此之外,你不應該再看到更多,當然,外匯就在那裡,我們不知道它會朝哪個方向移動。

  • But if you look at overall margin even for the year, right, it's basically four pieces.

    但如果你看看今年的整體利潤率,對吧,它基本上是四塊。

  • It's q quarter of volume, a quarter of the restructuring cost, that -- which came down lower compared to last year, it's a a quarter of the TSA reimbursement and a quarter of net productivity.

    這是銷售量的四分之一,重組成本的四分之一,與去年相比下降了,這是 TSA 報銷的四分之一和淨生產力的四分之一。

  • If you go into next year, there will be a little bit lower on the restructuring cost charges.

    如果進入明年,重組成本費用將會降低一些。

  • But again, it's going to be more volume and it's going to be more on the productivity side with the biggest headwind being on inflation and potentially FX.

    但同樣,交易量將會更大,生產力方面也會更大,最大的阻力來自通膨和潛在的外匯。

  • It depends which way it goes.

    這取決於它走哪條路。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Sorry, one last one.

    抱歉,最後一張。

  • How much is labor as a percentage of your cost again?

    勞動力佔您成本的百分比是多少?

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Labor as a percent of our cost is close to $10-ish billion.

    勞動力占我們成本的百分比接近 100 億美元。

  • Yes. $8 billion to $10 billion.

    是的。 80億至100億美元。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andy Kaplowitz, Citi.

    安迪‧卡普洛維茨,花旗銀行。

  • Andy Kaplowitz - Analyst

    Andy Kaplowitz - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone.

    大家早安。

  • Could you give us a little more color into your consumer business?

    能為我們介紹一下您的消費業務嗎?

  • I think you talked about that it's getting a bit better.

    我想你說過情況正在好轉。

  • Could you elaborate on what you're seeing there is I think that business tends to be first in first out in historical cycles.

    您能詳細說明一下您所看到的情況嗎?

  • And I know you're focused on pricing in that segment, maybe that segment could be the most competitive in terms of pricing.

    我知道您專注於該細分市場的定價,也許該細分市場在定價方面可能是最具競爭力的。

  • Can you make the pricing improvement you need in that segment?

    您能否在該細分市場中實現所需的定價改善?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • So on consumer, we were down about 3% in the first half, down about 70 basis points in the third quarter.

    因此,在消費者方面,上半年我們下降了約 3%,第三季下降了約 70 個基點。

  • But keep in mind, it has about 230 basis points of headwind associated with some of the portfolio prioritization efforts that the team is working on.

    但請記住,與團隊正在進行的一些投資組合優先工作相關的阻力大約為 230 個基點。

  • And if you go back Q1 to Q2 to Q3 and then head into Q4, it's becoming less negative in terms of organic growth and it's trending to perhaps be positive in the fourth quarter.

    如果你回顧第一季、第二季、第三季度,然後進入第四季度,就有機成長而言,負面因素正在減少,並且在第四季度可能會呈正成長趨勢。

  • For the full year, down low single digits.

    全年來看,下降了低個位數。

  • For the overall -- it's mostly a USAC business, a USAC retail business.

    總體而言,這主要是 USAC 業務、USAC 零售業務。

  • So USAC retail sales is down about 50 basis points for the year, down about 80 basis points.

    因此,今年 USAC 零售額下降了約 50 個基點,下降了約 80 個基點。

  • So it's sort of trending in that -- in the line with where USAC retail sales happen to be.

    所以這有點趨勢——與 USAC 零售額的情況一致。

  • When you look at the parts of the portfolio in the quarter, we had pretty good growth in our Command strips, home improvement, Command strip business.

    當您查看本季度投資組合的各個部分時,我們在命令條、家居裝修、命令條業務方面取得了相當好的成長。

  • That was up is partly due to some new product introductions in that space and that they're performing pretty well there.

    這一增長的部分原因是該領域推出了一些新產品,並且它們在那裡表現得非常好。

  • The other the parts of the portfolio were a bit weaker were flat to down.

    投資組合的其他部分稍微弱一些,持平或下跌。

  • So they offset the positive trend in home improvement.

    因此它們抵消了家居裝修的正面趨勢。

  • But we see good improvement trends going into the fourth quarter.

    但我們看到第四季出現良好的改善趨勢。

  • It all depends upon what happens in holiday season as we get through the next couple of months.

    這一切都取決於接下來幾個月假期會發生什麼。

  • But the trend line is moving up in terms of its organic growth rate.

    但就其有機成長率而言,趨勢線正在上升。

  • Andy Kaplowitz - Analyst

    Andy Kaplowitz - Analyst

  • Helpful.

    有幫助。

  • And then, Bill, maybe just stepping back.

    然後,比爾,也許只是退後一步。

  • You've talked a lot about growth through innovation.

    您談了很多關於透過創新實現成長的話題。

  • But how are you pushing 3M as to focus their innovation on maybe what I would call the right markets because it strikes me that there are just a few big global markets that are driving growth right now.

    但是,您如何推動 3M 將其創新重點放在我所說的正確市場上,因為讓我印象深刻的是,目前只有少數大型全球市場正在推動成長。

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • So Yeah, we're spending a lot of time thinking about where we spend our precious $1 billion in R&D for sure, and making sure it's going after the right areas as part of our overall governance process and how we're developing our strategic plan to focus on those markets where we have a right to win, we can actually earn value.

    所以,是的,我們花了很多時間思考我們將寶貴的 10 億美元用於研發,並確保它在正確的領域作為我們整體治理流程的一部分以及我們如何制定我們的戰略計劃專注於那些我們有權利獲勝的市場,我們實際上可以賺取價值。

  • We have a strong return on investment in the spaces.

    我們在這些領域的投資報酬率很高。

  • And look, the team is pushing on this, and this is a big focus of mine, a big focus of the team.

    看,團隊正在推動這一點,這是我的一個重點,也是團隊的一個重點。

  • So more to come on that, but it's certainly part of the lens and the calculus that we're looking at and where we're spending the -- or investing our R&D dollars.

    關於這一點還有更多內容,但這肯定是我們正在研究的鏡頭和微積分的一部分,也是我們花費或投資研發資金的地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brett Linzey, Mizuho Securities.

    布雷特‧林澤 (Brett Linzey),瑞穗證券。

  • Brett Linzey - Analyst

    Brett Linzey - Analyst

  • Good morning, all, and welcome to Arnurag.

    大家早安,歡迎來到阿努拉格。

  • Just wanted to come back to the rationalization efforts.

    只是想回到合理化的努力上來。

  • So I think it was a point of drag in the quarter, 1 point for the year, perhaps just isolating rationalization and leaving out some of the new product launches and other growth.

    因此,我認為這是本季的拖累點,全年拖累了 1 個點,也許只是孤立了合理化,而忽略了一些新產品的發布和其他增長。

  • Should we be thinking about another point of headwind next year as you continue the simplification efforts?

    當您繼續進行簡化工作時,我們是否應該考慮明年的另一個逆風?

  • Or is it something less as we proceed and advance forward here?

    或者當我們繼續前進時,它會變得更少嗎?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • No, Brett, it should be declined substantially going into next year.

    不,布雷特,明年應該大幅拒絕。

  • I mean we'll lap the year.

    我的意思是我們將度過這一年。

  • So there'll be a little bit of drag on effect for things that happen in the course of '24.

    因此,24 年期間發生的事情將會產生一些影響。

  • But we shouldn't see significant headwind from portfolio or geographic prioritization going into next year.

    但我們不應該看到明年投資組合或地理優先順序出現重大阻力。

  • Our intention -- Anurag and I haven't talked about this, but our intention would likely be to not speak so much about that in our '25 results.

    我們的意圖 - 阿努拉格和我還沒有談論過這一點,但我們的意圖可能是在我們的 25 年結果中不要過多談論這一點。

  • It's something that really people do, companies do, just at a normal practice as you continue to look at your portfolio.

    這是人們、公司確實在做的事情,只是在你繼續審視你的投資組合時的正常做法。

  • And you add something, you take some things out, you replace things.

    你添加一些東西,刪除一些東西,替換一些東西。

  • And I would expect that going into next year, to be less part of our conversation than this year.

    我預計明年我們的談話內容會比今年少。

  • Brett Linzey - Analyst

    Brett Linzey - Analyst

  • All right.

    好的。

  • Makes sense.

    有道理。

  • And then just a follow-up on NPA the launching of the new products, 10% growth next year.

    然後只是NPA的後續新產品的推出,明年成長10%。

  • Just wanted to better understand the associated costs and where those introductions are aimed at the segment level.

    只是想更了解相關成本以及這些介紹是針對細分市場的。

  • Should we be thinking of a comensurate level of R&D step-up?

    我們是否應該考慮相應水準的研發升級?

  • Or are you able to achieve this with repurposing the spending base?

    或者您能夠透過重新調整支出基礎來實現這一目標?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • No.

    不。

  • So it's within the existing spending base.

    所以它在現有的支出基礎之內。

  • As we go into '25, we'll come back and talk more about where we see R&D.

    當我們進入 25 世紀時,我們將回來更多地討論我們在哪裡看待研發。

  • But a couple of things are happening.

    但有一些事情正在發生。

  • One is just it's a shift within where we spend our R&D really comes in kind of three buckets.

    一是我們研發支出的轉變其實分為三個面向。

  • I mean, it's about a third that goes into corporate research, longer-term horizon things, basic technologies, there's kind of a a third that's incremental line extensions, new product introductions.

    我的意思是,大約三分之一用於企業研究、長期發展、基礎技術,還有三分之一用於增量產品線擴展、新產品推出。

  • There's a a third that's going after cost reduction, fixes, all those kinds of things.

    還有三分之一致力於降低成本、修復等等。

  • So there's going to be some shift that's going on between those pieces.

    因此,這些部分之間將會發生一些轉變。

  • That middle bucket used to be around 40%, it dropped below 30.

    中間的部分曾經是 40% 左右,現在已經跌破了 30%。

  • That piece is coming back up.

    那件作品又回來了。

  • It's now above -- it's now around a third on 32%, 33%.

    現在已經高於——現在大約是三分之一,即 32%、33%。

  • But that middle bucket on new products, new product line extensions is where we're shifting money to drive new product reductions.

    但新產品、新產品線擴展的中間部分是我們轉移資金以推動新產品減少的地方。

  • To be clear, the number of new product introductions this year in '24 is up 10% over last year, and we expect that that 10% will accelerate in 2025 through those pieces I just mentioned a couple of minutes ago.

    需要明確的是,今年 24 世紀推出的新產品數量比去年增加了 10%,我們預計透過我幾分鐘前剛剛提到的那些產品,這一數字將在 2025 年加速增加 10%。

  • A large part of our investment in new product introduction is going to be mostly in our safety and industrial business and transportation and electronics business.

    我們在新產品引進方面的投資很大一部分將主要用於我們的安全和工業業務以及運輸和電子業務。

  • There is some that goes into the consumer business.

    有一些進入消費者業務。

  • You'll see more going into next year.

    明年你會看到更多。

  • We see more introductions coming out of new product investment.

    我們看到更多新產品投資的推出。

  • But the lion's part of it is really in those other two businesses, and that's where a lot of the launches that I talked about a minute ago were occurring.

    但其中最重要的部分實際上是在其他兩項業務中,這就是我一分鐘前談到的許多發布活動發生的地方。

  • We'll share more information as we get into next year, not just the numbers, but where we're investing, what verticals we're investing, where we're going to prioritize our spend in the future and why, why we think we can win, and we'll lay that out very clearly with investors as we get into February.

    進入明年,我們將分享更多信息,不僅僅是數字,還有我們在哪裡投資、我們在哪些垂直領域投資、我們未來將在哪些方面優先考慮支出以及為什麼、為什麼我們認為我們可以獲勝,進入二月份時我們將向投資人非常清楚地闡述這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo Securities.

    喬‧奧迪 (Joe O'Dea),富國銀行證券公司。

  • Joe O'Dea - Analyst

    Joe O'Dea - Analyst

  • I wonder if you can elaborate a little bit more on the operating equipment efficiency comments you made.

    我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您對操作設備效率的評論。

  • And when you talked about 50% utilization, well short of best-in-class just in terms of any clarification of what kind of best-in-class would look like as well as what your targets are over, call it, the next 6 or 12 months there?

    當您談到 50% 的利用率時,就任何同類最佳的外觀以及您的目標結束的澄清而言,遠低於一流的水平,稱之為下一個 6還是那裡12個月?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Look, operating equipment efficiency is really -- it's a fundamental metric.

    看,操作設備效率確實是基本指標。

  • Companies that do manufacturing, have implemented this over many, many years.

    從事製造的公司已經實施了很多很多年。

  • It's a relatively new concept.

    這是一個相對較新的概念。

  • We have 38 large factories, it's about 75% of our volume.

    我們有38家大型工廠,約占我們產量的75%。

  • And about 140, about 80% of the assets that are in those factories, we implemented OEE.

    我們對這些工廠中大約 140 家(大約 80% 的資產)實施了 OEE。

  • I mean you can implement it, but actually build it into the way the machine runs, it takes some time to do that.

    我的意思是你可以實現它,但實際上將其建置到機器運行的方式中,需要一些時間才能做到這一點。

  • So it's not a manual process, that's actually built into the way the machine runs.

    所以這不是一個手動過程,它實際上是內建在機器的運作方式中。

  • And look, if it's running 50%.

    看看它是否運行了 50%。

  • The reality is we should be running -- best-in-class companies are in 80% range or north of that.

    現實情況是我們應該繼續營運——一流的公司都在 80% 的範圍內或更高。

  • So we're well short of that.

    所以我們還很缺乏這一點。

  • So the implication of this is that, first off, what's driving that underutilization?

    因此,這意味著,首先,是什麼導致了利用率不足?

  • Is it a lot of changeovers because that's -- it's idled capacity?

    是否需要進行大量轉換,因為產能閒置?

  • Is it poor maintenance practices and the machine is down?

    是否是維護不當導致機器停機?

  • Is it volume or capacity?

    是體積還是容量?

  • But it's sort of fundamental to figuring out how do you handle surge volume.

    但這對於弄清楚如何處理激增的交易量來說是至關重要的。

  • And longer term, once that metric gets matured, and we come back and talk about a more holistic look at our network and the complexity we have in our network, it will allow us to say, well, where can we consolidate sites or cells or assets in our factories based on the utilization that happens to be out there.

    從長遠來看,一旦該指標成熟,我們回來討論更全面地審視我們的網路以及網路的複雜性,這將使我們能夠說,我們可以在哪裡整合站點或單元或我們工廠的資產取決於那裡的利用率。

  • It's also more than theoretically possible, you were spending a capital for a capacity expansion, yet, we're running 50% utilization on certain assets.

    這也超出了理論上的可能性,您花了資本來擴大產能,但我們對某些資產的利用率達到了 50%。

  • So longer term, we should also be looking at this as a way to make sure we're spending capital in the right places.

    因此,從長遠來看,我們也應該將此視為確保我們將資本花在正確的地方的一種方式。

  • So it's really fundamental.

    所以真的很基礎。

  • We're started.

    我們開始了。

  • We've got a metric -- measure for where we've been year-to-date.

    我們有一個指標——衡量我們今年迄今為止的表現。

  • And it will mature as we get into '25, probably it will be 80% done by as you get to the second quarter of next year.

    當我們進入 25 世紀時,它就會成熟,到明年第二季度,可能已經完成 80%。

  • But it's a fundamental way of looking at how you're performing.

    但這是衡量您表現的基本方法。

  • And I'm really proud of what the team has done in the last couple of months to drive that into our factories.

    我對團隊在過去幾個月中將其推廣到我們工廠所做的工作感到非常自豪。

  • Joe O'Dea - Analyst

    Joe O'Dea - Analyst

  • And then also just wanted to ask on electronics demand trends.

    然後也只是想詢問電子產品需求趨勢。

  • I think you commented that organically up high single digits.

    我認為你的評論有機地提高了個位數。

  • So earlier in the year, some spec in tailwinds, but it seems like still growing at a good clip as you move later into the year.

    因此,今年早些時候,一些規格出現了順風車,但隨著進入今年晚些時候,它似乎仍在以良好的速度增長。

  • And so any color there whether what you're seeing is trending with the market, if you're seeing any sort of share gain or taking advantage of pricing opportunities out there with the electronics growth.

    因此,無論您看到的是市場趨勢,還是看到任何形式的份額成長或利用電子產品成長帶來的定價機會,任何顏色都可以。

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • So electronics was up pretty good.

    所以電子產品的表現相當不錯。

  • Year-to-date in the quarter.

    本季至今。

  • We did have some back-end wins.

    我們確實取得了一些後端勝利。

  • I think we're growing at slightly higher than the market.

    我認為我們的成長速度略高於市場。

  • We're watching pretty carefully what happens in the holiday trends here and what happens in the fourth quarter going into next year.

    我們正在非常仔細地關注這裡的假期趨勢以及明年第四季的情況。

  • So we're pretty pleased with where we've been so far.

    因此,我們對迄今為止所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

  • It comes from a lot of the sophisticated films that we've created that are going into a variety of electronic devices.

    它來自我們製作的許多複雜的薄膜,這些薄膜將用於各種電子設備。

  • They're very sophisticated things, multilayer optical films, optical adhesives, things that allow LCDs to look like OLEDs in terms of screen performance.

    它們是非常複雜的東西,多層光學薄膜、光學黏合劑,這些東西使 LCD 在螢幕性能方面看起來像 OLED。

  • Gives you privacy and other things that you can then extend into the larger screens, larger displays in cars.

    為您提供隱私和其他功能,然後您可以將其擴展到更大的螢幕、汽車中的更大顯示器。

  • That's what drives our AutoE business.

    這就是我們 AutoE 業務的動力。

  • So it's a pretty important technology.

    所以這是一項非常重要的技術。

  • It's allowing us to perform well in electronics as a whole.

    它使我們能夠在整個電子領域表現良好。

  • So we like the trends.

    所以我們喜歡趨勢。

  • We're watching what happens in the holiday season, and we'll see what happens going into next year.

    我們正在關注假期期間會發生什麼,我們也會看看明年會發生什麼。

  • So doing pretty well, actually in semiconductors as well.

    所以做得很好,實際上在半導體領域也是如此。

  • It's -- we're growing way above the market.

    我們的成長速度遠高於市場水準。

  • That's been a pretty important trend for us this year, doing pretty well in data centers, not a big part of our business at the moment, but pretty pleased with that.

    這對我們來說是今年一個非常重要的趨勢,在資料中心方面做得很好,雖然目前還不是我們業務的重要組成部分,但我們對此感到非常滿意。

  • But specific to electronics, outgrowing the market, and it's because of the spec-in wins and technology we have.

    但具體到電子產品,其成長超過了市場,這是因為我們在規格方面的勝利和技術。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

    喬·里奇,高盛。

  • Joe Ritchie - Analyst

    Joe Ritchie - Analyst

  • Welcome, Anurag.

    歡迎,阿努拉格。

  • Bill, I think you mentioned earlier that you were honing in on redesigning your forecasting and demand planning across, I think, two of your businesses.

    比爾,我想你之前提到過,你正在努力重新設計你的兩個業務的預測和需求規劃。

  • I'm just curious like what are some kind of initial thoughts on improvements you think you can make?

    我只是好奇你認為可以做哪些改進的初步想法?

  • And then why not focus a little bit more holistically across the entire portfolio at this point?

    那麼此時為什麼不更全面地關注整個投資組合呢?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, this will eventually go across the entire portfolio.

    好吧,這最終將貫穿整個投資組合。

  • But like stepping back, we are sitting there where we're not delivering to where we want to be on-time and full to customers.

    但就像退後一步一樣,我們坐在那裡,我們沒有按時、完整地向客戶交付產品。

  • We're proud of where it's gotten to, but it's not where it needs to be.

    我們為它所達到的目標感到自豪,但它還沒有達到它所需要的目標。

  • So we've got -- we're not delivering on time, yet we're sitting on 100 days of inventory at the same time.

    所以我們——我們沒有按時交貨,但我們同時擁有 100 天的庫存。

  • And so how do you fix this?

    那麼如何解決這個問題呢?

  • And we're looking at the assets in our factories, on average and the ones we're measuring at running at roughly 50% utilization across the largest ones.

    我們正在研究工廠的平均資產,以及我們測量的最大工廠的利用率約為 50% 的資產。

  • And you run that calculus and there's something wrong in this whole value chain, and then go back to suppliers.

    然後你進行計算,發現整個價值鏈出了問題,然後再回到供應商那裡。

  • Supplier is delivering on time in full to us.

    供應商按時向我們全額交貨。

  • We're running in the low 60s now, in the low 70s, but that there's a ring, it's an average.

    我們現在運行在 60 年代低、70 年代低,但有一個環,這是一個平均值。

  • So it's below 50% to up to 80%.

    所以它低於 50% 到高達 80%。

  • And what's happening is it's just how you manage the flow through that supply chain.

    正在發生的事情就是你如何管理整個供應鏈的流程。

  • And it starts with the front end of it.

    它從它的前端開始。

  • It starts with the demand signal.

    它從需求訊號開始。

  • So what are we using to tell the factory what to produce at a SKU level, and then how does that translate based on stock on hand to what you tell the suppliers to do based on their OTIF performance, the lead time on logistics, this whole chain has to work incredibly smoothly because it's very complicated.

    那麼,我們用什麼來告訴工廠在 SKU 層級生產什麼,然後如何將基於現有庫存的資訊轉換為您告訴供應商根據其 OTIF 績效、物流交貨時間等進行的操作鏈條必須非常平穩地工作,因為它非常複雜。

  • So it really comes back to this fundamental of what is that forecast demand signal.

    因此,這實際上回到了預測需求訊號的基本原理。

  • And the reality is, as we dug into it in a couple of divisions where we struggled with on time and full, our forecast accuracy is not very good.

    現實情況是,當我們在幾個部門進行深入研究時,我們的預測準確性並不是很好。

  • So there are analytical tools that are available that we are starting to look at.

    因此,我們開始研究一些可用的分析工具。

  • It takes some time to implement them.

    實施它們需要一些時間。

  • You've got a data cleanse, you've got to look at what are the right parameters.

    你已經進行了資料清理,你必須看看什麼是正確的參數。

  • You ought to be building into the model.

    您應該建置到模型中。

  • Is there a manual overlay or not based on unique circumstances having for a SKU.

    是否有手動覆蓋取決於 SKU 的獨特情況。

  • That whole process has to run well.

    整個過程必須運作良好。

  • And if your forecast accuracy is not good, you cannot run your factory very well.

    如果你的預測準確性不好,你的工廠就無法很好地運作。

  • Your inventory will be high, your suppliers won't perform, your logistics providers won't be available.

    您的庫存將會很高,您的供應商將無法履約,您的物流供應商將無法使用。

  • So it has to run like a smooth running clock and it's clear we have opportunity to do better here.

    所以它必須像一個平穩運行的時鐘一樣運行,很明顯我們有機會在這裡做得更好。

  • As we refine the model, yeah, we'll roll that out through the rest of the business as appropriate.

    是的,當我們完善模型時,我們將酌情將其推廣到其他業務部門。

  • But this is really looking at two big divisions where we need a really high degree of focus early on.

    但這其實是在關注兩個大部門,我們需要儘早高度關注。

  • So it will roll out over time as we get success here.

    因此,隨著我們在這裡取得成功,它會隨著時間的推移而推出。

  • Joe Ritchie - Analyst

    Joe Ritchie - Analyst

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • That's super helpful, Bill, in detail.

    比爾,這非常有幫助,很詳細。

  • I'm curious, do you think that by February, you'll have some kind of sense for what type of opportunity this presents for the organization?

    我很好奇,您是否認為到二月份,您會對這為組織帶來的機會有所了解?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • We'll certainly know by February, the results of the couple of divisions were in they're big divisions, not like small pieces.

    到二月我們一定會知道,這兩個分區的結果是大分區,而不是小分區。

  • But we can estimate from that, we could probably estimate would -- what's going to happen as we roll it out to other divisions.

    但我們可以據此估計,當我們將其推廣到其他部門時,我們可能會估計會發生什麼。

  • So yeah, we can sort of lay out a lot more to where I think you want to go, which is it's nice to talk about forecast accuracy, but tell me a little bit about how it's going to affect delivery performance, cost performance, inventory level.

    所以,是的,我們可以對我認為你想去的地方進行更多佈局,這是很高興談論預測準確性,但請告訴我一些關於它將如何影響交付績效、成本績效、庫存等級。

  • And I think we can kind of connect the dots on this as we get further mature in this particular area, Joe.

    我認為,隨著我們在這個特定領域的進一步成熟,我們可以將這些點聯繫起來,喬。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

    克里斯‧史奈德,摩根士丹利。

  • Chris Snyder - Analyst

    Chris Snyder - Analyst

  • For in here.

    對於這裡。

  • Bill, on the last call, you talked about how you believe the business should be growing in excess of GDP.

    比爾,在上次電話會議上,您談到了您認為企業的成長應該超過 GDP。

  • And I think to a prior question, you talked about better growth maybe into the back half of '25 and into '26.

    我認為對於先前的問題,您談到可能會在 25 世紀後半段和 26 世紀實現更好的成長。

  • So is that just simply a function of the investments that you guys are making innovation that's going to allow you to start outgrowing the end market and it just takes time?

    那麼,這是否只是你們進行創新投資的結果,而這將讓你們開始超越終端市場,而這只是需要時間?

  • Or is there also an assumption that maybe the consumer just the served end markets get better into the back half of '25 as we kind of see that pickup in growth?

    或者是否還有一種假設,即服務終端市場的消費者可能會在 25 世紀後半段變得更好,因為我們看到了成長的回升?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • So Chris, our crystal ball is not going to be any better than what the various prognosticators out there are looking at in terms of what happens with industrial production, GDP, consumer behavior.

    所以克里斯,我們的水晶球不會比各種預測者在工業生產、國內生產毛額和消費者行為方面所看到的更好。

  • I look back at the end of last year for what was predicted on IPI this year, and I think it was predicted 1.7 to 1.2.

    我回顧去年年底IPI對今年的預測,我認為預測是1.7到1.2。

  • So I'm not sure these indicators are all that powerful to predict what might happen in the market or the macro year out or year and a half out.

    因此,我不確定這些指標是否有那麼強大的能力來預測市場或宏觀一年或一年半後可能發生的情況。

  • Look, first off, we got to grow with the market, and I think we're doing a good job with doing that this year at about 1%.

    看,首先,我們必須與市場一起成長,我認為今年我們在這方面做得很好,成長率約為 1%。

  • As I said last time, and I think at your conference, the 1% is not where we want to be, to actually grow that and be performing better without putting a time frame on it, it comes into these two levers.

    正如我上次所說,我認為在你們的會議上,1% 並不是我們想要的目標,要真正增長這一點並在沒有設定時間框架的情況下表現得更好,它涉及到這兩個槓桿。

  • One, we've got to get this R&D machine running.

    第一,我們必須讓這台研發機器運作起來。

  • As I mentioned then, I'll say it again today.

    正如我當時提到的,今天我還要再說一次。

  • That's going to take time.

    這需要時間。

  • Our develepment time, our development cycle is a year or more on developing and commercializing launching a new product.

    我們的開發時間,我們的開發週期是一年或更長的時間來開發和商業化推出新產品。

  • So there's a time frame that that's going to take to turn that piece around.

    因此,扭轉局面需要一個時間框架。

  • But there's some initiatives that we've got to get at today, and that's a lot more aggressive this at the customer interface, selling, pricing, these other things, which has a near-term effect.

    但我們今天必須採取一些舉措,在客戶介面、銷售、定價等其他方面採取更積極的舉措,這些舉措會產生短期影響。

  • When you put all that stuff together, is it growing at GDP or more than that, we'll describe that more over time.

    當你把所有這些東西放在一起時,它是按 GDP 增長還是更多,我們將隨著時間的推移對此進行更多描述。

  • I want to sort of walk before I run here and that's kind of where I'm standing as we speak today, Chris.

    在跑到這裡之前,我想先走走,這就是我們今天說話時我站的地方,克里斯。

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Anurag Maheshwari - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • And just to add, right, we've grown three quarters consistently 1%.

    補充一下,我們在四分之三的時間裡一直保持 1% 的成長。

  • As Bill said, we'll give more color as time go by over there.

    正如比爾所說,隨著時間的推移,我們將在那裡提供更多的色彩。

  • To Steve's question earlier, we said we can grow operating margin at a pretty healthy clip given all the levers we have.

    對於史蒂夫之前的問題,我們表示,鑑於我們擁有的所有槓桿,我們可以以相當健康的速度提高營業利潤率。

  • As we go into next year, as you are aware, we do certain headwinds from higher pension expense, lower interest income.

    如您所知,當我們進入明年時,我們會因退休金支出增加和利息收入減少而面臨某些阻力。

  • Of course, we mitigate that through share repurchase, but that's a $0.30 headwind that we see from below-the-line items.

    當然,我們透過股票回購來緩解這個問題,但我們從線下專案中看到了 0.30 美元的阻力。

  • But if I kind of look at what's driving in terms of all the discussion we just had around the factory, the supply chain, looking at the indirect cost and all the productivity along with that, along with the tailwind, we can see with the reduction in restructuring charges, it gives us confidence to expand operating margins next year while driving top line growth, and we'll give more specific details this year.

    但如果我看看我們剛剛圍繞工廠、供應鏈進行的所有討論的推動因素,看看間接成本和所有生產力,再加上順風,我們可以看到減少在重組費用方面,這讓我們有信心明年擴大營業利益率,同時推動營收成長,我們今年將提供更多具體細節。

  • Chris Snyder - Analyst

    Chris Snyder - Analyst

  • Appreciate that.

    很欣賞這一點。

  • And then if I could just follow up on maybe some of the portfolio pruning.

    然後我是否可以跟進一些作品集的修剪。

  • Is it fair to assume that whatever business the company decides to leave, they would have paid for it?

    假設無論公司決定放棄什麼業務,他們都會為此付出代價,這公平嗎?

  • Not -- no more organic exit or at least nothing very sizable in terms of organic exit?

    不是-不再有有機退出,或至少在有機退出方面沒有什麼規模的退出?

  • I understand maybe certain SKUs or product lines can come and go.

    我了解某些 SKU 或產品線可能會來來去去。

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Look, I think there's going to be, over time, natural portfolio pruning in terms of SKUs.

    看,我認為隨著時間的推移,SKU 方面的產品組合將會自然修剪。

  • As you bring new products on, it may obsolete other things that need to go out.

    當你推出新產品時,它可能會淘汰其他需要淘汰的東西。

  • That churn, that part of -- that's a normal part of business, and that should all be sort of absorbed within your normal organic growth contributions that we should be growing at the market for.

    這種流失,那部分——這是業務的正常部分,這一切都應該被吸收到我們應該在市場上成長的正常有機成長貢獻。

  • So that is -- as you just pointed out, Chris, a distinct from a selling business, which we're going to look at that on an inorganic exit.

    所以,正如你剛才指出的那樣,克里斯,這與銷售業務不同,我們將在無機退出中看待它。

  • We'll look hard at cash effects, dilution effects, all those pieces.

    我們將認真研究現金效應、稀釋效應以及所有這些因素。

  • We'll make sure we get paid more value for that business than we would have assumed today within 3M.

    我們將確保在 3M 內為該業務獲得比我們今天假設的更高的價值。

  • But I think your question was really on organic.

    但我認為你的問題確實是關於有機的。

  • And as I turn this year, like I said, I think we'll probably talk less about kind of the portfolio shifting that going all up inside the company on SKUs and geographies and things like that.

    正如我所說,今年我將不再談論公司內部在 SKU 和地理位置等方面的投資組合轉變。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

    迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray),加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Deane Dray - Analyst

    Deane Dray - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Good morning, everyone.

    大家早安。

  • Thanks for fitting in, and welcome to Anurag.

    感謝您的參與,歡迎來到 Anurag。

  • Thank Bill, this came up in the local paper, but it'd be interesting to hear your thoughts on the challenges you're facing, both operationally and culturally, to get the 3M employees back to the office.

    感謝 Bill,這在當地報紙上出現過,但聽聽您對您在運營和文化方面面臨的挑戰的看法會很有趣,以使 3M 員工重返辦公室。

  • You all have been fully remote for longer than most companies.

    你們完全遠距辦公的時間比大多數公司都長。

  • I know you've announced some initiatives, but would love to hear some color there.

    我知道您已經宣布了一些舉措,但很想聽聽其中的一些內容。

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, so look, I mean it's -- we need to grow our business.

    嗯,聽著,我的意思是──我們需要發展我們的業務。

  • We need to innovate.

    我們需要創新。

  • Part of that is we need to solve problems for customers.

    其中一部分是我們需要為客戶解決問題。

  • I do think that you problem solve, innovate better in person.

    我確實認為你能更好地親自解決問題、創新。

  • We're going to maintain flexibility in our workforce.

    我們將保持員工隊伍的靈活性。

  • What we've done is for our largest sites at our most senior people, we've asked those individuals to be on the site wherever they report on Tuesday through Thursday with some flexibility on Monday and Friday.

    我們所做的是讓我們最資深的人員在最大的網站上工作,我們要求這些人在周二到週四的任何地方都在網站上工作,週一和週五也有一定的靈活性。

  • This is an opportunity for us to continue to build our culture, build our relationships, problem solve as a team.

    這是我們繼續建立我們的文化、建立我們的關係、作為一個團隊解決問題的機會。

  • And I think it's the right step.

    我認為這是正確的一步。

  • I know a lot of our customers have moved in this direction in the past.

    我知道我們的許多客戶過去都朝著這個方向發展。

  • Maintaining some flexibility in our workforce is really important to me.

    保持員工隊伍的彈性對我來說非常重要。

  • It's important to our employees, and we're allowing that.

    這對我們的員工很重要,我們允許這樣做。

  • But it gives us an opportunity to be able to look across the table from one another and really dig in and problem solve in a better way than I think you can over Teams or Zoom or some other format like that.

    但這給了我們一個機會,讓我們能夠互相審視,真正深入挖掘並以一種比我認為透過 Teams 或 Zoom 或其他類似形式更好的方式解決問題。

  • So that's why we're leaning in a little bit more on bringing people back at sort of -- at our larger sites including here at 3M Center.

    因此,我們更傾向於讓人們回到我們更大的場所,包括 3M 中心。

  • Deane Dray - Analyst

    Deane Dray - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And then just a last question.

    然後是最後一個問題。

  • A lot of discussions today about new product introductions, efficiencies in R&D.

    今天有很多關於新產品推出、研發效率的討論。

  • Will you be bringing back the New Product Vitality index?

    你們會恢復新產品活力指數嗎?

  • Is that one of the measures that 3M had at one time, but then went away from it?

    這是 3M 曾經採取過但後來放棄的措施之一嗎?

  • What's your thought there?

    你在那裡有什麼想法?

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • No, I'm happy to talk about it.

    不,我很高興談論它。

  • I know there was reasons why we pulled away from it.

    我知道我們放棄它是有原因的。

  • We don't want to get that to be oversold or built into a comp metric or whatever.

    我們不想讓它被超賣或納入競爭指標或其他什麼。

  • But the reality is it's an important metric.

    但現實是它是一個重要的指標。

  • Because we've pulled back from introducing new products to the marketplace, we know that.

    因為我們已經不再向市場推出新產品,所以我們知道這一點。

  • I talked at some detail as to how many NPIs have come down over time and where we're at last year, going up 10% this year.

    我詳細談到了有多少非營利組織隨著時間的推移而下降,以及我們去年的情況,今年增加了 10%。

  • The net effect of that is our product portfolio in the marketplace is aging, for sure.

    當然,其最終影響是我們在市場上的產品組合正在老化。

  • Our NPVI on a five-year basis is running just over double digits, 10%, 11%.

    我們的五年 NPVI 略高於兩位數,即 10%、11%。

  • We used to be 25%, 30% for the more super innovative companies that are in that range.

    對於這個範圍內的超級創新公司,我們過去的比例是 25%、30%。

  • I'm not going to say when we get back there, but it's one that's on my mind.

    我不會說我們什麼時候會回到那裡,但這是我的想法。

  • We need to have more fresh offerings on the marketplace.

    我們需要在市場上提供更多新鮮產品。

  • So we ought to be better than low double digit in terms of Vitality Index.

    因此,我們的活力指數應該比低兩位數好。

  • And I'm happy to talk about that over time in terms of the metric, what's happening to it, why I think it's important.

    我很高興隨著時間的推移從指標的角度談論這個問題,它發生了什麼,為什麼我認為它很重要。

  • But I don't want to overuse it with investors or here with employees because there's lots of other metrics, of measures that drives are we becoming effective at driving innovation in the company.

    但我不想對投資者或員工過度使用它,因為還有很多其他指標和措施可以推動我們有效地推動公司創新。

  • That just happens to be one of them.

    那恰好是其中之一。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this concludes the question-and-answer portion of our conference call.

    我們電話會議的問答部分到此結束。

  • I will now turn the call back over to Bill Brown for some closing comments.

    現在,我將把電話轉回給比爾布朗,徵求一些結束語。

  • Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

    Bill Brown - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thank you very much to all of the analysts for joining today and asking a number of very, very good questions.

    嗯,非常感謝所有分析師今天加入並提出了一些非常非常好的問題。

  • I want to importantly thank all 3Mers for their dedication, their hard work on behalf of our customers and our shareholders throughout the quarter, throughout the year, and I look forward to speaking with all of the investors as we get into late January, issue our Q4 results.

    我要特別感謝所有 3Mers 在整個季度和全年中為我們的客戶和股東所做的奉獻和辛勤工作,我期待在 1 月底與所有投資者交談,發布我們的第四季度結果。

  • And in late February, probably the last week of February, as we host an Investor Day likely here in Minneapolis.

    2 月底,可能是 2 月的最後一周,我們可能會在明尼阿波利斯舉辦投資者日活動。

  • Have a very good day, everybody.

    祝大家有美好的一天。

  • Thank you so much.

    太感謝了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

    謝謝你們,女士們、先生們。

  • This does conclude today's conference call.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line at this time.

    我們感謝您的參與,並請您此時斷開線路。