3M (MMM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

3M 召開了第四季度財報電話會議,討論了 2024 年的前景,包括醫療保健業務的分拆和法律和解。他們公佈了強勁的第四季度業績,超越了最初的全年利潤和現金流指引。

該公司於 2023 年實施了重大重組工作,重點是優化其產品組合併持續創新。他們提供了 2024 年的指引,預計有機成長將持平至 2%,每股收益為 9.35 美元至 9.75 美元。該公司強調他們專注於優先事項並推動營運改善。他們討論了為簡化供應鏈營運和簡化上市模式而採取的行動。

重組計畫預計將帶來 7 億至 9 億美元的年化效益。該公司致力於在 2025 年底前退出 PFAS 生產。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 3M Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Tuesday, January 23, 2024.

    女士們先生們,謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 3M 第四季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)謹此提醒,本次會議將於 2024 年 1 月 23 日星期二進行錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Bruce Jermeland, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at 3M.

    我現在想將電話轉給 3M 投資者關係高級副總裁 Bruce Jermeland。

  • Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

    Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings conference call. With me today are Mike Roman, 3M's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Monish Patolawala, our President and Chief Financial Officer. Mike and Monish will make some formal comments, and then we'll take your questions.

    謝謝大家,大家早安,歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有 3M 董事長兼執行長 Mike Roman;以及我們的總裁兼財務長 Monish Patolawala。麥克和莫尼什將發表一些正式評論,然後我們將回答您的問題。

  • Please note that today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call are posted on the homepage of our Investor Relations website at 3m.com.

    請注意,今天的收益發布和伴隨本次電話會議的幻燈片演示已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站 3m.com 的主頁上。

  • Please turn to Slide 2. Please take a moment to read the forward-looking statement. During today's conference call, we'll be making certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M's future performance and financial results. These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-Q lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.

    請翻到投影片 2。請花點時間閱讀前瞻性聲明。在今天的電話會議上,我們將做出某些預測性陳述,以反映我們目前對 3M 未來業績和財務表現的看法。這些陳述是基於對未來事件的某些假設和預期,這些假設和預期存在風險和不確定性。我們最新的 10-Q 表的第 1A 項列出了一些可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的最重要的風險因素。

  • Please note throughout today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in the attachments to today's press release.

    請注意,在今天的整個演示中,我們將引用某些非公認會計準則財務指標。非公認會計原則措施的調節可以在今天新聞稿的附件中找到。

  • Please turn to Slide 3. During today's presentation, Mike and Monish will discuss our 2024 outlook. This outlook will be provided on the same adjusted basis used during 2023. In the coming months, there are significant milestones that the company expects to complete, including the spin of the Health Care business and the finalization of the public water supplier and Combat Arms' legal settlements.

    請參閱投影片 3。在今天的簡報中,Mike 和 Monish 將討論我們的 2024 年展望。這項展望將在2023 年使用的相同調整基礎上提供。在接下來的幾個月中,該公司預計將完成一些重要的里程碑,包括醫療保健業務的剝離以及公共供水商和戰鬥武器公司的最終確定。法律解決。

  • The Health Care spend remains on track for the first half of 2024, subject to customary closing conditions as detailed in our SEC filings. We continue to expect the business to be spun off with an estimated net leverage of 3 to 3.5x EBITDA, and with the proceeds to be distributed at 3M prior to the completion of the spin.

    2024 年上半年的醫療保健支出仍按計劃進行,具體取決於我們向 SEC 文件中詳述的慣例成交條件。我們仍預期該業務將以 3 至 3.5 倍 EBITDA 的淨槓桿率進行分拆,並在分拆完成前以 3M 分配收益。

  • We are working through the processes with all parties in the courts in both the public water supplier and Combat Arms Earplug legal settlements. Our goal is our finalization and ultimate implementation. Absent the proceeds from the intended spin-off of the Health Care business, the company has not concluded how it would fund amounts due under the public water supplier and Combat Arms Earplug legal settlements. Therefore, we have not included the potential impacts of changes in net debt that may be needed to fund amounts under these agreements.

    我們正在與法庭上的各方就公共供水商和 Combat Arms Earplug 法律解決方案進行合作。我們的目標是最終確定和最終實施。如果沒有預期分拆醫療保健業務的收益,該公司尚未確定如何為公共供水商和 Combat Arms Earplug 法律和解協議下應付的款項提供資金。因此,我們沒有包括根據這些協議提供資金所需的淨債務變化的潛在影響。

  • For illustrative purposes only, in the absence of the proceeds from the spin, the adjusted earnings per share impact from financing legal settlements could be up to approximately a $0.20 per share headwind based on current market conditions. Also, please note that we will be treating the dilutive earnings impact of 3M's option to satisfy the $1 billion in payments related to the Combat Arms Earplug settlement with 3M shares as an adjustment in arriving at results adjusted for special items.

    僅出於說明目的,在沒有分拆收益的情況下,根據當前市場狀況,法律和解融資對調整後每股收益的影響可能高達每股約 0.20 美元。另請注意,我們將把 3M 選擇用 3M 股份支付與 Combat Arms Earplug 和解相關的 10 億美元付款的稀釋收益影響視為對特殊項目調整結果的調整。

  • Finally, it is important to note that when considering 3M financials post spin, it is not appropriate to simply remove the Health Care business financial results. There are other factors such as transition services agreements, stranded cost and below-the-line items that need to be taken into account. We are planning on holding an investor meeting later this year following the spin of Health Care, where we will provide an update to our full year 2024 guidance along with our medium-term financial framework.

    最後,值得注意的是,在考慮分拆後的 3M 財務狀況時,簡單地刪除醫療保健業務的財務表現是不合適的。還有其他因素需要考慮,例如過渡服務協議、擱淺成本和線下專案。我們計劃在醫療保健業務之後於今年稍後召開投資者會議,屆時我們將更新 2024 年全年指導以及中期財務框架。

  • With that, please turn to Slide 4, and I'll now hand the call off to Mike. Mike?

    接下來,請翻到投影片 4,我現在會把電話轉給 Mike。麥克風?

  • Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

    Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Bruce. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. 3M delivered a strong fourth quarter as we continued to improve our operational performance. With adjusted EPS growth of 11%, operating margin expansion of 180 basis points and robust cash flow. Monish will cover more details of the quarter.

    謝謝你,布魯斯。大家早安,感謝您加入我們。隨著我們持續改善營運績效,3M 第四季業績表現強勁。調整後每股盈餘成長 11%,營業利益率擴大 180 個基點,現金流強勁。莫尼什將報導本季的更多細節。

  • But first, I would like to comment on our full year performance. Throughout 2023, we delivered on our commitments with results that exceeded our original earnings and cash flow guidance. While organic sales declined 3%, reflecting softness in certain end markets, including consumer retail and electronics, our disciplined execution supported year-over-year adjusted margin expansion.

    但首先,我想先評論一下我們的全年業績。 2023 年,我們兌現了承諾,業績超越了最初的獲利和現金流指引。雖然有機銷售額下降了 3%,反映出某些終端市場(包括消費零售和電子產品)的疲軟,但我們嚴格的執行支持了同比調整後利潤率的擴張。

  • Excluding restructuring, we delivered increased margins of 60 basis points, helping drive earnings of $9.24 per share, along with a 30% increase in free cash flow and a conversion rate of 123%. Our strong cash flow enabled us to continue investing in the business while reducing net debt by $2 billion or 17% and returning $3.3 billion to shareholders through our dividend.

    不包括重組在內,我們的利潤率提高了 60 個基點,幫助推動每股收益達到 9.24 美元,自由現金流增加了 30%,轉換率達到 123%。強勁的現金流使我們能夠繼續投資業務,同時將淨債務減少 20 億美元(即 17%),並透過股息向股東返還 33 億美元。

  • Please turn to Slide 5. As you recall, in January of last year, we committed to take a deeper look at everything we do. Our success in 2023 reflects that commitment along with our execution of 3 strategic priorities, which are unlocking value for customers and shareholders, both today and into the future. Let me highlight key achievements in these areas, including how we will build on our progress in 2024, starting with driving performance through the 3M model.

    請翻到投影片 5。您還記得,去年 1 月,我們承諾更深入地審視我們所做的一切。我們 2023 年的成功體現了這項承諾以及我們對 3 個策略重點的執行,這些策略重點為當前和未來的客戶和股東釋放價值。讓我重點介紹這些領域的主要成就,包括我們將如何在 2024 年繼續取得進展,首先透過 3M 模型推動績效。

  • In 2023, we implemented the most significant restructuring in 3M history, to streamline the organization, reduce costs at the center and get us closer to our customers, which generated more than $400 million in savings during the year. These efforts included aggressively cutting management layers, reducing corporate shared services and modernizing our technology by removing hundreds of legacy systems.

    2023 年,我們實施了 3M 史上最重大的重組,以精簡組織、降低中心成本並拉近與客戶的距離,全年節省了超過 4 億美元的成本。這些努力包括積極削減管理層、減少企業共享服務以及透過刪除數百個遺留系統來實現技術現代化。

  • We reduced rooftops worldwide and took actions to help us address stranded costs as we progress the Health Care spend. We simplified our supply chains and are doing more to leverage data and data analytics to visualize the flow of goods so we can serve customers more efficiently. We optimized our global go-to-market models for each of our business groups.

    我們減少了全球範圍內的屋頂數量,並採取行動幫助我們在推進醫療保健支出的同時解決滯留成本問題。我們簡化了供應鏈,並採取更多措施利用數據和數據分析來視覺化貨物流,以便我們能夠更有效地為客戶提供服務。我們為每個業務部門優化了全球上市模式。

  • In consumer, for example, we simplified our division structure, with each of our global area teams now better aligned around their prioritized product portfolios and brands. At the same time, we have transitioned to an export-led model in approximately 30 smaller countries around the world, allowing us to reduce cost and complexity while still bringing 3M innovation to local customers.

    例如,在消費者領域,我們簡化了部門結構,每個全球區域團隊現在都更能圍繞其優先產品組合和品牌進行調整。同時,我們已在全球約 30 個較小的國家/地區過渡到出口導向模式,這使我們能夠降低成本和複雜性,同時仍為當地客戶帶來 3M 創新。

  • The simplification of our organization also frees up resources to prioritize exciting growth opportunities for 3M such as automotive electrification, climate technology and industrial automation. While we have more work to do in 2024, our actions are helping us improve our operational performance and create a more competitive 3M.

    我們組織的簡化還可以釋放資源,優先考慮 3M 令人興奮的成長機會,例如汽車電氣化、氣候技術和工業自動化。雖然 2024 年我們還有更多工作要做,但我們的行動正在幫助我們提高營運績效並打造更具競爭力的 3M。

  • Our next priority is the spin-off of Solventum, our Healthcare business. Last year, we appointed experienced Health Care leaders to Solventum, including Bryan Hanson as CEO, and Carrie Cox as Board Chair; and Wayde McMillan as CFO. The spin is on track to be completed in the first half of this year, and we are confident in the value it will create for customers, care providers, patients and shareholders.

    我們的下一個優先事項是剝離我們的醫療保健業務 Solventum。去年,我們任命經驗豐富的醫療保健領導者加入 Solventum,包括 Bryan Hanson 擔任首席執行官,Carrie Cox 擔任董事會主席;韋德·麥克米蘭 (Wayde McMillan) 擔任財務長。此次分拆預計將於今年上半年完成,我們將為此為客戶、照護提供者、病患和股東創造的價值充滿信心。

  • As we look to 2024, we will continue to optimize our portfolio as we prioritize geographies, markets and products where we see the greatest opportunity. Finally, we are focused on addressing risk and uncertainty. The Combat Arms settlement we announced last August has received strong support from both claimants and the broader military community.

    展望 2024 年,我們將繼續優化我們的產品組合,優先考慮我們認為機會最大的地區、市場和產品。最後,我們專注於解決風險和不確定性。我們去年八月宣布的戰鬥武器解決方案得到了聲索國和更廣泛的軍事界的大力支持。

  • We completed the first 3 milestones of the settlement as planned, including earlier this month when we reached agreement with all plaintiffs who are being prepared for trial. We will continue to work with all parties in the courts to fully implement the settlement.

    我們按計劃完成了和解的前三個里程碑,包括本月早些時候我們與所有正在準備審判的原告達成協議。我們將繼續與法院各方共同努力,全面落實和解協議。

  • With respect to PFAS, our settlement with public water suppliers is on track for the final approval hearing scheduled for February 2. We will continue to address other PFAS litigation by defending ourselves in court or through negotiated resolutions as appropriate. We also remain on schedule to exit all PFAS manufacturing by the end of 2025 with production volumes down 20%.

    關於PFAS,我們與公共水供應商的和解正在按計劃進行,定於2 月2 日舉行最終批准聽證會。我們將繼續透過在法庭上為自己辯護或透過適當的談判解決方案來解決其他PFAS 訴訟。我們也按計劃在 2025 年底前退出所有 PFAS 生產,產量下降 20%。

  • Looking back, in a year full of change, I am pleased how 3Mers around the world stepped up to lead. Importantly, we stayed relentlessly focused on doing what 3M does best, using material science to make a difference in the world. I see exciting examples of innovation across our company.

    回顧過去,在充滿變化的一年裡,我很高興世界各地的 3Mers 挺身而出,並發揮領導作用。重要的是,我們堅持不懈地專注於做 3M 最擅長的事情,並利用材料科學改變世界。我在我們公司看到了令人興奮的創新例子。

  • Earlier this month, we unveiled the world's first solar-powered communications headset, building on our decades of leadership in both personal safety and sustainability. We are advancing more durable, energy-efficient and connected vehicles with an array of solutions, including new thermal barrier materials that improve the range and safety of electric car batteries. Just one element of our automotive electrification program, which grew 30% in 2023 on top of 30% growth in 2022.

    本月早些時候,我們在人身安全和永續發展方面數十年的領先地位基礎上,推出了世界上首款太陽能通訊耳機。我們正在透過一系列解決方案開發更耐用、更節能的連網汽車,其中包括可提高電動車電池續航里程和安全性的新型隔熱材料。這只是我們汽車電氣化計劃的一個組成部分,該計劃在 2022 年增長 30% 的基礎上,到 2023 年增長了 30%。

  • Our Medical Solutions business, a world leader in advanced wound care just announced a partnership with the U.S. Army, where we will collaborate with the military and leading universities to develop traumatic wound solutions. And in Consumer, last year, we launched more than a dozen new products, including new solutions for heavyweight hanging, part of our $0.5 billion command franchise, which leverages our world-class adhesives technology.

    我們的醫療解決方案業務是先進傷口護理領域的世界領導者,剛剛宣布與美國陸軍建立合作夥伴關係,我們將與軍方和領先大學合作開發創傷性傷口解決方案。去年,在消費者領域,我們推出了十多種新產品,包括用於重型懸掛的新解決方案,這是我們價值5 億美元的命令特許經營權的一部分,該特許經營權利用了我們世界一流的黏合劑技術。

  • 3M's innovation engine is strong. It will remain the heart of our business and our ability to deliver differentiated value for our customers. In summary, the 3M team delivered a successful 2023, and I am confident we will accelerate our progress in the coming year.

    3M的創新引擎強勁。它將仍然是我們業務的核心以及我們為客戶提供差異化價值的能力。總而言之,3M 團隊在 2023 年取得了成功,我相信我們將在未來一年加速進步。

  • I will come back to talk about our 2024 priorities and guidance after Monish takes you through the details of the fourth quarter. Monish?

    在 Monish 向您介紹第四季度的詳細資訊後,我將回來談論我們 2024 年的優先事項和指導。莫尼什?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Mike, and I wish you all a very good morning. Please turn to Slide 6. The fourth quarter culminated a year where we took significant steps to improve our operational execution, resulting in better financial performance.

    謝謝你,麥克,祝大家早安。請參閱投影片 6。第四季是我們採取重大措施改善營運執行的一年,從而實現了更好的財務表現。

  • We aggressively controlled spending and initiated restructuring actions to simplify our supply chains, reduce structure and streamline our go-to-market models to better serve customers. At the same time, we continue preparing for the successful spin of our Health Care business and work to reduce risks and uncertainties related to legal matters. While there is more to do, our teams made tremendous progress in 2023 that we build upon in 2024 and beyond.

    我們積極控制支出並啟動重組行動,以簡化我們的供應鏈、減少結構並簡化我們的上市模式,以便更好地服務客戶。同時,我們繼續為醫療保健業務的成功轉型做好準備,並努力減少與法律事務相關的風險和不確定性。儘管還有更多工作要做,但我們的團隊在 2023 年取得了巨大進步,我們將在 2024 年及以後繼續發展。

  • Looking at fourth quarter performance. Adjusted sales were $7.7 billion at the high end of our guidance. End markets continue to play out as anticipated. Notably, the auto OEM market remained strong in the fourth quarter, and we saw signs of end market stabilization in consumer electronics.

    看看第四季的表現。調整後銷售額為 77 億美元,處於我們指引值的上限。終端市場繼續按預期發揮作用。值得注意的是,第四季汽車OEM市場依然強勁,消費性電子終端市場出現穩定跡象。

  • As expected, China and consumer retail end markets continue to be soft. Organic sales on an adjusted basis declined 1.4% versus last year. The expected decline in demand for disposable respirator negatively impacted organic growth by 60 basis points of $50 million.

    正如預期,中國和消費者零售終端市場持續疲軟。調整後的有機銷售額比去年下降 1.4%。一次性呼吸器需求的預期下降對有機成長產生了 60 個基點的負面影響,影響額達 5,000 萬美元。

  • Excluding this impact, Q4 adjusted organic sales were down 80 basis points. Adjusted operating margins were 20.9%, up 180 basis points year-on-year or up 320 basis points, excluding the impact of restructuring charges. Adjusted earnings were $2.42, up 11% year-on-year. Versus our guidance, fourth quarter earnings were benefited by $0.06 due to a lower-than-expected tax rate which was partially offset by the acceleration of restructuring actions, which impacted earnings by approximately $0.03.

    排除這一影響,第四季度調整後的有機銷售額下降了 80 個基點。調整後營業利益率為20.9%,較去年同期上升180個基點,若剔除重組費用的影響,則上升320個基點。調整後收益為2.42美元,年增11%。與我們的指導相比,由於稅率低於預期,第四季度收益增加了 0.06 美元,但重組行動的加速對收益產生了約 0.03 美元的影響,部分抵消了這一影響。

  • And finally, fourth quarter adjusted free cash flow was $2 billion, up 18% year-on-year. For the full year, we delivered $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow versus an originally expected range of $4.2 billion to $5 billion at the start of the year.

    最後,第四季調整後自由現金流為 20 億美元,較去年同期成長 18%。全年我們交付了 63 億美元的調整後自由現金流,而年初的預期範圍為 42 億至 50 億美元。

  • Please turn to Slide 7 for a recap of the components that drove our year-on-year operating margin and earnings performance. Benefits from manufacturing productivity, sourcing actions, restructuring, strong spending discipline and selling prices more than offset headwinds from lower sales volumes, investments in the business and last year's disposable respirator sales comparison.

    請參考投影片 7,回顧推動我們年比營業利潤和獲利表現的因素。製造生產力、採購行動、重組、嚴格的支出紀律和銷售價格的好處,足以抵銷銷售下降、業務投資和去年一次性呼吸器銷售比較帶來的不利因素。

  • This net benefit drove a year-on-year expansion in Q4 operating margins of 400 basis points and earnings per share of $0.43 per share. Pretax restructuring and related charges in the quarter were $109 million or a negative impact to margins of 140 basis points and $0.17 to earnings.

    這項淨收益推動第四季營業利潤年增 400 個基點,每股收益達到 0.43 美元。本季稅前重組及相關費用為 1.09 億美元,對利潤率產生 140 個基點的負面影響,對收益產生 0.17 美元的負面影響。

  • Raw material, logistics and energy cost inflation was a slight year-on-year headwind of 10 basis points to operating margins of minus $0.01 to adjusted earnings per share.

    原料、物流和能源成本通膨年增 10 個基點,導致調整後每股盈餘營運利潤率為負 0.01 美元。

  • Foreign currency translation was a negative 70 basis points impact to adjusted operating margins or negative $0.07 per share. This result was primarily due to the net impact of hedging and the devaluation of the Argentinian peso.

    外幣換算對調整後營業利潤率產生了 70 個基點的負影響,即每股負 0.07 美元。這一結果主要是由於對沖和阿根廷比索貶值的淨影響。

  • As previously mentioned, our adjusted tax rate was lower than expected, coming in at 14.9%. This compared to 16.6% in last year's fourth quarter, resulting in a $0.05 benefit to earnings. And finally, other financial items and shares outstanding netted to a positive $0.01 per share year-on-year impact.

    如前所述,我們調整後的稅率為 14.9%,低於預期。與去年第四季的 16.6% 相比,收益增加了 0.05 美元。最後,其他金融項目和已發行股票對每股同比產生 0.01 美元的正影響。

  • Please turn to Slide 8. Fourth quarter adjusted free cash flow was $2 billion, up 18% year-on-year with conversion of 145%, up 800 basis points versus last year's Q4. Our ongoing focus on working capital management, especially inventory continues to yield results. Inventory was down $550 million year-on-year and is now at 14.8% of sales, a 90 basis points improvement year-on-year. I am pleased with the progress to date and see significant opportunity to further improve performance in all aspects of working capital.

    請參閱投影片 8。第四季調整後自由現金流為 20 億美元,年成長 18%,轉換率為 145%,比去年第四季成長 800 個基點。我們持續專注於營運資金管理,特別是庫存,持續取得成果。庫存年減 5.5 億美元,目前佔銷售額的 14.8%,較去年同期增加 90 個基點。我對迄今為止的進展感到高興,並看到了進一步提高營運資本各方面績效的重大機會。

  • Adjusted capital expenditures were $308 million, down 32% versus last year's abnormally high fourth quarter. For the year, we invested over $1.4 billion versus an expected range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. And finally, we returned $828 million to shareholders via dividends during the quarter.

    調整後資本支出為 3.08 億美元,與去年第四季異常高的水平相比下降了 32%。今年,我們投資了超過 14 億美元,而預期範圍為 13 億至 15 億美元。最後,我們在本季透過股息向股東返還 8.28 億美元。

  • Turning to the balance sheet. Net debt at the end of Q4 stood at $10 billion, a decline of $2 billion year-on-year or 17%. 3M continues to be a reliable and robust cash generator. In addition, the upcoming spin of our Health Care business will further strengthen our balance sheet.

    轉向資產負債表。第四季末淨債務為 100 億美元,年減 20 億美元,降幅為 17%。 3M 仍然是可靠且強大的現金產生者。此外,即將推出的醫療保健業務將進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

  • As Bruce mentioned, we anticipate receiving a onetime dividend from Solventum at an initial leverage of 3 to 3.5x EBITDA. We will also retain a 19.9% equity stake which will provide additional liquidity. This, combined with our existing strong capital structure provides us with the ability to continue to invest in the business, return capital to shareholders and meet the cash flow needs related to ongoing legal matters.

    正如 Bruce 所提到的,我們預計以 3 至 3.5 倍 EBITDA 的初始槓桿從 Solventum 獲得一次性股息。我們還將保留 19.9% 的股權,這將提供額外的流動性。這與我們現有強大的資本結構相結合,使我們有能力繼續投資業務、向股東返還資本並滿足與持續法律事務相關的現金流需求。

  • Now please turn to Slide 10 for a discussion on our business group performance. Starting with our Safety and Industrial business, which posted sales of $2.7 billion, down 3.9% organically. The expected decline in demand for disposable respirators was a headwind of approximately $50 million negatively impacting segment organic growth by 160 basis points. Organic growth was led by a double-digit increase in roofing granules while Industrial adhesives and tapes was flat, while all other businesses declined.

    現在請翻到投影片 10,討論我們的業務部門績效。首先是我們的安全和工業業務,該業務銷售額為 27 億美元,有機下降 3.9%。一次性呼吸器需求的預期下降將帶來約 5,000 萬美元的不利影響,對部門有機成長產生 160 個基點的負面影響。有機成長由屋頂顆粒兩位數成長帶動,而工業黏合劑和膠帶則持平,而所有其他業務均出現下滑。

  • Geographically, core industrial markets in the United States were relatively strong, while China remained weak. Our businesses were impacted by a reduction in channel inventory towards the end of the quarter, particularly in the Greater China and EMEA regions as channel partners manage cash and are cautious as we enter 2024.

    從地理上看,美國的核心工業市場相對較強,而中國仍然較弱。我們的業務受到本季末通路庫存減少的影響,特別是在大中華區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區,因為通路合作夥伴管理現金,並且在進入 2024 年時持謹慎態度。

  • Adjusted operating income was $524 million, down 6% versus last year. Adjusted operating margins were 19.7%, down 70 basis points year-on-year. This decline was driven by lower sales volumes, which was partially offset by benefits from restructuring, pricing and strong spending discipline.

    調整後營業收入為 5.24 億美元,比去年下降 6%。調整後營業利益率為19.7%,較去年同期下降70個基點。這一下降是由於銷售下降造成的,但銷售下降部分被重組、定價和嚴格的支出紀律帶來的好處所抵消。

  • Moving to Transportation and Electronics, which posted sales of $1.8 billion or up 2.7% organically. Our auto OEM business continued to perform well and increased 13% versus a 9% increase in global car and light truck builds.

    轉向交通和電子領域,銷售額達 18 億美元,有機成長 2.7%。我們的汽車 OEM 業務持續表現良好,成長了 13%,而全球轎車和輕型卡車製造業務成長了 9%。

  • The Electronics business was flat organically year-on-year as demand for consumer electronic devices began to stabilize while semiconductor remains soft. We continue to closely monitor these trends and are well positioned to grow with our customers in these large and important end markets.

    由於消費性電子設備的需求開始穩定,而半導體仍然疲軟,電子業務有機較去年同期持平。我們將繼續密切關注這些趨勢,並做好充分準備,與這些大型且重要的終端市場的客戶一起成長。

  • Looking at the rest of Transportation and Electronics, Advanced Materials grew organically high single digits. Commercial Solutions grew low single digits and transportation safety declined low single digits. Transportation and Electronics delivered $370 million in adjusted operating income, up 28% year-on-year. Adjusted operating margins were 20.9%, up 380 basis points versus Q4 last year. The team achieved this result through restructuring actions, pricing and strong spending discipline.

    看看其他運輸和電子產業,先進材料實現了高個位數的有機成長。商業解決方案成長低個位數,運輸安全下降低個位數。運輸和電子業務實現調整後營業收入 3.7 億美元,年增 28%。調整後營業利益率為 20.9%,比去年第四季上升 380 個基點。該團隊透過重組行動、定價和嚴格的支出紀律取得了這一成果。

  • Turning to our Health Care business. Q4 sales were $2 billion or down 1% organically versus last year. Sales in our medical solutions business grew low single digits organically, while separation and purification and oral care were both down low single digits. Health Information Systems organic sales decreased high single digits.

    轉向我們的醫療保健業務。第四季銷售額為 20 億美元,較去年有機下降 1%。我們的醫療解決方案業務的銷售額有機成長低個位數,而分離和純化以及口腔護理業務均下降低個位數。健康資訊系統的有機銷售額下降了高個位數。

  • Looking at the year, our businesses within Health Care continue to see lingering COVID-related impacts. Full year organic growth in Health Care was approximately 1% with both Medical Solutions and Oral Care posting positive low single-digit growth, while health information systems and separation and purification were both down low single digits.

    回顧這一年,我們的醫療保健業務繼續受到新冠肺炎相關影響。醫療保健領域全年有機增長約為 1%,其中醫療解決方案和口腔護理均實現低個位數正增長,而健康資訊系統以及分離和純化均出現低個位數增長。

  • Health Care's fourth quarter operating income was $372 million, down 10% year-on-year. Operating margins were 18.3% or down 1.9 percentage points with adjusted EBITDA margins of 26%. Year-on-year adjusted operating margins were impacted by lower sales volumes, along with added costs associated with the pending spin.

    醫療保健第四季營業收入為3.72億美元,較去年同期下降10%。營業利益率為 18.3%,下降 1.9 個百分點,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 26%。年比調整後的營業利潤率受到銷售下降以及與待定分拆相關的成本增加的影響。

  • Lastly, the Consumer business posted fourth quarter sales of $1.2 billion. Organic sales declined 2.2% year-on-year. Home improvement increased low single digits organically, while home health and auto declined low single digits and stationery and office declined high single digits.

    最後,消費者業務第四季銷售額達 12 億美元。有機銷售額較去年同期下降 2.2%。家居裝修有機成長低個位數,而家庭健康和汽車下降低個位數,文具和辦公用品下降高個位數。

  • Geographically, organic growth was down slightly in the U.S. while EMEA was down mid-single digits and Asia Pacific declined low double digits. Consumers fourth quarter operating income was $221 million, up 4% compared to last year with operating margins of 18%, up 100 basis points year-on-year. The improvement in operating margins was driven by benefits from restructuring actions, portfolio optimization, strong spending discipline and productivity actions.

    從地理來看,美國的有機成長略有下降,而歐洲、中東和非洲地區則下降了中個位數,亞太地區則下降了兩位數。消費者第四季營業收入為2.21億美元,年增4%,營業利益率為18%,較去年同期成長100個基點。營業利益率的改善得益於重組行動、投資組合優化、嚴格的支出紀律和生產力行動。

  • Before I turn it back to Mike for him to discuss outlook for 2024, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on our 2023 total company performance. As the year progressed, we made strong improvements in adjusted operating margins. For reference, Slide 23 in the appendix provides our quarterly adjusted operating margin recons for the year. As you can see, we delivered significant improvement in performance, particularly when setting aside the impact from restructuring charges.

    在我將問題轉回給 Mike,讓他討論 2024 年的前景之前,我想花點時間反思一下我們 2023 年的公司整體表現。隨著這一年的進展,我們在調整後的營業利潤率方面取得了巨大的進步。作為參考,附錄中的投影片 23 提供了我們今年季度調整後的營業利潤率調查。正如您所看到的,我們在績效方面取得了顯著的進步,特別是在排除重組費用的影響後。

  • Please turn to Slide 12, and I will now turn the call back over to Mike. Mike?

    請翻到投影片 12,我現在將把電話轉回給 Mike。麥克風?

  • Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

    Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Monish. We are entering 2024 with strong momentum from our strategic priorities as we build on the actions taken in 2023. We will remain focused on improving operational performance as we progress our restructuring while driving even greater supply chain productivity and inventory reductions. These represent significant opportunities to deliver sustainable margin and cash flow expansion in 2024.

    謝謝你,莫尼什。我們在 2023 年採取的行動的基礎上,以戰略優先事項的強勁勢頭進入 2024 年。在推進重組的同時,我們將繼續專注於提高營運績效,同時推動更高的供應鏈生產力和庫存減少。這些都是在 2024 年實現可持續利潤率和現金流擴張的重大機會。

  • We will also further accelerate efforts to optimize our portfolio, which has been an ongoing strategy for 3M. In addition to finalizing the Health Care spin, we will continue implementing our geographic prioritization strategy.

    我們還將進一步加快優化我們的產品組合的努力,這一直是 3M 的持續策略。除了最終確定醫療保健業務之外,我們還將繼續實施我們的地理優先策略。

  • We will also step up our efforts to prioritize our product portfolios based on market potential, right to win, supply chain complexity, margins and returns. For example, in our consumer business, we have identified approximately 5% of the portfolio where we have limited market growth and a poor rate to win.

    我們還將加緊努力,根據市場潛力、獲勝權、供應鏈複雜性、利潤和回報來確定我們產品組合的優先順序。例如,在我們的消費者業務中,我們發現大約 5% 的投資組合市場成長有限且獲勝率很低。

  • While exiting these portfolios will impact consumers' growth rate in the near term, these actions will better focus our efforts on products that best utilize 3M invention and ultimately drive improved growth and margins in the long term.

    雖然退出這些產品組合將在短期內影響消費者的成長率,但這些行動將更好地將我們的精力集中在最充分利用 3M 發明的產品上,並最終推動長期成長和利潤的提高。

  • At the same time, 3M succeeds across market cycles because we remain close to customers and invest in innovation. We will continue to invest in R&D and capital expenditures, enabling us to win in our core and also in new attractive markets where 3M can make a difference.

    同時,3M 在整個市場週期中取得成功,是因為我們始終貼近客戶並投資於創新。我們將繼續投資於研發和資本支出,使我們能夠贏得核心市場以及 3M 可以發揮作用的新的有吸引力的市場。

  • Finally, we will stay focused on reducing risk and uncertainty by proactively and effectively managing litigation, including finalizing legal settlements. We will advance the ramp down of PFAS manufacturing while continuing to make progress on our sustainability goals. In 2024, for example, we expect to complete the investments in state-of-the-art water filtration technology across our chemical manufacturing sites.

    最後,我們將繼續致力於透過主動有效地管理訴訟(包括最終達成法律和解)來降低風險和不確定性。我們將推動減少 PFAS 的生產,同時繼續在我們的永續發展目標上取得進展。例如,我們預計到 2024 年,我們的化學品生產基地將完成對最先進水過濾技術的投資。

  • Please turn to Slide 13. Based on these focus areas, along with the macroeconomic outlook, we are laying out our guidance for 2024. We expect the execution of our priorities to support the strengthening of our competitive position, continued underlying margin improvement and strong cash flows as we aggressively manage working capital. As we start 2024, the macro environment remains muted, similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter.

    請參閱幻燈片 13。根據這些重點領域以及宏觀經濟前景,我們正在製定 2024 年的指導。我們預計優先事項的執行將支持加強我們的競爭地位、持續的基礎利潤率改善和強勁的現金隨著我們積極管理營運資金而流動。進入 2024 年,宏觀環境依然低迷,與我們在第四季看到的情況類似。

  • On an adjusted basis, we anticipate organic full year growth of flat to plus 2%. Excluding the impact from geographic prioritization and portfolio actions, we expect organic growth of 1% to 3%. With respect to EPS, we anticipate earnings of $9.35 to $9.75 per share. We expect continued strong margin expansion, along with another year of strong cash flow with an adjusted conversion rate of 95% to 105%.

    在調整後的基礎上,我們預計全年有機成長率將持平至+2%。排除地域優先順序和投資組合行動的影響,我們預期有機成長為 1% 至 3%。就 EPS 而言,我們預計每股收益為 9.35 美元至 9.75 美元。我們預期利潤率將持續強勁擴張,現金流將再強勁成長,調整後的轉換率為 95% 至 105%。

  • As Bruce noted, following the completion of the Health Care spin, we will host an investor meeting and provide strategic updates along with updated guidance for 3M. As always, underpinning our success will be the strengths of 3M, our industry-leading material science, advanced manufacturing global capabilities and iconic brands, along with some of the best and brightest people around the world.

    正如 Bruce 指出的那樣,醫療保健業務分拆完成後,我們將舉辦投資者會議,並為 3M 提供策略更新和最新指導。像往常一樣,支撐我們成功的將是 3M 的優勢、我們領先業界的材料科學、先進的全球製造能力和標誌性品牌,以及世界各地最優秀和最聰明的人才。

  • Before I turn it back to Monish, let me repeat a few important points. As I look across 3M, 2023 was a pivotal year for our enterprise. We executed our plans and delivered on our commitment to exit the year stronger, leaner and more focused.

    在我把它轉回莫尼什之前,讓我重複一些重要的觀點。在我看來,2023 年對 3M 來說是關鍵的一年。我們執行了我們的計劃並兌現了我們的承諾,以更強大、更精簡、更專注的方式結束這一年。

  • We improved our operational performance, advanced the spin-off of Solventum and addressed risk and uncertainty. I am proud of everything we accomplished in 2023, and equally excited about the year ahead. We are in excellent position to build on our progress, continue to improve our operational performance and deliver another successful year. I thank all 3Mers for their dedication and for everything they do for our company.

    我們改善了營運績效,推進了 Solventum 的分拆,並解決了風險和不確定性。我為我們在 2023 年所取得的一切成就感到自豪,並對未來的一年同樣感到興奮。我們處於有利位置,可以繼續取得進步,繼續提高我們的營運績效,並再創成功的一年。我感謝所有 3Mers 的奉獻精神以及他們為我們公司所做的一切。

  • I will now turn it over to Monish for more details on our guidance. Monish?

    我現在將其轉交給莫尼什,以獲取有關我們指導的更多詳細資訊。莫尼什?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Mike. Please turn to Slide 14. As Mike highlighted, we expect another year of strong execution on our priorities, including strengthening our competitive position, continued margin improvement and robust cash flows as we aggressively manage working capital.

    謝謝,麥克。請參閱幻燈片14。正如Mike 所強調的那樣,我們預計在新的一年裡我們的優先事項將得到強有力的執行,包括加強我們的競爭地位、持續提高利潤率和強勁的現金流,因為我們積極管理營運資本。

  • Let's now look at our 2024 expected performance for our business segments. Starting with Safety and Industrial, where we estimate organic sales growth to be flat to up low single digits. As we start the year, we continue to see demand in industrial end markets remaining mixed.

    現在讓我們來看看我們業務部門的 2024 年預期業績。從安全和工業領域開始,我們預計有機銷售額成長將持平至低個位數。新年伊始,我們繼續看到工業終端市場的需求仍然喜憂參半。

  • Full year 2024, industrial production forecast is currently expected to be at approximately 2% worldwide with the U.S. being flat. This business is not only impacted by general industrial manufacturing but also production activity in automotive and electronics end markets, which I will cover next with my comments on transportation and electronics.

    2024 年全年,全球工業生產預計成長約 2%,其中美國持平。這項業務不僅受到一般工業製造的影響,還受到汽車和電子終端市場生產活動的影響,我將在接下來對交通和電子產品的評論中對此進行介紹。

  • Adjusted organic sales growth for Transportation and Electronics is forecasted to be flat to up low single digits organically. This range excludes the impact of the exit of PFAS manufacturing. Consumer electronics end markets are expected to be up slightly year-on-year as the market works to turn the corner.

    調整後的運輸和電子產品有機銷售成長預計將持平或有機成長低個位數。此範圍不包括 PFAS 生產退出的影響。隨著市場正走出困境,消費性電子終端市場預計將年比小幅成長。

  • The semiconductor market is forecasted to start the year soft, however, improve as we progress through the year. Automotive unit volume production is forecast to be down slightly year-on-year. Despite this forecast, we continue to see significant opportunities in the automotive sector through our offerings in both electric vehicle and internal combustion engine vehicles.

    預計半導體市場今年開局疲軟,但隨著今年的進展,半導體市場將有所改善。汽車單位產量預計將比去年同期略有下降。儘管有這樣的預測,我們仍然透過我們在電動車和內燃機汽車方面的產品看到汽車產業的重大機會。

  • Healthcare's organic sales growth is anticipated to be flat to up low single digits year-on-year. Bryan and his team are excited to lead this great business and we'll be providing more details on 2024 and beyond as we progress towards the spin.

    醫療保健的有機銷售成長預計將同比持平至低個位數。 Bryan 和他的團隊很高興能夠領導這項偉大的業務,隨著我們朝著旋轉方向前進,我們將提供有關 2024 年及以後的更多詳細資訊。

  • Turning to consumer. Organic sales are expected to be down low single digits as discretionary spending is expected to remain muted, especially in the U.S., along with our ongoing portfolio optimization initiatives. As Mike mentioned, these actions are estimated to create a year-on-year organic growth headwind of approximately $100 million or 2 percentage points.

    轉向消費者。由於可自由支配支出預計將保持低迷,特別是在美國,以及我們正在進行的投資組合優化舉措,有機銷售額預計將下降低個位數。正如麥克所提到的,這些行動預計將帶來約 1 億美元或 2 個百分點的年比有機成長阻力。

  • As you create your models for 2024, I want to highlight some important items. We anticipate pretax restructuring charges in the range of $250 million to $350 million and incremental savings in the range of $150 million to $250 million.

    當您創建 2024 年模型時,我想強調一些重要的項目。我們預計稅前重組費用將在 2.5 億至 3.5 億美元之間,增量節省將在 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元之間。

  • As I've previously mentioned, our savings are net of the necessary costs required to provide sustained benefits from our restructuring. For example, this includes structure necessary to enhance our go-to-market models, automate processes and continued investment in cybersecurity.

    正如我之前提到的,我們的節省扣除了透過重組提供持續效益所需的必要成本。例如,這包括增強我們的上市模型、自動化流程和持續投資網路安全所需的結構。

  • Additionally, the restructuring actions have helped to partially reduce stranded costs associated with the pending spin of Health Care. Overall, our restructuring program remains on track to deliver pretax savings in the range of $700 million to $900 million with a similar level of charges upon completion. We anticipate our actions will be largely done by the end of 2024, with benefits carrying into 2025.

    此外,重組行動也有助於部分減少與醫療保健懸而未決的剝離相關的擱置成本。總體而言,我們的重組計劃仍在按計劃實現稅前節省 7 億至 9 億美元,完成後費用水準相似。我們預計我們的行動將在 2024 年底前完成,效益將持續到 2025 年。

  • Moving to pension expense. We estimate a nonoperating pension headwind of approximately $100 million in 2024 or a negative $0.15 per share. This headwind is primarily due to the updating of assumptions, including mortality, along with the amortization of prior period losses. While we will have an earnings headwind in 2024, it is important to note that our global plans are well funded, ending 2023 at 94%.

    轉向養老金支出。我們估計 2024 年非經營性退休金阻力約為 1 億美元,即每股負 0.15 美元。這一不利因素主要是由於假設的更新,包括死亡率以及前期損失的攤銷。雖然我們在 2024 年將面臨獲利逆風,但值得注意的是,我們的全球計畫資金充足,到 2023 年底為 94%。

  • Net interest expense is anticipated to be a small year-on-year benefit of approximately $0.03 per share. Again, this excludes the pending impact of the Health Care spin and legal settlements that Bruce mentioned at the start of the call.

    淨利息支出預計將是每股約 0.03 美元的小額同比收益。同樣,這不包括布魯斯在電話會議開始時提到的醫療保健旋轉和法律和解的懸而未決的影響。

  • Our adjusted tax rate is expected to be between 18.5% and 19.5% for 2024. This compares to our adjusted tax rate of 17.5% in 2023, resulting in a year-on-year headwind of approximately $0.17 per share at the midpoint. Therefore, the net impact of these below-the-line items is forecasted to result in an earnings headwind of approximately $0.29 per share. This combined headwind is included in our full year 2024 adjusted earnings range guidance of $9.35 to $9.75 that Mike mentioned.

    我們預計 2024 年調整後稅率將在 18.5% 至 19.5% 之間。相較之下,我們 2023 年調整後稅率為 17.5%,導致每股中點同比逆風約 0.17 美元。因此,這些線下項目的淨影響預計將導致每股收益約 0.29 美元。麥克提到的這一綜合逆風已包含在我們 2024 年全年調整後的盈利範圍指導中(9.35 美元至 9.75 美元)。

  • Please turn to Slide 15. Before we go to Q&A, let me briefly cover our thoughts on the first quarter. As we look at the first quarter, we see our adjusted sales being approximately $7.6 billion or down slightly versus last year. This forecast factors in an expectation for similar macroeconomic trends that we saw in Q4. It also includes an approximate $100 million year-on-year sales headwind from geographic prioritization and consumer portfolio initiatives, along with the impact of last year's disposable respirator comp.

    請翻到投影片 15。在進行問答之前,讓我先簡單介紹一下我們對第一季的想法。回顧第一季度,我們發現調整後的銷售額約為 76 億美元,比去年略有下降。這項預測考慮了我們對第四季看到的類似宏觀經濟趨勢的預期。它還包括來自地理優先事項和消費者組合計劃的約 1 億美元的同比銷售逆風,以及去年一次性呼吸器比較的影響。

  • Turning to earnings. We expect first quarter adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $2 to $2.15 per share. This expectation reflects adjusted operating margins in the range of 19.5% to 20%. This range includes continued standup costs related to this pending spin of Health Care, along with over 100 basis points impact from restructuring and related charges.

    轉向收益。我們預計第一季調整後每股收益將在每股 2 美元至 2.15 美元之間。這項預期反映出調整後的營業利潤率在 19.5% 至 20% 之間。該範圍包括與醫療保健懸而未決的分拆相關的持續站立成本,以及重組和相關費用帶來的超過 100 個基點的影響。

  • Excluding restructuring charges, adjusted operating margins are forecasted to increase by over 250 basis points year-on-year. In the first quarter, non-op pension will be a $0.04 per share headwind to adjusted earnings. And finally, we expect our adjusted tax rate in the first quarter to be in the range of 20% to 21%.

    不計重組費用,調整後營業利潤率預計將年增超過 250 個基點。第一季度,非操作退休金將對調整後收益產生每股 0.04 美元的不利影響。最後,我們預計第一季調整後的稅率將在 20% 至 21% 之間。

  • In closing, I would like to emphasize a few things. We remain focused on our priorities and the team continues to drive results through strong operational execution. Our decisive actions in 2023 set the foundation for a strong 2024. As you know, there are many important milestones in the coming months, including completing the spin of Health Care.

    最後,我想強調幾件事。我們仍然專注於我們的優先事項,團隊繼續透過強大的營運執行力推動成果。我們在 2023 年採取的果斷行動為 2024 年的強勁發展奠定了基礎。如您所知,未來幾個月將出現許多重要的里程碑,包括完成醫療保健的轉型。

  • And finally, as a reminder, if you are creating financial models for 3M post-spin, please keep in mind that simply removing the Health Care business from total 3M financials will not equal 3M post-spin. There are other factors such as transition service agreements, stranded costs and below the line changes that need to be taken into account. As mentioned, once the spin is complete, we will hold an investor meeting and provide an update on our outlook for 2024 that incorporates these factors.

    最後,提醒一下,如果您正在為 3M 分拆後建立財務模型,請記住,僅從 3M 總財務資料中刪除醫療保健業務並不等於 3M 分拆後。還有其他因素需要考慮,例如過渡服務協議、擱淺成本和線下變更。如前所述,一旦分拆完成,我們將召開投資者會議,並提供包含這些因素的 2024 年展望的最新資訊。

  • In summary, we are building on our momentum and driving sustainable operating improvements that will drive improved financial performance. I want to thank the 3M team for their dedication and focus as they continue to deliver for our customers and shareholders.

    總之,我們正在鞏固我們的勢頭,推動可持續的營運改進,從而改善財務表現。我要感謝 3M 團隊的奉獻和專注,他們繼續為我們的客戶和股東提供服務。

  • That concludes my remarks. We will now take your questions.

    我的發言到此結束。我們現在將回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的安德魯·卡普洛維茨(Andrew Kaplowitz)。

  • Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head

    Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head

  • Good morning, everyone. Mike or Monish, could you give us a little more color into the consumer and industrial channels that you deal with? I know you said you're seeing signs of consumer electronics improvement, but also mentioned the destock in China, for instance, at the end of Q4.

    大家,早安。麥克或莫尼什,您能給我們更多關於您所處理的消費者和工業管道的資訊嗎?我知道您說過您看到了消費電子產品改善的跡象,但也提到了中國的庫存減少,例如,在第四季度末。

  • Maybe you could elaborate on what you're seeing across the consumer and industrial channels. And then you are modeling Q1 sales, I think, to be sequentially flat, excluding the $100 million of sales headwind you called out, which seems conservative if your early cycle business are starting to turn. So what are you seeing?

    也許您可以詳細說明您在消費者和工業管道中看到的情況。然後,我認為,您對第一季銷售額的建模將連續持平,不包括您所說的 1 億美元的銷售逆風,如果您的早期週期業務開始好轉,這似乎是保守的。那你看到了什麼?

  • Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

    Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Andy, I'd start with Q1 looks to us a lot like Q4. So some of the dynamics that you're asking about are part of that. We talked about electronics stabilizing in Q4. So starting year-over-year comparison and stabilizing against that.

    是的,安迪,我會從第一季開始,對我們來說,第一季看起來很像第四季。所以你所問的一些動態是其中的一部分。我們在第四季度討論了電子產品的穩定問題。因此,開始逐年比較並穩定下來。

  • As we look forward, consumer retail, similar as well. We saw still softness in discretionary product categories, discretionary purchases. Consumer spending has been strong, but it's been shifting all through the year, as you know to experiences, services and even food as inflation has impacted that. So we see that dynamic continuing to play out as we look forward.

    正如我們所期待的那樣,消費零售業也將類似。我們看到可自由支配的產品類別和可自由支配的採購仍然疲軟。消費者支出一直很強勁,但全年都在變化,如您所知,由於通貨膨脹的影響,體驗、服務甚至食品都在變化。因此,我們看到這種動態在我們展望未來時將繼續發揮作用。

  • If you look at the channel, I'd say broadly, the channels are stabilizing. Consumer, there was -- as we went through the first part of last year, there was aggressive reduction in inventory in the channel. That played out and it's more balanced as we come through fourth quarter as we look into Q1.

    如果你看一下頻道,我想說的是,通路正在趨於穩定。消費者,去年上半年,通路庫存大幅減少。當我們進入第四季度並研究第一季時,這種情況已經發生,並且更加平衡。

  • There was some cautious at the end of '23. At the end of the fourth quarter, we saw some caution in the channel in China and consumer. But I think they're fairly well balanced at this point. The one area where we continue to note some adjustments is in the industrial channels, and that's as supply chains continue to perform better, they're reducing their safety stock.

    23 年底有人持謹慎態度。第四季末,我們看到中國通路和消費者表現出一些謹慎態度。但我認為他們目前已經相當平衡了。我們繼續注意到一些調整的一個領域是工業管道,隨著供應鏈繼續表現得更好,他們正在減少安全庫存。

  • And that's been steady. I think there's a little bit of caution as we go into the new year in areas like Europe, Middle East, Africa, there's a caution about demand. China, as I already said. So -- but I think generally broader, I would characterize it as more stable and in line with what the expectations are.

    而且這種情況一直很穩定。我認為,在歐洲、中東、非洲等地區,當我們進入新的一年時,人們對需求持謹慎態度。中國,正如我已經說過的。所以,但我認為總的來說,我認為它更加穩定並且符合預期。

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • I just would add, Andy, to Mike's comments that auto builds are expected to be down 10% sequentially. And then historically, if you just look at a couple of our businesses which is consumer and Health Care, they seasonally do come down Q4 to Q1. So we baked all that into the guide that we've given of approximately $7.6 billion.

    Andy,我想補充 Mike 的評論,即汽車製造量預計將環比下降 10%。從歷史上看,如果你只看我們的消費者和醫療保健業務,它們確實會季節性地從第四季度下降到第一季。因此,我們將所有這些都納入了我們提供的約 76 億美元的指南中。

  • Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head

    Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head

  • That's helpful guys. And then, Monish, could you give us a little more color in terms of what's happening with your restructuring program? You pretty much were matching benefits to cost in '23. And as you said, you even pulled forward a few pennies of restructuring versus your expectations in Q4.

    這對大家很有幫助。然後,莫尼什,您能否向我們介紹一下您的重組計劃的進展?在 23 年,您幾乎將收益與成本相符。正如您所說,與您在第四季度的預期相比,您甚至提前了幾美分的重組。

  • For '24, I think you're modeling now $100 million difference in terms of higher restructuring costs versus benefits. So maybe give us more color into why you can't get that sort of one-to-one faster return on your '24 actions?

    對於 24 年,我認為您現在正在對較高的重組成本與收益之間的 1 億美元差異進行建模。那麼,也許可以讓我們更了解為什麼您的 24 小時行動無法獲得那種一對一的更快回報?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • No, I think -- Andy, let me explain that first. I'll just go all the way to the top again on our benefits and then I explain the math to you. So for everyone's benefit, in 2023, we implemented the most significant restructuring in our history that generated $400 million in savings last year and approximately the same amount in costs.

    不,我想——安迪,讓我先解釋一下。我將再次全面介紹我們的福利,然後向您解釋數學原理。因此,為了每個人的利益,我們在 2023 年實施了歷史上最重大的重組,去年節省了 4 億美元,成本也大致相同。

  • But when you look at the overall program, it remains on track to achieve the annual run rates of $700 million to $900 million upon completion. And assuming a no spin scenario of Health Care, as Bruce mentioned earlier, we expect nearly 200 to 300 basis points of margin improvement to be realized upon completion of the whole program.

    但縱觀整個計劃,它仍有望在完成後實現 7 億至 9 億美元的年運行率。假設醫療保健沒有旋轉,正如 Bruce 之前提到的,我們預計整個計劃完成後,利潤率將實現近 200 到 300 個基點的改善。

  • And the program, as you said, Andy, remains on track. We've said that it remains on track, and we did pull in or accelerated some of our restructuring into 2023 based on the success that we have had in the program.

    正如你所說,安迪,該計劃仍在按計劃進行。我們說過,它仍然在正軌上,並且基於我們在該計劃中取得的成功,我們確實在 2023 年拉開了或加速了一些重組。

  • What I would tell you to answer your question specifically is what I've said is the $150 million to $250 million is incremental benefit. So on a cumulative basis, if you did $400 million in 2023, and you say midpoint of $150 million to $200 million, that's cumulative $600 million. So on a year-over-year, that's incremental $200 million.

    我要告訴你具體回答你的問題的是我所說的1.5億至2.5億美元是增量收益。因此,從累積的角度來看,如果你在 2023 年做了 4 億美元,並且你說中間值是 1.5 億美元到 2 億美元,那麼累計就是 6 億美元。因此,與去年同期相比,增加了 2 億美元。

  • While on a cost basis, we said we incurred $400 million and change in the fourth quarter, I think it's $441 million. And I said we'll have $250 million to $350 million of cost. So on a cumulative basis, the cost will be around $750 million again at the midpoint.

    雖然在成本基礎上,我們說第四季我們產生了 4 億美元,但我認為是 4.41 億美元。我說我們將花費 2.5 億至 3.5 億美元的成本。因此,累計成本中點將再次達到 7.5 億美元左右。

  • As I've also said in my prepared remarks, we believe this program will be largely completed by the end of 2024 from an expense perspective and the benefits will continue into 2025 and beyond.

    正如我在準備好的演講中所說,從費用角度來看,我們相信該計劃將在 2024 年底前基本完成,並且收益將持續到 2025 年及以後。

  • I just want to make sure one other thing, and we think about restructuring, I just want us to also think through this is -- and I want you all to know, this is how we work. And this is not a series of onetime actions. And I know a lot of investors have asked us, show us the break between benefits and costs. So we are definitely trying to do that the best we can.

    我只是想確定另一件事,我們考慮重組,我只是希望我們也思考這個問題 - 我想讓你們都知道,這就是我們的工作方式。這並不是一系列一次性的行動。我知道很多投資人都問我們,向我們展示收益和成本的差異。因此,我們肯定會盡力做到最好。

  • In 2023, it made all the sense because these were new actions, it was good to show it as individual. But as it becomes the way we work, my request to all of you is focus on the total margin of the company, which is demonstrated in 2024, where our guide is saying we'll improve margins, another 75 to 100 basis points in total.

    在 2023 年,這一切都有意義,因為這些都是新的行動,將其作為個人展示是很好的。但隨著這成為我們的工作方式,我對你們所有人的要求是關注公司的總利潤率,這在2024 年得到了證明,我們的指南說我們將提高利潤率,總共再提高75 到100 個基點。

  • So for example, and the reason I bring this up is you have to look at all of this in totality. For example, we announced that we were going to change our distribution model in 27 countries. The savings of the rooftops, the head count is shown as a benefit in our restructuring program.

    舉例來說,我提出這個問題的原因是你必須從整體上看待所有這些。例如,我們宣布將改變 27 個國家的分銷模式。屋頂的節省和人員數量在我們的重組計劃中顯示為一個好處。

  • But as you all know, there's a corresponding impact on the revenue, and the action has to be looked at in totality versus stand-alone events. And I just want to make sure we bring that out, too. But we'll continue showing what it helps you all, and that's what we have tried to do with this go-round. So hopefully, I cleared that question, Andy, that you had.

    但眾所周知,這對收入有相應的影響,必須從整體上考慮行動,而不是單獨的事件。我只是想確保我們也能做到這一點。但我們將繼續向大家展示它對大家有什麼幫助,這就是我們在這一輪中試圖做的事情。希望我能解答你的這個問題,安迪。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • Guys, can you help us understand the ebb and flow when you go to an export model for 30 countries and maybe help us understand the materiality of that, it could be 30 really small countries, could be a mix, I don't know. But if you think about kind of the revenue headwind versus the cost tailwind, is it -- is there some numbers we can talk around or any perhaps even some color on how that ebbs and flows?

    夥計們,你們能否幫助我們了解30 個國家的出口模式時的潮起潮落,也許可以幫助我們了解其重要性,它可能是30 個非常小的國家,也可能是混合體,我不知道。但如果你考慮一下收入逆風與成本逆風,是不是——有一些我們可以討論的數字,甚至是一些關於收入如何潮起潮落的顏色?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So Scott, the total impact of geographic prioritization and portfolio actions that Mike mentioned is around 100 basis points for the company. Of that, 60% is product portfolio optimization. The balance is geographic prioritization.

    是的。 Scott 表示,Mike 提到的地理優先順序和投資組合行動對公司的整體影響約為 100 個基點。其中,60%是產品組合最佳化。平衡點是地理優先順序。

  • And overall, when you look at the margin rate in these smaller countries, they were at lower margins than the average for 3M. So that's when you refocus. What happens is, since you're going through a distributor, you basically have to drop price to some extent because now they're picking up your cost. And so that's why you see the revenue headwind.

    總體而言,當您查看這些較小國家/地區的利潤率時,您會發現它們的利潤率低於 3M 的平均水平。所以這就是你重新集中註意力的時候。發生的情況是,由於您要透過經銷商,因此您基本上必須在某種程度上降低價格,因為現在他們正在承擔您的成本。這就是為什麼你會看到收入逆風。

  • But on a margin rate perspective, this is beneficial for us to do. It helps us focus on the bigger countries. It also allows us to reinvest in those bigger countries, while at the same time, making sure that in the smaller countries where we are changing the model, we can continue to serve those customers well with what we would call internally as an export-led model, which is we're going to ship our product out from the United States or wherever our end manufacturing is into those countries. So we are still taking care of the customers. We're just following a more efficient way to transact with those customers. So hopefully, that answers, Scott.

    但從保證金率的角度來看,這對我們來說是有利的。它幫助我們專注於更大的國家。它還使我們能夠對這些較大的國家進行再投資,同時確保在我們正在改變模式的較小的國家,我們可以繼續以我們內部所說的出口導向型方式為這些客戶提供良好的服務。模型,即我們將把我們的產品從美國或我們的最終製造地點運送到這些國家。所以我們還是會照顧顧客。我們只是遵循一種更有效的方式與這些客戶進行交易。希望這能得到答案,斯科特。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • I think it does. And just separately, working capital has been a real source of benefit for you folks and particularly in '23. But are we -- as an entity, are you learning to run at lower working capital levels?

    我認為確實如此。另外,營運資金一直是你們的真正利益來源,特別是在 23 年。但是,作為一個實體,我們是否正在學習在較低的營運資本水準下運作?

  • And more specifically really what I'm talking about is inventory. And I think historically just having covered you guys for a while, inventory levels kind of went up and down based on demand, you're not expecting much demand in '24. So explicitly, I suppose that means you can run at lower inventory levels.

    更具體地說,我所說的是庫存。我認為,從歷史上看,我們已經報道過一段時間了,庫存水準會根據需求而上下波動,你預計 24 年的需求不會太大。明確地說,我認為這意味著您可以以較低的庫存水準運行。

  • But if demand were to start to snap back at better levels than you're expecting, would you still be able to run at relatively low inventory levels? Have there been enough structural change, I guess, is what I'm asking to 3M where you can run more productively and efficiently from a working capital perspective?

    但如果需求開始以比您預期更好的水平回升,您是否仍然能夠以相對較低的庫存水平運行?我想,我向 3M 提出的要求是否已經進行了足夠的結構性變革,以便從營運資本的角度來看,您可以更有效率地運作?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • I would say so, Scott, as the team has done, Peter and the supply chain team have done a great job. One is learning through the pandemic on how do you manage the ebbs and flows as you go through supply chain disruptions.

    我想說的是,史考特,正如團隊所做的那樣,彼得和供應鏈團隊做得很好。一是透過疫情了解如何在供應鏈中斷時管理潮起潮落。

  • Two is we have spent a lot of time and energy investing in digital resources that allow us to more efficiently look at demand plans, look at where our inventory is. And we have continued to keep working on dual sourcing, et cetera, that helps us get alternate sources of supply whenever you could have a disruption in one place.

    二是我們花費了大量的時間和精力投資數位資源,使我們能夠更有效地查看需求計劃,查看我們的庫存在哪裡。我們繼續致力於雙重採購等方面的工作,這有助於我們在一個地方可能出現中斷時獲得替代供應來源。

  • My view is this inventory still has ways to run using data and data analytics. We can keep reducing inventory. Working capital is going to continue to be a source of 3M's cash generation machine, along with a good EBITDA that we generate.

    我的觀點是,這個庫存仍然有辦法使用數據和數據分析來運作。我們可以不斷減少庫存。營運資金將繼續成為 3M 現金產生機器的來源,以及我們產生的良好 EBITDA。

  • And at the same time, I would tell you that volume -- if you see volume come back up, the factories are ready and we have the capacity and we'll act accordingly. So I would say the team has done a really nice job, but there's always more we can do and we'll keep doing.

    同時,我會告訴你銷量——如果你看到銷量回升,那麼工廠已經準備好,我們有能力,我們將採取相應行動。所以我想說,團隊做得非常好,但我們總是可以做更多的事情,而且我們會繼續做下去。

  • Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

    Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

  • Scott, just to add, the actions that we have been talking about all through '23, the actions to streamline our supply chain operations, simplify our go-to-market model, that streamlining supply chain operations, it was more than a restructuring.

    Scott,我想補充一點,我們在整個 23 年一直在談論的行動,即簡化我們的供應鏈運營、簡化我們的進入市場模式的行動,即簡化供應鏈運營,這不僅僅是一次重組。

  • This was about aligning our global supply chains to our go-to-market models, really optimizing what we do across plan, source, make, deliver, with a focus on -- and an expectation that we're going to drive improvements, improvements in service, improvements in costs, improvements in working capital and cash.

    這是為了使我們的全球供應鏈與我們的進入市場模式保持一致,真正優化我們在計劃、採購、製造、交付方面的工作,重點是——並期望我們將推動改進、改進服務、成本改善、營運資金和現金改善。

  • And I -- so it's -- Monish said earlier, it's the actions we've taken about the way we operate, and it's an expectation we're going to continue to improve our execution. So there's a plan and strategy on data and data analytics gives us a basis for driving better visibility and improvement as well. So it's a -- it is part of that.

    我——所以——莫尼什早些時候說過,這是我們針對我們的營運方式所採取的行動,也是我們將繼續改進我們的執行力的期望。因此,數據和數據分析的計劃和策略也為我們推動更好的可見度和改進奠定了基礎。所以這是——它是其中的一部分。

  • So we do expect to continue to drive improvement as we -- our guide for '24 has us, again, driving improvements in how we execute showing up in growth in earnings and expanded margins and another year of strong cash generation. So it's a -- it is an important part of that -- those actions that we took as we went through '23.

    因此,我們確實期望繼續推動改進,因為我們的 24 年指南再次推動我們執行方式的改進,這體現在收益成長和利潤率擴大以及另一年強勁的現金產生方面。所以這是我們在 23 年採取的行動,這是其中的重要組成部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

  • Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

    Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

  • Maybe first off, I just wanted to clarify some of Monish's comments on operating margins year-on-year. So I think Monish, you were saying that Q1, the margin is up 250 bps, excluding restructuring. And then the full year is up 75 to 100 bps, including restructure. I just want to make sure if those numbers were right.

    也許首先,我只是想澄清莫尼什對同比營業利潤率的一些評論。所以我認為 Monish,你說第一季的利潤率上升了 250 個基點,不包括重組。然後全年上漲 75 至 100 個基點,其中包括重組。我只是想確定這些數字是否正確。

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Correct. You're right. You're right.

    正確的。你說得對。你說得對。

  • Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

    Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Any color on sort of segments within that or the corporate cost, there was some reallocation you talked about on Slide 7. Any kind of major moving parts that you'd call out year-on-year on a segment basis or what that new sort of corporate run rate is?

    好的。您在投影片 7 上談到的某些細分市場或公司成本中的任何類型的重新分配。您在細分市場上逐年列出的任何類型的主要移動部件或新類型企業運作率是多少?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I would say, Julian, as with prior years, there are a number of miscellaneous items in corporate and unallocated that are always subject to a fluctuation on a quarterly annual basis.

    是的。我想說,朱利安,與前幾年一樣,公司和未分配的雜項項目總是會按季度和年度波動。

  • So if you look at 2023, our input cost was $44 million. And in the fourth quarter, it was a $120 million benefit. The Q4 benefit was largely the result of annual incentive compensation accrual for the first 9 months that we allocated the businesses finally based on performance. This adjustment had no impact to total company margins. So it's just a bucket swap between corporate unallocated and the businesses.

    因此,如果你看看 2023 年,我們的投入成本為 4,400 萬美元。第四季的收益為 1.2 億美元。第四季度的收益很大程度上是我們根據業績最終分配業務的前 9 個月的年度激勵薪酬應計結果。此調整對公司總利潤率沒有影響。所以這只是公司未分配和企業之間的桶子交換。

  • And so for the full year of 2024, again, based on Health Care, being a part of 3M for the whole year. So it's just the assumption, we expect the expense range of paying somewhere in the $100 million to the $200 million on an adjusted basis for corporate unallocated.

    因此,對於 2024 年全年,同樣以醫療保健為基礎,全年成為 3M 的一部分。所以這只是一個假設,我們預期為企業未分配的調整後的費用範圍在 1 億美元到 2 億美元之間。

  • Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

    Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then just my second question, just trying to understand the free cash flow guidance because I think you did $6.3 billion of free cash in 2023. And this year is guided at about $5.3 billion. So it's a big decline year-on-year even with net income, I think, growing $200 million in the guide and CapEx is up about $100 million in the guide. Anything to sort of call out on that?

    知道了。然後是我的第二個問題,只是想了解自由現金流指導,因為我認為 2023 年你有 63 億美元的自由現金。今年的指導約為 53 億美元。因此,我認為,儘管淨收入在指南中增加了 2 億美元,而資本支出在指南中增加了約 1 億美元,但仍大幅下降。有什麼要呼籲的嗎?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • I would just say, Julian, 3M has historically always been a good cash generator. And that's what we plan to continue doing. If you look at 2022, we had 86% of free cash flow conversion, which we were not happy with at all. And the teams have done a great job in 2023 to get us back. If you take the 2 years, it's around 100%. And if you look at the history of 3M, we have always been in that range. And I would say we'll continue doing that.

    我只想說,朱利安,3M 從歷史上看一直是一個很好的現金產生器。這就是我們計劃繼續做的事情。如果你看看 2022 年,我們的自由現金流轉換率為 86%,我們對此根本不滿意。 2023 年,各團隊做了出色的工作,幫助我們回歸。如果你花2年時間,大約是100%。如果你回顧一下 3M 的歷史,你會發現我們一直處於這個範圍內。我想說我們會繼續這樣做。

  • But at the same time, we'll keep investing in growth, productivity and sustainability as and when the volume comes up as and when the opportunities arise because at the end of the day, our first priority is organic growth because that gives us the best return. And the best way to do that is organic investment. So that's our first priority.

    但同時,當數量增加、機會出現時,我們將繼續投資於成長、生產力和永續性,因為歸根結底,我們的首要任務是有機成長,因為這為我們提供了最好的回報。實現這一目標的最佳方法是有機投資。所以這是我們的首要任務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科 (Nigel Coe)。

  • Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So I just want to dig into the corporate line again, Monish. I think you said $100 million to $200 million kind of a run rate for 2024. That's EBIT, not EBITDA. I just want to make sure that's the case. And are you reflecting any corporate dissynergies or stand-alone cost for Health Care within that $100 million to $200 million?

    所以我只想再次深入研究公司的產品線,莫尼什。我想你說的是 2024 年 1 億到 2 億美元的運行率。那是 EBIT,而不是 EBITDA。我只是想確定情況確實如此。您是否反映了 1 億至 2 億美元範圍內的任何企業不協同效應或醫療保健的獨立成本?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • It's EBIT. It's EBIT, Nigel, so that -- can you hear me?

    這是息稅前利潤。這是息稅前利潤,奈傑爾,所以──你聽得到我說話嗎?

  • Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes, I can hear. Yes.

    是的,我能聽到。是的。

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • I'm sorry, what was your follow-up question? I didn't catch the...

    抱歉,您的後續問題是什麼?我沒抓住...

  • Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes. The kind of -- the second part of that question was that are you reflecting any stand-alone costs or stand-alone costs or corporate dissynergies from the Health Care spend within that number? Or would that be additive to that range?

    是的。這個問題的第二部分是,您是否在該數字內反映了醫療保健支出中的任何獨立成本或獨立成本或企業不協同效應?或者這會增加到該範圍嗎?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • No. That number, again, if you just go back to Bruce's comment at the beginning of the call, our current assumption is that Health Care is a part of 3M, even though the spin is on track for first half 2024. And as we go through the spin of Health Care, we plan to have an Investor Day post-spin, where we'll update you on the stranded cost, the impact of transition services agreements as well as what 3M looks post-spin.

    不。這個數字,如果你回顧一下 Bruce 在電話會議開始時的評論,我們目前的假設是醫療保健是 3M 的一部分,儘管 2024 年上半年的旋轉已步入正軌。完成醫療保健業務的分拆後,我們計劃在分拆後舉辦投資者日活動,屆時我們將向您介紹擱淺成本、過渡服務協議的影響以及3M 分拆後的情況。

  • Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

    Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

  • Yes. Nigel, just to highlight, Monish during his prepared remarks, did mention that there is additional cost in Health Care for standing it up as a stand-alone entity. So -- and that is having some margin impact within Health Care.

    是的。奈傑爾只是想強調一下,莫尼什在他準備好的演講中確實提到,將醫療保健作為一個獨立的實體存在需要額外的成本。因此,這對醫療保健領域的利潤率產生了一些影響。

  • Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • No question. I just want to make sure that was the case. And then my follow-up question is just really trying to dig into the restructuring cadence. You obviously -- you quantified the Q1 impact, but take the [1 52] of cost savings in Q4, Monish, and then multiply that by 4, you get to mathematically about $650 million of cost savings. And the midpoint of your guide for 2024 is [6 17].

    沒有問題。我只是想確定情況確實如此。然後我的後續問題只是想深入探討重組節奏。顯然,您量化了第一季度的影響,但是 Monish,採用 [1 52] 第四季度的成本節省,然後將其乘以 4,從數學角度來看,您可以節省大約 6.5 億美元的成本。 2024 年指引的中點是 [6 17]。

  • So I'm just actually wondering, it doesn't look like we're getting any incremental costs coming through from here on in 2024. So just wondering what is the offset to that? Is there some level of investment here? Just wondering what's going on here?

    所以我只是想知道,從現在開始到 2024 年,我們似乎不會再增加任何增量成本。那麼我只是想知道對此的抵銷是多少?這裡有一定程度的投資嗎?只是想知道這裡發生了什麼事?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So I would say it's the same thing I've said before. If you remember, we have said our total benefits are $700 million to $900 million once the program is done with equal costs. We are saying though, our actions will be largely done at the end of 2024. So you will see benefits continuing into 2025.

    是的。所以我想說這和我之前說過的一樣。如果您還記得的話,我們曾說過,一旦該計劃以同等成本完成,我們的總收益將達到 7 億至 9 億美元。不過我們要說的是,我們的行動將在 2024 年底完成。因此,您將看到效益持續到 2025 年。

  • And as I've previously mentioned, our savings are net of the necessary investments required to provide sustained benefits from our restructuring programs. So for example, these investments include structure necessary to enhance our go-to-market models.

    正如我之前提到的,我們的儲蓄扣除了從重組計劃中提供持續效益所需的必要投資。例如,這些投資包括增強我們的上市模式所需的結構。

  • As we talked about, we have exited or changed the distribution model for 27 to 30 countries. So making sure we have a structure that supports that change, continuing to automate our back-end processes as we continue with the spin of Health Care, upgrade rooftops as we consolidate space because you see the savings as we have exited the space, but I got to make sure that the rooftops upgraded so people can come into work there and then continued investment in cybersecurity.

    正如我們所說,我們已經退出或改變了 27 至 30 個國家的分銷模式。因此,確保我們有一個支持這種變化的結構,在我們繼續醫療保健的旋轉時繼續自動化我們的後端流程,在我們整合空間時升級屋頂,因為當我們退出該空間時你會看到節省的費用,但我必須確保屋頂升級,以便人們可以在那裡工作,然後繼續投資網路安全。

  • And we have also said this before that the restructuring actions that we have taken, one, it's a way of how we work, but two, it will help us partially reduce the stranded costs associated with the pending spin of Health Care. So all put together, I still see the programs on track at $700 million to $900 million.

    我們之前也說過,我們採取的重組行動,第一,這是我們工作的一種方式,第二,它將幫助我們部分減少與醫療保健懸而未決的剝離相關的擱淺成本。總而言之,我認為這些項目的投資金額仍將達到 7 億至 9 億美元。

  • But as I mentioned before, too, I would just ask you all to think through, there's a side of cost cadence, which once we are done with those actions, those cost cadence will go away and the benefits will continue into 2025 and beyond at an annualized basis of $700 million, $900 million, assuming Health Care remains as a part of 3M.

    但正如我之前提到的,我只想請大家思考一下,成本節奏有一個方面,一旦我們完成這些行動,這些成本節奏就會消失,效益將持續到 2025 年及以後假設醫療保健仍然是3M 的一部分,則年化成本為7 億美元、9 億美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·史奈德。

  • Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst

  • I also wanted to ask on 2024 margins. And if we look through the restructuring, it seems like the guide is implying flat margins year-on-year from the business. And I guess, why isn't there expected margin expansion? Because the company is expecting to grow volumes or at least grow organically in the year. And it sounds like some of the exits the company is making should be accretive for margins of the underlying business. Just what are some of the headwinds there.

    我還想問2024年的利潤率。如果我們仔細研究重組,就會發現該指南似乎暗示該業務的利潤率與去年同期持平。我想,為什麼預期的利潤率沒有擴大?因為該公司預計今年銷量將會成長,或至少是有機成長。聽起來該公司正在進行的一些退出應該會增加基礎業務的利潤。那裡有哪些不利因素?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • So I would say exactly the same thing I said before. When you look at it in total, our plan for 2024 assumes a margin expansion of 75 to 100 basis points, which includes a piece -- which includes the restructuring benefits and the lower restructuring costs. But at the same time, it also includes many other factors that we take into.

    所以我會說和我之前說過的一模一樣的話。從整體來看,我們的 2024 年計畫假設利潤率擴大 75 至 100 個基點,其中包括重組收益和較低的重組成本。但同時,它還包括我們考慮的許多其他因素。

  • For example, we're going to continue to invest in growth, productivity and sustainability as the macro starts improving. We're going to continue to invest in product areas. We're going to continue to invest in our people.

    例如,隨著宏觀經濟開始改善,我們將繼續投資於成長、生產力和永續性。我們將繼續在產品領域進行投資。我們將繼續投資我們的員工。

  • So I would again ask you to look at in total, if you exclude restructuring costs in 2023, we expanded margins 60 basis points. And in 2024, our total margin expansion, including the benefits of restructuring is 75 to 100 basis points.

    因此,我再次請您看一下總計,如果排除 2023 年的重組成本,我們的利潤率將擴大 60 個基點。到 2024 年,我們的總利潤率(包括重組收益)將擴大 75 至 100 個基點。

  • So Chris, I would say as the year progresses, and I've said this before, volume gives us the best leverage. So as we get more volume, we're going to continue to see leverage increase.

    所以克里斯,我想說,隨著時間的推移,我之前也說過,成交量為我們提供了最好的槓桿。因此,當我們獲得更多交易量時,我們將繼續看到槓桿增加。

  • Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst

  • I appreciate that. And then just a follow-up on the margins. I know you guys said $150 million to $250 million year-on-year net restructuring for the full year. But could you tell us what is implied in the Q1 guidance?

    我很感激。然後只是邊緣的後續行動。我知道你們說過全年淨重組金額為 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元。但您能告訴我們第一季指引中暗示了什麼嗎?

  • And then also, I believe you said that the margin -- the Q1 margin includes some level of standing up cost for Health Care. Could you just tell us what those are expected to come in at?

    然後,我相信您說過,第一季的利潤包括一定程度的醫療保健成本。您能告訴我們這些預計會達到什麼水準嗎?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So the benefits, I would say, again, it depends on which way you're looking at it, Chris. I would tell you, on a year-over-year basis, as I said, there's approximately 75 to 100 basis points -- sorry, $75 million to $100 million of restructuring cost on a year-over-year basis.

    是的。所以,我想再說一遍,好處取決於你如何看待它,克里斯。我想告訴你,正如我所說,與去年同期相比,大約有 75 到 100 個基點——抱歉,與去年同期相比,重組成本為 7500 萬美元到 1 億美元。

  • So if you exclude that margin rates are 19.5% to 20% for Q1. No, sorry, 19.5 -- my number is all getting. It's 19.5% to 20% is the guide, which includes $75 million to $100 million of cost. So if you adjust for that cost on a year-over-year basis, margin rates will be up 250 to 300 basis points.

    因此,如果排除第一季的保證金率為 19.5% 至 20%。不,抱歉,19.5——我的號碼快要滿了。指導值為 19.5% 至 20%,其中包括 7,500 萬至 1 億美元的成本。因此,如果您按年調整該成本,保證金率將上漲 250 至 300 個基點。

  • And then on standup costs, again, timing will determine what the final standup cost is. But currently, we see approximately $0.07 to $0.08 of total cost that we are incurring, as Bryan and the team get ready for spin of Health Care.

    然後,關於站立成本,時機將決定最終的站立成本。但目前,隨著 Bryan 和團隊為醫療保健業務的轉型做好準備,我們預計總成本約為 0.07 至 0.08 美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

  • Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

    Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

  • Just -- so obviously, like the volume environment remains fairly muted. But I'm curious like how are you guys thinking about pricing for '24 and particularly like what's embedded in the guide from a price cost standpoint?

    很明顯,成交量環境仍然相當平靜。但我很好奇你們如何考慮 '24 的定價,特別是從價格成本的角度來看指南中嵌入的內容?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • So 2024 outlook assumes we will have selling prices year-on-year. It's helping us offset some of the moderate inflation we are seeing in certain raw materials, and then the labor market continues to remain strong.

    因此,2024 年的展望假設我們的銷售價格將年增。它幫助我們抵消了某些原材料的溫和通膨,然後勞動力市場繼續保持強勁。

  • But I would just tell you, you have seen we've become good at monitoring this. We'll make sure we continue to take actions as needed. And you've seen it, we've done that in '22. We have done that in 2023.

    但我只想告訴你,你已經看到我們已經變得擅長監控這一點。我們將確保繼續根據需要採取行動。你已經看到了,我們在 22 年就做到了。我們已經在 2023 年做到了這一點。

  • But I would say, more importantly, when you think about margin rate, and the supply chain teams and the business teams, we are not just taking price raw as one item. In total, we are just saying how do we improve margins. So a lot of actions has been taken on, whether it's through selling price increases, driving global sourcing benefits, dual sourcing, driving yield in the factories and of course, prioritizing demand. And all of that put together, including the new way we work with all the restructuring-related items we have announced last year just help us continue to drive margin between 2024, '25 and beyond.

    但我想說,更重要的是,當你考慮利潤率、供應鏈團隊和業務團隊時,我們不僅僅將原始價格視為一項。總的來說,我們只是說如何提高利潤率。因此,我們採取了許多行動,無論是透過提高銷售價格、推動全球採購效益、雙重採購、提高工廠產量,當然還有優先考慮需求。所有這些加在一起,包括我們去年宣布的所有重組相關項目的新工作方式,都有助於我們在 2024 年、25 年及以後繼續提高利潤率。

  • Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

    Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

  • Got it. That's clear, Monish. I guess there's been a lot of discussion on the restructuring expenses and the benefits coming through in the next couple of years. I guess just for 2025, as we're thinking about the low end versus the high end of the benefits range. Maybe like how would you kind of handicap what are the key drivers that potentially puts you guys at the low end of the $700 million versus the high end of the $900 million benefit range?

    知道了。很清楚,莫尼什。我想對於重組費用和未來幾年帶來的好處已經有很多討論。我想只是到 2025 年,因為我們正在考慮福利範圍的低端與高端。也許你會如何限制哪些關鍵驅動因素可能使你們處於 7 億美元福利範圍的低端與 9 億美元福利範圍的高端?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • So I would first say, number one, again, I keep reiterating this just because there's an assumption that's out there that we have assumed that Health Care remains as a part of 3M. That's just the guide but Health Care is on track for a first half '24 spin.

    所以我首先要說的是,第一,我不斷重申這一點只是因為有一個假設,即我們假設醫療保健部門仍然是 3M 的一部分。這只是指南,但醫療保健產業正步入 24 年上半年的軌道。

  • Keeping that in mind, when you think about $700 million to $900 million, it's driven by 2 pieces. One is the pace at which we can execute some of these actions as well as some of the rooftop consolidations that we are working on. In total, I still feel good that the range of $700 million to $900 million is good for the overall program.

    記住這一點,當你想到 7 億到 9 億美元時,它是由 2 個部分驅動的。一是我們執行其中一些行動以及我們正在進行的一些屋頂整合的速度。總的來說,我還是覺得7億到9億美元的範圍對整個計畫來說是有好處的。

  • But as you have seen, Joe, quarter-to-quarter, there's always going to be a little movement because there are multiple actions that we're working through regulations in countries and we're working through making sure we are doing it in a safe manner that you could have a month or 2 delay. But overall, I still feel good $700 million to $900 million is a good range.

    但正如你所看到的,喬,每個季度總會有一些變化,因為我們正在各國的法規中採取多項行動,並且我們正在努力確保我們在一個合理的範圍內開展這些行動。安全的方式,你可能會延遲一兩個月。但總體而言,我仍然覺得 7 億至 9 億美元是一個不錯的範圍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Tusa with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂芬‧圖薩 (Stephen Tusa)。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • I'm still not 100% clear what the sequential decline is in EPS from 4Q to 1Q. Can you maybe just help bridge that a little more specifically? I know there's tax impact there, maybe a little bit of sequential sales decline. I'm just having a little bit of a hard time reconciling the walks.

    我仍然不是 100% 清楚每股收益從第四季到第一季的環比下降是多少。您能否更具體地幫助解決這個問題?我知道這會產生稅收影響,可能會導致銷售額連續下降。我只是有點難以協調步行。

  • I mean I think you had a $0.07 charge in ForEx from Argentine devaluation, maybe that's a factor. I don't know, just maybe a little more color on the sequential EPS bridge from 4Q to 1Q.

    我的意思是,我認為您因阿根廷貶值而在外匯中產生了 0.07 美元的費用,也許這是一個因素。我不知道,只是從 4Q 到 1Q 的連續 EPS 橋上可能有更多的顏色。

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. And Steve, as I said, as you start lapping quarters and the benefits of restructuring starts showing up in the results, it's going to get harder and harder to do sequentials. But anyway, I'll do my best, and hopefully, that answers your question. So I would start by first saying you're going to see another strong quarter of execution on a year-over-year basis, and I would ask you to look at that first.

    當然。史蒂夫,正如我所說,當你開始循環季​​度並且重組的好處開始在結果中顯現出來時,進行順序分析將變得越來越困難。但無論如何,我會盡力而為,希望這能回答你的問題。因此,我首先要說的是,您將看到另一個同比強勁的季度執行情況,我會請您先看看這一點。

  • When you look at our guide for January, we're saying it's approximately $7.6 billion. And there are no surprises in January so far. It's very similar to Q4 trends. So volume is a little lower Q4 to Q1. That has an impact.

    當您查看我們 1 月的指南時,您會發現該數字約為 76 億美元。到目前為止,一月沒有什麼意外。這與第四季的趨勢非常相似。因此,第四季的成交量比第一季略低。這有影響。

  • Secondly, there is usual seasonality that we see in our business when it comes to resetting some of our pay plans and some of the other compensation things that we do. So seasonally, you see that as an impact.

    其次,在重置我們的一些薪酬計劃和我們所做的一些其他補償措施時,我們在業務中通常會看到季節性。因此,從季節性角度來看,您會認為這是一種影響。

  • Third is, as I mentioned earlier, we are incurring incremental costs to stand up the Health Care business as we get ready for the spin. The total impact is approximately $0.07 to $0.08 is the total impact of the -- it's the total cost in the quarter.

    第三,正如我之前提到的,當我們為轉型做好準備時,我們正在承擔增量成本來維持醫療保健業務。總影響約為 0.07 至 0.08 美元,這是該季度的總成本。

  • We have a headwind from our pension accounting that we talked about, which is $0.04 of headwind. And then from a tax rate basis, we expect our 1Q tax rate to be in the range of 20% to 21% versus we ended the fourth quarter at 14.9%. So I hope that kind of gives you all the puts and takes to get you to the range that we have of $2 to $2.15.

    我們談到了退休金會計的一個阻力,即 0.04 美元的阻力。然後從稅率基礎來看,我們預計第一季的稅率將在 20% 至 21% 之間,而第四季末的稅率為 14.9%。所以我希望這能給你所有的看跌期權和看跌期權,讓你達到我們 2 美元到 2.15 美元的範圍。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Yes, that makes sense. And then just one last thing on restructuring. I mean, I don't -- I usually think of restructuring as building -- once you do a certain number in a quarter, you kind of carry it over annually. You guys are run rating at a pretty high level of benefits in the third and the fourth quarter that ramped pretty hard sequentially from the first half.

    是的,這是有道理的。然後是關於重組的最後一件事。我的意思是,我不——我通常認為重組是建設——一旦你在一個季度完成了一定的數字,你就可以每年將其結轉。你們在第三季和第四季的效益水準相當高,從上半年開始連續大幅上升。

  • Is there any like seasonality to these cost saves? Or I'm just curious as to why they're not maybe carrying over a little more into the first half of '24, like of a compounding of those benefits, if you will. I can understand the expense numbers are very clear, but it seems like you're kind of under punching the benefits based on that carryover in '24, especially in the first half.

    這些成本節省是否有類似的季節性?或者我只是好奇為什麼他們可能不會在 24 年上半年延續更多一點,例如將這些好處複合起來,如果你願意的話。我可以理解,費用數字非常清楚,但看起來你有點低估了基於 24 年結轉的收益,尤其是在上半年。

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • I'm not sure I -- one would agree with that. But when you look at 1Q of '23 versus 1Q of '24. There was no restructuring benefits pretty much in 1Q of '23, and we had a little bit of cost in '23. So if you look at 1Q versus 1Q, you actually see margin rates up 250 basis points, excluding the impact of restructuring costs. So you are seeing the benefits, Steve, on a year-over-year basis in 1Q.

    我不確定我是否會同意這一點。但是當你看看 23 年第一季和 24 年第一季的情況時。 23 年第一季幾乎沒有重組效益,而且我們在 23 年有一點成本。因此,如果你比較第一季度和第一季度,你會發現保證金率實際上上升了 250 個基點,不包括重組成本的影響。所以,史蒂夫,你在第一季看到了與去年同期相比帶來的好處。

  • For the year, as we have previously mentioned, our savings that we are showing you in the $700 million, $900 million, which it always has been, are net of the necessary investments that we are required to provide, which we are going to spend to provide sustained benefits.

    正如我們之前提到的,今年我們向您展示的 7 億美元、9 億美元的節省(一如既往)是扣除我們需要提供的必要投資的淨額,這些投資是我們將要花費的提供持續的效益。

  • So again, just to repeat, things like we changed our method of delivery in certain geographies, 30 countries. You need a structure that has to get put into place to serve that. You've got rooftops. So we have exited the rooftops, you're starting to see the savings, but we have to spend the money to upgrade the rooftops that we are left because we have to consolidate that space so that people can come and work in that space.

    再說一遍,我們改變了在某些地區(30 個國家)的交付方式。您需要一個必須到位的結構來服務於此。你有屋頂。因此,我們已經退出了屋頂,您開始看到節省的費用,但我們必須花錢升級剩餘的屋頂,因為我們必須鞏固該空間,以便人們可以在該空間中工作。

  • And then we'll continue to invest in things like customer operations and automate customer operations, which was a part of the whole -- there was a reason why we did this. Mike said it, I've said it, it's the way we work and some of the savings you're seeing come ahead as you've made those actions. And now we're going to put it -- we're going to put in the necessary costs so that we can continue to see those savings. And that's why I keep saying at the end of 2024, we'll be largely done with these actions and the benefits will carry on into '25 and beyond at $700 million to $900 million.

    然後我們將繼續投資於客戶營運和自動化客戶營運等方面,這是整體的一部分——我們這樣做是有原因的。麥克說過,我也說過,這就是我們的工作方式,當您採取這些行動時,您會看到一些節省的費用。現在我們要投入必要的成本,以便我們能夠繼續看到這些節省。這就是為什麼我一直說,到 2024 年底,我們基本上將完成這些行動,並且收益將持續到 25 年及以後,價值 7 億至 9 億美元。

  • Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

    Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

  • Yes. Just so it's clear, Steve, the investments that Monish is highlighting is included...

    是的。很明顯,史蒂夫,莫尼什強調的投資包括...

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • In the $700 million.

    7億美元。

  • Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

    Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

  • In the $700 million, $900 million.

    7億美元、9億美元。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Yes. Okay. That all makes sense. So it's kind of a bit of a timing thing.

    是的。好的。這一切都是有道理的。所以這有點時機問題。

  • Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

    Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jeff Sprague 和 Vertical Research Partners 的電話。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • I just want to come back just to thinking about kind of the separation and just some of the math. Monish, you have taken some pains here to kind of remind us that it's not as simple as just splitting this in 2.

    我只想回過頭來思考分離的類型和一些數學問題。莫尼什,你在這裡煞費苦心地提醒我們,這並不只是把它分成兩部分那麼簡單。

  • So just a couple of questions. I think you had previously said that just kind of stand-alone corporate costs for the Health Care business was about $100 million. I wonder if that's moving around at all if you could provide any additional color on that?

    所以只有幾個問題。我想您之前曾說過,醫療保健業務的獨立企業成本約為 1 億美元。我想知道它是否正在移動,您是否可以提供任何額外的顏色?

  • And is there some color you could provide on what you're expecting on the TSAs. I think that's going to have to be an input to what the EBITDA is for Health Care at the time of the spin and the associated dividend that comes off that. So I know when we get to [410s], a little bit closer, you're going to be more precise on this, but it does seem like you're directionally warning us to be prepared for some friction here. So I'm wondering if you can give us a little bit more color.

    您可以提供一些關於您對 TSA 的期望的顏色嗎?我認為這必須成為醫療保健部門在分拆時的 EBITDA 以及由此產生的相關股息的輸入。所以我知道當我們到達 [410s] 時,更接近一點,你會對此更加精確,但看起來你確實是在定向警告我們要為這裡的一些摩擦做好準備。所以我想知道你是否能給我們更多的色彩。

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Jeff, as we said, I think the timing of the spin will definitely determine some of these costs. And I would just say let us work through it. As we get closer to it, Bryan and the team will walk you through as they get closer to getting ready for the spin.

    是的,傑夫,正如我們所說,我認為旋轉的時機肯定會決定其中一些成本。我只想說讓我們一起努力解決這個問題。隨著我們越來越接近它,布萊恩和他的團隊將引導您完成旋轉準備工作。

  • And as committed, we are going to have an Investor Day post-spin while we'll walk you through all the factors that you have to take into account, which is not only post 3M, what does that revenue and margin look like, but also the impact of transition services agreements because they will be transition services agreements for a period of time and then the amount of stranded costs.

    正如承諾的那樣,我們將在分拆後舉辦投資者日活動,同時我們將引導您了解必須考慮的所有因素,這不僅是 3M 後的收入和利潤率是什麼樣的,而且還有過渡服務協議的影響,因為它們將在一段時間內是過渡服務協議,然後是擱淺成本。

  • The good news, Jeff, is that through all the restructuring actions that we have done, to some extent, we have been able to reduce the amount of stranded cost that would have been there if we hadn't taken these actions to reduce some of the cost at the center.

    傑夫,好消息是,透過我們所做的所有重組行動,在某種程度上,我們已經能夠減少如果我們沒有採取這些行動來減少某些成本的話,就會出現的滯留成本。中心的成本。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • And then unrelated, just on Slide 3. Have you definitively decided to use the $1 billion equity option to fund part of Combat Arms?

    然後是無關的,就在幻燈片 3 上。您是否最終決定使用 10 億美元的股權期權來資助 Combat Arms 的一部分?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Have we decided, I'm sorry?

    我們決定了嗎,抱歉?

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • Have you decided to go ahead and use the equity option of $1 billion for the Combat Arms?

    您是否決定繼續使用 10 億美元的股權購買 Combat Arms?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • No, we have not, Jeff. That's an option we hold, and we will make the appropriate decision once we see the progress in the number of opt-ins for the Combat Arms litigation.

    不,我們沒有,傑夫。這是我們持有的一個選擇,一旦我們看到選擇參與戰鬥武器訴訟的人數取得進展,我們將做出適當的決定。

  • Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

    Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

  • Yes, Jeff, the purpose of our statement is, so you guys can think about your outstanding share count that if we do exercise that option to pay in equity that, that will be treated as an excludes item in arriving at adjusted results.

    是的,傑夫,我們聲明的目的是,所以你們可以考慮一下你們的流通股數量,如果我們確實行使以股本支付的選擇權,那麼在得出調整後的結果時,這將被視為排除專案.

  • So that was only just to highlight, Don't worry about the impact it is at our option. That is yet to be determined, but you don't have to take that into account relative to your share count on an adjusted basis.

    所以這只是為了強調,不要擔心我們選擇的影響。這尚未確定,但您不必在調整後的基礎上考慮相對於您的股份數量的這一點。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • But it sounds like you then will be planning to use an adjusted share count if you go down this path, right? So we're kind of compounding adjustments on top of adjustments, it sounds like.

    但聽起來如果您走這條路,您將計劃使用調整後的份額計數,對嗎?所以聽起來我們是在調整之上做複合調整。

  • Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

    Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR

  • There would be a difference in GAAP shares outstanding versus adjusted shares outstanding if we decide to exercise this option to issue equity. Yes, we'll make it clear in our financial reporting if that were to incur.

    如果我們決定行使此發行股權的選擇權,則 GAAP 流通股與調整後流通股之間將會存在差異。是的,如果發生這種情況,我們會在財務報告中明確說明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

    我們的最後一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)。

  • Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

    Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

  • Just had a couple of questions on some of the outliers in the fourth quarter results. And hopefully, I didn't miss this. For transportation, electronics, significant upside on the top line. I saw that you have an adjusted flat organic revenue growth.

    只是對第四季業績中的一些異常值有幾個問題。希望我沒有錯過這一點。對於交通運輸、電子產品而言,營收顯著上升。我看到你們的有機收入成長調整後持平。

  • So what were those adjustments that were to the good? And then on the corporate line, and it's one, to a significant benefit. Just give us a sense of what those adjustments were that would have caused that? And maybe you answered that question with Julian, but I just wanted to get those clarified, please.

    那麼,哪些調整是有益的呢?然後在公司方面,這就是一個,帶來巨大的利益。請讓我們了解哪些調整會導致這種情況?也許你和朱利安一起回答了這個問題,但我只是想澄清一下。

  • Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

    Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Deane, I think what you're looking at is the adjustment for PFAS, the exit of PFAS. If you recall, we're excluding the PFAS-related -- the PFAS manufacturing and related business as we report. And that was part -- the primary business for that was transportation and electronics. So that's where you saw that, maybe that adjustment.

    是的,Deane,我認為你關注的是 PFAS 的調整,PFAS 的退出。如果您還記得的話,我們不包括 PFAS 相關業務——正如我們報告的 PFAS 製造和相關業務。這就是其中的一部分——主要業務是運輸和電子產品。所以這就是你看到的,也許是調整。

  • Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

    Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

  • That's helpful. And how about the corporate line?

    這很有幫助。那麼公司產品線又如何呢?

  • Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

    Monish D. Patolawala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So as with previous years, Deane, there are a number of miscellaneous items at corporate and unallocated that are subject to fluctuation on a quarterly and annual basis.

    是的。與往年一樣,迪恩,公司和未分配的許多雜項項目可能會按季度和年度波動。

  • So if you answer specifically your question, if you look at for the year, corporate and unallocated was $44 million and on a -- and in the fourth quarter, it was a benefit of $121 million. The Q4 benefit was largely the result of annual incentive compensation accrual for the first 9 months that has now been allocated back to the business segments based on final performance.

    因此,如果你具體回答你的問題,如果你看看今年,公司和未分配的收益為 4400 萬美元,而在第四季度,這是 1.21 億美元的收益。第四季的效益主要是前 9 個月應計年度激勵薪酬的結果,現已根據最終業績分配回業務部門。

  • This adjustment had no impact to total company margins because it's a move from corporate and unallocated to the business segments. And then for the full year 2024, we expect the expense range to be in the range of $100 million to $200 million on an adjusted basis.

    這項調整對公司總利潤率沒有影響,因為它是從公司和未分配部門轉移到業務部門。然後,對於 2024 年全年,我們預計調整後的費用範圍將在 1 億至 2 億美元之間。

  • Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

    Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

  • Great. I appreciate that. And just one last follow-up for me, Mike. You talked about the goals for '24 related to PFAS to advance the ramp down. Would there -- from what you see today, would there be any circumstances where 3M would continue to produce PFAS after 2025? Or is this just a nonnegotiable? And will you dismantle the equipment? Or can it be repurposed?

    偉大的。我很感激。麥克,這是我的最後一個後續行動。您談到了 24 年與 PFAS 相關的目標,以推進下降。從您今天看到的情況來看,2025 年後 3M 是否會繼續生產 PFAS?或者這只是一個不容商量的事情?你會拆除設備嗎?或者可以重新利用它嗎?

  • Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

    Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Deane, we're committed to that what we announced to exit PFAS manufacturing by the end of 2025. And as I said, we're making good progress to that. We're working to help customers transition.

    是的,Deane,我們致力於實現我們宣布的到 2025 年底退出 PFAS 製造的目標。正如我所說,我們正在這方面取得良好進展。我們正在努力幫助客戶過渡。

  • We will -- I think we talked about this on one of our earnings calls, we will not sell the equipment, we won't transfer any of the assets. We won't sell the business. We won't license our intellectual property. So we are going to exit and complete by the end of 2025. That's everybody's focused on that goal.

    我們會—我想我們在一次財報電話會議上談到了這一點,我們不會出售設備,我們不會轉讓任何資產。我們不會出售業務。我們不會授權我們的知識產權。因此,我們將在 2025 年底之前退出並完成。這是每個人都專注的目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes the question-and-answer portion of our conference call. I will now turn the call back over to Mike Roman for some closing comments.

    我們電話會議的問答部分到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回邁克·羅曼(Mike Roman),徵求一些結束語。

  • Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

    Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO

  • To wrap up, we are executing our priorities and delivering on our commitments. We will stay focused on continuing to improve our performance, optimize our portfolio and reduce risk while using 3M science to create unique solutions for our customers. Thank you for joining us.

    總而言之,我們正在執行我們的優先事項並兌現我們的承諾。我們將繼續專注於繼續提高我們的績效、優化我們的產品組合併降低風險,同時利用 3M 科學為我們的客戶創造獨特的解決方案。感謝您加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

    女士們先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與,並請您斷開線路。