3M (MMM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the 3M fourth-quarter earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 3M 第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded, Tuesday, January 21, 2025.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，此通話將於 2025 年 1 月 21 日星期二進行錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Chinmay Trivedi, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis at 3M.

我現在想將電話轉給 3M 投資者關係及財務規劃與分析高級副總裁 Chinmay Trivedi。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the fourth-quarter earnings conference call.

大家早安，歡迎參加第四季財報電話會議。

With me today are Bill Brown, 3M's Chief Executive Officer; and Anurag Maheshwari, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我在一起的有 3M 執行長比爾布朗 (Bill Brown)；以及我們的財務長阿努拉格·馬赫什瓦里 (Anurag Maheshwari)。

Bill and Anurag will make some formal comments, then we will take your questions.

比爾和阿努拉格將發表一些正式評論，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Please note that today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call are posted on the homepage of our Investor Relations website at 3m.com. Please turn to slide 2 and take a moment to read the forward-looking statements.

請注意，今天的收益發布和伴隨本次電話會議的幻燈片演示已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站 3m.com 的主頁上。請翻到投影片 2，花點時間閱讀前瞻性陳述。

During today's conference call, we'll be making certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M's future performance and financial results.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將做出某些預測性陳述，反映我們目前對 3M 未來業績和財務表現的看法。

These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述是基於對未來事件的某些假設和預期，這些假設和預期存在風險和不確定性。

Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-Q lists some of these most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.

我們最新的 10-Q 表的第 1A 項列出了一些最重要的風險因素，這些因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同。

Please note, throughout today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

請注意，在今天的演示中，我們將引用某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in the attachments to today's press release.

非公認會計原則措施的調節可以在今天新聞稿的附件中找到。

With that, please turn to slide 3, and I will hand the call off to Bill.

接下來，請翻到投影片 3，我會將電話轉交給 Bill。

Bill?

帳單？

Thank you, Chinmay, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Chinmay，大家早安。

Before I start, I'd like to welcome Chinmay to his first earnings call as the Head of Investor Relations.

在開始之前，我謹歡迎 Chinmay 作為投資者關係主管參加他的第一次財報電話會議。

He's been with 3M for three years, leading the FP&A function, and was with GE before joining 3M.

他已在 3M 工作了三年，領導 FP&A 職能部門，在加入 3M 之前曾在 GE 工作。

He's replacing Bruce Jermeland, who retired on January 1.

他將接替於 1 月 1 日退休的布魯斯·傑爾梅蘭 (Bruce Jermeland)。

Bruce led IR for the last six years and was with 3M for more than two decades, and we wish him well in his retirement.

Bruce 在過去六年中領導 IR，並在 3M 工作了二十多年，我們祝他退休後一切順利。

2024 was a pivotal year for 3M.

2024 年對 3M 來說是關鍵的一年。

Earlier in the year, we spun off our healthcare business group as Solventum, and we settled two significant legal matters.

今年早些時候，我們將醫療保健業務集團剝離為 Solventum，並解決了兩項重大法律問題。

We also substantially completed the largest restructuring program in company history which focused on reducing complexity and improving margins.

我們還基本上完成了公司歷史上最大的重組計劃，該計劃的重點是降低複雜性和提高利潤率。

These changes weren't easy.

這些改變並不容易。

But the team has done a terrific job executing the programs, and the results are showing up in our financial performance.

但團隊在執行這些計劃方面做得非常出色，結果也反映在我們的財務表現中。

This relentless focus on operational execution drove a strong finish to the year.

這種對營運執行的不懈關注為這一年帶來了強勁的收官。

Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share was $1.68 on 2.1% organic revenue growth.

第四季調整後每股收益為 1.68 美元，有機收入成長 2.1%。

The company generated free cash flow of $1.3 billion with conversion of 145%.

該公司產生了 13 億美元的自由現金流，轉換率為 145%。

During the quarter, we returned $1.1 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.

本季度，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還 11 億美元。

These results capped a strong year for the company where we delivered $7.30 in adjusted earnings per share, at the high end our guidance and up 21% year over year.

這些業績為公司強勁的一年畫上了圓滿的句號，我們的調整後每股收益為 7.30 美元，處於我們指導的高端，同比增長 21%。

Organic sales grew 1.2%, and we generated $4.9 billion in free cash flow with a conversion rate of 111%.

有機銷售額成長了 1.2%，我們產生了 49 億美元的自由現金流，轉換率為 111%。

Turning to slide 4.

轉到投影片 4。

The fourth-quarter results reflect our focus on the fundamentals.

第四季的業績反映了我們對基本面的關注。

Each business group drove positive adjusted organic growth, the first time in nine quarters that all business groups grew together.

每個業務集團都推動了積極的調整後有機成長，這是九個季度以來首次所有業務集團共同成長。

And it was broad based. 12 of our 16 divisions posted positive growth compared to only seven in the first quarter.

而且它基礎廣泛。我們的 16 個部門中有 12 個部門實現了正成長，而第一季只有 7 個部門實現了正成長。

One of the fundamentals is commercial execution, and we’re beginning to make progress in this area.

基本要素之一是商業執行，我們正開始在這一領域取得進展。

For example, in Safety & Industrial, we launched a campaign to drive cross-selling at our channel partners with some encouraging early results.

例如，在安全與工業領域，我們發起了一項活動，以推動通路合作夥伴的交叉銷售，並取得了一些令人鼓舞的早期成果。

And this year, we pulled forward the quota-setting process for our salesforce to ensure we get out of the gates quickly.

今年，我們推進了銷售人員的配額設定流程，以確保我們能夠快速走出困境。

And we instituted standard work for our sales managers and area leaders who support our frontline sales reps.

我們為支援第一線銷售代表的銷售經理和區域領導制定了標準工作。

Reinvigorating the innovation engine is critical to sustain this top-line momentum.

重振創新引擎對於維持這項營收動能至關重要。

In 2024, we launched 169 new products, up 32% over the prior year.

2024年，我們推出了169款新產品，比上年成長32%。

This was above expectations due in part to the rigor and governance we have put in place around new product introductions, but more importantly to the enthusiasm of the team to get back to innovating for our customers.

這超出了預期，部分原因是我們在新產品推出方面採取了嚴格的管理措施，但更重要的是團隊重新為客戶進行創新的熱情。

One launch we’re particularly excited about is our LCD 2.0 platform program that enables LCD displays for tablets, notebooks, and monitors to achieve the brightness and contrast similar to OLED, combining our multi-layer optical film technology with our microreplication technology.

我們特別興奮的一項發布是我們的LCD 2.0 平台計劃，該計劃將我們的多層光學薄膜技術與微複製技術相結合，使平板電腦、筆記型電腦和顯示器的LCD 顯示器能夠實現與OLED 類似的亮度和對比度。

Another one is our expanded beam optics, or EBO, connector which is an optical interconnect designed for data centers that reduces installation time, cleaning, and maintenance while delivering exceptional performance.

另一種是我們的擴束光學元件（EBO）連接器，它是一種專為資料中心設計的光學互連件，可減少安裝時間、清潔和維護，同時提供卓越的效能。

But we’re still in the early days of our R&D turnaround effort.

但我們仍處於研發轉型工作的早期階段。

NPI is clearly an important metric.

NPI 顯然是一個重要的指標。

And in 2025, we expect to see a double-digit increase in the number of launches on top of the higher performance in ’24, but it’s just one of several we’re tracking.

到 2025 年，除了 24 年的更高表現之外，我們預計發布數量還將出現兩位數的增長，但這只是我們正在追蹤的幾個項目之一。

Over time, we need to work to shorten the development cycle time to increase launch cadence, focus investment dollars on higher octane programs, and see NPI translate into higher sales and margins.

隨著時間的推移，我們需要努力縮短開發週期，以提高發布節奏，將投資資金集中在更高辛烷值的項目上，並將 NPI 轉化為更高的銷售額和利潤。

Also critical to driving growth is improving service, and a key metric for us is on-time-in-full, or OTIF.

推動成長的另一個關鍵因素是改善服務，對我們來說，一個關鍵指標是完全準時率 (OTIF)。

OTIF was 88% for the year, up 3 percentage points versus last year and 8 points versus 2022.

全年 OTIF 為 88%，比去年上升 3 個百分點，比 2022 年上升 8 個百分點。

Our team has made solid progress, but we have more work to do.

我們的團隊取得了紮實的進步，但我們還有更多的工作要做。

While Consumer and Transportation & Electronics are now consistently delivering to their customers at over 90% on-time, our performance in Safety & Industrial remains well-below expectations in the low 80s.

雖然消費品和運輸與電子產品部門現在一直以超過 90% 的準時率向客戶交付產品，但我們在安全與工業部門的表現仍然遠低於 80 年代的預期。

It will take a fundamental shift in our approach to raise services levels to where they need to be.

我們的方法需要根本轉變，才能將服務水準提升到所需的水準。

And we’re doing this by standardizing the demand planning process, using new algorithms to improve forecast accuracy, improving supplier delivery performance and driving consistency and reliability in logistics.

我們透過標準化需求規劃流程、使用新演算法提高預測準確性、提高供應商交付績效以及推動物流的一致性和可靠性來實現這一目標。

These are key elements of our broader operational excellence program, which continues to mature but is still in the early innings.

這些是我們更廣泛的卓越營運計劃的關鍵要素，該計劃不斷成熟，但仍處於早期階段。

Our goal remains to deliver 2% net productivity through sourcing efficiency, quality improvement, lean manufacturing, and asset utilization, which I described last time as operating equipment efficiency, or OEE.

我們的目標仍然是透過採購效率、品質改進、精益製造和資產利用率（我上次將其描述為營運設備效率或 OEE）來實現 2% 的淨生產力。

These efforts are starting to take hold and will support further gross margin expansion toward our goal of high 40s.

這些努力已開始見效，並將支持進一步擴大毛利率，實現我們 40 多歲的目標。

We also made progress on inventory days, which was down two days versus last year and eight sequentially, ending the year at 94 days.

我們在庫存天數方面也取得了進展，與去年相比減少了兩天，比上一季減少了八天，年終庫存天數為 94 天。

This is just a start as our goal is to get to 75 days, freeing up cash for our capital deployment priorities which include returning cash to shareholders.

這只是一個開始，因為我們的目標是達到 75 天，為我們的資本部署優先事項釋放現金，其中包括向股東返還現金。

Last year, we returned $3.8 billion to shareholders, $2 billion in dividends and $1.8 billion in share repurchases.

去年，我們向股東返還了 38 億美元、20 億美元的股利和 18 億美元的股票回購。

Lastly, we continue to assess our portfolio, and we have several small actions underway.

最後，我們繼續評估我們的投資組合，並且我們正在進行一些小行動。

We’ll update you on progress as deals are signed.

交易簽署後，我們將向您通報最新進展。

Moving to guidance on slide 5.

轉到投影片 5 上的指示。

Our strong finish in the fourth quarter gives us confidence in our ability to deliver in 2025.

第四季的強勁表現讓我們對 2025 年交付的能力充滿信心。

For the year, we expect organic sales growth in the range of 2% to 3%, adjusted earnings per share in the range of $7.60 to $7.90, and free cash flow conversion of approximately 100%.

我們預計今年的有機銷售額成長將在 2% 至 3% 之間，調整後每股收益將在 7.60 美元至 7.90 美元之間，自由現金流轉換率約為 100%。

Our back-to-basics approach and focus on our three top priorities underpins our ability to deliver on these commitments as the macro recovery continues to be uneven.

在宏觀復甦仍然不平衡的情況下，我們回歸基本的方法和對三個首要任務的關注鞏固了我們履行這些承諾的能力。

Currently, IPI is forecasted to be 1.9% in 2025.

目前，預計 2025 年 IPI 為 1.9%。

But as you may recall, the forecast for IPI in 2024, 12 months ago, was also about 2% and we ended the year at about 1%.

但您可能還記得，12 個月前，對 2024 年 IPI 的預測也約為 2%，而我們年底的預測約為 1%。

We’ll see how that evolves, but we’ll be looking to take advantage of this acceleration as it materializes.

我們將看到這種情況如何發展，但我們將尋求在這種加速實現時利用它。

Other key data points to watch include auto builds which are expected to be slightly negative but down 3% to 4% in Europe and the US, where we have better penetration, and flat in China and up across Asia, where our content per vehicle is lower.

其他值得關注的關鍵數據點包括汽車製造量，預計將略有下降，但在歐洲和美國（我們在這兩個國家的滲透率較高）下降3% 至4%，而在中國和整個亞洲則持平（我們在這些地區每輛車的內容量為降低。

Consumer electronics is expected to be up low to mid-single digits, and consumer discretionary spend remains soft, especially in the US where retail sales are expected to be relatively flat.

消費性電子產品預計將成長低至中個位數，非必需消費品支出仍然疲軟，尤其是在美國，零售額預計將相對持平。

As we navigate the ups and downs of the macro environment, we’ll focus as always on what we can control: servicing our customers at higher levels, improving commercial excellence at the customer interface, filling up the innovation pipeline to support future growth, and driving productivity and efficiency throughout the organization.

當我們應對宏觀環境的起起落落時，我們將一如既往地關注我們可以控制的事情：為我們的客戶提供更高水準的服務，提高客戶介面的商業卓越性，充實創新管道以支持未來的成長，並提高整個組織的生產力和效率。

We look forward to sharing more details on each of these priorities as well as our medium-term outlook during our investor day in St. Paul on February 26.

我們期待在 2 月 26 日聖保羅投資者日期間分享有關每個優先事項的更多細節以及我們的中期展望。

You’ll hear from our leaders in R&D, supply chain, and the business groups about their execution plans that will turn our priorities into results.

您將聽到我們研發、供應鏈和業務部門的領導者講述他們的執行計劃，這些計劃將把我們的優先事項轉化為結果。

I hope to see you there.

我希望在那裡見到你。

With that.

就這樣。

I’ll turn it over to Anurag to walk through the details of quarter.

我會將其交給 Anurag，讓其詳細介紹季度的詳細資訊。

Anurag?

阿努拉格？

Thank you, Bill.

謝謝你，比爾。

Turning to slide 6.

轉到投影片 6。

We had a strong finish to the year with Q4 performance coming in better than expected.

我們以強勁的業績結束了這一年，第四季的業績優於預期。

Total adjusted sales were $5.8 billion with organic growth up 2.1%.

調整後總銷售額為 58 億美元，有機成長 2.1%。

All three business groups had positive adjusted organic growth in the quarter and performed better than our end-markets.

所有三個業務集團在本季度都實現了積極的調整後有機成長，並且表現優於我們的終端市場。

In the fourth quarter, global IPI was up 1.4% year-on-year, and the markets we serve trended in line with expectations.

第四季度，全球IPI年增1.4%，我們服務的市場趨勢符合預期。

Consumer electronics remained stable, automotive OEM builds were flat, and consumer retail discretionary spending was soft.

消費性電子產品維持穩定，汽車原始設備製造商產量持平，消費者零售可自由支配支出疲軟。

Geographically, our growth was led by China, up high-single digits driven by our electronics business where we continue to gain share and saw modest front loading from an anticipated change in tariffs.

從地理上看，我們的成長主要由中國帶動，在我們的電子業務的推動下，我們的市場份額持續獲得成長，並且由於預期的關稅變化而帶來了適度的前期負擔。

The US was up low-single digits despite the challenging macro backdrop with growth in aerospace and general industrial.

儘管宏觀背景充滿挑戰，航空航太和一般工業成長，但美國仍實現低個位數成長。

And EMEA was down low-single digits due to the continued weak environment including a high-single digit decline in auto builds.

由於持續疲軟的環境（包括汽車製造量的高個位數下降），歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售量出現低個位數下降。

Adjusted operating margins were 19.7%, down 20 basis points year over year, and adjusted EPS was $1.68 or $0.05 better than the midpoint of our guidance.

調整後營業利益率為 19.7%，年減 20 個基點，調整後每股收益為 1.68 美元，比我們指引的中位數高 0.05 美元。

The better performance was driven by $0.09 of volume leverage, higher productivity, and lower restructuring charges, more than offsetting the unexpected $0.04 headwind from FX due to the significant recent US dollar strength.

0.09 美元的交易量槓桿、更高的生產力和更低的重組費用推動了更好的業績，抵消了近期美元大幅走強帶來的 0.04 美元的外匯不利因素。

I will provide a quick overview of our growth performance for each business group on slide 7.

我將在投影片 7 上快速概述每個業務組的成長績效。

Safety & Industrial organic sales grew for the third consecutive quarter with 2.4% growth in the fourth quarter.

安全與工業有機銷售額連續第三個季度成長，第四季成長 2.4%。

This growth was broad based with six out of seven divisions posting positive growth.

這種成長基礎廣泛，七個部門中有六個部門實現了正成長。

We saw particularly strong demand for e-bonding in electronics and hearing and body protection in personal safety.

我們看到電子產品中的電子黏合以及個人安全中的聽力和身體保護的需求特別強勁。

In addition, growth was driven from a few large power grid orders, as anticipated, in Asia and the US for aluminum high-capacity conductors and power cable accessories for data centers.

此外，正如預期的那樣，亞洲和美國的一些大型電網訂單推動了成長，這些訂單涉及資料中心的鋁高容量導體和電力電纜配件。

For the year, safety and industrial sales were approximately $11 billion dollars with organic sales growth of 0.7%, led by strength in e-bonding, cable accessories, and auto body repair.

今年，安全和工業銷售額約為 110 億美元，有機銷售額成長 0.7%，主要得益於電子黏合、電纜配件和汽車車身維修領域的強勁表現。

Roofing granules had another year of mid-single digit growth as we continue to capitalize on the multi-year roof replacement cycle.

隨著我們繼續利用多年屋頂更換週期，屋頂顆粒又迎來了中個位數成長的一年。

Transportation & Electronics adjusted sales were up 2% organically in the fourth quarter.

第四季交通和電子產品調整後銷售額有機成長 2%。

The consumer electronics business showed continued strength, growing high single-digits driven by solid volumes through the holiday season and continued share gains.

消費電子業務表現出持續的強勁勢頭，在假期期間的穩定銷售和持續的份額上漲的推動下實現了高個位數增長。

Aerospace was again up double digits in the quarter, while the auto OEM business was down mid-single digits, reflecting continued weakness in global car and light truck builds.

本季航空航太業務再次實現兩位數成長，而汽車 OEM 業務則下降中個位數，反映出全球汽車和輕型卡車製造持續疲軟。

For the year Transportation & Electronics had adjusted organic growth of 3.4% driven by electronics, aerospace, and auto.

今年，在電子、航空航太和汽車的推動下，交通與電子產業調整後的有機成長為 3.4%。

Our electronics sales were up approximately 12% from strong market demand combined with new product introductions and spec wins that drove share gains.

由於強勁的市場需求，加上新產品的推出和規格的成功，推動了份額的成長，我們的電子產品銷售額成長了約 12%。

Despite a challenging Q4, our auto OEM business was up 2% versus a 1% decline in auto build rates.

儘管第四季度充滿挑戰，我們的汽車 OEM 業務仍成長了 2%，而汽車製造率下降了 1%。

And the aerospace business grew double digits again for the year and 50% over the past two years, reflecting our focus on growth portfolios.

航空航太業務今年再次實現兩位數成長，過去兩年成長 50%，反映出我們對成長投資組合的關注。

Finally, the Consumer business returned to growth in the fourth quarter up 1.2% organically.

最後，消費者業務在第四季恢復成長，有機成長 1.2%。

Home improvement led the way, up low-single digits driven by strength during the holiday season for Command, Scotch tape, and paint protection products.

家居裝修領漲，在假期季節期間，Command、透明膠帶和油漆保護產品的強勁推動下，其銷售量出現低個位數成長。

And for the year, our Consumer business was down 1.2% with low-single digit growth in home improvement sales, mainly Command, more than offset by low to mid-single digit declines in the other divisions.

今年，我們的消費者業務下降了 1.2%，家居裝修銷售（主要是 Command）出現低個位數成長，但被其他部門的低個位數至中個位數下降所抵消。

Let me summarize our full-year 2024 financial performance on slide 8.

讓我在投影片 8 上總結我們 2024 年全年的財務表現。

On the back of strong fourth quarter performance, we finished the year with total adjusted sales of $23.6 billion and organic growth of 1.2%.

憑藉強勁的第四季業績，我們全年調整後銷售額達 236 億美元，有機成長 1.2%。

All of our business groups were in line with our guidance.

我們所有的業務部門都符合我們的指導。

And from a geographic perspective, we saw solid organic growth in Asia Pacific, up 4.4% driven by consistent strength in our electronics business.

從地理角度來看，我們在電子業務持續強勁的推動下，亞太地區實現了穩健的有機成長，成長了 4.4%。

In the US, despite IPI being down 0.3%, our business was up 0.7% driven by electrical markets, aerospace, cable accessories, and home improvement.

在美國，儘管 IPI 下降了 0.3%，但在電氣市場、航空航太、電纜配件和家居裝修的推動下，我們的業務成長了 0.7%。

EMEA was down 1.3% due to the decline in auto builds and the weak industrial and manufacturing environment.

由於汽車製造量下降以及工業和製造環境疲軟，歐洲、中東和非洲地區下降了 1.3%。

Our adjusted operating margins expanded 280 basis points, above the high end of our guidance range of 250 to 275 basis points, to 21.4%.

調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 280 個基點，高於指導範圍 250 至 275 個基點的上限，達到 21.4%。

This performance was driven by benefits from volume leverage, productivity, Solventum Transition Service Agreement cost reimbursements, and restructuring, partially offset by FX and investments to drive growth in the business.

這一業績是由銷售槓桿、生產力、溶劑轉換服務協議成本補償和重組帶來的收益所推動的，但部分被外匯和投資所抵消，以推動業務成長。

We delivered $7.30 of EPS for the year, up 21% and at the high-end of our guidance range.

我們今年的每股收益為 7.30 美元，成長 21%，處於我們指導範圍的高端。

Over 80% of our year-on-year performance was driven by strong operational execution.

我們超過 80% 的年比業績是由強大的營運執行力推動的。

Finally, we delivered free cash flow of $4.9 billion or 111% conversion, which included net working capital improvement of eight days, and returned $3.8 billion to shareholders in 2024.

最後，我們實現了 49 億美元的自由現金流，即 111% 的轉換率，其中包括 8 天的淨營運資本改善，並在 2024 年向股東返還 38 億美元。

Please turn to slide 9 as we look into our 2025 guidance.

請參閱投影片 9，我們將探討 2025 年指引。

As Bill indicated, we expect organic sales growth of 2% to 3%, earnings per share of $7.60 to $7.90 representing growth of 4% to 8%, and free cash flow conversion of approximately 100%, all on an adjusted basis.

正如比爾指出的那樣，我們預計有機銷售額將增長 2% 至 3%，每股收益 7.60 美元至 7.90 美元，增長 4% 至 8%，自由現金流轉換率約為 100%，所有這些均經過調整。

We expect all business groups to grow low-single digits which is in line with or above macro.

我們預計所有業務集團都將實現低個位數成長，這與宏觀經濟成長一致或高於宏觀經濟成長。

We expect this higher growth trajectory to be supported by our focus on commercial excellence, improvement in service levels, and new product launches.

我們預計這種更高的成長軌跡將得到我們對商業卓越、服務水準提高和新產品發布的關注的支持。

We have largely moved past product portfolio prioritization headwinds, and the small amount that remains is incorporated into our guidance and won’t be specifically called out going forward.

我們已經在很大程度上克服了產品組合優先順序的阻力，剩下的少量內容已納入我們的指導中，並且今後不會被特別提及。

Our EPS growth is anchored by margin expansion in a range of 130 to 190 basis points which reflects our relentless focus on operational excellence.

我們的每股盈餘成長以 130 至 190 個基點的利潤率擴張為基礎，這反映了我們對卓越營運的不懈關注。

Adjusted free cash flow conversion is expected to be approximately 100%, driven by strong operating income growth and a focus on working capital management.

在強勁的營業收入成長和對營運資本管理的關注的推動下，調整後的自由現金流轉換率預計約為 100%。

Adjusted CapEx of approximately $1 billion dollars will be in line with depreciation and amortization.

調整後的資本支出約為 10 億美元，將與折舊和攤提保持一致。

Let me take a minute to walk through the EPS drivers for 2025 on slide 10.

讓我花一點時間在投影片 10 上介紹一下 2025 年 EPS 驅動因素。

We expect EPS growth of 4% to 8% driven by operational performance that is partially offset by non-operational headwinds.

我們預期每股盈餘將在營運績效的推動下成長 4% 至 8%，但部分將被非營運不利因素所抵銷。

We are confident that our focus on operational excellence will contribute $0.70 to $1 or 10% to 14% to adjusted EPS growth.

我們相信，我們對卓越營運的關注將為調整後每股收益成長貢獻 0.70 美元至 1 美元或 10% 至 14%。

This growth will come from volume, restructuring, and net productivity, more than offsetting growth investments and stranded costs.

這種成長將來自數量、重組和淨生產力，足以抵消成長投資和擱淺成本。

We expect non-op headwinds of approximately $0.40, half from FX due to recent strengthening of the US dollar and the other half from below the line items, including pension expense, net interest, and tax, partially offset by share buyback.

我們預計非營運阻力約為 0.40 美元，一半來自近期美元走強導致的外匯，另一半來自線下項目，包括退休金支出、淨利息和稅收，部分被股票回購所抵銷。

We plan for our gross share repurchase program in ‘25 to be approximately $1.5 billion dollars.

我們計劃 25 年的股票回購計畫總額約為 15 億美元。

Putting all this together, we expect strong operating performance and capital deployment to drive EPS growth.

綜上所述，我們預期強勁的營運績效和資本配置將推動每股盈餘成長。

As we think about the cadence through the year, we expect sales and EPS to be split equally between the first and second half, in line with historical trends.

當我們考慮全年的節奏時，我們預計上半年和下半年的銷售額和每股盈餘將平均分配，這與歷史趨勢一致。

Within the first half, we expect Q1 sales growth to be similar to Q4, and earnings will reflect the annual equity grants which last year were deferred to Q2.

上半年，我們預計第一季的銷售成長將與第四季相似，獲利將反映去年延後到第二季的年度股權授予。

This will result in Q1 earnings being similar to that of last year, and we expect sequential improvement into Q2 as we lap the Solventum spin items, with earnings being approximately equal between the two halves.

這將導致第一季的收益與去年相似，我們預計，隨著我們採用溶劑化旋轉項目，第二季的收益將連續改善，兩半的收益大致相等。

I want to take a moment to thank the 3M team for the strong finish to the year and am confident in our ability to deliver another strong year in 2025 with growth acceleration, strong margin expansion, and return cash to our shareholders in excess of $3 billion.

我想花點時間感謝 3M 團隊在今年取得了強勁的業績，並相信我們有能力在 2025 年再創輝煌，成長加速、利潤率強勁擴張，並向股東返還超過 30 億美元的現金。

With that, let’s open the call for questions.

接下來，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）Jeff Sprague，垂直研究。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, Bill and Anurag.

早上好，比爾和阿努拉格。

Just on the top line in particular.

特別是在頂線上。

So I was wondering if you could give us a sense of to what degree the operational execution, product development has actually impacted the top line already versus what you expect to play out in 2025, just thinking of some of these product launches and the like came later in the year.

因此，我想知道您能否讓我們了解一下營運執行、產品開發實際上已經在多大程度上影響了營收，以及您預計在 2025 年實現的效果，僅考慮其中一些產品的發布等。些時候。

So perhaps we could start there.

所以也許我們可以從這裡開始。

Good morning, Jeff.

早安，傑夫。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Yeah, we are very pleased with the acceleration.

是的，我們對加速感到非常滿意。

New product introductions, as I mentioned in my remarks, came in above expectations -- in fact, quite a bit above expectations.

正如我在演講中提到的，新產品的推出超出了預期——事實上，遠遠超出了預期。

But it's still very early.

但現在還很早。

A lot of the products that we're launching are what we call class three, so they're incremental.

我們推出的許多產品都是我們所說的第三類產品，所以它們是增量的。

So year one sales on these products are going to be somewhat light, and it will grow over time over the next several years.

因此，這些產品的第一年銷量將會減少，但在接下來的幾年中，銷量將會隨著時間的推移而成長。

More importantly, as we grow our NPI launches next year by double digit, we shift to more what I call higher-octane or class four-type products, which have more sales capability.

更重要的是，隨著明年我們的新產品推出量以兩位數成長，我們將轉向更多我所說的高辛烷值或四類產品，這些產品具有更強的銷售能力。

We'd likely see more impact on the top line from these launches.

我們可能會看到這些產品的推出對營收產生更多影響。

It's an important dimension.

這是一個重要的維度。

I think the team has built momentum.

我認為團隊已經建立了勢頭。

It's part of the governance process.

這是治理流程的一部分。

It's a lot of -- it's the enthusiasm of the team.

這很大程度上是團隊的熱情。

Some of it is shifting some resources around.

其中一些正在轉移一些資源。

We added 50 people in Q4, and we moved about another 100 people into R&D development in the quarter.

我們在第四季增加了 50 名員工，並在本季又將約 100 名員工轉移到研發開發部門。

So we're on the right track.

所以我們走在正確的軌道上。

There's a good sign.

有一個好兆頭。

We've got to see it turn into reasonable and substantial margin and income over time.

隨著時間的推移，我們必須看到它轉變為合理且可觀的利潤和收入。

But whatever we've seen in terms of the launches is built into the two to three guidance we see next year.

但無論我們在發布方面看到什麼，都將納入我們明年看到的兩到三個指導中。

Great.

偉大的。

And then maybe just one for Anurag.

然後也許只是阿努拉格的一個。

A lot of conversation last year as we were all trying to fine-tune our models on the restructuring versus stranded costs and the like.

去年我們進行了很多對話，因為我們都在努力調整我們的重組模型和擱淺成本等問題。

Just wonder, within that $0.70 to $1 bridge item, Anurag, if you can give us a little bit of granularity on restructuring investments and stranded costs, in particular.

只是想知道，在 0.70 美元到 1 美元的過渡項目中，Anurag，您是否能為我們提供有關重組投資和擱淺成本的一些詳細信息。

Okay.

好的。

Good morning, Jeff.

早安，傑夫。

Sure, let me do that.

當然，讓我這樣做。

And probably, what I'll do is I'll break the pieces to the bridge.

也許，我要做的就是把橋上的碎片打碎。

So at the midpoint of our EPS guidance, we are growing 10% to 14%, excluding the non-op items, which is quite strong relative to the midpoint of organic growth.

因此，在我們每股盈餘指引的中點，我們的成長率為 10% 到 14%，不包括非營運項目，這相對於有機成長的中點來說相當強勁。

So there are three factors for that.

所以有三個因素。

One of them is sales volume, which creates significant volume leverage as well as incrementals.

其中之一是銷量，它創造了巨大的銷售槓桿和增量。

So a 2.5% volume growth at the midpoint of the guidance and 35% incrementals, that's about $200 million or so.

因此，指導中位數的銷售量成長 2.5%，增量為 35%，約相當於 2 億美元左右。

Second is the lower restructuring cost, to your specific question.

其次是較低的重組成本，就你的具體問題而言。

And that's about a $200 million tailwind into '25.

這大約為 25 世紀帶來了 2 億美元的順風車。

So that's another $200 million.

那麼這又是 2 億美元。

And finally, on the net productivity, that's about $150 million as well, and lots of pieces in that.

最後，就淨生產率而言，也約為 1.5 億美元，其中有許多部分。

The PFAS stranded cost is a negative $100 million.

PFAS 擱淺成本為負 1 億美元。

We're making some growth investments as well, but offsetting that is overall net productivity through the factories, through our SG&A function as well.

我們也在進行一些成長投資，但透過工廠和我們的銷售、一般行政管理職能來抵銷整體淨生產力。

So we put all the three buckets together, it's about $550 million of margin improvement.

因此，我們將這三個部分加在一起，利潤率提高了約 5.5 億美元。

FX is offsetting about $125 million of that.

外匯抵銷了其中約 1.25 億美元。

So the $425 million is at about -- at the midpoint of our 160 basis points of margin expansion.

因此，4.25 億美元大約是我們利潤率擴張 160 個基點的中點。

So those are the three big pieces driving the operational growth of $0.70 to $1.

因此，這些是推動營運成長 0.70 美元至 1 美元的三大因素。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

斯科特·戴維斯，Melius 研究公司。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

Thanks for the shorter presentation, too.

也感謝您的簡短介紹。

Bill, you mentioned the quota pull forward.

比爾，你提到了配額提前。

I think you mentioned something about some changes in the sales organization.

我想你提到了銷售組織的一些變化。

But if we just back up a little bit, what -- perhaps you could just frame what you're trying to change with the sales organization and maybe a little bit more detail and what exactly does that mean when you talk about a quota pull forward for -- as far as trying to drive growth.

但是，如果我們只是備份一點，也許您可以將您試圖與銷售組織進行更改的內容，也許還有更多細節，以及當您談論配額提前時這到底意味著什麼就努力推動增長而言。

Yeah.

是的。

So it's a great question.

所以這是一個很好的問題。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

When I laid out the original plan around driving top-line growth, the basis is around driving more innovation.

當我圍繞著推動營收成長制定最初的計劃時，基礎是推動更多創新。

And that's going to take time, and I commented on that a little while before.

這需要時間，我之前對此發表過評論。

Growth in the near term is going to come from selling more of what we have on the market today.

短期內的成長將來自於今天市場上銷售更多產品。

And that's an important dimension to this, which is just a more aggressiveness in our front-line sales and marketing resources.

這是一個重要的方面，這就是我們的第一線銷售和行銷資源更加積極主動。

They're dealing right now with not a lot of new things to say to the customers because we haven't been innovating as much.

他們現在沒有太多新的東西要向客戶說，因為我們沒有那麼多創新。

And our on-time-in-full performance out of the factories has not been that great.

我們工廠的準時率表現並不是那麼好。

It's improving, but it has not been that great.

它正在改善，但還沒有那麼好。

So the salesforce is challenged in some ways to sell, and I think they've been on their feet in some ways.

因此，銷售人員在某些方面面臨銷售方面的挑戰，我認為他們在某些方面已經站穩了腳跟。

And I think what Chris and the team at SIBG and others across the company are doing is really leaning into this.

我認為 Chris 和 SIBG 團隊以及公司其他人正在做的事情確實傾向於這一點。

So what we're trying to push for is making sure that the sales leaders, the sales reps out in the field, they know what they're expected to do in 2025 early in the year.

因此，我們正在努力推動的是確保銷售領導者、現場銷售代表在年初就知道自己在 2025 年預計要做什麼。

So that's -- they're getting out of gates, January 1, with our quota, their target, specific things around closed (inaudible) wins.

所以，他們將在 1 月 1 日走出大門，帶著我們的配額、他們的目標、圍繞著封閉（聽不清楚）勝利的具體事情。

Typically, that would have been in early April when it rolls out, so a little bit lagged.

通常情況下，它會在四月初推出，所以有點滯後。

So that's why Q1 might not have had some momentum.

這就是為什麼第一季可能沒有一些動力。

A little more structure around how the sales managers and area leaders are working in terms of their cadence, reviewing progress with their sales reps, that's quite important.

圍繞著銷售經理和區域領導者如何工作的節奏、與銷售代表一起審查進度的更多結構，這是非常重要的。

Some of the other dimensions that we're pushing on here is around cross-selling.

我們在這裡推動的其他一些方面是圍繞交叉銷售。

We -- it's a pilot.

我們——這是一名飛行員。

It's six combination pairs that we've done, six or eight different distributors.

我們已經完成了六對組合，六到八個不同的經銷商。

So it's small pieces here.

所以這裡都是小塊。

But in December, we saw some pretty good momentum building.

但在 12 月，我們看到了一些相當好的勢頭。

And I'm pretty optimistic that over this year and next that there's going to be some benefits for cross-selling.

我非常樂觀地認為，今年和明年交叉銷售將會帶來一些好處。

We're working on pricing and reinstituting some price corridors and changing our governance process on pricing.

我們正在研究定價並重新建立一些價格走廊，並改變我們的定價治理流程。

So when you step back, I think all of this gets back to -- the original premise was, we've got to get better at selling what we have today on the marketplace.

因此，當你退後一步時，我認為所有這一切都會回到最初的前提是，我們必須更好地銷售我們今天在市場上擁有的產品。

And that's where the back end of '24 and then most of '25 is going to come from, which is why I think it's important to investors to understand that piece.

這就是 24 年的後端以及 25 年的大部分內容的來源，這就是為什麼我認為投資者了解這一點很重要。

The NPI will come over time.

隨著時間的推移，NPI 將會到來。

I'm very confident about that, but we've got to get better at selling what we have on the market today.

我對此非常有信心，但我們必須更好地銷售當今市場上的產品。

Makes sense, Bill.

有道理，比爾。

And just -- I think when you talk about on-time-in-full, it seems very fundamental.

只是 - 我認為當你談論完全準時時，它似乎非常基本。

But in theory, if you had 100% on-time-in-full, would your growth rate be 100 basis points higher, 200 basis points higher?

但從理論上講，如果你的準時率達到 100%，你的成長率會高出 100 個基點、200 個基點嗎？

Is there any way to narrow that down?

有什麼辦法可以縮小範圍嗎？

Yes, it's hard to quantify.

是的，這很難量化。

It's a good question.

這是一個好問題。

Clearly, running at 88% is not where we need to be.

顯然，88% 的運行速度並不是我們所需要的。

We're feeling -- we're running around 93 -- a little over 93% in Consumer.

我們感覺——我們在消費者領域運行大約 93%——略高於 93%。

We should be in the high 90s.

我們應該是90後。

That's the expectation of some of the big box retailers.

這是一些大型零售商的期望。

So we're getting there.

所以我們正在實現目標。

We're doing better there.

我們在那裡做得更好。

We're over 90% in the transportation business.

我們90%以上從事運輸業務。

That's good.

那挺好的。

It should be better.

應該會更好。

The concern really is in SIBG, the Safety and Industrial business, in the low 80s.

真正令人擔憂的是 20 世紀 80 年代的 SIBG（安全與工業業務）。

We're definitely losing business for sure there.

我們肯定會失去那裡的業務。

We are not delivering.

我們不發貨。

When somebody needs something right now and we don't have it available, that is causing them to go someplace else even though we have a better brand, sometimes a better product, an attractive price.

當有人現在需要某樣東西而我們沒有提供時，這就會導致他們去其他地方，即使我們有更好的品牌，有時有更好的產品，也有有吸引力的價格。

So it is costing us sales.

所以這導致我們的銷售成本下降。

So I do know that as a fundamental part of driving top line, we've got to get better at exercising the supply chain and making sure we meet our customers' expectations.

所以我確實知道，作為推動營收的基本組成部分，我們必須更好地運用供應鏈並確保滿足客戶的期望。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Bill, you sound a little skeptical about the 1.9% IPI forecast just based on that's where we were at this time last year.

Bill，你聽起來對 1.9% 的 IPI 預測有點懷疑，而這正是我們去年此時的情況。

So I'm just wondering, when you went through the plan process, look at the bottoms up projections from the businesses, and then you overlay that with the top down, what kind of haircuts have you taken to that 1.9%?

所以我只是想知道，當你完成計劃過程時，​​看看企業自下而上的預測，然後你將其與自上而下的預測相疊加，你對這 1.9% 採取了什麼樣的削減措施？

And then that brings me on to my next question, the real question, I guess.

然後這引出了我的下一個問題，我想是真正的問題。

What have you baked in for pricing in 2025?

您對 2025 年定價有何考慮？

And then just going forward, what is the framework here?

接下來，這裡的框架是什麼？

Is it IPI plus price?

是IPI加價格嗎？

Is it IPI multiplied by some factor plus price?

是 IPI 乘以某個因素加上價格嗎？

I mean, any way to think about that growth function going forward?

我的意思是，有什麼方法可以考慮未來的成長函數嗎？

So it's a good question.

所以這是一個好問題。

I think we're going to deconstruct the elements of growth between price and volume and share gain, other parts of it.

我認為我們將解構價格、數量和份額收益之間的成長要素以及其他部分。

But look, we did enter '24 with an expectation that IPI was going to be a bit better, and it softened through the year.

但你看，我們進入 24 年時確實期望 IPI 會好一點，但這一年的情況有所放緩。

There was an expectation of auto builds, and that softened quite a bit in the back end of the year.

人們對汽車製造抱有期望，但在今年年底，這種期望有所減弱。

As we were, three months ago, thinking about IPI in 2025, it was higher than we actually are sitting at today, which is around 2.4%.

三個月前，我們考慮 2025 年的 IPI，它比我們今天的實際水平要高，約為 2.4%。

The auto build was, at that point in time, higher expectation for '25 than we sit here today.

當時對 25 年汽車製造的期望比我們今天坐在這裡的更高。

So these indicators, they're just that.

所以這些指標就是這樣。

They're indicators.

它們是指標。

And we use them.

我們使用它們。

It's an important dimension.

這是一個重要的維度。

But it's a starting point.

但這是一個起點。

Of course, we've done a bottoms-up review of our business.

當然，我們對我們的業務進行了自下而上的審查。

We feel confident that 2% to 3% is the right place to be.

我們相信 2% 到 3% 是合適的位置。

When you look at a blended macro between IPI and GDP, because we're about 80% weighted to IPI, 20% to GDP, it's around 2.1. So the center point at 2.5 is a little bit above the macro.

當你看 IPI 和 GDP 之間的混合宏觀時，因為我們對 IPI 進行了大約 80% 的加權，對 GDP 進行了 20% 的加權，所以約為 2.1。所以 2.5 處的中心點略高於宏。

We know that some of the initiatives we're putting in place around commercial execution, new product development, getting our factories run a bit better, those are all very important dimensions.

我們知道，我們正在圍繞商業執行、新產品開發、讓我們的工廠運作得更好等方面採取一些舉措，這些都是非常重要的方面。

But Nigel, again, it's -- we're two, three weeks into the year.

但奈傑爾，再說一遍，今年已經過了兩三週。

We've got a new administration in Washington.

我們在華盛頓有了新政府。

There's lots of conversations floating around tariffs.

關於關稅有很多討論。

We'll see as the year goes by, both progress and traction of some of the initiatives we have internally plus what happens in the macro, and we'll update investors accordingly.

隨著時間的推移，我們將看到我們內部一些舉措的進展和吸引力以及宏觀方面發生的情況，我們將相應地向投資者通報最新情況。

So right now, we feel good about 2% to 3% as the right place to start in '25.

所以現在，我們感覺 2% 到 3% 是 25 年開始的正確起點。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

And then, Anurag, for you.

然後，阿努拉格，為你。

Thanks for the details on the margin bridge.

感謝您提供有關邊際橋的詳細資訊。

The $150 million of net productivity, that appears to be mainly the payback on (inaudible) actions in 2024.

1.5 億美元的淨生產力似乎主要是 2024 年（聽不清楚）行動的回報。

So I'm just wondering if there's anything from some of the more structural drivers, such as improving OEEE, improving footprint, supply chain, et cetera?

所以我只是想知道是否有一些更具結構性的驅動因素，例如改善 OEEE、改善足跡、供應鏈等等？

Yeah, there is.

是的，有。

So let me break up the $150 million in a little bit more detail, yeah?

那麼讓我更詳細地分解這 1.5 億美元，好嗎？

So first, just on the headwinds over there.

首先，就是面對那邊的逆風。

So I said it was $100 million of stranded costs.

所以我說這是 1 億美元的擱淺成本。

The incremental investments we are making as well, which is about $225 million; some we did in '24, some in '25.

我們也在進行增量投資，約 2.25 億美元；有些是我們在 24 年做的，有些是在 25 年做的。

It's both carryover as well as in year.

它既是結轉也是年度。

So we've added the two together.

所以我們把兩者加在一起。

It's about $325 million-ish, $350 million.

大約是 3.25 億美元左右，3.5 億美元。

Now offsetting that, you're correct.

現在抵消這一點，你是對的。

There is probably $70 million of restructuring benefits, about $280 million.

重組收益大概有7000萬美元，約2.8億美元。

But then to get to the positive $150 million, we're driving about more than $400 million of net productivity.

但為了達到 1.5 億美元的正值，我們需要推動約 4 億多美元的淨生產力。

And that is coming through -- again, through supply chain, be it procurement, more on the G&A efficiency, and a few of the other areas that Bill has spoken about.

這也是透過供應鏈實現的，無論是採購、更多的管理和行政效率，以及比爾談到的其他一些領域。

So overall, I would say the productivity driving is $450 million.

總的來說，我認為生產力驅動是 4.5 億美元。

That's being offset by all these other line items to get us to $150 million.

這被所有其他項目所抵消，使我們達到 1.5 億美元。

Andrew Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安德魯‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Bill, you had mentioned in the conference circuit in December that you saw a bit of an uptick in industrial demand in Q4.

Bill，您在 12 月的巡迴會議上提到，您看到第四季工業需求上升。

Did that continue into January here?

這種情況一直持續到一月嗎？

Do you think it was just related to prebuy ahead of tariffs or could it have been a reflection of maybe some modest recovery in short cycle markets?

您認為這只是與關稅之前的預購有關還是可能反映了短週期市場的溫和復甦？

How would you characterize it?

你會如何描述它？

Yeah.

是的。

So we did see, I'd say, across the industrial part of the portfolio -- I'm not referring to the consumer side, but the industrial part of the portfolio.

所以我想說，我們確實看到了投資組合的工業部分——我指的不是消費者方面，而是投資組合的工業部分。

We did see order rates -- first of all, they're very steady through the quarter, which I think was very positive.

我們確實看到了訂單率——首先，整個季度訂單率非常穩定，我認為這是非常積極的。

They are a tick higher than they were in Q3.

它們比第三季高了一點。

The order rates were somewhat higher than the growth rate -- organic growth rate in the quarter.

訂單率略高於成長率－本季的有機成長率。

So there's a bit of backlog that was built into 2025.

因此，到 2025 年會有一些積壓。

Those are all good indicators.

這些都是很好的指標。

But we are a shorter-cycle business, so we don't really live off backlog.

但我們是一家週期較短的企業，所以我們並不是真正靠積壓生存。

It's more of a book-and-ship type business.

它更像是一種預訂和運輸類型的業務。

But they're small little indicators.

但它們都是很小的指標。

It was pretty broad-based.

它的基礎相當廣泛。

There was no specific region or business that was the driver of it.

沒有特定的地區或業務來推動這一趨勢。

That also is somewhat encouraging.

這也有些令人鼓舞。

Again, it's -- and I contrast that to where we were in Q4 of '23, where I think there was a pretty dramatic tail off in orders towards the back end of December, which got the team a little bit shaken in some ways.

再說一次，我將其與 23 年第四季的情況進行了對比，我認為 12 月底訂單量出現了相當戲劇性的下降，這讓團隊在某些方面受到了一些動搖。

We did not see that happen here.

我們在這裡沒有看到這種情況發生。

So those are all good indicators, which is why when we look at 2%, 2.1% organic growth in Q4 that -- we feel that that's a good floor, if you will, for 2025.

因此，這些都是很好的指標，這就是為什麼當我們看到第四季 2%、2.1% 的有機成長時——如果你願意的話，我們認為這是 2025 年的一個很好的下限。

But I think it's good news.

但我認為這是個好消息。

It's holding steady.

它保持穩定。

And again, it's a reflection of some modestly improvements in the industrial markets.

這再次反映出工業市場的一些適度改善。

But again, it's early days.

但話又說回來，現在還太早。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And Anurag, can you give more color into '25 margin guidance by segment?

Anurag，您能否為 '25 按細分市場的利潤指導提供更多資訊？

And then also comment on (inaudible) margin, particularly in Q4 '24.

然後也對（聽不清楚）利潤率發表評論，特別是在 24 年第 4 季。

It seemed a little weak in Q4 versus the other segments.

與其他細分市場相比，第四季似乎有點疲軟。

Yeah.

是的。

So first, let me talk about Q4, and then I'll get into '25.

首先，讓我談談第四季度，然後我將進入'25。

So overall, Q4 came in better than expected across -- from our expectations, what we gave in the October guide, across all the three segments.

因此，總體而言，第四季度的表現優於我們在 10 月指南中給出的預期，所有三個部分的表現都優於預期。

And as I noted in my prepared comments, it's probably $0.05 higher than where our midpoint of our guide was because of volume and productivity, with FX being the big headwind in the quarter, which was unexpected.

正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，由於交易量和生產力的原因，它可能比我們指南的中點高出 0.05 美元，而外匯是本季度的一大阻力，這是出乎意料的。

Now on TEBG, we did expect the margins to be lower in Q4, seasonally, of course, between Q3 and Q4 because of underabsorption as we clear out inventory.

現在，在 TEBG 上，我們確實預計第四季度的利潤率會較低，當然，季節性地，在第三季和第四季之間，因為我們清理庫存時吸收不足。

So that was a big reason.

所以這是一個很大的原因。

And if you look between Q3 and Q4, sequentially, we improved inventory by eight days.

如果你看看第三季和第四季，我們的庫存依序增加了八天。

So that clearly has an absorption issue.

所以這顯然有吸收問題。

Second is we start making growth investments, which we are seeing in the revenue right now.

其次，我們開始進行成長投資，我們現在在收入中看到了這一點。

That was a driver for it.

那是它的驅動力。

And FX, TEBG does have a fair amount of business outside the US, so that impacts it as well.

就外匯而言，TEBG 在美國以外確實有相當多的業務，因此這也會對其產生影響。

So you put all these three things together, the margin is lower.

所以你把這三件事放在一起，利潤就會更低。

It actually came in better than what we expected.

它實際上比我們預期的要好。

So overall, if I look at all the three business groups for '24, the margins came in a little bit better than expected.

因此，總體而言，如果我查看 24 年所有三個業務部門的情況，就會發現利潤率比預期要好一些。

As we go into '25, we're probably not giving guidance right now very specific to each of the segments.

當我們進入 25 年時，我們現在可能不會針對每個細分市場提供非常具體的指導。

But the 130 to 190 range that we gave in terms of margin expansion, we expect all the three business groups to grow quite a bit.

但我們在利潤率擴張方面給出的 130 至 190 範圍內，我們預計所有三個業務部門都會有相當大的成長。

The TEBG could be a little bit lighter than the other two because they are the PFAS-branded costs.

TEBG 可能比其他兩個輕一些，因為它們是 PFAS 品牌的成本。

A large part of it is in TEBG.

其中很大一部分在 TEBG 中。

But having said that, we expect good margin expansion across all the three business groups.

但話雖如此，我們預計所有三個業務集團的利潤率都會實現良好成長。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Maybe just the first question, I'm trying to understand the sort of operating margin expansion framework.

也許只是第一個問題，我試著了解營業利潤擴張框架。

So you talked about, I think, Anurag, $450 million of overall productivity improvement in 2025.

我想，Anurag，您談到了 2025 年整體生產力提高 4.5 億美元。

In the past or recent past, let's say, Bill, you've talked about that $250 million, $260 million COGS productivity numbers so -- as a sort of annual placeholder.

比爾，在過去或最近的過去，您曾談到 2.5 億美元、2.6 億美元的銷貨成本生產率數字——作為一種年度佔位符。

So just trying to understand the delta between that.

所以只是想了解它們之間的差異。

I'm guessing $450 million is not a medium-term placeholder because you have some extra savings this year from the 2023 plan.

我猜 4.5 億美元不是中期佔位符，因為今年 2023 年計劃中有一些額外的節省。

But maybe just help us understand how to think about productivity on top of that 35% core leverage placeholder.

但也許只是幫助我們理解如何在 35% 核心槓桿佔位符的基礎上考慮生產力。

Sure.

當然。

So Julian, you're correct.

所以朱利安，你是對的。

What we have said is, on the COGS line, 2% net productivity, which is about $250 million.

我們所說的是，在 COGS 線上，淨生產力為 2%，約 2.5 億美元。

The productivity, which I'm talking about is (inaudible) for the company, which also includes SG&A, other parts of the business as well.

我所說的生產力（聽不清楚）是針對公司而言的，其中還包括 SG&A 以及業務的其他部分。

It also has a one quarter of the TSA reimbursement, which overlaps over there, too, right?

它還擁有四分之一的 TSA 報銷，這也與那裡重疊，對吧？

So if you -- so those are the pieces which takes us to $450 million.

所以如果你——那麼這些就是讓我們賺到 4.5 億美元的部分。

I mean, we'll provide more on the Investor Day in terms of the framework looking forward.

我的意思是，我們將在投資者日提供更多關於未來框架的資訊。

But I think our goal is still to get 2% net productivity in COGS and for even on SG&A line to see whatever productivity we can get to offset inflation and other investments that we are making.

但我認為我們的目標仍然是實現 2% 的 COGS 淨生產力，甚至在 SG&A 線上，看看我們能獲得多少生產力來抵消通貨膨脹和我們正在進行的其他投資。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

And I'll leave other medium-term questions for that event.

我將為該活動留下其他中期問題。

So maybe just on the very short term, Anurag, I think you'd mentioned $1.70-ish of EPS adjusted in Q1.

因此，也許只是在非常短期的情況下，Anurag，我想您提到了第一季調整後的 EPS 為 1.70 美元左右。

The first half is just under $4 though, I think, based on that 50% comment.

不過，根據 50% 的評論，我認為上半年的價格略低於 4 美元。

So you've got a decent sequential step up in the second quarter in EPS.

因此，第二季每股收益出現了不錯的連續成長。

Maybe just any very large puts and takes.

也許只是任何非常大的看跌期權和拿取期權。

It seems like organic growth pretty steady year-on-year, but anything you're calling out Q1 to Q2 delta.

看起來有機成長同比相當穩定，但任何你所說的第一季到第二季的增量。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So let me break it up into two parts.

所以讓我把它分成兩個部分。

One is some discrete items in the first quarter, and the second is on the recurring operational performance and non-op impact, which you should see through the year.

一是第一季的一些離散項目，二是關於經常性營運績效和非營運影響，您應該全年看到。

On the discrete items, as I mentioned in my prepared comments, due to the Solventum spin, there were a few pieces.

關於離散項目，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的，由於溶劑旋轉，有一些部分。

But a large part of it was the equity-based compensation, which I called out last year, we accrued in the second quarter.

但其中很大一部分是基於股權的薪酬，我去年就說過，我們在第二季累計了這一點。

And as this year, as we're returning back to historical trends, we'll be accruing it in the first quarter.

今年，當我們回歸歷史趨勢時，我們將在第一季累積它。

This is about a $0.15 headwind in the first quarter, which becomes a tailwind in the second quarter.

這在第一季大約是 0.15 美元的逆風，在第二季度變成了順風。

On the operational side, we'll see good flow-through from volume, lower restructuring costs, TSA absorption, all the productivity that we spoke about which will offset PFAS and mix headwind and also all the growth investments.

在營運方面，我們將看到良好的銷售流動、較低的重組成本、運輸安全管理局的吸收、我們談到的所有生產力，這些生產力將抵消 PFAS 並混合逆風以及所有成長投資。

So this should be about $0.20 to $0.25 of EPS growth in the quarter.

因此，本季 EPS 成長率應約為 0.20 至 0.25 美元。

On the non-op, we have $0.40 for the year.

對於非手術，我們今年有 0.40 美元。

So the first quarter is probably going to be closer to $0.08 to $0.10. So if you put all these items together, Julian, you've got $0.20, $0.25 of operational EPS growth.

因此，第一季的價格可能會接近 0.08 美元至 0.10 美元。因此，朱利安，如果將所有這些項目放在一起，您將獲得 0.20 美元、0.25 美元的營運每股收益成長。

You minus the $0.08 of non-op and the $0.15 of equity-based comp.

您減去 0.08 美元的非營運費用和 0.15 美元的股權補償。

So the earnings are flat to Q1 of last year.

因此，獲利與去年第一季持平。

Now as you move into the second quarter, if we continue the similar trajectory on operating performance and the non-op headwind, it will be $0.10, $0.15 of EPS growth, and then you add back the $0.15 of the equity-based compensation.

現在，當你進入第二季度時，如果我們在經營業績和非經營逆風方面繼續保持類似的軌跡，那麼每股收益增長將是0.10 美元、0.15 美元，然後再加上0.15 美元的基於股權的薪酬。

So the growth in Q2 would be closer to $0.25, $0.30. So that's a bridge between Q1 and Q2.

因此，第二季的成長將接近 0.25 美元、0.30 美元。這是 Q1 和 Q2 之間的橋樑。

And then to your math, the first half and second half should be fairly equal in terms of EPS.

然後根據你的數學計算，上半年和下半年的每股盈餘應該相當相等。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Can you just talk a little bit about -- I'm not sure you mentioned it before, but the price assumption for this year.

您能否簡單談談 - 我不確定您之前是否提到過，但今年的價格假設。

No, we've not talked about that.

不，我們還沒有討論過這件事。

I don't think we're going to disaggregate organic growth.

我認為我們不會分解有機成長。

And it's embedded in the 2% to 3%.

而且它嵌入在 2% 到 3% 的人群中。

I think as we said before in the past, we do get price increases.

我認為正如我們過去所說，我們確實會漲價。

The price increases cover mature cost inflation.

價格上漲掩蓋了成熟的成本通膨。

And I expect it to be in a similar magnitude in '25, but we're not going to get that specific number here today.

我預期 25 年也會有類似的幅度，但今天我們不會得到這個具體數字。

And is that a net positive or you're just covering it?

這是一個淨正面的結果還是你只是在掩蓋它？

No, it will be a net positive in this year, yeah.

不，今年這將是淨積極的，是的。

Okay.

好的。

And then just one follow-up.

然後只有一個後續行動。

On the T&E segment in the fourth quarter, margin was a little bit weaker than we were expecting.

第四季旅遊與娛樂業務的利潤率略低於我們的預期。

Anything in particular going on there in the fourth.

第四節中發生的任何特別的事情。

No.

不。

In fact, as I mentioned earlier, Steve, it's probably a little bit better than expected.

事實上，正如我之前提到的，史蒂夫，情況可能比預期要好一些。

Nothing unusual.

沒什麼不尋常的。

This is -- it's a combination of seasonality as you bring inventory down, some growth investments we made.

這是季節性的結合，因為你降低了庫存，我們做了一些成長投資。

But as you move into '25, you should see margin expansion again in TEBG.

但隨著進入 25 年，您應該會看到 TEBG 的利潤率再次擴大。

TEBG was actually our highest margin expansion segment in '24 by growing over 220 basis points.

TEBG 實際上是我們 24 年利潤率擴張最高的部門，成長超過 220 個基點。

So I would say nothing unusual other than the fourth quarter.

所以除了第四季之外我不會說任何不尋常的事情。

It's just timing of different things.

只是不同事情發生的時間不同而已。

And then sorry, one more.

然後抱歉，再來一張。

Just on the corporate side, a little bit lower in expense this year.

僅在企業方面，今年的支出略有下降。

How does that look going forward?

未來前景如何？

Is that a sustainable number in the model going forward in the '26, '27, the corporate side?

在企業方面，這個數字在 26 年、27 年未來的模式中是可持續的嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

We'll talk about '25 right now, first, Steve.

我們現在先討論 25 年，史蒂夫。

On '25, two pieces over there, both equal.

25 年，那邊有兩塊，都是相等的。

It's about $60 million each.

每人約6000萬美元。

One is just a reallocation between corporate and the business group.

一是企業與事業群之間的重新分配。

This is one last quarter of overlap over there because we did it for nine months of the year.

這是那裡重疊的最後一個季度，因為我們一年做了九個月。

So one is just a reallocation.

所以其中之一就是重新分配。

And the second is covering the TSA absorption costs, about $60 million.

第二個是 TSA 吸收費用，約 6000 萬美元。

So those are the only two pieces in corporate.

所以這是公司中僅有的兩件事。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

安德魯‧奧賓，美國銀行。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Good morning.

早安.

How are you?

你好嗎？

Can we just talk about free cash flow, good improvement in free cash flow conversion this year?

我們可以只談談自由現金流嗎？

As we think about next year, this squiggly line 100% free cash flow conversion, what working capital benefit do you have dialed in?

當我們考慮明年時，這條彎曲的線 100% 自由現金流轉換，您撥入了多少營運資金效益？

And what are there offsets in terms of cash flow to keep it at 100% because you do have working capital relief program and I would have expected that you could deliver over 100% quite sustainably for a number of years?

就現金流而言，有哪些抵銷措施可以使其保持在 100%，因為你們確實有營運資金減免計劃，而且我預計你們可以在幾年內相當可持續地交付超過 100% 的現金流？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Yeah, we did very well in '24, as you could see, 111% conversion, really good on the working capital as well where we improved the cash conversion cycle by eight days.

是的，我們在 24 年做得非常好，正如您所看到的，轉換率達到 111%，在營運資金方面非常出色，而且我們將現金轉換週期縮短了 8 天。

It's early days right now in '25.

現在還處於 25 年初。

The reason we put 100% conversion is once CapEx is in line with depreciation, we'll continue to invest on the growth side as well as sustainability, the CapEx in line with depreciation.

我們採用 100% 轉換的原因是，一旦資本支出與折舊一致，我們將繼續在成長方面以及永續性方面進行投資，資本支出與折舊一致。

On the working capital, two things.

關於營運資金，有兩件事。

As revenue goes up, obviously, we're going to consume more on the receivables side.

顯然，隨著收入的增加，我們將在應收帳款方面消耗更多。

Well, we continue to offset it by inventory.

好吧，我們繼續透過庫存來抵消它。

The goal is to get to 75 days.

目標是達到 75 天。

We showed good progress in '24; we'll continue that in '25.

我們在 24 年取得了良好的進展；我們將在 25 年繼續這樣做。

Now we strive to do better than that.

現在我們努力做得更好。

So as the year goes by, if we do better on inventory to offset the DSO impact, there could be more than 100%.

因此，隨著時間的推移，如果我們在庫存方面做得更好，以抵消 DSO 的影響，可能會超過 100%。

But that's the number we're going to start with and move from there.

但這就是我們要開始並從那裡開始的數字。

All right, great.

好吧，太好了。

And just a question on abrasives and industrial specialties.

只是一個關於磨料和工業專業的問題。

It seems to be a nice canary in the coal mine short-cycle business.

這似乎是煤礦短週期業務中的一隻不錯的金絲雀。

It's been consistently declining for a while.

一段時間以來，它一直在持續下降。

You do sound more optimistic.

聽起來你確實更樂觀了。

But if you look at these numbers, they seem to be relatively flat for the past four to six quarters.

但如果你看一下這些數字，它們在過去四到六個季度中似乎相對持平。

Any visibility there?

那裡有能見度嗎？

When do they turn positive?

他們什麼時候轉為陽性？

What are you seeing in the channel?

在頻道中看到了什麼？

What are you seeing at inventory levels at OEMs?

您對 OEM 的庫存水準有何看法？

I know auto is probably a decent market there, but just more color as to when do you think these businesses could turn.

我知道那裡的汽車市場可能是一個不錯的市場，但更多關於你認為這些業務何時會轉變的問題。

So good question.

好問題。

I mean, so both businesses in the year were down low-single digits.

我的意思是，今年兩家公司的業績都出現了低個位數的下滑。

They're very different.

他們非常不同。

Industrial specialties is a grouping of lots of different pieces.

工業專業是許多不同部分的組合。

Some are growing, some are not.

有些正在成長，有些則沒有。

Overall, it's been declining, but we see that flattening out and starting to grow over time.

總體而言，它一直在下降，但我們看到隨著時間的推移，這種趨勢趨於平緩並開始成長。

On the abrasive side, we should see a better '25 than '24.

在磨損方面，我們應該會看到 '25 比 '24 更好。

Part of it is because of the industrial economy.

部分原因是工業經濟。

Part of it is because of the launch of a new product offering called Cubitron 3 that we launched over the last year.

部分原因是我們去年推出了一款名為 Cubitron 3 的新產品。

It's now moving into a variety of different instantiations of different abrasive products.

現在它正在轉向不同磨料產品的各種不同實例。

It's growing.

它正在增長。

It's got tremendous differentiation versus competitors.

與競爭對手相比，它具有巨大的差異化。

So we feel very positive about that.

所以我們對此感到非常積極。

So we see that getting a little bit better here in '25.

所以我們看到 25 年情況有所改善。

Part of it is because of the new products being introduced.

部分原因是新產品的推出。

So we think it's going to both turn the corner here in '25.

所以我們認為這兩者都將在 25 年迎來轉機。

But no commitment Q1, Q2, nothing specific like that?

但沒有承諾 Q1、Q2，沒有什麼具體的內容嗎？

It's a little bit granular.

它有點顆粒狀。

We'll come out -- I probably can say more about this at the Investor Day when Chris talks about the individual components of this business, but nothing more today.

我們會出來的——我可能可以在投資者日克里斯談論該業務的各個組成部分時對此進行更多討論，但今天僅此而已。

You asked about the inventory in the channel.

您詢問了渠道中的庫存狀況。

That's been pretty normalized.

這已經相當正常化了。

There's not any significant concern one way or the other about inventory in the industrial channel.

對於工業通路的庫存，沒有任何重大擔憂。

So that's not really the big driver here.

所以這並不是真正的主要驅動力。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

梅赫羅特拉 (Amit Mehrotra)，瑞銀集團。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Morning, everybody.

早安，大家。

Anurag, one of the things that obviously stood out to me is the expectation for profit growth to be well in excess of revenue growth for this year.

阿努拉格，對我來說明顯突出的事情之一是今年利潤成長將遠遠超過營收成長的預期。

You obviously provided a very helpful walk around how we get there.

顯然，您為我們如何到達那裡提供了非常有幫助的指導。

But as we're coming up in late February, we think about the multi-year outlook, do we expect a high level of incrementals to be sustainable?

但當我們進入二月底時，我們會考慮多年前景，我們是否預期高水準的增量是可持續的？

It doesn't have to be over 100%, but can we expect a higher level of incrementals on a sustainable basis as some of these cost initiatives have legs?

不一定要超過 100%，但我們能否期望在可持續的基礎上實現更高水準的增量，因為其中一些成本措施是有效的？

And I also assume cash flow is going to grow in excess of earnings growth over the next several years.

我還假設未來幾年現金流的成長將超過獲利成長。

And if you could just talk about that -- and I'm trying to square that with a 2025 buyback guide.

如果你能談談這一點——我正在嘗試將其與 2025 年回購指南相結合。

That's a little bit lower than what you kind of exited at from a run rate perspective.

從運行率的角度來看，這比您退出時的值要低一些。

Right.

正確的。

Good morning, Amit.

早安，阿米特。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So on Investor Day, we'll provide a framework as we look out at the medium term as to what's going to drive the sales growth and from the sales.

因此，在投資者日，我們將提供一個框架，以展望中期，推動銷售成長和銷售成長。

Are we going to get gross margin expansion, which is going to flow through to the bottom line.

我們是否會實現毛利率擴張，這將影響利潤。

So you're absolutely correct.

所以你是完全正確的。

We will provide that framework as we get into the end of the month in February, yeah.

是的，我們將在二月底提供該框架。

On the cash flow side, listen, as growth -- as we continue to grow, that is going to be a drag on receivables.

在現金流方面，聽著，隨著我們的不斷增長，這將拖累應收帳款。

But we have put an inventory goal out there for 75.

但我們的庫存目標是 75。

We feel it's a good path for us to get there.

我們認為這是我們實現這一目標的好方法。

We're executing well towards that.

我們在這方面執行得很好。

And it's 100% conversion.

而且轉換率是100%。

If you look historically at 3M, it's been around there.

如果你回顧一下 3M 的歷史，你會發現它一直存在。

But going forward, depending on revenue being the big variable here as well, but on inventory being something we can control, drive would be to be over 100% conversion.

但展望未來，取決於收入也是這裡的大變量，而且庫存是我們可以控制的東西，驅動力將是超過 100% 的轉換率。

Okay.

好的。

Just maybe a bigger picture question for Bill.

對比爾來說，這可能是一個更大的問題。

I would love to get it -- you mentioned earlier about industrial OTIF stubbornly in that low 80% level.

我很想得到它——你之前提到工業 OTIF 頑固地處於 80% 的低水平。

Obviously, that's a pretty big deal, just given the size of that business.

顯然，考慮到該業務的規模，這是一件相當大的事情。

Can you talk about maybe when you expect to see more progress on that and talk a little bit about the manufacturing and DC footprint and when you expect to make more progress on that as well?

您能否談談您希望何時在這方面取得更多進展，並談談製造和 DC 足跡以及您何時希望在這方面取得更多進展？

So Amit, look, I may expect more progress on SIBG OTIF in January.

所以阿米特，你看，我預計 1 月 SIBG OTIF 會取得更多進展。

We expect it in February.

我們預計在二月。

We did not expect the deterioration we saw in November and December.

我們沒有預料到 11 月和 12 月會出現惡化。

Part of it is certain specific issues, quality issues, a couple of specific assets at SIBG.

其中一部分是某些特定問題、品質問題、SIBG 的一些特定資產。

One of the things that I've been reminded about by people is it's a much more complicated portfolio.

人們提醒我的一件事是，這是一個更複雜的投資組合。

It's about 35% more SKUs in SIBG than TEBG and probably more than double the number that's in CBG.

SIBG 中的 SKU 比 TEBG 多出約 35%，並且可能是 CBG 中的兩倍多。

So it's a pretty complicated portfolio.

所以這是一個相當複雜的投資組合。

That being -- and there's been some unique supplier challenges in that business as well.

那就是——該行業也存在一些獨特的供應商挑戰。

But that being said, we expect that business to be closer to 90% this year.

但話雖如此，我們預計今年的業務將接近 90%。

Maybe it's towards the end of the year, but we need to be making sequential improvement throughout the year on SIBG OTIF.

也許是在年底，但我們需要全年對 SIBG OTIF 進行連續改進。

I know Chris is depending upon that, salesforce is depending upon that, and more importantly, our customers are.

我知道克里斯依賴於此，銷售人員依賴於此，更重要的是，我們的客戶也依賴於此。

So that's -- we're on it.

所以，我們正在努力。

We're pushing on it.

我們正在推動它。

It's certainly gotten a lot of attention inside the company, and the team is pretty laser-focused on making those improvements.

它確實在公司內部引起了很多關注，團隊非常專注於進行這些改進。

I think you talked about the complexity as well in the network.

我認為您也談到了網路的複雜性。

Look, I'd say it's part of a longer-term plan in terms of operational excellence.

看，我想說這是卓越營運方面的長期計劃的一部分。

The first part really is making sure that all of our factories have an improvement target, an improvement plan, for how they run their four-wall spend.

第一部分實際上是確保我們所有的工廠都有一個改進目標、一個改進計劃，以管理他們的四牆支出。

We will also be looking at how we can run this network that we have today more efficiently.

我們還將研究如何更有效地運行我們今天擁有的這個網路。

And then over time, as we really mature the operating equipment efficiency metric, which is a measure of utilization of assets -- as that gets more mature, then we can start taking on a little more of a holistic look at the overall network.

然後隨著時間的推移，隨著我們真正成熟的營運設備效率指標（資產利用率的衡量標準）——隨著它變得更加成熟，我們就可以開始對整個網路進行更全面的審視。

But right now, it's really just focused on blocking and tackling inside the factories.

但現在，真的只是專注於工廠內部的封鎖和剷除。

And I think we've got a lot of opportunity in front of us to improve in those dimensions.

我認為我們面前有很多機會在這些方面進行改進。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)，德意志銀行。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Good morning.

早安.

Maybe just starting with China, I think you're expecting a little bit of a slowdown to mid-single digits in 2025, but definitely not too shabby.

也許從中國開始，我認為您預計 2025 年經濟成長會稍微放緩至個位數左右，但絕對不會太糟糕。

I guess, can you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing on the ground there?

我想，你能多談談你在實地看到的情況嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So from a macro perspective, China is expected to slow a little bit, both from a GDP and IPI perspective.

因此，從宏觀角度來看，無論是從GDP或IPI角度來看，中國的成長率預計都會放緩。

But again, it depends on what you believe in those forecasts in those numbers.

但同樣，這取決於你對這些數字的預測的看法。

Now I do think that tariffs could have an effect on what's happening in China, certainly on the export part of China.

現在我確實認為關稅可能會對中國發生的事情產生影響，尤其是對中國的出口部分。

So we're watching it very, very carefully.

所以我們正在非常非常仔細地觀察。

There's news of the minute on tariffs for sure.

肯定有關於關稅的最新消息。

So just stepping back, Nicole, China is about 10% of our revenue globally.

Nicole，退一步來說，中國約占我們全球收入的 10%。

Last year, it was up about 10%.

去年，這一數字成長了約 10%。

It was up about 13% in the first half.

上半年上漲約13%。

It slowed down in the back.

它在後面放慢了速度。

Part of it is from electronics.

其中一部分來自電子產品。

When I look at -- so half the business is export, and that's been -- electronics has been an important driver.

當我觀察時，一半的業務是出口，而電子產品一直是重要的驅動力。

But the other half, that's really, if you will, China for China, that did grow.

但另一半，如果你願意的話，確實是中國的中國，確實成長了。

It was up about 3% last year.

去年上漲了約3%。

So we saw a decent growth on the ground, not quite at macro, but decent growth.

因此，我們看到了不錯的實際成長，雖然不是宏觀成長，但還是不錯的成長。

We had quite a bit of activity in December, quite a bit of activity happening here in January.

十二月我們有很多活動，一月這裡也有很多活動。

Again, it's -- you never know.

再說一次，你永遠不知道。

It could be some pull aheads.

這可能是一些領先。

It could be just getting ahead of Chinese New Year, which is end of January.

可能是在一月底的中國農曆新年之前。

We do expect that our business in China will be slower in '25 than it was in 2024.

我們確實預期 25 年我們在中國的業務將比 2024 年慢。

Probably in the low single-digit range is what we expect for revenue for 3M in China.

我們預計 3M 在中國的收入可能會在較低的個位數範圍內。

Got it.

知道了。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

And then any update on insurance recoveries?

那麼保險賠償方面有什麼更新嗎？

I think you promised us an update each quarter.

我想您曾經向我們承諾每個季度都會更新一次。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So we've -- we're making progress on insurance.

所以我們在保險方面正在取得進展。

And we're actively engaged in arbitration, negotiations in some places, litigation with insurance carriers for both for PWS and Combat Arms.

我們正在積極參與仲裁，在一些地方進行談判，以及與保險公司就 PWS 和 Combat Arms 進行訴訟。

In Q4, we recovered about $170 million.

第四季度，我們收回了約 1.7 億美元。

So to date, so through last year, it was about $340 million, mostly in the Combat Arms area.

到目前為止，截至去年，這筆金額約為 3.4 億美元，主要用於作戰武器領域。

Again, we're pretty active in pushing this.

同樣，我們非常積極地推動這一點。

The legal teams are driving this pretty hard.

法律團隊正在努力推動此事。

And as I said last time, I'll say it again, we expect our insurers to honor the commitments they have to us and their policies.

正如我上次所說，我會再說一遍，我們希望我們的保險公司履行他們對我們及其保單的承諾。

And we're going to make sure that they go and do that.

我們將確保他們去做這件事。

So that's where we stand today.

這就是我們今天的立場。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

喬奧迪，富國銀行。

hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Just wanted to ask on cash and just what you think the right amount of cash to carry is.

只是想詢問現金以及您認為攜帶多少現金合適。

So you ended the year with cash and marketable securities at about $7.7 billion.

因此，年底時您的現金和有價證券約為 77 億美元。

Where do you expect to end 2025?

您預計 2025 年會在哪裡結束？

And then thinking maybe a little bit further out, just what you think the right amount of cash to have is whether it's a percent of sales or a dollar amount?

然後想得更遠一點，你認為正確的現金金額是銷售額的百分比還是美元金額？

Hey, Joe. It's Anurag here.

嘿，喬。這裡是阿努拉格。

So we -- as you correctly said, we ended the year at $7.7 billion.

因此，正如您所說，我們年底的收入為 77 億美元。

It's probably 2x of the working capital requirement for the business.

這可能是企業營運資金需求的兩倍。

If you look at '25, we said we're going to buy back shares worth $1.5 billion.

如果你看看 25 年，我們說我們將回購價值 15 億美元的股票。

At current dividend rate, we're paying about $1.5 billion, $1.6 billion in dividends, $3 billion.

以目前的股息率，我們支付約 15 億美元，其中 16 億美元為股息，30 億美元。

We got $3 billion to settle on Combat Arms and PWS as well.

我們還獲得了 30 億美元來解決 Combat Arms 和 PWS 問題。

So these are the big ones we have for the year, and our plan is to refinance the majority of our debt.

這些是我們今年的重大債務，我們的計劃是為大部分債務進行再融資。

So if you put all of that together, we should end '25 at over $6 billion in cash.

因此，如果將所有這些加在一起，到 25 年結束時，我們應該擁有超過 60 億美元的現金。

And then also, Bill, on industrial production and -- what are you watching most closely there, whether it's a region or whether it's an end market, in terms of how you're thinking about where the best potential sits for this accelerating industrial production that we're all waiting for?

然後，比爾，關於工業生產，以及您最密切關注的是什麼，無論是一個地區還是終端市場，以及您如何思考加速工業生產的最佳潛力在哪裡我們都在等什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

So we're looking at all the different pieces.

所以我們正在研究所有不同的部分。

Obviously, we're pretty levered to the manufacturing economy within IPI.

顯然，我們對 IPI 內的製造業經濟的槓桿作用很大。

So that's an important one.

所以這是一個重要的事情。

And we're a little bit heavier weighted in the US and probably Europe and others after that.

我們在美國、歐洲和其他國家的權重稍重。

So clearly, US is an important focus of ours in watching IPI.

顯然，美國是我們觀察IPI的一個重要焦點。

The current forecast is it does turn positive from a minus 0.3 to plus 0.5, I think, is what it was in 2025.

目前的預測是，我認為 2025 年的情況確實會從負 0.3 轉為正 0.5。

And Europe, we have to watch.

而歐洲，我們必須關注。

We've got a pretty good presence in Europe as well.

我們在歐洲也有很好的影響力。

It's a very big turnaround in Europe from down 60 basis points to up 130 basis points next year.

歐洲明年的利率從下降 60 個基點上升到 130 個基點，這是一個非常大的轉變。

That's a pretty big movement.

這是一個相當大的動作。

So those are the key things that we're looking at, I think, pretty carefully on IPI.

我認為，這些是我們在 IPI 上非常仔細研究的關鍵問題。

And that's on the industrial side.

這是在工業方面。

On auto, look, I'm a little bit concerned about that only because we had some deterioration last year.

在汽車方面，你看，我對此有點擔心，只是因為去年我們的情況有些惡化。

The auto build forecast for this year is weakened a little bit, down 60 basis points.

今年的汽車製造預測略有減弱，下調了 60 個基點。

But when you -- as I mentioned in my remarks, when you disaggregate that, US and Europe are down 3 to 4 points.

但是，正如我在演講中提到的，當你將其分解時，美國和歐洲下降了 3 到 4 個百分點。

China is flat, and the rest of Asia is up a little bit.

中國持平，亞洲其他地區略有上升。

So we have to watch that and look at where our content per vehicle happens to be.

所以我們必須觀察這一點，看看每輛車的內容恰好在哪裡。

Obviously, the team is very focused on gaining share, gaining content in those automakers that are growing faster.

顯然，該團隊非常注重在那些成長更快的汽車製造商中獲得份額和內容。

That's a very important strategic focus of Wendy and her team.

這是溫蒂和她的團隊非常重要的戰略重點。

But those are some of the things that we're looking at from a macro perspective.

但這些是我們從宏觀角度看待的一些事情。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I wanted to circle back on the strategies for reinvigorating new product introductions, but specifically reinvigorating innovation.

我想回顧一下重振新產品推出的策略，特別是重振創新。

I know we're going to start off the analyst event at the technology center.

我知道我們將在技術中心開始分析師活動。

Just -- I think there's art and science here when it comes to innovation.

只是——我認為創新涉及藝術和科學。

I'd just be interested in your thoughts.

我只是對你的想法感興趣。

You can't just dump cash at the front door and say, innovate.

你不能只是把現金丟在前門然後說，創新。

But I know you're adding some headcount.

但我知道你正在增加一些員工人數。

Are there any other thoughts there in terms of ramping up innovation?

在加強創新方面還有其他想法嗎？

And how do you feel about that long-standing policy at 3M R&D, where the senior scientists get 15% of unbudgeted time?

您對 3M 研發部的長期政策有何看法，即資深科學家獲得 15% 的未預算時間？

Does that still fit into the equation?

這仍然符合方程式嗎？

Look, so 15% of time is a hallmark of the company.

看，15% 的時間是公司的標誌。

I joked it's 115%, not going from 85% to 100%, but everyone gets through 15%.

我開玩笑說這是 115%，不是從 85% 到 100%，但每個人都經歷了 15%。

And I think that's important because it gives people a time to step back and think and ponder.

我認為這很重要，因為它讓人們有時間退後一步思考和沈思。

I mean, I do the same thing.

我的意思是，我也做同樣的事情。

I go into my office that I think about what are the issues upon the company.

我走進辦公室思考公司面臨的問題是什麼。

And we all have to do that.

我們都必須這樣做。

So I think that's a hallmark of the culture of the organization.

所以我認為這是該組織文化的標誌。

I think the first -- look, it's not a shortage of ideas in concept for where we can innovate.

我認為第一名——看，我們並不缺乏創新概念。

I think we've got a great list of products.

我認為我們已經有了一份很棒的產品清單。

As you turn the scientists, the engineers on, the people doing product development, those in the business units, those out meeting with the customers themselves, the ideas are there.

當你調動科學家、工程師、產品開發人員、業務部門的人員以及與客戶會面的人員時，想法就在那裡。

The pipeline is pretty full.

管道已經很滿了。

We've got to do more to keep filling it up.

我們必須做更多的事情來繼續填補它。

But the pipeline has been full.

但管道已經滿了。

I think it's about just turning on that -- and unleashing that energy that's in the folks that do the innovation.

我認為關鍵在於開啟這一點，並釋放創新人員的能量。

And so part of it is eliminating some of the bottlenecks in the processes, and I went through last time a number of pieces of that.

因此，其中一部分是消除流程中的一些瓶頸，我上次經歷了其中的一些部分。

We are shifting within our capital budget more investment to R&D for lab equipment, for prototype equipment to speed up the prototyping and scaling up of innovation.

我們正在資本預算內將更多投資轉向實驗室設備和原型設備的研發，以加速原型設計和創新規模化。

We are adding resources there.

我們正在那裡添加資源。

I think if you put the right framework in place and you're motivating the teams in the way we are, and we're starting to focus people on the growth verticals that we really want to focus our investment and time on, I do think that, that's going to pay dividends over time.

我認為，如果你建立了正確的框架，並以我們現在的方式激勵團隊，並且我們開始將人們的注意力集中在我們真正希望將投資和時間集中在的成長垂直領域，我確實認為隨著時間的推移，這將會帶來紅利。

This is something that Wendy in TEBG is going to lay out pretty clearly when we get out to the end of February when we have our Investor Day.

這是 TEBG 的 Wendy 在 2 月底投資者日時非常清楚闡述的內容。

How do we get closer to those innovation partners so that we're really tied with them very closely, so their ideas translate back to us?

我們如何拉近與這些創新合作夥伴的距離，使我們與他們真正緊密地聯繫在一起，從而將他們的想法轉化為我們？

And we're working with them in not a transactional way, but in a strategic way.

我們與他們合作不是以交易方式，而是以策略方式。

And I think if you do all of these things, this machine will turn on.

我認為如果你做了所有這些事情，這台機器就會啟動。

And again, we saw good progress over the last six months.

過去六個月我們再次看到了良好的進展。

It's early days.

現在還早。

I think we'll have another good year in '25.

我認為我們將在 25 年迎來另一個美好的一年。

But ultimately, this is going to come down to, are we growing faster than the market?

但最終，這將歸結為，我們的成長速度是否快於市場？

Therefore, we're gaining share.

因此，我們正在獲得份額。

And are we driving margin and margin expansion because the products we're offering to the marketplace are better than what the competition puts on the marketplace?

我們是否因為我們向市場提供的產品比競爭對手投放市場的產品更好而推動了利潤率和利潤率的擴張？

And I think that's the end objective.

我認為這就是最終目標。

We have a good start.

我們有一個好的開始。

That's great to hear, especially that support of that 15% unbudgeted time.

很高興聽到這個消息，尤其是對那 15% 的預算外時間的支持。

That's -- I'm sure a lot of people like hearing that.

我相信很多人都喜歡聽這個。

And then just second question, a quick follow-up on the plan for reducing inventory days.

接下來是第二個問題，即減少庫存天數計劃的快速跟進。

I mean, I know there's an immediate benefit for free cash flow.

我的意思是，我知道自由現金流會帶來立竿見影的好處。

But is there any pressure on service levels once you start to reduce the level of inventory?

但是，一旦開始降低庫存水平，服務水準是否會受到壓力？

And is there any trade-off there?

那裡有什麼權衡嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Look, that's something that we're watching very, very carefully.

看，這是我們正在非常非常仔細地觀察的事情。

We came down two days year over year.

我們一年比一年下來兩天。

I think it was eight days sequentially in Q4.

我認為第四季連續八天。

In SIBG, we saw sort of OTIF come back.

在 SIBG，我們看到了 OTIF 的回歸。

So we're watching this very carefully.

所以我們正在非常仔細地觀察這一點。

Our intention is to prioritize OTIF over inventory, frankly.

坦白說，我們的目的是優先考慮 OTIF 而不是庫存。

That's what we think is really important.

這就是我們認為非常重要的。

That's a greater lever.

這是一個更大的槓桿。

That being said, there are opportunities to eliminate the waste, if you will, in inventory.

話雖如此，如果您願意的話，還是有機會消除庫存中的浪費。

Not all the inventory we have is good inventory.

並非我們所有的庫存都是優質庫存。

We have a lot that's stuck on the water.

我們有很多東西被困在水面上。

We have a lot of components in warehouses and factories.

我們的倉庫和工廠裡有很多組件。

We have to make sure we have the right inventory.

我們必須確保我們擁有正確的庫存。

That's why I believe this is the (inaudible) I believe that we can get to 75 days and over 90% OTIF.

這就是為什麼我相信這是（聽不清楚）我相信我們可以達到 75 天和超過 90% 的 OTIF。

And I think we can get there.

我認為我們可以做到這一點。

That's our goal.

這就是我們的目標。

That's what we ought to be shooting for.

這就是我們應該努力的目標。

It's not going to be linear, and we saw it in Q4.

它不會是線性的，我們在第四季度看到了這一點。

It wasn't linear.

這不是線性的。

We had better inventory, not as good on OTIF, at least in one segment.

我們有更好的庫存，但不如 OTIF，至少在某個領域是如此。

But that's the objective.

但這就是目標。

And again, we're going to prioritize OTIF over inventory, knowing that we'll get the inventory over time.

再說一次，我們將優先考慮 OTIF 而不是庫存，因為我們知道隨著時間的推移我們會獲得庫存。

This concludes the question-and-answer portion of our conference call.

我們電話會議的問答部分到此結束。

I will now turn the call back over to Bill Brown for some closing comments.

我現在將把電話轉回給比爾布朗，徵求一些結束語。

Okay.

好的。

Well, thank you.

嗯，謝謝。

I appreciate everyone's time and attention today.

我感謝大家今天的時間和關注。

I know we're running top of the hour here, but I want to thank all of the 3Mers for their continued hard work and dedication to our customers and our shareholders.

我知道我們現在處於領先地位，但我要感謝所有 3Mers 的持續辛勤工作以及對我們的客戶和股東的奉獻。

I look forward to introducing you all, analysts and investors, to the senior leadership team at 3M at our Investor Day coming up on February 26 in St. Paul.

我期待在 2 月 26 日於聖保羅舉行的投資者日向各位分析師和投資者介紹 3M 的高階領導團隊。

It's going to be brisk.

將會是輕快的。

Today is minus 18, so dress warmly.

今天氣溫為零下18 度，請穿得暖和一點。

So we look forward to seeing you on the 26th.

所以我們期待 26 日見到您。

Thank you very much, and have a good day.

非常感謝，祝您有美好的一天。

We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line at this time.

我們感謝您的參與，並請您此時斷開線路。