在第三季財報電話會議上,3M 報告稱,其營運執行力強勁,超出獲利預期,自由現金流較去年同期實現兩位數成長。該公司專注於提高績效、精簡組織和改善供應鏈績效。他們還討論了醫療保健部門分拆的進展,並宣布了一項旨在提高生產力和利潤率的重組計劃。
儘管市場存在一些不利因素和通貨膨脹因素,3M 仍在努力降低成本並保持良好的價格/成本平衡。該公司預計今年的利潤率約為 20%,第四季的營收指引在 76 億美元至 77 億美元之間。
3M 致力於執行其策略並優先考慮高成長市場。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 3M Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Tuesday, October 24, 2023.
女士們、先生們,感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 3M 第三季財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)提醒一下,本次會議將於 2023 年 10 月 24 日星期二進行錄製。
I would now like to turn the call over to Bruce Jermeland, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at 3M.
現在我想將電話轉給 3M 公司投資者關係資深副總裁 Bruce Jermeland。
Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR
Bruce Jermeland - VP of IR
Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter earnings conference call. With me today are Mike Roman, 3M's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Monish Patolawala, our President and Chief Financial Officer. Mike and Monish will make some formal comments and then we'll take your questions. Please note that today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call are posted on the homepage of our Investor Relations website at 3m.com.
謝謝大家,早安,歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有 3M 公司董事長兼執行長 Mike Roman;以及我們的總裁兼財務長 Monish Patolalawala。麥克和莫尼什將發表一些正式評論,然後我們將回答您的問題。請注意,今天的收益報告和本次電話會議的幻燈片演示已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站 3m.com 的主頁上。
Please turn to Slide 2. Please take a moment to read the forward-looking statement. During today's conference call, we'll be making certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M's future performance and financial results. These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-Q lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.
請翻到投影片 2。請花點時間閱讀前瞻性聲明。在今天的電話會議中,我們將做出一些預測性陳述,反映我們對 3M 未來業績和財務結果的當前看法。這些聲明是基於對未來事件的某些假設和預期,這些假設和預期受風險和不確定性的影響。我們最新的 10-Q 表格第 1A 項列出了一些可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的最重要的風險因素。
Please note throughout today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in the attachments to today's press release.
請注意,在今天的演示中,我們將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標。非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的對帳表可在今天的新聞稿附件中找到。
With that, please turn to Slide 3. And I'll now hand the call off to Mike. Mike?
請翻到幻燈片 3。現在我將把電話交給 Mike。麥克風?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Thank you, Bruce. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. In the third quarter, we built momentum through strong operational execution as we again delivered for our customers, positioning us for a solid close to 2023. On an adjusted basis, we delivered earnings ahead of our expectations, expanded margins sequentially across all four businesses and achieved our third consecutive quarter of double-digit year-on-year growth in free cash flow.
謝謝你,布魯斯。大家早安,感謝大家的收看。第三季度,我們憑藉強大的營運執行力累積了強勁成長勢頭,再次為客戶提供優質服務,為 2023 年的穩健收官奠定了基礎。經調整後,我們的利潤超出預期,四大業務的利潤率均實現環比增長,並且自由現金流連續第三個季度實現兩位數同比增長。
As we make progress and deliver improved financial results, we are increasing our full year adjusted earnings per share guidance to $8.95 to $9.15, up from a previous range of $8.60 to $9.10, and our adjusted free cash flow conversion range to 100% to 110%, up from 90% to 100% previously.
隨著我們取得進展並實現更好的財務業績,我們將全年調整後每股收益預期從之前的 8.60 美元至 9.10 美元上調至 8.95 美元至 9.15 美元,並將調整後自由現金流轉換率從之前的 90% 至 100% 上調至 100% 至 110%。
We continue to deliver against our priorities. We are driving performance throughout 3M with strong operational execution, restructuring actions and spending discipline. We are progressing the spin of the Health Care business, which we expect to be completed during the first half of 2024. And we are reducing risk and uncertainty by reaching significant settlements to address Combat Arms and PFAS litigation. I will now provide some additional context around how we are advancing these priorities.
我們將繼續履行我們的優先事項。我們透過強大的營運執行力、重組行動和支出紀律來推動整個 3M 的表現。我們正在推動醫療保健業務的分拆,預計將於 2024 年上半年完成。同時,我們正在就戰鬥武器和 PFAS 訴訟達成重大和解,以降低風險和不確定性。現在,我將提供一些有關我們如何推進這些優先事項的額外背景資訊。
Next slide, please. Our margin expansion clearly demonstrates the performance our team is driving throughout 3M. We delivered 240 basis points of year-over-year adjusted operating income margin expansion, excluding 80 basis points of restructuring-related charges. We are strengthening our business in several important ways.
請看下一張投影片。我們的利潤率成長清楚地表明了我們的團隊正在推動整個 3M 的表現。我們實現了調整後營業利潤率年增 240 個基點,不包括 80 個基點的重組相關費用。我們正在透過幾種重要方式加強我們的業務。
We are progressing with our restructuring actions to streamline our organization, reduce structural costs and get us closer to customers. We have leaned out the center of our company, simplified our global supply chain organization and optimized our global go-to-market models.
我們正在推動重組行動,以精簡組織、降低結構成本並更貼近客戶。我們精簡了公司的中心,簡化了全球供應鏈組織,並優化了全球市場進入模式。
At the same time, we are advancing supply chain performance to improve service, drive productivity and yield, expand gross margins and increase cash conversion. These results are being supported by initiatives that use our continuous improvement toolkit and leverage data and data analytics. For example, we have benefited from more than 60 kaizen events this year to improve existing processes in our largest plants.
同時,我們正在提升供應鏈績效,以改善服務、提高生產力和產量、擴大毛利率並增加現金轉換率。這些結果得到了使用我們的持續改進工具包並利用數據和數據分析的措施的支持。例如,今年我們參加了 60 多場改善活動,改善了我們最大工廠的現有流程。
We are also progressing the spin of our Health Care business, building the leadership team as we work toward completing the spin in the first half of 2024. During the quarter, we added two experienced leaders, naming Bryan Hanson as the CEO of the stand-alone Health Care business; and Carrie Cox as the Board Chair.
我們也正在推動醫療保健業務的分拆,組成領導團隊,並努力在 2024 年上半年完成分拆。在本季度,我們增加了兩位經驗豐富的領導者,任命 Bryan Hanson 為獨立醫療保健業務的執行長;並任命 Carrie Cox 為董事會主席。
Finally, we continue to manage risk and uncertainty by proactively and effectively managing litigation. We announced the Combat Arms settlement. And we are working with all parties and the courts to implement it. The settlement administration process has been established and funded. The bellwether trial verdicts have been settled. And the process for notifying and settling with claimants has begun.
最後,我們透過積極有效地管理訴訟來繼續管理風險和不確定性。我們宣布了戰鬥武器解決方案。我們正在與各方和法院合作實施該法案。和解管理程序已經建立並獲得資金。具有里程碑意義的審判結果已經塵埃落定。通知和與索賠人達成和解的程序已經開始。
With respect to PFAS, the public water supplier settlement we announced last quarter has received preliminary court approval. We successfully resolved objections from state attorneys general and are working toward approval with the final hearing set for early February next year.
關於 PFAS,我們在上個季度宣布的公共供水商和解協議已獲得法院初步批准。我們成功解決了州檢察長的反對意見,並正在努力爭取批准,最終聽證會定於明年 2 月初舉行。
In closing, I want to share a few thoughts about our future. Our momentum accelerates our ability to define where we go next at 3M as we prioritize attractive markets where we have the right to win and the opportunity to differentiate ourselves through our unique capabilities and strengths.
最後,我想分享一些關於我們未來的想法。我們的勢頭加速了我們確定 3M 下一步發展方向的能力,因為我們優先考慮具有吸引力且我們有機會透過獨特的能力和優勢實現差異化的市場。
A good example is our automotive OEM business, where we continue to outperform the market with double-digit growth this quarter. Auto electrification is on track to be a $600 million business this year and has delivered organic growth of 30% year-to-date. Our material science expertise has led us to build a new business.
我們的汽車 OEM 業務就是一個很好的例子,本季我們繼續以兩位數的成長超越市場。汽車電氣化今年有望成為一項價值 6 億美元的業務,今年迄今已實現 30% 的有機成長。我們的材料科學專業知識引領我們建立新的業務。
And we see similar opportunities in other core platforms such as safety, home improvement and consumer electronics. We are also prioritizing emerging global trends that have attractive growth rates and customer needs that match up well with 3M capabilities. We are building new platforms in areas like climate technology, industrial automation and next-generation electronics.
我們在安全、家裝和消費電子等其他核心平台也看到了類似的機會。我們還優先考慮具有有吸引力的成長率和與 3M 能力相符的客戶需求的新興全球趨勢。我們正在氣候技術、工業自動化和下一代電子等領域建立新的平台。
Before I hand it over to Monish for additional insight into our performance, a few closing thoughts. I am pleased with the way our teams are executing. They delivered third quarter results that build on the momentum we saw in the second quarter, setting us up for a solid close to 2023.
在我將其交給 Monish 以進一步了解我們的表現之前,我想說幾點結束語。我對我們團隊的執行方式感到滿意。他們發布的第三季業績延續了第二季的勢頭,為我們在 2023 年取得穩健的業績奠定了基礎。
We are advancing our priorities, driving performance, progressing our Health Care spin and reducing risk and uncertainty. 3M is delivering today lower cost, better margins and greater cash generation and building for tomorrow, prioritizing growth platforms, innovating with impact and empowering our teams.
我們正在推動我們的優先事項,提高績效,推動我們的醫療保健轉型並降低風險和不確定性。 3M 目前正在降低成本、提高利潤率、創造更多現金,並為未來發展而努力,優先發展成長平台,進行有影響力的創新,並增強我們團隊的能力。
I will now turn it over to Monish for more details on the third quarter and our outlook for the rest of the year. Monish?
現在我將把時間交給 Monish,以了解有關第三季度的更多詳細資訊以及我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。莫尼什?
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Thank you, Mike, and I wish you all a very good morning. Please turn to Slide 5. As Mike mentioned, we are seeing significant traction from the actions we are taking to strengthen the business.
謝謝你,麥克,祝大家早安。請翻到投影片 5。正如 Mike 所提到的,我們為加強業務而採取的行動正在產生顯著的推動作用。
Through our focus on customers, effective adjustment of production, benefits from efficiency and productivity initiatives, ongoing proactive spending discipline and the relentless focus on managing inventory, we were able to deliver solid adjusted third quarter results, including: sales of $8 billion, at the high end of our guidance range of $7.9 billion to $8 billion; operating margins of 23.2%, an increase of 160 basis points year-on-year and 390 basis points sequentially; earnings per share of $2.68, a year-on-year increase of 3%; and free cash flow of $1.9 billion, up 39% year-on-year with conversion of 130%.
透過專注於客戶、有效調整生產、受益於效率和生產力舉措、持續主動的支出紀律以及對庫存管理的不懈關注,我們能夠實現穩健的第三季度調整後業績,包括:銷售額為 80 億美元,處於我們 79 億美元至 80億美元指引範圍的高端;營業利益率為23.2%,較去年同期成長160個基點,較上一季成長390個基點;每股盈餘2.68美元,較去年同期成長3%;自由現金流為19億美元,較去年同期成長39%,轉換率為130%。
Organic sales on an adjusted basis declined 3.1% versus last year. This included an expected year-on-year headwind of approximately $140 million or 1.7 percentage points related to lower disposable respirator demand and last year's exit of our operations in Russia. Excluding this, Q3 adjusted organic sales were down 1.4%.
調整後的有機銷售額較去年同期下降 3.1%。其中包括預計將年減約 1.4 億美元或 1.7 個百分點,原因是一次性呼吸器需求下降以及去年我們退出俄羅斯業務。除此之外,第三季調整後的有機銷售額下降了 1.4%。
Consumer and electronics end markets continue to be soft. Our adjusted organic sales declined year-on-year mid-single digits in our electronics business and high single digits in Consumer. This softness was partially offset by strength in our automotive OEM business. Regionally, the U.S. was up slightly despite continued challenges in retail. Europe remains soft, and China was down mid-teens year-on-year organically due to continued end market softness, along with lapping strong sales backlog recovery in the prior year.
消費品和電子產品終端市場持續疲軟。我們的電子業務調整後有機銷售額年減中個位數,消費業務調整後有機銷售額年減高個位數。這種疲軟在一定程度上被我們汽車 OEM 業務的強勁表現所抵消。從地區來看,儘管零售業繼續面臨挑戰,但美國仍略有成長。歐洲市場依然疲軟,而由於終端市場持續疲軟,加上去年銷售積壓訂單強勁復甦,中國市場的有機銷售額年減了 15% 左右。
Our strong adjusted EPS of $2.68 exceeded our expectations of $2.25 to $2.40. Roughly 2/3 of the beat was driven by operational execution in our supply chain and proactive spending discipline and the balance driven by restructuring timing. The restructuring actions we announced earlier this year are largely on track. And we are seeing favorable margin impact in our results. We continue to expect full year pretax restructuring benefits of $400 million to $450 million with offsetting charges.
我們強勁的調整後每股收益為 2.68 美元,超出了我們預期的 2.25 美元至 2.40 美元。大約 2/3 的節拍是由我們的供應鏈中的營運執行和主動支出紀律推動的,其餘部分則由重組時機推動。我們今年稍早宣布的重組行動基本上進展順利。我們看到業績對利潤率產生了有利影響。我們繼續預計全年稅前重組收益將達到 4 億至 4.5 億美元(含抵銷費用)。
Turning to Slide 6 for the components that drove our year-on-year operating margin and earnings performance. Manufacturing productivity and restructuring actions, strong spending discipline and selling prices, partially offset by lower sales volumes, investments in the business and the previously mentioned headwinds from disposable respirator and last year's exit of Russia resulted an improvement to operating margins of 260 basis points and to earnings of $0.22 per share.
請翻到投影片 6,了解推動我們年比營業利益和獲利表現的因素。製造業生產力和重組行動、嚴格的支出紀律和銷售價格,部分抵消了較低的銷售量、業務投資以及前面提到的一次性呼吸器帶來的不利因素和去年退出俄羅斯的影響,導致營業利潤率提高了 260 個基點,每股收益提高了 0.22 美元。
Pretax restructuring and related charges in the quarter were $68 million or a negative impact to margins of 80 basis points and $0.10 to earnings. This charge was lower than our anticipated range of $125 million to $175 million in Q3 due to factors that impacted the timing of actions that are being pushed into Q4. The carryover impact of higher raw material, logistics and energy cost inflation created a year-on-year headwind of approximately $25 million or a negative 30 basis points impact to operating margins and $0.03 to earnings.
本季稅前重組及相關費用為 6,800 萬美元,對利潤率產生 80 個基點的負面影響,對收益產生 0.10 美元的負面影響。由於影響第四季行動時間的因素,該費用低於我們預期的第三季 1.25 億美元至 1.75 億美元。原材料、物流和能源成本上漲的後續影響導致年減約 2,500 萬美元,或對營業利潤率造成 30 個基點的負影響,對收益造成 0.03 美元的負影響。
Foreign currency translation was a positive 0.6% impact to total adjusted sales. This resulted in a $0.01 tailwind to earnings per share. Last year's food safety divestiture and the reconsolidation of Aearo Technologies resulted in a net year-on-year tailwind of 10 basis points to margins and no impact to earnings. Finally, other financial items decreased earnings by a net $0.02 per share year-on-year.
外幣折算對調整後總銷售額產生了 0.6% 的正面影響。這使得每股收益增加 0.01 美元。去年食品安全業務的剝離和 Aearo Technologies 的重組導致利潤率年淨增長 10 個基點,且對收益沒有影響。最後,其他財務項目導致每股收益年淨減少 0.02 美元。
In summary, our team's focus on driving productivity, executing restructuring actions and controlling spending continues to yield results. These actions drove meaningful year-on-year and sequential improvement in adjusted operating margins.
總而言之,我們團隊專注於提高生產力、執行重組行動和控制解決,並繼續取得成果。這些措施推動調整後的營業利益率較去年同期及較上季均有顯著提升。
Please turn to Slide 7. Third quarter adjusted free cash flow was $1.9 billion, up 39% year-on-year with a conversion of 130%, up 360 basis points versus last year's Q3. This year-on-year improvement was driven by our ongoing focus on working capital management, especially inventory. Inventory was down over $200 million sequentially and $550 million year-on-year as we benefit from the power of daily management and data and data analytics to speed up inventory terms.
請翻到幻燈片 7。第三季調整後的自由現金流為 19 億美元,年增 39%,轉換率為 130%,比去年第三季上升 360 個基點。這一同比增長得益於我們持續關注營運資本管理,尤其是庫存。由於我們受益於日常管理、數據和數據分析的力量來加快庫存期限,庫存環比下降超過 2 億美元,比去年同期下降 5.5 億美元。
As always, there is more we can do and will do to continue to realize benefits from our actions as we move forward. Adjusted capital expenditures were $367 million in the quarter, as we continue to invest in growth, productivity and sustainability. During the quarter, we returned $828 million to shareholders via dividends. Net debt at the end of Q3 stood at $10.8 billion, a reduction of 11% year-on-year.
像往常一樣,我們可以做更多,也將繼續做更多,以便在前進的過程中繼續從我們的行動中獲得利益。由於我們繼續投資於成長、生產力和永續性,本季調整後的資本支出為 3.67 億美元。本季度,我們透過股息向股東返還了 8.28 億美元。第三季末淨債務為108億美元,年減11%。
Our business segments continue their long history of robust cash flow generation. In addition, our proven access to capital markets, along with the anticipated one-time dividend from the spin of Health Care at leverage of 3x to 3.5x EBITDA and 19.9% retained stake, will provide additional financial flexibility. This combined with our existing strong capital structure provides us with the ability to continue to invest in the business, return capital to shareholders and meet the cash flow needs related to ongoing legal matters.
我們的業務部門延續了長期以來強勁的現金流產生能力。此外,我們成熟的資本市場准入機制,加上醫療保健業務分拆預計產生的一次性股息(槓桿為 3 倍至 3.5 倍 EBITDA)和 19.9% 的保留股份,將提供額外的財務靈活性。結合我們現有的強大資本結構,我們有能力繼續投資業務、向股東返還資本並滿足與正在進行的法律事務相關的現金流量需求。
Now please turn to Slide 9 for our business group performance. Starting with our Safety and Industrial business, which posted sales of $2.8 billion or down 5.8% organically. This result included a year-on-year headwind of approximately $130 million or 4.3 percentage points due to last year's COVID-related disposable respirator decline and exit of our operations in Russia. Excluding this, Q3 adjusted organic sales were down 1.5%.
現在請翻到投影片 9,了解我們業務集團的表現。首先是我們的安全和工業業務,銷售額為 28 億美元,有機下降 5.8%。由於去年與 COVID 相關的一次性呼吸器銷量下降以及我們退出俄羅斯業務,這一結果包括同比約 1.3 億美元或 4.3 個百分點的逆風。除此之外,第三季調整後的有機銷售額下降了 1.5%。
Personal safety was down high single digits due to last year's COVID-related disposable respirator comp. Excluding disposable respirators, personal safety was up high single digits organically. Closure and masking continued to be impacted by lower packaging and shipping activity and industrial adhesives and tapes by end market softness in electronics. Abrasives, electrical markets and automotive aftermarket declined versus last year's strong comparisons. And finally, organic growth in our roofing granules business was up high single digits.
由於去年與 COVID 相關的一次性呼吸器故障,人身安全下降了個位數。不包括一次性呼吸器,個人安全產品有機增長了個位數。封口和遮蔽產品繼續受到包裝和運輸活動減少的影響,而工業黏合劑和膠帶則受到電子產品終端市場疲軟的影響。與去年同期的強勁表現相比,磨料、電氣市場和汽車售後市場均出現下滑。最後,我們的屋頂顆粒業務的有機成長率達到了個位數。
Adjusted operating income was $708 million or up 5% versus last year. Adjusted operating margins were 25.7%, up 250 basis points year-on-year and up 350 basis points sequentially. The year-on-year improvement in margins was mainly driven by ongoing productivity actions, restructuring benefits, strong spending discipline and price. Partially offsetting these benefits were headwinds from lower sales volume and restructuring costs.
調整後的營業收入為 7.08 億美元,較去年同期成長 5%。調整後營業利益率為 25.7%,較去年成長 250 個基點,較上季成長 350 個基點。利潤率的年增率主要得益於持續的生產力行動、重組效益、嚴格的支出紀律和價格。銷售量下降和重組成本帶來的不利因素部分抵銷了這些好處。
Moving to Transportation and Electronics on Slide 10, which posted Q3 adjusted sales of $1.9 billion. Adjusted organic growth declined 1.8% year-on-year, largely due to expected weakness in electronics. Our electronics business experienced a year-on-year mid-single-digit decline in adjusted organic sales as semiconductor and data center end market demand continues to remain soft.
前往投影片 10 上的運輸和電子業務,該業務第三季調整後的銷售額為 19 億美元。調整後有機成長率年減 1.8%,主因是電子產品預期疲軟。由於半導體和資料中心終端市場需求持續疲軟,我們的電子業務調整後有機銷售額較去年出現中等個位數下降。
We are starting to see signs of stabilization in consumer electronics end market. However, we are closely monitoring demand trends as we head into the upcoming holiday season. Our auto OEM business had a strong quarter, increasing approximately 16% year-on-year versus a low single-digit global car and light truck build as we continued to gain penetration on automotive platforms.
我們開始看到消費性電子終端市場穩定的跡象。然而,隨著即將到來的假期,我們正在密切關注需求趨勢。我們的汽車 OEM 業務本季表現強勁,年成長約 16%,而全球轎車和輕型卡車產量則僅為個位數,這得益於我們繼續在汽車平台上滲透。
Turning to the rest of Transportation and Electronics. Commercial solutions and transportation safety both declined mid-single digits year-on-year, mainly driven by weakness in China while advanced materials grew low single digits. Transportation and Electronics delivered $494 million in adjusted operating income, up 21% year-on-year.
轉向其餘的運輸和電子領域。商業解決方案和運輸安全年比均出現中等個位數下降,主要受中國市場疲軟影響,而先進材料則出現低個位數成長。運輸和電子業務的調整後營業收入為 4.94 億美元,年增 21%。
Adjusted operating margins were 26.3%, up 460 basis points year-on-year and up 650 basis points sequentially. The year-on-year improvement in margins was driven by productivity actions, restructuring benefits, strong spending discipline and price. Partially offsetting these benefits were headwinds from lower sales volumes and restructuring costs.
調整後營業利益率為 26.3%,較去年成長 460 個基點,較上季成長 650 個基點。利潤率的年增率得益於生產力措施、重組效益、嚴格的支出紀律和價格。銷售量下降和重組成本帶來的不利因素部分抵消了這些好處。
Looking at our Health Care business on Slide 11. Q3 sales were $2.1 billion with organic growth up 2.4% versus last year. Organic sales in oral care were up high single digits year-on-year and medical solutions grew low single digits organically, including continued impact from lower post-COVID-related biopharma demand. Health information systems declined low single digits due to tighter hospital budgets. As procedure volumes continue to improve and hospital budgets stabilize, we are confident in the long-term outlook of this business.
看看幻燈片 11 上的我們的醫療保健業務。第三季的銷售額為 21 億美元,有機成長率比去年同期成長 2.4%。口腔護理產品的有機銷售額年增率高個位數,醫療解決方案產品的有機銷售額成長低個位數,其中包括新冠疫情後生物製藥需求下降的持續影響。由於醫院預算緊縮,衛生資訊系統下降了個位數。隨著手術量不斷提高和醫院預算穩定,我們對該業務的長期前景充滿信心。
Health Care's third quarter operating income was $460 million or up 2% year-on-year. Operating margins were 22.2%, up 50 basis points year-on-year and up sequentially 240 basis points. The year-on-year improvement in margins was driven by productivity actions, restructuring benefits strong spending discipline and price. These benefits were partially offset by restructuring costs.
醫療保健部門第三季的營業收入為 4.6 億美元,年增 2%。營業利益率為 22.2%,較去年同期成長 50 個基點,較上季成長 240 個基點。利潤率的年增率提高得益於生產力措施、重組效益、嚴格的支出紀律和價格。這些收益被重組成本部分抵銷。
Finally, on Slide 12. Our Consumer business posted third quarter sales of $1.3 billion. Organic sales declined 7.2% year-on-year as discretionary spending trends on hardline categories remained subdued. The back-to-school season was soft and rising interest rates continued to impact the housing market and related spending.
最後,在第 12 張投影片上,我們的消費者業務公佈第三季銷售額為 13 億美元。由於硬類商品的可自由支配支出趨勢依然低迷,有機銷售額年減 7.2%。返校季銷售疲軟,利率上升持續影響房地產市場和相關支出。
Consumer's third quarter operating income was $269 million, down 10% compared to last year, with operating margins of 20.5%, down 70 basis points year-on-year, however, were up 230 basis points sequentially. The year-on-year decline in margins was driven by headwinds from lower sales volumes and restructuring costs. These headwinds were partially offset by benefits from productivity actions, restructuring and strong spending discipline and price.
消費品業務第三季營業收入為 2.69 億美元,較去年同期下降 10%,營業利潤率為 20.5%,年減 70 個基點,但比上一季成長 230 個基點。利潤率較去年同期下降的原因是銷售量下降和重組成本帶來的不利影響。這些不利因素被生產力行動、重組、嚴格的支出紀律和價格帶來的好處部分抵消。
That concludes our remarks on the third quarter. Please turn to Slide 14 for an update on our full year's expectations. Our strong third quarter performance shows the results of the significant actions we have put in place this year to generate better productivity, yield and efficiency from our supply chain, drive simplification, manage costs and deliver for our customers in an uncertain macro environment.
這就是我們對第三季的評論。請翻到投影片 14 了解我們全年的最新預期。我們第三季的強勁業績體現了我們今年採取的重大行動的成果,這些行動旨在提高供應鏈的生產力、產量和效率,推動簡化,管理成本,並在不確定的宏觀環境下為客戶提供服務。
As a result, we are raising our full year 2023 adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow conversion guidance. We now expect full year adjusted earnings in the range of $8.95 to $9.15 versus our prior range of $8.60 to $9.10. We are also updating our full year adjusted free cash flow conversion to be in a forecasted range of 100% to 110% versus 90% to 100% previously.
因此,我們上調了 2023 年全年調整後每股盈餘與自由現金流轉換指引。我們現在預計全年調整後收益將在 8.95 美元至 9.15 美元之間,而先前的預期為 8.60 美元至 9.10 美元。我們也將全年調整後的自由現金流轉換率預測範圍從先前的 90% 到 100% 更新為 100% 到 110%。
Based on our year-to-date performance, we expect full year adjusted organic growth to be down approximately 3% versus our prior guidance to be at the lower end of flat to minus 3%. This updated expectation includes an incremental headwind of $50 million from continued softness in disposable respirator demand. We now estimate a full year sales decline for disposable respirators of approximately $600 million versus $550 million previously.
根據我們今年迄今的表現,我們預計全年調整後的有機成長率將下降約 3%,而我們先前的預測是持平至負 3% 的低端。這項更新後的預期包括因一次性呼吸器需求持續疲軟而造成的 5,000 萬美元的增量逆風。我們現在估計,一次性呼吸器的全年銷售額將下降約 6 億美元,而先前為 5.5 億美元。
Looking ahead to the implied fourth quarter. We expect end market trends to be consistent with Q3. Hence, we anticipate fourth quarter adjusted sales to be in the range of $7.6 billion to $7.7 billion, taking into consideration normal seasonality with fewer sales days due to holidays.
展望第四季。我們預期終端市場趨勢將與第三季一致。因此,考慮到假期導致銷售天數減少等正常季節性因素,我們預計第四季度調整後的銷售額將在 76 億美元至 77 億美元之間。
Fourth quarter pretax restructuring charges are expected to be in the range of $70 million to $120 million, incorporating the timing impact I mentioned earlier, with pretax benefits of $145 million to $195 million. Taken together, we expect fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share will be in the range of $2.13 to $2.33.
預計第四季度稅前重組費用將在 7,000 萬美元至 1.2 億美元之間,考慮到我之前提到的時間影響,稅前收益將在 1.45 億美元至 1.95 億美元之間。綜合來看,我們預計第四季度調整後每股收益將在 2.13 美元至 2.33 美元之間。
To wrap up, we are very focused on our priorities by driving improved performance through strong operational execution, progressing on our restructuring actions and spending discipline, successfully spinning off Health Care and reducing risk by managing litigation exposures.
總而言之,我們非常專注於我們的優先事項,透過強有力的營運執行來提高績效,推進重組行動和支出紀律,成功剝離醫療保健業務,並透過管理訴訟風險來降低風險。
At the same time, we are positioning 3M for the future as we prioritize the most attractive markets, invest to support continued innovation and capitalize on emerging opportunities. We expect our actions will continue to build momentum and drive long-term improvement in our organic growth, margins and cash flow performance into the future.
同時,我們正在為 3M 的未來做好準備,優先考慮最具吸引力的市場,投資支持持續創新並利用新興機會。我們預計,我們的行動將繼續累積動力,並推動未來有機成長、利潤率和現金流表現的長期改善。
As we exit 2023, we will be a stronger, leaner and a more focused 3M. And I remain confident in our future. Our solid third quarter is a direct result of the hard work of 3M employees. I want to thank them for their dedication and focus as they continue to deliver in partnership with our suppliers for customers and shareholders.
到 2023 年結束時,我們將成為一個更強大、更精簡、更專注的 3M。我對我們的未來仍然充滿信心。我們第三季的穩健業績直接歸功於 3M 員工的辛勤工作。我要感謝他們的奉獻和專注,他們繼續與我們的供應商合作,為客戶和股東提供服務。
That concludes my remarks. We will now take your questions.
我的發言到此結束。我們現在將回答大家的提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
(操作員指示)我們的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
I haven't been able to say this in a while but a pretty solid, complete quarter overall, so some progress there. But guys, I want to back up a little bit. What are the remaining steps to get Health Care spin complete? Any big hurdles still remaining?
我已經有一段時間沒能這麼說了,但總體而言,這是一個相當穩健、完整的季度,所以取得了一些進展。但是夥計們,我想稍微回顧一下。要完成「醫療保健」旋轉還剩下哪些步驟?還有什麼重大障礙嗎?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, Scott, I would say the team continues to make very good progress. And so we don't see any hurdles ahead of us. There's a lot of work to do to get ready for the spin. And so we've got work to do, getting ready for each step of that process. As we talked about in my remarks, we named the CEO and we're adding to the leadership team and getting that built out. So that's really an important foundation. We have the Board Chair named and continue to work on filling out the Board. So those are important steps.
是的,史考特,我想說球隊正在繼續取得非常好的進步。因此我們看不到前方有任何障礙。為了準備旋轉還有很多工作要做。因此,我們需要做一些工作,為該過程的每個步驟做好準備。正如我在演講中談到的,我們任命了首席執行官,並且正在擴充領導團隊並使其更加完善。所以這確實是一個重要的基礎。我們已經任命了董事會主席並繼續致力於填補董事會空缺。所以這些都是重要的步驟。
I don't see -- the team has given us great confidence that we're going to continue to progress. And we're on track for the timing that we talked about in early 2024 and see ourselves getting there successfully. Importantly, for us, it's -- much of it is, as we talked about, is about getting ready for the spin of Health Care. It's also about getting ready to stand up 3M as a stand-alone company with the Health Care spin being completed.
我沒有看到——團隊給了我們很大的信心,我們將繼續進步。我們正在按照我們在 2024 年初談到的時間計劃進行,並且相信我們能夠成功實現這一目標。對我們來說,重要的是——正如我們所討論的,這在很大程度上是為了為醫療保健的轉型做好準備。隨著醫療保健業務的分拆完成,3M 也做好了作為獨立公司的準備。
So we're putting focus there. And even what we talked about in the quarter, really driving the priorities that we are talking about, the execution in our operational execution is an important part of getting ready for 3M for the spin as well. And we're making good progress there as you noted.
因此我們把重點放在那裡。甚至我們在本季度討論的內容,真正推動我們所談論的優先事項,我們的營運執行中的執行也是為 3M 的分拆做好準備的重要組成部分。正如您所說,我們在這方面取得了良好的進展。
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Just process-wise to add to Mike's comments, the teams are working through system changes, standing up legal entities and as well as all the regulatory filings, Scott, that we need to do. And that's what everyone is focused on from the Health Care side.
從流程角度補充 Mike 的評論,團隊正在進行系統變更、建立法人實體以及所有監管備案,Scott,這些都是我們需要做的。這也是醫療保健領域中每個人都關注的重點。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
That's helpful. So Mike, just taking your comments a little further, at the new 3M, do you envision a new 3M where you can kind of run at lower levels of CapEx, lower levels of even potentially R&D as a percent of sales? And the knock on 3M was always that it costs a lot of money to drive a point of growth. And sometimes with incrementals, that worked out well. But in down cycles, that certainly did not work out well. But is there a new vision of 3M, I should say, that you can run at kind of more productive, efficient levels of CapEx and R&D?
這很有幫助。那麼 Mike,再進一步說一下,在新的 3M,您是否設想在新的 3M 中可以以較低水平的資本支出、較低水平甚至潛在的研發佔銷售額的百分比來運營? 3M 一直受到的批評是,推動一個成長點需要花費大量資金。有時透過增量的方式,效果會很好。但在經濟下行週期,這種做法顯然行不通。但我應該說,3M 是否有一個新的願景,就是能夠以更有效率、更有效率的資本支出和研發水準來運作?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, Scott, there's a couple of dimensions to the answer to your question. The first starts with what we've been talking about. We announced a restructuring back in Q1. And that was really coming from what we had learned as we operated our businesses and we looked at where we were going with our supply chains in the face of some of the challenges in supply chains globally. And it was really behind that was an expectation that we could drive greater productivity, improvement in our execution, stronger performance, improved margins. And so that was really the foundation of that restructuring.
是的,斯科特,你的問題的答案有幾個方面。首先從我們一直在談論的內容開始。我們在第一季宣布了重組。這其實來自於我們在經營業務過程中所學到的知識,以及面對全球供應鏈面臨的一些挑戰時,我們對供應鏈的發展方向進行了思考。而這背後真正的期望是,我們可以提高生產力,改善執行力,提高業績,提高利潤率。這確實是重組的基礎。
And so I think part of the answer to your question is we took those decisions to lean out the center of the company, simplify our supply chain, streamline our go-to-market models. Those are the foundation for the future of 3M. And those are, you can see, starting to demonstrate that we can drive improved financial performance for the company. And that's -- we expect that to be a foundation for the future as well. I even talked about this is -- with that performance starting to build some momentum, we can accelerate how we view the future.
所以我認為你問題的部分答案是,我們做出這些決定是為了精簡公司的中心,簡化我們的供應鏈,精簡我們的市場進入模式。這些都是 3M 未來的基礎。您可以看到,這些開始證明我們可以提高公司的財務表現。我們希望這也能成為未來的基礎。我甚至談到了這一點——隨著這種表現開始積聚一些勢頭,我們可以加快我們對未來的看法。
And then you are talking about investing in growth and innovation and productivity and sustainability. And it will continue to be our capital allocation, first priority is going to be investing in organic growth, in R&D and CapEx and really thinking of and targeting high-growth market spaces, places where we can differentiate ourselves with our innovation capabilities, where we can be aligned to emerging market trends. So I think that how we prioritize that investment is going to be aligned with where we see that ability to make a difference. So both are important foundations for the future.
然後你談到對成長、創新、生產力和永續性的投資。這將繼續是我們的資本配置,首要任務是投資於有機成長、研發和資本支出,並真正考慮和瞄準高成長市場空間,在這些地方我們可以憑藉創新能力脫穎而出,並與新興市場趨勢保持一致。因此,我認為我們如何確定投資的優先順序將與我們認為能夠產生影響的地方一致。因此兩者都是未來的重要基礎。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Just a question on electronics, been a headwind for a while. What KPIs are you looking at? When do you think -- and I think you said that was broadly in line with expectations. But when do you see the light at the end of the tunnel? When does it bottom -- what does it take for this business to bottom?
這只是一個關於電子產品的問題,一段時間以來一直是個障礙。您正在關注哪些 KPI?您認為什麼時候——我認為您說的這大致符合預期。但何時才能看到隧道盡頭的光亮呢?什麼時候觸底——這個行業需要什麼才能觸底?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, Andrew, I would say we came through third quarter, we still saw, as we said, soft end markets for electronics. And that's consumer electronics, it's into semiconductor, it's into a big part of our -- what we have as a focus in our customers in electronics. When we look ahead, there's some uncertainty. We're starting to see, as Monish said, electronics stabilize. I think that really reflects that we don't see it continuing to go down, it's starting to stabilize. There's some -- companies are talking about things getting better as they go forward.
是的,安德魯,我想說我們已經度過了第三季度,正如我們所說的,我們仍然看到電子產品的軟端市場。這就是消費性電子產品,它是半導體,它是我們很大一部分——我們關注的重點是電子客戶。當我們展望未來時,存在一些不確定性。正如莫尼什所說,我們開始看到電子產品趨於穩定。我認為這確實反映出我們認為它不會繼續下降,而是開始穩定下來。有些公司正在談論事情會隨著前進而變得更好。
I would say we're watching it closely. We expect Q4 to look a lot like Q3 in our end markets, and I would say electronics included. So we're watching what we always watch, our customers, our large electronics customers in consumer electronics and semiconductor associated with data centers. And those are the -- that's where we're going to be taking the lead from where we see demand going, where we see market performance going. When we see the market improve, we'll take the lead from them.
我想說我們正在密切關注此事。我們預計第四季的終端市場(包括電子產品)將與第三季非常相似。因此,我們一直在關注我們的客戶,即消費電子和與資料中心相關的半導體領域的大型電子客戶。這些都是——我們將從需求走向、市場表現走向等方面發揮主導作用。當我們看到市場好轉時,我們就會採取領先行動。
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Just another data point for you, Andrew. At the end of second quarter, we had said that the way we predicted electronics was the amount of negative Vs quarter-on-quarter would get better. So if you compare us to the first half and the amount we were down year-on-year versus the third quarter, we are less down. It doesn't mean we are not down, but that's another point that Mike was trying to make is that's where we are starting to see some signs of stabilization. But as I said in my prepared remarks, I think we'll have to just watch how the holiday season plays out.
這只是給你的另一個數據點,安德魯。在第二季末,我們曾表示,我們預測電子產品的季比負成長幅度將會有所改善。因此,如果將我們與上半年以及與第三季相比的同比下降幅度進行比較,我們會發現我們的下降幅度較小。這並不意味著我們沒有陷入低迷,但麥克試圖表達的另一點是,我們開始看到一些穩定的跡象。但正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣,我認為我們只需要觀察假期的情況如何。
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Got you. And just a follow-up question on Health Care. I appreciate that you guys are doing a lot of sort of accounting, et cetera, et cetera. But you have done these separations in the past.
明白了。這只是關於醫療保健的一個後續問題。我很感激你們做了很多會計工作等等。但你過去已經做過這些分離。
And I guess, the question I have, any thoughts as Bryan has joined the company -- I know in the past, there's been headlines about health information system being separated. I know there are other sort of businesses inside Health Care. Any thought about sort of maybe repositioning the portfolio particularly as Bryan came onboard, reposition the portfolio for sort of future as a stand-alone company?
我想,我的問題是,布萊恩加入公司後您有什麼想法嗎?我知道過去曾有關於健康資訊系統分離的頭條新聞。我知道醫療保健領域還有其他類型的業務。有沒有想過重新定位投資組合,特別是當布萊恩加入後,重新定位投資組合,以便未來成為獨立的公司?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, Andrew, going back to really how did we think about the strategy to spin out Health Care, and one of the important questions was do we see Health Care as a leading health care technology company attractive to shareholders with a great future? And that portfolio of businesses, the answer for us was yes. And that the -- the best way to create that value was to stand it up as a stand-alone company. And the portfolio work we had done even over time as part of 3M positioned it to be a successful stand-alone company.
是的,安德魯,回到我們真正如何考慮分拆醫療保健業務的策略,其中一個重要問題是,我們是否認為醫療保健業務是一家領先的醫療保健技術公司,對股東具有吸引力,並且前景光明?對於這些業務組合,我們的答案是肯定的。創造這種價值的最佳方式就是將其作為一家獨立的公司來運作。即使作為 3M 的一部分,我們所做的投資組合工作也使它成為一家成功的獨立公司。
And each of the businesses play an important role there. Now it is going to be an independent company. We'll have a new CEO and a Board. And they will develop the strategies for how they think about creating the greatest value, driving growth for that business, thinking about how to really manage that portfolio of businesses as they go forward. So we see it as being ready to stand forward as a leader and are really confident in the leadership that will take the company as a standalone.
每個企業都扮演著重要角色。現在它將成為一家獨立的公司。我們將有一位新的執行長和一個董事會。他們將制定策略,思考如何創造最大價值,推動業務成長,思考如何在未來真正管理業務組合。因此,我們認為它已準備好成為領導者,並且對帶領公司獨立發展的領導層充滿信心。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst
Can we start just on the restructuring, the benefits and the pushout a little bit of the expenses? Just it seems like you're running ahead of schedule on the benefits. So I'd love to get any color about where this is -- what you see coming in better than expected. And then also just on the pushout on the cost into 4Q, just what were some of the reasons for why the costs are getting pushed out from 3Q to 4Q?
我們能否只從重組、福利和減少一點開支開始呢?只是看起來你在福利方面已經超前了。所以我很想了解目前的情況—您認為情況會比預期更好嗎?然後,關於成本推遲到第四季度,成本從第三季度推遲到第四季度的原因是什麼?
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Yes. So I'll just start, again as a reminder, Joe, the total benefits for this program over the period of the program is $700 million to $900 million with costs approximately of $700 million to $900 million. And coming into the year, we had said for 2023, we would see benefits in the ranges of $400 million to $450 million of benefits and equal offsetting charges. So when you look year-to-date, we are, I would say, largely on track for the year. We still believe we'll be in the $400 million to $450 million of benefits, which will get offset by cost of $400 million to $450 million.
是的。因此,我再次提醒喬,該計畫在實施期間的總收益為 7 億至 9 億美元,成本約為 7 億至 9 億美元。進入 2023 年,我們曾表示,我們將看到 4 億美元至 4.5 億美元的收益和相等的抵銷費用。因此,當你回顧今年迄今為止的情況時,我想說,我們今年的業績基本上處於正軌上。我們仍然相信,我們將獲得 4 億至 4.5 億美元的收益,但這筆收益將被 4 億至 4.5 億美元的成本所抵銷。
So the teams have done a really nice job of continuing to execute. There were multiple pieces to this program. One was corporate simplification. The second was streamlining our supply chain. And third was making sure that we are closer to our customers in our business group units. And all three of these programs are running well on track.
因此,團隊在繼續執行方面做得非常出色。該計劃有多個部分。一是企業簡化。第二是精簡我們的供應鏈。第三是確保我們業務集團單位更貼近客戶。目前這三個項目都運作順利。
As regards to just timing from Q3 to Q4, I would say nothing big. We operate in multiple countries, as you know. And we wanted to make sure we follow all rules and regulations in those countries. And so some items dropped from Q3 to Q4. And we had a couple of other small investments that we had to make in Q3. They're just based on all the work the teams are doing, we just felt better to do it in Q4, so nothing major. So still pretty much largely on track, $400 million to $450 million of benefits for the year and $700 million to $900 million for the program.
至於從第三季到第四季的時間,我認為沒什麼大不了的。如您所知,我們的業務遍及多個國家。我們希望確保遵守這些國家的所有規則和規定。因此,一些商品從第三季下降到了第四季。我們在第三季也進行了其他一些小額投資。它們只是基於團隊正在做的所有工作,我們只是覺得在第四季度做這件事會更好,所以沒什麼大不了的。因此,總體上仍按計劃進行,全年福利為 4 億至 4.5 億美元,計劃福利為 7 億至 9 億美元。
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst
Got it. Okay, great. That's helpful, Monish. And then I guess, I know it's probably too early to think about 2024. But if you kind of think through like the price/cost equation from here on out, it seems like raw materials are becoming less and less of a headwind for you guys. Can you maybe just provide any type of framework for 2024 and ultimately, how you think about both price and what you're seeing from a raw mat perspective?
知道了。好的,太好了。這很有幫助,莫尼什。然後我想,我知道現在考慮 2024 年可能還為時過早。但是如果你從現在開始仔細考慮價格/成本等式,似乎原料對你們來說越來越不再是阻礙。您能否為 2024 年提供任何類型的框架,以及最終您如何看待價格以及從原材料角度所看到的情況?
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
So I'll just start first, Joe, by 2024 is a little ways away. So I think our first focus is just getting Q4 done, getting the teams continuing to focus on our priorities. You've seen what our teams have done. So we continue to execute on our priorities. You've seen we have delivered a solid Q3. We have taken guidance up for the whole year. We're gaining momentum. And we want the team to continue to focus on doing that, getting 2023 closed out. So when we get into 2024 and Q4 2023 earnings call, we'll definitely give you an update on 2024.
所以我先從頭說起,喬,2024 年還有點遠。所以我認為我們的首要重點是完成第四季度,讓團隊繼續專注於我們的優先事項。您已經看到了我們的團隊所做的工作。因此,我們將繼續執行我們的優先事項。您已經看到,我們第三季的業績表現穩健。我們已經提高了全年的指導。我們正在獲得動力。我們希望團隊繼續專注於此,完成 2023 年的比賽。因此,當我們進入 2024 年和 2023 年第四季財報電話會議時,我們一定會向您提供 2024 年的最新消息。
To answer your question on deflation and price, I'll start with deflation. I'll start by saying, first of all, the headwinds that we have seen or the carryover headwinds are approximately $25 million in the quarter, which we called out, which is very similar to Q2. And when you look at overall market and material, I would say we are seeing more disinflation than deflation. When you think about places where energy is still a little more -- is still inflationary, downstream materials are still inflationary and then labor is still sticky from an inflation perspective.
為了回答您關於通貨緊縮和價格的問題,我將從通貨緊縮開始。首先我要說的是,我們本季看到的阻力或延續阻力約為 2500 萬美元,這與第二季非常相似。當你觀察整體市場和材料時,我會說我們看到的通貨緊縮比通貨緊縮更嚴重。當你想到能源價格仍然略高的地方——仍然有通貨膨脹,下游材料仍然有通貨膨脹,而從通貨膨脹的角度來看,勞動力仍然很粘稠。
Where we have seen some benefits is upstream, chemicals and logistics, and the teams have taken advantage of that. But I would say more importantly, I don't think the teams are just focused on material cost. They are more focused on saying, "How do we drive overall cost down in the factories?" Whether it is driving yield and efficiency, whether it is dual sourcing, whether it is making sure we have alternate materials, that's what Peter Gibbons and the team is working. And the work that they have done through this year is clearly evident in the results that you're seeing. So that team has done a very nice job.
我們看到了一些好處,包括上游、化學和物流,團隊已經利用了這些好處。但我想說更重要的是,我認為團隊不僅僅關注材料成本。他們更關注的是「我們如何降低工廠的整體成本?」無論是提高產量和效率,無論是雙重採購,還是確保我們擁有替代材料,這都是 Peter Gibbons 和團隊正在努力的方向。他們今年所做的工作從您所看到的成果中顯而易見。所以這個團隊做得非常好。
And then when it comes to price, I would tell you, we came into the quarter -- into the year, we said low single digits price increase. That's what we are -- as of right now, we are on track with pretty much the same range. And Joe, as you know, you've followed 3M longer than I have, this is not a formula-based pricing. We are very thoughtful about it. We look at it market-by-market, product-by-product, and we make sure that the price that we are charging our customers is a representation of the value that we -- that our customers get.
然後談到價格,我會告訴你,我們進入了本季度 - 進入了今年,我們說價格上漲了個位數。這就是我們目前的情況——截至目前,我們的發展範圍基本上保持相同。喬,如你所知,你關注 3M 的時間比我長,這不是基於公式的定價。我們對此深思熟慮。我們逐一市場、逐一產品地進行研究,並確保我們向客戶收取的價格能夠反映我們——我們的客戶所獲得的價值。
And I would say if you leave 2024 aside for a moment, long term, 3M has always had a very good price/cost equation because of the value that we add to our customers. And I don't see that changing. And I believe that with the innovation that we bring, with the customer focus that we have, that, that equation remains.
我想說,如果暫時不考慮 2024 年,從長遠來看,3M 一直擁有非常好的價格/成本等式,因為我們為客戶增加了價值。我不認為這種情況會改變。我相信,憑藉我們帶來的創新和我們對客戶的關注,這種平衡將會得以維持。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的克里斯·史奈德。
Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst
Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst
One thing that has really stood out to us over the last couple of quarters is the underlying margin improvement of the business. If we ex out restructuring spend and savings, we see an operating margin on the underlying business of roughly 22% this quarter versus less than 21% in Q2 and like a mid-18s in Q1. So a very strong ramp here. Can you just talk about what's driving that? Outside of the restructuring, why is the underlying business seeing so much margin momentum?
在過去幾個季度中,真正讓我們印象深刻的一件事是業務的潛在利潤率的提高。如果我們扣除重組支出和儲蓄,我們預計本季基礎業務的營業利潤率約為 22%,而第二季度則不到 21%,第一季約為 18% 左右。所以這裡的斜坡非常強勁。您能談談是什麼原因導致這現象的發生嗎?除了重組之外,為什麼基礎業務的利潤率成長勢頭如此強勁?
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
So I would say, first, Chris, it's a huge thanks to the 3Mers who have been focused on their priorities. The priorities, as Mike mentioned, driving performance across all of 3M, spinning out Health Care, reducing risk by managing litigation, is all starting to show up in the results. To your point, even if you exclude our restructuring costs and benefits, the margin rate is -- has shown a pretty good ramp. And that's driven, I would say, by two or three things.
所以我想說,首先,克里斯,非常感謝 3Mers 一直專注於他們的優先事項。正如麥克所提到的,優先事項包括推動整個 3M 的業績、分拆醫療保健業務、透過管理訴訟來降低風險,所有這些都開始在結果中體現出來。正如您所說,即使排除我們的重組成本和收益,利潤率已經顯示出相當不錯的成長。我想說,這是由兩三件事推動的。
One is continued execution in the supply chain with some of the restructuring that we have made, and the supply chain is definitely more agile. We are also using a lot of data and data analytics. We have also learned through the pandemic on how to continue to operate our supply chain. So number one, you're starting to see the benefit of the improved yield and efficiency. You're able to take longer runs, too, as material gets better.
一是繼續執行我們已經進行的一些重組,供應鏈肯定更加靈活。我們也使用大量數據和數據分析。我們也透過這次疫情學會如何繼續運作我們的供應鏈。因此,首先,您開始看到產量和效率提高的好處。隨著材料的不斷改進,你也可以進行更長的跑步。
Secondly, the team has been very thoughtful in proactive cost management. To the extent where they saw there were places they could invest, they have. To the extent where we had lower volumes, we have managed to control cost. Third is we have had a relentless focus on working capital with inventory. And you're seeing that from a cash conversion basis. So I would just say it's continued, good, strong operating performance that you're starting to see.
其次,團隊在主動成本管理方面做得非常周到。只要他們發現有可以投資的地方,他們就會去投資。在產量較低的情況下,我們設法控制了成本。第三,我們一直堅持不懈地關注庫存營運資金。您可以從現金轉換基礎中看到這一點。因此,我只想說,您開始看到的是持續、良好、強勁的營運表現。
And then as you add on the benefits that you get from the restructuring and once the cost goes away, which we have said this program will take approximately 2 years to complete out, you can see the overall, long-term benefits from the margin rate that you're going to get from better operating performance as well as better restructuring benefits.
然後,當您添加從重組中獲得的收益並且成本消失時(我們已經說過,該計劃大約需要 2 年時間才能完成),您可以從更好的營運業績以及更好的重組收益中獲得利潤率帶來的整體長期收益。
At the same time, you've got to keep in mind that we are -- that the teams are going to continue to watch this in the fourth quarter. It's an uncertain macro. But I'm very confident with what we're doing that the execution is there. But there's always more we can do. And we'll keep trying to drive more and more execution as we go.
同時,你必須記住,我們——各支球隊將在第四節繼續關注這一點。這是一個不確定的宏觀。但我對我們正在做的事情非常有信心,相信我們能夠成功。但我們總是能做得更多。我們將繼續努力推動越來越多的執行。
Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst
Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst
I appreciate that. And maybe kind of taking that and bridging to the Q4 guide, it seems to us by our math that you're kind of guiding underlying operating margins ex restructuring to something like 19%, down from the almost 22% this quarter. I know revenue is down, but it seems to suggest a very sharp decremental. Can you just maybe talk about what's causing that margin step-down? Because it feels like a lot of the improvements, whether it's supply chain or price cost, are sustainable.
我很感激。或許可以藉鏡這一點,並將其與第四季度指南結合起來,根據我們的計算,我們認為,您指導的扣除重組後的基本營業利潤率約為 19%,低於本季度的近 22%。我知道收入下降了,但這似乎意味著收入下降幅度非常大。能否談談導致利潤率下降的原因?因為感覺很多改進,無論是供應鏈還是價格成本,都是可持續的。
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Yes. Chris, again depends on the math. I'll just start with margin rates in total. When we started the year or we came into the year, we had said margin rates for the year are going to be around 19%. At the end of Q2, we said margin rates are going between 19.5% to 20% for the year. And now based on where we are with the midpoint of our guide, our margin rate will be approximately 20%.
是的。克里斯,這又取決於數學。我先從總保證金率開始。當我們開始新的一年或進入新的一年時,我們曾說過今年的利潤率將在 19% 左右。在第二季末,我們表示今年的利潤率將在 19.5% 至 20% 之間。現在,根據我們所處的指南中點,我們的利潤率約為 20%。
So when you back into it, the fourth quarter is higher than the 19.5% that you have. It's somewhere in that 20.5% to 21% for the fourth quarter. And just to keep in mind, the reason you see this decremental. One is, of course, the restructuring is higher in Q4 versus Q3 plus it's higher of -- the midpoint is $95 million to $100 million of restructuring on a year-over-year basis if you're doing year-over-year decrementals.
因此,當你回顧時,你會發現第四季的成長率高於 19.5%。第四季的增幅在 20.5% 至 21% 之間。請記住,您看到這種遞減的原因。一是,當然,第四季度的重組金額高於第三季度,而且如果以同比減少計算,那麼中點金額為同比 9,500 萬美元至 1 億美元。
The second piece to keep in mind is, in general, revenue in 3M drops from Q3 to Q4. You have less billing days or less business days in Q4. That's why our revenue guide, which is going from $8 billion, it goes down to between $7.6 billion and $7.7 billion, which is basically saying the underlying macro trends are the same. It's just lower billing days or lower business days, which also puts an impact.
要記住的第二點是,總體而言,3M 的收入從第三季到第四季有所下降。第四季的計費天數或工作天數較少。這就是為什麼我們的收入指南從 80 億美元降至 76 億美元至 77 億美元之間,這基本上表明潛在的宏觀趨勢是相同的。這只是較低的計費天數或較低的工作天數,這也會產生影響。
If you look at the history of 3M, Chris, and you look at Q3 to Q4, you will always see a pretty sharp decline from Q3 to Q4 in margin rate. And that's mainly driven by just the lower volume because of the less business days that come into Q4. Hopefully, that answered your question.
克里斯,如果你看一下 3M 的歷史,看看第三季到第四季度,你會發現利潤率從第三季到第四季急劇下降。這主要是因為第四季的工作日減少導致交易量下降。希望這能回答你的問題。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.
我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Andrew Kaplowitz。
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head
So Monish, I think at a conference a month ago, you had lowered your revenue guidance a bit and then you sort of report $8 billion -- I think you had $7.9 billion to $8 billion. So maybe you can talk about the cadence of revenues for the quarter. Did any of your businesses pick up in September here and October? Are you just being conservative at the time? And then how are you thinking about the impact of higher rates on your businesses?
所以莫尼什,我想在一個月前的一次會議上,你稍微降低了收入預期,然後你報告了 80 億美元——我想你的收入是 79 億到 80 億美元。那麼也許您可以談談本季的營收節奏。你們這裡的業務在九月和十月份有好轉嗎?您當時只是持保守態度嗎?那麼,您認為利率上調對您的業務有何影響?
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
So I'll start by saying at that moment in time, what we saw is what we told you all, which we felt was in that $7.9 billion to $8 billion. There was uncertainty in electronics, consumer and China. I would say thanks to all the focus the teams have on taking care of customers, we were able to get to the high end of our range of $8 billion. I would say the same trends, Andy, pretty much stayed through the quarter. Electronics pretty much was where we thought it was going to be. China continued to remain weak and so did consumer retail.
因此,我首先要說的是,在那個時刻,我們所看到的就是我們告訴大家的,我們認為這個數字應該在 79 億美元到 80 億美元之間。電子產品、消費品和中國市場存在不確定性。我想說,由於團隊全心全意地照顧客戶,我們才能夠達到 80 億美元的最高限額。安迪,我想說同樣的趨勢在整個季度基本上保持不變。電子產品基本上就是我們所想像的那樣。中國經濟持續疲軟,消費零售業亦是如此。
As Mike mentioned and so I have in my prepared remarks, we are seeing electronics stabilizing. We are watching for the fourth quarter what the holiday trends will bring for consumer retail. Back-to-school was softer than we expected. And then China, again I would say is we are -- it's pretty much the trends we expected in China. Overall, for the fourth quarter, you'll see us having revenue of $7.6 billion to $7.7 billion, which is, again, just driven by the fact you have less business days.
正如麥克以及我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,我們看到電子產品正在趨於穩定。我們正在關注第四季度假日趨勢將為消費零售帶來什麼。開學情況比我們預期的要好。然後是中國,我想再次說,這幾乎就是我們在中國預期的趨勢。整體而言,第四季我們的營收為 76 億至 77 億美元,這又是由於營業日減少所致。
On the other side, if you look at margin and you look at what the teams have done, the teams have continued to be very good on an operating execution perspective. We have continued to drive proactive cost control. We have done that in Q3. We'll continue to do that in Q4. And as a result, we were able to beat the $2.25 to $2.40 I had said in that conference a few months ago. And then we have raised totally our guide from $8.60 to $9.10 to $8.95 to $9.15.
另一方面,如果你看一下利潤率,看看團隊所做的事情,你會發現從營運執行的角度來看,團隊仍然表現得非常好。我們繼續推動主動的成本控制。我們在第三季度已經做到了這一點。我們將在第四季繼續這樣做。結果,我們超過了我幾個月前在那次會議上所說的 2.25 美元到 2.40 美元的目標。然後我們將指導價從 8.60 美元到 9.10 美元提高到 8.95 美元到 9.15 美元。
And then the other point, Andy, that's another bright spot is the cash conversion. The teams have done a marvelous job managing inventory, 130% free cash flow conversion in the third quarter, which has allowed us to raise our total year guide of free cash flow -- adjusted free cash flow conversion from -- to 100% to 110% from 90% to 100%. So overall, the team is focused on operating execution.
然後另一點,安迪,另一個亮點是現金轉換。團隊在庫存管理方面做得非常出色,第三季的自由現金流轉換率達到了 130%,這使我們能夠將全年自由現金流指南(調整後的自由現金流轉換率)從 90% 提高到 100% 到 110%。因此總體而言,團隊專注於營運執行。
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Monish, if I could follow up on that, the cash conversion target raise, maybe talk about your efforts. I know when you came in, you talked about improving digitization at the company. It seems like you're focused on digitization of inventories having an impact. So maybe you can talk about the confidence in generating higher cash conversion going forward, sort of duration of these improvements as you go forward in '24 and beyond.
莫尼什,如果我可以跟進現金轉換目標的提高,也許可以談談你的努力。我知道您剛來的時候就談到了改善公司的數位化。看起來您專注於庫存數位化產生的影響。因此,也許您可以談談對未來實現更高現金轉換的信心,以及這些改進在 24 年及以後的持續時間。
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Yes. From the day of coming here, Andy, I've said working capital is a great opportunity for 3M. And through the pandemic, unfortunately, we had to build inventory levels and most companies did just to make sure we took care of our customers. And our first priority was always to take care of our customers. So we made sure we had enough inventory. As -- two things, as supply chains are stabilizing, number one, but more importantly, the execution that the teams are doing using data and data analytics and not -- and what I mean by that is not just going and using analytics but being able to visualize by looking at data, they are able to see where the inventory is better.
是的。安迪,從我來這裡的第一天起,我就說營運資金對 3M 來說是一個很好的機會。不幸的是,在疫情期間,我們不得不增加庫存,大多數公司都這樣做只是為了確保我們能夠照顧好我們的客戶。我們的首要任務始終是照顧我們的客戶。所以我們確保我們有足夠的庫存。隨著供應鏈逐漸穩定,有兩件事很重要,但更重要的是,團隊正在使用數據和數據分析來執行,而不是——我的意思不僅僅是去使用分析,而是能夠透過查看數據進行可視化,他們能夠看到庫存在哪裡更好。
They are able to get a better demand signal, which allows them to get a better manufacturing signal, which allows them to get a better supply signal to their suppliers. And then the third piece is with all the work that we have done through the restructuring, where we have got the supply chain streamlined and restructured so that it's more agile, all of that is playing itself out in the inventory that we are seeing. I would tell you, as I said in my prepared remarks, there's more to go here. There's more that we can keep driving in this space. And we are going to continue driving it because this is a great place where we can continue to generate very strong cash for 3M.
他們能夠獲得更好的需求訊號,這使他們能夠獲得更好的製造訊號,從而使他們能夠向供應商提供更好的供應訊號。第三部分是我們透過重組所做的所有工作,我們對供應鏈進行了精簡和重組,使其更加靈活,所有這些都在我們看到的庫存中發揮作用。我想告訴你們,正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣,這裡還有更多的事情要做。我們也可以繼續在這個領域推動更多發展。我們將繼續推動這一進程,因為這是一個絕佳的機會,我們可以繼續為 3M 創造豐厚的現金。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。
Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst
Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst
What are you planning and assuming for the auto strike impact for 4Q?
您對第四季汽車罷工的影響有何計畫和假設?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, Deane, so it's something we're watching very closely. We're -- as you know, we are -- stayed very close with the automotive OEMs, our key customers there. We are -- we haven't seen a significant impact on our business to date. And we continue to watch it closely. We're staying connected on what happens week-to-week and impacting our demand. But it's something that as part of -- important part of our global automotive business.
是的,迪恩,所以這是我們正在密切關注的事情。如您所知,我們與汽車原始設備製造商(我們在那裡的關鍵客戶)保持著非常密切的聯繫。到目前為止,我們還沒有看到對我們的業務產生重大影響。我們將繼續密切關注。我們密切注意每週發生的事情及其對我們需求的影響。但它是我們全球汽車業務的重要組成部分。
Automotive, as we talked about in the quarter, had very good performance. We had 16% growth in the quarter, outgrowing build rates. And that's the broader core of our automotive business. Our auto electrification business is growing even faster. So it's an important part. It's had some impact but relatively small impact to this point. Again, we're watching it closely as we move ahead.
正如我們在本季度所討論的,汽車行業表現非常好。本季我們的成長率為 16%,超過了建設率的成長。這就是我們的汽車業務的更廣泛的核心。我們的汽車電氣化業務成長更快。所以這是一個重要的部分。它確實產生了一些影響,但到目前為止影響相對較小。再次強調,我們會密切關注事態發展。
Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst
Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst
Got it. And then you mentioned earlier in the prepared remarks that back-to-school sales were weak. Can you quantify that just maybe year-over-year? And then how does this set up for holiday sales? With Consumer being weak, higher rates, what's the assumption there as well?
知道了。然後您在之前準備好的發言中提到返校銷售疲軟。能否量化一下年比情況?那麼這對假日銷售有何影響呢?由於消費者疲軟,利率上升,那裡的假設是什麼?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, Deane, I probably would point you back at some of the data out there about year-over-year spend, back-to-school being down per student. There's a number of metrics out there. For us, our category broadly in Consumer is exposed to shifting discretionary spend. So that continues to be part of the Consumer story. So it wasn't a back-to-school story only. Back-to-school was muted. We didn't see the strong replenishment cycles that we would have seen in a stronger back-to-school. So I think we confirm the data that's out there.
是的,迪恩,我可能會向你指出一些關於同比支出的數據,返校費用在每個學生身上都有所下降。有許多指標。對我們來說,我們的消費者類別廣泛地受到不斷變化的可自由支配支出的影響。所以這仍然是消費者故事的一部分。所以這不僅僅是一個開學故事。返校季氣氛沉悶。我們沒有看到像開學季那樣強勁的補貨週期。所以我認為我們確認了現有的數據。
And as we look ahead, we're -- I would say we're just looking at the uncertainty around what happens for the holiday season as well. And so we'll be monitoring that. And again, there's a broader story around consumer retail for us, the shift of spending from discretionary products into areas like food and, I would say, experienced kinds of spending, that trend has continued. So those are both underlying some of the performance that we saw in Consumer in the quarter and how we're thinking about it into Q4.
展望未來,我想說,我們也在關注假期期間的不確定性。因此我們會對此進行監控。再說一次,對我們來說,消費零售業有一個更廣泛的故事,即支出從非必需品轉向食品等領域,我想說,還有各種經驗豐富的支出,這種趨勢一直在持續。因此,這些都是我們在本季看到的消費者業績的基礎,也是我們對第四季的思考。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Tusa with JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Stephen Tusa。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Could you just give just an update on the total expected now inflation kind of carryover for the year? I know you mentioned it in the second quarter. Is that unchanged relative to what you had said before? I think it was like $150 million, maybe that changed?
您能否簡單介紹一下今年預期的整體通膨結轉情況?我知道您在第二季度提到過它。與您之前所說的相比,這有變化嗎?我認為它大約是 1.5 億美元,也許有變化?
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
No change, Steve.
沒有變化,史蒂夫。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Okay. And then I guess, low single digits for the year on pricing. So that's kind of like a mid-single-digit volume decline. That kind of feels already recessionary. Things seem like very stable for you guys revenue-wise. How much of that negative 5% do you think is a function of destocking versus trend line on demand? And then just one last one for the fourth quarter, how much of that sequential sales decline are you expecting from electronics seasonality?
好的。然後我猜,今年的定價將處於個位數的低點。所以這有點像是中等個位數的銷售下降。那種感覺已經衰退了。從收入方面來看,你們的收入似乎非常穩定。您認為這 5% 的負成長中有多少是由去庫存化和需求趨勢線決定的?然後最後一個關於第四季度的問題,您預計電子產品的季節性將導致銷售額環比下降多少?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Yes. So Steve, maybe just thinking about the -- take the channel dynamic first, if you want. I would say when we look across the channel, where we're seeing some destocking is in industrial channels. And that's really -- I think we talked about that last quarter, too. As supply chain performance has improved and stabilized, we're seeing the industrial channels shorten up their replenishment cycles. And so they're managing their inventory maybe back to more normal levels prior to when we got hit with some of the supply chain disruption. So that's the one destocking effect.
是的。所以史蒂夫,如果你願意的話,也許你只是先考慮一下——先考慮一下頻道動態。我想說,當我們縱觀整個通路時,我們可以看到工業通路中出現了一些去庫存現象。這確實是——我想我們上個季度也討論過這個問題。隨著供應鏈績效的改善和穩定,我們看到工業通路縮短了補貨週期。因此,他們正在管理庫存,可能將其恢復到我們遭遇供應鏈中斷之前的正常水平。這就是去庫存效應。
There is some destocking in Consumer that played out. The biggest part of that played out over the last year. Retailers focused pretty heavily on taking out inventory. That seems to have played out, although there's some of that with the soft demand that's continuing. So it's, I would say, the rest of it. And when I look across the channel, otherwise, it's pretty stable globally, maybe some adjustments in China in some of those same markets as we continue to see the macro -- looking for where the macro goes as we go forward.
消費領域出現了一些去庫存現象。其中最重要的部分發生在去年。零售商非常重視清除庫存。這一情況似乎已經顯現,儘管部分疲軟的需求仍在持續。所以我想說,這就是剩下的部分。當我放眼整個通路時,我發現全球經濟相當穩定,但隨著我們繼續觀察宏觀經濟,中國等一些市場可能會出現一些調整——我們將繼續觀察宏觀經濟未來的走向。
Looking as we move ahead, electronics, we talked about stabilizing. It's really -- Monish pointed out, is part of it is the year-over-year comp. Remember last year, third and fourth quarter, we saw a decline in the electronics end markets. And we saw that in our businesses. So that's part of the view that Q4 stabilizes, that year-over-year comp gets a little more -- changes a little bit as we lap some of those earlier declines from the first half. So I would say we're staying close to that holiday season and what happens. That's an important season for electronics. And we'll be watching that closely as we go into the quarter.
展望未來,在電子產品方面,我們討論了穩定性問題。莫尼什指出,這確實是年成長的一部分。記得去年第三季和第四季,我們看到電子終端市場出現下滑。我們在我們的業務中看到了這一點。因此,我們認為第四季經濟將趨於穩定,年增速將有所提高,隨著上半年經濟出現一些下滑,經濟將略有變化。所以我想說,我們會密切注意假期的進展。對於電子產品來說這是一個重要的季節。進入本季度,我們將密切關注這一點。
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Steve, I'll just add -- I just wanted to add one more. Disposable respirators is down $600 million on a year-over-year basis. That's approximately 200 basis points of growth.
史蒂夫,我只想補充一點——我只是想再補充一點。一次性呼吸器的價格比去年同期下降了 6 億美元。這大約是200個基點的成長。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Right. And so, sorry, are you assuming kind of normal sequential seasonal decline in electronics? Yes, you are?
正確的。那麼,抱歉,您是否認為電子產品會出現正常的季節性連續下滑?是的,你是?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Yes. Well, in the broader business, we have seasonality. Some of that is normal end market cycles. But it's also billing days as well. We have the holiday season. So we see -- sequentially from Q3 to Q4, we see that normal trend.
是的。嗯,從更廣泛的業務角度來說,我們有季節性。其中一些是正常的終端市場週期。但這也是計費日。我們正處於假期。因此我們看到——從第三季度到第四季度,我們看到了正常趨勢。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Right, which you've always had, of course?
對,當然,你一直都有這個習慣?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, right.
是的,對。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
So you can't have too many electronics questions. So what's got my attention in electronics is the sequential growth from 1Q through to 3Q has been quite sharp. I think 1Q was about 680, I think 3Q was about 750 or so. I mean, I know some of it's seasonality, et cetera. But it must give you a lot of confidence that as we go into 2024 that at least in the first half of the year, we should be -- that should be a nice tailwind to the business. So any thoughts on that?
所以你不會有太多電子方面的問題。因此,引起我關注的電子產品從第一季到第三季的連續成長相當迅速。我認為第一季大約是 680,第三季大約是 750 左右。我的意思是,我知道它的一些季節性等等。但它一定會給你很大的信心,當我們進入 2024 年時,至少在上半年,我們應該——這對業務來說應該是一個很好的順風。對此您有什麼看法嗎?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Well, Nigel, I would say it's going to depend on the outlook as we get to 2024 for electronics and those key end markets that you're talking about. And we've seen -- maybe that's part of the stabilization that we're seeing is the quarterly trend in electronics against that year-over-year comparable is stabilizing in the second half. What will decide the performance in first quarter or first half of next year will really depend on the demand that we see. And some of that will come through the holiday season. But we'll be -- we'll come back at our Q4 earnings call and update on how we're looking at the first half of next year.
嗯,奈傑爾,我想說這將取決於 2024 年電子產品和您談到的那些關鍵終端市場的前景。我們已經看到——也許這是我們所看到的穩定的一部分,即電子產品的季度趨勢與去年同期相比在下半年趨於穩定。決定明年第一季或上半年業績的因素實際上取決於我們看到的需求。其中一些將在假期期間實現。但我們會在第四季財報電話會議上回顧我們對明年上半年的展望。
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Okay, that's great. And then I don't like to ask ISM macro questions necessarily. But you are, based on your cycle, very channel-centric. The flash PMI for the U.S. was at 50 in October. Are you seeing more stabilization or maybe some sequential improvement in the U.S. relative to Europe and China?
好的,太好了。然後我不一定喜歡問 ISM 宏觀問題。但是,根據您的週期,您非常以管道為中心。美國10月份PMI預覽值為50。相對於歐洲和中國,您是否看到美國經濟更加穩定或出現一些連續改善?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, I think Monish called out that performance in the U.S. was up slightly and that, I would say, mixed performance in our industrial businesses in the U.S. reflecting some areas of strength but also some, I would say, caution and uncertainty around the broader economy. So I think we're seeing the U.S. performing a little better, up slightly.
是的,我認為莫尼什指出,美國的業績略有上升,而且我想說,我們在美國工業業務的表現好壞參半,反映了一些領域的實力,但也反映了整體經濟的謹慎和不確定性。所以我認為我們看到美國的表現會稍微好一些,而且略有上升。
And that's -- I would say that's in spite of the challenges that we've been talking about in consumer retail. So Safety and Industrial posted, I think, mid-single-digit growth in the U.S. in the quarter. So that's a good reflection on what we're seeing more broadly. And maybe that PMI is aligned to that. That PMI represents kind of a middle kind of expectation from the purchasing managers.
儘管我們一直在談論消費零售業面臨的挑戰,但我想說的是,情況仍然如此。因此,我認為本季美國安全和工業領域實現了中等個位數的成長。這很好地反映了我們所看到的更廣泛的情況。也許 PMI 與此一致。 PMI 代表了採購經理的一種中間預期。
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Just only other thing, Nigel, I will add to Mike's comments is just in certain pockets, we are seeing customers managing inventory channel. And part of it is supply chains are definitely far more stable, so customers have lower lead times, so they're managing that in pockets.
奈傑爾,我要補充麥克的評論的另一件事是,在某些領域,我們看到客戶管理庫存管道。部分原因是供應鏈肯定更加穩定,因此客戶的交貨時間更短,因此他們可以在零散的時間內進行管理。
Operator
Operator
Our last question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。
Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst
Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst
One quick question, I just wanted to circle back on your sort of pricing outlook as you see it. Because volumes have been soft for some time. Headline inflation in theory is easing. And traditionally, you do have price pressure in areas like electronics just through the nature of the industry.
有一個簡單的問題,我只是想回顧一下您所看到的定價前景。因為交易量已經疲軟一段時間了。理論上總體通膨正在緩解。傳統上,由於行業性質的原因,電子等領域確實存在價格壓力。
So I just wondered sort of what the comfort level was as you look into Q4 and early next year that you can hold price kind of firm-wide at least flat at 3M and whether there's been any change how you sort of go to market to push price, just given the experience of inflation in the last couple of years.
所以我只是想知道,當你展望第四季度和明年年初時,你能將全公司的價格至少保持在 3M 的穩定水平,以及考慮到過去幾年的通貨膨脹經驗,你進入市場推動價格的方式是否有任何變化。
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Monish D. Patolawala - President & CFO
Yes, Julian, I would just say the same thing that I said with another question before. The way -- I would just say long term, 3M has always been able to add value to its customers. And that is reflected in the pricing that it charges. We look at this not based on just a formula, but we look at it market-by-market, look at our competitive position in market-by-market, look at the value we add. And that's how we come up with our pricing that we go with.
是的,朱利安,我只是想說我之前在另一個問題中說過的同樣的話。我只想說,從長遠來看,3M 一直能夠為其客戶增加價值。這反映在其收費價格上。我們看待這個問題並不只基於一個公式,而是根據每個市場來看待它,根據每個市場來考察我們在每個市場中的競爭地位,考察我們增加的價值。這就是我們制定價格的方式。
And I would say based on the innovation and the value that we add to our customers, long term, I don't see that changing. In the short run, as you have seen, the company has been able to manage inflation through price. And if needed, we'll continue doing that. But overall, right now, the teams are quite focused on delivering the fourth quarter. And then we'll see where long term goes, this topic. It will be a function of demand, a function of inflation. So that's the way I look at it.
我想說,基於我們為客戶增加的創新和價值,從長遠來看,我認為這不會改變。從短期來看,正如你所看到的,該公司已經能夠透過價格來管理通貨膨脹。如果需要,我們將繼續這樣做。但總體而言,現在各支球隊都非常專注於第四節的比賽。然後我們再看看這個話題的長期走向。它將是需求的函數,是通貨膨脹的函數。這就是我的看法。
Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst
Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst
Understood. And then just to focus on a couple of markets within Safety and Industrial that, I guess, had been pretty strong. And most of the sort of rhetoric is fairly strong around them. But organically, you had a little bit of pressure at least or less growth in Q3. And that's the electrical markets and also automotive aftermarket. So just wondered, any color around those in terms of is it just kind of accelerated destocking, distributors just holding off on orders for some reason? Any color at all on auto aftermarket and electrical, please?
明白了。然後只關注安全和工業領域的幾個我認為相當強勁的市場。他們周圍的大多數此類言論都相當強烈。但從本質上講,你至少在第三季面臨一點壓力或成長較少。那就是電氣市場和汽車售後市場。所以我只是想知道,這是否只是加速去庫存,分銷商只是因為某種原因推遲訂單?請問汽車售後市場和電氣方面有任何顏色嗎?
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, Julian, I wouldn't -- we saw a little bit of destocking in electrical markets. That was one of the areas in industrial that we saw that impacting. And I would say our automotive aftermarket probably saw a little bit of adjustments, given what we talked about and Monish highlighted that improving supply chains with distribution in the channel are managing their inventories, their safety stocks, so more in line with stable supply chain.
是的,朱利安,我不會——我們看到電氣市場出現了一些去庫存現象。這是我們看到其影響的工業領域之一。我想說我們的汽車售後市場可能發生了一些調整,考慮到我們所談論的內容,莫尼什強調,透過通路分銷來改善供應鏈正在管理他們的庫存、安全庫存,因此更符合穩定的供應鏈。
So I think that's part of it. Those have both been seeing good market performance as we've gone through the year. I think, again, we're watching closely the trends as we go into the end of the year. But really, it's -- I think reflects on the -- a little bit of destocking and also the end market demand.
所以我認為這是其中的一部分。在過去的一年裡,這兩家公司的市場表現都很好。我認為,隨著年底的臨近,我們會再次密切關注趨勢。但實際上,我認為這反映了一點去庫存以及終端市場需求。
Operator
Operator
That concludes the question-and-answer portion of our conference call. I will now turn the call back over to Mike Roman for some closing comments.
我們的電話會議問答部分到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給邁克·羅曼 (Mike Roman),請他發表一些結束語。
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
Michael F. Roman - Chairman & CEO
To wrap up, we continue to execute our strategies, delivering results in a challenging environment while positioning 3M for the future, prioritizing high-growth markets and geographies where 3M innovation can deliver the most impact. Thank you for joining us.
總而言之,我們將繼續執行我們的策略,在充滿挑戰的環境中取得成果,同時為 3M 的未來做好準備,優先考慮 3M 創新能夠產生最大影響的高成長市場和地區。感謝您加入我們。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,請您斷開線路。