3M (MMM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 3M Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Tuesday, January 24, 2023.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 3M 第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2023 年 1 月 24 日星期二錄製。

I would now like to turn the call over to Bruce Jermeland, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at 3M.

我現在想把電話轉給 3M 投資者關係高級副總裁 Bruce Jermeland。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings conference call. With me today are Mike Roman, 3M's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Monish Patolawala, our Chief Financial and Transformation Officer. Mike and Monish will make some formal comments, then we'll take your questions.

謝謝，大家早上好，歡迎來到我們的第四季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的有 3M 董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Roman；以及我們的首席財務和轉型官 Monish Patolawala。 Mike 和Monish 將發表一些正式意見，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Please note that today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call are posted on the home page of our Investor Relations website at 3m.com.

請注意，本次電話會議隨附的今天的收益發布和幻燈片演示發佈在我們的投資者關係網站 3m.com 的主頁上。

Please turn to Slide 2. Please take a moment to read the forward-looking statement. During today's conference call, we'll be making certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M's future performance and financial results. These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-K lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.

請轉到幻燈片 2。請花點時間閱讀前瞻性聲明。在今天的電話會議上，我們將做出某些預測性陳述，以反映我們目前對 3M 未來業績和財務業績的看法。這些陳述基於某些假設和對未來事件的預期，這些事件受到風險和不確定性的影響。我們最新的 10-K 表格的第 1A 項列出了一些可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的最重要的風險因素。

Please turn to Slide 3. Please note, throughout today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in the attachments to today's press release.

請轉到幻燈片 3。請注意，在今天的整個演示過程中，我們將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標。非 GAAP 措施的對賬可在今天新聞稿的附件中找到。

Before I hand the call over to Mike, I would like to take a moment and highlight the financial reporting change we are making starting here in Q1 2023. As we announced in our press release on December 20, we'll be exiting PFAS manufacturing by the end of 2025. As a result, we have decided to provide additional disclosure by expanding the scope of our non-GAAP measurement adjustments to include the exit of PFAS manufacturing.

在我將電話轉給 Mike 之前，我想花點時間強調一下我們將從 2023 年第一季度開始進行的財務報告變更。正如我們在 12 月 20 日的新聞稿中宣布的那樣，我們將退出 PFAS 生產2025 年底。因此，我們決定通過擴大我們的非 GAAP 衡量調整範圍以包括 PFAS 製造的退出來提供額外的披露。

For 2022, we have treated the Q4 PFAS manufacturing exit cost as a special item in arriving at results adjusted for special items. However, beginning in 2023, we will expand the existing adjustment for special items to also adjust for the sales and estimate of income and associated activity of PFAS manufacturing. Therefore, our outlook for 2023 reflects this adjustment.

對於 2022 年，我們將第 4 季度 PFAS 製造退出成本視為一項特殊項目，以得出針對特殊項目調整的結果。但是，從 2023 年開始，我們將擴大對特殊項目的現有調整，以調整 PFAS 製造的銷售和收入估計以及相關活動。因此，我們對 2023 年的展望反映了這一調整。

Today's press release, press release attachments and slide presentation provide the information regarding our 2022 performance on our existing Q4 2022 non-GAAP basis, along with some comparative information on the new 2023 outlook basis.

今天的新聞稿、新聞稿附件和幻燈片演示提供了我們在現有的 2022 年第四季度非 GAAP 基礎上的 2022 年業績信息，以及新的 2023 年展望基礎上的一些比較信息。

We will be providing a Form 8-K during the first quarter to reflect additional effects of this change in our non-GAAP measures and changes in segment reporting. We remain committed to providing strong transparency in reporting our financial performance. And of course, we are always here to address your questions.

我們將在第一季度提供 8-K 表格，以反映這一變化對我們的非 GAAP 措施和分部報告變化的額外影響。我們仍然致力於在報告我們的財務業績時提供高度的透明度。當然，我們總是在這裡解決您的問題。

With that, please turn to Slide 4, and I'll now hand the call off to Mike. Mike?

有了這個，請轉到幻燈片 4，我現在將電話轉給邁克。麥克風？

Thank you, Bruce. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We continue to focus on delivering for our customers and shareholders in a challenging economic environment with slowing growth, inflation and supply chain disruptions.

謝謝你，布魯斯。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。在增長放緩、通貨膨脹和供應鏈中斷的充滿挑戰的經濟環境中，我們繼續專注於為我們的客戶和股東提供服務。

We posted organic growth of 0.4% versus our expectation of 1% to 3%, along with adjusted margins of 19% and adjusted earnings of $2.28 per share. The slower-than-expected growth was due to rapid declines in consumer-facing markets such as consumer electronics and retail, a dynamic that accelerated in December as consumers sharply cut discretionary spending and retailers adjusted inventory levels.

我們公佈了 0.4% 的有機增長，而我們的預期為 1% 至 3%，調整後的利潤率為 19%，調整後的每股收益為 2.28 美元。低於預期的增長是由於消費電子產品和零售等面向消費者的市場迅速下滑，隨著消費者大幅削減可自由支配的支出和零售商調整庫存水平，這一趨勢在 12 月加速。

We also saw a significant slowing in China due to COVID-related disruptions, along with moderating demand across industrial markets. As demand weakened, we took actions to adjust manufacturing output and control costs, which enabled us to deliver a $250 million inventory improvement.

由於與 COVID 相關的中斷，以及整個工業市場的需求放緩，我們還看到中國經濟顯著放緩。隨著需求減弱，我們採取措施調整製造產量並控製成本，這使我們能夠實現 2.5 億美元的庫存改善。

In addition to actions taken in the second half of last year, today, we announced restructuring in our manufacturing operations, as we expect the demand trends that we saw in December to extend through the first half of 2023. I will discuss this more later in the call.

除了去年下半年採取的行動外，今天，我們還宣布重組我們的製造業務，因為我們預計 12 月看到的需求趨勢將延續到 2023 年上半年。我將在稍後的電話。

With supply chain stabilizing, we are focused on improving manufacturing operations and driving working capital. These are our most significant opportunities to improve margins and cash flow. As we navigate the external environment, we continue to position 3M for the future by investing in growth, productivity and sustainability.

隨著供應鏈的穩定，我們專注於改善製造運營和推動營運資金。這些是我們提高利潤率和現金流的最重要機會。在應對外部環境時，我們通過投資於增長、生產力和可持續性，繼續為 3M 的未來定位。

I will recap 2022 and our outlook for 2023 after Monish takes you through the quarter. Monish?

在 Monish 帶您度過本季度後，我將回顧 2022 年和我們對 2023 年的展望。莫尼什？

Thank you, Mike, and I wish you all a very good morning. Please turn to Slide 5. As you will recall, we highlighted negative trends in our consumer retail and electronics-related businesses in late November. As the fourth quarter progressed, those trends accelerated. We also experienced significant slowing in China as COVID-related impacts resulted in a 17% decline in organic sales in December, and down 8% for the quarter.

謝謝你，邁克，祝大家早上好。請轉到幻燈片 5。您會記得，我們在 11 月下旬強調了我們的消費零售和電子相關業務的負面趨勢。隨著第四季度的進展，這些趨勢加速了。由於與 COVID 相關的影響導致 12 月份有機銷售額下降 17%，本季度下降 8%，我們在中國也經歷了顯著放緩。

Health Care continued to be challenged in its recovery to pre-pandemic levels, given labor shortages and hospital budgets being under pressure, while industrial end markets mostly remain steady.

鑑於勞動力短缺和醫院預算面臨壓力，醫療保健在恢復到大流行前水平的過程中繼續面臨挑戰，而工業終端市場大多保持穩定。

Fourth quarter total sales were $8.1 billion or down 6.2% year-on-year, which included headwinds from foreign currency translation of minus 5% [or] $400 million which is better than the minus 7% we had expected.

第四季度總銷售額為 81 億美元，同比下降 6.2%，其中包括外幣換算帶來的負 5% [或] 4 億美元的逆風，好於我們預期的負 7%。

We also experienced a 1.6% decline from divestitures or nearly $140 million largely from the third quarter divestiture of Food Safety, along with the deconsolidation of Aearo Technologies.

我們還經歷了 1.6% 的資產剝離下降或近 1.4 億美元，主要來自第三季度食品安全資產剝離，以及 Aearo Technologies 的拆分。

On an organic basis, fourth quarter sales increased 0.4% versus last year. This result included an anticipated falloff in disposable respirator demand and the exit of our operations in Russia. These 2 items, combined, negatively impacted organic sales growth by approximately $230 million or 2.6 percentage points. Excluding this decline, Q4 organic sales growth was 3%. On an adjusted basis, fourth quarter operating income was $1.5 billion, with operating margins of 19.1%. Adjusted earnings for the quarter were $2.28 versus $2.45 last year.

在有機基礎上，第四季度銷售額比去年同期增長 0.4%。這一結果包括一次性呼吸器需求的預期下降以及我們在俄羅斯的業務退出。這兩項加起來對有機銷售額增長產生了約 2.3 億美元或 2.6 個百分點的負面影響。排除這一下降，第四季度有機銷售額增長 3%。經調整後，第四季度營業收入為 15 億美元，營業利潤率為 19.1%。本季度調整後收益為 2.28 美元，而去年同期為 2.45 美元。

Turning to the components that impacted fourth quarter operating margins and earnings year-on-year performance. We took a number of actions to navigate the fluid and slowing macroeconomic environment, including managing selling prices to address inflationary pressures, reducing manufacturing output, maintaining strong spending discipline and taking additional restructuring actions to streamline the organization and adjust to slowing end market demand.

轉向影響第四季度營業利潤率和收益同比表現的組成部分。我們採取了一系列行動來駕馭多變且放緩的宏觀經濟環境，包括管理銷售價格以應對通脹壓力、減少製造業產出、保持嚴格的支出紀律以及採取額外的重組行動以精簡組織並適應放緩的終端市場需求。

These actions delivered an underlying benefit to operating margins of 110 basis points and $0.19 to earnings. This helped more than offset headwinds from the sales decline in disposable respirators and Russia exit, which negatively impacted operating margins by 70 basis points and earnings by $0.15 per share.

這些行動帶來了 110 個基點的營業利潤率和 0.19 美元收益的潛在收益。這不僅抵消了一次性呼吸器銷量下降和俄羅斯退出帶來的不利影響，後者對營業利潤率產生了 70 個基點的負面影響，對每股收益產生了 0.15 美元的負面影響。

Inflation continues to impact raw material, logistics and energy costs. These pressures remain persistent and are broad-based. In Q4, raw material cost increased approximately $110 million or a negative impact of 1.4 percentage points to operating margins and $0.16 to earnings.

通貨膨脹繼續影響原材料、物流和能源成本。這些壓力仍然存在，而且範圍廣泛。在第四季度，原材料成本增加了約 1.1 億美元，對營業利潤率產生了 1.4 個百分點的負面影響，對收益產生了 0.16 美元的負面影響。

As mentioned, foreign currency translation was a negative 5% impact to total sales. This resulted in a headwind of $0.10 to earnings per share, however, was a benefit of 10 basis points to margins. Divestitures, primarily Food Safety, along with the deconsolidation of Aearo Technologies, resulted in a year-over-year headwind of $0.04 to earnings per share in the quarter. Finally, other financial items increased earnings by a net $0.09 per share year-over-year driven by lower share count, partially offset by a higher tax rate.

如前所述，外幣換算對總銷售額產生了 5% 的負面影響。這對每股收益造成 0.10 美元的不利影響，但對利潤率有 10 個基點的好處。資產剝離（主要是食品安全）以及 Aearo Technologies 的拆分導致本季度每股收益同比下降 0.04 美元。最後，由於股票數量減少，其他金融項目每股淨收益同比增長 0.09 美元，部分被較高的稅率所抵消。

Please turn to Slide 6. Fourth quarter adjusted free cash flow was $1.7 billion, up 3% year-on-year, with conversion of 131%, up 18 percentage points versus last year's Q4.

請翻到幻燈片 6。第四季度調整後的自由現金流為 17 億美元，同比增長 3%，轉換率為 131%，比去年第四季度增長 18 個百分點。

During the quarter, we aggressively adjusted manufacturing production levels to end market trends, which drove a sequential reduction in inventory levels by $250 million. For the full year, adjusted free cash flow was $4.7 billion with adjusted free cash flow conversion of 82%.

在本季度，我們根據終端市場趨勢積極調整製造生產水平，這推動庫存水平連續減少 2.5 億美元。全年，調整後自由現金流為 47 億美元，調整後自由現金流轉換率為 82%。

Capital expenditures were $506 million in the quarter and $1.75 billion for the year, or up 9% year-on-year as we continue to invest in growth, productivity and sustainability. Looking to 2023, we expect capital expenditures in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion, which includes approximately $200 million of investment in water stewardship related to our exit of PFAS manufacturing.

本季度資本支出為 5.06 億美元，全年資本支出為 17.5 億美元，同比增長 9%，因為我們繼續投資於增長、生產力和可持續性。展望 2023 年，我們預計資本支出將在 15 億美元至 18 億美元之間，其中包括與我們退出 PFAS 製造相關的水資源管理投資約 2 億美元。

During the quarter, we returned $1.4 billion to shareholders through the combination of cash dividends of $820 million and share repurchases of $540 million. For the year, we returned $4.8 billion to shareholders, including $3.4 billion in dividends and $1.5 billion in share repurchases.

本季度，我們通過 8.2 億美元的現金股息和 5.4 億美元的股票回購，向股東返還了 14 億美元。這一年，我們向股東返還了 48 億美元，其中包括 34 億美元的股息和 15 億美元的股票回購。

In addition, we reduced our outstanding share count by 16 million shares via an exchange offer associated with the Food Safety divestiture. Having a strong balance sheet and capital structure remains a priority for 3M because of the flexibility it provides. Net debt at the end of Q4 stood at $12 billion, down 4% year-on-year with net debt-to-EBITDA at 1.4x.

此外，我們通過與食品安全資產剝離相關的交換要約，將我們的流通股數量減少了 1600 萬股。擁有強大的資產負債表和資本結構仍然是 3M 的首要任務，因為它提供了靈活性。第四季度末的淨債務為 120 億美元，同比下降 4%，淨債務與 EBITDA 之比為 1.4 倍。

Please turn to Slide 8 for our business group performance. I will start with our Safety and Industrial business, which posted sales of $2.7 billion or up 1.3% organically. This result included a year-on-year headwind of approximately $165 million due to the ongoing decline in demand for disposable respirators. Excluding disposable respirators, Safety and Industrial grew Q4 organic sales by 7.5%. Our Personal Safety business declined mid-single digits organically, primarily due to the decline in disposable respirator demand.

請轉到幻燈片 8 了解我們的業務組績效。我將從我們的安全和工業業務開始，該業務的銷售額為 27 億美元，有機增長 1.3%。由於對一次性呼吸器的需求持續下降，這一結果包括約 1.65 億美元的同比逆風。不包括一次性呼吸器，安全和工業第四季度的有機銷售額增長了 7.5%。我們的人身安全業務自然下降了中個位數，這主要是由於一次性呼吸器需求下降。

Turning to the rest of Safety and Industrial. Organic growth was led by low double-digit increases in electrical markets, automotive aftermarket and abrasives. Industrial adhesives and tapes and closure and masking systems both declined low single digits.

轉向安全和工業的其餘部分。有機增長由電氣市場、汽車售後市場和磨料市場的低兩位數增長帶動。工業粘合劑和膠帶以及封閉和遮蔽系統均下降了低個位數。

Operationally, the Safety and Industrial stream drove strong execution during the fourth quarter. Adjusted operating income was $611 million or up 9% versus last year. Adjusted operating margins were 22.4%, up 2.7 percentage points as the team managed inflation with price actions, drove yield and efficiency and exercise strong spending discipline while also investing in the business.

在運營方面，安全和工業部門在第四季度推動了強勁的執行。調整後營業收入為 6.11 億美元，比去年增長 9%。調整後的營業利潤率為 22.4%，上升了 2.7 個百分點，因為該團隊通過價格行動來管理通貨膨脹、提高收益和效率並嚴格遵守支出紀律，同時還投資於業務。

Moving to Transportation and Electronics, which posted sales of $2.1 billion or up 1.4% organically. Our auto OEM business increased mid-teens versus a 2% increase in global car and light truck builds. We continue to gain penetration on new automotive platforms while also benefiting from a favorable comparison due to last year's Q4 channel inventory drawdown.

轉向運輸和電子產品，其銷售額為 21 億美元或有機增長 1.4%。我們的汽車 OEM 業務增長了 15%，而全球汽車和輕型卡車生產增長了 2%。我們繼續在新的汽車平台上獲得滲透，同時也受益於去年第四季度渠道庫存下降帶來的有利比較。

Our electronics business declined 10% organically as it continued to be impacted by the significant end market weakness, particularly for smartphones, tablets and TVs.

我們的電子業務有機下降 10%，因為它繼續受到終端市場顯著疲軟的影響，尤其是智能手機、平板電腦和電視。

Turning to the rest of Transportation and Electronics. Advanced materials grew organically low double digits, while both commercial solutions and transportation safety increased low single digits. Transportation and Electronics delivered $366 million in adjusted operating income, down 3% year-on-year. Adjusted operating margins were 17.8%, up 60 basis points versus Q4 last year. The team was able to more than offset manufacturing productivity headwinds and inflationary pressures with ongoing benefits from pricing, along with strong spending discipline and restructuring actions while investing in the business.

轉向運輸和電子的其餘部分。先進材料有機增長低兩位數，而商業解決方案和運輸安全均增長低個位數。運輸和電子業務實現調整後營業收入 3.66 億美元，同比下降 3%。調整後的營業利潤率為 17.8%，比去年第四季度上升 60 個基點。該團隊不僅能夠通過定價帶來的持續收益抵消製造業生產力的不利因素和通貨膨脹壓力，還可以在投資業務時採取嚴格的支出紀律和重組行動。

Looking at our Healthcare business, Q4 sales were $2 billion, with organic growth of 1.9% versus last year. Sales in our medical solutions business declined low single digits organically. Fourth quarter elective health care procedure volumes were approximately 90% of pre-COVID levels as nurse labor shortages and strained hospital budgets continue to impact the pace of recovery. Oral care was up low single digits despite decreased consumer spending on discretionary items. And finally, separation and purification organic sales increased high single digits while Health Information Systems was up mid-single digits.

看看我們的醫療保健業務，第四季度銷售額為 20 億美元，與去年同期相比有機增長 1.9%。我們醫療解決方案業務的銷售額有機地下降到低個位數。由於護士勞動力短缺和醫院預算緊張繼續影響恢復速度，第四季度選擇性醫療保健程序量約為 COVID 前水平的 90%。儘管消費者在非必需品上的支出有所減少，但口腔護理產品的銷售額仍呈低個位數增長。最後，分離和純化有機銷售額增長了高個位數，而健康信息系統則增長了中等個位數。

Health Care's fourth quarter operating income was $421 million, down 18% year-on-year. Operating margins were 20.6%, down 2.9 percentage points, with adjusted EBITDA margins of nearly 29%. Year-on-year operating margins were impacted by manufacturing productivity headwinds, increased raw materials and logistics costs, along with investments in the business. These headwinds were partially offset by pricing actions along with the strong spending discipline.

醫療保健第四季度營業收入為 4.21 億美元，同比下降 18%。營業利潤率為 20.6%，下降 2.9 個百分點，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率接近 29%。同比營業利潤率受到製造業生產力逆風、原材料和物流成本增加以及業務投資的影響。這些不利因素部分被定價行動和嚴格的支出紀律所抵消。

Lastly, our Consumer business posted fourth quarter sales of $1.2 billion. Organic sales declined 5.7% year-on-year with particular weakness in the U.S., which was down high single digits. All businesses declined organically as consumers pulled back on discretionary spending and retailers aggressively took actions to reduce their inventories, particularly in the U.S.

最後，我們的消費者業務第四季度銷售額為 12 億美元。有機銷售額同比下降 5.7%，美國表現尤為疲軟，下降了高個位數。由於消費者減少了可自由支配的支出，而零售商積極採取行動減少庫存，尤其是在美國，所有業務都出現有機下滑。

Looking ahead, we anticipate those trends to continue at least through the first half of 2023. Consumer's fourth quarter operating income was $224 million, down 24% compared to last year, with operating margins of 17.9%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year.

展望未來，我們預計這些趨勢至少會持續到 2023 年上半年。消費者第四季度營業收入為 2.24 億美元，與去年同期相比下降 24%，營業利潤率為 17.9%，同比下降 3.3 個百分點。年。

This year-on-year decline in operating margins was driven by increased end market weakness, higher raw materials and logistics and outsourced hard goods manufacturing costs, manufacturing productivity headwinds, along with investments in the business. These headwinds were partially offset by selling price actions and strong spending discipline.

營業利潤率的同比下降是由於終端市場疲軟加劇、原材料和物流以及外包耐用品製造成本上升、製造業生產力逆風以及對業務的投資。這些逆風部分被銷售價格行為和嚴格的支出紀律所抵消。

I'll now turn it back over to Mike for a recap of our full year 2022 performance. Please turn to Slide 9.

現在，我將把它轉回給邁克，讓他回顧一下我們 2022 年全年的表現。請轉到幻燈片 9。

Thank you, Monish. 2022 was a pivotal year for 3M. Throughout the year, we took decisive actions that are foundational to our future and at the same time, maintained our focus on our customers. We addressed inflation through selling price actions and proactively managed cost as demand softened throughout the year.

謝謝你，莫尼什。 2022 年是 3M 的關鍵一年。在這一年中，我們採取了對我們的未來至關重要的果斷行動，同時保持了對客戶的關注。隨著全年需求疲軟，我們通過銷售價格行動解決了通貨膨脹問題並主動管理成本。

To address supply chain disruptions, we did what was necessary to serve customers and reduce cycle times, including opening a new distribution center on the East Coast. We navigated COVID-related lockdowns in China. We reached agreement with the Flemish government to restart operations in Zwijndrecht and exited our Russia business.

為了解決供應鏈中斷問題，我們採取了必要措施來為客戶提供服務並縮短週期時間，包括在東海岸開設了一個新的配送中心。我們在中國應對了與 COVID 相關的封鎖。我們與佛蘭芒政府達成協議，重啟在 Zwijndrecht 的業務，並退出俄羅斯業務。

As always, we put 3M science to work to solve customer needs across our market-leading businesses. In Safety and Industrial, our new robotic paint repair system received multiple prestigious honors as we continue to drive innovation in automotive manufacturing, an area we led in for more than 100 years.

一如既往，我們將 3M 科學用於解決我們市場領先業務中的客戶需求。在安全和工業領域，隨著我們繼續推動汽車製造領域的創新，我們的新型機器人油漆修復系統獲得了多項殊榮，我們在這一領域領先 100 多年。

In Consumer, we launched Scotch Cushion Lock, a sustainable alternative to plastic wrap, which was recognized by Fast Company as one of its world-changing ideas. In Health Care, we advanced our leadership in wound care, which includes our negative pressure wound therapies, becoming the first solution of its kind to surpass 2,000 peer-reviewed studies.

在消費者領域，我們推出了 Scotch Cushion Lock，這是一種可持續的保鮮膜替代品，被 Fast Company 認為是其改變世界的創意之一。在醫療保健領域，我們提升了在傷口護理方面的領先地位，其中包括我們的負壓傷口療法，成為同類解決方案中第一個超過 2,000 項同行評審研究的解決方案。

In Transportation and Electronics, we introduced new thermal barrier films to improve performance of electric car batteries, one element of our $0.5 billion automotive electrification platform, which delivered 30% organic growth in 2022. Company-wide, for the total year, we delivered organic growth of 1% or 3% excluding the impact of disposable respirators and our Russia exit.

在交通和電子領域，我們推出了新的隔熱膜以提高電動汽車電池的性能，這是我們價值 5 億美元的汽車電氣化平台的一個組成部分，該平台在 2022 年實現了 30% 的有機增長。在整個公司範圍內，我們全年實現了有機增長不包括一次性呼吸器和我們的俄羅斯退出的影響，增長 1% 或 3%。

We posted adjusted EPS of $10.10, along with adjusted free cash flow of $4.7 billion, with an adjusted conversion rate of 82%. We strengthened our balance sheet and reduced net debt by $0.5 billion, ending 2022 with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.4. This enabled us to invest in the business and returned $4.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

我們發布的調整後每股收益為 10.10 美元，調整後自由現金流為 47 億美元，調整後轉換率為 82%。我們加強了資產負債表並將淨債務減少了 5 億美元，到 2022 年底淨債務與 EBITDA 之比為 1.4。這使我們能夠投資業務，並通過股息和股票回購向股東返還 48 億美元。

At the same time, we took actions to position us for the long term. We divested our Food Safety business, receiving $1 billion and reducing our outstanding share count by 16 million. We continue to progress in our health care spin-off, which will create 2 world-class public companies better positioned to drive growth and value creation.

與此同時，我們採取了長期定位我們的行動。我們剝離了我們的食品安全業務，獲得了 10 億美元，並將我們的流通股數量減少了 1600 萬股。我們繼續推進我們的醫療保健分拆，這將創建 2 家世界級的上市公司，更好地推動增長和價值創造。

With respect to combat arms litigation, as last week's report from the Chapter 11 comediators indicated, 3M continues to support Aearo Technologies in this ongoing confidential mediation process. We continue to address PFAS litigation by defending ourselves in court or negotiating resolutions as appropriate.

關於戰鬥武器訴訟，正如第 11 章調解人上週的報告所指出的那樣，3M 繼續支持 Aearo Technologies 參與正在進行的保密調解程序。我們繼續通過在法庭上為自己辯護或酌情協商解決方案來解決 PFAS 訴訟。

We also announced we will exit all PFAS manufacturing by the end of 2025. Our decision is based on careful consideration of the external landscape, including regulatory trends and changing stakeholder expectations. We simplified and streamlined our supply chain organization and advanced our digital strategies to better serve customers. We followed through on our sustainability commitments. We are ahead of schedule installing state-of-the-art filtration technologies and factories around the world. We now have capabilities up and running at all 3 of our largest water using sites in the U.S. and in Zwijndrecht.

我們還宣布我們將在 2025 年底之前退出所有 PFAS 製造。我們的決定是基於對外部環境的仔細考慮，包括監管趨勢和不斷變化的利益相關者期望。我們簡化並簡化了我們的供應鏈組織，並推進了我們的數字戰略，以更好地為客戶服務。我們履行了我們的可持續發展承諾。我們提前在世界各地安裝了最先進的過濾技術和工廠。現在，我們在美國和 Zwijndrecht 的所有 3 個最大的用水地點都具備正常運行的能力。

We supported employee health, safety and well-being, including new flexible work arrangements and factory investments and we advanced diversity, equity and inclusion, with each of our business groups now executing initiatives. The steps we took in 2022 and the steps we are continuing to take in 2023, position us well as we look toward the future.

我們支持員工的健康、安全和福祉，包括新的靈活工作安排和工廠投資，我們推進多元化、公平和包容，我們的每個業務部門現在都在執行舉措。我們在 2022 年採取的步驟和我們將在 2023 年繼續採取的步驟，使我們在展望未來時處於有利地位。

Please turn to Slide 11. We expect market and macroeconomic challenges to persist in 2023. Based on this outlook, we expect organic growth of minus 3% to flat, along with adjusted EPS of $8.50 to $9, and adjusted free cash flow conversion of 90% to 100%.

請轉到幻燈片 11。我們預計市場和宏觀經濟挑戰將在 2023 年持續存在。基於這一前景，我們預計有機增長為負 3% 至持平，調整後的每股收益為 8.50 美元至 9 美元，調整後的自由現金流轉換為 90 % 至 100%。

Our expectations reflect the slowing in demand we are seeing as we start 2023. Supply chains are improving. However, we still see headwinds from material availability and inflation, albeit at a lower level. We are not satisfied with our progress or performance. We are taking additional actions, building on the actions taken in the second half of 2022 to reduce cost, structure and inventory.

我們的預期反映了我們在 2023 年開始時看到的需求放緩。供應鏈正在改善。然而，我們仍然看到材料供應和通貨膨脹的不利因素，儘管水平較低。我們對我們的進步或表現不滿意。我們正在採取額外行動，以 2022 年下半年採取的行動為基礎，以降低成本、結構和庫存。

We have implemented strict control of hiring and discretionary spending. Today, we announced that we will reduce approximately 2,500 global manufacturing roles, a necessary decision to further align with adjusted production volumes. In addition to the actions we are taking to respond to the macroeconomic environment, we are taking a deeper look at everything we do as we prepare for the Health Care spin.

我們對招聘和可自由支配的開支實施了嚴格控制。今天，我們宣布將減少約 2,500 個全球製造職位，這是進一步與調整後的產量保持一致的必要決定。除了我們為應對宏觀經濟環境而採取的行動外，我們還在更深入地審視我們在為醫療保健業務做準備時所做的一切。

As we move through the year, we will take additional actions to improve supply chain performance, drive simplification and bring us even closer to our customers. At the same time, we win in the market because we stay close to customers and continue to invest in innovation even in the most difficult times.

在這一年中，我們將採取更多行動來提高供應鏈績效、推動簡化並拉近我們與客戶的距離。同時，我們贏得了市場，因為我們貼近客戶，即使在最困難的時候也繼續投資於創新。

We will continue to invest in growth opportunities in our businesses, aligned to global trends that take best advantage of our innovation. Automotive electrification, industrial automation, biopharma processing and home improvement are just a few examples of large, fast-growing markets where we are investing and where 3M innovation can make a difference.

我們將繼續投資於我們業務的增長機會，與全球趨勢保持一致，充分利用我們的創新。汽車電氣化、工業自動化、生物製藥加工和家居裝修只是我們正在投資的快速增長的大型市場的幾個例子，3M 的創新可以在這些市場發揮作用。

We will continue to prepare for the spin-off of our Health Care business, which presents a tremendous value creation opportunity while at the same time, preparing 3M for future success. We will work to resolve litigation we face following through on the actions we initiated in 2022.

我們將繼續為我們的醫療保健業務的分拆做準備，這提供了巨大的價值創造機會，同時也為 3M 未來的成功做好了準備。我們將努力解決我們在 2022 年發起的行動之後面臨的訴訟。

Underpinning all of our work will be the strengths of 3M, our people, our industry-leading innovation, our advanced manufacturing, our global capabilities and our iconic brands. I am confident in our future as we exit 2023, we will be a stronger, leaner and more focused 3M.

支撐我們所有工作的將是 3M 的優勢、我們的員工、我們行業領先的創新、我們的先進製造、我們的全球能力和我們的標誌性品牌。我對我們的未來充滿信心，因為我們將在 2023 年退出，我們將成為一個更強大、更精簡、更專注的 3M。

Monish will now cover the details of our outlook. Monish?

莫尼什現在將詳細介紹我們的展望。莫尼什？

Thank you, Mike. Please turn to Slide 12. The macroeconomic environment remains very fluid and uncertain. For 2023, we anticipate that GDP and IPI will continue to moderate with both currently estimated to be around 1.5% or about half of 2022 levels. Therefore, against this backdrop, we feel it prudent to set our expectations to reflect this reality. .

謝謝你，邁克。請轉到幻燈片 12。宏觀經濟環境仍然非常不穩定和不確定。對於 2023 年，我們預計 GDP 和 IPI 將繼續放緩，目前估計兩者都在 1.5% 左右或 2022 年水平的一半左右。因此，在這種背景下，我們認為設定預期以反映這一現實是明智的。 .

As Mike mentioned, we estimate our full year adjusted organic sales growth to be in the range of minus 3% to flat. This includes selling prices up low single digits Therefore, organic volumes are expected to be down low to mid-single digits for the year. This range also includes an estimated 2 percentage point headwind from the ongoing decline in disposable respirator demand, along with the impact of our exit from Russia. We currently expect our disposable respirator demand to be down to pre-pandemic levels.

正如 Mike 所提到的，我們估計我們全年調整後的有機銷售額增長在負 3% 至持平之間。這包括低個位數的銷售價格因此，預計今年有機銷量將下降到中個位數。這一範圍還包括一次性呼吸器需求持續下降以及我們退出俄羅斯的影響估計 2 個百分點的逆風。我們目前預計我們的一次性呼吸器需求將下降到大流行前的水平。

As the strength of the U.S. dollar carries into 2023, we estimate a foreign currency translation impact to sales of minus 1% to minus 2%. And divestitures that were completed in 2022 will be a headwind to sales of nearly 1 percentage point. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range of $8.50 to $9 per share. This range includes a combined earnings headwind of $0.55 to $0.80 per share year-on-year from the following 3 items.

隨著美元的強勢延續到 2023 年，我們估計外幣換算對銷售額的影響為負 1% 至負 2%。 2022 年完成的資產剝離將對銷售額造成近 1 個百分點的不利影響。調整後的收益預計在每股 8.50 美元至 9 美元之間。該範圍包括以下 3 項同比每股收益 0.55 美元至 0.80 美元的綜合逆風。

First, the expected sales decline of disposable respirators and exit of Russia will be an impact of minus $0.30 to minus $0.45. Second, foreign currency will be a headwind of minus $0.10 to $0.20. And third, divestiture impacts would be a minus $0.15.

首先，一次性口罩的預期銷售額下降和俄羅斯退出將產生負 0.30 美元至負 0.45 美元的影響。其次，外匯將是負 0.10 美元至 0.20 美元的逆風。第三，資產剝離的影響為負 0.15 美元。

In addition, the 2022 carryover impact of higher raw material and logistics costs, combined with energy inflation, creates a year-on-year headwind of approximately $150 million to $250 million or roughly $0.20 to $0.35 to EPS.

此外，2022 年原材料和物流成本上升的結轉影響，加上能源通脹，對每股收益造成約 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元或約 0.20 至 0.35 美元的同比逆風。

And finally, nonoperating items are estimated to be an impact to earnings per share of flat to minus $0.10. This range includes a year-on-year increase in nonoperating pension expense of $125 million, a full year adjusted tax rate in the range of 18% to 19% and a lower year-on-year outstanding share count.

最後，估計非經營項目對每股收益的影響持平至負 0.10 美元。這一範圍包括非營業養老金支出同比增長 1.25 億美元，全年調整後的稅率在 18% 至 19% 之間，以及較低的同比流通股數量。

While there are a number of headwinds to earnings in 2023, ultimately, our full year performance will be driven by organic sales volumes, sustained progress in global supply chains and raw material availability, and our ability to drive improvements and reduce costs in our manufacturing and supply chain operations.

儘管 2023 年的收益存在許多不利因素，但最終，我們的全年業績將受到有機銷量、全球供應鍊和原材料供應的持續進步以及我們推動改進和降低製造成本的能力和供應鏈運作。

Finally, full year adjusted free cash flow conversion is forecasted to be in the range of 90% to 100%. This range includes the continued healing of global supply chains, expected improvements in working capital performance, particularly inventory reductions and full year capital expenditures of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion, which includes approximately $200 million of investment in water stewardship related to our exit of PFAS manufacturing.

最後，全年調整後的自由現金流轉換率預計在 90% 至 100% 之間。這一範圍包括全球供應鏈的持續修復、營運資本績效的預期改善，特別是庫存減少和 15 億至 18 億美元的全年資本支出，其中包括與我們退出 PFAS 製造業相關的約 2 億美元的水資源管理投資.

Please turn to Slide 13. Looking at our expected performance by business. We see safety and industrial organic sales growth to be down low single digits in 2023. This includes an estimated decline in disposable respirator sales of $450 million to $550 million or a negative impact of approximately 4 percentage points as the business returns to pre-pandemic levels. Demand across industrial end markets is moderating as customers remain cautious. Our Safety and Industrial team will also be monitoring the recovery of industrial production activity in China as we start the year.

請轉到幻燈片 13。查看我們按業務劃分的預期績效。我們預計到 2023 年安全和工業有機銷售額將下降至低個位數。這包括一次性呼吸器銷售額估計下降 4.5 億美元至 5.5 億美元，或者隨著業務恢復到大流行前水平而產生約 4 個百分點的負面影響.由於客戶保持謹慎，整個工業終端市場的需求正在放緩。我們的安全和工業團隊也將在今年年初監測中國工業生產活動的複蘇情況。

Adjusted organic sales growth for Transportation and Electronics, excluding the impact of the exit of PFAS manufacturing is forecasted to be down mid-single digits to flat organically. Looking across end markets, automotive unit volume production is currently forecasted to be up nearly 4% year-on-year.

運輸和電子產品的調整後有機銷售增長（不包括 PFAS 製造業退出的影響）預計將下降中等個位數至有機持平。縱觀終端市場，目前預計汽車單位產量將同比增長近 4%。

We also expect automotive electrification trends to remain strong as we leverage our technologies and develop new innovative solutions for our automotive OEM customers. Electronics, however, is expected to be down significantly due to weak end market demand for TVs, tablets and smartphones, along with the ongoing impact of display technology shifting to OLED from LCD.

我們還預計，隨著我們利用我們的技術並為我們的汽車 OEM 客戶開發新的創新解決方案，汽車電氣化趨勢將保持強勁。然而，由於終端市場對電視、平板電腦和智能手機的需求疲軟，以及顯示技術從 LCD 轉向 OLED 的持續影響，電子產品預計將大幅下滑。

Health Care's organic sales growth is anticipated to be up low to mid-single digits versus 2022. We expect gradual improvement in health care elective procedure volumes as nurse labor shortages and strained hospital budgets continue to impact global health care systems.

與 2022 年相比，醫療保健的有機銷售增長預計將達到中低個位數。我們預計，隨著護士勞動力短缺和醫院預算緊張繼續影響全球醫療保健系統，醫療保健選擇性手術量將逐步改善。

In oral care, we will be monitoring consumer discretionary spending and its impact on patient visits, including orthodontic care. The Health Care team continues to create differentiated value and deliver strong margins for the attractive end markets we serve.

在口腔護理方面，我們將監測消費者可自由支配的支出及其對患者就診的影響，包括正畸護理。醫療保健團隊繼續為我們所服務的有吸引力的終端市場創造差異化價值並提供可觀的利潤。

And finally, organic sales in Consumer are estimated to be down low single digits to flat as U.S. consumers remain cautious and retailers continue to aggressively reduce the excess inventory levels. Despite these near-term challenges, the consumer team remains focused on leveraging our iconic brands and accelerating new product launches in 2023.

最後，由於美國消費者保持謹慎且零售商繼續積極降低過剩庫存水平，預計消費者的有機銷售額將下降至低個位數至持平。儘管存在這些近期挑戰，消費者團隊仍專注於利用我們的標誌性品牌並在 2023 年加快新產品的發布。

Please turn to Slide 14. Before we go to Q&A, I want to walk through how we are seeing the first quarter. First, 3 weeks into January, we are seeing continued slowing in organic sales volume as we start the year. This slow start is driven by the same weakening end market trends that impacted the finish to 2022. We expect soft consumer discretionary spending, along with retailer destocking to continue into the first quarter.

請轉到幻燈片 14。在我們進行問答之前，我想先介紹一下我們對第一季度的看法。首先，進入 1 月的 3 週後，我們看到年初的有機銷量持續放緩。這一緩慢的開局是由影響到 2022 年底的同樣疲軟的終端市場趨勢推動的。我們預計消費者可自由支配支出疲軟以及零售商去庫存將持續到第一季度。

Sales of electronic devices are forecasted to be down between 10% and 30% sequentially in the first quarter, while semiconductor end markets and automotive builds are down mid-single digits sequentially. Health Care and oral care elective procedure volumes are expected to be at the same levels as Q4. And as we have noted, industrial end markets are mixed.

預計第一季度電子設備銷售額將環比下降 10% 至 30%，而半導體終端市場和汽車製造環比下降中個位數。醫療保健和口腔護理選擇性手術量預計與第四季度持平。正如我們所指出的，工業終端市場喜憂參半。

And we anticipate the ongoing COVID-related challenges to continue in China and the geopolitical situation in EMEA to persist. Therefore, taking all of these items into consideration, we estimate Q1 total adjusted sales in the range of $7.2 billion to $7.6 billion versus $8.5 billion adjusted for the exit of PFAS manufacturing or down 10% to 15% year-on-year.

我們預計與 COVID 相關的持續挑戰將在中國繼續存在，而 EMEA 的地緣政治局勢將持續存在。因此，考慮到所有這些項目，我們估計第一季度調整後的總銷售額在 72 億美元至 76 億美元之間，而針對 PFAS 製造業的退出調整後的銷售額為 85 億美元，同比下降 10% 至 15%。

This anticipated year-on-year decline includes headwinds of 3 to 4 percentage points from disposable respirator sales declines and Russia exit, 3 to 4 percentage points from foreign currency translation, and 1 percentage point impact from divestitures. Taking these factors into account, we expect Q1 organic sales to be down low single digits to mid-single digits.

這一預期的同比下降包括一次性呼吸器銷售下降和俄羅斯退出 3 至 4 個百分點的逆風、外幣換算的 3 至 4 個百分點以及資產剝離的 1 個百分點的影響。考慮到這些因素，我們預計第一季度的有機銷售額將下降至低個位數至中個位數。

From an EPS perspective, we estimate that first quarter adjusted earnings per share will be in the range of $1.25 to $1.65. This range is impacted by the continued slowing of organic sales volumes, a pretax restructuring charge of $75 million to $100 million or $0.10 to $0.15 per share, a tax rate of approximately 19%, along with normal Q1 items.

從每股收益的角度來看，我們估計第一季度調整後的每股收益將在 1.25 美元至 1.65 美元之間。這一範圍受到有機銷量持續放緩、7500 萬至 1 億美元或每股 0.10 至 0.15 美元的稅前重組費用、大約 19% 的稅率以及正常的第一季度項目的影響。

As you can see, the first quarter presents a tough start to the year. We will have our most challenging year-on-year comps related to the declining disposable respirator demand and our exit of Russia. Ultimately, organic volume trends will be the biggest factor in determining how the quarter will turn out. 2023 is an important year as we work on progressing our strategies, including preparing for the spin of Health Care, improving our manufacturing and supply chain operations, and taking actions to further streamline the organization.

如您所見，第一季度是今年的艱難開局。我們將面臨與一次性呼吸器需求下降和我們退出俄羅斯相關的最具挑戰性的年度比較。最終，有機銷量趨勢將是決定本季度結果的最大因素。 2023 年是重要的一年，因為我們致力於推進我們的戰略，包括為醫療保健的分拆做準備，改善我們的製造和供應鏈運營，以及採取行動進一步精簡組織。

We are focused on creating the shortest path to the customer and providing innovative solutions to their most challenging problems. We will remain nimble and take appropriate actions as we respond to changing market dynamics. And we will continue to invest in growth, productivity and sustainability to ensure the long-term success of our enterprise.

我們專注於為客戶創造最短路徑，並為他們最具挑戰性的問題提供創新的解決方案。在應對不斷變化的市場動態時，我們將保持敏捷並採取適當的行動。我們將繼續投資於增長、生產力和可持續性，以確保我們企業的長期成功。

To wrap up, I continue to be bullish on our long-term trends. The large and attractive end markets we serve provide exciting opportunities for the future of 3M. We are not satisfied with our performance and the expected start to this year. We are working to aggressively address our operating performance in this challenging environment.

最後，我繼續看好我們的長期趨勢。我們所服務的龐大而有吸引力的終端市場為 3M 的未來提供了令人興奮的機會。我們對我們的表現和今年的預期開局不滿意。我們正努力在這個充滿挑戰的環境中積極解決我們的經營業績問題。

We expect organic sales volumes will improve as consumer retail and consumer electronic markets stabilize, China works through its COVID-related challenges and as our year-on-year comps ease. We also expect supply chains to continue to heal and raw materials and logistic cost headwinds to abate.

我們預計，隨著消費零售和消費電子市場穩定、中國努力應對與 COVID 相關的挑戰以及我們的同比增長放緩，有機銷量將有所改善。我們還預計供應鏈將繼續恢復，原材料和物流成本的不利因素將減弱。

Therefore, we anticipate improvements in organic growth, operating margins, earnings and cash flow as we progress through the year. As you've heard me say before, there is always more we can do and we will do to improve our performance. I want to thank our customers and suppliers for their partnerships and the 3M employees for their hard work and dedication as they continue delivering for our customers. That concludes my remarks.

因此，我們預計隨著今年的進展，有機增長、營業利潤率、收益和現金流都會有所改善。正如你之前聽我說過的那樣，我們總是可以做更多的事情，我們也會做更多的事情來提高我們的表現。我要感謝我們的客戶和供應商的合作夥伴關係，以及 3M 員工在繼續為我們的客戶提供服務時的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我的發言到此結束。

We will now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

I was hoping you could walk us through, just perhaps logistically or opportunistically, how you exit PFAS. It's so kind of integrated with your product line, your manufacturing systems. Can you sell some facilities? Can you extract some value? Or is it -- or do you just have to kind of close -- lock up the facility and walk away? And how does that kind of work logistically?

我希望您能從後勤或機會主義的角度向我們介紹如何退出 PFAS。它與您的產品線、您的製造系統集成得如此之好。你能賣掉一些設施嗎？你能提取一些價值嗎？或者是 - 或者你只需要關閉 - 鎖定設施然後走開？這種工作在邏輯上是如何進行的？

Yes, Scott. So maybe I'll take you back to the announcement of the exit. We said we'll exit all PFAS manufacturing by the end of 2025. We also said we would work to discontinue use of PFAS in our products broadly across the company. That's both in our products but also in the manufacturing of our products.

是的，斯科特。所以也許我會帶你回到退出公告。我們表示，我們將在 2025 年底之前退出所有 PFAS 製造。我們還表示，我們將努力停止在整個公司的產品中使用 PFAS。這既存在於我們的產品中，也存在於我們產品的製造過程中。

And I think your question is really on our manufacturing part of that. And we said we will meet contractual commitments that we have to our customers, and we're working closely with them to manage that as we make this transition. But ultimately, also, I talked about that we are not planning and won't sell the businesses and that we will plan to shut them down as we work through the transition as we get to the end of 2025.

我認為你的問題實際上是關於我們的製造部分。我們說我們將履行我們對客戶的合同承諾，並且我們正在與他們密切合作以在我們進行此過渡時管理它。但最終，我也談到了我們沒有計劃也不會出售這些業務，我們將計劃在我們到 2025 年底完成過渡期間關閉它們。

Scott, just also a reminder, as we disclosed, we said we would take -- the exit cost of this will be in the range of $1.3 billion to $2.3 billion. And we took a fourth quarter charge of $800 million, that's included in that range of $1.3 billion to $2.3 billion.

斯科特，也提醒一下，正如我們所披露的那樣，我們說過我們會採取 - 退出成本將在 13 億美元至 23 億美元之間。我們在第四季度收取了 8 億美元的費用，這包括在 13 億美元至 23 億美元的範圍內。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you talked about doing some further restructuring, perhaps help us understand the scope or scale, or at least are you talking about -- I think you mentioned 2,500 people. But are there rooftops and meaningful kind of cost out that you see in this plan?

好的。這很有幫助。然後你談到做一些進一步的重組，也許可以幫助我們了解範圍或規模，或者至少你是在談論 - 我想你提到了 2,500 人。但是你在這個計劃中看到了屋頂和有意義的成本嗎？

Yes, Scott. So the announcement we made today was 2,500 jobs in manufacturing, really is responding to the volume that we see, the outlook for the volume. And that's -- we're putting a focus on supply chain. We see an opportunity to continue to streamline our supply chain. We hope to take advantage of some of the tailwinds as supply chains heal, as Monish talked about.

是的，斯科特。因此，我們今天宣布的是在製造業提供 2,500 個工作崗位，這確實是對我們看到的數量和數量前景的回應。那就是——我們將重點放在供應鏈上。我們看到了繼續精簡供應鏈的機會。正如 Monish 所說，我們希望在供應鏈恢復時利用一些順風。

We're taking actions ourselves, and we're looking at what additional actions we can take there. And we're looking deeper in the company as well as we work to prepare for the Health Care spin, we've been looking at 3M ParentCo as well, and how do we simplify, streamline and put our position ourselves closer to customers. So it's really looking deeper and broader. And I think taking actions, proactively taking actions against the outlook we have for our markets.

我們自己正在採取行動，我們正在研究我們可以在那裡採取哪些額外行動。我們正在更深入地了解公司，並努力為醫療保健業務做準備，我們也一直在關注 3M ParentCo，以及我們如何簡化、精簡併使我們的位置更接近客戶。所以它真的看起來更深更廣。我認為採取行動，積極主動地針對我們對市場的前景採取行動。

Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Andrew Kaplowitz。

Mike or Monish, you mentioned that industrial end markets are moderating, customers are cautious. I think, for instance, you mentioned industrial adhesives and tapes were down in Q4. Has there been a material change from conversations that you've had previously with industrial customers? Or is this just gradual moderation?

Mike 或 Monish，你提到工業終端市場正在放緩，客戶持謹慎態度。我想，例如，你提到工業粘合劑和膠帶在第四季度有所下降。您之前與工業客戶的對話是否發生了實質性變化？或者這只是漸進的節制？

And then is the regional weakness that you're seeing in China just a function of COVID interruption and more consumer base versus end demand related? And how do you think that pans out in '23?

然後，您在中國看到的區域性弱點是否只是 COVID 中斷和更多消費者基礎與最終需求相關的函數？您如何看待 23 年的結果？

Yes. Andy, back to Monish's comments, we're seeing kind of mixed performance in the industrial markets. We see strengths as we said, as we came through the quarter in areas like electrical markets and automotive aftermarket. We were seeing some moderation in specific end market segments.

是的。安迪，回到莫尼什的評論，我們看到工業市場的表現好壞參半。我們看到了我們所說的優勢，因為我們在電氣市場和汽車售後市場等領域度過了本季度。我們看到特定終端細分市場有所放緩。

And the comment about industrial adhesives and tapes and closure and masking is some of that is related to the electronics slowdown. So that's part of that impact. It's also impacted by China. So China has really got a couple of things that are part of the slowdown. One of them is COVID and the interruption in the markets in industrial production and GDP. It's also reflecting the importance of electronics to that market into our business there in China. And we see that continuing those dynamics that we saw in Q4 continuing into the start of the new year.

關於工業粘合劑和膠帶以及封閉和掩蔽的評論部分與電子產品放緩有關。所以這是影響的一部分。它也受到中國的影響。所以中國確實有一些事情是經濟放緩的一部分。其中之一是 COVID 以及工業生產和 GDP 市場的中斷。這也反映了電子產品對該市場對我們在中國業務的重要性。我們看到，我們在第四季度看到的那些動態一直持續到新年伊始。

We saw some moderation in specific segments of industrial. We saw specialty vehicle construction markets. We saw some moderation coming through the end of the quarter. We're off to a slow start as we start the year. There's a couple of areas of destocking really related to those end market segments where we've seen nothing more broad-based than that. We had strong performance across some of those other end markets in industrial. But we're starting to see some moderating and, like I said, January is off to a slower start for industrial.

我們看到特定工業領域有所放緩。我們看到了特種車輛製造市場。到本季度末，我們看到了一些緩和。開年之際，我們開局緩慢。有幾個去庫存領域確實與那些終端市場領域相關，我們沒有看到比這更廣泛的領域。我們在其他一些工業終端市場表現強勁。但我們開始看到一些緩和，就像我說的那樣，1 月份的工業開局較慢。

Mike, that's helpful. And then maybe could you give us a little more color regarding price versus cost expectations for '23. You mentioned the low single-digit price improvement you're seeing. You also mentioned supply chains are healing. Are you generally seeing pricing hold up for you despite some of this demand weakness across the portfolio? And then versus raw material and energy related headwinds, does that price versus cost equation getting increasingly green as you go throughout the year?

邁克，這很有幫助。然後也許你能給我們更多關於 23 年價格與成本預期的顏色。您提到了您所看到的低個位數價格改善。您還提到供應鏈正在癒合。儘管整個投資組合中存在一些需求疲軟，但您是否普遍認為定價對您有利？然後與原材料和能源相關的逆風相比，價格與成本的等式是否隨著全年的發展而變得越來越綠色？

Yes. So I think 2 different points in there, Andy. As you correctly pointed out, the carryover impact on what we have assumed right now in the guide is 2 pieces. On the selling price, we said approximately 2%. At the same time, the carryover impact of both raw materials and energy inflation is approximately [150 to 250]. So when you just do that equation together, right now, it's positive.

是的。所以我認為有兩點不同，安迪。正如您正確指出的那樣，對我們現在在指南中假設的結轉影響是 2 件。關於售價，我們說大約是 2%。同時，原材料和能源通脹的結轉影響約為 [150 至 250]。所以當你一起做那個方程式時，現在，它是積極的。

I think what we'll see as we go through is how do supply chains heal and how fast can we get the cost out. But at the same time, it will take a little bit of time as we sell through our higher cost goods through our inventory, you're going to see some of that moderate, but it will start showing up as the year progresses.

我認為我們在經歷過程中會看到的是供應鏈如何恢復以及我們能以多快的速度降低成本。但與此同時，隨著我們通過庫存銷售成本較高的商品，需要一些時間，你會看到一些溫和的，但隨著時間的推移，它會開始出現。

The key question for us that we have to think through and that's what we are thinking through is, as deflation starts showing up in the economy, the discussion that's going to come up is the elasticity of price across not just our company but across all companies.

對我們來說，我們必須思考的關鍵問題是，這就是我們正在思考的問題，隨著經濟開始出現通貨緊縮，將要討論的不僅是我們公司的價格彈性，而是所有公司的價格彈性.

And what we have found over time, Andy, as you know, 3M so well that, our innovation ultimately drives the value that we add for our customers. And historically, we have been able to have a good price cost equation because of the value that we add for our customers. So seeing what we'll see in '23 will depend on supply chains and what plays out in the long run, we are very confident that the price/cost equation continues to be green just because of the value we add to our customers.

隨著時間的推移，我們發現，安迪，正如你所知，3M 非常好，我們的創新最終推動了我們為客戶增加的價值。從歷史上看，由於我們為客戶增加的價值，我們能夠有一個很好的價格成本方程。因此，看到我們將在 23 年看到的情況將取決於供應鏈以及從長遠來看會發生什麼，我們非常有信心價格/成本等式繼續保持綠色，因為我們為客戶增加了價值。

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Obin。

Just a question. What are you guys just -- and if I missed it, I apologize, but are you sort of modeling an explicit recession in your forecast? What are your macroeconomic assumptions? I know you sort of said things are slow, but are you explicitly modeling a recession?

就一個問題。你們是什麼人——如果我錯過了，我深表歉意，但你們是不是在為預測中的明確衰退建模？您的宏觀經濟假設是什麼？我知道你有點說事情進展緩慢，但你是在明確模擬經濟衰退嗎？

Yes, Andrew, underlying our view of the year is -- the projection for the macro is part of it. And then we're talking about specific markets and dynamics that we're seeing coming through the quarter into -- coming through the fourth quarter into the new year.

是的，安德魯，我們對今年的看法是——宏觀預測是其中的一部分。然後我們談論的是我們在本季度看到的特定市場和動態——從第四季度到新的一年。

So when you look at the macro global GDP, IPI in the 1.5% kind of range is the outlook for the year. You see U.S. softer than that. You see GDP below 1%. You see IPI even projected to turn negative as we get into the middle of the year. So those are kind of the macro dynamics that we're looking at.

所以當你看宏觀全球 GDP 時，IPI 在 1.5% 的範圍內就是今年的前景。你看美國比那軟。你看到 GDP 低於 1%。你會看到 IPI 甚至預計會在我們進入年中時變為負數。所以這些就是我們正在研究的宏觀動態。

We're also looking closely as we talked about in a couple of these market segments. Fourth quarter, we saw this 10% to 30% decline in the consumer electronics build and that is expected and projected. I would say, to continue as we get into first quarter and the first half of the year and consumer discretionary spending and the impact on the -- our end markets is -- that was in decline in Q4, I expect that to continue.

正如我們在其中幾個細分市場中談到的那樣，我們也在密切關注。第四季度，我們看到消費電子產品的產量下降了 10% 到 30%，這是預期和預測的。我想說的是，隨著我們進入第一季度和今年上半年，消費者可自由支配支出以及對我們的終端市場的影響在第四季度下降，我預計這種情況將繼續下去。

So the macro is part of it, and we're looking closely at these key market segments and the indicators there. And I think it really says Q1 looks like Q4 and there are some areas of additional slowing. And then we kind of look at the total macro for the rest of the year as we shape up our outlook.

所以宏觀是其中的一部分，我們正在密切關注這些關鍵細分市場和那裡的指標。而且我認為它確實表明 Q1 看起來像 Q4，並且有一些額外放緩的領域。然後，在我們塑造我們的前景時，我們會看看今年餘下時間的總體宏觀經濟。

Got you. And then the question about pricing. Just historically, given -- and I know the way you report pricing is not necessarily how we think about pricing internally. I completely appreciate that.

明白了然後是關於定價的問題。從歷史上看，鑑於 - 我知道你報告定價的方式不一定是我們在內部考慮定價的方式。我非常感激。

But has anything changed in the market structure in terms of your ability to drive the pricing? I just would have thought for 3M, reported pricing would have been more of a tailwind into '23. But it is what it is, but are there any structural changes that you're seeing and that you're trying to address?

但就您推動定價的能力而言，市場結構是否發生了任何變化？我只是想到 3M，報告的定價更像是 23 年的順風。但它就是這樣，但是您是否看到了任何結構性變化並且正在嘗試解決？

Andy, there really is 2 parts to our pricing actions in the near term. One of them is what Monish talked about, we are always really looking closely at our price value in the marketplace. Our innovation delivers value to our customers.

安迪，我們近期的定價行動確實有兩個部分。其中之一就是 Monish 所說的，我們一直在密切關注我們在市場上的價格價值。我們的創新為我們的客戶帶來價值。

We manage our pricing in the -- take advantage of that value and really make sure that we are getting that value through our broader market pricing. The last couple of years has brought in the inflation dynamic, and that's really been the driver. We are taking pricing actions to adjust for the input cost.

我們管理我們的定價 - 利用該價值並真正確保我們通過更廣泛的市場定價獲得該價值。過去幾年帶來了通貨膨脹動力，這確實是驅動因素。我們正在採取定價行動來調整投入成本。

And so you've got a mix of our innovation as well as the inflation dynamic. And so as you look into 2023, you're -- we're confident we'll continue to position ourselves in strong price value based on our innovation. We are going to be managing inflation along with everyone else. How do we see that progressing, and what will we do with our prices, adjusting those if we see additional inflation and managing those as the -- I would say the elasticity in the market around inflation plays itself out.

因此，您混合了我們的創新和通貨膨脹動態。因此，當您展望 2023 年時，您是——我們相信我們將繼續根據我們的創新將自己定位在強大的價格價值中。我們將與其他所有人一起管理通貨膨脹。我們如何看待這種進展，我們將如何處理我們的價格，如果我們看到額外的通貨膨脹並管理這些價格，我會說圍繞通貨膨脹的市場彈性正在發揮作用。

Our next question comes from Stephen Tusa with JPMorgan Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通證券公司的 Stephen Tusa。

What are you guys seeing on the inventory side of the -- of your more industrial businesses? I think you talked a bit about auto, but maybe just on the general industrial side, customer inventory behavior?

你們在更多工業企業的庫存方面看到了什麼？我想你談到了汽車，但也許只是在一般工業方面，客戶庫存行為？

Yes. Steve, I touched on a little bit of that. I would say as we began Q4, overall inventory looked to be in pretty good shape. And that was with the notable exception of Consumer. Everyone was working to reduce the inventory, and we saw a lot of destocking efforts in Consumer.

是的。史蒂夫，我談到了一點點。我想說的是，當我們開始第四季度時，整體庫存看起來狀況良好。消費者是一個明顯的例外。每個人都在努力減少庫存，我們在消費者中看到了很多去庫存的努力。

As I said, we're starting to see some destocking in industrial. I would say, Asia and China, where we are seeing weaknesses in consumer electronics driving some of that. And as I mentioned earlier, some specialty markets like construction and a few other areas like even packaging, we're seeing some reduction of inventory as we start the new year.

正如我所說，我們開始看到工業領域出現一些去庫存。我會說，亞洲和中國，我們看到消費電子產品的弱點推動了其中的一些。正如我之前提到的，在建築等一些專業市場和包裝等其他一些領域，我們看到新年伊始庫存有所減少。

When you look at our transportation and electronics business the consumer electronics OEMs are reducing inventories. With that outlook for their demand, they're reacting to it. Automotive OEM inventory still remains low. It's improving, but it remains low as they're recovering from some of the supply chain disruptions.

當您查看我們的運輸和電子業務時，消費電子原始設備製造商正在減少庫存。鑑於他們的需求前景，他們正在對此做出反應。汽車 OEM 庫存仍然很低。它正在改善，但由於他們正在從一些供應鏈中斷中恢復，所以它仍然很低。

Health Care, overall, looks pretty stable. We see oral care channel reacting to some of the consumer discretionary spending and slowing there in oral care that we saw really in the second half, and then it comes back. The biggest move is in the consumer where retailers are still aggressively reducing inventory. So some dynamics reflecting some of the changes in demand in the end markets.

總體而言，醫療保健看起來相當穩定。我們看到口腔護理渠道對一些消費者可自由支配的支出做出反應，並在下半年真正看到的口腔護理領域放緩，然後它又回來了。最大的變化是在消費者領域，零售商仍在積極削減庫存。因此，一些動態反映了終端市場需求的一些變化。

Okay. And then you mentioned January was starting slow. I mean, can you give us a little bit of context? Is that -- is January or January -- is January organic kind of like below the low end for the -- of the annual range? Just roughly, just some color on kind of how slow January started for you guys?

好的。然後你提到一月份開始緩慢。我的意思是，你能給我們介紹一下背景嗎？那是 - 是一月還是一月 - 一月有機有點像低於年度範圍的低端？粗略地說，只是一些關於你們 1 月開始有多慢的顏色？

Yes, Steve. So back to January, yes, it is lower than the overall range. And partly, that's also driven by the toughest comps that we're going to have going into 1Q. As I mentioned, 7.2% to 7.6% -- $7.2 billion to $7.6 billion is the revenue range. It will be down 10% to 15% versus last year's adjusted. And you have to take revenue and adjusted for the exit of PFAS manufacturing, which would be around $8.5 billion. But embedded in that is 3% to 4% from foreign currency headwinds. So it's a Q4 carryover impact.

是的，史蒂夫。所以回到一月份，是的，它低於整體範圍。在某種程度上，這也是由我們將要進入 1Q 的最艱難的組合所推動的。正如我提到的，7.2% 到 7.6%——72 億美元到 76 億美元是收入範圍。與去年的調整後相比，它將下降 10% 至 15%。而且你必須計算收入並針對 PFAS 製造業的退出進行調整，這將約為 85 億美元。但其中嵌入了 3% 至 4% 的外匯逆風。所以這是第四季度的結轉影響。

You've got 1% from divestitures, which is based on the closure of the Food Safety and some of the other transactions we did in 3Q. And then you've got a very large headwind from DR and Russia. If you recall last year, we had a very strong 1Q with the Omicron variant. Plus at that time, we had not announced the exit of Russia until mid-March. So that's another 300 to 400 basis points of pressure because you've got a comp. And therefore, overall, it's LSD to MSD is what we think right now is organic sales growth for 1Q. And what you'll find is as the year goes on, these comps start getting easier and that will start showing the growth on a year-over-year basis. Hopefully that answer your question.

你有 1% 來自剝離，這是基於食品安全的關閉和我們在第三季度進行的其他一些交易。然後你會遇到來自 DR 和俄羅斯的巨大阻力。如果您還記得去年，我們的 Omicron 變體在第一季度表現非常強勁。加上那個時候，我們直到三月中旬才宣布退出俄羅斯。所以這是另外 300 到 400 個基點的壓力，因為你有一個補償。因此，總的來說，LSD 到 MSD 是我們現在認為第一季度的有機銷售增長。你會發現，隨著時間的推移，這些組合開始變得更容易，並且將開始顯示同比增長。希望這能回答你的問題。

Yes. You weren't down double digit in January. Are you? Double digit?

是的。你在一月份沒有下降兩位數。你是？兩位數？

As of right now, we are somewhere in that range of where I told you.

截至目前，我們處於我告訴過你的那個範圍內的某個地方。

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

I know we've talked a lot about the organic growth guidance for the year. I guess I'm just curious, when you think about the consumer specifically, it seems like you're embedding improvement as the year goes along. Is that just a function of inventories getting better? How much of that is China reopening? I just want to get an understanding of that business specifically.

我知道我們已經就今年的有機增長指南談了很多。我想我只是好奇，當你具體考慮消費者時，似乎隨著時間的推移你正在嵌入改進。這只是庫存改善的結果嗎？中國重新開放了多少？我只是想具體了解一下該業務。

Yes. So on Consumer -- so you're right, Joe, I'll start with the summary, which is we are expecting that as things stabilize and as customers slow down their destocking, you will start seeing the comps get better in the year. The fourth quarter was extremely hard.

是的。所以關於消費者——所以你是對的，喬，我將從總結開始，這是我們期望隨著事情的穩定和客戶放慢他們的去庫存，你將開始看到 comps 在今年變得更好。第四節異常艱難。

And as Mike said, we saw an acceleration of a trend in December. We continue to see that in January, and that's why the first quarter starts pretty soft. But our hope is that as things stabilize, as destocking gets better as consumer confidence builds into the year, we'll start seeing the consumer business starting to get better.

正如邁克所說，我們在 12 月看到了趨勢的加速。我們在 1 月份繼續看到這種情況，這就是為什麼第一季度開始時相當疲軟。但我們希望，隨著情況趨於穩定，隨著今年消費者信心的增強，去庫存變得更好，我們將開始看到消費者業務開始好轉。

Got it. That's helpful, Monish. And maybe my follow-up question is a little bit of a longer-term question on the electronics business. So specifically, I think in your comments, Monish, you mentioned that this shift into OLED, I know there was an announcement about Apple making their own custom displays starting in 2024. Just trying to understand like how that will potentially impact your business beyond this year? And then is it already expected to impact your business in 2023?

知道了。這很有幫助，莫尼什。也許我的後續問題是關於電子業務的一個長期問題。所以具體來說，我認為在你的評論中，莫尼什，你提到了向 OLED 的轉變，我知道有一個關於蘋果公司從 2024 年開始製造他們自己的定制顯示器的公告。只是想了解這將如何潛在地影響你的業務。年？那麼它是否已經預計會在 2023 年影響您的業務？

What -- I would answer, and then I'll ask Mike to join in. The way I look at this, Joe, is there are a couple of things. The company has always -- has been looking at the LCD-OLED transition for a period of time. And that transition has been happening for a few years, and the team has continued to deal with that as it goes on.

什麼--我會回答，然後我會請邁克加入。喬，我看待這個的方式是有幾件事。一段時間以來，該公司一直在關注 LCD-OLED 的過渡。這種轉變已經發生了幾年，並且團隊一直在繼續處理它。

What the team is working through is as new devices are coming on, what does that mean from a OLED to LCD ratio to mix. It definitely did have an impact for us in 2022. And then we are seeing what trends we are seeing -- as of right now, the trends we saw, we have predicted into 2023.

該團隊正在研究的是隨著新設備的出現，從 OLED 到 LCD 的比例到混合意味著什麼。它確實在 2022 年對我們產生了影響。然後我們看到了我們看到的趨勢——截至目前，我們看到的趨勢，我們已經預測到 2023 年。

But with that said, the one thing about the electronics segment, and especially the display teams, is they always have a lot of innovation that is out there that helps offset some of these headwinds that come across. That business keeps reinventing itself as time has gone.

但話雖如此，電子領域，尤其是顯示器團隊的一件事是，他們總是有很多創新可以幫助抵消遇到的一些不利因素。隨著時間的流逝，該業務不斷重塑自我。

For example, Ashish and his team have launched products that are used in AR and VR technology, which also hopefully is a growth market in the future, and that's what -- that business is very good at looking at these trends, working these headwinds and then finding innovation to offset that as time goes. But right now, we have embedded what we think is the trend in LCD-OLED shift into our 2023 guide.

例如，Ashish 和他的團隊已經推出了用於 AR 和 VR 技術的產品，這也有望在未來成為一個增長市場，這就是——該企業非常善於觀察這些趨勢，應對這些逆風和然後尋找創新來抵消隨著時間的推移。但現在，我們已將我們認為的 LCD-OLED 轉變趨勢嵌入到我們的 2023 年指南中。

Yes. And Joe, I would add we've been managing that transition and that trend for some time. It's -- and it's part of our innovation that we're doing with our customers, too, innovating on both sides of that, the OLED displays. And as Monish said, the other higher growth segments in electronics, historically, our electronics business has been overweight to consumer electronics.

是的。喬，我想補充一點，我們一直在管理這種轉變和這種趨勢。它是 - 這也是我們與客戶一起進行的創新的一部分，在 OLED 顯示器的兩面進行創新。正如 Monish 所說，從歷史上看，我們的電子業務在電子產品中的其他增長較高的部分一直超重於消費電子產品。

And as we've talked about over the last few years, our strategy is continue to innovate there, and we're working with our customers multiple generations ahead, whether it's OLED displays or other applications, we're really working with them to innovate and drive value and opportunity for 3M in that consumer electronics.

正如我們在過去幾年中談到的那樣，我們的戰略是繼續在那裡進行創新，我們正在與我們的客戶合作好幾代，無論是 OLED 顯示器還是其他應用，我們都在真正地與他們合作進行創新並為 3M 在該消費電子產品領域帶來價值和機遇。

At the same time, we recognize the big growth drivers are some of these other higher-growth segments. And Monish talked about AR/VR now emerging as one of those opportunities. Automotive electrification, of course, is the largest of those right now.

與此同時，我們認識到增長的主要驅動力是其他一些高增長領域。 Monish 談到 AR/VR 現在正在成為這些機會之一。當然，汽車電氣化是目前最大的。

There's other areas like factory automation, and even into electronic into semiconductor manufacturing kinds of processes. So we are innovating in those spaces and at the same time, looking ahead and managing through the next display technologies and the next mobile device technologies and consumer electronics.

還有其他領域，如工廠自動化，甚至進入電子到半導體製造等各種過程。因此，我們在這些領域進行創新，同時展望未來並管理下一代顯示技術、下一代移動設備技術和消費電子產品。

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Maybe just wanted to start on the operating margins. So sort of backing into what you've talked about, are we right in assuming that the guide embeds sort of 19% operating margin for the year and sort of mid-teens in Q1?

也許只是想從營業利潤率開始。所以有點回到你所說的，我們是否正確地假設該指南嵌入了今年 19% 的營業利潤率和第一季度的十幾歲左右？

And then on that Q1 aspect, very heavy decremental margins sequentially even without the restructuring charge. Is there a lot of sort of under production going on at 3M to clear out inventory, for example? Just trying to understand why that Q1 margin is so light. I think it's like a 50% decremental or something excluding the restructuring.

然後在第一季度方面，即使沒有重組費用，利潤率也會連續下降。例如，3M 是否存在大量生產不足以清理庫存？只是想了解為什麼 Q1 利潤率如此之低。我認為這就像 50% 的遞減或不包括重組的東西。

Yes. So I've always said, Julian, first is volume gives us the best leverage. And what you have seen in Q4 continues into Q1. As we have said in Q4, we took some aggressive actions on making sure we rightsized our manufacturing facilities to help control inventory. Our plan is we will continue to aggressively manage production as a way to -- manage production as a way to manage cash at the same time so we're not building unnecessary inventory. So that's number one.

是的。所以我一直說，朱利安，首先是數量給了我們最好的槓桿作用。您在第 4 季度看到的情況會延續到第 1 季度。正如我們在第四季度所說，我們採取了一些積極的行動來確保我們對製造設施進行合理調整以幫助控制庫存。我們的計劃是，我們將繼續積極管理生產，以此來管理生產，同時管理現金，這樣我們就不會建立不必要的庫存。所以這是第一。

I think number 2 is, as I mentioned, there's continued pressure on a year-over-year basis on foreign currency between 3% to 4%. If you look at it versus fourth quarter exit rate, it's pretty much, I would say, flat to what fourth quarter exit rate was. And then the other item, you mentioned the restructuring, but we also have other normal 1Q items that we have from an accounting basis that we take which is normal in every quarter.

我認為第 2 點是，正如我提到的，外幣同比增長持續存在 3% 至 4% 的壓力。如果你看一下它與第四季度退出率的對比，我想說的是，它幾乎與第四季度的退出率持平。然後是另一個項目，你提到了重組，但我們也有其他正常的 1Q 項目，我們從會計基礎上得到的，每個季度都是正常的。

And that's why the start to 1Q is slower. But as you accelerate or move through the year, volume and the supply chain healing are the 2 factors that will continue to drive us to get these margins better. And if we're looking at it on a year-over-year basis, it's all driven by the comps that we had last year, which impact us heavily. So it's lower volume in Q1, that's a big driver and volume will be the big determinant on what we think Q1 is going to be.

這就是為什麼 1Q 開始較慢的原因。但隨著你在這一年中加速或前進，銷量和供應鏈修復是將繼續推動我們提高這些利潤率的兩個因素。而且，如果我們逐年查看它，那都是由我們去年的補償驅動的，這對我們產生了重大影響。因此，第一季度的銷量較低，這是一個很大的驅動因素，而銷量將是我們認為第一季度的重要決定因素。

And Monish, is that roughly right on that sort of mid-teens operating margin Q1 and 19-ish for the year in your guide?

莫尼什，在你的指南中，這與當年的 15 歲左右營業利潤率 Q1 和 19 歲左右大致相符嗎？

Yes. Yes, it's -- we're actually close there. It's close enough, Julian.

是的。是的，它是 - 我們實際上很接近那裡。已經足夠接近了，朱利安。

And then one quick follow-up on that for Mike. Mike, you've announced a restructuring program today. I think it's the first kind of formal discrete one since fourth quarter of 2020. And you had the business transformation savings program prior to that. Just wondered sort of when you think about the scope of the current restructuring plan, what kind of savings run rate we should expect annually when do you get to that? And how do you assess the kind of scope of this being enough to get margins back on track as you had those prior restructuring programs, but margins have sort of stayed under pressure?

然後是邁克的快速跟進。邁克，你今天宣布了一項重組計劃。我認為這是自 2020 年第四季度以來的第一種正式的離散方案。在此之前你有業務轉型儲蓄計劃。只是想知道當您考慮當前重組計劃的範圍時，我們每年應該期望什麼樣的儲蓄運行率？你如何評估這種範圍足以讓利潤率回到正軌，就像你之前的那些重組計劃一樣，但利潤率一直處於壓力之下？

Yes, Julian, the way we're thinking about it. And like I said, this is certainly taking on what we see in the markets and in our performance and the supply chain dynamics that we're facing, all of that's part of what we're focused on as we look at these actions as we go through the year, adding to what we've already announced.

是的，朱利安，我們正在考慮的方式。就像我說的，這肯定是我們在市場上看到的，我們的表現以及我們所面臨的供應鏈動態，所有這些都是我們關注這些行動的一部分，因為我們經歷這一年，增加我們已經宣布的內容。

And then we are thinking and getting ready for the spin of Health Care. We're taking a deeper look, as I said, at everything we do. There's opportunities to streamline what we do as a company in the face of those end market dynamics and then in our operations. And we're learning from the changes that we've made to this point.

然後我們正在考慮並為醫療保健的發展做好準備。正如我所說，我們正在更深入地審視我們所做的一切。面對這些終端市場動態，然後在我們的運營中，有機會簡化我們作為一家公司所做的事情。我們正在從我們對這一點所做的改變中學習。

So we'll continue to work on that. In terms of giving you a view of the impact of that, that's something we'll come back with as we make decisions and announce those actions, those additional actions as we go through there.

所以我們會繼續努力。就讓您了解其影響而言，這是我們在做出決定並宣布這些行動時會回來的東西，以及我們在那裡經歷的那些額外行動。

Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。

Thank you for all the '23 planning assumption details and also for providing first quarter guidance, I know that's not a typical practice but given all the moving parts, we appreciate that. So my question relates -- it's come up a couple of times on the Health Care spin.

感謝您提供所有 23 年計劃假設的詳細信息，並提供第一季度的指導，我知道這不是典型的做法，但考慮到所有移動部分，我們對此表示讚賞。所以我的問題與 - 它在醫療保健旋轉中出現了幾次。

Can you remind us the timing that you're expecting? There was some noise about the potential challenges in the courts. Where does that stand? And on the separation costs, how much is this impacting '23? Or is that all excluded and stranded costs? How quickly would you be able to address those?

你能提醒我們你期待的時間嗎？關於法庭上的潛在挑戰，有一些聲音。那站在哪裡？在分離成本方面，這對 23 年的影響有多大？還是所有被排除在外和擱淺的成本？你能多快解決這些問題？

Yes, Deane, maybe I'll talk a little bit about just the spin now. Monish can talk about the separation cost model. We have a dedicated team working and building the execution plans. We're making very good progress. We talked about our expectation that we would be completing the spin by the end of '23, early '24 and that's kind of the focus for the teams as they work to execute this.

是的，迪恩，也許我現在會談談旋轉。莫尼什可以談談分離成本模型。我們有一個專門的團隊來工作和製定執行計劃。我們正在取得非常好的進展。我們談到了我們的期望，即我們將在 23 年底、24 年初完成旋轉，這是團隊在執行此任務時的重點。

You commented on there had been some -- actually, there was a suit in the marketplace around the spin of Health Care and again, would we be able to complete that spin. And that was something that was dismissed. And so there's nothing from that dynamic that's impacting us. It's really about our teams working to execute the spin. And as I said, they're making very good progress. We're confident that we're moving in the right direction and moving ahead at pace.

你評論說有一些 - 實際上，圍繞醫療保健的旋轉市場上有一套西裝，我們是否能夠完成該旋轉。那是被駁回的事情。因此，這種動態對我們沒有任何影響。這實際上是關於我們的團隊努力執行旋轉。正如我所說，他們正在取得非常好的進展。我們有信心，我們正朝著正確的方向前進，並且正在穩步前進。

So as regards to the guide, Deane, as we had disclosed when we announced the spin of Health Care, we currently do not -- we are thinking of counting it as a special item, so that will be excluded from our ongoing operations. We are unable to predict how much of that will show up in 2023, so we haven't put that in our guide.

因此，關於指南，迪恩，正如我們在宣布分拆醫療保健時所披露的那樣，我們目前沒有——我們正在考慮將其視為一個特殊項目，因此它將被排除在我們正在進行的運營之外。我們無法預測其中有多少會在 2023 年出現，因此我們沒有將其放入我們的指南中。

But when we had announced the transaction, we had given you a framework that our transaction cost of spin-off will be somewhere in the range of $1 billion to $1.5 billion, which is a mixture of CapEx and OpEx. The teams are continuing to work that as they go through right now. We've now been at this for the last 4 to 5 months.

但是當我們宣布交易時，我們給了你一個框架，我們的分拆交易成本將在 10 億美元到 15 億美元之間，這是資本支出和運營支出的混合體。團隊正在繼續努力，因為他們現在正在經歷。在過去的 4 到 5 個月裡，我們一直在做這件事。

So as we get better estimates around that, we will definitely keep you posted. And then as regards stranded cost, as Mike mentioned, and we had also mentioned it in the last quarter, this is an opportunity for us to look at everything that we do as we are getting ready for the spin.

因此，當我們對此做出更好的估計時，我們一定會及時通知您。然後關於擱淺成本，正如 Mike 提到的，我們在上個季度也提到過，這是一個機會，讓我們可以審視我們在為旋轉做準備時所做的一切。

And our goal is to reduce stranded costs as much as we can, and we'll keep working it as we go through it. And we'll definitely let you all know as we figure this out. But the teams are actively working. The teams are staffed and they're doing an amazing job keeping the program on track.

我們的目標是盡可能減少擱淺成本，我們將在完成過程中繼續努力。當我們解決這個問題時，我們一定會讓大家知道。但是團隊正在積極工作。這些團隊配備了人員，他們在保持項目正常進行方面做得非常出色。

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

We've covered a lot of ground here. But I want to go back to 1Q '23, perhaps Monish. We calculate a 15% margin, which is kind of similar to Julian's mid-teens. I don't think we've ever seen a margin that low. I think the GFC, we saw 17% and change margin. So just wondering why margins will be so low. And I understand supply chain is a factor here, but why 15%? What's going on?

我們在這裡涵蓋了很多內容。但我想回到 23 年第一季度，也許是莫尼什。我們計算出 15% 的利潤率，這有點類似於 Julian 十幾歲的時候。我認為我們從未見過如此低的利潤率。我認為全球金融危機，我們看到了 17% 並改變了利潤率。所以只是想知道為什麼利潤率會這麼低。我知道供應鍊是一個因素，但為什麼是 15%？這是怎麼回事？

And as part of this sort of question, the kind of the coverage of the full year plan even at the low end of the range is still really, really low. So I think it's about 17% to 19% coverage, making a very, very back-end loaded year. So I know you said volume gets better, but what gives you confidence and what can give investors confidence is enough capture in the back half of the year?

作為這類問題的一部分，即使在範圍的低端，全年計劃的覆蓋範圍仍然非常非常低。所以我認為它的覆蓋率大約為 17% 到 19%，這是非常非常後端負載的一年。所以我知道你說成交量變好，但讓你有信心和給投資者信心的是下半年的足夠捕獲量？

Yes. So I think 2 different questions and both great ones. So I'll try to answer the first one, similar to what I told Julian. Volume gives us the best leverage. And when you just look at it even sequentially and you adjust for FX, which helped us versus a guide that we had given, volumes are going to be flat.

是的。所以我認為有 2 個不同的問題，而且都是很好的問題。所以我會嘗試回答第一個問題，類似於我告訴 Julian 的。成交量給了我們最好的槓桿作用。當你甚至按順序查看它並針對 FX 進行調整時，這有助於我們與我們提供的指南相比，交易量將持平。

We have started very low in the month of January, and that puts tremendous pressure on our fixed cost, number one. Number two, we have a restructuring charge. And then number three, our tax rate is 19%. And then, of course, we have some another normal 1Q items from an accounting basis that we take.

我們在 1 月份的開端非常低，這給我們的固定成本（第一）帶來了巨大壓力。第二，我們有重組費用。第三，我們的稅率是 19%。然後，當然，我們從會計基礎上獲得了一些其他正常的 1Q 項目。

So when you put all that together, I would say, Nigel, it comes down to volume. Volume is down 10% to 15% on a year-over-year basis. And so that's number one. This is the toughest comp and you have DR and the exit of Russia, both of which we have disclosed in the past. When you apply them at company margin, which is at 46%, that puts pressure also on a year-over-year basis.

所以當你把所有這些放在一起時，我會說，奈傑爾，它歸結為體積。銷量同比下降 10% 至 15%。所以這是第一。這是最艱難的比賽，你有 DR 和俄羅斯的退出，我們過去已經披露過這兩者。當你以公司利潤率（46%）應用它們時，也會在同比基礎上施加壓力。

When I go through the remaining quarter year and as you correctly asked the question, what happens on margins, as you start thinking about -- we exit some of these comps that are difficult, 1Q being the toughest, volumes will start -- our comps will start getting better.

當我經歷剩餘的季度時，當你正確地問了這個問題時，當你開始思考時，利潤率會發生什麼——我們退出了一些困難的競爭，第一季度是最艱難的，銷量將開始——我們的競爭會開始好轉。

The supply chain efficiencies, the actions that we have announced also in 1Q and some of the actions we took in 4Q will all start showing up in the remaining of the year. Again, as I mentioned, some of these items, including cost out from raw materials take a little bit of time as we work through our higher cost of inventory through the system.

供應鏈效率、我們在第一季度宣布的行動以及我們在第四季度採取的一些行動都將在今年剩餘時間開始顯現。同樣，正如我提到的，其中一些項目，包括原材料成本，需要一點時間，因為我們通過系統處理更高的庫存成本。

If you also look at external data, and that's what we can look at because none of us are able to predict what we can in the future, external data says the second half gets better. It gets better in China, it gets better globally. And that's another reason why we are hopeful that as volumes come back in the second half, we should see our own margins go up and our own revenue go up.

如果您還查看外部數據，這就是我們可以查看的內容，因為我們都無法預測未來的情況，外部數據表明下半年會變得更好。它在中國變得更好，它在全球變得更好。這也是我們希望隨著下半年銷量回升的另一個原因，我們應該看到我們自己的利潤率上升，我們自己的收入上升。

But with that said, at the end of the day, we control -- we don't control the markets, but what we definitely control is our own actions. And so continuing to drive supply chain efficiency, continuing to make sure that we are being as nimble and agile as we can.

但話說回來，歸根結底，我們控制著——我們不控制市場，但我們絕對控制的是我們自己的行為。因此，繼續推動供應鏈效率，繼續確保我們盡可能靈活和敏捷。

Using Mike's words, we are looking at everything. We're being very careful and discretionary in hiring. And 2023 is an important year [for you]. It's a year that we plan to execute on a lot of our strategies over the last few years, including the spin of our Health Care and improving our supply chain operations.

用邁克的話來說，我們正在審視一切。我們在招聘時非常謹慎和謹慎。 2023 年 [對您來說] 是重要的一年。這一年我們計劃在過去幾年中執行我們的許多戰略，包括我們的醫療保健和改善我們的供應鏈運營。

I just want to end with your question, Nigel. we are not satisfied with where we are. We're going to continue to look at this. We're going to continue to be nimble and agile as the volume plays itself out. And our goal is to keep building from where we are right now.

奈傑爾，我只想以你的問題結束。我們對自己的現狀不滿意。我們將繼續關注這一點。隨著數量的增加，我們將繼續保持敏捷和敏捷。我們的目標是繼續從我們現在所在的地方開始建設。

Nigel, I just want to correct one thing Monish said. Our total sales for Q1 are going to be down 10% to 15%, not volume.

奈傑爾，我只想糾正莫尼什所說的一件事。我們第一季度的總銷售額將下降 10% 至 15%，而不是銷量。

I'm sorry. Yes.

對不起。是的。

Organic sales growth is forecast to be down low single digits to mid-single digits.

有機銷售增長預計將下降到中個位數的低個位數。

Okay. I was going to follow up on that. So thanks for that clarification, Bruce. And I know I've asked 2 questions there, but I do have one for Mike. You said everything's on the table in terms of your reorganization and things about new ways of doing things, 5 or 6 years ago, 3M went through a sort of pretty big centralization of supply chain and business support functions. In hindsight, has that left the organization a bit too rigid? Was that the right move? And could you unwind that civilization?

好的。我打算跟進。謝謝你的澄清，Bruce。我知道我在那裡問了 2 個問題，但我確實有一個問題要問邁克。你說，就重組和新的做事方式而言，一切都擺在桌面上，5 或 6 年前，3M 經歷了供應鍊和業務支持職能的相當大的集中化。事後看來，這是否讓組織過於僵化了？這是正確的舉動嗎？你能解開那個文明嗎？

Yes, I would say that, Nigel, that the change is that -- there's a couple of different changes that we made to the supply chain maybe that you're thinking about. One was, we did take actions on some of the structure and really looking at factories, our footprint of factories a number of years ago. And then we moved to -- when we announced the change to our business group led model, we went to a common supply chain model globally. And we made some additional steps in that in last year, really to continue to drive more flexibility, greater streamlined performance end to end in our supply chain. So we see it really more as an opportunity to build on the changes we have made and drive simplification, streamline, more productivity, reducing our costs, delivering more directly to customers.

是的，我會說，奈傑爾，變化是——我們對供應鏈做出了一些不同的變化，也許你正在考慮。一是，我們確實對一些結構採取了行動，並真正關注工廠，我們多年前的工廠足跡。然後我們轉向——當我們宣布改變我們的業務組主導模式時，我們在全球範圍內採用了一個通用的供應鏈模式。去年我們在這方面採取了一些額外的步驟，真正地繼續在我們的供應鏈中端到端地推動更大的靈活性、更精簡的性能。因此，我們更多地把它看作是一個機會，可以在我們所做的改變的基礎上，推動簡化、精簡、提高生產力、降低成本，更直接地為客戶提供服務。

So it's continuing to build on some of those changes. I think those actually have positioned us to be more flexible as we go ahead. And there's an expectation that supply chains will continue to heal. So we want to be able to take advantage of those tailwinds that we hope to see as we go through the year.

因此，它繼續以其中一些變化為基礎。我認為這些實際上使我們在前進的過程中更加靈活。並且預計供應鏈將繼續癒合。因此，我們希望能夠利用我們希望在這一年中看到的順風。

At the same time, we control what we control, and that is making additional changes based on what we've learned to really execute our performance in our supply chain. It's the biggest opportunity we have to improve margin and cash flow as we go through the year.

與此同時，我們控制我們所控制的，也就是根據我們所學到的進行額外的改變，以真正執行我們在供應鏈中的績效。這是我們在這一年中提高利潤率和現金流的最大機會。

And our last question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. I don't know if I missed this or not, but you mentioned that free cash flow conversion is 90% to 100% this year. Is that a long-term goal. Can you maintain that? I mean, as things kind of, I guess, will get less volatile in the out years?

這是勞倫斯的丹·里佐。我不知道我是否錯過了這一點，但你提到今年自由現金流轉換為 90% 到 100%。這是一個長期目標嗎？你能保持嗎？我的意思是，我想事情在未來幾年會變得不那麼不穩定？

Yes, it's 90% to 100% for 2023, just to be clear, that was the guide. For last year, we ended at 82%. As I've said multiple times, the opportunity for 3M's cash from a working capital comes from inventory management and EP. And to answer your question, is it sustainable? Of course, it will ultimately depend on the income that we generated depends on how supply chains behave and the capital.

是的，2023 年是 90% 到 100%，需要明確的是，那是指南。去年，我們以 82% 結束。正如我多次說過的那樣，3M 從營運資金中獲取現金的機會來自庫存管理和 EP。回答你的問題，它是可持續的嗎？當然，這最終將取決於我們產生的收入，取決於供應鏈的表現和資本。

But if you just look at the ability for us to use data and data analytics to help drive inventory and working capital clearly exists. In the fourth quarter, the teams did an amazing job to take inventories down, got it down by nearly $250 million. And as supply chains start to heal, this is clearly an opportunity for us, and we're going to keep driving that.

但是，如果您只看一下我們使用數據和數據分析來幫助推動庫存和營運資金的能力，那顯然是存在的。在第四季度，各團隊在減少庫存方面做得非常出色，減少了近 2.5 億美元。隨著供應鏈開始恢復，這對我們來說顯然是一個機會，我們將繼續推動它。

We have no further phone questions at this time.

目前我們沒有進一步的電話問題。

To wrap up, we are focused on creating value for customers and shareholders in a challenging environment. We will continue to take actions to improve our performance, control costs and drive simplification while building 3M for the future. Thank you for joining us.

總而言之，我們專注於在充滿挑戰的環境中為客戶和股東創造價值。在構建 3M 未來的同時，我們將繼續採取行動來提高我們的績效、控製成本和推動簡化。感謝您加入我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，我們請求您斷開您的線路。