3M (MMM) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 3M third quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Tuesday, October 25, 2022.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 3M 第三季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製，時間為 2022 年 10 月 25 日，星期二。

I would now like to turn the call over to Bruce Jermeland, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at 3M.

我現在想將電話轉給 3M 投資者關係高級副總裁 Bruce Jermeland。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter earnings conference call. With me today are Mike Roman, 3M's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Monish Patolawala, our Chief Financial and Transformation Officer. Mike and Monish will make some formal comments, and then we'll take your questions.

謝謝大家，大家早上好，歡迎參加我們的第三季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是 3M 的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Roman；和我們的首席財務和轉型官 Monish Patolawala。 Mike 和 Monish 將發表一些正式的評論，然後我們會回答您的問題。

Please note that today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call are posted on the home page of our Investor Relations website at 3m.com.

請注意，本次電話會議隨附的今天的收益發布和幻燈片演示已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站 3m.com 的主頁上。

Please turn to Slide 2. Please take a moment to read the forward-looking statement. During today's conference call, we'll be making certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M's future performance and financial results. These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-K lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.

請轉到幻燈片 2。請花點時間閱讀前瞻性聲明。在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出某些預測性陳述，以反映我們目前對 3M 未來業績和財務業績的看法。這些陳述基於對受風險和不確定性影響的未來事件的某些假設和預期。我們最近的 10-K 表格的第 1A 項列出了一些可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的最重要的風險因素。

Please note throughout today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to these slides and in the attachments to today's press release.

請注意，在今天的演講中，我們將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。可以在這些幻燈片的附錄和今天新聞稿的附件中找到對非 GAAP 措施的調節。

With that, please turn to Slide 3, and I'll now hand the call off to Mike. Mike?

有了這個，請轉到幻燈片 3，我現在將電話交給邁克。麥克風？

Thank you, Bruce. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We continue to execute our strategies to deliver for our customers, position 3M for long-term growth and manage legal matters. Our team posted organic growth of 2% or more than 3%, excluding the impact of the decline in disposable respirator sales, along with adjusted margins of 21.5%, adjusted EPS of $2.69 and $1.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow.

謝謝你，布魯斯。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。我們繼續執行我們的戰略，為我們的客戶提供服務，為 3M 定位以實現長期增長並管理法律事務。我們的團隊公佈了 2% 或超過 3% 的有機增長，不包括一次性呼吸器銷售下降的影響，調整後的利潤率為 21.5%，調整後的每股收益為 2.69 美元，調整後的自由現金流為 14 億美元。

While the global economic outlook is softening, our businesses continue to innovate for customers and capitalize on opportunities. Transportation and Electronics posted 3% organic growth with Safety and Industrial, Consumer and Health Care each growing 2%. All business groups delivered margins above 21% with notable margin expansion in Safety and Industrial and Transportation and Electronics.

在全球經濟前景疲軟的同時，我們的業務繼續為客戶創新並抓住機遇。運輸和電子產品實現 3% 的有機增長，安全和工業、消費者和醫療保健各增長 2%。所有業務集團的利潤率均超過 21%，安全與工業、運輸和電子領域的利潤率顯著增長。

Looking geographically, organic growth was led by APAC up 3%, with China up 8%, benefiting from backlog recovery following the COVID-related lockdowns in the second quarter. The Americas were up 2% with the U.S. flat against 6% growth in last year's Q3. Growth in EMEA was flat as we navigate the ongoing geopolitical unrest across Europe.

從地域上看，有機增長以亞太地區增長 3% 為首，中國增長 8%，這得益於第二季度與 COVID 相關的封鎖後的積壓恢復。美洲增長 2%，美國持平，而去年第三季度增長 6%。隨著我們在整個歐洲持續的地緣政治動盪中航行，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的增長持平。

At the same time, we drove operational improvements to address inflation and supply chain challenges. We are delivering strong pricing, managing costs and reducing inventory backlogs while maintaining a relentless focus on serving customers. For example, we recently invested in a new shipping consolidation center in South Carolina, which is reducing average cycle times for exports to Asia by 1 to 2 weeks. Some of our actions have impacted near-term margins, but we will continue to do what is necessary to take care of customers.

與此同時，我們推動運營改進以應對通貨膨脹和供應鏈挑戰。我們提供強大的定價、管理成本和減少庫存積壓，同時堅持不懈地專注於為客戶服務。例如，我們最近在南卡羅來納州投資了一個新的航運整合中心，它將出口到亞洲的平均週期時間縮短了 1 到 2 週。我們的一些行動影響了近期利潤率，但我們將繼續採取必要措施來照顧客戶。

Going forward, we see a significant opportunity to reduce cost of goods sold and working capital as global supply chains improve, which includes leveraging data and data analytics to drive productivity in our plants.

展望未來，隨著全球供應鏈的改善，我們看到了降低銷售成本和營運資金的重要機會，其中包括利用數據和數據分析來提高我們工廠的生產力。

With respect to guidance, today, we are updating full year expectations to reflect our results through 9 months, along with the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar and ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. For organic growth, we are lowering the high end of our range to 1.5% to 2% against the prior range of 1.5% to 3.5%.

關於指引，今天，我們正在更新全年預期，以反映我們過去 9 個月的業績，以及美元的持續走強以及持續的宏觀經濟和地緣政治不確定性。對於有機增長，我們將範圍的高端降低至 1.5% 至 2%，而之前的範圍為 1.5% 至 3.5%。

We anticipate adjusted EPS of $10.10 to $10.35 against the previous expectation of $10.30 to $10.80. We are also updating our range for adjusted free cash flow conversion to 85% to 95% from 90% to 100% previously.

我們預計調整後的每股收益為 10.10 美元至 10.35 美元，而之前的預期為 10.30 美元至 10.80 美元。我們還將調整後的自由現金流轉換範圍從之前的 90% 到 100% 更新為 85% 到 95%。

To strengthen 3M for the future, we continue to invest in growth, productivity and sustainability. For example, while we see near-term softness in consumer electronics, we are investing in electronic segments that are seeing strong growth, including new solutions for automotive displays and virtual and augmented reality. We are rolling out new thermal management solutions to improve electric car batteries, one element of our work to advance more sustainable vehicle designs. And earlier this month, we introduced a new Post-it app for Microsoft Teams that helps people collaborate in hybrid environments as we execute our digital strategy and reimagine our products.

為了加強 3M 的未來發展，我們將繼續投資於增長、生產力和可持續性。例如，雖然我們看到消費電子產品近期疲軟，但我們正在投資增長強勁的電子領域，包括汽車顯示器以及虛擬和增強現實的新解決方案。我們正在推出新的熱管理解決方案來改進電動汽車電池，這是我們推進更具可持續性的汽車設計的工作之一。本月早些時候，我們為 Microsoft Teams 推出了一款新的便利貼應用程序，可幫助人們在我們執行數字戰略和重新構想產品時在混合環境中進行協作。

We're also innovating to make our operation safer, more efficient and more productive. At our plant in Alexandria, Minnesota, we are leveraging 3M disruptive technologies to transform our abrasive belt converting process through end-to-end automation, improving labor productivity by 32%, eliminating 9 high-risk tasks and saving nearly $1 million annually. Many more similar projects are on the way across our global operations, driving safety and savings.

我們還在進行創新，以使我們的運營更安全、更高效、更高效。在我們位於明尼蘇達州亞歷山大市的工廠，我們正在利用 3M 的顛覆性技術通過端到端自動化改造我們的砂帶加工流程，將勞動生產率提高 32%，消除 9 項高風險任務，每年節省近 100 萬美元。更多類似的項目正在我們的全球運營中進行，以提高安全性和節約性。

In sustainability, we have installed a new state-of-the-art water filtration system in Cordova, Illinois. We now have all 3 of our largest water-using sites in the U.S. utilizing industry-leading filtration technologies, following through on the $1 billion sustainability commitment we made last year.

在可持續性方面，我們在伊利諾伊州的科爾多瓦安裝了一個新的最先進的水過濾系統。我們現在在美國擁有全部 3 個最大的用水點，它們都採用了行業領先的過濾技術，兌現了我們去年做出的 10 億美元的可持續發展承諾。

At the same time, we are positioning 3M for long-term success by actively managing our portfolio, complementing all we do to strengthen our enterprise organically. Last month, we completed the divestiture of our Food Safety business, which unlocks value and further strengthens our balance sheet. We received approximately $1 billion and reduced our outstanding share count by 16 million.

同時，我們通過積極管理我們的產品組合，為 3M 的長期成功定位，補充我們為有機地加強我們的企業所做的一切。上個月，我們完成了對食品安全業務的剝離，這釋放了價值並進一步加強了我們的資產負債表。我們收到了大約 10 億美元，並將我們的流通股數量減少了 1600 萬股。

In addition, earlier this month, we divested 2 of our skin care brands in Southeast Asia, enabling us to prioritize other parts of our consumer portfolio. We have also established a dedicated team to seamlessly execute our Health Care spin-off. We are confident in our plan to create 2 world-class public companies with greater focus and better able to drive growth and innovation.

此外，本月早些時候，我們剝離了我們在東南亞的 2 個護膚品牌，使我們能夠優先考慮我們消費者組合的其他部分。我們還建立了一個專門的團隊來無縫執行我們的醫療保健分拆。我們對創建兩家世界級上市公司的計劃充滿信心，這些公司更加專注並能夠更好地推動增長和創新。

Before turning the call to Monish, I would like to provide an update on litigation, which I know is top of mind. On Combat Arms, the Aearo Technologies chapter 11 proceeding is active and progressing. And we believe it is the best path to resolving claims in an equitable, efficient, prompt and permanent manner. That continues to be our goal, a resolution that is equitable and more certain for all parties.

在將電話轉給 Monish 之前，我想提供有關訴訟的最新信息，我知道這是最重要的。在戰鬥武器方面，Aearo Technologies 第 11 章的程序正在積極推進中。我們相信這是以公平、有效、迅速和永久的方式解決索賠的最佳途徑。這仍然是我們的目標，是一個對所有各方都更公平、更確定的決議。

Aearo is participating in a confidential mediation process focused on reaching a comprehensive settlement, and 3M is supporting those efforts. Aearo has also appealed the bankruptcy court's decision in August not to extend the stay of litigation to 3M, and the Seventh Circuit has agreed to hear the appeal. In the MDL, the next trial is scheduled for February of next year.

Aearo 正在參與一個專注於達成全面和解的保密調解過程，而 3M 正在支持這些努力。 Aearo 還在 8 月份對破產法院關於不將中止訴訟延長至 3M 的決定提出上訴，第七巡迴法院已同意審理上訴。在 MDL 中，下一次審判定於明年 2 月進行。

We also continue to actively manage PFAS litigation. Earlier this month, we reached a settlement with the city of Gadsden, Alabama related to carpet manufacturing. The first AFFF MDL trial is now scheduled for June of 2023.

我們還繼續積極管理 PFAS 訴訟。本月早些時候，我們與阿拉巴馬州加茲登市就地毯製造達成了和解。第一次 AFFF MDL 試驗現在定於 2023 年 6 月進行。

In summary, we continue to deliver for customers in an uncertain environment. I thank our employees for their contributions and commitment, especially as we continue to lead through significant change and position 3M for the future. We will stay focused on driving growth, improving operational execution and delivering greater value for customers and shareholders.

總之，我們在不確定的環境中繼續為客戶提供服務。我感謝我們員工的貢獻和承諾，特別是在我們繼續引領重大變革並為 3M 未來定位的情況下。我們將繼續專注於推動增長、改善運營執行並為客戶和股東創造更大的價值。

I will now turn it over to Monish for more details on the quarter. Monish?

我現在將把它交給莫尼什，以了解本季度的更多細節。莫尼什？

Thank you, Mike, and I wish you all a very good morning. Please turn to Slide 4. Overall, the 3M team delivered third quarter sales and operating margins that were very much in line with my comments at a conference in mid-September with some puts and takes as consumer and consumer electronics demand declined as the quarter progressed while industrial end markets demand remained steady.

謝謝你，邁克，祝大家早上好。請轉到幻燈片 4。總體而言，3M 團隊第三季度的銷售額和營業利潤率與我在 9 月中旬的一次會議上的評論非常一致，其中有一些看跌期權，因為隨著季度的進展，消費和消費電子產品需求下降而工業終端市場需求保持穩定。

Third quarter total sales were $8.6 billion or down 3.6% year-on-year, which included headwinds of 5.1% or $450 million from foreign currency translation and 50 basis points or $50 million from the divestiture of Food Safety, along with the deconsolidation of Aearo Technologies.

第三季度總銷售額為 86 億美元或同比下降 3.6%，其中包括來自外幣折算的 5.1% 或 4.5 億美元的逆風，以及來自食品安全剝離的 50 個基點或 5,000 萬美元，以及 Aearo 的分拆技術。

On an organic basis, third quarter sales increased 2% versus last year. This result includes an anticipated falloff in disposable respirator demand, which negatively impacted organic sales by approximately $130 million or 1.4 percentage points. Excluding this decline, Q3 organic sales growth was 3.4%.

在有機基礎上，第三季度銷售額與去年相比增長了 2%。這一結果包括一次性呼吸器需求的預期下降，這對有機銷售額產生了約 1.3 億美元或 1.4 個百分點的負面影響。剔除這一下降，第三季度有機銷售額增長為 3.4%。

On an adjusted basis, third quarter operating income was $1.9 billion with operating margins of 21.5%, which were up 40 basis points year-on-year and 50 basis points sequentially. Adjusted earnings for the quarter were $2.69 versus $2.58 last year.

經調整後，第三季度營業收入為 19 億美元，營業利潤率為 21.5%，同比增長 40 個基點，環比增長 50 個基點。本季度調整後的收益為 2.69 美元，而去年為 2.58 美元。

Turning to the components that impacted third quarter operating margins and earnings year-on-year performance. As you may recall, during our Investor Day this past February, we laid out our operating framework and operating principles that included daily management, data democratization, transparency and accountability. We continue to make progress on the consistency of application of this framework.

轉向影響第三季度營業利潤率和收益同比表現的組件。您可能還記得，在今年 2 月的投資者日期間，我們制定了運營框架和運營原則，包括日常管理、數據民主化、透明度和問責制。我們繼續在該框架的應用一致性方面取得進展。

By embracing these principles, along with taking self-help actions, the team executed well in the quarter as we continue to navigate the fluid and uncertain macro and geopolitical environment.

通過遵循這些原則，並採取自助行動，團隊在本季度表現良好，因為我們繼續在多變和不確定的宏觀和地緣政治環境中航行。

We continue to focus on serving our customers and drive additional actions, including: recovering our sales backlog in China from the April and May COVID-related lockdowns; implementing appropriate selling price actions to address ongoing inflation; maintaining strong spending discipline; implementing targeted productivity actions to adjust businesses to end market demand trends while driving simplification; and continuing to invest in growth, productivity and sustainability to ensure we are all well positioned for long-term success.

我們將繼續專注於為客戶提供服務並採取更多行動，包括：從 4 月和 5 月與 COVID 相關的封鎖中恢復我們在中國的銷售積壓；實施適當的售價措施以應對持續的通貨膨脹；保持嚴格的支出紀律；實施有針對性的生產力行動，以調整業務以適應最終市場需求趨勢，同時推動簡化；並繼續投資於增長、生產力和可持續性，以確保我們都為長期成功做好準備。

These actions helped to more than offset a number of headwinds in the quarter, including: the decline in disposable respirator sales, which negatively impacted Q3 operating margins by 30 basis points and earnings by $0.07 a share; incremental end market softness, particularly in consumer electronics, along with oral care and consumer retail in the U.S. as persistent inflationary pressures are slowing consumer spending; ongoing global supply chain challenges and raw material constraints; and finally, geopolitical impacts, particularly Russia, which was a year-on-year headwind of $50 million to revenue and $0.03 to earnings per share.

這些舉措不僅抵消了本季度的一些不利因素，包括：一次性呼吸器銷量下降，這對第三季度的營業利潤率和每股收益產生了 30 個基點的負面影響，每股收益減少了 0.07 美元；由於持續的通脹壓力正在減緩消費者支出，終端市場逐漸疲軟，尤其是消費電子產品，以及美國的口腔護理和消費零售；持續的全球供應鏈挑戰和原材料限制；最後是地緣政治影響，尤其是俄羅斯，這給收入帶來了 5000 萬美元的收入和每股收益 0.03 美元的同比逆風。

In total, our operating framework and self-help actions resulted in an overall net benefit to operating margins of 2.9 percentage points and $0.41 to earnings.

總的來說，我們的運營框架和自助行動為運營利潤率帶來了 2.9 個百分點的整體淨收益和 0.41 美元的收益。

Moving to raw material and logistics inflation. As I've noted over last several quarters, inflationary pressures remain persistent and are broad-based. Therefore, we continue to experience year-on-year headwinds with a Q3 cost increase of approximately $225 million or a negative impact of 2.6 percentage points to operating margins and $0.31 to earnings. Our full year raw materials and logistics inflation estimate of $750 million to $850 million remains unchanged. And as we have said before, we continue to expect to offset this through pricing actions.

轉向原材料和物流通脹。正如我在過去幾個季度中所指出的那樣，通脹壓力仍然持續存在並且範圍廣泛。因此，我們繼續遭遇同比逆風，第三季度成本增加約 2.25 億美元，或對營業利潤率和收益產生 2.6 個百分點的負面影響和 0.31 美元。我們對 7.5 億至 8.5 億美元的全年原材料和物流通脹估計保持不變。正如我們之前所說，我們繼續期望通過定價行動來抵消這一點。

The strength of the U.S. dollar continued to affect total revenue as foreign currency translation was a negative 5% impact. As a result, we had a benefit of 10 basis points to margins, however, incurred a headwind of $0.12 to earnings per share.

美元走強繼續影響總收入，因為外幣折算產生了 5% 的負面影響。結果，我們的利潤率提高了 10 個基點，但每股收益受到了 0.12 美元的不利影響。

As Mike mentioned, we have been actively managing our portfolio. On September 1, we closed the Food Safety divestiture, resulting in approximately $1 billion in consideration received along with reducing outstanding share count by 16 million via an exchange offer.

正如邁克所說，我們一直在積極管理我們的投資組合。 9 月 1 日，我們完成了對食品安全的剝離，通過交換要約獲得了大約 10 億美元的對價，同時流通股數量減少了 1600 萬股。

However, we lost 1 month of sales and income from Food Safety in the quarter. Therefore, the lost sales and income from Food Safety, along with the deconsolidation of Aearo Technologies, resulted in a year-on-year headwind of $0.02 to earnings per share in the quarter.

但是，我們在本季度損失了 1 個月的食品安全銷售和收入。因此，食品安全的銷售和收入損失，以及 Aearo Technologies 的分拆，導致本季度每股收益同比下降 0.02 美元。

Finally, other financial items increased earnings by net $0.15 per share year-on-year driven equally by benefits from a lower share count along with a lower-than-expected tax rate.

最後，其他金融項目的每股收益同比增加了 0.15 美元，這同樣得益於股票數量減少以及稅率低於預期的好處。

The lower third quarter adjusted tax rate was primarily the result of favorable outcomes from prior year audit settlements and geographic income mix. Looking at the full year, we now expect our adjusted tax rate in the range of 17.5% to 18.5% versus 18.5% to 19.5% previously.

第三季度調整後稅率較低主要是由於上一年審計結算和地域收入組合的有利結果。縱觀全年，我們現在預計調整後的稅率在 17.5% 至 18.5% 之間，而之前為 18.5% 至 19.5%。

Please turn to Slide 5. Third quarter adjusted free cash flow was $1.4 billion with conversion of 88%, an improvement from first half performance as we drive working capital intensity, including improved inventory levels, while also increasing CapEx for growth and sustainability investments. We remain focused on working capital improvement as we continue to navigate through a fluid supply chain environment.

請轉到幻燈片 5。第三季度調整後的自由現金流為 14 億美元，轉換率為 88%，比上半年的業績有所改善，因為我們推動營運資本密集度，包括提高庫存水平，同時也增加了增長和可持續投資的資本支出。隨著我們繼續在流動的供應鏈環境中導航，我們仍然專注於改善營運資金。

Even though the environment remains challenging, we are realizing benefits from our efforts as we leverage the use of data and data analytics to reduce inventory levels through better demand planning and optimized customer payment terms. We expect to continue to realize benefits from our actions as we move forward.

儘管環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們正在從我們的努力中獲益，因為我們利用數據和數據分析通過更好的需求規劃和優化的客戶付款條件來降低庫存水平。我們希望在前進的過程中繼續從我們的行動中獲益。

Capital expenditures were $435 million in the quarter and $1.2 billion year-to-date or up 19% year-on-year as we continue to invest in growth, productivity and sustainability. Based upon the current status of supply chains and pace of projects, we now expect full year CapEx investments in the range of $1.75 billion to $1.85 billion.

由於我們繼續投資於增長、生產力和可持續性，本季度的資本支出為 4.35 億美元，今年迄今為 12 億美元或同比增長 19%。根據供應鏈的現狀和項目進度，我們現在預計全年資本支出投資在 17.5 億美元至 18.5 億美元之間。

During the quarter, we returned $1 billion to shareholders through the combination of cash dividends of $850 million and share repurchases of $155 million. On a year-to-date basis, we returned $3.5 billion to shareholders, including $2.6 billion in dividends and $900 million in share repurchases. In addition, we reduced our outstanding share count by 16 million via an exchange offer associated with the Food Safety divestiture.

在本季度，我們通過 8.5 億美元的現金股息和 1.55 億美元的股票回購向股東返還了 10 億美元。年初至今，我們向股東返還了 35 億美元，其中包括 26 億美元的股息和 9 億美元的股票回購。此外，我們通過與食品安全剝離相關的交換要約將流通股數量減少了 1600 萬股。

Both dividends and share repurchases remain important pillars of our capital allocation strategy. We continue to see the current value of the stock as a very attractive opportunity and have resumed share repurchase activity following the Food Safety divestiture.

股息和股票回購仍然是我們資本配置戰略的重要支柱。我們繼續將股票的當前價值視為一個非常有吸引力的機會，並在食品安全剝離後恢復了股票回購活動。

Having a strong balance sheet and capital structure remains a priority for 3M because of the flexibility it provides us to continue to invest organically in the business, pursue strategic M&A opportunities and return cash to shareholders while navigating legal matters.

擁有強大的資產負債表和資本結構仍然是 3M 的首要任務，因為它為我們提供了繼續對業務進行有機投資、尋求戰略併購機會並在處理法律事務的同時向股東返還現金的靈活性。

Net debt at the end of Q3 stood at $12.1 billion, down 3% year-on-year and down over 30% since 2019.

第三季度末的淨債務為 121 億美元，同比下降 3%，自 2019 年以來下降超過 30%。

Please turn to Slide 7 for our business group performance for Q3. I will start with our Safety and Industrial business, which posted sales of $2.9 billion or up 1.7% organically compared to last year's third quarter. This result included a year-on-year headwind of approximately $130 million due to the ongoing decline in demand for disposable respirators. Excluding disposable respirators, Safety and Industrial posted Q3 organic growth of over 6%, driven by broad-based performance along with the backlog recovery in China from the April and May COVID-related lockdowns.

請轉到幻燈片 7，了解我們第三季度的業務組業績。我將從我們的安全和工業業務開始，該業務的銷售額為 29 億美元，與去年第三季度相比有機增長 1.7%。由於對一次性呼吸器的需求持續下降，這一結果包括約 1.3 億美元的同比逆風。不包括一次性呼吸器，安全和工業部門第三季度的有機增長超過 6%，這得益於廣泛的業績以及中國從 4 月和 5 月與 COVID 相關的封鎖中積壓的複蘇。

Our personal safety business declined low double digits organically primarily due to the decline in COVID-related disposable respirator demand.

我們的人身安全業務有機地下降了兩位數，主要是由於與 COVID 相關的一次性呼吸器需求下降。

Turning to the rest of Safety and Industrial. Organic growth was led by low teen increases in both automotive aftermarket and roofing granules. Electrical markets and abrasives grew high single digits, while closure and masking systems and industrial adhesives and tapes delivered mid-single-digit growth. Operationally, the Safety and Industrial team drove strong execution during the third quarter, delivering adjusted operating income of $673 million, up 8% versus last year and up 7% sequentially versus Q2. Adjusted operating margins were 23.2%, up 2.5 percentage points as the team managed inflation with price actions, drove yield and efficiency and exercised strong spending discipline.

轉向安全和工業的其餘部分。有機增長是由汽車售後市場和屋頂顆粒的低青少年增長帶動的。電氣市場和磨料增長了高個位數，而封閉和遮蔽系統以及工業粘合劑和膠帶實現了中個位數的增長。在運營方面，安全和工業團隊在第三季度推動了強有力的執行，調整後的營業收入為 6.73 億美元，比去年同期增長 8%，比第二季度增長 7%。調整後的營業利潤率為 23.2%，上升 2.5 個百分點，原因是該團隊通過價格行為管理通脹、提高收益和效率並執行嚴格的支出紀律。

The Safety and Industrial Business Group continues to focus on investing for the future, including in digital platforms such as repair stack for connected automotive body shops and sustainable platforms like thermal barriers for auto electrification.

安全和工業業務集團繼續專注於未來投資，包括數字平台，如互聯汽車車身修理廠的維修堆棧和可持續平台，如汽車電氣化的熱障。

Moving to Transportation and Electronics, which posted sales of $2.2 billion or up 3% organically compared to last year. Overall growth was benefited by COVID-related backlog recovery in the Greater China region, which was partially offset by increased weakness in consumer electronics demand, along with the continued constraints in the semiconductor supply chain. Our electronics-related business declined mid-single digits organically with decreases across consumer electronics, particularly smartphones, tablets and TVs. These declines were partially offset by continued strong demand for our solutions in semiconductor, factory automation and automotive end markets.

轉向運輸和電子行業，該行業的銷售額為 22 億美元，與去年相比有機增長 3%。整體增長受益於大中華地區與 COVID 相關的積壓訂單恢復，但消費電子需求疲軟以及半導體供應鏈的持續限制部分抵消了這一影響。我們與電子產品相關的業務隨著消費電子產品（尤其是智能手機、平板電腦和電視）的下降而有機地下降了中個位數。這些下降被半導體、工廠自動化和汽車終端市場對我們解決方案的持續強勁需求部分抵消。

Organic sales in our auto OEM business were up 21% year-on-year as compared to an estimated 27% increase in car and light truck builds. As you may recall, we outperformed last year's Q3 build rate by nearly 20 percentage points as we benefit from a channel inventory build, which was unwound in Q4 last year.

我們的汽車 OEM 業務的有機銷售額同比增長 21%，而轎車和輕型卡車製造業務預計增長 27%。您可能還記得，由於我們受益於去年第四季度解除的渠道庫存建設，我們的業績比去年第三季度的建設率高出近 20 個百分點。

Turning to the rest of Transportation and Electronics. Commercial solutions grew organically high single digits, while advanced materials grew mid-single digits and transportation safety was down low single digits. Despite the continued fluid end market environment, the Transportation and Electronics team delivered strong operating performance. Third quarter operating income increased 9% to $474 million with operating margins of 21.2%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. Operating margins were benefited by price actions as we navigated inflationary pressures along with the strong spending discipline.

轉向運輸和電子的其餘部分。商業解決方案有機地增長了高個位數，而先進材料增長了中個位數，運輸安全性下降了低個位數。儘管終端市場環境持續動盪，但運輸和電子團隊仍取得了強勁的經營業績。第三季度營業收入增長 9% 至 4.74 億美元，營業利潤率為 21.2%，同比增長 2.5 個百分點。隨著我們應對通脹壓力以及嚴格的支出紀律，經營利潤率受益於價格走勢。

The Transportation and Electronics business group is investing to solve some of the toughest challenges in the market and executing for future growth. For example, in Q3, we opened a new battery component testing lab to support accelerating opportunities in automotive electrification.

運輸和電子業務集團正在投資以解決市場上一些最嚴峻的挑戰，並為未來的增長而執行。例如，在第三季度，我們開設了一個新的電池組件測試實驗室，以支持汽車電氣化的加速機遇。

Looking at our Health Care business, which delivered Q3 sales of $2.1 billion with organic growth of 1.7% versus last year's strong 8% comparison. Our medical solutions, food safety, separation and purification and Health Information Systems businesses all increased low single digits organically. While we did have organic growth in separation and purification year-on-year, biopharma was down in the U.S. due to last year's strong demand for COVID therapeutics.

看看我們的醫療保健業務，該業務第三季度銷售額為 21 億美元，有機增長 1.7%，而去年則為 8%。我們的醫療解決方案、食品安全、分離純化和健康信息系統業務均實現低個位數有機增長。雖然我們確實在分離和純化方面實現了有機增長，但由於去年對 COVID 療法的強勁需求，生物製藥在美國的銷量有所下降。

Third quarter elective medical procedure volumes were approximately 90% of pre-COVID levels as we saw activity dip in July and ramp back up as we went through the quarter. Fourth quarter procedure volumes are currently projected to be 90% to 95% of pre-COVID levels as labor shortages continue to impact the pace of recovery.

第三季度的選擇性醫療程序量約為 COVID 之前水平的 90%，因為我們看到活動在 7 月份有所下降，並在整個季度中回升。由於勞動力短缺繼續影響復甦步伐，目前預計第四季度的手術量將是 COVID 前水平的 90% 至 95%。

Oral care was down mid-single digits against low double-digit growth from a year ago. We are also seeing softening due to the ongoing inflationary pressures impacting consumer spending on discretionary oral care and orthodontic procedures.

與一年前相比，口腔護理下降了中個位數，而增長率則保持在兩位數的低位。由於持續的通脹壓力影響消費者在可自由支配的口腔護理和正畸程序上的支出，我們也看到了疲軟。

Health Care's third quarter operating income was $452 million, down 11% year-on-year. Operating margins were 21.8%, down 1.7 percentage points with adjusted EBITDA margins of over 29%. Year-on-year operating margins were impacted by increased raw materials and logistics costs along with manufacturing productivity headwinds. These impacts were partially offset by price actions and spending discipline.

醫療保健第三季度營業收入為 4.52 億美元，同比下降 11%。營業利潤率為 21.8%，下降 1.7 個百分點，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率超過 29%。同比營業利潤率受到原材料和物流成本增加以及製造業生產力逆風的影響。這些影響被價格行為和支出紀律部分抵消。

The Health Care Business Group is focused on delivering innovation, including investments in the launch of 3M Filtek Matrix, which creates a new and innovative approach for dental restorations, simplifying the procedure and enabling more natural tooth structure to remain. In addition, the team made capital investments to support manufacturing capacity expansions in the separation and purification and Medical Solutions business.

醫療保健業務集團專注於提供創新，包括投資推出 3M Filtek Matrix，它為牙齒修復創造了一種新的創新方法，簡化了程序並保持更自然的牙齒結構。此外，該團隊還進行了資本投資，以支持分離純化和醫療解決方案業務的製造能力擴張。

Lastly, our Consumer business posted third quarter sales of $1.4 billion or up 1.5% year-on-year on an organic basis versus last year's 8% comparison. Year-on-year growth in the third quarter was led by consumer health and safety, which was up mid-single digits organically, and stationery and office and home care, which both grew low single digits.

最後，我們的消費者業務第三季度銷售額為 14 億美元，同比增長 1.5%，而去年同期為 8%。第三季度同比增長由消費者健康和安全引領，有機增長中個位數，文具、辦公室和家庭護理均增長低個位數。

Home improvement growth was down low single digits organically versus last year's strong comparison, however, increased mid-teens sequentially. The back-to-school season was softer than expected as consumer spending continues to be impacted by ongoing inflationary pressures, along with retailers aggressively addressing elevated inventory levels. Looking ahead, we anticipate these impacts to continue throughout the upcoming holiday season.

與去年的強勁比較相比，家裝增長有機地下降了低個位數，但是，連續增長了十幾歲。由於消費者支出繼續受到持續通脹壓力的影響，以及零售商積極應對庫存水平升高的問題，返校季比預期要疲軟。展望未來，我們預計這些影響將持續到即將到來的假日季節。

Consumer's third quarter operating income was $299 million, down 3% compared to last year, with operating margins of 21.3%, down slightly year-on-year. Our Consumer business operating margins benefited from selling price actions, spending discipline and restructuring actions. These benefits were more than offset by increase in raw materials, logistics and outsourced hard goods manufacturing costs and manufacturing productivity headwinds.

消費者第三季度營業收入為2.99億美元，同比下降3%，營業利潤率為21.3%，同比略有下降。我們的消費者業務經營利潤率受益於銷售價格行動、支出紀律和重組行動。這些好處被原材料、物流和外包硬商品製造成本的增加以及製造生產力的不利因素所抵消。

The Consumer Business Group is executing for future growth, including expanding our Command platform to help consumers hang, organize and decorate in even more creative ways.

消費者業務集團正在為未來的增長而努力，包括擴展我們的 Command 平台，以幫助消費者以更有創意的方式懸掛、整理和裝飾。

Please turn to Slide 9 for a discussion on our 2022 outlook. The macro environment remains uncertain with mixed trends and signals across geographies and end markets. While we are working through these challenges and taking actions, we are updating our full year guidance, reflecting our year-to-date performance, increasing U.S. dollar strength, along with the continued fluid environment.

請轉到幻燈片 9，討論我們的 2022 年展望。宏觀環境仍然不確定，不同地區和終端市場的趨勢和信號參差不齊。在我們應對這些挑戰並採取行動的同時，我們正在更新我們的全年指引，以反映我們年初至今的表現、美元走強以及持續動蕩的環境。

Our updated 2022 full year outlook includes: organic growth in the range of 1.5% to 2% versus a prior range of 1.5% to 3.5%; adjusted earnings in the range of $10.10 to $10.35 versus a prior range of $10.30 to $10.80, which includes an additional headwind of $0.15 per share from foreign currency exchange compared to just 3 months ago; and adjusted free cash flow conversion to be in the range of 85% to 95% versus a prior range of 90% to 100%.

我們更新的 2022 年全年展望包括：有機增長在 1.5% 至 2% 之間，而之前的範圍為 1.5% 至 3.5%；調整後收益在 10.10 美元至 10.35 美元之間，而之前的範圍為 10.30 美元至 10.80 美元，其中包括與僅 3 個月前相比，來自外匯兌換的每股 0.15 美元的額外逆風；調整後的自由現金流轉換率在 85% 到 95% 之間，而之前的範圍是 90% 到 100%。

Before I wrap up, let me make a few comments regarding the fourth quarter. First, from an end market perspective, GDP and IPI continued to moderate with current Q4 estimates of 1.4% and 2.2%, respectively. We are closely monitoring the geopolitical environment in Europe and the impact on energy inflation and end market demand.

在結束之前，讓我對第四季度發表一些評論。首先，從終端市場的角度來看，GDP 和 IPI 繼續放緩，目前第四季度的預期分別為 1.4% 和 2.2%。我們正在密切關注歐洲的地緣政治環境以及對能源通脹和終端市場需求的影響。

Auto build rates are currently estimated to be up 2% year-on-year, while consumer electronics demand is expected to remain soft. Health care elective procedure and oral care volumes are expected to be in the range of 90% to 95% of pre-COVID levels. And lastly, we anticipate continued inflationary impacts on consumer spending, along with the inventory reduction actions at retailers.

目前估計汽車製造率將同比增長 2%，而消費電子產品的需求預計將保持疲軟。醫療保健選擇性程序和口腔護理量預計將在 COVID 前水平的 90% 至 95% 範圍內。最後，我們預計通脹對消費者支出的持續影響，以及零售商的庫存削減行動。

Therefore, looking at the fourth quarter, we expect total sales to be in the range of $7.9 billion to $8.2 billion. This includes organic growth in the range of 1% to 3%, which includes a 2% headwind or $150 million to $200 million from the continued decline in disposable respirator demand; and the exit of Russia, which will create a year-on-year headwind of approximately 80 basis points or approximately $70 million. Excluding the impact from these 2 items, Q4 organic growth is estimated to be nearly 4% to 6%.

因此，從第四季度來看，我們預計總銷售額將在 79 億美元至 82 億美元之間。這包括 1% 至 3% 的有機增長，其中包括 2% 的逆風或一次性呼吸器需求持續下降帶來的 1.5 億至 2 億美元；以及俄羅斯的退出，這將造成約 80 個基點或約 7000 萬美元的同比逆風。排除這兩項的影響，第四季度的有機增長估計接近 4% 至 6%。

Increasing U.S. dollar strength is anticipated to be a year-on-year headwind of approximately 7% of sales or roughly $600 million. The divestiture of Food Safety and deconsolidation of Aearo Technologies will result in a Q4 headwind of approximately $120 million to sales or 1.5%.

美元走強預計將帶來約 7% 的銷售額或約 6 億美元的同比逆風。食品安全的剝離和 Aearo Technologies 的分拆將導致第四季度的銷售逆風約為 1.2 億美元或 1.5%。

Turning to raw materials and logistics costs. We anticipate a Q4 year-on-year headwind of approximately $100 million to $150 million, which we expect to able to navigate and offset the price actions. Operating margins are expected to be in the range of 20% to 21%. And finally, our outstanding share count is currently anticipated to be in the mid-550 million share range, taking into account the 16 million share count reduction that I mentioned earlier.

轉向原材料和物流成本。我們預計第四季度的同比逆風約為 1 億至 1.5 億美元，我們希望能夠駕馭並抵消價格走勢。營業利潤率預計將在 20% 至 21% 之間。最後，考慮到我之前提到的 1600 萬股減少，我們的流通股數量目前預計在 5.5 億股左右。

Looking ahead to 2023. While we are in the early stages of working through our plan, we see some items impacting us this year that will continue into next year while some challenges may ease. We expect the macroeconomic environment to continue to moderate while geopolitical uncertainties persist, impacting energy costs and end market demand, particularly in Europe. We are also monitoring the impact of the strong U.S. dollar along with evolving COVID-related impacts, including on government policy response, health care elective procedure volumes and disposable respirator demand.

展望 2023 年。雖然我們正處於製定計劃的早期階段，但我們看到今年影響我們的一些項目將持續到明年，而一些挑戰可能會緩解。我們預計宏觀經濟環境將繼續放緩，而地緣政治不確定性持續存在，影響能源成本和終端市場需求，尤其是在歐洲。我們還在監測強勢美元的影響以及不斷演變的 COVID 相關影響，包括對政府政策反應、醫療保健選擇性手術量和一次性呼吸器需求的影響。

Looking at end markets. We expect the pace of secular industry trends to accelerate, particular in automotive, electronics, safety, digitization and sustainability. Each of these markets have tremendous opportunities for long-term growth as we continue to innovate and invest in these areas.

著眼於終端市場。我們預計長期行業趨勢的步伐將會加快，特別是在汽車、電子、安全、數字化和可持續性方面。隨著我們繼續在這些領域進行創新和投資，這些市場中的每一個都擁有巨大的長期增長機會。

Raw material, logistics and labor inflation are starting to show some signs of moderation, and we are starting to see some evidence of global supply chain stabilization. As Mike mentioned, we believe manufacturing and supply chain operations are our greatest opportunity to reduce costs and increase productivity to drive improvement in operating margin performance.

原材料、物流和勞動力通脹開始出現一些緩和跡象，我們開始看到全球供應鏈穩定的一些跡象。正如邁克所提到的，我們相信製造和供應鏈運營是我們降低成本和提高生產力以推動運營利潤率表現改善的最大機會。

While significant uncertainty is expected to remain, we are focused on serving customers and executing our operating framework and operating principles. We are prepared and will adjust as warranted and take necessary self-help actions to deliver long-term value for all our stakeholders.

儘管預計仍會存在重大不確定性，但我們專注於為客戶服務並執行我們的運營框架和運營原則。我們已做好準備，並將根據需要進行調整，並採取必要的自助行動，為所有利益相關者創造長期價值。

And finally, we are also working on ensuring we execute well on our Health Care spin to create 2 leading, world-class companies. As always, there is more we can do and will do.

最後，我們還在努力確保我們在醫療保健領域的表現良好，以創建兩家領先的世界級公司。與往常一樣，我們可以做的還有更多。

To wrap up, I want to thank our customers and suppliers for their partnerships and the 3M employees for their hard work and dedication as they continue delivering for our customers.

最後，我要感謝我們的客戶和供應商的合作夥伴關係，以及 3M 員工在繼續為我們的客戶提供產品時的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

That concludes my remarks for the third quarter. With that, we will now take your questions.

我對第三季度的發言到此結束。有了這個，我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自於 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

You guys were pretty clear about the end market outlook and stuff. Can you just take a step backwards and walk around the world just by region on where things are getting kind of better or worse or where things coming in a little bit better or worse than expectations? And I guess the onus of the question is some of the results we've seen so far have been a little bit better in Europe and China than expected, but you guys noted some cautious comments there. But I'll just stop there and let you guys give some color.

你們對最終市場前景和東西非常清楚。你能退後一步，按地區走遍世界各地，看看事情變得更好或更糟，或者事情比預期更好或更差嗎？我想這個問題的責任是我們迄今為止看到的一些結果在歐洲和中國比預期的要好一些，但是你們注意到了一些謹慎的評論。但我會停在那裡，讓你們給一些顏色。

Sure, Scott. Maybe I'll kind of walk around the regions to give you a little more color than my opening comments highlighted where we are growing in each region. Just start with the Americas. And as you look at it, we saw the strongest growth for us in automotive and areas like electrical markets and our electronics markets and material solutions. We saw declines in personal safety. Monish highlighted the separation and purification coming off the comparison to the COVID demand in vaccines and therapeutics. And then we highlighted the softer consumer spending in oral care, both orthodontics and chair-side dentistry.

當然，斯科特。也許我會在這些地區四處走走，比我的開場評論強調我們在每個地區的發展方向給你更多的色彩。就從美洲開始吧。正如你所看到的，我們在汽車和電氣市場以及我們的電子市場和材料解決方案等領域看到了最強勁的增長。我們看到人身安全有所下降。 Monish 強調了與疫苗和治療劑中的 COVID 需求進行比較後的分離和純化。然後我們強調了口腔護理方面的消費者支出疲軟，包括正畸和椅旁牙科。

Looking at EMEA, we saw it up slightly this quarter. It was slightly negative in Q2. So slightly up this quarter, strongest growth there in automotive, too. So you're seeing a trend, the strong Q3 for automotive globally. We saw declines in personal safety and oral care, coming off COVID for personal safety and some of the similar dynamics in oral care.

縱觀歐洲、中東和非洲，本季度我們看到它略有上升。第二季度略有負面。本季度略有增長，汽車領域的增長也最為強勁。因此，您看到了一種趨勢，即全球汽車行業強勁的第三季度。我們看到個人安全和口腔護理有所下降，為了個人安全而脫離 COVID 以及口腔護理中的一些類似動態。

APAC growth, again, led by automotive. Personal safety was strong in APAC. We saw some strong strength in industrial portfolios more broadly. Something that we saw in the quarter in the Safety and Industrial business ex personal safety had strong growth in the quarter, organic growth. Saw the decline was in electronics and APAC. We also saw some impact from some of the declines in areas like transportation safety.

亞太地區的增長再次由汽車引領。亞太地區的人身安全很強。我們在更廣泛的範圍內看到了工業投資組合的一些強勁實力。我們在本季度看到的除人身安全外的安全和工業業務在本季度實現了強勁增長，即有機增長。看到下降的是電子產品和亞太地區。我們還看到運輸安全等領域的一些下降帶來了一些影響。

And then in China, the big story was the recovery from the lockdowns in Q2 and then also the declines in display materials and broader electronics as you saw the declines in consumer electronics impacting that. We were -- we did see strength in personal safety. We saw strength in automotive. We saw strength in broader industrial. So kind of a similar story across the areas, a little different growth dynamics, but similar story. And we -- I would say we finished the quarter with our industrial businesses showing some strength.

然後在中國，最大的故事是從第二季度的封鎖中復蘇，然後是顯示材料和更廣泛的電子產品的下滑，因為你看到消費電子產品的下滑對其產生了影響。我們是——我們確實看到了人身安全方面的力量。我們看到了汽車領域的實力。我們在更廣泛的工業領域看到了實力。跨領域的類似故事，增長動力略有不同，但故事相似。而且我們 - 我會說我們在本季度結束時我們的工業業務顯示出一些實力。

We saw continued strength in automotive, the softening in consumer electronics. Those are some of those trends that played out across the world. And then elective procedure is starting to see seeing the same trend improving, but not back to pre-COVID levels in terms of elective procedures. So again, trends that we're seeing across the different regions.

我們看到汽車行業持續走強，消費電子產品疲軟。這些是在世界範圍內出現的一些趨勢。然後，選擇性程序開始看到相同的趨勢有所改善，但在選擇性程序方面並沒有回到 COVID 之前的水平。同樣，我們在不同地區看到的趨勢。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then just to be clear, Mike, is price where you want it to be right now? Are we kind of at a fairly balanced level versus cost, and that's no longer a major issue?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後澄清一下，邁克，你現在想要的價格是多少？我們是否處於與成本相當平衡的水平，這不再是一個主要問題？

Yes, Scott, we talked about that as we've gone through the year. We said at the beginning of the year that we were confident price would help us offset inflation as we came through the year, and that's been the case. Our pricing, as you know, it's one component of those -- our value in the marketplace. The other is managing the inflation that we've been seeing globally. And we have been, I think, managing that price against inflation well all year, and we're well positioned as we go into the end of the year.

是的，斯科特，我們在這一年中談到了這一點。我們在年初表示，我們相信價格將幫助我們抵消今年的通貨膨脹，事實就是如此。如您所知，我們的定價是其中的一個組成部分——我們在市場上的價值。另一個是管理我們在全球範圍內看到的通貨膨脹。我認為，我們全年都很好地控制了這個價格以應對通貨膨脹，並且我們在進入年底時處於有利地位。

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Obin。

Just a question sort of longer-term question for you guys. How are you guys thinking about inflation into '23? And specifically, you guys no longer disclose pricing, but just trying to understand how are you thinking about the pricing mechanism of 3M. And how are you adapting to what's happening? And do you think we're going to get into a less inflationary environment? Or from what you're seeing, inflation is pretty sticky into next year?

對你們來說，這只是一個長期問題。你們如何看待23年的通貨膨脹？具體來說，你們不再透露定價，只是想了解你們如何看待 3M 的定價機制。你如何適應正在發生的事情？你認為我們會進入一個不那麼通貨膨脹的環境嗎？或者從你所看到的情況來看，通脹在明年是相當棘手的？

Andrew, it's a great question. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, we're still early in looking at 2023. What we are seeing is a little moderation in inflation, but it's not been consistent and persistent. We are seeing inflation is pretty much still broad-based. In areas that we are seeing is logistics has seen some slowdown in the pace of inflation. However, if you look at intermediate finished goods, they are still pretty high and so is specialty raw materials.

安德魯，這是一個很好的問題。正如我在開場白中提到的那樣，我們對 2023 年的展望仍處於早期階段。我們所看到的是通脹略有放緩，但並非始終如一和持續存在。我們看到通脹仍然是基礎廣泛的。在我們看到的領域，物流的通貨膨脹速度有所放緩。但是，如果您查看中間成品，它們仍然很高，特種原材料也是如此。

So I would say if you just look at what inflation we had in the third quarter, it was $225 million. In the fourth quarter, we are seeing somewhere between $100 million to $150 million. So there's a little moderation. I think what time will tell is whether 2023, we are able to see sustained lower prices, and I think that would be good for all. So that's one.

所以我想說，如果你看看我們在第三季度的通貨膨脹，它是 2.25 億美元。在第四季度，我們看到介於 1 億至 1.5 億美元之間。所以有一點節制。我認為時間會證明 2023 年我們是否能夠看到價格持續走低，我認為這對所有人都有好處。所以這是一個。

To answer your question on pricing. As Mike mentioned in his remarks and mine and even the prior question, we take a very thoughtful approach to pricing. Nearly 70% of our pricing is -- our products are pretty much spec in products. So we take a very thoughtful approach. We look at it region by region. We look at it product by product. And I would say we'll have to follow -- we follow a very thoughtful approach. We'll follow a very thoughtful approach in 2023 also because no one has seen this historic level of inflation in the recent past. So depending on where that goes, we'll play that self out in the market. But at the end of the day, as Mike mentioned, part of our pricing is not just driven by cost. It's also the value that we drive for our customers.

回答您關於定價的問題。正如邁克在他的評論和我的甚至之前的問題中提到的那樣，我們對定價採取了非常周到的方法。我們近 70% 的定價是——我們的產品非常符合產品規格。所以我們採取了非常周到的方法。我們逐個地區查看它。我們逐個產品地查看它。我想說我們必須遵循——我們遵循一種非常周到的方法。我們將在 2023 年採用一種非常周到的方法，因為最近沒有人看到過這種歷史性的通貨膨脹水平。因此，根據情況的不同，我們將在市場上發揮自己的作用。但歸根結底，正如邁克所說，我們的部分定價不僅僅是由成本驅動的。這也是我們為客戶創造的價值。

And then just a follow-up question -- I'm sorry.

然後只是一個後續問題- 對不起。

No. Go ahead.

沒有，繼續。

Just a follow-up question. If you look at recent stimulus that has been passed in the U.S., a lot of investment in chipset, a lot of investment on semiconductors. A lot of talk about supply chain for semiconductors, particularly things like upstream, like substrate maybe moving closer to North America. Do you guys need to sort of redo your global electronics supply chain given what's happening out there on the regulatory front and stimulus front and just voluntary moves in capacity globally?

只是一個後續問題。如果你看看美國最近通過的刺激措施，大量投資於芯片組，大量投資於半導體。很多關於半導體供應鏈的討論，特別是上游的事情，比如基板，可能會更接近北美。鑑於監管方面和刺激方面正在發生的事情以及全球產能的自願變動，你們是否需要重做全球電子供應鏈？

Yes, Andrew, and we're watching it closely. The Inflation Reduction Act, the chips factor they're providing the incentives for manufacturers and others to make investments in other parts of the world, the U.S. -- in the U.S. versus other parts of the world. And I would say we're assessing the impacts on our customers. You know our model. I mean we are -- we build capabilities and sufficient resources close to customers around the world. It's a regional model, and it gives us the ability to serve our customers in each region of the world. It also helps us be in a position to adapt as supply chain moves. And that's been true for electronics as it's moved around Asia, in particular.

是的，安德魯，我們正在密切關注。 《降低通脹法案》是他們為製造商和其他人提供激勵措施以在世界其他地區（美國）進行投資的籌碼因素——在美國與世界其他地區進行投資。我想說我們正在評估對客戶的影響。你知道我們的模型。我的意思是我們——我們在世界各地的客戶附近建立能力和充足的資源。這是一種區域模式，它使我們能夠為世界各地的客戶提供服務。它還有助於我們適應供應鏈的變化。尤其是電子產品在亞洲各地移動時，情況就是如此。

And with these incentives, we expect there will be some changes. We don't see a significant impact to our business in the near term, but we do serve global customers in electronics and semiconductor and will adjust as they make changes.

有了這些激勵措施，我們預計會有一些變化。我們認為短期內不會對我們的業務產生重大影響，但我們確實為電子和半導體領域的全球客戶提供服務，並將隨著他們的變化進行調整。

But nothing sort of definitive at this point yet. You're still waiting?

但目前還沒有任何確定性。你還在等嗎？

It's early in the process. There are announcements. There are investments being made, and we'll stay close to those, and we'll make adjustments as we go. And if you look at the U.S. in particular, just as a reminder, we are a net exporter out of the U.S. We export $5 billion out of the U.S. So it is a place where we've got a strong manufacturing position, and that puts us in a position to adjust as capacity gets invested here.

這是該過程的早期階段。有公告。正在進行投資，我們將密切關注這些投資，我們將隨時進行調整。如果你特別看一下美國，提醒一下，我們是美國的淨出口國。我們從美國出口了 50 億美元。所以這是一個我們擁有強大製造業地位的地方，這意味著我們可以隨著產能在這裡投入而進行調整。

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

So I saw that you kept your inflation numbers impact for the year. I'm just curious, like are you starting to see any of your costs like start to subside at all? And then if you can maybe start to -- give us a little bit of color on what you're seeing from a manufacturing perspective and energy costs in Europe and how that's impacting your business.

所以我看到你保持你的通脹數據對今年的影響。我只是好奇，你是否開始看到你的任何成本開始消退？然後，如果您可以開始 - 從歐洲的製造角度和能源成本以及這如何影響您的業務，請給我們一點顏色。

Yes. So Joe, I would tell you, we are seeing some moderation. As you saw, inflation was $225 million in Q3. We're accounting for $100 million to $150 million in Q4. The total at $750 million to $850 million has not changed. We are seeing inflation, I would say, is still generally broad-based. We are seeing higher inflation in specialty materials as well as intermediate finished goods. We are seeing a little bit of moderation in logistics. So that's where we are on inflation.

是的。所以喬，我會告訴你，我們看到了一些節制。如您所見，第三季度的通貨膨脹率為 2.25 億美元。我們在第四季度佔 1 億至 1.5 億美元。 7.5 億至 8.5 億美元的總額沒有變化。我想說，我們看到的通脹仍然普遍存在廣泛的基礎。我們看到特種材料和中間成品的通貨膨脹率更高。我們在物流方面看到了一點點溫和。這就是我們對通貨膨脹的看法。

And then on supply chain, I would say, we are also seeing some signs of stabilization, Joe. We are seeing raw materials flowing a little better than it has flown in the prior quarters, and you can see that's why the team was also able to deliver decent productivity in Q3. We'll have to watch and see whether, one, is the moderation in pricing or raw materials sustained. And secondly, is the flow of material sustained into Q4, and that's going to determine where we go.

然後在供應鏈上，我想說，我們也看到了一些穩定的跡象，喬。我們看到原材料的流動比前幾個季度的流動要好一些，你可以看到這就是為什麼團隊在第三季度也能夠提供可觀的生產力。我們將不得不觀察，一是價格放緩還是原材料持續放緩。其次，是持續到第四季度的材料流，這將決定我們的去向。

And as Mike has said, too, once we see the stabilization of supply chains and moderation of raw materials, we believe that is the best opportunity. We have other than volume to keep driving productivity in our factories and through that margin expansion.

正如邁克所說，一旦我們看到供應鏈的穩定和原材料的節制，我們相信這是最好的機會。除了產量之外，我們還有其他方式可以通過擴大利潤來繼續提高工廠的生產力。

Got it. That's helpful, Monish. And then I guess my follow-on question would be obviously, a lot of uncertainty in the market right now as we're heading into 2023. Just maybe talk us through a little bit of your recession playbook, how you're preparing yourself for what could be a pretty uncertain year. Just any color around that would be helpful.

知道了。這很有幫助，莫尼什。然後我想我的後續問題顯然是，隨著我們進入 2023 年，目前市場存在很多不確定性。也許可以通過你的經濟衰退手冊告訴我們，你是如何為自己做準備的可能是非常不確定的一年。周圍的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure. Joe. And our model -- our operating model has been strong and shown resiliency in many economic cycles. And it's been clear throughout COVID and I would say, the concern -- the current uncertainty in the markets that we're facing. And so we'll continue to do what we do in those cycles that helps us react to them well and position our performance well, and that's focused on serving our customers, driving productivity, efficiency in our supply chains and our factories and delivering strong cash flow and it keeps us focused on the right actions. And we'll stay focused on our end markets, too, where as we've talked about, there's some different dynamics in each of the end markets, even as we look at the softening global outlook for macro. And so we're prepared to adjust and take actions. That's our model, and it will serve us well as we navigate the uncertainty ahead.

當然。喬。而我們的模式——我們的運營模式一直很強大，並在許多經濟周期中表現出彈性。在整個 COVID 中很明顯，我想說的是，擔憂——我們面臨的市場當前的不確定性。因此，我們將繼續做我們在那些週期中所做的事情，以幫助我們對它們做出良好的反應並良好地定位我們的績效，這將專注於為我們的客戶提供服務，提高我們供應鍊和工廠的生產力和效率，並提供強大的現金流動，它讓我們專注於正確的行動。我們也將繼續關注我們的終端市場，正如我們所談到的，每個終端市場都有一些不同的動態，即使我們看到全球宏觀前景疲軟。因此，我們準備調整併採取行動。這就是我們的模式，它將在我們應對未來的不確定性時為我們服務。

Our next question comes from Chris Snyder with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的克里斯·斯奈德。

So I wanted to first ask on the Q4 guide, which puts organic growth largely in line with Q3 levels at the midpoint or exactly at the midpoint despite a slightly larger respirator headwind. But can you just provide some incremental color at the -- for the puts and takes at the segment level as we look into Q4?

因此，我想首先詢問第四季度指南，儘管呼吸器逆風略大，但有機增長基本與第三季度水平保持一致，處於中點或恰好處於中點。但是，當我們查看第四季度時，您能否為細分市場級別的看跌期權提供一些增量顏色？

Yes. Sure, Chris. I'll just start with recapping again Q4. We'll just start by saying last year's fourth quarter was our easiest guide or easiest comparison. Number 2 is, you're right. So disposable respirators is going to be down, and that creates a headwind of nearly 180 basis points. And then the exit of Russia is another $70 million, which gives another 80 basis points of pressure. So if you exclude all of that, you would get to a 4% to 6% increase in organic growth on a year-over-year basis.

是的。當然，克里斯。我將再次回顧第四季度。我們首先要說去年第四季度是我們最簡單的指南或最簡單的比較。 2號是，你是對的。因此一次性呼吸器將會下降，這將產生近 180 個基點的逆風。然後俄羅斯的退出又是7000萬美元，這又給了80個基點的壓力。因此，如果排除所有這些因素，有機增長將同比增長 4% 至 6%。

If you look at where the macro is going to be, GDP and IPI is in that 2-ish range for the fourth quarter, auto is going to be up 2% sequentially or nearly 2.5% depending on IHS forecast, approximately 2% up on a year-over-year basis. Elective procedures, which were at 90% in July and moved itself up a little bit in August and September, we believe will move up a little bit to 90% to 95%, so you'll see that uplift.

如果你看一下宏觀的走勢，第四季度的 GDP 和 IPI 處於 2-ish 範圍內，汽車將環比增長 2% 或接近 2.5%，具體取決於 IHS 的預測，大約增長 2%同比。選修程序在 7 月份為 90%，在 8 月和 9 月略有上升，我們相信會稍微上升到 90% 到 95%，所以你會看到這種上升。

I would say consumer spending continues to be weak. Even in the month of October, we have seen lower consumer spending. I called that out as those trends where the inflation is impacting the consumer, I think, remains through the holiday season as well as how inventory levels are adjusted by retailers is something that we'll have to watch.

我會說消費者支出繼續疲軟。即使在 10 月份，我們也看到消費者支出有所下降。我稱其為通脹影響消費者的趨勢，我認為，在假期期間仍然存在，以及零售商如何調整庫存水平是我們必須關注的事情。

Consumer electronics continues to be down on a year-over-year basis, a little moderation on improvement on a sequential basis. But again, there, we'll have to see where that plays itself out between consumer electronics as well as then you talk about semiconductor growth continues to be strong. We are continuing to see that in our business on the other side of the electronics business. And then from an industrial perspective, we've already talked about disposable respirator but the rest of the end market remains pretty strong in SIBG.

消費電子產品同比繼續下降，環比改善略有放緩。但同樣，我們將不得不看看消費電子產品之間在哪裡發揮作用，然後你談論半導體增長繼續強勁。我們將繼續在電子業務的另一端看到這一點。然後從工業角度來看，我們已經討論過一次性呼吸器，但 SIBG 的其他終端市場仍然相當強勁。

Really helpful. And then the second one just on margins. If we kind of look from Q3, margins were up versus Q2 on slightly lower top line. Is it fair to assume that reflects improving price cost? Or was there some margin impacts from the portfolio changes during the quarter? And if it does reflect improving price cost, I mean, is the expectation that, that should continue to improve from here, even if the cost relief might be a little bit down the road?

真的很有幫助。然後第二個就在邊緣。如果我們從第三季度來看，利潤率與第二季度相比有所上升，但營收略低。假設這反映了價格成本的提高是否公平？還是本季度的投資組合變化對利潤率產生了一些影響？如果它確實反映了價格成本的提高，我的意思是，是否期望從這裡繼續改善，即使成本降低可能會稍微降低一點？

Yes. So Chris, I would say it's all as we look at it, and the team has been doing a great job at driving margin expansion. And in Q3, you've seen -- as you said, we continue to see the price/cost equation. We have offset or managed our inflation through pricing actions. We have had better yield and efficiency also compared to the second quarter as we saw some stabilization of supply chains.

是的。所以克里斯，我想說這就是我們所看到的，團隊在推動利潤率擴張方面做得很好。在第三季度，您已經看到 - 正如您所說，我們繼續看到價格/成本等式。我們通過定價行動抵消或控制了通貨膨脹。與第二季度相比，我們的產量和效率也有所提高，因為我們看到供應鏈有所穩定。

Third, as I called out, we have also, as a team, had a lot of strong spending discipline. We took a lot of self-help measures. We proactively adjusted where we saw end market change, et cetera. So put all that together, we did see 50 basis points of margin expansion.

第三，正如我所說，作為一個團隊，我們也有很多嚴格的支出紀律。我們採取了很多自救措施。我們主動調整了我們看到終端市場變化的地方等等。綜上所述，我們確實看到了 50 個基點的利潤率擴張。

When you think about Q4, if you know that in Q3, we did $8.6 billion. In Q4, we are saying $7.9 million to $8.2 million, which is the volume basically gives us the best leverage. So that's why you do see margin come down. And historically, if you look at 3M also Q3 to Q4, always shows a decline because it is a lower volume quarter for 3M.

當您考慮第四季度時，如果您知道在第三季度，我們做了 86 億美元。在第四季度，我們說的是 790 萬美元到 820 萬美元，這基本上是為我們提供了最佳槓桿的交易量。這就是為什麼你確實看到利潤率下降的原因。從歷史上看，如果你看一下 3M 以及 Q3 到 Q4，總是會出現下降，因為這是 3M 銷量較低的季度。

To answer your question on what happens in the long term, I would say, Chris, the same as I've said in my prepared remarks, which is there are headwinds that we see, whether it's macroeconomic environment, FX, the impact of energy cost on -- in -- especially in Europe and the geopolitical environment are all headwinds. Similarly, we'll have to watch what happens with COVID-related demand, whether it is government policy, whether it is elective procedures or whether it is our own disposable respirator demand. But there are a lot of tailwinds, too. We see secular trends that will continue to go up in areas that we add a lot of value to customers, whether it's auto electrification, sustainability, digitization, just to name a few.

為了回答你關於長期會發生什麼的問題，我想說，克里斯，就像我在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們看到了逆風，無論是宏觀經濟環境、外匯、能源的影響成本——尤其是在歐洲——和地緣政治環境都是不利因素。同樣，我們將不得不觀察與 COVID 相關的需求會發生什麼，無論是政府政策、選擇性程序還是我們自己的一次性呼吸器需求。但也有很多順風。我們看到長期趨勢將在我們為客戶增加很多價值的領域繼續上升，無論是汽車電氣化、可持續性、數字化等等。

Also, when we -- as we see raw materials starting to stabilize or moderate and supply chain starting to stabilize or moderate, we should get a lot more opportunity to drive yield and efficiency, and that's what Mike said in his prepared remarks, too, that that's -- other than volume, that's one of our biggest opportunities, to continue to drive margin. So hopefully, that answers your question, Chris.

此外，當我們看到原材料開始穩定或緩和，供應鏈開始穩定或緩和時，我們應該獲得更多提高產量和效率的機會，這也是邁克在準備好的講話中所說的，那是 - 除了數量之外，這是我們繼續提高利潤率的最大機會之一。所以希望這能回答你的問題，克里斯。

Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Andrew Kaplowitz。

Maybe just a little more color into health care. I know you've talked about sales growth being a little lower in Q3, WorldCare turned down a little bit. It seems like the elective procedures have been stuck a little bit, and you talked about them improving in Q4. But was the issue just sort of staffing shortages is hospitals? What are you seeing in China over there? And how concerned are you about oral care given it does tend to be a little more sensitive to the economy?

也許只是在醫療保健方面多一點色彩。我知道您曾談到第三季度的銷售增長略低，WorldCare 拒絕了一點。選修程序似乎有點卡住了，您談到它們在第四季度有所改善。但問題僅僅是醫院的人員短缺嗎？你在中國看到了什麼？鑑於口腔護理確實對經濟更加敏感，您對口腔護理的關注程度如何？

Yes, Andy, you're right, there's some different dynamics going on than Q2 when you look at elective procedures and oral care versus surgical procedures or medical procedures. I think in general, it's on track with what we had said at the beginning of the year that it would get back to around 95% by the end of the year, 95% to 100%, maybe we're slightly below that now. And I think that's a reflection of what was part of your question. That's the staffing levels right now. It's been a bigger impact than obviously, COVID hospitalizations have been in the current quarter and then outlook for the rest of the year. So I think that's holding it back, maybe keeping it from being quite at the level that we thought it would be when we started the year.

是的，安迪，你是對的，當您查看選擇性手術和口腔護理與外科手術或醫療程序時，與第二季度相比，發生了一些不同的動態。我認為總的來說，它與我們在年初所說的一樣，到年底將回到 95% 左右，95% 到 100%，也許我們現在略低於這個水平。我認為這反映了你的問題的一部分。這就是現在的人員配置水平。它的影響比明顯的要大，COVID 住院人數一直在本季度，然後是今年剩餘時間的展望。所以我認為這阻礙了它，也許使它無法達到我們在年初時認為的水平。

Oral care, we saw strong recovery in procedures there in 2021, and that's part of the comp that we're looking at year-over-year. The impact this year appears to be consumer discretionary spending. And they are electing to spend less in some of those elective procedures in oral care. So that's had a softening impact. And we see those trends continue as we came out of Q3. So a little bit different than maybe where we saw at the beginning of the year, but it's -- generally, we're looking for improvements as we go into Q4 in those medical elective procedures.

口腔護理，我們在 2021 年看到那裡的程序強勁復甦，這是我們逐年研究的一部分。今年的影響似乎是消費者可自由支配的支出。他們選擇在口腔護理的一些選擇性程序上花費更少。所以這產生了軟化的影響。我們看到這些趨勢在我們第三季度結束時仍在繼續。因此，可能與我們在年初看到的情況有些不同，但通常情況下，我們在進入第四季度的那些醫療選擇性程序中尋求改進。

I would also just add that the other piece was Biopharma, which had a very strong quarter last year, and we are seeing on a year-on-year lower demand, just driven by the COVID therapeutics that we sold into last year.

我還要補充一點，另一部分是生物製藥，去年的季度表現非常強勁，我們看到需求同比下降，這只是受到我們去年銷售的 COVID 療法的推動。

Very helpful, guys. And then Monish, maybe you can update us on your work on digitization. And I think you've talked in the past about data analytics really helping you in the second half of the year here and especially in '23. It seems like today, you're talking about having cost out opportunity. I noticed your Safety and Industrial business margin was up nicely sequentially. So how much of an impact is that coming from digitization? Or is that just sort of general execution?

非常有幫助，伙計們。然後是 Monish，也許您可以向我們介紹您在數字化方面的工作。而且我認為您過去曾談到數據分析在今年下半年真正幫助您，尤其是在 23 年。好像今天，你在談論失去機會。我注意到你們的安全和工業業務利潤率連續上升。那麼，數字化帶來的影響有多大？或者這只是一般的執行？

So I would just say the following, Andy, is as I said in February at our Investor Day, digital can be a multiplier for 3M. And it will take time. We have 4 pillars. One is digital customer. The other one is digital product. The third one is digital operations. And then the last one is just digital enterprise or enterprise digital. I think the last one is ERP that helps us simplify our business. Digital operations is the place where you're talking about is from a factory perspective. The team has done a lot of work using data and data analytics to improve yield and efficiency in the factories. For example, we were able to create a digital twin for our respirator production during the pandemic, which the team is continuing to use and those models are being used for other parts of our production lines.

所以我只想說，安迪，正如我在 2 月份的投資者日所說的那樣，數字化可以成為 3M 的乘數。這需要時間。我們有 4 個支柱。一是數字客戶。另一種是數碼產品。三是數字化運營。然後最後一個只是數字化企業或企業數字化。我認為最後一個是幫助我們簡化業務的 ERP。從工廠的角度來看，數字化運營是您談論的地方。該團隊使用數據和數據分析做了很多工作，以提高工廠的產量和效率。例如，我們能夠在大流行期間為我們的呼吸器生產創建一個數字雙胞胎，該團隊正在繼續使用該模型，並且這些模型正在用於我們生產線的其他部分。

There's a lot more we can do in this area in automation and digitization to drive yield and efficiency and especially as supply chains start normalizing. This is an area where we should be able to dig faster into root cause and put into solutions.

在自動化和數字化領域，我們可以做更多工作，以提高產量和效率，尤其是在供應鏈開始正常化的情況下。這是我們應該能夠更快地挖掘根本原因並提出解決方案的領域。

Similarly, data and data analytics helps us in inventory a lot, too, Andy. And despite all the inefficiencies that exist currently in the supply chain, the teams have done a nice job of continuing to improve inventory. August to September saw a sequential decline in inventory. And so that's another sign that the teams are looking at data. It allows them actually to visually see where their inventory is, so it allows better demand planning.

同樣，數據和數據分析也對我們的庫存有很大幫助，安迪。儘管供應鏈中目前存在所有效率低下的問題，但團隊在繼續改善庫存方面做得很好。 8 月至 9 月庫存連續下降。這是團隊正在查看數據的另一個跡象。它使他們實際上可以直觀地看到他們的庫存在哪裡，因此可以更好地進行需求規劃。

And then if you actually go to digital product and digital customer, both of them, e-commerce continues to be an important area for us of growth. In the Safety and Industrial business, we bought the assets of a company called LeanTec that allows us to do software for auto body shops. So parts management through software for auto body shops. So that's starting to take hold and Mike Vale and his team have done a nice job there. And Mike Roman mentioned in his opening remarks, the collaboration we have with Microsoft, where we announced the digital Post-it note in collaboration with Microsoft. So you're seeing digital play itself out in multiple places. I would say there's a lot more opportunity for us in the future in this area.

然後，如果你真的去數字產品和數字客戶，電子商務仍然是我們增長的一個重要領域。在安全和工業業務中，我們購買了一家名為 LeanTec 的公司的資產，該公司允許我們為汽車修理廠開發軟件。因此，通過汽車修理廠的軟件進行零件管理。所以這開始佔據上風，邁克·維爾和他的團隊在那裡做得很好。 Mike Roman 在開場白中提到了我們與微軟的合作，我們宣布了與微軟合作的數字便利貼。因此，您會在多個地方看到數字遊戲本身。我想說，未來我們在這個領域有更多的機會。

Our next question comes from Stephen Tusa with JPMorgan Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通證券的 Stephen Tusa。

Can you just give some degree of color on whether you were like -- you don't have to give details on the price, but like just with the spread positive, neutral, negative this quarter?

你能否就你是否喜歡給出某種程度的顏色 - 你不必提供價格的細節，但就像本季度的利差是正面的，中性的，負面的？

Positive.

積極的。

And how do you expect that in fourth quarter? It was positive this quarter?

您對第四季度的預期如何？本季度是積極的？

That's right.

這是正確的。

And did that accelerate from last quarter?

這比上個季度加速了嗎？

To the extent where we saw more in areas where we saw more inflation, we were able to offset that with more price. So overall, I would say mid-single digits is where we were, Steve, on pricing.

如果我們在通脹更高的地區看到更多，我們就能夠以更高的價格抵消這一點。所以總的來說，我想說中個位數是我們在定價上的位置，史蒂夫。

Okay. Got it. That's great color. And then you guys kind of tweaked down the CapEx number a little bit. I know that number has been kind of growing over the last several years. Are you now kind of cresting on these major projects? And you mentioned digitization and automation in your -- with the prior question, but how do we think about that heading into '23, that CapEx number?

好的。知道了。這顏色真好。然後你們稍微調整了資本支出數字。我知道這個數字在過去幾年裡一直在增長。你現在對這些重大項目有興趣嗎？您在前面的問題中提到了數字化和自動化，但是我們如何看待進入 23 年的資本支出數字？

Yes. So as I said, we are still early planning '23. But in this case, the guide down, Steve, was just because of where we are with the length of supply chains. We have seen supply chain backlog or the cycle time of these go up anywhere from 12 weeks to 20 weeks, depending on the CapEx equipment that we are buying. And so just based on where we are in the quarter, we thought it was prudent to take it down to $175 million to $185 million. But all good projects and the projects that are falling into next year will continue to get completed because they are great projects. I just wish we would have got them done this year. Unfortunately, the supply chain just didn't help us.

是的。所以正如我所說，我們仍在早期計劃 '23。但在這種情況下，指導者史蒂夫只是因為我們在供應鍊長度方面所處的位置。我們已經看到供應鏈積壓或週期時間從 12 週增加到 20 週，具體取決於我們購買的資本支出設備。因此，僅根據本季度的情況，我們認為將其降至 1.75 億至 1.85 億美元是謹慎的做法。但是所有好的項目和即將進入明年的項目將繼續完成，因為它們是偉大的項目。我只是希望我們能在今年完成它們。不幸的是，供應鏈並沒有幫助我們。

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Maybe just the first question around the inventories outlook. So you took down your cash flow conversion guide for the year even with the CapEx reduction you just discussed. I think also, Monish, you had mentioned inventory is down sort of month-on-month in September. So help us understand kind of where do you think customer inventories and distributed inventories sit right now versus normal? And how much kind of destocking lies ahead for your customers and for 3M itself? How quickly should we see that cash flow conversion get back to 100%? Is it sort of late next year or you think next year as a whole, you could be there already?

也許只是關於庫存前景的第一個問題。因此，即使您剛剛討論了減少資本支出，您也取消了當年的現金流轉換指南。我也認為，Monish，您曾提到 9 月份的庫存環比下降。因此，請幫助我們了解您認為現在的客戶庫存和分佈式庫存與正常情況相比在哪裡？對您的客戶和 3M 本身而言，未來還有多少去庫存？我們應該多快看到現金流轉換回到 100%？是明年晚些時候，還是你認為明年作為一個整體，你可能已經在那裡了？

Yes. Julian, maybe I'll just touch on how we see inventory in the channel and with our customers. And it's maybe just a quick walk around the different business segments. Industrial channel inventories, they look like they're in pretty good shape. We saw, as you saw, strong broad-based growth. And so well aligned with that. Consumer electronics, the OEMs are working through some inventories as the demand weakens. I think automotive inventories continue to be still relatively low with the demand that they're seeing.

是的。朱利安，也許我會談談我們如何看待渠道和客戶的庫存。它可能只是快速瀏覽不同的業務領域。工業渠道庫存，看起來狀態不錯。正如您所見，我們看到了強勁的廣泛增長。非常符合這一點。隨著需求減弱，消費電子產品原始設備製造商正在處理一些庫存。我認為隨著他們看到的需求，汽車庫存仍然相對較低。

Health care overall, in line with the demand. We saw some softening, obviously, in oral care and the channels reacting there. So we're seeing some inventory pulled on. The big story at inventory probably is what you've heard from many other companies, the retailers working through their elevated inventory levels and navigating the kind of the shifts in consumer spending and the impact there. We're seeing that as we come out of Q3.

醫療保健總體來說，符合需求。顯然，我們在口腔護理和在那裡做出反應的渠道方面看到了一些軟化。因此，我們看到一些庫存增加。庫存方面的大故事可能是您從許多其他公司那裡聽到的，零售商正在努力解決庫存水平升高的問題，並駕馭消費者支出的變化及其影響。我們在第三季度結束時看到了這一點。

So that's kind of the external view. Maybe Monish can talk about kind of our -- how we map it internally.

所以這是一種外部觀點。也許 Monish 可以談談我們的——我們如何在內部映射它。

Yes, sure. So Julian, it's back to the same comments we made that the global supply chain and raw material environment continues to remain fluid and dynamic. And I think that's what's driving the inventory level. Even though we did take it down August through September, that's the start. One, we need to see the supply chain stabilize sustainably. And two is when you look at where we are at the end of Q3, we don't see those inventory levels coming down to the level we would have liked in a stable environment. And that's why we felt prudent to get it down to 85% to 95%. And the team is continuing to work inventory using data, data analytics, get a better demand planning.

是的，當然。所以朱利安，回到我們所說的相同的評論，全球供應鍊和原材料環境繼續保持流動和動態。我認為這就是推動庫存水平的原因。儘管我們確實在 8 月到 9 月將其取消，但這就是開始。一是供應鏈持續穩定。第二是當您查看我們在第三季度末的情況時，我們沒有看到這些庫存水平下降到我們在穩定環境中希望達到的水平。這就是為什麼我們謹慎地將其降低到 85% 到 95% 的原因。並且該團隊正在繼續使用數據進行庫存、數據分析，以獲得更好的需求規劃。

At the same time, we also look at better coordination between our demand plans and our supply plans and that's what the teams are working on. And I think we'll continue doing that in the long run.

同時，我們還考慮更好地協調我們的需求計劃和供應計劃，這就是團隊正在努力的方向。我認為從長遠來看，我們將繼續這樣做。

I would say in the long run, there's no reason why we can't be at 100% free cash flow conversion when you look at the cash flow that we generate and the opportunity that we have to continue to drive inventory down using data and data analytics.

我想說從長遠來看，當您查看我們產生的現金流以及我們必須繼續使用數據和數據降低庫存的機會時，我們沒有理由不能實現 100% 的自由現金流轉換分析。

And then just my follow-up would be around, you mentioned earlier some self-help measures, digitization and better data tracking. Just wondered in terms of kind of overall operating margins. I think 3M as a whole has been about sort of 21%, 22% range for 4 or 5 years now. It's been a couple of years since the last big kind of restructuring announcement in December 2020. Just wondering what the appetite was for maybe another round of that kind of big fixed cost out, particularly as the macro is a little bit softer. Or are you feeling pretty confident about operating leverage next year?

然後只是我的後續行動，你之前提到了一些自助措施、數字化和更好的數據跟踪。只是想知道整體營業利潤率的種類。我認為 3M 作為一個整體在 4 或 5 年內一直保持在 21%、22% 的範圍內。自 2020 年 12 月上一次宣布大規模重組以來已經過去了幾年。只是想知道可能會有什麼胃口可能會再次出現這種大的固定成本，尤其是在宏觀經濟稍微疲軟的情況下。還是您對明年的經營槓桿充滿信心？

Julian, as I talked about earlier, we are confident in our ability to respond to the changes in the macro, and we're always adjusting our businesses to meet the markets. And whether it's near term or in the future. And so we're going to continue to focus on productivity. That's a big part of the self-help for us, leveraging some of the capabilities Monish talked about to drive that. As supply chains improve and recover, we expect to be able to drive more self-help. And we'll continue to stay close to the end markets and the macro and take actions as is needed. We don't have a big plan to announce today, but we -- our model is to adjust the markets as we go.

朱利安，正如我之前所說，我們對應對宏觀變化的能力充滿信心，並且我們一直在調整我們的業務以適應市場。無論是近期還是未來。因此，我們將繼續關註生產力。這對我們來說是自助的重要組成部分，利用 Monish 談到的一些能力來推動這一點。隨著供應鏈的改善和恢復，我們希望能夠推動更多的自助。我們將繼續與終端市場和宏觀保持密切聯繫，並根據需要採取行動。我們今天沒有要宣布的大計劃，但我們 - 我們的模式是隨時調整市場。

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

So just going back to the exports, I think you mentioned, Monish, $5 billion, if I'm not mistaken. Just wondering, do your exports from the U.S. over index to a certain region? I think Latin America might be one, I think, maybe China as well. But any thoughts there in terms of concentrations of markets you're importing to? And then in terms of the currency effects, the transactional effect of that, are you able to kind of talk through to offset the FX impact?

所以回到出口，我想你提到了，莫尼什，50 億美元，如果我沒記錯的話。只是想知道，您從美國的出口是否超過了某個地區的指數？我認為拉丁美洲可能是其中之一，我想，也許中國也是。但是，就您要進口的市場集中度而言，您有什麼想法嗎？然後就貨幣效應和交易效應而言，您能否通過對話來抵消外匯影響？

Yes. Nigel, just to break down the exports a little bit. It's not exporting, it's really based on the capabilities that we've invested in the U.S. And it does serve all of those markets: Europe, Latin America, Asia, China. And so we're -- I wouldn't say we're over indexed anywhere. It's really a strategy of portfolio and where we produce and while we're regionally capable for our businesses everywhere around the world, I mean a majority of what we sell in each region of the world, we produce in region. There are some parts of our portfolio that we don't need to have capacity in order to we have the demand for every region and so we'll export out of the U.S. And there's a balance around the world. You'll see some over-indexing in the electronics manufacturing to Asia and China, of course. But more broadly, it's balanced across the regions of the world.

是的。奈傑爾，只是為了稍微分解一下出口。它不是出口，它實際上是基於我們在美國投資的能力。它確實服務於所有這些市場：歐洲、拉丁美洲、亞洲、中國。所以我們 - 我不會說我們在任何地方都被過度索引了。這實際上是一種投資組合戰略，也是我們在哪裡生產的戰略，雖然我們在全球範圍內為我們的業務提供區域能力，但我的意思是，我們在世界每個地區銷售的大部分產品都是在該地區生產的。我們的產品組合中的某些部分不需要具備產能才能滿足每個地區的需求，因此我們將出口到美國之外，並且在全球範圍內保持平衡。當然，您會看到電子製造業對亞洲和中國的過度指數化。但更廣泛地說，它在世界各地是平衡的。

And the pricing, are you able to offset the price?

而定價，你能抵消價格嗎？

Yes. So Nigel, the way most of these work is they go into intermediate into the production of another factory that's locally manufacturing the product. So you will see that cost increase. The team takes all of that into account when they get their pricing. They factor in the raw material, they factor in effects and then do what they can in that area to offset it. In total, as we've talked about, currently, we see effects of the strong dollar to continue to have a headwind on 2022 earnings, negative 4.5% on revenue, and it's nearly $0.50 on EPS for the year. So we do our best to try to manage it. At the end of the day, we can't eliminate such a strong dollar and we'll see how it plays out in 2023.

是的。所以奈傑爾，這些工作的大部分方式是他們進入另一家在當地生產產品的工廠的生產。所以你會看到成本增加。團隊在獲得定價時會考慮所有這些因素。他們考慮原材料，考慮效果，然後在該領域盡其所能來抵消它。總的來說，正如我們所談到的，目前，我們認為強勢美元的影響將繼續對 2022 年的收益產生不利影響，收入下降 4.5%，全年每股收益接近 0.50 美元。所以我們盡最大努力去管理它。歸根結底，我們無法消除如此強勢的美元，我們將看看它在 2023 年的表現如何。

Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。

Mike, I was hoping you could comment or expand your comments on what you've seen in October, especially on the consumer side. You said softer back-to-school, setting up for softer holiday. I'd also be interested in hearing if you see changes in the consumer purchasing and the mix, like more focused on lower price point products and might you lose any share in this mix down?

邁克，我希望您能就您在 10 月份看到的情況發表評論或擴展您的評論，尤其是在消費者方面。你說開學更輕鬆，為更輕鬆的假期做好準備。我也很想知道你是否看到消費者購買和組合的變化，比如更專注於低價產品，你是否會在這種組合中失去任何份額？

Yes, Deane, as we exited Q3, as I touched on, we saw what others are seeing. The retailers are working through elevated inventories. That was a trend we saw impacting. We saw the -- as Monish talked about, a softer back-to-school, which was maybe a separate market dynamic. There's been a shift in consumer spending from what we call hard lines. So where our products are in the categories that they're in, in retail markets and then into other areas like food, for example. And so you're seeing some shifting in consumer spending. That's part of the trend that we saw coming through Q3, and we see as we come out of the quarter into the rest of the year. And I would say the inflation continues to be driving some of those trends.

是的，迪恩，當我們退出第三季度時，正如我所提到的，我們看到了其他人所看到的。零售商正在努力解決庫存增加的問題。這是我們看到影響的趨勢。我們看到了——正如莫尼什所說的那樣，開學更加溫和，這可能是一個單獨的市場動態。消費者支出已經從我們所說的強硬路線轉變。因此，我們的產品屬於他們所在的類別，在零售市場，然後進入其他領域，例如食品。因此，您會看到消費者支出發生了一些變化。這是我們在第三季度看到的趨勢的一部分，當我們從本季度結束進入今年剩餘時間時，我們看到了這一趨勢。我會說通貨膨脹繼續推動其中的一些趨勢。

So that's -- really at a high level, that's what we're watching closely. We're close with our retail partners and watching each of the categories in consumer spending as we see those trends evolve.

所以這 - 真的在一個高水平，這就是我們正在密切關注的。我們與我們的零售合作夥伴保持密切聯繫，並觀察消費者支出的每個類別，因為我們看到這些趨勢正在演變。

Any share change?

有沒有股份變動？

No. We -- I think the dynamics that you're seeing in our organic growth in consumer is really about the consumer spending and the end markets. It's not about share change. We see our maintaining share and in some places, gaining share. We see some of the positions that we -- where we've invested in coming out of the pandemic and in areas in consumer like our home improvement, even though it's -- we saw some softening demands in home improvement in the U.S. in the third quarter, we see we're well positioned to continue to have strong share in that part of the market.

不，我們——我認為你在我們的消費者有機增長中看到的動態實際上是關於消費者支出和終端市場的。這與份額變化無關。我們看到我們保持份額，並在某些地方獲得份額。我們看到了一些我們在大流行中投資的職位，以及我們在家居裝修等消費者領域的投資，儘管如此，我們看到美國在第三季度對家居裝修的需求有所減弱季度，我們看到我們處於有利位置，可以繼續在該市場的那部分擁有強大的份額。

That concludes the question-and-answer portion of our conference call. I will now turn the call back over to Mike Roman for some closing comments.

我們電話會議的問答部分到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回給 Mike Roman 以徵求一些結束意見。

To wrap up, we continue to execute our strategies in a challenging environment while positioning 3M for the future through investments in growth, productivity and sustainability, along with active portfolio management. We will stay focused on taking care of our customers, driving growth and improving our operational performance. Thank you for joining us.

最後，我們將繼續在充滿挑戰的環境中執行我們的戰略，同時通過對增長、生產力和可持續性的投資以及積極的投資組合管理來為 3M 定位未來。我們將繼續專注於照顧我們的客戶、推動增長和提高我們的運營績效。感謝您加入我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。