3M (MMM) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 3M fourth quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded Tuesday, January 20, 2026.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。歡迎參加3M公司第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒您，本次通話正在錄音，2026 年 1 月 20 日，星期二。

I would now like to turn the call over to Chinmay Trivedi, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis at 3M.

現在，我想把電話交給 3M 公司投資者關係、財務規劃和分析高級副總裁 Chinmay Trivedi。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Bill Brown, 3M's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Anurag Maheshwari, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。各位早安，歡迎參加我們的季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我的是 3M 公司董事長兼執行長比爾布朗，以及我們的財務長阿努拉格馬赫什瓦里。

Bill and Anurag will make some formal comments, then we will take your questions. Please note that today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call are posted on the homepage of our investor relations website at 3m.com.

比爾和阿努拉格將正式發言，之後我們將回答大家的問題。請注意，今天的收益報告和本次電話會議的幻燈片簡報已發佈在我們投資者關係網站 3m.com 的首頁上。

Please turn to slide 2 and take a moment to read the forward-looking statements. During today's conference call, we'll be making certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M's future performance and financial results.

請翻到第二張投影片，花點時間閱讀前瞻性陳述。在今天的電話會議上，我們將發表一些預測性聲明，這些聲明反映了我們目前對 3M 未來業績和財務結果的看法。

These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-Q lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.

這些陳述是基於對未來事件的某些假設和預期，而這些假設和預期存在風險和不確定性。我們最新的 10-Q 表格第 1A 項列出了一些可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的最重要風險因素。

Please note throughout today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in the attachments to today's press release.

請注意，在今天的演示中，我們將多次提及一些非GAAP財務指標。有關非GAAP指標的調節表，請參閱今天新聞稿的附件。

With that, please turn to slide 3, and I will hand the call off to Bill. Bill?

接下來，請翻到第 3 張投影片，我會把電話交給比爾。帳單？

Thank you, Chinmay, and good morning, everyone. We delivered solid results in Q4, including organic growth of 2.2%, operating margin of 21.1%, earnings per share of $1.83 and free cash flow conversion of over 130%.

謝謝你，欽邁，大家早安。我們在第四季度取得了穩健的業績，包括2.2%的有機成長、21.1%的營業利潤率、1.83美元的每股盈餘以及超過130%的自由現金流轉換率。

These results capped a strong year with organic sales growth exceeding 2%, outperforming the macro environment and accelerating from 1.2% organic growth in 2024 and negative growth in 2023. This growth was underpinned by the strong commercial excellence foundation we've established and our focus on reinvigorating innovation.

這些業績為強勁的一年畫上了圓滿的句號，有機銷售增長超過 2%，跑贏了宏觀環境，並且比 2024 年 1.2% 的有機增長率和 2023 年的負增長加速增長。這一增長得益於我們建立的強大的卓越商業基礎以及我們對重振創新的重視。

We delivered significant margin expansion with a full year adjusted operating margin of 23.4%, up 200 basis points year-on-year at the high end of our guidance range and on top of over 200 basis points expansion in 2024.

我們實現了顯著的利潤率成長，全年調整後營業利潤率為 23.4%，比上年同期成長 200 個基點，達到我們預期範圍的高端，並且在此基礎上，預計 2024 年還將成長 200 多個基點。

Adjusted EPS grew double digits to $8.06 and free cash flow conversion was slightly above 100% for the year. Our 2025 financial results reflect the progress we're making, and we're tracking ahead of the medium-term commitments we made at the Investor Day last year.

調整後每股盈餘達到兩位數成長至 8.06 美元，全年自由現金流轉換率略高於 100%。我們的 2025 年財務表現反映了我們所取得的進展，並且我們正在朝著去年投資者日上做出的中期承諾穩步前進。

2025 was an important year for 3M where we implemented fundamental changes in the company, building a foundation for our future growth through commercial excellence and innovation. We previously described the three pillars of commercial excellence.

2025 年對 3M 來說是重要的一年，我們實施了公司內部的根本性變革，透過卓越的商業表現和創新，為未來的發展奠定了基礎。我們之前描述了商業卓越的三大支柱。

Improved sales effectiveness and pricing governance, stronger collaboration with channel partners, including joint business planning and cross-selling, and increased customer loyalty. And we're making progress across all of them.

提高銷售效率和定價管理水平，加強與通路合作夥伴的合作，包括聯合業務規劃和交叉銷售，並提高客戶忠誠度。我們在所有這些方面都取得了進展。

We've implemented greater rigor across our sales force and sales management, tightened pricing controls and developed over 600 joint business plans and closed on nearly $50 million of annualized cross-selling wins with a robust pipeline of opportunities.

我們加強了銷售團隊和銷售管理的嚴格性，收緊了定價控制，制定了 600 多項聯合業務計劃，並透過強大的銷售機會管道，實現了近 5000 萬美元的年度交叉銷售目標。

Innovation is the lifeblood of the company, and we successfully launched 284 new products in 2025, up 68% versus 2024, exceeding our initial target and more than double the launches in 2023. We expect this growth to continue with 350 launches in 2026. These new products are vital for our long-term growth and are already contributing to our top line.

創新是公司的生命線，我們在 2025 年成功推出了 284 款新產品，比 2024 年增長了 68%，超過了我們最初的目標，並且是 2023 年推出產品的兩倍多。我們預計這一成長動能將持續，到 2026 年將推出 350 款產品。這些新產品對我們的長期發展至關重要，並且已經為我們的收入成長做出了貢獻。

Sales from products launched in the last five years were up 23% in the full year, exceeding our high-teens target and exit Q4 at 44%, giving us momentum into 2026. Our New Product Vitality Index, or NPVI, a measure of the freshness of our portfolio, ended at 13%, about 2 points above where we started the year.

過去五年推出的產品的銷售額在全年增長了 23%，超過了我們接近 10% 的目標，第四季度末增長了 44%，為我們進入 2026 年奠定了良好的發展勢頭。我們的新產品活力指數（NPVI）是衡量我們產品組合新鮮度的指標，最終達到 13%，比年初高出約 2 個百分點。

It was also a year where we saw operational excellence become embedded across the enterprise as we drove better service levels for our customers and stronger operating rigor in our factories and across our enterprise functions.

在這一年裡，我們也見證了卓越營運融入整個企業，我們提高了客戶的服務水平，並在工廠和企業各個職能部門中加強了營運的嚴謹性。

And I've been describing our performance across three important metrics, OTIF, OEE and cost of poor quality. OTIF ended the year above 90%, 300 basis points above the prior year and the best we've achieved in decades, and we sustained that rate for seven months in a row.

我一直在描述我們在三個重要指標上的表現，即準時交付率 (OTIF)、設備綜合效率 (OEE) 和劣質成本。全年準時交貨率 (OTIF) 超過 90%，比上一年高出 300 個基點，是幾十年來我們取得的最佳成績，並且我們連續七個月保持了這一水平。

This improvement is translating into a better customer experience that's helping us win shelf space and reduce churn. OEE, our asset utilization metric ended the year at about 63%, up over 300 basis points across assets covering 70% of production volume.

這項改進正在轉化為更好的客戶體驗，幫助我們贏得貨架空間並降低客戶流失率。OEE（我們的資產利用率指標）在年底達到約 63%，在佔生產總量 70% 的資產中提高了 300 多個基點。

Cost of poor quality also improved considerably last year and is now at 6% of cost of goods down 100 basis points year-on-year. We're focused on key areas of inefficiency like frequent or ineffective changeovers and late detection and material defects, leading to raw material yield loss, scrap and quality credits issued to customers.

去年劣質產品的成本也大幅下降，目前佔商品成本的 6%，較去年同期下降 100 個基點。我們專注於效率低下的關鍵領域，例如頻繁或無效的換型、延遲發現材料缺陷，這些都會導致原材料產量損失、廢料產生以及向客戶發放品質信用額度。

We're leveraging Kaizen events, visual inspection systems, automation solutions and AI-enabled models to optimize changeovers to improve quality with a target of 5.4% cost of quality in 2026 and less than 4% over time.

我們正在利用改善活動、視覺檢測系統、自動化解決方案和人工智慧模型來優化換型，以提高質量，目標是到 2026 年將質量成本降低到 5.4%，並隨著時間的推移降低到 4% 以下。

Meanwhile, we continue to deploy capital effectively for our shareholders returning $4.8 billion through dividends and buybacks in the year, progressing well in our commitment to return $10 billion to shareholders as part of our multiyear capital allocation strategy.

同時，我們繼續有效地為股東部署資本，今年透過股利和股票回購返還了 48 億美元，在實現多年資本配置策略中向股東返還 100 億美元的承諾方面取得了良好進展。

The key to making this all work in the long run is our relentless focus on building a performance culture and delivering excellence everywhere, every day. This means greater speed and urgency, a deeper sense of accountability, challenging the status quo and finding ways to get better every day in the spirit of continuous improvement.

從長遠來看，這一切成功的關鍵在於我們堅持不懈地致力於打造績效文化，並在各個方面、每一天都追求卓越。這意味著要有更快的速度和更迫切的行動力，更強的責任感，挑戰現狀，並本著持續改進的精神，尋找每天進步的方法。

Our performance is a direct result of the cultural and operational changes we're driving across the enterprise that improve how we develop, produce and deliver products and build a strong foundation for the future.

我們的業績直接得益於我們在整個企業範圍內推動的文化和營運變革，這些變革改進了我們開發、生產和交付產品的方式，並為未來奠定了堅實的基礎。

Slide 4 is a chart we've used for the past few quarters, connecting macro trends to our organic growth. The macro remained soft and largely unchanged from Q3. But due to our strong execution, we've outperformed.

第 4 張投影片是我們過去幾季一直在使用的圖表，它將宏觀趨勢與我們的自然成長聯繫起來。宏觀經濟依然疲軟，與第三季基本持平。但由於我們執行力強，我們取得了優異的成績。

General industrial, safety and electronics, collectively about 65% of our business came in better than expected with exceptional year-on-year strength in the second half in electrical markets. Aerospace and self-contained breathing apparatus, all of which were up low double digits.

一般工業、安全和電子產業合計約占我們業務的 65%，這些產業的表現優於預期，其中下半年電氣市場較去年同期成長尤為強勁。航空航太和自給式呼吸器，所有這些領域的佔比都達到了兩位數的低點。

Abrasives, industrial adhesives and tapes and electronics were all up mid-single digits. Abrasives accelerating from low single digits in the first half, IATD holding steady through the year, and electronics not softening as previously anticipated.

磨料、工業用黏合劑和膠帶以及電子產品均實現了個位數中段的成長。磨料需求從上半年的個位數低點加速成長，IATD需求全年保持穩定，電子產品需求沒有像之前預期的那樣疲軟。

Auto and auto aftermarket remained soft as expected, while our consumer segment and roofing granules business were weaker than expected. Despite the macro headwind, organic sales growth accelerated to 2.7% in the second half from 1.5% in the first due to the breadth of our portfolio and our strong execution.

正如預期的那樣，汽車及汽車售後市場仍然疲軟，而我們的消費品業務和屋頂顆粒業務則比預期更為疲軟。儘管面臨宏觀經濟逆風，但由於我們產品組合的廣泛性和我們強有力的執行，下半年有機銷售成長從上半年的 1.5% 加速至 2.7%。

Turning to our outlook on slide 5. Our team's constancy of purpose and execution rigor allowed us to finish 2025 strong, and we're carrying that momentum forward into 2026.

接下來我們來看看投影片5的展望。我們團隊始終如一的目標和嚴謹的執行力使我們得以在 2025 年取得佳績，我們將這種勢頭延續到 2026 年。

This year, we expect organic sales growth of approximately 3%, adjusted operating margin expansion of 70 to 80 basis points and earnings per share of $8.50 to $8.70 and free cash flow conversion greater than 100%.

今年，我們預計有機銷售額將成長約 3%，調整後營業利潤率提高 70 至 80 個基點，每股收益為 8.50 至 8.70 美元，自由現金流轉換率超過 100%。

We're planning for the macro to be similar to 2025, but it's still early to put too much weight on market forecasts.

我們預期宏觀經濟將與 2025 年類似，但現在過度依賴市場預測還為時過早。

We expect most of our industrial businesses to continue to perform well in '26 with watch items, including the pace and timing of a US consumer recovery, auto build rates especially in geographies where we have higher content and consumer electronics.

我們預計，2026 年我們的大部分工業業務將繼續表現良好，包括手錶業務（包括美國消費者復甦的速度和時機）、汽車生產率（尤其是在我們擁有較高零件的地區）以及消費性電子產品。

While we will closely monitor macro trends, we're going to continue to execute our game plan and control the controllables. Lastly, I want to turn your attention to slide 6, which is the framework by which will create value for shareholders over time.

儘管我們會密切關注宏觀趨勢，但我們將繼續執行我們的策略計劃，並控制可控因素。最後，我想請大家注意第 6 張投影片，其中闡述了公司如何隨著時間的推移為股東創造價值。

The 3 phases aren't net to be sequential, but evolve together with shifting emphasis, they build on what we outlined at Investor Day and reflect how we view these elements as interconnected and essential to building a stronger company operationally and financially.

這三個階段並非按順序進行，而是隨著重點的轉移而共同發展，它們建立在我們投資者日上概述的內容之上，並反映了我們如何看待這些要素之間的相互聯繫，以及它們對於在營運和財務上建立更強大的公司至關重要。

It started with a back-to-basics focus on fundamentals approach, which is all about building a sustainable foundation. I've been talking to you about these initiatives and how we track them since I joined 3M 21 months ago, and did so again today.

它以回歸基礎為核心，注重基本功，旨在建立永續發展的基礎。自從我 21 個月前加入 3M 以來，我一直在和你們談論這些舉措以及我們如何追蹤它們，今天我又再次談到了這些舉措。

These core elements are focused on commercial and innovation excellence, operational excellence and reinvigorating our culture with accountability and agility creating a solid platform from which to grow.

這些核心要素著重於商業​​和創新卓越、營運卓越，並透過責任感和敏捷性重振我們的文化，從而創造一個堅實的發展平台。

As we gained confidence in our execution in this foundational stage, we're beginning to shift our emphasis to the next phase of value creation, which is more transformational in nature.

隨著我們對基礎階段的執行力越來越有信心，我們開始將重點轉移到價值創造的下一個階段，這個階段本質上更具變革性。

Like we previewed at Investor Day, this phase includes reengineering the structural cost base that underpins our supply chain network and business processes, simplifying and standardizing core activities and embedding an AI-first mentality as we shift from a holding company model to an integrated operating company.

正如我們在投資者日上預告的那樣，這一階段包括重新設計支撐我們供應鏈網絡和業務流程的結構性成本基礎，簡化和標準化核心活動，並在我們從控股公司模式向一體化運營公司轉變的過程中，融入人工智能優先的理念。

We described this program at a high level last quarter as a thoughtful strategic long-term effort pace at the ability of the team to execute well. Transformation also includes proactive steps on risk reduction and effectively managing the litigation docket.

上個季度，我們從宏觀層面描述了該計劃，稱其為深思熟慮的策略性長期努力，其速度取決於團隊的執行能力。轉型還包括採取積極措施降低風險和有效管理訴訟案件。

Any time we can take care of risk at an appropriate price and with suitable protections, we'll be prepared to act like we did last year with the state of New Jersey.

只要我們能夠以合適的價格和適當的保障措施來應對風險，我們就會像去年對待新澤西州那樣採取行動。

And as our organic machine begins to turn faster, and our risk profile comes down, we'll be prepared to execute on our portfolio management strategy to pivot the company towards higher growth and margin potential priority verticals that help us accelerate value creation for the company.

隨著我們有機成長的步伐加快，風險狀況下降，我們將做好準備執行投資組合管理策略，使公司轉向成長和利潤潛力更高的優先垂直領域，以幫助我們加速為公司創造價值。

This is a multiyear journey and progress won't be linear. But with a successful 2025 behind us, we're accelerating the transformation of 3M and building the runway for performance beyond 2027.

這是一個需要多年時間才能完成的過程，進展不會一帆風順。但隨著 2025 年的成功過去，我們正在加速 3M 的轉型，並為 2027 年以後的業績奠定基礎。

The 3M team is energized and motivated, and I want to thank them for the dedication and focus on delivering improvement day after day. And with that, I'll turn it over to Anurag to share the details of the quarter. Anurag?

3M團隊充滿活力和動力，我要感謝他們日復一日地為進步所付出的奉獻和專注。接下來，我將把麥克風交給阿努拉格，讓他來分享本季的詳細情況。阿努拉格？

Thank you, Bill. Turning to slide 7. We had a strong finish to the year across all financial metrics. We delivered another quarter of sales growth above macro continued margin expansion, strong earnings growth and robust cash flow generation.

謝謝你，比爾。翻到第7張投影片。我們各項財務指標均取得了強勁的年終成績。我們實現了連續第二季高於宏觀水準的銷售成長，利潤率持續擴張，獲利強勁成長，現金流強勁。

Starting with top line. In a continued muted environment, we delivered organic sales growth of 2.2% driven by our commercial excellence initiatives and new product launches.

首先從第一行開始。在市場環境持續低迷的情況下，我們憑藉卓越的商業舉措和新產品發布，實現了 2.2% 的有機銷售成長。

The growth was driven by strength in safety, electronics and general industrial, which more than offset the softness in consumer, roofing granules and auto markets. All three of our business segments delivered sustained order momentum, which contributed to a higher ending backlog compared to last year, giving us confidence as we go into 2026.

安全、電子和一般工業領域的強勁表現推動了成長，足以抵消消費品、屋頂顆粒和汽車市場的疲軟。我們所有三個業務部門都實現了持續的訂單成長勢頭，這使得我們最終的訂單積壓量比去年有所增加，也讓我們對2026年充滿信心。

Fourth quarter adjusted operating margins were 21.1%, up 140 basis points and operating profit increased double digits or $125 million driven by continued disciplined operational performance.

第四季調整後營業利潤率為 21.1%，成長 140 個基點；營業利潤達到兩位數成長，達到 1.25 億美元，主要得益於持續穩健的營運表現。

This included a $275 million benefit from volume growth, broad-based productivity and lower restructuring costs partially offset by approximately $50 million of growth investments and headwind of $100 million from gross tariff impact and stranded costs.

這其中包括銷售成長、廣泛提高生產力以及降低重組成本帶來的 2.75 億美元收益，但部分被約 5,000 萬美元的成長投資以及 1 億美元的關稅影響和擱淺成本帶來的不利影響所抵消。

Collectively, this contributed $0.17 to earnings, which was partially offset by $0.02 from non-operational below-the-line items. Our strong operating performance resulted in adjusted EPS of $1.83, an increase of 9% and exceeded the top end of our guidance range.

總計這為收益貢獻了 0.17 美元，但被非經營性線下專案產生的 0.02 美元部分抵消。我們強勁的營運業績使調整後每股收益達到 1.83 美元，成長 9%，超過了我們預期範圍的上限。

I also want to mention that we took a $55 million charge in the quarter as we continue to make transformation investments to redesign our manufacturing, distribution and business process services and locations.

我還想提一下，由於我們持續進行轉型投資，以重新設計我們的製造、分銷和業務流程服務及場所，本季度我們提列了 5500 萬美元的費用。

Similar to last quarter, these charges will be excluded from our adjusted results. Adjusted free cash flow in the quarter was $1.3 billion with a conversion of approximately 130% as we benefited from strong earnings growth and working capital efficiency.

與上季類似，這些費用將從我們調整後的業績中剔除。本季調整後的自由現金流為 13 億美元，轉換率約為 130%，這得益於強勁的獲利成長和營運資本效率。

Turning to slide 8. I will provide an overview of our business group performance for both the fourth quarter and full year 2025. First, in Safety and Industrial, we delivered another quarter of strong organic growth as we continue to gain traction on commercial excellence initiatives and realized benefits from new product launches.

翻到第8張幻燈片。我將概述我們業務集團 2025 年第四季和全年的業績。首先，在安全和工業領域，我們又實現了強勁的內生成長，因為我們在商業卓越計劃方面持續取得進展，並從新產品發布中獲得了收益。

Fourth quarter organic sales increased 3.8%, driven by strong performance in safety, which grew high single digits through enhanced channel engagement and new product launches. Industrial adhesives and tapes growth accelerated to high single digits as we continue to win share globally in electronics and general industrial from new product introductions and improved manufacturing throughput.

第四季有機銷售額成長 3.8%，主要得益於安全產品的強勁表現，該產品透過加強通路互動和推出新產品實現了接近兩位數的成長。隨著新產品的推出和生產效率的提高，我們不斷在全球電子和一般工業領域贏得市場份額，工業黏合劑和膠帶的成長速度加快至接近兩位數。

Abrasives continue to improve, delivering another quarter of mid-single-digit growth, benefiting from sustained focus on sales force effectiveness.

磨料業務持續改善，連續第二季實現個位數中段成長，這得益於對銷售團隊效率的持續關注。

Collectively, this strong growth more than offset known weakness in automotive aftermarket and incremental weakness in roofing granules due to the slow housing market and weak consumer sentiment. For the full year, SIBG grew 3.2% with growth accelerating from 2.5% in the first half to 3.9% in the second half on the back of strong execution.

總體而言，這種強勁的成長足以抵消汽車售後市場的疲軟以及由於房地產市場低迷和消費者信心不足而導致的屋頂顆粒市場日益疲軟的影響。全年來看，SIBG 成長了 3.2%，在強勁的執行力推動下，成長速度從上半年的 2.5% 加快到下半年的 3.9%。

Turning to Transportation and Electronics. Fourth quarter organic sales increased 2.4%, driven by continued momentum in electronics and aerospace. These gains more than offset weakness in auto, which in our organizational structure includes commercial vehicles, which was down high teens in the quarter.

轉向交通運輸和電子產品領域。第四季有機銷售額成長2.4%，主要得益於電子和航空航太領域的持續成長動能。這些成長足以抵消汽車業務的疲軟，而汽車業務在我們的組織結構中包括商用車業務，該業務在本季下降了近10%。

Electronics continued to gain share, supported by commercial excellence initiatives and strong demand for our film technologies and optically clear adhesives. We also expanded our presence in the mainstream market by partnering with leading consumer electronic brands to deliver solutions aligned with their portfolio needs.

在商業卓越舉措和市場對我們薄膜技術和光學透明黏合劑的強勁需求的支持下，電子產品市場份額持續成長。我們也透過與領先的消費性電子品牌合作，提供符合其產品組合需求的解決方案，從而擴大了我們在主流市場的業務。

Aerospace delivered another strong quarter given by growing demand for space materials and continued strength in defense related markets. We have seen sustained growth in this portfolio where sales have doubled over the last four years.

受航太材料需求成長和國防相關市場持續強勁的推動，航空航太產業迎來了一個強勁的季度。我們看到該投資組合實現了持續成長，過去四年銷售額翻了一番。

For 2025, Transportation and Electronics grew 2%, with second half growth of 3% versus the first half growth of 1%, driven by continued focus on commercial excellence and the ramp-up of new product launches. Finally, consumer fourth quarter organic sales were down 2.2%.

2025 年，交通運輸和電子產品產業成長了 2%，下半年成長了 3%，而上半年僅成長了 1%，這主要得益於對卓越商業的持續關注和新產品上市的加速推進。最後，第四季消費者有機銷售額下降了 2.2%。

For the first nine months of the year, the business was up 0.3%, and we had expected the fourth quarter to be similar, but weaker consumer sentiment and sluggish retail traffic in the US resulted in lower point-of-sale trends on discretionary categories where we compete.

今年前九個月，公司業務成長了 0.3%，我們原本預計第四季度也會如此，但美國消費者信心疲軟和零售客流量低迷導致我們在非必需消費品類別中的銷售點趨勢下降。

This market weakness was partially offset by new product introductions, increased advertising and promotional investments in the US and overall business growth in Asia and Latin America. As a result of the fourth quarter weakness, CBG revenue declined by 0.3% for the full year.

市場疲軟的部分原因被新產品的推出、美國廣告和促銷投入的增加以及亞洲和拉丁美洲的整體業務成長所抵消。受第四季疲軟的影響，CBG全年營收下降了0.3%。

On slide 9 is a summary of the full year 2025 performance. Overall, a strong fourth quarter capped a successful 2025 with organic sales growth of 2.1%, margin expansion of 200 basis points and EPS increase of 10% and free cash flow slightly above 100%.

第 9 頁是 2025 年全年業績的總結。總體而言，強勁的第四季度為成功的 2025 年畫上了圓滿的句號，有機銷售額增長 2.1%，利潤率擴大 200 個基點，每股收益增長 10%，自由現金流略高於 100%。

Sales growth strengthened from 1.5% in the first half to 2.7% in the second exceeding the 2.5% we mentioned in our July earnings call. This momentum underscores the impact of our commercial excellence initiatives, enhanced service levels and successful new product launches positioning us well to accelerate our performance going forward.

銷售成長從上半年的 1.5% 增強到下半年的 2.7%，超過了我們在 7 月財報電話會議上提到的 2.5%。這一勢頭凸顯了我們卓越商業舉措、提升服務水準和成功推出新產品所帶來的影響，使我們能夠更好地加速未來的業績成長。

By geography, all areas delivered growth in the year. China grew mid-single digit from strength in general industrial and electronics bonding solutions supported by a strong focus on key accounts. This momentum more than offset the fourth quarter shift in smartphone manufacturing from China to other parts of Asia.

從地理位置來看，所有地區在這一年都實現了成長。中國市場在一般工業和電子黏接解決方案領域的強勁表現以及對重點客戶的重點關注下，實現了中等個位數的成長。這一成長勢頭足以抵消第四季度智慧型手機製造從中國轉移到亞洲其他地區的影響。

In the rest of Asia, we grew low single digit led by strong performance in India, which grew mid-teens on account of progress and commercial excellence across all businesses. After a couple of years of decline, Europe grew low single digits due to strength in General Industrial and Safety, which more than offset the weakness in consumer and auto aftermarket.

在亞洲其他地區，我們實現了個位數低成長，這主要得益於印度市場的強勁表現，印度市場實現了兩位數中段的成長，這得益於所有業務的進步和卓越的商業表現。在經歷了幾年的下滑之後，由於通用工業和安全行業的強勁表現，歐洲實現了個位數低成長，足以抵消消費品和汽車售後市場的疲軟。

Despite soft consumer and auto aftermarket, the US grew low single digit for the year on the back of commercial excellence initiatives in the general industrial and safety businesses. Productivity initiatives drove strong margin expansion every quarter in '25 resulting in full year operating margins of 23.4%.

儘管消費和汽車售後市場疲軟，但由於一般工業和安全業務的商業卓越舉措，美國經濟今年仍實現了個位數低成長。2025 年，生產力提升措施推動了每季利潤率的強勁成長，全年營業利潤率達到 23.4%。

Operating profit growth of approximately $650 million at constant currency was driven by $200 million from volume growth and $550 million of net productivity across supply chain and G&A.

以固定匯率計算，營業利潤成長約 6.5 億美元，其中 2 億美元來自銷售成長，5.5 億美元來自供應鏈和一般及行政管理費用的淨生產力提升。

This was partially offset by $100 million in headwinds driven by $185 million in growth and productivity investments in addition to ongoing stranded cost and tariff impacts with year-on-year lower restructuring costs.

但這部分被 1 億美元的不利因素所抵消，這些不利因素包括 1.85 億美元的成長和生產力投資，以及持續的擱淺成本和關稅影響，同時重組成本較去年同期下降。

The strong operational performance contributed $0.96 of earnings, which was offset by approximately $0.20 of non-operational items for a total EPS of $8.06. This 10% EPS growth was better than our expectations and above the initial guidance at the start of the year.

強勁的營運業績貢獻了0.96美元的收益，但被約0.20美元的非營運項目所抵消，最終每股收益為8.06美元。這一10%的每股收益成長優於我們的預期，也高於年初的初步指引。

And we returned $4.8 billion to shareholders in '25, including $1.6 billion in dividends and $3.2 billion through gross share repurchases. Overall, 2025 laid the foundation for a strong operating culture, grounded in excellence, accountability and a faster operating tempo, enabling us to overcome external factors to drive profitable growth.

2025 年，我們向股東返還了 48 億美元，其中包括 16 億美元的股利和 32 億美元的股票回購總額。總體而言，2025 年為建立強大的營運文化奠定了基礎，這種文化以卓越、責任和更快的營運節奏為基礎，使我們能夠克服外部因素，從而實現獲利成長。

We have momentum as we enter 2026, and I will walk you through the guidance on slide 10. We expect organic sales growth to be approximately 3% and earnings per share ranging from $8.50 to $8.70 and free cash flow conversion of greater than 100%. We expect sales to accelerate for all business groups.

進入 2026 年，我們勢頭強勁，接下來我將帶您了解第 10 頁投影片上的指導原則。我們預計有機銷售成長約為 3%，每股收益在 8.50 美元至 8.70 美元之間，自由現金流轉換率超過 100%。我們預計所有業務部門的銷售額都將加速成長。

SIBG and TEBG grew 2.7% combined in 2025, and we expect this growth rate will accelerate in 2026, supported by ongoing commercial excellence initiatives strong service levels and continued new product introductions, and we expect consumer to return to growth in 2026.

2025 年 SIBG 和 TEBG 合計成長 2.7%，我們預計在持續的商業卓越舉措、強大的服務水準和不斷推出的新產品的支持下，這一增長率將在 2026 年加速，我們預計消費者將在 2026 年恢復成長。

The business groups combined will expand margins over $450 million or 100 basis points, including $875 million from volume growth and net productivity across supply chain and G&A. This will be partially offset by headwinds from PFAS stranded costs and tariff impacts as well as an increase in growth and productivity investments to $225 million.

合併後的業務集團將使利潤率提高 4.5 億美元或 100 個基點，其中包括來自供應鏈和一般及行政管理部門的銷售成長和淨生產力提高的 8.75 億美元。PFAS擱淺成本和關稅影響帶來的不利影響，以及成長和生產力投資增加至2.25億美元，將部分抵銷上述影響。

This is on top of the incremental investment over the past two years, bringing the total investment from 2024 to over $0.5 billion. Corporate and other income will be lower by $50 million to $75 million or 20 to 30 basis points, largely from wind-down of transition services agreements related to Solventum.

加上過去兩年的增量投資，到 2024 年的總投資將超過 5 億美元。公司及其他收入將減少 5,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元，或 20 至 30 個基點，主要原因是與 Solventum 相關的過渡服務協議終止。

Overall, we expect total company income to grow by $400 million at the midpoint of our 70 to 80 basis points margin expansion guidance.

整體而言，我們預計公司總營收將成長 4 億美元，達到我們 70 至 80 個基點利潤率擴張預期的中位數。

Adjusted free cash flow conversion is expected to be greater than 100%, driven by strong operating income growth and a focus on working capital management and we plan to deploy capital effectively, including a gross share repurchase of approximately $2.5 billion in 2026.

經調整後的自由現金流轉換率預計將超過 100%，這得益於強勁的營業收入成長和對營運資本管理的重視。我們計劃有效部署資本，包括在 2026 年回購約 25 億美元的股票。

Slide 11 provides a look at earnings growth drivers which is primarily driven by strong operations consistent with our 2025 performance. Regarding cadence, we expect the rate of sales growth to increase through the year, with margin and EPS equal between the two halves.

第 11 頁展示了獲利成長的驅動因素，這主要得益於與我們 2025 年業績相符的強勁營運。關於成長節奏，我們預計全年銷售成長率將逐步提高，上下半年的利潤率和每股盈餘將保持相等。

In the first quarter, the sales growth at SIBG and TEBG combined is expected to be higher than 3%. And we will continue to monitor the recovery in our consumer business.

第一季度，SIBG 和 TEBG 的合併銷售成長預計將超過 3%。我們將繼續關註消費者業務的復甦情況。

Volume, productivity and slight favorability in FX will more than offset the stranded costs, gross tariff impact and increase in investments, resulting in high single-digit year-on-year earnings growth. Before we open the call for questions, turning to slide 12, I want to take a minute to highlight the progress we have made so far.

銷售、生產力和匯率的輕微有利因素將足以抵消擱淺成本、關稅總額影響和投資增加，從而實現高個位數的年收益成長。在正式開始提問環節之前，請翻到第 12 張投影片，我想花一分鐘時間重點介紹我們目前的進展。

We are trending ahead of our Investor Day targets we laid out a year ago. Our organic sales growth is accelerating due to our investment in growth and commitment to commercial excellence and innovation.

我們目前的業績已經超過了一年前投資者日設定的目標。由於我們對成長的投入以及對卓越商業和創新的承諾，我們的有機銷售成長正在加速。

Our relentless focus on operational excellence is resulting in strong operating margin expansion and sustained earnings growth despite pressures such as soft macro, tariffs and stranded costs. We continue to be a consistent generator of cash that allows us to effectively return capital to shareholders while maintaining a healthy balance sheet.

儘管面臨宏觀經濟疲軟、關稅和擱淺成本等壓力，但我們對卓越營運的不懈追求，帶來了強勁的營業利潤率擴張和持續的獲利成長。我們持續創造現金流，從而能夠有效地向股東返還資本，同時保持健康的資產負債表。

Not too long ago, our growth rates were trailing the macro. And now we are progressing ahead of our medium-term commitments of $1 billion growth over macro and a 25% operating margin by 2027.

不久前，我們的成長率還落後於宏觀經濟。現在，我們在實現中期目標方面取得了進展，即到 2027 年實現宏觀經濟成長 10 億美元，營業利潤率達到 25%。

While we are focused on executing these commitments, we are also broadening our horizons to the out years, ensuring our transformation efforts position the company not only for the short term but for sustained profitable growth well past 2027.

在專注於履行這些承諾的同時，我們也正在拓寬視野，展望未來幾年，確保我們的轉型努力不僅使公司在短期內，而且在 2027 年以後都能實現持續盈利增長。

This strong performance is a credit to the expertise and the commitment of the 3M team, and I thank them for their hard work and dedication. With that, let's open the call for questions.

這項優異成績歸功於 3M 團隊的專業技能和敬業精神，我感謝他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。接下來，我們開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

（操作說明）Jeff Sprague，Vertical Research。

I guess two for me, one longer term and one shorter term. Bill, just back to your slide 6, as you said, all these things are going on to varying degrees simultaneously. But the pivot to priority verticals sort of jumps out to me, obviously, not the first time we've heard that.

我想我得有兩個，一個長期的，一個短期的。比爾，回到你的第 6 張幻燈片，正如你所說，所有這些事情都在不同程度上同時發生。但轉向優先垂直領域這一點顯然讓我眼前一亮，這顯然不是我們第一次聽到這種說法。

But I just wonder if you could put into context, how much of that pivot is sort of addition by subtraction versus sort of investment focus growing and bulking up sort of the areas that you view as the priority? And maybe sort of what percent of your current revenue base or business base would you say is in that priority bucket?

但我只是想知道，您能否具體說明一下，這種轉型有多少是透過減法實現的增加，又有多少是透過投資重點來發展和壯大您認為優先的領域？那麼，您認為目前您的收入或業務基礎中，有多少百分比屬於優先考慮的範疇呢？

So Jeff, great question. So we've been talking about our priority verticals going back a year, actually to February of last year. It's a little bit north of 60%, it's growing, frankly, because of the investments we're making.

傑夫，問得好。所以，我們討論優先發展領域的歷史可以追溯到一年前，實際上從去年二月就開始了。略高於 60%，坦白說，由於我們的投資，這個數字還在增加。

And I put it in two pieces. One, we spent the last 1.5 years focusing a lot of our internal investment dollars on the priority verticals. And now probably 80% of what we spend on R&D is aligned to NPI in the priority verticals.

我把它分成了兩個部分。第一，在過去的1.5年裡，我們將大量的內部投資資金集中投入優先垂直領域。現在，我們研發支出中約 80% 都用於優先垂直領域的新產品導入 (NPI)。

And of course, they are defined as ones that are growing faster where we have good margin potential as well in the business where technology brings differentiation and right to win. And that's been the pivot in the organization.

當然，它們指的是那些成長速度更快、利潤潛力更大的業務，在這些業務中，科技能夠帶來差異化優勢和勝利機會。這就是該組織轉型的機會。

Over time, as we think about what the portfolio is going to look like for us to get to a much better sustainable organic growth rate for the overall company, we've got to structurally adjust the portfolio, which means some pieces coming out and we've been talking about some of those pieces.

隨著時間的推移，當我們思考如何建立投資組合才能為公司整體實現更好的可持續有機成長率時，我們必須對投資組合進行結構性調整，這意味著要剝離一些業務，而我們一直在討論其中的一些業務。

We've said before, about 10% of our company would be in places that are more commodity like, and we'll probably think about what we want to do with those businesses over time.

我們之前說過，我們公司大約 10% 的業務會集中在商品化程度較高的領域，隨著時間的推移，我們可能會考慮如何處理這些業務。

But as we do that, we'll be pivoting both organically as well as inorganically towards those priority verticals, which is the nature of that chart. It shows that that's an evolution over time. And again, it's not necessarily sequential, but that's kind of the overall flow, how we think about creating value at 3M.

但同時，我們將透過有機成長和非有機成長的方式，向這些優先垂直領域轉型，這就是該圖表的性質。這表明這是一個隨著時間推移而演變的過程。再次強調，這不一定是按順序進行的，但這大致就是我們在 3M 思考創造價值的整體流程。

Yes. And just on the very near term, the flat view on US IPI, it's kind of a tough slog out there, right? But your industrial businesses do seem to be performing well, right, abrasives and some of the adhesives Electrical businesses. So I guess there's some outgrowth there.

是的。就短期而言，美國工業生產指數（IPI）持平，前景堪憂，對吧？但你們的工業業務似乎表現良好，對吧？例如磨料、一些黏合劑和電氣業務。所以我覺得這方面還是有一些發展的。

But I guess just the nature of my question is just a little more color on how you see the year kind of starting out, Anurag gave a little bit of color, but did we start soft here in January? And do you see things sort of kind of picking up off a low base year as we exited the year.

但我想問的是，您認為今年開局如何？ Anurag 已經給了一些看法，但我們一月份的開局是否比較平淡？您是否看到情況在經歷了低迷的年初之後有所好轉？

Yes. So last year, I mean we, the exit rate was pretty solid and we, Anurag in his comments talked about the acceleration from about 2% to 3.6% across TEBG and SIBG as we went first half into the second half. Yes, IPI is softening, both in the US as well as in China, those important markets for us, certainly.

是的。所以去年，我的意思是，我們的退出率相當穩定，Anurag 在他的評論中談到，隨著上半年進入下半年，TEBG 和 SIBG 的退出率從大約 2% 加速到 3.6%。是的，無論是在美國還是中國，IPI 都在走軟，而這兩個市場對我們來說都非常重要。

But we do expect our overall industrial businesses to remain pretty solid. I pointed out a couple of watch areas. One is in auto builds. Auto builds were around 3.8% last year, a little weaker in Q4.

但我們預期公司整體工業業務將保持相當穩健。我指出了幾個需要注意的區域。其中之一是自動組裝。去年汽車產量成長約 3.8%，第四季略有下降。

A lot of it was China but overall, it will be, says right now, down 0.3% as much as you can believe the numbers and not so good across all of the regions. So that auto was a little bit softer. We have to watch that. Consumer electronics is looking a little bit more flattish in terms of the overall macro forecast.

其中很大一部分來自中國，但總體而言，目前來看，經濟將下降 0.3%（數據可信度不高），而且所有地區的經濟狀況都不太樂觀。所以那輛車的性能稍微柔和一些。我們必須注意這一點。從整體宏觀經濟預測來看，消費性電子產品市場似乎略顯疲軟。

Of course, we believe in our business, electronics will continue to grow. We still see that to be overall electronics up mid-single digits for the year. Of course, we were watching very carefully, which happened what happens in the US consumer market. Right now, it feels subdued.

當然，我們對自身業務充滿信心，電子產品產業將會持續成長。我們仍預期今年電子產品整體將實現個位數中段的成長。當然，我們一直在密切關注美國消費市場的發展。現在，氣氛比較沉悶。

We had a very good December, although Q4 came in down 2.2%. So it dropped the year to be negative for consumer, but December, we typically see the third month pretty good, but it was up double digits over the prior year in December.

我們12月份的業績非常好，儘管第四季下降了2.2%。因此，消費者全年業績下滑，但12月通常是第三個月，而且表現相當不錯，12月的業績比上年同期增長了兩位數。

And early in January, again, it's early this year. We're looking okay. So that's sort of the landscape, but I do see that even though IPI is coming down, our commercial excellence initiatives, our NPI initiatives, it's going to allow us to continue to outperform that macro, and we expect that to accelerate in '26 from what we experienced in '25.

今年一月初，時間確實還早。我們看起來還不錯。這就是目前的情況，但我確實看到，即使 IPI 正在下降，我們的商業卓越計劃和 NPI 計劃也將使我們能夠繼續超越宏觀經濟，我們預計 2026 年的成長速度將比 2025 年更快。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

Scott Davis，Melius Research。

I guess, I don't think you mentioned inventory levels, customer inventory levels in the prepared remarks. And just as we exited the 2025, what's your sense of where your customer inventory levels were or are I guess, now kind of point in reference kind of pre-COVID, post kind of the new normal versus kind of pre-COVID? Just a little color around that, I think, would be helpful.

我想，您在準備好的發言稿中沒有提到庫存水準、客戶庫存水準。就在我們告別 2025 年之際，您認為您的客戶庫存水準過去或現在處於什麼位置？我想以新冠疫情前、新常態後與新冠疫情前的情況作為參考點。我覺得，如果周圍加點顏色就更好了。

Sure. Good question. So on the industrial channel, No, it's pretty normal 60 day range, a little bit more than that. But as we would expect it to be, as we were selling out in Q4, we do watch POS out of our channel partners, and they were selling through.

當然。問得好。所以工業通路的情況是，不，週期相當正常，大約 60 天，甚至可能略長一些。但正如我們所預期的那樣，由於我們在第四季度銷售一空，我們確實關注了通路合作夥伴的銷售點數據，他們的銷售情況也很好。

So even though we had good sales into the channel, we also saw good sales out of the channel. So pretty good actually on the industrial side, that's good.

所以，儘管我們通路內的銷售額很好，但通路外的銷售額也很好。所以工業方面其實相當不錯，很好。

On the consumer side, on the CBG side, it was a little bit elevated early in the quarter, but we had very strong growth in December and inventory started to come down and normalize, still a little bit elevated as we exited the year, but not as concerning as we were sort of at the beginning of the quarter.

從消費者方面來看，從 CBG 方面來看，本季度初庫存略高，但我們在 12 月份實現了非常強勁的增長，庫存開始下降並恢復正常，雖然在年底時庫存仍然略高，但不如本季度初那麼令人擔憂。

So overall, industrial, pretty good, consumer getting normalized as we speak.

所以總的來說，工業領域相當不錯，消費領域也逐漸恢復正常。

Okay. Fair enough. And then, guys, what is the pricing strategy right now? I mean it kind of, when just listening to the prepared remarks, it sounds like new products is where you lean in on price or at least try to get a positive mix shift there.

好的。很公平。那麼，各位，目前的定價策略是什麼？我的意思是，從事先準備好的發言稿來看，似乎新產品階段應該注重價格，或至少要努力實現積極的產品組合轉變。

But is there also a pricing strategy around getting an annual bump up perhaps that maybe you didn't get historically, but going out with price increases on January 1, particularly where you're going through distribution.

但是，是否存在一種定價策略，即透過分銷管道，在 1 月 1 日進行年度漲價，而這在歷史上可能從未發生過。

So yes, good question. So for the year, we had expected to be about 70 basis points last year, stepping up first half, second half as we are covering some of the tariff headwind. We saw that in the third quarter.

是的，問得好。因此，我們預計去年全年約為 70 個基點，上半年和下半年逐步提高，以應對部分關稅不利因素。我們在第三季就看到了這一點。

And the fourth quarter was a little bit lighter because of the consumer market and the promos and discounts that we provided there to stimulate that business. So overall, we are a little lighter on pricing last year than we had expected, but still very solid.

第四季由於消費市場以及我們為刺激業務而提供的促銷和折扣，導致銷售額略有下降。總的來說，我們去年的定價比預期略低，但仍然非常穩健。

The place where we get pricing, generally speaking, is in SIBG, and that was solid, that remains strong. We continue to see good pricing movement here going into 2026. We expect it will be about 80 basis points more or less in 2026. A lot of it is SIBG. There's a couple of threads here.

一般來說，我們獲取價格資訊的地方是 SIBG，而且 SIBG 的價格一直很穩定，現在依然很強勁。我們認為，到 2026 年，這裡的定價將繼續保持良好勢頭。我們預計到 2026 年，這一數字將在 80 個基點左右。很多都是SIBG。這裡有兩個討論串。

One is we do continue to cover material cost inflation. Two, we continue to tighten down our pricing governance, making sure across all of the industrial businesses that when we give pricing discounts, we get the volume we'd expect in giving those discounts.

第一，我們會繼續應對材料成本上漲。第二，我們繼續加強定價管理，確保在所有工業業務中，當我們提供價格折扣時，我們能夠獲得我們預期透過這些折扣獲得的銷售量。

And then third, as you pointed out, Scott, is the pricing we should expect to get when we're launching new products. This is an area of opportunity for us over the medium and longer term. I think we're okay on this, but we could be a lot better.

第三，正如你所指出的，史考特，是我們推出新產品時應該期望獲得的定價。從中長期來看，這對我們來說是一個充滿機會的領域。我覺得我們在這方面做得還可以，但可以做得更好。

There's pockets where we are very thoughtful in pricing to value, but I would not say that today that that's over all of the NPI we're launching, and I think it's a long-term opportunity for the company.

在某些領域，我們會非常注重定價與價值的平衡，但我不會說今天我們推出的所有新產品都遵循這項原則，我認為這對公司來說是一個長期的機會。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Maybe first off, I just wanted to understand the degree to which if any, there was a backend loading in the guide. It seems you were expecting about 6% EPS growth year-on-year in the first half, so not that different from the full year.

首先，我只是想了解一下該指南中是否存在後端加載，如果有的話，加載程度如何。看來您預期上半年每股盈餘年增約 6%，與全年相比並沒有太大差別。

Just wanted to check that and how you're starting out in the first quarter. Should we expect the consumer business to still be down, for example, and then that picks up steam through the year?

我只是想確認一下，以及你第一季的開局情況。例如，我們是否應該預期消費業務仍將保持低迷狀態，然後今年逐漸回升？

Thanks, Julian. Anurag here. So I would say in terms of EPS growth, we expect the first half and second half to be equal. So as I said in my prepared comments, the EPS will be equal between the first and second half, which implies similar growth rate as well.

謝謝你，朱利安。我是阿努拉格。因此，就每股盈餘成長而言，我們預計上半年和下半年將持平。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，上半年和下半年的每股盈餘將相等，這意味著成長率也將相似。

And if you look at what I said is in the SIBG, TEBG, given the exit rate, we do expect revenue to be over 3% in the first quarter.

如果你看看我剛才在SIBG、TEBG中提到的情況，考慮到退出率，我們預計第一季的營收將超過3%。

the CBG is an area we'll watch out. And you probably see that part of the revenue goal through the course of the year, but materially do not expect the rate of growth to be significantly different between the first half and the second half.

CBG 是我們將密切關注的領域。你可能會在一年中看到這部分收入目標的實現，但實際上不要指望上半年和下半年的成長率會有顯著差異。

And if I look at productivity as well, it's pretty even loaded across the four quarters. So I think as we sit here today, we feel that it's a fairly even loaded quarterly cadence for both revenue as well as EPS.

如果再從生產力角度來看，四個季度之間的生產力分佈相當均衡。所以我認為，就目前來看，無論是營收還是每股盈餘，季度節奏都相當均衡。

That's very helpful. And then just my follow-up would be around that sort of interplay and it's been touched on a couple of times, but between the macro and the self-help initiatives.

那很有幫助。然後，我的後續發言將圍繞著這種相互作用展開，雖然之前已經提到過幾次，但指的是宏觀層面和自助舉措之間的相互作用。

So when we're thinking about the guidance for a deceleration in IPI in the US this year, but an acceleration somewhat in 3M's own organic growth rate.

因此，當我們考慮今年美國 IPI 成長放緩的預期，但同時 3M 自身的有機成長率也會有所加快時。

It is our impression that that's really all self-help initiatives that you mentioned and the outgrowth for the acceleration in the second half of 2025 is your impression that was all self-help driven as well with nothing from the macro?

我們的印像是，您提到的那些確實都是自助舉措，而您認為2025年下半年的加速發展也是完全由自助舉措驅動的，與宏觀經濟無關？

Just to understand how much you're sort of putting on your own shoulders versus relying on the external environment for this year?

我只是想了解一下，今年你究竟有多少責任是自己承擔的，又有多少責任是依賴外在環境的？

So Julian, thanks for the question. Let me maybe frame it by just talking about a little more granularity, the $1 billion over macro. We talked about over, at the Investor Day, over the next three years and Anurag mentioned. In 2025, our growth came in at 2.1%. We look at the overall macro to be around 1.5 points.

朱利安，謝謝你的提問。或許我可以更具體地談談，像是宏觀層面上的 10 億美元。在投資者日上，我們討論了未來三年的發展，Anurag 也提到了這一點。2025年，我們的成長率為2.1%。我們認為整體宏觀情勢約為1.5個百分點。

That's IPI, GDP, with some sectors that were a bit weaker was where we see it. So we saw ourselves with about 60 basis points of outperformance versus the macro. If you just run the math, that gives you about $150 million.

這就是工業生產指數（IPI）和國內生產毛額（GDP）的情況，我們看到有些產業表現稍弱。因此，我們發現自身表現比宏觀經濟高出約 60 個基點。簡單計算一下，大約是 1.5 億美元。

So a little bit better than we had expected to be $100 million over macro last year. And the majority of that, probably 75% of it or more was commercial excellence. Less of that was new product introductions, but we did say that, that would start to even out in an NPI or innovation would take over in that third year.

所以比我們預期的去年宏觀經濟1億美元好一些。其中大部分，可能75%甚至更多，都是商業上的成功。新產品推出的數量減少了，但我們確實說過，這種情況會在第三年趨於平衡，新產品推出或創新將會佔據主導地位。

And that's, in fact, what we're seeing in 2026. So we're guiding here at 3%. We expect the macro in 2026 to be a little bit better at 1.5, maybe 1.7 range, something like that. So our outperformance this year versus the macro was more like $300 million or more.

而這，實際上，正是我們在 2026 年所看到的。所以我們目前的指導價是3%。我們預計 2026 年的宏觀經濟狀況會略好一些，可能在 1.5 到 1.7 之間。因此，我們今年相對於宏觀經濟的超額收益約為 3 億美元或更多。

And that's roughly half and half between NPI and commercial excellence. So that's how we see this playing out. And yes, the back half last year did show that. We did outperform the macro.

新產品導入和商業卓越性各佔一半左右。這就是我們對事情發展走向的預測。是的，去年下半年的表現確實證明了這一點。我們的表現確實優於宏。

A lot of it was that your phrase, Julian, was carrying it on our shoulders and we expect to see more of that coming into 2026. We're launching more projects, which is very good.

很大程度上是因為朱利安你的那句話，這句話一直激勵著我們，我們預計在 2026 年會看到更多這樣的事情發生。我們正在啟動更多項目，這非常好。

We're getting a lot more granular tracking the incremental revenue coming from Class 3s, 4s and 5s, and as we look out into next year, we're pretty confident that those are going to start to move the needle for the company, which is why we feel good about outgrowing the macro here in '26.

我們正在更加細緻地追蹤 3 級、4 級和 5 級車輛帶來的增量收入，展望明年，我們非常有信心這些收入將開始推動公司的發展，這就是為什麼我們對 2026 年的成長超過宏觀預期感到樂觀的原因。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

喬‧奧迪亞，富國銀行。

I wanted to start on footprint optimization. If you can give a little color between factories and distribution centers, how you're thinking about targets for footprint reduction or consolidation in 2026, both in terms of kind of number of facilities and as well as op profit impact?

我想先從優化佔地面積入手。如果可以的話，請您具體說明工廠和配送中心之間的區別，以及您在 2026 年如何考慮減少或整合業務規模的目標，包括設施數量和營運利潤的影響？

And then any color around segments and regions where we would see the biggest impact there?

然後，在哪些區域和細分市場中，哪些區域會受到最大的影響，並用顏色標示這些區域？

So look, it's all part of our broader transformation agenda. We're just starting on that as we speak. We did see some announcements at the back end of last year. We announced one small facility last week in our network. We ended the year around about 108 factories.

所以你看，這一切都是我們更廣泛的轉型計劃的一部分。我們現在才剛開始這項工作。我們在去年年底確實看到了一些公告。上週我們宣佈在我們的網路中新增一個小型設施。年底時，我們大約有 108 家工廠。

We have several, about seven coming out with the sale of precision grinding and finishing so call it about 100 factories that will come down over time. I can't size it for you today. We will be making some investments in '26 to restructure that network.

我們有好幾家，大概有七家，都是精密研磨和精加工的銷售公司，所以隨著時間的推移，大約有100家工廠會倒閉。今天我無法幫您測量尺寸。我們將在 2026 年進行一些投資，以重組該網絡。

But keep in mind, these things are three, four, five year payback. So we'll start on it, accelerate into '26, accelerate in '27. But this is really about building that margin runway to grow beyond 25% in '27 in terms of operating margin.

但請記住，這些投資需要三到五年才能收回成本。所以我們將開始著手這項工作，在 2026 年加速推進，在 2027 年加速推進。但這實際上是為了建立利潤成長空間，以便在 2027 年實現營業利潤率超過 25%。

So we will consolidate this network. It will be factories and distribution centers. We're making some progress on DCs as well. But I won't be able to size it for you today in terms of the specific numbers, but that's the trajectory we're on here.

因此，我們將整合這個網路。那裡將建有工廠和配送中心。我們在資料中心方面也取得了一些進展。但今天我無法用具體的數字來告訴你它的大小，但這就是我們目前的發展方向。

And then just wanted to touch a little bit more on consumer. If you could elaborate on kind of what you tracked over the course of the quarter, kind of early into this year, sort of a step down in demand trends versus what maybe it was a little bit more transitory and just kind of how that's pacing?

然後，我還想再稍微談談消費者方面的問題。如果您能詳細說明您在本季追蹤到的情況，也就是今年年初，需求趨勢出現下滑，而這種下滑可能只是暫時的，以及這種下滑的趨勢是如何變化的？

And then separately, just with the focus on memory chips out there, I think you said consumer electronics or you expect it to be up mid-single digits, but any impact you're seeing in the markets tied to that?

另外，就目前市場上對記憶體晶片的關注而言，我想您提到過消費性電子產品，或者您預計其漲幅將達到個位數中段，但您認為這會對相關市場產生什麼影響？

So on the consumer market, as I mentioned earlier, as we entered, first of all, for the first nine months of the year, we were about 30 basis points of growth in each quarter, which was pretty consistent, and that was above what we saw the macro. It was a good time to return to growth.

所以，正如我之前提到的，在消費市場方面，我們進入市場後，首先，在今年的前九個月裡，我們每季都實現了約 30 個基點的成長，這相當穩定，而且高於宏觀經濟的成長。現在是重返增長期的好時機。

We feel very positive about that. And we had expected that we would see the similar trajectory going into the fourth quarter. That didn't happen. We saw October and November being a little bit light.

我們對此感到非常樂觀。我們原本預計第四季也會出現類似的走勢。那件事並沒有發生。我們看到十月和十一月的客流量略少。

You sell through the channel was a bit light, POS was light. So inventory started to come up a little bit. We start to see that reverse a little bit in December. So December, orders were okay, growth was double digit over the prior year December.

通路銷售額有點低，POS 銷售也比較低。所以庫存開始略有上升。12月份我們開始看到這種情況略有逆轉。所以12月訂單狀況還不錯，比上年12月實現了兩位數的成長。

The holiday season was a little bit muted, I would say, so overall, for Q4, we came in at down 2.2%. And as I said, as we turn the corner into January, it's very, very early. We're only a couple of weeks in. We're trending as we would expect it to be.

我覺得假期期間的銷售情況比較平淡，所以整體而言，第四季我們的業績下降了 2.2%。正如我所說，現在才剛進入一月份，時間還非常非常早。我們才過了兩週而已。我們的趨勢正如預期的那樣。

So I can't really comment too much about that. We'll say more over time. But that's a consumer again. I would just characterize it as being relatively soft, bumping around flattish as we entered as we ended the fourth quarter.

所以我對此不便多加評論。我們會擇日詳述。但這又是消費者的問題了。我只能說它比較軟，在我們進入第四節結束時，路面比較平坦，略有顛簸。

So on electronics, overall, so it's consumer electronics business, we provided adhesives, we provide films into that area for foldable devices for de-bondable devices, a lot of NPI going into that space. We are focusing on growing our position in the mainstream market.

所以就電子產品而言，整體而言，也就是消費性電子業務，我們為可折疊設備和可脫黏設備提供黏合劑和薄膜，許多新產品都進入了這個領域。我們正致力於擴大在主流市場的地位。

3M as a whole in consumer electronics is more like 80-20 or 70-30 premium to mainstream and the market is the opposite of that. We do see an opportunity to grow and penetrate mainstream. Some of that is in China, and we're making good progress.

3M 在消費性電子產品領域的整體情況更像是高階產品佔 80%，主流產品佔 20% 或 70%，而市場情況則恰恰相反。我們確實看到了發展壯大並打入主流市場的機會。其中一些工作在中國進行，我們取得了良好的進展。

So a lot of the NPI that we're launching, we are penetrating into a lot of China OEMs and Asia OEMs in that mainstream market. And I think we're starting to gain some share there.

因此，我們正在推出的許多新產品，都打入了中國和亞洲主流市場的許多原始設備製造商 (OEM) 和原始設備製造商 (OEM) 市場。我認為我們正在逐漸獲得一些市場份額。

So that's why we see that business for us when we add in semiconductor, data center, all in electronics to be up mid-single digits here coming into 2026 similar to what we saw last year.

所以，這就是為什麼我們預計，到 2026 年，半導體、資料中心以及所有電子產品業務的成長將達到個位數中段，與去年的情況類似。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

Just on that electronics point. So the reported revenues were down sequentially and also year-over-year. Is there adjust that back to get to that mid-single digit for the fourth quarter? I mean you said it was strong, but what was kind of the organic rate of growth. It's tough to tell from the from the subsegment disclosure?

就電子元件那部分而言。因此，公佈的收入環比下降，年比也下降。能否調整一下，讓第四季的降幅達到個位數中段？我的意思是，你說它很強勁，但是它的自然成長率是多少呢？從子板塊披露中很難判斷？

Yes. We ’d see in the mid-single digits. What we're looking at in the table is with PFAS, and we exclude the PFAS out of the results. So when you exclude that, it's mid-single digits.

是的。我們預計會在個位數中段看到。我們在表格中看到的是含有 PFAS 的數據，我們將 PFAS 從結果中排除。所以如果排除掉這部分，就是個位數了。

Okay. And then when you're expanding into this mainstream area, is there any kind of dilutive impact to margins at all? Or you kind of make up for it in the other end by being more efficient with some of the initiatives you're working on?

好的。那麼，當您拓展到主流領域時，是否會對利潤率產生任何稀釋影響？或者，你可以透過提高某些正在進行的專案的工作效率來彌補這一點？

No, we're not seeing it being margin dilutive as we innovate here, develop products, design to cost, it's an important push that the team is making is designing more cost-effective product.

不，我們不認為這會稀釋利潤率，因為我們在這裡進行創新、開發產品、進行成本控制設計，團隊正在努力的方向是設計更具成本效益的產品。

Now we're not seeing any margin degradation. And so far, it's been good. It's early, but it's the push we're making. And again, a lot of NPI in that space.

目前我們沒有看到任何利潤率下降的情況。目前為止，一切都很好。現在還為時過早，但這正是我們正在努力的方向。而且，該領域還有很多新產品導入。

Okay. Sorry, one more, just for this year, the $500 million in, I guess, litigation costs in '25. How do you expect that to trend in that adjustment to trend in '26.

好的。抱歉，今年還有一件事，那就是 2025 年的訴訟費用，估計高達 5 億美元。你預計2026年這種調整的趨勢會如何？

It's probably going to be in line with that. I can't really tell you if it's going to be up or down. I mean it depends on what happens in the overall docket, but I would expect it to be pretty similar to that.

很可能與此相符。我真的無法告訴你它會上漲還是下跌。我的意思是，這取決於整個案件的審理結果，但我預計結果會與此非常相似。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

安德魯‧奧賓，美國銀行。

So on SIBG growth in '26, I think last quarter, you had the slide 5 that showed SIBG growth correlation to improving OTIF, new product introduction. And you sort of can see in the fourth quarter on a two year stack, clearly, there is more momentum.

關於 SIBG 在 2026 年的成長，我認為上個季度，你們的第 5 張投影片顯示了 SIBG 成長與提高 OTIF 和新產品推出之間的相關性。從兩年的累積數據來看，第四季的數據明顯顯示出更大的成長動能。

So given that comps in the first half are going to be easier than in the second half, but at the same time, we have seemingly good momentum with self-help. Should we see first half stronger growth than second half? Or should the growth be fairly steady year-over-year throughout the year?

鑑於上半場的比賽會比下半場的比賽更容易，但同時，我們在自助方面似乎也取得了良好的進展。我們是否應該預期上半年的成長會強於下半年？或者說，全年成長率應該保持相對穩定？

So Andrew, it's a very, very good question. We do see really good momentum in SIBG as it went from the first half of the second half. And I could see where you're going, and I'll pass that message on to Chris, I'm sure he's listening as well.

安德魯，你問的這個問題非常好。我們看到SIBG從下半年的前半段開始就展現了非常好的發展動能。我明白你的意思，我會把這個訊息轉達給克里斯，我相信他也在聽。

The reality is there's good momentum, really good progress on commercial excellence. We're launching more projects there. The only caveat is, as I talked about earlier, we do see US IPI a little bit softer. We know the roofing business, experienced a trough really in Q4.

現實情況是，目前勢頭良好，在商業卓越方面取得了非常好的進展。我們將在那裡啟動更多項目。唯一需要注意的是，正如我之前提到的，我們看到美國的IPI指數略微偏低。我們知道屋頂行業在第四季度確實經歷了低潮。

It was weaker than we'd expect, quite a bit weaker than we had expected. And that's a piece of the SIBG business. I'd expect that weakness will drag into the front half of this year. So there's going to be some offsets.

它比我們預期的要弱，比我們預期的要弱得多。這是SIBG業務的一部分。我預期這種疲軟態勢會延續到今年上半年。所以會有一些偏差。

But yes, I mean, largely, I think you're heading in the right direction. I think SIBG is performing really well. We'd expect to continue that trend here in 2026.

但是，總的來說，我認為你們正朝著正確的方向前進。我認為SIBG的表現非常出色。我們預計這一趨勢將在 2026 年繼續保持。

And just a follow-up on electronics. You sort of talked about extending into mainstream and the sort of echos strategy from the days of George Buckley the pyramid strategy.

最後再補充一點關於電子產品的內容。你剛剛談到要拓展到主流市場，以及類似喬治·巴克利時代的金字塔策略的迴音策略。

Is this just the focus on consumer electronics? Or are you thinking of sort of tweaking it and implementing it beyond consumer electronics, the sort of mainstream strategy.

這只是對消費性電子產品的關注嗎？或者您是否考慮對其進行一些調整，並將其應用於消費性電子產品以外的主流領域？

No, I'm speaking today basically on consumer electronics. And I think you've commented before that this strategy was embarked upon in the past. Look, this has to be a very thoughtful way of going at this.

不，我今天主要講的是消費性電子產品。我認為你之前也說過，這種策略過去就曾經實施過。你看，這必須是經過深思熟慮的處理方式。

We have to make sure that all of our infrastructure, our designs, our sourcing, how we manufacture, how we ship, how we price, always geared towards going after that segment, which is quite big, but making sure we do it profitably.

我們必須確保我們的所有基礎設施、設計、採購、製造方式、運輸方式、定價方式，始終以爭取這個相當大的細分市場為目標，但要確保我們能夠獲利。

So it's a bit of a business model shift as well. So I drive you back to what we're trying to do on our transformation agenda. A lot of this business model shift is shifting our cost structure, both G&A as well as on the factory side.

所以這也是一種商業模式的轉變。所以，我再回到我們正在努力推動的轉型議程。這種商業模式的轉變很大程度上改變了我們的成本結構，包括一般及行政費用以及工廠方面的成本。

And if we do that and we bring that cost out, that does allow us to lower the water level of our cost and attack these interesting and growing segments at profit rates that we have today. So that's where we're going.

如果我們這樣做，把成本降下來，就能降低成本水平，並以我們目前的利潤率進軍這些有趣且不斷增長的細分市場。所以，這就是我們要去的地方。

We're pushing ahead in consumer electronics. Could it be, go beyond that. We'll see. But right now, the comments are specific to consumer electronics.

我們在消費性電子領域全力推動。難道還能更進一步？我們拭目以待。但目前這些評論僅限於消費性電子產品領域。

Nothing wrong with that strategy, our stock outperformed under George Buckley.

這個策略沒什麼問題，在喬治·巴克利執掌期間，我們的股票表現優異。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

阿米特·梅赫羅特拉，瑞銀集團。

Anurag, I guess I wanted to just ask about incremental margins for this year. The implied is sort of in the low 40%, which is not that much above the 30% to 40% kind of core organic on the growth. So I'm just kind of curious what the productivity assumption is, what the offsets are from stranded costs?

Anurag，我只是想問一下今年的增量利潤率。隱含成長率大概在 40% 左右，與 30% 到 40% 的核心有機成長比例相差不大。所以我很好奇生產力假設是什麼，擱淺成本的抵銷金額是多少？

Maybe I'm double counting, maybe some of that's already included in the 30%, 40%, but if you can unpack that for us, I think that would be helpful. And then on the first quarter, specifically, I know you said high single digits, not to be nitpicky, but are we kind of above $2 per share in 1Q, like any final point would be helpful.

也許我重複計算了，也許其中一部分已經包含在 30% 或 40% 中了，但如果你能幫我們分析一下，我想那會很有幫助。然後，具體來說，關於第一季度，我知道您說的是個位數高位成長，我不是吹毛求疵，但我們第一季的每股盈餘是否超過了 2 美元？任何最後的補充資訊都會有所幫助。

Okay, great. Thanks for the question, Amit. Just firstly, if you look at both volume and productivity in 2026, it's going to be higher than what it was in '25. So in '25, between volume and productivity, we had about $750 million of operating income increase.

好的，太好了。謝謝你的提問，阿米特。首先，如果你看一下 2026 年的產量和生產力，你會發現它將高於 2025 年的水準。因此，在 2025 年，透過提高產量和生產力，我們的營業收入增加了約 7.5 億美元。

And that was a 2.1% organic revenue growth with 3% growth, the $200 million of volume will now become closer to $250 million and productivity actually goes up from $550 million to about $600 million. So overall, we're going to see about $125 million to $150 million increase between volume and productivity in '26 and the productivity is going up on three real buckets around there.

這意味著有機收入成長了 2.1%，成長率為 3%，2 億美元的銷量將接近 2.5 億美元，而生產力實際上從 5.5 億美元提高到約 6 億美元。因此，總體而言，2026 年產量和生產力將增加約 1.25 億美元至 1.5 億美元，而生產力的提高主要體現在三個方面。

First is on supply chain. We expect half of that to come out of supply chain, which is continued cost of poor quality, bringing it down, procurement, managing a four wall spend in the factory in logistics. There's about $150 million of indirect expenses. We did a good job in '25. We'll continue to do that in '26.

首先是供應鏈。我們預計其中一半成本將來自供應鏈，包括持續的低品質成本、降低品質成本、採購、工廠物流等方面的支出。間接費用約1.5億美元。我們在2025年做得很好。我們將在 2026 年繼續這樣做。

And another $150 million in G&A efficiency as we look at our processes of optimization and so on. So overall, I would say that the incrementals between volume, between productivity and the volume growth is going to be higher.

此外，透過優化流程等方式，我們還將節省 1.5 億美元的管理費用。所以總的來說，我認為產量、生產力和產量成長之間的增量將會更高。

What's offsetting it in '26 or the $0.5 billion, which is being offset in '26. One is a pickup in investments. Last year, we did 185. We're going to do an incremental 225 this year. The stranded cost goes up from $100 million last year to $150 million this year.

2026 年有什麼可以抵銷這部分損失，或者說 2026 年要抵銷的 5 億美元。一是投資回升。去年我們做了185次。我們今年將逐步增加 225 輛。擱淺成本從去年的 1 億美元增加到今年的 1.5 億美元。

So I would say those are probably the two biggest buckets, which we obviously, we have half a year of tariff as well, which is $140 million. So you put these three together, that's $0.5 billion of it. Obviously, as we go into '27, a couple of them will not recur, but the incrementals overall are pretty good for '26.

所以我覺得這可能是最大的兩個方面，顯然，我們還有半年的關稅，也就是 1.4 億美元。把這三項加起來，就是 5 億美元。顯然，到了 2027 年，其中一些項目將不會再出現，但 2026 年的整體增量相當不錯。

Now on your first quarter, it is a very specific question that you're asking me. What I would say is that as I spoke about volume and productivity, I said about $875 million to $900 million for the year. The first quarter is almost 25% of that, right?

現在，在你第一個季度，你問我的問題非常具體。我想說的是，正如我之前談到產量和生產力時所說，今年的產量和生產力大約是 8.75 億美元至 9 億美元。第一季幾乎佔了其中的25%，對吧？

So if you kind of run the numbers through, and there will be a little bit of FX favorability in the first quarter given where we were last year. We run all of that through, it will be high single-digit EPS growth.

所以，如果你仔細計算一下，考慮到去年同期的情況，第一季的匯率會有一些利多。綜合考慮所有這些因素，每股收益將實現高個位數成長。

Okay. And then just maybe a longer-term question for Bill. You've obviously given us a lot of metrics, whether it's OTIF or OEE. And I'm kind of intrigued by this move to this design to cost approach in the R&D function.

好的。那麼，或許可以問比爾一個更長遠的問題。顯然，你們給了我們很多指標，無論是OTIF還是OEE。我對研發職能中這種以成本為導向的設計方法很感興趣。

NPI is helpful, but it doesn't really capture kind of how the addressable market is changing based on the incremental NPI side.

NPI（新產品導入）雖然有用，但它並不能真正反映出目標市場如何隨著新產品導入的增加而變化。

I'd be curious, one, how do you hold the R&D function kind of accountable to this cultural shift? And what can you kind of share with us in terms of the NPI coming out, how effective that is in going after the 80% of the market that you're kind of not there at the moment.

我很好奇，首先，如何讓研發部門對這種文化轉變負責？那麼，關於即將推出的新產品導入（NPI），您能和我們分享一下嗎？它在開拓您目前尚未觸及的 80% 的市場方面有多有效？

So Amit, good question. I'll just hit it briefly. I think there's two pieces of it. One is the value engineering efforts that we are stepping up dramatically this year on to take cost out of products that are on the market today, which does require additional engineering work, there's qualification work, there's things that have to happen, generally speaking, to get those initiatives taking hold.

阿米特，問得好。我就簡單提一下。我認為它由兩個部分組成。一是我們今年正在大力推動價值工程工作，以降低目前市場上產品的成本，這確實需要額外的工程工作、認證工作，總的來說，要使這些舉措得以實施，還需要做很多事情。

We also define to drive that back into the overall design mindset in thinking of cost as we start developing products, and that's the push we're making is thinking about it early in the design process, which is the best time to be thinking about that.

我們也規定，在產品開發之初，就要將成本考量納入整體設計理念。我們正在努力的方向是在設計過程的早期階段就考慮成本問題，因為這是考慮成本的最佳時機。

How we hold people accountable in R&D or anywhere through the company product leaders, general managers, even me, is the quality of the business cases and making sure that the business cases are developed rigorously from the ground up with a good sense of what the costs happen to be and you start with the design to cause mentality and holding people accountable to the results of what we're investing in based on these business cases where we're going to be pushing the company more this year.

我們透過公司產品負責人、總經理，甚至我本人，在研發或其他任何領域追究人們的責任，關鍵在於商業案例的質量，確保商業案例從一開始就經過嚴格製定，充分了解成本，並以“設計致因”的理念為出發點，讓我們根據這些商業案例，對我們投資的結果負責，而今年我們將加大對公司的投入。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)，德意志銀行。

Just wanted to circle back on China. I think you guys have embedded 4% IPI growth in '26 and that compares to like 6% in '25. I know '25 was like a pretty good year for you gone. What you're seeing in the region and where that decel is coming from for next year?

只是想再談中國。我認為你們已經將 2026 年的 IPI 成長率設定為 4%，而 2025 年的成長率約為 6%。我知道2025年對你來說是相當不錯的一年。您目前在該地區觀察到的情況以及明年經濟放緩的原因是什麼？

So thanks for the question. China actually had a very good year for us. I had a good couple of years. In '24, they're up double digits. Last year, they're up mid-single digits.

謝謝你的提問。中國今年對我們來說其實是相當不錯的一年。我度過了美好的兩年時光。2024年，他們的領先優勢達到了兩位數。去年，他們的增幅在個位數左右。

It was a little bit lighter in Q4, but only because of as Anurag had mentioned in his prepared remarks, the shift out of China smartphone production when you exclude that, the market, the China business for us remains mid-single digits.

第四季略有下降，但正如 Anurag 在事先準備好的發言稿中提到的那樣，這是因為中國智慧型手機生產轉移出去造成的。如果排除此因素，我們的中國市場業務仍保持在個位數中段。

And as we turning the corner to this year, yes, the macro is softening a little bit, is what we're expecting. I think 2 points down year-over-year on IPI, at least as we see it today and the forecast yet, this could go in lots of different ways.

隨著我們進入今年，宏觀經濟確實會略有緩和，這是我們預期的。我認為IPI年減2個百分點，至少從我們目前看到的情況和預測來看是這樣，但未來可能會有許多不同的發展方向。

But we see that market to be more low to mid-single digits this year, still growing, maybe not as robustly as we saw last year, but still low to mid-single digits. The bottom line is we run China a little bit differently in the company just like we do in India.

但我們認為今年該市場成長將保持在個位數低至中等水平，仍在成長，可能不如去年強勁，但仍保持在個位數低至中等水平。總之，我們公司在中國的運作方式與在印度的運作方式略有不同。

It's a hybrid model. So we have global business groups and a really strong, dedicated, driven local team. We're driving a lot of localization of R&D, localization of sourcing.

它是一款混合動力車型。因此，我們擁有全球業務團隊和一支非常強大、敬業、積極進取的本地團隊。我們正在大力推動研發本地化和採購本地化。

We're attacking the market. We've got six factories there, 5,000 people. And we've got people lined up to really drive that business. And I think we are performing well. And I would say we're outperforming. And I expect the same thing here in '26.

我們正在進軍市場。我們在那裡有六家工廠，5000名員工。我們已經安排了人手來真正推動這項業務的發展。我認為我們表現不錯。我認為我們表現優異。我預計2026年也會出現同樣的情況。

Bill, that's helpful. And then obviously, you had quite a bit of new noise from a tariff perspective over the weekend. So can you just confirm the tariff headwind that you guys are embedding in 2026 doesn't include any of this potentially new tariffs from Europe? And have you guys tried to quantify what that could mean for your business if they are enacted?

比爾，這很有幫助。顯然，週末期間，關稅方面也出現了一些新的變化。那麼，您能否確認一下，你們在 2026 年實施的關稅逆風措施是否不包括來自歐洲的任何潛在新關稅？你們有沒有嘗試量化一下，如果這些規定得以實施，會對你們的業務產生什麼影響？

So Nicole, great question. So what we're embedding in our guidance is the carryover effect of the $0.20 of gross impact that we saw last year. That's in and Anurag mentioned, that's mostly in the first half of this year. That's what's in the guidance because that's what's in law. That's what's in practice today and we're moving.

妮可，問得好。因此，我們在指導意見中體現的是去年看到的 0.20 美元毛影響的延續效應。正如 Anurag 所說，這主要會在今年上半年實現。指導意見裡就是這麼規定的，因為法律裡就是這麼規定的。這就是目前實際的做法，我們正在朝著這個方向發展。

Now the pieces that at least the presence now talking about relative to Greenland and new different tariffs on Europe, it's about eight countries, we talk about 10% in February, the 25% midyear or something like that. For us, the trade flows between US and Europe is around $1 billion.

現在，至少目前討論的是與格陵蘭島相關的問題，以及對歐洲（大約八個國家）徵收的新關稅，我們說2月份會徵收10%，年中會徵收25%之類的。對我們來說，美國和歐洲之間的貿易額約為10億美元。

We're a net exporter. So we export $700 million into Europe. We import back about $250 million. If you just run the numbers at 10% and then growing up to 25%, you can get to something in the order of $60 million, $70 million.

我們是淨出口國。因此，我們向歐洲出口了7億美元。我們進口了大約2.5億美元。如果以 10% 的比例計算，然後逐步提高到 25%，就能達到 6,000 萬美元到 7,000 萬美元左右。

But that's as, over the course of the year, we'll see some of that going in inventory. We'll see some of that dragging into 2027. So if that plays out exactly as we expect and the trade flow as I mentioned, it could be a $30 million, $40 million impact this year.

但隨著一年的進行，我們會看到其中一些產品進入庫存。有些情況可能會持續到 2027 年。所以，如果事情的發展完全按照我們預期的那樣，貿易流動也如我所提到的那樣，那麼今年可能會造成 3000 萬到 4000 萬美元的影響。

But again, we're a long way from that becoming an executive order. So we'll see. We're watching it as everybody else is. That is not yet in our guidance.

但話說回來，距離將其轉化為行政命令還有很長的路要走。我們拭目以待。我們和其他人一樣，都在關注這件事。我們的指導方針中尚未包含這方面內容。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

I wanted to ask about consumer. Bill, I think you said December was up double digits. So with the quarter down 2%, I guess, October, November would be down high single. So really sharp positive rate of change there.

我想問一下關於消費者的問題。比爾，我記得你說過12月的成長幅度是兩位數。所以，如果本季下降 2%，我猜 10 月和 11 月的跌幅會很大。所以，那裡的變化速度確實非常迅猛，呈現正成長趨勢。

I guess is there anything to call out with the comps to December, just have a really easy comp because it doesn't seem like you guys expect much of that strength to continue into Q1, maybe one month doesn't make a trend, so too early. But any color there would be appreciated.

我想，關於 12 月的比較數據，有什麼需要特別注意的嗎？因為比較數據很容易得出結果，而且你們似乎也不認為這種強勁勢頭會延續到第一季度，也許一個月的數據不足以說明趨勢，所以現在下結論還為時過早。但任何顏色都會令人欣喜。

Yes. Chris, we typically see seasonality within the quarter in CBG to be lower in the first couple of months and then higher in the third month. We saw that pattern play out each quarter last year, including in Q4.

是的。Chris，我們通常看到 CBG 的季度季節性波動在前幾個月較低，然後在第三個月較高。去年每季我們都看到了這個模式，包括第四季。

This one was a little bit different. It was a little bit weaker in October, November than we would have expected and then a little bit stronger in December than we would have expected.

這次的情況有點不同。10 月和 11 月的疫情比我們預期的要弱一些，而 12 月的疫情又比我們預期的要強一些。

I think part of it was the team pushing pretty hard, a lot of really good work that the team did in promotional programs with our large retailers who also were striving to drive their growth. And that combination, I think, paid some dividends in December.

我認為部分原因是團隊付出了巨大的努力，團隊在與大型零售商的促銷活動中做了很多非常出色的工作，這些零售商也都在努力推動自身發展。我認為，這種組合在 12 月取得了一些成效。

So we grew a little bit better than expected in December, a little bit weaker in October, November. I wouldn't read too much into the trend so far in the first couple of weeks.

所以我們在 12 月的成長比預期略好，10 月和 11 月的成長則略弱。我不認為前幾週的趨勢值得過度解讀。

Let's see how the next number of weeks and maybe a couple of months ago. But at least it seems to be holding okay to what we had expected in the first couple of weeks. So I wouldn't read too much into that at this moment, Chris.

讓我們看看接下來幾週，甚至幾個月的情況會如何。但至少在前幾週，情況似乎還不錯，符合我們的預期。所以克里斯，我覺得你現在不必對此過度解讀。

I appreciate that. And then if I could follow up on the US IP assumption. You guys are calling for flat in '26 after 1% growth in '25. When we look at the quarterly US industrial production numbers, they seem to be strengthening as '25 went along.

我很感激。然後，如果我能跟進美國知識產權的假設。你們預測2026年經濟將持平，而2025年經濟成長了1%。從美國季度工業生產數據來看，2025 年全年工業生產似乎都在走強。

You guys are obviously calling for things to soften. Do you see anything out there that is softening? Is there just some conservatism in that assumption?

你們顯然是在呼籲緩和局勢。你看到有什麼事物正在軟化嗎？這種假設是否帶有某種保守主義色彩？

So you're right. I mean if you look at IPI through the course of last year, what we're seeing backward looking, it did improve sequentially over the course of the year. It was a little bit stronger in the back half than it was in the front half.

你說得對。我的意思是，如果你回顧去年的IPI數據，你會發現它在過去一年中確實逐年有所改善。後半程比前半程稍微強。

According to forecast, it looks like it's flattish in 2026. So we're reading those numbers. For us, as I mentioned before, we do expect our industrial business to continue to perform very well. The two areas within industrial that we're watching.

根據預測，2026年經濟情勢似乎比較穩定。所以我們正在解讀這些數字。正如我之前提到的，我們預計我們的工業業務將繼續表現良好。我們正在關注工業領域的兩個面向。

One is an auto aftermarket. It looks like it's still remaining relatively soft or expected to be range soft on car repair claims, both in US and Europe as well as in the roofing granules business because of the housing market, consumers not looking to replace the roofs right now.

一個是汽車售後市場。看來，無論是在美國還是歐洲，汽車維修索賠以及屋頂顆粒業務，由於房地產市場的原因，消費者目前沒有更換屋頂的打算，因此汽車維修索賠仍然相對疲軟，或者預計會持續疲軟。

That business has been a little bit. So fact's very soft in the fourth quarter. We expect some softness in the beginning of this year. But again, I just come back to the, with the execution of the team and commercial excellence and NPI.

那項業務有點…所以，第四季的事實非常模糊。我們預計今年年初市場會有些疲軟。但是，我最終還是要回到團隊的執行力、卓越的商業表現和新產品導入（NPI）上來。

I think they're doing a very good job. I expect it will outperform that industrial macro as we get into '26.

我認為他們做得非常好。我預計到 2026 年，它的表現將優於工業宏觀經濟。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安迪‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

So as you said, you originally forecast '25 averaging high-teens growth from that rolling five year new products. But you averaged closer to mid-20%.

正如你所說，你最初預測 2025 年新產品滾動五年平均成長率將達到 10% 以上。但你的平均得分接近 20% 左右。

It's obviously one of the metrics leading to your market outgrowth. But what could it average in '26? And does it suggest you get higher than that $300 million or higher, as you just said in terms of market outgrowth?

這顯然是衡量您市場成長的指標之一。但2026年的平均會是多少呢？這是否意味著，正如你剛才所說，就市場成長而言，你能獲得超過 3 億美元甚至更高的收益？

So we do see a higher in '26 than '25 in terms of market outgrowth. And it's exactly from the progress made on innovation and five year new product sales coming up.

因此，我們看到 2026 年的市場成長高於 2025 年。而這完全源自於創新方面所取得的進展以及即將到來的五年新產品銷售。

Again, when we look at the '26 numbers, we assess the macro as it affects 3M to be on the order of around 1.7%, that we're projecting growth of the company, organic growth of 3%, that delta, that outgrowth is over $300 million above the macro.

再說一遍，當我們查看 2026 年的數據時，我們評估宏觀經濟對 3M 的影響約為 1.7%，我們預測公司將實現 3% 的有機增長，這一增量，即超額增長，比宏觀經濟高出 3 億美元以上。

Half of that is coming from new product introductions, both those that were launched at the back end of '25, we had a very good back half as well as those that we expect will launch in 2026. So I feel really good about the trajectory we're on and the momentum we're building here.

其中一半來自新產品的推出，包括 2025 年下半年推出的產品（我們下半年的業績非常好），以及我們預計在 2026 年推出的產品。所以我對我們目前的發展軌跡和正在建立的勢頭感到非常滿意。

This is really, I think, moving the needle with a little market tailwind, we'll see even greater pickup, but I feel good that we'll outgrow the macro next year. This year, '26 as a result of some of the initiatives we have in place on NPI and commercial excellence.

我認為，這確實在推動情況發展，再加上一點市場順風，我們會看到更大的成長，但我有信心明年我們將超越宏觀經濟的成長。今年，由於我們在新產品導入和商業卓越方面採取的一些舉措，我們取得了 26 年的成績。

Got it. And then you were able to essentially hold the line, I think all year in '25 in consumer in terms of growing margin nicely despite flat sales. And with the understanding that Q4 organic sales declined, it seemed like you still had a relatively significant degradation in margin performance.

知道了。然後，我認為在 2025 年全年，儘管銷售額持平，但消費者業務的利潤率卻穩步增長，基本上保持了穩定。考慮到第四季有機銷售額下降，你們的利潤率表現似乎仍然出現了相對明顯的下滑。

So could you give us more color on that? Was it mostly just the increased advertising promos that you talked about? And can you talk about your confidence level and growing consumer margin or at least holding up in '26?

能再詳細說說嗎？你剛才提到的主要是廣告宣傳力度加大嗎？您能否談談您的信心水平以及不斷增長的消費者利潤率，或至少在 2026 年能否保持穩定？

Yeah. So good question. It was the promos and discounts that were offered. I think for the whole year, we did very well. We're up 130 basis points. We're down 110 in the fourth quarter. But again, for the year, really good.

是的。問得好。吸引人的是各種促銷和折扣。我認為就全年而言，我們做得非常好。我們漲了130個基點。第四節我們落後110分。但就今年而言，這真的很棒。

The team is doing an excellent job of focusing on the priority brands and appropriately investing in ad merch. The NPI launches in CBG, we're really good up double year-over-year, and I expect margin growth as we get into '26 as well as they really level out the business.

團隊在重點品牌建立和廣告週邊產品的合理投資方面做得非常出色。NPI 在 CBG 推出後，我們真的非常出色，同比增長了一倍，而且我預計隨著 2026 年業務的真正穩定，利潤率也會增長。

So I feel pretty good about the structure that we have in place in CBG and the strategy that's being executed and with a little bit of consumer recovery, you'll see that coming through in the CBG business this year. So I appreciate that question.

所以我對我們在 CBG 領域建立的架構和正在執行的策略感到非常滿意，隨著消費者需求的逐步復甦，你將會在今年的 CBG 業務中看到成效。我很感謝你的提問。

This concludes the question-and-answer portion of our conference call. I will now turn the call back over to Bill Brown for some closing comments.

本次電話會議的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給比爾·布朗，請他做一些總結發言。

Well, thank you, everybody, for joining again today. And thanks to all of the 3Mers for their efforts, for their dedication in executing against our priorities and delivering value to both our customers as well as our shareholders. Thank you, and have a good day.

謝謝大家今天再次參加。感謝所有 3M 員工的努力，感謝他們為實現我們的優先事項所付出的奉獻，感謝他們為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。謝謝，祝您今天過得愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，請您斷開線路。