(MGA) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Magna International Q4 and Year-end 2023 results and 2024 Outlook Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Friday, February 9, 2024.

您好，歡迎參加麥格納國際第四季和 2023 年底業績以及 2024 年展望電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議將於今天（2024 年 2 月 9 日星期五）錄製。

I would now like to turn the call over to Louis Tonelli, Vice President, Investor Relations.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Louis Tonelli。

Thanks. Hello, everyone, and welcome to our conference call covering our 2023 results and our 2024 outlook. Joining me today are Swamy Kotagiri and Pat McCann. Yesterday, our Board of Directors met and approved our financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023 as well as our 2024 financial outlook.

謝謝。大家好，歡迎參加我們的電話會議，內容涉及我們的 2023 年業績和 2024 年展望。今天加入我的是斯瓦米·科塔吉里 (Swamy Kotagiri) 和帕特·麥肯 (Pat McCann)。昨天，我們的董事會召開會議並批准了 2023 年第四季的財務業績以及 2024 年的財務展望。

We issued a press release this morning outlining both of these. You'll find the press release, today's conference call webcast, the slide presentation to go along with the call and our updated quarterly financial review, all in the Investor Relations section of our website at magna.com.

我們今天早上發布了一份新聞稿，概述了這兩件事。您可以在我們網站 Magna.com 的投資者關係部分找到新聞稿、今天的電話會議網路廣播、電話會議的幻燈片演示以及更新的季度財務回顧。

Before we get started, just as a reminder, the discussion today may contain forward-looking information or forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Such statements involve certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties, which may cause the company's actual or future results and performance to be materially different from those expressed or implied in these statements.

在我們開始之前，提醒一下，今天的討論可能包含適用證券立法含義內的前瞻性資訊或前瞻性陳述。此類陳述涉及某些風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致公司的實際或未來結果和績效與這些陳述中明示或暗示的結果和績效有重大差異。

Please refer to today's press release for a complete description of our safe harbor disclaimer. Please also refer to the reminder slide included in our presentation that relates to our commentary today. This morning, we will cover our 2023 highlights as well as our Q4 results. We will then provide our '24 outlook and lastly, run through our financial strategy.

請參閱今天的新聞稿，以了解我們安全港免責聲明的完整說明。另請參閱我們簡報中與我們今天的評論相關的提醒幻燈片。今天早上，我們將介紹 2023 年的亮點以及第四季的業績。然後我們將提供 24 年展望，最後概述我們的財務策略。

And with that, I'll pass it over to Swamy.

接下來，我會將其交給 Swamy。

Thank you, Louis. Good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining our call today, and let's jump right in. Overall, I was pleased with our 2023 operating performance, including good launch execution that helped us to continue to drive organic sales growth over market and record sales of $42.8 billion.

謝謝你，路易斯。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，讓我們直接開始吧。總體而言，我對我們2023 年的經營業績感到滿意，包括良好的發布執行力，幫助我們繼續推動市場有機銷售增長並創下428 億美元的銷售額記錄。

Great efforts at all levels to offset inflationary pressures and significant traction in removing costs and improving efficiencies across the company. We ended the year with solid Q4 results considering we were slightly hampered by a couple of discrete items relative to our expectations. Pat will cover those.

各級都做出巨大努力來抵消通膨壓力，並在整個公司降低成本和提高效率方面發揮巨大作用。考慮到與我們的預期相比，我們受到一些離散項目的輕微阻礙，我們在第四季度取得了穩健的業績。帕特會報道這些。

Our sales of $10.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 were up 9% year-over-year despite the UAW strikes that reduced sales by $275 million in the quarter and contributed to negative vehicle production mix for us relative to the comparable period in 2022. Adjusted EBIT increased 52% to $558 million in Q4 and EBIT margin increased 150 basis points to 5.3%. Adjusted EBIT margin ended the year at 5.2%, up 70 basis points year-over-year and in the middle of the 5.1% to 5.4% range we guided to in November of last year.

儘管 UAW 罷工導致該季度銷售額減少 2.75 億美元，並導致我們的汽車產量與 2022 年同期相比出現負值，但我們 2023 年第四季度的銷售額為 105 億美元，同比增長 9%。第第四季調整後息稅前利潤成長52%，達到5.58 億美元，息稅前利潤率成長150 個基點，達到5.3%。調整後息稅前利潤率為 5.2%，年增 70 個基點，處於我們去年 11 月指導的 5.1% 至 5.4% 範圍的中間位置。

Our adjusted EPS for the quarter was up 41% to $1.33 and ended the year at $5.49. And free cash flow in Q4 was $472 million, up $132 million relative to Q4 last year.

本季調整後每股收益成長 41%，達到 1.33 美元，年末每股收益為 5.49 美元。第四季的自由現金流為 4.72 億美元，比去年第四季增加了 1.32 億美元。

Turning to key accomplishments in 2023. We executed on a number of short and midterm operational excellence activities, which contributed about 75 basis points to margin expansion this past year and is expected to contribute a further 75 basis points combined over the next 2 years. Our customers continue to recognize our efforts in operational excellence and innovation.

談到 2023 年的主要成就。我們執行了許多短期和中期卓越營運活動，這些活動為去年的利潤率擴張貢獻了約 75 個基點，預計在未來 2 年將進一步貢獻 75 個基點。我們的客戶繼續認可我們在卓越營運和創新方面所做的努力。

Last year, we received 107 customer awards in recognition of quality and operational performance, one reason we continue to win business. And in 2023, we committed to achieve net 0 emissions by 2050. Operational excellence is enabled by our ongoing focus on people development. This past year, we launched our operational management accelerator program aimed at identifying and cultivating individuals within Magna to become future leaders in our divisions.

去年，我們獲得了 107 項客戶獎項，以表彰其品質和營運績效，這也是我們繼續贏得業務的原因之一。 2023 年，我們承諾在 2050 年實現淨零排放。我們持續專注於人才發展，從而實現卓越營運。去年，我們啟動了營運管理加速器計劃，旨在識別和培養麥格納內部的個人成為我們部門的未來領導者。

For the second year in a row, Magna has been named one of the world's most ethical companies. And I'm proud that Magna received 16 leading employer recognitions this past year, including Fortune's world's most admired companies and Forbes Best Employers, both for the seventh consecutive year.

麥格納連續第二年被評為全球最具商業道德的公司之一。我感到自豪的是，麥格納在過去的一年中獲得了16 項領先雇主的認可，其中包括《財富》全球最受尊敬的公司和《福布斯》最佳雇主，這兩項獎項都是連續第七年獲得的。

With respect to sales growth, we once again outgrew our markets in 2023. We were awarded about $12 billion in new business, which will contribute to further sales growth above market as these programs launch in the future. And we are on track with integration and synergies for the Veoneer acquisition.

就銷售成長而言，我們在 2023 年再次超越了市場。我們獲得了約 120 億美元的新業務，隨著這些計劃未來的推出，這將有助於進一步超越市場的銷售成長。我們正在努力實現收購 Veoneer 的整合和協同效應。

Lastly, our commitment to innovation has helped us win business in core areas, including advanced high-volume front camera modules with a European-based global OEM, battery enclosures with 4 global OEMs and e-Drives systems with a European-based and North American-based global OEM.

最後，我們對創新的承諾幫助我們贏得了核心領域的業務，包括與歐洲全球 OEM 合作的先進大批量前置攝影機模組、與 4 個全球 OEM 合作的電池外殼以及與歐洲和北美合作的電子驅動系統基於全球OEM。

With that, I will pass it over to Pat to cover our financials in more detail.

這樣，我將把它交給帕特，以更詳細地介紹我們的財務狀況。

Thanks, Swamy, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a review of our results. As Swamy indicated, we were pleased with our 2023 operating results. Overall, global light vehicle production increased 8% in 2023 or 9% weighted for our geographic sales. Our consolidated sales rose 13% year-over-year. On an organic basis, our sales increased 11%, driving a 2% weighted growth over market for the year despite the negative impact of the UAW strikes in the third and fourth quarters.

謝謝斯瓦米，大家早安。我將首先回顧我們的結果。正如 Swamy 所言，我們對 2023 年的經營業績感到滿意。整體而言，2023 年全球輕型汽車產量成長 8%，以地理銷售加權計算成長 9%。我們的綜合銷售額年增 13%。儘管第三季和第四季受到 UAW 罷工的負面影響，但我們的銷售額有機成長了 11%，推動全年市場加權成長 2%。

Our adjusted EBIT margin improved 70 basis points to 5.2%, reflecting earnings on higher sales including improved margins due to the impacts of operational excellence, cost initiatives, productivity improvements and lower costs at previously underperforming facilities. These were partially offset by higher costs associated with new assembly business, the negative impact of the UAW strikes, the net unfavorable impact of commercial items, lower amortization related to the initial value of public company securities, higher launch costs and the impact of acquisitions net of divestitures.

我們調整後的息稅前利潤率提高了70 個基點，達到5.2%，反映了銷售收入的增加，包括由於卓越營運、成本計劃、生產力提高和以前表現不佳的設施降低成本的影響而提高的利潤率。這些損失被與新組裝業務相關的成本上升、美國汽車工人聯合會罷工的負面影響、商業項目的淨不利影響、與上市公司證券初始價值相關的攤銷減少、較高的啟動成本以及收購淨值的影響所部分抵銷。資產剝離。

Mainly as a result of our sales growth and margin expansion, adjusted EPS increased 29% to $5.49. For the fourth quarter, sales increased 9% to $10.5 billion. Adjusted EBIT improved 150 basis points to 5.3%, and adjusted EPS rose 41% to $1.33. I'll take you through some of the details.

主要由於我們的銷售成長和利潤率擴大，調整後每股收益成長 29% 至 5.49 美元。第四季銷售額成長 9%，達到 105 億美元。調整後息稅前利潤成長 150 個基點，達到 5.3%，調整後每股盈餘成長 41%，達到 1.33 美元。我將帶您了解一些細節。

North American, European and Chinese light vehicle production were up 5%, 7% and 12%, respectively, resulting in an overall 7% increase in global production. Breaking down North American production further, while overall production increased 5%, production by our Detroit-based customers, which were targeted in the UAW strikes actually declined 11% in the fourth quarter.

北美、歐洲和中國輕型汽車產量分別成長5%、7%和12%，全球產量整體成長7%。進一步細分北美產量，雖然整體產量增加了 5%，但 UAW 罷工的目標底特律客戶的產量在第四季度實際上下降了 11%。

Our consolidated sales were $10.5 billion, up 9% over the fourth quarter of 2022. The sales increase was primarily due to the higher global vehicle production, the launch of new programs, the acquisition of Veoneer Active Safety, net of the divestiture of our manual transmission plant in Europe and the net strengthening of currencies against the U.S. dollar.

我們的綜合銷售額為 105 億美元，比 2022 年第四季成長 9%。銷售額成長主要是由於全球汽車產量增加、新專案的推出、收購 Veoneer Active Safety（扣除我們手冊的剝離）歐洲輸電工廠的建設以及貨幣兌美元的淨走強。

These were partially offset by lower complete vehicle sales, mainly due to a program changeover in Graz, Austria and an estimated $275 million impact from the UAW strikes in North America.

這些損失被整車​​銷售下降所部分抵消，這主要是由於奧地利格拉茨的計劃變更以及北美 UAW 罷工造成的約 2.75 億美元的影響。

On an organic basis, our sales increased 4% year-over-year or 7% excluding complete vehicles. This compares to a 6% increase in weighted global production. Once again, negative production mix, largely driven by the UAW strikes unfavorably impacted our year-over-year sales growth in the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBIT was $558 million, and adjusted EBIT margin was 5.3% compared to 3.8% in Q4 of 2022.

從有機角度來看，我們的銷售額年增 4%，不包括整車則成長 7%。相比之下，全球加權產量增加了 6%。主要由美國汽車工人聯合會罷工推動的負生產組合再次對我們第四季的年比銷售成長產生了不利影響。調整後息稅前利潤為 5.58 億美元，調整後息稅前利潤率為 5.3%，而 2022 年第四季為 3.8%。

Our continued focus on operational excellence and performance on cost initiatives in addition to higher volumes is driving strong earnings on higher sales. This was despite the negative impacts of a program changeover in complete vehicles and the UAW strikes in North America, which we estimated cost us about 50 basis points. The net effect of these generated 30 basis points of net improvement.

除了更高的產量之外，我們還繼續專注於卓越營運和成本計劃績效，這正在透過更高的銷售額推動強勁的獲利。儘管整車項目轉換和北美聯合汽車工人聯合會罷工產生了負面影響，我們估計這讓我們損失了約 50 個基點。這些措施的淨效果產生了 30 個基點的淨改善。

Adjusted EBIT margin was also positively impacted by about 80 basis points of net operational items, which include productivity and efficiency improvements at certain facilities and higher tooling contribution. Nonrecurring items, which together had a net favorable impact of about 30 basis points and about 20 basis points related to lower net input costs.

調整後的息稅前利潤率也受到淨營運項目約 80 個基點的正面影響，其中包括某些設施的生產力和效率的提高以及更高的工具貢獻。非經常性項目合計產生約 30 個基點的淨有利影響，以及與較低淨投入成本相關的約 20 個基點的淨有利影響。

EBIT margin was negatively impacted by lower equity income, which reduced margin by about 10 basis points. Earnings on higher unconsolidated sales were more than offset by the finalization of year-end tax balances and some negative product mix in one JV.

息稅前利潤率受到股本收入下降的負面影響，導致利潤率下降約 10 個基點。較高的未合併銷售額帶來的收益被最終確定的年終稅收餘額和一家合資企業的一些負面產品組合所抵消。

In addition to these items, relative to our expectations, there were some retiming of expected customer recoveries into 2024. As Swamy alluded to earlier, relative to our expectations for the fourth quarter, the lower equity income together with a foreign exchange loss on the valuation -- devaluation of the Argentinian peso cost us about $35 million or about $0.11 per share.

除了這些項目之外，相對於我們的預期，預期客戶恢復時間也被重新調整到了2024 年。正如斯瓦米早些時候提到的，相對於我們對第四季度的預期，股權收入較低以及估值的外匯損失—阿根廷比索貶值使我們損失約 3,500 萬美元，即每股約 0.11 美元。

Turning to a review of our cash flows and investment activities. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we generated $660 million in cash from operations before changes in working capital, up $127 million or 24% from 2022. We also generated $918 million in working capital for total cash from operations of $1.6 billion for the quarter. Investment activities in the quarter included $944 million for fixed assets largely to support program awards and $189 million for investments, other assets and intangibles.

轉向對我們的現金流和投資活動的審查。 2023 年第四季度，我們在營運資本變動前的營運中產生了6.6 億美元的現金，比2022 年增加了1.27 億美元，即24%。我們還產生了9.18 億美元的營運資本，該季度的營運現金總額為16 億美元。本季的投資活動包括 9.44 億美元的固定資產（主要用於支持計畫獎勵）以及 1.89 億美元的投資、其他資產和無形資產。

Overall, we generated free cash flow of $472 million in Q4. And we also paid $133 million in dividends in the quarter. Growing our dividend remains an element of our financial strategy. And yesterday, our Board approved an increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.475 per share, our 14th consecutive year of increased fourth quarter dividends, reflecting the Board and management's collective confidence in the outlook for our business.

總體而言，我們在第四季度產生了 4.72 億美元的自由現金流。本季我們還支付了 1.33 億美元的股息。增加股利仍然是我們財務策略的要素。昨天，我們的董事會批准將季度股息增加至每股 0.475 美元，這是我們連續 14 年增加第四季度股息，反映了董事會和管理層對我們業務前景的集體信心。

We have increased our dividend per share at an average annual growth rate of 11% going back to 2010. And now I'll pass it back to Swamy to cover our outlook.

自 2010 年以來，我們以年均 11% 的成長率提高了每股股息。現在我將把它轉回 Swamy 來闡述我們的前景。

Thanks, Pat. Over the past 3 years, we have been highlighting our go-forward strategy to propel our business into the future. The key aspects of our strategy are unchanged despite continuing industry challenges, and we are making significant progress in our strategy. This progress is reflected in our outlook, and we expect to realize further benefits beyond our outlook period.

謝謝，帕特。在過去的三年裡，我們一直強調我們的前進策略，以推動我們的業務走向未來。儘管產業挑戰持續存在，但我們策略的關鍵面向並未改變，且我們的策略正在取得重大進展。這項進展反映在我們的展望中，我們期望在展望期之後能實現進一步的效益。

As always, our outlook reflects both tailwinds and headwinds. In terms of tailwinds, we are launching content on a number of new programs, which is contributing to sales growth. Our megatrend business is expected to continue to grow significantly, which we anticipate will drive profitability as we leverage the sales growth.

一如既往，我們的前景既反映了順風，也反映了逆風。在順風方面，我們正在推出一些新節目的內容，這有助於銷售成長。我們的大趨勢業務預計將繼續大幅成長，我們預計，隨著我們利用銷售成長，這將推動獲利能力。

And we expect further traction in our operational excellence activities contributing to additional margin expansion. In terms of headwinds included in our outlook, we anticipate further net input cost increases substantially related to continued elevated inflation driving higher labor rates and scrap prices are expected to continue to decline.

我們預計卓越營運活動的進一步推動將有助於進一步擴大利潤率。就我們展望中包含的不利因素而言，我們預期淨投入成本進一步增加，這與通膨持續走高推動勞動力價格上漲有關，預計廢鋼價格將持續下降。

The industry appears to be moving from supply constraint to demand constraint as macro challenges persist. And expected EV penetration rates have been pushed out, which is having some negative impact on our anticipated short and midterm sales growth.

隨著宏觀挑戰持續存在，該行業似乎正在從供應限制轉向需求限制。預期的電動車滲透率已被推遲，這對我們預期的短期和中期銷售成長產生了一些負面影響。

So how does all this translate in our key financial metrics? We expect continued solid organic sales growth over market in the range of 3% to 5% on average per year over our outlook period. We anticipate margin expansion of 180 basis points or more from 2023 to 2026. Our engineering investments in megatrend areas should average about $1.2 billion annually before customer recoveries. This includes about $300 million related to the acquisition of Veoneer Active Safety.

那麼這一切如何轉化為我們的關鍵財務指標呢？我們預計，在展望期內，市場有機銷售額將持續穩健成長，平均每年成長 3% 至 5%。我們預計從 2023 年到 2026 年，利潤率將成長 180 個基點或更多。在客戶恢復之前，我們在大趨勢領域的工程投資每年平均約為 12 億美元。其中包括與收購 Veoneer Active Safety 相關的約 3 億美元。

We expect a modest decline in megatrend engineering spend in 2026 relative to 2024 and 2025 levels while sales are increasing. Capital spending is expected to decline beyond this year and CapEx to sales is on a path to return to more normal levels as we have highlighted previously. Lastly, we expect our free cash flow generation to increase each year over our outlook period as sales continue to grow, margins expand and CapEx to sales normalize.

我們預計 2026 年大趨勢工程支出相對 2024 年和 2025 年的水準將略有下降，而銷售額將增加。正如我們之前強調的那樣，預計今年以後資本支出將下降，而銷售資本支出將恢復到更正常的水平。最後，我們預計，隨著銷售持續成長、利潤率擴大以及銷售資本支出正常化，我們的自由現金流量在展望期內每年都會增加。

We anticipate over $2 billion in free cash flow by 2026. Last year, we highlighted our significant expected sales increases in megatrend areas and the fact that our engineering spend in absolute dollars was largely unchanged through our outlook. While our midterm sales in megatrend areas have been somewhat impacted by lower expected volumes, particularly related to EVs, the trajectory of our sales growth in these areas remains considerable, growing by over $4 billion in the next 3 years.

我們預計到2026 年，自由現金流將超過20 億美元。去年，我們強調了我們在大趨勢領域的預期銷售大幅成長，以及我們的工程支出（以絕對美元計算）在我們的展望中基本上沒有變化。雖然我們在大趨勢領域的中期銷售受到了預期銷量下降的一定影響，尤其是與電動車相關的銷量，但我們在這些領域的銷售成長軌跡仍然相當可觀，在未來 3 年內增長超過 40 億美元。

Lower expected megatrend profits on the reduced sales is the most significant factor shifting our profitability inflection point from 2025 to 2026. While our outlook reflects a modest 2025 loss year, we continue to work to reduce or eliminate this loss. Regardless, we expect significant improvement in our results in these areas over our outlook period and solid profitability by 2026.

銷售額減少導致的預期大趨勢利潤下降是將我們的獲利拐點從2025 年轉移到2026 年的最重要因素。雖然我們的前景反映了2025 年的適度虧損，但我們將繼續努力減少或消除這種損失。無論如何，我們預計在展望期內這些領域的業績將顯著改善，並在 2026 年實現穩定的獲利能力。

Next, let me cover our consolidated outlook. In terms of key assumptions, our outlook reflects essentially no growth in weighted global light vehicle production and only modest growth of about 1% on average over the '23 to '26 period. In other words, it's our content growth that is driving our organic sales. We assume exchange rates in our outlook will approximate recent rates. Net-net, the impact of currency to our outlook is expected to be negligible.

接下來，讓我介紹一下我們的綜合展望。就關鍵假設而言，我們的前景反映出全球加權輕型汽車產量基本上沒有增長，並且在 23 年至 26 年期間平均僅小幅增長約 1%。換句話說，是我們的內容成長推動了我們的有機銷售。我們假設展望中的匯率將接近近期匯率。淨淨來看，貨幣對我們前景的影響預計可以忽略不計。

We expect weighted sales growth over market between 3% and 5% over our outlook period. From '23 to '24, sales growth substantially reflects the launch of new and replacement programs, a higher amount of directed content on the new Mercedes G-Class assembly program and the acquisition of Veoneer Active Safety.

我們預計展望期內市場加權銷售額成長率將在 3% 至 5% 之間。從 23 世紀到 24 世紀，銷售成長很大程度上反映了新計劃和替代方案的推出、新梅賽德斯 G 級裝配計劃的定向內容增加以及對 Veoneer Active Safety 的收購。

These are partially offset by lower sales in the remainder of our complete vehicle business, largely as a result of the end of production of certain programs and a higher proportion of vehicles assembled whose sales we account for on a value-added basis. From 2024 to 2026, the most significant contributors to sales growth are the launch of new and replacement programs and increased directed content sales from the Mercedes G-Class as volumes ramp.

這些損失被我們整車業務其餘部分的銷售額下降所部分抵消，這主要是由於某些項目的生產結束以及我們在增值基礎上佔銷售額的組裝車輛比例較高所致。從 2024 年到 2026 年，銷售成長的最重要貢獻者是新計畫和替代方案的推出，以及隨著銷售量的增加，Mercedes G-Class 的定向內容銷售增加。

In addition, we expect an 8% to 9% compounded sales growth from unconsolidated JVs over our outlook period, including from our LG JV for electrified components and systems, our e-Drives systems JV in China and our Seating JVs. We expect another step-up in consolidated margins in 2024 to a range of 5.4% to 6%. Our 2024 margin is expected to benefit from contribution on higher sales and ongoing operational excellence activities. Partially offsetting these are higher launch and new facility costs associated with new programs as well as higher net input costs expected to impact us by about 30 basis points.

此外，我們預計在展望期內，非合併合資企業的複合銷售額將成長 8% 至 9%，其中包括 LG 電氣化零件和系統合資企業、中國的電動驅動系統合資企業以及座椅合資企業。我們預計 2024 年綜合利潤率將再次上升至 5.4% 至 6% 的範圍。我們 2024 年的利潤率預計將受益於更高的銷售額和持續的卓越營運活動的貢獻。部分抵銷這些影響的是與新專案相關的更高的啟動和新設施成本，以及更高的淨投入成本，預計將對我們產生約 30 個基點的影響。

While we do not provide a quarterly outlook similar to last year, we expect our 2024 earnings to be lowest in the first quarter of 2024 and improved meaningfully in the second quarter. We expect a further step-up in margins to the 7% to 7.7% range from 2024 to 2026. This is largely driven by further contribution on higher sales, continued operational excellence activities, the reversal of launch and new facility costs as programs come on, lower engineering spend and growing equity income. These are partially offset by a 10 basis point impact from higher directed content on the G-class as volumes ramp.

雖然我們沒有提供與去年類似的季度前景，但我們預計 2024 年第一季的獲利將最低，第二季將顯著改善。我們預計從 2024 年到 2026 年，利潤率將進一步提升至 7% 至 7.7%。這主要是由於銷售額增加、持續卓越營運活動、專案啟動和新設施成本的逆轉所帶來的進一步貢獻，工程支出減少，股權收入增加。隨著銷售量的增加，G 級更高的定向內容帶來的 10 個基點的影響部分抵消了這些影響。

Many of the same factors that are impacting consolidated sales and margins out to 2026 are also impacting our segments. In the interest of time, we will not run through the segment detail. However, we are happy to discuss any questions on them. I'll pass it back over to Pat to cover some of the highlights of our financial strategy.

影響 2026 年綜合銷售額和利潤率的許多相同因素也會影響我們的細分市場。由於時間關係，我們不會詳細介紹該部分。但是，我們很樂意討論有關它們的任何問題。我會將其轉交給帕特，以介紹我們財務策略的一些亮點。

Thanks, Swamy. We have been consistent in communicating our capital allocation principles over the years, and I'd like to repeat these. We want to maintain a strong balance sheet, ample liquidity and high investment grade ratings, invest for growth through organic and inorganic opportunities, along with innovation spending, and return capital to shareholders.

謝謝，斯瓦米。多年來，我們一直一致地傳達我們的資本配置原則，我想重複一遍。我們希望保持強勁的資產負債表、充足的流動性和高投資等級評級，透過有機和無機機會以及創新支出進行投資以實現成長，並向股東返還資本。

Our balance sheet continues to be strong with investment-grade ratings from the major credit agencies. At the end of Q4, we had over $4 billion in liquidity including about $1.2 billion in cash. Currently, our adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio is at 1.89. We anticipate a reduction of our leverage ratio to be back within our targeted range during 2025. We expect capital spending for 2024 to be approximately $2.5 billion. This includes about $100 million that will be funded by our customers.

我們的資產負債表持續保持強勁，並獲得主要信貸機構的投資等級評級。截至第四季末，我們擁有超過 40 億美元的流動資金，其中包括約 12 億美元的現金。目前，我們的調整後債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 1.89。我們預計槓桿率將在 2025 年降低至目標範圍內。我們預計 2024 年的資本支出約為 25 億美元。其中包括將由我們的客戶資助的約 1 億美元。

Under U.S. GAAP, such customer funded amounts are included in deferred revenue, whereas previously they were netted against capital spending. In other words, this CapEx is cash flow neutral and capital spending would be $2.4 billion. Our '24 to 2026 capital spending outlook also includes approximately $400 million related to recent program awards, from a high-volume EV OEM that were not included in our previous outlook.

根據美國公認會計準則，此類客戶資助金額包含在遞延收入中，而此前它們是從資本支出中扣除的。換句話說，該資本支出是現金流中性的，資本支出將為 24 億美元。我們的 24 至 2026 年資本支出展望還包括與最近的項目獎勵相關的約 4 億美元，這些項目來自大批量電動車 OEM，但我們先前的展望中未包含這些項目。

Despite these new awards, we expect CapEx as a percent of sales to decline over the '24 to 2026 time frame, in line with what we had been indicating over the past year. EV volumes remain uncertain, and we continue to have discussions with customers about future plans. We remain laser-focused on capital to assess where we may have the opportunity to stagger, delay or eliminate capital from our plan.

儘管有這些新獎項，我們預計在 24 至 2026 年期間，資本支出佔銷售額的百分比將會下降，這與我們去年的預測一致。電動車銷量仍不確定，我們將繼續與客戶討論未來計畫。我們仍然高度關注資本，以評估我們可能有機會錯開、推遲或消除計劃中的資本。

As a result of growing earnings and declining CapEx levels, we expect free cash flow to accelerate through our outlook period. We anticipate over $2 billion in free cash flow by 2026. In summary, we expect continued organic growth above market with more than $4 billion increase in megatrend sales over outlook period. Further margin expansion this year and in each of the next 2 years, including through ongoing operational excellence activities and at least $1.7 billion and increased EBITDA over our outlook period through 2026.

由於獲利成長和資本支出水準下降，我們預期自由現金流在展望期內將加速。我們預計到 2026 年自由現金流將超過 20 億美元。總之，我們預期有機成長將持續高於市場水平，展望期內大趨勢銷售額將增加超過 40 億美元。今年和未來兩年的利潤率將進一步擴大，包括透過持續的卓越營運活動，在我們的展望期內至 2026 年增加至少 17 億美元並增加 EBITDA。

We anticipate that these increasing metrics will lead to accelerating free cash flow generation over the next 3 years. We remain confident in executing our plan and continuing to drive our strategy forward. Thank you for your attention. We would be happy to answer your questions.

我們預計，這些不斷增加的指標將導致未來 3 年加速自由現金流的產生。我們對執行我們的計劃並繼續推動我們的策略充滿信心。感謝您的關注。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

Thanks for info, particularly on the '26 outlook. If we think about on Slide 35 and then 36, it seems like you're remaining very committed to your CapEx plans. Certainly, it seems like you are on the R&D side. But Swamy, there's obviously tectonic shifts that are going on here very quickly in the way that sort of the expectations are evolving for EV penetration, program potential cancellations or at least pushouts.

感謝您提供信息，特別是關於 '26 前景的信息。如果我們考慮投影片 35 和 36，您似乎仍然非常致力於您的資本支出計劃。當然，看起來你是在研發方面。但斯瓦米，顯然這裡正在迅速發生結構性變化，對電動車普及率、項目潛在取消或至少推出的預期正在不斷演變。

How flexible is your CapEx spending and R&D spending to potentially be pushed down into the right to deal with that and potentially even deal with potentially cancellations and programs?

您的資本支出和研發支出的彈性有多大，有可能被壓低到有權處理這個問題，甚至可能處理潛在的取消和計畫？

John, great question. If you just think through what's happening I think one of the key things we've been focused on and have been discussing is the CapEx. If you look at the CapEx ratio, we have been -- CapEx to sales, we've been talking about going back to the low to mid-4s, and happy that we are on track to that.

約翰，好問題。如果你仔細想想正在發生的事情，我認為我們一直在關注和討論的關鍵事情之一就是資本支出。如果你看一下資本支出比率，我們一直在談論資本支出與銷售額的比率，我們一直在談論回到 4 歲以下的水平，很高興我們正在朝著這個目標邁進。

When we talk about this year, Pat touched on his prepared comments, that $100 million of the $2.5 billion that we are showing is really given by the customer. And we actually talked about a program for another about $150 million to $200 million spend, which was not contemplated, but we felt, given the program, it was a good idea to invest in that program going forward strategically, right? So those were the 2. Otherwise, it would have been around the $2.2 billion in CapEx. So that's one part of it.

當我們談論今年時，帕特談到了他準備好的評論，即我們展示的 25 億美元中的 1 億美元實際上是由客戶提供的。我們實際上討論了另一個大約 1.5 億至 2 億美元支出的計劃，這是沒有考慮到的，但我們認為，鑑於該計劃，戰略性地投資於該計劃是一個好主意，對嗎？所以這些就是 2。否則，資本支出將達到 22 億美元左右。這就是其中的一部分。

The second part of the question that you asked regarding R&D, and we've always talked about the $900 million plus with the Veoneer $300 million, it's the $1.2 billion. With the sales increasing, again, the ratio of R&D spend to revenue was going to decline.

你問的關於研發的問題的第二部分，我們一直在談論 9 億美元加上 Veoneer 的 3 億美元，那就是 12 億美元。隨著銷售額的增加，研發支出與收入的比率再次下降。

But having said that, we are looking very seriously into the spending of that. If it's not related to the direct launch of their program, then everything is under scrutiny. And again, in the prepared comments, we talked about it. We are also looking at capital in terms of, with discussion with customers, obviously, is how can we stagger given pushout of the date for the launches or just even in terms of the volume ramps.

但話雖如此，我們正在非常認真地考慮這方面的支出。如果不是直接啟動他們的計劃，那麼一切都會受到審查。在準備好的評論中，我們再次討論了這個問題。顯然，我們也在與客戶討論資本方面的問題，即考慮到發布日期的推遲，甚至是銷量的增加，我們如何才能錯開。

So we are looking at staggering capital, looking at the modularity, having discussions with the customers, also a little bit in how we look at volumes on given programs by the customers, although we have to run at rate for them at PPAP and so on. We take into account the volume assumptions when we look at revenue on such programs.

因此，我們正在考慮驚人的資本，考慮模組化，與客戶進行討論，以及我們如何看待客戶給定程式的數量，儘管我們必須在 PPAP 等方面為他們運作。當我們考慮此類計劃的收入時，我們會考慮數量假設。

So we are looking all of that. So pushing out in terms of CapEx spend or R&D engineering spend, depending on the program cadence, absolutely, yes. Just to give an example, over the last 3 weeks, I, along with the senior management team, have spent at least about 40 hours line by line on all R&D projects, and we are looking at the value proposition of each project, what it brings to us. Keeping in mind, obviously, that it cannot hurt the future and cannot hurt the launch.

所以我們正在尋找所有這些。因此，根據專案節奏，在資本支出或研發工程支出方面推出，絕對是的。舉個例子，在過去的三週裡，我和高階管理團隊在所有研發專案上花了至少大約40個小時，我們正在研究每個專案的價值主張，它是什麼給我們帶來。顯然，請記住，它不會損害未來，也不會損害發布。

That's very helpful. And then Pat, if we were to kind of suspend this belief and say you guys remain too conservative on your volume forecast. And let's say there's a 2% to 3% upside in global LVP in '24 or maybe even just think about it sort of as 1% (inaudible) being $450 million more of revenue. Do you have capacity? Obviously, this is kind of a generic question, but to take that on and what kind of incremental would we be thinking of, if all of a sudden, sales came in 2% to 3% higher than you were thinking because LVP was higher?

這非常有幫助。然後帕特，如果我們暫時擱置這種信念，並說你們對銷量預測仍然過於保守。假設 24 年全球 LVP 有 2% 到 3% 的上漲空間，甚至可以認為 1%（聽不清楚）相當於收入增加了 4.5 億美元。你有能力嗎？顯然，這是一個普遍問題，但是如果因為 LVP 更高，銷售額突然比您想像的高 2% 到 3%，那麼我們會考慮什麼樣的增量？

John, in that scenario there, when I think that's probably a best case scenario. If you go back to Swamy's comments where we have capacity installed up to the planning volumes, right? So if we flex up, you might be -- you could speed up the line or add another shift, and that's where you have a lot of leverage in your model. So your incrementals on that scenario would be quite strong, and that would be what we've seen historically.

約翰，在那種情況下，我認為這可能是最好的情況。如果您回到 Swamy 的評論，我們的容量已達到規劃數量，對吧？因此，如果我們靈活起來，您可能會加快生產線速度或添加另一個班次，這就是您在模型中擁有很大優勢的地方。因此，您在這種情況下的增量將非常強大，這將是我們歷史上所看到的。

They're different by segment. But the 20s for BES, P&V, and then Seating, depending on the region, 12% to 17.5%. And Steyr, it's still a little bit different, John. It's because of all the recoveries. But I think that would be the best case scenario. The worst-case scenario for Magna. The worst case is when you have to put in new abilities and that's -- when you go through our business plan and you look out into the future, some of the incrementals aren't at that let's say, 20-ish percent, and it's because they're coming through market corporate average where you're adding bricks and mortar in new facilities and overheads. So a long answer, but the scenario you're describing is the best case for Magna.

它們按細分市場不同。但 20 多歲的 BES、P&V，然後是座位，根據地區的不同，為 12% 到 17.5%。斯太爾，還是有點不同，約翰。這是因為所有的康復。但我認為這將是最好的情況。對麥格納來說，這是最糟的情況。最糟糕的情況是，當你必須投入新的能力時，那就是——當你仔細閱讀我們的商業計劃並展望未來時，一些增量並沒有達到 20% 左右，而是因為它們正在經歷市場企業平均水平，您需要在新設施和管理費用中新增實體。答案很長，但您所描述的情況對於麥格納來說是最好的情況。

And then just one last question. Can you comment on what region that high-volume EV manufacturer is domiciled in? Is it a North American manufacturer or a China manufacturer? And is that for battery tray or battery structure? Or is there something else that, that CapEx is allocated for the $400 million?

最後一個問題。您能否評論一下大批量電動車製造商位於哪個地區？是北美廠商還是中國廠商？這是電池托盤還是電池結構？或者還有其他什麼，資本支出被分配給這 4 億美元？

John, under strict confidentiality, we are not able to give too much details, but I can say that this is a material investment in southern U.S. and Mexico for a significant future product of Tesla.

約翰，在嚴格保密的情況下，我們無法透露太多細節，但我可以說，這是特斯拉在美國南部和墨西哥的一項重大未來產品的重大投資。

Our next question is from the line of Chris McNally with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

One really benign question on Seating and then maybe on the capital and the buyback. So Seating, Swamy, could we take a step back. This has now been an underperformer for a couple of years. I mean, obviously, you have a different ROIC, so a slightly different margin compared to peers.

一個關於座位的非常良性的問題，然後可能是關於資本和回購的問題。所以斯瓦米，座位，我們可以退後一步嗎？幾年來，該公司的表現一直不佳。我的意思是，顯然，你有不同的投資回報率，因此與同行相比，利潤率略有不同。

But I know you can't be happy with the margin that has perpetually been a target and so that 5% or 6% range. Can you help us walk through what are some of the issues? And what will get us eventually to that 5% to 6%?

但我知道您不會對一直作為目標的 5% 或 6% 的利潤率感到滿意。您能幫我們解決一下其中的一些問題嗎？是什麼讓我們最終達到 5% 到 6%？

Chris, I think if you look at the last couple of years, the significant impact on Seating have been the mix and certain programs significantly underperforming the volume expectations compared to the planned volumes, right?

克里斯，我認為如果你看看過去幾年，對座位的重大影響是組合和某些計劃的表現與計劃數量相比明顯低於預期，對吧？

And as you know, in Seating once you have the facility and you have the labor, it's pretty much dedicated to the program. We do [our accounts] to flex, but it is not possible to negate everything. So that has been one of the primary reasons.

如您所知，在座位方面，一旦您擁有了設施和勞動力，它幾乎致力於該計劃。我們[我們的帳戶]會靈活調整，但不可能否定一切。所以這是主要原因之一。

The one other thing that you will see in the dynamics looking this year and going forward a little bit, on the seating, last year, we had assumed that we would exit a high-volume, low-margin program, and we were having discussions with the customer.

您將在今年和未來的動態中看到的另一件事是，去年，我們假設我們將退出一個大容量、低利潤的計劃，我們正在進行討論與客戶。

And during the process, we were able to secure a fair and good appropriate margin and return on the next generation. So we are maintaining the existing business now. So that's having a negative impact in the short term. The new program, the next generation with the appropriate margins and returns is starting to launch in 2026. It's a staggered launch, but it will start on the 2026.

在此過程中，我們能夠為下一代獲得公平且良好的適當利潤和回報。所以我們現在維持現有的業務。所以這在短期內會產生負面影響。新計劃是具有適當利潤和回報的下一代項目，將於 2026 年開始啟動。這是一個交錯啟動，但將於 2026 年啟動。

Also the Seating team has been extremely focused on all the items of operational excellence. So looking at all the details during our planning process minus the big program that I talked about going out into '26, '27, I feel comfortable that we are on the path to the margins that we talked about, that is in the 5% to 6%.

此外，座椅團隊也非常注重卓越營運的所有項目。因此，看看我們規劃過程中的所有細節，減去我談到的進入 26 年、27 年的大型計劃，我感到很放心，我們正走在我們談到的利潤率道路上，即 5％至6%。

Okay. Super helpful detail on that problematic platform. Can we just now maybe move to capital allocation and the idea of the buyback? So I know you have sort of the debt-to-EBITDA ratios you've used in the past. Obviously, net debt is a little bit more attractive. And also given where your stock is, can you talk about what the potential for more of a historical buyback ratio could be? Obviously, the free cash flow goes up every year, '24 to '26.

好的。有關該有問題的平台的超級有用的詳細資訊。現在我們可以轉向資本配置和回購的想法嗎？所以我知道你們有過去使用過的債務與 EBITDA 比率。顯然，淨債務更具吸引力。另外，考慮到您的股票狀況，您能否談談歷史回購率的潛力有多大？顯然，自由現金流每年都在增加，從 24 到 26。

But sort of like your investors buying low rather than buying high as always sort of a favorable strategy. So just how you're thinking about getting ahead of some of those better free cash flow numbers in years to come?

但有點像你的投資者買低而不是買高，這總是一種有利的策略。那麼，您如何考慮在未來幾年超越一些更好的自由現金流數字？

I think the capital allocation strategy and how we are looking at that, as Pat talked about in the prepared comments, remains truly as an outstart for us, Chris. If you look at the leverage ratio in 2024, our first priority is to get back to the 1% to 1.5%, right? And we seem to -- given the EBITDA profile and the sales, we see that in the early part of 2025. So once we start having the cash and the cash flow operational wise is on track to what we expect it to be, then we go back to our priority being investing organically or inorganically for the appropriate returns that are accretive to value.

我認為資本配置策略以及我們如何看待這一點，正如帕特在準備好的評論中所談到的那樣，對於我們克里斯來說，仍然是一個真正的起點。如果你看2024年的槓桿率，我們的首要任務是回到1%到1.5%，對嗎？考慮到 EBITDA 概況和銷售額，我們預計到 2025 年初就會出現這種情況。因此，一旦我們開始擁有現金，並且現金流運營方面正步入我們的預期，那麼我們回到我們的首要任務，即進行有機或無機投資，以獲得可增值的適當回報。

And anything remaining, obviously, the preference is to go back to the share buybacks. So we'll be looking at it towards the end of 2024 in the normal course of action and getting back and staying in the level ratio that we talked about.

顯然，剩下的一切，首選都是回到股票回購。因此，我們將在 2024 年底按照正常行動進行研究，並恢復並保持在我們討論的水平比率。

Our next question is from the line of Tamy Chen with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Tamy Chen。

First question is, I guess, on the low end of your '24 EBIT margin guidance, I mean, it would imply a very modest year-over-year improvement of '23, which had a number of headwinds, which is cost inflation, the underperforming BES facility, unstable production schedules and, of course, the UAW strike. So I'm just wondering, can we just go back to what assumptions you've got in there for the low end of the range? Like are you baking in just a degree of conservatism?

第一個問題是，我想，在你的 24 年息稅前利潤指引的低端，我的意思是，這意味著 23 年的同比改善非常溫和，其中存在一些不利因素，即成本通脹， BES工廠表現不佳、生產計畫不穩定，當然還有UAW 罷工。所以我只是想知道，我們能否回到您對範圍低端的假設？就像你只是在某種程度上保守主義嗎？

Tamy, I don't think it's conservative. And I think we have a well-balanced build plan. There's a fair amount of volume uncertainty and inflation continues to be a headwind. The one part you do have to consider is the impact of the G-class repricing. So G-class at Steyr is a new contract that's launching in 2024. And effectively, what's happened with all the inflation, their bill of materials has increased.

Tamy，我不認為這是保守的。我認為我們有一個平衡的建設計劃。數量存在相當大的不確定性，通膨仍然是一個阻力。您必須考慮的一部分是 G 級重新定價的影響。因此，斯太爾的 G 級是 2024 年推出的新合約。實際上，隨著通貨膨脹的發生，他們的材料清單增加了。

So we have higher revenue and exactly same higher cost of sales. We are margin neutral, but you have a drag that's impacting us by about 10 basis points just on that one program alone. So I think just the starting apples-to-apples would be a 10 basis point difference.

所以我們有更高的收入和同樣更高的銷售成本。我們的利潤率是中性的，但僅在一項計劃上，您就對我們產生了約 10 個基點的影響。因此，我認為僅在起始階段就存在 10 個基點的差異。

And then you'd start going through. We burn a flat volume scenario. We do have some negative mix and then we have headwinds again also on scrap sales. So I think when you put them all together, I think a couple of things to think about is last year, we were at a 100 basis point spread. We've tightened our gap because we feel more confident in our plan. And you add the 10 basis points, I think it's a pretty balanced plan, Tamy.

然後你就開始經歷。我們刻錄了一個平坦的體積場景。我們確實遇到了一些負面影響，廢鋼銷售也再次遇到阻力。因此，我認為當你把它們放在一起時，我認為需要考慮的一些事情是去年，我們的利差為 100 個基點。我們縮小了差距，因為我們對我們的計劃更有信心。再加上 10 個基點，我認為這是一個非常平衡的計劃，Tamy。

Okay, I see. And on the continuing cost inflation at this point, do you expect you could still realize some additional recoveries from customers? Or are we sort of in a different environment versus last year with respect to recoveries from the OEM?

好吧，我明白了。鑑於目前成本持續上漲，您是否預計仍能從客戶那裡獲得一些額外的回報？或者說，在 OEM 回收方面，我們所處的環境與去年有所不同？

Yes. I think, Tamy, we talked about inflation in some of these topics still as continuing headwinds. Last year, we talked about a $100 million magnitude and as of November, we said we were going to negate that with various activities, including recoveries, and we achieved that.

是的。我認為，塔米，我們在其中一些話題中談到的通貨膨脹仍然是持續的逆風。去年，我們談到了 1 億美元的規模，截至 11 月，我們表示將透過各種活動（包括恢復）來否定這一目標，我們實現了這一目標。

And this year, we still have embedded inflation in terms of labor. Some things have trended down, like energy and so on, but there is some stickiness on some of the product still and commodities, I mean, including labor. So it's going to be a combination of recoveries as well as definitely our continued efforts on operational excellence.

今年，我們仍然存在勞動力方面的通貨膨脹。有些東西呈下降趨勢，例如能源等，但有些產品和商品仍然存在一定的黏性，我的意思是，包括勞動力。因此，這將是復甦以及我們對卓越營運的持續努力的結合。

Okay. Got it. And so one last question here. Back on the customer-funded CapEx that you've highlighted for '24, the $100 million. So is that a new thing or you've had that and you're just highlighting it now? And is that the only one in your '24 CapEx guidance that's customer funded and so you're just calling that out?

好的。知道了。最後一個問題。回到您所強調的 24 年客戶資助的資本支出，即 1 億美元。那麼這是一個新事物還是你已經經歷過但現在只是強調它？這是您的 24 年資本支出指南中唯一由客戶資助的一項嗎？所以您只是指出這一點？

It's a new program that was awarded, Tamy. And previously, you would have just shown it as a subsidy under the old rules. But effectively, what's happened more broadly when you think about the commercial issues is we went to the customer and said, they wanted our support. And we said, we need your support to do that.

這是一個被授予的新項目，Tamy。以前，根據舊規則，您只需將其顯示為補貼即可。但實際上，當你考慮商業問題時，更廣泛發生的事情是我們去找客戶並說，他們需要我們的支持。我們說，我們需要您的支持才能做到這一點。

And that scenario, what we did was we looked at it on a cash basis. And you have some crazy accounting happening, but on a cash flow basis, it's -- you have higher CapEx and you have higher deferred revenue and in 2024, we were cash neutral. So we didn't look at the account. We didn't -- we looked at the business decision, which was -- it's a good program, it's a good customer and the customer is paying for the capital, and we had the open space. So we took on the program.

在這種情況下，我們所做的就是以現金為基礎進行研究。你會發生一些瘋狂的會計，但在現金流的基礎上，你有更高的資本支出，你有更高的遞延收入，到 2024 年，我們是現金中性的。所以我們沒有看帳目。我們沒有——我們考慮了商業決策，這是——這是一個很好的計劃，這是一個很好的客戶，客戶正在支付資本，而且我們有開放的空間。所以我們接受了這個計劃。

Tamy, just to add to that, it's not normal for customers to invest in capital. They fund and owned tooling typically. But this is one of the things that we've been considering and working through.

Tamy，補充一點，客戶投資資本是不正常的。他們通常資助並擁有工具。但這是我們一直在考慮和解決的事情之一。

Our next question is from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克‧德萊尼 (Mark Delaney)。

With the new outlook for megatrend revenue, can you help us better understand how conservative Magna was with its assumptions around customer build schedules and EV volumes, especially given that some of the North America OEMs have emphasized are going to be flexible on how fast they plan to ramp up their new EV programs?

透過對大趨勢收入的新展望，您能否幫助我們更好地了解麥格納對客戶建造時間表和電動汽車銷量的假設是多麼保守，特別是考慮到一些北美原始設備製造商強調將在計劃速度上保持靈活性加強他們的新電動車計劃？

Mark, over the last number of years, I would say, going back even 6, 8 years, we have typically been saying that the global EV market penetration would be somewhere in the low 30s globally; obviously, higher in China, followed by Europe and then North America.

馬克，我想說，在過去的幾年裡，甚至可以追溯到 6、8 年前，我們通常會說全球電動車市場的滲透率將在全球 30 左右左右；顯然，中國更高，其次是歐洲，然後是北美。

I think we still believe it's in that ballpark. And I also said previously, as we look at program by program, whether it's EV or not, we tend to have our own viewpoint on the program volumes for revenue calculation purposes, right, to estimate our revenues, although we have to hit the run rates.

我想我們仍然相信它就在那個範圍內。我之前也說過，當我們逐個節目查看時，無論是否是電動車，我們傾向於對節目數量有自己的看法，以用於收入計算目的，對，以估計我們的收入，儘管我們必須開始運行費率。

Definitely, we have weighted a little bit in OEM's production in North America for the megatrend areas or called electrification. As that tends to have a decline, we'll have a negative impact. And like I said, we'll do everything to stagger capital, work with the customers, look at modularity in program, both products and processes, but it will have a negative impact.

當然，我們在北美的 OEM 生產中對大趨勢領域或稱為電氣化的領域進行了一些加權。由於這種趨勢會下降，我們將會產生負面影響。就像我說的，我們將盡一切努力錯開資本，與客戶合作，考慮程式、產品和流程的模組化，但這會產生負面影響。

But I think the magnitude of the impact we are seeing on the revenue would be a little bit lower than what the market is seeing based on the assumptions we made before. But this is something that we need to watch continuously and be agile about it. So that's a long answer.

但我認為，根據我們先前所做的假設，我們看到的對收入的影響程度將略低於市場所看到的影響程度。但這是我們需要持續關注並保持敏捷的事情。所以這是一個很長的答案。

Very helpful. I appreciate all the context and very dynamic situation for you all to deal with. On a related topic, as OEMs are adjusting, generally lower their EV build plans, right? There's perhaps some offset towards hybrid and ice builds. Are you seeing any higher revenue coming from different powertrains? And maybe talk a little bit more to what extent with the '24 and 2026 outlooks that you gave. Have you seen some increased revenue coming from ICE and hybrid vehicles?

很有幫助。我很欣賞你們所有人要應對的所有背景和非常動態的情況。在一個相關的話題上，隨著原始設備製造商正在調整，通常會降低他們的電動車建造計劃，對吧？也許對混合動力和冰結構有一些抵消。您是否發現不同的動力系統帶來了更高的收入？也許可以多談談您對 24 年和 2026 年的展望。您是否看到內燃機和混合動力車帶來的收入增加？

Yes. I would say, Mark, majority of our capabilities are really agnostic to powertrain, right? But in some cases, like in the powertrain, our DCT or dual-class transmission has a package-neutral hybrid option that we are currently producing with 3 OEMs. Too early to say like how the dynamics or the volumes are playing out.

是的。我想說，馬克，我們的大部分功能對於動力系統來說確實是不可知的，對吧？但在某些情況下，例如在動力系統中，我們的 DCT 或雙級變速箱具有封裝中性混合動力選項，我們目前正在與 3 個 OEM 合作生產。談論動態或音量的表現還為時過早。

We also have eDrive capabilities that can support high-voltage hybrids. And as you would remember, the LG JV can supply electrification components like motors and inverters that also apply for the hybrids. So in some cases, we are on both platforms, both ICE and EVs, for example, on Seating. But that dynamic, we have to see how it goes. But on 2027, looking out, I would still say the targets that we have provided in terms of the megatrend areas, we feel comfortable that we are still on track.

我們還擁有支援高壓混合動力車的 eDrive 功能。正如您所記得的，LG 合資企業可以提供也適用於混合動力汽車的馬達和逆變器等電氣化組件。因此，在某些情況下，我們同時使用兩個平台，即內燃機和電動車，例如在座椅上。但這種動態，我們必須看看它如何發展。但展望 2027 年，我仍然想說，我們在大趨勢領域提供的目標，我們感到放心，我們仍然走在正軌上。

Our next question is from the line of Tom Narayan with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Tom Narayan。

A couple of little housekeeping one. Slide 31, that's the segment outlook or guidance for 2024. Seating top line is coming down in '24. Just I'm sure -- I think you maybe explained that, apologies if I missed, just curious what's going on there. Then on complete vehicle, thanks, Pat, for talking about the G-Class repricing, that's explaining the margins coming down despite top lines, your revenue going up. Are there any other things we should be aware of explaining that dynamic in '24 for complete vehicle?

幾個小家事服務。第 31 張投影片，這是 2024 年的細分市場前景或指引。24 年座位數將下降。我確信——我想你可能解釋過，如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，只是好奇那裡發生了什麼。然後在整車方面，謝謝帕特談論 G 級重新定價，這解釋了儘管收入增加、利潤卻下降的原因。在解釋 24 世紀整車的動態時，我們還應該注意其他事情嗎？

Tom, I think on the C-class, I'll go through it firstly. So if you look at the Seating piece, the volume decline is effectively mix. We have -- the way a seating business works is you have dedicated jet facilities. And one of our programs in North America, the volumes from the customer is down on a year-over-year basis. That's the primary driver in the seating space.

湯姆，我想在 C 級車上，我會先檢查一下。因此，如果你看一下座椅，你會發現銷量的下降實際上是混合的。我們擁有－座位業務的運作方式是擁有專用的噴射機設施。我們在北美的一個專案中，來自客戶的數量逐年下降。這是座位空間的主要驅動力。

On the Magna Steyr piece or the complete vehicle piece, the volume is up, as I mentioned, because of the G-Wagon primarily. And then within there, there's also a little bit of -- that's the majority of the reduction. But we also have -- we had some commercial benefits in 2023 that we don't expect to recur. And there's a little bit of amortization related to some of the warrants or some of the engineering on the Fisker program that that's rolling off.

正如我所提到的，在麥格納斯太爾或整車上，銷量增加主要是因為 G-Wagon。然後其中還有一點——這是減少的大部分。但我們在 2023 年也獲得了一些商業利益，但我們預計不會再出現。還有一些與一些認股權證或正在滾動的菲斯克計劃的一些工程相關的攤銷。

And you still have growth of our market in Seating through that '23 to '26 period. So just '24 is sort a blip, but we still see it going back there.

在 23 至 26 年間，我們的座椅市場仍在成長。所以，24 年只是一個曇花一現，但我們仍然看到它會回到那裡。

Got it. And then my next one, we heard some inventory build chatter from a particular supplier in 2023 that impacted their 2024 kind of guidance. That company is basically in their own market. So -- but just curious is that something you guys were seeing at all on your guys and just inventory build that might be impacting your 2024 outlook? Or are you not seeing that?

知道了。然後我的下一篇文章，我們聽到了某個特定供應商在 2023 年庫存建設的一些討論，這影響了他們 2024 年的指導。那家公司基本上是在自己的市場。那麼，但只是好奇的是，你們在你們的員工身上看到的一些東西以及庫存的增加可能會影響你們 2024 年的前景？或者你沒有看到這一點？

Go ahead, Swamy.

繼續吧，斯瓦米。

I think, Tom, for us, I would say the simple answer is no, we don't see that impact. And the other way of looking -- we even looked at, I would say, safety stock last year versus going into this year. If anything, that's even reducing. We were kind of in the magnitude of $200 million. We see it now towards the $100 million. So short answer materially, we don't see that happening in our case.

湯姆，我想，對我們來說，簡單的答案是否定的，我們沒有看到這種影響。從另一個角度來看——我想說，我們甚至比較了去年的安全庫存與今年的安全庫存。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是這個數字甚至還在減少。我們的資金規模約為 2 億美元。我們現在看到它接近 1 億美元。答案很簡短，我們在我們的案例中沒有看到這種情況發生。

We don't have the ability to do what they're doing. We're on a pull system. So we only -- we're only able to sell to our customers what they call off. So we don't have an ability to push stuff into the supply -- into our customers compared to that company you're referring to.

我們沒有能力做他們正在做的事情。我們採用的是拉動系統。所以我們只能——我們只能向客戶銷售他們要求的產品。因此，與你提到的那家公司相比，我們沒有能力將產品推向供應——推向我們的客戶。

Got it. Maybe I'll just do a quick follow-up. At CES, you guys showcased some really impressive ADAS capabilities. We met folks from Veoneer, et cetera. Just curious as you see things evolve with, with autonomy, Level 3, et cetera. We met with some Tier 2s with LiDAR makers too at CES who are kind of, I don't know, lack of better word, in trouble.

知道了。也許我會做一個快速的跟進。在 CES 上，你們展示了一些令人印象深刻的 ADAS 功能。我們遇到了來自 Veoneer 等公司的人。只是好奇，當你看到事物隨著自主性、3 級等等而演變。我們在 CES 上也遇到了一些擁有 LiDAR 製造商的二級廠商，我不知道，他們陷入了麻煩，缺乏更好的詞。

It seems like the Tier 1s like you guys are really well positioned in ADAS as the time horizon for things like Level 4 get pushed out farther and farther. Do you guys view these Tier 2 LiDAR players potential acquisition targets for you guys? Or is that something you would potentially do organically if and when we ever get to Level 4 happening?

看起來像你們這樣的 1 級公司在 ADAS 領域確實處於有利位置，因為 4 級等事情的時間範圍被推得越來越遠。你們認為這些二級光達廠商是潛在的收購目標嗎？或者，如果我們達到 4 級，您可能會有機地做這件事嗎？

Tom, I think we have been pretty consistent in saying our focus is very much on what I call the driver assist systems, away from autonomy, to a high degree of driver assist systems, as I call it, right? Because there's so much ambiguity on what we call L2+ and L3. That's why I use the term driver assist functions.

湯姆，我認為我們一直非常一致地表示，我們的重點是我所說的駕駛員輔助系統，遠離自主性，而是高度的駕駛員輔助系統，正如我所說的，對吧？因為我們所說的 L2+ 和 L3 存在著許多歧義。這就是我使用術語“駕駛員輔助功能”的原因。

So given that, we believe we are in a good position from sensor capabilities, the software associated and the integration capabilities to bring all the sensors together, the compute, call it an ECU or a domain controller of all types.

因此，我們相信我們在感測器功能、相關軟體以及將所有感測器整合在一起的整合功能、計算（將其稱為 ECU 或所有類型的網域控制器）方面處於有利位置。

So I think we're really focused on getting through the integration process that we have, which is going on track, and we are happy to report that. So we want to get that through and there is a lot of interest from the customers and programs, and that's launching.

因此，我認為我們真正專注於完成我們現有的整合流程，該流程正在進行中，我們很高興地報告這一點。因此，我們希望能夠實現這一目標，並且客戶和專案對此非常感興趣，並且正在啟動。

So as you look into the future, the way you talked about we are really focused now on getting the market share and launching the programs and getting the growth that we talked about. On the ADAS towards the 2027, Louis, I think we were in the $4.25 billion range.

因此，當您展望未來時，您談到的方式我們現在真正關注的是獲得市場份額、啟動項目以及獲得我們談到的增長。關於 2027 年的 ADAS，Louis，我認為我們的預算是 42.5 億美元。

Yes.

是的。

So we are on track, and we are focused on that.

所以我們已經步入正軌，並且我們專注於此。

So will we be obviously looking at some building blocks of the future, yes. But that remains to see. I think we can give more color as we get towards the end of the year.

因此，我們顯然會關注未來的一些構建模組，是的。但這還有待觀察。我認為隨著年底的到來，我們可以提供更多的色彩。

Our next question is from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Itay Michaeli。

Just a couple of questions for me. First, just going back to the margin bridge this year. I just want to ask a question on the operational excellence activities? Just curious how much line of sight you have on those initiatives, how much you've already identified? And then kind of just remind us what you're seeing in terms of broader production stability and kind of what you're assuming for production volatility or stability for 2024?

只是問我幾個問題。首先，回到今年的保證金橋。我只是想問一個關於卓越營運活動的問題？只是好奇您對這些舉措有多少關注，您已經確定了多少？然後提醒我們您在更廣泛的生產穩定性方面看到了什麼以及您對 2024 年生產波動或穩定性的假設？

Itay, if you just look at the prepared comments, I talked about achieving 75 basis points this year, which we achieved. We have good line of sight for achieving the 75 basis points in '24 and '25. Typically, we have continuous improvement activities and on top initiatives that we work through our operational excellence initiatives, I should say that we work through.

Itay，如果你看看準備好的評論，我談到今年實現了 75 個基點，我們實現了。我們有良好的願景，可以在 24 年和 25 年實現 75 個基點。通常，我們會進行持續改善活動，並且在我們透過卓越營運計畫所進行的頂級舉措中，我應該說我們正在努力實施。

They're very, very granular. There is very defined streams of work that are championed by executive team all the way into the divisions. So we feel pretty good about the visibility of those going forward. But again at the beginning of the call, I made a few comments on given the volume volatility and whatever else is happening in terms of programs being pushed out and so on, we are not stopping there, right?

它們非常非常細化。有非常明確的工作流程，並受到執行團隊一直到各部門的支持。因此，我們對未來的能見度感到非常滿意。但在電話會議開始時，我再次發表了一些評論，考慮到交易量波動以及計劃推出等方面發生的其他情況，我們不會就此止步，對嗎？

We'll continue to look at, any dollar spend, does it provide the value and at what time? And maybe it's not right now and if it adds value in the future, we'll go back to it. But -- we're looking at all of that aspects. We feel pretty comfortable from a visibility perspective for the 75 basis points coming up or adding to the bottom line in '24, '25.

我們將繼續關注任何美元支出是否提供價值以及何時提供價值？也許現在還不是時候，如果它在未來增加了價值，我們就會回到它。但是——我們正在考慮所有這些方面。從可見性的角度來看，我們對 24 年、25 年利潤上漲或增加的 75 個基點感到非常滿意。

That's '24, '25 collectively. It's not each year.

這是「24」、「25」的總稱。不是每年都有。

Right, right. over a 2-year period.

是的是的。超過2年的時間。

That's helpful. Just as a quick follow-up on the megatrends outlook for 2026. So just curious what portion of the revenue outlook is already booked? And maybe broadly, Swamy, if you can just comment on what you're seeing along the pace of ADAS bookings and penetration there?

這很有幫助。就像對 2026 年大趨勢前景的快速跟進一樣。那麼只是好奇收入前景的哪一部分已經被預訂了？ Swamy，從廣義上講，您是否可以評論一下您所看到的 ADAS 預訂和滲透率的變化？

Yes. I think I just mentioned a little bit -- a little while ago that looking at 2027, right, we were talking about the $4.25 billion roughly. And I think we are on track to that, right? That's what we had talked about during our Investor Day.

是的。我想我剛才提到了一點——不久前，展望 2027 年，我們談論的是大約 42.5 億美元。我認為我們正在朝著這個目標邁進，對吧？這就是我們在投資者日討論的內容。

In the megatrend areas, we have talked about battery enclosures in addition to ADAS and powertrain. Again, looking at the 2027 time frame, we were over $4.5 billion -- or $4 billion in the powertrain electrification managed sales. I think we are still on track to that.

在大趨勢領域，除了 ADAS 和動力總成之外，我們還討論了電池外殼。同樣，展望 2027 年的時間框架，我們的動力總成電氣化管理銷售額將超過 45 億美元，即 40 億美元。我認為我們仍在朝著這個目標邁進。

Battery enclosures, we talked in the range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Again, we are on track to that. We have to keep in mind that if the volumes on certain programs change drastically, obviously, we'll have to come back and talk about it. But we are working through those. I feel pretty comfortable to numbers we talked about in 2027. Louis, I don't know?

電池外殼，我們談到的價格在 20 億至 25 億美元之間。再次，我們正朝著這個目標邁進。我們必須記住，如果某些節目的數量發生巨大變化，顯然我們將不得不回來討論它。但我們正在努力解決這些問題。我對我們在 2027 年談論的數字感到非常滿意。路易斯，我不知道？

Yes, agree with that.

是的，同意這一點。

And just to add, maybe for 2026, 90% of our sales is booked.

補充一下，也許到 2026 年，我們 90% 的銷售額都已預訂。

90%, great. That's very helpful.

90%，太棒了。這非常有幫助。

Our next question is from the line of Krista Friesen with CIBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Krista Friesen。

Just one here on the margin guide. So for 2026, 7% to 7.7%. And then looking back to the Investor Day, the 2025 guide, I believe the top end was 7.8%. So 2026 is about 10 bps lower at the top end. Can you just walk us through what's led you to this? And is it mostly the megatrends or a lower production environment?

邊距指南上只有一個。因此，到 2026 年，這一數字為 7% 至 7.7%。然後回顧 2025 年投資者日指南，我認為上限為 7.8%。因此，2026 年的上限將下降約 10 個基點。您能向我們介紹一下是什麼原因導致您出現這種情況嗎？這主要是大趨勢還是較低的生產環境？

Krista, big, big picture. When you look at the puts and takes. In '25 itself, we just look where we are today, projecting for '25 and compared to last year. We do have a lower volume assumptions as we go through the plan. And we have some higher launch and new facility costs just because of the book business increasing, but offsetting that is some operational improvements that Swamy touched on earlier.

克里斯塔，大，大畫面。當你查看看跌期權和賣出期權。在 25 年本身，我們只是看看今天的情況，預測 25 年並與去年相比。在執行該計劃時，我們確實有較低的銷售假設。由於圖書業務的增加，我們的啟動和新設施成本有所上升，但斯瓦米早些時候提到的一些營運改善抵消了這一點。

So the net effect of those at the midpoint, we were previously at 7.35%. The impact of those is about 30 basis points. And then the last piece, again, I'm going to come back to this Mercedes-Benz G Wagon pricing, the impact in '25 as we -- and into '26 is 20 basis points alone on it. So apples to apples, I would say we're aligned with the midpoint of our range.

因此，中點的淨效應之前為 7.35%。這些影響約為 30 個基點。最後，我將再次討論梅賽德斯-奔馳 G Wagon 的定價，它對我們 25 年以及 26 年的影響僅是 20 個基點。因此，我想說，我們與範圍的中點保持一致。

Great. And maybe just a housekeeping one. Have you seen any sort of supply chain impact from any of the issues going on in the Red Sea right now?

偉大的。也許只是一個家事服務。您是否看到紅海目前發生的任何問題對供應鏈產生了任何影響？

Nothing material I would -- we haven't seen really anything material. A lot of the industry disruptions, whether it was chips, we're probably more into what we would have seen historically for OEMs going down. There's not a real -- it's very different than it was 18 months ago, Krista.

我不會看到任何實質的東西——我們還沒有看到任何實質的東西。許多產業的顛覆，無論是晶片，我們可能更關注歷史上 OEM 廠商的衰退。這不是真實的——這與 18 個月前有很大不同，Krista。

Our next question is from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

I wanted to ask about just a couple earnings bridge questions. I believe your ADAS business was $1.8 billion, $1.9 billion revenue and a few hundred million dollars loss making in 2023. Since your gross profit couldn't really, at that point, offset the R&D that's spent in the business, I think it's about 2/3 of your megatrend spending, are you still expecting ADAS revenue of $3 billion and EBIT at around breakeven in 2024 and then corporate average margins in '25?

我想問幾個關於收入橋樑的問題。我相信 2023 年你們的 ADAS 業務為 18 億美元，收入為 19 億美元，虧損幾億美元。由於當時你們的毛利潤實際上無法抵消在該業務中投入的研發費用，我認為大約是 2你的大趨勢支出的3 分之一，您是否仍預計2024 年ADAS 收入將達到30 億美元，息稅前利潤將達到盈虧平衡點，然後在25 年實現企業平均利潤率？

Rod, I think we -- there's a couple of things. I think when we talked about Veoneer, one of the key things was being EBITDA neutral in '24. I think we are on track to get there, and we feel comfortable about it. Looking at the sales for 2024. I think we are on track. We're still there.

羅德，我想我們──有幾件事。我認為當我們談論 Veoneer 時，關鍵的事情之一是 24 年的 EBITDA 保持中性。我認為我們正在朝著這個目標邁進，我們對此感到很舒服。看看 2024 年的銷售情況。我認為我們已經步入正軌。我們還在那裡。

And as I mentioned, we are looking at the profitability of ADAS overall as we look at that segment or that piece of the megatrend. We feel comfortable looking at the spend on the programs that we have unless the program mix changes. And as you know, we have to still launch the programs and work through this stuff. And if the revenue gets smaller, only based on volumes, it might impact. Otherwise, I think we feel we are progressing from the spend to revenue and towards the profitability in the right way.

正如我所提到的，我們正在關注 ADAS 的整體獲利能力，就像我們關注該細分市場或大趨勢的一部分一樣。除非專案組合發生變化，否則我們對現有專案的支出感到放心。如您所知，我們仍然必須啟動這些計劃並解決這些問題。如果收入變小，僅基於銷量，可能會產生影響。除此之外，我認為我們感覺我們正在以正確的方式從支出轉向收入和盈利。

Okay. Yes. I'm just thinking about the midpoint of your revenue and the midpoint of your margin guidance implies about $300 million of earnings growth this year in 2024 versus '23. And I thought that the ADAS improvement alone, I know you had about $70 million of fee in your synergies, and it seemed like there was a meaningful amount of improvement year-over-year in ADAS? And if you get half of the 75 basis points of performance this year, that's another $150 million. Is there something that I'm missing in terms of the headwinds on a year-over-year basis that brings it back down to about $300 million of earnings growth in '24?

好的。是的。我只是在考慮你們收入的中點和利潤指導的中點意味著 2024 年與 23 年相比，今年的收入增長約為 3 億美元。我認為僅 ADAS 的改進，我知道你們在協同效應中花費了大約 7000 萬美元的費用，而且 ADAS 似乎同比有了很大的改進？如果今年的表現達到 75 個基點的一半，那就又是 1.5 億美元。就同​​比而言，我是否遺漏了一些不利因素，導致 24 年獲利成長回落至 3 億美元左右？

Rod, I think your math you're throwing out is in the ballpark for our ADAS business. So I think you're bang on there. There are a couple of pieces just to consider as well -- when you look big picture, our sales are flat year-over-year, and it's going to be the third time to say it. I feel like a broken record, but our G-Wagon impact as our sales are up, $620 million.

羅德，我認為你所放棄的數學對於我們的 ADAS 業務來說是基本合理的。所以我認為你很喜歡那裡。還有幾件事要考慮——從大局來看，我們的銷售額同比持平，這將是第三次這麼說。我感覺自己的記錄被打破了，但隨著銷售額的增長，我們的 G-Wagon 產生了 6.2 億美元的影響。

So what we are seeing is some volume weakness beyond it given the flat environment. Beyond that, we also then have -- we do have continued inflationary headwinds and lower scrap pricing, which has impacted us in the range of about 30 basis points.

因此，在平坦的環境下，我們看到的是成交量的一些疲軟。除此之外，我們確實還面臨持續的通膨阻力和較低的廢鋼定價，這對我們造成了約 30 個基點的影響。

And then we do have some -- and then the positive offset is the operational excellence that Swamy spoke about. And then the last piece really is what you referred to on the ADAS piece and some of the megatrends as the sales grow. So net-net, that works out to your $300 million.

然後我們確實有一些——然後積極的抵消是斯瓦米談到的卓越運營。最後一部分實際上就是您在 ADAS 部分中提到的內容以及隨著銷售成長的一些大趨勢。算下來，這相當於你的 3 億美元。

Okay. And then just lastly, it sounds like you're not anticipating any recovery on the 30 basis points of higher input costs. Can you just give us a little bit of color because it seemed like you had some significant impact in 2021, 2022. You kind of neutralized the headwind in 2023, but had not yet recovered the cost that you had absorbed prior to that.

好的。最後，聽起來您預計投入成本增加 30 個基點後不會出現任何復甦。您能否給我們一些信息，因為您似乎在 2021 年、2022 年產生了一些重大影響。您在 2023 年抵消了逆風，但尚未收回您在此之前吸收的成本。

And now there's -- it sounds like there's another round of material cost headwinds. So on a -- just on a very high-level basis, how are you thinking about the recoveries for what you've absorbed in these additional headwinds?

現在，聽起來似乎又出現了一輪材料成本阻力。因此，從一個非常高的層面來看，您如何看待在這些額外不利因素中所吸收的復甦？

It's primarily not material-related headwinds other than the scrap, right? So scrap reprices every month, and it's just a factor when you're selling your engineered scrap back into the dealers. But the primary driver of higher cost is the elevated inflation that we're seeing globally, and it's driving higher labor rates, Rod.

除了廢品之外，這主要不是與材料相關的不利因素，對吧？因此，廢料每個月都會重新定價，這只是您將工程廢料賣回經銷商時的一個因素。但成本上升的主要驅動因素是我們在全球範圍內看到的通貨膨脹率上升，並且它正在推動勞動力成本上升，羅德。

So if you think about traditionally you'd be in North America, whether you're U.S. or Canada, Germany, Austria or big regions, you'd be operating pick a number, say, roughly 2% labor inflation on a year-over-year basis. We're seeing increases that are above that. I would say in North America, so in Canada, U.S., we're seeing increases, maybe a couple of points above that.

因此，如果你考慮傳統上你在北美，無論你是美國還是加拿大、德國、奧地利還是其他大地區，你都會選擇一個數字，比如說，每年勞動力通膨率大約是 2%。我們看到的成長超過了這個數字。我想說的是在北美，所以在加拿大、美國，我們看到了成長，也許比這個數字高幾個百分點。

And in Europe, we're seeing bigger, bigger impacts and it's primarily driven by the higher energy costs that the local residents are feeling. So there is embedded inflation through the labor side. The flip side to that is we do have assumed recoveries from our customers to offset those amounts. We're not taking it lightly. But as Swamy said earlier, the more important thing is how do we become more efficient so that we're changing our fixed cost structure that -- these labor impacts aren't as impactful to Magna overall as we go forward.

在歐洲，我們看到了越來越大的影響，這主要是由當地居民感受到的能源成本上漲所造成的。因此，勞動力方面存在內嵌通膨。另一方面是我們確實假設從客戶收回的款項可以抵銷這些金額。我們不會掉以輕心。但正如斯瓦米早些時候所說，更重要的是我們如何變得更有效率，以便我們改變我們的固定成本結構——這些勞動力影響對麥格納整體的影響不會像我們前進的那樣大。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from the line of Brian Morrison with TD Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自道明證券 (TD Securities) 的布萊恩·莫里森 (Brian Morrison)。

Pat, I just want to clarify from a Veoneer perspective, your engineering costs, have they increased or the duration been extended from your prior outlook? And then my second question is I know it's not typical that you talk about your prior 3-year guidance, but you did reiterate your guidance for 2025 back in as late as November. I'm wondering if you can provide us an update on what your outlook is for that or at least the cadence from 5.7% this year to, I guess, a 7.35% in 2026?

Pat，我只是想從 Veoneer 的角度澄清一下，你們的工程成本是否比你們之前的預期有所增加或持續時間延長了？我的第二個問題是，我知道您談論之前的 3 年指導意見並不常見，但您確實在 11 月就重申了對 2025 年的指導意見。我想知道您是否可以向我們提供最新的展望，或至少從今年的 5.7% 到 2026 年的 7.35%？

Brian, I think 2 questions. So on the first one being the megatrend engineering spend. So we're projecting on average $1.2 billion per year over our outlook period. That's in line with what we provided as an update in September. So it's really -- so last year's outlook, we had talked about the $900 million range. We increased it to $1.2 billion fully to reflect the acquisition of Veoneer. So no change in our engineering profile.

布萊恩，我想有兩個問題。第一個是大趨勢工程支出。因此，我們預計在展望期內平均每年 12 億美元。這與我們在 9 月提供的更新內容一致。所以，去年的展望中，我們討論過 9 億美元的範圍。我們將其增至 12 億美元，以反映對 Veoneer 的收購。所以我們的工程概況沒有改變。

When you talk about our 2025 margin from September, I took Krista through the walk. So long story short, when you look at our 2025 numbers, we do see some headwinds related to volumes and some launch costs and new facility costs given some of the recent awards, but it's partially being offset by operational improvements that Swamy covered in detail.

當你談論我們從 9 月開始的 2025 年利潤時，我帶著 Krista 走了一遍。長話短說，當您查看我們2025 年的數據時，我們確實看到了一些與銷售、發射成本和新設施成本相關的不利因素（考慮到最近獲得的一些獎項），但Swamy 詳細介紹的營運改善部分抵消了這些不利因素。

So the net of those -- if you look at our midpoint for '25, we were 7.35%, the impact of those 3 categories is about a 30 basis point negative impact. And then lastly, we have, again, this G-Wagon pricing, which is about a 20 basis point headwind.

因此，如果你看看 25 年的中點，我們的淨利率為 7.35%，這 3 個類別的影響約為 30 個基點的負面影響。最後，我們再次看到 G-Wagon 的定價，大約有 20 個基點的逆風。

And just to be clear, when we're talking about updating '25, we wanted to make sure we could incorporate the impact of Veoneer incorporate the impact of the amortization. But I think we have a footnote that said that based on the assumptions that we had when we started the year, right, we were right in the middle of our business plan when we're giving that information. Volumes have changed since then and mix has changed.

需要明確的是，當我們談論更新 '25 時，我們希望確保能夠將 Veoneer 的影響納入攤銷的影響。但我認為我們有一個腳註說，根據我們年初時的假設，當我們提供這些資訊時，我們正處於業務計劃的中間。從那時起，音量發生了變化，混合也發生了變化。

That's fair. It just looks like it's a mid-6 margin for 2025 is what you're implying. I appreciate it.

這還算公平。正如您所暗示的那樣，2025 年的利潤率看起來只是 6 左右。我很感激。

Our next question is from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Any color on your exposure to Fisker? Obviously, there's some concerns there if something happened. I mean, what kind of sales or earnings impact could you see?

您接觸 Fisker 的情況有什麼改變嗎？顯然，如果發生什麼事情，人們會擔心。我的意思是，您會看到什麼樣的銷售或收入影響？

Colin, when you think about the exposure, obviously, Fisker is a big customer for our assembly operations. And as far as our exposure to them, we do disclose in our financial statements, our exposure related to all new entrants. And when I talk about exposure, it's basically related to working capital, long-term assets, dedicated type assets. And the numbers aren't out, but it's going to range -- that gross number is probably in the range of about $600 million. The majority of that is Fisker.

柯林，當你想到曝光時，顯然，菲斯克是我們組裝業務的大客戶。就我們對它們的曝險而言，我們確實在財務報表中揭露了我們與所有新進入者相關的曝險。當我談到風險敞口時，它基本上與營運資金、長期資產、專用型資產有關。數字尚未公佈，但會有所變化——總金額可能在 6 億美元左右。其中大部分是菲斯克。

Got it. Any -- but if sales were to go away too, there'd be some earnings drag too. We should be thinking about as a risk there?

知道了。任何——但如果銷售也消失，盈利也會受到一些拖累。我們應該考慮那裡有風險嗎？

It's a little bit tricky, Colin. I don't want to boggy down in this call. But the contracts we have with Steyr, not only with Fisker, but all the contracts, they're a little bit more complicated than what you'd see in the normal industry where it's no volume requirement peel. These have more -- much more complex contracts where you have fixed cost recoveries depending on fixed costs incurred and then assumptions on original volume projections versus actual.

這有點棘手，科林。我不想在這通通話中陷入困境。但是我們與斯太爾的合同，不僅是與菲斯克的合同，還有所有的合同，它們比你在正常行業中看到的要復雜一些，在正常行業中，沒有批量要求剝離。這些合約有更多、更複雜的合同，其中固定成本回收取決於產生的固定成本，然後是對原始數量預測與實際數量的假設。

So there is a true-up mechanism. So it's not an easy answer. That's why you don't see CVAs margins move around as revenues increase or decrease like our other segments.

所以就有了一個校對機制。所以這不是一個簡單的答案。這就是為什麼您不會看到 CVA 的利潤率像我們其他部門一樣隨著收入的增加或減少而變化。

Okay. And just a quick one. Equity income, I think it was only $3 million in the quarter, but the guidance is like $120 million, $150 million for next year. What was the unusual issue in Q4 and the confidence in getting back to those higher numbers?

好的。只是一個快速的。股權收入，我認為本季僅為 300 萬美元，但指導價值為 1.2 億美元，明年為 1.5 億美元。第四季的異常問題是什麼以及恢復這些較高數字的信心是什麼？

Yes. I think in Q4, there was a -- I would say there was -- one was operational, which was we had a mix issue within one joint venture being products that drove. So even though you don't see it -- even though the revenue within the joint venture was consistent, we had negative product mix and then you had margin negative headwinds on that. We also had some commercial items that we had expected to collect in the fourth quarter that have been pushed into 2024.

是的。我認為在第四季度，有一個——我會說有——一個正在運營，這是我們在一家合資企業中遇到了一個混合問題，即驅動產品。因此，即使你沒有看到它 - 儘管合資企業內的收入是一致的，但我們的產品組合是負面的，然後你就會遇到利潤率負面的阻力。我們還有一些原本預計在第四季收集的商業物品，但已推遲到 2024 年。

And then the most significant piece of it, it was -- when we did the -- not we -- but when the joint venture partner did a finalization of all the deferred tax assets for U.S. GAAP purposes, there was an adjustment to our final tax numbers. And because equity income is on an after-tax basis, that flows through that line.

然後，最重要的部分是，當我們這樣做時，不是我們，而是當合資夥伴根據美國公認會計原則最終確定所有遞延稅資產時，我們的最終結果進行了調整稅號。由於股權收入是在稅後基礎上計算的，因此它會流經這條線。

Our next question is from the line of Joseph Spak with UBS Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀證券的 Joseph Spak。

Just quickly back on the customer funded CapEx. Is it possible to sort of indicate what product line it is? Or is it across product lines? And is some of that associated revenue already considered in the 26 guide?

只需快速收回客戶資助的資本支出即可。是否可以指出它是什麼產品線？還是跨產品線？ 26 指南中是否已經考慮了其中一些相關收入？

Yes. I think the associated revenue is included for sure. I don't think we can get into the specifics of the product line. It's towards electrification, I would say.

是的。我認為相關收入肯定包括在內。我認為我們無法深入了解產品線的細節。我想說，這是朝著電氣化的方向發展。

Okay. Maybe to follow on from some of Rod's question before. If we look at Power & Vision. And if I'm looking at the '24 to '26, like the incremental margins there are significantly stronger, which I imagine is in part driven by the breakthrough and the Active Safety business. But is there anything else sort of driving that? Are synergies maybe coming in maybe better than that $70 million that you sort of originally targeting? Or anything else sort of driving the strong incrementals there?

好的。也許是延續羅德之前的一些問題。如果我們看看力量與願景。如果我看看'24到'26，就像增量利潤明顯更強，我想這在一定程度上是由突破和主動安全業務推動的。但還有其他什麼因素在推動這一點嗎？協同效應可能會比您最初目標的 7000 萬美元更好嗎？或者有什麼其他因素推動了那裡的強勁增量？

So just part of it is the synergies, but I talked about $70 million run rate by end of '25. So it seemed to be a good track to that. So we'll hit '24 half of that run rate going forward. That's one of it. The other one has is also the sales revenue coming, right, and keeping R&D costs and engineering spend constant. If you look trajectory that we talked about going into '25, '26, that also contributes to the margin expansion compared to where we were in '23.

所以，綜效只是其中的一部分，但我談到到 25 年底，營運費用將達到 7,000 萬美元。所以這似乎是一個很好的途徑。因此，我們將在 24 年達到運行率的一半。這就是其中之一。另一個因素也是銷售收入的增加，以及維持研發成本和工程支出不變。如果你看看我們談到的進入 25 年、26 年的軌跡，與 23 年相比，這也有助於利潤率的擴張。

Okay. If I could...

好的。如果我能...

So the other thing to add to that is when Swamy refers to the sales growth, and we're starting to see that inflection point in the megatrends and most of the megatrends are in the P&V group, swamy is also referring to unconsolidated sales. So when you look at our equity income, we're seeing a benefit that come through equity income. And as equity (inaudible) sales, we're seeing about a 15 basis point benefit just even out of equity income on its own.

因此，另一件事要補充的是，當 Swamy 指的是銷售成長時，我們開始看到大趨勢的轉折點，並且大多數大趨勢都在 P&V 組中，Swamy 也指的是未合併的銷售。因此，當您查看我們的股權收入時，我們會看到股權收入的好處。至於股權（聽不清楚）銷售，我們甚至看到股權收入本身也帶來了 15 個基點的收益。

Okay. That's super helpful. Maybe just one more quick one. If I'm not mistaken, I think you did push out your megatrend breakeven by a year. And I just want to make sure, is that basically solely related to some of the slower EV development you've talked about? Or is there anything else going on there?

好的。這非常有幫助。也許只是再快一點。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為您確實將大趨勢損益平衡點推遲了一年。我只是想確定一下，這基本上僅與您談到的一些較慢的電動車開發有關嗎？或者有其他事情發生嗎？

No. It's purely related to the volume and programs being pushed out, Joseph. Nothing different. And like I said, again, we'll continue to look at it from R&D and spend and all that stuff to see what opportunities we have to bring it back.

不，這純粹與推出的數量和節目有關，約瑟夫。沒什麼不同。正如我所說，我們將繼續從研發和支出等方面來審視它，看看我們有什麼機會將其帶回來。

Our final question is from the line of Michael Glen with Raymond James.

我們的最後一個問題來自邁克爾·格倫和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

The $900 million of megatrend spending, that sits as part of the $1.2 billion. Are you able to give kind of a rough breakdown of what those buckets consist of across the segments?

9 億美元的大趨勢支出是 12 億美元的一部分。您能否對這些桶子在各個細分市場中的組成進行粗略的細分？

Yes. Michael, I think typically, when we do that, there is some, call it, cross synergies going between whether it's software or whether some other aspects of it. But predominantly, it is in the electrification and the ADAS area. It will be difficult to break it down exactly what those are. There is some overlapping areas that we do spend to keep the synergies where we need to.

是的。邁克爾，我認為通常，當我們這樣做時，無論是軟體還是軟體的其他方面，都會產生一些交叉協同效應。但主要是在電氣化和 ADAS 領域。很難準確地分解它們是什麼。我們確實在一些重疊領域投入資金，以保持我們需要的協同效應。

So Michael, just to be (inaudible), the vast majority of it is in the P&V segment.

所以邁克爾，只是（聽不清楚），絕大多數都在 P&V 領域。

Right.

正確的。

Okay. And how do we think about -- if you -- like are you able to shut that level of spend, like the $1.2 billion if we're thinking about that. Are you able to turn that off pretty quickly?

好的。我們如何考慮——如果你——你是否能夠關閉這一支出水平，例如 12 億美元，如果我們正在考慮這一點。你能很快把它關掉嗎？

It depends on the projects, the part associated with engineering or efforts that are towards the launch of an awarded program, we have to be cautious, and we work with the customers to see how we can work through it. And again, the $1.2 billion is the gross spend at the end of the day, right? So some of it will be recovered on awarded programs, and we have to make sure we keep the efforts going.

這取決於專案、與工程相關的部分或啟動獲獎專案的努力，我們必須謹慎，我們與客戶合作，看看如何完成它。再說一次，12 億美元是最終的總支出，對吧？因此，其中一些將透過獲獎項目收回，我們必須確保我們繼續努力。

On the future, like if you're looking at a specific project out 3 or 4 years and there is not a specified program associated with it, then obviously, we can turn that off or defer it to the future.

就未來而言，如果您正在考慮 3 或 4 年後的特定項目，並且沒有與之相關的指定計劃，那麼顯然，我們可以將其關閉或推遲到未來。

And just one more. So if we think of the history of megatrend spending, how do we -- and in terms of what we've seen from the results, like what's the takeaway that we should have with respect to return on invested capital with these investments up until now? Because it just -- it doesn't look good from what we've seen so far? I'm just looking for some commentary that works against that in terms of we're not seeing what's taking place being the surface or something like that?

還有一個。因此，如果我們思考大趨勢支出的歷史，我們如何——從我們從結果中看到的情況來看，到目前為止，我們應該從這些投資的投資資本回報率中得到什麼結論？因為從我們目前所看到的來看，它看起來不太好？我只是在尋找一些與此相反的評論，因為我們沒有看到表面正在發生什麼或類似的事情？

Yes. We've talked about this $900 million for a few years now, right? And they're all a part of the megatrend spend for programs that we have won and are launching and there are some which are actually for the evolution of the product line going into the future. So we don't have a melting ice cube.

是的。我們已經談論這 9 億美元好幾年了，對吧？它們都是我們已經贏得和正在啟動的項目大趨勢支出的一部分，其中一些實際上是為了產品線未來的發展。所以我們沒有融化的冰塊。

This is a long-term view of how to keep stability in the business as the industry is evolving. How we go about it is just as we get a project, we look at what programs and what platforms, which customers, what is the market size and what is our right to win. Those are some of the questions we answer before we start investing on a project.

這是在行業不斷發展的過程中如何保持業務穩定的長期觀點。我們的做法就像我們拿到一個專案一樣，我們會看看有哪些專案、哪些平台、哪些客戶、市場規模有多大以及我們的獲勝權利是什麼。這些是我們開始投資專案之前要回答的一些問題。

The one way to measure it is the program wins that we are getting. Like we talked about the megatrends going in revenue from '22 in a few hundred million to 2027, right? And as I mentioned in my previous comments that we are on track for ADAS, we are on track for electrification managed sales and on track for battery enclosures. So that's a measure of the return we are getting and also getting the mix that we need. That means the product line is evolving as the industry and the car of the future is evolving.

衡量它的一種方法是我們獲得的計劃勝利。就像我們談到從 22 年的幾億到 2027 年的收入大趨勢一樣，對嗎？正如我在之前的評論中提到的那樣，我們正在推進 ADAS、電氣化管理銷售和電池外殼的發展。因此，這是我們獲得的回報以及我們所需的組合的衡量標準。這意味著產品線隨著產業和未來汽車的發展而不斷發展。

So that's the discipline we have, and we feel pretty good how we are going about it. And like I said, we continue to look at it as market conditions change.

這就是我們的紀律，我們對如何做到這一點感覺很好。正如我所說，隨著市場狀況的變化，我們將繼續關注它。

So thanks, everyone, for listening in today. I'm pleased with the progress we made in 2023 and want to reassure we remain highly focused on executing our strategy and meeting our mid- and long-term outlook, and we are confident that we can achieve them. Thank you, and have a great day.

謝謝大家今天的收聽。我對我們在 2023 年取得的進展感到高興，並希望向大家保證，我們將繼續高度專注於執行我們的策略並實現我們的中長期前景，並且我們有信心能夠實現這些目標。謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。