Magna International Inc (MGA) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(audio in progress) Joining me today are Swamy Kotagiri and Pat McCann.

（音訊正在進行中）今天加入我的是 Swamy Kotagiri 和 Pat McCann。

Yesterday, our Board of Directors met and approved our financial results for the third quarter of 2024 and our updated outlook for 2024.

昨天，我們的董事會召開會議並批准了 2024 年第三季的財務業績以及更新後的 2024 年展望。

We issued a press release this morning outlining our results.

我們今天早上發布了一份新聞稿，概述了我們的結果。

You'll find the press release, today's conference call webcast, the slide presentation to go along with the call and our updated quarterly financial review all in the Investor Relations section of our website at magna.com.

您可以在我們網站 Magna.com 的投資者關係部分找到新聞稿、今天的電話會議網路廣播、電話會議的幻燈片演示以及更新的季度財務回顧。

Before we get started, just as a reminder, the discussion today may contain forward-looking information or forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities legislation.

在我們開始之前，提醒一下，今天的討論可能包含適用證券立法含義內的前瞻性資訊或前瞻性陳述。

Such statements involve certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties, which may cause the company's actual or future results and performance to be materially different from those expressed or implied in these statements.

此類陳述涉及某些風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致公司的實際或未來結果和績效與這些陳述中明示或暗示的結果和績效有重大差異。

Please refer to today's press release for a complete description of our safe harbor disclaimer.

請參閱今天的新聞稿，以了解我們安全港免責聲明的完整說明。

Please also refer to the reminder slide included in our presentation that relates to our commentary today.

另請參閱我們簡報中與我們今天的評論相關的提醒幻燈片。

With that, I'll pass the call over to Swamy.

這樣，我會將電話轉給 Swamy。

Thank you, Louis.

謝謝你，路易斯。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I appreciate you joining our call today.

感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

As always, let's jump right in.

像往常一樣，讓我們直接開始吧。

Let me highlight a few key takeaways before we get into the details of the quarter.

在我們討論本季的細節之前，讓我先強調一些關鍵要點。

We are mitigating industry headwinds, including lower production volumes in each of our core regions and continue to execute with an adjusted EBIT margin of 5.8%, in line with Q3 2023 despite 4% lower global vehicle production.

我們正在緩解產業逆風，包括每個核心地區產量下降，並繼續以 5.8% 的調整後息稅前利潤率執行，與 2023 年第三季一致，儘管全球汽車產量下降 4%。

We expect our adjusted EBIT margin to be in the 5.4% and 5.5% range for 2024.

我們預計 2024 年調整後的息稅前利潤率將在 5.4% 至 5.5% 之間。

Despite softer-than-anticipated vehicle production in North America and Europe, which has negatively impacted sales, we still expect our adjusted EBIT margin to be within our original 5.4% to 6% range from our February outlook which highlights effective cost-saving strategies we have executed on.

儘管北美和歐洲的汽車產量低於預期，對銷售產生了負面影響，但我們仍然預計調整後的息稅前利潤率將在2 月份展望中的最初5.4% 至6% 範圍內，這凸顯了我們有效的成本節約策略。

We continue to expect margin expansion in 2024 compared to 2023.

我們繼續預計 2024 年的利潤率將較 2023 年擴大。

Operational excellence activities remain on track to collectively contribute about 75 basis points to margin expansion during '24 and '25, and we are benefiting from our ongoing restructuring activities and the $90 million of reduced gross megatrend engineering spend for 2024.

卓越營運活動仍有望在 24 年和 25 年期間共同為利潤擴張貢獻約 75 個基點，我們正受益於我們正在進行的重組活動以及 2024 年大趨勢工程總支出減少 9000 萬美元。

While we are reducing our spend, we maintain confidence in our long-term positioning and ability to reap the rewards of recent investments.

在我們減少支出的同時，我們對我們的長期定位和獲得近期投資回報的能力保持信心。

We have a continued focus on strong free cash flow generation and capital discipline.

我們持續關注強大的自由現金流產生和資本紀律。

We have further lowered our expected CapEx range by another $100 million for a reduction of up to $300 million for 2024 compared to our February outlook, and we are maintaining our free cash flow outlook range at $600 million to $800 million.

與 2 月的展望相比，我們將 2024 年的預期資本支出範圍再下調了 1 億美元，最多減少了 3 億美元，並將自由現金流前景範圍維持在 6 億至 8 億美元。

And we are leveraging the elements within our control, further reinforcing our conviction in our growing free cash flow beyond this year.

我們正在利用我們控制範圍內的因素，進一步堅定我們對今年之後自由現金流不斷增長的信念。

As a result of this, we are planning to restart meaningful share repurchases this quarter.

因此，我們計劃在本季重啟有意義的股票回購。

We continue to focus on free cash flow generation and capital discipline to preserve our ability to return capital to shareholders while ensuring balance sheet health.

我們繼續關注自由現金流的產生和資本紀律，以保持我們向股東返還資本的能力，同時確保資產負債表的健康。

Turning to a high-level review of the numbers for the third quarter for 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2023.

與 2023 年第三季相比，我們對 2024 年第三季的數據進行了高層審查。

Consolidated sales were $10.3 billion, down 4% mainly reflecting lower production in our key markets and the divestiture of a controlling interest in our metal forming operations in India, partially offset by new program launches.

綜合銷售額為 103 億美元，下降 4%，主要反映了我們主要市場的產量下降以及印度金屬成型業務控股權的剝離，但新計劃的推出部分抵消了這一影響。

Despite the challenging production environment, including Detroit 3 North American production being down 12% in the quarter, we posted 1% sales growth over market.

儘管生產環境充滿挑戰，包括本季底特律 3 北美產量下降 12%，但我們的銷售額仍比市場成長 1%。

Adjusted EBIT was $594 million, up $17 million from Q2 2024 despite sequentially lower vehicle production in all key regions.

儘管所有關鍵地區的汽車產量連續下降，但調整後息稅前利潤為 5.94 億美元，比 2024 年第二季增加 1,700 萬美元。

Adjusted EPS came in at $1.28, inclusive of approximately $0.10 of net impact associated with the higher income tax rate, which Pat will cover later.

調整後每股收益為 1.28 美元，其中包括與較高所得稅率相關的約 0.10 美元的淨影響，帕特稍後將對此進行介紹。

And free cash flow generated in the quarter was $174 million, a strong $151 million increase from last (inaudible) remain unchanged.

本季產生的自由現金流為 1.74 億美元，較上一季大幅增加 1.51 億美元（聽不清楚），維持不變。

We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet, ample liquidity and high investment-grade ratings to provide flexibility to invest for the future and manage through downturns.

我們持續保持強勁的資產負債表、充足的流動性和高投資級評級，為未來投資和應對經濟低迷提供靈活性。

As we continue to invest for profitable growth, we also regularly review and refine our product portfolio to ensure all business clients are aligned with our strategy to be a leading player in relevant markets and to generate value for shareholders.

在我們繼續投資以實現獲利成長的同時，我們也定期審查和完善我們的產品組合，以確保所有企業客戶都符合我們的策略，成為相關市場的領導者並為股東創造價值。

And as we have for many years, we intend to continue returning capital to shareholders.

正如我們多年來所做的那樣，我們打算繼續向股東返還資本。

Following a period of heightened investment, we are focused on returning to a more historical cadence and returning capital to shareholders.

經過一段時期的投資增加後，我們的重點是回歸歷史節奏並向股東返還資本。

Overall, our disciplined, profitable approach to growth has served Magna and our shareholders well over the years and will remain a foundational principle going forward.

總體而言，多年來，我們嚴謹、盈利的成長方式為麥格納和我們的股東帶來了良好的服務，並將繼續成為未來的基本原則。

At the end of Q3, we had about $3.7 billion in liquidity, including about $1.1 billion in cash.

截至第三季末，我們擁有約 37 億美元的流動性，其中包括約 11 億美元的現金。

We have been reducing our adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio for a peak of about 2.2x in 2023.

我們一直在降低調整後債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率，到 2023 年高峰約為 2.2 倍。

Currently, our ratio is at 1.93, and we are on a path to returning to our targeted range.

目前，我們的比率為 1.93，我們正在回歸目標範圍。

When we talk about returning to a normal cadence, they look at the past dozen years, provides some context to our capital allocation strategy.

當我們談論恢復正常節奏時，他們回顧了過去十幾年，為我們的資本配置策略提供了一些背景。

Overall, we believe our long-term approach to investing for future value creation, almost 90% of which has been capital spending including for new product areas, programs and geographies to bolster our establish strong market positions.

總體而言，我們相信我們為未來價值創造而進行的長期投資方法，其中近 90% 是資本支出，包括新產品領域、項目和地區的資本支出，以鞏固我們建立強大的市場地位。

After a more recent period of investment in battery enclosure assembly capacity to support the ongoing transition to EVs, our CapEx as a percent of sales is on a path to more normal levels of mid-4% next year and around 4% by 2026.

經過最近一段時間對電池外殼組裝產能的投資以支持向電動車的持續過渡，我們的資本支出佔銷售額的百分比明年將達到 4% 左右的更正常水平，到 2026 年將達到 4% 左右。

And over the same 2013 to 2023 period, we returned about $15 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

在 2013 年至 2023 年期間，我們以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還了約 150 億美元。

As you can see, following a period of elevated investment in 2023, 2024 to normalize starting in 2025.

正如您所看到的，繼 2023 年投資增加期之後，2024 年投資將在 2025 年開始正常化。

With our free cash flow generation this year and our confidence in further free cash flow growth beyond 2024, we are optimizing value creation by meaningfully increasing our return of capital to shareholders beyond our consistent dividend policy.

憑藉今年自由現金流的產生以及我們對 2024 年之後自由現金流進一步增長的信心，我們正在透過在我們一貫的股息政策之外有意義地增加股東資本回報來優化價值創造。

Our Board approved a share repurchase plan for up to 10% of Magna's public float or over 28 million shares.

我們的董事會批准了一項股份回購計劃，回購麥格納公眾持股的 10%，超過 2,800 萬股。

We expect to restart meaningful share repurchases this quarter.

我們預計本季將重啟有意義的股票回購。

The repurchases are in addition to our ongoing quarterly dividend.

這些回購是在我們正在進行的季度股息之外進行的。

We believe this capital allocation strategy provides the continued flexibility to both support future growth and further return capital to our shareholders.

我們相信，這種資本配置策略提供了持續的靈活性，既可以支持未來的成長，又可以進一步向股東返還資本。

In summary, we are responding to the volatile operating environment and are focused on margin expansion, free cash flow generation and increasing return on capital.

總之，我們正在應對不穩定的經營環境，並專注於利潤率擴張、自由現金流的產生和資本回報率的提高。

With that, I'll pass the call over to Pat.

這樣，我會將電話轉給帕特。

Thanks, Swamy, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝斯瓦米，大家早安。

As Swamy indicated, we continue to mitigate the impact of ongoing industry challenges.

正如斯瓦米所指出的，我們將繼續減輕當前行業挑戰的影響。

Comparing the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2023, consolidated sales were $10.3 billion, 4% lower than Q3 2023 and in line with a 4% decrease in global light vehicle production.

2024 年第三季與 2023 年第三季相比，合併銷售額為 103 億美元，比 2023 年第三季下降 4%，與全球輕型汽車產量下降 4% 的情況一致。

On an organic basis, we posted a 1% weighted growth over market for the quarter.

從有機角度來看，我們本季的加權成長率較市場成長 1%。

Adjusted EBIT was $594 million, and adjusted EBIT margin was unchanged at 5.8%.

調整後息稅前利潤為 5.94 億美元，調整後息稅前利潤率維持 5.8% 不變。

Adjusted EPS came in at $1.28, down 12% year-over-year, mainly reflecting slightly lower EBIT and higher income taxes, which cost us about $0.10. The higher tax rate was largely related to noncash foreign exchange losses, including on certain deferred tax assets that are not deductible for income tax purposes.

調整後每股收益為 1.28 美元，年減 12%，主要反映了息稅前利潤略有下降和所得稅較高，這使我們損失了約 0.10 美元。較高的稅率主要與非現金外匯損失有關，包括某些不可扣除所得稅的遞延稅資產。

And free cash flow generated in the quarter was $174 million, a substantial increase compared to $23 million in the third quarter of 2023.

該季度產生的自由現金流為 1.74 億美元，較 2023 年第三季的 2,300 萬美元大幅成長。

During the quarter, we paid dividends of $138 million.

本季度，我們支付了 1.38 億美元的股息。

And with respect to our outlook, we are once again lowering our capital spending range and maintaining our expectations for 2024 free cash flow.

就我們的前景而言，我們再次降低資本支出範圍並維持對 2024 年自由現金流的預期。

Finally, we recognized $196 million of other income from Fisker-related deferred revenue as a result of the cancellation of the manufacturing agreements this past quarter.

最後，由於上個季度取消了製造協議，我們從與 Fisker 相關的遞延收入中確認了 1.96 億美元的其他收入。

Let me take you through some of the details.

讓我帶您了解一些細節。

North America and China light vehicle production were each down 6% and production in Europe declined 2% netting to a 4% decline in global production.

北美和中國輕型汽車產量分別下降 6%，歐洲產量下降 2%，全球產量下降 4%。

Breaking down North American production further, while overall production in the third quarter decreased 6%, production by our Detroit-based customers declined 12%.

進一步細分北美產量，雖然第三季整體產量下降了 6%，但底特律客戶的產量卻下降了 12%。

Our consolidated sales were $10.3 billion compared to $10.7 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

我們的綜合銷售額為 103 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 107 億美元。

On an organic basis, our sales decreased 4% year-over-year for a 1% growth over market in the third quarter despite negative production mix from lower D3 production in North America.

從有機角度來看，儘管北美 D3 產量下降導致生產組合出現負成長，但第三季我們的銷售額年減 4%，但比市場成長 1%。

The lower global vehicle production, end of production of certain programs, the divestiture of a controlling interest in our metal forming operations in India and normal course customer price givebacks were partially offset by the launch of new programs and increases to recover certain higher input costs.

全球汽車產量下降、某些項目的生產結束、印度金屬成型業務控股權的剝離以及正常的客戶價格回饋被新項目的啟動和為收回某些較高投入成本而增加的部分抵消。

Adjusted EBIT was $594 million, and adjusted EBIT margin was 5.8%, in line with Q3 2023.

調整後息稅前利潤為 5.94 億美元，調整後息稅前利潤率為 5.8%，與 2023 年第三季持平。

The EBIT percentage in the quarter reflects 75 basis points of net discrete items due to higher net favorable commercial items, including approximately 50 basis points of net unfavorable items in the third quarter of 2023 partially offset by higher net warranty costs and supply chain premiums partially as a result of a supplier bankruptcy and 50 basis points of net operational improvements including operational excellence activities, partially offset by higher net input new facility and launch costs.

本季的息稅前利潤百分比反映了淨離散項目的75 個基點，原因是淨有利商業項目增加，其中包括2023 年第三季約50 個基點的淨不利項目，部分被淨保固成本和供應鏈溢價的增加所抵消。

These were offset by volumes and other items, which collectively impact us by about negative 90 basis points.

這些被銷售和其他項目所抵消，這些項目總共對我們產生了約 90 個基點的負面影響。

These include reduced earnings on lower sales and lower vehicle assembly volumes partially offset by the impact of the UAW strike in the third quarter of 2023 and negative 40 basis points related to lower equity income largely as a result of net favorable commercial items and lower unconsolidated sales in our LG Magna joint venture, partially offset by lower launch costs.

其中包括銷售下降和車輛組裝量下降導致的收益減少，部分被2023 年第三季UAW 罷工的影響所抵消，以及與股本收入下降相關的負40 個基點，這主要是由於淨有利的商業項目和未合併銷售額的下降我們的 LG Magna 合資企業，部分被較低的發射成本所抵消。

Interest expense increased $5 million, mainly due to higher interest rates on the debt refinancing during 2023 and 2024.

利息支出增加了 500 萬美元，主要是由於 2023 年和 2024 年債務再融資利率上升。

Our adjusted effective income tax rate came in at 27.2%, significantly higher than Q3 of last year due to unfavorable foreign exchange adjustments recognized for US GAAP purposes and a change in the mix of earnings.

由於美國公認會計原則的不利外匯調整以及獲利組合的變化，我們調整後的有效所得稅率為 27.2%，顯著高於去年第三季。

Net income was $369 million compared to $419 million in Q3 of 2023, mainly reflecting lower adjusted EBIT and higher income tax expense.

淨利潤為 3.69 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 4.19 億美元，主要反映了調整後息稅前利潤的下降和所得稅費用的上升。

And adjusted diluted EPS was $1.28, including approximately $0.10 associated with the higher income tax rate compared to $1.46 last year.

調整後攤薄每股收益為 1.28 美元，其中包括與去年 1.46 美元較高的所得稅率相關的約 0.10 美元。

Turning to a review of our cash flows and investment activities.

轉向對我們的現金流和投資活動的審查。

In the third quarter of 2024, we generated $785 million in cash from operations before changes in working capital and invested $58 million in working capital.

2024 年第三季度，我們在營運資本變動前的營運中產生了 7.85 億美元現金，並投資了 5,800 萬美元的營運資本。

Investment activities in the quarter included $476 million for fixed assets and $115 million increase in investments, other assets and intangibles.

本季的投資活動包括固定資產 4.76 億美元以及投資、其他資產和無形資產增加 1.15 億美元。

Overall, we generated free cash flow of $174 million in Q3 compared to $23 million in the third quarter of 2023 and we are maintaining our free cash flow expectations of $600 million to $800 million for 2024 despite the challenging industry environment.

整體而言，我們第三季的自由現金流為1.74 億美元，而2023 年第三季為2,300 萬美元，儘管產業環境充滿挑戰，但我們仍維持2024 年6 億至8 億美元的自由現金流預期。

And we continue to return capital to shareholders, paying $138 million in dividends in the third quarter.

我們繼續向股東返還資本，第三季支付了 1.38 億美元的股息。

In addition, as Swamy noted, we intend to begin repurchasing our shares this quarter, which demonstrates our confidence in our free cash flow profile and our focus on shareholder value.

此外，正如斯瓦米指出的那樣，我們打算在本季開始回購股票，這表明我們對自由現金流狀況和對股東價值的關注充滿信心。

Next, I will cover our updated 2024 outlook, which incorporates reduced vehicle production in all key regions.

接下來，我將介紹我們更新的 2024 年展望，其中包括所有關鍵地區的汽車產量減少。

We also assume exchange rates and our outlook will approximate recent rates.

我們也假設匯率和我們的前景將接近最近的匯率。

We now expect a slightly higher Canadian dollar, euro and Chinese RMB for 2024 relative to our previous outlook.

目前，我們預計 2024 年加幣、歐元和人民幣將比我們之前的預期小幅走高。

We are narrowing and lowering our expected sales range, reflecting lower volumes in North America and Europe, partially offset by positive foreign exchange mainly from the higher euro.

我們正在縮小和降低預期銷售範圍，反映出北美和歐洲銷售下降，但主要被歐元走高帶來的正面外匯所部分抵消。

We have narrowed our adjusted EBIT margin range to 5.4% to 5.5% as we are now 3/4 of the way through 2024.

2024 年已過 3/4，我們已將調整後息稅前利潤率範圍縮小至 5.4% 至 5.5%。

Consistent with our original outlook commentary in February, customer recoveries and lower net engineering spend contributed to higher margins in Q3 compared to what we saw in the first half of the year, and they are expected to help drive margins to the highest level of the year in Q4.

與我們 2 月最初的展望評論一致，客戶恢復和淨工程支出下降導致第三季利潤率高於上半年，預計將有助於將利潤率推至今年最高水準在第四季度。

Our reduced equity income range largely reflects lower expected unconsolidated sales of EV components.

我們減少的股權收入範圍很大程度上反映了電動車零件預期未合併銷售額的下降。

We raised our effective income tax rate to approximately 23%, mainly due to the weak Mexican peso relative to the US dollar, leading to unfavorable foreign exchange adjustments incurred for US GAAP purposes.

我們將有效所得稅率提高至約23%，主要是由於墨西哥比索相對於美元疲軟，導緻美國公認會計準則下的不利外匯調整。

We have narrowed and lowered our adjusted net income to largely reflect lower EBIT and the higher income tax rate.

我們縮小並降低了調整後的淨利潤，以在很大程度上反映較低的息稅前利潤和較高的所得稅率。

We now expect capital spending to be in the $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion range.

我們現在預計資本支出將在 22 億美元至 23 億美元之間。

This is down another $100 million from our previous outlook, now totaling up to $300 million for the full year, compared to our February outlook.

這比我們先前的預期又減少了 1 億美元，與我們 2 月的預期相比，現在全年總計高達 3 億美元。

This mainly reflects our continued focus on capital discipline and offsetting the impacts from a weaker vehicle production environment.

這主要反映了我們持續關注資本紀律並抵消汽車生產環境疲軟的影響。

And our interest expense and free cash flow expectations are unchanged from our previous outlook.

我們的利息支出和自由現金流預期與先前的展望相同。

To summarize the quarter, we had solid operating performance, and we continue to execute despite a more challenging environment with adjusted EBIT margin in line with Q3 of 2023 despite lower vehicle production in all key regions.

總結本季度，我們擁有穩健的經營業績，儘管環境更具挑戰性，但我們仍繼續執行，調整後的息稅前利潤率與2023 年第三季度一致，儘管所有關鍵地區的汽車產量均較低。

We continue to be focused on margin expansion, capital discipline and free cash flow generation.

我們持續關注利潤擴張、資本紀律和自由現金流的產生。

With respect to our updated 2024 outlook, we are reducing the range for adjusted EBIT margin, lowering our capital spending once again and maintaining our free cash flow expectations for the year.

關於我們更新的 2024 年展望，我們正在縮小調整後息稅前利潤率的範圍，再次降低我們的資本支出，並維持我們今年的自由現金流預期。

We plan to restart meaningful share buybacks in Q4, as always, seeking to optimize value creation.

我們計劃一如既往地在第四季度重啟有意義的股票回購，以尋求優化價值創造。

And we continue to work to mitigate the impact of market challenges we are facing.

我們將繼續努力減輕我們面臨的市場挑戰的影響。

Thank you for your attention this morning.

感謝您今天早上的關注。

We would be happy to answer your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) John Murphy, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）John Murphy，美國銀行。

Just maybe a first question on the fourth quarter implied, it seems like sales on a year-over-year basis at the midpoint would be about flat and the margin or the adjusted EBIT margin, 6.4% to 6.7%, sort of in light of everything that's going on right now, those are pretty strong implied results.

也許第四季的第一個問題暗示，中點的銷售額似乎與去年同期持平，而利潤率或調整後的息稅前利潤率為 6.4% 至 6.7%，這在某種程度上是考慮到現在發生的一切，這些都是非常強烈的隱含結果。

Just curious if there's anything rolling on as far as new business in the fourth quarter and sort of what's the sort of the confidence in what looks like a very good fourth quarter, are there more recoveries coming in?

只是好奇第四季的新業務是否有進展，以及對看起來非常好的第四季的信心是什麼，是否會有更多的復甦？

I mean, what's driving this?

我的意思是，是什麼推動了這一點？

I think there is nothing significant in terms of rolling on or off other than the normal cadence of launches that happened in Q3.

我認為除了第三季發生的正常發布節奏之外，在啟動或停止方面沒有什麼重要的意義。

Q3 and maybe slightly into Q4.

第三季度，也許會稍微進入第四季。

All our assumptions are based on not just the numbers but EDIs and the releases that we are seeing.

我們所有的假設不僅基於數字，還基於 EDI 和我們所看到的版本。

Other than that, I think there is nothing that is significant.

除此之外，我認為沒有什麼重要的事情。

There is a portion of recoveries that we've always said are towards the back half of the year.

我們一直說，有一部分復甦是在今年下半年。

But I wouldn't say they are any significantly different in fourth quarter than they were in the third quarter.

但我不會說第四季與第三季有任何顯著不同。

Okay.

好的。

And then just maybe a follow-up to that.

然後也許只是後續行動。

Given the strength of what looks like 6.2% margins in the second half of the year and the great work you guys have done on rationalization.

鑑於今年下半年 6.2% 的利潤率以及你們在合理化方面所做的出色工作。

How do you think we should think about sort of -- I want to get into 2025, I'm sure you're not going to give exact outlook there.

你認為我們應該如何考慮——我想進入 2025 年，我確信你不會給出確切的前景。

But Pat, as we think about sort of the walk off point for 2024, given that you're putting up what looks to be very good results in a very tough environment in the second half with the benefits of some of this restructuring, what do you think the correct walk-off point is for margins as we think forward, forget about even saying 2025 exactly, but the basis that we should be thinking of?

但是帕特，當我們考慮 2024 年的結束點時，考慮到您在下半年非常艱難的環境中取得了看起來非常好的結果，並受益於一些重組的好處，該怎麼辦？點是我們展望未來時的利潤率，甚至忘記確切地說2025 年，但我們應該考慮的基礎是什麼？

John, like you said, I think it's difficult for 2025.

約翰，就像你說的，我認為 2025 年會很困難。

But I think one of the key things that we talked about is the 75 basis points of margin improvement between '24 and '25.

但我認為我們討論的關鍵事情之一是 24 年至 25 年間利潤率提高了 75 個基點。

And I would say we are on track.

我想說我們正在步入正軌。

And with very little left in '24, we feel good that we have achieved that.

24 年所剩無幾，我們很高興我們已經實現了這一目標。

So we have that operational run rate with whatever we end with Q4, which we are talking about full year being 5.4% to 5.5% and that we have the operational improvement of the 35 to 40 basis points going into '25.

因此，無論第四季度結束，我們的營運運行率都是如此，我們所說的全年運行率為 5.4％ 至 5.5％，並且進入 25 年我們的運營改善了 35 至 40 個基點。

And I would say there's a few other things we continue to look at.

我想說的是，我們還會繼續關注其他一些事情。

So I would say that's the best way to look at how we're going to end this year going into '25.

所以我想說，這是了解我們今年將如何結束進入 25 年的最佳方式。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And just lastly on the CapEx, is most of the pullback year on the battery enclosure and other EV spending?

最後在資本支出方面，電池外殼和其他電動車支出今年大部分時間都在縮減嗎？

And I mean, how should we think about sort of that commitment to that business, I would imagine it's still pretty strong.

我的意思是，我們應該如何考慮對該業務的某種承諾，我認為它仍然相當強大。

But I mean, is there a lower capacity level that you think you might need going forward?

但我的意思是，您認為未來可能需要更低的容量水平嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think, John, you kind of hit the nail on the head.

我想，約翰，你說得一針見血。

There's a couple of points to make just a couple of contextual and a couple current.

有幾點可以讓我們只介紹一些背景知識和一些當前知識。

In '23 and '24, I would say the significant investments above the normal water level has been in the BES segment, specifically for battery enclosures.

我想說，在 23 年和 24 年，BES 領域的重大投資超過了正常水位，特別是電池外殼。

You're right on that.

你是對的。

I would say most of the significant heavy lifting on that topic is behind us, unless there is new programs, but those new programs would be more program capital rather than brick-and-mortar and other things.

我想說，除非有新計劃，否則主題的大部分重大繁重工作已經過去，但這些新計劃將更多是計劃資本，而不是實體和其他東西。

And John, you might know, but just for others and everyone, this is normal course.

約翰，你可能知道，但對其他人和每個人來說，這是正常的過程。

If you go back, I know I'm going a little bit into the history, but into the mid and late '90s when Magna was getting into the frame business, our CapEx to sales ratio intensity was in the level of 9 and 10 for about three or four years.

如果你回顧一下，我知道我要稍微回顧一下歷史，但是到了 90 年代中後期，當麥格納進入車架業務時，我們的資本支出與銷售比率強度處於 9 和 10 的水平。 。

And that business, we still continue to flourish after 30 years.

而這項業務，30 年後我們仍然繼續蓬勃發展。

So the battery enclosures business is in a similar way in the same design space for the vehicle, similar capital intensity, we feel we have built that foundation now.

因此，電池外殼業務在相同的車輛設計空間中以類似的方式，類似的資本強度，我們覺得我們現在已經建立了這個基礎。

And as I have always said, the EV is a secular trend.

正如我一直所說，電動車是一種長期趨勢。

The trajectory is a little bit unpredictable.

軌跡有點難以預測。

But when it comes, that will serve as a tailwind for us given the foundation is done and behind us.

但當它到來時，這將成為我們的順風，因為基礎已經完成並且在我們身後。

Maybe just one last follow-up on that.

也許只是最後一次後續行動。

The payoff pitch on that investment is not necessarily just this next product cycle.

該投資的回報不一定只是下一個產品週期。

It might be many product cycles going forward.

未來可能會有許多產品週期。

Is that a fair statement, Swamy?

這句話公平嗎，斯瓦米？

That's fair, John.

這很公平，約翰。

I think three buckets I always like to consider on big investments like this.

我認為對於這樣的大型投資，我總是喜歡考慮三個面向。

One is more like brick-and-mortar for which you are right.

其中一種更像是您適合的實體店。

It will be multiple design cycles.

這將是多個設計週期。

In the past, we were building prime plants in Ontario, in Mexico, in southern part of US.

過去，我們在安大略省、墨西哥和美國南部建造主要工廠。

So that bucket, you are right.

所以那個桶，你是對的。

The second part is using capacity like stamping presses, castings and so on and so forth.

第二部分是沖壓機、鑄件等產能的利用。

As there is volatility in production, we are using that capacity to bring back some of the outsourced strokes that we have to leverage that and use that capacity right now.

由於生產存在波動，我們正在利用這項能力來帶回一些我們必須利用的外包行程，並立即使用該能力。

And when EVs or the critical programs come back, we can flex back and forth again.

當電動車或關鍵項目回來時，我們可以再次來回調整。

So that's the second bucket.

這是第二個桶子。

Third bucket is really capital specific to programs like assembly capital that is very program dependent.

第三個桶子實際上是特定於程序的資本，例如非常依賴程序的彙編資本。

So that's kind of how I look at the business overall.

這就是我對整個業務的看法。

Tamy Chen, BMO Capital Markets.

Tamy Chen，BMO 資本市場。

Pat, I wanted to ask about the starting of your buyback this quarter Q4, and it's a fairly substantial amount to for the next 12 months.

派特，我想問一下你們本季第四季開始回購的情況，對於接下來的 12 個月來說，這是一個相當大的金額。

It is earlier, I believe, than your previous commentary.

我相信，這比您之前的評論要早。

So I just wanted to better understand what specifically moved this timeline forward.

所以我只是想更了解是什麼具體地推動了這個時間表。

I think my prior understanding was the big hurdle was your leverage that it needed to be below the 1.5x. I see you're still at 1.93x. So can you just talk a bit about what moved the buyback timeline up quite a bit?

我認為我之前的理解是最大的障礙是你的槓桿率需要低於 1.5 倍。我看到你仍然是 1.93x。那麼您能談談是什麼讓回購時間表提前了很多嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think -- as far as the NCIB, we are still looking, as Swamy said, to get back into our long-term ratio of 1% to 1.5%.

我認為，就 NCIB 而言，正如斯瓦米所說，我們仍在尋求恢復 1% 至 1.5% 的長期比率。

I think that's core and foundational to Magna.

我認為這是麥格納的核心和基礎。

When we looked at our business plans and we're -- as we progress through the year, we're getting closer and closer.

當我們審視我們的業務計劃時，隨著這一年的進展，我們越來越接近目標。

So what we were talking about last year was that we were going to initiate buybacks during 2025.

所以我們去年討論的是我們將在 2025 年期間啟動回購。

What we've effectively done is is pulled it ahead, maybe one or two quarters.

我們有效地所做的就是將其提前，也許一兩個季度。

It's not a substantive change.

這不是實質的改變。

It's consistent with where we are.

這與我們所處的位置是一致的。

And I think it really just reflects our view of our execution over the past nine months, our 1.9 is where we expect it to be actually slightly ahead.

我認為這確實反映了我們對過去 9 個月執行情況的看法，我們的 1.9 是我們預計它實際上會稍微領先的地方。

So we're tracking -- and we're pulling it ahead.

所以我們正在跟踪——並且我們正在推動它前進。

I don't think it's a change in our strategy.

我不認為這是我們策略的改變。

It's really just we're accelerating from where we expect it to be.

這實際上只是我們正在從我們預期的地方加速。

Tamy, I would say that our capital allocation principles are unchanged, like Pat said, it's just that we have the confidence of taking the right steps to drive margins and cash flow, including the operational initiatives that I talked about, lowering capital, reducing intimating spend.

Tamy，我想說的是，我們的資本配置原則沒有改變，就像帕特說的那樣，只是我們有信心採取正確的措施來提高利潤率和現金流，包括我談到的營運舉措，降低資本，減少暗示花費。

And as Pat said, looking at what we have in terms of visibility, we believe we can increase the free cash flow even in a relatively modest production environment assumptions.

正如帕特所說，從我們的可見性來看，我們相信即使在相對溫和的生產環境假設下，我們也可以增加自由現金流。

Got it.

知道了。

And just to clarify on that, you don't -- it doesn't sound -- you sound like you foresee any impact or issue to your investment grade rating to pulling back and starting -- sorry, pulling forward and starting the buybacks, no?

只是為了澄清這一點，你不——聽起來不像——你聽起來好像你預見到你的投資評級會出現任何影響或問題，從而撤回並開始——抱歉，撤回並開始回購，不？

So Tamy, I mean, we are not obviously doing this in isolation.

所以塔米，我的意思是，我們顯然並不是孤立地做這件事。

We have had discussions and meetings with the major credit rating agencies.

我們與主要信用評級機構進行了討論和會議。

Obviously, I cannot talk about their decision, but we've walked them through.

顯然，我不能談論他們的決定，但我們已經引導他們完成了。

And this is in a -- this was done in a very meaningful measure discussed with the appropriate parties.

這是透過與有關各方討論的一項非常有意義的措施來完成的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And my other question is on the Power & Vision segment, so it's good to see the margin performance this quarter.

我的另一個問題是關於電力和視覺領域，所以很高興看到本季的利潤率表現。

It's been a bit of a volatile segment, if I think through the quarters this year?

如果我回顧今年的幾個季度，這是一個有點不穩定的部分？

And I'm just trying to put together all the pieces between some of your prior comments about a bit of in-sourcing in China, some OEMs reassessing the entire vehicle architecture.

我只是試圖將您之前關於中國的一些內購、一些原始設備製造商重新評估整個車輛架構的評論中的所有內容放在一起。

So can you just remind us at this point here, how you're thinking about the trajectory of the business, whether it's sales growth, the margin, anything there would be helpful.

那麼，您現在能否提醒我們，您是如何考慮業務發展軌蹟的，無論是銷售成長、利潤率，還是任何有幫助的事情。

Yes, Tamy.

是的，塔米。

I think overall, for the P&V, we have talked about the annual guidance, right?

我認為總體而言，對於 P&V，我們已經討論了年度指導，對嗎？

And I think it's a small change, but not substantial from where we started at the beginning of the year.

我認為這是一個很小的變化，但與我們年初開始的情況相比並不顯著。

And I remember the question asked in the first quarter when we were in the low 2s.

我記得第一季我們處於低潮時提出的問題。

And I said the volatility of whether it's production or program launches and customer recoveries.

我說的是生產或專案啟動以及客戶恢復方面的波動性。

And I came out a little bit and said we expect double of what you saw in the first quarter into the second quarter, just to give you an indication.

我說了一點，我們預計第二季的業績將是第一季的兩倍，只是為了給大家一個指示。

It's actually the volatility of the programs, the customer recoveries, the engineering recoveries when the programs launched, that's what is driving the volatility.

實際上是專案的波動性、客戶恢復狀況、專案啟動時的工程恢復情況，才是導致波動的原因。

It's not about the business.

這與生意無關。

So I think I would look at what we are indicating as the margin range annually rather than look at quarter-by-quarter in that.

因此，我認為我會每年查看我們所指示的利潤範圍，而不是逐季度查看。

Pat, I don't know if you want to add something.

帕特，我不知道你是否想補充一些東西。

Yes.

是的。

I think, Tamy, when you think about the volatility quarter-to-quarter, P&V is burdened with for three big areas.

我認為，Tamy，當你考慮季度與季度之間的波動性時，P&V 承受著三大領域的負擔。

One is equity income really boost margin based on where it is because there's no sales.

一是股權收入確實會提高利潤率，因為沒有銷售。

So that's number one, and we're seeing it move around, and we talked about that even in our comments.

所以這是第一，我們看到它在變化，我們甚至在評論中也談到了這一點。

Number two is we have engineering spend that flexes quarter-to-quarter and then the recoveries that relate to it.

第二是我們的工程支出按季度變化，然後是與之相關的復甦。

So that drives gross margin into the back half of the year.

因此，這將推動毛利率進入今年下半年。

And then I think the third factor is consistent with all the other groups is a lot of our commercial inflationary recoveries, as we said from February onwards are going to be in the back half of the year, and that's what we're expecting.

然後我認為第三個因素與所有其他群體一致的是我們的商業通膨復甦，正如我們所說，從二月開始將在今年下半年出現，這就是我們的預期。

So I think back to Swamy's comment.

所以我回想起斯瓦米的評論。

On a full year basis, I think that, that view is unchanged.

從全年來看，我認為這種觀點沒有改變。

We expect continuing growth in margin within the quarters continue to -- I would still expect to see this this unusual cadence of a weak Q1 as margins grow throughout the year, and that's what we're seeing.

我們預計幾個季度內的利潤率將繼續增長——我仍然預計隨著全年利潤率的增長，第一季會出現這種不同尋常的疲軟節奏，這就是我們所看到的。

And to answer your question on the other part, Tamy, is on ADAS, the only one vehicle program, it was not call it a trend or we have not seen any other program.

Tamy，從另一方面回答你的問題，是關於 ADAS，這是唯一的一個車輛項目，它不被稱為一種趨勢，或者我們還沒有看到任何其他項目。

It was one customer, one change.

這是一位客戶，一次改變。

We still continue to have traction on a lot of large programs in ADAS.

我們仍然繼續關注 ADAS 領域的許多大型專案。

So stay tuned, and we'll keep you posted.

所以請繼續關注，我們會及時通知您。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧喬納斯，摩根士丹利。

It's William Taken on for Adam Jonas.

威廉喬納斯飾演亞當喬納斯。

I'm just curious if you guys are seeing anything new, whether it's program pushouts or just volatility in this quarter, what you expect into 2025, really anything that you're seeing for 2025 that kind of help catalyze the buyback?

我只是好奇你們是否看到了任何新的東西，無論是計劃的推出還是本季度的波動，您對 2025 年的期望，您在 2025 年看到的任何有助於催化回購的東西嗎？

If your question is meant on sourcing and program decisions by the customers.

如果您的問題是關於客戶的採購和專案決策。

Yes, we have seen a bunch of call it delayed, or deferments and we continue to follow that.

是的，我們已經看到很多人稱之為延遲或延期，我們將繼續關注這一點。

But as I said, that is not what's driving the margin expansion into the next year.

但正如我所說，這並不是推動明年利潤率擴張的原因。

These are specific tasks that are at hand on the road map that we have, okay, said in -- I think in the comments and one of the previous questions, the 75 basis points, half of it is already in place.

這些是我們在路線圖上即將完成的具體任務，好吧，我認為在評論和之前的問題之一中，75 個基點，其中一半已經到位。

The other half are based on what we have in place.

另一半則是基於我們現有的情況。

And if there is any other changes in terms of better volumes or EV trajectory changing to a better, all of those will be tailwinds.

如果在更好的銷量或電動車軌跡方面有任何其他變化，所有這些都將是順風。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful, guys.

這很有幫助，夥計們。

And then maybe are you seeing anything new in terms of pricing or mix on the EV side this quarter and in particular, if you're seeing OEMs push for lower pricing as we move into 2025?

然後，也許您會在本季度看到電動車方面的定價或組合方面有什麼新變化，特別是，如果您看到 OEM 在進入 2025 年時推動降低定價？

Not really.

並不真地。

As you know, right, what we're working through right now was a decision two or three years ago in the sourcing in terms and conditions and POs.

如您所知，我們現在正在做的事情是兩三年前在採購條款和條件以及採購訂單方面做出的決定。

So no, we are not seeing anything right now.

所以不，我們現在沒有看到任何東西。

Dan Levy, Barclays.

丹·利維，巴克萊銀行。

I wanted to start first with just a question on the implied guidance for Complete Vehicle segment, there is a substantial step-up in the fourth quarter, both in revenue and margins.

我想先問一個關於整車細分市場隱含指引的問題，第四季的營收和利潤率都有大幅提升。

Maybe you can just give us a reminder what's going on there and the underlying dynamics as you've moved past the Fisker program?

也許您可以提醒我們，當您超越菲斯克計劃時，那裡發生了什麼以及潛在的動態？

Yes, I think the math would shows that I agree.

是的，我認為數學會表明我同意。

And really, the biggest change is coming out of the engineering segment.

事實上，最大的改變來自工程領域。

So everybody's benefit, our complete vehicles has a significant engineering business in it.

因此，每個人都受益，我們的整車擁有重要的工程業務。

And most of that engineering gets a lot of the settlement and the customer negotiations happen in the fourth quarter, and that's our expectation.

大部分的工程都得到了很多和解，客戶談判在第四季進行，這是我們預期。

So as you mentioned, Fisker is behind us.

正如您所提到的，菲斯克在我們身後。

We're in the middle of finalizing negotiations with a couple of other customers related to various programs, and we expect those conversations to happen in the fourth quarter, and that's really what's driving the change in sales and in margin.

我們正在與其他幾位客戶就各種計劃進行最終談判，我們預計這些對話將在第四季度進行，這確實是推動銷售額和利潤率變化的原因。

And is there any update on filling the idled or vacant capacity?

關於填補閒置或空缺產能有何最新進展？

Dan, we continue to have discussions, but nothing significant to talk about outside the, call it, the customer NDAs and discussions.

丹，我們繼續進行討論，但除了客戶保密協議和討論之外，沒有什麼值得討論的。

But I can say there is a few discussions ongoing towards the, I would say, the '26, '27 time frame, more into '27.

但我可以說，針對“26”、“27”時間框架，更多的是“27”，正在進行一些討論。

Got it.

知道了。

As a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the recovery.

作為後續，我想問恢復情況。

So I understand 3Q is a nonrepeat benefit.

所以我理解3Q是一個不可重複的好處。

But what is the outlook on recoveries going forward?

但未來復甦的前景如何？

And specifically, and then you talked to this that you've obviously incurred a fair amount of expense tooling validation expense for different programs that have been delayed, volumes coming in far below anticipated.

具體來說，然後您談到這一點，您顯然為已延遲的不同程序支付了相當數量的工具驗證費用，數量遠低於預期。

So maybe you can just give the tone and tenor of those discussions and the potential for recovery payments down the line?

那麼，也許您可以簡單介紹這些討論的基調和基調，以及未來追回付款的可能性？

I think, Dan, I'll start, and I'm going to have Swamy jump in as far as a customer-facing piece but when you look at the commercial and we have in the discrete items in that role, we talk about the 75 basis points -- 50 basis points of commercial.

我想，丹，我會開始，我會讓斯瓦米跳到面向客戶的部分，但是當你看廣告時，我們在這個角色的離散項目中，我們談論75 個基點——50 個商業基點。

I just want to clarify.

我只是想澄清一下。

I think what we had had was we had commercial headwinds in Q3 of 2023 that aren't recurring.

我認為我們在 2023 年第三季遇到的商業阻力不會再次出現。

So really the impact that we have in Q3 of 2024 are not as significant.

因此，我們在 2024 年第三季的影響實際上並不那麼重大。

And these are commercial recoveries related to various customer negotiations.

這些都是與各種客戶談判相關的商業追償。

And the -- similar to the inflationary recoveries, we expect them in the second half of the year.

與通膨復甦類似，我們預計將在今年下半年實現。

And I think, Dan, the question regarding your tooling and engineering and so on and so forth.

我想，丹，關於你的工具和工程等等的問題。

Even with the deferments and volume reductions, tooling remains agnostic, right?

即使延期和數量減少，工具仍然是不可知的，對嗎？

We get paid on that.

我們因此得到報酬。

And the upfront, there pieces of engineering payments, one that I would say is paid once you get to a certain milestone in the program that is usually pretty good.

前期，有一些工程付款，我想說的是，一旦你達到專案中的某個里程碑，通常就相當不錯了。

The question becomes the amortized engineering into the piece price that becomes a discussion, right?

問題變成了攤銷工程變成了討論的單價，對嗎？

To your second part of the question, the tone and tenor of discussions, they're always tough like anything else, these negotiations or discussions.

對於問題的第二部分，討論的語氣和基調，它們總是像其他任何事情一樣強硬，這些談判或討論。

But I would say we're on track.

但我想說我們正在步入正軌。

They are fair, but we also have no choice that we have to address all the headwinds that we've been facing.

它們是公平的，但我們別無選擇，必須解決我們一直面臨的所有阻力。

And in the spirit of partnership, they do realize, and we put things on the table how we need to be healthy so that we can have the partnership healthy and it's good for the industry.

本著夥伴關係的精神，他們確實意識到，我們把我們需要如何保持健康的事情擺在桌面上，這樣我們才能保持健康的伙伴關係，這對整個行業都有好處。

So yes, they're tough, but we are having those conversations.

所以，是的，他們很難，但我們正在進行這些對話。

Joseph Spak, UBS.

約瑟夫‧斯帕克，瑞銀集團。

It's Alejandra on for Joe. Just sort of following up on the recoveries, Ford publicly talked about sort of supply reimbursements for the BEV program.

亞歷杭德拉替喬上場。為了跟進回收情況，福特公開談論了 BEV 項目的供應補償。

I was wondering if you could sort of give us some timeline as to when you would expect sort of those recoveries.

我想知道您能否給我們一些時間表，說明您預計何時會康復。

Is that sort of more of a 2025 event?

這更像是 2025 年的事件嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's a combination of other things because Ford is a big customer for us, and we look at overall holistically.

我認為這是其他因素的結合，因為福特是我們的大客戶，我們從整體來看。

I think it's difficult to put a specific date given the complexity of various things that are going.

我認為鑑於正在發生的各種事情的複雜性，很難確定具體日期。

It's the overall.

這是整體。

And it's progressing and we'll have a framework that will be there, but I think it will be multiple years as we go through.

它正在取得進展，我們將有一個框架，但我認為這將需要很多年的時間。

And can you give us sort of a little more color like how much you were investing for that program and what was built out already?

您能否給我們更多信息，例如您為該計劃投資了多少以及已經建成了什麼？

And what's still did not get built out for that program?

該計劃還有什麼尚未建造的內容？

That we wouldn't comment on that because of -- you would have a facility, part of the facility, there is capacity allocation and the specific program capital that would go on.

我們不會對此發表評論，因為——你將擁有一個設施，該設施的一部分，有容量分配和將要進行的特定計劃資本。

So it will be difficult to go through it.

所以要經歷它會很困難。

Some of it was in place and some of it was phased, so which was not put in place.

有些已經到位，有些是分階段實施的，所以沒有到位。

So it's a little bit complex question to put a discrete number on.

因此，輸入離散數字是一個有點複雜的問題。

Okay.

好的。

And then maybe just as a follow-up.

然後也許只是作為後續行動。

Can you just give us a little more color on what's driving higher sales quarter-over-quarter at the midpoint based on sort of your production outlook for the year, it looks like production would be down a little more. year-over-year in the fourth quarter.

您能否根據今年的生產前景向我們提供更多關於推動季度環比銷售額成長的因素，看起來產量會進一步下降。第四季同比。

Just maybe some puts and takes on to higher sales in the fourth quarter.

也許只是一些看跌期權和承兌匯票會帶來第四季度更高的銷售額。

The [demand] at consolidated level, Q3 does tend to be a low production period, Alejandro.

亞歷杭德羅，在綜合水準上，第三季的[需求]確實往往是一個低產量時期。

And as Dan mentioned earlier, we are seeing an uptick in sales in our CPA segment, primarily related to the engineering, which wouldn't be production-based but rather finalization of the engineering agreements.

正如 Dan 之前提到的，我們看到 CPA 部門的銷售額有所上升，主要與工程相關，這不是基於生產的，而是基於工程協議的最終確定。

And that would be the biggest driver on the upside, and we have a little bit of foreign exchange tailwinds.

這將是上行的最大推動力，而且我們有一點外匯的推動力。

Tom Narayan, RBC Capital Markets.

湯姆‧納拉揚 (Tom Narayan)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

A question on the buyback on financing the buyback.

關於回購融資的問題。

You mentioned you had $1.1 billion in cash balance, $3.7 billion in total liquidity, potentially more free cash flow coming from lower CapEx.

您提到您擁有 11 億美元的現金餘額，37 億美元的總流動資金，以及來自較低資本支出的潛在更多自由現金流。

And I know you have that 1.93 leverage coming down to 1.5 or 1.5, just putting all that together, in the event production comes down next year as a lot of folks -- some folks are expecting.

我知道，如果明年產量像許多人預期的那樣下降，那麼 1.93 的槓桿率就會下降到 1.5 或 1.5，將所有這些加在一起。

How would you seek to finance given all of these different dynamics, would you reduce the cash balance, dip into liquidity, is your thoughts of paying down debt to get to that leverage ratio and the event EBITDA comes down next year, which a lot of suppliers are talking about.

考慮到所有這些不同的動態，您將如何尋求融資，您是否會減少現金餘額，投入流動性，您是否會考慮償還債務以達到槓桿率，以及明年 EBITDA 下降的情況，這很多供應商正在談論。

Just would love to hear how you think about the different puts and takes?

只是想聽聽您如何看待不同的投入和獲取？

I think like I said, the key thing for us is to have the balance between maintaining the investment-grade rating and sticking to the guardrails that we talked about the 1% to 1.5%, but into the end of the next year, there might be some lumpiness, but that's still kind of like the guiding principle.

我認為就像我說的，對我們來說關鍵是在維持投資級評級和堅持我們談到的 1% 至 1.5% 的護欄之間取得平衡，但到明年年底，可能會有有點笨拙，但這還是有點像指導原則。

As Pat talked about, you look into the visibility of the plan that we have at this point into '25, we have made, I would say, modest set of assumptions for volume production.

正如帕特所說，你看看我們目前在 25 年制定的計劃的可見性，我想說，我們已經對批量生產做出了一系列適度的假設。

That's number two.

這是第二位。

Given all of that, we feel comfortable that we can get to the -- up to the 10% float buyback.

考慮到所有這些，我們對能夠實現高達 10% 的浮動回購感到放心。

But as you know, the share repurchase is we have to balance that with market conditions.

但正如你所知，股票回購是我們必須與市場狀況平衡的。

The market conditions change drastically at that point of time, we'll balance between what we're buying back and what we have in terms of balancing.

那時市場狀況會發生巨大變化，我們將在回購和現有的平衡之間進行平衡。

But this has to be more an industry level change which would affect everybody at that point of time.

但這更多的是產業層面的變化，會影響當時的每個人。

And then we have to relook at how much and what we're doing and how we go about it.

然後我們必須重新審視我們正在做什麼、做了多少以及如何做。

But at this point of time, with very modest assumptions of production into '25, we feel pretty confident that we have a plan in place.

但此時此刻，由於對 25 年生產的假設非常有限，我們非常有信心我們已經制定了計劃。

Yes, I think the only thing I'd add, Tom, is if you go back to when we laid out this plan going back 18 months of our delevering plan, it contemplated that we have term debt that's repayable, we bored against our CP programs and you put that factor in, that's still in place.

是的，湯姆，我想我唯一要補充的是，如果你回到我們制定這個計劃的時候，回溯我們去槓桿化計劃的18 個月，它考慮到我們有可償還的定期債務，我們對我們的CP 感到厭倦程序，你把這個因素放進去，它仍然存在。

And you have to put in perspective that our cash flow expectations that we executed in 2023 against our free cash flow, we continue to expect to execute in 2024.

你必須正確看待我們在 2023 年執行的現金流預期與我們的自由現金流相比，我們仍然預計在 2024 年執行。

So we're just moving along the path.

所以我們只是沿著這條路前進。

And to Tamy's earlier question, we just have more confidence in that path.

對於塔米之前的問題，我們只是對這條路更有信心。

And so I don't think it's going to be a situation, cash might bounce up and down $100 million, $200 million, just depending on timing.

所以我認為這不會是一種情況，現金可能會上下波動 1 億美元、2 億美元，這取決於時機。

But we're going along that path of how we pay down the term debt and stop borrowing on CP.

但我們正在沿著償還定期債務並停止 CP 借款的道路前進。

Okay.

好的。

And the expectation on the better for cash flow that's coming from a combination of potentially lower CapEx and get better EBITDA, right, coming from your, I guess, to the market production assumption?

對現金流更好的預期來自於潛在較低的資本支出和更好的 EBITDA 的結合，對吧，我猜，來自於你對市場產量的假設？

That's right, Tom.

沒錯，湯姆。

It's lower engineering spend, lower CapEx, better EBITDA.

它的工程支出更低，資本支出更低，息稅折舊攤提前利潤更高。

Not just growth of our market is also operational excellence, right?

不僅是我們市場的成長，還有卓越的運營，對嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Right, cost control.

對了，成本控制。

And obviously, I'm sure you guys are seeing a lot of the -- your suppliers in the industry. very cautious on '25.

顯然，我確信你們在業界見過很多供應商。 25年非常謹慎。

There's one OEM customer, which you guys have that's been dramatically cutting production this quarter.

你們有一個 OEM 客戶，本季大幅削減了產量。

And potentially next year, we've heard European OEMs talking about the CO2 cliff on regulatory, which they're worried some of them are trying to shut down plants.

明年，我們可能會聽到歐洲原始設備製造商談論監管方面的二氧化碳懸崖，他們擔心其中一些正在試圖關閉工廠。

I mean, the thinking is that in Europe, your SAAR level, so to speak, could drop to like a $14 million level instead of it used to be $16 million before the pandemic.

我的意思是，我們的想法是，在歐洲，你的 SAAR 水平可以說可能會下降到 1400 萬美元的水平，而不是大流行之前的 1600 萬美元。

Now that said, there is a pickup expected in EV sales to meet the CO2 requirements.

話雖如此，為了滿足二氧化碳排放要求，電動車銷售量預計將回升。

So it's kind of like this double-edged sword thing, is it a net benefit if EVs recover for you guys, especially in Europe in the event there's a drop in production, presumably that's higher content per vehicle et cetera.

所以這有點像一把雙面刃，如果電動車復甦對你們來說是淨效益嗎，特別是在歐洲，如果產量下降，大概是每輛車的含量更高等等。

How do you think about that kind of disaster scenario production falling off next year if EV picks up next year?

如果明年電動車普及的話，您如何看待明年這種災難情境的產量下降？

Yes.

是的。

Tom, I think there's a couple of points there.

湯姆，我認為有幾點。

One, the scenario planning for drastic dropouts, like you said, a COVID type scenario is something that you don't build as a baseline.

第一，針對大幅輟學的情境規劃，就像你說的，新冠肺炎類型的情境不是你建構的基線。

You build that to figure how we can address it if that happens, right?

你建造它是為了弄清楚如果發生這種情況我們如何解決它，對吧？

So that's one.

這就是其中之一。

The second thing between EV and ICE, I would say we would be pretty balanced.

電動車和內燃機車之間的第二件事，我想說我們會非常平衡。

On some of the EV platforms in our BES as an example, our BES segment, the content per vehicle would be higher.

以我們的 BES 中的一些電動車平台為例，在我們的 BES 細分市場中，每輛車的內容會更高。

So if there is tailwinds on some of the programs that we've invested for like the battery enclosures, then you would see a tailwind.

因此，如果我們投資的某些項目（例如電池外殼）出現順風，那麼您就會看到順風。

If -- so that's on the debt side.

如果——那就是債務方面。

I think we have always been saying we are -- we have and continue to build for flexibility.

我認為我們一直在說我們已經並將繼續建立靈活性。

A lot of our product lines are agnostic one way or the other, but if -- if we are an EV platform supplying a mirror or a seat or a door or any other products, obviously, it has an impact.

我們的許多產品線都是不可知的，但如果——如果我們是一個提供鏡子、座椅、門或任何其他產品的電動車平台，顯然，它會產生影響。

But the idea is no matter which way it goes.

但這個想法無論走哪條路都是如此。

I think we feel pretty balanced, but if EVs take off, there is a higher content per vehicle in that case.

我認為我們感覺相當平衡，但如果電動車起飛，那麼每輛車的內容就會更高。

Got it.

知道了。

And if I could just sneak in one last one.

如果我能偷偷溜進最後一件就好了。

BES, I know you talked about complete vehicle with the margin uplift in Q4.

BES，我知道您談到了第四季度整車利潤率的提升。

But it looks like the implied margin for BES for Q4 is the highest and the midpoint, I think, in the whole year.

但我認為，第四季 BES 的隱含利潤率似乎是全年的最高和中點。

Is that coming from the -- what we were talking about earlier, the pricing with the recovery started from the OEMs?

這是來自——我們之前討論過的，隨著復甦而從原始設備製造商開始的定價嗎？

Or is there something else specific going on?

或是有其他具體的事情發生嗎？

I think you got it right, Tom.

我想你說得對，湯姆。

It's a settlement of the commercial recoveries.

這是商業追償的和解。

James Picariello, BNP Paribas.

詹姆斯·皮卡里洛，法國巴黎銀行。

Just on your industry volume assumption of down 2% for the full year, which largely aligns with IHS, but I assume it's informed by your customer build schedules at this point, right?

就您的行業銷售假設而言，全年下降 2%，這在很大程度上與 IHS 一致，但我認為您此時的客戶建立計劃已告知了這一情況，對嗎？

So could you just provide context on what your level of visibility is for the fourth quarter because I mean there are a few other suppliers that are calling for a 4% cut to the full year, implying almost a 10% decline for this upcoming quarter.

那麼，您能否提供有關第四季度能見度水平的背景信息，因為我的意思是，還有一些其他供應商要求全年削減 4%，這意味著下一個季度將下降近 10%。

So I guess to piggyback off John's first question, how would you handicap your industry volume assumption?

因此，我想藉用約翰的第一個問題，你將如何限制你的產業銷售假設？

And what is that level of backlog?

積壓的程度是多少？

Or unique seasonal timing for Magnus programs that informs this fourth quarter assumption?

或者馬格努斯計劃的獨特季節性時間為第四季度的假設提供了資訊？

So James, maybe Louis can add.

詹姆斯，也許路易斯可以補充。

I think we have visibility on program releases, obviously, but you have to consider the program releases over 12, 13 weeks and there are changes given the uncertainty and what's happening in the industry and how they're dealing with inventories and so on and so forth.

顯然，我認為我們對計劃發布有可見性，但你必須考慮 12、13 週內的計劃發布，並且考慮到不確定性、行業中正在發生的事情以及他們如何處理庫存等，因此會發生變化。四。

So you cannot put that in the system.

所以你不能將其放入系統中。

I mean we are dealing with on an everyday basis by flexing what we can in terms of direct labor and other aspects of the business.

我的意思是，我們每天都在透過在直接勞動力和業務的其他方面發揮我們所能來應對。

So we take that and continue to flex at an operational level.

因此，我們接受這一點，並繼續在營運層面上進行靈活調整。

Absolutely, that's part of our operational process.

當然，這是我們營運流程的一部分。

Difficult to -- we are seeing softness in the fourth quarter for sure.

很難——我們肯定會看到第四季的疲軟。

But I think we have been pretty prudent.

但我認為我們一直都非常謹慎。

But with that said, we still got eight more weeks to go, and there are some announcements that came out yesterday, which obviously we didn't account for in the data that you're seeing.

但話雖如此，我們還有八週的時間，昨天發布了一些公告，顯然我們沒有在您看到的數據中考慮到這些公告。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just on the buybacks, and apologies if this was already answered, but with respect to your leverage target, is there a presumption or expectation to trend slightly or moderately above that for a period of time through next year, just so we could get a sense for the bandwidth of that leverage versus your buyback commitment for the next 12 months?

然後就回購而言，如果這個問題已經得到解答，我們深表歉意，但就您的槓桿目標而言，是否存在假設或預期在明年一段時間內會略微或適度高於該目標，這樣我們就可以得到對該槓桿的頻寬與您未來 12 個月的回購承諾有何了解？

James, I think we have -- our principles are unchanged, and we have talked about getting to the targeted range towards the end of '25, and that hasn't changed.

詹姆斯，我認為我們的原則沒有改變，我們已經討論過在 25 年底達到目標範圍，這一點沒有改變。

I think Pat, in answering one of the questions did mention that there might be ups and downs as we go through the year in terms of the cash balances and our leverage ratio.

我認為帕特在回答其中一個問題時確實提到，在這一年中，我們的現金餘額和槓桿可能會起伏。

But our directional target of getting to the leverage ratio target by end of '25 remains.

但我們仍堅持在 25 年底達到槓桿率目標的方向性目標。

Bruno Dossena, Wolfe Research.

布魯諾多塞納，沃爾夫研究中心。

I was hoping to get some more context on the free cash flow outlook, both near and longer term.

我希望獲得更多有關近期和長期自由現金流前景的背景資訊。

So I guess, near term, you're still guiding to $700 million of free cash flow this year at the midpoint.

因此，我認為，短期內，您今年的自由現金流仍將達到 7 億美元的中點。

And if my math is right, you -- year-to-date, it's roughly breakeven.

如果我的數學是正確的，那麼今年到目前為止，它大致是收支平衡的。

So maybe first, you could help us understand the bridge to between $600 million and $800 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter alone.

因此，也許首先，您可以幫助我們了解僅第四季度自由現金流就達到 6 億美元到 8 億美元之間的橋樑。

And then longer term, and I think this is more of a follow-up to Tom's earlier question, but next year, we don't need an exact guide, but we know that next year, could be challenging for no other reason than you're lapping a year where your largest customers are restocking and we know that order books for European customers growing or have been softening.

然後從長遠來看，我認為這更像是湯姆之前問題的後續行動，但明年，我們不需要確切的指南，但我們知道明年可能會因為你而充滿挑戰今年是你們最大的客戶正在補充庫存的一年，我們知道歐洲客戶的訂單正在成長或已經疲軟。

And so I was hoping you could quantify the factors fully in your control, like CapEx, R&D spend and potentially for the restructuring that you could do to expand free cash flow irrespective of the production outlook?

因此，我希望您能夠量化完全在您控制範圍內的因素，例如資本支出、研發支出以及可能的重組，以擴大自由現金流，而不管生產前景如何？

So I think the biggest thing variable would be the volumes, right?

所以我認為最大的變數是數量，對吧？

And as said, we are kind of considering the volumes going into next year being flattish or maybe it on that, and we'll give a lot more color and specifics when we come back in February.

正如所說，我們正在考慮明年的銷量持平，或者可能是這樣，當我們二月回來時，我們將提供更多的顏色和細節。

But I think in the -- what you're seeing in terms of free cash flow is normal course for this year, and we feel pretty good about staying in the range of the $600 million to $800 million that we mentioned.

但我認為，你所看到的自由現金流是今年的正常情況，我們對保持在我們提到的 6 億至 8 億美元範圍內感到非常滿意。

And we also kind of indicated in the last calls for 2026, we are expecting to be in the range of $2 billion, right?

我們在最後一次關於 2026 年的呼籲中也表示，我們預計這一數字將在 20 億美元左右，對嗎？

So given the market economics as we sit today and the volume assumptions, which are pretty flattish, our set of assumptions being flattish compared to '24 going into '25 and '26, I wouldn't say they're still whole.

因此，考慮到我們今天所處的市場經濟狀況和交易量假設，這些假設相當平淡，與24 年、25 年和26 年相比，我們的一組假設是平淡的，我不會說它們仍然是完整的。

But if that assumption has changed drastically, like you said, obviously, we have to look for it.

但如果這個假設發生了巨大的變化，就像你說的那樣，顯然我們必須尋找它。

But a lot of the things that are in our control, whether it's capital, whether it's operational discipline and engineering that we feel pretty good about.

但很多事情都在我們的掌控之中，無論是資本、營運紀律或是我們感覺良好的工程。

And we continue to scrub and look at those numbers.

我們繼續清理並查看這些數字。

Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.

馬克·德萊尼，高盛。

Just one for me is following up on James' question.

對我來說，只有一件事是跟進詹姆斯的問題。

I'm just trying to understand Swamy, your comments around the fourth quarter implied revenue outlook.

我只是想了解斯瓦米，你對第四季的評論暗示了收入前景。

I think you said there were some developments that came out yesterday that maybe you didn't account for in the industry view, but you also described the revenue forecast as prudent.

我想你說過昨天出現的一些進展可能是你在行業觀點中沒有考慮到的，但你也將收入預測描述為謹慎的。

I just wanted to make sure I understood what your message is there?

我只是想確保我明白你的訊息是什麼？

And maybe the revenue view is more bottom-up and based on schedule?

也許收入觀點更加自下而上並且基於時間表？

And do you still feel confident in that?

您對此仍然有信心嗎？

And maybe something that can impact the industry forecast, but I did want to make sure you weren't trying to say there's some risk to the revenue view to James' question.

也許有些事情會影響產業預測，但我確實想確保你並不是想說詹姆斯的問題對收入觀點有一些風險。

Thanks for asking that question.

感謝您提出這個問題。

No way meant is, to give you an example, that announcements are coming on an everyday basis.

舉個例子，這並不是說每天都會發佈公告。

So it will be very difficult to put an exact number on everything.

因此，很難對所有事情給出準確的數字。

But just to clarify, given all the data that we have and the set of assumptions that we have taken, unless there is something very drastic still forthcoming, we feel pretty comfortable and expect to be in line with what we've put out for the fourth quarter.

但澄清一下，考慮到我們擁有的所有數據和我們採取的一系列假設，除非即將發生非常激烈的事情，否則我們感覺很舒服，並期望與我們為第四季度。

And even where we have releases, if our recent history is that the releases keep being -- the results actually become shorter releases, we're kind of handicapping that as well a little bit.

即使我們已經發布了版本，如果我們最近的歷史記錄是版本不斷 - 結果實際上變得更短的版本，我們也會稍微阻礙這一點。

So I think we've taken a pretty prudent view here.

所以我認為我們在這裡採取了非常謹慎的觀點。

Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.

柯林‧蘭根，富國銀行。

Just wanted to follow up on the quarter-over-quarter walk from Q3 to Q4, sales are -- it looks like about a 44% contribution margin on those higher sales sequentially, which is pretty high.

只是想跟進從第三季到第四季的季度環比走勢，銷售額——看起來連續較高的銷售額的貢獻率約為 44%，這是相當高的。

And on top of it, most of the -- pretty much all the growth is actually coming from CVA, which is a lower margin business.

最重要的是，幾乎所有成長實際上都來自 CVA，這是一項利潤率較低的業務。

So I think you mentioned in BES, there's maybe a settlement coming that's helping.

所以我認為你在 BES 中提到，可能會達成一個有幫助的和解協議。

What is driving that sort of outsized underlying contribution margin?

是什麼推動瞭如此巨大的基礎邊際貢獻？

And is that sort of a Q4 rate sustainable?

第四季的利率是否可持續？

I think when you think about -- we're moving from Q3 into Q4, you're bang on, on the sales change.

我認為，當您想到我們將從第三季進入第四季度時，您會立即關注銷售變化。

We talked about the engineering and just the pattern of settlements in the fourth quarter.

我們討論了工程以及第四季的定居模式。

So we -- so that's not going to have a traditional pull through.

所以我們——所以這不會有傳統的突破。

It's more binary in nature.

它本質上更加二元。

I would say when you look overall, we are continuing to expect to see improvements in our commercial settlements, which would be consistent with what we've seen over the last two years.

我想說的是，從整體上看，我們繼續期望看到我們的商業和解有所改善，這與我們過去兩年所看到的情況一致。

And then part of the offset is in the P&V group, we are seeing, again, everything at the midpoint, some sales softness relative to Q3.

然後部分抵銷是在 P&V 組中，我們再次看到一切都處於中點，相對於第三季而言，銷售有些疲軟。

So when you put those three together, that's really the bridge broadly.

所以當你把這三者放在一起時，這實際上就是一座廣泛的橋樑。

And what is driving the sales softness in P&V?

是什麼導致 P&V 銷售疲軟？

It comes back to everything Swami and Louis spoke about as far as the mix.

就混合而言，這又回到了斯瓦米和路易斯談到的一切。

We're going to talk macro and that's what we have in our whole volumes.

我們將討論宏觀問題，這就是我們整捲書中所講的。

You get a little bit more granular, as Swamy said, we look at our releases and then you have mix within those releases.

正如斯瓦米所說，你會變得更細化，我們會查看我們的版本，然後你會在這些版本中進行混合。

So it's across hundreds of platforms, it's a bottoms up.

所以它跨越數百個平台，是自下而上的。

And the reduction is less than 10%, but it just all lads up, Colin.

減少的幅度還不到 10%，但一切都很好，科林。

Got it.

知道了。

And just -- I have a pie back has discussed a lot, but any framing of how we should think about meaningful?

只是——我已經討論了很多，但是我們應該如何思考的任何框架有意義嗎？

Because if I go back to 2018, 2019, you're actually doing over $1 billion a year of buybacks, which is more than your free cash flow.

因為如果我回到 2018 年、2019 年，你實際上每年都會進行超過 10 億美元的回購，這比你的自由現金流還要多。

Is this more like $100 million, $200 million a quarter, $400 million, $500 million a quarter?

這更像是每季 1 億美元、2 億美元、每季 4 億美元、5 億美元嗎？

How should we be modeling it as we go forward?

當我們前進時，我們應該如何對其進行建模？

Yes.

是的。

Colin, I won't get into the specifics.

科林，我不會透露細節。

As we talked about -- for us, share repurchase is really a long-term strategy and not a onetime thing, and that's how we intend to use -- and when we say we want to buy up to a 10% float, that is really our target, right, maybe not exactly, but that's kind of how we're heading, but it's also depends on market conditions and what happens and volumes don't drop off, then the macro doesn't change significantly.

正如我們所說，對我們來說，股票回購實際上是一項長期策略，而不是一次性的事情，這就是我們打算使用的方式，當我們說我們想要購買最多10% 的流通股時，那就是這確實是我們的目標，對吧，也許不完全是，但這就是我們前進的方向，但這也取決於市場狀況以及發生的情況，並且成交量不會下降，那麼宏觀不會發生重大變化。

It's difficult to say this is what we are planning now, right?

很難說這就是我們現在的計劃，對吧？

But the idea of saying meaningful is it's just not -- we are not going to sit here and wait for the third or fourth quarter of next year.

但說有意義的想法是，我們不會坐在這裡等待明年第三或第四季。

We're going to start now, and it's going to be meaningful in the overall scheme of 10% float.

我們現在就開始，這對於10%浮動的整體方案來說是有意義的。

And 10% by when, the third line when you want to get the time?

還有10%什麼時候，第三行什麼時候你想得到的時間？

NCIB rules are up to 10% float, and it applies for 12 months starting from the release.

NCIB 規則浮動上限為 10%，自發布日起適用 12 個月。

So this November to next November.

所以今年11月到明年11月。

Michael Glen, Raymond James.

麥可格倫，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

I just wanted to ask one on commercial recoveries and the visibility on commercial recoveries.

我只是想問一個關於商業回收以及商業回收的可見性的問題。

Is there a scenario where if the industry turns in 2025, the OEMs come under margin pressure, is there a risk that we could see these commercial recoveries rolled back in a meaningful way?

是否存在這樣一種情況：如果產業在 2025 年發生轉變，原始設備製造商面臨利潤壓力，我們是否有可能看到這些商業復甦以有意義的方式回落？

The simple answer is no, because the -- I think in the previous calls, I've talked about a lot of these commercial recoveries are more procedural.

簡單的答案是否定的，因為——我認為在之前的電話中，我已經談到了很多商業追償都更加程序化。

So they go into purchase orders or different terms and conditions and so on and so forth.

因此，他們會簽訂採購訂單或不同的條款和條件等等。

So it's not something that we are negotiating every year.

所以這不是我們每年都在談判的事情。

There is some part of it, but that goes into productivity, that goes into various other parts of the various commercial discussions.

其中有一部分會影響生產力，會影響各種商業討論的其他部分。

But largely, I would say that's not the risk.

但在很大程度上，我想說這不是風險。

And then just on inventory levels, I know we read a lot about some concern on inventory levels, particularly across D3, are you seeing any different communication from your customers on inventory levels versus what is being written about in the media?

然後就庫存水準而言，我知道我們讀到了很多關於庫存水準的擔憂，特別是在 D3 中，您是否看到客戶關於庫存水準的溝通與媒體報導的內容有何不同？

No, not specifically by platform, right?

不，不是專門按平台劃分的，對吧？

We look very granular on our own based on, as all of us have said in various comments on releases and what we see in inventory just for our flexing of our operations.

我們自己看起來非常細緻，正如我們所有人在有關版本的各種評論中所說的那樣，以及我們在庫存中看到的內容只是為了我們靈活的操作。

But we haven't seen anything specific other than what you're seeing in the fourth quarter.

但除了你在第四季看到的情況之外，我們還沒有看到任何具體的情況。

John Murphy, Bank of America.

約翰‧墨菲，美國銀行。

I appreciate you sneaking me in for this quick follow-up.

感謝您偷偷地邀請我進行快速跟進。

Swami, when you talk about these recoveries in commercial sentiments in the second half of this year, really the genesis of those is a result of contracts not working out from a volume perspective, the way the OEM originally anticipated.

斯瓦米，當你談到今年下半年商業信心的復甦時，實際上這些復甦的根源是合約未能從數量角度發揮作用，而這正是原始設備製造商最初預期的方式。

So effectively, these are kind of hedges, and they wouldn't be occurring if business was going fairly well on those programs.

因此，這些實際上是一種對沖，如果這些計劃的業務進展順利，它們就不會發生。

So I mean, you would actually prefer the business to go well, earn the money the way you are planning as opposed to dealing with these settlements, right?

所以我的意思是，你實際上更希望業務進展順利，按照你計劃的方式賺錢，而不是處理這些和解，對嗎？

Is there kind of an offset here?

這裡有某種偏移嗎？

I just want to understand because I think there's kind of a view that these are onetime and kind of like you guys hit in the lottery.

我只是想了解一下，因為我認為有一種觀點認為這些都是一次性的，就像你們中了樂透一樣。

The reality there is a result of things not going right at the OEM level.

現實情況是 OEM 層面的事情進展不順利。

Is that a fair characterization?

這是一個公平的描述嗎？

My simple answer is your characterization is correct.

我的簡單答案是你的描述是正確的。

We would like the business to be running well.

我們希望業務運作良好。

They're not looking at lump sums.

他們不考慮一次性付款。

There is some parts of it, which is entrenched inflation, what happened in '22, how we amend the terms, some part of it may be addressing on a yearly basis.

其中有些部分是根深蒂固的通貨膨脹，22 年發生了什麼，我們如何修改條款，其中的某些部分可能需要每年解決。

But it's more how do we make it embedded into the normal course of business and the overall intent, like you said, John, is normal business runs well, and we recover the way we need to, and the way it was intended to.

但更重要的是我們如何將其嵌入到正常的業務過程中，總體意圖是，約翰，就像你說的那樣，正常的業務運作良好，我們按照我們需要的方式和預期的方式恢復。

And there are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

Swamy, I turn the call back over to you.

斯瓦米，我把電話轉給你。

Thanks, everyone, for listening in today.

謝謝大家今天的收聽。

As you might have heard and hopefully get that we remain very highly focused on margin expansion, the capital discipline, the free cash flow generation and obviously, on normalizing our capital allocation with increasing returns of capital to shareholders.

正如您可能聽說過並希望了解的那樣，我們仍然高度關注利潤擴張、資本紀律、自由現金流的產生，顯然，我們也專注於透過增加股東資本回報來規範我們的資本配置。

We remain very confident in Magna's future.

我們對麥格納的未來仍然充滿信心。

Thanks for listening in and have a great day.

感謝您的收聽，祝您有美好的一天。

And this concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。