Magna International Inc (MGA) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Joining me today are Swamy quota.

今天加入我的是斯瓦米配額。

Gary and Pat McCann decile results for the third quarter of 2024 and our updated outlook for 2024.

Gary 和 Pat McCann 2024 年第三季的十分位數表現以及我們更新的 2024 年展望。

We issued a press release this morning outlining our results.

我們今天早上發布了一份新聞稿，概述了我們的結果。

You'll find the press release.

您會找到新聞稿。

Today's conference call webcast with slides patients go along with the call and our updated quarterly financial review on the Investor Relations section of our website at nacco.com.

今天的電話會議網路直播配有幻燈片，患者會配合電話會議以及我們在 nacco.com 網站投資者關係部分更新的季度財務回顧。

For we get started this.

我們開始吧。

As a reminder, the discussion today may contain forward-looking information or forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities legislation.

提醒一下，今天的討論可能包含適用證券立法含義內的前瞻性資訊或前瞻性陳述。

Such statements involve certain risks, assumptions, uncertainties which may cause the Company's actual or future results and performance to be materially different from those expressed or implied in these statements.

此類陳述涉及某些風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致公司的實際或未來結果和績效與這些陳述中明示或暗示的結果和績效有重大差異。

Please refer to today's press release for a complete description of our Safe Harbor disclaimer.

請參閱今天的新聞稿，以了解我們的安全港免責聲明的完整說明。

Please also refer to as a reminder, slide included in our presentation that relates to our commentary today.

另請參閱我們簡報中與我們今天的評論相關的幻燈片，作為提醒。

With that, I'll pass the call over to Tommy.

這樣，我就把電話轉給湯米。

Thank you, Lewis.

謝謝你，劉易斯。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I appreciate you joining our call today.

感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

As always, let's jump right in.

像往常一樣，讓我們直接開始吧。

Let me highlight a few key takeaways.

讓我強調一些關鍵要點。

Before we get into the details of the quarter, we are mitigating industry headwinds, including lower production volumes in each of our core regions and continue to execute with an adjusted EBIT margin of 5.8% in line with Q3 2023, despite 4% lower global way to predict action, we expect our adjusted EBIT margin to be in the 5.4% and 5.5% range for 2024.

在我們詳細了解本季度的細節之前，我們正在緩解行業不利因素，包括每個核心地區的產量下降，並繼續以與2023 年第三季度一致的5.8% 的調整後息稅前利潤率執行，儘管全球年減4%為了預測行動，我們預期 2024 年調整後的息稅前利潤率將在 5.4% 到 5.5% 的範圍內。

Despite softer than anticipated vehicle production in North America and Europe, which has negatively impacted sales.

儘管北美和歐洲的汽車產量低於預期，這對銷售產生了負面影響。

We still expect our adjusted EBIT margin to be within our original 5.4% to 6% range from our February outlook, which highlights effective care cost saving strategies we have executed on.

我們仍預期調整後的息稅前利潤率將在 2 月展望的最初 5.4% 至 6% 範圍內，這凸顯了我們執行的有效的照護成本節約策略。

We continue to expect margin expansion in 2024 compared to 2023.

我們繼續預計 2024 年的利潤率將較 2023 年擴大。

Operational excellence activities remain on track to collectively contribute about 75 basis points to margin expansion during 24 and 25.

卓越營運活動仍有望在 24 至 25 年間為利潤率擴張共同貢獻約 75 個基點。

And we are benefiting from our ongoing restructuring activities and 90 million of reduced gross megatrend insulating spend for 2024.

我們正受益於我們正在進行的重組活動以及 2024 年大趨勢絕緣支出總額減少 9000 萬美元的情況。

While we are reducing our spend, we maintain confidence in our long-term positioning and its ability to reap the rewards of recent investments.

在我們減少支出的同時，我們對我們的長期定位及其獲得近期投資回報的能力保持信心。

We have a continued focus on strong free cash flow generation and capital discipline.

我們持續關注強大的自由現金流產生和資本紀律。

We have further lowered our expected CapEx range by another $100 million for the reduction of up to EUR300 million for 2024 compared to our February outlook.

與 2 月的展望相比，我們將 2024 年的預期資本支出範圍進一步下調了 1 億美元，減少了高達 3 億歐元。

And we are maintaining our free cash flow outlook range at 600 to 800.

我們將自由現金流前景維持在 600 至 800 之間。

And we are leveraging the elements within our control, further reinforcing our conviction in our growing free cash flow beyond this year.

我們正在利用我們控制範圍內的因素，進一步堅定我們對今年之後自由現金流不斷增長的信念。

As a result of this, we are planning to restart meaningful share repurchases this quarter.

因此，我們計劃在本季重啟有意義的股票回購。

We continue to focus on free cash flow generation and capital discipline to preserve our ability to return capital to shareholders while ensuring balance sheet health.

我們繼續關注自由現金流的產生和資本紀律，以保持我們向股東返還資本的能力，同時確保資產負債表的健康。

Turning to a high-level review of the numbers for the third quarter for 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2023, consolidated sales were 10.3 billion, down 4%, mainly reflecting lower production in our key markets and the divestiture of a controlling interest in our metal forming operations in India, partially offset by new program launches.

與 2023 年第三季相比，對 2024 年第三季的數據進行高層審查，合併銷售額為 103 億美元，下降 4%，主要反映了我們主要市場的產量下降以及剝離了控股權。印度的金屬成型業務，部分被新計畫的啟動所抵消。

Despite the challenging production environment, including Detroit three North American production being down 12% in the quarter, we posted 1% sales growth or market adjusted EBIT was 594 million, up 17 million from Q2 2024, despite sequentially lower vehicle production in all key regions, one two eight, inclusive of approximately $0.1 of net impact associated with the higher income tax rate, which Pat will cover later.

儘管生產環境充滿挑戰，包括底特律三北美產量在本季下降了12%，但我們的銷售成長了1%，即市場調整後的息稅前利潤為5.94 億美元，比2024 年第二季成長了1700 萬美元，儘管所有關鍵地區的汽車產量連續下降，一二八，包括與較高所得稅率相關的約 0.1 美元的淨影響，帕特將在稍後介紹。

And free cash flow generated in the quarter was 174 million, a strong $151 million increase from last year, reflecting continued capital discipline.

本季產生的自由現金流為 1.74 億美元，比去年強勁成長 1.51 億美元，反映出持續的資本紀律。

Our capital discipline and allocation principles remain unchanged.

我們的資本紀律和分配原則保持不變。

We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet, ample liquidity and high investment grade ratings to provide flexibility to invest for the future and manage through downturns as we continue to invest for profitable growth.

我們繼續保持強勁的資產負債表、充足的流動性和高投資等級評級，為未來投資提供靈活性，並在繼續投資實現盈利增長的同時應對經濟低迷。

We also regularly review and refine our product portfolio to ensure all business lines are aligned with our strategy to be a leading player in relevant markets and to generate value for shareholders.

我們也定期審查和完善我們的產品組合，以確保所有業務線都符合我們成為相關市場領導者並為股東創造價值的策略。

And as we have for many years, we intend to continue returning capital to shareholders.

正如我們多年來所做的那樣，我們打算繼續向股東返還資本。

Following a period of heightened investment, we are focused on returning to a more historical cadence and returning capital to shareholders.

經過一段時期的投資增加後，我們的重點是回歸歷史節奏並向股東返還資本。

Overall, our disciplined profitable approach to growth has served Magna and our shareholders well over the years and will remain a foundational principle going forward.

總體而言，多年來，我們嚴格的獲利成長方式為麥格納和我們的股東帶來了良好的服務，並將繼續成為未來的基本原則。

At the end of Q3, we had about 3.7 billion in liquidity, including about 1.1 billion in cash.

第三季末，我們的流動性約為37億，其中現金約11億。

We have been reducing our adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio for a peak of about 2.2 times in 2020.

我們一直在降低調整後債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率，2020 年高峰約為 2.2 倍。

We currently are ratio is at 1.93, and we are on a path to returning to our targeted range when we talk about returning to a normal cadence, look at the past dozen years provides some context to our capital allocation strategy.

我們目前的比率為1.93，當我們談論回歸正常節奏時，我們正在回歸目標範圍，回顧過去的十多年為我們的資本配置策略提供了一些背景。

Overall, we believe our long-term approach to investing for future value creation and capital return to shareholders is balanced.

總體而言，我們相信我們對未來價值創造和股東資本回報的長期投資方法是平衡的。

All that 2013, through 2023 timeframe, we invested about 20 billion into our business, almost 90% of which has been capital spending, including four new product areas, programs and geographies to bolster our established strong March market positions after a more recent period of investment in battery enclosure assembly capacity to support the ongoing transition to EVs, our CapEx as a percent of sales is on a path to more normal levels of mid-4 percent next year and around 4% by 2026.

2013 年到 2023 年期間，我們向業務投資了約 200 億美元，其中近 90% 是資本支出，包括四個新產品領域、計劃和地區，以鞏固我們在最近一段時間的 3 月份市場地位。對電池外殼組裝產能的投資以支持向電動車的持續過渡，我們的資本支出佔銷售額的百分比明年將達到4% 左右的更正常水平，到2026 年將達到4% 左右。

And over the same 2013, through 2023 period, we returned about 15 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

2013 年至 2023 年期間，我們以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還了約 150 億美元。

As you can see, following a period of elevated investment in 2023 2024, we expect our capital allocation profile to normalize starting in 2025 with our free cash flow generation this year and our confidence in further free cash flow growth beyond 2024, we are optimizing value creation by meaningfully increasing our return of capital to shareholders.

正如您所看到的，繼2023 年和2024 年一段時期的投資增加之後，我們預計我們的資本配置狀況將從2025 年開始正常化，今年我們將產生自由現金流，並且我們對2024 年之後自由現金流進一步增長的信心，我們正在優化價值透過有意義地增加我們對股東的資本回報來創造。

Beyond our consistent dividend policy, our Board approved a share repurchase plan for up to 10% of Magnus public float are over 28 million shares.

除了我們一貫的股利政策之外，我們的董事會還批准了一項股票回購計劃，回購 Magnus 公眾持股（超過 2,800 萬股）的 10%。

We expect to restart meaningful share repurchases this quarter.

我們預計本季將重啟有意義的股票回購。

The repurchases are in addition to our ongoing quarterly dividend.

這些回購是在我們正在進行的季度股息之外進行的。

We believe this capital allocation strategy provides the continued flexibility to both support future growth and further return capital to our shareholders.

我們相信，這種資本配置策略提供了持續的靈活性，既可以支持未來的成長，又可以進一步向股東返還資本。

In summary, we are responding to the volatile operating environment and are focused on margin expansion, free cash flow generation and increasing return of capital.

總之，我們正在應對不穩定的經營環境，並專注於利潤率擴張、自由現金流的產生和資本回報率的提高。

With that, I'll pass the call over to Pat.

這樣，我會將電話轉給帕特。

Thanks, Rami, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝拉米，大家早安。

As for me indicated, we continue to mitigate the impact of ongoing industry challenges.

正如我所說，我們將繼續減輕當前行業挑戰的影響。

Comparing the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2023, consolidated sales were 10.3 billion, 4% lower than Q3 2023, and in line with a 4% decrease in global light vehicle production.

2024年第三季與2023年第三季相比，綜合銷售量為103億輛，較2023年第三季下降4%，與全球輕型汽車產量下降4%的情況一致。

On an organic basis, we post at a 1% weighted growth over market for the quarter.

在有機基礎上，我們預期本季加權成長率較市場成長 1%。

Adjusted EBIT was $594 million and adjusted EBIT margin was unchanged at 5.8%.

調整後息稅前利潤為 5.94 億美元，調整後息稅前利潤率維持 5.8% 不變。

Adjusted EPS came in at $1.28, down 12% year over year, mainly reflecting slightly lower EBITDA and higher income taxes, which cost us about $0.1.

調整後每股收益為 1.28 美元，年減 12%，主要反映了 EBITDA 略有下降和所得稅增加，導致我們損失了約 0.1 美元。

The higher tax rate was largely related to non-cash foreign exchange losses, including on certain deferred tax assets that are not deductible for income tax purposes.

稅率較高主要與非現金外匯損失有關，包括某些不可扣除所得稅的遞延稅資產。

And free cash flow generated in the quarter was $174 million, a substantial increase compared to $23 million in the third quarter of 2023.

該季度產生的自由現金流為 1.74 億美元，較 2023 年第三季的 2,300 萬美元大幅成長。

During the quarter, we paid dividends of $138 million.

本季度，我們支付了 1.38 億美元的股息。

And with respect to our outlook, we are once again lowering our capital spending range and maintaining our expectations for 2020 for free cash flow.

就我們的前景而言，我們再次降低資本支出範圍，並維持對 2020 年自由現金流的預期。

Finally, we recognized $196 million of other income from Fisker related deferred revenue as a result of the cancellation of the manufacturing agreements this past quarter.

最後，由於上個季度取消了製造協議，我們從 Fisker 相關的遞延收入中確認了 1.96 億美元的其他收入。

Let me take you through some of the details.

讓我帶您了解一些細節。

North America and China.

北美和中國。

Light vehicle production were each down 6% and production in Europe declined 2%, netting to a 4% decline in global production.

輕型汽車產量分別下降 6%，歐洲產量下降 2%，全球產量下降 4%。

Breaking down North American production further, while overall production in the third quarter decreased 6%.

北美產量進一步細分，第三季整體產量下降了6%。

Production by our Detroit-based customers declined 12%.

底特律客戶的產量下降了 12%。

Our consolidated sales were $10.3 billion compared to EUR10.7 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

我們的綜合銷售額為 103 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 107 億歐元。

On an organic basis, our sales decreased 4% year over year for a 1% growth over market in the third quarter, despite negative production mix from lower deal three production in North America, the lower global vehicle production and of production of certain programs, the divestiture of a controlling interest in our metal forming operations in India and normal course customer price give backs were partially offset by the launch of new programs and increases to recover certain higher input cost costs.

在有機基礎上，我們的銷售額年減 4%，但第三季比市場成長 1%，儘管北美第三筆交易產量下降、全球汽車產量和某些項目產量下降導致生產組合出現負成長，剝離我們在印度的金屬成型業務的控制權和正常的客戶價格回饋被新計劃的啟動和為收回某些較高的投入成本而增加的費用部分抵消。

Adjusted EBIT was $594 million and adjusted EBIT margin was 5.8% in line with Q3 2023.

調整後息稅前利潤為 5.94 億美元，調整後息稅前利潤率為 5.8%，與 2023 年第三季持平。

The EBIT percentage in the quarter reflects 75 basis points of net discrete items due to higher net favorable commercial points net unfavorable items in the third quarter of 2023, partially offset by higher net warranty costs and supply chain premiums, partially as a result of a supplier bankruptcy and 50 basis points of net operational improvements, including operational excellence activities, partially offset by higher net input new facility and launch costs.

本季的息稅前利潤百分比反映了淨離散項目的75 個基點，原因是2023 年第三季淨有利商業點淨不利項目增加，部分被更高的淨保固成本和供應鏈溢價所抵消，部分原因是供應商破產和淨營運改善 50 個基點，包括卓越營運活動，部分被更高的淨投入新設施和啟動成本所抵消。

These were offset by volume and other items, which collectively impact us by about negative 90 basis points.

這些被交易量和其他項目所抵消，這些項目總共對我們產生了約 90 個基點的負面影響。

These include reduced earnings on lower sales and lower vehicle assembly volumes, partially offset by the impact of the UAW strike in the third quarter of 2023 and negative 40 basis points related to lower equity income, largely as a result of net favorable commercial items and lower unconsolidated sales in our LG. magnet joint venture, partially offset by lower launch costs.

其中包括銷售下降和車輛組裝量下降導致的收益減少，部分被2023 年第三季UAW 罷工的影響所抵消，以及與股本收入下降相關的負40 個基點（主要是由於淨有利的商業項目和較低的利潤）我們 LG 的未合併銷售。磁鐵合資企業，部分被較低的發射成本所抵消。

Interest expense increased 5 million, mainly due to higher interest rates on the debt refinancing during 2023 and 2024.

利息支出增加500萬元，主要是2023年、2024年債務再融資利率上升所致。

Our adjusted effective income tax rate came in at 27.2%, significantly higher than Q3 of last year due to unfavorable foreign exchange adjustments recognized for US GAAP purposes and a change in the mix of earnings.

由於美國公認會計原則的不利外匯調整以及獲利組合的變化，我們調整後的有效所得稅率為 27.2%，顯著高於去年第三季。

Net income was $369 million compared to $419 million in Q3 of 2023, mainly reflecting lower adjusted EBIT and higher income tax expense and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.28, including approximately $0.1 associated with the higher income tax rate compared to $1.46 last year.

淨利潤為3.69 億美元，而2023 年第三季為4.19 億美元，主要反映了調整後息稅前利潤的降低和所得稅費用的增加，調整後稀釋後每股收益為1.28 美元，其中與去年同期的1.46 美元的所得稅率較高相關的約0.1 美元。

Turning to review of our cash flows and investment activities.

轉向對我們的現金流和投資活動的審查。

In the third quarter of 2024, we generated 785 million in cash from operations before changes in working capital and invested 58 million in working capital.

2024年第三季度，我們在營運資金變動前的營運中產生了7.85億美元的現金，並投資了5,800萬美元的營運資金。

Investment activities in the quarter included $476 million for fixed assets and $115 million increase in investment.

本季的投資活動包括 4.76 億美元的固定資產和 1.15 億美元的投資增加。

Other assets and intangibles.

其他資產和無形資產。

Overall, we generated free cash flow of 174 million in Q3 compared to 23 million in the third quarter of 2023.

總體而言，我們第三季的自由現金流為 1.74 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 2,300 萬美元。

And we are maintaining our free cash flow expectations of 600 to $800 million for 2024.

我們維持 2024 年 6 億至 8 億美元自由現金流預期。

Despite the challenging industry environment, and we continue to return capital to shareholders paying 138 million in dividends in the third quarter.

儘管產業環境充滿挑戰，我們仍繼續向股東返還資本，在第三季支付了 1.38 億美元的股息。

In addition, as Swamy noted, we intend to begin repurchasing our shares this quarter, which demonstrates our confidence in our free cash flow profile and our focus on shareholder value.

此外，正如斯瓦米指出的那樣，我們打算在本季開始回購股票，這表明我們對自由現金流狀況和對股東價值的關注充滿信心。

Next, I will cover our updated 2024 outlook, which incorporates reduced vehicle production in all key regions.

接下來，我將介紹我們更新的 2024 年展望，其中包括所有關鍵地區的汽車產量減少。

We also assume exchange rates in our outlook will approximate recent rates.

我們也假設我們展望中的匯率將接近近期匯率。

We now expect a slightly higher Canadian dollar euro and Chinese RMB for 2024.

我們現在預計 2024 年加幣、歐元和人民幣將小幅走高。

Relative to our previous outlook, we are narrowing and lowering our expected sales range, reflecting lower volumes in North America and Europe, partially offset by positive foreign exchange, mainly from higher euro.

相對於我們先前的展望，我們正在縮小和降低預期銷售範圍，反映出北美和歐洲銷售下降，部分被積極的外匯匯率（主要是歐元走高）所抵消。

We have narrowed our adjusted EBIT margin range to 5.4% to 5.5% as we are now three quarters of the way through 2024.

由於 2024 年已過四分之三，我們已將調整後息稅前利潤率範圍縮小至 5.4% 至 5.5%。

Consistent with our original outlook commentary and separate customer recoveries and lower net engineering spend, it contributed to higher margins in Q3 compared to what we saw in the first half of the year.

與我們最初的展望評論以及單獨的客戶恢復和較低的淨工程支出一致，與我們上半年相比，它導致第三季的利潤率更高。

And they are expected to help drive margins to the highest level of the year and Q4.

預計它們將有助於將利潤率推至今年和第四季的最高水準。

Our reduced equity income range largely reflects lower expected unconsolidated sales of EV components.

我們減少的股權收入範圍很大程度上反映了電動車零件預期未合併銷售額的下降。

We raised our effective income tax rate to approximately 23%, mainly due to the weaker Mexican peso relative to the USD leading to unfavorable foreign exchange adjustments incurred for US GAAP purposes, we have narrowed and lowered our adjusted net income to largely reflect lower EBIT and the higher income tax rate.

我們將有效所得稅率提高至約23%，主要是由於墨西哥比索相對於美元走弱，導緻美國公認會計原則(GAAP) 目的產生不利的外匯調整，我們縮小並降低了調整後的淨利潤，以在很大程度反映較低的息稅前利潤和所得稅稅率較高。

We now expect capital spending to be in the 2.2 to 2.3 billion range.

我們現在預計資本支出將在 220 至 23 億美元之間。

This is down another $100 million from our previous outlook now totaling up to $300 million for the full year compared to our February outlook.

這比我們先前的預期又減少了 1 億美元，現在與我們 2 月的預期相比，全年總計高達 3 億美元。

This mainly reflects our continued focus on capital discipline and offsetting the impacts from a weaker vehicle production environment.

這主要反映了我們持續關注資本紀律並抵消汽車生產環境疲軟的影響。

And our interest expense and free cash flow expectations are unchanged from our previous outlook.

我們的利息支出和自由現金流預期與先前的展望相同。

To summarize the quarter, we have solid operating performance, and we continue to execute despite a more challenging environment with adjusted EBIT margin in line with Q3 of 2023.

總結本季度，我們擁有穩健的經營業績，儘管環境更具挑戰性，但我們仍繼續執行，調整後的息稅前利潤率與 2023 年第三季度一致。

Despite lower vehicle production in all key regions.

儘管所有主要地區的汽車產量均有所下降。

We continue to be focused on margin expansion, capital discipline and free cash flow generation.

我們持續關注利潤擴張、資本紀律和自由現金流的產生。

With respect to our updated 2024 outlook, we are reducing the top end of our sales range, reflecting lower expected production projecting to be in the 5.4 to 5.5 range for adjusted EBIT margin, lowering our capital spending once again and maintaining our free cash flow expectations for the year.

關於我們更新的2024 年展望，我們正在降低銷售範圍的上限，反映出調整後息稅前利潤率預計在5.4 至5.5 範圍內的預期產量較低，再次降低我們的資本支出並維持我們的自由現金流預期今年。

We plan to restart meaningful share buybacks in Q4, as always, seeking to optimize value creation, and we continue to work to mitigate the impact of market challenges we are facing.

我們計劃一如既往地在第四季度重啟有意義的股票回購，尋求優化價值創造，並繼續努力減輕我們面臨的市場挑戰的影響。

Thank you for attending this morning.

感謝您今天早上的出席。

We would be happy to answer your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

At this time, I'd like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad.

此時，我想提醒大家，要問，請按星號，然後按電話鍵盤上的數字一。

Our first question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰‧墨菲。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

Just maybe a first question on the fourth quarter implied, it seems like sales on a year-over-year basis at the midpoint would be about flat and the margin or the adjusted EBIT margin six four, two, six seven survey in light of everything is going on right now.

也許第四季的第一個問題暗示，中點的年比銷售額似乎將持平，而利潤率或調整後的息稅前利潤率六四、二、六七調查考慮到一切現在正在發生。

Those are pretty strong in implied results.

這些隱含結果非常強大。

I'm just curious if there's any anything rolling on as far as new business in this quarter and sort of what CM sort of the confidence in what looks like a very good Q4, they're more recoveries coming in.

我只是好奇本季的新業務是否有任何進展，以及CM對看起來非常好的第四季的信心，他們有更多的復甦。

I mean what's driving this?

我的意思是是什麼推動了這一點？

Good morning, John.

早安，約翰。

I think there is nothing significant in terms of rolling on our all other than the normal cadence of launches that happened in Q three, Q3 and maybe slightly into Q4.

我認為，除了第三季、第三季甚至第四季的正常發布節奏之外，沒有什麼重大的意義。

All our assumptions are based on us, not just the numbers, but you guys that are leases that we are seeing other than that.

我們所有的假設都是基於我們自己，不僅僅是數字，還有我們所看到的租賃情況。

I think there is nothing that is a significant portion of recoveries that we've always said our towards the back half of the year.

我認為沒有什麼是我們一直所說的下半年復甦的重要部分。

But I wouldn't say there there are any significantly different in Q4 than they've been in the third quarter.

但我不會說第四季與第三季有任何顯著不同。

Okay.

好的。

And then just maybe a follow-up to that.

然後也許只是後續行動。

Given the strength of what looks like 6.2% margins in the second half of the year, Tom, and the great work you guys have done what we should think about sort of and I'm going to get into 2020.

鑑於今年下半年 6.2% 的利潤率，湯姆，以及你們所做的出色工作，我們應該考慮一下，我將進入 2020 年。

I'm sure you're not going to give exact outlook there.

我確信您不會給出確切的展望。

But as Pat has, we think about sort of walk off point for 2020 for Palm, given that you're putting up what looks to be very good results in a very tough environment in the second half with the benefits of some this restructuring.

但正如帕特所做的那樣，我們考慮了 Palm 在 2020 年的退出點，因為您在下半年非常艱難的環境中取得了看起來非常好的成績，並從一些重組中受益。

What do you think that the correct walk off point is for for margins as we think forward forget about even saying 2025 exactly.

您認為正確的利潤率離開點是什麼，因為我們認為甚至忘記確切地說 2025 年。

But the basis that we should be thinking of, John, you said it is difficult for 2025.

但我們應該考慮的基礎是，約翰，你說 2025 年會很困難。

But I think one of the key things that we've talked about is this 75 basis points of margin improvement between 24 and 25.

但我認為我們討論的關鍵事情之一是 24 至 25 之間的利潤率提高了 75 個基點。

And I would say we are on track and with very little left in 24 Refuel, correct that we have achieved that.

我想說的是，我們已經步入正軌，24 Refuel 所剩無幾，正確的是，我們已經實現了這一目標。

So we have that operational runway with whatever we end mid Q4, which we are talking about full year being five, four, two, five five, and that we have the operational improvement of 35 to 40 basis points going into 25.

因此，無論我們在第四季中期結束什麼，我們都有一條營運跑道，我們所說的全年是五個、四個、兩個、五個五個，並且我們的營運改善了35 到40 個基點，進入25 個基點。

And I would say a few other things we continue to look at.

我想說一些我們繼續關注的其他事情。

So I would say that's the best way to look at how we're going to end this year going into 25.

所以我想說，這是了解我們今年將如何結束進入 25 週年的最佳方式。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And just lastly on the CapEx is most of the pullback here on the battery enclosure and in other on EV spending.

最後，在資本支出方面，電池外殼和其他電動車支出的大部分縮減。

And I mean, as you think about some of that commitment to that business, I would imagine is still pretty strong.

我的意思是，當你想到對該業務的一些承諾時，我認為仍然相當強大。

But I mean, is there a lower capacity level that you think you might need going forward?

但我的意思是，您認為未來可能需要更低的容量水平嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think, John, you kind of hit the nail on the head.

我想，約翰，你說得一針見血。

There's a couple of points to make just a couple of contextual and a couple of current in 23 and 24.

在第 23 章和第 24 章中，有幾點需要說明一些上下文和當前情況。

I would say the significant investments above the normal water level has been in the B, the ES segment specific date for battery enclosures, you're right on that.

我想說的是，高於正常水位的重大投資是在 B 部分，即 ES 部分電池外殼的具體日期，你說得對。

I would say most of the significant heavy lifting on that topic is behind us unless there is new program spread.

我想說，除非有新的計劃展開，否則主題的大部分重大繁重工作已經過去。

Those programs will be more program capital rather than brick and mortar and other things.

這些項目將更多是專案資本，而不是實體和其他東西。

And John, you might know, but just for others and everyone this is normal course.

約翰，你可能知道，但對其他人和每個人來說，這是一個正常的過程。

If you go back, I know I'm going a little bit into the history, but into the mid and late 90s, Van Magna was getting into the frame business.

如果你回顧過去，我知道我要深入了解歷史，但到了 90 年代中後期，範·麥格納 (Van Magna) 開始涉足車架業務。

Our CapEx to sales ratio intensity was in the level of nine and 10 or three or four years, and that business will continue to flourish after 30 years.

我們的資本支出與銷售額的比率強度處於九年和十年或三四年的水平，並且該業務將在 30 年後繼續蓬勃發展。

So battery enclosures business is in a similar vein in the same design space or the vehicle, similar capital intensity.

因此，電池外殼業務在相同的設計空間或車輛中具有相似的脈絡，具有相似的資本強度。

We feel we have built that foundation now and they have always said that you be a secular trend.

我們覺得我們現在已經建立了這個基礎，他們總是說你是長期趨勢。

Trajectory is a bit unpredictable.

軌跡有點難以預測。

But when it comes, that will serve as a tailwind for us given the foundation is diamonds behind us.

但當它到來時，這將成為我們的順風，因為我們背後的基礎是鑽石。

Maybe just one last follow-up on that.

也許只是最後的後續行動。

In the payoff petrol, that investment is not necessarily just this next product cycle, a might be many product cycles going forward.

在回報汽油中，投資不一定只是下一個產品週期，可能是未來的許多產品週期。

Is that does that affect your statements roaming?

這會影響你的帳單漫遊嗎？

That's fair, John.

這很公平，約翰。

I think I have three buckets.

我想我有三個桶子。

I always like to consider on big investments like this.

我總是喜歡考慮這樣的大投資。

one is more like brick and mortar or Rich, you are right.

一種更像是實體或豐富，你是對的。

It can be in a multiple design cycles.

它可以處於多個設計週期。

In the past, we were billing frame plants in Ontario, in Mexico and Southern part of U.S.

過去，我們對安大略省、墨西哥和美國南部的框架工廠進行計費。

So that bucket you are right.

所以那個桶子你是對的。

The second part is using capacity like stamping, presses, castings and so on and so forth.

第二部分是沖壓、沖床、鑄件等產能的利用。

As stated volatility and production using that capacity, so bring back.

正如所說的波動性和使用該產能的生產，所以帶回來。

So they outsourced strokes that they have to leverage that and use that capacity right now.

因此，他們將中風外包，他們必須立即利用並使用這種能力。

And when you these are the critical programs come back, we can flex back and forth again.

當這些關鍵程式回來時，我們可以再次來回調整。

So that's the second bucket.

這是第二個桶子。

Third bucket is rapidly capital specific to programs like assembly capital that is reading program dependent.

第三個桶子是特定於程式的快速資本，例如依賴讀取程式的彙編資本。

So that's kind of how I look at the business overall.

這就是我對整個業務的看法。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much, guys.

非常感謝你們，夥伴們。

Thanks, Jonathan.

謝謝，喬納森。

Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Chan with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場部的 Timothy Chan。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

And Pat, I wanted to ask about the and starting a real our buyback, how all of this quarter, Q4 and it's fairly substantial amount to the next 12 months earlier, I believe, than your previous commentary.

帕特，我想問一下關於開始真正的回購的問題，我相信，本季度、第四季度以及未來 12 個月的回購時間比您之前的評論要早。

So I just wanted to better understand what specifically in the time line forward.

所以我只是想更了解時間軸的具體內容。

I think my prior understanding was the big hurdle.

我認為我之前的理解是一個很大的障礙。

Was your leverage at any that can be below 1.5 times.

您的槓桿率是否低於 1.5 倍？

I see, so at 1.93 times.

我明白了，所以是 1.93 倍。

So can you just talk a bit about why wouldn't move the buyback time line up quite a bit?

那麼您能談談為什麼不將回購時間提前很多嗎？

Yes, I think morning, Tammy.

是的，我想早安，塔米。

As far as the NCAB. And we we are still looking at Swamy said to get back into our long term ratio of 1.5.

至於NCAB。我們仍在關注 Swamy 的說法，以恢復我們的長期比率 1.5。

I think that's core and foundational to Magnus.

我認為這是馬格努斯的核心和基礎。

When we looked at our business plans and we're as we progress through the year, we're getting closer and closer to what we were talking about last year was that we were going to initiate buybacks during 2025.

當我們審視我們的業務計劃時，隨著這一年的進展，我們越來越接近我們去年所說的，即我們將在 2025 年期間啟動回購。

What we've effectively done is he's pulled ahead maybe one or two quarters.

我們所做的有效工作是他領先了大約一兩個季度。

It's not a substantive changes.

這不是實質的改變。

It's consistent with where we are.

這與我們所處的位置是一致的。

And I think it really just reflects our view of of our execution over the past nine months or 1.9 is where we expected to be actually slightly ahead.

我認為這實際上只是反映了我們對過去 9 個月執行情況的看法，或者 1.9 是我們預計實際上會稍微領先的地方。

So we're tracking and we know we're pulling ahead.

所以我們正在跟踪，我們知道我們正在領先。

I don't think it's a change in our strategy is really just for accelerating from where we expected to be sort of timing.

我不認為我們策略的改變只是為了從我們預期的時間點加速。

I would say that our capital allocation principles are unchanged.

我想說的是，我們的資本配置原則沒有改變。

Like Pat said.

正如帕特所說。

So it shows that we have the confidence of picking the right steps to drive margins and cash flow, including the operational initiatives that I've talked about, loading capital, reducing spending spend.

因此，這表明我們有信心選擇正確的步驟來提高利潤和現金流，包括我談到的營運舉措、加載資本、減少支出。

And as Pat said, looking at what we have in terms of visibility, do you believe we can increase the free cash flow even in a relatively modest production environment assumptions?

正如帕特所說，看看我們在可見性方面所擁有的，您是否相信即使在相對溫和的生產環境假設下我們也可以增加自由現金流？

Got it.

知道了。

And just to clarify on that and you don't it doesn't sound like you foresee any impact or issue to your investment grade label to pulling back and start cycling full against the buyback now?

只是為了澄清這一點，您不覺得您預見到您的投資等級標籤會受到任何影響或問題，因此現在就撤回並開始全面反對回購嗎？

So I mean, we have not obviously doing this in isolation.

所以我的意思是，我們顯然不是孤立地這樣做的。

We have had discussions and meetings with the major credit rating agencies.

我們與主要信用評級機構進行了討論和會議。

Obviously, I cannot talk about the decision, but they walk them through.

顯然，我不能談論這個決定，但他們會引導他們完成這些決定。

And this is in a this was done in a very meaningful, measured and discussed with the appropriate parties.

這是在非常有意義的情況下完成的，經過慎重考慮並與適當的各方進行了討論。

Okay.

好的。

And my other question on the Power & Vision segment.

還有我關於電力與願景部分的另一個問題。

So good to see the margin performance this quarter.

很高興看到本季的利潤率表現。

It's been a volatile segment.

這是一個不穩定的部分。

If I think the other quarters of here, and I'm just trying to put together all the pieces between some of your prior comments about a bit of in sourcing in China and OE., and we are setting the entire vehicle architecture.

如果我想到這裡的其他方面，我只是想將您之前關於在中國和原廠採購的一些評論之間的所有部分放在一起，我們正在設置整個車輛架構。

So can you just remind us at this point here, how you're thinking about the trajectory of the business, whether it's sales growth and margin?

那麼，您現在能否提醒我們，您是如何考慮業務發展軌蹟的，無論是銷售成長還是利潤率？

Anything that would be helpful.

任何有幫助的事。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

I mean net income of the above the annual guidance, right.

我的意思是高於年度指導的淨利潤，對吧。

I think it's a small change, but not substantially from where we started the beginning of the year.

我認為這是一個很小的變化，但與我們年初開始的情況相比並沒有太大變化。

And I remember the question asked in the first quarter when we were in the low twos.

我記得第一季我們處於低潮時提出的問題。

And I said that though, to monitor the volatility of whether it's production of program launches and surgery, the totality of the programs, the customer recoveries, the engineering recoveries on the programs launched, that's what is driving the volatility is not about the business.

我說過，儘管如此，要監控專案啟動和手術的生產、專案的整體情況、客戶恢復情況、啟動專案的工程恢復情況的波動性，這才是導致波動的原因，與業務無關。

So I think I would look at what we're indicating as the margin range annually rather than look at, you know, quarter by quarter in that pattern of the month.

因此，我認為我會每年查看我們所指示的利潤範圍，而不是按照每月的模式逐季度查看。

You want to add something?

你想添加一些東西嗎？

I think, Gail, Tammy, when you think about the volatility quarter to quarter, PNDs burdened with three big areas, I would say one is equity income really lose margin based on where it is.

我認為，蓋爾、塔米，當您考慮季度與季度之間的波動性時，PND 承擔著三大領域的重擔，我想說的是，其中一個是股權收入確實會根據其所在位置而損失利潤。

There's no sales.

沒有銷售。

Thus That's number one.

因此這是第一。

So we are seeing will it move around?

所以我們看到它會移動嗎？

And we've talked about that even in her comments.

我們甚至在她的評論中也討論過這一點。

Number two is we have engineering spend that flexes quarter to quarter and then the recoveries that relate to it, that drives product margin into the back half of the year.

第二，我們的工程支出逐季度有所變化，然後是與之相關的復甦，這推動了產品利潤率進入下半年。

And then the third factor is consistent with all the other groups is a lot of our commercial and inflationary recoveries, as we said from February onwards, are going to be in the back half of the year, and that's what we're expecting.

第三個因素與所有其他因素一致，正如我們從二月開始所說的那樣，我們的商業和通膨復甦將在今年下半年出現，這就是我們的預期。

So I think stacked as well as comment on a full-year basis.

所以我認為在全年的基礎上進行堆積和評論。

I think that that views unchanged.

我認為這一觀點沒有改變。

We expect to take only growth in margins, but within the quarters continue, I would still expect to see this unusual Kadian.

我們預計只會實現利潤率的成長，但在接下來的幾個季度內，我仍然希望看到這個不尋常的 Kadian。

So a weak Q1 has margins growth throughout the year that and that's what we're seeing.

因此，疲軟的第一季導致全年利潤率成長，這就是我們所看到的。

And to answer your question on the other part time is on eight of the only one vehicle program.

另一部分時間回答你的問題是關於唯一的一個車輛計劃中的八個。

It works, call it a trend or we have not seen any other program and closed one customer one change fees to and continue to have traction on.

它有效，稱之為一種趨勢，或者我們沒有看到任何其他計劃，並且關閉了一個客戶並收取了一個變更費用，並繼續具有吸引力。

A lot of large programs are in a desk.

桌子上有很多大型程式。

So stay tuned and we'll keep you posted.

所以請繼續關注，我們會及時通知您。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stanley.

史丹利.

And your next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hi, good morning, guys.

嗨，早上好，夥計們。

Really attacking on for Adam Jonas.

真正攻擊亞當喬納斯。

Actually taking my question.

實際上回答我的問題。

I'm just curious if you guys are seeing anything new, whether it's program push-outs or just volatility in this quarter, what you expect your 2025, not really anything that you're seeing for 2025, that kind of help catalyze the buyback.

我只是好奇你們是否看到了任何新的東西，無論是計劃的推出還是本季度的波動，你們對 2025 年的期望，而不是你們真正看到的 2025 年的任何東西，這有助於催化回購。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

If your question has meant from a sourcing program decisions by the customers?

您的問題是否意味著客戶的採購計畫決策？

Yes, we have seen a bunch of call it delayed or deferments, you know, maybe continuing to follow that.

是的，我們看到很多人稱之為延遲或延期，你知道，也許會繼續遵循這種說法。

But as I said, that is not what's driving them margin expansion into the next year.

但正如我所說，這並不是推動他們明年利潤率擴張的原因。

These are specific tasks that are at hand on the road map that we have.

這些都是我們現有路線圖上即將完成的具體任務。

Like I said in I think in the comments in the one of the previous questions, the 70 basis points top of it is already in place.

正如我在前一個問題的評論中所說，70 個基點的頂部已經到位。

The other half are based on what we have in place.

另一半則是基於我們現有的情況。

And is there any other changes in terms of better volumes?

在更好的銷售方面還有其他變化嗎？

Or will you be trajectory changing to a better, although all of those would be tailwinds.

或者你的軌跡會改變到更好，儘管所有這些都將是順風。

Got it.

知道了。

That's that's that's helpful, guys.

就是這樣，夥計們，這很有幫助。

And then maybe area, are you seeing anything new in terms of pricing and mix on the EV side this quarter, in particular, if you're seeing OEMs pressure, lower pricing as we move into 2025 that you know, and you know, what we're working through right now was a decision towards three years ago in the sourcing in terms and conditions and fuels.

然後也許是，本季度電動車方面的定價和組合方面您是否看到了任何新變化，特別是，如果您看到原始設備製造商的壓力，隨著我們進入2025 年，您會降低定價，您知道，您知道，什麼我們現在正在努力解決的是三年前在採購條款、條件和燃料方面的決定。

So no, we're not seeing any anything right now.

所以不，我們現在沒有看到任何東西。

Got it.

知道了。

Helpful.

有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Dan Levy。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking questions.

你好，早上好，感謝您提出問題。

Tom pointed to start first with just a question on the implied guidance for Complete Vehicle segment.

湯姆指出，首先提出一個關於整車細分市場隱含指引的問題。

There is a substantial step up in the fourth quarter, both in revenue and margins.

第四季的營收和利潤率都有大幅成長。

You can just give us a reminder what's going on there and the underlying dynamics as you move past the Fisker program.

當您通過菲斯克計劃時，您可以提醒我們正在發生的事情以及潛在的動態。

Morning, Dan?

早安，丹？

Yes, I think the Malibu shows that I agree and the really the biggest changes coming out of the engineering segment.

是的，我認為 Malibu 表明了我的同意，而最大的變化確實來自工程領域。

So for everybody's benefit or complete vehicles has a become a significant engineering business in it.

因此，為了每個人的利益，整車已成為其中一項重要的工程業務。

And most of that engineering gets a lot of the settlement and the customer negotiations happen in the fourth quarter, and that's our expectation.

大部分的工程都得到了很多和解，客戶談判在第四季進行，這是我們預期。

So as you mentioned, Fiskars behind us, we're in the middle of finalizing negotiations with a couple of other customers related to various programs.

正如您所提到的，Fiskars 在我們身後，我們正在與其他幾個客戶就各種計劃進行最後的談判。

And we expect those conversations to happen in the fourth quarter.

我們預計這些對話將在第四季進行。

And so that's really what's driving the change in sales and in margin.

因此，這確實是推動銷售額和利潤率變化的因素。

And is there any update on filling the idled or they can capacity?

關於填補閒置或可用容量是否有任何更新？

Good morning, Dan.

早上好，丹。

We continue to have discussions, but nothing significant or talk about in outside the call it the customer NDAs and discussions.

我們繼續進行討論，但除了客戶保密協議和討論之外，沒有任何重要的事情或討論。

But I can say there is a few discussions on going towards the I would say that 26, 27 timeframe, maybe more than 27.

但我可以說，有一些關於走向 26 日、27 日，甚至可能超過 27 日的討論。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

To default would like to ask about the recoveries.

違約想詢問一下回收情況。

Understand 3Q is at the nonrepeat benefit, but what is the outlook on recoveries going forward?

了解第三季的收益是不可重複的，但未來復甦的前景如何？

And specifically, can you talk to this that, you know, you've obviously incurred a fair amount of expense tooling, valve sedation expense for Hub different programs that have been delayed volumes coming in of far below what was originally anticipated.

具體來說，您能談談這一點嗎？

So maybe you can you just give us a sense of the tone and tenor of those discussions and the potential for recovery payments due down the line?

那麼，也許您可以讓我們了解這些討論的基調和基調，以及未來收回付款的可能性嗎？

Daniel on Sterling.

丹尼爾談斯特林。

And that has slowly as digital in this first thing, because the customer facing pieces, when you look at the commercial and we have in the in the discrete items in that role, we talk about the 75 basis points from the 50 basis points of pickup commercial.

這在第一件事中慢慢地變得數位化，因為面向客戶的部件，當你看廣告時，我們在該角色的離散項目中，我們談論從 50 個基點的提貨到 75 個基點商業的。

I just wanted to clarify, I think is what we had had was we had commercial headwinds in Q3 of 2023 that aren't recurring.

我只是想澄清一下，我認為我們在 2023 年第三季遇到的商業逆風不會再次出現。

So really the impact that we have in Q3 of 2024 for not as significant.

因此，我們在 2024 年第三季產生的影響實際上並不那麼重大。

And these are commercial recoveries related to various customer negotiations and eight, similar to the inflationary recoveries.

這些是與各種客戶談判相關的商業復甦，八個與通貨膨脹復甦類似。

We expect them in the second half of the year.

我們預計它們將在今年下半年上市。

And then the question regarding your tooling and engineering and so on and so forth, even with the departments and volume reductions, so pulling remain agnostic, right?

然後是關於你的工具和工程等等的問題，即使部門和數量減少了，所以拉動仍然是​​不可知的，對嗎？

B2b get paid on that.

B2b 以此獲得報酬。

And the upfront, there's two pieces have been sharing payments.

前期，有兩塊已經共享付款。

one that I will say is paid once you get to a certain path milestone in the program, that is usually pretty good.

我想說的是，一旦你達到計劃中的某個路徑里程碑，就會得到報酬，這通常是相當不錯的。

So the question becomes the amortized engineering into the piece price that becomes a discussion right.

所以問題變成了攤銷工程成單價就成了討論的問題。

To your second part of the question, the tone and tenor of discussions, there are always tough like anything else, negotiations or discussions, but I would say we are on track.

對於問題的第二部分，即討論的基調和基調，談判或討論總是像其他事情一樣艱難，但我想說我們正在走上正軌。

They are fail, but we also have no choice that we have to address all the headwinds that we've been facing and in the spirit of partnership date to reevaluate.

他們失敗了，但我們別無選擇，我們必須解決我們一直面臨的所有阻力，並以合作夥伴的精神重新評估。

And we've put things on the table, our how we need to be heavily so that we can have the partnership healthy and it's good for the industrial.

我們已經把事情擺在桌面上，我們需要如何努力，以便我們能夠保持健康的夥伴關係，這對工業有好處。

So yes, they're tough, but we are having those conversations.

所以，是的，他們很難，但我們正在進行這些對話。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And your next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的喬許‧斯佩克特 (Josh Spector)。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

It's all 100 on for Joe.

喬已經滿 100 分了。

I'm just sort of following up on the recoveries.

我只是在跟進康復情況。

Ford publicly talked about sort of supplier reimbursements for they canceled TV program.

福特公開談論了供應商因取消電視節目而進行的補償。

I was wondering if you look at sort of give us some time on us to one when you would expect sort of those recoveries.

我想知道您是否會考慮給我們一些時間，當您期望我們能夠康復時。

Is that sort of more of a 2025 of them?

這更像是 2025 年的情況嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's a combination of other things because for a big customer for us and you know, we look at for all holistically thing, I think it's difficult to put a specific date, given the complexity of various things that are growing at the overall, then it's progressing.

我認為這是其他因素的結合，因為對於我們的大客戶來說，我們會從整體上考慮所有事情，我認為很難確定具體日期，因為各種事情的複雜性總體上正在增長，然後事情就進展了。

And you know, we'll have a framework that going to be there, but I think it will be multiple years as we go through.

你知道，我們將會有一個框架，但我認為這將需要很多年的時間。

And can you give us sort of a little more color like how much you're investing for that program and what was built out already and what still did not get built out for that program?

您能否給我們更多信息，例如您為該計劃投資了多少，以及已經為該計劃構建了哪些內容以及尚未構建哪些內容？

That we won't comment on that because of you would have a facility part of a facility.

我們不會對此發表評論，因為您將擁有設施的一部分。

There is capacity allocation and it is specific program capital that we've gone.

我們已經進行了容量分配和特定項目資本。

So very difficult to go through.

所以很難通過。

Some of it was in place and some of it was phase.

有些已經到位，有些還處於階段性。

So which was not putting in place.

所以這沒有落實到位。

So it's a very complex question to put a discrete number wrong.

所以把離散數寫錯是一個非常複雜的問題。

Okay.

好的。

And then these as a follow-up, can you just give us a little more color on what's driving higher sales quarter over quarter at the midpoint?

作為後續行動，您能否為我們提供更多關於推動中點銷售額逐季成長的因素的資訊？

And based on sort of your production outlook for the year, it looks like production would be down a little more year over year in the fourth quarter.

根據今年的生產前景，第四季的產量似乎會比去年同期下降更多。

Just maybe some puts and takes on to higher sales in the fourth quarter.

也許只是一些看跌期權和承兌匯票會帶來第四季度更高的銷售額。

They have to make the consolidated level DQ. three does tend to be a low production period.

他們必須進行綜合級別DQ。三是往往處於低產期。

Mahendra end.

馬亨德拉結束。

As Dan mentioned earlier, we are seeing an uptick in sales in our CDA. segment, primarily related to the engineering, which would it be production base, but rather finalization of the engineering agreements will not be the biggest driver on the upside.

正如 Dan 之前提到的，我們看到 CDA 的銷售額有所上升。部分，主要與工程相關，這將是生產基地，但工程協議的敲定不會成為上行的最大推動力。

And we have a little bit of foreign exchange tailwinds.

我們有一點外匯順風。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Welcome.

歡迎。

And your next question comes from the line of Tom O'Brien with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的湯姆·奧布萊恩 (Tom O'Brien)。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

I see cash up.

我看到現金了。

A question on the buyback on financing that buyback.

關於回購融資的問題。

You mentioned you had 1.1 billion in cash balance, 3.7 billion total liquidity, potentially more free cash flow coming from lower CapEx.

您提到您擁有 11 億美元的現金餘額，37 億美元的總流動資金，以及來自較低資本支出的潛在更多自由現金流。

And I know you have debt to 1.93 leverage coming down to 1.5 or one than that 1.5.

我知道你的債務為 1.93，槓桿率降至 1.5，或比 1.5 低一倍。

Just us putting all that together.

只有我們把所有這些放在一起。

Any event production come down next year is a lot of folks.

明年任何活動的製作都會有很多人。

Some folks are expecting.

有些人正在期待。

How would you seek to finance given all of these different dynamics switching reduced and P and L, is your thoughts of paying down debt to get that leverage ratio in the event of EBITDA comes down next year, which a lot of suppliers are talking about.

考慮到所有這些不同的動態變化以及損益的減少，您將如何尋求融資，如果明年 EBITDA 下降，您是否會考慮償還債務以獲得槓桿率，這是許多供應商正在討論的問題。

Just would love to hear how you think about the different puts and takes?

只是想聽聽您如何看待不同的投入和獲取？

Yes, good morning, Tom.

是的，早上好，湯姆。

I think like I said, the key thing for us is to have that balance between maintaining the investment grade rating and sticking to the guardrails that we talked about the one to 1.5, but into the end of next year, there might be some lumpiness, but that's to kind of like the guiding principle, as Pat talked about, you look into the visibility of the plan that we have at this point in time.

我認為就像我說的，對我們來說關鍵是在維持投資等級評級和堅持我們談到的 1 到 1.5 的護欄之間保持平衡，但到明年年底，可能會出現一些波動，但這有點像指導原則，正如帕特所說，你要研究我們目前計劃的可見性。

We have made, I would say, modest set of assumptions for volume production.

我想說，我們對大量生產做出了一系列適度的假設。

That's number two.

這是第二位。

Given all of that, we feel comfortable that we can get to go up to the 10% float buyback.

考慮到所有這些，我們對能夠達到 10% 的浮動回購感到放心。

But as you know, the share repurchases, we have to balance that with market conditions in the market conditions change drastically at that point of time.

但如你所知，在股票回購方面，我們必須在當時市場條件發生巨大變化的情況下平衡這一點。

No real balance between what we're buying back and what we have in terms of balancing.

我們回購的產品和我們擁有的平衡產品之間沒有真正的平衡。

But this has to be more at industry level change, which would affect everybody at that point on time.

但這必須是產業層面的變化，這會影響當時的每個人。

And then we have to relook at how much and what we're doing and how we go about it.

然後我們必須重新審視我們正在做什麼、做了多少以及如何做。

But at this point of time, I'm with very modest assumptions of production into 25.

但目前，我對產量的假設非常保守，為 25。

We feel pretty confident that we have a plan in place.

我們非常有信心我們已經制定了計劃。

Yes, I think the only thing I'd ask Tom is if you go back to when we laid out this plan going back 18 months of our deleveraging plans take contemplated that we have term debt that's repayable.

是的，我想我唯一要問湯姆的是，如果你回到我們制定這個計劃的時候，回溯 18 個月的去槓桿化計劃，是否考慮到我們有可償還的定期債務。

We borrowed against our CP. programs and you put that factor in that's still in place that you have to.

我們以 CP 為抵押借款。程序，你把這個因素放在你必須做的地方。

We put in perspective that our cash flow expectations that we executed in 2023 against our free cash flow, we continue to expect to execute in 2024.

我們認為，我們在 2023 年執行的現金流預期與我們的自由現金流相比，我們仍預期在 2024 年執行。

So we're just moving along the path and determines the earlier questions.

所以我們只是沿著這條路前進並確定之前的問題。

We just have more confidence in that path.

我們只是對這條道路更有信心。

And so I don't think it's going to be a situation.

所以我認為這不會成為一種情況。

Cash might bounce up and down and one 200 million just dependent on timing.

現金可能會上下波動，一、兩億只取決於時機。

But we're going along that path of how we pay down the term debt and stock borrowing on CP.

但我們正在沿著如何償還 CP 定期債務和股票借貸的道路前進。

Okay.

好的。

And the expectation on the better for cash flow that's coming from a combination of potentially lower CapEx as we get better EBITDA.

隨著我們獲得更好的 EBITDA，我們對現金流的預期會更好，這來自於可能較低的資本支出。

Right, coming from your, I guess, growth over market production assumption?

對吧，我猜，來自於你對市場產量成長的假設？

That's right, Tom, it's lower engineering spend, lower CapEx, better EBITDA.

是的，湯姆，它降低了工程支出，降低了資本支出，提高了 EBITDA。

Yes, sir.

是的，先生。

So collateral is also remarkable also operational excellence type.

因此，抵押品也是卓越的營運類型。

Yeah, Fred, right.

是的，弗雷德，對。

Cost control and Young.

成本控制年輕。

Obviously, I'm sure you guys seeing a lot of the new suppliers in the industry.

顯然，我確信你們看到了業內很多新的供應商。

I'm very cautious on 25.

25號我非常謹慎。

There's one OEM customer, which you guys have been dramatically cutting production this quarter and potentially next year.

有一個 OEM 客戶，你們本季和明年可能大幅削減產量。

And we've heard European OEMs talking about the CO2 clip on regulatory, which they're worried about somewhat, what some of them are kind of shut down plants, amazing.

我們聽到歐洲原始設備製造商談論監管方面的二氧化碳排放限制，他們對此有些擔心，其中一些是關閉工廠，令人驚訝。

The thinking is that in Europe, your Sara level, so to speak and dropped like a $14 million level set of used to be 16 before the pandemic.

人們的想法是，在歐洲，你的 Sara 水平可以說是下降了，就像大流行之前 1400 萬美元的水平設置一樣，以前是 16。

Now that said, there is a pickup expected in EV sales to meet the CO2 requirements.

話雖如此，為了滿足二氧化碳排放要求，電動車銷售量預計將回升。

So it's kind of like this a double-edge sword thing.

所以這有點像是一把雙面刃。

Is it a net benefit?

這是淨收益嗎？

It EV.s recover for you guys, especially in Europe, in the event there's a drop in production, presumably that's higher content per vehicle, et cetera.

如果產量下降，電動車會為你們恢復，尤其是在歐洲，大概每輛車的含量會更高，等等。

How do you think about that kind of drug after the disaster scenario production falling off next year, if easy picks up next year?

明年災難情境產量下降後，如果明年容易恢復的話，您如何看待這種藥物？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, Tom, I think the copper plant they won, you know, the scenario planning for drastic drop outs, like you said, a colleague type scenario is something that you don't build as a baseline newbuild that to figure out how we can interested if that happens.

是的，湯姆，我認為他們贏得了銅廠，你知道，劇烈退出的情景規劃，就像你說的，同事類型的情景不是你構建的基線新建項目，而是為了弄清楚我們如何能夠如果發生這種情況有興趣。

Right.

正確的。

So that's one of the second thing between you and I would say we would be pretty balanced on some of the EV platforms in our beds.

所以這是你和我之間的第二件事之一，我們會在床上的一些電動車平台上保持相當平衡。

As an example, our VTS segment, the content per vehicle would be higher.

舉個例子，我們的 VTS 細分市場，每輛車的內容會更高。

So if there is tailwinds on some of the programs that we've invested total, like the battery enclosures, then you will see a tailwind.

因此，如果我們總共投資的某些項目（例如電池外殼）出現順風，那麼您就會看到順風。

If so that's on the debt side.

如果是這樣，那就是債務方面。

I think we have always been saying we are we have and continue to build flexibility.

我認為我們一直在說我們擁有並將繼續建立靈活性。

A lot of our product clients agnostic one or the other.

我們的許多產品客戶對其中之一不可知。

But if we if we are in the EV platform, supply to meet or exceed our rate or any other products, obviously have an impact.

但如果我們在電動車平台上，供應達到或超過我們的價格或任何其他產品，顯然會產生影響。

But the idea is no matter which way it goes.

但這個想法無論走哪條路都是如此。

I think we feel pretty balanced.

我認為我們感覺很平衡。

But if you take gross debt is a higher content per vehicle in that case.

但如果考慮總債務，那麼在這種情況下，每輛車的債務含量就更高。

And if I could just sneak in one last one.

如果我能偷偷溜進最後一件就好了。

The U.S. I know you talked about Complete Vehicle the margin uplift in Q4, but it looks like the implied margin for the U.S. for Q4 is the highest end and midpoint, I think, in the whole year.

美國我知道您談到了第四季度整車利潤率的上升，但我認為，美國第四季的隱含利潤率似乎是全年的最高點和中點。

So that's coming from the no other than what you're talking about earlier, the producing lithium recovery.

所以這來自於你之前所說的鋰回收生產。

Sorry, from the OEMs or something else specifically a place that I think you got it right, Tom, it's a settlement of claims, commercial recoveries.

抱歉，來自原始設備製造商或其他地方，我認為您說得對，湯姆，這是索賠和解，商業追償。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

And your next question comes from the line of James Picariello with BMP. Paribus.

你的下一個問題來自 James Picariello 與 BMP 的對話。平衡。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Just on your industry volume assumption of down 2% for the full year, which largely aligned with us.

就你們的行業銷量假設而言，全年下降 2%，這在很大程度上與我們一致。

So I assume it's informed by your customer build schedules at this time.

所以我認為您的客戶此時的建置計劃已通知您。

Right.

正確的。

So can you just provide context on what your level of visibility is for the fourth quarter for the fourth quarter?

那麼，您能否提供有關第四季度的可見性水平的背景資訊？

Because there are a few others suppliers that are calling for a 4% cut to the full year, implying almost a 10% decline for this upcoming quarter.

因為還有其他一些供應商要求全年降價 4%，這意味著下個季度將降幅近 10%。

So I guess to piggyback off John's first question, how would you handicap your industry volume assumption in what is that level of backlog or unique seasonal timing for Magnus programs that that informs this fourth quarter assumption?

因此，我想藉用約翰的第一個問題，你將如何限制你的行業數量假設，即馬格努斯計劃的積壓水平或獨特的季節性時間是多少，這為第四季度的假設提供了信息？

Thanks.

謝謝。

So good morning, James, or maybe lose can add, I think we have visibility on.

早上好，詹姆斯，或者也許輸球可以補充，我認為我們有可見性。

So program releases, obviously.

顯然，程式已發布。

But you have to consider the program related to this call are protected mix, and they have changes in our given the uncertain again, what's happening in the industry and how they're dealing with inventories and so on and so forth.

但是你必須考慮與此呼叫相關的程序是受保護的組合，並且考慮到再次不確定性，行業中正在發生的事情以及他們如何處理庫存等等，他們已經發生了變化。

So you cannot put that in the system.

所以你不能將其放入系統中。

I mean, we are dealing with on an everyday basis by flexing what we can in terms of direct labor and in all other aspects of our business.

我的意思是，我們每天都在透過在直接勞動力和業務的所有其他方面發揮我們所能來應對。

So we take that and continue to flex at an operational level.

因此，我們接受這一點，並繼續在營運層面上進行靈活調整。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

That's part of our operational process of difficult to read.

這是我們難以閱讀的操作流程的一部分。

We are seeing softness.

我們看到了柔軟性。

I think we have been pretty prudent.

我認為我們一直非常謹慎。

But with that said, we've got eight more rigs to go on there.

但話雖如此，我們還有八台鑽孔機要在那裡安裝。

Some announcements that came out yesterday, which obviously we didn't account for in the data that you're seeing.

昨天發布的一些公告，顯然我們沒有在您看到的數據中考慮到。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then just on on the buybacks and apologies if this was already answered.

如果這個問題已經得到解答，然後就進行回購和道歉。

But with respect to your leverage target, is there and there's a presumption or an expectation to trend slightly or moderately above that for a period of time to next year?

但就您的槓桿目標而言，是否有假設或預期在明年的一段時間內會略微或適度高於該目標？

I'm just so we could get a sense for the bandwidth of that leverage our share buyback commitment for for the next 12 months.

我只是為了讓我們能夠了解我們未來 12 個月的股票回購承諾的槓桿作用範圍。

Next, James, I think we have said our principles are unchanged, and I've talked about getting to that targeted range towards the end of 25.

接下來，詹姆斯，我想我們已經說過我們的原則沒有改變，而且我已經談到了在 25 年底之前達到目標範圍。

And that has isn't changed.

這一點沒有改變。

I think pad in answering one of the questions did mention that there might be ups and downs over the course of the year in terms of the cash balances and our leverage ratio.

我認為帕德在回答其中一個問題時確實提到，現金餘額和槓桿率在這一年中可能會出現起伏。

But our directional target are adding to the leverage ratio target by end of 25 permits.

但我們的定向目標是在 25 個許可證結束時增加槓桿目標。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Google.

Google.

And your next question comes from the line of Bruno.

你的下一個問題來自布魯諾。

Does the now with Wolfe Research.

現在與沃爾夫研究公司一起做。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hi, thank you for taking the questions that I was hoping to get some more context on the free cash flow outlook, both near term near and longer term.

您好，感謝您提出問題，我希望獲得有關近期和長期自由現金流前景的更多背景資訊。

So I guess near term, you're still guiding to 700 million of free cash flow this year at the midpoint.

因此，我認為短期內，您今年的自由現金流仍將達到 7 億的中點。

And my math is right, you year to date, it's roughly breakeven.

我的數學是正確的，今年迄今為止，大致處於收支平衡。

So maybe first, you could help us understand the bridge to Pinnacle between six and 800 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter alone and then longer term and exiting.

因此，也許首先，您可以幫助我們了解通往 Pinnacle（平博）的橋樑，僅第四季度就有 6 到 8 億的自由現金流，然後是長期和退出。

This is more follow-up too on to Tom's earlier question.

這也是對湯姆之前問題的更多後續。

But flow next year.

但明年流。

And we don't yet have an exact date, but we know that next year or could then be challenging for no other reason than you're lapping a year where your largest customers are restocking and we know that order books for European customers going or a deafening.

我們還沒有確切的日期，但我們知道明年或之後可能會充滿挑戰，因為今年您最大的客戶正在補貨，而且我們知道歐洲客戶的訂單將進行或震耳欲聾。

And so I was hoping you could quantify the factors fully in your control CapEx, R&D spend and potentially for the restructuring that you could do to expand free cash flow, the respective of the production outlook things.

因此，我希望您能夠充分量化您控制的資本支出、研發支出以及擴大自由現金流量而可能進行的重組以及生產前景的相關因素。

So I think the biggest thing variable would be the volumes, right?

所以我認為最大的變數是數量，對吧？

And I have said we are kind of considering the volumes going into next year being flattish or maybe around that.

我說過，我們正在考慮明年的銷售量持平或大約在這個水平。

And we give a lot more color and specifics when we come back in February.

當我們二月回來時，我們會提供更多的顏色和細節。

But I think in the what you're seeing in terms of free cash flow is normal course of this year.

但我認為，你所看到的自由現金流是今年的正常情況。

And we feel pretty good about those staying in the range of 6 to 800 to be mentioned.

我們對那些保持在 6 到 800 範圍內的人感覺很好。

And we also can I indicated in the last calls, for 2026, we are expecting to be in the range of 2 billion, right?

我還可以在最近的電話會議中指出，到 2026 年，我們預計這一數字將在 20 億左右，對嗎？

So given the this market economics, as we sit today and the volume assumptions, which are pretty flattish, our set of assumptions being flattish compared to 24 going into 25 and 26, I wouldn't say there's still hold, but if that assumptions changed drastically that you said, obviously, we have to look for Canada, but a lot of the things that are not control, whether it's capital, whether it's operational discipline and saying that we feel pretty good about and we can renewed to scrub and look at those numbers.

因此，考慮到這個市場經濟，正如我們今天所坐的，以及數量假設，這是相當平坦的，與24 進入25 和26 相比，我們的一組假設是平坦的，我不會說仍然成立，但如果這些假設發生變化完全就是你說的，很明顯，我們要找加拿大，但是很多東西是控制不了的，不管是資本，不管是運營紀律，說我們感覺還不錯，我們可以重新去擦洗，看看那些數字。

Sir, last question is going to come from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

先生，最後一個問題將來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼 (Mark Delaney)。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Yes, good morning and thanks very much for taking my question.

是的，早上好，非常感謝您提出我的問題。

I had just one for me is fine up on James's question and I'm just trying to understand from your comments around the fourth quarter and five revenue outlook.

我只是想從你對第四季和第五季收入前景的評論中了解詹姆斯的問題。

I think you said there's a development that came out yesterday that maybe you didn't account for in the industry view, but you also describe the revenue forecast is prudent to just wanted to make sure I understood what your messages there.

我想你說昨天出現了一個發展，也許你沒有在行業觀點中考慮到這一點，但你也描述了收入預測是謹慎的，只是想確保我理解你的信息。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, maybe the revenue view is more bottom up and data schedules.

我的意思是，也許收入觀點更多的是自下而上和數據時間表。

And so you still feel confident in that.

所以你對此仍然充滿信心。

And maybe there's some sort of a negative impact of the industry forecast.

也許產業預測會產生某種負面影響。

But I do want to make sure you are trying to say there's some rest of the revenue view attitude.

但我確實想確保你想說的是，還有一些其他的收入觀點態度。

To answer to Andrew's question regarding Mark, and thanks for asking that question.

回答安德魯關於馬克的問題，感謝您提出這個問題。

No, what I see meant is to give you an example that announcements are coming on every day basis, certainly be very difficult to put an exact number on a good thing.

不，我的意思是給你舉個例子，每天都會有公告，當然很難對一件好事給出確切的數字。

But just to clarify, given all the data that we have and the setup assumption of 50 have taken, unless there's something very drastic still forthcoming, I feel pretty comfortable and expect to be in line with what we've put out for the fourth quarter and even where we could have releases if the our recent history is that the releases keep things that results actually become sort of releases.

但澄清一下，考慮到我們擁有的所有數據和 50 的設定假設，除非即將發生一些非常激烈的事情，否則我感覺很舒服，並期望與我們為第四季度發布的數據保持一致即使我們可以發布版本，如果我們最近的歷史是版本保留了結果實際上成為某種版本的東西。

We're kind of handicapping that as well a little bit so that we've taken a pretty prudent, prudent view here.

我們也有點阻礙這一點，所以我們在這裡採取了非常謹慎的觀點。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you for the clarification.

謝謝您的澄清。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Selling and have another question queue.

出售並有另一個問題隊列。

Our next question will come from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的科林·蘭根 (Colin Langan)。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

So thanks for taking my question.

謝謝你提出我的問題。

There.

那裡。

Just wanted to follow up on the for the quarter over quarter, walk from Q3 to Q4 from the sales are it looks like about a 44% contribution margin on those higher sales sequentially, which is pretty high.

只是想跟進每季的情況，從第三季到第四季的銷售額，看起來這些較高銷售額的貢獻率約為 44%，這是相當高的。

And on top of it, most of them are pretty much all that growth is actually coming from CVA, which has a lower margin business.

最重要的是，其中大多數成長實際上都來自 CVA，該公司的利潤率較低。

So so I think you mentioned in the assets, there's maybe a settlement coming that's helping what is driving that sort of outsized underlying contribution margin.

因此，我認為您在資產中提到，可能會達成一項和解，這有助於推動這種巨大的基礎邊際貢獻。

And is that sort of our Q4 rate sustainable?

我們第四季的利率是否可持續？

Yes.

是的。

I think when according columns, when you think about moving from Q3 into Q4, you're bang on the sales change.

我認為，根據專欄，當您考慮從第三季度進入第四季度時，您會發現銷售變化。

We talked about the engineering and just the patterns settlements in the fourth quarter, so for companies.

我們討論了第四季度的工程和模式解決方案，對於公司來說也是如此。

So that's not going to have a traditional pull through its it's more binary in nature.

因此，這不會有傳統的推動力，它本質上更加二元化。

I would say when you look at overall, we are continuing to expect to see improvements in our commercial settlements, which would be consistent with what we've seen over the last two years.

我想說，從整體來看，我們繼續期望看到我們的商業和解有所改善，這與我們過去兩年所看到的情況一致。

And then part of the offset and the PLDT Group, we are seeing, again, everything at the midpoint, some some sales softness relative to Q3.

然後是抵銷和 PLDT 集團的一部分，我們再次看到一切都處於中點，相對於第三季度，一些銷售疲軟。

So you put those three together.

所以你把這三個放在一起。

That's really the bridge broadly and what is driving the sales softness and T&E, it comes back to everything Swamy Louis spoke about as far as the mix, and we're going to talk macro.

這確實是廣泛的橋樑，也是推動銷售疲軟和 T&E 的原因，它回到了 Swamy Louis 談到的混合方面的所有內容，我們將討論宏觀方面。

That's what we have in our coal volumes.

這就是我們的煤炭量。

You get a little bit more granular as to what we said.

您對我們所說的內容有了更具體的了解。

We look at our releases and then you have mix within those releases.

我們查看我們的版本，然後您可以在這些版本中進行混合。

So it's across hundreds of platforms.

所以它跨越了數百個平台。

It's a bottoms up and the reduction is less than two.

這是自下而上的，減少的數量還不到兩倍。

Got it.

知道了。

I have a payback of discussed a lot, but any framing of how we should think about meaningful?

我已經討論了很多的回報，但是我們應該如何思考的任何框架有意義嗎？

Because if I go back to 2018, 2019, you're actually doing over 1 billion a year of buybacks, which is more than your free cash flow.

因為如果我回到 2018 年、2019 年，你實際上每年進行超過 10 億美元的回購，這比你的自由現金流還要多。

Is this more like 100, $200 million a quarter or four or 500 million a quarter?

這更像是每季 100、2 億美元還是每季 4 或 5 億美元？

How should we be modeling it as we go forward?

當我們前進時，我們應該如何對其進行建模？

Yes, Colin, I won't get into those specifics.

是的，科林，我不會談論這些細節。

As we've talked about for us, share repurchase is really a long-term strategy and not a one-time thing, and that's how we intend to use.

正如我們所談論的，股票回購實際上是一項長期策略，而不是一次性的事情，這就是我們打算使用的方式。

And when we say we want to buy up to a 10% float, that is really our target, right?

當我們說我們想要購買最多 10% 的流通股時，這確實是我們的目標，對吧？

Maybe not exactly.

也許不完全是。

But that's kind of how we are heading.

但這就是我們的前進方向。

But it's also a dependence on market conditions.

但也取決於市場狀況。

And what happens in our programs from drop off in the macro doesn't change significantly.

我們的程式中巨集下降所發生的情況不會發生顯著變化。

It's difficult to say this is what we are planning now.

很難說這就是我們現在的計畫。

Right.

正確的。

But the idea of saying meaningful is it's just not who we are not going to sit here and wait for the third or fourth quarter of next year.

但說有意義的想法是，我們不會坐在這裡等待明年第三或第四季。

You're going to start now and it's going to be meaningful in the overall scheme of 10% float and 10% by when they are not buying when you want to get the financing of the rules are up to 10% floor and it applies for 12 months starting from the release of this November to next November.

你現在就要開始，這對於10% 的浮動利率和10% 的整體計劃來說是有意義的，當他們不購買時，當你想獲得融資時，規則最高可達10% 的下限，它適用於今年11月發佈到明年11月，共12個月。

Okay, up to 10%.

好吧，最多10%。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Glen with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾·格倫和雷蒙德·詹姆斯的對話。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Thank you for getting my question.

感謝您接受我的問題。

And I just wanted to ask one on commercial recoveries and the visibility, our commercial recoveries.

我只是想問一個關於商業復甦和可見性的問題，我們的商業復甦。

Is there a scenario where if the industry turns in 2020 filed the OEMs come under margin pressure?

如果產業在 2020 年發生轉變，是否會出現 OEM 面臨利潤壓力的情況？

Is there a risk that we could see these commercial recoveries have rolled back in a meaningful way?

我們是否有可能看到這些商業復甦以有意義的方式回落？

The simple answer notes because the I think in the previous calls, I've talked about a lot of these commercial recoveries are more procedural.

簡單的答案說明，因為我認為在之前的電話中，我已經談到了很多這些商業追償都更加程序化。

So they go into purchase orders are different terms and conditions and so on and so forth.

因此，他們簽訂的採購訂單有不同的條款和條件等等。

So it's not something thing that we are negotiating of the year.

所以這不是我們今年要談判的事情。

There is some part of it, but that goes into productivities that goes into various other parts of out, you know, the various commercial discussions.

其中有一部分，但這涉及生產力，涉及各種商業討論的其他各個部分。

But largely, I would say that's not the risk.

但在很大程度上，我想說這不是風險。

And then just on inventory levels, I know we read a lot of Boe at some concern on inventory levels, particularly across these three.

然後就庫存水準而言，我知道我們讀了很多英國央行的報告，對庫存水準有所擔憂，尤其是這三個方面。

Are you seeing any different communication from your customers on inventory levels versus what is being written about in the media?

您是否看到客戶關於庫存水準的溝通與媒體報道有任何不同？

No, I am not specifically by platform, right.

不，我不是專門按平台來的，對吧。

We do look very granular on our own, based on all of us have said in his comments, some releases and work to be seen inventory just for our reflection of our operations.

根據我們所有人在他的評論中所說的，我們自己看起來確實非常細緻，一些版本和工作清單只是為了反映我們的營運情況。

But we haven't seen anything specific other than what you're seeing it the fourth quarter.

但除了你在第四季看到的情況之外，我們還沒有看到任何具體的情況。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for getting me in.

謝謝你讓我進來。

And our final question is going to come from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

我們的最後一個問題將來自美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

I appreciate you sneaking me in for this quick follow-up.

感謝您偷偷地邀請我進行快速跟進。

Just wondering when you talk about these these recoveries and commercial settlements on in the second half for this year?

只是想知道您何時談論今年下半年的這些復甦和商業結算？

Written is really the genesis of those is a result of the contracts not working out from a volume perspective, the way the OEM. originally anticipate had.

書面的說法實際上是這些合約的根源是合約沒有按照 OEM 的方式從數量角度製定。本來就預料到了。

So effectively, these are kind of hedges and they wouldn't be occurring of business was going fairly well on those programs.

因此，這些實際上是一種對沖，如果這些計劃的業務進展順利，它們就不會發生。

So I mean, you would actually prefer the business to go well earned and money the way you were planning as opposed to dealing with these settlements.

所以我的意思是，你實際上更希望業務按照你計劃的方式賺得盆滿缽盈，而不是處理這些和解。

Right.

正確的。

It is there kind of an offset here.

這裡有一種偏移。

I just want to understand because I think is kind of a view that these are onetime kind of like you guys hit in the lottery.

我只是想理解，因為我認為這種觀點就像你們中了樂透一樣。

The reality, there is a result of things not going right at the OEM level that a fair characterization.

現實情況是，在 OEM 層面上事情進展不順利，這是一個公平的描述。

My simple answer is your characterization is correct.

我的簡單答案是你的描述是正確的。

We would like the business to be running well, they're not looking at lump sums.

我們希望業務運作良好，他們不考慮一次性付款。

There is some parts of it, which is an inflation.

其中有一部分是通貨膨脹。

What happened in 22, how we amend the terms some part of maybe addressing on a yearly basis, but it's more how do we make it embedded into that normal course of business and the overall content, like you said, John, is normal business runs well, and we added color the way we need to and the way it was intended to.

22 發生了什麼，我們如何修改條款的某些部分，可能每年都會解決，但更重要的是我們如何將其嵌入到正常的業務過程中，整體內容，就像你說的，約翰，是正常的業務運行好吧，我們按照我們需要的方式和預期的方式添加了顏色。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

Swamy, I turn the call back over team.

斯瓦米，我將電話轉回給團隊。

Thanks, everyone, for listening in today.

謝謝大家今天的收聽。

As you might have heard and hopefully get that we remain very highly focused on margin expansion, the capital discipline, that free cash flow generation and obviously on normalizing our capital allocation with increasing returns of capital to shareholders, we remain very confident and Magnus future.

正如您可能已經聽說並希望得到的那樣，我們仍然高度關注利潤擴張、資本紀律、自由現金流的產生，以及透過增加股東資本回報來規範我們的資本配置，我們仍然對馬格努斯的未來充滿信心。

Thanks for listening in and have a great day.

感謝您的收聽，祝您有美好的一天。

And this concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。