西南航空 (LUV) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Southwest Airlines Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call. My name is Jamie, and I'll be moderating today's conference. This call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on southwest.com in the Investor Relations section. After today's prepared remarks, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加西南航空公司 2022 年第三季度電話會議。我的名字是 Jamie，我將主持今天的會議。本次通話正在錄音，重播將在 south.com 的“投資者關係”部分提供。在今天準備好的發言之後，將有機會提問。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I'd like to hand the conference over to Mr. Ryan Martinez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

在這個時候，我想把會議交給投資者關係副總裁瑞安馬丁內斯先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter earnings call. In just a moment, we will share some prepared remarks and then open it up for Q&A. And on the call today, we have our CEO, Bob Jordan; President, Mike Van de Ven; Chief Operating Officer, Andrew Watterson; and Executive Vice President and CFO, Tammy Romo. We also have a few other senior leaders in the room today, including Ryan Green, our new Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer.

謝謝運營商，歡迎大家參加我們的第三季度財報電話會議。稍後，我們將分享一些準備好的評論，然後將其打開以進行問答。在今天的電話會議上，我們有我們的首席執行官 Bob Jordan；總裁，邁克·范德文；首席運營官安德魯·沃特森；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Tammy Romo。今天我們還有其他幾位高級領導人，包括我們新的執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Ryan Green。

A quick reminder that we will make forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectations of future performance, and our actual results could differ. Also, we had a few special items in our third quarter results, which we excluded from our trends for non-GAAP purposes, and we will reference our non-GAAP results today. So please refer to the press release from this morning in our Investor Relations website for more information.

快速提醒一下，我們將根據我們目前對未來業績的預期做出前瞻性陳述，我們的實際結果可能會有所不同。此外，我們在第三季度業績中有一些特殊項目，我們出於非 GAAP 目的將其排除在趨勢之外，我們今天將參考我們的非 GAAP 業績。因此，請參閱今天上午在我們的投資者關係網站上發布的新聞稿以獲取更多信息。

And with that, Bob, I'll turn it over to you.

有了這個，鮑勃，我會把它交給你。

All right. Well, thank you, Ryan, and I appreciate everybody joining us this morning. I'm just really pleased to report another solid profit in the third quarter of $316 million, excluding special items, or $0.50 a share. All in all, third quarter's bottom line results came in almost right in line with our expectations back in July, slightly better, in fact, and that really speaks to the more stable environment that we are operating in today versus where we were just 2 quarters ago. While not fully recovered yet, it makes a big difference in our ability to more effectively plan, set our flight schedules and avoid revising them, and deliver a more reliable operation both for our customers and our employees. That's exactly what we're doing in the second half of 2022, and that's what we plan to do going forward.

好的。好吧，謝謝你，瑞恩，我感謝今天早上加入我們的每個人。我真的很高興報告第三季度又一筆可觀的利潤，達到 3.16 億美元，不包括特殊項目，即每股 0.50 美元。總而言之，第三季度的底線結果幾乎與我們在 7 月份的預期相符，實際上略好一些，這確實說明了我們今天的運營環境與我們只有兩個季度的情況相比更加穩定前。雖然尚未完全恢復，但它對我們更有效地計劃、設置航班時刻表和避免修改它們的能力產生了很大影響，並為我們的客戶和員工提供更可靠的運營。這正是我們在 2022 年下半年所做的事情，也是我們未來計劃要做的事情。

Given the significant progress we've made thus far, we do not intend to republish or materially change our future flight schedules as was necessary to do during most of the pandemic. One of our primary goals for this year is returning to consistent profitability, and we are well on our way and continue to expect a solid profit for 2022. We are coming off of a record third quarter revenues and bookings appear strong as far as we can see in our booking curve. Demand trends, both volumes and yields, are robust.

鑑於我們迄今為止取得的重大進展，我們不打算重新發布或實質性地改變我們未來的航班時刻表，這在大流行期間是必要的。我們今年的主要目標之一是恢復持續的盈利能力，我們正在順利進行，並繼續期待 2022 年實現可觀的利潤。我們正在擺脫創紀錄的第三季度收入，而且預訂量似乎很強勁請參閱我們的預訂曲線。需求趨勢，無論是數量還是產量，都是強勁的。

We want to get properly staffed, and that's going very well. We remain on track with adding over 10,000 new employees this year, net of attrition, and we are getting much better staffed in key areas, with the exception of pilots, where our aggressive hiring efforts continue. And we are on track to hire 1,200 pilots this year and 2,100 pilots next year as planned.

我們希望得到適當的人員配備，而且進展順利。我們今年仍有望增加 10,000 多名新員工（扣除減員），而且我們在關鍵領域的人員配備要好得多，但飛行員除外，我們繼續積極招聘。我們有望按計劃在今年招聘 1,200 名飛行員，明年招聘 2,100 名飛行員。

We wanted to restore our operational reliability, and we are headed in the right direction, having made a lot of solid progress. As we shared previously, we restored some of our short-haul flying in the third quarter, which was a little early and at the expense of revenue now knowing where business demand has ended up. But the goal was to help the operation, and I believe we got the desired results in the third quarter.

我們希望恢復我們的運營可靠性，我們正朝著正確的方向前進，取得了很多紮實的進展。正如我們之前分享的那樣，我們在第三季度恢復了一些短途飛行，這有點早，而且以現在知道業務需求在哪裡結束的收入為代價。但目標是幫助運營，我相信我們在第三季度得到了預期的結果。

Going forward, we believe we have capacity better matched seasonally to demand in the fourth quarter, and you can see the benefit in our sequential revenue improvement from 3Q to 4Q based on our guidance. And as Mike will cover, our on-time performance this month has been very strong with high completion rates. And the thanks, of course, goes to our people who have [thoughtfully] restored our customer service advantage this year, another one of our top priorities. For January through August, the most recent data available, we remain #1 in customer service for the DOT's ranking for Marketing Carriers.

展望未來，我們相信第四季度的產能與需求的季節性匹配度更高，根據我們的指導，您可以看到我們從第三季度到第四季度的連續收入增長帶來的好處。正如邁克將介紹的那樣，我們本月的準時表現非常出色，完成率很高。當然，感謝我們的員工，他們今年 [周到地] 恢復了我們的客戶服務優勢，這是我們的另一個首要任務。從 1 月到 8 月，最新的可用數據顯示，在 DOT 的營銷運營商排名中，我們的客戶服務排名第一。

I'm just so thankful for our employees and how they have worked tirelessly together as a team, no matter the obstacle, and they have us solidly back on top of the industry. Again, our employees are the central proof and essence here of Southwest Airlines, and I'm just so very proud of them and all that they have done.

我非常感謝我們的員工以及他們如何作為一個團隊不知疲倦地一起工作，無論遇到什麼障礙，他們讓我們穩固地回到了行業的頂端。同樣，我們的員工是西南航空公司的核心證明和精髓，我為他們以及他們所做的一切感到非常自豪。

Jet fuel prices remain high, but we are 61% hedged in the fourth quarter and continue to expect healthy hedging gains. We continue to expect both inflationary cost pressures and cost headwinds from lower productivity and efficiency in fourth quarter. This was all anticipated in our full year guidance. And other than some timing of costs between 3Q and 4Q, our cost trends have been very stable. We've been executing well on our full year 2022 cost plan since we provided our full year CASM-X guidance back in January. And but for the Hurricane Ian impact to capacity, we are also executing on our full year 2022 capacity plan.

航油價格仍然居高不下，但我們在第四季度進行了 61% 的對沖，並繼續預期健康的對沖收益。我們繼續預計第四季度生產力和效率下降將帶來通脹成本壓力和成本逆風。這一切都在我們的全年指導中得到了預期。除了 3Q 和 4Q 之間的一些成本時間，我們的成本趨勢一直非常穩定。自從我們在一月份提供全年 CASM-X 指導以來，我們的 2022 年全年成本計劃一直執行良好。除了伊恩颶風對產能的影響，我們還在執行我們的 2022 年全年產能計劃。

Specific areas of focus for 2023 are to maintain adequate staffing and get caught up in pilot staffing, get new contracts with all labor groups, currently in negotiations, fully utilize our aircraft and optimize staffing to the fleet and flight activity, bring out cost inefficiencies and improve efficiency levels and operating leverage as we fully restore the network.

2023 年的具體重點領域是保持足夠的人員配備並趕上飛行員配備，與目前正在談判的所有勞工團體簽訂新合同，充分利用我們的飛機並優化機隊和飛行活動的人員配備，消除成本效率低下和隨著我們全面恢復網絡，提高效率水平和運營槓桿。

Our primary gating factor to growth next year continues to be pilot hiring, and I don't expect that we will be fully utilizing the fleet until late 2023. As of today, our flight schedules are published through July 10, 2023, and we feel good about our ability to fly those schedules as published and planned despite some uncertainty around aircraft deliveries.

我們明年增長的主要決定因素仍然是飛行員招聘，我預計我們要到 2023 年底才能充分利用機隊。截至今天，我們的航班時刻表發佈到 2023 年 7 月 10 日，我們認為儘管飛機交付存在一些不確定性，但我們有能力按照公佈和計劃的方式飛行這些時間表。

While we expect a healthy amount of capacity growth next year, it is nearly all going back into key Southwest markets. These are markets that we borrowed from to fund new airport expansion during the pandemic. And as business demand improves, we have opportunities to build those back up. And this is lower-risk growth primarily in markets where we have the #1 share and a strong Southwest customer base, so we don't believe the capacity additions carry near the risk of adding a new market. Our goal is to have the network fully restored by the end of 2023. And by summer 2023, we should be about 90% done.

雖然我們預計明年的運力增長將保持健康，但幾乎所有這些都將回到主要的西南市場。這些是我們在大流行期間為新機場擴建提供資金而藉來的市場。隨著業務需求的改善，我們有機會建立這些備份。這主要是在我們擁有第一大份額和強大的西南客戶群的市場中的低風險增長，因此我們認為產能增加不會帶來增加新市場的風險。我們的目標是到 2023 年底完全恢復網絡。到 2023 年夏天，我們應該完成大約 90%。

In closing, we've made tremendous progress this year, barring any significant unforeseen impacts, we should finish this year very strong given our fourth quarter outlook. While there's noise regarding whether we are headed into a recession or not or whether we may even be in one now, we have not seen any noticeable impact on our booking and revenue trends. There's also been a lot of discussion about the blending of business and leisure, why and where those trends may ultimately end up. But regardless, our overall revenue trends are strong and well above 2019 levels.

最後，我們今年取得了巨大進展，除非有任何重大的不可預見的影響，否則鑑於我們第四季度的前景，我們今年應該會非常強勁。雖然關於我們是否會陷入衰退，或者我們現在是否可能陷入衰退，但我們沒有看到對我們的預訂和收入趨勢有任何明顯的影響。關於商務和休閒的融合，以及這些趨勢最終會在哪裡結束以及在哪裡結束，也有很多討論。但無論如何，我們的整體收入趨勢強勁，遠高於 2019 年的水平。

Our work continues on developing a strong financial plan for next year, and we will share more about that at our upcoming Investor Day meeting in December. And I'm extremely proud of our employees for their dedication to the cause at Southwest Airlines. They're our greatest asset, and they're our secret weapon. They're the best in the business, and I know I can count on them to rally together and help us improve further in 2023.

我們將繼續為明年制定強有力的財務計劃，我們將在即將於 12 月舉行的投資者日會議上分享更多相關信息。我為我們的員工對西南航空公司事業的奉獻感到非常自豪。它們是我們最大的資產，也是我們的秘密武器。他們是業內最好的，我知道我可以指望他們團結起來，幫助我們在 2023 年進一步改進。

And before I turn it over to Tammy, I just want to say a big thank you to Mike. Mike has overseen the operations here at Southwest for over 16 years, and that is just a huge job and a huge task. He is a tremendous leader. I'm just very grateful, Mike, for all that you do. And I'm very grateful that you will continue to work as an adviser to me and others in the future.

在我把它交給塔米之前，我只想對邁克說一聲非常感謝。邁克已經監督西南航空的運營超過 16 年，這是一項艱鉅的工作和艱鉅的任務。他是一位了不起的領袖。邁克，我非常感謝你所做的一切。我非常感謝您將來繼續擔任我和其他人的顧問。

And I also want to say a big congrats to Andrew, to Linda and to Ryan for taking on even more. I really appreciate that. And today, Mike will report on operations, and Andrew will report on commercial. And then beginning at our December Investor Day, Andrew will speak to operations, and you will hear from Ryan regarding our commercial plans.

我還想對 Andrew、Linda 和 Ryan 表示非常祝賀，因為他們承擔了更多責任。我非常感謝。今天，邁克將報告運營，安德魯將報告商業。然後從 12 月的投資者日開始，Andrew 將與運營商交談，您將聽到 Ryan 關於我們的商業計劃的消息。

And with that, I will turn it over to Tammy.

有了這個，我會把它交給塔米。

Thank you, Bob, and thank you, Mike, my very dear friends for 3 decades of incredible leadership. And thanks also to all of our employees for their remarkable job throughout the quarter. In addition to delivering a high-quality experience for our customers, their efforts led to a solid third quarter performance. The strong demand trends from summer continued in third quarter, resulted in record third quarter revenue and record third quarter revenue passengers. Our third quarter operating revenues grew a healthy 10.3% versus 2019, aided by a very strong other revenue performance. Andrew will speak to our revenue trends in a minute, so I will turn to our cost performance and outlook.

謝謝你，鮑勃，謝謝你，邁克，我非常親愛的朋友們 3 年來令人難以置信的領導。還要感謝我們所有員工在本季度所做的出色工作。除了為我們的客戶提供高質量的體驗外，他們的努力還帶來了穩固的第三季度業績。從夏季開始的強勁需求趨勢在第三季度繼續，導致第三季度收入和第三季度乘客收入創紀錄。我們第三季度的營業收入與 2019 年相比健康增長了 10.3%，這得益於非常強勁的其他收入表現。安德魯將在一分鐘內談到我們的收入趨勢，所以我將轉向我們的成本績效和前景。

Our people did another great job managing costs in the quarter. Our fuel hedge continues to perform well in this environment, where market prices remain volatile and elevated, saving the company about $220 million in fuel expense in third quarter alone. We are 61% hedged for fourth quarter, and we currently estimate our fourth quarter fuel price to be in the $3.15 to $3.25 per gallon range, which would be a sequential improvement from third quarter's fuel price based on current prices. That estimate includes $0.37 of hedging gains, which equates to cost savings of more than $185 million in fourth quarter, which would put our full year 2022 fuel hedge benefit at roughly $1 billion.

我們的員工在本季度管理成本方面做得很好。我們的燃料對沖在市場價格持續波動和高漲的環境中繼續表現良好，僅在第三季度就為公司節省了約 2.2 億美元的燃料費用。我們對第四季度進行了 61% 的對沖，我們目前估計第四季度的燃油價格在每加侖 3.15 美元至 3.25 美元之間，這將比第三季度基於當前價格的燃油價格連續提高。該估計包括 0.37 美元的對沖收益，這相當於在第四季度節省了超過 1.85 億美元的成本，這將使我們 2022 年全年的燃料對沖收益約為 10 億美元。

We recently added to our 2023 fuel hedge portfolio and are now 50% hedged, with a fair market value of around $390 million for full year 2023. The fair market value of our fuel hedge portfolio through 2024 is $685 million. We will continue to seek opportunities to expand our hedging portfolio in 2024 and beyond, but we are in good shape headed into next year, especially given the volatile energy market over the past year that made it tough to materially expand our positions at historical premium cost.

我們最近在 2023 年燃料對沖投資組合中增加了 50% 的對沖，2023 年全年的公允市場價值約為 3.9 億美元。到 2024 年，我們的燃料對沖投資組合的公允市場價值為 6.85 億美元。我們將繼續尋找機會在 2024 年及以後擴大我們的對沖投資組合，但我們在進入明年的情況下處於良好狀態，特別是考慮到過去一年能源市場的波動，這使得我們很難以歷史溢價成本實質性擴大我們的頭寸.

Taking a look at nonfuel cost, third quarter CASM, excluding special items and profit sharing, was towards the favorable end of our previous guidance range at up 12.2%, compared with third quarter 2019 due to lower-than-anticipated health and benefit costs as well as higher favorable airport settlements that we expected to receive this quarter, but shifted earlier to third quarter.

看看非燃料成本，由於健康和福利成本低於預期，第三季度 CASM（不包括特殊項目和利潤分享）接近我們之前指導範圍的有利末端，與 2019 年第三季度相比上漲 12.2%我們預計本季度將收到更高的有利機場結算，但早些時候轉移到了第三季度。

We currently estimate fourth quarter CASM-X to increase in the range of 14% to 18% compared with fourth quarter 2019. More than half of that increase continues to be driven by headwinds from operating at suboptimal productivity levels, compounded by decreased capacity levels here in fourth quarter relative to third quarter. The remainder of the CASM-X increase continues to be primarily attributable to inflationary pressures, primarily in higher rates for labor, benefits and airports.

我們目前估計，與 2019 年第四季度相比，第四季度 CASM-X 將增長 14% 至 18%。其中一半以上的增長繼續受到以次優生產力水平運營的不利因素的推動，再加上這裡的產能水平下降第四季度相對於第三季度。 CASM-X 增長的其餘部分繼續主要歸因於通脹壓力，主要是勞動力、福利和機場的更高利率。

All of that said, I am very pleased that we remain on track with our 2022 cost plans, as Bob mentioned, especially in this environment. As we close out the year, our full year 2022 CASM-X guidance has narrowed to up 14% to 15% compared with 2019. As a reminder, this includes labor accruals for all contract labor groups beginning April 1 of this year, taking into account our best estimate for wage rate increases.

綜上所述，我很高興我們繼續按照 Bob 提到的 2022 年成本計劃進行，尤其是在這種環境下。隨著今年的結束，我們的 2022 年 CASM-X 全年指引與 2019 年相比已收窄至 14% 至 15%。提醒一下，這包括從今年 4 月 1 日開始的所有合同勞工團體的應計勞動力，考慮到考慮我們對工資增長的最佳估計。

Looking ahead to 2023, we continue to estimate full year CASM-X to decrease compared with this year. We now have our first half 2023 flight schedules published for sale, and we currently expect first half 2023 CASM-X to be in the range of flat to up 2% compared with first half 2022. Given the level of first half capacity growth, in a pre-pandemic period, we would have expected CASM-X to be subtly down year-over-year. However, we expect to continue experiencing unprecedented cost headwinds due to higher-than-expected inflation. And as part of that, keep in mind that we are accruing for all open labor contracts and further wage rate increases in 2023. So that is fully included in our guidance based on our best estimation of market rates.

展望 2023 年，我們繼續預計全年 CASM-X 將比今年下降。我們現在公佈了 2023 年上半年的航班時刻表以供出售，我們目前預計 2023 年上半年 CASM-X 與 2022 年上半年相比將在持平至上升 2% 的範圍內。鑑於上半年運力增長的水平，在在大流行前時期，我們預計 CASM-X 將同比略有下降。然而，由於通脹高於預期，我們預計將繼續面臨前所未有的成本逆風。作為其中的一部分，請記住，我們正在為 2023 年的所有未結勞動合同和進一步的工資率增長進行累積。因此，根據我們對市場價格的最佳估計，這完全包含在我們的指導中。

On top of wage rate inflation, we expect to continue hiring at a healthy pace next year to support 2023 capacity and scale for 2024 growth. Our productivity has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, which has required additional hiring to support the operation. It seems that most industries and companies, including our peers, are experiencing a similar workforce dynamic. Based on our assumption that fleet utilization will be limited by pilot staffing constraints for the majority of 2023, these cost headwinds will persist throughout next year, but should improve somewhat in second half relative to first half 2023.

除了工資率通脹之外，我們預計明年將繼續以健康的速度招聘，以支持 2023 年的產能和 2024 年增長的規模。我們的生產力尚未恢復到大流行前的水平，這需要額外招聘來支持運營。似乎大多數行業和公司，包括我們的同行，都在經歷類似的勞動力動態。基於我們的假設，即在 2023 年的大部分時間裡，機隊利用率將受到飛行員人員配置限制的限制，這些成本逆風將在明年持續存在，但相對於 2023 年上半年而言，下半年應該會有所改善。

We haven't finalized our second half 2023 capacity plans, but our current estimation is that second half 2023 CASM-X will decrease in the low to mid-single-digit range compared with second half 2022. We continue to be focused on better optimization of staffing levels to our flight activity and improving our efficiency metrics and operating leverage. That work will begin in 2023 and continue into 2024.

我們尚未最終確定 2023 年下半年的產能計劃，但我們目前的估計是，與 2022 年下半年相比，2023 年下半年 CASM-X 將在中低個位數範圍內下降。我們將繼續專注於更好的優化我們的飛行活動的人員配備水平，並提高我們的效率指標和運營槓桿。這項工作將於 2023 年開始並持續到 2024 年。

Turning to our fleet. Our planning assumption for Boeing aircraft deliveries this year remains unchanged from what we shared in July. While our contractual order book still reflects 114 aircraft in 2022, we continue to expect 66 -8 MAX deliveries this year due to supply chain challenges that Boeing is dealing with as well as uncertainty regarding the timing of the -7 MAX certification. However, we are encouraged to have received all 23 -8 MAX aircraft in the third quarter as expected and continue to expect 31 -8 MAX aircraft deliveries here in the fourth quarter. We do not expect to take delivery of any -7 MAX aircraft this year.

轉向我們的艦隊。我們對今年波音飛機交付的計劃假設與我們在 7 月份分享的假設保持不變。雖然我們的合同訂單仍然反映了 2022 年的 114 架飛機，但由於波音正在應對的供應鏈挑戰以及 -7 MAX 認證時間的不確定性，我們繼續預計今年將交付 66 架 -8 MAX。但是，我們很高興在第三季度按預期收到了所有 23 架 -8 MAX 飛機，並繼續預計第四季度將有 31 架 -8 MAX 飛機交付。我們預計今年不會接收任何-7 MAX 飛機。

We continue ongoing discussions with Boeing and just recently made some modifications to our order book. In short, we converted more -7 MAX aircraft to -8 MAX aircraft in the near term. We outlined the specific changes in our press release this morning, so I won't reiterate all of the fleet details here.

我們繼續與波音公司進行討論，最近剛剛對我們的訂單進行了一些修改。簡而言之，我們在短期內將更多的-7 MAX 飛機改裝為-8 MAX 飛機。我們在今天早上的新聞稿中概述了具體的變化，所以我不會在這裡重申所有的機隊細節。

In terms of retirements, we now plan to retire a total of 26 -700 aircraft this year, a few less than previously expected, ending the year with an estimated 768 aircraft in our fleet. And our full year 2022 CapEx guidance remains unchanged at approximately $4 billion.

在退役方面，我們現在計劃今年總共退役 26 架 -700 架飛機，比之前預期的要少一些，到年底我們的機隊中估計有 768 架飛機。我們的 2022 年全年資本支出指引保持不變，約為 40 億美元。

Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $13.7 billion after paying $1.9 billion to retire debt and finance lease obligations during third quarter. This included the full $1.2 billion outstanding amount of our 4.75% notes due 2023 and $184 million in principal of our convertible notes. We have now repurchased a total of $689 million of our convertible notes, roughly 30% of the original issuance, and have $1.6 billion currently outstanding.

轉向我們的資產負債表。在第三季度支付了 19 億美元以償還債務和融資租賃義務後，我們以 137 億美元的現金和短期投資結束了本季度。這包括我們 2023 年到期的 4.75% 票據的全部 12 億美元未償金額和我們的可轉換票據本金 1.84 億美元。我們現在共回購了 6.89 億美元的可轉換票據，約佔原始發行的 30%，目前有 16 億美元的未償付。

We remain in a net cash position with leverage at a very manageable 48%. We continue to be the only U.S. airline with an investment-grade rating by all 3 rating agencies, which remains one of our key long-term competitive advantages in good times and in challenging times. With our strong balance sheet and continued financial strength, we will soon discuss our 2023 capital plans with our Board of Directors, but our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. We have a long-standing dividend history, and reinstating a dividend remains a high priority. We will also continue to look for opportunities to reduce debt. We will continue investing in the company and our people, and we are focused on wrapping up negotiations with all of our open contract labor groups.

我們仍處於淨現金頭寸，槓桿率為 48%，非常可控。我們仍然是唯一一家獲得所有 3 家評級機構投資級評級的美國航空公司，這仍然是我們在繁榮時期和充滿挑戰的時期的主要長期競爭優勢之一。憑藉我們強勁的資產負債表和持續的財務實力，我們將很快與董事會討論我們的 2023 年資本計劃，但我們的資本配置優先事項保持不變。我們擁有悠久的股息歷史，恢復股息仍然是重中之重。我們還將繼續尋找減少債務的機會。我們將繼續對公司和我們的員工進行投資，我們將專注於結束與所有開放式合同勞工團體的談判。

Last but not least, and at the right time, we intend to resume share repurchases as part of our shareholder return equation as we have in the past. And all of these intentions assume that the travel demand environment remains steady, and we continue producing consistent quarterly profits. We are mindful of the economy and recessionary risk, and we would like to monitor the environment to see if there is any noticeable impact on travel demand as we move into 2023.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們打算在適當的時候恢復股票回購，作為我們過去的股東回報等式的一部分。所有這些意圖都假設旅行需求環境保持穩定，並且我們繼續產生穩定的季度利潤。我們注意到經濟和衰退風險，我們希望監測環境，看看我們進入 2023 年是否對旅行需求有任何明顯影響。

Again, we are not seeing any noticeable impact today, but we would like to preserve a higher-than-normal cash balance for some period of time into next year before we materially reduce our cash reserves. So while I can't commit to anything today, I hope that gives you an idea of how we are evaluating our capital allocation choices.

同樣，我們今天沒有看到任何明顯的影響，但我們希望在明年的一段時間內保持高於正常水平的現金餘額，然後再大幅減少現金儲備。因此，雖然我今天不能做出任何承諾，但我希望這能讓您了解我們如何評估我們的資本配置選擇。

In closing, third quarter represented another profitable quarter in our recovery. Our momentum is building here in fourth quarter, supported by a strong revenue outlook, and I am encouraged with the progress we have made as we look to close the year strong and turn our focus to 2023. We are committed to generating healthy returns on invested capital, and I am very pleased with the direction we are headed.

最後，第三季度代表了我們復甦的另一個盈利季度。在強勁的收入前景的支持下，我們在第四季度的勢頭正在增強，我對我們取得的進展感到鼓舞，因為我們希望強勁地結束這一年並將我們的重點轉向 2023 年。我們致力於為投資創造健康的回報資本，我對我們前進的方向感到非常滿意。

With that, I will turn it over to Andrew.

有了這個，我會把它交給安德魯。

Thank you, Tammy. I'll provide some additional color on our Q3 revenue trends and Q4 outlook and point you to our earnings release for more detail. Overall, Q3 operating revenues came in right in line with the midpoint of our original guidance range, up 10.3% versus Q3 2019. Our path there was a bit different than anticipated, but a solid result nonetheless. We had an 85.4% load factor, and yields increased 5.3% versus Q3 2019.

謝謝你，塔米。我將為我們的第三季度收入趨勢和第四季度展望提供一些額外的顏色，並為您指出我們的收益發布以獲取更多詳細信息。總體而言，第三季度的營業收入與我們最初指導範圍的中點相符，與 2019 年第三季度相比增長了 10.3%。我們的路徑與預期略有不同，但仍然取得了穩健的結果。與 2019 年第三季度相比，我們的載客率為 85.4%，產量增加了 5.3%。

In July and August, we saw a step back in close-end business demand, but that was coupled with stronger advanced purchase leisure demand. In September, we saw a nice sequential improvement in managed business revenues, and leisure demand remained stronger than anticipated and was particularly robust for a typically weaker leisure shoulder month post Labor Day. September managed business revenues finished down 25% versus Q3 2019. So while Q3 took a bit of a step back on business trends, we finished the quarter on a strong note, and revenue momentum is picking up steam.

在 7 月和 8 月，我們看到封閉式商業需求有所回落，但這與更強勁的高級購買休閒需求相結合。 9 月，我們看到管理業務收入連續改善，休閒需求仍然強於預期，對於勞動節後通常較弱的休閒肩月尤其強勁。與 2019 年第三季度相比，9 月份管理的業務收入下降了 25%。因此，儘管第三季度在業務趨勢上有所退步，但我們以強勁的勢頭結束了本季度，收入勢頭正在回升。

As anticipated, we had a 5-point sequential headwind from Q2 to Q3 for our travel credit expiration policy change in July, which resulted in lower breakage revenue in Q3. As Bob mentioned, we also increased our short-haul flying in Q3 in order to help with our operational stability. Mike will cover operational results in a moment. But we over-indexed some short-haul flying in Q3 relative to where business demand ended up, which created a roughly 2-point drag to Q3 operating revenue. As business demand rebound in September, the additional short-haul flying helped overall revenues, and our revenue trends in medium and long-haul segments were very strong throughout Q3.

正如預期的那樣，從第二季度到第三季度，我們在 7 月份的旅行信用到期政策變更中遇到了 5 個百分點的連續逆風，這導致第三季度的破損收入下降。正如 Bob 所說，我們還在第三季度增加了短途飛行，以幫助我們保持運營穩定性。 Mike 將在稍後介紹運營結果。但我們將第三季度的一些短途航班相對於業務需求的最終目標高估了，這對第三季度的營業收入造成了大約 2 個百分點的拖累。隨著 9 月份業務需求的反彈，額外的短途航班幫助整體收入增長，我們在中長途航線的收入趨勢在整個第三季度都非常強勁。

Our Q3 loyalty program revenue was exceptionally strong and the primary driver of the increase in the other revenues. We saw strong growth in retail sales, which was aided by incremental revenue from our co-brand credit card agreement with Chase that we secured at the end of last year. Even so, Q3 retail sales spend per cardholder and our overall portfolio size continue to grow versus 2019.

我們的第三季度忠誠度計劃收入異常強勁，是其他收入增長的主要驅動力。我們看到了零售額的強勁增長，這得益於我們在去年年底與大通達成的聯合品牌信用卡協議帶來的收入增加。即便如此，第三季度每位持卡人的零售支出和我們的整體投資組合規模與 2019 年相比繼續增長。

We continue to be very pleased with the performance of our loyalty program and its significant revenue and EBIT contribution. Our ancillary products also performed well in Q3, in particular, our upgraded boarding product. This allows customers to purchase any unsold business select boarding positions in the A1 to A15 boarding group on the day of travel. We recently rolled out a new digital self-service option to purchase this product, which was previously only available to purchase at the airport gate.

我們繼續對我們忠誠度計劃的表現及其可觀的收入和息稅前利潤貢獻感到非常滿意。我們的配套產品在第三季度也表現良好，尤其是我們升級後的登機產品。這允許客戶在旅行當天購買 A1 至 A15 登機組中任何未售出的商務精選登機位置。我們最近推出了一種新的數字自助服務選項來購買該產品，以前只能在機場登機口購買。

Our portfolio of new cities and development markets performed in line with expectations in Q3. Hawaii outperformed our expectations, primarily due to stronger Mainland to Hawaii performance as we further invested in and we optimized our Hawaii franchise. And these actions are paying off. Our Hawaii interisland service will take longer to development, and our primary goal at this point is generating awareness among local travelers and incentivize them to try Southwest and experience our product. This is not uncommon with introduction of new service.

我們的新城市和開發市場組合在第三季度的表現符合預期。夏威夷的表現超出了我們的預期，主要是由於我們進一步投資並優化了夏威夷特許經營權，因此大陸到夏威夷的表現更為強勁。這些行動正在取得成效。我們的夏威夷島際服務將需要更長的時間來開發，我們目前的主要目標是提高當地旅行者的意識，並激勵他們嘗試西南航空並體驗我們的產品。這在引入新服務時並不少見。

Now looking at Q4, travel demand is strengthening, and we expect both leisure and business revenue trends to improve sequentially from Q3, and bookings for the holidays are strong. We expect Q4 operating revenues to increase in the range of 13% to 17% versus Q4 2019. We expect sequential improvement in Q4 business revenue trends compared with September is down 25%, and we expect Q4 managed business revenues to be down 20% to 25% versus Q4 2019. The sequential improvement we are seeing in operating revenues is from base business improvement, in particular on the yield side, as we continue -- as well as continued ramp of benefits from revenue initiatives.

現在來看第四季度，旅遊需求正在增強，我們預計休閒和商業收入趨勢將比第三季度連續改善，假期預訂量強勁。我們預計第四季度營業收入將比 2019 年第四季度增長 13% 至 17%。我們預計第四季度業務收入趨勢與 9 月份相比將下降 25%，我們預計第四季度管理業務收入將下降 20% 至與 2019 年第四季度相比，增長了 25%。我們在營業收入方面看到的連續改善來自基礎業務的改善，尤其是在收益方面，隨著我們的繼續，以及收入計劃帶來的收益的持續增加。

Our Q3 capacity decreased slightly, down 0.3% versus Q3 2019, which was in line with our guidance, despite flight cancelations from Hurricane Ian. Our Q4 capacity is a little lower than previously guided due to Hurricane Ian flight cancellations and is now expected to be down approximately 2% versus Q4 2019. Stage length is increasing a bit as we move through Q4, and we continue to expect to be about 85% restored from a network perspective by this December.

儘管伊恩颶風取消了航班，但我們的第三季度運力略有下降，與 2019 年第三季度相比下降了 0.3%，這符合我們的指導。由於伊恩颶風航班取消，我們的第 4 季度運力略低於之前的指導，現在預計將比 2019 年第 4 季度下降約 2%。隨著我們進入第 4 季度，階段長度正在增加一點，我們繼續預計約為從網絡的角度來看，到今年 12 月恢復了 85%。

Looking ahead to next year, we expect Q1 2023 capacity to increase around 10% year-over-year and Q2 2023 capacity to increase around 14% year-over-year. While we aren't ready to provide full year '23 capacity guidance yet, that should give you an idea of the rate of capacity growth next year. When we talk about being fully restored from a network perspective, that means restoring the key Southwest markets that we borrowed from to fund the new airport growth during the pandemic. So our year-end 2023 capacity goal would be network restoration plus our 18 new airports and recent Hawaii expansion.

展望明年，我們預計 2023 年第一季度的產能將同比增長約 10%，2023 年第二季度的產能將同比增長約 14%。雖然我們還沒有準備好提供 23 年全年的產能指導，但這應該讓您對明年的產能增長速度有所了解。當我們從網絡的角度談論完全恢復時，這意味著恢復我們藉來的主要西南市場，以在大流行期間為新機場的增長提供資金。因此，我們 2023 年年底的容量目標將是網絡恢復以及我們的 18 個新機場和最近的夏威夷擴建。

In closing, this will be my last earnings call covering the commercial update as our new Chief Commercial Officer, Ryan Green, will take over going forward. I've worked with Ryan for a long time, and he's very prepared and well qualified for his expanded role. Some of you have met Ryan in the past, but he was most recently our Chief Marketing Officer. As I'm transitioning to Chief Operating Officer, I will retain the network planning function as we strive to increase operating leverage as we move past the pandemic and reconstruct the network. And being conscious that I'm standing on his shoulders for my new job, I thank you, Mike, and turn it over to you.

最後，這將是我最後一次涵蓋商業更新的財報電話會議，因為我們的新首席商務官 Ryan Green 將接任未來。我與 Ryan 合作了很長時間，他為他的擴展角色做好了充分的準備並且完全有資格。你們中的一些人過去曾見過 Ryan，但他最近是我們的首席營銷官。在我過渡到首席運營官的過程中，我將保留網絡規劃職能，因為我們在克服大流行病並重建網絡時努力提高運營槓桿。並且意識到我站在他的肩膀上為我的新工作，我感謝你，邁克，把它交給你。

Well, thank you, Andrew, and hello, everyone. We're now through the busy summer travel season. And aside from some weather that the industry had to deal with, I am very pleased with the reliability of the operations that our employees delivered in the third quarter. They're working very hard to take great care of each other and our customers. And we've made tremendous progress in several areas, including getting properly staffed in most workgroups, and we have more employees that have completed their initial training, and they're now contributing on the front line. So over 95% of our hiring has been in frontline and operations groups.

好吧，謝謝你，安德魯，大家好。我們現在正經歷著繁忙的夏季旅遊季節。除了行業不得不應對的一些天氣問題外，我對我們員工在第三季度交付的運營的可靠性感到非常滿意。他們非常努力地照顧彼此和我們的客戶。我們在幾個領域取得了巨大進步，包括在大多數工作組中配備適當的人員，我們有更多的員工完成了初步培訓，他們現在正在前線做出貢獻。因此，我們 95% 以上的招聘都來自一線和運營團隊。

Second, flying our published schedules without making material [posting] revisions. As Bob mentioned, our third quarter schedules were much more stable for our employees and our customers. And third, just as with last quarter, we have improved the quality of the schedule with more depth and more nonstop flights. Andrew mentioned we've added short-haul flights in business or in markets, and that provides more options when we have weather or ATC delays. We also have more flying between all of our crew bases, and all of those changes support a more stable operational performance.

其次，在不進行實質性 [發布] 修改的情況下執行我們發布的時間表。正如 Bob 提到的，我們第三季度的日程安排對我們的員工和客戶來說更加穩定。第三，與上個季度一樣，我們通過更深入和更多的直飛航班提高了時刻表的質量。安德魯提到我們在商務或市場中增加了短途航班，當我們遇到天氣或 ATC 延誤時，這提供了更多選擇。我們的所有機組人員基地之間也有更多的飛行，所有這些變化都支持更穩定的運營績效。

From Memorial Day through Labor Day, the heavy summer travel season, we improved year-over-year across nearly every operational metric, including our on-time performance. And our flight completion rate was 98.6%, which means we canceled slightly more than 1% of our scheduled flight, and that's in line with our pre-pandemic performance, and that's really where we aim to be. Digging into on-time performance for the third quarter, our on-time performance was 71.2%, which was referred to as A14 by the Department of Transportation or getting customers to their destination within 14 minutes of their scheduled arrival time.

從陣亡將士紀念日到勞動節這一繁忙的夏季旅遊旺季，我們幾乎在所有運營指標（包括我們的準時表現）上都取得了同比改進。我們的航班完成率為 98.6%，這意味著我們取消了略多於 1% 的預定航班，這與我們大流行前的表現一致，這正是我們的目標。深入研究第三季度的準點率，我們的準點率為 71.2%，被交通部稱為 A14 或讓客戶在預定到達時間的 14 分鐘內到達目的地。

So if you look at getting our customers to their destination within 30 minutes, our on-time performance increased to 81.7%, and it was 90.4% within an hour. Well, we always want to be on time, but my point is, is that we are currently canceling very few flights, and we're consistently getting the vast majority of our customers to their destinations within a reasonable amount of time. We are focused on improving our A14, and we know that the primary challenge is operating tempo.

因此，如果您考慮讓我們的客戶在 30 分鐘內到達目的地，我們的準點率提高到 81.7%，而在一小時內達到了 90.4%。嗯，我們總是希望準時，但我的觀點是，我們目前取消的航班很少，而且我們始終在合理的時間內讓絕大多數客戶到達目的地。我們專注於改進我們的 A14，我們知道主要挑戰是操作節奏。

And I talked about this last quarter, but I think it's worth repeating. Our operating tempo is being impacted by the sheer number of new hires starting work. We've got more leisure customers that are in our load factors, the airport environment as well as air traffic control challenges from both weather and staffing. And all of these things tend to require more time and are causing us some delays that just didn't exist pre-pandemic. However, we have made solid progress towards our historical operational results, and we're doing that at nearly pre-pandemic capacity levels.

我在上個季度談到了這一點，但我認為值得重複。我們的運營節奏正受到大量新員工開始工作的影響。我們的客座率、機場環境以及來自天氣和人員配備的空中交通管制挑戰中都有更多的休閒客戶。所有這些事情往往需要更多時間，並導致我們出現一些大流行前不存在的延誤。但是，我們在實現歷史運營結果方面取得了堅實的進展，而且我們正在以接近大流行前的能力水平做到這一點。

We aim to continue improving. We've got great momentum here in October with our on-time performance running in the low 80% range. We continue to hire and train new employees. And that should have us well prepared for the upcoming holiday season, and we should continue just to get better as we continue our network restoration through next year and get even more employees through training.

我們的目標是繼續改進。我們在 10 月份取得了良好的發展勢頭，準時率在 80% 的低位範圍內運行。我們繼續僱用和培訓新員工。這應該讓我們為即將到來的假期做好充分準備，我們應該繼續做得更好，因為我們將在明年繼續我們的網絡恢復，並通過培訓獲得更多員工。

And just a couple of more thoughts on hiring and training. We continue to hire in most workgroups and focus locations, and we still expect to add over 10,000 employees this year net of attrition. We just -- we aren't just hiring for this year, though, we're hiring to support the spring and the summer of 2023 so that we have a more seasoned workforce in place. Our pilot hiring and training continues to be the pacing factor for growth as we move forward. We continue to attract high-quality pilot candidates, and the training program to onboard a new pilot to Southwest Airlines are robust. We're operating at our maximum training capacity for pilots, and that will continue well into 2023.

還有一些關於招聘和培訓的想法。我們繼續在大多數工作組和重點地點招聘，我們仍預計今年將增加超過 10,000 名員工（扣除減員）。我們只是 - 我們不僅在今年招聘，我們還在招聘以支持 2023 年春季和夏季，以便我們擁有一支經驗更豐富的員工隊伍。隨著我們前進，我們的試點招聘和培訓仍然是增長的節奏因素。我們繼續吸引高質量的飛行員候選人，西南航空公司的新飛行員培訓計劃也很強大。我們正在以最大的飛行員培訓能力運作，並將持續到 2023 年。

And then just last, but certainly not least, I do want to congratulate my friend, Andrew Watterson, for his new role as Chief Operating Officer. I've been doing that role for almost 17 years, and I know Andrew is well prepared to take on this role. I know he's going to continue driving to modernize the operation. He's going to bring a new perspective and energy that will serve our company well. And I'm looking forward to transitioning into an executive adviser role early next year and assisting Bob and the Southwest team on a variety of matters as needed.

最後，但同樣重要的是，我要祝賀我的朋友 Andrew Watterson 擔任首席運營官的新角色。我已經擔任這個角色將近 17 年了，我知道 Andrew 已經做好了擔任這個角色的準備。我知道他將繼續推動運營現代化。他將帶來新的視角和能量，為我們公司服務。我期待著在明年初過渡到執行顧問的角色，並根據需要協助 Bob 和西南航空團隊處理各種事務。

I would like to thank all of our employees for their hard work. I especially want to say thank you to the entire operations team that I've been a part of and have had the pleasure to support all these years. Southwest is truly a championship team, and I am grateful that I will continue to be a part of it.

我要感謝我們所有員工的辛勤工作。我特別想對我參與並有幸支持這些年來的整個運營團隊表示感謝。西南航空確實是一支冠軍球隊，我很感激我將繼續成為其中的一員。

So with that, Ryan, I will turn it back over to you.

所以，瑞恩，我會把它還給你。

Well, thank you, Mike. We have analysts queued up for questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator, please go ahead and begin our analyst Q&A.

好吧，謝謝你，邁克。我們讓分析師排隊等待提問。 （操作員說明）操作員，請繼續，開始我們的分析師問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Didora。

Tammy, 2 quick questions on cost here. I know you've been accruing for labor most of this year. But do any of the -- does the recent deal from one of your peers change in any way how you accrue for your agreements going forward? And then second, on costs, does the low single-digit CASM growth that you outlined at last Investor Day after 2023 still seem reasonable in the current environment?

Tammy，這裡有 2 個關於成本的快速問題。我知道你今年大部分時間都在積累勞動力。但是，您的一位同行最近達成的協議是否會以任何方式改變您對未來協議的累積方式？其次，在成本方面，您在 2023 年之後的投資者日上概述的 CASM 低個位數增長在當前環境下是否仍然合理？

Yes. Thank you, Andrew, for your question. And yes, we've taken into consideration all of the current labor deals as we've contemplated our accruals here. So all of that has been baked into the guidance that we've shared with you. And in terms of the -- our investor -- the goal set -- our longer-term goal set we laid out with you at Investor Day, I think we're in line -- still in line with those longer-term goals. So clearly, we've had some choppiness here in terms of the rate that we're bringing back aircraft and employees and restoring the network, so that created some lumpiness in our cost trends. But we've done our very best here, at least looking ahead for 2023, to include all of those inflationary pressures and the guidance that we provided to you this morning.

是的。謝謝你，安德魯，你的問題。是的，當我們在這裡考慮我們的應計項目時，我們已經考慮了所有當前的勞動力交易。因此，所有這些都已納入我們與您分享的指導中。就 - 我們的投資者 - 目標設定 - 我們在投資者日與您制定的長期目標設定，我認為我們符合 - 仍然符合這些長期目標。很明顯，就我們帶回飛機和員工以及恢復網絡的速度而言，我們在這裡有些不穩定，因此我們的成本趨勢有些不穩定。但我們已經盡了最大努力，至少展望 2023 年，包括所有這些通脹壓力和我們今天早上提供給您的指導。

Andrew, this is Bob. Yes, I agree with Tammy. The goals stand. The -- if you're thinking that -- you saw we noted that deliveries as an example only, some of this delivery -- these delivery issues with Boeing could persist into '24, so you could still be, to some extent, [wringing] out some of the inefficiencies that are caused by some of that and just still folks entering training, going back to -- going out on the line. Some of that could persist early into '24, but no, absolutely, all the goals stand.

安德魯，這是鮑勃。是的，我同意塔米的觀點。目標站得住腳。 - 如果你這麼想 - 你看到我們注意到交付只是一個例子，其中一些交付 - 波音的這些交付問題可能會持續到 24 年，所以在某種程度上，你仍然可能是 [擰出] 一些由其中一些引起的低效率，只是人們仍在接受培訓，回到 - 上線。其中一些可能會持續到 24 年早期，但不，絕對，所有目標都成立。

Got it. Understood. Then second, Tammy, nearly $14 billion in cash on the balance sheet. With the move in rates, just -- how are you investing this cash? And how should we think about interest income going forward into 4Q? Because it looks like it's reaching a level where it offsets your interest expense. So any color there would be great.

知道了。明白了。其次是塔米，資產負債表上有近 140 億美元的現金。隨著利率的變化，您將如何投資這些現金？我們應該如何看待進入第四季度的利息收入？因為它看起來已經達到了可以抵消您的利息支出的水平。所以那裡的任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes. No, great question. You're absolutely right. We saw an improvement in our other expenses as we've seen rates improve here. So yes, no, we are investing that cash in obviously what we consider to be secure investments, but we do expect interest income to continue to outpace interest expense.

是的。不，很好的問題。你是絕對正確的。我們看到其他費用有所改善，因為我們看到這裡的費率有所改善。所以是的，不，我們顯然將這些現金投資於我們認為安全的投資，但我們確實預計利息收入將繼續超過利息支出。

Our next question comes from Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

I want to ask about the 4Q RASM acceleration. It's different than others, but I guess your third quarter deceleration was different than others. Is this just noise around breakage from Q3? Or is there some real underlying acceleration strengthening in the RASM trend Q4 versus Q3?

我想問一下關於 4Q RASM 加速的問題。它與其他人不同，但我想您的第三季度減速與其他人不同。這只是關於第三季度破損的噪音嗎？還是第四季度與第三季度的 RASM 趨勢有一些真正的潛在加速加強？

Scott, I'll just start for just a second, and then I'll let Andrew chime in here. There is a little noise between the quarters, but I think really it's just -- it's the continued strengthening in the underlying business. You've got leisure trends, which are really strong. And there's been all kinds of talk about what's going on there, the blending of leisure and business and everything. We are seeing leisure strength in what would have been typically off-peak period. As just an example only, in a typical period or a typical year, September would have been 2 to 3 load factor points under the summer just sequentially. And this year, we didn't see that. So there were about 2 to 3 points above that sequential trend. So the leisure traffic is really, really strong.

斯科特，我先開始一會兒，然後讓安德魯插話。兩個季度之間有一點噪音，但我認為這真的只是 - 這是基礎業務的持續加強。你有休閒趨勢，這真的很強大。關於那裡正在發生的事情，休閒和商務的融合以及一切，人們都在談論各種各樣的話題。我們在通常的非高峰期看到了休閒力量。僅作為示例，在典型時期或典型年份中，9 月將是夏季以下 2 到 3 個負載因子點。而今年，我們沒有看到這一點。因此，在該連續趨勢之上大約有 2 到 3 個點。所以休閒交通真的非常非常強大。

Coming off, we did have a dip in business in July and August, and then we got those trends reversed in September, and we expect to see strengthening in the fourth quarter from September's down 25%. So no, you're seeing -- it's more about the continued strength in leisure and business revenues in the fourth quarter than it is noise. Andrew?

開始後，我們在 7 月和 8 月確實出現了業務下滑，然後我們在 9 月扭轉了這些趨勢，我們預計第四季度將看到 9 月下降 25% 的情況有所加強。所以不，你看到了——更多的是第四季度休閒和商業收入的持續增長，而不是噪音。安德魯？

What I'd add is, yes, we had some company-specific drags in Q3 that have either gone away or attenuated. And at the same time, we saw some business travel weakness there during the summertime, which was unexpected. But then as we exit the summer, we saw business travel pick back up. And business travel, in general, has had a nice line -- trend line of restoration from post vaccines till today, but it's had some kind of ups and downs at unexpected times. And it took kind of a down, as Tammy said, during early Q3, and now it's kind of ticked back up. And so that, combined with some of the actions we took on a little bit less short haul that we send out, I think those things combined and showed us good both volume and yield acceleration from Q3 to Q4.

我要補充的是，是的，我們在第三季度遇到了一些特定於公司的拖累，這些拖累已經消失或減弱。與此同時，我們在夏季看到那裡的一些商務旅行疲軟，這是出乎意料的。但是當我們離開夏天時，我們看到商務旅行回升。總的來說，商務旅行有一條不錯的路線——從疫苗接種後到今天恢復的趨勢線，但在意想不到的時候它有一些起伏。正如 Tammy 所說，在第三季度初期，它有所下降，現在又有所回升。因此，結合我們採取的一些短期行動，我們發出了一些短途行動，我認為這些事情結合起來，向我們展示了從第三季度到第四季度的銷量和產量加速增長。

Okay. And then, Tammy, your comments about wanting to keep elevated cash, is that sort of a signal, don't expect much in terms of buyback dividend or don't expect much in terms of size of buyback dividend? I'm just -- if there's any sort of more color you want to share there?

好的。然後，Tammy，你關於希望保持高額現金的評論是一種信號，不要對回購股息有太多期望，或者對回購股息的規模沒有太多期望？我只是——如果你想在那里分享更多的顏色？

Yes, I covered that pretty well in my remarks. Obviously, we want to get back to our long-standing tradition of healthy shareholder returns. And we continue to be thoughtful in our capital allocation decisions. Clearly, we want to drive future growth and value. As you're aware, the PSP restrictions on dividends and share repurchases just expired at the end of the third quarter. And we'll -- as we look ahead to December, we'll discuss our 2023 plans with you in more detail, but I would just say that our capital allocation priorities really haven't changed. And as I said earlier, we have a long-standing dividend history, so reinstating a dividend continues to be a high priority for us. As we've been doing here this year, we've been looking for opportunities to reduce our debt, and we'll continue to look for opportunities that make sense for us there.

是的，我在我的發言中很好地涵蓋了這一點。顯然，我們希望回到我們長期以來的健康股東回報傳統。我們在資本分配決策中繼續深思熟慮。顯然，我們希望推動未來的增長和價值。如您所知，PSP 對股息和股票回購的限制在第三季度末剛剛到期。我們將——展望 12 月，我們將與您更詳細地討論我們的 2023 年計劃，但我只想說，我們的資本分配優先事項確實沒有改變。正如我之前所說，我們擁有悠久的股息歷史，因此恢復股息仍然是我們的重中之重。正如我們今年在這裡所做的那樣，我們一直在尋找減少債務的機會，我們將繼續在那裡尋找對我們有意義的機會。

And importantly, we continue to invest in our company and our people and are certainly focused on wrapping up our negotiation of all of our open labor contracts. And at the right time, it will -- we do intend to resume share repurchases as part of our shareholder return equation, just like we have done in the past. So we're just trying to balance all of that. And again, not to -- I think it is important to repeat, we just -- all of this assumes that the demand environment remains steady. And certainly, we haven't seen any step back here as we are talking to you today, but we'll want to continue to monitor the environment. But so far, so good on that front. And we'll just keep you apprised of our plans as we update them.

重要的是，我們繼續投資於我們的公司和我們的員工，並且肯定會專注於結束我們所有公開勞動合同的談判。在適當的時候，我們確實打算恢復股票回購，作為我們股東回報等式的一部分，就像我們過去所做的那樣。所以我們只是試圖平衡所有這些。再說一次，我認為重要的是重複一遍，我們只是 - 所有這些都假設需求環境保持穩定。當然，在我們今天與您交談時，我們還沒有看到任何退步，但我們希望繼續監控環境。但到目前為止，在這方面做得很好。我們會在更新計劃時讓您隨時了解我們的計劃。

Our next question comes from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jamie Baker。

So Tammy, a follow-up to Andrew's question and just so I understand the accrual mechanism. Hypothetically, if American and United ratified pilot contracts tomorrow with a 30% date of signing increase, I'm being deliberate here, you would upwardly adjust your accrual to reflect that? Or is it just a set it and forget it metric in your model?

所以 Tammy 是 Andrew 問題的後續，我只是了解應計機制。假設，如果美國和聯合航空明天批准飛行員合同，簽約日期增加 30%，我在這裡是故意的，你會向上調整你的應計以反映這一點嗎？或者它只是一個設置它而忘記它在你的模型中的度量？

I'm not going to speculate with you, Jamie, on any particular percentages, but we certainly take labor contracts and what market rates in -- as an input into our accruals. So we do monitor those and do our best job to estimate labor rates. But obviously, there are estimations involved with that. But it's not -- we don't -- we evaluate that every quarter and update as we feel is necessary, which is what we've been doing really starting back in the beginning of the second quarter.

Jamie，我不會和你一起推測任何特定的百分比，但我們當然會將勞動合同和市場利率作為我們應計項目的輸入。所以我們會監控這些，並儘我們最大的努力來估計勞動力價格。但顯然，這涉及到估計。但這不是 - 我們沒有 - 我們評估每個季度並在我們認為有必要時進行更新，這就是我們從第二季度開始時真正開始做的事情。

Right. Yes. I didn't mean to throw you off with the percentage. I was just being dramatic for the data, Tammy. But I did miss it. You say you do or you don't upgrade or update it every quarter to reflect what's going on in the market.

正確的。是的。我不是故意讓你失望的百分比。塔米，我只是對數據很戲劇化。但我確實錯過了。你說你會或你不會每季度升級或更新它以反映市場上正在發生的事情。

We do.

我們的確是。

You do. Okay. Perfect. And then second, when listing priorities, both in your prepared remarks and in the last question, you tend to emphasize labor deals, and then you bring up the topic of capital returns. Is that deliberate? Or put differently, should we view labor deals as one of the criteria you need to achieve before reinstating capital returns? Or am I reading just too much into it?

你做。好的。完美的。其次，在列出優先事項時，無論是在準備好的評論中還是在最後一個問題中，您都傾向於強調勞務交易，然後提出資本回報的話題。這是故意的嗎？或者換一種說法，我們是否應該將勞務交易視為您在恢復資本回報之前需要達到的標準之一？還是我讀得太多了？

Yes. Jamie, this is Bob. And again, we're going to be talking with our Board in the next month about just capital returns, and then we'll be sharing a lot more of this with you at our Investor Day in December. I don't know that you can be that prescriptive in terms of the exact order, but it's very important for us to get these labor deals done. I mean it's -- I think we have great employees. We want to reward them. They're highly paid today. We want them to be even more even better paid. You're starting to see deals by others. You're starting to see us get some TAs out there. So I think it's clear the high priority would be the dividend restoration.

是的。傑米，這是鮑勃。再一次，我們將在下個月與我們的董事會討論資本回報，然後我們將在 12 月的投資者日與您分享更多內容。我不知道你可以對確切的順序有那麼嚴格的規定，但完成這些勞務交易對我們來說非常重要。我的意思是——我認為我們有很棒的員工。我們想獎勵他們。他們今天的薪水很高。我們希望他們獲得更高的報酬。您開始看到其他人的交易。你開始看到我們有一些助教。所以我認為很明顯，當務之急是恢復股息。

And then as you've seen us, we've had opportunities to take -- to reduce debt, which we've done. But no, the -- getting our labor deals done is a very high priority for our people.

然後正如你所見，我們有機會採取 - 減少債務，我們已經做到了。但是，不，完成我們的勞務交易對我們的員工來說是一個非常重要的優先事項。

Okay. That's great. The bump, it sounds, obviously, like your answer as well, too. Sorry about that.

好的。那太棒了。顛簸，聽起來，顯然，也像你的答案一樣。對於那個很抱歉。

You may have a package on the porch.

你可能在門廊上有一個包裹。

Our next question comes from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Great to see the traction on the operational reliability there after, obviously, a little over a year of trying. So I just wanted to get a sense of how robust or fragile that is given -- like if we had a really bad winter storm or there was a huge surge in travel like for -- like 1 or 2 days during Thanksgiving or something, do you feel like there's enough slack in the system to be able to support some of that?

顯然，經過一年多的嘗試，很高興看到那裡的運行可靠性受到了牽引。所以我只是想了解一下它是多麼強大或脆弱——比如我們遇到了一場非常糟糕的冬季風暴，或者旅行激增——比如感恩節期間的一兩天之類的，做你覺得系統中有足夠的鬆弛度來支持其中的一些嗎？

Ravi, this is Bob. I want to just add one couple of topside things, then Mike could talk about the details. But I think there are several things in here that are just macro helping drive the operational improvement. Number one is getting staffed. I mean, when you're understaffed, it affects everything, you don't have margin to deal with any kind of issue, and we are so much better staffed today than we were even 3 to 4 months ago. Obviously, we have ways to go with our pilots. But really, what's happening there is we just aren't -- we are just under-flying our aircraft because of that.

拉維，這是鮑勃。我只想添加一些頂部的東西，然後邁克可以談談細節。但我認為這裡有幾件事只是宏觀有助於推動運營改進。第一是配備人員。我的意思是，當你人手不足時，它會影響一切，你沒有餘地來處理任何類型的問題，而且我們今天的人手比 3 到 4 個月前要好得多。顯然，我們有辦法與我們的飛行員合作。但實際上，那裡發生的事情是我們並沒有——正因為如此，我們只是在飛行我們的飛機。

The other big thing is we committed, I think, late in the spring, early in the summer, we committed to not republishing our schedules any longer because it's really hard on our employees, it's very hard on our customers. And then republishing just -- it's part of what adds operational difficulty. So post the summer, we are committed to not republishing schedules, and you've seen improvement operationally in September and a real improvement here in October. I think our OTP in October is low 80s and our NPS scores are in the 60s. And so yes, you're always going to have IROPs, but I think the base stability of the operation is much better for those reasons. But Mike?

另一件大事是我們承諾，我認為，在春末夏初，我們承諾不再重新發布我們的日程安排，因為這對我們的員工來說真的很難，對我們的客戶來說也很難。然後只是重新發布——這是增加操作難度的一部分。因此，在夏季之後，我們承諾不會重新發佈時間表，您已經看到 9 月份的運營有所改善，10 月份的情況確實有所改善。我認為我們 10 月份的 OTP 是 80 多歲，我們的 NPS 分數是 60 多歲。所以是的，你總是會有 IROP，但我認為由於這些原因，操作的基本穩定性要好得多。但是邁克?

Yes, Ravi, I don't have much to add there. But we've been very purposeful in trying to make sure that we match our resources to our schedules for the whole year. And we've had really good experience over the summer in difficult weather conditions with high load factors, all that kind of things that would be an operational challenge during the holidays, and we were -- we navigated through all of them very stably. So I feel like we're really set up to perform well over the holidays as we go into Thanksgiving and the Christmas season.

是的，拉維，我沒有太多要補充的。但我們一直在努力確保我們的資源與全年的日程安排相匹配。我們在整個夏天在惡劣的天氣條件下和高負載率的情況下獲得了非常好的經驗，所有這些在假期期間都會成為運營挑戰的事情，我們 - 我們非常穩定地通過了所有這些事情。所以我覺得當我們進入感恩節和聖誕節時，我們真的準備好在假期裡表現得很好。

Very encouraging. And maybe just a follow-up. I apologize if I missed this, but you guys introduced a new fare class structure a few months ago. What's the update of that? What's the take rate like? And how much of a boost could that be to TRASM? How much are we seeing already? And how much could it be in '23?

非常鼓舞人心。也許只是後續行動。如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但你們幾個月前推出了一種新的票價等級結構。這有什麼更新？錄取率如何？這對 TRASM 有多大的推動作用？我們已經看到了多少？ 23 年能有多少？

It's Andrew. The new fare product, Wanna Get Away Plus, is one we talked about at Investor Day last year, and we rolled out in Q2. It was part of the bundle of initiatives we said next year would give us about between $1 billion and $1.5 billion of EBIT. So we didn't break out the line item for that, nor do we break out the take rate. What I have said and will say again is that the large majority of our customers will still buy the anchor, Wanna Get Away, so this allows us to have more bite-sized sell-ups for additional features that customers will only pay for and don't have a huge cost of delivery for us. So some intangible costs, but don't have a big cost for delivery.

是安德魯。新票價產品 Wanna Get Away Plus 是我們去年在投資者日討論的產品，我們在第二季度推出。這是我們說明年將給我們帶來約 10 億至 15 億美元息稅前利潤的一攬子計劃的一部分。因此，我們沒有為此細分訂單項，也沒有細分採取率。我已經說過並將再次說的是，我們的絕大多數客戶仍然會購買主播，Wanna Get Away，因此這使我們能夠對額外的功能進行更多的銷售，客戶只會為這些功能付費和不使用對我們來說沒有巨大的交付成本。所以一些無形成本，但沒有很大的交付成本。

And we have a cross-functional team whose job it is, is to take that product, which was delivered exceptionally well from a technical perspective, and move it to our inside target take rate for the customers. They're making great progress on that. They've already done a different -- taking different actions on merchandising and on price and how they communicate to customers. And so we are seeing really good progress. It's on its track to hit the business case, and we couldn't be happy with it.

我們有一個跨職能團隊，他們的工作是採用從技術角度來看交付得非常好的產品，並將其轉移到我們對客戶的內部目標接受率。他們在這方面取得了很大進展。他們已經採取了不同的做法——在商品推銷和價格以及與客戶溝通的方式上採取了不同的行動。所以我們看到了非常好的進展。它正在實現商業案例，我們對此並不滿意。

Our next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Andrew, since this is your last call on commercial, I wanted to ask you a revenue question. So just longer term, how do you think about the stickiness of yields in the context of an inflationary environment? Do you think people should still be indexing their thinking to 2019? Or has the world changed? And how much of the yield environment would you attribute to capacity deficiency? How are you thinking about the new normal here?

安德魯，因為這是你最後一次打廣告，我想問你一個收入問題。所以從長遠來看，您如何看待通脹環境下收益率的粘性？你認為人們是否仍應將他們的想法索引到 2019 年？還是世界變了？您將多少產量環境歸因於產能不足？您如何看待這裡的新常態？

Well, I appreciate the philosophical question on my last revenue call. But I think entire 2019 comps, so hopefully, next year, we'll stop talking about 2019. You do have a supply-demand mismatch right now in the industry. And you have a bounce-back from this recession that was stronger than any other recession that kind of I recall. And certainly, going back maybe one of the '80s, early '80s, the oldest recessions had (inaudible) like this, but it was extraordinary. And so it's unusual you have demand quickly outstripping supply like this. So it's going to take a while, I think, for the industry to have supply come back up because whether you have economic softness for next quarter, next year, whatever, it will keep chugging along and generating more demand.

好吧，我很欣賞我上次電話會議上的哲學問題。但我認為整個 2019 年的比賽，所以希望明年，我們將停止談論 2019 年。你現在在行業中確實存在供需不匹配的問題。而且你從這次衰退中反彈，這比我記得的任何其他衰退都要強。當然，回溯到 80 年代，80 年代初，最古老的經濟衰退（聽不清）就是這樣，但它非同尋常。因此，像這樣需求迅速超過供應是不尋常的。因此，我認為，該行業需要一段時間才能恢復供應，因為無論下一季度，明年，無論經濟疲軟，它都會繼續增長並產生更多需求。

And given that some airlines are having trouble getting pilots and the airframers are having trouble kind of meeting their target delivery dates, it's going to -- supply is going to be hard to come by at an industry level for a couple of years now. So I think we have a couple of years where demand and supply may not be as aligned as it was pre-pandemic, which I think will have these yield tailwinds for a while. So that's about as far as I think one can reasonably see in this industry, but definitely a couple of years of supply headwinds and demand tailwinds.

鑑於一些航空公司在招募飛行員方面遇到了困難，而機身製造商在滿足其目標交付日期方面也遇到了困難，這將是——在行業層面，未來幾年供應將很難獲得。因此，我認為我們有幾年的供需可能不像大流行前那樣一致，我認為這將在一段時間內產生這些收益順風。所以這大約是我認為在這個行業可以合理地看到的，但絕對是幾年的供應逆風和需求順風。

Appreciate those thoughts. And then maybe for Bob or whoever wants it, Southwest is a margin-focused company, in our opinion. But in any given year, you might have different priorities. So what is your guiding light for 2023 growth? Are you solving for margin expansion next year? Or has this COVID recovery been so unique that the goal is sort of capacity restoration and we'll worry about margin expansion beyond this 2023 transition year?

欣賞這些想法。然後也許對於鮑勃或任何想要它的人來說，西南航空是一家以利潤為中心的公司，在我們看來。但在任何一年，您可能有不同的優先事項。那麼，您對 2023 年增長的指路明燈是什麼？您是否正在解決明年的利潤率擴張問題？還是這種 COVID 復甦是如此獨特，以至於目標是恢復產能，我們會擔心 2023 年過渡年之後的利潤率擴張？

Duane, I think they all hang together. So we -- I mean we've got several goals. We need to continue to restore our ops reliability. We've got to get staff, that's really pilots, next year so that we can fly our whole fleet. That enables the ability to restore the network. In other words, get all the stuff that we flew pre-pandemic back into the network. We'll be sort of 90% restored this summer. We think 100% fully restored by the end of next year 2023.

杜安，我想他們都在一起。所以我們——我的意思是我們有幾個目標。我們需要繼續恢復我們的運營可靠性。明年我們必須招募人員，這真的是飛行員，這樣我們就可以駕駛我們的整個機隊。這使得能夠恢復網絡。換句話說，讓我們在大流行前飛回網絡的所有東西。今年夏天我們將恢復 90%。我們認為到明年 2023 年底將 100% 完全恢復。

Why that's important is because that capacity is going back into markets that we were in, so they're going into markets that we are very strong in, we have a strong customer base. So it comes on at much less risk than opening a new market. So that ties into the revenue performance in the margin discussion because it helps. The -- but no, the goal -- on top of those goals in 2023, the goal is to grow revenues, to grow profits, to grow margins and to grow returns.

為什麼這很重要，因為這種能力正在回到我們所在的市場，所以他們正在進入我們非常強大的市場，我們擁有強大的客戶群。因此，與開闢新市場相比，它的風險要小得多。因此，這與利潤討論中的收入表現有關，因為它有幫助。除了 2023 年的這些目標之外，目標——但不是，目標是增加收入、增加利潤、增加利潤和增加回報。

Our next question comes from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

You talked a fair bit about just training in general, and it seems like that's one of your biggest problems from a pilot standpoint. I'm just -- is there anything you can do to bolster the throughput there? Like I feel like this has been an issue for a while, and I'm just surprised that it hasn't been fixed, but like there hasn't been a better solution in the near term that could drive some efficiencies there.

你談到了一般的訓練，從飛行員的角度來看，這似乎是你最大的問題之一。我只是 - 你能做些什麼來提高那裡的吞吐量嗎？就像我覺得這個問題已經有一段時間了，我只是對它沒有得到修復感到驚訝，但就像在短期內沒有更好的解決方案可以在那裡提高一些效率一樣。

Yes. Conor, I just want to clear up, sometimes it's confusing between hiring and training. We were having not -- we're having -- I just want to point this out, we're not having any trouble hiring pilots. We're getting all the pilots, good, great pilots that we need. We're overbooking classes as an example. That's different than getting everybody through the training process. There's just a max capacity. We have a lot of simulators, like we have 23...

是的。康納，我只是想澄清一下，有時招聘和培訓之間存在混淆。我們沒有——我們有——我只是想指出這一點，我們在招聘飛行員方面沒有任何問題。我們正在招募我們需要的所有優秀、優秀的飛行員。我們以超額預訂課程為例。這與讓每個人都完成培訓過程不同。只有最大容量。我們有很多模擬器，比如我們有 23 個......

26.

26.

26. We're adding 3 here. So we've got a lot of simulators, but the training pipeline is full. You -- Andrew talking about the whole industry being constrained. I think that's really what's going on in the industry is this constraint to the -- to some extent, hiring for some carriers, but really the training processes. So if you ask about what can you do about it, it's really difficult because the lead time on a simulator is years, as an example. So by the time you get that in, you don't need it any longer in terms of managing this bubble.

26. 我們在這裡添加 3。所以我們有很多模擬器，但訓練管道已經滿了。你——安德魯談到整個行業受到限制。我認為這確實是該行業正在發生的事情是這種限制 - 在某種程度上，為一些運營商招聘，但實際上是培訓過程。所以如果你問你能做些什麼，這真的很困難，因為模擬器的交付時間是幾年，例如。所以當你得到它時，就管理這個泡沫而言，你不再需要它了。

So -- but the main point is the hiring is going great. The training is full. Our plan this year was to hire 1,200 pilots, and we will hit that. The plan next year is to hire 2,100 pilots, and we will hit that. And then the plan is to have sort of the pilots catch the aircraft late next year so that we're flying the whole fleet, and that will be our plan.

所以——但重點是招聘進展順利。培訓是滿的。我們今年的計劃是僱傭 1200 名飛行員，我們會實現這一目標。明年的計劃是僱傭 2,100 名飛行員，我們會實現這一目標。然後計劃是讓飛行員在明年晚些時候趕上飛機，這樣我們就可以駕駛整個機隊，這將是我們的計劃。

Mike, do you want to add anything?

邁克，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes, I'll just jump in, Conor. So yes, our training throughput, we're at maximum training throughput with all of the infrastructure that we have. So we've got, I think, 26 bays. We'll have 26 simulators in there at the beginning of the year. We're fully staffed on flight instructors to go do that. We've got enough check airmen to go do that. So we're just hiring a lot of new pilots. We've got a lot of captain upgrades. And we have the normal recurrent training. So we'll be at maximum training capacity in 2023, and then it falls off, as Bob mentioned, in 2024 and beyond there. So we're not -- we're putting as many pilots through our system as we can.

是的，我會直接加入，康納。所以是的，我們的培訓吞吐量，我們擁有的所有基礎設施都處於最大的培訓吞吐量。所以我們有，我想，26個托架。今年年初，我們將在那里安裝 26 個模擬器。我們配備了充分的飛行教官來做這件事。我們有足夠的檢查飛行員去做這件事。所以我們只是在招聘很多新飛行員。我們有很多船長升級。我們有正常的複訓。因此，我們將在 2023 年達到最大培訓能力，然後正如鮑勃所說，在 2024 年及以後它會下降。所以我們不是——我們正在盡可能多地讓飛行員通過我們的系統。

And I have to compliment Mike and Tammy on this. In the middle of the pandemic, where people are focused on day-to-day, they made the decision to expand our training facility by putting in more bays, to order simulators when no one else is doing either. So when we came out, we actually have more training capacity now than we had pre-pandemic by quite a bit. And so even though we're at capacity, this capacity was added during the pandemic when everyone else was thinking about today, they were thinking about tomorrow.

我必須在這點上表揚 Mike 和 Tammy。在大流行期間，人們專注於日常工作，他們決定通過增加更多的托架來擴大我們的培訓設施，在沒有其他人做的時候訂購模擬器。所以當我們出來的時候，我們現在的訓練能力實際上比大流行前要多很多。因此，即使我們有能力，但這種能力是在大流行期間增加的，當時其他人都在考慮今天，他們在考慮明天。

I appreciate that detail. And just -- sorry, I'd like to piggyback on Duane's margin question. But -- so you still have a fair bit of inefficiencies in the '23 and some of your hedge benefits probably roll off. So we're kind of banking on revenue being really strong. And I'm not really asking about forward pricing, but is there any other levers out there outside of revenue that could drive sustained profits higher next year that just people aren't thinking about? I appreciate it.

我很欣賞這個細節。只是——抱歉，我想順便提一下 Duane 的保證金問題。但是 - 所以你在 23 年仍然有相當低的效率，你的一些對沖收益可能會下降。所以我們有點寄希望於收入非常強勁。而且我並不是真的在問遠期定價，但除了收入之外，還有沒有其他槓桿可以推動明年的持續利潤更高，而這是人們沒有考慮的？我很感激。

Well, you've got again strong revenue performance, and that's for a number of reasons. The other thing, you've got our initiatives coming fully online, as Andrew pointed out. So the contribution is sort of 1 to 1.5 EBITDA in 2023, and we've been right on track, hitting the contributions that we told you about in terms of our revenue initiatives. We have work to do on the cost front. Some of our cost pressures are what everybody is seeing, their inflation, in particular, wage inflation, some other categories. Another piece of that are inefficiencies that again, I would argue, almost everybody is seeing. They're just folks in training, not flying all your fleet, just not back to the efficiency levels that you were pre-pandemic. And so we've got an opportunity to work on -- we talked to you about this, especially in the operations area, is tools, processes, ways to take cost out of our -- of the operation, in particular, and we'll be sharing a lot of that at Investor Day here in December.

好吧，您再次獲得了強勁的收入表現，這有很多原因。另一件事是，正如 Andrew 指出的那樣，我們的計劃已經完全上線。因此，2023 年的貢獻是 1 到 1.5 的 EBITDA，我們一直走在正軌上，在收入計劃方面達到了我們告訴你的貢獻。我們在成本方面還有工作要做。我們的一些成本壓力是每個人都看到的，他們的通貨膨脹，特別是工資通貨膨脹，以及其他一些類別。另一部分是效率低下，我認為，幾乎每個人都看到了。他們只是訓練中的人，而不是駕駛你所有的機隊，只是沒有恢復到大流行前的效率水平。因此，我們有機會開展工作——我們與您討論過這個問題，特別是在運營領域，是工具、流程、降低我們運營成本的方法，特別是，我們將在 12 月的投資者日分享很多內容。

Our next question comes from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Can I ask on the managed business revenue? Is the decline that you saw from June, is that a function of pricing? Or is that volumes as well? Because I know you gave a revenue kind of outlook here. And I'm guessing pricing has been softer just generally from kind of the earlier in the summer.

我可以詢問託管業務收入嗎？您從 6 月開始看到的下降是定價的函數嗎？或者這也是體積？因為我知道你在這裡給出了一種收入前景。而且我猜價格通常比夏季早些時候的價格要低一些。

Yes. Savi, it's Andrew. We did see coming out from June to July and August, both some volume and yield softness in managed business, which then turned around in September and in October. And so it was clearly a different behavior. As I mentioned before, there's been kind of the start-stop, start-stop of managed business from kind of post-vaccine rollout. And it's hard to get -- be super clear on exactly the drivers are, but we do hear lots of anecdotes over the summer of companies reinstating PTO caps. Therefore, people had to take PTO during the summer. Also, many companies put in place kind of hybrid work, but then had remote July, where you could kind of work remotely for the month of July. And therefore, you don't travel for business reasons.

是的。薩維，是安德魯。我們確實看到，從 6 月到 7 月和 8 月，託管業務的數量和收益率都出現疲軟，然後在 9 月和 10 月出現轉機。所以這顯然是一種不同的行為。正如我之前提到的，從疫苗推出後的那種開始，託管業務的開始停止，開始停止。而且很難得到 - 非常清楚驅動程序到底是什麼，但我們確實聽到了很多關於公司恢復 PTO 上限的軼事。因此，人們不得不在夏天服用 PTO。此外，許多公司實施了混合工作，但隨後有遠程 7 月，您可以在 7 月份遠程工作。因此，您不會出於商務原因出差。

So lots of these anecdotes fit with a summer slowdown in travel, but then resume post Labor Day with a nice tick-up post Labor Day, and that trend continued to accelerate from September into October. So not fussing too much about why, but it was clear this is what happened, and both volume and fare are improving now for managed business as we exit the summer.

因此，許多這些軼事都與夏季旅行放緩相吻合，但隨後在勞動節後恢復，勞動節後出現了不錯的回升，並且從 9 月到 10 月，這種趨勢繼續加速。所以不要對為什麼大驚小怪，但很明顯這就是發生的事情，隨著我們退出夏季，託管業務的數量和票價現在都在改善。

That's helpful. And if I might, I know that there's a lot of uncertainty around delivery, but I'm wondering if you could put a guardrail around 2023 capacity plans or just even a guardrail around maybe what you could see in terms -- what you think is realistic in terms of kind of fleet delivery from a low end and a high end?

這很有幫助。如果可以的話，我知道交付存在很多不確定性，但我想知道您是否可以圍繞 2023 年產能計劃設置護欄，或者甚至只是圍繞您可以看到的內容設置護欄 - 您認為是就低端和高端的車隊交付而言是否現實？

I think what Bob said earlier that we're pilot-constrained until the end of next year. So a lot of what we're doing for the bulk of next year is really paced by our pilot training capacity, not by Boeing deliveries. Obviously, these are much more efficient aircraft we got to fly, but it's not the delivery rate that's really constraining 2023 for the bulk of the year.

我認為 Bob 之前所說的，我們在明年年底之前都會受到試點限制。因此，我們明年大部分時間所做的很多事情都是由我們的飛行員培訓能力決定的，而不是波音公司的交付。顯然，這些是我們必須駕駛的效率更高的飛機，但在今年大部分時間裡，真正限制 2023 年的並不是交付率。

And I think of -- you've also got -- this is just the way to think about the capacity that we've given you. So we've given you the 10% in the first quarter and the 14% in the second quarter, probably gives you some guidance out of -- we're not ready to offer 2023 full year capacity, but gives you some way to maybe think about that. Another just -- it wasn't exactly your question, but just to tie to that, when you think about the capacity for the first half of the year, the vast majority of that is just carryover from capacity that was implemented in 2022. I think, Andrew, it's upwards of 90%.

我認為——你也有——這只是思考我們賦予你的能力的方式。所以我們已經給了你第一季度的 10% 和第二季度的 14%，可能會給你一些指導——我們還沒有準備好提供 2023 年全年的產能，但給了你一些可能的方法考慮一下。另一個只是 - 這不完全是您的問題，但只是與此相關，當您考慮今年上半年的產能時，其中絕大多數只是 2022 年實施的產能的結轉。我想想，安德魯，它超過了 90%。

Yes, just around 90%.

是的，只有大約 90%。

So you got about 90% of that capacity is just stuff that's carried over from things that were added back as we restore the network in 2022, if that helps. The -- I agree with Andrew on the delivery front. I don't -- we don't see a scenario right now where the Boeing deliveries are reduced to the point where somehow that limits our ability to put into place the capacity that we want because, again, we're pilot-constrained in all likelihood through the end of the year.

所以你得到的大約 90% 的容量只是從我們在 2022 年恢復網絡時添加回來的東西中結轉的東西，如果有幫助的話。 - 我同意 Andrew 在交付方面的觀點。我不 - 我們現在看不到波音的交付量減少到某種程度，以某種方式限制我們實現我們想要的能力的程度，因為我們再次受到飛行員的限制很可能到年底。

So we -- again, our intent is we publish schedules. Our intent -- through the middle of the summer, our intent is to fly those. I don't think those will be affected by any delivery issues. And I do expect to, like all companies, as the year moves along next year, I don't want to speak for Boeing, but as you continue to work on supply chain, whether that's engine or parts or whatever, I would assume they'll begin to stabilize those deliveries. And so no, I don't think it will have an impact on 2023.

所以我們 - 再次，我們的意圖是我們發佈時間表。我們的意圖——通過仲夏，我們的意圖是飛行那些。我認為這些不會受到任何交付問題的影響。而且我確實希望，像所有公司一樣，隨著明年的到來，我不想為波音說話，但是當你繼續在供應鏈上工作時，無論是發動機還是零件還是其他什麼，我會假設他們將開始穩定這些交付。所以不，我認為它不會對 2023 年產生影響。

And our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

I guess can we stay on this topic of being constrained by pilots and network recovery? Because I think if we're reading your op stats correctly, you actually have a lower average stage length now than you did in the past. So I get it, maybe the composition of the city pairs is not the same as the past, but it would seem some of that long-haul flying that was challenging you in the past maybe is coming out of the mix here. So can you just help us understand like where are you scaled from a pilot perspective today? If you could have everyone trained, like how large of a fleet could you fly? And how much more could you scale capacity from here?

我想我們可以繼續討論受飛行員和網絡恢復限制的話題嗎？因為我認為，如果我們正確地讀取了您的操作統計數據，那麼您現在的平均階段長度實際上比過去要短。所以我明白了，也許城市對的構成與過去不一樣，但過去那些挑戰你的長途飛行似乎正在從這裡出來。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解您今天從試點的角度在哪裡進行了擴展？如果你能讓每個人都受過訓練，比如你能飛多大的艦隊？您還能從這裡擴展多少容量？

I think it's really -- it's not a -- we've changed the network is the driver. It's we have -- we picked an order in which we have restored capacity. And so we chose to restore some of the short-haul earlier this year, a little bit of a bet on business recovery, a lot of bet of that helps the operational reliability, which is what we're seeing here in the last few months, which is different than we've got a different network post pandemic. And so I think it's really the order of restoration.

我認為這真的 - 這不是 - 我們改變了網絡是驅動程序。我們有——我們選擇了一個恢復產能的訂單。所以我們選擇在今年早些時候恢復一些短途航線，對業務復甦進行一些賭注，其中很多賭注有助於運營可靠性，這就是我們在過去幾個月看到的情況，這與我們在大流行後擁有不同的網絡不同。所以我認為這真的是恢復的順序。

And I'm not sure this is exactly answering your question. But if we could fly all of our aircraft, that is we had enough pilots to fly the aircraft on property, we would be roughly 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% higher percentage of capacity or ASMs this year right now. That's about how much more we could fly. It's really more that's the factor than it is the mix of the flying short-haul, medium-haul, long-haul.

而且我不確定這是否完全回答了您的問題。但是，如果我們可以駕駛所有的飛機，也就是說，我們有足夠的飛行員來駕駛這架飛機，那麼今年我們的運力或 ASM 的百分比將大約提高 5%、6%、7%、8%。那就是我們可以飛多少。這真的比飛行短途、中途、長途的混合更重要。

But Andrew, you want to add anything?

但是安德魯，你想補充什麼嗎？

That's true. We -- from last summer through last winter, we had a much longer stage length because we had fewer short-haul. That did hurt, we determined, the network stability. A bad day can become a very bad day. And so to hedge against that, we restored the short-haul sooner than we would have otherwise paced at based on demand in starting Q2 of this year, and that has proven a robust decision because when we've had bad days, it was a lot of bad days of the summer, we operated just fine, got through them, in contrast with some of our competitors.

確實如此。我們——從去年夏天到去年冬天，我們的賽段長度要長得多，因為我們的短途航線更少。我們確定，這確實損害了網絡穩定性。糟糕的一天可能會變成非常糟糕的一天。因此，為了對沖這一點，我們在今年第二季度開始時根據需求提前恢復了短途航線，這已證明是一個穩健的決定，因為當我們遇到糟糕的日子時，這是一個夏天有很多糟糕的日子，與我們的一些競爭對手相比，我們運作得很好，度過了難關。

Now that does lead to a kind of imbalanced network, where the stage length is much shorter, as you pointed out. And so when we talk about restoration, we're essentially talking about adding a longer-haul -- medium- to longer-haul departures from now through the end of next year to fully restore the network. It will bring it back in balance. But while I won't say we'll have every city pair has the same number of frequency had before, we will -- every city will have a kind of pre-pandemic network as far as what it's serving customers who want to fly for business, visiting from the relatives and holidays. So I think you'll see a kind of regular Southwest network stage length and composition by the end of next year.

正如您所指出的，這確實導致了一種不平衡的網絡，其中階段長度要短得多。因此，當我們談論恢復時，我們實質上是在談論從現在到明年年底增加長途——中長途班次，以完全恢復網絡。它會讓它恢復平衡。但是，雖然我不會說我們會讓每個城市對都擁有與以前相同的頻率，但我們會——每個城市都會有一個大流行前的網絡，只要它為想要飛往的客戶提供服務出差、探親、節假日。所以我認為到明年年底你會看到一種常規的西南網絡舞台長度和組成。

Okay. I appreciate the response. And just maybe a quick follow-up for Tammy. So the outlook for improved full year CASM-X in '23, I guess that's really not that contingent on Boeing deliveries then, right? It sounds like it's more of the pilot training issue is the biggest constraint?

好的。我很欣賞你的回應。也許只是對 Tammy 的快速跟進。因此，23 年 CASM-X 全年改進的前景，我想那真的不取決於波音的交付，對吧？聽起來這更像是飛行員培訓問題是最大的限制？

That -- yes, I think that is a fair assessment and how our ability to bring on that capacity. So yes, I would agree with that.

那 - 是的，我認為這是一個公平的評估，以及我們如何發揮這種能力。所以是的，我同意這一點。

And our next question comes from Chris Stathoulopoulos from SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Chris Stathoulopoulos。

I was wondering if you could give some color on how your strategy in Hawaii has evolved now over the last 3 or so years. And you mentioned in your prepared remarks about incentivizing travelers to try Southwest. And I realized that fare special is in place through the end of the year. But should we think that, that level of pricing, which is clearly unsustainable, could persist, perhaps not at that absolute level? But as you talk about incentivizing or making travelers aware of Southwest that, that level of pricing could persist into next year?

我想知道您是否可以說明您在夏威夷的戰略在過去 3 年左右的發展歷程中的變化。您在準備好的評論中提到了鼓勵旅客嘗試西南航空。我意識到特價機票到年底都會到位。但我們是否應該認為，這種明顯不可持續的定價水平可能會持續下去，也許不會保持在那個絕對水平上？但是當你談到激勵或讓旅行者意識到西南航空時，這種定價水平可能會持續到明年？

It's Andrew. I'll start off and then Bob can correct me where he needs to. Obviously, we won't talk about forward pricing, but what I will say is the current pricing is we have a special in effect since really the end of summer, where we have a low price, and we guarantee that low price for customers. This is not all uncommon. You look back over Southwest history, and we've done this many, many times. So it's not unusual that we do this to incent trial. Kind of work backwards here, we -- Bob and I were there this past summer, met with a lot of customers, a lot of stakeholders. And we saw they were aware of Southwest, they knew us, they didn't know about us too much. They had not tried us as much. And so to kind of incent that trial, we had this low fare and we had it available all the time just to make it really easy for people to try us, and we've seen a kind of explosive growth and use by the (inaudible), the local customer to fly us for travel between islands.

是安德魯。我將開始，然後 Bob 可以在他需要的地方糾正我。顯然，我們不會談論遠期定價，但我要說的是當前定價是我們從夏末開始特別有效，我們有低價，我們保證為客戶提供低價。這並不少見。你回顧西南地區的歷史，我們已經做過很多很多次了。所以我們這樣做是為了激勵審判並不罕見。有點倒過來的工作，我們——Bob 和我去年夏天在那裡，會見了很多客戶，很多利益相關者。我們看到他們了解西南航空，他們了解我們，但對我們了解不多。他們沒有嘗試過我們那麼多。因此，為了鼓勵這種試驗，我們提供了這麼低的票價，而且我們一直提供它只是為了讓人們很容易嘗試我們，我們已經看到了一種爆炸性的增長和使用（聽不清)，當地客戶乘坐我們飛機在島嶼之間旅行。

The travel between the islands is much reduced from what it was before. That's because the Mainland travel from vacationers has come back to its pre-pandemic levels, but it had not come back interisland. In general, when we were visiting people, we're not traveling around as much as they used to back before it was a monopoly. And so we wanted to get people back in the habit of traveling to neighbor island, to go to the family, to go to football games, for all the reasons, one might in the Mainland getting your car and drive. And so it was really about getting people used to a different behavior, which is you can count on low prices between the islands. And once you kind of get them back to knowing that they can adjust how they're going to allocate their budget, what they're going to do on the weekends, we think that ultimately ends up to having a more robust interisland market compared to before when it was characterized by high prices of monopoly service. And so we think this is a pathway on to that.

與以前相比，島嶼之間的旅行大大減少了。那是因為度假者的大陸旅行已經恢復到大流行前的水平，但並沒有回到島際。一般來說，當我們拜訪人們時，我們不會像他們過去那樣在壟斷之前到處旅行。所以我們想讓人們重新養成去鄰島旅行的習慣，去看家人，去看足球比賽，出於各種原因，一個人可能會在大陸得到你的車和開車。所以這真的是為了讓人們習慣不同的行為，你可以指望島嶼之間的低價。一旦你讓他們重新知道他們可以調整他們將如何分配他們的預算，他們將在周末做什麼，我們認為最終會擁有一個更強大的島際市場。以前它的特點是壟斷服務價格高。因此，我們認為這是實現這一目標的途徑。

Now our schedule had also, at the same time, been changed. Our entry into Hawaii, we view as a franchise, and that franchise includes Mainland flying as well as our neighbor island flying, and we kind of dimensionalize that based on customer feedback. So we went out to Hawaii well before we start flying. And we heard from people, yes, it's great you're going to fly from the Mainland Southwest, but can you please give us interisland travel. We had all kinds of sad stories of not being able to visit friends and relatives.

現在我們的日程安排也同時發生了變化。我們進入夏威夷，我們將其視為特許經營權，該特許經營權包括大陸飛行以及我們鄰近的島嶼飛行，我們會根據客戶反饋對其進行維度化。所以我們在開始飛行之前就去了夏威夷。我們從人們那裡聽說，是的，你要從西南大陸飛來真是太好了，但你能不能給我們提供島際旅行。我們有各種無法探望親友的悲傷故事。

And so we came and we put that back into our business plan. We figured out a good network that will provide good robust reliability and customer options to have some very short Mainland -- very short interisland flying and some long-haul Mainland flying, and the combination looks good on paper to us. We've kind of adjusted that based on feedback. We heard from a lot of the local customers, please fly to Vegas. So we added Vegas to it. They said, hey, Southwest, it's great you're offering options, but I need more -- a better schedule so I can get back home because if you've ever been to Maui, they have very nice hotels, but they're quite expensive.

所以我們來了，我們把它放回到我們的商業計劃中。我們找到了一個很好的網絡，可以提供良好的可靠性和客戶選擇，讓他們擁有一些非常短的大陸——非常短的島間飛行和一些長途大陸飛行，這種組合對我們來說在紙面上看起來不錯。我們已經根據反饋進行了調整。我們聽到很多當地客戶的消息，請飛往維加斯。所以我們將維加斯加入其中。他們說，嘿，西南航空，你提供的選擇很棒，但我需要更多——更好的日程安排，這樣我才能回家，因為如果你去過毛伊島，他們有非常不錯的酒店，但他們是相當昂貴。

So if you're a business traveler, you don't stay over, you come back home. And so you look at that and you think of business travelers as your white collar workforce, which is true in Hawaii, but they also have a blue-collar workforce that travels for business, construction workers, dock workers, trades people. And so they need to be able to get back home each night when they go to neighbor island to serve their customers. So that led us to having a bit more of a schedule offering that kind of span the day so people are going to have that round trip ability.

因此，如果您是商務旅行者，請不要留下來，而是回到家中。所以你看這個，你認為商務旅行者是你的白領勞動力，這在夏威夷是正確的，但他們也有一個藍領勞動力，他們為商務、建築工人、碼頭工人、貿易人員旅行。因此，當他們每晚去鄰島為客戶服務時，他們需要能夠回家。所以這導致我們有更多的時間表來提供那種跨度的一天，這樣人們就會有這種往返能力。

And because we had started off a little bit more of a looser schedule in Hawaii because it was very new to us to fly such a long stage length, we're able to kind of tighten up our scheduling parameters and really didn't use a whole bunch more new aircraft and new crew time because both are there and just not as productive. So we're able to kind of increase that offering without a lot of cost to us. So this all fits down to, I think, a franchise that's maturing. We love it, and I think our product fits with the local customer, and they're responding in droves by our introductory offer.

而且因為我們在夏威夷開始的賽程稍微寬鬆一點，因為飛行這麼長的賽段對我們來說是非常新的，我們能夠收緊我們的日程安排參數並且真的沒有使用更多的新飛機和新的機組人員時間，因為兩者都在那裡，只是效率不高。因此，我們能夠在不花費太多成本的情況下增加該產品。所以這一切都歸結為，我認為，一個正在成熟的特許經營權。我們喜歡它，而且我認為我們的產品適合當地客戶，他們對我們的介紹性報價做出了成群結隊的回應。

Yes. I would just say, Andrew and I had the pleasure of spending a week in Hawaii in May, and it was -- it's clear that people love us, but they don't all know us. And this gives us a chance to introduce ourselves. It was also really clear a much better interisland schedule was something they really wanted and needed. And the last thing I would just say, I've been with Southwest for 34 years, and we've gone in -- in my time here, we've gone into lots and lots of new markets, new cities and has grown some of those to what today are what we would call mega stations. And using introductory pricing to really introduce ourselves to the market and drive traffic, it's a tactic that we have used very successfully here for years and years and years. And this is very similar.

是的。我只想說，安德魯和我有幸在五月份在夏威夷度過了一周，而且很明顯人們愛我們，但他們並不都認識我們。這給了我們一個自我介紹的機會。也很明顯，他們真正想要和需要一個更好的島際時間表。我要說的最後一件事是，我在西南航空工作了 34 年，我們已經進入了——在我在這裡的時間裡，我們已經進入了許多新市場、新城市，並且已經發展了一些今天我們稱之為大型車站的那些。並且使用介紹性定價來真正向市場介紹自己並吸引流量，這是我們多年來一直非常成功地使用的一種策略。這非常相似。

Okay. And my follow-up. So if we look at U.S. domestic capacity in the first half of next year, narrow-bodies. This is for the U.S. as a whole now. Narrow-bodies are up low double digits. Wide-bodies up a few points. RJs down, obviously not completely relevant to you. But as we think about the capacity plans that you outlined for the first half, but also the yield environment for next year, is the base-case scenario that this mix of equipment for U.S. domestic travel as a whole normalizes or perhaps just in an easier way that these narrow- and wide-bodies return to their more natural markets?

好的。還有我的後續。因此，如果我們看一下美國明年上半年的國內產能，那就是窄體機。這是針對整個美國的。窄體產品的價格低至兩位數。寬體漲了幾分。 RJs down，顯然與你不完全相關。但是，當我們考慮到您為上半年概述的產能計劃以及明年的收益環境時，美國國內旅行的這種設備組合作為一個整體正常化，或者可能只是在更容易的情況下，是基本情況。這些窄體和寬體是如何回到更自然的市場的？

I really -- I can't speak to the industry and what their plans are. I think if you look ahead it -- especially with aircraft, if you look ahead at the sort of the intermediate term in terms of capacity, as Andrew noted, a lot of carriers' capacity will remain moderated for a while here. We suspect that's because of the same pilot constraints that we have, but it does look like it will remain moderated for a while. And I'll go back to what I said in terms of ARC. So how that how that interacts with the yield environment, I think we'll just have to see. But the best guess would be that for a while you do have moderated overall capacity.

我真的 - 我無法與業界以及他們的計劃交談。我認為，如果你展望未來——尤其是飛機，如果你展望中期運力，正如安德魯所指出的那樣，許多航空公司的運力將在一段時間內保持放緩。我們懷疑這是因為我們有同樣的試點限制，但它看起來確實會保持一段時間。我將回到我所說的關於 ARC 的內容。那麼它如何與收益環境相互作用，我想我們只需要看看。但最好的猜測是，在一段時間內，您的整體容量確實有所緩和。

Again, if you look at us, we've got more capacity growth, a lot of that is carryover, but it is nearly all back into markets that we served pre-pandemic, served successfully, have an established customer base. And so we see that as very different than going -- putting all the service into new markets that then have to be developed. So those will -- that's why the plans next year include continued expansion of the revenue plan, continuing expansion of margins, continuing expansion of profits. So I see those things a little bit differently. But no, we can't -- I mean, we can't manage the industry environment. All we can do is manage Southwest Airlines.

再一次，如果你看看我們，我們的產能增長更多，其中很多是結轉，但它幾乎都回到了我們在大流行前服務、成功服務、擁有成熟客戶群的市場。因此，我們認為這與將所有服務投入到必須開發的新市場非常不同。所以這些將——這就是為什麼明年的計劃包括繼續擴大收入計劃、繼續擴大利潤率、繼續擴大利潤。所以我對這些事情的看法有點不同。但是不，我們不能——我的意思是，我們不能管理行業環境。我們能做的就是管理西南航空公司。

I would say that the -- Bob says we're going back in the markets we're in before. We know there's travel demand. We know that we normally would service that travel demand, yet we're unable to at this point in time. So we know the demand is there, right? So we'll put the supply up against that demand. We think that makes us to be quite low risk. It's clear that other carriers are having trouble scheduling all -- or servicing all of their RJs. And so the regional flying is down right now. If you look in the forward schedules, it kind of pops back up. So obviously, they're not going to get regional pilots a cliff change here in the next year. So it's unlikely that the capacity that's kind of out there in regional flying can actually be serviced. So you imagine that would come down as they true up their plans.

我想說的是——鮑勃說我們要回到以前的市場。我們知道有旅行需求。我們知道我們通常會滿足這種旅行需求，但我們目前無法提供服務。所以我們知道需求是存在的，對吧？因此，我們將根據需求增加供應。我們認為這使我們的風險很低。很明顯，其他運營商在安排所有 RJ 或為其所有 RJ 提供服務方面遇到了麻煩。因此，區域飛行現在正在下降。如果您查看前進的時間表，它會突然出現。所以很明顯，明年他們不會讓區域飛行員在這裡發生懸崖變化。因此，區域飛行中的那種能力實際上不太可能得到服務。所以你想像這會隨著他們實現他們的計劃而下降。

And we have time for one more question. We'll take our last question from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。我們將向 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu 提出最後一個問題。

I just have 2 questions on labor, if that's okay. So first, when we think about your net new hires for 2022, it's about 10,000 folks or 15% of the workforce, who will have less than 1 year of experience. So how do we think about the timing of getting those employees up to speed? And is there a CASM impact associated with that for 2023?

我只有兩個關於勞動的問題，如果可以的話。因此，首先，當我們考慮到 2022 年的淨新員工時，大約有 10,000 人或 15% 的員工擁有不到 1 年的經驗。那麼，我們如何考慮讓這些員工跟上進度的時機呢？ 2023 年是否存在與 CASM 相關的影響？

Yes. No, we've thought about all of that as we've shared our guidance with you this morning. But yes, there's certainly an impact as we hire new employees. There is some dilution as a result of that, that offset somewhat some of the inflation that we're seeing. And of course -- but on the other hand, there is a penalty, if you will, because we are continuing to hire to fund future growth. So that probably washes itself out a bit as we look ahead into 2023.

是的。不，當我們今天早上與您分享我們的指導時，我們已經考慮了所有這些。但是，是的，當我們僱用新員工時，肯定會產生影響。因此有一些稀釋，這在一定程度上抵消了我們所看到的一些通貨膨脹。當然 - 但另一方面，如果你願意的話，會有罰款，因為我們將繼續招聘以資助未來的增長。因此，當我們展望 2023 年時，這可能會有些影響。

And I think some of the -- that proficiency question, which we've been asked a lot, is probably different by workgroup. So you take a pilot, and they come out of training. And you've got 2 pilots in the cockpit and you're proficient. In other words, you're not becoming more productive over time. You're flying the aircraft, and you're fully proficient. Other jobs, on the ramp, for example, you're trained, but it takes a long time to understand the nuance of the job, you're paired with somebody else. Mike uses the word, get our tempo back. You're just slow at first, scan and bag, that kind of thing. So you've got other jobs that over time we will gain efficiency. And as folks in those jobs get their tempo or their full proficiency back. So I think it does vary by workgroup. But there is opportunity, for sure. Opportunity, for sure, 2023, to begin to wring those efficiencies out of the operation.

我認為我們經常被問到的一些熟練度問題可能因工作組而異。所以你帶了一個飛行員，他們就結束了訓練。而且你的駕駛艙裡有 2 名飛行員，而且你很熟練。換句話說，隨著時間的推移，你並沒有變得更有效率。你正在駕駛飛機，而且你完全精通。其他工作，例如，在坡道上，你接受過培訓，但需要很長時間才能理解工作的細微差別，你是與其他人配對的。邁克用這個詞，讓我們的節奏回來。一開始你只是很慢，掃描和打包之類的。因此，您還有其他工作，隨著時間的推移，我們將提高效率。隨著從事這些工作的人們恢復他們的節奏或完全的熟練程度。所以我認為它確實因工作組而異。但肯定有機會。 2023 年肯定有機會開始從運營中榨取這些效率。

That's helpful. And then just another follow-up on labor. I think, at the Analyst Day in 2021, you targeted 80 employees per aircraft. And we've seen that step up to 86 per aircraft today, granted that's hiring ahead of the aircraft coming in. So how do we think about that level normalizing?

這很有幫助。然後只是另一個關於勞動的後續行動。我認為，在 2021 年的分析師日，您的目標是每架飛機配備 80 名員工。而且我們已經看到今天每架飛機增加了 86 架，當然這是在飛機進來之前招聘的。那麼我們如何看待這個水平正常化？

Well, we'll be sharing a lot of this in December at Investor Day. I think the -- I think that normalization of that number is being affected by a number of things. It's just, again, it's the inefficiency in the system that will take, I think, all of 2023 to wring that out. It will take flying all of our aircraft. It will take becoming proficient. It's also going to take modernization of some of our tools and processes, taking -- and again, we're going to share a lot of this stuff, using new tools and processes, taking paper out of the turn so that it takes less labor in some areas, as an example, to perform the same tasks.

好吧，我們將在 12 月的投資者日分享很多內容。我認為 - 我認為該數字的正常化受到許多因素的影響。再一次，我認為，系統的低效率將需要 2023 年的全部時間才能解決。這將需要飛行我們所有的飛機。這將需要變得熟練。它還需要我們的一些工具和流程的現代化，再次，我們將分享很多這樣的東西，使用新的工具和流程，減少紙張，從而減少勞動力在某些領域，例如，執行相同的任務。

We also have to take a look on the other side of things like -- if we're going to continue to take -- I'm just making this up, but the MAX 8 for a while, like we have been in lieu of the -7, well, it takes an extra flight attendant to manage that aircraft. And so we're going to have to just think about the 80 in that context. But the goal remains to be efficient in terms of employees per aircraft. And we'll share an update on our thinking and then how to close that gap at our December Investor Day.

我們還必須看看另一面的事情，比如——如果我們要繼續採取——我只是在編造這個，但 MAX 8 有一段時間了，就像我們一直在代替-7，嗯，管理那架飛機需要額外的空乘人員。因此，我們將不得不在這種情況下考慮 80 年代。但就每架飛機的員工人數而言，目標仍然是高效。我們將在 12 月的投資者日分享我們的最新想法以及如何縮小這一差距。

Okay. Well, that wraps up the analyst portion of our call today. I appreciate everyone joining, and have a great day.

好的。好吧，這就是我們今天電話會議的分析師部分。我感謝大家的加入，祝您有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the media portion of today's call. I'd like to first introduce Ms. Linda Rutherford, Chief Administration and Communications Officer.

女士們，先生們，我們現在開始今天電話會議的媒體部分。我想首先介紹一下首席行政和通訊官Linda Rutherford 女士。

Thank you, Jamie, and welcome to the members of the news media to our call today. We can go ahead and jump right into our Q&A. So Jamie, if you would just give them some queuing instructions, we'll get started.

謝謝你，傑米，歡迎新聞媒體成員今天來電。我們可以繼續直接進入我們的問答環節。所以傑米，如果你能給他們一些排隊的指示，我們就開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from Alison Sider from Wall Street Journal.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自華爾街日報的 Alison Sider。

I guess on the MAX 7 certification, just curious if you could share anything? When did it become clear to you that, that certification wasn't going to happen this year? And sort of how did you find out about it? And anything you could share about kind of your reaction as that situation has evolved?

我猜關於 MAX 7 認證，只是好奇你是否可以分享任何東西？您什麼時候明確表示，該認證不會在今年發生？你是怎麼知道的？隨著這種情況的發展，您可以分享您的反應嗎？

Yes, Alison, this is Mike. We talked to Boeing continuously, and they're working diligently with the FAA to provide the information we need to get the airplane certified. And at this point in time, Boeing believes that there's a chance to get certified at the end of this year or early next year. And so that's -- I don't have anything other to add -- anything more to add other than that.

是的，艾莉森，這是邁克。我們不斷與波音公司進行交談，他們正在努力與美國聯邦航空局合作，為我們提供獲得飛機認證所需的信息。而在這個時間點，波音公司認為有機會在今年年底或明年年初獲得認證。這就是——我沒有其他要添加的內容——除此之外還有什麼要添加的。

And I guess has there been any like surprise or frustration regarding reports that Boeing sort of have gotten behind in some of the certification paperwork or some of the submissions were incomplete and the FAA's reaction to that?

而且我想對於波音公司在某些認證文書工作中落後或某些提交不完整以及美國聯邦航空局對此的反應的報導是否有任何類似的驚訝或沮喪？

Well, there's just -- there's a lot of -- I mean, it's a new process for both Boeing and the FAA go through. So when you just think about trying to go through the process with all the information, first of all, you want to have a format of that information to flow to the FAA with. And then you agree on that, they need to gather all that information and submit it. There's an analysis that needs to be done and there's questions. And I think all of that just takes time, and it's brand-new and they haven't had to do it before.

嗯，只是——有很多——我的意思是，這是波音和美國聯邦航空局都要經歷的一個新流程。因此，當您只是考慮嘗試使用所有信息完成該過程時，首先，您希望有一種格式的信息以流向 FAA。然後你同意，他們需要收集所有信息並提交。有需要進行的分析和問題。而且我認為所有這些都需要時間，而且是全新的，他們以前不需要這樣做。

And our next question comes from Robert Silk from Travel Weekly.

我們的下一個問題來自 Travel Weekly 的 Robert Silk。

So some of the other -- the big 3 carriers that have been talking about a little bit of narrowing of demand, the variation in demand across days of the week and even across hours of the day due to hybrid work schedules and bleisure travel. Are you all seeing any of that?

所以其他一些——三大航空公司一直在談論需求的一點點縮小，由於混合工作時間表和休閒旅行，一周中幾天甚至一天中幾個小時的需求變化。你們都看到了嗎？

I think every -- after every recession, business travel demand changes, behavior changes a little bit. So we should expect this time for it to change as well. So we did see during COVID, when business travel was much reduced, we did see leisure travel and periods where you often didn't see it before. So you still have more leisure travel in July than you do in September. The surprise finding is there's more leisure travel in September than it used to be. And now during COVID, that led to kind of more -- you had peaks and valleys that were kind of more prevalent in COVID because of the absence of business demand.

我認為每次經濟衰退之後，商務旅行需求都會發生變化，行為也會發生一些變化。所以我們應該期待這一次它也會改變。因此，我們確實在 COVID 期間看到了，當商務旅行大大減少時，我們確實看到了休閒旅行以及您以前經常看不到的時期。因此，7 月份的休閒旅行仍然比 9 月份多。令人驚訝的發現是，9 月份的休閒旅行比以往任何時候都多。現在在 COVID 期間，這導致了更多——由於缺乏業務需求，在 COVID 中出現了更普遍的高峰和低谷。

Now as business demand comes back, as we discussed earlier, and that leisure demand is staying. And that's a surprise. It's not the case that, as we rotate out of the pandemic and go back into the office, that, that leisure demand goes away in the off period of time. It appears to stick. And so that's quite welcome. And so that does tend to dampen some level of seasonality, but you're still going to have that seasonality. It's a welcome development and -- but they're still going to have peak season and off-peak season.

現在，正如我們之前討論的那樣，隨著商業需求的回歸，休閒需求依然存在。這是一個驚喜。並不是說，隨著我們從大流行病中輪流回到辦公室，休閒需求會在休息時間消失。它似乎粘住了。所以這很受歡迎。所以這確實會抑制一定程度的季節性，但你仍然會有這種季節性。這是一個可喜的發展——但他們仍然會有旺季和淡季。

And Robert, the only thing I would add, I do think it's interesting, I mean these are new phenomenon, right? So these -- some of this -- the leisure strength has been with us for a long time now coming out of COVID. We've had very strong leisure. But the sort of the shifting of leisure into some of the prior off peak periods and strength in typically off months like a September and day a week and all those things, they're noticeable. You can see them, and they're real. What I think we want to be careful with is trying to decide that this is forever. I think as we continue -- as the business travel continues to restore and as people's work habits, if that's a piece of this, as they continue to move, I think it's going to take a while for all of this to settle down, and I do think it continues to change. So I would -- I've personally been slow to decide that we have a new trend, and that's the trend for a long period of time.

還有羅伯特，我唯一要補充的是，我認為這很有趣，我的意思是這些都是新現象，對吧？所以這些 - 其中一些 - 休閒力量已經伴隨我們很長時間了，現在來自 COVID。我們有非常強烈的休閒。但是，將休閒轉移到之前的一些非高峰期和通常在九月和每週一天等非高峰期的強度以及所有這些事情，它們是顯而易見的。你可以看到它們，它們是真實的。我認為我們要小心的是試圖確定這是永遠的。我認為隨著我們繼續 - 隨著商務旅行繼續恢復以及人們的工作習慣，如果這是其中的一部分，隨著他們繼續移動，我認為所有這一切都需要一段時間才能安定下來，並且我確實認為它會繼續改變。所以我會 - 我個人一直很慢地決定我們有一個新的趨勢，這是很長一段時間的趨勢。

What's really -- what we're focused on is whatever the why and this idea of blending business and leisure, the trends are really good. The leisure trends are really strong. The business trends have come out of that dip and they are strengthening. So our revenue trends overall are really strong. They're strengthening further in the fourth quarter. I think we think they'll strengthen further in 2023. So that's the focus versus trying to understand in exact detail whether some of these things are forever.

什麼是真正的 - 我們關注的是什麼原因以及這種融合商務和休閒的想法，趨勢非常好。休閒趨勢非常強勁。商業趨勢已經走出這種低谷，並且正在加強。因此，我們的整體收入趨勢非常強勁。他們在第四季度進一步加強。我認為我們認為它們將在 2023 年進一步加強。所以這是重點，而不是試圖詳細了解其中一些事情是否永遠存在。

And our next question comes from David Slotnick from TPG.

我們的下一個問題來自 TPG 的 David Slotnick。

Thinking about just MAX 7, are you -- do you have a contingency or a Plan B for it. It's not certified this year, and if Congress chooses not to pass the ICAS extension?

只考慮 MAX 7，您是否有應急方案或 B 計劃。今年沒有通過認證，如果國會選擇不通過 ICAS 延期？

Well, David, Boeing is very confident that they've got a path to either certification or an extension. And I believe that that's going to happen as well. But if for some reason, by off chance it doesn't happen, of course, we have plan Bs, but we're just not publicly discussing them at this point.

好吧，大衛，波音公司非常有信心，他們已經獲得了認證或延期的途徑。我相信這也會發生。但是，如果由於某種原因，碰巧沒有發生，當然，我們有 B 計劃，但我們現在還沒有公開討論它們。

And as Bob talked, we can easily tolerate that next year. In fact, our network plan and business plan for next year assumes no MAX 7 deliveries. And so you've already figured out that we can operate 2023, just fine with all MAX 8s and the 700s we have today. So beyond that, we continue to take in MAX 8s for a period of time as well. The benefit of having such a decentralized network and kind of really good options around the country is that we can rejigger our network without kind of unwinding it. If you have a big hub and spoke, it's pretty fragile. You have to operate the hubs and spokes just like the hub is supposed to operate, otherwise you miss connectivity for us. We have a lot of flexibility moving our assets around. So that gives us a much bigger tolerance in some to deal with this.

正如鮑勃所說，明年我們可以很容易地容忍這種情況。事實上，我們明年的網絡計劃和業務計劃假設沒有 MAX 7 交付。所以你已經知道我們可以在 2023 年運營，對我們今天擁有的所有 MAX 8 和 700 來說都很好。因此，除此之外，我們還將繼續使用 MAX 8s 一段時間。在全國范圍內擁有這樣一個去中心化網絡和一種非常好的選擇的好處是，我們可以重新調整我們的網絡而無需解散它。如果你有一個大的中心和輻條，它就很脆弱。您必須像集線器應該操作的那樣操作集線器和輻條，否則您會錯過我們的連接。我們有很大的靈活性來移動我們的資產。所以這給了我們更大的容忍度來處理這個問題。

Yes. And just one last thought just to emphasize again in our order book that we have with. Boeing gives us tremendous flexibility. And there's a lot of detail in our release today, and we've been converting, as you can see there, to -8s along the way here. So we've been able to manage through really without any issues so far.

是的。最後一個想法只是為了在我們的訂單簿中再次強調我們所擁有的。波音給了我們極大的靈活性。我們今天發布的版本中有很多細節，正如您在此處看到的，我們一直在轉換為 -8s。因此，到目前為止，我們已經能夠真正做到沒有任何問題。

Sure. And then just looking at holiday travel coming up, forgive me if you said it before, are you planning just given the extended holiday period for staff incentives or any other kind of staffing plan, just avoiding the issues that some carriers have last year?

當然。然後只是看看即將到來的假期旅行，如果您之前說過，請原諒我，您是否計劃延長假期以激勵員工或任何其他類型的人員配備計劃，只是避免一些運營商去年遇到的問題？

Well, David, last year, because of the -- where we were in the staffing, we did have incentive plans to try to incent people to come in on their days off. But our staffing level is significantly enhanced this year. And then we spent quite a bit of time making sure that the schedules that we published we've got matched to our resources. So we feel well prepared to go into the holiday travel just like we did in the summer.

好吧，大衛，去年，因為我們在人員配置中的位置，我們確實有激勵計劃來試圖激勵人們在他們的休息日進來。但今年我們的人員配備水平顯著提高。然後我們花了很多時間確保我們發布的時間表與我們的資源相匹配。所以我們感覺已經做好了準備，就像我們在夏天做的那樣去度假旅行。

Yes, I think we're in so much better shape. The other thing just to remember, especially Christmas and New Year's last year, we were dealing with Omicron. So in addition to being a little tighter than we would like on staffing generally, we went in 2 to 3 weeks, we suddenly had thousands of employees that were out with Omicron at the tail end of December and early January, which made the staffing, it just really compounded that staffing question. So that's really what you saw last Christmas and New Year's. We -- as Mike mentioned, we've had focus on -- like always on managing the summer really well and then managing these holiday periods like the 4th of July really, really well because obviously, they're important to our customers.

是的，我認為我們的狀態要好得多。另一件要記住的事情，尤其是去年的聖誕節和新年，我們正在與 Omicron 打交道。因此，除了在人員配置上比我們預期的要緊一點外，我們在 2 到 3 週內就去了，在 12 月底和 1 月初，我們突然有數千名員工與 Omicron 一起外出，這使得人員配置，它確實使人員配備問題更加複雜。所以這就是你在去年聖誕節和新年看到的。我們——正如邁克所說，我們一直專注於——就像總是把夏天管理得很好，然後把這些假期管理得很好，比如 7 月 4 日，因為很明顯，它們對我們的客戶很重要。

And our -- Mike, I think our cancel rate was well under 1%. I mean, we had terrific operations during those summer holiday periods, and we will focus on the operation overall. And then, of course, the holiday period is the same way this fall. But bottom line, we are so much better staffed. And again, we -- I know I mentioned this 3 or 4 times, we've not republished our schedules. And that schedule stability, it just makes our staffing even more efficient because our crews haven't been moved around just like our customers have moved around if we have to republish the schedule.

我們的——邁克，我認為我們的取消率遠低於 1%。我的意思是，我們在暑假期間的運營非常好，我們將專注於整體運營。然後，當然，今年秋天的假期也一樣。但歸根結底，我們的人員配備要好得多。再說一次，我們——我知道我提到了 3 或 4 次，我們還沒有重新發布我們的日程安排。而這種日程安排的穩定性，只會讓我們的人員配備更有效率，因為我們的工作人員並沒有像我們的客戶在我們必須重新發布日程安排時四處走動一樣四處走動。

And our final question today comes from Leslie Josephs from CNBC.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 CNBC 的 Leslie Josephs。

Just curious on the pilot negotiations and flight attendant and other negotiations as well. How much do you think those contracts are going to add to your costs in 2023 if you do reach a deal soon? Because inflation is much higher than when you started negotiating. And then on the pilot shortage issue, in general, are you in favor of any increase in the pilot retirement age or changes to training from the 1,500-hour rule? I know [Republic] had some trouble with that. How do you think about that? And do you think there's a need for any legislative or regulatory changes there?

只是對飛行員談判和空姐以及其他談判感到好奇。如果您很快達成協議，您認為這些合同將在 2023 年增加多少成本？因為通貨膨脹比你開始談判時高得多。然後在飛行員短缺問題上，一般來說，您是否贊成提高飛行員退休年齡或改變 1,500 小時規則的訓練？我知道 [Republic] 在這方面遇到了一些麻煩。你怎麼看？您認為那裡有必要進行任何立法或監管變革嗎？

Leslie, Mike, I'll talk about the rates and then you can talk about the (inaudible). On the rates, as Tammy pointed, we constantly update those. And I'm not going to talk about negotiations here, obviously. We're in mediation with both our pilots and our flight attendants. And I'm hopeful that helps, and it helps move us to a deal sooner because again, I want to get contracts, and we'd love to get them soon with our awesome employees. But we are -- as you look at both inflation and then as you look at deals that are occurring in the industry, we had Alaska just had a pilot deal last week, for example. As Tammy mentioned, we look at those and then we manage our accruals accordingly. And I would say, you never know until you get there. But I would say, right now, it feels like we're adequately accrued for all our groups beginning last April, of course, but I think our approvals look really reasonable to me. Now the markets really move. Who knows? But in terms of what we've seen happen so far, our accruals are very reasonable.

Leslie，Mike，我會談談費率，然後你們可以談談（聽不清）。正如 Tammy 指出的那樣，在費率方面，我們會不斷更新這些費率。很明顯，我不打算在這裡談論談判。我們正在與我們的飛行員和空乘人員進行調解。我希望這會有所幫助，它有助於我們更快地達成協議，因為我想再次獲得合同，我們很樂意盡快與我們出色的員工一起獲得合同。但我們是——當你看到通貨膨脹，然後當你看到行業中發生的交易時，例如，我們上周剛剛有阿拉斯加的試點交易。正如 Tammy 所提到的，我們會查看這些，然後相應地管理我們的應計項目。我會說，在你到達那里之前你永遠不會知道。但我想說，現在，從去年 4 月開始，我們的所有團隊都獲得了足夠的支持，當然，但我認為我們的批准在我看來真的很合理。現在市場真的在動。誰知道？但就我們迄今為止所看到的情況而言，我們的應計費用非常合理。

And Mike, on just the changes to the pilot requirements.

還有邁克，關於試點要求的變化。

No, we're not. I don't think we're interested in the pilot age going up further than what it is, and then the pilot requirements are fine with us the way they are today. We're -- I think we're an employer of choice. We have -- I think, really all of our labor contracts, when you look at the scheduling and the quality of life, the compensation, the benefits, the retirements, I think we have best-in-class contracts. We had that coming into the pandemic. I expect we'll have those going out of the pandemic. And as a result, we're able to recruit all the people that we need. So we haven't had a problem recruiting pilots or any other workgroups for that matter.

沒有，我們沒有。我不認為我們對飛行員時代比現在更感興趣，然後飛行員的要求對我們來說很好，就像他們今天一樣。我們是——我認為我們是首選雇主。我們有 - 我認為，實際上我們所有的勞動合同，當你查看日程安排和生活質量、薪酬、福利、退休時，我認為我們擁有一流的合同。我們在大流行中遇到了這種情況。我希望我們會讓那些人擺脫大流行。因此，我們能夠招募到所有我們需要的人。因此，我們在招募飛行員或任何其他工作組方面沒有遇到問題。

And this concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Ms. Rutherford for any closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權轉回盧瑟福女士的任何結束髮言。

Thank you, Jamie. Thanks to the members of the media for joining us today. If you all have any other questions, you can reach out to our RockStar Communications Group at (214) 792-4847, or you can visit us at our media website at www.swamedia.com. Thank you so much.

謝謝你，傑米。感謝媒體成員今天加入我們。如果大家還有任何其他問題，可以撥打 (214) 792-4847 聯繫我們的 RockStar Communications Group，或者訪問我們的媒體網站 www.swamedia.com。太感謝了。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. We do thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，會議到此結束。我們非常感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路。