西南航空 (LUV) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Southwest Airlines Second Quarter 2022 Conference Call. My name is Chad, and I will be moderating today's call. This call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on southwest.com in the Investor Relations section. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加西南航空公司 2022 年第二季度電話會議。我的名字是乍得，我將主持今天的電話會議。本次通話正在錄音，重播將在 south.com 的“投資者關係”部分提供。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Ryan Martinez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

此時，我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Ryan Martinez 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you all for joining us for our second quarter earnings call. In just a moment, we will share some prepared remarks and then open it up for Q&A. And with me today, we have our CEO, Bob Jordan; Executive Vice President and CFO, Tammy Romo; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Watterson; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Mike Van de Ven.

感謝大家加入我們的第二季度財報電話會議。稍後，我們將分享一些準備好的評論，然後將其打開以進行問答。今天和我在一起的是我們的首席執行官鮑勃·喬丹；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Tammy Romo；執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Andrew Watterson；總裁兼首席運營官 Mike Van de Ven。

A quick reminder that we will make forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectation of future performance, and our actual results could differ substantially from these expectations.

快速提醒一下，我們將根據我們目前對未來業績的預期做出前瞻性陳述，我們的實際結果可能與這些預期有很大差異。

Also, we had a few special items in our second quarter results, which we excluded from our trends for non-GAAP purposes, and we will reference our non-GAAP results as well. So please refer to our press release from this morning in our Investor Relations website for more information.

此外，我們在第二季度的業績中有一些特殊項目，我們出於非 GAAP 目的將其排除在趨勢之外，我們也將參考我們的非 GAAP 業績。因此，請參閱我們今天上午在我們的投資者關係網站上發布的新聞稿以獲取更多信息。

And with that, Bob, I'll turn it over to you.

有了這個，鮑勃，我會把它交給你。

Well, thank you, Ryan, and I appreciate everybody joining us this morning. Well, what a difference a quarter can make. Coming off first quarter's net loss, you will recall that we are encouraged by the positive trend change in travel demand in March, and we're optimistic about summer travel revenues. That said, I don't think any of us expected demand to surge to the levels we experienced in the second quarter, particularly in June.

好吧，謝謝你，瑞恩，我感謝今天早上加入我們的每個人。好吧，一個季度可以帶來多大的改變。結束第一季度的淨虧損後，您會記得，我們對 3 月份旅遊需求的積極趨勢變化感到鼓舞，我們對夏季旅遊收入持樂觀態度。也就是說，我認為我們中的任何人都不會預期需求會飆升至第二季度的水平，尤其是在 6 月份。

Andrew will cover the revenue details, but Q2 operating revenues increased 13.9% versus Q2 2019 to an all-time quarterly record of $6.7 billion despite Q2 managed business revenue still down 24% and capacity that was still down about 7%. We also produced an all-time record quarterly net income, excluding special items, of $825 million. It is all because of the people at Southwest Airlines, and I want to just say a huge thank you to them for a job very well done. I want to congratulate them on the progress that we've made together. It's just an incredible turnaround from last year, not to mention just a quarter ago.

安德魯將介紹收入細節，但第二季度營業收入與 2019 年第二季度相比增長了 13.9%，達到了 67 億美元的歷史季度記錄，儘管第二季度管理的業務收入仍下降了 24%，產能仍下降了約 7%。我們還創造了創紀錄的季度淨收入（不包括特殊項目），達到 8.25 億美元。這一切都歸功於西南航空公司的員工，我只想對他們非常出色的工作表示衷心的感謝。我要祝賀他們共同取得的進展。與去年相比，這只是一個令人難以置信的轉變，更不用說僅僅在一個季度前。

Looking forward, demand continues to be strong. We continue to experience both inflationary pressures and headwinds from lower productivity and efficiency. Energy prices have moderated a bit recently, but remain high, and we expect to have another meaningful fuel hedging gain here in Q3. But most importantly, we remain largely on our plan for this year.

展望未來，需求繼續強勁。我們繼續面臨著通脹壓力和生產力和效率下降帶來的不利因素。能源價格最近有所放緩，但仍處於高位，我們預計第三季度將再次獲得有意義的燃料對沖收益。但最重要的是，我們今年的計劃基本保持不變。

Our 2022 capacity remains stable. We remain on our cost plan. We're slightly ahead of our overall staffing plan, and our operational reliability is much improved. We've made tremendous progress, and our people have a lot to be proud of. I'm just extremely thankful for all of their efforts in getting us to this point in the pandemic recovery.

我們 2022 年的產能保持穩定。我們仍然在我們的成本計劃上。我們的整體人員配置計劃略超前，我們的運營可靠性也大大提高。我們取得了巨大的進步，我們的人民有很多值得驕傲的地方。我非常感謝他們為使我們在大流行恢復中達到這一點所做的所有努力。

Our third quarter guidance is based on our current outlook and excludes any significant unforeseen events, but I'll admit that there's a lot of noise out there right now. It seems that all of us know someone who has this latest strand of COVID, inflation pressures are real, and there are worries about a potential recession. Consumer and business sentiment is down, and there are data points out there that could indicate early signs of a slowdown.

我們的第三季度指導基於我們當前的前景，不包括任何重大的不可預見事件，但我承認目前存在很多噪音。似乎我們所有人都知道有人感染了最新的 COVID 病毒，通脹壓力是真實存在的，並且擔心潛在的經濟衰退。消費者和企業信心下降，並且有數據表明可能表明經濟放緩的早期跡象。

But so far, demand remains strong, and we haven't seen material impacts to our business. As always, we'll continue to monitor the environment and be ready to respond if needed. It's helpful to remember that we have historically lagged in terms of impact to revenues going into a recession, and we have typically lagged recovery coming out.

但到目前為止，需求仍然強勁，我們還沒有看到對我們的業務產生重大影響。與往常一樣，我們將繼續監控環境，並準備好在需要時做出響應。記住，我們在對進入衰退的收入的影響方面歷來滯後，而且我們通常滯後於復甦的出現，這很有幫助。

Well, you've heard me mention our list of key priorities for 2022 many times, I'd like to share our midyear progress on each of them. First, getting properly staffed at focusing on our people. I'm really proud to report that we reached pre-pandemic staffing levels in May 2022, which is just a huge milestone. We continue hiring in specific areas, particularly for pilots, and we expect to add over 10,000 employees this year out of attrition.

好吧，你已經聽到我多次提到我們的 2022 年關鍵優先事項清單，我想分享我們在每個方面的年中進展。首先，配備適當的人員以專注於我們的員工。我很自豪地報告，我們在 2022 年 5 月達到了大流行前的人員配備水平，這只是一個巨大的里程碑。我們繼續在特定領域招聘，尤其是飛行員，我們預計今年將增加 10,000 多名員工以減少減員。

We're pleased to be seeing the impact of our hiring in airports, especially given the busy travel season that we're in. Now that thousands of new employees have been due training and are contributing on the front line. Second, making progress towards our historic operational reliability and efficiency. Our operational performance since April has been very strong, and our flight cancellations in May and June were less than 1%, which means a 99-plus percent completion factor.

我們很高興看到我們在機場招聘的影響，特別是考慮到我們正處於繁忙的旅行季節。現在成千上萬的新員工已經接受了培訓，並在前線做出了貢獻。其次，在我們歷史性的運營可靠性和效率方面取得進展。自 4 月以來，我們的運營表現非常強勁，我們在 5 月和 6 月的航班取消率不到 1%，這意味著完成率超過 99%。

Mike will cover the operations in more detail, but we are benefiting from getting better staffed, getting new employees through training and on the front line, adding more short-haul flying to provide better network stability and adding more flying between crew bases. We know that we've got work to do on the efficiency side as we focus on 2023, and we're laser-focused on walking down fleet and capacity plans, moderating our overall hiring, optimizing staffing to flight schedules, ringing out cost inefficiencies and returning to our historic efficiency levels by the end of next year.

邁克將更詳細地介紹運營情況，但我們受益於更好的人員配備、通過培訓和前線獲得新員工、增加更多短途飛行以提供更好的網絡穩定性以及增加機組基地之間的飛行。我們知道，當我們專注於 2023 年時，我們在效率方面還有工作要做，並且我們專注於製定機隊和容量計劃，調整我們的整體招聘，根據航班時刻表優化人員配備，消除成本效率低下的問題並在明年年底前恢復到我們的歷史效率水平。

But again, I just want to thank our amazing people for their hard work as we continue to improve our operational reliability. And I want to thank our partners at the FAA and in the administration for working to overcome challenges and continuing to improve the airspace as travel demand returns.

但再次，我只想感謝我們出色的員工在我們繼續提高運營可靠性時所做的辛勤工作。我要感謝我們在 FAA 和政府部門的合作夥伴，他們努力克服挑戰，並隨著旅行需求的回歸繼續改善空域。

Third, providing legendary hospitality. I'm very proud of our people and our employees for restoring our customer service advantage this year. For January through May, we are #1 in customer service per the DOT's ranking for marketing carriers. I continue to be out in the field on a regular basis, and I get to experience firsthand, our terrific employees taking great care of our customers.

第三，提供傳奇的款待。我為我們的員工和員工今年恢復了我們的客戶服務優勢感到非常自豪。從 1 月到 5 月，根據 DOT 的營銷運營商排名，我們在客戶服務方面排名第一。我將繼續定期到該領域工作，我可以親身體驗，我們出色的員工非常關心我們的客戶。

I get the e-mails, I see the stories, and I truly appreciate what they all do each and every day for our customers and for each other. I'm also very pleased to announce that we continue to make traveling on Southwest Airlines even easier by adding yet another customer benefit, our new flight credits don't expire policy. It's an industry-leading flight credit policy. And when you combine that with no change fees, no bag fees, Rapid Rewards points that don't expire and transferable flight credits, it's just a powerful low-fare brand combo that's all about winning more customers. While there is a cost, it's really the onetime cost of extending the COVID-related funds that would have expired this September and we expect the impact to be immaterial beyond this quarter.

我收到電子郵件，看到故事，我真的很感激他們每天為我們的客戶和彼此所做的一切。我也很高興地宣布，我們通過增加另一項客戶福利，繼續讓西南航空公司的旅行變得更加輕鬆，我們的新航班積分不會過期政策。這是行業領先的飛行信用政策。當您將其與無改簽費、無行李費、永不過期的快速獎勵積分和可轉讓的航班積分相結合時，它就是一個強大的低價品牌組合，旨在贏得更多客戶。雖然存在成本，但這確實是延長本應在今年 9 月到期的 COVID 相關資金的一次性成本，我們預計本季度之後的影響將不顯著。

And finally, returning to consistent profitability. We just reported record earnings for Q2, and this is the most stable revenue environment that we've had in over 2 years. We remain well protected with our fuel hedge, and we are currently expecting to be profitable for Q3 and Q4 and for the full year 2022. Our main gating factor to future growth is pilot hiring. Despite delays in aircraft deliveries, we feel good about our ability to fly our flight schedules as planned, which are currently published through March 8. Our current outlook for first quarter 2023 is for capacity to be up about 10% versus first quarter 2022. And if we find ourselves in a position to need to republish schedules or trim capacity, we can certainly do that, but I'm optimistic that we can continue to avoid that going forward.

最後，恢復穩定的盈利能力。我們剛剛公佈了第二季度創紀錄的收益，這是我們兩年多來最穩定的收入環境。我們的燃料對沖仍然得到很好的保護，我們目前預計第三季度和第四季度以及 2022 年全年將實現盈利。我們未來增長的主要決定因素是試點招聘。儘管飛機交付出現延誤，但我們對我們按計劃飛行航班時刻表的能力感到滿意，該時刻表目前公佈至 3 月 8 日。我們目前對 2023 年第一季度的預測是，運力將比 2022 年第一季度增長約 10%。如果我們發現自己需要重新發佈時間表或削減產能，我們當然可以這樣做，但我樂觀地認為我們可以繼續避免這種情況。

It is still very early for 2023. So we're just going to take it one quarter at a time beyond our currently published schedules. But we're turning our focus to 2023 planning and, in particular, regaining historic efficiency levels, and we'll share our 2023 outlook with you at Investor Day, which is currently planned for December 7.

2023 年還為時過早。因此，我們將在當前發布的時間表之外，一次完成四分之一。但我們將重點轉向 2023 年規劃，特別是恢復歷史效率水平，我們將在目前計劃於 12 月 7 日舉行的投資者日與您分享我們的 2023 年展望。

Last, I just want to stop and acknowledge the assailant incident event that we had at Love Field earlier this week. Luckily, all of our employees and customers are safe. And I just want to say a huge thank you to our employees for taking great care of our customers and each other. I want to thank law enforcement for their swift and professional action. Thank the TSA for managing the fault out. And just thank you to everybody involved for keeping this from being worse. I'm just very, very grateful for that.

最後，我只想停止並承認我們本週早些時候在 Love Field 發生的襲擊事件。幸運的是，我們所有的員工和客戶都很安全。我只想對我們的員工表示衷心的感謝，感謝他們對我們的客戶和彼此的照顧。我要感謝執法部門的迅速而專業的行動。感謝 TSA 管理故障。並感謝所有參與其中的人，以防止這種情況變得更糟。我對此非常非常感激。

And with that, I will turn it over to Tammy.

有了這個，我會把它交給塔米。

Thank you, Bob, and hello, everyone. First, I'd also like to thank our employees for their outstanding efforts this quarter, which resulted in solid operational and record financial performance. The demand surge, coupled with constrained capacity, resulted in a strong yield environment and record quarterly operating revenues of $6.7 billion. The record revenue performance drove record quarterly net income, excluding special items, of $825 million despite higher fuel and inflationary cost pressures. We have also posted a strong operating margin, excluding special items, of 17.4%, which exceeded second quarter 2019 levels. All around, this was an impressive quarter and an important milestone along our pandemic recovery.

謝謝鮑勃，大家好。首先，我還要感謝我們的員工在本季度做出的傑出努力，這帶來了穩健的運營和創紀錄的財務業績。需求激增，加上產能受限，帶來了強勁的收益環境和創紀錄的 67 億美元的季度營業收入。儘管燃料和通脹成本壓力較高，但創紀錄的收入表現推動了創紀錄的季度淨收入（不包括特殊項目）達到 8.25 億美元。我們還公佈了強勁的營業利潤率（不包括特殊項目），為 17.4%，超過了 2019 年第二季度的水平。總的來說，這是一個令人印象深刻的季度，也是我們大流行複蘇過程中的一個重要里程碑。

Andrew will speak to our revenue trends in a minute, including why we made the policy change regarding flight credits that don't expire, but I want to make a few comments regarding the timing of revenue recognition for breakage revenue for tickets expected to go unused. The pandemic caused an extremely high number of customer flight cancellations during 2020, and to a lesser degree, last year and even the beginning of this year with Omicron wave. As a result, we have had more flight credits outstanding than normal. Today's policy change to eliminate the expiration dates for unused funds will result in lower breakage revenue for third quarter than we would record under our previous policy in large part due to the COVID-related travel funds that were set to expire in September. Andrew will cover the sequential impact to revenue in a minute, but we expect the policy change to result in significantly lower breakage revenue in third quarter, which we factored into our third quarter revenue guidance.

Andrew 將在一分鐘內談到我們的收入趨勢，包括為什麼我們對不會過期的航班積分進行政策更改，但我想就預計未使用的機票破損收入的收入確認時間發表一些評論.大流行在 2020 年導致了大量的客戶航班取消，去年甚至今年年初的 Omicron Wave 在較小程度上導致了取消。因此，我們的未償飛行積分比平時多。今天取消未使用資金到期日期的政策變更將導致第三季度的破損收入低於我們在之前政策下記錄的收入，這在很大程度上是由於與 COVID 相關的旅行資金定於 9 月到期。安德魯將在一分鐘內涵蓋對收入的連續影響，但我們預計政策變化將導致第三季度破損收入顯著降低，我們將其納入第三季度收入指導。

We currently expect that impact to be in the $250 million to $300 million range. As we look beyond third quarter, we expect breakage as a percentage of revenue to normalize back to pre-pandemic levels and any ongoing impact from this policy change is estimated to be immaterial beyond this quarter. Our people did a great job, managing costs in second quarter and our fuel hedge performed very well. While market prices have moderated a bit lately, they are still elevated, and volatile given the current geopolitical climate. Regardless of the continued uncertainty surrounding the market, our fuel hedge significantly offset the market price increase in jet fuel in second quarter 2022, saving us $330 million in fuel expense.

我們目前預計這種影響將在 2.5 億美元到 3 億美元之間。當我們展望第三季度之後，我們預計破損率佔收入的百分比將恢復到大流行前的水平，並且估計這一政策變化帶來的任何持續影響在本季度之後都將無關緊要。我們的員工在第二季度管理成本方面做得很好，我們的燃料對沖表現非常好。儘管最近市場價格有所放緩，但鑑於當前的地緣政治氣候，它們仍然處於高位且波動較大。儘管市場持續存在不確定性，我們的燃料對沖顯著抵消了 2022 年第二季度航空燃料市場價格的上漲，節省了 3.3 億美元的燃料費用。

We are 59% hedged for third quarter and estimate our third quarter fuel price to be in the $3.25 to $3.35 per gallon range, slightly below our second quarter fuel price. That includes an estimated $0.46 of hedging gains, which represents cost savings of more than $230 million in third quarter alone.

我們對第三季度進行了 59% 的對沖，估計我們第三季度的燃油價格在每加侖 3.25 美元到 3.35 美元之間，略低於我們第二季度的燃油價格。這包括估計 0.46 美元的對沖收益，僅在第三季度就節省了超過 2.3 億美元的成本。

Of course, this is a snapshot of our fuel guidance at a point in time and market oil prices and jet fuel cracks can move materially on a daily basis. We continue to seek opportunities to expand our 2023 and 2024 portfolio. The fair market value of our fuel hedge for the second half of this year is approximately $430 million, which would bring our full year 2022 fuel hedge benefit to roughly $1 billion based on price assumptions outlined in our earnings release, and the fair market value of our fuel hedge in 2023 and beyond is estimated at roughly $580 million.

當然，這是我們在某個時間點的燃料指導的快照，市場油價和航空燃料裂縫每天都會發生重大變化。我們將繼續尋找機會擴大我們 2023 年和 2024 年的投資組合。我們今年下半年燃料對沖的公允市場價值約為 4.3 億美元，根據我們收益發布中概述的價格假設，這將使我們 2022 年全年的燃料對沖收益達到約 10 億美元，而公允市場價值為我們在 2023 年及以後的燃料對沖估計約為 5.8 億美元。

Taking a look at nonfuel costs, second quarter CASM-X was favorable to our previous guidance range at up 13.1% compared with second quarter 2019 and due to lower-than-anticipated benefit cost and the shifting of some maintenance costs into the second half of this year. For our third quarter, we currently estimate nonfuel CASM-X to increase in the range of 12% to 15% when compared with 2019 levels.

從非燃料成本來看，與 2019 年第二季度相比，第二季度 CASM-X 對我們之前的指導範圍有利，比 2019 年第二季度增長了 13.1%，原因是收益成本低於預期以及一些維護成本轉移到了下半年今年。對於我們的第三季度，我們目前估計非燃料 CASM-X 與 2019 年的水平相比將增加 12% 至 15%。

More than half of that increase continues to be driven by inflationary pressures, primarily in higher rates for our labor benefits and airports. The remainder of the CASM-X increase is attributable to headwinds from operating at suboptimal productivity levels as we continue to work to get adequately staffed and our new employees trained while third quarter capacity levels are expected to be roughly in line with 2019 levels.

超過一半的增長繼續受到通脹壓力的推動，主要是我們的勞動力福利和機場的更高利率。 CASM-X 增長的其餘部分是由於我們繼續努力獲得足夠的人員配備和我們的新員工培訓，而第三季度的產能水平預計將與 2019 年的水平大致一致，因此以次優的生產力水平運營帶來的不利因素。

Overall, I am pleased that we remain on track with our 2022 cost plan, especially in this environment, and our full year CASM-X guidance remains unchanged at 12% to 16% compared with 2019. As a reminder, this includes labor accruals for all work groups beginning April 1, taking into account our best estimate in this labor environment.

總的來說，我很高興我們在 2022 年的成本計劃中保持正軌，尤其是在這種環境下，我們的全年 CASM-X 指導與 2019 年相比保持 12% 至 16% 不變。提醒一下，這包括應計勞動力從 4 月 1 日開始的所有工作組，考慮到我們在這種勞動環境中的最佳估計。

Turning to our fleet. We have revised our expectations for aircraft deliveries this year due to supply chain challenges that Boeing is dealing with as well as the current status of the -7 MAX certification. Through the first half of this year, we took delivery of 12-8 MAX aircraft, and we now expect to take delivery of 23 aircraft in the third quarter and 31 aircraft in fourth quarter. All -8 MAX aircraft for a total of 66 deliveries this year.

轉向我們的艦隊。由於波音公司面臨的供應鏈挑戰以及 -7 MAX 認證的現狀，我們已經修改了對今年飛機交付的預期。今年上半年，我們接收了12-8架MAX飛機，現在預計第三季度接收23架，第四季度接收31架。全-8 MAX飛機今年共交付66架。

We do not expect to take delivery of any -7 MAX aircraft this year. We plan to retire a total of 29-700 aircraft this year and currently estimate will end the year with 765 aircraft in our fleet which supports our currently published flight schedules through March 8 of next year. We have additional information in our press release, so I won't reiterate all the fleet details. You will see that our contractual order book still reflects 114 MAX deliveries, including options this year, but we are providing you our best estimate for what we think we will receive this year based on recent discussions with Boeing.

我們預計今年不會接收任何-7 MAX 飛機。我們計劃今年共退役 29-700 架飛機，目前估計我們機隊中將有 765 架飛機退役，這將支持我們目前公佈的截至明年 3 月 8 日的航班時刻表。我們的新聞稿中有更多信息，因此我不會重複所有機隊細節。您會看到，我們的合同訂單仍然反映了 114 架 MAX 交付，包括今年的選項，但我們根據最近與波音的討論，為您提供我們認為今年將收到的最佳估計。

We will continue working with Boeing with the focus on this year and next. Based on our updated planning assumption that we will receive a total of 66-8 MAX aircraft this year, we have lowered our 2022 CapEx guidance to approximately $4 billion, $1 billion lower than our previous guidance that assumed the delivery of 114 MAX aircraft.

我們將繼續與波音合作，重點是今年和明年。基於我們更新的計劃假設，即今年我們將收到總共 66-8 架 MAX 飛機，我們已將 2022 年資本支出指導下調至約 40 億美元，比我們之前假設交付 114 架 MAX 飛機的指導低 10 億美元。

On our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $16.4 billion. We also recently extended our $1 billion revolving line of credit by 2 years with no change to our covenants, and it remains undrawn and fully available to us. We are in a net cash position and leverage is at a very manageable 53%. We continue to be the only U.S. airline with an investment-grade rating by all 3 rating agencies, which remains one of our key competitive advantages.

在我們的資產負債表上，我們以 164 億美元的現金和短期投資結束了本季度。我們最近還將我們的 10 億美元循環信貸額度延長了 2 年，而我們的契約沒有改變，而且它仍然未提取並且完全可供我們使用。我們處於淨現金狀況，槓桿率處於非常可控的 53%。我們仍然是唯一一家獲得所有 3 家評級機構投資級評級的美國航空公司，這仍然是我們的主要競爭優勢之一。

We have modest scheduled debt payments for the remainder of this year. However, we have been opportunistic and have repurchased some of our convertible notes, $302 million so far this year and $505 million in total with $1.8 billion still outstanding. As a reminder, the payroll support restrictions on dividends and share repurchases remain in place until the end of this quarter. As always, we will be evaluating our capital plans with our board as we began planning for 2023.

我們在今年剩下的時間裡有適度的預定債務支付。然而，我們一直在投機取巧，回購了一些可轉換票據，今年迄今為 3.02 億美元，總計 5.05 億美元，其中 18 億美元仍未償還。提醒一下，直到本季度末，對股息和股票回購的工資支持限制仍然有效。與往常一樣，在我們開始規劃 2023 年時，我們將與董事會一起評估我們的資本計劃。

Throughout the pandemic, we've been surgical in our capital allocation decisions to drive future growth and value. And in terms of priority, as we move forward, we intend to continue investing in the business as we scale for future growth. We will continue paying down debt, and we will continue to be opportunistic where we can, and we may have opportunities to reduce our leverage at a faster pace. As ever, we are committed to generating returns on capital, well in excess of our cost of capital and intend to outline our future capital plans at our Investor Day later this year. So more to come on that.

在整個大流行期間，我們一直在進行資本分配決策，以推動未來的增長和價值。就優先事項而言，隨著我們的前進，我們打算繼續投資於業務，因為我們為未來的增長而擴大規模。我們將繼續償還債務，我們將繼續盡可能地投機取巧，我們可能有機會以更快的速度降低杠桿率。與以往一樣，我們致力於創造遠遠超過我們資本成本的資本回報，並打算在今年晚些時候的投資者日概述我們未來的資本計劃。所以還有更多的事情要做。

In closing, I am very pleased with our second quarter results. As Bob mentioned, we remain on track with our plans this year, have better stability and have good momentum heading into the second half of this year. With that, I will turn it over to Andrew.

最後，我對我們第二季度的業績感到非常滿意。正如鮑勃所提到的，我們今年的計劃仍在按計劃進行，穩定性更好，進入今年下半年的勢頭良好。有了這個，我會把它交給安德魯。

Thank you, Tammy. I'll provide some additional color on our Q2 revenue trends and Q3 outlook and point you to our earnings release for more detail. Looking first at Q2, we experienced a significant change in revenue trends compared to Q1 as travel demand began to surge in March. Each month in Q2 was stronger than the prior in terms of load factor yield and revenue. June represented the strongest monthly revenue performance in our history, and we had all-time quarterly record operating revenues in Q2 of $6.7 billion, which was up 13.9% versus Q2 2019, in line with our guidance.

謝謝你，塔米。我將為我們的第二季度收入趨勢和第三季度前景提供一些額外的顏色，並為您指出我們的收益發布以獲取更多詳細信息。首先看第二季度，與第一季度相比，我們的收入趨勢發生了顯著變化，因為 3 月份旅行需求開始激增。就載客率和收入而言，第二季度的每個月都比上一季度要強。 6 月是我們歷史上最強勁的月度收入表現，我們在第二季度的營業收入為 67 億美元，創下歷史新高，與 2019 年第二季度相比增長了 13.9%，符合我們的指導。

Leisure demand was robust, and we also saw a notable improvement in business demand. Managed business revenues improved from down 36% in March to down 19% in June. While business passengers and overall managed business revenues remain below 2019 levels, managed business fares were above 2019 throughout Q2. Our Q2 loyalty program revenue also represented an all-time quarterly record, which was assisted by incremental revenue from our co-brand credit card agreement with Chase, that we secured at the end of last year.

休閒需求強勁，我們也看到商業需求顯著改善。託管業務收入從 3 月份的下降 36% 提高到 6 月份的下降 19%。雖然商務旅客和整體託管業務收入仍低於 2019 年水平，但託管商務票價在整個第二季度均高於 2019 年。我們的第二季度忠誠度計劃收入也創下了歷史季度記錄，這得益於我們在去年年底與 Chase 達成的聯合品牌信用卡協議帶來的增量收入。

Q2 retail sales, spend per cardholder and our overall portfolio size continue to grow versus 2019, and we continue to be very pleased with the performance of our loyalty program and its significant revenue contribution. Our new cities and development markets performed well, as did Hawaii, which was aided by the modifications we made to our Hawaii flight schedule and Mainland flying.

與 2019 年相比，第二季度零售額、持卡人人均消費和我們的整體投資組合規模繼續增長，我們繼續對忠誠度計劃的表現及其顯著的收入貢獻感到非常滿意。我們的新城市和開發市場表現良好，夏威夷也是如此，這得益於我們對夏威夷航班時刻表和大陸航班的修改。

Our revenue initiatives also performed well, and we launched our new fare product Wanna Get Away Plus in May. I want to congratulate our teams on a successful rollout and customers are responding well to our expanded fare offerings. All told, Q2 was strong across all geographies and metrics, and we were very pleased with the results.

我們的收入計劃也表現良好，我們在 5 月推出了新的票價產品 Wanna Get Away Plus。我要祝賀我們的團隊成功推出，客戶對我們擴展的票價產品反應良好。總而言之，第二季度在所有地區和指標上都表現強勁，我們對結果非常滿意。

As you saw in our release this morning, beginning today, any flight credit that results from a flight change or cancellation, no longer will expire in the future. Previously, Southwest flight credits had to be flown within 1 year from the date our customers originally purchased their ticket. We also are eliminating the expiration date on any flight credits that are currently valid and unexpired, including those travel credits that were issued as customers changed their travel early in the pandemic and would have expired this coming September.

正如您在我們今天早上發布的新聞稿中看到的那樣，從今天開始，任何因航班變更或取消而產生的航班積分在未來都不會過期。以前，西南航空的飛行積分必須在我們的客戶最初購買機票之日起 1 年內使用。我們還將取消任何當前有效且未過期的航班積分的到期日期，包括那些因客戶在大流行初期更改旅行而發放的旅行積分，這些積分將在今年 9 月到期。

We're famous for offering industry-leading flexibility across the board, and customers tell us it is one of the key differentiators of our brand. Repeat purchases by engaged customers is a cornerstone of our business model and our success. Our customer research and feedback tells us that flexibility has become even more important to customers over the past 2 years. Therefore, it's important to us to deepen our commitment to flexibility and the ease of doing business with Southwest Airlines. And with this move, we are clearly the industry leader and unmatched in this regard. The value proposition for our customers is greater than it has ever been.

我們以提供行業領先的靈活性而聞名，客戶告訴我們這是我們品牌的關鍵差異化因素之一。參與的客戶重複購買是我們商業模式和成功的基石。我們的客戶研究和反饋告訴我們，在過去 2 年中，靈活性對客戶來說變得更加重要。因此，加深我們對與西南航空公司開展業務的靈活性和便利性的承諾對我們來說很重要。而通過這一舉措，我們顯然是行業領導者，在這方面無可匹敵。我們對客戶的價值主張比以往任何時候都重要。

Now looking at Q3, we're coming off of June's peak performance, but current demand trends remain strong. We continue to experience strong passenger bookings yields and load factors. Leisure bookings are trending in line with seasonal expectations. Business demand is also trending well, and we expect Q3 business -- managed business revenues to improve the down 17% to 21% compared with Q3 2019. July is the second weakest month for business travel, and August is a mix of leisure and business as leisure summer demand seasonally cools off in the back half of the month. If we look at post-Labor Day bookings on hand at this point, we're encouraged by both leisure and business bookings, although it's still pretty early in the booking curve, especially for business travel.

現在來看第三季度，我們正在擺脫 6 月份的峰值表現，但目前的需求趨勢仍然強勁。我們繼續經歷強勁的乘客預訂收益率和載客率。休閒預訂的趨勢與季節性預期一致。商務需求也呈良好趨勢，我們預計第三季度業務——託管業務收入將比 2019 年第三季度下降 17% 至 21%。7 月是商務旅行第二弱的月份，8 月是休閒和商務的混合月份由於夏季休閒需求在本月下半月季節性降溫。如果我們在這一點上查看勞動節後的預訂，我們會受到休閒和商務預訂的鼓舞，儘管它仍處於預訂曲線的早期階段，尤其是對於商務旅行而言。

I would be remiss if I didn't mention that there are quantitative anecdotes from external data that indicate industry yields are softening off of the peak of June, and we are watching our bookings very closely. That said, we are overall pleased with the trends we are currently seeing and expect Q3 operating revenues to increase 8% to 12% versus Q3 2019. Included in our Q3 guidance are two headwinds and as we look at sequential revenue expectations compared with Q2.

如果我沒有提到來自外部數據的量化軼事表明行業收益率正在從 6 月的高峰期走軟，那我將是失職，我們正在密切關注我們的預訂。也就是說，我們對目前看到的趨勢總體感到滿意，並預計第三季度的營業收入將比 2019 年第三季度增長 8% 至 12%。我們第三季度的指導中包括兩個不利因素，以及與第二季度相比的連續收入預期。

First, we have a 5-point sequential headwind due to our policy change to remove expiration dates from our flight credits, which Tammy mentioned is a onetime impact. And secondly, we have a 2-point headwind due to our network restoration with focus on short-haul markets in Q3. Our network restoration is important to getting back to full utilization of our assets but is already providing benefits in terms of operational reliability. And we believe this revenue headwind is temporary until business demand recovers more fully.

首先，由於我們從飛行積分中刪除到期日期的政策變更，我們有 5 點的連續逆風，Tammy 提到這是一次性影響。其次，由於我們在第三季度專注於短途市場的網絡恢復，我們面臨 2 個不利因素。我們的網絡恢復對於恢復充分利用我們的資產很重要，但已經在運營可靠性方面提供了好處。我們認為，在業務需求更全面恢復之前，這種收入逆風是暫時的。

Our Q3 capacity is roughly flat with Q3 2019, and our Q4 capacity is expected to be down 1% to 2% versus Q4 2019. Our flight schedule is currently published through March 8. And based on current plans, January and February 2023 capacity is flat to January and February 2019.

我們的第三季度運力與 2019 年第三季度大致持平，我們的第四季度運力預計將比 2019 年第四季度下降 1% 至 2%。我們的航班時刻表目前發布至 3 月 8 日。根據目前的計劃，2023 年 1 月和 2 月的運力為持平至 2019 年 1 月和 2 月。

On a year-over-year basis, we expect Q1 2023 capacity to increase 10% versus Q1 2022. We are still early in our 2023 planning process, but that gives you an idea of where we expect to begin the year in terms of capacity. In terms of network restoration and based on our full year 2022 capacity guidance of down 4% versus 2019, we continue to expect to be roughly 85% restored by the end of this year. While capacity levels are in line with 2019 in the second half of this year, our network won't be fully restored until at least the end of 2023 as we continue to rebuild the vast majority of flights we cut during the pandemic to fund new city growth.

與去年同期相比，我們預計 2023 年第一季度的產能將比 2022 年第一季度增長 10%。我們仍處於 2023 年規劃過程的早期階段，但這讓您了解我們預計今年開始的產能.在網絡恢復方面，根據我們 2022 年全年容量比 2019 年下降 4% 的指導，我們繼續預計到今年年底將恢復大約 85%。雖然今年下半年的運力水平與 2019 年持平，但我們的網絡至少要到 2023 年底才能完全恢復，因為我們將繼續重建在大流行期間削減的絕大多數航班以資助新城市生長。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Mike.

有了這個，我會把它交給邁克。

Well, thank you, Andrew, and hello, everyone. We are in the middle of the busiest summer travel season we've experienced in several years, and we're making significant progress in delivering a stable and reliable travel experience to our customers and to our employees. Our hiring momentum began to build in the first quarter, and that's continuing. Those additional employees are beginning to impact our day-to-day operating environment as they complete their initial training and move into their respective roles.

好吧，謝謝你，安德魯，大家好。我們正處於幾年來最繁忙的夏季旅遊旺季，我們在為客戶和員工提供穩定可靠的旅行體驗方面取得了重大進展。我們的招聘勢頭在第一季度開始建立，並且還在繼續。隨著他們完成初始培訓並進入各自的崗位，這些額外的員工開始影響我們的日常運營環境。

Our new hires, combined with the scheduled reductions that we made earlier in the year as well as our ongoing operational modernization efforts, have stabilized the operation as we continue forward. From the beginning of May through the busy 4th of July travel period that I know you all heard about on the news, our cancellation rate was less than 1%, and that's the best performance for Southwest since 2017. Our on-time performance over that same period, as measured by the DOT, was 74.3%. And while that is certainly below our expectation, it's primarily an operating tempo problem.

我們的新員工，加上我們在今年早些時候進行的計劃裁員以及我們正在進行的運營現代化工作，在我們繼續前進的過程中穩定了運營。從 5 月初到 7 月 4 日繁忙的旅行期間，我知道你們都在新聞上聽說過，我們的取消率不到 1%，這是自 2017 年以來西南航空的最佳表現。我們的準時表現在那根據 DOT 衡量，同期為 74.3%。雖然這肯定低於我們的預期，但這主要是運營節奏問題。

Our tempo is being impacted by the sheer number of new hires just starting work, heavy load factors, the airport environment as well as air traffic control challenges from weather and staffing. If on-time performance was measured within 30 minutes, that 74.3% would improve to 85.3%, and that's in line with our historic pre-pandemic levels. So in practical terms, that means that in today's environment, almost 90% of our nearly 4,000 flights a day are operating just like they were pre-pandemic, but about 10% of the flights have a 15-minute delay that wasn't there in pre-pandemic periods.

我們的節奏受到剛開始工作的大量新員工、繁重的負載因素、機場環境以及天氣和人員配備帶來的空中交通管制挑戰的影響。如果在 30 分鐘內測量準時性能，那 74.3% 將提高到 85.3%，這與我們大流行前的歷史水平一致。所以實際上，這意味著在今天的環境下，我們每天近 4,000 個航班中，幾乎 90% 的航班都像大流行前一樣運行，但大約 10% 的航班有 15 分鐘的延誤，而這並不存在在大流行前時期。

So we've made solid progress towards historical operating results, and we're doing that at nearly pre-pandemic capacity levels. We've accomplished all of that by balancing our flight schedules with staffing. Our staffing -- our active staffing is up over 7,000 employees since the end of last year, and we surpassed 2019 levels of active staffing in May. About 75% of this hiring was in our airport operations and about 20% were in flight crews.

因此，我們在實現歷史運營業績方面取得了堅實的進展，而且我們正在以接近大流行前的能力水平做到這一點。通過平衡我們的航班時刻表和人員配備，我們已經完成了所有這些工作。我們的人員配備——自去年年底以來，我們的活躍員工人數增加了 7,000 多名，我們在 5 月份超過了 2019 年的活躍員工水平。大約 75% 的招聘是在我們的機場運營中，大約 20% 是在飛行機組人員中。

We're going to continue hiring. It's imperative that we remain adequately staffed to support both our customers and our employees. We're focused on improving the experience of our flight crews in terms of reroutes and deadheads and any unplanned overnight and extra flying. And finally, we've improved the quality of the schedule for our operation with more depth and more nonstop flights. We've added short-haul flights in the business-oriented markets. That provides us more options when we have weather or ATC delays. And we also had more flying between our crew bases. And all of those things and all of those changes support a more stable operational environment.

我們將繼續招聘。我們必須保持充足的人員來支持我們的客戶和員工。我們專注於改善我們的機組人員在改航和空頭以及任何計劃外的夜間飛行和額外飛行方面的體驗。最後，我們通過更深入和更多的直飛航班提高了運營計劃的質量。我們在面向商務的市場中增加了短途航班。當我們遇到天氣或 ATC 延誤時，這為我們提供了更多選擇。而且我們的機組人員基地之間也有更多的飛行。所有這些事情和所有這些變化都支持更穩定的運營環境。

As we continue our network restoration, I believe that our operational performance will continue to improve. I believe that those improvements, combined with our other operational initiatives, are going to provide the foundation to recapture our overall efficiency and return to historic levels of productivity.

隨著我們繼續進行網絡恢復，我相信我們的運營績效將繼續改善。我相信，這些改進與我們的其他運營舉措相結合，將為重新獲得我們的整體效率並恢復到歷史生產力水平奠定基礎。

And just a couple more thoughts on hiring and training. As travel demand began to rebound last year, our first step was to rebuild and restart our hiring machine, and we had staffing shortages and bottlenecks throughout the organization from recruiters to the front line to supporting positions. We've been running at a record pace this year. And from a company-wide perspective, we've augmented our staffing in most of the critical areas, and that's leaving just our pilot hiring and training as the pacing factor for the company as we move forward. So as Bob mentioned, we still expect to add over 10,000 new employees this year, net of attrition. And we're now at a point where we can begin to transition those hiring efforts into more targeted and focused locations and groups where our network restoration has occurred. The majority of these hires will be to cover our published schedules and capacity plans this year, but we also intend to build some buffer so that we're ready to resume growth in the near future, and then get ahead of our spring and summer of 2023 staffing needs with a more seasoned workforce.

還有一些關於招聘和培訓的想法。隨著去年旅行需求開始反彈，我們的第一步是重建並重新啟動我們的招聘機器，從招聘人員到前線再到支持職位，整個組織都存在人員短缺和瓶頸。今年我們一直在以創紀錄的速度奔跑。從全公司的角度來看，我們已經在大多數關鍵領域增加了人員配置，這使得我們的飛行員招聘和培訓成為公司前進的步伐因素。因此，正如 Bob 提到的，我們仍然預計今年將增加 10,000 多名新員工（扣除減員）。我們現在可以開始將這些招聘工作轉移到更有針對性和重點的地點和群體中，我們的網絡恢復已經發生。這些員工中的大部分將用於支付我們今年公佈的時間表和產能計劃，但我們也打算建立一些緩衝，以便我們準備在不久的將來恢復增長，然後在我們的春季和夏季之前提前2023 年的人員配備需要經驗更豐富的員工隊伍。

We're still being impacted by COVID illnesses and a higher level of inactive employees. Our sick rates are still elevated in some of our work groups. So we believe that it's just prudent to build some staffing cushion and buffer in the aviation environment that we all find ourselves in. And none of that is unique to Southwest. It's a work in progress and getting back to historical levels of productivity by the end of next year remains 1 of our top priorities.

我們仍然受到 COVID 疾病和更多不活躍員工的影響。在我們的一些工作組中，我們的患病率仍然很高。因此，我們認為，在我們都發現自己所處的航空環境中建立一些人員配置緩沖和緩衝只是謹慎的做法。而這一切都不是西南航空獨有的。這是一項正在進行的工作，到明年年底恢復到歷史水平的生產力仍然是我們的首要任務之一。

So on a separate note, I wasn't able to be at our grand opening of our new 130,000 square foot aircraft maintenance hangar in Denver during the second quarter, and that's going to be very helpful to the operation. With the addition of Denver, we now have 7 Hanger locations: Dallas, Houston and Phoenix, Chicago, Atlanta, Orlando and now Denver. Our tech up team does a tremendous job, and I want to thank them for managing through a changing flight schedule in a fleet plan over the past several years.

因此，單獨說明一下，我無法在第二季度參加我們在丹佛新的 130,000 平方英尺飛機維修機庫的盛大開幕式，這將對運營非常有幫助。隨著丹佛的加入，我們現在有 7 個衣架地點：達拉斯、休斯頓和鳳凰城、芝加哥、亞特蘭大、奧蘭多和現在的丹佛。我們的技術升級團隊做得非常出色，我要感謝他們在過去幾年中通過機隊計劃中不斷變化的航班時刻表進行管理。

And last, but certainly not least, our people have solidly restored our customer service advantage. Year-to-date through May, Southwest is back in the top spot for customer satisfaction for the DOT's air travel consumer report and my sincere thanks to all of our employees, especially all those on the front line that are taking care of our customers and of each other. They are simply the best, and I have my deepest respect and admiration.

最後但同樣重要的是，我們的員工已經穩固地恢復了我們的客戶服務優勢。年初至今，截至 5 月，西南航空在 DOT 的航空旅行消費者報告中再次位居客戶滿意度榜首，我衷心感謝我們所有的員工，尤其是所有在前線照顧我們的客戶和彼此的。他們簡直是最好的，我有最深的敬意和欽佩。

So with that, I'll turn it back over to Ryan.

因此，我將把它交給瑞安。

Thank you, Mike. We have analysts queued up for questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator, please go ahead and begin our analyst Q&A.

謝謝你，邁克。我們讓分析師排隊等待提問。 （操作員說明）操作員，請繼續，開始我們的分析師問答。

(Operator Instructions) The first question will come from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Just in terms of the MAX delays here. I know you're talking about really working on 1 quarter at a time as you plan 2023. But was curious if the delays -- I know pilot hiring, you've kind of talked about being the long pole in the tent. But do the delays that you're seeing today kind of give you pause about your ability to kind of plan in 2023 capacity?

就這裡的 MAX 延遲而言。我知道你說的是按照你計劃 2023 年的計劃，一次只工作一個季度。但我很好奇是否會出現延誤——我知道飛行員招聘，你有點說要成為帳篷裡的長桿。但是，您今天看到的延遲是否讓您對您在 2023 年的計劃能力有所猶豫？

Savi, it's Bob, and I'll let Tammy and Mike jump in. Yes, obviously, the change is a big one from 114 to 66 in 2022 here. But Boeing and GE and others are suffering supply chain issues just like everybody. So I'm not sure that it is completely unexpected. The good thing is if you look in through our published schedules through March, which I think are through March 8 right now, because we did have excess aircraft that we've talked to you about, that reduction doesn't compromise those schedules. So we'll be able to fly the schedules as planned, which is good news for our customers, good news for our employees. It's a big number though. So if you think about how long is it going to take to recover the catch up in terms of the delivery plan, I suspect -- again, this is all kind of guess, we're going to go schedule-to-schedule, quarter-to-quarter. But it feels like it will take '23, could leak into '24 in terms of how long it takes to catch back up to the fleet, the original contractual fleet delivery plan.

Savi，我是 Bob，我會讓 Tammy 和 Mike 加入。是的，很明顯，2022 年從 114 到 66 的變化很大。但波音、通用電氣和其他公司和所有人一樣都在遭受供應鏈問題。所以我不確定這完全出乎意料。好消息是，如果您查看我們發布的到 3 月的時間表，我認為現在是到 3 月 8 日，因為我們確實有多餘的飛機，我們已經與您討論過，這種減少不會影響這些時間表。因此，我們將能夠按計劃飛行，這對我們的客戶來說是個好消息，對我們的員工來說也是個好消息。不過，這是一個很大的數字。因此，如果您考慮在交付計劃方面需要多長時間才能恢復追趕，我懷疑--再次，這都是猜測，我們將按計劃進行，按季度進行- 到季度。但感覺需要 23 年，可能會洩漏到 24 年，以趕上車隊，原始合同車隊交付計劃需要多長時間。

Now to your question, which is well what about constraints, which has been pilot hiring? If you end up -- there's, I think, a chance that if you leak into -- if this continues to delay into late '23, you could get to the point where the constraint becomes actually the aircraft deliveries versus pilots. So I think that would be late in '23 and not earlier. So again, we're just -- you don't -- it's all speculation today. But for now, we'll stay really close with Boeing, and that's late in the year '23. So we'll keep after our pilot hiring plan.

現在問你的問題，約束條件是什麼，一直是試點招聘？如果你最終 - 我認為，如果你洩漏到 - 如果這繼續延遲到 23 年末，你可能會達到限制實際上變成飛機交付與飛行員的地步。所以我認為那會在 23 年晚些時候而不是更早。再說一次，我們只是 - 你沒有 - 今天都是猜測。但就目前而言，我們將與波音保持密切聯繫，那是在 23 年末。因此，我們將繼續執行我們的試點招聘計劃。

That's helpful. And if I might, on that pilot hiring topic. Just I think you were saying the last quarter that you're kind of hiring or training around just over 1,000 this year. Is the -- you're getting capacity that you can kind of do with the hiring and training for maybe 2,300 next year. Is that -- I know that's the top end. Is that what you think you're going to need to do? Or how should we think about pilot hiring and training kind of costs and levels as we -- as you kind of move through the second half of this year and into next year?

這很有幫助。如果可以的話，關於飛行員招聘的話題。只是我認為你在上個季度說你今年招聘或培訓的人數剛剛超過 1,000 人。是 - 你獲得的能力可以通過明年的招聘和培訓來完成，可能有 2,300 人。是嗎 - 我知道這是最高端。這是你認為你需要做的嗎？或者我們應該如何考慮飛行員招聘和培訓的成本和水平，因為您將在今年下半年進入明年？

Yes, we'll hire -- this doesn't change -- if you're tying that to the Boeing issue, it doesn't change that at all. So yes, we're looking to hire 1,000 to 1,100 this year. We're roughly on plan there. I'm very proud of everybody. We -- for a while, we told you, we were short flight instructors. We've hired all of our flight instructors as of, I think, May. So the training, the SIMs, it's all running at full capacity. I think the plan is to hire about 2,200 pilots next year. So that will remain our plan because it's full capacity, and then we will get these aircraft even if they're slightly delayed as we talked about in like '23. So this doesn't change our pilot hiring plan.

是的，我們會招聘——這不會改變——如果你把它與波音問題聯繫起來，它根本不會改變。所以是的，我們希望今年招聘 1,000 到 1,100 人。我們在那里大致按計劃進行。我為每個人感到非常自豪。我們——有一段時間，我們告訴過你，我們是短途飛行教官。我們已經聘請了我們所有的飛行教官，我想，五月。因此，培訓、SIM 卡都在滿負荷運行。我認為計劃是明年僱用大約 2,200 名飛行員。因此，這仍將是我們的計劃，因為它已滿負荷運行，然後我們將獲得這些飛機，即使它們像我們在 23 年談到的那樣稍微延遲。所以這不會改變我們的試點招聘計劃。

And the next question is from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jamie Baker。

This kind of builds on Savi's question. I mean given the Boeing issue, it doesn't seem like Southwest will ever catch up to where you would have been in terms of overall size, had COVID not occurred. So if we think about 2025, I don't see a path where Boeing could accelerate to make up for lost time. So it seems inevitable that you'll be smaller in '25 than you once planned, smaller in 2026 than you once planned and so forth. If you agree with this, why not take more substantive steps to shed surplus costs now instead of just waiting for capacity to accelerate from here?

這種建立在 Savi 的問題上。我的意思是考慮到波音的問題，如果沒有發生 COVID，西南航空的整體規模似乎永遠不會趕上你的水平。因此，如果我們考慮到 2025 年，我認為波音公司無法加速以彌補失去的時間。因此，您在 25 年的體型比以前計劃的要小，到 2026 年的體型比以前計劃的要小，這似乎是不可避免的，依此類推。如果您同意這一點，為什麼不立即採取更實質性的措施來削減剩餘成本，而不是等待產能從這裡加速增長呢？

Jamie, this is Mike. Just maybe one way to kind of think about the Boeing delays as I've been thinking about them, there are production issues that are supply chain related then there are delivery issues that are based on a certification issue with the MAX 7. So Boeing has produced through the production line, MAX 7s are just not able to deliver them yet. So I think that you will find a -- when the MAX 7 is certified, we'll be able to catch that up quickly in 2023. And then we're just struggling with production delays that aren't long, they're probably no more than a month or so as they deal with their supply chain. And I think that, that will get better in 2023 as compared to where it is today.

傑米，這是邁克。就像我一直在考慮的那樣，也許只是考慮波音延誤的一種方式，有與供應鏈相關的生產問題，然後有基於 MAX 7 認證問題的交付問題。所以波音有通過生產線生產，MAX 7s 只是還不能交付。所以我認為你會發現——當 MAX 7 獲得認證時，我們將能夠在 2023 年迅速趕上它。然後我們只是在為不長的生產延遲而苦苦掙扎，他們可能他們處理供應鏈的時間不超過一個月左右。我認為，與今天相比，2023 年情況會好轉。

And Jamie, Tammy here. Just to add on to Mike's comments back to your question on the cost side. We -- Bob has already taken you through the pilot hiring, but we do intend to optimize here as we move forward best, we can on the best -- based on the best information that we have from Boeing, and we'll continue to hire pilots, but moderate in other groups around what our best guess is for capacity as we close out this year and into next year. So we've kicked off our planning efforts for next year. So obviously, all the information that we shared with you today will be inputs into that. And clearly, we want to come up with a unit cost performance that makes sense relative to the capacity that we're flying.

還有傑米，塔米在這裡。只是為了補充邁克對成本方面的問題的評論。我們——鮑勃已經帶你完成了試點招聘，但我們確實打算在這裡優化，因為我們向前邁進，我們可以做到最好——基於我們從波音公司獲得的最佳信息，我們將繼續僱用飛行員，但在我們今年和明年結束時，圍繞我們對容量的最佳猜測，在其他群體中保持溫和。所以我們已經開始了明年的計劃工作。很明顯，我們今天與您分享的所有信息都將成為其中的輸入。顯然，我們希望提出一個相對於我們正在飛行的容量有意義的單位成本性能。

Yes. Jamie, we have plenty of time -- if you're thinking about '24, '25, we have plenty of time to adjust along the way here if things change. We just now -- and I'm very proud of this, we just now caught our 2019 capacity here and the third quarter will be about flat. And we just now caught our 2019 employees. We're slightly over about 1,600 here at the same time. So we've just caught up to 2019 at this point. And as Tammy said, we'll begin to moderate our hiring really ex pilots here in the back half of the year. And our goals for '23 haven't changed, which is that now at some point, you're just running it all this to get stable. Now we really begin to pivot to moderate the hiring, begin to wring out inefficiencies and get to our goal that we've talked about at Investor Day, which is get back to our historic efficiencies by the end of next year.

是的。傑米，我們有足夠的時間——如果你在考慮 24 年、25 年，如果事情發生變化，我們有足夠的時間來調整。我們剛剛——我為此感到非常自豪，我們剛剛在這裡獲得了 2019 年的產能，第三季度將基本持平。我們剛剛抓住了我們 2019 年的員工。同時，我們這裡的人數略高於 1,600 人。因此，此時我們剛剛趕上了 2019 年。正如塔米所說，我們將在今年下半年開始緩和招聘真正的前飛行員。我們 23 年的目標沒有改變，也就是說，現在在某個時候，你只是為了穩定而運行這一切。現在，我們真正開始轉向緩和招聘，開始消除效率低下的問題，並實現我們在投資者日談到的目標，即到明年年底恢復到我們的歷史效率。

Okay. Very helpful. I appreciate you jumping in. And just as a follow-up on the pilots, raising the 65-year rule, does it really seem to have any union traction to speak of. And obviously, for airlines with multiple fleet types, at a nonstarter because of the training costs that it would drive. But with only a single fleet type, does this imply Southwest might be in favor of relaxing the rule?

好的。非常有幫助。我很感激你的加入。作為飛行員的後續行動，提出了 65 年的規則，它似乎真的有任何工會的牽引力可言。顯然，對於擁有多種機隊類型的航空公司來說，由於培訓成本高昂，因此一發不可收拾。但是只有一種機隊類型，這是否意味著西南航空可能會支持放寬規則？

Jamie, it would be basically what our pilot you would want. We're not going to have an opinion on that. And at this point in time, I don't think that there's much energy around us doing that at all.

傑米，這基本上就是你想要的我們的飛行員。我們不會對此發表意見。在這個時間點上，我認為我們周圍根本沒有太多的能量來做這件事。

Okay. So totally agree. I was just curious as a single fleet operator.

好的。所以完全同意。作為一個單一的車隊運營商，我只是好奇。

And the next question is from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

I appreciate it. Just on the flight credits, is there any way you can help us think about what a clean sequential underlying revenue would look like kind of 2Q to 3Q, excluding the credits in both periods. This is not just a Southwest issue, but you've brought it up clearly, and I'm wondering, can you disclose what credits were like as a percentage of revenue in the 2Q? And do you expect that to pick back up in the fourth quarter?

我很感激。就飛行積分而言，您有什麼方法可以幫助我們思考 2Q 到 3Q 的干淨的連續基礎收入是什麼樣的，不包括兩個時期的積分。這不僅是西南航空的問題，而且您已經清楚地提出來了，我想知道，您能否透露第二季度的信用額佔收入的百分比？您是否預計這會在第四季度回升？

Yes, Duane, I'll take that. I hope you're doing well. So well, first of all, as you're aware, we don't disclose our breakage revenue. But even during the pandemic when it's been elevated, it still represents a really small percentage of overall revenue. So in terms of the underlying trends, we expect the ongoing impact to total operating revenue beyond third quarter to be immaterial, and it shouldn't be a material driver of sequential trends. And just to note on the second quarter, even without the elevated breakage revenue in second quarter, we would have still had record revenues and the underlying business trends were very strong. So -- but in terms of what is your starting point in terms of our core business trends, it would be the results that we reported to you this morning in terms of revenue for second quarter up almost 14%. So just in terms of trying to help you sort through the trends. So again, the third quarter impact of $250 million to $300 million, you really should look at that as kind of a onetime impact here related to the policy change.

是的，杜安，我會接受的。我希望你一切都好。好吧，首先，正如您所知，我們不披露我們的破損收入。但即使在大流行期間它被抬高，它仍然只佔總收入的一小部分。因此，就潛在趨勢而言，我們預計第三季度以後對總營業收入的持續影響並不重要，也不應該成為連續趨勢的重要驅動因素。就第二季度而言，即使沒有第二季度的破損收入增加，我們仍然會擁有創紀錄的收入，並且潛在的業務趨勢非常強勁。所以 - 但就我們核心業務趨勢的起點而言，這將是我們今天早上向您報告的第二季度收入增長近 14% 的結果。因此，就試圖幫助您對趨勢進行分類而言。同樣，第三季度的影響為 2.5 億美元至 3 億美元，您真的應該將其視為與政策變化相關的一次性影響。

And Duane, you want to -- I want to add sort of 50,000 feet on this because there's change in flight credits is a big deal. Obviously, it's a terrific consumer benefit -- customer benefit, and it matches perfectly with Bags fly free, no change fees. Rapid Rewards points that do not expire, all the things that you know about that separate Southwest Airlines. So it's a terrific added benefit. And I'm absolutely confident it's going to win more customers and improve customer loyalty and retention, just like bags fly free did for us.

杜安，你想——我想在這上面增加 50,000 英尺，因為飛行積分的變化很重要。顯然，這是一項了不起的消費者利益——客戶利益，它與 Bags fly free 完美匹配，無需更改費用。永不過期的快速獎勵積分，您所知道的有關單獨西南航空公司的所有信息。所以這是一個了不起的附加好處。而且我絕對有信心它將贏得更多客戶並提高客戶忠誠度和保留率，就像袋子免費為我們所做的那樣。

On the timing side, we were up against -- you had a big pile of COVID travel funds from, especially that early period of COVID, where there were so many changes that were set to fire in September, and we felt like we needed to address that, which is a big piece of the why now and the timing. On the cost, the -- this onetime isolated to the third quarter $250 million to $300 million. As Tammy mentioned, we think it's immaterial beyond that. That's really primarily the revenue impact and timing of recognizing the revenue/breakage on these COVID funds. Ultimately, they're going to be used. They could break. It's going to come back to you. It's just going to come back to you over time. So it's, to me, a lot of this is a timing issue, but it's the right thing to do. If it's terrifically with our brand. Again, it's a onetime third quarter thing here. And I'm convinced, absolutely like bags fly free that it's going to be not just a customer positive, it's going to be a financial and shareholder positive as well. We win more customers, and we retain more customers.

在時間方面，我們遇到了挑戰——你有一大堆 COVID 旅游資金來自，尤其是 COVID 的早期階段，9 月份發生了很多變化，我們覺得我們需要解決這個問題，這是為什麼現在和時機的重要組成部分。在成本方面，這一次是第三季度的 2.5 億至 3 億美元。正如 Tammy 所提到的，我們認為除此之外它無關緊要。這實際上主要是確認這些 COVID 基金的收入/破損的收入影響和時機。最終，它們將被使用。他們可以打破。它會回到你身邊。隨著時間的推移，它會回到你身邊。所以，對我來說，這在很大程度上是一個時間問題，但這是正確的做法。如果我們的品牌非常好。同樣，這是一次第三季度的事情。而且我相信，絕對就像包包自由飛行一樣，它不僅對客戶有利，而且對財務和股東也有利。我們贏得了更多的客戶，我們也留住了更多的客戶。

And then just a quick follow-up, and I apologize if you mentioned it already, but your '22 CapEx is a bit lower. Do you see that as a shift into '23? Or could '23 potentially be lower as well?

然後只是快速跟進，如果您已經提到它，我深表歉意，但您的 '22 資本支出有點低。你認為這是向 23 年的轉變嗎？或者 '23 也可能更低？

Yes, Duane, it is a shift into next year. Now hopefully, we'll catch up here on the Boeing deliveries, but if those shift a bit into 2024, then we'd see some shifting into 2024 on the CapEx side as well.

是的，杜安，這是明年的轉變。現在，希望我們能趕上波音的交付，但如果這些交付稍微轉移到 2024 年，那麼我們也會看到資本支出方面的一些轉移到 2024 年。

And the next question is from Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Didora。

If delivery program keeps getting pushed out and sort of limits your ability to fly your anticipated schedule, what types of levers do you have in order to help kind of maintain your longer-term cost structure that you outlined at Investor Day. And then just kind of heading into 2023, I know it's early, but anything out there that would not drive 2023 CASM below 2022?

如果交付計劃不斷被推遲並限制了您完成預期時間表的能力，那麼您有哪些類型的槓桿來幫助維持您在投資者日概述的長期成本結構。然後只是進入 2023 年，我知道現在還為時過早，但有什麼東西不會將 2023 年 CASM 推到 2022 年以下嗎？

Yes. On -- certainly, our goal for next year remains to have CASM-X down from this year's level. So we haven't given up on that goal. Obviously, capacity is an input to all of that, as you're well aware. But going back to our discussion a little bit earlier, we -- as we move forward, we will work to optimize our staffing around our expected capacity plans. So again, just trying to get back to our historical efficiency level. So we're very focused on getting back to our historical efficiency, and we've got a lot of initiatives underway to help improve efficiencies. And those range from -- over the longer term, anything from self-service for our customers, airport modernization, other efforts along those lines.

是的。開——當然，我們明年的目標仍然是讓 CASM-X 低於今年的水平。所以我們沒有放棄這個目標。顯然，容量是所有這些的輸入，正如您所知道的那樣。但是回到我們之前的討論，我們 - 隨著我們的前進，我們將努力圍繞我們預期的產能計劃優化我們的人員配置。再說一次，只是試圖回到我們的歷史效率水平。因此，我們非常專注於恢復我們的歷史效率，並且我們正在採取許多舉措來幫助提高效率。從長遠來看，這些範圍包括為我們的客戶提供自助服務、機場現代化以及其他類似的努力。

So I think the -- and then, of course, just the continued restoration of the network. So we'll -- even if we have to grow at a lower rate than maybe we were otherwise hoping for, we should be able to continue to restore our network, which will help us get back to those historical efficiency levels. So as of June, we were probably about 80% restored, and we expect to be about 85% restored by the end of this year, and we're going to work really hard to be fully restored by next year, which, of course, would give us operating leverage and help our cost performance next year.

所以我認為——然後，當然，只是繼續恢復網絡。因此，即使我們必須以低於預期的速度增長，我們也應該能夠繼續恢復我們的網絡，這將幫助我們回到那些歷史效率水平。所以截至 6 月，我們大概已經恢復了 80%，我們預計到今年年底將恢復 85%，我們將非常努力地在明年完全恢復，當然， ，將為我們提供運營槓桿並幫助我們明年的成本績效。

And second question just for Bob. I know your prepared remarks, you said that you weren't seeing any material impacts to your business, which leads me to believe you're maybe seeing some anomalies out there. Is there anything that you're keenly focused on watching right now? Maybe are you seeing any discrepancies among your different income cohorts and the way they book or travel. Anything you want to call out there?

第二個問題只針對鮑勃。我知道你準備好的言論，你說你沒有看到對你的業務有任何實質性影響，這讓我相信你可能會看到一些異常情況。你現在有什麼特別關注的嗎？也許您是否看到不同收入群體之間的差異以及他們預訂或旅行的方式。你有什麼想喊的嗎？

No. And I'll also defer to the master here, Andrew, to add a whole lot of color, but it's just -- it's nothing specific because it's more the surrounding data. So if you look at our booking strength, it continues. I mean obviously, June was a peak as it is typically across the -- sequentially across the year, but the booking strength is there. You've got strength post-Labor Day. It's really just looking at the other factors. So as I mentioned, business and consumer sentiment is down. You've seen some peaks here, rates are rising, just all the things that typically lead you to expect a bit of a slowdown. So really nothing more than that color because we aren't seeing it in our bookings yet. It's just to call out. And Andrew, please add color to that.

不，我也會聽從這裡的主人，安德魯，添加很多顏色，但這只是 - 它沒有什麼具體的，因為它更多的是周圍的數據。因此，如果您查看我們的預訂實力，它會繼續。我的意思是，顯然，六月是一個高峰，因為它通常貫穿全年 - 但預訂強度在那裡。勞動節後你有力量。這真的只是在看其他因素。正如我所提到的，商業和消費者信心下降。您已經在這裡看到了一些高峰，利率正在上升，所有這些通常都會導致您預期會出現一些放緩。所以真的只是那種顏色，因為我們還沒有在我們的預訂中看到它。就是要叫出來。安德魯，請為此添加顏色。

I guess I'd add to that, Bob, that we see still substantial demand, substantial visits to the website, substantial volumes, but we saw a peak of yields in June. And all the industry data we look at whether that's ARC data, whether that's credit card data, whether that's Adobe or Hopper or CPI, they all point to that same kind of peak in June. And so loads are fine and yields are up generously on a year over 3-year basis, they're not up as much as June. That's all. So it's kind of sequentially softened a little bit, but at a level that's still well above 2019 levels. So that gives us a lot of encouragement going forward.

鮑勃，我想我還要補充一點，我們仍然看到大量需求，大量訪問網站，大量交易，但我們看到了 6 月份的產量峰值。我們查看的所有行業數據，無論是 ARC 數據，信用卡數據，Adobe、Hopper 還是 CPI，它們都指向 6 月份的同一種峰值。因此，負載很好，收益率在 3 年以上的一年中大幅上升，但沒有 6 月份那麼高。就這樣。所以它有點順序軟化了一點，但仍遠高於 2019 年的水平。所以這給了我們很多前進的動力。

We're also rotating out of a high leisure period into a high business period. And so you expect that business to hold up more of your capacity, so to speak, and so that will be the big question. We've obviously guided to a sequential 5-point improvement in managed business into Q3 and how that evolves through Q3, that's the prime business travel season. It's kind of back half of August through October. If we see good improvement there, I think that will be really meaningful for trends.

我們也正在從高休閒期轉入高商業期。因此，可以這麼說，您希望該業務能夠支持您更多的能力，這將是一個大問題。我們顯然已經引導到第三季度管理業務連續 5 個點的改進，以及在第三季度的演變，這是主要的商務旅行季節。大約是八月下旬到十月。如果我們在那裡看到良好的改進，我認為這對趨勢非常有意義。

Well, you take all that -- yes, thank you. You take all of that into context, we got like -- I always want to guide appropriately. And so you take all that into account as you think about your guidance as well.

好吧，你接受所有這些 - 是的，謝謝。你把所有這些都放在上下文中，我們得到了——我總是想適當地指導。所以當你考慮你的指導時，你也會考慮到所有這些。

Next question is from David Vernon from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

Andrew, I wanted to ask you about the headwind you're expecting from the return of short-haul business flying that 200 basis points, whatever you're calling out there. When you think about the driver of that, is that just in some of these high-density markets you're going to be flying at a lower load factor? Or I'm trying to kind of square that, call out, you're making from a headwind perspective with the bullishness in terms of recovery in managed business travel.

安德魯，我想問你關於短途業務回歸 200 個基點所帶來的阻力，無論你在哪裡打電話。當您考慮其驅動因素時，是否僅在其中一些高密度市場中您將以較低的負載率飛行？或者我正試圖解決這個問題，大聲疾呼，你從逆風的角度來看，對管理的商務旅行複甦的樂觀態度。

So I'll start off, but we put that in there. The research and development teams from network planning worked with Mike's research and development teams from operations planning, and we looked at what would be the way to improve the operability of our summer into fall schedules. And so we jointly evaluated innumerable schedule concepts, and we came up with this return of some specific short haul for profitability Mike talked about more crew flying between crew bases, more crew-based originators from like the low 30% to the high 38%. And then some -- look at midday peaking that was stressful and ground operations, all that together made for a more operable summer.

所以我會開始，但我們把它放在那裡。網絡規劃的研發團隊與 Mike 的運營規劃研發團隊合作，我們研究瞭如何提高夏季到秋季時間表的可操作性。因此，我們共同評估了無數的時間表概念，我們想出了一些特定的短途航線的盈利能力，邁克談到了更多的機組人員在機組基地之間飛行，更多基於機組的創始者從低 30% 到高 38%。然後是一些 - 看看中午的高峰期壓力和地面操作，所有這些共同造就了一個更可操作的夏天。

Now because short haul is really powered by business travel, return of business travel will make the kind of revenue impact of that mitigated. And so corporate travel did kind of you see through ARC data, a plateau on a volume basis in mid-June. So as we come out of summer, people burn off their PTO. They had accumulated in COVID and get back on the road. You would expect that short haul that was put there to help recoverability would get additional travel from corporate travelers. And so that shows up either yield or load factor. It's just insufficient demand for that level of short-haul capacity. In some months, you may see the yield was higher and low was lowered vice versa. It just shows you there is insufficient business demand for that level of short haul at this point in time, but as we go into a more heavy business travel season that can be mitigated through the return of business travel.

現在，由於短途旅行真正由商務旅行提供動力，商務旅行的回歸將使這種收入影響得到緩解。因此，商務旅行確實讓您通過 ARC 數據看到了 6 月中旬的數量上的高原。因此，當我們從夏天結束時，人們會燒掉他們的 PTO。他們已經在 COVID 中積累並重新上路。您會期望為幫助可恢復性而設置的短途旅行將獲得商務旅行者的額外旅行。所以這顯示了產量或負載因子。只是對這種水平的短途運力的需求不足。在某些月份，您可能會看到收益率較高，而收益率較低，反之亦然。它只是向您表明，此時該級別的短途旅行的業務需求不足，但隨著我們進入一個更加繁忙的商務旅行季節，可以通過商務旅行的回歸來緩解這種情況。

I think I understand the driver of putting it in there. When you think about the go forward and the look ahead, right, if we do end up in a softer period, like -- can you talk us through how you think about when the decision to keep that capacity up maybe isn't the right one? Or how flexible are you on that in terms of the sensitivity to that demand recovery?

我想我理解把它放在那裡的驅動程序。當您考慮前進和展望時，對，如果我們確實最終進入了一個較軟的時期，例如-您能否告訴我們您如何看待保持這種能力的決定何時可能是不正確的一？或者就需求復甦的敏感性而言，您對此有多靈活？

Besides demand recovery, the second thing that will aided is a network restoration. You can think of this short haul being restored and longer hauls not being restored creates an imbalance network. And so even though we are predominantly a point-to-point carrier, there's many situations where you have a higher flow content. And if you look at our short haul is on average, besides having higher business content, they have higher flow content. And so by not having the kind of medium and longer hauls in that same geography, we find the short hauls, you're starving them with the flow they normally have. So as we go through and add in medium and long hauls as pilot supply allows, that will then kind of help balance the system and allow those flights to be fuller, if not with as much business travel 1 might imagine, at least more flow, which right now we're seeing is carrying a pretty high yield.

除了需求恢復之外，第二個有幫助的是網絡恢復。您可以認為這種短距離正在恢復，而較長距離未恢復會造成不平衡網絡。因此，即使我們主要是點對點運營商，但在很多情況下，您的流量內容更高。如果你看我們的短途平均來說，除了有更高的業務內容外，他們還有更高的流量內容。因此，由於在同一個地理區域沒有那種中長距離，我們發現短距離，你正在用他們通常擁有的流量來挨餓。因此，當我們通過並在飛行員供應允許的情況下增加中長途航班時，這將有助於平衡系統並讓這些航班更加充實，如果不是像 1 想像的那樣多的商務旅行，至少會有更多的流量，現在我們看到的產量很高。

And the next question is from Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So I'm sorry, I just want to go back to this breakage issue to make sure I understand it. So if we're thinking about fourth quarter revenue, should we just assume normal seasonality from this lower third quarter run rate? Or do we take the third quarter, add back $250 million to $300 million and then assume normal seasonality from that? I'm just trying to understand what this could mean for fourth quarter.

所以我很抱歉，我只想回到這個破損問題，以確保我理解它。因此，如果我們考慮第四季度的收入，我們是否應該從第三季度較低的運行率假設正常的季節性？或者我們是否在第三季度將 2.5 億美元加回 3 億美元，然後從中假設正常的季節性？我只是想了解這對第四季度意味著什麼。

You would just take our reported results and adjust for a normal sequential trending from what we reported to you or what our guidance is for third quarter. So you just simply take out that onetime impact.

您只需獲取我們報告的結果，並根據我們向您報告的內容或我們對第三季度的指導調整正常的連續趨勢。因此，您只需消除一次性影響即可。

And then just maybe just to liberate, Tammy, I mean as those funds that we've now extended are used over time, that's going to play out over a period. That's not a -- that's going to play out over a period of time as their use and revenue is recognized.

然後也許只是為了解放，塔米，我的意思是，隨著我們現在擴展的那些資金隨著時間的推移而使用，這將在一段時間內發揮作用。這不是——這將在一段時間內發揮作用，因為它們的使用和收入得到確認。

That's right. It's just simply the timing of the revenue recognition as we move forward. And then the -- our trends as we go forward should really revert back closer to pre-pandemic levels in terms of the percentage of breakage to revenue.

這是正確的。這只是我們前進的收入確認時間。然後 - 我們前進的趨勢應該真正恢復到接近大流行前的水平，就破損佔收入的百分比而言。

So this would have been -- if I'm thinking about this, this would have been the final sort of big quarter of breakage and then you would have seen the drop-off in fourth quarter had you not made this change. You're making this change, so you see the drop-off in breakers starting this quarter and then you sort of go normal from here. Is that right?

所以這本來是 - 如果我正在考慮這個，這將是最後一個大季度的破損，如果你沒有做出這個改變，你會看到第四季度的下降。你正在做這個改變，所以你看到從本季度開始的斷路器數量下降，然後你從這裡開始恢復正常。那正確嗎？

Yes, I think that's a fair way to look at it.

是的，我認為這是一個公平的看待它的方式。

That's very fair.

這很公平。

Okay. And then just lastly, I know you've got the 10% plan for January, February next year. Would you think or hope that full year '23 more or less than that 10% non-capacity?

好的。最後，我知道你已經制定了明年 1 月、2 月的 10% 計劃。您認為或希望 23 年全年的非產能多或少 10%？

I think to start with, the Jan-Feb is flat to 2019. We're looking at the first quarter being up 10%. So once we kind of get March out there, you'll see the first quarter versus '22 being up 10%. And so that's a good starting point. I don't want to get over my skis with back half of the year, as Bob mentioned, you have both either pilots or aircraft could become a constraining element, but at least to start the year through at least to begin of the summer, I think it's a good place to start.

我認為首先，1 月至 2 月與 2019 年持平。我們預計第一季度將增長 10%。因此，一旦我們將 3 月推出，您會看到第一季度與 22 年相比增長了 10%。所以這是一個很好的起點。正如鮑勃所說，我不想在下半年度過我的滑雪板，因為飛行員或飛機都可能成為限制因素，但至少從今年開始到至少到夏季開始，我認為這是一個很好的起點。

Yes, it gives you good sort of indicator of where we're headed, I think. But yes, there's so much noise in '23 right now. And again, on 2 critical fronts, pilot hiring and availability and the availability of aircraft. So we're just going to have to take it schedule to schedule.

是的，我認為它可以很好地指示我們前進的方向。但是，是的，現在 23 年有很多噪音。再次，在兩個關鍵方面，飛行員招聘和可用性以及飛機的可用性。所以我們只需要按計劃進行。

And the next question is from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

I guess following up on that conversation about capacity starting off in 2023. Tammy, how should we think about unit cost inflation? Because obviously, you're going to be hiring in front of that network restoration. So should investors be braced for still elevated CASM-X maybe in the first half of '23?

我想跟進關於 2023 年開始產能的對話。塔米，我們應該如何看待單位成本通脹？因為很明顯，您將在網絡恢復之前進行招聘。那麼投資者是否應該為 23 年上半年可能仍在上漲的 CASM-X 做好準備？

Well, we are incurring inflationary costs, as you're aware, which is primarily higher rates for labor, benefits in airports. But I do want to remind everyone that we are accruing for higher labor rates, and that accrual began on the second quarter, on April 1. So that's fully loaded in the second half and incorporated in the guidance that we shared for you for third quarter. So we do have cost pressures from lower productivity. And I think a key for us will be to really work to continue optimizing our staffing levels around the capacity set that we come up with for 2023, which, as Andrew took you through, we're just kind of out there now through the first quarter. It was pretty healthy capacity growth -- double-digit capacity growth. So obviously, that is going to help for the first quarter.

好吧，正如您所知，我們正在產生通貨膨脹成本，這主要是更高的勞動力費率和機場福利。但我確實想提醒大家，我們正在為更高的人工費率計提，並且該計提從 4 月 1 日的第二季度開始。因此，這在下半年已滿負荷運行，並已納入我們為您分享的第三季度指導中.因此，我們確實面臨生產力下降帶來的成本壓力。而且我認為對我們來說，關鍵是要真正努力繼續圍繞我們為 2023 年提出的能力集優化我們的人員配備水平，正如 Andrew 帶你經歷的那樣，我們現在已經完成了第一個四分之一。這是相當健康的產能增長——兩位數的產能增長。很明顯，這將對第一季度有所幫助。

So we're -- the main thing that we're going to have to work through are inefficiencies as we continue to restore the network and just right size our staffing. So we're working really hard to do that, and our priority is to regain our historical productivity and maintain a healthy unit cost advantage to our peers. So it's a little early to give you guidance for first quarter for CASM-X. We'll lay out our full 2023 plan for you when we get together in December for Investor Day, but those are really the key drivers of the inflation that we're feeling here this year. So we're going to work real hard to optimize and hit our goal for 2023 to have down CASM-X year-over-year.

所以我們 - 我們必須解決的主要問題是效率低下，因為我們繼續恢復網絡並恰到好處地調整我們的人員配置。因此，我們正在努力做到這一點，我們的首要任務是恢復我們的歷史生產力並保持對同行的健康單位成本優勢。因此，現在為您提供 CASM-X 第一季度的指導還為時過早。當我們在 12 月的投資者日聚會時，我們將為您制定完整的 2023 年計劃，但這些確實是我們今年在這裡感受到的通脹的關鍵驅動因素。因此，我們將真正努力優化並實現 2023 年的目標，即 CASM-X 同比下降。

And just -- sorry to keep adding but add a little 50,000-foot color again. Whenever -- coming out of COVID, with all of the early retirements and leaves and everything that we all did, we -- as you rebuild your hiring teams, you just ran at the staffing. So we were all hiring a lot. We've been on the sort of 1,500 a month pace here for a while overall. You're going to hear us talk a lot about now we're going to moderate our hiring because there was a lot of getting -- trying to hire ahead of the demand because there was so much gap between resources and the availability of the aircraft. So as that tightens up, we're -- obviously, ex pilots because pilots is really the gap at this point. You're going to see us work to get our hiring closer to the need versus hiring a head that makes any sense. It's going to take us a while to do that, but you are going to hear us talking an awful lot about moderating our hiring plans, again, ex pilots.

只是 - 很抱歉繼續添加，但再次添加一點 50,000 英尺的顏色。無論何時——從 COVID 中出來，所有的提前退休和離開以及我們所做的一切，我們——當你重建你的招聘團隊時，你只是在人員配備上跑。所以我們都招聘了很多人。一段時間以來，我們一直以每月 1,500 的速度增長。你會聽到我們談論很多現在我們將緩和我們的招聘，因為有很多人 - 試圖在需求之前招聘，因為資源和飛機的可用性之間存在很大差距.因此，隨著這種情況的加強，我們顯然是前飛行員，因為在這一點上飛行員確實是差距。你會看到我們努力讓我們的招聘更接近需求，而不是招聘一個有意義的負責人。我們需要一段時間才能做到這一點，但你會聽到我們談論很多關於緩和我們的招聘計劃的話題，同樣，前飛行員。

Yes. And just one more thought. I don't want to lose it. Again, going back to the network restoration as we do bring back on those more of our longer-haul flights, and that will certainly ease some of the CASM-X pressure as well.

是的。還有一個想法。我不想失去它。再次，回到網絡恢復，因為我們確實恢復了我們更多的長途航班，這肯定也會緩解一些 CASM-X 壓力。

I appreciate that, guys. And I guess, Tammy, to follow up on that. I mean, is the limitation here really pilots? Or is it commercial constraints? Or is it Boeing order book? Or is it combination of all three?

我很感激，伙計們。我想，塔米，要跟進。我的意思是，這裡的限制真的是飛行員嗎？還是商業限制？還是波音訂單？還是這三者的結合？

Today, it's pilots. We have the fleet. We need to fly our schedule through March. So going back to what we shared with you last quarter, we had more aircraft than we really needed. So with the adjustments that we walked through are that we have agreed upon with Boeing we believe that we can buy our schedule here through the end of the year. And so today, it is pilots. And as we move into 2023, we're hopeful that we'll begin to catch up here on the deliveries, but it is possible that as we get to the end of 2023, the constraint could go from pilots to the fleet. So we just -- it's just too early to give you any more precision than that today.

今天，是飛行員。我們有艦隊。我們需要把我們的日程安排到三月。因此，回到我們上個季度與您分享的內容，我們擁有的飛機數量超過了我們真正需要的數量。因此，通過我們與波音達成的調整，我們相信我們可以在這裡購買到今年年底的時間表。所以今天，它是飛行員。隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們希望我們將開始趕上交付，但隨著我們到 2023 年底，限制可能會從飛行員到機隊。所以我們只是 - 現在給你比今天更精確的信息還為時過早。

And the next question is from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

I wanted to ask about the managed business revenues improving from, I think, down 30% in April to down 19% in June. Is there any way to think about the breakout of how much of that improvement was volume versus better pricing? And you pointed to fares above 2019. So what are sort of volumes today? And how you think about it getting back to 2019 levels?

我想詢問託管業務收入從 4 月份下降 30% 到 6 月份下降 19% 的改善情況。有沒有辦法考慮這種改進中有多少是數量與更好的定價之間的突破？你指的是 2019 年以上的票價。那麼今天的銷量是多少？您如何看待它回到 2019 年的水平？

We had volumes improving faster than fares. Fares were still elevated versus 2019, but volumes really picked up some -- really started March through the end of June. I will say that it was skewed towards smaller businesses and government and education we're traveling. Our largest corporates are the ones that are lagging, particularly banking, consulting and technology who previously were amongst our top-tier travelers now or on the lower side.

我們的銷量增長速度快於票價。與 2019 年相比，票價仍然有所上漲，但銷量確實有所回升——實際上是從 3 月開始到 6 月底。我會說它偏向於我們正在旅行的小型企業、政府和教育。我們最大的公司是落後的，尤其是銀行、諮詢和技術，他們以前是我們的頂級旅行者，現在或處於較低水平。

And then if you kind of look at our -- all of our accounts, our largest accounts, they're all traveling. They all have activity, and they just have less unique travelers per account, but those travelers who are traveling are traveling just slightly less than their trialing before. So it's more about these large companies don't have the same number of people out there traveling right now, which we think varies by company of what that reason is. But that's the kind of hopeful benefit as we get into the travel season here post-summer is to get more travelers per account out on the road.

然後，如果您看看我們的所有帳戶，我們最大的帳戶，它們都在旅行。他們都有活動，每個帳戶的唯一身份旅行者較少，但那些正在旅行的旅行者的旅行量比他們之前的試用版略少。因此，更多的是這些大公司現在沒有相同數量的人在那裡旅行，我們認為這因公司而異，原因是什麼。但隨著我們進入夏季後的旅遊季節，這是一種有希望的好處，那就是讓每個賬戶的更多旅行者在路上。

Got it. No, that's super helpful. And then I just wanted to follow up on some of the RASM questions. If we exclude the headwinds from more short-haul corporate and breakage, there's a 5-point deceleration. And you mentioned pricing peaking in June, but as we think about that deceleration and how we extrapolate that towards the pricing environment retracting slightly versus restoring the network, I guess, how do you think about potential scenarios into Q4?

知道了。不，這非常有幫助。然後我只想跟進一些 RASM 問題。如果我們排除更多短途公司和破損的逆風，就會出現 5 個點的減速。你提到定價在 6 月達到頂峰，但是當我們考慮到這種減速以及我們如何將其推斷為定價環境略有回落而不是恢復網絡時，我想，你如何看待第四季度的潛在情況？

I'm not quite sure I got the last part of that, but I'll start off with the first part, which is about the deceleration. I think to have year over 3-year RASM be flat from Q2 to Q3, one would have to have load factor be flat sequentially, and that certainly is a reasonable assumption. And then secondly, you have to have yields to be flat sequentially from quarter-to-quarter. As I mentioned earlier, we're seeing through all of our external data as well as our internal yields peaked in June. And so -- and that's a leisure heavy period where they peaked. And so essentially, you couldn't push leisure travelers beyond a certain fair level it seems like. And I think highest fare level also seemed to hurt our redemptions as well because the point volume got super high.

我不太確定我得到了最後一部分，但我將從第一部分開始，這是關於減速的。我認為如果要讓 3 年以上的 RASM 從第二季度到第三季度持平，那麼負載率就必須依次持平，這當然是一個合理的假設。其次，你必須讓收益率從一個季度到另一個季度保持平穩。正如我之前提到的，我們正在查看所有外部數據以及我們的內部收益率在 6 月份達到頂峰。所以 - 那是他們達到頂峰的休閒時期。因此，從本質上講，您不能將休閒旅行者推到超出某個公平水平的範圍內。而且我認為最高票價水平似乎也損害了我們的兌換，因為積分量變得非常高。

But now you're rotating in a period where there's less leisure travel, and you certainly can't push fall leisure travel at the same fare levels as the summer. And then we have the kind of composition issue of how much business travel will be back who are paying the higher fares. So you have a composition headwind as we go from Q2 to Q3 because this business and leisure and you have the point of business travelers -- or excuse me, leisure travelers have a price elasticity effect where you can't go much higher. And so that's really what's driving this kind of change. It's not an abrupt change or a free fall. It's just a moderation from the hay day of June.

但是現在你正處於一個休閒旅行較少的時期，你當然不能將秋季休閒旅行推向與夏季相同的票價水平。然後我們有一種構成問題，即支付更高票價的商務旅行將返回多少。因此，當我們從第二季度到第三季度時，你有一個組合逆風，因為商務和休閒，你有商務旅行者的觀點——或者對不起，休閒旅行者有價格彈性效應，你不能再高了。這就是推動這種變化的真正原因。這不是突然的變化或自由落體。這只是從六月的干草日開始的溫和。

We have time for one more question. We'll take our last question from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

我們有時間再問一個問題。最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

If I can just follow up on the last comment on the yield. Again, is the message shows that what you're seeing is just normal seasonality? Or is it like better or worse than that? Also, do you have a sense of what percentage of the June yield growth versus 2019 is sort of the new normal or can be built as part of the baseline going forward if you have a sense of that?

如果我能跟進關於收益率的最後評論。再次，消息是否表明您所看到的只是正常的季節性？還是比這更好或更糟？此外，您是否知道 6 月收益率與 2019 年相比增長的百分比是某種新常態，或者如果您有這種感覺，可以將其作為未來基線的一部分？

So my personal opinion is that June leisure travel reflected part trend, part pent-up demand that was kind of a onetime effect, so to speak. And so we're still seeing leisure yield up July, August, September. So leisure yields are still up and look like they'll continue to be up as far as we can see it in our booking curve. And then yes, you do then have on top of that, a compositional effect. So we have that pent-up demand that will not persist, but you still have an elevated leisure trend and you rotate that into a time of year where leisure is a lower composition and business is higher. And then back to the question of how much business will there be. So a lot of that kind of ultimate yield for Q3 will turn on how much business demand comes back and if we see a return to that kind of acceleration, we had in the spring of business travel.

所以我個人的看法是，6 月份的休閒旅遊部分反映了趨勢，部分反映了被壓抑的需求，可以說是一種一次性效應。因此，我們仍然看到 7 月、8 月和 9 月的休閒產量增加。因此，休閒收益仍在上升，並且看起來它們將繼續上升，就我們在預訂曲線中看到的而言。然後是的，除此之外，你確實有一個組合效果。所以我們有這種被壓抑的需求不會持續下去，但你仍然有一個高漲的休閒趨勢，你把它輪換到一年中休閒構成較低而業務較高的時間。然後回到會有多少業務的問題。因此，第三季度的很多這種最終收益將取決於有多少商業需求回來了，如果我們看到這種加速回歸，我們在商務旅行的春天就有了。

Got it. Sounds great. And maybe as a follow-up. Bob, maybe to summarize a lot of the detail on this call so far. What do you think is the biggest risk facing Southwest over the next 6 months? Is it a risk of a consumer recession kind of beating up your top line? Or is it another operational snap for the industry in a late fall into the fourth quarter that kind of drives elevated CASM-X?

知道了。聽起來很棒。也許作為後續行動。 Bob，也許可以總結一下目前為止關於這次電話會議的很多細節。您認為西南航空未來 6 個月面臨的最大風險是什麼？消費者衰退的風險是否會影響您的收入？或者是第四季度末該行業的另一個運營突發事件，推動了 CASM-X 的提升？

Ravi, the airline industry, there's always -- it's not for the faint of heart, right? There's all kinds of things in front of you. I don't know that I tend to think of it the same way. We have -- I kind of go into reverse here, and then I'll come to your question. If you look at just the past 6 months and where we were. So we've gotten staffing stable. We were on our hiring plans. Obviously, we have work to do with pilots, but we are in so much better shape. We've gotten operationally stable, same thing. We want to do better, but we are in so much better shape. Our cancel rate in May and June was sub 1% better than 2019. We just had a record quarter, record operating revenue.

拉維，航空業，總是有——它不適合膽小的人，對吧？各種各樣的事情擺在你面前。我不知道我傾向於以同樣的方式思考它。我們有-- 我在這裡有點相反，然後我會回答你的問題。如果您僅查看過去 6 個月以及我們所處的位置。所以我們已經穩定了人員配置。我們正在製定招聘計劃。顯然，我們與飛行員有關係，但我們的狀態要好得多。我們已經獲得了運營穩定，同樣的事情。我們想做得更好，但我們的狀態要好得多。我們在 5 月和 6 月的取消率比 2019 年低 1%。我們剛剛有了一個創紀錄的季度，創紀錄的營業收入。

So it's just -- we're hiring 1,500 people a month. There's so many things to be grateful for in terms of the pace of getting the airline from kind of surviving to being really stable. Now we want to move into the next phase and really move back into operational excellence and other things.

所以只是——我們每個月招聘 1,500 人。就航空公司從生存到真正穩定的步伐而言，有很多事情值得感激。現在我們想進入下一階段，真正回到卓越運營和其他方面。

But now to really answer your question though, I do think there's no one thing on the horizon. There is -- if you just sort of click through them, there's risk in hiring enough pilots, but we're filling our classes. We have a lot of folks in the pipeline. The SIMs are full, the classrooms are full. We have all our flight instructors subject, I feel good about that. You have our -- this new delay in deliveries from Boeing, but we're working really closely with Boeing, and I feel like we're on top of that. And at the end of the day, we can fly our schedule. So it's not going to force a reduction to the schedule that's been published, which is just terrific for employees and our customers.

但是現在要真正回答您的問題，我確實認為沒有一件事即將發生。有——如果你只是點擊它們，僱傭足夠多的飛行員是有風險的，但我們正在填補我們的課程。我們有很多人正在籌備中。 SIM 卡已滿，教室已滿。我們有我們所有的飛行教官科目，我對此感覺很好。你有我們的 - 波音公司交付的新延遲，但我們正在與波音公司密切合作，我覺得我們處於最重要的位置。在一天結束的時候，我們可以安排我們的日程安排。因此，它不會強制減少已發布的時間表，這對員工和我們的客戶來說非常棒。

I guess the biggest thing is just not one thing, but it's just all the uncertainty on the horizon. So you've got a recession potential, you've got a lot of variability in fuel prices, huge variability and volatility and crack spreads on fuel. You have potential variability in demand because of all those things, supply chain issue still. So who knows whether those will materialize or not. The good thing is we are extremely well positioned. We have the people we need. We have the aircraft we need. We have a $6 billion net cash position. We have 53% leverage and -- so we're well positioned to weather whatever comes our way. So I don't -- I didn't specifically -- I didn't name one thing, but I've just given you a flavor for how I think about it.

我想最大的事情不是一件事，而是即將到來的所有不確定性。所以你有衰退的可能性，你有很多燃料價格的可變性，巨大的可變性和波動性以及燃料的裂解價差。由於所有這些因素，您的需求可能會發生變化，供應鏈問題仍然存在。所以誰知道這些是否會實現。好消息是我們處於非常有利的位置。我們有我們需要的人。我們有我們需要的飛機。我們有 60 億美元的淨現金頭寸。我們有 53% 的槓桿，所以我們有能力應對任何發生的事情。所以我沒有——我沒有特別地——我沒有說出一件事，但我只是讓你了解了我的想法。

Well, thank you, Ravi, and thank you, everyone, for the questions. That's all the time we have for the analyst portion of our call today. I appreciate everyone joining, and have a great day.

好吧，謝謝你，拉維，謝謝大家的提問。這就是我們今天電話會議中分析師部分的所有時間。我感謝大家的加入，祝您有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with our media portion of today's call. I'd like to first introduce Linda Rutherford, Executive Vice President, People and Communications.

女士們，先生們，我們現在開始今天電話會議的媒體部分。我想首先介紹一下人事與傳播部執行副總裁琳達·盧瑟福。

Thank you, Chad, and welcome to the members of the media on our call today. We can go ahead and get started if you'll just give them some quick instructions on how to queue up.

謝謝你，乍得，歡迎媒體成員參加我們今天的電話會議。如果您給他們一些關於如何排隊的快速說明，我們就可以開始了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from Alison Sider from the Wall Street Journal.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自華爾街日報的 Alison Sider。

I wanted to ask about the reports that the FAA released yesterday, and specifically, some of the allegations that raised about how Southwest has responded to investigations of certain flight incidents and accidents. Could you talk a little bit about kind of what you made of those allegations, if you agree with those assessments and whether you've made any changes in the last couple of years to your approach to those investigations.

我想問一下美國聯邦航空局昨天發布的報告，特別是關於西南航空如何回應某些飛行事故和事故調查的一些指控。你能否談談你對這些指控的看法，如果你同意這些評估，以及你在過去幾年中是否對這些調查的方法做出了任何改變。

Alison, I'll start and then Mike can give a lot better information in detail, I'm sure. But the -- I think from what I've seen here, there's nothing new. It's a collection of old stories. So these are allegations that were raised, I think, in 2018, 2019, all examined by the DOT, the OIG, others. And I think a published report in February 2020, we cooperated with everyone, FAA, OIG, senate committees, et cetera, took this very seriously as we always do. Safety is #1. We are very safe, always improving safety. So I think this was -- my mind, it was just a wrap-up of that process. So I think in the special counsel report letter that came out even at the end there, it acknowledged this matter is now closed.

艾莉森，我先開始，然後邁克可以提供更多詳細信息，我敢肯定。但是——我認為從我在這裡看到的情況來看，沒有什麼新東西。這是一個古老故事的集合。因此，我認為這些是在 2018 年和 2019 年提出的指控，均由 DOT、OIG 和其他機構審查。我認為在 2020 年 2 月發布的一份報告中，我們與 FAA、OIG、參議院委員會等所有人合作，一如既往地非常重視這一點。安全是第一。我們非常安全，一直在提高安全性。所以我認為這是 - 我的想法，這只是該過程的總結。所以我認為在最後出來的特別律師報告信中，它承認這件事現在已經結束了。

So I think it's just essentially a closeout of what occurred in '18 and '19 versus some there in news. So to me, it's just -- it's a rehash of something that has been -- that has gone on before versus anything new. But Mike, do you want to add anything?

所以我認為這基本上只是對 18 和 19 年發生的事情與新聞中的一些事情的結束。所以對我來說，這只是——它是對曾經發生過的事情的重新演繹——以前發生過的事情與任何新事物相比。但是邁克，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes. I don't have anything to add there, Alison. We have participated with every group looking into it. We have responded to everyone that was interested in it, and every one of those issues have been addressed.

是的。我沒有什麼要補充的，艾莉森。我們參與了每個小組的調查。我們已經回復了所有對此感興趣的人，並且每一個問題都已得到解決。

Okay. And if I could ask one more. Mike, you mentioned sort of the connection between having all these new hires who are just new in their roles and kind of just the temp of the operation this summer. Can you talk a little bit about what the connection is? Like what -- where you're seeing -- where you had seen things kind of get slowed down and if that's changed at all in the last couple of months?

好的。如果我可以再問一個。邁克，你提到了所有這些新員工之間的聯繫，這些新員工在他們的角色中都是新人，而只是今年夏天的運營臨時工。你能談談什麼是聯繫嗎？比如——你在哪裡看到的——你看到的東西在哪裡變慢了，如果在過去的幾個月裡這種情況發生了變化？

Yes. So just when you think about the tempo, so I think that we've hired about 3,000 ground operations employees in the second quarter. So if you think about the operating environment in the airport, a lot of heavy equipment out there. There's an operating tempo out there, and you don't necessarily feel that or experience that in training. And so when you're a new hire employee, part of the on-the-job training process is to match you up with an experienced employee. And so a ramp agent in Southwest Airlines that has been there a year is -- he can work alone or she can work alone and process all the activity.

是的。所以就在你考慮節奏的時候，我認為我們在第二季度僱傭了大約 3,000 名地面運營員工。所以如果你考慮一下機場的運行環境，那裡有很多重型設備。那裡有一個操作節奏，你不一定會在訓練中感覺到或體驗到。因此，當您是一名新員工時，在職培訓過程的一部分就是為您匹配一位經驗豐富的員工。因此，西南航空公司的一名停機坪代理人已經在那里工作了一年——他可以單獨工作，或者她可以單獨工作並處理所有活動。

If you're a brand-new hire, you're paired up with someone. So those are the kinds of things that just pace and slow down the operating tempo a bit. And so we just have given all the hiring, you just feel that as part of the company.

如果您是新員工，那麼您與某人配對。因此，這些事情只會稍微加快和減慢操作節奏。所以我們剛剛提供了所有的招聘，你只是覺得這是公司的一部分。

And the next question is from Dawn Gilbertson from the USA Today.

下一個問題來自《今日美國》的 Dawn Gilbertson。

Question for Andrew, I'd like it if you could maybe go into some more detail on your policy change as it relates to credit. I guess -- was it ever under consideration to just extend the COVID credit policy and not make this broader. Can you just talk about the pros and cons you're weighing? Was this a -- you get comment, you get questions all the time, can I extend my credit? I know you offered people -- they could pay $100 to get a credit. It just become kind of overwhelming trying to do this, and this was -- aside from your brand promise, this was something that you thought would make things a whole lot easier for employees and travelers.

安德魯的問題，如果你能詳細說明你的政策變化，因為它與信用有關，我想知道。我猜——是否曾經考慮過只是擴大 COVID 信貸政策而不是擴大這一範圍。你能談談你正在權衡的利弊嗎？這是一個 - 你得到評論，你一直有問題，我可以延長我的信用嗎？我知道你提供給人們——他們可以支付 100 美元來獲得信用。嘗試這樣做變得有點壓倒性，這是 - 除了你的品牌承諾之外，你認為這會讓員工和旅行者的事情變得更容易。

Dawn, I think you're on to good elements of this. So we had this looming expiration of kind of COVID funds that brings it to the wine now, as Bob mentioned earlier. But flexibility has always been important for customers. But over COVID, it's become even more important. And you see like I want to get away plus, we like to transfer flight credits. We now have discount refundable tickets because that becomes more important to people. So the desire for customers to have more and more flexibility has been increasing. And now it's become the #1 call driver for our customer relations department as people coming in and talk about their funds. We also added in the website and the my account, we kind of put it prominently even before your point balance you have it there.

黎明，我認為你已經掌握了這方面的好元素。因此，正如鮑勃之前提到的，我們現在面臨著一種 COVID 基金即將到期的情況，現在將其帶到了葡萄酒中。但靈活性對客戶來說一直很重要。但是在 COVID 上，它變得更加重要。你看，我想離開，而且我們喜歡轉移飛行積分。我們現在有折扣可退票，因為這對人們來說變得更加重要。因此，客戶越來越希望擁有越來越多的靈活性。現在，當人們進來談論他們的資金時，它已成為我們客戶關係部門的第一號呼叫驅動程序。我們還添加了網站和我的帳戶，我們甚至在您的積分餘額之前將其放在顯眼位置。

And so we -- the elevated desire of our customers for flexibility and concern about funds led us to this move, which we think is consistent with our brand. And so you could just extend some funds, but realistically, that really gives you nothing to go and promise customers. If you say, well, not only this extended, there's been forever, then you can go out and say now part of my marketing message is, I'm giving you this is yours to begin with, and it will never expire. We can market that, and that can lower the hurdle for people to buy, take it from Southwest Airlines because, a, they know they can change it. There will be no fee. They know they can bring bags, all that stuff. And on top of that, you're not worried about using it in a timely manner because it will always be there for you. So you put those things together and you might will go all the way and have it never expire versus just a simple extension, which kind of gets lost in the shuffle.

所以我們 - 客戶對靈活性和對資金的關注的強烈願望導致我們採取了這一舉措，我們認為這與我們的品牌一致。所以你可以只提供一些資金，但實際上，這真的讓你沒有什麼可去向客戶承諾的。如果你說，好吧，不僅是這個擴展，還有永遠存在，那麼你現在可以出去說我的營銷信息的一部分是，我給你這是你的開始，它永遠不會過期。我們可以推銷它，這可以降低人們購買的障礙，從西南航空公司那裡拿走它，因為，a，他們知道他們可以改變它。不會有任何費用。他們知道他們可以帶包，所有這些東西。最重要的是，您不必擔心及時使用它，因為它會一直為您服務。所以你把這些東西放在一起，你可能會一路走下去，讓它永不過期，而不是一個簡單的擴展，這種擴展會在洗牌中迷失。

One quick follow-up on that. Do you have any stats or can you give me any sense? I mean, how many people -- obviously, if you have a small credit, it wouldn't have been worth it to pay $100. But how many people paid for that 6-month extension by having $100 shaved off their credit.

對此進行快速跟進。你有任何統計數據，或者你能給我任何意義嗎？我的意思是，有多少人——顯然，如果你的信用很小，支付 100 美元就不值得了。但是有多少人通過削減 100 美元的信用額來支付 6 個月的延期費用。

I don't have it, and maybe we can follow up. I don't know if you even track it. It wasn't always a policy, it was like a compromise sometimes. Many times, we would just extend it for free. And other times, when it was clear that someone had long forgotten and we've extended it multiple times, maybe that was a last gap. So it was not a hard and fast policy from us, it was just an occasional practice. But it shows you kind of the increasing importance of the customers. So we will just move to the other side of the ledger, so to speak, and say it's always yours and it will be there for you.

我沒有，也許我們可以跟進。我不知道你是否甚至跟踪它。這並不總是一項政策，有時它就像一種妥協。很多時候，我們只是免費擴展它。而其他時候，當很明顯有人早已忘記並且我們已經多次擴展它時，也許這是最後一個差距。所以這不是我們的硬性政策，只是偶爾的做法。但它向你展示了客戶日益增長的重要性。所以我們將移動到分類帳的另一邊，可以這麼說，並說它永遠是你的，它會在那里為你服務。

Well, we're always doing customer research around what do our customers want. That's how we arrived that we need to add -- recently, we need to add power on the aircraft. We need to add larger overhead beds. And the desire for flexibility, especially post-COVID, where there were lots of changes, it rises right to the top. And so our customers are telling us that, that peace of mind around the ability to change is really, really important. And so again, I know I've said this many times, you couple that with a peace of mind around no bag fees, no change fees, Rapid Rewards points that don't expire. And now transferability within the new Wanna Get Away Plus fare. And it's just a really powerful package because we're taking all that worry away from our customers. And again, I'm convinced that not only are we going to retain customers because of this policy change, we are going to win new customers, just like we did with bag fees.

好吧，我們一直在圍繞客戶的需求進行客戶研究。這就是我們需要添加的方式 - 最近，我們需要在飛機上添加電源。我們需要增加更大的高架床。對靈活性的渴望，尤其是在發生了很多變化的新冠疫情之後，它上升到了頂峰。所以我們的客戶告訴我們，對改變能力的安心是非常非常重要的。再說一次，我知道我已經說過很多次了，您可以放心地使用無行李費、無改簽費、永不過期的快速獎勵積分。現在可在新的 Wanna Get Away Plus 票價中轉讓。它只是一個非常強大的軟件包，因為我們正在消除客戶的所有擔憂。再一次，我相信，我們不僅會因為這項政策變化而留住客戶，而且還會贏得新客戶，就像我們在行李費上所做的那樣。

And Bob, I'd also add on that we're really powered by repeat purchases, right? People buy us, they experience us, they love us, they come back. Thank you, Dawn, for being a frequent flyer. And so I think that's different. A lot of the times, airlines look at one Dawn, smash graph like a basic economy or something like that. People remember when they weren't treated well. And so in this environment, once again, we're getting more to the customer, they will like this, they will come back and repurchase us. And in fact, a travel credit, by definition, is a repurchase. And so that repurchase behavior is what powers all consumer businesses, especially ours.

Bob，我還要補充一點，我們真的是靠重複購買來驅動的，對吧？人們購買我們，他們體驗我們，他們愛我們，他們回來。謝謝你，黎明，成為常旅客。所以我認為這是不同的。很多時候，航空公司看著一個黎明，像基本經濟一樣粉碎圖表或類似的東西。人們記得當他們沒有得到很好的對待時。因此，在這種環境下，我們再次向客戶提供更多，他們會喜歡這個，他們會回來回購我們。事實上，根據定義，旅行積分是一種回購。因此，回購行為是所有消費業務的動力，尤其是我們的業務。

Next question will be from David Slotnick from TPG.

下一個問題來自 TPG 的 David Slotnick。

Wondered if you could just share any colors or numbers or anything on the number of individual outstanding credits you have or the overall value of them, anything to that effect, maybe the number that's left unused since 2020?

想知道您是否可以分享任何顏色或數字或任何關於您擁有的個人未償還學分的數量或它們的整體價值，任何與此相關的內容，也許是自 2020 年以來未使用的數字？

Yes. This is Tammy. I can help you with that. In terms of the balance that represents travel issues that have been issued, what was in our air traffic liability balance at the end of the second quarter, it probably represented about 6% of that balance. So call it, between $400 million and $500 million, and that is, of course, a net of estimated breakage. So that gives you at least a ballpark. It's historically been maybe close -- maybe a little bit lighter than that, but it's not the most significant piece of our air traffic liability.

是的。這是塔米。我可以幫你。就代表已發布的旅行問題的餘額而言，我們在第二季度末的空中交通責任餘額中可能佔該餘額的 6% 左右。就這麼算吧，在 4 億到 5 億美元之間，當然，這是估計破損的淨值。所以這至少給了你一個球場。從歷史上看，它可能很接近——可能比這輕一點，但這並不是我們空中交通責任中最重要的部分。

And the next question is from [Nahood Rojwani from XCLs].

下一個問題來自 [來自 XCLs 的 Nahood Rojwani]。

I wanted to ask about talk in the local news media lately in the Dallas area that Southwest will be able to expand service to DFW without having to give update at Love Field starting in 2025. I wanted to ask you directly, is adding service to DFW Airport part of your long-term plan, why or why not?

我想問一下達拉斯地區最近在當地新聞媒體上的談話，從 2025 年開始，西南航空將能夠將服務擴展到 DFW，而無需在 Love Field 提供更新。我想直接問你，正在向 DFW 添加服務機場是您長期計劃的一部分，為什麼或為什麼不？

Well, the -- I mean first off, Dallas is our home. And we love serving Dallas. We were born here. The Dallas -- we put a lot of money in the Dallas Love Field, basically rebuilding the airport, adding gauges, and we're very happy there. Job one is to secure the gates that we have at Love Field and all that. Love Field though, obviously, is constrained. And so we want to see -- we want to continue to serve the area. And at some point, that becomes difficult given the capacity of Love Field. So it's just a general comment that as we that will look to add capacity generally to the extent that we can, there are a lot of potential ways to do that. Obviously, DFW could be a way to do that. We don't have anything in process. It's really more a comment about being able to serve the area than it is about a desire to go to DFW. And at some point, when you're constrained, you have to find a way around that. But really job one right now is to conserve -- is to preserve access to Love Field. And Andrew, if you want to add anything to that?

嗯，我的意思是首先，達拉斯是我們的家。我們喜歡為達拉斯服務。我們出生在這裡。達拉斯——我們在達拉斯愛田投入了大量資金，基本上重建了機場，增加了儀表，我們在那裡很開心。第一項工作是保護我們在 Love Field 的大門等等。不過，Love Field 顯然受到了限制。所以我們希望看到 - 我們希望繼續為該地區服務。在某些時候，考慮到 Love Field 的容量，這變得很困難。所以這只是一個一般性的評論，因為我們希望盡可能地增加容量，有很多潛在的方法可以做到這一點。顯然，DFW 可能是一種方法。我們沒有任何正在處理的事情。這實際上更多的是關於能夠為該地區服務的評論，而不是關於去 DFW 的願望。在某些時候，當您受到限制時，您必須找到解決方法。但現在真正的工作是保護——保護對愛場的訪問。安德魯，如果你想添加任何東西？

I think it's common for us to serve multiple airports in a metro area. We do that in the Los Angeles Basin area, San Francisco Bay Area, Washington, D.C., Houston, Chicago, so that's normal for us. So it would be normal for us to have another airport we served in a large population place like Dallas. One of our responsibilities is to create more opportunities we can prosecute. And so we have lots of opportunities all around our system. Dallas is one of them. So I think the point in time is not material, but it's an opportunity for us to prosecute when the timing and the facilities are right.

我認為我們在一個都市區為多個機場提供服務是很常見的。我們在洛杉磯盆地、舊金山灣區、華盛頓特區、休斯頓、芝加哥都這樣做，所以這對我們來說很正常。因此，我們在達拉斯這樣人口眾多的地方擁有另一個機場是正常的。我們的職責之一是創造更多我們可以起訴的機會。因此，我們的系統周圍有很多機會。達拉斯就是其中之一。所以我認為時間點並不重要，但它是我們在時機和設施合適時起訴的機會。

Very well said. So yes, the issue isn't DFW, the issue is how do we continue to serve the area. That's really the issue at stake.

說得好。所以是的，問題不在於 DFW，問題在於我們如何繼續為該地區服務。這才是真正的問題所在。

And if I may follow up briefly. Are you able to share some of the benefits that you've noticed operationally for having flights out of two airports in a metro region? What are some of the things that can be a win-win for not only customers, but also for you at Southwest?

如果我可以簡要跟進。您能否分享一些您在運營中發現的從都市區的兩個機場起飛的航班的一些好處？在西南航空，哪些事情不僅可以為客戶帶來雙贏，也可以為您帶來雙贏？

We generally want this for our customer reason because we want customers to go to the airport. It's the most convenient to them. So really when you get these big metro areas, traffic also becomes a big part of your travel plans. And especially if you fly in shorter hauls, if you're flying from across the country, you may not perceive the difference between LAX, in Burbank, in Long Beach, in Orange County, in Ontario. But if you're flying from Denver or Northern California or Phoenix, then it can become -- the traffic is a material part of your journey, so you want to fly an airport that's closer to where you're going. And so having these kind of neighborhood airports, if you will, gives our customers a better value proposition for kind of end-to-end transit. So that's the biggest driver is that kind of convenience once you're on the ground to our customers.

我們通常出於客戶的原因想要這個，因為我們希望客戶去機場。這對他們來說是最方便的。因此，當您到達這些大都市區時，交通也成為您旅行計劃的重要組成部分。尤其是短途飛行，如果你是從全國各地飛來的，你可能不會感覺到洛杉磯國際機場、伯班克、長灘、奧蘭治縣和安大略省之間的區別。但如果你從丹佛、北加州或鳳凰城起飛，那麼它可能會變成——交通是你旅程的重要組成部分，所以你想飛一個離你要去的地方更近的機場。因此，如果您願意的話，擁有這些鄰里機場可以為我們的客戶提供更好的端到端運輸價值主張。因此，最大的推動力是一旦您到達我們的客戶那裡就可以獲得這種便利。

We'll take our last question from [Yuvraj Jaksi] from the New York Times.

我們將回答《紐約時報》的 [Yuvraj Jaksi] 的最後一個問題。

I apologize if you've already addressed this. But I was just curious if you're able to say anything with the Spirit/JetBlue merger. If -- I guess I'd just be curious to hear your perspective on how that could affect the competitive landscape? How -- just anything sort of generally about how you think it might affect the industry?

如果你已經解決了這個問題，我很抱歉。但我只是好奇你是否能對 Spirit/JetBlue 的合併說些什麼。如果——我想我只是想听聽你對這將如何影響競爭格局的看法？怎麼樣——只是關於你認為它可能如何影響這個行業的任何一般性的東西？

You love my answer because we don't comment on mergers acquisition. But just generally, obviously, we have experience with these things. It's Southwest over time. We purchased AirTran Airways. We did some things with ATA. We had Morris over time. So we have experience about once a decade or so doing something here. I'm not going to opine on Spirit and what's happening with Frontier and JetBlue. I would just tell you how we think about it, which is we're going to compete with anybody, whoever that is. We compete vigorously every single day in every location. And so whether that's, in this case, Spirit standalone or Spirit merged with somebody else, it doesn't change the way we think about competition and what we need to do.

你喜歡我的回答，因為我們不對併購發表評論。但總的來說，很明顯，我們對這些事情有經驗。隨著時間的推移，它是西南。我們購買了 AirTran Airways。我們用 ATA 做了一些事情。隨著時間的推移，我們有了莫里斯。所以我們有大約十年左右在這裡做某事的經驗。我不會對 Spirit 以及 Frontier 和 JetBlue 發生的事情發表意見。我只想告訴你我們是怎麼想的，那就是我們將與任何人競爭，無論是誰。我們每天在每個地點都在激烈競爭。因此，在這種情況下，無論是 Spirit 獨立還是 Spirit 與其他人合併，它都不會改變我們對競爭的看法以及我們需要做什麼。

We need to serve our customers. We need to have the best network. We need to have efficiencies like a single aircraft type. We need to have low cost that enable low fares. And I always go back to the beauty of Southwest Airlines is we have the best employees who wake up every day with a heart to serve others before they serve themselves. And that's the beauty of Southwest. And that's how we think about competition is deploying our strengths. So that would be my answer, which is no matter who it is, we're going to compete.

我們需要為我們的客戶服務。我們需要擁有最好的網絡。我們需要像單一機型一樣的效率。我們需要低成本來實現低票價。我總是回到西南航空公司的美麗之處，那就是我們擁有最好的員工，他們每天醒來時都懷著先為他人服務的心，然後才為自己服務。這就是西南的美麗。這就是我們如何看待競爭正在發揮我們的優勢。所以這就是我的答案，無論是誰，我們都會競爭。

And I'd just add on to it. You've probably heard through the call, is talking about getting back to our efficiencies, rolling out our new products, restoring our network, reinvigorating our culture. So we control our own destiny. So we just roll this plan out, we talked about all call and we control our destiny. So we don't really need someone to do -- someone else in the industry to do something or avoid doing something. We control our own destiny, and so we'll prosecute that. I think that's what benefits you when you're in a position of strength, like Southwest Airlines is.

我只是補充一下。您可能已經通過電話聽到了，正在談論恢復我們的效率，推出我們的新產品，恢復我們的網絡，重振我們的文化。所以我們掌握了自己的命運。所以我們只是推出了這個計劃，我們談論了所有的電話，我們控制了我們的命運。所以我們真的不需要有人去做——行業中的其他人來做某事或避免做某事。我們控制自己的命運，所以我們會起訴。我認為當你處於強勢地位時，這對你有利，就像西南航空公司一樣。

Yes. Thank you, Andrew. So back to the earlier question, too, about what worries you out there like potential recession? We talk all the time internally about. We can't control the externals, but we can control our reaction to them and how we manage ourselves here in Southwest Airlines, and that is 100% our focus.

是的。謝謝你，安德魯。回到前面的問題，還有什麼讓你擔心像潛在的經濟衰退？我們一直在內部談論。我們無法控制外部因素，但我們可以控制我們對它們的反應以及我們在西南航空公司如何管理自己，這是我們 100% 的重點。

And just one thought as you were all talking, just to come back to our second quarter results. They truly were extraordinary to have a record performance. And you just think about where we come from 2 years ago, it's just remarkable. And we've talked a lot about our third quarter revenue performance. And while there is certainly some noise in some of the numbers, our guide was still up 8% to 12% relative to 2019. And a lot of commentary on revenues, but I do want to make sure that I was clear that when modeling our revenues going forward, you would want to use our third quarter guidance of that 8% to 12%. Just to be really clear because I know we've done a lot of information out of you today. So it's really gratifying to think about how far we've come from 2019.

當你們都在談論時，只是一個想法，只是為了回到我們的第二季度業績。他們真的是非凡的有創紀錄的表現。你想想我們兩年前來自哪裡，這真是了不起。我們已經談論了很多關於我們第三季度的收入表現。雖然在某些數字中肯定存在一些噪音，但我們的指南相對於 2019 年仍然增長了 8% 到 12%。還有很多關於收入的評論，但我確實想確保在建模我們的未來的收入，你會想要使用我們的 8% 到 12% 的第三季度指導。只是要非常清楚，因為我知道我們今天已經從你那裡得到了很多信息。因此，想想我們距離 2019 年已經走了多遠，真是令人欣慰。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ms. Rutherford for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議轉回給盧瑟福女士做任何閉幕詞。

Thank you all so much for being with us today. As usual, you can follow up with our communications department if you have any other questions or you can visit us at www.swamedia.com. Thanks and have a great day.

非常感謝大家今天與我們在一起。像往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，您可以聯繫我們的通訊部門，或者您可以訪問我們的網站 www.swamedia.com。謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。