西南航空 (LUV) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Southwest Airlines First Quarter 2022 Conference Call. My name is Chad, and I will be moderating today's call. This call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on southwest.com in the Investor Relations section. (Operator Instructions)

    美好的一天,歡迎參加西南航空公司 2022 年第一季度電話會議。我的名字是乍得,我將主持今天的電話會議。本次通話正在錄音,重播將在 south.com 的“投資者關係”部分提供。 (操作員說明)

  • At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Ryan Martinez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    此時,我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Ryan Martinez 先生。請繼續,先生。

  • Ryan Martinez - VP of IR

    Ryan Martinez - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Chad, and thank you all for joining us today. In just a moment, we will share our prepared remarks and then open it up for Q&A. Joining me on the call today, we have our CEO, Bob Jordan; Executive Vice President and CFO, Tammy Romo; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Watterson; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Michael Van de Ven.

    謝謝你,Chad,謝謝大家今天加入我們。稍後,我們將分享我們準備好的評論,然後將其打開以進行問答。今天加入我的電話會議,我們有我們的首席執行官鮑勃喬丹;執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Tammy Romo;執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Andrew Watterson;總裁兼首席運營官 Michael Van de Ven。

  • A quick reminder that we will make forward-looking statements today, which are based on our current expectations of future performance, and our actual results could differ substantially from these expectations. Also, we had a few special items in our first quarter results, which we excluded from our trends for non-GAAP purposes, and we will reference these non-GAAP results in our remarks. Please see our press release from this morning and our IR website for more information, our cautionary statements and our non-GAAP reconciliation for more detail.

    快速提醒一下,我們今天將根據我們目前對未來業績的預期做出前瞻性陳述,而我們的實際結果可能與這些預期有很大差異。此外,我們在第一季度業績中有一些特殊項目,我們出於非 GAAP 目的將其排除在我們的趨勢之外,我們將在我們的評論中引用這些非 GAAP 業績。請參閱我們今天上午的新聞稿和我們的 IR 網站了解更多信息、我們的警示性聲明和我們的非 GAAP 對賬以了解更多詳細信息。

  • With that, Bob, I'll turn it over to you.

    有了這個,鮑勃,我會把它交給你。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • All right. Well, thank you, Ryan. Hello, everybody. Thank you for joining us today. Well, the first quarter was a tale of 2 really different environments. As expected, we incurred losses in January and February due to the negative impacts of the Omicron variant. We anticipated travel demand would rebound in March, and we were pleasantly surprised at how quickly it bounced back and the extent to which demand and bookings surged. While we reported a Q1 loss, we were solidly profitable in March, actually not too far off of March 2019's profit. And while modest, I'm very pleased that first quarter unit revenues increased as compared to 2019. That was the first quarterly increase since the onset of the pandemic.

    好的。好吧,謝謝你,瑞恩。大家好。感謝您今天加入我們。嗯,第一季度是關於 2 個完全不同的環境的故事。正如預期的那樣,由於 Omicron 變體的負面影響,我們在 1 月和 2 月遭受了損失。我們預計旅行需求將在 3 月份反彈,我們對它反彈的速度以及需求和預訂量激增的程度感到驚喜。雖然我們報告了第一季度的虧損,但我們在 3 月份實現了穩定盈利,實際上與 2019 年 3 月的利潤相差不遠。雖然規模不大,但我很高興第一季度的單位收入與 2019 年相比有所增加。這是自大流行開始以來的第一個季度增長。

  • So -- but for the Omicron impact, we estimate that we would have been profitable for the first quarter. In the first quarter, total operating revenues were 91% restored to 2019 levels despite Q1 managed business revenues being only 45% restored. Looking forward, we are very encouraged with the bookings and revenue trends we are experiencing for Q2, which indicate operating revenues will be fully restored to quarterly record levels on stronger leisure and business demand.

    所以 - 如果沒有 Omicron 的影響,我們估計第一季度我們會盈利。在第一季度,儘管第一季度管理的業務收入僅恢復了 45%,但總營業收入仍恢復到 2019 年水平的 91%。展望未來,我們對第二季度的預訂和收入趨勢感到非常鼓舞,這表明由於休閒和商業需求的強勁,營業收入將完全恢復到季度創紀錄水平。

  • Our revenue initiatives continue to roll out, and Andrew will cover our new fare product in more detail, and we look forward to launching that this quarter and getting another one of our revenue initiatives in place and producing value.

    我們的收入計劃繼續推出,安德魯將更詳細地介紹我們的新票價產品,我們期待在本季度推出該產品,並實施另一項收入計劃並創造價值。

  • We will have another meaningful fuel hedge gain in Q2, and we remain well protected with our fuel hedge portfolio in the second half of this year. Despite higher-than-normal unit cost inflation and productivity drags from underutilizing our assets, we expect to be solidly profitable for Q2 through Q4 and for the full year 2022. We are currently forecasting a healthy profit for Q2 with solid operating margins. Now of course, this is based on our current outlook and barring any unforeseen material events such as another wave that would impact or temporarily slow our progress, but we see no signs of that at this point. It just goes to show the power of our business model and how well our people are managing through a very difficult environment.

    我們將在第二季度獲得另一項有意義的燃料對沖收益,並且在今年下半年我們的燃料對沖投資組合仍然受到良好保護。儘管單位成本通脹高於正常水平,並且由於我們的資產未充分利用而拖累了生產力,但我們預計第二季度至第四季度以及 2022 年全年將實現穩健盈利。我們目前預測第二季度將實現穩健的利潤和穩健的營業利潤率。當然,現在這是基於我們目前的前景,除非出現任何不可預見的重大事件,例如會影響或暫時減緩我們進展的另一波浪潮,但我們目前沒有看到任何跡象。它只是展示了我們商業模式的力量,以及我們的員工在非常困難的環境中的管理能力。

  • Our March results and our current outlook for Q2 represent tremendous progress in our recovery. Even if we aren't fully expected to be optimized with our network fully restored until the end of next year, I'm just really, really proud of our people for their progress today. We've come a long way. I'm just very thankful for their constant resilience.

    我們 3 月份的業績和我們目前對第二季度的展望代表了我們復甦的巨大進展。即使在明年年底之前我們的網絡完全恢復後,我們還沒有完全得到優化,但我真的為我們的員工今天取得的進步感到非常自豪。我們已經走了很長一段路。我非常感謝他們不斷的堅韌。

  • Now key to our recovery is our continued hiring progress, and we now plan to hire and add over 10,000 new employees to the Southwest family this year, and that's net of expected attrition. By the end of this month, we will have welcomed roughly 6,500 new employees in 2022, and that's 5,000 net of attrition. And I'm just really pleased with our hiring progress. We continue to work through lower available staffing and training constraints to keep pace with rebounding travel demand, and we recently reduced our summer flight schedules to match our capacity guidance as we prioritize our operational reliability.

    現在,我們復甦的關鍵是我們持續的招聘進度,我們現在計劃今年在西南大家庭招聘和增加 10,000 多名新員工,這還沒有扣除預期的減員。到本月底,我們將在 2022 年迎來大約 6,500 名新員工,這是 5,000 名員工的淨減員。我對我們的招聘進展感到非常滿意。我們繼續努力通過減少可用人員和培訓限制來跟上旅行需求的反彈,並且我們最近減少了夏季航班時刻表以匹配我們的運力指導,因為我們優先考慮我們的運營可靠性。

  • I believe we have already accounted for the impact of staffing constraints in our full year 2022 guidance on capacity of down 4% versus 2019. But of course, we need to trim more capacity we certainly can, but I'm cautiously optimistic that we can get to a good balance of headcount to operate our planned flight schedules for the remainder of the year while setting ourselves up for resuming more material growth in 2023.

    我相信我們已經在我們的 2022 年全年指導中考慮了人員配置限制的影響,即產能比 2019 年下降 4%。當然,我們當然需要削減更多產能,但我謹慎樂觀地認為我們可以實現員工人數的良好平衡,以在今年剩餘時間內運營我們計劃的航班時刻表,同時為 2023 年恢復更多的物質增長做好準備。

  • You've heard me mention these things before, but we remain focused on a few key priorities for this year: first, getting properly staffed and focusing on our people; second, making progress toward our historic operational reliability and efficiency; third, providing our legendary hospitality; and fourth, returning to consistent profitability. It will take all 59,000 employees working together to execute on these focus areas and deliver a low-cost, high-quality product with low fares and great customer service. That's what our people are good at, and they've been good at that for 50 years, and they just do an incredible job.

    你以前聽我提到過這些事情,但我們今年仍然專注於幾個關鍵優先事項:首先,配備適當的人員並專注於我們的員工;第二,在我們歷史上的運營可靠性和效率方面取得進展;第三,提供我們傳奇般的熱情好客;第四,恢復穩定的盈利能力。需要所有 59,000 名員工共同努力,在這些重點領域開展工作,並以低廉的票價和優質的客戶服務提供低成本、高質量的產品。這就是我們的員工所擅長的,他們在這方面已經擅長了 50 年,而且他們做得非常出色。

  • It's a tough environment, and they've been through a lot. I'm so grateful for them and what they do each and every day. Together, we're making tremendous progress to put this pandemic behind us. And while coming out of the pandemic has proven to be messy. As it was coming into the pandemic, I can assure you that we are very hard at work here at Southwest Airlines to make this company even stronger, and I remain very optimistic about our future.

    這是一個艱難的環境,他們經歷了很多。我非常感謝他們以及他們每天所做的事情。我們一起取得了巨大的進展,以將這種流行病拋在腦後。雖然從大流行中走出來已被證明是一團糟。當它進入大流行時,我可以向你保證,我們在西南航空公司非常努力地工作,以使這家公司更加強大,我對我們的未來仍然非常樂觀。

  • And with that, I will turn it over to Tammy.

    有了這個,我會把它交給塔米。

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Bob, and hello, everyone. First, I'd also like to thank our employees for their resilience in yet another challenging quarter impacted by the pandemic and weather disruptions. The rapid rise of the Omicron variant significantly impacted our business in January and February, resulting in a first quarter net loss of $191 million, excluding special items. March, however, was a much different story as we experienced a rebound in demand and surge in bookings during the month, driving March operating revenues higher in March 2019. This was our first monthly revenue increase relative to respective 2019 levels since the pandemic began.

    謝謝鮑勃,大家好。首先,我還要感謝我們的員工在受大流行和天氣乾擾影響的又一個充滿挑戰的季度中表現出的韌性。 Omicron 變體的迅速崛起在 1 月和 2 月對我們的業務產生了重大影響,導致第一季度淨虧損 1.91 億美元,不包括特殊項目。然而,3 月份的情況卻大不相同,因為當月我們經歷了需求反彈和預訂量激增,推動 3 月份的營業收入在 2019 年 3 月上升。這是自大流行開始以來相對於 2019 年各自水平的首次月度收入增長。

  • Last month, cash sales also represented a monthly record as bookings surged for spring and summer travel. And we posted healthy double-digit margins for the month of March despite the significant rise in market jet fuel prices. Needless to say, I am excited about the strong revenue trends in second quarter, as Andrew will cover in more detail in a minute.

    上個月,由於春季和夏季旅行的預訂量激增,現金銷售額也創下了月度記錄。儘管市場航空燃油價格大幅上漲,但我們在 3 月份實現了健康的兩位數利潤率。不用說,我對第二季度強勁的收入趨勢感到興奮,因為安德魯將在一分鐘內詳細介紹。

  • Taking a look at nonfuel cost, we are tracking in line with our 2022 cost plan with first quarter CASM-X coming in at the favorable end of our previous guidance range at up 17.9% compared with first quarter 2019. Thankfully, favorable airport settlements, better operational performance in March and lower-than-expected incentive pay created some end period cost relief in first quarter relative to our guidance.

    看看非燃料成本,我們正在按照我們的 2022 年成本計劃進行跟踪,第一季度 CASM-X 與 2019 年第一季度相比增長了 17.9%,達到了我們之前指導範圍的有利結束。值得慶幸的是,有利的機場結算,相對於我們的指導,3 月份更好的運營業績和低於預期的激勵薪酬在第一季度創造了一些期末成本減免。

  • As we look ahead, we continue to experience unit cost pressure from operating at suboptimal productivity levels as well as higher inflationary cost pressures, primarily in salaries, wages and benefits. We are leaving our full year CASM-X guidance unchanged at up 12% to 16% versus 2019 as we are still not able to fully utilize our assets or achieve optimal productivity levels due primarily to staffing challenges. That said, we do expect second half 2022 CASM-X growth rate relative to 2019 to ease sequentially from first half 2022.

    展望未來,我們將繼續面臨以次優生產力水平運營以及較高的通脹成本壓力(主要是工資、工資和福利)帶來的單位成本壓力。我們將全年 CASM-X 指導保持不變,與 2019 年相比增長 12% 至 16%,因為我們仍然無法充分利用我們的資產或實現最佳生產力水平,這主要是由於人員配備方面的挑戰。也就是說,我們確實預計 2022 年下半年 CASM-X 相對於 2019 年的增長率將從 2022 年上半年開始逐步放緩。

  • For our second quarter, we currently estimate CASM-X to increase in the range of 14% to 18% when compared with 2019 levels. Roughly half of that increase is a result of continued inflationary pressures in both labor and airport rates, which now includes labor rate increases across all work groups as best as we can estimate at this point given the current labor market and our current outlook for profitability this year. We estimate the incremental labor accruals to be roughly 1 point to CASM-X. The remaining half of the CASM-X increase is attributable to headwinds from operating at suboptimal capacity and productivity levels.

    對於第二季度,我們目前估計 CASM-X 將比 2019 年的水平增加 14% 至 18%。大約一半的增長是勞動力和機場費率持續通脹壓力的結果,考慮到目前的勞動力市場和我們目前的盈利前景,現在包括所有工作組的勞動力率增長,這是我們目前所能估計的最好的情況年。我們估計增量勞動力應計約為 CASM-X 的 1 個點。 CASM-X 增長的剩餘一半歸因於以次優產能和生產力水平運營的不利因素。

  • Our outlook for second quarter capacity remains down approximately 7% from 2019 levels. And while our moderated capacity plans are designed to provide operational relief given our current available staffing challenges, it continues to create unit cost headwinds, particularly with a shorter stage length as we add back higher-frequency business routes, which Andrew will speak to shortly.

    我們對第二季度產能的展望仍較 2019 年水平下降約 7%。鑑於我們目前可用的人員配備挑戰,雖然我們的緩和容量計劃旨在提供運營緩解,但它繼續造成單位成本逆風,特別是在我們增加高頻業務路線時更短的階段長度,安德魯將很快談到。

  • Turning to fuel. Market prices have been on a rise and highly volatile given the current geopolitical climate. Our fuel hedge is providing excellent protection against rising energy prices and significantly offsets the market price increase in jet fuel in first quarter 2022. We are at 63% hedged for second quarter and estimate our second quarter fuel price to be in the $3.05 to $3.15 per gallon range, which is roughly $0.80 higher than our first quarter fuel price. That includes an estimated $0.61 of hedging gain, which represents cost savings of more than $290 million in second quarter alone. Of course, this is a snapshot of our fuel guidance at a point in time and market oil prices and heating cracks have been moving pretty materially on a daily basis.

    轉向燃料。鑑於當前的地緣政治氣候,市場價格一直在上漲且高度波動。我們的燃料對沖為能源價格上漲提供了極好的保護,並大大抵消了 2022 年第一季度航空燃料市場價格的上漲。我們對第二季度的對沖率為 63%,估計我們第二季度的燃料價格將在 3.05 美元至 3.15 美元/每加侖範圍,比我們第一季度的燃油價格高出大約 0.80 美元。這包括估計的 0.61 美元的對沖收益,僅在第二季度就節省了超過 2.9 億美元的成本。當然,這是我們在某個時間點的燃料指導的快照,市場油價和供暖裂縫每天都在發生相當大的變化。

  • By the way, the current energy environment is exactly why we hedge fuel. Even though the hedging gains in the second quarter won't fully offset the rise in market fuel costs, our hedging portfolio is providing meaningful cost mitigation. The fair market value of our fuel hedge in 2022 is estimated at roughly $1 billion.

    順便說一句,當前的能源環境正是我們對沖燃料的原因。儘管第二季度的對沖收益不會完全抵消市場燃料成本的上漲,但我們的對沖投資組合正在提供有意義的成本緩解。 2022 年我們燃料對沖的公平市場價值估計約為 10 億美元。

  • Turning to our fleet. We recently adjusted our order book with Boeing to replace the majority of our -7 MAX firm orders with -8 MAX firm orders in the short term, along with other adjustments, which we outlined in our earnings release this morning. I won't reiterate all the details, but will note a few key highlights. Our current order book now reflects 21 -7 firm orders, 81 -8 firm orders and 12 remaining MAX options in 2022. If you recall from our previous order book as of the end of last year, we had no -8 firm orders in 2022. While we are eager to bring the -7 aircraft into our fleet and remain confident in the aircraft, we simply wanted to go ahead and rebound our 2022 order book to provide more near-term certainty given the ongoing certification process for the -7. We are grateful for the flexibility we have in our order book to shift between -7 and -8 and our plans this year to take 114 aircraft delivery and retire 28 -700 remain unchanged.

    轉向我們的艦隊。我們最近調整了與波音公司的訂單簿,以在短期內用 -8 MAX 公司訂單替換我們的大部分 -7 MAX 公司訂單,以及我們在今天上午的收益發布中概述的其他調整。我不會重複所有細節,但會指出一些關鍵亮點。我們當前的訂單現在反映了 2022 年 21 -7 個確定訂單、81 個 -8 確定訂單和 12 個剩餘的 MAX 期權。如果您回顧我們截至去年年底的先前訂單,我們在 2022 年沒有 -8 個確定訂單. 雖然我們渴望將 -7 飛機納入我們的機隊並對飛機保持信心,但我們只是想繼續前進並重新啟動 2022 年的訂單,以提供更多的近期確定性,因為 -7 正在進行的認證過程。我們感謝訂單簿中在 -7 和 -8 之間切換的靈活性,我們今年交付 114 架飛機並退役 28 -700 架的計劃保持不變。

  • While our CapEx guidance assumes we will exercise the remaining 12 options this year, we maintain flexibility to evaluate that intention as decision points arise each month. And given that the certification for the -7 has been going on for some time, we contemplated the possibility of taking some -8s this year into our 2022 CapEx estimate. Therefore, our CapEx guidance of approximately $5 billion remains unchanged.

    雖然我們的資本支出指導假設我們將在今年行使剩餘的 12 項選擇權,但我們保持靈活性,以便在每個月出現決策點時評估該意圖。鑑於 -7 的認證已經進行了一段時間,我們考慮了今年將一些 -8 納入我們 2022 年資本支出估算的可能性。因此,我們大約 50 億美元的資本支出指引保持不變。

  • As I have mentioned before, we don't expect to incur a CASM-X penalty from holding on to extra aircraft versus accelerating -700 retirement while our capacity remains temporarily moderated. So from an economic standpoint, we may not decide to accelerate further aircraft retirements this year despite having more aircraft in our fleet than needed for current 2022 capacity plans. We are also mindful of aircraft and growth needs for 2023 as we plan to continue restoring the network.

    正如我之前提到的,我們預計不會因持有額外飛機而不是加速 -700 退役而遭受 CASM-X 懲罰,而我們的運力仍暫時放緩。因此,從經濟角度來看,儘管我們機隊中的飛機數量超過了當前 2022 年容量計劃所需的數量,但我們今年可能不會決定加速進一步的飛機退役。隨著我們計劃繼續恢復網絡,我們還注意到 2023 年的飛機和增長需求。

  • On our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $15.7 billion. Our leverage is at a very manageable 56%, and we continue to pay down and retire debt as opportunities arise as we have done with a portion of our convertible debt. We continue to be the only U.S. airline with an investment-grade rating by all 3 rating agencies, which remains one of our key competitive advantages.

    在我們的資產負債表上,我們以 157 億美元的現金和短期投資結束了本季度。我們的槓桿率處於非常可控的 56%,隨著機會的出現,我們將繼續償還和償還債務,就像我們對部分可轉換債務所做的那樣。我們仍然是唯一一家獲得所有 3 家評級機構投資級評級的美國航空公司,這仍然是我們的主要競爭優勢之一。

  • In closing, our second quarter financial trends are strong. Barring any unforeseen events or trend changes, we expect solid second quarter profit and operating margins. Our financial position and ample liquidity allows us to continue investing for the future so that we are ready to resume growth as soon as we are first able to restore our network and get staffing to desired levels. And we intend to grow. We are a growth airline. We have great momentum, and we are excited about the ample opportunities in front of us.

    最後,我們的第二季度財務趨勢強勁。除非發生任何不可預見的事件或趨勢變化,我們預計第二季度的利潤和營業利潤率將保持穩健。我們的財務狀況和充足的流動性使我們能夠繼續為未來進行投資,以便在我們首先能夠恢復我們的網絡並將人員配備達到所需水平時,我們準備好恢復增長。我們打算成長。我們是一家成長型航空公司。我們勢頭強勁,我們對擺在我們面前的大量機會感到興奮。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Andrew.

    有了這個,我會把它交給安德魯。

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thank you, Tammy. I will provide some additional color on our revenue trends and outlook and point you to our earnings release for more detail.

    謝謝你,塔米。我將為我們的收入趨勢和前景提供一些額外的顏色,並為您指出我們的收益發布以獲取更多詳細信息。

  • Looking first at Q1, January and February passenger revenues incurred 2 main negative impacts. First, $380 million due to softness in bookings and elevated passenger cancellations attributable to the Omicron variant. And second, an additional $50 million in January due to flight cancellations related to available staffing challenges, which were made worse by winter weather. However, we experienced a very different dynamic in March as we saw a surge in leisure travel and bookings along with a significant pickup in close-in demand. The improvement in March exceeded our original expectations for both leisure and business demand. March managed business revenues were down 36% versus March 2019 compared to our latest guidance of down 40% and put us back on a nice improvement trajectory from pre-Omicron performance in December of 2021.

    首先看第一季度,1 月和 2 月的客運收入產生了兩個主要的負面影響。首先,由於預訂疲軟和由於 Omicron 變體導致的乘客取消增加而導致的 3.8 億美元。其次,由於與可用人員配備挑戰相關的航班取消,1 月份額外增加了 5000 萬美元,冬季天氣使情況變得更糟。然而,我們在 3 月份經歷了截然不同的動態,因為我們看到休閒旅遊和預訂量激增,以及近距離需求大幅回升。 3 月份的改善超出了我們對休閒和商務需求的最初預期。與 2019 年 3 月相比,3 月份管理的業務收入下降了 36%,而我們最新的指引下降了 40%,這使我們從 2021 年 12 月的 Omicron 之前的表現回到了良好的改善軌跡。

  • In fact, managed business revenues improved 34 points from January's down 70% to March's down 36%. We experienced higher managed business passengers. And most notably, March marked the first month since the pandemic began where managed business fares surpassed 2019 levels.

    事實上,託管業務收入從 1 月份的 70% 下降到 3 月份的 36% 下降了 34 個百分點。我們經歷了管理更高的商務旅客。最值得注意的是,3 月標誌著自大流行開始以來管理的商業票價超過 2019 年水平的第一個月。

  • Our revenue initiatives performed well during Q1 despite the Omicron impact. We saw benefits from our GDS initiative given the significant bounce-back of business demand in March. We also had a strong performance from our loyalty program with other revenue up 43% versus Q1 2019, which was assisted by incremental revenue from our new co-brand credit card agreement with Chase. A nice attribute from our new co-brand credit card agreement is that the revenue stream is rather insulated or diversified from the passenger revenue impact from COVID wave as long as consumers' spending remains healthy. And Q1 retail sales spend per cardholder and overall portfolio size continue to grow versus 2019.

    儘管受到 Omicron 的影響,我們的收入計劃在第一季度表現良好。鑑於 3 月份業務需求的顯著反彈,我們看到了 GDS 計劃帶來的好處。我們的忠誠度計劃也表現強勁,其他收入與 2019 年第一季度相比增長了 43%,這得益於我們與 Chase 的新聯合品牌信用卡協議帶來的收入增加。我們新的聯合品牌信用卡協議的一個很好的屬性是,只要消費者的支出保持健康,收入流就可以與 COVID 浪潮對乘客收入的影響相當隔離或多樣化。與 2019 年相比,第一季度每位持卡人的零售支出和整體投資組合規模繼續增長。

  • Now our new market performance was impacted by the Omicron variant to a greater degree than the rest of our network. While Hawaii growth markets underperformed expectations slightly in March, largely driven by the COVID protocols that have since been lifted, we are encouraged by the strong demand we saw in March and heading into the summer months for Hawaii. We continue to adjust our Hawaii offering to best suit our customers' needs and allocate more of our capacity to business markets, and this can be seen in the changes beginning in June.

    現在,我們的新市場表現受到 Omicron 變體的影響比我們網絡的其他部分更大。雖然夏威夷的增長市場在 3 月份的表現略遜於預期,這主要是受此後取消的 COVID 協議的推動,但我們對 3 月份看到的強勁需求以及夏威夷進入夏季月份的強勁需求感到鼓舞。我們將繼續調整我們的夏威夷產品以最好地滿足客戶的需求,並將更多的產能分配給商業市場,這可以從 6 月開始的變化中看出。

  • In non-Hawaii new markets, we saw a modest outperformance versus expectations due to the sharp uptick in travel demand in March, which follow the general trend of the rest of the network of broad-based improvement across all geographies. All told, for Q1, we came in at the midpoint of our operating revenue guidance at down 9%. While the Omicron impact was higher than anticipated in January and February, the improvement in March outperformed our expectations, and we're very pleased with the recent revenue trends.

    在非夏威夷新市場中,由於 3 月份旅行需求的急劇上升,我們看到了與預期相比適度的表現,這遵循了所有地區其他網絡廣泛改善的總體趨勢。總而言之,對於第一季度,我們處於營業收入指導的中點,下降了 9%。儘管 1 月和 2 月 Omicron 的影響高於預期,但 3 月的改善超出了我們的預期,我們對最近的收入趨勢感到非常滿意。

  • Looking at Q2, the positive momentum continues, and we're expecting the operating revenues to turn positive versus Q2 2019, estimated to be up 8% to 12% despite capacity below 2019 levels and managed business revenues yet to fully recover. As we were already operating at pre-pandemic load factors in the low to mid-80% range, our revenue improvement outlook is primarily due to higher passenger yields, both leisure and business. We expect another solid contribution from our revenue initiatives, in particular, with GDS as managed business revenues are expected to improve sequentially. April managed business revenues are expected to be down 30% versus April 2019, and we expect to see sequential improvement in May and June.

    從第二季度來看,積極勢頭仍在繼續,我們預計營業收入將與 2019 年第二季度相比轉為正數,儘管產能低於 2019 年水平並且管理的業務收入尚未完全恢復,但估計將增長 8% 至 12%。由於我們已經在大流行前的低至 80% 範圍內的載客率下運營,我們的收入改善前景主要是由於休閒和商務旅客收益率的提高。我們預計我們的收入計劃將再次做出堅實的貢獻,特別是 GDS 作為託管業務的收入預計將連續提高。與 2019 年 4 月相比,4 月份管理的業務收入預計將下降 30%,我們預計 5 月和 6 月將出現連續改善。

  • We also expect our new fare product to roll out this quarter, which we call Wanna Get Away Plus. Having 4 fare columns displayed in our website is a natural evolution that is geared toward offering customers the attributes they want to choose while not taking anything away. The general attributes of Wanna Get Away Plus are: the introduction of transferable flight credits; more flexibility with same-day confirmed change in standby benefits; and a higher earned multiple for Rapid Rewards points.

    我們還預計我們的新票價產品將在本季度推出,我們稱之為 Wanna Get Away Plus。在我們的網站上顯示 4 個票價欄是一種自然演變,旨在為客戶提供他們想要選擇的屬性,同時不帶走任何東西。 Wanna Get Away Plus 的一般屬性是:引入可轉讓的飛行積分;更靈活的當日確認備用福利變化; Rapid Rewards 積分獲得的倍數更高。

  • At the same time, our Anytime fares will gain the express flyby security lane and priority check-in perks where available as well as early bird check-in benefits. We believe this will better represent the product offerings that our customers want and/or when to pay for, and it has the added benefit of generating incremental revenue for the company. Given the timing of the rollout, we aren't expecting a material benefit in Q2, but we are expecting a solid revenue contribution in the second half of 2022.

    同時,我們的 Anytime 票價將獲得快速飛越安全通道和優先值機特權(如果可用)以及早鳥值機福利。我們相信這將更好地代表我們的客戶想要和/或何時支付的產品,並且它具有為公司創造增量收入的額外好處。鑑於推出的時間,我們預計第二季度不會有實質性收益,但我們預計 2022 年下半年將有穩健的收入貢獻。

  • Lastly, on our revenue initiatives, our revenue management system continues its progressive rollout. Before I wrap up, I want to share some color on our capacity and published flight schedules. We continue to expect our Q2 capacity to decline 7% versus Q2 2019. While this is a 2-point sequential increase in Q1, we expect a 5-point sequential decrease in stage length from Q1 as we establish trips in shorter-haul markets aimed at business travel and in an effort to provide more recoverability to the operation with more frequencies. We have now adjusted our published flight schedules through Labor Day to match flight activity to our 2022 capacity guidance.

    最後,在我們的收入計劃中,我們的收入管理系統繼續逐步推出。在結束之前,我想分享一下我們的運力和已發布的航班時刻表。我們繼續預計我們的第二季度運力將比 2019 年第二季度下降 7%。雖然這在第一季度連續增長 2 個百分點,但我們預計階段長度將比第一季度連續減少 5 個百分點,因為我們在短途市場建立了旨在在商務旅行中,並努力以更多頻率為操作提供更多可恢復性。我們現在已經調整了通過勞動節發布的航班時刻表,以使航班活動與我們的 2022 年運力指導相匹配。

  • In terms of network restoration, we will be roughly 80% restored by June based on trips. And based on our full year capacity guidance of down 4% versus 2019, we expect to be roughly 85% restored by December. As we have discussed, it will take us some time to rebuild the network that we want given current staffing constraints. We will continue to expect to restore the vast majority of our network by the end of 2023.

    在網絡恢復方面,我們將在 6 月份根據行程恢復大約 80%。根據我們與 2019 年相比下降 4% 的全年產能指導,我們預計到 12 月將恢復約 85%。正如我們所討論的,鑑於當前的人員限制,我們需要一些時間來重建我們想要的網絡。我們將繼續期望在 2023 年底之前恢復我們的絕大多數網絡。

  • And with that, I will turn it over to Mike.

    有了這個,我會把它交給邁克。

  • Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

    Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

  • Well, thank you, Andrew, and hello, everyone. On our last earnings call, I walked through the availability of staffing and our challenges that we face due to the Omicron variant and the roughly 5,000 employees that became sick in the first 3 weeks of January. As a result of that, we reinstated an incentive pay program that ran from January 9 through February 8. The incentive pay program work is designed. Our employees responded very well. They picked up extra shifts that helped us cover the flight schedule and those employees out sick. While the program cost us $127 million, it afforded us an opportunity to more quickly stabilize the operation.

    好吧,謝謝你,安德魯,大家好。在我們上次的財報電話會議上,我介紹了由於 Omicron 變體和大約 5,000 名員工在 1 月的前 3 週生病而面臨的人員配備和我們面臨的挑戰。因此,我們恢復了從 1 月 9 日到 2 月 8 日運行的激勵薪酬計劃。激勵薪酬計劃的工作是設計好的。我們的員工反應很好。他們安排了額外的班次,幫助我們完成了航班時刻表和那些生病的員工。雖然該計劃耗資 1.27 億美元,但它為我們提供了更快穩定運營的機會。

  • In the first 7 days of January, our on-time performance was 41.2%. From January 8 through mid-February, that on-time performance jumped to 85.1%. That put us #2 for on-time performance in the industry, and that was a monumental feat after the start to the year that we had. What I think is most impressive about our people is that they not only stepped up to cover the extra shifts during what can only be described as an Omicron crisis, but they put Southwest Airlines in the top spot for customer satisfaction in January for the DOT's Air Travel Consumer Report, and we remained in the top spot among marketing shares in February as well.

    在 1 月的前 7 天,我們的準時率為 41.2%。從 1 月 8 日到 2 月中旬,準點率躍升至 85.1%。這使我們在行業準時表現方面排名第二,這是我們年初以來的一項不朽壯舉。我認為我們的員工最令人印象深刻的是,他們不僅在只能被描述為 Omicron 危機期間加緊處理額外的班次,而且他們在 1 月份將西南航空公司置於 DOT 航空公司客戶滿意度的首位旅遊消費者報告,我們在 2 月份的營銷份額中也保持在首位。

  • Our people have been through a lot these last few years, and just to accomplish that in the first 2 months of this year is just superb. And my sincere thanks to everyone out there on the front line that's working hard for Southwest and/or taking great care of our customers. I am very pleased that our employees and our customers can now make a decision for themselves as to whether or not they want to wear a mask on board our aircraft. I know that enforcing mass compliance has been a tough endeavor for our employees for a long time now, and they deserve a break. The science supports the mask mandate expiring. So great news on that front.

    在過去的幾年裡,我們的員工經歷了很多,而僅僅在今年的前 2 個月就完成了這件事,真是太棒了。我衷心感謝在前線為西南航空努力工作和/或照顧我們客戶的每一個人。我很高興我們的員工和客戶現在可以自行決定是否要在我們的飛機上戴口罩。我知道,長期以來,對我們的員工來說,強制執行大規模合規一直是一項艱鉅的工作,他們應該休息一下。科學支持面具授權到期。在這方面真是好消息。

  • Relative to early January, our operational performance in February and March improved. Our February flight levels stayed relatively low at 3,300 flights per day, and then they increased to roughly 3,400 flights a day in March. And as Andrew mentioned, travel demand in March surged with load factors in the mid-80s. We anticipated a ramp-up in demand, but we did run into a few challenges during March related to weather and ATC delay programs. In mid-March, we had Winter Storm Quinlan. That impacted many of our Mid-Atlantic and Northeast airports. And then we also had a line of severe thunderstorms that stretched from the Gulf of Mexico and across Florida, and that resulted in air traffic management programs, operational adjustments and then resulting flight cancellations. In early April, we experienced a technology outage that caused similar issues, and it took a couple of days to work through that event. We've had a tough time during irregular operations given our center network and some of the unanticipated air traffic control slowdowns.

    相對於 1 月初,我們 2 月和 3 月的經營業績有所改善。我們 2 月份的航班量保持在相對較低的水平,每天 3,300 架次,然後在 3 月份增加到每天大約 3,400 架次。正如安德魯所說,3 月份的旅行需求隨著 80 年代中期的載客率飆升。我們預計需求會增加,但我們在 3 月份確實遇到了一些與天氣和 ATC 延誤計劃有關的挑戰。 3 月中旬,我們遇到了冬季風暴昆蘭。這影響了我們在大西洋中部和東北部的許多機場。然後我們還遇到了從墨西哥灣延伸到佛羅里達州的一系列嚴重雷暴,這導致了空中交通管理計劃、運營調整,然後導致航班取消。 4 月初,我們經歷了一次導致類似問題的技術中斷,我們花了幾天時間來解決該事件。鑑於我們的中心網絡和一些意料之外的空中交通管制放緩,我們在不正常的運營中度過了一段艱難的時期。

  • The good news is that we've made some adjustments to our network starting this month that we believe will help and I'll speak to them more shortly.

    好消息是,我們從本月開始對我們的網絡進行了一些調整,我們相信這會有所幫助,我會盡快與他們交談。

  • On the staffing front, we continue to aggressively hire. And as Bob mentioned, we're now targeting over 10,000 new employees this year, net of attrition. The majority of this hiring is in the operations group, and it's imperative that we are properly staffed. The goal with the majority of these hires is to cover our published flight schedules and our capacity plans this year. But also, we intend to build some buffer so that we're ready to resume growth in the near future and get ahead of our spring and summer 2023 staffing needs. We are making great progress with hiring, but we have thousands of employees that are in training, and they're still gaining proficiency. So it just takes time before we'll going to have a full complement of frontline employees that are on the job versus either being a new hire and still in the training pipeline.

    在人員配備方面,我們繼續積極招聘。正如鮑勃所提到的,我們今年的目標是增加 10,000 多名新員工(扣除減員)。大部分招聘都在運營團隊中,我們必須配備適當的人員。這些員工中的大多數的目標是涵蓋我們今年公佈的航班時刻表和容量計劃。而且,我們打算建立一些緩衝,以便我們準備在不久的將來恢復增長,並提前滿足 2023 年春季和夏季的人員需求。我們在招聘方面取得了長足的進步,但我們有數千名員工正在接受培訓,他們仍在不斷提高熟練度。因此,我們需要時間才能擁有完整的一線員工在工作中,而不是成為新員工並仍在培訓管道中。

  • So we've made trade-offs with lower capacity in order to support operational reliability. And the combination of this and the continued hiring should help us as we move into the summer.

    因此,我們在容量較低的情況下進行了權衡,以支持運營可靠性。在我們進入夏季時,這與持續招聘的結合應該會對我們有所幫助。

  • On behavior trends and hours worked per employee, we continue to lag prepandemic metrics. We're still experiencing higher sick time, more employees on inactive status and overall staffing availability challenges. We've also had some constraints on training throughput, but we believe we have a path to get the sufficient headcount in our key operational groups this year. It remains a work in progress, and it's one of our top priorities. Until then, our capacity will remain muted versus the aircraft that we would like to return to service to accelerate the network restoration.

    在行為趨勢和每位員工的工作時間方面,我們繼續落後於大流行前的指標。我們仍在經歷更長的病假時間、更多處於非活動狀態的員工以及整體人員配備的挑戰。我們對培訓吞吐量也有一些限制,但我們相信今年我們有辦法在我們的關鍵運營組中獲得足夠的員工人數。它仍在進行中,這是我們的首要任務之一。在那之前,與我們希望恢復服務以加速網絡恢復的飛機相比,我們的運力將保持沉默。

  • And lastly, Andrew mentioned that we expect our average stage length to decrease by about 5 points from the first quarter to the second quarter, and that should help us with our operational recoverability in Q2. We're adding short-haul flights in the business-oriented markets. That provides us more options when we have weather or ATC delays. We won't snap back to a historical network composition overnight, but I believe that our operational performance will continue to improve as we restore the network through the end of next year. That should provide the foundation to recapture better operating leverage, and we're also working on other initiatives to improve overall efficiency and return to our historic levels of productivity.

    最後,安德魯提到,我們預計從第一季度到第二季度,我們的平均階段長度將減少約 5 個百分點,這應該有助於我們在第二季度實現運營可恢復性。我們正在面向商務的市場增加短途航班。當我們遇到天氣或 ATC 延誤時,這為我們提供了更多選擇。我們不會在一夜之間恢復到歷史網絡構成,但我相信隨著我們在明年年底恢復網絡,我們的運營績效將繼續改善。這應該為重新獲得更好的運營槓桿奠定基礎,而且我們還在開展其他舉措,以提高整體效率並恢復到我們歷史上的生產力水平。

  • And so with that, Ryan, I'll turn it back over to you.

    所以,瑞恩,我會把它還給你。

  • Ryan Martinez - VP of IR

    Ryan Martinez - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Mike. I believe we have analysts queued up for questions. (Operator Instructions) So Chad, please go ahead and begin our analyst Q&A.

    謝謝你,邁克。我相信我們已經讓分析師排隊等待提問。 (操作員說明)Chad,請繼續開始我們的分析師問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

  • Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

    Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

  • A quick question on the corporate side. Can you just give us a little more detail on what you expect the corporate ramp trajectory to be through the rest of the year into next year? And also, we're hearing from some corporate accounts that they expect a fair bit of competition in the second half of this year going into '23 when it comes to negotiating kind of just corporate travel agreements just given that we're kind of coming off this trough and everyone is going to be fighting for a slice of pie. Or do you have any visibility into that or not?

    關於公司方面的一個快速問題。您能否詳細介紹一下您預計公司在今年剩餘時間到明年的增長軌跡?而且,我們從一些公司賬戶中獲悉,他們預計今年下半年將進入 23 年,在談判一種公正的公司旅行協議時會出現相當大的競爭,因為我們即將到來離開這個低谷,每個人都會為一塊餡餅而戰。或者你是否對此有任何了解?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Ravi, it's Bob. I'll start, and then I'll let Andrew chime in on more of the specifics. I think we -- while the -- our managed business recovery has obviously lagged leisure -- I mean leisure is well ahead of 2019 at this point. We've seen a really robust recovery. So I think we -- in March, we were down about 36% compared to 2019, but that's a 34-point recovery from January, which is just a really significant trend. It looks like April is going to be about 30%, down 30%, and I would expect that the -- from what we can see, the trends continue to improve through May and then through June.

    拉維,我是鮑勃。我會開始,然後我會讓安德魯插話更多細節。我認為我們 - 雖然 - 我們管理的業務復甦明顯落後於休閒 - 我的意思是休閒在這一點上遠遠領先於 2019 年。我們已經看到了非常強勁的複蘇。所以我認為我們在 3 月份與 2019 年相比下降了約 36%,但與 1 月份相比已經恢復了 34 個百分點,這是一個非常重要的趨勢。看起來 4 月份將下降 30% 左右,下降 30%,而且我預計 - 從我們所看到的情況來看,趨勢會在 5 月和 6 月繼續改善。

  • And while it's a long ways away, you never -- it's all a forecast, I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility that we could have managed business revenues fully recovered to 2019 levels by the end of this year. But I'll let Andrew add some details as well. Andrew?

    雖然還有很長的路要走,但你永遠不會——這都是一個預測,我不會把它排除在我們本可以在今年年底前將業務收入完全恢復到 2019 年水平的可能性範圍之外。但我也會讓 Andrew 添加一些細節。安德魯?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Bob. The only thing I'd add to that initial macro point of view is if you kind of go back further than January and kind of April of last year when corporates really started traveling again, we have a nice strong trend line, but it has some ups and downs with COVID waves. And so now that we're kind of out of Omicron and seeing a sharp comeback, it's still on that same trajectory, which leads one to believe that it will get to what Bob said. So we have pretty good confidence in this growth because it's grown and rebound strongly through at least 2 COVID waves so far. So that's good news.

    是的。謝謝,鮑勃。我對最初的宏觀觀點唯一要補充的是,如果你回溯到比去年 1 月和 4 月公司真正開始再次旅行時更遠的地方,我們有一個很好的強勁趨勢線,但它有一些COVID 浪潮的起伏。所以現在我們已經脫離了 Omicron 並且看到了一個急劇的捲土重來,它仍然在同樣的軌跡上,這導致人們相信它會達到 Bob 所說的。因此,我們對這種增長充滿信心,因為到目前為止,它已經在至少 2 次 COVID 浪潮中增長並強勁反彈。所以這是個好消息。

  • And in regard to corporate contracts, a lot of them become stale because originally a lot to renegotiate during the pandemic. So we fully expect there will be kind of a big season of renewal of contracts in the fall, as you mentioned. And given -- during the period from pre pandemic to now, we've greatly transformed our offering in managed business through both the GDS we've talked about, but also ramping up our Southwest Business team with the tools for TMCs and [CTMs] as well as more account managers, we think that kind of broad-based renewal is actually beneficial for us and our play for a bigger share of this pie. So we're encouraged by the renewal season coming up this fall.

    而關於公司合同,其中很多變得陳舊,因為在大流行期間最初有很多需要重新談判。因此,正如您所提到的,我們完全預計秋季會有一個大的續約季節。鑑於 - 從大流行前到現在,我們已經通過我們討論過的 GDS 極大地改變了我們在託管業務中的產品,而且還通過 TMC 和 [CTM] 工具加強了我們的西南業務團隊以及更多的客戶經理,我們認為這種基礎廣泛的更新實際上對我們有利,我們也可以在這個蛋糕中佔據更大的份額。因此,我們對今年秋天即將到來的更新季節感到鼓舞。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question will be from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

    下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • Maybe one for Andrew. Sorry to stay with you. Just regarding the strong implied yield improvement in 2Q. If we assume a stable macro backdrop, so stable economy, stable fuel, how do you think about the progression of yields for the balance of the year? I'm not asking for explicit guidance or anything like that. But if the economy does not change and fuel does not change, is there anything you're thinking about which would cause yields to change seasonality or otherwise?

    也許一個給安德魯。很抱歉和你在一起。僅就第二季度強勁的隱含產量改善而言。如果我們假設一個穩定的宏觀背景,那麼穩定的經濟,穩定的燃料,您如何看待今年餘額的收益率進展?我不要求明確的指導或類似的東西。但是,如果經濟沒有變化,燃料沒有變化,您是否正在考慮會導致產量季節性或其他變化的任何事情?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • What we did -- the economy printout today wasn't a positive one, so I don't know how long we can say the economy doesn't change. But at least, consumer spending was still strong in the underlying detail of that. So I think the broader picture, though, is that demand for air travel, especially for leisure, is above 2019 levels, as Bob mentioned. However, supply is not.

    我們所做的——今天的經濟數據並不樂觀,所以我不知道我們可以說經濟沒有改變多久。但至少,從根本上看,消費者支出仍然強勁。因此,我認為更廣泛的情況是,正如鮑勃所說,對航空旅行的需求,尤其是休閒需求,高於 2019 年的水平。然而,供應不是。

  • And we don't see a pathway yet for supply to get back to 2019 levels until much later this year. So a backdrop of demand exceeding supply is what you can give broad based of price increases that we've seen, mostly from the lack of discount fares versus kind of fare structures being increased. So I think that's a tailwind we have going on.

    直到今年晚些時候,我們還沒有看到供應恢復到 2019 年水平的途徑。因此,在需求超過供應的背景下,您可以給出我們所看到的價格上漲的廣泛基礎,主要是由於缺乏折扣票價而不是增加了某種票價結構。所以我認為這是我們正在進行的順風。

  • Now the wildcard is the economy and how -- what that does over the near term. Certainly, there are headwinds with [Fed] increases and stuff like that, but the underlying consumer spending seems to be robust. So I feel like we have pretty good confidence in the kind of continued demand outpacing supply, at least for our guidance range. Does that answer your question?

    現在,通配符是經濟以及如何 - 在短期內會發生什麼。當然,[美聯儲]加息等存在不利因素,但潛在的消費者支出似乎很強勁。所以我覺得我們對持續的需求超過供應充滿信心,至少在我們的指導範圍內。這是否回答你的問題?

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • That's helpful. Yes, I couldn't get you to completely agree to no change on macro, but I think that's helpful color. Just as a follow-up, is there any way to think about yields on this 2019 baseline on a same-store basis? I mean, I know, the network looks very different than it did back then, and you alluded to that, but how much of this RASM expansion is the result of not flying lower marginal RASM routes because of your constraints right now?

    這很有幫助。是的,我不能讓你完全同意不改變宏,但我認為這是有用的顏色。作為後續,有沒有什麼方法可以在同店的基礎上考慮這個 2019 年基線的收益率?我的意思是,我知道,網絡看起來與當時非常不同,您也提到了這一點,但是由於您現在的限制,這種 RASM 擴展有多少是由於沒有飛行較低邊際 RASM 航線的結果?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Well, it's hard to generalize because we have the network that is different, and you have demand being different of leisure and business being separated by so much. And I did mention that business fares are up versus 2019. So I think you can see broad-based demand exceed supply is the driver regardless of the route structure. So now you'll still have variations in your route by route, but I think it's still a broad-based demand strength and a broad-based supply insufficiency is what's behind all this. Getting kind of a little more detailed, I think, doesn't really show you any different trends than that kind of broad-based trend I talked about.

    嗯,這很難一概而論,因為我們有不同的網絡,你有不同的需求,休閒和商務相距甚遠。我確實提到商務票價與 2019 年相比有所上漲。所以我認為你可以看到,無論路線結構如何,廣泛的需求超過供應是驅動因素。所以現在你的路線仍然會有變化,但我認為這仍然是廣泛的需求力量,而廣泛的供應不足是這一切背後的原因。我認為,稍微詳細一點,並沒有真正向您展示與我談到的那種廣泛的趨勢不同的趨勢。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • And Duane, I would just add the same thing. You've got this set up in the second quarter here. Again, it's all a forecast where you have overall operating revenue performance up 8% to 12% on capacity down 7%. I mean so that's a significant amount of strength. And that's still on the backs of your managed business being down. The talk about in April sort of the 30% range.

    和杜安,我只想添加同樣的東西。你已經在第二季度完成了這個設置。同樣,這完全是一個預測,您的整體營業收入表現將上升 8% 至 12%,而產能下降 7%。我的意思是,這是一個很大的力量。這仍然是在您管理的業務下降的背景下。 4 月份的討論大約是 30% 的範圍。

  • The other piece of this, too, is as we restore our network, there is -- and we've got 125 aircraft that we need to put into restoring the network this year and next year. That all comes on at lower than normal risk in terms of the typical yield drags you might see as you add new cities or new routes because these are routes that we've had before, and they're connecting cities that we have a presence in. So I think they come on without those penalties.

    另一部分也是,當我們恢復我們的網絡時,我們需要投入 125 架飛機來恢復今年和明年的網絡。就您在添加新城市或新路線時可能會看到的典型收益拖累而言,這一切的風險低於正常風險,因為這些是我們以前擁有的路線,並且它們正在連接我們所在的城市. 所以我認為他們在沒有那些處罰的情況下上場。

  • At the same time, again, if the trends hold, you're restoring business at a faster rate, which also helps on the yield side. So -- now who knows what's going to happen to the macro economy? There's a lot of different things that can occur out there with the Fed moves and potential for recession. And I think what's helpful there is that, despite all of that, consumer savings is still more than double what it was coming into the pandemic. So there's a lot of consumer strength out there in terms of what they've saved and what could be spent. But anyway, hopefully, that helps a bit.

    同時,如果趨勢保持不變,您將以更快的速度恢復業務,這也有助於提高收益率。那麼——現在誰知道宏觀經濟會發生什麼?隨著美聯儲的舉措和衰退的可能性,可能會發生很多不同的事情。而且我認為有幫助的是,儘管如此,消費者的儲蓄仍然是大流行時的兩倍多。因此,就他們節省的錢和可以花的錢而言,有很多消費者力量。但無論如何,希望這會有所幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question will be from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

    下一個問題將來自巴克萊的 Brandon Oglenski。

  • Brandon Robert Oglenski - VP & Senior Equity Analyst

    Brandon Robert Oglenski - VP & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Maybe this one is for Bob or Mike. But can you guys just help us understand where the constraints are right now on operating more capacity? Because I hear you that you need to restore the network to pre-pandemic levels, but your stage length is only down maybe 2% here. Your FTEs look like they're almost back to 2019 levels. Now maybe with a lot more new folks that need to be trained up. But is this really a pilot issue? Are you guys having trouble filling trainee classes? Can you speak to some of the constraints and what it's going to take to get back to where you want to be?

    也許這個是給鮑勃或邁克的。但是,你們能不能幫助我們了解目前運營更多產能的限制因素在哪裡?因為我聽說您需要將網絡恢復到大流行前的水平,但是您的階段長度在這裡僅下降了 2%。您的 FTE 看起來幾乎回到了 2019 年的水平。現在也許有更多的新人需要接受培訓。但這真的是一個試點問題嗎?你們在填寫實習生課程時遇到困難嗎?你能談談一些限制,以及要回到你想去的地方需要做什麼嗎?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Yes, Brandon, let me take a shot, and then Mike can add a lot of detail there. I think we are hiring progress since we restarted in the fall has just been tremendous. We've hired thousands of folks. We're now projecting that we'll hire over 10,000 this year. Obviously, there's some attrition in there as well, but I'm just really proud of our people department and our hiring teams for making that happen from literally a dead start last fall. If you look at that in aggregate, we are still today below our total FTE headcount in 2019, so we haven't caught 2019 yet. It's just 1 basic point.

    是的,布蘭登,讓我拍一張,然後邁克可以在那裡添加很多細節。我認為自從我們在秋季重新啟動以來,我們的招聘工作取得了巨大的進步。我們已經僱傭了數千人。我們現在預計今年我們將僱用超過 10,000 人。顯然,那裡也有一些人員流失,但我真的為我們的人事部門和招聘團隊感到自豪,因為他們在去年秋天從一個死氣沉沉的開始就做到了這一點。如果您總體來看,我們今天仍然低於 2019 年的 FTE 總人數,所以我們還沒有趕上 2019 年。這只是1個基本點。

  • The other is, as you think about just all the folks that we've hired overall, they're not all working or working proficiently yet. So we've hired roughly 8,000 in that time period, but 1,600 in a typical month right now, they're in training. So they're not out there on the frontline. They're not working. So they're in training, so they don't really add to our ability to fly and add capacity. If you look at the remainder, we have something on the order of over 15% of our entire workforce that is new since the fall. So they're out there working, but you know what it's like to have a new job. They're just not proficient yet. They're not efficient. They're still learning their positions. So that comes into account as you think about our ability to restore capacity.

    另一個是,當您考慮我們整體僱用的所有人員時,他們還沒有全部工作或工作熟練。所以我們在那個時期僱傭了大約 8,000 人,但現在通常一個月有 1,600 人,他們正在接受培訓。所以他們不在前線。他們不工作。所以他們正在訓練中,所以他們並沒有真正增加我們的飛行能力和增加容量。如果您查看其餘部分,自秋季以來,我們有超過 15% 的員工是新員工。所以他們在外面工作,但你知道有一份新工作是什麼感覺。他們只是還不熟練。他們效率不高。他們仍在學習他們的立場。因此,當您考慮我們恢復容量的能力時,就會考慮到這一點。

  • Now when you get to the where are you most constrained, definitely, it's pilots. And to some extent, it's our flight instructors to train our pilots. We had several thousand pilots go out on the long-term leaves with COVID. We had another 640, I think, take early retirement. Job 1 was to get everybody that was out on leave back trained and flying, and we just got that completed literally in February of this year. And then job 2 is to replace the pilots that took early retirement. And we're just over half the way through that, maybe 2/3, so we haven't caught that back up yet as well. So I would tell you that, yes, the chief constraint right now is on the pilot side. But Mike, please add some more detail.

    現在,當您到達最受限制的地方時,肯定是飛行員。在某種程度上,是我們的飛行教官在訓練我們的飛行員。我們有數千名飛行員因新冠病毒而長期休假。我認為,我們還有另外 640 人提前退休。工作 1 是讓每個休假的人都接受訓練和飛行,而我們剛剛在今年 2 月完成了這項工作。然後工作2是替換提前退休的飛行員。我們剛剛完成了一半,也許是 2/3,所以我們還沒有趕上它。所以我會告訴你,是的,目前的主要限制是在試點方面。但是邁克,請添加更多細節。

  • Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

    Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

  • Yes, Brandon, I think most of the other work groups that we hire to really is just a one-step process. We go out, we find the people. We bring them in, we interview. For the pilots, it really is, for us, it's a 2-step process. Step #1 is making sure that we have flight instructors in place that can, so we can get to our maximum capacity of flight training. And so that's where we're focused at this point in time is making sure that the slots that we have for training are focused on flight instructors, so we can have -- we can get up to maximum capacity in terms of our hiring towards the end of this year and into next year. So that's step #1.

    是的,布蘭登,我認為我們聘請的大多數其他工作組實際上只是一個步驟。我們出去,我們找到人。我們把他們帶進來,我們採訪。對於飛行員來說,對我們來說,這確實是一個兩步的過程。第 1 步是確保我們有合適的飛行教官,這樣我們才能達到最大的飛行訓練能力。因此,這就是我們目前關注的重點是確保我們用於培訓的職位都集中在飛行教官身上,這樣我們就可以擁有 - 我們可以在招聘方面達到最大容量今年年底和明年。這就是第 1 步。

  • And then in terms of access to pilots, we still have -- we're an airline that pilots love to come to. We have a long history of success here. And so we're able to go fill up our classes and have access to the pilots, at least certainly here in the next year or 2.

    然後在接觸飛行員方面,我們仍然 - 我們是飛行員喜歡來的航空公司。我們在這裡有著悠久的成功歷史。因此,我們能夠填滿我們的課程並接觸到飛行員,至少可以肯定在明年或 2 年內。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question will be from Helane Becker from Cowen.

    下一個問題將來自 Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Just 2 questions. The first question is on the crew members who worked extra hours. Are you concerned that as the year goes on, especially at the end for the peak, there won't be enough crew hours for them to fly during the busy year-end season?

    就2個問題。第一個問題是關於加班的船員。您是否擔心隨著時間的推移,特別是在高峰期結束時,在繁忙的年終季節沒有足夠的機組人員飛行時間?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Helane, are you talking about pilots running up against their block hour limits for the year?

    是的。 Helane,你是說飛行員在今年的封鎖時間限制中跑來跑去嗎?

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I don't think that we're at risk of that at all. We've got our schedule adjusted for the capacity that we have. We'll see more pilots coming online in the second half of the year. And so I don't think we'll have an issue with that.

    是的。我認為我們根本沒有這種風險。我們已經根據我們的能力調整了日程安排。我們將在下半年看到更多的試點上線。所以我認為我們不會對此有任何問題。

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's very helpful. And then maybe, Tammy, one for you since you've been so quiet during this Q&A. On cash and liquidity, how are you thinking about bringing cash down to whatever your new minimum liquidity or cash level is going forward?

    好的。這很有幫助。然後也許,Tammy,一個給你的,因為你在這次問答中一直很安靜。關於現金和流動性,您如何考慮將現金降低到新的最低流動性或現金水平?

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Helane. Yes, our -- obviously, our liquidity is much higher than where it has been historically. And if we have learned anything through this pandemic recovery, it can be choppy. But we are making really great progress as evidenced in the commentary that we shared with you on our second quarter outlook. So we're making really great progress there. And when you combine that with our fuel hedge protection, our -- we're very encouraged with where we're headed there.

    是的。謝謝你的問題,海倫。是的,我們的——顯然,我們的流動性遠高於歷史水平。如果我們從這次大流行的複蘇中學到了任何東西,那可能是波濤洶湧的。但是,正如我們與您分享的關於第二季度展望的評論中所證明的那樣,我們正在取得巨大的進步。所以我們在那裡取得了很大的進展。當您將其與我們的燃料對沖保護相結合時,我們的 - 我們對我們要去的地方感到非常鼓舞。

  • So all that to say is I think we're really well positioned. So we want to get comfortably past the pandemic. Obviously, we want to have plenty of cash reserves to invest in the business, and we've shared all of that with you. But we do want to work down our cash levels over time. I've shared with you in the past that kind of -- right now, we have an agreement to be roughly, call it, $10 billion in cash. And now going forward, we believe we can continue to bring that down.

    所以我想說的是,我認為我們的定位非常好。因此,我們希望舒適地度過大流行病。顯然,我們希望有足夠的現金儲備來投資這項業務,我們已經與您分享了所有這些。但我們確實希望隨著時間的推移降低我們的現金水平。我過去曾與您分享過這種情況——現在,我們達成了一項協議,大致上說是 100 億美元的現金。現在展望未來,我們相信我們可以繼續降低這一點。

  • Now can we get back to historical? Should we get back to historical levels, which were probably in that, call it, $2 billion to $3 billion range? It may need to be higher than that. So we're going to work our way through that. Obviously, first order of business is to get back to solid profitability. So looking good there. And we want to invest in the business. And then obviously, we want to get back to shareholder returns. And we certainly have a desire to reinstate our dividend. And as we go here, as always, we'll consider share repurchases as those feel appropriate. And obviously, that will be based on, as always, free cash flow and just profitability level.

    現在我們可以回到歷史嗎?我們是否應該回到歷史水平,這可能是在 20 億至 30 億美元的範圍內?它可能需要比這更高。所以我們將努力解決這個問題。顯然,首要任務是恢復穩定的盈利能力。所以那裡看起來不錯。我們想投資這項業務。然後很明顯,我們想要回到股東回報。我們當然希望恢復我們的股息。和往常一樣,我們會在合適的時候考慮進行股票回購。顯然,這將一如既往地基於自由現金流和盈利水平。

  • So kind of a long-winded answer, Helane. But clearly, we want to get back on track to what we were delivering pre pandemic, and that obviously starts with adequate returns on capital, and that starts with profit. So I think we're making really good progress here, and we want to work our way back to those pre-pandemic levels.

    Helane,這是一個冗長的答案。但很明顯,我們希望回到大流行前我們所提供的正軌,這顯然要從充足的資本回報開始,而要從利潤開始。所以我認為我們在這裡取得了非常好的進展,我們希望努力回到大流行前的水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question will be from Savi Syth with Raymond James.

    下一個問題將來自 Savi Syth 和 Raymond James。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • Just a question on the stage length. You mentioned kind of 5 points of contraction here in this quarter. And I would assume that a lot of those other markets that you're adding on short haul as well that, that might continue to contract. Any color you can give us over the next few quarters on how that will trend? Or was there something kind of unique about the network restoration this quarter that had a bigger jump than you expect going forward?

    只是關於舞台長度的問題。您在本季度提到了 5 個點的收縮。而且我會假設你在短期內添加的許多其他市場可能會繼續收縮。在接下來的幾個季度中,您可以為我們提供任何關於趨勢的顏色?或者本季度的網絡恢復有什麼獨特之處,比你預期的要大嗎?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Yes, Savi. Good to talk to you. I'll give a start and then let Andrew, obviously, weigh in from a network perspective. But as we redesigned the network here to deal with the pandemic, and it was obvious that leisure demand that was going to come back faster than business, we orient ourselves in that direction. So yes, we flew longer. We had differences in places like intra-California. And now that business demand is coming back, you want to -- you want the network position to take advantage of that. So really, it's simply adding back more short haul to really build -- begin to build the network that is aligned around the business demand that we anticipate.

    是的,薩維。很高興和你談談。我會先開始,然後讓 Andrew 從網絡的角度進行權衡。但是,當我們在這裡重新設計網絡以應對大流行時,很明顯,休閒需求的恢復速度將快於商業需求,我們將自己定位在這個方向上。所以是的,我們飛得更長。我們在加利福尼亞州內等地方存在差異。現在業務需求又回來了,你想要 - 你希望網絡位置能夠利用這一點。所以真的,它只是增加了更多的短途時間來真正建立——開始建立與我們預期的業務需求相一致的網絡。

  • The good thing is, in addition to meeting the business demand, that additional depth in the network also helps us with our recoverability for our customers. So it helps us with network depth. And when we had the regular operations, it's extremely helpful. Andrew can talk to sort of thinking forward sequentially does that continue, but it is a big shift, a 5-point change quarter-over-quarter in the stage length is significant.

    好消息是,除了滿足業務需求外,網絡的額外深度還有助於我們為客戶提供可恢復性。所以它可以幫助我們提高網絡深度。當我們進行常規操作時,它非常有幫助。 Andrew 可以繼續向前思考,這是否會繼續下去,但這是一個很大的轉變,舞台長度的季度環比變化 5 點非常重要。

  • You didn't ask this, but it is a piece of our cost story here in the second quarter with costs up, our CASM-X projection up 14% to 18%. Sort of half of that is labor rates, airport, those kinds of things, or typical inflation. The other half is sort of inefficiency in the system plus the drag caused by this increase in -- this decrease in stage length from Q1 to Q2 is having a material impact as well. But Andrew, if you want to just add some color on just the -- this and where we are going forward in terms of stage.

    你沒有問這個,但這是我們第二季度成本故事的一部分,成本上升,我們的 CASM-X 預測上升 14% 至 18%。其中一半是勞動力價格,機場,那些東西,或者典型的通貨膨脹。另一半是系統效率低下加上這種增加引起的阻力——從第一季度到第二季度的階段長度減少也產生了重大影響。但是安德魯,如果你只想在這個和我們在舞台上前進的地方添加一些顏色。

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, certainly. The -- if you kind of break down our network in the short, medium and long hauls, what's really going on here is we're adding back lots of short haul and even more medium haul versus 2019 in order to kind of get restored network. It also happens to be kind of business-oriented as we see business demand recovering. And also, as Mike mentioned, helps the network, all things being equal, for recoverability. So really, it's a case of what's missing, and that's the long hauls that will probably be the last to be restored. Because they -- they'll though be attractive to customers and they do well financially, they don't add as much to kind of network resiliency or kind of business travel recovery. And so we kind of prioritize those (inaudible) and so you'll see stage length for a period of time be down as a result of this. And then towards the end of restoration, you should expect it to start to come back up a little bit as those long hauls get restored.

    是的,當然了。 - 如果您在短途、中途和長途中破壞我們的網絡,這裡真正發生的事情是,與 2019 年相比,我們正在增加大量短途甚至更多的中途,以便恢復網絡.當我們看到業務需求正在復蘇時,它也恰好是面向業務的。而且,正如邁克所提到的,在所有條件相同的情況下,有助於網絡的可恢復性。所以真的,這是一個缺少什麼的案例,而這可能是最後一個恢復的長途。因為它們——儘管它們對客戶具有吸引力並且在財務上表現良好,它們並沒有為網絡彈性或商務旅行恢復增加那麼多。所以我們會優先考慮那些(聽不清),所以你會看到一段時間的舞台長度因此而下降。然後在恢復快結束時,您應該期望它會隨著那些長途恢復而開始恢復一點點。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • That's helpful. Is there kind of a general on that just the stage-length level that you think you'll get back to when it's fully restored?

    這很有幫助。有沒有那種你認為完全恢復後會回到舞台長度水平的將軍?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • I think as you get -- we said we'd be largely restored by the end of next year and then we get towards the end of next year, success would be having a lot of those network metrics look very, very similar to just before the pandemic. And so that's where we want to be. As step 4, we now have these new things we added during the pandemic could overall enhance the attractiveness of the network, but the composition of short, medium and long and the kind of what's the point-to-point versus connecting, all that goes back to the network we love before the pandemic.

    我認為正如你所了解的——我們說我們將在明年年底之前基本恢復,然後我們將在明年年底之前,成功將有很多這些網絡指標看起來與之前非常非常相似流行病。這就是我們想要成為的地方。作為第 4 步,我們現在擁有在大流行期間添加的這些新東西,可以整體增強網絡的吸引力,但是短、中、長的組成以及點對點與連接的類型,所有這些回到大流行之前我們喜愛的網絡。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • And can I ask a quick follow-up on the pilot responses earlier? I was just curious, in the opening remarks, you mentioned setting up for more material growth in 2023. Just curious like how -- because it seems like, again, for Southwest, hiring is not the issue, it's clearly an attractive destination, but training class sizes and that bottleneck seems to be on the training side. So when you talk about kind of material growth next year, I mean, are you expecting your training class sizes to get bigger? Or like what's going to change that helped you get back to kind of growth next year, especially on the pilot side?

    我可以要求快速跟進試點響應嗎?我只是好奇,在開場白中,你提到了為 2023 年更多的物質增長做準備。只是好奇如何——因為看起來,對於西南航空來說,招聘不是問題,它顯然是一個有吸引力的目的地,但是培訓班的規模和瓶頸似乎在培訓方面。因此,當您談到明年的物質增長時,我的意思是,您是否期望您的培訓班規模變得更大?或者像什麼會幫助你在明年恢復增長,尤其是在試點方面?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Well, Savi, we've got a 26-day training facility out there. Currently, we have 23 of those bays filled. We're going to have 3 additional simulators here coming online later this year, and they'll be ready and fully operational for next year. So we have that capacity growth there. And then as I said, if we can get our instructor level up to our targeted levels, we'll have plenty of capacity in terms of our training to produce more pilots next year, even balancing out our recurrent training with the new hire training and the upgrade training.

    是的。好吧,薩維,我們有一個為期 26 天的培訓設施。目前,我們已經填滿了其中的 23 個。我們將在今年晚些時候上線 3 個額外的模擬器,它們將在明年準備就緒並全面投入使用。所以我們在那裡有能力增長。然後就像我說的,如果我們能夠將我們的教練水平提升到我們的目標水平,我們將有足夠的培訓能力來培養明年更多的飛行員,甚至可以平衡我們的複訓和新員工培訓和升級培訓。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question will be from Myles Walton from UBS.

    下一個問題將來自瑞銀的邁爾斯沃爾頓。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

  • I don't know who it's for, but I'll pose it anyway. You had really good growth in ATL, maybe just 10% below 1Q '19 levels, but the big 3 at 50% to 100% higher ATL growth in the first quarter this year versus 2019. And I guess my theory is that it's because of the policy change on change fees, but curious if you have a perspective on that relative performance?

    我不知道它是給誰的,但無論如何我都會擺出它的姿勢。 ATL 的增長非常好,可能僅比 19 年第一季度的水平低 10%,但今年第一季度與 2019 年相比,ATL 增長 50% 到 100% 的三大巨頭。我想我的理論是,這是因為變更費用的政策變化,但好奇您是否對這種相對錶現有看法?

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • No. Really nothing to do with any policy change fees at all because we have not really changed that.

    不。實際上與任何政策變更費用無關,因為我們並沒有真正改變這一點。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Sorry. I meant fare change fees changing.

    對不起。我的意思是改變票價。

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So no, I really -- when we've been sharing the demand environment is just obviously really strong. We had a surge in bookings here in March. So just really solid, robust demand. And we're seeing that, as we've already shared on both the leisure shop side as well as the corporate side, so I would attribute that just more to strong bookings.

    是的。所以不,我真的 - 當我們一直在分享需求環境時,顯然真的很強大。我們在三月份的預訂量激增。所以只是非常穩固、強勁的需求。我們看到了這一點,因為我們已經在休閒商店和企業方面分享了這一點,所以我將其更多地歸因於強勁的預訂。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay, okay. I was really getting at the delta between their outperformance and your in-line performance, but I'll take it up off-line. And then just a clarification on the 10,000 hiring versus the 8,000 previously. Can you just add color to that as well, if there's a difference in composition versus the January comments?

    好吧好吧。我真的很了解他們的出色表現和你的在線表現之間的差異,但我會離線進行。然後只是對 10,000 人的招聘與之前的 8,000 人進行澄清。如果構圖與 1 月份的評論有所不同,您是否也可以為其添加顏色?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • No, I think it's just -- if you look at our ability to train, so training capacity, it's come up just here a little bit. And so really, that's the difference. There's no other significant change. We want -- it's going to take into 2023 to restore our network deep into 2023 and to fly all of our aircraft. And so the sooner we can get there, the better. And so we've -- as I mentioned before, I'm just really proud of our hiring folks because we went from a dead start to hiring at these incredible sort of 1,500 a month kind of levels here in 6 months. And so really, it's just a boost in our ability to hire versus we have somehow changed our target hiring.

    不,我認為這只是——如果你看看我們的訓練能力,那麼訓練能力,就在這裡一點點出現。所以真的,這就是區別。沒有其他重大變化。我們希望 - 將在 2023 年恢復我們的網絡到 2023 年,並讓我們所有的飛機飛行。所以我們越早到達那裡越好。所以我們 - 正如我之前提到的,我真的為我們的招聘人員感到自豪,因為我們在 6 個月內從一開始就以每月 1,500 人的驚人水平招聘。所以真的,這只是我們招聘能力的提升,而我們以某種方式改變了我們的目標招聘。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳奧布萊恩。

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe just staying on the labor front, labor availability has been a major theme this quarter. It seems like you guys got ahead of the curve realigning your outlook for this year. So asking a longer-term one. When we get beyond 2023, I know there'll be some lumpiness with changes to this year, but beyond 2023, is your 5-year guidance for mid-single digit capacity growth and low single-digit unit costs still doable in your view based on what you can see for your own hiring pipeline and then what you're hearing from airports and your third-party vendors?

    也許只是停留在勞動力方面,勞動力可用性一直是本季度的一個主要主題。看來你們在重新調整今年的前景方面走在了前面。所以問一個長期的。當我們超過 2023 年時,我知道今年會有一些變化,但在 2023 年之後,您認為基於 2023 年的中個位數產能增長和低個位數單位成本的 5 年指導是否仍然可行您可以從自己的招聘渠道中看到什麼,然後從機場和第三方供應商那裡聽到什麼?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Yes, I would say that there's a lot of choppiness out there. So we've -- you've got unknowns in the workforce. Who's going to return? What's driving some of the folks who were out of the workforce? You have inflation concerns. You have this -- you got Fed policy. You have this overhang of a potential recession. So there's a lot of things that are going to drive the macro economy, which obviously drives the workforce, things like that. And we're not in control of that, and the projections are a little bit all over the map at this point.

    是的,我會說那裡有很多波動。所以我們 - 你在勞動力中有未知數。誰會回來?是什麼驅使一些人失業?你有通貨膨脹的擔憂。你有這個——你有美聯儲的政策。你有潛在衰退的懸念。所以有很多事情會推動宏觀經濟,這顯然會推動勞動力,諸如此類。而且我們無法控制這一點,此時投影有點遍布地圖。

  • I would just tell you that, while you do have to work harder, we have not had an issue hiring quality, I mean, really good folks. I spend a lot of time with our new hires. I'm proud to bring them into Southwest Airlines because they're exactly the kind of people that we want here.

    我只想告訴你,雖然你必須更加努力地工作,但我們在招聘質量方面沒有問題,我的意思是,非常好的人。我花了很多時間和我們的新員工在一起。我很自豪能將他們帶入西南航空公司,因為他們正是我們想要的那種人。

  • I think we're going to have to continue to work hard and adapt our hiring. We've all had to speed up the processes. We've had to use channels and techniques that we didn't before, like social media. We've had to do instant interview, instant offer, all that. But I think, beyond that, I don't see, as you look beyond '22, '23, that somehow the labor market becomes a constraint to what we want to do, what we want to grow.

    我認為我們將不得不繼續努力工作並調整我們的招聘方式。我們都必須加快進程。我們不得不使用以前沒有使用過的渠道和技術,比如社交媒體。我們不得不進行即時面試,即時報價,所有這些。但我認為,除此之外,當你看到 22 年和 23 年之後,我認為勞動力市場不會以某種方式成為我們想要做什麼、我們想要增長的限制。

  • Job #1 is use all of our aircraft, fully restore our network. And then beyond that, we've got aircraft coming. We have lots and lots of opportunities. You saw us open the 18 cities. We have a lot of opportunities in front of us, and we intend to take advantage of those.

    工作 #1 是使用我們所有的飛機,完全恢復我們的網絡。除此之外,我們還有飛機來了。我們有很多很多的機會。你看到我們開放了 18 個城市。我們面前有很多機會,我們打算利用這些機會。

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Bob. And the only thing I would add to that is just in terms of our 5-year targets, I agree. I do think we were out ahead. We were certainly expecting inflationary pressures this year, and that's certainly playing out here as we go. But I think we all have confidence in our plan, and so nothing that we're sharing with you today would change any of the 5-year targets that we shared with you back at Investor Day.

    是的,鮑勃。我唯一要補充的就是我們的 5 年目標,我同意。我確實認為我們已經領先了。我們當然預計今年會出現通脹壓力,而且隨著我們的發展,這肯定會在這裡上演。但我認為我們都對我們的計劃充滿信心,因此我們今天與您分享的任何內容都不會改變我們在投資者日與您分享的任何 5 年目標。

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. That's great. And then maybe just for my next one. You already walked through how you're moving around to MAX -7s and MAX -8s this year, just given the status of -7, I guess, just like what makes you comfortable with taking more of that larger variant closer in? Is it the demand uptick? And then what's your willingness to keep taking -8 closer in, just pending the -7 certification?

    好的。那太棒了。然後也許只是為了我的下一個。您已經了解了今年如何轉向 MAX -7s 和 MAX -8s,我猜只是考慮到 -7 的狀態,就像是什麼讓您更願意接受更多更大的變體?是需求回升嗎?那麼,在等待 -7 認證之前,您願意繼續接近 -8 嗎?

  • And then maybe just along with that, are there any moving pieces we should think about on CapEx here as you move to larger gauge? Or given that this is more of like a Boeing/FAA issue, do you keep your -7 price in? Or -- and maybe you can get some like remuneration just given the changes to your order book? Sorry, it's a bit of a long run

    然後也許就這樣,當您轉向更大的規格時,我們應該在這裡考慮資本支出的任何移動部分嗎?或者考慮到這更像是波音/美國聯邦航空局的問題,你會保留你的 -7 價格嗎?或者——也許你可以得到一些類似的報酬,只是因為你的訂單發生了變化?抱歉,有點長

  • .

    .

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • No, I think I followed what you're trying to ask there. But just in terms of the overall mix of aircraft. We really do have a lot of flexibility with the network. As we've been sharing a year today, we're hard at work to restore our network and that really does call for a mix of aircraft. So we feel really good about taking the MAX 8. We -- as we shared today, we firmed up 81 of those for this year. So we're just -- we'll just continue to monitor that as we go. And I don't really see any issues even into next year from a network perspective. So we'll continue to work with Boeing to firm up, whether or not they're MAX 7s or MAX 8s, but right now we're delighted with our order book and certainly very cost efficient. So no, very pleased and don't really -- we have a lot of optionality, and I think we can manage that really well here as we restore our network and resume growth.

    不,我想我遵循了你想在那裡問的問題。但就飛機的整體組合而言。我們確實在網絡上有很大的靈活性。正如我們今天分享的一年一樣,我們正在努力恢復我們的網絡,這確實需要混合飛機。所以我們對使用 MAX 8 感覺非常好。正如我們今天分享的那樣,我們今年確定了其中的 81 個。所以我們只是 - 我們將繼續監控這一點。從網絡的角度來看,即使到明年,我也沒有真正看到任何問題。因此,無論是 MAX 7 還是 MAX 8,我們都將繼續與波音公司合作,以堅定不移,但現在我們對我們的訂單很滿意,而且當然非常具有成本效益。所以不,非常高興並且不是真的 - 我們有很多選擇權,我認為我們可以在這裡很好地管理這一點,因為我們恢復了我們的網絡並恢復了增長。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Catherine, the way I just thought about it is just pretty simply is we have 2 big objectives with the fleet. We want to modernize the fleet and then we need more shelves to restore the network. And at the end of the day, I think we're comfortable anywhere between the 8s and the 7s in the 60% to 40% split one way or the other. So it might be a little choppy here as Boeing gets the MAX 7 certified. But as you plan that out over the next couple of years, we're going to be in that range, and we don't want to give up delivery slots in the near term because we -- because the modernization and the restoration are important to us.

    凱瑟琳,我剛才的想法很簡單,就是我們的艦隊有兩個大目標。我們希望對車隊進行現代化改造,然後我們需要更多的貨架來恢復網絡。歸根結底,我認為我們在 8 和 7 之間的任何地方都很舒服,在 60% 到 40% 的比例中以一種或另一種方式分開。因此,隨著波音獲得 MAX 7 認證,這裡可能會有些波動。但正如你在未來幾年內計劃的那樣,我們將在這個範圍內,我們不想在短期內放棄交貨時間,因為我們 - 因為現代化和修復很重要給我們。

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Totally makes sense.

    完全有道理。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Quick one here for Andrew. Can you just walk through some of the considerations what drove sort of your thinking in expanding the Hawaiian intra-island operation? And as a consequence of that, are you going to have to establish either a pilot and/or flight attendant domicile there?

    快給安德魯一個。您能否簡單介紹一下您在擴展夏威夷島內業務時的一些考慮因素?因此,您是否必須在那裡建立飛行員和/或空乘人員的住所?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • I'll start with the last part first. No, usually, we have much larger operations before we start to establish domiciles. Secondly, as I referred to in my remarks, we kind of restructured Hawaii, both the summer and the fall. But part of that was we're reallocating more capacity in the business market because business has a robust return.

    我先從最後一部分開始。不,通常,在我們開始建立住所之前,我們有更大的業務。其次,正如我在講話中提到的那樣,我們在夏季和秋季對夏威夷進行了某種重組。但其中一部分是我們正在重新分配商業市場的更多容量,因為商業有強勁的回報。

  • And then for kind of customer preference, we've done some changes to our Mainland Hawaii flying, which is mostly about how we take the connectivity we have because it's mostly point to point with some connections on top of that restructured where we'd like to have those connections to take place on the Mainland. And then for the ones that -- places where we want to have gateways mostly kind of origin, then we will have those connections happen to neighbor islands in Hawaii.

    然後為了客戶的偏好,我們對夏威夷大陸的航班做了一些改變,這主要是關於我們如何使用我們擁有的連接,因為它主要是點對點,在我們想要的重組之上還有一些連接讓這些聯繫在內地發生。然後對於那些 - 我們希望擁有網關的地方主要是一種起源,然後我們將這些連接發生在夏威夷的鄰近島嶼上。

  • So as a consequence of that, we have less flying from the Mainland to Hawaii and then more flying between the islands. It also has a great benefit of having some time of day appeal because our previous frequencies did not allow for kind of reliable day trips for business travelers in the islands. If you think about your business (inaudible) with the largest population, you're going to Maui. There is very nice hotels in Maui, but there's not a business hotel, so you have to get back that night.

    因此,我們從大陸到夏威夷的航班減少了,然後在島嶼之間的航班增加了。它還有一個很大的好處,那就是在一天中的某個時間吸引人,因為我們以前的頻率不允許為島上的商務旅客提供可靠的一日遊。如果您考慮人口最多的企業(聽不清),那麼您將前往毛伊島。毛伊島有很好的酒店,但是沒有商務酒店,所以你必須當晚回來。

  • And so the service pattern has to allow for the early morning departures and the evening returns. And so the increased frequency count also appeals to them. So it achieves multiple objectives, and it's part of that broader restructuring of a reduction of about 20% in Mainland-Hawaii flying as part of that.

    因此,服務模式必須考慮到清晨出發和晚上返回。因此,增加的頻率計數也吸引了他們。因此,它實現了多個目標,並且是更廣泛的重組的一部分,將大陸-夏威夷航班減少約 20% 作為其中的一部分。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's super helpful. And then just a quick one to just Bob or Mike on the 10,000 up from the 8,000. Bob, as I recall, a few months back, you sort of hinted that it's not just 8,000 this year. It feels like it's probably going to be 8,000 for several years. So the way we think about it, is it 10,000 this year and you're getting ahead of next year, and therefore next year you may be looking to only hire 6,000 on a net basis?

    好的。這非常有幫助。然後很快就將 Bob 或 Mike 從 8,000 增加到 10,000。鮑勃,我記得幾個月前,你有點暗示今年不僅僅是 8,000。感覺幾年後可能會達到8,000。所以我們考慮的方式是,今年是 10,000 人,而您正在領先於明年,因此明年您可能只希望在淨額基礎上僱用 6,000 人?

  • And what in round numbers, how many pilots this year and next year? I know you said that you're going to replace 640 pilots, who had early retired. But I believe your natural attrition is probably several hundred pilots per year. So what are we looking at for this year in pilots and maybe even '23?

    總體而言,今年和明年有多少飛行員?我知道你說過你要替換 640 名提前退休的飛行員。但我相信你的自然減員可能是每年幾百名飛行員。那麼我們今年在飛行員甚至 23 年會看到什麼?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • You bet, and there's a lot in that question, but I think the -- I mean there are really 2 things happening in hiring. Number one is to catch us up to where we need to be to our current fleet and network restoration. As I mentioned before, we're still below -- just in total, we're below our 2019 headcount still. And we -- and as I also mentioned, we have a large number of the new -- our new employees, so they count in that number that they're either still in training or they are gaining proficiency. So in my mind, it's 6 months, 9 months a year before they're fully proficient as a longer-term employee. So obviously, we've got to catch up.

    你打賭,這個問題有很多,但我認為 - 我的意思是招聘過程中確實發生了兩件事。第一是讓我們趕上我們當前車隊和網絡恢復所需的位置。正如我之前提到的,我們仍然低於 - 總的來說,我們仍然低於 2019 年的員工人數。而且我們——正如我也提到的,我們有大量的新員工——我們的新員工,所以他們把這個數字計算在內,他們要么仍在接受培訓,要么正在獲得熟練程度。因此,在我看來,他們每年需要 6 個月、9 個月才能完全熟練地成為一名長期員工。所以很明顯,我們必須趕上。

  • Number two, we want to get a bit ahead here because we've got a lot -- we've got 114 aircraft coming in this year. We have 90. And then net, obviously, some retirements next year is going to take the 125 to restore the network. So it's taking a lot to get back to where we've got our network restored. So there's a bit of that 10,000. There's part of that 10,000 that's catching up. And I think there's a part of that 10,000 that's trying to get a bit ahead.

    第二,我們想在這裡領先一點,因為我們有很多——今年我們有 114 架飛機。我們有 90 個。然後是網絡,顯然,明年的一些退休人員將使用 125 來恢復網絡。所以要回到我們恢復網絡的地方需要很多時間。所以有一點,10,000。這 10,000 人中有一部分正在迎頭趕上。而且我認為這 10,000 人中的一部分人正試圖領先一點。

  • At the end of the day, the goal #1 is to fly all of our aircraft, restore our network, have a reliable operation. And then as we've talked about, by the end of 2023, get back to our historic operational reliability and get back to our historic productivity, which we've defined as regained 2018 productivity and efficiency. How that translates into an exact number of hiring for 2023? I can't really tell you just because it's dependent on attrition and a whole number of things. My guess just because of the aircraft number or the deliveries, net retirements are falling from 2022 to 2023.

    歸根結底,第一目標是駕駛我們所有的飛機,恢復我們的網絡,實現可靠運行。然後正如我們所談到的,到 2023 年底,恢復我們歷史上的運營可靠性並恢復我們歷史上的生產力,我們將其定義為恢復 2018 年的生產力和效率。這如何轉化為 2023 年的確切招聘人數?我不能真的告訴你,因為它取決於損耗和很多事情。我的猜測只是因為飛機數量或交付量,從 2022 年到 2023 年,淨退役率正在下降。

  • It may be reasonable to expect that 2023 hiring overall is a bit lower. But I think we just have to see -- again, I come back to the #1 goal is use all of our assets, fly all of our aircraft and return by the end of 2023 to our historic efficiency and reliability.

    可以合理地預期 2023 年的整體招聘會略低。但我認為我們只需要看看——再次,我回到第一個目標是使用我們所有的資產,駕駛我們所有的飛機,並在 2023 年底之前恢復到我們歷史上的效率和可靠性。

  • On the pilot front, Mike can give you a lot more exact number than I can. What I've got in my head is the pilot hiring in 2022 here is roughly 1,200 or so. Mike, so yes, if you don't mind just a little more detail on pilot.

    在飛行員方面,邁克可以給你比我更準確的數字。我腦子裡想的是 2022 年招聘的飛行員大約有 1,200 人左右。邁克,是的,如果你不介意飛行員的更多細節。

  • Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

    Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

  • Yes. Just a couple of things. In terms of the hiring, just the way I think about that, I'd always rather go faster than slower. When we get behind on staffing, it just takes a longer time to catch up with that. And then if we can have staffing with some cushion, it gives us a better cost profile with less premium pay. It gives us a better operational recovery profile.

    是的。只是幾件事。在招聘方面,就我的想法而言,我總是寧願走得快也不願放慢。當我們在人員配備方面落後時,就需要更長的時間才能趕上。然後,如果我們可以為員工配備一些緩衝,它可以讓我們以更少的溢價獲得更好的成本配置。它為我們提供了更好的運營恢復概況。

  • And if you find yourself in an overstaffed situation, you can just dial back the hiring and you can solve that pretty quickly. So just as a frame of reference, the faster that we can hire and get up the speed for us, the better. In terms of the pilot hiring, Bob is right. We've got somewhere just north of 1,000 pilots here this year. And then if we can get up to full capacity, we can produce probably close to 2,300 pilots next year if we needed to.

    而且,如果您發現自己人手過多,您只需撥回招聘,您就可以很快解決這個問題。因此,作為一個參考框架,我們可以越快招聘和加快速度越好。在飛行員招聘方面,鮑勃是對的。今年我們這裡的飛行員人數不到 1,000 名。然後,如果我們能夠達到滿負荷生產,如果需要的話,明年我們可以生產近 2,300 名飛行員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one more question, and that question will come from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

    女士們先生們,我們還有時間再提一個問題,這個問題將來自 Sheila Kahyaoglu 和 Jefferies。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • It's Scott on for Sheila. Just on that managed corporate down 30% in April, is there any way to maybe parse out how much of that is restoration of 2019 managed corporate revenue? And how much is coming from taking share with these new revenue initiatives you put in place?

    希拉是斯科特。就在 4 月份那家託管公司下跌 30% 的情況下,有沒有辦法可以分析出其中有多少是 2019 年託管公司收入的恢復?與您實施的這些新收入計劃分享多少收益?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Andrew, you want to take a shot at that one?

    安德魯,你想試一試嗎?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Sure, which I'm going to disappoint you is we're -- the -- that's part of our overall revenue shifts, which we gave a benefit of $1 billion to $1.5 billion at Investor Day, and we're not decomposing those individually. You can certainly take a look in the ARC data and see our increasing composition of ARC and what that means for us getting more and more business travel. But that restoration is a combination of what we had before and new stuff.

    當然,我會讓你失望的是,我們是——那——這是我們整體收入轉變的一部分,我們在投資者日帶來了 10 億到 15 億美元的收益,我們不會單獨分解這些.您當然可以查看 ARC 數據,了解我們不斷增加的 ARC 組成,以及這對我們獲得越來越多的商務旅行意味著什麼。但這種恢復是我們以前擁有的東西和新東西的結合。

  • The new stuff is really mostly share of wallet, if you will, for individual entities. So the people with whom -- while we're doing business through GDS, we were also doing business through our Direct Connect or Southwest Business, SWABIZ application before. So it's really about giving them multiple ways to purchase from us, whatever distribution channel they prefer. And we're seeing we're getting more of those accounts business as we've given them this option.

    如果你願意的話,新東西實際上主要是個人實體的錢包份額。因此,在我們通過 GDS 開展業務的同時,我們也通過 Direct Connect 或 Southwest Business, SWABIZ 應用程序開展業務。因此,這實際上是為他們提供多種從我們這裡購買的方式,無論他們喜歡什麼分銷渠道。而且我們看到我們正在獲得更多這些帳戶業務,因為我們已經為他們提供了這個選項。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Yes, I think the thing that's terrific is Investor Day in December we laid out our revenue initiative plan to add $1 billion to $1.5 billion in EBIT in 2023 and half of that here in 2022. And so -- and it's all things that attract business. So as Andrew said, GDS, it's new revenue management tools. It's the new fare product, which is Wanna Get Away Plus. It launches here shortly. It's our enhancements to our Rapid Rewards program and our agreement with Chase. And all of those things are on track, the ones that have been delivered are performing. And so I think the main takeaway is that we laid out a really good plan, and we're on track to meet those goals.

    是的,我認為非常棒的事情是 12 月的投資者日,我們制定了收入計劃,計劃在 2023 年增加 10 億至 15 億美元的息稅前利潤,並在 2022 年增加一半。所以——這一切都是吸引業務的因素.正如安德魯所說,GDS,它是新的收入管理工具。這是新的票價產品,即 Wanna Get Away Plus。它很快就會在這裡啟動。這是我們對快速獎勵計劃的改進以及我們與 Chase 的協議。所有這些事情都在軌道上,已經交付的事情正在執行。所以我認為主要的收穫是我們制定了一個非常好的計劃,我們正在實現這些目標。

  • Ryan Martinez - VP of IR

    Ryan Martinez - VP of IR

  • Okay. Well, that wraps up the analyst portion of our call. I appreciate everyone listening in. Thank you for the questions, and have a great day.

    好的。好吧,這結束了我們電話的分析師部分。感謝大家的聆聽。感謝您的提問,祝您有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with our media portion of today's call. I'd like to first introduce Ms. Linda Rutherford, Executive Vice President, People and Communications.

    謝謝你。女士們,先生們,我們現在開始今天電話會議的媒體部分。我想首先介紹一下人事與傳播部執行副總裁琳達·盧瑟福女士。

  • Linda Burke Rutherford - EVP of People & Communications

    Linda Burke Rutherford - EVP of People & Communications

  • Well, thank you very much, Chad, and welcome to our media members. I think we can go ahead and get started if you would give them the instructions on how to queue up for questions.

    嗯,非常感謝你,乍得,歡迎來到我們的媒體成員。我想我們可以繼續開始,如果你能給他們關於如何排隊提問的說明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Mary Schlangenstein with Bloomberg News.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自彭博新聞的 Mary Schlangenstein。

  • Mary Schlangenstein

    Mary Schlangenstein

  • I just had a couple of quick questions. Bob, Southwest has said previously that they plan to hire 25,000 people over 3 years. So the 2,000 that you added today to bring you to 10,000 for this year, do you think that just brings the 25,000 to 27,000? Or do you think you still over those 3 years would end up adding just the 25,000?

    我只是有幾個簡單的問題。 Bob, Southwest 此前曾表示,他們計劃在 3 年內僱傭 25,000 人。因此,您今天添加的 2,000 使您今年達到 10,000,您認為這只是將 25,000 帶到 27,000 嗎?還是您認為您在這 3 年中仍然會最終只增加 25,000 個?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Well, Mary, I'll be completely honest with you, which was that's an old -- the 25,000 is an old number. And as we were planning, it was a very round number. Just trying to think through what it takes to get our staffing fully back in place.

    是的。好吧,瑪麗,我會完全誠實地告訴你,這是一個古老的數字——25,000 是一個古老的數字。正如我們計劃的那樣,這是一個非常整數。只是想通過如何讓我們的人員完全恢復到位。

  • The other thing to that, to me, that's a gross number, which is we always -- we have attrition in there, too. So I wouldn't be -- I don't think I would be quite so granular. I do think the -- if you look at the changes this year, so the 8 becoming 10, I feel comfortable with that because a lot of that was dependent at the time that we set the goal of 8.

    另一件事,對我來說,這是一個總數,我們總是這樣——我們也有減員。所以我不會——我認為我不會那麼細化。我確實認為 - 如果你看看今年的變化,所以 8 變成了 10,我對此感到很舒服,因為這在很大程度上取決於我們設定 8 的目標時。

  • We weren't quite sure what we could ramp the hiring machine, too. Because we -- again, I know I've said this 3 times, but we went from no hiring machine to trying to hire thousands. And it was -- we were just unclear in terms of how quickly we could rebuild all those processes. And we've done a -- our folks have done a terrific job, and we're actually had a pace. And so that's really what's raised the 8 to the 10 in this case.

    我們也不太確定我們可以提升招聘機器的性能。因為我們——再一次,我知道我已經說過 3 次了,但是我們從沒有招聘機器到試圖僱傭數千人。它是 - 我們只是不清楚我們可以多快重建所有這些流程。我們已經完成了——我們的人已經完成了一項了不起的工作,而且我們實際上有一個節奏。這就是在這種情況下將 8 提高到 10 的真正原因。

  • Mary Schlangenstein

    Mary Schlangenstein

  • Okay. And although you talked about how many pilots you hope to hire this year, a couple of months ago, you actually trimmed your plan for hiring first officers because of the lack of simulator instructor or flight instructors. Has that number changed? Like have you had to carve out a few more just despite the goal that you have of hiring over 1,000, if you had to bring that down any?

    好的。儘管您談到今年希望僱用多少飛行員,但幾個月前,您實際上削減了僱用副駕駛的計劃,因為缺乏模擬器教練或飛行教練。這個數字變了嗎?就像你是否不得不再創造一些,儘管你有招聘超過 1,000 人的目標,如果你不得不把它降下來?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • I would tell you that it's moved around. Our constraints generally have moved around over time, which group, in particular, is the real constraint. The constraint right now is it's flight instructors. We've made tremendous progress on our flight instructors, and we're getting very close, but that's really what is the narrows constraint versus literally pilots. We have a lot of pilots in the pipeline, and we could go faster if we had our full complement of flight instructors.

    我會告訴你它已經移動了。我們的約束通常會隨著時間的推移而變化,特別是哪個組是真正的約束。現在的限制是它的飛行教官。我們在飛行教官方面取得了巨大進步,而且我們已經非常接近了,但這確實是狹窄限制與真正的飛行員相比。我們有很多飛行員正在籌備中,如果我們有完整的飛行教官,我們可以走得更快。

  • Now we recently have really invested in speeding up that process. So probably way much -- way more than you want to know, but we have retention bonusing. We have referral bonusing with our current employees. We have begun to use or thinking about how to use pilots, who have recently retired to be flight instructors. So we really widened out our thinking in terms of how to grow that because every airline is looking for flight instructors right now. But no, that's our primary constraint right now is flight instructors.

    現在,我們最近確實在加快這一進程方面進行了投資。所以可能比你想知道的要多得多,但我們有保留獎金。我們與現有員工有推薦獎金。我們已經開始使用或思考如何使用飛行員,他們最近退休成為飛行教員。因此,我們在如何發展這一方面確實拓寬了思路,因為現在每家航空公司都在尋找飛行教官。但是不,這是我們現在的主要限制是飛行教官。

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. And Mary, Mary, we do -- our target this year is to hire 1,200 pilots. And I think we have a very reasonable path to hit that target. Just realize, though, that some of those pilots are going to be coming on here in late October, November, December. They'll still be training, and they won't be out on the frontline flying at that point in time.

    是的。瑪麗,瑪麗,我們願意——我們今年的目標是僱傭 1,200 名飛行員。我認為我們有一條非常合理的途徑來實現這個目標。不過,請注意,其中一些飛行員將在 10 月下旬、11 月和 12 月來到這裡。他們仍在訓練中,那時他們不會在前線飛行。

  • Mary Schlangenstein

    Mary Schlangenstein

  • Right. Okay. And how many flight instructors do you need to add to be fully staffed?

    對。好的。您需要增加多少飛行教官才能配備齊全?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • We're looking somewhere between, to hit our plan, 35 to 38. To exceed our plan, a little north of that, say, 50 to 60.

    我們正在尋找介於 35 到 38 之間的某個地方,以達到我們的計劃。要超出我們的計劃,比我們的計劃稍微靠北一點,比如 50 到 60。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is from Alison Sider with Wall Street Journal.

    下一個問題來自華爾街日報的艾莉森·賽德。

  • Alison Sider

    Alison Sider

  • I guess the last question, just curious if you're seeing any issues with fuel supply at any of the airports where you operate. I know it was a little bit of an issue some places last summer, and it seems like the stocks are kind of low in some parts of the country now. I'm just curious if that's something you're anticipating or what you're doing to get ahead of it?

    我猜是最後一個問題,只是好奇您是否在您運營的任何機場發現任何燃料供應問題。我知道去年夏天有些地方有點問題,現在該國某些地區的庫存似乎有點低。我只是好奇這是你期待的事情還是你正在做些什麼來領先它?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Alison -- and Tammy, please chime in. I would tell you that those are really spot issues, and we're really not seeing those now. The issue now, of course, is price. And price differentials across the country and then not just the rise in underlying crude prices, but a titanic rise in the crack spread, which is driving up costs as well.

    艾莉森——還有塔米,請插話。我會告訴你,這些確實是現場問題,我們現在真的沒有看到這些問題。當然,現在的問題是價格。全國范圍內的價格差異,不僅是基礎原油價格的上漲,還有裂解價差的大幅上漲,這也推高了成本。

  • Luckily, we're well hedged. And our hedge portfolio this year is going to add about $1 billion in value in terms of helping manage our fuel costs. But no, straight up with your question, we aren't experiencing significant issues with fuel supply at this point. Tammy, if you want to add anything.

    幸運的是,我們已經很好地對沖了。在幫助管理我們的燃料成本方面,我們今年的對沖投資組合將增加約 10 億美元的價值。但是,不,直接回答您的問題,我們目前在燃料供應方面沒有遇到重大問題。塔米,如果你想添加任何東西。

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • No. You covered it, Bob. Yes, really no physical issue, so much better position than we were. And yes, and even relative to just the increase in prices, as Bob already said, we've got a wonderful fuel hedge in place. So no, I think we're in a much better position there.

    不,鮑勃,你報導了。是的,真的沒有身體問題,比我們的位置好多了。是的,甚至相對於價格的上漲,正如鮑勃已經說過的那樣,我們已經有了一個很好的燃料對沖。所以不,我認為我們在那里處於更好的位置。

  • Alison Sider

    Alison Sider

  • Okay. And I guess one other thing I thought was interesting you mentioned about just people being sort of new and it's taking time for people to kind of get ramped up and to be really proficient in their jobs. Where are you seeing that kind of manifest? Is that kind of slowing things down on the maintenance front? Or where is that causing issues?

    好的。我想我認為你提到的另一件事很有趣,即人們只是有點新,人們需要時間來提高水平並真正精通他們的工作。你在哪裡看到這樣的表現?這會在維護方面放慢速度嗎?或者這在哪裡引起問題?

  • Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

    Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

  • Alison, mostly that presents itself on the ground and in the airports. So think about your new ramp agent and you're out in the different conditions that you'll operate in during the course of the year, just navigating through all the transfer bags, navigating just to the speed in the tempo of the airport operation out there, all the equipment move. It just takes several months for you to kind of get up to speed and get comfortable in that environment.

    艾莉森,主要是在地面和機場出現。因此,想想您的新停機坪代理,您將在一年中的不同條件下運行,只需瀏覽所有的轉運包,按照機場運行的速度導航在那裡,所有的設備都移動了。您只需要幾個月的時間就可以適應這種環境並適應這種環境。

  • And we want to make sure that we focus them with a lot of supervision and a lot of oversight because it's a -- safety is our highest priority out there. We want to make sure that with the new hires out there we've got all of our I's dotted and the T's crossed as we're executing through our procedures.

    我們希望確保我們對他們進行大量監督和大量監督,因為這是——安全是我們的首要任務。我們希望確保在新員工的情況下,我們在執行我們的程序時,我們的所有 I 都被點綴了,T 也被劃掉了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question will be from David Koenig from the Associated Press.

    下一個問題將來自美聯社的 David Koenig。

  • David Koenig

    David Koenig

  • Bob, your fares in the first quarter were up quite a bit from a year ago, although they're only up 5% from 2019, which I suspect is less than CPI. But any concern that consumers, who are seeing inflation in everything they buy, because travel is a discretionary choice, do you have any concern that general inflation and higher fares are going to cut into the strong demand you're seeing?

    Bob,您第一季度的票價比一年前上漲了很多,儘管它們比 2019 年僅上漲了 5%,我懷疑這低於 CPI。但是,由於旅行是一種可自由選擇的選擇,消費者在購買的所有商品中都看到了通貨膨脹,您是否擔心一般通貨膨脹和更高的票價會削弱您所看到的強勁需求?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Yes, Dave, thanks for the question. There's a lot in there. And again, I just said, a base, I just want to reiterate that we've not been raising fares. So we did have one modest fare increase in the first quarter. I think it was $5. What's really happening is that we've got a normal fare structure. And as demand is really strong, the lower-end fares close out faster and you move along the fare structure, but we've not modified our fare structure.

    是的,戴夫,謝謝你的提問。裡面有很多。再說一次,我剛剛說了一個基數,我只想重申我們並沒有提高票價。因此,我們在第一季度確實有適度的票價上漲。我認為是 5 美元。真正發生的是我們有一個正常的票價結構。而且由於需求非常強勁,低端票價關閉得更快,您會沿著票價結構移動,但我們沒有修改我們的票價結構。

  • The other thing that I would add is as we -- especially as we add our Wanna Get Away Plus product and as we've managed what we call fare gaps between the columns, what you're seeing is that, in a lot of cases, and Andrew could talk to this in most cases, the prices or the differentials between Wanna Get Away and Anytime and Business Select have come down substantially. So our fares on the upper end are actually -- and that fare gap is actually much lower than it has been historically. So in that case, those fares are actually more affordable.

    我要補充的另一件事是,尤其是當我們添加 Wanna Get Away Plus 產品並且我們已經管理了我們所說的列之間的票價差距時,您所看到的是,在很多情況下,並且在大多數情況下,Andrew 可以談到這一點,Wanna Get Away 與 Anytime 和 Business Select 之間的價格或差異已大幅下降。所以我們在高端的票價實際上是——而且票價差距實際上比歷史上要低得多。因此,在這種情況下,這些票價實際上更實惠。

  • But generally, as demand is strong, and it's extremely strong. Again, our second quarter operating revenues per our forecast could be an all-time record, which is just incredible after 2 years of the pandemic. But as you see that kind of strength, seats are going to sell out faster and customers are going to see higher fares. So far, we don't see any dampening of demand. Some of that may be because there's a lot of discretionary household savings still in the system. But so far, we've seen no indicator that demand has been dampened by this increase in fares. Andrew, you want to add anything?

    但總的來說,由於需求強勁,而且非常強勁。同樣,根據我們的預測,我們第二季度的營業收入可能會創歷史新高,這在大流行兩年後簡直令人難以置信。但是,當您看到這種實力時,座位將更快售罄,客戶將看到更高的票價。到目前為止,我們沒有看到任何需求下降。其中一些可能是因為系統中仍有大量可自由支配的家庭儲蓄。但到目前為止,我們沒有看到任何跡象表明票價上漲會抑制需求。安德魯,你想補充什麼嗎?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • The one thing I'd add is, overall, our capacity is down versus 2019 for the summer that you mentioned, Dave, as well as the industry as a collective. So we're actually not able to satisfy all the travel demand kind of as is given the capacities or like in 2019. So there will be people, who are not buying that would have bought in 2019. But as we restore more capacity, we expect that demand to be there.

    我要補充的一件事是,總體而言,與你提到的 2019 年夏天相比,我們的產能有所下降,戴夫,以及整個行業。因此,我們實際上無法滿足 2019 年給定容量或類似容量的所有旅行需求。所以會有人不購買,他們會在 2019 年購買。但隨著我們恢復更多容量,我們預計會有這種需求。

  • David Koenig

    David Koenig

  • Okay. I get that the rise -- the higher average could be because the lower buckets are selling out faster and everybody's capacity is still recovering, but I just wondered if there was any concern going forward about the inflation nipping this in the bud.

    好的。我知道上漲——較高的平均水平可能是因為較低的桶賣得更快,而且每個人的產能仍在恢復,但我只是想知道未來是否有任何關於通脹將其扼殺在萌芽狀態的擔憂。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is from Kyle Arnold from Dallas Morning News.

    下一個問題來自達拉斯晨報的凱爾·阿諾德。

  • Kyle Arnold

    Kyle Arnold

  • Have you done -- made any more work? Or is there anything specific you've done to solve some of the regular operations problems? I know there's report about a meeting in Florida, talk with the FAA about some of the issues happening in there. What are you doing to make sure that some of that, either TAC or the staffing or the compounding problems, don't creep up again this summer?

    你有沒有做更多的工作?或者您有什麼具體措施來解決一些常規操作問題?我知道有報導說在佛羅里達舉行了一次會議,與 FAA 討論那裡發生的一些問題。你正在做些什麼來確保其中一些,無論是 TAC 還是人員配備或複合問題,今年夏天不會再次出現?

  • Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

    Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

  • Yes. Let me start out there for you, Kyle. So we've done a couple of just basic things. As you know, we've reduced our originally published schedules through Labor Day. That absolutely is going to give us more cushion and staffing cushion in the operation. We've been talking all morning long about our aggressive hiring plans. So adding people there. And then Andrew talked a little bit about us reoptimizing our aircraft flow and our design toward the shorter-haul trips, and that's going to help our crew and our operational recovery. So we feel that those are the 3 big pieces that we're in a much better condition in place that we've been in as we move forward.

    是的。讓我從你那裡開始,凱爾。所以我們已經做了一些基本的事情。如您所知,我們在勞動節期間減少了最初發布的時間表。這絕對會給我們在運營中提供更多的緩沖和人員配備緩衝。我們整個上午都在談論我們積極的招聘計劃。所以在那裡增加人。然後安德魯談到了我們重新優化我們的飛機流量和我們針對短途旅行的設計,這將有助於我們的機組人員和我們的運營恢復。因此,我們認為這些是我們在前進的過程中處於更好的狀態的 3 大部分。

  • We do have -- as you mentioned, we do have specific -- and when I say we, I mean, the airline industry, has specific impacts with respect to Florida air traffic control and travel through there. And it's a combination of problems down there. There's more commercial activity. There's more GA activity. There are more space shuttle launch. The weather patterns that go through there are complicating all of that additional traffic.

    我們確實有——正如你提到的,我們確實有具體的——當我說我們,我的意思是,航空業對佛羅里達州的空中交通管制和通過那裡的旅行有具體的影響。這是一系列問題的組合。有更多的商業活動。還有更多的 GA 活動。還有更多的航天飛機發射。經過那裡的天氣模式使所有額外的交通變得複雜。

  • And then I think that just like everyone else going through with staffing, the FAA is going through staffing challenges as well. So there is a focus, an industry focus on that. And in May, the FAA and some of the impacted carriers are going to talk about solutions to that specific airspace. So I think when you package all those things together, we're in a much better place going into this summer than we were last summer.

    然後我認為,就像其他所有人都在經歷人員配備一樣,FAA 也在經歷人員配備方面的挑戰。所以有一個焦點,一個行業的焦點。 5 月,美國聯邦航空局和一些受影響的航空公司將討論針對特定空域的解決方案。所以我認為當你把所有這些東西打包在一起時,今年夏天我們的處境比去年夏天要好得多。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • And Kyle, I just wanted to add -- I wanted to just offer some praise for the FAA here because they're taking this head on. We got this meeting in May to develop solutions. They're working with carriers, are working directly with us and to think about developing solutions because, clearly, we have more issues this year, more weather. Mike mentioned you got more SpaceX and other launches.

    還有凱爾,我只是想補充一下——我想在這裡對美國聯邦航空局表示一些讚揚,因為他們正在採取行動。我們在五月份召開了這次會議,以製定解決方案。他們正在與運營商合作,直接與我們合作並考慮開發解決方案,因為很明顯,我們今年有更多的問題,更多的天氣。邁克提到你有更多的 SpaceX 和其他發射。

  • The flight activity is back above -- scheduled flight activity back above 2019 levels. But the other thing that's obvious is we put -- as they put in programs, flow control, those kinds of things that are designed to manage the issue. They're just not working as effectively as they have historically. So I'm just really pleased that the FAA is hitting that one head on and they're working with carriers and working with us directly to find solutions that work for everybody.

    飛行活動回到了上面——預定的飛行活動回到了 2019 年的水平之上。但另一件顯而易見的事情是我們投入了——正如他們投入程序、流程控制,以及旨在管理問題的那些東西。他們只是沒有像歷史上那樣有效地工作。所以我真的很高興美國聯邦航空局正在迎頭趕上,他們正在與運營商合作,並直接與我們合作尋找適合所有人的解決方案。

  • Mike mentioned one other thing that I think is really important, which is while we both -- there's been a lot of public focus on, scheduled flight activity is above 2019. I think it's really important to point out that general aviation, or GA aircraft activity is far above 2019. That takes a piece of the -- obviously, the limited air space out. So I think that understanding that and solving that is a significant part of the solution as well.

    邁克提到了我認為非常重要的另一件事,那就是當我們倆都關注時,定期航班活動在 2019 年以上。我認為指出通用航空或通用航空飛機非常重要活動遠高於 2019 年。這顯然佔用了有限的空域。所以我認為理解和解決這個問題也是解決方案的重要組成部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is from Dawn Gilbertson from USA Today.

    下一個問題來自《今日美國》的 Dawn Gilbertson。

  • Dawn Gilbertson

    Dawn Gilbertson

  • Speaking of higher ticket prices, you now offer uplift as an option. I just was noticing it really just popped up right when I was searching for a flight. Can you give any color to what percentage of bookings -- new bookings since you've added that people are buying now and paying later? I know with Southwest Vacations, it was a notable percentage.

    說到更高的票價,您現在可以選擇提升票價。我只是注意到它真的是在我搜索航班時突然出現的。您能否為預訂的百分比提供任何顏色 - 自從您添加人們現在購買並稍後付款後的新預訂?我知道西南假期,這是一個顯著的百分比。

  • And secondly, speaking of Southwest Vacations, are you guys taking that in-house?

    其次,說到西南假期,你們是在內部進行的嗎?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Andrew, I'm going to defer to you.

    安德魯,我會聽從你的。

  • Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Andrew M. Watterson - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Okay. Yes. We do offer uplift. It's a very small percentage of sales that I'm not going to disclose, but it's also part of the overall progress we've made in payment forms, whether it's PayPal, Uplift, Apple Pay. We've just been on a program in the last 3 years, we're giving more and more options for payment method for consumers under the idea that more choice is better. And for the vacations and higher ticket values, yes, that order value is rather that does offer a benefit for consumers that want it.

    好的。是的。我們確實提供提升。我不會透露銷售額的一小部分,但它也是我們在支付方式方面取得的整體進展的一部分,無論是 PayPal、Uplift 還是 Apple Pay。在過去的 3 年裡,我們剛剛參與了一個項目,我們正在為消費者提供越來越多的支付方式選擇,因為選擇越多越好。對於假期和更高的票價,是的,訂單價值確實為想要它的消費者提供了好處。

  • And then secondly, on Southwest Vacations, we are, as we kind of alluded to an Investor Day, on an approach to kind of restructure, redefine how we handle Southwest Vacations. We're setting up a team and working with industry partners to figure out how we take advantage of the fact that our network is really over-indexed, a lot of big leisure destinations where packages are sold, and yet we don't really distribute through the traditional package channels. And so there's an opportunity there for us to do more business and packages consumers.

    其次,在西南假期,正如我們提到的投資者日,我們正在採取一種重組方法,重新定義我們處理西南假期的方式。我們正在建立一個團隊並與行業合作夥伴合作,以弄清楚我們如何利用我們的網絡確實被過度索引的事實,很多大型休閒目的地都在出售包裹,但我們並沒有真正分發通過傳統的套餐渠道。因此,我們有機會開展更多業務並包裝消費者。

  • And so that's something that we're looking at as a future revenue initiative. As we kind of look over the horizon in order to kind of meet the investor promises we've made about RASM performance exceeding CASM, we don't want to leave ourselves with a vagary of kind of the market, so to speak. So we need a pipeline of revenue initiatives that allow us to have kind of ex market, if you will, benefits that can make sure we keep our (inaudible). So this is one of those things. It's kind of still in the laboratory, and we'd expect to roll out over the next couple of years as we make more progress.

    因此,我們將其視為未來的收入計劃。當我們為了滿足投資者對 RASM 性能超過 CASM 的承諾而進行展望時,可以這麼說,我們不想給自己留下一個變幻莫測的市場。因此,我們需要一系列收入計劃,使我們能夠擁有某種前市場,如果你願意的話,可以確保我們保持我們的(聽不清)的好處。所以這是其中之一。它還處於實驗室階段,隨著我們取得更多進展,我們預計將在未來幾年內推出。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question will be from Laurie Aritomi from the Washington Post.

    下一個問題將來自華盛頓郵報的 Laurie Aritomi。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • (inaudible) off of Kyle's question, I wondered how you might characterize Southwest's approach this summer compared to last summer. You mentioned you're in a much better place going in. Last summer was kind of odd because not -- folks weren't -- there was pent-up demand, but all folks weren't vaccinated. So can you talk about this summer versus last summer?

    (聽不清)關於凱爾的問題,我想知道與去年夏天相比,你會如何描述西南航空今年夏天的做法。你提到你進入了一個更好的地方。去年夏天有點奇怪,因為沒有——人們沒有——需求被壓抑,但所有人都沒有接種疫苗。那麼你能談談今年夏天和去年夏天嗎?

  • Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

    Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

  • Yes. Laurie, just generally, I just think that the conditions that the U.S. is operating in is different this summer, this summer coming up as compared to last summer. So last summer, we still had surges of COVID coming. We still had challenges across the country with schools, with daycare, with parent availability, with working from home. There were lots of challenges that created a situation where people just couldn't behave in this pandemic world like they did in pre pandemic. And as a result, when we went into the summer, we should have had more staffing because the tempo of the operations were slower last summer. And we should have had more staffing available or less capacity out there to navigate through that better.

    是的。 Laurie,總的來說,我只是認為今年夏天美國的運營條件有所不同,今年夏天與去年夏天相比。所以去年夏天,我們仍然有大量的新冠病毒來襲。我們在全國各地的學校、日托、家長的可用性以及在家工作方面仍然面臨挑戰。有很多挑戰造成了人們無法像在大流行前那樣在這個大流行的世界中表現的情況。結果,當我們進入夏天時,我們應該有更多的人員,因為去年夏天的操作節奏較慢。我們應該有更多的可用人員或更少的能力來更好地導航。

  • I think some of those conditions are changed as we come into this summer. As you mentioned, there's more vaccines out there. There's more boosters out there. And we've also got a better balance between staffing and our capacity. So we have cushion, more cushion available this year to absorb any shocks that come.

    我認為隨著我們進入今年夏天,其中一些條件發生了變化。正如你提到的,那裡有更多的疫苗。那裡有更多的助推器。我們還在人員配備和能力之間取得了更好的平衡。所以我們有緩衝,今年有更多緩衝來吸收任何衝擊。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Laurie, I think it's exactly what Mike said. We've got, I think, number one, we've got more visibility, I mean, we thought we knew what was happening last summer. And then the demand just surged at the sort of April, May last minute. While we've got a big surge this summer, we've seen it coming for a lot longer, and we've been able to anticipate it. Two, the network is more restored and there's more flight activity, which means you just have a better ability to recover when you have a regular operation and a better ability to move customers and then move employees when we need to.

    是的。勞裡,我認為這正是邁克所說的。我們有,我認為,第一,我們有更多的知名度,我的意思是,我們認為我們知道去年夏天發生了什麼。然後需求在 4 月、5 月的最後一刻激增。雖然今年夏天我們有了大幅增長,但我們已經看到它的到來時間更長了,而且我們已經能夠預料到它。第二,網絡恢復得更好,航班活動也更多,這意味著你只有在正常運營的情況下有更好的恢復能力,在需要時轉移客戶然後轉移員工的能力更好。

  • Another big item is COVID poles. And so we had employees that were going out on -- you have a close contact, you go out, you go out to, I can't remember, it's 5 days or 10 days. And so the number of employees out and then out at the last minute. So it was not predictable. You didn't know until today what your workforce was going to look like in a lot of ways.

    另一個大項目是 COVID 桿。所以我們有員工出去 - 你有密切的聯繫,你出去,你出去,我不記得了,是 5 天或 10 天。因此,員工人數在最後一分鐘退出。所以這是不可預測的。直到今天,你才知道你的員工隊伍在很多方面會是什麼樣子。

  • And so with the change in those policies around COVID, that's gone, so we can have a much better predictability around sick leave and the available workforce. So I'm not saying it's going to be perfect, but I think our ability to manage the summer and our belief that the summer is going to be much more reliable -- from an operational perspective is much better here in '22 than it was in '21.

    因此,隨著圍繞 COVID 的政策發生變化,這種情況已經消失,因此我們可以對病假和可用勞動力有更好的可預測性。所以我並不是說這會是完美的,但我認為我們管理夏天的能力以及我們對夏天將更加可靠的信念——從運營的角度來看,在 22 年比以前要好得多在 21 年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Ethan Clapper from TPG.

    下一個問題來自 TPG 的 Ethan Clapper。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • We're hearing from pilots and from members that swap out that there have been a lot of no shows for pilot classes and that recruiting has been especially difficult in that area. So why is that? And how can Southwest fix that?

    我們從飛行員和換掉的成員那裡聽到,飛行員課程有很多沒有演出,而且該地區的招聘特別困難。那為什麼呢?西南航空如何解決這個問題?

  • Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

    Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

  • Well, Ethan, generally speaking, I would just say Southwest Airlines is the airline for pilots. We've got a very competitive rates of pay, great benefits, good retirement program. And we have a very efficient network with less ground time. And I think that allows our pilots just to get more flying per day than anybody else. They generally receive more pay then as a result of that.

    嗯,Ethan,一般來說,我只會說西南航空公司是飛行員的航空公司。我們有非常有競爭力的薪酬、豐厚的福利、良好的退休計劃。我們有一個非常高效的網絡,地面時間更少。而且我認為這讓我們的飛行員每天比其他任何人獲得更多的飛行。因此,他們通常會收到更多的報酬。

  • So I just -- I feel like the Southwest Airlines is an airline where pilots want to come to. We've protected their careers. We've built great retirement programs and great career earnings for them. So you take that as a foundation of it's a great place to work. I believe, given that, we are going to attract absolutely our fair share of pilots out there from all the pools. We may see ebbs and flows from one class to another, but I think we have all of the tools and the toolkit we need to attract all the pilots that we need.

    所以我只是——我覺得西南航空公司是一家飛行員想來的航空公司。我們保護了他們的職業生涯。我們為他們制定了出色的退休計劃和豐厚的職業收入。所以你把它作為一個工作的好地方的基礎。我相信,鑑於此,我們絕對會從所有人才庫中吸引我們公平份額的飛行員。我們可能會看到從一個班級到另一個班級的潮起潮落,但我認為我們擁有吸引我們需要的所有飛行員所需的所有工具和工具包。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Yes. And I think you got to be careful generalizing. I think, overall, this has not been an issue. You always have no shows. We've had classes, and we've had a good no-show rate -- I mean good show rates, and we've not had a significant portion that didn't show in the class. So this has not been an issue. We recently had a class where we had a higher no-show rate than we expected, and we're trying to understand exactly why that happened, but I wouldn't extrapolate this 1 incident to we have a broad-based problem. So you just got to be careful about that.

    是的。我認為你必須小心概括。我認為,總的來說,這不是問題。你總是沒有節目。我們已經上課了,而且我們的未出現率很高——我的意思是很好的出現率,而且我們沒有很大一部分沒有出現在課堂上。所以這不是問題。我們最近有一堂課,我們的缺席率比我們預期的要高,我們正試圖確切地了解為什麼會發生這種情況,但我不會將這一次事件推斷為我們有一個廣泛的問題。所以你只需要小心這一點。

  • And then number two, there's a ton of work going on. It's a competitive market. And the longer you take to make an offer, the longer you take to get somebody into a slot in a class, the more risk you run that they could go somewhere else. And so there's a ton of work going on between our flight ops department and our people and hiring folks to take those processes down to the absolute minimum, and we're all over that. But I think the main thing is I wouldn't extrapolate what happened in a class to what's happening across the board because it has not been.

    然後第二,有大量的工作正在進行。這是一個競爭激烈的市場。你提出要約的時間越長,你讓某人進入班級的時間越長,你冒的風險就越大,他們可能會去其他地方。因此,我們的飛行操作部門和我們的人員之間正在進行大量工作,並僱用人員將這些流程降至最低限度,我們已經完成了。但我認為主要的是我不會將課堂上發生的事情推斷為全面發生的事情,因為事實並非如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is from Chris Isidore from CNN.

    下一個問題來自 CNN 的 Chris Isidore。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Wondering what you can say about where you see the status of the various labor negotiations. And do you feel any -- it would be advantageous in your hiring efforts if you were to -- be able to wrap those up and be able to let potential new hires know what the labor contract would be if that puts more pressure on the negotiations than maybe in the past years when you were doing the hiring being exactly that you're doing now?

    想知道你能說什麼關於你在哪裡看到的各種勞資談判的狀態。你有沒有覺得——如果你願意的話,這對你的招聘工作有利——能夠結束這些工作,讓潛在的新員工知道如果這會給談判帶來更大的壓力,勞動合同會是什麼?可能比過去幾年你做招聘的時候,你現在正在做的事情?

  • Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

    Michael G. Van de Ven - COO & President

  • Yes. Yes, Chris, so I've been through a lot of labor contract negotiations over the years. And I would just say over the 50 years of Southwest Airlines, I would characterize every contract negotiation is vigorous, is contentious, is passionate on both sides. And what I will tell you is that, over that 50-year period, those kinds of negotiations between the unions and the company, they have manifested themselves, I would say, in the most job secure, the highest productive and the most attractive career earnings opportunity for our people. And that's what our people really want to have. They want to have a company they can count on through good times and bad.

    是的。是的,克里斯,所以這些年來我經歷了很多勞動合同談判。我只想說,在西南航空公司的 50 年裡,我認為每一次合同談判都是充滿活力的、有爭議的、雙方都充滿激情的。我要告訴你的是,在這 50 年的時間裡,工會和公司之間的那種談判,我想說,在最有保障的工作、最高生產力和最有吸引力的職業中表現出來為我們的員工提供收入機會。這就是我們的人民真正想要的。他們希望擁有一家可以在順境和逆境中依靠的公司。

  • And if we can get through the contract negotiations and achieve all of that faster, I'm absolutely for that. But at the end of the day, it's that process that creates that -- the company needs and our people's needs, and we've been very successful at doing that over the years, and I see no reason that we won't be just as successful going forward.

    如果我們能夠通過合同談判並更快地實現所有這些,我絕對贊成。但歸根結底,正是這個過程創造了——公司的需求和我們員工的需求,多年來我們在這方面做得非常成功,我認為我們沒有理由不只是作為成功的前進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And we have time for just one more question, and that question will come from Robert Silk from Travel Weekly.

    謝謝你。我們還有時間再提一個問題,這個問題將來自 Travel Weekly 的 Robert Silk。

  • Robert Silk

    Robert Silk

  • (inaudible) actually had a story about this recently, but what are you -- are you all getting many calls or cancellation requests from individuals who are worried now that there's no mask mandate? And if so, are you allowing cancellations in those cases?

    (聽不清)實際上最近有一個關於這件事的故事,但是你們是什麼——你們是否都接到了很多人的電話或取消請求,這些人現在擔心沒有戴口罩的規定?如果是這樣,您是否允許在這些情況下取消?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO & Director

  • Robert, I -- we watch our customer relations calls and questions every single day. I haven't seen a material rise in that at all. We survey our customers every single day. And I would just start with the percentage of customers that are comfortable flying just overall is very, very high. It's 90%, 90%-plus.

    羅伯特,我——我們每天都在關注客戶關係電話和問題。我根本沒有看到這方面的實質性增長。我們每天都對客戶進行調查。我只想從總體上感到舒適飛行的客戶百分比非常非常高。這是90%,90%以上。

  • The second is we also survey how comfortable our customers are flying without masks, and that number is also very much in favor of our customers being comfortable. And just to mention on the mask, I'm very pleased for our employees and for our customers that they now have a choice. It's tough to wear the mask all day. The data shows that while cases may be rising modestly, the're very low. Hospitalizations are not rising. So I'm just pleased that our customers and our employees now have a choice.

    第二個是我們還調查了我們的客戶在不戴口罩的情況下飛行的舒適程度,這個數字也非常有利於我們的客戶感到舒適。只是提到口罩,我為我們的員工和我們的客戶感到非常高興,他們現在有了選擇。整天戴著口罩很難。數據顯示,雖然病例可能會適度上升,但非常低。住院人數沒有上升。所以我很高興我們的客戶和我們的員工現在有了選擇。

  • We have -- we always have had wonderful flexibility in our policies and our fares. And so every ticket that you buy can be canceled and then those funds held for future use with no change fee. And obviously, if you buy a refundable fare, we will refund that. But if you're not comfortable flying, we'll either refund that if it's refundable and/or we'll allow you to use that -- those funds for future ticket. But generally, overall, no, we're not hearing -- I'm not hearing anything relative to customers canceling because they're now afraid to fly because of the mask mandate change.

    我們有——我們的政策和票價一直都很靈活。因此,您購買的每張機票都可以取消,然後將這些資金保留以供將來使用,無需更改費用。顯然,如果您購買可退款的票價,我們將予以退款。但是,如果您乘坐飛機不舒服,我們將退還該款項(如果可退還)和/或我們將允許您使用該款項——這些資金用於未來的機票。但總的來說,總的來說,不,我們沒有聽到 - 我沒有聽到任何與客戶取消有關的消息,因為他們現在因為口罩規定的變化而害怕飛行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ms. Rutherford for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議轉回給盧瑟福女士做任何閉幕詞。

  • Linda Burke Rutherford - EVP of People & Communications

    Linda Burke Rutherford - EVP of People & Communications

  • Chad, thank you very much, and thank you all for joining us and for putting a little bit of extra time, so we could accommodate all the questions for you this afternoon. If you have any follow-up, our Stellar Communications Group is standing by 214-792-4847 or you can visit us online at www.swamedia.com. Thank you all very much.

    Chad,非常感謝大家,感謝大家加入我們並付出一點額外的時間,所以今天下午我們可以為大家解答所有問題。如果您有任何後續行動,我們的 Stellar Communications Group 隨時待命 214-792-4847,或者您可以訪問我們的網站 www.swamedia.com。非常感謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝你。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。