(LTHM) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Livent Corporation 公佈 2023 年第三季收益,調整後 EBITDA 為 1.2 億美元,較上年增長 8%。儘管收入下降,但該公司調整後的 EBITDA 和利潤率仍然很高。

由於預期銷售下降和價格漲幅較小,Livent 調整了 2023 年全年指引。講者討論了鋰市場價格的下行趨勢以及擴建項目面臨的挑戰。他們對未來鋰價上漲充滿信心,並提到即將與Allkem合併。

在問答環節,講者討論了阿根廷的供應中斷和產量成長。他們也提到了中國的去庫存活動以及北美可能轉向磷酸鋰電池的情況。

講者談到了鋰行業的趨勢和公司的成本改進。他們討論了與 Allkem 和 Phoenix 的潛在合作以及該公司擴大澳洲採礦能力的計劃。發言人也提到了為其工廠收費和購買第三方碳酸鹽的選擇。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call for Livent Corporation. Phone lines will be placed on listen-only mode throughout the conference. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer period. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Daniel Rosen, Investor Relations and Strategy for Livent Corporation. Mr. Rosen, you may begin.

    大家下午好,歡迎參加 Livent Corporation 2023 年第三季財報發布電話會議。在整個會議期間,電話線路將處於僅監聽模式。演講者演講結束後,將進入問答環節。我現在將會議交給 Livent Corporation 投資者關係和策略部門的 Daniel Rosen 先生主持。羅森先生,您可以開始了。

  • Daniel Rosen - IR Manager

    Daniel Rosen - IR Manager

  • Great. Thank you, Jo. Good evening, everyone, and welcome to Livent's third quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining me today are Paul Graves, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Gilberto Antoniazzi, Chief Financial Officer. The slide presentation that accompanies our results, along with our earnings release, can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

    偉大的。謝謝你,喬。大家晚上好,歡迎參加 Livent 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長 Paul Graves;和財務長吉爾伯托·安東尼亞齊。我們的業績附帶的幻燈片演示以及我們的收益發布可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

  • Prepared remarks from today's discussion will be made available after the call. Following our prepared remarks, Paul and Gilberto will be available to address your questions. Given the number of participants on the call, we will request to limit one question and one follow-up for caller. We would be happy to address any additional questions after the call.

    今天的討論準備好的評論將在電話會議後公佈。在我們準備好的演講之後,保羅和吉爾伯托將回答您的問題。考慮到通話參與者的數量,我們將要求對來電者限制提出一個問題和後續行動。我們很樂意在通話後解決任何其他問題。

  • Before we begin, let me remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties concerning specific factors, including, but not limited to, those factors identified in our Form 10-K and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information presented represents our best judgment based on today's information. Actual results may vary based upon these risks and uncertainties. Today's discussion will include references to various non-GAAP financial metrics. Definitions of these terms as well as a reconciliation to the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP are provided on our Investor Relations website.

    在我們開始之前,請允許我提醒您,今天的討論將包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到有關特定因素的各種風險和不確定性的影響,這些特定因素包括但不限於我們的10-K 表格和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中確定的因素。證券交易委員會。所提供的資訊代表我們根據今天的資訊所做的最佳判斷。實際結果可能會因這些風險和不確定性而有所不同。今天的討論將包括對各種非公認會計原則財務指標的引用。我們的投資者關係網站上提供了這些術語的定義以及根據 GAAP 計算和呈現的最直接可比較的財務指標的調整表。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Paul.

    然後,我會將電話轉給保羅。

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Dan. Good evening, everyone. I promise no bad Halloween jokes tonight, I promise. We reported third quarter results that were highlighted by adjusted EBITDA of $120 million, up 8% on a year-over-year basis, with a margin that was roughly flat versus the prior quarter and a 9 percentage point higher margin than a year ago. We're providing an update on progress with our multiple capacity expansion projects, including the impact on expected sales volumes over the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. We will touch on the recent feasibility study released for the Nemaska Lithium project in Quebec, which further underscores both the quality of the Nemaska's assets as well as its importance in serving growing supply chains in North America.

    謝謝你,丹。各位晚上好。我保證今晚不會講糟糕的萬聖節笑話,我保證。我們報告了第三季業績,其中調整後 EBITDA 為 1.2 億美元,年增 8%,利潤率與上一季大致持平,比去年同期高 9 個百分點。我們將提供多個產能擴張項目的最新進展,包括對 2023 年剩餘時間和 2024 年預期銷量的影響。我們將討論最近發布的魁北克 Nemaska 鋰項目的可行性研究,該研究進一步強調了Nemaska 資產的質量及其在服務北美不斷增長的供應鏈方面的重要性。

  • Finally, we will provide an update on our pending merger with Allkem, including the continued progress that has been made and what you can expect in the coming months as we move to meet the targeted close of around the end of 2023. Before providing some market perspectives and Livent business update, I'll turn the call over to Gilberto to discuss our third quarter performance as well as our revised full year 2023 financial guidance.

    最後,我們將提供有關與 Allkem 即將進行的合併的最新信息,包括已取得的持續進展以及您在未來幾個月的預期,因為我們將在 2023 年底左右實現目標交割。在提供一些市場之前觀點和Livent 業務更新,我將把電話轉給Gilberto,討論我們第三季的業績以及修訂後的2023 年全年財務指引。

  • Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Thanks, Paul, and good evening, everyone. Turning to Slide 4. Livent reported third quarter revenue of $211 million, adjusted EBITDA of $120 million and adjusted earnings of $0.44 per diluted share. Volumes sold were roughly flat and lower average realized prices were offset by lower overall costs versus the second quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2022. Although revenue was down 9% on a year-over-year basis, we were able to increase adjusted EBITDA by 8% over the same period. Despite some of the recent declines seen in the lithium market prices, Livent adjusted EBITDA and margin continue to be near all-time highs, reflecting the benefits of our commercial strategy as well as the low-cost position of our resource in Argentina.

    謝謝保羅,大家晚上好。轉向幻燈片 4。Livent 報告第三季營收為 2.11 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 1.2 億美元,調整後每股攤薄收益為 0.44 美元。與 2023 年第二季和 2022 年第三季相比,銷售量大致持平,較低的平均實現價格被較低的總體成本所抵銷。儘管營收年減 9%,但我們能夠增加調整後的營收EBITDA同期成長8%。儘管最近鋰市場價格有所下跌,但 Livent 調整後的 EBITDA 和利潤率仍繼續接近歷史高位,反映了我們商業策略的好處以及我們在阿根廷的資源的低成本地位。

  • Third quarter volumes sold were in line with our expectations. As we stated that any meaningful expansion volumes would only be available in the fourth quarter. On pricing, Livent 's average realized price in the third quarter were lower than the first half of this year, as anticipated, reflecting the continued price declines seen in the market since late Q2, particularly in China. Offsetting this was an improvement in overall costs. This was driven by a few factors, most notably, lower royalties due to the decline in Argentina and Chile export reference prices as well as lower input costs for our other specialty businesses, particularly for butylithium. This resulted in an adjusted EBITDA margins remaining unchanged compared to the second quarter of this year and 9 percentage points higher than a year ago. Livent's total capital spending year-to-date was $239 million, below adjusted cash from operations of $274 million. We expect spending to increase in the fourth quarter as we progress multiple expansions and our estimate for 2023 total capital expenditures between $325 million and $375 million remains unchanged. Our balance sheet and overall liquidity remains very strong. We ended the quarter with $130 million in cash and no draw under our $500 million revolving credit facility. The combination of our current cash position, a strong outlook for cash generation and our ability to draw on the credit facility give us continued confidence in our ability to internally fund our capacity expansions.

    第三季銷售量符合我們的預期。正如我們所說,任何有意義的擴張量只能在第四季度實現。在定價方面,Livent第三季的平均實現價格低於今年上半年,符合預期,反映出自第二季末以來市場價格持續下跌,尤其是在中國。整體成本的改善抵消了這一點。這是由幾個因素推動的,最值得注意的是,由於阿根廷和智利出口參考價格下降而導致特許權使用費下降,以及我們其他特種業務(特別是丁基鋰)的投入成本下降。這導致調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率與今年第二季相比保持不變,比去年同期高出 9 個百分點。 Livent 今年迄今的總資本支出為 2.39 億美元,低於調整後的營運現金 2.74 億美元。隨著我們進行多次擴張,我們預計第四季度的支出將會增加,並且我們對 2023 年資本支出總額在 3.25 億美元至 3.75 億美元之間的估計保持不變。我們的資產負債表和整體流動性仍然非常強勁。本季結束時,我們擁有 1.3 億美元的現金,且 5 億美元的循環信貸額度沒有提款。我們目前的現金狀況、強勁的現金產生前景以及我們利用信貸額度的能力,使我們對自己為產能擴張提供內部資金的能力充滿信心。

  • Moving to Slide 5. You will see Livent has adjusted its guidance for full year 2023 financial performance. Compared to the prior year guidance, this is driven primarily by lower expected volumes sold, along with a smaller expected price increase year-over-year versus 2022. For volumes, the company now expects minimum incremental volumes from capacity expansion in the fourth quarter of this year, resulting in roughly flat volumes for the full year. This will result in higher volume growth in 2024 as we still expect a substantial portion of the 10,000 metric tons of new lithium carbonate capacity to be available. Paul will go into further detail on our expansion shortly.

    前往投影片 5。您將看到 Livent 調整了 2023 年全年財務績效指引。與前一年的指引相比,這主要是由於預期銷量下降,以及與2022 年相比預期價格同比漲幅較小。就銷量而言,該公司目前預計第四季度產能擴張帶來的增量量將達到最低水平。今年,導致全年銷量大致持平。這將導致 2024 年銷售量成長更高,因為我們仍預計 10,000 噸新增碳酸鋰產能中的很大一部分將可用。保羅很快就會詳細介紹我們的擴充。

  • For pricing, we still expect meaningfully higher average realized prices per LC versus 2022, with a year-over-year increase in the 10% to 15% range based on our guidance, following the roughly 130% increase we saw in 2022. We also expect lower costs versus the prior year, primarily related to raw materials and third-party purchases. The company now projects full year 2023 revenue to be in the range of $890 million to $940 million and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $500 million to $530 million. This still represents a significant growth of 13% and 14%, respectively, at the midpoint versus prior year.

    就定價而言,我們仍然預計每張信用證的平均實現價格將顯著高於2022 年,根據我們的指導,繼2022 年約130% 的增長之後,同比增長將在10% 至15% 的範圍內。預計成本將低於上年,主要與原料和第三方採購有關。該公司目前預計 2023 年全年營收將在 8.9 億至 9.4 億美元之間,調整後的 EBITDA 將在 5 億至 5.3 億美元之間。與去年相比,這仍然分別顯著增長 13% 和 14%。

  • I will now turn the call back to Paul.

    現在我將把電話轉回給保羅。

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Gilberto. With the significant downward moves we've seen in lithium market prices in recent months, I wanted to give you our perspective on what we believe drove these movements and what we might be able to expect in the future. When looking at the main lithium indices, it's clear that prices moved lower during the third quarter, and we have seen that with our own market price-based customers as well from data reported by others in the industry. However, when we look at the underlying demand and supply data points year-to-date, we don't see strong evidence that either is meaningfully different to what we had previously expected. On the demand side, we can see that customer buying activity for lithium in Q3 was weaker than what end market demand indicators would imply. For example, NEV battery installations in China were up 24% year-over-year for the third quarter and were 32% higher through the first 3 quarters of 2023. EV sales in China continued to reach new records during the third quarter. Globally, EV sales grew 25% in the month of September and are up 37% year-to-date. But it's fair to say that in the third quarter, we did not see demand for lithium at levels that are consistent with these numbers.

    謝謝,吉爾伯托。隨著近幾個月鋰市場價格的大幅下跌,我想向您提供我們對推動這些趨勢的因素以及我們對未來的預期的看法。在查看主要鋰指數時,很明顯,第三季價格下跌,我們從我們自己的基於市場價格的客戶以及業內其他公司報告的數據中看到了這一點。然而,當我們查看今年迄今為止的基本需求和供應數據時,我們沒有看到強有力的證據表明這兩者與我們先前預期的有顯著差異。在需求方面,我們可以看到第三季客戶對鋰的購買活動弱於終端市場需求指標所暗示的程度。例如,第三季中國新能源汽車電池安裝量年增 24%,到 2023 年前三季成長 32%。第三季中國電動車銷量持續創下新紀錄。全球範圍內,9 月電動車銷量成長 25%,今年迄今成長 37%。但可以公平地說,在第三季度,我們沒有看到鋰需求達到與這些數字相符的水平。

  • On the supply side, the third quarter typically has higher seasonal production in China, but the amount of new supply that actually came to market was not meaningfully higher than most analysts forecasted. We continue to see production expansion delays globally. And keep in mind that the increased sources of supply that most observers typically point to, namely African spodumene or Chinese lepidolite are much higher cost material on the global cost curve and certainly a higher cost than today's indices are pointing to. In fact, we've already started to see reduced production from some of these higher costs and largely unintegrated operators. And as we've said in the past, the amount of lepidolite production that has come into the market is actually a symptom of insufficient supply from other sources. Also, it's worth noting that the average lithium content in hard rock production has been lowered in most operations resulting in greater output, but higher processing costs and lower downstream utilization rates.

    在供應方面,第三季中國的季節性產量通常較高,但實際進入市場的新供應量並沒有明顯高於大多數分析師的預測。我們繼續看到全球生產擴張的延遲。請記住,大多數觀察家通常指出的供應來源增加,即非洲鋰輝石或中國鋰雲母,在全球成本曲線上是成本更高的材料,而且肯定比今天的指數指出的成本更高。事實上,我們已經開始看到一些較高的成本和很大程度上未整合的營運商導致產量減少。正如我們過去所說,進入市場的鋰雲母產量實際上是其他來源供應不足的症狀。此外,值得注意的是,大多數作業中硬岩生產中的平均鋰含量已降低,導致產量增加,但加工成本更高,下游利用率更低。

  • What we see is that the energy storage supply chain, broadly speaking, is working through inventories that were built at the end of '22 and early 2023. We see this destocking occurring well downstream of lithium itself with battery cell producers mainly in China curtailing or even stopping production as they reduce their inventory levels of finished cells. And as we've seen in prior lithium price cycles, the magnitude of price moves for lithium is being amplified by the behavior of lithium purchases, particularly in China. With underlying long-term end market demand remaining strong and supply chain inventory levels declining to levels that cannot support more than a few weeks or maybe months of sales. If history is repeated, we will see a rapid increase in the price of backer materials when buying restarts. It's important to note that this dynamic we are referring to is not being driven by the behavior of Livent's core customer base, namely the global OEMs. They continue to be highly focused on securing reliable sources of long-term lithium supply and especially through supply chains that are able to be all or in part IRA subsidy eligible. This key customer base is also focusing more closely on its role as a partner in providing commercial, technical and financial support for lithium development projects. And while we expect OEMs to continue to seek out ways to stimulate more lithium production in the future, we believe they will be far more focused on supporting proven companies rather than those with more expensive or technically challenging resources.

    我們看到的是,從廣義上講,儲能供應鏈正在處理22 年底和2023 年初建立的庫存。我們看到這種去庫存發生在鋰本身的下游,主要是中國的電池生產商減少或減少庫存。甚至由於減少成品電池的庫存水準而停止生產。正如我們在先前的鋰價格週期中所看到的,鋰價格變動的幅度正在被鋰購買行為放大,尤其是在中國。由於潛在的長期終端市場需求仍然強勁,供應鏈庫存水準下降至無法支援超過幾週甚至幾個月的銷售的水平。如果歷史重演,當購買重啟時,我們將看到支撐材料的價格迅速上漲。值得注意的是,我們所指的這種動態並不是由 Livent 核心客戶群(即全球 OEM)的行為所驅動的。他們繼續高度關注確保長期鋰供應的可靠來源,特別是透過能夠全部或部分獲得 IRA 補貼資格的供應鏈。這個關鍵客戶群也更密切地關注其作為合作夥伴的角色,為鋰開發專案提供商業、技術和財務支援。雖然我們預計原始設備製造商未來將繼續尋求刺激更多鋰產量的方法,但我們相信他們將更加專注於支持成熟的公司,而不是那些擁有更昂貴或技術上具有挑戰性資源的公司。

  • The key takeaway I would leave you with is that today's market conditions do not, to us, reflect equilibrium supply/demand conditions for lithium. The factors that give us confidence in sustainably higher lithium prices in the foreseeable future haven't changed. Demand growth for qualified, high-quality product continues to be extremely challenging for the supply side to meet in the near to medium term. The trend of greater customer demands and tighter product standards continues. The marginal producers continue to have production costs in excess of the current index prices. And in addition, we see no strong indications that a pullback in underlying energy storage market demand is imminent or that there have been fundamental changes to the longer-term growth trajectory for the lithium industry.

    我想留給您的關鍵結論是,對我們來說,今天的市場狀況並不反映鋰的均衡供需狀況。讓我們對鋰價在可預見的未來持續走高充滿信心的因素並沒有改變。對於供應方來說,在中短期內滿足合格、高品質產品的需求成長仍然極具挑戰性。客戶需求更大、產品標準更嚴格的趨勢仍在持續。邊際生產者的生產成本持續高於目前指數價格。此外,我們沒有看到任何強有力的跡象表明潛在的儲能市場需求即將回落,或者鋰行業的長期成長軌跡發生了根本性的變化。

  • I'd like to go into more detail now on the status of Livent's multiple ongoing expansion projects on Slide 7. In Argentina, work continued on the company's 2 equals 10,000 metric ton phases of lithium carbonate expansion. Construction for the first phase is complete and was finished in line with the timing expectations laid out at the beginning of this year. But the process of commissioning the new units has been slower than we had previously forecast. There are always issues discovered in the transition from construction to early-stage commissioning. However, we are finding they are more challenging to resolve when operating in remote regions and especially in jurisdictions where access to specialized skilled labors limited due to a lack of local talent and challenges in bringing international experts into the country.

    我現在想在投影片 7 上更詳細地介紹 Livent 多個正在進行的擴建項目的狀況。在阿根廷,該公司的 2 等於 10,000 公噸碳酸鋰擴建項目仍在繼續進行。第一階段的建設已經完成,並按照今年年初制定的時間預期完成。但新機組的調試過程比我們之前的預測慢。從建設到前期調試的過程中總是會發現一些問題。然而,我們發現,在偏遠地區運作時,解決這些問題更具挑戰性,特別是在由於缺乏當地人才以及將國際專家引入該國面臨的挑戰而導致獲得專業技術勞動力有限的司法管轄區。

  • In addition, where there are greater controls around imports of replacement parts such as in Argentina, further delays are taking place. These challenges are not specific to Livent or our production processes. In fact, we don't even believe it's limited to the lithium industry as a whole as lithium expansion projects compete with projects in other sectors, such as oil & gas and mining, for limited manpower, materials and equipment. This delay in our first phase commissioning means that Livent no longer expects incremental expansion volumes to be available for sale in 2023, and this is reflected in our updated guidance. However, we are forecasting a substantial portion of the 10,000 metric tons of capacity to be available in 2024 with the first commercial volume sold in the first quarter. In addition to this expansion, the second 10,000-ton carbonate expansion phase in Argentina is expecting first commercial volumes to be sold in the second half of 2024.

    此外,在阿根廷等國家,對更換零件進口的控制更為嚴格,導致延誤情況進一步加劇。這些挑戰並非 Livent 或我們的生產流程所特有的。事實上,我們甚至不認為這僅限於整個鋰行業,因為鋰擴建項目與石油天然氣和採礦等其他行業的項目競爭有限的人力、材料和設備。第一階段調試的延遲意味著 Livent 不再預計 2023 年增量擴建量可用於銷售,這在我們更新的指南中得到了反映。然而,我們預計 10,000 噸產能中的很大一部分將於 2024 年投入使用,第一批商業銷售將在第一季售出。除了此次擴建之外,阿根廷第二期萬噸級碳酸鹽擴建計畫預計將於 2024 年下半年售出第一批商業產量。

  • Our lithium hydroxide expansions in the U.S. and China are progressing on track and as previously communicated. The company's additional 5,000-ton hydroxide unit Bessemer City, which was completed last year, has been producing material while getting qualified with relevant customers and will ramp up next year alongside the first Argentina carbonate expansion page. Construction is also well advanced at the 15,000 metric ton hydroxide facility, a new location in the province of Zhejiang China, with completion targeted for before year-end 2023, which is slightly ahead of schedule. This 15,000 metric ton facility will double Livent's production capacity in China. By the end of 2024, Livent will be largely balanced between lithium hydroxide capacity and the carbonate production capabilities to treat it.

    正如之前所傳達的,我們在美國和中國的氫氧化鋰擴張正在按計劃進行。該公司額外的 5,000 噸氫氧化物裝置 Bessemer City 於去年竣工,一直在生產材料,同時獲得相關客戶的認可,並將於明年與阿根廷首個碳酸鹽擴建項目一起投產。位於中國浙江省的新廠址 15,000 噸氫氧化物工廠的建設也進展順利,預計 2023 年底前完工,略高於原計畫。這座 15,000 噸的工廠將使 Livent 在中國的產能增加一倍。到 2024 年底,Livent 將在氫氧化鋰產能和處理氫氧化鋰的碳酸鹽生產能力之間基本達到平衡。

  • During the third quarter, Livent released an SEC SK 1300 compliant feasibility study for the Upstream Whabouchi mine portion of the Nemaska Lithium project. As a reminder, Livent has a 50% equity interest in and provide operational support to the integrated 34,000 metric ton lithium hydroxide project located in Quebec, Canada. Livent is providing technical and commercial expertise and has been appointed to engage in sales and marketing efforts on its behalf. The Nemaska Lithium comprises 2 development projects: the Whabouchi mine and the [Bécancour] lithium hydroxide plant. The feasibility study for Whabouchi is a comprehensive technical report supporting the underlying economics of the Nemaska Lithium project. This project continues to be very attractive due to its scale with an asset operating life of over 30 years based on current resource definition. It's strong relative cost position, its strategic location in North America to serve growing regional demand and its favorable sustainability profile, including access to low-carbon hydroelectric energy.

    第三季度,Livent 發布了 Nemaska 鋰計畫上游 Whabouchi 礦部分的符合 SEC SK 1300 的可行性研究。需要提醒的是,Livent 擁有位於加拿大魁北克省的 34,000 噸氫氧化鋰綜合項目 50% 的股權,並為其提供營運支援。 Livent 提供技術和商業專業知識,並被任命代表其從事銷售和行銷工作。 Nemaska Lithium 包括 2 個開發項目:Whabouchi 礦和 [Bécancour] 氫氧化鋰工廠。 Whabouchi 的可行性研究是一份支持 Nemaska 鋰計畫基礎經濟的綜合技術報告。該專案仍然非常有吸引力,因為其規模龐大,根據當前資源定義,資產使用壽命超過 30 年。它具有強大的相對成本地位、其在北美的戰略位置可以滿足不斷增長的區域需求以及良好的可持續性特徵,包括獲得低碳水力發電。

  • The study is consistent with our previously outlined expectations for the project. Total capital requirement for the development of the Whabouchi spodumene mine and the integrated lithium hydroxide facility in Bécancour is projected at approximately $1.6 billion Whabouchi, comprising roughly $400 million of the total amount. Commercial sales of spodumene concentrate are expected to begin in 2025 and continue until the lithium hydroxide facility comes into full production. First, production of lithium hydroxide is expected in late 2026. Having recently celebrated the 5-year anniversary of Livent's IPO, we wanted to review what Livent has achieved in that 5-year period in what has been a very dynamic and often unpredictable market. Five years ago, although demand expectations for lithium were high, driven by the rapid adoption of EVs, there was much greater uncertainty about the pace of adoption than it is today. Only China had made a significant push via government support, and the U.S. was not expected to play a major role in the near-term demand or supply picture. The fast growth of demand in Europe, largely due to EU policy setting and the direct incentives provided in the U.S. by legislation such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, was certainly not seen as likely. Battery technology is still in flux. The debate between lithium carbonate, whether lithium carbonate or hydroxide was going to be predominant with still a major debate, at least with investors.

    該研究與我們先前對該項目的預期一致。開發 Whabouchi 鋰輝石礦和巴坎庫爾綜合氫氧化鋰設施的總資本需求預計約為 16 億美元 Whabouchi,佔總金額約 4 億美元。鋰輝石精礦的商業銷售預計將於 2025 年開始,並持續到氫氧化鋰工廠全面投產。首先,預計將於 2026 年底生產氫氧化鋰。最近慶祝了 Livent IPO 5 週年,我們想回顧一下 Livent 在這 5 年期間在一個非常活躍且往往難以預測的市場中取得的成就。五年前,儘管在電動車快速採用的推動下,對鋰的需求預期很高,但採用速度的不確定性比現在大得多。只有中國透過政府支持做出了重大推動,預計美國不會在近期需求或供應格局中發揮重要作用。歐洲需求的快速增長,主要是由於歐盟的政策制定和美國《通貨膨脹削減法案》等立法提供的直接激勵,當然被認為不太可能。電池技術仍在不斷變化。碳酸鋰之間的爭論,無論是碳酸鋰還是氫氧化鋰,仍將是一場重大爭論,至少對投資者來說是如此。

  • And on the supply side, the bears pointed to massive expansions in low-cost brine resources in South America, fulfilling all future demand needs and possibly more. But what we've actually seen is brine-based production steadily lose market share in this time frame. Others thought novel extraction technologies such as direct lithium extraction or DLE, would move the cost curve lower. But again, we've actually seen Chinese lepidolite resources with the production cost 3x to 4x out of lithium triangle brine operations coming into operation to meet supply shortfalls. As these dynamics have unfolded, we've seen lithium indices mature. And as they have done so, we've seen a fundamental shift to take place in how high and how low lithium pricing can go. Until the last few years, the peak pricing we saw for locum carbonate and then really only for a few months was in the low $20 per kilo.

    在供應方面,看空者指出南美洲低成本鹽水資源的大規模擴張,可以滿足未來所有的需求,甚至可能更多。但我們實際看到的是,鹽水生產在這段時間內逐漸失去市場份額。其他人則認為直接鋰萃取或 DLE 等新型萃取技術將降低成本曲線。但我們再次看到,中國鋰雲母資源的生產成本是鋰三角鹵水作業的三到四倍,它們正在投入運營,以滿足供應短缺。隨著這些動態的展開,我們看到鋰指數日趨成熟。正如他們所做的那樣,我們看到鋰價格的高低發生了根本性的轉變。直到最近幾年,我們看到的碳酸鈣的最高價格只有幾個月才處於每公斤 20 美元的低點。

  • In the last 2 years, we saw multiple quarters with carbonate pricing up 2x or 3x that level. And on the low end, in 2020, we saw carbonate prices fall to $6 per kilo and even lower, but as demand growth has required higher cost resources to come online and as the true capital cost of lithium projects has slowly been revealed. Today, we see a cost curve where a meaningful proportion of global supply is today operating at marginal cost that are at least 3x that level. Even prior to 2018, Livent was looking for ways to improve its profitability profile, both in absolute terms, but also in terms of predictability of earnings. Livent has always looked to maximize the sale price of every lithium unit we produce and also create a business that protects us from the most extreme volatility in lithium pricing.

    在過去兩年中,我們看到碳酸鹽價格在多個季度上漲了 2 倍或 3 倍。在低端,2020 年,我們看到碳酸鹽價格跌至每公斤 6 美元甚至更低,但隨著需求成長需要更高成本的資源才能上線,並且鋰專案的真實資本成本已慢慢顯現。今天,我們看到一條成本曲線,其中很大一部分全球供應的邊際成本至少是該水準的 3 倍。甚至在 2018 年之前,Livent 就在尋找方法來改善其盈利能力,無論是絕對盈利能力還是盈利可預測性。 Livent 始終致力於最大限度地提高我們生產的每台鋰產品的銷售價格,並創建一項業務來保護我們免受鋰價格最極端波動的影響。

  • The benefits of this approach can be seen when looking at our historical realized price per lithium carbonate equivalent or LCE as well as analyzing year-over-year changes in that realized price versus market-based references. We've attempted to summarize the results of this strategy on Slide 8. The first thing you can see is that in almost every historical market environment, we have typically been able to generate a higher price for each unit of lithium we produced compared to selling lithium carbonate to customers at market prices. By focusing on building a leading position in value-added products, we have meaningfully outperformed in pricing terms. But just as important, we have been able to reduce the volatility of our realized pricing year-over-year, creating greater predictability of earnings, which is a key benefit when assessing the attractiveness of investing in multiyear lithium projects.

    當查看我們碳酸鋰當量或LCE的歷史實現價格以及分析該實現價格與基於市場的參考價格的逐年變化時,可以看出這種方法的好處。我們試圖在投影片8 上總結此策略的結果。您可以看到的第一件事是,在幾乎所有歷史市場環境中,與銷售相比,我們通常能夠為我們生產的每單位鋰產生更高的價格以市價向客戶提供碳酸鋰。透過專注於在增值產品方面建立領先地位,我們在定價方面的表現明顯優於其他公司。但同樣重要的是,我們已經能夠逐年減少已實現定價的波動性,從而提高收益的可預測性,這是評估多年期鋰專案投資吸引力時的關鍵好處。

  • You can see from this data that when market prices were at their lowest in the 2019 to '21 period, Livent had its greatest outperformance in terms of both pricing levels and predictability. While the large and rapid run-up in market prices in 2022 meant we underperformed in terms of pricing growth as pricing received from these historic highs in 2023, we've restored our price premium and expected to grow further still by the end of the year. It is with the same perspective that Livent will look to operate its business moving forward and how the company ultimately believes it will drive the most value for shareholders.

    從這些數據中可以看出,當市場價格在 2019 年至 21 年間處於最低水平時,Livent 在定價水平和可預測性方面的表現最為出色。雖然 2022 年市場價格大幅快速上漲意味著我們在定價成長方面表現不佳,因為定價從 2023 年的歷史高點回升,但我們已經恢復了溢價,並預計到年底將進一步成長。正是基於同樣的視角,Livent 將尋求向前發展其業務,以及公司最終相信它將如何為股東帶來最大價值。

  • With this said, I want to highlight some of the key tailwinds behind our business and what you can expect from Livent as we move through 2024. First, Livent will be producing and selling meaningfully higher volumes to customers next year, potentially 50% more than in 2023. This is the result of multiple years of expansionary investment, and this trend of increasing year-over-year volumes will continue for the next few years. This also means that we will be generating higher cash flow in 2024 under a wide range of different price scenarios, including one where market prices remain at today's level throughout 2024. And we intend to continue to use this cash flow to fund multiple highly attractive capacity expansion opportunities available to us while maintaining a healthy balance sheet. Livent also chose to lock in some pricing for the business, which will benefit us in 2024, regardless of future market price movement. This was done as we continue to reset lower price contracts that were entered into with long-term customers prior to the run-up in lithium prices that began around 2021. A green to fixed prices just for next year gives us some additional confidence of delivering a year-over-year price increase on a meaningful portion of our volumes.

    話雖如此,我想強調一下我們業務背後的一些關鍵推動力,以及您對2024 年Livent 的期望。首先,Livent 明年將向客戶生產和銷售更多數量的產品,可能會比2024 年增加50% 。到2023年。這是多年擴張性投資的結果,這種同比增長的趨勢將在未來幾年持續下去。這也意味著我們將在各種不同的價格情境下在2024 年產生更高的現金流,包括市場價格在2024 年全年保持在當前水準的情境。我們打算繼續利用這些現金流為多個極具吸引力的產能提供資金我們可以在保持健康的資產負債表的同時獲得擴張機會。 Livent 還選擇鎖定該業務的部分定價,無論未來市場價格走勢如何,這都將使我們在 2024 年受益。這樣做是因為我們繼續重置在 2021 年左右開始的鋰價格上漲之前與長期客戶簽訂的較低價格合約。明年的綠色到固定價格給了我們額外的信心來交付我們很大一部分銷量的價格同比上漲。

  • You should expect Livent to continue bringing greater clarity to his business through its commercial strategy, its diverse product offering and leading cost profile. Livent's customers value the high quality of our products and our growth capabilities and are willing to enter in long-term agreements with firm volumes and other forms of commitment to support us. In order to be a reliable partner, we will structure these contracts to give us confidence to invest in expansion while also retaining the ability to take advantage of market opportunities when available. Livent also benefits from the diversification brought by its other lithium specialties products, including butyllithium. In addition to serving a variety of attractive end markets outside of energy storage, the fact that price adjustments in these products are typically based on movements in key underlying input costs means that there tends to be more stability in the profit margins of these businesses. Despite the recent decline in market prices, Livent's adjusted EBITDA margin continues to be above 50% today. This is a result of the company's best-in-class low-cost resource base and its operating cost discipline, which supports profitability through different market cycles. And it is this discipline around pricing and costs that gives us confidence in our ability to continue to fund the investments in our world-class resources from internally generated funds.

    您應該期待 Livent 繼續透過其商業策略、多樣化的產品供應和領先的成本狀況使他的業務更加清晰。 Livent 的客戶重視我們產品的高品質和我們的成長能力,並願意簽訂長期協議,提供穩定的銷售和其他形式的承諾來支持我們。為了成為可靠的合作夥伴,我們將制定這些合同,讓我們有信心投資擴張,同時保留利用可用市場機會的能力。 Livent 也受惠於其他鋰特種產品(包括丁基鋰)帶來的多元化。除了服務儲能以外的各種有吸引力的終端市場外,這些產品的價格調整通常基於關鍵基礎投入成本的變動,這一事實意味著這些業務的利潤率往往更加穩定。儘管近期市場價格下跌,但 Livent 調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率仍維持在 50% 以上。這是該公司一流的低成本資源基礎及其營運成本紀律的結果,這支持了不同市場週期的獲利能力。正是這種圍繞定價和成本的紀律使我們相信我們有能力繼續利用內部產生的資金為我們的世界級資源的投資提供資金。

  • Everything we just discussed refers to live and alone. But of course, we are nearing the closing of our merger with Allkem to create a leading global lithium chemicals producer. The merger will immediately increase our global scale and growth profile, further diversify our asset base and product offering and improve our vertically integrated footprint. You've seen our shared long-term vision for the new company before on Slide 10. While some of these strengths will take time to fully realize, we expect to see real tangible benefits in 2024, including improved product flows between our production assets and lower combined operating costs as we work toward run rate synergies of $125 million and onetime capital savings of $200 million. We will, of course, have more to share with you early next year after the close, but we remain excited as ever about the opportunities this merger will bring to all shareholders.

    我們剛才討論的一切都是指生活和孤獨。當然,我們即將完成與 Allkem 的合併,以創建一家全球領先的鋰化學品生產商。此次合併將立即擴大我們的全球規模和成長前景,進一步使我們的資產基礎和產品供應多樣化,並改善我們的垂直整​​合足跡。您之前已經在幻燈片10 上看到了我們對新公司的共同長期願景。雖然其中一些優勢需要時間才能完全實現,但我們預計將在2024 年看到真正的實實在在的好處,包括改善我們的生產資產和生產資產之間的產品流。降低綜合營運成本,因為我們致力於實現 1.25 億美元的運行率協同效應和 2 億美元的一次性資本節省。當然,我們將在明年初交易結束後與您分享更多信息,但我們仍然對此次合併將為所有股東帶來的機會感到興奮。

  • I want to conclude on Slide 11 by highlighting some of the key merger-related milestones since our last earnings call, as well as what to expect ahead of our targeted closing. Livent and Allkem have received all required preclosing regulatory approvals for the transaction with the exception of foreign investment screening in Australia. Approvals received include antitrust in Canada, China, Japan, South Korea and the U.S. as well as completion of investment screenings in the U.K. and the U.S. Additionally, we have announced that the name of the combined new company will be Arcadium Lithium. Upon closing, Arcadium Lithium is expected to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker ALTM and CDIs or chest depository interests are expected to be quoted on the ASX under the ticker LTM. The Australian Scheme Booklet, which includes the independent expert report should be ready for all CHEM's investors shortly, and we also expect to provide the S-4 proxy statement to Livent stockholders in the coming weeks.

    在投影片 11 的最後,我想重點介紹自上次財報電話會議以來與合併相關的一些關鍵里程碑,以及我們目標交割之前的預期。 Livent 和 Allkem 已獲得本次交易所需的所有交割前監管批准,但澳洲的外國投資篩選除外。獲得的批准包括加拿大、中國、日本、韓國和美國的反壟斷批准,以及英國和美國的投資篩選的完成。此外,我們還宣布合併後的新公司的名稱將為 Arcadium Lithium。收盤後,Arcadium Lithium 預計將在紐約證券交易所上市,股票代號為 ALTM,而 CDI 或胸部存託權益預計將在澳洲證券交易所上市,股票代號為 LTM。包括獨立專家報告的澳洲計畫手冊很快就會為所有 CHEM 投資者準備好,我們也預計在未來幾週內向 Livent 股東提供 S-4 委託書。

  • Once all relevant documentation is approved by the applicable regulators and distributed, Livent and Allkem will seek approval from their respective shareholders at special meetings expected to take place late in the fourth quarter. Dates for the votes should be announced shortly, and the transaction is still expected to close around the end of calendar year 2023. With your support, we look forward to combining our teams, assets and collective strengths to create a leading integrated global lithium company.

    一旦所有相關文件獲得相關監管機構的批准並分發,Livent 和 Allkem 將在預計於第四季末舉行的特別會議上尋求各自股東的批准。投票日期應該很快就會公佈,交易預計仍將在 2023 年底左右完成。在您的支持下,我們期待結合我們的團隊、資產和集體優勢,創建一家領先的全球綜合鋰公司。

  • I will now turn the call back to Dan for questions.

    現在我將把電話轉回給丹詢問問題。

  • Daniel Rosen - IR Manager

    Daniel Rosen - IR Manager

  • Thank you, Paul. Jo, you may now begin the Q&A session.

    謝謝你,保羅。喬,您現在可以開始問答環節了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, Mr. Rosen. (Operator Instructions) Your first question Kevin McCarthy at Vertical Research Partners.

    謝謝你,羅森先生。 (操作員說明)您的第一個問題垂直研究夥伴的 Kevin McCarthy。

  • Kevin William McCarthy - Partner

    Kevin William McCarthy - Partner

  • Paul, as with the market prices continue to descend, what destruction of supply have you witnessed? And where do you think prices might stabilize based on your forward view of demand?

    Paul,隨著市場價格持續下跌,您目睹了哪些供應破壞?根據您對需求的前瞻性看法,您認為價格可能會穩定在哪裡?

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, I think we've seen probably 3 areas of supply interruption. The obvious one, and we can probably see a few announcements overnight last night coming out of China were non-integrated producers are shutting down, whether that's for extended maintenance periods or whatever the reason is, we're certainly seeing the economics of running a plant such as that really require the producer to have 2 trade-offs, keep the plant running and maybe cover your fixed costs and run on a contribution basis. But after a while, it just becomes too expensive and so it's cheaper to put the plan on hold for a while. So we've certainly seen a few of those.

    是的。看,我認為我們可能已經看到了 3 個領域的供應中斷。顯而易見的是,昨晚我們可能會看到中國昨晚發布了一些公告,非綜合生產商正在關閉,無論是為了延長維護期還是無論出於什麼原因,我們肯定會看到運行像這樣的工廠確實需要生產者進行兩個權衡,保持工廠運行,也許支付你的固定成本並在貢獻的基礎上運行。但過了一段時間,它就變得太貴了,所以暫時擱置該計劃會更便宜。所以我們肯定已經看到了其中的一些。

  • We've seen lepidolite production reduce. It's not always as clear as we would like, but some of the data I've seen suggests of 40% or so reduction in lepidolite production starting to take place in China. And frankly, we don't see many people looking to maximize production from existing operations, I think we possible people are looking to run the most efficient way that they can. And if that means maybe dialing back some production for a while, then that's what we've seen some of them do at the margins. And again, a few announcements suggesting that there will be production cuts from some existing operations out there. In terms of where it stabilizes, it is a trillion-dollar question. I think you've heard me say in the past, the pricing above $40, $50 a kilo just isn't rational and couldn't be justified by fundamentals. I think pricing of much below $20 a kilo with today's supply curve also partly rationalized on period of time and isn't supported by fundamentals. It doesn't mean it can't happen for a couple of quarters. I think again, you've probably heard me talk the -- picky number anywhere between low $20s and high $30s a kilo of depending on the grade, depending on the product, depending on the geography, seems to be a place that you get both appropriate return on existing assets, but also sufficient reinvestment economics to continue to invest in the assets. Unfortunately, I expect pricing will be constantly passing through that range upwards on downwards for a few years still to come.

    我們已經看到鋰雲母產量減少。雖然情況並不總是像我們希望的那樣清楚,但我看到的一些數據表明,中國的鋰雲母產量開始減少 40% 左右。坦白說,我們沒有看到很多人希望最大限度地提高現有營運的產量,我認為我們可能的人正在尋求盡可能最有效的方式運作。如果這意味著可能會暫時縮減一些生產,那麼我們就看到他們中的一些人在邊緣所做的事情。一些公告再次表明,一些現有業務將減產。就其穩定在哪裡而言,這是一個價值數萬億美元的問題。我想你過去曾聽我說過,每公斤高於 40 美元、50 美元的定價是不合理的,而且從基本面來看也是不合理的。我認為,按照目前的供應曲線,遠低於每公斤 20 美元的定價在一段時間內也部分合理化,並且不受基本面的支持。這並不意味著這在幾個季度內不會發生。我再次想,你可能聽過我說過——每公斤 20 美元到 30 美元之間的挑剔數字,取決於等級、取決於產品、取決於地理位置,似乎是你得到的地方既要有適當的現有資產回報,又要有足夠的再投資經濟性來繼續投資資產。不幸的是,我預計在未來幾年內,價格將持續上下波動。

  • Kevin William McCarthy - Partner

    Kevin William McCarthy - Partner

  • Thank you for that. And then secondly, if I may, Paul. If the current production expectations hold in Argentina, how much would you expect your production capability to grow in 2024? Is it fair to say it would be perhaps 40% or more?

    謝謝你。其次,如果可以的話,保羅。如果阿根廷目前的產量預期保持不變,您預計 2024 年您的產能將成長多少?可以說大概是 40% 或更多嗎?

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • I think by the end of the year, our production capability will be almost double what it is today in Argentina. In terms if you talk about ability to produce and sell and become a bit gun-shy over the challenges on commissioning, but certainly, 40% is absolutely well within the range. The first expansion, 9,500 tonnes is essentially largely complete today. It's just this final commissioning step. And we're hoping to start production at some point in December, which gives us commercial volumes early next year, a month or 2 range of that. And then it's just a function of how quickly we ramp up. But certainly, you can expect 7,000, 8,000, 9,000 tonnes more capacity, which itself represents a 35% to 45% increase with the second phase also looking to be mechanically complete by the middle of the year. And we are, by the way, changing our commissioning process for the second raise to have an ongoing commissioning rather than waiting until all construction is complete in order to help accelerate the gap between construction completion and production. We certainly expect to get some volumes out of that second expansion, too. So certainly, those kind of range numbers you're talking about are absolutely based targets for us.

    我認為到今年年底,我們的生產能力將幾乎是阿根廷目前的兩倍。就生產和銷售能力而言,如果您對調試方面的挑戰感到有點膽怯,但可以肯定的是,40% 絕對在這個範圍內。首次擴建 9,500 噸今天已基本完成。這只是最後的調試步驟。我們希望在 12 月的某個時候開始生產,這樣我們就能在明年初(即一到兩個月的時間)實現商業量。然後,這只是我們提升速度的函數。但當然,您可以預期產能將增加 7,000、8,000、9,000 噸,這本身就意味著 35% 至 45% 的成長,第二階段也有望在今年年中機械完成。順便說一句,我們正在改變第二次加薪的調試流程,進行持續調試,而不是等到所有施工完成,以幫助加快施工完成和生產之間的差距。我們當然也希望從第二次擴張中獲得一些銷售量。所以當然,你所說的這些範圍數字絕對是我們的目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We go next now to Chris Kapsch at Loop Capital Markets.

    謝謝。接下來我們請來 Loop Capital Markets 的 Chris Kapsch。

  • Christopher John Kapsch - MD

    Christopher John Kapsch - MD

  • Curious about your comments about the destocking activity in China, juxtaposed against a comment about the end market demand remaining relatively stable or unchanged in terms of its growth. So just curious if you have any visibility into where that overbuild has happened? Has it been more a function of an overbuild of the overall Gigafactory capacity? Or is it existing justifiable suppliers that just simply overbuilt their inventories as prices were going higher or maybe one bigger expectations of growth rates? Any visibility there?

    我很好奇您對中國去庫存活動的評論,與有關終端市場需求在增長方面保持相對穩定或不變的評論。所以只是好奇您是否了解過度建設發生在哪裡?這是否更多是超級工廠整體產能過度建設的結果?或者是現有的合理供應商只是隨著價格上漲而過度增加庫存,或者可能是對成長率的更大期望?那裡有能見度嗎?

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, I think the best I can off for you is the following. We characterize battery cell producers in China Tier 1, 2 and 3. And we've certainly seen some of the larger Tier 2 days, we particularly keen to pull back production, whether they were building to try and take market share from the big Tier 1s, whether they were running their assets, if you built a plant and you're running it at 25% utilization, that's not economically sensible. So we certainly believe that there's been a number of producers out there running at utilization rates that make the plant now profitable, but produce more cells than they actually have sold with the expectation that they can then go win market share by having these cells available.

    是的。聽著,我想我能為你提供的最好的就是以下內容。我們描述了中國一、二、三級電池生產商的特點。我們當然也看到了一些規模較大的二級電池生產商,我們特別熱衷於縮減產量,無論他們是為了試圖從大型電池生產商那裡奪取市場份額1,無論他們是否正在運行其資產,如果您建造了一座工廠並且以 25% 的利用率運行,這在經濟上是不明智的。因此,我們當然相信,有許多生產商的利用率使工廠現在可以獲利,但生產的電池比實際銷售的電池多,並期望他們可以透過提供這些電池來贏得市場份額。

  • If you bear in mind, I think we counted 70 battery manufacturers in China, not only we from some of the reinstation storage and other applications. And you've, I'm sure. seen a lot of commentary pushing from Chinese policymakers for some consolidation in this entire supply chain. There's no doubt there's been financial pressures on some. And those that have attempted to survive by lowering their unit cost, building cells and then trying to find business for them, don't seem to have been particularly successful with that strategy and financial pressures are paid to core up with them in the second half of the year, forcing them to liquidate this inventory largely to stay alive. I don't think they all will stay alive, but that's the trend that we've seen happening.

    如果你記住的話,我想我們統計了中國70家電池製造商,而不僅僅是我們來自一些恢復儲存和其他應用程式。我確信你已經做到了。中國政策制定者發表了許多評論,要求對整個供應鏈進行整合。毫無疑問,有些人面臨財務壓力。那些試圖透過降低單位成本、建造電池然後試圖為他們尋找業務來生存的公司,似乎並沒有在這一戰略上取得特別成功,而且下半年將面臨與他們核心競爭的財務壓力今年,迫使他們清算這些庫存主要是為了維持生存。我不認為他們都會活下去,但這就是我們所看到的趨勢。

  • Christopher John Kapsch - MD

    Christopher John Kapsch - MD

  • Okay. Thanks for that. And then my follow-up question is just on your portrayal of the industry, certainly more sanguine than I don't know how to describe the [anxiety] infused move to the stock market that's just devaluing lithium equities right now. So I'm curious if one of the themes that feeds into that that investor sentiment is just more about perceptions of slowdown in North America, where your commentary is a little bit more about China, where the market is bigger. But I'm wondering if you're seeing or acknowledging any slowdown in demand in North America based on your conversations with that ecosystem and a little bit more nuanced. To the extent that there is a slowdown and it's about the price points, we've seen test to lower the prices that are needed to get these EVs more within reach of mainstream consumers. One way to do that is to reduce battery costs, one way to reduce battery costs is LFP over NMC. I'm wondering if that whole theme is manifesting in a way that's shifting a little bit of the market in North America more towards LFP based on your commercial engagement with these customers. Sorry for the nuisance…

    好的。感謝那。然後我的後續問題只是關於您對這個行業的描述,當然比我不知道如何描述股市的[焦慮]走勢更加樂觀,而股市目前正在貶值鋰股票。因此,我很好奇,投資者情緒的主題之一是否更多地是對北美經濟放緩的看法,而您的評論更多是關於市場更大的中國。但我想知道,根據您與該生態系統的對話以及更細緻的對話,您是否看到或承認北美的需求放緩。在某種程度上,速度放緩且與價格點有關,我們已經看到了降低價格所需的測試,以使這些電動車更容易被主流消費者接受。實現這一目標的一種方法是降低電池成本,降低電池成本的一種方法是 LFP over NMC。我想知道整個主題是否會以某種方式體現出來,即根據您與這些客戶的商業互動,將北美市場的一部分更多地轉向 LFP。抱歉打擾了…

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • A lot of questions in there, but let me tackle a couple of it maybe in reverse order. I don't see any change in the LFP versus high nickel trend. We always expected lower nickel batteries, whether it's LFP or others to be an important part of the lower cost of vehicle market, the high-volume market. So I still expect that to be the case. And the high nickel expectations and therefore lithium hydroxide expectations. I have to be a little bit careful with this because I can go back 2 or 3 years, sometimes important, one problem with the lithium industry, as you know, we don't really have a precedent for it out there over the last 20 or 30 years. But what we are starting to see now is at least we're seeing some cycles that are going through if you will, some kind of EV or energy storage cycles rather than other industrial application cycles.

    裡面有很多問題,但讓我以相反的順序解決幾個問題。我認為 LFP 與高鎳趨勢相比沒有任何變化。我們一直期望低鎳電池,無論是磷酸鐵鋰還是其他電池,都將成為低成本汽車市場、大批量市場的重要組成部分。所以我仍然希望情況是如此。鎳的預期較高,因此氫氧化鋰的預期也較高。我必須對此小心一點,因為我可以追溯到 2 或 3 年前,有時很重要,鋰行業的一個問題,如你所知,我們在過去 20 年裡並沒有真正的先例。或30年。但我們現在開始看到的是,至少我們看到了一些正在經歷的週期,如果你願意的話,某種電動車或能源儲存週期,而不是其他工業應用週期。

  • And what we're seeing in here and when we go back and look at the last 5 or 6 years, which feels like a lifetime to some of us and we compare the first conversations we had with OEMs, maybe not even 2 or 3 years ago, and they would share with us their expectation for looking hydroxide demand in, let's say, 27 or 28. And in that 2 or 3 years, their expectations for that number has more than tripled on a customer-by-customer basis. We never thought that was achievable. We never seen that, that is going to be possible in terms of building a supply chain that quickly. We have always had up big chunks of some of these independent or individual OEM statements about what their capabilities are.

    我們在這裡看到的,當我們回顧過去的5 或6 年時,這對我們中的一些人來說就像一生一樣,我們將我們與OEM 的第一次對話進行比較,甚至可能不是2 或3 年之前,他們會與我們分享他們對 27 或 28 年氫氧化物需求的預期。在這 2 到 3 年內,他們對這個數字的預期在逐個客戶的基礎上增加了兩倍多。我們從未認為這是可以實現的。我們從未見過如此快速地建立供應鏈是可能的。我們一直有大量的獨立或個別 OEM 聲明來說明它們的功能。

  • And so for us at least, it's why it's a difficult conversation. When we say we don't really see the market developing in any different way than what we expected. We're very sensitive to the fact that what we expect it may not be what the market expected. But we've tried to be relatively transparent about this, that we see supply continuing to be the constraint on demand. And we see today supply will be the constraint on demand for the next few years for the foreseeable future. I don't think changes in sentiment with the major OEMs are particularly dramatic. I think they are a natural part of the process of the [tedious] problems that North America is absolutely going to go through in this inevitable transition to EVs, whether it's smaller, cheaper vehicles or not, whether it's challenges or charging infrastructure that need to be addressed first over the next few years. So all bumps in the road, but the long-term trend is not impacted at all, to be honest, Chris, by this.

    至少對我們來說,這就是為什麼這是一場艱難的對話。當我們說我們並沒有真正看到市場的發展方式與我們預期的不同時。我們對這樣一個事實非常敏感:我們的預期可能與市場的預期不同。但我們試圖對此保持相對透明,我們認為供應仍然是需求的限制。我們認為,在可預見的未來,供應將成為未來幾年需求的限制因素。我認為主要原始設備製造商的情緒變化並不是特別顯著。我認為它們是北美在向電動車不可避免的過渡過程中絕對會經歷的[繁瑣]問題過程中自然的一部分,無論是更小、更便宜的車輛,無論是挑戰還是充電基礎設施需要未來幾年首先要解決的問題。因此,道路上充滿了坎坷,但說實話,克里斯,長期趨勢根本沒有受到影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We'll go next now to Corinne Blanchard at Deutsche Bank.

    謝謝。接下來我們將採訪德意志銀行的科琳‧布蘭查德 (Corinne Blanchard)。

  • Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst

    Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst

  • Could you go back a little bit on the guidance revision. I think you mentioned and you focused quite a lot on the volume impact in more [softly], but could you give us the take and put to on the low end in the high end of the guidance?

    您能回顧一下指導修訂版嗎?我想你提到過,並且你非常關注[溫和地]對銷量的影響,但是你能給我們介紹一下指導的高端低端的情況嗎?

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Gilberto, do you want to take that?

    吉爾伯托,你想接受這個嗎?

  • Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. So Corinne, in terms of guidance, the revision down is, again, primarily driven by volume. And the way you get a look at that is we're taking approximately 3,500 metric tons down in terms of volume for this year. And that's primarily what is driving our revenue and EBITDA for this year. And from an EBITDA perspective, by losing this volume, part of this has been offset by improved cost that we're getting, particularly for some inputs that we use in butyllithium and even on hydroxide and carbonate production and the lower royalties in Argentina. So pretty much from a revenue perspective is 3,500 metric tons of LCEs. And from an EBITDA perspective, is the benefit impact of the 3,500 metric tons offset by cost improvement that we're achieving throughout essentially in the second half of the year.

    是的。因此,科琳(Corinne)就指導意見而言,下調主要是由成交量驅動的。您可以看到,我們今年的產量減少了約 3,500 噸。這也是我們今年營收和 EBITDA 的主要推動力。從EBITDA 的角度來看,透過損失這一產量,部分成本已被我們獲得的成本提高所抵消,特別是對於我們在丁基鋰、甚至氫氧化物和碳酸鹽生產中使用的一些投入以及阿根廷較低的特許權使用費而言。因此,從收入角度來看,LCE 幾乎為 3,500 噸。從 EBITDA 的角度來看,這 3,500 噸的效益影響被我們基本上在今年下半年實現的成本改善所抵消。

  • Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst

    Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst

  • And then just as a follow-up, I want to keep with you Gilberto. In terms of cost expectations because I think you have been doing (inaudible) interms of cost control in percentage (inaudible). Can you try to give us a little bit of color what you expect for the last quarter and also into 2024?

    作為後續行動,我想繼續跟你們聊聊吉爾伯托。就成本預期而言,因為我認為您一直在按百分比(聽不清楚)進行成本控制(聽不清楚)。您能否試著向我們透露您對上一季以及 2024 年的預期?

  • Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • In terms of cost, you said?

    你說的是成本方面?

  • Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst

    Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Look, from a cost perspective, actually, we've been having some good news. As you'll probably see this in the back slide we have, we actually have a favorable quarter-over-quarter on cost, again, driven by some of the royalties and some inputs that we purchased from third parties, and we expect to see the same in Q4. So again, we continue to see some, frankly, not expected, but very good cost improvements over the second half of this year. And looking to next year, again, for a little early, we're just in process of subplan for next year. But I think some inputs that we buy, they are driven by carbonate prices in China, to be honest. So if prices remain where it is, we're going to have some improvement costs in our specialty business. And I think we might have some benefits also for currency in some other countries. But again, it's a little early to confirm that.

    看起來,從成本角度來看,實際上,我們已經得到了一些好消息。正如您可能會在我們的背面幻燈片中看到的那樣,我們實際上在成本上有一個有利的季度環比,這再次受到我們從第三方購買的一些特許權使用費和一些投入的推動,我們預計會看到第四季也是如此。因此,坦白說,今年下半年我們繼續看到一些雖然不是預期的但非常好的成本改善。再次展望明年,我們只是在製定明年的子計畫。但老實說,我認為我們購買的一些投入是由中國碳酸鹽價格驅動的。因此,如果價格保持不變,我們的特種業務將會有一些改進成本。我認為我們可能也會為其他一些國家的貨幣帶來一些好處。但同樣,現在確認這一點還為時過早。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We go next now to Aleksey Yefremov at KeyBanc.

    謝謝。接下來我們請聽聽 KeyBanc 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

  • Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

    Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

  • Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. Paul, is [payments] from customers still a potential source of attractive funds for Nemaska in current environment?

    謝謝。大家下午好。 Paul,在當前環境下,客戶的[付款]仍然是 Nemaska 有吸引力的資金的潛在來源嗎?

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Okay. I think the ARA is a different formula for many of the customers in terms of what they're trying to do. And I think securing low cost of higher qualified material. In my conversations today, the conversations and the opportunities for support and health that we saw a year or 2 ago, it still on the table today now. We've never thought this was available to everybody or for everything or for every single investment opportunity. Nemaska certainly has some characteristics to it that you would think lend themselves pretty well to what a lot of OEMs are trying to do in North America. And if a prepayment helps secure favorable treatment at Nemaska, then generally speaking, absolutely, I think that conversation is one that many OEMs are willing to have.

    好的。我認為 ARA 對許多客戶來說是一個不同的公式,就他們想要做的事情而言。我認為確保高品質材料的低成本。在我今天的談話中,我們在一兩年前看到的談話以及支持和健康的機會,現在仍然擺在桌面上。我們從未想過這對每個人、所有事物或每一個投資機會都是可用的。 Nemaska 當然有一些特點,您可能會認為這些特點非常適合許多 OEM 廠商在北美嘗試做的事情。如果預付款有助於確保 Nemaska 的優惠待遇,那麼一般來說,我認為這種對話絕對是許多 OEM 廠商願意進行的。

  • Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

    Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

  • Thanks, Paul. And maybe to follow up on Nemaska, just given let's say we stay with car pricing environment for a while and the current capital markets environment, is it still your expectation that you can internally fund your share of Nemaska CapEx and was free cash flow and whatever other means and don't need to go to the debt markets or something some new level? It's a new form of financing.

    謝謝,保羅。也許要跟進 Nemaska,假設我們在汽車定價環境中停留一段時間以及當前的資本市場環境,您是否仍然期望您可以在內部為您的 Nemaska 資本支出份額提供資金並且自由現金流等等有其他方式並且不需要進入債務市場或某種新境界的東西嗎?這是一種新的融資形式。

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, absolutely. Look, I think the Nemaska itself would make up some debt markets we may. As I'm sure you know, there's a lot of capital out there or has been chasing lithium, and it's not always necessarily on our core commercial opportunity because there's some opportunities from incentives from governments, from innovation-type funds and so on and so forth. And there's definitely going to be opportunities for that. We absolutely expect to be able to fund our portion of Nemaska's capital requirements. And all the conversations we have with our partner IQ are all on the basis that Livent will be funding each share of the equity required in there from internal sources. We will not be heading into the debt or the equity markets to fund Nemaska.

    是的。看,絕對是。看,我認為 Nemaska 本身可能會構成一些債務市場。我相信你知道,有很多資本在那裡或一直在追逐鋰,這並不總是我們的核心商業機會,因為政府的激勵措施、創新基金等等都有一些機會。向前。一定會有這樣的機會。我們絕對希望能夠滿足 Nemaska 資本要求中我們的部分。我們與合作夥伴 IQ 進行的所有對話都是基於 Livent 將從內部來源為所需的每一股股權提供資金。我們不會進入債務或股票市場來為 Nemaska 提供資金。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We'll go next now to Steve Byrne at Bank of America.

    謝謝。接下來我們請美國銀行的史蒂夫·伯恩 (Steve Byrne) 發言。

  • Stephen Byrne

    Stephen Byrne

  • Thank you. In your due diligence with Allkem and you certainly dug into that [Bécancour] lithium extraction facility in Argentina. I'm curious whether you see opportunities to improve that operation with your technology and/or benefit from the access to labor challenges and replacement parts that you highlighted, call? And/or could this lead to a pull forward of the SaldaVita project that I think Allkem pushed back a couple of years.?

    謝謝。在您與 Allkem 的盡職調查中,您肯定深入了解了阿根廷的 [Bécancour] 鋰提取設施。我很好奇您是否看到了利用您的技術改進操作的機會和/或從您強調的勞動力挑戰和替換零件中受益?和/或這是否會導致 SaldaVita 項目的推進,我認為 Allkem 推遲了幾年。?

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • We'll come back to Steve, by the way. Yes, look, I think there's definitely opportunity. Let me step back a little. I don't look at anything Allkem is been doing in Argentina. I think it needs to be fixed. I think they're doing a fine job with what they have, what they built. I think we all know that there are certain decisions that we have made at various points in the life of a project that somehow constrain that project's capabilities in the future. So I think what Allkem did originally is producing a mix of technical and battery grade that is probably not going to change. It's not a big focus of ours to try and change that mix. And I think they are doing actually a very good job of improving their production rates and their operating rates there. But the expansion is a different conversation. And I think we both recognize how we can help each other and how, for example, expertise we have, and we've mentioned this before in DLE. At some point, the lowest facility is going to run out of land to expand to pond-based systems. And so moving into some form of DLE-based process, which a Allkem looking at, we can absolutely accelerate. And we can also determine whether actually some pond-based expansions maybe are the right way forward for both our operations at Phoenix, but also integrating maybe what SaldaVita does. I think there's a big opportunity potentially to share infrastructure in (inaudible) between SaldaVita and Phoenix and not far away from each other. And shipping grind 10 kilometers from SaldaVita to our processing capability. That's a drop in the ocean not when intended relative to other brine trucking routes that we know exist out there in lithium world. So I do think there are going to be some pretty meaningful opportunities to both accelerate and optimize our expansion plans for both parties.

    順便說一句,我們會回到史蒂夫。是的,你看,我認為絕對有機會。讓我退一步。我沒有關注阿爾肯在阿根廷所做的任何事情。我認為它需要修復。我認為他們利用他們擁有的、他們建造的東西做得很好。我想我們都知道,我們在專案生命週期的不同階段所做的某些決定會在某種程度上限制該專案未來的能力。因此,我認為 Allkem 最初所做的是生產技術和電池等級的組合,這可能不會改變。嘗試改變這種組合並不是我們的重點。我認為他們在提高生產力和開工率方面實際上做得非常好。但擴張則是另一回事了。我認為我們都認識到我們如何能夠互相幫助,以及我們如何擁有專業知識,我們之前在 DLE 中已經提到過這一點。在某些時候,最低的設施將耗盡土地來擴展到基於池塘的系統。因此,進入 Allkem 正在研究的某種形式的基於 DLE 的流程,我們絕對可以加速。我們還可以確定一些基於池塘的擴張實際上是否是我們在鳳凰城業務的正確前進方向,而且還可以整合 SaldaVita 所做的事情。我認為 SaldaVita 和 Phoenix 之間存在共享基礎設施(聽不清楚)的巨大機會,而且彼此相去不遠。從 SaldaVita 到我們的處理能力的運輸距離為 10 公里。相對於我們所知的鋰世界中存在的其他鹽水運輸路線來說,這只是滄海一粟。因此,我確實認為將會有一些非常有意義的機會來加速和優化雙方的擴張計劃。

  • Stephen Byrne

    Stephen Byrne

  • And then maybe moving north, do you think that your Whabouchi mine might benefit from what they've learned in James Bay. And I think Allkem was planning to ship the James Bay spodumene to China. Is there the feasibility of processing that down at your Bécancour facility?

    然後也許向北移動,你認為你的瓦布奇礦可能會從他們在詹姆斯灣學到的東西中受益嗎?我認為阿爾肯正計劃將詹姆斯灣鋰輝石運往中國。在您的巴坎庫爾工廠進行加工是否可行?

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Look, I'm not sure Allkem actually necessarily committed to shipping that spot concentrate to China. I know it was one of their options, but I don't think it was our first option. I think actually, the benefits that we get from Whabouchi and we see this when we talk to the Allkem guys about James Bay, the expertise they have at Mt Catlin and the expertise and the knowledge they have of operating spodumene concentrate, operations, trains, mining, everything, and they absolutely make a big difference to what we'll be able to do it with BT. I think in terms of James Bay itself, I think the options around Bécancour are certainly interesting ones. Bécancoue was always designed to be expandable. It's a 34,000 tonne unit we have there. The footprint is it big enough to at least double, if not more. There are maybe a few questions around infrastructure that we would have to answer. But certainly, we've already expressed an interest in exploring whether that's the right economic model for James Bay post close. But frankly, I think some of the options all come had on the table, whether it's making an intermediate product or building elsewhere also absolutely it is a pretty serious consideration, too.

    看,我不確定 Allkem 是否真的一定致力於將現貨濃縮物運送到中國。我知道這是他們的選擇之一,但我不認為這是我們的第一選擇。我認為實際上,我們從Whabouchi 獲得的好處,當我們與Allkem 的員工談論詹姆斯灣、他們在卡特林山的專業知識以及他們在操作鋰輝石精礦、運營、火車方面的專業知識和知識時,我們看到了這一點。採礦,一切,它們絕對會對我們透過 BT 實現的目標產生重大影響。我認為就詹姆斯灣本身而言,我認為巴坎庫爾周圍的選擇肯定很有趣。 Bácancoue 的設計始終是可擴展的。我們在那裡有一個 34,000 噸的裝置。佔地面積是否足夠大,至少可以增加一倍,甚至更多。我們可能必須回答一些有關基礎設施的問題。但當然,我們已經表示有興趣探索這是否是詹姆斯灣交易結束後正確的經濟模式。但坦白說,我認為一些選擇都已經擺在桌面上,無論是製造中間產品還是在其他地方構建,這絕對也是一個非常認真的考慮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We'll go next now to Pavel Molchanov at Raymond James.

    謝謝。接下來我們將邀請 Raymond James 的 Pavel Molchanov。

  • Pavel S. Molchanov - Research Analyst

    Pavel S. Molchanov - Research Analyst

  • Obviously, there have been other M&A headlines across the lithium value chain. And I'm curious, once the merger of equals closes, do you perceive the combined company as a consolidator for the future, particularly with regard to some of the junior miners?

    顯然,整個鋰價值鏈上還有其他併購頭條新聞。我很好奇,一旦對等合併完成,您是否認為合併後的公司是未來的整合者,特別是對於一些初級礦工而言?

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Look, I think an important capability we have, I just mentioned is our Australian capabilities. And we have in mind that it's getting toward or will have a mine is getting towards end of life above ground. And so I certainly think understanding and capabilities to go underground what those economics don't like, whether it makes sense. But I also think we have the capabilities there, absolutely to look at junior mining opportunities done there in Australia. For sure. Everything's a value conversation. Everything is good about. There's a massive disconnect today, massive between the value someone's ascribing to a very, very early stage or technically challenging project in Australia. With only a maiden resource without full ownership, all sorts of technical points a lot of value being assigned terms by various people down there in Australia. And so a little challenging to me to be perfectly honest to know where the Australian M&A market plays out and therefore, what opportunities are going to be available to us, but we absolutely want to have a significant mining presence in Australia, and that will almost certainly mean that we have to get pretty aggressive with our strategy of acquiring new assets over there at some point post close.

    你看,我認為我們擁有的一項重要能力,我剛才提到的是我們澳洲的能力。我們知道,地雷的地上壽命正在接近或即將結束。因此,我當然認為那些經濟學不喜歡的理解和深入地下的能力,無論它是否有意義。但我也認為我們有能力在那裡尋找在澳洲進行的初級採礦機會。一定。一切都是價值對話。一切都很好。今天,人們對澳洲非常非常早期或技術上具有挑戰性的專案的價值之間存在著巨大的脫節。由於只有原始資源,沒有完全所有權,各種技術點都被澳洲的不同人賦予了很高的價值。因此,老實說,要了解澳洲併購市場的發展情況以及我們將獲得哪些機會,對我來說有點挑戰,但我們絕對希望在澳洲擁有重要的礦業業務,這幾乎將是一個巨大的挑戰。當然意味著我們必須在交易結束後的某個時刻採取非常激進的收購新資產的策略。

  • Pavel S. Molchanov - Research Analyst

    Pavel S. Molchanov - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Following up, thinking about Livent and stand-alone, your capital program this year is at a record level, $350 million at the midpoint, directionally, how much higher will that be in 2024?

    好的。接下來,想想 Livent 和獨立,你們今年的資本計畫處於創紀錄的水平,中點為 3.5 億美元,方向性的,到 2024 年會高出多少?

  • Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • I can take that, Paul.

    我可以接受,保羅。

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • I think for next year, as a Livent stand-alone will be a slightly lower level than we are this year.

    我認為明年,Livent 的獨立水平將略低於今年的水平。

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • But if I could maybe just add a comment to that, though, because I think it's an important point. Of course, it's important to know what the capital investment that we have. I think you've seen the balance sheet that we have today is pretty solid. You see the cash flow that we're generating today. We look into 2024. And when we look at the volume increase that we have coming, when we look at the amount of our portfolio that is already either locked in and are pricing with customers or is structured in such a way because of the way we price it off input costs where the profitability is pretty stable, pretty predictable, pretty clear. We're expecting cash flow to continue to grow in the future. If market practice stay exactly where they are today right now for all of next year, it's hard for me to imagine a scenario where our internal generated cash flow, our EBITDA does not climb next year because of the way we structured our business and the way we are going about taking our product to the market...

    但如果我可以對此添加評論的話,因為我認為這是一個重要的觀點。當然,了解我們擁有的資本投資是很重要的。我想你已經看到我們今天的資產負債表非常穩健。您可以看到我們今天產生的現金流。我們展望 2024 年。當我們看到即將到來的數量增長時,當我們看到我們的投資組合數量要么已經鎖定並與客戶定價,要么由於我們的方式而以這種方式構建時在盈利能力相當穩定、可預測、非常明確的情況下,將其定價為投入成本。我們預計未來現金流將持續成長。如果市場實踐在明年全年都保持現在的狀態,我很難想像我們內部產生的現金流、我們的 EBITDA 明年不會因為我們的業務結構和方式而攀升的情況我們正在將我們的產品推向市場.....

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We'll go next now to [David Song] at CICC.

    謝謝。接下來我們請聽 CICC 的 [David Song]。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is [David Song] from CICC. Thanks for taking my questions. Our first question is that given that comparing to your original plan, it may take more time for your cognac from Argentina catch up with your lithium hydroxide expansion. So how would you utilize these new hydroxide capacity? Would it be possible to do something like toll treatment? Or it is necessary to wait until your new carbonate volume from Argentina is online?

    我是中金公司的[David Song]。感謝您回答我的問題。我們的第一個問題是,與你們原來的計劃相比,你們的阿根廷干邑可能需要更多的時間才能趕上你們的氫氧化鋰擴張。那麼您將如何利用這些新的氫氧化物產能呢?是否可以做收費處理之類的事情?或需要等到您來自阿根廷的新碳酸鹽卷上線?

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Good question. I don't think tolling them is a sensible option for it. I'm not quite sure who we would toll for. It would require somebody with excess carbonate. But that is maybe to make commitments in hydroxide that they can't meet and are therefore looking for someone to toll for them, also not frankly, business we want to get into. The tolling business is not our business. Could we purchase third-party carbonate and use that to party carbonate in those plants? Maybe.

    好問題。我不認為向他們收費是明智的選擇。我不太確定我們要為誰收費。這需要有人擁有過量的碳酸鹽。但這可能是他們無法兌現的氫氧化物承諾,因此正在尋找有人為他們收費,坦白說,這也是我們想要進入的業務。收費業務不是我們的事。我們可以購買第三方碳酸鹽並將其用於這些工廠中的碳酸鹽嗎?或許。

  • The challenge with that, frankly, there's a couple of challenges. One of them we found the supply very unreliable. People will supply us carbonate when they've got excess carbonate. I want to move it. The minute they can shift it somewhere at a higher price. They either jackup price up or they won't -- we don't price up markets. So the economics are a little complicated for us to be certain of. But the second and, just as importantly, like our customers have pretty rigorous qualification processes. And if we produce hydroxide from carbonate, if we change that company, we have to requalify it. These are our plans to necessarily lend themselves to switching supply very quickly. We can, of course, and we will and have, in fact, qualified more than one source of carbonate, but you have to have a lot of confidence that, that carbonate is going to be there to go through that process. I think frankly, our expectation is that if we're not running them flat out on day 1, we don't run them flat out and they won, and we wait for both the carbonate to be available and the appropriate customer contracts to be in place before we start producing them.

    坦白說,存在一些挑戰。其中之一我們發現供應非常不可靠。當人們有過量的碳酸鹽時,他們就會向我們提供碳酸鹽。我想移動它。一旦他們可以以更高的價格將其轉移到某個地方。他們要么抬高價格,要么不抬高價格——我們不會抬高市場價格。因此,我們要確定的經濟學有點複雜。但第二個,同樣重要的是,我們的客戶有相當嚴格的資格流程。如果我們用碳酸鹽生產氫氧化物,如果我們更換該公司,我們必須重新對其進行資格認證。這些是我們的計劃,必然有助於快速切換供應。當然,我們可以,事實上,我們將會並且已經對不只一種碳酸鹽來源進行了鑑定,但你必須要有很大的信心,碳酸鹽將在那裡經歷這個過程。坦白說,我們的期望是,如果我們沒有在第一天全力以赴,我們就不會全力以赴,他們就贏了,我們等待碳酸鹽可用並簽訂適當的客戶合約。在我們開始生產之前就位。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Thank you, Paul. Crystal clear. And a quick follow-up on your fixed price contracts of lithium hydroxide. Will we still expect some price reset again by the end of this year for next year?

    謝謝你,保羅。晶瑩剔透。並快速跟進您的氫氧化鋰固定價格合約。我們是否仍預計明年年底前會再次調整價格?

  • Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

    Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, we've got to be careful with the terminology. We don't actually have any fixed price contracts anymore. All of our contracts have moved to market-based pricing. That does not mean daily, monthly, weekly, whatever pricing against an index in most cases. But we do have a structure with our customers where it either is mechanically predefined. So we know exactly where the price will go relative to market prices or we have the opportunity to sit down with them as we've done last year, and we've done again from 2024 and say, let's agree on a price for 2024 based on market conditions, and that will be the price at which we sell you in 2024. We'll continue to explore those opportunities. But frankly, as our portfolio grows, as we have more material available and probably more contracts that are truly market-based. We'll continue to value even more some of the fixed agreements, annual fixed agreements, which really hard back to how lithium's price 6, 7 years ago to help bring some predictability to our earnings profile. So we will continue to do that. I think you've seen from the data, the over cycles, we're not leaving value on the table for this approach. It's quite the opposite. We actually think that by having more predictability and ultimately, premium pricing over the volatile market prices, we're actually generating more value from this strategy, even if in any given quarter, you might see things a little differently from the outside.

    是的,我們必須小心術語。我們實際上不再有任何固定價格合約。我們所有的合約都已轉向基於市場的定價。這並不意味著在大多數情況下每天、每月、每週,無論是針對指數的定價。但我們確實與客戶建立了一個結構,其中要么是機械預定義的。因此,我們確切地知道價格相對於市場價格的走向,或者我們有機會像去年那樣與他們坐下來,我們從 2024 年開始再次這樣做,並說,讓我們就 2024 年的價格達成一致根據市場情況,這將是我們在2024 年向您出售的價格。我們將繼續探索這些機會。但坦白說,隨著我們投資組合的成長,我們擁有更多可用材料,可能還有更多真正基於市場的合約。我們將繼續更加重視一些固定協議、年度固定協議,這些協議確實很難回到六、七年前的鋰價格,以幫助我們的獲利狀況帶來一些可預測性。所以我們將繼續這樣做。我想你已經從數據中看到,在整個週期中,我們沒有為這種方法留下價值。事實恰恰相反。實際上,我們認為,透過具有更多的可預測性以及最終相對於波動的市場價格的溢價,我們實際上從該策略中產生了更多價值,即使在任何特定季度,您可能會看到與外界略有不同的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, it appears we have no further questions today. Mr. Rosen, I'll hand things back over to you.

    女士們先生們,看來我們今天沒有其他問題了。羅森先生,我會把東西還給你。

  • Daniel Rosen - IR Manager

    Daniel Rosen - IR Manager

  • Great. That's all the time we have for the call today, but we will certainly be around following the call to address any additional questions that you may have. Thanks, everyone, and have a good evening.

    偉大的。這就是我們今天電話會議的全部時間,但我們肯定會跟進電話會議,以解決您可能提出的任何其他問題。謝謝大家,祝大家晚上愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, Ms. Rosen. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the Livent Corporation Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. Thanks for joining. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝你,羅森女士。女士們先生們,Livent Corporation 2023 年第三季財報發布電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。