Livent Corp (LTHM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call for Livent Corporation.

大家下午好。歡迎來到 Livent Corporation 2022 年第四季度收益發布電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Daniel Rosen, Investor Relations and Strategy for Livent Corporation. Mr. Rosen, you may begin.

我現在將會議轉交給 Livent Corporation 投資者關係和戰略部的 Daniel Rosen 先生。羅森先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Bo. Good evening, everyone, and welcome to Livent's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Paul Graves, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Gilberto Antoniazzi, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，博。大家晚上好，歡迎來到 Livent 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。今天加入我的是總裁兼首席執行官 Paul Graves；首席財務官 Gilberto Antoniazzi。

The slide presentation that accompanies our results, along with our earnings release, can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. Prepared remarks from today's discussion will be made available after the call. Following our prepared remarks, Paul and Gilberto will be available to address your questions.

可以在我們網站的“投資者關係”部分找到伴隨我們結果的幻燈片演示以及我們的收益發布。今天討論的準備好的評論將在電話會議後提供。在我們準備好的評論之後，Paul 和 Gilberto 將可以回答您的問題。

Given the number of participants on the call today, we would request a limit of 1 question and 1 follow-up per caller. We'd be happy to address any additional questions after the call. Before we begin, let me remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties concerning specific factors, including, but not limited to, those factors identified in our release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information presented represents our best judgment based on today's information. Actual results may vary based upon these risks and uncertainties. Today's discussion will include references to various non-GAAP financial metrics. Definitions of these terms as well as a reconciliation to the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP are provided on our Investor Relations website.

考慮到今天電話會議的參與者人數，我們要求每位來電者最多只能提出 1 個問題和 1 個跟進。我們很樂意在通話後解決任何其他問題。在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您，今天的討論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受制於與特定因素有關的各種風險和不確定性，包括但不限於我們在發布的新聞稿和我們提交給證券交易所的文件中確定的那些因素和交易委員會。所提供的信息代表了我們根據今天的信息做出的最佳判斷。實際結果可能因這些風險和不確定因素而異。今天的討論將包括對各種非 GAAP 財務指標的引用。我們的投資者關係網站上提供了這些術語的定義以及與根據 GAAP 計算和呈現的最直接可比財務指標的調節。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Paul.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給保羅。

Thank you, Dan, and good evening, everyone. Livent continued its strong performance in the fourth quarter and finished the full year 2022 with record financial results. Adjusted EBITDA of $367 million in 2022 was over 5x higher than in 2021. This significant improvement was a result of higher average realized prices across all of our lithium products. We expect to generate higher profitability in 2023 as we build on this performance. This is driven by further increases in average realized prices across our portfolio of lithium products as well as higher sales volumes with the first phase of our Argentina expansion coming online during the year.

謝謝丹，大家晚上好。 Livent 在第四季度繼續保持強勁表現，並以創紀錄的財務業績結束了 2022 年全年。 2022 年調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.67 億美元，比 2021 年高出 5 倍以上。這一顯著改善是我們所有鋰產品平均實現價格較高的結果。我們希望在這一業績的基礎上，在 2023 年產生更高的盈利能力。這是由於我們鋰產品組合的平均實現價格進一步上漲，以及隨著我們在阿根廷擴張的第一階段於年內上線，銷量增加。

We are expecting roughly 20% higher sales volumes in 2023, starting in the second half of the year. This translates to an adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $510 million to $580 million, a roughly 50% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. We expect further enhancements to Livent's revenue growth, profitability and cash flow as we bring additional volumes online in 2024 and in the following years.

從今年下半年開始，我們預計 2023 年的銷量將增長約 20%。這意味著調整後的 EBITDA 指導範圍為 5.1 億美元至 5.8 億美元，中點同比增長約 50%。我們預計 Livent 的收入增長、盈利能力和現金流會進一步增強，因為我們將在 2024 年和接下來的幾年中增加在線量。

Before I get into more detail regarding 2023 and other focus areas, I'll turn the call over to Gilberto to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2022 performance as well as our announced 2023 financial guidance.

在詳細介紹 2023 年和其他重點領域之前，我將把電話轉給吉爾伯托，討論我們第四季度和 2022 年全年的業績以及我們宣布的 2023 年財務指導。

Thanks, Paul, and good evening, everyone. Turning to Slide 4. Livent reported fourth quarter revenue of $219 million, adjusted EBITDA of $108 million and adjusted earnings of $0.40 per diluted share, while up considerably versus the same quarter in 2021, results were roughly flat versus the third quarter. As highlighted in our last earnings call, a larger portion of sales were delivered to customers under older contracts with price at a lower fixed prices, resulting in a negative mix impact. For the full year 2022, we reported revenue of $813 million, adjusted EBITDA of $367 million and $1.40 of adjusted earnings per diluted share, all records for the company.

謝謝，保羅，大家晚上好。轉到幻燈片 4。Livent 報告第四季度收入為 2.19 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.08 億美元，調整後每股攤薄收益為 0.40 美元，雖然與 2021 年同季度相比大幅增長，但與第三季度相比大致持平。正如我們在上次財報電話會議中所強調的那樣，大部分銷售額是根據舊合同以較低的固定價格交付給客戶的，從而產生了負面的組合影響。對於 2022 年全年，我們報告的收入為 8.13 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.67 億美元，調整後每股攤薄收益為 1.40 美元，這些都是公司的記錄。

Revenue was up 93% versus the prior year. Higher average realized prices across all region products more than offset slightly lower volumes sold versus 2021. The volume differential was primarily driven by lower lithium chloride sales as well as the building of inventory to support the start-up of our new carbonate and hydroxide production units in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA which came in at the upper end of our guidance range was over 5x higher year-over-year. Higher average realized prices easily offset an increase in operating costs. While pricing was higher across all full suite of lithium products, the improvements were most notable in the uncontracted portion of our lithium hydroxide and carbonate volumes. The pricing benefit was also notable in our butyllithium and high-purity metal businesses, where we successfully shifted from annual to monthly price setting arrangements with most of our customers.

收入比上一年增長了 93%。與 2021 年相比，所有地區產品的平均實現價格較高，足以抵消銷量略有下降的影響。銷量差異主要是由於氯化鋰銷量下降以及為支持我們新的碳酸鹽和氫氧化物生產裝置的啟動而建立庫存造成的2023 年。調整後的 EBITDA 處於我們指導範圍的上限，同比增長超過 5 倍。較高的平均實現價格很容易抵消運營成本的增加。雖然所有全套鋰產品的定價都更高，但我們的氫氧化鋰和碳酸鋰量的未簽約部分的改進最為顯著。我們的丁基鋰和高純度金屬業務的定價優勢也很明顯，我們成功地將與大多數客戶的年度定價安排轉變為每月定價安排。

Our butyllithium business grew to roughly 1/3 of total revenue for the year. We expect it will continue to be an important and profitable business for the company. Livent's total capital spend in 2022 was $327 million, in line with our guidance. This was a step-up from 2021, reflecting our progress on multiple expansion projects. Our balance sheet and overall liquidity remains very strong. We ended 2022 with $189 million in cash and no draw on our $500 million revolving credit facility. This revolver was upsized by $100 million during 2022 and renewed for an additional 5 years to 2027. The combination of our current cash position, our ability to draw on the credit facility and a strong outlook for cash generation from higher volumes and sustained pricing give us continued confidence in our ability to internally fund our capacity expansions.

我們的丁基鋰業務增長到當年總收入的大約 1/3。我們預計它將繼續成為公司重要且有利可圖的業務。 Livent 2022 年的總資本支出為 3.27 億美元，符合我們的指引。這是 2021 年的進步，反映了我們在多個擴展項目上的進展。我們的資產負債表和整體流動性仍然非常強勁。到 2022 年底，我們擁有 1.89 億美元的現金，並且沒有提取 5 億美元的循環信貸額度。這支左輪手槍在 2022 年增加了 1 億美元，並再延長 5 年至 2027 年。結合我們目前的現金狀況、我們利用信貸額度的能力以及從更高的交易量和持續的定價中產生現金的強勁前景，我們繼續對我們為產能擴張提供內部資金的能力充滿信心。

Let me now comment on our financial guidance for 2023 on Slide 5. Livent expects another substantial improvement in financial performance, driving record results in 2023. For the full year, Livent's projects revenue to be in the range of $1 billion to $1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be $510 million to $580 million. This represents growth of roughly 30% and 50%, respectively, at the midpoint versus 2022. Our guidance is based on higher volumes sold and a higher average realized pricing across our portfolio of lithium products, partially offset by higher anticipated costs.

現在讓我在幻燈片 5 上評論我們 2023 年的財務指導。Livent 預計財務業績將再次大幅改善，在 2023 年創下歷史新高。全年，Livent 的項目收入將在 10 億至 11 億美元之間，調整後EBITDA 為 5.1 億至 5.8 億美元。與 2022 年相比，這分別代表中點增長約 30% 和 50%。我們的指導基於更高的銷量和更高的鋰產品組合平均實現價格，部分被更高的預期成本所抵消。

We further highlight some of the key drivers on Slide 6. Livent expects to sell 20% higher sales volumes or roughly 4,000 metric tons on an LCE basis versus 2022. This increase will largely be in the form of lithium hydroxide sales and is driven by our initial phases of expansion coming online. Our first 10,000 metric ton expansion of lithium carbonate in Argentina is substantially complete and is in the process of starting up. We expect commercial volumes from this expansion to be available for sale in the second half of 2023.

我們在幻燈片 6 中進一步強調了一些關鍵驅動因素。Livent 預計銷量將比 2022 年高出 20%，即 LCE 基礎上的約 4,000 公噸。這一增長將主要以氫氧化鋰銷售的形式出現，並由我們的驅動擴張的初始階段即將上線。我們在阿根廷的第一個 10,000 公噸碳酸鋰擴建項目已基本完成，正在啟動中。我們預計此次擴建的商業量將在 2023 年下半年上市銷售。

Incremental production this year will largely see our new 5,000 metric ton lithium hydroxide line in Bessemer City, North Carolina, which was completed at the end of last year. With this new unit, Livent remains the largest producer of lithium hydroxide in the United States with 15,000 metric tons of domestic capacity, one of the few producing lithium hydroxide companies outside of China today. We are also expecting meaningful pricing improvement in 2023 with higher average realized prices across our portfolio of lithium products. We will go into more detail shortly on specific components related to our lithium products and our customers. However, it is important to emphasize that our guidance does not rely on an increase in the lithium market price from current levels. As we have said in the past, given the nature of Livent's contracts, we expect a continued increase in our average realized price in 2023 under a wide range of market scenarios.

今年的增量生產主要是我們在北卡羅來納州貝塞默市新建的 5,000 公噸氫氧化鋰生產線，該生產線已於去年年底完工。有了這個新裝置，Livent 仍然是美國最大的氫氧化鋰生產商，國內產能為 15,000 公噸，是當今中國境外為數不多的生產氫氧化鋰的公司之一。我們還預計 2023 年價格將出現顯著改善，我們的鋰產品組合的平均實現價格將更高。我們將在短期內更詳細地介紹與我們的鋰產品和客戶相關的特定組件。然而，需要強調的是，我們的指引並不依賴於鋰市場價格從當前水平上漲。正如我們過去所說，鑑於 Livent 合同的性質，我們預計在廣泛的市場情景下，我們的平均實現價格將在 2023 年繼續上漲。

At the same time, we expect some higher costs in 2023, although not enough to offset further anticipated margin improvement. The biggest drivers of higher costs are royalty payments in Argentina, the cost incurred in commission of new production units and broad inflationary pressures. For royalties, the increase is due to a higher average expected lithium reference price on which royalties are based in 2023 versus the prior year. And to be clear, the underlying percentage paid for our royalties calculation has not changed and the reference price is based on an average export price out of Argentina and Chile.

與此同時，我們預計 2023 年的成本會有所上升，但不足以抵消預期利潤率的進一步提高。成本上升的最大驅動因素是阿根廷的特許權使用費、新生產單位的委託成本以及廣泛的通脹壓力。對於特許權使用費，增加的原因是與上一年相比，2023 年特許權使用費所基於的平均預期鋰參考價格更高。需要明確的是，為我們的特許權使用費計算支付的基本百分比沒有改變，參考價格是基於阿根廷和智利的平均出口價格。

For start-up costs, there are inefficiencies that come with initially operating new plants at lower production rates, and we would expect this impact to be temporary in nature. We also continue to see higher costs for raw materials, such as soda ash, for energy and for labor, although not in the same magnitude as experienced in 2022.

對於啟動成本，最初以較低的生產率運營新工廠會導致效率低下，我們預計這種影響本質上是暫時的。我們還繼續看到原材料（如純鹼）、能源和勞動力的成本上漲，儘管幅度與 2022 年不同。

I want to conclude by providing 2023 guidance range for other financial metrics. Livent expects depreciation and amortization to be in the range of $46 million to $52 million. This is a step-up from 2022 and is due to the start of depreciating capital investment related to the new production as we bring it online. We expect Livent's adjusted tax rate to be 16% to 19%. This reflects a continued improvement as a result of our evolving business mix and adjustment to internal corporate structure sees being spun off as a stand-alone public company.

最後，我想為其他財務指標提供 2023 年的指導範圍。 Livent 預計折舊和攤銷將在 4600 萬至 5200 萬美元之間。這是從 2022 年開始的一個升級，是因為隨著我們將其上線，與新生產相關的資本投資開始貶值。我們預計 Livent 的調整後稅率為 16% 至 19%。這反映了由於我們不斷發展的業務組合和對內部公司結構的調整而被剝離為一家獨立的上市公司，從而取得了持續的改善。

Livent's 2023 capital expenditures are anticipated to be $325 million to $375 million, slightly higher than 2022, and will be supported by an adjusted cash from operations, projecting the range of $360 million to $440 million.

Livent 2023 年的資本支出預計為 3.25 億美元至 3.75 億美元，略高於 2022 年，並將由調整後的運營現金支持，預計範圍為 3.6 億美元至 4.4 億美元。

I will now turn the call back to Paul to provide some additional context for our '23 guidance and how we position ourselves for the year ahead.

我現在將把電話轉回給保羅，為我們的 23 年指導以及我們如何為來年定位自己提供一些額外的背景信息。

Thanks, Gilberto. On Slide 7, we want to provide a framework for how to think about Livent's expectations for average realized prices in 2023. As mentioned earlier, we are expecting roughly 4,000 metric tons in LCEs of additional sales in 2023, most of which will be in the form of lithium hydroxide. You can see that roughly 70% of our volumes have fixed pricing terms that have already been set for 2023. There are a number of customers that fall into this group, some of which are still being supported under legacy contracts and others that were agreed to around the end of 2022 with pricing more reflective of current market conditions.

謝謝，吉爾伯托。在幻燈片 7 上，我們想提供一個框架來思考 Livent 對 2023 年平均實現價格的預期。如前所述，我們預計 2023 年 LCE 的額外銷售額約為 4,000 公噸，其中大部分將在氫氧化鋰的形式。您可以看到，我們大約 70% 的交易量具有固定定價條款，這些條款已為 2023 年設定。有許多客戶屬於這一組，其中一些客戶仍在舊合同下得到支持，而其他客戶則同意大約在 2022 年底，定價更能反映當前的市場狀況。

Because we've agreed to a set of fixed price for each customer for all of 2023, and these are take-or-pay commitments. We have very high confidence regarding the roughly 40% average expected price increase across these volumes. This allows us to strike a balance between locking in attractive prices for 2023 and retaining upside as we move through the year. For clarity, we have only 1 fixed volume contract in place today where pricing is already set for 2024 with the rest of our volumes subject to either a price escalation or market-based price structures.

因為我們已經同意在 2023 年全年為每個客戶制定一套固定價格，這些都是照付不議的承諾。我們對這些數量的平均預期價格上漲約 40% 充滿信心。這使我們能夠在鎖定 2023 年有吸引力的價格和在我們度過這一年時保持上行空間之間取得平衡。為清楚起見，我們今天只有 1 份固定數量合同，其中定價已經設定為 2024 年，我們的其餘數量將受到價格上漲或基於市場的價格結構的影響。

Annual fixed price has continued to be preferred by a subset of our customers looking for cost predictability, particularly to manage their own budgeting processes. We approach each 1 independently and are willing to engage with our strategic customers to balance both of our needs in these volatile and unpredictable price environments. Therefore, if market prices continue to remain above our average realized price, we would expect there to be further pricing upside on these volumes next year.

我們的一部分尋求成本可預測性的客戶繼續首選年度固定價格，特別是管理他們自己的預算流程。我們獨立地接觸每一個人，並願意與我們的戰略客戶合作，以平衡我們在這些多變且不可預測的價格環境中的需求。因此，如果市場價格繼續高於我們的平均實現價格，我們預計明年這些數量的價格將進一步上漲。

The smaller remaining hydroxide and carbonate volumes, roughly 20% of our expected LCEs for sale in 2023 under a few different variable pricing structures with adjustments typically made on a monthly basis. It is in the variable pricing segment where we maintain the greatest exposure to market prices. We are expecting average realized prices for these volumes to be slightly up in 2023, largely due to the much lower price levels we saw in Q1 last year, which dragged down our 2022 average realized price.

在幾種不同的可變定價結構下，剩餘的氫氧化物和碳酸鹽數量較少，大約占我們預計 2023 年出售的 LCE 的 20%，通常每月進行調整。在可變定價部分，我們對市場價格的敞口最大。我們預計這些數量的平均實現價格將在 2023 年略有上漲，這主要是由於我們在去年第一季度看到的價格水平低得多，這拖累了我們 2022 年的平均實現價格。

Given this, and the fact that in Q4, market-based pricing was a lower portion of our overall sales than prior quarters means that this group could still achieve higher average realized prices year-over-year for Livent even if market prices pull back from current levels.

鑑於此，以及在第 4 季度，基於市場的定價在我們整體銷售額中所佔的比例低於前幾個季度，這意味著即使市場價格從當前水平。

Additionally, while there's a lot of attention paid to movement in the China spot market, this is not reflective of the entire market. As you can see, when you study various export and import statistics for countries such as Chile, Argentina, Japan and Korea.

此外，雖然人們非常關注中國現貨市場的走勢，但這並不能反映整個市場。如您所見，當您研究智利、阿根廷、日本和韓國等國家/地區的各種進出口統計數據時。

Lastly, we will have variable pricing in our other specialty segment, which is largely comprised of our butyllithium and high-purity metal business. For 2023, it represents about 3,000 metric tons of our expected LCEs but as much as 30% of our total revenues. We expect average realized pricing to be roughly flat in 2023 year-over-year for this group. And while these volumes are also exposed to monthly changes in pricing, it is largely structured as a pass-through of changes in lithium metal input cost, meaning the operating margin is more stable than changes in revenue might suggest.

最後，我們將在其他專業領域採用可變定價，主要由我們的丁基鋰和高純度金屬業務組成。到 2023 年，它代表了我們預期的 LCE 約 3,000 公噸，但占我們總收入的 30%。我們預計該群體的平均實現價格在 2023 年同比大致持平。雖然這些數量也受到每月定價變化的影響，但它在很大程度上被結構化為鋰金屬投入成本變化的傳遞，這意味著營業利潤率比收入變化可能表明的更穩定。

On Slide 8, I want to highlight what you can expect from Livent in 2023. First, continued strong financial performance following a record year in '22, 2023 will be the first of an upcoming sequence of years that Livent will see the benefit of incremental production volumes as a result of multiple years of expansion investment. As Gilberto mentioned, we're expecting a 50% increase in adjusted EBITDA in 2023 at the midpoint of our guidance at a time where a lot of investor focus is on the potential implications of a near-term pullback in China spot prices. Increased production for Livent will continue in 2024 and the years to follow as we progress on our various expansion plans and will be a significant driver of future financial growth. This will result in meaningfully higher cash flow generation for the company that is much more balanced around a wider range of pricing assumptions.

在幻燈片 8 上，我想強調您對 Livent 在 2023 年的期望。首先，繼 22 年創紀錄的一年之後，財務業績持續強勁，2023 年將是 Livent 將在接下來的幾年中看到增量收益的第一年由於多年的擴張投資而產生的產量。正如 Gilberto 所提到的，我們預計 2023 年調整後的 EBITDA 將在我們指引的中點增長 50%，而此時許多投資者關注的是中國現貨價格近期回落的潛在影響。隨著我們各項擴張計劃的進展，Livent 的產量將在 2024 年和未來幾年繼續增加，並將成為未來財務增長的重要驅動力。這將為公司帶來顯著更高的現金流產生，從而使公司在更廣泛的定價假設範圍內更加平衡。

Second, we remain on schedule to deliver all of our announced capacity expansions. We expect to complete our second 10,000 metric tone expansion of lithium carbonate in Argentina by the end of 2023, with first production from this expansion expected in early 2024. So as at year-end 2023, we expect nameplate lithium carbonate capacity to be double out of 2022, approaching 40,000 metric tons.

其次，我們仍按計劃交付所有已宣布的產能擴張。我們預計到 2023 年底將在阿根廷完成第二次 10,000 公噸碳酸鋰擴建，預計該擴建項目將於 2024 年初投產。因此，到 2023 年底，我們預計銘牌碳酸鋰產能將翻一番到 2022 年，接近 40,000 公噸。

Outside of Argentina, construction began in a 15,000 metric ton lithium hydroxide facility at a new location in the province of Zhejiang, China. First, commercial volumes from this [facility] are expected in 2024 and it will increase our total global lithium hydroxide capacity to 45,000 metric tons. Beyond 2024, Livent continues to progress engineering and evaluation work on additional planned carbonate expansion phases in Argentina as well as additional hydroxide expansions that include lower-grade lithium recycling capabilities. We expect to share further details on all of these fronts later this year.

在阿根廷以外，一座 15,000 公噸氫氧化鋰工廠在中國浙江省的一個新地點開工建設。首先，該 [設施] 的商業產量預計將在 2024 年實現，這將使我們的全球氫氧化鋰總產能增加到 45,000 公噸。到 2024 年以後，Livent 將繼續推進工程和評估工作，以在阿根廷進行更多計劃中的碳酸鹽擴張階段，以及包括低品位鋰回收能力在內的其他氫氧化物擴張。我們希望在今年晚些時候分享所有這些方面的更多細節。

Third, Livent plans to release a resources and reserves report at the end of this month with our 10-K filing. This will be Livent's first published resources and reserves report, but it is supported by decades of historical operating data. The report will give investors, stakeholders and other interested parties an ability to evaluate the size, scale and cost structure of our operations at Salar del Hombre Muerto as well as how we can support our expansion plans in a sustainable manner.

第三，Livent 計劃在本月底與我們的 10-K 文件一起發布資源和儲量報告。這將是 Livent 首次發布資源和儲量報告，但它有數十年曆史運營數據的支持。該報告將使投資者、利益相關者和其他利益相關方能夠評估我們在 Salar del Hombre Muerto 的運營規模、規模和成本結構，以及我們如何以可持續的方式支持我們的擴張計劃。

Finally, we want to provide an update on Nemaska Lithium, a fully integrated lithium hydroxide project located in Québec, Canada in which Livent is a 50% owner.

最後，我們想提供有關 Nemaska Lithium 的最新信息，這是一個完全集成的氫氧化鋰項目，位於加拿大魁北克，Livent 擁有該項目 50% 的股份。

Turning to Slide 9. We provided a time line with key milestones leading to commercial production at Nemaska Lithium. The project is reaching the conclusion of its detailed engineering phase, and you can expect a number of key updates in the first half of this year. A feasibility study is being finalized and is expected to be published in the coming months. It will demonstrate why Livent remains as committed as ever to helping bring the project into production. And why Nemaska Lithium will be critical to a future North American supply chain. Shortly thereafter, project construction is expected to formally begin, although the team has already begun ordering important long-lead equipment and is commencing on-site preparations as we speak.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們提供了一個時間表，其中包含導致 Nemaska Lithium 商業化生產的關鍵里程碑。該項目的詳細工程階段即將結束，您可以期待今年上半年的一些重要更新。一項可行性研究正在定稿中，預計將在未來幾個月內公佈。它將展示為什麼 Livent 一如既往地致力於幫助將該項目投入生產。以及為什麼 Nemaska Lithium 對未來的北美供應鏈至關重要。此後不久，項目建設有望正式開始，儘管團隊已經開始訂購重要的長周期設備，並在我們說話時開始現場準備。

As part of the construction decision, Nemaska Lithium will outline preliminary sources of financing, which are expected to be comprised of a number of attractive options. The structure will likely include a combination of third-party debt financing, including potential low-cost government funding, prepayments from customers and funding from Nemaska Lithium's 2 current shareholders, Livent and Investissement Quebec. Livent continues to provide technical and commercial expertise to Nemaska Lithium and has been appointed to engage in sales and marketing efforts on its behalf. We expect Nemaska Lithium to announce its first customer commitments in the first half of 2023, including any project funding contributions from these customers.

作為建設決策的一部分，Nemaska Lithium 將概述初步的融資來源，預計這些來源將包括一些有吸引力的選擇。該結構可能包括第三方債務融資的組合，包括潛在的低成本政府資金、來自客戶的預付款以及來自 Nemaska Lithium 的 2 個當前股東 Livent 和 Investissement Quebec 的資金。 Livent 繼續為 Nemaska Lithium 提供技術和商業專業知識，並已被任命代表其從事銷售和營銷工作。我們預計 Nemaska Lithium 將在 2023 年上半年宣布其首批客戶承諾，包括來自這些客戶的任何項目資金捐助。

With respect to timing, we expect Nemaska Lithium to begin generating revenues in the first half of 2025. Initial sales are expected to be in the form of spodumene concentrate as Nemaska Lithium will look to bring the Whabouchi mine and concentrator online as quickly as feasible, which is anticipated to be before the end of 2024. These spodumene sales will be a temporary source of additional cash flow until the downstream hydroxide facility at Bécancour comes into production and Nemaska Lithium is operating as a fully integrated project. We expect first hydroxide production by 2026 on a 34,000 metric ton nameplate battery-grade hydroxide facility powered by low-cost green hydroelectric energy.

關於時間，我們預計 Nemaska Lithium 將在 2025 年上半年開始產生收入。預計初始銷售將以鋰輝石精礦的形式進行，因為 Nemaska Lithium 將尋求盡快將 Whabouchi 礦山和選礦廠上線，預計將在 2024 年底之前完成。在 Bécancour 的下游氫氧化物工廠投產並且 Nemaska Lithium 作為一個完全整合的項目運營之前，這些鋰輝石銷售將成為額外現金流的臨時來源。我們預計到 2026 年將在 34,000 公噸銘牌電池級氫氧化物設施上首次生產氫氧化物，該設施由低成本綠色水電能源提供動力。

Nemaska Lithium continues to be a highly attractive project. Its strategic location drove strong interest from potential North American and European customers who are becoming increasingly focused on localization. It is well positioned to take advantage of various government incentives like the inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. to promote domestic energy storage supply chains.

Nemaska Lithium 仍然是一個極具吸引力的項目。它的戰略位置引起了越來越關注本地化的潛在北美和歐洲客戶的濃厚興趣。它完全有能力利用各種政府激勵措施，如美國的《降低通脹法案》，以促進國內儲能供應鏈的發展。

Additionally, Nemaska Lithium has a critical first mover advantage in the region having already secured space at an industrial part being developed in Bécancour at a time when access to infrastructure and proximity to ship imports are key challenges for many development projects. I want to conclude on Slide 10 with some commentary on market conditions.

此外，Nemaska Lithium 在該地區擁有關鍵的先發優勢，它已經在 Bécancour 正在開發的工業部分獲得了空間，而此時獲得基礎設施和接近船舶進口是許多開發項目的主要挑戰。我想以對市場狀況的一些評論來結束幻燈片 10。

Before turning to 2023 expectations and some of the short-term data points many are focused on in China, we should take a step back and acknowledge that '22 was another exceptional year for lithium demand and the broader electric vehicle supply chain. For the full year 2022, global EV sales are believed to have exceeded 10 million units growing well over 50% versus 2021. Within China, EV sales are expected to have nearly doubled to roughly 6.5 million vehicles. On the battery side, total global installations across all applications were up roughly 60% year-over-year.

在轉向 2023 年的預期和許多人關注的一些短期數據點之前，我們應該退後一步，承認 22 年對於鋰需求和更廣泛的電動汽車供應鏈來說又是一個非凡的一年。據信，到 2022 年全年，全球電動汽車銷量將超過 1000 萬輛，比 2021 年增長 50% 以上。在中國，電動汽車銷量預計將增長近一倍，達到約 650 萬輛。在電池方面，所有應用的全球總安裝量同比增長約 60%。

Lithium demand remained very strong throughout 2022. It was a year when lithium prices steadily climbed higher on the back of a widening supply deficit, underscoring yet again the challenges for battery grade supply to keep up with compounding demand growth. And despite concerns of higher lithium prices potentially being demand destructive, we have not seen any evidence of this today. In fact, despite facing higher input costs, we saw encouraging performance and commentary from a number of leading EV and battery producers in '22. There's understandably a lot of focus on China today given a number of combined near-term factors including the impact of moving away from zero COVID policies, the removal of subsidies that have previously been extended for a few years running and the first decline in spot prices after an unprecedented rental levels well above what most people would consider rational.

整個 2022 年，鋰需求仍然非常強勁。這一年，鋰價格在供應缺口擴大的背景下穩步攀升，再次凸顯了電池級供應跟上複合需求增長的挑戰。儘管擔心鋰價格上漲可能會破壞需求，但我們今天還沒有看到任何證據。事實上，儘管面臨更高的投入成本，我們在 22 年看到了一些領先的電動汽車和電池生產商令人鼓舞的表現和評論。可以理解的是，考慮到一些近期因素的綜合影響，包括放棄零 COVID 政策的影響、取消之前已經延長了幾年的補貼以及現貨價格的首次下跌，今天人們對中國的關注度很高，這是可以理解的在前所未有的租金水平遠高於大多數人認為的合理水平之後。

While it will take some time to assess how things progress as we come out of this seasonally quiet period around Spring Festival, there are a few points I want to highlight. While many have referenced substantial inventory builds within the EV supply chain, this is something that we simply have not seen today, particularly upstream at the lithium consumer level. Recent data from SMM provides a clear example of this. When looking at monthly (inaudible) demand, which continues to grow as expected, versus the amount of downstream lithium carbonate inventory available, the ratio hit new lows approaching year-end 2022. This makes sense as lithium consumers look to destock throughout the year in the face of higher prices.

雖然我們需要一些時間來評估春節前後這個季節性平靜時期的進展情況，但我想強調幾點。雖然許多人提到了電動汽車供應鏈中大量庫存的增加，但這是我們今天從未見過的，尤其是在鋰消費層面的上游。來自 SMM 的最新數據提供了一個明顯的例子。當查看按預期繼續增長的月度（聽不清）需求與可用的下游碳酸鋰庫存量時，該比率在臨近 2022 年年底時創下新低。這是有道理的，因為鋰消費者希望全年去庫存面對更高的價格。

While there appears to have been some inventory increase to begin 2023, it is likely related to lower consumption levels during the Lunar holiday slowdown in China. What is clear is that continued destocking similar to last year will be very challenging given the difficulty in maintaining historically low inventory levels for an extended period of time, restocking should naturally be expected at some time. This is especially the case if demand continues to be strong, which is still very much the base case for most in the industry.

雖然從 2023 年開始庫存似乎有所增加，但這可能與中國農曆假期放緩期間的消費水平下降有關。可以明確的是，鑑於難以長期維持歷史低庫存水平，與去年類似的持續去庫存將非常具有挑戰性，自然應該預計在某個時候進行補貨。如果需求持續強勁，情況尤其如此，這仍然是大多數行業的基本情況。

Benchmark Minerals, among others, is expecting total LCE demand growth of around 40% in 2023. Some of the largest lithium companies have also taken their own demand estimates up considerably in '23 and even higher in the following years. Demand growth does not need to be linear and prices could certainly move around quite a bit in the interim, but the point remains that we don't see long-term fundamentals being meaningfully different based on any recent data points or speculation.

Benchmark Minerals 等公司預計 2023 年 LCE 總需求將增長 40% 左右。一些最大的鋰公司也在 23 年大幅上調了自己的需求預估，並在接下來的幾年裡甚至更高。需求增長不一定是線性的，在此期間價格肯定會出現相當大的波動，但重點仍然是，根據最近的任何數據點或推測，我們認為長期基本面沒有顯著差異。

Additionally, there were no indications that we're on the verge of a meaningful oversupply of lithium anytime soon, while new supply selected to come online in 2023, there have already been multiple announcements of delays and meaningful cost increases globally. Others have announced they will prioritize bringing volumes online as quickly as possible at the expense of producing qualified battery-grade material.

此外，沒有跡象表明我們很快就會處於嚴重的鋰供應過剩的邊緣，雖然新供應選擇在 2023 年上線，但全球已經有多個延遲和顯著成本增加的公告。其他人則宣布，他們將以生產合格的電池級材料為代價，優先考慮盡快實現量產。

Finally, there is not enough discussion about structural increases in the cost of both building and operating lithium assets. These higher costs are only being amplified as the desire for localized supply chains grow, and this isn't a trend that we expect to reverse anytime soon. As the cost curve continues to push upward, it will become clear that lithium prices need to remain higher for longer and the reinvestment economics in our industry have fundamentally reset.

最後，關於建設和運營鋰資產成本的結構性增加的討論還不夠。隨著對本地化供應鏈的需求增長，這些更高的成本只會被放大，而且我們預計這種趨勢不會很快逆轉。隨著成本曲線繼續上行，鋰價需要在更長時間內保持較高水平，我們行業的再投資經濟已經從根本上重新設定。

When putting all this together, it's hard to envision a probable scenario where the lithium market does not remain structurally tied to varying degrees over the coming years. Now before concluding, I want to thank our Livent employees and partners around the world for a great year in 2022. They continue to work tirelessly to meet our expansion milestones in 2023. These are all big undertakings, and they're doing all of this work while staying focused on advancing Livent's core operating priorities of safety, quality and reliability, making positive contributions to our communities, working closely with customers to advance innovation and sustainability and providing a great work experience for all. Together, I'm confident that we'll make 2023 a landmark year for Livent and our customers.

將所有這些放在一起，很難想像未來幾年鋰市場不會在結構上保持不同程度聯繫的可能情景。在結束之前，我要感謝我們在世界各地的 Livent 員工和合作夥伴，他們在 2022 年度過了美好的一年。他們繼續孜孜不倦地工作，以實現我們在 2023 年的擴張里程碑。這些都是偉大的事業，他們正在做這一切工作的同時繼續專注於推進 Livent 的安全、質量和可靠性的核心運營重點，為我們的社區做出積極貢獻，與客戶密切合作以推進創新和可持續發展，並為所有人提供良好的工作體驗。我相信，我們將使 2023 年成為 Livent 和我們客戶具有里程碑意義的一年。

I will now turn the call back to Dan for questions.

我現在將電話轉回給 Dan 提問。

Thank you, Paul. Bo, you may now begin the Q&A session.

謝謝你，保羅。 Bo，你現在可以開始問答環節了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And we'll take our first question this afternoon from Steve Richardson of Evercore ISI.

今天下午，我們將從 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Richardson 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

Paul, first question on Nemaska. And I think you hit on it, talking about the structurally higher costs in the industry, but we've seen some updates from some other comparable integrated projects in North America of late. And I was wondering, I don't want to front-run the PFS here, but if you could just talk about what you're seeing in terms of costs and trends? And then more importantly, like why would this project be advantageously positioned relative to some others in the North America context?

保羅，關於 Nemaska 的第一個問題。而且我認為你談到了這個行業的結構性成本較高，但我們最近看到了北美其他一些類似綜合項目的一些更新。我想知道，我不想在這裡預先運行 PFS，但是你能否談談你在成本和趨勢方面看到的情況？然後更重要的是，為什麼這個項目相對於北美其他一些項目處於有利位置？

Yes, it's a difficult question to answer in a way that I think is going to fully satisfy you, but let me sort of make a few observations. I think the first thing to really understand is that every project is different, and that's especially the case as this industry develops. There's a big difference between, for example, expanding an established brine project and building a brand new brine project in South America. One has a lot of infrastructure, 1 doesn't, so the predictability of cost is different for new projects than it is for existing projects that are being expanded. It's also very different on a technology-by-technology basis. It's very different using a conventional mining and a conventional conversion process relative to maybe some of the nonconventional sources of lithium that we have out there that our people are running projects on.

是的，這是一個很難回答的問題，我認為會完全讓你滿意，但讓我做一些觀察。我認為首先要真正了解的是每個項目都是不同的，尤其是隨著這個行業的發展。例如，在南美洲擴建已建立的鹽水項目與建設全新的鹽水項目之間存在很大差異。一個有很多基礎設施，一個沒有，因此新項目的成本可預測性與正在擴展的現有項目的成本可預測性不同。在逐個技術的基礎上，它也非常不同。相對於我們的員工正在開展項目的一些非傳統鋰資源，使用傳統採礦和傳統轉化過程是非常不同的。

And so I think this degree of predictability and certainty, I think people have maybe overestimated how much visibility we have on projects and nobody has really taken on in any scale before. We definitely see meaningful changes driven by a few factors for all projects. They take longer, first and foremost. Secondly, there's a lot of competition for labor, qualified labor is scarce and in certain parts of the world, we've seen competition from non-lithium projects, oil and gas projects, for example, which are ramping back up in certain parts of the world.

所以我認為這種程度的可預測性和確定性，我認為人們可能高估了我們在項目上的知名度，之前沒有人真正採取過任何規模。對於所有項目，我們肯定會看到由幾個因素驅動的有意義的變化。首先，他們需要更長的時間。其次，勞動力競爭激烈，合格勞動力稀缺，在世界某些地區，我們已經看到來自非鋰項目、石油和天然氣項目的競爭，例如，這些項目在某些地區正在回升世界。

And we see competition for basically the fab yards where some of the major long-lead items are being made. And so you either wait longer, which has implications for cost so you have to pay more for these -- some of these specific items. And you're also seeing some issues with scaling. People are trying to go bigger, quicker as we said, and I think it's not always linear and there aren't always cost savings in the initial expansionary phase.

我們看到基本上是在製造一些主要的長周期產品的工廠場地的競爭。所以你要么等待更長時間，這對成本有影響，所以你必須為這些——其中一些特定項目支付更多費用。而且您還會看到一些縮放問題。正如我們所說，人們正試圖變得更大、更快，我認為它並不總是線性的，而且在最初的擴張階段並不總是能節省成本。

I think there's no doubt that when you look at predictable cost curves, predictable capital expenditure curves, a project like Nemaska, which is frankly not earth breaking or groundbreaking in any new technology, any new processes, it is in a part of the world that is, frankly, a little bit more expensive to build in than some others. But that's largely offset by the fact that it will have a low operate cost than many others given its low-cost energy, it's proximity to key markets. It is clearly advantageous with regard to IRA qualified material and will be advantageous.

我認為毫無疑問，當您查看可預測的成本曲線、可預測的資本支出曲線時，像 Nemaska 這樣的項目，坦率地說，它在任何新技術、任何新流程中都不是突破性的或開創性的，它在世界的某個地方坦率地說，建造起來比其他一些要貴一點。但這在很大程度上被以下事實所抵消：考慮到它的低成本能源，它的運營成本將低於許多其他公司，它靠近主要市場。就 IRA 合格材料而言，這顯然是有利的，而且將是有利的。

And it's not easy to see many other projects in North America with the same certainty. So the industry needs a whole wide range of projects. So this is not resource competition. This is not me saying Nemaska Lithium is a far better project than project X or project Y and, therefore, project X or Y shouldn't be developed. They're all going to be. They don't need to be developed to meet demand levels. But I think it's pretty important that you look at each project, really in great detail in its own right when you sort of form the question as to how credible some of the forecast of capital expenditure and how credible some of the future operating costs are.

以同樣的確定性在北美看到許多其他項目並不容易。因此，該行業需要範圍廣泛的項目。所以這不是資源競爭。這並不是說 Nemaska Lithium 是一個比項目 X 或項目 Y 好得多的項目，因此不應開發項目 X 或 Y。他們都會。不需要開發它們來滿足需求水平。但我認為，當你形成一個問題，即某些資本支出預測的可信度以及某些未來運營成本的可信度時，仔細研究每個項目非常重要。

Appreciate the color. We look forward to the update later in the year. Just perhaps a quick follow-up, just could you help us bridge the 4kt LCE growth this year implied by guidance versus what was talked about last quarter in terms of, I believe, 6. I think they're probably not the same basis and we're talking -- just wondering if you could just confirm, has any schedule changed in Argentina? Or is this inventory or am I counting LCEs wrong?

欣賞顏色。我們期待今年晚些時候的更新。也許只是一個快速的跟進，你能否幫助我們彌合指導所暗示的今年 4kt LCE 增長與上一季度所討論的，我相信，6。我認為它們可能不是相同的基礎和我們正在談論——只是想知道您是否可以確認一下，阿根廷的日程安排有變化嗎？還是這個庫存或者我計算的 LCE 有誤？

No, no. It is pretty straightforward. We're a few months late in Argentina, right. In the grand scheme of things, 2 or 3 months doesn't make a big difference. But in a calendar year, when you're adding 10,000 tons, obviously, it means we're short 1,000 tons or 2,000 tons compared to what we said before. The reason is really linked to your first question. There were challenges to every single project.

不，不。這非常簡單。我們在阿根廷晚了幾個月，對吧。在宏偉的計劃中，2 或 3 個月不會有太大的不同。但在一個日曆年中，當你增加 10,000 噸時，顯然，這意味著與我們之前所說的相比，我們少了 1,000 噸或 2,000 噸。原因確實與您的第一個問題有關。每個項目都面臨挑戰。

And I think we've seen some of the other projects in Argentina and similar phases made similar comments. It's difficult to get that final 5% done. There's a lot of local content requirements to the level of a local labor requirements in there as well. And it doesn't take much if you have a few pieces of piping or a few electrical connects, it's relatively basic stuff that are late arriving that are held to put the port that open some customers' disputes. So they're really sort of the traffic blocking and tackling that's needed at the very end of a project that slowed us down in the first part of the year, nothing major. It's really just my engineers will the same. It's posing the last few pieces of pipe and making the last few connectors in place, but we are a couple of months late relative to what we had hoped.

我想我們已經看到阿根廷的其他一些項目和類似的階段發表了類似的評論。很難完成最後的 5%。那裡也有很多當地含量要求達到當地勞動力要求的水平。如果你有幾條管道或一些電氣連接，這並不需要太多，它是相對基本的遲到的東西，用於放置打開一些客戶糾紛的端口。因此，它們實際上是在項目結束時需要的流量阻塞和解決，這在今年上半年使我們放慢了速度，沒什麼大不了的。這真的只是我的工程師會的。它正在擺好最後幾根管子並製作最後幾個連接器，但相對於我們所希望的，我們晚了幾個月。

We go next now to Chris Kapsch at Loop Capital Markets.

接下來我們請到 Loop Capital Markets 的 Chris Kapsch。

So 1 follow-up on that question about the couple of months delay 4 versus 6. Does that sort of just challenges it cascade into the next expansion that was slated for late calendar '23 into '24? So I'm just wondering if you're going to get, I guess, extra by pushing out the volumes this year you're going to get extra volume incremental next year. But just wondering if the delay if you're seeing that cascade into your further expansions?

因此，關於幾個月延遲 4 對 6 的問題的 1 個後續行動是否只是挑戰它級聯到下一個擴展中，該擴展定於 23 年底到 24 年？所以我只是想知道，我猜你是否會通過推出今年的銷量來獲得額外的收益，明年你是否會獲得額外的銷量增量。但是只是想知道延遲是否會影響您的進一步擴張？

No, they're completely separate and distinct work streams completely for this very reason, they've run a separate and independent parallel processes. I actually would hope that we learn from these last mile challenges that we have and get ahead of them. I think the team understand better now what is -- this is the first time we've been through the 5% of a project. We know we have another one coming at the back end of this year. So I would expect that the learnings from this will give us even more certainty of delivering that second phase on time.

不，正是出於這個原因，它們是完全獨立且截然不同的工作流，它們運行著獨立且獨立的並行流程。我實際上希望我們能從我們所面臨的最後一英里挑戰中吸取教訓，並超越它們。我認為團隊現在更好地理解了——這是我們第一次完成項目的 5%。我們知道我們將在今年年底推出另一款產品。因此，我希望從中吸取教訓，讓我們更有把握按時交付第二階段。

Got it. And then thank you for the Page 7, which sort of frames the fixed versus variable versus butyl. That's helpful. A question on that would be just on the portion of hydroxide and carbonate fixed price is well fixed right now and you see that up, the realized pricing up 40%. Is it fair to say that those -- some of those customers, there's still ongoing contract negotiations, they become perpetual, those conversations? Or are those fixed -- absolutely fixed for calendar '23?

知道了。然後感謝您提供的第 7 頁，它對固定、可變和丁基進行了排序。這很有幫助。一個關於氫氧化物和碳酸鹽固定價格的問題現在已經很好地固定了，你看到了，實際價格上漲了 40%。可以公平地說那些 - 其中一些客戶仍在進行合同談判，他們變得永久，那些對話？或者那些是固定的——對於 23 年的日曆來說是絕對固定的？

Yes. No, they are -- it's a mix, honestly, it's without getting too far into the details. The -- none of them are really negotiated still in 2023. We are 95% plus of those numbers with regard to 2023. But they really make up, I think it's probably fair to say 3 different types of pricing structures. There's some that were agreed in the past quarters rolled through this year. There are some prices in there that are new prices that were fixed for 2023, but we'll either be rediscussed at the end of the year or we've already agreed a step-up for 2024 or they'll move to market-based pricing in 2024. So they'll migrate at that point or they are sort of market-based prices that have ceilings in them, and we're already over the ceiling. So the pricing is bouncing a ceiling in the agreement. So they're technically market-based, but we're pretty confident the market price is going to be above the ceiling, so they'll stay up there.

是的。不，他們是——老實說，這是一種混合，沒有深入細節。他們都沒有真正在 2023 年進行談判。關於 2023 年，我們已經超過了這些數字的 95%。但它們確實構成了，我認為說 3 種不同類型的定價結構可能是公平的。在過去的幾個季度中達成了一些共識，並延續到今年。那裡有一些價格是 2023 年固定的新價格，但我們要么在年底重新討論，要么我們已經同意在 2024 年提高價格，或者他們將轉向基於市場的價格2024 年定價。所以他們會在那個時候遷移，或者他們是一種基於市場的價格，有上限，我們已經超過了上限。因此，定價在協議中達到了上限。所以它們在技術上是基於市場的，但我們非常有信心市場價格會高於上限，所以它們會保持在那裡。

We only have -- look, every customer we have, every one of them today has either moved to market-based pricing or has made a commitment to move to market-based pricing in the next year or 2. We have, frankly, 1 customer that has not made that commitment. They are still buying volumes from us outside the contract on market-based structure. So they sort of implicitly agreed it and accept that this is where the world is going to. So we'll see this transition continue as we get late through '23 into '24. By the time we get into '25, '26, certainly by '25, I don't expect to see really any of our volumes not being linked to market prices by that point.

我們只有——看，我們擁有的每一位客戶，他們中的每一位今天要么轉向基於市場的定價，要么承諾在明年或 2 年內轉向基於市場的定價。坦率地說，我們有 1未做出該承諾的客戶。他們仍在基於市場結構的合同之外從我們這裡購買大量產品。所以他們有點含蓄地同意並接受這就是世界的發展方向。因此，隨著我們從 23 世紀末進入 24 世紀，我們將看到這種轉變繼續下去。到我們進入 25 年、26 年，當然是 25 年時，我不希望看到我們的任何交易量到那時都不會與市場價格掛鉤。

We go next now to Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners.

下面請 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy 發言。

Paul, I appreciate your updated views on prospects for growth in China in light of the challenges that you mentioned in your prepared remarks. In other words, COVID transition lack of subsidy renewal and the spot dynamics? And then I guess related to that, on Slide 10, I appreciate this inventory chart. Just as a clarification, is that meant to include producer inventory or inventory all the way through the chain? I certainly welcome any thoughts on your end as to those levels downstream.

保羅，鑑於你在準備好的發言中提到的挑戰，我感謝你對中國增長前景的最新看法。換句話說，COVID過渡缺乏補貼更新和現貨動態？然後我想與此相關，在幻燈片 10 上，我很欣賞這張庫存圖表。澄清一下，這是否意味著包括生產商庫存或整個供應鏈的庫存？我當然歡迎您對下游的那些級別有任何想法。

Yes. Let me answer that one first because it's easier. That is lithium inventory held at either a consumer of lithium or cathode producer or -- probably a cathode producers and that the lithium producers themselves. So it's a lithium inventory. It's not designed to speak to, obviously, lithium in the form of cathodes. It's just pure basic lithium carbonate held either at a lithium producer or at the customer themselves. And that's how we understand the data from SMM.

是的。讓我先回答那個，因為它更容易。這是鋰的消費者或陰極生產商或 - 可能是陰極生產商和鋰生產商本身持有的鋰庫存。所以這是一個鋰庫存。顯然，它並不是為了與陰極形式的鋰對話而設計的。它只是鋰生產商或客戶自己持有的純鹼式碳酸鋰。這就是我們了解 SMM 數據的方式。

And in terms of growth in China, first of all, we've not yet. But hopefully, we won't see a post Sprint Festival COVID revamped. So we don't see a lot of implications today, at least from COVID in the market. I think in terms of removal of subsidies, I mean, this is a market that -- I think it's kind of reached exit velocity, frankly, when you're doubling your total number of vehicles in a year, when sales are at this level when there are, frankly, fewer and fewer non-EV alternatives in China, we don't really see from EV vehicles sold in China a massive impact to demand from the removal of substance. There will be some, but this is a market that continues to grow anywhere anyway. Perhaps more importantly in China, you have to understand, most of the lithium today, as you know, battery applications is, in fact, going into China anyway, where the processing to cathode if it leaves the country again afterwards.

就中國的增長而言，首先，我們還沒有。但希望我們不會看到 Sprint Festival COVID 後的更新。因此，我們今天看不到太多影響，至少從市場上的 COVID 來看是這樣。我認為就取消補貼而言，我的意思是，這是一個市場 - 我認為它已經達到退出速度，坦率地說，當你在一年內將汽車總數翻一番，當銷量達到這個水平時坦率地說，當中國的非電動汽車替代品越來越少時，我們並沒有真正從中國銷售的電動汽車中看到去除物質對需求產生巨大影響。會有一些，但這是一個無論如何都會繼續增長的市場。也許在中國更重要的是，你必須了解，正如你所知，今天的大部分鋰電池應用實際上無論如何都會進入中國，如果它之後再次離開該國，則在那裡進行陰極加工。

So I think China itself is going to continue to be a source of growth. Just a final point for you and a data point that maybe is lost for a lot of people. Today, about 40% or maybe a little bit more of the demand is actually not by EVs, so we look at subsidies for EVs, et cetera. Stationary storage and a whole bunch of other applications are not EV related.

所以我認為中國本身將繼續成為增長的源泉。這只是您的最後一點，也是很多人可能丟失的數據點。今天，大約 40% 或更多的需求實際上不是由電動汽車產生的，因此我們關注對電動汽車等的補貼。固定存儲和一大堆其他應用程序與電動汽車無關。

And they're actually growing quicker today, we believe, than EV applications on an installed capacity basis. When you look at total gigawatt hours of demand, we're actually seeing a larger growth in the non-EV applications and in the EV applications. And so subsidies and regulations, et cetera, while important, are not the only part of what's driving demand growth for battery materials.

我們相信，它們今天的增長實際上比基於裝機容量的 EV 應用增長得更快。當您查看總千兆瓦時的需求時，我們實際上看到了非電動汽車應用和電動汽車應用的更大增長。因此，補貼和法規等雖然重要，但並不是推動電池材料需求增長的唯一因素。

As a follow-up to a prior line of questioning. Paul, how do you see the global cost curve evolving over the next, let's say, 3 or 4 years? Where do you think fourth quartile production economics will migrate to given the need to exploit higher-cost resources moving forward?

作為先前問題的後續行動。 Paul，您如何看待全球成本曲線在未來（比方說 3 年或 4 年）內的演變？鑑於未來需要開發更高成本的資源，您認為第四個四分位數的生產經濟學將遷移到哪裡？

I think if you look at -- let's take Chinese lepidolite processes, for example, today. I mean it's not that easy to get really reliable data in there. And the same is true over some of the Chinese recycling streams that we see. What it feels like you've got a sort of a marginal price in there of the $25 to $30 a kilo. So if that remains the marginal producer in the fourth quarter, I don't see that cost falling under any circumstances, sort of structural as to the challenges of processing that particular type of ore and the energy they have and the seasonality of that business as well. It's hard to sort of assess the rest of the market to be perfectly honest. There's no doubt that if you saw a $3 per kilo cost, that's probably $5 or $6 today with higher operating cost, energy cost, third-party cost. If you saw a $7 or $8, these are all cash costs that they gave, by the way. So they don't at all include capital costs, the $7 or $8 probably dwell into double digits today.

我想如果你看看——讓我們以今天的中國鋰雲母過程為例。我的意思是要在那裡獲得真正可靠的數據並不容易。我們看到的一些中國回收流也是如此。感覺就像每公斤 25 到 30 美元的邊際價格。因此，如果它在第四季度仍然是邊際生產商，我認為在任何情況下成本都不會下降，這是結構性的，因為加工特定類型礦石的挑戰、它們擁有的能源以及該業務的季節性出色地。很難完全誠實地評估其他市場。毫無疑問，如果你看到每公斤 3 美元的成本，那麼今天可能是 5 美元或 6 美元，運營成本、能源成本和第三方成本更高。順便說一句，如果您看到 7 美元或 8 美元，這些都是他們提供的現金費用。所以它們根本不包括資本成本，7 美元或 8 美元今天可能達到兩位數。

And then on fourth quartile, I mean, they're solidly sort of first, second quartile production assets by any historical cost curve. So it's definitely moving up and moving up quickly. And I think as you look at some of the ore bodies that have been brought under a hard rock, if you look at the model, the model remains, develop the mine and ship it somewhere else, they ship the product to a third-party toller. It's just the most expensive way to do it. And as more of the business is produced that way, more of the material is produced that way rather than as integrated production then the cost is going to keep going higher.

然後在第四個四分位數，我的意思是，根據任何歷史成本曲線，它們確實是第一、第二個四分位數的生產資產。所以它肯定在快速上升。而且我認為當你看一些被帶到堅硬岩石下的礦體時，如果你看模型，模型仍然存在，開發礦山並將其運送到其他地方，他們將產品運送給第三方收費員。這只是最昂貴的方法。隨著越來越多的業務以這種方式生產，更多的材料以這種方式生產，而不是作為集成生產，那麼成本將繼續上漲。

I think from most people, given the technical challenges and the increased capital required of producing, say, a hydroxide plant, most people who own a lithium asset today are not going to go to the trouble of developing a lithium hydroxide asset. So it doesn't matter what the resource cost is, they're fundamentally producing lithium on that model on a higher cost structure and nonintegrated structure. So it's -- these are all pressures that are just going to keep pushing the marginal cost higher.

我認為，從大多數人的角度來看，考慮到技術挑戰和生產氫氧化鋰工廠所需的資金增加，如今擁有鋰資產的大多數人都不會費心去開發氫氧化鋰資產。因此，資源成本是多少並不重要，他們基本上是在更高成本結構和非集成結構的模型上生產鋰。所以它 - 這些都是只會繼續推高邊際成本的壓力。

We go next now to David Deckelbaum at Cowen and Company.

接下來我們去 Cowen and Company 的 David Deckelbaum。

I did just want to follow up a little bit on the pricing conversation to confirm a couple of things. One, the 40% increase year-over-year, does that reflect contract negotiations that occurred for 2023? Were these earlier than expected? And then the latter part is you highlighted that you only have 1 remaining fixed contract for 2024. What does that currently represent as a percentage of your contract exposure or sales?

我只是想跟進一點定價對話以確認幾件事。第一，同比增長 40%，這是否反映了 2023 年發生的合同談判？這些比預期的要早嗎？然後，您強調後一部分是您在 2024 年只剩下 1 份固定合同。目前這佔您的合同風險或銷售額的百分比是多少？

When you think about how we contract business, let me just step back before I answer the specifics of that. And just to sort of remind you how maybe we're a little different to pretty much anybody else in the industry. Just remember, we sell largely hydroxide, and we sell largely hydroxide into high-nickel battery applications. We do have others , for example, and other applications. But we're largely selling into that space. The characteristics of that are a little bit different to what you might see elsewhere.

當您考慮我們如何承包業務時，讓我先退後一步，然後再回答具體問題。只是想提醒您，也許我們與業內幾乎所有其他人都有點不同。請記住，我們主要銷售氫氧化物，我們主要銷售氫氧化物用於高鎳電池應用。例如，我們確實有其他應用程序和其他應用程序。但我們主要是在那個領域銷售。它的特徵與您在其他地方可能看到的略有不同。

First and foremost, you have to develop long-standing relationships with customers because the process of qualification, just the sheer complexity of that supply chain, the cost of qualifying your material, et cetera. Frankly, the fact that for many of our customers, almost all of them, we run a specific grade for that customer specific packaging for that customer. You sort of -- you're always in a bit of a dance with your customer about these commitments as why you see us talk about take-or-pay in hydroxide, which we don't do with carbonate, not most others.

首先，您必須與客戶建立長期關係，因為資格認證過程、供應鏈的複雜性、材料資格認證的成本等等。坦率地說，對於我們的許多客戶，幾乎所有客戶，我們都為該客戶的特定包裝運行特定等級。你有點 - 你總是與你的客戶就這些承諾進行一些舞蹈，因為你看到我們談論氫氧化物的照付不議，我們不使用碳酸鹽，而不是大多數其他人。

You'll see us talk about selling "Under contracts on the hydroxide," which we don't do and I think most won't do in carbonate. It really is a very different business. So the conversations with the customers are for one of a better description perpetual. I think the easiest solution many customers are seeing to this, especially as the OEMs are increasingly becoming the customers. But even with the battery producers who themselves are trying to make sure that they with a price that isn't reflective of market conditions is to move to market-based pricing.

你會看到我們談論銷售“根據氫氧化物合同”，我們不這樣做，我認為大多數人不會在碳酸鹽中這樣做。這確實是一個非常不同的行業。因此，與客戶的對話是永久的更好描述之一。我認為這是許多客戶看到的最簡單的解決方案，尤其是在原始設備製造商越來越多地成為客戶的情況下。但即使是電池生產商，他們自己也在努力確保他們的價格不能反映市場狀況，從而轉向基於市場的定價。

And so in most cases, what customers are trying to do is to figure out what that means, what is the market price, other indices we can look to? Does it involve annual renegotiations, a bit of a blast from the past from 5 to 10 years ago when everything was negotiated that way? These are all perpetual negotiations. They are -- the volumes you see there are largely done under contractual commitments. They, I believe, frankly, will continue to change over the next 2 to 3 years as the market evolves as customers get a better view of where they want material shipped to, how much the IRA is going to change their supply chain and how much premium, if any, they're willing to put on U.S. source material, which battery technologies they follow? Do they all stay high nickel? Do some of them get pushed towards carbonate-based technologies, given challenges in getting enough hydroxide?

所以在大多數情況下，客戶想要做的是弄清楚這意味著什麼，市場價格是多少，我們可以參考其他指數？它是否涉及年度重新談判，從 5 到 10 年前的過去有點爆炸，當時一切都是這樣談判的？這些都是永久性的談判。他們是——你在那裡看到的數量主要是根據合同承諾完成的。坦率地說，我相信，隨著市場的發展，他們將在未來 2 到 3 年內繼續發生變化，因為客戶可以更好地了解他們想要將材料運往何處、IRA 將在多大程度上改變他們的供應鏈以及有多少溢價，如果有的話，他們願意使用美國原材料，他們遵循哪些電池技術？它們都保持高鎳嗎？考慮到獲得足夠氫氧化物的挑戰，他們中的一些人是否被推向基於碳酸鹽的技術？

So when we sit down and when we look at these negotiations, I think it's going to be different every single year. I wouldn't expect the customers to change. We'll put more volumes to some customers. We'll add 1 or 2 new customers. But what I would expect to happen as this market evolves, is that we get closer to market economics in any given year. I'm not going to unfortunately be able to answer your question as to how much of the volume is under that 1 fixed price contract.

因此，當我們坐下來審視這些談判時，我認為每年都會有所不同。我不希望客戶改變。我們將向一些客戶提供更多數量。我們將添加 1 或 2 個新客戶。但隨著這個市場的發展，我預計會發生的事情是，我們在任何一年都更接近市場經濟。不幸的是，我無法回答您關於 1 份固定價格合同下有多少交易量的問題。

But you can imagine that as we go forward, as we add more volume, again, there'll be less of this conversation necessary because more and more of our volume is going to be whether through contractual agreements that last multiple years or whether because of annual conversations are going to essentially reflect whatever the market conditions are at any -- at that point in time.

但是你可以想像，隨著我們前進，隨著我們增加更多的數量，再次，這種對話的必要性將會減少，因為我們越來越多的數量將是通過持續多年的合同協議，或者是否因為年度對話將基本上反映當時市場狀況的任何情況。

I appreciate that, Paul. My second question was just on Nemaska. Gilberto, is there a contingency in the CapEx guidance for '23 for Nemaska or would the DFS that comes out in the first half, would that present potentially incremental cost to that CapEx guidance?

我很感激，保羅。我的第二個問題只是關於 Nemaska。 Gilberto，Nemaska 的 23 年資本支出指南中是否存在意外情況，或者上半年出現的 DFS 是否會為該資本支出指南帶來潛在的增量成本？

It will not because the CapEx that we have there is predominantly for our growth projects at Livent. And at Nemaska, if we do anything, it would be a capital infusion, which is going to be honestly not material at this stage.

這不會，因為我們在那裡的資本支出主要用於我們在 Livent 的增長項目。在 Nemaska，如果我們做任何事情，那將是注資，老實說，這在現階段並不重要。

We will go next now to Christopher Parkinson at Mizuho Securities.

接下來我們將介紹瑞穗證券的克里斯托弗·帕金森。

Can you just give us a little bit more color on the incremental the 20,000 tons and the updated cadence in terms of when those tons are essentially being priced in, are they going to be rolled into existing contracts with existing customers, so on and so forth? Just trying to get a better sense of if that changes your exposure to spot over the next 18 to 24 months.

你能不能給我們更多關於 20,000 噸的增量和更新的節奏的更多顏色，這些噸數何時基本上被計入價格，它們是否會被納入與現有客戶的現有合同，等等？只是想更好地了解這是否會改變您在未來 18 到 24 個月內對斑點的接觸。

Chris, yes, I think as we've said before, all that volume is going to find its way into pricing structures that reflect the market conditions at the time. Some of them -- frankly, some of those volumes we need to meet contractual commitments that we've already signed, but those contractual commitments are market-based pricing, they reference market basis indices, et cetera. So yes, they've spoken for, but they're not priced yet. They'll be priced in the market at the time. Some of the rest of that volume will be committed closer to the time, and it won't be on a fixed -- it won't be on a multiyear fixed price.

克里斯，是的，我認為正如我們之前所說，所有這些數量都將進入反映當時市場狀況的定價結構。其中一些——坦率地說，其中一些數量我們需要履行我們已經簽署的合同承諾，但這些合同承諾是基於市場的定價，它們參考市場基礎指數等。所以是的，他們已經談過，但還沒有定價。屆時它們將在市場上定價。該數量的其餘部分將在更接近時間的時候承諾，並且不會是固定的——它不會是多年固定價格。

I think we've demonstrated this year we're willing to take a look at into the world and say, is there a price at which we're willing to set the pricing for the next upcoming year. And the answer is yes. And the answer is -- the question we'll answer every single year is how much of my portfolio am I willing to fix on that basis?

我認為我們今年已經證明我們願意審視世界並說，我們是否願意為下一年設定價格。答案是肯定的。答案是——我們每年都會回答的問題是我願意在此基礎上修復我的投資組合中的多少？

Frankly, even many of the contractual structures we go into with customers are not going to be monthly resets, probably quarterly resets in most cases. So I think it's all designed to sort of putting a little bit more predictability to some of these customers as they look at their annual pricing structures. But all of that volume as it comes on, as I said, I just -- I think the fixed price contract is a dinosaur that's dying out. And I think there won't be any renewals, extensions, expansions of contracts that are multiyear fixed-price contracts. They're all going to have a reference to the market at some -- in some way, shape or form embedded in them.

坦率地說，即使我們與客戶簽訂的許多合同結構也不會按月重置，在大多數情況下可能按季度重置。所以我認為這一切都是為了讓其中一些客戶在查看年度定價結構時更具可預測性。但是正如我所說的那樣，所有這些數量都在增加，我只是 - 我認為固定價格合同是一隻正在消亡的恐龍。而且我認為不會有任何續簽、延期和擴展多年期固定價格合同。他們都會在某種程度上參考市場——以某種方式、形狀或形式嵌入其中。

That's very helpful. And just you hit on a few times regarding the IRA and your exposure obviously, the Nemaska. But could you just hit on -- obviously, one of your competitors is fairly vocal on this. Can you sit on how you're thinking about it in terms of your U.S. assets? The relationship with Argentina. Obviously, there's been a lot of with Chile's relationship and even with the EU regarding some trade relationships within the last couple of months. Can you just hit on your overall thought process there, what you're hearing from your customers and how we should be thinking about that in the context of the Livent story?

這很有幫助。就 IRA 和 Nemaska 而言，你只是偶然發現了幾次。但是你能不能直截了當地說——顯然，你的一個競爭對手對此直言不諱。你能坐下來談談你對美國資產的看法嗎？與阿根廷的關係。顯然，在過去幾個月中，智利與歐盟的一些貿易關係發生了很多變化。您能否談談您在那裡的整體思維過程，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼，以及我們應該如何在 Livent 故事的背景下考慮這一點？

Always the easy questions, Chris, thanks. Okay, I think it's probably fair to say -- it's fair to say that -- it's difficult for anybody, as included automotive countries or anybody to build a 10-, 15-, 20-year investment leases on the basis of the IRA or any other individual government incentive program that's put in place, you have to be comfortable the asset can stand alone without a short-term government support infrastructure in place. There's a lot still to be resolved with the IRA. There's a lot of debates, conversations going on lobbying, clearly as to what is and what is not IRA compliance. I mean clearly, this the country idea, free trade agreement idea is important.

總是簡單的問題，克里斯，謝謝。好吧，我認為可以公平地說 - 可以公平地說 - 包括汽車國家或任何人在內的任何人都很難在 IRA 或任何其他已實施的個別政府激勵計劃，您必須確信該資產可以在沒有短期政府支持基礎設施的情況下獨立存在。 IRA 還有很多問題需要解決。關於什麼是 IRA 合規性以及什麼不是 IRA 合規性，有很多辯論和對話正在進行遊說。我的意思很清楚，這個國家的想法，自由貿易協定的想法很重要。

But the same is true for customers or users who maybe are not selling vehicles that qualify or they don't sell to customers that are in an income bracket that qualifies. And so I don't think it's going to be a simple case of a U.S. asset producing a lithium product is going to be hugely valuable. I mean an example is, today, at least, there aren't a lot of plans out there of scale to build U.S.-based battery capacity that uses lithium carbonate, right? So it's okay, bringing online lithium carbonate from the U.S., but somewhere, somehow it's going to have to be turned into lithium hydroxide.

但對於可能沒有銷售符合條件的車輛或者他們沒有向符合條件的收入等級的客戶銷售車輛的客戶或用戶來說，情況也是如此。因此，我認為生產鋰產品的美國資產不會具有巨大價值，這不會是一個簡單的案例。我的意思是，一個例子是，至少在今天，沒有很多計劃在美國建立使用碳酸鋰的電池容量，對嗎？所以沒關係，從美國帶上線碳酸鋰，但是在某個地方，不知何故它必須變成氫氧化鋰。

Now that could change, right? We could see a shift in carbonate-based battery technologies, building supply chains in the U.S., the IRA doesn't necessarily incentivize that. So there's a lot of complexity around lithium assets. I think that the truth remains, you've got to be able to produce a quality product that is battery grade and you have to have a reasonable cost position. Otherwise, no amount of government incentives are going to help you out of that position.

現在這可能會改變，對吧？我們可以看到基於碳酸鹽的電池技術的轉變，在美國建立供應鏈，IRA 不一定會激勵它。因此，鋰資產存在很多複雜性。我認為事實仍然存在，你必須能夠生產電池級的優質產品，並且你必須有一個合理的成本定位。否則，再多的政府激勵措施也無法幫助您擺脫困境。

We'll go next now to Matt DeYoe at Bank of America.

接下來我們將請美國銀行的 Matt DeYoe 發言。

So you're going to 40,000 metric tons at Hombre Muerto. And I think in the past, you said you could do 100,000 or perhaps that's possible. How do you get there from here? Appears some of your peers being a bit more aggressive with scaled expansions than I guess you've historically taken. So can you get to 60,000 new tons over 2 stages? Or should we expect more incremental adds?

所以你將在 Hombre Muerto 達到 40,000 公噸。我想在過去，你說你可以做 100,000 次，或者說那是可能的。你怎麼從這裡到那裡？看起來你的一些同行在規模擴張方面比我猜你過去採取的更具侵略性。那麼你能分 2 個階段達到 60,000 新噸嗎？或者我們應該期待更多的增量添加？

So Hombre Muerto can go -- the resource can go big, right? And you'll see that when the resource report comes out. This is not a resource constraint issue. So let's take that to 1 side. It's infrastructure, frankly. The single biggest issue for sure is infrastructure. If you guys ever get a temp to visit there, you'll realize it's not a place that you can surely fill with ponds like you can the Atacama. So you need a different technology to scale this as we have one, right? The DLE processes we use is eminently scalable to 100,000 tons. And if the energy supply and the fresh water supply is available and/or we can develop technologies like water, et cetera, or I think our expectation today, though, is based on what we can see is we're not willing to commit to more than 60,000 down there without some developments in those areas.

所以 Hombre Muerto 可以走了——資源可以變大，對吧？當資源報告發佈時，您會看到這一點。這不是資源限制問題。所以讓我們把它帶到一邊。坦率地說，這是基礎設施。可以肯定的是，最大的一個問題是基礎設施。如果你們有機會去那裡參觀，您會意識到這裡不是一個可以像阿塔卡馬那樣充滿池塘的地方。所以你需要一種不同的技術來擴展它，因為我們有一個，對吧？我們使用的 DLE 工藝可顯著擴展至 100,000 噸。如果能源供應和淡水供應可用和/或我們可以開發水等技術，或者我認為我們今天的期望是基於我們所看到的我們不願意承諾那裡有 60,000 多人，這些地區沒有任何發展。

We're working on them, and this is not a static decision, but we certainly have plans to go to 60,000 tons in the next few years, and they're being actively engineered, pursued and planned right now. I think we talked about getting to 100,000 when you take into account the Nemaska Lithium exposure that we have as well. I hope that we can move Argentina to 100,000 wide because I think it's really difficult for the industry as a whole to supply the lithium that people need without Argentina, Chile stepping up with much higher volumes than people are producing today. I mean it's the biggest resources, it's frankly the most environmentally friendly way to produce lithium is not perfect, but it's certainly better than many of the sort of hard rock-based processes that are nonintegrated that involve moving rock halfway around the world.

我們正在研究它們，這不是一個靜態的決定，但我們肯定計劃在未來幾年內達到 60,000 噸，並且現在正在積極設計、追求和規劃它們。我想當你考慮到我們也有 Nemaska Lithium 風險時，我們談到了達到 100,000。我希望我們可以將阿根廷擴大到 100,000 寬，因為我認為整個行業真的很難供應人們需要的鋰，而阿根廷和智利的產量遠高於人們今天的產量。我的意思是它是最大的資源，坦率地說，它是最環保的鋰生產方式並不完美，但它肯定比許多非集成的硬岩工藝要好，這些工藝涉及將岩石運到世界各地。

And it's reasonably low cost. And it's -- they're both countries that are largely speaking -- supporting the development of the lithium industry with their own personal flavors. So we certainly hope to get there, but we're realistic that there's some big infrastructure questions that need to be answered before we can make that jump from 60,000 to 100,000 and even beyond that.

而且它的成本相當低。而且——它們在很大程度上都是國家——以各自的個人喜好支持鋰工業的發展。因此，我們當然希望實現這一目標，但我們很現實，在我們實現從 60,000 躍升至 100,000 甚至更高之前，需要解決一些重大的基礎設施問題。

All right. And to stick with Argentina. I know it's kind of whack a mole on headlines down there, but all can discuss the removal of a 1.5% to 4% export tax out there for Argentina lithium. Can you talk through that in potential implications? Is it real? Is it not? What benefit you have from that?

好的。並堅持阿根廷。我知道那裡的頭條新聞有點像痣，但所有人都可以討論取消阿根廷鋰 1.5% 至 4% 的出口稅。你能談談潛在的影響嗎？這是真的嗎？不是嗎？你從中得到什麼好處？

Yes. Look, it is real. It's a reasonably small impact on us. I think the rebate we got last year was single-digit million. So Gilberto?

是的。看，這是真的。這對我們的影響相當小。我想我們去年得到的回扣是個位數。那麼吉爾伯托？

So about $1 million.

所以大約100萬美元。

And so the impact on us is not meaningful or significant. It's just part of the development down there that we'll see continuing. I think the whole conversations in Argentina is a complicated place, as you know. And there's a lot of politics as I said, whack-a-mole on headlines. There's a lot of politics with a small pizza to work your way too. But we've been doing it for 25, 30 years now, and it's no different to how it's always been.

因此，對我們的影響沒有意義或重大。這只是我們將看到的繼續發展的一部分。正如你所知，我認為在阿根廷的整個對話是一個複雜的地方。正如我所說，有很多政治因素在頭條新聞上打地鼠。一個小披薩也有很多政治可以按照你的方式運作。但我們已經這樣做了 25 年、30 年了，而且與以往沒有什麼不同。

We'll go next now to Joel Jackson of BMO Capital Markets.

接下來我們將請 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson 發言。

Paul, on Nemaska feasibility study, did it slip a little bit? I thought maybe it was going to come end of '22, and I thought you did order sell long lead time items. So I was wondering, did you delay that because you want the fees done before you start ordering equipment? Or maybe you can talk about that?

保羅，關於 Nemaska 可行性研究，它有沒有下滑一點？我想也許它會在 22 年底到來，我想你確實訂購了長交貨期的商品。所以我想知道，您是否因為希望在開始訂購設備之前完成費用而推遲了？或者你可以談談這個嗎？

Sure. I'm not sure where in the world you are to give us a good morning Joel, but...

當然。我不知道你在世界的哪個地方給我們早上好喬爾，但是......

All right, I'm in Toronto. Happy Valentine's Day, Paul.

好吧，我在多倫多。情人節快樂，保羅。

It's always morning in Toronto, something like Look. But 2022 was never on the cards, right? I think the original numbers we were looking at for the hydroxide plant was 2020, 2025, and now we're saying we'll be producing in 2026. So little different. So no change at all there. I think what has changed is the fact that we're now -- we would -- our original intent was given the timing to sort of produce spot concentrate or not selling any spot concentrate.

多倫多總是早上，有點像 Look。但是 2022 年從來沒有出現過，對吧？我認為我們為氫氧化物工廠尋找的原始數字是 2020 年、2025 年，現在我們說我們將在 2026 年生產。差別不大。所以那裡根本沒有變化。我認為發生變化的事實是，我們現在——我們會——我們最初的意圖是有時間生產現貨精礦或不銷售任何現貨精礦。

But now we frankly have just changed that plan and said, look, it makes sense just for a couple of years to self-port concentrate because we can get Whabouchi up and running much quicker than I want to get back and running. So is it really a plan change? It's not a construction plan change. I think it's a slightly different commercial plan change. But in terms of the asset development plan and progress now that it hasn't changed.

但現在我們坦率地改變了那個計劃並說，看，在幾年內自我轉移集中是有意義的，因為我們可以讓 Whabouchi 啟動和運行的速度比我想恢復和運行的速度快得多。那麼這真的是計劃變更嗎？這不是施工計劃變更。我認為這是一個略有不同的商業計劃變更。但就資產開發計劃和進展而言，現在它沒有改變。

Okay. And then we've obviously seen -- excuse me, a really big equity stake by GM recently have another mining project in the continent. And you got a prepayment situation with GM. And I think you talked about before that maybe as you get in the mask advance a bit maybe GM or others could be involved here. As you think about how you're going to finance the mask and your partner IQ, you spoke about a little bit earlier. What are kind of the most likely scenarios there of paid-for capital, government subsidy, there obviously seems to be way more bucket of money, a much larger bucket of money available in the States right now, some projects, and it seems like Canada is behind a bit.

好的。然後我們顯然已經看到 - 對不起，通用汽車最近擁有非常大的股權，在非洲大陸有另一個採礦項目。你和通用汽車有預付款的情況。我想你之前說過，也許當你進入面具的時候，通用汽車或其他人可能會參與其中。當你考慮如何為面具和你的伴侶智商提供資金時，你之前談到過一點。有償資本、政府補貼最有可能出現的情況是什麼，顯然似乎有更多的錢，現在美國、一些項目和加拿大似乎有更多的錢可用落後了一點。

It's a hard one to answer. I think, though, you're hitting on the right point. There's no doubt that the more progressive forward-thinking customers are definitely the ones that have got most scared by the realization that there won't be enough lithium to go around, they're trying to figure out how they can use the capabilities to help develop assets. It isn't just money. Money is helpful, of course, but you can frankly solve that by coming through a really high price, and we will finance things ourselves. But I think providing money upfront, providing help with whatever it may be, construction resources, engineering resources, not everybody needs it, but some people do.

這很難回答。不過，我認為你說對了。毫無疑問，更具前瞻性思維的客戶肯定是最害怕意識到沒有足夠的鋰可供使用的客戶，他們正試圖弄清楚如何利用這些能力來提供幫助開發資產。這不僅僅是錢。當然，錢是有幫助的，但坦率地說，你可以通過一個非常高的價格來解決這個問題，我們會自己出資。但我認為預先提供資金，提供任何可能的幫助，建築資源，工程資源，並不是每個人都需要它，但有些人需要。

And so I think there are definitely auto companies out there willing to provide help, governments, the same governments are trying to incentivize investments that align with the broader policies with regard to what they want their industries to be. You've seen the U.S. government, of course, give out some pretty significant grands, largely technology or resource development focus, which is the first wave, we'll see where we go after that.

因此，我認為肯定有汽車公司願意提供幫助，政府，同樣的政府正在努力激勵投資，這些投資與他們希望自己的行業成為什麼樣的更廣泛的政策相一致。你已經看到美國政府，當然，給出了一些非常重要的宏偉，主要是技術或資源開發重點，這是第一波，我們將看到我們之後的走向。

Canada is a long way behind, but, frankly, so is everywhere else in the world. So I wouldn't be up on Canada and Canada's demonstrated its willingness either at the federal or at the provincial level to provide meaningful support to these projects in terms of financing from multiple pockets but also in other ways, whether it's helping with permitting and other areas. So I think there will be continued evolution of the question of who provides the financing, what it looks like and what do -- if it's customers or governments, what do they get back in return. But I think they'll be an important part of the development of our industry, particularly, as you said, in North America.

加拿大遠遠落後，但坦率地說，世界其他地方也是如此。所以我不會反對加拿大，加拿大在聯邦或省級層面表現出願意為這些項目提供有意義的支持，包括從多個口袋提供資金以及其他方式，無論是在許可和其他方面的幫助領域。因此，我認為誰提供融資、提供融資的形式以及做什麼的問題將繼續演變——如果是客戶或政府，他們會得到什麼回報。但我認為它們將成為我們行業發展的重要組成部分，特別是正如你所說的，在北美。

We'll go next now to Pavel Molchanov at Raymond James.

接下來我們將請教 Raymond James 的 Pavel Molchanov。

Lots of interest, obviously, in the hydroxide demand. Can I ask about butyllithium? Smaller slice of your revenue mix, probably not as . But what are you seeing in terms of demand these days?

很明顯，人們對氫氧化物的需求很感興趣。我可以問一下丁基鋰嗎？您收入組合中的一小部分，可能不如 .但是您最近在需求方面看到了什麼？

Yes. Butyl is a good business. Let's be honest. It's a business we have a leadership positioning globally, and that accounts for a lot. We have a long relationship with customers. It's also got some great characteristics with regard to it's not really replaceable in most processes that it's used in and it's not a big part of the cost structure. So it's a really good business for us. It's not an easy business. It's a complicated product to make. It's very much a regional business in terms of -- historically has been a regional business as well. Its biggest issue is that butyl is basically produced with metal or lithium metal, largely, today is produced from lithium carbonate. So as carbonate prices go up, metal prices go up. What we've seen in the business in terms of growth is the business would not have made economic sense if we hadn't been able to pass on this massive increase in lithium metal prices, which we're exposed to as we buy lithium metal and convert it into butyl. And everybody in the industry is, by the way, has the same exposure to lithium metal.

是的。丁基橡膠是一門好生意。說實話。這是我們在全球範圍內處於領先地位的業務，這佔了很大一部分。我們與客戶有著長期的合作關係。它也有一些很好的特性，因為它在它所使用的大多數流程中並不是真正可替換的，而且它不是成本結構的重要組成部分。所以這對我們來說是一個非常好的業務。這不是一件容易的事。這是一個複雜的產品。就歷史而言，它在很大程度上是一項區域性業務——歷史上也是一項區域性業務。它最大的問題是丁基橡膠基本上是用金屬或鋰金屬生產的，今天主要是由碳酸鋰生產的。因此，隨著碳酸鹽價格上漲，金屬價格也會上漲。我們在業務增長方面看到的是，如果我們不能將鋰金屬價格的大幅上漲轉嫁給我們，那麼我們在購買鋰金屬時就會面臨這種情況，那麼該業務就沒有經濟意義並將其轉化為丁基。順便說一下，這個行業的每個人都對鋰金屬有同樣的了解。

And so we've been able to pass that on. And so what it's been able to do it looks like a much larger part of revenue today because it is because pricing has moved meaningfully in 2022 in that business. But much of it is cost to pass on. So the margin impact is not maybe as great as you would think as the revenue piece is. Again, it's a good business. But just a little bit of background, one of the reasons that we used to be in this business historically is that metals made from chloride we're the only producer in the world then and largely still now that's basic in chloride. So we had this reason to be there.

所以我們已經能夠將其傳遞下去。因此，它能夠做到的在今天看來佔收入的很大一部分，因為這是因為該業務的定價在 2022 年發生了有意義的變化。但其中很大一部分是傳遞成本。所以利潤率的影響可能不像你想像的那麼大。再說一次，這是一門好生意。但只是一點點背景，我們過去從事這項業務的原因之一是我們當時是世界上唯一的氯化物金屬生產商，現在基本上仍然是氯化物。所以我們有這個理由去那裡。

Today, you find yourself in a place so that you can divert that chloride to make carbonate, you can divert carbonate to make metal if you choose, butyl pricing has to be price competitive with other uses of those LCEs today, which wasn't the case in the past. It's why there's been, I think, a fundamental step-up in the scale and the nature of that business. Growth is not -- it's not a really growthy business. No, most of the applications are GDP-type growers, particularly most of the growth is in Asia. So you got to have a decent Asia footprint in that business as well. But it's -- as you can see, it's 30% of our revenue last year and this year. So it's not a business to be dismissed.

今天，您發現自己處在一個可以將氯化物轉化為碳酸鹽的地方，如果您願意，可以將碳酸鹽轉化為金屬，丁基橡膠的定價必須與當今這些 LCE 的其他用途相比具有價格競爭力，而這不是過去的情況。我認為，這就是為什麼該業務的規模和性質有了根本性的提升。增長不是——這不是一個真正增長的業務。不是，大部分申請都是GDP類型的種植者，特別是大部分的增長都在亞洲。因此，您還必須在該業務中擁有不錯的亞洲足跡。但它——正如你所看到的，它占我們去年和今年收入的 30%。所以這不是被解僱的生意。

Touching on the Asia angle. Insofar as China and Asia more broadly become less dominant in battery production than they have historically. The changes in logistics around that, is that good, bad or neutral for Livent?

觸及亞洲角度。就中國和亞洲在電池生產方面的主導地位不如歷史上的情況而言，範圍更廣。物流方面的變化，對 Livent 來說是好是壞還是中性？

Look, I think this idea of less dominant is an interesting one, but I think you have to be more clear, less dominant can still be very dominant, right, because they clearly are today. I don't think the supply chains are going to be -- they're still going to be massively weighted towards Asia as a whole, for sure, when you take Japan and Korea into account, but even to China. But I do think that as there are supply chains being built outside China, they'll be bigger, right? You could have a supply chain that's ex China that might be bigger than the entire supply chain is today by 2030.

看，我認為這種不那麼主導的想法很有趣，但我認為你必須更清楚，不那麼主導仍然可以非常主導，對，因為他們今天顯然是。我認為供應鏈不會——它們仍然會在很大程度上偏重於整個亞洲，當然，當你考慮到日本和韓國時，甚至是中國。但我確實認為，由於在中國以外建立了供應鏈，它們會更大，對嗎？到 2030 年，中國以外的供應鏈可能比現在的整個供應鏈還要大。

So you could have a European and a U.S. Canada supply chain lithium cathode materials cell manufacturer that's huge. It's still a lot smaller than Asia, but it's going to be huge. So we create opportunities for companies like Livent. We have assets in China, we'll continue to operate in China. But clearly, we're positioning ourselves much more to service non-China markets as they grow.

因此，您可以擁有一家歐洲和美國加拿大供應鏈的大型鋰陰極材料電池製造商。它仍然比亞洲小很多，但它會很大。因此，我們為像 Livent 這樣的公司創造了機會。我們在中國有資產，我們會繼續在中國經營。但很明顯，隨著非中國市場的增長，我們將更多地定位於服務這些市場。

And ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions this afternoon. Mr. Rosen, I'll turn things back to you for any closing comments.

女士們，先生們，這就是我們今天下午所有的提問時間。羅森先生，如果您有任何結束評論，我會把事情轉回給您。

Thanks. That's all the time we have for the call today, but we will be available following the call to address any additional questions you may have. Thanks, everyone, and have a good evening.

謝謝。這就是我們今天通話的全部時間，但我們將在通話結束後隨時為您解答您可能遇到的任何其他問題。謝謝大家，祝大家晚上好。

Thank you, Mr. Rosen. Again, ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's Livent Corporation conference call. I would like to thank you all so much for joining us and wish you all a great evening. Goodbye.

謝謝你，羅森先生。女士們先生們，今天的 Livent Corporation 電話會議將結束。非常感謝大家加入我們，祝大家度過一個愉快的夜晚。再見。