鋰生產商 Livent 公佈了第二季度強勁的財務業績,並重申了 2023 年全年財務指引。該公司正經歷著客戶的健康需求和充滿活力的鋰市場。
Nemaska Lithium 項目正在取得進展,Livent 已提議與 Allkem 合併,創建一家全球領先的鋰化學品生產商。 Livent 還發布了 2022 年年度可持續發展報告。
該公司第二季度業績顯示,與去年同期相比,收入、調整後 EBITDA 和調整後收益均有所增長。隨著持續擴張的進展,Livent 今年的資本支出預計下半年將減少。
該公司重申了2023年全年指引,預計財務業績較2022年大幅改善。Livent正在擴大氫氧化鋰和碳酸鋰的產能,中國鋰價穩定在每公斤30美元左右。
該公司對其項目的商業生產日期充滿信心,但警告不要倉促實施工程流程。 Livent 相信,在氫氧化鋰市場上存在優化盈利能力並擁有差異化足蹟的機會。
該公司正在討論固定價格合同和持續的資本支出計劃。 Livent 提議與 Allkem 合併,理由是需要一家大型且可靠的公司以及潛在的整合優勢。
該公司對下半年的市場趨勢和定價假設有很好的了解,但也承認定價波動可能會影響業績。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call for Livent Corporation.
下午好,歡迎參加 Livent Corporation 2023 年第二季度收益發布電話會議。
(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Daniel Rosen, Investor Relations and Strategy for Livent Corporation. Mr. Rosen, you may begin.
(操作員指示)我現在將會議轉交給 Livent Corporation 投資者關係和戰略部門的 Daniel Rosen 先生。羅森先生,您可以開始了。
Daniel Rosen - IR Manager
Daniel Rosen - IR Manager
Great. Thank you, Josh. Good evening, everyone, and welcome to Livent's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call.
偉大的。謝謝你,喬什。大家晚上好,歡迎參加 Livent 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。
Joining me today are Paul Graves, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Gilberto Antoniazzi, Chief Financial Officer. The slide presentation that accompanies our results, along with our earnings release, can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.
今天與我一起出席的還有總裁兼首席執行官 Paul Graves;和首席財務官吉爾伯托·安東尼亞齊。我們的業績附帶的幻燈片演示以及我們的收益發布可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。
Prepared remarks from today's discussion will be made available after the call. Following our prepared remarks, Paul and Gilberto will be available to address your questions. Given the number of participants on the call today, we would request a limit of 1 question and 1 follow-up per caller. We will be happy to address any additional questions after the call.
今天的討論準備好的評論將在電話會議後公佈。在我們準備好的發言之後,保羅和吉爾伯托將回答您的問題。鑑於今天參加電話會議的人數,我們要求每個來電者最多提出 1 個問題和 1 次跟進。我們很樂意在通話後解決任何其他問題。
Before we begin, let me remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties concerning specific factors, including, but not limited to, those factors identified in our Form 10-K and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information presented represents our best judgment based on today's information. Actual results may vary based upon these risks and uncertainties.
在我們開始之前,請允許我提醒您,今天的討論將包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到有關特定因素的各種風險和不確定性的影響,這些特定因素包括但不限於我們的10-K 表格和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中確定的因素。證券交易委員會。所提供的信息代表我們根據今天的信息做出的最佳判斷。實際結果可能會因這些風險和不確定性而有所不同。
Today's discussion will include references to various non-GAAP financial metrics. Definitions of these terms as well as a reconciliation to the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP are provided on our Investor Relations website.
今天的討論將包括對各種非公認會計原則財務指標的引用。我們的投資者關係網站上提供了這些術語的定義以及根據 GAAP 計算和呈現的最直接可比較的財務指標的調節表。
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Paul.
然後,我會將電話轉給保羅。
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Thank you, Dan, and good evening, everyone.
謝謝丹,大家晚上好。
As always, we have a number of important topics to cover with you today. Livent reported another strong financial performance in the second quarter and we continue to see very healthy demand from our customers and a fairly resilient broader lithium market environment.
與往常一樣,今天我們有許多重要的話題要向您介紹。 Livent 報告第二季度財務業績再次強勁,我們繼續看到客戶的需求非常健康,鋰市場環境也相當有彈性。
The company is also reiterating its full year 2023 financial guidance after previously raising projections with our first quarter results. This year's anticipated record performance is highlighted by adjusted EBITDA projected between $530 million and $600 million.
在之前提高第一季度業績預測後,該公司還重申了 2023 年全年財務指引。調整後 EBITDA 預計在 5.3 億至 6 億美元之間,凸顯了今年的預期創紀錄業績。
Progress at Nemaska Lithium, an integrated 34,000 metric ton lithium hydroxide project in which Livent is a 50% shareholder and operating partner continues to advance. After completing its detailed engineering phase earlier this year and receiving Nemaska Board approval, the company is pushing forward with construction and plans for first sales in 2025 in the form of spodumene concentrate. We've provided cost estimates for development of the integrated project as we will discuss. Nemaska Lithium also signed its first customer agreement which was announced with Ford Motor Company in the second quarter. Ford will be an important and strategic partner as both companies and Livent share a commitment to the development of a sustainable and socially responsible North American battery supply chain.
Nemaska Lithium 是一個 34,000 噸氫氧化鋰綜合項目,Livent 是該項目 50% 的股東和運營合作夥伴,該項目的進展仍在繼續推進。在今年早些時候完成詳細工程階段並獲得 Nemaska 董事會批准後,該公司正在推進建設,併計劃於 2025 年以鋰輝石精礦的形式首次銷售。我們已經提供了集成項目開發的成本估算,我們將對此進行討論。 Nemaska Lithium 還於第二季度與福特汽車公司簽署了第一份客戶協議。福特將成為重要的戰略合作夥伴,因為公司和 Livent 都共同致力於發展可持續且對社會負責的北美電池供應鏈。
During the second quarter, Livent and Allkem announced a proposal to combine in a merger of equals transaction to create a leading global lithium chemicals producer. In addition to reiterating the highly compelling logic for the transaction, we will highlight the progress made since signing and the key milestones to expect as we approach a targeted transaction close by around the end of calendar year 2023.
第二季度,Livent 和 Allkem 宣布了一項以平等合併交易方式合併的提議,以創建一家全球領先的鋰化學品生產商。除了重申該交易極具說服力的邏輯外,我們還將重點介紹自簽署以來所取得的進展以及我們在 2023 年年底左右接近目標交易時預期的關鍵里程碑。
Finally, Livent recently published its annual sustainability report for 2022. We will touch on key accomplishments for the company as well as our unwavering belief that lithium will continue to play a critical role in supporting a low-carbon future.
最後,Livent 最近發布了 2022 年年度可持續發展報告。我們將討論該公司的主要成就以及我們堅定不移的信念,即鋰將繼續在支持低碳未來方面發揮關鍵作用。
Before going into more detail on Livent business updates, I will turn the call over to Gilberto to discuss our second quarter performance as well as our reiterated full year 2023 financial guidance.
在詳細介紹 Livent 業務更新之前,我將把電話轉給 Gilberto,討論我們第二季度的業績以及我們重申的 2023 年全年財務指引。
Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer
Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer
Thanks, Paul, and good evening, everyone.
謝謝,保羅,大家晚上好。
Turning to Slide 4. Livent reported second quarter revenue of $236 million, adjusted EBITDA of $135 million and adjusted earnings of $0.51 per diluted share. These results were all up considerably versus the second quarter of 2022. Our lower -- record-setting first quarter 2023 results. Volumes sold were roughly flat versus the first quarter, while average realized prices were slightly lower and overall costs were higher, all of which was largely in line with our own expectations and already reflected in our 2023 full year financial guidance. Lower realized price in the second quarter was seen across most of our lithium products. However, the impact was more limited by the fact that we sell very lithium carbonate today, which is where we saw the weakest relative prices.
轉向幻燈片 4。Livent 報告第二季度收入為 2.36 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 1.35 億美元,調整後每股攤薄收益為 0.51 美元。與 2022 年第二季度相比,這些結果均大幅上升。我們的 2023 年第一季度結果創下歷史新低。銷量與第一季度大致持平,而平均實現價格略低,總體成本較高,所有這些在很大程度上符合我們自己的預期,並已反映在我們的 2023 年全年財務指引中。我們的大多數鋰產品第二季度的實現價格較低。然而,由於我們今天銷售的碳酸鋰非常多,因此影響更為有限,這是我們看到相對價格最弱的地方。
Given the negative trend we saw in lithium market prices in the first quarter of this year and the natural lag of a few months typically seen in achieved contract prices, we had decent visibility into this move lower.
鑑於我們在今年第一季度看到的鋰市場價格的負面趨勢以及通常在實現的合同價格中出現的幾個月的自然滯後,我們對這一下跌趨勢有很好的了解。
We previously discussed the cost-related benefits we saw in the first quarter has been mostly timing related. As expected, we saw the impact of higher costs on our second quarter results, and we'll continue to do so for the remainder of 2023. The biggest drivers behind this increase were royalty payments as a result of higher reference price on which royalties are calculated and higher input cost for production, most notably energy, raw materials such as soda ash and labor.
我們之前討論過我們在第一季度看到的與成本相關的收益主要與時間相關。正如預期的那樣,我們看到了成本上升對第二季度業績的影響,並且我們將在2023 年剩餘時間內繼續這樣做。這一增長背後的最大驅動因素是特許權使用費,因為特許權使用費的參考價格較高。計算得出的生產投入成本較高,尤其是能源、純鹼等原材料和勞動力。
Livent's total capital spend year-to-date was $156 million. We expect this level to decrease in the second half of the year as we further progress multiple ongoing expansions. As a reminder, Livent's 2023 capital expenditures are anticipated to be $325 million to $375 million, slightly higher than 2022, and are supported by adjusted cash flow from operations projected to be in the range of $360 million to $440 million.
Livent 今年迄今的總資本支出為 1.56 億美元。隨著我們進一步推進多項正在進行的擴張,我們預計這一水平將在下半年下降。需要提醒的是,Livent 2023 年的資本支出預計為 3.25 億至 3.75 億美元,略高於 2022 年,並得到預計在 3.6 億至 4.4 億美元範圍內的調整後運營現金流的支持。
Our balance sheet and overall liquidity remain very strong. We ended the quarter with $168 million in cash and no draw under our $500 million revolving credit facility. The combination of our current cash position, our ability to draw on the credit facility and a strong outlook for cash generation give us continued confidence in our ability to internally fund our capacity expansions.
我們的資產負債表和整體流動性仍然非常強勁。本季度結束時,我們擁有 1.68 億美元的現金,並且 5 億美元的循環信貸額度沒有提款。我們當前的現金狀況、利用信貸額度的能力以及強勁的現金產生前景相結合,使我們對自己為產能擴張提供內部資金的能力充滿信心。
On Slide 5, we reaffirmed Livent's full year 2023 guidance range after increasing projections with our first quarter results. We continue to expect a substantial improvement in financial performance compared to 2022, leading to another year of record results.
在幻燈片 5 上,我們在提高第一季度業績預測後,重申了 Livent 的 2023 年全年指導範圍。我們繼續預計,與 2022 年相比,財務業績將大幅改善,從而再創歷史新高。
For the full year, we project revenue to be in the range of $1.025 billion to $1.125 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $530 million to $600 million. This implies revenue growth of 32% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 54% at midpoint versus 2022. Our guidance continues to be based on higher volumes sold and higher average realized pricing across all lithium products, partially offset by higher anticipated costs.
我們預計全年收入將在 10.25 億美元至 11.25 億美元之間,調整後的 EBITDA 將在 5.3 億美元至 6 億美元之間。這意味著與2022 年相比,中點收入增長32%,調整後EBITDA 增長54%。我們的指導仍然基於所有鋰產品的銷量增加和平均實現定價提高,但部分被較高的預期成本所抵消。
We expect second half of 2023 financial performance to be broadly similar to the first half of the year. But as you have seen with Livent in the past, the cadence of our earnings can be very different especially given different product and customer mixes from one quarter to the next. When evaluating what could potentially impact full year results, be it towards the high or low end of our guidance ranges, it largely comes down to volume and pricing. Total volumes in the second half of 2023 were always expected to be higher than the first half for Livent, driven by our initial phases of expansion coming online. This includes our first 10,000 metric ton expansion of lithium carbonate in Argentina, which is largely complete and it could be commissioning phase, and we'll see a near 5,000 metric ton lithium hydroxide line in Bessemer City, North Carolina. That was completed at the end of last year.
我們預計 2023 年下半年的財務表現將與上半年大致相似。但正如您過去在 Livent 中看到的那樣,我們的盈利節奏可能會非常不同,特別是考慮到每個季度的產品和客戶組合不同。在評估可能影響全年業績的因素時,無論是我們指導範圍的高端還是低端,很大程度上取決於數量和價格。在我們在線擴張的初始階段的推動下,Livent 2023 年下半年的總銷量始終預計將高於上半年。這包括我們在阿根廷的首個 10,000 噸碳酸鋰擴建項目,該項目已基本完成,可能進入調試階段,我們將在北卡羅來納州貝塞默市看到一條近 5,000 噸氫氧化鋰生產線。該工作已於去年底完成。
Due to the nature of our ramp-up in Argentina, most of this incremental sales volume will be weighted towards the fourth quarter, meaning any delays could result in a partial production increases rolling to 2024. Equally, we had always expected market prices to decline through 2023, especially compared to the fourth quarter of last year resulting in slightly lower realized prices in the second half compared to the first half of 2023. Despite this, we continue to expect that Livent will see meaningful average realized price improvements in the full year 2023 compared to 2022. Ultimately, the magnitude of this improvement will be determined by how the lithium market evolves over the remainder of this year and particularly in the fourth quarter, given our volume CAGR.
由於我們在阿根廷產量增長的性質,大部分增量銷量將集中在第四季度,這意味著任何延遲都可能導致部分產量增加,直至 2024 年。同樣,我們一直預計市場價格會下降到2023 年,特別是與去年第四季度相比,導致下半年的實現價格略低於2023 年上半年。儘管如此,我們仍然預計Livent 全年的平均實現價格將出現有意義的改善2023 年與2022 年相比。最終,考慮到我們的銷量複合年增長率,這種改善的幅度將取決於今年剩餘時間內鋰市場的發展,特別是第四季度的發展。
While we achieved higher lithium prices in the first half of the year versus initial expectations and the market continues to feel healthy, our guidance does not assume any notable yearly improvement in lithium prices from current levels.
儘管我們在今年上半年實現了高於最初預期的鋰價格,並且市場繼續保持健康,但我們的指導意見並未假設鋰價格較當前水平出現任何顯著的年度改善。
As a reminder, roughly 70% of our 2023 volumes at prices that are fixed for 2023 on terms that were set prior to our fourth quarter earnings release, and many of these are under firm take-or-pay commitments. As a result, we have a high degree of confidence around a 40% average expected price increase across these bonds. The remaining 30% of volumes have varying levels of exposure to the lead to market price. The 70-30 volume allocation between firm fixed price commitments and market price exposed opportunities, allows us to strike a balance of locking in higher prices for 2023, while retaining flexibility to elect which product line to focus on, carbonate or hydroxide, and even chloride or metal versus butylithium. It also allows us to retain potential additional upside as we move into 2024.
需要提醒的是,我們 2023 年銷量中大約 70% 的價格是根據我們第四季度收益發布之前確定的條款確定的 2023 年價格,其中許多都是堅定的照付不議承諾。因此,我們對這些債券的平均預期價格上漲 40% 充滿信心。其餘 30% 的交易量對市場價格的影響程度不同。堅定的固定價格承諾和市場價格暴露機會之間的70-30 數量分配,使我們能夠在鎖定2023 年更高的價格之間取得平衡,同時保留選擇重點關注哪個產品線(碳酸鹽或氫氧化物,甚至氯化物)的靈活性或金屬與丁基鋰。它還使我們能夠在進入 2024 年時保留潛在的額外上漲空間。
Finally, where we expect higher costs in 2023, we anticipate meaningful margin improvement versus 2022, largely due to pricing, which will more than offset these higher costs. Compared to the second quarter, in addition to higher projected royalty payments in Argentina, we expect to temporarily face higher costs on the commissioning and ramp-up of our new production units in the second half of the year.
最後,我們預計 2023 年成本會更高,預計利潤率將比 2022 年大幅提高,這主要是由於定價,這將足以抵消這些更高的成本。與第二季度相比,除了預計阿根廷的特許權使用費較高外,我們預計下半年新生產裝置的調試和產能將暫時面臨更高的成本。
I will now turn the call back to Paul.
現在我將把電話轉回給保羅。
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Thank you, Gilberto.
謝謝你,吉爾伯托。
While not as extensive as our typical remarks, I do want to make a few comments on current lithium market dynamics. We've seen the historically higher lithium prices at the end of Q4 of last year fall to what we believe are more sustainable levels in the last 2 quarters. The floor on pricing which is likely set by high-cost producers in China seems to be settling at above $30 per kilo in China based on public data points, and we expect this to be the case through the rest of this year and into 2024. However, we also can see that there are likely to be price spikes above this level into the foreseeable future, driven by inevitable demand movements and supply interruptions, both of which can be driven by multiple hard-to-predict factors.
雖然不像我們的典型評論那麼廣泛,但我確實想對當前的鋰市場動態發表一些評論。我們看到去年第四季度末歷史上較高的鋰價格在過去兩個季度下降至我們認為更可持續的水平。根據公開數據,中國高成本生產商可能設定的定價下限似乎將穩定在每公斤 30 美元以上,我們預計今年剩餘時間和 2024 年都會如此。然而,我們也可以看到,在可預見的未來,由於不可避免的需求變動和供應中斷,價格可能會飆升至該水平之上,而這兩者都可能由多種難以預測的因素驅動。
Underlying fundamentals ignoring these short-term movements remain the same, which is an overall market that is at best tight. When looking at the higher performance qualified material market such as battery qualified hydroxide, quite likely short of sufficient supply for several years to come. Given these market characteristics, we have remained consistent in our realized price forecast for the year, with average prices in the second half of 2023 lower than what we saw at the end of Q4 last year and into Q1, but still significantly higher than what we have ever seen historically.
忽略這些短期走勢的基本面保持不變,整體市場充其量是緊張的。當考慮更高性能的合格材料市場(例如電池合格的氫氧化物)時,未來幾年很可能會出現供應不足的情況。鑑於這些市場特徵,我們對今年的實現價格預測保持一致,2023 年下半年的平均價格低於去年第四季度末和第一季度的水平,但仍顯著高於我們的預測歷史上曾經見過。
Turning now to Slide 6 and a few operational updates for Livent. As you may have heard during the quarter, in the early morning of Monday, June 26, a fire broke out at Livent's 800-acre manufacturing facility in Bessemer City, North Carolina. The fire was largely contained to a warehouse that was used primarily to store lithium metal and is located away from most of our operating facilities at the site. Most importantly, there were no injuries to Livent personnel, emergency responders or members of the surrounding community. Livent carries adequate insurance for this type of event and is working with its providers to assess the damage and applicable coverage. So it's expected to be minimal impact on financial results from the incident.
現在轉向幻燈片 6 和 Livent 的一些操作更新。正如您在本季度中可能聽說的那樣,6 月 26 日星期一清晨,Livent 位於北卡羅來納州貝塞默市佔地 800 英畝的製造工廠發生火災。火災主要發生在一個主要用於儲存鋰金屬的倉庫內,該倉庫遠離我們在現場的大部分運營設施。最重要的是,Livent 人員、應急響應人員或周圍社區成員沒有受傷。 Livent 為此類事件提供了足夠的保險,並正在與其提供商合作評估損失和適用的承保範圍。因此,預計該事件對財務業績的影響極小。
The company was able to resume operations at Bessemer City within just 2 days of the fire and lithium hydroxide, butyllithium and catalyst grade lithium metal production lines were quickly back to normal operating levels. There is one business we have periodically discussed that may take a few additional months to bring production back online due to impacts on shared infrastructure, and that is high-purity lithium metal. However, this product is very small from an earnings contribution standpoint.
該公司在火災發生後短短兩天內就恢復了貝西默城的運營,氫氧化鋰、丁基鋰和催化劑級金屬鋰生產線也迅速恢復到正常運營水平。我們定期討論一項業務,由於對共享基礎設施的影響,可能需要額外幾個月的時間才能恢復生產,這就是高純度鋰金屬。然而,從盈利貢獻的角度來看,該產品非常小。
Turning now to Livent's ongoing expansion efforts to allow meaningful volume growth for the company over the next few years. Beginning with hydroxide, towards the end of 2022, we completed a 5,000 metric ton expansion in Bessemer City, bringing total capacity at the site to 15,000 metric tons of hydroxide. The new unit has been producing initial material while getting qualified with relevant customers, although we do not expect meaningful volumes until our first carbonate expansion phase in Argentina ramps up in the next few months as this will be used as feedstock for the unit.
現在談談 Livent 正在進行的擴張工作,以便在未來幾年內為公司帶來有意義的銷量增長。從氫氧化物開始,到 2022 年底,我們在貝塞默城完成了 5,000 噸的擴建,使該地點的氫氧化物總產能達到 15,000 噸。新裝置一直在生產初始材料,同時獲得相關客戶的認可,儘管我們預計在阿根廷的第一個碳酸鹽擴張階段在未來幾個月內啟動之前不會產生有意義的產量,因為這將用作該裝置的原料。
Construction also continues to progress well on a 15,000 metric ton lithium hydroxide facility at a new location in the province of Zhejiang in China and is on track for completion by year-end. First, commercial volumes from this unit are expected in 2024, and it will double our capacity in the country while taking our total global lithium hydroxide capacity to 45,000 metric tons. In Argentina, work continues to progress on our 2 equal 10,000 metric ton phases of lithium carbonate expansion. Having recently completed our first phase, we are now in the commissioning stage of bringing online this first 10,000 metric tons of production. We expect first product to be generated in the third quarter with a ramp-up to commercial quantities of carbonate in the fourth quarter. We expect to complete our second 10,000 metric ton phase in Argentina before the end of 2023. This will result in our nameplate lithium carbonate capacity being double that of 2022, approaching 40,000 metric tons. It will also have us largely balanced between lithium hydroxide capacity and our carbonate production capabilities to feed it.
位於中國浙江省新地點的 15,000 噸氫氧化鋰工廠的建設也繼續順利進行,預計將於年底完工。首先,預計該裝置的商業產量將於 2024 年實現,這將使我們在該國的產能增加一倍,同時使我們的全球氫氧化鋰總產能達到 45,000 噸。在阿根廷,我們的兩期碳酸鋰產能均達到 10,000 噸的擴建工作仍在繼續取得進展。我們最近完成了第一階段工作,目前正處於投產第一批 10,000 噸產品的調試階段。我們預計第一批產品將在第三季度生產,碳酸鹽的商業數量將在第四季度增加。我們預計在 2023 年底前完成在阿根廷的第二個 10,000 公噸階段。這將使我們的碳酸鋰銘牌產能達到 2022 年的兩倍,接近 40,000 公噸。它還將使我們在氫氧化鋰產能和碳酸鋰生產能力之間保持基本平衡。
I'd like to spend a little bit of time talking about Nemaska Lithium on Slide 7. As a reminder, Nemaska Lithium is an integrated 34,000 metric ton lithium hydroxide project located in Quebec, Canada, in which Livent is a 50% shareholder.
我想花一點時間在幻燈片 7 上討論 Nemaska Lithium。提醒一下,Nemaska Lithium 是一個位於加拿大魁北克省的 34,000 噸氫氧化鋰綜合項目,Livent 持有該項目 50% 的股份。
Earlier this year, after completing the detailed engineering phase and receiving approval from the Nemaska Board, the project entered its current construction phase, which includes the acceleration of mining operations at Whabouchi. Commercial production and sales of spodumene concentrate are expected to begin in 2025 and will continue until the hydroxide facility comes into full production. Initial production of lithium hydroxide is expected in 2026.
今年早些時候,在完成詳細工程階段並獲得內馬斯卡董事會批准後,該項目進入當前的建設階段,其中包括加速 Whabouchi 的採礦作業。鋰輝石精礦的商業生產和銷售預計將於 2025 年開始,並將持續到氫氧化物工廠全面投產。氫氧化鋰預計將於 2026 年開始生產。
Total capital requirements for project development are estimated to be approximately USD 1.6 billion, with the upstream Whabouchi development comprising roughly $400 million of that total amount. We anticipate the majority of this capital to be spent in 2024 and 2025. Project operating costs on a fully integrated basis are expected to be very competitive with other comparable lithium production assets.
項目開發的總資本需求估計約為 16 億美元,其中上游 Whabouchi 開發項目約佔總金額的 4 億美元。我們預計大部分資本將在 2024 年和 2025 年支出。完全整合的項目運營成本預計與其他可比鋰生產資產相比非常具有競爭力。
The Nemaska Lithium project continues to be highly attractive due to its relative cost position, strategic location in North America and first mover advantage for hydroxide in the region and its favorable sustainability profile with access to low carbon hydroelectric energy. Sources of funding for project development are expected to include a combination of prepayments from customers, various sources of government funding, third-party debt financing and contributions from Nemaska Lithium's two current shareholders, Livent and Investissement Quebec. At this time, Livent does not expect its own funding contributions for the project development to exceed 10% to 15% of total needs, and these capital contributions will not all be delivered upfront. This level of funding is consistent with the press release made by IQ last month, where they highlighted a commitment of CAD 250 million in capital to help fund the project, which will also be contributed over time as needed.
Nemaska 鋰項目由於其相對成本地位、在北美的戰略位置、該地區氫氧化物的先發優勢以及其良好的可持續發展狀況以及獲得低碳水力發電的優勢,仍然極具吸引力。項目開發的資金來源預計包括客戶預付款、各種政府資金來源、第三方債務融資以及 Nemaska Lithium 的兩個當前股東 Livent 和 Investissement Quebec 的捐款。目前,Livent 預計自己對項目開發的資金貢獻不會超過總需求的 10% 至 15%,並且這些資金貢獻不會全部提前交付。這一資金水平與 IQ 上個月發布的新聞稿一致,他們在新聞稿中強調了 2.5 億加元的資金承諾,以幫助資助該項目,並將根據需要隨著時間的推移提供資金。
After Livent was appointed to engage in the sales and marketing efforts on its behalf, Nemaska Lithium announced its first customer agreement with Ford in May. The agreement calls for the delivery of up to 13,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide per year over an 11-year period, with the sale of spodumene concentrate from the Whabouchi mine to Ford until lithium hydroxide production is ready and back in work. Both companies and Livent are committed to supporting the development and growth of the North American battery supply chain and we are appreciative of Ford's strong commitment to the project.
在 Livent 被任命代表其從事銷售和營銷工作後,Nemaska Lithium 於 5 月宣布了與福特的第一份客戶協議。該協議要求在 11 年內每年交付最多 13,000 噸氫氧化鋰,並將 Whabouchi 礦的鋰輝石精礦出售給福特,直到氫氧化鋰生產準備就緒並重新投入生產。公司和 Livent 都致力於支持北美電池供應鏈的發展和增長,我們對福特對該項目的堅定承諾表示讚賞。
We've also mentioned in the past that there is additional land available at the (inaudible) to add future lithium chemical production with additional line expansions also likely to be quicker and more capital efficient. One of the main considerations to do this would be the ability to secure enough lithium feedstock material to feed the additional units on an integrated basis.
我們過去還提到過,(聽不清)還有額外的土地可用於增加未來的鋰化學品生產,額外的生產線擴建也可能會更快、資本效率更高。這樣做的主要考慮因素之一是能夠獲得足夠的鋰原料,以在綜合基礎上為額外的裝置提供原料。
I'd now like to spend some time highlighting Livent's pending merger of equals with Allkem that will create one of the leading global lithium chemical companies. For a much more in-depth review of the proposed transaction, I encourage you all to review the transcript from our prior call on the May 10 announcement day as well as the materials available on the Livent Investor Relations or the merger website. However, I would like to reiterate the extremely compelling strategic rationale for the transaction, which has only grown in the last few months.
現在我想花一些時間重點介紹 Livent 即將與 Allkem 進行的平等合併,該合併將創建全球領先的鋰化學公司之一。為了更深入地審查擬議交易,我鼓勵大家查看我們在 5 月 10 日公告日之前的電話會議記錄以及 Livent 投資者關係或合併網站上提供的材料。然而,我想重申該交易極其引人注目的戰略理由,該交易在過去幾個月中才有所增長。
The transaction delivers a step change in all of our critical objectives and the merits can be most easily summarized in the following 3 points. It greatly increases our scale, with an expanded geographic footprint and a combined lithium deposit base that ranks among the largest in the world, it immediately enhances our vertical integration, bringing together complementary businesses and areas of expertise that can deliver meaningful operating synergies and capital savings while both accelerating and derisking our development plans.
此次交易使我們所有的關鍵目標發生了重大變化,其優點可以最簡單地總結為以下三點。它極大地擴大了我們的規模,擴大了地理覆蓋範圍,並擁有世界上最大的聯合鋰礦床基地,它立即增強了我們的垂直整合,將互補的業務和專業領域結合在一起,可以帶來有意義的運營協同效應和資本節省同時加快我們的發展計劃並降低其風險。
And finally, both companies contribute highly attractive growth profiles in similar geographies that are truly unparalleled when combined. We expect the merger will enable us to unlock significant value creation for shareholders while enhancing our position within the lithium value chain and increasing our relevance to a global customer base. As you will see on Slide 9, both companies have been working diligently since the announcement to be in a position to close the transaction as quickly as feasible so that the NewCo can begin to deliver the various benefits.
最後,兩家公司在相似的地區都貢獻了極具吸引力的增長前景,合併後確實是無與倫比的。我們預計,此次合併將使我們能夠為股東創造重大價值,同時增強我們在鋰價值鏈中的地位,並提高我們與全球客戶群的相關性。正如您將在幻燈片 9 中看到的,自公告發布以來,兩家公司一直在努力工作,以便能夠盡快完成交易,以便新公司能夠開始提供各種好處。
Key milestones have continued to progress. All preclosing regulatory notifications and applications for draft filings as applicable have been filed in required jurisdictions by Livent and Allkem, including both antitrust and foreign direct investment. Additionally, the preliminary S-4 registration statement was filed with the SEC on July 20, which provides important information about Livent and the proposed combination. The NewCo Board nominees were also announced earlier this week. The NewCo Board will be comprised of 6 nominees from the current Livent board, including myself, and 6 nominees from the Allkem board, including Peter Coleman, who will serve as Chairman of the NewCo.
關鍵里程碑繼續取得進展。所有預交割監管通知和適用的草案備案申請均已由 Livent 和 Allkem 在規定的司法管轄區提交,包括反壟斷和外國直接投資。此外,初步 S-4 註冊聲明已於 7 月 20 日向 SEC 提交,其中提供了有關 Livent 和擬議合併的重要信息。新公司董事會提名人也於本週早些時候公佈。 NewCo 董事會將由當前 Livent 董事會的 6 名提名人(包括我自己)和 Allkem 董事會的 6 名提名人組成,其中包括將擔任 NewCo 主席的 Peter Coleman。
As far as key next steps are concerned, Allkem investors are waiting a scheme booklet for the proposed transaction, which is the Australian equivalent to the S-4 in simple terms. This scheme booklet, which will include the independent expert report is expected to be finalized and sent to investors early in the fourth quarter.
就接下來的關鍵步驟而言,Allkem 投資者正在等待擬議交易的計劃手冊,簡單來說,該交易相當於澳大利亞的 S-4。該計劃手冊將包括獨立專家報告,預計將於第四季度初完成並發送給投資者。
Once all relevant documentation is distributed and approved by the applicable regulators, each of Livent and Allkem will seek approval from their respective shareholders as special meetings expected to take place within a day of each other in the fourth quarter. Subject to positive votes as well as all other required approvals and closing conditions, which both parties believe can be achieved by the end of calendar year 2023, the transaction will move to closing.
一旦所有相關文件分發並獲得適用監管機構批准,Livent 和 Allkem 將尋求各自股東的批准,特別會議預計將在第四季度的一天內舉行。如果獲得贊成票以及所有其他所需的批准和成交條件(雙方認為可以在 2023 年底前實現),該交易將進入成交階段。
We're encouraged by all of the progress made to date by the positive feedback we've received from shareholders, customers and other stakeholders so far, and we look forward to keeping you updated as we reach critical milestones and have more information to share on various fronts related to the merger.
迄今為止,我們從股東、客戶和其他利益相關者那裡收到了積極的反饋,我們對迄今為止取得的所有進展感到鼓舞,我們期待在我們達到關鍵里程碑時向您通報最新情況,並分享更多信息與合併相關的各個方面。
I want to conclude on Slide 10 by providing some commentary around Livent's latest ESG efforts. Livent recently published its 2022 sustainability report with the theme of reimagining possibilities. It reflects the company's commitment to responsible production and expansion to an ongoing focus on environmental stewardship, social responsibility and transparency. Among the highlights of the report are an initial global Scope 3 screening of Livent's greenhouse gas emissions, first disclosures on global air pollutants and a summary of recent water and biodiversity studies that were conducted at the Salar del Hombre Muerto in Argentina alongside some of our key customers.
我想通過圍繞 Livent 最新的 ESG 工作提供一些評論來結束幻燈片 10。 Livent 最近發布了 2022 年可持續發展報告,主題為“重新構想可能性”。它反映了公司對負責任生產和擴張的承諾,以及對環境管理、社會責任和透明度的持續關注。該報告的亮點包括對Livent 溫室氣體排放進行的初步全球範圍3 篩查、首次披露全球空氣污染物,以及對近期在阿根廷Salar del Hombre Muerto 進行的水和生物多樣性研究以及我們的一些關鍵研究的總結。顧客。
Our report follows leading disclosure frameworks with key ESG metrics reviewed and assured by a third party. We will continue to prioritize corporate social responsibility within our operations, supply chain, workforce and communities and do our part with customers and partners to support a low-carbon future while minimizing environmental impacts.
我們的報告遵循領先的披露框架,其中關鍵 ESG 指標由第三方審核和保證。我們將繼續在我們的運營、供應鏈、員工和社區中優先考慮企業社會責任,並與客戶和合作夥伴一起盡我們的一份力量,支持低碳未來,同時最大限度地減少對環境的影響。
I will now turn the call back to Dan for questions.
現在我將把電話轉回給丹詢問問題。
Daniel Rosen - IR Manager
Daniel Rosen - IR Manager
Thank you, Paul. Josh, you may now begin the Q&A session.
謝謝你,保羅。喬希,您現在可以開始問答環節了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum with TD Cowen.
(操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自 David Deckelbaum 和 TD Cowen 的線路。
David Adam Deckelbaum - MD & Senior Analyst
David Adam Deckelbaum - MD & Senior Analyst
I appreciate the time this afternoon. And best of luck with the closing of the Allkem deal. I did want to just check in on Salar Hombre and see if I missed this, if you could just be explicit about how many volumes you're including in your updated guidance? I think previously the thought was that you'd see 4,000 tons contributed this year. With commercial sales in the fourth quarter, should we still -- should we be shading down towards 3,000 tons that's sort of implied in your guidance with some wiggle room there around I guess, some upside on timing? And should we still think about the same timeline for the Phase II process commissioning?
我很珍惜今天下午的時間。祝 Allkem 交易順利完成。我確實想檢查一下 Salar Hombre,看看我是否錯過了這一點,您能否明確說明您在更新的指南中包含了多少卷?我認為之前的想法是今年會貢獻 4,000 噸。隨著第四季度的商業銷售,我們是否應該——我們是否應該將產量減少到 3,000 噸,這在你們的指導中有所暗示,我猜還有一些迴旋餘地,在時間上有一些好處?我們是否還應該考慮同樣的二期工藝調試時間表?
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Good question, David. You're right. It's probably closer to 3,000 than 4,000 given where we are at the moment in terms of ability to drive commercial sales. So you can appreciate starting up these operations is a complicated process. And while I'm pretty happy with the progress that we've made so far, it's pretty difficult to predict within a couple of months as to exactly when you iron out all the kinks in the start-up. So it's around 3,000 tons is about the right number for the rest of this year.
是的。好問題,大衛。你說得對。考慮到我們目前推動商業銷售的能力,這個數字可能更接近 3,000,而不是 4,000。所以你可以體會到啟動這些操作是一個複雜的過程。雖然我對我們迄今為止所取得的進展感到非常滿意,但很難在幾個月內準確預測何時解決初創企業中的所有問題。因此,今年剩餘時間的產量約為 3,000 噸。
The second phase, look, I would really help the whole point of doing 2 phases is that we learn as we go. And so -- there's no doubt that we will be -- we already recognize how to accelerate the start-up for the next phase, and we'll be putting those plans in place. So I certainly expect that we will be bringing the second phase on from mechanical completion to commercial production quicker than we will in the first phase.
第二階段,看,我真的會幫助做兩個階段的重點是我們邊走邊學習。因此,毫無疑問,我們已經認識到如何加速下一階段的啟動,並且我們將落實這些計劃。因此,我當然希望我們能夠比第一階段更快地將第二階段從機械完工轉向商業生產。
David Adam Deckelbaum - MD & Senior Analyst
David Adam Deckelbaum - MD & Senior Analyst
My second is just -- I wanted to just clarify the comments you made where you -- it sounds like you anticipate Livent's net share of build-out at and Whabouchi and Bécancour under Nemaska to be roughly $160 million to $240 million. Sounds like the other financing might reimburse you for costs over time.
我的第二個問題是——我想澄清一下你的評論——聽起來你預計 Livent 在 Nemaska 領導下的 Whabouchi 和 Bécancour 擴建項目中所佔的淨份額約為 1.6 億至 2.4 億美元。聽起來其他融資可能會隨著時間的推移補償您的費用。
I just wanted to clarify that and then maybe get a sense of what we should anticipate in terms of timing when you think these solutions might be more publicly apparent?
我只是想澄清這一點,然後也許可以了解當您認為這些解決方案可能更加公開時,我們應該在時間方面預期什麼?
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Look, if you think about the financing, I'm going to break it into 4 buckets, right? Bucket #1 is customers contributing cash in advances to them on the Nemaska's commitment to them, their commitment back is to help with the financing to be perfectly honest. And that's something we certainly expect to be a part of the funding for Nemaska as we go forward.
是的。聽著,如果你考慮融資,我會把它分成 4 個部分,對嗎?第一桶是客戶根據 Nemaska 對他們的承諾向他們預支現金,他們的承諾是完全誠實地幫助融資。隨著我們的發展,我們當然希望成為 Nemaska 資金的一部分。
The second is what I'm loosely going to call government money, and I think it's a relatively new phenomenon in our industry that there is money available in various forms in various jurisdictions to help accelerate these investments. We create a lot of jobs, create a lot of revenue and having an integrated battery industry is pretty important in many areas, including in Quebec, Canada, broadly. So we certainly expect there to be some government capital.
第二個是我大致所說的政府資金,我認為這是我們行業中一個相對較新的現象,各個司法管轄區都有各種形式的資金來幫助加速這些投資。我們創造了大量的就業機會,創造了大量的收入,擁有一個一體化的電池行業在許多領域都非常重要,包括在加拿大魁北克省。因此,我們當然期望會有一些政府資本。
Then the good old fashioned is third-party debt financial built on the fact that if we're producing spod concentrate in 2025, we'll be cash flow positive -- revenue positive by then as if and in fact, at its own third-party financing, and the gap will be filled by investors contributing new equity, which is split equally between ourselves and IQ. You should expect as we go through the rest of this year and into next year as we get more certainty on each of those pieces, we'll disclose them with our earnings as we go.
然後,老式的第三方債務融資建立在這樣一個事實之上:如果我們在2025 年生產spod 精礦,我們的現金流將是正數——到那時收入將是正數,就好像而且事實上,在它自己的第三方——方融資,缺口將由投資者貢獻新股本來填補,新股本由我們和 IQ 平分。你應該預料到,隨著我們今年剩下的時間和明年,隨著我們對這些方面的每一個方面有了更多的確定性,我們將隨著我們的收益而披露它們。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.
您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的馬修·德約 (Matthew DeYoe)。
Matthew Porter DeYoe - VP
Matthew Porter DeYoe - VP
If I look at -- well, I don't know I hate to kind of ask you this. But if I look like the S-4 and some of the disclosures around the agreement with Allkem and the path laid out. And we get a lot of questions around some of the projections that were put out there and forecast for $1 billion of EBITDA in 2024 based on $25,000 or $35,000 a ton lithium hydroxide, et cetera. I mean it's well ahead of the consensus and perhaps some of the numbers that people were playing around with. So as it looks like from an OpEx perspective or from a contracting adjustment perspective. Is there anything there? Or is that just a difference in assumptions, I don't know.
如果我看——好吧,我不知道我討厭問你這個問題。但如果我看起來像 S-4 以及與 Allkem 的協議和所製定的路徑相關的一些披露。我們對一些預測提出了很多問題,並根據每噸氫氧化鋰 25,000 美元或 35,000 美元等預測 2024 年 EBITDA 為 10 億美元。我的意思是,它遠遠超出了共識,也許還超出了人們所討論的一些數字。從運營支出的角度或從合同調整的角度來看是這樣的。那裡有什麼嗎?或者這只是假設的差異,我不知道。
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Look, it's important to understand exactly what that is, right? When we're looking at mergers of equals, one of the first conversations we have to have is putting -- sensing both our business and Allkem's business onto a similar footing for a comparable analysis. And so the starting point was to agree a price deck. And that price deck doesn't necessarily have to be the prediction of Livent or the prediction of Allkem. I'm sure you can imagine, we have probably slightly different views in slightly different areas. It just needs to be a reasonable one that's based on market conditions at the time based upon a range of forecast by independent forecasters -- does not work completely crazy.
是的。看,準確理解那是什麼很重要,對吧?當我們考慮對等合併時,我們必須進行的首要對話之一就是將我們的業務和 Allkem 的業務置於相似的基礎上進行可比分析。因此,出發點是商定價格方案。該價格表不一定是 Livent 的預測或 Allkem 的預測。我相信你可以想像,我們在稍微不同的領域可能有稍微不同的觀點。它只需要是一個合理的預測,基於當時的市場狀況,基於獨立預測者的一系列預測,而不是完全瘋狂。
I think $35,000 a ton today certainly doesn't look completely crazy at the average price. And by the way, that price is for third-party uncontracted volumes, right? Doesn't include anything that we already have contracted or committed. So yes, maybe a little bit ahead of where consensus is, but it was designed to be a reasonable approximation of where we thought the market would likely be in 2024 and it doesn't seem a long way off.
我認為今天每噸 35,000 美元的價格按照平均價格來看顯然並不完全瘋狂。順便說一句,這個價格是針對第三方非簽約量的,對吧?不包括我們已經簽訂合同或承諾的任何內容。所以,是的,也許有點超前於共識,但它的設計目的是合理地近似我們認為 2024 年市場可能達到的水平,而且看起來並不遙遠。
Look, mathematically to get Livent to $1 billion of EBITDA is not that complicated. When you do the volume increase that we just talked about, when you see a step up in our average realized prices, which by the way, in 2020 we will not reach $35,000 per ton of hydroxide. And so it's not -- it's a particular heroic stretch to see $1 billion of EBITDA next year. That's not our forecast. The S-4 document doesn't represent Livent forecast and Allkem forecast. But certainly, I think those assumptions in there today at least still look pretty reasonable to me.
看起來,從數學角度來看,讓 Livent 的 EBITDA 達到 10 億美元並不那麼複雜。當你進行我們剛才談到的產量增加時,當你看到我們的平均實現價格上漲時,順便說一句,到 2020 年,我們將不會達到每噸氫氧化物 35,000 美元。所以事實並非如此——明年 EBITDA 達到 10 億美元是一個特別的英雄壯舉。這不是我們的預測。 S-4 文件不代表 Livent 預測和 Allkem 預測。但當然,我認為今天的這些假設至少在我看來仍然相當合理。
Matthew Porter DeYoe - VP
Matthew Porter DeYoe - VP
Understood. And I was a little late to join the call, so maybe I missed this a little bit, but the conversion facility, obviously, these numbers are perhaps a bit more normal these days as it relates to CapEx intensity and what we're looking at dealing with the West. But if you were to kind of highlight some of the big buckets for inflation between, I think, what was originally maybe $700 million for the downstream and now it's $1.2 billion, where you kind of ran into pockets of higher spending?
明白了。我參加電話會議有點晚了,所以也許我錯過了一點,但轉換設施,顯然,這些數字現在可能更正常一些,因為它與資本支出強度和我們正在考慮的內容有關與西方打交道。但如果你要強調一些通貨膨脹的大桶,我想,下游最初可能是 7 億美元,現在是 12 億美元,你在哪裡遇到了更高的支出?
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
And where do -- okay. Frankly, I'll make this comment as a broad one, but it certainly applies to a degree to Nemaska as well, which is I think there's a lot of learning in the engineering of these projects. I think a lot of people are overly simplifying the engineering and coming out with forecast before that engineering has been really fully vetted and tested. And we've seen some of the challenges of not fully engineering these projects, rushing to get them built more quickly.
去哪裡——好吧。坦率地說,我將作為一個廣泛的評論來發表這一評論,但這當然也適用於 Nemaska 的學位,我認為在這些項目的工程中可以學到很多東西。我認為很多人都過度簡化了工程,並在工程真正經過充分審查和測試之前就做出了預測。我們已經看到了未完全設計這些項目、急於加快建設速度所面臨的一些挑戰。
One thing there's people out there that just don't work because they were not engineered. And you can't retrofit them. So you have to get it right. I think some of the forecasts that were out there, I would tell the Nemaska forecast into this bucket, we're probably premature. I think the industry has a tendency to apply standard factors as to where we are in the engineering and what typically the eventual cost would be, plus or minus 50%, plus or minus 20%. They don't seem to apply that well to these projects. And part of that is this learning curve on the engineering, part of it has been some pretty significant increase in the cost of things like materials, particularly commodities that moved around steel and other commodities.
有一件事是,有些人無法工作,因為他們沒有經過設計。而且你無法改造它們。所以你必須做對。我認為現有的一些預測,我會把內馬斯卡的預測歸入這一桶中,我們可能還為時過早。我認為該行業傾向於應用標準因素來確定我們在工程中的位置以及最終成本通常是多少,正負 50%,正負 20%。他們似乎不太適用於這些項目。部分原因是工程上的學習曲線,部分原因是材料等成本的顯著增加,特別是圍繞鋼鐵和其他商品流通的商品。
There's certainly been an increase in the cost of certain key, we call them long lead items, but some of the engineered items that are frankly in so much demand, the producers of those can barely keep up. And as you can imagine in that scenario, the cost of them goes up.
某些關鍵產品的成本肯定有所增加,我們稱之為長周期產品,但坦率地說,一些工程產品的需求如此之大,這些產品的生產商幾乎無法跟上。正如您可以想像的那樣,在這種情況下,它們的成本會上升。
And then the final point is the cost of construction, and it's largely a function of time. I think what you see very quickly on these projects is the longer it takes you to build them, very quickly, the cost estimates go up. And it's a not insignificant factor is that projects that people might say take 2 years to build. If it takes 4 years to build it instead of 2, your costs are really going to escalate quickly. And so there is some of that at work as well. And these are not all specific comments on Nemaska. These are broad comments on I think if you look around our industry, the factors that have really driven the increased capital intensity, I don't see them coming down anytime soon. I don't see a learning curve benefit anytime soon or a reduction in some of these factors. I just think we're now starting to do a better job of understand and, therefore, describe what the real capital intensity of an integrated lithium project is.
最後一點是建設成本,它很大程度上是時間的函數。我認為你很快就會看到這些項目的建設時間越長,成本估算就會很快上升。一個不重要的因素是,人們可能會說項目需要兩年的時間才能建成。如果建造它需要 4 年而不是 2 年,那麼您的成本確實會迅速上升。因此,其中也有一些因素在起作用。這些並不是對 Nemaska 的全部具體評論。這些都是廣泛的評論,我認為如果你環顧我們的行業,真正推動資本密集度增加的因素,我認為它們不會很快下降。我認為學習曲線不會很快出現好處,也不會減少其中一些因素。我只是認為我們現在開始更好地理解並描述綜合鋰項目的真正資本強度。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho Securities.
您的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的克里斯托弗·帕金森 (Christopher Parkinson)。
Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst
Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst
Paul, I was just hoping you could give us a little bit more color. On Slide 7, you kind of have this helpful outlay of both the spodumene aspects of the Nemaska as well as the hydroxide plant. Just -- what's your degree of confidence in terms of the commercial production dates? What in terms of your own history in the industry, it kind of gives you the confidence to put those out there. And how we should be thinking about them? And what progress the investment community should be monitoring over the next year or 2 to further underscore those in their models?
保羅,我只是希望你能給我們多一點色彩。在幻燈片 7 上,您可以看到 Nemaska 的鋰輝石方面以及氫氧化物工廠的有用支出。只是——您對商業生產日期的信心有多大?就您自己在該行業的歷史而言,這讓您有信心將這些內容放在那裡。我們應該如何思考它們?投資界應該在未來一兩年內監測哪些進展,以進一步強調其模型中的這些進展?
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Chris. Look, I think the confidence is highest in block concentrate, much higher than it is in the timing of lithium hydroxide. Part of that is just simple, simple process and more advanced. And also, I'm obviously more confident on a 2025 date than a 2026 date.
謝謝,克里斯。看,我認為塊精礦的信心最高,遠高於氫氧化鋰的時機。其中一部分只是簡單的,簡單的過程和更先進的。而且,我對 2025 年的約會顯然比 2026 年的約會更有信心。
I think one of the key variables really to watch out for, for me at least, will be the mining we've got to get. We've got to get the mine up and running, and I think that will be pretty easy to monitor. And on the lithium hydroxide plant is actually getting it built and getting the commissioning starts of hard rock lithium hydroxide plants don't start up overnight. I think the commissioning process on that plant will be slower than it would be certainly on a carbonate hydroxide plant, which is relatively quick. And for us at least, slower than it will be on a brine-based carbonate plant, given the process that we use in the brine-based carbonate.
我認為真正值得關注的關鍵變量之一,至少對我來說,是我們必須獲得的採礦量。我們必須讓礦井啟動並運行,我認為這將很容易監控。氫氧化鋰工廠實際上正在建設中,並且硬岩氫氧化鋰工廠的調試啟動並不是一朝一夕就能啟動的。我認為該工廠的調試過程將比氫氧化碳工廠的調試過程慢,後者相對較快。至少對我們來說,考慮到我們在鹽水基碳酸鹽中使用的工藝,速度比鹽水基碳酸鹽工廠慢。
So my biggest uncertainty, frankly, on the lithium hydroxide plant is the pace at which we can start up. And it isn't just really take me 9 months or 12 months, it will also be how much can I produce during that start to process and what quality it is. So I think 2026 into 2027 is the key window when you need to be watching out for the success or otherwise of that project on the hydroxide side.
因此,坦率地說,我對氫氧化鋰工廠最大的不確定性是我們啟動的速度。這不僅僅是我需要 9 個月或 12 個月的時間,還包括在開始加工期間我能生產多少產品以及它的質量如何。因此,我認為 2026 年到 2027 年是關鍵窗口期,您需要密切關注氫氧化物方面該項目的成功與否。
Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst
Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst
Understood. And just a very quick follow-up, just coming back to the S-4 registration for Allkem. Just when we're taking a step back and just looking at the initial synergies and the kind of the integration process in the first 1 or 2 years, I'm sure you've done a lot of work on this since the deal was initially announced a few months ago.
明白了。只是一個非常快速的後續行動,剛剛回到 Allkem 的 S-4 註冊。就在我們退後一步,看看最初的協同效應以及頭一兩年的整合過程時,我相信自從交易最初以來,你們已經在這方面做了很多工作幾個月前宣布的。
Can you just kind of give us a quick update on your personal thought process on what needs to be done, what can be done, how quickly can be done as well as areas of potential upside, just the more you've been able to dive into the numbers?
您能否給我們快速介紹一下您個人的思考過程,包括需要做什麼、可以做什麼、多快可以完成以及潛在的優勢領域,只要您能夠深入研究即可到數字中?
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Look, I think there's 2 steps. I think the first and most important focus is what many of you'll recognize as sort of a day 1 readiness program. We need to sort of hit the ground the day it closes and be able to operate the 2 businesses as they currently are. And as part of that process, have a plan in place to tackle the cost savings, the more basic, if you will, cost savings, cost synergies that we've presented. And that work is advancing and I'm -- look, I'm very confident given the experience of both the Allkem management team given their previous merger and our management team, which while a separation is not exactly the same as many of the same processes that will tackle that pretty well. .
看,我認為有兩個步驟。我認為第一個也是最重要的焦點是你們中的許多人都會認識到的第一天準備計劃。我們需要在關閉之日就開始行動,並能夠按目前的方式運營這兩家公司。作為該過程的一部分,制定一個計劃來解決成本節約問題,如果您願意的話,可以考慮我們提出的更基本的成本節約和成本協同效應。這項工作正在取得進展,我——聽著,鑑於Allkem 管理團隊在之前的合併中所積累的經驗以及我們的管理團隊的經驗,我非常有信心,儘管分離與許多相同的管理團隊並不完全相同可以很好地解決這個問題的流程。 。
I think the second thing is to sort of take a long hard look at the business and make sure that we develop an operating model for the business that does not look like a hybrid. It has to be one that reflects the asset base and the operational capabilities of the 2 organizations. It takes a little bit more time, but it's probably got the biggest upside, too, I think running the business truly as a collection of integrated assets carries the most upside, and that's the area of my own personal focus in the period post-closing is how quickly do we move to a business that doesn't look like Livent and it doesn't look like Allkem and doesn't low like some kind of hybrid mix of the two. It looks like a truly new company, and it's being run the most efficient way relative to the asset base and the operating model.
我認為第二件事是對業務進行長期認真的審視,並確保我們為業務開發一種看起來不像混合體的運營模式。它必須能夠反映兩個組織的資產基礎和運營能力。這需要更多的時間,但它可能也有最大的好處,我認為真正將業務作為綜合資產的集合來運營具有最大的好處,這也是我個人在交易結束後期間關注的領域是我們要多快轉向一家看起來不像Livent、不像Allkem、也不像兩者混合的企業。它看起來像是一家真正的新公司,並且相對於資產基礎和運營模式而言,它正在以最有效的方式運營。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Kapsch with Loop Capital Markets.
您的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Chris Kapsch。
Christopher John Kapsch - MD
Christopher John Kapsch - MD
So I wanted to ask a question following up on -- Paul, on your commentary about when you're characterizing the market, talking about the structural tightness and there is an inference there that the battery grade chemicals are tighter, the inference being maybe that skewed more towards hydroxide versus carbonate, especially when you hear the discussion about the challenges associated with ramping a lithium hydroxide conversion just like you're talking about in the context of Nemaska.
所以我想問一個後續問題——保羅,關於你在描述市場特徵時的評論,談論結構的緊密性,並且有一個推論,電池級化學品更加嚴格,推論可能是這樣的與碳酸鹽相比,更傾向於氫氧化物,尤其是當您聽到關於提高氫氧化鋰轉化率相關挑戰的討論時,就像您在Nemaska 的背景下談論的那樣。
So -- then separately, you talked about how as you ramp your Argentina capacity that your intent right now is to kind of keep it balanced between converting downstream in the hydroxide and having that carbonate sort of optionality. So I'm just wondering if you could sort of reconcile that if the market is more tight and your customers are asking for more battery-grade hydroxide, maybe then wouldn't you be -- wouldn't that inform your sort of your road map in terms of capital allocation as you ramp your capacity?
那麼,您分別談到了當您提高阿根廷產能時,您現在的目的是在氫氧化物下游轉化和碳酸鹽選擇性之間保持平衡。所以我只是想知道你是否可以調和,如果市場更加緊張並且你的客戶要求更多的電池級氫氧化物,也許你不會 - 這不會告訴你你的道路類型嗎當您提高產能時,如何繪製資本配置圖?
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Livent -- stand-alone Livent has always been, as you know, focused on the hydroxide market. It's where we think we have the biggest competitive advantage, the most capability to add value and it fits our business model of building close customer relationships.
Livent——如您所知,獨立的 Livent 一直專注於氫氧化物市場。我們認為這是我們擁有最大競爭優勢、最具增值能力的領域,並且它符合我們建立密切客戶關係的業務模式。
Our historical approach to producing lithium hydroxide though interestingly does have this capability to a degree, swing between carbonate and hydroxide if the market demands. And that actually will be even more the case if we have 30,000 tons of capacity in China, which is incredibly low capital, low operating cost and frankly, doesn't have to be run all the time. And if there's opportunity in carbonate in the future, we'll certainly be able to take advantage of them.
有趣的是,我們歷史上生產氫氧化鋰的方法確實在一定程度上具有這種能力,如果市場需要,可以在碳酸鹽和氫氧化物之間切換。如果我們在中國擁有 3 萬噸產能,情況會更是如此,這是令人難以置信的低資本、低運營成本,而且坦率地說,不需要一直運行。如果未來碳酸鹽領域有機會,我們一定能夠利用它們。
But you're somewhat tempered in your ability to do that because to produce real high-quality lithium hydroxide that the customer is willing to commit to, they want a commitment from you that you're not just going to be speculatively moving in and out of the hydroxide market. And so we do see the hydroxide market is bringing more price stability. We do see the hydroxide market, and we've seen this certainly this year, but offering a meaningful premium of the carbonate most of the time. It doesn't mean the carbonate market is not quite capable of becoming incredibly tight and having some real price spikes that blow past hydroxide at times, absolutely will happen. Just don't see it as a long-run sustainable position to be.
但你對自己的能力有所限制,因為要生產出客戶願意承諾的真正高質量的氫氧化鋰,他們希望你做出承諾,表明你不會只是投機地進出。氫氧化物市場。因此,我們確實看到氫氧化物市場正在帶來更多的價格穩定性。我們確實看到了氫氧化物市場,今年我們確實看到了這一點,但大多數時候都提供了有意義的碳酸鹽溢價。這並不意味著碳酸鹽市場不太可能變得異常緊張,而且絕對會發生一些實際價格飆升,有時會超過氫氧化物。只是不要將其視為長期可持續的立場。
I also think there are opportunities, I think we can learn from people like Allkem, who focused more on producing volume in these markets than necessarily worrying too much about it all being battery grade because there isn't always a massive price difference in carbonate between battery grade and non-battery grade. To be clear in hydroxide, there isn't really a market for non-battery grade hydroxide really not of any scale. So it's got to be battery grade or nothing, but -- these are all the factors that we continue to think about, including, by the way, through the metals chains, as I'm sure you know by starting with chloride, we have that other branch, we can head down and produce chloride-based chemicals as well, metals and others.
我還認為有機會,我認為我們可以向像阿爾肯這樣的人學習,他們更關注這些市場的產量,而不是過分擔心電池級,因為之間的碳酸鹽並不總是存在巨大的價格差異。電池級和非電池級。需要明確的是,在氫氧化物方面,非電池級氫氧化物實際上並不存在任何規模的市場。所以它必須是電池級的,或者什麼都不是,但是——這些都是我們繼續考慮的因素,包括,順便說一句,通過金屬鏈,我相信你知道從氯化物開始,我們有在另一個分支中,我們還可以生產氯化物化學品、金屬和其他化學品。
And so I think this is just going to become in the future, Chris, an increasingly complex operating model. And I think it's -- which is a good thing because I think it really reflects the fact that there's opportunities for us to be constantly optimizing our profitability per LCE while at the same time, having a differentiated footprint in what we think will be the highest value market, which is lithium hydroxide.
所以我認為,克里斯,這在未來將會成為一個日益複雜的運營模式。我認為這是一件好事,因為我認為這確實反映了這樣一個事實:我們有機會不斷優化每個 LCE 的盈利能力,同時在我們認為最高的領域擁有差異化的足跡價值市場,就是氫氧化鋰。
Christopher John Kapsch - MD
Christopher John Kapsch - MD
That's helpful color. I appreciate it. And then just to follow up on that, though, is the engagement with your customers. Just curious if it feels like that the demand curves in Asia are skewed towards carbonate and in North America, the -- like, for example, the engagement with Ford skewed to hydroxide? Or is that an oversimplification? Do you think they'll be a bifurcation in that direction or not necessarily?
這是有用的顏色。我很感激。不過,接下來就是與客戶的互動。只是好奇是否感覺亞洲的需求曲線偏向碳酸鹽,而在北美,例如與福特的合作偏向氫氧化物?或者這過於簡單化了?您認為它們會朝這個方向出現分歧嗎?或者不一定?
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
I think the engagement with the major OEMs is very much hydroxide-driven, right, because I think they see that as the area that requires the most involvement by them to make sure that they have reliable, secure supply chains. I think they have a little bit more confidence that carbonate will be available for their carbonate-based batteries and to be clear, all of them have both high and low nickel battery models out there and running.
我認為與主要原始設備製造商的合作很大程度上是由氫氧化物驅動的,對吧,因為我認為他們認為這是最需要他們參與的領域,以確保他們擁有可靠、安全的供應鏈。我認為他們對碳酸鹽可用於他們的碳酸鹽電池更有信心,並且要明確的是,所有這些公司都有高鎳和低鎳電池模型並正在運行。
I think in terms of by region, it's a little bit more complicated because I think a lot of the really high nickel and quality capital plans are in Korea and Japan, but there's still a lot in China too. I think a lot of the carbonate-based low nickel are all in China, frankly. So you sort of have this weird dynamic that if you're taking carbonate into a battery chain, it's almost certainly going into China. But hydroxide does actually have more places that it can be processed into the high nickel applications.
我認為就地區而言,情況有點複雜,因為我認為很多真正高鎳和優質的資本計劃都在韓國和日本,但中國也有很多。坦率地說,我認為很多碳酸鹽低鎳都在中國。所以你有一種奇怪的動態,如果你將碳酸鹽納入電池鏈,它幾乎肯定會進入中國。但氫氧化物實際上確實有更多地方可以加工成高鎳應用。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.
您的下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Kevin McCarthy。
Kevin William McCarthy - Partner
Kevin William McCarthy - Partner
Would you provide an update as to the percentage of your lithium hydroxide business that you've entered fixed price contracts for 2023 and also 2024, if you would.
如果願意的話,您能否提供有關您已簽訂 2023 年和 2024 年固定價格合同的氫氧化鋰業務百分比的最新信息。
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So as we've disclosed, about 70% of our lithium hydroxide this year is contracted and the price has been fixed for 2023. And 2024 pricing, the majority of that is still largely up for discussion with those customers. It almost certainly will be fixed for next year, but it will not be fixed at 2023 prices.
是的。正如我們所披露的,我們今年約 70% 的氫氧化鋰已簽訂合同,並且 2023 年的價格已確定。而 2024 年的定價,其中大部分仍在與這些客戶討論。幾乎肯定會在明年固定,但不會固定在 2023 年的價格。
Kevin William McCarthy - Partner
Kevin William McCarthy - Partner
Okay.
好的。
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
To be clear, Kevin, it's almost certainly going to be higher in 2024 than in 2023.
需要明確的是,Kevin,2024 年的數字幾乎肯定會高於 2023 年。
Kevin William McCarthy - Partner
Kevin William McCarthy - Partner
Very good. And then I wanted to ask about your capital expenditure plans or the profile beyond this year. Presumably, you have some spend rolling off in Argentina, and you've quantified some of the cash that you expect to expend for Nemaska. If you kind of net all that out, do you think your '24 budget would be likely to trend flat, up or down versus this year's range?
非常好。然後我想問一下你們今年以後的資本支出計劃或概況。據推測,您在阿根廷有一些支出,並且您已經量化了預計為 Nemaska 支出的一些現金。如果你把所有這些都算出來,你認為你的 24 年預算與今年的範圍相比會持平、上升還是下降?
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Well, the first thing I would say is I feel like spending Nemaska trends up in Argentina. In case we were placed by another set of spending, we have at least 2 or 3 more phases to build in Argentina. So yes, it's one phase ends and another one rolls in. And while the next phases tend to be more capital efficient because they take advantage of the infrastructure, they're going to be bigger. So the capital need is still not massively diminished.
嗯,我要說的第一件事是,我覺得阿根廷的 Nemaska 趨勢正在上升。如果我們被另一組支出安排,我們在阿根廷至少還有兩到三個階段要建設。所以,是的,一個階段結束了,另一個階段開始了。雖然下一階段由於利用基礎設施而往往資本效率更高,但規模將會更大。因此,資本需求仍未大幅減少。
Excluding Nemaska, I think we expect capital requirements in next year to be sort of largely flat with this year and probably the same going into 2025 as well. And then there'll be Nemaska's spending on top of that. So I think in aggregate, we'll see the capital spend across both Argentina and Nemaska together, probably slightly higher than we saw in 2022 and 2023. Now that could change if we had more lithium hydroxide plants, which is entirely possible.
不包括 Nemaska,我認為我們預計明年的資本要求將與今年基本持平,並且到 2025 年也可能如此。除此之外還有內馬斯卡的支出。因此,我認為總的來說,我們將看到阿根廷和內馬斯卡的資本支出加起來,可能略高於2022 年和2023 年的水平。現在,如果我們擁有更多的氫氧化鋰工廠,這種情況可能會改變,這是完全有可能的。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。
Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst
Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst
Paul, you made a comment that there's probably more rationale behind the Allkem deal now over the last few months. Could you elaborate what you meant by that comment?
保羅,你評論說,在過去的幾個月裡,阿爾肯交易背後可能有更多的理由。您能詳細說明一下您的評論的含義嗎?
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Look, I just -- I think the need for us to be large and credible with customers has definitely been reaffirmed by our conversations with customers and how they are looking for more reliable supply and supportive of anything that helps them have more choices, more options and more material available to them to support their business models.
是的。聽著,我只是 - 我認為我們與客戶的對話肯定重申了我們對客戶的規模和可信度的需要,以及他們如何尋求更可靠的供應和支持任何有助於他們有更多選擇的東西他們可以使用更多材料來支持他們的商業模式。
And I think we can also start to see, as we start to dig in a little more closely, opportunities across our asset base to integrate them more closely, not just the capital but also integrate the operations and the commercial strategy for us a wider, more dispersed set of products that we can produce and offer. So I think it's like anything, you sort of see the logic. You do your arms let dance. Once you can actually start to do a lot more detailed planning it's starting to play out and show us that there's really quite a lot there to be shop for and to benefit from as we put these 2 companies together.
我認為,當我們開始更深入地挖掘時,我們也可以開始看到我們的資產基礎上有機會更緊密地整合它們,不僅是資本,而且還為我們更廣泛地整合運營和商業戰略,我們可以生產和提供更分散的產品組合。所以我認為這就像任何事情一樣,你可以看到其中的邏輯。你讓你的手臂跳舞。一旦你真正開始做更詳細的規劃,它就開始發揮作用,並向我們展示,當我們將這兩家公司放在一起時,確實有很多東西值得購買並從中受益。
Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst
Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst
Okay. Makes sense. And then on your first 10-kiloton expansion in Argentina, should we assume it's running close to full rates next year or there's a longer ramp?
好的。說得通。然後,在阿根廷的首次 10 噸級擴建中,我們是否應該假設明年將接近滿負荷運行,或者有更長的坡道?
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
No, no. It's a reasonably quick ramp, particularly simply in the summertime down there. So you should assume that that's running at full rates next year. Yes.
不,不。這是一個相當快的坡道,尤其是在夏天。所以你應該假設明年會全速運行。是的。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.
您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的喬爾·傑克遜 (Joel Jackson)。
Joel Jackson - MD & Senior Analyst
Joel Jackson - MD & Senior Analyst
Paul, a couple of questions. Just following up on the S-4 question, some of the projections that you put into that. And I understand the presentation for certain purposes. I just wanted to ask about the 2024 projection for Livent. I think it was about $1 billion EBITDA.
保羅,有幾個問題。只是跟進 S-4 問題,您對此做出的一些預測。我理解演示文稿是出於某些目的。我只是想問一下 Livent 2024 年的預測。我認為 EBITDA 約為 10 億美元。
Could you just tell me, is the rationale there to show like the best-case scenario? You gave the pricing deck. So we know that is -- I think it was '25 hydroxide and '22 carbon, if I recall. But is that where you assume all your capacities running full out, including your current hydroxide expansion and your carbonate expansion in Argentina, everything ramps up day 1, boom, 100% day 1. Is it like the most idealized production scenario? Could you just give some sense of what that $1 billion means?
您能否告訴我,其理由是否與最好的情況類似?你給出了定價表。所以我們知道,如果我沒記錯的話,我認為它是“25 氫氧化物”和“22 碳”。但是,如果您假設所有產能都滿負荷運轉,包括目前在阿根廷的氫氧化物擴張和碳酸鹽擴張,那麼一切都會在第一天開始,繁榮,100% 第一天。這是否像最理想化的生產場景?您能簡單解釋一下這 10 億美元意味著什麼嗎?
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
No. Look, it's not an idealized or anything. I think it's designed to be a representative model, not a forecast but a representative model. To be that, it has to have realistic estimates of when production would come online, what kind of volume it would be, what form it would be in hydroxide or carbonate just as much as it needs to be at least a reasonable, justifiable and defensible pricing forecast. So it's certainly not what I would call an overly simplistic desktop model that you just apply math to, it actually does reflect when the model was produced, what our best estimates would be of the production profile of Livent in 2024.
不,看,這不是一個理想化的東西。我認為它被設計成一個代表性模型,不是預測而是代表性模型。為此,它必須對生產何時上線、產量是多少、氫氧化物或碳酸鹽的形式有現實的估計,至少需要是合理的、正當的和可辯護的。定價預測。因此,這當然不是我所說的僅應用數學的過於簡單化的桌面模型,它實際上反映了模型的生產時間,以及我們對 2024 年 Livent 生產概況的最佳估計。
Joel Jackson - MD & Senior Analyst
Joel Jackson - MD & Senior Analyst
So my next question is, so it's interesting you're able to hold your full year guidance range, exactly the same. In the last 3 months, we've seen obviously quite volatile pricing but you've seen carbonate and hydroxide prices move up a fair bit from April to June and start to roll lower.
所以我的下一個問題是,有趣的是,您能夠保持全年指導範圍完全相同。在過去 3 個月中,我們看到價格明顯波動很大,但碳酸鹽和氫氧化物的價格從 4 月到 6 月大幅上漲,然後開始下跌。
And I know you've got a lot of fixed pricing this year, the majority of your volume. But it's interesting that you didn't have to change your range at all. Can you just talk about that just about all the volatility in price. You weren't -- you didn't have to -- your range is exactly the same.
我知道你們今年有很多固定定價,佔你們銷量的大部分。但有趣的是你根本不需要改變你的範圍。您能談談價格的所有波動嗎?你不是——你不必——你的範圍是完全相同的。
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
Paul W. Graves - President, CEO & Director
So look, I'd like to think that we're not completely blind to what might happen in the market. And while no one can predict it perfectly. I think directionally, we are not too bad at predicting what we think is going to happen in the market.
所以,我想我們並不是對市場上可能發生的事情完全視而不見。儘管沒有人能夠完美地預測它。我認為,從方向上來說,我們在預測市場上將發生什麼方面還算不錯。
If you actually follow what the logical flow behind what we've assumed in there and you look at what our EBITDA is for the first half of the year and then what the assumption might be for the second half of the year, given we have an expectation of more volumes coming in in Q4, you can see that we've factored in what we think the pricing environment is in fact going to look like. It's not -- we've never claimed -- we don't take a Q4 price deck it in the model for the following 4 quarters and use that as our guidance. Didn't take a Q1 price deck and so on and so forth. We do look forward -- we look at our customer mix. Our customer mix by quarter can vary meaningfully. We have a lot of predictability because of where we know pricing is in those hydroxide contracts and in our (inaudible) and other specialties customer base.
如果你實際上遵循我們假設背後的邏輯流程,看看我們上半年的 EBITDA 是多少,然後假設我們下半年的假設是什麼,假設我們有預計第四季度會有更多銷量,您可以看到我們已經考慮了我們認為的定價環境實際上會是什麼樣子。這並不是——我們從未聲稱——我們不會將第四季度的價格納入接下來 4 個季度的模型中,並將其用作我們的指導。沒有採取第一季度的價格表等等。我們確實向前看——我們著眼於我們的客戶組合。我們每個季度的客戶結構可能會發生很大的變化。我們有很多可預測性,因為我們知道氫氧化物合同以及我們(聽不清)和其他專業客戶群的定價。
So we can probably more than most today, at least, will debate whether this survives many more years. But today, at least, we can have a reasonable degree of confidence as to what the sort of base profitability of our business is likely to be. Now you'll also recognize that we didn't change our guidance, but we didn't change the range either, right? And so we recognize with half the year left, the range is still as wide as it was before. And that is designed to at least capture some concept that there will be some variability in pricing, which while we're not linearly related to it, it will, of course, impact us if prices are significantly higher than the -- than our assumption is significantly lower. The price -- the guidance range is designed to help us capture that.
因此,我們至少可以比今天的大多數人更多地討論這種現像是否還能存在很多年。但至少今天,我們可以對我們業務的基本盈利能力有一定程度的信心。現在您還會認識到我們沒有改變我們的指導,但我們也沒有改變範圍,對嗎?因此,我們認識到,距離今年還剩半年,範圍仍然與之前一樣寬。這樣做的目的至少是為了捕捉一些概念,即定價會存在一些變化,雖然我們與它沒有線性相關,但如果價格明顯高於我們的假設,它當然會影響我們明顯較低。價格指導範圍旨在幫助我們抓住這一點。
Operator
Operator
Your last question comes from the line of Corinne Blanchard with Deutsche Bank.
你的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Corinne Blanchard。
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
Could you just help me or help us understand maybe the cost profile into 3Q and 4Q. I believe you had mentioned expecting a gross margin of 52% or 53% for the year. So just trying to understand when will the cost increase hit? Is it 3Q and 4Q or is it more towards the end of the year?
您能否幫助我或幫助我們了解第三季度和第四季度的成本概況。我相信您曾提到預計今年的毛利率為 52% 或 53%。那麼只是想了解成本何時會增加?是第三季度和第四季度還是接近年底?
Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer
Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer
Corinne, Gilberto here. So the cost increases that we're anticipating for the second half, again, as we are navigating through the year, and we are using more and more of newer raw materials, we have seen a lot of price increases in key raw materials was like soda ash and they're materializing more and more.
科琳娜,吉爾伯託在這裡。因此,我們預計下半年的成本會再次增加,隨著我們今年的發展,我們使用越來越多的新原材料,我們看到關鍵原材料的價格大幅上漲,就像純鹼,而且它們正在變得越來越多。
So for example, raw material like soda ash is going to be back equally Q3 and Q4, energy in Argentina, some labor costs in Argentina as well. When you think about ramp-up in costs as we're commissioning the plant, there might be more in Q3 and actually in Q4 as we ramp up the production, particularly in MDA in Argentina, where we're going to have a lot more costs.
例如,純鹼等原材料將在第三季度和第四季度同等程度地恢復,阿根廷的能源以及阿根廷的一些勞動力成本也將恢復。當你考慮到我們正在調試工廠時成本上升時,隨著我們提高產量,第三季度和實際上第四季度可能會有更多成本,特別是在阿根廷的 MDA,那裡我們將有更多成本。
So I will tell you that I think in Q3 we have a little bit more cost impact compared to Q4, but they're going to be certainly higher than we had in the first half of the year.
所以我會告訴你,我認為與第四季度相比,第三季度我們的成本影響更大一些,但肯定會高於上半年。
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. And just keeping up with numbers, but you had a significant adjustment, right? Like I think $19 million or so related to the transaction. How do we think about it for 3Q and 4Q? Was it just like a onetime off? Or would you have -- is there anything coming through?
好的。這很有幫助。只是跟上數字,但你進行了重大調整,對嗎?我認為大約 1900 萬美元與該交易相關。我們如何看待第三季度和第四季度?難道只是像一次休息一樣嗎?或者你會——有什麼事情發生嗎?
Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer
Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer
Actually, can you repeat the question? I'm not sure I understood the question.
事實上,你能重複一下這個問題嗎?我不確定我是否理解了這個問題。
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
Yes, the $19 million or $18.8 million transaction adjustment that you had for the EBITDA calculation. Is it just a onetime off for 3Q? Or should we expect more coming in 3Q or 4Q?
是的,您在 EBITDA 計算中進行了 1900 萬美元或 1880 萬美元的交易調整。第三季度只是一次性休息嗎?或者我們應該期待第三季度或第四季度出現更多情況?
Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer
Gilberto Antoniazzi - VP, CFO & Treasurer
There'll be more cost for the transaction come in Q3 and Q4 for sure. But those are excluded from our adjusted EBITDA as you probably know. But there will be more costs related to transaction for sure, particularly we initially start our integration effort with Allkem.
第三季度和第四季度的交易成本肯定會更高。但正如您可能知道的那樣,這些不包括在我們調整後的 EBITDA 中。但肯定會有更多與交易相關的成本,特別是我們最初開始與 Allkem 的整合工作。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions. I'll turn the call over to Daniel Rosen for closing remarks.
沒有其他問題了。我將把電話轉給丹尼爾·羅森(Daniel Rosen)做結束語。
Daniel Rosen - IR Manager
Daniel Rosen - IR Manager
Great. Thanks, Josh. That's all the time we have for the call today, but we will be available following to address any additional questions you may have. Thanks, everyone, and have a good evening.
偉大的。謝謝,喬什。今天的電話會議時間就到此為止,但我們將在接下來的時間裡解答您可能遇到的任何其他問題。謝謝大家,祝大家晚上愉快。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the Livent Corporation Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. Thank you.
Livent Corporation 2023 年第二季度收益發布電話會議至此結束。謝謝。