科林研發 (LRCX) 2012 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們先生們，美好的一天。

Thank you for standing by.

謝謝你的支持。

Welcome to the Lam Research Corporation September 2011 quarterly results conference call.

歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2011 年 9 月季度業績電話會議。

During today's presentation, all parties will be in a listen-only mode.

在今天的演講中，各方都將處於只聽模式。

Following the presentation, the conference will be opened for questions.

演講結束後，會議將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Shanye Hudson, Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係總監 Shanye Hudson。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Alicia.

謝謝你，艾麗西亞。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Lam Research Corporation's quarterly conference call.

大家下午好，歡迎來到 Lam Research Corporation 的季度電話會議。

With me today are Steve Newberry, Chief Executive Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board; Martin Anstice, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Ernie Maddock, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我在一起的是 Steve Newberry，首席執行官兼董事會副主席； Martin Anstice，總裁兼首席運營官；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Ernie Maddock。

Shortly, Ernie will discuss financial results for the September 2011 quarter.

很快，Ernie 將討論 2011 年 9 月季度的財務結果。

Steve will then share Lam's business outlook for the December 2011 quarter, before opening up the call for Q&A.

然後，Steve 將分享 Lam 對 2011 年 12 月季度的業務展望，然後開啟問答環節。

The press release detailing our financial results was distributed over the wire services shortly after 1 PM this afternoon, and is also available on our website at www.Lamresearch.com.

詳細介紹我們財務業績的新聞稿在今天下午 1 點後不久通過有線服務發布，也可在我們的網站 www.Lamresearch.com 上查閱。

Today's call contains certain forward-looking statements, including those related to our expectations of market size, GDP, consumer demand, customer spending and behavior, and the factors that influence those expectations.

今天的電話會議包含某些前瞻性陳述，包括與我們對市場規模、GDP、消費者需求、客戶支出和行為的預期以及影響這些預期的因素相關的陳述。

As well as our investment plans; our intentions for research and development activities; our contemplated tax rate; and our forecast of market share, shipments, revenues, expenses, margins, operating profits, collections, share repurchase activities, earnings per share and cash generation; as well as other statements of the Company's expectations, beliefs, and plans.

以及我們的投資計劃；我們的研發活動意圖；我們預期的稅率；以及我們對市場份額、出貨量、收入、費用、利潤率、營業利潤、收款、股票回購活動、每股收益和現金產生的預測；以及公司的期望、信念和計劃的其他陳述。

There are important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.

有一些重要因素可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中描述的結果存在重大差異。

And a list of those factors can be found in the slide package accompanying this conference call, and on our most recent Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

這些因素的列表可以在本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片中找到，也可以在我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格中找到。

All forward-looking statements are based on current information, and the Company assumes no obligation to update any of them.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於當前信息，公司不承擔更新其中任何內容的義務。

This call is scheduled to last until 3 PM, and we ask that you please limit questions to 1 per firm, with a brief follow-up.

此電話會議計劃持續到下午 3 點，我們要求您將每個公司的問題限制為 1 個，並進行簡短的跟進。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to you, Ernie.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給你，厄尼。

Thank you, Shanye.

謝謝山野。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

I'll comment on our September quarter results, which reflect performance within our guidance ranges for all financial measures.

我將評論我們 9 月季度的業績，這反映了我們所有財務指標的指導範圍內的表現。

For the quarter, shipments were $580 million, down 27% from the prior quarter, and in line with the midpoint of our guidance.

本季度出貨量為 5.8 億美元，比上一季度下降 27%，符合我們指引的中點。

Application and market segment breakdown for the quarter were as follows.

本季度的應用和細分市場細分如下。

Applications at 65 nanometer and below represented 95% of overall system shipments, while 90% of overall system shipments were for applications at 45 nanometer and below.

65 納米及以下的應用佔整個系統出貨量的 95%，而整個系統出貨量的 90% 用於 45 納米及以下的應用。

System shipments for NAND were 40% of overall system shipments, followed by DRAM at 13%, and other memory at 5%, making the total memory segment 58% of overall system shipments.

NAND 的系統出貨量佔整個系統出貨量的 40%，其次是 DRAM，佔 13%，其他內存佔 5%，使得整個內存部分佔整個系統出貨量的 58%。

Foundry shipments represented 24% of overall system shipments, and the remaining 18% were for logic and other.

代工出貨量佔整個系統出貨量的 24%，其餘 18% 用於邏輯和其他。

Revenues for the September quarter were approximately $680 million, down 10% sequentially, and above our guidance midpoint, with good performance across both systems and service products.

9 月季度的收入約為 6.8 億美元，環比下降 10%，高於我們的指導中點，系統和服務產品均表現良好。

Gross margin was 41.7% versus our guidance midpoint of 42%, attributable to product mix and lower factory utilization associated with business volumes.

毛利率為 41.7%，而我們的指導中點為 42%，這歸因於產品組合和與業務量相關的較低工廠利用率。

Gross margin for the June quarter was 45%.

6 月當季的毛利率為 45%。

Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $183 million, up $3 million from the June quarter, as we continue making the R&D investments that was discussed over the past few quarters.

非 GAAP 運營總支出為 1.83 億美元，比 6 月季度增加 300 萬美元，因為我們繼續進行過去幾個季度討論的研發投資。

We believe that these investments are critical in ensuring that we remain well-positioned, and we will sustain and increase these investments as appropriate to ensure that we're able to provide best-in-breed technology solutions to our customers over the upcoming technology inflections.

我們認為，這些投資對於確保我們保持有利地位至關重要，我們將酌情維持和增加這些投資，以確保我們能夠在即將到來的技術變革中為客戶提供同類最佳的技術解決方案.

Non-GAAP operating income was $101 million, which resulted in a non-GAAP operating margin of 14.9%, near the high end of our guidance range.

非 GAAP 營業收入為 1.01 億美元，非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 14.9%，接近我們指導範圍的高端。

During the September quarter, our non-GAAP tax rate was 19.6%, which was higher than the mid-teen rate we anticipated.

在 9 月季度，我們的非 GAAP 稅率為 19.6%，高於我們預期的中位數稅率。

The change in tax rate is driven by the current business outlook, and we currently expect a tax rate in the higher teens as we look to the December quarter.

稅率的變化是由當前的業務前景驅動的，我們目前預計，在我們展望 12 月季度時，稅率將處於較高水平。

Based on a share count of approximately 124 million shares, non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.63, in line with the midpoint of our guidance range.

基於約 1.24 億股的股票數量，非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.63 美元，符合我們指導範圍的中點。

Our EPS was favorably impacted by our operating results, and a reduced share count resulting from our share repurchase activity, and this favorability was offset by the higher tax rate.

我們的每股收益受到我們的經營業績的有利影響，以及我們的股票回購活動導致的股份數量減少，這種有利影響被更高的稅率所抵消。

On a GAAP basis, our earnings per share were $0.58.

根據 GAAP，我們的每股收益為 0.58 美元。

Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the September quarter with cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, of $2.2 billion.

談到資產負債表，我們在 9 月季度結束時擁有 22 億美元的現金和短期投資，包括受限制的現金。

Days outstanding for the quarter was 70 days, down 1 day from the June quarter, and inventory turns were 4.0, down from 4.2 in the June quarter.

本季度未償還天數為 70 天，比 6 月季度減少 1 天，庫存周轉率為 4.0，低於 6 月季度的 4.2。

Deferred revenue at the end of the quarter decreased from the June quarter to $180 million, and excludes $43 million of shipments to Japanese customers that will revenue in future quarters.

本季度末的遞延收入較 6 月季度下降至 1.8 億美元，不包括將在未來幾個季度產生收入的向日本客戶發貨的 4300 萬美元。

Equity compensation expense was $18 million, while depreciation and amortization was $21 million, and capital expenditures were $16 million.

股權補償費用為 1800 萬美元，折舊和攤銷費用為 2100 萬美元，資本支出為 1600 萬美元。

We ended the quarter with about 3,750 regular full-time employees.

本季度末，我們擁有約 3,750 名正式全職員工。

Our cash flows from operations were $87 million in the September quarter, representing 13% of total revenues, down from 26% of total revenues in the June quarter.

我們在 9 月季度的運營現金流為 8700 萬美元，佔總收入的 13%，低於 6 月季度佔總收入的 26%。

The differences were driven by lower business volumes and timing differences related to collection activities at certain customers, which we expect to be resolved in the December quarter.

造成差異的原因是業務量下降以及與某些客戶的收款活動相關的時間差異，我們預計這些問題將在 12 月季度得到解決。

Finally, during the quarter we repurchased approximately 2 million shares of our common stock, at an average price of $37.57 per share, for a total of $74.3 million.

最後，在本季度，我們以每股 37.57 美元的平均價格回購了大約 200 萬股普通股，總計 7430 萬美元。

As of the end of the September quarter, we had approximately $675 million remaining on the total authorization.

截至 9 月季度末，我們的總授權剩餘約 6.75 億美元。

Subsequent to the quarter end, we have repurchased approximately 2.6 million additional shares under one of the Company's structured repurchase programs.

本季度末，我們根據公司的一項結構性回購計劃回購了大約 260 萬股額外股份。

Adjusted for this subsequent purchase, approximately $575 million of the authorization remains for the Company's ongoing repurchase program.

針對此次後續購買進行調整後，約有 5.75 億美元的授權仍用於公司正在進行的回購計劃。

With that, I'll turn it over to Steve for his comments.

有了這個，我會把它交給史蒂夫徵求他的意見。

Thank you, Ernie.

謝謝你，厄尼。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。

Since our June quarter call, macroeconomic uncertainty has continued, including concerns over European debt issues, and ongoing struggles in the US with high unemployment and a growing budget deficit.

自我們 6 月季度電話會議以來，宏觀經濟的不確定性一直存在，包括對歐洲債務問題的擔憂，以及美國失業率高企和預算赤字不斷擴大的持續困境。

These and other factors have contributed to analysts now projecting 2011 global GDP in the range of 3%, down from 3.5% earlier this year.

這些因素和其他因素導致分析師目前預測 2011 年全球 GDP 增長 3%，低於今年早些時候的 3.5%。

The impact of this reduced GDP growth outlook on the electronics industry is evidenced by weaker consumer demand across a range of products, including digital TVs, game consoles, and in developed countries, consumer PCs.

GDP 增長前景放緩對電子行業的影響體現在消費者對一系列產品的需求疲軟，包括數字電視、遊戲機以及發達國家的消費 PC。

The impact of this economic uncertainty has caused corporations to manage capital budgets more closely, resulting in some slowing of the pace of growth for the PC refresh cycle, while the server market continues to maintain positive growth.

這種經濟不確定性的影響導致企業更嚴格地管理資本預算，導致 PC 更新周期的增長速度有所放緩，而服務器市場繼續保持正增長。

These dynamics are largely US- and European-oriented, and are offset by continued healthy demand for tablets and SmartPhones, and strong emerging market PC demand.

這些動態主要以美國和歐洲為導向，並被對平板電腦和智能手機的持續健康需求以及強勁的新興市場 PC 需求所抵消。

This overall demand environment creates reduced expectations for our electronics growth this year.

這種整體需求環境降低了我們今年電子產品增長的預期。

And current forecasts project 2011 IC unit growth in the low single digit range, with semi revenue expected to be in the $300 billion range, or essentially flat to slightly up versus 2010.

目前的預測預計 2011 年 IC 單位增長將處於較低的個位數範圍內，預計半導體收入將在 3000 億美元範圍內，或者與 2010 年基本持平或略有上升。

Looking to the IC segments, tablet and SmartPhone market demand has supported a relatively strong demand environment for NAND.

展望IC領域，平板電腦和智能手機市場需求支撐了對NAND的相對強勁的需求環境。

Our projections for 2011 NAND wafer fab equipment spend remains essentially unchanged, with a fair amount of spending driven by new capacity additions.

我們對 2011 年 NAND 晶圓廠設備支出的預測基本保持不變，相當一部分支出是由新增產能推動的。

While our customers remain optimistic about the long-term growth prospects for NAND demand, the pace of the capacity ramp has started to slow, as customers absorb the sizable amount of equipment already delivered, and adopt a more cautious short-term outlook.

儘管我們的客戶對 NAND 需求的長期增長前景保持樂觀，但隨著客戶吸收大量已交付的設備，並對短期前景採取更加謹慎的態度，產能增長的步伐已經開始放緩。

Based on our current view, we expect some shipments originally planned for the December quarter to extend out into 2012.

根據我們目前的看法，我們預計一些原計劃在 12 月季度發貨的產品將延續到 2012 年。

In the DRAM segment, bit growth forecasts have declined throughout the year, are now in the mid-40% range, down from 50% to 55% forecasted earlier in the year.

在 DRAM 領域，位增長預測全年都在下降，目前處於 40% 的中間範圍，低於今年早些時候預測的 50% 至 55%。

This decline is largely a function of slowing growth for corporate and retail desktop, and to a lesser extent, consumer notebook PCs in the developed world.

這種下降主要是由於企業和零售台式機增長放緩，其次是發達國家的消費類筆記本電腦。

DRAM suppliers are responding by either converting their existing capacity to technology nodes at or below the 4X level, or they are simply electing to take older capacity offline.

DRAM 供應商的回應是將現有產能轉換為 4 倍或以下的技術節點，或者他們只是選擇讓舊產能下線。

Accounting for all the capacity additions, conversions, and retirements, we project existing 2011 DRAM capacity, as measured in wafer output, to be roughly the same as that exiting in 2010.

考慮到所有產能增加、轉換和退役，我們預計 2011 年現有的 DRAM 產能（以晶圓產量衡量）與 2010 年的現有產能大致相同。

Based on current projections for DRAM pricing, the transition to the 3X technology node will be key to maintaining or achieving profitability for DRAM manufacturers.

根據目前對 DRAM 定價的預測，向 3X 技術節點的過渡將是 DRAM 製造商維持或實現盈利的關鍵。

And leading DRAM suppliers will start to move to the 2X technology node as fast as they can do it.

領先的 DRAM 供應商將開始盡可能快地轉向 2X 技術節點。

As we discussed on our June quarter call, leading edge foundry logic manufacturers have significantly slowed the pace of most of their capacity investments for the 4X nanometer node and above.

正如我們在 6 月季度電話會議上討論的那樣，領先的代工邏輯製造商已經顯著放慢了他們對 4X 納米節點及以上節點的大部分產能投資的步伐。

However, investments for the 32 and 28 nanometer nodes have clearly begun, which reflects our customers' confidence in their future demand for capacity needs at this node.

但是，32 和 28 納米節點的投資顯然已經開始，這反映了我們的客戶對該節點未來容量需求的信心。

Given these market dynamics, we are now forecasting 2011 wafer fab equipment spending of approximately $31 billion, plus or minus perhaps $1 billion.

鑑於這些市場動態，我們現在預測 2011 年晶圓廠設備支出約為 310 億美元，上下浮動可能為 10 億美元。

With first-half spending closer to a $35 billion or $36 billion run rate, the second-half run rate for 2011 is somewhere around a $25 billion to $26 billion run rate, or down about 27% to 28%, half over half.

隨著上半年支出接近 350 億美元或 360 億美元的運行率，2011 年下半年的運行率約為 250 億美元至 260 億美元，或下降約 27% 至 28%，一半以上。

Looking out into 2012, industry views for wafer fab equipment spend are within a range of down 5%, to down as much as 20%.

展望 2012 年，行業對晶圓廠設備支出的看法在下降 5% 到 20% 的範圍內。

While the macro environment will ultimately shape semiconductor demand and equipment spending, this range seems to be a reasonable estimate at this point in time.

雖然宏觀環境最終將影響半導體需求和設備支出，但目前這個範圍似乎是一個合理的估計。

As we have talked about during the course of this year, we believe that this is a critical time relative to making investments that ensure Lam Research is well-positioned for the future.

正如我們在今年所討論的那樣，我們認為這是進行投資以確保 Lam Research 為未來做好準備的關鍵時刻。

While very mindful of the current and potential future environment, we remain committed to making the strategic investments necessary to support our longer-term growth objectives.

在非常關注當前和潛在的未來環境的同時，我們仍然致力於進行必要的戰略投資，以支持我們的長期增長目標。

Examples of these investments include -- joint development programs with leading NAND suppliers to support the development of 3D device structures; heavy engagement with foundry logic manufacturers, including systems which are already installed for 20 nanometer and early 14 nanometer development; working closely with memory manufacturers as they explore next generation devices that address demands for increased memory density and performance.

這些投資的例子包括——與領先的 NAND 供應商聯合開發計劃以支持 3D 設備結構的開發；與晶圓代工邏輯製造商的大量接觸，包括已經安裝用於 20 納米和早期 14 納米開發的系統；與內存製造商密切合作，探索下一代設備以滿足對更高內存密度和性能的需求。

The development areas range from 3D architectures to new non-volatile technologies such as MRAM.

開發領域從 3D 架構到新的非易失性技術，如 MRAM。

And we are starting our investment in 400 millimeter new product development for both etch and clean.

我們開始投資開發 400 毫米的蝕刻和清潔新產品。

In each of these areas, customers are exploring multiple designs and materials as potential solution paths to overcome the significant technical hurdles required to bring these products to production.

在這些領域中的每一個領域，客戶都在探索多種設計和材料作為潛在的解決方案，以克服將這些產品投入生產所需的重大技術障礙。

These technology inflections represent opportunities for Lam to again deliver technically differentiated, high productivity solutions, and grow our market share.

這些技術變化為 Lam 提供了再次提供技術差異化、高生產力解決方案並擴大我們的市場份額的機會。

We are continuing to partner with our customers, and are making the necessary R&D investments to ensure that we are part of their ultimate solutions.

我們將繼續與客戶合作，並進行必要的研發投資，以確保我們成為他們最終解決方案的一部分。

With the economic, industry, and Company factors I've talked about in mind, our December quarter guidance is as follows.

考慮到我已經談到的經濟、行業和公司因素，我們的 12 月季度指導如下。

Shipments of $550 million, plus or minus $25 million.

出貨量為 5.5 億美元，上下浮動 2500 萬美元。

Revenues of $570 million, plus or minus $20 million.

收入為 5.7 億美元，上下浮動 2000 萬美元。

Gross margin at 40%, plus or minus 1%.

毛利率為 40%，正負 1%。

Operating profit at 7.5%, plus or minus 1%.

營業利潤為 7.5%，上下浮動 1%。

And earnings per share of $0.30, plus or minus $0.05, which is based on a share count of approximately 120 million shares.

每股收益為 0.30 美元，上下浮動 0.05 美元，這是基於大約 1.2 億股的股票數量計算得出的。

Finally, I'd like to say a few words about the announcement we made in early September that Martin Anstice, our President and COO, will be taking over as CEO of Lam Research effective January 1 of 2012.

最後，我想談談我們在 9 月初宣布的消息，即我們的總裁兼首席運營官 Martin Anstice 將於 2012 年 1 月 1 日接任 Lam Research 的首席執行官。

This Company, and I think by extension our employees, our customers, and also our shareholders, have benefited from ongoing, strong, stable leadership and Board guidance.

這家公司，我認為我們的員工、我們的客戶以及我們的股東都受益於持續、強大、穩定的領導和董事會指導。

This succession in my view continues that tradition.

在我看來，這次繼任延續了這一傳統。

For over a decade, Martin and I have worked closely together in his roles as CFO, and more recently as President and Chief Operating Officer.

十多年來，馬丁和我在擔任首席財務官以及最近擔任總裁兼首席運營官的職位上密切合作。

These experiences have prepared him well to take over the CEO role.

這些經歷為他接任首席執行官一職做好了充分準備。

He's played a formative role in the design and implementation of the business model, that over the years has propelled Lam Research to a position of financial, operational, and market share leadership in the wafer fab equipment industry.

他在商業模式的設計和實施方面發揮了重要作用，多年來推動 Lam Research 在晶圓廠設備行業的財務、運營和市場份額方面處於領先地位。

I have great confidence that under Martin's leadership, we will continue to execute to our long-term growth strategies, and successfully deliver the results needed and expected by our customers and shareholders.

我非常有信心，在 Martin 的領導下，我們將繼續執行我們的長期增長戰略，並成功交付客戶和股東需要和期望的結果。

Given that this is my last earnings call, I'd like to take a moment to express my sincere appreciation to our customers and suppliers.

鑑於這是我最後一次財報電話會議，我想花點時間向我們的客戶和供應商表示衷心的感謝。

It's been an honor and a privilege to have worked with all of you for over 31 years in our industry.

在我們的行業中與大家共事超過 31 年是我的榮幸。

Most importantly, I want to thank the employees of Lam Research, who, for my 14-plus years here, have been amazing in their support, commitment, and efforts in making Lam Research one of the premier companies in the semiconductor equipment industry.

最重要的是，我要感謝 Lam Research 的員工，在我在這裡的 14 年多時間裡，他們的支持、承諾和努力使 Lam Research 成為半導體設備行業的一流公司之一。

They are consistently recognized by our customers as the best in the industry, and I couldn't agree more.

他們一直被我們的客戶認為是業內最好的，我完全同意。

I would also like to thank and recognize the investment community for their continued support for Lam Research, and for myself personally.

我還要感謝並認可投資界對 Lam Research 以及我個人的持續支持。

I am grateful to have had the opportunity to work with you over the years, and I look forward to working with you in a slightly different way, when I move into my new role as Vice Chairman, January 1, 2012.

多年來，我很高興有機會與您共事，我期待著在 2012 年 1 月 1 日擔任副主席的新職務時，以一種略有不同的方式與您共事。

With these comments, let's open the call for questions.

帶著這些評論，讓我們開始提問。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝你，先生。

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session.

女士們，先生們，我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Patrick Ho, Stifel Nicolaus.

帕特里克·何，Stifel Nicolaus。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

And Steve, it's also been a privilege to have worked with you over these years, so best of luck in the new role going forward.

史蒂夫，這些年來與你共事也是一種榮幸，祝你在未來的新角色中好運。

And Martin, also good luck, on a going forward basis.

馬丁，也祝你好運，在前進的基礎上。

First question, in terms of the outlook for the December quarter shipments, can you give a little bit of color in terms of the application breakdown between memory, foundry and logic, and where you see strength, not only from December, but maybe on a going-forward basis into the March quarter?

第一個問題，就 12 月季度的出貨量前景而言，您能否就內存、代工和邏輯之間的應用細分以及您看到的實力，不僅從 12 月，而且可能在進入三月季度的前瞻性基礎？

Yes, I think certainly from the standpoint of any given quarter, we shouldn't really constitute it as a trend.

是的，我認為從任何給定季度的角度來看，我們不應該真正將其視為一種趨勢。

But specifically for us in the December quarter, we're going to see a greater set of shipments to foundry and logic, probably around 60% of our shipments.

但特別是在 12 月季度，我們將看到更多的代工和邏輯出貨量，可能占我們出貨量的 60% 左右。

As we go forward, I think we'll see memory really being closer to 50%.

隨著我們的前進，我認為我們會看到內存確實接近 50%。

I think that's pretty much how we see it in a $28 to $32 billion rolling 4-quarter spending environment.

我認為這幾乎就是我們在 28 至 320 億美元的滾動 4 季度支出環境中的看法。

It really is going to average out to about 50% memory and 50% logic.

它真的會平均到大約 50% 的內存和 50% 的邏輯。

For Lam, based on our market share positions in etch, as well as a slightly different profile for market share in clean, which is more -- slightly more logic- weighted than etch is.

對於 Lam，基於我們在蝕刻領域的市場份額地位，以及清潔領域略有不同的市場份額概況，後者比蝕刻更具邏輯權重。

Right.

正確的。

And maybe a bigger picture question for you, Steve, in terms of the EUV delays that they're experiencing in the industry right now.

就他們目前在行業中遇到的 EUV 延遲而言，史蒂夫，也許對你來說是一個更大的問題。

Can you just give a little more color in terms of the opportunities for Lam again, over the next couple of years as EUV is delayed, how it affects both etch and clean?

您能否再次就 Lam 的機會給出更多的顏色，在接下來的幾年中，隨著 EUV 的延遲，它如何影響蝕刻和清潔？

Certainly as it relates to etch, we'll see an extension of more application steps at double patterning.

當然，因為它與蝕刻有關，我們將在雙圖案化中看到更多應用步驟的擴展。

And also we see a lot of customers who are working to implement quadruple patterning, all of which will clearly provide for an expansion of etch market size and opportunity for Lam Research.

我們還看到許多客戶正在努力實施四重圖案化，所有這些顯然將為 Lam Research 擴大蝕刻市場規模和機會。

Quantifying that exactly is something that we're working on as we go through our annual planning process.

在我們進行年度規劃過程時，我們正在努力量化這一點。

And is something that we can probably articulate more next quarter, when we talk a little bit about what we want to do in 2012.

下個季度我們可能會更清楚地說明這一點，屆時我們會稍微討論一下我們想在 2012 年做什麼。

As it relates to clean, certainly as you have each application, there's a requirement for a post etch clean.

由於它與清潔有關，當然在您擁有每個應用程序時，都需要進行蝕刻後清潔。

And so there will be some additional expansion of the clean market, but the longer term trend for single wafer wet clean has been to consistently grow as a percentage of the total clean market, and as a percentage for wafer fab equipment.

因此，清潔市場將會有一些額外的擴張，但單晶圓濕法清潔的長期趨勢是持續增長，佔整個清潔市場的百分比，以及晶圓廠設備的百分比。

And I think that the push-out in EUV will help contribute to that to some degree.

我認為 EUV 的推出將在某種程度上有助於實現這一目標。

Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs.

吉姆科維羅，高盛。

Steve, thanks so much for taking my question.

史蒂夫，非常感謝你回答我的問題。

Let me add my congratulations.

讓我表示祝賀。

You've been absolutely unbelievable to us work with and driving the Company.

你對我們與公司的合作和推動公司的表現絕對令人難以置信。

So congratulations on a terrific job, and good luck in the new role.

祝賀你獲得一份出色的工作，並祝你在新職位上好運。

It seems like we're heading into a period here where we're going to focus much more on technology buying than capacity buying.

似乎我們正在進入一個時期，我們將更多地關注技術購買而不是容量購買。

And so I guess the first question is, some of the biggest customers in the industry like Intel, which I understand you don't have exposure to, talk a lot about how much equipment they reuse from one node to the next.

所以我想第一個問題是，行業中一些最大的客戶，比如英特爾，據我所知你沒有接觸過，他們經常談論他們從一個節點到下一個節點重複使用了多少設備。

I wonder if you could give us your perspective on, the rest of the industry's reuse, and especially as it relates to etch equipment?

我想知道您能否就該行業的其他再利用，尤其是與蝕刻設備相關的再利用，向我們發表您的看法？

And then second question, understanding it's going to be technology buys for a while here because your customers are struggling, and utilizations are already not that high, what segments do you think are most likely next in the pipeline for capacity buying?

然後是第二個問題，了解這將是一段時間的技術購買，因為您的客戶正在苦苦掙扎，而且利用率已經不高，您認為下一個最有可能購買容量的細分市場是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Most of the technology conversion activity has been in DRAM, and a significant amount in NAND.

大多數技術轉換活動都發生在 DRAM 中，並且有大量發生在 NAND 中。

And let me comment about those two segments first, and then we'll talk about conversions in foundry and logic, which exist to a much lesser extent.

讓我首先評論這兩個部分，然後我們將討論鑄造和邏輯中的轉換，它們的存在程度要小得多。

So our perspective for 2011 was that, with 75% bit growth in NAND, that there was probably around 550,000 wafer starts per month of conversions, and about 200,000 wafer starts of new capacity adds.

因此，我們對 2011 年的看法是，隨著 NAND 位增長 75%，每月可能有大約 550,000 個晶圓開始轉換，新產能增加約 200,000 個晶圓開始。

And that's important because for new capacity adds there's about $235 million spent for every 10,000 new wafer starts.

這很重要，因為對於新產能的增加，每 10,000 個新晶圓的啟動花費大約 2.35 億美元。

For a conversion, they only spend somewhere around $52 million.

對於轉換，他們只花費大約 5200 萬美元。

So the capital intensity is far less.

所以資本密集度要低得多。

We believe that if you average the 550 conversions and the 200 new, that capital intensity for 750,000 conversions in new was about $100 million for each 10,000 wafer starts per month.

我們認為，如果將 550 次轉換和 200 次新轉換平均，則每月每 10,000 片晶圓啟動的 750,000 次新轉換的資本強度約為 1 億美元。

And that's one of the reasons why you see capital intensity for NAND being low, or relatively low.

這就是為什麼您認為 NAND 的資本密集度較低或相對較低的原因之一。

If you go to DRAM, you have a situation where we ended up in a situation where bit growth was lower at 44%, and we only had about 60,000 of new wafer starts added, and a little over 400,000 of conversions.

如果你去 DRAM，你會遇到這樣一種情況，我們最終的比特增長率較低，為 44%，我們只增加了大約 60,000 片新晶圓，以及略高於 400,000 片的轉換。

So DRAM's more expensive.

所以 DRAM 更貴。

It's probably about $300 million for 10,000 new wafer starts, and $68 million for conversions.

啟動 10,000 個新晶圓可能需要 3 億美元，而轉換成本大約需要 6800 萬美元。

So we think when you take that mix, it was approximately about $100 million for 10,000 wafer starts, very similar to NAND.

所以我們認為，當你採用這種組合時，10,000 個晶圓啟動大約需要 1 億美元，這與 NAND 非常相似。

Except, of course, NAND converted and added a lot more total wafer starts, which resulted in a lot more money spent for NAND.

當然，除了 NAND 轉換並增加了更多的總晶圓啟動，這導致在 NAND 上花費了更多的錢。

When you go into 2012, just very quickly, we think DRAM is going to add maybe 40,000, maybe 50,000.

當你進入 2012 年時，很快，我們認為 DRAM 可能會增加 40,000，可能是 50,000。

It depends on bit growth.

這取決於位增長。

Forecasts for bit growth range 40%, to as low as I've seen numbers as low as 27%, 28%.

比特增長的預測範圍為 40%，低至我所看到的低至 27%、28% 的數字。

I think there will be more conversions in DRAM, because if DRAM manufacturers don't get down to the 3X node as quickly as possible in 2012, it's highly unlikely they're going to be able to be profitable, given the pricing per gigabit in DRAM.

我認為 DRAM 會有更多的轉換，因為如果 DRAM 製造商不在 2012 年盡快降到 3X 節點，考慮到每千兆比特的定價，他們不太可能盈利內存。

And so, I think the potential for somewhat modest increase in wafer fab equipment spending in 2012 for DRAM exists.

因此，我認為 2012 年用於 DRAM 的晶圓廠設備支出略微增加的可能性是存在的。

I don't think it will be more than maybe 10%.

我認為它不會超過 10%。

In NAND, for 2012, bit growth somewhere around 65% to 70% will result in probably a total of a similar amount of wafer start conversions at 500 to 550.

在 NAND 中，對於 2012 年，大約 65% 到 70% 的位增長可能會導致大約 500 到 550 的晶圓啟動轉換總數。

But probably somewhere around 125,000 to 150,000 of new wafer capacity added.

但可能增加了大約 125,000 到 150,000 片新晶圓產能。

And so when you take that situation, it's very well likely that NAND spending may be flat to even down 10%.

因此，當你考慮這種情況時，NAND 支出很可能持平甚至下降 10%。

Let's comment very quickly on foundry.

讓我們快速評論鑄造廠。

Conversions in foundry are relatively minimal.

鑄造廠的轉換相對較少。

There has been some as a function of low capacity utilization at 65.

有一些是 65 的低產能利用率的函數。

And so we did see this year a small amount of conversions, probably somewhere around 20,000 wafer starts, maybe 30,000 for foundry and logic combined.

所以我們今年確實看到了少量的轉換，可能大約有 20,000 個晶圓開始，可能有 30,000 個用於晶圓代工和邏輯。

When I look at where the spending is going to be next year, there's going to be probably a need for 70,000 wafer starts per month of new capacity at the 28, 32 nanometer node.

當我查看明年的支出情況時，可能需要在 28、32 納米節點上每月啟動 70,000 片晶圓的新產能。

And that's going to mean $1 billion for every 10,000 wafer starts.

這意味著每啟動 10,000 個晶圓就需要 10 億美元。

So there's about $7 billion there.

所以那里大約有70億美元。

Probably somewhere around 35,000 to 40,000 wafer starts in foundry and logic, that's still going to go into 40, 45.

大概大約有 35,000 到 40,000 片晶圓在代工廠和邏輯中開始，這仍然會進入 40、45。

But that will be at a much lower spending level, probably more like $700 million for 10,000 wafer starts.

但這將處於低得多的支出水平，可能更像是 10,000 個晶圓啟動所需的 7 億美元。

And then from a conversion standpoint, I think that we'll see some continued conversion where possible at 65 nanometer, where potentially we could see 50,000 to 65,000 wafer starts converted, which will keep some of the pressure down on the capital intensity.

然後從轉換的角度來看，我認為我們會在 65 納米處看到一些可能的持續轉換，我們可能會看到 50,000 到 65,000 片晶圓開始轉換，這將在一定程度上降低資本密集度的壓力。

But the reality is that I think foundry spending is likely to be very similar in 2012 to what we saw in 2011, potentially slightly up if we do see that the consumer demand for leading-edge high density SmartPhones.

但現實情況是，我認為 2012 年代工支出可能與我們在 2011 年看到的非常相似，如果我們確實看到消費者對尖端高密度智能手機的需求，可能會略有上升。

If we see tablet demand really stronger than maybe some of the forecasts are showing, foundry and logic are going to have to respond at the 28, 32 nanometer node.

如果我們看到平板電腦的需求真的比某些預測所顯示的更強勁，代工廠和邏輯將不得不在 28、32 納米節點上做出回應。

And that will certainly drive a strong amount of wafer fab equipment spending.

這肯定會推動大量的晶圓廠設備支出。

Stephen Chin, UBS.

Stephen Chin，瑞銀。

Hi, Steve.

嗨，史蒂夫。

Also my congratulations on your successful tenure.

我也祝賀你成功的任期。

Thanks for sharing your views on 2012.

感謝您分享您對 2012 年的看法。

I was also hoping that you could share your early thoughts on WFE trends in the first half of 2012 for the industry?

我也希望你能分享一下你對行業2012年上半年WFE趨勢的初步看法？

It does look like second-half WFE was down a little bit more than you originally thought.

看起來下半年 WFE 的跌幅確實比你原先想像的要多一些。

Just curious how Lam is preparing to manage the first half of 2012?

只是好奇 Lam 準備如何管理 2012 年上半年？

And then my follow up question is on the December shipment guidance.

然後我的後續問題是關於 12 月的裝運指南。

Did you mention the pushouts were mostly at the NAND flash customers?

您是否提到推出主要針對 NAND 閃存客戶？

And when do you think those NAND flash pushouts might be rescheduled for?

您認為這些 NAND 閃存的推出可能會重新安排在什麼時候？

I'll talk a little bit about question relative to December.

我將談談與 12 月相關的問題。

And then have Martin address what the plans are, and the thinking as relative to first half of 2012.

然後讓 Martin 說明計劃是什麼，以及與 2012 年上半年相關的想法。

Interestingly, when we sat here 3 months ago, when we looked at the December quarter, my comment was that we expected the December quarter shipments to be higher than September.

有趣的是，當我們 3 個月前坐在這裡查看 12 月季度時，我的評論是我們預計 12 月季度的出貨量將高於 9 月。

That was true all the way until the middle of September, when we saw some significant pushouts in the memory space, which was both NAND and DRAM.

直到 9 月中旬，情況一直如此，當時我們看到內存空間（NAND 和 DRAM）出現了一些重要的推出。

It was stronger pushouts in NAND, but it was also present in DRAM.

它是 NAND 中更強大的推出，但它也存在於 DRAM 中。

And then it was offset a little bit by some pull-ins in the logic foundry space.

然後它被邏輯代工領域的一些引入所抵消了一點。

And so the net is that instead of being up, our shipments are down 5%.

所以淨值是我們的出貨量沒有上升，而是下降了 5%。

I think that in the environment that we're in is consistent with what we've talked about.

我認為我們所處的環境與我們所談論的是一致的。

On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the ability to accurately forecast what's going to happen within a quarter is very difficult, given the concentration of customers, and the ability for customers to push $25 million, $50 million or more out of a quarter.

按季度計算，準確預測一個季度內將要發生的事情的能力非常困難，因為客戶非常集中，而且客戶有能力在一個季度內推銷 2500 萬、5000 萬美元或更多。

And when you talk about the next quarter out, in this case, March, in June, we can tell you what customers are saying they want us to do, but whether they'll actually execute that, I don't know.

當你談論下一個季度時，在這種情況下，三月，六月，我們可以告訴你客戶說他們希望我們做什麼，但他們是否會真正執行，我不知道。

So let's have Martin give you some perspectives of how he's thinking about the first half of 2012.

讓我們讓 Martin 談談他對 2012 年上半年的看法。

The first thing I would say is that perhaps stating the obvious, visibility for the Company is pretty low.

我要說的第一件事是，也許很明顯，公司的知名度很低。

And I don't think that's a new message.

我不認為這是一個新信息。

And to a very large extent, the types of things that really drive the answer to your question in terms of outlook are macro-related.

在很大程度上，就前景而言，真正推動問題答案的事物類型與宏觀相關。

As best I can tell, the emerging consensus around WFE is that it ranges between 5% and 20% down year-over-year.

據我所知，圍繞 WFE 的新興共識是它同比下降 5% 到 20%。

And Steve spoke to that in his prepared comments.

史蒂夫在他準備好的評論中談到了這一點。

Our thesis for the fundamental drivers of spending around content-rich SmartPhones, and the overall cell phone market shift to mobile computing, and the emergence of data centers and high speed connections, I mean that still plays out as a fairly prominent theme.

我們關於圍繞內容豐富的智能手機進行支出的基本驅動因素的論點，以及整個手機市場向移動計算的轉變，以及數據中心和高速連接的出現，我的意思是，這仍然是一個相當突出的主題。

Quite what that means precisely for the first half of next year or the March quarter, clearly, a bunch to still learn.

這對於明年上半年或 3 月季度來說恰恰意味著什麼，顯然，還有很多需要學習的地方。

I would say directionally -- and this is not a statement of guidance because it doesn't need to be and shouldn't be based on what we're learning from customers.

我會定向地說——這不是一份指導聲明，因為它不需要也不應該基於我們從客戶那裡學到的東西。

But directionally I would expect that it is more likely that our shipments in March are higher than they are in the December quarter guidance today, certainly more likely they'll be higher than flat or down.

但從方向上講，我預計我們 3 月份的出貨量更有可能高於今天 12 月季度的指導，當然更有可能高於持平或下降。

But as we know, lots can change in a pretty short period of time, evidenced by the fact that sequentially in September, our shipments declined by 27 percentage points.

但正如我們所知，很多事情可能會在很短的時間內發生變化，9 月份我們的出貨量環比下降了 27 個百分點就證明了這一點。

So there's clearly the potential there, and directionally the conclusion is the one I've just given you.

所以很明顯那裡有潛力，而且方向性的結論就是我剛剛給你的結論。

Relative to managing the Company, one of the most important messages is the one we have been communicating for some time, which is a commitment to invest in the long-term future of the Company.

與管理公司相關，最重要的信息之一是我們一段時間以來一直在傳達的信息，即投資於公司長期未來的承諾。

And that remains a prominent part of the decisions, we make on a day-to-day basis, and the implied guidance for operating expenses really doesn't speak to what we'll be exiting the quarter at.

這仍然是我們每天做出的決定的重要組成部分，而隱含的運營支出指導實際上並沒有說明我們將在本季度結束時的表現。

I would expect that by the time we get to the December months, we'll be run rating operating expenses closer to the $190 million level.

我預計到 12 月份時，我們的運營費用評級將接近 1.9 億美元。

And directionally I would expect that our March quarter operating expenses are some higher than December.

從方向上講，我預計我們 3 月季度的運營費用會比 12 月高一些。

But we're right in the middle of an important planning process, and we have some significant learnings ahead of us in the remaining months of this quarter, and we have some significant decisions to make as well.

但我們正處於一個重要的規劃過程的中間，在本季度的剩餘幾個月裡，我們有一些重要的經驗教訓，我們也有一些重要的決定需要做出。

So the directionality statements are made in that context.

因此，方向性陳述是在這種情況下做出的。

Ben Pang, Caris & Company.

Ben Pang, Caris & Company。

Let me add my congratulations as well.

讓我也表示祝賀。

Super informative call as usual.

像往常一樣超級信息電話。

Two quick questions.

兩個快速問題。

First, on the capital or the wafer fab equipment outlook you have for next year, between the high and the low point, do you think the key factor is foundry spending?

首先，關於明年的資本或晶圓廠設備前景，在高點和低點之間，您認為關鍵因素是代工支出嗎？

We didn't really define it, because what we talked about was directionally it's 5% to 20% down.

我們並沒有真正定義它，因為我們談論的是方向性的，它下降了 5% 到 20%。

So if we centered on 31, wafer fab equipment spending for 2011, 5% down puts you at 29.5; 20% down would take you all the way down to 25-ish.

因此，如果我們以 31 為中心，2011 年晶圓廠設備支出下降 5% 則為 29.5；下降 20% 會讓你一路下降到 25 左右。

I think that my expectations are that we're going to see probably somewhere around $12.5 billion in spending for memory.

我認為我的預期是我們可能會看到大約 125 億美元的內存支出。

I think microprocessor, which we classify now as Intel spending, we think is going to come down somewhere around the $4 billion level, a more normalized level of spending for Intel, after an accelerated expansion in 2011.

我認為我們現在歸類為英特爾支出的微處理器將下降到 40 億美元左右的水平，這是英特爾在 2011 年加速擴張後更為正常的支出水平。

And then logic foundry, I think being somewhere in the 10, 11 range.

然後是邏輯代工，我認為在 10、11 範圍內。

I think if the macroeconomic environment is stronger in 2012 than what some of the low-end GDP forecast of 2% to 2.5% are saying that, that will manifest itself in leading- edge product demand.

我認為，如果 2012 年的宏觀經濟環境比一些 2% 至 2.5% 的低端 GDP 預測要強，那將在前沿產品需求中體現出來。

That will result in the need for more wafer starts in logic foundry, which as we've talked about is very capital intensive.

這將導致邏輯代工廠需要更多晶圓，正如我們所討論的那樣，這是非常資本密集型的。

I do think that in memory, whether it's DRAM or NAND, spending will still be relatively muted because the conversion capability of even more 4X to 3X still exists in 2012.

我確實認為在內存方面，無論是 DRAM 還是 NAND，支出仍將相對低迷，因為 2012 年仍然存在 4X 到 3X 的轉換能力。

So I think that where the most upside is, is clearly in foundry and logic.

所以我認為最有利的地方顯然是代工和邏輯。

One real quick follow-on in terms of the OpEx.

就 OpEx 而言，這是一項真正的快速後續行動。

Is a lot of the increase that you are talking about going forward, is related to your comments around working on the next wafer size?

您所說的未來增長是否與您對下一個晶圓尺寸的評論有關？

No, it's actually not.

不，實際上不是。

There is an element of spending associated with our 450 millimeter programs, and that's been true for a little while, and Steve commented already again today.

有一個與我們的 450 毫米計劃相關的支出因素，這已經有一段時間了，史蒂夫今天已經再次發表評論。

A big part of the investment or the increase in the investment is a byproduct of a broad collection of technology inflections, and whether we're talking finFET transistor environments or 3-D memory, and next-generation memory.

投資的很大一部分或投資的增加是廣泛收集技術變化的副產品，無論我們是在談論 finFET 晶體管環境還是 3-D 內存，以及下一代內存。

There's a lot of decisions to be made by our customers.

我們的客戶需要做出很多決定。

And in that context if we're wise, we make a set of investments to position the Company to be successful, when those decisions are actually made.

在這種情況下，如果我們明智的話，我們會進行一系列投資以使公司在實際做出這些決定時取得成功。

And so, the increase is much more a byproduct of the success of the Company historically, and the cost to defend that success, and the opportunity to continue to grow and to make investments, in the context of a fair amount of uncertainty in the world of our customers from a technology perspective.

因此，在世界上存在相當大的不確定性的背景下，增長更多是公司歷史上成功的副產品，捍衛成功的成本，以及繼續增長和投資的機會我們的客戶從技術角度。

Krish Sankar, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林的克里什·桑卡爾 (Krish Sankar)。

Congrats on my behalf too, for such a spectacular career so far.

也代表我祝賀迄今為止如此出色的職業生涯。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

Number one, you said that mix the of foundries in December would increasing the shipments.

第一，你說 12 月份混合代工廠會增加出貨量。

Is it fair to assume that most of the increase is coming from single-wafer clean, or do you think it's evenly split between etch and clean?

假設大部分增長來自單晶圓清潔是否公平，或者您認為它在蝕刻和清潔之間平均分配？

I think that there's clearly a situation where etch is about 40% memory and 60% foundry.

我認為很明顯，蝕刻佔內存的 40%，代工佔 60%。

And clean is similar in that regard.

clean 在這方面是相似的。

On any given quarter, it can float around a little bit.

在任何給定的季度，它都可以浮動一點點。

In fact, for clean in the December quarter, they actually have closer to 48% or so in memory, and actually a little bit lower in logic.

事實上，對於 12 月季度的清潔，他們實際上在內存中接近 48% 左右，在邏輯上實際上略低一點。

But when you go forward, clean returns back to its normal trend, which for us is about 60% logic, 40% memory.

但是當你繼續前進時，clean 又回到了它的正常趨勢，這對我們來說大約是 60% 的邏輯，40% 的內存。

Etch is typically 50/50-ish, and our etch business is so much larger than our clean business that it pretty much dominates what the percentage mix is going to be for our entire system shipment mix.

蝕刻通常是 50/50-ish，我們的蝕刻業務比我們的清潔業務大得多，以至於它幾乎支配了我們整個系統出貨組合的百分比組合。

And then just a quick follow-up.

然後只是快速跟進。

Since you have been in the industry so long, just wanted to get your perspective of when do you think, which year EUV will be implemented in production, and which year 450 millimeter will hit the table?

既然你已經在這個行業工作了這麼久，只是想了解一下你認為 EUV 將在哪一年投入生產，以及 450 毫米將在哪一年上市？

Having been in the industry, whether it was 30, 40 or 50 years isn't particularly helpful, given some of the challenges that EUV has.

考慮到 EUV 面臨的一些挑戰，進入該行業，無論是 30 年、40 年還是 50 年，都不是特別有幫助。

I think the best qualified people to answer the EUV, are ASML and Cymer.

我認為最有資格回答 EUV 問題的人是 ASML 和 Cymer。

And certainly, I'm sure you are asking them about how they're going to get the throughput up.

當然，我確定您是在詢問他們將如何提高吞吐量。

All I could do would be to speculate and pass on customer concerns, which I don't think I necessarily helpful in terms of accuracy.

我所能做的就是推測並傳遞客戶的擔憂，我認為這在準確性方面不一定有幫助。

Relative to 450, maybe having been around this industry as long as I have, there's some perspectives that could be brought to bear.

相對於 450，也許只要我一直在這個行業工作，就可以考慮一些觀點。

One of the things I think about 450 that's a positive is, in the past when wafer size changes were conducted -- this is going way back to even 5-inch conversions and 6-inch, and then 200-millimeter, they were led by an individual Company.

我認為 450 是積極的一件事是，在過去進行晶圓尺寸變化時——這甚至可以追溯到 5 英寸轉換和 6 英寸，然後是 200 毫米，他們由個人公司。

And trailers came into play, and it was typically expensive, messy and a slow transition.

預告片開始發揮作用，但通常價格昂貴、凌亂且過渡緩慢。

At 300-millimeter, it was also slow and messy, as customers individually tried to define when they were going to market.

在 300 毫米時，它也緩慢而混亂，因為客戶各自試圖確定他們何時上市。

This time, with the public announcement of the G450 project in Albany.

這一次，隨著奧爾巴尼G450項目的公示。

And we have in essence, 5 companies that are going to participate in an early pilot, early device learning line, I think that's going to provide for an opportunity for more focused investment, the need in the next 3 years or so for fewer pieces of equipment that have to get scattered around the world at various individual customer sites.

從本質上講，我們有 5 家公司將參與早期試點、早期設備學習系列，我認為這將為更集中的投資提供機會，在未來 3 年左右的時間裡需要更少的設備必須分散在世界各地各個客戶站點的設備。

I think that it provides the industry, both the semiconductor manufacturing customers and the equipment and materials industry an opportunity to really learn what are the true costs associated with moving to 450.

我認為它為行業、半導體製造客戶以及設備和材料行業提供了一個真正了解與遷移到 450 相關的真實成本的機會。

What are the real as opposed to forecasted technical challenges?

與預測的技術挑戰相比，真正的技術挑戰是什麼？

And how quickly or how long, will it take really to work through the technical and the productivity challenges that are clearly going to be present at 450?

真正需要多快或多長時間才能解決 450 年顯然會出現的技術和生產力挑戰？

So with all of that said and done, with the thought process around 2013 timing for G450 activity, a year and-a-half to 2 years of that joint activity, various customers at some point wanting to put their own pilot lines in, whether that's late 2014 or 2015, another year and-a-half of activity associated with that, I think the reality is you're looking at -- on the very optimistic side, 2016, more likely 2017, and potentially even 2018, in terms of when this industry will really start to ramp 450 for high volume manufacture.

所以說了這麼多，做了這麼多，考慮到 2013 年左右 G450 活動的時間，一年半到兩年的聯合活動，各種客戶在某個時候想要投入他們自己的試驗線，無論是那是 2014 年末或 2015 年，與此相關的又一年半的活動，我認為現實是你正在看 - 在非常樂觀的方面，2016 年，更有可能是 2017 年，甚至可能是 2018 年，就條款而言該行業何時真正開始為大批量製造生產 450。

Timothy Arcuri, Citigroup.

蒂莫西·阿庫裡，花旗集團。

Hi.

你好。

This is Wenge for Tim.

這是 Tim 的 Wenge。

Steve, congratulations on a great career.

史蒂夫，祝賀你擁有偉大的職業生涯。

A couple things.

幾件事。

First, in terms of stock buyback, with the stock price backing up above the $40 level, what's the Company's thinking about buyback moving forward?

首先，在股票回購方面，隨著股價回升至 40 美元以上，公司對未來回購的想法是什麼？

Wenge, we're unchanged in terms of the overall programs that we've talked about.

Wenge，就我們所討論的整體計劃而言，我們沒有改變。

So our buyback activity will be a function of how the market moves.

因此，我們的回購活動將取決於市場走勢。

In terms of the foundry spending, Steve mentioned about 28-nanometer and the 32-nanometer clearly, has begun investment.

在代工支出方面，史蒂夫明確提到了28納米和32納米，已經開始投資。

And based on your discussion with customers, when do you think they expect the capacity to be online for their production?

根據您與客戶的討論，您認為他們預計什麼時候可以在線生產？

Well, there's a certain amount of 28-nanometer capacity that came online this year, probably to the tune of 40,000 to 50,000 wafer starts per month by the end of 2011.

嗯，今年有一定數量的 28 納米產能上線，到 2011 年底可能達到每月 40,000 到 50,000 片晶圓。

Whether all of that is fully qualified and fully outputted, that's a big question mark.

是否所有這些都完全合格並完全輸出，這是一個很大的問號。

When I talk to a number of the leading edge foundry and logic players, relative to a 28-, 32-nanometer ramp, there's a certain amount of caution that's associated with -- when they look at the demand that their customers are telling them they are going to need to meet, there's some degree of concern that their customers are too optimistic about whether that demand will really materialize.

當我與一些領先的代工廠和邏輯玩家交談時，相對於 28 納米、32 納米的斜坡，當他們看到客戶告訴他們的需求時，他們會保持一定程度的謹慎需要滿足，他們的客戶在某種程度上擔心這種需求是否會真正實現過於樂觀。

And so, the foundry logic players are stuck a little bit in a Catch-22, in the sense that if they don't put the capacity in place and the demand materializes, that's going to cause some serious problems with their customers.

因此，代工邏輯玩家有點陷入了第 22 條軍規，從某種意義上說，如果他們不把產能落實到位並且需求實現，那將給他們的客戶帶來一些嚴重的問題。

If they do put it in place, and it doesn't, it's far more expensive to deal with idle capacity when you're spending $1 billion for 10,000 wafer starts, than just 2 generations ago at 65-nanometer, you had $500 million tied up for 10,000 wafer starts.

如果他們確實將其落實到位，但事實並非如此，那麼當你花費 10 億美元用於 10,000 片晶圓啟動時，處理閒置產能的成本要高得多，而僅僅在 2 代之前的 65 納米工藝上，你有 5 億美元的捆綁高達 10,000 個晶圓啟動。

The impact on cash flow and the carrying cost associated with idle capacity at 28, 32 is much more impactful to the foundry logic companies.

對現金流的影響以及與 28、32 閒置產能相關的持有成本對代工邏輯公司的影響要大得多。

And so, as it stands right now, they're going to try and position as best they can.

因此，就目前的情況而言，他們將盡其所能嘗試定位。

But clearly they're going to look to certain segments of the industry, where they may put their litho in place because of the long lead times.

但很明顯，他們將著眼於行業的某些部分，因為交貨時間長，他們可能會在這些部分實施光刻。

And they'll obviously try to take advantage of a lot of the short lead times, and very fast response capabilities that companies like Lam Research can do, and wait for as long as they can before committing to putting additional capacity in place.

他們顯然會嘗試利用像 Lam Research 這樣的公司可以做到的許多短交貨期和非常快速的響應能力，並在承諾增加產能之前盡可能多地等待。

Edwin Mok, Needham & Company.

Edwin Mok, Needham & Company。

Congrats, Martin, and good luck to you, Steve.

祝賀你，馬丁，祝你好運，史蒂夫。

First, if I take your full year -- sorry, the fourth-quarter guidance and look at your full-year calendar 2011, I noticed that your revenue and shipment are down year-over-year.

首先，如果我拿你的全年 - 抱歉，第四季度指導並查看你的 2011 年全年日曆，我注意到你的收入和出貨量同比下降。

But if we look at WFE as flattish, is that just Intel, or the etch or the clean market actually underperforming WFE this year?

但是，如果我們認為 WFE 持平，那僅僅是英特爾，還是蝕刻或清潔市場今年實際上表現不佳？

And if so, why is that the case?

如果是這樣，為什麼會這樣？

Yes.

是的。

Good question, Edwin.

問得好，埃德溫。

It's actually both.

其實兩者兼而有之。

Clearly, in the context of the $31 billion spending for 2011 versus $29 [billion], a lot of that increase, in terms of spending is Intel.

顯然，在 2011 年 310 億美元的支出與 29 [十億美元] 的背景下，就支出而言，其中很大一部分是英特爾。

Our served customer market is actually down in 2011 on a total WFE basis, but it's actually down even more when you look at the etch SAM.

我們服務的客戶市場在 2011 年實際上在整個 WFE 基礎上有所下降，但當您查看蝕刻 SAM 時，它實際上下降得更多。

Historically, the etch SAM will fluctuate as a percent of WFE, anywhere from 12% to 14%.

從歷史上看，蝕刻 SAM 將作為 WFE 的百分比波動，從 12% 到 14% 不等。

In 2010, it ran pretty close to 14%, maybe 13.8%.

2010 年，它非常接近 14%，也許是 13.8%。

And certainly that was favorably impacted by the [non Inotera] conversion to stacked DRAM which required a significant investment in etch.

當然，[非 Inotera] 向堆疊式 DRAM 的轉換產生了有利影響，這需要在蝕刻方面進行大量投資。

Interestingly, when we look at 2011, there has been a greater amount of leading-edge spending, particularly in foundry, associated with litho and metrology and less early spending relative to etch, so that the etch SAM combined with the high level of technology conversion which impact etch to a greater degree than some other segments, our estimate is that etch is actually going to run about 12% of wafer fab equipment in 2011.

有趣的是，當我們回顧 2011 年時，與光刻和計量相關的前沿支出較多，特別是在代工方面，而與蝕刻相關的早期支出較少，因此蝕刻 SAM 與高水平的技術轉換相結合這比其他部分對蝕刻的影響更大，我們估計 2011 年蝕刻實際上將運行約 12% 的晶圓廠設備。

So our customer SAP/SAM spending slightly less.

所以我們的客戶 SAP/SAM 支出略少。

The etch SAM being down to 12%, results in about a 7% to 7.5% decline in etch SAM.

蝕刻 SAM 降至 12%，導致蝕刻 SAM 下降約 7% 至 7.5%。

And when we look at where we see our revenue situation, we'll be down year-over-year, offset by some favorability in our customer service business, somewhere in the 13%, 14%, 15% on a systems basis.

當我們查看我們的收入情況時，我們將同比下降，但被我們客戶服務業務的一些有利因素所抵消，在系統基礎上大約在 13%、14%、15% 左右。

What you end up with is we are essentially flat from a market share perspective in 2011 versus 2010 as it relates to our customer base, and clearly on a totality basis, because of the Intel effect and reduced etch spending at [non Inotera] in 2011, our overall market share on a total basis will be down about 5% or 5.5%, due to all those mix issues I just talked about.

你最終得到的結果是，從市場份額的角度來看，我們在 2011 年與 2010 年基本持平，因為它與我們的客戶群有關，而且顯然是在總體基礎上，因為英特爾效應和 2011 年 [非華亞科] 的蝕刻支出減少，由於我剛才談到的所有這些混合問題，我們的整體市場份額將下降約 5% 或 5.5%。

Great.

偉大的。

That was extremely helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then, I have a follow-up question on the leverage in the model.

然後，我有一個關於模型槓桿的後續問題。

If I take a down 20% 2012 scenario, and take a look at your 4Q guidance, that would imply that on a quarterly basis calendar 2012 is roughly around what you're guiding on the fourth quarter.

如果我假設 2012 年下降 20%，並查看您的 4Q 指導，這將意味著按季度計算 2012 年大致與您在第四季度的指導大致相同。

If that's what ends up happening for the industry, how do we think about leverage in the model?

如果這就是行業最終發生的事情，我們如何考慮模型中的槓桿作用？

Are we satisfied with 7.5% operating margin for the Company?

我們對公司 7.5% 的營業利潤率滿意嗎？

And if we are not, what do we expect cost savings could come from?

如果我們不是，我們期望成本節約來自什麼？

I'm going to let Martin and/or Ernie answer that, since they'll be the ones primarily responsible for delivering whatever it is we do.

我將讓 Martin 和/或 Ernie 來回答這個問題，因為他們將主要負責交付我們所做的一切。

I'm going to let Ernie deal with specific model questions and leverage, but I'll make a few comments relative to being happy or unhappy with 7.5%, because there are obviously many answers to a question like that.

我打算讓 Ernie 處理具體的模型問題和槓桿作用，但我會就 7.5% 的快樂或不快樂發表一些評論，因為這樣的問題顯然有很多答案。

And I think the important answer is that we are committed to make investments for the long-term success and growth of this Company.

我認為重要的答案是我們致力於為公司的長期成功和發展進行投資。

That doesn't mean that we go spend money independent of thinking through the implications in terms of financial performance through a cycle.

這並不意味著我們在不考慮整個週期的財務績效方面的影響的情況下獨立花錢。

But positioning the Company to turn on and turn off long-term R&D investments in projects is a very unwise thing to do.

但將公司定位為打開和關閉項目的長期研發投資是非常不明智的事情。

Hence, the commentary that the Company has been communicating for some time.

因此，公司已經傳達了一段時間的評論。

And so, none of us are happy with 7.5%.

因此，我們都不滿意 7.5%。

We have earned more than that at this revenue level.

在這個收入水平上，我們賺得更多。

And we would like to earn more than that at this revenue level.

我們希望在這個收入水平上賺取更多。

And the investments that we're making for the period of time we're making them, are made with the pursuit of that growth objective, and that profitability objective in mind.

我們在投資期間進行的投資是為了追求增長目標和盈利目標。

And so, it would be way premature for us to speak to profitability outlooks for 2012, because we haven't spoken to the wafer fab outlook in any detail today.

因此，我們現在談論 2012 年的盈利前景還為時過早，因為我們今天還沒有詳細討論晶圓廠的前景。

But that's the setup for hopefully giving some perspective around how we're processing making investments vis-a-vis a cycle and the underlying profitability level.

但這是希望就我們如何根據周期和潛在盈利水平進行投資提供一些觀點的設置。

I don't know if Ernie has anything to add in terms of the model.

不知道Ernie在模型方面有沒有什麼要補充的。

Edwin, the one thing I would add is we're currently looking at a second half in 2011 that is below the indicated ranges, or the midpoint of the indicated range that we've talked about relative to 2012.

埃德溫，我要補充的一件事是，我們目前正在研究 2011 年下半年低於指定範圍的情況，或者我們談到的相對於 2012 年的指定範圍的中點。

I don't necessarily think that you could take our fourth-quarter performance and fully extrapolate that forward.

我不一定認為您可以利用我們第四季度的業績並對其進行充分推斷。

We have obviously provided some commentary around intentions around OpEx, so I think there will be some potential leverage upward at the gross margin line, if business volumes improve.

我們顯然已經就 OpEx 的意圖提供了一些評論，因此我認為如果業務量有所改善，毛利率線將有一些潛在的槓桿作用。

We've talked about the continued investments we plan to make.

我們已經討論了我們計劃進行的持續投資。

I think the net-net of that would be, depending on the level of wafer fab that ultimately occurs, flat to slightly up overall performance.

我認為，根據最終出現的晶圓廠的水平，淨值將持平或略有上升的整體表現。

But we're really going to have to see ourselves getting through our annual planning process and making those final decisions, when we get through the final planning process.

但是，當我們完成最終規劃流程時，我們真的將不得不看到自己完成年度規劃流程並做出最終決定。

Satya Kumar, Credit Suisse.

Satya Kumar，瑞士信貸。

Steve, let me also wish you the best going forward.

史蒂夫，我也祝你一切順利。

Obviously, you are going to be missed by all of us, but I hope there will be opportunity for us to (inaudible) with you.

顯然，我們所有人都會想念您，但我希望我們有機會（聽不清）與您在一起。

On the question of market share, I understand that Intel is $6 billion in the WFE equation this year.

關於市場份額問題，據我所知，英特爾今年在 WFE 方程式中的價值為 60 億美元。

If I take that out, you mentioned second half is 25 to 26 run rate for the industry, that should get you to 22, 23 ex- Intel, and in September, the shipment run rate was close to about 22.

如果我把它去掉，你提到下半年該行業的運行率是 25 到 26，那應該讓你達到 22、23（不包括英特爾），而在 9 月份，出貨運行率接近 22。

Even ex-Intel, I find the down shipments in September a bit less than it should be.

即使不包括英特爾在內，我發現 9 月份的出貨量也比應有的少了一點。

I know year-on-year the DRAM impact is immaterial, but from beginning of this year to end of this year perspective, within your segments which you're participating in, how does the math (inaudible) add up in terms of market share?

我知道與去年同期相比，DRAM 的影響並不重要，但從今年年初到今年年底的角度來看，在您參與的細分市場中，數學（聽不清）如何在市場份額方面加起來？

Are there segments moving around, for example, NAND is moving around, and has the highest share.

是不是有段位在轉，比如NAND在轉，佔比最高。

Is that the reason for the relatively lower shipments?

這是出貨量相對較低的原因嗎？

The relative what?

親什麼？

The relatively lower shipments in December.

12月出貨量相對較低。

I think that when everybody gets done with their announcements of what they're shipping in December, we'll probably have a better feel.

我認為當每個人都完成了他們在 12 月發布的產品的公告時，我們可能會有更好的感覺。

Clearly, given that we don't ship to Intel, and Intel is shipping or taking deliveries pretty much in a balanced way throughout 2011, that would contribute to our shipments being down lower.

顯然，考慮到我們不向英特爾發貨，而英特爾在整個 2011 年幾乎以平衡的方式發貨或收貨，這將導致我們的發貨量下降。

The other aspect of things could very well be timing associated with some pushouts, that we had expected to ship in December, got pushed into March.

事情的另一個方面很可能是與一些推出相關的時間安排，我們原本預計在 12 月發貨，但被推遲到了 3 月。

We fully expect that they will in fact ship in March.

我們完全期待它們實際上會在 3 月份發貨。

And given that our speed of delivery, and maybe more importantly our speed of startup cycle time, potentially enables customers to delay our etch deliveries, maybe with more capability than some others.

考慮到我們的交付速度，也許更重要的是我們的啟動週期時間的速度，可能使客戶能夠延遲我們的蝕刻交付，也許比其他人有更多的能力。

But if you think about my comments that I made to Edwin relative to market share, I do think that when you take the Intel effect, when you take the fact that I think etch as a segment in 2011 is growing, or is negative growth year-over-year, particularly outside of Intel, other segments are not necessarily seeing their percent of wafer fab equipment spending change, nearly to the extent that it played out in 2011.

但如果你想想我對 Edwin 就市場份額做出的評論，我確實認為，當你考慮到英特爾效應時，當你考慮到我認為蝕刻作為一個細分市場在 2011 年正在增長，或者是負增長的一年時- 與去年同期相比，尤其是在英特爾之外，其他細分市場在晶圓廠設備支出中所佔的百分比不一定會發生變化，幾乎達到 2011 年的水平。

Having said that, I do think that when we look at what we think the spending will be in 2012, that we will see etch move back up at least to 13%, as a percent.

話雖如此，我確實認為，當我們審視 2012 年的支出情況時，我們會看到蝕刻至少回升至 13%（百分比）。

And probably more likely somewhere around 13.5% in 2012, because historically when it runs low like we see in 2011, it doesn't do that for very long and for a very sustained period of time.

2012 年可能更有可能在 13.5% 左右，因為從歷史上看，當它像我們在 2011 年看到的那樣處於低位時，它不會在很長時間內持續很長時間。

C.

C。

J.

J.

Muse, Barclays Capital.

繆斯，巴克萊資本。

Steve, let me extend my congratulations to you, and Martin, good to hear that voice again.

史蒂夫，讓我向你和馬丁表示祝賀，很高興再次聽到那個聲音。

That's an Irish accent, right?

那是愛爾蘭口音，對吧？

It's Scottish.

是蘇格蘭的。

(Laughter).

（笑聲）。

I know.

我知道。

I know.

我知道。

Thanks, CJ.

謝謝，希傑。

First question, trying to understand the breadth of spending you're seeing in Q4.

第一個問題，試圖了解您在第四季度看到的支出範圍。

You talked about foundry, advanced logic, and I'm assuming there's some NAND in there.

你談到了代工、高級邏輯，我假設那裡有一些 NAND。

I'm curious whether that incorporates all of the big boys?

我很好奇這是否包括所有大男孩？

And if not, should we start to see greater breadth of spending across those spenders in Q1?

如果不是，我們是否應該開始看到第一季度這些消費者的支出範圍更大？

You mean in the non-big boys?

你是說在非大男孩中？

(Laughter).

（笑聲）。

The top 5 guys.

前5名的人。

The reality is that when you look at in September you had all of the players spend what you would expect from the global foundries, Hynix, Samsung, IMFS, Toshiba, et cetera, et cetera.

現實情況是，當您在 9 月份查看時，所有參與者的支出都與您對全球代工廠、海力士、三星、IMFS、東芝等的預期一致。

And that when you look at December, it's fundamentally the same cast of characters, with maybe some additions here or there.

而且，當您查看 12 月時，它基本上是相同的角色，可能會在這里或那裡添加一些內容。

And slight differences in terms of how much money's being funneled into which particular line, if you're a company that has multiple product sets.

如果你是一家擁有多個產品集的公司，那麼在向哪條特定產品線投入多少資金方面會略有不同。

We've got 7 significant customers, and 3 to 5 of -- let's say people who spend somewhere between $500 million and $1 billion a year.

我們有 7 個重要客戶，其中 3 到 5 個——比方說每年花費 5 億到 10 億美元的人。

And when I look out at the first half -- Martin said that if we look at what customers want delivered in March, they are certainly asking us to deliver more in March.

當我看上半年時——馬丁說，如果我們看看客戶想要在 3 月份交付什麼，他們肯定會要求我們在 3 月份交付更多。

But just like this quarter, 3 months ago, whether they'll actually do that, none of us know.

但就像 3 個月前的這個季度一樣，他們是否真的會這樣做，我們都不知道。

And there is a broader mix of shipment requests when you look at there's a few more foundry players in the mix.

當您看到組合中有更多的代工企業時，就會有更廣泛的裝運請求組合。

There's more total consistency of spending in terms of those companies that do both NAND and DRAM.

就那些同時做 NAND 和 DRAM 的公司而言，支出的總體一致性更高。

They're going to do both.

他們將兩者兼顧。

And so, there is a broader orientation of spending across different types of ICs.

因此，不同類型 IC 的支出方向更廣泛。

But again, we're sitting here.

但是，我們又坐在這裡了。

And my sense is that what we're seeing is a reflection of the customers, and their forecasts for 2012, their customer demands that are being communicated to them for the first half of 2012, and they're clearly communicating to us.

我的感覺是，我們所看到的是客戶的反映，以及他們對 2012 年的預測，他們在 2012 年上半年向他們傳達的客戶需求，他們清楚地與我們溝通。

Based on this, we're going to need X, Y and Z.

基於此，我們將需要 X、Y 和 Z。

And even if we're down 10% or 15% in 2012, the reality is that most equipment companies, if not all, are going to be reporting that there's shipments and revenues are probably bottoming out in the December quarter.

即使我們在 2012 年下降了 10% 或 15%，現實情況是大多數設備公司（如果不是全部的話）都將報告出貨量和收入可能在 12 月季度觸底。

And if we're going to be down 10% or 15% overall, throughout the calendar 2012 at some point, shipments are going to have to come up on a quarterly basis, because the current run rate is below a 10% or 15% down.

如果我們要整體下降 10% 或 15%，在整個 2012 年的某個時候，出貨量將不得不按季度增加，因為當前的運行率低於 10% 或 15%向下。

I know it's early, but curious, in your discussion with NAND customers, are you seeing any discussion in terms of Thailand flooding, and the desire to add more solid-state capacity relative to hard disk drives that have been most impacted?

我知道現在還早，但很好奇，在您與 NAND 客戶的討論中，您是否看到任何關於泰國洪水的討論，以及相對於受影響最嚴重的硬盤驅動器增加更多固態容量的願望？

Not in my discussions.

不在我的討論中。

Martin, have you heard anything?

馬丁，你聽到什麼了嗎？

I don't think there's anything incremental that I'm aware of, no.

我不認為有任何我知道的增量，不。

There's definitely an emerging price point that makes that transition more attractive, not less.

肯定有一個新興的價格點使這種轉變更具吸引力，而不是更少。

But the road map in front of us is not overwhelming, at least in terms of the near term.

但擺在我們面前的路線圖並不是壓倒性的，至少就近期而言是這樣。

But there clearly is a broader set of penetrations for SSD anticipated for 2012 than 2011.

但很明顯，預計 2012 年的 SSD 滲透率將高於 2011 年。

Quite how that plays out in the scheme of consumer confidence, and basic messages in terms of PC growth, anybody's guess.

這在消費者信心計劃中如何發揮作用，以及個人電腦增長方面的基本信息，任何人都可以猜測。

But there's more, how much more to be determined, and I'm sure the investment that Steve characterized, in terms of new capacity additions in NAND is predicated on a set of assumptions that SSD growth is reasonable.

但還有更多，還有多少有待確定，而且我確信史蒂夫所描述的投資，就 NAND 的新容量增加而言，是基於一系列假設，即 SSD 增長是合理的。

C.

C。

J., it's always interesting when there's a natural disaster or some specific potential disruption to the supply chain, that people start to worry about, what's the magnitude of that.

J.，當發生自然災害或供應鏈出現某些特定的潛在中斷時，人們開始擔心，它的嚴重程度如何，這總是很有趣。

And in many respects, sometimes get overly concerned about it.

在許多方面，有時會過度關注它。

We could also talk about Apple's factory in China that makes their solid aluminum for their iPads and for their -- and it's really not for iPads, it's Mac book or Mac Air.

我們還可以談談 Apple 在中國的工廠，該工廠為他們的 iPad 和他們的實心鋁製造——實際上不是 iPad，而是 Mac book 或 Mac Air。

And it's supposedly shut down, and they produce somewhere around 60% of Apple's frames.

而且據說它已經關閉，他們生產了大約 60% 的蘋果框架。

So if that's true, Apple better have some alternative sources by which they could tap into that.

因此，如果這是真的，Apple 最好有一些替代來源，他們可以利用這些來源。

Or that could have an impact throughout the entire semiconductor IC supply chain, given Apple takes up a significant amount of NAND flash capacity on a global basis, as well as advanced logic chips.

或者這可能會對整個半導體 IC 供應鏈產生影響，因為蘋果在全球範圍內佔據了大量的 NAND 閃存容量，以及先進的邏輯芯片。

So we'll have to see how it plays out.

所以我們得看看結果如何。

Atif Malik, Morgan Stanley.

Atif Malik，摩根士丹利。

Congratulations, Steve and Martin.

恭喜，史蒂夫和馬丁。

I just want to clarify, the 2012 down 5% to down 20%, that view, is that based on Company's bottoms-up model, or is that based on global GDP, or is that sell side?

我只想澄清一下，2012 年下降 5% 到下降 20%，這種觀點是基於公司自下而上的模型，還是基於全球 GDP，還是賣方？

I would say it's much more of a general statement that is influenced by the opinions from you guys, who spend lots of time analyzing the details.

我想說的是，這更像是一個籠統的陳述，受到你們花費大量時間分析細節的意見的影響。

Whatever perspectives are very early, honestly, from customers that we can garner.

老實說，我們可以從客戶那裡獲得任何觀點。

And as we started this call, commentary on GDP and consumer confidence and corporate confidence.

當我們開始這個電話會議時，就 GDP 和消費者信心以及企業信心發表評論。

I would say a much more general response, than a specific one at this point in time.

在這個時間點，我會說一個比具體的回應更籠統的回應。

Ernie, any consideration for a dividend here?

厄尼，有沒有考慮分紅？

Or share buyback is still the best way of returning cash to the shareholders.

或者股票回購仍然是向股東返還現金的最佳方式。

We haven't revisited that discussion for a little bit, so right now it's as we've previously discussed, and no change foreseen.

我們還沒有重新討論那個討論，所以現在就像我們之前討論的那樣，並且沒有預見到任何變化。

I want to thank everybody for their participation in the call.

我要感謝大家參與電話會議。

And also, specifically take the opportunity to thank all of you for your kind words, as I didn't necessarily acknowledge that for each person who did.

而且，特別藉此機會感謝你們所有人的客氣話，因為我不一定對每個人都表示感謝。

But I want you to know, I appreciate the comments.

但我想讓你知道，我很欣賞這些評論。

And I look forward to staying in touch and continue to have dialogues about this very interesting industry.

我期待與您保持聯繫並繼續就這個非常有趣的行業進行對話。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Shanye to close the call.

有了這個，我會把它交給 Shanye 來結束通話。

Thank you all for joining the call today.

感謝大家今天加入電話會議。

I'd remind you that the audio replay of today's call will be available on our website later this afternoon.

我想提醒您，今天下午晚些時候我們的網站上將提供今天電話會議的音頻重播。

And with that, that concludes our call.

至此，我們的電話就此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the conference call.

女士們，先生們，電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect, and thank you for using ACT conferencing.

您現在可以斷開連接，感謝您使用 ACT 會議。