科林研發 (LRCX) 2008 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by.

下午好，女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to Lam's September quarter financial results conference call.

歡迎參加林的 9 月季度財務業績電話會議。

During today's presentation, all parties will be in a listen-only mode.

在今天的演示中，所有各方都將處於只聽模式。

Following the presentation, the conference will be open for questions.

演講結束後，會議將開放提問。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) This conference is being recorded Wednesday, October 10, 2007.

（操作員說明）本次會議將於 2007 年 10 月 10 日星期三錄製。

This call is also scheduled to conclude at 3:00 p.m.

本次電話會議也定於下午 3:00 結束。

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Carol Raeburn, Investor Relations Analyst.

我現在想將電話會議轉交給投資者關係分析師 Carol Raeburn。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線員。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Lam Research Corporation's September 2007 quarterly conference call.

下午好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2007 年 9 月的季度電話會議。

Here today are Steve Newberry, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Martin Anstice, Chief Financial Officer.

今天在座的是總裁兼首席執行官 Steve Newberry 和首席財務官 Martin Anstice。

Today we will discuss limited financial results for the quarter ended September 23, 2007, and our business outlook for the December 2007 quarter.

今天，我們將討論截至 2007 年 9 月 23 日的季度有限的財務業績，以及我們對 2007 年 12 月季度的業務展望。

A press release detailing our financial results for the September 2007 quarter was distributed by BusinessWire at approximately 1:05 p.m., and is available on our Web site at www.LamResearch.com.

美國商業資訊在大約下午 1:05 分發了一份詳細說明我們 2007 年 9 月季度財務業績的新聞稿，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 www.LamResearch.com 上查閱。

Today's call contains forward-looking statements, including those related to revenue and shipment forecasts, customer demand and industry conditions, as well as statements that express the company's expectations, beliefs, plans, and forecasts.

今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括與收入和出貨量預測、客戶需求和行業狀況相關的陳述，以及表達公司預期、信念、計劃和預測的陳述。

There are important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those discussed in these forward-looking statements.

有一些重要因素可能導致我們的實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中討論的結果大不相同。

Additional information concerning factors that could cause results to differ can be found on our report form 10-K for the year ended June 25, 2006.

有關可能導致結果不同的因素的更多信息，請參見我們截至 2006 年 6 月 25 日的年度報告表 10-K。

This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m.

本次電話會議計劃持續到下午 3:00。

and we ask that you please limit questions to one per firm.

我們要求您將問題限制在每家公司一個。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Martin for a review of the September quarter.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給 Martin，讓他回顧一下 9 月份的季度。

Thank you, Carol.

謝謝你，卡羅爾。

This afternoon, we will discuss our September 2007 quarter financial results.

今天下午，我們將討論我們 2007 年 9 月的季度財務業績。

As we discussed last quarter, our Board of Directors initiated a voluntary independent review of the accounting and reporting related to past company grants of employee stock options.

正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們的董事會對與過去公司授予員工股票期權相關的會計和報告進行了自願獨立審查。

This review is ongoing, although moving ahead expeditiously, and with due intention to detail.

這項審查正在進行中，儘管進展迅速，並且有意詳細說明。

Accordingly, the determination of any impact to our financial statements, cash or noncash, is currently unknown.

因此，目前尚不清楚對我們的財務報表（現金或非現金）的任何影響的確定。

However, company management has taken steps to assess the potential for impact to the discrete September 2007 quarter financials.

然而，公司管理層已採取措施評估對離散的 2007 年 9 月季度財務的潛在影響。

Based on current known facts and beliefs, the potential for material changes to the financial results presented today is limited, although theoretically possible.

根據目前已知的事實和信念，儘管理論上是可能的，但今天公佈的財務業績發生重大變化的可能性是有限的。

Our best judgment is to share more information than we reported in June again with due caution that potential for changes exist as a function of concluding the stock options review.

我們最好的判斷是再次分享比我們在 6 月份報告的更多的信息，並適當謹慎地指出，作為結束股票期權審查的一項功能，存在變化的可能性。

Highlights of today's reported earnings include shipments of $621 million within the range of anticipated, down 11% sequentially.

今天報告的收益亮點包括在預期範圍內的 6.21 億美元的出貨量，環比下降 11%。

Revenue of $685 million at the high end of our guidance range, with a reported gross margin of slightly more than 50%.

收入為 6.85 億美元，處於我們指導範圍的高端，報告的毛利率略高於 50%。

Strong ongoing operating income performance of 29.4% of revenues, and net cash and short-term investments of more than $1 billion.

持續強勁的營業收入表現佔收入的 29.4%，淨現金和短期投資超過 10 億美元。

Shipments, at $621 million, were down from the all-time company high in June of $694 million.

出貨量為 6.21 億美元，低於 6 月份公司歷史最高點 6.94 億美元。

This reflects the anticipated reduction of shipments to foundry customers, to some extent the function of unanticipated strength in the June quarter previously discussed.

這反映了對代工客戶出貨量的預期減少，在一定程度上反映了先前討論的 6 月季度意外強勁的作用。

And in addition, the first sequential quarterly reduction of shipments to DRAM customers in a year, as though customers make adjustments to their investment plans consistent with the current DRAM pricing environments.

此外，DRAM 客戶的出貨量在一年內首次出現季度連續下降，似乎客戶根據當前的 DRAM 定價環境調整了他們的投資計劃。

300 millimeter applications represented approximately 90% of total system shipments, and applications that are less than or equal to the 90 nanometer technology node represent [9.7%].

300 毫米應用約佔系統總出貨量的 90%，小於或等於 90 納米技術節點的應用佔 [9.7%]。

Memory segment customers in the quarter represented a very strong 85% of total system shipments with the NAND components accounting for approximately 39% of total memory.

本季度內存部分客戶佔系統總出貨量的 85%，其中 NAND 組件約佔總內存的 39%。

Logic/other was 8% and foundry was 7% of the total systems shipments.

邏輯/其他佔 8%，代工佔系統總出貨量的 7%。

Revenue of $685 million was at the high end of our guidance range with gross margin at the quarter sustained above the 50% level.

收入為 6.85 億美元，處於我們指導範圍的高端，本季度毛利率維持在 50% 以上的水平。

In addition, with our December quarter guidance, Steve will speak to in a moment, this is consistent with our full-year expectations of year-over-year revenue growth 2007 over 2006 of between 15 and 20%.

此外，根據我們 12 月季度的指導，史蒂夫將在稍後發表講話，這與我們對 2007 年全年收入比 2006 年增長 15% 至 20% 的全年預期一致。

Combined with an expectation of 2% year-over-year etched shipment growth in 2007, we believe that this is one of the most illustrative data points to share our market share expansion message.

再加上 2007 年蝕刻出貨量同比增長 2% 的預期，我們認為這是最能說明我們市場份額擴張信息的數據點之一。

For more complete details on the geographic breakdown of shipments and revenues, please see today's press release and our Web site for a reconciliation of shipments, revenues, and deferred revenues.

有關出貨量和收入地理分佈的更完整詳細信息，請參閱今天的新聞稿和我們的網站，了解出貨量、收入和遞延收入的對賬。

Operating expenses for the company were $146 million in the September quarter.

該公司在 9 月季度的運營費用為 1.46 億美元。

This includes approximately $3 million of non-ongoing expenses associated with the voluntary stock option review.

這包括與自願股票期權審查相關的大約 300 萬美元的非持續費用。

As anticipated, the expansion of operating expenses has slowed, although we continue to invest in R&D activities, as well as infrastructure, to support our new product's penetration and qualification plans, consistent with the window of opportunity presented by our targeted customers.

正如預期的那樣，儘管我們繼續投資於研發活動以及基礎設施，以支持我們的新產品的滲透和資格計劃，但運營費用的增長已經放緩，這與我們的目標客戶提供的機會之窗一致。

Our total net cash balance, including restricted cash, was slightly more than $1 billion at the end of September.

截至 9 月底，我們的總淨現金餘額（包括受限現金）略高於 10 億美元。

Inventory performance was 5.7 turns.

庫存表現為 5.7 轉。

Accounts receivable collections performance was exceptional, with DSO at 45 days.

應收賬款收款表現非常出色，DSO 為 45 天。

Deferred revenue and deferred profit balances were $226 million and $149 million, respectively, both down in the range of 25 to 30% sequentially.

遞延收入和遞延利潤餘額分別為 2.26 億美元和 1.49 億美元，環比均下降 25% 至 30%。

In addition, there is approximately $62 million of anticipated future revenue value from previously-made shipments to Japanese customers.

此外，先前向日本客戶發貨的預計未來收入價值約為 6200 萬美元。

In the quarter there was no stock repurchase activity by the company, although we realized the full benefit of June quarter repurchases in September.

儘管我們在 9 月份實現了 6 月份季度回購的全部收益，但該季度公司沒有進行股票回購活動。

Total basic shares outstanding are approximately 124 million at the end of the period.

期末發行在外的基本股份總數約為1.24億股。

Our own capital expenditures were $11 million, depreciation and amortization was $12 million, we received $14 million from the exercise of employee XT plans, head counts grew from 2,900 at the end of June to approximately 2,970 at the end of September, with the majority of the increase in R&D and field operations.

我們自己的資本支出為 1100 萬美元，折舊和攤銷為 1200 萬美元，我們從員工 XT 計劃的行使中獲得了 1400 萬美元，員工人數從 6 月底的 2,900 人增加到 9 月底的約 2,970 人，其中大部分研發和現場操作的增加。

Now for Steve's comments.

現在來看史蒂夫的評論。

Thank you, Martin, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，馬丁，大家下午好。

Lam once again produced very strong operating and financial results in the September quarter.

Lam 在 9 月季度再次取得了非常強勁的經營和財務業績。

As you've heard from Martin, we are pleased to be able to share more of these results with you today than was the case last quarter.

正如您從 Martin 那裡聽到的那樣，我們很高興今天能夠與您分享比上個季度更多的這些結果。

The results support our view that Lam continues to perform consistent with the guidance that we've provided.

結果支持我們的觀點，即 Lam 繼續按照我們提供的指導執行。

In particular, I'm pleased with Lam's ability to deliver revenue to the high end of our guided range, even in an environment where shipments were down roughly 11%.

特別是，即使在出貨量下降約 11% 的環境下，Lam 能夠將收入提高到我們指導範圍的高端，我也很高興。

Our financial performance remains strong, as evidenced by the increase in our cash balance to approximately $1.3 billion.

我們的財務表現依然強勁，我們的現金餘額增加到約 13 億美元就證明了這一點。

Today I want to focus my discussion on a couple of topics.

今天我想集中討論幾個主題。

First, I will provide some color on our view of the market and customer spending trends as we move toward calendar 2008.

首先，隨著我們邁向 2008 年日曆，我將提供一些關於我們對市場和客戶消費趨勢的看法。

Second, I want to discuss how Lam is progressing from a market share perspective and I'll update you on some successes that give us confidence in our ability to not only consolidate and maintain our recent market share gains, but continue to gain share by penetrating new applications, particularly at the leading edge technology nodes.

其次，我想從市場份額的角度討論 Lam 如何取得進展，我將向您介紹一些成功案例，這些成功讓我們相信我們不僅有能力鞏固和保持我們最近的市場份額增長，而且通過滲透繼續獲得份額新應用，特別是在前沿技術節點。

Starting with our market outlook, we continue to expect IC unit growth in the 10 to 12% range for calendar 2007 versus 2006, driven by the strong performance unit growth-wise for memory.

從我們的市場展望開始，我們繼續預計 2007 年與 2006 年相比，IC 單位的增長將在 10% 到 12% 的範圍內，這主要是由內存的強勁性能單位增長推動的。

We continue to forecast memory unit growth of approximately 27% in calendar 2007, with DRAM units growing 52%, NAND flash units growing 47%, and other memory flat year over year.

我們繼續預測 2007 年內存單元增長約 27%，其中 DRAM 單元增長 52%，NAND 閃存單元增長 47%，其他內存同比持平。

Logic, microprocessor, and other I.C.s are still expected to be up in the neighborhood of 8 to 10% year over year on a unit basis.

邏輯、微處理器和其他 I.C.s 仍有望在單位基礎上同比增長 8% 到 10% 左右。

We also remain comfortable with our outlook for total wafer fab equipment spending, which we anticipate will be up 5 to 7% in 2007 to the $30 billion range.

我們也對我們對晶圓廠設備總支出的前景感到滿意，我們預計 2007 年將增長 5% 至 7%，達到 300 億美元的範圍。

While the overall environment is consistent with our prior outlooks, we are now seeing a higher mix of memory spending, which should be up approximately 25% for 2007, an increase from our prior view of 16 to 19%.

雖然整體環境與我們之前的預期一致，但我們現在看到內存支出的組合更高，2007 年應該增長約 25%，比我們之前預期的 16% 到 19% 有所增長。

Spending in foundry and logic is now expected to be down an aggregate 15 to 17% for the year compared to our prior view of down 5 to 7% and microprocessor is expected to be slightly better, down approximately 4% now versus down 7% in our prior forecast.

與我們之前預期的下降 5% 至 7% 相比，今年在代工和邏輯方面的支出預計將下降 15% 至 17%，微處理器預計會稍微好一些，現在下降約 4%，而去年下降 7%。我們之前的預測。

These changes in the specific spending categories reflect a market environment where customers are adjusting their spending plans in accordance with their near-term views of market opportunities and needs.

具體支出類別的這些變化反映了客戶正在根據他們對市場機會和需求的近期看法調整他們的支出計劃的市場環境。

Looking at the memory market, specifically, I talked both in this forum and at our analyst day event about how the relative capital intensity in the memory segment is not likely to be sustainable at 50% of revenue as is still forecasted for calendar year 2007.

具體來說，看看內存市場，我在這個論壇和我們的分析師日活動中都談到了內存領域的相對資本密集度在 2007 日曆年仍佔收入的 50% 時不太可能持續下去。

The current DRAM environment is characterized by persistent ASP declines, which have continued through the September quarter.

當前 DRAM 環境的特點是 ASP 持續下降，這種下降一直持續到 9 月季度。

DRAM price per bit is now forecasted to decline approximately 48% on average, year over year, versus the historical norm of 30%.

現在預計 DRAM 的每比特價格平均每年將下降約 48%，而歷史標準為 30%。

PC OEMs have taken the opportunity presented by declining prices to build higher bit content into their machines in support of conversions to the Vista operating system.

PC OEM 已經抓住了價格下降帶來的機會，在他們的機器中構建了更高位的內容，以支持向 Vista 操作系統的轉換。

While corporate conversions to Vista are expected to begin accelerating in the first half of next year, when an overall strong underlying IC unit demand environment exists, we believe that a beneficial supply/demand correction is likely to play out over the next two or three quarters in the memory space.

雖然預計企業向 Vista 的轉換將在明年上半年開始加速，但在整體強勁的潛在 IC 單位需求環境存在時，我們認為未來兩三個季度可能會出現有利的供需調整在內存空間中。

Meanwhile, the NAND market continues to unfold favorably.

與此同時，NAND市場繼續向好的方向發展。

Fueled by the accelerating demand for a wide variety of digital consumer electronics products, we believe that NAND flash unit demand in the September quarter was up more than 15% from the June quarter.

在對各種數字消費電子產品的需求加速增長的推動下，我們認為 9 月季度的 NAND 閃存單元需求比 6 月季度增長了 15% 以上。

Drivers of this activity include increased bit content and high-end MP3 players, as illustrated by the recently-refreshed iPod line featuring configurations of up to 16 gigabytes and demand for flash cards in support of digital photography and video products as well as many new high-end cell phones.

這一活動的驅動因素包括增加的比特內容和高端 MP3 播放器，例如最近更新的 iPod 系列，其配置高達 16 GB，對支持數碼攝影和視頻產品的閃存卡的需求以及許多新的高- 結束手機。

We are now forecasting that NAND flash bit growth will increase by more than 190% and units will increase approximately $800 million in 2007, compared with 2006.

我們現在預測，與 2006 年相比，2007 年 NAND 閃存位的增長將增加 190% 以上，單位數將增加約 8 億美元。

In the foundries, utilization rose to over 90% in the September quarter, up from 87%.

在代工廠中，9 月份季度的利用率從 87% 上升到 90% 以上。

.

.

The demand has largely been at 90 nanometer and above, with the expected ramp at 65 nanometer coming more slowly than anticipated due to a narrowing of the number of logic device applications that realize a cost and performance benefit from moving to the 65 nanometer technology node.

需求主要在 90 納米及以上，由於實現向 65 納米技術節點的成本和性能優勢的邏輯器件應用數量減少，預計 65 納米的增長速度比預期的要慢。

We do expect that 65 nanometer volume will ramp throughout the next year, driving the need for capacity expansion at that node and for additional capacity to support the initial ramp for 45 nanometer.

我們確實預計 65 納米的產量將在明年全年增加，從而推動該節點的產能擴張以及支持 45 納米初始產量的額外產能的需求。

Given this market environment, spending for DRAM capacity additions is slowing and expected to decline 24% in the second half of 2007 versus the first half of 2007.

鑑於這種市場環境，DRAM 產能增加的支出正在放緩，預計 2007 年下半年與 2007 年上半年相比將下降 24%。

NAND spending for capacity additions is increasing by approximately 44% in the second half of 2007 versus the first half, with overall spending for memory down approximately 7% second half versus first half.

與上半年相比，2007 年下半年用於增加容量的 NAND 支出增加了約 44%，下半年與上半年相比，內存的總體支出下降了約 7%。

Foundry and logic, wafer fab equipment spending in the second half is forecasted to be down approximately 28% versus the first half and microprocessor spending is now expected to be flat second half versus first half.

預計下半年代工和邏輯、晶圓廠設備支出將比上半年下降約 28%，而微處理器支出現在預計下半年與上半年持平。

As we began to gain visibility into 2008, we can give an initial glimpse of potential customer spending.

隨著我們開始了解 2008 年，我們可以初步了解潛在客戶的支出。

Obviously, the duration of the expected supply demand correction in DRAM plays a key role in determining the outlook for memory spending.

顯然，DRAM 預期供需修正的持續時間在決定內存支出前景方面起著關鍵作用。

Based on our current view of the marketplace, we believe that the first half of 2008 wafer fab equipment spending will begin to trend up relative to spending in the second half of 2007 and spending for the full year 2008 is likely to be flattish with calendar 2007.

根據我們目前對市場的看法，我們認為 2008 年上半年晶圓廠設備支出將相對於 2007 年下半年開始呈上升趨勢，而 2008 年全年支出可能與 2007 年持平.

Memory spending could potentially be down about 10 to 15% year on year, though foundry, logic, other, and MPU spending in aggregate could increase at a rate that could largely decline the spending.

內存支出可能同比下降約 10% 至 15%，但代工、邏輯、其他和 MPU 支出的總體增長速度可能會大幅下降。

Factors that will play key roles in the ultimate spending on equipment will include the demand environment for memory in the coming months, which will in large measure be determined by continued growth in computer products driven by Vista conversions and ongoing demand for high memory content personal digital devices, as well as the overall demand for the broad range of other semiconductor intensive consumer digital electronics, such as high definition TVs and game consoles.

將在設備最終支出中發揮關鍵作用的因素將包括未來幾個月的內存需求環境，這在很大程度上取決於由 Vista 轉換驅動的計算機產品的持續增長以及對高內存內容個人數字的持續需求設備，以及對廣泛的其他半導體密集型消費數字電子產品的整體需求，例如高清電視和遊戲機。

Lam's financial performance in this spending environment is expected to remain strong and will be supported by our ability to enhance our leading market share position in Etch at each successive technology node.

Lam 在這種支出環境下的財務表現預計將保持強勁，並將得到我們在每個連續技術節點上提升我們在 Etch 領先市場份額地位的能力的支持。

Lam is on track to its prior stated target of approximately 49% market share in shipments of Etch products at the end of calendar 2007, a 3 percentage point increase from 2006.

Lam 有望實現其先前聲明的目標，即到 2007 年底，Etch 產品出貨量的市場份額約為 49%，比 2006 年增加 3 個百分點。

Our share increases are a function of 8 to 9 points of growth in dielectric memory, leading to a greater than 41% share of the overall dielectric market, up 4.5 points or from 2006, and conductor share remaining at greater than 60%, exiting 2007.

我們的份額增長是電介質存儲器增長 8 到 9 個點的函數，導致整個電介質市場的份額超過 41%，比 2006 年增長 4.5 個百分點，導體份額保持在 60% 以上，退出 2007 .

Additional validation of our market share gains is supported by our expectation that Lam memory shipments in calendar year 2007 will grow greater than 32%, compared with the expected 24 to 26% growth in wafer fab equipment memory spending.

我們預計 2007 日曆年 Lam 內存出貨量將增長超過 32%，而晶圓廠設備內存支出預計增長 24% 至 26%，這進一步驗證了我們的市場份額增長。

We expect to continue to increase our share at the 5X and 4X technology nodes as a function of 12 additional application wins, including 8 in the dielectric market, and 4 in the conductor market, offset by 5 losses for the calendar year, 2007.

我們預計將繼續增加我們在 5X 和 4X 技術節點的份額，因為 12 項額外的應用獲勝，其中包括 8 項在電介質市場和 4 項在導體市場，被 2007 日曆年的 5 項損失所抵消。

We expect over time that the net wins will drive additional share and provide us with slightly greater than 50% share in future year depending upon the ultimate customer spending mix in any given year.

我們預計，隨著時間的推移，淨贏將推動額外的份額，並在未來一年為我們提供略高於 50% 的份額，具體取決於任何給定年份的最終客戶支出組合。

Let's now turn to guidance for the December quarter.

現在讓我們轉向 12 月季度的指導。

Revenue is expected to be in the range of 580 to $600 million, which is consistent with our prior view that revenue for calendar 2007 would be up 15 to 20% over 2006.

預計收入將在 580 至 6 億美元之間，這與我們之前的觀點一致，即 2007 日曆年的收入將比 2006 年增長 15% 至 20%。

We are forecasting gross margins of approximately 49 to 50%, an operating margin of approximately 25%, plus or minus 1%.

我們預計毛利率約為 49% 至 50%，營業利潤率約為 25%，上下浮動 1%。

Shipments in the December quarter are expected to be down in the range of 5 to 10%, benefiting from some memory pull-ins from early 2008 planned shipments offsetting some of the delayed spending that was expected in foundry as I previously discussed.

預計 12 月季度的出貨量將下降 5% 到 10%，這得益於 2008 年初計劃出貨量的一些內存拉動，抵消了我之前討論的代工廠預期的一些延遲支出。

Again, this view is consistent with the prior calendar 2007 outlook of shipments increasing 5 to 10% in calendar year 2007 versus 2006.

同樣，這一觀點與之前的 2007 日曆年出貨量展望一致，即 2007 日曆年的出貨量比 2006 年增長 5% 到 10%。

Before wrapping up, I want to quickly address the board's review of Lam's stock option accounting practices.

在結束之前，我想快速解決董事會對林的股票期權會計實務的審查。

As Martin indicated, the independent committee is working through the process as quickly and diligently as possible.

正如馬丁所指出的，獨立委員會正在盡可能快、勤奮地完成這一過程。

The next event resulting from the review is our NASDAQ hearing, which is scheduled for tomorrow, October 11.

審查產生的下一個事件是我們定於明天 10 月 11 日在納斯達克舉行的聽證會。

We'll continue to keep you updated as events develop.

隨著事件的發展，我們將繼續為您提供最新信息。

In closing, Lam delivered another very strong quarter for the September quarter and our business continues to perform very well.

最後，Lam 在 9 月季度實現了另一個非常強勁的季度，我們的業務繼續表現良好。

Our long-term outlook for the wafer fab equipment market remains strong.

我們對晶圓廠設備市場的長期前景依然強勁。

We are pleased with our continued market share gains and we continue to make good progress on executing our adjacent market strategy with the introduction of new products that are meeting critical customer challenges.

我們對我們持續的市場份額增長感到高興，並且我們繼續在執行我們的相鄰市場戰略方面取得良好進展，推出了滿足關鍵客戶挑戰的新產品。

I would like to thank all of our employees across the Lam organizations worldwide for their continued outstanding contributions to our performance.

我要感謝我們在全球範圍內的 Lam 組織的所有員工，感謝他們對我們業績的持續傑出貢獻。

We'll now open it up

我們現在打開它

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Our first question comes from Gary Hsueh with CIBC World Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 CIBC World Markets 的 Gary Hsueh。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, guys.

大家好。

Good quarter here.

這裡的好季度。

Thanks a lot for taking my question.

非常感謝您提出我的問題。

A quick question here, looking at your shipment guidance, that would kind of bring your shipment level to roughly around 600, and yet you're guiding revenues below your shipment level.

這裡有一個快速的問題，查看您的發貨指南，這將使您的發貨水平大約達到 600 左右，但您將收入引導至低於您的發貨水平。

Normally that doesn't really happen because you do have north of $200 million in deferred revenue.

通常這不會真正發生，因為您確實有超過 2 億美元的遞延收入。

Can you tell me what's going on particularly in the December quarter?

你能告訴我特別是在 12 月季度發生了什麼嗎？

Why shipments would actually be higher than revenue levels?

為什麼出貨量實際上會高於收入水平？

We said shipments down 5 to 10%.

我們說出貨量下降 5% 到 10%。

So you kind of end up in a very similar range of shipments to revenue, pretty close to a 1 to 1.

因此，您最終的出貨量與收入的範圍非常相似，非常接近 1 比 1。

I think that what you end up with is a situation where depending upon the customer mix of where your shipments are in a given quarter, in some quarters, you can get a high turns to acceptance because of who the customers are that you're shipping in the middle weeks of the quarter.

我認為您最終會遇到的情況是，根據您的發貨在給定季度的客戶組合，在某些季度，您可以獲得很高的接受度，因為您正在運送的客戶是誰在本季度的中間幾週。

With this particular quarter, we have a number of shipments in the middle of our quarter where they're going to customers either where we're doing some new application work or they're customers that historically have a little longer accepted cycle time.

在這個特定的季度，我們在我們的季度中期有許多出貨量，它們將發往我們正在做一些新應用程序工作的客戶，或者他們是歷史上接受週期時間稍長的客戶。

So the ability to ship those, get them started up and get them to revenue is a little bit more of a challenge this quarter.

因此，運送這些產品、啟動它們並讓它們獲得收入的能力在本季度更具挑戰性。

Steve, you're referring to Japan in particular in the December quarter?

史蒂夫，你指的是特別是在 12 月季度的日本？

Is that the region, Japan?

是那個地區，日本嗎？

Japan tends to be a little longer on their cycle times.

日本的周期時間往往更長一些。

Okay, that makes sense.

好吧，這是有道理的。

Last follow-up question for me, what are you guys seeing in terms of pricing pressure out there?

我的最後一個後續問題，你們在定價壓力方面看到了什麼？

I know with DRAM pricing being sort of in the pits, there's intensified pressure on pricing from your side.

我知道 DRAM 的定價有點像在坑里，你這邊的定價壓力越來越大。

If you look at your December revenue guidance, you're still holding with a pretty significant revenue drop, your gross margin of 49 to 50%.

如果您查看 12 月的收入指導，您的收入仍會大幅下降，毛利率為 49% 至 50%。

Obviously you're not seeing it.

顯然你沒有看到它。

What are you doing to kind of beat that back?

你在做什麼來打敗它？

Well, I think while we've talked about pricing pressures and as we've mentioned before, the reality is, the pricing environment is always very tough, very competitive, so it's really no different in spite of the fact that the customer's environment is difficult.

好吧，我認為雖然我們已經談到了定價壓力，正如我們之前提到的，但現實是，定價環境總是非常艱難，非常有競爭力，所以儘管客戶的環境是難的。

Our ability to keep our margins up is really a function of the business model that we've put in place and we've talked about for a long time is that as our revenues fall off, we're able to get our variable cost factors in the factory out in a very consistent fashion with the decline in revenue and then because we work very closely with our remote factory providers, we really aren't carrying a significant amount of fixed costs that as the revenue drops, it creates period cost inefficiencies.

我們保持利潤率上升的能力實際上是我們已經實施的商業模式的一個功能，我們已經討論了很長時間是，隨著我們的收入下降，我們能夠獲得可變成本因素隨著收入的下降，工廠以非常一致的方式退出，然後因為我們與遠程工廠供應商密切合作，我們實際上並沒有承擔大量的固定成本，隨著收入的下降，它會造成期間成本效率低下.

So our business model really allows us to tolerate significant declines in revenue with minimal or modest declines in gross margin.

因此，我們的商業模式確實允許我們容忍收入的大幅下降，而毛利率的下降幅度很小或適度。

Our next question comes from Satya Kumar with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Satya Kumar。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hi, Steve.

嗨，史蒂夫。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I've got a question on your Q4 shipments.

我有一個關於你們第四季度發貨的問題。

If I annualized your Q4 shipments, calendar '08, by my math would be down about 8.4%.

如果我將 08 年第 4 季度的出貨量按年計算，根據我的數學計算，您的出貨量將下降約 8.4%。

Given your belief that CapEx looks flattish and you could gain share and you have new products, my math says your December shipments are running at least $50 million below what you think is normalized shipment levels for calendar '08.

鑑於您認為資本支出看起來持平並且您可以獲得份額並且您有新產品，我的數學表明您 12 月的出貨量比您認為的 08 日曆的正常出貨量水平至少低 5000 萬美元。

In addition you're saying CapEx is off next year.

此外，您說資本支出明年將關閉。

So that would seem like you're seeing clearly at least a double digit recovery in orders in December and shipments growing into March?

因此，您似乎清楚地看到 12 月的訂單至少有兩位數的複蘇，而 3 月的出貨量增長？

Is that a correct assessment and can you help me think about why that would be happening given your earlier cautious statements on memory?

這是一個正確的評估嗎？鑑於你之前對記憶的謹慎陳述，你能幫我想想為什麼會發生這種情況嗎？

Well, I may have confused you and you have successfully confused me because I've made no comments about anything related to the shipment environment for calendar year '08.

好吧，我可能讓你感到困惑，而你也成功地讓我感到困惑，因為我沒有對與 08 日曆年的發貨環境相關的任何事情發表任何評論。

The only comments we made was that our shipment guidance for December of '07 is down 5 to 10% and if you take all of our previous shipments, that it's consistent with our statement that shipments would end the year in calendar year '07, up 5 to 10%.

我們所做的唯一評論是，我們 07 年 12 月的出貨量指導下降了 5% 到 10%，如果您拿走我們之前的所有出貨量，這與我們的聲明一致，即出貨量將在 '07 日曆年結束，向上5% 到 10%。

And so maybe there was some confusion in terms of that reference relative to calendar year '07.

因此，相對於 07 日曆年的參考可能存在一些混淆。

No, I guess my question was, you said in '08 you look at a flattish CapEx environment; is that right?

不，我想我的問題是，你在 08 年說你看到的是一個平淡的資本支出環境；那正確嗎？

Right.

正確的。

I talked about a flattish CapEx environment in '08 --

我在 08 年談到過平緩的資本支出環境——

If I take your Q4 shipment guidance and annualize that, relative to your calendar '07 shipment, '08 shipments would be down about 5 to 10%?

如果我採用你們的 Q4 出貨量指導並按年計算，相對於你們 07 年日曆的出貨量，'08 年出貨量會下降 5% 到 10%？

Why would you annualize the December shipment guidance?

為什麼要將 12 月的出貨指導年化？

I said that the shipments were going to start trending up in the first half of '08.

我說出貨量將在 08 年上半年開始呈上升趨勢。

Got it.

知道了。

I just wanted to make sure that that was a correct assessment.

我只是想確保這是一個正確的評估。

Yes.

是的。

What I said about the shipments trending up in the first half of '08 versus the second half of '07.

我所說的出貨量在 08 年上半年與 07 年下半年相比呈上升趨勢。

That was a correct statement.

那是一個正確的說法。

Okay.

好的。

I just wanted to make sure it's for Lam and it's not for the industry itself?

我只是想確保它是為 Lam 而不是為行業本身？

Well, I'm talking about what Lam is going to do, but now that you've asked it, I believe that spending for equipment will see a similar trend.

嗯，我說的是林要做什麼，但既然你問了，我相信設備支出也會出現類似的趨勢。

That the spending that customers will do in the first half will be higher levels of spending for equipment than in the second half of '07.

客戶將在上半年進行的支出將比 07 年下半年更高的設備支出水平。

Okay.

好的。

A question for Martin as a follow-up, how much minimum cash do you need to run the business?

馬丁的後續問題是，您需要多少最低現金來經營業務？

It's a good question and it's one that I've for the last three years successfully avoided answering for a variety of reasons.

這是一個很好的問題，而且在過去的三年裡，由於各種原因，我成功地避免回答這個問題。

Obviously, from an operational point of view, we have a level of performance in the company and a business model that allows us to generate substantially more cash than we are currently investing in R&D and such from an organic growth point of view.

顯然，從運營的角度來看，從有機增長的角度來看，我們的公司業績水平和商業模式使我們能夠產生比我們目前在研發等方面的投資更多的現金。

So the technical answer to the question is, not very much.

所以這個問題的技術答案是，不是很多。

Obviously, there are kind of liquidity needs for every legal entity around the world, but that's a very administrative answer to the question.

顯然，世界各地的每個法律實體都有流動性需求，但這是對這個問題的一個非常行政的回答。

What I tended to do and, I think the cash balance is and the decisions we made, particularly in the March and June quarters this year give you the best frame of reference for answering that question.

我傾向於做的事情，我認為現金餘額和我們做出的決定，特別是在今年 3 月和 6 月的季度，為您回答這個問題提供了最佳參考框架。

We have not taken the cash balance of the company down below $0.5 billion.

我們沒有將公司的現金餘額降至 5 億美元以下。

That isn't a direct answer to your question, but it's a reasonable data point relative to getting some frame work for modeling going forward.

這不是您問題的直接答案，但相對於為未來的建模獲取一些框架而言，這是一個合理的數據點。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

A couple things.

幾件事。

Steve, I guess if I look at your guidance, it looks like OpEx has to actually grow on down revenue.

史蒂夫，我想如果我看看你的指導，看起來運營支出實際上必須在收入下降的情況下增長。

And it seems like you're kind of at a similar revenue to last September.

看起來你的收入與去年 9 月差不多。

So September '06.

所以 06 年 9 月。

And the OpEx was about $20 million higher than it was then and it seems like -- it seems like maybe you've moved some of the variability in the model, the COGS looks pretty variable, but it looks like OpEx now is going up and it's kind of more fixed.

OpEx 比當時高出約 2000 萬美元，看起來 - 似乎你已經移動了模型中的一些可變性，COGS 看起來很可變，但現在看起來 OpEx 正在上升它更固定。

So I guess I'm wondering, is there some kind of a structural change there, and is that just going to last for a couple of quarters, or is my mast math wrong?

所以我想我想知道，那裡是否存在某種結構性變化，這種變化會持續幾個季度，還是我的桅杆數學錯了？

I think your math is reasonably correct.

我認為你的數學是相當正確的。

We have a lot of variability in our OpEx.

我們的 OpEx 有很多可變性。

We're choosing not to apply it at this point in time.

我們現在選擇不應用它。

Significantly, we have been increasing our investments systematically, quarter over quarter, not only in Etch, but obviously in our new product activities associated with the fact that all of our new products that we've talked about are in penetration modes, which means that they're fundamentally shipping evaluation units, which obviously carry additional cost expense to support those evaluations, along with a number of products that were in unreleased modes, where the material expense activity in R&D were higher than what we would expect to see at some point in time in the future.

重要的是，我們一直在系統地增加我們的投資，一個季度一個季度，不僅在 Etch，而且顯然在我們的新產品活動中，因為我們談到的所有新產品都處於滲透模式，這意味著他們基本上是在運送評估單元，這顯然會帶來額外的成本費用來支持這些評估，以及一些處於未發布模式的產品，其中研發中的材料費用活動高於我們預期在某個時候看到的在未來的時間。

So as we go forward, as we monitor what the customer demand environment is, we have significant variability available to us in the OpEx area to drive that down, but we're just currently choosing not to, but you're correct, that's why -- even though our margins are staying up, the operating income is dropping a little bit.

因此，隨著我們繼續前進，當我們監控客戶需求環境時，我們在運營支出領域有很大的可變性可以降低這一點，但我們目前只是選擇不這樣做，但你是對的，這就是為什麼——儘管我們的利潤率保持上升，但營業收入卻略有下降。

One of the other reasons why we're keeping that operation expense spending up is, I believe that the way that a company optimizes its ability to deliver superior operational and financial performances are the investments that you make during slowdown periods in the cycle.

我們保持運營費用支出增加的其他原因之一是，我相信公司優化其提供卓越運營和財務業績的能力的方式是您在周期放緩期間進行的投資。

And as you know, we're very focused on the achievement of our $4 billion revenue objective in 2010.

如您所知，我們非常專注於在 2010 年實現 40 億美元的收入目標。

We believe that we're going to see some stronger spending environments in 2009 versus the environment that we expect for spending in 2008.

我們相信，我們將在 2009 年看到一些比我們預期的 2008 年支出環境更強勁的支出環境。

We are going to make the investments in infrastructure, both human resource as well as systems and other capital investments in 2008, so that we are going to be well-positioned for accelerated revenue growth as those opportunities are expected to present themselves more in the future.

我們將在 2008 年對基礎設施進行投資，包括人力資源以及系統和其他資本投資，以便我們為加速收入增長做好準備，因為這些機會預計會在未來更多地出現.

Okay.

好的。

I guess since the OpEx really is key to the new products then, I think, Steve, you said before that you had shipped enough product to revenue $80 million this year for the new products.

我想既然運營支出確實是新產品的關鍵，那麼我認為，史蒂夫，你之前說過你已經為今年的新產品出貨了足夠的產品，為新產品帶來了 8000 萬美元的收入。

So I guess is that still the case?

所以我想現在還是這樣嗎？

And what are the metrics you're using to basically evaluate the new products, whether you continue to invest or whether you stop investing?

您使用什麼指標來基本評估新產品，是繼續投資還是停止投資？

Our target earlier in the year was to revenue $80 million.

今年早些時候，我們的目標是收入 8000 萬美元。

At the analyst event at SEMICON West, we said that we would not be revenuing $80 million, but that we had -- we were going to be shipping into the marketplace the equivalent of $80 million in shipment value, but because the vast majority of those tools are going into evaluations and that the evaluation periods that we're experiencing with customers relative to penetrating for 4X-type technology nodes, that we're not going to be revenuing that much in calendar year '07, and that we would expect our revenue ramp to occur more in the middle of '08 as those eval systems convert to revenue and as we win those evaluation judgments, and that we would be shipping systems that would be for production purposes and they would revenue as soon as they went through a start-up qualification.

在 SEMICON West 的分析師活動中，我們說我們不會獲得 8000 萬美元的收入，但我們已經——我們將向市場出貨相當於 8000 萬美元的出貨價值，但因為其中絕大多數工具正在進入評估階段，我們與客戶一起經歷的評估期相對於 4X 型技術節點的滲透，我們不會在 07 日曆年獲得那麼多收入，我們希望我們的08 年中期，隨著這些評估系統轉化為收入以及我們贏得了這些評估判斷，收入增長將更多地發生，並且我們將交付用於生產目的的系統，一旦它們通過創業資格。

So that's the scenario that we're in, and the way that we evaluate the success that we're having is not really a function of how quickly we revenue.

所以這就是我們所處的場景，我們評估我們所取得的成功的方式並不是我們收入速度的函數。

We evaluate it two ways.

我們以兩種方式評估它。

One, how many opportunities are we being given by customers who say I want one of your tools to be brought in for an extensive and comprehensive evaluation activity, and two, once that occurs, we measure our success by how many of those evaluations we convert.

第一，客戶給了我們多少機會，他們說我希望引入您的一種工具來進行廣泛而全面的評估活動，第二，一旦發生這種情況，我們會通過轉換多少評估來衡量我們的成功.

So to date we're essentially on track to the penetration rates that we wanted to achieve and we have not had any unsuccessful evaluations where the return of the equipment has occurred.

因此，到目前為止，我們基本上已經步入了我們想要達到的滲透率的軌道上，並且在設備退回的情況下，我們還沒有進行任何不成功的評估。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Harlan Sur。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good afternoon and nice job on the quarterly execution.

下午好，季度執行工作做得很好。

Steve, as you look at first half '08 WSE spend and your shipments being higher than first half of this year, I'm just wondering what are the segments that are going to be the drivers?

史蒂夫，當您查看 08 年上半年 WSE 的支出以及您的出貨量高於今年上半年時，我只是想知道哪些細分市場將成為驅動因素？

I'm assuming it's going to be primarily NAND and some foundries, but your view would be helpful here.

我假設它將主要是 NAND 和一些代工廠，但您的觀點在這裡會有所幫助。

Harlan, you're talking about what we think the drivers will be for first half spending in 2008?

Harlan，你是在談論我們認為司機在 2008 年上半年的支出是多少？

Yep, exactly.

是的，正是。

Okay.

好的。

And thank you for your earlier comment.

並感謝您之前的評論。

I think clearly NAND is going to be a major driver as it relates to memory and I expect that DRAM spending will have a multiple quarter decline environment.

我認為 NAND 顯然將成為與內存相關的主要驅動力，我預計 DRAM 支出將出現多個季度下降的環境。

How much that decline is and how long that decline is, I think, we're going to see it play out as a function of what the demand environment is, particularly this quarter, so that when we look at excess capacity in DRAM at the end of the year, that's going to say a lot for how fast the rate of additional shipments for DRAM occur in the first half.

我認為，這種下降幅度和持續時間將取決於需求環境，尤其是本季度，因此當我們在 DRAM 產能過剩時看到到今年年底，這將說明上半年 DRAM 額外出貨量的速度有多快。

I do think that both logic, microprocessor, and foundry are going to be higher in the first half of '08 than what has shipped in and is planned to be shipped in for the second half.

我確實認為邏輯、微處理器和代工廠在 08 年上半年都將高於已發貨併計劃在下半年發貨的產品。

So I think all of the segments will be up with the exception of DRAM.

所以我認為除了 DRAM 之外，所有的細分市場都會上漲。

Your next question comes from Jay Deahna with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jay Deahna。

Good afternoon, Steve and Martin.

下午好，史蒂夫和馬丁。

A couple of questions here.

這裡有幾個問題。

Based on the completely reported financials through the March quarter, it looks like the bookings peaked in the December quarter around $779 million, and looking at your shipment trends, I think it would be fairly safe to assume that orders declined for the most part in the March, June, and September quarters.

根據完整報告的整個 3 月季度的財務狀況，看起來訂單量在 12 月季度達到峰值，約為 7.79 億美元，從您的發貨趨勢來看，我認為可以相當安全地假設訂單在3 月、6 月和 9 月季度。

Now, with the expectation for shipments to be up in the first half of '08, one would think that orders would have to be up in the fourth quarter.

現在，由於預計 08 年上半年的出貨量會增加，人們會認為第四季度的訂單必須增加。

Does that logic make sense, generically speaking, and if so, do you view that as some sort of a cyclical turn?

一般而言，這種邏輯是否有意義，如果是這樣，您是否認為這是某種週期性的轉變？

That's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

The second question is, was your cash flow in the September quarter somewhere in the neighborhood of $300 million?

第二個問題是，您在 9 月季度的現金流量是否在 3 億美元左右？

And then I've got a follow-up.

然後我有一個跟進。

Okay.

好的。

So I'll have Martin answer the cash flow question.

所以我會讓馬丁回答現金流問題。

Jay, you are always very inventive in how you are always trying to get me to comment on orders.

傑，你總是很有創意，總是試圖讓我對訂單發表評論。

As all of you know, I don't comment on orders, but certainly if our shipments have been guided down 5 to 10, and that the shipments are going to trend upward in the first half, I think it would be fair to say that there is a cyclical turn that is in fact occurring, and I think our shipment's perspectives would support that.

大家都知道，我不評論訂單，但是如果我們的出貨量被引導下降5到10，並且出貨量在上半年呈上升趨勢，我認為這樣說是公平的實際上正在發生週期性轉變，我認為我們的出貨量觀點將支持這一點。

So Martin, maybe you can comment on the cash flow?

那麼馬丁，也許你可以評論一下現金流？

The cash, I'll give you a couple of precise numbers that we did report in June and again today.

現金，我會給你幾個準確的數字，我們在 6 月和今天再次報告過。

We had a gross cash balance in June of 103.1, net 780 and you'll remember we have about $250 million of debt outstanding at June, and that balance is still the debt of the company at the end of the September.

我們在 6 月份的總現金餘額為 103.1，淨值為 780，您會記得我們在 6 月份有大約 2.5 億美元的未償債務，而該餘額仍然是公司在 9 月底的債務。

The gross cash balance at the end of September is 127.1, with the $250 debt, that's net of 102.0.

9 月底的總現金餘額為 127.1，加上 250 美元的債務，減去 102.0。

And there really only are three elements to the change of cash in the quarter.

本季度現金變化實際上只有三個要素。

One is the CapEx of $11 million, one of them is the cash coming into the company from equity, which is $14 million, as I stated, and the balance is more or less a statement of cash from the business.

一個是 1100 萬美元的資本支出，其中一個是來自股權的現金，即 1400 萬美元，正如我所說，餘額或多或少是來自企業的現金報表。

Our next question comes from C.J.

我們的下一個問題來自 C.J.

Muse with Lehman Brothers.

雷曼兄弟的繆斯女神。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Yes, good afternoon.

是的，下午好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Steve, I would love to dig a little deeper on your outlook for flat WFE in 2008.

史蒂夫，我很想更深入地了解您對 2008 年持平 WFE 的展望。

If I'm assume the memory is down about 10%, and memory running about 65% clip.

如果我假設內存下降了大約 10%，並且內存運行了大約 65% 剪輯。

That would suggest you view logic/foundry combined growing at least 20% in 2008.

這表明你認為 2008 年邏輯/代工加起來至少增長了 20%。

I guess all our checks suggest it would be down.

我想我們所有的檢查都表明它會下降。

So I'm curious what gives you the confidence to not only see strength there, but 20%-type strength?

所以我很好奇是什麼讓你有信心不僅看到那裡的力量，而且看到 20% 類型的力量？

Well, I think that -- it's a good question and I always try to put in some qualifiers, but nobody ever hears them.

嗯，我認為——這是一個很好的問題，我總是嘗試加入一些限定詞，但沒有人聽到它們。

Things like, at this point in time, if customers do what they say, it's likely, or the potential, et cetera.

例如，在這個時間點，如果客戶按照他們所說的去做，它是可能的，或者是潛在的，等等。

So that's why I've kind of characterized 2008 as flattish.

這就是為什麼我將 2008 年描述為平淡無奇的原因。

Flattish, you could read plus or minus 5%, because I think, here we are, it's October, and we're all trying to figure out what's the world going to look like when it's all over in 2008.

平淡無奇，你可以讀到正負 5%，因為我認為，現在是 10 月，我們都在試圖弄清楚 2008 年結束後的世界會是什麼樣子。

The reality is, I think we have a pretty good feel for what the first half will look like, and when I say pretty good, I mean the reality is, we're at that point in the cycle where, as we talked about earlier, I think we're at an inflection point, but you've got -- you've got a lot of customers who are very much taking advantage of the fact that the cycle times in the supply chain are very short and so you see a lot of changes in terms of people saying pull me in, two or three weeks, push me out two to four weeks.

現實是，我認為我們對上半年的情況有很好的感覺，當我說很好時，我的意思是現實是，正如我們之前所說，我們正處於週期的那個階段，我認為我們正處於一個轉折點，但是你有 - 你有很多客戶非常利用供應鏈中的周期時間非常短的事實，所以你看到人們說拉我進去，兩到三週，把我推出去兩到四個星期，這方面發生了很多變化。

So it's a really fluid and dynamic environment, relative to what's happening between any one quarter.

因此，相對於任何一個季度之間發生的情況而言，這是一個非常流動和動態的環境。

So I kind of like to talk in terms of trends.

所以我有點喜歡談論趨勢。

Second half of '07 versus first half of '08.

07 年下半年與 08 年上半年。

So while I'm reasonably confident that we are at an inflection point, that we're going to see shipments rise in the first half of '08, what they're going to do in the second half of '08, I think it's all going to be a function of what is the demand environment that customers have experienced in that first half, but more importantly, what is the expectation for the seasonality of the demand environment for the second half of '08.

因此，雖然我有理由相信我們正處於一個拐點，我們將看到 08 年上半年的出貨量增加，他們將在 08 年下半年做什麼，我認為這是所有這些都將取決於客戶在上半年經歷的需求環境，但更重要的是，對 08 年下半年需求環境的季節性預期是多少。

And if that is a positive environment, then I think that we'll see the CapEx come in flat.

如果這是一個積極的環境，那麼我認為我們會看到資本支出持平。

If it's -- if the demands are falling off, then I think we could see CapEx fall.

如果是 - 如果需求下降，那麼我認為我們可以看到資本支出下降。

And if for some reason the demand environment is exceptionally strong, then you could see that 5% increase.

如果由於某種原因需求環境異常強勁，那麼您可能會看到 5% 的增長。

So I'm just trying to give people a perspective that this is the ballpark of where we think wafer fab equipment spending will be, but we're just going to have to see it play out.

所以我只是想給人們一個觀點，這是我們認為晶圓廠設備支出的大致情況，但我們只需要看到它發揮作用。

Our next question comes from Steve O'Rourke with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve O'Rourke。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

Can you comment about backlog at the end of your fiscal year in June?

您能否對 6 月財年末的積壓問題發表評論？

Martin, do you have any comments about that you would like to make?

馬丁，您對此有何評論？

We're going to stay with the commentary of the last quarter.

我們將繼續關注上一季度的評論。

I think Pelayo asked it then.

我想佩拉約當時就問過了。

That is a audited financial statement data point and I realize that it is a slightly different data point than a revenue item, but we're going to preserve the authenticity of that process and so I'm afraid to say you're going to have to wait on that until the K is filed.

這是一個經審計的財務報表數據點，我意識到它與收入項目的數據點略有不同，但我們將保持該過程的真實性，所以我不敢說你會有等到 K 提交。

Our next question comes from Jim Covello with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jim Covello。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, guys.

大家好。

Thanks so much for taking the question.

非常感謝您提出這個問題。

Steve, can I just follow up on issue about the '08 outlook.

史蒂夫，我可以跟進關於 08 年展望的問題嗎？

There are a number of companies now that have come out and provided hard guidance, all of which is down real significantly for 2008, and the other companies that have that haven't provided hard guidance have certainly made implications about declines, whether they're significant or not can be argued, but declines for 2008.

現在有許多公司出來並提供了硬性指導，所有這些公司在 2008 年都大幅下降，而其他沒有提供硬性指導的公司當然也對下降產生了影響，無論它們是重要與否可以爭論，但在 2008 年有所下降。

There really isn't anybody out there who's suggesting increases for 2008.

真的沒有人建議2008年增加。

So if you take the hard guidance, the actual formal guidance from the five or six DRAM companies who are down 30 to 50 and the processor companies which are suggested down a little bit and the foundry companies that are suggested down a little bit, I still don't see where you get the flat for the full year.

所以如果你接受硬指導，實際的正式指導來自五六家下降 30 到 50 的 DRAM 公司和建議下降一點的處理器公司和建議下降一點的代工公司，我仍然看不到你在哪裡買了一整年的公寓。

And I could be missing something and certainly the companies could be changing their minds versus what they previously indicated.

而且我可能會遺漏一些東西，當然這些公司可能會改變他們的想法，而不是他們之前表示的。

But they have indicated pretty hard numbers so far.

但到目前為止，他們已經給出了相當硬的數字。

Well, I think that in terms of official guidance, I'm not sure I would have the same opinion in terms of five or six DRAM companies giving official guidance.

好吧，我認為在官方指導方面，我不確定我是否會在五六家DRAM公司提供官方指導方面持有相同的意見。

Certainly, Micron, because they're fiscal year '07 ended, talked about what they expected to spend in fiscal year '08, and I realize that for Micron, they indicated that their spending would be down, which we've been expecting for a long, long time.

當然，美光，因為他們在 07 財年結束，談到了他們在 08 財年的預期支出，我意識到對於美光，他們表示他們的支出會下降，這是我們一直期待的很長很長時間。

That's not a surprise or a change, because Micron's investment in 2007 was very significant as they got the IMFT activity going.

這並不意外或改變，因為美光在 2007 年的投資非常重要，因為他們推動了 IMFT 的活動。

And so when Micron says, look, we may spend -- although I don't think they specifically broke it out, but it's kind of been calculated that maybe their DRAM investment will be down 50%.

所以當美光說，看，我們可能會花錢——雖然我不認為他們特別打破了它，但據計算，他們的 DRAM 投資可能會下降 50%。

I think that we all ought to recognize that Micron's been very public in stating that their emphasis on a going-forward basis the to increase the percentage of their business in the NAND Flash arena and to have less emphasis on DRAM and so I would expect that their amount of investment into DRAM would in fact decline and in fact would decline more than what other companies would typically do.

我認為我們都應該認識到美光非常公開地表示他們強調未來的基礎是增加他們在 NAND 閃存領域的業務百分比並減少對 DRAM 的重視，所以我預計他們對 DRAM 的投資量實際上會下降，而且實際上會比其他公司通常所做的下降更多。

So I think it's very -- I don't think it's necessarily appropriate to take the anticipated 50% decline in DRAM spending by Micron and apply that across the board to all of the other DRAM companies.

所以我認為這是非常 - 我認為將美光預期的 DRAM 支出下降 50% 並將其全面應用於所有其他 DRAM 公司並不一定合適。

My conversations that I've had with a number of memory suppliers, some of whom are both DRAM and NAND/Flash is far more supportive of an environment where they intend to maintain their spending in memory in 2008 and I think that all of these things that people say are subject to change, no question, but I think that I don't want to speak for any specific company, but I can tell you that my discussions with most of these guys is that the expected rate of decline in DRAM is not anything close to 50%, it's probably closer to 30% down for DRAM, but that NAND Flash is going to be up very significantly, so that the expected environment for total memory is down, as I said, 10 to 15%.

我與許多內存供應商進行的對話，其中一些既是 DRAM 又是 NAND/Flash 更支持他們打算在 2008 年維持內存支出的環境，我認為所有這些事情毫無疑問，人們所說的可能會發生變化，但我認為我不想代表任何特定的公司，但我可以告訴你，我與這些人中的大多數人的討論是，DRAM 的預期下降速度是不是接近 50%，DRAM 可能會下降接近 30%，但 NAND 閃存將非常顯著地上升，因此總內存的預期環境下降，正如我所說的，下降 10% 到 15%。

Now, comments relative to logic and foundry, I mean, we'll see how that plays out.

現在，關於邏輯和代工的評論，我的意思是，我們將看看結果如何。

But I do believe that we've seen a delay in the move to end use customers adopting 65 nanometer devices and I believe that we're going to see that environment change and that's going to cause the foundries to have to go and make kind of a somewhat long-anticipated expansion in their wafer stock capability at 65 nanometer.

但我確實相信，我們看到最終用戶採用 65 納米器件的進程有所延遲，我相信我們將看到環境發生變化，這將導致代工廠不得不去製造他們在 65 納米的晶圓庫存能力得到了一些期待已久的擴展。

So I believe the foundries will spend probably somewhere around a 25% increase in spending in 2008 versus 2007, and I think that microprocessor is likely to be up, given the strength of what we expect to be happening in the PC and server arena, and logic, which has been really investing at a very slow pace, I expect that it could easily be up 20%.

所以我相信代工廠在 2008 年的支出可能會比 2007 年增加 25% 左右，而且我認為微處理器可能會上升，因為我們期望在 PC 和服務器領域發生的事情的強度，以及邏輯，它一直在以非常緩慢的速度進行投資，我預計它很容易上漲 20%。

So whether that actually plays out, that's at least our view at this point in time.

因此，無論這是否真正發揮作用，這至少是我們目前的觀點。

Our next question comes from Robert Maire with Needham.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert Maire 和 Needham。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

We had a relatively low point in the Yen/Dollar exchange rate and in past cycles we've seen better performance versus the Japanese companies.

我們的日元/美元匯率處於相對低點，在過去的周期中，我們看到與日本公司相比表現更好。

Could you give us your view as to if you've seen any help from the current weak dollar, especially given [Tell] as your competitor?

您能否告訴我們您是否從當前疲軟的美元中看到了任何幫助，尤其是考慮到 [Tell] 作為您的競爭對手？

I realize that a lot of decisions are purely technology-based, but there are others that are certainly price-based.

我意識到很多決策純粹是基於技術的，但也有其他的肯定是基於價格的。

And though it may be denominated in dollars, it does somewhat limit their ability the discount.

雖然它可能以美元計價，但它確實在一定程度上限制了他們的折扣能力。

That's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

The second question is, given the precipitous drop we've seen in memory pricing does that accelerate the decision point for memory manufacturers to upgrade their 200-millimeter fabs?

第二個問題是，鑑於我們看到的內存價格急劇下降，這是否會加速內存製造商升級其 200 毫米晶圓廠的決策點？

Maybe you could give us your opinion as to where we are currently in the 200-millimeter -- is everybody below marginal or cash costs, or what does that do?

也許您可以就我們目前在 200 毫米的位置給出您的意見——每個人都低於邊際成本或現金成本，或者這有什麼作用？

Okay.

好的。

I will address the memory segment, but before I do that, I'll have Martin talk to you about what our thoughts are about the yen/dollar exchange rate and how we deal with that.

我將討論記憶部分，但在此之前，我將讓 Martin 與您談談我們對日元/美元匯率的看法以及我們如何處理它。

Martin?

馬丁?

Directly to your question, Robert, it's a really tough question to answer because the fact is we are gaining share against them and articulating how much of that share gain is a function of any advantage that we have on currency versus performance-based advantage is perhaps a thankless task.

直接回答你的問題，羅伯特，這是一個非常難以回答的問題，因為事實是我們正在獲得與他們對抗的份額，並且闡明這種份額收益中有多少是我們在貨幣與基於績效的優勢方面所擁有的任何優勢的函數吃力不討好的任務。

Inevitably, there is some commercial benefit for us relative to managing the risk and opportunity and getting predictability in our financial statements, we have still a fairly significant amount of yen-based pricing on systems.

不可避免地，相對於管理風險和機會以及在我們的財務報表中獲得可預測性，我們有一些商業利益，我們仍然有相當多的基於日元的系統定價。

Obviously, a lot of our installed base revenue streams are yen-based and we have a, I would say a very successful hedge program associated with entering an order and locking in a known statement of profitability through a collection of cash.

顯然，我們的許多安裝基礎收入流都是基於日元的，我們有一個非常成功的對沖計劃，與輸入訂單和通過收集現金鎖定已知的盈利能力聲明相關。

So we've got, I think, a very balanced statement of currency in the company, generally, in the case of yen, we have a hedge program.

因此，我認為，我們在公司有一個非常平衡的貨幣報表，一般來說，就日元而言，我們有一個對沖計劃。

I don't quite know how directly to answer your question.

我不太清楚如何直接回答你的問題。

I, of course, hope that the hypothesis in your question is a legitimate one and hope that the trend in currency in that regard continues to give us favor, but it's a little academic for us to say isolate the gain on market share and try to articulate what it means from a corns currency point of view.

當然，我希望您問題中的假設是一個合理的假設，並希望這方面的貨幣趨勢繼續給我們帶來好處，但我們說孤立市場份額的收益並試圖從玉米貨幣的角度闡明它的含義。

Relative to your question about the pricing environment and the cost to produce memory devices on 200 millimeter, we think that we are at a point where on DRAMs, you're really below the cash cost to produce on 200-millimeter.

相對於您關於定價環境和在 200 毫米上生產存儲設備的成本的問題，我們認為在 DRAM 上，您的現金成本確實低於在 200 毫米上生產的現金成本。

So in 2007, we think probably 2 billion of wafer fab equipment was invested in converting 200-millimeter capacity to 300-millimeter.

因此，在 2007 年，我們認為可能投資了 20 億晶圓廠設備來將 200 毫米產能轉換為 300 毫米產能。

A lot of it was Micron as they moved aggressively to 300-millimeter and converted some of that production to CMOS sensors and other types of devices.

其中很大一部分是美光，因為他們積極轉向 300 毫米，並將其中的一些產品轉換為 CMOS 傳感器和其他類型的設備。

We also believe that in Taiwan, it's all 300-millimeter on memory.

我們也相信在台灣，內存都是300毫米。

So in 2008, we expect it's going to be a very strong year to move probably about 130,000 300-millimeter equivalent wafer starts of 200-millimeter production out.

因此，在 2008 年，我們預計這將是非常強勁的一年，大約 130,000 片 300 毫米等效晶圓開始生產 200 毫米。

And that means the need to spend about $4.5 billion of wafer fab equipment just to replace that idled 200-millimeter memory output.

這意味著需要花費大約 45 億美元的晶圓廠設備來更換閒置的 200 毫米內存輸出。

So clearly, Hynix, which has a very large 200-millimeter installed base is going to move aggressively to a stronger 300-millimeter position.

很明顯，擁有非常大的 200 毫米安裝基礎的海力士將積極轉向更強大的 300 毫米位置。

Toshiba will take a lot of their remaining 200-millimeter, and that's one of the reasons we see the very strong investment in the Y4 ramp in Yokichi, and then Samsung will continue to reduce their 200-millimeter DRAM.

東芝將佔用大量剩餘的 200 毫米 DRAM，這也是我們看到在 Yokichi 的 Y4 坡道投資非常強勁的原因之一，然後三星將繼續減少其 200 毫米 DRAM。

So I expect a strong conversation here in 2008.

所以我期待 2008 年在這裡進行一次強有力的對話。

Operator, we have time for two more questions.

接線員，我們有時間再回答兩個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Mark FitzGerald with Banc of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Mark FitzGerald。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

I'm just curious, given the guidance for shipments being up in the first half, would you expect seasonality here given the consumer electronics driven aspects of the chip industry at this point and then kind of a repeat of the 2007 quarterly performance where the second half of '08 is down significantly, because all the spending's concentrated in the first half?

我只是好奇，考慮到上半年出貨量的增長預期，考慮到芯片行業的消費電子驅動方面，您是否會期望這裡的季節性，然後是 2007 年季度表現的重複，其中第二個08年上半年明顯下降，因為所有的支出都集中在上半年？

No, I don't think, Mark, that we -- the industry is not yet really that kind of squared away in terms of those kind of consistent spending patterns.

不，我不認為，馬克，就那些一致的支出模式而言，我們這個行業還沒有真正達到那種水平。

Because I think that we've seen situations where second halves of years have been stronger than first half of years.

因為我認為我們已經看到下半年比上半年強的情況。

I do think that what you really have in terms of a first half of '08 being likely up from the second half of '07 is largely a function of the fact that DRAM spending has begun its decline.

我確實認為，08 年上半年可能比 07 年下半年有所上升，這在很大程度上是由於 DRAM 支出已經開始下降這一事實。

The foundries have been really modestly investing and we're down half over half.

代工廠一直在進行適度的投資，而我們的投資減少了一半以上。

And so when I say say -- that the spending is up, I don't think that the spending is up dramatically, I think it's just -- it's trending up and it's moving upwards and if you're going end to the year flat, if you look at the trend of a big first half '06 and a weaker second half '06, if you have a slightly up first half -- I'm sorry, yes -- I'm sorry, '07.

所以當我說 - 支出增加時，我認為支出並沒有急劇增加，我認為只是 - 它呈上升趨勢並且正在上升，如果你要在年底持平，如果你看一下 06 年上半年大漲和 06 年下半年走弱的趨勢，如果上半年略有上漲——對不起，是的——對不起，07 年。

If you have a slightly up first half '08, you can have a slightly up second half of '08 and you would kind end the year flattish as a function of that.

如果您在 08 年上半年略微上漲，那麼您在 08 年下半年可能會略微上漲，並且您會因此而在年底持平。

So I think what'll happen is if the demand environment is weak, then the second half of '08 will tend to be weak.

所以我認為如果需求環境疲軟，08 年下半年將趨於疲軟。

But if the demand environment is as expected or strong, then you will see in the middle of the year, you'll see the investment for capital expansion go up.

但如果需求環境如預期或強勁，那麼你會在年中看到，你會看到資本擴張的投資增加。

Our final question comes from Tim Summers with Stanford Group.

我們的最後一個問題來自斯坦福集團的 Tim Summers。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Just staying on the DRAM topic, Steve, as you look at DRAM spending in '08, do you anticipate it being front-half loaded and some tail off in the second half, or in fact would you expect it to be reversed, stronger second half versus first half?

只是停留在 DRAM 話題上，史蒂夫，當您查看 08 年的 DRAM 支出時，您是否預計它會在下半年加載前半部分並有所下降，或者實際上您是否預計它會逆轉，更強第二一半與上半場？

Well, that's kind of a good question.

嗯，這是一個很好的問題。

I mean, clearly, what we're seeing is that the spending for additional equipment for DRAM is in a downward trend and it's one that I think has been anticipated.

我的意思是，很明顯，我們看到的是 DRAM 額外設備的支出呈下降趨勢，我認為這是可以預料的。

I think it's good, and I think the first half of DRAM will be less spending than the second half of '07 was.

我認為這很好，而且我認為 DRAM 上半年的支出會比 07 年下半年少。

My expectation is that we'll see that at least flatten out and it's likely that DRAM spending in the second half of '08 will be stronger.

我的預期是，我們至少會看到這種情況趨於平緩，08 年下半年的 DRAM 支出可能會更加強勁。

But again, spending a lot of time in October of 2007 trying to speculate on what the second half of '08 is, I'm not sure how useful an exercise that is.

但同樣，在 2007 年 10 月花了很多時間試圖推測 08 年下半年是什麼，我不確定這有多大用處。

Operator, we have time for maybe one more question and then we'll close the call.

接線員，我們有時間再回答一個問題，然後我們將結束通話。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝你，先生。

Our last question comes from Ben Pang with Caris & Company.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Caris & Company 的 Ben Pang。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Under the capital spending scenario that you proposed in 2008, where logic and other are up and memory -- net memory is down, can Lam Research still gain share?

在您在 2008 年提出的資本支出情景下，邏輯等上升而內存——淨內存下降，Lam Research 還能獲得份額嗎？

And how much of that would be due to the new product -- products?

其中有多少要歸功於新產品——產品？

Well, I mean, there's two aspects of that.

嗯，我的意思是，有兩個方面。

One, if we talk about gaining share in the wafer fab equipment market, clearly every dollar that we ship into a non-Etch market is a gain in market share for us.

第一，如果我們談論在晶圓廠設備市場獲得份額，顯然我們向非蝕刻市場投入的每一美元對我們來說都是市場份額的增加。

I don't think that's necessarily going to be significant and we'll talk more about what we expect our new products to do in 2008 in the January conference call.

我認為這不一定很重要，我們將在 1 月份的電話會議上更多地討論我們期望我們的新產品在 2008 年實現的功能。

But as it relates to Etch, we expect as a function of the market share application wins that I talked about in my prepared comments, that we have the ability to pick up a couple of more market share points.

但由於它與 Etch 相關，我們預計作為我在準備好的評論中談到的市場份額應用程序獲勝的函數，我們有能力獲得更多的市場份額點。

At certain points in 2008, it's going to be a function of mix, because in any given year, depending upon who's spending, that can affect things, but if the logic/foundry arena goes up, our market share in logic and foundry is very similar, if not the same, as our market share in memory.

在 2008 年的某些時候，它將成為混合的函數，因為在任何一年，這取決於誰的支出，這可能會影響事情，但如果邏輯/代工領域上升，我們在邏輯和代工方面的市場份額非常與我們在內存中的市場份額相似，如果不相同的話。

So as foundry/logic becomes a greater percentage, it will not be a drag on our market share and it may in fact, depending upon how well we do with some other application win opportunities, could very well be additive to it.

因此，隨著代工/邏輯變得更大的比例，它不會拖累我們的市場份額，事實上，取決於我們在其他一些應用程序贏得機會方面做得如何，它很可能會增加它。

But at a minimum, we'll be able to hold share, because it's a very balanced share between memory and logic foundry.

但至少，我們將能夠保持份額，因為這是內存和邏輯代工廠之間非常平衡的份額。

We'd like to thank you all for joining us today.

我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。

There will be a replay of this call available on our Web site from 5:00 p.m.

從下午 5:00 起，我們的網站將重播這次通話。

and that will remain posted for 90 days.

這將保持發布 90 天。

This concludes our call.

我們的電話到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude Lam's September quarter financial results conference call.

女士們先生們，這確實結束了林的 9 月季度財務業績電話會議。

You may now disconnect, and we thank you for using AT&T Teleconferencing.

您現在可以斷開連接，我們感謝您使用 AT&T 電話會議。