勞氏公司 (LOW) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Lowe's Companies Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

各位早上好，歡迎來到勞氏公司 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。

My name is Rob, and I'll be your operator for today's call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

我叫 Rob，今天的電話我是你的接線員。提醒一下，這次會議正在錄製中。

I will now turn the call over to Kate Pearlman, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管凱特珀爾曼。

Thank you, and good morning. Here with me today are Marvin Ellison, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Bill Boltz, our Executive Vice President, Merchandising; Joe McFarland, our Executive Vice President, Stores; and Brandon Sink, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，早上好。今天和我在一起的是董事長兼首席執行官馬文·埃里森 (Marvin Ellison)； Bill Boltz，我們的營銷執行副總裁； Joe McFarland，我們的門店執行副總裁；和我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Brandon Sink。

I would like to remind you that our notice regarding forward-looking statements is included in our press release this morning, which can be found on Lowe's Investor Relations website.

我想提醒您，我們關於前瞻性陳述的通知已包含在今天上午的新聞稿中，您可以在 Lowe 的投資者關係網站上找到該新聞稿。

During the call, we will be making comments that are forward-looking, including our expectations for fiscal 2023. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied as a result of various risks, uncertainties and important factors, including those discussed in the risk factors, MD&A and other sections of our annual report on Form 10-K and our other SEC filings.

在電話會議期間，我們將發表前瞻性評論，包括我們對 2023 財年的預期。由於各種風險、不確定性和重要因素（包括風險中討論的內容），實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異因素、MD&A 和我們關於 10-K 表格的年度報告的其他部分以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。

Additionally, we'll be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these items to U.S. GAAP can be found on the quarterly earnings section of our Investor Relations website.

此外，我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些項目與美國公認會計原則的對賬可以在我們的投資者關係網站的季度收益部分找到。

Now I'll turn the call over to Marvin.

現在我將電話轉給馬文。

Thank you, Kate, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, our total company comparable sales declined 1.5%, while U.S. comps decreased 0.7%.

謝謝你，凱特，大家早上好。第四季度，我們公司的可比銷售額總額下降了 1.5%，而美國的可比銷售額下降了 0.7%。

For the quarter, commodity deflation impacted U.S. comps by 75 basis points. Our investments in the Pro customers continue to pay dividends for the company reflected by our continued strong Pro sales in the fourth quarter. In fact, this is the 11th consecutive quarter that we've driven double-digit Pro growth in the U.S. despite stronger-than-expected commodity deflation.

本季度，大宗商品通貨緊縮對美國 comps 的影響達 75 個基點。我們對專業客戶的投資繼續為公司帶來紅利，這反映在我們第四季度持續強勁的專業銷售中。事實上，這是我們連續第 11 個季度在美國推動兩位數的 Pro 增長，儘管商品通貨緊縮強於預期。

And while there was continued solid DIY demand in core home improvement categories, as expected, we saw a DIY pullback on holiday gift buying. Despite a modest decrease in sales, we once again improved our adjusted operating margin by maintaining our disciplined focus on productivity.

儘管核心家居裝修類別的 DIY 需求持續強勁，但正如預期的那樣，我們看到節日禮物購買量出現 DIY 回落。儘管銷售額略有下降，但我們通過保持對生產力的嚴格關注，再次提高了調整後的營業利潤率。

During the quarter, adjusted operating margin expanded approximately 88 basis points leading to adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.28, a 28% increase compared to last year. These results cap off solid financial performance for fiscal 2022 with sales of $97.1 billion, adjusted operating margin of 13%, and adjusted earnings per share of $13.81 up 15% over the prior year.

本季度，調整後的營業利潤率擴大了約 88 個基點，導致調整後的攤薄每股收益為 2.28 美元，比去年增長 28%。這些結果為 2022 財年穩健的財務業績畫上了句號，銷售額為 971 億美元，調整後營業利潤率為 13%，調整後每股收益為 13.81 美元，比上年增長 15%。

With these results, we're awarding $220 million in discretionary and profit-sharing bonuses to our associates, which includes an incremental $70 million for our assistant store managers and supply chain supervisors who hold 2 of the most critical frontline leadership roles in the company. This builds on our recent $170 million investment in permanent wage increases for our frontline, hourly associates, which went into effect in December.

有了這些結果，我們將向我們的員工發放 2.2 億美元的酌情獎金和利潤分享獎金，其中包括為擔任公司兩個最關鍵的前線領導職務的助理商店經理和供應鍊主管增加的 7000 萬美元。這是建立在我們最近投資 1.7 億美元為我們的前線小時工永久性加薪的基礎上的，該投資於 12 月生效。

Since 2018, we've invested over $3 billion in incremental wages and share-based compensation for our frontline associates, including increasing associate wages by over 20%. And as we mentioned at our December Analyst and Investor Conference, we are committed to additional frontline wage investments over the next several years, which are contemplated in our long-term targets. These compensation investments are just one reflection of our commitment to becoming the employer of choice in retail, which Joe will discuss in more detail.

自 2018 年以來，我們已為一線員工增加了超過 30 億美元的工資和基於股份的薪酬，包括將員工工資提高了 20% 以上。正如我們在 12 月的分析師和投資者會議上提到的那樣，我們致力於在未來幾年內進行額外的一線工資投資，這在我們的長期目標中有所考慮。這些薪酬投資只是我們致力於成為零售業首選雇主的承諾的一種體現，Joe 將對此進行更詳細的討論。

Throughout the quarter, we continued to gain traction with our Total Home Strategy as consumers remain engaged in home-related activities. In Pro, we delivered U.S. growth of 10% and 36% on a 2-year basis. We are capitalizing on our momentum with our Pro by growing our MVPs Pro Rewards and Partnership Program, building relationships through our CRM tool and continuing to enhance our product assortment to meet Pro needs.

在整個季度中，隨著消費者繼續參與與家庭相關的活動，我們的整體家庭戰略繼續獲得牽引力。在 Pro 中，我們在 2 年的基礎上實現了 10% 和 36% 的美國增長。我們通過發展我們的 MVP Pro 獎勵和合作夥伴計劃、通過我們的 CRM 工具建立關係並繼續增強我們的產品種類以滿足 Pro 需求，從而利用我們 Pro 的勢頭。

One example of enhancing our Pro product assortment is the exciting news that client tools will be coming back to Lowe's. We know that our Pros are officially loyal to certain national brands and Klein is the #1 hand tool brand among electrical and HVAC professionals. This creates immediate credibility across trades. Bill will share more detail on this exciting addition to our assortment later in the call.

增強我們的 Pro 產品種類的一個例子是客戶工具將回到 Lowe's 的令人振奮的消息。我們知道我們的專業人士正式忠於某些國家品牌，而 Klein 是電氣和 HVAC 專業人士中排名第一的手動工具品牌。這在交易中創造了即時的可信度。 Bill 將在稍後的電話會議中分享更多關於這一激動人心的產品的詳細信息。

Now one question many of you have asked is about our Pro backlog and if they're still healthy. We're in constant communication with our Pros through formal surveys, our Pro counsel and countless day-to-day conversations. In our January survey, more than 70% of Pros stated that they were booked out the same or more compared to 2022, and they remain confident in their ability to find jobs and hold on to their backlog. We believe this dynamic is being fueled by all the things we talked about at our December Analyst and Investor Conference, which includes homeowners with strong balance sheets and record levels of equity.

現在你們中的許多人問的一個問題是關於我們的 Pro 積壓以及它們是否仍然健康。我們通過正式調查、我們的專業顧問和無數的日常對話與我們的專業人士保持持續溝通。在我們 1 月份的調查中，超過 70% 的專業人士表示，與 2022 年相比，他們的預訂量與 2022 年相同或更多，他們對自己找到工作和保留積壓工作的能力仍然充滿信心。我們認為，我們在 12 月的分析師和投資者會議上討論的所有事情都推動了這種動態，其中包括擁有強勁資產負債表和創紀錄資產水平的房主。

On Lowes.com, sales grew 5% on top of 11.5% growth in the fourth quarter of 2021, partly due to strong appliance sales. This represents a 2-year comp of 17% and more than 11% sales penetration. We continue to remove friction from the customers' online experience, which includes adding Apple Pay this quarter to improve conversion.

在 Lowes.com 上，銷售額在 2021 年第四季度增長 11.5% 的基礎上增長了 5%，部分原因是家電銷售強勁。這代表 2 年的 17% 和超過 11% 的銷售滲透率。我們繼續消除客戶在線體驗中的摩擦，包括在本季度添加 Apple Pay 以提高轉化率。

We're also focused on removing friction from our customers' omnichannel shopping journeys, like for appliances where customers often shop our showrooms before making their purchase online. We also continue to make strides in the rollout of our market delivery model for appliances and other big and bulky products.

我們還專注於消除客戶全渠道購物旅程中的摩擦，例如客戶經常在網上購買之前先到我們的陳列室購買電器。我們還在推出我們的電器和其他大型產品的市場交付模式方面繼續取得長足進步。

We added 2 new geographic areas this quarter, bringing us to 10 geographic regions across the country supporting more than 1,000 stores. And as a reminder, in the market-based delivery model, big and bulky products flow from our supply chain directly to customers' homes replacing our inefficient store delivery model. This delivery model is enabling us to further consolidate our industry leadership position in appliances and it positions us for profitable growth and other big and bulky product categories like grills, riding lawnmowers and stock cabinets.

本季度我們增加了 2 個新的地理區域，使我們在全國 10 個地理區域支持 1,000 多家商店。提醒一下，在基於市場的交付模式中，大而笨重的產品從我們的供應鏈直接流向客戶家中，取代了我們低效的商店交付模式。這種交付模式使我們能夠進一步鞏固我們在家電領域的行業領導地位，並使我們能夠實現盈利增長和其他大而笨重的產品類別，如烤架、騎乘式割草機和儲物櫃。

Turning to Canada. We completed the sale of our Canadian retail business to Sycamore Partners this quarter. As a result, we are now solely focused on the transformation of our U.S. business, where we estimate we have a $1 trillion addressable home improvement market, enabling us to invest more into higher-return opportunities to grow our business and to take market share. I'd like to extend my appreciation to the entire Canadian team for their commitment to serving our customers, and I wish them the best as they move forward under new ownership.

轉向加拿大。本季度我們完成了將加拿大零售業務出售給 Sycamore Partners 的交易。因此，我們現在只專注於美國業務的轉型，我們估計我們擁有 1 萬億美元的可尋址家居裝修市場，使我們能夠更多地投資於回報更高的機會，以發展我們的業務並佔據市場份額。我要感謝整個加拿大團隊致力於為我們的客戶提供服務，並希望他們在新的所有權下繼續前進時一切順利。

Before I close, I'd like to share my perspective on the home improvement market. And as you know, there is a wide range of conflicting opinions on what's going to happen in the macro environment in 2023. From our perspective, the core drivers of our business, disposable personal income, home price appreciation, and the age of housing stock, remain supportive. Consumer savings are still roughly $1.5 trillion higher than pre-pandemic with 85% concentrated in the top 40% of income earners who are more likely to be homeowners. Homeowners continue to enjoy record levels of equity in their homes, nearly $330,000 on average. Even if there is a modest decline in home prices, the level of equity built up during the pandemic would not be meaningfully eroded. And the housing stock continues to age with 50% of U.S. homes over 41 years old, the oldest since World War II.

在結束之前，我想分享一下我對家居裝修市場的看法。如您所知，對於 2023 年的宏觀環境將發生什麼，存在廣泛的相互矛盾的觀點。從我們的角度來看，我們業務的核心驅動因素是個人可支配收入、房價上漲和住房存量的年齡，繼續支持。消費者儲蓄仍比大流行前高出約 1.5 萬億美元，其中 85% 集中在收入最高的 40% 人群中，他們更有可能成為房主。房主繼續享受創紀錄的房屋淨值，平均接近 330,000 美元。即使房價小幅下跌，大流行期間建立的資產水平也不會受到明顯侵蝕。房屋存量繼續老化，50% 的美國房屋超過 41 年，這是自二戰以來最老的。

These factors, along with strong millennial household formation, baby boomers' increasing preference to age in place and more widespread remote work will continue to be tailwinds for our business.

這些因素，加上強大的千禧一代家庭形成、嬰兒潮一代越來越喜歡就地養老以及更廣泛的遠程工作，將繼續成為我們業務的順風。

And given the slowdown in housing turnover is driven by higher rates and low supply rather than demand, we continue to see a nationwide trend of trading up in place with consumers opting to upgrade their existing home to meet their evolving needs. All of these dynamics give us confidence in the medium- and longer-term outlook for the industry.

鑑於房屋成交量放緩是由利率上升和供應不足而不是需求推動的，我們繼續看到全國范圍內的交易趨勢，消費者選擇升級現有房屋以滿足不斷變化的需求。所有這些動態讓我們對該行業的中長期前景充滿信心。

That being said, we also know that consumers are weary of a potential recession, which is reflected in some of the discretionary pullback we experienced during the holiday season. We're closely monitoring trends and we have a proven playbook to pivot quickly if the macro softens.

話雖如此，我們也知道消費者對潛在的經濟衰退感到厭倦，這反映在我們在假期期間經歷的一些酌情回調中。我們正在密切關注趨勢，如果宏觀經濟走軟，我們有一套行之有效的策略可以迅速調整。

Our results in the fourth quarter demonstrate our operational agility, which is reflected in our ability to leverage expenses and deliver productivity in a negative comp sales environment. This gives our experienced leadership team confidence in our ability to effectively manage the business in a wide variety of macro scenario.

我們在第四季度的業績證明了我們的運營敏捷性，這反映在我們在不利的競爭銷售環境中利用費用和提高生產力的能力。這使我們經驗豐富的領導團隊對我們在各種宏觀情況下有效管理業務的能力充滿信心。

In closing, I'd like to thank our frontline associates for their commitment to serving customers day in and day out. As I travel to country every week visiting stores, I continue to be impressed by their passion for helping customers and their communities.

最後，我要感謝我們的一線員工日復一日地為客戶服務的承諾。當我每週去鄉下逛商店時，他們對幫助客戶及其社區的熱情給我留下了深刻的印象。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Bill.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給比爾。

Thanks, Marvin, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, U.S. comparable sales decreased slightly by 0.7%, though sales were up 34.4% on a 3-year basis, reflecting continued momentum with the Pro and resilience in core DIY home improvement demand.

謝謝，馬文，大家早上好。第四季度，美國可比銷售額略微下降 0.7%，但銷售額較 3 年增長 34.4%，反映出 Pro 的持續增長勢頭和核心 DIY 家居裝修需求的彈性。

We delivered positive comps in home decor, fueled by key categories like appliances, paint, and kitchen and bath. And we delivered strong growth in our Building Products division, excluding the impacts of commodity deflation. We are particularly encouraged by the Pro strength we're seeing across categories, including rough plumbing, building materials, paint and millwork as we continue to expand our product and service offerings to meet their needs.

在家電、油漆、廚房和浴室等關鍵類別的推動下，我們在家居裝飾方面取得了積極的成績。我們的建築產品部門實現了強勁增長，不包括商品通貨緊縮的影響。隨著我們繼續擴展我們的產品和服務以滿足他們的需求，我們對我們在各個類別中看到的 Pro 實力感到特別鼓舞，包括粗糙的管道、建築材料、油漆和木製品。

And consistent with our Total Home Strategy, we continue to add brands relevant to Pros, including 4 new partnerships. First, we're adding a portfolio of drinks from Coca-Cola to reduce the number of stops Pros make before going to the job site, which is important since time is money for these customers.

並且與我們的 Total Home Strategy 一致，我們繼續添加與 Pros 相關的品牌，包括 4 個新的合作夥伴關係。首先，我們添加了可口可樂的飲料組合，以減少專業人士在前往工作現場之前停留的次數，這很重要，因為對這些客戶來說時間就是金錢。

Second, we are adding Carhartt Apparel that's popular with both our Pro and our DIY consumer especially in our rural stores.

其次，我們正在添加 Carhartt Apparel，它在我們的專業人士和我們的 DIY 消費者中都很受歡迎，尤其是在我們的鄉村商店。

Third, we have entered a new national partnership with Hubbell, giving us access to all of their Pro branded electrical boxes, including Bell, TayMac and RACO. And fourth, we are excited to be bringing back client tools. As Marvin mentioned, this is the #1 hand tool brand among electrical and HVAC professionals. So this is just a big deal for us and our Pros.

第三，我們與 Hubbell 建立了新的國家合作夥伴關係，使我們能夠使用他們所有的 Pro 品牌電箱，包括 Bell、TayMac 和 RACO。第四，我們很高興能帶回客戶端工具。正如馬文所說，這是電氣和暖通空調專業人士中排名第一的手動工具品牌。所以這對我們和我們的專業人士來說是一件大事。

We are also really excited to announce that Lowe's will offer the widest selection of client products anywhere in the home improvement retail channel, which will be available in the second half of 2023.

我們也非常高興地宣布，Lowe's 將在家裝零售渠道的任何地方提供最廣泛的客戶產品選擇，這些產品將於 2023 年下半年上市。

Our initial selection of client tools will include hand tools and electrical test and measurement tools, followed by a multiyear rollout of new product innovations. Fine Tools, Hubble, Carhartt and Coca-Cola are strong additions to our Pro brand arsenal, which already includes other great brands like Bosch, DEWALT, Eaton, Estwing, FastenMaster, FLEX GRK, ITW, LESCO, Little Giant, Lufkin, Mansfield, Marshalltown, Metabo, SharkBite, Simpson Strong-Tie, SPAX, Spyder and Werner.

我們最初選擇的客戶工具將包括手動工具和電氣測試與測量工具，隨後將推出多年的新產品創新。 Fine Tools、Hubble、Carhartt 和 Coca-Cola 是我們 Pro 品牌庫的有力補充，其中已經包括其他偉大的品牌，如 Bosch、DEWALT、Eaton、Estwing、FastenMaster、FLEX GRK、ITW、LESCO、Little Giant、Lufkin、Mansfield、 Marshalltown、Metabo、SharkBite、Simpson Strong-Tie、SPAX、Spyder 和 Werner。

As we gain momentum with the Pro, we continue to see brands come to Lowe's and in many cases, come back to Lowe's because they recognize our newfound recommitment to the Pro and see the opportunity to grow with us.

隨著我們通過 Pro 獲得發展勢頭，我們繼續看到品牌來到 Lowe's，在許多情況下，又回到 Lowe's，因為他們認識到我們對 Pro 的新承諾，並看到了與我們一起成長的機會。

Shifting to our merchandising division performance for the quarter. In home decor, appliances, paint and kitchens and baths led the way. Appliances grew across both Pro and DIY as we continue to gain market share in this critical category. Growth was bolstered by our new instant savings capability that automatically applies supplier rebates to a customer's order, making it much easier and faster for them to take advantage of these offers, which are supported by the manufacturer. This replaces our cumbersome mail-in rebates with real-time savings, both in stores and online to remove friction for the customer and improve conversion. This innovation is another example of Lowe's leapfrogging the competition with technology that not only improves the customer experience, but also drives labor productivity.

轉向我們本季度的銷售部門業績。在家居裝飾中，電器、油漆以及廚房和浴室引領潮流。隨著我們繼續在這一關鍵類別中獲得市場份額，家電在 Pro 和 DIY 領域都有增長。我們新的即時儲蓄功能促進了增長，該功能自動將供應商回扣應用於客戶的訂單，使他們更容易、更快地利用這些由製造商支持的優惠。這取代了我們繁瑣的郵寄返利，實時節省，在商店和網上都可以消除客戶的摩擦並提高轉化率。這項創新是 Lowe's 憑藉不僅改善客戶體驗而且提高勞動生產率的技術在競爭中取得跨越式發展的另一個例子。

Paint was another standout category with solid pro-growth fueled by our MVPs Pro Paint Rewards and Pro JobSIGHT delivery. We're also seeing an uptick in paint attachments items like applicators, paint sundries and caulk as we upgrade our paint departments across our stores. This upgrade is strategically designed to make it easier for our customers to get everything they need in one trip.

油漆是另一個突出的類別，我們的 MVP Pro Paint Rewards 和 Pro JobSIGHT 交付推動了穩固的增長。隨著我們升級整個商店的油漆部門，我們還看到油漆附件項目（如塗抹器、油漆雜物和填縫劑）有所增加。此次升級的戰略設計旨在讓我們的客戶更輕鬆地在一次旅行中獲得所需的一切。

We also began the launch of STAINMASTER paint, a high-quality, high-value solution for busy families looking to protect their walls from fingerprints and other messes. This is Lowe's first-ever private brand paint and early results are already outperforming our expectations.

我們還開始推出 STAINMASTER 塗料，這是一種高品質、高價值的解決方案，適用於希望保護牆壁免受指紋和其他髒污影響的忙碌家庭。這是 Lowe 有史以來第一個自有品牌塗料，早期結果已經超出了我們的預期。

Our focus on driving private brand penetration is well timed enabling us to capitalize on the nationwide trend of increasing customer preference for private brands.

我們專注於推動自有品牌滲透的時機恰到好處，使我們能夠利用全國范圍內客戶對自有品牌的偏好不斷增加的趨勢。

Another category that outperformed this quarter is kitchens and bath. We were particularly encouraged to see a strong increase in demand for custom cabinets driven by improved lead times as well as an expanded suite of digital tools, along with our team of talented virtual designers, all of which help our customers tailor the right solutions for their budgets and design preferences.

本季度表現出色的另一個類別是廚房和浴室。我們特別高興地看到，由於交貨時間的縮短以及數字工具套件的擴展以及我們才華橫溢的虛擬設計師團隊的推動，定制櫥櫃的需求強勁增長，所有這些都幫助我們的客戶為其量身定制合適的解決方案預算和設計偏好。

Turning to the Building Products division. We delivered strong, broad-based growth, excluding the impacts of commodity deflation across copper and lumber. We delivered strong positive comps across rough plumbing, building materials and millwork driven by Pro demand and continued DIY investment in the home.

轉向建築產品部門。我們實現了強勁、基礎廣泛的增長，不包括銅和木材商品通貨緊縮的影響。在專業需求的推動下，我們在粗糙的管道、建築材料和木製品方面提供了強勁的積極補償，並繼續對家庭進行 DIY 投資。

Our performance in hard lines was consistent with broader consumer trends as we saw a decrease in holiday gift buying compared to the prior year. However, the team still delivered a solid holiday season with sell-throughs above 2019 levels. As expected, consumers reverted to more typical holiday buying patterns as compared to last year when we saw a widespread early buying due to supply chain concerns.

我們在硬線方面的表現與更廣泛的消費趨勢一致，因為我們發現與去年相比，節日禮物購買有所減少。然而，該團隊仍然交付了一個穩定的假期銷售季，銷售量高於 2019 年的水平。正如預期的那樣，與去年相比，由於供應鏈問題我們看到普遍的提前購買，消費者恢復了更典型的假日購買模式。

As we look ahead, we continue to build on our customers' preference for new and innovative products with continued enhancements to our product assortments. We are expanding on our popular Kobalt 24-Volt platform with new tools and technology that customers have been asking for, including a cordless Kobalt nailer that can instantly fire 1,100 nails on a single charge, eliminated the need to drag an air compressor and a hose around the job site.

展望未來，我們將繼續以客戶對新產品和創新產品的偏好為基礎，不斷改進我們的產品種類。我們正在使用客戶一直要求的新工具和技術擴展我們廣受歡迎的 Kobalt 24 伏平台，包括一次充電可立即射出 1,100 顆釘子的無繩 Kobalt 釘槍，無需拖拽空氣壓縮機和軟管工地周邊。

We're also excited about our new EGO zero turn radius mower with the industry's first e-STEER technology. With the sleek, intuitive steering wheel that increases the driver's control and precision, powered by the EGO battery system that now allows this unit to mow 3 acres on a single charge.

我們也對採用業界首創 e-STEER 技術的新型 EGO 零轉彎半徑割草機感到興奮。時尚、直觀的方向盤提高了駕駛員的控制力和精確度，由 EGO 電池系統提供動力，現在該裝置一次充電即可割草 3 英畝。

We are ready to capitalize on spring with the best in-stock positions that we've had in 3 years, right on time to support our biggest selling season of the year. In addition to an enhanced assortment and strong in-stock levels, we're also making strides in driving merchandising productivity as part of our enterprise-wide perpetual productivity improvement initiatives.

我們已準備好利用 3 年來最好的庫存來利用春季，準時支持我們今年最大的銷售季節。除了增強的品種和強大的庫存水平外，我們還在推動商品銷售生產力方面取得長足進步，作為我們企業範圍內永久生產力改進計劃的一部分。

As one of the larger importers in the U.S., we continue to leverage our scale and carrier relationships to secure capacity and reduce our import and domestic transportation costs. As the cost of transportation and raw materials come down, we are working with our suppliers to ensure that our prices are competitive to support sales and to protect our margins.

作為美國較大的進口商之一，我們繼續利用我們的規模和承運人關係來確保運力並降低我們的進口和國內運輸成本。隨著運輸和原材料成本的下降，我們正在與供應商合作，以確保我們的價格具有競爭力，以支持銷售並保護我們的利潤。

We have sophisticated cost optimization tools that track prices of the underlying components of the products we sell. So the teams are well informed for these discussions. We are also holding our suppliers accountable to drive out costs through their productivity just as we are doing throughout our own organization.

我們擁有復雜的成本優化工具，可以跟踪我們銷售的產品的基礎組件的價格。因此，團隊對這些討論瞭如指掌。我們還要求我們的供應商負責通過他們的生產力來降低成本，就像我們在整個組織中所做的那樣。

We are also partnering with our suppliers through our Lowe's One Roof Media Network. Some of our top suppliers have already locked in sizable contracts for 2023, and we are excited to partner with them to strategically target the home improvement shopper to drive traffic on Lowes.com and convert to sale.

我們還通過我們的 Lowe's One Roof 媒體網絡與我們的供應商合作。我們的一些頂級供應商已經鎖定了 2023 年的大量合同，我們很高興與他們合作，從戰略上瞄準家居裝修購物者，以增加 Lowes.com 上的流量並轉化為銷售。

Before I close, I'd like to extend my appreciation to our merchants and our inventory and supply chain teams, along with our vendor partners for their hard work and continued support throughout 2022. I'm looking forward to what we will accomplish together in 2023 as we continue to find ways to provide value to our shared customers.

在我結束之前，我想感謝我們的商家、我們的庫存和供應鏈團隊，以及我們的供應商合作夥伴，感謝他們在 2022 年的辛勤工作和持續支持。我期待著我們將在2023 年，我們將繼續尋找為我們共同的客戶提供價值的方法。

Thank you. And I'll now turn the call over to Joe.

謝謝。我現在將電話轉給喬。

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by thanking our associates for their unwavering commitment to serving our customers and delivering another solid year of operating results. Associates are the heart of any retailer, but even more so in our industry where customers rely on our associates' product knowledge as they look for the right solutions to repair and upgrade their homes. That's why we are so focused on becoming the employer of choice in retail, where associates chose to stay to build their careers.

謝謝你，比爾，大家早上好。首先，我要感謝我們的員工堅定不移地致力於為我們的客戶提供服務，並在今年又取得了穩健的經營業績。員工是任何零售商的核心，但在我們的行業中更是如此，客戶在尋找正確的解決方案來維修和升級他們的房屋時依賴我們員工的產品知識。這就是為什麼我們如此專注於成為零售業的首選雇主，員工選擇留下來發展他們的職業生涯。

As Marvin mentioned, we've made substantial wage investments over the last 4 years, and we constantly review each market and monitor candidate flow to help us remain competitive and maintain a robust hiring pool in all geographic areas of the company.

正如 Marvin 提到的，我們在過去 4 年中進行了大量的工資投資，並且我們不斷審查每個市場並監控候選人流動，以幫助我們保持競爭力並在公司的所有地理區域維持強大的招聘池。

Beyond competitive compensation, we offer comprehensive benefits, flexible scheduling options and bonus opportunities. As we close out the year, we are excited to award $220 million in discretionary and profit sharing bonuses. This includes $70 million for our assistant store managers and supply chain supervisors with an incremental $7,500 bonus this quarter on top of their annual incentive bonus, and we are one of only a handful of retailers to offer share-based compensation for our ASMs and which incentivizes them to build their careers at Lowe's. These critical leaders are undoubtedly some of the hardest working leaders in our company, and they are at the forefront of creating a culture focused on exceptional customer service.

除了有競爭力的薪酬，我們還提供全面的福利、靈活的排班選項和獎金機會。在我們結束這一年之際，我們很高興能夠授予 2.2 億美元的酌情獎金和利潤分享獎金。這包括為我們的助理商店經理和供應鍊主管提供的 7,000 萬美元，以及本季度在年度獎勵獎金之上增加的 7,500 美元獎金，我們是為數不多的為我們的 ASM 提供基於股份的薪酬並激勵員工的零售商之一他們在 Lowe's 建立自己的職業生涯。這些關鍵的領導者無疑是我們公司中工作最勤奮的領導者，他們處於創建專注於卓越客戶服務的文化的最前沿。

In addition to recognizing these leaders, we are also awarding $150 million to eligible hourly associates in recognition of their efforts this year. Based on continuous associate listening we also added other improvements this quarter, including sick leave for part-time associates in revamping our store break rooms with higher quality, lower-cost, food options. Our investments in our people have helped us build more than 80% of leadership positions from within over the last year with more than 90% of our store leaders starting as hourly associates.

除了表彰這些領導者外，我們還向符合條件的小時工獎勵 1.5 億美元，以表彰他們今年的努力。基於不斷傾聽員工的意見，我們在本季度還增加了其他改進，包括為兼職員工提供病假，以改進我們的商店休息室，提供更高質量、更低成本的食品選擇。我們對員工的投資幫助我們在過去一年中從內部建立了超過 80% 的領導職位，其中超過 90% 的商店領導從小時工開始。

As we enter spring, our busiest time of year, I'm pleased that we have the best staffing levels that we've had in 3 years. Our focus on associates also translates into how we're serving the Pro, which is our biggest opportunity for growth. This quarter, we launched a Know the Pro training, helping our associates understand how to better serve Pro customers across the entire store, not just at the Pro desk. This training supported storewide participation in key Q4 Pro events, including the most successful PROVember we've ever had as well as our MVPs bonus days, which exceeded expectations.

當我們進入一年中最繁忙的春天時，我很高興我們擁有 3 年來最好的人員配置水平。我們對員工的關注也轉化為我們為專業人士服務的方式，這是我們最大的增長機會。本季度，我們推出了 Know the Pro 培訓，幫助我們的員工了解如何更好地為整個商店的 Pro 客戶提供服務，而不僅僅是在 Pro 服務台。該培訓支持全店範圍參與關鍵的 Q4 Pro 活動，包括我們有史以來最成功的 PROVember 以及超出預期的 MVP 獎勵日。

I would like to thank our associates, especially our Pro team for delivering outstanding results, driving U.S. Pro comps of 10% for the quarter, 36% on a 2-year basis despite commodity deflation.

我要感謝我們的同事，尤其是我們的 Pro 團隊，他們取得了出色的成績，儘管商品通貨緊縮，但本季度 U.S. Pro comps 增長了 10%，2 年增長了 36%。

We continue to leverage our MVPs Pro Rewards and Partnership Program to capitalize on this demand by engaging Pros, incentivizing purchases and building long-term loyalty. Our program is designed to make every Pro feel like an MVP regardless of their size, giving small to midsize Pros, access to bonus points, savings and exclusive offers that they can't get elsewhere.

我們繼續利用我們的 MVP 專業獎勵和合作夥伴計劃，通過吸引專業人士、激勵購買和建立長期忠誠度來利用這一需求。我們的計劃旨在讓每一位專業人士都感覺自己是 MVP，無論他們的規模如何，為中小型專業人士提供他們無法在其他地方獲得的獎勵積分、儲蓄和獨家優惠。

We're pleased to see the results continue to exceed expectations as reflected in our 200 basis points increase in Pro customer satisfaction scores in Q4.

我們很高興看到結果繼續超出預期，這反映在我們在第四季度的 Pro 客戶滿意度得分提高了 200 個基點。

Shifting gears to our focus on productivity. We continue to make progress with our PPI or perpetual productivity improvement initiatives. One of the key objectives of PPI is simplifying our associates jobs while removing friction for our customers. This approach allows us to generate productivity and cost savings in the store while simultaneously improving customer service.

將注意力轉移到我們對生產力的關注上。我們繼續在 PPI 或永久生產力改進計劃方面取得進展。 PPI 的主要目標之一是簡化我們員工的工作，同時為我們的客戶消除摩擦。這種方法使我們能夠在商店中產生生產力和成本節約，同時改善客戶服務。

One great example of this is the transition of our outdated legacy technology to our new modern omnichannel systems. We just completed the conversion at our returns desk with easy-to-use touchscreens that enable associates to quickly scan items and process to correct return value, with the system automatically accounting for return policies and promotions. This simplifies the return experience for customers, gives our suppliers more insights to improve product quality, while also making it easier for associates to enforce our policies and manage complex returns.

一個很好的例子就是我們過時的遺留技術向我們新的現代全渠道系統的過渡。我們剛剛在我們的退貨櫃檯完成了轉換，使用易於使用的觸摸屏，使員工能夠快速掃描物品並處理以更正退貨價值，系統自動計算退貨政策和促銷活動。這簡化了客戶的退貨體驗，為我們的供應商提供更多洞察力以提高產品質量，同時也使員工更容易執行我們的政策和管理複雜的退貨。

We also continue to roll out new tools, including 90,000 additional Zebra smartphones by the end of June, to ensure all associates walking the sales floor have a device, including our MST associates.

我們還繼續推出新工具，包括到 6 月底再推出 90,000 部 Zebra 智能手機，以確保所有走進銷售大廳的員工都擁有一台設備，包括我們的 MST 員工。

Our leadership team knows that when we make things easier for our associates, they make things easier for our customers. And our new returns process is just one example of the dozens of initiatives underway to do just that. And of course, none of this would be possible without our associates.

我們的領導團隊知道，當我們讓員工的工作更輕鬆時，他們也會讓我們的客戶更輕鬆。我們的新退貨流程只是為實現這一目標而採取的數十項舉措中的一個例子。當然，如果沒有我們的同事，這一切都不可能實現。

For our associates tuning in, thank you for your ongoing focus on serving customers and driving productivity. We appreciate your hard work.

對於我們的同事，感謝您一直專注於服務客戶和提高生產力。感謝您的辛勤工作。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brandon.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給布蘭登。

Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin with our Q4 results. We generated GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.58 compared to $1.78 last year. Now my comments from this point forward will include certain non-GAAP comparisons where applicable.

謝謝你，喬，大家早上好。讓我從第四季度的結果開始。我們產生的 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 1.58 美元，而去年為 1.78 美元。現在我從這一點開始的評論將在適用的情況下包括某些非 GAAP 比較。

Excluding the $441 million of pretax transaction costs associated with the sale of our Canadian retail business, we generated adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.28, an increase of 28% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. This increase was driven by our continued focus on productivity as well as disciplined capital allocation. Q4 sales were $22.4 billion, which includes approximately $1.4 billion in sales generated in the 14th week. Comparable sales declined 1.5%.

不包括與出售我們的加拿大零售業務相關的 4.41 億美元稅前交易成本，我們的調整後攤薄每股收益為 2.28 美元，比 2021 年第四季度增長 28%。這一增長是由於我們持續關注生產力以及有紀律的資本分配。第 4 季度的銷售額為 224 億美元，其中包括第 14 週產生的約 14 億美元的銷售額。可比銷售額下降 1.5%。

U.S. comp sales were down 0.7% in the quarter with comp average ticket up 4.8% driven by product inflation and higher Pro sales partly offset by 75 basis points of lumber deflation. This was offset by a comp transaction decline of 5.5%.

本季度美國複合銷售額下降 0.7%，平均價格上漲 4.8%，原因是產品通脹和 Pro 銷售額的增加部分被木材通縮的 75 個基點所抵消。這被 comp 交易下降 5.5% 所抵消。

Sales in Canada totaled $958 million, a decline of 18% in USD on a comparable basis, partly driven by exchange rate unfavorability due to a stronger dollar and lumber deflation.

加拿大的銷售額總計 9.58 億美元，按可比美元計算下降 18%，部分原因是美元走強和木材通貨緊縮導致匯率不利。

FX represented a 25 basis point headwind to consolidated comps. Of note, both the Canadian sales decline and lumber deflation pressured our Q4 comps more than expected. U.S. Pro sales were up 10% in the quarter despite lumber and copper deflation.

FX 代表了 25 個基點的逆風對綜合比較。值得注意的是，加拿大銷售下滑和木材通貨緊縮給我們的第四季度業績帶來的壓力超過預期。儘管木材和銅通貨緊縮，本季度美國專業銷售額仍增長了 10%。

On Lowes.com, sales increased 5% in the quarter, partly driven by continued strength in appliance. Our U.S. monthly comps improved as we moved through the quarter, with comps down 3.1% in November due to DIY pullback on discretionary holiday spending. In December, comps were down 0.2%, with comps turning positive in January, up 1.4%, reflecting continued DIY investment in the home.

在 Lowes.com 上，本季度銷售額增長了 5%，部分原因是家電持續走強。我們在本季度的美國月度收入有所改善，11 月份收入下降 3.1%，原因是可自由支配的假期支出出現 DIY 回調。 12 月，收入下降 0.2%，1 月份收入轉為正值，增長 1.4%，反映出對家庭的持續 DIY 投資。

Gross margin was 32.3% of sales in the fourth quarter, down 60 basis points from last year. Product margin rate improved 15 basis points versus the prior year. Gross margins also benefited from 30 basis points of favorable product mix due to a lower percentage of lumber sales.

第四季度毛利率為銷售額的 32.3%，比去年同期下降 60 個基點。產品利潤率比上一年提高了 15 個基點。由於木材銷售百分比較低，毛利率也受益於 30 個基點的有利產品組合。

Higher product margin rate was offset by 40 basis points related to the expansion of our supply chain network, 30 basis points of pressure from shrink and 35 basis points of pressure from our private label credit portfolio.

較高的產品利潤率被與我們供應鍊網絡擴張相關的 40 個基點、收縮帶來的 30 個基點壓力和我們自有品牌信貸組合帶來的 35 個基點壓力所抵消。

Adjusted SG&A of 20.9% of sales levered 131 basis points relative to Q4 2021 despite a modest decline in sales as we executed on our PPI initiatives across the company.

調整後的 SG&A 佔銷售額的 20.9%，相對於 2021 年第四季度槓桿化了 131 個基點，儘管我們在全公司執行 PPI 計劃時銷售額略有下降。

Adjusted operating margin rate of 9.6% of sales levered 88 basis points as adjusted SG&A leverage was partly offset by lower gross margin rate.

調整後的營業利潤率為銷售額的 9.6%，槓桿率為 88 個基點，因為調整後的 SG&A 槓桿被較低的毛利率部分抵消。

The adjusted effective tax rate was 24% below prior year levels. Inventory ended the quarter at $18.5 billion, which now solely reflects the inventory for our U.S. business as we closed on the sale of the Canadian retail business on February 3.

調整後的有效稅率比上年水平低 24%。本季度末庫存為 185 億美元，現在僅反映了我們在 2 月 3 日結束出售加拿大零售業務時美國業務的庫存。

Inventory is up $0.9 billion from the same quarter last year, largely driven by product inflation with units down slightly to prior year. We continue to shift our inventory mix more towards Pro categories as we invest to drive future growth.

存貨比去年同期增加 9 億美元，這主要是受產品價格上漲的推動，出貨量比去年同期略有下降。隨著我們投資推動未來增長，我們繼續將我們的庫存組合更多地轉向專業類別。

Now let me turn to capital allocation. In 2022, we generated $6.8 billion in free cash flow driven by outstanding operating results, and we returned $16.5 billion to our shareholders through both share repurchases and dividends.

現在讓我談談資本配置。 2022 年，我們在出色的經營業績推動下產生了 68 億美元的自由現金流，並通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了 165 億美元。

During the fourth quarter, we paid $643 million in dividends at $1.05 per share and repurchased 10 million shares for $2 billion. This brought the total to $14.1 billion in share repurchases for the year, ahead of our expectations for approximately $13 billion. This reflected better-than-expected operating performance and our commitment to return excess cash to shareholders.

第四季度，我們以每股 1.05 美元的價格支付了 6.43 億美元的股息，並以 20 億美元的價格回購了 1000 萬股股票。這使今年的股票回購總額達到 141 億美元，高於我們預期的約 130 億美元。這反映出好於預期的經營業績以及我們向股東返還多餘現金的承諾。

We ended the quarter at 2.44x adjusted debt-to-EBITDA. And finally, we delivered return on invested capital of 30.4%, inclusive of an 800 basis point impact related to transaction cost associated with the sale of our Canadian retail business.

我們以 2.44 倍的調整後債務與 EBITDA 比率結束了本季度。最後，我們實現了 30.4% 的投資資本回報率，其中包括與出售加拿大零售業務相關的交易成本相關的 800 個基點影響。

Turning to our 2023 financial outlook, which we introduced this morning. As Marvin indicated, the long-term outlook for home improvement remains strong. However, in 2023, residential investment will be under some pressure. Given elevated levels of inflation, higher interest rates and a more cautious consumer, we are forecasting a slight decline in the home improvement market.

轉向我們今天上午介紹的 2023 年財務展望。正如馬文所指出的，家居裝修的長期前景依然強勁。不過，2023年住宅投資將面臨一定壓力。鑑於通貨膨脹水平升高、利率上升和消費者更加謹慎，我們預測家居裝修市場將略有下滑。

We expect to continue to outperform the market in 2023 with sales ranging from $88 billion to $90 billion. Comparable sales are expected to be in a range of flat to down 2%. Keep in mind that 2023 comparable sales will be calculated based on weeks 2 through 53 in fiscal 2022.

我們預計 2023 年將繼續跑贏市場，銷售額在 880 億美元至 900 億美元之間。預計可比銷售額將持平至下降 2%。請記住，2023 年的可比銷售額將根據 2022 財年的第 2 周至第 53 週計算。

Pro sales growth is expected to exceed DIY again in 2023 as we expect to continue to outpace the broader Pro market growth by 2x. We will continue to build on our momentum with the Pro with our new MVPs Pro Loyalty Program, CRM tools, and our expanded Pro brand lineup. We are expecting operating margin in the range of 13.6% to 13.8% as we continue to drive productivity through our PPI initiatives across the organization in part to offset our planned wage investments.

專業銷售增長預計將在 2023 年再次超過 DIY，因為我們預計將繼續超過更廣泛的專業市場增長 2 倍。我們將通過我們新的 MVP Pro 忠誠度計劃、CRM 工具和我們擴展的 Pro 品牌陣容，繼續在 Pro 上建立我們的勢頭。我們預計營業利潤率在 13.6% 至 13.8% 之間，因為我們將繼續通過整個組織的 PPI 計劃來提高生產力，部分抵消我們計劃的工資投資。

For 2023, we are expecting to invest $350 million in incremental wages for our frontline associates, which includes the 2023 portion of the $170 million permanent wage investment that went into effect in December.

到 2023 年，我們預計將投資 3.5 億美元用於一線員工的增量工資，其中包括 12 月生效的 1.7 億美元永久性工資投資中的 2023 年部分。

We expect capital expenditures of up to $2 billion this year and with our planned share repurchases -- we also expect to reach our 2.75x leverage target in 2023, while maintaining our BBB+ credit rating. Our strong operating performance and shareholder-focused capital allocation strategy is expected to deliver approximately $13.60 to $14 in earnings per share for the year.

我們預計今年的資本支出將高達 20 億美元，並且我們計劃進行股票回購——我們還預計在 2023 年達到 2.75 倍的槓桿率目標，同時維持我們的 BBB+ 信用評級。我們強勁的經營業績和以股東為中心的資本配置戰略預計今年每股收益約為 13.60 美元至 14 美元。

Keep in mind that there was an approximate $0.25 contribution to adjusted EPS from the 53rd week in our Canadian business in 2022. I would like to spend a moment discussing our expectations for first half performance, which is an easier comparison from a sales perspective.

請記住，從 2022 年的第 53 週開始，我們的加拿大業務對調整後每股收益的貢獻約為 0.25 美元。我想花點時間討論一下我們對上半年業績的預期，從銷售的角度來看，這是一個更容易的比較。

However, when we consider the impact of lower lumber prices, we are expecting a nearly 300 basis point headwind to sales in the first quarter and a 100 basis point headwind to sales in the second quarter. Given these impacts, we expect our first quarter sales comps to be below our full year guidance range and our second quarter sales comps to be above our full year guidance range.

然而，當我們考慮到較低的木材價格的影響時，我們預計第一季度的銷售將出現近 300 個基點的逆風，第二季度將出現 100 個基點的逆風。鑑於這些影響，我們預計第一季度的銷售業績將低於我們的全年指導範圍，第二季度的銷售業績將高於我們的全年指導範圍。

In closing, I'm confident that the combination of our strong operating results and our shareholder-focused capital allocation strategies will continue to deliver meaningful, long-term shareholder value.

最後，我相信，我們強勁的經營業績和以股東為中心的資本配置戰略相結合，將繼續為股東帶來有意義的長期價值。

And with that, we will open it up for questions.

有了這個，我們將開放它以供提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question is from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Simeon Gutman。

First, I have a macro and then a micro question. So you just comped -- roughly minus -- minus 1 in the U.S. with some rounding and the midpoint of the guide is minus 1. I know the monthlies -- when Brandon gave the monthlies that kind of answered it.

首先，我有一個宏觀問題，然後是一個微觀問題。所以你只是在美國 - 大致負 - 負 1 進行了一些四捨五入，而指南的中點是負 1。我知道月刊 - 當布蘭登給出月刊時這樣回答了它。

But ignoring comparisons, I guess the guidance assumes that largely the backdrop holds up. And I wanted to re-question that, given some of the deceleration in some of the housing metrics. So -- and what drives that?

但忽略比較，我猜該指南假設在很大程度上背景成立。考慮到一些住房指標的減速，我想重新質疑這一點。那麼——是什麼驅動了它？

I'll take the first part, Simeon. I'll kind of go back to what I said in some of the prepared comments. When we take a look at what our demand drivers are for home improvement -- and just to be specific, these are historical demand drivers that have held up over time. They still remain supportive.

我來做第一部分，Simeon。我會回到我在一些準備好的評論中所說的話。當我們審視家居裝修的需求驅動因素時——具體來說，這些是隨著時間的推移一直存在的歷史需求驅動因素。他們仍然保持支持。

And things like disposable personal income, which I mentioned, is roughly $1.5 trillion in savings above pre-pandemic levels. The average equity in U.S. homes, roughly $330,000 on average, the age of homes, and a reminder, 2/3 of everything we sell is nondiscretionary. And there are other tailwinds, millennial household, formation trend, baby boomers, aging in place, and more widespread, sustainable remote work. So all of these things give us some confidence that the backdrop remains supportive.

我提到的可支配個人收入之類的東西比大流行前的水平節省了大約 1.5 萬億美元。美國房屋的平均資產，平均約為 330,000 美元，房屋的年齡，提醒一下，我們出售的所有東西中有 2/3 是非自由支配的。還有其他順風，千禧一代家庭，形成趨勢，嬰兒潮一代，就地老齡化以及更廣泛，可持續的遠程工作。因此，所有這些都讓我們有信心，相信背景仍然是有利的。

But as Brandon said, we still have some degree of caution when we think about discretionary buying, and that is factored into the guide.

但正如 Brandon 所說，當我們考慮可自由支配的購買時，我們仍然會保持一定程度的謹慎，這已被納入指南。

So I'll let Brandon add anything additional to that.

所以我會讓 Brandon 添加任何額外的內容。

Yes, Simeon, this is Brandon. I'll talk to your question specifically on Q4. As I said in the prepared remarks, inflation, interest rates, we are seeing a bit more of a cautious consumer, one that's anticipating and responding to value.

是的，西蒙，這是布蘭登。我會專門在第四季度討論你的問題。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，通貨膨脹、利率，我們看到了一個更加謹慎的消費者，一個對價值有預期和反應的消費者。

We saw this play out in November with discretionary holiday categories, but we did see a nice progression of performance across the quarter as we hit the January exit. And we continue to see solid DIY demand in core home improvement categories like appliances.

我們在 11 月看到了這種情況，可自由選擇假期類別，但隨著我們在 1 月退出，我們確實看到整個季度的業績取得了不錯的進展。我們繼續看到家電等核心家居裝修類別的強勁 DIY 需求。

So as we turn and look at the guide in the next year, we feel comfortable with what we're seeing in Q4, very much in line with what we shared back in December in terms of the moderate scenario. And it's consistent with the market being down, call it, low single digits 2% to 3%. So I think we got a lot of good consistency with what we're seeing again in Q4 with what we're anticipating for the full year next year.

因此，當我們轉而查看明年的指南時，我們對我們在第四季度看到的情況感到滿意，這與我們在 12 月就溫和情景分享的內容非常一致。這與市場下跌是一致的，稱之為低個位數 2% 至 3%。因此，我認為我們在第四季度再次看到的情況與我們對明年全年的預期非常一致。

Okay. And the follow-up is more micro. Within this, the long-term guidance that you gave in December, the 14.5% to 15%, there's about $150 million to $200 million or so from OpEx productivity and then I think the -- some of the PPI initiatives. And I guess that's the stuff you can control.

好的。而後續更微觀。其中，您在 12 月給出的長期指導，即 14.5% 到 15%，OpEx 生產力大約有 1.5 億到 2 億美元左右，然後我認為 - 一些 PPI 計劃。我想這就是你可以控制的東西。

I forget, if we discussed, if that's ratable. Meaning even across the time frame or are there things that you can pull forward this year or any year, if you need it? And/or is the cost environment going up such that it makes the achievement of that bucket any different?

我忘了，如果我們討論過，如果那是可評價的。意思是即使在整個時間範圍內，或者如果您需要，今年或任何一年您是否可以推進一些事情？和/或成本環境是否在上升，從而使該桶的實現有任何不同？

Yes. Simeon, I would say ratable as we look at the 3-year period with what we shared in December. I mean, when we look at the algorithm for the guide for '23, we are expecting roughly flat gross margin. So the bulk of the 60 to 80 basis points of EBIT expansion that's reflected in the guide is coming from SG&A leverage, and it's being largely driven by our productivity initiatives.

是的。 Simeon，當我們回顧我們在 12 月分享的 3 年期間時，我會說是可評價的。我的意思是，當我們查看 23 年指南的算法時，我們預計毛利率大致持平。因此，指南中反映的 EBIT 擴張的 60 到 80 個基點中的大部分來自 SG&A 槓桿，並且主要是由我們的生產力計劃推動的。

So that's specifically just translating and transitioning from what we shared on the 3-year to what we're expecting from an SG&A standpoint in '23.

因此，這只是將我們在 3 年分享的內容轉化和過渡到我們在 23 年從 SG&A 的角度所期望的內容。

And Simeon, this is Marvin. The only thing I'll add is, if you take a look at Q4, just as an example, it just -- it shows that even in a flat to negative sales environment, we still have the ability to leverage productivity, whether that's expenses or operating margin. And I think that is consistent with the PPI initiatives not being solely focused in one functional area, but as you heard at our December Analyst and Investor Conference, it's across all functions, merchandising, supply chains, to operations.

西蒙，這是馬文。我要補充的唯一一件事是，如果你看一下第四季度，作為一個例子，它只是 - 它表明即使在持平到負面的銷售環境中，我們仍然有能力利用生產力，無論是費用或營業利潤率。我認為這與 PPI 舉措是一致的，PPI 舉措不僅僅關註一個職能領域，但正如你在我們 12 月的分析師和投資者會議上聽到的那樣，它涉及所有職能、銷售、供應鍊和運營。

And so although it's ratable, we're very confident in our ability to deliver upon that in a variety of macro scenarios.

因此，儘管它是可評價的，但我們對我們在各種宏觀場景中實現這一目標的能力非常有信心。

Next question is from the line of Kate McShane with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Kate McShane 與 Goldman Sachs 的合作。

This is Patrick Hollander on for Kate. We just wanted to ask about price elasticity. Another item discussed at the December Analyst Day was kind of the confidence in prices sticking but your competitor mentioned that they saw more price sensitivity in the fourth quarter than they had in the third quarter.

這是凱特的帕特里克霍蘭德。我們只是想問一下價格彈性。 12 月分析師日討論的另一個項目是對價格堅挺的信心，但您的競爭對手提到他們在第四季度看到的價格敏感性高於第三季度。

So first, are you guys seeing something similar? And then how do you address some of the price sensitivity, do prices need to come down? Will we see more markdown activity?

首先，你們看到類似的東西了嗎？然後你如何解決一些價格敏感性問題，價格是否需要下降？我們會看到更多的降價活動嗎？

Yes. Patrick, this is Brandon. As it relates to the question on elasticity, stepping back, we look at the last 3 years through the pandemic, we saw consumers who were very resilient with higher prices, not necessarily impacting demand that we were seeing for our business.

是的。帕特里克，這是布蘭登。由於涉及彈性問題，退一步說，我們回顧了過去 3 年的大流行病，我們看到消費者對價格上漲非常有彈性，不一定會影響我們對業務的需求。

As I mentioned in the last response, we are seeing more normal consumer trends with consumers anticipating and responding to value. So as we look at '23, we are expecting a modest inflation lift across the portfolio. Most of that is going to be wrap of inflation that we're seeing in 2022 lapping into 2023.

正如我在上次回復中提到的，我們看到更多正常的消費趨勢，消費者對價值有預期和反應。因此，當我們展望 23 年時，我們預計整個投資組合的通貨膨脹率將適度上升。其中大部分將是我們在 2022 年看到的通貨膨脹到 2023 年的總結。

We're expecting that inflation to continue to slow, and we're seeing minimal activity in terms of new pipeline requests coming in from our supplier base. And that inflation is going to impact mostly first half as those benefits are expected to normalize as we move through the year, next year.

我們預計通貨膨脹將繼續放緩，並且我們看到來自供應商群的新管道請求方面的活動很少。通貨膨脹將主要影響上半年，因為這些收益預計會隨著我們明年的到來而正常化。

And then on the transaction side, we expect that inflation to be offset by a modest decline in transactions, which we also expect to see that improve across the year. So we're looking back half of the year and then into 2024 a more traditional balance between ticket and transaction.

然後在交易方面，我們預計通貨膨脹將被交易量的適度下降所抵消，我們也預計全年交易量都會有所改善。因此，我們回顧了半年，然後回顧 2024 年，在機票和交易之間取得更傳統的平衡。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Ciccarelli with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Ciccarelli 與 Truist 的對話。

This is Joe on for Scott. I was really impressed by the Pro commentary. I was just wondering, is there any sort of regional thing that you'd break out whether or not people are more or less bullish on their outlooks and backlogs in areas where there's been more housing price correction?

這是斯科特的喬。 Pro評論給我留下了深刻的印象。我只是想知道，在房價調整較多的地區，人們是否或多或少地看好他們的前景和積壓的訂單，是否有任何類型的區域性問題？

So Joe, good question. What I'll tell you, there are a couple of markets around the country that had a more accelerated, what I would call, appreciation of home prices during the pandemic. And let's call out markets like South Florida, Phoenix, as an example.

喬，問得好。我要告訴你的是，在大流行期間，全國有幾個市場的房價升值速度更快，我稱之為升值。讓我們以南佛羅里達州、鳳凰城等市場為例。

And as you can imagine, we pay really close attention to those markets. We've not seen any material difference in sales performance in those markets as those prices tend to come -- are coming down than in the broader U.S.

正如您可以想像的那樣，我們非常關注這些市場。我們沒有看到這些市場的銷售業績有任何實質性差異，因為這些價格往往會下降——比美國更廣泛的價格要下降。

And so when I cited the statistic that 70% of our Pros in our survey from January are very confident in their backlog being consistent to last year and being able to sustain it, that is pretty much a universal statement across all geographies.

因此，當我引用統計數據表明，在我們從 1 月份開始的調查中，70% 的專業人士對他們的積壓工作與去年保持一致並能夠維持下去非常有信心，這幾乎是所有地區的普遍說法。

What I can tell you is that we're very pleased with the performance of our MVP Loyalty Program and how it's sustaining and giving us the ability to drive sales. And I'll let Joe just touch a little bit on that program and how we think that's going to allow us to build loyalty and continue to grow this very important business.

我可以告訴你的是，我們對 MVP 忠誠度計劃的表現以及它如何維持並賦予我們推動銷售的能力感到非常滿意。我會讓喬稍微談談這個項目，以及我們認為這將如何讓我們建立忠誠度並繼續發展這個非常重要的業務。

Yes. Thanks, Marvin. And Joe, thanks for the question. As it relates to the Pro and the market, Marvin made his prepared comments. But as you dig deeper, there's kind of 5 key areas that we look at, which is the jobs how far out the Pro is booked in the next 6 months. Materials, can they get what they need and is it the right cost? Can they get to Pro Credit? What does the labor market look like? And then just the balance of the type of work they do.

是的。謝謝，馬文。喬，謝謝你的提問。由於它涉及到 Pro 和市場，Marvin 發表了他準備好的評論。但當你深入挖掘時，我們會關注 5 個關鍵領域，即未來 6 個月內 Pro 的預訂量。材料，他們能得到他們需要的嗎？這是正確的成本嗎？他們可以獲得 Pro Credit 嗎？勞動力市場是什麼樣的？然後就是他們所做的工作類型的平衡。

So remodel versus new construction. And as we track these and as we roll out our Pro loyalty program, we're pleased with the trajectory of the business and the health of this small Pro that we're servicing.

所以改造與新建。當我們跟踪這些並推出我們的 Pro 忠誠度計劃時，我們對業務軌跡和我們正在服務的這個小型 Pro 的健康狀況感到滿意。

Our next question is from the line of Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brian Nagel 與 Oppenheimer 的合作。

I apologize. My question may sound like similar prior questions. Going back to the comments made by your competitor last week, they discussed what -- they termed kind of broadening, if you will, of consumer normalization, consumer weakness.

我道歉。我的問題聽起來像是類似的先前問題。回到你的競爭對手上週發表的評論，他們討論了什麼——他們稱之為擴大消費者正常化，消費者弱點。

You called out weakness around the holiday, the gift giving, discretionary. But are you -- would you characterize also seeing that, what they discussed in this kind of this broadening, a weakness in normalization across your portfolio?

你在假期、送禮、自由裁量權周圍大聲疾呼。但是你 - 你是否也會看到他們在這種擴大中討論的內容，你的投資組合正常化的弱點？

Brian, it's a fair question. And I'd start off by saying Q4 is typically our highest discretionary selling period of the year because of the holiday season. But when we look at core home improvement categories, we feel really good about the performance of the DIY customer.

布賴恩，這是一個公平的問題。我首先要說的是，由於假日季節，第四季度通常是我們一年中最高的自主銷售期。但當我們審視核心家居裝修類別時，我們對 DIY 客戶的表現感覺非常好。

And I think as Brandon gave that monthly comp cadence for the fourth quarter, you notice that every month, the business performed stronger with a positive comp in January, and that was almost directly correlated to the DIY customer being stronger each month of the quarter because we moved away from that discretionary period that was so heavily focused on the month of November because of holiday buy.

而且我認為，當布蘭登給出第四季度的月度補償節奏時，你會注意到，每個月，該業務在 1 月份的表現都比較好，並且 comp 為正，而這幾乎與本季度每個月的 DIY 客戶都比較強大直接相關，因為我們擺脫了由於假期購買而非常關注 11 月份的自由裁量期。

So as we look at the overall customer, we look at the health of the DIY discretionary spending. We don't see any really red flags that we're concerned about because the core home improvement discretionary categories held up really well for us, case in point, appliances, case in point, paint. So those are areas that really performed well. And I'll let Brandon add any additional comments.

因此，當我們審視整體客戶時，我們會審視 DIY 可自由支配支出的健康狀況。我們沒有看到任何真正值得我們關注的危險信號，因為核心的家庭裝修自由支配類別對我們來說非常好，例如，電器，例如，油漆。所以這些是真正表現良好的領域。我會讓 Brandon 添加任何其他評論。

Yes. Brian, I'll just connect that to the guide, Marvin highlighted with what we're seeing more with the DIY customer. But just looking at the Pro and expectations into '23, continuing to outpace DIY 11 quarters in a row, double-digit comp, we're continuing to see Pro across all ticket ranges, both comp and transaction growth.

是的。布賴恩，我只是將其與指南聯繫起來，馬文強調了我們在 DIY 客戶中看到的更多內容。但只要看看 Pro 和對 23 年的期望，連續 11 個季度超過 DIY，兩位數的 comp，我們將繼續看到 Pro 在所有門票範圍內，包括 comp 和交易增長。

And while we did see DIY lag in 2022 in the discretionary category, some of what Marvin was describing, we are seeing those overall transactions continue to improve across the year. So when we look at '23, still expecting outperformance with the Pro but expecting that gap between Pro and DIY to continue to close and tighten, and that's what's reflected in our guide for next year.

雖然我們確實看到 2022 年 DIY 在非必需品類別中出現滯後，但正如馬文所描述的那樣，我們看到這些整體交易在全年繼續改善。因此，當我們回顧 23 年時，仍然期待 Pro 的出色表現，但期待 Pro 和 DIY 之間的差距繼續縮小和縮小，這就是我們明年的指南中所反映的。

That's very helpful. And then my follow-up question, just with regard to lumber prices. So you discussed here -- and we get it, this is kind of a pass-along dynamic when prices declined as a negative for sales.

這很有幫助。然後是關於木材價格的後續問題。所以你在這裡討論過——我們明白了，當價格下跌對銷售不利時，這是一種傳遞動力。

But if we've gotten to the point where lumber prices have declined so much of -- that's actually becoming a potential stimulant to demand, I don't know if you're seeing this in your business or maybe in some of pooling of your professional customers?

但是，如果我們已經到了木材價格下跌如此之多的地步——這實際上正在成為需求的潛在刺激因素，我不知道你是否在你的業務中看到了這一點，或者可能在你的一些匯集中看到了這一點專業客戶？

Yes, Brian, I'll take that and, again, kind of connect it to the guide. So our guide at the midpoint for lumber, in particular, assumes a normalized pricing environment, certainly considered to what we've seen for the last [30] years.

是的，布賴恩，我會接受它，然後再一次將它與指南聯繫起來。因此，我們的木材中點指南特別假設了一個標準化的定價環境，當然考慮了我們在過去 [30] 年所看到的情況。

And within that lumber assumption, as you heard in my prepared remarks, expecting headwind in both Q1 and Q2. And I'll call out also if that -- when we look at lumber pricing currently, if that were to play out across the remainder of the year, it actually puts another 100 basis points of pressure on the midpoint of the guide.

正如你在我準備好的發言中所聽到的那樣，在這個木材假設中，預計第一季度和第二季度都會出現逆風。我還要指出的是——當我們查看目前的木材定價時，如果在今年剩餘時間裡出現這種情況，它實際上會給指南的中點帶來另外 100 個基點的壓力。

But to your point, within that, we are expecting an offset in units, and there's potential that, that could be a stimulant for our business. But again, right now, we're expecting and have considered at the midpoint of our guide, just more normalized pricing and a slight rebound in units in the next year.

但就您的觀點而言，在此範圍內，我們預計會出現單位抵消，並且有可能成為我們業務的興奮劑。但同樣，現在，我們預計並在我們的指南的中點考慮過，只是更正常的定價和明年單位的小幅反彈。

The next question comes from the line of Karen Short with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Karen Short。

So just on 2 questions. You guided to flat to down 2% comps. So that was kind of in between the robust and moderate scenarios that you offered. And then your margins, though, are only on the moderate range, not the robust range. So I'm wondering if you could give any color on that.

所以只有兩個問題。您指導持平至下跌 2%。因此，這介於您提供的穩健場景和適度場景之間。但是，您的利潤率僅處於中等範圍內，而不是強勁範圍內。所以我想知道你是否可以給它任何顏色。

And then on the wage investments that you called out. Obviously, one of your competitors also announced very sizable wage investments. So wondering if you could just give a little color on your wage investment versus industry and/or one of your largest competitors.

然後是您提出的工資投資。顯然，您的一個競爭對手也宣布了非常可觀的工資投資。所以想知道您是否可以對您的工資投資與行業和/或您最大的競爭對手之一進行一些比較。

So Karen, this is Marvin. I'll take the wage question, then I'll let Brandon take the first part of the question.

凱倫，這是馬文。我將回答工資問題，然後讓布蘭登回答問題的第一部分。

So 2 things. First, we feel great about the financial commitment we've made to our front line associates. And we're also very confident in our long-term financial plan. So since 2018, as we mentioned, we've invested over $3 billion in incremental wages and share-based compensation for front line associates, including $170 million wage investment we made last year.

所以兩件事。首先，我們對我們對一線員工做出的財務承諾感到滿意。而且我們對我們的長期財務計劃也非常有信心。因此，正如我們提到的，自 2018 年以來，我們已經為一線員工的增量工資和基於股份的薪酬投資超過 30 億美元，其中包括我們去年進行的 1.7 億美元的工資投資。

And over the past 4 years, we've increased our wage by more than 20%. And Brandon mentioned that we're going to be investing $350 million this year in frontline wages. And over the next 3 years, we're going to invest nearly $1 billion. So when you contemplate all this together, it's factored in our 2023 guidance and our long-term financial guidance.

在過去的 4 年裡，我們的工資增加了 20% 以上。布蘭登提到我們今年將投資 3.5 億美元用於前線工資。在接下來的 3 年裡，我們將投資近 10 億美元。因此，當您將所有這些放在一起考慮時，我們的 2023 年指南和長期財務指南都會考慮到這一點。

And as an investor community, sometimes we get challenged by our rural footprint of stores as a competitive disadvantage. When you discuss wage, it's actually an advantage because most of the small and rural markets where we operate, we're the highest paying retailer. And where we're not, the local operators have a very, very specific process to follow to get wage adjusted.

作為一個投資者社區，有時我們會受到我們在農村足跡作為競爭劣勢的挑戰。當你討論工資時，這實際上是一個優勢，因為我們經營的大多數小型和農村市場都是薪酬最高的零售商。在我們沒有的地方，當地運營商有一個非常非常具體的流程來調整工資。

So our approach to wage is our strategy, and we feel really good about it, and our associates have responded well. And what I'll do before I hand it to Brandon, I'm just going to let Joe McFarland talk a little bit about staffing levels and spring hiring, which, as you know, is a really big deal for us this time of the year.

所以我們的工資方法就是我們的戰略，我們對此感覺非常好，我們的同事也反應良好。在我把它交給布蘭登之前我要做的是，我只想讓喬·麥克法蘭談談人員配備水平和春季招聘，正如你所知，這對我們這次來說真的很重要年。

Yes. Karen, thanks for the question. And as it relates to our frontline associates, I'm very pleased with our staffing right now. This is the best staffing we've had in 3 years. And our spring hiring as the markets come into season is ahead of expectations. So very pleased with the team's ability to staff and pivot wherever the challenges are.

是的。凱倫，謝謝你的提問。就我們的一線員工而言，我對我們現在的人員配置感到非常滿意。這是我們 3 年來最好的人員配備。隨著市場進入旺季，我們的春季招聘超出了預期。對團隊在挑戰出現的任何地方配備人員和進行調整的能力感到非常滿意。

And so Karen, in summation on that, we have a strategy, we feel great about it. We feel like it's working for us, and we believe that our investment cycle, our commitment to our associates is something that is leading us to being truly an employer of choice in retail. And I'll hand it over to Brandon to answer the other part of your question.

所以凱倫，總而言之，我們有一個戰略，我們對此感覺很好。我們覺得它對我們有用，我們相信我們的投資週期，我們對員工的承諾正在引領我們成為零售業真正的首選雇主。我會把它交給布蘭登來回答你問題的另一部分。

Yes. Karen, your first question on operating margin. We look at what we shared in December, a midpoint of the guide down 1% and 13.7% in that moderate scenario. Our guidance is right in line, purely consistent with that with the range that we provided just bookending those midpoints. So very consistent there.

是的。凱倫，你關於營業利潤率的第一個問題。我們看看我們在 12 月份分享的內容，在這種溫和的情況下，指南的中點分別下降了 1% 和 13.7%。我們的指導是正確的，完全符合我們提供的範圍，只是預訂這些中點。那裡非常一致。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Michael Lasser。

So first, at the analyst meeting in December, you pointed to the most likely scenario being the robust market scenario or the moderate market scenario. The guidance now at the midpoint is squarely on the moderate market scenario, and at the low end could be closer to the weak market scenario.

首先，在 12 月的分析師會議上，您指出最有可能出現的情況是市場強勁或市場溫和。目前處於中點的指導完全基於溫和的市場情景，低端可能更接近疲軟的市場情景。

So what's changed in the last 90 days or so to moderate your expectations for 2023? And then I have a follow-up.

那麼在過去 90 天左右的時間裡發生了什麼變化來降低您對 2023 年的預期？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So Michael, this is Marvin. At a high level, it's lumber deflation. That pretty much sums it up. As Brandon mentioned, we're going to have 300 basis points of headwind in Q1 and 100 basis points of headwind in Q2.

是的。邁克爾，這是馬文。在較高的層面上，這是木材通貨緊縮。這幾乎總結了它。正如 Brandon 提到的，我們將在第一季度遇到 300 個基點的逆風，在第二季度遇到 100 個基點的逆風。

Going into 2023, we looked at the first half of the year as our easiest compares. That remains. But when you throw in that lumber deflation, that pretty much sums up what's different between what we discussed in December and what our guidance is.

進入 2023 年，我們將上半年視為最簡單的比較。那仍然是。但是當你加上木材通貨緊縮時，這幾乎總結了我們在 12 月討論的內容與我們的指導意見之間的不同之處。

Yes. And Michael, I'll just add that the weak scenario that we called out still very much sort of off the table for us. I think we called out at that point, it would require significant economic shock, and we don't see that playing out.

是的。邁克爾，我只想補充一點，我們提出的弱情景對我們來說仍然非常遙遠。我想我們當時就呼籲，這需要對經濟進行重大衝擊，但我們認為這不會奏效。

So we're still very squarely in line with that moderate view. And just as a reminder, the downside, even in that weak scenario was a 13.3% operating margin, so still 30 basis points of expansion even in that scenario.

因此，我們仍然非常同意這種溫和的觀點。提醒一下，即使在那種疲軟的情況下，不利的一面是 13.3% 的營業利潤率，因此即使在那種情況下，仍有 30 個基點的擴張。

Understood. My follow-up is on the gross margin outlook for this year. What's a realistic expectation, especially as the consumer environment gets a little tougher, the consumer may shop or want to shop a bit more on promotion. And how are you thinking about the private label credit card contribution to the overall P&L this year?

明白了。我的後續行動是今年的毛利率展望。什麼是現實的期望，尤其是隨著消費環境變得更加嚴峻，消費者可能會購買或希望在促銷時購買更多商品。您如何看待自有品牌信用卡對今年整體損益的貢獻？

Yes, Michael, I'll talk about the guide as it relates to margins. So very focused next year on delivering operating margin expansion, and that's on flat to slightly negative comps.

是的，邁克爾，我將討論與邊距相關的指南。所以明年非常專注於實現營業利潤率的增長，這是持平到略微負的補償。

As you mentioned, the gross margin we are expecting that to be roughly flat in '23. And there's a few different puts and takes that we're managing on the headwind side, continued rollout and expansion of our supply chain, specifically market delivery. We're going to continue to see mix pressure from our Pro strategic initiative investments.

正如您提到的，我們預計 23 年的毛利率將大致持平。我們在逆風方面進行了一些不同的投入和投入，繼續推出和擴展我們的供應鏈，特別是市場交付。我們將繼續看到來自我們的 Pro 戰略計劃投資的混合壓力。

The flip side a number of productivity efforts. You mentioned private brand penetration, also lower commodity and transportation costs and then continued benefit from our pricing initiatives. So the large part of the leverage is going to come from SG&A and continued PPI productivity efforts that you've heard called out from the team.

另一方面是一些提高生產力的努力。你提到了自有品牌滲透，還降低了商品和運輸成本，然後繼續受益於我們的定價舉措。因此，很大一部分槓桿將來自 SG&A 和你從團隊中聽到的持續的 PPI 生產力努力。

So that's sort of the formula as we look at margins and flow through next year. And Bill, I don't know if there's anything else you want to add on private brands and some of the momentum that we're seeing there?

所以這就是我們查看利潤率和明年流量的公式。比爾，我不知道你是否想對自有品牌和我們在那裡看到的一些勢頭補充什麼？

Well, Brandon, and for Michael, what we talked about in December, private brands certainly gives us an opportunity in categories where a national brand isn't relevant. Private brands carry a better margin. They offer the consumer some additional choices.

好吧，布蘭登和邁克爾，我們在 12 月談到的內容，自有品牌無疑為我們提供了一個與民族品牌無關的類別的機會。自有品牌的利潤率更高。它們為消費者提供了一些額外的選擇。

As it relates to promotional activity, we want to continue to offer the customers value, but we're not adding new promotions for 2023.

由於涉及促銷活動，我們希望繼續為客戶提供價值，但我們不會在 2023 年增加新的促銷活動。

That's helpful. And just to clarify, referring to the private label credit card, that was a drag on the gross margin in the fourth quarter.

這很有幫助。澄清一下，關於自有品牌信用卡，這拖累了第四季度的毛利率。

Yes. Got it, Michael. So -- yes, drag in Q4 mainly given the interest rate environment that we're seeing. But as we turn into 2023, again, a number of puts and takes, but we feel like the bulk of that for the most part has been absorbed, and we have that factored into '23.

是的。明白了，邁克爾。所以——是的，第四季度的拖累主要是考慮到我們所看到的利率環境。但是當我們再次進入 2023 年時，有一些投入和投入，但我們覺得其中大部分已經被吸收，我們已經將其計入 23 年。

Next question comes from the line of Greg Melich with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Greg Melich。

I'll start with a follow-up on that last question before I get to mine. On other gross margin puts and takes, shrink was also I think a headwind in the fourth quarter. Could you just quantify that and give us your expectations for that into '23?

在開始我的問題之前，我將從最後一個問題的後續行動開始。在其他毛利率方面，收縮也是我認為第四季度的不利因素。你能量化一下並告訴我們你對 23 年的期望嗎？

Yes. So sure, Greg. On shrink, in particular, it was a bit of a pressure point, a bit worse than expected. It's been approximately 30 basis point pressure. We saw that Q3 and Q4, largely driven by what we're seeing more broadly in retail with organized crime.

是的。當然，格雷格。尤其是shrink上，有點壓力點，比想像中差了點。這是大約 30 個基點的壓力。我們看到了第三季度和第四季度，這在很大程度上是由我們在零售業中更廣泛地看到有組織犯罪的情況所推動的。

But again, as we turn and look at '23, that pressure largely absorbed in 2022. We feel like we got great efforts within the team and the organization in terms of what we're doing to protect against shrink, and I'll maybe let Joe call that out.

但是，當我們再次回顧 23 年時，這種壓力在 2022 年大部分被吸收了。我們覺得我們在團隊和組織內部做出了巨大的努力，以防止收縮，我可能會讓喬說出來。

So thanks for the question. And listen, we're really pleased with the asset protection team. The entire industry has pressure from ORC. Our asset protection team has rolled out some new, innovative things for safety, for shrink, and so we see the outlook good.

所以謝謝你的問題。聽著，我們對資產保護團隊非常滿意。整個行業都有來自ORC的壓力。我們的資產保護團隊推出了一些新的、創新的安全措施，收縮，所以我們認為前景很好。

Great. And then I guess, my key question was on the traffic and inflation and how that sort of comes in through the year. So if you think about the cadence through the year, it sounds like first quarter is below the range, second quarter is above the range. Should we assume the second half is better than the first half or worse than the first half or in line?

偉大的。然後我想，我的關鍵問題是交通和通貨膨脹，以及這種情況如何貫穿這一年。因此，如果你考慮全年的節奏，聽起來第一季度低於範圍，第二季度高於範圍。我們應該假設下半場好於上半場還是比上半場差或一致？

Yes. Second half, Greg, very much in line.

是的。下半場，格雷格，非常符合要求。

Got it. And the difference would be better traffic in the second half, maybe still negative but less negative? And less...

知道了。不同之處在於下半年的流量會更好，也許仍然是負面的，但負面影響較小？少...

Correct. Correct.

正確的。正確的。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Benedict 與 Baird 的對話。

Just wanted to -- on the first quarter comp view that you laid out there. We understand the commodity impacts there. But just curious, any early season read? I know it is early, but some of your markets in the South, just curious how Spring seasonal demand is starting out here? That's my first question.

只是想 - 在你在那里布置的第一季度比較視圖上。我們了解那裡的商品影響。但只是好奇，任何早期的季節都讀過嗎？我知道現在還早，但是你們在南方的一些市場，只是好奇這裡的春季季節性需求是如何開始的？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. Peter, as we look at February sales consistent with our guidance, we called out the Q1 being below the full year guidance range. And again, that's primarily due to the lumber pricing pressure that we're seeing. We are encouraged to see early signs of strength in discretionary seasonal categories, in particular, South and deep South as our customers begin to prepare for spring, and I'll let Bill talk to that in a little bit more detail.

是的。彼得，當我們看到 2 月份的銷售額與我們的指導一致時，我們稱第一季度低於全年指導範圍。同樣，這主要是由於我們看到的木材定價壓力。當我們的客戶開始為春季做準備時，我們很高興看到自由季節性類別的早期跡象，特別是南部和南部深處，我會讓比爾更詳細地談談這一點。

Yes. Thanks, Brandon. And Peter, we started setting our stores in the South, Deep South, early January. And I think what's nice to see is spring start to come in the way it's supposed to come. And you start to see sales of product in fertilizer, chemicals, landscape products start to occur the way they're supposed to occur. And so we're encouraged by that. February can always be a wildcard month. But certainly, in these months -- in these Deep south and South markets seeing it kind of progress the way it's supposed to.

是的。謝謝，布蘭登。彼得，我們從 1 月初開始在南方深處開設我們的商店。而且我認為很高興看到春天開始以它應該到來的方式到來。你開始看到肥料、化學品、景觀產品的銷售開始以它們應該發生的方式發生。因此，我們對此感到鼓舞。二月總是一個通配符月份。但可以肯定的是，在這幾個月裡——在這些深南和南方市場中，我們看到了它按預期方式取得的進展。

Got it. And then just back to the -- maybe the promotional plan that you have laid out for the year. I mean, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that the consumer is responding to value.

知道了。然後回到——也許是你為這一年制定的促銷計劃。我的意思是，您在準備好的發言中提到消費者正在響應價值。

I'm just curious -- I mean, we've been through a period where there's been very limited promotion. So how do we think about the plan maybe for the first half of the year here in terms of your promotions? Things that you tend to do to drive traffic, how they compare to maybe what you've done in the last couple of years? That's my second question.

我只是好奇——我的意思是，我們經歷了一段晉升非常有限的時期。那麼，就你們的晉升而言，我們如何看待上半年的計劃？您為增加流量而傾向於做的事情，與您過去幾年所做的事情相比如何？這是我的第二個問題。

So Peter, I'll take the first part of that. At the highest level, you're not going to see any increased promotional activities by us. We're very fortunate to be in a very rational industry relative to promotions. And to be quite candid, a lot of the irrational activities came from old Lowe's.

Peter，我先講第一部分。在最高級別，您不會看到我們增加任何促銷活動。我們很幸運能夠進入一個相對於促銷活動非常理性的行業。坦率地說，很多不合理的活動都來自老勞氏。

And those practices and behaviors are along behind. Those are one of the first things that Bill Boltz and I discussed when we arrived 4.5 years ago was getting off the high-low promotional drug that we felt was not consistent with how you should run business in this industry. And it's taken us a while to get there, but we're very fortunate that we are there.

這些做法和行為都在後面。這些是 Bill Boltz 和我在 4.5 年前到達時討論的第一件事之一是擺脫我們認為不符合您應該如何在這個行業開展業務的高低促銷藥物。我們花了一段時間才到達那裡，但我們很幸運能到達那裡。

So we anticipate and see no increased promotional activities. Obviously, as you get out of these pandemic-driven demand cycles, customers are looking for value, but we believe we can offer value without getting to a high promotional environment. Bill, I don't know if there's anything you want to add?

因此，我們預計促銷活動不會增加。顯然，當您擺脫這些大流行驅動的需求週期時，客戶正在尋找價值，但我們相信我們可以在不進入高促銷環境的情況下提供價值。 Bill，我不知道你有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think the one area that the team may see different activity on is in appliances, and you guys have to remember that roughly 100,000 appliances break every day. And so there's always going to be an offer in the marketplace for appliances driven by the manufacturers, supported by the retailers.

不，我認為團隊可能會看到不同活動的一個領域是電器，你們必須記住，每天大約有 100,000 台電器壞掉。因此，在零售商的支持下，市場上總是會提供由製造商驅動的電器產品。

So that's one area supply has improved. Those offers are out there for appliance products. But no additional promotions.

所以這是一個地區的供應有所改善。這些優惠適用於家電產品。但沒有額外的促銷活動。

We have time for 1 final question, which will come from the line of Steve Forbes with Guggenheim.

我們有時間提出最後一個問題，該問題將來自古根海姆的史蒂夫福布斯。

Marvin, Brandon, I just wanted to follow up with a quick modeling question given the exit of Canada. And so I'm not sure if you could help us think about the mix impact on gross margin because I would think the Canadian business and the exit of it has a positive impact on gross.

Marvin、Brandon，鑑於加拿大退出，我只想跟進一個快速建模問題。所以我不確定你是否可以幫助我們考慮對毛利率的混合影響，因為我認為加拿大業務及其退出對毛利率有積極影響。

And can you help us quantify that relative to 60 basis point net impact and whether this is partially sort of supportive of the 2023 outlook for a flattish gross margin '23?

您能否幫助我們量化相對於 60 個基點的淨影響，以及這是否部分支持 2023 年毛利率持平的前景 '23？

Yes, Steve, 60 basis points was a full year impact on operating margin. And when you think about the split there between gross margin and SG&A, it's roughly half and half.

是的，史蒂夫，60 個基點是全年對營業利潤率的影響。當你考慮毛利率和 SG&A 之間的分裂時，它大約是一半和一半。

And then lastly, the ongoing compensation related investments that you noted during the prepared remarks, which is great to hear. I was curious, if we just take a step back and think about the dollar level of OpEx productivity initiatives you've highlighted at the Analyst Days in 2020 and 2022. Any contextualization about how much still remains in front of us in dollar terms?

最後，您在準備好的發言中提到的與薪酬相關的持續投資，很高興聽到這一消息。我很好奇，如果我們退後一步，想想你在 2020 年和 2022 年的分析師日強調的 OpEx 生產力計劃的美元水平。以美元計算，我們面前還有多少是有背景的？

And Marvin, I'm not sure, if you maybe talk about some specific PPI initiatives that you're most excited about this year?

Marvin，我不確定，你是否可以談談今年你最感興趣的一些具體 PPI 計劃？

Yes. Well, it's a really good question, Steve. A couple of things. Number one, as you can imagine, we have been working aggressively to update our IT infrastructure.

是的。嗯，這是一個非常好的問題，史蒂夫。幾件事。第一，正如您想像的那樣，我們一直在積極努力更新我們的 IT 基礎架構。

We still have a 30-year-old basically mainline system that we're getting ready to retire, and it's literally taken us 4.5 years to get to this point. The moment that system is officially retired, it gives us the ability to create so many technology advancements that will do 2 things, will simplify the associate's job and limit friction points for customers, which will reduce payroll and improve customer service. And that's what Joe cited in some of his prepared comments.

我們仍然有一個 30 年的基本主線系統，我們正準備退休，我們實際上花了 4.5 年才達到這一點。該系統正式退役的那一刻，它使我們能夠創造如此多的技術進步，這將做兩件事，將簡化員工的工作並限制客戶的摩擦點，這將減少工資並改善客戶服務。這就是 Joe 在他準備好的評論中引用的內容。

And so holistically, a lot of our PPI initiatives on the store and merchandising side, and candidly, the supply chain side are tied and correlates to the retirement of this 30-year-old operating system that we are excited is going to be going away over the next few months.

因此，從整體上看，我們在商店和銷售方面的許多 PPI 計劃，坦率地說，供應鏈方面都與這個有 30 年曆史的操作系統的退休相關聯，我們很高興它即將消失在接下來的幾個月裡。

And as we look at that, you'll start to see more omnichannel type of systems available in the store. At point of sale, you'll start to see pricing initiatives and pricing systems advanced on the merchandising side.

當我們看到這一點時，您將開始在商店中看到更多全渠道類型的系統。在銷售點，您將開始看到商品銷售方面的定價舉措和定價系統得到改進。

You'll start to see us have the ability to do more relative to integrating gig network deliveries online in a more seamless way in addition to all the supply chain and some of the advanced sourcing logic we'll be able to do that, will give us the ability to ship merchandise, aggregate merchandise, from different points of stores, distribution centers without having to go out and build these monolithic DCs that some retailers have had to do.

你會開始看到我們有能力做更多的事情，以更無縫的方式在線集成零工網絡交付，除了所有供應鍊和一些我們將能夠做到的高級採購邏輯，將給我們有能力從商店、配送中心的不同點運送商品、聚合商品，而無需外出並構建一些零售商必須做的這些整體 DC。

So all of those things are tied together. But again, it's almost foundationally driven to a lot of the IT work that's been done the last 4-plus years.

所以所有這些東西都是聯繫在一起的。但同樣，它幾乎從根本上推動了過去 4 年多來完成的許多 IT 工作。

Thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you on our first quarter earnings call in May.

感謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在 5 月份的第一季度財報電話會議上與您交談。

Thank you. This concludes the Lowe's fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。勞氏 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。