勞氏公司 (LOW) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Lowe's 報告稱,由於 DIY 可自由支配支出減少,第三季可比銷售額下降。然而,該公司在 Pro 細分市場看到了積極的銷售業績。

Lowe's 正在實施旨在提高 DIY 性能的舉措,並致力於為注重價格的消費者強調日常價值和便利性。該公司公佈的稀釋後每股收益為 3.06 美元,並對家居裝修行業的長期前景保持樂觀。

Lowe's 正在投資農村商店、探索新產品種類並增強客戶體驗。該公司提供了 2023 年的財務展望,並討論了 2024 年的計劃。他們強調,他們的重點是提高利潤率和滿足客戶需求。

Lowe's 也專注於收購相關品牌、改善線上基礎設施以及提供有競爭力的價格和促銷活動。公司討論了他們的促銷策略和資本分配計劃。

他們預計第四季將延續第三季的趨勢,並對實現他們的預期表示信心。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Lowe's Companies Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Rob, and I'll be your operator for today's call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    各位早安,歡迎參加 Lowe's Companies 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我是 Rob,將擔任今天會議的接線員。提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。

  • I will now turn the call over to Kate Pearlman, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer.

    現在我將把電話交給投資人關係副總裁兼財務主管 Kate Pearlman。

  • Kate Pearlman - VP of IR

    Kate Pearlman - VP of IR

  • Thank you, and good morning. Here with me today are Marvin Ellison, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Bill Boltz, our Executive Vice President, Merchandising; Joe McFarland, our Executive Vice President, Stores; and Brandon Sink, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝,各位早安。今天與我一同出席的有:董事長兼執行長 Marvin Ellison;執行副總裁(商品採購)Bill Boltz;執行副總裁(門市營運)Joe McFarland;以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Brandon Sink。

  • I would like to remind you that our notice regarding forward-looking statements is included in our press release this morning, which can be found on Lowe's Investor Relations. During this call, we will be making comments that are forward-looking, including our expectations for fiscal 2023. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied as a result of various risks, uncertainties and important factors, including those discussed in the risk factors, MD&A and other sections of our annual report on Form 10-K and our other SEC filings. Additionally, we'll be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these items to U.S. GAAP can be found in the quarterly earnings section of our Investor Relations website.

    我想提醒各位,我們今早新聞稿中已包含關於前瞻性陳述的聲明,可於 Lowe's 投資人關係網站查閱。在本次電話會議中,我們將發表若干前瞻性評論,包括對 2023 會計年度的預期。由於各種風險、不確定性及重要因素(包括我們在 Form 10-K 年報的風險因素、管理階層討論與分析(MD&A)及其他章節,以及其他向 SEC 提交之文件中所討論者),實際結果可能與明示或暗示內容存在重大差異。此外,我們也將討論若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些項目與美國 GAAP 之調節表可於投資人關係網站的季度財報專區查閱。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to Marvin.

    現在我把電話交給 Marvin。

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Thank you, Kate, and good morning, everyone. For the third quarter comparable sales declined 7.4%. Our results were driven by a greater-than-expected pullback in DIY discretionary spending, especially in bigger ticket categories. While we've seen a more cautious consumer for some time now, this quarter, we saw some of these consumers increasingly prioritizing experiences over goods spending on travel and entertainment.

    謝謝你,Kate,各位早安。第三季同店銷售下滑 7.4%。我們的結果主要受到 DIY(自己動手)可選性支出縮手幅度高於預期所影響,尤其是在高單價品類。雖然我們一段時間以來已看到消費者趨於保守,但本季我們看到部分消費者更明顯地將支出優先順序從商品轉向體驗,例如旅遊與娛樂。

  • As a reminder, at Lowe's, 75% of our revenue is driven by DIY customers and 25% by Pros, while the broader market mix is roughly 50% DIY and 50% Pro. As a result, whenever the DIY customer becomes cautious, it disproportionately affects us. And while we face a softer DIY demand in the third quarter, I'm pleased that at the same time, we once again delivered positive sales comp in Pro.

    提醒各位,在 Lowe's,我們 75% 的營收來自 DIY 客戶、25% 來自專業客戶(Pro);而整體市場的組合大約是 50% DIY、50% Pro。因此,當 DIY 客戶轉趨保守時,對我們的影響會相對更大。儘管第三季面臨較疲弱的 DIY 需求,我很高興同時我們在 Pro 端再度繳出同店銷售正成長。

  • Now I'd like to take a moment to dig a bit deeper into our DIY performance for the third quarter. In categories like appliances, decor, flooring and kitchen and bath, where we have strong DIY penetration, we saw increased pressure on sales of bigger ticket purchases like appliances where consumers are postponing purchases if they can. For example, customers may have previously bought an entire kitchen suite may now just buy a refrigerator. Keep in mind that the industry-wide pullback in appliance sales has a larger impact on Lowe's since we are the market leader in appliances in the U.S. with 14% of our sales coming from this category. Later in the call, Bill will discuss some of the initiatives we're implementing in Q4 to improve DIY performance with a more targeted effort to reach value-conscious customers including our most competitive offers on single unit appliance purchases ahead of the holiday season and the launch of our Lowe's lowest price guarantee, so our customers can shop with confidence knowing that they'll always find the best price at Lowe's.

    接下來我想花點時間更深入說明第三季 DIY 的表現。在家電、裝飾、地板,以及廚房與衛浴等 DIY 滲透率較高的品類中,我們看到高單價購買的銷售壓力加大,例如家電;消費者若能延後就會延後購買。舉例來說,過去客戶可能會購買整套廚房家電組合,現在可能只買一台冰箱。請記住,整個產業家電銷售的縮手對 Lowe's 的影響更大,因為我們是美國家電市場的領導者,且該品類占我們銷售的 14%。稍後在電話會議中,Bill 將說明我們在第四季為改善 DIY 表現所推動的一些措施,包括更聚焦觸及重視價值的客戶:在假期旺季前推出單件家電購買的最具競爭力優惠,以及推出 Lowe's 最低價保證,讓顧客能安心購物,知道在 Lowe's 永遠能找到最優惠的價格。

  • Despite the pullback in DIY, our Pros are still working and many of their projects are a result of increased wear and tear on aging homes, which lead to unavoidable repairs. This continues to create project backlogs for small to medium sized Pro, who is our core customer. In our most recent survey, nearly 70% of Pros reported healthy project backlogs, but given the uncertain macro environment, they're feeling a little less confident. Although Pros may be a bit cautious in this environment, our ability to deliver a positive pro sales comp in the third quarter is a reflection that our strategy is working.

    儘管 DIY 出現縮手,我們的 Pro 客戶仍在施工,且其許多專案源自老舊房屋日益增加的磨損,進而帶來無可避免的維修需求。這持續為中小型 Pro(我們的核心客群)帶來專案積壓。在我們最近一次調查中,近 70% 的 Pro 表示仍有健康的專案積壓量,但在不確定的總體環境下,他們的信心略有下降。雖然 Pro 在此環境中可能稍顯謹慎,但我們第三季仍能達成 Pro 同店銷售正成長,反映我們的策略正在奏效。

  • We're making progress with the investments we've made over the last several years to improve our service offering, including increasing loyalty through our MVP Pro rewards, developing a world-class CRM platform, improving job site delivery, enhancing service levels in our stores, creating a more seamless online experience and a number of merchandising initiatives that Bill will discuss later in the call. Overall, we built a competitive pro sales and service model, which is creating a flywheel effect that will enable us to grow Pro sales at 2x the pace of the market.

    我們在過去數年所做的投資正持續取得進展,以提升我們的服務供給,包括透過 MVP Pro 獎勵計畫提高忠誠度、打造世界級 CRM 平台、改善工地配送、提升門市服務水準、創造更無縫的線上體驗,以及 Bill 稍後將在電話會議中提到的多項商品採購措施。整體而言,我們建立了具競爭力的 Pro 銷售與服務模式,形成飛輪效應,將使我們的 Pro 銷售成長速度達到市場的 2 倍。

  • Let's now turn to online sales, which declined 4% in the quarter as the same pressures in DIY bigger ticket categories impacted digital sales.

    接著談線上銷售,本季下滑 4%,原因是 DIY 高單價品類面臨的相同壓力也影響了數位銷售。

  • Now let's talk about what we're doing to manage this unique environment. In store operations, we've made foundational improvements to associate productivity that enable us to effectively align labor to demand while continuing to serve our customers. During the quarter, we leveraged these new capabilities to reduce operating expenses while enhancing the customer experience for both Pro and DIY customers at the same time. Joe will provide more detail on these initiatives and our improved customer service scores later in the call. I'm pleased that our disciplined focus on expense management across the organization contributed to a 46 basis point increase in operating margin rate compared to adjusted operating margin in the prior year despite the sales decline, which led to diluted earnings per share of $3.06.

    現在談談我們如何因應這個特殊環境。在門市營運方面,我們已在同仁生產力上完成基礎性改善,使我們能在持續服務顧客的同時,有效地將人力配置與需求對齊。本季我們運用這些新能力,在提升 Pro 與 DIY 顧客體驗的同時降低營運費用。Joe 稍後將在電話會議中提供更多細節,說明這些措施以及我們改善後的顧客服務評分。我很高興我們在全公司對費用管理的紀律性聚焦,儘管銷售下滑,仍使營業利益率較去年調整後營業利益率提升 46 個基點,並帶動稀釋後每股盈餘達 3.06 美元。

  • As we explore ways to drive improved sales with our DIY customers, I'd like to provide you with an update on two initiatives, our new Lowe's outlet stores and our rural strategy. Let me start with our Lowe's Outlet stores. We opened our 15th Lowe's outlet location in Q3. With these smaller format stores, we can leverage lower cost real estate in trade areas closest to our core customer without cannibalizing a nearby Lowe's store. In an environment where DIY consumers are seeking value, we're pleased with the customer response and the overall performance of our outlet locations. These stores complement our market delivery network, allowing us to offer savings between 25% to 70% off on big and bulky scratch and dent items like appliances, patio furniture, grills, all while maximizing profitability and offering our customers enhanced value. We look forward to discussing the potential growth opportunities of this strategy on an upcoming call.

    在我們尋求提升 DIY 客戶銷售的方式之際,我想向各位更新兩項計畫:全新的 Lowe's Outlet 門市,以及我們的鄉村策略。先從 Lowe's Outlet 門市談起。我們在第三季開出第 15 家 Lowe's outlet 據點。透過這些較小型態的門市,我們能在更接近核心客群的商圈運用成本較低的不動產,同時不會侵蝕附近 Lowe's 門市的業績。在 DIY 消費者追求價值的環境下,我們對顧客回饋與 outlet 據點的整體表現感到滿意。這些門市也與我們的市場配送網路相輔相成,使我們能針對家電、庭院家具、烤爐等大型且笨重的刮傷/凹損商品提供 25% 至 70% 的折扣,同時最大化獲利並為顧客提供更高的價值。我們期待在未來的電話會議中,進一步討論此策略的潛在成長機會。

  • Turning to our rule strategy. This one-stop shop concept is designed to give customers located in rural areas across the country, everything they need for their home and farm, including a wide offering of farm, ranch and outdoor products. During the summer, we launched this rural assortment to over 300 stores where we're selling products like livestock feed, pet food, utility vehicles and apparel from brands like Carhartt and Wrangler. These programs include a Petco store within a store, which enhances the total home solution we offer by bringing together home improvement and pet care services, products and expertise under one roof.

    接著談我們的鄉村策略。這個一站式購物概念旨在為全國各地鄉村地區的顧客提供其居家與農場所需的一切,包括豐富的農場、牧場與戶外產品。於夏季期間,我們已將此鄉村商品組合導入超過 300 家門市,販售如牲畜飼料、寵物食品、多功能工作車,以及 Carhartt、Wrangler 等品牌的服飾。這些計畫也包含「店中店」形式的 Petco,透過在同一屋簷下整合居家修繕與寵物照護的服務、商品與專業,強化我們所提供的整體居家解決方案。

  • We're pleased to see this new initiative already gaining traction with strong performance in pet, apparel and automotive. In fact, these rural customers are our best-performing DIY segment and these stores are performing significantly above the company average. Given this initial success, we're now exploring expanding this rural assortment beyond the original 300 designated rule stores. In addition, we're planning to add incremental merchandising initiatives within these original 300 stores because the customer is responding favorably to these new assortments and product lines.

    我們很高興看到這項新計畫已開始展現動能,在寵物、服飾與汽車相關品類表現強勁。事實上,這些鄉村顧客是我們表現最佳的 DIY 客群,而這些門市的表現也顯著高於公司平均水準。鑑於初步成功,我們正評估將此鄉村商品組合擴展至原先 300 家指定鄉村門市以外的更多門市。此外,我們也計畫在這 300 家原始門市中增加額外的商品採購措施,因為顧客對這些新商品組合與產品線反應良好。

  • Looking ahead, we remain focused on our merchandising and marketing efforts that highlight the everyday value at Lowe's for our price-sensitive customers. And we will continue to invest in our strategic growth initiatives within our Total Home strategy as we strive to become a world-class omnichannel retailer.

    展望未來,我們仍將聚焦於商品採購與行銷工作,向價格敏感型顧客強調 Lowe's 的日常價值。同時,我們也將持續在「全方位居家(Total Home)」策略下投資於策略性成長計畫,致力成為世界級的全通路零售商。

  • And as I wrap up, let me say that we remain bullish on the medium to long-term outlook for the home improvement industry, supported by favorable housing and demographic trends. We expect home prices to be supported by a persistent supply/demand imbalance of housing, while at the same time, 250,000 millennial household formations are expected per year through 2025, and their parents and grandparents, the baby boomers increasingly prefer to age in place in their own homes. And we cannot overlook the fact that we now have the oldest housing stock in U.S. history with the medium age of homes now 41 years old, which will need ongoing investments in repair and remodel projects. These factors continue to reinforce our optimism about the mid to long-term outlook for our industry.

    最後總結一下,我想說我們對居家修繕產業的中長期前景仍然樂觀,並受到有利的住宅與人口結構趨勢所支撐。我們預期房價將受到住宅供需長期失衡的支撐;同時,預計至 2025 年,每年將新增 25 萬個千禧世代家庭戶形成。此外,他們的父母與祖父母,也就是嬰兒潮世代,愈來愈偏好在自宅原居安老。我們也不能忽視一個事實:美國目前擁有史上最老的住宅存量,房屋的中位屋齡已達 41 年,將需要持續投入維修與翻新工程。這些因素持續強化我們對本產業中長期展望的信心。

  • In closing, I'd like to thank our frontline associates with our continued hard work and dedication to serving customers and our communities.

    最後,我想感謝我們第一線的同仁,持續辛勤工作並致力於服務顧客與我們的社區。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Bill.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給 Bill。

  • William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

    William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

  • Thanks, Marvin, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,Marvin,各位早安。

  • Despite a pullback in DIY discretionary demand, we are pleased that we delivered positive Pro comps this quarter as our enhanced product and brand offerings continue to resonate with the Pro. Over the past several years, we've added the brands that Pros want, and we have invested in the inventory quantities Pros need, and we continue to tailor our product assortments to local building codes and preferences. These investments continue to pay off even in a more challenging macro environment, where we remain laser-focused on highlighting everyday value and convenience, both in our stores and online to a price-conscious consumer.

    儘管 DIY 非必需性需求有所回落,我們仍很高興本季 Pro 同店銷售(Pro comps)呈現正成長,因為我們強化的產品與品牌組合持續獲得 Pro 客群的青睞。過去幾年,我們引進了 Pro 想要的品牌,也投資了 Pro 所需的庫存量,並持續依據各地建築法規與偏好調整商品組合。即使在更具挑戰的總體環境下,這些投資仍持續帶來回報;我們依然高度聚焦於在門市與線上向重視價格的消費者凸顯日常價值與便利性。

  • Turning to our results in Building Products. We continue to serve our Resilient Pro customer who remains active, especially on repair and maintenance projects. We delivered positive comps in building materials, partly driven by strong performance in Pro-heavy categories like roofing and drywall. We also delivered comps above the company average in rough plumbing, largely driven by positive comps in water heaters demonstrating that Lowe's is the go-to solution for critical repair needs. This quarter, Klein Tools returned home to Lowe's. This trusted brand is the #1 tool brand for electrical and HVAC professionals, and we are thrilled to now offer the largest assortment of Klein Tools in the home improvement retail channel. Our Pro customers' response to our relaunch of Klein tools has exceeded our expectations, and we're excited about our plans to expand this iconic brand to support the unique needs of these trade professionals.

    接著談建材(Building Products)業務表現。我們持續服務具韌性的 Pro 客戶,他們仍保持活躍,特別是在修繕與維護專案上。建材品類同店銷售呈正成長,部分受惠於屋頂材料與石膏板等 Pro 佔比較高品類的強勁表現。我們在粗配管(rough plumbing)的同店銷售也高於公司平均,主要由熱水器的正成長所帶動,顯示 Lowe's 是關鍵修繕需求的首選解決方案。本季,Klein Tools 回歸 Lowe's。這個值得信賴的品牌是電工與 HVAC 專業人士的第一大工具品牌,我們很高興如今能在居家修繕零售通路提供最齊全的 Klein Tools 商品組合。我們的 Pro 客戶對 Klein 工具重新上市的反應超出預期,我們也對擴展這個經典品牌、以支援這些技師的獨特需求之計畫感到振奮。

  • Now let's shift gears to home decor, which was most heavily impacted by lower DIY project-related demand. And as you heard from Marvin, this had a greater impact in categories like appliances, flooring and kitchens and bath. Within appliances, we are seeing lower industry unit volumes as well as the reintroduction of pre-pandemic levels of vendor-funded promotion, which puts pressure on average selling price. And while our results in kitchens and bath were also impacted by softer DIY demand. We are seeing our private brand products gaining traction as the consumer continues to look for value, like with our new allen + roth butcher block countertops. These are made of solid FSC-certified wood and this stylish product is a cost-effective way to refresh your kitchen, bar or studio. This item has been so popular that we are now doubling our sales expectations.

    接下來轉到家居裝飾(home decor),這一塊受到 DIY 專案相關需求下滑的影響最為明顯。正如 Marvin 所提到的,這對家電、地板以及廚房與衛浴等品類的影響更大。在家電方面,我們看到整體產業的銷量(unit volumes)下降,同時供應商補貼促銷回到疫情前水準,對平均售價造成壓力。雖然廚房與衛浴的表現也受到較疲弱的 DIY 需求影響,但隨著消費者持續尋求更高性價比,我們看到自有品牌產品正逐步獲得動能,例如我們新推出的 allen + roth 實木砧板式檯面。該產品採用實心、通過 FSC 認證的木材製成,外型時尚,且能以具成本效益的方式翻新廚房、吧台或工作室。此商品熱銷到我們現在將銷售預期提高一倍。

  • Turning to paint. We delivered comps above company average in the quarter, largely driven by the Pro who paints, who relies on Lowe's as a one-stop shop for their project needs. We continue to look for opportunities to expand our product offering, including a recent launch of an exclusive line of Sherwin-Williams primers from HGTV Home. These new primers designed for the Pro who paints, gives them a versatile multi-surface application that makes it easier to work on both interior and exterior projects.

    再談油漆(paint)。本季油漆同店銷售高於公司平均,主要由「以油漆為業的 Pro」所帶動;他們仰賴 Lowe's 作為滿足專案需求的一站式採購。我們持續尋找擴充商品供給的機會,包括近期推出 HGTV Home 獨家 Sherwin-Williams 底漆系列。這些新底漆是為專業油漆 Pro 所設計,提供多用途的多表面塗佈能力,讓他們更容易同時處理室內與室外工程。

  • Shifting gears to hardlines. In addition to a broad-based DIY pullback, we also saw pressure in categories impacted by storm-related activity. such as generators, gas cans, fuel and chain saws as we cycled Hurricane Ian from last year. We delivered comps above company average in lawn and garden as our customers engaged in smaller fall cleanup projects. And we also drove comps above company average in hardware led by key Pro categories like fasteners, safety equipment and cleaning products.

    接著談硬體類(hardlines)。除了 DIY 全面性回落之外,我們也在受風暴相關活動影響的品類上承受壓力,例如發電機、汽油桶、燃料與鏈鋸,因為我們在去年颶風 Ian 的高基期下進行比較。本季草坪與園藝同店銷售高於公司平均,因顧客投入較小型的秋季清理專案。我們的五金(hardware)同店銷售也高於公司平均,主要由緊固件、安全設備與清潔用品等關鍵 Pro 品類所帶動。

  • Lastly, we continue to build out our brand portfolio like with our new strategic partnership with the Toro Company. Their exciting product lineup further complements what is now the strongest brand offering in outdoor power equipment, one that resonates with both the Pro and DIY customer who relies on Lowe's to offer the best selection. We're looking forward to launching Toro ahead of our upcoming spring season and building on our momentum as the leading retailer of outdoor power equipment.

    最後,我們持續擴充品牌組合,例如與 Toro Company 建立新的策略合作夥伴關係。他們令人振奮的產品陣容,進一步補強我們在戶外動力設備(outdoor power equipment)上已是最強的品牌供給,並同時獲得 Pro 與 DIY 客群的共鳴;這些客群仰賴 Lowe's 提供最佳選擇。我們期待在即將到來的春季旺季前推出 Toro,並在作為戶外動力設備領先零售商的動能上再接再厲。

  • In response to the customers' increased focus on value, I'd like to talk about how we are highlighting some of the ways that customers can save time and money during this holiday season. For starters, we recently kicked off our holiday campaign with a commitment to supporting shoppers in new ways, all season long, which includes a wave of exciting offers and new deals every week, on great gift ideas, including power tools from some of the best brands like DEWALT, Craftsman and Kobalt and pre-lit Christmas trees, trimmed with the innovative energy-saving LED lighting. Our customers can also look forward to same-day delivery on key holiday and home improvement items as well as services like holiday light hanging for the home through A&G.

    因應顧客對價值的關注提升,我想談談我們如何在這個假期旺季凸顯幾種讓顧客節省時間與金錢的方法。首先,我們近期啟動假期行銷活動,承諾整個季節以新的方式支持購物者,其中包括每週推出一波令人期待的優惠與新折扣,涵蓋優質送禮點子,例如來自 DEWALT、Craftsman 與 Kobalt 等頂尖品牌的電動工具,以及搭配創新節能 LED 燈飾的預先裝燈聖誕樹。顧客也可期待針對關鍵節慶與居家修繕商品提供當日送達,以及透過 A&G 提供的居家節慶燈飾安裝等服務。

  • And as Marvin mentioned, we recently launched our new Lowe's Lowest Price Guarantee to remind customers that not only can they expect a great shopping experience, but they will also receive the lowest price on items for their home. In fact, Customers can now find our lowest prices of the year on select major appliances. And in an effort to simplify the offer and make it easier to understand, we're offering $100 off for every $800 a customer spends. For our Pros, we have tailored exclusive bulk saving offers on appliances as well and to drive even greater excitement and traffic on Black Friday, we will feature more than 10 major appliance doorbusters. We are excited to deliver what we think will be the most compelling offers in the market.

    此外,如 Marvin 所提到,我們近期推出全新的 Lowe's 最低價保證(Lowe's Lowest Price Guarantee),提醒顧客不僅能享有優質的購物體驗,也能以最低價格購買居家所需商品。事實上,顧客現在可在指定大型家電上找到我們全年最低價。為了簡化優惠並讓顧客更容易理解,我們提供「每消費 800 美元折抵 100 美元」的方案。針對 Pro 客戶,我們也在家電上量身打造專屬的大宗採購節省方案;為了在黑色星期五帶動更高的熱度與來客數,我們將推出超過 10 款大型家電的限時搶購(doorbusters)。我們很期待提供我們認為市場上最具吸引力的優惠。

  • In addition to these great deals, Lowe's is now offering Carhartt apparel online and in select stores. This iconic workwear brand makes a perfect gift for the Pro this holiday.

    除了這些超值優惠外,Lowe's 現在也在官網與部分門市販售 Carhartt 服飾。這個經典工作服品牌,是本假期送給 Pro 的完美禮物。

  • Before I close, I'd like to highlight just a few of the perpetual productivity improvements or PPI work streams that are underway in merchandising. Our teams continue to make progress in our three main focus areas: product cost management, inventory productivity and pricing and promotional strategies.

    在結束前,我想簡要說明幾項商品採購(merchandising)正在推進的持續性生產力改善(PPI)工作流。我們的團隊在三大重點領域持續取得進展:產品成本管理、庫存生產力,以及定價與促銷策略。

  • We continue to partner with our suppliers to take cost out, especially now that transportation and commodity costs have come down. And we are expanding our private brand portfolio, which delivers great quality and value at a lower price to our customers, while also driving better margin rate productivity. Our teams are working hard to ensure that customers have the best value every day at Lowe's, while also delivering productivity for the organization.

    我們持續與供應商合作降低成本,尤其是在運輸與大宗商品成本已回落的情況下。同時,我們也在擴大自有品牌組合,以更低的價格為顧客提供優良品質與價值,並帶動更佳的毛利率生產力。我們的團隊正全力以赴,確保顧客每天在 Lowe's 都能獲得最佳價值,同時也為組織帶來生產力提升。

  • And as I close, I'd like to extend my appreciation once again to our vendors and our merchants for their hard work, dedication and ongoing partnership.

    最後,我也想再次向我們的供應商與採購團隊致謝,感謝他們的辛勤付出、投入奉獻與持續的合作夥伴關係。

  • Thank you, and I'll now turn the call over to Joe.

    謝謝,接下來我把電話會議交給 Joe。

  • Joseph Michael McFarland - EVP of Stores

    Joseph Michael McFarland - EVP of Stores

  • Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to begin by thanking our frontline associates for their ongoing efforts to deliver excellent customer service. As Marvin mentioned, we were able to reduce operating expenses this quarter, while at the same time delivering a 200 basis point improvement in DIY customer satisfaction scores and a 300 basis point improvement for the Pro. This represents the ongoing benefit of our foundational technology investments, designed to modernize our stores operational process and simplify our associates' jobs while also creating a great shopping environment for our customers.

    謝謝你,Bill,各位早安。我想先感謝第一線同仁持續努力,提供卓越的顧客服務。如 Marvin 所提到,我們本季得以降低營運費用,同時 DIY 顧客滿意度分數提升 200 個基點,Pro 顧客滿意度分數提升 300 個基點。這反映出我們基礎性科技投資所帶來的持續效益;這些投資旨在使門市營運流程現代化、簡化同仁工作,同時為顧客打造良好的購物環境。

  • Let me highlight just a few of these changes. For starters, we created an industry-leading customer-centric scheduling system, which allows us to predict customer demand and align staffing around peak customer traffic for each store and each department. This system creates enhanced operational agility so we can rapidly adjust as demand patterns shift. Second, we've enabled greater productivity by putting mobile smart devices in all of our associates' hands to make them more efficient, reducing manual tasking and enabling faster customer service. For example, by integrating smart devices with our new store inventory management system, or SIMS, our associates can find products 40% faster.

    我來重點說明其中幾項變革。首先,我們建立了業界領先、以顧客為中心的排班系統,使我們能預測顧客需求,並針對每家門市與各部門的尖峰來客量配置人力。此系統提升了營運敏捷性,讓我們能在需求型態變動時快速調整。第二,我們透過為所有同仁配備行動智慧裝置來提升生產力,使其更有效率、減少手動作業並加快顧客服務。例如,將智慧裝置與我們新的門市庫存管理系統(SIMS)整合後,同仁尋找商品的速度提升 40%。

  • And through Project Simple, we've eliminated duplicative tasks and reduced nonproductive hours, so we can re-purpose associate time from tasking to selling and service. A third foundational improvement is the expansion of our merchandising services team or MST. This team keeps our shelves stocked, and they recently assumed responsibilities for price changes across the store and watering in the garden center. MST is now leveraging a new app that directs them to serve a specific base based on the rate of sales, making their hard work even more productive and freeing up more time for our Red Best associates to spend with customers.

    此外,透過 Project Simple,我們已消除重複性工作並降低非生產性工時,讓同仁能把時間從執行任務轉移到銷售與服務。第三項基礎性改善是擴編我們的商品陳列服務團隊(MST)。該團隊負責維持貨架補貨,並在近期承接了全店價格變更與園藝中心澆灌等職責。MST 現在運用一款新 App,依據銷售速度引導他們服務特定貨架區(base),使其辛勤工作更具生產力,也釋放更多時間讓我們的 Red Best 同仁與顧客互動。

  • Another important aspect of delivering excellent customer experience is convenience. That's why we're making a number of enhancements to create a more convenient shopping experience ahead of the holiday season.

    提供卓越顧客體驗的另一個重要面向是便利性。這就是為什麼我們在假期季節來臨前,正進行多項強化措施,以打造更便利的購物體驗。

  • For example, we're extending our same-day delivery to in-store purchases through our gig network to both Pro and DIY customers. And in certain locations, we'll even be delivering live Christmas trees to our customers' doors saving them the hassle of getting it home themselves. This new gig delivery capability, which we first rolled out on lowes.com, enables us to tap into the One Rail network of 12 million drivers to deliver directly to Pro job sites and customer homes in just a matter of hours.

    例如,我們正透過我們的零工(gig)網路,將當日送達服務延伸至門市購買,服務對象涵蓋專業客戶(Pro)與DIY客戶。此外,在特定地點,我們甚至會把活體聖誕樹直接送到顧客家門口,讓他們免去自行搬運回家的麻煩。這項新的零工配送能力最初已在lowes.com上推出,使我們能夠運用One Rail網路的1,200萬名司機,在短短數小時內直接配送至Pro工地與顧客住家。

  • Our store operations team is also focused on unlocking even more productivity through our perpetual productivity improvement initiatives or PPI. This past quarter, we fully retired the old self-checkout systems and have shifted to the proprietary self-checkout systems that we've built for the home improvement shopper. We've seen greater customer adoption of these new systems since they're so much easier to use. In fact, our front-end transformation is well underway, with approximately 450 stores planned by the end of this year. Over a 3-year time line, we're revamping the checkout experience across all of our stores and increasing the selling space at the front where we're adding more merchandise right at checkout with a new design that makes it easy to showcase grab-and-go items. And with this front-end transformation, we're shifting to an easy-to-use assisted self-checkout with cashiers who will be right there to answer questions and help customers when they need it.

    我們的門市營運團隊也專注於透過我們的持續性生產力改善計畫(PPI)釋放更多生產力。上一季,我們已全面汰換舊有的自助結帳系統,並轉換為我們為居家修繕購物者打造的自有自助結帳系統。由於新系統更容易使用,我們看到顧客採用率更高。事實上,我們的前端(front-end)改造正在順利推進,預計在今年年底前完成約450家門市。以3年為期,我們將在所有門市全面翻新結帳體驗,並擴大前端銷售空間;我們會在結帳區以新設計增加更多商品,讓展示隨手拿(grab-and-go)商品更容易。透過這項前端改造,我們也將轉向更易使用的「有人協助」自助結帳模式,收銀員會在旁隨時解答問題並在顧客需要時提供協助。

  • Finally, we're tripling the staging area for buy online, pick up in store orders to support increased online sales and create a much faster, easier customer experience building on our momentum when it comes to driving improved customer service scores for these orders. At the same time, we're excited to launch omni selling in our stores, a critical milestone in our journey to become a world-class omnichannel retailer, enabled by our new store operating system, we can now easily sell our endless aisle on Lowes.com within the aisles of our stores. For example, let's say, a customer is shopping for new faucets and browsing our selection of the most popular finishes in the store.

    最後,我們將把「線上購買、到店取貨」(buy online, pick up in store)訂單的備貨區擴大至原來的三倍,以支援增加的線上銷售,並在我們提升此類訂單顧客服務評分的動能基礎上,打造更快速、更容易的顧客體驗。同時,我們很興奮將在門市推出全通路銷售(omni selling),這是我們邁向世界級全通路零售商旅程中的關鍵里程碑;在新的門市作業系統支援下,我們現在可以在門市走道內輕鬆銷售Lowes.com上的「無限貨架」(endless aisle)商品。舉例來說,假設一位顧客正在選購新水龍頭,並在店內瀏覽我們最受歡迎的表面處理(finish)款式。

  • While talking with an associate, they decide to go with the unique finish from Lowes.com that the associate highlights on their mobile device. The associate then saves the faucet in the customer's digital cart with their phone number and the customer can continue shopping in the store. When the customer is ready to check out, all the cashier needs to do to combine the digital and physical purchases is pull up the digital cart using the customer's phone number. We're still in the early innings here, but we know this is a great opportunity to drive our omni sales and make sure our customers get everything they need to complete their project in one shopping trip.

    在與門市同仁交談時,他們決定選擇由同仁在行動裝置上展示的Lowes.com獨特表面處理款式。接著,同仁會用顧客的電話號碼,將該水龍頭加入顧客的數位購物車,顧客便可繼續在店內購物。當顧客準備結帳時,收銀員只需要透過顧客的電話號碼叫出數位購物車,就能將數位與實體購買合併結帳。我們仍處於早期階段,但我們知道這是推動全通路銷售的絕佳機會,並確保顧客能在一次購物行程中買齊完成專案所需的一切。

  • As I close, I would like to thank all of our store leaders and associates once again for their hard work serving customers and delivering results each and every day. Thank you. And now I'll turn it over to Brandon.

    在結語之前,我想再次感謝所有門市主管與同仁,每天辛勤服務顧客並交出成果。謝謝。接下來我把時間交給Brandon。

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. Starting with our Q3 results. We generated diluted earnings per share of $3.06. Please note, in the prior year, we recorded an asset impairment charge of $2.1 billion associated with our Canadian retail business. Now my comments from this point will reference comparisons to certain non-GAAP measures from last year where applicable. Q3 sales were $20.5 billion. For reference, prior year sales included $1.2 billion generated in our Canadian retail business.

    謝謝你,Joe,各位早安。先從我們第三季(Q3)業績開始。我們的稀釋後每股盈餘為3.06美元。請注意,去年同期我們就加拿大零售業務認列了21億美元的資產減損費用。從現在起,我的評論在適用情況下將參照去年某些非GAAP衡量指標的比較。第三季銷售額為205億美元。供參考,去年銷售額包含加拿大零售業務貢獻的12億美元。

  • Additionally, Q3 results include a $115 million sales headwind due to the shift in our fiscal calendar as we cycle over a 53-week year. Comp sales were down 7.4% as a slowdown in DIY bigger ticket spending offset growth in Pro. Q3 comps were negatively impacted by approximately 50 basis points due to lumber deflation. As a reminder, the calendar shift impacted total sales growth, but had no impact on comparable sales as comps are calculated based on weeks 28 through 40 in fiscal 2022. Comparable average ticket was down 0.5%, driven by lumber deflation, more normalized appliance promotions and a decline in big-ticket DIY transactions.

    此外,第三季業績包含因會計年度日曆調整(跨越53週年度)所帶來的1.15億美元銷售逆風。同店銷售(comp sales)下滑7.4%,因DIY大額支出放緩抵銷了Pro成長。第三季同店表現亦因木材價格通縮而受到約50個基點的負面影響。提醒一下,日曆調整影響總銷售成長,但不影響同店銷售,因同店是以2022會計年度第28週至第40週為基礎計算。可比平均客單價下滑0.5%,主因為木材通縮、家電促銷回歸常態,以及DIY大額交易下降。

  • However, average ticket still increased in the majority of our merchandise categories. Comp transactions declined 6.9%, driven by softer demand in DIY discretionary projects partly offset by positive comp transactions in Pro. Our monthly comps were down 6.3% in August, 8.3% in September and 7.3% in October as DIY traffic slowed as we exited our peak seasonal weeks. Gross margin was 33.7% of sales in the third quarter, up 36 basis points from last year. Gross margin benefited from our ongoing merchandising PPI initiatives as well as favorable product mix and lower transportation costs. This was partially offset by costs associated with the expansion of our supply chain network and consistent with our year-to-date performance, shrink was in line with prior year.

    不過,我們多數商品類別的平均客單價仍然上升。同店交易量下滑6.9%,主要因DIY非必需專案需求轉弱,部分被Pro同店交易量的正成長所抵銷。我們8月同店下滑6.3%、9月下滑8.3%、10月下滑7.3%,因在旺季高峰週結束後,DIY來客數放緩。第三季毛利率為銷售額的33.7%,較去年提升36個基點。毛利率受惠於我們持續推動的商品端PPI計畫,以及有利的產品組合與較低的運輸成本;部分被供應鏈網路擴張相關成本所抵銷。且與年初至今的表現一致,損耗(shrink)與去年持平。

  • SG&A of 18.4% levered 30 basis points versus prior year adjusted SG&A demonstrating our enterprise-wide agility to manage expenses and drive productivity in a lower sales environment. These results would not have been possible without the exceptional efforts of our store leadership teams to rapidly respond to the sales pressure as well as the ongoing benefits that we are harvesting from our technology-led PPI initiatives. Operating margin rate of 13.2% improved by 46 basis points versus prior year adjusted operating margin. The effective tax rate was 24.6%, in line with prior year adjusted effective tax rate.

    SG&A費用率為18.4%,相較去年調整後SG&A槓桿改善30個基點,展現我們在較低銷售環境下管理費用並提升生產力的全企業敏捷性。若沒有門市領導團隊為迅速因應銷售壓力所付出的卓越努力,以及我們從科技驅動的PPI計畫中持續收穫的效益,這些成果不可能達成。營業利益率為13.2%,較去年調整後營業利益率提升46個基點。有效稅率為24.6%,與去年調整後有效稅率一致。

  • Inventory ended the quarter at $17.5 billion, down $2.3 billion compared to Q3 of last year. U.S. inventory dollars and units were both down compared to last year as we align inventory purchases with sales.

    期末庫存為175億美元,較去年第三季減少23億美元。美國庫存金額與件數皆較去年下降,因我們使庫存採購與銷售更一致。

  • Turning now to our capital allocation. During the quarter, we generated $485 million in free cash flow. We repurchased 7.3 million shares for $1.6 billion and paid $642 million in dividends at $1.10 per share, returning $2.2 billion to our shareholders. Capital expenditures totaled $579 million as we continue to invest in our strategic priorities within our Total Home strategy. Adjusted debt to EBITDAR finished the quarter at 2.72x in line with our stated 2.75x leverage target.

    接著談資本配置。本季我們產生4.85億美元自由現金流。我們以16億美元回購730萬股,並以每股1.10美元支付6.42億美元股利,合計回饋股東22億美元。資本支出合計5.79億美元,因我們持續在「全方位居家」(Total Home)策略下投資於策略優先事項。調整後負債對EBITDAR比率於季末為2.72倍,符合我們所宣示的2.75倍槓桿目標。

  • Finally, we delivered return on invested capital of 35%, inclusive of an unfavorable 125 basis point impact related to transaction costs associated with the sale of our Canadian retail business and the gain we reported in Q1.

    最後,我們的投入資本報酬率(ROIC)為35%,其中包含與出售加拿大零售業務相關的交易成本所造成的不利125個基點影響,以及我們在第一季所認列的處分利益。

  • Now turning to our 2023 financial outlook. Given the recent pullback in DIY, bigger ticket discretionary spending and the uncertainty surrounding the macro factors that impact our business, we are updating our full year 2023 financial outlook. With this in mind, we are now forecasting Q4 comp sales to be fairly consistent with Q3 results. Also, the fourth quarter of 2022 included approximately $1.4 billion in sales from the additional 53rd week. We are now expecting 2023 sales of approximately $86 billion with a comparable sales decline of approximately 5%. We also now expect adjusted operating margin of approximately 13.3% as our ongoing PPI initiatives and disciplined expense management helped to offset volume deleverage pressure from lower sales.

    接著談我們對2023年的財務展望。鑑於近期DIY大額非必需支出回落,以及影響我們業務的總體因素仍具不確定性,我們更新2023全年財務展望。在此背景下,我們目前預期第四季同店銷售將與第三季結果大致一致。此外,2022年第四季包含因額外第53週帶來的約14億美元銷售。我們目前預期2023年銷售額約為860億美元,同店銷售約下滑5%。我們也預期調整後營業利益率約為13.3%,因持續推動的PPI計畫與嚴謹的費用管理,有助於抵銷因銷售下降造成的規模槓桿不利(volume deleverage)壓力。

  • Additionally, we expect full year interest expense of approximately $1.4 billion, capital expenditures of up to $2 billion and an adjusted effective income tax rate of approximately 25%. This results in an updated outlook for adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $13.

    此外,我們預期全年利息費用約為14億美元,資本支出最高達20億美元,調整後有效所得稅率約為25%。因此,我們更新後的調整後稀釋每股盈餘展望約為13美元。

  • Please note that our outlook for operating margin and diluted earnings per share are adjusted to exclude the gain associated with the sale of our Canadian business that we recorded in Q1.

    請注意,我們對營業利益率與稀釋後每股盈餘的展望已進行調整,以排除我們在第一季認列之出售加拿大業務所帶來的收益。

  • Finally, we are reconfirming our capital allocation priorities. We will continue to invest in the business to take market share, target a 35% dividend payout ratio and then return excess cash to shareholders through share repurchase, which will be funded in the near term through free cash flow.

    最後,我們重申資本配置的優先順序。我們將持續投資於業務以取得市占率,目標為35%的股利發放率,之後再透過庫藏股回購將多餘現金回饋給股東;短期內該回購將以自由現金流支應。

  • And in closing, I'm confident that our continued investments in our Total Home strategy, our strong balance sheet and our ability to effectively manage our business in any environment will allow us navigate the near-term challenges while continuing to deliver sustainable shareholder.

    最後作結,我有信心我們持續投入「全方位居家(Total Home)」策略、強健的資產負債表,以及在任何環境下有效管理業務的能力,將使我們得以因應短期挑戰,同時持續為股東帶來可持續的回報。

  • And with that, we will open it up for questions.

    接下來,我們開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Steven Forbes with Guggenheim Securities.

    (接線員指示)我們的第一個問題來自 Guggenheim Securities 的 Steven Forbes。

  • Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

  • Marvin, you mentioned in your prepared remarks the 300 rural stores comping above average and some of those categories being the best performing ones. So curious, if you can maybe help reframe how you guys are thinking through the more medium-term and longer-term opportunity there. How many stores do you think can accommodate such an assortment? And any contextualization of the spread in the DIY comp in the 300 stores versus the company average?

    Marvin,你在事先準備的發言中提到,那300家鄉村門市的同店銷售表現高於平均,且其中一些品類是表現最好的。想請你協助我們重新框架一下,你們如何看待中期與長期的機會:你們認為有多少家門市能容納這樣的商品組合?另外,能否補充一下這300家門市的DIY同店表現相較公司平均的差距背景?

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Steven, thanks for the question. We're not going to get into that level of specificity for competitive reasons, but what I will tell you is that the rural stores have exceeded expectations. And as we noted, we started out with roughly 300. But candidly, the performance and the customer response has been such that we're now looking at a couple of different options. One option is we're going into those original 300, and we're adding incremental investments initiatives, categories based on feedback from customers. We're also looking at categories that are working really well in those rural stores and asking the question, can we now take some of these categories and put them in nonrural format locations because we believe we could get the same response from customers in nonrural environments.

    Steven,謝謝你的問題。基於競爭因素,我們不會深入到那麼具體的層級;但我可以告訴你的是,鄉村門市的表現超出預期。如我們所提到的,我們一開始大約是300家。不過坦白說,因為表現與顧客回饋都非常好,我們現在正在評估幾個不同選項。其中一個選項是回到原本那300家門市,依據顧客回饋,增加額外投資的措施與品類。我們也在檢視哪些品類在這些鄉村門市運作得非常好,並思考是否能把其中一些品類導入非鄉村型態的門市,因為我們相信在非鄉村環境中也能獲得相同的顧客反應。

  • And then thirdly, we're just looking at expanding our profile and definition of rural because some of these characteristics, we think can fit other locations. And because of the response and because of the DIY customer being such a critical component of our company strategy, we think this makes a really good strategic rationale and it's something that we're pursuing. But again, we'll speak more about this on future calls, but I don't want to get into more specifics for obvious competitive reasons.

    第三,我們也在考慮擴大我們對「鄉村」的輪廓與定義,因為我們認為其中一些特徵也適用於其他地點。基於這樣的回饋,以及DIY顧客是我們公司策略中非常關鍵的一環,我們認為這具有很好的策略合理性,並且正在推進。不過,我們會在未來的電話會議上再多談一些;但出於顯而易見的競爭原因,我不想在此提供更多細節。

  • Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

  • And then maybe sticking with some initiatives here and maybe a follow-up for Bill. The front-end transformation, we're probably far enough right into it where it'd be helpful if you maybe frame the ROI of such transformations. I don't know if you can sort of maybe go through what you're seeing in terms of comp lift and/or just what is the outlook right for next year as we think through the maturation benefit of such an agenda.

    那接著談一些措施,並給Bill一個追問。前端改造計畫推進到現在應該已經有一定進度了,如果你能說明這類改造的投資報酬率(ROI)會很有幫助。不知道你是否能分享你們看到的同店提升幅度(comp lift),以及/或當我們思考這項議程的成熟效益時,對明年的展望目前是如何?

  • William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

    William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

  • Yes. So as Joe said, we've got roughly 450 stores that we'll complete by the end of the year. We continue to test and learn in these stores. As you can imagine, there's opportunities for us to try some additional merchandising opportunities up front of the store. It's all about getting another item in the basket, and there's opportunities in the obvious areas like snacks and drinks, but we're also looking at other categories as well that can complement what we're doing and also that shopper, both a Pro and a do-it-yourselfer that's making that transaction in our store that could pick that kind of stuff up and you think about like aspirin, band-aid, stuff like that, that could complement what they're doing and could be used on a job site or in a glove box of a car or at your home.

    好的。如Joe所說,我們到今年底大約會完成450家門市。我們持續在這些門市中測試並學習。你可以想像,我們在店鋪前端有機會嘗試一些額外的陳列與商品化機會;核心就是讓顧客的購物籃多放一件商品。當然在零食、飲料等明顯領域有機會,但我們也在看其他能與我們現有作法互補的品類;同時也考量到在我們店內完成交易的顧客,不論是專業客(Pro)或DIY客,都可能順手帶走這類商品。你可以想像像是阿斯匹靈、OK繃之類的東西,能與他們正在做的事情互補,也可能在工地、車子的手套箱或家中派上用場。

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • And Steve, the other thing that I'll add is this also complements the ongoing omni expansion that Joe talked about. As we extend these capabilities of connecting digital and physical stores, we need more productive space, and we need to just optimize all the things that the associates are doing to accommodate and fulfill those orders. And as Joe mentioned, part of this is to create more designated space in a more productive fashion for that process, but also it's creating a much better customer experience, and it's also driving a lot of productivity for Joe's team in the store.

    Steve,我另外補充一點:這也與Joe提到的全通路(omni)持續擴張相互補強。當我們延伸連結數位與實體門市的能力時,我們需要更高產出的空間,也需要優化門市同仁為了接單與履單所做的各項工作。如Joe所提到,其中一部分是為該流程以更高效率的方式創造更多指定空間;同時也能帶來更好的顧客體驗,並為Joe的門市團隊帶來大量生產力提升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird.

    下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Peter Benedict。

  • Peter Sloan Benedict - Senior Research Analyst

    Peter Sloan Benedict - Senior Research Analyst

  • Just kind of curious as you talked a lot about the PPI initiatives and your ability to try and be agile with expenses. If we think kind of longer term, think maybe out to next year, if there's another environment where comp store sales are maybe down in the mid-single-digit range. How do we think about your ability to manage margins in that environment? I know some of the benefit this year is cycling Canada, but just maybe some benchmarks to think about as we move to next year on how the P&L could act in different top line environments.

    你們談了很多PPI措施,以及在費用上保持敏捷的能力。若從更長期來看,可能看到明年:如果又出現一種環境,使同店銷售可能下滑到中個位數的區間,我們該如何看待你們在那種環境下管理毛利率/利潤率的能力?我知道今年部分效益來自加拿大業務的比較基期,但想請你提供一些可作為基準的思考,讓我們在展望明年時,理解在不同營收情境下損益表(P&L)可能會如何表現。

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Peter, this is Brandon. Just in terms of as we're looking at 2024, we're in the later stages of our planning process at the moment across the organization. So we're going to hold off on providing any in-depth guidance until our Q4 call. But what I will tell you just in terms of top line macro home improvement, there's continued uncertainty on interest rates, when we're going to see relief when existing home sales are going to turn the corner and begin to improve. And obviously, the ongoing impact of inflation, higher rates on consumer wallet. So we're watching all that. I think to your specific question on margins, we're managing several puts and takes as we look at next year. We're cycling onetime legal settlements, normalization of incentive comp, wage growth, the pacing of our PPI initiative. So we're looking at all that. We're going to take all those factors under consideration as we develop our guide and hold off on providing that until we get to February.

    好的,Peter,我是Brandon。就2024年而言,我們目前在全公司層面正處於規劃流程的後期階段,因此在第四季電話會議之前,我們會先暫緩提供任何深入的指引。不過就營收端的宏觀居家修繕市場來看,利率仍存在不確定性:何時能看到緩解、成屋銷售何時會觸底回升並開始改善;以及通膨與較高利率對消費者荷包的持續影響。我們都在密切觀察。針對你特別問到的利潤率,我們在看明年時需要管理多項拉鋸因素,包括一次性法律和解的比較基期、獎酬(incentive comp)的常態化、薪資成長,以及我們PPI措施的推進節奏。我們會把這些因素都納入考量來制定指引,並在2月再提供。

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Peter, this is Marvin. And the only thing I'll add is you heard in some of the prepared comments, was talking about an old operating system. And we talked a lot about this 30-year-old operating system. There's really been a significant impediment to some of the technology advancements, and we're going to be sunsetting that system at the end of this year, and it's going to just unlock a little bit of acceleration in some of the technology advancements that we have on the project list. We just candidly, we couldn't get to because of this system. And so the good news is we're going to continue to work to Brandon's point on all the elements of running an improved business from a merchandising store operations, supply chain, but also the technology project list over the next 3 to 5 years is robust, and it's going to allow us to continue to find ways to drive profitability, irrespective of the macro environment that we're in. We're hoping the macro environment gets better with Brandon's point. We're going to wait until our Q4 call to talk about '24 and give a much more educated perspective at that time.

    Peter,我是Marvin。我唯一要補充的是,你在我們部分事先準備的評論中聽到我們談到舊的作業系統——我們談了很多這套30年的作業系統。它一直是一些技術進展的重要阻礙;我們將在今年底讓該系統退役,這將釋放並加速我們專案清單中的部分技術推進。坦白說,因為這套系統,我們之前無法做到。好消息是,正如Brandon所說,我們會持續在商品、門市營運、供應鏈等各面向努力經營更好的業務;同時,未來3到5年的技術專案清單也很扎實,將使我們能持續找到提升獲利的方法,不受所處宏觀環境影響。我們也希望宏觀環境能如Brandon所說有所改善。我們會等到第四季電話會議再談2024年,並在那時提供更有根據的觀點。

  • Peter Sloan Benedict - Senior Research Analyst

    Peter Sloan Benedict - Senior Research Analyst

  • All right. Fair enough. Appreciate that perspective. I guess my follow-up would be just around maybe the cost environment that you're seeing out there, a lot of talk of -- obviously, disinflation and some outright deflation in certain areas. What are you seeing right now in terms of the cost you're receiving from your suppliers? And how do you kind of view that as we look out over the next few quarters.

    好的,了解。謝謝這個觀點。我想追問的是成本環境:市場上很多人在談——顯然是通膨降溫(disinflation),以及某些領域甚至出現通縮(deflation)。你們目前從供應商那邊收到的成本變化是什麼情況?以及你們如何看待未來幾季的走勢?

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Peter, this is Brandon. I would say just in terms of costs coming into the organization at this point, just from an inflation price action response to that. It's leveled off pretty dramatically here as we move through the year. We've had targets in terms of clawback for this year. We laid those expectations out back in December, I would say, very much pacing in line with those targets. We laid out about $500 million over the course of 3 years. We're leveraging cost management teams, working closely with the merchants, the tech-enabled tools that we've invested in. We have very detailed product cost breakdowns that are informing those negotiations with our suppliers. So we're continuing to be balanced. We're taking a portfolio approach. We're investing in price strategically where needed, but also looking through the lens of protecting our margins.

    好的,Peter,我是Brandon。我會說,就目前進入公司體系的成本而言,從通膨與相應的價格調整反應來看,隨著今年推進已相當明顯地趨於平穩。我們今年在回收(clawback)方面有設定目標;我們在去年12月就已提出這些預期,而目前的進度大致與目標一致。我們提出的是三年合計約5億美元。我們正運用成本管理團隊,與採購/商品團隊密切合作,並使用我們投資的科技賦能工具。我們有非常細緻的產品成本拆解,來支撐與供應商的談判。因此我們會持續保持平衡、採取組合式(portfolio)方法:在需要之處策略性投資於價格,同時也從保護利潤率的角度來審視。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Simeon Gutman。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • I want to try to take another stab at this margin question for next year. I know there's not a whole lot you can provide. If you think about the levers that you have do you lose any for next year? I realize you're going to lap the legal settlement in the first part of the year. And then connected to it, as you manage your selling expenses, do you think that's having an impact on sales at all? Meaning, is that not something you press on is hard for next year?

    我想再嘗試追問一次明年毛利率的問題。我知道你們能提供的資訊不多。若從你們可運用的槓桿來看,明年會不會少掉任何一項?我理解你們在年初會跨過(比較基期)法律和解的影響。再延伸一點,當你們管理銷售費用時,你們覺得這對銷售是否有任何影響?也就是說,這是否不是你們明年會大力施壓的項目?

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Simeon, this is Brandon. I wouldn't say when we look at next year, we're losing the benefit of any of those levers. In fact, I think we're looking at where we have opportunities to accelerate. We've talked about PPI, I talked about where we were in that journey in terms of middle innings. Marvin mentioned the conversion of the store technology to a modern omnichannel platform. We got a lot of initiatives stacked up where we expect to see those benefits as that gets delivered next year. Earlier question on transforming the front end really expanding assisted checkout, expanding the BOPIS experience, and then Bill talked in his prepared comments about multiple other kind of merchandising PPI initiatives, whether it's cost clawback, inventory productivity, pricing, promotional strategies, expansion of private brands. So we're really confident in that portfolio of initiatives. We feel like it's in our control. We're managing the road map and the pacing of that and have a lot of confidence as we look at the longer-term margins that we can deliver against our stated targets there.

    是的。Simeon,我是 Brandon。我不會說我們在看明年時,會失去任何這些槓桿帶來的效益。事實上,我認為我們正在尋找有哪些機會可以加速。我們談過 PPI,我也提到我們在那段旅程中的位置,大概是在中段。Marvin 提到把門店技術轉換到現代化的全通路平台。我們堆疊了很多項目,預期隨著明年交付落地,我們會看到這些效益。先前也有問題談到前端轉型,真正擴大輔助結帳、擴大 BOPIS 體驗;另外 Bill 在事先準備的發言中也談到多項其他類型的商品 PPI 計畫,不論是成本追回、庫存生產力、定價、促銷策略、自有品牌擴張等。所以我們對這一組計畫組合非常有信心。我們覺得這在我們的掌控之中。我們在管理路線圖與推進節奏,並且對於長期可達成的毛利率、以及我們所宣示的目標,有很高的信心。

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • So Simeon, this is Marvin. I'll add this perspective. The reason why we call this a perpetual productivity improvement initiatives because we're trying to stay away from onetime events. We think that good companies create an ongoing sustained process of improvement and productivity gains. And so we have a road map of initiatives. And it's important that it's not just about store operations. You heard Bill talk about the PPI initiative, specifically for merchandising. If Don Frieson was here, he could speak specifically to supply chain and Seemantini could speak specifically for IT.

    Simeon,我是 Marvin。我補充一個觀點。我們之所以稱之為「持續性生產力改善計畫」(perpetual productivity improvement initiatives),是因為我們想避免一次性事件。我們認為優秀的公司會建立一個持續、可長期維持的改善流程與生產力提升。因此我們有一份計畫路線圖,而且重點不只是門店營運。你也聽到 Bill 談到 PPI 計畫,特別是在商品端。如果 Don Frieson 在場,他可以更具體談供應鏈;Seemantini 則可以更具體談 IT。

  • And so this is a culture that we've created here that candidly did not exist, but the key word is perpetual. And that means that it's ongoing, it's consistent and it's sustainable. And so as we look at '24, we know we're not going to get into the details. What Brandon is reinforcing is that we have a list of things that we're going to do. We're well aware of what we're overlapping. We understand some of the onetime factors we're going to face. And we built processes, initiatives in place to address that. And we'll be more transparent and more detail in our Q4 call because we think it's really important to lay out to you all exactly how we see it and the steps we're going to take.

    因此,這是我們在這裡建立起來的一種文化,坦白說以前並不存在;但關鍵字是「持續性」。這代表它是持續進行的、一致的、且可持續的。當我們看 2024 年時,我們知道不會在這裡進入細節。Brandon 強調的是,我們有一份要做的事項清單。我們非常清楚我們會重疊到哪些因素,也理解將面對的一些一次性因素。我們已建立流程並配置相應的計畫來因應。我們會在第四季電話會議上提供更透明、更詳細的說明,因為我們認為把我們如何看待這件事、以及將採取的步驟清楚說明給各位,真的很重要。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • So my gentle follow-up to that, Marvin, is you have OpEx productivity and PPI. Those are the two biggest unlocks. I -- Just to clarify or an assumption, it doesn't sound like what the business comps has anything to do on what those two buckets produce. And then is there a situation in which those two buckets actually produce more in terms of sequencing in '24 than what it was yielding in '23.

    Marvin,我溫和地追問一下:你們有營運費用(OpEx)生產力與 PPI,這兩項是最大的解鎖來源。我只是想釐清或確認一個假設:聽起來業務的同店比較(comp)與這兩個桶(兩大類)能產出多少並沒有關係。那是否存在一種情況:就 2024 年的時序安排而言,這兩個桶實際產出的效益會比 2023 年更高?

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • So I'll give you the perspective of a long-term operator. If we get the top line, PPI works a whole lot better. So irrespective we're going to intensify the focus. Obviously, if we have a softer top line perspective, we're going to be a lot more aggressive in the PPI side. But irrespective of our comp outlook, PPI is going to be in existence, and we're going to work really hard to make sure that we hit some of the key targets that we lay out. And again, you have our commitment that as we lay out 2024 as best we can, we'll be as transparent as possible about all of these things in our February call.

    我以長期營運者的角度給你一個看法:如果我們能把營收端(top line)做起來,PPI 的效果會好很多。所以不論如何,我們都會加強聚焦。當然,如果我們對營收端的看法較疲弱,我們在 PPI 端會更積極。但不管同店展望如何,PPI 都會持續存在,我們也會非常努力確保達成我們所提出的一些關鍵目標。同樣地,我們承諾在 2 月的電話會議中,當我們盡可能把 2024 年的規劃說清楚時,會就所有這些事項盡可能透明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions are from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Chris Horvers。

  • Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

  • I want to focus a bit on the top line. You've seen increased big-ticket sensitivity, others are talking about, you mentioned flooring. People are doing smaller projects, you're not buying the suite of appliances, you're doing the bathroom, not the entire first floor and flooring. I guess -- so my question is, why isn't the Pro and the remodel business or maybe the remodel business and the answer is different from you on the Pro because of share, but why isn't the remodel business and the Pro business the next shoe to drop? And given the changes that you've seen over the past 3 or 4 months, how are you thinking about the bottom of the comp cycle and sort of when does it start to revert back to positive?

    我想把焦點放在營收端。你們看到大件商品的敏感度提高,其他人也在談這點,你們也提到地板。人們在做較小的專案:不再一次買整套家電,只做浴室,而不是整個一樓加地板。我想問的是:為什麼專業客(Pro)與翻修(remodel)業務,或許是翻修業務(而對 Pro 的答案可能因市占而不同),為什麼不會是下一隻掉下來的鞋?另外,考量過去 3 到 4 個月你們看到的變化,你們如何看待同店週期的底部,以及大概何時會開始回到正成長?

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • So Chris, I'll take the first part of that, and I'm going to just let Bill Boltz talk about some of the initiatives relative to addressing some of the top line concerns. So specific on sales for us, when we look at the quarter, we look at it from a penetration from a DIY perspective and a product mix. So as a reminder, 14% of our revenue comes from appliances. So when you have pull back on some of these big-ticket categories like appliances, is going to be disproportionately impactful for us.

    Chris,我先回答第一部分,然後我會請 Bill Boltz 談一些針對營收端疑慮的相關措施。就我們的銷售而言,當我們看這一季時,我們會從 DIY 的滲透率與產品組合來看。提醒一下,我們 14% 的營收來自家電。因此,當像家電這類大件品類出現回落時,對我們的影響會相對更大。

  • Having said that, we look at the Pro and to your point, we had a positive comp, and we're really pleased with that, and I went through some of the investments we've made over the course of the last 4 years that we believe are paying dividends relative to that specific small or medium Pro. And the reason we think that, that specific segment of Pro will remain healthy, although cautious, as we've noted from our survey is because of the age of homes. I mean it is a foregone conclusion that if you have a house over 40 years old, things are going to break. And when those things break and those repairs are required that smaller-to-medium contractor is typically the one that's going to get that call.

    話雖如此,我們看 Pro 業務,正如你所說,我們同店為正,我們對此非常滿意。我也說明了過去 4 年我們所做的一些投資,我們相信這些投資正在對特定的小型或中型 Pro 客群帶來回報。我們之所以認為這個特定的 Pro 區隔會維持健康(雖然如我們調查所示仍偏謹慎),是因為房屋屋齡。我的意思是,如果房子超過 40 年,東西一定會壞,這幾乎是必然的結論。而當東西壞了、需要維修時,通常就是那種小到中型承包商會接到電話。

  • And these pros are incredibly transparent with us and 70% say they feel really good about their backlog. But they also said that when they watch the news and they read the headlines, they're a little cautious because they just don't know what's lurking around the corner, but they're busy because these homes are old. These homes are not turning, so people are living in these homes. And so that's really the driver of that customer segment remaining healthy and busy. And look, we can't predict the bottom. But what we can say is that we're incredibly disciplined. Anytime you can deliver a 46 basis point improvement in operating margin on a negative 7.4% comp.

    而這些 Pro 對我們非常坦率,有 70% 表示他們對手上待完成的訂單(backlog)感覺很好。但他們也說,當他們看新聞、讀標題時會有點謹慎,因為不知道轉角會冒出什麼風險;不過他們仍然很忙,因為這些房子很老。這些房子沒有在換手,所以人們仍住在這些房子裡。因此,這就是該客群仍然健康且忙碌的主要驅動因素。至於底部,我們無法預測。但我們能說的是,我們的紀律性非常強。當你能在同店下滑 7.4% 的情況下,仍交出營業利益率提升 46 個基點。

  • It tells you that there are a lot of really things working from a productivity standpoint that drives margin rate improvement and basis point improvement in customer service that we're really proud of. So we feel good about the execution of the team, and we can't predict kind of what's going to happen when, but we can say whenever it happens, we're well positioned to take advantage of it. And I'll pivot to Bill just to talk about kind of what we're trying to do to remain agile and to try to make sure that we are driving a business environment that's attracting DIY customers and keeping these Pros coming back also.

    這告訴你,從生產力角度有很多事情正在發揮作用,推動毛利率(margin rate)改善與基點改善,同時也帶來我們非常自豪的客戶服務提升。因此我們對團隊的執行力感到很有信心;我們無法預測何時、會發生什麼,但我們可以說,不論何時發生,我們都已做好準備把握機會。接著我把話題交給 Bill,請他談談我們如何保持敏捷,並確保我們正在打造一個能吸引 DIY 客戶、同時也讓這些 Pro 願意持續回流的營運環境。

  • William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

    William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

  • Yes. Thanks, Marvin. And Chris, just some of the things that we've talked about really over the last few quarters that I'm pleased with the work that the team has done is the continued acquiring of brands and making sure that we've got relevant assortments inside of our stores and online. And so we announced today Toro as part of our outdoor power equipment. We talked about Klein last quarter, and we're just starting to get that brand now into the electrical and the tool category. So that's excitement for us. We talked about localized assortments and Marvin touched briefly on the rural strategy. That's just one element of a localized opportunity.

    好的,謝謝你,Marvin。Chris,過去幾季我們談到的一些事情,我很高興團隊持續推進的工作包括:持續引進品牌,並確保我們在門店與線上都有具相關性的商品組合。因此我們今天宣布 Toro 納入我們的戶外動力設備(outdoor power equipment)。我們上季談到 Klein,而我們現在才剛開始把這個品牌導入電工與工具品類。這讓我們很振奮。我們也談到在地化商品組合,Marvin 也簡要提到鄉村(rural)策略;那只是其中一個在地化機會的要素。

  • And then we continue to try to pivot to where the customer is. So as -- we've seen some of the softening in appliances from an industry-wide standpoint, because we're the industry leader here, we want to make sure that we can meet the customer where they want us to meet them, and that's adjusting. And so we feel like the adjustments the teams have made to make sure that we can go after the 100,000-plus appliances that break in the United States every single week that we're there when the consumer needs us both online and in-store. We continue to enhance our fundamentals and our foundation online. And so offering Apple Pay as a way to make it easier for the customer to transact online. This is just one element, same-day delivery and then obviously being seasonally relevant.

    接著我們會持續嘗試把重心轉向客戶所在之處。因此,當我們從全產業角度看到家電品類出現一些趨緩時,因為我們是這個領域的產業領導者,我們希望確保能在客戶希望我們出現的地方與他們接觸,而這就需要調整。因此,我們認為團隊所做的調整,能確保我們可以鎖定美國每週超過10萬台故障的家電需求,並在消費者需要我們時,無論線上或門市都能即時到位。我們也持續強化線上端的基本功與基礎建設。例如提供 Apple Pay,讓客戶更容易在線上完成交易。這只是其中一個要素;同日送達,以及當然要符合季節性需求,也同樣重要。

  • As we go into this Friday with Black Friday, it's about making sure that we've got strong offers out there that gets the customer to the door into the website. And that's the stuff that we'll continue to do. And at the same time, we have to be competitively priced. We've got to be relevant every single day. And so that's the kind of work that the team continues to stay focused on. And it takes time, obviously, to get that customer to know that these changes have happened inside of our store and online, and we're just going to just stay focused on what we can control.

    當我們迎來本週五的黑色星期五,重點在於確保我們推出足夠有力的優惠,能把客戶帶進門市或導流到網站。這些都是我們會持續去做的。同時,我們必須具備具競爭力的定價;我們必須每天都保持相關性。因此,這就是團隊持續專注的工作。而且,讓客戶知道我們在門市與線上所做的這些改變,顯然需要時間;我們會持續專注在我們能掌控的事情上。

  • Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

  • And then my follow-up is, again, on the Pro side. As you think about the momentum in that business over this year or what you're seeing in the basket in terms of the projects that they're doing. Whether it's size or price point -- price spectrum, is there any change in momentum on the Pro side of the business?

    接著我的追問,仍然是關於 Pro(專業客戶)端。當你們思考今年該業務的動能,或你們在購物籃中看到他們所做專案的情況時——不論是規模或價格帶(價格區間)——在 Pro 端的業務動能上,有沒有任何變化?

  • Joseph Michael McFarland - EVP of Stores

    Joseph Michael McFarland - EVP of Stores

  • Chris, thanks for the question. And listen, we can tell you that with the Pro loyalty and CRM that we launched, we continue to view the basket. We continue to view the mix. We are very encouraged and continue to exceed expectation in the core metrics. And we continue to launch new capabilities, things like online quotes for the bulk pricing that Bill talked about. In my prepared remarks, I mentioned the integrated same-day gig delivery, streamlined order tracking. And so there's a lot going into that Pro from an effort standpoint. And so we continue to be pleased at the progress.

    Chris,謝謝你的提問。聽著,我們可以告訴你,隨著我們推出的 Pro 忠誠計畫與 CRM,我們持續觀察購物籃表現,也持續觀察組合。我們非常受到鼓舞,且在核心指標上持續超出預期。我們也持續推出新能力,例如 Bill 提到的針對大量採購定價的線上報價功能。在我事先準備的發言中,我提到整合同日的零工(gig)配送、簡化的訂單追蹤。因此,在 Pro 端我們投入了很多努力。總之,我們對進展仍然感到滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from the line of Seth Sigman with Barclays.

    下一題來自 Barclays 的 Seth Sigman。

  • Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

    Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

  • So I wanted to follow up on pricing and promotional activity. Obviously, you talked about elevated promotions in appliances, and how that's being funded by vendors. I realize that category is a little bit unique, but how would you categorize discounting activity across other categories? And maybe you could also just elaborate on what you have seen and what you've been doing with that low price guarantee?

    我想追問定價與促銷活動。顯然你們談到家電品類的促銷提升,以及這些促銷如何由供應商出資。我理解該品類有點特殊,但你們會如何描述其他品類的折扣活動?另外,你們也能否進一步說明一下,你們看到的情況,以及你們在「低價保證」方面做了哪些事?

  • William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

    William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

  • Yes, Seth, it's Bill. And so just a couple of things here. As I said, we are seeing probably more of a move on pre-pandemic levels of promotion, specifically in the appliance area. These are largely vendor supported, but we want to make sure that we're there, obviously, and we're part of all that. As it relates to the overall, the industry remains pretty rational and pretty stable. You want to make sure that at certain times of the year, you're out there with the relevant offers and that you're doing the things that you need to do. So whether that's in the spring or this Black Friday, we're excited about having some of those offers out there and working within the guardrails and the profitability targets that we've established.

    是的,Seth,我是 Bill。這裡有幾點。正如我所說,我們看到促銷大概更回到疫情前的水準,特別是在家電領域。這些多半由供應商支持,但我們也希望確保我們當然在場並參與其中。就整體而言,產業仍然相當理性且相當穩定。你要確保在一年中的某些時點,能推出相關的優惠,並做你需要做的事。因此,不論是春季或這次黑色星期五,我們都很期待推出一些優惠,同時在我們已建立的護欄與獲利目標範圍內運作。

  • But all in all, it remains, I think, relatively rational. I think the consumer is looking for value, and so we've got to find different ways to highlight value, and those are the things that this team is doing and value can come a lot of ways outside of just a reduction in price. You can highlight it through new and innovative products. You can highlight it through a special offer if that's what comes out, or we can do it through a vendor-funded promotion. So those are things that we're trying to take advantage of.

    但總體來看,我認為仍然相對理性。我認為消費者在尋求價值,因此我們必須找到不同方式去凸顯價值,而這正是團隊正在做的事。價值可以透過很多方式呈現,不只是降價。你可以透過新穎創新的產品來凸顯;如果有合適的特別優惠,也可以透過特別優惠來凸顯;或者我們也可以透過供應商出資的促銷來做到。因此,這些都是我們正嘗試加以運用的。

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • And Seth, this is Brandon. I would just add the adjustments that Bill is talking about that we're making as the consumers changing as we're moving through the year, our go-to-market strategy, all of that's fully embedded and reflected in our updated outlook and confidence that we're able to achieve our flat gross margins for the year.

    Seth,我是 Brandon。我補充一下:Bill 所談到的、我們在一年推進過程中因應消費者變化所做的調整,以及我們的市場進入策略(go-to-market strategy)等,這些都已完整納入並反映在我們更新後的展望中,也支撐我們對於今年能達成毛利率持平的信心。

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • And Seth on a low price guarantee, our research just indicated that we needed a more simplistic straightforward message to the customers about our value. We had something that was a little too cute, call it, a price promise that I think was way too ambiguous, and we just decided just to keep it simple and stand by the fact that we will support the lowest price in the industry on the products that we sell. We just launched it. We think the timing is perfect going into a holiday season where you have a slightly cautious consumer looking for a value. And so you take everything that Bill said about the definition of value and the fact that we're going to put media behind this lowest price guarantee. We hope that sends a message to the consumer that they could always expect a lowest price at Lowe's.

    Seth,關於低價保證,我們的研究顯示,我們需要向客戶傳達一個更簡單、直接的價值訊息。我們之前的做法有點太「花俏」——可以說是一個價格承諾(price promise),我認為它過於模糊;因此我們決定把事情簡化,並堅持我們會在所銷售的產品上支持業界最低價。我們才剛推出這項措施。我們認為在進入假期季、面對略為謹慎且尋求價值的消費者時,時機非常剛好。因此,結合 Bill 所說對「價值」的定義,以及我們將投入媒體資源宣傳這項最低價保證,我們希望能向消費者傳達一個訊息:在 Lowe's,他們永遠可以期待拿到最低價。

  • Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

    Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's very helpful. I did have one follow-up on capital allocation, specifically share repurchases. Just based on what you've done year-to-date, where leverage sits today, how do you think about the pace of buybacks from here? Should we be thinking about that starting to slow into the fourth quarter and even over the next couple of quarters based on the demand backdrop. How do we think about that?

    好的,這很有幫助。我還有一個關於資本配置的追問,特別是庫藏股回購。就你們今年迄今的執行情況、目前槓桿水準而言,你們如何看待接下來回購的節奏?基於需求背景,我們是否應該預期第四季開始放慢,甚至在接下來幾個季度也放慢?我們該如何理解?

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Seth, this is Brandon. So our capital allocation priorities unchanged. We're going to continue to invest in the business in high-return projects, targeting a 35% dividend payout ratio and funneling the remainder to share repurchases. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we do expect funding share repurchases through operating cash flow here in the near term and expect modest if any share repo in Q4 also expect to be in line with our stated leverage target at the end of the year. So we're also looking at our debt towers, paying those off as they mature. We have $500 million this past Q3. We have $450 million coming due in 2024, and we remain committed to our BBB+ credit rating and expect to manage our leverage accordingly.

    Seth,我是 Brandon。我們的資本配置優先順序不變。我們會持續投資於高報酬的業務專案,目標是 35% 的股利支付率,並將其餘資金用於股票回購。正如我在事先準備的發言中提到的,我們預期短期內將以營運現金流來支應股票回購,並預期第四季回購金額不大(若有的話也僅屬溫和)。我們也預期在年底時能符合我們所宣示的槓桿目標。同時,我們也在檢視我們的到期債務梯(debt towers),並在到期時償還。第三季我們有 5 億美元到期;2024 年還有 4.5 億美元到期。我們仍致力維持 BBB+ 的信用評等,並預期會據此管理我們的槓桿水準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.

    下一題來自 UBS 的 Michael Lasser。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • Given the importance of sales to the PPI initiative, if you're looking at, call it, another down 5% comp next year, do you start to become more aggressive with promotions or other actions in order to start to drive sales because you'll get a return on it in other ways?

    鑑於銷售對 PPI 計畫的重要性,如果你們看到明年同店銷售(comp)再下滑 5% 左右,你們是否會開始在促銷或其他行動上更積極,以推動銷售,因為你們能在其他方面獲得回報?

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Michael, we're not going to get into 2024 at this time. We'll speak more specifically about that on the Q4 call. What I'll just repeat is PPI is perpetual for a reason. We're going to keep doing it. It's sustainable, it's ongoing, and we're going to be agile. We'll take the necessary steps to make sure we're running a really sound business thinking first about driving service for the customers and giving our associates a great place to work. But other than that, PPI will be in place irrespective of top line, and we'll adjust it accordingly.

    Michael,我們目前不會談 2024 年。我們會在第四季電話會議上更具體地說明。我只重申:PPI 之所以稱為「持續性(perpetual)」是有原因的。我們會持續推進;它是可持續的、是持續進行的,而且我們會保持敏捷。我們會採取必要步驟,確保我們經營的是一家非常健全的企業,首先著眼於提升對客戶的服務,並為同仁提供一個很棒的工作場所。但除此之外,不論營收端表現如何,PPI 都會持續存在,我們也會相應調整。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • Okay. My follow-up question is, Marvin, as you look at your sales by market, by region, and tie to the underlying housing characteristics and dynamics in those markets, where are you seeing better trends? And where are you seeing worse trends such that it informs how you think about how the rest of this cycle is going to unfold from here. It's likely at some point, hopefully, housing turnover is going to pick up. That could bode well for home improvement demand. But if it comes with a corresponding tick down in home prices, that could be not so good for home improvement demand.

    好的。我接著的追問是,Marvin,當你按市場、按區域來看銷售,並把它與這些市場的住房特徵與動態連結起來時,你們在哪些地方看到較好的趨勢?又在哪些地方看到較差的趨勢?這些如何影響你們對於本輪週期接下來將如何演變的判斷。很可能在某個時間點——希望如此——房屋交易周轉會回升,這可能有利於居家修繕需求。但如果同時伴隨房價相應下滑,那對居家修繕需求可能就不太有利。

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Michael, it's a fair question. If you strip out storm overlaps, geographically, our performance is relatively balanced. So there are really no outliers. When you look at markets that had a dramatic run-up in housing costs and some level of moderation, there's really no material impact to our business based on that. Obviously, it's something that we stay very close to. We're paying attention to it. But as of right now, it's not material, and we don't see it as something that's going to affect our business in the near term.

    Michael,這是個合理的問題。若把風暴重疊因素剔除,從地理分布來看,我們的表現相對均衡,因此實際上沒有明顯的離群值。當你看那些房屋成本曾大幅上漲、且出現一定程度降溫的市場時,這對我們業務並沒有實質性的影響。當然,這是我們會非常密切關注的事情,我們一直在留意。但就目前而言,它並不重大,我們也不認為它會在短期內影響我們的業務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer & Company.

    下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer & Company 的 Brian Nagel。

  • Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

    Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So a couple of questions on top line. I'm just going to merge them together. But first off, a big follow-up just on appliances. So Marvin, you talked about maybe some normalization in overall promotion vendor led. I guess the question I have on appliances, are you seeing anything shift in the market? I mean obviously, we're against the demand backdrop. But are you seeing anything shift from a competitive standpoint? And then my second question, just with respect to the underlying cadence of the business. We saw, it would appear to be a weakening trends through the fiscal third quarter and then presumably here into the fourth quarter. Anything that you can -- clearly, there's seasonal factors there, but is there anything else you could really call out that they have -- you guys identified as kind of a driver of that we can trend the overall business?

    我有幾個關於營收端(top line)的问题。我就把它們合併一起問。首先是關於家電的一個重要追問。Marvin,你提到整體促銷可能會出現一些常態化,且主要由供應商主導。我對家電的問題是:你們是否看到市場上有任何變化?我的意思是,顯然我們面對的是需求背景,但從競爭角度來看,你們是否看到任何轉變?第二個問題是關於業務的底層節奏。我們看到——看起來在第三財季期間趨勢在走弱,然後推測在第四財季也延續。你們能否——當然有季節性因素,但除此之外,是否還有其他你們可以特別指出、你們已識別為驅動因素的內容,讓我們可以用來觀察整體業務的趨勢?

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Michael, I'll take both and just allow Brandon or Bill to jump in if they have any additional comments. On the appliance shift, I mean we're not seeing anything other than what Bill talked about, where you have vendor-funded promotions kind of driving average ticket down. And also, as we mentioned in the prepared comments, we're seeing customers being just a little more specific on their purchases going from an entire suite to just a refrigerator as an example.

    Michael,我先回答兩個問題,如果 Brandon 或 Bill 有補充也請他們加入。關於家電的變化,我們沒有看到除了 Bill 提到的情況之外的其他變化,也就是由供應商出資的促銷在某種程度上拉低了平均客單價。另外,正如我們在事先準備的發言中提到的,我們也看到顧客在購買上變得更具體,例如從購買整套組合改為只買一台冰箱。

  • And I think this is just the cautious nature of the DIY discretionary spending on some of these bigger ticket categories we talked about. We already market leader in the U.S. in appliances. And as I mentioned earlier, 14% of our annual revenue is predicated to appliances. And so when the market is soft, we have a disproportionate impact. Having said that, we feel great about our market-leading position. And as Bill outlined, we have some competitive offers on single unit purchases for the holiday season, that's the best in the industry. And so we feel like we're in a good place relative to the marketplace.

    我認為這反映了我們所談到的一些較高單價品類中,DIY 可選性支出更為謹慎的特性。我們已是美國家電市場的領導者。正如我先前提到的,我們年度營收中有 14% 來自家電。因此當市場疲軟時,我們受到的影響會相對更大。即便如此,我們對自身的市場領先地位感到非常有信心。而且如 Bill 所概述,我們在假期季針對單件購買推出了一些具競爭力的優惠,這在業界是最好的。因此,相較於市場,我們認為自己處於有利位置。

  • On weakening trends, there's not anything we can put our finger on it. I mean you know all the macro indicators with the resumption of student loan debt and sustained inflation, interest rates. And I just think that those things combined with the fact that people are just choosing to take discretionary dollars and have more experiences with those dollars is really leading into some of the things that we're seeing. And when those discretionary categories are impacted, those are typically DIY-related purchases. And again, at 75% penetration in DIY, we just have a disproportionate impact to that. So I'll let Brandon or Bill add anything else if they have it in addition to what I just said.

    至於趨勢走弱,我們沒有任何可以明確指出的單一因素。你也知道,宏觀指標包括學生貸款債務恢復償還、持續的通膨、利率等。我認為這些因素再加上人們選擇把可支配資金用在更多體驗上,確實導致了我們所看到的一些現象。而當這些可選性品類受到影響時,通常就是與 DIY 相關的購買。再者,我們在 DIY 的滲透率達到 75%,因此對此的影響也會相對更大。我先說到這裡,若 Brandon 或 Bill 還有其他補充,請他們再加上。

  • William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

    William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

  • The only thing that I would add, Brian, is that just, as I said earlier, just a reminder that over 100,000 units of appliances break in the marketplace every week. And we've got to be there for that consumer as the market leader, and that's what we're trying to do and do that in a responsible manner to make sure that we can hit all the financial targets that we need to hit. But also make sure that we can meet the customer where they want to be met, both online and in-store.

    Brian,我唯一想補充的是,正如我先前所說,提醒一下:市場上每週都有超過 100,000 台家電故障。我們作為市場領導者,必須在那裡服務這位消費者,這正是我們努力要做的事,而且要以負責任的方式來做,確保我們能達成所有需要達成的財務目標。同時也要確保我們能在顧客希望被服務的地方與方式滿足他們,不論是線上或門市。

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And Brian, this is Brandon. Just to wrap it out in terms of how we are looking at Q4. I think our outlook largely a continuation of the macro and the traffic trends that we've experienced in Q3. We do expect a light or a slight impact from lumber deflation as we transition into Q4. All of the offers that Bill has talked about with appliance holiday offers are reflected in there. We do expect some light pressure from cycling Hurricane Ian. So we've triangulated all that. We've looked at 1, 2, 4-year trends all of that sort of baked into the expectations that we set, and we believe it's very achievable for us here for Q4.

    是的。Brian,我是 Brandon。最後補充一下我們如何看待第四財季(Q4)。我認為我們的展望在很大程度上是第三財季(Q3)所經歷的宏觀環境與客流趨勢的延續。隨著我們進入 Q4,我們預期木材通縮會帶來輕微或小幅影響。Bill 所談到的家電假期優惠都已反映在其中。我們也預期在對比去年颶風 Ian 的基期時會有一些輕微壓力。因此我們把這些因素都綜合考量。我們檢視了 1 年、2 年、4 年的趨勢,這些都已納入我們所設定的預期之中,我們相信在 Q4 對我們而言是非常可達成的。

  • Kate Pearlman - VP of IR

    Kate Pearlman - VP of IR

  • Thank you all for joining us today. We'd like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving and a wonderful holiday season, and we look forward to speaking with you on our fourth quarter earnings call in February.

    感謝各位今天加入我們。我們想祝大家感恩節快樂,以及有個美好的假期季,我們也期待在二月的第四財季財報電話會議上再與各位交流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the Lowe's third quarter 2023 earnings call. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。本次 Lowe's 2023 年第三財季財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷線。