勞氏公司 (LOW) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Lowe's 報告第二季度可比銷售額下降,但其專業版和在線版塊實現正增長。該公司正在投資其 Total Home 戰略並擴展其交付模式。他們專注於提高生產力並利用農村商店實現銷售增長。

Lowe's 優先考慮可持續發展,並捐款支持洪水救援工作和野火恢復。該公司公佈第二季度業績,稀釋後每股收益為 4.56 美元,銷售額為 250 億美元。他們重申了全年財務前景,並對自己擴大市場份額的能力仍然充滿信心。儘管行業面臨挑戰,Lowe's 仍預計將跑贏市場。

他們致力於通過 PPI 努力提高營業利潤率。該公司對自己適應家裝環境並保持以客戶為中心的能力充滿信心。他們專注於通過各種舉措為客戶提供價值並改善其業務運營。

演講者感謝團隊的工作,並提到即將在 11 月份召開的財報電話會議。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Lowe's Companies Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Rob, and I'll be your operator for today's call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    各位早安,歡迎參加 Lowe's Companies 2023 會計年度第二季財報電話會議。我是 Rob,將擔任今天電話會議的接線員。提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Kate Pearlman, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer.

    接下來我將把電話會議交給投資人關係副總裁兼財務主管 Kate Pearlman。

  • Kate Pearlman - VP of IR

    Kate Pearlman - VP of IR

  • Thank you, and good morning. Here with me today are Marvin Ellison, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Bill Boltz, our Executive Vice President, Merchandising; Joe McFarland, our Executive Vice President Stores; and Brandon Sink, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝,各位早安。今天與我一同出席的有:董事長兼執行長 Marvin Ellison;我們的商品採購執行副總裁 Bill Boltz;門市營運執行副總裁 Joe McFarland;以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Brandon Sink。

  • I would like to remind you that our notice regarding forward-looking statements is included in our press release this morning, which can be found on Lowe's Investor Relations website. During this call, we will be making comments that are forward-looking, including our expectations for fiscal 2023. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied as a result of various risks, uncertainties and important factors, including those discussed in the risk factors, MD&A and other sections of our annual report on Form 10-K and our other SEC filings. Additionally, we'll be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these items to U.S. GAAP can be found in the quarterly earnings section of our Investor Relations website.

    我想提醒各位,我們今早新聞稿中已包含關於前瞻性陳述的公告,可於 Lowe's 投資人關係網站查閱。在本次電話會議中,我們將發表前瞻性評論,包括對 2023 會計年度的預期。由於各種風險、不確定性及重要因素(包括我們在 Form 10-K 年報的風險因素、管理階層討論與分析(MD&A)及其他章節,以及其他向 SEC 提交的文件中所討論者),實際結果可能與明示或暗示的內容有重大差異。此外,我們也將討論若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些項目與美國 GAAP 的調節表可於我們投資人關係網站的季度財報專區查閱。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to Marvin.

    現在我把電話會議交給 Marvin。

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Thank you, Kate, and good morning, everyone. For the second quarter, comparable sales declined 1.6%. Our results were driven by a strong spring recovery, combined with continued growth in Pro and online, which helped to offset softer DIY discretionary spending and 160 basis points of pressure from lumber deflation.

    謝謝你,Kate,各位早安。第二季同店銷售下滑 1.6%。我們的表現主要受惠於強勁的春季需求回升,加上 Pro(專業客戶)與線上業務持續成長,部分抵銷了 DIY(自行動手)可選性支出的疲弱,以及木材價格通縮帶來的 160 個基點壓力。

  • Q2 also reflected the importance of our ongoing investments in our Total Home strategy. And despite an uncertain macro, these investments are paying-off with positive comps in Pro and 6.9% comparable sales growth online as we continue to improve our omnichannel experience. We're pleased that our core Pro customer to small to mid-sized Pro remains resilient and continues to respond to our expanded national brands, MVP's Pro Rewards program and enhanced online tools. In our most recent survey, nearly 75% of Pros reported healthy project backlogs and lead volumes remain consistent with recent quarters. This quarter, we launched a new same-day delivery option on lowes.com and our mobile app powered by Onerail, enabling us to tap into their network of 12 million drivers to deliver directly to Pro job sites and consumer homes in a matter of hours. This new capability allows us to leverage our 1,700-plus store footprint to make those much needed last-minute deliveries to Pro job sites, saving them both time and money.

    第二季也反映出我們持續投資「Total Home」策略的重要性。儘管總體環境不確定,這些投資正帶來回報:Pro 同店銷售為正,線上同店銷售成長 6.9%,我們也持續改善全通路體驗。我們很高興看到核心 Pro 客群(小型至中型專業客戶)仍具韌性,並持續對我們擴增的全國性品牌、MVP 的 Pro Rewards 計畫以及強化的線上工具做出正面回應。在我們最近一次調查中,近 75% 的 Pro 表示其專案待辦量健康,且潛在案源量與近幾季一致。本季我們在 lowes.com 與行動 App 上推出由 Onerail 支援的全新當日送達選項,使我們得以運用其 1,200 萬名司機的網路,在數小時內直接配送至 Pro 工地與消費者住家。這項新能力讓我們能善用超過 1,700 家門市的據點,完成 Pro 工地所需的臨時最後一刻配送,為他們同時節省時間與成本。

  • Our expanded same-day delivery capability is the latest of many examples of how we are meeting our customers where they are and making home improvement shopping faster and more convenient for both Pro and DIY customers. We're also making strides in the rollout of our market delivery model for big and bulky products with 13 geographic regions now supporting more than 1,200 stores, and we are on track to complete the initial rollout by the end of the year. As we invest in what will drive our future growth, we remain disciplined in improving productivity through our perpetual productivity improvement initiatives or PPI.

    我們擴大的當日送達能力,是我們如何在客戶所在之處與其互動、並讓 Pro 與 DIY 客戶的居家修繕購物更快速、更便利的眾多例子之一。我們也在大型與笨重商品的市場配送模式推行上取得進展,目前已有 13 個地理區域支援超過 1,200 家門市,並按計畫在年底前完成初步推行。在投資未來成長動能的同時,我們仍透過「持續性生產力改善計畫」(PPI)保持紀律,提升生產力。

  • In the second quarter, operating margin expanded 18 basis points, leading to diluted earnings per share of $4.56. A common misperception we hear is that our productivity journey must be close to its end as we've driven significant operating margin leverage since beginning our transformation 5 years ago. But the reality is we still have a lot of opportunity ahead. We're in the final phases of sunsetting our 30-year operating system, in addition to the productivity benefits of using intuitive touchscreens instead of hard to navigate green screens. This conversion gives us the modern foundation needed to quickly build and scale new omnichannel capabilities for the future. And we also continue to leverage our penetration of rural stores to drive sales productivity. We run these stores with a lower expense base than the rest of our portfolio and our ability to generate outsized operating margin leverage on sales growth is unique.

    第二季營業利益率擴張 18 個基點,帶動稀釋後每股盈餘達 4.56 美元。我們常聽到一個普遍的誤解:由於自 5 年前啟動轉型以來,我們已推動顯著的營業利益率槓桿,因此生產力提升之路應該接近尾聲。但事實是,我們前方仍有很大的機會。我們正處於淘汰使用 30 年的作業系統的最後階段,同時也享有以直覺式觸控螢幕取代難以操作的綠色螢幕所帶來的生產力效益。這項轉換為我們提供現代化基礎,使我們能快速建置並擴大全新的全通路能力,以因應未來。我們也持續運用在鄉村門市的滲透率來提升銷售生產力。相較於其他門市組合,我們以較低的費用基礎營運這些門市,而我們在銷售成長時能產生更高的營業利益率槓桿,具備獨特性。

  • Specifically, the expansion of our rural product assortment, combined with the implementation of our PPI initiatives, make our rural and remote stores a competitive advantage for our company. Beyond the productivity initiatives underway in stores, our leaders across all functional areas are executing against dozens of PPI work streams to deliver sustained operating margin improvement. One example of this is in our supply chain where we are driving greater throughput with new mobile applications combined with automation and robotics to improve productivity, maximize speed and minimize damages. And we're piloting a new break pack process, which leverages automation to break down cases 5x faster, making it far more efficient to replenish stores. And as we drive productivity, we also continue to focus on sustainability as the two often go hand in hand. And we recently published our 20th corporate responsibility report, spotlighting our path to net zero emissions along with our investments in our associates and communities. As we speak with investors, many of your questions have centered on the macro environment.

    具體而言,擴充鄉村門市的商品組合,加上導入 PPI 計畫,使我們的鄉村與偏遠門市成為公司的競爭優勢。除了門市端正在推動的生產力計畫外,我們各職能領域的領導團隊也正針對數十條 PPI 工作流程執行,以帶來可持續的營業利益率改善。其中一個例子是在供應鏈方面:我們透過新的行動應用程式,結合自動化與機器人技術,提高處理吞吐量以改善生產力、最大化速度並將損壞降至最低。我們也在試行新的 break pack(拆箱分揀)流程,運用自動化將拆箱速度提升至 5 倍,使門市補貨效率大幅提高。在推動生產力的同時,我們也持續聚焦永續發展,因為兩者往往相輔相成。我們近期發布第 20 份企業責任報告,聚焦我們邁向淨零排放的路徑,以及對員工與社區的投資。當我們與投資人交流時,許多問題都聚焦在總體環境。

  • And as a reminder, the 2 strongest demand drivers of our business are real disposable personal income and home price appreciation, and they are most supportive of demand when they pull in tandem. Home price appreciation has slowed, but it's still up 35% versus pre-pandemic while rural disposable income has been pressured by persistent inflation and elevated interest rates. But on a positive note, over the past quarter, growth in real disposable income started to improve and realign with long-term trends with growing wages surpassing inflation for the first time in 2 years. Consumer sentiment has also improved slightly but remains below pre-pandemic baselines, and inflation concerns linger. However, improvements in sentiment typically must be sustained for a period of time before that translates to consumer spending. As a result, home improvement shoppers remain cautious with their spend, especially big-ticket discretionary purchases and are more focused on smaller repair and maintenance projects. These trends are consistent with our expectations and reinforced our outlook for our relevant market to be down mid-single digits in the second half of the year with our sales continuing to outpace the market by 100 to 200 basis points.

    提醒各位,我們業務最強的兩項需求驅動因素是「實質可支配個人所得」與「房價上漲」,當兩者同步走強時,對需求的支撐最為明顯。房價漲幅已放緩,但相較疫情前仍上升 35%;而鄉村地區的可支配所得則受到持續通膨與偏高利率的壓力。不過正面的是,過去一季實質可支配所得的成長開始改善,並重新與長期趨勢對齊,薪資成長在 2 年來首次超越通膨。消費者信心也略有改善,但仍低於疫情前基準,且對通膨的疑慮仍在。然而,信心的改善通常需要維持一段時間,才會轉化為消費支出。因此,居家修繕消費者在支出上仍偏謹慎,特別是高單價的可選性購買,並更聚焦於較小型的修繕與維護專案。這些趨勢符合我們的預期,也支持我們對相關市場在下半年將下滑中個位數百分比的展望,而我們的銷售將持續領先市場 100 至 200 個基點。

  • Looking ahead, it's encouraging to consider that home improvement projects are typically postponed rather than canceled. And home improvement spend as a percentage of home equity is below the historical average, a positive indicator for medium-term demand as consumer sentiment improves. The aging housing stock will also drive remodel and repairs, combined with other favorable trends like millennial household formation aging in place and persistent remote work. All of these factors continue to make us bullish on the mid to long-term outlook for our industry.

    展望未來,令人鼓舞的是,居家修繕專案通常是延後而非取消。此外,居家修繕支出占房屋淨值的比例低於歷史平均,隨著消費者信心改善,這是中期需求的正向指標。老舊住宅存量也將帶動翻修與修繕,再加上其他有利趨勢,例如千禧世代家庭形成、在地安老(aging in place)以及遠距工作持續存在。上述因素都使我們對本產業中長期展望保持樂觀。

  • In closing, we remain a customer-centric company focused on our daily execution while also ensuring we continue to make the right investments to take share in any macro environment. Our total home strategy is resonating with our Pro and DIY customers alike, and we are confident in our ability to deliver in the short and long term. As I'm out visiting stores, each week I continue to be impressed by our hard-working frontline associates, and I'd like to thank each of them for their commitment to Lowe's and their communities.

    最後,我們仍是一家以客戶為中心的公司,專注於每日執行,同時確保持續進行正確的投資,以在任何總體環境下提升市占。我們的 Total Home 策略同樣獲得 Pro 與 DIY 客戶的共鳴,我們對於短期與長期的交付能力充滿信心。我每週走訪門市時,持續對我們勤奮的一線同仁印象深刻,也想感謝每一位同仁對 Lowe's 及其社區的投入與承諾。

  • And with that, I will turn the call over to Bill.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給 Bill。

  • William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

    William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

  • Thanks, Marvin, and good morning, everyone. Our second quarter comparable sales were down 1.6%, slightly above expectations. We successfully recovered $300 million of delayed seasonal sales from Q1 due to the late start to spring, $50 million more than anticipated. We saw growth in rough plumbing, building materials, paint, seasonal and outdoor living, lawn and garden and hardware as we captured these spring sales and continue to see solid broad-based Pro demand. These factors partly offset 160 basis points of lumber deflation as well as continued pressure on big-ticket DIY discretionary demand that Marvin mentioned earlier. In Hardlines, we drove broad-based sales growth driven by our stronger-than-expected spring recovery.

    謝謝你,Marvin,各位早安。我們第二季同店銷售下滑 1.6%,略優於預期。由於春季較晚開始,我們成功回收第一季遞延的季節性銷售 3 億美元,比原先預期多 5,000 萬美元。隨著我們掌握這波春季銷售並持續看到 Pro 需求穩健且廣泛,我們在粗配管、建材、油漆、季節性與戶外生活、草坪與園藝以及五金等品類皆見成長。這些因素部分抵銷了木材價格通縮帶來的 160 個基點影響,以及 Marvin 先前提到的高單價 DIY 可選性需求持續承壓。在 Hardlines(硬線品類)方面,我們受惠於優於預期的春季回升,帶動廣泛的銷售成長。

  • Lawn and garden was a standout category achieved in partnership with our live good vendors who helped us effectively respond to changing weather patterns and stretch spring into the summer months. We saw an increase in smaller instant gratification projects that improve outdoor spaces at an affordable price, like landscaping projects and pre-potted plants. Seasonal and outdoor living also benefited from the weather recovery where we saw momentum in outdoor power equipment, specifically in riders with the strength of our exciting products from John Deere and Aaron's, along with the battery-powered equipment from the strength of EGO, Cobalt and Craftsman. And we are pleased with our strong seasonal sell-through putting us in a better inventory position than last year as we move into the second half. Hardware was another top-performing category this quarter as our associates drove attachments alongside the higher lumber units and leaned into fastening with key brands like SPAX, GRK, Power Pro One and FastenMaster.

    草坪與園藝是本季表現突出的品類,這得益於我們與「Live Good」供應商夥伴的合作,協助我們有效因應天氣型態變化,並將春季銷售動能延伸至夏季月份。我們看到更多小型、即時滿足的專案需求增加,這些專案能以可負擔的價格改善戶外空間,例如景觀美化工程與預先盆栽好的植物。季節性商品與戶外生活也受惠於天氣回穩,我們在戶外動力設備上看到動能,尤其是乘坐式割草機(riders),這反映出我們與 John Deere 與 Aaron's 合作推出的令人振奮產品所帶來的強勁表現,同時也受惠於 EGO、Cobalt 與 Craftsman 等品牌在電池驅動設備上的優勢。我們也對強勁的季節性銷售去化(sell-through)感到滿意,讓我們在進入下半年時的庫存狀況優於去年。五金(Hardware)也是本季另一個表現最佳的品類,我們的門市同仁在木材單位銷量提升的同時帶動配件(attachments)銷售,並加強推動緊固件(fastening),主打 SPAX、GRK、Power Pro One 與 FastenMaster 等關鍵品牌。

  • In tools, we started the rollout of Klein Tools, the #1 tool brand for electricians and HVAC professionals. We are excited about the launch of this brand, which is returning to Lowe's after nearly 15 years. As part of this launch, we will offer the largest assortment of Klein Tools anywhere in the home improvement retail channel, featuring hand tools, storage, safety and electrical products in-store and online, positioning us as the go-to retailer for these brand loyal customers.

    在工具方面,我們開始導入 Klein Tools 的上架推廣,該品牌是電工與 HVAC 專業人士的第一大工具品牌。我們對這個品牌的上市感到非常興奮,因為 Klein Tools 在相隔近 15 年後重返 Lowe's。作為此次上市的一部分,我們將在居家修繕零售通路中提供最齊全的 Klein Tools 商品組合,涵蓋手工具、收納、安全與電氣產品,並同步於門市與線上販售,讓我們成為這些品牌忠誠客群的首選零售商。

  • Within home decor, paint delivered the strongest comp performance this quarter as we gained traction with the Pros who paint. These Pros are increasingly taking advantage of our MVP's paint rewards program, paint job site delivery and our new Spec Right paint designed specifically for Pros.

    在家居裝飾(home decor)方面,本季油漆(paint)交出最強的同店表現(comp performance),因為我們在「會做油漆工程的專業客群(Pros who paint)」上取得進展。這些專業客群愈來愈多地使用我們 MVP 的油漆獎勵計畫、油漆工地配送服務,以及我們全新、專為專業人士設計的 Spec Right 油漆。

  • Turning to appliances. We continue to outperform the market. We've seen a return to pre-pandemic levels of vendor-funded promotions that are pressuring average tickets across the industry. But I'm excited about the traction that we're gaining as the leading appliance retailer in the U.S. reflected in our unit sales growth, market share gains and the momentum with our Pro customers once again this quarter. One encouraging trend was the increase in bundled appliance purchases. This was fueled by focused Red Vest associate selling, auto applied supplier rebates, faster fulfillment through our market delivery model and our improved online customer experience.

    接著談家電(appliances)。我們持續跑贏市場。我們看到供應商補貼的促銷活動回到疫情前水準,這正在對全產業的平均客單價(average tickets)造成壓力。但我對我們作為美國領先家電零售商所取得的進展感到振奮,這反映在我們的單位銷量成長、市占率提升,以及本季再次在專業客群(Pro customers)上的動能。其中一個令人鼓舞的趨勢是「組合式家電」購買增加。這主要由幾項因素帶動:Red Vest 門市同仁更聚焦的銷售推動、供應商回饋(rebates)自動套用、透過我們的市場配送模式(market delivery model)加速履約,以及我們改善後的線上客戶體驗。

  • Now shifting gears to building products. We continue to see strength in key Pro categories, helping offset the pressure from year-over-year lumber deflation. While lumber deflation pressured our top line by 160 basis points and our Pro comps by 315 basis points, the category once again delivered the highest unit comp in the company this quarter, reflecting strong Pro demand. Our continued growth in building materials and rough plumbing is another positive indicator of the resilience of the small to midsized Pros supported by the healthy backlogs Marvin mentioned earlier.

    現在轉到建材(building products)。我們在關鍵的專業客群(Pro)品類上持續展現強勁表現,有助於抵銷木材價格年對年下跌(lumber deflation)帶來的壓力。雖然木材通縮使我們的營收(top line)承壓 160 個基點,並使 Pro 同店(Pro comps)承壓 315 個基點,但該品類本季再次繳出公司內最高的單位同店成長(highest unit comp),反映出強勁的 Pro 需求。我們在建築材料與粗配管(rough plumbing)上的持續成長,也是小型至中型 Pro 具韌性的另一項正面指標,並受到 Marvin 先前提到的健康在手訂單(backlogs)所支撐。

  • In rough plumbing, we expanded our assortment of PEX products and added our first battery-powered Kobalt Drain Auger. This is one of several new Kobalt launches this year as we celebrate this private brand's 25th anniversary. Our private brands are spec'd out and quality tested to ensure that they are equal to or better quality than comparable national brands and we continue to see our customers respond to their great quality and value. Our increasing private brand penetration is nicely balanced with a strong lineup of trusted national brands like Bosch, DEWALT, Rubbermaid and Scotts.

    在粗配管(rough plumbing)方面,我們擴充了 PEX 產品的品項,並新增了我們第一款電池驅動的 Kobalt 管道疏通機(Drain Auger)。這是 Kobalt 今年多項新品上市之一,我們也正值慶祝這個自有品牌(private brand)25 週年。我們的自有品牌在規格制定與品質測試上,確保其品質可與同級全國性品牌相當或更佳,而我們也持續看到顧客對其優異品質與價值的正向回應。我們自有品牌滲透率的提升,也與 Bosch、DEWALT、Rubbermaid 與 Scotts 等值得信賴的全國性品牌強大陣容取得良好平衡。

  • Shifting to localization. We completed our rural expansion to roughly 300 stores ahead of schedule this quarter. This includes scaling our store within a store concept with Petco designed to provide a dedicated space for all things pet. While it's still early, we're encouraged to see an increasing basket size in these stores and customers are saying that they appreciate the convenience and the ability to reduce the number of stops they need to make. As Marvin mentioned, our work to optimize our rural stores is one piece of our broader localization strategy, designed to drive market share gains, increased productivity and margins. Another highlight this quarter is the growth we've driven online as we continue to improve the digital shopping experience and increase conversion our launch of same-day delivery nationwide on lowes.com, and our mobile app is resonating well with our customers.

    接著談在地化(localization)。本季我們提前完成將鄉村市場(rural)擴展至約 300 家門市的計畫。這包括擴大我們與 Petco 合作的「店中店(store within a store)」概念,打造專屬空間提供各類寵物相關商品。雖然仍在早期階段,但我們很受鼓舞地看到這些門市的每籃(basket size)金額持續增加,顧客也表示他們很重視便利性,以及能減少需要跑的店數。正如 Marvin 所提到,我們優化鄉村門市的工作,是更廣泛在地化策略的一部分,旨在推動市占提升、提高生產力與改善毛利。本季另一個亮點是我們在線上所帶動的成長:我們持續改善數位購物體驗並提升轉換率;我們在 lowes.com 推出全美同日送達(same-day delivery),以及我們的行動 App,都獲得顧客良好回響。

  • We also introduced a new digital will this fit capability that helps customers determine if a refrigerator will fit into their space and a refined search experience with better recommendations, filters and featured categories. And our Halloween and holiday sets are already available online, positioning us nicely for customers who want to get a jump start on decorating. We are also encouraged to see better-than-expected performance for our Lowe's One Roof media network, which is driving increased traffic to Lowes.com and generating results that are exceeding the industry average for our suppliers. Our media network is one of many merchandising PPI initiatives underway at Lowe's. The team is constantly working with our suppliers to find ways to take cost out as commodity prices and transportation costs have come down, and we continue to enhance our technology and processes to optimize pricing. We have also expanded our merchandising services team, or MST, to over 30,000 associates across our stores and garden centers, which frees up our Red Vest associates to spend more time serving customers. New this year, we are adding MST assistant store managers. This role will be focused on providing dedicated store leadership for the critical work that this team does. Through their improved service, the team is squarely centered on driving sales per square foot productivity in our stores while creating a better shopping experience for our customers.

    我們也推出新的數位「是否適配(will this fit)」功能,協助顧客判斷冰箱是否能放入其空間;並優化搜尋體驗,提供更好的推薦、篩選與精選品類。同時,我們的萬聖節與節慶佈置商品已可在線上購買,讓想提早開始佈置的顧客有更好的選擇。我們也很受鼓舞地看到 Lowe's One Roof 媒體聯播網(media network)的表現優於預期,正為 Lowes.com 帶來更多流量,並為供應商創造超越產業平均的成效。我們的媒體聯播網是 Lowe's 多項商品(merchandising)PPI 計畫之一。團隊持續與供應商合作,隨著大宗商品價格與運輸成本下降,尋找降低成本的方法;同時我們也持續強化技術與流程以最佳化定價。我們也將商品陳列服務團隊(merchandising services team,MST)擴編至全門市與園藝中心超過 30,000 名同仁,讓 Red Vest 門市同仁能投入更多時間服務顧客。今年新增的措施是增設 MST 助理店經理(assistant store managers)。此職務將專注於為該團隊的關鍵工作提供專屬的門市領導。透過更好的服務,團隊將明確聚焦於提升門市每平方英尺銷售(sales per square foot)生產力,同時為顧客創造更佳的購物體驗。

  • As I close, I'd like to once again extend my appreciation to our vendors and merchants for their hard work and partnership. Thank you, and I'll now turn the call over to Joe.

    在結語之前,我想再次向我們的供應商與商品團隊(merchants)表達感謝,感謝你們的辛勤付出與合作夥伴關係。謝謝,接下來我把電話會議交給 Joe。

  • Joseph Michael McFarland - EVP of Stores

    Joseph Michael McFarland - EVP of Stores

  • All right. Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I'm really pleased to begin by announcing that we are awarding over $100 million in bonuses for our frontline hourly associates in recognition of their hard work and dedication during the second quarter. Our investments in our associates are paying off as we continue to elevate the customer experience with a 200 basis point improvement in both our DIY and Pro customer service scores this quarter as compared to last year, and we are seeing strong staffing levels and improved associate engagement as we continue to invest in associate wages and ongoing development through Lowe's University.

    好的。謝謝你,Bill,各位早安。我很高興先宣布,我們將發放超過 1 億美元的獎金給第一線計時制門市同仁(frontline hourly associates),以表彰他們在第二季的辛勤工作與投入。我們對同仁的投資正在產生回報:相較去年,本季我們 DIY 與 Pro 顧客服務評分(customer service scores)均提升 200 個基點;同時,隨著我們持續投資於同仁薪資與透過 Lowe's University 進行的持續培訓與發展,我們也看到人力配置維持強勁水準,且同仁投入度(associate engagement)有所提升。

  • As Marvin mentioned, our online comp sales grew 6.9% in the quarter, and roughly half of those orders are picked up in a store. We continue to unlock productivity through one of our many PPI initiatives by reducing the time to pick these orders by approximately 70% as our associates leverage our omni-channel investments, which include mobile devices and order picking carts with mobile printers to streamline the process. And we've enhanced our workforce management tools to better align staffing levels with customer demand. These enhancements are allowing our customers to get in, get what they need and get back to their projects faster. Looking ahead, we are further enhancing our BOPIS experience as we transform the front end of our stores. This includes an expanded staging area, a dedicated pickup desk with improved signage and new technology that expedites the process.

    如 Marvin 所提到,本季我們的線上同店銷售(online comp sales)成長 6.9%,其中約一半訂單是在門市取貨。我們透過眾多 PPI 計畫之一持續釋放生產力:在同仁運用我們的全通路(omni-channel)投資後,揀貨時間約縮短 70%。這些投資包括行動裝置,以及配備行動印表機的揀貨推車,以簡化流程。我們也強化了人力管理工具(workforce management tools),讓人力配置能更貼近顧客需求。這些改善讓顧客能更快進店、拿到所需商品並更快回到他們的專案上。展望未來,隨著我們改造門市前場(front end),我們將進一步提升 BOPIS(線上購買、門市取貨)體驗,包括擴大暫存區(staging area)、設置專用取貨櫃台並改善指示標誌,以及導入可加速流程的新技術。

  • Now shifting to Pro. We continue to deliver positive comps this quarter despite lumber deflation. And under the leadership of our new Executive Vice President, Quonta Vance, we will continue to expand our online business tools for Pros that allow them to easily generate quotes and track orders as part of the MVP Pro Rewards program. As we continue to find ways to save Pros time, this month, we launched our newest online tool purchase authorization. Until now, when Pro sent a crew member to the store to pick up an order, the designated buyer would need to call their team from the checkout line to confirm the order and have it authorized by the store. This could be a time-consuming process, taking the Pros time away from their job site and the associate's time away from serving other customers. Now runners can simply scan a QR code that's pre-authorized up to a specified amount and check out without having to wait in line at the Pro desk. This solution addresses a pain point for many Pro customers and our Pro desk associates and leapfrogs the competition. And we're encouraged to see that our suite of online tools is resonated with Pros and adoptions is already exceeding our expectations.

    現在轉到 Pro。儘管木材通縮,我們本季仍持續交出正向同店(positive comps)。在新任執行副總裁(Executive Vice President)Quonta Vance 的領導下,我們將持續擴展面向 Pro 的線上商務工具,讓他們能更容易產生報價並追蹤訂單,作為 MVP Pro Rewards 計畫的一部分。隨著我們持續尋找為 Pro 節省時間的方法,本月我們推出最新的線上工具「採購授權(purchase authorization)」。過去,當 Pro 派工班成員到店取貨時,指定採購人需要在結帳隊伍中致電團隊確認訂單,並由門市完成授權。這可能相當耗時,讓 Pro 離開工地更久,也占用門市同仁服務其他顧客的時間。現在,取貨人員(runners)只要掃描預先授權、且有指定金額上限的 QR code,即可直接結帳,不必在 Pro 櫃台排隊等待。此解決方案解決了許多 Pro 顧客與 Pro 櫃台同仁的痛點,並在競爭上實現超前。我們也很受鼓舞地看到,我們的一整套線上工具已獲得 Pro 的良好回響,採用率(adoptions)已超出我們的預期。

  • Now I'd like to spend a moment discussing how we are managing shrink, which is a big responsibility for any retailer, especially in this environment. As expected, shrink was in line with last year's results despite industry-wide challenges, driven by our proactive customer service, tech-driven solutions, industry-leading asset protection program and our penetration of rural stores. We're developing radio frequency identification or RFID technology embedded in power tools to prevent theft. This solution will be largely invisible to customers, but it makes a tool inoperable until it is scanned and purchased.

    現在我想花點時間談談我們如何管理損耗(shrink)。對任何零售商而言,損耗都是一項重大責任,尤其在目前這樣的環境下。如同預期,儘管全產業面臨挑戰,我們的損耗仍與去年結果一致,這得益於我們主動式的顧客服務、科技驅動的解決方案、業界領先的資產保護計畫,以及我們在鄉村門市的滲透。我們正在開發將無線射頻識別(RFID)技術嵌入電動工具中以防止竊盜。此解決方案對顧客而言大多不可見,但它會讓工具在被掃描並完成購買前無法運作。

  • Turning to PPI or perpetual productivity improvement in store operations, we have a series of exciting initiatives on our road map that will continue to deliver productivity for the company. In addition to the omni-channel enhancements that I mentioned earlier, we also upgraded freight flow process for shipments from our distribution centers into our stores and on to the selling floor. Through improved technology, we now have better visibility into how freight is flowing into our stores.

    接著談到門市營運中的 PPI(perpetual productivity improvement,持續性生產力改善),我們的路線圖上有一系列令人振奮的計畫,將持續為公司帶來生產力。除了我先前提到的全通路強化之外,我們也升級了從配送中心出貨到門市、再到賣場陳列區的貨物流動流程。透過改善的科技,我們現在能更清楚掌握貨物如何流入門市。

  • This enables us to better match staffing levels with the type of inbound freight, getting the product onto the shelves faster. These PPI initiatives, combined with our continued investments in our associates have helped us to control our expenses and improve our customer service scores in a down sales environment.

    這使我們能更好地依據入庫貨物的類型來匹配人力配置,更快把商品上架。這些 PPI 計畫,加上我們持續對員工的投資,幫助我們在銷售下滑的環境中控制費用並提升顧客服務評分。

  • Before I close, I'd like to extend my appreciation to our frontline associates in Kentucky, New York and Vermont, who supported flood relief in their communities and to our teams in Hawaii, who are responding to the devastating wildfires. To support the recovery efforts in Maui, we are donating $1 million to provide food, emergency shelter and relief supplies to those affected and are grateful for our frontline associates for going above and beyond to help those on the island with recovery and cleanup.

    在我結束之前,我想向我們在肯塔基州、紐約州與佛蒙特州的第一線同仁致上謝意,他們在社區中支援洪災救援;也感謝我們在夏威夷的團隊,正回應毀滅性的野火。為支持茂宜島(Maui)的復原工作,我們捐贈 100 萬美元,用於提供食物、緊急庇護與救援物資給受影響的人們;同時也感謝我們的第一線同仁超越職責,協助島上居民進行復原與清理。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Brandon.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Brandon。

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Joe. Let me begin with our Q2 results. We generated diluted earnings per share of $4.56. Q2 sales were $25 billion. As a reminder, prior year sales included $1.7 billion generated in our Canadian retail business. Results also reflect a $335 million sales headwind and due to the shift in our fiscal calendar as we cycle over a 53-week year. As Marvin mentioned, comparable sales were down 1.6%, which includes approximately 160 basis points of lumber deflation. This pressure was partly offset by a 125 basis point benefit or $300 million of seasonal sales delayed from Q1 due to a late start to spring. Although the calendar shift pressured total sales growth in Q2, it had no impact on comparable sales as comps are calculated based on weeks 15 to 27 in fiscal 2022. Comparable average ticket was up 0.3% to prior year. Ticket increases in the majority of our merchandise categories were offset by lumber deflation and more normalized appliance promotions. Comp transactions declined 1.9% driven by continued pressure in DIY discretionary purchases, partly offset by our seasonal recovery. Our monthly comps were down 1.2% in May, 1.6% in June and 2% in July as the seasonal recovery was concentrated in the first half of the quarter. Gross margin was 33.7% of sales in the second quarter, up 42 basis points from last year. Gross margin benefited from our ongoing PPI initiatives, favorable product mix and lower transportation costs. These benefits were somewhat offset by costs associated with the expansion of our supply chain network and as expected, shrink was in line with prior year.

    謝謝你,Joe。我先從我們第二季(Q2)的結果開始。我們的稀釋後每股盈餘為 4.56 美元。Q2 銷售額為 250 億美元。提醒一下,去年同期的銷售額包含我們加拿大零售業務貢獻的 17 億美元。結果也反映了 3.35 億美元的銷售逆風,原因是我們在跨越 53 週年度時的會計年度日曆移轉。如 Marvin 所提,可比銷售下滑 1.6%,其中約包含木材通縮 160 個基點的影響。這項壓力部分被季節性銷售的 125 個基點利多(約 3 億美元)所抵銷;該季節性銷售因春季來得較晚而從 Q1 延後至 Q2。雖然日曆移轉壓抑了 Q2 的總銷售成長,但對可比銷售沒有影響,因為可比是以 2022 會計年度第 15 週至第 27 週為基礎計算。可比平均客單價較去年上升 0.3%。多數商品類別的客單價提升,被木材通縮與更正常化的家電促銷所抵銷。可比交易筆數下滑 1.9%,主要受 DIY(自己動手做)非必需性購買持續承壓所致,部分被季節性復甦所抵銷。我們的月度可比在 5 月下滑 1.2%、6 月下滑 1.6%、7 月下滑 2%,因季節性復甦主要集中在本季前半段。第二季毛利率為銷售額的 33.7%,較去年上升 42 個基點。毛利率受惠於我們持續的 PPI 計畫、有利的產品組合以及較低的運輸成本。這些利多部分被供應鏈網路擴張相關成本所抵銷;且如預期,損耗與去年持平。

  • SG&A of 16.4% of sales delevered 16 basis points, largely due to lower sales related to the shift in our fiscal calendar. Please note that it also includes the benefit of a one-time legal settlement. We continue to tightly manage expenses, adjusting spend appropriately to align with demand, all while still improving our customer service. Also, as you heard from Marvin, Bill and Joe, we are pleased with the ongoing momentum we are experiencing across our portfolio of PPI initiatives, which continue to create significant value for the organization and helped offset the impact from lower sales.

    SG&A(銷售、一般及行政費用)占銷售額比率為 16.4%,負槓桿 16 個基點,主要因會計年度日曆移轉導致銷售較低。請注意,其中也包含一次性法律和解的利益。我們持續嚴格管理費用,依需求適度調整支出,同時仍在改善顧客服務。並且如同你從 Marvin、Bill 與 Joe 那裡聽到的,我們對於 PPI 計畫組合所展現的持續動能感到滿意;這些計畫持續為組織創造顯著價值,並有助於抵銷銷售下滑的影響。

  • Operating margin rate of 15.6% of sales levered 18 basis points, consistent with the expectations we outlined on our last call. The effective tax rate was 24.6%, in line with the prior year. Inventory ended the quarter at $17.4 billion, $1.9 billion lower than the prior year quarter. U.S. inventory units were down 3% compared to last year as we continue to manage replenishment in line with sales trends.

    營業利益率為銷售額的 15.6%,正槓桿 18 個基點,符合我們在上次電話會議中所說明的預期。有效稅率為 24.6%,與去年一致。季末庫存為 174 億美元,較去年同期低 19 億美元。美國庫存件數較去年下降 3%,我們持續依銷售趨勢管理補貨。

  • Now let me turn to capital allocation. In Q2, we generated $3.5 billion in free cash flow and returned $2.8 billion to our shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. During the quarter, we repurchased 10.1 million shares for $2.2 billion. In addition, we paid $624 million in dividends at $1.05 per share, and we announced a 5% increase to $1.10 per share for the dividend paid on August 9. Capital expenditures totaled $385 million as we continue to focus on high-return projects that support our growth objectives.

    接著談資本配置。Q2 我們產生 35 億美元自由現金流,並透過股利與庫藏股回購的組合,向股東回饋 28 億美元。本季我們以 22 億美元回購 1,010 萬股。此外,我們以每股 1.05 美元發放 6.24 億美元股利,並宣布將 8 月 9 日發放的股利提高 5% 至每股 1.10 美元。資本支出合計 3.85 億美元,我們持續聚焦於支持成長目標的高報酬專案。

  • Our balance sheet remains healthy, adjusted debt-to-EBITDAR stands at 2.69x as we move towards our stated target of 2.75x in line with our BBB+ credit rating. Additionally, we delivered return on invested capital of 27.8%, inclusive of a 750 basis point impact related to transaction costs associated with the sale of our Canadian retail business and the discrete gain we reported in Q1.

    我們的資產負債表仍然健康。調整後負債對 EBITDA R(EBITDAR)比率為 2.69 倍,我們正朝著所宣示、與 BBB+ 信用評等一致的 2.75 倍目標邁進。此外,我們的投入資本報酬率(ROIC)為 27.8%,其中包含與出售加拿大零售業務相關的交易成本,以及我們在 Q1 報告的一次性收益所帶來的 750 個基點影響。

  • Now turning to our 2023 financial outlook. As Marvin mentioned, we continue to expect our relevant market to decline mid-single digits this year and to outperform the market by 100 to 200 basis points. As such, this morning, we reaffirmed our full year 2023 financial outlook. We continue to expect 2023 sales in a range of $87 billion to $89 billion for the year, representing comparable sales of down 2% to down 4%. This includes a 150 basis point impact from lumber deflation for the full year. This outlook reflects continued strength in Pro and online, offset by ongoing pressure from DIY discretionary purchases.

    接著談 2023 年財務展望。如 Marvin 所提,我們仍預期今年相關市場將下滑中個位數百分比,且我們將優於市場 100 至 200 個基點。因此,今天早上我們重申 2023 全年財務展望。我們仍預期 2023 年全年銷售額介於 870 億至 890 億美元,對應可比銷售下滑 2% 至下滑 4%。其中包含全年木材通縮 150 個基點的影響。此展望反映 Pro(專業客群)與線上業務的持續強勁,但被 DIY 非必需性購買的持續壓力所抵銷。

  • Specific to our Q3 expectations, we will be cycling over the toughest comparison of the year as we delivered plus 3% comparable sales in the U.S. last year. Given these difficult comps, we are expecting Q3 sales towards the lower end of our full year guide. We continue to expect full year adjusted operating margin in a range of 13.4% to 13.6%, with disciplined expense management and ongoing PPI initiatives, partly offsetting the impact of lower sales volumes. And we are reaffirming our outlook for adjusted diluted earnings per share of $13.20 to $13.60. As a reminder, our full year outlook for operating margin and diluted EPS excludes adjustments associated with the sale of our Canadian retail business. And finally, we continue to expect capital expenditures of up to $2 billion this year.

    就 Q3 的預期而言,我們將面臨全年最艱難的比較基期,因為去年我們在美國的可比銷售成長超過 3%。在這些艱難的可比之下,我們預期 Q3 銷售將落在全年指引區間的較低端。我們仍預期全年調整後營業利益率介於 13.4% 至 13.6%;在嚴謹的費用管理與持續的 PPI 計畫下,將部分抵銷較低銷售量的影響。我們也重申調整後稀釋每股盈餘為 13.20 至 13.60 美元。提醒一下,我們對營業利益率與稀釋 EPS 的全年展望,排除與出售加拿大零售業務相關的調整項目。最後,我們仍預期今年資本支出最高可達 20 億美元。

  • In closing, I remain confident that the investments we are making in our Total Home strategy are positioning us to grow our market share regardless of the macro environment while continuing to deliver meaningful long-term shareholder value.

    總結來說,我仍有信心,我們在「Total Home」策略上的投資,正使我們無論宏觀環境如何都能提升市占,同時持續為股東創造具意義的長期價值。

  • And with that, we will open it up for questions.

    接下來,我們開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.

    (接線員指示)我們的第一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Chris Horvers。

  • Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

  • So first question is on the top line. What drove the difficult comparisons in the third quarter that you're not expecting this year? And then as you think about those bigger ticket DIY discretionary categories, how do you see the rate of change in those businesses? Are we starting to get to a baseline level that we can grow from? Or is that spending pattern still deteriorating?

    第一個問題關於營收端。第三季有哪些因素造成艱難的比較基期,而今年你們不預期會再出現?另外,當你們看待那些較高客單價的 DIY 非必需性品類時,你們如何看待這些業務的變化速度?我們是否開始接近一個可以在其上成長的基準水準?還是這種支出型態仍在惡化?

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Chris, this is Marvin. I'll take the first part, and I'll let Brandon take the second part. Look, when you look at last year, it's 2 different years, 2 different macro environments, 2 different sets of consumer sentiments. 2 different sets of expectations for DIY and Pro customers. I think the key point is that we feel good about the steps we're taking to grow market share regardless of the macro environment, we have a plan to outperform the home improvement market by 100 to 200 basis points, and that's what we're focused on. So I'll let Brandon answer the second part of your question.

    Chris,我是Marvin。我先回答第一部分,第二部分我讓Brandon來回答。你看,回顧去年,其實是兩個不同的年度、兩種不同的總體環境、兩套不同的消費者情緒,以及對DIY與Pro客群兩套不同的預期。我認為關鍵在於:不論總體環境如何,我們對於正在採取的擴大市占措施感到樂觀;我們有一個計畫,要比居家修繕市場高出100到200個基點的表現,而這正是我們聚焦的重點。所以我讓Brandon回答你問題的第二部分。

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Chris, this is Brandon. Let me get into a little detail on Q3 and second half. First, before I do that, let me take care of one quick housekeeping item as it relates to Q2 exit rate. There's some noise that we saw in the comp spreads across Q2 given the calendar shift that we experienced. And after adjusting those spreads to compare to last year Q2, comps are down roughly 1% in July. Also, when we look at July and August, they're traditionally lighter volume weeks until we hit the Labor Day fall seasonal period. So looking ahead at Q3 specifically, we are cycling our toughest comparable of the quarter, plus 3% last year in August, the toughest across that quarter at plus 4. And then your question on sort of puts and takes different from Q2. As we get into Q3, we won't see the same level of seasonal benefit. Going forward, we called out $300 million there that we experienced in Q2. More modest lumber deflationary pressure in Q3, which sized at about 75 basis points and then continuing to expect pressure in the DIY discretionary spend. And then on the flip side, continued growth and momentum from the Pro business as we expect to outpace DIY. So those are -- just to give you some insights as we look at Q2, and how we transition in Q3.

    是的。Chris,我是Brandon。我來稍微深入說明一下第三季(Q3)與下半年。首先,在我開始之前,先處理一個與第二季(Q2)退出率(exit rate)相關的簡單例行事項。我們看到由於日曆位移所造成的影響,Q2各期間的同店(comp)差異有一些雜訊。把這些差異調整後、以便與去年Q2可比,7月同店約下滑1%。另外,從7月與8月來看,在進入勞動節的秋季季節性檔期之前,傳統上都是較淡的量能週。展望Q3本身,我們正面臨本季最艱難的可比基期:去年8月同店成長+3%,而本季最難的是+4%。至於你問到相較Q2有哪些利多利空(puts and takes)。進入Q3後,我們不會看到同樣程度的季節性助益;往後看,我們在Q2提到過約3億美元的助益。Q3木材通縮壓力較溫和,約影響75個基點,並且我們仍預期DIY可選性支出會持續承壓。反過來看,Pro業務仍將延續成長與動能,且我們預期其增速將超過DIY。以上是我們在回顧Q2並銜接到Q3時,提供給你的一些觀察。

  • Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

  • Got it. Makes sense. And then on the gross margin line, I know you had some price cost issues in the first half of this year. As you look ahead, given -- is that behind you? And as you think about how freight is going to start to roll through the inventory? Should gross margin performance improve in the back half relative to the first half?

    了解。很合理。那麼在毛利率這一項,我知道你們今年上半年有一些價格與成本的問題。往前看——那是否已經過去了?以及當運費開始逐步反映到庫存時,相較上半年,下半年毛利率表現是否應該改善?

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, sure, Chris. So gross margin bounced back as we expected. From Q1, we had easier product margin comparables due to prior year timing. The benefits, as you mentioned, the transportation cost relief is now flowing through margin as expected. We also benefited from product mix, and we continue to see great momentum with our PPI benefits across the merchandising portfolio. Those benefits are offset by continued investment in supply chain and the expansion specifically on market delivery. We called out shrink being neutral, as Joe mentioned, continuing to drive tech solutions to manage some of the industry-wide challenges there. And all in, as we look at the full year, we still expect roughly gross margins flat across the year. So puts and takes there, just like Q2, supply chain expansion continued pressure from some of the Pro growth initiatives. And then we expect continued benefits across the back half of the year from private brand penetration, supplier clawbacks, lower transportation costs and initiatives that we're seeing across the pricing portfolio.

    是的,當然,Chris。毛利率如我們預期回升。相較Q1,由於前一年時點因素,我們的產品毛利率可比基期較容易。正如你提到的,運輸成本下降的效益現在也如預期般逐步反映在毛利中。我們也受惠於產品組合,同時我們持續看到PPI效益在整個商品組合(merchandising portfolio)上有很好的動能。這些效益被我們對供應鏈的持續投資,以及特別是在市場配送(market delivery)擴張上的投入所部分抵銷。我們也提到損耗(shrink)為中性,正如Joe所說,我們持續推動科技解決方案,以管理一些全產業共同面臨的挑戰。整體而言,從全年角度來看,我們仍預期全年毛利率大致持平。因此利多利空與Q2類似:供應鏈擴張,以及部分Pro成長計畫帶來的持續壓力。另一方面,我們預期下半年仍會持續受惠於自有品牌滲透率提升、供應商回扣(supplier clawbacks)、較低的運輸成本,以及我們在定價組合(pricing portfolio)上看到的各項措施。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自Morgan Stanley的Simeon Gutman。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • We're at the halfway point of the year. I was hoping to take stock or diagnose the macro housing, Marvin, you mentioned that, and then also the consumer. Curious how it's playing out versus your expectation? It feels status quo, but wanted to hear the puts and takes on both sides.

    我們已經走到年度的中點。我想盤點或診斷一下總體住房市場(macro housing)——Marvin,你剛剛有提到——以及消費者端。想了解實際發展與你們原先預期相比如何?感覺似乎維持現狀,但仍想聽聽兩邊的利多利空。

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes, Simeon. Look, I think you summed it up well. For us, when we look at consumer sentiment, I mean, we know that we're seeing a pullback in DIY discretionary spend. And that's really for us the kind of the overall theme of how we see the second half of the year. I think the good news for us is we remain really bullish on the mid to long-term view of the home improvement market, and we think it's still very healthy. I mean I can just give you the traditional data points that really matter, and we think that they're going to matter not only for home improvement in the mid to long term, but we think this is one of the best retail sectors to be in. You look at home demand, you had 2 million fewer homes than what's available for sale, the age of homes, 90% of homeowners have fixed mortgage rates in an environment where rates, as you know, are going up, and when we look at all the things that we're doing relative to Pro to DIY, we feel really, really comfortable that irrespective of the macro environment for home improvement that we're going to outperform the marketplace by 100 to 200 basis points. And key examples of why we believe that is when we take a brand like Klein tools that we have had absent from Lowe's for almost 15 years, and we can bring back the #1 brand for electrical and HVAC Pros and be the largest home improvement retail outlet for that brand, that gives us a lot of confidence that our strategy is working, and we're going to continue to grow market share across Pro and DIY. But the DIY discretionary pullback on big ticket drives our overall modest concerns about the back half. But even with that, we think we can outperform about 100 to 200 basis points.

    是的,Simeon。你總結得很好。就我們而言,談到消費者情緒,我們知道DIY可選性支出正在回落。對我們來說,這基本上就是我們看待下半年整體走勢的主軸。對我們的好消息是,我們對居家修繕市場的中長期展望仍然非常樂觀,我們認為市場依然非常健康。我可以給你一些傳統且真正重要的數據點,我們認為它們不僅會在中長期持續支撐居家修繕,我們也認為這是最值得投入的零售產業之一。你看住房需求,市場上可售房屋比需求少了200萬戶;房屋屋齡;在利率上升的環境下(如你所知利率正在上升),90%的屋主持有固定利率房貸;再加上我們在Pro相對於DIY所做的各項工作,我們非常、非常有信心:不論居家修繕的總體環境如何,我們都能比市場高出100到200個基點。支持我們這個判斷的關鍵例子之一是:像Klein tools這樣的品牌,過去將近15年在Lowe's缺席,我們能把電工與HVAC專業人士(Pros)的第一品牌重新引進,並成為該品牌最大的居家修繕零售通路,這讓我們對策略奏效、並將持續在Pro與DIY兩端擴大市占充滿信心。不過,DIY在大額商品(big ticket)上的可選性支出回落,確實是我們對下半年整體較為溫和的擔憂來源。但即便如此,我們仍認為可以優於市場約100到200個基點。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • That's helpful. The second question is more on margin, and this is maybe irrespective of what happens to sales, so both on SG&A per foot and even GM, you have the PPI as a good guy and then just in general spending levels. Can you talk about where PPI is? Is it performing better than you thought, and then is there any areas where you in hindsight should be spending more in or less for that matter just as we think about the margin progression going forward?

    很有幫助。第二個問題更偏向毛利與費用率,可能不太取決於銷售怎麼走——包含每平方英尺的SG&A,甚至毛利率(GM)。你們有PPI這個正面因素,另外還有整體支出水準。你能談談PPI目前的狀況嗎?它是否比你們原先想的表現更好?另外,回頭看,有沒有任何領域你們其實應該多花或少花一些,讓我們在思考未來的利潤率走勢時有個方向?

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • So, I'll take the first part, and I'll let Brandon add any additional context. What's interesting is that PPI started in store operations. I mean typically, you think about expense, it always begins in the store because of the amount of payroll we spend how we execute in our 1,700-plus store environment, but then the philosophy started to permeate around the entire company, merchandising, supply chain and across all those functional areas. And so because of that, we built a road map that Brandon and I could look at over a multiyear time frame, and we can understand the tech investments we're making and the expense reduction and the productivity that will be driven based on those investments. In addition to that, I don't want to understate the importance of our rural and remote stores, as I mentioned in my prepared comments and Bill mentioned in his we simply believe as we continue to identify ways to localize this assortment in addition to putting in technology and implementing PPI, we think it's going to give us a disproportionate benefit over the long term in driving operating margin improvement. And again, PPI is a big part of that. Brandon.

    我先回答第一部分,然後讓Brandon補充其他背景。有趣的是,PPI是從門市營運開始的。一般談到費用,你會想到它總是從門市開始,因為在我們1,700多家門市的環境中,我們在薪資(payroll)上的投入以及執行方式占比很大;但接著這個理念開始滲透到整個公司,包括商品(merchandising)、供應鏈,以及所有這些職能領域。因此,我們建立了一個路線圖,讓Brandon和我可以用多年期的時間框架來檢視,並理解我們正在進行的科技投資、費用降低,以及這些投資將帶來的生產力提升。除此之外,我不想低估我們鄉村與偏遠門市的重要性——正如我在事先準備的發言中提到、Bill也提到——我們確實相信,隨著我們持續找出方法在地化(localize)商品組合,再加上導入科技並落實PPI,長期而言將在推動營業利益率改善上帶來不成比例的效益。而且,PPI是其中很重要的一部分。Brandon。

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, sure. Simeon, the good news too, when we look more in the short term around the back half of '23, we actually are expecting PPI to get more momentum in the second half than what we saw in the first half. A couple of really good efforts that are going on with new store tech architecture as we continue to build the modern foundation, enabling new capabilities in the store like omnichannel selling. We're transforming the front end of the stores with improved self-checkout, revamped BOPIS experience.

    是的,當然。Simeon,好消息是,從較短期、聚焦在2023年下半年來看,我們其實預期PPI在下半年的動能會比上半年更強。有幾個很好的專案正在進行:新的門市科技架構,隨著我們持續打造現代化基礎,讓門市能啟用新的能力,例如全通路銷售(omnichannel selling)。我們也正在改造門市前端,包含更好的自助結帳,以及重新設計的BOPIS體驗。

  • And then across the other areas, within merchandising. I mentioned earlier, pricing, private brand expansion and clawback and then also within the supply chain efforts as we continue to improve process and implement automation there. So all in, really pleased with the progress. We have those benefits factored in. They're going to continue to accelerate as we move across the second half of the year, and those are captured in our expectations.

    接著在其他領域、在商品採購(merchandising)方面。我先前提到過,定價、自有品牌擴張與clawback(回收/追討),以及在供應鏈方面的各項努力——我們持續改善流程並在那裡導入自動化。因此整體而言,我們對進展非常滿意。我們已將這些效益納入考量。隨著我們進入下半年,這些效益將持續加速,並已反映在我們的預期之中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Elizabeth Suzuki with Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行(Bank of America)的Elizabeth Suzuki。

  • Elizabeth Lane Suzuki - VP

    Elizabeth Lane Suzuki - VP

  • Just a couple of questions about the assumptions of the guidance. So for the second half, you're assuming at the high end comps down about 1%, but on the low end, down about 5%. So I'm just curious what economic scenarios you're contemplating for both the high end and the low end. And then if trends you're seeing today continue, do you think you would end up on the higher end or on the lower end?

    我有幾個關於財測假設的問題。就下半年而言,你們在高端情境假設同店銷售(comps)下滑約1%,但在低端情境則下滑約5%。我想了解你們分別在高端與低端所考量的經濟情境是什麼?另外,如果你們今天看到的趨勢持續下去,你們覺得最後會落在區間的高端還是低端?

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Liz, this is Brandon. I think as we think about our range for the full year, we believe the range is practical and it reflects a measured approach given the various potential scenarios and outcomes, we still -- as we look at the back half, still significant macro uncertainty, inflation, interest rates, a more cautious consumer especially on the discretionary side. There's also variables such as the student loans and the uncertainty there with the moratorium. So the team continues to be focused on executing the Total Home strategy. We believe Home improvement is going to be down mid-single digits, and we'll outpace that 100 to 200 basis points. We expect second half the softness with DIY discretionary to continue, and we expect to continue to see momentum from Pro and dotcom. So those -- that's what's reflected overall in our second half.

    是的,Liz,我是Brandon。我想,當我們思考全年區間時,我們認為這個區間是務實的,並且在各種可能情境與結果下,反映了審慎衡量的作法。我們在看下半年時,宏觀面仍有顯著不確定性:通膨、利率、消費者更趨保守,尤其是在非必需(discretionary)支出方面。此外,還有像學生貸款以及暫緩(moratorium)政策的不確定性等變數。因此團隊仍專注於執行Total Home策略。我們認為居家修繕(Home improvement)市場將下滑中個位數百分比,而我們將超越市場100到200個基點。我們預期下半年DIY非必需品類的疲弱將持續,同時也預期Pro與dotcom將持續帶來動能。以上就是我們下半年整體假設所反映的內容。

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • So Liz, this is Marvin. And this is a point I want to continue to reinforce. I mean, obviously, we're looking at the data that we have available, and we're looking at historical trends and how that data correlates to historical trends. But what we're saying is we're going to outperform the market by 100 to 200 basis points. So if we're being too pessimistic in the second half, that's great. because we're going to outperform that by 100 to 200 basis points. And so for us, we're really focused on controlling what we control, executing our Total Home strategy and just maintaining our organizational alignment and agility around whatever the macro throws our way. But we're just really confident as a team and the company that we have the agility to make sure that we continue to take market share irrespective of what the home improvement environment will be in the second half of the year.

    Liz,我是Marvin。我想持續強調這一點。很明顯地,我們會看手上可得的數據,也會看歷史趨勢,以及這些數據與歷史趨勢的關聯。但我們所說的是:我們將比市場表現好100到200個基點。所以如果我們對下半年過於悲觀,那反而是好事,因為我們仍會比那個市場表現好100到200個基點。對我們而言,我們真正專注的是把可控的事情做好,執行我們的Total Home策略,並維持組織在面對任何宏觀變化時的對齊與敏捷性。但我們對團隊與公司非常有信心,我們具備敏捷性,能確保不論下半年居家修繕環境如何,我們都能持續取得市占。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Zach Fadem with Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行(Wells Fargo)的Zach Fadem。

  • Zachary Robert Fadem - Senior Analyst

    Zachary Robert Fadem - Senior Analyst

  • So your average ticket slipped back slightly positive. We know lumber played a role, but considering this line is still 30% above 2019. Can you talk us through the moving parts here in a little more detail, and if you think it's fair to say that the average ticket has normalized or if there's still risk that you revert back closer to those '19 levels?

    你們的平均客單價(average ticket)回落到小幅正成長。我們知道木材(lumber)有影響,但考量這個指標仍比2019年高出30%。你們能否更詳細說明其中的變動因素?以及你們是否認為可以說平均客單價已經正常化,或仍有風險回落、更接近2019年的水準?

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Zach, this is Brandon. Let me take sort of the ticket transaction narrative here. So on the ticket side, as we look at inflation, the benefits we expect to continue to normalize as we cycle a number of the price increases from 2022. As we look at new cost increases that are currently in our pipeline or inbound from our suppliers, that's effectively minimal at this point. There is some positive improvement in the average ticket and the expansion there that's not necessarily inflation driven as we continue to see healthy growth from our Pro customers and Pro penetration.

    Zach,我是Brandon。我先從客單價與交易量的敘事來談。就客單價而言,當我們看通膨時,我們預期相關效益會持續正常化,因為我們正在對比(cycle)2022年的多次漲價。再看目前在我們管線中、或由供應商即將導入的新成本上漲,現階段基本上很有限。平均客單價與其擴張也有一些正向改善,這不一定是通膨驅動的,因為我們持續看到Pro客戶與Pro滲透率帶來的健康成長。

  • But punchline as we look across the second half, we're not anticipating meaningful deflationary pressure. We're going to see year-over-year lumber pricing is going to be much more normal across the second half, Bill mentioned, we're going to begin to cycle more normal appliance pricing, specifically as we get into Q4 and then the ongoing expectation with DIY discretionary is going to continue to put some pressure on ticket. So taking all that into account, our outlook assumes more pressure overall on transactions, and we look at ticket and expect that to really hold over the back half of the year.

    但重點是,當我們看下半年時,我們不預期會有顯著的通縮壓力。正如Bill提到的,下半年木材價格的年對年變動將會更趨正常;我們也將開始對比更正常的家電定價,特別是進入第四季(Q4)時;此外,DIY非必需品類的持續疲弱,仍會對客單價造成一些壓力。綜合以上,我們的展望假設交易量整體承壓較大,而在客單價方面,我們預期下半年大致能維持住。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • Got it. And just over the past 2 years, your cost controls and operating margins have been able to show really nice progress even on a negative comp. And considering all the PPI commentary and host of structural changes, can you talk through what kind of margin progression we should anticipate as comps slip back to positive eventually? And if you think the expansion today could, in any way, preclude more meaningful expansion and recovery.

    了解。再來,過去兩年即使同店為負,你們的成本控管與營業利益率仍展現相當不錯的進展。考量你們對PPI的評論以及一系列結構性變革,你們能否談談當同店最終回到正成長時,我們應該預期怎樣的利潤率進展?以及你們是否認為目前的擴張,可能在某種程度上排擠(preclude)未來更顯著的擴張與復甦空間?

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Zach, this is Brandon. I think, look, right now, we're really focused on delivering our expectations for '23. We've laid that out in the guidance. I'll reference back just as we your question around slipping positive comp. We laid out various scenarios back in December. We still, as we sit here today, confident in our path to continue to expand comps, top line through deployment of our total home strategy. We feel like we have a nice path going forward to expand operating margins. We've talked already at length around where we are from a perpetual productivity initiative standpoint, we're going to continue to make progress there. I'm confident, again, that we have the road map in front of us and all those building blocks are in place when we look beyond 2023.

    是的,Zach,我是Brandon。我想說,現階段我們非常專注於達成我們對2023年的預期,我們已在財測中說明。我也回到你提到同店轉正的問題:我們在去年12月提出了各種情境。即便到今天,我們仍對透過Total Home策略的部署,持續擴大同店與營收(top line)的路徑充滿信心。我們也認為未來有一條很好的路徑可以擴大營業利益率。我們先前也已就我們在perpetual productivity initiative(持續性生產力提升計畫)方面的進展做了充分說明,我們會持續在那裡推進。我再次有信心,當我們把視野放到2023年之後,我們面前已有清楚的路線圖,而且所有這些基礎建設(building blocks)都已到位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Scott Ciccarelli with Truist Securities.

    下一個問題來自Truist Securities的Scott Ciccarelli。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • Can you please talk about any regional differences you're seeing both in different parts of the country but also differentiation here between, call it, the rural locations you guys continue to reference as well as heavier urban locations?

    你能否談談你們在不同地區看到的差異——不僅是全國不同區域之間,也包括你們一直提到的鄉村(rural)門市與較多城市(urban)門市之間的差異?

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. So Scott, I'll take the first part. Look, I'd say regional differences, there's nothing material to speak to. I mean we know that housing and home prices ramped up pretty aggressively during the pandemic time frame in a couple of markets. But when we look at the overall geographic spread. I mean there are no real material differences between locals that had dramatically increase in housing costs and some of those costs are starting to moderate because you still have markets around the company country rather where home price is still going up. So we look at it, obviously, because it's one of those key internal macro indicators that we factor into our assessments, but there's nothing material to speak to.

    是的,Scott,我先回答第一部分。我會說,就區域差異而言,沒有什麼重大到值得特別指出的。我們知道在疫情期間,有幾個市場的房市與房價上升得相當快。但當我們看整體地理分布時,並沒有在那些房屋成本大幅上升的地區與其他地區之間看到真正重大的差異;而且其中一些成本也開始趨緩,因為公司在全國各地仍有一些市場的房價還在上升。我們當然會關注,因為這是我們納入評估的關鍵內部宏觀指標之一,但沒有什麼重大到需要特別說明的。

  • Relative to urban and rural. We spent a lot of time talking about the importance of localization. And to say that Lowe's was a company that was not very localized 5 years ago would be an understatement. And as much progress as we have made, I think Bill will tell you that we still are excited because there's still lots of opportunity for us to be even more specific in how we localize from a rural and from an urban standpoint. I'm going to let Bill talk a little bit about our rural initiative and kind of what we're seeing. It's early days, but the early signs are positive. And I'll let him share just some general thoughts around those initiatives and kind of what we hope we'll continue to see.

    至於城市與鄉村,我們花了很多時間談在地化(localization)的重要性。要說Lowe's在5年前不是一家很在地化的公司,那還算是輕描淡寫。即便我們已取得不少進展,我想Bill也會告訴你,我們仍然很興奮,因為不論是鄉村或城市面向,我們在如何更精準在地化方面仍有很大機會。我會讓Bill談談我們的鄉村計畫,以及我們看到的情況。現在還在早期階段,但初步跡象是正面的。我也讓他分享一些對這些計畫的整體想法,以及我們希望持續看到的成果。

  • William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

    William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

  • Yes. Thanks, Marvin. And Scott, as I said in my prepared remarks, we got roughly 300 stores completed in the second quarter. Excited about what we're hearing from our consumers as they're giving us credit for the products that we're putting in there. We've been able to do some stuff around pet with our partnership with Petco, which we're excited about. We've also continued to learn and continue to listen to our customers. And so there's opportunities with different things related to that rural customer, whether that's utility vehicles, livestock feed, apparel, different types of products that they'll use every single day in and around their home. And so we're going to continue to learn. We're going to continue to adjust as we go, as Marvin said, kind of in the early innings of our localization opportunities. And on the urban side, we continue to adjust there as well, making sure that we're right for those urban markets, whether that's the types of products that they need for security and safety, whether that's areas in and around building codes and making sure that we can meet the Pro's needs in those markets, we're going to continue to tweak and adjust as we go forward. So excited about what we're doing on the localization front and what we're doing with rural.

    好的,謝謝你,Marvin。Scott,如同我在事先準備的發言中提到的,我們在第二季大約完成了300家門市。我們對消費者的回饋感到振奮,他們肯定我們在門市導入的商品。我們也透過與Petco的合作,在寵物品類做了一些事情,對此我們很期待。我們也持續學習並持續傾聽客戶。因此,針對鄉村客群相關的不同品項仍有機會,例如多功能/工具型車輛(utility vehicles)、家畜飼料(livestock feed)、服飾,以及他們每天在家中與住家周邊會使用的各類商品。我們會持續學習,並在推進過程中持續調整;如Marvin所說,我們的在地化機會仍在早期階段。而在城市端,我們也會持續調整,確保我們能符合那些城市市場的需求——不論是他們在安全與防護方面需要的商品類型,或是與建築法規相關的領域,並確保我們能滿足那些市場中Pro客戶的需求——我們都會在未來持續微調與調整。因此,我們對在地化以及鄉村端所做的事情感到興奮。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • Bill, just a clarification, if I can. On the rural side, like is it outperforming the urban areas now? Or that's the expectation as you wind up localizing more?

    Bill,我想再釐清一下。在鄉村市場這一端,目前表現是否已經優於都會區?還是說,隨著你們進一步在地化,這是你們的預期?

  • William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

    William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

  • It's performing at what we expected it to perform.

    它的表現符合我們的預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.

    下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Michael Lasser。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • It's not the fairest metric, and there's a lot of noise in it. But if we simply look at Lowe's performance relative to its largest competitor over the last couple of quarters, Lowe's has been outcomping that player. Presumably, this quarter, it's in part due to Pro doing a little bit better online sales doing well, and maybe more seasonal catch-up as a result of leading higher -- harder into that category. So a, is that the right interpretation. And then b, how sustainable do you think that this measure of Lowe's performance is?

    這不算是最公平的衡量指標,而且其中雜訊很多。但如果我們單純看過去幾個季度 Lowe's 相對於其最大競爭對手的表現,Lowe's 一直在勝過對方。推測本季部分原因是 Pro 業務表現稍好、線上銷售表現不錯,以及可能因為更積極投入該品類而帶來更多季節性補回。因此,a,這樣的解讀是否正確?b,你認為這種衡量 Lowe's 表現的方式有多可持續?

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • So Michael, I'll take that. This is Marvin. And I'll just be really honest with you. We spent a lot of time talking about the importance of being customer-centric. We don't pay a ton of attention to what's happening at our competitor because we believe if we take care of the customer, the customer takes care of everything else. So we're going to continue to stay focused on our total home strategy. We think if we do that well, then our results will be sustainable. And that means that we're going to be very localized. It means that we're going to be intentional around the small to medium-sized Pro that we're going to make our 1,700 stores connected to our customers via omni-channel, and we're going to continue to be intentional around what we do to give our associates a great place to work. Those things are most important.

    Michael,我來回答。這是 Marvin。我會很坦白地說:我們花了很多時間在談以客為中心的重要性。我們不會花太多注意力在競爭對手在做什麼,因為我們相信只要把客戶照顧好,客戶就會把其他一切都照顧好。所以我們會持續專注於我們的 Total Home 策略。我們認為只要把這件事做好,我們的成果就會是可持續的。這也意味著我們會非常在地化;意味著我們會有意識地聚焦在小到中型的 Pro 客群;我們會讓 1,700 家門市透過全通路與客戶連結;我們也會持續有意識地去打造讓同仁覺得很棒的工作環境。這些才是最重要的。

  • And I think our results this quarter, although in a difficult market, reflect that our Total Home strategy is working, and we're continuing to invest the appropriate amount of capital to ensure that irrespective of the macro environment, we're not going to slow down on our investments in supply chain IT infrastructure, omni-channel and our Pro initiative. So for us, it's all about taking care of the customer, and that allows us to outperform our closest competitor, then that's just a benefit that we'll be more than willing to accept.

    我認為我們本季的成果,即使在艱難的市場環境下,也反映出我們的 Total Home 策略正在奏效;而且我們持續投入適當的資本,確保不論總體環境如何,我們都不會放慢在供應鏈、IT 基礎建設、全通路以及 Pro 計畫上的投資。所以對我們而言,一切都在於照顧好客戶;如果這讓我們得以優於最接近的競爭對手,那只是我們非常樂於接受的附帶好處。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • Understood. My follow-up question is on your view of the sales environment for the back half, understanding that you're still taking a prudently cautious stance given what's happening with macroeconomic indicators. Now with that being said, are you seeing any signs that those discretionary big-ticket purchases that had been weak, such as patio furniture, grills, other big ticket purchases are starting to stabilize? Or do you have line of sight that they might start to stabilize as you move into next year?

    了解。我接續的問題是關於你們對下半年銷售環境的看法。我理解在總體經濟指標的情況下,你們仍採取審慎保守的立場。話雖如此,你們是否看到先前疲弱的可選擇性大額購買(例如庭院家具、烤爐以及其他大件商品)開始趨於穩定的跡象?或者你們是否有把握,隨著進入明年,它們可能開始穩定?

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Michael, this is Brandon. Just a reminder, again, as we look out at the second half, we're cycling up plus 3% in Q3 of last year and a positive 0.7% in Q4. So that's been factored into our expectations. To your question specifically on DIY discretionary, we definitely saw the smaller ticket discretionary projects that were fueled by lawn and garden. We saw that benefit in Q2 as we get into second half, that seasonal benefit is going to subside. So some of the bigger, I'll call it, interior DIY discretionary areas, I would say, we're seeing very much performance here early on through August, similar performance with what we've seen over the first half. And that baseline performance is essentially what's reflected in our expectations for second half.

    Michael,我是 Brandon。再提醒一下,當我們展望下半年時,我們去年第三季的比較基期是 +3%,第四季是正的 0.7%。這些都已納入我們的預期。就你特別問到的 DIY 可選擇性支出而言,我們確實看到由草坪與園藝帶動的小額可選擇性專案;我們在第二季享受到這個效益。進入下半年後,這個季節性效益會逐步消退。因此,一些較大的、我稱之為室內 DIY 可選擇性品類,我會說我們在 8 月初至今看到的表現,與上半年所見相當類似。而這樣的基礎表現基本上也反映在我們對下半年的預期之中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Eric Bosshard with Cleveland Research.

    下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Eric Bosshard。

  • Eric Bosshard - Co-Founder, CEO, Co-Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Eric Bosshard - Co-Founder, CEO, Co-Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • Two things, if I could. First of all, I guess probably for Bill, as you think about managing inventory and mix and promotions in this environment, how are you trying to position the business? Are you leaning in to try to drive traffic? Are you responding and perhaps a little bit more defensively, -- just how are you trying to position inventory mix and promotions?

    如果可以的話我有兩點。第一點,我想大概是問 Bill:在這樣的環境下,當你們管理庫存、品類組合與促銷時,你們如何定位這門生意?你們是更積極投入以帶動來客數?還是採取較防禦性的應對?——你們究竟如何定位庫存組合與促銷?

  • William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

    William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

  • Yes, Eric, first of all, thanks for the question. We're focused on trying to provide value to the customer every single day. And so that comes through lots of different things, making sure that from the Pro side that we continue to do things like we're doing right now as we roll out Klein tools in our stores, excited about that launch. We think that offers a nice opportunity for us is we'll have the largest assortment of Klein in the home improvement channel. So right now, we've got roughly 150 SKUs in the stores today. We'll have all of our stores set by the end of this week.

    Eric,首先謝謝你的問題。我們專注於每天都為客戶提供價值。這會透過很多不同方式呈現;例如在 Pro 端,我們持續推進像現在這樣的事情——在門市導入 Klein 工具,我們對這次上市很興奮。我們認為這為我們帶來很好的機會,因為我們將在居家修繕通路中提供最齊全的 Klein 品項。目前我們在門市大約有 150 個 SKU。本週結束前,我們會完成所有門市的陳列設定。

  • So that's just one way of being able to provide value to that Pro customer. And then from an inventory side, we came out of Q2 in better position with our seasonal inventories than we did a year ago. So that helps us. It allows us to invest as we go into Labor Day and fall planning and fall harvest, Halloween holiday, those types of things so that we can continue to provide value that way to the consumer with those holiday sets and Halloween sets provide a transition in the stores, as you know, and it gives the customer some excitement. And then we've got a lot of new stuff that we've talked about. We've got Coca-Cola that will finish rolling out in our stores being able to have access to that entire portfolio of product we're excited about. We'll roll out Carhart to 250 stores in Q3. So we're excited about getting that out there for both the DIY and the Pro. And then we'll have some new stuff in that spooky area for Halloween for the Halloween enthusiasts.

    這只是我們能為 Pro 客戶提供價值的一種方式。再從庫存面來看,我們在第二季結束時的季節性庫存狀況比一年前更好。這對我們有幫助,讓我們能在進入勞動節、秋季規劃與秋收季、萬聖節檔期等時點持續投入,藉由這些節慶與萬聖節的陳列組合,持續以這種方式為消費者提供價值;如你所知,這些陳列會在門市帶來轉換,也能讓客戶感到興奮。此外,我們也有很多我們談過的新東西。可口可樂將完成在我們門市的鋪貨,讓我們能取得其完整產品組合,我們對此很期待。我們會在第三季把 Carhartt 推進到 250 家門市。所以我們很期待把它帶給 DIY 與 Pro 客群。然後在萬聖節的「驚悚」品類上,我們也會為萬聖節愛好者帶來一些新品。

  • So all of that try to provide value to our customers in lots of different ways. And then offer them those promotional offers and appliances like you have to provide because over 100,000 appliances break every single day, and we want to make sure that we're relevant out there, and try to manage all of it in a portfolio approach. So we've got a lot of stuff going. We're excited about it, and we think will give us a nice way to position ourselves to drive value for our customers through the back half of the year and into next year.

    總之,我們透過許多不同方式努力為客戶提供價值;同時也提供他們在家電等品類上你必須提供的促銷方案,因為每天都有超過 100,000 台家電故障,我們希望確保我們在市場上具備相關性,並以組合式(portfolio)的方法來管理所有這些事情。所以我們有很多事情在推進,我們對此感到興奮,也認為這能讓我們在今年下半年乃至明年,為客戶創造價值並做好自身定位。

  • Eric Bosshard - Co-Founder, CEO, Co-Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Eric Bosshard - Co-Founder, CEO, Co-Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then second question, if I could. As you -- Brandon did a good job of explaining that you've kind of cycled through the price increases, and there's minimal from here. The math of the past couple of years has been price up more than volume has been down. I'm just curious how you all think about as price no longer goes up, the path for volume turning from a negative to a positive. I'm just curious how you think about that, and what makes that happen and perhaps when?

    好的。第二個問題,如果可以的話。Brandon 已經很清楚地說明你們基本上已經走過了漲價循環,接下來漲價帶來的貢獻很小。過去幾年的數學關係是:價格上升幅度大於銷量下滑幅度。我很好奇,當價格不再上升時,你們如何看待銷量從負轉正的路徑?我想了解你們怎麼思考這件事、它需要什麼條件、以及可能在什麼時候發生?

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Eric, this is Brandon. I think again, focus right now on '23, as I mentioned earlier, we kind of breaking down transactions in ticket. We do expect pressure on transactions as we move across the balance of the year ticket to hold. I do think when we get on the backside of this, I'm not going to put a time frame on it, obviously, as there's a bunch of variables, a lot of uncertainty. It's too early for us to call what 2024 is going to look like. But I do think we are expecting a convergence in a better balance of transactions and ticket probably similar to pre-COVID levels as we start to look ahead across the long term.

    Eric,我是 Brandon。我想再次強調,眼下我們聚焦在 2023 年;如我先前提到的,我們把交易筆數與客單價拆開來看。隨著今年剩餘時間推進,我們確實預期交易筆數會承壓,而客單價則可望維持。我確實認為,當我們走過這段期間之後——我不會給出時間表,因為顯然變數很多、不確定性也很高——現在對我們來說還太早去判斷 2024 年會是什麼樣子。但我確實認為,從長期來看,我們預期交易筆數與客單價之間會趨於收斂,回到更好的平衡,可能會接近 COVID 之前的水準。

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • This is Marvin. The only thing I'll add to that is we still are in the early innings of making what I would call best-in-class business operations in our omni-channel area, in localization and in just the overall technology infrastructure. I've mentioned that we're retiring a 30-year-old operating system. And not only will that make our stores a lot easier to operate from a technology standpoint, and what it does, it gives us incredible agility to build on top of that modern platform for more omni-channel capabilities. There's a lot of things we're doing today, the hard way.

    我是 Marvin。我唯一想補充的是:我們仍處於打造我所稱的「同級最佳」營運能力的早期階段,包含全通路領域、在地化,以及整體技術基礎建設。我提過我們正在汰換一套 30 年的作業系統。這不僅會讓我們的門市在技術層面更容易營運;更重要的是,它讓我們具備極高的敏捷性,能在這個現代化平台之上建構更多全通路能力。我們今天正在做的很多事情,其實都是用比較費力的方式在做。

  • And so I get excited because I can get out of bed every day, and I can see a long list of initiatives that we have yet to get to that's going to drive operating margin improvement drive space productivity and hopefully will drive top line as consumer sentiment continues to improve. So we're confident that we've not even reached a point of peak performance relative to the investment cycle that we have because we've been other places we know what world class looks like, and we know that we're on a journey to get there, but there are still areas of our business: Pro, online, fulfillment capabilities, space productivity that we know that we're still in the early innings. And so that's exciting, and we just have to do the work to make sure that we can achieve the expectations we have.

    因此我感到很振奮,因為我每天都能起床,看到一長串我們尚未著手推進的各項計畫,這些計畫將帶動營業利益率改善、提升賣場空間生產力,並且希望在消費者信心持續改善之際,帶動營收成長。因此我們有信心,相較於我們所處的投資週期,我們甚至還沒有達到峰值表現的階段;因為我們曾在其他地方工作過,知道世界級是什麼樣子,也知道我們正走在通往那裡的旅程上,但我們的業務仍有一些領域:Pro、線上、履約能力、空間生產力,我們知道自己仍處於早期階段。因此這令人興奮,而我們只需要把工作做好,確保能達成我們所設定的期望。

  • And Rob, we have time for one more question.

    Rob,我們還有時間再問一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Final question will be from Steven Zaccone with Citi.

    最後一個問題將由花旗(Citi)的 Steven Zaccone 提問。

  • Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

    Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to circle back to your commentary about the appliance promotions, could you elaborate on that a bit more? It sounds new? What are your expectations for that side of the business in the second half of the year? And then just a follow-up on the promotions question earlier. It seems like the industry has not needed to be promotional. How long do you think this can last if big-ticket discretionary weakness continues?

    我想回到你們對家電促銷的評論,能否再多說一些?聽起來像是新的做法?你們對今年下半年該業務面的預期是什麼?另外再追問一下先前關於促銷的問題。看起來整個產業其實不需要做促銷。如果大型可選消費品的疲弱持續,你們認為這種情況還能維持多久?

  • William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

    William P. Boltz - EVP of Merchandising

  • Yes. So Steve, this is Bill. So just on the appliance side, specifically, what we've seen with appliances is that really, the industry has returned to kind of a more normalized go-to-market promotional offering, similar to what you saw prior to the pandemic. And so this normalization, as I said in my remarks, has put pressure on average ticket and average selling price across the industry. Everybody, I think, is feeling that impact. But essentially, we cycle this as we get into Q4, and we come -- we get into more of an apples-to-apples comparison when we get to Q4, but we're excited about the strength that we've seen with our appliance business. First quarter track line data would indicate that we took share in the first quarter. So we're driving units and trying to make sure that we can meet the needs of our consumers is, like I said, in Eric's question, 100,000 appliances break every single day, we've got to be there for our consumer. But it's not a radical shift to heavy promotions. It's more of a normalized promotion.

    好的。Steve,我是 Bill。就家電這一塊來說,具體而言,我們看到的是家電產業基本上已回到較為正常化的上市(go-to-market)促銷方案,類似於疫情前你所看到的情況。因此,正如我在發言中提到的,這種正常化已對全產業的平均客單價與平均售價造成壓力。我想大家都感受到這個影響。但本質上,當我們進入第四季時就會度過這個比較基期——我們會進入更可比的比較基礎;不過我們對家電業務所展現的強勁表現感到振奮。第一季的追蹤數據顯示,我們在第一季取得了市占。因此我們在推動銷量,並確保能滿足消費者需求;就像我在回答 Eric 的問題時說的,每天都有 100,000 台家電壞掉,我們必須在那裡服務消費者。但這並不是大幅轉向重度促銷,而是更正常化的促銷。

  • Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

    Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then just question on the back half margins for you, Brandon. Given the commentary about same-store sales in the third quarter, is there anything to be mindful of in terms of gross margin or SG&A cadence in the third quarter versus the fourth quarter?

    了解。接著問你一個關於下半年利潤率的問題,Brandon。考量你們對第三季同店銷售的評論,在第三季相較第四季的毛利率或 SG&A(銷售、一般及行政費用)節奏上,有沒有什麼需要特別留意的?

  • Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

    Brandon J. Sink - Executive VP & CFO

  • No. I would say, Steven, still expect 40 to 60 basis points of expansion. The one thing that I would call out. I mentioned we expect the PPI benefits to build over the second half. And then the second thing I'll mention is we are cycling over $400 million of associate discretionary bonuses that were paid out last year that we're not expecting to recur. So those are the big items that I would call out as we move through the second half.

    沒有。我會說,Steven,仍然預期擴張 40 到 60 個基點。我想特別指出一點:我提到我們預期 PPI 的效益會在下半年逐步累積。第二點是,我們正在跨越去年發放、超過 4 億美元的員工(associate)酌情獎金,而我們預期今年不會再發生。因此,這些是我在進入下半年時會特別點出的主要項目。

  • Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

    Marvin R. Ellison - President, CEO & Chairman

  • And Steve, I would be remiss if I didn't just talk a little bit about our performance and shrink and the most difficult retail environment for shrink in my 35 years in this space. I want to let Joe just talk a little bit about the successes that we're seeing and how we hope that continues to support our gross margin forecast for the back half of the year.

    Steve,如果我不稍微談一下我們在表現與損耗(shrink)方面的情況,那就說不過去了;在我 35 年的零售生涯中,這是損耗最艱難的零售環境。我想請 Joe 簡單談談我們看到的成果,以及我們希望這些成果如何持續支撐我們對下半年毛利率的預測。

  • Joseph Michael McFarland - EVP of Stores

    Joseph Michael McFarland - EVP of Stores

  • Thanks, Marvin. And let me give you just a quick shout out to the store operations team and really our asset protection team. I believe they are best in class. And as you look across the actions that we've taken, whether it's in supply chain, whether it's on the front end with our new proprietary self-checkouts, replacing the MCRs, we have a best-in-class awareness platform. That's got a 92% voluntary participation rate. And that we have a line of sight for front-end transformations as we move into next year. The 100% execution of our high-strength program, where we've identified the stores. And so I feel really confident and just a great job by the team.

    謝謝你,Marvin。我也想快速向門市營運團隊,尤其是我們的資產保護團隊致意。我相信他們是同業最佳(best in class)。回顧我們採取的各項行動,不論是在供應鏈端,或是在前端導入我們新的自有(proprietary)自助結帳系統、取代 MCRs,我們都有同業最佳的警覺平台,其自願參與率達 92%。而且,隨著我們邁入明年,我們對前端轉型也有清晰的可視性。我們高強度計畫(high-strength program)已達成 100% 執行,我們已辨識出相關門市。因此我非常有信心,也要稱讚團隊做得非常好。

  • Kate Pearlman - VP of IR

    Kate Pearlman - VP of IR

  • Thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you on our third quarter earnings call in November.

    感謝各位今天加入我們。我們期待在 11 月的第三季財報電話會議上再與各位交流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the Lowe's Second Quarter 2023 earnings call. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。本次 Lowe's 2023 年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以中斷連線。