洛克希德·馬丁 (LMT) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome, everyone, to the Lockheed Martin Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Greg Gardner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎大家參加洛克希德馬丁公司 2021 年第三季度收益結果電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。現在，關於開場白和介紹，我想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Greg Gardner 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, John, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to our third quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Joining me today on the call are James Taiclet, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Mollard, our acting Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。歡迎大家參加我們 2021 年第三季度的收益電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 James Taiclet；以及我們的代理首席財務官 John Mollard。

Statements made in today's call that are not historical fact are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please see today's press release and our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.

在今天的電話會議上發表的非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，是根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款作出的。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異。請參閱今天的新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，了解可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的一些因素的描述。

We have posted charts on our website today that we plan to address during the call to supplement our comments. These charts also include information regarding non-GAAP measures that may be used in today's call. Please access our website at www.lockheedmartin.com and click on the Investor Relations link to view and follow the charts. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jim.

我們今天在我們的網站上發布了圖表，我們計劃在電話會議期間解決這些圖表以補充我們的評論。這些圖表還包括有關可能在今天的電話會議中使用的非 GAAP 措施的信息。請訪問我們的網站 www.lockheedmartin.com 並單擊“投資者關係”鏈接以查看和關注圖表。有了這個，我想把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today on our third quarter 2021 earnings call. In a few moments, John will provide a detailed review of our quarterly results, updated 2021 guidance and trending information for 2022. But first, I will provide a 5-year sales outlook and discuss our plans for accelerating capabilities to our customers and driving per share value to our shareholders over that time horizon.

謝謝，格雷格。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的 2021 年第三季度財報電話會議。稍後，John 將詳細回顧我們的季度業績、更新的 2021 年指導和 2022 年的趨勢信息。但首先，我將提供 5 年的銷售前景，並討論我們為客戶加速能力和推動每個人的計劃在那個時間範圍內為我們的股東分享價值。

Last month, I led our executive leadership team as we completed our annual strategic and financial planning process. Given the scope of changes in our operating environment over the past year, we conducted a more in-depth and extended assessment of our financial forecast. Based on these strategic and financial reviews and the information available to us today, our current expectation is that sales in 2022 will decline slightly from our expected 2021 sales level.

上個月，我帶領我們的執行領導團隊完成了年度戰略和財務規劃流程。鑑於過去一年我們經營環境的變化範圍，我們對我們的財務預測進行了更深入和廣泛的評估。根據這些戰略和財務審查以及我們今天可獲得的信息，我們目前的預期是 2022 年的銷售額將比我們預期的 2021 年銷售額水平略有下降。

We then anticipate sales will increase slightly in 2023 with steadily increasing sales growth through 2026. This sales trajectory reflects a number of factors, including the continuing effects of the ongoing COVID pandemic and extended delivery time lines across our supply chain, moderating growth rates in the U.S. defense budget, shifts in customer priorities driven by recent events such as the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and the renationalization of the AWE program in the U.K. and our recently completed agreement with the F-35 joint program office on a rebaselining of aircraft deliveries under our production program. I'll address this significant agreement a little later in my remarks.

然後，我們預計銷售額將在 2023 年略有增長，到 2026 年銷售額將穩步增長。這一銷售軌跡反映了許多因素，包括持續的 COVID 大流行的持續影響和我們供應鏈中延長的交付時間線，緩和的增長率美國國防預算、受近期事件（例如美軍從阿富汗撤軍和英國 AWE 計劃重新國有化）以及我們最近與 F-35 聯合計劃辦公室就飛機交付基準重新調整達成的協議等事件推動的客戶優先事項的轉變根據我們的生產計劃。我將在稍後的發言中談到這一重要協議。

As with all forward projections, our performance on current programs, our ability to win highly competitive new starts, the size of future defense budgets and the global geopolitical landscape will all influence our ultimate growth rate over the coming 5 years. But as we look ahead, there are 4 primary areas that underpin our longer-term growth forecast. The first of these future growth areas is within our hypersonics portfolio.

與所有前瞻性預測一樣，我們在當前項目中的表現、我們贏得競爭激烈的新起點的能力、未來國防預算的規模和全球地緣政治格局都將影響我們未來 5 年的最終增長率。但展望未來，有 4 個主要領域支持我們的長期增長預測。這些未來增長領域中的第一個是我們的超音速產品組合。

We are currently performing on 6 hypersonic programs across the company and following the successful completion of ongoing testing and evaluation activity, multiple programs are expected to enter production between 2023 and 2026. The second growth area is within our classified activity. 3 of our 4 business areas are engaged in significant classified development programs and pending successful achievement of the objectives within those programs, we expect to begin the transition from development to production again between 23 and 26.

我們目前正在全公司執行 6 個高超音速項目，在成功完成正在進行的測試和評估活動後，多個項目預計將在 2023 年至 2026 年之間投入生產。第二個增長領域是我們的分類活動。我們 4 個業務領域中的 3 個從事重要的機密開發項目，並且在這些項目中成功實現目標之前，我們預計將在 23 到 26 之間再次開始從開發到生產的過渡。

The third area of expected growth lies in our current programs of record. Our portfolio is very well aligned with our customers' mission requirements. And as a result, we have multiple programs from each business area entering growth stages. This includes the CH-53K heavy lift helicopter, F-35 sustainment activity, increased PAC-3 production rates and the modernization and enhancements to the fleet ballistic missile.

預期增長的第三個領域在於我們目前的記錄項目。我們的產品組合非常符合客戶的任務要求。因此，我們有來自每個業務領域的多個項目進入增長階段。這包括 CH-53K 重型直升機、F-35 維持活動、提高的 PAC-3 生產率以及艦隊彈道導彈的現代化和增強。

And finally, we're in competition for several significant new business awards, including the future vertical lift and FARA competitions, the next-generation interceptor program, and the KC-Y Tanker program. These represent meaningful opportunities to accelerate our projected top line growth profile with new long-term projects that are critical to our national defense.

最後，我們正在競爭幾個重要的新商業獎項，包括未來垂直升降機和 FARA 競賽、下一代攔截器項目和 KC-Y 加油機項目。這些代表了有意義的機會，可以通過對我們的國防至關重要的新的長期項目來加速我們預計的收入增長。

Now I'd like to discuss our strategy for driving strong returns for our shareholders in the near term while remaining well positioned for our expected return to growth in 2023. The central tenet of our value creation strategy is using a disciplined and dynamic capital allocation process. We will first reinvest capital into our business to meet our customers' requirements and drive organic growth.

現在，我想討論一下我們在短期內為股東帶來豐厚回報的戰略，同時為我們在 2023 年的預期回報增長保持有利地位。我們價值創造戰略的核心原則是使用有紀律和動態的資本配置流程.我們將首先將資本再投資於我們的業務，以滿足客戶的需求並推動有機增長。

Concurrently, we will continue pursuing actionable inorganic growth opportunities that strengthen our core business. And we will return cash to shareholders through increasing dividend payments and a significantly expanded share repurchase program.

同時，我們將繼續尋求可行的無機增長機會，以加強我們的核心業務。我們將通過增加股息支付和大幅擴大股票回購計劃向股東返還現金。

To drive sustainable organic growth, we will continue making significant investments in our business area. These investments include nearly $2 billion of annual capital expenditures and approximately $1.5 billion in independent research and development spending each year. These investments are being made in our signature platforms and systems to provide our customers with the high-value solutions they're going to need to execute their missions of deterring if necessary, to feeding the pacing threats across all the domains of operations.

為了推動可持續的有機增長，我們將繼續在我們的業務領域進行重大投資。這些投資包括近 20 億美元的年度資本支出和每年約 15 億美元的獨立研發支出。這些投資正在我們的標誌性平台和系統中進行，以便為我們的客戶提供他們將需要的高價值解決方案，以在必要時執行威懾任務，以應對所有運營領域的節奏威脅。

Additionally, we are transforming our internal operations with a model-based engineering and enterprise architecture and we are building digital factories of the future. These investments in state-of-the-art engineering, manufacturing and sustainment tools and techniques will ensure our business areas can continue delivering outstanding performance levels on current programs while also positioning us to prevail in upcoming campaigns.

此外，我們正在通過基於模型的工程和企業架構來轉變我們的內部運營，並且我們正在建設未來的數字工廠。這些對最先進的工程、製造和維護工具和技術的投資將確保我們的業務領域能夠繼續在當前項目中提供出色的績效水平，同時也使我們能夠在即將到來的活動中取得勝利。

After making these significant investments in our business to support our customers and drive organic growth, we expect to have substantial free cash flows available to return to you to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Last month, the Board increased our quarterly dividend by $0.20 or approximately 8% to $2.80 per share and now $11.20 per share annually, providing shareholders, especially our yield investors with strong returns. This action marks the 20th consecutive year that the Board has increased Lockheed Martin's quarterly dividend.

在對我們的業務進行這些重大投資以支持我們的客戶並推動有機增長之後，我們希望有大量的自由現金流可通過股息和股票回購回報給股東。上個月，董事會將季度股息增加 0.20 美元或約 8% 至每股 2.80 美元，現在每年每股 11.20 美元，為股東，尤其是我們的收益投資者提供豐厚的回報。此舉標誌著董事會連續第 20 年增加洛克希德馬丁公司的季度股息。

Along with making an increased quarterly dividend payment, we will also provide additional value to shareholders by returning excess cash to them through a greatly expanded share repurchase program. As discussed in today's press release, we've already repurchased $2 billion of our shares through the first 3 quarters of 2021.

除了增加季度股息支付外，我們還將通過大幅擴大的股票回購計劃向股東返還多餘現金，從而為股東提供額外價值。正如今天的新聞稿中所討論的那樣，我們已經在 2021 年前三個季度回購了 20 億美元的股票。

And last month, on my recommendation, the Board increased our remaining share repurchase authority by $5 billion, bringing our current total share repurchase authority to approximately $6 billion. With our stock trading at the level well below what we calculate as the company's intrinsic value, we have significantly increased our planned share buybacks, and I anticipate that we will repurchase up to $6 billion of our shares over the next 12 to 18 months if conditions warrant.

上個月，根據我的建議，董事會將我們剩餘的股票回購授權增加了 50 億美元，使我們目前的總股票回購授權達到了大約 60 億美元。由於我們的股票交易水平遠低於我們計算的公司內在價值，我們已大大增加計劃的股票回購，我預計如果條件允許，我們將在未來 12 至 18 個月內回購高達 60 億美元的股票保證。

As a final note on shareholder value, we are going to dynamically allocate capital to the highest return opportunities, prioritizing investments that lead to growing free cash flow per share. That's our new metric. We will remain opportunistic in pursuing accretive bolt-on acquisitions, evaluate additional increases to our current share repurchase authorization and continue to reinvest capital into our business to drive long-term growth.

關於股東價值的最後一點說明，我們將動態分配資本給回報率最高的機會，優先考慮導致每股自由現金流增長的投資。這是我們的新指標。我們將繼續投機取巧地進行增值性補強收購，評估當前股票回購授權的額外增加，並繼續將資本再投資到我們的業務中以推動長期增長。

We have the balance sheet flexibility and firepower to pursue multiple avenues of growth while returning significant capital to our shareholders. We built this balance sheet to use it, and we will do so, consistent with our focus on long-term shareholder value creation. Our strong balance sheet provides us with the capability to close on the Aerojet Rocketdyne transaction, provide robust returns to shareholders and continue to invest in our portfolio to support our customers and drive future growth.

我們擁有資產負債表的靈活性和火力，可以尋求多種增長途徑，同時向股東返還大量資本。我們建立這個資產負債表是為了使用它，我們將這樣做，這與我們對長期股東價值創造的關註一致。我們強大的資產負債表使我們能夠完成 Aerojet Rocketdyne 交易，為股東提供豐厚的回報，並繼續投資於我們的投資組合以支持我們的客戶並推動未來增長。

The Aerojet Rocketdyne transaction continues moving through the regulatory approval process and we now anticipate closing in the first quarter of 2022. Before I turn the call over to John, I'd like to highlight the efforts of the entire F-35 organization, including the government's joint program office, our teammates and suppliers, our aeronautics organization and our international partners for establishing a new aircraft production baseline and delivery profile that will provide industry, government, partner countries and FMS customers as well as you, the investor community with important visibility well into the future.

Aerojet Rocketdyne 交易繼續通過監管審批程序，我們現在預計將在 2022 年第一季度完成。在我將電話轉交給約翰之前，我想強調整個 F-35 組織的努力，包括政府的聯合項目辦公室、我們的隊友和供應商、我們的航空組織和我們的國際合作夥伴建立新的飛機生產基準和交付概況，這將為行業、政府、合作夥伴國家和 FMS 客戶以及您，投資者社區提供重要的知名度很好地進入未來。

The program is strong and stable, and we have opportunities ahead of us to add to that strength. The program has delivered over 700 production aircraft out of a plan of record of over 3,300 jets, including to all 3 U.S. services and 9 international customers so far, and we look forward to continuing the successful program for decades to come. With that, I'll turn the call over to John and I'll rejoin you to answer your questions.

該計劃強大而穩定，我們有機會增強這種實力。該計劃已經交付了超過 3,300 架噴氣式飛機的記錄計劃中的 700 多架生產型飛機，到目前為止，包括所有 3 個美國服務和 9 個國際客戶，我們期待在未來幾十年繼續成功的計劃。有了這個，我會把電話轉給約翰，我會重新加入你回答你的問題。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. As I highlight our results, please follow along with the web charts we have included with our earnings release today. Let's begin with Chart 3 and an overview of third quarter activity. Starting with sales, we reported revenue of $16 billion. This result was below our expectation as we realized larger-than-anticipated supply chain impacts across Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control and Space. These impacts span multiple suppliers, and our expectation is that we will incrementally recover from these disruptions over the next 12 to 18 months.

謝謝，吉姆，大家早上好。當我強調我們的結果時，請關注我們今天發布的收益報告中包含的網絡圖表。讓我們從圖表 3 和第三季度活動概覽開始。從銷售額開始，我們報告的收入為 160 億美元。這一結果低於我們的預期，因為我們意識到對航空、導彈和火控以及航天領域的供應鏈影響大於預期。這些影響涉及多個供應商，我們預計我們將在未來 12 到 18 個月內逐步從這些中斷中恢復過來。

Despite this reduction in sales volume, our segment operating profit increased year-over-year to $1.9 billion on strong operational performance across the enterprise. Our earnings per share of $2.21 included a noncash charge of $4.72 related to our previously announced pension transaction. We generated $1.9 billion in cash from operations and continued our practice of accelerating payments to our supply chain with $1.5 billion in accelerated payments at quarter end.

儘管銷量有所下降，但由於整個企業的強勁運營業績，我們的部門營業利潤同比增長至 19 億美元。我們 2.21 美元的每股收益包括與我們先前宣布的養老金交易相關的 4.72 美元的非現金費用。我們從運營中產生了 19 億美元的現金，並繼續我們加速向供應鏈付款的做法，在季度末加速支付了 15 億美元。

The supply chain disruptions we experienced during the third quarter underscore the fact that many of our suppliers are still dealing with the financial stress caused by the global pandemic. In addition, we continue to return substantial amounts of capital to our shareholders through both dividend payments and share repurchase activity. And we have provided trending data for 2022, which we will discuss further in a few minutes.

我們在第三季度經歷的供應鏈中斷凸顯了一個事實，即我們的許多供應商仍在應對全球大流行病造成的財務壓力。此外，我們繼續通過股息支付和股票回購活動向股東返還大量資本。我們提供了 2022 年的趨勢數據，我們將在幾分鐘後進一步討論。

Turning to Chart 4, we compare our sales and segment operating profit this year with last year's results. As we noted in our earnings release, our third quarter sales are below 2020 levels, primarily because of the renationalization of the Atomic Weapons Establishment program in our space business area. Our third quarter sales also reflect recent supply chain delays, most notably on the F-35 production activity and on several production programs within both Missiles and Fire Control and Space.

轉到圖 4，我們將今年的銷售額和部門營業利潤與去年的結果進行了比較。正如我們在收益發布中指出的那樣，我們第三季度的銷售額低於 2020 年的水平，這主要是因為我們太空業務領域的原子武器建立計劃重新國有化。我們第三季度的銷售額也反映了最近的供應鏈延誤，最明顯的是 F-35 生產活動以及導彈、火控和太空領域的幾個生產項目。

Despite this reduction in sales volume, our third quarter segment operating profit is up from last year as strong operational performance resulted in significant risk retirements across all 4 business areas.

儘管銷量有所下降，但我們第三季度的分部營業利潤仍高於去年，因為強勁的經營業績導致所有 4 個業務領域都面臨重大風險退休。

Chart 5 shows our earnings per share for the quarter. Our earnings per share of $2.21 incorporates a $4.72 noncash charge associated with the $4.9 billion pension liability transfer we completed back in August. On an adjusted basis, our pre-transaction earnings per share of $6.93 and was 11% higher than our 2020 results due to improved segment operating margins, reduced share count and another quarter of mark-to-market gains across our Lockheed Martin Ventures portfolio.

圖 5 顯示了本季度的每股收益。我們 2.21 美元的每股收益包含 4.72 美元的非現金費用，與我們在 8 月份完成的 49 億美元養老金負債轉移相關。在調整後的基礎上，我們的交易前每股收益為 6.93 美元，比我們 2020 年的業績高出 11%，這歸功於分部營業利潤率的提高、股票數量的減少以及我們洛克希德馬丁風險投資組合的另外四分之一的按市值計算的收益。

While future volatility associated with investments in early-stage companies as expected, the significant gains realized across multiple holdings in our ventures portfolio, reinforce the value of investing in and partnering with companies focused on cutting-edge technologies.

雖然未來的波動與預期的早期公司投資相關，但我們的風險投資組合中的多個持股實現的顯著收益，加強了投資於專注於尖端技術的公司並與之合作的價值。

On Chart 6, we will look at our year-to-date cash generation and deployment. Subtracting our capital expenditures from almost $5 billion of cash from operations, our year-to-date free cash flow is greater than $4 billion. We've repurchased $2 billion of shares year-to-date, including $500 million during the third quarter and have made more than $2 billion in dividend payments. In total, our balanced cash deployment of nearly $4.2 billion represents over 100% of free cash flow returned to our shareholders year-to-date. And we will continue these shareholder-friendly actions going forward as evidenced by our recent dividend increase and share repurchase program announcements.

在圖 6 中，我們將查看年初至今的現金生成和部署情況。從近 50 億美元的運營現金中減去我們的資本支出，我們今年迄今的自由現金流量超過 40 億美元。今年迄今，我們回購了 20 億美元的股票，其中包括第三季度的 5 億美元，並支付了超過 20 億美元的股息。總的來說，我們近 42 億美元的平衡現金部署佔年初至今返還給股東的自由現金流的 100% 以上。正如我們最近的股息增加和股票回購計劃公告所證明的那樣，我們將繼續採取這些有利於股東的行動。

Moving on to Chart 7 and our 2021 guidance update. We've lowered our 2021 outlook for sales and segment operating profit to reflect the previously discussed supply chain impacts that emerged in August and September. We've reduced our outlook for cash from operations primarily to reflect our updated plan to maintain our current $1.5 billion level of accelerated payments to our supply chain. We plan to continue supporting our suppliers as they recover from pandemic-related impacts, especially small and medium businesses, both across the country and internationally, to help maintain program schedules and customer missions. The full year outlook for earnings per share has increased $0.35 from the midpoint of last quarter's range driven by Lockheed Martin Ventures investment gains in several nonoperational items.

繼續看圖 7 和我們的 2021 年指南更新。我們下調了 2021 年的銷售和部門營業利潤前景，以反映之前討論的 8 月和 9 月出現的供應鏈影響。我們降低了對運營現金的展望，主要是為了反映我們更新的計劃，以維持我們目前 15 億美元的供應鏈加速支付水平。我們計劃繼續支持我們的供應商從大流行病相關的影響中恢復過來，特別是在全國和國際上的中小企業，以幫助維持項目時間表和客戶任務。受洛克希德馬丁風險投資公司在幾個非運營項目的投資收益的推動，全年每股收益預期比上一季度範圍的中點增加了 0.35 美元。

Now turning to Chart 8. We take a closer look at the current year revisions to 2021 sales by business area. As discussed, Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control and Space have all been affected by lower-than-anticipated activity coming through our supply chain. The level of reduction in supply chain activity over the past 2 months is higher than what we've been experiencing since the beginning of the pandemic, and our 2021 sales outlook assumes that we will see a return to more normal activity levels in the fourth quarter. In addition, our sales outlook for 2021 and our trending information for 2022 excludes any potential impacts associated with the recent executive order on safety protocols for federal contractors.

現在轉向圖 8。我們按業務領域仔細查看今年對 2021 年銷售額的修訂。如前所述，航空、導彈、火控和航天都受到了我們供應鏈中低於預期的活動的影響。過去 2 個月供應鏈活動的減少水平高於我們自大流行開始以來的水平，我們的 2021 年銷售前景假設我們將在第四季度看到更正常的活動水平.此外，我們的 2021 年銷售展望和 2022 年趨勢信息不包括與最近關於聯邦承包商安全協議的行政命令相關的任何潛在影響。

On Chart 9, we see segment operating profit tracking with the reduction in expected sales volume and our expected segment operating margin outlook remains at 11%. On Chart 10, we take a closer look at our initial trending information for 2022. We've estimated 2022 sales at approximately $66 billion, a decline of 1.5% from our projected 2021 results. As a reminder, the renationalization of our work in support of the United Kingdom's Atomic Weapons Establishment earlier this year creates a headwind of just under $900 million on a year-over-year basis.

在圖 9 中，我們看到分部營業利潤隨著預期銷量的減少而變化，我們預計分部營業利潤率前景仍為 11%。在圖 10 中，我們仔細查看了 2022 年的初步趨勢信息。我們估計 2022 年的銷售額約為 660 億美元，比我們預計的 2021 年結果下降 1.5%。提醒一下，今年早些時候我們支持英國原子武器機構的工作重新國有化，造成了同比略低於 9 億美元的逆風。

We are expecting segment operating margins to remain at approximately 11%, and we are projecting growth in cash from operations year-over-year to greater than or equal to $8.4 billion. This outlook assumes there will be no increase in tax payments related to capitalizing R&D costs. If current legislation is not amended, our cash from operations outlook could be reduced by up to $2 billion.

我們預計分部營業利潤率將保持在 11% 左右，我們預計運營現金同比增長至 84 億美元以上。這一展望假設與研發成本資本化相關的稅收不會增加。如果不修改現行立法，我們的運營現金前景可能會減少多達 20 億美元。

Also, given we continue experiencing impacts across our supply chain, we now anticipate maintaining accelerated payments at the current $1.5 billion level through year-end 2022. Our prior multiyear cash forecast assume there would no longer be a need to accelerate payments to our supply chain beyond 2021. We are currently assuming a statutory corporate tax rate of 21% and we have not included any financial projections associated with closing the Aerojet Rocketdyne acquisition, which, as Jim mentioned, is now expected to occur during the first quarter of 2022, subject to required regulatory approval.

此外，鑑於我們在整個供應鏈中繼續受到影響，我們現在預計到 2022 年底將加速付款保持在目前 15 億美元的水平。我們之前的多年現金預測假設不再需要加速向我們的供應鏈付款2021 年以後。我們目前假設法定公司稅率為 21%，並且我們沒有包括與完成 Aerojet Rocketdyne 收購相關的任何財務預測，正如 Jim 所提到的，現在預計將在 2022 年第一季度發生，受到所需的監管批准。

Turning to pension-related assumptions. Interest rates have increased since year-end 2020. Our year-to-date actual returns have been higher than previously expected and we've lowered our long-term rate of return to 6.5%. And in response to investors asking for additional information on pension trends, we have included 2 charts on this topic in the appendix. These trends include no required pension contributions through 2025 based on current assumptions.

轉向與養老金相關的假設。自 2020 年底以來，利率有所上升。我們今年迄今的實際回報率高於此前預期，我們已將長期回報率降至 6.5%。為了回應投資者要求提供有關養老金趨勢的更多信息，我們在附錄中包含了 2 張關於該主題的圖表。根據當前假設，這些趨勢包括到 2025 年無需繳納養老金。

On Chart 11, we outlined our expected capital deployment activities for 2022. We anticipate spending approximately $2 billion on capital projects next year, which represents an increase of approximately $300 million over expected 2021 levels. In addition, we anticipate investing approximately $1.5 billion on independent research and development activities, which represents a $200 million increase over planned 2021 levels. These investments are being made to enhance our delivery of critical systems and products to our customers as they execute their national security missions while ensuring we are well positioned to compete for new business opportunities.

在圖 11 中，我們概述了 2022 年的預期資本部署活動。我們預計明年在資本項目上的支出約為 20 億美元，比 2021 年的預期水平增加約 3 億美元。此外，我們預計將在獨立研發活動上投資約 15 億美元，比計劃的 2021 年水平增加 2 億美元。進行這些投資是為了在客戶執行國家安全任務時增強我們向客戶交付關鍵系統和產品的能力，同時確保我們在競爭新商機方面處於有利地位。

We will be making over $3 billion in dividend payments next year based on a recently announced $0.20 per share increase to our quarterly dividend rate. And as Jim shared earlier, we will also continue to strategically buy back shares when we believe they are trading below intrinsic value as they are now. We are planning to opportunistically repurchase up to $6 billion in shares over the next 12 to 18 months. We are confident we have the balance sheet flexibility and firepower to pursue all avenues of growth while returning significant capital to our shareholders.

根據最近宣布的季度股息率每股增加 0.20 美元，明年我們將支付超過 30 億美元的股息。正如吉姆早些時候分享的那樣，當我們認為股票的交易價格低於現在的內在價值時，我們還將繼續戰略性地回購股票。我們計劃在未來 12 至 18 個月內機會主義地回購高達 60 億美元的股票。我們相信，我們擁有資產負債表的靈活性和火力，可以尋求所有增長途徑，同時向股東返還大量資本。

On Chart 12, we provide some additional detail on our expected long-term trajectory for F-35 sales. As Jim commented earlier, we recently reached agreement with the joint program office on our expected F-35 delivery plan. This joint plan represents the best intersection of production operations and supply chain capabilities, technology insertion in support of increasing mission requirements and both the timing and quantity of anticipated new production aircraft award decisions. We are very pleased with the outcome of this joint production replan as it provides stability and predictability across all key elements of this program.

在圖 12 中，我們提供了有關 F-35 銷售預期長期軌蹟的更多詳細信息。正如吉姆早些時候評論的那樣，我們最近與聯合項目辦公室就我們預期的 F-35 交付計劃達成了協議。該聯合計劃代表了生產運營和供應鏈能力、支持不斷增長的任務要求的技術插入以及預期的新生產飛機授予決策的時間和數量的最佳交集。我們對這一聯合生產重新計劃的結果感到非常滿意，因為它為該計劃的所有關鍵要素提供了穩定性和可預測性。

Deliveries are expected to grow to 156 aircraft by 2023 and will remain at that level for the foreseeable future. We are projecting F-35 production sales in 2022 will be lower than 2021 levels and sales will also decline slightly in 2023. Revenues are expected to remain around 2023 levels throughout the balance of the forecasted time frame. As we've previously discussed, the growth in F-35 sales volume will primarily be driven by sustainment activity as the number of deployed aircraft and associated flight hours grows rapidly while we continue to aggressively pursue cost takeout in partnership with our customer. Finally, we are also projecting modest growth in development activity as our customers continue seeking further advancements and capabilities for our unrivaled 5th generation aircraft.

到 2023 年，交付量預計將增至 156 架，並在可預見的未來保持這一水平。我們預計 2022 年 F-35 的生產銷量將低於 2021 年的水平，2023 年的銷量也將略有下降。預計在整個預測時間框架內，收入將保持在 2023 年左右的水平。正如我們之前所討論的那樣，F-35 銷量的增長將主要由維護活動推動，因為部署的飛機數量和相關飛行小時數迅速增長，同時我們繼續與客戶合作積極尋求成本削減。最後，隨著我們的客戶繼續尋求我們無與倫比的第 5 代飛機的進一步進步和功能，我們還預計開發活動將適度增長。

To conclude, on Chart 14, we have our summary. We've reduced our 2021 outlook based on the higher-than-expected supply chain impacts we experienced during the third quarter. The supply chain and related production impacts, along with our updated F-35 production plan and the other factors Jim mentioned, have shaped our outlook for 2022 and our future expectations. Our strong balance sheet and cash generation give us multiple options to deploy cash. And to echo Jim, we will prioritize investments, which will grow free cash flow per share. And with our broad portfolio, dedicated employees, strong balance sheet and a disciplined and dynamic capital allocation strategy, we remain focused on our customers' mission and long-term value creation for our shareholders. With that, John, we're ready to begin the Q&A.

最後，在圖 14 上，我們有我們的總結。基於我們在第三季度經歷的高於預期的供應鏈影響，我們降低了 2021 年的展望。供應鍊和相關生產影響，以及我們更新的 F-35 生產計劃和 Jim 提到的其他因素，影響了我們對 2022 年的展望和未來的預期。我們強大的資產負債表和現金生成為我們提供了多種部署現金的選擇。為了呼應吉姆，我們將優先考慮投資，這將增加每股自由現金流。憑藉我們廣泛的投資組合、敬業的員工、強大的資產負債表和有紀律且動態的資本配置策略，我們始終專注於客戶的使命和為股東創造長期價值。有了這個，John，我們就可以開始問答了。

(Operator Instructions) And first, from the line of Rich Safran with Seaport Global Securities.

（操作員說明）首先，來自 Rich Safran 與 Seaport Global Securities 的合作。

Jim, John, Greg. I have a 2-part question here on your 2022 guide, your long-term cash flow guide and some of your opening remarks. What's the baseline budget that you're assuming in your guide? And specifically, if the plus ups to the President's request from HaaS and SaaS were included, did that imply some upside to your '22 guide? Or is it just too late for fiscal '22 funding to have an impact?

吉姆、約翰、格雷格。關於您的 2022 年指南、您的長期現金流量指南和您的一些開場白，我有一個由兩部分組成的問題。您在指南中假設的基準預算是多少？具體來說，如果包括總統要求的 HaaS 和 SaaS 的優點，這是否意味著您的 22 指南有一些優點？還是 22 世紀財政資金產生影響已經太晚了？

And the second part to my question is, so you lowered your cash from operations guide for '22. I want to know if you could discuss a bit more about what you think cash flow looks like beyond '22 and what you're assuming along with that.

我的問題的第二部分是，所以你從 22 年的運營指南中降低了現金。我想知道您是否可以更多地討論一下您認為 22 年後的現金流情況以及您的假設。

Yes. Thanks, Rich. It's John. I'll take both parts of that 2-part question. So first, in regards to the assumptions in and around the budgetary based on, we're using the President's budget of $715 billion for the government fiscal year 2022 in the trending information we've given you. I'd say we're encouraged about the direction of the various committee markups as they reflect really good support for a number of our programs.

是的。謝謝，里奇。是約翰。我將回答這個由兩部分組成的問題的兩個部分。因此，首先，關於預算中和周圍的假設，我們在我們提供給您的趨勢信息中使用了總統 2022 財年 7150 億美元的預算。我想說我們對各種委員會標記的方向感到鼓舞，因為它們反映了對我們許多計劃的真正良好支持。

And to your question about how much -- if any of this will come through in 2022, the answer to that question is going to be based on how much incremental funding is actually appropriated, how long it takes for that appropriated funding to end up getting on contract with us and us flowing that down to our supply chain. And then the third factor is what specific programs the incremental appropriations are applied to. It's easier, obviously, to maintain programs at current run rates than it is to accelerate program.

關於你的問題——如果其中任何一項將在 2022 年實現，這個問題的答案將取決於實際撥款的增量資金數量，撥款資金最終需要多長時間才能獲得與我們簽訂合同，我們將其流向我們的供應鏈。第三個因素是增量撥款應用於哪些具體項目。很明顯，以當前運行速度維持程序比加速程序更容易。

So any programs that we're planning sort of a trend down would be really good candidates for being able to see opportunities in 2022 related to increased appropriations. And I'll kind of finish this section by saying obviously, by the time we're in January, when we've given you an updated outlook for 2022, we should have a lot more clarity in and around the budgetary trends.

因此，我們計劃下降趨勢的任何計劃都將是能夠在 2022 年看到與增加撥款相關的機會的非常好的候選者。在結束本節時，我會明確地說，到 1 月份時，當我們向您提供 2022 年的最新展望時，我們應該對預算趨勢及其周圍有更多的了解。

Now turning to your -- the second part, which I had to do with -- we've previously given multiyear cash -- operating cash flow guidance. And of course, all these metrics are going to be assuming the R&D tax change does not go into effect. Our prior guidance was like $8.9 billion, $9 billion and $9.1 billion. You've seen we've got our guidance now at $8.3 billion for this year and $8.4 billion for next year. And I'll say we anticipate higher than $8.4 billion operating cash flow guidance as we look ahead to 2023. But really, the only factor that's changed since the multiyear guidance we gave before is in the level and the duration of the accelerated payments we're planning to make to our supply chain.

現在轉向你的 - 第二部分，我必須處理 - 我們之前已經提供多年現金 - 運營現金流量指導。當然，所有這些指標都將假設研發稅的變化不會生效。我們之前的指導是 89 億美元、90 億美元和 91 億美元。你已經看到我們現在的指導意見是今年 83 億美元，明年 84 億美元。我會說，在我們展望 2023 年時，我們預計運營現金流量指導將超過 84 億美元。但實際上，自我們之前給出的多年指導以來唯一發生變化的因素是我們加速支付的水平和持續時間。重新計劃加入我們的供應鏈。

I think I mentioned in the script, we have previously in that $8.9 billion, $9 billion and $9.1 billion track assume we would be accelerating $1.2 billion worth of accelerated -- of payments to the supply chain at year-end -- at the end of this year. But then the assumption was the pandemic would be behind us in 2022. We'd unwind that program. We'd end 2022 with no accelerated payments being made through our supply chain. Our current forecast, the $8.3 billion and $8.4 billion assumes $1.5 billion of accelerated payments at the end of this year and $1.5 billion of accelerated payments at the end of 2022. So if the pandemic impacts are behind us before we end year-end 2022, our guide of $8.4 billion would increase by that $1.5 billion.

我想我在腳本中提到過，我們之前在 89 億美元、90 億美元和 91 億美元的軌道上假設我們將在年底加速價值 12 億美元的加速支付給供應鏈。今年。但當時的假設是，大流行病將在 2022 年過去。我們將取消該計劃。我們將在 2022 年結束時沒有通過我們的供應鏈進行加速付款。我們目前的預測，83 億美元和 84 億美元假設在今年年底加速支付 15 億美元，在 2022 年底加速支付 15 億美元。因此，如果大流行的影響在 2022 年底之前已經過去，我們的 84 億美元指南將增加 15 億美元。

Our next question is from Rob Stallard with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Rob Stallard。

Jim, just a quick question and clarification on your 5-year sales outlook. Did you say you expected sales growth to accelerate after 2023? And then secondly, as a question, what are your expectations for operating margins over this period?

吉姆，就您的 5 年銷售前景提出一個簡短的問題和說明。您是否說過您預計 2023 年後銷售增長會加速？其次，作為一個問題，您對這段時間的營業利潤率有何期望？

I'll speak to growth, Rob and make a point on operating margin that John can pick up on. So yes, based on hypersonics classified programs, programs of record like CH-53K and others we do believe that we'll have a rebound to meaningful growth in 2023 and beyond. But again, that's also dependent on a number of factors, including the budget, et cetera, that we've just talked about. So yes, that is the idea. And frankly, we want to use this year or 2 period to accelerate share of purchase, reduce the count. So when that inflection point does come on growth, you will have as shareholders, I think basically an amplified benefit during that latter period, if you will. So we fully expect that with margins being pretty steady along the way, right, John?

我會談談增長，Rob，並提出約翰可以接受的營業利潤率。因此，是的，基於超音速機密項目、CH-53K 等記錄項目，我們確實相信我們將在 2023 年及以後實現有意義的增長。但同樣，這也取決於許多因素，包括我們剛剛談到的預算等。所以是的，就是這個想法。坦率地說，我們希望利用今年或 2 年的時間來加快購買份額，減少數量。因此，當增長出現拐點時，如果你願意的話，作為股東，我認為在後期基本上會擴大收益。所以我們完全期望利潤率一路保持穩定，對吧，約翰？

Yes, absolutely. So Rob, I mean just to kind of footstop what Jim was saying to give a little color. The 4 categories that Jim mentioned in his scripted remarks, hypersonics classified growth and programs of record and competitive new starts. When I look at that subset of revenue for those 4 categories in 2021 is sort of in the neighborhood of $17 billion. Over the period going out through, for the next 5 years, that set of activity, assuming we hit our operational marks, assuming these programs continue on their programs of record, and we win our share of these competitive new business opportunities that we've talked about. That $17 billion worth of program revenue today will grow at about a 9% compound annual growth rate, which gives me some level of comfort that the longer-term trends that Jim has talked about will hold.

是的，一點沒錯。所以 Rob，我的意思是只是為了讓 Jim 說的話有點停滯不前。吉姆在他的腳本發言中提到的 4 個類別，超音速分類增長和創紀錄的項目以及有競爭力的新起點。當我查看 2021 年這 4 個類別的收入子集時，大約在 170 億美元左右。在接下來的 5 年中，假設我們達到了運營目標，假設這些項目繼續進行他們的記錄項目，那麼在接下來的 5 年中，我們將贏得這些具有競爭力的新商業機會的份額討論過。今天價值 170 億美元的計劃收入將以約 9% 的複合年增長率增長，這讓我感到一定程度的安慰，因為吉姆談到的長期趨勢將持續下去。

Just to reiterate, we're expecting a slight decline in '22, a bounce back in 2023. And then I would say, increasing growth and increasing growth rates going forward. Now -- yes, on the topic of margins, I think 11% is a good working target for us given the evolution in our portfolio and the activity that we see going forward. I just highlighted the 4 categories that we'll be seeing growth. A lot of those are new start programs. There is going to be some growth in programs of record, which we would hope to turn into accretive margin programs. But there is a lot of growth in new start areas, developmental areas.

重申一下，我們預計 22 年會略有下降，2023 年會反彈。然後我會說，未來會增加增長和增加增長率。現在——是的，關於利潤率的話題，我認為 11% 對我們來說是一個很好的工作目標，因為我們的投資組合正在發生變化，而且我們看到未來的活動。我剛剛強調了我們將看到增長的 4 個類別。其中很多是新的啟動程序。記錄在案的計劃將會有所增長，我們希望將其轉變為增加利潤的計劃。但是在新的起步領域，發展領域有很多增長。

The good news is we will get -- there will be cost reimbursable contracts. We'll have assurance of recovery of the costs we're incurring, but they, by definition, will be lower margin activities moving forward. And I should mention, and this is just to get this on the record early, there are certain classified activities that we can't talk about. But if those programs continue to progress along the track that they're on. My expectation is we will be making investments in some of those programs out in the '23, '24, '25 time frame that will be dilutive to margins. But I think in balance, an 11% operating margin is a good metric for us.

好消息是我們會得到——將會有可償還費用的合同。我們將保證收回我們所產生的成本，但根據定義，它們將是未來利潤率較低的活動。我應該提一下，這只是為了儘早記錄在案，有些機密活動我們不能談論。但是，如果這些計劃繼續沿著它們所處的軌道前進。我的預期是，我們將在 23 年、24 年、25 年的時間框架內對其中一些項目進行投資，這將稀釋利潤。但我認為，總的來說，11% 的營業利潤率對我們來說是一個很好的指標。

Our next question is from Mike Maugeri with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Mike Maugeri。

So following on Rob's question, and you gave us the 4 priorities to underpin the growth forecast. But Jim or John, can you get more specific and sort of quantify these buckets, how they translate to revenue and feather into your outlook beyond '22 for a return to growth? And then separately, what headwinds are you anticipating to offset these growth buckets?

因此，在 Rob 的問題之後，您給了我們 4 個優先事項來支持增長預測。但是吉姆或約翰，你能否更具體地量化這些桶，它們如何轉化為收入，並融入你對 22 歲以後恢復增長的展望？然後分別地，您預計會抵消這些增長桶的逆風是什麼？

Yes, sure, Mike. It's John. I'll take and I'll talk thematically first through the 4 buckets and growth over time. And then maybe now as good a time as any to talk specifically about sort of what we're seeing moving from '21 to '22 and the headwinds. But the 4 big buckets, the first one is hypersonic activity. Today, we're doing about $1.5 billion worth of revenue in that area. If we are able to move a number of those activities into a -- from development into production, which we fully expect will happen. We're making great progress on a number of them that are visible and are being reported on today.

是的，當然，邁克。是約翰。我將首先通過 4 個桶和隨時間的增長進行主題討論。然後現在也許是一個很好的時間來專門談論我們所看到的從 21 世紀到 22 年的變化以及逆風。但是4個大桶，第一個是高超音速活動。今天，我們在該領域的收入約為 15 億美元。如果我們能夠將這些活動中的一些轉移到 - 從開發到生產，我們完全期望這會發生。我們在許多可見的和今天正在報導的問題上取得了很大進展。

But our projection would be assuming a number of those activities proceed into a production environment that $1.5 billion to grow as high as $3 billion by 2026. The second area classified in -- I'll say upfront, we hesitated even highlighting this given there's not a lot that we can say in general about classified activity. But because it is a large and growing component of our business, we thought it was important to at least give you a top-level trend information. And because like I said, we will be making investments in some of this activity downstream, which will have dilutive impacts, thought it was a good idea to talk about.

但我們的預測是假設其中一些活動進入到 15 億美元的生產環境，到 2026 年將增長至 30 億美元。關於機密活動，我們可以籠統地說很多。但由於它是我們業務的一個龐大且不斷增長的組成部分，我們認為至少為您提供頂級趨勢信息很重要。因為就像我說的那樣，我們將對下游的一些活動進行投資，這將產生稀釋影響，認為這是一個好主意。

But in aggregate, our classified portfolio will grow, we expect at a rate above 5%. So that is a strong growing area for us. The programs of record, which, as Jim took through some of the big ones he mentioned would be CH-53K, F-35 sustainment, the PAC-3 program and an additional growth in the fleet ballistic missile and evolutions and new advances in that program. That portfolio today is worth about $8.5 billion. When we project out to 2026, over that period of time, the compound annual growth rate in that program set is like an 8%. And it's highlighted by CH-53K, where we will be delivering out to a program of record of 200 units. I think the final deliveries are made in 2032.

但總的來說，我們的分類投資組合將會增長，我們預計增長率將超過 5%。所以這對我們來說是一個強勁的增長領域。記錄在案的計劃，正如 Jim 經歷的一些他提到的大計劃，將是 CH-53K、F-35 維持、PAC-3 計劃以及艦隊彈道導彈的額外增長和演變以及這方面的新進展程序。如今，該投資組合價值約 85 億美元。當我們預測到 2026 年時，在那段時間裡，該計劃集的複合年增長率約為 8%。 CH-53K 突出了這一點，我們將交付 200 台的記錄程序。我認為最終交付將在 2032 年完成。

But just keeping that program on its program of record will go a long way towards us achieving that growth in the program of record and CAGR that I just talked about. And then the final area is the new business which are a set of sort of wildcards, you're going to get binary decisions in and around the FLRAA competition or the FARA competition. One of the new business areas that Jim talked about is next-generation interceptor. We've successfully moved into a down select where there's ourselves and one other competitor. We're making great progress. We've achieved a number of important program milestones recently. We feel good about where we're heading.

但是，只要將該計劃保留在其記錄計劃中，就會對我們實現我剛才談到的記錄計劃和 CAGR 的增長大有幫助。最後一個領域是新業務，它是一組通配符，您將在 FLRAA 競賽或 FARA 競賽中和周圍做出二元決策。 Jim 談到的新業務領域之一是下一代攔截器。我們已經成功地進入了一個向下選擇，那裡有我們自己和另一個競爭對手。我們正在取得很大進展。我們最近實現了許多重要的計劃里程碑。我們對前進的方向感覺良好。

But that will be a down select and then sort of the wildcard in the bunch and opportunity we're very excited about is the KC-Y tanker program, where we've announced that we will be teaming with Airbus, who we think has a very capable frame for doing this mission. I think we bring extensive experience in the mission capabilities that would go on to that airframe. I think we make a very formidable team. We're very excited about that opportunity.

但這將是一個向下選擇，然後是一堆通配符，我們非常興奮的機會是 KC-Y 加油機計劃，我們已經宣布我們將與空客合作，我們認為空客有非常有能力完成這項任務的框架。我認為我們在任務能力方面帶來了豐富的經驗，這些經驗將適用於該機身。我認為我們是一支非常強大的團隊。我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。

And depending on outcomes, I mean, obviously, as we're doing next to nothing in either -- any of those programs besides the next-generation interceptor, that growth rate could be explosive. If we prevail on FLRAA and FARA, which we think we're very well positioned to do, if we're down selected on NGI and tanker program is awarded to us, there will be substantial growth in that bucket. And the headwinds, I guess, like I said, now let's tactically kind of walk through the 2021 outlook of roughly $67 billion and how that translates as we look ahead to 2022.

根據結果，我的意思是，很明顯，因為我們在這兩個項目中幾乎什麼都不做——除了下一代攔截器之外的任何一個項目，增長率都可能是爆炸性的。如果我們在 FLRAA 和 FARA 上獲勝，我們認為我們非常有能力做到這一點，如果我們在 NGI 上被選中並且油輪計劃被授予我們，那麼這個桶將會有實質性的增長。逆風，我想，就像我說的那樣，現在讓我們從戰術上談談 2021 年大約 670 億美元的前景，以及我們展望 2022 年時將如何轉化。

Obviously, you look at the map, and we're down about $1 billion. The obvious large year-to-year headwind is related to the AWE renationalization, which I believe either Jim or I talked about in our script as being a headwind of just under $900 million. The second headwind you'll see on our F-35 revenue chart, we're projecting a decrease in F-35 production-related revenue of about $400 million moving from '21 to '22.

顯然，你看看地圖，我們損失了大約 10 億美元。明顯的年復一年不利因素與 AWE 重新國有化有關，我相信 Jim 或我在我們的劇本中談到這是略低於 9 億美元的不利因素。您將在我們的 F-35 收入圖表上看到的第二個不利因素是，我們預計從 21 年到 22 年，與 F-35 生產相關的收入將減少約 4 億美元。

And then we have 2 programs that are sort of in their natural life cycle evolution, very successful programs, but they've delivered out, and that's the Black Hawk helicopter program. And by delivered out, I mean moving down from the peak. The number of helicopters we're going to deliver this year will be cut in half by the time we're 2 years out. And then our highly successful next-generation OPIR program. Both of those programs moving from '21 to '22, if you combine the downtick in revenue, it aggregates to about $600 million.

然後我們有 2 個項目，它們在自然生命週期演變中，非常成功的項目，但它們已經交付，那就是黑鷹直升機項目。交付出去，我的意思是從高峰下降。到 2 年後，我們今年要交付的直升機數量將減少一半。然後是我們非常成功的下一代 OPIR 計劃。這兩個項目都從 21 年到 22 年，如果你把收入的下降結合起來，總計約為 6 億美元。

And then one of the other external factors was the recently announced and executed withdrawal of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. The primary impact to us is in a contract -- special ops logistics support program. We had some other Afghan drawdown related impacts. In total, it's about a $200 million year-over-year headwind. But now as I pivot to the plus side, one of the programs that's ramping up year-over-year is one of those in the, I'd call it, competitive category that we talked about. It's the next-generation interceptor, where we're doing about $200 million in revenue in 2021. We expect to do about $600 million of revenue in 2022.

然後，其他外部因素之一是最近宣布並執行的撤出美國在阿富汗的軍事存在。對我們的主要影響是合同——特殊行動後勤支持計劃。我們還有其他一些與阿富汗撤軍相關的影響。總的來說，這是大約 2 億美元的同比逆風。但現在，當我轉向積極的一面時，其中一個逐年增加的項目是我們談到的競爭類別中的一個。這是下一代攔截器，我們在 2021 年的收入約為 2 億美元。我們預計到 2022 年的收入約為 6 億美元。

We have a lot of growth, as we mentioned, within our classified activity. A lot of that activity is being done in our Skunk Works organization within Aeronautics. That work is going to be growing about $400 million year-over-year. And the final large program of record growth is in the CH-53K heavy lift where we'd expect to see $300 million year-over-year growth. So on balance, it's down. The headwind is removal of the AWE activity we were doing.

正如我們提到的，我們在分類活動中有很多增長。很多這樣的活動都是在我們航空部門的臭鼬工廠組織中進行的。這項工作將同比增長約 4 億美元。最後一個創紀錄增長的大型項目是 CH-53K 重型運輸機，我們預計該項目將實現 3 億美元的同比增長。所以總的來說，它下降了。逆風是取消我們正在做的 AWE 活動。

Our next question is from George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究中心的喬治夏皮羅。

Yes. Just to follow up on your comments on the sectors. First, AWE, a $900 million hit. I thought that program had been running more like $300 million or $350 million a quarter. And obviously, it's really only the first half that overlaps for '21 to '22. So if you comment on that. And then if you looked at each of the sectors there, I would think that the aeronautics would be down maybe $1 billion, $1.5 billion, but you get some growth in RMS, you get some growth in space ex the AWE. So if you could just kind of comment on that status.

是的。只是為了跟進您對這些行業的評論。首先是 AWE，票房 9 億美元。我認為該計劃每季度的運行成本大約為 3 億美元或 3.5 億美元。很明顯，21 年到 22 年只有上半場重疊。所以如果你對此發表評論。然後，如果你看看那裡的每個部門，我認為航空業可能會下降 10 億美元、15 億美元，但 RMS 會有所增長，AWE 之外的太空也會有所增長。所以，如果你能對那個狀態發表評論。

Yes. Sure, George. So if you go back to like our first and second quarter press releases, and we probably have it in the year-to-date, AWE first quarter activity this year was $440 million. AWE activity in the second quarter was $435 million. You sum those 2, you get the $875 million level of activity we saw probably higher than what you might have remembered because you had a lot of wrap-up associated activity that took place, but it was $875 million in 2021 that won't recur.

是的。當然，喬治。因此，如果您回過頭來喜歡我們的第一季度和第二季度新聞稿，我們可能會在今年迄今發布，那麼今年 AWE 第一季度的活動額為 4.4 億美元。第二季度的 AWE 活動為 4.35 億美元。將這 2 項相加，您會得到我們看到的 8.75 億美元的活動水平，這可能高於您可能記得的水平，因為您發生了很多總結性相關活動，但 2021 年的 8.75 億美元不會再次發生.

And maybe what I'll do is do a high level sort of around the horn of how those -- the headwinds and tailwinds play out by segment. I mean, the first segment we talked about is Aeronautics. As we look ahead to '22, we're expecting low single-digit growth rates in Aeronautics with a slight increase in margins think of it in the 10, 20 basis point range.

也許我要做的是圍繞這些——逆風和順風是如何按部分發揮作用的——做一些高層次的工作。我的意思是，我們談到的第一個部分是航空。當我們展望 22 年時，我們預計航空業的低個位數增長率和利潤率將略有增加，將其考慮在 10、20 個基點範圍內。

Within Missiles and Fire Control, we're actually expecting a slight decline, although -- think of it as a low single-digit decline with margins slightly lower than 2021 levels at, again, 10 to 20 basis points. If you go to RMS, we're expecting a low single-digit decline as well with margins maybe up to 40 basis points below what we're going to end up with in 2021. And then finally, at Space, we're expecting mid-single-digit declines. Obviously, that's where the AWE reduction takes place with margins kind of comparable to what we're expecting for 2021.

在導彈和火控領域，我們實際上預計會出現小幅下降，儘管 - 將其視為較低的個位數下降，利潤率再次略低於 2021 年的水平，即 10 到 20 個基點。如果你去 RMS，我們預計一個低的個位數下降以及利潤率可能比我們將在 2021 年結束的水平低 40 個基點。最後，在 Space，我們預計中個位數下跌。顯然，這就是 AWE 減少的地方，其利潤率與我們對 2021 年的預期相當。

Yes. And George, it's Jim. Just to give you a little more color on just pick on RMS, right? So John already mentioned the Black Hawk is going to be down next year year-to-year and the CH-53K is up, they actually offset each other, okay? So in 2022, it's kind of a watch between, let's call it, those 2 programs. And then similarly, we get combat rescue helicopter upside, maybe $100 million, but probably VH will -- the plan is VH-92A production down about $100 million to $150 million and they offset.

是的。喬治，是吉姆。只是為了讓你在 RMS 上選擇更多顏色，對吧？所以約翰已經提到黑鷹明年將逐年下降，而 CH-53K 將上升，它們實際上相互抵消，好嗎？因此，在 2022 年，這有點像我們稱之為這兩個程序之間的手錶。然後類似地，我們獲得了戰鬥救援直升機的收益，可能是 1 億美元，但 VH 可能會——計劃是 VH-92A 的產量下降約 1 億至 1.5 億美元，它們抵消了。

You might remember that we were part of the Australian Future conventional sub program. Well, that's gotten deferred into nuclear submarine propulsion option. And we're going to compete for that, but it's going to be a while before that kicks in. So there's another $150 million. So there are puts and takes in every BA, if you will, and it's part of, again, new administration, some changes in priorities, changes in alliances, I think they all settle out to the good, but it's going to take a couple of years to get through all that kind of maneuvering and we're going to do the best we can in the next couple of years to make sure that if there's a flattish period for our company as far as revenue, we're going to really double down or triple down on returning cash to shareholders because we've got it.

您可能還記得我們是澳大利亞未來常規子計劃的一部分。好吧，這已經推遲到核潛艇推進選項中。我們將為此而競爭，但還需要一段時間才能開始。所以還有 1.5 億美元。因此，如果你願意的話，每個 BA 都會有投入和投入，這又是新政府的一部分，優先事項的一些變化，聯盟的變化，我認為它們都會向好的方向發展，但這需要一些時間多年的時間來完成所有這些操作，我們將在未來幾年內盡我們所能，以確保如果我們公司的收入出現平穩時期，我們將真正在向股東返還現金方面加倍或三倍下注，因為我們有錢。

And the other thing I'd say, George, real quick to add on to something that John said earlier, we are voluntarily continuing our acceleration of payments to supply chain. This is something for the good of the industry, for the good of the customer. And we want to contribute as all of us in our own ways in this country to recovering from COVID. And again when -- as John said, when COVID subsides, we will get that cash flow number back to where you thought it was going to be in the first place. So just a couple of color commentaries on there because I think you guys are asking some really good questions.

喬治，我要說的另一件事是，很快就可以補充約翰之前說過的話，我們自願繼續加快對供應鏈的支付。這對行業有利，對客戶有利。我們希望以我們自己的方式在這個國家為從 COVID 中恢復做出貢獻。再次——正如約翰所說，當 COVID 消退時，我們將把現金流量數字恢復到你最初認為的水平。所以只有一些顏色評論，因為我認為你們正在問一些非常好的問題。

And next, we'll go to Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global.

接下來，我們將與 Alembic Global 一起去拜訪 Pete Skibitski。

Guys, can you give us greater insight into the supply chain? Because it seems like in a period here where cash flow terms are unusually generous. So it's hard to understand why they'd be in such financial strain. Is it all related to things like just labor availability or COVID mandates or semiconductor shortages. Can you give us greater insight as to why the supply chain is in such dire straits, given the cash flow terms that they've been operating under?

伙計們，您能否讓我們更深入地了解供應鏈？因為這裡的現金流條件似乎異常慷慨。所以很難理解為什麼他們會陷入如此財務緊張的境地。這是否都與勞動力可用性或 COVID 要求或半導體短缺等問題有關？考慮到他們一直在運營的現金流條件下，您能否讓我們更深入地了解為什麼供應鏈處於如此可怕的困境？

Yes. Pete, good question. And I think a large part of the impact that our supply chain is facing are in our suppliers that are dual use. I mean they're supplying to both commercial aerospace and defense. So if we're looking at parts of the supply chain that are strictly defense, they're probably not nearly as stressed financially as our dual-use suppliers, people that are -- they'll make landing gear for us and they'll make landing gear for commercial aircraft, they make brakes. And -- those are the suppliers that have fixed operating costs that have seen substantial revenue decreases on the commercial supply side that have really cut into their operating cash flow.

是的。皮特，問得好。我認為我們的供應鏈面臨的很大一部分影響來自我們的雙重用途供應商。我的意思是他們為商業航空航天和國防供應。因此，如果我們關注供應鏈中嚴格防禦的部分，他們可能不會像我們的軍民兩用供應商那樣面臨財務壓力，他們會為我們製造起落架，他們會為商用飛機製造起落架，他們製造剎車。而且 - 那些具有固定運營成本的供應商已經看到商業供應方面的收入大幅減少，這確實削減了他們的運營現金流。

And we think -- It's the right thing to do. We have access to capital. We have access to cash at extremely good rates. We generate a lot of cash flow. It's -- and as Jim said, it's in the industry's interest, it's in our customers' interest. And frankly, there is an element of self-preservation here. We need our supply chain to be successful for us to be successful. So while it's voluntary, it's not 100% altruistic. I mean we need to make commitments, we need, especially our dual-use vendors and partners or supply chain partners to be successful for the long term.

我們認為——這是正確的做法。我們可以獲得資本。我們可以以非常優惠的利率獲得現金。我們產生了大量的現金流。這是——正如吉姆所說，這符合行業的利益，也符合我們客戶的利益。坦率地說，這裡有自我保護的因素。我們需要我們的供應鏈成功，我們才能成功。因此，雖然它是自願的，但並不是 100% 無私的。我的意思是我們需要做出承諾，我們需要，特別是我們的軍民兩用供應商和合作夥伴或供應鏈合作夥伴，才能取得長期成功。

And next, we'll go to Ron Epstein with Bank of America Securities.

接下來，我們將與美國銀行證券公司的羅恩·愛潑斯坦會面。

Maybe if we could just back up the aperture a little bit. Jim, when you first came on Board, you talked a lot about a focus on the 21st century warfighter, war fighting connectivity, that sort of thing. Then we shifted a little bit maybe with the acquisition of Rocketdyne. And now here we are, it seems like the story has now shifted to this cash return story with no growth.

也許如果我們可以稍微備份光圈。吉姆，當你第一次加入 Board 時，你談到了很多關於關注 21 世紀戰士、戰爭連通性等問題。然後我們可能通過收購 Rocketdyne 進行了一些調整。現在我們到了，故事似乎已經轉移到沒有增長的現金回報故事。

And I think what's on a lot of people's minds is ultimately -- what is the strategy? I mean where are you taking the company? And what's the vision here? Because it really seems -- and I know this may be -- might sound unfair, but it seems a little bit rudderless right now, at least from an outsider's perspective. If you could give us some color on that.

而且我認為很多人的想法最終是——戰略是什麼？我的意思是你要帶公司去哪裡？這裡的願景是什麼？因為它真的看起來——而且我知道這可能是——聽起來不公平，但現在似乎有點沒有方向感，至少從局外人的角度來看是這樣。如果你能給我們一些顏色。

Yes. Well, when you're running a business, Ron, in a dynamic industry with changing government when the government is a major customer, you've got to be agile, right? Now the first thing you mentioned is the long-term strategy of the company. We're going to deliver on our programs and record. We're going to drive operational excellence, but we're driving it towards a mission-oriented paradigm at the end of the day at Lockheed Martin versus a product paradigm, which we've been operating under since at least before World War 2.

是的。好吧，當你在一個動態的行業中經營企業時，羅恩，當政府是主要客戶時，政府不斷變化，你必須敏捷，對嗎？現在你首先提到的是公司的長期戰略。我們將交付我們的計劃和記錄。我們將推動卓越運營，但最終我們將在洛克希德馬丁公司將其推向以任務為導向的範式，而不是我們至少在第二次世界大戰之前就一直在運作的產品範式。

So that paradigm is still there. We're working towards it. In the meantime, we got to deliver for you all as the shareholders financially, and we've got to deliver for our customers operationally. But I'm getting -- I'd like to think tremendous traction with senior government officials in the U.S. and elsewhere that understand that while our industry and their purchase of our products and services over the years has been effective. It's largely effective in the physical world, if you will, in the Newtonian world.

所以那個範式仍然存在。我們正在努力。與此同時，我們必須在財務上為股東們提供服務，我們必須在運營上為我們的客戶提供服務。但我越來越——我想美國和其他地方的高級政府官員會產生巨大的吸引力，他們明白，雖然我們的行業以及他們多年來對我們產品和服務的購買是有效的。如果你願意的話，在牛頓世界中，它在物理世界中非常有效。

We're really good at technologies like hypersonics, space travel, precision weapons, et cetera. Those are in the Newtonian world. We're really good at that as an industry and our customer knows how to buy that stuff. We're not as good as we need to be in the defense industry is merging that excellence in the physical world that we can bring to National Defense, but merging that with the developments -- the accelerated developments in the digital world, by companies that have specialized in things like 5G and AI and distributed computing and networking because if we merge those 2 things together and the ways that we're forecasting and we're building technology road maps to do, we will increase the effectiveness of our current set of platforms in a faster and more robust way than can be done just using the physical attributes in the physical world technologies.

我們非常擅長超音速、太空旅行、精密武器等技術。那些在牛頓世界。作為一個行業，我們真的很擅長這個，我們的客戶知道如何購買這些東西。我們在國防工業中沒有達到我們需要的程度，正在將我們可以為國防帶來的物理世界的卓越融合在一起，但將其與發展相結合——數字世界的加速發展，由那些公司專注於 5G 和 AI 以及分佈式計算和網絡等領域，因為如果我們將這兩個領域以及我們正在預測和構建技術路線圖的方式合併在一起，我們將提高我們當前的一套系統的有效性與僅使用物理世界技術中的物理屬性相比，以更快、更穩健的方式構建平台。

We're going to keep doing all that, but we can actually turn on an afterburner for mission capability for our customers by accelerating those digital technologies into our space, and that is our strategy. The benefit of that is, in addition to having a more effective national defense at a relatively efficient cost is that it will make our platforms more attractive than relative to other OEMs platforms because we intend to build the architecture first with pathfinders with some of our platforms and bringing others as we get some success. So that is the strategy of the company. It has not changed in iota, but our capital allocation strategies have not changed because of dynamic situation that we find ourselves in externally.

我們將繼續做這一切，但實際上我們可以通過將這些數字技術加速到我們的空間來為我們的客戶打開任務能力的加力燃燒室，這就是我們的戰略。這樣做的好處是，除了以相對有效的成本擁有更有效的國防之外，這將使我們的平台比其他 OEM 平台更具吸引力，因為我們打算首先使用我們的一些平台的探路者構建架構並在我們取得一些成功時帶來其他人。這就是公司的戰略。它在 iota 中沒有改變，但我們的資本配置策略並沒有因為我們發現自己處於外部的動態情況而改變。

And our M&A approach had to evolve because there's not that much supply out there in our industry as far as acquisition candidates of any scale and the regulatory environment is also shifting a bit. So we're shifting with it, and we're saying, okay, we still got our baseline strategy, 21st Century Warfare is where we need to end up down the road with our customer. We wanted to get there partly through acquisition, like Aerojet Rocketdyne and i3 to get the technologies mainly in the physical world that we need to move those things forward. But the M&A window isn't that open right now for valuation, availability and regulatory regime.

我們的併購方法必鬚髮展，因為就任何規模的收購候選人而言，我們行業的供應量並不多，而且監管環境也在發生一些變化。所以我們正在改變它，我們說，好吧，我們仍然有我們的基準戰略，21 世紀戰爭是我們需要與客戶一起結束的地方。我們希望部分通過收購來實現這一目標，例如 Aerojet Rocketdyne 和 i3，主要是在物理世界中獲得推動這些事情向前發展所需的技術。但就估值、可用性和監管制度而言，併購窗口目前並沒有那麼開放。

So we're just being and doing the things that you have to do when you're running an actual business in the real world, which is being agile. The one thing I want to add to that because there may be some misconception about, Ron, thank you for the question, by the way, it opens up. I want to make absolutely clear that our M&A approach does not and has not included the acquisition of major commercial technology or telecom companies. We're not trying to become that. We want to use their IP, their people to accelerate that kind of technology, that digital technology into our world.

所以我們只是在做你在現實世界中經營實際業務時必須做的事情，這就是敏捷。我想補充一點，因為可能會有一些誤解，羅恩，謝謝你提出這個問題，順便說一句，它打開了。我想明確表示，我們的併購方法沒有也沒有包括收購主要的商業技術或電信公司。我們並不想成為那樣。我們想利用他們的 IP、他們的人員來加速那種技術，那種數字技術進入我們的世界。

So our approach is to partner with industry leaders in those spaces via commercial agreements, licensing, joint teaming and participation in standards bodies to accelerate those capabilities into our technology road maps. We have no intention of acquiring and merging with any of those major commercial sector companies. So yes, you got to be dynamic and agile when you run a business this big in the real world, and that's what we're up to, and we still have our target being the pathfinder towards 21st Century National Defense.

因此，我們的方法是通過商業協議、許可、聯合團隊和參與標準機構與這些領域的行業領導者合作，以加速將這些能力納入我們的技術路線圖。我們無意收購和合併任何這些主要商業部門的公司。所以是的，當你在現實世界中經營這麼大的企業時，你必須充滿活力和敏捷，這就是我們所做的，我們的目標仍然是成為 21 世紀國防的探路者。

And Ron, this is John. Just to pile on to what Jim said. He's done a very good job of articulating the strategy from an external perspective. But as a guy that's been with this company for over 30 years, what I most see and resonate with is how Jim is actively changing the culture across Lockheed Martin internally to embrace any kind of innovative technology despite where they come from. We've got a lot of really bright creative scientists and engineers, but we don't have to invent the solution to every single problem. And historically, we struggled with some level of not invented here, which is probably may come as no surprise to some of you.

羅恩，這是約翰。只是為了繼續 Jim 所說的話。他在從外部角度闡明戰略方面做得非常出色。但作為一個在這家公司工作了 30 多年的人，我最能看到並引起共鳴的是吉姆如何在內部積極改變洛克希德馬丁公司的文化，以接受任何類型的創新技術，無論它們來自哪裡。我們有很多非常聰明、有創造力的科學家和工程師，但我們不必為每一個問題都發明解決方案。從歷史上看，我們在某種程度上沒有在這裡發明過，這對你們中的一些人來說可能並不奇怪。

So what Jim has been stressing and our team is getting is we need to identify and partner with whoever does have the best solution in an industry agnostic manner. And I think we're doing a pretty good job of that in our Ventures investment fund where we're going to startups and seeing the art of the possible, we're starting to get pull demand from the business areas for some of these technologies, which I personally view is a huge step in the right direction. And he's driving that mindset, the openness to technology across the entire R&D and engineering community. So I haven't seen a change, and I appreciate the direction from an internal perspective.

因此，Jim 一直強調並且我們的團隊得到的是，我們需要以與行業無關的方式識別並與任何擁有最佳解決方案的人合作。而且我認為我們在我們的風險投資基金中做得很好，我們將去初創公司並看到可能的藝術，我們開始從業務領域獲得對其中一些技術的拉動需求，我個人認為這是朝著正確方向邁出的一大步。他正在推動這種心態，即整個研發和工程社區對技術的開放態度。所以我沒有看到變化，我從內部角度欣賞這個方向。

(Operator Instructions) And next, we will go to the line of Myles Walton with UBS.

（操作員說明）接下來，我們將通過 UBS 訪問 Myles Walton。

I think certainly, the markets -- looking at the '22 cash guide in particular. And John, I just want to clarify something. So the $1.5 billion of supplier advances that you mentioned you hadn't planned on -- Are those net from -- in other words, are you suggesting that the prior guidance included 0 now it's $1.5 billion. And so pro forma of the prior -- the move from the prior guidance is operationally towards $9.9 billion?

我認為肯定是市場——尤其是 22 年的現金指南。約翰，我只想澄清一些事情。因此，您提到的 15 億美元的供應商預付款是您沒有計劃的 - 那些淨額來自 - 換句話說，您是否建議先前的指導包括 0 現在是 15 億美元。因此，先前的備考——從先前的指導在操作上向 99 億美元的轉變？

Correct, correct. Yes...

正確，正確。是的...

So then it's '23 $9.9 billion?

那麼它是 23 年的 99 億美元？

So let me make sure we're track. And the prior guide was $8.9 billion and $9 billion. Today we're doing $8.3 billion and $8.4 billion. And in that $8.4 billion is a $1.5 billion that was not there. So we're up $300 million. I'm telling you today, our $8.4 billion is going to be higher -- will be higher than $8.4 billion in 2023. We -- depending on how much we still have to accelerate in 2023, that number can be anywhere from $1 billion higher to $100 million higher or $200 million higher. So the punchline is, if you think about the 2 years '22 -- '21 and '22 were ahead, depending on the outcome of where COVID is in either '22 or '23 could be equal to or slightly behind the prior multiyear guidance, if that makes sense.

所以讓我確保我們的軌道。之前的指南是 89 億美元和 90 億美元。今天我們做了 83 億美元和 84 億美元。在這 84 億美元中，有 15 億美元不存在。所以我們增加了 3 億美元。我今天告訴你，我們的 84 億美元將會更高——到 2023 年將高於 84 億美元。我們——取決於 2023 年我們還需要加速多少，這個數字可能會高出 10 億美元增加 1 億美元或增加 2 億美元。所以重點是，如果你考慮 22 年 - 21 年和 22 年領先，取決於 COVID 在 22 年或 23 年的結果可能等於或略低於之前的多年指導，如果這是有道理的。

It does. But I guess the other question is these are advances, they presumably rotate back to you. So that's why I'm asking about '23 and beyond would be necessarily higher than...

確實如此。但我想另一個問題是這些是預付款，它們可能會轉回給您。所以這就是為什麼我要問 23 歲及以後的人數必然高於...

So you don't get the full benefit of $1.5 billion because there's a rolling -- roll off, if you will, quarter-to-quarter as you go through the year. So there's some subset of that, as John is saying, depending when the music stops, we'll be able to then elevate the cash flow we report because we didn't do a quarter or 2 of the typical flow-throughs to the supply chain. That going to be the whole year.

因此，您無法獲得 15 億美元的全部收益，因為如果您願意的話，在一年中每季度都會滾動。因此，正如約翰所說，其中有一些子集，取決於音樂何時停止，我們將能夠提高我們報告的現金流量，因為我們沒有對供應進行四分之一或 2 個典型的流通鏈。這將是一整年。

Yes. So just to make sure we're on 100% the same baseline. The old guidance was $8.9 billion, $9 billion and $9.1 billion. Today, let's just use as a baseline $8.3 billion, $8.4 billion and $8.5 billion, that's down $1.8 billion. And if we're at $8.5 billion, we've got over $1 billion of assumed advances at the end of 2023. So you could say notionally, where we're sitting here today, over the 3-year period, we're down $800 million, and some of that is driven by what I have now assumed in terms of we have an internal term. It's funding that we -- or authorization spending we do in advance of contract turn ons based on history, there is a high likelihood that some of these programs when they shift from development to production, the customer funding profiles aren't going to align with need dates. We are anticipating that we will be carrying a substantial amount of costs associated with that transition.

是的。因此，只是為了確保我們處於 100% 相同的基線上。舊的指引分別為 89 億美元、90 億美元和 91 億美元。今天，我們只使用 83 億美元、84 億美元和 85 億美元作為基準，減少了 18 億美元。如果我們達到 85 億美元，到 2023 年底我們將獲得超過 10 億美元的假定預付款。所以你可以說理論上，我們今天坐在這裡，在 3 年期間，我們下降了8 億美元，其中一些是由我現在假設的我們有一個內部條款驅動的。這是我們的資金 - 或者我們根據歷史在合同開啟之前進行的授權支出，其中一些程序很可能在從開發轉向生產時，客戶資金概況不會與需要日期。我們預計我們將承擔與該過渡相關的大量成本。

Our next question is from Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 和 Cowen。

Yes. So Jim, I'm a little confused with the kind of capital deployment you talk about spending an incremental amount in terms of IR&D, you're going to increase the dividend. You have less CAS recovery. You talk of $6.6 billion of stock repurchase. But if you do AJRD, you can't do any stock repurchase unless you really balloon up the balance sheet. So what kind of a balance sheet, a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio are you looking for over this period?

是的。所以吉姆，我對你所說的在 IR&D 方面增加支出的那種資本配置感到有點困惑，你會增加股息。您的 CAS 恢復較少。你談到 66 億美元的股票回購。但如果你做 AJRD，除非你真的膨脹資產負債表，否則你不能做任何股票回購。那麼，您在此期間尋找什麼樣的資產負債表，即淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率？

Cai, it's John. I'll take that. If you look at our operating cash flow and free cash flow, our net debt retirements over the -- I'll stick to the first 3 years of the plan. Our excess cash balances would allow us to do the $6 billion we're talking about and still have enough liquidity to run the business. So that's point one. This $6 billion is just deploying what would otherwise have been set in my bank account earning 25 basis points. That's point one.

蔡，是約翰。我會接受的。如果你看看我們的運營現金流和自由現金流，我們的淨債務退休——我會堅持計劃的前 3 年。我們多餘的現金餘額將使我們能夠完成我們正在談論的 60 億美元，並且仍然有足夠的流動性來經營業務。所以這是第一點。這 60 億美元只是在部署我的銀行賬戶中本來可以賺取 25 個基點的資金。這是第一點。

Point two, with AJRD, our original expectation was we would probably finance, call it, $3 billion of the $4.5 billion and use cash for the other $1.5 billion. I'm leaning now towards, especially given how low financing rates are maybe financing the entire acquisition. But kind of more broadly, the way I think about acquisitions, and I know Jim and I are absolutely in a 100% violent agreement on this, if you can find M&A that has the right operational fit, the right culture fit and the right strategic fit, M&A pays for itself.

第二點，對於 AJRD，我們最初的預期是我們可能會為 45 億美元中的 30 億美元提供資金，並使用現金支付另外 15 億美元。我現在傾向於，特別是考慮到低融資利率可能為整個收購提供資金。但更廣泛地說，我對收購的看法，我知道吉姆和我絕對 100% 同意這一點，如果你能找到具有正確運營契合、正確文化契合和正確戰略的併購適合，併購是收回成本的。

I mean it's free, you have to finance them upfront. But if it's a good deal, you're going to get your money back very quickly. So I view like Jim does M&A is not a drain on your balance sheet. Our balance sheet, as you know, is single A. Our metrics would support a higher rating where A minus for the 2 to do, use the A minus scale. Conversations I've been having was it's hard to justify why we're an A minus instead of a flat -- The punchline is we've got a tremendous amount of firepower. If, as Jim talked about, the discipline and dynamic capital allocation process says we need to put additional resources in here, there or wherever, we're going to have the ability to do that.

我的意思是它是免費的，你必須預先資助他們。但如果這筆交易很划算，您將很快收回您的錢。所以我認為像吉姆那樣，併購不會耗盡你的資產負債表。如您所知，我們的資產負債表是單一的 A。我們的指標將支持更高的評級，其中 A 減去 2 做，使用 A 減量表。我一直在談論的是，很難證明為什麼我們的成績是 A 負而不是平——重點是我們擁有巨大的火力。如果，正如吉姆所說，紀律和動態資本分配過程表明我們需要在這裡、那里或任何地方投入額外的資源，我們將有能力做到這一點。

And from a leverage perspective, Cai, we've got upside. I mean, we're -- we've got a strong balance sheet. I really tried to emphasize in the prepared remarks that we see tremendous value and share repurchase at these pricing levels. We will go to the capital markets to get the resources to make the smartest capital allocation at that point in time and we'll manage the leverage as we go. And we can do it all. Everything you said, we can do it all and maintain a reasonable leverage ratio, I believe, and a strong credit rate. I also -- John also believes.

從槓桿的角度來看，蔡，我們有上行空間。我的意思是，我們 - 我們擁有強大的資產負債表。我真的試圖在準備好的評論中強調，在這些定價水平上，我們看到了巨大的價值和股票回購。我們將前往資本市場獲取資源，以便在那個時間點進行最明智的資本配置，並在進行過程中管理槓桿。我們可以做到這一切。你說的一切，我們都能做到，我相信，保持合理的槓桿率和強勁的信貸利率。我也——約翰也相信。

Our next question is from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

I guess I'm still trying to better understand how much of the growth projection shortfall versus what the market was looking for is end market versus Lockheed programs. And I know, Jim, you kind of talked about there being multiple puts and takes. But ex AWE, I guess, you're saying a few years of flat revenue to up low single-digit growth. What do you assume -- are you assuming that's what outlays are doing, putting the '22 authorization specifically aside? Is that what you're assuming outlays are doing? Are you assuming you're worse than outlays? And then specifically at MFC, what's happened at MFC? Because at 1 point, the growth rate was high, the company was saying, good growth was sustainable that there was really just capital and supply constraints. Now it's down in the quarter and you're saying it's down next year. So that seems to have changed a decent amount.

我想我仍在努力更好地了解增長預測的不足與市場正在尋找的是終端市場與洛克希德計劃。而且我知道，吉姆，你有點談到有多個投入和投入。但我猜，在 AWE 之前，你是說幾年的收入持平到低個位數的增長。你假設什麼 - 你假設這就是支出正在做的事情，將 '22 授權放在一邊嗎？那是你假設支出正在做的事情嗎？你假設你比支出更糟糕嗎？然後特別是在 MFC，MFC 發生了什麼？因為在 1 點，增長率很高，公司說，良好的增長是可持續的，實際上只有資本和供應限制。現在它在本季度下降，你說它明年下降。所以這似乎已經改變了很多。

Noah, it's John. I'll take the question. The -- I would characterize the '21 to '22 headwinds as maybe being unique to us in some regards, although companies have a lot of exposure or had a lot of exposure to Afghanistan, for example, they may have similar headwinds. But I'd say the '21 to '22 headwinds are maybe confined to us. But the out-year growth, I think when I looked at the last track on the President's budget, the growth rate was like 2% a year. Out -- for government fiscal year '23, '24, '25 and out. I see that as a center point again, if we're able though to prevail in competition, I see a path for us to grow faster than that rate. We need to perform on our programs. We need to deliver helicopters and airplanes on our committed schedules. And if we do that, I see upside to the 2% growth that's in the President's budget.

諾亞，是約翰。我來回答這個問題。 - 我認為'21到'22的逆風在某些方面可能對我們來說是獨一無二的，儘管公司有很多風險敞口或對阿富汗有很多風險，例如，他們可能有類似的逆風。但我想說 21 到 22 年的逆風可能僅限於我們。但是年外增長，我想當我查看總統預算的最後一條軌道時，增長率大約是每年 2%。出局——政府財政年度 '23、'24、'25 和出局。我再次將其視為中心點，如果我們能夠在競爭中取勝，我會看到一條讓我們增長得更快的道路。我們需要執行我們的程序。我們需要按照承諾的時間表交付直升機和飛機。如果我們這樣做，我看到總統預算中 2% 的增長有上升空間。

It's an MFC more specifically, Noah, there -- the PAC-3 production is going to go up, and we've been investing in that capacity, as you know. But it's going to go up a couple of hundred million dollars. And then again, if you do puts and takes that special ops logistics support program itself was doing quite better. So in MFC, just that 1 program takes away all the PAC-3 growth year-over-year into '22. And then we had probably not as well known, but for MFC a significant cancellation in the U.K. There's a Warrior armored vehicle program that was canceled by the U.K. government, and that was another $100 million downdraft.

更具體地說，它是一個 MFC，Noah，那裡——PAC-3 的產量將會增加，我們一直在投資這種能力，正如你所知。但它會增加幾億美元。再說一次，如果你確實採取行動，特別行動後勤支持計劃本身就做得更好。所以在 MFC 中，僅 1 個程序就將 PAC-3 的所有同比增長都帶走了到 22 年。然後我們可能不太為人所知，但對於 MFC，在英國有一個重大取消。英國政府取消了一個 Warrior 裝甲車計劃，這是另外 1 億美元的縮水。

And then that is sort of tailing off a little bit too now in production rates, not much but another $100 million. So you really have to dig into the details in each BA to see why '21, '22, '23 effects are happening. But we really are focusing on 23 -- 2023 plus, so to speak or beyond 2023 because all of these programmatic effects will be known by then. We've got those 4 big areas where we assume and expect that there's going to be material upside. We'll understand that way better at that point.

然後現在生產率也有點下降，不多，但又增加了 1 億美元。所以你真的必須深入研究每個 BA 的細節，看看為什麼會發生 '21、'22、'23 效應。但我們真正關注的是 23 - 2023 年以上，可以說或超過 2023 年，因為到那時所有這些計劃效果都會知道。我們有這 4 個大領域，我們假設並預計會有實質性的上行空間。到那時我們會更好地理解這種方式。

And then we'll have some of those new starts that we -- if the competition stay on time, we may know some decisions in those 2. So yes, there's going to be some puts and takes of Lockheed Martin specific in the next couple of years, but we're positioning ourselves to weather this period and get through with a lower share count materially, I think, lower share count by the end of it. And then a growth vector that has an inclination to it post 2023. And that's really -- our overall financial strategy is to work the share count, reward shareholders along the way and then an inflection point in growth is what we're aiming for. That's our goal.

然後我們將有一些新的開始，我們 - 如果比賽按時進行，我們可能會知道這兩個中的一些決定。所以是的，在接下來的幾對中，洛克希德馬丁公司將有一些特定的投入和投入多年，但我們正在定位自己以度過這段時期，並在實質上減少股票數量，我認為，在它結束時減少股票數量。然後是一個在 2023 年後傾向於它的增長向量。這真的是——我們的整體財務戰略是計算股票數量，一路獎勵股東，然後增長的拐點就是我們的目標。這就是我們的目標。

Our next question is from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe just a follow-up on Noah's question. If we could talk about the shorter-term 2022 and 2023 because I do think that's what investors are focused on. What could be the potential element of upside surprise? You guys mentioned $8.5 billion of the portfolio is focused on growing programs like CH-53K and PAC-3. Is that what would -- we would look to? Or are there other elements that come in?

也許只是對諾亞問題的跟進。如果我們可以談談較短期的 2022 年和 2023 年，因為我確實認為這是投資者關注的焦點。意外上行的潛在因素是什麼？你們提到了 85 億美元的投資組合專注於 CH-53K 和 PAC-3 等不斷發展的項目。這就是我們想要的嗎？還是有其他元素進來？

Yes. Thanks, Sheila. I think it's growth and opportunities across the big 4 categories that Jim has articulated, A lot of our potential upside in 2023 is going to come from programs that are right now and operational testing, assuming they're able to achieve success through that -- those test programs, they are going to migrate into production. That's -- in the period where you still have an overlap between development and production, that's where you're going to start seeing some bulge.

是的。謝謝，希拉。我認為這是 Jim 闡明的四大類別的增長和機遇，我們在 2023 年的許多潛在優勢將來自當前的計劃和運營測試，假設他們能夠通過這些取得成功——那些測試程序，他們將遷移到生產環境中。那就是——在開發和生產之間仍然存在重疊的時期，那就是你將開始看到一些膨脹的地方。

And that kind of transition ties into the discussion -- probably through extended discussion I had with Miles about if you look out to 2023 or you cume the 3 years, why you're slightly down from the last guide. I think we're going to be successful. We're going to need to bridge those programs to maintain their critical schedules. So we're going to carry a financial backstop against them.

這種轉變與討論有關——可能是通過我與 Miles 的擴展討論，關於如果你展望 2023 年或計算 3 年，為什麼你比上一個指南略有下降。我認為我們會成功的。我們將需要連接這些程序以維持它們的關鍵時間表。因此，我們將為他們提供財務支持。

But there is absolutely no doubt the growth is going to come out of hypersonics, classified and growth in the programs of record. I mean Jim mentioned PAC-3 growing $200 million going from '21 to '22. In '21, we're going to deliver 350 ramps. We're going to be delivering 500 ramps in 2023 and 550 ramps in 2025. So PAC-3 growth is going to be very strong in that period of time and CH-53K really starts levering. And if we -- when we prevail on the future vertical lift programs, you will see an inflection point as well.

但毫無疑問，增長將來自超音速、機密和記錄項目的增長。我的意思是吉姆提到 PAC-3 從 21 年到 22 年增長了 2 億美元。在 21 年，我們將交付 350 個坡道。我們將在 2023 年交付 500 個坡道，在 2025 年交付 550 個坡道。因此 PAC-3 的增長將在這段時間內非常強勁，CH-53K 真正開始發揮作用。如果我們——當我們在未來的垂直提升計劃中獲勝時，你也會看到一個拐點。

Next, we'll go to Doug Harned with Bernstein.

接下來，我們將與伯恩斯坦一起去道格·哈內德。

I wanted to really go to 2 issues that I think are related. In talking about strategy and in the past, we've talked about JADC2 and a lot of the things you're thinking about long term, which I think of as important as platforms may be, is much more about systems, processing, software, sensors, comms and so forth in integration. But when I look at where F-35 is today, 1 of the big challenges there is an integration program, and it's been Tech Refresh 3 that I think by any measure, has not gone the way it has been hoped.

我真的想談談我認為相關的兩個問題。在談論戰略時，在過去，我們談到了 JADC2 以及許多你正在考慮的長期問題，我認為這些問題與平台一樣重要，更多的是關於系統、處理、軟件，傳感器、通信等集成。但是當我看看 F-35 今天的情況時，其中一個最大的挑戰是集成計劃，而且我認為無論以何種標準衡量，Tech Refresh 3 都沒有達到預期的效果。

Can you talk about where Tech Refresh 3, the move to Block 4 stands today, what risks that may pose for F-35 rates going forward. But then also, if you extrapolate that. And if I am to think about doing broader systems architectures across domains, how do I get confident that the integration capabilities you have are the best to deliver on that. So it's the combination of both the F-35 situation and taking that to a long-term strategy.

你能談談 Tech Refresh 3、Block 4 的進展情況，以及 F-35 未來可能帶來的風險嗎？但是，如果你推斷的話。而且，如果我要考慮跨域構建更廣泛的系統架構，我如何才能確信您擁有的集成能力是實現這一目標的最佳選擇。因此，這是 F-35 情況和將其納入長期戰略的結合。

Sure, Doug. It's Jim. So I'll start with TR3, which is -- I'd suggest a microcosm of the larger picture, but an important one. TR3 gives you and -- and I used to fly these jets, similar ones at least. It gives you a better cockpit display, more processing for data in the airplane and more data storage in the airplane. All good things for a 21st century warfare. Although they are not essential to be getting the journey into networking that jet more closely with other systems and other platforms. So we are doing those 2 things in parallel because I think they're independent.

當然，道格。是吉姆。所以我將從 TR3 開始，它是——我建議一個更大的圖景的縮影，但它是一個重要的圖景。 TR3 給你——我曾經駕駛過這些噴氣式飛機，至少是類似的。它為您提供更好的駕駛艙顯示、更多的飛機數據處理和更多的飛機數據存儲。 21 世紀戰爭的所有好事。儘管它們對於進入與其他系統和其他平台更緊密地連接的網絡來說並不是必不可少的。所以我們同時做這兩件事，因為我認為它們是獨立的。

TR3 has also been delayed a bit. We're working with the JPO. We feel we're on a common schedule now. We've got some significant supply chain issues that we've had to embed our own engineers into our suppliers to try to get them to perform. We're counting on them. That's important. But it's not going to turn or defer us from our goal of really developing the F-35 platform to be the aeronautic cornerstone of our architecture for 21st Century Warfare because, yes, once TR3 is in, it will take another leapfrog up in data storage and data processing capabilities and networking capabilities, which we will add.

TR3 也被推遲了一點。我們正在與 JPO 合作。我們覺得我們現在有一個共同的時間表。我們遇到了一些重大的供應鏈問題，我們不得不將我們自己的工程師嵌入到我們的供應商中，以試圖讓他們執行。我們指望他們。這很重要。但這不會改變或推遲我們真正將 F-35 平台開發為我們 21 世紀戰爭架構的航空基石的目標，因為，是的，一旦 TR3 進入，它將在數據存儲方面實現又一次飛躍以及我們將添加的數據處理能力和網絡能力。

But we're already demonstrating how to do that with a hybrid base station that we actually fly in a U-2 that provides that connectivity today with the Tech Refresh 2 equipment on the jet. So these things are related, but not differential or coterminous. They don't be coterminous. We will get both of these jobs done. And in the broader program here, what we've I think derived by working with our government customers so far and understanding contracts and things is that there won't be a overarching JADC2C2 of any kind. What there will be is in reality in this business, and I think in our customer construct, is that technology road map and this has been developed more since maybe the last time you and I talked about this, Doug.

但是我們已經在演示如何使用混合基站來實現這一點，我們實際上是在 U-2 飛機上飛行的，它提供了今天與噴氣式飛機上的 Tech Refresh 2 設備的連接。所以這些東西是相關的，但不是不同的或連續的。它們不是相鄰的。我們將完成這兩項工作。在這裡更廣泛的計劃中，我認為通過迄今為止與我們的政府客戶合作並了解合同和事情得出的結論是，不會有任何類型的包羅萬象的 JADC2C2。在這項業務中，我認為在我們的客戶結構中，現實中將會有技術路線圖，而且自從你和我上次談論這個以來，它已經得到了更多發展，道格。

But is going to be a technology road map, which is platform-by-platform connectivity using an open architecture set of standards and protocols that the whole industry could share. And we're going to be doing that one stage at a time. And what I want to do and I have to talk to our customers about at the most senior level is to provide every 6 to 12 months a mission capability by implementing this technology road map, mission by mission.

但這將是一個技術路線圖，它是使用整個行業可以共享的開放架構標準和協議集的逐平台連接。我們將一次一個階段地進行。我想做的，我必須在最高級別與我們的客戶討論的是，通過逐個任務地實施此技術路線圖，每 6 到 12 個月提供一次任務能力。

Now we've got 14 missions and we've got 14 technologies coincidentally, that we have completed 3 of those missions, which happened to be counterair surface warfare and integrated air and missile defense. We're showing customers those road maps and getting feedback on what platforms we should be tying together first and getting those sensors decision-making command and control systems and actual effectors connected in the most optimal way every 6 to 12 months. So we're moving out on both fronts. TR3 is, again, associated, but not essential for moving out on the 21st Century Warfare front.

現在我們有 14 個任務，巧合的是我們有 14 個技術，我們已經完成了其中 3 個任務，這些任務恰好是防空地面戰和綜合防空和導彈防禦。我們向客戶展示這些路線圖，並就我們應該首先連接哪些平台獲得反饋，並讓這些傳感器決策指揮和控制系統以及每 6 到 12 個月以最佳方式連接實際效應器。所以我們在兩個方面都在前進。 TR3 再次與 21 世紀戰爭前線相關聯，但不是必不可少的。

Thank you, John. I think we've got a little over our normal time, but there's been outstanding conversation today. I think at this time, I'll turn it over to Jim for some closing remarks.

謝謝你，約翰。我想我們的談話比平時稍微多了一些，但今天的談話非常精彩。我想在這個時候，我會把它交給 Jim 做一些結束語。

Sure, Greg. As I conclude the call today, I want to end by reinforcing our commitment to delivering long-term value to our shareholders here. While using our strong cash flow and robust balance sheet to do so, we are not shy about leverage. We're not shy about moving out with speed and with scale, as we've talked about. Similarly, and again, along the way, we're going to work hard and invest and advance our customers' important missions along the way. Those numbers that John threw around $2 billion of CapEx and $1.5 billion of IR&D, they're not incremental. They are up from our kind of recent history, but they are not an incremental $2 billion and an incremental $1.5 billion, just to be clear on that.

當然，格雷格。在我結束今天的電話會議時，我想通過強調我們為這裡的股東提供長期價值的承諾來結束。在利用我們強大的現金流和穩健的資產負債表這樣做的同時，我們並不迴避槓桿。正如我們所討論的那樣，我們並不羞於以速度和規模向外發展。同樣，在此過程中，我們將再次努力工作，投資並推進客戶的重要使命。約翰投入了大約 20 億美元的資本支出和 15 億美元的 IR&D 的那些數字，它們不是增量的。它們來自我們最近的歷史，但它們不是增加 20 億美元，也不是增加 15 億美元，只是要明確這一點。

So I just want to make sure everybody knows our approach here. We're going to be positioning ourselves for a growth inflection that we hope and expect to see a couple of years down the road. And by doing the share repurchase at the scale we're discussing and the time frame we're looking at, the per share valuation -- value of that growth inflection should be amplified. That's our goal here. And thanks again to all of you for joining us on this call today. We look forward to speaking with you on our next earnings call in January. Thanks a lot.

所以我只想確保每個人都知道我們的方法。我們將為自己希望並期望在未來幾年看到的增長拐點做好準備。通過以我們正在討論的規模和我們正在研究的時間框架進行股票回購，每股估值——增長拐點的價值應該被放大。這就是我們的目標。再次感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我們期待在 1 月份的下一次財報電話會議上與您交談。多謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。