林德集團 (LIN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Linde first quarter 2025 earnings call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.

女士們、先生們，大家好，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加林德 2025 年第一季財報電話會議及網路廣播。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。演講者演講結束後，將有問答環節。

I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Juan Pelaez, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Juan Pelaez 先生。先生，請繼續。

Hi. Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for attending our 2025 first quarter earnings call webcast. I'm Juan Pelaez, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined this morning by Sanjiv Lamba, Chief Executive Officer, and Matt White, Chief Financial Officer.

你好。謝謝。大家早安，感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議網路直播。我是投資者關係主管 Juan Pelaez，今天上午與我一起參加會議的還有執行長 Sanjiv Lamba 和財務長 Matt White。

Today's presentation materials are on our website at the linde.com in the investor section. Please read the forward-looking statement disclosure on page 2 of the slides and note that it applies to all statements made during this talk conference.

今天的演示材料可以在我們網站 linde.com 的投資者部分找到。請閱讀投影片第 2 頁的前瞻性聲明揭露，並注意它適用於本次談話會議期間所發表的所有聲明。

The reconciliation of the adjusted numbers are in the appendix to this presentation. Sanjiv will provide some opening remarks, and then Matt will give an update on Linde's first quarter financial performance and outlook, after which we will wrap up with Q&A.

調整後的數字的對帳在本簡報的附錄。Sanjiv 將致開場白，然後 Matt 將介紹林德第一季的財務業績和前景，之後我們將進行問答。

Let me now turn the call over to Sanjiv.

現在讓我把電話轉給 Sanjiv。

Thanks Juan and very good morning, everyone. Last quarter, we took a fairly cautious view on the economy and unfortunately things mostly played out as anticipated. Yet despite those advents, Linde employees once again delivered resilient results by growing APS XFX by 8%, expanding operating margins 120 basis points to 30.1%, and maintaining industry leading ROC at 25.7%. It's during volatile and uncertain times like today, when the Linde operating model truly stands out.

謝謝胡安，大家早安。上個季度，我們對經濟持相當謹慎的看法，不幸的是，事情基本上按照預期發展。然而，儘管出現這些情況，林德員工再次取得了穩健的業績，使 APS XFX 增長了 8%，營業利潤率提高了 120 個基點至 30.1%，並保持了行業領先的 ROC 25.7%。正是在當今這種動盪和不確定的時期，林德的營運模式才真正脫穎而出。

To demonstrate that, slide 3 provides an overview of the defensive nature of our business. Some. Of you may recall this slide. That is because we presented a version of it in April 2020. Another period when financial markets were gripped with fear and uncertainty. Linde managed through a challenging 2020 and demonstrated its resiliency by growing EPS 12% that year.

為了證明這一點，投影片 3 概述了我們業務的防禦性質。一些。你們可能還記得這張投影片。這是因為我們在 2020 年 4 月推出了它的一個版本。金融市場又陷入恐懼和不確定性的時期。林德度過了充滿挑戰的 2020 年，並透過當年每股收益成長 12% 展現了其韌性。

And I fully expect this defensiveness to be on display for 2025 and beyond. Now we define defensive sales as businesses which contain at least one of the three categories. The first category represents resilient end markets that tend to be independent of economic trends, such as healthcare, electronics, or food and beverage.

我完全相信這種防禦性將在 2025 年及以後得到體現。現在我們將防禦性銷售定義為包含至少三類之一的業務。第一類代表具有彈性的終端市場，這些市場往往不受經濟趨勢的影響，例如醫療保健、電子產品或食品和飲料。

Over the last few decades, we have found these end markets remain quite stable, even during the most challenging periods, but also offering nice opportunities for growth throughout various economic cycles. The second category represents on-site customers from any end market, who pay fixed facility fees that are independent of volumes. These fees are contractually required to recover a capital investment and a part of virtually every on-site agreement.

在過去的幾十年裡，我們發現這些終端市場即使在最具挑戰性的時期也保持相當穩定，同時也為各個經濟週期提供了良好的成長機會。第二類代表來自任何終端市場的現場客戶，他們支付與數量無關的固定設施費用。這些費用是合約要求收取的，用於收回資本投資，並且是幾乎每項現場協議的一部分。

This structure gives us significant earning stability, which has been proven during the most difficult times. And the final category relates to rental payments on our own assets such as tanks, cylinders, and equipment. Although the asset network requires upfront capital outlay, the contractual rental fees help recover the initial investment regardless of gas consumption.

這種結構為我們帶來了顯著的收入穩定性，這在最困難的時期已經得到了證實。最後一類涉及我們自己的資產（例如儲罐、氣瓶和設備）的租賃支付。儘管資產網路需要前期資本支出，但無論天然氣消耗量如何，合約租賃費都有助於收回初始投資。

Individually, these categories have proven to provide resilient revenues and cash flow, underpinned by a dense supply networks around the world, especially during times of economic stress. So the dark blue shading on the slide represents these three defensive categories, which together account for almost two-thirds of global gas sales.

事實證明，這些類別能夠提供穩定的收入和現金流，這要歸功於遍布全球的密集供應網絡，尤其是在經濟困難時期。幻燈片上的深藍色陰影代表這三個防禦性類別，它們合計佔全球天然氣銷售的近三分之二。

Additionally, this split is almost identical in every segment for the reinforcing the consistency of our business model in every geography. And this is ultimately validated by the chart on the right, showing a 12% EPS compound annual growth rate over the last three decades.

此外，這種劃分在每個細分市場中幾乎都是相同的，以加強我們在每個地區的業務模式的一致性。右側的圖表最終驗證了這一點，顯示過去三十年的每股盈餘複合年增長率為 12%。

Overall, the model has proven itself and stood the deaths of time. And I don't see that changing anytime soon. But looking at the current environment, we're seeing more negative than positive developments. So it may be helpful if I can provide some color on the first quarter trends by segment.

總體而言，該模型已經證明了自己並且經受住了時間的考驗。而我認為這種情況短期內不會改變。但縱觀當前環境，我們看到的消極發展多於積極的發展。因此，如果我能按細分市場提供一些第一季度趨勢的詳細信息，可能會有所幫助。

Starting in APAC, China trends have remained consistent when adjusting for seasonally weaker Q1. We're still seeing strength in battery and electronics, although rare gases and helium prices remained lower than prior year.

從亞太地區開始，在調整第一季季節性疲軟的影響後，中國趨勢依然保持一致。儘管稀有氣體和氦氣價格仍低於去年，但我們仍然看到電池和電子產品的強勁表現。

Regarding the industrial and markets, we continue to seeing softness across most, although our customers are primarily tier 1 producers and thus have been much more stable. Courier is mostly tied to the electronic sector.

就工業和市場而言，我們繼續看到大多數行業表現疲軟，儘管我們的客戶主要是一級生產商，因此更加穩定。快遞主要與電子領域相關。

And our largest customer there recently announced further expansion resulting in a new project info. Australia has seen regional manufacturing trends directly impacting package gas volumes, while India on the other hand, remains one of the better growth regions globally.

我們最大的客戶最近宣布進一步擴張，並發布了新的專案資訊。澳洲的區域製造業趨勢直接影響包裝氣體的銷售量，另一方面，印度仍是全球成長較好的地區之一。

Moving to EMEA, we have not seen any meaningful improvement in industrial activity, despite some of the recent positive news regarding increased government spending. However, I'm encouraged by the more pragmatic discussions around decarbonization, which could help accelerate potential growth opportunities.

轉向歐洲、中東和非洲地區，儘管最近有一些關於增加政府支出的正面消息，但我們並未看到工業活動有任何有意義的改善。然而，有關脫碳的更務實的討論令我感到鼓舞，這可能有助於加速潛在的成長機會。

Furthermore, they're very well positioned for any economic recovery or increased infrastructure spending. The American segment has been more of a mixed bag. On one hand, Canada and US package gases are seeing some weakness from manufacturing uncertainty. On the other hand, US bulk, not Latin America volumes continue to grow low to mid-single digit percent.

此外，他們已經為任何經濟復甦或增加基礎設施支出做好了充分準備。美國市場的情況則好壞參半。一方面，加拿大和美國的包裝氣體因製造業的不確定性而出現一些疲軟。另一方面，美國散貨量（而非拉丁美洲）繼續以低至中個位數百分比成長。

America's has the highest segment price increase at 3%, reflecting the inflationary pressure we see in this segment. I fully expect us to stay ahead of any inflationary pressure through a combination of contractual pricing clauses, as well as our productivity programs.

美國的細分市場價格漲幅最高，達 3%，反映出我們在該細分市場看到的通膨壓力。我完全相信我們能夠透過結合合約定價條款以及生產力計劃來應對任何通膨壓力。

The quarter ended with a strong backlog of $10 billion of which more than $7 billion is sale of gas projects, all underpinned by long-term contracts with secured returns, driving future growth. You may recall from our prior earnings call that project contribution is part of our EPS growth algorithm. And despite the uncertainty, I expect we will continue to announce new wins in the quarters ahead.

本季結束時，積壓訂單金額高達 100 億美元，其中超過 70 億美元為天然氣項目銷售，所有訂單均以有保障回報的長期合約為基礎，推動未來成長。您可能還記得我們先前的收益電話會議，專案貢獻是我們每股收益成長演算法的一部分。儘管存在不確定性，我預計我們將在未來幾季繼續宣布新的勝利。

In summary, the rapid changes in global trade policy are having a dampening effect on overall industrial activity. So I'd anticipate more volatility in end market trends until there is greater clarity and stability. And while no one could predict what will happen next week, let alone next quarter, I'm confident Linde will navigate the uncertainty by not only leveraging our operating rhythm to quickly adapt, but also continuing to deliver high quality growth.

總之，全球貿易政策的快速變化正在對整體工業活動產生抑製作用。因此，我預計終端市場趨勢將出現更多波動，直到市場變得更加清晰和穩定。雖然沒有人能夠預測下週會發生什麼，更不用說下個季度了，但我相信林德不僅會利用我們的營運節奏快速適應，而且還會繼續實現高品質的成長，從而應對不確定性。

I now turn the call over to Matt to walk through our financial results.

現在我將電話轉給馬特，讓他介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks. first quarter results can be found on slide 4. Sales of $8.1 billion were flat to the prior year and down 2% sequentially versus prior year, the foreign currency headwind was volatile, starting at 4%, but ending with 2% for an overall first quarter average of 3%.

謝謝。第一季的結果可以在投影片 4 上找到。81 億美元的銷售額與去年持平，比去年季減 2%，外匯逆風波動較大，開始時為 4%，但最終為 2%，第一季整體平均為 3%。

Costs passed through, increased 1% from higher natural gas pricing, but had minimal effect on profit. Net acquisitions contributed 1%, primarily from packaged gas tuck-ins in North America, as we continue to see attractive roll-up opportunities justified by cost synergies.

成本轉嫁，由於天然氣價格上漲而增加了 1%，但對利潤的影響卻微乎其微。淨收購貢獻了 1%，主要來自北美的包裝天然氣收購，因為我們繼續看到成本協同效應所證明的有吸引力的整合機會。

Excluding these items, underlying sales increased 1% from last year, as higher pricing was partially offset by lower volumes. Pricing tracked with globally weighted inflation everywhere except for APAC, which was impacted by lower prices in helium and rare gases.

除這些項目外，基本銷售量較去年同期增長了 1%，因為更高的定價被更低的銷售部分抵消了。除亞太地區外，其他地區的定價均與全球加權通膨保持一致，而亞太地區則受到氦氣和稀有氣體價格下跌的影響。

Volumes declined 1% as 2% lower base volumes were partially offset by contribution from the project backlog. As Sanjiv mentioned, industrial activity remains sluggish in most geographies and therefore has dragged down base volumes.

由於專案積壓的貢獻部分抵消了 2% 的基礎交易量下降，因此交易量下降了 1%。正如 Sanjiv 所提到的，大多數地區的工業活動仍然低迷，因此拖累了基礎產量。

Sequentially, underlying sales are down 1%, as higher pricing is more than offset by lower volumes. The lower volume is primarily driven by seasonal factors, especially in APAC. Although we did experience weaker trends in certain packaged gas markets, operating profit at $2.4 billion increased 4% and resulted in a margin of 30.1% or 120 basis points higher than prior year.

由於價格上漲被銷量下降所抵消，基本銷售額環比下降 1%。銷量下降主要是受季節性因素影響，尤其是在亞太地區。儘管我們在某些​​包裝氣體市場確實經歷了較弱的趨勢，但 24 億美元的營業利潤增長了 4%，利潤率達到 30.1%，即比上年高出 120 個基點。

All segments expanded operating margin as management actions and pricing and cost productivity more than compensated weaker base volumes. Despite the economic challenges, we expect management actions to continue to support profit growth and margin expansion.

由於管理措施、定價和成本生產力足以彌補較弱的基數銷量，所有部門的營業利潤率均有所擴大。儘管面臨經濟挑戰，我們預計管理措施將繼續支持利潤成長和利潤率擴大。

EPS of $3.95 was 5% over prior year or 8% when excluding the effects of currency translation. We finished the quarter at the top end of the guidance range due to slightly better FXs as benefits from cost and pricing actions were mostly offset by weaker volumes.

每股收益為 3.95 美元，比上年增長 5%，若不計貨幣換算的影響則增長 8%。由於成本和定價行動帶來的好處大部分被銷售下降所抵消，外匯表現略有好轉，我們在本季度的業績達到了預期範圍的最高點。

CapEx of $1.3 billion was equally split between base CapEx and project backlog. As a reminder, Linde has the most stringent project backlog definition in the industry, which requires incremental growth underpinned by fixed fees and contract clauses to protect the overall return.

13 億美元的資本支出平均分配給基礎資本支出和項目積壓。提醒一下，林德對專案積壓訂單的定義是業界最嚴格的，要求以固定費用和合約條款為基礎的增量成長來保護整體回報。

Base CapEx includes all other growth investments, not meeting our backlog definition as well as maintenance and replacement spent. The 58% increase in project CapEx supports the record $7 billion sale of gas backlog.

基本資本支出包括所有其他成長投資，不符合我們的積壓定義以及維護和更換支出。項目資本支出增加 58% 支持了創紀錄的 70 億美元天然氣積壓銷售。

We're actively constructing the two largest projects in our history. So I anticipate elevated levels for a few more quarters. Conversely, base CapEx has declined from lower volumes and productivity actions.

我們正在積極建立我們歷史上最大的兩個項目。因此我預計未來幾季的水平還會繼續上升。相反，由於產量和生產力下降，基本資本支出下降。

Slide 5 provides further details on quarterly capital management. The operating cash flow trend can be seen to the left, with the most recent quarter of $2.2 billion increasing 11% above last year. Note the first half is weaker due to seasonality of cash payment timing for interest, taxes, and incentives.

幻燈片 5 提供了有關季度資本管理的更多詳細資訊。左側可以看到經營現金流趨勢，最近一個季度的經營現金流為 22 億美元，比去年同期成長了 11%。請注意，由於利息、稅收和獎勵的現金支付時間的季節性，上半年表現較弱。

For 2025, I anticipate a similar trend as last year, discipline capital allocation is a hallmark of Wendy culture, and the pie chart to the right demonstrates the balance across investing into the business and returning capital to shareholders.

對於 2025 年，我預計會出現與去年類似的趨勢，嚴格的資本配置是溫蒂文化的標誌，右側的圓餅圖顯示了投資業務和向股東返還資本之間的平衡。

During the quarter, we raised the annual dividend by 8%, representing 32 straight years of dividend growth, with an average rate of 13%. We also repurchased $1.1 billion of stock, while reinvesting almost $1.3 billion back into the business. The steady capital allocation model is underpinned by quality credit metrics and access to low cost funding.

本季度，我們將年度股息提高了 8%，連續 32 年實現股息成長，平均成長率為 13%。我們也回購了價值 11 億美元的股票，同時將近 13 億美元重新投資於業務。穩定的資本配置模式以優質信貸指標和低成本融資為基礎。

As evidenced by our most recent 3% average bond coupon in uncertain and volatile times like today, having a fortress balance sheet is critical for not only maintaining stability, but also capitalizing on growth and share repurchase opportunities as they arise.

正如我們最近在當今這種不確定和動盪時期的 3% 平均債券票面利率所證明的那樣，擁有穩固的資產負債表不僅對於維持穩定至關重要，而且對於利用出現的成長和股票回購機會也至關重要。

I'll wrap up with a guidance update on slide 6. For second quarter, the EPS guidance range is $3.95 to $4.05. This represents 3% to 5% growth or 5% to 7% when excluding a 2% currency headwind. This range assumes recessionary conditions at the midpoint, translating to roughly 2% EPS headwind from lower volumes.

我將在第 6 張投影片上總結指導更新。第二季度，每股盈餘預期範圍為 3.95 美元至 4.05 美元。這意味著成長率為 3% 至 5%，若排除 2% 的貨幣逆風則為 5% 至 7%。該範圍假設中間點處於衰退狀態，這意味著較低的交易量將導致每股盈餘 (EPS) 下降約 2%。

Therefore, while the assumed FX headwind improved by 2%, we all accept that benefit with an equivalent volume contraction at the midpoint. Consistent with our normal approach, this is merely an economic placeholder based on current trends. If things are better, we'll perform better. And if worse, we'll take actions to mitigate.

因此，儘管假設的外匯逆風改善了 2%，但我們都接受這項好處，但中點的交易量會相應萎縮。與我們的正常做法一致，這只是基於當前趨勢的經濟佔位符。如果情況好轉，我們就會表現得更好。如果情況更糟，我們會採取措施緩解。

However, it's important to note this range still follows our long-term EPS profit algorithm with double digit percent growth from capital allocation and management actions partially offset by the current unfavorable economic impact, including currency translation.

然而，值得注意的是，這一範圍仍然遵循我們的長期每股盈餘利潤演算法，資本配置和管理行動帶來的兩位數百分比成長被當前不利的經濟影響（包括貨幣轉換）部分抵消。

The full year guide follows the same approach as Q2 resulting in an updated range of $16.20 to $16.50. FX improved by 2% but was offset by an equally negative volume assumption at the midpoint.

全年指南採用與第二季相同的方法，更新後的範圍為 16.20 美元至 16.50 美元。外匯交易量改善了 2%，但被中點同樣負面的交易量假設所抵銷。

All in, we're holding the original guidance midpoint, but are narrowing the range by a nickel on each end, due to less remaining quarters. Overall, we believe it's prudent to remain guarded in this environment.

總的來說，我們維持原來的指導中點，但由於剩餘季度較少，我們將範圍兩端各縮小 5 美分。整體而言，我們認為在這種環境下保持謹慎是明智之舉。

But do not mistake our prudence for complacency. We continue to manage the things within our control by taking proactive actions and adhering to our long-term proven capital allocation strategy.

但不要誤以為我們的謹慎就是自滿。我們繼續採取積極主動的行動並堅持我們長期有效的資本配置策略來管理我們所能控制的事情。

Additionally, we're leveraging our secure balance sheet and to capture opportunities that will position us for the future. And eventually the economy will recover, at which point Linde will be well opposition to benefit with 2021 being the most recent example.

此外，我們正在利用我們安全的資產負債表來抓住機遇，為未來做好準備。最終經濟將會復甦，屆時林德將獲得豐厚的利潤，2021 年就是最近的例子。

Until that time, investors can rest assured knowing that our employees will continue to exemplify the no excuses execution culture, which has been the bedrock of our long-term compound value creation.

在此之前，投資人可以放心，我們的員工將繼續體現「不找藉口」的執行文化，這是我們長期複合價值創造的基石。

I'm now turn the call over to Q&A.

我現在將電話轉入問答環節。

Thank you. And we'll now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Michael Leithead with Barclays.

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指示）巴克萊銀行的 Michael Leithead。

Great, thank you. Good morning, team. Question as it relates to your backlog, Dow recently announced the delay of its Alberta project. Linde is a partner on that. Can you speak to what impact you expect that to have on your associated project timing and startup or what contingencies Linde has to protect itself there?

太好了，謝謝。早安，各位團隊。與您的積壓工作相關的問題是，陶氏化學公司最近宣布推遲其阿爾伯塔計畫。林德 (Linde) 是該公司的合作夥伴。您能否談談您預計這會對相關專案的時間表和啟動產生什麼影響，或者林德需要採取哪些應急措施來保護自己？

Thanks, Mike. As you'd expect, most on-site contracts that we've had and continue to have built-in contractual protection for events such as delays driven by customers. So this is not new. It typically happens. There is a typical grace period beyond which we have. Our invoicing that starts and the customer starts paying, so this is going to be no different in terms of the contractual protection that we have on the contract. Obviously, having said that, we'll be working with Dow to look at alternatives and opportunities to see how we can help them meet their goals while maintaining Linde's interest in the project.

謝謝，麥克。正如您所期望的，我們現有的和繼續簽訂的大多數現場合約都內建了針對客戶造成的延誤等事件的合約保護。所以這並不是什麼新鮮事。這是經常發生的事。有一個典型的寬限期，超出這個寬限期我們就可以了。我們開始開立發票，客戶開始付款，因此就我們對合約的合約保護而言，這沒有什麼不同。顯然，話雖如此，我們將與陶氏合作尋找替代方案和機會，看看我們如何能夠幫助他們實現目標，同時保持林德對該計畫的興趣。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Hey, good morning. This is Steve Haynes for Vincent. Thank you for taking my question. The EBITDA margin performance was super robust in the quarter and I think this is kind of coming collectively. Even with your volumes down, high single digits over the last few years, can you help kind of help us think a little bit about like what the margin profile could look like once volume start to return eventually at some point?

嘿，早安。我是文森的史蒂夫·海恩斯。感謝您回答我的問題。本季的 EBITDA 利潤率表現非常強勁，我認為這是一種整體表現。即使你們的銷量在過去幾年中有所下降，僅為個位數，你能否幫助我們思考一下，一旦銷量最終在某個時候開始回升，利潤率狀況會是什麼樣子？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So the margins have been as a result of some very hard work done over that by that team over a period of time, and I think making sure things that we control pricing, productivity, get the attention that they deserve and are translated into results that reflect that margin number today.

因此，利潤率是該團隊在一段時間內付出大量努力的結果，我認為，我們要確保控制價格和生產力，得到應有的關注，並將其轉化為反映當前利潤率數字的結果。

Obviously, that's in the face of the volume kind of downside that you talked about our expectation is as volumes improve, those margins will continue to grow, which has been proven over time.

顯然，面對您談到的銷量下滑，我們的預期是，隨著銷量的提高，利潤率將繼續增長，這一點已經得到了時間的證明。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Duffy Fischer with Goldman Sachs.

高盛的達菲·菲舍爾。

Hey, good morning guys. It was two years ago you guys rolled out the slide where you talked about $50 billion of opportunity around clean energy. A lot of changes in the world as we're looking at that now.

嘿，大家早安。兩年前，你們在幻燈片中談到了清潔能源領域 500 億美元的商機。正如我們現在所看到的，世界發生了許多變化。

When you look at that market today, how would you size it differently? Would you size the timing of it differently? What are customers coming back to you saying, how much trust do they have and pieces of the IRA, some of the stuff that was driving that forward, because it was, going to be a decent part of the algorithm for you guys to grow. Just, get your view on kind of where that is today.

當您今天審視該市場時，您會如何以不同的方式衡量其規模？您會以不同的方式調整其時間嗎？客戶回來後會對您說什麼，他們有多信任您，IRA 的哪些部分是推動其發展的因素，因為它將成為您成長演算法的重要組成部分。只是想了解目前的情況。

So Duffy, you're right. We kind of laid that out a couple of years ago when we laid out the strategy which said, look, we'll decarbonize our own operations, we'll support our customer decarbonization process and of course, there are new energy markets that will come through.

所以達菲，你是對的。幾年前，我們在製定策略時就已經提出了這一點，即，我們將使我們自己的營運脫碳，我們將支持我們的客戶脫碳進程，當然，還會有新的能源市場出現。

We did offer that $50 billion over a period of 10+ years, so there's a long time to go as we reflect on that number. I think, we see the opportunities set that we have around clean energy projects still looking fairly attractive. The feeder pool into that $50 billion looks still reasonable. I think what's more important is to focus on the slightly more shorter term.

我們確實在 10 多年的時間裡提供了 500 億美元，因此當我們回顧這個數字時，還有很長的路要走。我認為，我們看到清潔能源專案所蘊含的機會仍然相當有吸引力。500億美元的供給池看起來仍然合理。我認為更重要的是專注於稍微短期一點的事情。

And we've said that look, we expect $8 billion to $10 billion over the next few years. And I think the point to make over here, definitely, is that we are about halfway through there with the two projects that we're currently executing, and our expectation remains that some of those projects are likely to see additional trains in due course.

我們已經說過，我們預計未來幾年將達到 80 億至 100 億美元。我認為這裡要明確的是，我們目前正在執行的兩個項目已經完成了一半，我們仍然預計其中一些項目可能會在適當的時候迎來更多的列車。

And of course, other projects developing elsewhere in the Middle East and Europe could add to that tally. I'd say to you, standing here, I still feel reasonably confident that $8 billion to $10 billion over a few years is something that we still feel that we are set to get to. So that's kind of what the numbers look like just in terms of feedback, and I think it's important to note over here, and you've heard me say this before, so at the point of, I'm kind of be laboring the point over here a little bit, but we've always differentiated between two different types of projects.

當然，中東和歐洲其他地區正在開發的項目也可能會繼續增加。站在這裡，我想對你們說，我仍然有信心，幾年內實現 80 億到 100 億美元的目標，我們仍然覺得我們一定能實現。這就是從回饋角度來看的數字，我認為在這裡需要注意的是，你以前也聽過我這麼說，所以在這一點上，我在這裡稍微強調一下，但我們總是區分兩種不同類型的項目。

The low carbon hydrogen project, which is what is also known as blue hydrogen development, as well as renewable hydrogen or green hydrogen development. And you've heard me say in the past that green hydrogen development from my point of view isn't at scale today, doesn't have the competitive cost base that is necessary or indeed requires to have significant reduction in capital intensity to get to that point of inflection.

低碳氫化合物項目，也稱為藍色氫開發，以及可再生氫或綠色氫開發。你們過去也聽我說過，從我的角度來看，綠色氫能的發展目前還沒有達到規模，沒有必要的競爭成本基礎，或者確實需要大幅降低資本密集度才能達到那個轉折點。

We've said in the past and I maintain that probably five to seven years out. You'll be pleased to know that in our portfolio project that we're pursuing that is a very small percentage related to renewable hydrogen, and we only do that opportunistically when there is potentially a very low-cost renewable energy access and so on and so forth.

我們過去曾說過，而且我認為可能還需要五到七年的時間。您會很高興地知道，在我們正在進行的投資組合項目中，與可再生氫相關的比例非常小，而且我們只在有可能以非常低成本獲得可再生能源的情況下才會這樣做。

The primary development in our in our project pipeline is related to low carbon hydrogen or blue hydrogen. And again, a lot of people reference IRA. I always want to remind folks that the clause that we should be talking about and thinking about is 45, which predates the IRA.

我們專案管道中的主要開發與低碳氫或藍氫有關。再次，很多人提到 IRA。我總是想提醒大家，我們應該討論和思考的條款是第 45 條，它早於愛爾蘭共和軍 (IRA)。

And that clause is supporting. Producing hydrogen using natural gas, converting that using an autothermal reformer or a steam methane reformer, and taking the carbon dioxide that is produced, capturing it, and sequestering it. And hence that 45 cube credit of $85 per ton, which we feel reasonably confident at this point in time, I think, I'm being brave in this world, but I feel confident that that has the support necessary as we move forward.

該條款是支持性的。利用天然氣生產氫氣，使用自熱重整器或蒸汽甲烷重整器進行轉化，並獲取產生的二氧化碳，將其捕獲並封存。因此，對於每噸 85 美元的 45 立方噸信貸，我們目前對此感到相當有信心，我認為，我在這個世界上是勇敢的，但我相信，隨著我們前進，這將提供必要的支持。

And that's really what's underpinning the project development cycle that we're looking at and that's where we feel the larger project development world that Linde is doing is concentrated on and that looks pretty resilient as things stand.

這確實是我們正在關注的專案開發週期的基礎，我們認為林德所從事的更大的專案開發領域也集中於此，而且就目前情況而言，這看起來相當有彈性。

And maybe, definitely there's one thing I'll add Sanjiv as well as, when you reference it on the algorithm, we've always said the capital allocation algorithm, we expect 4% to 6%. That's been our stable contribution going back a couple of decades, and it absolutely includes projects like Sanjiv mentioned, and we feel good about that, but it also includes buybacks, it includes acquisitions, and it includes capital structure. These are all uses of capital and you saw this quarter acquisitions now rounding up to 1%.

也許，我肯定會補充一點，Sanjiv，當你在演算法中引用它時，我們總是說資本配置演算法，我們預期 4% 到 6%。這是我們幾十年來的穩定貢獻，其中絕對包括 Sanjiv 提到的項目，我們對此感到滿意，但它還包括回購、收購和資本結構。這些都是資本的用途，您會看到本季的收購現在已四捨五入至 1%。

We're seeing opportunities to do that. We continue to see buyback opportunities in the way the markets are reacting. So we have mechanisms and means to continue to contribute on that algorithm even as some of these projects might be a little bit delayed or until they contribute. So we still feel good about our ability to deliver on that.

我們看到了實現這一目標的機會。從市場的反應我們繼續看到回購機會。因此，我們有機制和方法來繼續為該演算法做出貢獻，即使其中一些項目可能會稍微延遲或直到它們做出貢獻。因此，我們仍然對自己實現這一目標的能力充滿信心。

Awesome.

驚人的。

Thank you guys.

謝謝你們。

David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的大衛·貝格萊特。

Thank you. Good morning. On your guidance, you loaded by roughly $0.30 FX. Was it -- was the vast majority in the Americas due to weaker manufacturing? If it was, which manufacturing and markets are you seeing the greatest slowing or demand weakness? Thank you.

謝謝。早安.根據您的指導，您加載了大約 0.30 美元的外匯。是不是因為美洲的製造業實力較弱？如果是，您認為哪些製造業和市場放緩或需求疲軟最為嚴重？謝謝。

So let's, I'll let Matt talk about the guidance and I'll give you a flavor of what we're seeing in the US manufacturing. Matt?

因此，我將讓馬特談論指導意見，並讓您了解我們在美國製造業看到的情況。馬特？

Yeah, sure. So I think David on the guidance, if you start with the FX change, as I mentioned, it was 4%, in the beginning of the quarter, went to 2% by the end, averaged at 3%, just as a reminder when we put a guidance estimate, and it's merely an estimate into our range here. We take the forward rates at the beginning of each month. So what I'm telling you right now is the forward rate as of April 1. We haven't updated that for today's forward rate, which we'll do. And then, of course, we booked the average rate as it occurs.

是的，當然。因此，我認為，對於指導意見，大衛，如果你從外匯變化開始，正如我所提到的，它在本季度初是 4%，到末上升到 2%，平均為 3%，只是提醒一下，當我們提出指導估計時，它僅僅是我們範圍內的一個估計。我們採用每個月初的遠期利率。所以我現在告訴你的是 4 月 1 日的遠期匯率。我們還沒有更新今天的遠期匯率，我們會更新的。然後，當然，我們按照發生的平均價格進行預訂。

Clearly the rates have moved a little bit, I would say to a further weakening dollar. And when you think about what's moved the most, the euro has helped the most, given that seems to be more of a flight to quality currency today. The sterlings helped a bit, and then on lat currencies, it's been a mixed bag, I'd say, between the pesto and the real. So that's how we thought about that, and then clearly what you're seeing in this environment, normally when we see risk off, you'd see a strengthening dollar with a weakening environment.

顯然利率已經略有變動，我想說的是美元將進一步走弱。如果考慮影響最大的因素，歐元的貢獻最大，因為如今歐元似乎更傾向於優質貨幣。英鎊有一點幫助，至於拉特貨幣，我想說，香蒜醬和雷亞爾的表現有好有壞。這就是我們對此的想法，然後很明顯你在這種環境下看到了什麼，通常當我們看到風險消除時，你會看到美元走強而環境走弱。

It's a bit inverted now. You're seeing a basically a weakening dollar with a weakening environment. So we are getting some offset in that, and that's how we've laid it out. Time will tell. But like we said, if things are better, we'll do better. But I'll hand up Sanjiv to give more update on America's trends.

現在有點顛倒了。你會看到美元隨著環境的惡化而逐漸走弱。因此，我們得到了一些補償，這就是我們所安排的。時間會證明一切。但就像我們所說的那樣，如果情況變得更好，我們就會做得更好。但我會讓 Sanjiv 提供更多有關美國趨勢的更新。

So I'm going to focus on manufacturing, which I think was your question, David. So manufacturing in Q1 for the US was softer than prior, and that is a combination of factors including the fact that we had a couple of weather events in both January and February, particularly in the south and southeast of the US, which obviously impacted that. We did end the quarter strong with a strong march, probably for the first time in many quarters. We saw some poor manufacturing growth both in gases and hard goods.

因此我將重點放在製造業，我想這就是你的問題，大衛。因此，美國第一季的製造業比前一季疲軟，這是多種因素造成的，包括 1 月和 2 月都經歷了幾次天氣事件，特別是在美國南部和東南部，這顯然對製造業產生了影響。我們確實以強勁的步伐結束了本季度，這可能是許多季度以來的第一次。我們發現氣體和耐用品製造業的成長都有些疲軟。

In April, that trend appears to continue to be there. It's slightly moderated in the pace of movement forward, but it's still intact. As I think about the industries that impacted that, when we look at it, we saw automotive, agricultural products, mining, etc, which were soft, not a surprise, offset in part by general fabrication, energy, chemicals, and of course, construction.

四月份，這一趨勢似乎仍在繼續。前進的步伐稍微放慢了一些，但仍然完好無損。當我思考那些受到影響的行業時，我們發現汽車、農產品、採礦等行業表現疲軟，這並不令人意外，但一般製造、能源、化學品，當然還有建築業，在一定程度上抵消了這些行業受到的影響。

Now, in April, also I'd say to you that the sentiment for the larger customers has turned more negative. Obviously, given the uncertainty and lack of stability in the market and potential for high inflation. So you can see that reflected in the PMI numbers that you've seen. So while sentiment has turned, we haven't seen that reflect in volumes just yet. And indeed, some customers are still buying on the hard goods side are actually making investments in larger CapEx items such as automation, which is kind of essential for productivity, particularly if you have labor shortages.

現在，到了四月份，我還想告訴你們，大客戶的情緒已經變得更加負面。顯然，考慮到市場不確定性和缺乏穩定性以及高通膨的可能性。因此，您可以從所看到的 PMI 數字中看到這一點。因此，儘管情緒已經轉變，但我們尚未看到交易量上的反映。事實上，一些仍在購買耐用品的客戶實際上正在對自動化等更大的資本支出項目進行投資，這對於提高生產力至關重要，特別是在勞動力短缺的情況下。

So I think overall, I'd just say that manufacturing has been more resilient than people had expected. Obviously, the expectation remains that if you get some policy certainty and if you get some stability, which have been creating some headwinds, you will see potentially in the second half of the year a likely pick up in manufacturing once those conditions are met.

因此我認為整體而言，製造業的彈性比人們預期的要大。顯然，人們的預期是，如果獲得一定的政策確定性和穩定性（這一直在帶來一些阻力），那麼一旦滿足這些條件，你就有可能在今年下半年看到製造業回升。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Peter Clark with Bernstein.

彼得·克拉克 (Peter Clark) 和伯恩斯坦。

Yes, good morning, everyone. It's on the electronics, I think with the four quarter and you were saying you're expected to sign new signatures very shortly.

是的，大家早安。這是關於電子產品的，我認為是第四季度，您說您預計很快就會簽署新的簽名。

You signed something in Korea with your relationship with Samsung with an expansion. I'm just wondering clearly other things are bubbling because that side of the backlog actually in terms of value terms with startup diminished a little going into one. And then just a quick follow up. EMEA, I mean, I always thought that should be the highest margin business. You're delivering over 35% now. Is there anything exceptional helping that? Is it the volumes perhaps in the smaller on-site business being a bit softer, giving it a little bit of a profit boost, or is it just nothing extraordinary, just delivering on the model?

您在韓國與三星簽署了一份協議，以擴展雙方的合作關係。我只是想知道其他事情是否正在醞釀，因為實際上，就新創企業的價值而言，積壓的那一側已經減少。然後只是快速跟進。我的意思是，我一直認為 EMEA 應該是利潤最高的業務。您目前的交付率已超過 35%。有什麼特殊情況可以對此有所幫助嗎？是因為規模較小的現場業務的銷售有點疲軟，從而為利潤帶來一點提升，還是說這並沒有什麼特別之處，只是在實現模型而已？

So why to begin with the EMEA, Peter, and just say that it is fundamentally the model. I don't think there is anything particularly offsetting. There's nothing special in there. It's a fundamental business that has turned from being a 19% margin business back in 2019 to being a 35%%-plus business today, and I think it's taken a lot of hard work to get there. I think credit to the team, having worked through the energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and all of that to get to get it this year, and I remain confident that team really has the algorithm worked out and are executing it every day to make sure that they maintain that margin and move forward with it.

那麼，為什麼要從 EMEA 開始呢，Peter，並且說它從根本上來說是一個模型。我認為沒有特別抵銷的東西。那裡沒什麼特別的。這是一項基礎業務，其利潤率已從 2019 年的 19% 上升到如今的 35% 以上，我認為這需要付出很多努力才能實現。我認為團隊的功勞在於，他們克服了能源危機、烏克蘭戰爭等諸多困難，今年才有了這項成就。我仍然相信，團隊確實已經制定了演算法，並且每天都在執行，以確保他們保持這一優勢並繼續前進。

Let me go back to backlog then, and I'll talk about backlog generally and then we'll talk a little bit about the Korean. So in Q4, I did say that you should expect us to announce some electronics projects. This is the first of a few that I expect that we will be announcing. The backlog overall, $10 billion, $7 billion of that is sitting in the sale of gas side, which is where most of the interest is. And my expectation is that this year, probably towards the second half of the year, we will start up about $1 billion out of that backlog. The best thing that happens in the backlog, as I've always said, is, you start the projects up and it comes out of your backlog and your backlog shrinks.

那麼讓我回到積壓問題，我將大致談論積壓問題，然後我們再談一點關於韓語的問題。所以在第四季度，我確實說過你應該期待我們宣布一些電子專案。這是我預計我們將要宣布的幾個消息中的第一個。總體積壓金額為 100 億美元，其中 70 億美元用於天然氣銷售，這也是人們最感興趣的領域。我的預期是，今年，大概是下半年，我們將從積壓資金中拿出約 10 億美元。正如我一直說的那樣，積壓工作中發生的最好的事情是，你啟動項目，然後它從你的積壓工作中出來，你的積壓工作就減少了。

Now the good news is I fully expect that we will end the year with a backlog with a $7 billion handle on it. In fact, I expect it will be slightly higher than what we have today. So I feel pretty good about the projects that we're currently developing despite everything you read in the news, we have a good pipeline of projects. I think, Matt made the point really eloquently earlier on our algorithm says that our capital allocation will deliver 4% to 6% of the EPS growth, and feeding into that is high quality projects and much of those projects will come from our traditional end markets. There'll be some from clean energy.

現在的好消息是，我完全預計今年年底我們的積壓訂單將達到 70 億美元。事實上，我預計它會比現在的水平略高一些。因此，儘管您在新聞中看到很多報道，但我對我們目前正在開發的項目感到非常滿意，因為我們擁有一系列良好的項目。我認為，馬特早些時候就我們的演算法非常雄辯地指出，我們的資本配置將帶來 4% 到 6% 的每股收益成長，而這其中需要高品質的項目，而這些項目大部分將來自我們的傳統終端市場。其中一部分來自清潔能源。

But much of the project development will actually come and the project wins, will come from a traditional end market. So that's kind of what gives us confidence that the backlog is going to look pretty good and the project win rate is looking particularly strong at this point in time, given the circumstances in which we are operating.

但實際上，大部分專案開發和專案勝利都將來自傳統的終端市場。因此，考慮到我們目前的營運情況，這讓我們有信心，積壓訂單將會看起來相當不錯，而且目前的專案中標率看起來特別高。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Laurent Favre with BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Laurent Favre。

Hi. Actually you just kind of said what I had in mind, which was away from dial. Have you seen any risk around delays or slowdowns on what is currently in the backlog? So starts that were due in Q2 that may be delayed to H2, for instance, or indeed lower appetite from customers. But Sanjiv, as you just said that you are quite confident to sign those projects, can you talk about the areas where you see the biggest commitments, either geographically or in terms of the markets?

你好。實際上，你剛才說出了我心裡想的，那就是遠離撥號。您是否發現目前積壓的交易有延遲或放緩的風險？因此，原定於第二季開工的專案可能會推遲到下半年，或者客戶需求確實會降低。但是 Sanjiv，正如您剛才所說，您非常有信心簽署這些項目，您能否談談您認為承諾最大的領域，無論是從地理上還是從市場角度來看？

Yeah, and why -- don't do two things? I'll just talk about how I'm seeing the markets for the rest of the year more broadly, and then we talk about some of the investment trends that we're seeing as well. And Matt mentioned earlier on that, from a guidance point of view, and you've seen this as well in the slides, we're considering recessionary conditions now at the midpoint, and as I look around, when you think about in markets, a resilient in markets are still going to grow. That's led by electronics, food and beverage, etc.

是的，為什麼不做兩件事呢？我只想談談我對今年剩餘時間市場的看法，然後我們再談談我們看到的一些投資趨勢。馬特之前提到過，從指導的角度來看，你在幻燈片中也看到了這一點，我們現在正在考慮中點的衰退狀況，當我環顧四周時，當你想到市場時，市場的彈性仍然會增長。其中以電子產品、食品和飲料等為主導。

Low-to-mid single digit, it's the more cyclical markets of the industrial sector, which is likely to see lower volumes towards the rest of the year, mainly in metals and chemicals. So that's kind of way of thinking about from an end market perspective. As you look at geographically, we expect volumes in America to remain flattish for the year. That's kind of built into how we're thinking about the guidance, the resilient in markets obviously will continue to find their growth, but they will be more than offset by software industrial sector, not dissimilar to what we saw last year.

低至中等個位數，這是工業領域更具週期性的市場，今年剩餘時間內交易量可能會下降，主要是金屬和化學品領域。這是從終端市場角度思考的一種方式。從地理位置來看，我們預計今年美國的銷售量將保持穩定。這在某種程度上已經融入我們對指導的思考中，市場的彈性顯然將繼續增長，但它們將被軟體工業部門所抵消，這與我們去年看到的情況並無不同。

So I think we kind of see that trend maintain America's flattish is how you should think about it. Europe, there is unfortunately, as we said before, no catalyst for change to the current trajectory, so we see continued softening in demand, mainly in Western Europe. Again, resilient and markets will continue to grow, but I expect that more than offsets, that is more than offset by the industrial sector, metals, manufacturing, chemicals, energy, all of them will see lower volumes versus prior year. So that's where I think most of the weakness will lie. In Asia, China is a mixed bag. I said that in my prepared remarks, I think as we look ahead. I'm not expecting any growth from China for the year.

所以我認為，我們看到的趨勢是，美國保持平穩，這就是你應該考慮的問題。不幸的是，正如我們之前所說，歐洲沒有改變當前軌蹟的催化劑，因此我們看到需求持續疲軟，主要是在西歐。再次，市場將繼續保持彈性和成長，但我預計，工業部門、金屬、製造業、化學品、能源等部門的抵消作用將超過預期，所有這些部門的產量都將比上年下降。所以我認為這就是大部分弱點所在。在亞洲，中國的情況好壞參半。我在準備好的發言中說過，我認為我們應該展望未來。我並不期望中國今年會有任何成長。

There are some green shoots, batteries, electronics, they are -- there are areas where you are seeing some growth, but metals and chemicals will continue to be weaker for the rest of the year. I also expect in Q2, in particular, the export-driven markets.

有一些復甦的跡象，電池、電子產品等，這些領域正在出現一些增長，但金屬和化學物質在今年剩餘時間內仍將持續疲軟。我還預計第二季度，特別是出口驅動市場。

Manufacturing, in particular, we'll see continued softening, given the tariff headwinds and the uncertainty that kind of lies around that. The bright spark in Asia Pacific is India, and we obviously see continuing trend of investments and volume growth over there and we are obviously, as well positioned to participate in that. South Korea, I mentioned the project that we've just won, which hopefully gives you a sense of how South Korea growth will look some growth this year, but obviously a lot of project activity continuing over there which looks good. So if I summarized from an outlook, which is then reflected back into our guidance.

尤其是製造業，考慮到關稅阻力和由此產生的不確定性，我們將看到製造業持續疲軟。亞太地區的亮點是印度，我們顯然看到那裡的投資和數量持續成長，我們顯然也處於有利地位來參與其中。韓國，我提到了我們剛剛贏得的項目，希望這能讓您了解韓國今年的成長情況，但顯然那裡的許多項目活動仍在繼續，這看起來不錯。因此，如果我從展望中進行總結，那麼它就會反映到我們的指導中。

America's flattish, APAC largely balanced despite the headwinds in China and Europe or in May really where you'll see weakening volumes kind of reflecting in that in that outlook that we presented. Now against this backdrop as we think about CapEx, it is a secular growth opportunities that are particularly driving the CapEx growth for us. So electronics will play a big part in that. But alongside that there are winds happening geographically, in Asia in particular, which are more metals, chemicals. These are smaller winds, but not withstanding, they kind of add to the overall portfolio winds we're looking at.

儘管中國和歐洲面臨阻力，但美國市場表現平平，亞太地區市場基本上保持平衡，或者在 5 月份，您會看到交易量下降，這在我們提出的前景中有所體現。現在，在這種背景下，當我們考慮資本支出時，這是一個長期的成長機會，尤其推動了我們的資本支出成長。因此電子產品將在其中發揮重要作用。但除此之外，地理上也出現了風，特別是在亞洲，那裡有更多的金屬和化學物質。這些都是較小的風力，但儘管如此，它們還是增加了我們正在關注的整體投資組合風力。

So we will see some clean energy projects, but we are going to see a lot of electronics projects. We're going to see some metals, we're going to see some refining, even some chemicals projects come through in other parts of the world, and I think that's what will kind of create the balance to get us to the backlog that I referenced earlier on.

因此，我們將看到一些清潔能源項目，但我們也將看到很多電子項目。我們將看到一些金屬、一些精煉、甚至一些化學物質項目在世界其他地區開展，我認為這將創造平衡，讓我們實現我之前提到的積壓訂單。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeff Zekauskas with JP Morgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. I have a couple of questions around your income statement. In 2024, your other income, was $200 million, sort of a positive change of about $234 million. And normally that number is pretty low. What's your expectation for 2025?

非常感謝。我對您的損益表有幾個疑問。2024 年，您的其他收入為 2 億美元，約為 2.34 億美元的正變化。通常這個數字相當低。您對2025年有何期望？

And secondly, in your SG&A expense, I think it was down 9% from 860 to 786. How did you do that? Is there something unusual in that number? And if your SG&A was flat, roughly your operating profits would have been flat in the quarter. So can you talk about the different pressures that your income statement seems to be under and how you're coping with that? Is your SG&A going to be down 9% for the year or was the first quarter unusual?

其次，我認為你們的銷售、一般及行政費用從 860 下降到了 786，下降了 9%。你是怎麼做到的？這個數字有什麼不尋常的地方嗎？如果您的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 持平，那麼您本季的營業利潤大致也會持平。那麼，您能談談您的損益表面臨的不同壓力以及您如何應對這些壓力嗎？您的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 全年是否會下降 9% 或第一季是否異常？

Jeff I'm going to let Matt, who's looking forward to responding to you on these questions, respond back, but I'm just going to touch on SG&A and tell you this very briefly. It takes a lot of hard work and management actions and as last year in the third quarter, we took the restructuring charge. That's all being executed as we speak and that obviously is reflected in the SG&A line, in addition to the fact that we have lower incentives.

傑夫：我將讓馬特來回答這些問題，他期待著回答您的問題，但我只想談一下銷售、一般和行政費用，並非常簡要地告訴您這一點。這需要大量的努力和管理行動，就像去年第三季一樣，我們承擔了重組任務。所有這些都正在執行中，這顯然反映在銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 項目中，此外，我們的激勵措施也較低。

Compensation that's sitting in there as well, which obviously gets normalized over time, but I'm sure EMEA will have a far more elegant response to that.

補償也在那裡，顯然會隨著時間的推移而正常化，但我相信 EMEA 對此會做出更優雅的回應。

So let's start with other income, first, what's in it, right? Probably is a good way to start and other income for us, what we put there is either large items, extraordinary, either gain or loss that we feel are operating related obviously, but either are large enough we carve out or it could be based on a prior timing.

那麼讓我們先從其他收入開始，它包含什麼，對嗎？對我們來說，這可能是開始和其他收入的一個好方法，我們放入的要么是大件物品，要么是非經常性物品，要么是我們認為顯然與運營相關的收益或損失，但要么足夠大，我們可以將其剔除，要么可以基於先前的時間安排。

So last year, about a quarter of that number, you may recall was a large insurance claim that we had. We actually spiked that out in Q1. In fact, when you look at the Q1 year over year, you see a fairly large drop in other income going from almost around $60 million to $20 million. So that actually was a large insurance.

您可能還記得，去年，其中約四分之一是我們收到的大額保險索賠。實際上，我們在第一季就已實現了這一目標。事實上，當你回顧第一季的年比情況時，你會發現其他收入大幅下降，從大約 6,000 萬美元下降到 2,000 萬美元。所以這其實是一筆大額保險。

Now, clearly, we had a losses prior to that and going forward on that because it included a BI element. So to some extent, you have a little bit of a timing mismatch because of the claim you got insurance, against the backdrop of some ongoing BI impact from that incident that occurred and that was actually in the other segment you may recall on our materials business.

現在，很明顯，我們在此之前和之後都遭受了損失，因為它包含了 BI 元素。因此，從某種程度上來說，由於您獲得保險的索賠，在發生的該事件對 BI 產生一些持續影響的背景下，您的時間存在一些不匹配的情況，而這實際上是在我們材料業務的另一個部分，您可能還記得。

Outside of that, there are going to be some gains and losses on certain sales, but we also did have some other offsetting items actually above other income that we had talked about in the past as well. Now we don't give a projection on that number, but I fully don't expect 2025 to be near that level.

除此之外，某些銷售會產生一些收益和損失，但我們也確實有一些其他抵消項目，實際上高於我們過去談到的其他收入。現在我們沒有對這個數字做出預測，但我完全不認為 2025 年會接近這個水平。

In fact, you already saw in the first quarter, as I mentioned, we're already down $40 million. So I think 2025 will be more representative of 2023 or prior years, whereas we didn't have such a large insurance benefit or some of the other items that occurred in 2024. As far as SG&A, we'll start with about a quarter of that's currency, okay? So obviously we talk about the FX heard on OP but in SG&A we equally have costs that are foreign denominated, so you get that benefit.

事實上，正如我所提到的，您已經看到第一季我們已經虧損了 4000 萬美元。因此，我認為 2025 年將更能代表 2023 年或之前的年份，而我們沒有那麼大的保險福利或 2024 年發生的一些其他事項。就銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 而言，我們將從其中約四分之一的貨幣開始，好嗎？因此，顯然我們談論的是 OP 中聽到的外匯，但在 SG&A 中，我們同樣有以外幣計價的成本，因此您可以獲得這種好處。

But even outside of the FX, we did take a restructuring charge in Q4, as we need to see the benefits of that, and those benefits primarily manifest themselves in lower headcount and lower SG&A spend. So there is the benefits, the productivity associated with that. Right now, my expectation is the actions we've taken for the most part have offset any normal growth in merit or SG&A. But on top of that, we did have a fairly sizable year-on-year reduction of incentives.

但即使在外匯之外，我們確實在第四季度進行了重組，因為我們需要看到這樣做的好處，而這些好處主要體現在減少員工人數和降低銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 支出。因此，這樣做有好處，而且可以提高生產力。現在，我的預期是，我們採取的大部分行動已經抵消了績效或銷售、一般及行政費用的任何正常成長。但除此之外，我們的激勵措施比去年同期確實有相當大的減少。

We are a pay for performance culture, and we're not performing. We understand that we're not meeting our targets and therefore the incentive comp is lower. So I expect it could remain lower for the remainder of the year. It will probably be a little lumpier because it's a function of the projections and the forecast of the payout ratios, but I fully expect lower compensation payout this year than prior year, and that'll be reflected in the accruals, because our shareholders also are suffering through this. So we need to as well.

我們秉承的是績效工資文化，但我們並沒有表現出色。我們知道我們沒有達到我們的目標，因此激勵補償較低。因此我預計今年剩餘時間內該價格可能仍將維持在較低水準。由於它取決於預測和派息率預測，因此可能會更加不穩定，但我完全預計今年的薪酬支出將低於去年，這將反映在應計項目中，因為我們的股東也因此受到影響。所以我們也需要這樣做。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Steven Byrne with Bank of America.

美國銀行的史蒂文·伯恩 (Steven Byrne)。

Yes, thank you. Matt, you mentioned a few minutes ago that you attributed productivity and pricing as the drivers of that 120 basis point operating margin improvement year over year that more than offset lower volumes.

是的，謝謝。馬特，幾分鐘前你提到，生產力和定價是營業利潤率年增 120 個基點的驅動因素，足以抵銷銷量下降的影響。

And a little bit of the cost increase, pardon me, and my question for you is can you size those two buckets, the productivity and pricing, how would you size those two to drive that margin expansion and maybe more specifically on productivity, what all are you doing these days on driving that? Historically, head count production was a big lever for you guys, but moving forward, do you still see that as a meaningful opportunity and any changes in your approach at achieving that productivity gain?

成本稍微增加了一點，請原諒我，我想問您的是，您能否衡量一下生產力和定價這兩個方面，您將如何衡量這兩個方面以推動利潤率的擴大，更具體地說是生產力，您最近都在做什麼來推動生產力？從歷史上看，人數生產對你們來說是一個很大的槓桿，但展望未來，你們是否仍然認為這是一個有意義的機會，以及你們實現生產力提高的方法有什麼改變？

Yeah, sure, Steve. So we'll start with how to size it. So I think an easy way to think about this is going back to the earnings algorithm. And as you recall, we give three pillars capital allocation, which we say is about 4% to 6% management actions, which is at least another 4% to 6% if not more, and then the macro, which is based volumes and effects management actions represents price less cost and the productivity. We always think about that as a spread. So you -- each one in an individual is not as important as the spread. So while price is important and while cost is important, the spread between the two is the most important.

是的，當然，史蒂夫。因此，我們將從如何確定其尺寸開始。所以我認為思考這個問題的一個簡單方法是回顧收益演算法。大家還記得，我們​​給了三大支柱資本配置，我們說這大約是 4% 到 6% 的管理行動，如果不是更多的話，至少是另外 4% 到 6%，然後是宏觀，它基於數量和效果管理行動代表價格減去成本和生產力。我們總是認為這是一種傳播。所以你——每一個個體都不如傳播那麼重要。因此，雖然價格很重要，成本也很重要，但兩者之間的差價才是最重要的。

So as long as you achieve positive spreads in all of your geographies, that will be 100% contribution towards margins. It is purely margin accretive in that regard. And the management actions over our prior two to three decades of EPS growth has consistently contributed probably close to two-thirds of our EPS growth in the algorithm.

因此，只要您在所有地區都實現了正利差，這將對利潤產生 100% 的貢獻。從這個方面來說，它純粹是為了增加利潤。在我們過去二三十年的每股盈餘成長中，管理措施一直為我們的每股盈餘成長貢獻了接近三分之二的演算法。

And so when you think about more than half of your growth coming from that area, that by default will result in a margin accretion aspect. Now I will say in tougher times, and arguably we're in a little bit of a tougher time right now, you're going to see larger margin expansion because the management actions as a percentage of the whole algorithm is greater.

因此，當您考慮到超過一半的成長來自該領域時，這預設會導致利潤率的成長。現在我要說的是，在更艱難的時期，而且可以說我們現在正處於一個更艱難的時期，你會看到更大的利潤擴張，因為管理行動佔整個演算法的百分比更大。

And then when you see recovery times, and I mentioned 2021 where we grew EPS 30%, when you see recovery times, then the margin may not expand as much as you normally would see it because macro becomes a much bigger driver. You will get a margin expansion just not at the same level you might with a management action.

然後，當您看到復甦時間時，我提到 2021 年我們的每股盈餘成長了 30%，當您看到復甦時間時，利潤率可能不會像您通常看到的那樣擴大，因為宏觀經濟成為一個更大的驅動力。您將獲得利潤成長，但不會達到採取管理行動時可能達到的水平。

So I think from that and that's how we think about it as far as productivity initiatives, clearly you're going to have technology advancements will always give us opportunities, AI being the current version, but there's always going to be developments that give us the opportunity to do more, and I would never underestimate that as the world changes, new opportunities create themselves. When you see even areas where you might have some slowdowns, we will look at new ways of how we do our distributions, how we source our products. It's always a discussion of fixed versus variable costs and what's the appropriate way to address a market for the time we see it operating in a certain capacity.

所以我認為從這一點出發，這就是我們對生產力舉措的看法，顯然技術進步總是會給我們帶來機會，人工智能就是目前的版本，但總會有發展給我們機會做更多的事情，我永遠不會低估隨著世界的變化，新的機會會自動產生。當您發現某些領域可能會出現速度減慢的情況時，我們就會尋找新的方式來進行分銷、如何採購產品。我們總是在討論固定成本與變動成本，以及當我們看到市場以一定容量運作時，如何以適當的方式應對市場。

And by doing that, we can find synergies by increasing or decreasing the operating leverage of the business by either extending more variable costs or by reducing variable going fixed costs for greater recovery. So it is always a continuous effort. It's always evolving. There's never an endgame. That's why we never name our programs. It's integrated with the culture. And so from that end, it's not one silver bullet.

透過這樣做，我們可以透過增加或減少業務的經營槓桿來實現協同效應，即透過增加更多的可變成本或減少可變的固定成本來實現更大的回收。所以這始終是一項持續不斷的努力。它總是在不斷發展。永遠沒有結局。這就是我們從不為我們的程式命名的原因。它與文化融為一體。因此從這個角度來看，這並不是靈丹妙藥。

If there was then I probably wouldn't believe it's a lot of things.

如果有的話，我可能不會相信有很多事情。

And to that point, Steve, let me just give you a bit of color. There is no one silver bullet, and we are grateful for that because we want every part of our business engaged in productivity effort every day. Last year, we did 15,515 projects.

關於這一點，史蒂夫，請允許我告訴你一點故事。沒有什麼靈丹妙藥，我們對此心存感激，因為我們希望我們業務的每個部分每天都能提高生產力。去年，我們完成了15,515個專案。

This year in the first quarter we've done more than 4,000 projects, more than 4,000 projects. It takes every part of the organization to look at the opportunity every day and make sure that, that gets happened.

今年第一季我們已經完成了4000多個項目，4000多個項目。組織的每個部分都需要每天專注於機會並確保機會能夠實現。

Not only does it get executed, it's actually then recorded and the learnings are then cascaded to the rest of the world. I'll give you a couple of quick examples just to illustrate, how practically we're looking at productivity. So obviously, ASU operations are very power intensive. As you know we are one of the largest purchasers of power globally optimizing that even by a small percentage has a big impact.

它不僅被執行，而且實際上被記錄下來，並將學習成果傳播到世界其他地方。我將舉幾個簡單的例子來說明我們如何實際地看待生產力。顯然，ASU 的運作非常耗能。正如你們所知，我們是全球最大的電力購買者之一，即使只是很小比例的最佳化也會產生很大的影響。

So we have a power optimizer model that is currently using AI to optimize the way we operate our plants depending on the level of customers demand on the tank levels that we have, the tank level our liquid customers have and the power pricing that's going to happen, from a predictive point of view. There's a good example of something which we perfected over many years, now being kind of having its biggest impact because we're able to do it real time using an AI model.

因此，我們有一個電力優化模型，該模型目前正在使用人工智慧來優化我們營運工廠的方式，具體取決於客戶對我們擁有的儲罐水平的需求水平、液體客戶擁有的儲罐水平以及即將發生的電力定價（從預測的角度來看）。有一個很好的例子，我們經過多年的完善，現在它的影響最大，因為我們能夠使用人工智慧模型即時地做到這一點。

Two other big examples. The other one would be distribution. One of the things that you know we are doing is deploying telemetry so that we understand exactly the tank levels that exist within our customers tankage and our ability to then distribute and schedule that distribution load in a way that further optimizes and creates efficiency on the use of the assets as well as ensures that we are getting to the point where the customers at the load level that we think is appropriate for us to refill.

另外兩個重要的例子。另一個是分銷。您知道我們正在做的事情之一是部署遙測技術，以便我們準確了解客戶油箱內的油位，以及我們隨後分配和安排分配負載的能力，從而進一步優化和提高資產使用效率，並確保我們達到我們認為適合我們補充的負載水平的客戶。

So again, a lot sophisticated machine learning models sitting behind that which track the telemetry, track the usage the customer typically has, and based on that do predictive scheduling. Those are two examples. I mean, we have 105 use cases on AI models that we are deploying as we speak, so there is a lot of opportunity around this. I'm excited about a -- well, about 30%, 31% to 32% of all our productivity efforts come out of digital and AI solutions.

因此，再次強調，背後有許多複雜的機器學習模型，可以追蹤遙測數據，追蹤客戶的典型使用情況，並在此基礎上進行預測調度。這是兩個例子。我的意思是，我們有 105 個正在部署的 AI 模型用例，因此這方面有很多機會。我很高興——我們所有生產力努力的大約 30%、31% 到 32% 來自數位和人工智慧解決方案。

Pretty good, thank you.

非常好，謝謝。

Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Hey, good morning. Just a quick follow up on your 2025 outlook. When you think about sort of economic contraction, does your volumes are down 1% in Q1, does it? Should it stay around that level or does it get a little bit worse as the year unfolds, and then, longer term, Sanjiv, it's been pretty unusual downturn for industrial demand. What do you think, what are you looking for to maybe see a green shoot or so longer term?

嘿，早安。我只是想快速回顧一下您對 2025 年的展望。當您考慮某種經濟萎縮時，第一季的銷售量是否下降了 1%？它是否應該保持在這個水平附近，還是隨著時間的推移會變得更糟，然後，從長遠來看，Sanjiv，工業需求出現了相當不尋常的下滑。您認為怎樣？您希望看到什麼，或更長期的復甦跡象？

So Matt, when you talk about the 2025 outlook in terms of the guidance that we provided?

那麼馬特，您如何根據我們提供的指導來談論 2025 年的前景？

Yeah, I think, Mike, I'd say let's start with not much different than how we normally approach it. So when you think about every 1% of base volume assumption, roughly 2% EPS impact, give or take, maybe 1.5% depends on the margin profile of the business.

是的，麥克，我想讓我們從與我們通常處理方式沒有太大區別的方法開始。因此，當您考慮每 1% 的基本交易量假設時，大約 2% 的 EPS 影響，或多或少，也許 1.5% 取決於業務的利潤狀況。

And so within that context, we still feel very confident around the backlog contribution. So that 1% we have will continue throughout the year positive. And then it's really just a function of the base assumption. And so we put a placeholder in there today, 2% negative EPS contraction, which represents about 1% to 1.5% top line negative base volume, and we'll see, I mean, what I want to reiterate consistent with prior times. This is not our economic call per se.

因此，在這種背景下，我們仍然對積壓貢獻充滿信心。因此，我們所擁有的 1% 將在全年保持正成長。那麼它實際上只是基本假設的一個函數。因此，我們今天在這裡放置了一個佔位符，即 2% 的負 EPS 收縮，這代表著約 1% 至 1.5% 的頂線負基數，我們會看到，我的意思是，我想重申的是與以前一致。這本身並不是我們的經濟呼籲。

It's just the placeholder taking kind of the current situation and extrapolating it out. We're going to take actions to mitigate. We're going to take actions to work around it, and time will tell what actually happens. So that's really how we did it. I'd say nothing really different than that. Sanjiv?

它只是佔位符，利用當前的情況並將其推斷出來。我們將採取措施來緩解。我們將採取行動解決這個問題，時間將告訴我們最終結果如何。所以我們確實是這麼做的。我想說的其實沒有什麼不同。桑吉夫？

Thanks, Matt. So on the industrial, long-term development might, it's difficult to predict next week, so you're asking me to look a lot longer than that. I'll tell you a different way to think about the industrial growth as we go forward. Obviously, we've talked about an industrial recession for some time now, and your comments, kind of illustrate that.

謝謝，馬特。因此，就工業的長期發展而言，下週可能很難預測，所以你要求我觀察更長遠的未來。我將告訴你一種看待未來工業成長的不同方式。顯然，我們已經談論工業衰退有一段時間了，您的評論在某種程度上說明了這一點。

As you think about the long-term trends, I'd say to you need to be looking at maybe three or four different elements that are going to drive that. The first secular growth, we've said before, things like in markets like electronics given AI data center growth, there is a direct correlation to what you see around semiconductor growth underpinning the electronics and market that we have and I think you should expect to see that growth continue. In fact, I said earlier on today in my comments on the backlog that I expect that we will continue to see that reflecting the recent win with Samsung, but hopefully others as well as we move forward.

當你考慮長期趨勢時，我會說你需要考慮推動這一趨勢的三到四個不同因素。第一個長期成長，我們之前已經說過，例如在電子市場中，由於人工智慧資料中心的成長，與我們所看到的支撐電子和市場的半導體成長有直接的關聯，我認為你應該期待看到這種成長持續下去。事實上，我今天早些時候在對積壓訂單的評論中說過，我預計我們將繼續看到這反映出最近與三星的勝利，但希望其他人也能像我們一樣繼續前進。

So there'll be secular growth drivers like that, that will continue to be an exciting part of the kind of growth algorithm underpinning any industrial recovery that we see longer term. The other piece that I think is worth mentioning is there are high growth markets around the world where we have obviously a very strong footprint.

因此，將會有這樣的長期成長動力，這將繼續成為我們所看到的長期工業復甦的基礎成長演算法中令人興奮的一部分。我認為值得一提的另一點是，在世界各地的高成長市場中，我們顯然擁有非常強大的影響力。

Being in 81 countries is an advantage in the sense that we are well positioned in the market that we expect to see either as a result of some of the arbitrage coming out of the tariff developments or as a result of just locally driven consumption driving growth in markets. So markets like India, which we kind of mentioned a couple of times, a bright spark as far as growth is concerned, obviously we still expect Mexico, Indonesia, and other markets like that to continue to have a growth trajectory that will hopefully help the overall industrial recovery.

涵蓋 81 個國家是我們的優勢，因為我們在市場上佔據有利地位，我們預計這要么是由於關稅發展產生的一些套利，要么是由於當地消費推動市場成長。因此，像印度這樣的市場，我們曾多次提到過，就成長而言是一個亮點，顯然我們仍然預計墨西哥、印尼和其他類似的市場將繼續保持成長軌跡，希望這將有助於整體工業復甦。

Last but not least is new growth markets. These are nascent. You don't hear us talk too much about it, but examples of aerospace where we are seeing significant growth and expect to see continued growth in that sector, I think is an area that will continue to gain in size and scale, and as it does, it will actually support the elements of growth that we talk about longer term. Longer term, I'll also say to you that you know quantum computing is another trend that we expect will have an option.

最後但同樣重要的是新興成長市場。這些都是新生事物。您不會聽到我們談論太多，但我們看到航空航天業正在顯著增長，並且預計該行業將繼續增長，我認為該領域的規模將繼續擴大，並且隨著它的擴大，它實際上將支持我們談論的長期增長要素。從長遠來看，我還要告訴你們，量子運算是我們預期會出現的另一個趨勢。

Well it does need to mature. It is still nascent technology, but as it matures and scales up, the fact that quantum computing requires cryogenic cooling is an exciting opportunity from Linde perspective. We have some great proprietary technology around that, and we're excited to see what happens in that space. Even today, we are providing some cryogenic cooling technologies, even for the pilots that are happening around the world.

嗯，它確實需要成熟。它仍然是一項新興技術，但隨著它的成熟和規模的擴大，量子計算需要低溫冷卻這一事實從林德的角度來看是一個令人興奮的機會。我們擁有一些出色的專有技術，我們很高興看到該領域的發展。即使在今天，我們也在提供一些低溫冷卻技術，甚至為世界各地正在進行的試點。

So I see that as another example of a new growth market that we'll continue to pursue those, will really drive that industrial recovery obviously underpinned by a recovery in the normal cyclical cycle that you know you'll see for most industries that will obviously come back. That's always been the case and we fully expect that. Obviously, a bit of stability around trade rules, and so on, and so forth will kind of accelerate that recovery as it happens.

因此，我認為這是我們將繼續追求的新成長市場的另一個例子，它將真正推動工業復甦，而工業復甦顯然受到正常週期性復甦的支撐，你知道，大多數行業顯然都會復甦。情況一直如此，我們完全預料到這一點。顯然，貿易規則等方面的一點穩定性將會加速經濟復甦。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Patrick Cunningham with Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Patrick Cunningham。

Hi, good morning. Healthcare starting to trend positively, positive growth year on year. How much portfolio rationalization is left to go there and when do you expect to return to the long-term growth rate? And related follow up, well, it's not currently at the top of the list for the administration, would you see de-regulation in US healthcare as an opportunity or perhaps a threat to limb care?

嗨，早安。醫療保健開始呈現正面趨勢，逐年實現正成長。還剩下多少投資組合合理化空間？您預計何時能恢復到長期成長率？相關的後續問題是，目前這還不是政府的首要任務，您是否認為美國醫療保健的放鬆管制對肢體護理是一個機會還是一個威脅？

So as we've -- let's talk about healthcare broadly, and I'll break it up into two parts. Obviously, we have a very strong hospital care business, that has got a steady growth rate, continues to be in low-to-mid single digits, and we see that across the world and obviously, post COVID there's been a greater appreciation of the need for setting up the infrastructure. And so therefore, some of the -- even on the equipment side, we see some potential continue to help with that infrastructure build out.

因此，讓我們廣泛地討論醫療保健，我將其分為兩部分。顯然，我們的醫院護理業務非常強大，增長率穩定，一直保持在中低個位數，而且我們看到，在世界各地，顯然在新冠疫情之後，人們更加認識到建立基礎設施的必要性。因此，即使在設備方面，我們也看到一些潛力可以繼續幫助基礎設施建設。

So I expect to see that, that growth continue to be stable, steady and continue going forward. The whole care business obviously in the US, attracts a lot of attention and we have been trimming that that portfolio as you're aware and we're leveraging technology today to try and make sure that, that business becomes more efficient, reduces the amount of paper that is there, digitizing a lot of processes, etc.

因此，我希望看到成長繼續保持穩定、穩定並持續向前發展。顯然，美國的整個護理業務都吸引了很多關注，正如您所知，我們一直在精簡該業務組合，我們正在利用當今的技術來嘗試確保該業務變得更加高效，減少紙張數量，將許多流程數字化等。

That's where I think the thrust of our effort in limb care continues to be. It's a book, it's a business that has to be focused on improving service levels and making sure that we are working on productivity every day. And as part of that, we will continue to look at our portfolio and whatever we need to do, we continue to do. This isn't a one-off exercise, we look at our portfolio all the time across all our businesses and the home care business is no different to that.

我認為這就是我們在肢體護理方面繼續努力的重點。這是一本書，也是一項必須專注於提高服務水準並確保我們每天都在努力提高生產力的業務。作為其中的一部分，我們將繼續審視我們的投資組合，並繼續做我們需要做的事情。這不是一次性的練習，我們會一直審視我們所有業務的投資組合，家庭護理業務也不例外。

John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So the US has seen some onshoring already. You guys have been a decent beneficiary on like the electronics front and semiconductor side with while the tariff situation doesn't seem quite settled at this point yet, if the US continues this kind of protectionist mode. See other opportunities in some of your other businesses where you might see outsized growth, whether it's tied to, there's some expectations for maybe aluminum and steel picking up in the US relative to other regions, that kind of thing. I guess can you help us to think about maybe some of the good guys around some of the tariff discussion versus all the bad guys we've been hearing about for the past few weeks?

是的，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。因此，美國已經出現了一些在岸外包現象。如果美國繼續這種保護主義模式，你們在電子和半導體方面都是相當大的受益者，而目前關稅情勢似乎還沒有完全解決。看看您其他一些業務中可能出現的巨大成長機會，無論它是否與某些預期有關，例如美國相對於其他地區的鋁和鋼銷量可能會回升，諸如此類。我想您能否幫助我們思考一下，在過去幾週的關稅討論中，一些好人與我們聽到的壞人有什麼不同？

John, I think the tariff discussion sometimes becomes one-sided where people are only looking at the risks around that. I think to your point, as the tariffs play out and as they stabilize, people will make decisions around reshoring, onshoring back again, and I think that's where you will see some movement. I will tell you in the short term, there isn't any development today that I can point to other than electronics where that has a substantive impact. But do we hear conversations and are we being people reaching out to us and having conversations around the potential of setting up new capacities in the US? Yes, we certainly are seeing some of that happen.

約翰，我認為關稅討論有時會變得一邊倒，人們只關注與此相關的風險。我認為正如你所說，隨著關稅的實施和穩定，人們將做出回流、再次回歸國內的決定，我認為這就是你會看到一些動向的地方。我會告訴你，在短期內，除了電子產品之外，目前沒有任何發展能產生實質的影響。但是，我們是否聽過這樣的對話？是否有人與我們聯繫並討論在美國建立新產能的可能性？是的，我們確實看到了一些這樣的情況發生。

So my expectation remains that as the conversations around tariff stabilizes, we will see more growth. I mean, the administration describes it as an industrial resurgence in the US even if that happens in part, it'll still be a very attractive opportunity for us just given our density across the US and our presence, we feel really good about the fact that as and when that onshoring, reshoring process takes off, we will be well positioned to participate in that and see some growth in that. I'm not going to speculate on the sectors or in markets where we're going to see most of that, but clearly, electronics already in play, as you know.

因此，我仍然期望，隨著有關關稅的討論趨於穩定，我們將看到更多的成長。我的意思是，政府將其描述為美國的工業復甦，即使這種情況只發生一部分，考慮到我們在美國各地的密度和我們的存在，這對我們來說仍然是一個非常有吸引力的機會，我們對這一事實感到非常高興，因為當在岸和迴岸過程開始時，我們將處於有利地位，可以參與其中並看到其中的一些增長。我不會對哪些行業或市場將會出現這種情況進行推測，但顯然，如你所知，電子產品已經發揮作用了。

We want to build the Phoenix supply to the Phoenix for TSMC. We're building at Taylor, Texas for Samsung. We're also building with other for other players in the US. So we certainly see that growth potential on the electronic side. For the others, whether it's aluminum, steel, batteries, and so on, and so forth, I think there'll be a number of markets and the potential for onshoring will look attractive, but we'll have to wait and see how that develops.

我們希望為台積電打造菲尼克斯的供應。我們正在德克薩斯州泰勒為三星建造工廠。我們也與美國其他玩家合作進行建設。因此，我們確實看到了電子方面的成長潛力。對於其他行業，無論是鋁、鋼、電池等等，我認為都會有多個市場，而且在岸生產的潛力看起來很有吸引力，但我們必須拭目以待，看看情況如何發展。

Great. Thanks very much for the colour.

偉大的。非常感謝這個顏色。

John Roberts with Mizuho.

瑞穗的約翰‧羅伯茲 (John Roberts)。

Thank you. Nice results. If general inflation picks up, do you think your pricing would accelerate or because of the weak macroeconomic backdrop here, we might get a disconnect between inflation and your pricing?

謝謝。效果不錯。如果普遍通膨上升，您認為您的定價會加速嗎？或者由於這裡疲軟的宏觀經濟背景，我們可能會看到通膨和您的定價之間出現脫節？

Inflation is, we are an inflation place. You've heard us say before, we like inflation. It allows us to move the pricing forward and absolutely, as we've said many times in the past, a good proxy for our pricing is globally weighted CPI. So as it picks up, there's an opportunity for us to continue to price that. There is no divergence to that model. We've done that over 25 years. We expect to continue to do that.

通貨膨脹就是，我們是一個通貨膨脹的地方。您以前就聽我們說過，我們喜歡通貨膨脹。它使我們能夠提前定價，正如我們過去多次說過的那樣，全球加權 CPI 是我們定價的一個很好的替代指標。因此，隨著它的回升，我們就有機會繼續為其定價。與該模型沒有任何差異。我們已經這樣做了25年。我們希望繼續這樣做。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

垂直研究夥伴的 Kevin McCarthy。

Yes, thank you and good morning, Sanjiv. From my perspective, Linde's had a very accurate and appropriately cautious view of China in recent years. So I'd be very interested to hear your updated thoughts on the near term, what you're seeing and hearing from your customers in April and May across and markets? And then in terms of, let's say, medium term planning for China, how much runway do you see on productivity in that country, specifically trying to counterbalance macro risk versus cost help in your algorithm within China?

是的，謝謝你，早安，Sanjiv。從我的角度來看，林德近年來對中國的看法非常準確且謹慎。因此，我非常有興趣聽聽您對近期的最新想法，以及您在 4 月和 5 月從各個市場的客戶那裡看到和聽到了什麼？那麼，就中國的中期規劃而言，您認為該國的生產力發展空間有多大，特別是在中國，如何平衡宏觀風險與成本？

So Kevin, given where we are today, it's probably easier to speak about the medium term than the near term, but I'm going to address both. I'm going to address both. Now, let's start with the medium term to begin with. And I've said this, a couple of times, I think it's worth repeating it. The days of 8, 7, 8, 10% growth in China longer.

所以凱文，考慮到我們今天的狀況，談論中期可能比談論近期更容易，但我將同時談論這兩個問題。我將針對這兩個問題進行討論。現在，讓我們先從中期開始。我已經說過幾次了，我認為值得重複一遍。中國8%、7%、8%、10%成長的日子越來越長。

And we are looking our medium-term view of China growth is it will be moderated to low-single digit from an IP perspective. I'm not going to comment on GDP IP is where we fall low, maybe low-to-medium single digit is the best we will expect to see out of China medium term in terms of growth.

從智慧財產權角度來看，我們對中國經濟成長的中期看法是，其成長率將放緩至低個位數。我不會對 GDP IP 進行評論，因為我們處於低位，也許低到中等的個位數是我們預期中國中期增長的最佳水平。

Our efforts in China over the last couple of years now, as you would normally expect, we will front run these efforts. We saw the development in China a couple of years ago and said we are treating Chinese business, our Chinese business as a mature business and therefore we expect them to take all the actions we would expect from a mature geography anywhere else in the world, which means pricing, productivity, automation. offshoring, non-value-added activities, and so on, and so forth. And I think we -- I still see a fair amount of productivity opportunities sitting in the Chinese business.

我們過去幾年在中國所做的努力，正如您通常所期望的那樣，我們將走在前面。幾年前，我們看到了中國的發展，並表示我們將中國業務視為成熟的業務，因此我們期望他們採取我們期望世界其他任何地方的成熟地區採取的所有行動，即定價、生產力和自動化。離岸外包、非增值活動等等。我認為我們——我仍然看到中國企業中存在著相當多的生產力機會。

Also, given that they are leading in many ways around the AIP that we are actually seeing the AI led use cases for China being quite attractive. I think we gave an example and one may have shown this video at one stage where we are rolling out a smart plant operations where we're using drones and robots to actually do a lot of the normal work that we would do on an air separation unit, doing readings, looking at pressure gauges, looking at temperature gauges, and making sure that that information is filtered into an AI program that then provides alerts and allows, human intervention to take place.

此外，鑑於他們在 AIP 領域的許多方面都處於領先地位，我們實際上看到中國以人工智慧為主導的用例相當有吸引力。我想我們舉了一個例子，有人可能在某個階段播放過這個視頻，我們正在推出一個智能工廠運營，我們使用無人機和機器人來完成我們在空氣分離裝置上做的很多正常工作，讀取數據，查看壓力表，查看溫度表，並確保這些信息被過濾到一個人工智能程序中，然後該程序會發出警報並允許人工幹預。

Obviously, that then results in being more productive at that particular site. In a couple of provinces in China, we've been able to get approval to reduce the amount of manning on the site as a result of that. So there's an example for you of a program that we are now rolling out to entire business in China, which will cover a large number of plants for us, giving us benefits coming out of productivity.

顯然，這會提高該特定站點的生產力。在中國的幾個省份，我們因此獲得批准減少現場人員數量。舉個例子，我們現在正在向中國所有企業推廣一個項目，這個項目將涵蓋我們大量的工廠，讓我們從生產力中獲益。

So expect strong productivity benefits from China to continue and that's kind of where that business stands. On the near term, let me just back from China about four weeks ago. I'm headed there in two weeks' time, and that's largely spending time with our customers, speaking to my CEO counterparts to understand how they're looking at the market.

因此，預計中國將繼續保持強勁的生產力優勢，而這正是該業務的現狀。就近期而言，我大約四周前剛從中國回來。我將在兩週後前往那裡，主要的時間是與我們的客戶相處，與我的執行長同事交談，了解他們如何看待市場。

And I'll give you a quick view on how I'm just going to give you Q2 as an example to what we're seeing in terms of outlook, which will I think hold for most of the year. So steel was very weak, metals generally and steel specifically was weak in the first quarter. We expect a mild recovery over there because there were a couple of turnarounds that happened in steel, but broadly steel for the year will continue to be lower than previous year. I think the metals market are reflective of the general industrial lower or declining industrial activity.

我將以第二季為例，簡要介紹我們所看到的前景，我認為這將持續一年的大部分時間。因此，第一季鋼鐵市場非常疲軟，金屬市場普遍疲軟，尤其是鋼鐵市場。我們預計那裡會出現溫和復甦，因為鋼鐵業出現了幾次好轉，但總體而言，今年的鋼鐵價格將繼續低於去年。我認為金屬市場反映了整體工業活動的低迷或下降。

As far as chemicals are concerned, we are also expecting chemicals to continue to be a little bit softer. And I think that, that trend is likely to hold for the rest of the year as well. And in fact, probably beyond that. So there's nothing to suggest, in either of those in markets, you will see anything different.

就化學品而言，我們也預期化學品價格將持續略微走軟。我認為，這種趨勢在今年剩餘時間內也可能持續下去。事實上，可能還不止於此。因此，沒有任何跡象表明，在任何一個市場中，你會看到任何不同的東西。

The areas of growth, the green shields are around battery and EV development. You read about it in the press. I visited the BYD facilities four weeks ago, spent time with the Chairman, spoke about their vision, and they have a fairly significant plan in terms of continuing to grow that base that they've built up on EVs. About 40% of all EVs in China, 40% of all cars in China are today EVs, and the expectation is that number will continue to grow. There's an example of some development of green shields around EVs and batteries. The other piece I think that is also growing at a reasonably fast pace of electronics.

成長領域，綠色盾牌圍繞電池和電動車的發展。您在報紙上讀到這個消息。四周前，我參觀了比亞迪工廠，與董事長進行了交流，討論了他們的願景，他們有一個相當重要的計劃，即繼續擴大他們在電動車領域建立的基礎。目前，中國約有 40% 的電動車、40% 的汽車都是電動車，而且預計這一數字還會持續成長。這是電動車和電池周圍綠色防護罩發展的一些例子。我認為，另一個領域是電子產品，成長速度也相當快。

The government has stated intent of becoming more self-reliant, and it is ensuring that there is incentive available for electronics companies to continue to expand and grow. Obviously, they don't go to the advanced node that you see with TSMC or Samsung or others, but nonetheless, in just in terms of the amount of chips being manufactured in China today, that the expectation remains that you'll see a lot of growth there.

政府已表明要更加自力更生，並確保為電子公司提供繼續擴張和發展的激勵措施。顯然，他們不會像台積電、三星或其他公司那樣進入先進節點，但儘管如此，僅就目前中國生產的晶片數量而言，我們仍然預計中國將大幅成長。

The areas where I see the greatest stress in the near term are going to be the merchant and package business which are really correlated directly to manufacturing and the fact that we have punitive tariffs in place that are going to upend that manufacturing process over there. We expect weak demand. I think there will be industrial deflation that will likely to continue in that in that space. And really, I think there will be pressure at least in the second quarter, potentially a little bit beyond that, as you think about that space around general manufacturing.

我認為短期內壓力最大的領域將是商家和包裹業務，這些業務實際上與製造業直接相關，而我們實施的懲罰性關稅將顛覆那裡的製造流程。我們預計需求疲軟。我認為工業通貨緊縮可能會在該地區持續下去。事實上，我認為至少在第二季度，甚至可能在第二季度之後，都會存在壓力，因為考慮到一般製造業的領域。

That kind of, I think is where things stand with China today do not expect and we have not built in and we do not expect any recovery in China this year.

我認為，這就是中國目前的情況，我們還沒有預料到，我們也不認為中國今年會出現任何復甦。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Josh Spektor with UBS.

瑞銀的 Josh Spektor。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in, Sanjiv. I wanted to follow up on one of your early comments in the prepared remarks. You talked about Europe and a more pragmatic decarbonization approach and leading to some encouraging conversations. So I just want to see if you could translate what that means for Linde? Where does that add opportunity for you? Is that projects? Is that demand or what does that mean? Thanks.

嗨，早安。謝謝你抽出時間給我，Sanjiv。我想跟進您在準備好的演講中先前提出的一條評論。您談到了歐洲和更務實的脫碳方法，並引發了一些令人鼓舞的對話。所以我只是想看看你是否能翻譯一下這對林德來說意味著什麼？這為你帶來了哪些機會？那是項目嗎？這是需求嗎或這是什麼意思？謝謝。

Thanks. So I think the simple answer to that is Europe has struggled with regulatory frameworks being led by ideology rather than pragmatism. And I think for the first time, not for the first time, we've worked hard at this over the last 18 months to get a general appreciation that low carbon hydrogen has a very important role to play as people think about decarbonization in Europe because that's the only way you're going to get a cost competitive solution for decarbonization of large industries which have substantive CO2 or greenhouse gas emissions.

謝謝。所以我認為，這個問題的簡單答案是，歐洲一直在努力應對由意識形態而非實用主義主導的監管框架。我認為這是我們第一次，不是第一次，在過去的 18 個月裡，我們為此付出了巨大的努力，以讓人們普遍認識到，當人們考慮歐洲脫碳時，低碳氫化合物將發揮非常重要的作用，因為這是你獲得具有成本競爭力的解決方案的唯一途徑，用於對二氧化碳或溫室氣體排放較大的大型行業進行脫碳。

And I think that's probably where my commentary earlier on my prepared remarks was reflecting on growing conversations and potential for regulatory change that will accept carbon capture and sequestration as an acceptable solution supporting low carbon hydrogen growth. A specific example of that would be you're aware that we have signed a project development agreement with Ecuador for the development of low carbon hydrogen projects in Europe and that would be a direct beneficiary if the regulatory framework was to move forward.

我認為這可能是我之前對我準備好的演講的評論，反映了越來越多的對話和監管變革的潛力，這些對話和變革將接受碳捕獲和封存作為支持低碳氫化合物增長的可接受的解決方案。一個具體的例子是，您知道我們已經與厄瓜多爾簽署了一項項目開發協議，用於在歐洲開發低碳氫化合物項目，如果監管框架向前發展，厄瓜多爾將直接受益。

We still have to wait for that to happen, but we do see greater pragmatism and certainly an openness to understanding the benefits and understanding the science behind the conversation we're having. Obviously in the US, low carbon hydrogen or blue hydrogen has a significant potential because of the support coming from the government through the 45 cube elements, but also because the natural gas pricing and availability underpins that growth.

我們仍然需要等待這種情況發生，但我們確實看到了更大的實用主義，並且肯定看到了對理解其好處和理解我們正在進行的對話背後的科學的開放態度。顯然，在美國，低碳氫或藍氫具有巨大的潛力，這不僅因為政府透過 45 個立方體元素給予了支持，還因為天然氣定價和供應支撐了這種增長。

And I would now like to turn the call back to Mr. Juan Pelaez for closing remarks.

現在我想請胡安·佩萊斯先生作結束語。

Thank you everyone for attending today's call. I wish you all a good day.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's call and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束，感謝你們的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。