林德集團 (LIN) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Linde third-quarter 2024 earnings teleconference and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加林德 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

(Operator Instructions) And I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Juan Pelaez, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

（操作員指示） 現在我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Juan Pelaez 先生。請繼續，先生。

Abby, thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending our 2024 third-quarter earnings call and webcast. I'm Juan Pelaez, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined this morning by Sanjiv Lamba, Chief Executive Officer; and Matt White, Chief Financial Officer.

艾比，謝謝你。大家早安，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。我是投資者關係主管胡安·佩萊斯 (Juan Pelaez)，今天早上我的執行長桑吉夫·蘭巴 (Sanjiv Lamba) 也加入了進來。和首席財務長馬特懷特。

Today's presentation materials are available on our website at linde.com in the Investors section. Please read the forward-looking statement disclosure on page 2 of the supplement, and note that it applies to all statements made during this teleconference. The reconciliations of the adjusted numbers are in the appendix to this presentation. Sanjiv will provide some opening remarks, and then Matt will give an update on Linde's third quarter financial performance and outlook. After which we will wrap up the Q&A. Let me now turn the call over to Sanjiv.

今天的簡報資料可在我們網站 linde.com 的投資者部分取得。請閱讀補充資料第 2 頁的前瞻性聲明揭露，並注意它適用於本次電話會議期間所做的所有聲明。調整後數字的調節表請見本簡報的附錄。Sanjiv 將發表一些開場白，然後 Matt 將介紹林德第三季度財務業績和前景的最新情況。之後我們將結束問答。現在讓我把電話轉給 Sanjiv。

Thanks, Juan, and good morning, everyone. Third quarter results once again demonstrated the resilience and resolve of Linde employees across the globe. EPS, ROC and operating margin reached new highs despite challenging economic conditions in most countries. But frankly, none of this came as a surprise. Some of you may recall that we anticipated sluggish industrial activity this quarter, and it played out as expected.

謝謝，胡安，大家早安。第三季業績再次證明了林德全球員工的韌性和決心。儘管大多數國家的經濟狀況充滿挑戰，但每股盈餘、ROC 和營業利潤率仍創下新高。但坦白說，這一切並不令人意外。你們有些人可能還記得，我們​​預計本季工業活動將疲軟，結果正如預期的那樣。

Looking ahead, I have concerns regarding continued economic weakness. So we've taken a series of proactive actions, including targeted cost reductions. Matt will provide more details on this charge, and it affects approximately 2% of the workforce globally and is expected to be mostly completed in the next few months. In light of these actions, it may be helpful to provide you additional color on the end market trends, which you can find on slide 3.

展望未來，我對經濟持續疲軟感到擔憂。因此，我們採取了一系列積極主動的行動，包括有針對性地降低成本。Matt 將提供有關這項指控的更多細節，該指控影響到全球約 2% 的員工，預計將在未來幾個月內大部分完成。鑑於這些行動，為您提供有關終端市場趨勢的更多資訊可能會有所幫助，您可以在投影片 3 中找到這些趨勢。

Industrial related -- end markets have declined 1% to 2% sequentially from the second quarter. This trend is consistent with our prior comments as well as the industrial-related macro-economic statistics. However, we did experience some positive growth over prior year, including in North America, which at almost 40% of global sales continues to be a bright spot.

工業相關－終端市場較第二季連續下降 1% 至 2%。這一趨勢與我們先前的評論以及與工業相關的宏觀經濟統計數據是一致的。然而，我們確實比去年經歷了一些積極的成長，包括在北美，佔全球銷售額的近 40% 仍然是一個亮點。

On-site and merchant volumes are slightly up in the US. In addition, North American project activity continues to progress. This said, these positive trends contrast with most of EMEA and parts of APAC, primarily China.

美國的現場交易量和商家交易量略有上升。此外，北美計畫活動持續取得進展。儘管如此，這些積極趨勢與歐洲、中東和非洲大部分地區以及亞太地區部分地區（主要是中國）形成鮮明對比。

The combination of geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty has suppressed large ticket purchases, which tend to correlate with industrial markets such as steel, glass and chemicals. Currently, we don't see any meaningful catalyst to reverse this trend for the remainder of this year and thus have embedded this view in our guidance. We believe this is the most prudent position to take at this time.

地緣政治緊張局勢和經濟不確定性共同抑制了大宗商品購買，而這些購買往往與鋼鐵、玻璃和化學品等工業市場相關。目前，我們認為在今年剩餘時間內沒有任何有意義的催化劑可以扭轉這一趨勢，因此將這一觀點納入我們的指導中。我們認為這是目前最謹慎的立場。

Conversely, consumer-related end markets are slightly positive versus second quarter with continued growth in food and beverage and stability in health care. Electronics was up high single digit over previous year. As expected, recovery in electronics continues to move forward, but at a lower clip. While recovery is slow, we fully expect electronics to provide sequential growth in the next quarter, including project backlog ramp-ups. Taken together, these trends point to a stagnant or slightly declining economic backdrop.

相反，與第​​二季相比，消費者相關終端市場略有成長，食品和飲料持續成長，醫療保健保持穩定。電子產品比去年增長了高個位數。正如預期的那樣，電子產品的復甦繼續向前推進，但速度較慢。雖然復甦緩慢，但我們完全預期電子產品將在下個季度實現連續成長，包括專案積壓的增加。總而言之，這些趨勢顯示經濟背景停滯或略有下降。

However, a combination of actions on pricing, productivity and costs, combined with contractually secured project backlog and robust stock repurchases continue to support our ability to deliver shareholder value regardless of the challenges. In fact, our backlog in the third quarter hit $10 billion as we signed our largest sale of gas project in company history. This contract with Dow Chemical is a testament to our disciplined investment approach to pursue and win projects in our core competence of reliable and cost-effective industrial gas supply.

然而，在定價、生產力和成本方面採取的一系列行動，加上合約規定的項目積壓和強勁的股票回購，繼續支持我們無論面臨挑戰如何交付股東價值的能力。事實上，隨著我們簽署了該公司歷史上最大的天然氣銷售項目，我們第三季的積壓訂單達到了 100 億美元。與陶氏化學的這份合約證明了我們嚴謹的投資方法，以尋求並贏得我們可靠且具有成本效益的工業氣體供應核心競爭力的項目。

Slide 4 provides more details on this $2 billion-plus investment for Linde. Dow is embarking on an ambitious project to achieve net zero Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions in their Alberta Canada complex through a series of initiatives, including fuel searching from natural gas to low carbon or otherwise known as blue hydrogen.

幻燈片 4 提供了有關林德這項超過 20 億美元投資的更多細節。陶氏化學正在進行一項雄心勃勃的項目，旨在透過一系列舉措，包括從天然氣到低碳或其他稱為藍氫的燃料搜索，在其加拿大艾伯塔省工廠實現淨零碳排放。

We're proud to be selected as the industrial gas partner to provide atmospheric acids, low carbon hydrogen and services for both CO2 capture and off-gas cleanup. For Phase 1, Linde's total investment is expected to be over $2 billion, underpinned by a traditional over-the-fence gas supply contract that aligns with our investment criteria. We expect this project to start up in late 2028.

我們很榮幸被選為工業氣體合作夥伴，提供大氣酸、低碳氫化合物以及二氧化碳捕獲和廢氣淨化服務。對於第一階段，林德的總投資預計將超過 20 億美元，並以符合我們投資標準的傳統跨界天然氣供應合約為基礎。我們預計該專案將於 2028 年底啟動。

I think it's important to note the size and scope we are undertaking. It's more than just low carbon hydrogen production. The clean energy transition will draw upon several different Linde capabilities, expertise and product offerings since integrated gas management solutions are in greater demand. In addition to supplying Dow, this investment will enhance our existing footprint and provide substantial density for future extensions.

我認為重要的是要注意我們正在進行的規模和範圍。這不僅僅是低碳氫氣生產。由於對整合氣體管理解決方案的需求更大，清潔能源轉型將利用多種不同的林德能力、專業知識和產品。除了向陶氏化學供貨外，這項投資還將擴大我們現有的足跡，並為未來的擴展提供足夠的密度。

In fact, we're already in conversations with future potential customers. All in, this project aligns well with our core strategy to pursue traditional industrial gas contracts with high-quality customers in key geographic regions of industrial density. Overall, we see a challenging economic future, but are well prepared.

事實上，我們已經在與未來的潛在客戶對話。總而言之，該專案非常符合我們的核心策略，即在工業密度的關鍵地理區域與優質客戶簽訂傳統工業氣體合約。總體而言，我們看到經濟未來充滿挑戰，但已做好充分準備。

Linde is heading into this uncertainty with the largest sale of gas backlog in company history, an incredibly strong balance sheet and a lean and well-focused workforce with a proven track record in successfully navigating typical conditions time after time. And while I may not be bullish on the global economy, I've never been more confident in Linde's ability to sustain industry-leading results while rewarding our owners.

林德正面臨著這種不確定性，公司歷史上最大的天然氣銷售積壓、令人難以置信的強勁資產負債表以及精幹且專注的員工隊伍，在一次又一次成功應對典型條件方面擁有良好的記錄。雖然我可能不看好全球經濟，但我對林德在回報股東的同時維持業界領先績效的能力充滿信心。

I'll now turn the call over to Matt to walk through our financial results.

現在我將把電話轉給馬特，讓他詳細介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Sanjiv. Third quarter results can be found on slide 5. Sales of $8.4 billion are up 2% from last year and 1% sequentially. Versus prior year, engineering increased sales 2% from higher project activity and higher demand for LNG infrastructure. While both cost pass-through and currency translation are down 1%. As a reminder, cost pass-through represents the contractual building of energy changes to on-site customers and has no impact to operating profit dollars.

謝謝，桑吉夫。第三季業績可在幻燈片 5 中找到。銷售額為 84 億美元，比去年成長 2%，比上一季成長 1%。與去年相比，由於專案活動增加和液化天然氣基礎設施需求增加，工程部門的銷售額增加了 2%。而成本轉嫁和貨幣換算都下降了 1%。需要提醒的是，成本轉嫁代表了現場客戶能源變化的合約建設，對營業利潤沒有影響。

Excluding these items, organic sales are up 2%, driven by price increases. Volumes are flat as growth from the project backlog is mostly offset by weaker base volumes. As mentioned earlier, the global industrial environment remains stagnant as many economies continue to report flat to negative industrial production levels. Despite these trends, operating profit of $2.5 billion increased 7% from last year, resulting in an operating margin of 29.6% or 130 basis points higher.

排除這些商品，在價格上漲的推動下，有機銷售額成長了 2%。銷售量持平，因為專案積壓的成長大部分被基數疲軟所抵消。如前所述，全球工業環境仍停滯不前，許多經濟體的工業生產水準持續持平甚至為負。儘管有這些趨勢，營業利潤仍比去年增長了 7%，達到 25 億美元，營業利潤率提高了 29.6%，即提高了 130 個基點。

Project contribution, price and cost productivity drove profit growth. EPS of $3.94 is up 9% from 2023 or 10% when excluding the impact of currency translation. These figures exclude a $150 million net restructuring charge, which represents severance costs for a 2% workforce reduction in the regions most affected by weaker volumes. We anticipate full run rate savings to be recognized in the second half of next year.

專案貢獻、價格和成本生產力推動利潤成長。每股收益為 3.94 美元，比 2023 年增長 9%，如果排除貨幣換算的影響，則增長 10%。這些數字不包括 1.5 億美元的淨重組費用，相當於受產量下降影響最嚴重的地區裁員 2% 的遣散費。我們預計明年下半年將實現全額運行率節省。

Slide 6 provides an update on our capital management. Operating cash for the quarter was $2.7 billion, 8% above last year and 42% higher than the second quarter. As anticipated, we saw a significant sequential improvement driven by interest, tax and incentive timing. I expect to maintain this OCF level for the fourth quarter.

投影片 6 提供了我們資本管理的最新情況。該季度營運現金為 27 億美元，比去年同期成長 8%，比第二季成長 42%。正如預期的那樣，我們看到在利息、稅收和激勵時機的推動下出現了顯著的連續改善。我預計第四季將維持這一 OCF 水準。

Our capital allocation policy remains stable with $3.4 billion invested into the business and $5.1 billion return to shareholders. In the third quarter, total CapEx spending is up 12% versus prior year, with project CapEx up 40% from executing the $7 billion sale of gas backlog, but base CapEx is down 4%.

我們的資本配置政策保持穩定，向業務投資 34 億美元，向股東回報 51 億美元。第三季度，資本支出總額比去年同期增加 12%，其中執行 70 億美元天然氣銷售訂單的專案資本支出增加了 40%，但基本資本支出下降了 4%。

As a reminder, the Linde project backlog only contains growth projects underpinned by a customer contract, with fixed fee returns that are protected with termination provisions. Our definition is unique and the most stringent across the industry. The base CapEx decline is from productivity initiatives as well as better aligning non-backlog spend with local market conditions.

提醒一下，林德項目積壓僅包含以客戶合約為基礎的成長項目，並具有受終止條款保護的固定費用回報。我們的定義是獨一無二的，也是整個產業最嚴格的。基本資本支出下降是由於生產力計劃以及更好地將非積壓支出與當地市場狀況保持一致。

I'll wrap up with guidance on slide 7. For the fourth quarter, we're initiating an EPS guidance range of $3.86 to $3.96, or 8% to 10% growth from prior year. This range assumes an economic contraction at the midpoint since we have not seen sufficient indicators of near-term improvement. In addition, this range assumes no currency impact, although the US dollar has strengthened noticeably in the last few weeks as we approach the US presidential election.

我將以幻燈片 7 中的指導作為結束。對於第四季度，我們將 EPS 指導範圍設定為 3.86 美元至 3.96 美元，即較上年增長 8% 至 10%。由於我們沒有看到足夠的近期改善指標，因此該範圍假設經濟收縮在中點。此外，儘管美元在過去幾週隨著美國總統大選臨近而顯著走強，但這一區間並未假設貨幣受到影響。

The full year range merely incorporates the Q4 guide and thus becomes $15.40 to $15.50, or 9% to 10% growth, excluding a 1% FX headwind. The top end was reduced by $0.10 from prior quarter since we updated our sequential economic assumption from neutral to a contraction. While no one knows for sure what will happen, we believe this approach is prudent for this environment.

全年範圍僅包含第四季度的指導，因此變為 15.40 美元至 15.50 美元，即 9% 至 10% 的增長，不包括 1% 的外匯逆風。自從我們將連續經濟假設從中性更新為收縮以來，高端比上一季減少了 0.10 美元。雖然沒有人確切知道會發生什麼，但我們相信這種方法對於這種環境來說是謹慎的。

In summary, global industrial activity has been weak, and we do not anticipate near-term improvement. In fact, geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainty only appear to add volatility and potential downside events.

總而言之，全球工業活動一直疲軟，我們預期短期內不會出現改善。事實上，地緣政治緊張局勢和監管不確定性似乎只會增加波動性和潛在的下行事件。

However, as Sanjiv mentioned, we're prepared for this uncertainty. We have the strongest balance sheet in the industry with the most disciplined project backlog at $10 billion, ensuring high-quality growth for years to come. We have a well-honed operating rhythm, enabling our employees to take decisive and timely actions for their respective markets. And we have the densest network across all three supply modes to capitalize on every growth opportunity.

然而，正如 Sanjiv 所提到的，我們已經為這種不確定性做好了準備。我們擁有業內最強勁的資產負債表和最嚴格的項目積壓，達 100 億美元，確保未來幾年的高品質成長。我們擁有完善的營運節奏，使我們的員工能夠針對各自的市場採取果斷、及時的行動。我們在所有三種供應模式中擁有最密集的網絡，可以充分利用每一個成長機會。

No matter what the future brings, I have confidence we will continue to deliver industry-leading performance. I'll now turn the call over to Q&A.

無論未來如何，我相信我們將繼續提供領先業界的業績。我現在將把電話轉到問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Mike Leithead, Barclays.

（操作員指示）Mike Leithead，巴克萊銀行。

I wanted to ask your guiding to economic contraction in the fourth quarter. It seems like some of the cost actions you're taking this quarter, there's perhaps some incremental macro caution that you're positioning for heading into next year. So can you speak to where in your business either regionally or end market where you're seeing the most macro pressures today?

我想問一下您對第四季經濟收縮的指導。看起來您本季正在採取一些成本行動，但您可能會為明年做好一些增量宏觀謹慎的準備。那麼，您能談談您目前在區域或終端市場的業務中面臨最大宏觀壓力的地方嗎？

Mike, I think as I said in my prepared remarks, you would have heard that I think describing the world, there aren't many bright spots. So really, in essence, we are seeing the European market, EMEA may have more broadly, clearly seeing pressure, and that's reflected in the volume developments that we see in that market.

麥克，我想正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，你會聽說我認為描述的世界沒有太多亮點。因此，從本質上講，我們看到歐洲市場、歐洲、中東和非洲可能面臨更廣泛、更明顯的壓力，這反映在我們在該市場看到的銷售發展中。

We've seen China where there was a short-lived euphoria around the stimulus. We know that the underlying industrial progression there is not reflecting that and unlikely to see a catalyst with change in the near term.

我們看到中國因刺激措施而出現了短暫的興奮情緒。我們知道，潛在的產業發展並沒有反映出這一點，而且短期內不太可能看到變革的催化劑。

So bright sparks or bright spots, as I defined that in those remarks, was really North America, primarily in the US, which has proven to be very resilient thus far. And is at a high watermark and we are hoping to see that slight sluggish or softness that we've seen, hopefully move back into a more stable and steady growth rate. We have other smaller countries.

正如我在這些言論中所定義的那樣，如此明亮的火花或亮點實際上是北美，主要是在美國，迄今為止，事實證明它非常有彈性。目前正處於高水位線，我們希望看到我們所看到的輕微疲軟或疲軟，希望回到更穩定的成長率。我們還有其他較小的國家。

India would be a good example where we are seeing consistent growth. We continue to be -- we are the market leader there. Therefore, we continue to be benefiting from that. Similarly, Mexico also benefiting like India from the near-shoring, reshoring strategies that people are deploying. So across the world, we see broadly the industrial recession or industrial weaknesses.

印度將是一個很好的例子，我們看到了持續的成長。我們仍然是那裡的市場領導者。因此，我們繼續從中受益。同樣，墨西哥也像印度一樣從人們正在部署的近岸、回流策略中受益。因此，在世界各地，我們普遍看到工業衰退或工業疲軟。

And we've been talking about for many quarters now, Mike, as you would recall. This is a new. And I think the actions we've taken now really are a reflection of our view of what we see the challenges going forward, but also the fact that there has been this long weakness in the industrial space.

麥克，您可能還記得，我們​​已經討論了好幾個季度了。這是一個新的。我認為我們現在採取的行動確實反映了我們對未來挑戰的看法，但也反映了工業領域長期存在疲軟的事實。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

You announced a decaptivation of two ASUs in India, I believe, earlier in the week or last week. Are you seeing more activity there or interest there, just given the weakness in the economic activity, are customers looking maybe to get some assets off their balance sheet? Or was that just something you've been looking at for a while until they came to fruition?

我相信，您在本週早些時候或上周宣布了印度兩個空分裝置的停用。鑑於經濟活動疲軟，您是否看到那裡有更多的活動或興趣，客戶是否希望將一些資產從資產負債表中剔除？或者這只是您已經關注了一段時間直到實現的事情？

I will talk about that specific opportunity first, and then I'll give you a slightly broader view of what I see around decaptivation globally. Let's start with the decaptivation that we did. The plants were being constructed by the customer who had sourced the plants from a competitor. They were very keen that Linde over those assets. Particularly because we were able to integrate them into our extensive network that exists today in Kalinganagar, Odisha, which is one of India's large steel enclaves.

我將首先討論這個特定的機會，然後我將向您提供一個稍微更廣泛的觀點，以了解我對全球去迷失的看法。讓我們從我們所做的去迷惑開始。這些工廠是由從競爭對手那裡購買工廠的客戶所建造的。他們非常熱衷於林德這些資產。特別是因為我們能夠將它們整合到我們今天位於奧裡薩邦卡林加納加爾的廣泛網絡中，該地區是印度大型鋼鐵飛地之一。

So we were able to provide a very innovative solution, both from sourcing energy but also providing safe and reliable supply from our asset network, again, leveraging that network density that we often speak about.

因此，我們能夠提供一個非常創新的解決方案，既可以採購能源，又可以透過我們的資產網路提供安全可靠的供應，再次利用我們經常談論的網路密度。

It's a great project. We have a long-standing relationship with our customer. The project meets our investment criteria and enhances network density. I couldn't have asked for a better combination of factors to come together when I looked at that. That is what we look for in decaptivation. You might recall a few quarters ago now, we've done a decaptivation for Wanhua assets in Fujian in China. And all of these exact metrics of these conditions were satisfied for us to take that onboard as well.

這是一個偉大的項目。我們與客戶有著長期的合作關係。該項目符合我們的投資標準，並提高了網路密度。當我看到這一點時，我無法要求更好的因素組合在一起。這就是我們在去束縛中尋找的東西。您可能還記得幾個季度前，我們對中國福建的萬華資產進行了剝奪。所有這些條件的精確指標都滿足了我們的要求，因此我們也將其納入考慮範圍。

So broadly on decaptivation, I'd say to you, we probably every year, this is not new, every year, we assess anywhere between 8 to 10 opportunities for decaptivation. We are selective about the ones we pursue because we see the ability to integrate them into our network and to leverage that benefit both for creating great supply options for the customer, but more importantly, we're creating value at our end as well. When network density is at play, we will certainly find these very, very attractive for us to take on.

總的來說，關於去束縛，我想對你說，我們可能每年都會評估，這並不新鮮，每年，我們都會評估 8 到 10 個去束縛的機會。我們對我們追求的目標是有選擇性的，因為我們看到有能力將它們整合到我們的網路中，並利用這一優勢為客戶創造良好的供應選擇，但更重要的是，我們也在為我們自己創造價值。當網路密度發揮作用時，我們肯定會發現這些對我們來說非常非常有吸引力。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

達菲費雪，高盛。

Question around the health care business. Earlier this year, you were pruning some parts of that. So can you just walk us through what's been pruned and what are we anniversary-ing? When does that anniversary end? And is there more to come? And then maybe just a third one to tap on to that. What do you think the structural growth rate is for health care '25 and going forward?

有關醫療保健業務的問題。今年早些時候，您正在修剪其中的一些部分。那麼您能否向我們介紹哪些內容被刪減了，哪些內容是我們的周年紀念日？週年紀念日什麼時候結束？還有更多嗎？然後也許只有第三個可以利用這一點。您認為 25 世紀及未來醫療保健的結構成長率是多少？

Thanks, Duffy. So let's go back to the health care piece. The headline of there is health care grew year-on-year, a small percentage, but it grew. And I think the home care part of our business, as you recall, Duffy, we have two elements to the Healthcare business. Hospital care, which is a very stable business that we serve across the world. And home care business that we participate in specific markets, obviously, a large market here in the US as well for home care.

謝謝，達菲。那麼讓我們回到醫療保健部分。標題是醫療保健同比增長，雖然比例很小，但確實增長了。我認為家庭護理是我們業務的一部分，達菲，您還記得嗎，我們的醫療保健業務有兩個要素。醫院護理是一項非常穩定的業務，我們在世界各地提供服務。我們參與特定市場的家庭護理業務，顯然，美國也是家庭護理的一個大市場。

Much of our pruning of the portfolio and cleaning it up was all around the home care business largely in the US. That, I would say to you, has largely been completed. In fact, you might recall in the last call, I said by the end of the year, I expect all of that cleanup to be completed.

我們對投資組合的大部分修剪和清理都是圍繞著主要在美國的家庭護理業務進行的。我想對你們說，這基本上已經完成了。事實上，您可能還記得在上次通話中，我說過，到今年年底，我預計所有清理工作都能完成。

I think we will see that done by the end of the year. We are on track structurally to see growth rates between low single digit to mid-single digit in the health care space. That's kind of our expectation, and I fully expect the health care business to be there as we look ahead.

我認為我們將在今年年底前看到這一點。從結構上看，我們預計醫療保健領域的成長率將在低個位數到中個位數之間。這是我們的期望，我完全期望醫療保健業務能夠在我們展望未來時出現。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

So, Matt, economic contraction in Q4, does that reflect seasonal slowdowns as well as perhaps longer-than-normal planned shutdowns? Or is this over and above what you would normally see seasonally and even extended year-end planned shutdowns?

那麼，馬特，第四季度的經濟收縮是否反映了季節性放緩以及可能比正常計劃的停工時間更長？或者這是否超出了您通常會看到的季節性甚至延長的年底計劃停工？

David, it's Matt. The way we think about it at your point, it is sequential. So to your exact statement there, we view it as a sequential contraction. And it would be across the base organic volumes. It would not be seasonal. As you know, we have a normal seasonal pattern that we view is consistent. But if there are extended outages, we would view that as a weakness, right? Because you tend to have an average outage for certain, you could call it holiday periods.

大衛，是馬特。我們按照您的觀點思考它的方式，它是連續的。因此，對於您的確切陳述，我們將其視為連續收縮。它將跨越基本有機卷。它不會是季節性的。如您所知，我們有一個正常的季節性模式，我們認為這是一致的。但如果停電時間延長，我們會認為這是一個弱點，對吧？因為您往往會遇到一定的平均停電，所以您可以將其稱為假期期間。

And when you see those extend on the front and the back end, that usually is because the customer may not have the order intake or the workload to work at a harder pace. And so they tend to extend around outages. So it does not include seasonality. It is only the base volumes.

當您看到這些在前端和後端延伸時，通常是因為客戶可能沒有訂單量或工作量來以更快的速度工作。因此，它們往往會在停電期間延伸。所以它不包括季節性。這只是基礎卷。

But to that extent, we definitely could see people extending outages given that. But I do want to just make sure I state that we don't know if this is right or wrong. This is just a view that's in the guidance. Obviously, we're taking actions around it. We're getting ahead of it. If this does happen, we feel we're prepared. If we're wrong and things are better, then that would be a potential upside for us.

但就這一點而言，我們肯定會看到人們延長停電時間。但我確實想確保我聲明我們不知道這是對還是錯。這只是指南中的一個觀點。顯然，我們正在圍繞它採取行動。我們正在領先。如果這種情況確實發生，我們覺得我們已經準備好了。如果我們錯了並且事情變得更好，那麼這對我們來說將是一個潛在的好處。

Peter Clark, Bernstein.

彼得·克拉克，伯恩斯坦。

Is one on the targets for the $8 billion to $10 billion investment. So well done on finally getting Dow's Path2Zero side into the backlog. My understanding is that certainly some of your close relationships getting very positive or increasingly positive on the space and maybe looking closely at signatures. [ LAR ] have been obviously very positive on US blue ammonia. Equinor, I think you've got some financing in place or some incentives in place in Europe, these companies very close to particularly with BASF and the Freeport feasibility study that has dragged out as well going on.

是 80 億至 100 億美元投資目標之一。最終將陶氏化學的 Path2Zero 方面納入積壓工作，做得很好。我的理解是，您的一些親密關係肯定會在這個領域變得非常積極或越來越積極，並且可能會密切關注簽名。 [LAR] 顯然對美國藍氨非常積極。Equinor，我認為您在歐洲已經獲得了一些融資或一些激勵措施，這些公司非常接近，特別是與巴斯夫和自由港可行性研究，該研究也一直在進行中。

Just if you can comment around that sort of scenario because you still got $8 billion to $10 billion out there, you're halfway there pretty much. You've obviously got some confidence you're going to get that target.

如果你能對這種情況發表評論，因為你仍然有 80 億到 100 億美元的資金，那麼你就已經成功了一半。顯然，您對實現該目標有一定的信心。

Thanks, Peter. So let's start off with just assessing where we stand against that $8 billion to $10 billion, and I'll probably give you a slightly broader overview of what development we are seeing around hydrogen. On the $8 billion to $10 billion, as you rightly put it, I feel pretty confident about where we are. We've signed up about half of that between OCI and obviously, Dow Phase 1. Peter, you'll remember that Dow has a Phase 2, which we haven't obviously committed to just yet, but that will develop in its own course.

謝謝，彼得。因此，讓我們先評估一下我們在 80 億至 100 億美元之間的處境，然後我可能會給您一個稍微更廣泛的概述，介紹我們在氫方面所看到的發展。正如你所說，在 80 億到 100 億美元之間，我對我們的處境非常有信心。我們已經簽署了 OCI 和陶氏第一階段之間約一半的協議。彼得，你會記得陶氏化學有一個第二階段，我們顯然還沒有承諾，但它會按照自己的進程發展。

Alongside that, we are doing a lot of front-end work at the moment on a number of projects. You referenced a couple of those already. And as I see the developments around hydrogen more broadly, I feel pretty confident that, that $8 billion to $10 billion number over the next few years looks pretty much intact and something that I feel confident about. I will, however, just step back and give you a broader overview on what I'm seeing around hydrogen.

除此之外，我們目前正在許多專案上做大量的前端工作。您已經提到了其中的一些。當我更廣泛地看到氫的發展時，我非常有信心，未來幾年 80 億至 100 億美元的數字看起來幾乎完好無損，我對此充滿信心。然而，我將退後一步，向您提供我在氫方面所看到的更廣泛的概述。

And I think you'll probably see this as well. So this shouldn't come as a surprise at all. But we have been talking about hydrogen developments and saying that there is a high degree of euphoria. So what we're seeing today is indeed what we had expected. I would segment the hydrogen development into the following elements and say to you, you are seeing and hearing a about a number of project cancellations getting announced recently.

我想你也可能會看到這一點。所以這根本不該讓人感到意外。但我們一直在談論氫的發展並表示人們非常興奮。所以我們今天所看到的確實是我們所期望的。我將氫能開發分為以下幾個要素，並對你們說，你們最近看到和聽到了一些項目取消的消息。

In fact, most of them tend to be around what we call renewable hydrogen or otherwise known as green hydrogen, and driven by a number of factors, but key amongst them the fact that incentives are unclear, regulatory framework is still being threshed out, capital costs are elevated. People haven't quite expected that or haven't done enough work when announcing projects early on to recognize that capital costs are on the rise.

事實上，其中大多數往往圍繞著我們所說的可再生氫或其他所謂的綠色氫，並由許多因素驅動，但其中關鍵的事實是激勵措施尚不明確，監管框架仍在製定中，資本成本升高。人們在早期宣布專案時並沒有完全預料到這一點，或者沒有做足夠的工作來認識到資本成本正在上升。

And last but not least, returns aren't as promising as people thought they might be. So in many ways, that initial euphoria is dying down and being -- getting a bit of a sanity check or a reality check. And what you see as a consequence of that is substantive projects, high-quality projects, which make economic sense are the ones that are still around.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，回報並不像人們想像的那麼有希望。因此，從許多方面來說，最初的欣快感正在逐漸減弱，並且正在接受一些理智檢查或現實檢查。由此可見，具有經濟意義的實質項目、高品質項目仍然存在。

That's a good thing for hydrogen growth and development in the long term. The good news is we are very selective on the projects we work on, and I feel pretty good about the projects that we currently are developing, most of those, as you would expect. And as we've said before, are in the low carbon hydrogen space or what otherwise is known as blue hydrogen.

從長遠來看，這對於氫的增長和發展是一件好事。好消息是，我們對我們正在進行的項目非常有選擇性，而且我對我們目前正在開發的項目感覺非常好，其中大部分項目，正如您所期望的那樣。正如我們之前所說，它們屬於低碳氫化合物空間或所謂的藍氫。

The technology is mature and available and scaled up today. There is operating expertise around that. And the end product is very cost competitive. All those factors become a key element when people are making decisions on how they manage their decarbonization projects, which are a challenge economically, as you know. So that's kind of where we see the trend today. And I'm pleased actually that reality check is in place because that's what we need for substantial development on the hydrogen space.

如今，該技術已經成熟、可用並擴大規模。圍繞此有營運專業知識。最終產品極具成本競爭力。當人們決定如何管理脫碳專案時，所有這些因素都成為關鍵因素，正如你所知，這在經濟上是一個挑戰。這就是我們今天看到的趨勢。事實上，我很高興現實檢查已經到位，因為這是我們在氫領域取得實質發展所需要的。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯，摩根大通。

Your sequential prices were flat. If you -- now we're in something of a deflationary environment. So if you exclude the negative pricing if there was negative pricing in your on-site business, was it the case that price-mix would have sequentially grown? Or maybe another way of saying it, did price-mix sequentially grow in your packaged and merchant business during the quarter? Or was it flat?

你們的連續價格持平。如果你——現在我們正處於通貨緊縮的環境。因此，如果您排除負定價（如果您的現場業務存在負定價），那麼價格組合是否會依次增長？或者換句話說，本季您的包裝和商業業務中的價格組合是否連續成長？還是平坦的？

Jeff, it's Matt. So a couple of things, I think. It's not an issue of on-site. And I wouldn't say we're in a deflation area, I would describe it more as disinflationary when you think globally. Maybe China might be deflationary. But so we're still seeing positive pricing across all of our base gases.

傑夫，是馬特。我認為有幾件事。不是現場的問題。我不會說我們處於通貨緊縮區域，當你從全球角度思考時，我更願意將其描述為通貨緊縮。也許中國可能會出現通貨緊縮。但我們仍然看到我們所有基礎氣體的積極定價。

And as, when we talk about 2% globally, the way to translate that because we tend to calculate it primarily just for merchant and package. It's about double the number of what you're seeing in merchant and package. So to your point, we still continue to see both positive sequential and positive year-over-year pricing there.

當我們談論全球 2% 時，我們的翻譯方式是因為我們傾向於主要針對商家和包裹來計算它。它大約是您在商家和包裹中看到的數量的兩倍。因此，就您的觀點而言，我們仍然繼續看到積極的連續定價和積極的同比定價。

Clearly, something like helium, I think we all know the pricing there is a little more globally based on supply demand. And there, it's maybe slightly declining to flat, and that could have an effect on there. But also when you look within the quarters, you're just going to have some timing impacts. I tend not to be overly concerned on that. Certain contracts, you'll have anniversary dates that the increases happen.

顯然，像氦氣這樣的東西，我想我們都知道全球範圍內的定價更多是基於供應需求。在那裡，它可能會稍微下降到持平，這可能會對其產生影響。但當你觀察季度內的情況時，你只會受到一些時間影響。我不太關心這一點。在某些合約中，您將有週年紀念日進行漲價。

So you can see some timing and lumpiness. We still feel quite good about the fourth quarter, where we stand and where we'll be on that. So I'm not overly concerned. I think our pricing still continues to track with the globally weighted CPI that we see in our regions. And I think the disinflation will have a little bit of a lower number at the global level, but it will still be positive and it will still contribute.

所以你可以看到一些時間和塊度。我們對第四季仍然感覺很好，我們現在的處境以及未來的處境。所以我並不過度擔心。我認為我們的定價仍繼續與我們在各地區看到的全球加權消費者物價指數保持一致。我認為通貨緊縮在全球層面的數字會稍微低一點，但它仍然是正面的，並且仍然會做出貢獻。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

史蒂夫伯恩，美國銀行。

You're going to build this ATR for Dow, and you're going to reform C3 and C4 alkanes not hydrogen dense methane. Have you designed an ATR like this before? And if you need or want more hydrogen then will be required by Dow to heat their crackers, will you have the ability to reform natural gas in this ATR if you develop your own network of hydrogen customers in the area? And then just lastly, is this whole approach of reforming cracker byproducts, is this something you could see potentially employed down in the US Gulf?

您將為陶氏化學建立這個 ATR，並且您將重整 C3 和 C4 烷烴，而不是氫密集型甲烷。您以前設計過這樣的 ATR 嗎？如果您需要或想要更多的氫氣，那麼陶氏將需要更多的氫氣來加熱他們的裂解裝置，如果您在該地區開發自己的氫氣客戶網絡，您是否有能力在此 ATR 中改造天然氣？最後，這整個重組裂解副產品的方法是否可以在美國海灣地區使用？

Thanks, Steve. Great question. So I think this is where Linde brings a huge amount of value, our ability to provide a technical solution that integrates various technology packages and kind of provide whatever is required by the end customer. So you've clearly spotted that. I'm going to just maybe take a minute and talk through what we're actually doing.

謝謝，史蒂夫。很好的問題。所以我認為這就是林德帶來巨大價值的地方，我們有能力提供整合各種技術包的技術解決方案，並提供最終​​客戶所需的一切。所以你已經清楚地發現了這一點。我可能會花一點時間談談我們實際上在做什麼。

So on the ground, we're going to put two large assets to your point earlier. There is an ATR of 300 million a day, let's say, which is going to process natural gas and as you would expect, normal ATRs to do, and provide hydrogen as a consequence of that. As you know, from an ATR technology perspective, the autothermal reformer provides very high concentration, high purity CO2 onstream.

因此，實際上，我們將在早些時候用兩項重要資產來支持您的觀點。比方說，每天的 ATR 為 3 億，它將處理天然氣，正如您所期望的，正常的 ATR 會處理天然氣，並由此提供氫氣。如您所知，從 ATR 技術的角度來看，自熱重整器可在運作時提供非常高濃度、高純度的二氧化碳。

So capturing that CO2 is a next step in our process, which we can do coming out of the ATR very easily. So that's one piece to your point, have we kind of designed this before? Yes, we are actually operating on in today and have been doing that for about four to five years, in fact, and it's, in fact, if anything, how the top so we provided that technology package, bring a lot of their customers because it's one of the best running ATRs anywhere in the world.

因此，捕獲二氧化碳是我們流程的下一步，我們可以輕鬆地從 ATR 中做到這一點。這就是您的觀點之一，我們以前設計過這個嗎？是的，我們今天實際上正在運營，並且實際上已經這樣做了大約四到五年，事實上，如果有的話，我們提供技術包的頂部如何帶來了很多客戶，因為它是世界上運行最好的ATR 之一。

So feel very good about the technology, having decided before, and we are currently building it also at OCI. So have a good track record on that. We feel good about the ATR technology overall. Add on to that, the second technology package, which is a PSA unit that we're putting, which takes the off-gas. Again, as you rightly pointed out, we will process the off-gas. We will clean it up. We will provide that clean hydrogen back to Dow.

因此，我們對這項技術感覺非常好，我們之前就已經決定了，目前我們也在 OCI 建造它。因此，在這方面要有良好的記錄。總體而言，我們對 ATR 技術感覺良好。除此之外，第二個技術套件是我們正在安裝的一個 PSA 裝置，它可以吸收廢氣。再次，正如您正確指出的那樣，我們將處理廢氣。我們會把它清理乾淨。我們將把清潔的氫氣送回給陶氏化學。

And we will provide the rest, either as fuel or if there is CO2 coming out, we will capture that as well and provide that for sequestration to Dow as well. So again, integrating that PSA unit plus the ATR is a very smart way of providing a great technical solution.

我們將提供其餘的，無論是作為燃料，還是如果有二氧化碳逸出，我們也將捕獲這些二氧化碳並將其提供給陶氏化學公司。再說一遍，將 PSA 裝置與 ATR 整合是提供出色技術解決方案的一種非常明智的方式。

The point you made on the Gulf Coast of Texas, we actually already do this in the Gulf Coast. So we have a track record of having built these PSA units to take off gas coming from the cracker, clean it up and provide it back to the customer. So we are actually applying some of those learnings that came out of that and creating a really solid solution here for Dow.

您在德克薩斯州墨西哥灣沿岸提出的觀點，我們實際上已經在墨西哥灣沿岸這樣做了。因此，我們擁有建造這些 PSA 裝置的記錄，用於排出裂解裝置中的氣體，進行淨化並將其返回給客戶。因此，我們實際上正在應用從中學到的一些知識，並為陶氏化學創建一個真正可靠的解決方案。

Stephen Richardson, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬理查森，Evercore ISI。

Sanjiv, it seems like we've had a bit of an acceleration of late on restructuring and potential exit announcements, particularly from the European industry, chemicals and the like. Can you talk at all about any conversations you're having with customers or any -- how you think about that as kind of a risk or an opportunity from your assets on the continent and how those discussions traditionally go to the extent that you do have customers that do want to shut down or restructure?

Sanjiv，最近我們似乎在重組和潛在退出公告方面有所加速，特別是來自歐洲工業、化學品等領域。您能談談您與客戶進行的任何對話嗎？ ？

So Steve, you're absolutely right that in the press, you read a lot about some of these proposed actions that large companies are taking. I can only tell you that currently, we've not heard from any of our major customers in Europe discussing major closures. So -- not to say that we don't keep a close eye on it. We are obviously tracking that very closely, recognizing the news that's in the air.

所以史蒂夫，你在媒體上讀到了很多關於大公司正在採取的一些擬議行動的信息，這是絕對正確的。我只能告訴你，目前我們還沒有聽到任何歐洲主要客戶討論大規模關閉的消息。所以——並不是說我們沒有密切注意它。顯然，我們正在非常密切地跟踪這一情況，了解空中流傳的新聞。

But as things stand, we haven't had any of those conversations just yet. I'll also go on to tell you that, and I think you know this already, but let me reiterate that when the customers do decide to undertake that part of shutdown, we have solid contracts in place that will ensure that we protect our investment.

但就目前情況而言，我們還沒有進行任何此類對話。我還將繼續告訴您，我想您已經知道這一點，但讓我重申一下，當客戶確實決定進行該部分關閉時，我們擁有可靠的合同，這將確保我們保護我們的投資。

And I think that's part of our model, and that's part of the contracting discipline that we bring about in every project that we undertake. So I feel pretty good about where we stand at least in terms of protecting the interest of our investors.

我認為這是我們模式的一部分，也是我們在每個專案中實行的承包紀律的一部分。因此，我對我們的立場感到非常滿意，至少在保護投資者利益方面是如此。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥克西森，富國銀行。

A lot of companies have talked about '25, I know it's a little bit early to give specific guidance, but a lot have hinted that they felt the first half of '25 would be similar to the second half of '24, which as you depicted not great. Is that kind of what you see initially? And then when you think about '25 in general, this growth algorithm, fairly similar, you got pricing potential, backlog and stock buybacks for now.

很多公司都在談論“25”，我知道現在給出具體指導還為時過早，但許多公司都暗示他們認為“25”的上半年將與“24”的下半年相似，正如你所見描繪得不太好。這是你最初看到的嗎？然後，當你總體考慮 25 年時，這種成長演算法非常相似，你現在有定價潛力、積壓訂單和股票回購。

So Mike, I'm sure you're key to hear from us on what 2025 will bring, but you'll have to hold on to that for a while because we come back in February and give you a very comprehensive view on that. As you might expect, we are internally putting a lot of energy into doing our planning for the next year, and I think those planned meetings are going to happen in the next three weeks. So we'll spend a lot of time thinking about that, talking about that, and we'll come back in February and give you a much better view and a lot more granularity on how we see 2025.

麥克，我相信您是聽取我們關於 2025 年將會帶來什麼的消息的關鍵，但您必須堅持一段時間，因為我們會在 2 月回來，並為您提供一個非常全面的觀點。正如您所預料的那樣，我們在內部投入了大量精力來製定明年的計劃，我認為這些計劃的會議將在未來三週內舉行。因此，我們將花大量時間思考、討論這個問題，我們將在 2 月回來，為您提供更好的視角和更詳細的信息，讓您了解我們對 2025 年的看法。

John McNulty, BMO Capital Markets.

約翰·麥克納爾蒂 (John McNulty)，BMO 資本市場部。

So a question on the sale of gas backlog. So you more than doubled it. It's up almost $4 billion just from the last quarter. It looks like down is about half of that. I guess, can you help us to think about the other half and kind of how to think about the mix of projects that are coming in?

那麼關於銷售天然氣積壓的問題。所以你把它增加了一倍以上。僅比上一季就增加了近 40 億美元。看起來下來大約是一半。我想，你能幫助我們思考另一半以及如何思考即將到來的專案組合嗎？

And I guess, tied to that, the Dow project is out relatively far for kind of your usual sale of gas backlog in terms of when it materializes. Can you speak to the timing or duration on the rest of the projects that you just added? And if that's more traditional and comes in over the next, whatever, 1.5 to 2 years?

我想，與此相關的是，就具體實現時間而言，陶氏計畫與通常的天然氣銷售積壓訂單相比，距離還比較遠。您能談談您剛剛添加的其餘項目的時間安排或持續時間嗎？如果這是更傳統的並且在接下來的 1.5 到 2 年內出現？

John, it's Matt. Yes. So I would start with -- our traditional projects upon a signing announcement, usually, it's about three years. That's, I would say, is a more normalized timeframe from announcement to completion and start up. Sometimes it can be a little accelerated if you have what's called the extensive reimbursable feed where you're preordering prior to announcement with reimbursement. But for the most part, I'd say it's about a three-year on a traditional project.

約翰，是馬特。是的。所以我會從簽署公告開始，我們的傳統項目通常需要三年左右。我想說，這是從宣佈到完成和啟動的更規範的時間框架。有時，如果您有所謂的廣泛可報銷提要，您可以在報銷公告之前進行預訂，那麼速度可能會稍微加快。但在大多數情況下，我認為傳統專案大約需要三年時間。

Clearly, with some of the large clean energy projects and Dow being one, where our scope is much larger. Hence, the amount is much larger. They tend to be a little on the longer end, more like four years plus at times just because the amount of scope we have to undertake is greater. So to answer your question, I would say, yes, the remainder of the backlog would be more of a normalized three year on average for contribution.

顯然，隨著一些大型清潔能源專案（陶氏化學就是其中之一），我們的範圍要大得多。因此，金額要大得多。它們往往會有點長，有時更像是四年以上，只是因為我們必須承擔的範圍更大。因此，為了回答你的問題，我想說，是的，剩餘的積壓將更多是平均三年的標準化貢獻。

And some of the larger clean energy projects could be more four-plus because of the magnitude of the scope. But again, it's always going to be a function of how far along we are on feed prior to signing a contract.

由於範圍之大，一些較大的清潔能源項目可能會超過四個。但同樣，這始終取決於我們在簽訂合約之前的進度。

John, I'll just add to tell you to give you comfort that these projects, and you know my view on backlog, right? A shrinking backlog is a good thing. And that's what's happening. This year, we're starting up about, I don't know, 29 to 30 projects this year. And we'll see about $1 billion of that backlog or just over $1 billion of that backlog come out. And we brought in Dow at the moment and a few other projects come back into the backlog to grow it back up. So that's exactly how we should be thinking about backlog.

約翰，我只是想補充一點，告訴你這些項目讓你感到安慰，你知道我對積壓的看法，對嗎？積壓的減少是件好事。這就是正在發生的事情。今年，我不知道，我們今年將啟動 29 到 30 個專案。我們將看到大約 10 億美元的積壓訂單或剛剛超過 10 億美元的積壓訂單被拿出來。我們目前引入了陶氏化學公司，其他一些項目又回到了積壓工作中，以使其恢復成長。這正是我們應該如何考慮積壓的問題。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗銀行。

Do you expect your capital allocation split to change in 2025 or 2026. I'm just curious on the path for repurchases over the next few years, given you've added some chunkier projects in the backlog?

您預計您的資本分配分配會在 2025 年或 2026 年發生變化嗎？我只是對未來幾年的回購路徑感到好奇，因為你們在積壓中添加了一些更厚重的項目？

Pzatrick, it's Matt. I'll start with the capital allocation process, no, absolutely no change, right? We view that as a long-term commitment on how we're going to allocate our capital. And so from that perspective, we fully expect it to be consistent for our ownership base.

帕札特里克，我是馬特。我將從資本配置流程開始，不，絕對沒有變化，對吧？我們認為這是我們如何分配資本的長期承諾。因此，從這個角度來看，我們完全希望它與我們的所有權基礎保持一致。

Just as a reminder, for those listening in, of what our capital location policy is, I can just reiterate it. We have an underlying mandate to maintain a single A credit rating and raised the dividend every year. So that's our underlying mandate. And after meeting that mandate, our priority is to invest in the business using our investment criteria.

為了提醒聽眾，我們的首都選址政策是什麼，我可以重申。我們的基本任務是維持單一 A 級信用評級，並每年提高股利。這就是我們的基本任務。在滿足該任務後，我們的首要任務是使用我們的投資標準對業務進行投資。

That's where we want to put our capital, but the projects have to meet our investment criteria. And then whatever is left over or buybacks. So we will continue to apply that approach. Clearly, as we generate more excess free cash flow, buybacks will naturally increase. But as we are seeing our sale of gas backlog rise, which it has now to the $7 billion, that means there will be more CapEx that will have deployment of capital to build these projects.

這就是我們想要投入資金的地方，但專案必須符合我們的投資標準。然後剩下的或回購的。所以我們將繼續應用這種方法。顯然，隨著我們產生更多的超額自由現金流，回購自然會增加。但隨著我們看到天然氣銷售積壓增加（目前已達到 70 億美元），這意味著將有更多的資本支出部署資本來建造這些項目。

We view that as a good thing. We view that as something for growth that meets our investment criteria. But from that perspective, I still right now feel our buybacks will be consistent next year with this year just because of the excess free cash flow generation. And clearly, when there are opportunities and today being one, we'll continue to take advantage of those as well.

我們認為這是一件好事。我們認為這是符合我們投資標準的成長方式。但從這個角度來看，我現在仍然認為我們明年的回購將與今年保持一致，只是因為自由現金流產生過多。顯然，當機會出現並且今天成為機會時，我們也將繼續利用這些機會。

Josh Spector, UBS.

喬許‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

I was wondering if you could talk about some of the moving parts in electronics. So strong performance year-on-year sequentially down slightly. You talked about improvement in the fourth quarter, but I'm not clear on your macro view if you're actually baking into the guidance or not. So can you talk about what happened within the quarter and what's actually baked into your guidance?

我想知道您是否可以談談電子產品中的一些移動部件。如此強勁的業績較去年同期略有下滑。您談到了第四季度的改善，但我不清楚您的宏觀觀點是否真的符合指導意見。那麼您能談談本季發生的事情以及您的指導中實際包含的內容嗎？

So the electronic sales, as you point out, Josh, are up 9% year-on-year. We've mentioned that we saw directionally electronics recovery go down the path that we had expected it to. It's maybe a little bit slower than expectations. So from a more macro perspective, we see that in line with how expectations have been laid out. .

因此，正如喬希您所指出的，電子產品銷售額比去年同期成長了 9%。我們已經提到過，我們看到電子產品的定向復甦正沿著我們預期的方向發展。可能比預期慢一點。因此，從更宏觀的角度來看，我們認為這符合預期。。

We see the investment commitments that have been broadly made by the large OEMs being in place as we look ahead to the midterm.

在展望中期時，我們看到大型原始設備製造商廣泛做出的投資承諾已經到位。

What happened in the quarter itself, sequentially, I mean, the comment that your -- or the question that you're asking about the sequential movement. Sequentially, gas sales were up. The difference here was that we have an advanced material business, AMT or LAMT, which also serves aerospace and electronics with some components. Electronics components saw some destocking in the course of the quarter, and we certainly expect that to get normalized in Q4.

我的意思是，本季本身連續發生的事情，您的評論，或您提出的有關連續走勢的問題。隨後，天然氣銷量上升。這裡的區別在於，我們擁有先進材料業務，AMT 或 LAMT，它還為航空航天和電子產品提供一些組件。電子元件在本季出現了一些去庫存的情況，我們當然預計這種情況將在第四季度恢復正常。

Hence, the confidence we say that we will see electronics come back, solid growth sequentially because of gases continue to be on the path of recovery and seeing that normalization on inventory happened those components that we provide out of the LAMT part of the business, which actually is reported in our global other segment, I think.

因此，我們有信心看到電子產品捲土重來，由於氣體繼續走在復甦的道路上，並且看到庫存正常化，我們將看到電子產品捲土重來，實現穩健增長，而我們從LAMT 業務部分提供的那些組件也發生了這種情況，這我認為，實際上我們的全球其他部門已對此進行了報告。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

凱文·麥卡錫，垂直研究夥伴。

At the top of the conversation, there was a lot of discussion about potential for macro-economic contraction. I was wondering if you could speak to company-specific or idiosyncratic sources of volume growth from your project pipeline.

談話的重點是關於宏觀經濟收縮的可能性的大量討論。我想知道您是否可以談談專案管道中特定公司或特殊數量增長的來源。

If we think about the project contributions over the next four or five quarters, do you think they'll be similar to the last year or so or higher or lower? And maybe you can talk about the next significant startups that you would anticipate over the next few quarters as well.

如果我們考慮未來四、五個季度的專案貢獻，您認為它們會與去年左右相似，還是更高或更低？也許您也可以談論您預計在接下來的幾個季度內出現的下一個重要新創公司。

So Kevin, I'll give you a high-level view and I'll let Matt give you a little bit more color on what we think from a numbers point of view as well. So from a high-level perspective, I'd say to you, within that project backlog are a number of secular trends. Electronics is a good example of that, that I just talked to Josh about.

凱文，我會給你一個高層次的觀點，我會讓馬特給你更多的色彩，從數字的角度來解釋我們的想法。因此，從高層的角度來看，我想對您說，在該專案積壓中存在許多長期趨勢。電子產品就是一個很好的例子，我剛剛和喬許談過。

We see that element of the backlog continuing to provide the growth and the startups happen as we would expect. We translate that and I've said in the past, if you think about our EPS algorithm, about 1% to 3% of EPS growth will come from that backlog, and that remains consistent. I've also said previously that I expect that backlog to continue to grow.

我們看到積壓的元素繼續提供成長，並且新創公司如我們預期的那樣發生。我們對此進行了翻譯，我過去說過，如果你考慮一下我們的 EPS 演算法，大約 1% 到 3% 的 EPS 增長將來自積壓訂單，而且這一點保持一致。我之前也說過，我預計積壓訂單將繼續成長。

Certainly, you can see that evidence this quarter itself when we're sitting at that $10 billion number of sale of gas backlog of $7 billion-plus. So again, that backlog translates into contracted growth. We will see that come through. I also mentioned that we see startups happen in the course of the year.

當然，當我們看到 100 億美元的天然氣銷售積壓金額超過 70 億美元時，您可以在本季看到這項證據。同樣，積壓的訂單又轉化為收縮的成長。我們將會看到這一點的實現。我還提到，我們在這一年中看到了新創企業的出現。

This year, we set about 30-odd projects being started up over $1 billion in backlog getting converted to revenues and earnings, providing that 1% to 3% of the EPS growth that I talked about. So I think that's kind of how we are looking at the backlog, thinking about it.

今年，我們設定了大約30 多個正在啟動的項目，這些項目的積壓金額超過10 億美元，這些項目將轉化為收入和收益，為我談到的每股收益增長提供1% 到3% 的貢獻。所以我認為這就是我們看待積壓、思考的方式。

Some more secular, we are seeing some high-growth geographies also in our backlog converting to revenues and earnings. A good example of that are projects in India, in the more traditional end markets, which are also converting, getting started and I think helping support the EPS growth algorithm. Was there anything else, Matt, you want to add?

從更長期的角度來看，我們發現一些高成長地區也在我們的積壓訂單中轉化為收入和收益。一個很好的例子是印度的項目，在更傳統的終端市場，這些項目也在轉換、啟動，我認為有助於支持每股盈餘成長演算法。馬特，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I mean, I could just kind of add even further color. I think to start with our algorithm and Mike might ask this question, I mean we still -- it's fully intact. That's how we view that. And when you think about how we look at growing our EPS in this environment, I think a simplified way we think about it is three buckets. It's the management actions that we take. It's the capital allocation that we do. And it's the macro.

我的意思是，我可以添加更多的顏色。我認為從我們的演算法開始，邁克可能會問這個問題，我的意思是我們仍然 - 它完全完好無損。我們就是這樣看的。當你思考我們如何在這種環境下成長每股盈餘時，我認為我們的簡單思考方式是三個桶子。這是我們採取的管理行動。這就是我們所做的資本配置。這就是宏。

And so when you think about capital allocation, specifically, that includes our project backlog. That includes M&A. That includes buybacks because we're talking about EPS here, so that is a use of capital. And it also would include any capital structure that we may do in terms of having synergies on either interest or tax. And so consistently, that has been 4% to 6% sort of contributory throughout the last couple of decades.

因此，當您考慮資本分配時，具體來說，這包括我們的專案積壓。這包括併購。這包括回購，因為我們在這裡討論的是每股收益，所以這是資本的使用。它還包括我們在利息或稅收方面可能採取的任何資本結構。因此，在過去的幾十年裡，這一比例一直保持在 4% 到 6% 左右。

And it's very stable, and it's unrelated to the macro because these are either contractually committed that are independent for the macro or it's a use of capital for the case of buybacks where ironically, it's almost countercyclical. So when the macro gets weak, we tend to have more free cash and we have more opportunities for buybacks.

它非常穩定，並且與宏觀無關，因為這些要么是獨立於宏觀的合約承諾，要么是回購情況下的資本使用，諷刺的是，它幾乎是反週期的。因此，當宏觀經濟疲軟時，我們往往擁有更多的自由現金，並且有更多的回購機會。

So we continue to have a high degree of confidence on that capital allocation and the stability it brings in the algorithm. And similarly, on the management actions. That tends to be mostly price less cost. It's a function of productivity. It's a function of the actions we take in every local market around the world.

因此，我們仍然對資本配置及其演算法帶來的穩定性充滿信心。同樣，在管理行動上。這往往主要是價格減去成本。這是生產力的函數。這是我們在全球每個當地市場採取的行動的結果。

Obviously, getting ahead of that and having the right programs in place is important, but we continue to have a high degree of confidence in the contribution of the management actions as well. The macro is the piece that's base volumes and FX.

顯然，領先並製定正確的計劃很重要，但我們仍然對管理行動的貢獻充滿信心。巨集是基本體積和FX 的一部分。

Clearly, we're seeing the dollar strengthen here just given some of the uncertainty. And a strengthening dollar, unfortunately, usually comes with a weaker macro. And so it tends to be, I'll say, positively correlated that when you see currency headwind for us, it usually comes with weaker industrial production levels. And when you see currency tailwind, it usually comes with stronger industrial production.

顯然，鑑於一些不確定性，我們看到美元在這裡走強。不幸的是，美元走強通常伴隨著宏觀經濟疲軟。因此，我想說的是，當我們看到貨幣逆風時，它往往與工業生產水準疲軟呈正相關。當你看到貨幣順風時，通常會伴隨著更強的工業生產。

So when you think about that algo right now, we are being cautious on the macro from what we're seeing looking ahead at least to the near term, but we continue to have tremendous confidence on the contribution from our capital allocation and from the management actions that we're going to take.

因此，當你現在考慮這個演算法時，我們對宏觀經濟持謹慎態度，至少在短期內，但我們仍然對我們的資本配置和管理層的貢獻充滿信心我們將要採取的行動。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

約翰·羅伯茨，瑞穗。

When you do a new ASU, I think of the baseload customer typically being about half the demand after you build out the enclave. And then when you build an SMR, I think of the on-site customer being 90% plus, after you complete everything. You build an ASU and an ATR in these new projects here. Can you sell out all the excess oxygen, all of the nitrogen, the argon, and what would the original on-site customer be in one of these projects after you build everything out.

當您建立新的 ASU 時，我認為基本負載客戶通常約為您建造飛地後需求的一半。然後，當您建造 SMR 時，我認為在完成所有操作後，現場客戶佔 90% 以上。您可以在此處的這些新專案中建立 ASU 和 ATR。你能賣掉所有多餘的氧氣、所有的氮氣、氬氣嗎？

John, that's a great question right at the heart of the network density conversations we tend to have in the company quite often. And I think to your point on ASUs, we normally expect our anchor customer when we put an on-site in to take up about 70% or thereabouts because that's kind of where we are able to operationally optimize the separation plan typically.

約翰，這是我們在公司經常進行的網路密度對話的核心問題。我認為，就您對 ASU 的觀點而言，我們通常期望當我們進行現場部署時，我們的主要客戶將佔據約 70% 左右，因為這是我們通常能夠在操作上優化分離計劃的地方。

And then obviously, we try and keep the balance to create the density that we need go further downstream, looking at merchant and potentially even package business and creating network density around that integrated model that we very often talk about.

顯然，我們嘗試保持平衡，以創建我們需要的進一步下游的密度，著眼於商家，甚至可能是打包業務，並圍繞我們經常談論的整合模型創建網路密度。

The example of Dow, I think, which is maybe what you're referencing over here, where we've got an ATR plus the oxygen is feeding into the ATR. So remember, over here, the surplus oxygen is quite little. There is some nitrogen available. Again, we are providing some of those atmospheric gases back to Dow as well for their consumption within their complex.

我想，陶氏化學的例子，這可能是您在這裡引用的，我們有一個 ATR，加上氧氣正在輸入 ATR。所以記住，在這裡，剩餘的氧氣很少。有一些可用的氮氣。同樣，我們也將其中一些大氣氣體送回給陶氏化學公司，供其在其綜合設施內消耗。

So it really is a great example of where we've been able to get the anchor customer to take a large part of the product slate. But we're also promoting density in the area, given that our established footprint in Alberta, we are able to leverage that to be able to place much, in fact, all of that product fairly quickly on the atmospheric side.

因此，這確實是一個很好的例子，說明我們能夠讓主要客戶佔據產品的很大一部分。但我們也在提高該地區的密度，考慮到我們在艾伯塔省已建立的足跡，我們能夠利用這一點，能夠相當快地將所有這些產品相當快地放置在大氣側。

We also have a little bit of extra hydrogen beyond what Dow will be taking, right? Dow was an anchor customer, and we will have surplus hydrogen left over, which we wanted to be able to build out the hydrogen network that we expect to have in Alberta.

我們還有一點額外的氫氣超出了陶氏化學公司的消耗量，對嗎？陶氏是主要客戶，我們將剩餘剩餘的氫氣，我們希望能夠建立我們期望在艾伯塔省擁有的氫氣網絡。

And in fact, my expectation is, as I referenced briefly in my prepared remarks, is that we will build on that foundation that we've got in Phase 1 of Dow to actually add capacity and build a significant hydrogen network in Alberta in the future.

事實上，正如我在準備好的演講中簡要提到的那樣，我的期望是，我們將在陶氏化學第一階段所取得的基礎上，在未來實際增加產能並在阿爾伯塔省建立一個重要的氫網絡。

So for me, in many ways, this is -- we're kind of literally building the foundation of what's going to be a very attractive network. It won't be at the same scale of what you see in the US Gulf Coast, but my vision is that, that's kind of directionally where we want to take the hydrogen network for Alberta as well.

所以對我來說，從很多方面來說，我們正在為一個非常有吸引力的網路奠定基礎。它的規模不會與您在美國墨西哥灣沿岸看到的規模相同，但我的願景是，這也是我們希望為艾伯塔省建立氫氣網絡的方向。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯·亞歷山大，杰弗里斯。

This is actually Dan Rizzo on for Lawrence. You mentioned the second phase or the next step with Dow, what you're not committed to. But I was wondering just kind of in a broad sense, is that like a magnitude larger if it were to happen after obviously after this one is up and running?

這其實是勞倫斯的丹·里佐。你提到了陶氏化學的第二階段或下一步，但你沒有承諾。但我想知道，從廣義上講，如果在這個專案啟動並運行之後發生這種情況，情況是否會更大？

Right. So I think there is an agreed time line over which that decision will get made. Obviously, we've done a lot of initial planning and done some thinking around how that phase will play out. That we would expect that investment to be just maybe a little bit lower than what we have in the first phase. So as and when that decision happens over the next few years, we will hopefully see an investment of substance being put to build on the foundation that we laid in the first phase.

正確的。因此，我認為做出該決定有一個商定的時間表。顯然，我們已經做了很多初步規劃，並圍繞著該階段將如何進行進行了一些思考。我們預期投資可能會比第一階段的投資略低。因此，當未來幾年做出這項決定時，我們希望看到在第一階段奠定的基礎上進行實質投資。

Okay. And then you mentioned obviously finishing up pruning in whole health care. Given what's happening elsewhere in other regions, is there opportunity for doing some pruning or kind of divesting in other areas outside health care in different regions around the world, such as like Europe where things are fairly soft still?

好的。然後你顯然提到了整個醫療保健領域的修剪工作。考慮到其他地區其他地方正在發生的情況，是否有機會在世界各地醫療保健以外的其他領域進行一些修剪或剝離，例如歐洲，情況仍然相當疲軟？

We're always evaluating our portfolio, and there is a lot of action that happens. Obviously, it isn't large enough for much of that to have a lot of visibility. But two pieces of that portfolio puzzle that I want to tell you about briefly. One is what we'd like to bring on to our portfolio. So tuck-in acquisitions is something that we execute on consistently every year.

我們一直在評估我們的投資組合，並且發生了很多行動。顯然，它的規模還不夠大，無法讓其中大部分內容獲得足夠的可見度。但我想簡單地向您介紹一下投資組合難題中的兩個部分。一是我們希望將哪些內容添加到我們的產品組合中。因此，我們每年都會堅持進行收購。

We have a fairly healthy opportunity pipeline in that space. And in fact, we brought on a number of those tuck-in acquisitions this year as well. So we feel very good about the ability to bring them on to our platform, if you will, integrate them well and create value as a result of that.

我們在該領域擁有相當健康的機會管道。事實上，我們今年也進行了一些此類收購。因此，我們對將它們引入我們的平台的能力感到非常滿意，如果您願意的話，可以很好地整合它們並由此創造價值。

So that's the incoming piece. And then alongside that, we're constantly looking at our portfolio elements and looking at where we divest. We've done that in the past as you're aware, and you will continue to see us do that more broadly as well.

這就是即將到來的作品。除此之外，我們不斷關注我們的投資組合元素並考慮我們在哪些方面進行剝離。正如您所知，我們過去已經這樣做了，並且您將繼續看到我們也更廣泛地這樣做。

Tony Jones, Redburn Atlantic.

東尼瓊斯，雷德本大西洋月刊。

Just a quick one to squeeze in at the end. Can I check my quick math that the new cost reduction and lift EPS by around 1% to 2%, if it all gained in 2025? And following up with that, is that incremental or will be part of the normal 4% to 5% EPS growth from price versus management actions?

最後只要快速擠進去即可。我可以快速計算一下，如果 2025 年全部實現的話，新的成本削減和 EPS 提升約 1% 至 2% 嗎？接下來，這是增量還是將成為價格與管理行動帶來的正常 4% 至 5% 每股盈餘成長的一部分？

Tony, it's Matt. I'll start with -- we expect this to be roughly a one year return, so you could do the math on that. And as mentioned in the prepared remarks, we expect the full run rate to take effect in the second half of next year. So based on that, you won't get the full benefit in 2025, but we would anticipate a majority of the benefit to be in 2025.

東尼，這是馬特。首先，我們預計這大約是一年的回報，所以你可以對此進行數學計算。正如準備好的評論中所提到的，我們預計全面運行率將於明年下半年生效。因此，基於此，您將無法在 2025 年獲得全部收益，但我們預計大部分收益將在 2025 年獲得。

When you think about this action clearly is incremental. This is something we feel we need to take. It is a bottoms-up approach. So each market aligned with what they're seeing in their respective regions and adjusting their cost accordingly. But we view this all part of this management action effort that we need to do to get ahead of this environment.

當你想到這個行動時，顯然是漸進的。這是我們認為需要採取的措施。這是一種自下而上的方法。因此，每個市場都會根據各自地區的情況進行調整，並相應地調整成本。但我們認為這都是我們為了領先這種環境而需要採取的管理行動努力的一部分。

So clearly, we see it as beneficial. We see it in incremental to next year, but this is all part of the effort we need to undertake, as I mentioned earlier, because our outlook on the macro is a bit weaker. And so we view we need to make it up in some other areas on which management actions would be one.

很明顯，我們認為這是有益的。我們認為它會在明年逐步增加，但這都是我們需要做出的努力的一部分，正如我之前提到的，因為我們對宏觀的前景有點疲軟。因此，我們認為我們需要在管理行動所屬的其他一些領域中進行彌補。

Mike Harrison, Seaport Research Partners.

麥克·哈里森，海港研究夥伴。

You mentioned that big ticket purchases have been a little bit sluggish due to economic uncertainty. Can you comment on what you've seen in hard goods and equipment and automation demand in North America or other regions? And I'm curious, have you seen any change in customer behavior in response to lower interest rates?

您提到，由於經濟不確定性，大宗商品的購買有點低迷。您能否評論一下您所看到的北美或其他地區的耐用品和設備以及自動化需求？我很好奇，您是否看到客戶行為因利率降低而有任何變化？

So Mike, let's talk about the hard goods business first and then we talk about interest rates. The biggest hard good market for us really is here in the US. And this is a trend we track very closely. As you've heard me say previously, I think of it as a bit of a leading indicator.

麥克，我們先談談耐用品業務，然後再談談利率。對我們來說最大的硬商品市場確實在美國。這是我們密切跟踪的趨勢。正如您之前聽我說過的，我認為它是一個領先指標。

We are right in the middle of the industrial weakness that we've referenced a number of times in this call because the hard goods numbers are actually reflecting that. We see about mid-single-digit declines on hard good sales. Now that is split. And to your point, there are some -- when we think about that sequentially, there are some large automation purchases that swung one quarter to the other.

我們正處於工業疲軟的中間，我們在這次電話會議中多次提到了這一點，因為耐用品數據實際上反映了這一點。我們看到硬商品銷售出現中個位數下降。現在已經分裂了。就你的觀點而言，有一些——當我們按順序考慮時，有一些大型自動化採購從一個季度轉向另一個季度。

So that I think does kind of change the numbers a little bit. But there is an underlying weakness on the hard goods side, I think, which is reflective of the industrial weakness we described more broadly across the manufacturing sector in particular. And that's consistent with what we are seeing on hard goods elsewhere in the world as well, although our largest market is the US, as I mentioned to you.

所以我認為這確實會稍微改變數字。但我認為，硬商品方面存在潛在的疲軟，這反映了我們更廣泛地描述的工業疲軟，尤其是整個製造業。這與我們在世界其他地方看到的耐用品情況是一致的，儘管正如我向您提到的，我們最大的市場是美國。

And reference to also the large ticket items that I think which ties in with your question on consumer behavior is that people across the world, and I think I'll talk about the rest of the world and then I'll come to the US market briefly. People across the world are finding that there isn't the propensity to spend and decisions on large spend items just isn't happening as you would normally have expected.

我還提到與您關於消費者行為的問題相關的大宗商品，即世界各地的人們，我想我會談論世界其他地區，然後我會談到美國市場簡要地。世界各地的人們發現，人們沒有消費傾向，而且對大額支出項目的決策也沒有像您通常預期的那樣發生。

And that's particularly true of places like China, where consumer sentiment, obviously, is down and a little bit of Europe as well where people see that economic weakness and recognize that there isn't a that's going to change that in the near term.

對於像中國這樣的地方尤其如此，那裡的消費者信心明顯下降，歐洲也有一些地方，人們看到了經濟疲軟，並意識到短期內不會改變這種情況。

So there is a degree of more caution that's reflected over there. Hey, the consumer sentiment and behavior in the US has been phenomenal. I think the economy has benefited tremendously from that. Obviously, we are seeing signals of some concerns around that, including some if you think about auto loans and other areas where delinquencies are on the rise.

因此，那裡反映出了一定程度的更加謹慎。嘿，美國的消費者情緒和行為是驚人的。我認為經濟從中受益匪淺。顯然，我們看到了一些與此相關的擔憂訊號，包括一些汽車貸款和拖欠率上升的其他領域。

But we're not seeing anything to suggest that in anticipation of the Fed's actions that sentiment is -- it becomes a lot more bullish. We haven't seen that, don't see that just yet. If anything, I think the consumer behavior does seem like it's tightening a little bit. But I'm happy to be proven wrong, and we'll see how this quarter plays out.

但我們沒有看到任何跡象表明，由於對聯準會行動的預期，情緒變得更加樂觀。我們還沒有看到這一點，現在還沒有看到。如果有什麼不同的話，我認為消費者的行為似乎確實有點收緊了。但我很高興被證明是錯誤的，我們將看看本季的表現如何。

And I would now like to turn the call back to Mr. Juan Pelaez for any additional or closing remarks.

現在我想將電話轉回給胡安·佩萊斯先生，請他發表補充或結束語。

Abby, thanks again for a great job today. Everyone else, thank you for participating in today's call. If you have any further questions, feel free to reach out. Have a very productive day. Thank you.

艾比，再次感謝你今天的出色工作。其他人，感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您還有任何疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。度過了非常有成效的一天。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束，我們感謝你們的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。