林德集團 (LIN) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q1 2020 Linde Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Juan Pelaez, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

各位女士、先生，感謝您稍候，歡迎參加林德（Linde）2020 年第一季（Q1 2020）財報電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。（接線員指示）現在我想把會議交給今天的講者——投資人關係主管 Juan Pelaez。先生，請開始。

Thank you, Racquel. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending our first quarter 2020 earnings call and webcast. I am Juan Pelaez, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined this morning by Steve Angel, Chief Executive Officer; and Matt White, Chief Financial Officer. Today's presentation materials are available on our website at linde.com in the Investors section. Please read the forward-looking statement disclosure on Slide 2 of the presentation and note that it applies to all statements made during this teleconference. The reconciliations of the adjusted numbers are in the appendix to this presentation. Steve and Matt will now give an update on Linde's first quarter performance, and we'll then be available to answer questions. Let me turn the call over to Steve.

謝謝你，Racquel。各位早安，感謝各位參加我們 2020 年第一季財報電話會議與網路直播。我是投資人關係主管 Juan Pelaez，今天早上與我一同出席的還有執行長 Steve Angel，以及財務長 Matt White。今天的簡報資料可在我們網站 linde.com 的「投資人」專區取得。請閱讀簡報第 2 頁投影片中的前瞻性陳述揭露，並注意其適用於本次電話會議期間所做的所有陳述。調整後數字的調節表列於本簡報的附錄中。接下來 Steve 與 Matt 將更新林德第一季的表現，之後我們將回答各位的問題。我把電話交給 Steve。

Thanks, Juan. I am very proud of how our employees all over the world have responded during this crisis. Through our business continuity plans, including our remote operating capability, we have been able to continuously serve our customers while keeping our employees safe. We ramped up supply of vital medical oxygen to help our community hospitals fight this virus. We installed oxygen equipment for emergency and temporary care facilities practically overnight. Our employees performed heroic acts to get critical respiratory equipment like ventilators to people in need. We commissioned air separation plants for Samsung in the middle of this crisis in South Korea. And throughout all of this, we maintained best-in-class safety performance.

謝謝你，Juan。我對我們全球各地員工在這場危機中的回應感到非常自豪。透過我們的營運持續計畫（包括遠端操作能力），我們得以在確保員工安全的同時，持續為客戶提供服務。我們提高了關鍵醫療用氧的供應，以協助社區醫院對抗這種病毒。我們幾乎在一夜之間就為緊急與臨時照護設施安裝了供氧設備。我們的員工做出了英勇的行動，將呼吸器等關鍵呼吸設備送到有需要的人手中。我們在南韓於這場危機期間，仍為三星投產了空氣分離裝置。在這一切過程中，我們維持了同級最佳的安全績效。

Our respiratory home care business in the U.S., Lincare, has become an important second line of defense to fight COVID-19, providing ventilators to hospitals, transitioning thousands of patients from hospital to home care and maintaining continuous respiratory care for their base of 1.6 million home care patients. Some of you are aware that Linde has entered the market to provide inhaled nitric oxide therapy to patients in the U.S. Inhaled nitric oxide is most widely known as a treatment for infants in respiratory distress, commonly known as blue baby syndrome. But more recently, nitric oxide has been used as a treatment for COVID-19 by doctors around the world. This is just a few examples of what we are doing in health care to fight COVID and other respiratory illnesses. I might add that the government does recognize the critical role, a world-class respiratory home care company like Lincare provides during a crisis like this.

我們在美國的居家呼吸照護業務 Lincare，已成為對抗 COVID-19 的重要第二道防線：為醫院提供呼吸器、將數以千計的病患從醫院轉銜至居家照護，並為其 160 萬名居家照護病患基礎提供不中斷的呼吸照護。各位之中有些人可能知道，林德已進入美國市場，為病患提供吸入一氧化氮治療。吸入一氧化氮最廣為人知的是用於治療呼吸窘迫的嬰兒，通常稱為「藍嬰症」。但近來，全球各地的醫師也將一氧化氮用作 COVID-19 的治療方式。以上只是我們在醫療照護領域為對抗 COVID 與其他呼吸道疾病所做工作的幾個例子。我也補充說明，政府確實認可像 Lincare 這樣世界級居家呼吸照護公司在此類危機中所扮演的關鍵角色。

Please turn to Slide 3. We have talked about the resiliency of our business for years. Our Q1 results and full year outlook should give you further proof of that resiliency. What is it that makes us so resilient? First of all, our commercial terms and conditions guarantee us a steady stream of cash flow. We serve diversified end markets, including health care, food, beverage and electronics. These markets are more defensive, but also offer nice opportunities for growth. Our business is local. We source, produce and sell our products locally. We are not directly impacted by supply chain disruptions. And because we operate our businesses locally, we know exactly how to align our cost structure with the market realities on the ground. The $9.5 billion of projects in our backlog are all under contract and protected by terms and conditions that lock in a significant portion of our expected return. For example, our date-certain provision guarantees that we will receive our take-or-pay when we are ready to supply our product as opposed to when the customer is ready to take the product. Do we expect to see some slippage of scheduled? Yes, but no cancellations. That would be way too expensive for our customers. Who are the customers of these projects, you may ask. They are blue chip companies you know well, like Samsung, TSMC, ExxonMobil, Shell, BASF and Phillips 66.

請翻到第 3 頁投影片。我們多年來一直在談我們業務的韌性。我們第一季的結果以及全年展望，應能進一步證明這種韌性。究竟是什麼讓我們如此具韌性？首先，我們的商業條款與條件確保我們擁有穩定的現金流入。我們服務多元化的終端市場，包括醫療照護、食品、飲料與電子產業。這些市場較具防禦性，同時也提供良好的成長機會。我們的業務具在地性。我們在地採購、在地生產並在地銷售產品。我們不會直接受到供應鏈中斷的影響。而且由於我們在地營運，我們清楚知道如何依據當地市場現實來調整成本結構。我們積壓訂單中的 95 億美元專案皆已簽約，並受到條款與條件保障，可鎖定我們預期報酬的相當大一部分。例如，我們的「確定日期」條款保證：當我們準備好供應產品時（而非客戶準備好提貨時），我們就能收到「照付不議（take-or-pay）」款項。我們是否預期排程會有一些延後？是的，但不會取消。因為對我們的客戶而言，取消的成本將過於高昂。你可能會問，這些專案的客戶是誰？他們是你非常熟悉的藍籌公司，例如三星、台積電（TSMC）、埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）、殼牌（Shell）、巴斯夫（BASF）以及 Phillips 66。

Obviously, no one really knows what this recovery will look like. What I do know is we have a very resilient business model operated by a highly capable, experienced and dedicated global team. If the financial crisis of 2009 is any guide, we held EPS flat ex the effects of currency. And we doubled our free cash flow. And though volumes were down double digits, pricing was positive. We also raised our dividend, just as we have done now for 27 straight years. And we have no intention of ending that streak now.

顯然，沒有人真正知道這次復甦會呈現什麼樣貌。但我知道的是，我們擁有非常具韌性的商業模式，並由一支能力卓越、經驗豐富且投入的全球團隊來運作。如果 2009 年金融危機可作為參考，我們在排除匯率影響後的每股盈餘（EPS）維持持平。而我們的自由現金流則翻倍。即使銷量出現兩位數下滑，價格仍為正成長。我們也提高了股利，就如同我們現在已連續 27 年所做的一樣。我們無意在此刻終止這項紀錄。

We do have growth opportunities, both during and on the other side of this crisis. I have already mentioned a few in the health care space. I expect electronics to remain strong, particularly semiconductors, driven by the demand for IT infrastructure as our economy shifts more towards virtual work, the growth of artificial intelligence, and the rollout of 5G communications. We will be starting up our project backlog over the next several years. And we expect to see continued growth from merger synergies. I talked about this in our last call. It is leveraging the joint capabilities of our 2 companies across a larger global footprint. That includes applications, particularly in more resilient end markets an A to Z portfolio of product line plants and the opportunity to further optimize each plant size from a total cost of ownership standpoint.

在這場危機期間以及危機過後，我們確實都有成長機會。我先前已在醫療照護領域提到幾項。我預期電子產業將維持強勁，尤其是半導體；其動能來自於隨著經濟更趨向虛擬工作而帶動的 IT 基礎設施需求、人工智慧的成長，以及 5G 通訊的推進。未來幾年我們將陸續啟動積壓訂單中的專案。我們也預期併購綜效將持續帶來成長。我在上一次電話會議中談過這點。這是透過在更大的全球版圖上，整合我們兩家公司共同的能力來實現。其中包括應用面，特別是在更具韌性的終端市場；從 A 到 Z 的產品線工廠組合；以及從總持有成本（TCO）角度進一步最佳化各工廠規模的機會。

I also expect to see more acquisition opportunities like decaps. But we have to be selective here. I have no interest in being the lender of last resort. But the most exciting opportunities will come as the world drives towards a lower carbon future, especially green hydrogen for mobility. I expect this alone to become a multibillion-dollar business for Linde. I have said before that I wouldn't trade places with anybody. That has never been more true than it is today. It's a privilege to lead this company and this team. I will now turn it over to Matt to discuss Q1 results and outlook.

我也預期會出現更多像「剝離資產（decaps）」這類的併購機會。但我們必須有所選擇。我無意成為最後貸款人。不過，最令人振奮的機會將來自全球邁向低碳未來的趨勢，尤其是用於移動領域的綠氫。我預期僅此一項就會成為林德數十億美元規模的業務。我以前說過，我不會想和任何人交換位置。而這句話在今天比以往任何時候都更為真實。能夠領導這家公司與這個團隊是一種榮幸。接下來我把時間交給 Matt，請他說明第一季結果與展望。

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. The consolidated first quarter results can be found on Slide 4. Sales of $6.7 billion decreased 5% sequentially and 3% from prior year quarter. Excluding foreign currency translation and cost pass-thru, underlying sales fell 3% sequentially but increased 1% over prior year. Volumes fell 4% sequentially, which includes 2% from engineering timing and 1% from COVID impact. The remaining sequential volume decrease of 1% is mostly seasonal from Chinese New Year and Australian LPG sales.

謝謝你，Steve，各位早安。合併後的第一季結果可在第 4 頁投影片中找到。銷售額 67 億美元，較前一季下降 5%，較去年同期下降 3%。若排除外幣換算與成本轉嫁（cost pass-thru），基礎銷售額較前一季下降 3%，但較去年同期增加 1%。銷量較前一季下降 4%，其中包含 2% 來自工程業務時點因素，以及 1% 來自 COVID 的影響。其餘 1% 的季比銷量下滑主要屬季節性因素，來自中國農曆新年以及澳洲 LPG 銷售。

Year-over-year volumes declined 1% due to the impact from COVID. Excluding that, higher growth from project start-ups and resilient end markets were mostly offset by engineering timing and prior year sales of equipment. We achieved pricing improvements across both periods and anticipate continued positive momentum from a combination of past and future actions. Operating profit of $1.4 billion was flat with the fourth quarter but increased 11% over prior year. Even with multiple headwinds of COVID, foreign currency translation and economic weakness, we managed to grow operating profit double-digit percent from prior year. Furthermore, we held this profit equal to the fourth quarter, despite these issues and significant seasonal factors, especially in the APAC segment.

年對年銷量因 COVID 的影響下滑 1%。若排除此因素，專案啟動帶來的較高成長與具韌性的終端市場表現，主要被工程時點差異以及前一年度設備銷售所大致抵銷。我們在兩個期間均實現了定價改善，並預期在過去與未來行動的共同作用下，將持續保持正向動能。營業利益為 14 億美元，與第四季持平，但較去年同期增加 11%。即使面臨 COVID、外幣換算與經濟疲弱等多重逆風，我們仍成功使營業利益較去年同期以兩位數百分比成長。此外，儘管存在上述問題與顯著的季節性因素（尤其在亞太（APAC）部門），我們仍將該獲利維持與第四季相當。

Operating margins of 20.1% improved 240 basis points from prior year and 110 basis points from the fourth quarter. Price and productivity efforts continue to support improvements in business quality despite weaker volumes. As Steve mentioned, we have a very resilient business model, which will serve us well in this uncertain environment. Net income growth was less than operating profit growth, primarily due to lower equity income this quarter. Both equity income and interest expense were unfavorably impacted by foreign currency revaluation of unhedged intercompany loans. While these revaluations had no cash impact, they did affect accounting earnings by approximately $14 million of interest expense and $12 million of lower equity income or roughly $0.04 less of EPS. Earnings per share of $1.89 is flat with the fourth quarter and 12% above prior year. Total COVID impact is approximately $0.05, with roughly half from China and the remainder spread across the world. For the first quarter, most countries include a few weeks of COVID impact, whereas our Chinese operations have substantially recovered. In addition, first quarter reflects approximately $0.09 of unfavorable noncash currency impact versus prior year from a combination of earnings translation and the unhedged intercompany loans. Therefore, underlying earnings growth was quite strong, which is further validated by our cash flow trends.

營業利益率 20.1%，較去年同期提升 240 個基點，較第四季提升 110 個基點。即使銷量較弱，價格與生產力提升措施仍持續支撐業務品質的改善。如 Steve 所提，我們擁有非常具韌性的商業模式，將在此不確定環境中為我們提供良好支撐。淨利成長低於營業利益成長，主要因本季權益法投資收益較低。權益法投資收益與利息費用皆因未避險之集團內部借款的外幣重估而受到不利影響。雖然這些重估不影響現金，但對會計盈餘造成影響，約為 1,400 萬美元的利息費用與 1,200 萬美元較低的權益法投資收益，或約使 EPS 減少 0.04 美元。每股盈餘為 1.89 美元，與第四季持平，且較去年同期高 12%。COVID 的總影響約為 0.05 美元，其中約一半來自中國，其餘分布於全球各地。就第一季而言，多數國家包含數週的 COVID 影響，而我們在中國的營運已大幅復甦。此外，第一季相較去年同期反映約 0.09 美元的不利非現金匯率影響，來自盈餘換算與未避險集團內部借款的綜合影響。因此，基礎盈餘成長相當強勁，且我們的現金流趨勢進一步驗證了這一點。

Operating cash flow of $1.3 billion was 26% above last year. Recall that first quarter tends to be our weakest due to seasonality. So the year-over-year performance is more relevant. This improvement was driven by a combination of factors, including earnings growth, improved working capital and lower restructuring and merger-related costs. Also, it's important to highlight that this figure is true operating cash flow, not an adjusted figure, excluding working capital or other cash items. In this environment, it's more important than ever to manage all elements of cash. CapEx of just over $800 million is roughly split between base and project CapEx. As a reminder, project CapEx represents capital spend directly attributed to the sale of gas project backlog. This backlog comprises new growth projects contractually secured by long-term fixed payments and terms and conditions that protect expected returns. Conversely, base CapEx represents all other capital spending, including maintenance, cost reduction, and growth initiatives that are either below $5 million or not secured by a fixed payment contract. Base CapEx has declined almost 20%, and we anticipate lower spending the remainder of 2020, which will further support free cash flow.

營運現金流為 13 億美元，較去年高 26%。請記得，第一季因季節性因素通常是我們最弱的一季。因此，年對年表現更具參考性。此改善由多項因素共同驅動，包括盈餘成長、營運資金改善，以及較低的重整與併購相關成本。同時，必須強調此數字為真正的營運現金流，並非排除營運資金或其他現金項目的調整後數字。在此環境下，管理現金的各個要素比以往任何時候都更重要。資本支出（CapEx）略高於 8 億美元，約在基礎 CapEx 與專案 CapEx 之間各占一半。提醒一下，專案 CapEx 代表直接歸因於銷售氣體專案訂單積壓（backlog）的資本支出。該訂單積壓包含以長期固定付款方式合約性確保的新成長專案，且其條款與條件可保障預期報酬。相對地，基礎 CapEx 代表所有其他資本支出，包括維護、降本與成長計畫；這些計畫要麼低於 500 萬美元，要麼未由固定付款合約所保障。基礎 CapEx 已下降近 20%，且我們預期 2020 年剩餘期間支出將更低，進一步支撐自由現金流。

Finally, return on capital continues to improve, now exceeding 12%. Recall, this metric was 10.4% a year ago. So this is a substantial improvement in a short period as we continue to find ways to maximize profit and cash growth while prudently managing the capital base. Given the importance of cash and capital structure, I'd like to spend a little more time on the details, which you'll find on Slide 5. The left side of this slide provides our operating cash flow trends since the merger date in the first quarter of 2019. Recall that the first 2 quarters of 2019 had more merger-related cash outflows in addition to less impact from cost synergies. Overall, you see a growing trend of improving cash from operations, especially when considering the inherent seasonality. Beneath operating cash flow, we are subtracting base CapEx. Base CapEx is the normal day-to-day CapEx for operations and small growth initiatives and thus supports the current earnings base. Project CapEx is excluded because it has more acquisition-like tendencies with defined windows of spending for specific customer contracts. Per the Linde definition of project backlog, all projects support incremental growth from secured fixed-payment contracts. We have a high degree of confidence in project returns, and we'll readily invest in them when we can. Therefore, we shouldn't penalize free cash flow with contractually secured growth. So a more relevant metric, it's called available operating cash flow or AOCF.

最後，資本報酬率持續改善，目前已超過 12%。請記得，一年前該指標為 10.4%。因此，在短時間內這是一項顯著改善；我們持續尋找方法，在審慎管理資本基礎的同時，最大化獲利與現金成長。鑑於現金與資本結構的重要性，我想在細節上多花一些時間，您可在投影片 5 找到。該投影片左側提供自 2019 年第一季併購日起的營運現金流趨勢。請記得，2019 年前兩季除併購相關現金流出較多外，成本綜效的影響也較小。整體而言，您可看到營運現金流呈現逐步改善的成長趨勢，尤其在考量其固有季節性時更為明顯。在營運現金流之下，我們扣除基礎 CapEx。基礎 CapEx 是營運與小型成長計畫的日常 CapEx，因此支撐目前的盈餘基礎。專案 CapEx 則予以排除，因其更具類似收購的特性，針對特定客戶合約在明確的支出期間內投入。依 Linde 對專案訂單積壓的定義，所有專案皆由已確保的固定付款合約所支持，帶來增量成長。我們對專案報酬具有高度信心，並會在可行時積極投資。因此，我們不應以合約性確保的成長來「懲罰」自由現金流。所以，一個更具相關性的指標稱為可用營運現金流（available operating cash flow，AOCF）。

AOCF represents the cash we have left over to spend on specific growth initiatives or to distribute back to shareholders. You can see this is a substantial amount of cash, recently around $1 billion to $1.5 billion per quarter. Clearly, available operating cash is more than enough to cover the current dividend. In fact, this is what provides so much confidence in our ability to extend the streak of 27 straight years of annual dividend increases. Even after paying dividends, we have significant cash left over, and fully expect that trend going forward. We'll continue to prudently and responsibly allocate that excess cash toward attractive growth opportunities that meet our risk profile, including our existing $4 billion sale of gas project backlog. And while we purchased 10 million shares of Linde stock in the first quarter, we have temporarily paused the program to reassess the growth opportunities in light of the current environment. While certain customers are restraining future investments, new growth opportunities are emerging in other areas including customer decaps, tuck-in acquisitions and hydrogen initiatives.

AOCF 代表我們剩餘可用於特定成長計畫或回饋股東的現金。您可看到這是一筆相當可觀的現金，近期每季約 10 億至 15 億美元。顯然，可用營運現金綽綽有餘足以支付目前股利。事實上，這正是我們對於延續連續 27 年每年提高股利紀錄充滿信心的原因。即使支付股利後，我們仍有可觀的剩餘現金，並完全預期此趨勢未來仍將持續。我們將持續審慎且負責任地配置這些超額現金至符合我們風險輪廓的具吸引力成長機會，包括我們現有 40 億美元的售氣專案訂單積壓。此外，雖然我們在第一季回購了 1,000 萬股 Linde 股票，但我們已暫時暫停該計畫，以在目前環境下重新評估成長機會。儘管部分客戶正在抑制未來投資，其他領域仍出現新的成長機會，包括客戶去資本化（decaps）、補強式併購（tuck-in acquisitions）以及氫能計畫。

In addition to stable and growing cash generation, we have a high-quality capital structure, with some details provided in the upper right section of the slide. At the end of the first quarter, we had $4 billion of cash. Furthermore, our trailing net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at 1.5x. As a single-A-rated company, we continue to have access to low-cost liquidity through Tier 1 commercial paper, which is backstopped by an undrawn credit facility of $5 billion. Therefore, it's clear that Linde has a very high-quality balance sheet which will only strengthen from the growing resilient cash flow. This combination will enable us to quickly seize upon any new growth opportunities that emerge during these turbulent times.

除穩定且成長的現金創造能力外，我們亦擁有高品質的資本結構，相關細節載於投影片右上區塊。第一季末，我們持有 40 億美元現金。此外，我們過去 12 個月（trailing）的淨負債對 EBITDA 比率為 1.5 倍。作為單 A 評級公司，我們仍可透過第一級（Tier 1）商業本票取得低成本流動性，並由一項未動用的 50 億美元信用額度作為後盾。因此，很明顯 Linde 擁有非常高品質的資產負債表，且將隨著日益強韌的現金流而進一步強化。此一組合將使我們能在這些動盪時期迅速把握任何新出現的成長機會。

I'll wrap things up with the 2020 full year outlook on Slide 6. It's safe to state that no one knows how the economy will recover from COVID or what a recovery would even look like. However, we remain confident that Linde has a resilient business model in any macroeconomic environment, including today. To address this dichotomy, we felt the best approach was to provide a scenario-based outlook for the full year 2020. The left side shows the prior 2020 full year guidance of 9% to 12% EPS growth from 2019 or 10% to 13% when excluding an assumed 1% currency translation headwind. You can see at the top that we are updating the currency translation impact to a 4% to 5% headwind. This estimate is based on the weighted average exposure of foreign currencies and the forward rates at a certain point in time. As you all know, this is a noncash impact and will change with the daily rates, but it represents our latest estimate.

我將以第 6 頁投影片中的 2020 全年展望作結。可以肯定地說，沒有人知道經濟將如何從 COVID 中復甦，甚至復甦會是什麼樣貌。然而，我們仍然有信心，林德在任何總體經濟環境下（包括當前）都擁有具韌性的商業模式。為了回應這種兩難，我們認為最佳作法是提供以情境為基礎的 2020 全年展望。左側顯示先前對 2020 全年的指引：相較 2019 年 EPS 成長 9% 至 12%；或在排除假設 1% 匯率換算逆風後為 10% 至 13%。你們可以在上方看到，我們將匯率換算影響更新為 4% 至 5% 的逆風。此估計係基於外幣的加權平均曝險，以及某一時間點的遠期匯率。如各位所知，這是非現金影響，且會隨每日匯率變動，但這代表我們最新的估計。

2020 EPS growth rates excluding foreign currency will depend on both the definition and trajectory of a recovery. For simplicity sake, we are defining recovery as a point when base volumes are down low-to-mid single digit percent from 2019 levels. In other words, consistent with our February 2020 guidance, we believe that industrial production levels will experience recessionary conditions even when excluding direct COVID impact.

2020 年在排除外幣因素後的 EPS 成長率，將取決於對復甦的定義以及復甦的走勢。為求簡化，我們將「復甦」定義為基礎銷量相較 2019 年水準下降低至中個位數百分比的時點。換言之，與我們 2020 年 2 月的指引一致，我們認為即使排除 COVID 的直接影響，工業生產水準仍將出現衰退性的狀況。

Regarding the COVID effect, we are providing 2 different scenarios of 2020 recovery. To reiterate, we are not trying to project the timing of a COVID recovery, but rather are providing 2 different benchmarks of potential underlying earnings impact. Clearly, there are a myriad of paths this could take, but the idea is that investors have a baseline to work with and then utilize their own projections to understand sensitivities. Scenario 1 assumes base volumes recover by early Q3 and then stabilize for the remainder of the year at levels which are low-to-mid single digit percent below 2019. Under this scenario, we would anticipate full year EPS excluding currency to increase mid-to-high single digit percent from 2019.

就 COVID 的影響而言，我們提供兩種不同的 2020 年復甦情境。再次強調，我們並非試圖預測 COVID 復甦的時間點，而是提供兩個不同的基準，用以衡量潛在的基礎獲利影響。顯然，可能的路徑有很多種，但我們的想法是讓投資人有一個可依循的基準，並再運用各自的預測來理解敏感度。情境 1 假設基礎銷量在第 3 季初之前復甦，之後在全年剩餘期間穩定於較 2019 年低至中個位數百分比的水準。在此情境下，我們預期全年在排除匯率後的 EPS 將較 2019 年增加中至高個位數百分比。

Scenario 2 assumes base volumes don't recover until mid Q4. This essentially means Q2 lockdown effects would carry until the middle of Q4. Here versus 2019, EPS excluding FX would be flat to negative low single digit percent. Under all scenarios, we are assuming Q2 to be the worst quarter with the most significant impact from COVID. At this stage, we would approximate the sequential EPS decline from Q1 to Q2 could be anywhere from 10% to 15% depending on the severity of lockdowns and impact of foreign currency translation. This is our latest estimate based on April results and our current thinking on the remainder of the quarter.

情境 2 假設基礎銷量直到第 4 季中才復甦。這基本上意味著第 2 季的封鎖影響將延續到第 4 季中。在此情境下，相較 2019 年，排除外匯（FX）後的 EPS 將持平至小幅下降（低個位數百分比）。在所有情境下，我們都假設第 2 季將是最差的一季，受到 COVID 的影響最為顯著。在此階段，我們估計 EPS 從第 1 季到第 2 季的季比下滑可能約為 10% 至 15%，取決於封鎖的嚴重程度以及外幣換算的影響。這是我們根據 4 月結果以及對本季剩餘期間的目前看法所做的最新估計。

Finally, the CapEx outlook has been reduced by $400 million, as we see lower base CapEx spending from merger efficiencies and fewer requirements for small growth investments. These actions further support our confidence in growing free cash flow over 2019. In summary, Linde offers an incredibly defensive model with significant internal productivity opportunities, a track record of growing free cash flow, a high-quality balance sheet and more than 65% of sales underpinned by fixed fees or resilient end-markets. This defensive model is further enhanced with significant profitable growth opportunities from our industry-leading project backlog, unrivaled hydrogen portfolio and world-class technical and engineering capabilities. It's true that we're facing an unprecedented pandemic and subsequent economic retrenchment that could limit global growth for many months or years. However, we remain confident in our ability to provide products and services to make the world more productive and safer while continuing to drive the organization to higher levels of performance and efficiency. I'd now like to turn the call over to Q&A.

最後，資本支出（CapEx）展望已下調 4 億美元，因為我們看到併購綜效帶來較低的基礎資本支出，以及對小型成長投資的需求減少。這些行動進一步支持我們對自由現金流較 2019 年成長的信心。總結而言，林德提供極具防禦性的模式，具備顯著的內部生產力提升機會、自由現金流成長的往績、高品質的資產負債表，以及超過 65% 的銷售由固定費用或具韌性的終端市場所支撐。此防禦性模式亦因我們業界領先的專案訂單積壓、無可匹敵的氫能產品組合，以及世界級的技術與工程能力，而進一步強化並帶來顯著的獲利性成長機會。確實，我們正面臨前所未有的疫情以及隨後的經濟緊縮，可能在未來數月或數年限制全球成長。然而，我們仍有信心能提供產品與服務，使世界更具生產力且更安全，同時持續推動組織達到更高水準的績效與效率。接下來我想把電話交給問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

(接線員指示) 你們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 David Begleiter。

Guys, just on decremental margins, how should we think about those in Q2 by segment, by region?

各位，關於遞減毛利率（decremental margins），我們應該如何按事業部、按地區來看第 2 季的情況？

Well, I think if you look at it from a -- just looking at it from a volume standpoint, from Q1 to Q2, we see volumes dropping, say, low double digits. And that is what is the basis behind Matt's forecast that we should be off somewhere between 10% and 15% in Q2. So on an operating margin basis, I'm sure there will be some deterioration in Q2 because the volumes are just falling so fast and our ability to get cost out that quickly is not going to be there. Though for the year, I firmly believe we're going to grow operating margins because we'll be able to take out enough fixed cost to make sure that, that happens.

嗯，我想如果你從——就純粹從銷量角度來看，從第 1 季到第 2 季，我們看到銷量下滑，例如低雙位數百分比。而這正是 Matt 預測第 2 季可能下滑約 10% 到 15% 的基礎。因此在營業利益率的層面，我確定第 2 季會有一些惡化，因為銷量下滑得太快，而我們不可能那麼快把成本降下來。不過就全年而言，我堅信我們將提升營業利益率，因為我們將能夠削減足夠的固定成本，確保這件事發生。

Yes. And I'll just add, David, to Steve's exact point. As you could imagine, with the local markets, we have a lot of costs and flexibility. So as we adjust those markets to the realities, the second quarter may not reflect the full cost benefit, but you may see some volume reduction, but then we'll get the benefit of adjusting those markets for the remainder of the year in terms of the cost structure.

是的。我再補充一下，David，呼應 Steve 的觀點。如你所想像，在各地市場，我們有很多成本與彈性可以調整。因此當我們依據現實情況調整這些市場時，第 2 季可能無法反映全部的成本效益；你可能會看到一些銷量下降，但在全年剩餘期間，就成本結構而言，我們會受益於對這些市場的調整。

And Matt, just on those FX impacts impacting equity income, earnings and interest expense in Q1, will they continue into Q2 as well?

Matt，再問一下，關於第 1 季外匯（FX）影響到權益法收益、獲利以及利息費用的部分，第 2 季也會延續嗎？

So yes to separate that, the unhedged intercompany loan, generally, I would not anticipate that. What that is, it's based on a balance sheet date. So that's the end of the -- in this case, the end of the month of March. Those currencies have actually already started to appreciate vis-à-vis the dollar. So if anything, if those trends continue, it might even be a little favorable in Q2. We'll have to see. But this is, again, a noncash thing. It actually is just how we finance our various companies and where the functional currency is different than currency we use to finance them. So yes, I would not expect anything to that magnitude going forward, and it probably may even be a little bit positive depending upon where currencies go.

所以，是的，我把它拆開來說：未避險的關係企業間貸款，一般而言，我不預期會再出現那樣的情況。那是以資產負債表日為基準計算的。因此那是——在這個案例中，是 3 月底。那些貨幣其實已經開始相對美元升值。所以如果有什麼影響的話，若這些趨勢持續，第 2 季甚至可能略為有利。我們還得再觀察。但這再次強調，是非現金項目。它其實只是反映我們如何為各子公司融資，以及其功能性貨幣與我們用來融資的貨幣不同所造成的結果。所以，是的，我不預期未來還會有那樣的幅度；而且視匯率走勢而定，甚至可能會略為正面。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Clark with SocGen.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行（SocGen）的 Peter Clark。

I've got 2. The first question now (technical difficulty) intrigued to see electronics, you have that down as resilient. I think the (technical difficulty) obviously some started up first phase. I think something in China as well, GTA. Wondering how much carrier gases is as percentage of your electronics business?

我有兩個問題。第一個問題是（技術問題）我注意到你們把電子業務列為具韌性，這點很有意思。我想（技術問題）顯然有些已經啟動第一階段。我想在中國也有一些，GTA。想請問載氣（carrier gases）占你們電子業務的比例大概是多少？

Peter?

Peter？

Yes? Can you hear me?

是？你聽得到我嗎？

Peter, sorry. We can't hear you. You are cutting off.

Peter，不好意思。我們聽不到你。你的聲音斷斷續續。

Okay. I'm saying on electronics, what percentage would be carrier gases with Samsung starting up and also GTA now? Because I see how it's all resilient. That's the first question. And the second question alluding on the productivity you see for the full year, obviously that was the biggest part of the Christmas tree diagram in presentation in February. I think it was 6% plus of EPS to report. I presume you -- we had at a pretty big number, even if you can't do some of the reductions you have planned for 2020? Those are the 2 questions.

好的。我是在問電子業務方面，隨著三星啟動以及現在的 GTA，載氣（carrier gases）大概占比多少？因為我看到你們說它整體都很具韌性。這是第一個問題。第二個問題是關於你們看到的全年生產力提升；顯然那是 2 月簡報中「聖誕樹」圖表裡最大的一塊。我記得那對 EPS 的貢獻是 6% 以上。我推測你們——即使你們無法完成 2020 年計畫中的某些削減措施，這仍然會是一個相當大的數字？以上是兩個問題。

Yes. Well, electronics is shown as 9% of our sales based on 2019. That's going to grow as a percent of our total sales. As we start-up our backlog, the electronics backlog starting up the year, this is on-site, was nearly $1 billion, right, at $900 million. So as we start that up, we're going to get the benefit of those sales. So a large piece of the electronics is on-site and large piece of the growth will come from on-site, again, as we start-up these projects. As we look at -- and I always look at total cash fixed cost. And so what does that mean? That's all fixed cost, minus depreciation. So all the controllable cash cost. And we've gone through multiple planning scenarios. But where I'm confident we're going to end up for the year is that our total cash fixed cost in 2020 will be lower than 2019 by something in the order of high single digits, so minus high single-digit year-over-year comparison. That's higher than what we had planned coming into the year. But given, obviously, what's taking place where the economies have basically shut down in U.S. and Europe for a big part of -- or a piece of March and most of April and kind of unsure how we're going to emerge from this, we thought it was prudent to take those actions. And again, if you go back and listen to Matt's forecast, he's saying that recovery to us. Again, we're talking 2020. So we're acting as if nothing happens going beyond 2020, which obviously, there will be. But by the end of 2020, we're saying that the recovery is still below pre COVID levels. That's just an assumption, and it's low single digits to mid-single-digit lower recovery point. Obviously, if the recovery is stronger, we're going to participate in that, and we're going to capitalize on that.

是的。嗯，按2019年的數據，電子相關業務占我們銷售額的9%。這個占比將會在我們總銷售額中提高。隨著我們啟動積壓訂單，年初的電子業務積壓訂單（這部分是現場/on-site）接近10億美元，對，大約是9億美元。因此當我們開始啟動這些訂單時，我們將受益於這些銷售。所以電子業務中很大一部分是在現場/on-site，而增長的很大一部分也將來自現場/on-site，同樣地，隨著我們啟動這些專案。再來我們看——而我一直看的是總現金固定成本。那這代表什麼？就是所有固定成本，扣除折舊。也就是所有可控的現金成本。我們已經做過多種規劃情境。但我有信心我們今年最終會達到的是：2020年的總現金固定成本將低於2019年，大約是高個位數的幅度，也就是年對年下降高個位數。這比我們年初的計畫更高（降幅更大）。但考量到顯然正在發生的情況——美國與歐洲的經濟在3月有很大一部分時間、以及4月大部分時間基本上都停擺，而且我們也不確定將如何走出這一切——我們認為採取這些行動是審慎之舉。另外，如果你回去聽Matt的預測，他說的是對我們而言的復甦。再次強調，我們談的是2020年。所以我們的作法是假設2020年之後不會發生任何事，當然實際上會發生。但到2020年底，我們的假設是復甦仍低於COVID之前的水準。這只是一個假設，復甦點大約是低個位數到中個位數的下滑。顯然，如果復甦更強，我們會參與其中，也會把握並利用那個機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的Bob Koort。

Could you guys talk -- I think you noted in your comments maybe some opportunity for decaps. Are you seeing greater interest in your customers or potential customers doing that in light of pressured economic conditions or maybe crack spreads or something else? Or has there not been much change and companies really haven't had a chance to go out there and solicit or consider interest in doing that?

你們能否談談——我想你們在評論中提到，可能有一些去自備化（decaps）的機會。在經濟環境承壓、或裂解價差（crack spreads）之類因素的影響下，你們是否看到客戶或潛在客戶對此有更高的興趣？還是其實變化不大，公司也還沒有太多機會去接觸市場、徵詢或考慮做這件事的意願？

It's a good question, Bob. That was something we commented on. The answer is yes. We are seeing more interest. I think more will come as they think through their financial condition. We're working on something as we speak. But I do expect that one of the opportunities that's going to emerge from this is the opportunity to do some of these decaps. Now obviously, we have to be careful, we have to be selective, we have to make sure that these are world-class assets that we're going to be supplying operated by blue-chip companies. But I certainly expect to see more opportunities than we had in prior years.

這是個好問題，Bob。這確實是我們提到過的事情。答案是肯定的。我們確實看到更多的興趣。我認為當他們更深入思考自身的財務狀況時，還會有更多出現。我們現在就正在推進一個案子。但我確實預期，這次事件將帶來的機會之一，就是做一些這類去自備化（decaps）。當然，我們必須謹慎、必須有選擇性，並確保這些是世界級資產，而且我們將供應給由藍籌公司營運的資產。但我確實預期，未來看到的機會會比過去幾年更多。

And one other thing I note, Steve, across sort of the large-cap more defensive chemical names we look at, at least, you guys have probably had the most resilient earnings stream even in light of your scenario analysis, but maybe haven't been reported as much from an equity standpoint. I'm curious on 2 things. One, you guys have daily sales runs across your network. Years ago, you used to provide us monthly updates. Is there any scope that maybe you could give us some interim quarter updates on whether scenario 1 or 2 might be occurring or your expectations for it? And then two, I'm wondering, is there any chance as that progresses, you could become more ambitious on getting back into the share repurchase activity?

另外我還注意到，Steve，在我們所關注的一些大型股、偏防禦型的化工公司中，至少就你們而言，即便在你們的情境分析下，你們的獲利流看起來可能是最具韌性的，但從股權市場的角度，似乎報導得沒那麼多。我對兩件事很好奇。第一，你們在整個網路上都有每日的銷售運行數據。多年前你們曾經提供我們每月更新。是否有可能提供一些季度中的中期更新，讓我們了解情境1或情境2是否正在發生，或你們對此的預期？第二，我想問的是，隨著情況推進，你們是否有可能在恢復股票回購活動方面變得更積極一些？

All right. So let's -- so I'll take one. Yes, I do think we could probably think about some kind of interim outlook based on -- you are correct in your assumption that we look at these volumes very closely. I look at them. I try not to look at them daily, that's almost too much, but I certainly look at them on a weekly basis around the world. So yes, we do have an indication of where we're tracking. I think we can come up with something. As far as the share buybacks, I think at this point, given the opportunity slate we just talked about with these decaptivations, and some of them can be quite large. We want to make sure that we have capacity available to take advantage of that. If you go back, what we've said countless times is that the priority for our business is to invest in the base business. And we want to invest in core plants, core businesses, whether it's new projects or decaps. That's what provides the highest return on capital for our company, and that's always been our priority.

好的。那我們——我先回答第一個。是的，我確實認為我們可能可以考慮提供某種中期展望，因為——你的假設是對的，我們非常密切地關注這些量。我自己也會看。我盡量不每天看，因為那幾乎太頻繁了，但我確實會以每週的頻率在全球範圍內查看。所以是的，我們確實能掌握目前的追蹤情況。我想我們可以整理出一些內容。至於股票回購，我認為在目前這個時間點，考量到我們剛剛談到的這些去自備化（decaptivations）機會清單，而且其中一些規模可能相當大，我們希望確保我們有足夠的能力（capacity）可以把握這些機會。如果回顧一下，我們已經無數次說過，我們業務的優先順序是投資於基礎業務。我們希望投資於核心工廠、核心業務，不論是新專案或去自備化（decaps）。這些能為公司帶來最高的資本報酬率，而這一直都是我們的優先事項。

Bob, this is Matt. Maybe I could add a little to kind of your question on the outlook. Now obviously, we have April under our belt here. I'd say April came in better than what we initially anticipated. But if you look at our 10% to 15% outlook, I mean, the worst-case side of 15% would probably have to imply April repeats for the remainder of the quarter. Obviously, if there's an improvement from April, you could be at the 10% or better layer. But at this point, we'll have to see where that goes. But I think that's how we think about the sequential look, and it's very fluid. It's something that we have to keep monitoring. But that's how we think about looking forward.

Bob，我是Matt。也許我可以就你關於展望的問題補充一點。很明顯，我們現在已經掌握了4月的情況。我會說，4月的表現比我們最初預期的要好。但如果你看我們10%到15%的展望，我的意思是，15%那一端的最差情境，可能必須意味著4月的狀況在本季度剩餘時間重複發生。顯然，如果相較4月有所改善，你可能會落在10%或更好的區間。但在這個時間點，我們還得看後續如何發展。不過我想這就是我們看待環比走勢的方式，而且變化非常快。這是我們必須持續監控的事情。但這就是我們對未來的思考方式。

Your next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自BMO資本市場（BMO Capital Markets）的John McNulty。

When we look at the project CapEx that you laid out, is there a way to think about what portion of that's tied to the smaller projects, the ones that are sub $5 million? And how should we think about the returns on those, whether they're kind of in-line with the general return profile of the larger ones or are they above or they below? How should we think about that?

當我們看你們提出的專案資本支出（CapEx）時，有沒有辦法理解其中有多少比例是與較小的專案相關，也就是單一專案低於500萬美元的那些？另外，我們應該如何看待這些小專案的報酬率：它們是與較大型專案的一般報酬輪廓一致，還是更高或更低？我們應該怎麼思考這件事？

Well, I think to Matt's point, most of the degradation and reduction of $400 million or so is in the base side. With respect to large projects, obviously, those returns are locked in. It's a question of, do we slide a couple of months from anticipated start up? The base has everything in it. So it has maintenance. It has safety. It has small projects, everything. But large project falls into the base category. I don't anticipate -- I have approved a couple of projects here recently. So it's not like the world came to a total end. And so there are pockets of opportunities, small on-sites that we continue to see that are very good projects. Nothing has changed in the return profile. So there's still good returns. But it stands the reason that we're going to see less of those in this economy.

嗯，我想呼應 Matt 的觀點，大約 4 億美元左右的大部分惡化與削減都在基礎端。至於大型專案，顯然那些報酬是已經鎖定的。問題在於，我們是否會把原先預期的啟動時間往後推遲幾個月？基礎端包含所有項目。所以它包含維護。包含安全。包含小型專案，所有的一切。但大型專案也歸在基礎類別裡。我不預期——我最近才剛核准了幾個專案。所以並不是說世界就完全結束了。因此我們仍持續看到一些機會口袋，例如小型現場供氣（on-site），而且是非常好的專案。報酬特性沒有任何改變。所以仍然有不錯的報酬。但合乎邏輯的是，在這樣的經濟環境下，我們會看到這類機會變少。

And John, just to add to that. As you know, a material portion of the base CapEx was related to growth. And within the growth, I'd put it almost the 2 basic buckets. There's exactly what you're referring to, these small standard plants under $5 million. To Steve's point, we're still seeing opportunities. We're still seeing growth. So that's an area that -- it will be slower, but it's happening. But also the other part of that growth would be tanks, cylinders, trailers, a lot of the transportation and storage equipment that relates to growing either liquids or cylinders. That's an area we would anticipate in this environment to be less, because we will be able to have a current large asset base that we can already utilize. So I would anticipate even more decline in what I'd call transportation and storage components of growth than probably some of these small on-sites.

John，再補充一下。如你所知，基礎資本支出（base CapEx）中有相當大一部分與成長相關。而在成長之中，我大致會分成兩個基本桶。第一個正是你提到的：這些 500 萬美元以下的小型標準化工廠。如 Steve 所說，我們仍然看到機會。我們仍然看到成長。所以那一塊——會變慢，但仍在發生。但成長的另一部分會是槽罐、鋼瓶、拖車，以及大量與液體或鋼瓶業務成長相關的運輸與儲存設備。在這樣的環境下，我們預期那一塊會更少，因為我們已經有一個可利用的龐大既有資產基礎。所以我預期，我所稱的成長中的運輸與儲存組件的下滑幅度，可能會比某些小型現場供氣（on-site）還要更大。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just as a follow-up. So you commented in the beginning remarks around Lincare and the opportunities there and the support that you're giving. And one point that you made was that the government truly appreciates this. I guess, can you flush that out a little bit? I know this has been kind of a business that maybe there were question marks in terms of whether it's fit in the portfolio or not. I guess, how might that be evolving at this point?

了解。這很有幫助。那再追問一下。你在開場談到 Lincare 以及那裡的機會與你們提供的支援。你提到的一點是政府真的很感謝這件事。我想，你能不能再多說明一下？我知道這個業務過去可能有人質疑它是否適合放在投資組合裡。我想問的是，在目前這個時間點，這種看法可能會如何演變？

So this is a business -- Lincare is a business that reports directly to me, and it has since the beginning of the merger. And coming into the merger, I was looking at it very carefully, and I felt that the trend line coming out of '18 was starting to turn up a bit. And in '19, the results that were delivered were better than '18. And coming into this year, as we were building up the plan, we felt '20 would be better than '19. And as I sit here today, given all that's going on with respect to COVID, I'm very confident that we're going to have a solid year in Lincare. And what I really mean about the appreciation side, if you -- we've all been listening to the news, trying to flatten the curve with the health care system so it's not overwhelmed. Part of that is they need ventilators, they need IC beds. And what we do from a home care standpoint -- it's a respiratory home care business. So we can provide a lot of these products, a lot of these services, and we're there to take the patients coming out of the hospital to relieve the hospital of that pressure on capacity and treat those patients in a home environment.

所以這是一個業務——Lincare 這個業務直接向我彙報，從併購一開始就是如此。在併購之初，我非常仔細地檢視它，我覺得從 2018 年走出來的趨勢線開始有些上揚。而在 2019 年，交出的結果比 2018 年更好。進入今年，在我們建立計畫時，我們認為 2020 年會比 2019 年更好。以我今天坐在這裡、考量 COVID 相關的一切情況，我非常有信心 Lincare 今年會有一個穩健的年度表現。至於我所說的「感謝」那一面，如果你——我們都一直在聽新聞，試著讓醫療體系「拉平曲線」，避免被壓垮。其中一部分是他們需要呼吸器，需要加護病房（IC）病床。而我們從居家照護的角度所做的——這是一個呼吸照護的居家照護業務。所以我們可以提供很多這些產品、很多這些服務；我們也能接手從醫院出院的病患，減輕醫院在容量上的壓力，並在居家環境中治療這些病患。

So that's something that the government, the Center for Medicaid -- Medicare & Medicaid Services recognized early on to their credit, and they have been working with us to facilitate the transition of patients to make sure that the documentation and paperwork is not getting in the way, to relieve the requirements for face-to-face transactions, which has been something that they've required historically because they know that doesn't make sense in this kind of environment. So our ability to really step up and provide a needed service in a critical time for our country is there. And Lincare has been able to step up and do that. It would be hard for a lot of smaller home care companies do that because they just don't have the capacity. They don't have the ability to flex. They don't have the resources. They don't have the complete repertoire of equipment and clinicians and technicians and all that. But that is what Lincare brings to the equation and at an important time. So clearly, they have demonstrated their value and are demonstrating their value to me and to the company this year. And I think going forward, that's likely to be the case. Again, COVID-19 is a respiratory illness, and that is our specialty, respiratory care. So I'm certainly feeling much more positive about this business. And I think I said that in the beginning that I wanted to spend some time to look at it, to understand it, see if we can improve it, what the outlook is. And it's pretty positive today.

因此，這是政府方面——醫療保險與醫療補助服務中心（Medicare & Medicaid Services）很早就認可的一點，這要歸功於他們；而且他們一直與我們合作，協助病患轉銜，確保文件與行政流程不會成為阻礙，並放寬對面對面交易的要求——這是他們過去基於歷史原因所要求的，因為他們知道在這種環境下那樣做不合理。所以，我們確實能在國家關鍵時刻挺身而出、提供所需服務。而 Lincare 也已經能夠挺身而出做到這一點。對許多較小的居家照護公司而言，要做到這點會很困難，因為他們就是沒有那樣的產能。他們沒有彈性調度的能力。他們沒有資源。他們沒有完整的設備、臨床人員與技術人員等全套配置。但這正是 Lincare 在這個方程式中、在重要時刻所帶來的價值。所以很明顯，他們今年已經向我、也向公司展現了他們的價值，並且正在持續展現。我認為未來也很可能會是如此。再說一次，COVID-19 是一種呼吸道疾病，而這正是我們的專長——呼吸照護。所以我對這個業務的看法確實更為正面。而我想我在開場也提到，我希望花一些時間去看它、理解它、看看我們能否改善它，以及它的前景如何。而今天看起來相當正面。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Vincent Andrews。

Steve, maybe we could just talk a little bit more about the decaps. And I guess maybe the angle I'm thinking about is just -- I assume just like large projects, there's going to be competition for decap. So maybe just talk about where you think your edge is. I assume some of it has to do with density, some of it has to do with engineering. But how do you think the winner of these decaps is going to be decided? And from your own perspective, how do you think about hurdle rates, risk profiles versus a similar dollar amount for a large project that might be out there?

Steve，也許我們可以再多談一點關於 decap（去資本化／資產去資本化）的部分。我想我思考的角度是——我假設就像大型專案一樣，decap 也會有競爭。所以也許談談你認為你們的優勢在哪裡。我猜一部分與密度有關，一部分與工程能力有關。但你認為這些 decap 的贏家會如何被決定？從你們自身的角度，你如何看待門檻報酬率（hurdle rates）、風險特性，相較於市場上可能存在、同等金額的一個大型專案？

Well, I'm not going to think about hurdle rates any different, and I'm not going to think about risk any difficult going into this. I think there will be cases where there is competition. There will be cases where we will be a supplier in a complex and we would be the natural partner to decap an existing asset, and it will just be a negotiation between 2 parties. And I think the same is going to be true for our competitors. Clearly -- so where that's the case, that's where the opportunities will come. Clearly, Linde Engineering has built a lot of plants all over the world, both ASUs and HyCO plants. And we have that list, and so we know exactly where they are. And we'll go through that screen to determine which ones we're interested in and which ones we're not.

嗯，我不會用不同的方式去看門檻報酬率，我也不會用不同的方式去看進入這件事的風險。我認為有些情況會存在競爭。也會有些情況是我們在某個園區（complex）裡已經是供應商，我們自然會是對既有資產進行 decap 的合作夥伴，那就只是兩方之間的協商。我認為對我們的競爭對手也會是同樣的情況。很明顯——所以在屬於那種情況時，機會就會出現。很明顯，Linde Engineering 在全球各地建了很多工廠，包括空分裝置（ASU）與 HyCO（氫氣與一氧化碳）工廠。我們有那份清單，因此我們確切知道它們在哪裡。我們會用那個篩選流程來判斷哪些是我們有興趣的、哪些不是。

And maybe just as a follow-up on your leverage level. I know we've been having this conversation in prior quarters, but obviously, the world is a bit different now. So has anything changed about your willingness to lever up the company? And does it matter whether it's a decap to cash flow right away versus large projects with buybacks?

另外，或許作為對你們槓桿水準的追問。我知道我們在前幾個季度一直在討論這件事，但顯然，現在的世界有點不一樣了。所以你們對於提高公司槓桿的意願，有沒有任何改變？以及，這是否取決於是立即對現金流有貢獻的 decap（去瓶頸/擴產）項目，還是搭配回購的大型專案？

Vince, it's Matt. Yes, I start with the standard basic part of our capital allocation policy, which we're going to maintain an A rating, right? We're absolutely committed to that. And the nice thing, I think, about the capital policy we've laid out is it's going to be the same throughout any environment, and this is no different. So as you may recall, our approach is maintain the A rating. We want to raise the dividend every year. And our priority always, always, always is good growth projects that meet our criteria. Whatever is left over goes to buybacks. And to the points we made in the prepared remarks and Steve's points, we are seeing a different landscape of growth opportunities now in light of this environment. We want to understand that and assess that. Hence, we've paused the buyback program. Now that the potential growth opportunities are changed, and some, especially things like decaps, will have more different cash profiles than you would on normal projects, we just want to assess it and understand it. So our capital allocation policy has not changed at all. Our view on the desired credit rating and appropriate debt levels has not changed at all. But this environment has created opportunities where -- that did not exist prior, and we want to make sure we assess that and understand that.

Vince，我是 Matt。是的，我先從我們資本配置政策中最基本、標準的部分談起，也就是我們會維持 A 級評等，對吧？我們對此絕對承諾。而我認為我們所提出的資本政策有個好處，就是在任何環境下都會一致執行，而現在也不例外。所以如你所記得的，我們的做法是：維持 A 級評等。我們希望每年都提高股利。而我們的優先順序永遠、永遠、永遠是符合我們標準的優質成長專案。剩餘的資金才用於回購。並且呼應我們在事先準備的發言以及 Steve 的觀點，在這樣的環境下，我們確實看到成長機會的版圖已經不同了。我們希望理解並評估這些變化。因此，我們已暫停回購計畫。現在潛在的成長機會已改變，且有些（尤其像 decap 這類）其現金流輪廓會比一般專案更不一樣，我們只是想評估並理解它。所以我們的資本配置政策完全沒有改變。我們對於目標信用評等與適當負債水準的看法也完全沒有改變。但這個環境創造了先前不存在的機會，我們要確保把它評估清楚並充分理解。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Mike Sison。

In terms of Q1, just sort of curiosity, the adjusted EBIT was up 11% and -- no, I'm sorry. Yes, adjusted EBIT was up, operating income was up 11%, yet EBITDA was only up 4%. Can you sort of walk through the difference there and how that will flush through for the remainder of the year?

就第一季而言，純粹好奇，調整後 EBIT 成長了 11%——不，抱歉。是的，調整後 EBIT 上升、營業利益也成長 11%，但 EBITDA 只成長 4%。你能否說明一下兩者差異的原因，以及這個差異在今年剩餘期間會如何反映？

Yes. Mike, this is Matt. I'd be glad to answer that. You may recall in the second quarter of 2019, when we had this call, I had discussed the sequential Q1 to Q2 EBITDA walk and we had had a presentation -- a format change. As you may recall, we didn't officially merge till March 1, 2019. So there was a presentation format change that was prospective going forward the same, but on the year-over-year this effect is happening. So simple answer is, there's probably around 4% or so of other reclasses. It was just a line swap between fixed cost and EBIT or D&A. So it's a 0 net effect operating income, but it's a line swap between fixed cost and D&A. So that's probably another 4% or so. In addition, I discussed the equity income impact we had on the noncash unhedged loans. As you know, EBITDA, the calculation has equity income in it. So that's probably another percent or so; again, noncash, but just an impact. So you're probably really -- on that basis, EBITDA would maybe be 9% or so. And the only difference then between the 11% is depreciation is a little lower. But I would just say, most people use EBITDA as a proxy for cash. And I think it's better just to look at cash. And operating cash flow was up 26%. So from my perspective, I'm less concerned about some of these pocket switches and EBITDA effects, and I'm much more interested in what's the operating cash flow trend. But going forward, you won't have this effect anymore. As I mentioned, that was a onetime thing in Q1 upon the merger adoption. So I'm not -- no concerns going forward.

好的。Mike，我是 Matt。我很樂意回答。你可能記得在 2019 年第二季我們開這通電話會議時，我曾談到第一季到第二季 EBITDA 的逐步變動（walk），而且我們當時做過簡報——也就是呈現格式的變更。如你所記得的，我們直到 2019 年 3 月 1 日才正式合併。因此，呈現格式的變更在往後是前瞻一致的，但在年對年的比較上就會出現這個影響。所以簡單的答案是，大概有約 4% 左右屬於其他重分類。只是把固定成本與 EBIT 或 D&A（折舊與攤銷）之間的某一行做了對調。因此對營業利益是淨影響為 0，但在固定成本與 D&A 之間做了行項互換。所以那大概又是 4% 左右。另外，我也提過我們在未避險的非現金貸款上，權益法收益（equity income）帶來的影響。如你所知，EBITDA 的計算包含權益法收益。所以那大概又是 1% 左右；同樣是非現金，但會造成影響。因此你實際上——在那個基礎上，EBITDA 可能會是約 9% 左右。而與 11% 的差異，唯一剩下的就是折舊稍微低一些。但我想說的是，多數人把 EBITDA 當作現金的替代指標。我認為更好的方式是直接看現金。而營運現金流成長了 26%。所以就我而言，我比較不擔心這些科目間的挪移與 EBITDA 的影響，我更關注的是營運現金流的趨勢。但往後你就不會再看到這個影響了。如我提到的，這是在合併採用後、第一季的一次性因素。所以往後我——沒有任何疑慮。

Great. And as a quick follow-up, last quarter you had a nice EPS waterfall chart. When you think about the positives, the savings, like 6% or so, then pricing was a couple percent. Stock buyback was couple percent. Maybe that's a little bit lower and then project backlog was couple percent. Are those positives still, sort of intact? And I guess that implies something like mid-single-digit declines in your base case for demand and then maybe 10, 11, 12 who knows in the bear case. Is that kind of the way to think about it?

很好。再快速追問一下，上季你們有一張很不錯的 EPS 瀑布圖。當你看那些正面因素，節省成本大概 6% 左右，然後定價是 2% 左右。庫藏股回購是 2% 左右。也許那會低一點，然後專案積壓（backlog）是 2% 左右。這些正面因素是否仍大致維持不變？我想這也意味著，在你們的基本情境下需求可能是中個位數下滑，而在悲觀情境下可能是 10、11、12——誰知道。大概可以這樣理解嗎？

Well, I think approaching the elements is the right way to do it. And the project backlog, we've said it looks like 2% top line, bottom line growth, this year, next year, the following year. And I think that's close enough. Pricing, I think if you go back and look at the last -- the Christmas tree chart we all call it now, but it looked to be around 2%. I see nothing that's going to change in my view of that. And if you go back and look at us historically too, even when volumes plummeted, we're always able to get positive pricing. So I don't see that changing. The cost side will be higher. We'll get more cost out this year because that's the environment that we're in, and that's what we need to do. The big difference -- so the 2 big differences are FX, which Matt talked about. And then if you take FX away, then it's volume. And so everything hinges on volume. And so we laid out 2 scenarios for you. You can come up with your own scenarios. Whatever we laid out probably won't be correct because if you go back and look at what we understand about this disease, I think, clearly today, it's different than what we thought about it 30 days ago. So this thing will continue to evolve. And again, if the volumes come back faster, if we're rocketing into next year, we'll do exceptionally well.

嗯，我認為用拆解各個要素的方式來看是對的。至於專案積壓，我們說過它看起來會帶來約 2% 的營收與獲利成長，今年、明年、後年都是如此。我想這個估計已經夠接近了。定價方面，我想如果你回頭看上一張——我們現在都叫它「聖誕樹圖」——看起來大約是 2%。就我看來，沒有任何事情會改變我對此的判斷。而且如果你也回頭看我們的歷史，即使出貨量大幅下滑，我們仍然總是能做到正向的定價。所以我不認為這會改變。成本端會更高。我們今年會再多降一些成本，因為這就是我們所處的環境，也是我們必須做的事。最大的差異——所以兩個最大的差異是外匯（FX），Matt 已談過。然後如果把外匯拿掉，剩下就是量（volume）。所以一切都取決於量。因此我們為你們列出了兩種情境。你們也可以提出自己的情境。我們提出的任何情境可能都不會完全正確，因為如果你回頭看我們對這個疾病的理解，我想很明顯，今天的認知已不同於 30 天前。所以事情會持續演變。再者，如果量回來得更快，如果我們明年快速反彈，我們的表現會非常好。

Yes. And the only thing I'd add to Steve's point, a lot of people throw the word recovery around. And I just ask that -- ask them what recovery means? Because recovery means something different to everybody. No one knows what it will be, but we did our best effort to define it. We define it as actually some recessionary conditions. So I think that's an important thing too, is what even is a recovery and then when do we expect it?

是的。我唯一想補充 Steve 的觀點是，很多人會把「復甦」這個詞掛在嘴邊。而我只想問——問他們復甦到底是什麼意思？因為復甦對每個人而言代表的意義都不同。沒有人知道它會是什麼樣子，但我們已盡最大努力去定義它。我們把它定義為實際上仍存在某些衰退性的狀況。所以我認為另一個重要點是：復甦究竟是什麼，以及我們預期何時會出現？

Your next question comes from the line of Nicola Tang with Exane BNP.

您的下一個問題來自 Exane BNP 的 Nicola Tang。

Actually, it ties on quite nicely to that point you just made on recovery. I think in your opening remarks, you mentioned that actually you had seen a decent recovery in China. So I was just wondering if you could talk about how China today is tracking versus more normal conditions? And then just on the engineering business. In the slides, you mentioned that the sales decline was driven by project timing. I was wondering, to what extent that was due to disruptions related to coronavirus not being able to get on-site versus like longer-term project delays?

其實這和您剛才談到的復甦點相當契合。我想在您的開場致詞中，您提到其實您已經看到中國出現不錯的復甦。所以我想請您談談，今天中國的狀況相較於較正常的情況，目前追蹤得如何？另外再談工程業務。在投影片中，您提到銷售下滑是由專案時程所驅動。我想請問，這在多大程度上是因為與新冠疫情相關的干擾、無法到現場施工所致，相較於例如較長期的專案延宕？

Okay. So let me take -- I'll start with China. Looking at the volumes today, coming out of April, it looks like merchant liquids in the high 80s, probably tracking 90% now. Not back to 100% pre-COVID levels yet, but obviously, the trend is more positive. The issue in Asia now is that it's the same problem that we had in Q1 in China is now Q2 in places like India, Southeast Asia, to a lesser extent, Australia. The on site business, Tier 1 steel suppliers took a lot of oxygen throughout the downturn, throughout Lunar New Year, throughout COVID. I think the -- what we have to watch for now going forward in this year is that we're not building a lot of inventory, that it is going to get absorbed. But it's a good time to be partnering with Tier 1 suppliers in China. The chemical side of the house, it kind of ranges. I'm looking at numbers from 70% to 90% of pre-COVID levels. And some of that's going to depend quite frankly on how quickly China recovers economically and the export order book will drive the chemical side of the house. But clearly, it's come out of this COVID period as everyone has been reporting that you've listened to, and that continues.

好的。那我先從中國開始。從目前的量來看，走出四月後，散裝液體（merchant liquids）大約在高 80% 的水準，現在可能已經追蹤到 90% 左右。還沒有回到疫情前 100% 的水準，但顯然趨勢更為正向。目前亞洲的問題是，我們在第一季於中國遇到的同樣問題，現在在第二季出現在印度、東南亞，澳洲的程度相對較輕。現場供氣（on-site）業務方面，一級鋼鐵供應商在整個低迷期、農曆新年期間以及 COVID 期間都消耗了大量需求。我認為接下來今年我們需要留意的是，不要建立太多庫存，而是要能被市場吸收。但現在是與中國一級供應商合作的好時機。化工端的情況則有些差異。我看到的數字大約介於疫情前水準的 70% 到 90%。坦白說，其中一部分將取決於中國經濟復甦的速度，而出口訂單能見度將驅動化工端的表現。但很明顯地，它已經走出這段 COVID 期間，正如您聽到的各家公司所回報的一樣，而且這個趨勢仍在延續。

On Linde Engineering, obviously, there are some challenges executing projects. I would say nothing substantial at this point. The whole virtual management that they embarked on, just like we did here and many other companies have done, has worked pretty well. So in terms of project delays and things like that, I haven't really seen it yet. And everything seems to be tracking. It wouldn't surprise me if sales do slip a bit. But the order backlog is firm, and that's the most important thing at this point.

至於林德工程（Linde Engineering），顯然在專案執行上有一些挑戰。但我會說目前沒有任何重大的問題。他們所採行的全程虛擬管理，就像我們以及許多其他公司所做的一樣，運作得相當不錯。因此就專案延遲等情況而言，我目前其實還沒有真正看到。而且一切看起來都在按計畫推進。如果銷售稍微下滑一點，我也不會意外。但訂單積壓（order backlog）很穩固，而這是目前最重要的事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Duffy Fischer。

Steve, you had referenced kind of the recession of 2008, 2009 and how well the business did through that, both EPS and pricing. Looking back at that versus what we're seeing today, what are the pros and cons of using that as a template, as a guide as we go through? So for the merchant business, what might that mean? And then because you didn't have the engineering business back then, maybe walk us through what that business could look like in a recession in your mind?

Steve，您提到過 2008、2009 年的衰退，以及公司在那段期間的表現有多好，無論是 EPS 或定價。回頭看那段時間與我們今天看到的情況相比，把它當作範本、作為我們度過這段期間的指引，其優缺點是什麼？就散裝（merchant）業務而言，這可能意味著什麼？另外，因為當時您還沒有工程業務，能否也帶我們了解一下，在您看來工程業務在衰退中可能會呈現什麼樣貌？

Yes. I didn't have Linde Engineering business, but I also didn't -- I also -- I might have still had a small home care business in the U.S., but nothing on the order of Lincare. So you have some of those counter dynamics as well. Back then, volumes, I believe, in the U.S. dropped about 12%. I think worldwide, we were down about 10% for 2009 versus 2008. Again, pricing was positive. Very similar reactions. Pipeline volumes in the U.S. fell precipitously during the financial crisis. They went down pretty quick. We saw the same thing happen here with COVID. When you shut down your industrial base in the United States, you see pipeline volumes start to drop precipitously as well. Merchant liquid volumes fell a lot back in '09. They fell a lot looking at April here as well. So obviously, different crises, but the impact is very similar on volumes and where those volumes are affected. Again, I think Lincare is going to have a very good year, no doubt about that. As I look at Linde Engineering, the fortunate thing for Linde Engineering is we closed a very large order coming into this year. And their third-party backlog is $5.5 billion. That's 2 full years of sales they have sitting there in the backlog. And in addition to that, they are doing the engineering work for the other $4 billion or so of sale of gas. So they're in a much, much different position than perhaps they were historically, huge backlog, sale of gas plus third-party to absorb the engineering cost work. And I'm not worried about Linde Engineering this year for sure. And I think we'd have to get well into next year. And with an order outlook that says orders have really dried up before we would start to see some pressure on Linde Engineering, and then we'd have to go to working on some of the cost a little more aggressively. But today, they just have a big backlog they need to work off and execute, and that's going to sustain them for a while.

是的。當時我沒有林德工程業務，但我也沒有——我也——我可能在美國仍有一個小型的居家照護業務，但規模完全無法與 Lincare 相提並論。所以也存在一些相反方向的動態。當時我記得美國的量大約下滑了 12%。我想全球而言，2009 年相較 2008 年大約下滑了 10%。同樣地，定價仍是正向的。反應非常類似。在金融危機期間，美國的管線供氣（pipeline）量急劇下滑。下滑得非常快。我們在 COVID 期間也看到同樣的事情。當你關閉美國的工業基礎時，你也會看到管線供氣量同樣開始急劇下降。2009 年散裝液體量也大幅下滑。而我們看四月的情況也同樣大幅下滑。所以顯然危機不同，但對量的影響以及受影響的量的分布非常相似。同樣地，我認為 Lincare 今年會有非常好的一年，這點毫無疑問。至於林德工程，我看到的有利之處是，我們在今年初拿下了一筆非常大的訂單。而他們的第三方訂單積壓為 55 億美元。這相當於他們積壓中已有 2 個完整年度的銷售額。此外，他們也在為另外約 40 億美元的售氣（sale of gas）項目提供工程工作。因此他們所處的位置與過去可能截然不同：龐大的積壓、售氣加上第三方業務，可用來吸收工程成本工作。我確定今年我不擔心林德工程。我認為必須要進入到明年更後段，而且在訂單展望顯示訂單真的已經枯竭的情況下，我們才會開始看到林德工程承受一些壓力，然後我們才需要更積極地處理部分成本。但就目前而言，他們只是有很大的積壓需要消化並執行，這會在一段時間內支撐他們。

Great. And then just on your comments around decaps, the opportunity set SMRs versus ASU versus others. What does that look like in your mind over the next year or so?

了解。另外就您對去資本化（decaps）的評論，以及機會集合：SMR 相較於 ASU 或其他。在您看來，未來一年左右會是什麼樣子？

I think that's an interesting question. I think, obvious -- I would say that we'll see both -- maybe a little heavier on the ASU side, but I think we're definitely going to see both types of opportunities. Obviously, if we're talking about SMRs, it's going to be hydrogen or syngas or CO for refining either in the U.S. or around the world -- other parts of the world. And then ASU, I think, would be -- those opportunities are going to come up. I'll just stop there.

我覺得這是個有趣的問題。我想很明顯——我會說我們會同時看到兩者——可能 ASU 這邊會稍微多一些，但我認為我們肯定會看到兩種類型的機會。顯然，如果我們談的是 SMR，那會是用於煉油的氫氣、合成氣（syngas）或一氧化碳（CO），不論是在美國或全球——世界其他地區。至於 ASU，我認為——那些機會也會出現。我就先說到這裡。

Your next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

So one of the debates after the merger was the cultural integration and the resilience of the 2 cultures and how well they would work in a crisis. Now that we're in one, can you give some perspective on both positives and also maybe just specifically addressed, have you -- needed to replace staff in the senior levels in any regions or product lines as part of the -- over the last 6 months? But also, can you address sort of just what you've been pleasantly surprised by or what's worked, what hasn't?

所以在合併之後的一個辯論點是文化整合、兩種文化的韌性，以及它們在危機中能合作得多好。現在我們正處於一場危機中，您能否就正面因素提供一些觀點，並且也更具體地回應：在過去 6 個月中，您是否需要在任何地區或產品線的高階層級更換人員，作為——的一部分？另外，您也能否談談有哪些地方讓您感到驚喜、哪些運作良好、哪些不如預期？

Well, I think that's a good question. Obviously, we've been in the middle of this for a couple of months and even a year plus going back to the beginning of the merger. But I've been quite pleased, very satisfied with the response I've seen from everyone around the world, not to differentiate between legacy Linde or legacy Praxair or legacy BOC or legacy whatever because we have various groups in the new Linde plc. But -- because this isn't my first rodeo as soon as we started to see things unfolding the way they did, I basically went back and pulled the playbook out of 2009, took a good look at that, refreshed that, got that out to everybody. I think it's important that we all get grounded early in terms of what needs to be done, what pace it needs to be done. And I'm very pleased with the response that I have seen really from everybody around the world.

嗯，我認為這是個好問題。顯然，我們已經在這件事的進程中好幾個月了，甚至如果回到併購開始之初，已經超過一年。但我對我在全球各地看到的每個人的反應感到相當高興、非常滿意；我們不去區分是原來的林德（legacy Linde）、原來的普萊克斯艾爾（legacy Praxair）、原來的 BOC 或其他，因為在新的 Linde plc 裡我們有各種不同的團隊。不過——因為這不是我第一次遇到這種情況——當我們開始看到事情以那樣的方式發展時，我基本上就回去把 2009 年的作戰手冊拿出來，仔細看了一遍，更新整理後，發給所有人。我認為很重要的是，我們要在早期就把該做什麼、需要以什麼節奏去做這些事情先打好基礎、達成共識。而我對我所看到的回應感到非常滿意，確實是來自全球各地的每一位。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Steve Byrne。

A couple of months ago, Matt, you were talking about -- at the beginning of this pandemic as it was unfolding, you expected to learn how to be more productive, something to that extent. And I just wanted to see whether you were able to pull forward any of these productivity initiatives that we feel like, oh, maybe have been set at -- to relatively modest levels. Are you able to pull forward because of any disruption going on at the governments or workforce? Anything along those lines that we could expect greater cost synergies going forward?

幾個月前，Matt，你在談到——在這場疫情剛開始發展時——你預期會學到如何變得更有效率，大概是這個意思。我想了解的是，你是否能把其中一些生產力提升的計畫提前推進？我們覺得這些計畫可能原本設定在——相對保守的水準。你是否能因為政府或勞動力方面的任何干擾而把它們提前？有沒有類似的事情，讓我們可以預期未來會有更高的成本協同效益？

Yes. And maybe to learn more productive, I'd maybe just say there's probably more productivity opportunities. I agree with that, absolutely, and I think the prior conversation we had. And I think it's, to an extent what Steve had said in his earlier remarks, that we're a very, very local business. And obviously, we have a set of opportunity of some efficiencies that we were already undertaking with the merger. In conjunction with that, as the dynamics change in our local businesses, we need to adjust and adapt with our cost structure. On top of that, when you get in an environment like this, there's just a bit more of a burning platform. And I think that burning platform helps -- even to Laurence's question earlier, it actually brings the culture together faster, in my opinion. And we're seeing that. And so I think you find more opportunities, people become more creative and the local markets require maybe cost structures that might be a little different. So you add all that together, yes, absolutely, there's greater productivity now than what we originally anticipated in the beginning of the year. And we just need to act on it in all capacities. And it's across all fronts. And it's not just people, it's lots of different things. And so I think this is what we are actively working on. And we feel there's a lot more opportunity that we're going to continue to work towards, and we should be seeing the benefits in our results throughout the year and into future years.

是的。而且，關於學到更有效率這件事，我可能會說，應該是有更多的生產力機會。我完全同意，我想這也呼應我們之前的對話。我認為在某種程度上，就像 Steve 先前評論中提到的，我們是一個非常、非常在地化的業務。而且顯然，隨著併購，我們本來就已經在推動一系列效率提升的機會。同時，當我們各地在地業務的動態改變時，我們需要調整並使成本結構適應。此外，當你處在像這樣的環境時，確實會有更強的「燃眉之急」的壓力。我認為這種燃眉之急——甚至回到先前 Laurence 的問題——在我看來，反而能更快把文化凝聚在一起。我們也正在看到這一點。因此我認為你會找到更多機會，人們會更有創意，而各地市場可能需要略有不同的成本結構。把這些加總起來，是的，絕對如此，現在的生產力提升空間比我們年初原先預期的更大。而我們需要在各個面向採取行動。而且是全方位的。不只是人員，還有很多不同的事情。所以我認為這正是我們正在積極推進的工作。我們覺得還有更多機會會持續努力爭取，而且我們應該會在今年的業績以及未來幾年看到效益。

So I'm going to add one thing, then we'll take 1 more question, I think, Juan, right? So everybody is going to go through what are the implications of COVID, strategically speaking going forward? And what are the implications to your company, what are you going to do different? We've already alluded to a couple of things throughout this. Being a local business, not directly impacted by supply chain is good thing for our business. We've talked about the importance of health care, being in resilient end markets. We've talked about decarbonization opportunities, hydrogen. We're going to see that going forward. But another implication that I think relates to your question is digitalization and the ability to operate plants remotely, the ability to monitor plants remotely, the ability to diagnose what's taking place, preventative diagnostics, predictive maintenance. All of those capabilities are going to be even more important, not just for us but for other companies going forward. And that -- I've always viewed that as mainly a productivity opportunity for our company.

我再補充一點，然後我們再接 1 個問題，我想是 Juan，對嗎？所以每個人都會去思考，從策略角度來看，COVID 往後的影響是什麼？對你們公司有什麼影響，你們會做哪些不同的事？我們在整個討論中已經提到幾點。作為一個在地化的業務，不會直接受到供應鏈影響，對我們的業務是好事。我們談過醫療保健的重要性，身處具韌性的終端市場。我們談過去碳化的機會、氫能。我們將在未來看到這些趨勢。但我認為另一個與你問題相關的影響是數位化，以及遠端操作工廠的能力、遠端監控工廠的能力、診斷正在發生什麼的能力、預防性診斷、預測性維護。所有這些能力不僅對我們，對其他公司在未來也會變得更加重要。而且——我一直把這主要視為我們公司的生產力機會。

Your final question comes from the line of PJ Juvekar with Citigroup.

最後一個問題來自花旗集團（Citigroup）的 PJ Juvekar。

This is Kara Enomoto on for PJ. I was just hoping you could possibly compare and contrast what you saw in China in Q1 with maybe the cadence of declines and a recovery in the Americas, EMEA and other parts of Asia. And while I know you can't get too granular, I was wondering if you're starting to see any positive or stabilizing signs in any of those regions?

我是代 PJ 提問的 Kara Enomoto。我希望你們能比較一下你們在第一季於中國看到的情況，與美洲、EMEA 以及亞洲其他地區的下滑節奏與復甦步調可能有何異同。雖然我知道你們無法講得太細，但我想請問，你們是否開始在任何這些地區看到一些正向或趨於穩定的跡象？

Yes. I think China, obviously, hard stop and then reopening instant stimulus from the government. And clearly, they're coming out of this fairly quickly. I think for Europe, when I look at the merchant liquid volumes for Europe in April, just to give you that number, it's off 15%. But as I look at the industrial volumes, it looks to me like maybe the last week or 2 in April, we're starting to see a little improvement from that.

是的。我認為中國很明顯是先硬性停擺，然後重新開放，政府立即推出刺激措施。而且很清楚，他們相當快速地走出這一波。至於歐洲，如果我看 4 月歐洲的商用液體（merchant liquid）銷量，只給你這個數字，下降了 15%。但當我看工業用量（industrial volumes）時，我覺得 4 月最後 1 到 2 週，我們開始看到一些小幅改善。

If I were to look at the United States, merchant liquid volumes are off like 20% sitting here today. I haven't seen any change week-to-week in that number. And if you think about it, China went first coming out, followed by Europe maybe starting to emerge from that, and then the U.S. is still kind of behind and more at the bottom of the curve at this point. So we'll see.

如果我看美國，目前商用液體銷量大約下降 20%。我還沒有看到這個數字在逐週上有任何變化。而如果你這樣想，中國最先開始走出來，接著是歐洲可能開始逐步走出來，而美國目前仍然有點落後，在這個時間點更接近曲線的底部。所以我們再觀察。

Management, the floor is yours for any closing remarks.

管理層如有任何結語，現在把時間交給你們。

Yes. Just thank you again for everyone participating in today's call. Like always, if you have any further questions, feel free to reach out to me directly. Have a great day and stay safe.

好的。再次感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。一如往常，如果你有任何進一步的問題，歡迎直接與我聯繫。祝各位有美好的一天，並請注意安全。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以斷線。