林德集團 (LIN) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q4 and Full Year 2019 Linde Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Juan Pelaez, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

各位女士、先生，感謝您耐心等候，歡迎參加林德（Linde）2019年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。(接線員指示) 現在我想把會議交給今天的講者——投資人關係主管 Juan Pelaez 先生。謝謝。先生，請開始。

Thank you, Daniel. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for attending our 2019 fourth quarter earnings call and webcast. Once again, this is Juan Pelaez, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined this morning by Steve Angel, Chief Executive Officer; and Matt White, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，Daniel。各位下午好，感謝各位參加我們2019年第四季財報電話會議與網路直播。我再次自我介紹，我是投資人關係主管 Juan Pelaez。今天早上與我一同出席的還有執行長 Steve Angel，以及財務長 Matt White。

Today's presentation materials are available on our website at linde.com in the Investors section. Please read the forward-looking statement disclosure on Page 2 of the slides, and note that it applies to all statements made during this teleconference.

今天的簡報資料已公布於我們網站 linde.com 的「投資人」專區。請閱讀投影片第2頁的前瞻性陳述揭露，並注意該揭露適用於本次電話會議期間所作的所有陳述。

The reconciliation of the adjusted pro forma numbers are in the appendix to this presentation. Steve and Matt will now give us an update on Linde's performance, including 2019 highlights and our new 2028 sustainability targets.

調整後擬制（pro forma）數字的調節表收錄於本簡報的附錄中。接下來 Steve 與 Matt 將為我們更新林德的營運表現，包括2019年重點成果以及我們新的2028年永續發展目標。

We will then be available to answer questions. Let me turn the call over to Steve.

之後我們將開放問答。我先把電話交給 Steve。

So if you had told me a year ago that this is where we would be today as a new company, I would have been delighted. We had the plans in place, but we had a lot of work to do. And I'm pleased to say the team executed beautifully. A few financial highlights for the year. We saw underlying growth of 4%, half price and half volume. Operating margins climbed nicely, 160 basis points to 18.7% and earnings per share grew 23% ex FX.

如果你在一年前告訴我，作為一家新公司我們今天會達到這樣的成果，我會非常高興。我們當時已有計畫，但仍有大量工作要做。我很高興地說，團隊執行得非常出色。先分享幾項年度財務重點。我們看到4%的內生成長，一半來自價格、一半來自銷量。營業利益率穩健提升，上升160個基點至18.7%，每股盈餘在不含匯率影響下成長23%。

We had strong cash flow for the year, especially in the second half, which is always a good sign of a healthy and improving business. I'll let Matt expand more on that. And with that strong cash flow, we invested $4 billion back into the business in CapEx, half for contracted large projects and returned $8 billion to shareholders between dividends, share buybacks and the squeeze out of our minority shareholders.

我們全年現金流表現強勁，尤其是下半年——這通常是企業健康且持續改善的良好訊號。我會請 Matt 進一步說明。憑藉這股強勁現金流，我們將40億美元再投資於資本支出（CapEx），其中一半用於已簽約的大型專案；同時透過股利、庫藏股回購以及對少數股東的強制收購（squeeze out），合計向股東回饋80億美元。

And return on capital, the single-most important metric for any capital-intensive business, rose 130 basis points to 11.6%.

而資本報酬率——對任何資本密集型企業而言最重要的單一指標——上升130個基點至11.6%。

We also reached a record backlog of projects, $4.4 billion for our sale of gas business and $5.7 billion for our third-party engineering business, $10 billion in total.

我們的專案在手訂單也創下新高：售氣（sale of gas）業務為44億美元，第三方工程業務為57億美元，合計100億美元。

I'm pleased to say that we won practically every project we chose to pursue. This provides the foundation for growth in future years as we bring these projects online. And with respect to integration, it's largely done.

我很高興地說，我們幾乎贏得了所有我們選擇投入競標的專案。這為未來幾年、隨著這些專案陸續投產，奠定了成長基礎。至於整合工作，基本上已經完成。

We conducted our first employee survey, and we were pleased with the overall results. This is a good indication of how well the team integrated 2 high-quality companies in a relatively short period of time.

我們進行了第一次員工調查，對整體結果感到滿意。這顯示團隊在相對短的時間內，成功整合了兩家高品質公司。

We began implementing our strategy, which is to build network density in core industrial gas geographies, leverage our significant advantage in engineering and technology to win more than our fair share of sale of gas opportunities and capture the full value of the merger, which includes cost and CapEx efficiencies and growth synergies, and it is the latter that we are getting more and more excited about every day.

我們開始落實策略：在核心工業氣體市場提升管網密度；運用我們在工程與技術上的顯著優勢，贏得超過「應得份額」的售氣機會；並充分實現併購的全部價值，包括成本與資本支出效率，以及成長綜效——而後者正是我們每天都越來越感到振奮的部分。

Coming out of this year, we definitely expect to see additional growth from merger synergies on top of base industrial production, price and project start ups. And beyond that, beyond the typical 3-year kind of post-merger phase, I believe the greatest and most enduring value created from our merger will come from the sharing of our collective knowledge, experience and capabilities.

在今年結束之際，我們明確預期，除了工業產量的基本面、價格以及專案啟動之外，還會看到來自併購綜效的額外成長。而且更進一步，超越典型的併購後三年階段，我相信本次合併所創造最大且最持久的價值，將來自我們集體知識、經驗與能力的共享。

We also wanted to establish a strong foundation of operational excellence. Our safety performance continues to trend positively with best-in-class performance in many categories. Another key priority for this year was to implement a robust productivity initiative, and we made a lot of progress towards that end.

我們也希望建立堅實的卓越營運基礎。我們的安全績效持續呈現正向趨勢，在多個類別達到同業最佳水準。今年另一項關鍵優先事項是推動強而有力的生產力提升計畫，而我們在這方面已取得大量進展。

Productivity initiatives need to be revitalized from time to time, and we see the expansion of our digital tools and capabilities driving continuous improvement in our company for years to come.

生產力提升計畫需要不時注入新動能；我們看到數位工具與能力的擴展，將在未來多年推動公司持續改善。

Let's talk about 2020. Yes, it is an uncertain world. We gave you a chart in the back, so you can understand our exposure on a country-by-country basis.

接著談談2020年。是的，這是一個充滿不確定性的世界。我們在後面提供了一張圖表，讓各位了解我們按國家別的曝險情況。

It's never a bad idea to have nearly 1/3 of your sales and operating profit in the United States. It is a good time for me to remind you of the resiliency of our business model. We generate strong cash flow through the economic cycle. When the economy is strong, we invest more in CapEx for growth. And when it is weaker, we return more of that cash to shareholders. Add to that, the value created by our merger, and you can see why I am confident in our ability to continue to generate double-digit earnings growth.

讓近三分之一的銷售額與營業利益來自美國，從來都不是壞事。這也是提醒各位我們商業模式韌性的好時機。我們能在景氣循環中持續產生強勁現金流。當經濟強勁時，我們增加成長型資本支出（CapEx）投資。而當景氣較弱時，我們把更多現金回饋給股東。再加上併購所創造的價值，你就能理解為何我對我們持續創造兩位數盈餘成長的能力充滿信心。

Regarding climate change. Everyone wants to know if you're a part of the problem or part of the solution. Here at Linde, we are definitely part of the solution. We have a long track record of success in sustainability having been recognized in the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index Chemicals Sector for 17 consecutive years, the only chemical company in 2019 that can make that claim.

關於氣候變遷。每個人都想知道你是問題的一部分，還是解方的一部分。在林德，我們絕對是解方的一部分。我們在永續發展方面有長期成功的紀錄：連續17年獲納入道瓊永續世界指數（Dow Jones Sustainability World Index）化學品產業類別；而在2019年，只有我們這一家化學公司能夠做出這項宣稱。

We are also aligned with the aspirations of the Paris Climate Accord. However, this requires many parties, government, industry and society as a whole to come together and play an active role.

我們也與《巴黎氣候協定》的願景一致。然而，這需要政府、產業與整體社會等多方共同合作並積極參與。

I can tell you that as a leading industrial company, we will certainly continue to do our part to make our world more sustainable. In fact, that is our mission statement, making our world more productive. Through our solutions, technologies and services, we are making our customers more successful and helping to protect and sustain our planet.

我可以告訴各位，作為領先的工業公司，我們一定會持續盡一己之力，讓世界更具永續性。事實上，這也是我們的使命宣言：讓我們的世界更具生產力。透過我們的解決方案、技術與服務，我們讓客戶更成功，同時協助保護並維繫我們的地球。

At Linde, we make products that are beneficial to our environment and society as a whole. In fact, over 50% of our sales today come from our sustainability portfolio, that is products that bring environmental and social benefits. We make high-purity oxygen for medical needs and to purify water for drinking. We produce krypton that is used for insulation. We make nitrogen that helps keep our customers' operations safer. We manufacture coatings for turbine blades that make aircraft engines more energy efficient. And we make hydrogen to desulfurize and decarbonize transportation fuels to meet ever stricter environmental standards.

在林德，我們生產的產品對環境與整體社會都有益。事實上，我們目前超過50%的銷售額來自永續產品組合，也就是能帶來環境與社會效益的產品。我們提供醫療所需的高純度氧氣，並用於淨化飲用水。我們生產用於隔熱的氪氣（krypton）。我們生產的氮氣有助於讓客戶的作業更安全。我們製造用於渦輪葉片的塗層，使飛機引擎更節能。我們也生產氫氣，用於交通燃料的脫硫與去碳化，以符合日益嚴格的環保標準。

In terms of greenhouse gas impact, the products we provide, enable our customers to avoid more than twice as much greenhouse gas emissions as Linde emits as an entire company. That is a track record we are proud of, and we certainly want to continue to live out our mission statement of making our world more productive.

就溫室氣體影響而言，我們所提供的產品，能協助客戶避免的溫室氣體排放量，超過林德全公司自身排放量的兩倍。這是我們引以為傲的紀錄，我們也必定會持續實踐「讓世界更具生產力」的使命宣言。

But in addition to that, we want to set new sustainability goals. By the year 2028, which marks 10 years from the date of our merger, we will invest at least $1 billion in new decarbonization capital projects. Examples of that would be carbon capture and sequestration; hydrogen mobility, like the agreement we just signed to build hydrogen refueling stations in South Korea; green hydrogen projects for industrial customers; and hydrogen to produce renewable fuels.

但除此之外，我們希望設定新的永續發展目標。到2028年，也就是自我們合併日起滿10年之際，我們將在新的去碳化資本專案上投資至少10億美元。相關例子包括碳捕集與封存；氫能移動應用，例如我們剛簽署在南韓建置加氫站的協議；為工業客戶提供的綠氫專案；以及以氫來生產再生燃料。

We will spend at least 1/3 of our R&D annual budget on decarbonization. We will continue to develop industry leading technologies, like dry reforming, which uses CO2 as a feedstock in lieu of steam to produce syngas. This is a technology we developed in conjunction with BASF. And we want to continue to advance our own carbon capture technologies to make them more economically viable. We will continue to invest in promising green hydrogen technologies, like our $50 million investment in ITM to scale up their electrolyzer technology for industrial and hydrogen mobility applications.

我們將把每年研發預算至少1/3用於去碳化。我們將持續開發業界領先的技術，例如乾式重整（dry reforming），其以CO2作為原料，取代蒸汽來生產合成氣。這項技術是我們與巴斯夫（BASF）共同開發的。我們也希望持續推進自有的碳捕集技術，使其在經濟性上更具可行性。我們將持續投資具前景的綠氫技術，例如我們對ITM投資5,000萬美元，以擴大其電解槽技術規模，應用於工業與氫能移動領域。

We will double our annual purchases of renewable power. How much is that, you might ask? Today, we buy about 16 terawatts of renewable power or about $1 billion of renewable power purchased each year. That is enough electricity to power 4.7 million homes here in Germany. And our goal is to double the amount of renewable power we will purchase. As a result, we will lower our greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 35%. Why not more, you might ask? We would love to, but that's going to be a function of the availability and reliability of renewable power, which is far from certain today in many of the countries we operate in around the world.

我們將把每年的再生電力採購量提高一倍。你可能會問，這是多少？目前我們每年採購約16太瓦的再生電力，或約每年採購10億美元的再生電力。這相當於足以為德國境內470萬戶家庭供電。而我們的目標是將再生電力採購量加倍。因此，我們將把溫室氣體排放強度降低35%。你可能會問，為什麼不是更多？我們當然希望更高，但這將取決於再生電力的可得性與可靠性；在我們全球許多營運所在國家，這點在今日仍遠非確定。

I can tell you that everyone at Linde, all 80,000 of us, are excited and passionate about what we can do to make our world more sustainable.

我可以告訴各位，林德（Linde）全體8萬名員工都對我們能為讓世界更永續所做的事感到興奮並充滿熱情。

And now I'll turn it over to Matt.

現在我把時間交給Matt。

Thanks, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. I'd like to start by providing a summary of the fourth quarter results, which can be found on Slide 5. Sales of $7.1 billion increased 1% over both prior year and third quarter. Versus 2018, underlying sales improved 3% due to 1% more volume and 2% higher pricing. Price improvements are broad-based across every region and in line with global weighted inflation rates. The volume increase is mostly driven by project startup activity as organic volumes were relatively stable due to growth in Americas and engineering, mostly offset by weaker economic conditions in Europe and South Pacific. Furthermore, Asia volumes declined from lower activity in the electronics end market and prior year equipment sales.

謝謝你，Steve，各位下午好。我想先就第四季業績做摘要說明，內容可見第5頁投影片。銷售額71億美元，較去年同期與第三季皆成長1%。相較2018年，基礎銷售額提升3%，其中1%來自銷量增加、2%來自價格上調。價格改善在各地區皆普遍發生，並與全球加權通膨率一致。銷量增加主要由專案啟動活動帶動；由於美洲與工程業務成長，內生成長的銷量相對穩定，但多數被歐洲與南太平洋較疲弱的經濟情勢所抵銷。此外，亞洲銷量因電子終端市場活動降低以及去年設備銷售基期因素而下滑。

Comparing to third quarter 2019, underlying sequential sales improved 1%, primarily from timing in the Engineering business. Note that we continue to experience positive sequential pricing, but the rounding has resulted in 0%. We have included more detailed information in the appendix, including Slide 10, which provides 2019 sales by key geography. This information is intended to clarify Linde country exposure and the overall portfolio mix.

與2019年第三季相比，基礎的連續季銷售額提升1%，主要來自工程業務的時點因素。請注意，我們仍持續出現正向的連續季價格走勢，但因四捨五入後呈現為0%。我們在附錄中提供更詳細資訊，包括第10頁投影片，呈現2019年按主要地理區域劃分的銷售額。這些資訊旨在釐清林德的國別曝險以及整體投資組合結構。

Two points to note on Slide 10 are that gases and engineering account for 84% and 10% of global sales, respectively, and that the top 12 gas geographies represent over 3/4 of global sales. These top geographies are comprised of 10 different countries and 2 subregions of Continental Europe.

第10頁投影片有兩點值得注意：氣體與工程業務分別占全球銷售額的84%與10%；而前12大氣體業務地理區域合計占全球銷售額逾3/4。這些主要地理區域由10個不同國家以及歐洲大陸的2個次區域所構成。

Referring back to Slide 5. Operating profit of $1.35 billion or 19% of sales, increased 17% from prior year and resulted in a 250 basis point margin improvement. This margin expansion was largely attributed to the significant productivity efforts from all employees managing local price and cost inflation.

回到第5頁投影片。營業利益13.5億美元，占銷售額19%，較去年同期成長17%，並帶來250個基點的利潤率提升。此利潤率擴張主要歸因於全體員工在管理當地價格與成本通膨方面所做的大幅生產力提升努力。

Sequentially, operating profit declined 3%, and operating margin decreased 80 basis points. This decline was anticipated due to timing of engineering project completions. However, sequential operating margins increased in all geographic segments, as management actions continued to improve business quality.

以連續季來看，營業利益下滑3%，營業利益率下降80個基點。這一下滑如預期，原因在於工程專案完工時點。然而，各地理區隔的連續季營業利益率皆上升，因管理層的行動持續改善業務品質。

Year-over-year EPS improved 25% compared to the 17% increase in operating profit. The difference relates to how we have been deploying the divestiture proceeds, either to reduce net interest expense or lower share count.

每股盈餘（EPS）年增25%，高於營業利益17%的增幅。差異在於我們如何運用資產剝離所得款項：要麼用於降低淨利息費用，要麼用於減少流通股數。

The balance sheet still has significant cushion versus our target A credit rating, so we have ample dry powder for both growth investments and distributions back to shareholders.

資產負債表相較我們目標的A級信用評等仍有顯著緩衝，因此我們在成長投資與回饋股東的分配方面都擁有充足的「乾粉」可用。

In fact, you can see that fourth quarter operating cash flow of $2.2 billion is 16% above the third quarter and represents approximately 105% of fourth quarter EBITDA. Obviously, a very strong cash performance, which I'll speak to more on the next slide.

事實上，你可以看到第四季營運現金流22億美元，較第三季高出16%，約相當於第四季EBITDA的105%。顯然這是非常強勁的現金表現，我會在下一頁投影片進一步說明。

CapEx increased 6% sequentially due to base CapEx. This increase was primarily driven by growth investments that do not meet the backlog criteria, such as small on-site plants.

資本支出（CapEx）因基礎資本支出而較上季增加6%。此增加主要由不符合在手訂單（backlog）認列標準的成長投資所帶動，例如小型現場（on-site）工廠。

And as a reminder, base CapEx represents any capital spending that is not directly listed in the $4.4 billion sale of gas project backlog. That would include maintenance, replacement and other growth initiatives.

並提醒各位，基礎資本支出是指任何未直接列入44億美元氣體專案在手訂單銷售中的資本支出。其中包括維護、汰換以及其他成長計畫。

The last figure shows return on capital, which is one of the most important metrics for this industry. It improved 40 basis points from third quarter and 130 basis points from 2018, due to pricing, cost management and project contribution over a relatively stable capital base.

最後一個數字顯示資本報酬率，這是本產業最重要的指標之一。在相對穩定的資本基礎上，受惠於定價、成本管理與專案貢獻，該指標較第三季改善40個基點，較2018年改善130個基點。

Please turn to Slide 6 for further details on 2019 full year cash flow. The left side shows operating cash flow by quarter, summing to $6.1 billion, including a $0.8 billion outflow related to one-time merger and restructuring payments. You can see a substantial improvement from the first half, which averaged $1 billion per quarter to the second half, which averaged $2 billion per quarter.

請翻到第6頁投影片，以取得2019年全年現金流的更多細節。左側顯示按季度列示的營運現金流，合計61億美元，其中包含與一次性合併與重整付款相關的8億美元現金流出。你可以看到上半年（每季平均10億美元）到下半年（每季平均20億美元）有顯著改善。

There are 3 primary drivers to this improvement. First, as anticipated, the merger-related cash outflows reduced from $516 million in the first half, to $287 million in the second half. In fact, the fourth quarter had only $92 million as we expect this number to continue to decline. Second, there is inherent seasonality in the cash flows due to timing of cash bonus, tax and interest payments, where first half has more outflows than the second half. Finally, the improved operating results and working capital management supported stronger cash flow in the back-half of the year.

這項改善主要有三個驅動因素。第一，如預期，合併相關的現金流出從上半年的5.16億美元降至下半年的2.87億美元。事實上，第四季僅9,200萬美元，我們預期此數字將持續下降。第二，由於現金獎金、稅款與利息支付時點的關係，現金流具有季節性，上半年流出通常多於下半年。最後，營運成果改善與營運資金管理，支撐了下半年更強勁的現金流。

Looking ahead, I still anticipate full year operating cash flow to EBITDA ratios in the high 70 to low 80 percentile range, after adjusting for any merger-related cash outflows.

展望未來，在調整任何合併相關現金流出後，我仍預期全年營運現金流對EBITDA比率將落在70%高段至80%低段的區間。

The combination of the $6.1 billion operating cash flow, $5.1 billion divestiture proceeds and $0.4 billion, primarily from debt, provided $11.6 billion of capital available for deployment in 2019.

2019年可供運用的資金合計116億美元，來源包括61億美元的營運現金流、51億美元的資產剝離所得款項，以及4億美元（主要來自舉債）。

The pie chart to the lower right shows how we allocated that capital, with almost $8 billion going to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases, including the one-time merger squeeze out payment. We also reinvested $4 billion back into the business, with half supporting secured growth.

右下方的圓餅圖顯示我們如何配置該資本，其中近80億美元以股利與股票回購的形式回饋股東，包含一次性的併購擠出（squeeze out）付款。我們也將40億美元再投資回業務，其中一半用於支持具保障的成長。

Overall, the very strong cash generation in 2019, coupled with a disciplined capital allocation process, enabled us to pursue all opportunities that met our investment criteria, while returning the surplus to investors.

整體而言，2019年非常強勁的現金創造能力，加上嚴謹的資本配置流程，使我們得以追求所有符合投資標準的機會，同時將剩餘資金回饋投資人。

I'd like to wrap up by reviewing earnings guidance on Slide 7.

最後我想以第7頁投影片的獲利指引回顧作結。

Full year 2020 EPS guidance range is $8 to $8.25, or 10% to 13% growth rate when excluding an assumed 1% currency headwind. The key drivers to this range can be found in the bottom left section of the slide. Incremental productivity initiatives are anticipated to have the greatest impact on EPS growth, as we continue to see opportunities to optimize the base business. Pricing actions, net of cost inflation, will also deliver incremental earnings. Furthermore, share repurchases and project backlog round up the positive factors.

2020年全年每股盈餘（EPS）指引區間為8.00至8.25美元；若排除假設1%的匯率逆風，成長率為10%至13%。此區間的關鍵驅動因素可在投影片左下角找到。隨著我們持續看到優化基礎業務的機會，預期增量生產力計畫將對EPS成長帶來最大影響。此外，定價措施在扣除成本通膨後，也將帶來增量獲利。再者，股票回購與專案訂單積壓（backlog）構成其他正面因素。

Recall that project backlog represents incremental sales and earnings growth, underpinned by long-term customer contracts with a fixed payment structure.

請記得，專案訂單積壓代表增量銷售與獲利成長，其基礎是具固定付款結構的長期客戶合約。

Note that these top 4 EPS growth drivers are from either management actions or deployed capital, and thus are independent of macroeconomic or geopolitical effects.

請注意，這四大EPS成長驅動因素來自管理層行動或已投入的資本，因此不受總體經濟或地緣政治影響。

The final factor of base volume and FX would be impacted by the macro-economic climate, and thus leads to most of the variability.

最後一項因素為基礎銷量與外匯（FX），會受到總體經濟環境影響，因此也是變動性最大的來源。

Industrial production and the U.S. dollar average spot rate are the primary indicators. As you can see, the current guidance range assumes no help from the economy, in fact, it is currently estimated to be a headwind. Of course, this is just an assumption at this stage. If the economy is better, we will capture that value, but we believe this assumption is prudent in light of recent economic trends.

工業生產與美元平均即期匯率是主要指標。如各位所見，目前的指引區間假設經濟不會帶來助益；事實上，目前估計反而是逆風。當然，現階段這只是個假設。若經濟表現更好，我們會把握並反映其價值，但考量近期經濟趨勢，我們認為此假設較為審慎。

For the first quarter, we are estimating EPS in the range of $1.86 to $1.94 or an increase of 11% to 16%, excluding a 1% currency headwind. This range assumes normal seasonality, in addition to headwinds in our Chinese merchant and package volumes due to the coronavirus outbreak. While it's still too early to assess the overall effect of the virus, this range incorporates the most recent estimate of our customers' impact.

第一季我們預估EPS區間為1.86至1.94美元；若排除1%的匯率逆風，年增11%至16%。此區間假設季節性正常，並納入因新冠病毒爆發導致我們在中國的商用與包裹量面臨逆風。雖然現在評估病毒的整體影響仍為時過早，但此區間已納入對客戶受影響程度的最新估計。

In summary, 2019 marked a successful inaugural year, despite only having 10 months since the effective merger date. 80,000 employees worldwide came together as one and worked tirelessly to deliver on our commitments and integrate two great companies into one.

總結而言，2019年是成功的開局之年，儘管自合併生效日起僅有10個月。全球8萬名員工凝聚為一體，不懈努力以兌現承諾，並將兩家優秀公司整合為一。

Looking ahead, we're excited about additional opportunities to create further value through business optimization, technology sharing and portfolio enhancements. And while the economic outlook may be unclear, we have confidence in our ability to continue growing earnings per share double-digit percent.

展望未來，我們對透過業務優化、技術共享與投資組合強化來創造更多價值的機會感到振奮。即使經濟前景可能不明朗，我們仍有信心持續實現每股盈餘的兩位數百分比成長。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Q&A.

接下來我想把電話交給問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自Barclays的Duffy Fischer。

First question, just want to touch on some of the carbon footprint stuff that you highlighted, which is admirable. But one way to think about it, if you think between now and 2028, you'll probably spend north of $40 billion in total capital and the capital number you put in there was $1 billion or a little bit more than $1 billion. Can you kind of rectify those numbers? That's a relatively small percent. Does that signify that you don't think there's real capital investment in some of these new green technologies or that you're going to want others? So can you just talk about what that does to your footprint as you move to this lower carbon aspiration?

第一個問題，我想談一下你們強調的碳足跡相關內容，這很值得肯定。但換個角度想，如果從現在到2028年，你們總資本支出可能會超過400億美元，而你們提到的資本數字是10億美元或略高於10億美元。你能否協助釐清這兩個數字？那相對比例相當小。這是否意味著你們認為在某些新的綠色技術上不需要真正的資本投資，或是你們希望由其他人來投資？所以能否談談，當你們朝向較低碳的願景前進時，這對你們的足跡會帶來什麼影響？

Well, yes, the $40 billion, you're just taking $4 billion and extrapolating it over 10 years, that'd be $40 billion, half of that would be large projects. So just about everything we would be talking about in that $1 billion kind of number would be large projects. I do think that there's a very good chance that the number is going to be larger than that based on the projects that I'm looking at today. They're all in various stages, some of them are very early stages, but some of the size of the projects are quite significant. So I think that's a good number to start with, and we'll continue to reevaluate that over time.

是的，400億美元是你把40億美元外推到10年得到的數字，其中一半會是大型專案。因此，我們在那個約10億美元的數字中所談到的幾乎都會是大型專案。我確實認為，根據我今天看到的專案，這個數字很有可能會比這更大。這些專案都在不同階段，有些非常早期，但有些專案的規模相當可觀。所以我認為這是個不錯的起點，我們也會隨時間持續重新評估。

Great. And then would you expect the returns on that $1 billion? Or if the number is larger than $1 billion to be in the same range as what the historic Linde-Praxair was? Or would they get a different discount rate applied to them?

了解。那你是否預期這10億美元的報酬率——或若金額高於10億美元——會與過去Linde-Praxair的歷史水準相同？還是會適用不同的折現率？

No, I expect them to be the same returns. So just got to be clear about that. But if you look at IRR, we always are looking to earn a good spread above our cost to capital, risk adjusted.

不，我預期報酬率會相同。所以這點必須說清楚。但如果你看內部報酬率（IRR），我們一向追求在風險調整後，能夠高於資本成本的良好利差。

Our next question comes from Nicola Tang with Exane.

下一個問題來自Exane的Nicola Tang。

The first one was on the outlook and the sort of headwinds you're flagging on the base volume and FX side. I was wondering on the base volume side, could you be more specific in terms of the outlook by either geography or by specific end markets? I think in your comments, you mentioned the Q1 headwinds in China, but perhaps you could expand across the regions?

第一個問題是關於展望，以及你們在基礎銷量與外匯方面所提示的逆風。我想請問在基礎銷量方面，你能否就不同地區或特定終端市場，提供更具體的展望？我想在你的評論中，你提到第一季在中國的逆風，但也許你可以擴展到其他地區？

And then the second question was also actually on the sustainability targets. You mentioned the 35% reduction in greenhouse gases in the next 10 years, could you give us the sort of reference point for your CO2 equivalent emissions per dollar of EBITDA today?

第二個問題其實也是關於永續目標。你提到未來10年溫室氣體減量35%，能否提供你們目前以EBITDA每一美元計算的二氧化碳當量排放（CO2e）作為參考基準？

So as far as the volume assumptions, what we're looking at is a weak industrial production, particularly in Europe. And I think all of you -- or many people here are aware of what the December numbers were in Germany. IP was down -- I think it was 3% sequentially and about 7% year-over-year. So declining industrial production certainly in Europe. In the U.S., industrial production is quite weak today. And then if I look at the rest of the world, I think clearly, the start for China is not a positive due to some very unfortunate reasons for them. So I think just based on what we see in the world today, that's kind of our view. Now I could throw South Pacific in that too. Australia is not doing particularly well. So no matter where you look around the world, it's a slow IP growth world. And if it does better, we'll certainly be able to capitalize on that, and it will be reflected in our top line and our bottom line numbers.

就銷量假設而言，我們看到的是工業生產疲弱，尤其是在歐洲。我想各位——或在座許多人——都知道德國12月的數據。工業生產（IP）下滑——我記得環比約下降3%，同比約下降7%。因此歐洲的工業生產確實在下滑。在美國，當前工業生產也相當疲弱。再看世界其他地區，我認為很明顯地，中國的開局並不正面，原因對他們而言非常不幸。所以就我們今天在全球所見，這大致就是我們的看法。我也可以把南太平洋地區算進去。澳洲的表現並不是特別好。因此無論你看世界哪個角落，這都是一個工業生產成長緩慢的世界。如果表現更好，我們當然能夠把握機會，並反映在我們的營收與獲利數字上。

With respect to the greenhouse gas, was your question, what is our footprint today? Was that your question?

關於溫室氣體，你的問題是，我們目前的足跡是多少嗎？你的問題是這個嗎？

Yes. It was, what's the sort of base reference point on CO2 emissions of EBITDA today?

是的。也就是說，以今日的 EBITDA 來看，CO2 排放的基準參考點大概是多少？

Yes. Well, we published that in our sustainability report. The number is about 40 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent annually. And a big percent of that is what they call scope 2 emissions, which basically means if you buy electricity and some of that electricity is produced by carbons, that's just what's available on the grid, then as an electrical consumer, you are penalized, so to speak, with that CO2 emission. So that's why the number ends up being something of that magnitude.

是的。嗯，我們已在永續報告中公布過。這個數字大約是每年 4,000 萬公噸的二氧化碳當量。其中很大一部分是所謂的範疇 2 排放，基本上意思是，如果你購買電力，而其中一部分電力是由含碳能源所發電——也就是電網上可取得的供電組合——那麼作為用電戶，你就會被「算入」相應的 CO2 排放。所以這就是為什麼最後的數字會落在那樣的量級。

Okay. But it also includes scope 3, is that correct?

好的。但這也包含範疇 3，對嗎？

No. Scope 1 and scope 2 includes in that number.

不。那個數字包含的是範疇 1 和範疇 2。

It doesn't include that, okay.

不包含範疇 3，好的。

Yes.

是的。

And our next question comes from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Mike Sison。

Nice end of the year. Steve, you talked about sales synergy is one of the areas that could accelerate in 2020. I don't see that in the EPS drivers, if you will, but is it part of the productivity area? Where does that show up? And maybe give us a little bit of color on what excites you in terms of the sales synergy going forward?

年末愉快。Steve，你提到銷售協同是 2020 年可能加速的領域之一。如果你所說的 EPS 驅動因素來看，我沒有看到這一項，但它是否包含在生產力那一塊？它會反映在哪裡？另外也請你多談一點，未來在銷售協同方面，哪些地方讓你感到振奮？

Yes. It is not on that graph. So we did not attempt to display that. And I said, really kind of coming out of this year, meaning 2020, I was not referring to 2019, I expected to see more contributions. And what excites me is, we just had a global leadership conference, we spent a good part of that conference talking about growth, looking at the combination of applications we have, the strength of our product line portfolio and the work that's being done to optimize that even further going forward.

是的。它不在那張圖上。所以我們沒有嘗試把它呈現在那裡。而我說的是，真正從今年走出來，也就是指 2020 年，我不是指 2019 年，我預期會看到更多貢獻。讓我感到振奮的是，我們剛開完一場全球領導力會議，我們在會議中花了相當多時間談成長，檢視我們所擁有的應用組合、產品線組合的強度，以及為了在未來進一步優化而正在進行的工作。

I look at decarbonization and what both parties bring to the equation in terms of being able to capitalize on some of the growth opportunities that will be there, and I talked a little bit about that in my comments. And then you just kind of get into cross-selling and a lot of other areas that we can take advantage of. So it is something I'm getting more excited about as I see the potential. I do believe that, I've said before, it's hard to put a number on it, but I do think we're going to start seeing it coming out this year and going forward.

我也看到了去碳化，以及雙方在這個議題上各自能帶來的能力，讓我們得以把握未來將出現的一些成長機會；我在評論中也稍微提到過。接著你就會進入交叉銷售以及許多其他我們可以加以利用的領域。因此，隨著我看到這些潛力，我對此越來越感到興奮。我確實相信——我之前也說過——這很難量化，但我確實認為我們會在今年結束後開始看到成效，並在未來持續展現。

Right. And then a quick follow-up in terms of pricing. What are you looking for in 2020? And how much of that is just pricing from the base business as well as maybe improving the pricing culture on the Linde side as you head into 2020?

了解。接著快速追問一下定價方面。你們對 2020 年的定價有什麼期待？其中有多少只是來自基礎業務的定價，以及在邁向 2020 年時，Linde 端的定價文化改善可能帶來多少？

Well, I think, again, if you look at that little Christmas tree chart that we put together for you. I mean, you could infer from that, that we're looking at another 2% price in 2020, and I think that's about the right number at this point. This is something we'll continue to work. It's not a 1 year and done thing. So I think we're making good progress.

嗯，我想，再次地，如果你看我們為各位整理的那張小小的「聖誕樹」圖表。你可以從中推論，我們在 2020 年希望再有約 2% 的價格提升，而我認為以目前來看，這大概是合理的數字。這是我們會持續推進的工作。它不是做一年就結束的事情。所以我認為我們正在取得不錯的進展。

And our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Jeff Zekauskas。

In your vision for 2020, do you expect volumes to grow on a consolidated basis or no?

在你們對 2020 年的展望中，你們預期合併口徑的銷量會成長嗎？還是不會？

Jeff, this is Matt. So right now, when you look at the range that we laid out on the project backlog, absolutely, yes. When you look at the economic inclusive of the FX, if the FX were 0, the upper end may have negligible to slightly positive growth. And again, this is just an IP look at this stage. As Steve mentioned, there are actions to try and grow above IP, even on the base merchant and package with some of the technology. You may view this outlook as conservative, but this is how we've looked at it at this point. And that section there is what's driving most of the range at this stage. But rest assured, if the economy performs better, we will absolutely capture that. Remember, it's a contractual business even in the merchant and to a large extent, package and we obviously would also be taking appropriate actions to try and mitigate any down decline in various markets. So -- but right now, the view is, is that the base would be slightly up to negative and then the project contributions will continue to come through as expected.

Jeff，我是 Matt。所以目前來看，當你看我們對專案積壓（project backlog）所提出的區間，答案絕對是會。如果看經濟情況並把匯率（FX）也納入考量，假設匯率為 0，上緣可能是幾乎沒有成長到略為正成長。而且再次強調，這只是現階段對 IP 的初步觀察。如 Steve 所提到的，我們也有一些行動，試圖在基礎的散裝（merchant）與瓶裝（package）業務上，透過部分技術讓成長高於 IP。你可能會覺得這個展望偏保守，但這是我們目前的看法。而在現階段，該部分是驅動這個區間大多數變動的因素。但請放心，如果經濟表現更好，我們絕對會把握住。請記得，即使在散裝業務、以及在很大程度上的瓶裝業務，這也是一個合約型的生意；當然，我們也會採取適當行動，盡力緩解各市場可能出現的下滑。所以——但目前的看法是，基礎業務可能是小幅成長到負成長，而專案貢獻將如預期持續進來。

Okay. In terms of your, I guess, cost reduction and cash flows, it looks like your cash outflows for restructuring will drop, I don't know, $400 million next year or something like that. So should your cash flows benefit by that? In other words, whatever you generated this year in operating cash flow should be another $400 million, $500 million because of the smaller cash outflows, plus you're going to grow on top of it. It seems like your cost cutting is ahead of schedule over a 3-year period. Is that right? And -- so could you comment on that?

好的。就你們的成本削減與現金流而言，看起來你們明年的重整（restructuring）現金流出會下降，我不知道，大概 4 億美元之類的？所以你們的現金流會因此受益嗎？換句話說，今年你們在營運現金流所產生的金額，明年應該會因為現金流出較小而再多 4 億到 5 億美元，另外你們還會在此基礎上成長。看起來你們在三年期的成本削減進度是超前的。是這樣嗎？所以——你能評論一下嗎？

So this is Matt, again, Jeff. I can answer the first part of the question. Absolutely, you're right. You are correct. The $800 million that we had in 2019 will be much lower in 2020. I would say, at least $500 million. Because to your exact point, a lot of the merger costs are behind us on a cash basis. There are going to be some small ones on some of the final divestitures that occurred here in the back half of the year. You just have some late either income taxes or payments of invoices. And so that part will have some effect in the first half, but then from here on out, it'll be mostly restructuring. And I think as it's been discussed in prior calls, Asia was probably the first out of the gate and corporate Americas. We are in the midst of some in Europe. So I think you will still see some of that effect going through definitely through 2020. And possibly, depending upon the economies, could extend it to 2021, that will be to be determined. But at this stage, from a cash perspective, absolutely would be a decline from 2019 to 2020.

Jeff，我還是 Matt。我可以先回答問題的第一部分。完全正確，你說得對。你是對的。我們 2019 年的 8 億美元在 2020 年會低很多。我會說，至少會少 5 億美元。因為正如你所說，許多併購相關成本在現金基礎上已經大多過去了。今年下半年完成的一些最終資產剝離（divestitures）仍會有一些小額支出。另外還會有一些較晚發生的所得稅或發票付款。因此，這部分在上半年會有一些影響，但之後主要就會是重整。而且我想，如同先前電話會議所討論的，亞洲可能是最早啟動的，企業端與美洲也是。我們目前正在歐洲進行一些相關工作。所以我認為你仍會看到其中一些影響，肯定會延續到 2020 年。並且可能會視經濟情況延伸到 2021 年，這還有待決定。但就現金角度而言，從 2019 年到 2020 年絕對會下降。

Our next question comes from Peter Clark with Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行（Societe Generale）的 Peter Clark。

I have 2 questions on EMEA, if I can? Obviously, a healthy sequential price again. I'm just wondering, particularly in terms of the cylinders, how things are going? Because clearly, the added value you can have through pushing on the cylinder side is probably pretty impressive, I think, when you look at the Linde portfolio that came in. And then the second one on the synergies, you alluded to this, I think, but it's, obviously, Asia first out of the gate, a lot of synergies last year, it's probably the biggest kicker regionally. Would I be right in thinking maybe Europe proportionately produces most on the synergy front in 2020?

我有兩個關於 EMEA 的問題，可以嗎？顯然，價格又出現健康的環比上升。我只是想了解一下，特別是在鋼瓶（cylinders）方面，進展如何？因為很明顯，當你看併入的林德產品組合時，透過推動鋼瓶端所能帶來的附加價值，可能相當可觀。第二個問題是關於協同效應，你們我想也提到過：顯然，亞洲最先起跑，去年有很多協同效應，從區域來看可能是最大的推動力。我是否可以理解為，2020 年在協同效應方面，歐洲按比例可能貢獻最多？

Yes. Thanks, Peter. Yes, 3% price year-over-year, another price sequentially. And as you've heard me say this before, it's always good to be seeing price on a trending basis. 50% of this business is packaged gases. So you don't move prices that well unless you're doing a good job on a transaction basis in a lot of, -- with a lot of customers.

是的。謝謝你，Peter。是的，價格同比上漲 3%，而且價格也再次環比上升。正如你之前聽我說過的，看到價格呈趨勢性上行總是好事。這項業務有 50% 是包裝氣體（packaged gases）。所以除非你在大量客戶的交易層面做得很好，否則不可能把價格推動得這麼順。

Yes, the Eastern European business that was -- the old Linde AG business is now part of Linde plc, is a great franchise. I think you appropriately pointed that out.

是的，東歐業務——也就是原林德股份公司（Linde AG）的業務，現在已成為林德公司（Linde plc）的一部分——是一個非常優質的特許經營（franchise）。我認為你指出得很恰當。

With respect to productivity, Matt started talking about, yes, Asia was out of the gates quickly, corporate moved pretty well, Americas moved pretty quickly and EMEA is a little bit slower in terms of addressing some of the personnel adjustments that are part of the merger. And we knew that coming into this, we need to work through the European Works Councils, work through the local works councils, and that's something that we've been doing on a very constructive basis. But there will be more to come as a result of the negotiations that have taken place to date.

就生產力而言，Matt 開始談到：是的，亞洲起步很快，總部整合推進得也相當順利，美洲推進也很快；而 EMEA 在處理併購所涉及的一些人員調整方面稍微慢一些。我們在進入這次交易時就知道會這樣：我們需要與歐洲工會委員會（European Works Councils）以及各地的地方工會委員會協商，而我們一直以非常建設性的方式在推進。但基於迄今為止已進行的談判結果，後續還會有更多進展。

And our next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 David Begleiter。

Steve, just on your balance sheet, you entered the year still underlevered, what's your thinking and Matt's thinking on perhaps leveraging off the balance sheet a little bit more to maybe buy back a little bit more stock?

Steve，關於你們的資產負債表：你們在年初時槓桿仍偏低，你和 Matt 是否考慮把資產負債表再多加一點槓桿，或許用來多回購一些股票？

I'll let Matt answer that.

我讓 Matt 來回答。

So David, you're exactly right. I mean, we are looking for a target rating of A/ A2, and our current balance sheet has significant room to go -- to reach there, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks. So we ended the year at a net debt figure of around $11 billion. Clearly, we're going to raise that. My view is probably $2 billion is kind of a round number that I think we would, at a minimum, look to raise it possibly more. It depends on conditions, a lot of different conditions. But I think when you look at -- like I mentioned in 2019, I mean, we were able to distribute and utilize almost $12 billion of capital. So I think we had a good start, and we were able to -- proceeds were higher-than-anticipated, cash was higher-than-anticipated. Those are good problems to have. So we probably got a little bit behind on deploying the capital, but that just gives us more ample dry powder and opportunity as we look forward. So nobody knows what will happen in the markets, but we will continue to have a very strong balance sheet that we can leverage and utilize, and that's something we'll continue to do.

David，你說得完全正確。我們的目標評級是 A／A2，而如我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們目前的資產負債表距離達到該水準仍有相當大的空間。所以我們在年底的淨負債大約是 110 億美元。很明顯，我們會把它提高。我的看法是，大約 20 億美元是一個整數的量級，我認為我們至少會考慮把淨負債提高到這個程度，甚至可能更多。這取決於市場狀況，以及很多不同的條件。但如果你看——就像我提到的，2019 年我們能夠分配並運用將近 120 億美元的資本。所以我認為我們有一個很好的開局，而且我們能夠——處分所得高於預期、現金也高於預期。這些都是好問題。所以我們在資本部署上可能稍微落後了一點，但這也讓我們在往前看時擁有更充足的「乾火藥」與機會。沒有人知道市場會發生什麼，但我們會持續維持非常強健的資產負債表，並可加以運用與槓桿化，這也是我們會持續做的事。

Perfect. And Steve and Matt, just on the merger cost synergies. I know they're kind of embedded in productivity. But can you talk about what are the incremental merger cost synergies in 2020 versus '19?

很好。另外，Steve 和 Matt，關於併購成本協同效應。我知道它們某種程度上被包含在生產力裡。但你們能否談談 2020 年相較於 2019 年，新增的併購成本協同效應是多少？

I don't -- David, I don't really try to separate those out anymore in terms of buckets. I'm just looking at operating margins, larger productivity buckets. I don't try to distinguish as to whether it came out of a merger bucket or it came out of the productivity bucket. So to me a cost -- a cost saving is a cost saving, and that really is the way we're looking at it. And the way you and everybody else will know that we're accomplishing what we hope to do coming in this merger is if operating margins continue to expand, and they are. If you -- if I just do the math, with the fourth quarter gas margins ex engineering 20%. So we're starting to make some good progress. I think that's going to continue. Matt has been talking about cash flow this morning as well, and that's obviously a very good sign that a merger is working and that the costs are coming out and the cash flow is flowing.

David，我現在不太會再把那些拆分成不同的「桶」來看。我只看營業利潤率，以及更大的生產力類別。我不會去區分它是來自併購那一桶，還是來自生產力那一桶。所以對我而言，成本——節省就是節省，這就是我們看待它的方式。而你以及其他所有人判斷我們是否達成這次併購目標的方式，就是看營業利潤率是否持續擴張，而它確實正在擴張。如果你——如果我簡單算一下，第四季氣體業務的利潤率（不含工程）是 20%。所以我們開始取得一些不錯的進展。我認為這會持續下去。Matt 今天早上也談到了現金流，這顯然也是併購運作良好的一個很好的訊號：成本正在下降，現金流正在流入。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Could you touch on 2 things. One, I guess, can you directly address the investor concern about Linde's ability to pass through carbon prices to the extent that they're enacted in different parts of the world? And secondly, as you think about the impact of a softer end market environment, is this showing or accelerating any process to rationalize the broader Linde footprint?

能否談兩件事。第一，我想，你能否直接回應投資人對林德在全球不同地區若實施碳價時，能否將碳成本轉嫁出去的疑慮？第二，當你們思考終端市場環境轉弱的影響時，這是否會顯現或加速任何合理化林德更廣泛營運版圖（footprint）的流程？

As far as the footprint itself, I mean, we have spent a lot of time looking at the footprint, we look at all the countries that we're in as a result of the combination. We look at some of the businesses that we both have been in that we brought to the merger, and we have plans around all of that. Now some of that takes time. Usually, it takes longer than I like, but we have a process. We're working through it diligently. We know what we want to do. I'm not really familiar with the point on not being able to pass through higher carbon prices. I mean that is something that we have contractually around the world, and we've been aware that this was something that could happen. I'd say, going back 5 or 6 years, we started making sure that our contracts had provisions that if there is any environmental legislation of any type that might cause some type of carbon tax as a result of electricity consumption or making hydrogen and CO2 as the byproduct or what have you, that we would be able to pass that through and customers accept those terms.

就營運版圖本身而言，我們花了很多時間檢視版圖；因為這次合併，我們會檢視我們所在的所有國家。我們也會檢視雙方在合併前各自經營、並帶入合併的部分業務，而我們對這些都有相應的計畫。當然，其中有些需要時間。通常會比我希望的更久，但我們有一套流程。我們正勤勉地推進。我們知道自己想做什麼。至於「無法轉嫁更高碳價」這點，我其實不太熟悉這個說法。我的意思是，這在全球各地我們都有合約條款安排，而且我們也一直知道這種情況可能發生。我會說，大約在 5、6 年前，我們就開始確保合約中包含相關條款：如果出現任何類型的環境立法，可能因用電或製氫、以及 CO2 作為副產品等原因而導致某種碳稅，我們能夠將其轉嫁出去，而客戶也接受這些條款。

Our next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Bob Koort。

Just wondering if you could talk, Steve, on Slide 7, the Christmas tree, you called it, the drivers of growth in 2020. How do those look different than what happened in 2019 when you had the slightly higher earnings growth, what were the variances year-on-year there in terms of contribution.

Steve，我想請你談談第 7 張投影片，你稱之為「聖誕樹」的那張，關於 2020 年成長的驅動因素。這些因素看起來與 2019 年發生的情況有何不同？2019 年你們的盈餘成長略高；就貢獻度而言，兩年之間的差異是什麼？

Bob, it's Matt. I can probably answer that. I think when you look at the price cost inflation, productivity, those -- you can look at it either way. Do you put price net of inflation or do you put productivity net of inflation. But I would say, the combination of those 2 were -- contributed the largest amount. If you want to call it the management self-help. I think from a backlog perspective, we are expecting more in 2020 than in 2019 due to the start-up range.

Bob，我是 Matt。我大概可以回答這個問題。我認為當你看價格成本通膨、生產力這些因素時——你可以用兩種方式來看。你是用扣除通膨後的價格，還是用扣除通膨後的生產力。但我會說，這兩者的組合——貢獻了最大的一部分。如果你想把它稱為管理層自助（management self-help）。我認為從在手訂單（backlog）的角度來看，由於啟動（start-up）範圍的開始，我們預期 2020 年會比 2019 年更多。

Share repurchases. Obviously, we repurchased on a net basis $2.6 billion in 2019, $2.6 billion. Looking forward, we have ample capacity to do that or more. The base volume FX. FX was quite severe, at minus 4%, but the base volumes, as you saw, was actually positive at 2%. So that would have created a negative 2. We are anticipating a worse outlook in 2020 than that. So if '19's macroeconomic was a repeat in 2020, obviously, that would be a positive for us all around on this assumption. But at this stage -- again, this is an assumption. We're not projecting that we know the future. We just have an assumption or trying to lay out the basic guidelines, and we'll manage the business accordingly.

股票回購。很明顯地，我們在 2019 年以淨額基礎回購了 26 億美元，26 億美元。展望未來，我們有充足的能力做到同樣規模或更多。基礎量與匯率（FX）。匯率影響相當嚴重，為負 4%，但如你所見，基礎量實際上是正 2%。因此那會造成負 2%。我們預期 2020 年的展望會比那更差。所以如果 2019 年的總體經濟在 2020 年重演，顯然在這個假設下，對我們整體而言都會是正面因素。但在這個階段——再次強調，這是一個假設。我們並不是在預測我們知道未來。我們只是有一個假設，或試著把基本指引（basic guidelines）列出來，並會據此管理業務。

Got it. And Steve, I think you made the comment about looking at your project execution on a risk-adjusted basis. Your backlog, obviously, is much more tilted to Asia than your current portfolio. Can you talk about how you look at project return hurdles in Asia relative maybe to the core business that's generating those 12% returns today?

了解。Steve，我想你提到過以風險調整（risk-adjusted）的基礎來看你的專案執行。你的在手訂單顯然比你目前的投資組合更偏向亞洲。你能談談你如何看待亞洲的專案報酬門檻（return hurdles），相較於目前產生 12% 報酬的核心業務嗎？

We look at them the same way. I mean, it's starting off with what is your cost to capital with the expected return, adjusting for risks. And when I say risk, I mean, I'll give an example of a very large project with Samsung that we're starting to start up as we speak. Long-standing customer. I think we all know who Samsung is. We've had a great relationship with them over years. We have an incumbent position in several of their locations. They pay in about 25 days. So when I go through the normal assessment of risk, they come out very well as a low risk, and it's an excellent return. So I don't really look at projects in Asia any differently than I would look at them in other parts of the world, but it's always important to go through that risk profile to make sure that what you think is a return that you should get, you'll actually get it.

我們用同樣的方式來看。我的意思是，先從你的資本成本（cost of capital）與預期報酬開始，並針對風險做調整。當我說風險時，我舉個例子：我們正在啟動的一個與三星（Samsung）的非常大型專案，就在我們說話的同時正要開始啟動。他們是長期客戶。我想大家都知道三星是誰。多年來我們與他們維持很好的關係。我們在他們幾個據點都有既有（incumbent）的地位。他們大約 25 天付款。所以當我走完一般的風險評估流程時，他們的結果非常好，屬於低風險，而且報酬非常優秀。因此我不會把亞洲的專案看得跟世界其他地方有什麼不同，但走過那個風險輪廓（risk profile）始終很重要，以確保你認為應該拿到的報酬，實際上也能拿到。

Our next question comes from Geoff Haire with UBS Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 UBS Securities 的 Geoff Haire。

I just want to ask 2 quick questions. First of all, on the green hydrogen comments you made at the very start of the call, you've got a number of electrolyzer units at the moment. I was wondering if you could just tell us what the average size of that is? And with the ITM Power investment, where do you think that could go in the future? And also could you just give us a quick update on how things are in China from Linde's point of view just in relation to the coronavirus?

我想快速問兩個問題。首先，關於你在電話會議一開始提到的綠氫（green hydrogen）評論，你們目前有多套電解槽（electrolyzer）裝置。我想請問其平均規模大概是多少？另外，關於對 ITM Power 的投資，你認為未來可能會發展到什麼程度？還有，能否也請你從林德（Linde）的角度，就新冠病毒（coronavirus）相關，簡要更新一下中國目前的情況？

Okay. All right. So we have about 80 electrolyzers under operation, about 40 megawatts. So you can do the math there. A lot of them are quite small. Typical module size today out of ITM is about 2 megawatts. There are plans to grow that in terms of making larger scale modules, which then can be stacked, and you can build out the remaining plant equipment and systems around that. I think the number -- it's hard for me to put a number on what it can be. But I think we're looking at much larger projects going forward, particularly with some of the industrial customers we're talking to, they have an interest, a sincere interest in moving to green hydrogen and the connected load, the megawatt load would be quite high based on some of the things I'm looking at. So it's going to grow a lot. Now so what are some of the hurdles? Today, the cost of electrolysis for producing hydrogen through electrolysis is probably 4x what it would be based on producing hydrogen from more conventional means, like natural gas-based steam methane reforming. So there's some work that needs to be done to bring the cost down, scaling up is part of it, more efficient modules is part of it, lower cost, renewable power is part of that. So we're very much cognizant of that, and those are things that we're working on. So that will help drive this marketplace, the ability to bring those costs down. Of course, if government steps in and provides some of that difference, that would help it move more quickly.

好的。好。我們大約有 80 套電解槽在運轉中，約 40 兆瓦。所以你可以自己算一下。其中很多都相當小。目前 ITM 的典型模組尺寸大約是 2 兆瓦。他們計畫在擴大模組規模、做出更大尺度的模組，之後可以堆疊（stacked），並在其周邊建置其餘的廠務設備與系統。我覺得——要我給出它能到多大的數字，對我來說很難。但我認為我們往後會看到更大型的專案，特別是我們正在洽談的一些工業客戶，他們對轉向綠氫有興趣，而且是認真的興趣；依我看到的一些情況，連接負載（connected load）的兆瓦負載會相當高。所以它會大幅成長。那麼有哪些門檻（hurdles）呢？以今天來看，透過電解製氫的電解成本，大概是用較傳統方式製氫（例如以天然氣為基礎的蒸汽甲烷重整，steam methane reforming）的 4 倍。因此需要做一些工作來把成本降下來；擴大規模是其中一部分、更高效率的模組是一部分、降低成本的再生能源電力也是其中一部分。所以我們非常清楚這點，而這些也是我們正在努力的方向。因此，能把這些成本降下來的能力，將有助於推動這個市場。當然，如果政府介入並補貼其中一部分差額，將有助於更快推進。

To China and coronavirus. We have about 2,600 people in China. In the Wuhan region, we have about 1% of our people are in Wuhan. We have very small operations there today. So with respect to Wuhan, we're not dramatically affected. No -- fortunately, as of today, no one of our 2,600 employees nor any of our employees around the world have a confirmed -- have been confirmed with coronavirus. So we're very pleased to hear that. We provided aid as a corporation to our Chinese team, and much of that is flowing to Wuhan. We prioritize the flow of key products that are needed to fight this virus, like oxygen, medical gases. And obviously, we've been watching the situation very closely from a business standpoint. On-site customers have not really shown much of an effect, not yet. The merchant liquid, to give you an example, in a typical year during lunar new year, merchant liquid capacity would probably drop to about 30%. Rather than seeing 1 week of that this year, we saw 2 weeks and they're slowly coming back from that. And as Matt explained early on, we've accounted for that.

談到中國與新冠病毒。我們在中國大約有 2,600 名員工。在武漢地區，我們大約有 1% 的員工在武漢。我們目前在那裡的營運規模很小。因此就武漢而言，我們並未受到重大影響。沒有——幸運的是，截至今天，我們 2,600 名員工中沒有任何人，或我們全球任何員工，有人被確認——被確診新冠病毒。所以我們很高興聽到這點。我們公司也向中國團隊提供援助，其中很大一部分流向武漢。我們優先供應對抗病毒所需的關鍵產品，例如氧氣、醫療氣體。而且很明顯地，從業務角度我們一直非常密切地關注情勢。現場供氣（on-site）客戶目前還沒有顯示出太大影響，至少目前沒有。以散裝液體（merchant liquid）為例，在一般年份的農曆新年期間，散裝液體產能可能會降到約 30%。今年不是只看到 1 週，而是看到 2 週，之後正慢慢回升。而如 Matt 先前解釋的，我們已將此納入考量。

Certainly, based on what we know about the virus, we've accounted for that in our guidance. So that's the situation. Tough situation for the people there, but they're working through it.

確實，基於我們對病毒的了解，我們已在我們的財測指引（guidance）中把這些因素納入考量。所以情況就是如此。對那裡的人們來說是艱難的處境，但他們正在努力度過。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Vincent Andrews。

Just a question on backlog dynamics. I mean, Steve, you've talked about the slowing macroeconomic activity and I think in the past, we've talked about maybe a deceleration in sort of the urgency around project signing. So I'm just curious, are you seeing anything changing in terms of the opportunity set that's out there or the counterparties' desire to move forward?

想請教一下在手訂單（backlog）的動態。我是說，Steve，你談到宏觀經濟活動放緩，而且我想過去我們也談過，可能在專案簽約的緊迫性方面有些減速。所以我想了解的是，你們是否看到外部機會集合或交易對手推進意願方面有任何變化？

I would still characterize it as not a lot of hurry. People are not in a lot of hurry to get projects closed. The proposal rate on large projects is low. Most of what we're looking at is in the smaller range, say, $50 million, maybe up to $100 million, maybe a little bigger than that, but nothing over $250 million. I think that's just reflective of kind of where we are as an economy. But if I were to kind of try to look downstream in terms of what I think could happen with respect to the backlog, I believe that the U.S. Gulf Coast is still advantaged with low-cost natural gas that's still going to continue to attract, especially chemical customers. I think we could see some growth, more growth with hydrogen in places like the U.S. Gulf Coast, but not restricted to that. As a result of IMO 2020, some of the decarbonization projects that we're working on, again, some of them are fairly large, but it will be interesting to see how quickly they evolve and develop, but that could be additive to the backlog. And then I think you have to look at electronics, though it's been in a lull this past -- during the second half of 2019 and especially in the fourth quarter, I think the long-term trends are very positive.

我仍然會把它形容為不太急。大家並不急著把專案結案。大型專案的提案率偏低。我們目前看到的大多是在較小的區間，例如 5,000 萬美元，可能到 1 億美元，或許再大一點，但沒有超過 2.5 億美元的。我認為這只是反映了我們目前的經濟狀況。但如果我試著往下游看、就我認為在手訂單可能發生的情況而言，我相信美國墨西哥灣沿岸仍具優勢，因為低成本天然氣仍將持續吸引、特別是化工客戶。我認為我們可能會在像美國墨西哥灣沿岸這樣的地方看到氫能的成長，而且不僅限於那裡。由於 IMO 2020，以及我們正在進行的一些去碳化專案——其中有些規模相當大——接下來要看它們演進與發展的速度，但這可能會對在手訂單帶來增量。另外我認為也要看電子產業；雖然在 2019 年下半年、尤其第四季處於低迷，但我認為長期趨勢非常正面。

So this lower nanometer geometry, artificial intelligence, 5G, this EUD technology that Samsung and others have been adopting, and I think that will drive stronger electronics demand going forward and could result in increased adding projects to the backlog.

因此，更低奈米幾何、人工智慧、5G，以及三星與其他公司正在採用的這項 EUD 技術，我認為將推動未來更強勁的電子需求，並可能帶來更多專案加入在手訂單。

Okay. And just a follow-up on the CapEx for 2020. If my math's correct, it's down versus 2019, and I know part of the reduction is probably the synergies -- the CapEx synergies that you guided to, but maybe you could just bridge the '19 and '20 CapEx for us in terms of what the differential is?

好的。再追問一下 2020 年的資本支出（CapEx）。如果我算得沒錯，它相較 2019 年是下降的；我知道部分下降可能來自你們所指引的協同效益——CapEx 協同效益——但你們是否可以幫我們把 2019 與 2020 的 CapEx 串接一下，說明差異主要來自哪裡？

Yes, Vincent, it's Matt. You're absolutely right. If you break it down between the project and between the base CapEx, we absolutely are expecting probably 100, 200 kind of synergies that we would anticipate to see on a year-over-year basis. And realize, as stated, in that base, there are small growth projects like the 30 VPSAs that we had recently announced. So when we can get those, we'll take those all day long, so they can cause some quarterly number movement. But in the end of the day, we definitely anticipate some synergies in that line. As far as the project, frankly, the bigger that number is, the happier I am because that means we're ahead on our project schedule. So that one is pretty much just lockstep with our engineering project outlooks in terms of timing of construction. But those are, as you can imagine, very tightly managed on a project basis from our engineering team, and that's something that we'll just continue to build to our schedules.

是的，Vincent，我是 Matt。你說得完全正確。如果把它拆成專案 CapEx 與基礎 CapEx，我們確實預期年對年大概會看到 1 億到 2 億左右的協同效益。另外請注意，如同先前所說，在這個基礎項目裡也包含一些小型成長專案，例如我們最近宣布的 30 座 VPSA。所以只要能拿到這些，我們都很樂意承接，因此它們可能會造成季度數字的波動。但總的來說，我們確實預期在那一項會有一些協同效益。至於專案部分，坦白說，那個數字越大我越高興，因為那代表我們的專案進度超前。所以那一項基本上就是跟我們工程專案展望在施工時點上同步。但如你所想，這些在專案層級由我們工程團隊非常嚴格地管理，我們也會持續依照時程推進。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical 的 Kevin McCarthy。

A couple of questions, sticking with the project backlog. Steve, in your prepared remarks, I think you made a comment that you won practically every project that you chose to pursue. And so if activity remains sufficient, does that suggest that you may have upside to push the envelope and increase returns above the current rate of 11.6%?

有幾個問題，仍然聚焦在專案在手訂單。Steve，在你事先準備的發言中，我想你提到你們幾乎贏得了每一個你們選擇去追的專案。所以如果活動量仍然足夠，這是否意味著你們可能有上行空間，可以更積極一些，把報酬率推升到目前 11.6% 之上？

And then my second question is more specific on your engineering backlog. Looks like that increased $800 million or so sequentially. On Slide 14, you referenced the Amur project. Just wondering if you could comment on that project specifically? And what impact you would expect that to have on the helium market. And whether you can pull some more helium off of that yourselves?

第二個問題更具體，關於你們的工程在手訂單。看起來它環比增加了大約 8 億美元。在第 14 張投影片，你提到了 Amur 專案。想請你針對該專案做些評論？以及你預期它會對氦氣市場造成什麼影響。還有你們是否能從中再取得更多氦氣？

Yes. So all the projects that we're starting up are going to be accretive to return on capital. So it's 11.6%, I believe, that's the number that you're looking at. And of course, I'm looking at internal rate of return when I look at these projects, unlevered after-tax internal rate of return above the cost to capital. But after a few years, these projects are typically already accretive to ROC and then over time, they're definitely accretive to ROC.

是的。我們正在啟動的所有專案都會對資本報酬率（ROC）具增益性（accretive）。所以我相信你看的那個數字是 11.6%。當然，我看這些專案時會看內部報酬率（IRR），也就是無槓桿、稅後的內部報酬率，高於資本成本。但通常在幾年之後，這些專案就已經對 ROC 具增益性，之後隨著時間推進，它們也會明顯提升 ROC。

So I would say that we look at just about every project. In fact, I always encourage my teams to bring all the projects forward, and we'll take a look at and we'll decide whether or not we think they're worth participating. But the criteria we use is pretty straightforward. It has to fit our strategy as a company, and it has to have a good return above cost to capital, as I described earlier. And we're going to maintain that twin criteria, but we do want to look at practically everything that's out there.

所以我會說，我們幾乎會看每一個專案。事實上，我總是鼓勵團隊把所有專案都帶上來，我們會檢視並決定是否值得參與。但我們使用的標準相當直接。它必須符合我們公司的策略，而且必須如我先前所說，具備高於資本成本的良好報酬。我們會維持這兩項標準，但我們確實希望幾乎把市場上所有機會都看一遍。

With respect to the Linde Engineering, yes, the backlog numbers are up for sure. The Amur project is not related to helium. The Amur project is a mixed feed cracker for Sibur and so that's not related to what you're thinking about. But there is -- there are natural gas plants for Gazprom that are being built and starting up that will be -- we'll have helium online, I would say, the second half of next year is when you would start to see the impact from them.

至於 Linde Engineering，是的，在手訂單數字確實上升。Amur 專案與氦氣無關。Amur 專案是為 Sibur 建造的混合原料裂解裝置（mixed feed cracker），所以與你所想的並不相關。但另外有——有一些為 Gazprom 建造、正在建設並啟動的天然氣工廠，將會——我會說在明年下半年會有氦氣上線，屆時你就會開始看到它們帶來的影響。

Our next question comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John McNulty。

With regard to the base CapEx, what portion of that is actually tied to revenue-generating projects versus kind of the more normal maintenance or efficiency type projects?

關於基礎 CapEx，其中有多少比例實際上是與創收專案相關，而不是較一般的維護或效率提升類型的專案？

John, this is Matt. That's not a number we disclose. But I can tell you, it's a meaningful part of that number, and it's something we evaluate. But as you can imagine, when you get into things like transportation, cylinder, storage equipment, tanks, it gets a very fine line, what is growth, what is replacement. So this is something internally we spend a lot of time on, but it's just not a number externally that we disclose. But I can tell you, unlike VPSAs and those type of plants that we've announced, they are under $5 million a spend, but they're in the upper end. So they're $4 million to $5 million, sometimes they could be a little lower. So those would be included in this number as well.

John，我是 Matt。這不是我們會揭露的數字。但我可以告訴你，那個數字中有相當有意義的一部分，我們也會評估。但如你所想，當你談到運輸、鋼瓶、儲存設備、槽罐等項目時，成長與汰換之間的界線會變得非常細。所以這是我們內部花很多時間在做的事情，但對外我們不揭露這個數字。不過我可以告訴你，不同於我們宣布的 VPSA 以及那類工廠，它們單筆支出低於 500 萬美元，但接近上緣。所以大約是 400 萬到 500 萬美元，有時也可能更低一些。因此這些也會包含在這個數字之內。

Got it. And I guess, when you think about the returns on those projects versus kind of the more base or the more kind of big project pipeline, how do the returns compare?

了解。我想，當你比較那些專案的報酬率與較基礎、或較大型的專案管線時，兩者的報酬率相比如何？

Well, they're very solid. The configuration of a typical small on-site project is, it's 100% facility fee. So -- and they're easy to construct. So I've always liked these small on-site projects. I'm excited about the capability that we now have between the 2 companies. We have every offering covered now in small on-site, and it's something that we're very much focused on as a company, very strong, 100% kind of take-or-pay commercial contracts. They are easier to construct, much simpler configuration. So all you have to do really is select the right customer.

嗯，它們非常穩健。典型的小型現場專案配置是，100%是設施費。所以——而且它們很容易建造。所以我一直很喜歡這些小型現場專案。我對我們現在兩家公司之間具備的能力感到興奮。我們現在在小型現場的各項產品/服務供給都已涵蓋，這也是我們公司非常聚焦的方向：非常強、100%類似「照付不議（take-or-pay）」的商業合約。它們更容易施工，配置也簡單得多。所以你真正要做的就是選對客戶。

Our next question comes from Martin Roediger with Kepler.

下一個問題來自 Kepler 的 Martin Roediger。

Actually, 2 minor questions only. Some of your competitors do portfolio shaping, means disposing noncore activities. Is that a topic also, which is on your agenda, i.e., I refer to voice on the logistics company GIST, that's my first question.

其實只有兩個小問題。你們的一些競爭對手在做投資組合調整，也就是處分非核心業務。這是否也是你們議程上的議題？也就是說，我指的是物流公司 GIST 的傳聞，這是我的第一個問題。

Martin, I'd prefer not to get into specifics about which companies that we're looking at divesting. And you will -- I just -- all I'm going to say is really we're pretty active as we look at businesses and geographies that we don't think belong in our portfolio long term from a strategic standpoint. And you'll hear more about that as the year progresses.

Martin，我比較不想談我們正在考慮剝離哪些公司的具體細節。你會——我只想說的是，從策略角度來看，對於我們認為長期不應留在投資組合中的業務與地理區域，我們在檢視上其實相當積極。隨著今年進展，你會聽到更多相關訊息。

And the second question is on the sustainability topics. Can you help us to understand how much short you are in terms of certificates when it comes to the European trading scheme? And do you think your actions to reduce the greenhouse gas intensity will help you to be better prepared for the Phase IV in the European trading scheme, i.e., that you are not short anymore in emission certificates?

第二個問題是關於永續議題。你能否協助我們了解，在歐盟排放交易制度（ETS）下，你們在排放憑證方面短缺多少？以及你是否認為，你們降低溫室氣體排放強度的行動，將有助於你們更好地為歐盟排放交易制度第四期（Phase IV）做準備，也就是不再短缺排放憑證？

Well, I don't know exactly how the trading scheme is going to work at this point. I believe that these are management targets. So we decided as a team, these are things that we wanted to go after. As I said earlier, renewable power has a lot to do. The availability of renewable power has a lot to do with what our emissions profile ultimately looks like. And the sooner the world converts to renewable, the much better off we will be. We're going to be very active in terms of going out and contracting for renewable power. And that's how you're able to increase purchases from $1 billion to $2 billion.

嗯，我目前並不確定這個交易制度究竟會如何運作。我相信這些是管理目標。所以我們團隊決定，這些是我們想要努力達成的事情。如我先前所說，再生能源電力有很大關聯。再生能源電力的可取得性，與我們最終的排放輪廓會長什麼樣子有很大關係。而世界越早轉向再生能源，我們的處境就會好得多。我們會非常積極地對外簽訂再生能源電力合約。這也是你能把採購額從10億美元提高到20億美元的方式。

But as far as reaching carbon neutrality at some point in the future, there are other things that would need to happen beyond 100% renewable power, we would need, I think, a very strong carbon tax around the world. We need advancements in technology. All things that can be achieved, but they just take a longer time frame.

但就未來某個時間點達成碳中和而言，除了100%再生能源電力之外，還需要發生其他事情；我認為全球需要非常強而有力的碳稅。我們也需要技術進步。這些都能做到，但只是需要更長的時間。

And our final question comes from Mike Harrison with Seaport Global Securities.

最後一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Mike Harrison。

Steve, you noted some slowing in electronics markets in Asia, I think that a number of players in the semiconductor space are encouraged that we're starting to see a recovery. So can you just talk about what you were seeing kind of in the second half and particularly in Q4 and maybe comment on your outlook for 2020 in electronics?

Steve，你提到亞洲電子市場有些放緩；我想半導體領域有不少業者對於我們開始看到復甦感到鼓舞。你能談談你在下半年、特別是第四季（Q4）看到的情況，並且也許評論一下你對2020年電子市場的展望嗎？

Yes. So as you know, there are big inventory builds and memory chips, prices dropped precipitously. Samsung did not have best quarter they've ever had when they announced here recently. So that is what's -- that's really been in the news, I think, the last several quarters in 2019. Most people think that it will be better, that this bottom is that it's going to improve in 2020, and it's going to improve based on a lot of the trends that I mentioned earlier. So I don't have a number for you, but I think it should be better in 2020. And certainly, when we start up some of these big projects, that will be quite additive.

是的。如你所知，記憶體晶片出現了大量庫存堆積，價格大幅下跌。Samsung 最近在這裡公布時，那一季並不是他們史上表現最好的一季。所以我想，這就是——這確實是2019年過去幾個季度新聞焦點所在。大多數人認為情況會好轉，這個谷底將在2020年改善，而且會基於我先前提到的許多趨勢而改善。所以我沒有一個具體數字給你，但我認為2020年應該會更好。而且當我們啟動其中一些大型專案時，將會帶來相當可觀的增量貢獻。

And then I wanted to also ask you about the Americas. You commented that manufacturing and metals end markets were weaker. Talk about what you're seeing in hard goods versus packaged gases? And also maybe comment on the new trade agreements that are in place. Any sense that those could have some positive impact on manufacturing and metals in the U.S. during 2020?

另外我也想問一下美洲地區。你提到製造業與金屬終端市場較疲弱。能談談你在耐久財（hard goods）相較於包裝氣體（packaged gases）方面看到的情況嗎？也請你評論一下目前已生效的新貿易協定。你是否覺得這些協定可能在2020年對美國的製造業與金屬產業帶來一些正面影響？

Yes. So hard goods, year-over-year is down double digits. Gas is flat. Hard goods sequentially, Q3 to Q4, is down high single digits, whereas gas is flat. So clearly, hard goods is feeling the effect. Gas not nearly so much so. Looking forward to the year with respect to trade agreements, I think, to the extent that we supply large capital equipment, export companies that will have some positive effect. I quite frankly don't think it's going to be a huge number, but it could have some positive effects.

是的。所以耐久財年對年下滑達雙位數。氣體則持平。耐久財在序列上，從第三季到第四季，下滑高個位數百分比，而氣體仍持平。所以很明顯，耐久財正在感受到影響。氣體受到的影響則沒有那麼大。展望今年、就貿易協定而言，我認為在我們供應大型資本設備、以及出口型公司這一塊，會有一些正面效果。坦白說，我不認為會是很大的數字，但可能會帶來一些正面影響。

And just, Mike, this is Matt. As a reminder, we have a very strong Canadian and Mexican franchise as well. So I think regardless of which side of the border and where that goes, we feel quite confident in our ability to capture the business.

另外，Mike，我是 Matt。提醒一下，我們在加拿大與墨西哥也有非常強的業務版圖。所以我認為不論邊境哪一側、以及情勢如何發展，我們對於掌握這些業務的能力都相當有信心。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。