Lennox International Inc (LII) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Welcome to the Lennox second-quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

歡迎參加 Lennox 第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，此通話正在被錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Chelsey Pulcheon from Lennox, Investor Relations. Chelsey, please go ahead.

現在我想將電話轉給 Lennox 投資者關係部門的 Chelsey Pulcheon。切爾西，請繼續。

Thank you, Margo. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us as we share our 2025 second quarter results. Joining me today is CEO, Alok Maskara; and CFO, Michael Quenzer. Each will share their prepared remarks before we move into the Q&A session.

謝謝你，瑪戈。大家早安，感謝您加入我們，分享我們 2025 年第二季的業績。今天與我一起出席的是執行長 Alok Maskara 和財務長 Michael Quenzer。在進入問答環節之前，每個人都會分享他們準備好的發言。

Turning to slide 2. A reminder that during today's call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as outlined on this page. We may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that management considers relevant indicators of underlying business performance.

翻到幻燈片 2。提醒您，在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述將受到本頁概述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響。我們也可能參考管理階層認為與基礎業務績效相關的某些非 GAAP 財務指標。

Please refer to our SEC filings available on our Investor Relations website for additional details, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures. The earnings release, today's presentation and the webcast archive link for today's call are available on our Investor Relations website at investor.lennox.com.

請參閱我們投資者關係網站上提供的 SEC 文件以獲取更多詳細信息，包括 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的對帳。收益報告、今天的簡報和今天電話會議的網路廣播存檔連結可在我們的投資者關係網站 investor.lennox.com 上找到。

Now please turn to slide 3 as I turn the call over to our CEO, Alok Maskara.

現在請翻到投影片 3，我將把電話轉給我們的執行長 Alok Maskara。

Thank you, Chelsey. Good morning, everyone. Let me begin today's call by highlighting the impressive results we achieved in Q2. Results that reflect our team's strategic focus and resilience. In the face of a challenging external environment, both segments delivered revenue growth and margin expansion.

謝謝你，切爾西。大家早安。今天的電話會議首先讓我強調我們在第二季度取得的令人矚目的成就。結果反映了我們團隊的策略重點和韌性。面對充滿挑戰的外部環境，兩個部門都實現了收入成長和利潤率擴大。

This performance was fueled by our continued emphasis on cost discipline elevating the customer experience and enhancing our go-to-market differentiation. As we build on this momentum, I want to express my sincere gratitude to our employees for their dedication and to our loyal customers for their continued trust and partnership.

這項業績的成就得益於我們持續強調成本控制，提升了客戶體驗並增強了我們的市場差異化。在我們繼續保持這一勢頭之際，我要向我們員工的奉獻精神以及我們忠實客戶的持續信任和合作表示誠摯的感謝。

Let's turn to slide 3 for an overview of our second quarter financials. Revenue this quarter grew 3%. Our segment margin was a record 23.6%, an increase of 170 basis points. Operating cash flow was $87 million. Adjusted earnings per share in the second quarter was $7.82.

讓我們翻到投影片 3 來概覽一下我們第二季的財務狀況。本季營收成長3%。我們的分部利潤率達到創紀錄的23.6%，成長了170個基點。經營現金流為8700萬美元。第二季調整後每股收益為 7.82 美元。

Our team is performing well despite ongoing challenges including softness in new construction demand, industry refrigerant canister shortages, customer uncertainty and inflationary pressures. In HCS, profitability remains strong as we transition into selling primarily our R-454B products.

儘管面臨新建築需求疲軟、行業冷媒罐短缺、客戶不確定性和通膨壓力等挑戰，我們的團隊仍然表現良好。在 HCS，隨著我們轉型主要銷售 R-454B 產品，獲利能力依然強勁。

Destocking in Q2 was largely in line with expectations though we anticipate some spillover into Q3 as industry lead times continue to normalize. While residential new construction remains subdued, the HCS segment continues to perform well given the broader market conditions.

第二季的去庫存情況基本上符合預期，不過，隨著產業交貨時間持續正常化，我們預期第三季將出現一定程度的溢出效應。儘管住宅新建工程依然低迷，但鑑於更廣泛的市場狀況，HCS 部門繼續表現良好。

In BCS, factory productivity has improved, helping to mitigate inflationary pressures. Emergency replacement wins have partially offset end markets that have been weaker than we anticipated. In addition, growth from our full life cycle strategy has delivered year-over-year revenue growth and margin expansion.

在BCS，工廠生產率有所提高，有助於緩解通膨壓力。緊急替代品的勝利部分抵消了終端市場弱於我們預期的影響。此外，我們全生命週期策略的成長帶來了收入和利潤的逐年成長。

We are raising our full year outlook to reflect our consistent execution in a challenging environment and continued progress on our growth initiatives. We now expect adjusted earnings per share in the range of $23.25 to $24.25 and revenue growth of approximately 3%.

我們上調了全年預期，以反映我們在充滿挑戰的環境中始終如一的執行力以及成長計劃的持續進展。我們現在預計調整後的每股盈餘將在 23.25 美元至 24.25 美元之間，營收成長約為 3%。

Now let us move to slide 4 for a brief look at how we're expanding our portfolio and the value we bring to our customers through joint ventures with leading global partners. As we continue to execute our transformation plan, we are taking a deliberate approach to building long-term value through strategic partnerships that strengthen our heat pump portfolio and enhanced customer experience.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 4，簡要了解我們如何擴展我們的產品組合以及透過與全球領先的合作夥伴建立合資企業為我們的客戶帶來價值。在我們繼續執行轉型計劃的同時，我們正在採取謹慎的方法，透過策略合作夥伴關係來創造長期價值，從而加強我們的熱泵產品組合併增強客戶體驗。

Our joint ventures with Samsung and Arista are clear examples of strategy in action. These partnerships allow us to offer a broader range of products that our customers are already installing making it easier for them to do more business with us. With 75% of our dealers already selling mini splits, and 50% offering water heaters, these additions are a natural fit that will provide one-stop shopping convenience to all our customers.

我們與三星和 Arista 的合資企業就是策略執行的明顯例子。這些合作關係使我們能夠提供客戶已在安裝的更廣泛的產品，使他們更容易與我們開展更多業務。我們的經銷商中 75% 已經在銷售迷你分離式空調，50% 的經銷商已經在銷售熱水器，因此新增這些產品是自然而然的事情，可以為所有客戶提供一站式購物的便利。

These joint ventures position us well for future growth. Samsung brings advanced technology, smart things integration and strong brand recognition that will enhance our portfolio in both HCS and BCS through ductless mini splits, and VRF products.

這些合資企業為我們未來的發展奠定了良好的基礎。三星帶來了先進的技術、智慧整合和強大的品牌認知度，這將透過無管道迷你分離式和 VRF 產品增強我們在 HCS 和 BCS 領域的產品組合。

Arista contributes deep expertise in global heat pump water heating and our North American joint venture strengthens the position of both companies during the ongoing convergence of HVAC and water heating trades. These partnerships align with the growth acceleration phase of our transformation strategy and established the foundation for the expansion phase. We expect Samsung to begin contributing meaningfully to growth in 2026, followed by Arista in 2027.

Arista 在全球熱泵熱水領域擁有深厚的專業知識，而我們的北美合資企業則在暖通空調和熱水行業持續融合的過程中鞏固了兩家公司的地位。這些合作關係與我們轉型策略的成長加速階段一致，並為擴張階段奠定了基礎。我們預計三星將在 2026 年開始為成長做出有意義的貢獻，Arista 將在 2027 年開始為成長做出貢獻。

Now let me hand over the call to Michael, who will take us through the details of the Q2 financial results.

現在，我將把電話交給邁克爾，他將向我們介紹第二季財務業績的詳細資訊。

Thank you, Alok. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 5. As Alok outlined, in the second quarter, we operated in a challenging environment shaped by persistent inflationary pressures, industry-wide destocking of R-410A equipment and a continued transition to the low GWP R-454B products. Despite these dynamics, our team delivered record results with a 3% increase in revenue and 11% growth in segment profit.

謝謝你，阿洛克。大家早安。請翻到投影片 5。正如阿洛克所概述的，在第二季度，我們面臨著一個充滿挑戰的經營環境，包括持續的通膨壓力、全行業 R-410A 設備去庫存以及向低 GWP R-454B 產品的持續過渡。儘管有這些動態，我們的團隊仍然取得了創紀錄的業績，收入成長了 3%，部門利潤成長了 11%。

A key driver of this performance was the successful introduction of our new low GWP 454B products. These enhanced products will replace approximately 70% of our Home Comfort Solutions product portfolio and 40% of our Building Climate Solutions portfolio.

這一業績表現的關鍵驅動因素是我們成功推出了新的低 GWP 454B 產品。這些增強型產品將取代我們居家舒適解決方案產品組合的約 70% 和建築氣候解決方案產品組合的 40%。

During the quarter, approximately 90% of our refrigerant based product sales contained a new R-454B refrigerant, driving favorable product mix and contributing meaningfully to both top line and profit growth.

本季度，我們約 90% 的冷媒產品銷售包含新型 R-454B 冷媒，推動了有利的產品組合，並對營業額和利潤成長做出了重大貢獻。

Let's now turn to slide 6 to review the performance of our Home Comfort Solutions segment. Home Comfort Solutions delivered strong financial results this quarter despite softness in sales volumes. Revenue increased 3%, driven by favorable product mix and pricing, which rose by 12% as these initiatives reached full effectiveness.

現在讓我們翻到第 6 張投影片來回顧我們的居家舒適解決方案部門的表現。儘管銷售量疲軟，但家居舒適解決方案本季仍取得了強勁的財務業績。由於這些措施充分發揮效力，產品組合和定價有利，收入成長了 12%，推動收入成長了 3%。

As anticipated, sales volumes declined mainly because contractors and distributors are still selling through their 410A inventory. This slowdown was also influenced by continued softness in residential new construction and industry-wide shortages of R-454B canisters, which are required for many new system installations. These shortages may have led to an increase in system repairs instead.

正如預期的那樣，銷售量下降主要是因為承包商和分銷商仍在透過其 410A 庫存銷售。這種放緩也受到住宅新建工程持續疲軟以及整個行業 R-454B 罐短缺的影響，而許多新系統安裝都需要 R-454B 罐。這些短缺可能反而導致系統維修的增加。

On the cost side, inflationary pressures on materials and components persisted. However, we successfully offset part of these impacts through effective tariff mitigation and improved factory productivity. Distribution costs were higher this period due to ongoing investments in expanding and strengthening our network.

成本方面，材料和零件的通膨壓力持續存在。然而，我們透過有效的關稅減免和提高工廠生產力成功抵消了部分影響。由於我們持續投資擴大和加強網絡，本期分銷成本較高。

These investments are part of our long-term growth strategy aimed at improving customer fulfillment rates, broadening product availability, and making it easier for customers to access the solutions they need when they need it. By enhancing our distribution capabilities, we are working to deliver a more seamless and responsive customer experience.

這些投資是我們長期成長策略的一部分，旨在提高客戶履行率、擴大產品供應範圍，並使客戶在需要時更容易獲得所需的解決方案。透過增強我們的分銷能力，我們致力於提供更無縫、反應更快的客戶體驗。

Moving on to slide 7. After a slow start to the year, the Building Climate Solutions segment delivered a strong rebound in the second quarter as customers regain confidence since Q1. The segment achieved a 5% increase in revenue, driven by an 8% benefit from favorable product mix and pricing, which more than offset volume declines.

移至幻燈片 7。在經歷了年初的緩慢發展之後，隨著客戶自第一季以來恢復信心，建築氣候解決方案部門在第二季度實現了強勁反彈。該部門收入成長了 5%，這得益於有利的產品組合和定價帶來了 8% 的收益，足以抵消銷售量的下降。

Light commercial HVAC, which accounts for approximately 50% of BCS revenue, continue to face pressure from soft end market demand, with industry shipment volumes down double digits. However, our segment sales volumes declined just 3%, supported by growth in emergency replacement products and continued strength in our refrigeration and service offerings.

佔BCS收入約50%的輕型商用HVAC持續面臨軟端市場需求的壓力，產業出貨量下降了兩位數。然而，由於緊急替代產品的成長以及冷凍和服務產品的持續強勁，我們的部門銷售量僅下降了 3%。

On the cost side, material inflation remained elevated Encouragingly, for the first time in several quarters, we delivered year-over-year factory productivity gains as the ramp-up of our new facility nears completion.

在成本方面，材料通膨仍然居高不下，令人鼓舞的是，隨著新工廠的擴建接近尾聲，我們幾個季度以來首次實現了工廠生產率同比增長。

Turning to slide 8. Let's review cash flow and capital deployment. From a free cash flow perspective, we remain on track to achieve our full year guidance of $650 million to $800 million. While we made temporary inventory investments to support a smooth transition to the new R-454B products, we expect inventory levels to normalize in the second half of the year.

翻到第 8 張投影片。讓我們回顧一下現金流和資本配置。從自由現金流的角度來看，我們仍有望實現全年 6.5 億至 8 億美元的目標。雖然我們進行了臨時庫存投資以支援向新的 R-454B 產品的平穩過渡，但我們預計庫存水準將在下半年恢復正常。

We're also strategically investing in the inventory to strengthen our position in the commercial emergency replacement segment and to support the launch of our new Samsung ductless product line.

我們還對庫存進行了策略性投資，以加強我們在商業緊急更換領域的地位，並支持推出新的三星無管道產品線。

On capital deployment, we have repurchased $300 million in shares year-to-date. In the second quarter, we also received authorization for an additional $1 billion in future share repurchases. Reflecting our strong earnings and cash flow outlook, we increased our quarterly dividend by approximately 15% in May.

在資本配置方面，今年迄今我們已經回購了價值 3 億美元的股票。在第二季度，我們也獲得了額外 10 億美元未來股票回購的授權。鑑於我們強勁的獲利和現金流前景，我們在 5 月將季度股息提高了約 15%。

Lastly, we continue to take a disciplined approach to M&A, actively evaluating attractive bolt-on opportunities that enhance our distribution capabilities, expand our product portfolio and integrate smart technologies.

最後，我們繼續採取嚴謹的併購方式，積極評估有吸引力的附加機會，以增強我們的分銷能力，擴大我們的產品組合併整合智慧技術。

If you will now turn to slide 9, I'll review our full year 2025 guidance. Let me walk you through the updates to our 2025 financial guidance, which reflect a strong first half and improved visibility into the second half of the year. Based on our performance so far and the momentum we're seeing, we are raising both our revenue and EPS guidance. This speaks to the strength of our execution and the confidence we have in our outlook.

如果您現在翻到投影片 9，我將回顧我們 2025 年全年的指導。讓我向您介紹我們 2025 年財務指導的更新，該更新反映了上半年的強勁表現和下半年可預見性的提高。根據我們迄今為止的表現和我們看到的勢頭，我們提高了收入和每股收益預期。這體現了我們的執行力和對前景的信心。

Starting with revenue. We now expect full year revenue to grow by 3%, up from our previous guidance of 2%. This modest improvement reflects a slightly more optimistic view on sales volumes, which are now projected to decline 6% compared to our prior estimate of down 9%. This includes the impact of pre-buy and temporary share gain.

從收入開始。我們現在預計全年營收將成長 3%，高於先前預測的 2%。這種溫和的改善反映了對銷售量的稍微樂觀的看法，目前預計銷售量將下降 6%，而我們先前估計的是下降 9%。這包括預購和暫時股價上漲的影響。

On mix and pricing, we now expect a combined benefit of 9%, slightly below our previous estimate of 11%. This adjustment reflects lower-than-anticipated material tariff inflation. As noted in Q1, our pricing strategy is designed to flex with input cost trends, which have moderated. In line with this, we now expect cost inflation to increase the total cost by 6%, down from our prior estimate of 9%. This improvement is primarily driven by successful tariff mitigation efforts.

在產品組合和定價方面，我們目前預期綜合收益為 9%，略低於我們先前估計的 11%。這項調整反映了低於預期的材料關稅通膨。正如第一季所指出的，我們的定價策略旨在隨著投入成本趨勢而靈活調整，而投入成本趨勢已經有所緩和。與此一致，我們現在預計成本通膨將使總成本增加 6%，低於我們先前估計的 9%。這項改善主要得益於成功的關稅減免措施。

Looking at other key items, we now expect interest expense to be approximately $30 million and our tax rate to fall between 19% and 20%.

從其他關鍵項目來看，我們現在預計利息支出約為 3,000 萬美元，稅率將在 19% 至 20% 之間。

And finally, on earnings, we are raising our EPS guidance to a range of $23.25 to $24.25, up from our previous range of $22.25 to $23.50. Overall, these updates reflect strong execution across the business and confidence in our ability to deliver on our commitments for the remainder of the year.

最後，關於獲利，我們將每股盈餘預期上調至23.25美元至24.25美元，高於先前的22.25美元至23.50美元。總體而言，這些更新反映了整個業務的強勁執行力，以及對我們在今年剩餘時間內履行承諾能力的信心。

With that, please turn to slide 10, and I'll turn it back over to Alok.

說完這些，請翻到第 10 張投影片，然後我會交還給 Alok。

Thanks, Michael. Let me take a moment to provide a view of how we are positioned for growth and how we see the market evolving across both of our segments. The smooth transition to a low GWP refrigerant maintained our exceptional track record and deepened trust with our customers.

謝謝，麥可。請容許我花一點時間來介紹我們如何定位成長以及我們如何看待兩個領域的市場發展。順利過渡到低 GWP 冷媒，保持了我們卓越的業績記錄，並加深了客戶的信任。

We are now selling mostly R-454B product with limited R-410A remaining in the channel. While the transition was well executed by Lennox, dealer confidence has been impacted by concerns around R-454B canister availability.

我們現在主要銷售 R-454B 產品，通路中剩餘少量 R-410A。儘管 Lennox 很好地執行了這一過渡，但經銷商信心因對 R-454B 罐供應的擔憂而受到影響。

This may have led to a partial reversal of last year's temporary share gain. We are beginning to see that more homeowners are choosing repair versus replace and trading down as inflation and government incentives continue to influence some consumer behavior. While the broader environment remains challenging, our internal momentum continues to accelerate.

這可能導致去年暫時的股價上漲被部分逆轉。我們開始看到，隨著通貨膨脹和政府激勵措施繼續影響一些消費者行為，越來越多的房主選擇維修而不是更換，並降低消費水準。儘管整體環境依然充滿挑戰，但我們的內在動力卻不斷加速。

Equipment inventories in the channel are moving towards more typical levels and the availability of R-454B canisters is expected to continue improving. This will enhance our ability to support dealers and meet customer demand in a timely manner.

渠道中的設備庫存正在向更典型的水平發展，預計 R-454B 罐的供應量將繼續提高。這將增強我們支援經銷商和及時滿足客戶需求的能力。

In a Building Climate Solutions segment, we are beginning to see early signs of demand stabilization following prolonged industry softness. Additionally, our strategic investments are generating positive results. Order rates and backlog remain healthy, given steady replacement demand as aging systems approach end of life.

在建築氣候解決方案領域，我們開始看到產業長期疲軟之後需求趨於穩定的早期跡象。此外，我們的策略投資正在產生積極成果。隨著老化系統接近使用壽命，更換需求穩定，訂單率和積壓訂單保持健康。

Our operational execution has been strong, and we now have the necessary capacity to meet demand. Margins have sequentially recovered as factory productivity improved which helped offset inflationary pressures on materials and components.

我們的營運執行力很強，現在我們擁有滿足需求的必要能力。隨著工廠生產率的提高，利潤率也隨之回升，有助於抵銷材料和零件的通膨壓力。

Demand is also increasing for comprehensive RTU life cycle solutions as national account customers are placing greater value on partners who can support them across the entire value chain, from equipment and installation to service and long-term preventative maintenance.

隨著全國客戶越來越重視能夠在整個價值鏈（從設備和安裝到服務和長期預防性維護）中為他們提供支援的合作夥伴，對綜合 RTU 生命週期解決方案的需求也在增加。

Our ability to deliver across this spectrum sets us apart. We're also seeing growing traction in emergency replacement, where our brand quality, availability and responsiveness have proven to be a success. Looking ahead, we see opportunities to expand our product and service portfolio through growth initiatives that strengthen our ability to serve customers and deepen our relationships.

我們在這一領域的交付能力使我們脫穎而出。我們也看到緊急更換領域的吸引力日益增強，我們的品牌品質、可用性和應變能力已被證明是成功的。展望未來，我們看到了透過成長計畫擴大我們的產品和服務組合的機會，這些計畫可以增強我們服務客戶的能力並加深我們的關係。

Now let's turn to slide 11 and while Lennox continues to be well positioned for sustained growth and margin expansion. We remain focused on executing the Lennox transformation strategy introduced in 2022 and advancing into our next phase of strategic expansion.

現在讓我們翻到第 11 張投影片，Lennox 繼續保持良好的地位，以實現持續成長和利潤率擴張。我們將繼續專注於執行 2022 年推出的 Lennox 轉型策略，並進入下一階段的策略擴張。

Our growth is supported by a steady replacement demand and targeted initiatives across digital customer experience, ductless technology, commercial capacity and parts and services. We continue to expand resilient margins through productivity and pricing excellence while investing in distribution to further enhance customer experience and availability. We are also scaling digital capabilities across products and customer interactions while leveraging proprietary data and expanding our intelligent product lineups.

穩定的替換需求以及數位客戶體驗、無管道技術、商業容量以及零件和服務方面的有針對性的舉措支持了我們的成長。我們繼續透過提高生產力和定價優勢來擴大彈性利潤率，同時投資分銷以進一步提高客戶體驗和可用性。我們還在利用專有數據和擴展智慧產品陣容的同時，擴展產品和客戶互動的數位化能力。

All of this is powered by a high-performing team and a culture grounded in accountability and results. I'm confident in our strategy encouraged by our progress and focused on delivering value for our customers, our employees and our shareholders. As I look forward, our best days are ahead of us. Thank you.

所有這一切都由一支高效的團隊和以責任和成果為基礎的文化所推動。我對我們的策略充滿信心，我們的進步激勵著我們，並致力於為我們的客戶、員工和股東創造價值。當我展望未來時，我們最好的日子就在前方。謝謝。

We will be happy to answer your questions now. Margo, let's go to Q&A.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。瑪戈，我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Jeff Hammond，KeyBanc 資本市場。

So the gap between price and cost was pretty stunning and obviously showed through in the margin. I'm just wondering what you're seeing with the A2L manufacturing cost, given that there are some added costs related to that equipment?

因此，價格和成本之間的差距相當驚人，並且明顯體現在利潤上。我只是想知道，考慮到與該設備相關的一些額外成本，您對 A2L 製造成本的看法如何？

And then tariffs if they can't really showed up or came into 2Q? Or do they step up into the second half? Just trying to understand that price cost gap better as we go forward.

那麼如果關稅真的沒有出現或進入第二季度，會怎麼樣呢？或者他們會在下半場有所進步？我們只是想在前進的過程中更好地理解價格成本差距。

Sure. So on the A2L conversion, both our cost and price are very close to our expectations and our previous communication, Jeff. So there's been no change as what we have been able to do is get more factory productivity, and we have done significant head count retrenchment as we finally were able to get out of some of the factory inefficiencies that came into play during the A2L conversion. So I think as expected and mostly driven by productivity, not price in that case, both price and mix were as expected, and it's holding just fine.

當然。因此，在 A2L 轉換方面，我們的成本和價格都非常接近我們的預期和我們之前的溝通，傑夫。因此，沒有什麼變化，因為我們能夠做的就是提高工廠生產力，並且我們已經進行了大規模裁員，因為我們最終能夠擺脫 A2L 轉換期間出現的一些工廠效率低下的問題。因此我認為，正如預期的那樣，主要是由生產力而不是價格驅動的，價格和組合都符合預期，並且保持得很好。

And Jeff, your question on tariffs. In the second half, we do have tariffs increasing a little bit in the second half, but that's all built in the guide. Both businesses are still reflecting margin expansion in the second half of the year, demonstrating our good parts cost excellence.

傑夫，你的問題是關於關稅的。在下半年，我們的關稅確實會略有增加，但這一切都已包含在指南中。這兩項業務在下半年仍反映出利潤率的擴大，反映了我們零件成本優勢。

Okay. And then can you walk through kind of what your volume assumptions are for the second half? Looks like you bumped it up a little bit or it's less bad in HCS. And then should we expect price mix to be similar to 2Q in the second half as it was in 2Q?

好的。然後能否介紹一下下半年的銷售假設是什麼？看起來你把它稍微提高了一點，或者在 HCS 中它沒那麼糟糕。那麼，我們是否應該預期下半年的價格組合與第二季相似？

Implied in the guidance for the HCS segment is the balance of the year volumes, including the destock and just overall volumes are down about 8%. That compares to about down 6% year-to-date, so a little bit more decline in the second half than the first half.

HCS 部門的指引暗示，包括去庫存在內的全年交易量和總體交易量將下降約 8%。相比之下，今年迄今的降幅約為 6%，因此下半年的降幅比上半年略大。

And then on price-mix, it implies about up 10% in the second half, in line with where we saw the first half. And the BCS, down volumes in the second half of about 4% compared to down 6% year-to-date. In the balance of the year, price mix, similar to what we saw in the first half, it up 6% -- 6% or 7%.

從價格組合來看，這意味著下半年將上漲約 10%，與上半年的情況一致。BCS 下半年交易量下降約 4%，而今年迄今則下降了 6%。在今年的平衡中，價格組合與我們在上半年看到的類似，上漲了 6% - 6% 或 7%。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Just wanted to circle back to the margin outlook there for a second. Just wanted to confirm the sort of full year EPS guide. Is that embedding kind of 50 bps, 60 bps of operating margin expansion, that type of rate. And when we're thinking about kind of third versus fourth quarter, anything to call out there in terms of moving parts, maybe as kind of the tariff effect comes in for that 6% cost inflation number? Any more color around that, please?

我只是想暫時回到利潤前景這個問題。只是想確認全年每股盈餘指南。這是否是嵌入 50 個基點、60 個基點的營業利潤率擴張，這種利率？當我們考慮第三季與第四季的情況時，在變動因素方面有什麼需要注意的嗎，也許是關稅效應對 6% 的成本通膨數字產生了影響？請問周圍還有其他顏色嗎？

Yes, Julian, that's correct. For the full year, we're projecting about a 50 basis points expansion in margins. We had about 50 points in the first half, another 50 points in the second half. For full year, HCS will be up a little bit more than the 50 basis points and the BCS will be closer to flat with the volume reduction that we just took, but both businesses will show margin expansion in the second half, a little bit more margin expansion in BCS as that factory productivity kicks in.

是的，朱利安，沒錯。我們預計全年利潤率將成長約 50 個基點。我們上半場得了大約50分，下半場又得了50分。就全年而言，HCS 將略高於 50 個基點，而 BCS 將與我們剛剛採取的減量措施持平，但隨著工廠生產力的提高，這兩項業務的利潤率將在下半年擴大，BCS 的利潤率將進一步擴大。

And Julian, I think there's lots of moving pieces here. But overall, this is consistent with our journey as we are looking to make margins both as a manufacturer and distributor. And if you just go back three years, we can see that our margins in Q2 have expanded 680 basis points over the past three years. So we don't think of this current margin expansion of anything, but just part of our overall trajectory to earn margins both as a manufacturer and a distributor.

朱利安，我認為這裡有很多可移動的部分。但總體而言，這與我們的歷程一致，因為我們希望作為製造商和分銷商都能夠賺取利潤。如果回顧三年前，我們可以看到，過去三年中，我們第二季的利潤率擴大了 680 個基點。因此，我們並不認為當前的利潤率擴張有什麼意義，而只是我們作為製造商和分銷商賺取利潤的整體軌蹟的一部分。

That's helpful. And just to follow up on that. So I understand the sort of margin increase, first half, second half year-on-year is a pretty similar delta. But I suppose the sort of first versus second quarter was quite a big difference.

這很有幫助。只是為了跟進這一點。因此，我了解利潤率的成長情況，上半年和下半年的年增幅相當相似。但我認為第一季和第二季的情況差異很大。

And just trying to understand, would you argue that the second quarter represents a more natural performance given where we are in the A2L cycle and plant productivity, whereas Q1, you're obviously dragged down by the early phase of A2L plus the Mexican plant issues?

只是想了解一下，您是否認為考慮到我們所處的 A2L 週期和工廠生產力，第二季度的表現更為自然，而第一季度，您顯然受到了 A2L 早期階段以及墨西哥工廠問題的拖累？

Yes. I think you're right, Julian. Q1 was changed by significant inefficiencies in our manufacturing, both as we transition our BCS factories into A2L products, we obviously had an air pocket that we talked about, both from sales and production perspective. And yes, overall, like in Q2, we saw a mix shift more towards 454 versus 410A. So just Q1 inefficiencies and then more normal mix for the year.

是的。我認為你是對的，朱利安。由於我們的製造效率嚴重低下，第一季發生了變化，當我們將 BCS 工廠轉變為 A2L 產品時，我們顯然從銷售和生產的角度談到了氣泡。是的，總體而言，就像在第二季度一樣，我們看到混合轉向 454 而不是 410A。因此，第一季的效率較低，而全年的組合則更加正常。

What makes us confident that Q2 is a better gauge of our margin versus what abnormal Q1 margins look like.

是什麼讓我們有信心，與第一季的異常利潤率相比，第二季的利潤率更能衡量我們的利潤率？

And Michael, I don't know if you mentioned sort of anything on Q3 versus Q4? Maybe I missed it.

邁克爾，我不知道您是否提到了 Q3 與 Q4 之間的任何區別？也許我錯過了。

We don't give the quarterly guidance. What I will say is the second half, you will have more of that comp issue in the fourth quarter as we had $125 million in the second half of last year for prebuy and temporary share gains. So that will weigh a little bit more in the fourth quarter.

我們不提供季度指引。我想說的是，下半年，您將在第四季度看到更多類似的問題，因為去年下半年我們有 1.25 億美元用於預購和臨時股票收益。因此，這在第四季會起到更大的作用。

Damian Karas, UBS.

瑞銀的 Damian Karas。

I actually wanted to ask you about the Arista partnership, obviously, interesting move to get involved in water heaters. Alok, could you maybe share some of the early feedback you've gotten from your dealers on the water heater business? And what's a reasonable expectation for the pace that you could start to see some of those sales showing up in your results?

我實際上想問您關於 Arista 合作關係的問題，顯然，涉足熱水器領域是一個有趣的舉措。Alok，您能否分享一些您從經銷商那裡得到的關於熱水器業務的早期回饋？您能以什麼樣的速度開始看到部分銷售額體現在您的業績上呢？合理的預期是什麼？

Sure. Great questions. Early feedback from our dealer and overall from our channel has been very positive. As we mentioned in our script, 50% of our current dealers or contractors are already selling water heaters. So for them to be able to buy from us would significantly change the kind of logistics hurdles that they have to go through. We can consolidate shipments.

當然。很好的問題。我們的經銷商和通路的整體早期回饋都非常積極。正如我們在腳本中提到的，我們現有的 50% 經銷商或承包商已經在銷售熱水器。因此，如果他們能夠從我們這裡購買產品，那麼他們必須經歷的物流障礙就會大大改變。我們可以合併裝運。

And more of our tech advanced dealers are excited about the fact that we can integrate the controls, and they can provide a common service option. So they're going twice a year to change filters. They can also flush the water heaters while they are going there. So the dealer reaction has been very positive.

我們越來越多的技術先進的經銷商對我們能夠整合控制並提供通用服務選項這一事實感到興奮。所以他們每年要更換兩次過濾器。他們也可以順便沖洗一下熱水器。因此經銷商的反應非常積極。

We're going to launch the product in kind of Q1 next year, which means from a practical perspective, we will see meaningful growth starting in 2027. So I think '26 is going to be more of a launch year, and we'll work through all the launch pieces.

我們將在明年第一季推出該產品，從實際角度來看，我們將從 2027 年開始看到有意義的成長。所以我認為 26 年將更像是一個發布年，我們將完成所有的發布工作。

At this stage, it's kind of early to give you numbers. But I think over the long term, we see this convergence between the two continue to play out and positions us really well as a lot of the water heaters have to make the transition to heat pump. At that point, the overlap and the growth will go up even higher.

在這個階段，給出具體數字還為時過早。但我認為，從長遠來看，我們會看到兩者之間的融合繼續發揮作用，我們處於非常有利的地位，因為許多熱水器必須過渡到熱泵。到那時，重疊度和成長率將會更高。

And that, as you know, happens in 2029 when all electric water heaters over 35 gallons need to be heat pump based. So we think a lot of acceleration will happen at that point. But we would be very well positioned by then.

如您所知，這將在 2029 年實現，屆時所有超過 35 加侖的電熱水器都需要採用熱泵。因此我們認為那時將會出現很大的加速。但到那時我們的處境就會非常有利了。

That's really helpful. And then I wanted to ask you about market share. Sorry if I missed this. I know you talked a little bit about starting to gain some momentum in emergency replacement. But on the residential side of the market, are you still expecting to more or less give back all of the share gains from last year? Or has your view changed at all there based on what you're seeing?

這真的很有幫助。然後我想問您有關市場份額的問題。如果我錯過了這個，很抱歉。我知道您談到了在緊急更換方面開始獲得一些動力。但在住宅市場方面，您是否仍預期去年的市佔率將基本全部回吐？或者根據您所看到的情況，您的觀點是否改變了？

It's too early to say. I think we did expect to give back some of that share. We think we might have given back some in Q2 already because of the R-454B canister shortages. And that's kind of guided our view of the rest of the year. But overall, we are pleased with where we stand. We are pleased with how we've been able to renew most of our contracts and continue to improve our availability hence attract more dealers. So -- but yes, I think we are not banking on keeping all that share. We'll give back quite a bit or partially that share back.

現在說還太早。我認為我們確實希望能返還部分股份。我們認為，由於 R-454B 罐短缺，我們可能已經在第二季度損失了一些。這在某種程度上指導了我們對今年剩餘時間的看法。但總體而言，我們對目前的情況感到滿意。我們很高興能夠續簽大部分合同，並繼續提高我們的可用性，從而吸引更多的經銷商。所以——但是是的，我認為我們並不指望保住所有的份額。我們將返還相當一部分或部分份額。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

I had a two-parter on BCS to start. You lowered the volume to mid-single digits for the year. Could you just talk about why that was -- is it -- I think you mentioned industry softness, but if you could expand on that. And then what do you mean by commercial nearing a bottom? Just unpack that.

我開始在 BCS 上寫兩部分內容。您已將今年的音量降低至個位數中段。您能否談談為什麼會這樣——我想您提到了行業疲軟，但您是否可以詳細說明一下。那你說的商業接近底部是什麼意思呢？只需將其打開即可。

Sure. So I think they're related. I mean, we were expecting BCS industry volume to start hitting bottom by the end of Q1. And it turned out it can declining as the industry volume all throughout Q2. But now we are seeing signs of stabilization, and we do expect things to kind of bounce along the bottom for a bit before the uptick back to more normal levels, starting maybe like late in the second half.

當然。所以我認為它們是相關的。我的意思是，我們預計 BCS 行業交易量將在第一季末開始觸底。事實證明，隨著整個第二季度的行業銷量下降，它可能會下降。但現在我們看到了穩定的跡象，我們確實預計情況會在底部反彈一段時間，然後回升至更正常的水平，大概從下半年後期開始。

So that's the reason we brought our overall BCS volume guide down based on what we saw in Q2. But at the same time, we do see signs of stabilization. And hence, we called out that we are kind of bouncing along the bottom at this stage. You never know how long this will last, but things are no longer getting worse.

這就是我們根據第二季的情況下調整體 BCS 交易量指南的原因。但同時，我們確實看到了穩定的跡象。因此，我們稱，現階段我們正處於底部徘徊的狀態。你永遠不知道這種情況會持續多久，但事情不再變得更糟。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then just a question on whether you're worried about the mild weather. You didn't mention weather as a headwind in the script. So just curious if you thought it was a headwind and -- and maybe just comment on the shape of the quarter, did you see better trends as you got into late June, July, just given the heat wave?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後我再問一下您是否擔心溫和的天氣。你在劇本中沒有提到天氣是逆風。所以我只是好奇，如果您認為這是一個逆風——也許只是對本季度的情況發表評論，考慮到熱浪，您是否在進入 6 月底、7 月份時看到了更好的趨勢？

Yes, that's part of my rule, Ryan, I think you would have talked about it. I don't think we should ever blame weather for our numbers, so we shouldn't talk about that. But obviously, we have seen over the past many years that there's been a late start to the summer and that seems to be continuing this year. May was very soft and towards the end of June, we saw a much stronger sales.

是的，這是我的規則的一部分，瑞安，我想你會談論它。我認為我們不應該將我們的數字歸咎於天氣，所以我們不應該談論這個。但顯然，過去幾年我們已經看到夏季開始得比較晚，而今年這種情況似乎還會持續下去。五月的銷售情況非常疲軟，但到了六月底，我們的銷售情況卻明顯強勁。

So yes, there's clearly a pattern that's related to weather. But that June's strength continues as we look at like in the first few weeks of July as well. So from our perspective, there's some anecdotal data about May being the coldest May in the past, whatever, 20 years plus or so.

所以，是的，顯然存在與天氣相關的模式。但從 7 月的前幾週來看，6 月的強勁勢頭仍將持續。因此，從我們的角度來看，有一些傳聞數據顯示，五月是過去 20 多年來最冷的五月。

But for us, as we look at the replacement demand and we look at where consumer confidence and R-454B canister shortages, those all probably played an equal amount of role into the softer Q2 for HCS. But yes, definitely was a weather impact that got better throughout the quarter.

但對我們來說，當我們觀察替代需求、消費者信心和 R-454B 罐短缺情況時，這些因素可能都對 HCS 疲軟的第二季產生了同等程度的影響。但確實，天氣的影響在整個季度都有所改善。

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的史蒂芬·福爾克曼。

I wanted to dig in a little bit into the price mix question, maybe, Michael. I'm curious, it sounded like from Alok's comments that maybe the mix was negative. So was price like a little stronger and mix perhaps a little bit negative. Did I read that right?

也許，邁克爾，我想深入探討價格組合問題。我很好奇，從 Alok 的評論來看，這種混合可能是負面的。因此價格可能稍微強一些，但混合情況可能有點負面。我讀得對嗎？

It's the opposite. So we've had very strong mix and also continued price. And we blended the two together just because at this point, we started the year with a 10% increase for mix on the 454B product and then followed on with two price increases. So it's -- it's a bit challenging to spike out the difference between mix and price, but overall, the mix is still achieving what we believe is that 10% increase that we began the year with.

事實恰恰相反。因此，我們的產品組合非常強勁，價格也保持穩定。我們將兩者混合在一起，是因為在這一點上，我們年初將 454B 產品的混合價格提高了 10%，隨後又進行了兩次提價。因此，要找出產品組合和價格之間的差異有點困難，但總體而言，我們認為產品組合仍將實現年初設定的 10% 的成長目標。

Got it. Okay. And I guess what I'm really trying to think about here is whether -- like on the repair side, look, I think you mentioned that it was sort of canister related. But are there any signs of just kind of price pushback in the sense that affordability is just getting tough for some people. And therefore, they're perhaps looking to trade down or repair versus replace. Is that a dynamic? Or is it all in your mind, more just canister related?

知道了。好的。我想我在這裡真正想考慮的是——例如在維修方面，看，我認為你提到它與罐子有關。但是否有任何跡象表明價格回落，即對於某些人來說，負擔能力變得越來越困難。因此，他們可能希望降低價格或進行維修而不是更換。這是動態的嗎？或者這一切都只是你想像出來的，只是跟罐子有關？

There's hard to be extremely precise with this, Steve. But I think the way we have looked at it R-454B canister shortage, it impacted the dealer confidence and they are the ones who typically do a great job convincing the consumer on the benefits of replace versus repair and benefit of upgrading. So I think that was the primary.

史蒂夫，這一點很難做到極為精確。但我認為，我們看待 R-454B 罐短缺的方式影響了經銷商的信心，而他們通常能夠很好地說服消費者更換比維修更有好處，升級也有好處。所以我認為這是主要的。

On secondary factory, yes, we have seen consumers trade down. But the entire industry has moved to 70% as the minimum CR equipment, and that continues to be the case for many years. So I do see that trade down trend continues.

在二級工廠，是的，我們看到消費者的交易量下降。但整個產業已經將 70% 作為最低 CR 設備，而且這種情況已經持續了很多年。因此我確實看到貿易下滑趨勢仍在持續。

We have not seen any impact of kind of consumer price elasticity or anything like that. It remains a necessary purchase. But we do see consumers getting two to three codes if earlier they were getting one to two codes. So I think there's a lot more consumers who are like able to get multiple codes versus during COVID, they were delighted if they just got one code and somebody willing and availability to do that.

我們還沒有看到任何消費者價格彈性或類似因素的影響。它仍然是必要的購買。但我們確實看到消費者獲得了兩到三個代碼，而之前他們只能獲得一到兩個代碼。因此，我認為與 COVID 期間相比，現在有更多的消費者能夠獲得多個代碼，如果他們只獲得一個代碼並且有人願意並且有空這樣做，他們會很高興。

So we do see some more consumer looking to get deals. And I think that puts multiple dealers into play at any given time. So we are watching all those trends but nothing unusual this quarter compared to what we had seen earlier, except the 454B canister was unusual. That's why we called that out.

因此，我們確實看到更多消費者尋求優惠。我認為這會在任何時候讓多家經銷商參與其中。因此，我們正在關注所有這些趨勢，但與我們之前看到的相比，本季沒有什麼異常，除了 454B 罐不尋常。這就是我們提出這項呼籲的原因。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague），Vertical Research Partners。

Just a point of clarification before I get to my question. Just on the inflation number you're giving us, the 6%. That's on total COGS and total SG&A and then investments in productivity numbers you gave us are separate and apart from that?

在回答我的問題之前，我只想澄清一點。僅就您提供給我們的通膨數字而言，就是 6%。這是關於總銷貨成本和總銷售、一般及行政費用，然後您給我們的生產力投資數字是與此分開的嗎？

Yes, that's correct. So it would be on the total cost, both cost of goods sold and SG&A. And then from there, then you add on top of it any investments and subtract productivity.

是的，正確。因此它將涉及總成本，包括銷售成本和銷售、一般及行政費用。然後從那裡開始，你再增加任何投資並減去生產力。

I wonder, if you could -- can you just maybe address kind of managing price mix? I think we've kind of tiptoed around a little bit on some of the earlier questions. But it does sound like you're seeing some price elasticity come into play. It also looks to me like you're getting more price than you need and congratulations if you can do that.

我想知道，您是否可以—您能否談談管理價格組合的問題？我認為我們對一些先前的問題有些迴避。但聽起來你確實看到一些價格彈性在發揮作用。在我看來，您得到的價格似乎超出了您的需要，如果您能做到這一點，那麼恭喜您。

But as you try to toggle price you need versus price you can get and the impact that it has on the consumer buying decision. Is there some clear trade-off there in your view in terms of making sure price is not at a level that it negatively impacts mix and then has other ramifications on the whole repair versus replace dynamic?

但是當您嘗試在您需要的價格和您可以獲得的價格之間進行切換時，它對消費者購買決策的影響。在您看來，是否存在一些明確的權衡，以確保價格不會對產品組合產生負面影響，進而對整個維修與更換動態產生其他影響？

Sure. As you know, you never get pricing exactly right. You're always going to be a tad too high or a tad too low. And I think pricing excellence remains overall a very core initiative for us. we often find that we may be underpriced in certain markets and maybe overpriced in sort of other markets, and I'm talking geographically within the US because each region and each local ZIP code has its own pricing.

當然。如您所知，您永遠無法獲得完全正確的定價。你總是會有點太高或太低。我認為，整體而言，卓越定價仍然是我們非常核心的舉措。我們經常發現，在某些市場上我們的定價可能偏低，而在其他市場上我們的定價可能偏高，我指的是美國境內的地理位置，因為每個地區和每個地方郵遞區號都有自己的定價。

So we continuously on a daily basis, manage that and have now started using some really good tools, AI-based tools and a lot of data to make those decisions. And that's probably behind when we talk about why our pricing has yielded good results.

因此，我們每天都會持續進行管理，現在已經開始使用一些非常好的工具、基於人工智慧的工具和大量數據來做出這些決策。當我們談論為什麼我們的定價能夠取得良好的效果時，這可能就是原因所在。

But overall, we remain very sensitive to the trade-off between pricing and share or pricing versus consumer price elasticity. But keep in mind, the consumer price elasticity depends on dealers selling to consumers, not us selling to dealers. And there's a significant markup because of labor installation permits and supplies that happens between when we sell to a dealer versus a dealer sales to consumer.

但總體而言，我們仍然對定價與份額或定價與消費者價格彈性之間的權衡非常敏感。但請記住，消費者價格彈性取決於經銷商向消費者銷售，而不是我們向經銷商銷售。由於人工安裝許可和供應，我們向經銷商銷售產品和經銷商向消費者銷售產品之間存在顯著的加價。

So net-net, I don't know if I would say that our pricing turned out to be much better than expected. I think it was as expected. Tariff costs continue to come through. Remember, we did two price increase on price and on surcharge that we talked about in Q1. We'll end up withdrawing a large portion of that surcharge as some of the tariffs came out lower. So we remain focused on making sure we price fairly and we price competitively in the marketplace.

因此，總的來說，我不知道是否會說我們的定價比預期的要好得多。我認為這是符合預期的。關稅成本持續上升。請記住，我們在第一季討論過價格和附加費的兩次上調。由於部分關稅降低，我們最終將取消大部分附加費。因此，我們始終致力於確保我們的定價公平且在市場上具有競爭力。

Great. And then I'm sorry, I missed the first 5 minutes of the call, but has the line length increase on OEM units going out the door hasn't fully addressed kind of the issue of the canister shortage or do you think we're going to be done talking about canister shortages here as we move through the third quarter?

偉大的。然後我很抱歉，我錯過了電話會議的前 5 分鐘，但是 OEM 設備出門排隊時間的增加是否還沒有完全解決罐短缺的問題，或者您認為隨著第三季度的到來，我們將不再討論罐短缺問題？

Yes. I hope we're done talking about the canister shortages. So the line length issue, and we all have done that, right, gone to 30 feet line length, and that has addressed the concerns from our dealer. Unfortunately, a lot of that inventory hit the sales on our warehouses only in June. So we started to see some of that impact where dealers' concerns were less towards the end of June versus beginning of May.

是的。我希望我們已經討論完罐子短缺的問題了。所以關於線路長度的問題，我們都已經這樣做了，對，線路長度達到了 30 英尺，這解決了我們經銷商的擔憂。不幸的是，許多庫存直到六月才在我們的倉庫中銷售。因此，我們開始看到一些影響，即與 5 月初相比，6 月底經銷商的擔憂有所減少。

But I think all of us now have inventory with 30-feet line length recharge. And that plus there are more canisters available than they were two months ago. So overall, I sincerely hope that you wouldn't be talking about this when we talk about Q3 earnings, and we're talking about it in a more positive way.

但我認為我們所有人現在都有 30 英尺線長補給的庫存。此外，現在可用的罐子比兩個月前還要多。所以總的來說，我真誠地希望當我們談論第三季收益時你不會談論這個問題，而且我們會以更積極的方式談論它。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞·凱伊，奧本海默。

I wanted to ask about the inventory build. You've provided some color, but I was hoping to maybe unpack a little bit further what drove the sequential build between just more build of 454B versus the channel being able to take that and you had Samsung and a couple of other things that you called out. And to put a bow on it, how we should think about kind of the cadence of inventory reduction and where you expect to be at year-end?

我想詢問有關庫存建設的情況。您已經提供了一些細節，但我希望能夠進一步闡明推動連續構建的原因，即僅僅是構建更多的 454B 還是渠道能夠接受它，並且您有三星和您提到的其他一些事情。最後，我們應該如何考慮庫存減少的節奏以及您預計年底庫存減少的程度？

Sure. Yes, just to add some clarity. So we always wanted to make sure we did a successful transition to the new 454B product. And within that, we thought there might be this air pocket coming in the second quarter, but we wanted to have sufficient inventory for the season in case that air pocket didn't come in. It came in a bit as expected.

當然。是的，只是為了增加一些清晰度。因此，我們始終希望確保成功過渡到新的 454B 產品。在此範圍內，我們認為第二季度可能會出現這種空頭回補，但我們希望在本季度有足夠的庫存，以防萬一沒有出現空頭回補。一切正如預期的那樣。

So what we're going to do in the second half of the year is to decelerate some of that inventory and drive it down to more normal levels. There'll still be a growth year-over-year at the end of the year, mostly for these investments for Samsung and the emergency replacement, but it will normalize in the second half of the year, and that's all built into our free cash guide.

因此，我們下半年要做的就是減少部分庫存，並將其降至更正常的水平。今年年底仍將出現同比增長，主要是因為對三星的投資和緊急更換，但下半年將恢復正常，這些都包含在我們的免費現金指南中。

Okay. Just a quick follow-up on that. That inventory that you built that you expect to come down, does most of that kind of remix towards the longer line length and that we were just talking about in the prior question?

好的。對此僅做快速跟進。您預計會減少的庫存，是否會大部分重新混合以適應更長的生產線長度，就像我們在上一個問題中討論的那樣？

Yes. For residential, that would be true. So -- and I think that puts us all in a really good position. But we also have some of the older line length as well. So I think it's a good mix. But most of the one we built recently were the longer line length.

是的。對於住宅來說，確實如此。所以——我認為這讓我們所有人都處於非常有利的地位。但我們也有一些較舊的線路長度。所以我認為這是一個很好的組合。但我們最近建造的大多數都是較長的線路。

Yes. I think people just want to understand like any risk around strain inventory. It sounds like that's not an issue. Last question, you mentioned -- you mentioned Alok that the 25C expiration. Of course, that's eligible through the end of the year to claim any anticipation in the guide of a demand pull forward around that? Are you driving any initiatives with dealers to try to get the credit monetized before it expires?

是的。我認為人們只是想了解有關應變庫存的任何風險。聽起來這不是什麼問題。最後一個問題，您提到—您提到 Alok 25C 到期。當然，到今年年底，我們有資格宣稱對需求拉動指南有任何預期嗎？您是否正在與經銷商合作採取任何舉措，試圖在信貸到期之前將其貨幣化？

I don't expect a significant demand pull. As you know, it was only in single digits that units are compared to units sold that took advantage of the 25C credit. So I think it's a small amount. In '26, maybe the mix would be slightly -- I mean, it's only 6%, 7% of the units were impacted. But no, at this stage, I don't expect any demand pull forward because of that.

我預計需求不會大幅增加。如您所知，與利用 25C 信貸的銷售單位相比，單位數量僅為個位數。所以我認為這個金額很小。在 26 年，也許比例會稍微大一些——我的意思是，只有 6% 到 7% 的單位受到了影響。但不，在現階段，我預計不會因此而出現任何需求拉動。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

瑞穗的布雷特‧林齊 (Brett Linzey)。

I wanted to start with commercial. So you noted the manufacturing productivity continues to ramp in the Mexico facility. I guess as that capacity gets stood up and you're back in the emergency replacement market, do you have any updated thinking on factory output and how that might ramp over the coming quarters as you're filling it out and then driving more revenue there.

我想從商業開始。所以您注意到墨西哥工廠的製造生產力持續提高。我想，隨著產能的提高，你們又回到了緊急替代市場，你們對工廠產量有什麼最新的想法嗎？以及隨著你們填補產能並帶來更多收入，工廠產量將如何在未來幾季成長？

Sure. First of all, I'm delighted that we're talking about factory productivity versus factory inefficiency it seems like for the past four, five quarters, all we were talking about was factory inefficiencies. But yes, delighted that we now have two factories, both are doing well. One in Saltillo very focused on standard product for emergency replacement, nonconfigured and the one in US in Stuttgart, very focused on configured products mostly for key accounts and other applications. So I think that balance is going very well for us.

當然。首先，我很高興我們正在討論工廠生產力與工廠效率低下的問題，似乎在過去的四、五個季度裡，我們討論的都是工廠效率低下的問題。但是，是的，很高興我們現在有兩家工廠，而且兩家工廠都經營得很好。位於薩爾蒂約的一家公司非常專注於緊急替換的標準產品、非配置產品，而位於美國斯圖加特的一家公司則非常專注於配置產品，主要用於重要客戶和其他應用。所以我認為我們的平衡進展得很好。

We have scaled back our labor force. And the factories as our inventory has come to a good level, mostly through attrition and otherwise. And we will continue to kind of balance demand across both to make sure that we serve the customers in the most appropriate way and get the right financial outcome. So I think we're just pleased with that balance and the flexibility we have, which we have never had before. So I do expect our productivity run that started in Q2 to continue for the next multiple quarters as we continue balancing those two.

我們已經縮減了勞動力。作為我們庫存的工廠已經達到了良好的水平，主要是透過消耗和其他方式。我們將繼續平衡兩者的需求，以確保以最合適的方式為客戶提供服務並獲得正確的財務結果。所以我認為我們對這種平衡和靈活性感到滿意，這是我們以前從未有過的。因此，我確實預計，隨著我們繼續平衡這兩者，我們在第二季開始的生產力運行將在接下來的幾季持續下去。

That's great. And then I just wanted to follow up on the repair versus replace discussion. You noted the trade down I guess is there any data you can share on the rate of growth in the parts categories versus equipment or something fundamental in the second quarter, driving that sentiment.

那太棒了。然後我只是想跟進關於修復與更換的討論。您注意到了交易量下降，我想您能否分享一些數據，說明第二季零件類別相對於設備或基本面的成長率，從而推動這種情緒。

And then I guess, how do we think about that dynamic in the context of the raise in the guide for the segment against some pretty tough comps here in the back half?

然後我想，在後半部分針對一些相當強勁的競爭對手的指導價格上漲的背景下，我們如何看待這種動態？

Sure. So I'll take it one at a time, right? On the repair versus replace we are underweight in parts, as you know. So I mean, I'm actually interested to see when others declare their results to see if they have noticed an uptick. But if there was a big uptick in repair parts, we won't necessarily see that, but our part sales were pretty normal in Q2.

當然。所以我會一次解決一個問題，對嗎？如您所知，在維修與更換方面，我們的零件數量不足。所以我的意思是，我實際上很感興趣看看其他人何時宣布他們的結果，看看他們是否注意到了上升。但如果維修零件數量大幅增加，我們就不一定會看到這種情況，但我們第二季的零件銷售相當正常。

So no evidence. But this is more based on just talking with dealers, talking with our key accounts and looking at like other industry trends, there was a comment based on that, but no numerical evidence to support that.

所以沒有證據。但這更多的是基於與經銷商的交談、與我們的主要客戶的交談以及對其他行業趨勢的觀察，有基於此的評論，但沒有數位證據支持這一點。

On the second piece, as we look at it, when we gave the guide for 2025 at the end of Q1. Our view was shaped by a potential impending recession, our view was shaped by potentially tariffs leading to a lot of inflation, and that inflation leading to a lot of demand pull back and consumer uncertainty. Things have just become more stable for the US economy, as you know, since then. So that's primarily the reason for change in our guide is just more stable consumer demand, more stable consumer confidence.

關於第二部分，正如我們在第一季末給出的 2025 年指南。我們的觀點受到潛在的即將到來的經濟衰退的影響，我們的觀點受到潛在的關稅導致的嚴重通貨膨脹的影響，而通貨膨脹導致大量需求回落和消費者不確定性的影響。正如你所知，從那時起，美國經濟就變得更加穩定。因此，我們指南改變的主要原因是消費者需求更加穩定，消費者信心更加穩定。

The new home construction is the one area that remains weak, just like existing home sales, and we did take that into account as we came back with the guide, but that's the piece that continues to be weak.

與現有房屋銷售一樣，新房屋建設是一個仍然疲軟的領域，我們在製定指南時確實考慮到了這一點，但新房屋建設仍然是一個疲軟的部分。

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

Alok, I wanted to start on tariffs and associated surcharges or price increases, whatever you want to call them. I heard you earlier say that you ended up removing all or a substantial portion of the surcharge that was, I guess, announced in second half of April, just as the tariff picture improved.

Alok，我想先談談關稅和相關附加費或價格上漲，不管你想怎麼稱呼它們。我之前聽您說過，您最終取消了全部或大部分附加費，我猜，這個附加費是在 4 月下半月宣布的，當時關稅情況正在好轉。

So if you could walk us through any of the details there, I think it would help to clarify for folks. And then as we look forward, what are some of the potential changes in the tariff landscape where you would have to think about potentially needing to come back for another surcharge? Or it could go the other way as well. There's a lot of influx. So maybe just frame for us what are you watching over the next couple of quarters?

因此，如果您能向我們介紹其中的細節，我認為這將有助於大家澄清。然後，當我們展望未來時，關稅格局中可能出現哪些變化，您可能需要考慮再次徵收附加費？或也可能出現相反的情況。有大量的湧入。那麼，也許您可以為我們概括一下您在接下來的幾個季度中關注什麼？

Sure. Let me start by giving you where we are on the overall tariff landscape, right? I mean when we gave our Q1 guidance, we talked about $250 million in tariff impact to us. If you were to ask the same question again now, we will say the impact is going to be less than half of that. And that's because our teams have done a really good job of mitigating tariffs by switching supply and others.

當然。首先讓我告訴您我們目前的整體關稅狀況，對嗎？我的意思是，當我們給出第一季指引時，我們談到了關稅對我們造成的 2.5 億美元影響。如果你現在再次問同樣的問題，我們會說影響將不到一半。這是因為我們的團隊透過轉換供應和其他方式在降低關稅方面做得非常好。

And as you know, some of the tariffs have been changed or lower. So putting that like an overall impact as much lower. To offset the impact, we had always talked about we're going to focus heavily on productivity, focus on cost control, which we did, and we did pretty effectively, and then we relied on pricing. We have done one price increase and one surcharge related to tariffs.

正如你們所知，部分關稅已經改變或降低。因此，整體影響會小得多。為了抵消影響，我們一直在說，我們將專注於生產力，專注於成本控制，我們確實這樣做了，而且做得非常有效，然後我們依靠定價。我們已經對關稅進行了一次提價和一次附加費徵收。

And eventually, we did withdraw, I wouldn't say all, but majority of the surcharge given that the China tariffs came down substantially from 145 some to a lower number. But the first piece continues and that continues to offset the tariff impact, which we are still facing and that impacts, as said, less than before.

最終，我們確實取消了附加費，雖然不是全部，但鑑於中國關稅已從 145 左右大幅下降到一個較低的數字，我們取消了大部分附加費。但第一部分仍在繼續，並將繼續抵消我們仍然面臨的關稅影響，而且如前所述，這種影響比以前要小。

Going forward, there's a lot of uncertainty. You will have both wish we knew what's going to happen on tariffs tomorrow, but we don't. But we remain concerned about tariffs coming from South Korea. We remain concerned about some of the August 1 tariff deadlines, and we remain concerned about like the future of the US, Mexico, USMCA production and exemption.

展望未來，存在著許多不確定性。你們可能都希望我們知道明天關稅會發生什麼，但我們不知道。但我們仍然擔心來自韓國的關稅。我們仍然對 8 月 1 日的一些關稅期限感到擔憂，我們仍然對美國、墨西哥、USMCA 生產和豁免的未來感到擔憂。

So we continue to watch out for those. But our goal has always been to provide our dealers and contractors a certain level of certainty and a certain level of confidence, which I think we have managed to do successfully by being very disciplined with our tariff versus cost and cost versus price approach.

因此我們會繼續關注這些問題。但我們的目標一直是為我們的經銷商和承包商提供一定程度的確定性和一定程度的信心，我認為我們透過嚴格遵守關稅與成本以及成本與價格的方法成功地做到了這一點。

As a follow-up, I wanted to address the EPS guidance, which you raised today. And maybe stepping back from some of the numbers and just talking philosophically here if we can do that on earnings day. I don't know if that's possible.

作為後續行動，我想談談您今天提出的每股盈餘指引。如果我們能在收益日做到這一點，也許我們可以暫時不談一些數字，而只是在這裡進行哲學討論。我不知道這是否可能。

But I think where a lot of the questions are coming from today, are you raised largely on pushing through the beat in the second quarter. And given some of the recent price cost trends where your incremental margins were pretty impressive this quarter.

但我認為今天提出的許多問題主要是關於第二季度能否取得進展。考慮到最近的一些價格成本趨勢，本季您的增量利潤率相當可觀。

It might suggest a bigger raise would be appropriate for the year. Maybe there's some conservatism embedded in the second half, maybe there are some other factors that haven't come out in the questions today. But anything you could do to help us understand your philosophy here would be helpful.

這可能意味著今年更大的加薪是適當的。也許後半部包含一些保守主義，也許還有一些其他因素在今天的問題中沒有反映出來。但是，只要您能採取任何措施來幫助我們理解您的哲學，那將會很有幫助。

Sure. I read a McKinsey article once, which said that successful companies, 80% of them have an aggressive CEO, but they are balanced by having a conservative CFO. So apparently, those two make a good pair. So maybe I'll let Michael answer the question. But listen, at the end of the day, there's a lot of uncertainty that still remains in the market.

當然。我曾經讀過麥肯錫的一篇文章，其中說，成功的公司中，80％都有一個積極進取的首席執行官，但他們的首席財務官卻很保守。顯然，他們兩個是天生一對。所以也許我會讓麥可來回答這個問題。但聽著，歸根結底，市場上仍然存在著許多不確定性。

There's lots of runs to be around tariffs. There's all the pieces we mentioned about R-454B. Residential new construction remains weak. And so we think our range -- we kept the range of EPS guide to be $1. Normally, we would have narrowed that range at this stage. But given the uncertainty, we kept that range to be $1, and we feel like we appropriately neither conservative nor aggressive, with the new range that we have given out.

圍繞關稅有很多事情要做。這些都是我們提到的有關 R-454B 的所有內容。住宅新開工依然疲軟。因此我們認為我們的範圍——我們將 EPS 指導範圍保持在 1 美元。通常情況下，我們會在這個階段縮小這個範圍。但考慮到不確定性，我們將該範圍保持在 1 美元，我們認為，對於我們給出的新範圍，我們既不保守也不激進。

But Michael, anything you want to add to that?

但是邁克爾，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, I'll just add -- I mean, our goal is to have confidence to make sure that we meet our commitments. And I think we've done this with the guidance that we've laid out. But there is a bit of some conservative in some of the assumptions maybe around some of that cost inflation around 6%, I mean 0.5 point difference there can make a difference in the EPS. But with inflation and uncertainty around that, I think it still makes sense to hold it at 6%, but we'll keep watching that.

是的，我只想補充一點——我的意思是，我們的目標是有信心確保我們能履行承諾。我認為我們已經按照制定的指導方針做到了這一點。但某些假設有些保守，可能成本通膨率在 6% 左右，我的意思是 0.5 個點的差異會對每股盈餘產生影響。但考慮到通貨膨脹及其不確定性，我認為將其維持在 6% 仍然有意義，但我們會繼續關注。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

I wanted to ask about the back half volume outlook for the resi business. In Q2, -- (technical difficulty) . In the back half, it's calling for volumes mostly maybe a little bit worse than that 9%, but the comp goes from 1% in Q2 to a plus 16% in the back half. So I guess in that context, like why are you guys confident that volumes will be mostly stable here given those comps? Is it that the destock through in Q2, and it's now over. Is it the canister issue getting sorted itself out? Any color there would be appreciated.

我想詢問一下住宅業務下半年的銷售前景。在Q2中，--（技術難度）。在下半年，預計銷售量可能會比 9% 略差一些，但年增率從第二季的 1% 上升到下半年的 16%。所以我想，在這種背景下，考慮到這些比較，為什麼你們有信心這裡的交易量將基本保持穩定？是不是第二季去庫存已經結束？碳罐問題能自行解決嗎？任何顏色都會受到歡迎。

All right. So maybe what I'll do is first clarify the numbers. So the balance of the year, we have volumes down in ACS, about 8%. So it's a little bit more than the year-to-date 6% that we saw. And just recall that we will have the comp issue in the second half of basically the fourth quarter.

好的。因此我首先要做的是澄清這些數字。因此，在今年的餘額中，ACS 的交易量下降了約 8%。因此，這比我們看到的今年迄今的 6% 略高一些。請記住，我們將在第四季的下半年遇到補償問題。

So that's kind of built in there. But then we have 10% increase in price mix also on that. So we are building in a little bit more decline in volumes in the second half than what we saw in the first half.

所以這是內建的。但我們的價格組合也因此上漲了 10%。因此，我們預計下半年的銷售下降幅度將比上半年略大。

I appreciate that. I was kind of asking more about the second half versus Q2. I think Q2 volumes were down 9%, and the comp was plus 1%, and now it's minus 8% , -- (technical difficulty) plus 16%.

我很感激。我問的更多的是下半年與第二季相比的情況。我認為第二季的銷量下降了 9%，同期銷量成長了 1%，而現在是下降了 8%，——（技術難度）增加了 16%。

Yes. And I think a lot of that obviously is we talked about destocking, while you can never get the exact numbers we think like destocking is largely behind us after Q2. And we talked a little bit about the canister shortage and how that impacted us, especially before the 30-feet line set units hit the marketplace.

是的。我認為其中很大一部分顯然是我們談論的去庫存問題，雖然你永遠無法獲得確切的數字，但我們認為去庫存在第二季度之後基本上已經過去了。我們稍微談論了罐體短缺問題及其對我們的影響，特別是在 30 英尺管線裝置進入市場之前。

And then finally, we are also guided by the weather pattern that we talked about, right? We've always had a late start to summer, and we ended the quarter with much better sales rate than we did during the middle of the quarter. It's never a perfect science, Chris, as you know, but we feel like we have some and given a fair set of numbers to the best of our visibility at this stage.

最後，我們還會受到我們談到的天氣模式的指導，對嗎？我們的夏季總是開始得比較晚，本季末的銷售率比本季中期的銷售率好得多。克里斯，正如你所知，這從來都不是一門完美的科學，但我們覺得我們已經有一些完美的科學，並根據我們現階段的可見性給出了一組公平的數字。

I appreciate that. And then maybe just on price. Obviously, the industry has a really great track record of pushing price and holding that I guess it feels like here, price -- across -- I imagine it's across the industry, it seems to be running a bit ahead of cost following the de-escalation.

我很感激。然後也許只是價格問題。顯然，該行業在推動價格並維持價格方面有著非常好的記錄，我想這裡的感覺是，價格——整個——我想是整個行業的價格，在降級之後似乎都略微高於成本。

Do you -- are you confident that the industry will be able to retain all of this price as you look out over the next 6, 12 months? Just kind of given some of the earlier comments that there is a little bit more repair versus replace, maybe some trading down in the market?

您是否有信心，展望未來 6 至 12 個月，該行業將能夠維持目前的價格水平？只是考慮到之前的一些評論，即維修比更換稍微多一點，也許市場交易量會下降？

Yes. Listen, I mean, our industry still makes less money than some of the other industries like water heaters. And if you think about all the investments that are needed over the past few years, I mean, we spend hundreds of millions of dollars in capital to get to the R-454B transition. We are spending hundreds of million dollars to get better distribution so we can deliver products the same day and give coats back within two hours. I mean all of those investments are not made by just Lennox, every other player is making that investment as well.

是的。聽著，我的意思是，我們的行業賺的錢仍然比熱水器等其他行業少。如果你考慮過去幾年所需的所有投資，我的意思是，我們花了數億美元的資金來實現 R-454B 轉型。我們花了數億美元來改善分銷，以便我們能夠在同一天交付產品並在兩小時內歸還外套。我的意思是，所有這些投資不僅僅是倫諾克斯做出的，其他每個球員也都在做這樣的投資。

And to recoup those investments, I mean we do need the price impact. And our cost for R-454B units are higher, and we are facing other inflation such as refrigerants and other news that we have looked at it. So I can't speak for others, but if history is of any guide, us and other players will continue to be price disciplined so we can invest in delivering a safe products to our customer, support them appropriately and make sure we live up to our quality and warranty standards.

為了收回這些投資，我的意思是我們確實需要價格影響。而且我們的 R-454B 裝置成本較高，我們還面臨冷媒等其他通膨問題以及我們已經關注的其他新聞。所以我不能代表其他人說話，但如果歷史可以作為借鑒的話，我們和其他參與者將繼續嚴格控制價格，這樣我們就可以投資向客戶提供安全的產品，為他們提供適當的支持，並確保我們達到品質和保固標準。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

I was hoping you can give us a progress report on the emergency replacement initiative I saw that you had added some inventory. So it -- you got to start there to have it ready on that 24 hour notice kind of thing, but just give us an update there, please?

我希望您能向我們提供一份有關緊急更換計劃的進度報告，我看到您已經增加了一些庫存。所以 - 你必須在 24 小時內準備好，但請給我們一個更新信息，好嗎？

Sure. Deane, when we talked in Q1, we were talking about one or two pilot markets on where we learned and kind of got our approved to finalize. Since then, we have expanded, and we are now up to about five or six of those markets, and that's what you start seeing in Q2.

當然。迪恩，當我們在第一季度進行討論時，我們談到了一兩個試點市場，我們在那裡學到了一些東西，並獲得了最終批准。從那時起，我們不斷擴張，現在我們已經進入了大約五到六個這樣的市場，這就是您在第二季開始看到的。

But clearly, there's more room for us to continue expanding through that very soon in the future, you will also see our commercial products even in our residential stores, things that we have never done before as we look at using our distribution footprint more effectively and placing that inventory in the most convenient location for our contractors.

但顯然，我們還有更大的空間來繼續擴張，很快，您還會在我們的住宅商店看到我們的商業產品，這是我們以前從未做過的事情，因為我們正在考慮更有效地利用我們的分銷足跡，並將庫存放置在對我們的承包商來說最方便的位置。

So overall, early innings, but we are pleased with the progress that we have seen. Our pilots have gone well. Our initial rollout has gone well. But there's still a lot of room for us to continue taking this forward. So we're going to be disciplined about it. We are going to be aggressive in our approach, and we're going to continue to make a dent in this. As you know, the overall bogey here is much larger than we are seeing in any quarter. So we think this is a good tailwind for next couple of years plus more.

總體而言，雖然比賽還處於初期階段，但我們對所看到的進展感到滿意。我們的試點進展順利。我們的初步推廣進展順利。但我們仍有很大的發展空間。因此，我們將對此採取紀律措施。我們將採取積極措施，並繼續在這方面取得進展。正如你所知，這裡的整體恐慌比我們在任何一個季度看到的都要大得多。因此，我們認為這對未來幾年甚至更長遠的未來來說是一個很好的順風。

Really good to hear. And then second question, Alok, on page 10 of the deck, you gave some hints about the opportunity to expand product and services in the portfolio. I know you're not going to give a lot of detail here, and we can rule out international but just the idea of where and how are these growth levers? Is it more JVs more on the distribution side? Anything about the timing of where we would see further initiatives kind of like along the lines we saw with water heaters.

聽起來真好。然後是第二個問題，Alok，在簡報的第 10 頁，您給出了一些關於擴展產品組合中的產品和服務的機會的提示。我知道您不會在這裡提供太多細節，我們可以排除國際因素，但可以討論一下這些成長槓桿在哪裡以及如何實現成長？在分銷方面合資企業更多嗎？關於我們何時會看到進一步舉措的任何信息，類似於我們在熱水器方面看到的舉措。

Sure. I think on water heaters and mini splits, the reason we did JVs is because we needed the global technology platform that comes with that because in both of those, the our capabilities could not extend that far.

當然。我認為，在熱水器和迷你分離式空調領域，我們建立合資企業的原因是我們需要隨之而來的全球技術平台，因為在這兩個領域，我們的能力還無法延伸到那麼遠。

But in other areas, and Michael talks about that in capital deployment, that could be parts and supplies, that could be in technology areas that could be in geographical reach on distribution. We would be obviously very open to acquisitions. I mean from our perspective, we have a highly underutilized distribution network as our 250 stores could add a lot more products compared to what we are selling today without adding that much fixed cost.

但在其他領域，麥可談到了資本部署，這可能是零件和供應品，可能是技術領域，可能是地理分佈範圍之內的領域。我們顯然對收購持非常開放的態度。我的意思是，從我們的角度來看，我們的分銷網絡利用率很低，因為我們的 250 家商店可以增加比現在銷售的更多的產品，而無需增加那麼多的固定成本。

So we will continue looking at that from a M&A perspective. And on the JVs, we only did that because we had like companies which are well-established products, well-established reputation that could allow us a faster entry into those markets. So stay tuned, definitely more to come.

因此，我們將繼續從併購的角度來看這個問題。而對於合資企業，我們這樣做只是因為我們擁有類似的公司，這些公司擁有成熟的產品和良好的聲譽，可以讓我們更快進入這些市場。請關注，未來肯定還會有更多內容。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。

Wanted to just touch on destock and market share a little bit more. And so look, I think the way you framed it is that your view is the destock headwind you talked about has largely played out to that $125 million, I think you saw it in BCS in Q1, and it sounds like you think you saw most of the HCS impact in Q2, obviously, back half of the year comps, but just in terms of what that downdraft would have been in the first half of the year and so largely done there.

想再多談一下去庫存和市佔率。所以，我認為您表達的方式是，您談到的去庫存逆風在很大程度上已經影響到了 1.25 億美元，我認為您在第一季度的 BCS 中看到了這一點，聽起來您認為您在第二季度看到了大部分 HCS 的影響，顯然，與上半年相比，但僅就上半年的下行氣流而言，基本上是在那裡完成的。

And then just also to add market share to the question. How many points of share do you think you gained last year? And within the guide, how much have you given back this year in HCS?

然後還要將市場份額添加到問題中。您認為去年您的市佔率增加了多少？在指南中，今年您在 HCS 回饋了多少？

Yes. So the first one, I would say, yes, all of those statements are largely true, right? And you realize that $100 million, $125 million, these are large approximate numbers, right? We don't -- we don't have precise accurate math behind it. But in general, it's fair to say that at this stage, the $125 million in destocking that we talked about is essentially done there might be some bleed through in Q3, but I think it's going to be small.

是的。所以第一個問題，我想說，是的，所有這些陳述基本上都是正確的，對嗎？你知道 1 億美元、1.25 億美元，這些都是很大的近似數字，對吧？我們沒有——我們沒有精確的數學基礎。但總的來說，公平地說，在現階段，我們談到的 1.25 億美元的去庫存計劃基本上已經完成，第三季度可能會出現一些滲漏，但我認為滲漏幅度會很小。

The comps obviously remain difficult, right? So I think that's the path we have watched out for and that we embedded in our guide going forward to make sure like that's been very clear to that.

比賽顯然仍然很困難，對吧？所以我認為這是我們一直關注的道路，我們將其嵌入到我們的指南中，以確保這一點非常清晰。

Regarding market share, I mean, it's a moving piece. Remember, we look at both HARDI and AHRI because 70% of our sales go directly to dealer and with stock up and stocking and destocking, those numbers often have large error bars when we go into the season.

至於市場份額，我的意思是，這是一個變動的因素。請記住，我們同時關注 HARDI 和 AHRI，因為我們 70% 的銷售額直接流向經銷商，並且隨著庫存的增加、庫存的減少，這些數字在進入季節時通常會出現很大的誤差。

But I would say that we ended I'm not going to give a number, but I will say that in 2024, we ended up having the largest market share we have ever had in the history of Lennox when it came to residential. And even if we give some back this year as we expected and as we had broadcast, we'll probably still end up 2025 at a very healthy and a large market share. That's better than what we had in the past.

但我想說的是，我們不打算給出一個數字，但我會說，在 2024 年，我們最終擁有了 Lennox 歷史上住宅領域最大的市場份額。即使我們今年如預期和廣播中所述回吐了一些份額，到 2025 年我們可能仍將擁有非常健康的龐大市場份額。這比我們過去的情況要好。

For a second, I thought you might actually give the number, but I appreciate the color there. And then, on -- Michael, just thinking about the 25.3% margin in Q2 in HCS. As we think about that as a jumping off point in the bridge into the back half of the year, and what's embedded within guidance. Is there anything from a mix shift on the trade down you guys have talked about, any cost impact with tariffs or copper, like anything that just changes within the complexion of that 25.3% or it's just like normal seasonality from there?

有一秒鐘，我以為你可能真的會給出數字，但我很欣賞那裡的顏色。然後，邁克爾，我只是在考慮 HCS 第二季度 25.3% 的利潤率。我們認為這是進入下半年的橋樑的起點，也是指導中所包含的內容。你們談到的貿易下滑中是否存在混合轉變，關稅或銅對成本有任何影響，例如在 25.3% 的範圍內有什麼變化，或者這只是正常的季節性變化？

Yes. I think what we built is a little bit more cost escalation in the second half as the tariffs come back in. But still, overall, we feel confident that margins are going to increase in the second half of this year at least 50 basis points in HCS, and that's with volumes down 8%, up maybe 70 basis points for the full year. We'll see where inflation comes, hopefully, it comes in a little bit lower, and we could maybe do a little better than that. But we feel good on price cost management at the moment.

是的。我認為，隨著關稅的恢復，下半年我們的成本會略有上升。但總體而言，我們相信今年下半年 HCS 的利潤率將增加至少 50 個基點，而全年的利潤率可能會上升 70 個基點，儘管交易量下降了 8%。我們將觀察通貨膨脹的情況，希望它能稍微低一點，我們或許可以做得更好一點。但目前我們對價格成本管理感覺良好。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Congrats on the execution in a pretty choppy environment there.

恭喜您在相當不穩定的環境中成功執行任務。

Thanks, that means a lot, especially coming from you, Steve.

謝謝，這對我意義重大，尤其是來自你，史蒂夫。

I wouldn't overpunch the worth of my opinion, but thank you for that. So I just wanted to kind of clarify some numbers. So you got on the 6% on $4 billion, that's like $240 million now you're talking about as far as inflation is concerned, I know there's like some moving parts between that and like the breed items, I think, because the product cost numbers in the first half are like running at like $45 million, something like that.

我不會過度強調我的觀點的價值，但還是謝謝。所以我只是想澄清一些數字。因此，就通貨膨脹而言，您得到的是 40 億美元的 6%，也就是 2.4 億美元，我知道這和品種項目之間存在一些變動，因為上半年的產品成本數字大約是 4500 萬美元，諸如此類。

Are those two numbers the right comparables? Or I think I'm missing maybe something productivity-wise in between those? But I guess out of the $240 million, I guess a simple question is how much have you kind of booked year-to-date?

這兩個數字是否具有正確的可比較性？或者我認為我可能忽略了其中某些生產力方面的東西？但我想，在這 2.4 億美元中，一個簡單的問題是，今年迄今為止您預訂了多少？

Yes, Steve, I think what you want to do is look at the product cost and the other combined since the inflation is on our total cost perspective, those two combined are bought up $80 million in the first half and applies to about $180 million kind of in the second half.

是的，史蒂夫，我認為你想要做的是看看產品成本和其他成本的總和，因為通貨膨脹是從我們的總成本角度考慮的，這兩個成本的總和在上半年是 8000 萬美元，在下半年大約是 1.8 億美元。

Okay. So $180 million in the second half of that cost flowing through?

好的。那麼，後半部有 1.8 億美元的成本流出？

Correct.

正確的。

To get to that. Okay.

為了達到這個目的。好的。

No, -- sorry, $180 million on the full year.

不，抱歉，全年是 1.8 億美元。

On the full year, okay. Right. Yes, that includes that like that productivity and the other numbers above the line on product cost. Okay. That makes some sense.

就全年而言，好的。正確的。是的，這包括生產力和產品成本線以上的其他數字。好的。這有一定的道理。

And then I guess just from a pricing perspective, what have you -- have you guys like booked -- is this kind of a normal now run rate here? Or you guys have -- did that price get booked kind of midway through the quarter? Or is that something that's now kind of fully embedded in a run rate in the second quarter?

然後我想僅從定價的角度來看，你們有什麼——你們預訂了嗎——這是現在正常的運行率嗎？或者你們有——這個價格是在本季中期預訂的嗎？或者這是否已經完全嵌入到第二季的運行率中？

I would say, got booked midway through the quarter. The A2L pricing, as you know, depends on the mix as well, and the mix shifted much more towards 454B till the end of the quarter. And the tariff pricing, the way the announcement work, we're probably at 2/3 of the quarter where the tariff pricing was in effect on that.

我想說的是，在本季中期就被預訂了。如您所知，A2L 的定價也取決於組合，到本季末，組合已更多地轉向 454B。關稅定價和公告的運作方式，我們可能已經在本季的 2/3 時間內實施了關稅定價。

Joseph, your line is open.

約瑟夫，你的線路暢通了。

This is Joe. I didn't hear the operator. So on the third quarter, a couple of quick questions (technical difficulty) earlier, but when you look at the residential volumes down 9% this quarter. What is your intent in distribution channel versus what you sell through the dealer network? (technical difficulty)

我是喬。我沒聽清接線生的聲音。因此，關於第三季度，我之前問了幾個快速問題（技術難題），但當你看到本季住宅交易量下降了 9% 時。與您透過經銷商網路銷售的產品相比，您在分銷管道中的意圖是什麼？（技術難度）

Yes. What we saw is on the two-step total revenue was up about 10%. The one-step total revenue was about flat. So that's with volume and price mix.

是的。我們看到，兩步走下來，總收入成長了約 10%。單步總收入基本持平。這就是數量和價格的組合。

That's with volume and price mix. Okay. Got it. And then basically -- got it. Okay. And then just kind of like the volume assumptions then in the second half of the year, I know that the $125 million is in a totally precise number. But it implies like basically like a 6% to 7% volume headwind in the second half.

這是數量和價格的組合。好的。知道了。然後基本上就明白了。好的。然後就像下半年的交易量假設一樣，我知道 1.25 億美元是一個完全精確的數字。但這基本上意味著下半年銷售將面臨 6% 至 7% 的逆風。

So like really what you're expecting out of your residential volumes, excluding that onetime impact from the prebuy last year is really kind of like down, call it, like 1% to 2%. Am I thinking about it the right way?

因此，正如您所預期的，住宅銷量實際上會有所下降，排除去年預購帶來的一次性影響，大概會下降 1% 到 2%。我的想法正確嗎？

Yes. I think roughly, that's about right. I think I haven't done the exact math, but yes, that's the right way to think about it.

是的。我粗略地想了一下，差不多就是這樣。我想我沒有做過精確的計算，但是的，這是正確的思考方式。

Okay. All right. So that's good. So things getting a little bit better on the volume assumptions as we exit the year. And I know some of you earlier asked about pricing and call it, like the inelasticity of pricing into next.

好的。好的。這很好。因此，隨著今年的結束，交易量假設的情況會有所改善。我知道你們中的一些人之前問過定價問題，並將其稱為定價的非彈性。

I'm actually curious on the third term because didn't fully implemented this year. And so can it seem to me that you should -- I'm sorry, I didn't need surcharge on the mix side. You should improve on mix in the second -- in 2026 as well because you'll have -- you'll be selling R-454B, is that right way to think about it, even though mix was very positive in 2025, should be some improvement on mix in 2026 as well? (technical difficulty)

我實際上對第三個術語很好奇，因為今年還沒有完全實施。所以在我看來你應該——對不起，我不需要混合方面的附加費。您應該在第二季（即 2026 年）改善產品組合，因為您將銷售 R-454B，這樣想對嗎？儘管 2025 年的產品組合非常積極，但 2026 年的產品組合也應該有所改善？（技術難度）

Yes, I think that's right, Joe. We talked earlier about in 2025, of our product was going to be 454 and 40% was going to be 410A. In 2026, it will be 100% 454 and 0% 410A. So yes, we do expect mix to improve and you'll see year-over-year will be better like Q1 and Q2. By Q3, Q4, I think it will start normalizing more. But I think that's a fair way to think about it for 2026.

是的，喬，我想你說得對。我們之前提到過，到2025年，我們的產品中454安培的比例將達到40%，而410安培的比例將達到40%。到 2026 年，454 型將佔 100%，410A 型將佔 0%。所以是的，我們確實預計組合會有所改善，你會看到同比情況會更好，就像第一季和第二季一樣。到第三季、第四季，我認為它將開始更加正常化。但我認為這是對 2026 年的一個公平思考。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

I really appreciate you going along here to fits all in. Just wanted to follow up on the direct versus indirect. I think you said two step up 10% all-in revenues and then direct flat. If we saw the destock happening in 2Q, I expect that to being expressed more in a two-step channel. So just a little bit confused there. Maybe I'm thinking about the wrong way, but any thoughts on that?

我真的很感謝你能來到這裡，讓我們都融入其中。只是想跟進直接與間接的關係。我認為您說的是將總收入提高 10%，然後直接持平。如果我們看到第二季度出現去庫存現象，我預計這將更多地體現在兩步通道中。所以我有點困惑。也許我的想法是錯的，但是對此有什麼想法嗎？

First of all, I think our exposure to two step is much smaller than others. So I wouldn't read too much into that from an overall industry perspective. I think one thing to keep in mind is in the two-step channel because of tariffs and because of the R-454Bs uncertainty and all of that, people continue to maintain high levels of inventory. And that's one thing we referred to saying some of this might bleed into Q3, as we look at distributors and how much inventory they have.

首先，我認為我們對Two Step的接觸比其他人小得多。因此，我不會從整個行業的角度對此進行過多的解讀。我認為需要記住的一件事是，在兩步驟管道中，由於關稅以及 R-454B 的不確定性等原因，人們繼續保持高水準的庫存。這就是我們提到的一件事，當我們查看分銷商及其庫存量時，其中一些可能會延續到第三季。

On the one step, as we looked at it, -- we did talk about even one step is not immune to holding any inventory during transition. There was some inventory one step was holding as well. But net-net, as we put together, I put that within the overall fluctuations and the uncertainty that we experienced.

就我們看的這一步而言，我們確實討論過，即使是這一步，在過渡期間也無法避免持有任何庫存。一步之遙也持有一些庫存。但當我們把淨值放在一起時，我把它放在了我們所經歷的整體波動和不確定性之中。

But Michael?

但是麥可？

Yes, the thing I'll add to is the two-step doesn't have the R&C exposure as the one step does as well. .

是的，我要補充的是，兩步驟法不具備 R&C 曝光度，而一步法則具備。。

Yes, that's right, Michael. This is a good reminder.

是的，沒錯，麥可。這是一個很好的提醒。

Yes, that's great color. And then a quick follow-on. Just kind of on the notion of inventories. Your inventories stepped up pretty meaningfully from 1Q to 2Q. And normally, we see inventory bleed down in the second quarter.

是的，顏色很棒。然後快速跟進。這只是關於庫存的概念。從第一季到第二季度，你們的庫存有顯著的成長。通常情況下，我們會看到第二季庫存減少。

So I know we've got higher unit costs with 454B and I know that we've got some build with ER. But any more color in terms of how you see inventories -- but first of all, why it is so high? And then how do you see that progressing through the year?

所以我知道 454B 的單位成本更高，而且我知道 ER 有一些建設。但是您如何看待庫存？首先，為什麼庫存如此高？那麼，您認為今年的進展如何？

Yes. We wanted to play it safe during the 454B transition and given the industry uncertainty. As you know, on the number one complaint from our dealers over the past five, six years has always been around availability of our product. So we wanted to address that fully. So I think we did that.

是的。考慮到產業的不確定性，我們希望在 454B 過渡期間採取安全措施。如您所知，過去五、六年來，我們經銷商收到的頭號投訴始終與我們產品的可用性有關。因此，我們希望全面解決這個問題。所以我認為我們做到了。

And yes, some of it was also the seasonality of having a slow start to the summer. Net-net, as you know, we would generate most of our cash in the second half, and we have good confidence on our overall cash outlook, and we will bring the inventory depleted down over the next several months.

是的，部分原因也是由於夏季開始較慢的季節性因素。總體而言，如您所知，我們將在下半年產生大部分現金，並且我們對整體現金前景充滿信心，並且我們將在未來幾個月內減少庫存消耗。

So we look at it internally and say, is it a little bit more than we thought? Yes, but we are confident that it's the right thing to do, and we'll bleed it down before the end of the year. .

因此我們從內部審視這個問題並說，它是否比我們想像的要多一點？是的，但我們相信這是正確的做法，我們會在年底前完成它。。

Thank you for joining us today. Since there are no further questions, this will conclude Lennox's 2025 second quarter conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

感謝您今天加入我們。由於沒有其他問題，Lennox 2025 年第二季電話會議將結束。現在您可以斷開線路。