Lennox International Inc (LII) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Lennox third-quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 Lennox 第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chelsey Pulcheon from Lennox Investor Relations. Chelsey, please go ahead.

提醒一下，本次通話正在錄音。現在我想將會議交給 Lennox 投資者關係部門的 Chelsey Pulcheon。切爾西，請繼續。

Thank you, Katie. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us as we share our 2025 3rd quarter results. Joining me today is CEO, Alok Maskara; and CFO, Michael Quenzer. Each will share their prepared remarks before we move to the Q&A session.

謝謝你，凱蒂。大家早安。感謝您與我們分享 2025 年第三季的業績。今天與我一起出席的是執行長 Alok Maskara 和財務長 Michael Quenzer。在進入問答環節之前，每個人都會分享他們準備好的演講稿。

Turning to slide 2, a reminder that during today's call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as outlined on this page. We may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that management considers relevant indicators of underlying business performance. Please refer to our SEC filings available on our Investor Relations website for additional details, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures.

翻到投影片 2，提醒一下，在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述會受到本頁概述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響。我們也可能參考管理階層認為與基礎業務績效相關的某些非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱我們投資者關係網站上提供的 SEC 文件以獲取更多詳細信息，包括 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的對帳。

The earnings release, today's presentation and the webcast archived link for today's call are available on our Investor Relations website at investor.lennox.com.

收益報告、今天的簡報和今天電話會議的網路廣播存檔連結可在我們的投資者關係網站 investor.lennox.com 上找到。

Now please turn to slide 3 as I turn the call over to our CEO, Alok Maskara.

現在請翻到投影片 3，我將把電話轉給我們的執行長 Alok Maskara。

Thank you, Chelsey. Good morning, everyone. I'm proud to report that Lennox maintained resilient margins and high customer service levels amidst a very challenging external environment. Our talented team worked tirelessly with our loyal customers and channel partners to deliver these results, and I'm very grateful for their hard work. Our results were also fueled by our recent investments, which will accelerate our growth and expand our margins as the industry turns the corner into a brighter 2026.

謝謝你，切爾西。大家早安。我很自豪地報告，在極具挑戰性的外部環境中，Lennox 維持了穩健的利潤率和高水準的客戶服務。我們才華橫溢的團隊與忠實的客戶和通路合作夥伴不懈努力，取得了這些成果，我非常感謝他們的辛勤工作。我們的業績也得益於我們最近的投資，隨著產業進入更光明的 2026 年，這些投資將加速我們的成長並擴大我們的利潤率。

Let us turn to slide 3 for an overview of our third-quarter financials. Revenue this quarter declined 5% as growth initiatives and share gains were unable to fully offset the impact of soft residential and commercial end markets. Ongoing channel inventory rebalancing and weak dealer conference following the regulatory transition created more complexity for the quarter.

讓我們翻到投影片 3 來概覽一下我們第三季的財務狀況。由於成長措施和份額成長無法完全抵消疲軟的住宅和商業終端市場的影響，本季營收下降了 5%。監管轉型後持續的通路庫存再平衡和疲軟的經銷商會議為本季帶來了更多複雜性。

Our segment margin was 21.7%, a record for the third quarter. Operating cash flow was $301 million, which was lower than last year as a sharp industry decline has temporarily elevated our finished goods inventory levels.

我們的分部利潤率為 21.7%，創下第三季的最高紀錄。經營現金流為 3.01 億美元，低於去年，因為產業急劇下滑導致我們的成品庫存水準暫時上升。

Adjusted earnings per share was a third quarter record of $6.98, a 4% year-over-year increase. HCS segment profit margin expanded by 30 basis points as the team executed meaningful cost actions to offset industry headwinds.

調整後每股收益達到第三季的最高紀錄 6.98 美元，年增 4%。由於團隊採取了有意義的成本措施來抵消行業逆風，HCS 部門的利潤率擴大了 30 個基點。

HCS' revenues declined 12% as the residential industry faced a weak summer selling season and as both contractors and distributors rebalance inventory post regulatory transition. BCS segment results were impressive as profit margins expanded 330 basis points and revenue grew 10%, even though the end markets remained weak. The team was able to offset end market conditions with rigorous execution of growth initiatives such as share gains in emergency replacement, business development and refrigeration and full life cycle value proposition in commercial services.

由於住宅業面臨夏季銷售疲軟以及承包商和分銷商在監管過渡後重新平衡庫存，HCS 的收入下降了 12%。儘管終端市場依然疲軟，但 BCS 部門的表現令人印象深刻，利潤率擴大了 330 個基點，營收成長了 10%。該團隊透過嚴格執行成長計劃（例如緊急更換、業務發展和冷卻方面的份額成長以及商業服務中的全生命週期價值主張）來抵消終端市場條件。

Given current end market conditions, we are adjusting our full year outlook to reflect an anticipated sales decline of 1%. We now expect adjusted earnings per share in the range of $22.75.

鑑於當前的終端市場狀況，我們正在調整全年預期，以反映預期的 1% 的銷售額下降。我們現在預計調整後的每股收益將在 22.75 美元左右。

Now let's move to slide 4 to discuss how our recent acquisition will increase the attachment rate for our parts and accessories. Differentiated growth at Lennox is driven by four growth vectors: heat pump penetration, emergency replacement share gains, higher attachment rates for parts and services and total addressable market expansion through joint ventures, such as Samsung and Ariston.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 4，討論我們最近的收購將如何提高我們的零件和配件的附著率。雷諾斯的差異化成長由四個成長向量驅動：熱泵滲透率、緊急替換份額成長、零件和服務的更高附加率以及透過三星和阿里斯頓等合資企業實現的整體可尋址市場擴張。

Our bolt-on acquisition of AES Industries in 2023 helped accelerate the attachment of commercial services and was a tremendous success based on financial and strategic metrics. As a result, our commercial services business has more than doubled over the past three years. Similarly, the recent acquisition of Duro Dyne and Supco will help accelerate attachment of parts and accessories across both HCS and BCS segments.

我們於 2023 年對 AES Industries 進行附加收購，有助於加速商業服務的附加，並在財務和策略指標上取得了巨大成功。因此，我們的商業服務業務在過去三年中成長了一倍以上。同樣，最近收購 Duro Dyne 和 Supco 將有助於加速 HCS 和 BCS 領域的零件和配件的連接。

The acquired business has annual revenues of approximately $225 million and a solid growth trajectory with strong margins. This acquisition meets our disciplined criteria and will be accretive in 2026. The acquired business provides Lennox with additional products brands and distribution scale to accelerate the growth of our parts and accessories portfolio.

被收購的業務年收入約 2.25 億美元，成長勢頭強勁，利潤率較高。此次收購符合我們的嚴格標準，並將於 2026 年實現增值。收購的業務為 Lennox 提供了額外的產品品牌和分銷規模，以加速我們的零件和配件產品組合的成長。

We see a significant opportunity to increase the attachment rates, one of our four key growth vectors, the integration of Duro Dyne and Supco will also lead to meaningful cost synergies that make this transaction even more attractive to Lennox stakeholders.

我們看到了提高附著率的重大機遇，這是我們的四個關鍵成長載體之一，Duro Dyne 和 Supco 的整合也將帶來有意義的成本協同效應，使這筆交易對 Lennox 利益相關者更具吸引力。

Our integration team has already identified sourcing opportunities, and we are confident about creating additional value as we align the business with Lennox standard infrastructure and implement our unified management system.

我們的整合團隊已經確定了採購機會，我們有信心在將業務與 Lennox 標準基礎設施結合併實施統一的管理系統時創造更多價值。

Now let me hand the call over to Michael, who will take us through the details of our Q3 financial results.

現在，我將把電話交給邁克爾，他將向我們詳細介紹我們的第三季財務業績。

Thank you, Alok. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 5. As Alok outlined, in the third quarter, we continued to navigate a dynamic operating environment characterized by uneven demand due to the new refrigerant transition and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. These pressures resulted in a 5% decline in revenue.

謝謝你，阿洛克。大家早安。請翻到投影片 5。正如阿洛克所概述的，在第三季度，我們繼續應對動態的營運環境，其特點是由於新冷媒的轉換和更廣泛的宏觀經濟不確定性而導致的需求不均衡。這些壓力導致收入下降了5%。

However, our team acted decisively and maintained operational discipline, delivering 2% growth in segment profit and achieving margin expansion. This profit improvement was primarily driven by favorable product mix and pricing, supported by the successful launch of our new R454B products. We also saw benefits from improved cost management, including reductions in selling and administration expenses. These gains were partially offset by lower sales volumes and increased product costs, largely due to ongoing inflationary pressures.

然而，我們的團隊果斷行動，維持營運紀律，實現了分部利潤成長2%，利潤率也擴大了。利潤的成長主要得益於有利的產品組合和定價，以及我們成功推出的新產品 R454B。我們也看到了成本管理改善的好處，包括銷售和管理費用的減少。這些收益被銷售下降和產品成本增加部分抵消，這主要是由於持續的通膨壓力。

Let's now turn to slide 6 to review the performance of our Home Comfort Solutions segment. Home Comfort Solutions experienced a softer demand in the third quarter, with revenue declining by 12% and primarily due to a 23% decline in unit sales volumes.

現在讓我們翻到投影片 6 來回顧我們的家庭舒適解決方案部門的表現。家居舒適解決方案部門第三季的需求疲軟，營收下降了 12%，主要原因是單位銷售量下降了 23%。

While we anticipated a decline in sales volume, the extent was greater than expected due to several contributing factors, contractors and distributors actively reduced inventory levels, macroeconomic softness weighed on both new and existing home sales, moderate weather dampened demand and there was a clear shift towards systems repair rather than full replacements. Despite these challenges, mix and pricing remain favorable, supported by ongoing transition to the new R454B products.

雖然我們預計銷售量會下降，但由於多種因素，銷售量下降的幅度大於預期，承包商和分銷商積極降低庫存水平，宏觀經濟疲軟對新房和現有房屋銷售造成壓力，溫和的天氣抑制了需求，並且明顯轉向系統維修而不是全面更換。儘管面臨這些挑戰，但由於向新的 R454B 產品持續過渡，產品組合和定價仍然保持有利。

On the cost front, inflationary pressures on materials and components continue to weigh on product costs. These headwinds were partially offset by successful tariff mitigation strategies and sustained improvements in operational efficiency driven by targeted cost actions. We also benefited from SG&A cost reductions, though these were partially offset by ongoing investments in our distribution network.

在成本方面，材料和零件的通膨壓力繼續對產品成本造成壓力。成功的關稅減免策略和有針對性的成本行動推動的營運效率的持續提高部分抵消了這些不利因素。我們也受惠於銷售、一般及行政費用的降低，儘管這些成本被我們分銷網絡的持續投資部分抵消。

Moving on to slide 7. Building Climate Solutions gained momentum in the quarter, delivering a strong 10% revenue growth, driven by a 10% benefit from favorable product mix and pricing while volumes were flat. Light commercial HVAC, which represents approximately 50% of BCS revenue, continued to see year-over-year declines in industry shipments.

轉到投影片 7。建築氣候解決方案在本季發展勢頭強勁，收入強勁增長 10%，這得益於有利的產品組合和定價，儘管銷量持平，但收益卻增長了 10%。輕型商用 HVAC 約佔 BCS 收入的 50%，其產業出貨量持續年減。

Despite these market headwinds, we maintained volume levels through share gains in emergency replacement products and solid growth across our refrigeration and service offerings. On the cost side, material inflation remained elevated but was partially offset by gains in factory productivity as our new facility continues to enhance operational efficiencies.

儘管面臨這些市場阻力，我們仍透過緊急替代產品的份額成長以及冷凍和服務產品的穩健成長維持了銷售水準。在成本方面，材料通膨仍居高不下，但隨著新工廠不斷提高營運效率，工廠生產率的提高部分抵銷了這一成本上漲。

Turning to slide 8. Let's review cash flow and capital deployment. From a free cash flow standpoint, we are revising our full year 2025 guidance to approximately $550 million. This adjustment reflects elevated inventory levels driven by lower-than-expected sales volumes. We expect inventory levels to normalize in 2026, while continuing to support strategic investments in commercial emergency replacement and the launch of our new Samsung dockless product line.

翻到幻燈片 8。讓我們回顧一下現金流和資本配置。從自由現金流的角度來看，我們將 2025 年全年指引修改為約 5.5 億美元。這項調整反映了由於銷售量低於預期而導致的庫存水準上升。我們預計庫存水準將在 2026 年恢復正常，同時繼續支援對商業緊急更換和推出新的三星無基座產品線的策略性投資。

The $550 million of free cash flow includes approximately $150 million in capital expenditures primarily focused on expanding our distribution network, enhancing the customer digital experience and establishing multiple innovation and training centers designed to help our customers succeed in their local markets.

5.5 億美元的自由現金流包括約 1.5 億美元的資本支出，主要用於擴大我們的分銷網絡、增強客戶數位體驗以及建立多個創新和培訓中心，旨在幫助我們的客戶在當地市場取得成功。

On capital deployment, we have repurchased approximately $350 million in shares year to date, and with $1 billion remaining under our current authorization, we will continue to opportunistically repurchase shares. We also continue to evaluate strategic bolt-on acquisition opportunities that enhance our distribution capabilities and expand our product portfolio. As we pursue these initiatives, we remain committed to preserving a healthy debt leverage across all capital allocation decisions.

在資本配置方面，今年迄今為止我們已經回購了約 3.5 億美元的股票，根據我們目前的授權還剩下 10 億美元，我們將繼續抓住機會回購股票。我們也將繼續評估策略性附加收購機會，以增強我們的分銷能力並擴大我們的產品組合。在推行這些措施的同時，我們仍致力於在所有資本配置決策中保持健康的債務槓桿。

If you'll now turn to slide 9, I'll review our full year 2025 guidance. In response to evolving market conditions, we are updating our full year guidance to reflect deeper inventory destocking trends and continued macroeconomic weakness, particularly in home sales and consumer confidence.

如果您現在翻到投影片 9，我將回顧我們 2025 年全年的指導。為了因應不斷變化的市場狀況，我們正在更新全年指導，以反映更深層的庫存去庫存趨勢和持續的宏觀經濟疲軟，特別是房屋銷售和消費者信心。

Starting with revenue. We now expect full year revenue to decline by 1% compared to our previous guidance of 3% growth. This revision is primarily driven by lower total sales volumes in Home Conference Solutions which are now expected to decline in the mid-teens range compared to our previous guidance of high single-digit decrease.

從收入開始。我們現在預計全年營收將下降 1%，而我們先前預測的成長率為 3%。此次修訂主要是由於家庭會議解決方案的總銷量下降所致，與我們先前預測的高個位數降幅相比，目前預計該部門的銷售量將下降十幾個百分點。

With the successful closing of our Duro Dyne and Supco acquisition, we expect an approximate 1% contribution to full year revenue growth with a minimal impact on EBIT due to purchase price amortization of approximately $10 million.

隨著我們對 Duro Dyne 和 Supco 的收購成功完成，我們預計這將為全年收入增長貢獻約 1%，而由於收購價格攤銷約為 1000 萬美元，對息稅前利潤的影響微乎其微。

On mix and price, we continue to expect a combined benefit of 9%, consistent with our prior estimate. Turning to cost estimates. We now expect cost inflation to increase total costs by approximately 5% and down from our prior estimate of 6%. This improvement is driven by successful tariff mitigation efforts and additional cost actions.

在組合和價格方面，我們繼續預期綜合收益為 9%，與我們先前的估計一致。轉向成本估算。我們現在預計成本通膨將使總成本增加約 5%，低於我們先前估計的 6%。這項改善得益於成功的關稅減免措施和額外的成本行動。

Looking at other key metrics. We now expect interest expense to be approximately $40 million, reflecting our recent $550 million acquisition and lower free cash flow due to elevated inventory. Our tax rate is projected to be around 19.3%.

查看其他關鍵指標。我們現在預計利息支出約為 4000 萬美元，反映了我們最近 5.5 億美元的收購以及由於庫存增加導致的自由現金流減少。我們的稅率預計在19.3%左右。

On earnings per share, we are updating our EPS guidance to a range of $22.75 to $23.25 and down from the previous range of $23.25 to $24.25. And finally, as mentioned earlier, we now expect full year free cash flow to be approximately $550 million revised from our prior guidance of $650 million to $800 million.

關於每股盈餘，我們將每股盈餘預期上調至22.75美元至23.25美元，低於先前的23.25美元至24.25美元。最後，如前所述，我們目前預計全年自由現金流約為5.5億美元，此前預期為6.5億美元至8億美元。

In summary, while 2025 remains challenging with industry softness and double-digit declines in sales volumes, our continued focus on operating discipline positioned us to grow earnings per share, and we remain optimistic about a return to market growth in 2026.

總而言之，儘管 2025 年仍然充滿挑戰，行業疲軟，銷量出現兩位數下降，但我們持續關注營運紀律，這使我們能夠提高每股收益，並且我們對 2026 年市場恢復成長仍然持樂觀態度。

With that, please turn to Slide 10, and I'll turn it back over to Alok.

請翻到投影片 10，然後我會將其交還給 Alok。

Thanks, Michael. As we reflect on this quarter, I want to acknowledge the challenges we have faced as a company and an industry. The environment has been tough with destocking higher interest rates and shifting consumer patterns, all of which have weighed on our results. However, I am confident that these headwinds are temporary. Our team has navigated this period with discipline and resilience and the actions we have taken have positioned us for a strong rebound next year.

謝謝，麥可。當我們回顧本季時，我想承認我們作為一家公司和一個行業所面臨的挑戰。環境一直很艱難，去庫存化、利率上升和消費模式轉變都對我們的業績產生了影響。然而，我相信這些不利因素只是暫時的。我們的團隊憑藉著紀律和韌性度過了這段時期，我們採取的行動為我們明年的強勁反彈做好了準備。

Looking ahead to 2026, we expect channel inventory to normalize and with the prospect of lower interest rates, both new and existing home sales should begin to recover. We are also moving past the disruption of this year's refrigerant transition.

展望 2026 年，我們預計通路庫存將恢復正常，並且隨著利率下降的前景，新房和現有房屋銷售都將開始復甦。我們也正在擺脫今年冷媒轉換帶來的混亂。

While dealers were understandably cautious due to industry-wide canister shortages and supply chain friction, we expect dealers to regain confidence as the transition-related component shortages are finally in the rear view. We are positioned to gain share through several avenues, including a renewed focus on new product introductions and contributions from joint ventures including ductless products and water heaters. Of course, we are mindful of some headwinds.

儘管由於全行業的罐短缺和供應鏈摩擦，經銷商採取謹慎態度是可以理解的，但我們預計，隨著與轉型相關的零件短缺問題最終成為過去，經銷商將重拾信心。我們準備透過多種途徑來獲得市場份額，包括重新專注於新產品的推出以及無管道產品和熱水器等合資企業的貢獻。當然，我們也注意到了一些不利因素。

As economic pressures persist, we anticipate higher demand for value-tiered products along with elevated repair activity in lieu of system replacements. As federal energy efficiency incentive sunset, they may create some additional uncertainty.

由於經濟壓力持續存在，我們預期對價值分層產品的需求將會增加，同時系統更換的維修活動也會增加。隨著聯邦能源效率激勵措施的終止，它們可能會帶來一些額外的不確定性。

However, we do not expect them to materially impact overall demand, especially as some states and utility incentive for energy efficiency are expected to continue. On the margin side, we expect mix improvement from carryover of our 454B refrigerant products, particularly in the first half of the year. In addition, we also anticipate customary annual pricing actions to offset inflation.

然而，我們預計它們不會對整體需求產生實質影響，特別是考慮到一些州和公用事業對能源效率的激勵措施預計將持續下去。在利潤方面，我們預計 454B 冷媒產品的結轉將帶來產品組合的改善，尤其是在今年上半年。此外，我們也預計每年都會採取常規定價措施來抵銷通貨膨脹。

Beyond pricing, we are driving disciplined cost productivity efforts to sustain margin resiliency. Optimization of our distribution network will lead to lower logistics costs, higher fill rates and better customer experience.

除了定價之外，我們還在推動嚴格的成本生產力努力，以維持利潤率的彈性。我們分銷網路的最佳化將降低物流成本、提高供應率並改善客戶體驗。

Targeted SG&A cost actions will streamline our processes and enhance efficiency across the organization. With our new commercial factory in Salto, now fully operational, and delivering measurable improvements, we expect additional manufacturing productivity in 2026.

有針對性的銷售、一般及行政費用行動將簡化我們的流程並提高整個組織的效率。隨著我們位於薩爾託的新商業工廠現已全面投入運作並取得顯著進步，我們預計 2026 年的製造生產力將進一步提高。

At the same time, we are making strategic investments that strengthened our foundation for future growth, including digital front-end tools that simplify how our businesses work with our dealers. Expansion of our distribution network enhances our capabilities and reach and the addition of new innovation and training centers accelerate product development and dealer loyalty. We continue to closely monitor inflation, tariffs and rising input costs across commodities, components, health care and benefits.

同時，我們正在進行策略性投資，以加強我們未來成長的基礎，包括簡化我們的業務與經銷商合作方式的數位前端工具。我們分銷網絡的擴展增強了我們的能力和影響力，而新創新和培訓中心的增加則加速了產品開發和經銷商忠誠度。我們將繼續密切關注通貨膨脹、關稅以及大宗商品、零件、醫療保健和福利等方面的投入成本的上升。

However, our disciplined cost management effective pricing and focus on operational excellence gives me confidence in our ability to navigate these pressures while sustaining margin resiliency.

然而，我們嚴格的成本管理、有效的定價以及對卓越營運的關注使我相信我們有能力應對這些壓力，同時保持利潤率的彈性。

Now let's turn to slide 11 and for why I believe Lennox outperforms the industry. As highlighted last quarter, our strategic focus has not wavered. Even with recent challenges, we continue to execute ahead of schedule on the commitments outlined in our transformation plan.

現在讓我們翻到第 11 張投影片，看看為什麼我認為 Lennox 的表現優於業界。正如上個季度所強調的那樣，我們的戰略重點並未動搖。即使最近面臨挑戰，我們仍繼續提前履行轉型計劃中概述的承諾。

Looking forward, we expect growth to accelerate supported by consistent replacement demand and initiatives across digital enablement, dockless solutions, commercial capacity and the parts and services ecosystem.

展望未來，我們預計，在持續的更換需求以及數位化支援、無樁解決方案、商業容量以及零件和服務生態系統等措施的支持下，成長將會加速。

Cost productivity has become increasingly important to maintain resilient margins, and we are achieving this without compromising growth investments. We continue to make targeted investments to elevate customer experience and product availability.

成本生產力對於維持穩定的利潤率變得越來越重要，而且我們在不損害成長投資的情況下實現了這一目標。我們將繼續進行有針對性的投資，以提升客戶體驗和產品可用性。

Simultaneously, we are scaling our digital capabilities across both product offerings and customer touch points, leveraging proprietary data and broadening our portfolio of intelligent controls. This progress is made possible by a highly talented team and a culture rooted in accountability and results. I remain confident in our strategic direction, and I'm committed to delivering sustained value for our customers, employees and shareholders.

同時，我們正在擴展產品供應和客戶接觸點的數位化能力，利用專有數據並擴大我們的智慧控制產品組合。這項進步得益於一支才華橫溢的團隊和以責任和成果為基礎的文化。我對我們的策略方向充滿信心，並致力於為我們的客戶、員工和股東提供持續的價值。

I firmly believe our best days are ahead. Thank you. We'll be happy to take your questions now. Katie, let's go to Q&A.

我堅信我們最好的日子就在前方。謝謝。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。凱蒂，我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

My first question is just a little. Can you put the residential volume declines in perspective a little bit more comment on what was the performance of one step first two step. And then if you excluded the destock, any sense for what sell-through volumes would be for resi in the quarter?

我的第一個問題只是一點點。您能否從住宅交易量下降的角度，再多評論一下第一步和第二步的表現如何。那麼，如果排除去庫存因素，那麼本季住宅的銷售量會是多少呢？

Ryan, what I can do is I'll give you some clarity. On the total sales within Q3, we saw total sales and sell-through down about 10%. And about 20% down on sell-in. So that's total sales, which would include the price-mix benefit. Alok, did you want to talk about that?

瑞安，我能做的就是給你一些解釋。在第三季的總銷售額中，我們發現總銷售額和銷售量下降了約 10%。且銷售價格下降了約 20%。這就是總銷售額，其中包括價格組合效益。Alok，你想談談這個嗎？

Yes. And I think, Ryan, one thing that's been very clear to us during this quarter, is when we look at our sales to our contractors or whom we call dealers, they also were holding inventory. And in some cases, it was more than we thought. So as we've gone around and spoken to hundreds of our contractors and dealers, we have realized they have done some destocking as well. So it's not purely as the numbers are coming through.

是的。瑞安，我認為本季我們非常清楚的一件事是，當我們查看對承包商或經銷商的銷售情況時，他們也持有庫存。在某些情況下，它比我們想像的還要多。因此，當我們走訪並與數百名承包商和經銷商交談時，我們意識到他們也進行了一些去庫存處理。所以這不只是數字的問題。

So I think there was destocking happening on both sides. But if your question is taken differently and said, what do we believe the consumer demand for this looks like? We do think it's weak impacted by interest rates impacted by housing stock that's not turning over as it used to be, and in some cases, impacted by the type of a summer we had for the past 10 summers, with the hottest summer on record for the 10 years. So I think that also impacted our relative sales.

所以我認為雙方都在進行去庫存化。但如果換個方式來理解你的問題，我們認為消費者對此的需求是什麼樣的？我們確實認為，它受到利率、房屋存量不再像以前那樣週轉的影響，在某些情況下，還受到過去 10 年夏季類型的影響，其中有 10 年來最熱的夏季。所以我認為這也影響了我們的相對銷售額。

And Ryan, I'll just add on the parts and supplies. We did see some growth on parts and supplies in our business, which suggests that there is a bit of a trend toward more of a repair of risk replaced.

瑞安，我只需添加零件和耗材。我們的業務中確實看到了零件和供應方面的一些成長，這表明修復風險的趨勢有所增強。

Right. Okay. And then my follow-up would be on fourth quarter margins. Third quarter was much better than expected, but sequentially, the margins are coming down a little more than I would have expected on sort of similar volume declines in 4Q versus 3Q. So what are some of the key assumptions there that you can unpack for us?

正確的。好的。然後我的後續關注點是第四季的利潤率。第三季的表現比預期要好得多，但與第三季相比，由於第四季的銷售下降幅度與第三季類似，因此利潤率的下降幅度比我預期的要大一些。那麼您可以為我們解釋一下其中哪些關鍵假設呢？

Sure. I think, Ryan, the biggest one is we are pulling back on manufacturing to rightsize our inventory level and that's the absorption benefit that we had in Q3 would be less as we look forward to Q4. That's probably the single largest factor, Ryan.

當然。瑞安，我認為，最大的問題是我們正在縮減製造業以調整我們的庫存水平，而展望第四季度，我們在第三季度獲得的吸收效益將會減少。這可能是最重要的因素，瑞安。

Damian Karas, UBS.

瑞銀的 Damian Karas。

So just a follow-up question, thinking about this channel inventory destocking. What's your sense on when those -- when the inventory levels will be more normalized? Is that going to happen kind of soon out than later? Or is this going to kind of be a trend that we see through the first half of next year?

所以這只是一個後續問題，想想這個通路庫存去庫存。您認為什麼時候庫存水準會更正常化？這會很快發生嗎？或者這會成為我們在明年上半年看到的趨勢？

And getting the sense that the destocking is not just kind of a two step, I think you mentioned also on the one-step side. Is the reality that like maybe some of the contractors out there just been carrying more inventory than you guys have suspected?

並且感覺到去庫存不只是兩步，我想你也提到了一步。事實是否是，有些承包商持有的庫存可能比你們預想的還要多？

Yes. I think we talked about in the past, many of our contractors rented bonds and put inventory in the barns during coat situation. Now that the supply chains have improved and our own lead times are down to one or two days, they no longer feel the need to maintain that extra bond full of inventory.

是的。我想我們過去討論過，我們的許多承包商在外套情況期間租用債券並將庫存放入穀倉。現在，供應鏈已經改善，我們自己的交貨時間已縮短至一兩天，他們不再覺得有必要維持充滿庫存的額外保管。

So these are not months of inventory that our contractors were carrying, but they were carrying a few weeks of inventory, and that destocking did take us a little bit by surprise. But I think in a way, it's testament to the improved industry lead times and just the lack of confidence they had after a weak summer selling season.

因此，我們的承包商持有的不是幾個月的庫存，而是幾週的庫存，而這種去庫存確實讓我們有點驚訝。但我認為，從某種程度上來說，這證明了行業交貨時間的改善，以及在夏季銷售旺季疲軟之後他們缺乏信心。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I wanted to ask you about the BCS segment. Obviously, that's -- you're seeing some nice trends there and relative strength. When the dust settles on 2025, where do you think you'll be in terms of the emergency replacement market share and what do you view as achievable thinking about 2026?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想問您有關 BCS 部分的問題。顯然，那是——你看到了一些良好的趨勢和相對實力。當 2025 年塵埃落定時，您認為您在緊急替換市場份額方面會處於什麼位置？您認為 2026 年可以達成什麼目標？

Yes. We're really pleased with the progress in emergency or placement. It started with the factory, getting the inventory availability, getting all deployed. So we saw significant growth nearly 100% growth on a very small base of emergency replacement in the quarter. To put it in perspective, if you look at the total BCS segment, about 5% of the revenue is emergency replacement.

是的。我們對緊急情況或安置方面的進展感到非常滿意。它從工廠開始，獲取庫存可用性，然後進行全部部署。因此，我們在本季度看到了顯著的成長，在非常小的緊急替換基礎上成長了近 100%。從這個角度來看，如果你看整個 BCS 部分，大約 5% 的收入來自緊急更換。

We see a lot more growth potential there because we didn't fully catch the full season with emergency replacements. So we're ready for next year. We've got the inventory deployed and we see multiyear growth within that channel.

我們看到那裡還有更多的成長潛力，因為我們沒有透過緊急替換來完全趕上整個季節。所以我們已經為明年做好準備了。我們已經部署了庫存，並且我們看到該渠道的多年增長。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

Really, really good job on the margin preservation. Really impressive. And Mike as well, of course. Just on the -- going back to the inventory. Obviously, your inventory levels are quite high, pretty flat Q over Q, which is very unusual.

在保證金保全方面確實做得非常好。確實令人印象深刻。當然還有麥克。只是——回到庫存。顯然，您的庫存水準相當高，Q 值與 Q 值之間相當平穩，這是非常不尋常的。

I'm just -- just want to make sure that the bulk of that would be within your captive distribution network, which seems to suggest that maybe inventory levels across the industry are still a pretty high level. So I just want to maybe just kind of double-click on that inventory number. Is it a buildup of emergency replacement inventory? Just some kind of effect it does look like we got a fair way to go here on the destock.

我只是——只是想確保其中大部分都在你們的專屬分銷網絡內，這似乎表明整個行業的庫存水平可能仍然處於相當高的水平。所以我可能只需要雙擊該庫存編號。這是緊急替換庫存的累積嗎？從某種程度上看，我們在去庫存方面確實取得了一些進展。

Yes. I think from our inventory level, it's true. It's mostly in the direct-to-contractor level. And I think we were cautious and optimistic going into the quarter. Hence, we have got more inventory than we would have liked to be.

是的。我認為從我們的庫存水準來看，確實如此。它主要處於直接面向承包商的層面。我認為我們對本季持謹慎和樂觀的態度。因此，我們的庫存比我們希望的要多。

I didn't fully answer the question that was asked in the last question as well. It's hard to predict when the destocking would be over. But if I had to guess right now, say the destocking would probably be over by Q2 of next year. So not the entire first half, but I think this is going to continue for a while, and we are preparing accordingly. And I think that's the same forecast we have for our inventory is that we'll be back to normal levels by Q2 next year.

我也沒有完全回答上一個問題中提出的問題。很難預測去庫存何時會結束。但如果現在讓我猜的話，去庫存化可能會在明年第二季結束。所以不是整個上半場，但我認為這會持續一段時間，我們正在進行相應的準備。我認為我們對庫存的預測是相同的，即到明年第二季度我們將恢復到正常水平。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just quickly on the repair versus replace dynamics. Maybe just your perspective on why now? Is it consumer confidence? Is it more around the A2L dynamics? Is it the price? All three? Any comments there would be helpful

好的。這很有幫助。然後快速討論修復與更換的動態。也許只是你現在對為什麼的看法？是消費者信心嗎？它更多地與 A2L 動態有關嗎？是價格嗎？三個都一樣嗎？任何評論都會有幫助

Clearly, by the way, this is a difficult thing to come back and give you a data-based answer. I think it is all three, but the primary reason, in our view, was the two-well conversion, our contractors and dealers, who are the one who convinced homeowner that replacement is a better economic decision in the long term, we're just hesitant to sell new products because of canister shortages and everything else that was going on.

順便說一句，顯然，這是一個很難回頭給你一個基於數據的答案的事情。我認為三者都有，但在我們看來，主要原因是雙井改造，我們的承包商和經銷商說服房主，從長遠來看，更換是更好的經濟決策，我們只是因為罐子短缺和其他正在發生的情況而猶豫是否要銷售新產品。

So they were not as effective as they normally are. There is obviously some impact of consumer confidence, which, as you know, is now in multi months low. So it will be all three, but I think the primary was just the confidence of our own dealers.

因此它們的效果不如平常那麼好。消費者信心顯然受到了一定影響，如你所知，消費者信心目前已處於數月來的低點。所以這三者都是有的，但我認為主要的還是我們自己的經銷商的信心。

And I'll just add one more on the existing home sales. Some of these homeowners have very low interest rates. They're wanting to move into new homes, but they don't want to put a whole new system investment and if the next two years interest rates come down and they can move to a new home as well.

我只想補充一點關於現有房屋銷售的情況。其中一些房主的利率非常低。他們想要搬進新家，但又不想投入整個新系統投資，如果未來兩年利率下降，他們也可以搬進新家。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。

I just wanted to start on trying to take a step back and think about what normalization means from a volume standpoint in the industry. And so when we look at resi volumes over the past number of years, it's been anywhere from kind of 8 million to 10 million units. This year is probably pacing below that 8 million.

我只是想嘗試退一步思考一下從行業數量的角度來看正常化意味著什麼。因此，當我們查看過去幾年的住宅數量時，我們發現其數量一直在 800 萬到 1000 萬套之間。今年的成長速度可能低於800萬。

But as you think about a setup for a return to normalization as we head into next year, how you think about that? And in particular, if we're still in a period of time where we've got lack of turnover in existing homes, we're waiting on interest rates, just how it all comes together to think about industry volumes for you next year.

但是，當您考慮在明年恢復正常化時，您對此有何看法？特別是，如果我們仍然處於現有房屋週轉不足的時期，我們正在等待利率，所有這些因素加在一起，就可以為您考慮明年的行業銷售。

Yes. As you know, that's been a hard thing to predict. And our goal being one of the smaller players in the HVAC industry has always been to outperform the industry no matter where the industry goes. I mean, the 8% to 10% range, as you mentioned, has been the range, and this year is abnormally low. And that we can be 100% confident as due to destocking that if you look at the actual number of units that go on the ground, I think that's obviously a higher number.

是的。如你所知，這是一件很難預測的事情。作為暖通空調產業中規模較小的企業之一，我們的目標始終是無論產業走向何方，都要超越產業。我的意思是，正如您所說，8% 到 10% 一直是這個範圍，而今年的水平異常低。我們可以 100% 確信，由於去庫存，如果你看一下實際投放的單位數量，我認為這顯然是一個更高的數字。

I would say the normal next year that we are going to be working through and we'll probably have more details when we are declaring Q4 results in January next year. We look at a number closer to a $9 million-ish to $10 million number for the industry as a normal year for 2026. But a lot more to come. We want to see how comes through. And then -- but I do think it normal is closer to $9 million to $10 million for next year.

我想說的是，明年我們將按照正常程序開展工作，明年 1 月公佈第四季度業績時我們可能會公佈更多細節。我們認為，2026 年該產業的正常收入將接近 900 萬美元至 1,000 萬美元。但未來還會有更多。我們想看看結果如何。然後——但我確實認為明年的正常水平接近 900 萬至 1000 萬美元。

Perfect. And then also just wanted to touch on pricing and how you think the industry will approach pricing moving into next year? When you think about coming out of a period with minimum efficiency and then ATL, the amount of inflation that customers have faced I think we think about a normal algorithm where maybe we're looking at list that's kind of mid-single in realization, that's sort of one to two. Are we in a place where that can repeat? Or just given the amount of price that's hit the market, is that something that could be difficult?

完美的。然後還想談談定價問題以及您認為該行業明年將如何處理定價問題？當您考慮走出效率最低的時期，然後是 ATL，客戶面臨的通貨膨脹量時，我想我們會考慮一個正常的演算法，也許我們正在查看實現中單一的列表，即一到二。我們是否處在一個可以重複這種情況的地方？或者僅僅考慮到市場價格的水平，這會是一件困難的事情嗎？

Sure. So I would first say I was pleased with the industry's pricing discipline in this year, both for A2A conversion and to offset tariffs. We saw like a uniform approach across all the key competitive players.

當然。因此，我首先要說的是，我對今年該行業的定價紀律感到滿意，無論是 A2A 轉換還是抵消關稅。我們看到所有主要競爭對手都採取了統一的方法。

So we were pleased with that. In some pockets such as residential new construction, we chose to walk away from businesses where we were losing money or were low margin and I think that's probably the one area you would see some impact for us going forward is we would not be taking negative margin businesses that is often associated with new construction.

所以我們對此感到很高興。在某些領域，例如住宅新建築，我們選擇放棄虧損或利潤率低的業務，我認為這可能是對我們未來發展產生影響的一個領域，我們不會接受通常與新建築相關的負利潤業務。

The answer to your broader question for next year, I do think we would all be looking at pricing to offset inflation. I mentioned that in my script a little bit, and I think it's going to be similar to what has happened in the past. Now keep in mind, 2026, we'll have some carryover effect both from tariff-related pricing and from A2L-related mix. But I do think 2026, you will find pricing would again offset inflation, which would probably be in the range that you were referring to earlier.

對於您關於明年的更廣泛的問題的回答，我確實認為我們都會考慮透過定價來抵消通貨膨脹。我在我的劇本中稍微提到了這一點，我認為這與過去發生的事情類似。現在請記住，到 2026 年，我們將受到與關稅相關的定價和與 A2L 相關的組合的一些延續效應。但我確實認為，到 2026 年，你會發現價格將再次抵消通貨膨脹，這可能就在你之前提到的範圍內。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just wanted to start with the sort of operating margin trajectory. So I think the guidance implies sort of flattish operating margins year on year in the fourth quarter. Wondered within that, if you could unpack maybe any sense of magnitude around how much HCS is down year on year because of that under production.

也許只是想從某種營業利潤率軌跡開始。因此，我認為該指引意味著第四季的營業利潤率同比持平。我很想知道，您是否可以估算出由於產量不足導致 HCS 同比下降的幅度。

And when we're thinking about the margin headwinds from underproduction and also from acquisition amortization, how severe or how long through next year or the next several quarters are those expected to last?

當我們考慮產量不足和收購攤銷帶來的利潤阻力時，這些阻力預計在明年或接下來的幾季持續多久？

I'll take that one, Julian. Yes, on the full year guide, we're still projecting our -- we're off to expand our profit margin expansion of about 50 basis points. And that includes some headwinds that we have with the Breeze acquisition where we're picking up revenue with zero EBIT on that.

我會接受這個，朱利安。是的，在全年指引中，我們仍然預測我們的利潤率將擴大約 50 個基點。其中包括我們在收購 Breeze 時遇到的一些阻力，我們在收購 Breeze 時獲得了收入，但息稅前利潤為零。

And within that guide of 50 basis points improvement for the segment, we have the HCS full year up slightly from a ROS expansion. BCS kind of flat and then on the corporate expense, we see them corporate gains, losses and other going from about $120 million last year, both to do the $105 million to $100 million this year. Still real pleased with the margin trajectory.

在該部門 50 個基點改善的指導範圍內，我們的 HCS 全年收入較 ROS 擴張略有上升。BCS 基本上持平，而在企業支出方面，我們看到企業收益、損失和其他支出從去年的約 1.2 億美元增加到今年的 1.05 億美元至 1 億美元。對利潤軌跡仍然非常滿意。

It implies about a 20% decremental in the fourth quarter. So -- we think that's a good guide. And then your second question for next year, we'll continue to see some absorption go through the first quarter. normally what we do in the first quarter of every year as we grow inventory by about $150 million to achieve the summer selling season. We already have that inventory.

這意味著第四季的降幅約為20%。所以——我們認為這是一個很好的指南。然後是關於明年的第二個問題，我們將繼續看到第一季出現一些吸收。通常我們每年第一季都會增加庫存約 1.5 億美元，以迎接夏季銷售旺季。我們已經有了該庫存。

So we'll see a little bit of absorption headwind in the first quarter of next year as well.

因此，明年第一季我們也會看到一些吸收阻力。

That's very helpful. And then just a second question, trying to understand on that HCS side of things. When you're looking at sort of sell out behavior. Maybe help us understand how you've seen that change in recent months. And help us understand, I suppose, how quickly you think you can get back to some kind of volume growth in the coming quarters, assuming inventory reduction takes maybe another six months.

這非常有幫助。然後是第二個問題，試圖了解 HCS 方面的事情。當你看到某種出賣行為。也許可以幫助我們了解您最近幾個月如何看待這種變化。我想，請幫助我們理解，假設庫存減少可能還需要六個月的時間，您認為未來幾季可以多快恢復某種程度的銷售成長。

Sure. I mean, I will try and tell you like things are no longer getting worse. So let's start with that. I mean, we are now at a stage where we have bounced along the bottom, and I'm starting to see some green shoots and looking at some growth going forward. And that's obviously driven by multiple factors. We have moved from air conditioning to furnace season in many of the areas where the inventory generally was low. So there's not that much destocking.

當然。我的意思是，我會盡力告訴你事情不再變得更糟。那我們就從這裡開始吧。我的意思是，我們現在正處於從底部反彈的階段，我開始看到一些復甦的跡象，並期待未來的成長。這顯然是由多種因素造成的。在許多庫存普遍較低的地區，我們已經從空調季節進入了暖氣爐季節。因此，去庫存的程度並不大。

And also, I think some of the bad news around consumer confidence, tariffs and all that's kind of coming up in the rearview mirror. So if you put that all together, we remain confident about growth next year, especially as there's destocking. I do think it will be about Q2 next year where destocking ends and we start looking at meaningful growth numbers. But net-net, I would expect 2026 to be a growth year for both the segments.

此外，我認為有關消費者信心、關稅等的一些壞消息正在逐漸顯現。所以，如果把所有這些因素綜合起來，我們仍然對明年的成長充滿信心，特別是在去庫存的情況下。我確實認為，明年第二季左右去庫存將會結束，我們開始看到有意義的成長數據。但總體而言，我預計 2026 年將是這兩個領域的成長年。

Tommy Moll, Stevens.

湯米·莫爾、史蒂文斯。

On the fourth-quarter outlook, really the implied outlook you can infer from your guidance for the HCS volumes. Is there a finer point you can give us on the direct versus 2-step expectations? It's only a quarter, but the comps there are substantially different if we just look at the performance from last year. Just so we're not surprised a quarter from now, is there anything you would frame for us in terms of the expectations there?

關於第四季度的展望，實際上您可以從對 HCS 銷售的指導中推斷出隱含的展望。您能否就直接預期與兩步驟預期給出更詳細的觀點？這只是一個季度，但如果我們只看去年的表現，那麼其表現就會有很大不同。為了讓我們對下一季的情況不感到驚訝，您能為我們提出一些期望嗎？

Tommy, I'd start by saying the our forecast in Q3 and our expectations did not turn out to be true. So it's hard for us to like give you something with a lot of confidence. We simply took our Q3 direct versus indirect and applied that to Q4. So we took a Q3 actual applied that to Q4, which would mean that, obviously, the two-step would decline more than one step. So that part is going to be true.

湯米，首先我想說的是，我們對第三季的預測和預期並沒有實現。因此，我們很難滿懷信心地向您提供某些東西。我們只是將 Q3 的直接與間接比較應用到 Q4。因此，我們將第三季的實際數據應用到了第四季度，這意味著，顯然，兩步下降幅度會超過一步。所以這部分是真的。

We do see the parts and accessories growing, growing across both. We're growing more in the two steps than in the front step and the one step where we have higher exposure to residential new construction, that seems to impact us as well because that has remained pretty weak.

我們確實看到零件和配件不斷增長。我們在這兩個步驟中的成長比在前一個步驟中的成長要快，而我們在住宅新建築方面的曝光率更高，這似乎也對我們產生了影響，因為這一步驟仍然相當薄弱。

So net-net, I mean, we essentially took our Q3 performance on one step versus two steps and applied that to Q4 as the kind of best guess we can have at this point. And so far, as we have looked at three weeks of October, I think we are right close to our expectations.

所以，我的意思是，我們基本上將第三季度的表現向前推進了一步而不是向前推進了兩步，然後將其應用到第四季度，這是我們目前可以做出的最佳猜測。到目前為止，當我們回顧十月的三週時，我認為我們已經非常接近我們的預期。

Wanted to follow up with a question on the acquisition. I know you don't want to get too specific on what the accretion might be in '26. But similar to my last question, just anything you can do to frame the art of the possible or what's reasonable here? Are we thinking low single digits just on a percentage increase for accretion in 26? Or is there anything you would do to frame expectations for us?c

想跟進有關收購的問題。我知道你不想太具體地了解 26 年的增生情況。但與我上一個問題類似，你能做些什麼來建構可能的藝術或合理的藝術呢？我們是否認為 26 年的吸積率只增加一個低個位數？或者您會做些什麼來為我們設定期望？ c

Yes, we're going through and doing a lot of the work on the final purchase price allocation. I think that's going to be a the amortization around that a big driver for next year. But overall, we do see accretion. I mean it could be somewhere to the $0.30 to $0.40 range. We have some more work to do on it, but it's great business, 25% EBITDA margins before we look at purchase price amortization, so it should be incremental from an EBITDA margin perspective as well and definitely on the top line growth accretion as well.

是的，我們正在進行大量有關最終購買價格分配的工作。我認為這將成為明年攤銷的一大推動力。但總體而言，我們確實看到了增生。我的意思是它可能在 0.30 美元到 0.40 美元的範圍內。我們還有一些工作要做，但這是一項很棒的業務，在考慮購買價格攤銷之前，EBITDA 利潤率為 25%，因此從 EBITDA 利潤率的角度來看它也應該是增量的，而且肯定也對營收成長有促進作用。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

A lot, earlier, you were talking about maybe part of the pressure this year is that the dealers' incentives maybe weren't aligned with the OEM incentives and they were pushing more repair given the supply chain challenges.

很多時候，您之前談到，今年的壓​​力可能部分在於經銷商的激勵措施可能與 OEM 激勵措施不一致，而且考慮到供應鏈的挑戰，他們正在推動更多的維修。

I guess do you think there is risk into 2026 that these incentives will remain misaligned just because as we move through the refrigerant transition and homeowners have to replace both the indoor and the outdoor unit, that delta between the repair and the replace bill is widening, which would just kind of keep that maybe misalignment in place?

我想，您是否認為到 2026 年，這些激勵措施仍將錯位，因為隨著我們經歷冷媒轉換，房主必須更換室內和室外機組，維修和更換費用之間的差額正在擴大，這可能會使這種錯位現象持續下去？

Thanks, Chris. I think the biggest cause of why our contractors did not push replacement as much as they do normally was a shortage of Canada. They were just not comfortable sell a 454B unit when they were not sure if they would have a canister and be able to top off the system as required. So they were more willing to do that. that's formally behind us at this stage.

謝謝，克里斯。我認為我們的承包商沒有像平常一樣大力推動更換的最大原因是加拿大的短缺。當他們不確定是否有罐子並且能夠根據需要補充系統時，他們就不願意出售 454B 裝置。所以他們更願意這樣做。目前，這已經正式成為過去。

There is sufficient supply of 454B canister. So I think it's less about incentives, more about just product availability and in some cases, just training. Some contractors got trained well earlier or those delayed their training to a different date and you needed tools and preparedness.

454B罐供應充足。所以我認為這與激勵無關，而與產品可用性有關，在某些情況下，只是培訓。一些承包商很早就接受了良好的培訓，或者將培訓推遲到其他日期，而您需要工具和準備。

So I think from an incentive perspective, it was less of an issue. The indoor versus outdoor thing. I mean that's kind of settled down pretty well. I mean they've all figured out how to best serve the customer at the lowest cost by being able to use older furnaces and put the sensors like RDS kits in the system. Of course, the coil is more always replaced with the outdoor unit anyway.

所以我認為從激勵的角度來看，這不是什麼大問題。室內與室外之爭。我的意思是，事情已經解決得相當好了。我的意思是，他們都已經想出瞭如何利用舊爐子並在系統中安裝 RDS 套件等感測器，以最低的成本為客戶提供最好的服務。當然，無論如何，線圈總是會隨著室外機一起更換。

So I think that's less of an issue. It's mostly was around part shortage.

所以我認為這不是什麼大問題。主要是因為零件短缺。

I appreciate that. And then I guess maybe turning to Q4 and I know this is a very difficult market to forecast. But I guess it seems like we're effectively calling for unchanged volumes in resi versus a comp that's about 10 percentage points harder in Q4 versus Q3 and the destock doesn't seem to be letting up. It seems to be going into about Q2 of next year. So obviously, better two-year stock in Q4 versus Q3, are there any positive offsets here that could keep that growth unchanged versus the more difficult comp into Q4?

我很感激。然後我想也許轉向第四季度，我知道這是一個很難預測的市場。但我想，我們實際上是在呼籲住宅交易量保持不變，而第四季度的庫存量比第三季度下降了約 10 個百分點，而且去庫存似乎沒有放緩的跡象。似乎要到明年第二季了。那麼顯然，第四季度的兩年期庫存比第三季度更好，這裡是否存在任何積極的抵消因素，可以使這種增長保持不變，而不是像第四季度那樣面臨更困難的競爭？

I think from our perspective, putting the destock thing aside, because I think all the OEMs we were caught with greater surprise and the destock was more than we expected. We do see the green shoots, right? I mean the lower interest rates and the resulting impact on mortgage rates, that's been positive. All the conversations with our customers is more optimistic these days given where the mortgage rates are trending. We also see like homebuilder confidence finally turning the corner. I mean it's still not great, but it's turning a corner.

我認為從我們的角度來看，拋開去庫存的事情，因為我認為所有的原始設備製造商都感到更加驚訝，而且去庫存的程度超出了我們的預期。我們確實看到了復甦的跡象，對嗎？我的意思是，較低的利率及其對抵押貸款利率的影響是正面的。考慮到抵押貸款利率的趨勢，我們最近與客戶的所有對話都更加樂觀。我們也看到房屋建築商的信心終於出現轉機。我的意思是，情況仍然不是很好，但正在好轉。

I expect new home sales to maybe languish, but existing home sales to pick up from next year. So we see those. And I think finally, when a lot of units got repaired instead of replace all they did is tag on a year or 2 to the life of the unit, and that creates a pent-up demand situation, which will start coming loose as well. So net-net, that's what gives us confidence being a growth year despite all the factors that we talked about earlier.

我預計新房銷售可能會低迷，但現有房屋銷售將從明年開始回升。所以我們看到了這些。我認為，最終，當許多設備得到維修而不是更換時，他們所做的就是將設備的使用壽命延長一兩年，這就造成了一種被壓抑的需求局面，而這種局面也會開始鬆動。因此，儘管存在我們之前討論過的所有因素，但總體而言，這讓我們對今年的成長充滿信心。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞·凱伊，奧本海默。

I guess on the 2026 early thinking, you highlighted meaningful JV growth from Samsung. Can you dimension what meaningful would look like? Is that a point or two of growth top line?

我想，在 2026 年的早期思考中，您強調了三星的合資企業有意義的成長。你能衡量一下有意義的東西是什麼樣子的嗎？這是營收成長的一兩個點嗎？

As you know, we launched the product this year. We still spend a majority of the year selling the old 410a product, and we were faced with inventory shortages in that. So this year is going to be sort of neutral compared to the previous year on that category. Over the long term, which we've talked about, I mean, I expect that to add like a point or so of growth every year for the next multiple years. And I think 2026 would be the first year where we would have a full portfolio and launch it.

如您所知，我們今年推出了該產品。我們一年中的大部分時間仍然在銷售舊的 410a 產品，因此我們面臨庫存短缺的問題。因此，與去年相比，今年該類別的情況將比較中性。從長遠來看，正如我們所討論的，我預計未來幾年每年都會增加一個點左右的成長。我認為 2026 年將是我們擁有完整產品組合併推出的第一年。

So I think that's kind of the range I would look at is 0.5 point to 1 point of growth Samsung JV, Ariston JV adds value only in 2027 in a meaningful way, but it's going to get some growth next year because that's when the product will be launched. Michael, what would you add to that?

所以我認為我所關注的範圍是三星合資企業和阿里斯頓合資企業的成長 0.5 到 1 個百分點，它們在 2027 年才會以有意義的方式增加價值，但明年將會獲得一些成長，因為那時產品將會推出。邁克爾，你對此還有什麼補充嗎？

I can just add within the HCS segment. The Ductless product represents about 2% of our sales. But if you look at the industry, ductless is closer to 10%. So we have a multiyear benefit here within the ductless product. And we saw growth in our Samsung products for the first quarter, the first time in Q3.

我可以在 HCS 段內新增。無管道產品約占我們銷售額的 2%。但如果你看一下這個行業，無管道的比例接近 10%。因此，我們在無管道產品方面擁有多年的優勢。我們在第一季看到了三星產品的成長，這是第三季的首次成長。

So really pleased with our progress and the sales force is really pleased with the progress on selling that with the customers really appreciating the brand name. And then you also indicated rationalizing the low-margin RNC accounts, which seems prudent.

我們對我們的進步感到非常高興，銷售人員也對銷售的進步感到非常高興，因為客戶確實欣賞這個品牌。然後您也表示要合理化低利潤的 RNC 帳戶，這似乎是謹慎的做法。

But know that it's about typically 25% or so of sales, RNC total. Can you help us understand or dimensionalize what level within that we'd be talking about in terms of a tier of low-margin accounts. Is this like the lowest 10% or so. I was just trying to understand what kind of a headwind that could be for next year.

但要知道，這通常佔 RNC 總銷售額的 25% 左右。您能否幫助我們理解或具體化我們所討論的低利潤帳戶層級中的哪個層級？這是最低的 10% 左右嗎？我只是想了解明年會面臨什麼樣的不利因素。

Yes. I think the lowest 10% to 15% is a good way to think about it. I mean we were overweight on RNC compared to the industry, especially when it came to the one-step model. So I think first of all, we don't give up any account easily. We only give up and we feel like we are taping dollar bills to every outgoing box.

是的。我認為最低的 10% 到 15% 是一個很好的思考方式。我的意思是，與業界相比，我們在 RNC 上的投入過大，尤其是在單步模型方面。所以我認為首先我們不會輕易放棄任何一個帳戶。我們只會放棄，感覺就像把美元鈔票貼在每一個發出去的箱子上。

So those are not easy decisions for us, but I think 10% to 15% of RNC volume over multiple months is the way to think about it. This would be margin accretive.

所以這些對我們來說都不是容易的決定，但我認為幾個月內 RNC 交易量的 10% 到 15% 是可以考慮的方式。這將增加利潤。

Okay. So you said over multiple months or years? I just want to clarify.

好的。所以您說的是幾個月或幾年？我只是想澄清一下。

Multiple months.

數月。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

Jeff Sprague，垂直研究。

Maybe just wanted to come back to channel and inventory, maybe one last time, maybe somebody behind me have another one. But it just looks to me you overproduced in Q3, right? It was -- it sounds like it was unintentional, things kind of really dropped off.

也許只是想回到渠道和庫存，也許是最後一次，也許我身後的某個人還有另一個。但在我看來，你們在第三季生產過剩了，對嗎？這聽起來像是無意的，事情真的變得糟糕了。

But if you're looking at kind of this hangover lasting into the first half of next year, is there not scope to more severely cut production in Q4 and just clear this up more quickly? Or are you just kind of facing labor retention or other issues that maybe are not popping to mine, but it just seems to me like you could take it down a lot harder in Q4 than what's implied in the guide and just really set up 2026 instead of have -- having this lingering issue through the first half?

但是，如果您認為這種後遺症會持續到明年上半年，那麼是否有可能在第四季度進一步大幅削減產量，從而更快地解決這個問題？或者您只是面臨勞動力保留或其他問題，這些問題可能沒有引起我的興趣，但在我看來，您可以在第四季度將其降低得比指南中暗示的要困難得多，並且真正設定 2026 年的目標，而不是在上半年一直存在這個揮之不去的問題？

Yes. No, Jeff, that's a good question and a good observation. I think the issue is more around the mix of the products because in as you know, most of our production and sales plans are switching to watch furnaces. We ramp up air conditioning back on in Q1 again. So I think we have done balanced job with fairly aggressive actions.

是的。不，傑夫，這是一個很好的問題，也是一個很好的觀察。我認為問題更在於產品組合，因為如您所知，我們的大部分生產和銷售計劃都轉向了監視器。我們在第一季再次加大了空調的投資。所以我認為我們透過相當積極的行動完成了平衡的工作。

I mean, our head count across factories is down by more than 1,000 people. And if you look at some of the warn notices, in fact, we have ratcheted back pretty fast. But at the same time, if we go any further, we believe it will crimp our ability to restart production next year. So I think by Q2 and Q1, when we are heavy production months will just go slower at that point. Net-net, by the end of Q2 will be back to normal level.

我的意思是，我們各工廠的員工人數減少了 1,000 多人。事實上，如果你看一些警告通知，你會發現我們已經撤退得相當快了。但同時，如果我們進一步採取進一步行動，我們相信這將影響我們明年重新開始生產的能力。因此我認為，到第二季度和第一季度，當我們產量增加時，生產速度就會變慢。總體而言，到第二季末將恢復到正常水準。

So we think that's just a better approach to make sure we don't face challenges that Lennox has faced in the past where we couldn't ramp up in time.

因此，我們認為這只是一種更好的方法，以確保我們不會面臨 Lennox 過去面臨的無法及時應對的挑戰。

Yes. No, that makes sense. And then just thinking about your comment about the value tier. I think the value tier has shrunk over the years, right, as the [CR] levels have moved up and up and up. But how big is that here for you now in 2025, like how much of your business would you characterize as operating in kind of the lowest possible price point in your portfolio?

是的。不，這很有道理。然後思考一下您對價值層的評論。我認為這些年來價值層級已經縮小了，因為 [CR] 水平已經不斷上升。但是，到 2025 年，這對您來說有多大意義，例如，您認為您的投資組合中有多少業務是以最低價格點運營的？

So if you think about the overall portfolio, 70% of the business now is what we call the lowest C. And that's not the way we think about the value tier though. So value tier would be within the lowest CR, what's a value product with no bells and whistle, limited warranty, cages versus casing across all the outdoor units.

因此，如果你考慮整體投資組合，現在 70% 的業務都是我們所謂的最低 C。但這並不是我們對價值層級的看法。因此，價值層級應位於最低 CR 內，沒有花俏功能、有限保固、所有室外機都採用籠子而非外殼的價值產品是什麼。

And I think that's up probably in the 10% to 20% range, and we expect it to remain in that range as like other products with better warranty, better controls continue to be the majority of the business. But that business, we even taking from 10% to 20%, there's a trend that we are prepared for, and we want to make sure we address it appropriately.

我認為這個數字可能會在 10% 到 20% 的範圍內，我們預計它將保持在這個範圍內，因為與其他具有更好的保固、更好的控制的產品一樣，仍然是業務的主要部分。但即使我們把這個業務從 10% 提高到 20%，我們也已經為這種趨勢做好了準備，我們希望確保我們能妥善處理它。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

So yes, so sorry to disappoint, Jeff, but I did want to ask another question on inventories. So just thinking about this quantifying the fact that your inventories are up roughly $300 million year-over-year. And the sales growth for the company is going to be, let's just call it roughly flattish, down modestly. How do I think about like what the -- what is kind of like the right size of inventories heading into 2026?

是的，很抱歉讓您失望了，傑夫，但我確實想問另一個關於庫存的問題。因此，只要量化這一事實，您的庫存就會比去年同期增加約 3 億美元。公司的銷售額成長將會大致持平，略有下降。我該如何思考——到 2026 年，庫存的適當規模是多少？

And then, I guess, really just my follow-on question is more of a clarification for Michael. I heard you say 20% decrementals in the fourth quarter. Was that for the entire business? Was that for HCS. And then how do we think about the decrementals in HCS as you're continuing to wind down inventories through the beginning part of next year?

然後，我想，我的後續問題實際上更多的是為了向邁克爾澄清一下。我聽說您說第四季的減幅為 20%。這是針對整個業務的嗎？那是針對 HCS 的嗎？那麼，當您在明年年初繼續減少庫存時，我們如何看待 HCS 中的遞減？

Sure, I'll answer that one first. Yes, the 20% decremental was the entire business within the fourth quarter. So it's a little bit more decremental on the HCS side, also because the absorption impact there will be more than the BCS side.

當然，我先回答這個問題。是的，20%的降幅是第四季整個業務的降幅。因此，HCS 方面的遞減幅度會更大一些，因為那裡的吸收影響會比 BCS 方面更大。

And I think on the inventory question, first of all, we acknowledge that our inventory is higher than where we expected and wanted. So let me just acknowledge that part. If we look at the $300 million or so number that you came, I think it's about $150 million to $200 million is what we want to bring down.

我認為關於庫存問題，首先，我們承認我們的庫存高於我們的預期和要求。因此，我只想承認這一部分。如果我們看一下您提到的 3 億美元左右的數字，我認為我們想要將其降至 1.5 億至 2 億美元左右。

The other is a result of just like in our investment trying to get into emergency replacement, making sure our fill rate is higher, and that's the number we expect to normalize by Q2 next year. So I think you kind of break it up into two-thirds, one-third of the [$300 million] number.

另一個原因是，就像我們的投資試圖進入緊急替換領域一樣，確保我們的填充率更高，而這正是我們預計明年第二季正常化的數字。所以我認為你可以把它分成三分之二，也就是 3 億美元這個數字的三分之一。

Okay. That's helpful. And I guess just as part of the multipart question I asked, I guess, as you're thinking about decremental margins and as you're bringing down your inventory, is there an appropriate way for us to think about that within HCS in the first half of the year?

好的。這很有幫助。我想，這只是我提出的多部分問題的一部分，當您考慮減少利潤率並減少庫存時，我們是否有合適的方式在上半年在 HCS 內部考慮這個問題？

I would say first half usually as the opposite has a benefit of production. But at the same time, we are structurally at a lower cost situation because of all the changes we have made but like as we finish Q4 and we come back in January, we can give you a lot more color at that point with a lot more confidence. Right now, everything has just got too many error bars or any of the numbers I'll give you.

我通常會說前半部分，因為相反的方面具有生產優勢。但同時，由於我們所做的所有改變，我們在結構上處於較低的成本狀況，但就像我們完成第四季度並在一月份回來一樣，我們可以在那時以更大的信心為您提供更多的色彩。現在，所有事物都有太多的誤差線或我給你的任何數字。

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Jeff Hammond。

Maybe just to start with price. I mean, I think the last five years, the price increases, the levels between COVID regulatory changes have been pretty high popping. Now we're kind of finally seeing this kind of consumer tightening, shift to value or pair of play. So I'm just wondering when you think -- if at all, the industry kind of starts to think about price elasticity more and taking a breather from pricing actions.

也許只是從價格開始。我的意思是，我認為過去五年，價格上漲，以及 COVID 監管變化之間的水平一直很高。現在我們終於看到了這種消費緊縮、轉向價值或成對遊戲的趨勢。所以我只是想知道，當您認為——如果有的話，行業是否會開始更多地考慮價格彈性，並從定價行動中稍事休息。

Yes, Jeff, I mean that's a fair point. If you look at over the past four, five years, if the price from OEM to the channel has gone up 40%, the price from the channel to the consumer, in some cases, has gone up 100% to 200%.

是的，傑夫，我的意思是這是一個公平的觀點。如果你回顧過去四、五年，如果從 OEM 到通路的價格上漲了 40%，那麼從通路到消費者的價格在某些情況下會上漲 100% 到 200%。

So as we look at where the pricing pressure is going to be, it's going to be more between the consumer and the channel, less so between OEM and the channel. And we are seeing consumers getting multiple courts during COVID, they're very happy, one contractor came in and gave them one quote, and they would go with that.

因此，當我們檢視定價壓力時，我們發現，定價壓力更多地存在於消費者和通路之間，而原始設備製造商和通路之間的壓力則較小。我們看到消費者在疫情期間獲得了多個球場，他們非常高興，一個承包商進來給他們一個報價，他們就會接受。

Today, consumers are definitely getting more courts than they were getting last year. And often, it's about three courts versus the one core that I was referring in COVID. So I think that's where you're going to see some price adjustments that will need to happen on the installation of the consumer price. Keep in mind, the OEM price has gone up much, much less than the price that the consumer is paying today.

如今，消費者獲得的球場數量肯定比去年多。通常，這是關於三個球場與我在 COVID 中提到的一個核心球場的對抗。所以我認為你將會看到一些在消費者價格安裝過程中需要進行的價格調整。請記住，OEM 價格的漲幅遠低於消費者今天支付的價格。

Okay. That's helpful. Just on the '26 moving pieces, I'm just wondering if you can put any kind of quantification or numbers around just the commercial plant getting to full efficiency all the transition R4 transition noise like what is the delta on that '25 to '26 seems like a pretty big tailwind.

好的。這很有幫助。就 26 年的活動部件而言，我只是想知道您是否可以提供任何類型的量化或數字，圍繞商業工廠達到完全效率的所有過渡 R4 過渡噪音，例如 25 年到 26 年之間的增量似乎是一個相當大的順風。

It's going to be a good tailwind. I mean, first of all, we talked about having $10 million in productivity from like the new Saltillo plant and avoid the bad news, and we delivered that. So I think we are pleased to say that we are on track to deliver that productivity. I think that continues going into next year we have to balance it out with any absorption impact and we'll give you greater color next year.

這將是一股良好的順風。我的意思是，首先，我們談到了從新的薩爾蒂約工廠獲得 1000 萬美元的生產力並避免壞消息，我們實現了這一目標。因此，我認為我們可以很高興地說，我們正朝著實現這項生產力的目標邁進。我認為這種情況會持續到明年，我們必須平衡任何吸收影響，明年我們會為你帶來更精彩的色彩。

But I mean we do historically, we've always talked about $20 million to $30 million in productivity with MCR and other factors. And I think next year is going to look more normal versus the past recent year. We were there too many moving pieces.

但我的意思是，從歷史上看，我們一直在談論將 MCR 和其他因素考慮在內，實現 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元的生產力。我認為明年的情況將比去年更正常。我們那裡有太多移動的部分。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

I was hoping you could help us understand the magnitude of the free cash flow guidance cut. That implies a pretty low 70% conversion. Is this all the destocking, higher finished goods? Is there anything else going on there that you can share?

我希望您能幫助我們了解自由現金流指導削減的幅度。這意味著轉換率只有相當低的 70%。這都是去庫存、成品價格上漲的結果嗎？還有其他事情可以分享嗎？

No, it's all destocking. I think we cut it by about $150 million compared to the previous number, and that's our finished good inventory, and we expect to recover all of that by next year. And as you know, I mean, our depreciation has been lower than our CapEx for the past few years. And I think that continues as we have invested more in the business.

不，這都是去庫存。我認為與之前的數字相比，我們削減了約 1.5 億美元，這是我們的成品庫存，我們預計明年可以收回所有庫存。如你所知，過去幾年我們的折舊率一直低於資本支出。我認為，隨著我們在業務上投入更多，這種情況還會持續下去。

Great. I appreciate that. And then on the new factory, you said it's fully operational. So what kind of efficiencies are you expecting to be realized in 2026? And maybe just kind of give us some examples.

偉大的。我很感激。然後關於新工廠，您說它已經全面投入運作。那麼您預計 2026 年將達到什麼樣的效率呢？也許只是給我們舉一些例子。

Sure. So I think there are two specific things that I'd point out to, right? One is we had start-up inefficiencies all through the first half of this year. We won't have that.

當然。所以我認為有兩件具體的事情需要指出，對嗎？一是今年上半年我們的啟動效率較低。我們不會有這樣的事。

So I think that's part of it, what you're going to see immediately. There were transfer costs, especially in of 2025, where we had talked about and we had some moves go wrong and we had taken some hits to a margin -- significant hit to our BCS margin in Q1 because of that.

所以我認為這就是其中的一部分，你們馬上就會看到。存在轉移成本，特別是在 2025 年，我們曾討論過，我們的一些舉措出了問題，我們的利潤受到了一些打擊——因此，我們第一季的 BCS 利潤率受到了重大打擊。

And then finally, keep in mind that the labor arbitrage that we get by making these products in Saltillo versus making them in Stuttgart that's going to add to as well. So one whole bucket start-up inefficiency and others just a labor arbitrage.

最後，請記住，我們在薩爾蒂約生產這些產品與在斯圖加特生產這些產品相比，所獲得的勞動力套利也會增加。因此，一整桶的啟動效率低下，而其他的只是勞動力套利。

And I'll just add to that. It's taking some pressure off the existing factory in stuck in Arkansas, which is helping drive some efficiencies there as well.

我只想補充一點。這減輕了阿肯色州現有工廠的壓力，也有助於提高那裡的效率。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Can you just maybe help like quantify what you think the over absorption benefit was? I mean, you said you're going to get some under absorption, but any kind of like rough math, I would assume it's in the kind of tens of millions, but there's kind of a wide range on how that calculation could be kind of complex. So maybe just a bit of help on that front.

您能否幫助量化您認為過度吸收的好處？我的意思是，你說你會得到一些吸收量，但任何粗略的數學計算，我都會假設它是數千萬左右，但這種計算的範圍很廣，可能有點複雜。因此也許在這方面能提供一點幫助。

Yes. So within Q3, there really wasn't an absorption kind of benefit or hit the fourth quarter where we're going to see an impact. And if you think about our cost of goods sold, about 15% to 20% of our cost of goods sold are factory cost. So you can kind of do some math there to figure out depending on how much we're going to reduce down the factory to the normalize inventory. It will have an impact within the fourth quarter.

是的。因此，在第三季度，實際上並沒有出現吸收效益，到了第四季我們也不會看到影響。如果你考慮我們的銷售成本，你會發現大約 15% 到 20% 的銷售成本是工廠成本。因此，您可以進行一些數學計算，以確定我們要減少工廠多少庫存來實現正常化。這將在第四季度產生影響。

Okay. But I mean, you don't get a benefit from kind of overproducing though and putting that cost in inventory?

好的。但我的意思是，過度生產並將成本投入庫存不會為你帶來好處嗎？

No. I think in the beginning of Q3, we had higher production, and we did ramp it down substantially towards the second half of Q3. So I think Q3, I would call it neutral. Q4 is when we see the full hit most of the inventory growth was by the second quarter.

不。我認為在第三季初，我們的產量較高，但在第三季後半段，我們的產量確實大幅下降。所以我認為 Q3，我會稱之為中立。我們看到第四季庫存成長達到頂峰，大部分庫存成長都發生在第二季。

Okay. That makes sense. Are you guys seeing any in the channel? I mean, there are some online pricing stats that look relatively weak. I mean are you seeing real anybody kind of get out of line from a price competition perspective here? I mean you guys are not chasing the low-margin R&C business, I guess, anywhere else where you're seeing competitors try and pick away from a market share perspective?

好的。這很有道理。你們在頻道裡看到什麼了嗎？我的意思是，一些線上定價統計數據看起來相對較弱。我的意思是，從價格競爭的角度來看，您是否看到有人真正違反了規定？我的意思是，你們並沒有追逐低利潤的研發和製造業務，我想，在其他地方，你們是否看到競爭對手試圖從市場份額的角度搶佔市場份額？

I mean the industry remains competitive. I mean we see account by account, battle everywhere. But in general, all OEMs have maintained the pricing that we got to pricing due to tariff and we think that continues. A lot of the online and scurmishes all again between the contractor and the consumer, less so between the OEM and the contractor. So no change in any behavior that we can call out besides the low-margin R&C business that I called out earlier.

我的意思是這個行業仍然具有競爭力。我的意思是，我們看到一個又一個的事件，到處都有戰鬥。但總體而言，所有 OEM 都維持了我們因關稅而獲得的定價，我們認為這種情況會持續下去。許多網路上的爭吵又發生在承包商和消費者之間，而 OEM 和承包商之間的爭吵則較少。因此，除了我之前提到的低利潤率的研發和製造業務之外，我們可以指出的任何行為都沒有改變。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

瑞穗的布雷特‧林澤 (Brett Linzey)。

I wanted to follow up on free cash flow. Obviously, a lot of moving pieces this year with the regulatory transition and the ramp on emergency, but it sounds like that normalizes next year, but you also do have potentially some load-in from NSI as you move through the one step. So hoping you could maybe frame some of those moving pieces in the next year and what the conversion could look like?

我想追蹤自由現金流。顯然，今年隨著監管轉型和緊急情況的增加，有很多事情會發生變動，但聽起來明年這種情況會恢復正常，但隨著你邁出這一步，你也有可能從 NSI 獲得一些負載。所以希望您能在明年構思出一些移動的部分，並看看轉換會是什麼樣子？

Yes. We expect good conversion next year. I mean NSI will sort of clearly call out, but NSI, we are getting it at a fairly healthy or even better than healthy level of inventory. So I don't expect any specifically load-in impact of NSI. If anything, I think once we get through all the accounting and intangible amortization and inventory step-up expect NSI to convert free cash at a pretty high level. So I think the biggest impact would be reduction in finished goods inventory level. So whatever we reduced this year would be again next year?

是的。我們預計明年的轉換率會很好。我的意思是 NSI 會明確地指出，但是 NSI，我們的庫存水平相當健康，甚至比健康水平還要好。所以我預計 NSI 不會對加載產生任何特別的影響。如果有的話，我認為一旦我們完成所有的會計和無形資產攤銷和庫存提升，預計 NSI 將在相當高的水平上轉換自由現金。所以我認為最大的影響是成品庫存水準的降低。那麼，我們今年減少的部分明年還會繼續減少嗎？

Understood. Just one more on resi and I'm looking to maybe drill down on the magnitude and the scope of the consumer trade down. And I guess in the context of regional variances or any correlation to regions that maybe had cooler weather conditions as a determinant for the repair decision? Or was it fairly broad-based on this trade down that we're seeing?

明白了。關於 resi 還有一個問題，我希望深入研究消費者降級的程度和範圍。我猜想，在區域差異或與可能具有較涼爽天氣條件的區域之間的任何關聯性背景下，修復決策是否是決定性因素？或者說，我們看到的這種貿易下滑是否有相當廣泛的基礎？

We saw more of that in the Northeast, and I'm not sure if it's related to the weather pattern, I think it's probably more related to just different states of the economy. We don't see as much of that in the southern states because that's where -- I mean, air conditioning is just super important and people know that this thing will break versus in other areas, they might look at that. So I wouldn't say the specific regional trend. Also, I mean, as you know, all of this is a bit of a guesswork and based on anecdotal data.

我們在東北地區看到了更多這樣的情況，我不確定這是否與天氣模式有關，我認為這可能與不同的經濟狀況有關。我們在南部各州沒有看到太多這樣的情況，因為在那裡——我的意思是，空調非常重要，人們知道這個東西會壞，而在其他地區，他們可能會注意這一點。所以我不會說出具體的區域趨勢。另外，我的意思是，如你所知，所有這些都只是猜測，並且基於軼事數據。

There's no scientific data that's available. But what we have seen is increase in spare parts sales increase in our coil sales, which is typically used for replacement. And I think that's how we put this hypothesis together. We do think a lot of that turns around next year when the canister availability is no longer an issue, our contractors are fully trained on R454B. And I think with lower interest and consumer confidence will also help.

沒有可用的科學數據。但我們看到的是備件銷售額的成長以及線圈銷售額的增加，這些線圈通常用於更換。我想這就是我們提出這個假設的方式。我們確實認為，明年情況會有很大轉變，屆時，碳罐的供應將不再是問題，我們的承包商也將接受 R454B 的全面培訓。我認為降低利率和消費者信心也會有所幫助。

Thank you for joining us today. Since there are no further questions, this concludes Lennox 2025 third-quarter conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

感謝您今天加入我們。由於沒有其他問題，Lennox 2025 第三季電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。