Lennox International Inc (LII) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Lennox fourth quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to Chelsey Pulcheon from Lennox Investor Relations. Chelsey, please go ahead.

Thank you, Madison. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us as we share our 2025 fourth quarter and full year results. Joining me today is CEO, Alok Maskara; and CFO, Michael Quenzer. Each will share their prepared remarks before we move to the Q&A session.

Turning to slide 2. A reminder that during today's call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as outlined on this page. We may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that management considers relevant indicators of underlying business performance. Please refer to our SEC filings available on our Investor Relations website for additional details, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures.

Please note that the results being presented today reflects the FIFO accounting method adopted by the company as of Q4 2025. The rationale and the financial impact of the change are summarized on slides 15 through 18 in the appendix. The earnings release, today's presentation, and the webcast archive link for today's call are available on our Investor Relations website at investor.lennox.com.

Now, please turn to slide 3 as I turn the call over to our CEO, Alok Maskara.

Thank you, Chelsey. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased with how our team executed throughout 2025, especially given the level of disruption the industry face. It was a year marked by regulatory changes, softer demand, and broad market headwinds, yet the team remained resilient and delivered solid results.

Most notably, we achieved full year margins above 20% for the first time in our history. This meaningful milestone reflects the structural improvements we have made in our production and operational efficiency. I'm grateful for the continued support of our dealers, distributors, and contractors whose partnership played an important role in helping us navigate such a difficult year. Their loyalty, along with them with our team's commitment to excellence continues to create value for our shareholders.

Let's turn to slide 3 for an overview of our fourth quarter and full year financials. Revenue was down 11% in the quarter due to weak residential and commercial end markets. The impact was further amplified by deeper channel destocking and soft residential new construction activity. Our segment margin was 17.7% in the quarter, driven by volume declines and expected absorption headwinds. Operating cash flow was $406 million; adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $4.45.

Full year revenue was down 3%, driven by volume headwinds from destocking and softer end markets. However, the team still delivered a record 20.4% segment margin despite tariff impact and other inflationary pressures. Operating cash flow was $758 million down from last year due to temporarily inflated inventory levels. Overall, 2025 was a complex and challenging year, and I'm proud of the team delivering $23.16 in adjusted earnings per share. This is 2% higher versus last year's comparable $22.70.

Now, let's turn to slide 4 for an overview of end market conditions. 2025 was an eventful year for the North America HVC industry and Lennox. We safely and timely converted our product portfolio to meet the low GWP requirement. However, the industry volume for residential products declined significantly, primarily impacted by channel destocking. The situation was further complicated with low dealer and consumer confidence and the lack of housing recovery.

On the commercial side, we fully ramped our emergency replacement growth initiative in several metro regions, while the light commercial HVC industry declined for 17th consecutive month by December 2025. We are cautiously optimistic that the industry backdrop is going to shift favorably in 2026 as one-step channel destocking is nearly complete, and two-step channel destocking is anticipated to be complete in the second quarter of this year.

In addition, unique challenges from 2025, such as the canister shortages have been addressed and we expect housing to improve given lower market interest rates. Our internal growth initiatives such as parts and services growth, commercial emergency replacement coverage, and Ducales product penetration are also expected to accelerate our growth this year.

Now, let us turn to slide 5 to review our investments that support our strategy of delivering differentiated performance. Our confidence in the outlook is reinforced by the strategic investment made over the past several years. Since 2022, we have deployed an incremental $300 million to broaden our capabilities, streamline our operations, and strengthen our competitive position. These investments are now embedded in how we run the business and are reflected in our financial statements. At the same time, the benefits they unlock are only building to materialize and will continue to build as we move forward.

We focus first on elevating front-end excellence to create a more efficient and responsive operating model. As part of this effort, we have expanded and reorganize sales team to ensure alignment around pricing and improved coordination across the organization. This approach gives our teams clearer priorities and strengthens the connection between how we engage with customers and how we generate profitable growth.

We also expanded our portfolio through joint ventures that increase our share of wallet and allow us to offer more comprehensive solutions to customers. In addition, our AI-enabled tools and upgraded e-commerce platform are making it easier to do business with Lennox by improving our dealers' quote, order, and receive support.

Operationally, we have made meaningful progress. Our expanded distribution facilities enable a hub-and-spoke network designed to improve speed, reliability, and fill rate. We enhanced this with new IT systems for warehouse and transport management that reinforce network productivity and MC.

On the manufacturing side, we doubled the square footage dedicated to our commercial operations, completed a major product redesign to meet regulatory requirements and continue to advance our heat portfolio for long-term electrification trends.

Looking ahead, we will continue to invest strategically to support future growth. In 2026, we will add new customer training and engagement centers and build our digital tech stack to enhance customer experience. We will also invest in automation across our existing labs, very new test chambers to in-source certification, and expand our engineering capabilities through new R&D centers. We anticipate these investments will carry attractive returns, expedite innovation, and improve customer support.

In summary, Lennox is positioned to respond with agility as demand recovers while continuing to accelerate growth and improve margins well into the future.

With that, I will turn it over to Michael to review our 2025 financial results and 2026 guidance.

Thank you, Alok. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 6. As Chelsey mentioned, we updated our 2024 and September year-to-date results to reflect the change from LIFO to FIFO inventory accounting. The appendix includes quarterly adjustments for both 2024 and 2025.

Overall, adoption FIFO increased our 2024 full year EPS by approximately $0.12 and raised EPS for the first three quarters of 2025 by approximately $0.55. Full year 2025 EPS impact was approximately $1.

We've also included a page in the appendix outlined the rationale for this change, which is driven by three key benefits. First, FIFO simplifies our accounting processes by eliminating the truck detailed held inventory layers; second, it aligns cost increases more closely with the timing of price realization; third, FIFO is the predominant method used by industry peers and better reflects the physical flow of goods.

Moving to our quarterly results. Overall performance can be attributed to ongoing destocking, softer-than-expected residential end markets, along with better cost productivity in response to inflation. We continue to execute well on price cost and expense management. This helped EBIT decline to 16% despite a [23%] (technical difficulty) -- resulting in a [$90 million] SG&A reduction partially offset the higher product costs.

Please turn to slide 8 for an overview of the Building Climate Solutions segment. BCS delivered another strong quarter with organic sales growth in down markets and continued margin expansion. Revenue grew 8% as favorable mix and pricing actions offset lower organic sales volumes. The completed acquisition contributed approximately 7% revenue growth.

Light commercial industry shipments remain below normal levels, with strong execution in emergency replacement in national accounts loaded organic volume declines to mid-single digits. Like HCS, product cost headwinds reflected absorption pressure and the timing of inflation expense recognition under pipe.

With that, let's move to slide 9 to review the full year performance for Lennox. Overall, 2025 was a challenging year from an end market standpoint with channel destocking, R-454B canister shortages slowing new system adoption, and tariff driven inflation. Despite these headwinds, we executed well. We expanded profit margins to a record 20.4% and delivered more than $75 million in cost productivity while continuing to invest in long-term growth.

Please turn to slide 10 for cash flow and capital deployment. Free cash flow for 2025 was $640 million, above our prior guidance of $550 million. The team is focused on strong collections and disciplined payments helped partially offset temporary elevated inventory levels. FIFO inventory levels decreased by $300 million compared to December 2024, partially to support key growth initiatives in commercial emergency replacement, Samsung ductless products, and improved equipment fulfillment.

We also have about $200 million more inventory than is seasonally typical which will remain slightly elevated in the first quarter, but it's aligned to meet second quarter peak demand. This inventory management strategy will create some additional absorption headwinds in the first quarter but minimizes the disruption on our factory employees and suppliers.

During 2025, we repurchased $482 million of shares and deployed $545 million on bolt-on acquisitions and joint venture investments, all supported by a strong balance sheet that continues to enable repurchases, disciplined M&A and healthy leverage profile. Alongside these actions, we also invested $120 million in capital expenditures during 2025 to advance key strategic priorities.

Looking ahead to 2026, we plan to invest $250 million in capital expenditures, targeting strong turn opportunities across innovation and training centers, digital technology, distribution network optimization, ERP modernization, and AI tools.

Please turn to slide 7 as our review of our 2026 guidance. We are initiating our full year 2026 guidance, which reflects stabilized end markets, normalized channel inventories and contributions from recent acquisitions and joint venture investments.

For revenue, we expect total company growth of 6% to 7%. Organic volumes are expected to be down low single digits, net of approximately 1 point of growth from initiatives across parts and accessories, commercial emergency replacement as well as Samsung ductless inducted heat pump products. Sales volumes in the first half, especially the first quarter expected to be down more than the full year decline followed by growth in the second half.

Combined price and mix are expected to contribute mid-single-digit growth driven by our 2026 price increase and carryover benefit from 2025 regulatory mix. M&A is expected to contribute mid-single-digit revenue growth, reflecting the full year benefit of recent acquisitions and joint ventures.

At the segment level, we expect approximately 2% growth in reflecting down but improving end markets and a low single-digit contribution from M&A. For BCS, we expect approximately 15% growth supported by industry shipments returning to growth, strong emergency replacement in national account performance, and a high single-digit contribution from M&A.

On costs, inflation is expected to be up approximately 2.5%, reflecting tariff carryover and moderating price cost pressure. We plan to invest approximately $35 million in additional operating expenses to enhance our customer experience, ERP upgrades for recent acquisitions, and continued expansion of our training and innovation centers. M&A-related amortization is expected to increase by approximately $15 million.

Productivity and cost actions are expected to deliver approximately $75 million in savings driven by material and factory initiatives, distribution network efficiencies, and SG&A productivity. Interest expense is expected to be approximately $65 million, reflecting the impact of our M&A activity and share repurchases. We expect a tax rate of roughly 20%.

Based on these assumptions, we expect adjusted EPS of $23.50 to $25. Free cash flow is expected to be between $750 million and $850 million driven by inventory normalization and higher profitability. Overall, we are cautiously optimistic for 2026 as we expect to return to revenue growth and build on our momentum to deliver our fourth consecutive year of EBIT margin expansion.

With that, please turn to slide 12, and I'll hand it back to Alok.

Thanks, Michael. I want to highlight the progress we have made on our self-help transformation plan, which is now entering its final phase. From 2022 through '24, the team focused on stabilization and consistent execution. During that period, we reinforced pricing discipline, restored commercial margins and build the organizational and operational foundation for sustainable growth.

In 2025, our priority shifted to diversifying the portfolio and strengthening our market position. The Samsung joint ventures, along with Durdan and Saco acquisition broadened our product offering and will increase our share of wallet. The new commercial manufacturing capacity, improved product availability, especially for the emergency replacement market.

By addressing constraints at our existing Stuttgart factory, we also created opportunity to grow our commercial national account business. Beginning in 2026, we will move into the expansion phase of our self-help transformation plan. This stage focuses on scaling our footprint, broadening our product portfolio, and extending our reach across residential and commercial end markets. It includes adding training centers, customer experience centers, and new distribution capabilities.

From an innovation perspective, we will invest in testing and certification labs, digital and AI solutions, and a healthy pipeline of new products. We remain on track to deliver on our most recent long-term commitments, and we will share updated long-term target at the 2026 Lennox Investor Day on March 4, where we will also provide deeper visibility into our strategic growth initiatives.

Now, let's turn to slide 13 for why I believe Lennox [along] the industry. Lennox remains a highly attractive long-term investment. Our markets benefit from strong replacement fundamentals, and we operate with a direct-to-dealer model that differentiates our customer experience.

Our margin profile is resilient driven by disciplined pricing, operational excellence, and a portfolio aligned to the evolving needs of contractors and consumers. These trends are reinforced by a high-performing culture centered on advanced technology and execution, which positions us well as we embark on the next phase of our strategy.

I'm confident in our strategic direction and remain committed to delivering sustained value for our customers, employees and shareholders. I believe that we are building meaningful momentum and that our best days are still ahead.

Thank you. We will be happy to answer your questions now. Madison, let's go to Q&A.

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

I wanted to start with HCS revenue in the fourth quarter, down 21%, was a little worse than I was thinking. And clearly, it was hard to call. So two questions. First, how did HCS trend through the quarter? My feeling is November and December or maybe a little worse in October?

And then secondly, where was the surprise? Was it more the one step or the two steps?

Sure. Great to speak with you. Thanks for your question. Yes, November and December were worse than where October was trending. So I think that's a fair assumption.

I think surprise for us was more on the residential new construction side, which I think performed worse than we expected. But I think the one-step channel and two-step channel behave similarly, both undergoing destocking. So while the two-step impact was more that was expected. But I think we both went through destocking in Q4, that was more than we expected.

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then slide 4 is really helpful. Thanks for that. A few tailwinds into '26. But Alok, can you square those tailwinds with the guide for HCS up to? Because it implies volumes are down maybe 3% plus. I don't know if there's M&A in there, but just square that up for us, how you're thinking about that?

Sure. I'll take that. So within the HCS guide, we have about a mid-single-digit decline in volume for the full year, down more in the first half as we're going to see continued destocking into the first quarter, specifically on the two-step channel, a little bit on the one step. But as we get into late Q2 into Q3 and into Q4, that's when we start to see growth, that will kind of normalize us and be a positive inflection in the second half of the year by year. But the first quarter will dry down on the full year.

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

I wanted to ask about inventory levels, and obviously, they're up a lot year-over-year in dollar terms. I'm just trying to understand when you expect those to normalize? And maybe you can talk about it from the perspective of both one step and two steps.

Yes. I mentioned that in the script there, we have about $200 million more than seasonally normal at this point. We have another $100 million in there for just investments to get better experience with our customers. Within that $200 million, you'll see some continue to go down a little bit in the first quarter, but we also need to make sure that we have the right level we hit the summer season in the second quarter. And right now, those inventory levels in December approximately align with what we'll need in the summer season.

So a little bit of work to do in the first quarter to ramp factories down to get some absorption. But overall, we think we're going to be in a really good spot in the second quarter without having to do a ton of disruption on our factory by ramping it down significantly and then ramping it back up, we found that this is the best approach to mitigate some of these destocking industry issues that we're fighting through.

And Amit, if I could just add, first of all, let to the Lennox coverage universe, great to have you on the call. Amit, your question was answered by Michael on our inventory levels. On a channel perspective, Michael also mentioned, we think one staff is completing the destocking and largely done in Q1 and two steps destocking will be done by Q2. So that kind of inventory outside our

Yes, makes sense. And then just a follow-up. I know price mix has guided up to mid-single digits this year. I'd be curious if you could just give a little bit of a sense of how much of that is kind of the carryover effect? And how much of that is prospective increases? Obviously, you make regular price increases this year. Just trying to understand the bifurcation between those two would be helpful.

Yes, a little bit of a carryover in the first half, specifically on the mix benefit of point-ish, maybe close to 2 points in the first half of the carryover mix, and then the rest is new price initiatives that we're going to start to launch into this quarter and into Q2.

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

Can we just maybe just talk a little bit about seasonality and cadence of EPS and how to think about the first quarter, just given all of the moving parts, just any guidance that you can give us around 1Q would be helpful.

Sure. Obviously, it's been quite cold recently, Joe. So that may impact a few things. But in general, remember on the HCS side, we're going to be facing pretty tough comps. There's a lot of stocking up going on as some of the 454 items have just been launched, but people are still buying [410].

On the BCS side, we had it a quarter with our own production move and some of the key account challenges. But net-net, we would expect Q1 to be down. We would expect first half to be down in the second half to be up overall. But yes, we don't expect a great first quarter right now.

Okay. That's helpful. And then just going back to your assumptions for resi volumes this year, I think you said that you had it down mid-single digits for the full year, down more in the first half. I guess as you're kind of thinking through like the swing factors as you progress through the year, like maybe just talk through some of your key assumptions on the mid-single-digit number as you progress through '26?

Sure. I mean I think, obviously, we got more than 11 months to go. But from where we are, we're going to be closely watching consumer confidence, which remains uncertain. Interest rates and housing, both existing home sales and new home sales is something we will be closely watching. We're obviously will be closing watching our dealer confidence as well, which was shaken last year by the transition and the lack of comes shortage which I think is improving.

So they can actually outline on page 4, those are the key things we'll be watching for. From our prospective, Q4 and Q3 were significantly impacted by destocking, and we remain fairly confident that that's going to be behind us in the second half. So that's probably shaping our overall view on the largest factor on 2025 performance lost destocking. And the fact that that's going to be behind us, that's going to help us get to a better number this year.

And Joe, I'll just add to that, we'll watch the seasonal demand. I mean if it turns into a hot summer early, there's a lot of replenishment of inventory that happens that could happen very quickly, and we're in a really good position for that. So I think that's one thing we'll start to watch this the season play out as we get into March and April as well.

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

Look on pricing last quarter, this is specifically to resi, if I recall correctly. Last quarter, there was a conversation about maybe a mid-single -- lift increase and you dial something in the low sole digits range. Is that still a reasonable bogey to use for this year?

Yes. I think for a new pricing, that's still a reasonable bogey and then Michael mentioned there's a carryover effect, right? So while it can be too precise, I mean I look at our mid-single digit as a combination of new pricing, which we have announced already across the entire business portfolio and then carryover.

Remember, last year, we talked about the mix was going to be roughly 40% 410A, 60% 454B. So that 40% 410A is gone, and it's all going to be R-454B. I think the price mix lift from last year used to the overall number of mid-single digits that we have put in our guide.

Great. And then in on ready here for volumes and even more specific on the one step. It sounds like destocking is nearly entirely in the rearview mirror here. So in the outlook you've provided for resi volumes, would one step be implied up for the full year? Or are you still assuming even without destocking headwinds that there maybe see some additional headwinds?

I would say, listen, I mean, 70% of our business is one step. So I think the way we would look at it one step is going to be flattish to maybe slightly up, two steps going to be down. So I think that's as much precision as we have in our forecast at this stage. But yes, one step will do better than two steps, especially given that two steps would be going through destocking at the second quarter.

Now, at the same time, if something changes and Michael said it bean early start and a hot start to summer. They don't do step might come back and start holding more normal level of inventory, current assumption is exactly what you said.

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Maybe just starting with BCS, the 15% growth, if you could unpack similarly, like you did for the res business price volume M&A in there? And then just maybe -- I think you were saying that you thought that would maybe start to turn and what you're seeing just relying on the commercial unitary business?

I'll give some guide points within that. So we expect within the 15% high single-digit growth from the acquisition most of that M&A kind of lean towards that segment with the Duradyne business. From a volume perspective, we expect up mid-single digits with recovery in end markets and share gains. And then price mix combined are going to be kind of more in the low single digits on that side of the business.

Yes. And I think from what we are seeing in the market is gone through 17 straight months of decline as for the AHRI data by December. So I think just comps get better, and we are seeing good uptake in quotations and good uptick in the backlog as well. So while it's not boom years, I think it's going to become less of a better year as we go into 2026.

Okay. And then just on the repair replace dynamic, how are you building that into your -- as you talk to more of your contractors? Is the view that the consumers tighten this persists or it was mostly a canister issue and it kind of goes away?

Sure. I mean, first of all, we look at that dynamic more as deferred replacement because anything that you repair will come back for replacement typically in 12 to 24 months. So I think that's the way we would look at it. When we speak to our contractors, we find that the dealer confidence on the new product, the dealer confidence on upselling to a replacement, the dealer confidence because of canister shortage was a large part of the impact. Clearly, there's consumer sentiment there as well.

The fact that the dealer sentiment has turned to more positive going into the year makes us a little bit more favorably inclined throughout that trend this year. But so far, what we have assumed is it's not going to get any worse. We haven't assumed that's going to get better either. So we think it will remain at the 2025 level, which you know had heightened repair versus replace.

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

I think, Michael, you mentioned a couple of times the absorption factor for 1Q. Can you expand on that? And would that lead decrement on volumes in 1Q to be kind of worse than the typical 30-ish percent decline?

I think we have some cost actions that we're trying to mitigate within that you saw we did some really good SG&A cost productivity in the fourth quarter. Some of that's going to repeat into the first quarter. A lot of material cost reduction programs are on tariff mitigation and other things are going to soften it. But Q1 is kind of a light quarter from a volume perspective. So if you think about $10 million to $15 million of absorption that can have a pretty big impact within the decremental.

But we think as you get through Q1 that absorption goes away and we get back into cost productivity across factory materials and our distribution network. But a little headwind as we get inventory to the right spot for Q2.

Okay. That's helpful. And then I believe I heard you say the CapEx number would be $250 million for the year?

Correct. Yes. It's normally about $150 million of just normal recurring CapEx and then we have $150 million of strategic innovations that we're doing and a good proven track record of ROIs and organic investments. So I think we have a good pipeline of these projects that have really strong ROIs for the next several years, and we're going to keep a bus now and got the customer experience, and that's where we're focused on both digital and our physical distribution network.

Yes. I think the second part of the question was just to ask whether we should view those growth organic investments in CapEx as something more permanent? Or should we think about kind of future reversion more towards the typical maintenance CapEx range?

No, I would not think of those I think our maintenance/regular CapEx remains in the $125 million range, $125 million to $150 million. Three years earlier, we had called out and we have said it any other big investments, we'll call it out. So now we're just calling out that we're going to be spending additional $100 million or so.

And those are really good projects. Many of the projects are deferred because all our engineering and the resources were tied with So -- but no, I would say after that, we go back to our usual maintenance-type CapEx.

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

I wanted to follow up on company inventory and the associated absorption headwinds that come from that. It seems to me that inventory was kind of flattish quarter-on-quarter into Q4 when normally it would step down maybe to like the mid-single-digit level. So I guess, has there not been any destocking yet? And maybe that's the first part of the question.

And the second part is, why do the absorption headwinds end after Q1? It seems like this $200 million excess inventory will be sold into peak summer demand. But I would think that, that means under production up in those summer months. And I would expect that -- I would have thought that the absorption headwind comes to on a lag as it flows off the balance sheet into the P&L.

Sure. Chris, on the inventory piece, yes, we did ramp down production. But as you saw, our sales came in much lower than expected in Q4. So that's why the inventory didn't go down meaningfully. It did go down slightly, so now we have to ramp production even more and which we did towards the end of the quarter.

On the second question on absorption, Q1 will have the largest impact because at the time we start ramping up for selling product into Q2. So the manufacturing for sales into -- to plan the happening in Q1, just given the lead time from when the product is manufactured to when it's stored, hence we caught it out. There will be some impact of absorption in Q2, but most of it will be in Q1.

I appreciate that. And then maybe just following up on the cost inflation. The 2.5% came in below what I was expecting just kind of based on some of the tariff wrap and then the metal inflation and other cost inflation we're seeing in the market.

So can you maybe just kind of help us unpack that number? How much is tariff wrap? How much is new cost inflation? And I think it seems like there's maybe some offsets there in mitigation that's perhaps keeping that number a little bit lower than we would have thought?

That's a correct interpretation of the gut. So right now, what we apply is the 2.5% to our total cost, that would be manufacturing costs, distribution costs and SG&A costs. Not all are going up the same. We are seeing a little bit more inflation on the commodity side, but we also have hedging programs that delay some of that cost increase, and we've significantly moved away from copper and we have more of an aluminum product. So that's softening, at least from the metals perspective, why it's not as in within the guide.

Tariffs, there will be kind of some wraparound impact of tariffs. It's about $125 million full year 2025. We'll have a little bit of carryover in the first half of that, assuming the tariff structure stays the same, which is what we've built within the guide. But overall, we assume that inflation and then we're going to drive productivity and investment actions against that inflation number.

Yes. If I could just add to that -- we have significant cost reduction that went in fact in 2025. We have 1,000 less employees than we had before we went into the cost reductions free. And we are not going to bring all of that cost back. So some of the benefit that you see is from our perspective, the productivity aspect of it, both on materials, manufacturing and SG&A is something that we have baked in going forward.

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

Maybe just wanted to start with overall operating margins. I don't think that's been fleshed out too much yet. But just wondered, is it fair to say the full year guide is embedding operating margins down slightly maybe year-on-year.

And then you've got between the segments. Anything you'd flesh out perhaps BCS up for the year? And anything you could help us around kind of first half versus second half year-on-year on the margin front, please?

Yes. So overall, the guide implies EBIT ROS expansion of about 20 basis points to mention that in our script. We're looking at the fourth consecutive year in a row of margin expansion. Within BCS, it's going to be up more. Within HCS, it's going to be flat to slightly down at the -- are down.

So the volume leverage within BCS, you'll start to really see that within their margin expansion. . Within the seasonality, like talk a little bit about that. But when you look at 2025, the seasonality first half to second half from a revenue perspective was about 50-50. As we think about next year or 2026, it will be 3 or 4 points less than 50% in the first half, 3% or 4% higher in the second half.

Normal incrementals on the volume that we talked about a 35% of the decremental and incremental plus the cost inflation and productivity initiatives. So overall, a little bit more headwind in the first half, but the margin expansion will definitely start to show in the second half.

That's helpful. And just wondered kind of any perspectives on the market in HCS. Maybe last year, the market was, I don't know, 7.3 million -- 7.4 million units and the sell-out just under 8 million. Just wondered your thoughts around how we're thinking about those very big moving parts for '26? And what degree of repair normalization you're expecting this year in the industry?

Yes. Julien, we're getting trouble every time we try and predict the number of units in the market. And I know you guys have pretty sophisticated models just like we do. I think from our perspective, the ocean has been that your sell-in number was heavily impacted by destocking and the end of destocking would lead to automatic improvements. Our assumption is that the repair versus replace activity is stabilized going forward.

So we're not expecting it to turn back, but we are expecting it to stabilize at least going forward. So net-net, I mean, on a sell-in basis, you will see higher numbers than where we ended the year, as you said, 7.3 million, 7.4 million. And on a sell-out basis, I mean those numbers are really not that reliable. So we focused less on that.

What we have seen in our own one-step channel is that the confidence of dealer has come back and people are now looking at 2026 as a fresh start with our R-454B, that's probably the best news out there, Julian. Given all the other potential headwinds, including consumer confidence and numbers that don't seem to be improving including yesterday's number where consumer confidence was very, very low.

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

Look, maybe just coming back to the -- a piece of that last point. Just on repair versus replace stabilizing. That is sort of a thesis at this point? Or do you think there's actual evidence of that? And I guess maybe a lie to that point is within the mix, any evidence that people are trying to mix lower?

Obviously, you got the mix carryover on the refrigerant coming through. And I guess it's getting harder the mix lower as all the Sear levels have continued to move up. But -- is there any evidence of just more distress on what kind of units they're buying and whether it's a replacement or repair?

Yes. So the first one, it's supported by our own research and data. Now, we don't have data on all the dealers, but we do see quite a few of the dealers that have direct conversation with them. Is it statistically relevant? I mean that goes down to a DC road that I won't go to back. It's more than just a hypothesis. It's definitely something that we have rented out on stabilizing.

On the second quarter mix, I mean, remember, 70% of the sales are now to the lowest year as the minimum has gone up. Are they trained downs that are happening? Yes. Are they going to be meaningful impact to us? Unlikely given that 70% of it is already revenue to your numbers.

Now, it comes down to single-stage variable speed at some stage that we are continuously, looking to refine and put forward. But you will see overall that from our perspective, the mix will improve because 454B versus 410A, that's a county would effect coming forward.

And Jeff, I'll just add on the repair side. We expect the input costs there going to be up significantly more than systems starting this year and into the next few years, our 410A gas is going to be up. The cost of the technician complexity is going to be -- continue to go up. So we expect that equation within the repair brisk replaced to lean more toward a system replacement in the next year to two as well.

Yes. No, understood. And then maybe just on capital deployment. Obviously, you become a bit more active on the M&A side here. Is there an active pipeline? Should we anticipate more in 2026? What are your thoughts there?

Yes. We maintain a pipeline. We obviously have to digest what we bought and make sure the integration goes well. But if you have a bolt-on acquisition as per our consistent strategy remains a focus, I would say, over the next couple of years, you should expect more -- can be definite about anything in this year but the size of what we bought is something we like. I think people look at similar size, we'd be slightly smaller acquisitions in the pipeline.

And I know our focus will remain on things that we can sure, two plus two is going to be greater than four. So things that we can apply our stores network, things that they can apply our national account team, and that's where we're very happy with the DuroDyne and Supco acquisition because a net add to us and a significant room for improvement on the margin side as well.

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

Just circle back on the question about quarterly cadence. I think, Michael, you answered that with respect to revenue. When we think about that one-half to two-half, is that kind of reflected in EPS as well? Or is it maybe a bit more pronounced because of the under absorption in the first quarter?

Definitely into the first quarter, you'll start to see that, but there's also going to be some more cost productivity as we get into the second quarter to mitigate some of that absorption. So first quarter is going to be tougher. But I think from a revenue perspective, that's the main thing that drives the margins at 35% decrementals and then offset with some productivity and/or absorption. That's the main driver of our

Okay. Okay. Understood. And then just coming back on price as well. When you guys kind of look out over the competitive landscape, we've heard some noise around maybe some price competitiveness particularly in the new construction channel recently.

I guess, what are you guys seeing out there in the market? Do you think that your competitors are kind of aiming for a similar level of price increase for 2026 as you are?

Yes. Based on everything we have seen so far, yes, we see our competitors aiming at similar price increases. So not surprised. Yes, we have seen some of the low-end R&C business get more competitive and we talked about that earlier. We have chosen some of those not to go down that path, and instead focus on our core dealer network and the right kind of customer experience there.

But nothing is surprising and nor is it any major deviation from the past. If I believe on one sales person in one small territory, they will tell me that they're facing significant price competition, that's probably true for all our competitive scenario. But if you look at broad-based across US for basis, industry remains very disciplined, industry remains very focused, and we compete on technology, we compete on availability and service and that's how we compete.

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

Can you elaborate a little bit on the price mix trends in HCS over the past few quarters? I think we saw that step down a small amount from Q2 to Q3. Q4 was a few hundred bps below the Q2 level on similar comps. And so just in terms of what you're seeing on the price side or the mix side that's been contributing to that?

Yes, Joe, it did step down a little bit in the fourth quarter versus third quarter. It's mostly related to just the bigger decline in condenser sales where we saw the bigger mix lift. Also, we had a bigger proportion of furnace and parts and accessories and things that didn't have that same big mix lift up in the fourth quarter. Same proportion of the third quarter. That's the main driver. Besides that, price/mix continues to stitstick within each product channel.

Makes sense. And then can you just talk about like what you're doing with your dealers to help kind of position them for posturing toward more selling of replace over repair, understanding that last year and kind of the introduction of a new refrigerant had its challenges along with canisters.

But just entry-level economics and what the message is as well as any color on what is the entry-level cost today versus what it was five years ago? Because I think that's something that seems like face value. It's a -- there's a little bit of shock value with it, but how the economics are compelling on sort of the replace versus repair side and what you're messaging or helping on the marketing side with dealers?

Sure. I'll start by saying our contractors and dealers are naturally inclined to focus on replacement versus repair because it's higher margin to a; and b, are of the clear understanding that repairing is just differing replacement and they try and communicate that to their own consumers and make sure that they make the smart choices. Remember, repairs are hard to finance than replacements. We help them with financing. We help our dealers with training.

We help them with the sales collateral and material. And run appropriate promotions with them, especially when it comes to financing and rebates to incentivize replacement versus repair. We clearly didn't do a lot of that last year given the transition, and I think we are back to that board now that the dealers have good confidence on it.

On your price perspective, compared to sort of pre-COVID level up to now, the price from manufacturer to the contractor or the channel has definitely gone up, but the price from the channel to the consumer has gone up even more. Some of it reflects the higher labor cost as the skill labor shortage persists and grows across US. Some of it also reflects the fact that consumers were not getting as many cores, and we see now consumers are getting many more cores and that's coming more back to normal.

So I see any price pressure is going to play out between the consumer and the channel versus the channel and the manufacturer. And then finally, as we look at this going forward, what I started by saying is true is any repair is simply deferred replacement.

So a lot of things that were patched up and then repaired last year may come back again for replacement this year, if not definitely next year. So we feel very good about the long-term trend despite some short-term disconnect that we all saw last year.

Joe, I'll just add to that, we expect or if you believe the expectation that electricity costs are going to continue to increase. There's potential monthly savings in utility build that homeowners can get with the new system. The minimum system efficiently has increased significantly over the last few years, and there's a lot of cost savings that a homeowner can get the new system now as well.

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

Detail as usual. Just on these other items from slide 10 from the last quarter where you had growth in the value tier. I know Jeff touched on the repair versus replace, but the rationalization of low-margin RNC accounts. Any change in those? I don't see them on the tailwinds, headwinds slide. Any change in those dynamics?

No, no change in the dynamics, and we talked about the already impact in Q4 already. So I think that continues to move towards trade down, we touched on the Q&A but nothing changed. What we highlighted on slide 4 of this time was on a comparison to what we think things are going to improve or be different in 2026. But those two factors remain the same, Steve.

Okay. And then just lastly on its accounting change. How would that have kind of impacted the shape of the year? And I guess you guys hedge as well on copper and maybe a little more aluminum, like what kind of would we -- what would we have seen? And maybe when does that kind of recouple to wherever these commodities are moving?

You mean the 2026 year or 2025 year?

Yes, '26. I mean you gave us the differences in '25. So just how would the shape of '26? I mean it all normalizes in the end, right, but like how would the shape of '26 maybe been a bit different?

Yes. I think it leans to that absorption Covent make in the first quarter where some of that's going to come into the first quarter of '26. You're going to see some variations in the fourth quarter of 2026 go to 2027, just that's the natural timing of FIFO vs LIFO, but net kind of neutral impact for the change of the FIFO in 2026.

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

Just wanted to follow up on the repair replace one more time here. Did you actually see positive parts growth in the fourth quarter? And then are there any regional or efficiency level observations where the trade down might be more pronounced?

The answer to the second question is no, we don't see any specific regional differences that could dry repair versus replace trade downs. On the first part, I mean parts have been really growing more than the equipment pretty much most of 2025. Now, you see that in the AHRI data, we also see it in our own data. So yes, I mean, we do have actual data to support the fact that parts grow more. And we heard that from other conference calls and our distributors as well.

Got it. And then just a follow-up on NSI and the parts strategy. Maybe an update on how NSI is now tracking organically in the organization. And then as you continue to build out that parts pull-through strategy better throughput, how do we think about incrementals in the context of better branch flow and volumes going forward?

Sure. So yes, I think NSI acquisition overall -- we remain very pleased with it. We only have sort of two months of data from last year. But I think the sales performance as we expected, it is just like other parts businesses growing. I mean they obviously have some destocking impact.

Going forward, I think this year is obviously going to be focused on integration, and we have expenses and all that associated with that. And Michael referred to that as part of some of our ERP conversion cost in there. But we would expect go through on -- to be at or better than our overall margin levels going forward. And by 2027, I think it will definitely be on the better side compared to our usual incrementals.

And I'll just add to that. We're really excited about the platform that, that brings. It brings culture and experience to our partners that we didn't have. We had about $500 million of legacy parts and accessories within our existing business. And joining that with that existing parts and accessory business is going to help us really get that attachment rate into the 20% to 25% of our sales currently.

It's only about 15% in the HCS segment. So really excited about the opportunities that we have around that acquisition, helping our existing parts and accessories business as well.

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

Lot of ground. But I did want to go back to the two step as one step for both the quarter and FY26. Obviously, we've got the AI data through to November. It looks like 4Q was trending down, I don't know, 40%, 45%. Is that what you saw in your two steps which would imply one step down with (inaudible) in units.

And then in '26, look, you mentioned one step up low singles. Just want to make sure you're inferring that two steps down probably mid to high single digits?

Yes. So I think let me start with the Q4 number, right. Obviously, December is still to come. But yes, we saw similar behavior on the two step, and that gives you the right calculation to interpret what happened on the one step for us in Q4. And I'll let Michael answer the question.

Talking to the full year revenues. We break the volume down -- the volume down mid-single digits, slightly less down in indirect as that business will come back a little stronger. And then on the direction, we've got a little bit of headwind in there from RNC as well just being weaker on that side of the channel.

Okay. But you still think you'll grow low singles with the RNC headwind, is that fair or?

Correct. That's with mix and price, correct.

Okay. Okay. Well, that's with mix and price. Okay. Got it. Understood. And then just a quick one on the $75 million of productivity in '26. That's a big swing in the bridge. I think you've got some compensation benefits in '25, which I'm assuming would impact that number as well.

So maybe just unpack of $25 million in a bit more detail. And maybe just if you could just clarify, I think this is Michael. The material productivity is in the 2.5% inflation number. And so that this seminar would not include that.

Correct. Yes. So we start with basically a cost inflation of 2.5%. And then from there, we draw activity against it. So we have $75 million of productivity against that overall inflation.

It's really across several things that's within the factory. We're going to finally start to leverage a lot of the productivity within the BCS factory that's going to be fully up and running in the -- throughout the year. We're going to see distribution investments we've made on the efficiencies on our network. You saw in the fourth quarter, we recognized a lot of SG&A cost actions. Alok talked about the headcount reductions that will carry into 2026 as well as technology and AI investments around systems that will help drive some of that cost

And then finally, it's about tariffs. We've seen a lot of tariff costs within 2025, and we know a path to mitigate some of that. So the new cost pool that we can drive productivity against. But we feel real focus on the productivity number and hope to exceed it.

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

Just a couple of quick ones for Michael. It looks like you all did a really good job at containing your decrementals quarter, that benchmark to try to keep it in a down market to decremental 25% looks really well done.

I just was curious, are you managing to that number? Or is this more of an outcome? Because it looks like you took out a lot of SG&A at the right time to hit that decremental. But just let to hear kind of behind the scenes, how are you managing that?

Yes, definitely. We managed two main things within the first. It's the price cost equation to make sure we're positive on that. So that helps in the decremental. And two, as we saw end markets deteriorate in the second half of 2025, both BCS -- within HCS took some cost actions, and you start to see those in there to help mitigate the decrementals that we know is temporary.

And we believe that we've restructured the organization in a way that when the volumes come back into Q2 that we'll be able to drive strong incrementals at the 35% with the cost structure and placement.

And I think, Dean, we have every year a strategic planning process. And during that, we have ABC cost items that we would pull if markets go down. Last year was the year we had to put all ABC and maybe items as well, given how steep the volume decline was. So it's not that we're managing to a number. We just have a strategy and a set of processes that we leverage to make sure that costs flow in line with our growth or revenue.

That's really good to hear. And just a quick one on free cash flow, which was a real strong point in the quarter despite carrying more --

The whole thing was designed telling I hope being notice of this.

Okay. Well, I noticed. And just the idea you carried more inventory, so that would have worked against you, but it looks like you really came through on the receivables side. Just were there any one-timers in there? Did you pull any those receivables forward? Just some color there would be helpful because it was a really standout quarter free cash flow?

I would give Michael full credit for it. I think he's done a really good job centralizing our teams, consolidating accounting, moving things to shared services and driving some really good processes, especially around collection and timely things. So I think you have a lot of process improvement.

And you would see there's a good trend of us managing APAR more disciplined fashion than we have done in the past. So I wouldn't say there's any one timers there.

Thank you for joining us today. Since there are no further questions, this will conclude Lennox's 2025 fourth quarter conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.