Lennox International Inc (LII) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Please stand by your program is about to begin.

請稍候，您的節目即將開始。

If you need assistance during your conference today, please press star zero.

如果您今天的會議期間需要協助，請按星號零。

Welcome to the Lennox fourth-quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Lennox 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，此通話正在被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Chelsey Pulcheon from the Lennox Investor Relations team.

現在，我想將會議交給 Lennox 投資者關係團隊的 Chelsey Pulcheon。

Chelsea, please go ahead.

切爾西，請繼續。

Thank you, Angela.

謝謝你，安吉拉。

And good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you for joining us today as we share our 2024 fourth-quarter and full year results.

感謝您今天加入我們，分享我們 2024 年第四季和全年業績。

Joining me is CEO, Alok Maskara; and CFO, Michael Quenzer.

和我一起的是首席執行官 Alok Maskara；和財務長 Michael Quenzer。

Each will share their prepared remarks before we move to the Q&A session.

在我們進入問答環節之前，每個人都會分享他們準備好的發言。

Turning to slide 2.

翻到幻燈片 2。

A reminder that during today's call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as outlined on this page.

提醒您，在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能受到本頁概述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響。

We may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that management considers relevant indicator of underlying business performance.

我們也可能參考管理階層認為與基礎業務績效相關的某些非 GAAP 財務指標。

Please refer to our SEC filings available on our Investor Relations website for additional details, including a reconciliation of all GAAP to non-GAAP measures.

請參閱我們的投資者關係網站上提供的 SEC 文件以獲取更多詳細信息，包括所有 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的對帳。

The earnings release, today's presentation and the webcast archive link for today's call are available on our Investor Relations website at investor.lennox.com.

收益報告、今天的簡報和今天電話會議的網路廣播存檔連結可在我們的投資者關係網站 investor.lennox.com 上找到。

Now, please turn to slide 3 as I turn the call over to our CEO, Alok Maskara.

現在，請翻到投影片 3，我將把電話轉給我們的執行長 Alok Maskara。

Thank you, Chelsey.

謝謝你，切爾西。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I want to start by expressing my gratitude to our 40,000 employees, our 10,000 (inaudible) dealers and all of our customers for their loyalty and innovation that enabled us to deliver an exceptional, strong finish to 2024.

首先，我要向我們的 40,000 名員工、10,000 家（聽不清楚）經銷商以及所有客戶表示感謝，感謝他們的忠誠和創新，使我們能夠在 2024 年取得卓越、強勁的成績。

One of the highlights for 2024 is that for the first time, Lennox delivered over $5 billion in revenue and over $1 billion in adjusted segment profit.

2024 年的一大亮點是，Lennox 首次實現超過 50 億美元的收入和超過 10 億美元的調整後分部利潤。

Another achievement in 2024, that both our segments delivered double-digit revenue growth.

2024 年的另一項成就是，我們的兩個部門都實現了兩位數的收入成長。

In addition to delivering record results, we also made thoughtful investments.

除了取得創紀錄的業績外，我們還進行了深思熟慮的投資。

Such as starting a new commercial factory to create growth capacity.

例如開辦新的商業工廠來創造成長產能。

Let us turn to slide 3 for the fourth-quarter and full year 2024 overview.

讓我們翻到投影片 3 來查看 2024 年第四季和全年概覽。

Adjusted earnings per share was a record $5.60 for the quarter and $22.58 for the full year.

本季調整後每股收益達到創紀錄的 5.60 美元，全年調整後每股收益達到創紀錄的 22.58 美元。

Core revenue grew 22% in the quarter and 13% for the full year.

本季核心營收成長 22%，全年成長 13%。

Our adjusted segment margin expanded 250 basis points in Q4 and 150 basis points for the full year to 19.4%.

我們的調整後分部利潤率在第四季度擴大了 250 個基點，全年擴大了 150 個基點，達到 19.4%。

The team also delivered a record $332 million in operating cash flow in the quarter and $946 million in the full year.

該團隊還在本季實現了創紀錄的 3.32 億美元營運現金流，全年實現 9.46 億美元營運現金流。

Michael will provide more details later in the presentation, but I want to highlight how proud we are of the work the team did this year to deliver significant year-over-year improvement in our cash conversion.

麥可將在稍後的演講中提供更多細節，但我想強調的是，我們對團隊今年所做的工作感到非常自豪，使我們的現金轉換率比去年同期顯著提高。

Now, please turn to slide 4 as I review some of the drivers of our 2024 success.

現在，請翻到投影片 4，我將回顧我們 2024 年成功的一些驅動因素。

In 2024, we successfully completed the initial phase of our self-help transformation plan.

2024年，我們順利完成自救轉型計畫初步階段。

The team's effort in '23, including pricing initiatives, portfolio simplification and strategic acquisitions, not only restore margins, but also established a strong foundation for an exceptional 2024.

該團隊在23年的努力，包括定價舉措、產品組合簡化和策略性收購，不僅恢復了利潤率，也為2024年的卓越表現奠定了堅實的基礎。

Our strategic initiatives enabled us to successfully navigate the construction of a new commercial factory and overcome challenges associated with the refrigerant transition, showcasing our resilience and outstanding execution.

我們的策略性舉措使我們能夠成功引導新商業工廠的建設，並克服與冷媒轉換相關的挑戰，展現了我們的韌性和出色的執行力。

In 2024, we continue making strategic investments while delivering impactful results, positioning us to continue our momentum into 2025 and beyond.

2024 年，我們將繼續進行策略性投資，同時取得有影響力的成果，為我們在 2025 年及以後繼續保持良好發展勢頭做好準備。

We successfully navigated the manufacturing transition from our [Fort A] refrigerant, effectively meeting customer needs as investments in sales and distribution channels, elevated the customer experience.

我們成功實現了從 [Fort A] 冷媒的生產轉型，有效地滿足了客戶需求，同時對銷售和分銷管道的投資提升了客戶體驗。

Our ongoing focus on pricing excellence programs partially offset the investments for improving customer experience.

我們對卓越定價計劃的持續關注部分抵消了改善客戶體驗的投資。

Our new commercial factory is now online and will be key to enhancing output and productivity.

我們的新商業工廠現已投入運營，將成為提高產量和生產力的關鍵。

The area's integration remains ahead of schedule, exceeding the original value proposition.

該地區的整合仍提前完成，超出了最初的價值主張。

We maintained our strategic M&A pipeline and our disciplined M&A approach.

我們保持了策略性的併購管道和嚴謹的併購方法。

The best deals for Lennox in 2024 with the deals that we decided not to pursue, thus regarding long-term shareholder value.

我們決定不進行的交易是 2024 年 Lennox 的最佳交易，因此有利於長期股東價值。

Finally, by driving accountability to the Lennox unified management system, we ensure consistent performance.

最後，透過推動 Lennox 統一管理系統的責任追究，我們確保了一致的性能。

Before I hand the call to Michael, I want to extend my heartfelt gratitude to Gary Bedard, President of our HCS segment since 2023, who has announced his decision to retire from Lenox.

在將電話轉給邁克爾之前，我想向自 2023 年起擔任我們 HCS 部門總裁的加里·貝達 (Gary Bedard) 表示衷心的感謝，他已宣布決定從萊諾克斯退休。

Gary's 26-year tenure at Lenox will leave a legacy that will continue to shape our future.

加里在萊諾克斯的26年任期將留下寶貴的遺產，並將繼續影響我們的未來。

We have initiated a search process to identify our next HCS precedent.

我們已經啟動搜尋流程來確定我們的下一個 HCS 先例。

I'll now hand it over to Michael, who will walk you through how we successfully invested in the business while also delivering strong results.

現在我將話題交給邁克爾，他將向大家介紹我們如何成功投資這項業務並取得強勁業績。

Thank you, Alok.

謝謝你，阿洛克。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Please turn to Slide 5.

請翻到投影片 5。

We are pleased to report our eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year adjusted earnings per share growth.

我們很高興地報告，我們連續第八個季度實現調整後每股收益同比增長兩位數。

This quarter, we increased our adjusted segment margin by 250 basis points and achieved an impressive 22% revenue growth resulted in 54% adjusted EPS growth.

本季度，我們將調整後的分部利潤率提高了 250 個基點，實現了令人印象深刻的 22% 的收入成長，從而帶來 54% 的調整後每股收益成長。

Our success is driven by volume growth in both segments as we continue to effectively manage the transition to low GWP refrigerants.

我們的成功得益於兩個部門的銷售成長以及我們繼續有效管理向低 GWP 冷媒的過渡。

As expected, customers pre-purchased R-410A equipment, which is estimated to have positively impacted revenue by $125 million, an increased earnings per share by $1.

正如預期的那樣，客戶預先購買了 R-410A 設備，估計這對收入產生了 1.25 億美元的積極影響，每股收益增加了 1 美元。

Now, let's proceed to slide 6 to review the fourth quarter financial performance of our Home Comfort Solutions segment.

現在，讓我們進入第 6 張投影片，回顧一下家庭舒適解決方案部門第四季的財務表現。

So, Home Comfort Solutions segment had an exceptional quarter, delivering 25% revenue growth, 67% segment profit growth and an impressive 550 basis point expansion in segment profit margin.

因此，家居舒適解決方案部門度過了一個出色的季度，實現了 25% 的收入增長、67% 的部門利潤增長以及令人印象深刻的 550 個基點的部門利潤率增長。

Sales volume increased by 21%, driven by over 50% growth in our two-step distributor channel, primarily reflecting the industry-wide R-410A equipment prebuy.

銷售量成長了 21%，這得益於我們兩級經銷商通路超過 50% 的成長，這主要反映了全產業的 R-410A 設備預購。

A one-step contractor channel also saw volume increased low-double digits.

一步式承包商通路的銷售量也實現了低兩位數的成長。

This was supported by better R-410A product availability compared to the broader markets as well as some prebuy.

這是因為與更廣泛的市場相比，R-410A 產品的可用性更好，並且還有一些預購。

After adjusting for the prebuy, segment sales volume still grew by mid-single digits.

經過預購調整後，該細分市場的銷售量仍實現了中等個位數成長。

Pricing initiatives continue to progress well.

定價舉措持續進展順利。

Although the impact to the quarter was limited, we have implemented price increases on our new R-454B products, and these initiatives are progressing as expected.

雖然對本季的影響有限，但我們已經對新的R-454B產品實施了價格上漲，這些措施正在按預期進展。

Moving on to slide 7.

轉到投影片 7。

Building Climate Solutions segment delivered a very strong fourth quarter with revenue growing 17%.

建築氣候解決方案部門第四季表現強勁，營收成長 17%。

Of this growth, 3% was driven by inorganic contributions from our AES acquisition.

其中，3%的成長來自於我們收購 AES 帶來的無機貢獻。

From an organic perspective, sales volume increased 14% during the quarter.

從有機角度來看，本季銷售量成長了 14%。

This reflects early revenue benefits from our new Saltillo, Mexico manufacturing facility, as well as some R-410A equipment prebuy activity.

這反映了我們位於墨西哥薩爾蒂約的新製造工廠以及一些 R-410A 設備預購活動帶來的早期收入效益。

Segment profit increased by $8 million.

分部利潤增加了800萬美元。

However, profit margin declined due to $20 million in higher product costs related to new factory ramp-up activities and inefficiencies at our existing manufacturing facility.

然而，由於新工廠擴建活動導致的產品成本增加 2,000 萬美元，以及現有製造工廠的效率低下，導致利潤率下降。

Production outlook continues to grow and is well positioned to support our 2025 emergency replacement growth initiatives.

生產前景持續成長，並有能力支持我們的2025年緊急替代成長計畫。

Turning to slide 8.

翻到幻燈片 8。

Lennox delivered an impressive performance for 2024.

倫諾克斯在 2024 年的表現令人印象深刻。

We successfully navigated the low GWP referred to transition, achieving notable volume gains.

我們成功實現了低 GWP 轉型，並取得了顯著的銷售成長。

Our disciplined pricing strategy drove consistent quarterly price yield, contributing to margin expansion of 150 basis points.

我們嚴謹的定價策略推動了季度價格收益率的穩定，有助於利潤率擴大 150 個基點。

While our strategic investments for future growth tempered this margin improvement, these investments are expected to deliver significant benefits in the coming years, including sustained revenue growth and further margin expansion.

雖然我們針對未來成長的策略性投資抑制了利潤率的提高，但這些投資預計將在未來幾年帶來顯著的效益，包括持續的收入成長和利潤率的進一步擴大。

Turning to slide 9, let's review our cash flow to capital deployment.

轉到第 9 張投影片，讓我們回顧一下我們的現金流量與資本配置。

While revenue and earnings growth were impressive, our cash flow performance stood out even more.

雖然營收和獲利成長令人印象深刻，但我們的現金流表現更加突出。

As highlighted in the Q3 earnings call, enhanced working capital efficiency has been a key focus.

正如第三季財報電話會議中所強調的那樣，提高營運資本效率一直是關注的重點。

We've made significant progress, particularly in accounts payable initiatives, resulting in a free cash flow conversion rate of 97%.

我們取得了重大進展，特別是在應付帳款計畫方面，自由現金流轉換率達到了 97%。

This strong cash flow conversion comes despite the capital expenditures exceeded depreciation by approximately $65 million.

儘管資本支出超過折舊約 6500 萬美元，但仍實現強勁的現金流轉換。

Capital expenditure investments in high ROI projects remain a core component of our cash deployment strategy.

高投資報酬率項目的資本支出投資仍然是我們現金部署策略的核心組成部分。

Over the past two years, capital expenditures have consistently outpaced depreciation.

在過去兩年中，資本支出一直超過折舊。

This trend is expected to continue in 2025 with estimated capital expenditures of $150 million.

預計這一趨勢將持續到 2025 年，預計資本支出將達到 1.5 億美元。

We maintain a robust balance sheet with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 0.6 times, down from 1.3 times in the prior year quarter.

我們維持了強勁的資產負債表，淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 0.6 倍，低於去年同期的 1.3 倍。

Our free cash flow deployment strategy continues to prioritize inorganic growth opportunities that deliver ROIC, exceeding [whack] within three years of acquisition.

我們的自由現金流部署策略繼續優先考慮可帶來投資報酬率（ROIC）的無機成長機會，在收購後三年內超過[whack]。

Additionally, we will continue leveraging share repurchases to efficiently return excess cash to shareholders.

此外，我們將繼續利用股票回購有效地向股東返還多餘的現金。

If you'll now turn to slide 10, I will review our 2025 full year guidance.

如果您現在翻到第 10 張投影片，我將回顧我們 2025 年全年業績指引。

Anticipating another year of profitable growth, let's begin with the table on the left, which summarizes our full year revenue growth drivers.

預計今年還將實現盈利增長，讓我們從左邊的表格開始，該表格總結了我們全年收入成長的動力。

Total Company core revenue is projected to increase by approximately 2%.

預計公司核心總收入將成長約 2%。

However, the 2024 prebuy will result in year-over-year revenue headwinds in both Q1 and Q4.

然而，2024 年的預購將導致第一季和第四季的營收年減。

We also expect a low-single digit increase in sales volumes driven by growth in our BCS segment.

我們也預計，受 BCS 部門成長的推動，銷售量將出現低個位數成長。

Additionally, mixed growth from the introduction of the new low GWP products will contribute an estimated 4% to revenue growth.

此外，推出新的低 GWP 產品帶來的混合成長將為收入成長貢獻約 4%。

The phase-out of legacy 410A new products is expected to conclude by the second quarter.

傳統 410A 新產品的淘汰預計將於第二季完成。

Turning to the right side of the slide, we've outlined key cost assumptions for 2025.

在投影片的右側，我們概述了 2025 年的關鍵成本假設。

Inflation is anticipated increased costs by approximately 3%.

預計通貨膨脹將導致成本增加約 3%。

At the same time, we plan to make strategic investments in areas such as information, system advancements, distribution growth initiatives and projects designed to improve customer service.

同時，我們計劃在資訊、系統進步、分銷成長計劃和旨在改善客戶服務的項目等領域進行策略性投資。

Investments will also include enhanced sales and marketing efforts with total investments estimated at approximately $25 million for the year.

投資還將包括加強銷售和行銷力度，全年總投資預計約 2,500 萬美元。

In terms of cost productivity, we expect to generate savings of $50 million at the ramp-up cost of our new BCS factories inside, the material cost efficiencies are realized.

在成本生產率方面，我們預計在新的 BCS 工廠的增產成本中可節省 5,000 萬美元，從而實現材料成本效率。

In summary, even with the headwinds from the 2024 prebuy, we anticipate revenue and profit growth with profit margins relatively flat.

總而言之，即使面臨 2024 年預購帶來的阻力，我們預期營收和利潤仍將成長，利潤率也相對穩定。

We expect adjusted earnings per share to fall within the range of $22 to $23.50. And free cash flow is projected to fall within the range of $650 million to $800 million.

我們預計調整後的每股盈餘將在 22 美元至 23.50 美元之間。預計自由現金流將在 6.5 億美元至 8 億美元之間。

With that, please turn to slide 11.

請翻到第 11 張投影片。

I'll turn it back over to Alok for an overview of our 2025 priorities.

我將把主題轉回給 Alok，讓他概述我們的 2025 年優先事項。

Thanks, Michael.

謝謝，麥可。

Let us revisit our self-help transformation plan, which has been a cornerstone of our success since 2022.

讓我們重新審視我們的自助轉型計劃，這是自 2022 年以來我們成功的基石。

We transitioned from the recovery and invest phase to the growth acceleration phase at the end of 2024.

我們在 2024 年底從復甦和投資階段過渡到成長加速階段。

As we move through 2025 and into '26, we will maintain our disciplined approach to investing in the business while prioritizing growth.

當我們進入 2025 年和 2026 年時，我們將繼續保持嚴謹的業務投資方式，同時優先考慮成長。

This year will lay the groundwork for the next phase of expansion, supported by the momentum from share gains and new product introductions.

今年將為下一階段的擴張奠定基礎，並藉助市場佔有率成長和新產品推出的勢頭。

Investments in digital customer experience are making it easier for customers to engage with us, strengthening loyalty and satisfaction across all touch points.

對數位客戶體驗的投資使客戶更容易與我們互動，從而增強了所有接觸點的忠誠度和滿意度。

Our expanded heat pump offering, supported by the Samsung JV, not only broaden our product portfolio, but also position us to capitalize on growing demand for energy-efficient solutions.

在三星合資企業的支持下，我們擴大了熱泵產品範圍，不僅拓寬了我們的產品組合，而且使我們能夠滿足對節能解決方案日益增長的需求。

Additionally, our focus on improving our attachment rate for parts and accessories ensures that we provide a more comprehensive customer experience while driving incremental growth.

此外，我們專注於提高零件和配件的附著率，確保我們在推動增量成長的同時提供更全面的客戶體驗。

An additional growth driver is up commercial emergency replacement program, enabling us to better serve a significant segment of the market that we have been unable to fully supply in recent years.

另一個成長動力是商業緊急更換計劃，這使我們能夠更好地服務近年來我們無法完全供應的很大一部分市場。

Second, we are committed to resilient profit margins.

第二，我們致力於維持利潤率的穩定。

Benefits expected from the low GWP product transition, increased productivity from BCS volume improvements and material cost reductions strengthen our ability to deliver consistent and reliable financial performance.

低 GWP 產品轉型所帶來的預期效益、BCS 產量改進帶來的生產力提高以及材料成本降低增強了我們提供一致、可靠的財務表現的能力。

Lastly, we will continue to utilize our Lennox unified management system to deliver superior execution with clear priorities.

最後，我們將繼續利用 Lennox 統一管理系統來提供具有明確優先順序的卓越執行。

Defined M&A strategies, our robust distribution network and ongoing investment in customer satisfaction underscored our commitment to operational excellence.

明確的併購策略、強大的經銷網絡和對客戶滿意度的持續投資凸顯了我們對卓越營運的承諾。

As we look ahead, the investments made over the past two years set the foundation for growth in 2025 with a strong trajectory into 2026 and beyond as we move towards the expansion phase.

展望未來，過去兩年的投資為 2025 年的成長奠定了基礎，隨著我們進入擴張階段，2026 年及以後的投資將呈現強勁成長動能。

With our collective commitment and strategic focus, I am confident that we are not merely executing a ban.

我相信，憑藉我們的集體承諾和策略重點，我們不只是在執行一項禁令。

We are creating a path for ongoing success.

我們正在創造一條持續成功的道路。

We remain confident in our long-term vision and given progress so far.

鑑於我們迄今的進展，我們對我們的長期願景仍然充滿信心。

We believe we will be within the 2026 revenue target range of $5.4 billion to $6 billion and at the high end of our ROA target range of 19% to 21%.

我們相信，2026 年我們的營收將達到 54 億美元至 60 億美元的目標範圍，ROA 也將達到 19% 至 21% 的目標範圍的高端。

The prebuy dynamics in 2024 will create impact into 2025, which is expected to normalize by the end of this year.

2024 年的預購動態將對 2025 年產生影響，預計今年底將恢復正常。

Hence, we anticipate a stronger 2026 has a strategic investment fence continue to drive momentum.

因此，我們預計 2026 年策略投資圍籬將繼續發揮更強勁的推動作用。

Now, let us turn to slide 12.

現在我們翻到第 12 張投影片。

Let me wrap up by summarizing the five reasons that make Lennox an attractive opportunity for all our stakeholders.

最後，讓我總結一下 Lennox 對我們所有利害關係人來說都具有吸引力機會的五個原因。

First, we are 100% focused on North America growth end markets of HV, ACR and accelerating growth through share gains.

首先，我們 100% 專注於北美 HV、ACR 的成長終端市場，並透過份額成長來加速成長。

Second, we are expanding our resilient profit margins through pricing, productivity and mix optimization.

其次，我們透過定價、生產力和產品組合優化來擴大我們的彈性利潤率。

Third, we deliver superior execution through the Lennox unified management system.

第三，我們透過Lennox統一管理系統實現卓越的執行力。

Fourth, we are in advanced technology industry leader with high efficiency products and services, supported by a digital customer ecosystem.

第四，我們是先進技術產業的領導者，擁有高效率的產品和服務，並由數位化客戶生態系統提供支援。

Fifth, we win because our exceptional talent and culture is defined by our core values and guiding behaviors.

第五，我們之所以能成功，是因為我們卓越的人才和文化是由我們的核心價值和指導行為所決定的。

Our pay-for-performance philosophy ensures that our internal goals are closely aligned with those of our shareholders.

我們的績效付酬理念確保我們的內部目標與股東的目標緊密結合。

As I look forward, I remain confident that our best days are ahead.

展望未來，我堅信我們最好的日子就在前方。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We will be happy to answer your questions now.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

Angela, let's go to Q&A.

安吉拉，我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Good morning and congrats on another nice quarter.

早上好，恭喜您又度過了一個美好的季度。

I wanted to start with the prebuy.

我想從預購開始。

It most likely will have a bigger and maybe you're expecting, just comment on what your thoughts on why that was?

它很可能會有更大的變化，也許你也期待著，只是評論一下你對為什麼會這樣的想法？

And then what does it mean from 1Q, I think, has barely half.

那麼從第一季來看這意味著什麼呢？

Hey, Ryan.

嘿，瑞安。

Good morning.

早安.

I don't think I heard the second part of the question properly, but the first part on the prebuy of this, we are calling out $125 million in prebuy.

我認為我沒有正確聽清問題的第二部分，但關於預購的第一部分，我們要求預購 1.25 億美元。

As you can imagine, it's the estimate we don't have 100% visibility into the number.

你可以想像，這是一個估計值，我們對這個數字沒有 100% 的了解。

And we know there was some cloudiness because we had temporary share gains that happened in Q4 at some of our competition does what out of products.

我們知道存在一些不確定性，因為我們的市佔率在第四季度出現了暫時的成長，而我們的一些競爭對手的產品則出現了問題。

So, it's a little higher than we expected.

所以，它比我們預期的要高一點。

But I would say it's within the range of expectations are.

但我想說這是在預期範圍內。

And then, Ryan, that second part of your question at the impact to Q1.

然後，Ryan，你問題的第二部分對 Q1 有影響。

Yeah, really the $125 million the pull forward into Q4 from Q1 so we'll see a headwind there.

是的，確實有 1.25 億美元從第一季拉到了第四季度，所以我們會看到阻力。

And also, you'll see that in Q4 in 2025 is the year-over-year comps won't have that as well.

而且，您會發現 2025 年第四季的年比數據也不會那麼好。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

So, $125 million revenue hit 1Q sort of

因此，第一季營收達到 1.25 億美元

[the map].

[地圖]。

(multiple speakers) Okay.

（多位發言者）好的。

And the second question is that a flat volume outlook for their HCS segment?

第二個問題是，他們的 HCS 部門的銷售前景是否持平？

I mean, I think it makes sense to be conservative, but talk about the assumptions behind that.

我的意思是，我認為保守是有道理的，但要討論背後的假設。

So I mean, there's a lot of uncertainty in the market, right?

所以我的意思是，市場上存在著許多不確定性，對嗎？

I mean, you saw existing home sales are at a fairly low level of interest rates, market rates, they continue to be high.

我的意思是，您會看到現有房屋銷售處於相當低的利率水平，市場利率持續居高不下。

So, we're going to based on what we saw in 2024.

因此，我們將根據 2024 年的觀察結果來判斷。

We continue to monitor of flattish industrial volume.

我們持續監測工業產量穩定的情況。

It maybe a little conservative but given the uncertainty in the market, just seem like that's the right assumption to make at this point.

這可能有點保守，但考慮到市場的不確定性，這似乎是目前做出的正確假設。

Yeah, that's fair.

是的，很公平。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

Joe Ritche, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇（Joe Ritche）。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，大家早安。

Great year.

偉大的一年。

So look, historically, you guys have tended to guide very conservatively as I look at the components of this bridge in slide number 10.

所以，從歷史上看，正如我在第 10 張幻燈片中看到這座橋的組成部分時所看到的，你們往往非常保守地進行指導。

It seems like what you're baking in for incremental margin, if I just take into account price mix and inflation is very blow, like I'm calculating something that's low-double digits still.

看起來你為增量利潤所考慮的因素是，如果我只考慮價格組合和通貨膨脹，那麼利潤就會非常低，就像我計算的仍然是低兩位數的數值一樣。

Just help me kind of understand, number one, just where you think there might be some potential cushion in the guide and how to think about that equation between price mix and inflation?

請幫助我理解，第一，您認為指南中可能存在哪些潛在的緩衝，以及如何看待價格組合和通貨膨脹之間的等式？

Hey, Joe. I think there's an opportunity potentially Alok has mentioned there on the volume.

嘿，喬。我認為 Alok 在該卷中提到的機會可能存在。

If interest rates go down, maybe the HCS volume could give us a little bit more (inaudible) who would come through a 30% incrementals.

如果利率下降，也許 HCS 的數量可以為我們帶來更多（聽不清楚），我們將獲得 30% 的增量。

But if you look at the overall guide, it does imply overall margins are approximately flat at 19.4%.

但如果你看一下整體指南，它確實意味著整體利潤率大約持平於 19.4%。

The inflation assumption of 3% might come in a little less, but I think right now feels prudent to keep inflation up there.

3%的通膨假設可能會略低一些，但我認為目前將通膨率保持在這個水平是明智之舉。

And obviously, we as a group are trying to drive as much productivity as possible.

顯然，我們作為一個團隊正在努力盡可能地提高生產力。

So, from a cost productivity perspective, we're going to focus to drive a little bit higher if we can as well.

因此，從成本生產率的角度來看，如果可以的話，我們也將集中精力進一步提高成本生產力。

And I think the bigger issue here is the amount of uncertainty that's present in all.

我認為這裡更大的問題是總體上存在的不確定性。

I mean, if we look at noise around Paris, if you look at noise around migrant labor and labor shortages for our dealers, and if you just look at market rates, interest rates, there's just a lot of uncertainty.

我的意思是，如果我們看看巴黎周圍的噪音，如果你看看我們經銷商的移民勞動力和勞動力短缺周圍的噪音，如果你只看看市場利率、利率，你會發現有很多不確定性。

So, we went with a fairly wide range.

因此，我們選擇的範圍相當廣泛。

I wouldn't call it very conservative, but I think it's consistent with what we have done in the past.

我不會說它非常保守，但我認為這與我們過去所做的一致。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then as I kind of think through just the 1Q number, I think in answering Ryan's questions for the right way to think about things sequentially in HCS, yes, you've got call it $125 million that goes away 4Q to 1Q.

然後，當我思考第一季的數字時，我想在回答 Ryan 關於在 HCS 中按順序思考事物的正確方法的問題時，是的，你必須稱之為 1.25 億美元，從第四季度到第一季度消失了。

And there's typically like, I don't know, mid-single digit sequential step down.

而且通常情況下，我不知道，會出現中等個位數的連續下降。

And so, it is the -- you're still assuming an organic growth in HCS in the first quarter, am I thinking about it correctly?

所以，您仍然假設第一季 HCS 會實現有機成長，我的想法正確嗎？

Well, first of all, the Q1 as an estimate, maybe only in January.

嗯，首先，第一季的數據只是估計，可能只在 1 月。

Some of it could extend to Q2 depending on how dealers convert, they could now already selling the 454B cookware.

其中一些可能會延續到第二季​​度，具體取決於經銷商的轉換方式，他們現在已經可以銷售 454B 炊具了。

And it may just drawing that, you know, a lot in the science somewhere.

它可能只是在科學的某個地方畫出了許多這樣的圖像。

But on the sequential question, maybe Michael can give you some

但關於順序問題，也許麥可可以給你一些

--

--

Yes, I think that's generally close, but not all $125 million was in the HCS segments.

是的，我認為總體上很接近，但並不是所有的 1.25 億美元都投入了 HCS 領域。

I think it was in the BCS segment, but I think it looks at it right.

我認為它屬於 BCS 部分，但我認為它看起來是正確的。

We did have a little bit of our 410A inventory going into the quarter.

我們本季確實有少量 410A 庫存。

Some of this might kind of move into Q2, but predominantly will be in Q1.

其中一些可能會轉移到第二季度，但主要將集中在第一季。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝大家。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Maybe I just wanted to switch and talk for a second to the BCS segment and sort of the guidance there.

也許我只是想轉換主題，談談 BCS 部分以及那裡的指導。

I mean, I think people have been concerned about the revenue outlook there because you don't have a AI exposure or what have you in BCS.

我的意思是，我認為人們一直擔心那裡的收入前景，因為你沒有 AI 經驗或在 BCS 方面有什麼經驗。

And there's some question marks around the (inaudible) funding unwinding into 2026.

而對於 2026 年的資金流出（聽不清楚），還存在一些疑問。

So, maybe just help us understand what you're seeing in the BCS segment top line-wise across different verticals, mid-single digit, underlying volume growth assumption clearly speaks to, I think, at a much healthier market in what a lot of investors have been thinking.

因此，也許可以幫助您了解您在 BCS 部門不同垂直領域的頂線表現，中等個位數的潛在銷售成長假設清楚地表明，我認為，許多投資者一直在思考一個更健康的市場。

So I would say from our perspective, the markets that we saw remain healthy.

因此我想說，從我們的角度來看，我們看到的市場仍然很健康。

And at least this week on Monday, the Chinese have told us that it's good not to have data center exposure in those docks.

至少在本週一，中國人已經告訴我們，最好不要在這些碼頭設立資料中心。

So I think from that perspective, we are not terribly concerned to exposure, there was low or splash there to start with.

因此我認為從這個角度來看，我們並不太擔心曝光，一開始曝光量就很低或很嚴重。

If I look at our exposure, it remains in places such as retail, foodservice, warehouses, big box, DIY-type stores.

如果我看一下我們的曝光度，它仍然在零售、餐飲服務、倉庫、大型商場、DIY 型商店等領域。

And we see the replacement volume, which is primary our sales actually picking up now since we have made the conversion to 40 or 54.

我們看到了替換量，這是主要的，自從我們轉換為40或54以來，我們的銷售額實際上正在回升。

And some of these companies have been waiting to go to the new refrigerant before they put more sales.

其中一些公司一直在等待推出新冷媒，然後再增加銷售量。

Second thing underlying our confidence is that the, clearly, we have a new factory.

讓我們充滿信心的第二件事是，顯然我們有了新工廠。

We were primarily supply-constrained, not demand-constrained, and that was still the case in Q4.

我們主要受到供應限制，而不是需求限制，第四季仍然如此。

So, we do expect us to get more fair share of the market, including emergency replacement that we talked about.

因此，我們確實希望獲得更公平的市場份額，包括我們談到的緊急替代方案。

In terms of your funding for the schools, beyond what I've heard that concern just pay for the IRA would receive most of the programs continue to move forward and some schools are issuing bonds and other things.

關於你對學校的資助，除了我所聽到的之外，只需支付 IRA 的費用就可以使大多數項目繼續向前發展，一些學校正在發行債券和其他東西。

I mean, let's keep in mind this is a nondiscretionary spend in the air conditioning breaks, you can run the schools.

我的意思是，讓我們記住，這是在空調休息期間的非自由支配的開支，你可以用來經營學校。

So from a nature of the replacement program and the nondiscretionary nature that we look at, we don't see that as much impact.

因此，從替代計劃的性質以及我們所看到的非自由支配性質來看，我們並不認為這會產生太大的影響。

And that gives us sufficient confidence on our guide.

這讓我們對我們的指南有了足夠的信心。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

And then just my second one, I don't really want to mention the P word, but if we're thinking about Q1 specifically, and it's been touched on a couple of times, understandably.

然後是我的第二個問題，我真的不想提及 P 字，但如果我們具體考慮 Q1，並且它已經被觸及過幾次，這是可以理解的。

But classically, Q1 in recent years has been a sort of, you know, 16%, 17% of the year's earnings.

但從傳統上看，近年來第一季的收益約佔全年收益的 16% 至 17%。

So, not a huge quarter and understand there's some extra pressure right now because of the refrigerant change.

因此，這不是一個很大的季度，並且要知道，由於冷媒的變化，目前存在一些額外的壓力。

But that's put a finer point on, is the right interpretation, maybe it's a couple of points less of the full-year's earnings in Q1 than one would normally expect.

但這是正確的解釋，更準確地說，第一季的全年收益可能比人們通常預期的要低幾個點。

And then we get the full catch-up in the rest of the year, particularly Q2, with a big mix tailwind coming in.

然後，我們將在今年剩餘時間內全面迎頭趕上，特別是第二季度，將迎來巨大的混合順風。

Yes, Joel.

是的，喬爾。

And I think I would bucket that a little different, maybe look more at the first half just because of the dynamic of things going to shift in Q1 to Q2 is the selling out of the Fortinet.

我認為我會以稍微不同的方式看待這個問題，也許會更專注於上半年，因為第一季到第二季的情況將會發生轉變，而 Fortinet 的銷售情況將會好轉。

So from a revenue perspective, we think kind of the first half will be about 45% of the year, second have been 55%.

因此從收入角度來看，我們認為上半年將佔全年收入的 45% 左右，下半年將佔 55%。

This is a little bit different than the normal kind of 50-50.

這與正常的 50-50 有點不同。

Second half of the year, you'll really start to see the mix benefit of the 454B products coming up, as well as some more of the gains from the new commercial factor in the second half.

今年下半年，您將真正開始看到 454B 產品的混合效益，以及下半年新商業因素帶來的更多收益。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Julian.

謝謝，朱利安。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞凱、奧本海默。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Sort of a location where we've had a couple of years now of regulatory transitions for the company has executed well on and really claim the opportunity around pricing and share gains.

我們已經經歷了幾年的監管轉型，公司表現良好，並且真正獲得了定價和份額成長的機會。

You mentioned in some of the factors that went into the thinking include potential tariffs and labor and other considerations have brought about by the administration's page.

您提到的一些考慮因素包括潛在的關稅和勞動力以及政府頁面帶來的其他考慮。

So, how do you think about your opportunities related to that.

那麼，您如何看待與此相關的機會？

For example, if we do have a comparison, USMCA partners and others, perhaps that could be a pricing opportunity for perhaps with your investments, there are some share gain opportunities there.

例如，如果我們確實有一個比較，USMCA 合作夥伴和其他人，也許這可能是一個定價機會，也許透過您的投資，那裡有一些份額成長機會。

The central question is how are you thinking about contingency planning and responding to any potential changes?

核心問題是您如何考慮應急計劃並應對任何潛在的變化？

Sure.

當然。

Noah, that's a great question.

諾亞，這個問題問得真好。

And things remain very dynamic, as you know.

正如你所知，事態仍然非常活躍。

But if we take each of these, if tariffs come into more in China and less than Mexico, Canada, we would be net beneficiary as we have done a really good job of reducing our supply chain reliance on China.

但如果我們把這些都考慮進去，如果中國的關稅高於墨西哥和加拿大，而低於墨西哥和加拿大，我們將是淨受益者，因為我們在減少供應鏈對中國的依賴方面做得很好。

And the fact that we did the Samsung JV also means that things are (inaudible) are now coming from Korea, not from China.

我們與三星建立合資企業也意味著產品（聽不清楚）現在來自韓國，而不是中國。

So I think that, in hindsight, not just dependent on the Samsung's better-quality product, but awarding many tariffs from China would be a big win for us

所以我認為，事後看來，不僅依賴三星更優質的產品，而且從中國獲得許多關稅對我們來說將是一個巨大的勝利

So if tariff is coming in from Mexico, 40% of the industry capacity is in Mexico, roughly, which means we'll all have to work through offsetting with productivity, seeing the impact of any Peso devaluation, but then offset with price.

因此，如果關稅來自墨西哥，那麼大約 40% 的行業產能在墨西哥，這意味著我們都必須透過提高生產力來抵消，看到比索貶值的影響，然後用價格來抵消。

So, we look at that price going to be incremental to what we are positioned here.

因此，我們認為價格將會根據我們目前的定位而增加。

But clearly, there will be a delay in timing, given I'm not sure how much time and we would have to react to any status and tariffs announcement.

但顯然，時間上會有所延遲，因為我不確定我們需要多少時間來對任何狀態和關稅公告做出反應。

On the labor piece of this and this will be no impact to our factories and some of the fleet.

就勞動力方面而言，這不會對我們的工廠和部分船隊產生影響。

We had a different type of employer versus people who might be doing construction on HVC installed in the field.

我們的雇主類型與可能在現場安裝 HVC 進行施工的人員不同。

I think what does that happen with that is since replacements require less scale and less label versus massive repair, I think the repair versus replacement trend would probably continue shifting more towards replacement as the units are harder to repair that requires much more skilled labor and not more labor versus the higher ticket item to just to test full replacement.

我認為，由於與大規模維修相比，更換所需的規模更小、標籤更少，我認為維修與更換的趨勢可能會繼續向更換轉變，因為這些設備更難維修，需要更多熟練勞動力，而不是更多勞動力，而更高價位的物品只是為了測試全面更換。

But from our contingency planning, and obviously being close to our customers, close to our dealers, making sure that we can address any of those concerns.

但從我們的應急計畫來看，顯然我們與客戶、與經銷商保持密切聯繫，確保我們能夠解決任何這些問題。

And also continue to monitor tariffs and work on supply chain redundancies because we are now have a much heavier dual source focus than we had two years ago, giving us flexibility and supply chain movements.

同時，我們也會繼續監控關稅並致力於解決供應鏈冗餘問題，因為與兩年前相比，我們現在更加重視雙重來源，這為我們提供了靈活性和供應鏈流動。

Finally, the last thing on the consumer side, which is probably going to have the biggest impact.

最後，關於消費者方面的最後一件事可能會產生最大的影響。

We just need to watch consumer confidence, interest rates, mortgage rates and help our dealers offset any weaknesses that come in either through financing programs, either through they are really more education to the consumer and keep working with new homebuilders and others which are more guaranteed volume for us.

我們只需要專注於消費者信心、利率和抵押貸款利率，並透過融資計劃幫助我們的經銷商抵消任何出現的弱點，或者透過對消費者進行更多的教育，並繼續與新的房屋建築商和其他為我們帶來更多銷售保證的人合作。

So, I hope that answered your question as how it was a little winded.

所以，我希望這能回答你的問題，因為它有點喘不過氣。

No, it was comprehensive, and I realized that in some respects, it was a multi-part question.

不，它是全面的，而且我意識到在某些方面，它是一個由多部分組成的問題。

So out of respect the colleagues, I'll pull back myself offline and follow up then.

因此，出於對同事的尊重，我將退出線下，然後再進行跟進。

So, thank you very much.

所以，非常感謝。

Thanks, Noah.

謝謝，諾亞。

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

Good morning and thank you for taking my question.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

I want to start on the topic of your 454B pricing.

我想開始討論您的 454B 定價問題。

Are we still thinking 10 or maybe 10 plus percent?

我們仍舊考慮 10% 或許是 10% 以上嗎？

There's at least one OEM in the market that's less disciplined than that.

市場上至少有一家 OEM 的紀律性比這更差。

And if we just look at the mix guide for Home Comfort anyway, in the mid-growth range, maybe you could bridge from whatever the 454 contribution as to how you get that up mid-single?

而且，如果我們只看家庭舒適度的混合指南，在中等增長範圍內，也許您可以從 454 的貢獻中找到如何將其提升到中等水平的方法？

Sure, Tommy.

當然，湯米。

Yes, I'll give you some more clarity on that.

是的，我會給你更清楚的解釋。

Our plan is still a 10% price increase on average on the 454B product and that equates to about 70% of revenue in the HCS segment.

我們的計劃仍然是將 454B 產品的價格平均提高 10%，相當於 HCS 部門收入的 70% 左右。

And as we've been talking about, we're going to continue to sell through some 410A equipment in the first half of this year.

正如我們一直在談論的，我們將在今年上半年繼續銷售一些 410A 設備。

So, it will take a little bit of time due to bleed into the 454B products.

因此，由於滲入 454B 產品，將需要一點時間。

And we think about 65% of the full year will be sales of that 454B products.

我們認為全年銷售額的 65% 將來自這 454B 款產品。

So kind of do all that math, it dilutes down to that mid-single digit mix benefit for Home Comfort Solutions.

因此，進行所有這些計算，它會稀釋到家庭舒適解決方案的中位數混合收益。

And on the competitive question, Tommy, I mean, we have heard that too, but I also think people are talking about 2024 pricing because some of the OEM's release for 454 in 2024 and we believe 2025 percent pricing.

關於競爭問題，Tommy，我的意思是，我們也聽說過這個，但我認為人們正在談論 2024 年的定價，因為一些 OEM 將在 2024 年發布 454，我們相信 2025% 的定價。

So, we are optimistic that as we take this forward, all the OEMs will be adjusting price in 2025.

因此，我們樂觀地認為，隨著我們推進這項計劃，所有 OEM 都將在 2025 年調整價格。

That typically happens in the first quarter, anyway.

無論如何，這通常發生在第一季。

Thank you, both.

謝謝你們兩位。

And as a follow-up, I wanted to unpack the home volume outlook a bit.

作為後續問題，我想稍微解析一下房屋銷售的前景。

So where you talked about the prebuy, the mid-single digit headwind and then the separate volume callout you have there is flat.

因此，當您談到預購時，中等個位數的逆風以及隨後的單獨交易量標註都是持平的。

I just want to make sure I'm interpreting this correctly.

我只是想確保我的解釋正確。

For the volumes that you would report in your financial, you didn't have those two together should be a mid-single headwind.

對於您在財務報告中要報告的數量，您沒有將這兩者結合起來，而應該形成中等單一逆風。

Maybe you could just clarify how we should think about that.

也許您可以澄清一下我們應該如何看待這個問題。

That's exactly right.

完全正確。

That's exactly how to look at it.

這正是應該看待它的方式。

And then if we take that mid-singles headwind for the segment level, can you give us any sense of the sell end versus the sell through assumptions you're making there?

那麼，如果我們將中等單曲逆風視為細分水平，您能否向我們介紹銷售端與銷售通過率的假設？

I think you can see in the results from the fourth quarter.

我想您可以從第四季度的業績中看到這一點。

We were more impacted in that channel for the sell in the two-step channel, but we did see a little bit of a prebuy on the sell through as well.

我們在該通路中受到的兩步驟通路銷售影響更大，但我們也確實看到了銷售中的一點預購。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'll turn it back.

我會把它轉回去。

Chris Snyder with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Appreciate the question.

我很感謝你提出這個問題。

You guys talked to $125 million prebuy in Q4, but if I kind of look at it in here about a 2% headwind on a regular five billion-plus revenue base, does that imply that there's maybe like a similar amount of prebuy in the Q3 numbers as well or am I missing something in that math?

你們談到了第四季度 1.25 億美元的預購，但如果我把它看作是 50 多億美元常規收入基數上 2% 的逆風，這是否意味著第三季度的預購金額也可能類似，還是我遺漏了什麼計算？

Yes, Chris, that is a great question.

是的，克里斯，這是一個很好的問題。

So, what happens is if I take that one $125 million first, we will get the destocking impact of that.

因此，如果我先拿出 1.25 億美元，我們就會得到去庫存的影響。

And let's say that in the Q1, Q2 and then the Q4 timeframe to Q4 2025, we will fix difficult comps so that kind of impact you twice, right?

假設在第一季、第二季以及到 2025 年第四季的第四季時間範圍內，我們將解決困難的問題，這會對您產生雙重影響，對嗎？

So from that our perspective, that's why the number seems twice.

所以從我們的角度來看，這就是為什麼這個數字看起來是兩倍。

And then in Q1 2026, you'll get that benefit back, right.

然後在 2026 年第一季度，您將獲得該福利，對吧。

So one of the destocking at the comp impact, right.

因此，去庫存化對企業的影響之一就是如此。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I really appreciate that.

我真的很感激。

So, I guess the assumption is that there wasn't a material prebuy impact in Q3.

因此，我猜測假設是第三季沒有產生實質的預購影響。

And then maybe just following up on that, I know it's kind of hard to imagine to triangulate and pinpoint what the prebuy is, I'll just be interested in how you guys went about doing it.

然後也許只是跟進一下，我知道很難想像要三角測量並確定預購是什麼，我只是對你們如何做到這一點感興趣。

This is obviously a lot of focus on that as of '25.

顯然，從 25 年開始，這一點備受關注。

Thank you.

謝謝。

But first of all, thank you for acknowledging and we had met that.

但首先，感謝您的承認，我們已經實現了這一點。

It is not easy, not at it precisely accurate, right.

這並不容易，甚至不完全準確，對吧。

We think we are directionally correct, not precisely accurate on 125.

我們認為我們的方向是正確的，但在 125 上並不完全準確。

So, but we just wanted to give a clean number.

所以，但我們只是想給一個乾淨的數字。

We did not incorporate any prebuys.

我們沒有納入任何預購。

We did have last call on 410A, so that may have forced some distributors in order to hold a prebuy.

我們確實對 410A 進行了最後一次調用，因此這可能迫使一些分銷商進行預購。

We remain fairly neutral.

我們保持相當中立。

And no, we did not switch all our lines over to 454B as some of our competitors did.

不，我們並沒有像我們的一些競爭對手那樣將所有線路切換到 454B。

And we only did that at the tail end of the year, and we delayed that as much as possible.

我們只是在年底才這樣做，並且盡可能地推遲了這一時間。

I believe that lead to better availability for Lennox products in the marketplace when it comes to 410A product.

我相信，就 410A 產品而言，這將使 Lennox 產品在市場上的供應更加充足。

And that gave us share gain in addition to the prebuy impact that we are talking about.

除了我們所說的預購影響之外，這也為我們帶來了份額成長。

Our goal is, of course, keep as much of that share gain as we can.

當然，我們的目標是盡可能保持份額成長。

But realistically speaking, we have baked in that we are unlikely to keep all the share gain that we had had.

但現實地說，我們已經考慮到我們不太可能保留我們已經獲得的所有份額成長。

And that's one reason we have been more muted in the volume outlook for 2025.

這就是我們對 2025 年銷售前景持謹慎態度的原因之一。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

瑞穗的布雷特‧林澤 (Brett Linzey)。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

First question is on the new commercial Mexico facility.

第一個問題是關於墨西哥新的商業工廠。

So, you're moving from the piloting to the production instead of a timeline.

因此，您正從試運行轉向生產，而不是按照時間表。

Are you able to quantify what you're embedding in 2025 in terms of the volume contribution and better throughput there?

您能否根據數量貢獻和更好的吞吐量來量化您在 2025 年嵌入的內容？

Yes.

是的。

If you look at the volume, (inaudible) were up about mid-single digits.

如果你看一下音量，（聽不清楚）上升了大約個位數的中間值。

There's a few points in there for share gain, which would be predominantly related to the new factory supply improvement.

其中有幾個與份額增長有關的點，主要與新工廠供應改善有關。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

I imagine that's a little more back-end loaded, or should we think about that as progressing evenly through the year?

我想這會給後端帶來更多負擔，還是我們應該認為這會在全年均勻進展？

Little more back-end loaded, I mean, the season for emergency replacement is predominantly Q2 to Q3.

後端負載稍微大一點，我的意思是，緊急更換的季節主要是第二季到第三季。

So, starting more than late Q2 into Q3 is when you'll start to ramp up.

因此，從第二季末到第三季度，你就會開始加速發展。

And then just a follow-up on the inefficiencies in the existing facility.

然後只是對現有設施的低效率進行跟進。

Maybe just a finer point there was that was that Arkansas late in the year?

也許一個更細微的差別在於那是在阿肯色州年底嗎？

And then any update on the status of those improvements into January?

那麼，到一月份這些改進的情況有什麼更新嗎？

I think the existing facility inefficiencies were related to the startup as we got a lot of components from Stuttgart during ramp-up to send to Mexico into trial runs and otherwise.

我認為現有設施效率低下與啟動有關，因為我們在產能提升期間從斯圖加特獲得了很多零件，然後運往墨西哥進行試運行等。

But yes, that was late in the year, and it wasn't the higher end of what we were expecting so those inefficiencies, which, obviously, we will capture back in 2025 as we have to the ramp-up phase.

但是的，那是在年底了，而且它還沒有達到我們預期的高端，所以那些效率低下的問題，顯然，我們會在 2025 年隨著我們進入上升階段而解決。

But yes, it was Stuttgart and the ramp-up vision to Saltillo, but Stuttgart was a bigger impact.

但是，是的，這是斯圖加特和薩爾蒂約的升級願景，但斯圖加特的影響更大。

The factory in Stuttgart is doing much better.

斯圖加特的工廠經營狀況好得多。

And frankly, having the new factory in Saltillo means we are going to reduce the number of SKUs we manufacture in Stuttgart.

坦白說，在薩爾蒂約建立新工廠意味著我們將減少在斯圖加特生產的 SKU 數量。

Some of the emergency replacement skews move over to sort of Saltillo so we are more optimistic on recovering.

一些緊急替代方案已轉移到薩爾蒂約，因此我們對復甦更樂觀。

But as you know, that's been a difficult factory for many years.

但正如你所知，多年來這一直是一個困難的工廠。

So fingers crossed, we are optimistic for this year.

因此，我們祝福今年一切順利，並充滿信心。

I appreciate the insight.

我很欣賞你的見解。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬‧奧迪亞 (Joe O’Dea)。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

I think, Michael, you touched on maybe the inflation has a bit of conservatism in there, but can you unpack that a little bit?

邁克爾，我認為你提到通貨膨脹可能帶有一點保守主義的因素，你能稍微解釋一下嗎？

And that's 3% inflation, presumably costs across all costs?

通貨膨脹率為 3%，大概所有成本都是這樣吧？

And so, you're talking sort of labor materials, freight, all in bundled.

所以，你談論的是勞動材料、貨運，全部綁在一起。

And anything in particular where you're seeing more of sort of inflationary headwinds coming through?

您是否特別看到了更多通膨阻力的出現？

Yes.

是的。

It's on average on all of our costs, we have about $4 billion of costs.

我們所有成本的平均金額約為 40 億美元。

We're seeing higher inflation at (inaudible), around healthcare and some of the wages.

我們發現（聽不清楚）、醫療保健和部分薪資領域的通膨率正在上升。

They're more than the three a little bit lower on the commodity side.

在商品方面，它們比上述三家公司略低。

But in general, kind of blends, the three.

但整體來說，這三種都是混合的。

I think we'll continue to watch it.

我想我們會繼續關注。

Like I said, it could be some conservativism, but inflation definitely continued to exist in the especially on some of the SG&A side.

正如我所說的，這可能是一些保守主義，但通貨膨脹肯定仍然存在，特別是在銷售、一般和行政費用方面。

And keep in mind that some of the tariff uncertainty impact that as well.

請記住，部分關稅的不確定性也會對此產生影響。

Tariffs and things like steel, then we clearly want to acknowledge that and be prepared for that.

對於關稅和鋼鐵等產品，我們顯然希望承認這一點，並做好準備。

Right.

正確的。

But I guess so the idea is that that price in the revenue bridge of up one in compares to inflation of three.

但我想，這樣的想法是，與通貨膨脹率三倍相比，收入橋的價格上漲了一倍。

So you're not going out to the market and saying we got, you know, we have a right to get more because the costs were getting burden.

因此，你不會去市場說我們得到了，你知道，我們有權利得到更多，因為成本正在增加負擔。

Correct.

正確的。

And then we have some of that through the mix as well that we're getting a little bit better incrementals to cover for some of that.

然後，我們也透過混合獲得了一些更好的增量來彌補其中的一些問題。

But we're also looking to drive more productivity as well.

但我們也希望提高生產力。

Keep in mind the 454B, we could afford and mix and price.

請記住 454B，我們可以負擔得起，並且可以混合定價。

You put that in mix.

你把它混合起來。

So, you got to pick up a lot of (inaudible) covering inflation.

因此，你必須收集大量（聽不清楚）資訊來應對通貨膨脹。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And then just as it relates to the 454B price and the 10% you talked about, which I think is the HCS side, not the BCS side.

然後，正如您所說的 454B 價格和 10% 相關一樣，我認為這是 HCS 方面，而不是 BCS 方面。

But that 10%, at what point in the year, or do you think you'll have confidence and visibility to kind of realization.

但是那 10%，在一年中的任何時候，或者您認為您會有信心和可見性去實現它。

Just we so we can think about the seasonality of the business and you're trying to understand when you really get a good sense of that 10% sticking.

這樣，我們就可以考慮業務的季節性，並試著了解何時真正感受到 10% 的堅持。

I think the mid to late Q2, when we get a good sense because we also have some of the OEMs have not announced a 2025 pricing so that's when we'll get a good sense of it.

我認為在第二季度中後期，我們會有一個很好的了解，因為我們也有一些 OEM 尚未宣布 2025 年的定價，所以那時我們會對此有一個很好的了解。

But so far, the early signs are positive.

但迄今為止，早期跡像是積極的。

I mean, there's no reason for us to be concerned about it.

我的意思是，我們沒有理由擔心這件事。

The reason the impact is what we called our business is 70% of 70% of that 10%.

影響的原因是我們所謂的業務是那 10% 的 70% 的 70%。

And that's why you kind of see the numbers what they are between progressively as we go towards the second half, we have a greater portion of that getting captured, but they cannot right now.

這就是為什麼你會看到這些數字逐漸變化，當我們進入下半年時，我們有更多的機會被捕獲，但他們現在還不能。

There's no reason to be able or are we concerned with that number?

沒有理由能夠做到這一點或我們關心這個數字嗎？

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc.

傑夫·哈蒙德，KeyBanc。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

I guess just a few cleanup.

我想只需要進行一些清理工作。

So just on the Mexican production, you said industry capacity 40%.

因此，僅就墨西哥的產量而言，您說產業產能為 40%。

Can you just level set us on what your mix is?

您能簡單告訴我們您的混音等級嗎？

And if there's any particular OEMs or we have particularly lower mix versus the industry?

如果有特定的 OEM 或我們的產品組合相對於產業而言特別低？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, I guess we have just looked at all the different OEMs and looked at other reports and come with that number.

我的意思是，我想我們剛剛查看了所有不同的 OEM 並查看了其他報告並得出了這個數字。

So I wouldn't say it's precisely accurate, staff is directionally correct.

所以我不會說它完全準確，工作人員的方向是正確的。

For our perspective, we make the low and mid-end products are in there.

從我們的角度來看，我們生產的是低端和中端產品。

And we have been previously talked about the debt tariffs.

我們之前已經討論過債務關稅問題。

We believe about $1 billion of our 20% of our output would be impacted through that since we make our premium products in US, and we also have three residential factories.

我們認為，我們 20% 的產量中約有 10 億美元將受到影響，因為我們在美國生產優質產品，而且我們還有三家住宅工廠。

Commercially, so far, all our production was in US and none in Mexico.

從商業角度來看，到目前為止，我們所有的生產都在美國，沒有在墨西哥生產。

So, we're just starting on that together.

所以，我們才剛開始一起做這件事。

But we do know many of our competitors often sometime in the same geographic area within Mexico that the manufacturing to Mexico has now.

但我們確實知道，我們的許多競爭對手通常位於墨西哥境內的同一地理區域，而現在製造業已轉移到墨西哥。

So we think the 40% number, it's about, right, obviously more skewed towards residential versus commercial.

所以我們認為 40% 這個數字顯然更偏向住宅而非商業。

So you'd say today, you're probably below that industry average?

所以您會說今天您的表現可能低於行業平均嗎？

Slightly below, but it depends on which OEM, right?

略低，但這取決於哪個 OEM，對嗎？

For some OEMs, we are significantly below.

對於某些 OEM，我們的價格明顯低於這個數字。

With some OEMs, we actually a little bit higher.

對於一些 OEM，我們的價格實際上要高一些。

So, it just goes OEM by OEM, Jeff.

所以，傑夫，它只是透過 OEM 進行生產。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then just on this distribution margin focus, can you just level set us on kind of progress over the past year?

然後僅就分銷利潤率這一重點，您能否為我們介紹過去一年的進展？

What are the some of the big opportunities this year?

今年有哪些重大機會？

And do you think you'll start to to move those margins up or is that a longer longer timeframe?

您認為您會開始提高這些利潤率嗎，或者這需要更長的時間框架？

It is over a long time frame, but some of the results that you see today are based on that initiative as well.

這是一個長期的過程，但您今天看到的一些成果也是基於這項舉措。

If you think of Etsy as we did ago, a record ROS.

如果您像我們以前一樣看待 Etsy，那麼就會創下 ROS 記錄。

And you've followed us for a long period of time, and that is consistent with us getting more distributor margins.

而且您已經關注我們很長一段時間了，這與我們獲得更多分銷商利潤是一致的。

Realized lot of the incentive changes that we made and the reorganization that we did happen at the end of Q2 in 2024.

我們意識到我們所做的許多激勵變革和重組確實發生在 2024 年第二季末。

I think some of those results are just coming through, but that's a long journey, right?

我認為其中一些結果剛剛出現，但這是一個漫長的旅程，對嗎？

We've talked about manufacturers, both distributor margin is higher than our 2026 targets.

我們已經討論過製造商和分銷商的利潤率都高於我們 2026 年的目標。

So, I think that continues beyond 2026.

所以我認為這種情況會持續到 2026 年以後。

But progress so far, given the confidence to say that we would be on the high-end of our previously targets for 2026.

但迄今為止我們已經取得了進展，我們有信心說我們將達到 2026 年先前目標的高水準。

And what your parts and accessories mix today and what do you think in total minus?

那麼，您今天混合了哪些零件和配件，以及您認為總共減去什麼？

Hasn't changed much over the past year and we remain at about 20-ish percent in parts and accessories.

在過去的一年裡沒有太大的變化，零件和配件的銷售額仍然保持在 20% 左右。

I'm confident (inaudible) twice that much, but we've been talking about that for many years.

我有信心（聽不清楚）這個數字是兩倍，但我們已經談論這個問題很多年了。

And I think it's finally time to show some results for the next few months and years.

我認為現在是時候展示未來幾個月和幾年的一些成果了。

But entitlement remains high and our current volume remains low.

但權益仍然很高，而我們目前的數量仍然很低。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Alok.

謝謝，阿洛克。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)。

Yes, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

Good morning, guys.

大家早安。

A lot of ground has been covered here, but I guess maybe just some cleanups for me.

這裡已經涵蓋了很多內容，但我想對我來說可能只是一些清理工作。

How are you guys thinking about new construction versus replacement demand within HCS for 2025?

你們如何看待 2025 年 HCS 中的新建築與更換需求？

New construction is about 20% of that segment.

新建築約佔該部分的20%。

We think it's going to be kind of flattish.

我們認為它將比較平穩。

But the big driver there is going to be if interest rates continue to go down.

但如果利率繼續下降，將產生巨大的推動力。

If it goes down, we think that there's pent-up demand in that space for new home construction that that could happen.

如果價格下降，我們認為該地區對新房屋建設有被壓抑的需求，這種情況可能會發生。

But it's obviously labor challenges as well on that side of the year.

但今年那段時間顯然也存在著勞動力上的挑戰。

The industry, too, is making sure that can keep up with with the demand.

該行業也在確保能夠滿足需求。

So, it's mostly interest rate driven, but kind of flattish within the guide.

因此，它主要是受利率驅動，但在指南範圍內比較平穩。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

Understood.

明白了。

And then just thinking through kind of the margin dynamics by segment, I know you guys don't give official margin guidance by segment, but it's directionally right way to think about it.

然後，只要思考一下按部門劃分的利潤率動態，我知道你們沒有給出按部門劃分的官方利潤率指導，但從方向上看，這是正確的思考方式。

Maybe HCS could be a bit more challenged year on year, given some of the prebuy in 2024 and then BCS should be up.

考慮到 2024 年的一些預購，HCS 可能逐年面臨更大的挑戰，然後 BCS 應該會上漲。

And I guess, you know, is it fair to assume that BCS sees more margin expansion in the second half, some of the new plant ramp-up costs roll-off?

我想，您知道，是否可以合理地假設 BCS 在下半年的利潤率將進一步擴大，部分新工廠的產能提升成本將下降？

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's correct.

沒錯。

The overall margin guides about flat up in BCS down in ACS.

整體利潤率在BCS中大致持平，在ACS中下降。

A larger portion of the $50 million of productivity will be BCS, which is a big driver of that margin expansion.

5000 萬美元生產力中的很大一部分將是 BCS，這是利潤率擴大的重要推動力。

That will kind of happen throughout the year with volume gains, share gains will mostly be in the second half for BCS as that factory ramps up.

這種現象將在全年出現，隨著工廠產能擴大，BCS 的銷售和份額成長將主要出現在下半年。

Thanks, Michael.

謝謝，麥可。

I'll pass it on.

我會傳達的。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I'll echo some of the previous comments you provided some really good calibration on what you think the prebuy was for you guys and a lot -- could you expand a bit?

我會重複您之前的一些評論，您提供了一些非常好的校準，關於您認為預購對您來說意味著什麼 - 您能稍微擴展一下嗎？

You referenced some of your competitors who had stock-outs because they switched over earlier.

您提到，您的部分競爭對手由於較早轉換業務而出現缺貨情況。

How much of a surprise was that, how tactical are you and how you position in the fourth quarter?

這有多令人驚訝，你的戰術如何，在第四節你的定位如何？

And could you give us a sense of the individual months played out?

能為我們介紹一下各月份的進展嗎？

Was it a big windfall in December or was it level loaded?

這是 12 月的一大筆意外之財，還是只是平倉？

Yes.

是的。

First of all, we were not surprised that a competitor had a misstep, almost always happens in any of this regulatory transition.

首先，我們並不驚訝競爭對手的失誤，這在任何監管轉型過程中幾乎都會發生。

But yes, we were surprised as to which compensate that had misstep.

但是的，我們對哪些補償發生了失誤感到驚訝。

I mean, we would have expected somebody else to have events.

我的意思是，我們原本期望其他人也能舉辦活動。

So from that perspective, there was a bit of a surprise.

所以從這個角度來看，這有點令人驚訝。

How it impacted us was like we were fully loaded, and we had really high fill rates throughout, so we were able to capture additional share.

它對我們的影響就像我們已經滿載運轉，而且我們的填充率始終很高，因此我們能夠獲得額外的份額。

Now, the challenge is to take that share and make it more of a permanent share and we know that's going to be a challenge and we bake that in.

現在，挑戰是將這一份額變為永久份額，我們知道這將是一個挑戰，我們將其融入其中。

In Q4, it was fairly even across all three months.

在第四季度，三個月內的情況相當均衡。

And part of it was driven by just beginning to anything we could manufacture we were selling.

部分原因是我們剛開始生產並銷售任何我們能生產的東西。

So, it was more constrained by manufacturing capacity and where we had different inventory station in our supply chain.

因此，它更多地受到製造能力和供應鏈中不同庫存站的限制。

Some of the 10 per share gain did start in Q3.

每股 10 美元的收益確實部分始於第三季。

Certainly, I think from the share again that happened, and we remain very optimistic that we'll convert part of that to more permanent share gain.

當然，我認為從份額來看這種情況再次發生，我們仍然非常樂觀地認為我們將把其中的一部分轉化為更持久的份額增長。

But tactically, our response was, you know, we were very selective to make sure that customers that we took on where customers would stay with us for more permanent and we're not buying from us during the stock-out.

但從戰術上講，我們的反應是，我們非常有選擇性，以確保我們接待的客戶能夠與我們保持更長久的合作關係，並且我們不會在缺貨期間從我們這裡購買。

So, I think we are able to gain some new customers and convert some liability from getting existing customers as well.

因此，我認為我們能夠獲得一些新客戶，也能將獲得現有客戶帶來的一些責任轉化成利潤。

Yes.

是的。

Let's be clear, that's a high-quality problem to have to talk about temporary market share and windfall from a prebuy, a tough comp so that's -- I appreciate all the calibration.

讓我們明確一點，這是一個高品質的問題，必須談論暫時的市場份額和預購的意外之財，這是一個艱難的比較，所以 - 我感謝所有的校準。

And then the second question, Alok, can you expand on your comment where you said some of your best deals in 2024 of those that you did not do.

然後第二個問題，Alok，你能否擴展你的評論，其中你提到了 2024 年你沒有做的一些最好的交易。

Was it just a question of price, but I have a hunch there's probably a there was a data center opportunity that you passed on?

這僅僅是一個價格問題嗎？

But any kind of color there would be helpful.

但任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

There were data center opportunity that we passed on.

我們錯過了資料中心的機會。

There was international expansion opportunities that we passed on.

我們錯過了國際擴張的機會。

There was some domestic consolidation opportunities that we passed on as well.

我們也錯過了一些國內的整合機會。

It all came down to a very disciplined framework, it may help having a conservative CFO, to give Michael some credit for this, right.

一切都歸結為一個非常嚴謹的框架，擁有一位保守的財務長可能會有所幫助，對此給予邁克爾一些讚揚，對吧。

I mean, we have ROIC target.

我的意思是，我們有 ROIC 目標。

We are kind of don't wear rose-colored glasses to look at the industry.

我們不應該戴著玫瑰色的眼鏡來看待這個行業。

And we feel that often we can get more share with better execution was going and buying share through M&A.

我們認為，透過更好的執行並透過併購購買份額，我們往往能夠獲得更多的份額。

So, I think we were kind of proud of those costs.

所以，我認為我們對這些成本感到自豪。

I was hoping somebody would catch on to my comment.

我希望有人能理解我的評論。

We had started fund with that comment when we were writing the script.

我們在寫劇本的時候就已經用那則評論開始籌資了。

All right.

好的。

Good, glad I didn't much down a lot.

很好，很高興我沒有損失太多。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科（Nigel Coe），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Alok, maybe can you -- maybe just dig into the BCS volume guidance for the year, up in the mid-single-digits.

Alok，也許你可以——也許只是深入研究今年的 BCS 交易量指導，上升到中等個位數。

Any way to quantify how much is baked into the (inaudible) ramp-up?

有什麼方法可以量化（聽不清楚）成長中包含了多少內容？

And I'm thinking is it industry flattish and that's mid-single digits is all share gain, anything that would be helpful.

我在想這是否是行業平穩發展，中等個位數的增長都是份額增長，任何有幫助的事情。

Yes.

是的。

We think there's a little bit of market growth.

我們認為市場還有一點成長。

And remember, we have three businesses, a service business, refrigeration and an

記住，我們有三項業務，一項服務業務，一項冷凍業務，一項

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

It's a little bit of market growth, but about one or two points of that would be a share gain, specifically around emergency replacement.

這是一點兒市場成長，但其中大約一到兩個百分點將是份額成長，特別是在緊急替換方面。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just back to 410A, I don't know if you want to sort of put your industry it had on.

然後回到 410A，我不知道您是否想對其所屬的行業進行一番探討。

But if you have to have a given the excess image, excess 410A units shipped in 2024, would that be a million or any way to size that.

但如果您必須給出過剩的圖像，那麼 2024 年出貨的過剩 410A 單位數量是否會達到一百萬或以任何方式確定其大小。

And then just thinking about your inventory levels in 4Q, obviously a little bit high Q per Q. Q2, I don't know, $25 million perhaps higher than I would expected.

然後想想你們第四季的庫存水平，顯然每個季度都有點高。

Is that a good way to think about the 410A inventory held at year end?

這是思考年末持有的 410A 庫存的好方法嗎？

So first of all, on the previous one.

首先，談談前一個問題。

A lot of industry report, and I will admit I'm no industry expert, but I think the units are estimated ranges from low end of 300, high end of 600, so it's in that number, not a million.

有很多行業報告，我承認我不是行業專家，但我認為單位的估計範圍從 300 的低端到 600 的高端，所以是這個數字，而不是一百萬。

So, I think it's half a million that we're talking about.

所以，我認為我們談論的是五十萬。

That's the range, and we think it's within that range.

這就是範圍，我們認為它在這個範圍內。

And nobody has more insight to be more precise within that.

沒有人比我們更清楚這一點。

On our own internal inventory, I mean, it was the case of two things, right?

就我們自己的內部庫存而言，我的意思是，有兩種情況，對嗎？

Commercial, we are building up a bit of inventory.

商業方面，我們正在累積一些庫存。

To get into emergency replacement unit inventory position in the local market.

在當地市場進入緊急替換單元庫存狀態。

So, we are building inventory for commercial.

因此，我們正在為商業建立庫存。

And we'll probably see that trend continue in Q1 because Q2 is off-peak season, but that's probably driving diabetes tend to your model there.

我們可能會看到這種趨勢在第一季持續下去，因為第二季度是淡季，但這可能導致糖尿病趨向於您的模型。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thanks, Alok.

謝謝，阿洛克。

Damian Karas, UBS.

瑞銀的 Damian Karas。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Wanted to ask you about the free cash flow guidance.

想問您有關自由現金流指導的問題。

Cash flow, obviously, came in a good bit better than you had expected in 2024.

顯然，2024 年的現金流比你預期的要好得多。

But the guidance for this year, the range is pretty wide.

但今年的指導範圍相當廣泛。

So, could you just maybe spell out the moving pieces there?

那麼，您能否簡單描述那裡移動的部分？

Yes.

是的。

I think if you look at it from a conversion perspective, the midpoint of our free cash flow guide to the midpoint of our net income guidance, it's about 85% conversion.

我認為，如果從轉換的角度來看，我們的自由現金流指南的中點到我們的淨收入指南的中點的轉換率約為 85％。

So, a little below the than compared to the 90% conversion that we've traditionally targeted.

因此，與我們傳統目標 90% 的轉換率相比，該數字略低。

Mostly because of us having to reinvest in inventory both BCS and HCS as we deploy some of that.

主要是因為我們在部署一些 BCS 和 HCS 庫存時必須重新投資。

As well as the capital expenditures continue to be a little bit higher than depreciation.

且資本支出繼續略高於折舊支出。

But we think when we get back into 2026 and beyond, we're going to be well into the 90% again.

但我們認為，到 2026 年及以後，這一比例將再次達到 90%。

High into the range which obviously reflect better performance on receivables and accounts payable initiatives that are related.

此範圍的高值顯然反映了相關應收帳款和應付帳款計畫的較佳表現。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, Alok, you talked a little bit before about potential policy implications from tariffs and integration policy.

然後，阿洛克，您之前談到了關稅和一體化政策可能帶來的政策影響。

Just curious thinking about the pause on IRA funding, is that something that give you some cause for concern at all?

只是好奇地想了一下 IRA 資金暫停的問題，這是否讓你感到擔憂？

Just thinking about your 2026 targets and beyond and what that might mean for our heat pump penetration, where I know you guys are very confident that you'll be gaining some share in the market.

想想你們的 2026 年及以後的目標，以及這對我們的熱泵普及率意味著什麼，我知道你們非常有信心你們將在市場上獲得一些份額。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, I think the good news with the IRA pauses that was not making a huge difference in our volumes in '24 or '23.

我的意思是，我認為愛爾蘭共和軍暫停的好消息並沒有對我們 24 年或 23 年的交易量產生巨大影響。

We are also waiting for that to come through the states and come back to it.

我們也在等待它通過各州實現並回歸。

Now, the tax part of it is already there, right.

現在，稅收部分已經存在了，對吧。

So, the energy efficiency rebates on tax, that has not changed.

因此，能源效率稅收返還並沒有改變。

So no, I think the IT has no, whether it was paused or going on, did not have a material impact for us in '24.

所以，我認為，無論是暫停還是繼續，IT 都沒有對我們在 24 年產生實質影響。

And not going to have a material impact in '25 if new benefits passed.

即使新的福利通過，也不會在25年產生實質影響。

So, it's a bit of a no news for us.

所以，這對我們來說不算什麼新聞。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Steve Tusa with J.P. Morgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

So, I just wanted to kind of clarify a couple of things.

因此，我只是想澄清幾件事。

So, are you guys still saying that there was no prebuy in 3Q?

那麼，你們還說第三季沒有預購嗎？

You're saying that most like the vast majority came in 4Q?

您是說絕大多數都出現在第四季？

Yes, that's true, Steve.

是的，確實如此，史蒂夫。

But also with the caveat that Q3, we did see some share gains, which we were calling the temporary share gain, when some of the OEMs were not to make it not able to fulfill the demand for the ride. (multiple speakers) you might expect was in Q4.

但同時要注意的是，在第三季度，我們確實看到了一些份額增長，我們稱之為暫時的份額增長，因為一些原始設備製造商未能滿足乘車需求。 （多位發言者）您可能預計在第四季。

And then on that share gain, do you think the share gain in 4Q is kind of like commensurate with that rate that you booked in the 3Q or was there any difference?

那麼，就份額增長而言，您認為第四季度的份額增長與第三季度的份額增長是否相當，或者是否存在差異？

Because I obviously, -- I don't think those guys change that.

因為我顯然——我不認為那些人會改變這一點。

Maybe they changed the strategy a little bit, but do you think commensurate split between the share in 3Q?

也許他們稍微改變了策略，但您認為第三季的份額分配是否相稱？

No, I hear you, I think Q4 was less.

不，我明白你的意思，我認為第四季的數據較少。

They did improve their position and then the large, the 454B and they were aggressive in the marketplace with that.

他們確實提升了自己的地位，然後是大型企業，454B，他們憑藉該企業在市場上表現得很積極。

So I think from that perspective, I think share gain was more of a Q3 story.

因此，我認為從這個角度來看，股價成長更多是第三季的故事。

It obviously bled into Q4, but towards the tail end of Q4, I think it was almost all prebuy.

它顯然滲透到了第四季度，但到了第四季度末，我認為幾乎全部都是預購。

Right.

正確的。

So, what happened was you guys they didn't really have a competitive product.

所以，你們的情況是，他們其實沒有有競爭力的產品。

You guys shipped a lot of the 410A gain some share.

你們出貨了大量 410A，獲得了一些份額。

And then when they came with their 454B, those share gains, you know, add a bit.

然後，當他們推出 454B 時，這些份額收益增加了一點。

That kind of got right, slowed down a bit.

這種情況有點正確，速度慢了一點。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

And then on the inflation numbers, the 3%.

然後是通貨膨脹數字，3%。

What is the hard number?

確切的數字是多少？

What's the base on that?

那依據是什麼？

Is that like total cost just sales minus profit or COGs or what is the actual run rate, like the actual number on that?

那是不是總成本就等於銷售額減去利潤或 COG，或者實際運行率是多少，就像那個實際數字？

The absolute number.

絕對數字。

The total cost sales minus profit, about $4 billion of costs.

總成本銷售額減去利潤，約40億美元的成本。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

That's super helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then sorry, one more.

抱歉，還有一次。

Just on Mexico, what is the plan for you guys?

就墨西哥而言，你們有什麼計劃？

What will -- will it be mostly price increases or can you shift some back here if they do go through with some of these things, which I'm not sure that they will.

如果他們確實執行了其中一些措施，那麼主要會是價格上漲嗎？

But if they do, will be mostly price increases or can you shift some stuff back to the US?

但如果他們這麼做的話，主要會是價格上漲嗎，還是可以將某些東西轉移回美國？

So in the short term, besides any impact from Peso devaluation and productivity, it would be mostly pricing.

因此，從短期來看，除了比索貶值和生產力的影響外，主要的影響是定價。

On the long term, if it is a long-term, then yes, we'll start looking at getting more in Marshalltown, more in

從長遠來看，如果是長期的話，那麼是的，我們將開始考慮在馬歇爾敦獲得更多，在

[Orange Book].

[橙皮書]。

I guess some of these factories used to make this product, but to ramp that back up will take us some time.

我想其中一些工廠曾經生產過這種產品，但要恢復生產還需要一些時間。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Appreciate all the color.

欣賞所有的色彩。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑夫‧斯普拉格 (Jeff Sprague)，垂直研究公司。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Just one more on inventory, if I could.

如果可以的話，我只想再問一個關於庫存的問題。

You just said a little bit, but actually your inventories relative to sales, right, were a lot lower than the normal here in the fourth quarter, right.

您剛才說了一點，但實際上，您的庫存相對於銷售額，在第四季度比正常水平低很多，對吧。

So obviously, you're blowing out 410A.

很明顯，你燒掉了 410A。

But if I think about what you said about kind of some commercial inventory build and the fact that inventories look a bit low relative to sales in Q4.

但如果我考慮一下您所說的某種商業庫存建設，以及庫存相對於第四季度的銷售額看起來有點低的事實。

It doesn't really jump out to me that you have a lot of 410A left in house to be pushing into the channel and the first half for first quarter.

我並沒有真正意識到你們公司還有很多 410A 可以推向通路和第一季的上半年。

Maybe can you just sort of triangulate me on that and a little bit more color on the position.

也許您可以對我進行三角測量，並更詳細地說明這個立場。

And maybe a second part of that to Michael.

或許第二部分是給麥可的。

Sorry, just you did give us kind of the 45 55 revenues split, but I guess my question about inventory is going to, you know, you had over absorption in Q4, obviously under-absorption likely in Q1.

抱歉，您剛才給了 45 55 的收入分成比例，但我想我關於庫存的問題是，您知道，您在第四季度吸收了過多的庫存，而在第一季度顯然吸收不足。

Maybe just a little more color on how to think about the margin trajectory would be helpful.

也許對如何思考利潤軌跡多一點了解會有所幫助。

I think it's a good point on the inventory more we're seen as we did have some 410A availability at the end of the year, but a lot of that was prebought into Q4.

我認為庫存情況很好，因為我們在年底確實有一些 410A 可用，但其中許多是在第四季度預先購買的。

So, we're going to kind of sell that through early into Q1.

因此，我們將在第一季初將其銷售出去。

It'll start to mitigate and be gone fully gone by the second quarter.

到第二季它將開始緩解並完全消失。

But I think that's really the depletion of that inventory you're going to start to see going into the first quarter.

但我認為，這確實是庫存的消耗，你將在第一季開始看到這種現象。

And then on the absorption side, you're right.

那麼就吸收方面而言，你是對的。

We will start to ramp up the new 454B product in the first half of the year, and that should give us access to more some more tailwinds in HCS.

我們將在今年上半年開始加大對新的 454B 產品的投入，這將使我們在 HCS 中獲得更多順風。

On the BCS side, though, we're going to have unfavorable comparisons in the first half as we continue to launch that new factory.

不過，在 BCS 方面，由於我們繼續啟動新工廠，因此上半年我們的業績對比將不太樂觀。

Second half of the year, you get a lot better productivity from that absorption on BCS.

下半年，透過吸收 BCS，您將獲得更高的生產力。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I'll leave it there.

我就把它留在那裡。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

Since there are no further questions, this will conclude Lennox's 2024 fourth-quarter and full year conference call.

由於沒有其他問題，Lennox 2024 年第四季和全年電話會議將結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

現在您可以斷開您的線路。