Lennox International Inc (LII) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Lennox third quarter 2024 earnings conference.

歡迎參加 Lennox 2024 年第三季財報會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

提醒一下，此通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Chelsey Pulcheon from Lennox Investor Relations team.

我現在想將會議交給 Lennox 投資者關係團隊的 Chelsey Pulcheon。

Chelsey, please go ahead.

切爾西，請繼續。

Thank you, Margo.

謝謝你，瑪戈。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you for joining us today as we share a remarkable 2024 third quarter results.

感謝您今天加入我們，與我們分享 2024 年第三季的出色業績。

Joining me is CEO, Alok Maskara; and CFO, Michael Quenzer.

與我一起的是首席執行官 Alok Maskara；和財務長邁克爾·昆澤。

Each will share their prepared remarks before we move to the Q&A session.

在我們進入問答環節之前，每個人都將分享他們準備好的演講。

Turning to slide 2, a reminder that during today's call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as outlined on this page.

轉向投影片 2，提醒您在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性聲明，這些聲明受到本頁概述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響。

We may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that management considers relevant indicators of underlying business performance.

我們也可能參考管理階層認為基本業務績效相關指標的某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Please refer to our SEC filings available on our Investor Relations website for additional details, including a reconciliation of all GAAP to non-GAAP measures.

請參閱我們的投資者關係網站上提供的 SEC 文件，以了解更多詳細信息，包括所有 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的調整表。

The earnings release, today's presentation and the webcast archived link for today's call are available on our Investor Relations website at investor.lennox.com.

收益發布、今天的演示以及今天電話會議的網路廣播存檔連結可在我們的投資者關係網站 Investor.lennox.com 上取得。

Now please turn to slide 3 as I turn the call over to our CEO, Alok Maskara.

現在請翻到投影片 3，我將把電話轉給我們的執行長 Alok Maskara。

Thank you, Chelsey.

謝謝你，切爾西。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Lennox delivered another record quarter highlighted by double-digit revenue growth, operating margin exceeding 20% and strong free cash flow.

Lennox 的季度營收再創歷史新高，營收成長兩位數，營業利潤率超過 20%，自由現金流強勁。

We also made solid progress on multiple key initiatives as part of our ongoing transformation plan.

作為我們正在進行的轉型計劃的一部分，我們也在多項關鍵措施上取得了紮實進展。

I am grateful for our talented team and the growth mindset of our customers who enabled these exceptionally strong results.

我感謝我們才華洋溢的團隊和客戶的成長心態，是他們實現了這些異常強勁的業績。

Let's turn to slide 3 for the highlights of this quarter.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 3，了解本季的亮點。

Core revenue grew 15%, and our adjusted segment margin expanded 90 basis points to a Q3 record of 20.2%, resulting in adjusted earnings per share increase of 24% to $6.68. We generated an impressive $452 million in operating cash flow this quarter which is $139 million or approximately 44% increase over the same quarter last year.

核心營收成長 15%，調整後的分部利潤率擴大 90 個基點，達到第三季的 20.2%，創歷史新高，調整後每股收益成長 24%，達到 6.68 美元。本季我們的營運現金流達到了令人印象深刻的 4.52 億美元，比去年同期增加了 1.39 億美元，增幅約為 44%。

Our industry-leading ROIC also grew to 47%.

我們在業界領先的投入資本回報率 (ROIC) 也成長至 47%。

Both our segments, HCS and BCS, achieved 15% revenue growth in the quarter and both continued to deliver strong segment profit.

我們的 HCS 和 BCS 兩個部門在本季度都實現了 15% 的收入成長，並且繼續帶來強勁的部門利潤。

Investments in manufacturing capacity and front-end redesign has enabled us to gain share and meet customer demand for our R-410A products.

對製造能力和前端重新設計的投資使我們能夠獲得市場份額並滿足客戶對 R-410A 產品的需求。

In addition, investments in digital processes and distribution technologies led to improved order fill rates within Home Comfort Solutions.

此外，對數位流程和分銷技術的投資提高了 Home Comfort Solutions 的訂單履行率。

The new commercial factory start-up remains on track and the Building Climate Solutions segment successfully integrated the AES acquisition ahead of schedule.

新的商業工廠啟動仍在正常進行，建築氣候解決方案部門提前成功整合了 AES 收購。

These results reflect the dedication of our 14,000 employees and the continued support of our dealers and customers.

這些成果體現了我們 14,000 名員工的奉獻以及經銷商和客戶的持續支持。

Therefore, I am confident in raising our 2024 EPS guidance range to $20.75 to $21.

因此，我有信心將 2024 年 EPS 指導範圍提高至 20.75 美元至 21 美元。

Now please turn to slide 4 for more details on our CLO transition.

現在請翻到投影片 4，以了解更多有關 CLO 過渡的詳細資訊。

As announced earlier this morning, John Torres, Lennox's Chief Legal Officer, has elected to retire.

正如今天早上早些時候宣布的那樣，Lennox 首席法律官約翰·托雷斯 (John Torres) 選擇退休。

I want to take a moment to acknowledge John's outstanding 16 years of leadership and his lasting impact on Lennox.

我想花點時間感謝約翰 16 年的傑出領導能力以及他對倫諾克斯的持久影響。

He led multiple acquisitions and divestitures to streamline our portfolio and ensure that we operate with the highest ethical standards by strengthening our ethics and compliance office.

他領導了多項收購和資產剝離，以簡化我們的投資組合，並透過加強我們的道德與合規辦公室確保我們按照最高道德標準運作。

As a result of our thoughtful succession planning, we are excited for Monica Brown as she takes on the role of Chief Legal Officer effective January 1, 2025.

經過深思熟慮的繼任計劃，我們對莫妮卡·布朗 (Monica Brown) 感到興奮，因為她將於 2025 年 1 月 1 日起擔任首席法律官。

Monica has been with Lennox for 12 years with a proven track record across our businesses and legal functions.

Monica 在 Lennox 工作 12 年，在我們的業務和法律職能方面擁有良好的業績記錄。

Before joining Lennox, she spent nearly 13 years with a leading outside law firm.

在加入 Lennox 之前，她在一家領先的外部律師事務所工作了近 13 年。

Looking ahead, Monica is well positioned to continue John's legacy of success with a focus on advancing our digital capabilities and accelerating future growth.

展望未來，莫妮卡完全有能力繼承約翰的成功傳統，專注於提升我們的數位能力並加速未來的成長。

Now let me hand the call over to Michael to take us through the details of our Q3 financial performance.

現在讓我將電話轉交給邁克爾，讓他向我們詳細介紹第三季的財務表現。

Thank you, Alok.

謝謝你，阿洛克。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Please turn to slide 5.

請翻到投影片 5。

We are pleased to report our seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year adjusted earnings per share growth.

我們很高興地報告我們連續第七個季度調整後每股收益實現兩位數的同比增長。

This quarter, we increased our adjusted segment margin by 90 basis points and achieved a remarkable 15% revenue growth, resulting in 24% adjusted EPS growth.

本季度，我們將調整後的部門利潤率提高了 90 個基點，實現了 15% 的收入顯著增長，調整後的每股收益增長了 24%。

Now I will share more details on our third quarter financial results.

現在我將分享有關我們第三季財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Core revenue was approximately $1.5 billion, up nearly $200 million from last year, attributed mostly to volume gains in both segments.

核心營收約 15 億美元，比去年增加近 2 億美元，主要歸功於這兩個領域的銷售成長。

Adjusted segment profit increased by $52 million or 21%, driven by $86 million in volume as well as price and mix benefits.

調整後的部門利潤增加了 5,200 萬美元，即 21%，這得益於 8,600 萬美元的銷售以及價格和組合效益。

This was partially offset by regulatory transition costs and expenses related to our new commercial factory ramp-up.

這部分被監管過渡成本和與我們新商業工廠擴建相關的費用所抵消。

Ongoing investments also impacted profits as we are committed to strategic initiatives in sales and distribution to support consistent profitable growth.

持續的投資也影響了利潤，因為我們致力於銷售和分銷方面的策略性舉措，以支持持續的獲利成長。

The tax rate was 18.7% and diluted shares outstanding were 35.8 million compared to 35.7 million in the prior year quarter.

稅率為 18.7%，稀釋後流通股數為 3,580 萬股，去年同期為 3,570 萬股。

Let's now turn to slide 6 and review the third quarter financial performance of the Home Comfort Solutions segment.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 6，回顧一下家庭舒適解決方案部門第三季的財務表現。

The Home Comfort Solutions segment had an exceptional quarter, delivering 15% revenue growth, 25% segment profit growth and an impressive 170 basis point expansion in segment profit margin.

家庭舒適解決方案部門的季度表現非常出色，收入成長了 15%，部門利潤成長了 25%，部門利潤率擴大了 170 個基點，令人印象深刻。

Sales volumes increased by 11%, fueled by over 30% growth in our two-step distributor channel, primarily reflecting normal restocking after several quarters of industry-wide destocking.

在我們的兩步驟分銷管道成長超過 30% 的推動下，銷量成長了 11%，這主要反映了全行業去庫存幾個季度後的正常補貨。

Our one-step contractor channel saw modest volume growth, supported availability compared to the broader market.

與更廣泛的市場相比，我們的一站式承包商通路的銷售量略有成長，支援了可用性。

Towards the end of the quarter, we saw early signs of R-410A prebuy demand.

到本季末，我們看到了 R-410A 預購需求的早期跡象。

Pricing execution has been a key focus for the HCS segment over the past year, driving 4% revenue growth in the quarter.

去年，定價執行一直是 HCS 細分市場的重點關注點，推動本季營收成長 4%。

Having successfully met our 2024 price improvement targets, we are now concentrating on pricing for the new R-454B products, and these initiatives are progressing well.

在成功實現 2024 年價格改進目標後，我們現在專注於新 R-454B 產品的定價，而這些舉措進展順利。

Finally, our quarterly profit was impacted by anticipated product cost challenges during our transition to our new R-454B products and for ongoing investments aimed at enhancing our distribution capabilities and improving the overall customer experience.

最後，我們的季度利潤受到我們過渡到新 R-454B 產品期間預期的產品成本挑戰以及旨在增強我們的分銷能力和改善整體客戶體驗的持續投資的影響。

Moving on to slide 7.

繼續看投影片 7。

The Building Climate Solutions segment also delivered an impressive 15% revenue growth in the third quarter, 6% of which can be attributed to inorganic growth from our AES acquisition.

建築氣候解決方案部門在第三季也實現了令人印象深刻的 15% 收入成長，其中 6% 可歸因於我們收購 AES 的無機成長。

We are very pleased with this acquisition, which was completed in the fourth quarter of last year.

我們對此收購感到非常滿意，該收購於去年第四季完成。

The integration was finished ahead of schedule, and we have delivered better-than-expected AES profit margins driven by additional synergies.

整合提前完成，在額外綜效的推動下，我們的 AES 利潤率優於預期。

From an organic growth perspective, sales volume was up 7% in the quarter, but was constrained by manufacturing challenges and new factory ramp-up inefficiencies that limited production output.

從有機成長的角度來看，本季銷量成長了 7%，但受到製造挑戰和新工廠產能效率低下的限制，從而限制了產量。

Segment profit increased by $9 million, though profit margin declined due to anticipated manufacturing ramp-up costs.

儘管由於預期的製造成本上升導致利潤率下降，但該部門利潤增加了 900 萬美元。

Production start-up at our new commercial factory in Saltillo, Mexico, remains on track.

我們位於墨西哥薩爾蒂約的新商業工廠的生產啟動仍在順利進行中。

However, total manufacturing output for commercial HVAC continues to be below demand levels.

然而，商用暖通空調的總製造產量仍低於需求水準。

For emergency replacement, we have started offering products in some pilot markets and early results are encouraging.

對於緊急更換，我們已開始在一些試點市場提供產品，早期結果令人鼓舞。

Please turn to slide 8, where I will review our cash flow performance and capital deployment strategies.

請參閱投影片 8，我將回顧我們的現金流表現和資本部署策略。

Operating cash flow for the quarter totaled $452 million compared to $313 million in the same period last year.

本季營運現金流總計 4.52 億美元，去年同期為 3.13 億美元。

Capital expenditures were $40 million, representing $1 million increase year-over-year.

資本支出為 4000 萬美元，年增 100 萬美元。

Our cash flow performance has been solid this year, reflecting ongoing efforts to drive revenue growth, expand profit margins and optimize working capital.

今年我們的現金流表現穩健，反映出我們不斷努力推動營收成長、擴大利潤率和優化營運資本。

Earlier this year, we implemented working capital initiatives with a focus on accounts payable, which has been a driver of the $183 million increase in year-to-date operating cash flow.

今年早些時候，我們實施了重點關注應付帳款的營運資金計劃，這是年初至今營運現金流增加 1.83 億美元的推動因素。

In the coming years, we will unlock additional working capital by leveraging digital tools and efficient processes.

未來幾年，我們將利用數位工具和高效流程釋放額外的營運資金。

Our return on invested capital, ROIC stands at 47%, an industry-leading figure that remains resilient across business cycles due to high nondiscretionary replacement demand.

我們的投資資本回報率 (ROIC) 為 47%，這是一個行業領先的數字，由於非自由裁量的更換需求很高，該數字在整個商業週期中都保持彈性。

We continue to expand ROIC year-over-year while also making capital investments that are poised to deliver substantial benefits in the coming years.

我們繼續逐年擴大投資報酬率，同時進行資本投資，這些投資預計將在未來幾年帶來巨大的效益。

Finally, we maintain a healthy balance sheet with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 0.8x, down from 1.8x in the prior year.

最後，我們維持健康的資產負債表，淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 0.8 倍，低於前一年的 1.8 倍。

Our free cash flow deployment strategy remains focused on driving annual dividend growth and executing bolt-on acquisitions.

我們的自由現金流部署策略仍專注於推動年度股息成長和執行補強收購。

We have reinitiated buybacks in the third quarter, and we'll continue leveraging share repurchases to efficiently return excess cash to shareholders.

我們在第三季重新啟動了回購，我們將繼續利用股票回購來有效地將多餘的現金回饋給股東。

If you will now turn to slide 9, I will review our revised 2024 financial guidance.

如果您現在翻到投影片 9，我將回顧我們修訂後的 2024 年財務指引。

After the third quarter results and more visibility into the last quarter of the year, we have raised our full year revenue guidance.

在公佈第三季業績以及對今年最後一個季度的了解之後，我們提高了全年收入指引。

The table on the left summarizes our full year revenue growth factors.

左表總結了我們全年營收成長因素。

Total company core revenue is now projected to increase by approximately 10%.

公司核心總收入目前預計將成長約 10%。

We now expect mid-single-digit improvement in sales volumes combined pricing and mix to be up low single digits and our AES acquisition to contribute low single-digit growth.

我們現在預計銷售、定價和產品組合將實現中個位數的成長，而我們對 AES 的收購將帶來低個位數的成長。

As a result of our strong third quarter profit performance, we are raising our full year earnings per share guidance to $20.75 to $21 from the previously guided range of $19.50 to $20.25. We are also raising our free cash flow guidance to $575 million to $650 million.

由於第三季利潤表現強勁，我們將全年每股收益指引從先前的 19.50 美元至 20.25 美元提高至 20.75 美元至 21 美元。我們也將自由現金流指引提高至 5.75 億至 6.5 億美元。

As you can see, most of our other guide points have not changed, except for interest expense, which is now estimated to be approximately $45 million.

正如您所看到的，我們的大多數其他指導要點都沒有改變，除了利息費用，目前估計約為 4500 萬美元。

Overall, year-to-date performance, combined with increased clarity on industry demand, has given us the confidence to significantly raise our earnings per share guidance.

整體而言，今年迄今的業績，加上產業需求的日益明確，使我們有信心大幅提高每股盈餘指引。

With that, please turn to slide 10, and I'll turn it back over to Alok for an overview of the low GWP refrigerant transition.

接下來，請翻到幻燈片 10，我將把它轉回給 Alok，以了解低 GWP 冷媒過渡的概述。

Thanks, Michael.

謝謝，麥可。

All necessary preparations for design, engineering and manufacturing of the low GWP products were completed earlier in the year, ensuring a successful launch in the third quarter.

低全球升溫潛能值產品的設計、工程和製造的所有必要準備工作已於今年稍早完成，確保了第三季的成功推出。

As part of this transition, we are also excited to introduce our new Lennox powered by Samsung mini split and VRF heat pump systems.

作為這項轉變的一部分，我們也很高興推出由三星迷你分離式和 VRF 熱泵系統提供動力的新型 Lennox。

We have invested heavily in developing new low GWP products and minimizing disruptions during the transition.

我們投入大量資金開發新的低全球升溫潛能值產品，並最大限度地減少過渡期間的干擾。

We anticipate continued manufacturing cost headwinds into the first quarter of next year as we continue to convert production lines in our factories.

隨著我們繼續改造工廠的生產線，我們預計明年第一季製造成本將繼續面臨阻力。

Our approach to reconfiguring our factories balances production flexibility with cost efficiency.

我們重新配置工廠的方法平衡了生產彈性和成本效率。

In 2025, we expect a gradual shift in demand for the new low GWP refrigerant products.

到 2025 年，我們預計對新型低 GWP 冷媒產品的需求將逐漸轉變。

The first half of the year, specifically the first quarter, will see continued R-410A sales from manufacturers, distributors and dealers as everyone depletes their regular and pre-bought R-410A inventory.

今年上半年，特別是第一季度，製造商、分銷商和經銷商將繼續銷售 R-410A，因為每個人都會耗盡其常規和預購的 R-410A 庫存。

We still estimate that for the full year, approximately 65% of the end market demand will transition to low GWP product, which will favorably impact mix.

我們仍預計全年約 65% 的終端市場需求將轉向低 GWP 產品，這將對產品組合產生有利影響。

Looking further ahead, we anticipate existing 410A refrigerant will face price increases as supply items and demand moves towards low GWP products.

展望未來，隨著供應項目和需求轉向低 GWP 產品，我們預計現有 410A 冷媒將面臨價格上漲。

This will increase cost pressure on repairs leading to higher demand for system replacements.

這將增加維修成本壓力，從而導致對系統更換的需求更高。

This transition also opens more service opportunities for dealers and contractors given additional safety features and components the new R-454B products.

鑑於新 R-454B 產品具有額外的安全功能和組件，這一轉變也為經銷商和承包商提供了更多服務機會。

We expect some of the low GWP price and mix benefits to extend into 2026 as the market fully transitions to the new low GWP product.

我們預計，隨著市場完全過渡到新的低 ​​GWP 產品，一些低 GWP 價格和混合效益將延續到 2026 年。

With that, please turn to slide 11 for our early thinking on the outlook for 2025.

接下來，請前往投影片 11，了解我們對 2025 年前景的早期思考。

We are pleased with the resilience of the North America HVAC industry growth.

我們對北美暖通空調產業成長的彈性感到滿意。

We remain cautiously optimistic for 2025, given our sustained competitive momentum from our ongoing transformation journey.

鑑於我們持續轉型之旅帶來的持續競爭動力，我們對 2025 年保持謹慎樂觀。

On the left-hand side of the slide, you will see several factors that will likely impact revenue growth in 2025.

在投影片的左側，您將看到幾個可能影響 2025 年收入成長的因素。

Mix benefits from the low GWP transition with 10-plus percent price increases will accelerate growth.

低全球升溫潛勢轉型帶來的綜合效益與 10% 以上的價格上漲將加速成長。

Lennox has historically executed extremely well during these regulatory transitions, gaining share and confidence from our dealers and distributors.

Lennox 歷來在這些監管轉型過程中表現得非常出色，贏得了經銷商和經銷商的份額和信心。

We plan to do the same thing next year.

我們計劃明年做同樣的事情。

We anticipate higher manufacturing output from our commercial HVAC factories within our BCS segment.

我們預計 BCS 部門內的商業暖通空調工廠的製造產量將會更高。

In conjunction with the investment we made in our sales team this year, we will be able to recapture some of the previously lost share in the emergency replacement market.

結合今年我們對銷售團隊的投資，我們將能夠重新奪回先前在緊急更換市場上失去的一些份額。

Moreover, these improvements will instill greater confidence in our ability to serve national accounts with a full life cycle value proposition.

此外，這些改進將為我們以全生命週期價值主張服務國民帳的能力注入更大的信心。

We are encouraged by the growth opportunity from partnering with Samsung for our ductless heat pump offering, strengthening brand recognition and providing access to a broader customer base.

與三星合作開發無管熱泵產品、增強品牌知名度並提供更廣泛的客戶群，使我們獲得了成長機會，這讓我們感到鼓舞。

Increased incentives for energy-efficient system may lead to higher replacement demand as well as higher tier mix.

節能係統的激勵措施的增加可能會導致更高的更換需求以及更高層次的組合。

While we are generally optimistic about 2025 revenue growth, it is important to recognize our outlook can be impacted by several end market factors.

雖然我們對 2025 年收入成長總體持樂觀態度，但重要的是要認識到我們的前景可能會受到多個終端市場因素的影響。

Uncertain consumer confidence continues to pose challenges alongside a trend towards more value-tiered products, which may negatively impact mix.

不確定的消費者信心持續帶來挑戰，同時出現更多價值分層產品的趨勢，這可能會對產品組合產生負面影響。

Higher cost for the new products may also create complexities in the ongoing repair versus replace dynamics.

新產品的更高成本也可能為正在進行的維修與更換動態帶來複雜性。

From an industry perspective, we expect destocking in the first half of 2025 as distributors sell-through R-410A prebuy this year.

從產業角度來看，隨著經銷商今年預購 R-410A 的銷售，我們預計 2025 年上半年將減少庫存。

Additionally, competitors may gain some share as they overcome their current availability challenges.

此外，競爭對手在克服當前的可用性挑戰後可能會獲得一些份額。

On the right-hand side of the slide, we have highlighted key drivers for margin expansion.

在投影片的右側，我們強調了利潤率擴張的關鍵驅動因素。

We anticipate margin improvements from the low GWP product mix with 30% incrementals, supported by our continued focus on price cost discipline.

我們預計，在我們持續關注價格成本紀律的支持下，低 GWP 產品組合的利潤率將提高 30%。

We also foresee improvements in productivity from higher distribution fill rates as our focus on digital inventory planning and our investment in distribution technologies start to generate results.

我們也預計，隨著我們對數位庫存規劃的關注和對分銷技術的投資開始產生成果，更高的分銷填充率將提高生產力。

Greater factory efficiency will also contribute to our margin expansion, particularly in the second half of next year as we begin to lap the ramp-up costs associated with the new commercial factory and low GWP transition.

更高的工廠效率也將有助於我們的利潤率擴張，特別是在明年下半年，因為我們開始消化與新商業工廠和低全球升溫潛能值轉型相關的成本上升。

However, these gains may be partially offset by several factors.

然而，這些收益可能會被幾個因素部分抵消。

Our investments in digital capabilities and distribution network improvements are essential for enhancing operational efficiency and improving customer experience.

我們對數位能力和分銷網絡改進的投資對於提高營運效率和改善客戶體驗至關重要。

While these investments are crucial for long-term growth, they may create some near-term pressure on margins.

雖然這些投資對於長期成長至關重要，但它們可能會對利潤率造成一些短期壓力。

Additionally, we anticipate inflationary pressures for both commodities and component costs.

此外，我們預期大宗商品和零件成本都會面臨通膨壓力。

We also expect increases in health care and employee benefit costs.

我們也預期醫療保健和員工福利成本會增加。

Ultimately, our focus in 2025 remains on superior execution to drive differentiated growth and expand margins.

最終，我們 2025 年的重點仍然是卓越的執行力，以推動差異化成長並擴大利潤。

We will provide further financial guidance when we report our Q4 earnings early next year.

當我們明年初報告第四季收益時，我們將提供進一步的財務指導。

Now please turn to slide 12.

現在請翻到投影片 12。

As we wrap up today's call, I will emphasize our confidence in driving sustainable growth guided by 5 key elements of our strategic transformation plan.

在我們結束今天的電話會議時，我將強調我們有信心在策略轉型計劃的 5 個關鍵要素的指導下推動永續成長。

Our first focus is on accelerating growth by adding new customers as well as capturing a greater share of wallet from existing customers.

我們的首要重點是透過增加新客戶以及從現有客戶那裡獲得更大的錢包份額來加速成長。

Second, we will expand our margins from price/cost productivity and leveraging the strength of our direct-to-dealer network.

其次，我們將透過價格/成本生產力和利用我們直接面向經銷商網路的優勢來擴大利潤。

Third, the Lennox unified management system remains key to our success helping us streamline operations, share best practices and execute our strategy.

第三，Lennox 統一管理系統仍然是我們成功的關鍵，幫助我們簡化營運、分享最佳實踐和執行我們的策略。

Next, our ongoing investments in digital and heat pump technology keep us at the forefront of innovation to deliver cutting-edge solutions for our customers.

接下來，我們對數位和熱泵技術的持續投資使我們處於創新的前沿，為客戶提供尖端的解決方案。

And finally, our strong culture rooted in core values and reinforced by our pay-for-performance model drives our success.

最後，我們根植於核心價值並透過績效付費模式強化的強大文化推動了我們的成功。

Our differentiated strategy continues to create sustained competitive advantages and will enable us to achieve our long-term goals.

我們的差異化策略將繼續創造持續的競爭優勢，並使我們能夠實現我們的長期目標。

I'm incredibly proud of what we have accomplished so far, and I have no doubt that our best days are still ahead of us.

我對我們迄今為止所取得的成就感到無比自豪，並且毫不懷疑我們最好的日子還在前面。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We will be happy to take your questions now.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

Margo, let's go to Q&A.

瑪戈，讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

Hello, Tommy.

你好，湯米。

Alok, I want to start on the A2L commentary that you've provided.

好吧，我想從您提供的 A2L 評論開始。

I hear you talk about the 10-plus percent pricing tailwind versus the 410A product and then also about some early success with initiatives in recent weeks or months, I guess.

我聽說您談論了與 410A 產品相比 10% 以上的定價順風，然後我猜還談論了最近幾週或幾個月的舉措的一些早期成功。

So if we pull all this together, am I correct in saying that, number one, the magnitude of the pricing/mix tailwind is unchanged versus prior expectations?

因此，如果我們將所有這些綜合起來，我說的第一點是否正確，即定價/組合順風的幅度與之前的預期相比沒有變化？

And then number two, that your conviction in successfully realizing that is higher now that you've introduced some product into the market, albeit at low volumes?

第二，既然您已經向市場推出了一些產品，儘管數量很少，您成功實現這一目標的信念是否更加堅定？

I would say both are true, Tommy.

我想說兩者都是真的，湯米。

The third thing I would add to is the competitive share gain that we get normally during any regulatory transition, the confidence in achieving that in this transition is also higher.

我要補充的第三件事是我們在任何監管過渡期間通常都會獲得的競爭性份額收益，在這種過渡中實現這一目標的信心也更高。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Looking at the 2025 early thinking slide you provided, Alok, I wanted to unpack what you're referencing here in terms of the trend for the value tier and then the repair versus replace.

Alok，看看您提供的 2025 年早期思考幻燈片，我想根據價值層的趨勢以及維修與更換的趨勢來解讀您在此處引用的內容。

What have you seen to date on those points?

迄今為止，您在這些方面看到了什麼？

And then what do you want to make sure to communicate about how that might evolve into next year?

那麼你想確保就明年的發展如何溝通呢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

What we have seen so far is not a meaningful shift between repair and replace, and -- but we continue to be cautious about it, especially given that the price of new equipment will rise.

到目前為止，我們所看到的並不是維修和更換之間的有意義的轉變，而且——但我們仍然對此持謹慎態度，特別是考慮到新設備的價格將會上漲。

So we continue to monitor that, and that's why I want to call it out.

所以我們會繼續監控這種情況，這就是為什麼我想指出這一點。

On the value tier shift, as we went from sort of 13 SEER to 14 SEER and as we look at the overall state of the economy, we have seen a shift towards more people buying the minimum SEER.

關於價值等級的轉變，當我們從 13 SEER 變成 14 SEER 時，當我們審視經濟的整體狀況時，我們發現越來越多的人購買最低 SEER。

It already used to be 60%, 65% of the industry.

以前已經是行業的60%、65%了。

So now it might be 65% to 70% of the industry.

所以現在可能佔產業的 65% 到 70%。

So that's what we are calling out on the value tier.

這就是我們在價值層面所呼籲的。

No surprises, no changes from any of our previous conversation.

沒有什麼意外，我們之前的談話沒有任何變化。

Just wanted to lay out the positives and the potential watchout for 2025, but really no change in Q3 that we are calling out.

只是想列出 2025 年的積極因素和潛在的關注點，但我們所說的第三季度實際上沒有任何變化。

Noted.

著名的。

Thank you, Alok.

謝謝你，阿洛克。

I'll turn it back.

我會把它轉回來。

Thanks, Tommy.

謝謝，湯米。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞恩·梅克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

Hey, everyone.

嘿，大家。

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

My first one is just on the 65% next year that will be A2L.

我的第一個目標是明年 A2L 的 65%。

Can you just talk about some of the assumptions you're making there?

您能談談您在那裡所做的一些假設嗎？

And then would you say the risk is to the upside there or to the downside?

那麼您認為風險是向上還是向下？

I know that's kind of a hard question.

我知道這是一個很難回答的問題。

It is a hard question.

這是一個很難回答的問題。

But Ryan, we are here to answer your hard questions.

但是瑞安，我們來這裡是為了回答你的難題。

Listen, I think the risk right now is fairly balanced around the number 65%.

聽著，我認為目前的風險在 65% 左右相當平衡。

If you remember earlier in the year, we were talking about 50% to 65%, but right now, we feel more confident around the 65% number.

如果你還記得今年早些時候，我們談論的是 50% 到 65%，但現在，我們對 65% 的數字更有信心。

I think if it's a little lower, it could be because there's more prebuy in 410A, which we will see in Q4.

我認為如果稍微低一些，可能是因為 410A 的預購量更多，我們將在第四季度看到這一點。

And if it's higher, it will be because a lot of the competitors already out of 410A inventory right now.

如果它更高，那是因為許多競爭對手現在已經沒有 410A 庫存了。

So as we're selling 410A, it could be used this quarter versus being left over for next year.

因此，當我們出售 410A 時，它可以在本季度使用，而不是留到明年。

So those are kind of the 2 dynamics on the 410A that we are selling today, does that land up becoming prebuy, which I think is because of some chances or it's just because competitors are short on that product.

這些就是我們今天銷售的 410A 的 2 個動力，它是否會成為預購，我認為這是因為一些機會，或者只是因為競爭對手缺乏該產品。

So those will be the pluses and minuses on that, Ryan.

所以這些將是它的優點和缺點，瑞安。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And then just on the prebuy, clearly, that helped the quarter.

顯然，預購對本季有所幫助。

As we think about the first half of '25, can you quantify the magnitude just so we can set our models correctly?

當我們思考 25 年上半年時，您能否量化其幅度，以便我們可以正確設定模型？

Sure.

當然。

So on the prebuy, I'm not sure how much it helped Q3.

所以在預購方面，我不確定它對第三季有多大幫助。

I mean if you think about Q3, what helped us was 3 different factors.

我的意思是，如果你考慮第三季度，對我們有幫助的是 3 個不同的因素。

First of all, the end of destocking and beginning of restocking, I mean, that was probably the largest contributor.

首先，去庫存的結束和補貨的開始，我的意思是，這可能是最大的貢獻者。

As you saw our 2-step business was up over 30% or around 30%.

正如您所看到的，我們的 2-step 業務成長了 30% 以上或 30% 左右。

So I think that's the biggest factor for what helped in Q3.

所以我認為這是對第三季有幫助的最大因素。

Second, I would call out is just share gains.

其次，我想說的是股票報酬。

I mean we've been gaining share just because of better execution and there was some impact of competitors running out of inventory.

我的意思是，我們之所以獲得份額只是因為更好的執行力，而且競爭對手的庫存耗​​盡也產生了一些影響。

I think share gains were the second factor.

我認為股票收益是第二個因素。

Third, which may have happened a little bit towards the tail end of the quarter is prebuy.

第三，預購可能在本季末發生。

But remember, most of our business goes to dealers and unless they go start renting out big bonds, I mean, they're not going to be able to do a lot of prebuy and distributor inventory levels are still pretty close to normal.

但請記住，我們的大部分業務都流向經銷商，除非他們開始出租大量債券，我的意思是，他們將無法進行大量預購，而且經銷商庫存水平仍然非常接近正常水平。

So I just want to emphasize the point on the prebuy on how we expect.

所以我只想強調一下我們對預購的期望。

What we would expect, as I said, is in Q1 next year, there clearly will be some depletion or destocking of prebuy, maybe some carryover in Q2, but that gives us confidence in the 65% number saying majority of the sales next year will be 454B.

正如我所說，我們預計明年第一季度，預購顯然會出現一些消耗或去庫存，也許第二季度會有一些結轉，但這讓我們對65% 的數字充滿信心，表明明年的大部分銷售額將是454B。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

喬奧迪，富國銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

I wanted to start on the market share comments that you've made.

我想從您對市場份額的評論開始。

I mean I think that going back to 2018 time period in tornado in a period of time of maybe 2 or 3 years of some share headwinds, it seems like over the past couple of years, those have reversed and you've been on a share gain trajectory.

我的意思是，我認為回到 2018 年龍捲風時期，在大約 2 到 3 年的時間裡，股票面臨一些逆風，似乎在過去幾年裡，這些情況已經逆轉，你一直在股票上獲得軌跡。

But can you just level-set in terms of through these periods of time, how much you may have given up, how much you've recaptured?

但你能否根據這些時間段來設定水平，你可能放棄了多少，又重新獲得了多少？

Net-net, where do you stand today and how you're thinking about the share gain opportunities moving forward?

Net-net，您今天的立場如何？

Sure.

當然。

I'll start by reaffirming what you said is that, yes, we have reversed those share losses, and we are back on a positive trajectory.

首先我要重申你所說的是，是的，我們已經扭轉了這些份額損失，並且我們回到了積極的軌道上。

Because we do both one-step and 2-step, share is a little difficult as we look at AHRI or any of those data.

因為我們同時進行一步和兩步，所以當我們查看 AHRI 或任何這些數據時，共享有點困難。

But today, where we stand because of all the moving pieces, we are confident that we have gained share, and we continue to gain share.

但今天，由於所有的變化，我們有信心我們已經獲得了份額，並且我們將繼續獲得份額。

What we have to do next year is make sure that we can retain most of the captured share because as competitors have inventory, which many of them don't right now on 410A product, then there would be like a lot of our effort going towards making sure our share gains are more permanent.

我們明年要做的就是確保我們能夠保留大部分已獲得的份額，因為競爭對手有庫存，而他們中的許多人現在在 410A 產品上沒有庫存，那麼我們將付出很多努力確保我們的份額收益更加持久。

On the commercial side, where also the share gain comment comes up, we have not been able to recover the share so far.

在商業方面，也出現了份額增益評論，但到目前為止我們還無法收回份額。

That's part of our plan for 2025 on getting share back on the emergency replacement because we are still constrained by manufacturing capacity, not demand in that segment.

這是我們 2025 年收回緊急更換份額的計劃的一部分，因為我們仍然受到製造能力的限制，而不是該領域的需求。

So I want to separate the shared comments into commercial and residential.

所以我想把共享的評論分為商業和住宅。

Got it.

知道了。

And then I just wanted to circle back on the 454B pricing commentary, and you've noted that the initiatives are progressing well.

然後我只想回顧一下 454B 定價評論，您已經注意到這些舉措進展順利。

Any color that you can provide on what that means in terms of -- or with respect to the 10%-plus price?

您可以提供任何顏色來說明這對於 10% 以上的價格意味著什麼嗎？

And I think there's still debate out there on how to think about that price and list versus realized.

我認為關於如何考慮價格和清單與實現的問題仍然存在爭論。

So any clarification there when you talk about 10% price and if that's a realized number.

因此，當您談論 10% 的價格以及這是否是一個已實現的數字時，請澄清一下。

I think as we finish Q4, when we have greater clarity on market movements and acceptance, we can talk about that in early Q1.

我認為，當我們完成第四季時，當我們對市場走勢和接受度有了更清晰的了解時，我們可以在第一季初討論這一點。

Right now, the 10% is what we are looking to gain out of a price.

目前，10% 是我們希望從價格中獲得的收益。

But realize you'll apply to only 65% of sales and only the products that are 454B and we will also be raising price on 410A next year.

但請注意，您將僅適用於 65% 的銷售額，並且僅適用於 454B 的產品，明年我們還將提高 410A 的價格。

So the 10% has to be taken in conjunction with 410A pricing today.

所以這10%必須結合今天的410A定價來考慮。

So there are a lot of moving pieces, and we can provide greater clarity, but overall, where we are seeing in the marketplace is the higher cost product that we're introducing 454B is being supported by our and competitive moves on 10-plus percent price increase into 2025.

因此，有很多變動的部分，我們可以提供更清晰的信息，但總體而言，我們在市場上看到的是我們推出的454B 成本較高的產品，並得到了我們和競爭性變動10% 以上的支持到2025年價格上漲。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc.

傑夫·哈蒙德，KeyBanc。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

I appreciate all the color on that '25 moving pieces.

我欣賞 '25 移動作品上的所有顏色。

If we just kind of looked at the market today, what do you think that res unit and commercial unit kind of market growth looks like as you snap a line into '25?

如果我們只是看看今天的市場，當你把一條線插入「25」時，你認為資源單位和商業單位的市場成長是什麼樣的？

I know there's a number of moving pieces, some noise with the prebuy, but just kind of underlying unit demand in each of the businesses.

我知道有很多變化，預購帶來了一些噪音，但每項業務都有潛在的單位需求。

If you think about res, and we talked about this earlier in the year that we expected for a dealer the volume to be flat to down, then halfway through the year, we upgraded to be flat.

如果你考慮一下資源，我們在今年早些時候討論過這一點，我們預計經銷商的交易量將持平或下降，然後在今年中期，我們將其升級為持平。

And now we're going to say flat to maybe slightly up is where we are on the res side.

現在我們要說的是持平到可能略有上升是我們在資源方面的情況。

And I'm talking about installed units, away from stocking, destocking, but think of flat as a conservative, flat to slightly up as maybe a little bit more like aggressive numbers to look at.

我談論的是已安裝的單位，遠離庫存、去庫存，但將持平視為保守，持平至略有上升可能更像是激進的數字。

But it's hard to come to that in a firm number, as you know, with the different moving pieces.

但如你所知，由於不同的活動因素，很難得出確定的數字。

Yes.

是的。

I think what we need to do see this Q4 prebuy play out and see kind of how that impacts the end market demand as well as share gain initiatives that we've talked about, normally, we've executed better than others during this transition.

我認為我們需要做的是看到第四季度的預購發揮作用，看看這對終端市場需求以及我們討論過的份額增益計劃有何影響，通常，我們在這一過渡期間比其他人執行得更好。

So those are 2 unknowns that we need to see how they play out over the next quarter.

因此，這是兩個未知數，我們需要看看它們在下個季度的表現如何。

So we'll wait for AHRI but I think flat to slightly up would be a good way to look at end market on residential.

因此，我們將等待 AHRI，但我認為持平或略有上升將是觀察住宅終端市場的好方法。

On commercial, since we remain supply constrained, we just go with the industry figures, where I think the market has been growing slightly.

在商業方面，由於我們的供應仍然有限，我們只關注行業數據，我認為市場一直在小幅成長。

It's still not fully recovered from the COVID decline that had happened.

它還沒有完全從新冠疫情造成的衰退中恢復過來。

Because our markets -- remember that we don't have offices, we don't have as much multistory housing, what we call commercial as typically retail, single-story buildings.

因為我們的市場——請記住，我們沒有辦公室，我們沒有像典型的零售單層建築那樣多的多層住房，也就是我們所說的商業建築。

So from that perspective, we do see that market continuing to do grow low single digits at the end market.

因此，從這個角度來看，我們確實看到終端市場的市場繼續以低個位數成長。

And resi, I'm more optimistic about lower interest rates, better market performance going into next year.

至於resi，我對明年的較低利率和更好的市場表現更加樂觀。

Okay.

好的。

And then just in commercial maybe level -- remind us your mix in education, and there's been a lot of funding -- ESSER funding around K-12, and I know that's been a hot market.

然後只是在商業層面——提醒我們你們在教育方面的組合，並且有很多資金——ESSER 圍繞 K-12 提供資金，我知道這是一個熱門市場。

If you're seeing any signs that as that sunsets that market might see a move back?

您是否看到任何跡象表明隨著日落市場可能會回調？

We are not seeing any signs of that market going back.

我們沒有看到該市場有任何回升的跡象。

Our exposure in education is probably less than some of our competitors, given like historically, we have been so focused on retail.

我們在教育方面的投入可能少於我們的一些競爭對手，因為像歷史上一樣，我們一直如此專注於零售業。

But we look at that as a good growth opportunity.

但我們認為這是一個很好的成長機會。

But currently, we don't see any of that slowing down as we see also schools issuing bonds and other pieces because these are very necessary maintenance and many of these units remain way past their useful life.

但目前，我們沒有看到這種情況有任何放緩，因為我們也看到學校發行債券和其他物品，因為這些是非常必要的維護，而且其中許多單位仍然超過了其使用壽命。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑夫·斯普拉格，垂直研究。

Hey.

嘿。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Alok, I just want to come back to kind of the share gain dynamics, and we've got to hop over and see what else Watsco is saying this morning.

好吧，我只想回到份額增益動態，我們必須跳過去看看沃特斯科今天早上還說了什麼。

But you're kind of putting the share gain largely being a function of some competitors running out of 410A, where they sound like maybe there's actually some bigger problem with somebody.

但你認為份額增益很大程度上是一些競爭對手耗盡 410A 的函數，他們聽起來可能實際上有人有更大的問題。

I'm not expecting you to kind of name names on competitors, but are you actually seeing somebody also struggle with the transition?

我不希望你點名競爭對手，但你是否真的看到有人也在為轉型而苦苦掙扎？

Are there some other kind of systematic problem with someone in the channel other than just kind of running out of 410A?

除了 410A 耗盡之外，通路中是否還有其他系統問題？

Obviously, we don't know what's happening inside the hold with any of those competitors.

顯然，我們不知道這些競爭對手的貨艙內發生了什麼事。

What we know is our availability right now on 410A products is better than many of the other players, and that's giving us an advantage.

我們知道，我們目前 410A 產品的可用性比許多其他廠商都要好，這給了我們一個優勢。

We also know that a lot of the investments we made last year in improving our sales team, being a better distributor, making sure we have higher fill rates and ensuring that we have a decentralized model that gets more aggressive and focused on our typical AOR dealer, all that's paying off as well.

我們也知道，去年我們進行了大量投資，以改善我們的銷售團隊，成為更好的經銷商，確保我們擁有更高的填充率，並確保我們擁有更積極進取並專注於我們典型的AOR 經銷商的分散模式，這一切也得到了回報。

So I don't want to break out the share gains into 2 comments, right?

所以我不想將份額收益分成 2 則評論，對吧？

One is totally consistent with everything we have been trying to do.

其中之一與我們一直在努力的一切完全一致。

And second, maybe some current advantage because of competitive stumbles.

其次，也許由於競爭的失誤而帶來一些當前的優勢。

It's part of the transition.

這是過渡的一部分。

We made a bet that throughout this year, 410A demand would be higher and the shift to 454B would only happen next year.

我們打賭，今年全年 410A 的需求將會更高，而向 454B 的轉變只會在明年發生。

I believe some of the competitors may have made a different bet and they may have run out of products.

我相信一些競爭對手可能做出了不同的賭注，他們可能已經沒有產品了。

And then thinking about the after-effects of whatever prebuy we have into next year, right?

然後想想明年我們預購的任何後果，對吧？

I mean the 35% of the market that's not 454B, almost by definition, right, has to be sitting in distribution by the end of the year, right, if manufacturers are running low on it now.

我的意思是，35% 的市場非 454B，幾乎按照定義，必須在年底之前進行分銷，對吧，如果製造商現在的庫存不足的話。

So maybe that -- I mean, that feels like really a potentially bigger air pocket early in the year than, I don't know, maybe people think -- maybe just kind of comment on that, like the how you see the state of distribution at the end of the year and how this kind of give back on the prebuy might play out?

所以也許——我的意思是，感覺今年年初確實存在一個潛在更大的氣穴，我不知道，也許人們認為——也許只是對此發表評論，就像你如何看待當前的狀態一樣。分配以及這種預購回饋可能會如何發揮作用？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

First of all, we will get greater clarity next year because Q4 is still just starting, and we got to work through that.

首先，明年我們會更加清楚，因為第四季才剛開始，我們必須解決這個問題。

Our 35% number was based on that even manufacturers will have some 410A inventory, like we will have 410A inventory at the end of the year that we will be selling.

我們的 35% 這個數字是基於即使製造商也會有一些 410A 庫存，就像我們將在年底銷售的 410A 庫存一樣。

So as we look at our own distribution, and I think other manufacturers will likely also have 410A inventory at the end of the year.

因此，當我們看看我們自己的分銷情況時，我認為其他製造商在年底也可能會有 410A 庫存。

So it's not just inventory at distributors, it's inventory in manufacturers and distributors.

因此，這不僅僅是經銷商的庫存，還有製造商和經銷商的庫存。

Q1 is where we will see the most impact.

第一季我們將看到影響最大的地方。

I think the effect starts waning away in Q2, and that's why the 65-35.

我認為這種效應在第二季開始減弱，這就是 65-35 的原因。

But Jeff, I wish there was an exact science behind this or if we had full visibility and complete transparency.

但是傑夫，我希望這背後有精確的科學，或者我們是否具有完全的可見度和完全的透明度。

So this is just like us looking at what we know and coming up with an educated guess.

所以這就像我們查看我們所知道的並提出有根據的猜測。

We are going to be wrong.

我們會錯的。

We just don't know whether it's going to be wrong on the upside or the downside.

我們只是不知道它會在上行還是下行中出現錯誤。

Understood.

明白了。

No.

不。

Thanks for the color.

謝謝你的顏色。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

史蒂芬‧福克曼，傑弗里斯。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Actually, I'm just going to build right off of that, Alok.

事實上，我只是要以此為基礎進行構建，Alok。

Wouldn't you rather be wrong by having more R-410A so that you are price competitive further into 2025?

您是否寧願錯誤地擁有更多 R-410A，以便在 2025 年進一步保持價格競爭力？

For the whole industry, which is what we care about deeply as well, I would hope that everybody runs out of 410A by the end of the year.

對於整個產業來說，這也是我們非常在意的，我希望年底前大家都用完410A。

So we get a better mix and the transition is more seamless for our dealers.

因此，我們獲得了更好的組合，對於我們的經銷商來說，過渡更加無縫。

For a dealer dealing with 2 different product lines and training their crews and all that, it's just very difficult.

對於處理兩條不同產品線並培訓員工等的經銷商來說，這是非常困難的。

So we want to support our dealers, and I hope the entire industry runs out, which is quite likely, given that some competitor is already running out of 410A.

因此，我們希望支持我們的經銷商，我希望整個行業都用完 410A，這很有可能，因為某些競爭對手已經用完了 410A。

But from our perspective, yes, we would like our manufacturing transition to be clean and for us to move to 454B.

但從我們的角度來看，是的，我們希望我們的製造轉型能夠乾淨利落地轉向 454B。

At the same time, we don't want to be price disadvantage in the first quarter, when others may have 410A.

同時，我們不想在第一季處於價格劣勢，因為其他人可能有410A。

So that's a daily balance we've got to drive, Steve.

所以這是我們必須實現的日常平衡，史蒂夫。

Okay.

好的。

And maybe just switching to commercial.

也許只是轉向商業。

Any words of wisdom as we think about how the new facility kind of ramps up through 2025, and we sort of try to model that and when the start-up costs kind of go away?

當我們思考新設施如何在 2025 年之前實現成長，並且我們嘗試對其進行建模以及啟動成本何時消失時，您有什麼智慧之言嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The start-up costs will go away definitely by Q2.

到第二季度，啟動成本肯定會消失。

A large part will go away in Q1.

很大一部分將在第一季消失。

Right now, where we are is we are on track from the time line perspective, I would say the start-up inefficiency maybe a share higher than what we thought originally just because we are putting extra focus on quality and sometimes we are paying more for freight to move products back and forth, and we want to make sure it's a really good quality product, and we take care of our customers through the transition.

現在，從時間軸的角度來看，我們正走在正軌上，我想說，啟動效率低下的比例可能比我們最初想像的要高，只是因為我們更加關注質量，有時我們為產品付出了更多。

So I would say you should expect by mid-next year us to be kind of running up to as we thought the capacity of the factory would be.

所以我想說，你應該預期到明年年中，我們的工廠產能將達到我們預期的水平。

So think of another 3 quarters worth of ramp-up associated with inefficiencies fading away in Q1.

因此，考慮一下與第一季低效率消失相關的另外三個季度的成長。

Michael?

麥可？

Yes, I'll just add that a lot of these costs we're experiencing right now, we believe, are temporary.

是的，我只想補充一點，我們相信，我們現在所經歷的許多成本都是暫時的。

Obviously, we're trying to launch in factories.

顯然，我們正在嘗試在工廠推出。

So in the second half of next year, when that factory is fully operational, these temporary transition costs should abate.

因此，明年下半年，當該工廠全面投入營運時，這些臨時過渡成本應該會減少。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just finally on that, you mentioned earlier that demand is outstripping supply on commercial.

最後，您之前提到商業廣告的需求超過了供應。

When this thing is up midyear to normal run rates, is that then in better balance?

當這個事情在年中恢復到正常運作率時，是否達到了更好的平衡？

We know we'll be in better balance.

我們知道我們會處於更好的平衡狀態。

We may still be below capacity because remember, we're only getting 20% of the potential capacity in Saltillo up and running.

我們可能仍低於產能，因為請記住，我們只啟動並運行了薩爾蒂約潛在產能的 20%。

And if demand continues to outstrip supply, we will put up another 20%.

如果需求持續超過供應，我們將另外提供 20%。

I mean the factory is large enough for us to be able to double our current capacity, but we are doing at 20% at a time.

我的意思是，工廠足夠大，我們能夠將目前的產能翻倍，但我們一次的產能是 20%。

But yes, we'll definitely better balance and better be able to serve our customers.

但是，是的，我們肯定會更好地平衡並能夠更好地為我們的客戶服務。

I mean currently, our customer satisfaction and that is very low because we just can't meet the amount of demand and orders we have.

我的意思是，目前我們的客戶滿意度非常低，因為我們無法滿足我們的需求和訂單量。

Helpful.

有幫助。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們，夥計們。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

So Alok, I know that you clearly -- you don't have the crystal ball here, but just to square those comments on your own inventory levels exiting the year, is the way we should think about it that you expect to carry inventory levels of 410A products to at least meet demand for the first quarter and that's really kind of like the balance that you're trying to make sure you get right?

所以阿洛克，我知道你很清楚 - 你在這裡沒有水晶球，但只是將這些評論與你自己今年退出的庫存水平相結合，這就是我們應該考慮你期望保持庫存水平的方式410A 產品至少滿足第一季度的需求，這真的有點像您試圖確保正確的平衡？

Approximately.

大約。

The reason I say like, I mean, remember, we are also a distributor and 70% of our sales act just like a distributor sales.

我之所以這麼說，我的意思是，請記住，我們也是經銷商，我們 70% 的銷售額就像經銷商的銷售額一樣。

And if we turn inventory 5 times a year, which I know we do around that much, I will have 410A inventory just from phase-in, phase-out perspective that we will sell-through in Q1.

如果我們每年將庫存週轉 5 次（我知道我們這樣做的次數差不多），那麼從逐步引入、逐步淘汰的角度來看，我將擁有 410A 庫存，我們將在第一季售完。

So I think some of it just practical constraints of transition and there is, of course, we do want to remain competitive.

因此，我認為其中一些只是過渡的實際限制，當然，我們確實希望保持競爭力。

So while it's not a goal, I think that's just largely how it will play out because we will continue manufacturing over the time we can.

因此，雖然這不是一個目標，但我認為這在很大程度上就是它的實現方式，因為我們將在可能的情況下繼續製造。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And then just maybe just sticking on pricing for 410A, given that the products are going to be discontinued going into next year, does that change the pricing dynamics that you're able to put through in the early part of next year as you typically put your annual price increases through?

然後，考慮到這些產品將在明年停產，也許只是堅持 410A 的定價，這是否會改變您在明年初能夠實現的定價動態，正如您通常所說的那樣你們每年的漲價經過？

Or how should we kind of think about that 410A pricing even for the portion of the year that it held in to the network in early 2025?

或者我們應該如何考慮 410A 的定價，即使是在 2025 年初保留在網路中的那段時間？

First of all, we want to take care of our customers and be fair.

首先，我們要照顧我們的客戶並做到公平。

But second, from a demand and supply perspective, 410A is short in supply, which is what we're experiencing right now, I mean we fully expect to capture the incremental pricing in 2025 for any 410A products sold in 2025.

但其次，從需求和供應的角度來看，410A 供應短缺，這就是我們現在正在經歷的情況，我的意思是，我們完全期望能夠捕獲 2025 年銷售的任何 410A 產品在 2025 年的增量定價。

And we do annual price increases.

我們每年都會漲價。

I mean cost of benefits are going up, cost of a lot of the commodities continue to be around inflation in wages.

我的意思是福利成本正在上升，許多商品的成本繼​​續圍繞著薪資通膨。

So yes, we fully expect to have 410A sold in 2025 to be at a higher price than 410A sold in 2024.

所以，是的，我們完全預期 2025 年銷售的 410A 的價格將高於 2024 年銷售的 410A。

Okay.

好的。

Great to hear.

很高興聽到。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Alok, maybe first off, there are some sort of interesting bits and pieces on the margins, I suppose, on slide 11.

好吧，也許首先，我想第 11 張幻燈片的頁邊空白處有一些有趣的片段。

Maybe trying to wrap it together.

也許試圖把它包裹在一起。

So I think your margin -- your operating margin this year is guided up about 1 point for the year as a whole, just total Lennox.

因此，我認為您的利潤率——今年全年的營業利潤率預計將上升約 1 個百分點，即倫諾克斯總數。

So it's sort of 30-ish percent incremental margin.

所以這是 30% 左右的增量利潤。

When we look at the bits and pieces on slide 11, is the main takeaway that it's a similar incremental next year or is there something I'm missing on some of the moving parts on slide 11?

當我們查看幻燈片 11 上的點點滴滴時，主要的收穫是明年會有類似的增量，還是我在幻燈片 11 上的一些活動部件上遺漏了一些東西？

I think overall, we expect our margins to expand [over] next year, predominantly led by the mix benefits that we'll see.

我認為總體而言，我們預計明年我們的利潤率將擴大，這主要是由我們將看到的混合效益所帶動的。

And offsetting some of that will be some of the investments we're making.

我們正在進行的一些投資將抵消其中的一些影響。

We're going to have at least a 30% incremental on the mix and then we'll get some more volume tailwinds on share, which is also 30% incremental.

我們將在混合上增加至少 30%，然後我們將在份額上獲得更多的銷量順風，這也是 30% 的增量。

We'll have to go through all the puts and takes and some of the investments we're making, but 25% to 30% incremental sound in the range, but we've got to go through all the details still.

我們必須仔細檢查所有的看跌期權和看跌期權以及我們正在進行的一些投資，但在這個範圍內有 25% 到 30% 的增量是合理的，但我們仍然必須檢查所有細節。

Yes.

是的。

And Julian, remember, our long-term targets for Lennox margins that we have published -- I mean, we are still not there.

朱利安，請記住，我們已經公佈了倫諾克斯利潤率的長期目標——我的意思是，我們還沒有實現這一目標。

So we obviously want to keep making progress towards that over the next 1 year, 1.5 years to get there.

因此，我們顯然希望在未來 1 年、1.5 年的時間內繼續取得進展，以實現這一目標。

So I don't want to get -- give you exact number because Q4 still has to play out depending on how that goes, but we do expect margin expansion next year, for sure.

所以我不想給你確切的數字，因為第四季的表現仍取決於情況如何，但我們確實預計明年的利潤率會擴大，這是肯定的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just my follow-up, revisiting sadly the prebuy stuff again.

然後就是我的後續行動，悲傷地再次回顧預購的東西。

So I guess, it sounds like if we're trying to quantify it, we should not be too concerned if that's right for a couple of reasons about the extent of the destock.

所以我想，聽起來如果我們試圖量化它，我們不應該太擔心這是否正確，因為有幾個關於去庫存程度的原因。

I think one is, if I look at your residential volume guide for this year, it's gone up about 3 points, I think, for the year versus what you said in July, but a lot of that is share gain.

我認為，如果我看一下你們今年的住宅成交量指南，我認為今年與你們 7 月份所說的相比，上漲了約 3 個百分點，但其中很大一部分是份額收益。

So you've got maybe, I don't know, a point of effect from pre-buy this year.

所以我不知道，今年的預購可能會產生一定的影響。

And then also if the effect is mostly in Q1 of next year.

然後，效果是否主要發生在明年第一季。

Q1 is typically a very small seasonal quarter anyway for you and particularly so for cooling product, which presumably is what the refrigerant change affects rather than hot product.

無論如何，第一季對您來說通常是一個非常小的季節性季度，尤其是對於冷卻產品而言，這可能是冷媒變化影響的因素，而不是熱產品的影響。

So maybe just clarify for me if I'm misunderstanding anything with those points, please?

如果我對這些觀點有任何誤解，請幫我澄清一下，好嗎？

First of all, you're not misunderstanding, Julian.

首先，你沒有誤會，朱利安。

This is the -- your classic quote, if I can quote back to you, like analyzing storm in a teacup, right?

這是您的經典名言，如果我可以引用給您的話，就像分析茶杯中的風暴一樣，對吧？

I mean our industry is overanalyzed sometimes.

我的意思是我們的行業有時會被過度分析。

Like the companies that execute well, have a strong strategy do better, but yes, your math is about correct.

就像執行良好的公司一樣，擁有強大策略的公司做得更好，但是，是的，你的數學是正確的。

I mean we -- 70% of our shares are kind of immune to the whole prebuy discussion, and that's going to work as planned.

我的意思是，我們 70% 的股份不受整個預購討論的影響，這將按計劃進行。

The other 30%, we believe majority of the effect right now is stocking, destocking, not prebuy.

另外30%，我們認為目前大部分影響是備貨、去庫存，而不是預購。

Having said all of that, Q4 is still out there.

話雖如此，第四季仍然存在。

I mean Q4 has a very heavy queue quarter, and a lot of that's driven by prebuy and all our answers could change, and we will have to talk about that in Q1.

我的意思是，第四季度的排隊人數非常多，其中許多是由預購驅動的，我們所有的答案都可能會改變，我們將不得不在第一季討論這一點。

But I mean, so far, we are assuming there will be some prebuy but not a heavy prebuy that impacts us this year.

但我的意思是，到目前為止，我們假設今年會有一些預購，但不會影響我們的大量預購。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞凱，奧本海默。

Thanks for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

Really great quarter for cash generation.

對於現金產生來說，這個季度真的很棒。

And as we look towards '25 and lapping some of the investments you made on the CapEx side, I think in the past, you talked about getting back to 100% free cash flow generation or free cash flow conversion.

當我們展望 25 並吸收您在資本支出方面所做的一些投資時，我認為您過去談到過恢復 100% 自由現金流產生或自由現金流轉換。

How do we think about share repurchases, that picking up here in 4Q levels for '25?

我們如何看待 25 年第四季的股票回購？

It had been a couple of years, but going back, you used to be pretty active on the repo front?

已經過去幾年了，但回想起來，您曾經在回購方面非常活躍？

I'll start by just saying that our new CFO is really helping to drive the free cash.

首先我要說的是，我們的新任財務長確實在幫助推動自由現金。

He's bringing a new level of discipline, a new level of accountability and a new level of focus on working capital management.

他將紀律、責任和對營運資本管理的關注提高到了新的水平。

With that, I will hand it over to Michael to actually answer that question.

這樣，我將把它交給邁克爾來實際回答這個問題。

And I'll just add on that.

我就補充一下。

That's one of the initiatives I've started is trying to align the organization on working capital management, especially as we look to get 90% or even close to 100% of free cash to net income.

我開始的舉措之一是嘗試使組織在營運資本管理方面保持一致，特別是當我們希望將 90% 甚至接近 100% 的自由現金用於淨利潤時。

So it's something we're focused on over the next couple of years.

所以這是我們未來幾年重點關注的事情。

But yes, we are generating a lot of cash.

但是，是的，我們正在產生大量現金。

And our deployment strategy is going to be basically consistent where every year, we're going to increase our dividend.

我們的部署策略將基本保持一致，每年我們都會增加股利。

We're going to look at our dividend yield compared to growth companies in the S&P 500.

我們將比較我們的股息殖利率與標準普爾 500 指數中的成長型公司的比較。

So we'll do that.

所以我們會這麼做。

And then we're also evaluating bolt-on acquisitions that have to have the right fit with the right returns on it.

然後我們也正在評估補強收購，這些收購必須具有適當的契合度和適當的回報。

So we're being very disciplined in that, but we're definitely focused there.

所以我們在這方面非常自律，但我們絕對專注於此。

And then thereafter, it's going to be about share repurchases.

此後，將涉及股票回購。

We started getting back into share repurchases this quarter.

本季我們開始重新進行股票回購。

We'll continue to do those, but it will be kind of a tool to efficiently deploy back capital if we don't do acquisitions.

我們將繼續這樣做，但如果我們不進行收購，這將成為一種有效部署回流資本的工具。

Okay.

好的。

And can you talk a little bit about that acquisition pipeline and what your needs might be at this moment?

您能談談收購管道以及您目前的需求嗎？

Yes, I think what we've looked at is different technologies, kind of bolt-on technologies in the commercial space that just gives us a better product offering with our commercial customers.

是的，我認為我們所關注的是不同的技術，商業領域的補充技術，這些技術為我們的商業客戶提供了更好的產品。

We've looked at distribution opportunities to have a full assortment of products that we can sell through our residential distribution network.

我們研究了分銷機會，以擁有可以透過我們的住宅分銷網絡銷售的全系列產品。

Those are 2 big ones.

這是2個大的。

And then there's just different technologies to make our products smarter either on the thermostats, IAQ.

然後有不同的技術可以使我們的產品在恆溫器、室內空氣品質方面變得更加智慧。

So it's a host of things that we're looking at.

所以我們正在關注很多事情。

But again, they got to have the right fit and the right price.

但同樣，他們必須有合適的款式和合適的價格。

And I would add to that, remember, I mean, we are also trying to be more of a distributor versus just a manufacturer.

我想補充一點，請記住，我的意思是，我們也試著成為更多的經銷商，而不是製造商。

And there's a big opportunity for products that our dealers buy or a key accounts buy that we don't sell today.

對於我們的經銷商購買的產品或大客戶購買但我們今天不出售的產品來說，這是一個巨大的機會。

So if we could look at appropriate products and technologies, as Michael said, and bring them into our network, that would be significantly value-enhancing to our shareholders.

因此，如果我們能夠像麥可所說的那樣尋找合適的產品和技術，並將其引入我們的網絡，這將為我們的股東帶來顯著的價值提升。

So we are very disciplined in capital allocation.

因此，我們在資本配置方面非常嚴格。

And as Michael said, we will look at all those opportunities and balance this appropriately, but it starts with strong cash flow, which I think Michael and the team are doing a great job at.

正如邁克爾所說，我們將關注所有這些機會並適當平衡，但它始於強勁的現金流，我認為邁克爾和團隊在這方面做得很好。

Great.

偉大的。

I'll have some follow-ups offline.

我會在線下進行一些跟進。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Morning, Deane.

早上好，迪恩。

I saw that the plan to build share in emergency replacement is highlighted on the outlook for '25.

我看到在 25 年的展望中強調了建立緊急更換份額的計劃。

You talked about this before.

你之前談過這個。

Can you just share some color on what it means to refocus on that business.

您能否分享一下重新專注於該業務意味著什麼？

My understanding is you will need to boost inventory in the field because you need 24-hour turnaround, and the customers have to know this and it's either you're ready for that order or you miss it entirely.

我的理解是，您需要增加現場庫存，因為您需要 24 小時週轉，客戶必須知道這一點，要么您已準備好接受該訂單，要么您完全錯過它。

So what kind of working capital burden increase are you looking at to fill emergency replacement and can you size that?

那麼，您希望增加什麼樣的營運資金負擔來填補緊急替換，您能確定其規模嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Deane, that's a very good question.

迪恩，這是一個很好的問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I agree with you that going back to emergency replacement requires a lot of effort.

我同意你的看法，恢復緊急更換需要付出很大的努力。

It starts with us having more manufacturing capacity, then it goes into making sure we have appropriate inventory within 24 hours and in some cases, market the same day.

首先是我們擁有更多的製造能力，然後確保我們在 24 小時內擁有適當的庫存，在某些情況下，當天就能上市。

And then finally, it also comes down to having the right feet on the street and getting all the contractors who may have gone to something else or someone else to come back and look at that.

最後，這也取決於在街上站穩腳跟，並讓所有可能已經去了其他地方或其他人的承包商回來看看。

And we're doing all of that.

我們正在做這一切。

Most of the working capital impact will be in 2025, and we'll be happy to come back and look at it.

大部分營運資金影響將在 2025 年發生，我們很樂意回來看看。

But I can also tell you, it won't be as material because today, we have excess working capital, but it's on the raw product side as we are starting factories and transitioning factories, I would look to redeploy a lot of that working capital from raw materials more into finished goods and closer to the customer.

但我也可以告訴你，它不會那麼重要，因為今天我們有多餘的營運資金，但它是在原材料方面，因為我們正在開辦工廠和轉型工廠，我希望重新部署大量營運資金從原材料更多地轉化為成品，更貼近客戶。

So it's pretty heavy moves.

所以這是相當沉重的舉動。

But from a financial perspective, I would expect a lot of that come from the additional raw inventory we are carrying as part of start-up.

但從財務角度來看，我預計其中很大一部分來自我們作為新創公司的一部分所持有的額外原材料庫存。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then second question from Michael.

然後是麥可的第二個問題。

On ROIC, Lennox is so far ahead of anyone else in industrials.

在投入資本回報率方面，Lennox 遠遠領先於工業領域的其他任何人。

I think from our coverage, you're probably -- you're nearly 2x bigger versus the next closest competitor.

我認為從我們的報告來看，您的規模可能是第二位最接近的競爭對手的近兩倍。

So just kind of talk us through, as you make decisions, investment decisions, CapEx decisions, are you looking at the ROIC impact?

請告訴我們，當您做出決策、投資決策、資本支出決策時，您是否考慮了投資報酬率的影響？

Do you hesitate at all in investments?

您在投資上還在猶豫不決嗎？

I know it's a rhetorical question and you're going to just know, but just the idea that you will, at times, pressure ROIC, so is this more of an outcome or a target the way you think about it in the company?

我知道這是一個反問句，你只會知道，但只是你有時會對投資回報率施加壓力，所以這更像是一個結果還是一個目標，就像你在公司中思考的方式一樣？

Yes.

是的。

What I'll say is that our industry-leading ROIC is mostly driven by our organic disciplined approach to investments.

我要說的是，我們行業領先的投資回報率主要是由我們嚴格的投資方法所推動的。

So we've not done a lot of inorganic acquisitions.

所以我們沒有進行很多無機收購。

Obviously, when you do those, they will be dilutive.

顯然，當你這樣做時，它們會被稀釋。

But when we look at acquisitions like we did with AES, it was a good ROIC, well above 20%, but still below the 47% that we're tracking.

但當我們像收購 AES 那樣審視收購時，我們發現這是一個很好的投資報酬率，遠高於 20%，但仍低於我們追蹤的 47%。

So we'll continue to look at bolt-on acquisitions that are above our cost of capital.

因此，我們將繼續考慮高於我們資本成本的補強收購。

And then from a capital expenditure perspective, we do the same thing.

然後從資本支出的角度來看，我們做同樣的事情。

So we're not necessarily targeted on growing above 47%, but we wanted to stay 40% and have good ROI projects on these CapEx.

因此，我們的目標不一定是成長 47% 以上，但我們希望保持 40% 並在這些資本支出上擁有良好的投資報酬率項目。

And so we're looking at both on the organic capital expenditures and the inorganic acquisitions to have healthy ROIC above our cost of capital.

因此，我們正在考慮有機資本支出和無機收購，以使健康的投資回報率高於我們的資本成本。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

布雷特·林澤，瑞穗。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Congrats on the quarter.

恭喜本季。

I wanted to come back to the early thinking on 2025 and the 30% incremental comment on low GWP.

我想回到對 2025 年的早期思考以及對低 GWP 的 30% 增量評論。

Is that a volume incremental comment and then price mix should drop through at something above that, similar to this year?

這是一個數量增量評論，然後價格組合應該會下降到高於這個水平，類似於今年？

Just hoping you could maybe parse those pieces out.

只是希望你能解析出這些片段。

Yes.

是的。

What we're expecting, it's more of a kind of a price cost that will come through, we'll have mix up for the pricing that we just talked about and then the drop-through on that mix will be at least 30% to maintain our gross margins and reflect the additional costs that we're having to put into the product and investments that we're making.

我們所期望的是，這更多的是一種將要發生的價格成本，我們將混合我們剛才談到的定價，然後該混合的下降將至少為 30%維持我們的毛利率並反映我們必須投入到我們正在製作的產品和投資中的額外成本。

Our volume incrementals are also similar to 30%.

我們的銷售量增量也接近 30%。

So we have both kind of dropping through at 30% the mix next year and our normal volume gains.

因此，明年我們的產品組合會下降 30%，而我們的銷量會正常成長。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just thinking about new versus replacement in residential, obviously, new housing has been a drag.

然後，只要考慮住宅的新建與更換，顯然，新建住宅一直是個拖累。

How much was that down so far this year?

今年到目前為止下降了多少？

And then you noted some of the value tier growth for next year.

然後您注意到明年的一些價值層成長。

Thinking about a better housing environment and some of the investment, should you maybe pick up some share in new housing next year or grow in line with the market?

考慮到更好的住房環境和一些投資，明年你是否應該購買一些新房，或跟隨市場成長？

Any thoughts there?

有什麼想法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think we are starting to see some green shoots in new housing.

我認為我們開始看到新住房的一些萌芽。

So we are like either bouncing along the bottom or we are coming off from the trough from new housing.

所以我們要么沿著底部彈跳，要么從新住房的低谷中走出來。

So that's positive.

所以這是積極的。

And remember, we are kind of 6 months behind the new housing starts number that you might see.

請記住，我們比您可能看到的新房屋開工數據晚了 6 個月。

Our share position in there remains very strong.

我們在那裡的份額仍然非常強勁。

And on the replacement side, again, if you believe even the recent Wall Street Journal article about homeowners starting to do more repairs and renovations, we think higher demand there will probably result from lower interest rates and consumer confidence.

在更換方面，如果你相信最近《華爾街日報》關於房主開始進行更多維修和翻新的文章，我們認為更高的需求可能會因為較低的利率和消費者信心而導致。

But all that said, there's just a lot of uncertainty.

但儘管如此，還是存在著許多不確定性。

On the value tier, our comment was driven by because of the SEER changes, because of the pricing levels and because of the higher interest rates that are prevailing versus a few years ago.

關於價值層，我們的評論是由於 SEER 的變化、定價水平以及與幾年前相比普遍較高的利率而做出的。

So we just want to watch out for that going forward.

所以我們只想關注未來的情況。

So a lot more for us to analyze and evaluate before we come to you in 2025 and give you more firm guidance on those things.

因此，在 2025 年為您提供更堅定的指導之前，我們還有很多事情需要分析和評估。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Appreciate the insights.

欣賞這些見解。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Morning.

早晨。

Tusa.

圖薩。

What do you think is driving distributors to stock up in like the last couple of months of the summer when the demand is effectively like maybe flat up a little bit and you have this transition coming?

您認為是什麼促使經銷商在夏季的最後幾個月進行備貨，當時需求實際上可能會略有下降，並且您即將迎來這種轉變？

What's kind of the -- what's the driver there?

那裡的司機是什麼樣的人？

Yes.

是的。

And I think, Steve, it depends on which type of distributors.

我認為，史蒂夫，這取決於哪種類型的分銷商。

I mean, we can talk about our distributors.

我的意思是，我們可以談談我們的經銷商。

We haven't seen our distributors stocking up.

我們還沒有看到我們的經銷商備貨。

We are seeing our distributors going away from destocking.

我們看到我們的經銷商不再去庫存。

So they're going back to normal inventory levels that existed pre-COVID.

因此，他們將恢復到新冠疫情爆發前的正常庫存水準。

And we haven't seen them taking extraordinary measures to stock up.

我們還沒有看到他們採取非常措施來備貨。

Now I think in Q4, they might do some 410 prebuy to get some price advantage versus 454B, but I have not seen any -- at least from our distributors that we work with any big push to stock up.

現在我認為在第四季度，他們可能會預購一些410，以獲得相對於454B 的一些價格優勢，但我還沒有看到任何——至少從我們的經銷商那裡看到，我們與任何大力推動庫存。

And I'll just add on top of the comps.

我將在比較的基礎上添加一些內容。

If you go back to Q3 last year, that channel was down 20% due to destocking.

如果你回到去年第三季度，由於去庫存，該通路下降了 20%。

So definitely favorable comps year-over-year as they restock, as Alok mentioned.

正如阿洛克所提到的，當他們重新進貨時，絕對是逐年有利的競爭。

Got it.

知道了。

And then when it comes to the pricing for next year.

然後談到明年的定價。

So you're saying 10%-plus on 70% of your revenue, I think, 65% penetration.

所以你說的是 70% 收入的 10% 以上，我認為是 65% 的滲透率。

So that kind of gets you into firmly in the mid-single-digit plus range for price for next year kind of capture for the segment.

因此，這會讓你的價格穩定在中個位數以上的範圍內，以便明年佔領該細分市場。

Is that like the right math that you're talking about?

這就像你所說的正確的數學嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We'll get you greater clarity in 2025 because I do -- we'll have more clarity, both on like 65-35, 454B.

我們將在 2025 年為您提供更清晰的信息，因為我確實 - 我們將在 65-35、454B 等方面提供更清晰的信息。

But I think that's roughly the right math and the way you looked at it right now.

但我認為這大致是正確的數學和你現在看待它的方式。

But remember most is going to look at mix versus price, right, because these are brand-new products.

但請記住，大多數人會考慮組合與價格，對吧，因為這些是全新產品。

Right.

正確的。

So this is mix versus like just pure price.

所以這是混合價格與純價格的比較。

But that is the right math right now, it's around 5%, 6%?

但現在這是正確的數學，大約是 5%、6%？

Mid-single digit is a good range.

中個位數是一個不錯的範圍。

And I'll just add, the stick rate we normally see regulatory transitions as high because we're making a lot of cost investment we need to stick it.

我只想補充一點，我們通常認為監管轉型的堅持率很高，因為我們正在進行大量成本投資，我們需要堅持下去。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just lastly, I guess, with the combination of the prebuy for the industry, at least maybe perhaps more.

最後，我想，結合產業的預購，至少可能更多。

Some of the things you talked about is being uncertain as far as consumer confidence, repair versus replace all that.

您談到的一些事情在消費者信心、維修與更換等方面都是不確定的。

Do you expect like industry volumes next year at this stage to be down, industry volumes?

您預計明年現階段的產業銷售會下降嗎？

You've talked about your share gains, but is the industry volume down next year, do you think?

您談到了您的份額成長，但您認為明年行業銷量會下降嗎？

Listen, from my perspective, I would say the industry volume, and this is installed on the ground, so away from any like distributor stock in or stock out and all that.

聽著，從我的角度來看，我會說行業數量，這是安裝在地面上的，因此遠離任何像經銷商進貨或缺貨之類的東西。

I would think it's going to be flat to slightly up next year.

我認為明年會持平甚至略有上升。

And a lot of that is just driven by ongoing trends, age of units and the cost of repair versus replace.

其中很大一部分是由當前的趨勢、設備的使用年限以及維修與更換的成本所驅動的。

But I wish I could predict that more accurately, Steve, everybody is going to have a different view on this.

但我希望我能更準確地預測，史蒂夫，每個人對此都會有不同的看法。

And interest rates are going to have a heavy influence in that as well.

利率也會對此產生重大影響。

Right.

正確的。

And then sorry, one more question.

抱歉，還有一個問題。

But remember new home construction is picking up, so right?

但請記住，新房屋建設正在加速，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Sorry, one more question from maybe the guy that overanalyze as you said, whatever the comment was.

抱歉，無論評論是什麼，可能是像你所說的過度分析的人提出的另一個問題。

The share gains this year with your competitors that have been like out of the market, why are those sustainable?

今年你的競爭對手的市佔率成長已經退出市場，為什麼這些是可持續的？

Why isn't that like a tough comp into next year?

為什麼這不像明年的艱難比賽？

Are they -- is this kind of structural share gain you think you've taken because of that?

您認為您因此而獲得了這種結構性份額收益嗎？

Whenever somebody stumbles some of that becomes permanent.

每當有人跌倒時，其中的一些就會變成永久性的。

Like when we stumbled with the tornado, it took us years in 6 years to get that share back.

就像我們遭遇龍捲風時一樣，我們花了六年時間才拿回份額。

So when I look at our past tumbles and some dealers will switch back, some won't.

因此，當我回顧過去的跌勢時，有些經銷商會轉回來，有些則不會。

So I mean, I -- that's my part -- our comment is our goal is to make them as permanent as possible.

所以我的意思是，我——這就是我的部分——我們的評論是我們的目標是讓它們盡可能永久。

But that's where execution comes down and see what works.

但這就是執行力的關鍵，看看什麼有效。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hood morning.

胡德早上。

We covered a lot of ground.

我們涵蓋了很多領域。

And let's not overanalyze this situation.

我們不要過度分析這種情況。

But what is the feedback from your end customers, the contractors, the dealers on A2L?

但是您的最終客戶、承包商、經銷商對 A2L 的回饋如何？

I mean have they come to terms with the technology, the training requirements, et cetera?

我的意思是，他們是否接受了技術、訓練要求等？

Do they actually want to have A2L or do they want to take as much 410A they can?

他們真的想要 A2L 還是想要盡可能多的 410A？

And I'm just wondering, this dynamic of 4Q versus 1Q, if you're going to increase prices effective 2025, is there an incentive for them to stock up in 4Q versus 1Q?

我只是想知道，第四季與第一季的動態，如果你要從 2025 年起提高價格，他們是否有動力在第四季而不是第一季備貨？

Yes.

是的。

So talking about in contractors.

所以談論承包商。

I mean the good news is we are belly-to-belly with 10,000 of them, and I can tell you, all 10,000 have 10,000 -- like individual views.

我的意思是，好消息是我們與其中的 10,000 人面對面地交談，我可以告訴你，所有 10,000 人都有 10,000 個人的觀點。

So depending on who you ask, you will get that view.

因此，取決於你問誰，你會得到這樣的觀點。

In general, I would say most contractors would prefer to continue doing what they are doing.

總的來說，我想說大多數承包商更願意繼續做他們正在做的事情。

They are change resistant, but they also realize that they don't have a choice, and they have to move to 454B.

他們抵制變革，但他們也意識到自己別無選擇，必須轉向 454B。

It only comes down to some of them, especially the high-end one will want to move sooner versus later because they're selling a high-end product and they're not at the bottom end of the range.

這只取決於其中的一些人，尤其是高端產品，他們會希望儘早採取行動，而不是推遲行動，因為他們銷售的是高端產品，而且並不處於該範圍的最低端。

Others who are more chuck in a truck and at the bottom end of the range, they will want to keep doing 410A as long as possible.

其他喜歡卡車和處於該範圍底端的人，他們會希望盡可能長時間地繼續使用 410A。

On the positive side, it's been well accepted.

從積極的一面來看，它已被廣泛接受。

People have gone through training, people understand how to install it.

人們已經接受過培訓，人們了解如何安裝它。

We are spending a lot of time doing training.

我們花了很多時間進行培訓。

Other distributors are doing a lot of time doing training.

其他經銷商花費了大量時間進行培訓。

So that will happen.

所以這將會發生。

Is there a risk that some of them will stock up more on 410A at the end of the quarter because they do have garages and barns, they may not have warehouses?

是否存在一些風險：他們中的一些人會在季度末增加 410A 的庫存，因為他們確實有車庫和穀倉，但他們可能沒有倉庫？

Yes, I think there is a risk to that.

是的，我認為這有風險。

I mean that's the risk we deal with every year.

我的意思是，這就是我們每年都要應對的風險。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

I'm just -- got vision of barn being used to stock up HVAC units.

我只是——看到穀倉被用來儲存暖通空調設備。

We have to do some barn visits.

我們必須參觀一些穀倉。

And then just...

然後就...

I was at a barn in Wisconsin and actually saw that.

我當時在威斯康辛州的一個穀倉裡，親眼目睹了這一幕。

Yes. side-by-side with the cheese.

是的。與起司並排。

Then just thinking then about just conceptually, the repair versus replace dynamic.

然後從概念上考慮修復與更換動態。

If we're in a 454B world and you've got a 410A system or 20 system, you're going to have to replace the whole system if you're going to replace instead of just a component replacement, et cetera.

如果我們處於 454B 世界，並且您有 410A 系統或 20 系統，如果您要更換而不僅僅是更換組件，則必須更換整個系統，等等。

So why wouldn't there be more kind of compressor replacements or motor replacements or whatever in a world where we're putting through another 10% price?

那麼，在我們再降價 10% 的情況下，為什麼不會有更多種類的壓縮機更換或馬達更換或其他類似的產品呢？

I'm just trying to figure out here whether we will see kind of more of a repair mix as we transition through this A2L.

我只是想弄清楚，當我們過渡到 A2L 時，我們是否會看到更多的修復組合。

Does it make sense?

有道理嗎？

I think fundamentally -- it does, absolutely.

我認為從根本上來說——確實如此。

I still think it comes down to the age of the unit.

我仍然認為這取決於設備的年齡。

So if the unit is 5-year old and it's got a compressor broken, the dealer is likely to come and change the compressor.

因此，如果設備已使用 5 年且壓縮機損壞，經銷商很可能會來更換壓縮機。

If it's a 12 to 15-year-old unit where the compressors broken and the motor is making noises, they're likely to replace the whole system.

如果設備使用了 12 到 15 年，且壓縮機損壞且馬達發出噪音，他們可能會更換整個系統。

In the 12- to 15-year-old unit, because the extra cost of 410A, once it spikes and it has not spiked yet, becomes an additional factor that comes into play.

在 12 到 15 年的設備中，因為 410A 的額外成本一旦達到峰值並且尚未達到峰值，就會成為發揮作用的另一個因素。

So I don't think it's just like the R-22 to 410A pieces in the beginning years, it didn't change the repair to replace, but in the future years, it did move it more towards replacement versus repair.

所以我不認為它就像最初幾年的R-22到410A一樣，它沒有將維修改為更換，但在未來的幾年裡，它確實更多地朝著更換而不是維修的方向發展。

I think the same thing is going to happen, probably no impact in 2025 for repair versus replace, but in future years it will.

我認為同樣的事情也會發生，到 2025 年，維修與更換可能不會產生影響，但在未來幾年會發生。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just a quick one and probably the last question here.

然後是一個簡短的問題，可能是這裡的最後一個問題。

Have you sized the dollar TAM for the emergency replacement market for commercial?

您是否已針對商業緊急替換市場評估了美元 TAM 的規模？

What sort of share do you think you can get at that TAM?

您認為您可以在該 TAM 中獲得什麼樣的份額？

We haven't sized or broadcast that yet, but we know what we used to have, and we also know that the industry broadly has a healthy mix between emergency replacement and key account, and we are essentially almost all key accounts.

我們還沒有確定規模或廣播這一點，但我們知道我們曾經擁有什麼，我們也知道該行業在緊急更換和大客戶之間廣泛存在健康的組合，而且我們基本上都是大客戶。

So the industry is 60%-40%, we are probably 90%-10% in that in terms of 90% key account and 10% emergency replacement.

所以這個產業是60%-40%，我們可能是90%-10%，就90%的關鍵客戶和10%的緊急更換而言。

So we do know we have a significant opportunity for us to take that forward.

所以我們確實知道我們有一個重要的機會來推動這一進程。

You can take that and multiply it by AHRI industry data, but the industry is a lot more weighted towards emergency replacement than we are.

您可以將其乘以 AHRI 行業數據，但該行業比我們更注重緊急更換。

Maybe next year, we will come back and give you some sizing on that.

也許明年，我們會回來給你一些尺寸。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

Since there are no further questions, this will conclude Lennox's 2024 third quarter conference call.

由於沒有其他問題，Lennox 的 2024 年第三季電話會議就此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。