Lennox International Inc (LII) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Lennox First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded. And I would now like to turn the conference over to Chelsey Pulcheon from the Lennox Investor Relations team. Chelsey, please go ahead.

歡迎參加 Lennox 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，此通話正在錄音。現在我想將會議交給 Lennox 投資者關係團隊的 Chelsey Pulcheon。切爾西，請繼續。

Thank you, Savanna. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. We are excited to share our 2024 first quarter results. Joining me as CEO, Alok Maskara; and CFO, Michael Quenzer. Each will share their prepared remarks before we move into the Q&A session.

謝謝你，薩凡娜。早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我們很高興分享 2024 年第一季的業績。 Alok Maskara 與我一起擔任執行長；和財務長邁克爾·昆澤。在我們進入問答環節之前，每個人都將分享他們準備好的演講。

Turning to Slide 2. A reminder that during today's call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as outlined on this page. We may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that management considers relevant indicators of underlying business performance. Please refer to our SEC filings available on our Investor Relations website for additional details, including a reconciliation of all GAAP to non-GAAP measures. The earnings release, today's presentation and the website archive link for today's call are available on our Investor Relations website at investor.lennox.com.

轉向投影片 2。我們也可能參考管理階層認為基本業務績效相關指標的某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們的投資者關係網站上提供的 SEC 文件，以了解更多詳細信息，包括所有 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的調整表。收益發布、今天的演示以及今天電話會議的網站存檔連結可在我們的投資者關係網站 Investor.lennox.com 上取得。

Now please turn to Slide 3 as I turn the call over to our CEO, Alok Maskara.

現在請翻到投影片 3，我將把電話轉給我們的執行長 Alok Maskara。

Thank you, Chelsey. Good morning. I want to begin by expressing my gratitude to our customers and employees whose loyalty to Lennox helped us deliver strong Q1 results marked by record profit margins. Specifically, I want to extend my appreciation to our dealers, distributors and key account customers for trusting Lennox to deliver industry leading HVACR products and solutions across North America. The success of our transformational effort to strengthen our distribution network, elevate customer experience, advance innovative platforms, execute pricing excellence and drive productivity can be entirely credited to the unwavering support from our employees and customers.

謝謝你，切爾西。早安.首先，我要向我們的客戶和員工表示感謝，他們對 Lennox 的忠誠幫助我們實現了強勁的第一季業績，利潤率創歷史新高。具體來說，我想對我們的經銷商、經銷商和大客戶客戶表示感謝，感謝他們信任 Lennox 在北美地區提供業界領先的 HVACR 產品和解決方案。我們在加強分銷網絡、提升客戶體驗、推進創新平台、執行卓越定價和提高生產力方面所做的轉型努力取得了成功，這完全歸功於我們員工和客戶堅定不移的支持。

This successful quarter further demonstrates our ability to maintain our growth momentum, navigate complex end markets and effectively prepare for the upcoming low GWP regulatory changes.

這個成功的季度進一步證明了我們有能力保持成長勢頭、駕馭複雜的終端市場並為即將到來的低全球升溫潛能值監管變化做好有效準備。

Now let's dive into the details of this quarter on Slide 3 where I would like to highlight 4 key messages: first, Lennox's core revenue grew 6% and our adjusted segment margin expanded 157 basis points to 15.9% resulting in our adjusted earnings per share increasing 23% to $3.47.

現在讓我們在幻燈片3 上深入了解本季度的詳細信息，其中我想強調4 個關鍵信息：首先，Lennox 的核心收入增長了6%，調整後的分部利潤率擴大了157 個基點，達到15.9%，導致我們調整後的每股盈餘增加23% 至 3.47 美元。

Our operating cash usage was $23 million, a significant improvement from $79 million usage in the prior year. Second, Home Comfort Solutions delivered a slight revenue decline alongside moderate EBIT growth.

我們的營運現金使用量為 2,300 萬美元，比前一年的 7,900 萬美元有了顯著改善。其次，家庭舒適解決方案的收入略有下降，但息稅前利潤適度成長。

With the destocking effect on volume, counterbalanced by price and mix, we delivered 30 basis point margin expansion, and we are all glad to see the destocking phase nearing its end. Third, our Building Climate Solutions team delivered record Q1 margins supported by both revenue and profit growth. We remain on track for the opening of our new Saltillo Mexico factory in early Q3, which will enable us to fully satisfy customer demand and outgrew presence in emergency replacement market segment.

由於去庫存對數量的影響，以及價格和產品組合的抵消，我們實現了 30 個基點的利潤率擴張，我們都很高興看到去庫存階段即將結束。第三，在營收和利潤成長的支持下，我們的建築氣候解決方案團隊在第一季實現了創紀錄的利潤率。我們仍有望在第三季初開設墨西哥薩爾蒂約新工廠，這將使我們能夠充分滿足客戶需求，並滿足緊急更換市場的需求。

Lastly, we are delighted to announce the updated fiscal guidance for this year as the Q1 results give us greater confidence in our earnings per share range. Michael will provide a detailed review of the guidance later in the call. But for now, let's turn to Slide 4 for more details on the upcoming low GWP refrigerant transition.

最後，我們很高興宣布今年更新的財務指引，因為第一季的業績讓我們對每股盈餘範圍更有信心。邁克爾將在稍後的電話會議中提供對該指南的詳細審查。但現在，讓我們轉向幻燈片 4，以了解有關即將到來的低 GWP 冷媒過渡的更多詳細資訊。

We are fully prepared and on schedule for the upcoming refrigerant transition. Our product designs, manufacturing processes and technology engineering have all been finalized. We are currently transitioning our raw material inventory to facilitate the product launches, and we plan to start shipping the new low GWP refrigerant product, later this year in time to meet expected demand, we anticipate price increase of 10-plus percent for the new product line.

我們已為即將到來的冷媒過渡做好了充分準備並按計劃進行。我們的產品設計、製造流程和技術工程均已最終確定。我們目前正在轉變原材料庫存以促進產品發布，我們計劃在今年稍後開始運輸新的低 GWP 冷媒產品，以滿足預期需求，我們預計新產品的價格將上漲 10% 以上線。

During this low GWP transition, we will face manufacturing headwinds as we convert each production line in our factories. Our approach to reconfiguring our factories will effectively balance production flexibility with cost efficiency. Looking ahead, we foresee 2024 as predominantly in R-410A refrigerant year.

在全球升溫潛能值較低的過渡期間，我們在改造工廠的每條生產線時將面臨製造逆風。我們重新配置工廠的方法將有效平衡生產彈性與成本效率。展望未來，我們預期 2024 年將是 R-410A 冷媒為主的一年。

As we move into 2025, we expect the demand for the new low GWP product to reach approximately half to 2/3 of the end market. This shift in demand will benefit our product mix and also position us favorably to capture market share. Ultimately, we are well prepared and confident in our ability to navigate this transition successfully.

進入 2025 年，我們預計對新型低 GWP 產品的需求將達到終端市場的約一半至 2/3。這種需求的轉變將有利於我們的產品組合，也使我們有利於佔領市場佔有率。最終，我們已做好充分準備，並對成功完成這項轉變的能力充滿信心。

Now please turn to Slide 5 for an overview of our initiatives to become a better distributor of HVAC products. As you know, Lennox is a top-tier HVAC distributor in North America with substantial geographical coverage through over 250 outlets supported by more than 25 regional distribution centers. Nearly 45% of Lennox's residential sales are now through our digital platform, lennoxpros.com where our contractor partners also have access to a digital service dashboard for equipment prognosis, diagnosis and monitoring. We have the opportunity to grow our market share by expanding geographic coverage and improve our share of wallet through greater focus on parts and accessories.

現在請參閱投影片 5，以了解我們為成為更好的 HVAC 產品經銷商所採取的措施的概述。如您所知，Lennox 是北美頂級 HVAC 分銷商，在超過 25 個區域分銷中心的支援下擁有 250 多個銷售點，覆蓋廣泛的地理區域。 Lennox 近 45% 的住宅銷售現在是透過我們的數位平台 lennoxpros.com 進行的，我們的承包商合作夥伴還可以透過該平台存取數位服務儀表板以進行設備預測、診斷和監控。我們有機會透過擴大地理覆蓋範圍來擴大我們的市場份額，並透過更加關注零件和配件來提高我們的錢包份額。

We also have an opportunity to increase dealer loyalty with improved fill rate and an enhanced customer experience. The distribution network improvements and the 3 core changes highlighted on this page will accelerate our growth and increase our margin resiliency. First, we have established a decentralized and better aligned organization that is consistent with distribution best practices.

我們還有機會透過提高填充率和增強客戶體驗來提高經銷商忠誠度。分銷網絡的改進和本頁突出顯示的 3 個核心變化將加速我們的成長並提高我們的利潤彈性。首先，我們建立了一個去中心化且協調一致的組織，該組織符合分銷最佳實踐。

As a result, local leaders who have better visibility into local market conditions will have increased autonomy for faster decision-making. Furthermore, we have established 5 regional P&Ls led by experienced leaders who are accountable for both regional sales and stores. In addition, we are building our capabilities in critical areas such as revenue operations, pricing excellence and distribution management. This is a long-term journey, and we are pleased with the early progress we have seen thus far.

因此，能夠更好地了解當地市場狀況的當地領導人將擁有更大的自主權，可以更快地做出決策。此外，我們還建立了 5 個區域損益表，由經驗豐富的領導者領導，負責區域銷售和門市。此外，我們正在建立收入營運、卓越定價和分銷管理等關鍵領域的能力。這是一個長期的旅程，我們對迄今為止所看到的早期進展感到高興。

Second, to improve the quality of our customer service, we completed a physical distribution network analysis to ensure that we have sufficient growth capacity and optimal cost structure. We have streamlined and digitized our end-to-end demand and inventory deployment processes, and we are also implementing a modern warehouse management system throughout Lennox. It will take us a few years to fully realize the benefit of these changes. But thus far, we are pleased with the recent trend in our fulfillment rate.

其次，為了提高客戶服務質量，我們完成了物流網路分析，以確保我們有足夠的成長能力和最優的成本結構。我們已經簡化和數位化了端到端的需求和庫存部署流程，並且還在整個倫諾克斯實施了現代化的倉庫管理系統。我們需要幾年的時間才能充分認識到這些變化的好處。但到目前為止，我們對近期履行率的趨勢感到滿意。

Third, we have created customer charter for our businesses and have established Net Promoter Score practices across the company. This allows us to collect feedback and set numerical goals around our customer interactions. We are delighted with the improvements we are seeing in our Net Promoter Scores and know that this is a commitment that will continue to yield results over the long term.

第三，我們為我們的業務制定了客戶章程，並在整個公司範圍內建立了淨推薦值實踐。這使我們能夠收集回饋並圍繞客戶互動設定數位目標。我們對淨推薦值的改善感到非常高興，並且知道這項承諾將在長期內繼續產生成果。

To summarize, we are becoming a technology-enabled distributor, and we are investing in talent and resources to support this growth opportunity. While there are early signs of promising results, this is a multiyear endeavor that will accelerate growth and promote margin resiliency. Now let me hand the call over to Michael, who will take you through the details of Q1 financial performance.

總而言之，我們正在成為一家技術支援的經銷商，我們正在投資人才和資源來支持這個成長機會。雖然早期跡象表明結果良好，但這是一項多年的努力，將加速成長並提高利潤彈性。現在讓我將電話轉交給邁克爾，他將向您詳細介紹第一季的財務表現。

Thank you, Alok. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 6. Expanding on to Alok's earlier comments, I'm excited to share our Q1 results, which not only reflect a strong start to the year, but also highlight record first quarter margins and an impressive 23% growth in adjusted earnings per share. Core revenue was $1 billion, up 6% as price gains and revenue from the AES acquisition were the main drivers of year-over-year improvement. Adjusted segment profit increased $25 million, where most of the growth came from $40 million of price and mix benefits. This was partially offset by continued inflation and investment in SG&A and distribution.

謝謝你，阿洛克。大家，早安。請參閱幻燈片6。 23% 調整後收益成長每股。核心營收為 10 億美元，成長 6%，價格上漲和 AES 收購帶來的營收是年成長的主要推動力。調整後的部門利潤增加了 2500 萬美元，其中大部分成長來自 4000 萬美元的價格和組合效益。這被持續的通貨膨脹以及銷售管理、管理費用和分銷方面的投資所部分抵消。

Total adjusted segment margin was 15.9%, up approximately 160 basis points versus prior year. Corporate expenses were $24 million, which includes $3 million of expenses previously considered noncore adjustments. Beginning in 2024, we will include certain previously categorized noncore adjustments in our adjusted earnings.

調整後的分部利潤率為 15.9%，比上年增長約 160 個基點。公司費用為 2,400 萬美元，其中包括先前被視為非核心調整的 300 萬美元費用。從 2024 年開始，我們將在調整後收益中納入某些先前分類的非核心調整。

This approach aims to reduce recurring or immaterial adjustments, which improves our overall quality of earnings reported. Our adjusted earnings will continue to exclude the effects of business divestitures and significant nonrecurring items such as restructuring programs. Our first quarter tax rate was 19.4% and diluted shares outstanding were 35.8 million compared to 35.6 million in the prior year quarter.

這種方法旨在減少經常性或無關緊要的調整，從而提高我們報告收益的整體品質。我們的調整後收益將繼續排除業務剝離和重組計劃等重大非經常性項目的影響。我們第一季的稅率為 19.4%，攤薄後的流通股數為 3,580 萬股，而去年同期為 3,560 萬股。

Now let's direct our attention to Slide 7, where we can review the financial performance of our Home Comfort Solutions Segment. Revenue declined 1% to $681 million in the first quarter. The volume in our 2-step distribution channel continues to feel the effects of industry destocking and was down mid-teens. Our direct-to-contractor sales volumes were up low single digits with solid growth in the new construction channel as new homebuilding starts have rebounded.

現在讓我們將注意力轉向幻燈片 7，我們可以回顧家庭舒適解決方案部門的財務表現。第一季營收下降 1% 至 6.81 億美元。我們的兩步驟分銷管道的銷量繼續受到行業去庫存的影響，並下降了十幾歲。隨著新住宅開工量的反彈，我們的直接面向承包商的銷量成長了低個位數，新建築通路也實現了穩健成長。

Price yield was 3%, an improvement from the 2% price yield we earned in the second half of 2023, reflecting our successful execution of pricing initiatives in the quarter. The Home Comfort Solutions segment profit increased $1 million to $112 million, and segment margin also experienced approximately 30 basis points of growth to 16.6%, although pricing initiatives are progressing well, results are still impacted by inflation as well as the ongoing investments in distribution and sales.

價格收益率為 3%，比 2023 年下半年 2% 的價格收益率有所提高，反映出我們在本季度成功執行了定價措施。家庭舒適解決方案部門的利潤增加了100 萬美元，達到1.12 億美元，部門利潤率也增長了約30 個基點，達到16.6%，儘管定價舉措進展順利，但業績仍受到通貨膨脹以及分銷和分銷方面的持續投資的影響。

Overall, given the challenging conditions in the end market, we are proud of our execution to increase profit margins even with volume and mix headwinds. We are prepared to launch the new low GWP product in the coming months and ensure the new product pricing material maintains gross margins.

總體而言，考慮到終端市場充滿挑戰的環境，我們對即使在銷售和產品組合不利的情況下仍能提高利潤率的執行力感到自豪。我們準備在未來幾個月內推出新的低全球升溫潛能值產品，並確保新產品定價材料維持毛利率。

Turning to Slide 8 in our Building Climate Solutions segment that delivered another strong quarter. The Building Climate Solutions revenue was up an impressive 21% this quarter, propelled by 7% volume growth and our best performance in many quarters. Combined price and mix were up 8%, and revenue from our AES acquisition contributed 6% revenue growth in the quarter. Building Climate Solutions profit grew by $28 million or 56% and segment margin expanded 480 basis points to 21%. These results were primarily driven by price and sales volume gains. Our profit results also reflect $2 million headwind for our new Saltillo Mexico factory ramp-up expenses.

轉向我們的建築氣候解決方案部分的幻燈片 8，該部分又實現了強勁的季度業績。在銷量成長 7% 和我們多個季度最佳業績的推動下，本季建築氣候解決方案營收成長了 21%，令人印象深刻。綜合價格和產品組合成長了 8%，收購 AES 帶來的收入為本季貢獻了 6% 的營收成長。建築氣候解決方案利潤成長 2,800 萬美元，或 56%，部門利潤率擴大 480 個基點，達到 21%。這些業績主要是由價格和銷售成長所推動的。我們的利潤結果也反映出我們新薩爾蒂約墨西哥工廠的 200 萬美元的擴建費用。

Despite ongoing production and supply chain challenges, unit production volume from the Stuttgart, Arkansas factory shows steady improvement. Additionally, we are excited for product output from the new Saltillo factory in early Q3 and we'll launch our new low GWP product in early 2025. We continue to be impressed by the Building Climate Solutions team's strong efforts in executing initiatives to pave the way for achieving our long-term targets.

儘管生產和供應鏈面臨持續的挑戰，阿肯色州斯圖加特工廠的單位產量仍顯示出穩定成長。此外，我們對第三季初薩爾蒂約新工廠的產品產量感到興奮，我們將在2025 年初推出新的低GWP 產品。留下了深刻的印像以實現我們的長期目標。

If you will now turn to Slide 9, I will review our cash flow performance and capital deployment strategies. Operating cash flow used in the quarter was $23 million compared to $79 million in the prior year quarter. Capital expenditures were $30 million for the quarter, a decrease of $5 million compared to the prior year. Later in 2024, we anticipate temporary increases in working capital as we ramp up our new Saltillo, Mexico factory and prepare for the transition to the new low GWP product.

如果您現在翻到投影片 9，我將回顧我們的現金流量表現和資本部署策略。本季使用的營運現金流為 2,300 萬美元，而去年同期為 7,900 萬美元。本季資本支出為 3,000 萬美元，比上年減少 500 萬美元。 2024 年晚些時候，隨著我們擴建墨西哥薩爾蒂約新工廠並準備過渡到新的低 ​​GWP 產品，我們預計營運資金將暫時增加。

Concurrently, the team is focused on improving processes and generating efficiencies in both accounts payable and accounts receivable. Both items are reflected in our full year free cash flow guidance and long-term cash conversion targets. Our commitment to high ROIC drives strategic and targeted investments that enhance our performance and competitiveness in the marketplace. As previously mentioned, the new Saltillo factory and the transition to the new refrigerant products is proceeding as planned and showing positive progress.

同時，團隊專注於改善流程並提高應付帳款和應收帳款的效率。這兩個項目都反映在我們的全年自由現金流指導和長期現金轉換目標。我們對高投資報酬率的承諾推動了策略性和有針對性的投資，從而提高了我們在市場上的績效和競爭力。如前所述，新的薩爾蒂約工廠和向新冷媒產品的過渡正在按計劃進行，並取得了積極進展。

We also continue to look at bolt-on M&A opportunities that align closely with their overreaching company strategy. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.4x down from 2.1x in the prior year. Our approach to capital deployment remains consistent. We prioritize capital expenditure investments with strong returns, grow dividends with earnings, continue to explore M&A opportunities, and supplement with share repurchases when necessary. Additionally, we are committed to maintaining our investment-grade rating.

我們也繼續尋找與他們的超越公司策略緊密結合的補充併購機會。淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 1.4 倍，較前一年的 2.1 倍下降。我們的資本配置方法保持一致。我們優先考慮回報豐厚的資本支出投資，以獲利增加股息，繼續探索併購機會，並在必要時以股票回購作為補充。此外，我們致力於維持我們的投資等級。

Turning to Slide 10. Let's review the 2024 full year guidance. Our outlook on revenue provided during our last conference call remains unchanged as first quarter trends performed as expected. As a reminder, I will reiterate a few revenue guidance points. RECONNECT The table on the left highlights full year revenue growth factors. Total company revenue is projected to increase by approximately 7%. We also expect stable sales volumes with a slight increase from Building Climate Solutions and flat for Home Comfort solutions. Price and mix are expected to drive a mid-single-digit revenue growth where price increases will ensure we remain price/cost positive.

轉向幻燈片 10。我們在上次電話會議中提供的收入前景保持不變，因為第一季的趨勢符合預期。作為提醒，我將重申一些收入指引要點。重新連接 左表突顯了全年收入成長因素。公司總收入預計將成長約 7%。我們也預期建築氣候解決方案的銷售將保持穩定，而家庭舒適解決方案的銷售將持平。價格和產品組合預計將推動收入中個位數成長，其中價格上漲將確保我們保持價格/成本正值。

As a result of our strong first quarter profit performance, we are also revising our full year earnings per share guidance to $19 to $20 from the previously guided range of $18.50 to $20. Our free cash flow guidance remains unchanged at $500 million to $600 million. Those product and other cost assumptions also remain unchanged. Component cost inflation is anticipated to be up mid-single digits including large increases in our cost to acquire R-410A refrigerant and recent inflation in commodity prices. We expect this cost inflation to be partially offset by material cost reduction programs. We anticipate ramp-up costs of approximately $10 million for the new Saltillo Mexico factory, along with approximately $5 million to $10 million associated with the refrigerant transition across our home comfort solutions manufacturing facilities. SG&A expenses are expected to increase in the year, a result of both inflationary pressures and investments. Our investments are focused on resources to improve customer service, information system advancements and distribution growth initiatives.

由於我們第一季的利潤表現強勁，我們還將全年每股收益指引從先前的 18.50 美元至 20 美元調整為 19 至 20 美元。我們的自由現金流指引維持在 5 億至 6 億美元不變。這些產品和其他成本假設也保持不變。預計組件成本通膨將上升到中個位數，包括我們購買 R-410A 冷媒的成本大幅增加以及近期商品價格的通膨。我們預計這種成本上漲將被材料成本削減計劃部分抵銷。我們預計墨西哥薩爾蒂約新工廠的增加成本約為 1000 萬美元，以及與我們的家庭舒適解決方案製造工廠的冷媒過渡相關的約 500 萬至 1000 萬美元。由於通膨壓力和投資，預計今年的銷售、管理和行政費用將增加。我們的投資集中在改善客戶服務、資訊系統進步和分銷成長計劃的資源。

We will also be making investments in both sales and marketing to support our long-term growth targets. Capital expenditures remain unchanged at $175 million. Interest expense is still expected to be approximately $50 million and our tax rate is expected to be approximately 20%.

我們還將在銷售和行銷方面進行投資，以支持我們的長期成長目標。資本支出維持在 1.75 億美元不變。利息支出預計仍約為 5,000 萬美元，稅率預計約為 20%。

With that, please turn to Slide 11, and I'll turn it back to Alok for an overview of end markets.

接下來，請前往投影片 11，我將把它轉回 Alok 以了解終端市場的概述。

Thank you, Michael. On Slide 11, I will share our outlook on the end markets for both segments, which align with the full year guidance that Michael just went through. Within our Home Comfort Solutions segment, we have started to see a rebound in residential new construction, signaling consumer health resiliency. Nevertheless, we continue to closely monitor the repair versus replace dynamic amidst macro uncertainties. We are pleased to see distributor inventory return to near normal levels. However, the introduction of new low GWP refrigerant product and pending EPA updates on component manufacturing cutoff dates, does add inventory management ambiguity for dealers and distributors.

謝謝你，麥可。在幻燈片 11 上，我將分享我們對這兩個細分市場的終端市場的展望，這與邁克爾剛剛經歷的全年指導一致。在我們的家居舒適解決方案領域，我們已經開始看到住宅新建工程反彈，這表明消費者的健康彈性增強。儘管如此，在宏觀不確定性的情況下，我們將繼續密切關注維修與更換的動態。我們很高興看到經銷商庫存恢復到接近正常水準。然而，新的低 GWP 冷媒產品的推出以及 EPA 即將更新的零件製造截止日期確實為經銷商和分銷商增加了庫存管理的模糊性。

With that said, we anticipate that most of this year's sales will still come from R-410A products with limited adoption of the new R454B product towards the end of this year. Transitioning to the Building Climate Solutions segment, we expect deceleration in new construction accompanied by potential project delays. However, order rates and backlog remained strong driven by pent-up replacement demand. Insights from our National Account Services team highlight a significant upcoming need for replacements as well as increased interest in our new (inaudible) services.

儘管如此，我們預計今年的大部分銷售仍將來自 R-410A 產品，而到今年年底，新的 R454B 產品的採用有限。轉向建築氣候解決方案領域，我們預計新建築將成長放緩，並伴隨潛在的專案延誤。然而，在被壓抑的更換需求的推動下，訂單率和積壓仍然強勁。我們的國民帳戶服務團隊的見解強調了即將到來的重大更換需求以及對我們新（聽不清楚）服務的興趣增加。

Our market share prospects in the BCS segment will be driven by volume from the new Saltillo Mexico factory and our expansion in the emergency replacement market. We are also securing additional wins in national accounts with our new integrated offerings made possible due to the AES acquisition. Overall, our outlook for this year remains cautiously optimistic. Given Lennox's track record of success during regulatory transitions, we anticipate benefit from new product pricing and potential market share gain. We acknowledge that the market remain uncertain, but we are confident in our proactive strategies aimed at driving growth, optimizing margins and delivering exceptional value to our customers and shareholders.

我們在 BCS 領域的市場份額前景將受到墨西哥薩爾蒂約新工廠的銷售以及我們在緊急更換市場的擴張的推動。收購 AES 後，我們還透過新的整合產品確保了國民帳戶的額外勝利。總體而言，我們對今年的前景仍然謹慎樂觀。鑑於 Lennox 在監管過渡期間的成功記錄，我們預計將受益於新產品定價和潛在市場份額的成長。我們承認市場仍然存在不確定性，但我們對旨在推動成長、優化利潤並為客戶和股東提供卓越價值的積極策略充滿信心。

We do this by focusing on controllables and action items that we can drive. Now please turn to Slide 12. As a recap, Lennox operates in growth end markets, had resilient margins, demonstrates execution consistency and serves with customers through advanced technology and high-performance talent. The 5 reasons we remain confident in Lennox be a great investment opportunity is: first, we will continue to make strategic growth investments to improve our go-to-market effectiveness and support customer demand; second, margins remain a focus as we continue to evaluate our pricing strategy, implement innovative solutions to increase productivity and optimize our direct-to-dealer network; third, by leveraging the Lennox unified management system, our teams will be able to streamline processes, leverage best practices and consistently execute our strategy; fourth, our continued technological advancement will enable Lennox to remain at the forefront of innovation for our customers; finally, our team's focus on core values and guiding behaviors, is the foundation of a high-performance culture.

我們透過專注於我們可以推動的可控因素和行動項目來做到這一點。現在請前往投影片 12。我們對 Lennox 成為絕佳投資機會充滿信心的 5 個原因是：首先，我們將繼續進行策略性成長投資，以提高我們的上市效率並支援客戶需求；其次，隨著我們繼續評估我們的定價策略、實施創新解決方案以提高生產力並優化我們的直接經銷商網絡，利潤率仍然是一個焦點；第三，透過利用 Lennox 統一管理系統，我們的團隊將能夠簡化流程、利用最佳實踐並始終如一地執行我們的策略；第四，我們持續的技術進步將使 Lennox 始終處於客戶創新的前沿；最後，我們團隊對核心價值和指導行為的關注是高績效文化的基礎。

Our pay-for-performance incentive structure further aligns the talents of our team with the interest of our shareholders. Allow me to wrap up by saying thank you to each of our dedicated employees and valued customers. I'm proud of all that we have been able to accomplish, and I'm looking forward to the promising future that lies ahead of Lennox, as our best days are still ahead of us. Thank you. We'll be happy to take your questions now. Savannah, let's go to Q&A.

我們的績效薪酬激勵結構進一步將我們團隊的人才與股東的利益結合。最後，請容許我向我們每一位敬業的員工和尊貴的客戶表示感謝。我為我們所取得的成就感到自豪，我對倫諾克斯充滿希望的未來充滿期待，因為我們最美好的時光仍在前方。謝謝。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。薩凡納，讓我們開始問答吧。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Tommy Moll with Stephens.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將由湯米·莫爾和史蒂芬斯提出。

Alok, I wanted to start with a follow-up on the comments you made regarding strengthening the distribution network. You gave us a lot to think about. There are, I think, 9 different points on the slide that you introduced. You clarified it's a multiyear effort, so all very helpful context. And my question there is, if you were to focus our attention on this year and where we should look for early signs of progress where would you focus us, and to what extent can you quantify or frame some of the investments, whether in personnel, technology or elsewhere behind those efforts?

好吧，我想先跟進您關於加強分銷網絡的評論。你給了我們很多思考。我認為您介紹的幻燈片上有 9 個不同的點。您澄清說這是一項多年的努力，因此所有內容都非常有幫助。我的問題是，如果你把我們的注意力集中在今年，我們應該在哪裡尋找早期進展跡象，你會把我們的注意力集中在哪裡，以及你能在多大程度上量化或框架一些投資，無論是在人員、這些努力背後的技術或其他方面？

Tommy, so on the investment side, as you see, our Q1 SG&A is up year-over-year. And so a large part of the investments that we're talking about are already in our numbers, are already in our guidance. Among the -- and this is a classic McKinsey training, right? There are 3 buckets of 3, hence, you get to 9, but that I blame on my McKinsey background or not anything else. The 2 things I would focus on would be both around our customers in terms of fulfillment rate and our net promoter score, which are both indicators -- early indicators of market share gain. And we are seeing solid progress in that.

湯米，所以在投資方面，正如您所看到的，我們第一季的銷售及管理費用同比增長。因此，我們正在談論的大部分投資已經在我們的數字中，已經在我們的指導中。其中——這是麥肯錫的經典培訓，對吧？有 3 個桶，每桶 3 個，因此，你得到 9 個，但這歸咎於我的麥肯錫背景或其他原因。我要關注的兩件事是圍繞我們的客戶的履行率和我們的淨推薦分數，這兩個指標都是市場份額增益的早期指標。我們在這方面看到了堅實的進展。

Third thing we will point out is pricing excellence, which is kind of embedded in there, but do you see that in our numbers anyway. The first 2, we don't talk about publicly, but that's what I monitor internally in significant amount of detail, looking at where is our NPS and where is the fulfillment rate.

我們要指出的第三件事是卓越的定價，這是嵌入其中的，但無論如何你在我們的數據中看到了這一點嗎？前 2 個，我們不會公開談論，但這是我在內部進行大量詳細監控的內容，看看我們的 NPS 和履行率在哪裡。

That's helpful. For a follow-up, I wanted to ask -- this one probably goes to Michael for a couple clarifications on the raised EPS guidance midpoint. Michael, can you just refresh us on the seasonality here? Is 50-50 still the right way to think about it for first half, second half? And then related point, you mentioned a convention regarding the corporate expense and what is versus isn't included there. Any additional detail you could provide, especially if you can just give us a bogey for what you're assuming for the year would be helpful.

這很有幫助。對於後續問題，我想問一下——這個問題可能會請邁克爾就上調的每股收益指導中點進行一些澄清。邁克爾，您能給我們介紹一下這裡的季節性嗎？ 50-50仍然是上半場、下半場的正確思考方式嗎？然後相關的一點是，您提到了有關公司費用的慣例，其中不包括什麼。您可以提供的任何其他詳細信息，尤其是如果您可以為我們今年的假設提供一個柏忌，將會有所幫助。

Sure. Yes. So on the seasonality from the revenue perspective, we've already mentioned that we think from a revenue perspective, Q1 is about 20% of the year. First half is about 50%, second half is about 50%. That's from a revenue perspective. And then on the items that we've now included in corporate, previously, we had some items for asbestos litigation, environmental expense, unique litigation. So these are kind of just small immaterial noisy items that were somewhat recurring, and it was about $0.25 of items last year that we've now moved into our adjusted earnings this year.

當然。是的。因此，關於收入角度的季節性，我們已經提到，我們認為從收入角度來看，第一季約為全年的 20%。上半年約50%，下半年約為50%。這是從收入角度來看的。然後，就我們現在納入公司的項目而言，之前我們有一些石棉訴訟、環境費用、獨特訴訟的項目。因此，這些只是一些小的、非物質性的、有噪音的項目，有些重複出現，去年大約有 0.25 美元的項目，我們現在已經轉移到今年的調整後收益中。

So that would be...

那那就是...

If I could just pick you back on. Sorry, go ahead, Tommy.

如果我能重新接你就好了。抱歉，請繼續，湯米。

Yes. I was going to say, Michael. So that would be a $0.25 unfavorable item from last year to this year. Am I hearing you correctly?

是的。我想說，麥可。因此，從去年到今年，這將是 0.25 美元的不利項目。我沒聽錯嗎？

Yes. If those expenses are generally flat, which we think they are, yes, it's about a [$0.25] headwind.

是的。如果這些費用總體上持平（我們認為是這樣），是的，這大約是 [0.25 美元] 的逆風。

Okay. Got it. Sorry, Alok.

好的。知道了。對不起，阿洛克。

Yes, Tommy, I was saying we did that just to improve the quality of our earnings. I mean, these items are small. They became more recurring, and we think we should only exclude onetime items, extraordinary items. So this was just a bit of a cleanup as Michael came into this role because this was a good opportunity to take these items, which had all become recurring for past many years.

是的，湯米，我是說我們這樣做只是為了提高我們的收入品質。我的意思是，這些物品很小。它們變得更加頻繁，我們認為我們應該只排除一次性的項目、特殊的項目。因此，當邁克爾擔任這個角色時，這只是一個清理工作，因為這是一個獲取這些物品的好機會，這些物品在過去的許多年裡都反覆出現。

Our next question will come from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KeyBanc 的 Jeff Hammond。

Maybe just talk to me about residential. You called out negative mix. So I want to understand what's going on there. What are you seeing on repair, replace because we noted in our checks kind of discernible change more recently. And just as we go into the selling season, given kind of a weaker 4Q, 1Q, kind of what's the lean on kind of industry volumes for the year?

也許只是和我談談住宅。你喊出了負面的混合。所以我想了解那裡發生了什麼事。您在維修、更換方面看到了什麼，因為我們在檢查中註意到最近出現了明顯的變化。正當我們進入銷售季節時，考慮到第四季、第一季的疲軟，今年的產業銷售有何變化？

Sure. If I could start on the mix for the first part. The mix that you're referring is just residential new construction, which was subdued last year is now coming back, and we sat and that's lower margin to us compared to replacement. So that's kind of the mix impact we were calling out that we've noticed. On the repair versus replacement, I think the jury is still out. I mean, I've read your channel checks, we've talked to our dealers, kind of depends on which part of the country and which dealer. We haven't noticed any significant change in part sales versus equipment sales, but we probably wouldn't be the first one to notice that anyway. There will be other distributors who would call that out. But our dealers remain pretty robustly optimistic on overall the life of equipment where repair may not be the most economical way to move forward. So I haven't noticed anything, but we mentioned that as a call-out because that's clearly a possibility as consumer health might get worse.

當然。如果我能開始第一部分的混音就好了。您所指的混合只是住宅新建工程，去年受到抑制，現在又回來了，我們坐了下來，與更換相比，這對我們來說利潤率較低。這就是我們注意到的混合影響。關於修理還是更換，我認為還沒有定論。我的意思是，我已經閱讀了你們的通路檢查，我們已經與我們的經銷商進行了交談，這在某種程度上取決於該國的哪個地區和哪個經銷商。我們沒有註意到零件銷售與設備銷售有任何重大變化，但無論如何我們可能不會是第一個注意到這一點的人。將會有其他經銷商指出這一點。但我們的經銷商對設備的整體使用壽命仍然非常樂觀，其中維修可能不是最經濟的前進方式。所以我沒有註意到任何事情，但我們提到這一點作為呼籲，因為這顯然是一種可能性，因為消費者的健康可能會變得更糟。

Okay. And then just on the refrigerant transition pricing, I think you called out in the presentation greater than 10%. I think you've been saying 10% to 15%. Has anything really changed there other than maybe timing of when you get that? And then just what are you seeing from 410A refrigerant prices that might drive pricing changes this year?

好的。然後就冷媒過渡定價而言，我認為您在演示中提到了超過 10%。我想你一直在說 10% 到 15%。除了你得到它的時間之外，還有什麼真的改變了嗎？那麼您從 410A 冷媒價格中看到什麼可能會推動今年的價格變化？

Sure. So if we -- on the first one, the 454 pricing, nothing has changed. Last year, we may not have been clear enough, but I think we talked a few times that we have said it will be about 15% over 2 years so that increased pricing was for '24 and '25, and we have made that statement in '23. Nothing has really changed because the fourth part of the price increase is already in process. We implemented price increases mid-Q1 and they're going to see that impact. So the remaining is 10%. So I just want to clarify that. Nothing has changed. It was just over 2 years. Now we're talking about 1 year.

當然。因此，如果我們對第一個 454 定價沒有任何改變。去年，我們可能還不夠清楚，但我想我們已經談過幾次了，我們說過兩年內將上漲約 15%，因此 24 和 25 年的定價會提高，我們已經做出了這樣的聲明在' 23。一切都沒有真正改變，因為第四部分的漲價已經在進行中。我們在第一季中期實施了價格上漲，他們將會看到這種影響。所以剩下的就是10%。所以我只想澄清這一點。什麼也沒有變。那時才2年多。現在我們談的是1年。

On 410A pricing, I think the picture is mixed. I think to be fair, the actual 410A pricing ramp-up is less than we expected, and it's almost flat. But we think that's still going to move. And from our perspective, that hasn't changed our price on the end product that we are selling this year.

對於 410A 的定價，我認為情況好壞參半。我認為公平地說，410A 的實際定價漲幅低於我們的預期，幾乎持平。但我們認為這種情況仍然會改變。從我們的角度來看，這並沒有改變我們今年銷售的最終產品的價格。

Next, we have a question from Ryan Merkel with William Blair.

接下來，瑞安·默克爾向威廉·布萊爾提出了一個問題。

Congrats on the quarter. Alok, I wanted to also ask on the A2L. Just the 50% to 60% in '25 from A2L. Just why is that the right number? And then can you clarify, is the price increase, the 10%, is that both resi and commercial? Or is commercial potentially a little bit less?

恭喜本季。好吧，我也想問 A2L 的問題。 25 年的 50% 到 60% 來自 A2L。為什麼這個數字是正確的？然後你能澄清一下，價格上漲，10%，是Resi 的還是商業的？或者商業化的可能性會比較小嗎？

So first, I'll answer on the price increase. We think it's probably going to be both in the same ballpark of 10%, if not higher, both products need significant investments in the factory and some of the sensors in the compression technology. And then why we think it's 50% to 65%. I mean what we're seeing is that you're going to have a bit of a carryover into next year from our 410A systems that are able to be sold next year that were kind of built this year. Then you also have, within the EPA guidance, that you can sell components in the next year. So we think those 2 combined are going to be the 35% to 40% of the market next year and then the balance would be new adoption of the 454B refrigerant product.

首先，我將回答價格上漲的問題。我們認為兩者的成長率可能會相同，即 10%，甚至更高，這兩種產品都需要對工廠和壓縮技術中的一些感測器進行大量投資。那麼為什麼我們認為它是 50% 到 65%。我的意思是，我們所看到的是，我們的 410A 系統將在明年有一些結轉，這些系統可以在明年銷售，而這些系統是今年建造的。然後，根據 EPA 的指導，您也可以在明年出售組件。因此，我們認為這兩者加起來將佔明年市場的 35% 至 40%，其餘部分將是 454B 冷媒產品的新採用。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then I also wanted to ask on resi and just trends. So down 2% for volume in the first quarter, but I realize there's some destock, I think March, but the weather wasn't great. Are you just thinking resi volumes are up low single digits, is that the right cadence the rest of the way?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後我還想問一下有關RESI和趨勢的問題。第一季的銷量下降了 2%，但我意識到庫存有所減少，我認為是 3 月份，但天氣不太好。您是否只是認為 Resi 交易量上升了個位數，剩下的節奏是正確的嗎？

Yes. If you kind of look at our implied guidance, you had the balance of the year would be kind of low single digits, a little stronger on the indirect than the sell-through side, but balance kind of flat to slightly up for the rest of the year.

是的。如果您看我們的隱含指導，您會發現今年的餘額將是較低的個位數，間接比銷售方面強一些，但其餘時間的餘額將持平或略有上升那一年。

And that's mostly for indirect. The comps get much easier starting Q2, and we are seeing the end of destocking.

這主要是間接的。從第二季開始，競爭變得更加容易，我們看到去庫存的結束。

And next, we will hear from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將聽取喬·里奇 (Joe Ritchie) 與高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的對話。

So yes, maybe I'll just kind of start on just the M&A appetite question, just given there are some assets out there that could be coming to market soon just based on what's been publicly disclosed. So talk a little bit about your appetite currently and what you're looking for in potential M&A transactions going forward.

所以，是的，也許我會從併購興趣問題開始，因為根據公開披露的內容，有一些資產可能很快就會上市。因此，請談談您目前的興趣以及您對未來潛在併購交易的期望。

Sure. I mean, we read the same articles that you guys read. I do follow JCI pretty closely, but that's mostly because my good friend, Jim Lucas, is now the Investor Relations leader there, and I like Jim a lot. But if I think from our perspective, nothing has really changed compared to when we talked about it in Q1. And just to kind of reemphasize that. We believe industry consolidation is good, especially as regulatory changes accelerate, you need more scale to be successful.

當然。我的意思是，我們讀的文章和你們讀的文章相同。我確實非常密切地關注 JCI，但這主要是因為我的好朋友吉姆·盧卡斯 (Jim Lucas) 現在是那裡的投資者關係負責人，而且我非常喜歡吉姆。但如果我從我們的角度來看，與我們在第一季討論時相比，沒有什麼真正改變。只是為了再次強調這一點。我們認為產業整合是好事，特別是隨著監管變化的加速，你需要更大的規模才能成功。

From our perspective, we have been public in the past about the interest for this asset that is rumored to be on sale and that hasn't changed either. What we are very focused on is making sure re-execute appropriately, we have a very strong path ahead of us. Our 3-year plan is going to create significant value and we have kind of talked about our long-term targets. There's so much opportunity for us to become a better distributor, improve our commercial volume through the new factory, working through pricing excellence on an ongoing basis and gain share as we successfully execute through the refrigerant changes. And we have a huge big pipeline of bolt-on opportunities as well. So while we can't talk about any specific process, we have sufficient scale to compete and we feel we are in a very good position and evaluate the opportunity that they come by.

從我們的角度來看，我們過去曾公開過對傳聞中即將出售的這項資產的興趣，這一點也沒有改變。我們非常關注的是確保適當地重新執行，我們前面有一條非常強大的道路。我們的三年計劃將創造巨大的價值，我們已經談到了我們的長期目標。我們有很多機會成為更好的經銷商，透過新工廠提高我們的商業量，持續實現卓越定價，並在我們成功執行冷媒變革時獲得份額。我們還有大量的補充機會。因此，雖然我們不能談論任何具體流程，但我們有足夠的規模來競爭，我們覺得我們處於非常有利的位置，可以評估他們所帶來的機會。

That's super helpful, Alok. My follow-up question maybe for Michael, just going back to that seasonality comment that you made. Just curious as you kind of think of just the cadence for 2Q specifically. You guys -- it seems like destocking is coming to an end. Shouldn't the seasonality be slightly better this year because you're kind of lapping destocking comps. Just any commentary around that would be helpful.

這非常有幫助，阿洛克。我的後續問題可能是針對邁克爾的，回到您所做的季節性評論。只是好奇，因為您專門想到了 2Q 的節奏。你們——去庫存似乎即將結束。今年的季節性不是應該稍微好一點嗎，因為你正在減少庫存。只要對此有任何評論都會有所幫助。

Yes. I think there's still some uncertainty, though in the end markets on the sell-through. I think we're trying to watch weather within Q2, it's cold here in Dallas. We'll see where it goes for the rest of the quarter. So I think there's some concerns on where weather could go. But I think the 50% of the sales in the first half still seems appropriate.

是的。我認為，儘管終端市場的銷售情況仍存在一些不確定性。我想我們正在嘗試觀察第二季的天氣，達拉斯這裡很冷。我們將看看本季剩餘時間的情況。所以我認為人們對天氣的走向有些擔憂。但我認為上半年銷售額的50%似乎還是適合的。

Yes. And we don't want to call out whether for revenue upside or downside. I'm new to the industry. And whenever I worry about whether, business leaders who have been here for a longer term, say, "hey, just wait until next week." and your concerns might go away. So still early in the quarter, May and June make up a significantly bigger portion of our sales than April does.

是的。我們不想指出收入是上升還是下降。我是這個行業的新手。每當我擔心長期任職的商界領袖是否會說：“嘿，等到下週吧。”你的擔憂可能會消失。因此，在本季度初期，五月和六月在我們銷售額中所佔的比例比四月要大得多。

Our next question will come from Damian Karas with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的達米安卡拉斯。

Thanks for all the detail thus far. I just have to ask -- so we've been hearing about the end of this destocking for a few quarters now. What's driving your confidence that this is the last time we're going to hear about this as a headwind in the quarter?

感謝迄今為止的所有細節。我只想問一下——幾個季度以來我們一直聽說庫存削減計劃已經結束。是什麼讓您相信這是我們最後一次聽到有關本季不利因素的消息？

Well, we've been wrong before, so we've got to keep that in mind as I answer the question. We talked about earlier, it ending by Q4. And then in Q4, we got a sense and we signaled that is likely going to continue in Q1. As we look at leading indicators, so things such as coils, we make universal coils and when we sell those, those are typically the canary in the coal mine in terms of first to go down and first to go up.

好吧，我們以前就錯了，所以在我回答這個問題時我們必須牢記這一點。我們之前談過，它在第四季結束。然後在第四季度，我們有了預感，並表示這種情況可能會在第一季繼續下去。當我們專注於領先指標時，例如線圈，我們生產通用線圈，當我們出售這些線圈時，這些線圈通常是煤礦中的金絲雀，首先下跌，然後上漲。

So when I look at those product lines that went down first in sales, we sell them coming back up, and we had a pretty good march on those product lines and in addition conversations with our distributors. So those would be the 2 data points. But listen, we were wrong before. So maybe would be wrong again. But I think this time, we have much more data that supports it.

因此，當我看到那些銷量首先下降的產品線時，我們會在銷售回來後將其出售，並且我們在這些產品線上取得了相當好的進展，此外還與我們的分銷商進行了對話。所以這就是兩個數據點。但聽著，我們之前錯了。所以也許又會錯了。但我認為這一次，我們有更多的數據來支持它。

And then you guys have talked a little bit about stable, still solid orders in BCS. Could you maybe just give us a sense for what you're seeing different end markets, maybe national account versus emergency replacement, how that's kind of unpacked and how you're thinking about kind of book-to-bill going forward.

然後你們談到了 BCS 中穩定、仍然可靠的訂單。您能否讓我們了解一下您所看到的不同終端市場，也許是國民帳戶與緊急更換，這是如何展開的，以及您如何考慮未來的訂單到帳單方式。

Sure. If you think about our presence, remember, we don't do things like office buildings and large multistory apartment complexes. So from that perspective, our exposure to those areas, which we see were slowing last year and continue to be slow is limited, we are more in single-story building and in national accounts, whether I'd be large big boxes of any type and others. The replacement demand is what's kind of exciting, and that's what we are seeing really good momentum on as a lot of the supply constraints are behind us.

當然。如果您想到我們的存在，請記住，我們不做辦公大樓和大型多層公寓大樓之類的事情。因此，從這個角度來看，我們對這些領域的敞口（去年我們看到這些領域正在放緩並且繼續緩慢）是有限的，我們更專注於單層建築和國民帳戶，無論我是任何類型的大盒子和別的。替換需求是令人興奮的，這就是我們看到的真正良好的勢頭，因為許多供應限制已經過去。

Lead times are normalizing across the industry, and folks are more willing to put in the investments, especially given particularly the energy and the carbon savings they are going to get out of the new equipment.

整個產業的交貨時間正在正常化，人們更願意投入投資，特別是考慮到他們將從新設備中獲得的能源和碳節約。

On emergency replacement, our share has dropped so low back. The market trends really don't matter to us. I mean it's all about share gain, and we are making good progress in getting back into our traditional dealers, our traditional accounts and we'll make a lot more progress in the second half of the year when our second factory gets up and running. So that's kind of behind what we talked about in terms of overall trend. Replacement, which is a vast majority of our sales, continues to be strong, and that's driving strong order rates.

在緊急更換方面，我們的份額已跌至如此低的水平。市場趨勢對我們來說並不重要。我的意思是，這一切都與份額收益有關，我們在重返傳統經銷商、傳統客戶方面取得了良好進展，下半年當我們的第二家工廠建成並運營時，我們將取得更多進展。這就是我們所討論的整體趨勢背後的原因。替換產品占我們銷售額的絕大部分，並且繼續保持強勁勢頭，這推動了強勁的訂單率。

And our next question will come from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將由諾亞·凱和奧本海默提出。

Just wanted to unpack a little bit more the price mix outlook for the balance of the year across segments like mathematically implied more of a dollar benefit in the resi segments. It sounds like that is primarily just the price increases, less so than mix, but would appreciate color on that as well as kind of color on the commercial side, what drives price mix for the balance of the year.

只是想進一步了解今年剩餘時間各細分市場的價格組合前景，例如從數學上隱含更多的美元收益在 Resi 細分市場。聽起來這主要只是價格上漲，比混合價格上漲要少，但我會欣賞這種顏色以及商業方面的顏色，這推動了今年剩餘時間的價格組合。

Yes. So within the quarter, we had pretty good price yield of 3%, but that was only a partial yield for some of the price increases that we announced in February and into March. So we're going to see a little bit more carryover and pick up on the pricing side. I also don't expect the new construction mix to continue like it did in Q1. So we think that, that will moderate later in the year. And then we'll also start to see some of the carryover benefit from the minimum SEER efficiency products as we get to the second half of this year, maybe late in the year, a very minor favorable mix for the 454B products not really much within the guide. But overall, it's just continued pricing within HCS.

是的。因此，在本季度內，我們的價格收益率相當不錯，為 3%，但這只是我們在 2 月和 3 月宣布的部分漲價的部分收益率。因此，我們將看到更多的結轉和定價方面的回升。我也不認為新的建築組合會像第一季一樣繼續下去。所以我們認為，這種情況將在今年稍後有所緩解。然後，當我們進入今年下半年（也許是今年稍後）時，我們也將開始看到最低SEER 效率產品的一些結轉效益，對454B 產品來說，這是一個非常小的有利組合，但實際上並沒有太多好處。但總體而言，這只是 HCS 內的持續定價。

On the BCS guide, it's a similar story where we're lapping some really big price increases that we did last year. So you see a lot more of that in the first quarter that will then moderate in later quarters this year as we get some of the price increases that we announced in that segment as well.

在 BCS 指南中，情況與去年類似，我們正在經歷一些非常大的價格上漲。因此，您會在第一季看到更多這樣的情況，然後在今年稍後的季度中會有所放緩，因為我們也宣布了該細分市場的一些價格上漲。

And then I really appreciate you guys taking a view on what the mix will look like on the refrigerant side next year. Just is it possible to quantify how much of a working capital headwind that is for this year because you're obviously going to have to build that inventory certainly for the direct channel before the cutoff date.

然後，我真的很感謝你們對明年冷媒方面的混合情況提出看法。是否有可能量化今年的營運資金逆風有多大，因為您顯然必須在截止日期之前為直接管道建立庫存。

Yes. There's 2 things that we're focused on in working capital this year. It's inventory build. The first is some additional raw materials to help transition to the new building climate solutions factory in Mexico. So that's a piece of it. But then the other side of it is going to be to do a prebuild for some R-410A systems on the residential side depending on end market demand and how that's going to carry into next year. And then also on the BCS segment is that we can continue to build 410A unitary rooftops through the end of this year, and then we have 3 years to sell that through. So we want to make sure we have sufficient 410A demand to cover a few years of -- or continued volume for the next year or so on the BCS product. So that all adds up to about $50 million of inventory that we're going to have to add this year.

是的。今年我們在營運資金方面重點關注兩件事。這是庫存建設。首先是一些額外的原料，以幫助過渡到墨西哥的新建築氣候解決方案工廠。這就是其中的一部分。但另一方面，將根據終端市場需求以及明年的情況，對住宅方面的一些 R-410A 系統進行預先建造。在 BCS 領域，我們可以在今年年底之前繼續建造 410A 單一屋頂，然後我們有 3 年的時間來銷售它。因此，我們希望確保我們有足夠的 410A 需求來滿足 BCS 產品幾年或明年左右的持續銷售。因此，所有這些加起來，我們今年必須增加約 5000 萬美元的庫存。

Our next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Brett Linzey。

I wanted to come back to the Building segment and really thinking about a way to dimension the new commercial capacity coming online, how does that ramp up in terms of revenue or units produced? And how should the factory utilization levels phase through the second half and then into next year?

我想回到建築領域，真正考慮一種方法來衡量即將上線的新商業產能，以及它如何在收入或生產單位方面增加？工廠的利用率水準應該如何逐步過渡到下半年和明年？

From a units produced, we have internal targets, but we haven't shared that externally. So I don't want to go there. I mean, over the long term, we did talk about that we got enough square footage to double the capacity. We think that happens over 5 years or more. So think of maybe perhaps at max 20% capacity slowly ramped up one line at a time. So I think that's kind of one way to think about it. But clearly, it will be prudent. We'll look at market conditions. And in some cases, we can obviously move in balance production between the existing factory and the new factory. So that's going to be one way to look at it. But we haven't put in machines in the ground to double the full capacity. We've got enough space to do that, but we'll put those investments as the demand materializes.

從生產的單位來看，我們有內部目標，但我們尚未與外部分享。所以我不想去那裡。我的意思是，從長遠來看，我們確實討論過我們有足夠的面積來使容量增加一倍。我們認為這種情況會在 5 年或更長時間內發生。因此，想想也許最多 20% 的容量會一次一條線緩慢增加。所以我認為這是思考這個問題的一種方式。但顯然，這將是謹慎的。我們將看看市場狀況。在某些情況下，我們顯然可以在現有工廠和新工廠之間平衡生產。所以這將是看待它的一種方式。但我們還沒有在地下安裝機器來使總產能翻倍。我們有足夠的空間來做到這一點，但我們將在需求實現時進行這些投資。

Okay. Got it. Makes sense. And then just wanted to come back to the forecast on the composition of the new refrigerant products next year. I guess as the old refrigerant supply is reduced, is it reasonable to think the pricing on the legacy units also needs to step up again next year as you're dealing with less supply?

好的。知道了。說得通。然後我想回到明年新冷媒產品成分的預測。我想隨著舊冷媒供應的減少，由於供應量減少，認為明年舊冷媒的定價也需要再次上漲是否合理？

Yes. As we always do, we'll come out with a new price increase next year on the 410A system and depending where the cost of that gas goes up, which we expect to go up significantly. It could also have a pretty large increase similar to the 454B product. But we're monitoring that, and there will be another price increase on that next year for the 35% of the demand.

是的。正如我們一貫所做的那樣，明年我們將根據天然氣成本的上漲情況對 410A 系統進行新的提價，我們預計該價格將大幅上漲。與 454B 產品類似，它也可能有相當大的成長。但我們正在監控這種情況，明年 35% 的需求將會再次漲價。

And also keep in mind there will be manufacturing inefficiencies associated with manufacturing the older 410A units because the volume is going to go down and the factory has got to be more complex at higher cost for the 410A that we expect.

還要記住，製造舊 410A 裝置會導致製造效率低下，因為產量將會下降，而且工廠必須變得更加複雜，而我們預期 410A 的成本也會更高。

Next question will come from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

下一個問題將由巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾提出。

And thanks for the effort to improve earnings quality. I think most companies are hellbent ongoing in the other direction. Maybe my first question would be around -- the commentary around the sort of second quarter and the first half and so forth. So you've got about $1.5 billion sales, I suppose, or thereabout starting for Q2 based on that 50-50 first half split. When we're thinking about sort of margin profile. Classically, you've had sort of 35%, 40% sequential operating leverage in the second quarter just with the fixed cost absorption and so forth. I just wondered if that figure would be any different this year, whether because of the Mexico plant ramp-up or the phasing of, say, those A2L headwinds of 5 million to 10 million that you call out? Maybe just any sort of color around how those items play out from here and the sort of second quarter sequential leverage.

感謝您為提高獲利品質所做的努力。我認為大多數公司都一意孤行地朝另一個方向發展。也許我的第一個問題是圍繞著第二季和上半場等的評論。因此，我認為，根據上半年 50-50 的比例，從第二季開始，您的銷售額約為 15 億美元。當我們考慮某種利潤狀況時。傳統上，第二季的連續營運槓桿約為 35%、40%，僅考慮固定成本吸收等。我只是想知道今年這個數字是否會有所不同，無論是因為墨西哥工廠的產能擴張還是因為您所說的 500 萬至 1000 萬的 A2L 逆風的分階段？也許只是圍繞這些項目如何從這裡發揮作用以及第二季度連續槓桿的任何形式。

Yes, there will be some additional investments they're going to start to make in the second quarter that weren't fully impacted in the first quarter predominantly launching the new commercial factory as well as starting to transition to the new 454B product in HCS. Additionally, we had a bit of a onetime benefit within Q1 for margins for warranty adjustments, so that will also kind of not repeat in the next year or the next quarter. But overall, there will be some cost increases coming into the second and third quarters that weren't within the first quarter.

是的，他們將在第二季開始進行一些額外投資，這些投資在第一季並未完全受到影響，主要是推出新的商業工廠以及開始在 HCS 中過渡到新的 454B 產品。此外，我們在第一季的保固調整利潤方面獲得了一些一次性的好處，因此在明年或下一個季度也不會重複這種情況。但總體而言，第二季和第三季將會出現一些第一季沒有的成本增加。

Got it. Okay. So still sort of decent leverage, but maybe with some offsets this year specifically.

知道了。好的。因此，槓桿率仍然不錯，但今年可能會有一些抵消。

Correct. Yes, some ramp-up costs that we're going to need to transition to get the product ready.

正確的。是的，為了讓產品做好準備，我們需要過渡一些增加成本。

And then my second question, circling back to the BCS division. Certainly, the tone, I think, from Alok seems a little bit more cautious on that new construction aspect and project delays, and we see that more broadly in things like the ABI readings. Maybe to sort of -- if you could put a finer point, Alok, the project delays aspect, is that just an expectation of what could happen later in the year? Maybe any updated thoughts on the education vertical? Is that asset tailwind sort of starts to expire. And I guess the thrust of the question is really, you had 21% revenue growth in that BCS segment in the first quarter, the year is up 10%, is an implied decline at some point just pure conservatism? Or is there anything we're really seeing on those project delays or education vertical or something like that?

然後是我的第二個問題，回到 BCS 部門。當然，我認為 Alok 的語氣在新建設方面和專案延誤方面似乎更加謹慎，我們在 ABI 讀數等方面更廣泛地看到了這一點。也許是這樣——阿洛克，如果你能說得更清楚一點，專案延遲方面，這只是對今年晚些時候可能發生的事情的預期嗎？也許對教育垂直領域有什麼最新的想法？這種資產順風是否開始到期了？我想問題的主旨實際上是，第一季 BCS 細分市場的收入成長了 21%，今年成長了 10%，在某個時候隱含的下降是否只是純粹的保守主義？或者我們真的在這些項目延遲或教育垂直或類似的事情上看到了什麼？

Sure. I guess, Julian, the 2 biggest factors on that is we like to be conservative, and second we had fairly easy comps in Q1 compared to where we were last year. On the demand side, I'll start by saying we remain manufacturing or production capacity constrained, not demand constrained. So keep that in mind as I answer all the other different points in here. The new construction and the project push to the right is actually happening right now that only impacts 15% to 20% of our sales that was about -- 75%, 80% of that is, our sales are all replacement, but we needed to call that out just because it does impact a portion of our sales. But today, it's not an issue because again, being supply constrained versus demand constraint continues to hold for us. Education vertical, yes, it had some benefits last year, may have left this year, but it's really not a material mover for us nor was it last year. So it really doesn't impact us.

當然。我想，朱利安，其中兩個最大的因素是我們喜歡保守，其次與去年相比，我們在第一季的比賽相當容易。在需求方面，我首先要說的是，我們的製造或生產能力仍然受到限制，而不是需求受到限制。因此，當我在這裡回答所有其他不同觀點時，請記住這一點。新的建設和向右推進的項目實際上正在發生，只影響我們銷售額的15% 到20%，大約是——75%、80%，也就是說，我們的銷售額都是替代品，但我們需要之所以指出這一點，是因為它確實影響了我們的部分銷售額。但今天，這不再是一個問題，因為供應受限與需求受限對我們來說仍然存在。教育垂直領域，是的，去年它有一些好處，今年可能已經消失了，但它對我們來說確實不是物質推動者，去年也不是。所以這確實不會影響我們。

The biggest driver of optimism there is the age of units, the units on the rooftop, whether it's a big box and others, they are way beyond the useful life. Many of them are like 18 years where the useful life is closer to 14 to 16. That's what drives our optimism about order rates and things going forward. But the delta that you officially asked for at the beginning is easier comps and some conservatism built in because no factory startup goes perfectly, Julian. As you know, factory startups always have some issues here or there. So we just didn't want to get ahead of ourselves.

樂觀的最大推動力是單位的年齡，屋頂上的單位，無論是大盒子還是其他單位，它們都遠遠超出了使用壽命。其中許多的使用壽命約為 18 年，其中使用壽命更接近 14 到 16 年。但你一開始正式要求的增量是更容易的補償和一些內建的保守主義，因為沒有工廠啟動是完美的，朱利安。如您所知，工廠新創企業總是會遇到一些問題。所以我們只是不想超越自己。

Our next question will come from Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

First question is just related to pricing strategy, and I think both on HCS and BCS, you had sort of engaged with consultants and have implemented pricing changes as a result. The question is just related to what inning you're in, in that, the degree to which that's complete, the degree to which we see it in the P&L. And as a result, was it a matter of you were pricing below market on a net pricing side of things and maybe you're above market? Just overall, kind of the outcome of those efforts, sort of where you are pricing relative to what you see pricing in the market being?

第一個問題與定價策略有關，我認為在 HCS 和 BCS 上，你們都與顧問進行了接觸，並因此實施了定價變更。問題只與你所處的局有關，即該局的完成程度，以及我們在損益表中看到的程度。結果是，你的淨定價方面的定價低於市場，也許你的定價高於市場？總的來說，這些努力的結果是什麼，你的定價相對於你所看到的市場定價是多少？

If you just click it, I would tell you in the first inning, but since it's baseball, I have to say we are probably the third or fourth inning of that right now. Where we are is, yes, we were below market price in many of our key accounts where we have signed contracts after the tornado and pre-COVID and we did not have inflation clauses in that. So there was definitely a large portion of our sales where we were and in some cases, still below market their process to get up to the market level. So I think that's a big part of that.

如果你點擊它，我會在第一局告訴你，但由於這是棒球，我不得不說我們現在可能是第三局或第四局。是的，我們的許多主要客戶的價格都低於市場價格，我們在龍捲風之後和新冠疫情之前簽署的合約中沒有通貨膨脹條款。因此，我們的銷售額肯定有很大一部分是在我們達到市場水平的過程中，在某些情況下仍然低於市場水平。所以我認為這是其中很重要的一部分。

There is a second part of that, which is around giving the local leaders autonomy to an extent to get pricing adjusted, we used to do national pricing and then we realized there is no such thing as national pricing. Pricing in South is very different than pricing in the North. So we will be able to capture greater pricing excellence just by having more localized pricing and there's going to be upside on that working through that.

還有第二部分，就是給予地方領導人一定程度的自主權來調整定價，我們曾經進行全國定價，然後我們意識到不存在全國定價之類的東西。南方的定價與北方的定價有很大不同。因此，我們將能夠透過更本地化的定價來獲得更好的定價優勢，並且透過這個過程將會有好處。

The third aspect of pricing is simply around us continuing to capture pricing ahead of inflation because people think inflation has gone away, and it's not. So as we do price increases and the fact that we lost margin points during the COVID transition and during the tornado, we need to just work with all our channel partners and customers and make sure we get price ahead of inflation, not behind inflation because inflation continues to impact us, whether it's SG&A or materials or labor, all of that impacts SG&A. So those are the 3 aspects, I would say we are less than halfway complete, but pleased with progress so far, and especially pleased with some of the price actions we took on key accounts and gotten closer to market, but still below market in some cases.

定價的第三個方面是我們繼續在通貨膨脹之前捕獲定價，因為人們認為通貨膨脹已經消失，但事實並非如此。因此，當我們進行價格上漲時，事實上我們在新冠疫情過渡期間和龍捲風期間失去了利潤點，我們需要與所有通路合作夥伴和客戶合作，確保我們的價格領先於通貨膨脹，而不是落後於通貨膨脹，因為通貨膨脹持續影響我們，無論是 SG&A、材料或勞動力，所有這些都會影響 SG&A。所以這就是三個方面，我想說我們還不到完成的一半，但對迄今為止的進展感到滿意，特別是對我們對關鍵客戶採取的一些價格行動感到高興，並接近市場，但在某些方面仍然低於市場案例。

Got it. And then also just wanted to ask on leverage and when you think about the M&A opportunity set out there, you talked about a long-term target leverage range in the 1x to 1.5x. But if the right opportunity were to present itself, how high are you comfortable taking leverage to pursue that type of opportunity?

知道了。然後也只是想問一下槓桿問題，當您考慮那裡提出的併購機會時，您談到了 1 倍至 1.5 倍的長期目標槓桿範圍。但如果合適的機會出現，您願意利用多大的槓桿來追求這種機會？

If the right opportunity materialize, we'd go up kind of 3%, maybe a little over 3% near term and then quickly want to get back to that 1 to 1.5x after that initial increase to above 3%. But the key is maintaining investment grade ratings. That's the key.

如果合適的機會出現，我們會上漲 3%，短期內可能會略高於 3%，然後在最初上漲至 3% 以上後，很快希望回到 1 到 1.5 倍。但關鍵是維持投資等級。這就是關鍵。

Our next question will come from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)。

And I appreciate Alok that you're not going to use any cricket analogies because I would have no idea what you're talking about. Yes, on the manufacturing line conversion, just give us a sense, is this the clarify, is that the $5 million to $10 million that is in the assumption? And is this in the Mexico facility? And just give us a sense of how disruptive is this to the actual line to change over to the new refrigerants? Are you adding some new components? Is there new testing? Is it a higher pressurization, just what -- from a technology standpoint, logistics standpoint, how disruptive might that be?

我很欣賞阿洛克，你不會用任何板球類比，因為我不知道你在說什麼。是的，在生產線轉換方面，請給我們一個感覺，這是澄清嗎？這是在墨西哥工廠嗎？讓我們了解一下這對更換新冷媒的實際生產線有多大破壞？您要新增一些新組件嗎？有新的測試嗎？是否是更高的壓力，從技術的角度、物流的角度來看，這會帶來多大的破壞性？

Sure. So the two inefficiencies we called out. One is the Saltillo Mexico start-up inefficiencies. And then we called out $5 million to $10 million of additional inefficiencies on residential for transitioning from 410A to 454B. The change is pretty big. We have to make sure that we are handling appropriately the new refrigerant, which is mildly flammable. So it has a different classification when it comes to DOT regulations, so it requires different piping, different storage, different testing, different test chambers. Though the compressors are new, the size of the product might change in some cases. So it's a fairly big change, but we're pretty used to it. We are very ready. This is not starting now.

當然。所以我們指出了兩個低效率的問題。一是墨西哥薩爾蒂約新創企業效率低。然後，我們要求住宅從 410A 過渡到 454B 時額外投入 500 萬至 1000 萬美元的低效率費用。變化還是蠻大的。我們必須確保正確處理具有輕度易燃性的新冷媒。因此，當涉及DOT法規時，它有不同的分類，因此需要不同的管道、不同的儲存、不同的測試、不同的測試室。儘管壓縮機是新的，但在某些情況下產品的尺寸可能會改變。所以這是一個相當大的變化，但我們已經習慣了。我們已經準備好了。這不是現在開始的。

A lot of these changes started last year. So for example, the new refrigerants line already been in start and the new storage tanks already in the facility. We're already doing test runs. If we needed to make products today, we would. So the inefficiency costs that we called out would simply be lines shutting down for a few weeks while we make all the changes, test the product and then restart it. That's kind of the core source of inefficiencies. Most of the investments are already kind of on the floor now.

其中許多變化是從去年開始的。例如，新的冷媒生產線已經啟動，新的儲槽已經在設施中。我們已經在進行測試運行。如果我們今天需要生產產品，我們就會這麼做。因此，我們所說的低效率成本只是在我們進行所有更改、測試產品然後重新啟動時將生產線關閉幾週。這是效率低下的核心根源。大部分投資現在已經到位。

That's real helpful. And then the follow-up question for Michael, and I'll also add my shout out for the quality of earnings. I mean, we had to spend some time this morning to doublecheck that we weren't missing something. There were no eliminations, and that was the conclusion. I said, "Oh my gosh, this is as close to gap as any company we follow." So thank you.

這真的很有幫助。然後是邁克爾的後續問題，我還將對收入品質表示讚賞。我的意思是，今天早上我們必須花一些時間來仔細檢查我們沒有遺漏什麼。沒有淘汰，這就是結論。我說：“天哪，這是我們跟踪的任何一家公司中最接近差距的。”所以謝謝。

Chelsey and I were listening to you, Deane, when you told us that at your conference, and we took that as a challenge. So it did start at your conference when you mentioned that to Chelsey and I.

迪恩，當你在會議上告訴我們這一點時，切爾西和我正在聽你講話，我們將此視為一個挑戰。所以，當你向切爾西和我提到這一點時，它確實是在你的會議上開始的。

All right. I appreciate that. And then so that's -- with all this buildup, I've got more of a mundane question on free cash flow. We know first quarter is typically a use, but it was less of a use. What are the dynamics there? And you said you've got some additional inventory build coming, where does buffer inventory as we distance ourselves from all the supply chain issues? Have you read yourself a buffer inventory entirely? Is that still winding down, but some color there would be helpful.

好的。我很感激。然後，隨著所有這些積累，我對自由現金流有了更多的普通問題。我們知道第一季通常是一種利用，但用途較少。那裡有什麼動態？您說您即將建立一些額外的庫存，當我們遠離所有供應鏈問題時，緩衝庫存在哪裡？您讀過一份完整的緩衝清單嗎？是不是還在逐漸結束，但那裡的一些顏色會有幫助。

Yes. On the raw material side, yes, our inventories are still higher than we like. They are drifting down better as supply chains are healing. So they are coming down, but we're going to have to grow them a bit for this Building Climate Solutions transition to ramp up that new factory. But overall raw inventory is getting better. But yes, we will -- we're going to start to grow inventory later this year for the new 410A product and we're going to start to rebuild and grow some of that in the second half of this year. And then another element that we have within the free cash flow guide is that the CapEx is also going to be a little bit higher in the second half of this year than our normal guide. Normally, we have about $110 million of CapEx. It's about $175 million. You can see that there's going to be more in the second half to complete the ramp-up of the factory and get our transition to the new 454B product ready to go.

是的。在原材料方面，是的，我們的庫存仍然高於我們的預期。隨著供應鏈的恢復，它們正在逐漸下降。因此，它們正在下降，但我們必須在建築氣候解決方案過渡中增加一些，以擴大新工廠的規模。但整體原料庫存正在好轉。但是，是的，我們會——我們將在今年稍後開始增加新 410A 產品的庫存，並且我們將在今年下半年開始重建和增加其中的一些庫存。我們自由現金流指南中的另一個要素是，今年下半年的資本支出也將比我們的正常指南略高一些。通常，我們的資本支出約為 1.1 億美元。大約是1.75億美元。您可以看到，下半年將有更多工作來完成工廠的產能提升，並為我們向新 454B 產品的過渡做好準備。

Our next question will come from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

I guess first thing is just on the commercial margins, obviously, really, really strong again this quarter. Thinking through all the puts and takes through the rest of the year and how the comp gets a lot harder through from 2Q to 4Q, I guess how much conviction do you guys have that you can continue to expand margins year-on-year through the rest of the year?

我想首先是商業利潤，顯然本季再次非常非常強勁。考慮到今年剩餘時間裡的所有看跌期權和看漲期權，以及從第二季度到第四季度，公司的業績如何變得更加困難，我猜你們有多少信心相信，通過今年剩下的時間？

Yes. So we continue to do pricing excellence. And we've announced up to 8% price increase in Q1. So we're going to continue to drive price increase, even though it's going to lap some of the comps, which are going to be a little more challenging. Right now, our guide is volumes kind of flattish to up low single digits in the balance of the year. That normally comes with 30% incremental. So that should help drive our return on sales, operating profit margins up higher. But then working against that as a little bit of the headwinds that we have to ramp that new factory up. So absent of the factory ramp, we still see margins modestly moving up.

是的。因此，我們繼續追求卓越的定價。我們也宣布第一季的價格上漲高達 8%。因此，我們將繼續推動價格上漲，儘管它將超越一些比較，這將更具挑戰性。目前，我們的指引是今年餘下的交易量持平甚至出現低個位數成長。通常會增加 30%。因此，這應該有助於提高我們的銷售回報率和營業利潤率。但隨後我們必須克服這一點阻力來擴大新工廠的規模。因此，在沒有工廠產能擴張的情況下，我們仍然看到利潤率小幅上升。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then we've seen copper and aluminum costs rising recently. Can you just refresh us on when that could potentially impact your P&L? Would that be more of like a 2025 concern at this point or something to focus on.

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後我們最近看到銅和鋁的成本上漲。您能給我們介紹一下什麼時候這可能會影響您的損益嗎？這更像是 2025 年的問題，還是值得關注的事情？

Yes. So we see steel increases that are also starting to come up. That's more immediate. That kind of is on a quarterly lag. The copper and aluminum goes through a hedging process. It's kind of an 18-month blended hedging process. So we'll start to see some of that this year, but it will come into next year as well. We'll continue to monitor that. If it stays elevated, we'll have to see what type of pricing actions later this year we need to do. But definitely, that would be reflective in the new 454B product, if it continues on pricing and the (inaudible) pricing into next year.

是的。因此，我們看到鋼鐵產量也開始成長。這樣比較直接。這種情況存在季度滯後。銅和鋁經歷了避險過程。這是一個為期 18 個月的混合對沖過程。因此，我們今年將開始看到其中的一些，但明年也會出現。我們將繼續關注這一情況。如果它保持在高位，我們將不得不看看今年稍後我們需要採取什麼類型的定價行動。但毫無疑問，如果新的 454B 產品繼續定價並且（聽不清楚）定價到明年，這將反映在新的 454B 產品中。

And our next question will come from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Can you just help me reconcile some of the price and mix dynamics. I mean you guys had put through, I believe, Allied was in January 1 and then the rest of the business maybe in early February. I think they were upwards of like 10% price increases. Price was up 3% in the quarter. So maybe just help me reconcile that? And then what basically gets that to accelerate through the rest of the year. I mean, your price mix was basically 1% for the quarter with negative mix. So maybe just help me reconcile those data points with kind of the mid-single-digit guidance?

您能幫我協調一些價格和組合動態嗎？我的意思是，我相信你們已經在 1 月 1 日完成了 Allied，然後其餘的業務可能在 2 月初完成。我認為價格上漲了 10% 以上。本季價格上漲 3%。那也許只是幫我協調一下？然後是什麼基本上讓這種情況在今年剩下的時間裡加速。我的意思是，該季度的價格組合基本上為 1%，但組合為負值。那麼也許只是幫我將這些數據點與中個位數的指導進行協調？

Specifically speak to the pricing. So within the quarter, we only had a partial quarter on the price increase. So we announced on the Lennox brand starting February. So that didn't even fully get all the way through February, seeing about a month on the Lennox side. So that should continue to increase as we go throughout the year on just the normal flow activity on Lennox. And then we also had price increases on some of our large PE and builder contracts that also was -- some of those were also a partial quarter. So you'll start to see that also expand later in the year.

具體說說定價。因此，在本季度內，我們只有部分季度的價格上漲。因此，我們從二月開始宣布推出 Lennox 品牌。所以這甚至沒有完全持續到二月，倫諾克斯這邊大約有一個月的時間。因此，隨著我們全年倫諾克斯的正常流量活動，這一數字應該會繼續增加。然後我們的一些大型私募股權和建築商合約的價格也上漲了——其中一些也是部分季度的。因此，您將在今年稍後開始看到這種情況也在擴大。

On the mix side, we don't think that the new construction mix is going to continue, so that should help going forward. But we're watching it to see if it does. But right now, we're assuming that, that mix basically slows down on the RNC side.

在混合方面，我們認為新的建築組合不會繼續下去，因此這應該有助於向前發展。但我們正在觀察它是否確實如此。但現在，我們假設共和黨全國委員會方面的混合速度基本上放緩。

So that mix number that you put in there, the mix for sales is a mix driven by type of business like new construction versus like replace. That's what that negative 2% mix reflects?

因此，您輸入的混合數字，銷售組合是由業務類型驅動的組合，例如新建與替換。這就是 2% 的負值組合所反映的內容嗎？

Within the quarter, correct, yes.

在本季度內，正確，是的。

I didn't -- have you guys always accounted for it that way? I thought that was more about like the SEER level of the product as opposed to the type of customer you're selling to?

我沒有──你們一直都是這樣解釋的嗎？我認為這更多的是產品的 SEER 級別，而不是你要銷售的客戶類型？

Well, if you think within that customer, it is a SEER level of the product that normally do entry-level type products. So it's kind of a mix of both.

好吧，如果你考慮那個客戶，它是 SEER 等級的產品，通常是入門級類型的產品。所以它是兩者的混合體。

Steve, we wanted to do it the same way. Last year, we called out the SEER-1 because that was the largest driver as we're going from older SEER standards to the newer one. But for us, mix has always been product types and RMC products are part of that mix change.

史蒂夫，我們想以同樣的方式做到這一點。去年，我們提出了 SEER-1，因為這是我們從舊的 SEER 標準轉向新標準的最大推動力。但對我們來說，組合一直是產品類型，而 RMC 產品是組合變化的一部分。

Right. I guess, but that's not really going to change, I guess, over the next several quarters, right? Mix should remain relatively new construction focused? Or does that mix change over the next several quarters?

正確的。我想，但我想，在接下來的幾個季度裡，這種情況不會真正改變，對吧？組合應該保持相對較新的建築重點嗎？或者這種組合在接下來的幾季會改變嗎？

Well, as new housing starts had gone down, I think Q1 last year was abnormally low. So I think both start impacting, right? We're comping ourselves out of the dip that we had last year.

嗯，由於新屋開工量下降，我認為去年第一季的水平異常低。所以我認為兩者都開始產生影響，對吧？我們正在努力擺脫去年的低谷。

Got it. And then just one last one on commercial. What do you think the market did this quarter? I mean, the AHRI data, which is obviously a little more narrow than what some people define as a light commercial market. That looked pretty strong. you guys had volume that was up, I think, mid- to high single digits. What do you think the market did? And did you guys -- I guess, how do you perform relative to that in your estimation?

知道了。然後是最後一張商業廣告。您認為本季市場表現如何？我的意思是，AHRI 的數據顯然比一些人定義的輕商業市場要窄一些。那看起來相當強大。我認為你們的交易量有所上升，達到了中高個位數。您認為市場做了什麼？你們──我想，相對於你們的估計，你們的表現如何？

Our AHRI reported rooftop units were up more than that 7%. We had some declines in our refrigeration volume within the quarter that were taking down some of the gains, but we think we grew faster than the AHRI on rooftops within the quarter, winning back some share.

我們的 AHRI 報告屋頂單位上漲了 7% 以上。本季我們的冷氣量有所下降，導致部分收益下降，但我們認為本季我們的屋頂冷氣成長速度快於 AHRI，贏回了一些份額。

Yes. And you can take our entire segment and compare it. Michael is saying only a portion of our segment gets compared to that. So we did equal or better than the AHRI data.

是的。你可以把我們的整個部分做比較。麥可說，我們的細分市場中只有一部分可以與此進行比較。所以我們的表現與 AHRI 數據相同或更好。

Next question comes from Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Gautam Khanna 和 TD Cowen。

I had a couple of questions. First, was wondering in April, you talked about destocking in the third-party channel coming to an end. Can you talk about maybe April order trends in that channel and how that might inform your conviction?

我有幾個問題。首先，我想知道四月份，您談到第三方管道的去庫存即將結束。您能談談該管道四月份的訂單趨勢以及這將如何影響您的信念嗎？

Yes. Given that we are having the call towards the end of April, conviction is already reflective of what we are seeing in April. So we remain convinced that the destocking is coming to an end.

是的。鑑於我們在四月底召開電話會議，信念已經反映了我們在四月所看到的情況。因此，我們仍然相信去庫存即將結束。

Do you anticipate that channel will be down in the second quarter still in terms of unit volumes?

您預計該通路在第二季的銷量仍將下降嗎？

No. I would expect that channel to be up in unit volume in Q2.

不會。

Okay. And that's irrespective -- I mean, assuming weather is not a big variable year-to-year.

好的。這無關緊要——我的意思是，假設天氣每年變化不大。

Yes. I'm going to call out weather, but listen, I don't want to get nervous just because I have to wear a sweatshirt in Texas in April.

是的。我要喊出天氣，但是聽著，我不想因為四月份在德克薩斯州必須穿運動衫而感到緊張。

Got you. Okay. I was wondering if you could talk about the demand you think you'll have as the new Mexican capacity comes online. So maybe if you could talk about customers or business that you may not have been able to accommodate on the commercial side. So because obviously, people get concerned about commercial unitary demand starting to soften after a big run up of COVID. What gives you conviction that you'll be able to fulfill that capacity over time?

明白你了。好的。我想知道您是否可以談談您認為隨著墨西哥新產能上線後將面臨的需求。因此，也許您可以談論您在商業方面可能無法適應的客戶或業務。因為顯然，人們擔心新冠疫情大幅上漲後，商業單一需求開始疲軟。是什麼讓您堅信隨著時間的推移您將能夠實現這項能力？

Yes. So listen, great question. While there are no certainties. Here's what we know and we look at, right? I mean, our order rates continue to be higher than what we can manufacture, and we are still turning away businesses that we would rather not. So that's just internal way we are looking at, and that's been going out for 2 to 3 years now. So could (inaudible) tomorrow it might, but that's one.

是的。聽著，很好的問題。雖然還沒有確定的事情。這是我們所知道和所關注的，對吧？我的意思是，我們的訂單率持續高於我們的生產能力，而且我們仍在拒絕那些我們不願意的業務。所以這只是我們正在考慮的內部方式，而且這種方式已經推出了兩三年了。明天也可能（聽不清楚），但僅此而已。

Second, we have made significant investments in preparing our sales team to go out and start adding -- in some cases, adding back contractors whom we had lost and working towards emergency replacement. And that's part of some of the investments that we talked about is leveraging our core contractors or Lennox dealers to be able to push that emergency replacement market. And finally, it's the key accounts and the conversations that we're having with them especially when it comes to 454B products because some of them had delayed replacement and want to do replacement with 454B products because they know that, that refrigerants will be around longer and will be lower global warming potential rated. So they get some carbon credits for that as well.

其次，我們投入了大量資金，準備讓我們的銷售團隊出去並開始增加——在某些情況下，重新增加我們失去的承包商，並努力進行緊急替換。我們談到的一些投資的一部分是利用我們的核心承包商或倫諾克斯經銷商來推動緊急更換市場。最後，這是我們與他們進行的關鍵客戶和對話，特別是在涉及454B 產品時，因為他們中的一些人推遲了更換，並希望用454B 產品進行更換，因為他們知道冷媒的使用壽命會更長並將獲得較低的全球暖化潛力評級。因此他們也因此獲得了一些碳信用額。

So multiple factors in there goes down to our current rate investments we have made in drumming up extra demand, and lots and lots of conversations with our key accounts to pull that forward. But at the same time, I mean, current factory is running kind of overcapacity. So in case the demand fully doesn't come through, we've got lots of flexibility in where we produce and what we produce. And that flexibility is also super exciting to us and baked into our numbers going forward.

因此，其中的多個因素都歸結為我們為吸引額外需求而進行的當前利率投資，以及與我們的關鍵客戶進行的大量對話以推動這一進程。但同時，我的意思是，目前的工廠產能有些過剩。因此，如果需求沒有完全滿足，我們在生產地點和生產內容方面擁有很大的靈活性。這種靈活性也讓我們非常興奮，並融入了我們未來的數字中。

That's helpful. And last one for me. On the JCI assets for sale, you guys have expressed an interest in the York resi unitary stuff. If it were -- if there were other assets embedded in whatever they're selling, is that something you guys would entertain? Or is that too much complexity for what you ultimately want and therefore not worth pursuing? I'm just curious how that -- because we hear that then we sell more of it, pull it once, then you got to divest it or whatever.

這很有幫助。最後一張給我。關於 JCI 待售資產，你們已經表達了對 York Resi 單一資產的興趣。如果是的話——如果他們銷售的東西中嵌入了其他資產，你們會接受嗎？或者對於您最終想要的東西來說太複雜，因此不值得追求？我只是很好奇這是怎麼回事——因為我們聽說然後我們會出售更多，拉動一次，然後你必須剝離它或其他什麼。

Yes, sure. No, that's fair. Again, I don't want to comment on other company, but I'll tell you we are going to be focused on HVAC. I mean we are an HVACR company, and that's what we do, focused on that. And I don't think that's going to change just because opportunistically something else becomes available. And our strategy is working. We have the scale. We see a strong pathway ahead for us just doing execution on our (inaudible) business end. But we'll remain very focused.

是的，當然。不，這很公平。再說一次，我不想評論其他公司，但我會告訴你我們將專注於暖通空調。我的意思是，我們是一家 HVACR 公司，這就是我們所做的，專注於此。我認為這種情況不會因為機會主義地出現其他東西而改變。我們的策略正在發揮作用。我們有規模。我們看到，只要在我們的（聽不清楚）業務端執行，我們前面就有一條強大的道路。但我們將保持高度專注。

And that's North American HVAC, just to be clear, correct?

澄清一下，這就是北美暖通空調，對嗎？

No, I would say we are looking at North American HVAC as being the primary market. We do a lot of exports as well. And the heat pump technology that we use, we do get from overseas. As you know, we already have hundreds of millions of sales in that.

不，我想說我們正在將北美暖通空調視為主要市場。我們也做很多出口。我們使用的熱泵技術確實是從海外獲得的。如您所知，我們的銷售額已經達到數億美元。

And thank you for joining us today. With no further questions, this will conclude the Lennox's 2024 First Quarter Conference Call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

感謝您今天加入我們。沒有其他問題，Lennox 2024 年第一季電話會議就此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。