Lennox International Inc (LII) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Lennox Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加 Lennox 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

提醒一下，此通話正在錄音。

And I would now like to turn the conference over to Chelsey Pulcheon from Lennox Investor Relations team. Chelsey, please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給 Lennox 投資者關係團隊的 Chelsey Pulcheon。切爾西，請繼續。

Thank you, Ashley. Good morning, everyone. We are excited to have you here with us this morning. Joining me today is CEO, Alok Maskara; CFO, Joe Reitmeier; and VP Finance, Michael Quenzer.

謝謝你，阿什利。大家，早安。我們很高興今天早上您能來到這裡。今天加入我的是首席執行官 Alok Maskara；首席財務官喬·雷特邁爾；財務副總裁 Michael Quenzer。

Alok will discuss quarter highlights and Joe will go into depth on the company's quarterly financial results and our updated guidance for fiscal 2023. After that, we will have a Q&A session with Alok, Joe and Michael.

Alok 將討論季度亮點，Joe 將深入介紹公司的季度財務業績和我們更新的 2023 財年指引。之後，我們將與 Alok、Joe 和 Michael 進行問答環節。

Turning to Slide 2. A reminder that during today's call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as outlined on this page. We may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that management considers to be relevant indicators of underlying business performance.

轉向幻燈片 2。提醒您，在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性聲明，這些聲明受到本頁概述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響。我們還可能會參考管理層認為是基本業務績效相關指標的某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Please refer to our SEC filings available on our website for additional details, including a reconciliation of all GAAP and non-GAAP measures.

請參閱我們網站上提供的 SEC 文件以了解更多詳細信息，包括所有 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標的調節表。

The earnings release, today's presentation slides and the webcast archived link for today's call are available on our new Investor Relations website at www.investor.lennox.com.

收益報告、今天的演示幻燈片以及今天電話會議的網絡廣播存檔鏈接均可在我們新的投資者關係網站 www.investor.lennox.com 上獲取。

Now let me turn over the call to our CEO, Alok Maskara.

現在讓我將電話轉給我們的首席執行官阿洛克·馬斯卡拉 (Alok Maskara)。

Thank you, Chelsey. Good morning, everyone. I am delighted to share our impressive results from the recent quarter ending on June 30, during which we delivered record revenues, record profit, record EPS, record margins and record cash flow. These results demonstrate the power of our focused growth strategy and the progress of our commercial turnaround plan.

謝謝你，切爾西。大家，早安。我很高興與大家分享我們截至 6 月 30 日的最近一個季度取得的令人印象深刻的業績，在此期間，我們實現了創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的利潤、創紀錄的每股收益、創紀錄的利潤率和創紀錄的現金流。這些結果證明了我們重點增長戰略的力量以及我們商業周轉計劃的進展。

I am grateful to our dealers and customers for their continued loyalty towards our products and services as we remain committed to further improving our service levels and enhancing their customer experience. I'm also thankful for the dedication and hard work of my 13,000 Lennox colleagues, whose relentless efforts have contributed to our outstanding performance this quarter.

我感謝我們的經銷商和客戶對我們的產品和服務的持續忠誠，因為我們仍然致力於進一步提高我們的服務水平並增強他們的客戶體驗。我還要感謝 13,000 名 Lennox 同事的奉獻和辛勤工作，他們的不懈努力成就了我們本季度的出色表現。

This successful quarter demonstrates the power of our laser-focused strategy, which builds on our existing strong direct customer relationships, advanced products platform and our unique distribution network. These factors will continue to fuel our share gain and margin expansion for the foreseeable future.

這個成功的季度展示了我們以激光為中心的戰略的力量，該戰略建立在我們現有的強大的直接客戶關係、先進的產品平台和獨特的分銷網絡的基礎上。在可預見的未來，這些因素將繼續推動我們的份額增長和利潤率擴張。

Now I want to discuss some key highlights of the quarter on Slide 3. First, core revenues grew 3% and our adjusted segment margin expanded 320 basis points to 20.9%, resulting in our adjusted earnings per share, increasing 22% to $6.15. Additionally, our operating cash flow increased nearly 100% to $196 million.

現在我想在幻燈片 3 上討論本季度的一些關鍵亮點。首先，核心收入增長了 3%，調整後的部門利潤率擴大了 320 個基點，達到 20.9%，導致我們調整後的每股收益增長 22%，達到 6.15 美元。此外，我們的運營現金流增長了近 100%，達到 1.96 億美元。

Second, we are extremely proud of our commercial team's execution of our profitable growth strategy. Both revenue and profits for the Commercial segment hit a record this quarter, driven by favorable price/mix and improved production output from our Stuttgart manufacturing location.

其次，我們對我們的商業團隊執行我們的盈利增長戰略感到非常自豪。在有利的價格/組合和斯圖加特製造基地產量提高的推動下，本季度商業部門的收入和利潤均創下歷史新高。

Third, residential end markets were challenging, which resulted in our Residential segment, delivering lower revenue, margins and profits. Margins were also impacted by lower factory output and absorption as we normalize our own inventory levels, post the SEER transition.

第三，住宅終端市場充滿挑戰，導致我們的住宅業務收入、利潤率和利潤下降。 SEER 轉型後，隨著我們使自己的庫存水平正常化，工廠產量和吸收率下降也影響了利潤率。

We remain cautiously optimistic about the second half, as we believe that the industry's inventory rightsizing is decelerating. In addition, our recent price increase will enable us to deliver improved margin performance during the balance of the year.

我們對下半年保持謹慎樂觀，因為我們認為行業庫存調整正在放緩。此外，我們最近的價格上漲將使我們能夠在今年餘下的時間裡提高利潤率。

Fourth and finally on this page, we are pleased to share the revised fiscal guidance for this year as we anticipate higher revenues, higher earnings per share and higher operating cash flow for the full year. Joe will review the revised guidance in greater depth later in the call.

第四，也是本頁的最後一點，我們很高興分享今年修訂後的財務指引，因為我們預計全年收入、每股收益和運營現金流將更高。喬將在稍後的電話會議中更深入地審查修訂後的指南。

Now, please turn to Slide 4 for our view on the current business conditions impacting the industry. For the residential end market, we experienced higher-than-expected distributor destocking and a cooler start to the summer selling season. We are now anticipating unit volumes for the full year to decline by high single digits versus prior expectation of a mid-single-digit decline.

現在，請參閱幻燈片 4，了解我們對影響行業的當前商業狀況的看法。對於住宅終端市場，我們經歷了高於預期的經銷商去庫存以及夏季銷售季節的涼爽開局。我們現在預計全年銷量將出現高個位數下降，而之前的預期是中個位數下降。

Looking at the second half, we expect the impact of distributor destocking to diminish and we have started to see an uptick in our replacement sales, consistent with higher [summer] temperatures.

展望下半年，我們預計經銷商去庫存的影響將會減弱，並且我們已經開始看到替換銷售的上升，這與[夏季]氣溫升高一致。

In Commercial, we now anticipate sales to be up low double digits for the full year versus prior expectations of high single digits to low double-digit sales increase. The order backlog remains strong, and although delivery lead times remain extended, they are 50% lower than last year and in line with the industry.

在商業領域，我們現在預計全年銷售額將增長兩位數，而之前的預期是高個位數到低兩位數的銷售額增長。訂單積壓仍然強勁，儘管交付週期仍然延長，但比去年減少了 50%，與行業情況一致。

Regarding price versus inflation, we are pleased to report that the industry pricing remains disciplined and our own mid-year price increase has been broadly successful. Our outlook on both components and commodity cost inflation remains stable and unchanged, and we expect the second half of the year to deliver a positive price versus inflation spread.

關於價格與通脹的關係，我們很高興地報告說，行業定價仍然嚴格，我們自己的年中提價大體上取得了成功。我們對零部件和大宗商品成本通脹的展望保持穩定和不變，我們預計下半年物價與通脹利差將出現正值。

Ultimately, our improved service levels and increased commercial production gives us confidence that we are well positioned to gain share in the second half of this year. We continue to invest SG&A dollars towards improving our go-to-market processes, while deploying incremental frontline resources to win over more dealers and more key accounts.

最終，我們提高的服務水平和增加的商業生產使我們相信我們有能力在今年下半年獲得市場份額。我們繼續投資銷售、行政管理費用來改善我們的上市流程，同時部署增量一線資源以贏得更多經銷商和更多大客戶。

We believe that Lennox outperformed the industry in successfully launching the product portfolio to meet the new minimum efficiency standards, gaining further loyalty from customers and our dealers. During future regulatory transitions, including the upcoming low GWP refrigerant requirements on January 1, 2025, Lennox aims to deliver similar outperformance and capture additional share.

我們相信，Lennox 在成功推出滿足新的最低效率標準的產品組合方面優於行業，進一步贏得了客戶和經銷商的忠誠度。在未來的監管轉型期間，包括即將於 2025 年 1 月 1 日實施的低 GWP 製冷劑要求，Lennox 的目標是實現類似的優異表現並獲得更多份額。

Please turn to Slide 5 for more details regarding ongoing Lennox activities related to the upcoming refrigerant transition. We are pleased to announce that Lennox will transition to R-454B from R-410A refrigerant to meet the EPA requirement effective January 1, 2025. The R-454B choice was driven by our commitment to provide the best option for our valued customers and the environment. Compared to the existing 410A refrigerant, R-454B reduces greenhouse gas emissions and is approximately 80% less global warming potential.

請參閱幻燈片 5，了解與即將到來的製冷劑過渡相關的 Lennox 正在進行的活動的更多詳細信息。我們很高興地宣布，Lennox 將從 R-410A 製冷劑過渡到 R-454B，以滿足 2025 年 1 月 1 日生效的 EPA 要求。選擇 R-454B 是因為我們致力於為尊貴的客戶提供最佳選擇，並且環境。與現有的 410A 製冷劑相比，R-454B 減少了溫室氣體排放，全球變暖潛力降低了約 80%。

Lennox has demonstrated a solid track record of successfully navigating regulatory changes and this will be no exception. We have completed most product redesign and are now in the testing phase for this transition. The redesign includes updated compressors and other components for refrigerant compatibility and high efficiency performance.

Lennox 在成功應對監管變化方面擁有良好的記錄，這次也不例外。我們已經完成了大部分產品的重新設計，目前正處於此過渡的測試階段。重新設計包括更新壓縮機和其他組件，以實現製冷劑兼容性和高效率性能。

To address safety requirements for the new A2L refrigerate, we will have additional safeguards on all our products that use this refrigerant. These safeguards may include sensors, controls and algorithms which will mitigate any leaks if and when they occur.

為了滿足新型 A2L 製冷劑的安全要求，我們將為所有使用該製冷劑的產品提供額外的保障措施。這些防護措施可能包括傳感器、控制裝置和算法，一旦發生洩漏，它們將減輕洩漏的影響。

Safety of all our products remains our highest priority, and our redesign will meet or exceed applicable safety standards. As you know, Lennox has a structural advantage of primarily selling direct to dealers. This enables our team to deliver advanced training to deliverers and equip them with accurate information to share with the end consumers. This helps us and our dealers to win during the regulatory transition, while addressing all the safety requirements for manufacturing, distribution and installation.

我們所有產品的安全仍然是我們的首要任務，我們的重新設計將達到或超過適用的安全標準。如您所知，Lennox 的結構性優勢主要是直接向經銷商銷售產品。這使我們的團隊能夠為送貨員提供高級培訓，並為他們提供準確的信息以與最終消費者分享。這有助於我們和我們的經銷商在監管過渡期間取得勝利，同時滿足製造、分銷和安裝的所有安全要求。

Throughout this transition, we do not expect a significant inventory prebuild as the transition to R-454B would likely happen faster compared to similar refrigerant transitions in the past. We intend to deliver a safe, seamless transition, supported by appropriate inventory levels. By maintaining strong relationships and timely communications with our suppliers, we will avoid supply chain disruptions.

在整個過渡過程中，我們預計不會出現大量庫存預建，因為與過去類似的製冷劑過渡相比，向 R-454B 的過渡可能會更快。我們打算在適當的庫存水平的支持下實現安全、無縫的過渡。通過與供應商保持牢固的關係和及時的溝通，我們將避免供應鏈中斷。

While we are still reviewing this transition's financial impact, we expect it to be neutral or accretive to our margins. We are confident that the increase in the product cost will be offset by price. Overall, we anticipate that once again, we will outperform the industry and garner additional loyalty from our dealers and customers during this refrigerant transition.

雖然我們仍在審查這一轉變的財務影響，但我們預計它將對我們的利潤產生中性或增值。我們有信心產品成本的增加將被價格所抵消。總體而言，我們預計，在製冷劑轉型期間，我們將再次超越行業，並獲得經銷商和客戶的額外忠誠度。

Now let me hand the call over to Joe, who will take us through the details of our Q2 financial performance.

現在讓我將電話轉交給喬，他將向我們介紹第二季度財務業績的詳細信息。

Thank you, Alok. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 6.

謝謝你，阿洛克。大家，早安。請翻到幻燈片 6。

As Alok mentioned earlier, the company posted a strong revenue and earnings growth. Core revenue, which excludes our European operations was a record $1.34 billion, up 3% compared to prior year's price and mix benefits, more than offset Residential sales volume declines.

正如阿洛克之前提到的，該公司的收入和盈利增長強勁。核心收入（不包括我們的歐洲業務）達到創紀錄的 13.4 億美元，與上一年的價格和組合收益相比增長 3%，足以抵消住宅銷量下降的影響。

Total adjusted segment profit increased $50 million or 22% versus prior year. Price and mix increased profit by $106 million and were partially offset with $43 million from lower volume and $13 million from inflationary effects and investments in distribution and SG&A.

調整後的部門利潤總額比上年增加了 5000 萬美元，即 22%。價格和組合使利潤增加了 1.06 億美元，但被銷量下降帶來的 4300 萬美元利潤和通貨膨脹影響以及分銷和銷售及管理費用投資帶來的 1300 萬美元部分抵消。

Total adjusted segment margin was 20.9%, up 320 basis points versus prior year. For the quarter, corporate expenses were $25 million, a decline of $2 million, as we continue to tightly control corporate spending.

調整後的分部利潤率為 20.9%，比上年增長 320 個基點。由於我們繼續嚴格控制企業支出，本季度企業支出為 2500 萬美元，減少了 200 萬美元。

The second quarter not only achieved record levels of revenue and segment profit, but also marked record earnings per share, with GAAP earnings per share rising 23% to $6.10, and adjusted earnings per share growing by 22% to $6.15. Our record -- our second quarter tax rate was 17.6%, and diluted shares outstanding were 35.6 million compared to 35.7 million in the prior year quarter.

第二季度不僅實現了創紀錄的收入和部門利潤水平，而且每股收益也創下了歷史新高，公認會計原則每股收益增長23%至6.10美元，調整後每股收益增長22%至6.15美元。我們的記錄是——我們第二季度的稅率為 17.6%，攤薄後的流通股數量為 3560 萬股，而去年同期為 3570 萬股。

Now turn to Slide 7. As we saw in the first quarter, industry-wide distributor destocking continued in the second quarter and the summer season began with cooler temperatures, resulting in a 12% volume decline. The volume decline was partially offset with 2% favorable price and 6% favorable mix.

現在轉向幻燈片 7。正如我們在第一季度看到的那樣，第二季度全行業經銷商繼續去庫存，夏季開始時氣溫較低，導致銷量下降 12%。 2% 的優惠價格和 6% 的優惠組合部分抵消了銷量下降。

Our direct-to-dealer sales, which are around 75% of our segment revenues, experienced a revenue increase in the low single digits. The remaining 25% of our revenue, which goes through distributors was down approximately 20%.

我們的直接面向經銷商的銷售約占我們部門收入的 75%，收入實現了較低的個位數增長。我們通過分銷商獲得的剩餘 25% 收入下降了約 20%。

Residential segment profit fell 6% to $203 million, and segment margin dipped 50 basis points to 21.6%, driven primarily by lower volume, inflation effects and selling and distribution investments. The headwinds were partially offset with price increases and favorable mix, partially driven by the new minimum efficiency standards.

住宅部門利潤下降 6%，至 2.03 億美元，部門利潤率下降 50 個基點，至 21.6%，這主要是由於銷量下降、通脹影響以及銷售和分銷投資所致。價格上漲和有利的組合部分抵消了不利因素，部分是由新的最低效率標準推動的。

Turning to Slide 8, and our Commercial business that delivered another quarter of exceptional results. Revenue was $408 million in the quarter, up 24%. Combined price and mix were up 22% and volume was up 4%. Commercial segment profit was $103 million, up 150% and segment margin more than doubled to 25.3%.

轉向幻燈片 8，我們的商業業務又在一個季度取得了出色的業績。該季度收入為 4.08 億美元，增長 24%。綜合價格和產品組合上漲了 22%，成交量上漲了 4%。商業部門利潤為 1.03 億美元，增長 150%，部門利潤率翻了一倍多，達到 25.3%。

Price and mix had an outsized impact in the quarter, delivering $66 million and the total $62 million -- of the total $62 million of the profit increase. Last year, we provided guidance on a multiyear profit opportunity of $100 million, and I'm delighted to share that our trailing 12-month segment profit has already surged by $120 million compared to the same period last year.

價格和產品組合對該季度產生了巨大影響，帶來了 6600 萬美元的收益，而利潤增長總額為 6200 萬美元，總收益為 6200 萬美元。去年，我們提供了 1 億美元的多年利潤機會指導，我很高興地告訴大家，與去年同期相比，我們過去 12 個月的分部利潤已經飆升了 1.2 億美元。

Our rooftop production output continues to increase, and we are maintaining a robust commercial backlog, while steadily improving delivery lead times, which now align with the industry.

我們的屋頂產量持續增加，我們保持著強勁的商業積壓，同時穩步縮短交付週期，現在與行業保持一致。

Moving to cash flow performance and our debt to EBITDA starting on Slide 9. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $196 million compared to $97 million in the prior year quarter. Capital expenditures were $49 million for the quarter, an increase of $28 million compared to the prior year. Our capital deployment priorities remain consistent, supporting organic growth investments like our new commercial factory in Mexico, driving industry-leading innovation and exploring potential bolt-on acquisitions.

從幻燈片 9 開始轉向現金流績效和我們的 EBITDA 債務。本季度​​的運營現金流為 1.96 億美元，而去年同期為 9700 萬美元。該季度資本支出為 4900 萬美元，比上年增加 2800 萬美元。我們的資本部署優先事項保持一致，支持有機增長投資，例如我們在墨西哥的新商業工廠，推動行業領先的創新並探索潛在的補強收購。

In the quarter, the company paid $38 million in dividends. Total debt was approximately $1.6 billion at the end of the quarter, and our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 1.9x. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $58.6 million at the end of the quarter.

本季度，該公司支付了 3800 萬美元的股息。截至本季度末，總債務約為 16 億美元，債務與 EBITDA 比率為 1.9 倍。截至本季度末，現金、現金等價物和短期投資為 5860 萬美元。

Turning to Slide 10. Let's review our 2023 full year guidance. As a result of our strong first half performance, we are increasing our full year outlook. We expect core revenue to be up between 2% and 4% for the year and earnings per share of $15.50 per share to $16 per share. We are increasing our free cash flow target to a range of $300 million to $350 million.

轉向幻燈片 10。讓我們回顧一下我們的 2023 年全年指導。由於上半年表現強勁，我們提高了全年預期。我們預計今年核心收入將增長 2% 至 4%，每股收益為 15.50 美元至 16 美元。我們將自由現金流目標提高至 3 億至 3.5 億美元。

Our guidance for capital expenditures remains consistent with our prior guide at $250 million. As a reminder, that includes investment in a second commercial factory and investments related to the refrigerant transition to take effect in 2025.

我們對資本支出的指導與之前的 2.5 億美元指導保持一致。提醒一下，這包括對第二家商業工廠的投資以及與將於 2025 年生效的製冷劑轉型相關的投資。

Price benefit is now expected to be $250 million, and we now expect net material cost to be a $25 million headwind in 2023. The material cost headwind is driven by component cost inflation of $90 million, net of $30 million in savings from cost reduction initiatives, along with the $35 million commodity cost benefit.

目前，價格收益預計為 2.5 億美元，我們現在預計 2023 年淨材料成本將減少 2500 萬美元。材料成本的減少是由 9000 萬美元的零部件成本通脹推動的，扣除成本削減舉措節省的 3000 萬美元，以及 3500 萬美元的商品成本效益。

Our new target for corporate expenses is $95 million attributable to higher incentive compensation expenses. We will continue to manage SG&A expenses tightly, while simultaneously making essential investments in the business to support growth initiatives, advance our innovative products and solutions and enhance productivity. And finally, we still expect the weighted average diluted share count for the full year to be between 35 million and 36 million shares.

由於激勵補償費用增加，我們的企業支出新目標為 9500 萬美元。我們將繼續嚴格管理銷售、管理和行政費用，同時對業務進行必要的投資，以支持增長計劃、推進我們的創新產品和解決方案並提高生產力。最後，我們仍然預計全年加權平均攤薄股數將在 3500 萬股至 3600 萬股之間。

With that, let's turn to Slide 11, and I'll turn it back over to Alok.

接下來，讓我們轉向幻燈片 11，我將把它轉回 Alok。

Thanks, Joe. In addition to solid short-term results, we are also making significant progress towards transforming the company for longer-term shareholder value expansion. Last quarter, we shared the key initiatives that pave a clear path towards our 2026 financial targets.

謝謝，喬。除了堅實的短期業績外，我們還在公司轉型以實現長期股東價值擴張方面取得了重大進展。上季度，我們分享了為實現 2026 年財務目標鋪平道路的關鍵舉措。

Today, we would like to share 3 transformation phases that would clarify the execution time frame of those initiatives. Collectively, these initiatives will deliver on the 2026 targets and set up Lennox for even longer-term value creation.

今天，我們想分享三個轉型階段，以闡明這些舉措的執行時間框架。總的來說，這些舉措將實現 2026 年的目標，並使 Lennox 能夠創造更長期的價值。

We are currently in the self-help phase of the plan, which delivers execution consistency to our customers and shareholders. We have already demonstrated success in our commercial recovery and portfolio simplification initiatives. Our pricing excellence initiative will drive favorable margins through improved price setting, getting and netting. We are strengthening our core foundation by enhancing talent and reinforcing culture with an emphasis on accountability. This stronger foundation will serve as a springboard for accelerated growth in 2025 and beyond.

我們目前正處於該計劃的自助階段，該階段為我們的客戶和股東提供執行的一致性。我們已經在商業復甦和投資組合簡化計劃方面取得了成功。我們的卓越定價計劃將通過改進價格設定、獲取和淨額結算來推動有利的利潤。我們正在通過增強人才和加強文化（強調問責制）來加強我們的核心基礎。這一更堅實的基礎將成為 2025 年及以後加速增長的跳板。

Looking into 2025, Lennox is prepared for growth acceleration in several areas. Our up-to-dated go-to-market sales strategy will increase our growth capacity and grow our core dealer base with a renewed focus on premium margin products. As we highlighted earlier, we anticipate accelerated share gain during the upcoming refrigerant change. Our technology advantage in cold climate heat pump will enable additional share gain during ongoing industry electrification.

展望 2025 年，Lennox 已做好在多個領域加速增長的準備。我們最新的上市銷售策略將提高我們的增長能力，並通過重新關注溢價產品來擴大我們的核心經銷商基礎。正如我們之前強調的那樣，我們預計在即將到來的製冷劑更換期間，份額將加速增長。我們在寒冷氣候熱泵方面的技術優勢將在持續的行業電氣化過程中實現額外的份額增長。

While we remain committed to delivering our 2026 financial targets, we also recognize the opportunities to continue expanding shareholder value even beyond 2026. We will build upon our structural competitive advantage with an expanded distribution network to increase our North American coverage.

在我們仍然致力於實現 2026 年財務目標的同時，我們也認識到在 2026 年之後繼續擴大股東價值的機會。我們將通過擴大分銷網絡來鞏固我們的結構性競爭優勢，以擴大我們的北美覆蓋範圍。

We will also capitalize on this expanded distribution network to expand our share of wallet through higher commercial service penetration, higher attachment rates for parts, supplies and adjacent products used by HVAC dealers.

我們還將利用這一擴大的分銷網絡，通過更高的商業服務滲透率、更高的暖通空調經銷商使用的零件、用品和相鄰產品的附加率來擴大我們的錢包份額。

In summary, we are committed to our 2026 fiscal targets and also have a clear line of sight to strategic imperatives that will continue creating differentiated shareholder value.

總之，我們致力於實現 2026 年的財政目標，並對戰略要務有清晰的認識，將繼續創造差異化的股東價值。

Now please turn to Slide 12, where I will like to recap why I believe that Lennox's structural competitive advantage is poised to deliver long-term differentiated shareholder value. Let me highlight the 5 pillars of our structural advantage.

現在請轉到幻燈片 12，我將在其中回顧一下為什麼我相信 Lennox 的結構性競爭優勢將帶來長期差異化的股東價值。讓我強調一下我們結構性優勢的五個支柱。

First, our direct-to-dealer model uniquely positions us to deliver accelerated growth. To capture this, we will enhance our sales go-to-market effectiveness, consistently elevate the customer experience and make necessary investments in growth capacity to meet market demand.

首先，我們的直接面向經銷商的模式使我們能夠實現加速增長。為了實現這一目標，我們將提高銷售進入市場的有效性，不斷提升客戶體驗，並對增長能力進行必要的投資，以滿足市場需求。

Second, because we own our own primary distribution channel, we can deliver sustainable and resilient higher margins by leveraging scale and technology to reduce cost and increase the efficiency of our distribution network.

其次，由於我們擁有自己的主要分銷渠道，因此我們可以利用規模和技術來降低成本並提高分銷網絡的效率，從而實現可持續且有彈性的更高利潤。

Third, our balanced scorecard-based operating system, dual sourced supply chain and lean digital processes, deliver execution consistency throughout our operations.

第三，我們基於平衡記分卡的操作系統、雙源供應鍊和精益數字流程在我們的整個運營過程中實現了執行的一致性。

The fourth pillar is our advanced technology portfolio that is perfectly suited to serve the North American heating and cooling industry with environmentally sustainable innovative solutions.

第四個支柱是我們的先進技術組合，非常適合通過環境可持續的創新解決方案為北美供暖和製冷行業提供服務。

Finally, we have high-performance talent and culture that is nurtured by our core values and recently launched guiding behaviors. We are continuously engaged in talent development and succession planning, while diligently ensuring that our compensation structure is closely aligned to shareholder value creation.

最後，我們擁有由我們的核心價值觀和最近推出的指導行為培育的高績效人才和文化。我們不斷致力於人才發展和繼任計劃，同時努力確保我們的薪酬結構與股東價值創造緊密結合。

I would like to close by reaffirming my gratitude to our employees and our customers. We are proud of our accomplishments in the first half of this year and continue to believe that our best days are ahead of us.

最後，我想重申對我們的員工和客戶的感謝。我們對今年上半年取得的成就感到自豪，並繼續相信最好的日子就在前方。

Thank you. Joe, Michael and I will be happy to take your questions now. Ashley, let's go to Q&A.

謝謝。喬、邁克爾和我現在很樂意回答您的問題。阿什利，讓我們開始問答吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We will take our first question from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc.

我們將回答來自 KeyBanc 的 Jeff Hammond 的第一個問題。

Just on commercial, I mean that the margins were just exceptional. So I just wanted to understand margin sustainability, any aberrations in the quarter? And then maybe just speak to the backlog and how much your lead times are improving versus peak and just the level of reduction that kind of contributed to the quarter?

就商業而言，我的意思是利潤率非常高。所以我只是想了解利潤率的可持續性，本季度有什麼異常情況嗎？然後也許只談談積壓情況，以及您的交貨時間與高峰相比縮短了多少，以及為本季度做出的貢獻的減少程度？

Yes. From a sustainability perspective, first, the backlog remains resilient. It's down a little bit, mostly because the lead times are improving. Margins within the backlog remains strong, reflective of the margins we saw in Q2. So pricing mix is solid in that business. And again, we continue to see output coming out of the factory, which is a good sign for volume growth to continue.

是的。從可持續發展的角度來看，首先，積壓訂單仍然具有彈性。它有所下降，主要是因為交貨時間正在改善。積壓訂單的利潤率仍然強勁，反映了我們在第二季度看到的利潤率。因此，該業務的定價組合是穩固的。同樣，我們繼續看到工廠產出，這是產量持續增長的好兆頭。

Yes. I think the one thing you'll see, Jeff, for the quarter, price and mix propped up the quarter. In back half of the year, you should see volume even more from the commercial segment. So we're excited about the future there. Once again, I think we've achieved getting this business back to the trajectory that it was once on and are excited about our ability to now demonstrate our trajectory of getting into our target margins by 2026.

是的。傑夫，我認為您在本季度會看到的一件事是，價格和組合支撐了該季度。今年下半年，您應該會看到商業領域的銷量更大。所以我們對那裡的未來感到興奮。我認為我們已經再次讓這項業務回到了原來的軌道，並且我們對現在能夠展示我們在 2026 年達到目標利潤率的軌跡感到興奮。

Okay. Great. And then just in resi, anything more than really weather that's informing kind of the lower trajectory there? And just maybe speak to how your destocking is going for your company-owned stores.

好的。偉大的。然後，就Resi而言，除了真正的天氣之外，還有什麼可以告訴我們較低的軌跡嗎？也許可以談談你們公司自營商店的去庫存情況如何。

Sure. This is Alok. Yes, listen, on resi, I don't want to talk just about weather, but we all know Q2 was softer. I think the distributor destocking was also more pronounced than we had expected. And at the end, we took our volume guide down and talking about high single digits. That's also to just reflect our learning in 6 months of the year. But as you see -- notice, we kept our revenue the same.

當然。這是阿洛克。是的，聽著，關於 Resi，我不想只談論天氣，但我們都知道第二季度的情況更加疲軟。我認為經銷商去庫存的程度也比我們預期的更為明顯。最後，我們降低了音量指南並討論了高個位數。這也是為了反映我們一年中 6 個月的學習情況。但正如你所看到的——注意，我們的收入保持不變。

From my perspective, our own inventory destocking is going fine. I think it will take us another 6 to 9 months to bring it down to more normal levels. And that's because internally, we are just more cautious and don't want to lay off a lot of people just to turn around and try and hire them, which we know was a struggle in the past.

從我的角度來看，我們自己的去庫存進展順利。我認為我們還需要 6 到 9 個月的時間才能將其降至更正常的水平。這是因為在內部，我們只是更加謹慎，不想解僱很多人只是為了轉身嘗試僱用他們，我們知道這在過去是一場鬥爭。

From what we hear from the distributors, they -- most of them expect destocking to be over by Q3. If there's a little bit that bleeds into Q4, that's likely to be seasonal products like furnaces and things that don't sell well in Q3. So that view hasn't changed for us.

從我們從經銷商那裡聽到的消息來看，他們中的大多數人預計去庫存將在第三季度結束。如果有一點影響到第四季度，那很可能是季節性產品，比如爐子和第三季度賣得不好的東西。所以我們的觀點並沒有改變。

So overall, in resi, it's slightly worse than we had talked about last time. But within the overall guide range, we think it's similar outlook to what we previously disclosed.

所以總體來說，在resi方面，比我們上次談到的要差一些。但在總體指導範圍內，我們認為其前景與我們之前披露的類似。

We'll take our next question from Tommy Moll with Stephens Inc.

我們將回答湯米·莫爾 (Tommy Moll) 和斯蒂芬斯公司 (Stephens Inc.) 提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to follow up with one more on the resi volume trends and outlook. Are you able to share the volume trends in the quarter for direct-to-dealer versus Allied? And then you've talked on several occasions about the distributor destocking, which I would think is more an Allied-driven comment, but is there anything on a sell-through basis other than, like you said, about the cooler weather in the second quarter that's changed in terms of your outlook?

我想再跟進一篇關於 Resi 交易量趨勢和前景的文章。您能否分享本季度直接經銷商與 Allied 的銷量趨勢？然後你在多個場合談到了經銷商去庫存的問題，我認為這更像是盟軍驅動的評論，但是除了像你所說的那樣，第二年天氣涼爽之外，還有什麼關於銷售的基礎嗎？您的看法在哪個季度發生了變化？

Yes. So clearly, Allied and ADP, which makes up our indirect channel, they had significant decline. Our core Lennox business was kind of flattish, maybe slightly down in terms of units. So I mean that gives us a lot of confidence that the industry is holding quite well. And all the current softness is mostly driven by just the distributor destocking.

是的。很明顯，構成我們間接渠道的 Allied 和 ADP 出現了顯著下降。我們的倫諾克斯核心業務有點持平，就單位而言可能略有下降。所以我的意思是，這給了我們很大的信心，讓我們相信這個行業的發展狀況良好。目前所有的疲軟主要是由經銷商去庫存造成的。

Now you've got to ignore things like weather because June was a little colder, July is going to be a little bit harder, but that just gets washes out for the full year, Tommy. But net-net, I think overall industry is holding up well, and the current impact is almost all driven by channel destocking.

現在你必須忽略天氣之類的因素，因為六月有點冷，七月會更困難，但湯米，這一點在全年都會消失。但淨淨，我認為整個行業保持良好，目前的影響幾乎都是由渠道去庫存推動的。

That's helpful. I also wanted to follow up on a theme you highlighted earlier, Alok, just on the accountability and growth culture that you really want to drive. Can you just bring us in a little bit more on what that means and what some of the initiatives are?

這很有幫助。我還想跟進您之前強調的主題，Alok，即您真正想要推動的問責制和增長文化。您能否向我們介紹一下這意味著什麼以及一些舉措是什麼？

Sure. So I mean, Lennox has a great culture, as always had a great culture. For the past 5 years, we just trained for Lennox. Starting with the Marshalltown tornado, which as you saw, we finally finished the rebuilding and we never want to use the T word again in any of our conversations. Two, to COVID and many other pieces where supply chain, we got disproportionately negative impacted versus the industry because the supply chain was more reliant on China.

當然。所以我的意思是，倫諾克斯擁有偉大的文化，一如既往。過去5年，我們只是為倫諾克斯進行訓練。從馬歇爾敦龍捲風開始，正如你所看到的，我們終於完成了重建，我們再也不想在我們的任何談話中使用“T”這個詞了。第二，對於新冠疫情和供應鏈的許多其他部分，我們受到的負面影響與行業相比不成比例，因為供應鏈更加依賴中國。

I think in the past 5 years, we just got beaten down and started using all of those as excuses. And I think going forward, we have launched -- relaunched our core values. We have 9 guiding behaviors. You may have seen some of those posters when you were here. Each and every employee is going through a training that's going to be over the next 12 months, complete.

我認為在過去的五年裡，我們只是被打敗了，並開始用所有這些作為藉口。我認為展望未來，我們已經重新啟動了我們的核心價值觀。我們有9個指導行為。您在這裡時可能已經看過其中一些海報。每位員工都將接受培訓，培訓​​將在接下來的 12 個月內完成。

And we really want to emphasize things such as customer experience, accountability, innovation, sustainability. And of course, that depends on where you are in the organization. But we are very pleased with the results. Employees are genuinely excited about the path forward, and everybody is ready to put the past 5 years behind us and truly embrace the next 5, 10 years.

我們確實想強調客戶體驗、責任、創新、可持續性等事情。當然，這取決於您在組織中的位置。但我們對結果非常滿意。員工們對前進的道路感到由衷的興奮，每個人都準備好把過去的五年拋在腦後，真正擁抱未來的五年、十年。

We'll take our next question from Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen.

我們將回答 Gautam Khanna 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

Great numbers, guys. I wanted to ask about that refrigerant change next year. And when do you expect the mix to transition to that new refrigerants? And then what is the pricing implications of that change? When do you start to see the product transition into the channel? And is it -- do we get another lift like we did this year with this year transition in terms of average selling price and the like?

伙計們，數字很大。我想問一下明年製冷劑的變化。您預計什麼時候會過渡到新的製冷劑？那麼這一變化對定價有何影響？您什麼時候開始看到產品過渡到渠道？是不是——我們是否會像今年一樣，在平均售價等方面獲得另一個提升？

Gautam, this is Michael. Yes. So the transition really won't happen until pretty much January, but you will start to see in January 2025, some of that price/mix dynamic where we'll lift up the price to more than offset the cost. But really, that will be more of a 2025 impact than 2024. We'll be preparing for that through inventory preparations and transitioning and preparing the dealer network, but really no financial impact in 2025 -- or 2024.

高塔姆，這是邁克爾。是的。因此，這種轉變實際上要到 1 月份左右才會發生，但您將在 2025 年 1 月開始看到一些價格/組合動態，我們將提高價格以超過抵消成本。但實際上，這對 2025 年的影響將比 2024 年更大。我們將通過庫存準備、過渡和準備經銷商網絡來為此做好準備，但實際上不會對 2025 年或 2024 年產生財務影響。

Okay. And just a quick follow-up on the Commercial side. Where are you with respect to the emergency replacement market? Have you kind of reentered it? Do you have the capacity to do that yet? And when do you expect to?

好的。商業方面的快速跟進。您在緊急更換市場方面處於什麼位置？你有沒有重新輸入它？你有能力這樣做嗎？您預計什麼時候會？

Yes, Gautam, the way I would characterize that right now, we're still focused on the planned replacement and national account segment of the business. We're early innings in reengaging in emergency replacement as our factory continues to increase output. By the end of the year, we'll be more fully engaged in that, but it's early innings right now, and that remains a significant upside opportunity for us going forward.

是的，高塔姆，我現在的描述方式是，我們仍然專注於計劃的更換和國民賬戶業務部分。隨著我們工廠繼續增加產量，我們正處於重新進行緊急更換的早期階段。到今年年底，我們將更充分地參與其中，但現在還處於早期階段，這對我們未來來說仍然是一個重要的上行機會。

We'll take our next question from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行 Nicole DeBlase 提出的下一個問題。

So just maybe on the revised full year guidance. So I think you're kind of implying that sub-50% of earnings going to come in the second half now. And typically, that's more like 55% in the second half. So just trying to understand like the dynamics between potential conservatism in the guidance or something that we should be factoring in from one half, as you have?

所以也許只是修改後的全年指導。所以我認為你的意思是，低於 50% 的收入將在下半年實現。通常情況下，下半年的比例約為 55%。因此，只是想了解指導中潛在的保守主義之間的動態，或者我們應該像你一樣從一半考慮的因素？

Yes. I think once again, Nicole, we've been accused of being conservative in the past. And I think even though we've had a strong first half, there still remains some uncertainty around the economy and certain Residential end markets, whether it's certainly cooperating now, it tempered second quarter results a little bit, and you saw that in our commentary about our Residential segment. But going forward, once again, I think we probably have upside in the number. But once again, we're going to be cautiously optimistic as we move forward.

是的。我想，妮可，我們過去又被指責為保守派。我認為，儘管我們上半年表現強勁，但經濟和某些住宅終端市場仍然存在一些不確定性，無論現在是否確實合作，它都會稍微緩和第二季度的業績，您在我們的評論中看到了這一點關於我們的住宅部門。但展望未來，我認為我們的數字可能還有上升空間。但我們將再次保持謹慎樂觀的態度繼續前進。

Got it. That's clear. And then with respect to the Resi margins. So I guess, normally, margins are kind of flattish sequentially between 2Q and 3Q from a seasonal perspective. Do you guys see opportunity to improve Resi margins as we move into the third quarter because of some of those specific headwinds that you called out on the call related to 2Q?

知道了。很清楚。然後是 Resi 利潤率。所以我想，通常情況下，從季節性角度來看，第二季度和第三季度之間的利潤率是持平的。由於你們在與第二季度相關的電話會議上指出的一些具體不利因素，當我們進入第三季度時，你們是否認為有機會提高 Resi 利潤率？

Nicole, this is Alok. On the Resi margins, I was disappointed on where the margins turned out to be. So while we understand the seasonal trend, and I don't want to bake up a lot of upside in the model. From my perspective, Resi margins have a lot more room for the upside.

妮可，這是阿洛克。在雷西的邊際上，我對邊際的結果感到失望。因此，雖然我們了解季節性趨勢，但我不想在模型中烘托出太多的優勢。從我的角度來看，雷西的利潤還有更大的上升空間。

If you think about just the things we talked about, we need to get more manufactured margin and distributor margin to have margin performance that's much, much higher than where we are today. So I think there's a lot of room. Our pricing excellence initiative which only starts in Q3, from delivering results perspective, is going to have a benefit. Right now, the factories are building less than we are selling. So there's a clear negative absorption impact, which is going to last through the year. So we think margins are going up in the second half, and then I think same will continue in 2024 as well.

如果您考慮一下我們談論的事情，我們需要獲得更多的製造利潤和分銷商利潤，才能獲得比我們今天高得多的利潤表現。所以我認為還有很大的空間。從交付結果的角度來看，我們僅在第三季度開始的卓越定價計劃將會帶來好處。目前，工廠的建設量少於我們的銷售量。因此，存在明顯的負面吸收影響，這種影響將持續全年。因此，我們認為下半年利潤率將會上升，而且我認為 2024 年也會繼續如此。

And we will take our next question from Ryan Merkel with William Blair.

我們將回答瑞安·默克爾和威廉·布萊爾提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to follow up on the Commercial margin. Joe, you said it was price/mix. I think that boosted the quarter. It seems like the second half, the guidance is more like EBIT margins in the 15, 16 range. So can you just help us bridge kind of 2Q to the second half and what's changing?

我想跟進商業利潤。喬，你說這是價格/組合。我認為這提振了本季度。下半年的指引似乎更像是息稅前利潤率在 15、16 範圍內。那麼您能否幫助我們將第二季度與下半年聯繫起來，以及發生了什麼變化？

So obviously, we don't give really second half guidance, but implied in that, there is still some conservativeness. But what you really saw in the first half was a lot of carryover price benefit that we started to get in the second half last year. So you will see some more price benefit in commercial in the first half than the second half. But with that said, our backlog still has solid margins and they should reflect that way through the balance of the year.

顯然，我們並沒有給出真正的下半年指導，但暗示仍然存在一些保守。但你在上半年真正看到的是我們從去年下半年開始獲得的大量結轉價格優勢。因此，您會在上半年看到比下半年更多的商業價格優勢。但話雖如此，我們的積壓訂單仍然有可觀的利潤，並且應該在今年的剩餘時間裡反映出這一點。

Okay. Makes sense. And then I had a question on Resi, just the second half sales. It seems to imply maybe down 1. And it seems like what are the big drivers? Is it destock decelerating and a bit more price? Is there anything else?

好的。說得通。然後我有一個關於Resi的問題，只是下半年的銷售情況。這似乎暗示著可能會下降 1。看起來最大的驅動因素是什麼？是去庫存減速，價格上漲嗎？還有別的事嗎？

I think those are the two right ones, Ryan, is destocking that caused most of the decline. And obviously, July weather has been a tailwind for us as we move forward. So I think those will be the 2 things I would call out.

我認為這兩個是正確的，瑞安，去庫存是造成大部分下降的原因。顯然，七月的天氣對我們前進來說是順風。所以我認為這將是我要指出的兩件事。

We will take our next question from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski 提出的下一個問題。

So I guess one thing I want to follow up on is, we talked about Commercial margins a little bit. Obviously, a big turn versus where we were a year ago. Alok, how much of what you're seeing today or what you're seeing this year is sort of a pull forward of maybe kind of the 3-year discussion that you originally laid out last year? Or you just had a plan by 12, 18 months? Is it more the price cost stuff, which maybe normalizes? Maybe walk us through that journey and how we should think about winning your progression from here?

所以我想我想跟進的一件事是，我們討論了一點商業利潤。顯然，與一年前相比，這是一個巨大的轉變。好吧，您今天看到的或今年看到的內容有多少是您去年最初提出的三年討論的推動？或者您剛剛在 12、18 個月之前製定了計劃？是否更多的是價格成本，這可能會正常化？也許可以帶我們走過這段旅程，以及我們應該如何考慮從這裡贏得你的進步？

Sure. Last year, about this time, they were at, I think, at Ryan's conference in Chicago, and we talked about $100 million. As Joe said, we have got $220 million. What happened is the price cost turned out to be better than rest as we expected. And that's because the team did a really good job kind of getting the cost benefits, getting the right kind of negotiations and repricing some of the backlog.

當然。去年，大約這個時候，我想他們參加了在芝加哥舉行的 Ryan 會議，我們討論了 1 億美元。正如喬所說，我們有 2.2 億美元。事實證明，正如我們預期的那樣，價格成本比休息要好。這是因為該團隊在獲得成本效益、進行正確的談判以及對一些積壓的訂單重新定價方面做得非常好。

The upside continues from a lot of other factors, such as manufacturing. We are still below historical levels, which we talked about in terms of output. I think our factory still has a lot more room for productivity. I still feel there's a lot more opportunity for us, as Joe mentioned earlier, on getting into things like emergency replacement, which we are barely scratching the surface of.

許多其他因素（例如製造業）繼續帶來上行空間。我們仍然低於我們在產量方面談到的歷史水平。我認為我們工廠還有很大的生產力空間。正如喬之前提到的，我仍然覺得我們有更多的機會進入緊急更換等領域，而我們剛剛觸及了這些問題的表面。

And remember, we have a second factory that we're spending money on right now with no output. So net-net, it's not necessarily kind of pull forward, I would say. It's kind of things that just went better than we had communicated. Now clearly, when we promised 3 years, for $100 million on an external basis, our internal plan called for half of that, and now we are 6 months ahead of it. We're glad to put that $100 million behind us.

請記住，我們有第二家工廠，我們現在正在花錢建設，但沒有產出。所以我想說，網絡-網絡，這不一定是一種向前拉動。事情比我們溝通的要好。現在很明顯，當我們承諾 3 年、外部 1 億美元時，我們的內部計劃要求一半，而現在我們提前了 6 個月。我們很高興能投入這 1 億美元。

We would not be making a new commitment. But we talk about a long-term margin range of we've always said we want both segments to be in the 18% to 20% range on a sustainable basis. And that's what we're going to be focused on.

我們不會做出新的承諾。但我們談論長期利潤率範圍，我們一直說我們希望這兩個細分市場能夠可持續地保持在 18% 至 20% 的範圍內。這就是我們要關注的重點。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just transitioning to this refrigerant transitions you talked about kind of the new equipment coming out in '25. I know next year, there's a big step down in allocation for R-410A. Any sense for what you think that does to refrigerant prices or the replacement market, if folks are like, hey, this refrigerant is getting much more expensive?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就過渡到這種製冷劑過渡，您談到了 25 年推出的新設備。我知道明年 R-410A 的分配將大幅減少。如果人們會說，嘿，這種製冷劑變得越來越貴，你認為這對製冷劑價格或替代市場有何影響？

Do I really want to replace something where availability is going to get tough? How do you think about that equipment transition being a couple of years away, but refrigerant gap up maybe being a little more near term, just open-ended question, anything on your mind.

我真的想更換可用性變得困難的東西嗎？您如何看待設備轉型還需要幾年時間，但製冷劑缺口可能會在近期出現，這只是一個開放式問題，您可以考慮任何問題。

Sure. A lot in there, and I'll tell you, we don't have a crystal ball looking into '24 yet. Each of the things that you mentioned is true, but we don't have final price on the R-410A for next year. There's always going to be an inventory draw down that we'll have to do to make sure we're not stuck with legacy R-410A beyond what we need.

當然。其中有很多內容，我會告訴你，我們還沒有水晶球來預測'24。您提到的每件事都是真實的，但我們沒有明年 R-410A 的最終價格。我們總是會減少庫存，以確保我們不會繼續使用超出我們需求的舊版 R-410A。

And from a consumer perspective, I think this is going to be a small change. We have gone through changes before. Consumers really don't think about refrigerants. It's more going to be educating our dealers and a few consumers who are probably more well versed in this than others.

從消費者的角度來看，我認為這將是一個小小的變化。我們之前也經歷過改變。消費者確實不會考慮製冷劑。更多的是教育我們的經銷商和一些消費者，他們可能比其他人更精通這一點。

So still a lot of moving pieces. Net-net, I think there's a danger of overanalyzing this because the industry is used to these changes, we are very used to this change, our dealers are now getting used to this change. I think this is going to happen more seamlessly than we all expect with some pluses and minuses.

所以仍然有很多令人感動的事情。 Net-net，我認為過度分析這一點是有危險的，因為這個行業已經習慣了這些變化，我們非常習慣這種變化，我們的經銷商現在也習慣了這種變化。我認為這將比我們所有人預期的更加無縫地發生，有一些優點和缺點。

But as Michael said earlier, we think this helps our mix up towards in '25. But some of it might start happening in '24 if the R-410A pricing is higher, and we are like forced to increase our price in conjunction. So stay tuned, lots of moving pieces, but from a product design, dealer training and truly having confidence in the transition, I think we are way ahead.

但正如邁克爾之前所說，我們認為這有助於我們在 25 年實現混合。但如果 R​​-410A 定價更高，其中一些可能會在 24 年開始發生，而我們就像被迫一起提高價格。因此，請繼續關注，有很多令人感動的事情，但從產品設計、經銷商培訓和對轉型的真正信心來看，我認為我們遙遙領先。

We'll take our next question from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們將回答沃爾夫研究中心奈傑爾·科 (Nigel Coe) 提出的下一個問題。

So I guess, beating a dead horse here, but this R-454B transition. Investment spending, how does that sort of shake out through the next couple of years? I mean you talked about investment spend this year. How does that look into next year? Clearly, you don't know the mix impact that's going to be positive. But is -- from your understanding, is this an installation deadline? Or is it a production deadline? And do you think there's going to be any sort of channel impact as we transition to this new refrigerant.

所以我想，R-454B 的過渡是死馬。投資支出，未來幾年的走勢如何？我的意思是你談到了今年的投資支出。明年的情況如何？顯然，您不知道這將產生積極的綜合影響。但根據您的理解，這是安裝截止日期嗎？還是生產截止日期？您認為當我們過渡到這種新型製冷劑時，會對渠道產生任何影響嗎？

Yes. I think this will be a situation where maybe a little bit different than the larger transitions we've had in the past, going back to the 10 to 13 SEER transition, which was traumatic for the industry. I don't think that's going to be anywhere near this as Alok mentioned, probably a little bit more seamless.

是的。我認為這種情況可能與我們過去經歷的較大轉變略有不同，回到 10 到 13 SEER 的轉變，這對行業來說是一個創傷。我認為這不會像 Alok 提到的那樣接近，可能會更加無縫一些。

So we'll just play it out the way it is, once again, we're in great shape. We typically do very well during these transitions because we're on the leading edge of innovation. This requires a significant investment. $50 million this year, probably $50 million next year to prepare being able to factor and processes, et cetera, to make the appropriate investments. And we've made some of those investments already. And as Alok mentioned, are ahead of things.

所以我們就按原樣打球，我們再次處於良好狀態。我們通常在這些轉型過程中做得很好，因為我們處於創新的前沿。這需要大量投資。今年 5000 萬美元，明年可能 5000 萬美元，用於準備能夠進行保理和處理等，以進行適當的投資。我們已經進行了其中一些投資。正如阿洛克所說，我們走在了前面。

This usually creates opportunities for us. There's typically 1 or 2 competitors that stumble, and they lease some share on the Street. So once again, we're well positioned for this transition. We're excited about what lies in front of us. And we typically win when these things come to fruition. So we're excited about what this brings forward to us.

這通常會為我們創造機會。通常會有一兩個競爭對手陷入困境，他們在華爾街租下了一些份額。因此，我們再次為這一轉變做好了準備。我們對眼前的一切感到興奮。當這些事情實現時，我們通常會獲勝。因此，我們對這給我們帶來的好處感到興奮。

And Nigel, just to add to that, it's a manufacturing date transition. But as Joe said, we don't expect significant inventory burn because the 410 is more expensive next year, the delta between a 2024 price and a 2025 price might be just like a normal price difference year-over-year. And I just don't think that's going to make a meaningful difference toward dealers' economic calculations.

奈傑爾，補充一點，這是生產日期的轉變。但正如喬所說，我們預計庫存不會大幅消耗，因為明年 410 的價格會更高，2024 年價格和 2025 年價格之間的差值可能就像正常的同比價格差異一樣。我只是認為這不會對經銷商的經濟計算產生有意義的影響。

I was just wondering, are contractors as excited as you are about using this flammable refrigerants. It seems like there was definitely some contractors out there that might be pushing the 410A next year to customers just on that basis alone.

我只是想知道，承包商是否像您一樣對使用這種易燃製冷劑感到興奮。似乎肯定有一些承包商明年可能會僅僅以此為基礎向客戶推銷 410A。

There might be, and we have 10,000 dealers plus more in U.S. and we can't control. But I think overall, I think the flammability concerns a little overblown. I mean if you take a candle and blow the refrigerant on it, the candle extinguishes versus catch on fire. So this is not as flammable as like some people might fear. We have done lots of internal testing and the safety mechanisms are solid. So I think from that perspective, I believe majority of the contractors will come along with us to say, hey, this is a safe product. This is a good product, and we'll follow the rules and make the transition seamless.

可能有，我們在美國有 10,000 家經銷商，甚至更多，我們無法控制。但我認為總體而言，我認為對可燃性的擔憂有點誇大了。我的意思是，如果你拿一根蠟燭並向其吹製冷劑，蠟燭就會熄滅而不是著火。所以這並不像有些人擔心的那麼易燃。我們做了很多內部測試，安全機制很可靠。所以我認為從這個角度來看，我相信大多數承包商都會和我們一起說，嘿，這是一個安全的產品。這是一個很好的產品，我們將遵守規則並實現無縫過渡。

Okay. I appreciate that, Alok. And so a quick one, just to clarify the distribution network expansion. Is that primarily Lennox store expansions? Or are you looking at -- or do you think it's been more on the independent channels?

好的。我很感激，阿洛克。快速的介紹一下，只是為了澄清分銷網絡的擴展。這主要是倫諾克斯商店的擴張嗎？或者你在看——或者你認為更多的是在獨立頻道上？

It's both. I think the way we look at it is we are underpenetrated in both. On our stores, our recent focus is more around increasing output through the current stores and putting more products through that, but we are still geographically underpenetrated in North America. And on independent distributors, of course, we have a very low share. So both of those, I think we have significant expansion opportunities.

兩者都是。我認為我們看待這個問題的方式是我們在這兩方面都還不夠深入。在我們的商店中，我們最近的重點更多地是通過現有商店增加產量並通過現有商店投放更多產品，但我們在北美的地理滲透率仍然不足。當然，在獨立分銷商方面，我們的份額非常低。因此，我認為我們都有重大的擴張機會。

Once we get through our self-help, once we get through our growth acceleration and put the right amount of feet on the street and the process behind that. We're super excited about the expansion phase.

一旦我們完成了自助，一旦我們完成了成長加速並在街上投入了適量的腳步以及其背後的過程。我們對擴展階段感到非常興奮。

We'll take our next question from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通史蒂夫·圖薩的下一個問題。

So just on the commercial side, so the -- I know there's like differences in comps and things like that, but Carrier reported very, very strong volume. You guys, I think, were up like 3%. You mentioned you still have yet to reenter emergency replacement. But where do you think the differences between your growth rate and theirs and anything vertical specific to talk about?

因此，就商業方面而言，我知道在比較和類似方面存在差異，但運營商報告的銷量非常非常強勁。我認為你們上漲了 3% 左右。你提到你還沒有重新進入緊急替換。但您認為您的增長率與他們的增長率之間的差異在哪裡，以及有什麼垂直方面的具體內容可以討論嗎？

Steve, this is Michael. Yes. So we saw total volumes up 4%. But if you look at the rooftop production out of our Stuttgart factory. That was up significantly more. So we're pleased to see that side of it. We had some obviously offsets in different products, but definitely some growth more than the 4% coming out of our Stuttgart factory. A lot of that growth that we saw on the rooftops was on the national accounts, and it was really broad-based across retail and restaurants and distributions that really saw that broad-based growth.

史蒂夫，這是邁克爾。是的。所以我們看到總銷量增長了 4%。但如果你看看我們斯圖加特工廠的屋頂生產。漲幅明顯更大。所以我們很高興看到它的這一面。我們在不同的產品上有一些明顯的抵消，但肯定比我們斯圖加特工廠的 4% 增長要高。我們在屋頂上看到的大部分增長都體現在國民賬戶上，而且零售業、餐館和分銷業的增長確實具有廣泛的基礎，確實看到了廣泛的增長。

From an emergency replacement, although it's small, we did see a little bit of growth in the quarter, but still very small. So it's a good start to that journey as we move back into that space.

從緊急替換來看，雖然規模很小，但我們確實在本季度看到了一點增長，但仍然很小。因此，當我們回到那個空間時，這是一個良好的開始。

And I think I would start -- also say that, hey, congratulations to the Carrier team. I haven't digested the earnings, but great growth for them, and we are excited that the industry growth trend continues, and the industry overall is in good shape. I think that bodes well for us and for them.

我想我會開始 - 也說，嘿，祝賀開利團隊。我還沒有消化盈利，但他們有很大的增長，我們很高興行業增長趨勢仍在繼續，行業整體狀況良好。我認為這對我們和他們來說都是好兆頭。

We still remain production-constrained where we are producing less than we confirmed. So excited about continued output increase in Stuttgart and our new factory in Mexico.

我們的產量仍然受到限制，產量低於我們確認的產量。對斯圖加特和墨西哥新工廠產量的持續增加感到非常興奮。

And then just on this, since you're kind of delving into the technology here, you talked about it not being that big of a change, I think, in December, you said you now have -- I mean, you just chose your refrigerant, I guess, is what you're saying. What's the source of confidence that your technology is so much better than the other guys?

然後就這一點，由於您正在深入研究這裡的技術，您談到這並不是那麼大的變化，我想，在 12 月，您說您現在已經 - 我的意思是，您只是選擇了您的我猜，你說的就是製冷劑。你的技術比其他人好得多的信心來源是什麼？

And also, why do you think you're entitled to share gains? In the last couple of years, it's been very choppy, obviously, with what's happened. A little bit of a different approach on initiatives relative to what the former CEO did over a 10-year period, a little bit different of a market like what -- where do you think your product is so differentiated versus the other guys?

另外，您為什麼認為您有權分享收益？在過去的幾年裡，顯然，所發生的事情非常不穩定。與前首席執行官在 10 年期間所做的事情相比，在舉措上有一點不同，市場也有一點不同——你認為你的產品與其他公司相比在哪裡如此與眾不同？

Sure. A couple of things, right? First of all, for the past 5 years, as I said, Lennox was in a very difficult spot because our supply chain was more constrained versus others because we are more reliant on China than others. The tornadoes severely crimped our manufacturing ability, especially for the premium products. And I think the transition on leadership and CEO that obviously, while it doesn't have a direct impact, had lots of indirect impacts.

當然。有幾件事，對吧？首先，正如我所說，在過去的五年裡，倫諾克斯處於一個非常困難的境地，因為我們的供應鏈比其他國家更受限制，因為我們比其他國家更依賴中國。龍捲風嚴重影響了我們的製造能力，特別是優質產品的製造能力。我認為領導層和首席執行官的過渡顯然雖然沒有直接影響，但產生了很多間接影響。

So -- but that's not important right now. What's more important is your question of why are we confident. I think our direct-to-dealer network is something that we have under leveraged, but have done a great job building up. So I think that's -- the investment that still needs to continue delivering results for a while.

所以——但現在這並不重要。更重要的是你問我們為什麼有信心。我認為我們的直接經銷商網絡尚未充分利用，但在建設方面做得很好。所以我認為，這種投資仍需要在一段時間內繼續產生成果。

Technology-wise, I mean, even in the current SEER transition, there was a lot of noise about compatibility of indoor units versus the outdoor units. A lot of new homebuilders they put indoor units first and then they put outdoor units. During the year transition, they have to go rip out indoor units if the indoor units were the older SEER compatible and outdoor units were new SEER. Ours' didn't have to make that difference because our indoor units were compatible both with the new SEER and the old SEER.

我的意思是，就技術而言，即使在當前的 SEER 轉型中，也存在很多關於室內機與室外機兼容性的噪音。許多新的住宅建築商首先安裝室內機，然後安裝室外機。在過渡年期間，如果室內機與舊版 SEER 兼容，而室外機與新版 SEER 兼容，則他們必須拆除室內機。我們的室內機不必造成這種差異，因為我們的室內機與新 SEER 和舊 SEER 兼容。

So the connection to the dealer we have, that helps us make those kind of choices and decisions. At the end, I can't tell you that our compressor is better than our competitive compressor because you buy it from the same place usually. But what we can tell you is our product design, our actual package and the choices we made for our dealers, that's what helps us gain share. The results would be probably more convincing than any of my answers. So let's wait a year or 2 and then we'll answer this question with numbers.

因此，我們與經銷商的聯繫可以幫助我們做出此類選擇和決定。最後，我不能告訴您我們的壓縮機比我們的競爭對手的壓縮機更好，因為您通常從同一個地方購買它。但我們可以告訴你的是我們的產品設計、我們的實際包裝以及我們為經銷商所做的選擇，這就是幫助我們獲得份額的原因。結果可能比我的任何答案都更有說服力。因此，讓我們等待一兩年，然後我們將用數字回答這個問題。

We'll take our next question from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

我們將回答 Jeff Sprague 和 Vertical Research Partners 提出的下一個問題。

Look, you probably accused us of overanalyzing stuff, but that is what we do. So I appreciate Joe's comments on reiterating kind of the investment for the transition. It sounds like you clearly know what you need to do. So I think Mike kind of left Gautam's question somewhat unanswered in terms of what's your best guess on the increase in cost or selling price to customers in 2025 on the transition?

聽著，你可能指責我們過度分析事物，但這就是我們所做的。因此，我很欣賞喬關於重申過渡投資的評論。聽起來你很清楚自己需要做什麼。因此，我認為 Mike 沒有回答 Gautam 的問題，即您對 2025 年轉型過程中向客戶的成本或銷售價格增加的最佳猜測是什麼？

I think the -- well, fair enough, I'll try and give more detail of it. Part of it is we don't know exact numbers. I can give you ranges. So there's 2 things to think about. The price increase from current prices, like 2023 to 2025, and then price increase from potential 2024 price to 2025. The reason we are hesitant to answer that question is not that we are trying to be evasive, but we don't know the 2024 pricing, which could get significantly impacted by R-410 production curtailment that's going on.

我認為——好吧，公平地說，我會嘗試提供更多細節。部分原因是我們不知道確切的數字。我可以給你範圍。所以有兩件事需要考慮。價格從目前的價格上漲，比如2023年到2025年，然後價格從2024年的潛在價格上漲到2025年。我們猶豫回答這個問題的原因不是我們試圖迴避，而是我們不知道2024年的價格定價可能會受到正在進行的 R-410 減產的重大影響。

I don't think it's going to be 20%. I just give you some ranges. I don't think it's 0% either. It's likely to be between 0% and 10%, putting everything together. And that's just going to help us all preserve our margins and pass on the cost through.

我認為不會是20%。我只是給你一些範圍。我也不認為是0%。將所有因素加在一起，可能會在 0% 到 10% 之間。這只會幫助我們所有人保持利潤並轉嫁成本。

Going back to the over analyzing, it was actually one of the research report, which says the HVAC industry has become like analyzing storms in a teacup. So I'm not -- I actually enjoyed reading all of this, and I think I've learned a lot in my one year. And I think what we have learned is that Lennox is going to win because of our direct-to-dealer network, because we need to leverage that better, because we are really focused on one thing and only one thing, and because we are able to design our products.

回到過度分析，其實是一份研究報告，說暖通空調行業已經變得像茶杯里分析風暴一樣。所以我不是——我實際上很喜歡閱讀所有這些，而且我認為我在這一年裡學到了很多東西。我認為我們了解到的是，Lennox 將會獲勝，因為我們的直接經銷商網絡，因為我們需要更好地利用這一網絡，因為我們真正專注於一件事，而且只專注於一件事，因為我們有能力設計我們的產品。

Just recently, we got the design awards, and we won more awards than others. So I think that's what I've learned more is that everything else matters, but we all do it about the same. What differentiates Lennox is what was in the last page of my presentation.

就在最近，我們獲得了設計獎，而且我們獲得的獎項比其他人多。所以我認為我學到的更多東西是，其他一切都很重要，但我們都做同樣的事情。倫諾克斯的與眾不同之處在於我演講最後一頁的內容。

Yes. That 0% to 10% is from '23 to '25 though, just to put that finer point on it? Or is it...

是的。 0% 到 10% 是從 23 到 25，只是為了更清楚地說明這一點？或者說是...

If you're not going to hold me to it, yes.

如果你不打算讓我堅持下去，是的。

Yes. And then just a separate question. I know Joe likes to kind of link and not and yet we're conservative. But I mean, realistically, guys, like you're going to be at your 2026 guide this year, right? You're going to be at the midpoint of it, roughly. So clearly, you're signaling you think there's upside to that. But also, are you in fact signaling that maybe there's heavier investment to drive growth and therefore, we shouldn't kind of extrapolate too aggressively on margins from here. Maybe just give us a little bit more context on how you're thinking about that.

是的。然後只是一個單獨的問題。我知道喬喜歡某種聯繫，但不喜歡，但我們很保守。但我的意思是，實際上，伙計們，今年你們將參加 2026 年指南，對嗎？大致上，你將處於其中點。很明顯，您正在表明您認為這樣做有好處。而且，您實際上是否表示可能需要加大投資來推動增長，因此，我們不應該對利潤率進行過於激進的推斷。也許只是給我們提供更多關於您如何看待這個問題的背景信息。

Sure. I think the reason I talked about the third phase of the transformation, which is beyond '26, is yes, there is a high chance that we will get to the '26 targets sooner. I won't commit to this year or next year because, I mean, our actions remain the same. So I think that's one.

當然。我認為我談論轉型的第三階段（即 26 年之後）的原因是，我們很有可能更快地實現 26 年的目標。我不會承諾今年或明年，因為我的意思是，我們的行動保持不變。所以我認為這是一個。

On the conservatism side, listen, there are so many things that could go wrong. And historically, it has gone wrong for us in the past. So we just want to make sure that if we are wrong, we are going to be wrong on the conservative side versus being wrong on the aggressive side.

在保守主義方面，聽著，有很多事情可能會出錯。從歷史上看，我們過去曾犯過錯誤。所以我們只是想確保，如果我們錯了，我們會在保守方面犯錯，而不是在激進方面犯錯。

On the investment questions, no, I think, I mean our current investment rate is kind of what we expect going forward. I mean CapEx will go down going forward for sure, as the second factory is the heavy lift this year. And a lot of those refrigerant change investment is happening this year and some will happen next year. So no. And some of this is also we are lapping ourselves on incentives, on much lower incentive payouts last year.

關於投資問題，不，我認為，我的意思是我們目前的投資率是我們對未來的預期。我的意思是，未來資本支出肯定會下降，因為第二家工廠是今年的重擔。許多製冷劑更換投資都在今年進行，有些將在明年進行。所以不行。其中一部分原因是我們去年的激勵支出要低得多。

Last year, our incentives were below target. This year, at least current math shows it will be above target. So that's where the corporate cost delta you see. But net-net, we are optimistic, and we hope to get to the 2026 targets sooner, but we know we'll get there to 2026, by sure.

去年，我們的激勵措施低於目標。今年，至少目前的數學顯示它將高於目標。這就是您看到的企業成本增量。但淨淨，我們很樂觀，我們希望更快地實現 2026 年的目標，但我們知道我們肯定會在 2026 年實現這一目標。

We'll take our next question from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

我們將回答諾亞·凱和奧本海默提出的下一個問題。

Maybe just to better understand the revised price/mix, EBIT outlook of $250 million benefit. You've already done $182 million, right, year-to-date. So maybe if you can help us understand the dynamics for the rest of the year. It seems like maybe a little bit less benefit in commercial because the carryover is easing, but I mean Resi is clipping along at kind of this $40 million per quarter run rate, you just implemented PI. So just help us understand that revised guide?

也許只是為了更好地了解修改後的價格/組合，息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 前景將受益 2.5 億美元。今年迄今為止，您已經賺了 1.82 億美元，對吧。也許您可以幫助我們了解今年剩餘時間的動態。看起來商業方面的收益可能會少一些，因為結轉正在緩解，但我的意思是，Resi 正在以每季度 4000 萬美元的運行速度前進，你剛剛實施了 PI。那麼只是幫助我們理解修訂後的指南嗎？

Noah, it's Michael. Yes. One of the big drivers is, as you mentioned, the carryover benefit of Commercial. So that's the odd sized difference between first half and second half. But with that said, we do have a little bit of conservativeness, as Alok said some of that would be in the price/mix category. But really, what we're focused on is the pricing excellence in Residential is new price increase that was just announced that will start to happen in the second half. And again, margins look good in the Commercial backlog. So everything looks positive for the second half on price/mix still, but guide may be a little conservative.

諾亞，是邁克爾。是的。正如您所提到的，最大的推動因素之一是商業的結轉效益。這就是上半場和下半場之間奇怪的大小差異。但話雖如此，我們確實有一點保守，正如阿洛克所說，其中一些保守是在價格/組合類別中。但實際上，我們關注的是住宅的卓越定價，這是剛剛宣布的新價格上漲，將於下半年開始發生。再次，商業積壓訂單的利潤看起來不錯。因此，下半年的價格/組合一切看起來仍然樂觀，但指導可能有點保守。

Yes. Just to double click on that, I mean how do we think about the incremental benefit of that price increase in Resi side?

是的。雙擊它，我的意思是我們如何看待 Resi 方面價格上漲的增量收益？

Yes. So in the last quarter, we raised our price/mix guide from $150 million to $175 million, the $25 million reflected that additional residential price increase. We already had in the previous $175 million guide.

是的。因此，在上個季度，我們將價格/組合指南從 1.5 億美元提高到 1.75 億美元，其中 2500 萬美元反映了住宅價格的額外上漲。我們在之前的 1.75 億美元指南中已經有了。

Okay.

好的。

So that's progressing well.

所以進展順利。

And then on the Saltillo expansion, just can you give us an update on how the timetable there looks. And then just sort of remind us or dimension for us how much that increases Commercial's revenue capacity.

然後，關於薩爾蒂約擴建項目，您能否向我們介紹一下那裡的時間表的最新情況。然後提醒我們或為我們衡量這會增加商業收入能力多少。

Sure. Yes, just before the -- 15 minutes before the call, I was with the Commercial team, congratulating them on an excellent quarter, and I saw latest video feed and pictures of the Saltillo factory construction. The ground is all prepared. We have roof going up in portions of the business. We are hiring talent, some are being redeployed from our residential factory in Saltillo. Clearly, we are well on the way of ordering equipment given some of the extended lead time.

當然。是的，就在電話會議前 15 分鐘，我和商業團隊在一起，祝賀他們取得了出色的季度業績，並且我看到了薩爾蒂約工廠建設的最新視頻和圖片。地面已經全部準備好了。我們的部分業務正在蓬勃發展。我們正在招聘人才，其中一些是從我們位於薩爾蒂約的住宅工廠重新部署的。顯然，鑑於交貨時間有所延長，我們在訂購設備方面進展順利。

So all indications are green and solid that we will be starting production end of next year. Nameplate capacity wise, over years, it could more than double our capacity. But at the same time, we're not going to put all the equipment immediately, right? We're going to get enough land and roof space to put more, but we're going to put equipment on a judicial basis.

因此，所有跡像都表明我們將於明年底開始生產。就銘牌容量而言，多年來，它可以使我們的容量增加一倍以上。但與此同時，我們不會立即放置所有設備，對嗎？我們將獲得足夠的土地和屋頂空間來放置更多，但我們將在司法基礎上放置設備。

And the last thing we want is the industry to have overcapacity on this as well. So we're going to watch out. And as Joe mentioned earlier, this would be focused around standard products shipped by the truckload, getting into the emergency replacement, where our revenue is below what it used to be and our share is just dismally low. And we have a huge opportunity to use our distribution network to increase that number. So we are very excited and all systems go there.

我們最不希望看到的是行業在這方面也出現產能過剩。所以我們要小心。正如喬之前提到的，這將集中在卡車運輸的標準產品上，進入緊急更換階段，我們的收入低於以前，我們的份額也很低。我們有巨大的機會利用我們的分銷網絡來增加這個數字。所以我們非常興奮，所有系統都在那裡。

And we'll go next to Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們將討論高盛公司的喬·里奇 (Joe Ritchie)。

So maybe just along the lines of Jeff's question earlier and just trying to think about these commercial margins. I know that it was only just a few months ago that you gave us that 19% to 21% long-term target. But first half of the year, you guys are already there and actually slightly above it. I'm just curious, like how do you kind of think about the trajectory of the margins then from here after that business, maybe even beyond 2023.

因此，也許就像傑夫之前提出的問題一樣，只是嘗試考慮這些商業利潤。我知道就在幾個月前，你們給了我們 19% 到 21% 的長期目標。但今年上半年，你們已經達到了這個水平，而且實際上略高於這個水平。我只是很好奇，你如何看待該業務之後，甚至可能到 2023 年之後的利潤軌跡。

I think our next Investor Day is going to be 2024, and we love to update you on our long-term targets. There's a lot going well, but I keep in mind that a lot could go wrong as well. I think one quarter doesn't make a trend. I mean it's a great sign of our progress. I think the team has done an excellent job, but we need to leave some room for things could slide different ways.

我認為我們的下一個投資者日將是 2024 年，我們很樂意向您通報我們的長期目標的最新情況。有很多事情進展順利，但我記住也有很多事情可能會出錯。我認為四分之一併不能形成趨勢。我的意思是，這是我們進步的一個重要標誌。我認為團隊做得非常出色，但我們需要留出一些空間，讓事情可能以不同的方式發展。

Net-net, listen, we are not doubting anything you're saying. I think we need to be cautious and not get ahead of ourselves in where we are in the journey.

Net-net，聽著，我們並不懷疑你所說的一切。我認為我們需要保持謹慎，不要在我們所處的位置上超前。

Yes. No, that's fair. And look, it's a good position to be in -- to be able to already -- be ready to update those targets. So congrats on the progress there. I guess maybe my quick follow-on question. The piece of your business, the quarter of your business that goes through independent distribution. I think you guys said it was down 20%. How much were volumes down versus the pricing that came through in that business?

是的。不，這很公平。看，現在處於一個很好的位置——已經能夠——準備好更新這些目標。所以祝賀那裡取得的進展。我想也許是我的快速後續問題。您的業務部分，即經過獨立分銷的業務季度。我想你們說過下降了 20%。與該業務的定價相比，銷量下降了多少？

Well, volume on that one is a little messy because remember, we sell a lot of coils in that business. So I think that kind of often skews the volume number for us in a negative way. But in general, I would say they were more -- they were slightly better than what you would look at on the AHRI data. I mean you guys all look at the AHRI data. So I think we did better than what you saw in the AHRI data, but slightly better.

好吧，那個卷的數量有點混亂，因為請記住，我們在該業務中銷售了很多線圈。所以我認為這通常會對我們的銷量產生負面影響。但總的來說，我想說它們比你在 AHRI 數據上看到的要好一些。我的意思是你們都看 AHRI 的數據。所以我認為我們的表現比您在 AHRI 數據中看到的要好，但略好一些。

And we will take our next question from Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

我們將接受富國銀行 Joe O'Dea 提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to just start on the Commercial manufacturing, you've sort of noted that there are still further manufacturing improvements to make in the back half of the year. Any details around that, that you could outline for us any major sort of goalposts there? And what's the time line for when you expect factory output to hit targeted levels?

我想從商業製造開始，您已經註意到今年下半年仍需進一步改進製造。您可以為我們概述一下相關的任何細節嗎？您預計工廠產量達到目標水平的時間是多少？

Sure. You did a very good question on that. Listen, when we started the year, we hardly had any production in January because we were taking some drastic improvement actions. We rationalized 65% of our SKUs. We looked at different lines and reconfigure the line to make the products that give us the best way to serve our customers. So starting from almost 0 in January until the end of the first half, we have reached progressively higher numbers and are starting to hit daily rates that are kind of consistent with what the factory used to do in the past.

當然。你對此提出了一個非常好的問題。聽著，當我們年初時，我們一月份幾乎沒有任何生產，因為我們正在採取一些重大的改進行動。我們對 65% 的 SKU 進行了合理化調整。我們研究了不同的生產線並重新配置了生產線，以生產出能夠為我們的客戶提供最佳服務方式的產品。因此，從 1 月份幾乎為 0 開始，直到上半年末，我們的數字逐漸提高，並開始達到與工廠過去的做法一致的每日費率。

I think of first half as kind of in a linear progression from 0 to getting to the rate and second half, I think that we've got to obviously maintain rate and continue driving the improvements going forward. The team is doing well there. I mean, our labor challenges are behind us. We are no longer struggling to track labor. I would say, supplier challenges are kind of 75%, 80% behind us.

我認為上半年是從 0 到達到比率的線性進展，而下半年，我認為我們必須明顯保持比率並繼續推動前進的改進。球隊在那裡表現得很好。我的意思是，我們的勞動力挑戰已經過去。我們不再費勁去追踪勞動力。我想說，供應商的挑戰已經過去了 75%、80%。

We still feel like we are playing whac-a-mole sometime, but we have done a good job at getting dual source supplier or working with our suppliers to better communicate and build the appropriate buffer and transportation. So things are going well. It could go better the way I look at it.

有時我們仍然感覺自己在玩打地鼠遊戲，但我們在獲得雙源供應商或與供應商合作方面做得很好，以更好地溝通並建立適當的緩衝區和運輸。所以事情進展順利。從我的角度來看，事情可能會進展得更好。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just circling back to the 25.3% commercial margin, how does that compare to kind of internal expectations for the quarter? And then when we think about seasonality going forward, I mean, any sort of variances to be mindful of versus typical seasonality in the back half?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後回到 25.3% 的商業利潤率，與本季度的內部預期相比如何？然後，當我們考慮未來的季節性時，我的意思是，與後半段的典型季節性相比，有哪些需要注意的差異？

Yes, I could tell you my answer, but I'll hand it over to Michael to answer the rest. Yes, listen, my expectations are always higher than the team delivers. So put that aside, like I think Michael can give you a better answer on that.

是的，我可以告訴你我的答案，但我會把剩下的交給邁克爾來回答。是的，聽著，我的期望總是高於團隊所提供的。所以把這個放在一邊，我認為邁克爾可以給你一個更好的答案。

Obviously, the speed of the recovery is a little faster than expected and a lot of this on the price/mix benefits that we're pleased to see that side of it. But it was a little better than what we had expected, mostly just because of the price/mix speed of recovery that we saw.

顯然，復甦的速度比預期要快一些，這在很大程度上體現在價格/組合優勢上，我們很高興看到這一面。但它比我們的預期要好一些，主要是因為我們看到的價格/組合復甦速度。

And then on the seasonality that you inquired about, there's always a natural choppiness in the commercial business because of a lot of its project nature. It doesn't really have the perfect seasonality that we sometimes see in our residential demand patterns. So I'll just leave that out there. Sometimes the second quarter can be a little bit more of a leading quarter for us than the third quarter, but it all depends on projects.

然後，關於您詢問的季節性，由於其很多項目性質，商業業務總是存在自然波動。它並不真正具有我們有時在住宅需求模式中看到的完美季節性。所以我就把它留在那裡。有時，第二季度對我們來說可能比第三季度更領先，但這一切都取決於項目。

But nothing non-repeat really in the quarter to be mindful of in terms of sort of comp into the back half?

但在本季度的後半段比賽中，沒有什麼真正需要注意的嗎？

No.

不。

We'll take our next question from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們將接受巴克萊銀行朱利安·米切爾的下一個問題。

For anyone overly sensitive, definitely, the tea cup comments were not meant to denigrate diligent work. In terms of, I suppose, sort of diving in on the...

對於任何過於敏感的人來說，茶杯評論絕對不是為了詆毀勤奮工作。我想，就...而言，有點深入……

Julian, I sort of enjoyed that comment, and I used that offense. I thought it was a great way to look at bigger picture, while continuing to analyze the storm in a tea cup.

朱利安，我有點喜歡這個評論，並且我使用了這個進攻。我認為這是一種很好的方式，可以在繼續分析茶杯中的風暴的同時，看到更大的圖景。

Yes, we'll see how the Resi cliff plays out, I suppose. But the -- in the very, very short term, are we sort of -- kind of it was in 2025. But are we trying to think about Resi HVAC volumes in your guide, you're assuming sort of down low double-digit third quarter and then down sort of low singles in the fourth quarter. Is that the way to think about it year-on-year?

是的，我想我們會看看雷西懸崖的結局如何。但是，從非常非常短期的角度來看，我們是在 2025 年。但是我們是否嘗試在您的指南中考慮 Resi HVAC 容量，您假設是低兩位數第三季度，然後在第四季度下降了一些低單打。這是逐年思考的方式嗎？

On the indirect side, maybe, but no, not on the overall basis, our volumes are not down that much. And I know if you look at the current bridge and we showed 12% on the Resi side, Julian. And you got to keep in mind, that's probably the worst that you would see during the year. As we go toward Q3, we think the number just gets better from there on.

從間接角度來看，也許是這樣，但不，總體而言，我們的銷量並沒有下降那麼多。我知道，如果你看看現在的橋，我們會發現 Resi 這邊有 12% 的優勢，朱利安。你必須記住，這可能是你今年會看到的最糟糕的情況。當我們進入第三季度時，我們認為這個數字從那時起就會變得更好。

Okay. So even with the destocking in Q3, it's still a narrower year-on-year decline then?

好的。那麼即使第三季度去庫存了，那麼同比降幅仍然收窄嗎？

Exactly, exactly. So I think some destocking start happening in Q3, very little. And we do think destocking is decelerating, as we mentioned in the comment. So I would look at that number being much lower in Q3 and then Q4.

完全正確。所以我認為第三季度開始出現一些去庫存的情況，但幅度很小。正如我們在評論中提到的，我們確實認為去庫存正在減速。所以我認為這個數字在第三季度和第四季度要低得多。

That's perfect. And then I just wanted to put a finer point on the core sales guide of sort of up 3% total company for the year. Did you clarify the price/mix tailwind within that? I see the price/mix EBIT guided benefit, but just wondered if you clarified any revenue benefit from price/mix in that sales guide?

那很完美。然後我只是想更詳細地闡述今年公司總銷售額增長 3% 的核心銷售指南。您是否澄清了其中的價格/組合順風？我看到了價格/組合息稅前利潤指導收益，但只是想知道您是否在該銷售指南中澄清了價格/組合帶來的任何收入收益？

We did not. I think a lot of that is -- there are so many different types of mix in there. I mean we look at channel mix, we look at products like equipment versus parts versus coil. We look at, obviously, mix based on the SEER. We did say that about half of the mix benefit in residential was because of SEER and the other half was all the other factors in there. So still a lot of uncertainty out there, but we are pleased with where we are in July.

我們沒有。我認為其中很多是——裡面有很多不同類型的混合。我的意思是，我們著眼於渠道組合，我們著眼於設備、零件、線圈等產品。顯然，我們是根據 SEER 來進行混合的。我們確實說過，住宅領域的混合效益中約有一半是由於 SEER，另一半是其中的所有其他因素。因此，仍然存在很多不確定性，但我們對 7 月份的情況感到滿意。

That's helpful. And one last quick one. Commercial backlog, how do you see that moving from here? I understand that lead times should normalize. Does that put much pressure on the backlog or the end markets are sort of strong enough it should stay stable?

這很有幫助。最後一個快點。商業積壓，您如何看待今後的發展？我知道交貨時間應該正常化。這是否會給積壓帶來很大壓力，或者終端市場是否足夠強勁，應該保持穩定？

Julian, this is Michael. Yes. So we saw our lead times improved 50%, and obviously, our backlog didn't decline that much. So order rates continue to remain strong. Everything we see on plan, replacement for national accounts still remains strong. So really no indication yet of a backlog decline except for just because of lead times are shortening.

朱利安，這是邁克爾。是的。因此，我們發現交貨時間縮短了 50%，而且顯然，我們的積壓訂單並沒有減少那麼多。因此訂單率繼續保持強勁。我們在計劃中看到的一切，國民賬戶的替代仍然強勁。因此，除了交貨時間縮短之外，實際上還沒有任何跡象表明積壓情況有所下降。

Thank you for joining us today. Since there are no further questions, this will conclude Lennox's Second Quarter Conference Call. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

感謝您今天加入我們。由於沒有其他問題，倫諾克斯第二季度電話會議將結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。