Lennar Corp (LEN) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Lennar's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I will now turn the call over to Alexandra Lumpkin for the briefing of the forward-looking statement.

歡迎參加 Lennar 第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的會議正在錄製中。如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。我現在將把電話轉給亞歷山德拉·倫普金（Alexandra Lumpkin），以簡要介紹前瞻性聲明。

Thank you, and good morning. Today's conference call may include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding Lennar's business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies and prospects. Forward-looking statements represent only Lennar's estimates on the date of this conference call and are not intended to give any assurance as to actual future results.

謝謝你，早上好。今天的電話會議可能包括前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Lennar 的業務、財務狀況、運營結果、現金流、戰略和前景的陳述。前瞻性陳述僅代表 Lennar 在本次電話會議當日的估計，並不旨在對未來的實際結果作出任何保證。

Because forward-looking statements relate to matters that have not yet occurred, these statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could affect future results and may cause Lennar's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements.

由於前瞻性陳述涉及尚未發生的事項，因此這些陳述本身就存在風險和不確定性。許多因素可能會影響未來的結果，並可能導致 Lennar 的實際活動或結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的活動和結果存在重大差異。

These factors include those described in yesterday's press release and our SEC filings, including those under the caption Risk Factors contained in Lennar's annual report on Form 10-K most recently filed with the SEC. Please note that Lennar assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

這些因素包括昨天的新聞稿和我們提交給 SEC 的文件中所述的因素，包括 Lennar 最近提交給 SEC 的 10-K 表格年度報告中標題為風險因素的因素。請注意，Lennar 不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

I would like to introduce your host, Mr. Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman. Sir, you may begin.

我想介紹一下您的主持人，執行主席斯圖爾特·米勒先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Very good. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. This morning, I'm here in Miami, joined by Diane Bessette, our Chief Financial Officer; David Collins, our Controller and Vice President; and of course, Alex, who you just heard from. Jon Jaffe and Rick Beckwitt, our Co-CEOs and Co-Presidents, are on the line also, but they will be participating remotely for the Q&A.

很好。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們。今天早上，我在邁阿密，我們的首席財務官黛安·貝塞特 (Diane Bessette) 也來了；我們的財務總監兼副總裁 David Collins；當然還有 Alex，你剛剛聽到的消息。我們的聯席 CEO 和聯席總裁 Jon Jaffe 和 Rick Beckwitt 也在線，但他們將遠程參與問答環節。

As usual, I'm going to give a macro overview and strategic Lennar plan. After my introductory remarks, Rick is going to talk about our markets around the country. Jon will update on supply chain, construction costs, land strategy. And as usual, Diane will give a detailed financial highlight. And we'll give some rough boundaries for the fourth quarter to assist in go-forward thinking and modeling. And then we'll answer as many questions as we can. And as usual, please limit to one question and one followup.

像往常一樣，我將給出宏觀概述和 Lennar 戰略計劃。在我的介紹性發言之後，Rick 將談論我們在全國的市場。 Jon 將更新供應鏈、建設成本、土地戰略。和往常一樣，黛安將給出詳細的財務亮點。我們將為第四季度提供一些粗略的界限，以幫助進行前瞻性思考和建模。然後我們將盡可能多地回答問題。和往常一樣，請限制在一個問題和一個跟進。

So let me begin and start by saying that once again, the Lennar team has turned in an excellent third quarter results, which continues to enhance our positioning for the evolving market conditions. Throughout our third quarter, we continue to manage the still constrained supply chain and workforce and delivered over 17,200 homes with a gross margin of 29.2% and a net margin of 23.5%.

因此，讓我首先要說的是，Lennar 團隊再次取得了出色的第三季度業績，這繼續增強了我們對不斷變化的市場條件的定位。在整個第三季度，我們繼續管理仍然受限的供應鍊和勞動力，交付了超過 17,200 套房屋，毛利率為 29.2%，淨利潤率為 23.5%。

These deliveries continue to drive very strong cash flow and bottom line earnings as we continue to refine our already efficient operations with SG&A of 5.8% or a 120 basis point improvement over last year. With strong bottom line earnings of $1.47 billion or $5.03 per diluted share driving strong cash flow, we've continued to fortify our balance sheet. After paying down $575 million of maturing senior debt without replacement, we ended the quarter with $1.3 billion of cash, nothing drawn on our revolver and a 15% debt to total capitalization ratio as compared to 21.2% last year.

這些交付繼續推動非常強勁的現金流和底線收益，因為我們繼續完善我們已經高效的運營，SG&A 為 5.8%，或比去年提高 120 個基點。憑藉強勁的 14.7 億美元或每股攤薄收益 5.03 美元推動強勁的現金流，我們繼續鞏固我們的資產負債表。在償還了 5.75 億美元的到期優先債務後，我們以 13 億美元的現金結束了本季度，我們的左輪手槍沒有動用，債務與總資本化比率為 15%，而去年為 21.2%。

As a matter of careful capital allocation this quarter, given current market conditions, we chose not to repurchase stock in favor of early retirement of debt. As we've continued to drive strong closings and performance, we are well prepared to handle the current market conditions. In addition to the well-documented supply chain constraints and limited workforce slowing production, housing has now been considerably impacted by the more than doubling of mortgage rates over the past months and therefore, the doubling of monthly payment costs and reduction of housing affordability.

作為本季度謹慎資本配置的問題，鑑於當前的市場狀況，我們選擇不回購股票以支持提前償還債務。隨著我們繼續推動強勁的收盤和業績，我們已做好充分準備應對當前的市場狀況。除了有據可查的供應鏈限制和有限的勞動力減緩生產之外，住房現在還受到過去幾個月抵押貸款利率翻倍以上的影響，因此每月支付成本翻倍和住房負擔能力下降。

The housing market has continued to weaken as expected in response to the Fed's too late but now very rapid and aggressive reaction to inflation. Homebuilding finds itself once again at the forefront of all that is happening in the economy, and the Fed's use of its interest rate tool to curtail inflation is certainly having the desired effect on the for-sale housing market.

由於美聯儲為時已晚但現在非常迅速和激進的通脹反應，房地產市場繼續走弱，正如預期的那樣。房屋建築再次處於經濟中發生的所有事情的最前沿，美聯儲使用其利率工具來抑制通脹無疑對待售房屋市場產生了預期的影響。

The market is now adjusting. The interest rate movements were very sudden and adjusted very quickly, and that suddenness has always led to a pullback in housing demand. Part of the pullback is driven by simple affordability, and part of the pullback is driven by the psychology of the sudden and aggressive interest rate hike causing either monthly payments figure shock or a sense of having missed the boat.

現在市場正在調整。利率變動非常突然，調整非常迅速，而這種突然性總是導致住房需求回落。部分回調是由簡單的負擔能力驅動的，部分回調是由突然而激進的加息心理驅動的，導致每月支付數字震驚或錯失良機。

The Fed Chair's additional increase of 75 basis points of the Fed funds rate yesterday, together with an articulated determination to do more, suggests that even more challenges lie ahead. While demand has cooled at once high price -- at once high pricing level, demand for shelter still exists where price intersects with current interest rates to produce an affordable monthly payment.

美聯儲主席昨天將聯邦基金利率再上調 75 個基點，並明確表示要採取更多行動，這表明未來面臨更多挑戰。儘管需求一度以高價降溫 - 一度高價，但在價格與當前利率相交以產生負擔得起的每月付款的地方，對住房的需求仍然存在。

There is still a housing shortage across the country, especially workforce housing, and household formation has continued to rise. There's still very limited inventory, and there's very little exposure to traditional inventory overhangs like foreclosures and speculators.

全國仍然存在住房短缺，特別是勞動力住房，家庭形成持續增加。庫存仍然非常有限，而且像止贖和投機者這樣的傳統庫存過剩的風險也很小。

Additionally, buyers are still seeking shelter from inflationary pressures on rentals as scarce rentals and increased demand from those who would otherwise purchase drive and keep rents higher. As we bring prices down and incentives up, demand is still there. And these fundamentals give us assurance that while there is short- and medium-term reconciliation, the long-term prospects for housing continue to be strong.

此外，由於租金稀缺以及那些原本會購買的人的需求增加，購房者仍在尋求租金通脹壓力的庇護，從而推動租金上漲。隨著我們降低價格和提高激勵措施，需求仍然存在。這些基本面讓我們確信，儘管存在短期和中期和解，但住房的長期前景仍然強勁。

Demand remains reasonably strong at adjusted prices as buyers still have jobs as well as down payments and have attractive credit scores and can qualify. With higher rates, prices must be adjusted downward in incentives used to find the market or sales just drop off.

在調整後的價格下，需求仍然相當強勁，因為買家仍然有工作和首付，並且具有有吸引力的信用評分並且有資格。隨著利率的提高，價格必須下調，以用於尋找市場或銷售量下降的激勵措施。

Accordingly, we have carefully managed sales price and/or pace through the third quarter exactly as we said we would last quarter. Although our sales are down 12% from last year's levels, we have focused our management's attention on finding pricing levels that attract demand.

因此，我們在第三季度仔細管理了銷售價格和/或步伐，正如我們上個季度所說的那樣。儘管我們的銷售額比去年下降了 12%，但我們將管理層的注意力集中在尋找能夠吸引需求的定價水平上。

Each market is different. In as much as it is an art and not a science, our efforts have slightly lagged our goal of matching our sales pace with our start pace, but we feel certain that we will find pricing and accelerate that pace in the near future.

每個市場都不一樣。儘管它是一門藝術而不是一門科學，但我們的努力略微落後於我們將銷售速度與我們的起步速度相匹配的目標，但我們確信我們會在不久的將來找到定價並加快這一速度。

In a few minutes, Rick is going to give a more detailed overall market review that will give a more comprehensive snapshot of what we've seen in our markets across the country. Along with bringing home sales price down, we are also laser-focused on bringing down production costs as well. We are working with our vast network of trade partners to recognize that the world has changed, and we all have to work together to keep the machine working.

幾分鐘後，瑞克將給出更詳細的整體市場回顧，這將更全面地了解我們在全國市場上看到的情況。除了降低房屋銷售價格外，我們還專注於降低生產成本。我們正在與龐大的貿易夥伴網絡合作，以認識到世界已經發生了變化，我們都必須共同努力以保持機器運轉。

In fact, last night, I returned from a 2-day extraordinary supply chain conference that was hosted by our purchasing leadership group, led by Kemp Gillis. Trade partners and Lennar division leaders convened to work together to attack costs, find efficiencies and adjust to current market conditions. Rick and Jon will drive continued and focused attention on this critical initiative.

事實上，昨晚，我參加了由 Kemp Gillis 領導的採購領導小組主辦的為期 2 天的特別供應鏈會議。貿易夥伴和 Lennar 部門的領導者齊聚一堂，共同降低成本、提高效率並適應當前的市場狀況。 Rick 和 Jon 將推動對這一關鍵舉措的持續關注。

And as the market recalibrates, land costs will have to adjust as well. Accordingly, we are reviewing and re-underwriting every land deal in our pipeline to the current market conditions. In time, new land deals will have different pricing that will be properly sized to the home sales prices.

隨著市場的重新調整，土地成本也必須調整。因此，我們正在審查和重新承保我們管道中的每筆土地交易，以適應當前的市場狀況。隨著時間的推移，新的土地交易將有不同的定價，這些定價將與房屋銷售價格相匹配。

Overall, these are the trends as we see them. And while we can choose to fight against the trends, the reality is that the market has been changing, and we are getting ahead of it by making all necessary adjustments.

總的來說，這些是我們看到的趨勢。雖然我們可以選擇與趨勢作鬥爭，但現實是市場一直在變化，我們通過進行所有必要的調整來領先於它。

Last quarter, we laid out our simple strategy playbook going forward. Let me review and add a few items. We're going to keep it simple and focused and adhere to this core strategy.

上個季度，我們制定了簡單的戰略手冊。讓我回顧並添加一些項目。我們將保持簡單和專注，並堅持這一核心戰略。

First, as I said last quarter, we're going to continue to sell homes, adjust pricing to market conditions and maintain reasonable volume. We have discussed over the past years that we have a strong -- that we have a housing shortage across the country. We will continue to build even as prices adjust in order to fill that shortfall and provide much-needed workforce housing.

首先，正如我上個季度所說，我們將繼續出售房屋，根據市場情況調整價格並保持合理的數量。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經討論過我們有一個強大的——我們在全國范圍內都有住房短缺。即使價格調整，我們仍將繼續建設，以填補這一缺口並提供急需的勞動力住房。

As we have noted many times in the past, whether the market is improving or declining, we employ our dynamic pricing model week by week to price product to current market conditions in order to maximize pricing and margin while we maintain a very carefully and limited inventory level. As the market moves, that is how we will continue to be responsive.

正如我們過去多次指出的那樣，無論市場是好轉還是下滑，我們每週都會採用動態定價模型來根據當前市場條件對產品進行定價，以最大限度地提高定價和利潤，同時保持非常謹慎和有限的庫存等級。隨著市場的變化，這就是我們將繼續做出響應的方式。

Second, we are going to work with our trade partners, as I've said, to rightsize our cost structure to current market conditions as well.

其次，正如我所說，我們將與我們的貿易夥伴合作，調整我們的成本結構以適應當前的市場條件。

Third, we will and have sharpened our attention on land acquisitions. We are being extremely selective on new land acquisitions and new communities. We have rereviewed and re-underwritten every land deal in our pipeline, and we are re-underwriting to current market conditions.

第三，我們將並且已經加強了對土地徵用的關注。我們對新的土地收購和新社區非常挑剔。我們已經重新審查並重新承銷了我們管道中的每筆土地交易，並且我們正在根據當前的市場狀況進行重新承銷。

Capital allocation is being micromanaged as every dollar invested in land must compete against repurchasing our own stock as we seek to maximize total shareholder value and return. In sync with selling homes, we will continue to improve our cost of doing business by focusing on and reducing SG&A. We have seen quarter-over-quarter improvement in our SG&A over the past years. And we expect to drive efficiencies through technology and process improvement to offset market adjustments where possible while we leverage our extraordinary management team across the country.

資本分配正在微觀管理，因為在我們尋求最大化股東總價值和回報時，投資於土地的每一美元都必須與回購我們自己的股票競爭。在出售房屋的同時，我們將繼續通過關注和減少 SG&A 來提高我們的業務成本。在過去的幾年裡，我們的 SG&A 比上一季度有所改善。我們希望通過技術和流程改進來提高效率，以在可能的情況下抵消市場調整，同時我們在全國范圍內利用我們非凡的管理團隊。

Next, we will maintain tight inventory control. We are aware that our inventory levels are up 20% year-over-year. This increase is mostly a function of growth, supply chain dysfunction and expanded cycle time. As our growth rate is reduced to 0 and our cycle times revert to normal, our inventory should shrink and should generate sizable cash flow in the future. Our commitment to sales pace will ensure that we will not create standing inventory in its place.

接下來，我們將保持嚴格的庫存控制。我們知道我們的庫存水平同比增長 20%。這種增長主要是增長、供應鏈功能障礙和周期時間延長的函數。隨著我們的增長率降至 0 並且我們的周期時間恢復正常，我們的庫存應該會減少，並且應該會在未來產生可觀的現金流。我們對銷售速度的承諾將確保我們不會在其位置創建常備庫存。

Next, we'll continue to focus on cash flow and bottom line to protect and enhance our already extraordinary balance sheet. And finally, we will conclude our long-planned and awaited spin-off by year-end. Recent back-and-forth questions with the SEC could push the final date by a month or so, but Quarterra will be listed very soon. Of course, prior to the spin, we will have a comprehensive company overview and conference call to introduce the new management team and to further detail the financial elements of the company. Stay tuned.

接下來，我們將繼續關注現金流和底線，以保護和增強我們已經非凡的資產負債表。最後，我們將在年底前結束我們計劃已久且期待已久的分拆。最近與 SEC 的來回提問可能會將最終日期推遲一個月左右，但 Quarterra 很快就會上市。當然，在分拆之前，我們將進行全面的公司概述和電話會議，以介紹新的管理團隊並進一步詳細說明公司的財務要素。敬請關注。

As we have continued to refine and finalize the 3 verticals of our spin company, we will spin a mature asset management company into the public market along with billions of dollars of assets under management that we previously held on Lennar's books. Lennar will be a pure-play homebuilding company with a simple mandate to build and sell homes that delight our customers while we drive and maximize shareholder value.

隨著我們不斷完善和完善我們的旋轉公司的三個垂直領域，我們將把一家成熟的資產管理公司連同我們之前在 Lennar 賬面上持有的數十億美元的管理資產一起推向公開市場。 Lennar 將成為一家純粹的住宅建築公司，其任務很簡單，即建造和銷售令客戶滿意的住宅，同時我們推動並最大化股東價值。

The final spin of our new company, Quarterra, will trade under the stock symbol Q, and we'll have, as noted before, it will be an asset-light asset management business that will have a limited balance sheet. We are very excited about the prospects for Quarterra as this is our second spin in our history, and we have great confidence for its prospects for the future.

我們的新公司 Quarterra 的最後一次旋轉將以股票代碼 Q 交易，如前所述，我們將擁有資產負債表有限的輕資產資產管理業務。我們對 Quarterra 的前景感到非常興奮，因為這是我們歷史上的第二次旋轉，我們對其未來的前景充滿信心。

So let me conclude by saying that while the market is shifting and adjusting to a new higher interest rate environment, we at Lennar are prepared. We have been here before, and we have navigated adversity.

因此，讓我最後說，雖然市場正在轉變並適應新的更高利率環境，但我們 Lennar 已做好準備。我們以前來過這裡，我們已經度過了逆境。

We have a seasoned team that knows exactly what to do and how to do it. Every member of the Lennar management team is fully aligned and working in a coordinated way. We are extremely well positioned financially, organizationally and technologically to thrive and to succeed in these conditions.

我們有一支經驗豐富的團隊，他們確切地知道該做什麼以及如何去做。 Lennar 管理團隊的每一位成員都完全一致，並以協調的方式工作。我們在財務、組織和技術上都處於非常有利的位置，可以在這些條件下蓬勃發展並取得成功。

We recognize that interest rates are rising, inflation continues to be a legitimate threat and important parts of the economy are slowing. We know that the Fed is determined to curtail inflation, and this will take some time. But we also know how to adjust to the market -- to these market changes, and we are making those adjustments.

我們認識到利率正在上升，通貨膨脹仍然是一個合理的威脅，經濟的重要部分正在放緩。我們知道美聯儲決心抑制通脹，這需要一些時間。但我們也知道如何適應市場——適應這些市場變化，我們正在做出這些調整。

As we look to the remainder of 2022, we recognize there are challenges in the market that we must carefully regard, expect that we will meet the challenges and that we will continue to adjust to maximize opportunity and drive Lennar into an ever better future.

展望 2022 年剩餘時間，我們認識到市場中存在我們必須仔細考慮的挑戰，並期望我們能夠迎接挑戰，並且我們將繼續調整以最大限度地利用機會並推動 Lennar 走向更美好的未來。

With that, let me turn over to Rick.

有了這個，讓我轉向里克。

Thanks, Stuart. As you can tell from Stuart's opening comments, the overall housing market has been reacting to significant increases in mortgage rates, continued inflation and a volatile stock market, all of which has impacted affordability and homebuyer confidence. While we continue to have some strong markets, in our more challenging areas, we've had to adjust prices and increase incentives to regain sales momentum.

謝謝，斯圖爾特。從 Stuart 的開場評論可以看出，整個房地產市場一直在對抵押貸款利率的顯著上升、持續的通貨膨脹和動蕩的股市做出反應，所有這些都影響了負擔能力和購房者的信心。雖然我們繼續擁有一些強勁的市場，但在我們更具挑戰性的領域，我們不得不調整價格並增加激勵措施以恢復銷售勢頭。

Our sales strategy has been to find the market clearing price for each of our homes on a community-by-community basis as quickly as possible and price our homes accordingly. This has required a detailed understanding of traffic trends, inventory levels, community and product-specific pricing, financing programs and buyer sentiment.

我們的銷售策略一直是盡快在逐個社區的基礎上找到我們每棟房屋的市場清算價格，並相應地為我們的房屋定價。這需要詳細了解流量趨勢、庫存水平、社區和產品特定定價、融資計劃和買家情緒。

During the third quarter, our new sales orders declined by 12% from the prior year on a 1% lower year-over-year community count. While our cancellation rate and sales incentives picked up during the quarter, our sales orders and sales pace per community increased sequentially each month as we successfully executed our pricing strategy in more and more markets.

第三季度，我們的新銷售訂單同比下降 12%，社區數量同比下降 1%。雖然本季度我們的取消率和銷售激勵措施有所回升，但隨著我們在越來越多的市場成功執行我們的定價策略，我們的每個社區的銷售訂單和銷售速度每個月都在環比增長。

To put some color on this, our sales pace per community in June, July and August was 3.7, 3.9 and 4.5, respectively for the quarter. To achieve this, we lowered our base new order sales price and increased sales incentives in many communities.

為了說明這一點，我們在 6 月、7 月和 8 月每個社區的銷售速度分別為該季度的 3.7、3.9 和 4.5。為實現這一目標，我們降低了基本新訂單銷售價格，並在許多社區增加了銷售激勵措施。

On a company-wide basis, new sales order incentives increased during the quarter from 2.3% in June to 6% in August and varied significantly by market and community. Based on these combined adjustments, our new net order sales price declined 9% sequentially from the second quarter but was up 1% from the prior year.

在全公司範圍內，本季度新的銷售訂單激勵從 6 月的 2.3% 增加到 8 月的 6%，並且因市場和社區而異。基於這些綜合調整，我們的新訂單淨銷售價格比第二季度環比下降 9%，但比去年同期增長 1%。

This pricing strategy produced enough new gross sales to offset cancellations company-wide as our third quarter cancellation rate was 21%, which is slightly above our historical average. Our pricing strategy has continued to work successfully in September. It gives us confidence in our new sales orders guidance for the fourth quarter.

由於我們第三季度的取消率為 21%，略高於我們的歷史平均水平，因此這種定價策略產生了足夠的新總銷售額來抵消全公司範圍內的取消。我們的定價策略在 9 月份繼續取得成功。它使我們對第四季度的新銷售訂單指導充滿信心。

We fundamentally believe that this price to market strategy reflects our balance sheet first of focus, where we can maintain starts in sales, generate cash flow and keep our homebuilding machine going.

我們從根本上認為，這種按市價計算的策略首先反映了我們的資產負債表，我們可以在其中保持銷售開端，產生現金流並保持我們的房屋建築機器運轉。

I'd now like to give you an update on our markets across the country. It really fall into 3 categories: one, markets that have continued to perform well; two, markets where we have adjusted pricing and incentives, found the market price and have successfully regained sales momentum; and three, markets that may require some additional pricing adjustments to regain our targeted absorption base.

我現在想向您介紹我們在全國各地的市場最新情況。它實際上分為三類：一是繼續表現良好的市場；二、我們調整定價和激勵措施、找到市場價格並成功恢復銷售勢頭的市場；第三，可能需要一些額外的定價調整才能重新獲得我們的目標吸收基礎的市場。

During the third quarter and so far in September, we have had 9 markets that continue to perform well. These are Southwest Florida, Southeast Florida, Palm Atlantic, New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, Charlotte, Indianapolis and San Diego.

在第三季度和 9 月到目前為止，我們有 9 個市場繼續表現良好。這些是佛羅里達州西南部、佛羅里達州東南部、棕櫚大西洋、新澤西州、馬里蘭州、弗吉尼亞州、夏洛特、印第安納波利斯和聖地亞哥。

These markets are benefiting from extremely low inventory. And many are benefiting from a strong local economy, employment growth and in-migration. While these markets have continued to be strong, we have had to offer mortgage buydown programs and normalize incentives to maintain sales momentum. Some communities in these markets have required targeted price adjustments on a limited basis.

這些市場正受益於極低的庫存。許多人受益於強勁的當地經濟、就業增長和移民。儘管這些市場繼續保持強勁，但我們不得不提供抵押貸款購買計劃並規範激勵措施以保持銷售勢頭。這些市場中的一些社區要求在有限的基礎上進行有針對性的價格調整。

Our category 2 markets, which reflect markets where we have made more significant adjustments to regain sales momentum, include 22 markets. These are Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville, Coastal Carolinas, Atlanta, Chicago and Nashville, Raleigh, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas, Colorado, Coastal California, Coastal Carolinas, Inland Empire, Bay Area, the Central Valley, Sacramento, Seattle and Portland.

我們的第 2 類市場包括 22 個市場，這些市場反映了我們為恢復銷售勢頭而進行了更重大調整的市場。這些是坦帕、奧蘭多和傑克遜維爾、卡羅來納州沿海地區、亞特蘭大、芝加哥和納什維爾、羅利、達拉斯、休斯頓、聖安東尼奧、鳳凰城、圖森、拉斯維加斯、科羅拉多州、加利福尼亞州沿海地區、卡羅來納州沿海地區、內陸帝國、灣區、中央山谷、薩克拉門托、西雅圖和波特蘭。

Each of these markets' traffic has slowed, and we saw a pickup in cancellations. While inventory is limited in each of these markets, we've had to offer more aggressive financing programs, base price reductions and/or increased incentives to regain sales momentum.

這些市場的客流量都在放緩，我們看到取消訂單有所增加。雖然這些市場中的庫存有限，但我們不得不提供更積極的融資計劃、降低底價和/或增加激勵措施以恢復銷售勢頭。

Size of the adjustments has varied on a community-by-community basis and has often been limited to specific homes each week -- in each community each week. In some cases, to avoid cancellations, we have adjusted pricing on our homes in backlog. We believe we are being very proactive with our pricing and not reactive. This has allowed us to sell homes and avoid building finished inventory. We are outselling the competition and are increasing our market share.

調整的規模因社區而異，而且通常僅限於每週特定的家庭——每週在每個社區。在某些情況下，為避免取消，我們調整了積壓房屋的價格。我們相信我們在定價方面非常積極主動，而不是被動反應。這使我們能夠出售房屋並避免建立成品庫存。我們的銷量超過了競爭對手，並且正在增加我們的市場份額。

Category 3 markets, which reflect more significant market softening and correction, include 7 markets. These are the Philly Metro area, Minnesota, Pensacola, Austin, Reno, Boise and Utah. While the drivers and individual dynamics of these markets are varied somewhat, traffic has slowed significantly.

第 3 類市場反映了更顯著的市場疲軟和修正，包括 7 個市場。這些是費城都會區、明尼蘇達州、彭薩科拉、奧斯汀、里諾、博伊西和猶他州。雖然這些市場的驅動因素和個體動態有所不同，但交通量已顯著放緩。

Buyers are taking more time to make a purchase decision, and many need to be convinced that now is the time to buy. There is fear that sales prices have not hit bottom, which has led to an elevated level of cancellations.

買家需要更多時間來做出購買決定，許多人需要確信現在是購買的好時機。人們擔心銷售價格尚未觸底，這導致取消率上升。

In these markets, we are focused on establishing pricing that generates new gross sales to offset cancellations. This has required us to work in many cases with backlog to prevent cancellations. It has also required a mix of significant base price adjustments, sales incentives and aggressive mortgage buydowns.

在這些市場中，我們專注於建立能夠產生新銷售總額以抵消取消訂單的定價。這要求我們在許多情況下處理積壓工作以防止取消。它還需要對基礎價格進行重大調整、銷售激勵措施和積極的抵押貸款購買。

While we've made progress in these markets, we still need to make some adjustments on a community-by-community basis. There's not a one-size-fits-all solution. Everything needs to be fine-tuned to the specifics of the market and community.

雖然我們在這些市場上取得了進展，但我們仍然需要在每個社區的基礎上進行一些調整。沒有一種萬能的解決方案。一切都需要根據市場和社區的具體情況進行微調。

I'm confident that we'll make progress in each of these markets in the fourth quarter. We're fortunate to have solid gross margins and limited completed unsold inventory, so we should be able to get these markets on track shortly.

我相信我們將在第四季度在這些市場中的每一個方面取得進展。我們很幸運擁有穩定的毛利率和有限的已完成未售出庫存，因此我們應該能夠很快讓這些市場走上正軌。

I hope this gives you a better picture of our markets across the country and what we're doing to keep our sales activity going. Markets remain very fluid, and we are making proactive strategic decisions and adjustments every day.

我希望這能讓您更好地了解我們在全國的市場，以及我們正在做些什麼來保持我們的銷售活動。市場仍然非常不穩定，我們每天都在做出積極的戰略決策和調整。

We are committed as a management team to address any future market changes quickly. As we've said in the past, we're going to keep our homebuilding machine going, maintain our starts pace and price our homes to market. This is our balance sheet focus.

作為一個管理團隊，我們致力於快速應對未來的任何市場變化。正如我們過去所說，我們將讓我們的房屋建築機器繼續運轉，保持我們的開工速度並將我們的房屋定價到市場。這是我們的資產負債表重點。

Before I turn it over to Jon, I'd like to thank all of our trade partners and associates for their hard work and endless dedication during these rapidly changing times to successfully execute our operating strategies. Now I'd like to turn it over to Jon.

在我把它交給喬恩之前，我要感謝我們所有的貿易夥伴和同事在這個瞬息萬變的時代為成功執行我們的運營戰略所做的辛勤工作和無盡的奉獻。現在我想把它交給喬恩。

Thanks, Rick. This morning, I will discuss our sales and inventory management focus, our land strategy and give an update on the status of the supply chain. I'd like to start by laying out a few additional thoughts on the detail that Rick just walked you through.

謝謝，瑞克。今天上午，我將討論我們的銷售和庫存管理重點、我們的土地戰略，並提供供應鏈狀況的最新信息。我想首先對 Rick 剛剛向您介紹的細節提出一些額外的想法。

As discussed, this quarter was all about the daily process of adjusting home prices to find market clearing values in each individual community. As noted, our starts and sales pace for the quarter were 4.4 homes and 4.0 homes, respectively. This gap between starts pace and sales pace comes from the time it takes to make the pricing adjustments necessary to be perceived as value by the consumer finding that value proposition is a process that takes several weeks and is ongoing.

如前所述，本季度是關於調整房價以在每個社區中找到市場清算價值的日常過程。如前所述，我們本季度的開工和銷售速度分別為 4.4 套和 4.0 套。啟動速度和銷售速度之間的差距來自於進行必要的定價調整以被消費者視為價值所需的時間，發現價值主張是一個需要數週且正在進行的過程。

In other words, once market pricing is found through discovery, the market often experiences further adjustments, and a new value proposition must be discovered.

換句話說，一旦通過發現找到市場定價，市場往往會經歷進一步的調整，必鬚髮現新的價值主張。

As we went through the process of finding clearing prices in communities, this informed our decision-making, which enabled broader pricing adjustments, leading to our improved sales pace across our entire platform for the month of August.

隨著我們在社區中尋找清算價格的過程，這為我們的決策提供了信息，從而實現了更廣泛的定價調整，從而提高了 8 月份整個平台的銷售速度。

As Stuart noted, our operators use our dynamic pricing model to help them understand the timing of inventory as it moves through the construction process. This tool gives us visibility into sales pace and associated pricing by community and even by plan, allowing us to maintain our starts pace without building up excess inventory. Our inventory position at the end of the quarter was just over 500 completed unsold homes or 0.4 homes per community.

正如 Stuart 所說，我們的運營商使用我們的動態定價模型來幫助他們了解庫存在施工過程中的時間安排。該工具使我們能夠按社區甚至按計劃了解銷售速度和相關定價，從而使我們能夠在不增加庫存的情況下保持啟動速度。我們在本季度末的庫存狀況剛剛超過 500 套已完工的未售出房屋或每個社區 0.4 套房屋。

Next, I want to discuss our land focus in the third quarter. As expected, we focused a lot of attention on reassessing every land deal in our pipeline along with updating our underwriting. Based on our intense review, we move forward only on those deals with starts in 2023 and where we were also confident in the updated financial underwriting.

接下來，我想討論我們在第三季度的土地重點。正如預期的那樣，我們將大量注意力集中在重新評估我們管道中的每一筆土地交易以及更新我們的承保。根據我們的深入審查，我們只推進那些在 2023 年開始的交易，並且我們對更新的財務承銷也充滿信心。

Most of the land deals we closed on in the quarter came from our strong land relationships with existing structured quarterly takedowns. These takedowns are deals where we would be starting the homes quickly and still projected healthy margins. All other deals based on the updated underwriting either had its timing delayed, was restructured or we did not proceed.

我們在本季度完成的大部分土地交易都來自我們與現有結構化季度拆遷的牢固土地關係。這些拆除是我們將快速啟動房屋並且仍然預測健康利潤的交易。基於更新承保的所有其他交易要么推遲了時間，要么進行了重組，要么我們沒有繼續進行。

Our intensified focus on our land-light strategy was evidenced by our controlled home site percentage increasing to 63% at the end of the third quarter, up from 53% last year. We also further reduced the years of owned home sites to 2.9 years at the end of the third quarter, down from 3.3 years last year. And we reduced the number of home sites purchased in the third quarter to about 13,100, down 21% and 25% year-over-year and sequentially, respectively.

我們對陸光戰略的高度關注體現在我們的受控家庭用地百分比從去年的 53% 增加到第三季度末的 63%。我們還在第三季度末將自有住宅用地的年限進一步降低至 2.9 年，低於去年的 3.3 年。我們將第三季度購買的住宅用地數量減少至約 13,100 個，同比和環比分別下降 21% 和 25%。

Our extreme focus on a deal-by-deal review and adherence to our disciplined land lighter model drove the significant improvement in the strength of Lennar's balance sheet, as Stuart discussed.

正如 Stuart 所討論的，我們對逐筆交易審查的極度關注以及對我們紀律嚴明的土地更輕模型的堅持推動了 Lennar 資產負債表實力的顯著改善。

Now I'd like to turn to the current state of the supply chain. Our third quarter continued presenting some favorable cycle time results while still dealing with ongoing disruptions from certain material shortages. Although it was minor, it's still significant that we achieved a 3-day reduction in cycle time in Q3 from Q2.

現在我想談談供應鏈的當前狀態。我們的第三季度繼續呈現一些有利的周期結果，同時仍在處理某些材料短缺造成的持續中斷。儘管這很小，但我們在第三季度的周期時間比第二季度減少了 3 天，這仍然很重要。

Additionally, over 50% of our markets experienced cycle time reductions in the third quarter compared to 25% in the second quarter. The primary material disruption in the third quarter was related to the delivery of electrical equipment such as switchgear, multimeter boxes and pad-mounted transformers.

此外，我們超過 50% 的市場在第三季度經歷了周期時間縮短，而第二季度這一比例為 25%。第三季度的主要材料中斷與電氣設備的交付有關，例如開關設備、萬用表箱和墊裝式變壓器。

Construction labor remains very tight as industry-wide high levels of volume for second half deliveries moves through the various stages of construction. We expect to start seeing some easing in labor as the overall industry reduces the level of construction starts. This easing should start to first occur in the fourth quarter with front-end trades and in the first quarter with finished trades.

由於下半年交付的全行業高水平的數量在建設的各個階段移動，建築勞動力仍然非常緊張。隨著整個行業降低開工水平，我們預計勞動力將開始有所緩解。這種寬鬆應該首先發生在第四季度的前端交易和第一季度的完成交易。

As expected, cost increased in our third quarter as increases from lumber that spiked in Q1 flowed through our third quarter closings. We also saw increases in other material costs and labor in Q3 closings, resulting in a total direct construction cost increase of 6% and 21% sequentially and year-over-year, respectively. As a reminder, the drop in lumber prices we saw earlier in the year materially benefited the cost of our starts in the third quarter and will flow through deliveries in the first half of 2023.

正如預期的那樣，我們第三季度的成本增加了，因為第一季度飆升的木材增加流經我們第三季度的關閉。我們還看到第三季度結束時其他材料成本和勞動力的增加，導致總直接建築成本環比和同比分別增長 6% 和 21%。提醒一下，我們在今年早些時候看到的木材價格下跌大大有利於我們在第三季度的開工成本，並將在 2023 年上半年通過交付。

Thank you, and I'll now turn it over to Diane.

謝謝你，我現在把它交給黛安。

Thank you, Jon, and good morning, everyone. So Stuart, Rick and Jon have provided a great deal of color regarding our homebuilding performance. So therefore, I'm going to spend a few minutes on the results of our other business segments in our balance sheet and then turn to Q4 guidance.

謝謝你，喬恩，大家早上好。因此，Stuart、Rick 和 Jon 為我們的住宅建設表現提供了很多色彩。因此，我將花幾分鐘時間了解我們資產負債表中其他業務部門的結果，然後轉向第四季度的指導。

So starting with Financial Services. For the third quarter, our Financial Services team produced operating earnings of $99 million, excluding the recording of a onetime litigation pool.

所以從金融服務開始。第三季度，我們的金融服務團隊產生了 9900 萬美元的營業收入，不包括一次性訴訟池的記錄。

And then looking at the details, our mortgage operating earnings was $64 million compared to $80 million in the prior year. As we've indicated for several quarters, the mortgage market continues to be extraordinarily competitive for purchase business. As a result, secondary margins have been decreasing. This decrease in earnings was partially offset by an increase in interest rate lock commitments.

然後查看詳細信息，我們的抵押貸款營業收入為 6400 萬美元，而去年為 8000 萬美元。正如我們幾個季度以來所指出的那樣，抵押貸款市場對於購買業務的競爭仍然非常激烈。因此，次要利潤一直在下降。收益的下降部分被利率鎖定承諾的增加所抵消。

Total operating earnings were $33 million compared to $26 million in the prior year. Final earnings increased primarily as a result of higher volumes and an increase in revenue per transaction. Our Financial Services team continues to rise to the occasion each and every quarter to assist our homebuilder divisions and properly service our customers.

總營業收入為 3300 萬美元，而去年為 2600 萬美元。最終收益的增加主要是由於交易量增加和每筆交易收入的增加。我們的金融服務團隊每個季度都會繼續適應這個場合，以協助我們的房屋建築部門並為我們的客戶提供適當的服務。

And then turning to the Lennar Other segment. For the third quarter, our Lennar Other segment had an operating loss of $118 million. This loss was primarily the result of a noncash mark-to-market loss on our publicly traded technology investments, which totaled $86 million.

然後轉向 Lennar 其他部分。第三季度，我們的 Lennar 其他部門的經營虧損為 1.18 億美元。這一損失主要是由於我們公開交易的技術投資的非現金按市值計價損失，總計 8600 萬美元。

As we've mentioned before, we are required to mark to market many of our technology investments that are publicly traded, and that valuation will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. However, we believe these technology partnerships provide significant operational efficiencies for both our Homebuilding and Financial Services platform and greatly improve our customers' experience.

正如我們之前提到的，我們需要將我們的許多公開交易的技術投資標記為市場，並且該估值將隨季度波動。然而，我們相信這些技術合作夥伴關係為我們的房屋建築和金融服務平台提供了顯著的運營效率，並極大地改善了我們客戶的體驗。

And then looking at our balance sheet quickly. As you've heard all of us mention this quarter, we were laser-focused on managing our balance sheet. We focused on generating cash by pricing to market, and we focused on preserving cash by monitoring our stock space and carefully reviewing potential land purchases.

然後快速查看我們的資產負債表。正如您在本季度聽到我們所有人提到的那樣，我們一直專注於管理我們的資產負債表。我們專注於通過按市場定價來產生現金，我們專注於通過監控我們的庫存空間和仔細審查潛在的土地購買來保留現金。

The end result, as you've heard us say, is that we ended the quarter with $1.3 billion of cash and no borrowings on our $2.6 billion revolving credit facility. This provided a total of $3.9 billion of homebuilding liquidity.

正如您聽到我們所說的那樣，最終結果是我們在本季度結束時擁有 13 億美元的現金，並且我們 26 億美元的循環信貸額度沒有借款。這提供了總計 39 億美元的房屋建設流動資金。

During the quarter, we continued our progress of becoming land lighter. At quarter end, we owned 184,000 home sites and controlled 307,000 home sites for a total of 491,000 home sites. This translates into 2.9 years of home sites owned, an improvement from 3.3 years in the prior year and 63% home sites controlled, an improvement from 53% in the prior year.

在本季度，我們繼續推進土地輕量化。季度末，我們擁有 184,000 個家庭站點，控制 307,000 個家庭站點，總計 491,000 個家庭站點。這意味著擁有 2.9 年的家庭用地，比上一年的 3.3 年有所改善，63% 的家庭用地受控，比上一年的 53% 有所改善。

Most important, though, we believe this portfolio of home sites provides us with a strong competitive position to continue to grow our market share. Additionally, we continue to delever our balance sheet as we repaid $575 million of senior notes that were due in November of this year, and we have no additional maturities in fiscal 2023.

不過，最重要的是，我們相信這個家庭網站組合為我們提供了強大的競爭地位，以繼續擴大我們的市場份額。此外，我們繼續去槓桿化我們的資產負債表，因為我們償還了今年 11 月到期的 5.75 億美元優先票據，而且我們在 2023 財年沒有額外的到期日。

In the last several years, we have repaid $5.4 billion of senior notes with an associated annual interest savings of almost $300 million. A continued paydown of senior notes and continued strong generation of earnings brought our homebuilding debt to total capital ratio down to 15% at quarter end, our lowest ever, which is an improvement from 21.2% in the prior year.

在過去幾年中，我們已償還了 54 億美元的優先票據，相關的年度利息節省近 3 億美元。優先票據的持續償還和持續強勁的收益使我們的房屋建設債務與總資本比率在季度末降至 15%，這是我們有史以來的最低水平，比去年的 21.2% 有所改善。

Our stockholders' equity increased to $23 billion. Our book value per share increased to almost $79. Our return on inventory was 32.7%, and our return on equity was 21%.

我們的股東權益增加到 230 億美元。我們的每股賬面價值增至近 79 美元。我們的庫存回報率為 32.7%，股本回報率為 21%。

Finally, we received an upgrade from Moody's during the quarter. Our credit rating was increased from Baa3 to Baa2. We greatly appreciate Moody's confidence in our company and continue to be very pleased to have an investment-grade rating from all 3 agencies.

最後，我們在本季度收到了穆迪的升級。我們的信用評級從 Baa3 上調至 Baa2。我們非常感謝穆迪對我們公司的信任，並繼續很高興獲得所有 3 家機構的投資級評級。

In summary, the strength of our balance sheet, strong liquidity and low leverage provide us with significant confidence and financial flexibility to navigate this uncertain market.

總之，我們的資產負債表實力、強大的流動性和低杠桿為我們提供了極大的信心和財務靈活性來應對這個不確定的市場。

With that brief overview, I'd like to turn to guidance. As Stuart mentioned, it continues to be difficult to provide the targeted guidance that we have historically provided, given the uncertainty in market conditions. So as we did last quarter, we are providing very broad ranges to give some boundaries for each of the components.

有了這個簡短的概述，我想轉向指導。正如 Stuart 所提到的，鑑於市場條件的不確定性，提供我們歷來提供的有針對性的指導仍然很困難。因此，正如我們上個季度所做的那樣，我們提供了非常廣泛的範圍，為每個組件提供了一些界限。

So let's start with new orders. We expect Q4 new orders to be in the range of 14,000 to 15,500, and we expect our Q4 ending community count to increase about 5% from Q3. We anticipate our Q4 deliveries will be in the range of 20,000 to 21,000 homes. Our average sales price should be in the range of $475,000 to $480,000.

因此，讓我們從新訂單開始。我們預計第四季度的新訂單將在 14,000 至 15,500 之間，我們預計第四季度結束的社區數量將比第三季度增加約 5%。我們預計我們第四季度的交付量將在 20,000 到 21,000 個家庭之間。我們的平均銷售價格應該在 475,000 美元到 480,000 美元之間。

Our gross margin is in the range of 26% to 27%, and our SG&A between 5.7% and 5.9% as we continue to price to market, turn our inventory and generate cash. For the combined homebuilding joint venture, land sale and other categories, including noncontrolling interest, we expect a loss of approximately $15 million.

我們的毛利率在 26% 到 27% 之間，我們的 SG&A 在 5.7% 到 5.9% 之間，因為我們繼續按市場定價、周轉庫存和產生現金。對於合併後的房屋建築合資企業、土地出售和其他類別，包括非控股權益，我們預計虧損約 1500 萬美元。

We anticipate our Financial Services earnings for Q4 will be in the range of $50 million to $60 million as market competition for purchased business continues to increase. We expect earnings of $15 million to $20 million for our multifamily business. And for the Lennar Other category, we expect a loss of about $20 million.

我們預計，隨著收購業務的市場競爭持續加劇，我們第四季度的金融服務收益將在 5000 萬美元至 6000 萬美元之間。我們預計多戶家庭業務的收益為 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。對於 Lennar 其他類別，我們預計損失約為 2000 萬美元。

This guidance does not include any potential mark-to-market adjustments to our technology investments since that adjustment will be determined by their stock prices at the end of our quarter. We expect our Q4 corporate G&A to be about 1.2% of total revenue, and our charitable foundation contribution will be based on $1,000 per home delivery.

該指南不包括對我們的技術投資的任何潛在的按市值調整，因為該調整將由我們季度末的股價決定。我們預計第四季度公司 G&A 將佔總收入的 1.2% 左右，我們的慈善基金會捐款將基於每次送貨上門 1,000 美元。

We expect our tax rate to be about 24.5%, and the weighted average share count for the quarter should be approximately 288 million shares. And so when you follow this together, this guidance should produce an EPS range of approximately $4.65 to $5.30 per share for the fourth quarter.

我們預計我們的稅率約為 24.5%，本季度的加權平均股數應約為 2.88 億股。因此，當您一起遵循此指南時，該指南應產生第四季度每股約 4.65 美元至 5.30 美元的每股收益範圍。

And with that, let me turn it over to the operator.

有了這個，讓我把它交給操作員。

(Operator Instructions) Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson。

So you all have been pretty open about the fact that you intended to throttle the incentive level to really drive volumes. And the orders down 12% is, I think, a good result in the current environment.

所以你們都非常開放，因為你們打算限制激勵水平以真正推動交易量。我認為，在當前環境下，訂單下降 12% 是一個不錯的結果。

So your order ASP fell 9% sequentially. All 4 regions looked like they ticked lower. I'm just hoping you can help us understand how much of that 12% decline was a function of base price cuts, incentives, et cetera? Was it the overwhelming majority? Or was there some product mix shift in there?

因此，您的訂單平均售價環比下降 9%。所有 4 個地區看起來都在走低。我只是希望你能幫助我們了解這 12% 的下降中有多少是由於基礎降價、激勵措施等造成的？是絕大多數嗎？或者那裡有一些產品組合的變化？

Why don't I let Rick take that? Go ahead. I'm going to play a little traffic cop here because we are in remote locations. So go ahead, Rick.

為什麼我不讓瑞克拿走呢？前進。我要在這裡扮演一個小交通警察，因為我們在偏遠的地方。所以去吧，瑞克。

So as I mentioned in my commentary, there was about a 4.5% incentive that was priced in the quarter. It was -- some of that was a base price change with a slight mix adjustment as we closed a more significant amount of entry-level homes during the quarter.

因此，正如我在評論中提到的，本季度定價了大約 4.5% 的激勵措施。這是 - 其中一些是基礎價格變化，略有混合調整，因為我們在本季度關閉了更多的入門級房屋。

Okay. Perfect. So that 4.5% increase captures both the incentive level and the base price cuts. All right. And you all now have increased your option land to 63% of your portfolio. It's been a pretty rapid shift over the past couple of years. And you mentioned that you reassessed every deal in your pipeline, and you're working with partners to improve underwriting standards.

好的。完美的。因此，4.5% 的增長既體現了激勵水平，也體現了基礎降價。好的。現在你們所有人都將期權土地增加到了投資組合的 63%。在過去的幾年裡，這是一個相當迅速的轉變。您提到您重新評估了管道中的每筆交易，並且您正在與合作夥伴合作以提高承保標準。

Could you help us understand if you've actually been walking away from deals at an accelerated pace? I noticed your option lot declined in the quarter. Could you discuss just the willingness of your partners to work with you all? And any chance you might be able to help us quantify what portion of controlled deals might be on the watch list or at risk?

您能否幫助我們了解您是否真的在加速退出交易？我注意到您的期權手數在本季度有所下降。您能否僅討論您的合作夥伴與大家合作的意願？您是否有機會幫助我們量化受控交易的哪些部分可能在觀察名單上或處於風險之中？

So let me give a broad thought process on that. There is -- there are a couple of buckets you got to think about. Some of the shorter-term deals that we have been working through that we own home sites in, those home sites continue to be valuable assets that we're working -- that we're putting into production and generating an attractive margin on even in current market conditions.

所以讓我給出一個廣泛的思考過程。有 - 你需要考慮幾個桶。我們一直在進行的一些短期交易，我們擁有自己的網站，這些網站仍然是我們正在工作的寶貴資產——我們正在投入生產，甚至在目前的市場狀況。

We will continue to build through those communities. That's one of the benefits of shorter-term deals is they generally will work through and still generate an attractive margin. In every land deal that we have in our pipeline, we are going back and doing the re-underwriting on -- not just onetime, but on a pretty regular basis, given the movements in market conditions.

我們將繼續通過這些社區進行建設。這是短期交易的好處之一，它們通常會成功並仍然產生有吸引力的利潤。在我們正在進行的每筆土地交易中，我們都會回去進行重新承銷——不僅僅是一次，而是相當定期的，因為市場條件的變化。

And so the answer to your question is we will walk away from programs that we have or land that we have under contract that no longer meet the underwriting criteria and where we have the ability to walk away at an attractive cost. We're just not going to go forward on deals that no longer meet the underwriting criteria. And that is the benefit that comes to bear, given the way that we've migrated our land program over the past couple of years.

因此，您的問題的答案是，我們將放棄我們擁有的不再符合承保標準並且我們有能力以具有吸引力的成本離開的合同項目或土地。我們只是不會繼續進行不再符合承保標準的交易。考慮到我們在過去幾年中遷移土地計劃的方式，這就是帶來的好處。

So over this past quarter, there are deals that meet the stringent underwriting criteria and deals that don't. And those that don't fall out of the filter, and we've walked away and we'll come back another day. So we've probably walked away from something in the nature of 10,000 home sites just over this past quarter. Is that it, Diane?

因此，在過去的這個季度中，有一些交易符合嚴格的承保標準，也有一些交易不符合。那些沒有從過濾器中掉出來的，我們已經離開了，我們改天再來。因此，在過去的這個季度中，我們可能已經放棄了 10,000 個家庭站點的性質。是嗎，黛安？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. And Rick, Jon, do you want to weigh in on that?

是的。瑞克，喬恩，你想權衡一下嗎？

Yes. I would just add that we have extremely strong relationships with a lot of land partners. And relative to your question, we are able to work with them to either adjust timing, to restructure, to change pace. And that combined with, as Stuart described, just a constant refreshing analysis just keeps us very current so that the land we are acquiring is turning into starts very quickly with very acceptable margins. And if it doesn't fit that criteria, we're finding the appropriate alternative solution for the asset.

是的。我只想補充一點，我們與許多土地合作夥伴有著非常牢固的關係。相對於您的問題，我們能夠與他們合作調整時間、重組或改變節奏。正如 Stuart 所描述的那樣，再加上不斷刷新的分析，我們就可以保持最新狀態，因此我們獲得的土地正在以非常可接受的利潤迅速開始。如果它不符合該標準，我們正在為資產尋找合適的替代解決方案。

Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

高盛的蘇珊·馬克拉里。

My first question is, Stuart, you talked a lot about cash generation. And as we do think about the overall market moderating, can you talk to some of the changes in the business today relative to the past cycle, what that will mean for your ability to generate cash as we think about things changing on the ground, and the areas that you're really focused on investing in, in order to position the business for that eventual recovery and where you see Lennar going over time?

我的第一個問題是，斯圖爾特，你談了很多關於現金產生的問題。當我們確實考慮到整體市場正在放緩時，您能否談談當今業務相對於過去週期的一些變化，這對您在考慮實際變化時產生現金的能力意味著什麼，以及您真正專注於投資的領域，以便為最終的複蘇定位業務，以及隨著時間的推移，您認為 Lennar 將走向何方？

Great question. Historically, if you look at the composition of Lennar and many of the builders, we've migrated away from those longer-term land positions that have really stuck us in the mud as the market has gotten slow. And because we have basically converted our land asset to short-term assets, those assets will turn over as we continue to produce through the current market conditions.

好問題。從歷史上看，如果您查看 Lennar 和許多建築商的構成，我們已經擺脫了那些隨著市場變得緩慢而真正讓我們陷入泥潭的長期土地位置。而且因為我們基本上已經將我們的土地資產轉換為短期資產，這些資產將隨著我們在當前市場條件下繼續生產而周轉。

And so -- and we'll replace those assets with land assets that are repriced, given the current market condition. So that's a structural change in Lennar specifically and in the industry more broadly that I think is going to be very cash generative.

因此，鑑於當前的市場狀況，我們將用重新定價的土地資產替換這些資產。因此，這是 Lennar 和更廣泛行業的結構性變化，我認為這將產生非常大的現金收益。

There are a number of things that work against homebuilders in downtime. One of them is long-term land, and that's been mitigated.

在停機期間，有許多事情對房屋建築商不利。其中之一是長期土地，這已經得到緩解。

The second thing I'd say is when you're growing a homebuilding company, one of the big cash users is the growth component. We're constantly buying land and putting more sticks and bricks in the ground to accommodate growth.

我要說的第二件事是，當您發展一家住宅建築公司時，最大的現金用戶之一就是增長部分。我們不斷地購買土地並在地裡放置更多的木棍和磚塊以適應增長。

As you migrate to a slower growth level or a 0 growth level, that in itself is cash generative. So now short-term land position plus migration to a no-growth environment, both very cash flow positive.

當您遷移到較慢的增長水平或 0 增長水平時，這本身就是產生現金的。所以現在短期的土地狀況加上遷移到一個沒有增長的環境，都非常積極的現金流。

And then the one anomalous component is the cycle time that is derived from the supply chain impairment that we've been dealing with. That has added about 25% more cash use inventory buildup relative to normalized times.

然後一個異常部分是我們一直在處理的供應鏈受損導致的周期時間。相對於正常化時間，這增加了約 25% 的現金使用庫存積累。

As we've noted before, we've added about 2 months to our generally 6-month cycle time. And I think that's an industry kind of average. And that 2 months ultimately is going to find its way to resolution. We will see a reversion back to a normalized kind of cycle time in production. And that also should be tailwinds, winds at our back in terms of generating cash as we have a normalization, might take place this year, might take place over the next couple of years, but it should generate cash as we go forward.

正如我們之前提到的，我們在通常 6 個月的周期時間中增加了大約 2 個月。我認為這是行業的平均水平。這兩個月最終將找到解決問題的方法。我們將看到生產中恢復到標準化的周期時間。這也應該是順風，在我們正常化時產生現金方面的逆風，可能會在今年發生，可能會在未來幾年發生，但隨著我們前進，它應該會產生現金。

Okay. That's very helpful color. And then following up, affordability is obviously a key focus as rates rise and the macro changes. Can you talk to some of the benefits of your underlying operations and how you're able to sort of drive that narrow band between the tensions that exist on the cost side relative to what the consumer needs and the ability to get those first time kind of home buyers into a house?

好的。這是非常有用的顏色。然後跟進，隨著利率上升和宏觀變化，可負擔性顯然是一個關鍵焦點。您能否談談您的基礎運營的一些好處，以及您如何能夠在成本方面存在的緊張關係與消費者需求之間存在的緊張關係與獲得這些第一次的能力之間的窄帶購房者進了房子？

Well, listen, I'm going to have Rick and Jon both speak to this. Let me just say as a general overview along those lines, the 3 of us just left a 2-day session with our trade partners. And the partnership that exists among our operating groups in the field and our trade partners really came to light as we had straight conversation about what the market is doing and partnership and recognizing that we've all got to find a way to reconcile costs to enable affordability in the sales price of the home.

好吧，聽著，我要讓瑞克和喬恩都來談談這個。讓我說一下，作為這些方面的總體概述，我們三個人剛剛與我們的貿易夥伴進行了為期兩天的會議。我們在該領域的運營團隊和我們的貿易夥伴之間存在的伙伴關係真正暴露出來，因為我們就市場正在做什麼和夥伴關係進行了直接對話，並認識到我們都必須找到一種方法來協調成本以實現房屋銷售價格的負擔能力。

That goes to our land partners as well as to our trade partners. I think that across the industry, everybody recognizes that there's going to have to be a cost reconciliation as interest rates go up. It's clear that there's going to be more increase in interest rates that we're going to be dealing with. So we've got to band together to make the machine work, and that means a cost structure that enables affordability. Rick, Jon?

這不僅適用於我們的土地合作夥伴，也適用於我們的貿易夥伴。我認為，在整個行業中，每個人都認識到，隨著利率的上升，必須進行成本協調。很明顯，我們將要處理的利率將會增加更多。所以我們必須聯合起來讓機器工作，這意味著成本結構可以負擔得起。瑞克，喬恩？

Yes. It's exactly what you said, Stuart. It's a combination of us reducing sales prices and having the margin impact, and you saw that we executed on that during the quarter.

是的。這正是你所說的，斯圖爾特。這是我們降低銷售價格和產生利潤影響的結合，你看到我們在本季度執行了這一點。

We've discussed with our trade partners that there needs to be a sharing. Everyone made a lot of money during the up cycle, and it's time to work as partners to restructure the cost side on both the labor and material side.

我們已經與我們的貿易夥伴討論過需要分享。每個人都在上升週期中賺了很多錢，是時候作為合作夥伴在勞動力和材料方面重組成本方面了。

And in addition, as Stuart walked through the land side of the business, there's going to be some adjustments in the land pricing. So it's the collective of all 3 of those that we will do in order to execute the strategy to keep the sales momentum going.

此外，隨著斯圖爾特在土地業務方面的發展，土地定價也會有一些調整。因此，為了執行保持銷售勢頭的戰略，我們將做這三件事的集體。

The only thing I would add is that we're also -- during this time, as Rick highlighted, we have to find the right price to match the affordability perspective and reality that our customer has. It's -- we look very carefully at our product offering to see where we can do some significant value engineering as well as introduce smaller, more efficient product into certain markets. So we continue to move down the price curve and meet the place where affordability for the consumer intersects with mortgage payment and home prices.

我唯一要補充的是，在這段時間裡，正如 Rick 強調的那樣，我們必須找到合適的價格來匹配我們客戶的可負擔性觀點和現實。這是 - 我們非常仔細地查看我們的產品，看看我們可以在哪裡進行一些重要的價值工程，以及將更小、更高效的產品引入某些市場。因此，我們繼續向下移動價格曲線，並滿足消費者的負擔能力與抵押貸款支付和房價相交的地方。

Yes. I guess the bottom line, this is a dynamic situation. And the execution part of that is alignment. You hear alignment with me, Rick and Jon, and we've conveyed that through the Lennar organization to the trade partners and to our land partners as well that work has got to be done, and everybody is at work.

是的。我想歸根結底，這是一個動態的情況。執行部分是對齊。 Rick 和 Jon，你們聽到了我的意見，我們已經通過 Lennar 組織向貿易夥伴和我們的土地合作夥伴傳達了這一點，工作必須完成，每個人都在工作。

Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

斯蒂芬金與 Evercore ISI。

Just first question just from a housekeeping perspective, from calculating your starts, we're probably about 15,700. Correct me if I'm wrong. And then you talked about inventory, maybe freeing up some cash. I think you said that cycle times, moderating cycle times eventually was 25%, I guess, of the growth. I suppose that was a comment about your sticks and bricks inventory.

只是從家政的角度來看的第一個問題，從計算你的開始，我們可能大約是 15,700。如我錯了請糾正我。然後你談到了庫存，也許可以釋放一些現金。我想你說過週期時間，調節週期時間最終是增長的 25%，我猜。我想這是對您的木棍和磚塊庫存的評論。

So (inaudible) online is on the inventory, I'm thinking that the cycle time negative impact. Am I right in thinking that you're saying that, that's about $1.8 billion of cash that's burdening your current inventory? So that number and then also the 15,700 starts, is that in the ballpark?

所以（聽不清）在線是關於庫存的，我認為周期時間有負面影響。我認為您所說的是否正確，這大約是 18 億美元的現金會加重您當前的庫存負擔？所以這個數字，然後還有 15,700 次開始，是在球場上嗎？

So I'm happy you asked the question that way, Steve. I will tell you that Diane has tried to figure out what the number is. And that specificity is we haven't been able to put our finger on it, but it is in that kind of neighborhood. It's a significant amount of dollars that are tied up because of the cycle time increase.

所以我很高興你這樣問這個問題，史蒂夫。我會告訴你，黛安試圖弄清楚這個數字是多少。而這種特殊性是我們無法確定它，但它就在那種附近。由於週期時間的增加，大量的美元被佔用。

Yes.

是的。

And Steve, you're pretty close, we had about 16,000 starts this quarter, so good math.

史蒂夫，你非常接近，我們本季度有大約 16,000 次首發，數學很好。

Got you. And then in addition to that $1.8 billion neighborhood kind of number, you had also mentioned that you could see your inventory shrink further due to slower growth, more on the land side and that sort of stuff. But I assume that growth comment is temporary. So I'm thinking that near term -- or the longer term, the opportunity is probably really on the [WIP]. So correct me if I'm wrong on that.

得到你。然後除了那個 18 億美元的鄰里數字之外，你還提到你可能會看到你的庫存由於增長放緩而進一步縮小，更多的是在土地方面和諸如此類的東西。但我認為增長評論是暫時的。因此，我認為近期或長期來看，機會可能真的在 [WIP] 上。如果我錯了，請糾正我。

But I wanted to ask about your standing inventory comment as well. You said, I think, Jon, you mentioned about 500 finished, completed -- or finished specs right now. The way I calculate that, that's about 2x to 3x where you typically have 2x to 3x more than that before the pandemic hit and all that on a per community basis. And so I'm wondering, is this 500 like the new normal for you? Is this a new desired level for you? And if so, why is that if what we've been hearing is true that you're seeing that folks are actually fairly -- actually preferring customers or preferring homes that they can move into more quickly.

但我也想問一下你的常備庫存評論。你說，我想，喬恩，你提到了大約 500 個已完成、已完成或已完成的規格。我計算的方式是，這大約是大流行之前的 2 到 3 倍，而在每個社區的基礎上，你的資產通常是 2 到 3 倍。所以我想知道，這 500 是你的新常態嗎？這對您來說是一個新的理想水平嗎？如果是這樣，為什麼如果我們聽到的是真的，你看到人們實際上是公平的 - 實際上更喜歡客戶或更喜歡他們可以更快搬入的房屋。

Just wanted to understand if there's any change in your thinking about managing specs as they get near completion, and why you might be looking to reduce that number in light of customer preferences.

只是想了解在規範接近完成時您對管理規範的想法是否有任何變化，以及為什麼您可能希望根據客戶偏好減少該數量。

So it's another good observation. You're absolutely right. We basically run our inventory around about one home per community. And you're right, we're a little bit less than half of what normal has been pre-pandemic. And we do envision that we will grow our inventory to a more normalized level. We might even go beyond that.

所以這是另一個很好的觀察。你是絕對正確的。我們基本上圍繞每個社區的一戶人家進行庫存。你是對的，我們比大流行前正常水平的一半還少一點。我們確實設想我們將把我們的庫存增加到一個更加正常化的水平。我們甚至可能超越這一點。

And the point in raising the low level of inventory is we don't -- we want people to understand, we want everyone to understand that we're not just putting production in the ground and allowing inventory to build up. We have a disciplined approach to sales and making sure that we're clearing inventory. That's what our dynamic pricing model is all about, and we're on it every day.

提高低庫存水平的關鍵是我們不 - 我們希望人們理解，我們希望每個人都明白，我們不僅僅是在地下進行生產並允許庫存增加。我們有嚴格的銷售方法，並確保我們正在清理庫存。這就是我們的動態定價模型的全部意義所在，我們每天都在這樣做。

But at the same time, your point that having some standing inventory is a benefit to customers looking for an instant movement, we will -- we haven't been able to have inventory on the ground during the pandemic time. It is best practice to have a little bit more than we have right now. And we'll grow to that level, but it will be done in a very disciplined way. Jon, Rick, do you want to add to that?

但與此同時，您的觀點是，擁有一些常備庫存對於尋求即時行動的客戶是有好處的，我們將——在大流行期間我們無法在當地擁有庫存。最好的做法是比我們現在擁有的多一點。我們會成長到那個水平，但這將以非常有紀律的方式完成。喬恩，瑞克，你想補充一下嗎？

I think you really covered exactly what our operating strategy is, Stuart. And Stephen, your assessment of the numbers is right and of the consumer desirability especially in a changing interest rate environment. For a quick move-in, they can lock in their rate if they buy today and create that certainty for themselves. So that is definitely an advantage.

Stuart，我認為您確實涵蓋了我們的運營策略。斯蒂芬，你對數字的評估是正確的，尤其是在不斷變化的利率環境中，消費者的意願是正確的。為了快速入住，如果他們今天購買並為自己創造確定性，他們可以鎖定他們的價格。所以這絕對是一個優勢。

But we're very focused, as Stuart highlighted, using dynamic pricing to make sure our homes are sold in time. So as they come off our construction assembly line, we're able to deliver them to the customer. And they'll fall in that range in a more normalized time of about one community per week. It will fluctuate from time to time, but that's our focus.

但正如 Stuart 強調的那樣，我們非常專注於使用動態定價來確保我們的房屋及時售出。因此，當它們從我們的建築裝配線上下來時，我們能夠將它們交付給客戶。他們將在每週約一個社區的更正常化的時間內落入該範圍。它會不時波動，但這是我們的重點。

The only thing I'd add to that, Steve, is as Stuart said in his comments and I mentioned as well, we're very focused on cash generation. Easiest cash to generate is the sale of a completed home.

史蒂夫，我唯一要補充的是，正如斯圖爾特在他的評論中所說，我也提到過，我們非常關注現金產生。最容易產生現金的是出售已完工的房屋。

But to the extent that we have standing inventory, we're going to sell that home because we've got homes moving through the production cycle that are going to replace that. Whether it's a half or one, we've continued to refine our pricing strategy to maximize the cash and quickly sell the inventory as it progresses from stage to stage.

但就我們有常備庫存而言，我們將出售該房屋，因為我們的房屋正在經歷將取代它的生產週期。無論是一半還是一個，我們都在繼續完善我們的定價策略，以最大限度地利用現金並在庫存從一個階段到另一個階段的過程中快速出售。

And then just to add -- to go back to your earlier comment, yes, Steve, a 0 growth rate would be a temporary condition, not a permanent one. But there's an overhang or an overshadowing concept that matters. We don't want to fight the tape.

然後只是補充一下——回到你之前的評論，是的，史蒂夫，增長率為 0 將是暫時的情況，而不是永久的情況。但是有一個重要的懸垂或陰影概念。我們不想和磁帶打架。

So we're not going to try to grow when the tape is telling us not to, and that's clearly the case. But as the market comes back and as I noted in my comments, the long-term prospects for housing are strong and good. As the market turns around, we'll be very well positioned with a very strong cash position to be able to lean into market conditions improving as that happens.

因此，當磁帶告訴我們不要增長時，我們不會嘗試增長，顯然情況就是如此。但隨著市場回暖，正如我在評論中指出的那樣，住房的長期前景強勁且良好。隨著市場好轉，我們將處於非常有利的位置，擁有非常強大的現金頭寸，能夠在這種情況下適應市場狀況的改善。

Our next caller is Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一位來電者是 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

I guess, first, Stuart, maybe directed at you. We've talked in the past about build for rent and that space being a potential kind of countercyclical vehicle in the event of a slowdown in primary demand, which is clearly what we're seeing today. I'm just curious if you could talk to your current BFR business, whether perhaps you're leaning a bit more heavily on that in the current climate. And obviously, with your relationship with the fund and the investors there, what the current appetite is among those investors?

我想，首先，斯圖爾特，也許是針對你的。我們過去曾討論過出租建築，並且在主要需求放緩的情況下，該空間是一種潛在的反週期工具，這顯然是我們今天所看到的。我只是好奇你是否可以談談你目前的 BFR 業務，在當前的氣候下你是否更傾向於依賴它。很明顯，鑑於您與基金和那裡的投資者的關係，這些投資者目前的興趣是什麼？

Great. I'm going to ask Rick to jump in after. I'm going to give a first comment and say that I do believe that single-family for rent is going to continue to grow and be a meaningful part of the housing market. I've learned over the years that SFR has always been a part of the market more dominated by the mom-and-pop participants.

偉大的。之後我會請瑞克加入。我將發表第一條評論，並說我確實相信出租單戶住宅將繼續增長並成為房地產市場的重要組成部分。多年來，我了解到，SFR 一直是市場的一部分，更多地由媽媽和流行的參與者主導。

Now it's been professionalized, and more institutional buyers are a significant part of the market. But that part of the market has pulled back as interest rates have gone up, as prices have come down and it has moderated.

現在它已經專業化，更多的機構買家是市場的重要組成部分。但隨著利率上升，這部分市場已經回落，因為價格已經下降並且已經放緩。

So it is still a very small part of our production and our sales program overall. And I have no question that as prices moderate, the SFR business will push in and become more of a significant part of the recovery. So Rick, do you want to fill in some of the thoughts and numbers there?

所以它仍然只是我們生產和銷售計劃的一小部分。我毫不懷疑，隨著價格的緩和，SFR 業務將推進並成為複甦的重要組成部分。所以瑞克，你想在那裡填寫一些想法和數字嗎？

Yes. Stuart, as you mentioned, as rates have risen, several of the SFR players use leverage that's floating in order to underwrite and finance their deals. Accordingly, some of the investment in that space has slowed down, but rents are continuing to maintain. And as a result, they'll get -- they'll ultimately get their embedded yields that they're looking for.

是的。 Stuart，正如您所提到的，隨著利率的上升，一些 SFR 參與者使用浮動的槓桿來為其交易提供承銷和融資。因此，該領域的一些投資已經放緩，但租金仍在繼續維持。結果，他們會得到——他們最終會得到他們正在尋找的嵌入式產量。

For us as a company, we had about 1,000 homes that we sold to the single-family rental space in the last quarter. It's probably underestimated because there were some additional sales in our communities that other folks are investing in and renting that aren't captured in that number. But it was about 1,000, and our SFR program itself was a little bit more than 700 during the quarter.

作為一家公司，我們在上個季度出售了大約 1,000 套房屋給單戶出租空間。這可能被低估了，因為在我們的社區中有一些其他人正在投資和出租的額外銷售，而這些銷售並未包含在該數字中。但它大約是 1,000，而我們的 SFR 計劃本身在本季度略高於 700。

Let me just add to that and say that embedded in your question, I think, is the question of what percentage and are we ramping up the Quarterra part of our SFR program. And the fact -- the reality is that our program has taken a very disciplined approach to stepping back and waiting for the market to kind of reconcile itself. So contrary to what you might have thought, we're probably selling less to our own program and more to other SFR programs outside of Lennar.

讓我補充一下，我認為，嵌入在您的問題中的是百分比的問題，以及我們是否正在加強我們 SFR 計劃的 Quarterra 部分。事實是——現實是我們的計劃採取了一種非常有紀律的方法來退後一步，等待市場自我調節。因此，與您可能想像的相反，我們向自己的項目出售的產品可能更少，而向 Lennar 以外的其他 SFR 項目出售的產品更多。

Okay. No, that's really helpful and thank you for that disclosure there. It's very helpful. I guess second question just on the kind of the monthly cadence you described. I think given the 4% increase in incentives/base price reductions, combined with the fact that in August, we obviously saw mortgage rates pull back temporarily, it's not too surprising to see that kind of be the strongest month of the quarter.

好的。不，這真的很有幫助，感謝您在那裡的披露。這很有幫助。我想第二個問題只是關於你描述的每月節奏的那種。我認為，鑑於激勵措施/基本價格降低了 4%，再加上 8 月份我們明顯看到抵押貸款利率暫時回落這一事實，看到這種情況成為本季度最強勁的月份也就不足為奇了。

I think you mentioned that September was kind of following a similar trajectory, which, I guess, I'm a little surprised given the continued increase in mortgage rates or the reemergence in mortgage rates since the end of August. So have you further increased incentives or gotten even more aggressive on price reductions to kind of combat that move we've seen in rates? Or are you still seeing that momentum continue in spite of the higher rates?

我想你提到 9 月份的軌跡類似，我想，鑑於抵押貸款利率的持續上升或自 8 月底以來抵押貸款利率的重新出現，我有點驚訝。那麼，您是否進一步增加了激勵措施，或者在降價方面變得更加積極，以應對我們在利率方面看到的那種行動？或者，儘管利率較高，您是否仍然看到這種勢頭仍在繼續？

Let me clarify something. So for Q3, our incentives were about 4.5%. There was probably about 3% that was base price reduction on top of the incentive with the balance being somewhat mix oriented to a lower price point.

讓我澄清一點。所以對於第三季度，我們的激勵措施約為 4.5%。除了激勵措施之外，可能還有大約 3% 的基礎降價，其餘部分則以較低的價格點為導向。

As we move into -- we actually have been fairly consistent with where we were in the third quarter and in August. From a pricing standpoint, we're just slight -- ticked up slightly from an incentive standpoint. Our actual net sales price is up higher than it was in August. That might be mix.

隨著我們進入 - 我們實際上與第三季度和八月份的情況相當一致。從定價的角度來看，我們只是輕微的——從激勵的角度來看略有上升。我們的實際淨銷售價格高於 8 月份。那可能是混合的。

And from a cancellation rate, we're right on top of where we were for the quarter. So we are -- and from a sales pace standpoint, we're very consistent with where we were in August. So we haven't seen any dramatic changes. I think what this is really demonstrating is we really fine-tuned our sales execution strategy.

從取消率來看，我們正處於本季度的最高水平。所以我們 - 從銷售速度的角度來看，我們與八月份的情況非常一致。所以我們還沒有看到任何戲劇性的變化。我認為這真正表明我們確實微調了我們的銷售執行策略。

Got it. That's great to hear.

知道了。聽到這個消息我很高興。

We are finding the market, and we are finding the market primarily with primary buyers. And as we find the market, there's demand out there, but the demand needs affordability. So that's basically what's happening.

我們正在尋找市場，我們主要是通過主要買家來尋找市場。當我們找到市場時，那裡有需求，但需求需要負擔得起。所以這基本上就是正在發生的事情。

To that point, Stuart, if I could squeak in one more. It sounds like many of your competitors have been a bit more reluctant to be as aggressive as you have on the pricing side. So I'm curious if you're seeing more builders of late kind of respond in force to try to match what you guys are doing and presumably 1 or 2 of the other larger builders are doing? Or is there really a clear divergence right now in terms of strategies out there, some builders trying to hold on to margin as long as possible and others trying to find the market as you guys are doing?

到那時，斯圖爾特，如果我能再吱一聲。聽起來您的許多競爭對手都不太願意像您在定價方面那樣激進。所以我很好奇你是否看到更多的後期建造者積極回應試圖匹配你們正在做的事情，並且大概有 1 或 2 個其他較大的建造者正在做？還是說現在在策略方面真的存在明顯的分歧，一些建築商試圖盡可能長時間地保持利潤率，而另一些建築商則試圖像你們一樣尋找市場？

Look, it's a mixed bag. There are some builders that are going along with the program that we have in place. There are a lot of others that have different strategies.

看，這是一個混合包。有一些建設者正在配合我們現有的計劃。還有很多其他人有不同的策略。

The smaller builders are reacting a little differently than some of the larger builders. And that's just -- that adds to the choppiness of the market condition.

較小的建築商的反應與一些較大的建築商略有不同。這只是 - 這增加了市場狀況的波動。

All I can tell you is that market by market, we know exactly what the competitors are doing. We see the inventory buildups where they're happening. We see the migration to sell to price, hold and wait and ultimately, falling off the cliff and saying reconciliation.

我能告訴你的是，逐個市場，我們確切地知道競爭對手在做什麼。我們看到它們正在發生的庫存積累。我們看到了向價格出售、持有和等待，最終跌落懸崖並說和解的遷移。

Each of these plays out in each market. And that's why we emphasize our dynamic pricing model to each of our divisions because that's what keeps us tuned into the competitive field exactly what's happening and making the judgments that are necessary.

這些中的每一個都在每個市場中發揮作用。這就是為什麼我們向每個部門強調我們的動態定價模型，因為這讓我們能夠準確地了解競爭領域正在發生的事情並做出必要的判斷。

I think Rick said it really well. This is an art, not a science. And we are playing the game in each market that exists by knowing what the competitive field is and reacting to it.

我認為瑞克說得非常好。這是一門藝術，而不是一門科學。我們通過了解競爭領域並對其做出反應，在每個存在的市場中玩遊戲。

John Lovallo with UBS.

瑞銀的約翰·洛瓦洛。

The first one is, can you just help us on the sequential walk-in gross margin from 3Q to 4Q? It's about 270 basis points at the midpoint. How much is base price reductions? How much is other incentives, rising costs? And how much of an offset is sort of the typical seasonal operating leverage?

第一個問題是，您能幫我們計算從 3Q 到 4Q 的連續毛利率嗎？中點約為 270 個基點。底價降低多少？其他激勵措施是多少，成本上升？典型的季節性經營槓桿有多少抵消？

Rick, why don't you take that?

瑞克，你為什麼不拿那個？

Yes. So putting cost aside, I would say that half of it was probably sales incentives. 40%, 30% of it was base price reductions, and the balance was probably some cost and mix. And Jon?

是的。所以撇開成本不談，我想說其中一半可能是銷售激勵。 40%，30%是基礎價格的降低，其餘的可能是一些成本和組合。喬恩呢？

I think that's right. As we've talked about on prior calls, the second half and in the fourth quarter will be our peak construction cost as the highest lumber work through that. And that will start coming down at the very end of the fourth quarter and into the first quarter.

我認為這是對的。正如我們在之前的電話會議中談到的那樣，下半年和第四季度將是我們的最高建築成本，因為這是最高的木材工作。這將在第四季度末到第一季度開始下降。

So that makes sense what you said, Rick. And clearly, the biggest driver is what we're doing to adjust to market to keep our sales price.

所以你說的很有道理，瑞克。顯然，最大的驅動力是我們正在做的調整以適應市場以保持我們的銷售價格。

Yes. Let me just add to that and say that in addition to pricing and base price as well as incentives management, we're also managing our backlog, recognizing that as prices adjust, we also sometimes have to go back to our backlog. We don't want to turn yesterday's sales and customers into a cancellation.

是的。讓我補充一點，除了定價和基本價格以及激勵管理之外，我們還在管理我們的積壓工作，認識到隨著價格調整，我們有時也必須回到我們的積壓工作。我們不想把昨天的銷售和客戶變成取消。

And so there's some administration of that as well. And so a lot of moving parts in the walk from third quarter to fourth quarter margins. It's not as linear as just what the new sales are.

所以也有一些管理。因此，從第三季度到第四季度的利潤率有很多移動部件。它不像新銷售那樣線性。

Okay. That's helpful, guys. And then maybe switching gears to Quarterra. Third-party equity commitments for the asset management business, I think, were $4 billion last quarter. What has that grown to? And how much third-party capital has been committed to the land strategies?

好的。這很有幫助，伙計們。然後可能會切換到 Quarterra。我認為，上一季度資產管理業務的第三方股權承諾為 40 億美元。發展到什麼地步了？又有多少第三方資本投入到土地戰略中？

We haven't put those numbers out, so I really can't put those numbers on the table. We're a bit restricted as to what we can disclose at this point. And we're going to do something more comprehensive and putting together a conference call to really let all of those pieces and numbers be known as we're getting ready to actually go public. So I say it again, stay tuned.

我們還沒有公佈這些數字，所以我真的不能把這些數字放在桌面上。在這一點上，我們可以披露的內容有點受限。我們將做一些更全面的事情，並召開電話會議，讓所有這些部分和數字真正為人所知，因為我們正準備真正上市。所以我再說一遍，敬請期待。

Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

Just wanted to get a sense directionally for gross margins at least as we think past the fourth quarter. And obviously, I totally appreciate you're not giving guidance for a good reason at this point for fiscal '23.

至少就像我們認為的第四季度之後的那樣，只是想對毛利率有方向性的了解。顯然，我非常感謝您在此時為 23 財年提供指導是有充分理由的。

But as we think about maybe the first quarter or 2, and you look at the 4.5% average incentive for the quarter, and you ended August around 6%. So you turn about out another 150 bps, if we just kind of held things there and also held costs, and I know you're working hard on costs as well, but is that a good starting point to think about the difference between first quarter '23 gross margins and what you're doing currently, that additional 150 bps again holding other understandably key variables constant?

但是，當我們考慮可能是第一季度或第二季度時，您查看該季度 4.5% 的平均激勵，您在 8 月份結束時約為 6%。因此，如果我們只是在那裡持有東西並持有成本，那麼您會再增加 150 個基點，而且我知道您也在努力降低成本，但這是一個很好的起點來考慮第一季度之間的差異'23 毛利率和你目前在做什麼，額外的 150 個基點再次保持其他可以理解的關鍵變量不變？

So Mike, I think the best way for me to answer this is to say that we have decidedly not given guidance for the fourth quarter because there are so many moving parts. We recognize the best we can do is give some boundaries to help the modeling.

所以邁克，我認為我回答這個問題的最佳方式是說我們肯定沒有為第四季度提供指導，因為有很多活動部分。我們認識到我們能做的最好的事情就是給出一些界限來幫助建模。

I think that there -- it gets even more complicated as we go out to the first quarter. So we're not going to wade into those waters simply because there's a lot moving around.

我認為那裡 - 隨著我們進入第一季度，它變得更加複雜。因此，我們不會僅僅因為有很多東西四處走動，就涉足那些水域。

As we sat yesterday and listened to Chair Powell lay out kind of his thinking for the way forward, it just helps us recognize that we're living in a dynamic environment that's going to change a lot of things month by month, quarter by quarter. And we're focused on week by week.

當我們昨天坐下來聽鮑威爾主席闡述他對前進道路的看法時，它只是幫助我們認識到我們生活在一個動態的環境中，每個月一個季度都會改變很多事情。我們每週都專注於。

Our management team gets together every other day to coordinate, to find alignment and to look at the patterns that are revealing themselves real-time in the marketplace, and each market is different. So I guess that's a big and long-winded excuse, but we're not really going to weigh in on our first quarter numbers right now.

我們的管理團隊每隔一天就會聚在一起進行協調，尋找一致性並查看市場上實時顯示的模式，每個市場都是不同的。所以我想這是一個大而冗長的藉口，但我們現在不會真正衡量我們的第一季度數據。

Okay. Appreciate that. I guess similarly at the risk of asking another question that might be hard to answer, but directionally, how should we think about community count in '23? Obviously, this year, you're looking to end with some sequential growth 3Q to 4Q.

好的。感謝。我想同樣冒著提出另一個可能難以回答的問題的風險，但在方向上，我們應該如何考慮 23 年的社區人數？顯然，今年，您希望以 3Q 到 4Q 的連續增長結束。

Given the moderation in sales pace, obviously, delays and such can impact the rate of openings. But is growth, how we should think about next year? And if so, any sense of degree of magnitude?

鑑於銷售速度放緩，顯然，延誤等會影響開業率。但就是增長，明年我們應該怎麼想？如果是這樣，任何程度的大小感？

Great question. We've given that a considerable amount of thought. I'm going to turn to Rick in a second on this because this is his favorite topic.

好問題。我們已經考慮了很多。稍後我將轉向 Rick，因為這是他最喜歡的話題。

But we are thinking about community count growth into next year. I can't prove it right now, but we think that there's going to be some comparable reconciliation in land pricing, which will enable us to find opportunities that will rightsize for current market conditions. But we're going to have to wait and see on that. Rick, could you add to that?

但我們正在考慮明年的社區人數增長。我現在無法證明這一點，但我們認為在土地定價方面會有一些可比的和解，這將使我們能夠找到適合當前市場條件的機會。但我們將不得不拭目以待。瑞克，你能補充一下嗎？

Well, community count is so tricky because it has -- it's impacted by your sales pace and your existing communities, development timing, whether it's internal development or third-party developers and whether they get the communities done at the appropriate time.

嗯，社區數量非常棘手，因為它受到您的銷售速度和現有社區、開發時間、無論是內部開發還是第三方開發人員以及他們是否在適當的時間完成社區的影響。

Sitting here today, we believe our community count will increase in 2023, probably a single-digit, low single-digit increase. And that could be skewed by what happens in the land market because as other builders may walk away from deals that have finished home sites that will look good for us from an underwriting standpoint because of our low-cost structure, we may find some opportunities to add to community. But as Stuart said, it's a tough read right now, but it looks slightly up.

今天坐在這裡，我們相信我們的社區人數將在 2023 年增加，可能是個位數的低個位數增長。這可能會受到土地市場上發生的事情的影響，因為由於我們的低成本結構，其他建築商可能會放棄完成從承保角度來看對我們有利的房屋交易，我們可能會找到一些機會添加到社區。但正如斯圖爾特所說，現在讀起來很難，但看起來有點向上。

Thank you, Mike. All right. We'll wrap it up there. I want to thank everyone for joining us. These are tricky times, but this is a seasoned management team that's been there -- been here before.

謝謝你，邁克。好的。我們會把它包起來。我要感謝大家加入我們。這是一個棘手的時期，但這是一支經驗豐富的管理團隊——曾經來過這裡。

We have a game plan strategy. You can expect that we're going to be adhering to that strategy with certainty and look forward to reporting back as we get to the end of the fourth quarter. Thank you, everyone.

我們有一個遊戲計劃策略。您可以期待我們將堅定地堅持這一戰略，並期待在第四季度末進行報告。謝謝大家。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may go ahead and disconnect at this time.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以繼續斷開連接。