Lennar Corp (LEN) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Lennar's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加 Lennar 第四季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Today's conference is being recorded.

今天的會議正在錄製中。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Alex Lumpkin for the reading of the forward-looking statement.

我現在將把電話轉給 Alex Lumpkin 以閱讀前瞻性聲明。

Thank you, and good morning. Today's conference call may include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding Lennar's business financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies and prospects. Forward-looking statements represent only Lennar's estimates on the date of this conference call and are not any assurance as to actual future results.

謝謝你，早上好。今天的電話會議可能包括前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Lennar 的業務財務狀況、運營結果、現金流、戰略和前景的陳述。前瞻性陳述僅代表 Lennar 在本次電話會議當日的估計，並不對未來的實際結果作出任何保證。

Because forward-looking statements relate to matters that have not yet occurred, these statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could affect future results and may cause Lennar's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements.

由於前瞻性陳述涉及尚未發生的事項，因此這些陳述本身就存在風險和不確定性。許多因素可能會影響未來的結果，並可能導致 Lennar 的實際活動或結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的活動和結果存在重大差異。

These factors include those described in yesterday's press release and our SEC filings, including those under the caption Risk Factors contained in Lennar's annual report on Form 10-K most recently filed with the SEC. Please note that Lennar assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

這些因素包括昨天的新聞稿和我們提交給 SEC 的文件中所述的因素，包括 Lennar 最近提交給 SEC 的 10-K 表格年度報告中標題為風險因素的因素。請注意，Lennar 不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

I would now like to introduce your host, Mr. Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman. Sir, you may begin.

我現在想介紹一下主持人，執行主席斯圖爾特·米勒先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Great, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining. This morning, I'm here in Miami, joined by Diane Bessette, our Chief Financial Officer; David Collins, our Controller and Vice President; Bruce Gross, CEO of Lennar Financial Services; and of course, Alex, who you just heard from.

太好了，大家早上好。感謝您的加入。今天早上，我在邁阿密，我們的首席財務官黛安·貝塞特 (Diane Bessette) 也來了；我們的財務總監兼副總裁 David Collins； Lennar Financial Services 首席執行官 Bruce Gross；當然還有 Alex，你剛剛聽到的消息。

We also have joining us Rick Beckwitt, who's in Colorado; and Jon Jaffe, who is actually here in Miami, but not in the office.

我們還邀請了來自科羅拉多州的 Rick Beckwitt。還有 Jon Jaffe，他實際上在邁阿密，但不在辦公室。

As usual, I'm going to give a macro and strategic Lennar overview. After my introductory remarks, Rick is going to talk about market strength around the country, land and community count as well. Jon will give an update on the supply chain, production and construction costs. And as usual, Diane will give detailed financial highlights and additional guidance. And then we'll answer as many questions as we can. And as usual, please limit to 1 question and 1 follow-up.

像往常一樣，我將給出一個宏觀和戰略的 Lennar 概述。在我的介紹性發言之後，里克將談論全國的市場實力、土地和社區數量。 Jon 將提供有關供應鏈、生產和建設成本的最新信息。和往常一樣，黛安將提供詳細的財務亮點和額外的指導。然後我們將盡可能多地回答問題。和往常一樣，請限制為 1 個問題和 1 個跟進。

So let me go ahead and begin and start by saying that our fourth quarter and full year 2021 reflect extraordinary focus and determination by Lennar's management and operating teams across the country While the housing market remains very strong in all of our major markets, the ability to actually execute and deliver results has been challenged and tested by the supply chain that is all but broken the workforce that is short in numbers, while driven to produce more and the never-ending competition for scarce entitled land assets.

因此，讓我繼續開始，首先要說的是，我們的 2021 年第四季度和全年反映了 Lennar 全國管理和運營團隊的非凡專注和決心雖然我們所有主要市場的房地產市場仍然非常強勁，但能夠實際執行和交付結果已經受到供應鏈的挑戰和考驗，供應鏈幾乎破壞了數量不足的勞動力，同時推動生產更多和對稀缺土地資產的永無止境的競爭。

Lennar's managers and operators have been absolute warriors recognizing that our customers need and want their homes and the burden of a strong but stressed market simply can't stand in the way. The proud associates of Lennar are pleased to report an excellent quarter and year of accomplishments in spite of the elusive garage doors and short supply, the unimaginable scarcity of paint, the cabinet deliveries postponed by labor shortage, the electric meters, the windows and the countless other their stumbling blocks and obstacles that have presented intermittently to ensure chaos in a production cycle that is difficult even everything is going right. The supply chain affects both land and construction and that will continue into the first quarter of 2022 and beyond.

Lennar 的經理和運營商是絕對的勇士，他們認識到我們的客戶需要並且想要他們的家，而強大但壓力重重的市場的負擔根本無法阻擋。 Lennar 自豪的員工很高興地報告，儘管車庫門難以捉摸和供應短缺，油漆難以想像的稀缺，櫥櫃交付因勞動力短缺而推遲，電錶、窗戶和無數其他他們間歇性出現的絆腳石和障礙，以確保生產週期中的混亂，即使一切順利，也很難做到。供應鏈影響土地和建築，並將持續到 2022 年第一季度及以後。

But as we enter the second half of the year, we expect that the supply chain disruption will be stabilized and mitigated by the greater number of starts that we have started, by the lessons learned and incorporated in our Builder of Choice relationships, and by the simplicity embedded in our Everything's Included offerings.

但隨著我們進入下半年，我們預計供應鏈中斷將得到穩定和緩解，因為我們已經開始了更多的啟動，通過我們吸取的經驗教訓並將其納入我們的選擇關係中，以及通過我們的“全包”產品中嵌入了簡單性。

And let me say that Kemp Gillis and his extraordinary purchasing team have done an amazing job of navigating this difficult landscape. I also want to warmly acknowledge Jon and Rick, our co-CEOs, who have chosen not to sit on high perch in difficult times but instead went to the problem and sort for themselves so they could be part of the solution.

讓我說，坎普·吉利斯和他非凡的採購團隊在駕馭這一艱難環境方面做得非常出色。我還要熱烈感謝我們的聯合首席執行官 Jon 和 Rick，他們選擇在困難時期不坐在高位，而是親自解決問題，自己解決問題，這樣他們就可以成為解決方案的一部分。

Together, as partners, they visited each of our 38 divisions over a 6-week period met with our production and purchasing teams in the field, got a tangible feel for the most significant issues and translated their visits into solutions. Time, focus and attention, problems are being solved, and that is simply the Lennar way.

作為合作夥伴，他們在 6 週內訪問了我們的 38 個部門，會見了我們在現場的生產和採購團隊，對最重要的問題有切實的感受，並將他們的訪問轉化為解決方案。時間、注意力和注意力，問題正在得到解決，這就是 Lennar 的方式。

Even with the challenges in the market, in our fourth quarter, we delivered just under 18,000 homes which is every single home that could be delivered as our customers expected in one of their home for the holidays.

即使面臨市場挑戰，在我們的第四季度，我們也交付了不到 18,000 套房屋，這是我們的客戶期望在他們的一個家中過節時可以交付的每一處房屋。

We grew our deliveries 11% year-over-year, while our revenue from home sales grew 24% to almost $8.5 billion. And by remaining laser-focused on orderly targeted growth with our sales pace tightly matched with our pace of production, we drove a 300 basis point gross margin improvement to 28%. Alongside gross margin, we recorded a significant improvement in operating efficiency as our SG&A decreased 150 basis points to 6%. We continue to limit our land -- excuse me, we continue to limit our sales pace especially as cycle times expand in favor of a significantly benefited bottom line.

我們的交付量同比增長 11%，而房屋銷售收入增長 24%，達到近 85 億美元。通過繼續專注於有序的目標增長，我們的銷售速度與我們的生產速度緊密匹配，我們將毛利率提高了 300 個基點，達到 28%。除了毛利率，我們的運營效率也有了顯著提高，因為我們的 SG&A 下降了 150 個基點至 6%。我們繼續限制我們的土地——對不起，我們繼續限制我們的銷售速度，特別是隨著周期時間的延長，有利於顯著受益的底線。

Accordingly, our net new orders grew 2%, and they're expected to contract slightly in first quarter. With our sales discipline, our net margin increased 460 basis points to a company all-time high of over 22% in our fourth quarter.

因此，我們的淨新訂單增長了 2%，預計第一季度將小幅收縮。憑藉我們的銷售紀律，我們的淨利潤在第四季度增長了 460 個基點，達到公司歷史最高水平，超過 22%。

This drove a 50% after-tax, and before mark-to-market items, bottom line improvement in net earnings to over $1.3 billion this year. So with our focus on bottom line over top line improvement, 24% revenue growth drove 50% bottom line growth.

這推動了 50% 的稅後和按市值計價的項目，今年淨收益的底線提高到超過 13 億美元。因此，由於我們關注底線而不是頂線改善，24% 的收入增長推動了 50% 的底線增長。

Additionally, our Financial Services group continued to perform exceptionally, adding $111 million of earnings while supporting the closing of every possible home, and making the closing process as joyful as possible in the current environment.

此外，我們的金融服務部門繼續表現出色，增加了 1.11 億美元的收入，同時支持關閉所有可能的房屋，並使關閉過程在當前環境下盡可能愉快。

With the strong performance of our core operating divisions, our balance sheet and returns continued to improve as well. Even after the repurchase of 10 million shares of stock, and the reduction of $850 million of debt in the quarter, we reported a cash balance of over $2.7 billion and an 18.3% debt-to-total cap ratio, while our return on equity grew almost 800 basis points year-over-year to 22.6%.

隨著我們核心運營部門的強勁表現，我們的資產負債表和回報也繼續改善。即使在回購了 1000 萬股股票並在本季度減少了 8.5 億美元的債務後，我們報告的現金餘額超過 27 億美元，債務與總市值的比率為 18.3%，而我們的股本回報率也在增長同比增長近 800 個基點至 22.6%。

All in all, our core operating numbers are very strong in the fourth quarter and we expect that strength to continue into 2022 and beyond. From a macro perspective, the housing market remains strong across the country. Demand has been consistently strong, while the supply of new and existing homes remains limited.

總而言之，我們的核心運營數據在第四季度非常強勁，我們預計這種優勢將持續到 2022 年及以後。從宏觀上看，全國房地產市場依然強勁。需求一直強勁，而新屋和現有房屋的供應仍然有限。

Since new home construction cannot ramp quickly enough to fill the demand, short supply is likely to remain for some time to come. Even though home prices have moved much higher, overall affordability remains strong. Interest rates are still very attractive and personal savings for deposits are strong.

由於新房建設無法迅速滿足需求，供應短缺可能會持續一段時間。儘管房價已經上漲了很多，但整體的負擔能力仍然很強。利率仍然非常有吸引力，個人儲蓄存款強勁。

Wages for the average family seem to be rising faster than monthly payments and those higher wages are starting to be reflected in government numbers and unfortunately, in inflation as well. The upward spiral of housing purchases is accelerating. Millennials are forming families, apartment dwellers are purchasing first-time homes, first-time homes are selling at higher prices and appreciated equity is enabling first-time move-ups.

普通家庭的工資增長速度似乎快於每月支付的工資，而這些更高的工資開始反映在政府數據中，不幸的是，也反映在通貨膨脹中。購房的螺旋上升正在加速。千禧一代正在組建家庭，公寓居民正在購買首次置業，首次置業正在以更高的價格出售，而增值資產正在促成首次搬遷。

The move-up home is selling at strong pricing with increased equity, enabling customers to purchase an even larger home, all this while supply is limited for everyone and the iBuyer and single-family for rent participants are providing additional liquidity to the marketplace.

搬遷房屋以強勁的價格出售，淨值增加，使客戶能夠購買更大的房屋，而所有這一切都是有限的，而 iBuyer 和單戶出租參與者正在為市場提供額外的流動性。

Against this backdrop, and although there has been some turbulence through the year, 2021 has been an extraordinary strategic year for our company. We established a strategic plan that included cash flow generation and debt reduction in order to improve returns on capital and equity. We also articulated a drive and desire to have a strong focus on new technology-driven efficiencies and in our core business while we spin ancillary businesses and become a pure-play homebuilding company.

在這種背景下，儘管這一年出現了一些動盪，但 2021 年對我們公司來說是非同尋常的戰略年。我們制定了一項戰略計劃，其中包括產生現金流和減少債務，以提高資本和股本回報率。我們還表達了強烈關注新技術驅動的效率和我們的核心業務的動力和願望，同時我們旋轉輔助業務並成為一家純粹的住宅建築公司。

Our 2021 performance reflects focus on these strategies and 2022 will be an extension of the same focus. In 2021, we generated almost $3 billion of homebuilding cash flow to enable a reduction of debt by $1.3 billion and a purchase of 14 million shares of stock for a 4.5% reduction in share count.

我們 2021 年的表現反映了對這些戰略的關注，而 2022 年將是這一關注點的延伸。 2021 年，我們產生了近 30 億美元的房屋建設現金流，從而減少了 13 億美元的債務，併購買了 1400 萬股股票，股票數量減少了 4.5%。

Accordingly, our debt to total cap is below 20%, and we have $2.7 billion of cash on hand. Our total debt is [$4.7] billion and will continue to be reduced. We also reduced our landholdings to 3 years as promised and increased our land controlled versus owned to 59%, exceeding our goal at the beginning of the year.

因此，我們的債務總額低於 20%，我們手頭有 27 億美元的現金。我們的總債務為 [47 億美元]，並將繼續減少。我們還按照承諾將我們的土地持有期減少到 3 年，並將我們的土地控制與自有增加到 59%，超過了我們年初的目標。

We have almost certainly established Lennar as a technology-enabled and engaged company. We invested in numerous new technologies while 8 prior investments were either sold or went public, which resulted in significant extraordinary profit for the company this year. Perhaps more importantly, we have invested in companies that have enabled improvement in our core business while we have benefited both through the investment and through incorporation in our core.

我們幾乎可以肯定將 Lennar 打造為一家技術驅動型和敬業度高的公司。我們投資了許多新技術，而之前的 8 項投資要么被出售要么上市，這為公司今年帶來了可觀的非凡利潤。也許更重要的是，我們投資的公司能夠改善我們的核心業務，同時我們通過投資和融入我們的核心業務而受益。

But this is just the beginning. We are working with numerous additional technology companies that are working to solve some of the most difficult problems facing our industry. As a case in point, we're working to solve the issues in supply chain, labor shortages and production using innovative technology in innovative ways.

但這僅僅是開始。我們正在與許多其他技術公司合作，這些公司正在努力解決我們行業面臨的一些最困難的問題。例如，我們正在努力以創新的方式使用創新技術解決供應鏈、勞動力短缺和生產方面的問題。

Many of you have read and commented on our investment in ICON, the 3D printing building company in Austin, Texas. We expect to start our first 3D-printed community in Austin sometime in 2022 and hope to reduce labor, material and time as we help refine this structural production process. Alongside ICON, we have invested in 2 additional innovative production companies called Veev and Cover, and they're engaged in innovative factory-based manufactured solutions to production. Both Veev and Cover are focused on a more comprehensive solution beyond just the structural components and encompass mechanical, electrical and plumbing solutions in the factory as well.

你們中的許多人已經閱讀並評論了我們對位於德克薩斯州奧斯汀的 3D 打印建築公司 ICON 的投資。我們希望在 2022 年的某個時候在奧斯汀建立我們的第一個 3D 打印社區，並希望在我們幫助改進這種結構性生產過程時減少勞動力、材料和時間。除了 ICON，我們還投資了另外 2 家名為 Veev 和 Cover 的創新生產公司，他們從事基於工廠的創新生產解決方案。 Veev 和 Cover 都專注於更全面的解決方案，而不僅僅是結構部件，還包括工廠中的機械、電氣和管道解決方案。

These companies are working on each of the major components of the home and building better and more precise delivery systems that will reduce the need for labor and enhance precision and cycle time. All of these companies are focused on the most frictional and problematic elements of the production process and driving towards solutions for the industry.

這些公司正在研究家庭的每個主要組件，並構建更好、更精確的交付系統，以減少對勞動力的需求並提高精度和周期時間。所有這些公司都專注於生產過程中最摩擦和最有問題的元素，並為行業尋求解決方案。

Given today's supply chain and workforce constraints, we should all be interested, if not laser focused on the success of these critical solutions, Lennar most certainly is. And finally, 2021 has, in fact, been a year of focus on the strategy of becoming a pure-play homebuilding company. We have been hard at work refining our SpinCo that I've described in the past.

鑑於今天的供應鍊和勞動力限制，我們都應該感興趣，如果不是激光專注於這些關鍵解決方案的成功，Lennar 肯定是。最後，事實上，2021 年是專注於成為一家純粹的住宅建築公司戰略的一年。我們一直在努力改進我過去描述的 SpinCo。

As you can see from our balance sheet and cash flow, the case for SpinCo has become more compelling with each quarter's successes. We have excess capacity and balance sheet to spin our well-established ancillary businesses, and we expect to complete a tax-free spin by the second or third quarter of 2022.

從我們的資產負債表和現金流可以看出，隨著每個季度的成功，剝離公司的理由變得更加引人注目。我們有過剩的產能和資產負債表來發展我們完善的輔助業務，我們預計將在 2022 年第二或第三季度完成免稅旋轉。

To that end, in November, we took our first significant in-depth to complete the spin by formally filing a request for a private letter ruling from the IRS. We are getting very close to being prepared with defined business lines, a refined business plan and a balance sheet. We expect to file our at-first confidential Form 10 by the end of January or beginning of February, at which time we expect to have a name other than SpinCo and a management team in place.

為此，在 11 月，我們通過正式提交 IRS 的私信裁決請求，進行了第一次重大的深入調查以完成旋轉。我們正在為明確的業務線、完善的業務計劃和資產負債表做好準備。我們預計在 1 月底或 2 月初提交我們最初的機密表格 10，屆時我們預計將擁有除 SpinCo 之外的名稱和管理團隊。

Someone had asked about the time we have taken to disclose greater detail. The fact is we're building a durable and sustainable public company that has to hit the ground running on day 1. To that end, Matt Zames as senior adviser to the company has been focusing on the configuration and execution of our SpinCo strategy. In addition to and supporting that, Jeff McCall, and a sequestered team of senior internal leaders, have modeled various configurations with different asset composition that have focused on getting both the program and the story right for the public markets.

有人問我們花了多少時間來披露更多細節。事實上，我們正在建立一家持久且可持續的上市公司，該公司必須在第一天就開始運作。為此，作為公司高級顧問的 Matt Zames 一直專注於我們的 SpinCo 戰略的配置和執行。除此之外，傑夫·麥考爾（Jeff McCall）和一個由高級內部領導組成的隔離團隊對具有不同資產構成的各種配置進行了建模，這些配置專注於使項目和故事都適合公開市場。

We have concluded that the Spin Company will be an asset-light asset management business that will have a limited balance sheet. Many of the assets that we targeted for spin originally will be either part of the limited balance sheet of SpinCo or will be monetized in the form of assets under management housed within the private equity verticals in or have been or will be resolved or monetized in other ways.

我們得出的結論是，Spin 公司將是一家資產負債表有限的輕資產資產管理公司。我們最初針對剝離的許多資產將成為剝離公司有限資產負債表的一部分，或者將以管理資產的形式貨幣化，這些資產位於私募股權垂直領域內，或者已經或將在其他領域解決或貨幣化方法。

The monetization has been and will be completed over the next year or so, and the cash proceeds will be deployed in Lennar to fortify our balance sheet or to continue to buy back stock on an opportunistic basis, and Lennar -- and when our stock is on sale, like today, we'll be purchasing. Three core verticals have been identified and business planned for the spin, and they are multifamily, single-family for rent and land strategies.

貨幣化已經並將在明年左右完成，現金收益將用於 Lennar 以鞏固我們的資產負債表或繼續在機會主義的基礎上回購股票，而 Lennar 以及當我們的股票特價，就像今天一樣，我們將購買。已經確定了三個核心垂直領域並規劃了業務，它們是多戶型、單戶型出租和土地戰略。

Each of these verticals already have raised third-party capital and our active asset managers. LMC, our multifamily platform has approximately $9 billion of gross capital under management and is raising its third fund.

這些垂直領域中的每一個都已經籌集了第三方資金和我們活躍的資產管理公司。 LMC 是我們的多戶家庭平台，管理著大約 90 億美元的總資本，並且正在籌集其第三隻基金。

LSFR, our growing single-family for rent platform currently manages approximately $1.5 billion of equity already raised. And our land strategies platform is still being refined for SpinCo and will provide more detail in the near future. The remaining Lennar Corporation will drive higher returns on our assets and equity base and the spin will not result in a material reduction of either our bottom line or our earnings per share as we project them.

LSFR 是我們不斷發展的單戶出租平台，目前管理著已籌集的約 15 億美元的股權。我們的土地戰略平台仍在為 SpinCo 完善，並將在不久的將來提供更多細節。剩餘的 Lennar Corporation 將推動我們的資產和股權基礎獲得更高的回報，並且在我們預測時，分拆不會導致我們的底線或每股收益的實質性減少。

Bottom line, this was a year of hard work at Lennar in the face of many issues, and there were no feet up on the desk during the year. So let me wrap up and conclude by saying that we have simply never been better positioned financially, organizationally and technologically to thrive and grow in this evolving housing market.

歸根結底，這是 Lennar 面對許多問題而努力工作的一年，這一年中沒有人在辦公桌上站穩腳跟。因此，讓我結束並總結說，我們從未在財務、組織和技術上處於更好的位置，能夠在這個不斷發展的房地產市場中茁壯成長。

The market in general remains strong. While difficulties in the supply chain present challenges for Lennar and the industry, the housing market remains strong and supply of new and existing homes is very limited.

市場總體依然強勁。雖然供應鏈中的困難給 Lennar 和行業帶來了挑戰，但房地產市場依然強勁，新房和現有房的供應非常有限。

We remain focused on an orderly targeted growth strategy with our sales pace tightly matched with our pace of production. We focus on gross margin by selling in step with production while controlling costs and reducing our SG&A, and therefore, driving our net margin.

我們仍然專注於有針對性的增長戰略，我們的銷售速度與我們的生產速度緊密匹配。我們通過與生產同步銷售來關注毛利率，同時控製成本並降低我們的 SG&A，從而提高我們的淨利潤率。

As we look to 2022, we see continued strength in the market and double-digit growth for Lennar. As we noted in our press release, we're projecting 12,500 deliveries at a 26.75% margin in the first quarter and 67,000 deliveries at a 27% to 27.5% margin for the year. At this pace, we will have a strong bottom line with a projected spin-off in the second or third quarter, 2022 will be another record year for Lennar. And with that, let me turn it over to Rick.

展望 2022 年，我們看到市場的持續強勁和 Lennar 的兩位數增長。正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，我們預計第一季度交付量為 12,500 輛，利潤率為 26.75%，全年交付量為 67,000 輛，利潤率為 27% 至 27.5%。以這種速度，我們將擁有強勁的底線，預計在第二或第三季度分拆，2022 年將是 Lennar 又一個創紀錄的一年。有了這個，讓我把它交給里克。

Thanks, Stuart. As you can tell from Stuart's opening comments, the housing market is very strong. Our team is extremely well coordinated, and our financial results continue to benefit from a solid execution of our core operating strategies. Key to that has been running a fine-tuned homebuilding machine where we carefully match homebuilding production with sales on a community-by-community basis.

謝謝，斯圖爾特。從 Stuart 的開場評論可以看出，房地產市場非常強勁。我們的團隊協調得非常好，我們的財務業績繼續受益於我們核心運營戰略的穩健執行。其關鍵是運行一台經過微調的住宅建築機器，我們在該機器上仔細地將住宅建築生產與社區逐個社區的銷售相匹配。

We have continued to strategically sell our homes later in the construction cycle to maximize sales prices and to offset potential cost increases. To that end, we have slowed sales to generate higher profits. Our fourth quarter results prove out the success of this strategy as we achieved gross margin increases of 300 basis points year-over-year and 70 basis points sequentially.

我們繼續在建設週期後期戰略性地出售我們的房屋，以最大限度地提高銷售價格並抵消潛在的成本增加。為此，我們放慢了銷售速度以產生更高的利潤。我們的第四季度業績證明了這一戰略的成功，因為我們實現了毛利率同比增長 300 個基點和環比增長 70 個基點。

During the fourth quarter, we started 4.5 homes per community, sold 4.3 homes per community, and we ended the quarter with less than 160 completed unsold homes across our entire footprint. This production, margin-driven and sales-focused program will continue to improve margin, and lead to increased deliveries and profits in fiscal 2022.

在第四季度，我們在每個社區開始了 4.5 套房屋，每個社區售出了 4.3 套房屋，並且在本季度結束時，我們整個足跡中完成的未售出房屋不到 160 套。這一生產、利潤驅動和以銷售為重點的計劃將繼續提高利潤率，並導致 2022 財年的交付量和利潤增加。

In the fourth quarter, new orders, deliveries, gross margins were solid in each of our operating regions. We continue to achieve price increases and saw strength in all product cost categories from entry level to move up, and in our active adult communities.

第四季度，我們每個運營地區的新訂單、交付量和毛利率都很穩定。我們繼續實現價格上漲，並在從入門級到升級的所有產品成本類別以及我們活躍的成人社區中看到了優勢。

Here's some color on some of the stronger markets across the country. Florida continues to benefit from core local demand as well as in migration from the Northeast, the Midwest and the West Coast, which is driving both sales pace and price. Inventory is extremely limited.

這是全國一些較強勁市場的一些顏色。佛羅里達州繼續受益於當地的核心需求以及來自東北部、中西部和西海岸的移民，這推動了銷售速度和價格。庫存極其有限。

The hottest markets in Florida continue to be Naples and Sarasota in the Southwest, Miami and Dade and Broward in the Southeast, and Tampa. Orlando has also been sustaining a strong recovery with a significant rebound in tourism. These are all markets where we are the leading builder with the best brand position.

佛羅里達州最熱門的市場仍然是西南部的那不勒斯和薩拉索塔，東南部的邁阿密、戴德和布勞沃德以及坦帕。奧蘭多也一直在保持強勁復甦，旅遊業大幅反彈。在這些市場中，我們是具有最佳品牌地位的領先建設者。

In the Carolinas, Raleigh, Charlotte and Charleston are extremely strong markets. Inventory is very limited and the combination of core local demand and in-migration continues to push both sales pace and price. We are also the top builder in each of these markets.

在卡羅來納州，羅利、夏洛特和查爾斯頓是非常強勁的市場。庫存非常有限，核心本地需求和移民的結合繼續推動銷售速度和價格。我們也是這些市場中的頂級建築商。

Indianapolis continues to see strong and steady growth, the combination of in-migration from the northern markets in the West Coast as well as affordable housing and quality of living is driving sales pace and pricing. We're the largest builder in this market.

印第安納波利斯繼續保持強勁而穩定的增長，西海岸北部市場的移民以及經濟適用房和生活質量的結合正在推動銷售速度和定價。我們是這個市場上最大的建築商。

Texas continues to be the strongest state in the country within migration from East and West. The state's pro-business employer-friendly economy is driving corporate relocations and tremendous job growth, especially in the technology sector. The state is also benefiting from a recovery in the oil and gas sector.

德克薩斯州仍然是該國東西方移民中最強大的州。該州有利於企業的雇主友好型經濟正在推動企業搬遷和巨大的就業增長，尤其是在技術領域。該州還受益於石油和天然氣行業的複蘇。

The strongest market in the country continues to be Austin, with recent announcements by Samsung Electronics to invest $17 billion in a new chip manufacturing plant and Tesla's announcement to relocate their corporate headquarters to Austin. In addition to finishing construction this month on a 1.1 billion Gigafactory.

該國最強勁的市場仍然是奧斯汀，三星電子最近宣布投資 170 億美元建設新的芯片製造廠，特斯拉宣布將公司總部遷至奧斯汀。除了本月完成 11 億超級工廠的建設。

Two companies alone will create thousands of new jobs in Austin. The Colorado market picked up momentum in the fourth quarter. and we saw strength in both sales pace and price with over 1 sale per community matching our start space. Phoenix and Las Vegas continue to be strong markets both benefiting from business-friendly environments, real job growth and in migration from California.

僅兩家公司就將在奧斯汀創造數千個新工作崗位。科羅拉多市場在第四季度回升。我們看到了銷售速度和價格的優勢，每個社區的銷售量超過 1 次，與我們的起始空間相匹配。鳳凰城和拉斯維加斯繼續成為強大的市場，這兩個市場都受益於商業友好的環境、實際的就業增長和來自加利福尼亞的移民。

The casinos in Vegas are full and the city is benefiting from increased tourism. Phoenix is thriving because it's incredibly affordable. We entered the Boise market with 2 communities during the quarter and anticipate having 8 active communities by the end of 2022. This market continues to have strength driven by tremendous population growth, and we're excited about our land position and our Lennar Boise team.

維加斯的賭場已經爆滿，這座城市正受益於旅遊業的增長。鳳凰城蓬勃發展，因為它非常實惠。我們在本季度以 2 個社區進入博伊西市場，預計到 2022 年底將擁有 8 個活躍社區。這個市場在人口巨大增長的推動下繼續保持強勁勢頭，我們對我們的土地地位和我們的 Lennar Boise 團隊感到興奮。

The Pacific Northwest continues to be a strong market as natural supply constraints and constraints by urban growth boundaries limit production. In spite of being land constrained, we are seeing solid year-over-year growth in these markets as we expand our geographic footprint.

由於自然供應限制和城市增長邊界的限制限制了生產，太平洋西北部仍然是一個強大的市場。儘管土地有限，但隨著我們擴大地理足跡，我們看到這些市場的同比增長穩健。

The California markets remained strong, driven by the state's severe housing shortage there is more demand than supply. As reported last quarter, the Inland Empire, Sacramento and East Bay Area have remained at some of the strongest markets with homebuyers looking for square footage and affordability.

加州市場依然強勁，受該州嚴重住房短缺的推動，需求大於供應。正如上個季度所報導的那樣，內陸帝國、薩克拉門托和東灣區仍然是一些最強勁的市場，購房者正在尋找面積和負擔能力。

During the quarter, we saw a resurgence in the core markets of the Bay Area as more employees are returning to their offices or anticipate returning in the near future. As such, both core and Inland markets are firing on all cylinders. As I said, these are some of the strongest markets, but there is strength and depth of market across the country.

在本季度，隨著越來越多的員工返回辦公室或預計在不久的將來返回，我們看到灣區的核心市場復甦。因此，核心市場和內陸市場都在全力以赴。正如我所說，這些是一些最強大的市場，但全國各地的市場都有實力和深度。

Now I'd like to spend a few moments talking about growth and community count. During the fourth quarter, our community count increased 7% year-over-year and 6% sequentially as we continue to focus on growth in our existing and new markets. We expect our Q1 community count to be about 5% lower than year-end 2021.

現在我想花點時間談談增長和社區數量。在第四季度，我們的社區數量同比增長 7%，環比增長 6%，因為我們繼續專注於現有市場和新市場的增長。我們預計我們的第一季度社區數量將比 2021 年底減少約 5%。

However, our community count will start to increase in the second quarter and we should end 2022 with a low double-digit increase in community count year-over-year. While supply chain issues and inspection delays are impacting the timing of some community openings, we are in an excellent position for strong growth in 2022.

但是，我們的社區數量將在第二季度開始增加，到 2022 年底，社區數量將同比增長兩位數。雖然供應鏈問題和檢查延遲正在影響一些社區開放的時間，但我們處於 2022 年強勁增長的絕佳位置。

Our land pipeline remains robust with plenty of land in the queue to meet our goals over the next several years. We continue to see good buying opportunities in all of our markets and are confident this pipeline will produce strong community count growth for the next several years as we pursue deals to backfill beyond the near-term deals that are already owned and controlled.

我們的土地管道仍然強勁，有大量土地在排隊等待我們在未來幾年內實現目標。我們繼續在我們所有的市場中看到良好的購買機會，並相信這條管道將在未來幾年產生強勁的社區數量增長，因為我們尋求交易以回填已經擁有和控制的近期交易。

We are also pleased with the excellent progress we made on our land-light strategy as evidenced by our years owned supply of homesites improving to our previously stated goal of 3 years at the end of the fourth quarter from 3.5 years last year, and our controlled home site percentage increasing to 59% from 39% for the same period.

我們也對我們在土地照明戰略上取得的出色進展感到高興，這從我們多年擁有的住宅用地供應量從去年的 3.5 年到第四季度末提高到我們先前設定的 3 年目標就證明了這一點，並且我們控制的主站點百分比從同期的 39% 增加到 59%。

Equally important, these improvements were achieved while growing our overall owned and controlled land position by 44% year-over-year, with all of that increase in controlled home sites.

同樣重要的是，在實現這些改進的同時，我們擁有和控制的總體土地地位同比增長了 44%，所有這些增長都在受控的住宅用地中。

Given the progress, we've made, our new goal for 2022 is to end the year with 2.75 years of owned homesites and with a 65% control position. Our extreme focus on a land-lighter model generated significant cash flow during the quarter.

鑑於我們已經取得的進展，我們在 2022 年的新目標是到年底擁有 2.75 年的自有住宅並擁有 65% 的控制權。我們對土地更輕模型的極度關注在本季度產生了可觀的現金流。

We ended the quarter, as Stuart said, with $2.7 billion of cash, no borrowings on our $2.5 billion revolver. And this was after repurchasing just under $1 billion of our common stock and paying off $850 million in debt. I'd like to thank our team of great associates across the country for their focus and solid execution to make all this happen. Now I'd like to turn it over to Jon.

正如斯圖爾特所說，我們在本季度結束時擁有 27 億美元的現金，我們 25 億美元的左輪手槍沒有借款。這是在我們回購了不到 10 億美元的普通股並償還了 8.5 億美元的債務之後。我要感謝我們遍布全國的優秀員工團隊，他們的專注和紮實的執行使這一切成為現實。現在我想把它交給喬恩。

Thanks, Rick. I will now give an update on how we managed through the impact of supply chain disruptions in the fourth quarter and how we have planned for managing through them in 2022. As Stuart noted, we have had to deal with our fair share of disruptions. Similar to the third quarter, these disruptions are affecting different trades at different times and in different geographies. They are intermittent, and they continue.

謝謝，瑞克。我現在將介紹我們如何應對第四季度供應鏈中斷的影響，以及我們計劃如何在 2022 年通過這些影響進行管理。正如 Stuart 所指出的，我們必須應對相當一部分的中斷。與第三季度類似，這些中斷正在影響不同時間和不同地區的不同交易。它們是間歇性的，並且會繼續。

It continues to be a game of whack-a-mole that creates stress and uncertainty for an already strained labor base as materials often do not show up when expected. In the fourth quarter, the supply categories that were most impacted on a national basis or garage doors, windows, paint, HVAC condensers and flex duct and cabinets.

它仍然是一場打地鼠遊戲，給已經緊張的勞動力基礎帶來壓力和不確定性，因為材料通常不會按預期出現。在第四季度，在全國范圍內受影響最大的供應類別是車庫門、窗戶、油漆、HVAC 冷凝器以及柔性管道和機櫃。

Regionally, there were a variety of disruptions in the delivery of materials and/or the availability of labor. On average, this increased our fourth quarter cycle time by an additional 2 weeks from the third quarter, bringing the year-over-year increase to a range of 4 to 6 weeks.

從地區來看，材料交付和/或勞動力供應出現了各種中斷。平均而言，這使我們的第四季度週期時間比第三季度增加了 2 週，使同比增長達到 4 到 6 週的範圍。

Despite these disruptions and the associated increase in cycle time, the team at Lennar still managed to deliver approximately 18,000 homes in the quarter as expected. This was in large part due to a record number of starts in our second quarter of 19,500 homes to ensure we had enough inventory to meet our delivery goals.

儘管存在這些中斷以及相關的周期時間增加，Lennar 的團隊仍按預期在本季度交付了大約 18,000 套房屋。這在很大程度上是由於我們第二季度的 19,500 套房屋的開工數量創歷史新高，以確保我們有足夠的庫存來滿足我們的交付目標。

Additionally, the extraordinary supply chain, purchasing and construction teams at Lennar have never been better coordinated and are managing their scheduling on a day-by-day basis in partnership with each of our trade partners.

此外，Lennar 卓越的供應鏈、採購和施工團隊從未如此協調，並與我們的每個貿易夥伴合作，每天管理他們的日程安排。

We continue to work with our partners to solve issues in real time as well as planning ahead for our future demand needs. Examples of the strength of our strategic trade partnerships is when we had to take business away from our primary garage door manufacturer. They constructively work with us to move the business over to another vendor.

我們將繼續與我們的合作夥伴合作，實時解決問題，並提前規劃我們未來的需求需求。我們戰略貿易夥伴關係的優勢的例子是我們不得不從我們的主要車庫門製造商手中奪走業務。他們與我們建設性地合作，將業務轉移到另一家供應商。

When our major cabinet manufacturer fell behind due to labor and material shortages, they opened their factory for us on a weekend to manufacture 350 homes worth of cabinets in order to catch up. These are just 2 out of many examples where we and our valued trade partners found solutions to the challenges of the current environment.

當我們主要的櫥櫃製造商由於勞動力和材料短缺而落後時，他們在一個週末為我們開設了工廠，製造了價值 350 家的櫥櫃以迎頭趕上。這些只是我們和我們重要的貿易夥伴找到應對當前環境挑戰的解決方案的眾多例子中的兩個。

Our decade-long platform, Everything's Included, continues to be a strategic advantage in lessening the impact of the supply chain shortages. It's a simple program with fewer SKUs to manage, allowing us to plan ahead and order our material needs far in advance.

我們長達十年的平台，Everything's Included，繼續成為減輕供應鏈短缺影響的戰略優勢。這是一個簡單的程序，需要管理的 SKU 更少，使我們能夠提前計劃並提前訂購我們的材料需求。

As discussed in prior quarters, we are in our sixth year of focusing on being the Builder of Choice for our trade partners. This program has successfully created close-knit relationships with our strategic building partners, allowing both parties to be nimble in adjusting to these disruptions.

正如前幾個季度所討論的，我們已經進入第六個年頭，專注於成為我們貿易夥伴的首選建設者。該計劃成功地與我們的戰略建築合作夥伴建立了緊密的關係，使雙方能夠靈活地適應這些中斷。

We believe our strategic relationships have allowed us, together with our partners, to learn lessons from 2021 so we can be better prepared for 2022. We have been meeting with our key partners, along with additional new partners to allocate projected 2022 volume as opposed to just prioritizing available volume.

我們相信，我們的戰略關係使我們能夠與我們的合作夥伴一起從 2021 年吸取教訓，以便我們能夠為 2022 年做好更好的準備。我們一直在與我們的主要合作夥伴以及其他新合作夥伴會面，以分配預計的 2022 年產量，而不是只是優先考慮可用量。

This way, we identified potential gaps in availability upfront, allowing for proactive versus reactive solutions. We have completed about half the categories will complete the remaining ones in the next few weeks.

通過這種方式，我們預先確定了可用性方面的潛在差距，從而允許主動與被動解決方案。我們已經完成了大約一半的類別將在接下來的幾週內完成剩餘的類別。

We have added manufacturing and trade partners in key categories to ensure availability along with a continuous process of simplification to ongoing SKU reductions. Lastly, we have secured alternative distribution solutions to provide safety stock of certain commodities and short supply materials. We believe the combination of all these efforts will allow for the stabilization of the supply chain for Lennar in the back half of this year.

我們在關鍵類別中增加了製造和貿易合作夥伴，以確保可用性以及持續簡化 SKU 的持續過程。最後，我們已經獲得了替代分銷解決方案，以提供某些商品和短缺材料的安全庫存。我們相信，所有這些努力的結合將使 Lennar 在今年下半年穩定供應鏈。

Turning to the construction cost impacts on our fourth quarter closings were primarily from the lumber increases taken earlier in the year that are now impact cost as homes close.

轉向建築成本對我們第四季度關閉的影響主要來自今年早些時候的木材增加，現在隨著房屋關閉而影響成本。

In the fourth quarter, costs were up $6.78 per square foot over the third quarter and lumber accounted for $4.18 of that increase. We will still see increased costs from lumber in our first quarter deliveries. But starting in Q2 and through Q3, we will benefit from lumber cost reductions.

在第四季度，成本比第三季度每平方英尺增加了 6.78 美元，其中木材佔了 4.18 美元。我們仍然會看到第一季度交付的木材成本增加。但從第二季度到第三季度，我們將受益於木材成本的降低。

We experienced cost pressures in Q4 in other material categories and on labor that will start to flow through closings in the second half of 2022. On a final note, as Stuart mentioned, Rick and I recently spent 6 weeks on the road, visiting communities and construction sites in each and every one of our markets.

我們在第四季度在其他材料類別和勞動力方面經歷了成本壓力，這些壓力將在 2022 年下半年開始通過關閉流動。最後一點，正如 Stuart 提到的，我和 Rick 最近花了 6 週的時間在路上，訪問社區和我們每個市場的建築工地。

While we knew what to expect in terms of the supply disruptions and labor shortages that we would see, it was important for us to experience this firsthand, so we can most effectively manage through this environment. Importantly, this gave us the opportunity to meet with our teams and trade partners in the field, listen to their ideas, and shake their hands to thank them for their incredible dedication and effort they give in delivering quality homes to our customers.

雖然我們知道在供應中斷和勞動力短缺方面會發生什麼，但親身體驗這一點對我們來說很重要，這樣我們才能最有效地應對這種環境。重要的是，這讓我們有機會與我們的團隊和該領域的貿易夥伴會面，傾聽他們的想法，並與他們握手感謝他們在為我們的客戶提供優質住宅方面所付出的令人難以置信的奉獻和努力。

We can assure you that Lennar culture is alive and well and as strong as ever. We'd like to take this opportunity to again thank all of our Lennar associates and trade partners for the incredible quarter that they delivered.

我們可以向您保證，Lennar 文化一如既往地生機勃勃，而且一如既往地強大。我們想藉此機會再次感謝我們所有的 Lennar 員工和貿易合作夥伴，感謝他們交付了令人難以置信的季度。

Thank you, and I'll now turn it over to Diane.

謝謝你，我現在把它交給黛安。

Thank you, Jon, and good morning, everyone. Stuart, Rick and Jon has provided a great deal of color regarding our homebuilding performance. So therefore, I'm going to spend a few minutes on the results of our other business segments and our balance sheet, and then provide detailed guidance for Q1 2022 and high-level guidance for fiscal year 2022.

謝謝你，喬恩，大家早上好。 Stuart、Rick 和 Jon 為我們的住宅建設表現提供了很多幫助。因此，我將花幾分鐘時間了解我們其他業務部門和資產負債表的結果，然後提供 2022 年第一季度的詳細指導和 2022 財年的高級指導。

So starting with Financial Services. In the fourth quarter, our Financial Services team produced $111 million of operating earnings. Mortgage operating earnings decreased to $77 million compared to $125 million in the prior year.

所以從金融服務開始。在第四季度，我們的金融服務團隊創造了 1.11 億美元的營業收入。抵押貸款營業收入從去年的 1.25 億美元降至 7700 萬美元。

As we've indicated for several quarters, the mortgage market has become more competitive with purchase business as refinance volumes have declined. As a result, secondary margins have been decreasing.

正如我們幾個季度以來所指出的那樣，隨著再融資量的下降，抵押貸款市場與購買業務的競爭變得更加激烈。因此，次要利潤一直在下降。

This was the primary driver for our fourth quarter, lower secondary margins as compared to the prior year. Title operating earnings were $30 million compared to $28 million in the prior year. Title earnings increased due to growth in profit per transaction, partially offset by a decrease in volume driven by a reduction in refinance orders.

這是我們第四季度的主要驅動因素，與去年相比，次要利潤率較低。產權營業收入為 3000 萬美元，而去年為 2800 萬美元。由於每筆交易的利潤增長，產權收入增加，但部分被再融資訂單減少導致的交易量減少所抵消。

Quarter after quarter, our Title team has been focused on automation and efficiencies with the goal of driving higher productivity. And then turning to Lennar Other. For the fourth quarter, our Lennar Other segment had an operating loss of $176 million. This loss was primarily the result of noncash mark-to-market losses on our strategic technology investments which totaled $180 million.

一個季度又一個季度，我們的 Title 團隊一直專注於自動化和效率，目標是提高生產力。然後轉向 Lennar Other。第四季度，我們的 Lennar 其他部門的經營虧損為 1.76 億美元。這一損失主要是由於我們的戰略技術投資的非現金按市值計價損失總計 1.8 億美元。

As we have mentioned before, we are required to mark to market many of our technology investments that are publicly traded, and that valuation will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. While the technology investments had downside with losses for this quarter, overall for the fiscal year, our investments provided approximately $500 million of unrealized gains.

正如我們之前提到的，我們需要將我們的許多公開交易的技術投資標記為市場，並且該估值將隨季度波動。雖然技術投資在本季度出現虧損，但總體而言，在本財年，我們的投資提供了大約 5 億美元的未實現收益。

In addition, and most important, our investments continue to add value to our core homebuilding operations. And then turning to our balance sheet. For the quarter and the year, focused on becoming land lighter. As a result, at quarter end, we owned 182,000 homesites and controlled 257,000 homesites for a total of 439,000 home sites.

此外，最重要的是，我們的投資繼續為我們的核心住宅建設業務增加價值。然後轉向我們的資產負債表。對於本季度和年度，重點是減輕土地重量。因此，在季度末，我們擁有 182,000 個宅基地並控制了 257,000 個宅基地，總計 439,000 個宅基地。

Our year supply owned decreased to 3 years from 3.5 years in the prior year, and our homesites controlled increased to 59% from 39% in the prior year. We were also laser-focused on generating cash flow, reducing debt and increasing returns, as you've heard. Therefore, we ended the quarter with $2.7 billion of cash and no borrowings on our $2.5 billion revolving credit facility.

我們擁有的年供應量從上一年的 3.5 年減少到 3 年，我們控制的宅基地從上一年的 39% 增加到 59%。正如您所聽說的，我們還專注於產生現金流、減少債務和增加回報。因此，我們在本季度結束時有 27 億美元的現金，我們 25 億美元的循環信貸額度沒有借款。

We also retired $850 million of senior notes that were due in 2022. Together with $300 million of senior notes paid in the third quarter, we retired a total of $1.15 billion of senior notes in 2021. Our next senior note maturity is $575 million, which is due in November 2022, and we have no maturities due in fiscal '23.

我們還退還了 2022 年到期的 8.5 億美元優先票據。加上第三季度支付的 3 億美元優先票據，我們在 2021 年退還了總計 11.5 億美元的優先票據。我們的下一個優先票據到期日為 5.75 億美元，即將於 2022 年 11 月到期，我們在 23 財年沒有到期。

Also during the quarter, we repurchased 10 million shares totaling $977 million, bringing the total repurchase for the full year to 14 million shares, totaling almost $1.4 billion or 4.5% of our outstanding shares at the beginning of the year. Additionally, we paid dividends totaling $76 million which brings total cash return to shareholders for dividends for the year to $310 million.

同樣在本季度，我們回購了 1000 萬股，總計 9.77 億美元，使全年回購總額達到 1400 萬股，總計近 14 億美元，佔年初流通股的 4.5%。此外，我們支付了總計 7,600 萬美元的股息，使股東的年度股息現金回報總額達到 3.1 億美元。

The result of all these transactions was a homebuilding debt to total capital of 18.3%, which was down from 24.9% in the prior year. As you can see, our primary focus was cash generation and capital allocation during 2021, but it's the continuation of our multiyear strategy.

所有這些交易的結果是房屋建設債務佔總資本的 18.3%，低於去年的 24.9%。如您所見，我們的主要關注點是 2021 年的現金產生和資本配置，但這是我們多年戰略的延續。

During fiscal 2021, we generated almost $3 billion of homebuilding cash flow. However, over the past 3 years, 2019 through 2021, we generated about $8 billion of homebuilding cash flow and allocated approximately $5 billion of debt reduction as our first priority, approximately $2 billion to share buybacks and approximately $600 million was returned to shareholders through dividend payments.

在 2021 財年，我們產生了近 30 億美元的房屋建設現金流。然而，在過去的 3 年中，從 2019 年到 2021 年，我們產生了約 80 億美元的房屋建設現金流，並將約 50 億美元的債務減免作為我們的首要任務，約 20 億美元用於股票回購，約 6 億美元通過股息返還給股東付款。

And this focus will, of course, continue in 2022. And just a final few points on our balance sheet. Our stockholders' equity increased to approximately $21 billion. Our book value per share increased to [$69.52]. Our return on inventory was 27%, excluding consolidated inventory not owned. And our return on equity was 22.6%.

當然，這一重點將在 2022 年繼續。而且只是我們資產負債表上的最後幾點。我們的股東權益增加到大約 210 億美元。我們的每股賬面價值增至 [$69.52]。我們的庫存回報率為 27%，不包括未擁有的合併庫存。我們的股本回報率為 22.6%。

So with that brief overview, I'd like to provide some detailed guidance for the first quarter and then high-level guidance for fiscal 2022, starting with the first quarter.

因此，通過簡要概述，我想為第一季度提供一些詳細的指導，然後從第一季度開始為 2022 財年提供高級指導。

We expect our Q1 new orders to be in the range of 14,800 to 15,100 homes. As you heard us say, as we continue to moderate sales pace to match production cycle changes. This is consistent with the approach we have taken for quite a while.

我們預計第一季度的新訂單將在 14,800 至 15,100 套房屋之間。正如您聽到我們所說，隨著我們繼續放慢銷售步伐以匹配生產週期的變化。這與我們長期以來採取的方法是一致的。

We expect our Q1 inventory -- I'm sorry, our Q1 ending community count to be about 5% lower than the end of year 2021. However, community count will then increase in the second quarter, and we should end 2022 with low double-digit year-over-year growth.

我們預計我們的第一季度庫存——對不起，我們第一季度結束的社區數量將比 2021 年底低 5%。但是，社區數量將在第二季度增加，我們應該在 2022 年結束時以低雙- 數字同比增長。

We believe our Q1 deliveries will be around 12,500. But similar to last quarter, the assessment has some plus or minus to it because the supply chain challenges continue to bring a great deal of uncertainty.

我們相信我們第一季度的交付量將在 12,500 輛左右。但與上一季度類似，由於供應鏈挑戰繼續帶來很大的不確定性，該評估有一些正面或負面的影響。

So the final number of homes delivered will be dependent on outcomes to the supply chain challenges which, of course, we are navigating each and every day. Our Q1 average sales price should be about $460,000, and we expect our gross margin to be around 26.75% which reflects the impact of peak lumber prices from last year and less field expense leverage.

因此，最終交付的房屋數量將取決於供應鏈挑戰的結果，當然，我們每天都在應對這些挑戰。我們第一季度的平均銷售價格應該在 460,000 美元左右，我們預計我們的毛利率在 26.75% 左右，這反映了去年木材價格高峰和現場費用槓桿減少的影響。

We expect our SG&A to be between 7.8% and 7.9% as we continue to continue to focus on simplification and efficiencies. Now I will note again that gross margin and SG&A estimates will move up or down a bit depending on the number of homes delivered. And for the combined category of homebuilding joint ventures, land sales and other categories, we expect a loss of approximately $5 million.

我們預計我們的 SG&A 將在 7.8% 至 7.9% 之間，因為我們將繼續專注於簡化和效率。現在我要再次指出，毛利率和 SG&A 估計值會根據交付房屋的數量上下浮動。對於房屋建築合資企業、土地銷售和其他類別的合併類別，我們預計損失約為 500 萬美元。

Looking at our other business segments and other additional items. We believe our Financial Services earnings for Q1 will be in the range of $85 million to $90 million as market competition for purchased business continues. We expect a loss of about $10 million for our multifamily business. And for the Lennar Other category, we expect to be about breakeven.

查看我們的其他業務部門和其他附加項目。我們相信，隨著收購業務的市場競爭持續，我們第一季度的金融服務收益將在 8500 萬美元至 9000 萬美元之間。我們預計我們的多戶家庭業務將損失約 1000 萬美元。對於 Lennar 其他類別，我們預計將達到收支平衡。

But remember, this guidance does not include any potential mark-to-market adjustments to our technology investments, this will be determined by their stock prices at the end of our quarter. We expect our Q1 corporate G&A to be about 2% of total revenue.

但請記住，該指導不包括對我們的技術投資進行任何潛在的按市值調整，這將取決於他們在我們季度末的股價。我們預計我們的第一季度公司 G&A 將佔總收入的 2% 左右。

Our charitable foundation will be based on $1,000 per home, and we expect our tax rate to be approximately 25%. And the weighted average share count for the quarter should be approximately 297 million shares.

我們的慈善基金會將以每戶 1,000 美元為基礎，我們預計我們的稅率約為 25%。本季度的加權平均股數應約為 2.97 億股。

And so when you pull all this together, this guidance should produce an EPS range of $2.54 to $2.57 per share for the first quarter. And then turning to the full year 2022. We expect to deliver approximately 67,000 homes with an average sales price of about $460,000.

所以當你把所有這些放在一起時，這個指導應該會產生第一季度每股 2.54 美元到 2.57 美元的每股收益範圍。然後轉向 2022 年全年。我們預計將交付大約 67,000 套房屋，平均售價約為 460,000 美元。

This would result in about $31 billion of homebuilding revenue, which should be an increase of approximately 20% from fiscal 2021. We expect our full year gross margin to be in the range of 27% to 27.5%. And with our continued focus on technology and efficiencies, we expect our fiscal year SG&A to decrease to the range of 6.8% to 6.9%.

這將帶來約 310 億美元的住宅建設收入，比 2021 財年增長約 20%。我們預計全年毛利率將在 27% 至 27.5% 之間。隨著我們對技術和效率的持續關注，我們預計我們的財年 SG&A 將降至 6.8% 至 6.9% 的範圍。

We believe our financial services earnings will be in the range of $440 million to $450 million as market competition continues. And finally, our tax rate should be approximately 25%. And so as we continue to execute on our core operating strategies, maintain a strong balance sheet and remain focused on cash flow generation and returns, we are well positioned to have a strong fiscal year 2022.

我們相信，隨著市場競爭的繼續，我們的金融服務收入將在 4.4 億美元至 4.5 億美元之間。最後，我們的稅率應該是 25% 左右。因此，隨著我們繼續執行我們的核心運營戰略，保持強勁的資產負債表並繼續專注於現金流的產生和回報，我們將在 2022 財年實現強勁的發展。

Before I turn it over to the operator, let me take a moment to thank our finance teams, accounting, planning and all others involved. Our earnings release went out yesterday, 15 days after year-end, and we are hosting our earnings call today, 16 days after year-end.

在我把它交給運營商之前，讓我花點時間感謝我們的財務團隊、會計、計劃和所有其他相關人員。我們的財報發佈於昨天，即年底後 15 天，今天我們將在年底後 16 天召開財報電話會議。

We've been holding our quarterly calls within this general time frame for over a year. Although the time frames have been consistent, make no mistake, the work is continued. Our goal is to not be satisfied with what has been accomplished, but rather to make incremental progress through automation and efficiencies each and every quarter while we compile and report our actual or forecasted results.

一年多來，我們一直在這個一般時間範圍內舉行季度電話會議。儘管時間框架是一致的，但不要誤會，工作仍在繼續。我們的目標不是滿足於已經取得的成就，而是在我們編制和報告我們的實際或預測結果的同時，通過自動化和效率每個季度取得增量進展。

The incremental progress is the result of a lot of hard work. So congratulations teams and a sincere thank you for what you've accomplished this year. And with that, let me turn it over to the operator.

漸進式的進步是大量努力的結果。因此，祝賀團隊並真誠地感謝你們今年所取得的成就。有了這個，讓我把它交給操作員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

Congrats on a great quarter. My first question is really thinking about the positive setup that you described, Stuart, against supply relative to demand. And that against the guide that you've given us for 2022. Can you kind of walk us through a bit and maybe talk through where you see the potential for upside and downside within that? And especially maybe as we think about the upcoming selling season and how you're thinking about some of those pieces coming together?

祝賀一個偉大的季度。我的第一個問題是真正考慮你描述的積極設置，斯圖爾特，相對於需求的供應。這與您為我們提供的 2022 年指南背道而馳。您能否帶我們了解一下，也許可以談談您認為其中的上行和下行潛力的地方？尤其是當我們考慮即將到來的銷售季節以及您如何考慮其中一些組合在一起時？

Sure. Let me -- before answering the question, I just want to second Diane's congratulations to the finance team with David Collins sitting here. A lot of hard work goes into getting the year and quarter close, and they're doing a great job.

當然。讓我——在回答這個問題之前，我只想再次祝賀戴安對財務團隊的祝賀，大衛柯林斯坐在這裡。為了使年度和季度接近尾聲，他們付出了很多努力，而且他們做得很好。

But let me answer that, Susan. The reality that we're seeing in the field, as we have come to our year-end and even as we go into December is the market remains strong traditional seasonality is coming back, but still relative to that seasonality, we're seeing basic strength in the marketplace.

但讓我回答這個問題，蘇珊。我們在該領域看到的現實是，隨著我們進入年底，甚至進入 12 月，市場仍然強勁，傳統的季節性正在回歸，但相對於這種季節性，我們看到基本市場上的實力。

The constraining factor right now is the production cycle. And we have been decidedly focused on matching our sales pace with that production cycle, recognizing that we're going to maximize execution in bottom line by keeping those 2 pieces in parity. So as we think about the upcoming selling season, it is feeling to us -- as we look at the market, as we look at week-by-week sales, traffic, demand, it is feeling to us that this is going to be a very, very strong selling season.

現在的製約因素是生產週期。我們一直專注於使我們的銷售速度與生產週期相匹配，認識到我們將通過保持這兩個部分保持同等水平來最大限度地提高執行力。因此，當我們考慮即將到來的銷售季節時，我們會感覺到——當我們觀察市場時，當我們觀察每週的銷售、流量、需求時，我們會感覺到這將是一個非常非常強勁的銷售季節。

It is going to be more of a traditional selling season in that -- as we get to the end of February, March, we expect to see even more of a pickup. But make no mistake, it's strong out there right now. With that said, the production cycle, as I've noted, the cycle times have been extending through the quarters. We're cognizant of that.

這將更像是一個傳統的銷售季節——隨著我們到 2 月底、3 月，我們預計會看到更多的回升。但請不要誤會，它現在很強大。話雖如此，生產週期，正如我所指出的，週期時間一直延伸到季度。我們深知這一點。

We recognize that it's a bit of, as Jon said, whack-a-mole out there. One day, it's garage doors, another day, it's windows or paint. And that kind of configuration is at least in our world, starting to feel like we're stabilizing it. I noted our purchasing team and the work that they have done around our Builder of Choice programs or Everything's Included programs, working to really stabilize that purchasing side and logistics side of our business.

正如喬恩所說，我們認識到這有點像打地鼠。一天是車庫門，另一天是窗戶或油漆。這種配置至少存在於我們的世界中，開始感覺我們正在穩定它。我注意到我們的採購團隊以及他們圍繞我們的 Builder of Choice 計劃或 Everything's Included 計劃所做的工作，努力真正穩定我們業務的採購方面和物流方面。

And as we go forward, I think you're going to see that parity, that pairing of production cycles stabilizing and high demand in the marketplace start to move things towards what I think is going to be more of an upside in 2022. And we'll just have to wait and see if it plays out that way.

隨著我們向前發展，我認為你會看到這種平衡，生產週期的穩定配對和市場的高需求開始推動事情朝著我認為在 2022 年將更加有利的方向發展。我們'將只需要等待，看看它是否會以這種方式發揮作用。

We've clearly conservatized some of our numbers to recognize the landscape that exists today, and we'll see how the market plays out as we go forward.

我們已經清楚地保存了我們的一些數據以識別當今存在的格局，我們將在我們前進的過程中看到市場的表現。

Okay. That's very helpful color. And my follow-up is, shifting to capital allocation and appreciating all the detail that Diane gave in her commentary around that. As we sort of look out and we think about the community count growth and obviously, the overall growth that you're sort of building and ramping the business too, can you talk about how you think about also balancing that with the shareholder returns and improving the overall return profile of the business even as you kind of aim for a faster growth pace?

好的。這是非常有用的顏色。我的後續行動是，轉向資本配置，並欣賞黛安在她的評論中給出的所有細節。當我們注意並考慮社區數量的增長時，很明顯，您正在建立和擴大業務的整體增長，您能否談談您如何考慮如何平衡股東回報和改善即使您的目標是更快的增長速度，業務的整體回報情況如何？

What is it that you wanted me to compare it to? I missed that part. The first one.

你要我拿什麼來比較？我錯過了那部分。第一個。

Just sort of thinking about as you are obviously investing for growth going forward, right? But at the same time, you're -- it seems like you're a lot more focused on shareholder returns as well. And thinking about the considerable buyback you did this quarter, how should we think about that going forward and your continued diligence and dedication to the shareholder return piece?

只是想一想，因為您顯然是在為未來的增長進行投資，對嗎？但與此同時，您似乎也更關注股東回報。考慮到您本季度進行的大量回購，我們應該如何看待未來以及您對股東回報的持續努力和奉獻？

Okay. So look, it's -- I think we've made it clear in the past and we're -- I think our fourth quarter performance relative to share buyback, made it even more clear. We're in a cash generation mode. We are clearly generating a lot of excess cash, and we're much shy about opportunistically jumping into the market and making strategic purchases. I think that you can expect that to continue as we go forward. We're laser focused on returns.

好的。所以看，這是 - 我認為我們過去已經說清楚了，我們 - 我認為我們第四季度相對於股票回購的表現更加清楚。我們處於現金生成模式。我們顯然正在產生大量多餘的現金，而且我們對機會主義地進入市場並進行戰略性採購感到非常害羞。我認為隨著我們的前進，你可以期待這種情況繼續下去。我們專注於回報。

We're very focused on bringing our asset base down as we ramp up our bottom line returns. And I think that you've heard that as a strategic message. You're going to see it over and over again in execution. And I think that there's a balance. We're going to pay down debt. We're going to limber up the balance sheet. You can expect that we're going to pay down the debt that's coming due over the summer. What is it? $575 million?

隨著我們提高底線回報，我們非常專注於降低我們的資產基礎。我認為您已經將其視為戰略信息。你會在執行過程中一遍又一遍地看到它。我認為這是一個平衡。我們要償還債務。我們將調整資產負債表。你可以期待我們將償還夏季到期的債務。它是什麼？ 5.75億美元？

$575 million. Yes.

5.75億美元。是的。

$575 million. We're going to pay that out of cash flow, but we're going to continue a stock buyback program as we focus on those bottom line returns.

5.75億美元。我們將從現金流中支付這筆費用，但我們將繼續執行股票回購計劃，因為我們專注於這些底線回報。

Our next question comes from Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson。

Stuart, in your prepared remarks, I believe you were talking about the SpinCo being somewhat asset-light. And I think you even mentioned potentially liquidating a portion of it. Is the asset spin still going to be about $5 billion to $6 billion. And then in tandem with that, you're targeting 65% option land by the end of this year. Where do you think this could go after the spin, 80% plus? And with that, I'm kind of thinking just longer term over the next 2, 3 years, I mean, is there any possibility maybe you're getting maybe 80%, 90% option land?

斯圖爾特，在你準備好的評論中，我相信你是在談論剝離公司有點輕資產。而且我認為您甚至提到了可能清算其中的一部分。資產旋轉是否仍將達到約 50 億至 60 億美元。然後與此同步，您的目標是到今年年底獲得 65% 的期權土地。你認為這在旋轉後會去哪裡，超過 80%？有了這個，我有點想在接下來的 2、3 年更長遠，我的意思是，你有沒有可能獲得 80%、90% 的選擇權土地？

So we're going to take that in stride, and let the -- let's play that out over time. I don't want to get out over my skis. Your first question relative to the SpinCo, we have been -- look, you have to -- as we configured SpinCo, we've gone back and forth on an asset-heavier, asset-lighter approach.

所以我們要從容應對，讓我們隨著時間的推移發揮作用。我不想離開我的滑雪板。關於 SpinCo，您的第一個問題是——看，你必須——當我們配置 SpinCo 時，我們在資產更重、資產更輕的方法上來回走動。

We think that in terms of defining the company going forward, our best program going forward is an asset-light approach to SpinCo. That means that many of the assets that we targeted at the outset will end up either an AUM or we will liquidate an orderly course on the Lennar book.

我們認為，就未來公司的定義而言，我們最好的未來計劃是對 SpinCo 採取輕資產方式。這意味著我們一開始就瞄準的許多資產最終將成為 AUM，或者我們將清算 Lennar 賬簿上的有序課程。

It's still the same basic configuration of asset base. We've just been -- it's all been about turning assets into cash and deploying the cash or deploying the assets so that we lighten up our inventory and we end up with a spun ancillary business program that enables that pure-play focus on homebuilding and financial services.

它仍然是資產庫的基本配置。我們剛剛 - 這一切都是關於將資產轉化為現金並部署現金或部署資產，以便我們減輕庫存，我們最終獲得了一個旋轉的輔助業務計劃，使純粹專注於住宅建設和金融服務。

So it's kind of a zero-sum game. The asset base is still the same. It's just where the asset is going to fall. It's going to fall balance sheet, AUM or liquidation and all of it's going to basically solve to the same equation.

所以這是一種零和遊戲。資產基礎還是一樣的。這正是資產將要下跌的地方。它將下降資產負債表、資產管理規模或清算，所有這些都將基本上解決相同的方程式。

Okay. Okay. And for my follow-up question, you all, I believe, are guiding to low double-digit community count growth in '22. Over the past 4 quarters, you've been starting about 4.5 to 5 homes per community per month. Are you pretty comfortable with this range going forward as you open more communities just given all the constraints in the market?

好的。好的。對於我的後續問題，我相信你們所有人都在指導 22 年的低兩位數社區數量增長。在過去的 4 個季度中，您每個社區每月開始建造大約 4.5 到 5 套房屋。鑑於市場上的所有限制，隨著您開放更多社區，您是否對這個範圍很滿意？

And hypothetical, internally, do you have the active land and labor available to possibly move above that range if the material supply chain begins improving throughout 2022?

假設在內部，如果材料供應鏈在 2022 年開始改善，您是否有可用的土地和勞動力超過該範圍？

Let me invite Rick and then Jon to weigh in on this.

讓我邀請 Rick 和 Jon 來權衡一下。

Yes. So on the community count, I think as I said in my remarks, we're really well positioned right now. While we'll dip a little bit in Q1, that's really just a timing issue. It's tough to map some of these things out over a 12- or 24-month timeframe. But we will see solid growth in the back half year starting in Q2.

是的。因此，就社區人數而言，我認為正如我在講話中所說，我們現在處於非常有利的位置。雖然我們會在第一季度有所下降，但這實際上只是一個時間問題。很難在 12 或 24 個月的時間範圍內繪製出其中的一些內容。但從第二季度開始，我們將看到後半年的穩健增長。

And based on our land pipeline, we're pretty comfortable that we'll see continued growth in '23. As I said, we increased our overall owned and controlled pipeline, land position by 44% year-over-year.

根據我們的陸上管道，我們很高興看到 23 年的持續增長。正如我所說，我們的總體擁有和控制的管道、土地位置同比增加了 44%。

That's a lot of work from our teams. And all of that came from -- all of that real increase came from option contracts. So it's a remarkable repositioning and change in direction of the ship all during a time period where we're really driving growth.

這是我們團隊的大量工作。所有這些都來自——所有真正的增長都來自期權合約。因此，在我們真正推動增長的時期，這是一次了不起的重新定位和方向的改變。

I'll let Jon talk about the start space because I think we're pretty comfortable.

我會讓喬恩談談起始空間，因為我認為我們很舒服。

Yes, we're very comfortable that we'll be able to look at '22 as an increase in starts over '21. So some of that typical seasonality with Q2 being our strongest start quarter. But I think as we look across our platform, we are well positioned with our relationship with our trade partners to be able to manage a very healthy start pace.

是的，我們很高興我們能夠將 22 年視為比 21 年開始的增加。因此，第二季度的一些典型季節性是我們最強勁的開始季度。但我認為，當我們縱觀我們的平台時，我們與貿易夥伴的關係處於有利地位，能夠管理一個非常健康的起步步伐。

And to the extent that we do see more stabilization relative to the supply chain. I think what you'll see is a tightening of the cycle time more than an increase in start pace. I mean, we're already planning on maintaining a very disciplined approach to our start pace what we'll pull in is the cycle time from the extended periods that we're seeing now.

在某種程度上，我們確實看到相對於供應鏈更加穩定。我認為您將看到的是周期時間的收緊，而不是啟動速度的增加。我的意思是，我們已經計劃對我們的起步速度保持一種非常有紀律的方法，我們將引入的是我們現在看到的延長周期的周期時間。

Our next question comes from Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

First, just on the gross margins, I think the guidance initially last night, maybe earlier this morning caught a little people off -- some people off guard with the first quarter down sequentially. Certainly, it is consistent, though, with your -- before '21, you had a consistent sequential decline.

首先，就毛利率而言，我認為昨晚最初的指導，也許今天早上早些時候讓一些人措手不及——一些人措手不及，第一季度連續下降。當然，這與你的 - 在 21 年之前，你的連續下降是一致的。

But I was hoping to delve into, number one, if you could kind of break out perhaps what was the incremental negative headwind in terms of lumber? I believe you mentioned that you expect peak lumber costs in the first quarter versus just the reduced overhead leverage.

但我希望深入研究，第一，如果你能打破也許在木材方面增加的負面逆風是什麼？我相信您提到您預計第一季度的木材成本將達到峰值，而只是間接費用槓桿率的降低。

And as you think about the full year guidance, I think, more importantly even, what are some of the drivers there in terms of upside or downside and the lumber cost assumption for the back half of the year?

當您考慮全年指導時，我認為，甚至更重要的是，在上行或下行方面以及下半年的木材成本假設方面有哪些驅動因素？

So let me start by saying that our margins are very strong. When you look at the first quarter, you're basically looking at peak lumber and you're getting to the edge of peak lumber as we fall into the second quarter where it really starts to moderate. And number two, you're really looking at leverage relative to field expenses.

因此，讓我首先說我們的利潤率非常高。當您查看第一季度時，您基本上看到的是峰值木材，當我們進入第二季度時，您正在接近峰值木材的邊緣，它真正開始放緩。第二，你真的在考慮相對於現場費用的槓桿作用。

So you see a little bit of a minor down in the first quarter, but our margins are still coming in at a very strong level, and you see that in our look forward to 2022. And I'd just say that, Mike, relative to looking ahead, it's always difficult to look out numerous quarters, particularly in the market where labor and materials and logistics are moving around, I think that we feel pretty optimistic about our margins as we go forward. And I think you see the beginnings of that reflected in our year-end -- or our total year 2022 projections or forecast.

所以你看到第一季度略有下降，但我們的利潤率仍然處於非常強勁的水平，你會在我們對 2022 年的展望中看到這一點。我只想說，邁克，相對展望未來，總是很難看到許多季度，特別是在勞動力、材料和物流不斷變化的市場中，我認為隨著我們的發展，我們對我們的利潤率感到非常樂觀。而且我認為您會在我們的年底或我們對 2022 年的總體預測或預測中看到這一點的開始。

Jon, do you want to weigh in?

喬恩，你想稱重嗎？

I think you pretty much covered it. It's the peak pricing of lumber will hit us in Q1, and then we'll start benefiting from significantly lower prices. And if you follow the topic of lumber now, we'll probably see some uptick as we look at lumber purchases in the first second and second quarters that will impact some of the back half of the year. But likely offset by what we spoke about in terms of a very strong spring selling season, which should increase our ASP to offset that.

我認為你幾乎涵蓋了它。木材的最高價格將在第一季度打擊我們，然後我們將開始從大幅降低的價格中受益。如果你現在關注木材的話題，我們可能會看到第一季度和第二季度的木材採購量有所上升，這將影響到今年下半年的一些時間。但可能會被我們所說的春季銷售旺季所抵消，這應該會增加我們的 ASP 以抵消這一點。

Right. Okay. No, that's helpful. Secondly, if I could, just a couple of clarifications on earlier questions. Number one, around the share repurchase, it seems like you have a lot less wood to chop in terms of debt pay down this upcoming year. At the same time, presumingly, you'd have a higher amount equal to a higher amount of cash flow everything else equal, that would point to potentially a greater amount of share repurchase in '22. I just want to make sure I'm thinking about that right. And just lastly on the spin, that it did sound like an answer to Truman's question, you're kind of still expecting to offload about $5 billion to $6 billion of assets one way or another, if I heard you right.

對。好的。不，這很有幫助。其次，如果可以的話，請對先前的問題進行一些澄清。第一，圍繞股票回購，在即將到來的一年償還債務方面，您似乎要砍伐的木頭要少得多。同時，假設在其他條件相同的情況下，您將擁有更高的金額等於更高的現金流量，這將表明 22 年可能會有更多的股票回購。我只是想確保我在考慮這個問題。最後，聽起來確實像是對杜魯門問題的回答，如果我沒聽錯的話，你仍然希望以某種方式出售約 50 億至 60 億美元的資產。

Okay. So the answer to question one is, as I noted, we will continue to buy back stock on an opportunistic basis. I don't think there's any flaw in your thinking as to order of magnitude of cash flow and how we're situated to be able to do that. I don't want to speak specifically about stock buybacks. I don't want to kind of lay out a road map, but we're going to do that opportunistically, and we have significant cash flow as we look forward.

好的。因此，正如我所指出的，問題一的答案是，我們將繼續在機會主義的基礎上回購股票。我認為您對現金流量的數量級以及我們如何能夠做到這一點的想法沒有任何缺陷。我不想專門談論股票回購。我不想制定路線圖，但我們會機會主義地這樣做，而且我們有大量的現金流，因為我們期待著。

As it relates to number two, the answer is yes. That's the answer that we gave. I basically laid out 3 buckets. It's either going to be balance sheet for SpinCo, AUM within SpinCo or liquidation with cash flow enabling greater stock buyback, and that's how we're focusing on it.

因為它涉及到第二個，答案是肯定的。這就是我們給出的答案。我基本上佈置了3個桶。它要么是 SpinCo 的資產負債表、SpinCo 內部的 AUM，要么是通過現金流進行清算以實現更大的股票回購，這就是我們關注的方式。

Our next question comes from Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Lots of good info here. I wanted to start by talking about the supply chain and your cycle times. So if we just did this ratio, we compared your fiscal '22 closings guide, full year closings guide, to what you actually did in this past fourth quarter, and we looked at that through time. And what we see is that your guide is assuming a ratio or a multiple of 4Q '21 closing.

這裡有很多很好的信息。我想先談談供應鍊和您的周期時間。因此，如果我們只是按照這個比例計算，我們會將您的 22 財年結算指南、全年結算指南與您在過去第四季度的實際情況進行比較，並且我們會通過時間來研究這一點。我們看到的是，您的指南假設 21 年第 4 季度收盤的比率或倍數。

So that's pretty consistent with previous years. But given how unusual and crazy the supply chain was in 4Q and your earlier comments that you think that it's going to start to get better, I'm kind of curious why you're not expecting that you could close more homes relative to what you just did in the 4Q than in prior years. And then at a higher level, once your cycle times do stabilize or even contract, I'm curious how you're going to balance orders relative to your production. Like, should we expect to see order growth reaccelerate while your backlog turnover stays kind of low? Or should we expect to see your turnover rates increase and your order growth continue to remain constrained for a while?

所以這與前幾年非常一致。但考慮到第四季度供應鏈的異常和瘋狂，以及你之前的評論，你認為它會開始好轉，我有點好奇為什麼你不期望你可以關閉更多的房屋。只是在第四季度比往年。然後在更高的層次上，一旦你的周期時間穩定甚至收縮，我很好奇你將如何平衡相對於你的生產的訂單。比如，我們是否應該期望看到訂單增長重新加速，而您的積壓營業額保持在低水平？或者我們是否應該期望看到您的周轉率增加並且您的訂單增長在一段時間內繼續受到限制？

Jon, Rick?

喬恩，瑞克？

So I think, Steve, we've just taken a straight shot look at what we know today about our cycle times and projected production. As I said in my response to the prior question, if we do see the stabilization, I think what you'll see is a reduction in our cycle time versus a material pickup in our start pace. And if that does happen, we should lead to a pickup in closings.

所以我認為，史蒂夫，我們剛剛直接了解了我們今天所知道的關於我們的周期時間和預計產量的信息。正如我在回答上一個問題時所說，如果我們確實看到了穩定，我認為你會看到我們的周期時間減少，而不是我們開始速度的材料回升。如果確實發生這種情況，我們應該會導致成交量回升。

Relative to sales, as Stuart has commented, as Rick commented, we see a very strong sales environment. So to the extent that we change our start pace, not our closing pace for our start pace, we would adjust our sales pace to match that. But as I said, I don't see a lot of upside in terms of increasing start pace. So I would think our sales would remain pretty consistent with the way that we planned them.

相對於銷售，正如 Stuart 所說，正如 Rick 所說，我們看到了非常強勁的銷售環境。因此，如果我們改變我們的開始速度，而不是我們開始速度的收盤速度，我們將調整我們的銷售速度以匹配它。但正如我所說，就提高起步速度而言，我沒有看到太多好處。所以我認為我們的銷售將與我們計劃的方式保持一致。

And then price will just be the thing that sort of equalizes it. Kind of like what happened last year?

然後價格將成為一種平衡它的東西。有點像去年發生的事情？

And -- just don't see any reason to sell ahead of how we're starting homes.

而且 - 只是在我們如何開始房屋之前看不到任何出售的理由。

Yes. We could sell another 1,000 homes in the quarter if we wanted to without too much effort. It just doesn't make sense to do that. Jon and Stuart are exactly right. It doesn't make sense to get over our skis that we're good skiers. The market starts to improve a little bit and the supply chain normalizes itself out, we'll close more homes. That's just the reality of the situation.

是的。如果我們想不費力氣的話，我們可以在本季度再出售 1,000 套房屋。這樣做是沒有意義的。喬恩和斯圖爾特完全正確。克服我們的滑雪板認為我們是優秀的滑雪者是沒有意義的。市場開始有所改善，供應鏈正常化，我們將關閉更多房屋。這就是實際情況。

So Steve, let me just Let me just add to this and say, at the end of the day, the math would indicate -- just simple math would indicate that you're right. We've pushed some closings from 2021 to '22. We've increased starts through the year, and there should be higher closings and opportunity to sell kind of as we go forward. The choppiness of the supply chain really tells us to stay on the conservative side until we see what the market actually does and how things actually play out.

所以史蒂夫，讓我補充一下，說到底，數學會表明——簡單的數學會表明你是對的。我們已將一些關閉時間從 2021 年推遲到 22 年。我們全年增加了開工率，隨著我們的前進，應該會有更高的收盤價和出售機會。供應鏈的波動確實告訴我們要保持保守，直到我們看到市場的實際情況以及事情的實際進展。

So if you just sit down and look at the math, I understand your question in an excellent question. But if you look at the way the market is playing out and how cycle times are moving and the whack-a-mole kind of environment that we're in, we're just going to let it play out and not get over our skis as Rick says.

因此，如果您只是坐下來看看數學，我就可以很好地理解您的問題。但是，如果你看看市場的發展方式、週期時間的變化以及我們所處的那種打地鼠的環境，我們只會讓它發揮作用，而不是克服我們的滑雪板正如里克所說。

Yes, makes perfect sense. And I believe you actually used a derivative of conservatism in your opening remarks. I think you said you conservatized some assumptions in your guidance. And so I wanted to pull on that thread a little bit, that conservatism thread. Last year, your gross margin ultimately exceeded your initial guide by about 300 basis points.

是的，完全有道理。我相信你實際上在開場白中使用了保守主義的衍生詞。我想你說你在指導中保守了一些假設。所以我想稍微拉一下那個線程，那個保守主義線程。去年，你的毛利率最終超過了最初的指導值約 300 個基點。

And despite the fact that there was this massive unforeseen spike in lumber costs and scrambling costs from the supply chain and all that. And so you've addressed the lumber a little bit in the fact that the first quarter is going to have a little bit of a headwind. I assume you meant by that, that the $4.18 increase is going to be bigger -- bigger than in the first quarter. I just want to confirm that. Maybe Diane, you can confirm that?

儘管事實上木材成本和供應鏈的爭奪成本出現了不可預見的巨大飆升等等。因此，您在第一季度將遇到一點逆風這一事實中已經解決了一些問題。我假設你的意思是，4.18 美元的漲幅將會更大——比第一季度更大。我只是想確認一下。也許黛安，你能證實嗎？

But then the other big part of it is home price, right? So nationally, home prices look like they're still rising at about 1% a month. You just mentioned that you think a strong selling season is going to drive your ASP higher. But your ASP guide for the full year 2022 is actually below the order price that you booked this quarter.

但是另一個很大的部分是房價，對吧？因此，在全國范圍內，房價看起來仍在以每月約 1% 的速度上漲。您剛剛提到您認為強勁的銷售旺季將推高您的平均售價。但您 2022 年全年的 ASP 指南實際上低於您本季度預訂的訂單價格。

And I'm wondering if there's anything specific that is driving that, or again, if it's just conservatism incorporated in your outlook?

我想知道是否有什麼具體的驅動因素，或者再次，如果它只是保守主義納入你的觀點？

Let me just say -- and I'm sorry, Rick, for stepping on you, but let me just say that we are a little bit shy about projecting too much ASP growth. And I think that it's going to be interesting also to see what happens with interest rates, which I don't know how to factor in either right now. I kind of like what we're looking at and what we're projecting, I feel pretty good about our ability to accomplish and maybe exceed some of those metrics. Rick, I stepped on you. I apologize.

讓我說——我很抱歉，里克，踩到你了，但我只想說，我們對預測過多的 ASP 增長有點害羞。而且我認為看看利率會發生什麼也會很有趣，我現在不知道如何考慮。我有點喜歡我們正在研究和計劃的內容，我對我們完成並可能超過其中一些指標的能力感到非常滿意。瑞克，我踩到你了。我道歉。

Yes. And I agree with exactly what Stuart said there's a good feel in the market as I walk through the markets, there's market strength in all product categories. We're seeing strength. It's all about getting the homes built and reducing that cycle time. Sales price, we have good room in sales prices. Some of the ASP is a higher percentage of deliveries in the Texas markets, which are a little bit lower priced markets. but we'll see how the year progresses.

是的。我完全同意 Stuart 所說的，當我瀏覽市場時，市場感覺良好，所有產品類別都有市場實力。我們看到了力量。這一切都是為了建造房屋並減少週期時間。銷售價格，我們有很好的銷售價格空間。一些平均售價在德州市場的交付中所佔的比例較高，而德州市場的價格略低一些。但我們會看到這一年的進展情況。

Well, Steve, the answer to the first part of your question is, yes, Q1 should be the peak lumber prices and by the end of the quarter, we'll start to see them fall. But overall, for the quarter, it will be up from the fourth quarter.

好吧，史蒂夫，你問題第一部分的答案是，是的，第一季度應該是木材價格的峰值，到本季度末，我們將開始看到它們下跌。但總體而言，就本季度而言，它將比第四季度有所上升。

Our next question comes from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

First, I'd love to expand a little bit on that pricing conversation you just had with Steve. I totally understand the conservatism there, not wanting to get too bullish, especially with the uncertainty in the rate environment. But if I look at your '21 pricing, while you guys obviously prices at a very nice rate, and certainly, based on your margin, it looks like you took advantage of the strong pricing environment, the growth was a little bit less than some of the other builders.

首先，我想稍微擴展一下您剛剛與史蒂夫進行的定價對話。我完全理解那裡的保守主義，不想過於樂觀，尤其是在利率環境不確定的情況下。但是，如果我看看你們 21 年的定價，雖然你們的定價顯然非常好，而且當然，根據你們的利潤率，看起來你們利用了強勁的定價環境，增長略低於一些的其他建設者。

And I'm curious if there's any -- when you look at your business on the pricing side, are there any actions you guys are taking, recognizing affordability constraints where you're trying to offset maybe apples-to-apples price gains with either building a smaller square footage product, maybe moving out into some more affordable submarkets as a way to keep your product more affordable? Or am I reading too much into that and you'll tell me now it's just a mix of deliveries from quarter-to-quarter?

而且我很好奇是否有任何-當您在定價方面查看您的業務時，你們是否正在採取任何行動，認識到負擔能力限制，您試圖通過任何一種來抵消蘋果對蘋果的價格上漲構建一個更小的平方英尺的產品，也許轉移到一些更實惠的子市場，作為讓你的產品更實惠的一種方式？還是我讀得太多了，你現在會告訴我這只是季度到季度交付的混合？

Rick?

瑞克？

Well, it's a combination of all those things. As we move out to some other markets that are a little bit further out, those are generally lower priced compared to sort of the more infill sales. We are adjusting and building a smaller footprint in many of our markets. And where Jon and I constantly balance with the team, pace and price. And you'll continue to see good ASP growth.

嗯，它是所有這些東西的結合。當我們搬到一些更遠的其他市場時，與更多的填充銷售相比，這些市場的價格通常較低。我們正在調整併在我們的許多市場中建立更小的足跡。喬恩和我不斷與團隊、速度和價格保持平衡。您將繼續看到良好的 ASP 增長。

I think also, as Rick mentioned earlier, I don't think it's a quarter-to-quarter mix. As much as Rick and I and the division has been very focused on driving down the price curve as you deal with affordability. So we are consciously trying to experience product that is smaller, more affordable as well as a significant focus on picking up our market share in Texas, which does drive that ASP.

我也認為，正如 Rick 之前提到的，我不認為這是一個季度到一個季度的混合。就像瑞克和我一樣，該部門一直非常專注於降低價格曲線，因為您要處理可負擔性問題。因此，我們有意識地嘗試體驗更小、更實惠的產品，並重點關注我們在德克薩斯州的市場份額，這確實推動了 ASP。

Perfect. Second question on the land strategy, the lot count. You guys highlighted the 40% plus growth in total lots controlled, and you're not necessarily unique in that standpoint, I think the public builders as a group are probably up 30%, 40% year-over-year.

完美的。關於土地策略的第二個問題，地段數。你們強調了 40% 以上的控制總地段增長，從這個角度來看，你不一定是獨一無二的，我認為公共建築商作為一個整體可能同比增長 30%、40%。

So clearly, there's been a huge push for tying up more land. And on one hand, it's all tied up through option contracts, which is great because it's obviously capital efficient. But on the other hand, it doesn't seem like the market is going to be capable of delivering that type of growth anytime soon.

很明顯，有一個巨大的推動力來佔用更多的土地。一方面，這一切都通過期權合約捆綁在一起，這很好，因為它顯然具有資本效率。但另一方面，市場似乎無法在短期內實現這種增長。

So effectively, the way I look at it, the tail of your land supply is effectively continuing to grow unless we could just see huge bottlenecks resolved here over the next year or 2. And while it's off balance sheet, you still do have $1 billion more of capital tied up in option deposits today than you had 5 or 6 quarters ago. So it's not completely asset-free or capital free. So I'm just curious, should we expect that growth to maybe start slowing here?

如此有效地，在我看來，你的土地供應的尾部實際上正在繼續增長，除非我們可以在未來一兩年內看到巨大的瓶頸在這裡得到解決。雖然它不在資產負債表外，但你仍然有 10 億美元與 5 或 6 個季度前相比，現在被期權存款所佔用的資本更多。所以它不是完全無資產或無資本的。所以我很好奇，我們是否應該預期增長可能會在這裡開始放緩？

Or are you comfortable effectively growing that tail because you want to have your kind of arms around all corners of the market for when the market does resolve itself from these constraints?

或者您是否願意有效地增長這條尾巴，因為您希望在市場確實從這些限制中自行解決時，讓您的手臂環繞市場的各個角落？

Look, I would say, Alan, that on an overall -- for all homebuilders basis, the math and your questions probably [hold water]. And the positive side of that is this market is not going to enable there to be a sizable overbuilding, which has been an overhang in past cycles.

聽著，我會說，艾倫，總體而言——對於所有房屋建築商來說，數學和你的問題可能[保持不變]。積極的一面是，這個市場不會導致大規模的過度建設，這在過去的周期中一直是懸而未決的。

On the other side, I think that if you look at our land strategy and programming, I think that the land market is definitely constrained, and -- But I think that given our position in our strategic markets, we're just going to be able to outperform. And I think that we're really positioned to be able to do that. Rick, do you want to weigh in on that?

另一方面，我認為如果你看看我們的土地戰略和規劃，我認為土地市場肯定受到限制，而且--但我認為鑑於我們在戰略市場中的地位，我們將成為能夠跑贏大盤。我認為我們真的有能力做到這一點。瑞克，你想權衡一下嗎？

I feel very comfortable with what we've done. So incredibly comfortable and pleased with the relationships that we've established across the U.S. with just some incredible land folks, regional developers. And that's what's really propelling this. It's given us an opportunity to get involved with some larger communities that are battleship communities that will have multiple price points and products going at various points in time that have the ability to feed on themselves. Just really couldn't be more pleased with where we are right now.

我對我們所做的感到非常滿意。對於我們在美國與一些令人難以置信的土地開發人員、區域開發商建立的關係，我們感到非常舒適和滿意。這就是真正推動這一點的原因。它讓我們有機會參與一些更大的社區，這些社區是戰艦社區，這些社區將有多個價格點和產品在不同的時間點運行，能夠自給自足。只是真的對我們現在所處的位置感到非常滿意。

And let's make the next one the last question, please.

請讓我們將下一個問題作為最後一個問題。

Absolutely. Our last question comes from Matthew Bouley from Barclays.

絕對地。我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊的 Matthew Bouley。

And congrats on the quarter. So just a clarification around what's assumed in the guide related to supply chain. And -- so you mentioned in the Q&A that you're embedding conservatism in the guide, but I think at the top, Stuart, you mentioned in the second half that you do expect some -- I think you said mitigation in the supply chain disruptions.

並祝賀本季度。因此，只需澄清指南中與供應鏈相關的假設。而且 - 所以你在問答中提到你在指南中嵌入了保守主義，但我認為在頂部，斯圖爾特，你在下半部分提到你確實期望一些 - 我認為你說過供應鏈中的緩解中斷。

I'm just curious, as you think about closings and community guide, kind of what degree of contingency is built into that guide? Or is there an assumption within the guide that, that supply chain does get better somewhat?

我只是好奇，當您考慮關閉和社區指南時，該指南中包含了何種程度的偶然性？或者指南中是否有一個假設，即供應鏈確實有所改善？

So you're right. I did daylight that the second half of the year, we expect to see some stabilization in the supply chain. And if you -- what we basically daylighted is that its self-imposed stabilization, meaning we've increased the number of starts in order to be able to accommodate the fact that the cycle time has expanded, deliveries are somewhat impaired.

所以你是對的。我確實認為今年下半年，我們預計供應鏈會出現一些穩定。而且，如果您-我們基本上指出的是它的自我穩定，這意味著我們增加了啟動次數，以便能夠適應週期時間延長的事實，交付會受到一定程度的損害。

I think the supply chain disruptions, I can't predict what's going to actually happen in the field. But what we've done, we've put buffers out there and increased starts. Our Builder of Choice program working with our subcontractor base, our building partner base, to activate kind of safeguards and programming to enable a better delivery system and logistics system.

我認為供應鏈中斷，我無法預測該領域實際會發生什麼。但是我們所做的，我們已經把緩衝區放在那裡並增加了開始。我們的 Builder of Choice 計劃與我們的分包商基地、我們的建築合作夥伴基地合作，以激活某種保障措施和編程，以實現更好的交付系統和物流系統。

And, additionally, our Everything's Included program, really reducing the number of SKUs in our product offering is working to our benefit and helps with our Builder of Choice program to really create embedded buffers that I think are going to really position us well in the second half of the year. So your question is what kind of conservatism have we injected I think that we're kind of expecting more of a steady state program through the year.

此外，我們的 Everything's Included 計劃確實減少了我們產品中的 SKU 數量，這對我們有利，並幫助我們的 Builder of Choice 計劃真正創建嵌入式緩衝區，我認為這將真正使我們在第二階段處於有利地位半年。所以你的問題是我們注入了什麼樣的保守主義，我認為我們預計全年會有更多的穩定狀態計劃。

We're certainly not getting over our skis and expecting that everything will stabilize and right level of perfection as we get to the second half, I can't give you a number in that regard. But conceptually, we've taken a conservative approach to looking to the remainder of the year. But we think that the market is going to stabilize at least on the supply chain side.

我們當然不會克服我們的滑雪板並期望隨著我們進入下半場一切都會穩定並達到正確的完美水平，在這方面我不能給你一個數字。但從概念上講，我們對今年剩餘時間採取了保守的態度。但我們認為，至少在供應鏈方面，市場將趨於穩定。

That's great color. And then last one on the gross margin guide, just to clarify the cadence you're assuming, obviously, the normal step down in Q1 with fixed field expenses. And simply looking at the math for getting to the full year guide, it's almost like assuming a normal levering of your fixed expenses as you go through the year without really much else that different, is simply doing the math. So I'm just curious between -- you mentioned clearly lumber tailwinds emerging as you get to Q2.

這顏色真好。然後是毛利率指南的最後一個，只是為了澄清你假設的節奏，顯然，第一季度的正常降級是固定現場費用。簡單地看一下獲得全年指南的數學，這幾乎就像假設你在一年中正常使用固定費用而沒有太多不同，只是在做數學。所以我只是好奇——你清楚地提到了第二季度出現的木材順風。

I'm wondering if there's any other pressures to the gross margin that we should be aware of. Rick, you just mentioned more mix to Texas, lower-priced homes, for example, or perhaps the mix of delivering option lots. Just what other headwinds might be part of that gross margin guide?

我想知道我們應該注意的毛利率是否還有其他壓力。里克，你剛剛提到德克薩斯州的更多組合，例如低價房屋，或者可能是交付選項地段的組合。毛利率指南中還有哪些其他不利因素？

Well, look, I think that you have a number of cross currents in just the cost side of the equation. Yes, lumber is moderating, and we're going to bypass the first quarter's peak. But at the same time, you have pressures from labor and materials in other areas that are clearly offsets to the benefit that we'll get from the lumber reduction.

好吧，看，我認為你在等式的成本方面有許多交叉電流。是的，木材正在放緩，我們將繞過第一季度的高峰。但與此同時，其他領域的勞動力和材料壓力明顯抵消了我們從木材減少中獲得的好處。

So the cost side of the equation is moving around. We'll still have to see where ASP goes and you're correct that when we start to normalize our field expense, and lumber starts coming down, there's somewhat of a gap in some of our numbers, but we're going to have to see how that gap is filled by the other traditional areas where costs are going up. Don't underestimate what's happening in labor In a constrained labor market, you got to pay more. And sometimes you get things done, you got to pay a lot more.

所以等式的成本方面正在移動。我們仍然需要看看 ASP 的去向，你是對的，當我們開始正常化我們的現場費用並且木材開始下降時，我們的一些數字存在一定的差距，但我們將不得不看看成本上漲的其他傳統領域如何填補這一空白。不要低估勞動力市場的變化 在勞動力市場受限的情況下，你必須付出更多。有時你把事情做好了，你必須付出更多。

Same thing on logistics. So that's what's happening in the field right now. You can't predict it. All we can do is lay out our expectations, and that's what we've done.

物流也是一樣。這就是該領域目前正在發生的事情。你無法預測。我們所能做的就是提出我們的期望，這就是我們所做的。

So let's leave it there. Thank you, everyone, for joining us. We look forward to reporting 2022 quarter-by-quarter, and we expect a very positive record-breaking year for 2022. Thank you.

所以讓我們把它留在那裡。謝謝大家加入我們。我們期待按季度報告 2022 年，我們預計 2022 年將是一個非常積極的破紀錄年份。謝謝。

Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect your lines, and enjoy the rest of your day.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。你可以斷開你的線路，享受你剩下的一天。