Lennar Corp (LEN) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to Lennar's second quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

    歡迎參加 Lennar 第二季度財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)今天的會議正在錄製中。如果您有任何異議,您可以在此時斷開連接。

  • I will now turn the call over to Alexandra Lumpkin for the reading of the forward-looking statement.

    我現在將把電話轉給 Alexandra Lumpkin 閱讀前瞻性聲明。

  • Alexandra Lumpkin - Associate General Counsel

    Alexandra Lumpkin - Associate General Counsel

  • Thank you, and good morning. Today's conference call may include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding Lennar's business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies and prospects. Forward-looking statements represent only Lennar's estimates on the date of this conference call and are not intended to give any assurance as to actual future results. As forward-looking statements relate to matters that have not yet occurred, these statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could affect future results and may cause Lennar's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements.

    謝謝你,早上好。今天的電話會議可能包括前瞻性陳述,包括有關 Lennar 的業務、財務狀況、運營結果、現金流、戰略和前景的陳述。前瞻性陳述僅代表 Lennar 在本次電話會議當日的估計,並不旨在對未來的實際結果作出任何保證。由於前瞻性陳述涉及尚未發生的事項,這些陳述本身就存在風險和不確定性。許多因素可能會影響未來的結果,並可能導致 Lennar 的實際活動或結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的活動和結果存在重大差異。

  • These factors include those described in this morning's press release and our SEC filings, including those under the caption Risk Factors contained in Lennar's annual report on Form 10-K most recently filed with the SEC. Please note that Lennar assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

    這些因素包括今天上午的新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的因素,包括 Lennar 最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-K 表格年度報告中的風險因素標題下的因素。請注意,Lennar 不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I would now like to introduce your host, Mr. Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman. Sir, you may begin.

    我現在想介紹一下主持人,執行主席斯圖爾特·米勒先生。先生,您可以開始了。

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • Very good. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. This morning, I'm here in Miami, and I'm joined by Jon Jaffe, our Co-CEO and President; Rick Beckwitt, our Co-CEO and President; Diane Bessette, our Chief Financial Officer; David Collins, our Controller and Vice President; and Bruce Gross, CEO of our Lennar Financial Services; and of course, Alex, who you just heard from.

    很好。大家早上好,感謝您加入我們。今天早上,我在邁阿密,我們的聯合首席執行官兼總裁喬恩·賈菲 (Jon Jaffe) 也加入了我的行列。 Rick Beckwitt,我們的聯合首席執行官兼總裁; Diane Bessette,我們的首席財務官;我們的財務總監兼副總裁 David Collins;我們的 Lennar Financial Services 首席執行官 Bruce Gross;當然還有 Alex,你剛剛聽到的消息。

  • As usual, I will give a macro and strategic overview. After my introductory remarks, Rick is going to talk about our markets around the country. Jon will update our land program, and supply chain and construction costs. And as usual, Diane will give a detailed financial highlight. And as noted in our press release, give some very limited boundaries to assist in go-forward thinking and modeling. And then, of course, we'll answer as many questions as we can. (Operator Instructions)

    像往常一樣,我將給出宏觀和戰略概述。在我的介紹性發言之後,Rick 將談論我們在全國的市場。 Jon 將更新我們的土地計劃、供應鍊和建設成本。和往常一樣,黛安將給出詳細的財務亮點。正如我們在新聞稿中所指出的,給出一些非常有限的界限來幫助進行前瞻性思考和建模。然後,當然,我們會盡可能多地回答問題。 (操作員說明)

  • So let me begin and start by saying that we're very pleased to announce another hard fought and well-executed quarterly performance by the associates of Lennar. Throughout our second quarter, we continue to sell homes and still offset higher land, labor and material costs. Our gross margin, as reported, was 29.5%, net margin was 23.4%. They continue to drive very strong cash flow and bottom line results as we continue to refine our business model for durability with a very efficient SG&A of 6.1%, which is a 150 basis point improvement over last year and a record for third quarter.

    因此,讓我首先說,我們非常高興地宣布 Lennar 的員工又一次艱苦奮鬥且執行良好的季度業績。在整個第二季度,我們繼續出售房屋,仍然抵消了更高的土地、勞動力和材料成本。據報導,我們的毛利率為 29.5%,淨利潤率為 23.4%。他們繼續推動非常強勁的現金流和底線業績,因為我們繼續改進我們的業務模式以提高耐用性,6.1% 的 SG&A 非常高效,比去年提高了 150 個基點,創下第三季度的紀錄。

  • With this strong performance and cash flow, we have continued to fortify our balance sheet with $1.3 billion of cash, nothing drawn on our revolver and a 17.7% debt to total cap rate ratio as compared to 23.1% last year. Accordingly, we're very well positioned to pay down another $575 million of debt later this year as it comes due and further strengthen our balance sheet.

    憑藉強勁的業績和現金流,我們繼續用 13 億美元的現金來鞏固我們的資產負債表,我們的左輪手槍沒有任何動用,債務與總資本化率的比率為 17.7%,而去年為 23.1%。因此,我們非常有能力在今年晚些時候償還另外 5.75 億美元的債務,並進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

  • We also managed our sales price and pace through the second quarter and increased new orders by 4% year-over-year, even though we began to see signs of weakening in the overall market. This weakening has continued into the third quarter. The housing market has cooled, as expected, in response to the Fed's aggressive and rapid reaction to inflation. The resulting very rapid, almost doubling of the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate in 6 months has had the desired effect of slowing price appreciation and moderating demand by increasing monthly payment costs and reducing affordability.

    我們還控制了整個第二季度的銷售價格和步伐,新訂單同比增長 4%,儘管我們開始看到整體市場走弱的跡象。這種疲軟一直持續到第三季度。正如預期的那樣,由於美聯儲對通脹的積極和快速反應,房地產市場已經降溫。由此產生的 30 年期固定利率抵押貸款利率在 6 個月內非常迅速地幾乎翻了一番,從而通過增加每月支付成本和降低負擔能力來減緩價格升值和緩和需求的預期效果。

  • While the market has cooled, it has clearly not stopped. Demand remains reasonably strong as buyers still have down payments and have attractive credit scores and can qualify. Household formation has continued to rise. And although we have adjusted some prices in many markets, those prices remain higher on a year-over-year basis. Buyers are seeking shelter from inflationary pressures as scarce rentals drive rents higher.

    雖然市場已經降溫,但它顯然沒有停止。需求仍然相當強勁,因為買家仍然有首付並具有有吸引力的信用評分並且有資格。家庭形成繼續增加。儘管我們已經調整了許多市場的一些價格,但這些價格仍然同比上漲。由於稀缺的租金推高租金,買家正在尋求躲避通脹壓力。

  • Supply remains limited across the country and the need for affordable workforce housing continues to be at crisis levels. Clearly, production must catch up to the growing household numbers as production of dwellings over the past decade has lagged prior decades by as many as 5 million homes. Nevertheless, the rapid increase in interest rates, together with price appreciation have created at least sticker shock and perhaps a more structural cooling of demand.

    全國各地的供應仍然有限,對負擔得起的勞動力住房的需求仍然處於危機水平。顯然,生產必須趕上不斷增長的家庭數量,因為過去十年的住宅生產已落後於前幾十年多達 500 萬戶家庭。儘管如此,利率的快速上升以及價格的升值至少造成了嚴重的衝擊,並且可能導致需求的結構性降溫。

  • In a few minutes, Rick is going to give a more detailed overview market-by-market review that will give a more comprehensive snapshot as to what we have seen to date. Although these preliminary reflections of market conditions are not as positive of the state of the market, indicators have been building since the Fed's tightening began. And given the Fed's expressed conviction to combat inflation by the definitive statements made recently, it seems that these trends will harden as the Fed continues to tighten until inflation subsides. While we can choose to fight against the trend, the reality is that the market has been changing, and we are getting ahead of it by making all necessary adjustments.

    幾分鐘後,Rick 將提供更詳細的逐個市場審查概述,這將為我們迄今為止所看到的提供更全面的快照。儘管這些對市場狀況的初步反映並不像市場狀況那樣積極,但自美聯儲開始收緊政策以來,指標一直在建立。鑑於美聯儲通過最近發表的明確聲明表達了對抗通脹的信念,隨著美聯儲繼續收緊直到通脹消退,這些趨勢似乎將變得更加嚴峻。雖然我們可以選擇逆勢而上,但現實是市場一直在變化,我們正在通過所有必要的調整來領先於它。

  • So what is the playbook going forward? We're going to keep it simple, and we're going to adhere to our core strategies. To begin, we are going to sell homes adjusting pricing to market conditions and maintaining reasonable volume. We have discussed over the past years that we have had a housing shortage across the country. We will continue to build as prices moderate and adjust in order to fill that shortfall and provide much-needed workforce housing across markets. As we have noted many times in the past, whether the market is improving or declining, we deploy our dynamic pricing model week by week to price products to current market conditions in order to maximize pricing and margin -- pricing and margin while we maintain a carefully limited inventory level. As the market moves, we will continue to be responsive.

    那麼未來的劇本是什麼?我們將保持簡單,我們將堅持我們的核心戰略。首先,我們將根據市場情況調整價格並保持合理的數量出售房屋。我們在過去幾年中討論過,我們在全國范圍內都存在住房短缺問題。隨著價格的緩和和調整,我們將繼續建設,以填補這一缺口並在各個市場提供急需的勞動力住房。正如我們過去多次指出的那樣,無論市場是好轉還是下滑,我們都會每週部署我們的動態定價模型,根據當前市場條件對產品進行定價,以最大限度地提高定價和利潤——定價和利潤,同時我們保持謹慎限制庫存水平。隨著市場的變化,我們將繼續做出響應。

  • In sync with selling homes, we will continue to leverage our extraordinary management team across the country and improve our cost of doing business. We have seen quarter-over-quarter improvements in our SG&A over the past years, and we expect to drive efficiencies through technology and process improvement to offset market adjustments wherever possible.

    在出售房屋的同時,我們將繼續利用我們在全國各地的卓越管理團隊並提高我們的經營成本。在過去幾年中,我們的 SG&A 實現了季度環比改善,我們希望通過技術和流程改進來提高效率,以盡可能抵消市場調整。

  • Next, we will continue to focus on cash flow and bottom line to protect and enhance our extraordinary balance sheet. Our great success over the past years to rise from the successes around careful land management and inventory controls, which have driven cash flows, enables us to reduce our debt, repurchase shares of stock, and drive shareholder returns. In the second quarter, we repurchased another 4.1 million shares of stock for approximately $320 million and drove our return on equity to 21.4%, a 260 basis point improvement over last year.

    接下來,我們將繼續關注現金流和底線,以保護和增強我們非凡的資產負債表。過去幾年,我們從謹慎的土地管理和庫存控制方面取得了巨大成功,這些成功推動了現金流,使我們能夠減少債務、回購股票並推動股東回報。第二季度,我們又以約 3.2 億美元的價格回購了 410 萬股股票,使我們的股本回報率達到 21.4%,比去年提高了 260 個基點。

  • Finally, we will conclude our long planned spin-off by year-end. As we have continued to refine the 3 verticals of our spin company, we will spin a mature asset management company into the public markets along with billions of dollars of assets under management that we previously held on Lennar's books.

    最後,我們將在年底前結束我們長期計劃的分拆。隨著我們繼續完善我們的旋轉公司的三個垂直領域,我們將把一家成熟的資產管理公司連同我們之前在 Lennar 賬面上持有的數十億美元的管理資產一起推向公開市場。

  • The final spin of our new company, which we will call Quarterra, will trade under the stock symbol Q. And as we have noted before, will be an asset-light asset management business that will have a limited balance sheet. By finalizing the spin, we will further reduce Lennar's asset base by another estimated $2.5 billion, which will drive higher returns on our assets and equity base and will not result in a material reduction of either our bottom line or our earnings per share. We're very excited about the future prospects for Quarterra as this will be the second spun company in our history, and we have great confidence in the prospects for its future.

    我們將稱為 Quarterra 的新公司的最後一次重組將以股票代碼 Q 進行交易。正如我們之前所指出的,這將是一家資產負債表有限的輕資產資產管理業務。通過完成分拆,我們將進一步減少 Lennar 的資產基礎,估計再減少 25 億美元,這將推動我們的資產和股權基礎的更高回報,並且不會導致我們的底線或每股收益出現實質性減少。我們對 Quarterra 的未來前景感到非常興奮,因為這將是我們歷史上第二家紡紗公司,我們對其未來前景充滿信心。

  • So let me conclude by saying that while the market might be shifting and adjusting to a new higher interest rate environment, we, at Lennar, are prepared. We are extremely well positioned financially, organizationally and technologically to thrive and to succeed in this evolving housing market. We recognize that interest rates are rising and inflation continues to be a legitimate threat. We know that the Fed is determined to curtail inflation, and this will take some time. but we also know that we can adjust as the market changes, and we will.

    因此,讓我最後說,雖然市場可能正在轉變並適應新的更高利率環境,但我們 Lennar 已經做好了準備。我們在財務、組織和技術上都處於非常有利的位置,可以在這個不斷發展的住房市場中茁壯成長並取得成功。我們認識到利率正在上升,通貨膨脹仍然是一個合理的威脅。我們知道美聯儲決心抑制通脹,這需要一些時間。但我們也知道,我們可以隨著市場的變化進行調整,我們會的。

  • We also know the difficulties in the supply chain continue to persist, and we know that land and labor remain in short supply. And we know that cash flow matters and that a strong balance sheet enables us to operate from a position of strength.

    我們也知道供應鏈的困難還在繼續,我們也知道土地和勞動力仍然供不應求。而且我們知道現金流很重要,而強大的資產負債表使我們能夠在實力雄厚的情況下運營。

  • As we look to the remainder of 2022, we recognize that there are challenges in the market that we must carefully regard, expect that we will meet the challenges and that we will continue to adjust to maximize opportunity and drive Lennar into an ever better future.

    展望 2022 年剩餘時間,我們認識到市場中存在我們必須仔細考慮的挑戰,期望我們能夠迎接挑戰,並且我們將繼續調整以最大限度地利用機會並推動 Lennar 走向更美好的未來。

  • With that, let me turn over to Rick.

    有了這個,讓我轉向里克。

  • Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • Thanks, Stuart. As you can tell from Stuart's opening comments, the housing market has been reacting to a significant increase in mortgage rates, increased sales prices, continued inflation and the impact of a declining stock market. These changes accelerated during the quarter with many marking the most pronounced impacts. With this in mind, I would like to focus my comments today on the monthly changes during our quarter, current sales environment in our markets and our strategic and operating focus as a company.

    謝謝,斯圖爾特。從 Stuart 的開場評論可以看出,房地產市場一直在對抵押貸款利率的大幅上升、銷售價格的上漲、持續的通貨膨脹以及股市下跌的影響做出反應。這些變化在本季度加速,其中許多變化最為顯著。考慮到這一點,我今天想將我的評論集中在我們本季度的每月變化、我們市場的當前銷售環境以及我們作為一家公司的戰略和運營重點。

  • During the second quarter, our new sales orders increased 4% from the prior year on flat year-over-year community count. Sales pace per community increased from 4.8 to 5 sales per month. We continue to sell our homes later in the construction cycle to maximize prices and offset potential cost increases.

    第二季度,由於社區數量同比持平,我們的新銷售訂單較上年同期增長 4%。每個社區的銷售速度從每月 4.8 次增加到 5 次。我們繼續在建設週期的後期出售我們的房屋,以最大限度地提高價格並抵消潛在的成本增加。

  • During the quarter, we saw year-over-year increases in new sales orders in each month of the quarter, with a variance of less than 125 sales orders between each monthly total. Our sales incentives on new orders during the second quarter were down 10 basis points year-over-year. However, the percentage did increase sequentially each month during the quarter, with many new sales order incentives totaling 1.6% of the gross sales price of the home.

    在本季度,我們看到本季度每個月的新銷售訂單同比增長,每個月的銷售訂單總數之間的差異不到 125 個。我們在第二季度對新訂單的銷售激勵同比下降了 10 個基點。然而,該百分比在本季度每個月都在逐月增加,許多新的銷售訂單激勵措施總計佔房屋總銷售價格的 1.6%。

  • While the sales percentage in May marked the high point during the quarter, it was still relatively low from a historical perspective. In fact, sales order incentives in May were slightly lower than the average new sales ordering incentive for the latest 12 months.

    雖然 5 月份的銷售百分比是該季度的高點,但從歷史角度來看,它仍然相對較低。事實上,5 月份的銷售訂單激勵略低於最近 12 個月的平均新銷售訂單激勵。

  • Our cancellation rate during the quarter totaled 11.8%, which increased sequentially during the quarter, but was significantly below our long-term historical average. We ended the quarter with only approximately 250 completed homes that were installed across our national footprint, putting us in a great position in a soft new sales environment. So far in June, new orders, traffic, sales incentives and cancellations have worsened in many of our markets due to a rapid spike in mortgage rates and headwinds from negative economic headlines. Many markets have also slowed as we've entered a seasonably slower part of the year.

    我們在本季度的取消率總計 11.8%,在本季度環比增長,但遠低於我們的長期歷史平均水平。我們在本季度末僅在全國范圍內安裝了大約 250 套已完工的房屋,這使我們在新的銷售環境中處於有利地位。 6 月到目前為止,由於抵押貸款利率迅速飆升和負面經濟新聞帶來的不利影響,我們許多市場的新訂單、客流量、銷售激勵措施和取消訂單情況都在惡化。隨著我們進入今年季節性放緩的部分,許多市場也放緩了。

  • I'd now like to give you some color on our markets across the country. They really fall into 3 categories: one, markets reflecting no and minimal impacts; two, markets reflecting modest impacts; and three, markets reflecting more significant impacts.

    我現在想給你一些關於我們全國市場的顏色。它們實際上分為 3 類:第一,市場沒有反映且影響最小;二,市場反映適度的影響;三是市場反映更顯著的影響。

  • During the second quarter and so far in June, we had 19 markets that continue to perform well. These include our 6 Florida markets, New Jersey, Maryland, Charlotte, Indianapolis, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Phoenix, San Diego, Orange County and the Inland Empire. All of these markets are benefiting from extremely low inventory, and many are benefiting from strong local economy, employment growth and in migration.

    在第二季度和 6 月到目前為止,我們有 19 個市場繼續表現良好。其中包括我們在佛羅里達州的 6 個市場,新澤西州、馬里蘭州、夏洛特、印第安納波利斯、芝加哥、達拉斯、休斯頓、聖安東尼奧、鳳凰城、聖地亞哥、奧蘭治縣和內陸帝國。所有這些市場都受益於極低的庫存,許多市場都受益於強勁的當地經濟、就業增長和移民。

  • While these markets have continued to be strong, our sales pace and pricing power has started to flatten or has flattened in each of these markets. To maintain sales momentum, we have offered mortgage buydown programs and normalized market incentives.

    雖然這些市場繼續保持強勁,但我們的銷售速度和定價能力在這些市場中的每一個都開始趨於平緩或趨於平緩。為了保持銷售勢頭,我們提供了抵押貸款購買計劃和規範的市場激勵措施。

  • Our Category 2 market, which reflects a modest softening in pricing and a slowdown in the markets includes 10 markets. These include Atlanta, Colorado, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Nashville, Philadelphia, Virginia, the Bay Area, Reno and Salt Lake City. In each of these markets, traffic has slowed, and we've seen an uptick in cancellation rates. While inventory is limited in each of these markets, we've had to offer more aggressive financing programs and targeted price reductions to reduce our sales base -- to keep our sales base in line with our production schedule.

    我們的第 2 類市場反映了價格溫和走軟和市場放緩,包括 10 個市場。其中包括亞特蘭大、科羅拉多、查爾斯頓、默特爾比奇、納什維爾、費城、弗吉尼亞、灣區、里諾和鹽湖城。在這些市場中的每一個,流量都在放緩,我們看到取消率有所上升。雖然每個市場的庫存都有限,但我們不得不提供更積極的融資計劃和有針對性的降價來減少我們的銷售基礎——以使我們的銷售基礎與我們的生產計劃保持一致。

  • Selectively reducing the sales price to solve for a mortgage payment that works for our buyers has worked well in these markets. Notwithstanding these price increases, net pricing remains higher than year ago periods.

    有選擇地降低銷售價格以解決對我們的買家有效的抵押貸款在這些市場上運作良好。儘管價格上漲,但淨價格仍高於去年同期。

  • Our Category 3 markets, which reflect the more significant market softening and correction includes 7 markets. These include Raleigh, Minnesota, Austin, Los Angeles, the Central Valley, Sacramento and Seattle. I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing these markets and what we're doing strategically from a sales point.

    我們的第 3 類市場反映了更顯著的市場疲軟和修正,包括 7 個市場。其中包括羅利、明尼蘇達州、奧斯汀、洛杉磯、中央山谷、薩克拉門托和西雅圖。我想花幾分鐘時間討論這些市場以及我們從銷售點戰略性地做些什麼。

  • Raleigh was an extremely strong market in the second quarter but softened significantly at the beginning of June. This stems from a combination of higher mortgage rates, steep price increases over the last 2 years, and some job concerns in the Texas. We believe pricing pressure will continue until the market resets and we've been reducing pricing and offering aggressive mortgage buydown program. Our pricing adjustments have started to take hold and sales activity has begun to stabilized. On a positive note, cancellation rates had not been a problem, inventory is limited and our net new order pricing is still up on a year-over-year basis. As a result, we have room for any needed future pricing adjustments.

    羅利在第二季度是一個非常強勁的市場,但在 6 月初顯著疲軟。這源於較高的抵押貸款利率、過去 2 年的價格急劇上漲以及德克薩斯州的一些就業問題。我們認為定價壓力將持續到市場重置,我們一直在降低定價並提供積極的抵押貸款購買計劃。我們的定價調整已開始生效,銷售活動已開始穩定。積極的一面是,取消率不是問題,庫存有限,我們的淨新訂單價格仍同比上漲。因此,我們有空間進行任何需要的未來定價調整。

  • The Minnesota market has been very challenging. Buyers have always been conservative in this market. And as rates have increased, there has been a strong push back against current pricing. There is very little in migration in Minnesota, which makes pricing much more challenging because we have a limited pool of only local buyers. We have reacted with strong price reductions, competitive mortgage programs and we're solving to a mortgage statement that works, which is starting to rebuild sales.

    明尼蘇達市場一直非常具有挑戰性。買家在這個市場上一直很保守。隨著利率的上漲,目前的定價受到了強烈的抵制。明尼蘇達州的移民很少,這使得定價更具挑戰性,因為我們只有有限的本地買家。我們的反應是大幅降價,有競爭力的抵押貸款計劃,我們正在解決一個有效的抵押貸款聲明,它開始重建銷售。

  • Austin has been the most impacted market in Texas, following back-to-back years of 40% plus appreciation and bidding wars on available inventory. Higher rates in June and headlines on stock market declines and the distressed national economy has sidelined many buyers who are waiting for a reset in home values.

    奧斯汀一直是得克薩斯州受影響最嚴重的市場,連續幾年對可用庫存進行了 40% 的升值和競標戰。 6 月利率上升、股市下跌和國民經濟低迷的頭條新聞使許多等待房屋價值重置的買家處於邊緣地位。

  • While inventory is limited, cancellation rates have increased and we've reduced prices in many communities on a home-by-home basis and have offered extremely competitive mortgage programs. These pricing adjustments are starting to generate increased sales activity. Fundamentally, Austin is positioned for long-term growth with low unemployment, higher [rent] occupancy, [low to mid] home inventory and strong projected job growth. Our communities in Los Angeles, Central Valley and Sacramento have experienced a significant slowdown with traffic dropping off considerably in late May and into June.

    雖然庫存有限,但取消率有所上升,我們在許多社區逐戶降低了價格,並提供了極具競爭力的抵押貸款計劃。這些定價調整開始產生更多的銷售活動。從根本上說,奧斯汀的長期增長是低失業率、較高的[租金]入住率、[中低]房屋庫存和強勁的預計就業增長。我們在洛杉磯、中央谷地和薩克拉門託的社區經歷了明顯的放緩,5 月下旬到 6 月交通量大幅下降。

  • With the spike in interest rates, buyers in these markets have been extremely credit challenged and cancellation rates have increased with adjusted prices are using financing incentives and in some cases, have included non-leased [solar] systems as part of our home package to rebuild sales. Net new order prices remained higher than the year ago period and completed inventory for the most part has not been a problem. The issue continues to be a reset in pricing to solve to a mortgage statement that works in these markets. This is consistent with what Stuart said in his opening remarks.

    隨著利率的飆升,這些市場的買家受到了極大的信貸挑戰,並且取消率隨著調整後的價格而增加,他們正在使用融資激勵措施,在某些情況下,將非租賃 [太陽能] 系統作為我們重建房屋計劃的一部分銷售量。淨新訂單價格仍高於去年同期,大部分已完成庫存沒有問題。問題仍然是重新定價以解決適用於這些市場的抵押貸款聲明。這與斯圖爾特在開場白中所說的一致。

  • Seattle was one of the strongest markets in the country over the last 2 years. The market saw strong integration, solid job growth and sales prices that grew approximately 20% annually in each of the last few years. While market fundamentals with limited land supply and low inventory remains extremely strong, buyers have pushed back for a reset in pricing. The higher priced and highly sought after locations around Seattle have seen a significant pullback in sales in May and early June. This pullback is a result of both continued price appreciation in the first quarter, causing concern over home values being overpriced and stock market corrections, which have had a direct impact on employee stock compensation plans.

    在過去的兩年裡,西雅圖是該國最強勁的市場之一。在過去的幾年裡,市場出現了強大的整合、穩定的就業增長和每年約 20% 的銷售價格增長。雖然土地供應有限和庫存低的市場基本面仍然非常強勁,但買家已經拒絕重新定價。西雅圖周邊價格較高且備受追捧的地點在 5 月和 6 月初的銷售額顯著回落。這種回調是第一季度價格持續上漲的結果,導致人們擔心房價被高估和股市調整,這對員工股票薪酬計劃產生了直接影響。

  • We've adjusted prices in some communities to Q4 pricing and has seen a sales uptick with this correction, which demonstrates the underlying strength of the market. Once again, in this market, we are at prices that are still significantly higher than the year ago period.

    我們已經將一些社區的價格調整為第四季度的定價,並且通過這種調整看到了銷售額的上升,這表明了市場的潛在實力。再一次,在這個市場上,我們的價格仍然明顯高於去年同期。

  • I hope this gives you a better picture of our markets across the country and what we're doing to keep sales activity going. The markets remain very fluid, and we are making strategic decisions and adjustments every day. As we've said in the past, we're going to keep our homebuilding machine going, maintain our start pace and price our homes to market.

    我希望這能讓您更好地了解我們在全國的市場以及我們為保持銷售活動所做的工作。市場仍然非常不穩定,我們每天都在做出戰略決策和調整。正如我們過去所說,我們將讓我們的房屋建築機器繼續運轉,保持我們的起步步伐,並將我們的房屋定價到市場。

  • I'd like to now turn it over to Jon.

    我現在想把它交給喬恩。

  • Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • Thanks, Rick. This morning, I'll discuss our land position and give an update on the status of the supply chain. I will be brief, as I know that sales and interest rates dominate the interest of our investors. We are pleased with the excellent progress we continue to make on our land-light strategy as evidenced by our controlled homesite percentage increasing to 62% at the end of the second quarter from 50% last year. We also continue to make progress by reducing the years of supply of owned homesites to 3.1 years at the end of the second quarter, down from 3.3 years last year.

    謝謝,瑞克。今天早上,我將討論我們的土地位置並提供有關供應鏈狀態的最新信息。我會簡短,因為我知道銷售和利率主導著我們投資者的興趣。我們對我們繼續在土地照明戰略方面取得的出色進展感到高興,我們的受控住宅百分比從去年的 50% 增加到第二季度末的 62%,證明了這一點。我們還繼續取得進展,將自有住宅的供應年限從去年的 3.3 年減少到第二季度末的 3.1 年。

  • To date, we have worked with our land strategies group, which will become a vertical of Quarterra to continue to reduce our years of land owned even lower. Using this strategy, we have cycled some $10 billion of land and land development from owned to controlled as we refine the supply of just-in-time homesites to our homebuilding machine.

    迄今為止,我們已經與我們的土地戰略小組合作,該小組將成為 Quarterra 的一個垂直部門,以繼續將我們擁有的土地年限減少到更低。使用這種策略,我們將大約 100 億美元的土地和土地開發從擁有到控制循環,因為我們改進了即時住宅場地的供應給我們的房屋建築機器。

  • Our extreme focus on the land-lighter model saved us a significant amount of cash spend on land acquisitions during the quarter. We ended the quarter as noted with $1.3 billion in cash, no borrowings on a $2.6 billion revolver and homebuilding debt to capital of 17.7%. As Stuart noted, we are very well positioned to manage through the changing interest rate environment with our excellent asset-light position and very strong balance sheet as the foundation for that position.

    我們對土地更輕模式的極度關注為我們在本季度節省了大量的土地收購現金支出。如前所述,我們在本季度結束時擁有 13 億美元的現金,26 億美元的左輪手槍沒有借款,房屋建設債務佔資本的比例為 17.7%。正如 Stuart 所指出的,我們以出色的輕資產頭寸和非常強大的資產負債表作為該頭寸的基礎,能夠很好地應對不斷變化的利率環境。

  • Turning to the supply chain and it's well-documented challenges for the industry. Our second quarter started presenting some favorable news. There were still intermittent disruptions and an increase in construction costs. But for the first time since the disruptions began, we saw a flattening in cycle time. Over the past 4 months, cycle time has expanded by only 5 days, which we believe signals a peak. Additionally, about 25% of our markets experienced cycle time reductions in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. There are still challenges that occur, but we are managing them effectively as evidenced not only by this flattening of cycle time, but also by being above the high end of our guidance for second quarter closings.

    轉向供應鏈,這是行業面臨的有據可查的挑戰。我們的第二季度開始呈現一些利好消息。仍然存在間歇性中斷和建築成本增加。但自中斷開始以來,我們第一次看到週期時間趨於平緩。在過去的 4 個月中,週期時間僅增加了 5 天,我們認為這標誌著一個高峰。此外,與第一季度相比,我們約有 25% 的市場在第二季度經歷了周期時間縮短。仍然存在挑戰,但我們正在有效地管理它們,這不僅體現在周期時間的扁平化,而且還體現在我們對第二季度結束時的指導的高端之上。

  • Our direct introduction costs in the second quarter were up 1.6% sequentially and 20% year-over-year, both lower than the comparable increases for the same period in the first quarter and fourth quarter of 2021. Rise in labor costs accounted for all of the increase in the second quarter. Material costs were lower due to the lower priced lumber from starts in the second half of last year. We expect costs will rise again in the back half of 2022, as increases in lumber that spiked in Q1 will flow through those closings.

    我們第二季度的直接引進成本環比增長 1.6%,同比增長 20%,均低於 2021 年第一季度和第四季度的同期增幅。勞動力成本上升佔所有第二季度的增長。由於去年下半年開工的木材價格較低,材料成本較低。我們預計成本將在 2022 年下半年再次上升,因為第一季度飆升的木材增長將流向這些關閉。

  • The current drop in lumber prices that we're experiencing, which started near the end of our second quarter will lower the cost of our starts in the second half of this year and related to deliveries in the first half of 2023.

    目前我們正在經歷的木材價格下跌,從我們第二季度末開始,將降低我們今年下半年的開工成本,這與 2023 年上半年的交付有關。

  • Thank you. And I'll now turn it over to Diane.

    謝謝你。我現在把它交給黛安。

  • Diane J. Bessette - VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Diane J. Bessette - VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Thank you, Jon, and good morning, everyone. So Stuart, Rick and Jon have provided a great deal of color regarding our homebuilding performance. So therefore, I'm going to spend a few minutes on the results of our other business segments and our balance sheet, and then review our thoughts for Q3.

    謝謝你,喬恩,大家早上好。因此,Stuart、Rick 和 Jon 為我們的住宅建設表現提供了很多色彩。因此,我將花幾分鐘時間了解我們其他業務部門和資產負債表的結果,然後回顧我們對第三季度的想法。

  • So starting with Financial Services. For the second quarter, our Financial Services team produced $104 million of operating earnings, slightly above the high end of our guidance. Then when you look at the details between mortgage and title, mortgage operating earnings were $74 million compared to $92 million in the prior year. As we've indicated for several quarters, and as has been greatly documented in the media, the mortgage market has become extraordinarily competitive for purchase business as refinance volumes have all but halted and resale inventories have declined. As a result, secondary margins have been decreasing. This was the primary driver for our lower second quarter earnings.

    所以從金融服務開始。第二季度,我們的金融服務團隊創造了 1.04 億美元的營業收入,略高於我們指引的高端。然後,當您查看抵押貸款和所有權之間的詳細信息時,抵押貸款營業收入為 7400 萬美元,而去年為 9200 萬美元。正如我們幾個季度以來所指出的那樣,並且正如媒體中大量記錄的那樣,抵押貸款市場對購買業務的競爭異常激烈,因為再融資量幾乎停止並且轉售庫存下降。因此,次要利潤一直在下降。這是我們第二季度收益下降的主要驅動力。

  • Title operating earnings were $30 million compared to $24 million in the prior year. Title earnings increased primarily as a result of higher premiums driven by an increase in average sales price per transaction. And then turning to our Lennar Other segment. For the second quarter, our Lennar Other segment had an operating loss of $108 million. The loss was primarily the result of noncash mark-to-market losses on our public company technology investments which totaled $78 million. The remaining loss was primarily related to other strategic investments in this segment.

    產權營業收入為 3000 萬美元,而去年為 2400 萬美元。產權收入增加主要是由於每筆交易的平均銷售價格上漲導致溢價增加。然後轉向我們的 Lennar 其他部分。第二季度,我們的 Lennar 其他部門的運營虧損為 1.08 億美元。損失主要是由於我們上市公司技術投資的非現金按市值計價損失總計 7800 萬美元。剩餘虧損主要與該分部的其他戰略投資有關。

  • As we have mentioned before, we are required to mark to market many of our technology investments that are publicly traded, and that valuation will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. However, we continue to believe that these technology partnerships provide significant operational efficiencies for both our homebuilding and Financial Services platform and greatly improve our homebuyers' experience.

    正如我們之前提到的,我們需要將我們的許多公開交易的技術投資標記為市場,並且該估值將隨季度波動。然而,我們仍然相信,這些技術合作夥伴關係為我們的住宅建設和金融服務平台提供了顯著的運營效率,並極大地改善了我們購房者的體驗。

  • And then turning to the balance sheet. As we've mentioned, we ended the quarter with $1.3 billion of cash and no borrowings on our revolving credit facility for a total of $3.9 billion of homebuilding liquidity.

    然後轉向資產負債表。正如我們所提到的,我們在本季度結束時擁有 13 億美元的現金,並且我們的循環信貸工具沒有借款,總計 39 億美元的房屋建設流動性。

  • And one note regarding our credit facility. Last month, we successfully amended and extended this facility. We now have almost $2.6 billion of commitment, $350 million matures in 2024 and $2.2 billion matures in 2027. We were pleased with the execution, which was greatly enhanced by our investment-grade rating.

    還有一張關於我們的信用額度的說明。上個月,我們成功地修改和擴展了這個設施。我們現在有近 26 億美元的承諾,3.5 億美元在 2024 年到期,22 億美元在 2027 年到期。我們對執行感到滿意,我們的投資級評級大大提高了這一點。

  • During the quarter, we -- as Jon mentioned, we continue to focus on becoming land lighter. As a result, at the end of the quarter, we owned 193,000 homesites and controlled 319,000 homesites for a total of 512,000 homesites. This portfolio of homesites provides us with a strong competitive position for continued market share expansion. Our homesites controlled increased to 62% from 50% in the prior year, and our years owned improved to 3.1 years from 3.3 years in the prior year.

    在本季度,我們 - 正如喬恩所說,我們繼續專注於減輕土地重量。結果,在本季度末,我們擁有 193,000 個宅基地,控制了 319,000 個宅基地,總計 512,000 個宅基地。這個住宅站點組合為我們持續擴大市場份額提供了強大的競爭地位。我們控制的宅基地從上一年的 50% 增加到 62%,我們擁有的年限從上一年的 3.3 年提高到 3.1 年。

  • Planned transactions may fluctuate quarter-to-quarter, but progress is made year-over-year. We are still on track to reach our goal of 2.75 years owned and 65% homesites controlled by year-end. And we remain committed to our focus on increasing shareholder returns. As we mentioned during the quarter, we repurchased 4.1 million shares totaling $321 million. Additionally, we paid dividends totaling $111 million during the quarter. Our next senior note maturity is $575 million, which is due in November of this year, and we have no debt maturities due in fiscal 2023.

    計劃中的交易可能會逐季波動,但會逐年取得進展。我們仍有望實現我們在年底前擁有 2.75 年和控制 65% 住宅的目標。我們仍然致力於增加股東回報。正如我們在本季度提到的,我們回購了 410 萬股股票,總額為 3.21 億美元。此外,我們在本季度支付了總計 1.11 億美元的股息。我們的下一個優先票據到期日為 5.75 億美元,將於今年 11 月到期,我們在 2023 財年沒有到期債務。

  • The result of all these transactions was the homebuilding debt to total capital of 17.7%, which improved from 23.1% in the prior year. And then just a few more points on our balance sheet in return, our stockholders' equity increased to $22 billion. Our book value per share increased to 74.12%. Our return on inventory was 30.5%, and our return on equity was 21.4%. In summary, our balance sheet is strong and positions us well for the future.

    所有這些交易的結果是房屋建設債務佔總資本的 17.7%,高於去年的 23.1%。然後在我們的資產負債表上再增加幾個點作為回報,我們的股東權益增加到 220 億美元。我們的每股賬面價值增至 74.12%。我們的庫存回報率為 30.5%,股本回報率為 21.4%。總之,我們的資產負債表很強勁,為我們的未來做好了準備。

  • And so with that brief overview, I'd like to turn to our thoughts for Q3. As we mentioned in our press release, it is difficult to provide the more targeted guidance that we typically offer given the uncertainty in market conditions. So alternatively, we thought it would be more appropriate to provide very broad ranges to give some boundaries to each of the components of our third quarter. So starting with new orders, we expect Q3 new orders to be in the range of 16,000 to 18,000 homes. We anticipate our Q3 deliveries to be in the range of 17,000 to 18,500. Our Q3 average sales price should be slightly higher than our Q2 average sales price, which as a reminder, was $483,000. We expect gross margins to be in the range of 28.5% to 29.5%. And we expect our SG&A to be between 6% and 6.5%.

    因此,通過簡要概述,我想談談我們對第三季度的想法。正如我們在新聞稿中提到的那樣,鑑於市場條件的不確定性,很難提供我們通常提供的更有針對性的指導。因此,或者,我們認為提供非常廣泛的範圍來為我們第三季度的每個組成部分提供一些界限會更合適。因此,從新訂單開始,我們預計第三季度的新訂單將在 16,000 至 18,000 套房屋之間。我們預計我們第三季度的交付量將在 17,000 到 18,500 之間。我們第三季度的平均銷售價格應該略高於我們的第二季度平均銷售價格,提醒一下,它是 483,000 美元。我們預計毛利率將在 28.5% 至 29.5% 之間。我們預計我們的 SG&A 將在 6% 到 6.5% 之間。

  • For the combined homebuilding, joint venture, land sale and other categories, we expect a loss of about $10 million. And then as we anticipate our Financial Services earnings for Q3 will be in the range of $70 million to $75 million as market competition for purchased business continues to increase. We expect earnings of about $20 million for our Multifamily business. And for the Lennar Other category, we expect a loss of about $20 million. This guidance does not include any potential mark-to-market adjustments to our technology investments since those adjustments will be determined by their stock prices at the end of our quarter. We expect our Q3 corporate G&A to be about 1.4% of total revenues. Our charitable foundation contribution will be based on $1,000 per home delivered. We expect our tax rate to be approximately 24%, and the weighted average share count for the quarter should be approximately 288 million shares. So when you pull all this together, this guidance should produce an EPS range of approximately $4.55 to $5.45 per share for the third quarter.

    對於房屋建築、合資企業、土地出售和其他類別的合併,我們預計虧損約 1000 萬美元。然後,正如我們預期的那樣,隨著購買業務的市場競爭不斷加劇,我們第三季度的金融服務收入將在 7000 萬美元至 7500 萬美元之間。我們預計多戶家庭業務的收益約為 2000 萬美元。對於 Lennar 其他類別,我們預計損失約為 2000 萬美元。本指南不包括對我們的技術投資進行任何潛在的按市值計價的調整,因為這些調整將由我們季度末的股價決定。我們預計我們的第三季度公司 G&A 將佔總收入的 1.4% 左右。我們的慈善基金會捐款將基於每家交付 1,000 美元。我們預計我們的稅率約為 24%,本季度的加權平均股數應約為 2.88 億股。因此,當您將所有這些放在一起時,該指導應該會產生第三季度每股約 4.55 美元至 5.45 美元的每股收益範圍。

  • And then turning to the full year. As we mentioned, we are maintaining our previous deliveries guidance of approximately 68,000 homes for the year. However, at this time, recognizing that market conditions are fluid, we will not be providing updated guidance for the other components of earnings. We do look forward to updating our thoughts for Q4 on our next earnings call.

    然後轉向全年。正如我們所提到的,我們維持之前的全年交付量約為 68,000 套房屋的指導。然而,目前,鑑於市場狀況不穩定,我們不會為其他收益組成部分提供最新指引。我們確實期待在下一次財報電話會議上更新我們對第四季度的想法。

  • With that, let me turn it back to the operator.

    有了這個,讓我把它轉回給操作員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Stephen Kim at Evercore ISI.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

  • Stephen Kim - Senior MD & Head of Housing Research Team

    Stephen Kim - Senior MD & Head of Housing Research Team

  • Yes. Exciting times. I appreciated all the color you gave on the call. There was a couple of comments you made about incentives and lumber, and you also gave a range of guess for 3Q gross margins. And so I was curious, it was a pretty strong 3Q gross margin number. And I was curious how much of the sequential increase in incentives is envisioned in that guidance. I think you said incentives were running at 1.6% in May, so I'm kind of cuing off of that.

    是的。激動人心的時刻。我很欣賞你在電話中給出的所有顏色。您對激勵措施和木材發表了一些評論,您還對第三季度的毛利率進行了一系列猜測。所以我很好奇,這是一個相當強勁的第三季度毛利率數字。我很好奇該指南中設想了多少激勵措施的連續增加。我想你說激勵措施在 5 月份以 1.6% 的速度運行,所以我對此有所暗示。

  • And then also, how much of a headwind from lumber because I think Jon mentioned that there was going to be some of that. So in both cases, I'm talking sequentially from what you experienced in 2Q.

    然後,還有多少來自木材的逆風,因為我認為喬恩提到會有一些這樣的。所以在這兩種情況下,我都是從你在第二季度的經歷開始的。

  • Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • Stephen, it's Jon. So relative to incentives, they're still relatively low. As Rick mentioned, we're calling about 1.6%. We're -- that's what we're seeing in today's market in some of those markets as they continue to adjust. It might get a little bit more. In lumber, what's flowing through our numbers and is already in our backlog, which gives us comfort of our guide on gross margins, is about a $6 a square foot increase from our start over in the year. So we have good visibility to exactly what that is.

    斯蒂芬,是喬恩。因此,相對於激勵措施,它們仍然相對較低。正如里克所說,我們打電話給大約 1.6%。我們 - 這就是我們在今天的市場中看到的一些市場,因為它們繼續調整。可能會多一點。在木材方面,我們的數字中流動的並且已經在我們的積壓中,這讓我們對我們的毛利率指南感到滿意,比我們今年開始時每平方英尺增加了大約 6 美元。所以我們可以很好地了解那是什麼。

  • Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • Yes. Let me just add to that, Steve. Most of what you're seeing flowing through our third quarter is already in backlog. So it's not just lumber that's in backlog, it's also many of the incentives. There will be some cancellations and some rotation through, and so we'll see some movement through the quarter. And as we noted, given the changing environment, it's going to be hard to say what actually the numbers are going to round out to be. There's going to be some averaging. But just remember that in the third quarter, we have a pretty good sense of visibility given the fact that a lot of our backlog is focused on the third quarter.

    是的。讓我補充一點,史蒂夫。您在我們第三季度看到的大部分內容已經積壓。因此,積壓的不僅僅是木材,還有許多激勵措施。將會有一些取消和一些輪換,因此我們將在本季度看到一些變化。正如我們所指出的,考慮到不斷變化的環境,很難說出實際的數字會是多少。會有一些平均。但請記住,在第三季度,鑑於我們的很多積壓工作都集中在第三季度,我們有很好的知名度。

  • Stephen Kim - Senior MD & Head of Housing Research Team

    Stephen Kim - Senior MD & Head of Housing Research Team

  • Yes. That's a fair point. And so, I guess, in regards to that, I was curious as to the exposure to cancellations, a lot of the builders -- well, all the builders really except you guys are sort of providing your documents, how much earnest money deposits they collect from their customers as a percentage? And we look at that as a percentage of the ASP, I was curious if you could talk about that.

    是的。這是一個公平的觀點。所以,我想,在這方面,我很好奇被取消的風險,很多建築商——嗯,除了你們之外,所有的建築商都在提供你的文件,他們存了多少定金從他們的客戶那裡收取百分比?我們將其視為 ASP 的百分比,我很好奇您是否可以談論它。

  • And the other part of my question relates to the single-family rental business because, Rick, when you were going through all your markets, it was interesting, you didn't really talk much about rents, but obviously, that's an important part of the equation. I know that the single-family rental appetite to acquire units has been really strong, but people are talking about whether that bid is going to disappear in the current environment.

    我的問題的另一部分與單戶租賃業務有關,因為里克,當您瀏覽所有市場時,這很有趣,您並沒有真正談論租金,但顯然,這是重要的一部分方程。我知道購買單位的單戶出租需求非常強烈,但人們正在談論這種出價是否會在當前環境下消失。

  • And so I was wondering if you could just sort of talk about the ability of your company to actually benefit unlike in cycles past from some of the rising rates pushing business into the rental arena.

    因此,我想知道您是否可以談論一下貴公司實際受益的能力,這與過去一些週期上漲的利率推動業務進入租賃領域不同。

  • Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • So first, let me address the question on backlog and deposits. One of the things that our mortgage company has done is it really attack and lock our Q3 and Q4 backlog. We've had a very concentrated effort to make sure that people have mortgages in place so that when closing comes up, they're good to go.

    首先,讓我談談積壓和存款的問題。我們的抵押貸款公司所做的其中一件事就是它真的攻擊並鎖定了我們的 Q3 和 Q4 積壓。我們已經非常集中地努力確保人們有抵押貸款,以便在關閉時,他們很高興。

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • Not just mortgages in place, but interest rates lock.

    不僅抵押貸款到位,而且利率鎖定。

  • And what was the back part of that question, Steve?

    史蒂夫,那個問題的後半部分是什麼?

  • Stephen Kim - Senior MD & Head of Housing Research Team

    Stephen Kim - Senior MD & Head of Housing Research Team

  • It was referring to the single-family rental appetite for newly built homes.

    它指的是對新建房屋的單戶出租需求。

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • So let me say, Steve, that the entire rental market is interesting right now. We've talked a lot over the quarters about housing shortage. The fact is that even as interest rates go up, people still need a place to live, household formation remains strong.

    所以讓我說,史蒂夫,現在整個租賃市場都很有趣。過去幾個季度我們就住房短缺問題談了很多。事實是,即使利率上升,人們仍然需要住所,家庭形成仍然強勁。

  • I know you've covered a lot of these dynamics. And at the end of the day, we're probably going to push more people from homeownership towards rental. That will mean multifamily, traditional multifamily as well as single-family for rent. And I think there's going to be some dynamic shifting that moves around in all of these areas to the extent that we move more people out of home ownership and towards rental, it increases the demand for an already supply-constrained component of the market. That's the rental market, both SFR and traditional rentals.

    我知道你已經涵蓋了很多這些動態。歸根結底,我們可能會推動更多的人從自有住房轉向租房。這將意味著多戶家庭、傳統多戶家庭以及出租單戶家庭。而且我認為在所有這些領域都會發生一些動態變化,以至於我們將更多的人從房屋所有權中轉移到租房中,這增加了對市場中已經供應受限的部分的需求。這就是租賃市場,包括 SFR 和傳統租賃。

  • If you look at rental rates and where they have been moving over the past year, both on the traditional rentals and the single-family for rent, you've seen pretty aggressive movement upward in rental rates. That is a function of limited supply and growing demand.

    如果您查看租金以及過去一年的租金走勢,無論是傳統租金還是單戶租金,您都會看到租金上漲幅度很大。這是供應有限和需求增長的結果。

  • So how this is going to play out as part of what we point to as some of the confusion or some of the question marks that sit out there over the next quarters as the market reconciles to new interest rate environment, rental rates that are moving and shifting.

    因此,這將如何發揮作用,作為我們所指出的一些混亂或一些問號的一部分,隨著市場適應新的利率環境、不斷變化的租金和轉移。

  • And even the SFR buyers are going to have to rethink what their model looks like. They have higher interest rates in their capital stack, but they also are getting higher rental rates from their customers. So we're going to have to see how that plays out.

    甚至 SFR 的購買者也將不得不重新考慮他們的模型是什麼樣的。他們的資本堆棧利率更高,但他們也從客戶那裡獲得更高的租金。所以我們將不得不看看結果如何。

  • Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • And as I said in my comments, Jon and Stuart and I are making daily adjustments to pricing to make sure that we maintain them and those adjustments incorporate what's going on with rents in the single-family communities and the investment buyer.

    正如我在評論中所說,喬恩和斯圖爾特和我每天都在調整定價,以確保我們維持它們,這些調整包括單戶社區和投資買家的租金情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Buck Horne from Raymond James.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Buck Horne。

  • Buck Horne - SVP of Equity Research

    Buck Horne - SVP of Equity Research

  • I wanted to talk a little bit about the pace of starts that you maintained through the second quarter. Just it's interesting that the start space was still well ahead of the absorption pace even as mortgage rates were consistently rising through the quarter.

    我想談談你在第二季度保持的開局速度。有趣的是,即使抵押貸款利率在本季度持續上升,啟動空間仍然遠遠領先於吸收速度。

  • Was that a function of the quality of the traffic you were seeing or that the buyers that you saw coming in the front door in terms of their ability to purchase? Was there some larger thinking in terms of maintaining the starts pace at that elevated run rate?

    這是您所看到的流量質量的函數,還是您看到的進入前門的買家的購買能力?在以較高的運行速度保持起步速度方面是否有一些更大的想法?

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • I think we've noted before, our start pace is primarily a function of an orderly program of building and delivering homes on a recurring basis. Our start pace has been more constrained by the availability of permits and people to actually generate the entitlements and permits that are required in order to start a home. And so you'll see some variability in our starts as we look ahead to our third quarter, we actually see some modest pullback just because the difficulty in getting permits out.

    我想我們之前已經註意到,我們的起步速度主要是定期建造和交付房屋的有序計劃的功能。我們的起步速度更多地受到許可證的可用性和人們實際產生開辦房屋所需的權利和許可證的限制。因此,當我們展望第三季度時,您會看到我們的開局出現了一些變化,我們實際上看到了一些適度的回調,僅僅是因為難以獲得許可。

  • I've said in my comments, and I'll say again, we've been looking at over the past years a supply -- a limited supply of housing across the country. And while the country goes through the interest rate and sales price kind of reconciliation or rebalancing, we're going to continue an orderly start program even as demand moves up and down, we'll adjust pricing in order to get the appropriate amount of deliveries into the system to make up some of the workforce efficiencies that exist in most major markets.

    我在評論中說過,我還要再說一遍,在過去的幾年裡,我們一直在關注供應——全國范圍內的住房供應有限。在國家經歷利率和銷售價格調整或重新平衡的同時,即使需求上下波動,我們仍將繼續有序啟動計劃,我們將調整定價以獲得適當數量的交付到系統中,以彌補大多數主要市場中存在的一些勞動力效率。

  • Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • We've said over the past year is that we will match our sales to our start pace versus the other way around to maintain that orderly discipline as Stuart described. We feel that gives us much better control of our cost inputs and then keeps our machine very efficient.

    在過去的一年裡,我們已經說過,我們將把我們的銷售與我們的起步速度相匹配,而不是相反,以保持 Stuart 所描述的有序紀律。我們認為這使我們能夠更好地控製成本投入,然後保持我們的機器非常高效。

  • Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • The other thing that is behind the numbers is that we've been -- we strategically have, as we've done in the last several quarters, sold our homes later in the construction cycle, which works very effectively in this market because our buyers want to lock their loan closer to the time that they're going to be closing on the home. And as a result, we've limited presales or early sales, which makes the start pace a little bit higher than the sales space.

    數字背後的另一件事是,我們一直 - 正如我們在過去幾個季度所做的那樣,我們在戰略上已經在建設週期的後期出售了我們的房屋,這在這個市場上非常有效,因為我們的買家想在他們將要關閉房屋的時候鎖定他們的貸款。因此,我們限制了預售或早期銷售,這使得啟動速度略高於銷售空間。

  • Buck Horne - SVP of Equity Research

    Buck Horne - SVP of Equity Research

  • Got it. Very helpful. And following up a little bit on the kind of the way the pricing adjustment process works that you're managing through that. It sounds like as we talk with investors, there's still a lot of concern about potential land impairment risks with falling prices from here. But as you work through this, it sounds like all the pricing that you're still looking at is higher on a year-over-year basis. Are there instances where your pricing adjustments are reducing base prices below what the backlog customers might have already paid?

    知道了。非常有幫助。並跟進您正在管理的定價調整過程的工作方式。聽起來,當我們與投資者交談時,仍然有很多人擔心價格從這裡開始下跌可能帶來的土地減值風險。但是當你完成這個工作時,聽起來你仍在關注的所有定價都比去年同期更高。是否存在您的定價調整將基本價格降低到低於積壓客戶可能已經支付的價格的情況?

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • I think it's important to recognize we have virtually no land impairment risk in our backlog. Our margins remain healthy. We remain focused on recognizing that prices are going to move around a little bit, and we'll continue to build efficiencies in the way that we create value for our customers. But our land acquisition model and our land acquisition program has been rock solid. And I think the market is going to have to fall an awful lot for us to start talking about impairments once again. That's a throwback to the last financial crisis. And we just don't -- we have a lot of room in margin, we have a lot of adaptability in our program a long way before we start thinking about impairments.

    我認為重要的是要認識到我們的積壓訂單中幾乎沒有土地減值風險。我們的利潤率保持健康。我們仍然專注於認識到價格會略有波動,我們將繼續以我們為客戶創造價值的方式提高效率。但我們的徵地模式和徵地計劃一直堅如磐石。而且我認為市場將不得不大幅下跌,我們才能再次開始談論減值。這是上一次金融危機的倒退。而且我們只是沒有 - 在我們開始考慮減值之前,我們有很大的餘量空間,我們的程序有很大的適應性。

  • Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • Also very different from last cycle, as I mentioned in my comments, our land strategy's focus has been on really positioning land on a controlled position and structures that can adjust to a changing market environment, which really gives us further insulation from the potential impairments.

    正如我在評論中提到的那樣,與上一個週期也有很大不同,我們的土地戰略的重點是真正將土地定位在可以適應不斷變化的市場環境的受控位置和結構上,這確實使我們進一步免受潛在損害的影響。

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • And the other thing that we've seen with regard to backlog is to the extent in many markets that someone cancels out, we have a replacement buyer because there's such limited available inventory that's ready to close on.

    我們看到的關於積壓的另一件事是,在許多市場上有人取消了,我們有一個替代買家,因為有如此有限的可用庫存準備關閉。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson。

  • Truman Andrew Patterson - Research Analyst

    Truman Andrew Patterson - Research Analyst

  • Just wanted to follow up. May incentives were, I believe, 1.6%. And when I'm thinking through the midpoint of your third quarter orders gas up kind of 4% to 5% year-over-year, pretty healthy in the market, I think, right now, just what sort of incentives or pricing adjustments do you think are needed in the upcoming quarter kind of sequentially to hit that metric? And then also when you're thinking across the 3 buckets of markets, that you mentioned, are there any structural items or reasons that the no impact bucket might not move closer to the second or third tier?

    只是想跟進。我相信,5 月份的激勵措施是 1.6%。當我考慮到你第三季度的中點訂單汽油同比增長 4% 到 5% 時,市場相當健康,我認為,現在,什麼樣的激勵措施或定價調整會起作用您認為在即將到來的季度中需要按順序達到該指標嗎?然後,當您考慮您提到的三個市場桶時,是否有任何結構性項目或原因表明無影響桶可能不會更接近第二或第三層?

  • Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • Of course, to I'd say that the analysis that Rick spoke about in that still we're going to focus on daily is a community-by-community analysis. So it's -- you have to first understand that it's very varied from each community. So even when we speak of a market, that's a broad overview. Within that market, we'll have some communities that are still performing very well and some that need the assistance with incentives or mortgage rate buydowns that were described. And as we said, it's very hard to really look forward as there is this rebalancing between price and interest rates for exactly what incentive will be needed, and that's why it's a regular focus on a community-by-community analysis.

    當然,我想說的是,Rick 談到的分析仍然是我們每天要關注的,是一個社區一個社區的分析。因此,您必須首先了解每個社區的情況非常不同。因此,即使我們談到市場,這也是一個廣泛的概述。在該市場中,我們將有一些社區仍然表現良好,而一些社區需要通過激勵措施或所描述的抵押貸款利率購買來獲得幫助。正如我們所說,很難真正期待,因為價格和利率之間存在這種重新平衡,確切地需要什麼樣的激勵措施,這就是為什麼它經常關注社區分析。

  • Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • And as I said in my opening remarks, our incentives have historically run much higher than the 1.6% level. And as we look forward, there's probably another 0.1% that has been factored into our go-forward look with regard to incentives. And as Jon said that, that could be 0% in some markets and a little bit higher in others.

    正如我在開場白中所說,我們的激勵措施歷來遠高於 1.6% 的水平。正如我們展望的那樣,我們在激勵方面的前瞻性展望中可能還考慮了另外 0.1%。正如喬恩所說,這在某些市場可能為 0%,而在其他市場則更高一些。

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • Yes. But look, I'd even say don't let the 1% to be a boundary or a limitation. I think the fact is you're right now hearing from a group that is looking at these numbers real-time on a market-by-market basis, and it is changing and evolving in a variety of markets. The tipping point from a Tier 1 to a Tier 2 to a Tier 3 market, as Rick properly described them, it is a matter of timing and it's a matter of supply within that market. And the confidence level that's embedded in that market, very hard to anticipate and you don't really get a warning sign before you see it. So you're really hearing the -- or you're seeing the picture kind of like a balance sheet, a snapshot of where we are today. Tomorrow, it could move a little bit one way or the other.

    是的。但是看,我什至會說不要讓 1% 成為邊界或限制。我認為事實是你現在聽到一個小組正在逐個市場實時查看這些數字,並且它在各種市場中不斷變化和發展。正如 Rick 正確描述的那樣,從一級市場到二級市場再到三級市場的臨界點是時間問題,也是該市場內的供應問題。以及嵌入該市場的信心水平,很難預料,在你看到它之前你並沒有真正得到警告信號。所以你真的聽到了 - 或者你看到的圖片有點像資產負債表,是我們今天所處位置的快照。明天,它可能會以某種方式移動一點。

  • Truman Andrew Patterson - Research Analyst

    Truman Andrew Patterson - Research Analyst

  • Yes. Yes. No, I understood. And clearly, you all are maintaining elevated absorptions to drive returns. But next question on your old shift in your land bank has been pretty dramatic over the past several years. And option or controlled lots are now up to 62% this quarter.

    是的。是的。不,我明白了。很明顯,你們都在保持較高的吸收率以推動回報。但是,在過去幾年中,關於您在土地儲備中的舊轉變的下一個問題非常引人注目。本季度期權或受控地塊現在高達 62%。

  • I'm trying to understand whether there's been any shifts in the land market the past couple of months from either your land developers or land bank partners' willingness to option deals, change in terms, competition, et cetera, that by year-end, is that kind of 65% metric maybe kind of cap the cycle?

    我試圖了解過去幾個月土地市場是否有任何變化,無論是您的土地開發商還是土地銀行合作夥伴願意選擇交易、條款變化、競爭等,到年底,這種 65% 的指標可能會限制週期嗎?

  • Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • Looks just like for us, this is all happening in real time on that same evaluation now happens with our relationships. But to date, there's been willingness to proceed to acquire assets that are properly underwritten. And I think as we sit here knowing what we know now, we have a good deal of confidence that we'll -- we get at that 65% target. But like with everything, we have to see how things evolve where the market goes to.

    對我們來說,這一切都是實時發生的,同樣的評估現在發生在我們的關係上。但迄今為止,人們願意繼續收購經過適當承保的資產。而且我認為,當我們坐在這裡知道我們現在所知道的時,我們有很大的信心——我們會達到 65% 的目標。但就像所有事情一樣,我們必須看看市場走向何方。

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • We have a couple of strategies embedded in our land program. First of all, we have some really comprehensive relationships with some of the land developers. I think we moved in sync and everybody understands that sometimes markets move up, we all make money together. Sometimes markets move down, we all shift and adjust to market conditions.

    我們在土地計劃中嵌入了一些策略。首先,我們與一些土地開發商有一些非常全面的關係。我認為我們同步移動,每個人都明白有時市場會上漲,我們都一起賺錢。有時市場會下跌,我們都會調整併適應市場狀況。

  • I think that's not a difference in the land development world. It's exactly the way that we've constructed our land development world. Additionally, Jon properly pointed out that our land strategy's component of our Quarterra ultimately, asset management business is a really important structural change for the company. We've built in elasticity in that program really to be able to act as a shock absorber as we go through the ups and downs of market conditions. And I think it's one of the more important structural changes that will provide stability for our land programming as we go through the years. And so this is something that we've been focusing on, anticipating gyrations of movements in the homebuilding world and building land strategies that are flexible for times just like these.

    我認為這在土地開發領域沒有什麼不同。這正是我們構建土地開發世界的方式。此外,Jon 恰當地指出,我們的 Quarterra 土地戰略的組成部分,資產管理業務最終對公司來說是一個非常重要的結構性變化。我們在該計劃中建立了彈性,真正能夠在我們經歷市場條件的起伏時充當減震器。我認為這是更重要的結構變化之一,它將為我們多年來的土地規劃提供穩定性。所以這是我們一直關注的事情,預測住宅建築領域的變化,並建立在這樣的時代靈活的土地戰略。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

  • Alan S. Ratner - MD

    Alan S. Ratner - MD

  • First question, I guess, really helpful kind of bucketing those markets there in terms of the ones that you're seeing maybe more of an impact versus others. I'm curious in the bucket with the 7 where you have been more aggressive on incentivizing and reducing prices. Are you able to quantify what the margin impact from all of those various actions you've taken is on the orders you've placed in June vis-a-vis what maybe deliveries were or orders were earlier in the year? I'm just trying to figure out, you kind of mentioned all the tools you're pulling, but it's hard to tell exactly what the margin impact might be in those various buckets at this point?

    第一個問題,我想,就你所看到的可能對其他市場產生更大影響的市場而言,將這些市場分到那裡真的很有幫助。我很好奇你在激勵和降低價格方面更加積極的7。您是否能夠量化您所採取的所有這些不同行動對您在 6 月下達的訂單相對於今年早些時候的交付量或訂單量的利潤率影響?我只是想弄清楚,您提到了您要使用的所有工具,但是目前很難準確地說出這些不同存儲桶中的利潤影響可能是什麼?

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • It's why we've given broad boundaries and instead of guidance, we don't want to guess because there are a lot of moving parts, a lot of them. They're the obvious ones like lumber prices and realtor costs and a variety of things that we can put our finger on. But then there's also operating leverage and where ASP is going to go and a variety of things. We know that we're trying to aim for a moving target, and that target is moving in ways that we can't always anticipate.

    這就是為什麼我們給出了廣泛的界限,而不是指導,我們不想猜測,因為有很多活動的部分,很多。它們是顯而易見的,例如木材價格和房地產經紀人成本以及我們可以關注的各種事情。但是還有運營槓桿以及 ASP 的去向以及各種各樣的事情。我們知道我們正試圖瞄準一個移動的目標,而這個目標正在以我們無法預料的方式移動。

  • So the answer to your question is we're not quite sure yet. We've tried to give some boundaries as to what we see coming up in the third quarter, and we're going to address the fourth quarter as we get closer to it and see what that landscape looks like, Alan, to get more granular than that would be a series of guesses, but I don't think brings any of us closer to something that's actionable.

    所以你的問題的答案是我們還不太確定。我們試圖為我們在第三季度看到的情況給出一些界限,隨著我們越來越接近第四季度,我們將解決第四季度的問題,看看情況是什麼樣的,艾倫,以獲得更詳細的信息這將是一系列猜測,但我認為不會讓我們中的任何人更接近可操作的東西。

  • Alan S. Ratner - MD

    Alan S. Ratner - MD

  • Okay. I appreciate that, Stuart. I know it's certainly a moving target here. Second, congrats on the land strategy shift and the execution there, getting the option share higher. I guess just from a bigger picture standpoint, when you think about the land market and you think about your land portfolio, your lot count is up about 70% over the last 2 years, and that growth has come entirely through option deals as the owned piece has shrunk a bit. Your closings this year are going to be up about 25% over that 2-year time period. And you're talking about wanting to maintain a start pace. So even if we kind of assume that through this choppier period here, you're able to maintain volume.

    好的。我很感激,斯圖爾特。我知道這肯定是一個移動的目標。其次,祝賀土地戰略轉變和執行,獲得更高的期權份額。我想從更大的角度來看,當您考慮土地市場並考慮您的土地投資組合時,您的地塊數量在過去 2 年中增加了約 70%,並且這種增長完全來自作為自有企業的期權交易一塊縮小了一點。在這 2 年的時間裡,您今年的成交量將增加約 25%。你說的是要保持起步速度。因此,即使我們假設在這段動蕩的時期,您也可以保持成交量。

  • It doesn't seem to me at least that there's a real reason why you would need 70% more lots under control and recognizing a lot of that is off balance sheet. There's still a fair amount of capital tying up that land, which is on your balance sheet. And presumably, when you kind of move forward on deciding whether to take down these deals, you're going to have to make that decision.

    至少在我看來,你需要控制 70% 以上的批次並認識到其中很多是在資產負債表外的,這似乎沒有真正的原因。仍然有相當數量的資本佔用了這塊土地,這在你的資產負債表上。大概,當你決定是否取消這些交易時,你將不得不做出這個決定。

  • So how are you thinking about tying up incremental land today? Have you slowed the pace of acquisitions? And does it make sense at this point to maybe walk away from some of those deals if the market at best is maybe more flattish from a volume standpoint for the near term or intermediate term?

    那麼,您今天如何考慮佔用增量土地?是否放慢了收購步伐?如果從近期或中期的交易量的角度來看,市場充其量可能更加平淡,那麼在這一點上放棄其中一些交易是否有意義?

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • Look, Alan, I think you know, you've been around us and the business for a long time. Land is the most complicated and difficult part of the strategic composition of a homebuilder. And we have spent -- we, at Lennar, have spent tremendous hours thinking about land strategies and how we can have -- how do we create greater visibility to our future without greater risk to our balance sheet. And that has very much been the balance that we've migrated over these 2 years.

    聽著,艾倫,我想你知道,你在我們身邊和這個行業已經很長時間了。土地是房屋建築商戰略構成中最複雜和最困難的部分。我們已經花費了 - 我們在 Lennar 花費了大量時間來思考土地戰略以及我們如何能夠擁有 - 我們如何在不給資產負債錶帶來更大風險的情況下提高對未來的可見性。這在很大程度上是我們在這 2 年中遷移的平衡。

  • It's what we're most enthusiastic about as it relates to our land strategies vertical in Quarterra, the ability to tie up more land to give us more visibility, but to do it in ways where we have maximum flexibility, the ability to, as you say, if the market changes in a dramatic fashion, we can pull back or renegotiate or reposition some of the longer-dated strategies, the shorter-dated strategies are going to be more durable and we'll be able to just build through.

    這是我們最感興趣的,因為它與我們在 Quarterra 的垂直土地戰略有關,能夠佔用更多土地以提高我們的知名度,但要以我們具有最大靈活性的方式進行,有能力,就像你比如說,如果市場發生劇烈變化,我們可以撤回或重新談判或重新定位一些長期策略,短期策略將更加持久,我們將能夠堅持下去。

  • So what we've done is we've bifurcated our thinking around land into short, medium and long-term buckets. And we have carefully crafted flexible programs so that we can enhance our visibility and reduce the risk to balance sheet and enhance flexibility in doing so. And I think that's what you're seeing evolve with our company. You look at our balance sheet today. It is as strong as it's ever -- it's stronger than it's ever been, and the visibility to land only benefits our future.

    所以我們所做的就是將我們對土地的思考分為短期、中期和長期。我們精心製定了靈活的計劃,以便我們可以提高我們的知名度,降低資產負債表的風險,並提高這樣做的靈活性。我認為這就是你所看到的隨著我們公司的發展。你看看我們今天的資產負債表。它比以往任何時候都強大——它比以往任何時候都強大,而陸地的能見度只會有利於我們的未來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

  • Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

    Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to just circle back also to the bucketing of the different markets, and appreciate all that detail. It's extremely helpful. I wanted to get a sense of in the second and third bucket as a percent of sales, perhaps, what have those price adjustments been? And -- or if you could talk about it perhaps on a net pricing basis, inclusive of incentives. And is it fair to just anticipate that those adjustments would flow through into the fourth quarter?

    我還想回到不同市場的分類,並欣賞所有這些細節。這非常有幫助。我想了解第二和第三桶佔銷售額的百分比,也許,這些價格調整是什麼?而且 - 或者如果您可以在淨定價的基礎上談論它,包括激勵措施。僅僅預期這些調整將持續到第四季度是否公平?

  • Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Richard Beckwitt - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • Well, as I said in my remarks, we're adjusting pricing on a home-by-home basis. And in many of these markets, net pricing and gross pricing is up 40% to 50% over the year ago period. So it takes relatively modest price adjustments to move the needle in order to spur some activity in these markets. What buyers are really focused on right now is just sticker shock.

    好吧,正如我在講話中所說,我們正在逐個調整定價。在許多這些市場中,淨定價和總定價比去年同期增長了 40% 至 50%。因此,為了刺激這些市場的一些活動,需要進行相對適度的價格調整來推動市場的發展。買家現在真正關注的只是貼紙衝擊。

  • There's been an increase in mortgage rates, and that combined with the economic headwinds, people just are concerned, are they making the right decision at this point in time. The reality is that the markets have very limited inventory. We're seeing rent growth in all of these markets. So folks are really just trying to make sure that they don't feel that when they talk to their neighbor that there's a downward pull. So people are working through the process. They understand that values have adjusted.

    抵押貸款利率有所上升,再加上經濟逆風,人們只是擔心,他們是否在這個時間點做出了正確的決定。現實情況是,市場的庫存非常有限。我們看到所有這些市場的租金都在增長。所以人們真的只是想確保他們在與鄰居交談時不會感覺到有向下的拉力。所以人們正在完成這個過程。他們明白價值觀已經調整。

  • And in the overall mix of the composition of our company as a -- on a global margin basis, these are very small percentage changes. And what you've seen is us factoring those into the go-forward guidance.

    在我們公司構成的整體組合中 - 在全球利潤率的基礎上,這些百分比變化非常小。你所看到的是我們將這些因素納入前進指導。

  • Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • Just none point of clarification, as Rick has mentioned earlier, it's a combination of mortgage rate assistance and form of buydowns, for commitments, arms combined with some price adjustments. So the mortgage component is a very important component as you deal with. As Stuart mentioned earlier, people buy monthly payments. So we really -- in most of the markets in the second 2 buckets, you don't see much in the way of price adjustments versus a combination of mortgage rate help with a smaller price adjustment.

    只是沒有一點澄清,正如里克之前提到的,它是抵押貸款利率援助和買斷形式的組合,用於承諾、武器和一些價格調整。所以抵押貸款部分是你處理的一個非常重要的部分。正如斯圖爾特之前提到的,人們購買每月付款。所以我們真的 - 在後兩個類別的大多數市場中,您看不到價格調整的方式與抵押貸款利率幫助與較小的價格調整相結合的方式。

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • And I just want to correct my partner, Rick and just say downward pull was a little severe. I think a greater pull was a little bit...

    我只是想糾正我的搭檔 Rick 並說下拉有點嚴重。我認為更大的吸引力是一點點......

  • Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

    Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

  • I appreciate that. And just for clarity, also, some of those mortgage rates, either adjustments or areas of help. Just to understand that would also flow through the cost of goods sold or impact the gross margin as opposed to the financial services line. Just wanted to make sure we understood that.

    我很感激。為了清楚起見,還有一些抵押貸款利率,無論是調整還是幫助領域。只是要了解,這也將通過銷售商品成本流動或影響毛利率,而不是金融服務線。只是想確保我們理解這一點。

  • But my second question is also kind of shifts to the Quarterra spin by the end of the year. And just -- I guess you said that you would expect $2.5 billion of assets to come off Lennar's balance sheet. If you could give us any sense of what the total amount of either -- any additional detail around Quarterra itself in terms of total assets under management, and obviously, you have the different businesses. Any type of review or update would be helpful there.

    但我的第二個問題也是在年底前轉向 Quarterra 旋轉。只是——我猜你說過你會期望 25 億美元的資產從 Lennar 的資產負債表中脫落。如果你能告訴我們兩者的總量是多少——就管理的總資產而言,關於 Quarterra 本身的任何其他細節,顯然,你有不同的業務。任何類型的審查或更新都會有幫助。

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • So we're not giving regular updates on Quarterra just yet, and I don't want to get locked in that bucket. But I think we've given some boundaries in our past calls as to assets under management relative to Quarterra. I don't want to give you a number right now. I don't have it at my fingertips.

    所以我們現在還沒有定期更新 Quarterra,我不想被鎖在那個桶裡。但我認為我們在過去的電話會議中對相對於 Quarterra 的管理資產給出了一些界限。我現在不想給你一個號碼。我沒有它在我的指尖。

  • But what I did say is an additional $2.5 billion over time. I think Jon highlighted some of the migration and some of our land assets through our land Strategies program. But we've really seen quite a lot of assets come off our balance sheet already relative to our Quarterra verticals and the way they have developed over the past couple of years. I think as we move forward, we're going to continue to see our land strategies program really continue to develop. And that will benefit Quarterra. It will also benefit Lennar.

    但我所說的是隨著時間的推移額外增加 25 億美元。我認為喬恩通過我們的土地戰略計劃強調了一些移民和我們的一些土地資產。但是,相對於我們的 Quarterra 垂直領域以及它們在過去幾年的發展方式,我們確實已經看到相當多的資產從我們的資產負債表中脫離出來。我認為隨著我們的前進,我們將繼續看到我們的土地戰略計劃真正繼續發展。這將使 Quarterra 受益。這也將使 Lennar 受益。

  • But the $2.5 billion that I've highlighted is additional to the dollars that have already been -- that have already migrated from Lennar balance sheet to the Quarterra private equity components. And Mike, what was the first part of your second question?

    但我強調的 25 億美元是對已經從 Lennar 資產負債表轉移到 Quarterra 私募股權組成部分的美元的補充。邁克,你第二個問題的第一部分是什麼?

  • Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

    Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. No, it's just a clarification or a follow-up to your -- the answer to my first question on mortgage buydowns or adjustments, the mortgage component, where that flows through on the income statement if it's the Financial Services or the...

    是的。不,這只是對您的澄清或後續行動-回答我關於抵押貸款購買或調整的第一個問題,抵押貸款部分,如果是金融服務或...

  • Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • Cost of sales, Mike.

    銷售成本,邁克。

  • Why don't we take one more question.

    我們為什麼不再問一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question comes from Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

    我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

  • Susan Marie Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Marie Maklari - Analyst

  • My first question is, you commented that you have seen some relative improvement in the supply chain, and it feels like we are maybe at or coming off of the peak there. Can you give a bit more color in terms of what you're seeing on that side? And obviously, as the demand does shift and moderate a bit, how you're thinking of the further improvement that can come through there?

    我的第一個問題是,您評論說您已經看到供應鏈的一些相對改善,感覺我們可能正處於或即將結束那裡的高峰。就你在那邊看到的東西而言,你能提供更多的顏色嗎?顯然,隨著需求確實發生了變化並有所緩和,您如何看待那裡可以實現的進一步改進?

  • Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

    Jonathan M. Jaffe - Co-CEO, Co-President & Director

  • Relative to the second part of your question, as always, there's a lag between any shift in market and a shift in what's going through in terms of construction volume as the construction trades and the supply chain built through the backlog that's under construction.

    相對於您問題的第二部分,與往常一樣,市場的任何變化與建築量的變化之間存在滯後,因為建築貿易和通過正在建設中的積壓而建立的供應鏈。

  • Relative to what we're seeing, as I said in my comments, there's still disruptions but both we and our suppliers are much better positioned today. Everyone has learned a lot over the last 2 years and are able to respond very quickly to solving problems. We're at the earlier parts of the pandemic and disruptions, it sometimes could take months to solve problems. They're not being resolved in days.

    正如我在評論中所說,相對於我們所看到的情況,仍然存在中斷,但我們和我們的供應商今天的定位要好得多。在過去的 2 年中,每個人都學到了很多東西,並且能夠非常快速地響應解決問題。我們正處於大流行和中斷的早期階段,有時可能需要數月才能解決問題。他們沒有在幾天內得到解決。

  • And the 2 areas where there are still ongoing shortages is really in electrical equipment and in flex duct. But even those, we're in close communication with our trade partners that supply that they've got all the visibility in terms of what our needs are for the coming quarters and it's a very close working relationship.

    仍然持續短缺的兩個領域是電氣設備和柔性管道。但即便如此,我們也在與我們的貿易夥伴保持密切溝通,他們提供了關於我們對未來幾個季度的需求的所有可見性,這是一種非常密切的工作關係。

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • The resolution of supply chain issues is not so much as the supply chain has gotten easier. It's that we've figured out and worked hard to manage it better. We have the residual impact of the fact that our cycle time still remains a sticky kind of larger version of itself. So it's still taking us longer to produce a home, which is inefficient and a derivative of supply chain management.

    供應鏈問題的解決與其說是供應鏈變得更容易。這是我們已經弄清楚並努力工作以更好地管理它。我們的循環時間仍然是一種粘性較大的版本,這一事實對我們產生了剩餘影響。因此,我們仍然需要更長的時間來生產房屋,這是效率低下並且是供應鏈管理的衍生產品。

  • Susan Marie Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Marie Maklari - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful color. My follow-up question is when you do think about balance sheet and uses of cash in general? You noted that you did buy back some stock in the second quarter. As things do moderate but you continue to pursue your strategy around land and this spin of Quarterra and all these other efforts that you've been working on, how do you think of uses of cash and especially maybe shareholder returns in a more moderate housing environment?

    好的。這是有用的顏色。我的後續問題是你什麼時候考慮資產負債表和現金的一般用途?您注意到您確實在第二季度回購了一些股票。隨著情況趨於緩和,但您繼續圍繞土地和Quartra的這種旋轉以及您一直在努力的所有其他努力追求您的戰略,您如何看待現金的使用,尤其是在更溫和的住房環境中可能的股東回報?

  • Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

    Stuart A. Miller - Executive Chairman

  • Well, here's the positive thing about what's happened at Lennar is over the past years, we've had terrific prosperity, and we've used those moments not to sit back on our laurels but instead to really focus on enhancing our business model. We've refined the cost of operation. We focused on cash generation. We've built models that limit inventory and limit the exposure to land on our balance sheet and it enables us to generate a tremendous amount of cash.

    嗯,關於 Lennar 過去幾年發生的事情,有一個積極的方面是,我們取得了巨大的繁榮,我們利用這些時刻不是坐以待斃,而是真正專注於提升我們的商業模式。我們已經優化了運營成本。我們專注於現金產生。我們已經建立了限制庫存和限制資產負債表上土地風險的模型,它使我們能夠產生大量現金。

  • We expect to continue to think very much the same way as we go forward that we're going to be positioning our company with land visibility that enables us to continue to build our business in an orderly fashion. We expect to continue to pay down debt. We expect to continue to opportunistically buy back stock. And we have the capital on the balance sheet to be able to do that, even while we're spending $2.5 billion of additional capital from Quarterra, so -- with Quarterra. So I think that we are in an enviable position of strength, we said so at the end of our press release and in my comments, and that position of strength at times like this is a great way to be positioned and to deal with the market condition.

    我們希望在前進的過程中繼續以非常相似的方式思考,我們將為公司定位土地可見度,使我們能夠繼續以有序的方式建立我們的業務。我們預計將繼續償還債務。我們預計將繼續機會性地回購股票。而且我們在資產負債表上擁有能夠做到這一點的資本,即使我們從 Quarterra 花費了 25 億美元的額外資本,所以 - 與 Quarterra。所以我認為我們處於令人羨慕的實力地位,我們在新聞稿結束時和我的評論中這麼說,在這樣的時候,這種實力地位是定位和應對市場的好方法健康)狀況。

  • So I think that's a good off-road, good time to wrap up. Let me say that we, as a group, as a management group, are happy to have our partner, Rick back in the fold after his bout with COVID last week. He was manned down for a few days, but the company was still able to operate without losing a step. But now we're at full strength. And we look forward to reporting back at the end of the third quarter, hopefully, with a bit more certainty. Thank you, everyone.

    所以我認為這是一個很好的越野,是結束的好時機。讓我說,作為一個團隊,作為一個管理團隊,我們很高興我們的合作夥伴 Rick 在上週與 COVID 的較量後重返賽場。他被安排了幾天,但公司仍然能夠在不失步子的情況下運作。但現在我們全力以赴。我們期待在第三季度末進行報告,希望有更多的確定性。謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your line, and please enjoy the rest of your day.

    今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開您的線路,並請享受您剩下的一天。